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#美日确认联合购汇 The US and Japan officially announced coordinated market intervention to purchase yen for the first time in 15 years, marking the US Treasury's direct involvement in yen intervention for nearly 30 years. This quickly reversed the one-sided bearish trend, with USD/JPY surging over 4% from the 164 forty-year low in a short period, causing a large number of yen carry trade shorts to stop loss and exit.
Each country has core demands: Japan, plagued by the yen's sharp decline, faces soaring import costs for energy and food, driving imported inflation. Selling US Treasuries alone to support the market would exacerbate bond market volatility, so Japan must seek US cooperation to strengthen market signals; the US intervention is essentially self-protection, aiming to prevent Japan from massively reducing US Treasury holdings which would push up long-term yields and ease domestic financing pressure, while also suppressing the export advantage brought by an undervalued yen to ease trade tensions in domestic manufacturing.
Market impact is clearly differentiated: the yen's short-term strengthening suppresses leading exporters in the Japanese stock market; the dollar's temporary weakening slightly benefits gold and commodities. However, the joint intervention only changes short-term sentiment and cannot reverse the fundamental logic of the large US-Japan interest rate differential. Medium to long-term pressure for yen depreciation remains unresolved. Going forward, the market will focus on Federal Reserve rates and oil inflation data. If US Treasury yields surge again, the dollar still has room to strengthen, and volatility in global equities and crypto assets will continue to amplify. $BTC $ETH $SNDK A 9-year veteran trader tells you
Shitcoins can make money, and contracts can also be played to make money
But you must follow these points
【No bottom fishing】
【No top guessing】
【Enter on the right side】Clear trend reversal
【Set stop loss properly】Within 5%
【No heavy positions】Leverage below 3x
【No revenge trades】Do not reopen after stop loss
【Pay attention to news】Easy to form one-sided trends
【Watch funding rates】Too high funding rates are not suitable for shorting
Latest statistics of volatile shitcoins
$LAB Circulation rate 32.2%
$RAVE Circulation rate 25.2%
$ALLO Circulation rate 24%
$ZAMA Circulation rate 20%
$PIEVERSE Circulation rate 27.4%
$KAITO Circulation rate 24.1%
$ZBT Circulation rate 24.4%
$ESP Circulation rate 17.2%
$BEAT Circulation rate 30.9%
$la Circulation rate 19.3%
$UB Circulation rate 25%
$BSB Circulation rate 23.6%
$BILL Circulation rate 24.2%
$AEON Circulation rate 18.8%
$ACH Circulation rate 20%
$RE Circulation rate 15.9%
$SOON Circulation rate 33.8%
$CAP Circulation rate 15.6%
$ACU Circulation rate 32.4%
$BREV Circulation rate 25%
$MMT Circulation rate 20.4%
$HOME Circulation rate 42%
$UP Circulation rate 12.5%
$PROS Circulation rate 13.5%
$COAI Circulation rate 18.8%
$KGEN Circulation rate 19.8%
$GRVT Circulation rate 11.43
$OFC Circulation rate 22.7%
$LIGHT Circulation rate 10.2%
$AT Circulation rate 23%
$ENSO Circulation rate 16.1%
$h Circulation rate 19.9%
$o Circulation rate 16%
$EDEN Circulation rate 39.8%
$ACU Circulation rate 32.7%
$APR Circulation rate 27.7%
$ROBO Circulation rate 22.3%
Statistics of more active meme coins
$GIGGLE
$PIPPIN
$ORDI
$SATS
$MUBARAK
$ACT
$BOME
$PEOPLE
$PUMP
$TRUMP
Personal opinions for reference only, not investment advice.27% asset outflow. This is the cold, hard data of Ethereum heavy staking giant EigenLayer experiencing a mass withdrawal of funds across the network from its TVL peak to early August.
Don't think the sharp drop in TVL is just a normal capital return during a bull market peak correction.
Retail investors and so-called DeFi scientists across the network were previously singing praises about "heavy staking building Ethereum's hundred-billion security iron bottom" and "LST/LRT nesting is a perpetual yield machine for this cycle," believing that infinitely nesting Ethereum assets could earn passive income for life. Everyone thought EigenLayer's massive scale was an unshakable sanctuary and confidently locked their real money in long-term staking pools.
But why, at the critical moment of token airdrop distribution, did the load-bearing walls of this hundred-billion security tower get heavily smashed and withdrawn by its own people without regard for friction losses?
Because the 27% outflow of tens of billions in assets never had any of the "consensus faith" loudly proclaimed by Ethereum geeks; they were just "mercenary capital" coming to harvest airdrops and points before running away.
This tears off the most illusory financial facade of the so-called heavy staking security narrative.
Think about it: if heavy staking really generated continuous real industrial revenue by protecting AVS (Active Validation Services), why would big money retreat daily at over $100 million speed without looking back the moment airdrop incentives ended?
Because AVS never generated any "real commercial profits" to support the enormous contract risk.
Without the carrot of airdrop points dangling in front of the donkey, the Ponzi tower's backup power is instantly physically cut off.
Retail investors think they are participating in Ethereum's underlying security construction, but in reality, they are bearing multi-layer smart contract nested slashing risks while serving as the slowest liquidity for mercenary capital that dumps after harvesting airdrops.
I used to be a mindless believer chasing so-called heavy staking high yields, a yield flywheel. When I saw EigenLayer's TVL exceed tens of billions and influencers boasting about the security base daily, I enthusiastically nested my hard-earned hundreds of ETH into various LRT platforms to earn points. But when the token launched, I saw AVS's real on-chain service fee income was almost zero; the so-called yields were just air bubbles moving from left hand to right, and I had to bear the risk of total loss due to contract vulnerabilities at any time. A cold wind hit the back of my head. I realized this was a Ponzi power cut. Without hesitation, even risking a few days of redemption friction and slippage loss, I immediately initiated redemption and refund of all my heavy staking LRT tokens last night and transferred all my ETH back to the safest native mainnet address.
This risk-based capital control instinct saved my only underlying position in early August.
Without the bait of profit, all the empty nesting is a self-defeating zero-sum game.
In the coming week, closely watch EigenLayer smart contract address capital net outflow indicators and the real on-chain fee income data of major AVS active validation services. Before this mercenary retreat stampede is fully cleared, control your greed and never become the last stepping sandbag for this soon-to-be powerless nesting tower.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Signal of a Bitcoin rally starting is appearing.
