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$SKY has recently pulled back, but I am more focused on the buyback mechanism behind it.
Sky Protocol uses part of the protocol surplus to buy back SKY.
According to public buyback data, the buyback amount in the past 30 days was about $5.02 million, an increase of about 114% compared to the previous 30 days.
But don't rush to bottom-fish.
SKY just hit an all-time high on October 5, then retraced about 21% from the high, showing significant short-term volatility.
Entry: $0.0815–$0.0825 (after regaining stability)
Take profit: $0.0845 / $0.0870 / $0.0904 / $0.0949 / $0.1000
Stop loss: $0.0770
What I want to see is not the pullback itself, but whether the price can regain and hold the key level. Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, is pushing to bring crypto trading to over 100 million people.
What truly makes this news worth watching is not just the "100 million" figure, but who is opening the door to Crypto.
100 million people is no longer a niche market; it is a nationwide retail financial network.
If a major bank integrates crypto trading directly into its financial system, the identity of crypto assets begins to change: from an "alternative investment" to a type of financial product accessible to ordinary users.
In the past, Crypto customer acquisition relied on exchanges, airdrops, and KOLs. Now, if banks provide direct access, the driver of adoption may no longer be retail enthusiasm but the bank's own client network, balance sheet, and customer acquisition capabilities.
But note:
Being able to trade does not equal free trading.
Entering the banking system means traffic, but also risk control, custody, and regulatory rules.
The wider the door opens, the clearer the rules usually become.
Popularization solves "who can come in," but the real question is: who holds the key?Recently, Bitcoin entered a pullback, dropping below 83000, and everyone is paying attention to the subsequent trend.
Previously, we analyzed that during a bull market, there are many false breakdowns during each pullback, meaning fake breakouts downward.
As shown in the chart, there were false breakdowns of ETH in March and June 2023,
and also false breakdowns of ETH in June and August 2025.
Each time, there is a large bearish candle breaking through the support area by 5%-10%,
followed by a small candle the next day, and then a big bullish candle on the third day that recovers the price.
So these past two days are a critical observation period. If today there is no further big drop and a small candle closes, and tomorrow a big bullish candle appears, then it confirms a false breakdown, and the hope for a continued strong rally is very high.
If the market moves opposite to our expectation and continues to fall, then it will only enter a new consolidation range.
Also, we talked before about risk rebalancing.
Some time ago, when UNI was around 8, I reduced about 15% of my position and switched to BNB and SOL.
After reducing the position, UNI continued to surge, reaching 10. At that time, I thought I sold too early and at a loss, but unexpectedly, UNI has now dropped below 8, while BNB and SOL helped me withstand the big drop.
This makes me more convinced that whenever altcoins overheat, do risk rebalancing: reduce part of your position and switch to mainstream coins. Even if you miss short-term gains, it is absolutely the right move for long-term performance.
Just like during the popular staking mining in 2024, I staked some ETH to earn rewards. I split the rewarded tokens into two parts: one part was directly converted to Bitcoin regardless of Bitcoin’s price, and the other part was held to see the long-term price.
The result was clear: those tokens held for rewards would only end up worthless, while converting to Bitcoin at the same time doubled the profit.
Therefore, when the next market boom comes, the altcoins you hold will definitely surge, and everyone will be happy, but you must resist and firmly reduce part of your position to switch to mainstream coins. Don’t fear that mainstream coins are expensive, because they will be even more expensive in the future, beyond your imagination and very resilient to drops.
If you hold a heavy position in a good altcoin like UNI or AAVE, you won’t make it to the end of the bull market; you will likely be washed out. The heavier your position as it rises, the smaller your position becomes, and you will miss out on the final excess returns.Hot Coin Data Ranking｜Last 15 Minutes
$CAP surged with increased volume, positions decreased, and buying and selling were close in the final stage. Trading volume was 266,000 USDT, 3.4 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour; position volume decreased by 0.38%. Active buying in the final stage was 43.0%, with the price in this segment up by 0.85%.The Federal Reserve reveals one thing: Crypto is competing with AI for money
The minutes triggered a round of leverage liquidation: Bitcoin slid from 85,300 to 83,500 in 20 minutes, with 124,000 liquidations in 24 hours totaling over $700 million, more than 90% of which were long positions.
The real new signal is this sentence: The Federal Reserve linked AI investment to inflation for the first time — data centers competing for electricity, chips, and talent, all driving up costs. Institutions are also choosing sides: 65% of family offices are betting on AI, while only 17% favor crypto.
With a risk-free return of 5.36%, crypto not only has to compete with the Federal Reserve but also with AI for money. $BTC📊 SOL/USDT Quick Prediction
* Current Price: $SOL 115.23
* Support: $SOL 114.19
* Resistance: $120.00
🔮 Short Prediction
Selling tests $115.23. If bulls hold the $114.19 low, expect a bounce back to $120.00.
📊 ATH Context
After peaking at $124.96, today's price near $115.23 is a healthy consolidation. Historically, SOL retests support before moving higher.
Back to $124.96 or lower? 👇
#SOL #Solana #Crypto #Trading #SOLUSDT Greece has proposed its first national crypto asset tax plan, intending to tax crypto earnings exceeding 500 euros per year at a rate of 10%.
But what’s truly worth noting is not the 10% figure, but the 500-euro threshold.
Earnings below 500 euros per year are currently not taxed under this plan. Behind this design lies a very practical line: small earnings are not worth investing too many regulatory resources, but once a certain scale is reached, crypto earnings officially enter the tax system.
Looking at the EU, the logic is also very clear.
MiCA is unifying market rules for crypto assets, but taxation is still mainly determined by individual member states. Thus, regulation is extending from trading, issuance, and licensing further into earnings and taxation.
This means crypto assets are gradually moving from a “gray area” into the formal tax base.
What really deserves attention is not how much tax is collected today, but where the tax net is expanding to.Core‑BTCFi（比特币金融） BTCFi就是Core整套叙事：把沉睡的BTC释放流动性，做比特币原生DeFi，依靠Satoshi‑Plus混合共识，继承比特币算力安全，同时拥有EVM智能合约能力 。 整套体系主要几块：BTC非托管质押、流动质押LstBTC、借贷Colend、支付SatPay、BTC原生DEX/衍生品。 ✅BTCFi亮点（看多逻辑） 1. 非托管BTC质押是最大卖点 利用比特币CLTV时间锁，用户BTC不用转给第三方托管，BTC还在比特币链上锁定，就可以参与Core网络质押拿CORE奖励，区别于WBTC/cBTC这类托管封装BTC。 推出LstBTC流动质押凭证，质押BTC之后拿到链上凭证，可以继续去DeFi做借贷、交易，解决质押锁仓失去流动性的痛点。 2. 安全叙事：借用比特币大量算力做网络共识，主打“比特币级安全的DeFi”，EVM兼容，普通EVM开发者可以迁移过来做BTCFi应用 。 3. 产品蓝图完整：质押‑借贷‑交易‑现实支付（SatPay借记卡），希望形成闭环；官方希望通过手续费、借贷利息收入，用来回购CORE，构建代币飞轮。 4. 赛道红OKXICE has filed with the SEC for a 24/7 tokenized U.S. stock trading platform, initially targeting more than 60 companies.
This could push blockchain-based markets closer to traditional finance.
#OKX #Tokenization #RWA #CryptoStill holding a 20x long position, floating loss of 5500U, but I remain calm!
This market move is indeed fierce! BTC dipped to a low of 81867, ETH dropped to 2541, SOL smashed down near 114, bulls were repeatedly shaken out, and panic sentiment continues to release.
However, I believe that after the sharp drop, there is already some short-term recovery opportunity.
$BTC: Back near 83100, with support at the low. Holding above 83000, looking up to 83600—84600; if it breaks below 81800, beware of a second dip.
$ETH: Temporarily stabilizing near 2540, breaking through 2600 could lead to a recovery toward 2650, key support at 2540.
$SOL: Rebound near 114, retaking 117—119 is needed to have a chance to challenge 120—123.
My view: Panic has partially released, but a rebound does not equal a reversal. Continue to watch the three long positions, and risk must be controlled even with 20x leverage.
While others panic, I stay calm! Whether this golden pit can be climbed out of remains to be seen!
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位
$BTC $ETH $SOL A whale with a 75% win rate has opened a $33 million $BTC short position with 40x leverage.
What does he know?Lido is going to do lending on its own.
It announced Lido Lend: a lending protocol built on Morpho, specifically serving ETH staking loops, aiming to launch in Q4 this year.
Staking loops essentially involve using staked assets as collateral to borrow assets, then staking again to form a leverage loop. Previously, this lending layer mainly relied on third-party protocols.
Now the largest staking service provider is stepping in personally.
Among the design goals currently given by Lido, two details are worth noting: collateral screening and "reliable exit."
Because the real risk of staking loops is not just how much can be borrowed, but whether one can exit smoothly during severe market fluctuations.
However, the DAO vote has not yet taken place, technical details have not been disclosed, and Q4 is only the target time, so it cannot be considered a product that has already launched.
But if it is ultimately implemented, it means the lending layer of staking loops may shift from third-party infrastructure to a core link controlled by Lido itself.
Leverage is easy to add; the real difficulty is exiting; and whoever controls the exit rules controls part of the infrastructure's discourse power.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Today's follow-up question: What are the three conditions you must meet before opening a position?
1. Principal: Preferably not my own funds, so I can use it without worries;
2. Trend: For assets without volatility, volume alone is useless because I don't have the trading skills for that;
3. Market Cap: Only trade mainstream coins that have heat, at least with no obvious signs of manipulation by big players.😄BTC's maximum pain point is 84,000, how should we view the options expiration tomorrow?
Tomorrow, October 9, about 22,000 BTC options will expire, with a notional value of approximately $1.84 billion. Including ETH, the total expiring options amount to about $2.16 billion. These figures were disclosed on October 8 and may be adjusted after position changes.
The maximum pain point is calculated based on open interest and corresponds to the strike price where the total intrinsic value for buyers is the lowest at expiration. It can only be used as a reference and does not prove that BTC will definitely rise to or stay at 84,000 tomorrow.
These Deribit options expire at 4 PM Beijing time tomorrow, with the settlement price based on the weighted average index price from 3:30 PM to 4:00 PM, not the last second quote.
If BTC returns near 84,000, whether spot trading volume can keep up and whether it can maintain after expiration are key. A brief surge followed by a drop is completely different in significance from a strong volume-supported hold.
I will treat 84,000 as an observation level.
Volatility before expiration can be observed, but to truly judge strength or weakness, we need to see if buying pressure continues after settlement.Still optimistic about $UNI
Previously, when UNI was at $9 with a market cap of 8 billion, I thought the valuation was too high. But now that it has dropped to around $7.8, a 30% pullback from the high, the cost-performance ratio is gradually showing up, so my view is starting to turn positive.
Many times, fundamentals are one thing, and whether the price is at a high level is another. I will dynamically adjust my view based on price changes.
Recently, UNI has fallen quite badly, and many people have started to be bearish, thinking that UNI is too deeply tied to the Robinhood chain, and once the RH chain cools off, UNI will be done for.
But I don't think so.