A bull market is a process when whales sell $BTC , which they bought at low prices, to retail investors while the price rises.
In past cycle patterns, $BTC LTH created a first rally by selling a portion of its accumulated supply. Subsequently, it saw a pattern of accumulating more supply during subsequent declines, after which a second rally proceeded.
In general, the second rally recorded a much larger rise than the first rally, and the cycle ended as LTH lost a significant portion of their supply.
The first rally of this cycle began in January 2023 and continued until December 2025. During this process, LTH repeatedly bought and sold $BTC . Subsequently, during the decline,they explosively increased their supply by buying far more than their selling amount.
Recently, the increase trend in LTH supply has stopped, and a decrease has begun. Based on previous patterns, the second rally is starting.
In the 2013 cycle, the gap between the first and second rally was 8 months. In the 2017 cycle, it was 17 months. And in the 2021 cycle, it was 16 months.
In this cycle, 31 months have passed since the first rally. This is a completely different pattern from previous cycles. The second rally was delayed as spot ETFs were launched, institutional funds flowed in, and buying by new "whales" continued.
However, the important fact is that LTHs hold the largest amount of $BTC in history.
And that $BTC supply from LTHs has started to decrease.
#DailyOrbit Analyzing the current market situation based on the Eastern US time 11:26 data
Key market data at present
$SNDK current price is $1407.665, with a daily increase of 9.29%
$NVDA's intraday high remains capped at $1415.37, opening at $1360, with a low of $1340;
$META's trading volume has surged to 9.222 billion, turnover rate at 4.51%, and capital inflow continues to expand compared to an hour ago.
Intraday market interpretation
After an early surge hitting the $1415 resistance, there was a brief pullback to digest floating shares, with existing short-term funds completing turnover, then buying power pushed the price back above the $1400 mark.
The storage sector sentiment is overall very strong, with the electronics technology sector up 2.81% for the day, and the industry index continuously supporting SanDisk's bullish trend.
The earnings preview data is very impressive, with revenue and net profit year-over-year growth both exceeding 250%, which is the core confidence for funds to aggressively enter and go long.
Risks to watch
$1415.37 is a strong intraday resistance; two attempts failed to break through smoothly, accumulating a large amount of short-term profit-taking chips here;
Current entering funds are almost entirely short-term speculative capital betting on earnings; the main US stock funds still focus on Nvidia's computing power track, with storage only a short-term rotation branch;
The P/E ratio TTM has reached 46.25, with the stock price already pricing in much of the earnings good news in advance; if the official earnings only meet expectations, a profit-taking plunge is likely.
Short-term trading view
The short-term moving average support between $1387 and $1390 is intact; as long as the price firmly holds this support range, one can continue to watch for a surge;
If repeated tests of the $1415 high still fail to break through, be prepared to take short-term profits and exit to avoid concentrated profit-taking sell-offs. Just turned off the damn air conditioner, the wind blew in through the windowsill, feels pretty comfortably cool. My phone lit up, glanced at my positions, and burst out laughing—laughing at myself for really treating some DEX's farm APY like a paycheck before, refreshing it eighty times a day, dumb as hell.
Those "revolutionary protocols" in my account that I once set alarms for, afraid to miss any testnet interaction, now their prices have dropped to about the same as that wilted bag of greens in my fridge. Not exactly heartbroken, just suddenly feeling—this pile of "new paradigms" slapped together with Solidity might not even get the test coins from the next Ethereum fork.
This sounds harsh as hell, but go check the weekly active addresses on Dune, and don’t curse on the spot after you see it.
There was a guy in the group who heavily invested in a ZK derivative project, holding from TGE to now down -96%, analyzing daily on Telegram "dev repo still updating" "foundation address accumulating." I said, bro, wake up, okay? That’s not long-termism, that’s just being too scared to hit sell, it’s cowardice, trading time for illusions.
Last month his project’s daily active users dropped to just over three hundred, the latest official tweet was a Devcon recap from April, with five comments: two bots, two "when’s the pump," and one GM. The whole dashboard might as well have "liquidity gone" written on the K-line, almost popping up a window saying "run now."
This round isn’t some multi-chain bull market, it’s a PVP slaughterhouse, basically smart money digging for the last bite in old mining scraps, while dumb money serves the smart money.
Those market makers are now smarter than monkeys, only daring to play around in a few old protocols with real revenue, liquidation records, and big staker backing. The rest? They dump evenly from inventory daily by algorithm, dumping until you’re numb to the order book spreads, dumping until you’re too lazy to calculate impermanent loss on Debank, dumping until you can’t even find words to curse.
Just glanced at the last 6 hours of on-chain net position changes today (August 4, 2026), sharper than a scalpel, staring wide-eyed:
✅ Net position increase (main force accumulation):
$BTC • $ETH • $SOL • $LINK • $UNI • $AAVE • $MKR • $CRV • $PENDLE • $FXS
Bitcoin is as stable as the Fed’s gold vault, the rest are all veterans in DeFi who have survived more than two shakeouts and still stand tall. Funds are squeezing into places with protocol revenue, liquidation barriers, and governance sediment—this itself is the clearest risk-off signal, plain and simple. New public chains? Modular? ZK? None on today’s increment list, all soaking in liquidity swamps, whoever wants to fish, fish away, don’t cry after.
❌ Net position decrease (main force reduction):
$ARB • $OP • $MATIC • $AVAX • $DOT • $ATOM • $NEAR • $FTM • $EGLD • $ICP • $FIL
Several of these were last year’s "strategic allocation layer" in major funds’ Q3 reports, hyped to the skies, now their rebound strength is as soft as overnight fries, the market has torn off their last narrative cover, can’t even prop them up. Especially those modular public chains, once the narrative cools, they turn into ghost towns, whoever takes over is on guard duty.
👀 Took a glance at these but didn’t dare move a single sat:
$ENA • $ETHFI • $REZ • $ALT • $IO
Just a glance. In this market, acting is a hundred times worse than missing out, itchy hands are scarier than losing money, remember that.
Let me say a few more words about those unavoidable pillars, don’t mind my nagging:
👑 $BTC — the nuclear button of the market, if it breaks 60k, the whole market jumps together, no one escapes
🏛️ $ETH — ETF net inflows are like squeezing toothpaste, sticky but bears don’t dare bet their lives, whoever shorts can’t sleep at night
⚡ $SOL — on-chain sentiment amplifier, pumps in the day and dumps at night like clockwork, only good for quick in-and-out plays, don’t expect to rest easy holding overnight
🔗 $LINK — oracle heavyweight, can’t avoid its price feed, hard as nails when falling, makes your hands itch when rising
🏦 $UNI — DeFi thermometer, V4 and Unichain drama hanging by a thread, veterans watching closely, watching is one thing, acting is another
Every cycle repeats the same damn painful lesson: don’t think every project funded by a16z can make a comeback, don’t believe every roadmap isn’t just a VC exit pitch deck, don’t treat whitepapers like the Bible.
Those who truly survive bull and bear markets and pocket money never rely on "feeling it’s bottomed out" to bottom fish. They don’t count waves, don’t draw Fibonacci, don’t trust lagging indicators. They only watch stablecoin supply changes, exchange wallet net flows, whether perpetual funding rates turn negative, and where the thickest layers stack on the liquidation map.
Narratives? Can narratives be collateral? Can they pay Gas fees? Liquidity discount is your only friend, engrave that in your bones.
I lost two Model S’s worth of money before I truly swallowed this truth, swallowing it tasted like blood. Hope you pay less tuition, don’t follow my old path, don’t wait until you’ve lost everything to wake up.
---
It’s the weekend, turn off the K-line charts, throw your phone on the couch. Go out, find a street stall for some skewers, open two bottles of cold beer, chat about stuff that has nothing to do with Gas fees. Monday Asian open will be business as usual, but your hair and stomach might not be, and neither might your liver.
The market is always there, first make yourself comfortable, don’t let the damn K-line ruin your life.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #OnChainData #Weekend #FuckTheKLineSignal of a Bitcoin rally starting is appearing.
A bull market is a process when whales sell $BTC , which they bought at low prices, to retail investors while the price rises.
In past cycle patterns, $BTC LTH created a first rally by selling a portion of its accumulated supply. Subsequently, it saw a pattern of accumulating more supply during subsequent declines, after which a second rally proceeded.
In general, the second rally recorded a much larger rise than the first rally, and the cycle ended as LTH lost a significant portion of their supply.
The first rally of this cycle began in January 2023 and continued until December 2025. During this process, LTH repeatedly bought and sold $BTC . Subsequently, during the decline,they explosively increased their supply by buying far more than their selling amount.
Recently, the increase trend in LTH supply has stopped, and a decrease has begun. Based on previous patterns, the second rally is starting.
In the 2013 cycle, the gap between the first and second rally was 8 months. In the 2017 cycle, it was 17 months. And in the 2021 cycle, it was 16 months.
In this cycle, 31 months have passed since the first rally. This is a completely different pattern from previous cycles. The second rally was delayed as spot ETFs were launched, institutional funds flowed in, and buying by new "whales" continued.
However, the important fact is that LTHs hold the largest amount of $BTC in history.
And that $BTC supply from LTHs has started to decrease.#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise Signal of a Bitcoin rally starting is appearing.
A bull market is a process when whales sell $BTC , which they bought at low prices, to retail investors while the price rises.
In past cycle patterns, $BTC LTH created a first rally by selling a portion of its accumulated supply. Subsequently, it saw a pattern of accumulating more supply during subsequent declines, after which a second rally proceeded.
In general, the second rally recorded a much larger rise than the first rally, and the cycle ended as LTH lost a significant portion of their supply.
The first rally of this cycle began in January 2023 and continued until December 2025. During this process, LTH repeatedly bought and sold $BTC . Subsequently, during the decline,they explosively increased their supply by buying far more than their selling amount.
Recently, the increase trend in LTH supply has stopped, and a decrease has begun. Based on previous patterns, the second rally is starting.
In the 2013 cycle, the gap between the first and second rally was 8 months. In the 2017 cycle, it was 17 months. And in the 2021 cycle, it was 16 months.
In this cycle, 31 months have passed since the first rally. This is a completely different pattern from previous cycles. The second rally was delayed as spot ETFs were launched, institutional funds flowed in, and buying by new "whales" continued.
However, the important fact is that LTHs hold the largest amount of $BTC in history.
And that $BTC supply from LTHs has started to decrease.
#DailyOrbit Complete Market Review Two Hours After U.S. Stock Market Open (Eastern Time 11:30)
Overall Trend of Major Indexes
The three major stock indexes maintained an upward trend throughout, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 consecutively hitting new all-time highs. There was a clear shift in capital flow, moving massively from AI software heavyweight stocks to the semiconductor hardware sector.
Dow Jones Index +1.13%
S&P 500 +0.93%
Nasdaq Index +1.61%
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 5%, making the chip sector the strongest theme of the session.
Divergence Among the Seven Major U.S. Tech Giants
NVIDIA: Steadily maintained gains around +2%, with long-term buying support on the computing power theme solid and capital base stable.
Tesla experienced narrow fluctuations with minimal intraday volatility and no large-scale capital inflows or outflows.
Apple remained almost flat, with the consumer hardware sector currently not favored by capital.
Microsoft and Google faced short-term profit-taking pressure after early gains, resulting in a brief pullback.
Meta and Amazon continued to be under pressure, with previous substantial profits being realized and capital withdrawing from AI social and e-commerce sectors.
Storage & Chip Sector (Today's Hot Subsector)
The entire storage sector's heat continues to rise, with trading volume expanding steadily as capital speculates on upcoming earnings expectations:
SanDisk SNDK: Early session surge reached an intraday peak of $1415.37, followed by a brief pullback and renewed strength. Current price is $1410.63, up 9.52% intraday, with trading volume reaching $9.13 billion and volume continuing to expand. Short-term moving averages all provide support.
SK Hynix and Micron Technology gains stabilized between 6%-8%.
Arm and Marvell Technology surged over 11%, Intel rose 7%.
The optical communication sector also saw a breakout, with Coherent up 16% and multiple optical module stocks rising over 7%; Palantir, boosted by positive earnings, soared over 20%.
Other Sectors and Crypto Market Linkage
AI application software stocks showed mixed strength; only those with earnings surpassing expectations experienced independent large gains.
Chinese concept stocks declined slightly, with overall capital focus on domestic hardware chip sectors.
The hot U.S. hardware sector did not stimulate the crypto market; Bitcoin and Ethereum remain range-bound, with all new capital flowing into U.S. tech assets, leaving the crypto space lacking fresh inflows.