From another perspective, UNI is increasingly like the token we've been looking for that can truly capture TradFi on-chain cash flow.
Now Uniswap trading fees can already be returned to UNI through burning. Later, if Circle Arc's v2/v3/v4 trading fees are also integrated, then the trading growth of stablecoins, institutional assets, and tokenized assets on Arc could all potentially convert into continuous UNI burns.
We can't prematurely hype how much revenue Arc can bring yet, so going forward, just focus on three things:
Arc trading volume → fees → actual UNI burn.
There are some signs of accumulation on the whale side, but overall holdings are still below early September levels, so it's not yet a full reconsolidation. More adjustment is needed while waiting for the big whales to accumulate at the bottom.Someone opened a $ETH long position worth up to $145 million, with 8x leverage.
They are only $115 away from liquidation.Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety. When the market was just crashing in the morning session, $DASH still pretended to push upward, but every surge lacked strength, volume didn’t keep up, and the resistance above was too obvious. I went short directly, no hesitation.
Entered at 60.37, exited at 54.18, +206.39% nailed it. The big profit was worth the wait; this trend didn’t even require me to think, my account was dancing on its own.
Closed 80% first, kept 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don’t let the gains turn uncomfortable.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they’re the smartest. Even if you only make one point, as long as you take it away, it’s yours; any floating profit beyond that belongs to the market.
For friends who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to chase shorts, wait until the next rebound weakens before acting. I will notify you immediately when the next opportunity comes, stay tuned.
$ZEC $DOGE From 2017 to 2025, I made quite a bit of money. If I had held on, I would have been financially free by now, but basically, I lost it all. I made money through luck and dividends, lost it through skill and ignorance, and accumulated a lot of experience and painful lessons.
First, never involve anyone else in investments or startups unless it's a mutually beneficial exchange. From 2021 to 2025, I brought a friend into the crypto space and advised him to put his main position into Bitcoin and Ethereum. He didn't listen and sought to get rich quick by buying altcoins, lost all his principal, and even borrowed from online loans. I felt a bit guilty and compensated part of his loss. I realized that bringing others into investments means if I profit, it has nothing to do with me, but if they lose, I have to cover the loss. It's harmful and not beneficial, so I won't do it again.
Second, don't flaunt wealth; always stay low-key, or others will envy and hate you. People might ask to borrow money from you, set traps to scam you, or recommend all kinds of messy investments that ultimately damage your principal and cause losses.
Finally, never overspend. Save the money you earn and keep rolling it like a snowball, rather than spending it on buying houses or cars and splurging wildly. At the end of 2020, I didn't have much money yet, just starting out, but I spent all my money on an expensive house with a mortgage. It was equivalent to overspending; the seed I had painstakingly accumulated was eaten up all at once, and I never saw the fruits grow again.Where does the money come from for an ETF that goes 2x long on a stock?
Many people only focus on the management fees when looking at leveraged ETFs.
But what’s often overlooked is the financing cost.
CoinDesk broke down a case: the Tradr 2X Long SNDK Daily ETF doesn’t simply buy twice the stock; it gains leveraged exposure through a "total return swap" and pays financing fees to the counterparty.
Reports show it pays Ripple a financing rate of "overnight bank financing rate + 4 percentage points," which currently equates to about an 8% annualized rate.
And this cost is on top of the ETF management fees.
This means the true cost of a leveraged ETF isn’t just the management fee; you also have to consider the financing rate, leverage size, and holding period.
What’s even more interesting is that this business has long been dominated by banks. Ripple is entering institutional brokerage, clearing, and financing by acquiring Hidden Road for $1.25 billion by 2025.
So when looking at leveraged ETFs, don’t just ask how much the management fee is.
Also ask: who is providing the leveraged money, and how much are they charging?$AKE This 20x long position currently has an unrealized profit of over 200%, opened at 0.02711. It capitalizes on the first volume surge rebound after the new coin's sharp drop. $ZEC
At that time, the 4-hour chart showed consecutive bearish candles down to 0.02648, with clear exhaustion of bearish momentum. During the low-level consolidation, a sudden large bullish candle with huge volume pulled the price back above the short-term moving averages, which is a typical sign of capital returning to buy the dip. New coins have no trapped positions in the early stage; once funds come in to support, the rebound can be very strong. $SNDK
Now the price is approaching the 0.03 level, with an intraday high of 0.03096. Altcoins rise on sentiment and fall on profit-taking. With 20x leverage, don't be greedy; watch if it can hold above 0.03. If volume expands but price stagnates, take partial profits first and let the remaining base position run. There is significant divergence at high levels, so don't turn unrealized gains into losses.
The market offers daily opportunities for recovery after emotional sell-offs; finding your own rhythm is most important. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $INJ
Many established altcoins have surged, but INJ hasn't really followed the rise, just fluctuating with the overall market. The 7.4 level seems stuck because Bitcoin is stuck at 83000.
The underlying logic hasn't changed: there's substance, narrative, revenue, and a team. In the mid to long term, surpassing 9 to 10 is no problem. The reason for not heavily holding is being stuck by $TAO; as mentioned before, I wanted to buy near 280 but was afraid of missing out, resulting in some unrealized losses.
After $TAO profits, I will reduce my position appropriately. I originally wanted to pick up some $APT, but due to position management, I took profits on TIA after a small gain. Actually, I should diversify evenly, buying a bit of several established altcoins because it's uncertain which will break out first. Once one breaks out, sell part of it—that way, returns would be much higher.
I'm not very willing to chase now; having missed the opportunity to build a base position and ride floating profits, I won't force it. Specifically, I'll wait for the market to stabilize before making appropriate adjustments.