Market Nature and Short-Term Risks
Currently, this is a typical sector rotation market. NVIDIA remains the core market theme, while the storage sector is only a short-term branch driven by earnings expectations.
SanDisk's long positions are now approaching saturation, with $1415 as a firm resistance level; if Q2 earnings merely meet market expectations, it is highly likely to trigger concentrated long position exits after the positive news is priced in.
Short-term trading strategy: Use the 5-day moving average at $1387 as support; if it holds, continue to watch and trade for potential highs. Multiple failed attempts to break above $1415 should prompt caution to avoid pullbacks caused by short-term profit-taking exits. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% Two hours ago, we were still waiting for a second rejection at 64K. Now the bulls have taken the initiative, but the bears have not retreated: OKX shows $BTC still hovering around 64K, stuck in the previous observation zone.
Yekoi is taking back low-leverage $BTC long positions while keeping the original short positions and pushing protection; if the shorts are eliminated, only the longs remain. He believes the 61.7K–63K demand zone has shown right-side confirmation. Sanmage is more aggressive, going long directly in the current area but using extremely high leverage, with execution risk far exceeding the viewpoint itself.
The opposing side is also clear: a trader has built shorts between 64K–64.3K with a stop loss at 65.24K. Overall judgment: if $BTC closes steadily at the upper edge of the range, bulls have the advantage; if it falls back below 63K, this round of early long positions looks more like a false breakout. $SOL and $ONDO only have technical structures or plans to add positions, lacking official catalysts, so this round is not considered an opportunity.
Will you follow the right-side confirmation or wait for a false breakout before reversing?
This is only a viewpoint and information summary, not investment advice$BTC $ETH $SNDK Clear: If the bill doesn't pass, it's a short-term negative but actually good in the long run. Dragging things out is better than resolving randomly. Shakeout speeds up the market, but I think 30,000 or 40,000 is impossible. At most, it could drop to around 50,000. The reason is simple: the main force holding Bitcoin now is long-term institutions, not retail investors. Retail investors don't hold many large Bitcoins, and crypto assets haven't risen much. The chip structure is completely different from the last round. Everyone was worried that FTX collapsed last time, thinking there needs to be a big crash this time to be finished. But history won't repeat itself—it will only be similar. The main players of this round won't be the same I think it's the U.S. stock market squeezing blood and the clear bill playing a role. The U.S. stock market has been draining the crypto world for a year. Many people went to the U.S. market, lost money, got stuck, and stopped moving. This kind of shakeout should not be underestimated. But on the other hand, reaching 48,000 by year-end is the market consensus, and consensus often doesn't deliver precisely. The real price is likely to be higher than this consensus. If the current bill doesn't pass, it's a short-term pain; in the long run, it's actually fuel. The market doesn't have much time left for the air force. Will there be a big black swan in September or October? The probability is very low. At least there's no COVID-level trigger. The final drop is unlikely Hold on and it's spring! #From rate cuts to rate hikes, Fed divides are fully revealed #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to take over, Circle closes up #Palantir营收增93%, up 13% after hours The market has just received an encouraging macro signal. U.S. ISM Services PMI beat expectations, confirming that the world's largest economy remains resilient. More importantly, U.S. Treasury yields declined despite the stronger-than-expected data, suggesting investors believe inflation pressures are easing and the Federal Reserve may still have room to cut interest rates in the coming months.
For the crypto market, this combination is particularly constructive. Lower Treasury yields typically improve liquidity conditions and increase demand for risk assets, while strong economic data reduces recession fears. That creates a supportive backdrop for both $BTC and $ETH as investors gradually shift capital back toward higher-growth opportunities.
If yields continue to trend lower and financial conditions become more accommodative, $BTC could attract additional institutional inflows thanks to its growing role as a scarce digital asset. Meanwhile, $ETH stands to benefit from renewed interest in blockchain infrastructure, DeFi, and the broader digital asset ecosystem.
The "ISM Beat, Yields Fall" narrative is increasingly being viewed as a bullish macro catalyst. A resilient economy combined with easing financial conditions could provide exactly the environment that $BTC and $ETH need to regain momentum, making the coming weeks especially important for crypto investors watching the next major market move.
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit BTC has entered a "severely undervalued zone," but cheap doesn't mean an immediate takeoff
The latest view comes from crypto analyst Crypto Dan. Based on Bitcoin's realized market cap and UTXO age band data, he judges that current market participation has dropped to levels close to the historical bottoms of 2015, 2019, and 2022. $BTC is entering a "severely undervalued zone" in terms of the cycle. He believes that although the absolute bottom cannot yet be confirmed, if the next upward cycle starts around 2027, the current price is not expensive.
This conclusion does not mean telling everyone to blindly buy the dip.
$BTC is currently mainly trading between $62,000 and $65,000, with about 155,000 BTC on-chain cost concentrated here, accounting for about 0.7% of circulating supply. This large cost zone usually forms support but can also become selling pressure during a rebound: when the price falls here, some take over, and when pushing up, it encounters break-even selling.
An interesting divergence has appeared on the funding side. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $170 million, with BlackRock's IBIT inflow at $111 million; the ETF's total net asset value is about $77.58 billion, accounting for about 6.06% of Bitcoin's total market cap. Institutional funds have not fully exited, but spot trading activity remains persistently low, with total market volume once dropping to the lowest level since the end of 2023.
In plain terms, big money is buying, but ordinary traders are reluctant to move.
Technically, watch three levels: around $62,000 is the main defense zone this round; $64,000 to $65,000 is a short-term pressure dense zone; only with volume and a firm hold above $65,000 does $BTC qualify to continue testing higher ranges. Conversely, if $62,000 is lost, "undervalued" could become "cheaper," as cycle indicators never guarantee precise bottoms.
My understanding is: this is more like a value zone under low attention rather than a confirmed main upward phase. Bottoms are often not called out by a big bullish candle but are ground out as interest gradually fades. You can keep an eye on it, but there's no need to translate "undervalued" directly into "immediate surge."
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Signal of a Bitcoin rally starting is appearing.
A bull market is a process when whales sell $BTC , which they bought at low prices, to retail investors while the price rises.
In past cycle patterns, $BTC LTH created a first rally by selling a portion of its accumulated supply. Subsequently, it saw a pattern of accumulating more supply during subsequent declines, after which a second rally proceeded.
In general, the second rally recorded a much larger rise than the first rally, and the cycle ended as LTH lost a significant portion of their supply.
The first rally of this cycle began in January 2023 and continued until December 2025. During this process, LTH repeatedly bought and sold $BTC . Subsequently, during the decline,they explosively increased their supply by buying far more than their selling amount.
Recently, the increase trend in LTH supply has stopped, and a decrease has begun. Based on previous patterns, the second rally is starting.
In the 2013 cycle, the gap between the first and second rally was 8 months. In the 2017 cycle, it was 17 months. And in the 2021 cycle, it was 16 months.
In this cycle, 31 months have passed since the first rally. This is a completely different pattern from previous cycles. The second rally was delayed as spot ETFs were launched, institutional funds flowed in, and buying by new "whales" continued.
However, the important fact is that LTHs hold the largest amount of $BTC in history.
And that $BTC supply from LTHs has started to decrease.How is the altcoin market doing now?
The Others Market Cap, which excludes major altcoins from the evaluation, has successfully remained above the key support range at the monthly close.
We have entered August, and the critical $150B level is still being stubbornly defended in this current move.
For the Others Market Cap, the danger is not over yet; our proximity to the support level greatly increases vulnerability.
As I have pointed out for some time, if the Clarity Act vote does not yield a positive result immediately, I expect this weakness to persist until October.
Some altcoins have already lost their local bottom levels, and in this price action, such assets are unlikely to show strong performance in the near term.
Even if the Others Market Cap touches the X region, I expect a rapid rebound starting from the last quarter of this year.
I continue to hold positions in major altcoins.
Will the Clarity Act eventually be legislated?
U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune believes a vote is still possible before August 7.
The Clarity Act requires 60 votes, so Democratic support is necessary.
Agencies like the SEC and CFTC have stated that if the Clarity Act is not legislated, they are prepared to take proactive action.
This sharing does not constitute investment advice.Tesla $XTSLA actually has "two sets of books" now: one is the real cash earned from selling cars, energy storage, and services; the other is the big promises made by FSD, Robotaxi, and robots. After the earnings report, the stock price pulled back. The core issue is not whether it "fell enough," but whether the money earned from selling cars can sustain until the AI business truly becomes profitable.
First, looking at the current reality: Q2 revenue was $28.2 billion, up 26% year-over-year, but operating profit was only $400 million, down 57% year-over-year. The automotive gross margin was 16.9%, and pressure remains. In the first half of the year, it generated $8.6 billion in operating cash flow and invested $8.3 billion in equipment, basically spending almost all the money earned, leaving little leftover. It's not dangerous, but definitely not easy.
Next, looking at the future: the market assigns a high valuation, not based on how many cars are sold now, but on the imagined potential of the AI business. However, product progress does not equal profitability. What really needs to be awaited are verifiable commercialization signals such as FSD subscriptions, Robotaxi payments, and robot mass production—not just plans in a PPT.
So for the next quarter, I’m only focusing on three things: whether automotive gross margin and deliveries can both stabilize; whether operating cash flow can continue to cover equipment investments; and whether there is solid commercialization evidence for FSD/Robotaxi.
If the automotive business can hold the bottom line, then the story can stand at the ceiling. The pullback is not a reason to buy; price only sets the starting point, business evidence determines position size.
What do you think Tesla should prove next: automotive gross margin, cash flow capability, or autonomous driving commercialization? #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Coinbase has recently once again prominently pushed the CLARITY Act, this time with noticeably more urgency than before.
A recent official survey shows that 82% of Americans believe the existing financial system needs reform. However, it should be noted that this data comes from a poll commissioned by Coinbase, reflecting public dissatisfaction with the traditional financial system, and does not mean that 82% of people support the CLARITY Act.
So far, the bill has made some progress. In July 2025, the House of Representatives passed the bill with a vote of 294 to 134; in May 2026, the Senate Banking Committee approved the committee version with a 15 to 9 vote; on July 22, Senator Lummis released a new draft integrating the opinions of the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee.
But as of August 4, the bill has not yet entered a full Senate vote. This is the most critical hurdle. Typically, the Senate needs 60 votes to proceed. Even if it passes smoothly, the House and Senate versions still need to be reconciled before it can be submitted to the President for signature and enactment.
The core goal of this bill is to clarify whether digital assets are regulated by the SEC or the CFTC.
Under the current framework, projects may still fall under SEC jurisdiction during the token issuance phase when raising funds; as the network matures and meets relevant conditions, tokens traded on secondary markets may be recognized as digital commodities, regulated by the CFTC.
At the same time, exchanges are required to complete registration, segregate customer assets, and establish trading monitoring, custody, and conflict of interest management mechanisms. It is important to emphasize that tokenized stocks are still securities and do not automatically become commodities just because they are on-chain.
The bill also provides certain protections for DeFi and self-custody wallets. Simply writing code, running nodes, or providing wallet software will not automatically be deemed an exchange. However, if the project controls the front end, matches trades, or holds user funds, it may still need to fulfill registration and anti-money laundering compliance obligations.
Stablecoins remain a contentious issue. The latest version does not allow platforms to pay interest solely because users hold stablecoins, but reward mechanisms related to payments, card spending, or platform activities may still be permitted. This clause is closely related to Coinbase's $USDC business, so $COIN is paying close attention to the bill's progress.
The biggest disagreements currently focus on consumer protection, anti-money laundering, and conflicts of interest among government officials. Some Democratic lawmakers believe the current version does not impose strict enough restrictions on government officials issuing, holding, or profiting from crypto assets.
Therefore, the CLARITY Act is still some distance from becoming law and is unlikely to be a direct catalyst for price increases in the short term.
For $BTC, since its commodity status is relatively clear, the impact may be limited; those more significantly affected will be U.S. crypto exchanges and digital assets like $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP, whose regulatory status remains under discussion. However, this bill will not directly grant any token "legal status"; the final outcome depends on the official bill content and subsequent regulatory details.
Coinbase's strong push for the bill is actually quite simple. It hopes to list more tokens, develop derivatives business, expand the $USDC ecosystem, and promote the development of on-chain finance.
What truly troubles the industry is not regulation itself, but regulatory uncertainty.
Clear rules encourage enterprise investment; constantly changing rules stifle innovation.
The real significance of the CLARITY Act is not whether it stimulates prices in the short term, but that it may determine which assets U.S. exchanges dare to list, how crypto projects can raise funds, and to what extent Wall Street capital can enter on-chain finance.
#DailyOrbit Account Position Divergence Radar
Account direction reflects sentiment, and position weight reflects strength. This set specifically identifies where these two do not align.