Historically, holding ETH at 2570 was also viable. Of course, it’s definitely less reassuring and stable than buying at 1700. Ultimately, it depends on whether Bitcoin will become the medium of exchange between AIs. If that is Bitcoin's destiny, then Zhao Changpeng's claim that Bitcoin could rise 1000 times is possible.
Looking back then, Bitcoin at 83000 and Ethereum at 2600 were indeed bargain prices. Samsung is going to integrate USDC transfers directly into the phone's native wallet.
Starting from the last week of October, US Galaxy users in the U.S. will be able to send and receive USDC on Solana via Samsung Wallet / Samsung Pay, covering approximately 82 million devices.
The biggest change is not just adding another stablecoin wallet, but that users no longer need to download an app or manage private keys themselves. This is supported by on-chain infrastructure like Solana and licensed stablecoin custodian Bastion.
But note: this is a custodial solution.
What you save is the hassle of managing private keys and operating the wallet, but trust still exists; it just shifts from user self-custody to a third party.
What really deserves attention is distribution.
Previously, for stablecoins to enter ordinary users' lives, users had to actively download wallets, register, and top up. Now Samsung directly puts it into an existing wallet.
The significance of 82 million devices may not be the immediate transaction volume it brings, but that it transforms stablecoins from a standalone crypto product into an ordinary financial feature inside the phone.
The real large-scale adoption of stablecoins may not be creating another wallet, but directly entering existing wallets.Now let me share some valuable tips with everyone. Before placing any order, I fill out a trading plan in my notebook. I call this notebook the Trading Calm Book. I find it quite practical. It helps filter out many emotional and impulsive trades, covering trading logic, entry price, take profit, and so on.
Impulse is the devil, and emotions are even more so.10.8
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $223 million, with 56,000 people liquidated, the majority being long positions.
BTC alone liquidated $63.33 million, ETH $46.08 million, along with altcoins.
Extending to 48 hours, total liquidations reached $540 million, 117,000 people buried, still mostly longs.
This is the truest reflection of a downtrend.
Every few hundred points the price drops, a group of people think the drop is enough, the bottom is reached, and rush in to buy the dip and go long.
Then a wave of selling hits, and another batch of long positions get liquidated and exit.
Longs keep getting liquidated, the downtrend won't stop.
Only when no one dares to call a bottom, and shorts start getting liquidated in bulk, is it truly the time the bottom is being ground out.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 Beneath the red, two kinds of fragility
Though both are falling, $LINK and $ONDO show two different chip mindsets.
$LINK dropped 4.45%, but smart money bulls still hold nearly $1 million in positions, with the bullish scale almost four times that of the bears. This indicates that although selling pressure exists, the bullish formation hasn't collapsed yet, and there is at least surface-level support.
$ONDO is more worrisome. Its long and short positions are almost evenly split: bulls hold $16.9 million, bears $17.1 million. More critically, bulls have accumulated $708,000 in unrealized losses. Such a balance is unhealthy; it’s like a tightly stretched string—the bears have a slight edge, and the bulls are suffering in floating losses. Any further dip could trigger retreats or stop-losses.
Therefore, after this round of sell-off, if I had to pick one chart to watch, I would choose $ONDO. $LINK is under pressure, $ONDO is fragile. The former depends on whether the bulls can hold, the latter on when the balance breaks.$LINK
LINK has shifted from a slight rise to a drop of over 4%. Which will change first: usage value or short-term price?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 13.24—13.941 USDT, change -4.17%, trading volume approximately 11.84 million USDT.
The observed quote is near the lower end of the range; yesterday's relative lead was not maintained. Oracle usage and token price are subject to different constraints; a price pullback alone cannot prove a real decrease in call demand.
If calls and fees do not improve and the price continues to break lower, proceed with caution; if evidence of demand and support on the pullback both strengthen, then increase confidence in a recovery.Core Bull-Bear Logic
Dimension 📈 Bullish Signals 📉 Bearish Risks
Technical RSI 64.7 not overheated; ADX 43.4 strong trend; 82,500 support effective; four attempts to break 87,000 failed; broke below Bollinger middle band; short-term structure weakening
Capital Side Dip buying continues accumulation through dollar-cost averaging; ETF net inflow of 119 million on October 6; single-day ETF net outflow of 487 million; ETH ETF bleeding for 7 consecutive days; no ETF recorded net inflow
Macro Side October rate hike probability only about 19.4%, most likely to hold steady; FOMC minutes hawkish; US Treasury yield at 5.36% hits highest since 2002; geopolitical risks rising
On-Chain Santiment recorded net outflow of 24,073 BTC from exchanges, largest since March 1; new capital inflow slow; Glassnode indicates BTC fell within 12 hours after multiple positive data points
Season After three consecutive weeks of gains, 13-week period has 71% probability to continue rising, year-end target 108,000; if 80,000 USD support breaks, bullish pattern may be broken
Key On-Chain Signal: Santiment data shows recent net outflow of 24,073 BTC from exchanges, largest since March 1, indicating some investors are moving Bitcoin to cold wallets rather than preparing to sell. However, Glassnode also points out that new capital inflow to the market is slow, and BTC has shown a "pump and dump" pattern after multiple positive US data releases, with upward moves lacking effective volume support. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 10.8 BTC
Last night the FOMC minutes were released, and many people panicked immediately
They jumped to say that rate hikes are bearish and a crash is coming, but there's no need to overreact
So let me break down the actual impact on BTC and ETH
The so-called majority of officials leaning toward another rate hike is essentially Fed expectation management,
not a done deal on the rate hike.
So what impact does this have on BTC?