$BTC account numbers have already tilted towards the long side, but the scale of top positions has not followed. The current divergence comes from quantity versus weight. The price-position combination falls into increased positions during a decline, making bearish pressure more likely to continue, but it still depends on whether the price continues to break lows. The top position ratio needs to recover to 1 to indicate that position weight is starting to catch up with account sentiment.
$ETH account numbers consistently lean long, but the top position ratio remains below 1, meaning the numerical advantage has not translated into a top position advantage. The decline is accompanied by a drop in open interest, mainly characterized by old positions exiting rather than new positions continuing to push the price down. To resolve this divergence, the top position ratio needs to rise, not just rely on continued increases in account numbers.
$SOL overall and top accounts are biased towards the long side, but the top position scale remains on the short side, representing a clear account/position divergence. The 15-minute chart shows increased positions during the decline, indicating new positions are involved in this downward pressure. The account side is already leaning long; next, it depends on whether top positions are willing to shift their weight to the same side. I'll quote this early trading earnings report update, there is new progress now. PLTR surged over 25% today, directly hitting around $152, with a pre-market increase of up to 17%, and after the open, it further expanded to over 25%.
This surge actually indicates one thing: the earnings report itself hasn't improved, what changed is that the market is finally willing to believe this performance. The revenue of $194 million, up 93% year-over-year, initially received a rather lukewarm market reaction on the night of the earnings release, with after-hours gains only about 9.7% to 15%. Moreover, this stock had already dropped nearly 29% year-to-date before the earnings, completely disconnected from the S&P's repeated new highs.
Today's rally is the real catch-up. The Rule of 40 score was officially updated to 155%, even more exaggerated than the 145% I mentioned before. The total contract value of U.S. business rose to $2.13 billion, up 153% year-over-year. With these numbers presented, the market has no reason to continue pricing it with the previous discount logic.
Deutsche Bank directly raised the target price to $200 this time, and 24/7 Wall St's model gives a target price of $157, implying nearly 25% upside from the current price.
My own view is that today's bullish candle essentially corrects the overly cautious initial reaction on earnings night; it is not due to any new incremental positive news. The earnings report has long been there; it's just that the market shifted from doubt to belief, with less than 24 hours in between. $PLTR $SKHYNIX #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% Access to electricity is becoming one of the biggest competitive advantages in Bitcoin mining.
Bernstein says Texas Governor Greg Abbott's order to audit data center projects awaiting power-grid approval could slow the rollout of new facilities across the state. While the review may delay additional capacity, it could increase the value of existing Bitcoin mining and AI data centers that already have reliable access to power.
For the crypto industry, this is more than an infrastructure story. Bitcoin miners depend on stable, low-cost electricity to remain profitable. If fewer new projects come online, established operators could face less competition and strengthen their market position.
The development also highlights the growing link between Bitcoin mining and AI, as both industries compete for the same energy resources. If grid constraints continue, companies with operational facilities may hold a significant long-term advantage over those still waiting for approvals.
The market will now be watching whether the audit leads to meaningful delays or simply improves the approval process. Either outcome could influence future investment in mining infrastructure.
Do you think limited power capacity will make existing Bitcoin miners more valuable, or will it slow the industry's overall growth?
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise $XRP $BTC ALAB Optical Communication Leading Stock Earnings Preview (After Market on 8/4)
Overall bullish sentiment on ALAB $ALAB
Summary in one sentence:
1. Market expectations for ALAB's earnings are quite high, making it prone to sell the news after the report
2. The largest option buy today is still the 300 put with a cumulative $1.45 million bearish volume
3. Clear major support levels at 320 and 300; if sell the news occurs, one can look to the GEX accumulation zones for positioning
——————————————
Volatility range is 300-380
Significant negative GEX accumulation below
320 will form support
Overall bullish bias
Currently, the Call Wall is stuck near $350
This means the market has relatively priced in a good earnings result for ALAB
Be cautious of a sell the news drop after earnings
Today's option flow is mainly bullish inflow, strongly correlated with the stock price approaching the Call Wall (see Figure 2)
However, the largest buy in the market today remains the 8/7 300 Put, which I view as defensive
——————————
#ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 #ISM hits a four-year high, U.S. Treasury yields fall in contrast In July, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 55.6, marking a four-year high, with new orders, production, and employment sub-indices all showing broad improvement. The manufacturing sector's expansion exceeded market expectations. According to traditional trading logic, a stronger economy would raise expectations for rate hikes and suppress U.S. Treasury yields, but this time yields across all maturities fell simultaneously, showing a clear divergence in the market.
The core reversal logic lies in cooling inflation components: the ISM prices paid index declined month-over-month, combined with easing U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions and a sharp plunge in international oil prices. Market concerns about energy-driven inflation rebounds quickly dissipated, causing inflation risk premiums to shrink significantly and funds to flow into Treasuries for safety. Additionally, the 30-year Treasury yield had previously surged, accumulating a large short position, which was rapidly covered after the data release, further pushing yields down.
Meanwhile, internal policy disagreements persist within the Federal Reserve. Even with strong economic data, most officials are wary of high rates dragging on the economy, limiting the probability of aggressive rate hikes this year. In the short term, U.S. Treasuries are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias, but inflation components remain elevated. If oil prices rebound again and CPI rises, long-term yields will still face upward pressure. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours rise of 13% Palantir's Q2 earnings significantly exceeded institutional expectations, with quarterly revenue of $1.94 billion, a year-over-year surge of 93%, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.41. After-hours stock price rose 13%, while the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.15 billion, further boosting market confidence.
The earnings boom was driven by two core businesses: the U.S. commercial segment surged 149% year-over-year, with government and enterprise demand for "sovereign AI" concentratedly released. Enterprises are reluctant to leak private data to general large models and are purchasing its secure data analysis platform; government and military business also grew 90% simultaneously, with ongoing U.S. military AI combat-related orders forming a stable base. The company’s free cash flow margin reached 63%, completely dispelling market concerns about AI companies continuously burning cash, leading institutions to raise target prices in bulk.
However, risks lurk in the market: over 80% of the company’s revenue depends on the U.S. market, highlighting customer concentration risk; the short-term rapid stock price increase has priced in some growth expectations, with valuation at historical highs. If subsequent government and enterprise AI order growth slows, it could trigger valuation corrections. Overall, the earnings report validates the unique advantages of the private AI track, with short-term positive sentiment, but future trends still need to track the sustainability of new orders. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Bitcoin has officially entered the final stage of the bear market. The failure to pass the clear bill will accelerate Bitcoin's shakeout again.
But personally, I don't think it will drop to the 30,000 or 40,000 range; at most, it will shake out near 50,000.
Everyone is focusing on the last drop of the bear market, with the FTX crash becoming the main character in Bitcoin's final shakeout.
So who will be the main force driving Bitcoin's last drop in this bear market?
I believe it is the US stock market draining liquidity and the clear bill.
This time, the main forces driving Bitcoin's last drop will be the US stock market draining liquidity and the failure to pass the clear bill together. History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
This round, altcoins haven't risen much, and Bitcoin's gains are also small compared to the last round.
Coincidentally, the US stock market has been draining Bitcoin for a year; don't underestimate the intensity of this shakeout.
Many people in the crypto community have moved to the US stock market, and there are many who have lost money or are stuck.
Retail investors hardly hold altcoins, and very few own Bitcoin.
So how much further can it fall? Unless there is another 3/12 event, it won't drop to 30,000 or 40,000.
The market is running out of time for the bears; will there be a major black swan in September or October?
The probability is very low, at least there is no trigger on the scale of COVID-19.
Finally, everyone knows that the market consensus is for Bitcoin to reach 48,000 by the end of the year.
At that time, the real price will definitely be higher than this consensus.
Currently, the failure to pass the clear bill, in my view, is a good thing; the price will surge even more in the future. $BTCOverseas shakeout ended
Recently, the shakeout in the US stock market has basically come to an end for three reasons:
· Deleveraging (Silicon Valley genius traders' liquidations + South Korea);
· New AI narrative (Amazon + Microsoft earnings, mid-to-lower stream AI monetization);
· Weak dollar (Trump TACO + intervention in yen exchange rate).
Next, the US stock market will return to the tech mainline, with short-term positions gradually returning to standard allocation. As the midterm elections begin to unfold, the market is expected to gradually reduce volatility and rise steadily.
In commodities, non-ferrous metals continue to perform, with copper surpassing $14,000. The US expectation of imposing additional tariffs on metals continues to ferment.
Gold and Bitcoin have withstood the AI-driven sell-off and remain stable, mainly benefiting from the dollar falling back below 100. Both are dollar substitutes, and a weak dollar environment favors their performance.
However, the dollar is unlikely to fall sharply next because AI and US stocks remain attractive, and as long as the yen does not break the key 150 level, it cannot trigger large-scale carry trade unwinding. On the contrary, over time, there will be renewed attempts to target the yen to contest the 160 level. So gold still needs a catalyst in the short term; it depends on whether Friday's nonfarm payrolls will surprise to the upside.
The A-share market surged today, with tech returning to the main theme like US stocks, while old economy stocks are adjusting again due to the disappointment of expectations from an important meeting.
However, tonight there was negative news about optical modules: the US plans to restrict imports of new model data center optical modules produced by Chinese companies, which is expected to drag down the ChiNext board tomorrow.
The tech rivalry between China and the US is long-term. Domestic computing power is a relatively more stable choice, while overseas computing power chains may continue to be affected by volatility. But there is no need to worry too much; this is likely a prelude to the September meeting between the two sides, and we can respond move by move.
August started well; the rebound will be a gradual M-shaped wave. Do not chase highs; look for opportunities during declines.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks. The three most optimistic factors this week: US-Iran easing, energy prices falling + economic data easing rate pressure + AI industry chain gradually validated by earnings reports
So far, two major factors have been seen, the most important being the easing of the geopolitical Strait issue leading to a drop in energy prices, and the early morning PLTR earnings report significantly exceeding expectations, validating the AI business logic, driving US stocks higher
Basically, the only missing factor among the three major ones is the easing of rate pressure brought by macro data. However, as long as Friday's employment data is not overheated and does not add pressure to current market rate expectations, the overall performance this week will be good, especially if the US-Iran issue really returns to the negotiation stage, which will be the most obvious boost to risk markets!
The easing of the Strait of Hormuz issue is currently the biggest driver in the market. Along with the international crude oil decline, yields on the 1-year to 10-year and 30-year bond markets have slowed, the US dollar has weakened slightly, gold has risen, and US stocks have rebounded stronger combined with positive earnings reports. The QQQ index gapped up to near 716, and the market is gradually entering an optimistic phase
However, for US stocks and risk markets, the "pressure phase" has not yet passed. Optimism is fine, but don't get ahead of yourself! #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 If the CLARITY Act is not passed in August, will the market be disappointed?
Many people worry that if the CLARITY Act does not come into effect in August, the crypto market might enter a vacuum period.
But personally, I believe the market trades on expectations, not results.
Many major market moves don’t start after the official announcement of news; instead, they happen as the market prices in expectations in advance.
Looking back at 2024, Bitcoin didn’t start rising only after the November election ended; it began to rally early in September as market expectations gradually formed, then broke historical highs and continued a strong uptrend.
So, even if the CLARITY Act is delayed in August, it doesn’t necessarily mean the positive outlook disappears.
The market may continue to trade around several directions:
First, regulatory policies gradually becoming clearer.
No matter when it is finally passed, the overall trend toward industry compliance remains unchanged.
Second, changes in Federal Reserve policy.
If future rate cut expectations strengthen and liquidity improves, risk assets usually receive support.
Third, market chip structure.
After previous adjustments, some high-leverage funds have exited, the market has undergone a certain degree of cleansing, and subsequent upward resistance may decrease.
Of course, the market won’t always rise unilaterally; there may still be fluctuations or even pullbacks.
What really matters is not predicting daily ups and downs, but maintaining sufficient positions and patience when the trend becomes clearer.
The market always rewards those who are prepared.
If in the coming months policy expectations, liquidity environment, and capital sentiment resonate, the second half of the year is still worth watching.
But any viewpoint is only a probability judgment, not a certainty.
The most important thing in trading is always risk control, so you can stay in the market. #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 $HOME Does $HOME have suspicion of being controlled by a whale?
There are certain signs of control, but currently there is not enough evidence to prove malicious manipulation or a scam.
Reasons are as follows:
1. Price crashed over 90% after launch
HOME's historical high was about $0.069, currently the lowest has dropped to around $0.0055, a retracement of over 90% from the high.