I think the short-term resistance at 83,500-84,000 is more realistic
It’s hard for a straight one-sided rally
But the support at 82,000 is also strong, the big picture of cooling employment hasn’t changed
Overall, it’s still range-bound, grinding to adjust expectations, and won’t trigger a new big drop.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $AI /USDT JUST WICKED TO 0.02264 AND GAVE IT ALL BACK.
Daily chart shows a sharp rejection candle, now sitting near 0.02081. Still +4.36% over 30D, yet down 23.12% over 90D.
I respect the bounce, but I trust structure more than momentum.
Does a failed breakout wick change how you size your next entry? I didn't expect to break even, but it directly brought me to profit. This service is top-notch. $VVV This short position can afford a good meal.
Just finished lunch and checked the market, VVV was lingering at a high level again, the rebound was weak, and the resistance above was tight. At 27.725, I shorted directly with one logic: no one is catching on the way up, it will come down sooner or later.
When the screen was full of green, others were still looking for reasons, I only look at the results. It hit 24.908, +203.35%, took it away, this profit feels solid.
Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding.
First close 70%, pocket the main part. Keep the remaining 30% at cost price as protection; if it continues to drop, let the profit run. Don't be greedy for the last bit; take profits when you should.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round; there are still opportunities, don't rush.
$SOL $ADA #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
I just finished reading the September FOMC minutes, and my first reaction: the hawkish cards are all on the table.
Most officials verbally "lean toward another rate hike," but if you look at the context—sticky inflation, still strong employment, yet financial conditions have tightened so much even they are worried.
Whether they actually hike depends on upcoming CPI and unemployment data, not just a line in the minutes.
My qualitative take: this is expectation management, not an immediate table flip. The market fell first then stabilized, indicating smart money knows "lean toward" ≠ "implementation."
My medium-term view remains unchanged: the liquidity turning point will come sooner or later, but the Fed will squeeze out the last bit of pain.
My strategy—don’t get scared by the minutes and cut positions, nor go all-in long blindly; with interest rate expectations fluctuating, $BTC and $XAU both shake first before choosing direction.
$ETH
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ Brothers, there's a reason why it can't rise at this time.
Yesterday the meeting minutes were released, but they had no impact on the overall market, absolutely no reaction!
The main reason is that there are too many people going long, retail longs are as numerous as flies.
Whether it's Bitcoin or Ethereum, retail longs are countless.
Under this macro pressure and market condition, with so many retail longs, the willingness of the whales to pump the price is definitely very low.
Look at $ETH's movement, smashed from 2725 to 2536, now squeezed around 2569, the rebound can't even touch 2600.
All moving averages are pressing from above, every bullish candle is weak and soft, like it hasn't eaten.
What about the volume? It keeps shrinking.
What does this indicate?
It means no one dares to buy with real money anymore, the rest are all just bullish talk.
My short position entered at 2689, now floating profit is 45%, haven't closed it at all.
It's not that I don't want to close, this market simply gives no room for bulls.
The more retail crowds go long, the less likely the whales will pump; they'd rather smash it down, blow out all the leverage, then pick up cheap chips.
This is the eternal harvesting logic in the crypto world.
In terms of operation, add more shorts on the rebound to 2600-2620, set stop loss above 2700, target first at 2450.
Don't be a hero in a downtrend; places where bulls crowd together never end well.
$BTC
$ZEC
#September FOMC minutes released, most officials lean towards another rate hike The news of the attacks in Hormuz is nerve-wracking, but when reviewing the reports, I found something worth pointing out: the time the news is released may be later than when the attack actually occurred. UKMTO's report No. 154-26 clearly marks a delayed report, with the incident happening on October 4. Counting every new push notification as a new attack easily leads to an inflated risk assessment.
This is by no means to say the shipping lanes are safe. The attacks on oil tankers are serious enough, and with the US and Iran still negotiating, there is no guarantee provided for ships at sea. The issue is that analyzing the situation requires distinguishing between new incidents, delayed reports of old incidents, and follow-up updates on the same incident. Repeated reports can be very frequent, but the risk facts should not be counted repeatedly.
This is especially true when trading. The more alarming the headline, the easier it is to skip over event numbers, occurrence dates, and information sources, and focus directly on the price. By the time the information has been forwarded around, details that were originally unconfirmed may have already been presented as final investigation conclusions.
My stance is to remain vigilant about real shipping risks and to exercise some patience with the processing of information. Negotiation progress, passage through shipping lanes, and specific attacks need to be tracked separately and cannot substitute for one another. It is normal to worry about energy supply, but there is no need to let repeated messages amplify your panic. News that is a few minutes faster may not help judgment; sometimes reading a couple more lines of the original report is actually more useful. Especially for events that affect global prices, dates and report numbers are truly not trivial.
#霍尔木兹油轮接连遇袭，美伊谈判仍在继续 BTC从87,399回落，现在84,184.9美元，20日区间是76,258.2到87,399——区间宽度约14.6%，比一个月前明显收窄。低波动不会一直持续，但结束前通常有征兆，我列三个最常见的。 先看今天的数字。第一，波动收窄：BTC现报84,184.9美元（24小时 -1.79%，近一周 +0.06%），在20日区间中部偏上位置横盘；第二，资金停滞：美国现货ETF 5日净流入约3.728亿美元（最新单日+3.017亿），规模只有两周前26亿级别的零头；第三，宏观偏紧：美元指数102.00（+0.17%）持续走强，而标普500涨0.58%创阶段新高7,818.93，恐惧贪婪指数从73降到71。 低波动结束前最常见的三个征兆：**一是资金通道先动。**ETF或稳定币的净流入/流出往往领先价格一到两周——通道先放量，价格后突破。**二是波动率指标先抬头。**永续合约的资金费率、期权的隐含波动率会在价格突破前变化；费率从0.0015%这个极低水平开始抬升，通常对应趋势启动。**三是区间边界的试探次数增加。**价格开始频繁触碰上沿或下沿，而不是在中间磨——试探越频繁，突破概率越高。 反过来The timing is also nerve-wracking. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin hit a historic high of $126,080; three days later, on October 10, the crypto market saw liquidations exceeding $19 billion, which traders still refer to as the "reverse holiday." This year, October 7 is just two days away from that anniversary. Today's long liquidations of about $480 million are only a fraction of last year's, but memories can make ordinary range pullbacks read like the prelude to a trend reversal.
The remaining three weeks of October are more likely to be a battle within the range rather than a one-sided market. The baseline scenario is digestion between $83,000 and $87,700. Around $84,000 remains a cost concentration zone for long-term holders; as long as the daily close does not break below $83,000 to $83,300, this round of decline looks more like clearing out the leverage that bet on a breakout since late September. If the minutes are not hawkish and ETFs return to net inflows, a price recovery above $86,700 and stabilization above $87,000 would set the first target at $90,000, with the long-term average resistance around $96,000 discussed only beyond that.Once stocks are moved onto the blockchain, another question immediately arises: who issues them? Currently, there are actually three completely different approaches in the market: first buying real stocks and then turning them into on-chain certificates; having the listed companies themselves issue tokenized stocks; and not buying stocks at all, but directly creating on-chain derivatives that track stock price fluctuations. Although all involve stocks on the blockchain, the underlying logic is completely different.Sberbank is also starting to talk about crypto.
It's the largest bank in Russia, and executives say customer interest is strong, and they are studying how to develop some related tools under regulation.
Sounds pretty big.
To put it bluntly, customers are asking too much, and they can't hold back.
I'm familiar with this.
Back in the day, many banks said they wouldn't touch it, but secretly did custody behind the scenes.
By the time they really got involved, retail investors' chips had long been washed out.
Don't get dazzled by the phrase "big institutions entering the market."
They're not here to carry you.
They're here to collect the entry fee.
In Russia, regulation has always been twisted; now that they're loosening up, it means money is stronger than rules.
This is a sentiment boost for $BTC, not a reason for an immediate price rally.
What really matters is whether they are doing custody or trading.
Custody is just storing money; trading is where the real action is.
At this stage, I'd rather see what tools they launch than listen to what they say about interest.
Interest is worthless.
Licenses are what matter.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 $BTC $BTC $BTC is at a critical position again, don't rush to chase
$BTC is currently fluctuating around $83,000, with an intraday high touching $83,891 and a low returning to $82,319. This position is interesting: first, watch if $84,000 can be firmly held above; only after holding firm is there a chance to continue pushing towards $86,500–$87,000.
Conversely, $82,300 is a relatively key short-term support. If it breaks down with volume, the market may retest $80,000.
Right now, I prefer to wait for a breakout confirmation rather than chasing back and forth in the range. The more $BTC grinds at such a position, the more important it is to closely monitor the key levels."Whale silence does not mean selling pressure disappears"
Glassnode data from October 7th gave the market a reminder: about 86% of BTC inflows to exchanges on October 4th came from short-term holders in profit, marking a new high in nearly a year. In other words, recent entrants have clearly prioritized "cashing out." The fact that whales haven't moved doesn't mean selling pressure is absent; it's just that the chips are changing hands, and the selling pressure has a new owner.
How far can this recovery go? The key isn't how much less whales are selling, but how much new buying interest is willing to absorb the short-term profit-taking. The ETF's net inflows for three consecutive weeks do provide some support, but whether ETF buying is enough to digest short-term realizations remains to be seen. If it holds, the chips become more stable after the turnover; if not, the recovery could easily turn into a mere rebound.
Don't be comforted by "institutional lock-up" or "whales not selling." The real test of the market is whether buyers remain every time profitable chips flow to exchanges. Whale silence is just background noise; turnover is the main theme.
#ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 Oil prices are rising again — it's not a demand story, but geopolitics + freight pushing inflation back
On 10/8, Brent was $101.5, up about 45% in three months. Three triggers: ① The White House wants the Pentagon to draft a plan to strike Iran (possibly before the 11/3 midterm elections) ② Houthi attacks on two Saudi airports ③ Storms causing partial production disruptions in the US.
The real issue is structural: tanker shortages + record freight rates, European refinery profits have turned negative and may be forced to cut production. Why this is bad news for BTC: the transmission chain is oil price → inflation expectations → Fed → real interest rates → risk assets. Oil price is the hardest CPI component to suppress, and it's a supply shock, so rate hikes can't suppress supply. The Fed just raised rates to 3.75%-4% in September, and the dot plot suggests possibly another hike by year-end — if October CPI is pushed up by energy, the Fed will find it hard to stop.
Bulls: The geopolitical premium is event-driven, not a trend. If the White House doesn't act, the strait reopens, freight rates fall → oil prices retreat → rate hike risk weakens → BTC rebounds.
Bears: Don't just look at crude oil, look at the diesel crack spread. Refinery cuts → finished fuel shortages, a secondary inflation transmitted downstream. If October CPI is pushed up, the path is 82,000 → 80,000 → 77,000.
My judgment: This round of oil price rise is an "inflation stab", not a risk appetite rally. Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$MET top accounts are bearish, positions are bullish, both sides tend to weaken, and divergence narrows. Bullish accounts ratio 47.3%→48.4%, bullish positions ratio 57.9%→57%; gap narrows by 1.9 percentage points.
$JUP top accounts are bullish, positions are bearish, divergence narrowing mainly from the account side. Bullish accounts ratio 59.4%→57.7%, bullish positions ratio 49.3%→49.3%; gap narrows by 1.62 percentage points.$ALGO entered long at 0.12267 with 50x leverage, now hanging at 0.13727, floating profit dropped from seven or eight hundred to just over five hundred but still calm. Looking at the 4-hour chart: after the spike at 0.11516, it couldn't fall further, volume shrank and moved sideways, an unpopular Layer2 that no one is watching, actually in the accumulation phase. Then a volume surge candle directly pushed to 0.14344, volume bars also picked up, but the upper shadow indicates that the rally around that area couldn't be sustained, profit-taking is happening.
Now the price has fallen back near 0.137, the 4-hour moving average is starting to turn, the short moving average is back above the key level, the structure is intact. I'm more concerned whether the pullback will hold: if it can stabilize around 0.13 with volume not collapsing, I will still expect the rebound to continue; if the rebound to 0.143~0.145 produces another long upper shadow, I will reduce my position first. The previous test position at -0.14 was washed out, consider it tuition, only follow when the real trend emerges.
There are buy orders on the order book, funding rates are not exaggerated, not like a pure emotional rocket pump. Not gambling 50x to the moon, treating it as a swing trade. Don't just look at the profit chart, that 4-hour upper shadow is what you should be watching now. The market can change anytime during the session, finding your own rhythm is most important.PONS at 0.40, are you looking to buy the dip?
PONS at 0.40, are you still waiting for it to return to 0.53? Down 24% in a week, today it surged to 0.43 then dropped back to the starting point, BTC fell below 83000—Is this a shakeout or the final cut inside the box?
First, look at the surface: you think the trend is back, but it’s just the box moving back and forth.
Yesterday 0.40, today still 0.40. It first spiked to 0.43 this morning, then a shadow candle pushed it back to the starting point. On October 1 it was still at 0.53, down 24% in the past week, and from the ATH of 0.78, it has halved by 48%. The 24-hour low was 0.374, the high 0.434—about 6 points up and down, cutting back and forth.
The candlestick tells you: the daily moving averages are still above the price, today’s candle is an upper shadow, a spike up then a fall. All technical indicators shout one thing: 0.40 is not the bottom, it’s the middle of the box, with cuts both above and below.
First thing: the 0.43 spike had no news, no volume, it’s just a short squeeze inside the box.
No new announcements today, no listings, no buybacks. The 0.43 spike was purely a short squeeze on the upper edge of the box in perpetual contracts, not new money coming in.
PONS is still the token launched on Robinhood Chain’s Pons platform. It entered Binance Alpha on September 2, with market cap once reaching $360 million. September 16 was the peak of token issuance, after which interest dropped, and the price fell from 0.78 to 0.40.
Perpetual contracts are already live, with positions relatively large compared to spot, but fees are low. In plain terms: both bulls and bears are betting, but no one is putting real money in. The 0.43 spike had no volume to sustain it, it was just a glimpse, not a boarding call.
Second thing: fundamentals and income follow token issuance volume; the September pulse has passed, no new data supports the price in October.
PONS captures fees for buyback and burn, income is directly linked to token issuance volume. Mid-September was the peak pulse, and until now in October, no new issuance data supports holding 0.40.
Circulation and market cap metrics vary greatly across exchanges, don’t use the $360 million from September 2 as an anchor now. 0.40 is 25% cheaper than 0.53, but still a pullback from the high of 0.78.
What you’re buying is “the box is still there,” not a bargain. If the box breaks, 0.40 is just mid-mountain.
Third thing: the overall market is suppressing small coins; PONS holding at 0.40 doesn’t mean it can escape the environment.
BTC broke below 83000 today, briefly hitting 82800. Brent crude oil rose above $102, 10-year US Treasury yield around 5.31%, minutes leaning hawkish. ETH near 2560.
Small depth contracts amplify BTC’s volatility. If BTC can’t hold 82600, PONS will test 0.36 first; if BTC rebounds to 84500, it doesn’t mean 0.43 will hold.
Don’t mistake box oscillation for an independent rally. When the market coughs, small coins go to ICU.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Fee buyback and burn, real income model
Binance Alpha + perpetual contracts launched, liquidity foundation
0.40 is 25% cheaper than 0.53, some think “it’s dropped enough”
On the other side:
No new announcements in October, interest keeps dropping
Daily moving averages above, today’s upper shadow spike then fall
BTC below 83000, macro hawkish, risk assets under pressure
0.43 already proven to be supply, not demand
Key level: 0.40 stuck in the middle of the box.
Above: 0.425-0.434 (yesterday and today’s spike tips) → 0.45 (October 3 supply) → 0.50-0.53 (early October platform)
Below: 0.374 (today’s low) → 0.364 (October 6 low, short-term lifeline) → break to 0.33 (vacuum)
No volume to hold above 0.435, don’t talk about 0.50. Daily close below 0.36, treat as break down short term.
Trading strategy
Core principle: don’t chase 0.40, 0.43 already proven supply. Only trade the box, very low leverage.
Aggressive: Not recommended to go long near 0.40. If you must, very light position when stabilizing at 0.365-0.375, stop loss 0.355, target 0.420. Exit at 0.415 first.
Conservative: Wait for 0.33-0.35, stop loss 0.31. If not reached, stay out.
Breakout: Only consider chasing if volume supports holding above 0.435 and pullback doesn’t break 0.40, target 0.45. 0.53 is not a target.
Bearish: Light short positions on weak rallies at 0.420-0.434, stop loss 0.445, targets 0.374, 0.365. Don’t hold shorts near 0.365.
Position size: Single trade risk no more than 1% of total capital, leverage recommended no more than 2x. Today it can go from 0.37 to 0.43 and back, don’t gamble with high leverage.
Risk control priority:
If it breaks 0.364 with volume, exit first, next target 0.33.
If positions keep building but price doesn’t rise, treat as distribution.
If BTC breaks 82600, reduce PONS leverage first.
PONS now is like a trapped beast in the box—
0.40 and yesterday are the same box, the only extra is the 0.43 upper shadow. You think it’s a bottom, but you’re dancing on the edge of a knife.
What you can do is trade the range between 0.36 and 0.43, not all-in back to 0.53.
Watch two things: can 0.364 hold, and will 0.43 be rejected again.
$BTC $ETH $PONS My thinking is very simple: Market cap below $15 billion: increase position. $15–20 billion: regular dollar-cost averaging. Above $20 billion: in principle, do not chase, only small dollar-cost averaging based on position size. Overall maintain around 20%, if there is a rapid short-term rise, will appropriately sell high to control position size. Why am I willing to allocate 20% to CRCL? First, RWA (Real World Assets) on-chain is a trend worth long-term betting on. If in the future real estate, stocks, funds, bonds, and other assets can all be traded on-chain, the global circulation efficiency of assets will undergo huge changes. But the problem is: "Everything on-chain" will definitely happen ≠ CRCL will definitely become the biggest winner. So I will not heavily bet on one outcome. The significance of a 20% position is: to get on board and not miss out; if the judgment is wrong, it won't be a big blow. Second, stablecoins are the foundation for CRCL. Currently, the stablecoin market size is still in its early stage. If it continues to expand to the trillion-dollar level in the next few years, CRCL, as an important participant, theoretically still has great growth potential. This is what I understand as a "floor guarantee." Third, AI + stablecoin payments may have even greater imagination space. In the future, if AI agents, robots, and software can autonomously complete payments and settlements, stablecoins are very likely to become important native internet settlement tools. This part is still very early, but once it truly explodes, the market space may far exceed today's understanding. So my judgment is: CRCL is currently not a coin for me to heavily bet on.🌙 Night of pullbacks, each coin faces its own test
$BTC has retreated to around 83,000, down about 3% for the day, with the weekly trend weakening. 🧐 The key is not how much it falls, but whether buyers dare to bid again. If rebounds keep stalling at the same level, the selling pressure above hasn't been fully absorbed; only if it can hold steady and rise can we talk about the next wave.
$ETH is down about 5.6% for the day and about 4.5% for the week, showing more short-term weakness. 💊 Consider it a repair phase first; after the rebound, how much ground it recovers will determine if it turns strong.
$SOL is still up about 11% for the month, but the weekly chart is slightly negative. ⏸ The upward foundation remains, but momentum has paused. If the pullback is gradually contained, it’s worth continued observation.
$OKB is used to pay XLayer fees. ⛓ Whether demand is strong depends on on-chain transactions and the number of ecosystem projects, not just concepts.
$RE connects capital with insurance risk, collecting premiums and also bearing payouts. 📉 The focus is on risk pricing and actual payouts; no matter the scale, the true test is how much profit is ultimately retained.
Don’t rush to conclusions today; wait for the market to finish speaking. 👀#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ Bitcoin's correction is further expanding.
BTC once dropped to $82,654, then fluctuated around $82,900, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.3%.
The highest point in the past 24 hours reached $84,358.
This means Bitcoin not only fell below $84,000 again, but the recently contested $83,000 area has also been lost.
Market focus is shifting from "whether $83,000 can hold" to the next round number — $80,000.
$700 million liquidations, leveraged longs are once again washed out. This round of decline is accompanied by significant deleveraging.
According to CoinGlass data, about 124,000 traders across the market were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations around $714 million.
The largest single liquidation came from Binance, an ETHUSDC position valued at about $26.64 million.
Previously, when BTC fell below $84,000, the market's 24-hour liquidation scale also reached about $556 million, with long liquidations around $487 million.
Two consecutive rounds of large-scale liquidations indicate that previously accumulated leverage is being rapidly cleared.
Especially after BTC dropped from around $87,000 down below $83,000, the market is no longer just simple high-level oscillation; leveraged long liquidations are further amplifying price volatility.
$82,000 has become the next key defensive line $$XAU I had just finished complaining to my friends about this week's market, but I have to take back my words now, it's a bit awkward.
Yesterday afternoon, I noticed every time XAU surged, it was just short of a breath, with strong signs of a bull trap and volume not keeping up. So I suggested shorting, don't chase, take short positions slowly.
Shorted from 4,133.9 to 4,127.7, +14.99%, nailed it, feeling good brothers.
Take profits on 80% first, keep 20% at cost price as protection, don't be greedy for the last bit.
Panic comes from lack of plan, losses come from overthinking. The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they're the smartest. For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, watch for new structures.
$ETH $BNB ETF inflows can look decisive without being enough to reset market structure. The quick turn from outflows to inflows suggests demand is present, yet the failed $87K tests and long liquidations show how fragile positioning remains. With options expiry ahead, flows may be cushioning risk rather than confirming a durable bid.
Not advice, just analysis.
#BTCETFFlowParadox $OKB looks like a huge positive, but when the coin price is pumped to sell off, it's not that people look down on you, OK, it's that you, OK, have no vision at allMARKET DETECTIVE: Three clues from the oil market.
1. Just 7 commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Tuesday—the fewest since July 23.
2. Brent reached $102.28 (+4.1%) by 09:00 UTC Thursday.
3. Alternative routes have kept total Middle East crude exports near prewar levels.
The pressure comes from shipping threats and supply risks, not a confirmed collapse in regional exports.
For altcoin traders, the next macro signal may arrive by sea.
#Crypto #Oil #Macro #Altcoins