This kind of trend usually has three scenarios in the crypto space:
* VC project unlocking selling pressure
* Market makers withdrawing liquidity
* Whales pumping and dumping
HOME seems more like the first and second scenarios.
2. FDV pressure still exists
Currently:
* Circulating supply about 4.2 billion tokens
* Total supply 10 billion tokens
* More than 50% of tokens are still locked
This means:
If unlocking continues,
The market needs continuous new capital to absorb the supply.
Otherwise, the price is prone to continuous decline.
This is a common problem for many VC tokens.
3. Abnormally high trading volume
Currently:
* Market cap about $24 million
* 24-hour trading volume about $10 million to $12 million
Turnover rate is very high.
Usually indicates:
* Active quantitative market making
* Intense short-term capital competition
* Frequent position changes by large holders
Not necessarily whale control.
But there is definitely strong capital intervention.
4. Strong institutional background
HOME is backed by:
* Mechanism Capital
* Investors related to LayerZero founding team
* BanklessVC
* Multiple leading DeFi project partners
Therefore:
From the background perspective, it does not look like a pump-and-dump coin.
But good background ≠ guaranteed price increase.
Many VC tokens also drop over 90%.
Technical analysis
Currently in:
Oversold state
From 0.069 down to around 0.005:
* Most short-term holders are at a loss
* Panic selling has basically been released
But the problem is:
No obvious capital inflow has been seen yet.
So:
Short term
Range:
* Support: 0.005~0.006
* Resistance: 0.009~0.012
If it breaks below 0.005:
It may continue to test lower levels.
Is it controlled like $LAB?
I think:
HOME ≠ LAB
Differences:
LAB:
* Obvious Ponzi scheme characteristics
* Weak fundamentals
* Mainly relies on emotional hype
HOME:
* Has a real product
* Has institutional investment
* Has a user base
* Has trading volume support
Therefore:
HOME looks more like a project led by VCs and market makers, not a pure Ponzi scheme. $SLX If $DOGE eventually integrates with Elon Musk's X Money, it will be far more than just another ordinary cryptocurrency integration; it could become a significant experiment in the fusion of social media, digital payments, and mass finance.
In April 2026, X Money officially launched its early public beta, first rolling out fiat wallets, peer-to-peer transfers, and Visa debit card services, covering more than 40 states in the U.S. and targeting hundreds of millions of monthly active users. However, the highly anticipated $DOGE was not included in the initial list of supported assets. Because of this, the market is even more focused on the question: if it is officially integrated in the future, what kind of impact will it bring?
From a market perspective, any statement Elon Musk has made about $DOGE has previously triggered intense price volatility. But if X Money truly supports $DOGE, the market logic will shift from emotional speculation to being driven by real payment demand. Even if only a small portion of X users use $DOGE for tipping or micro-payments, it could bring millions or even more new active wallets.
From an application standpoint, $DOGE has natural advantages. Its 1-minute block time can meet near real-time payment needs, and its low transaction fees are very suitable for cross-border micro-payments, which aligns well with the high-frequency, small-amount transaction scenarios typical of social platforms.
Of course, regulation remains one of the biggest challenges.
By 2026, the U.S. SEC has defined $DOGE as a Digital Commodity rather than a Security, which to some extent reduces regulatory risk. However, payment services are far more complex than trading platforms, involving anti-money laundering (AML), custody of funds, tax reporting, and consumer protection among other aspects.
Elon Musk has previously stated that user fund security must be handled with great caution, which is why X Money first launched fiat services rather than crypto payments. If $DOGE is supported in the future, the platform must strike a balance between innovation and compliance.
Meanwhile, the Dogecoin ecosystem continues to develop.
The Dogecoin Foundation is steadily advancing its technical roadmap, and its commercial project GigaWallet is helping merchants more easily accept $DOGE payments. If integration with X Money happens in the future, there will be an opportunity to build a complete creator economy ecosystem: users can directly tip content creators with $DOGE, the platform charges only minimal fees, and funds arrive almost instantly, offering higher efficiency and lower costs compared to traditional payment methods.
However, risks cannot be ignored.
$DOGE has a fixed annual issuance of 5 billion tokens, meaning there must be continuous new real demand to absorb its inflationary pressure. If payment application growth is insufficient, its price may still mainly rely on market sentiment.
Additionally, $DOGE has long been highly tied to Elon Musk's personal influence, which is one of the biggest structural risks. If regulatory environments change or X adjusts its strategic direction, the entire payment ecosystem could be affected.
It is worth noting that X Money’s initial products did not support $DOGE, which itself sends a signal: from Musk’s perspective, compliance and stability currently take precedence over market expectations.
If $DOGE is truly integrated into X Money in the future, it may cause significant price volatility and rapid user growth in the short term; in the medium term, it could form a complete closed loop of social interaction, payments, and value circulation, pushing $DOGE to gradually transition from a "meme coin" to a practical digital commodity; in the long term, its ultimate success will depend on whether it can secure a place in the global payments market.
At this stage, all of this remains market expectation rather than established fact. For investors, rather than guessing prices, it is better to continuously focus on what X officially launches, not just what Musk says.
#DailyOrbit #OKXTraderVoices I now have an increasingly strong feeling: in this cycle, the much-anticipated “altcoin season” will most likely not appear in the way everyone is familiar with.
In the past, the market went BTC first, then ETH, and finally altcoins exploded together.
But now the capital structure is different; institutions value liquidity more, and the market leans towards a few leading projects and infrastructure. The result is that the assets that truly sustain capital inflow are often not altcoins, but BTC, ETH, stablecoins, RWA, and DeFi leaders—these more certain assets.
The problem with altcoins is that they seem highly elastic, but once the market starts to contract risk, they are the first to be abandoned.
So I increasingly feel that many people who think they are waiting for altcoin season are actually waiting for a market structure that no longer really belongs to this phase.
There may be localized bursts, but a full-blown altcoin frenzy may not replay as it did in the past. $ETH $SOL $DOGE #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% Solana's tokenomics could be heading for a major shift.
Two governance proposals are now under discussion that may significantly reduce future $SOL issuance while increasing the amount permanently removed from circulation. Recent discussions around SIMD-0550 have also accelerated the debate over Solana's long-term inflation model.
To make it easier to understand, I built a simple simulator where you can instantly see:
• How much future SOL issuance could be avoided
• The projected circulating supply by 2032 compared with the current schedule
• The estimated point where daily token burns begin to offset a much larger share of new issuance
At the moment, the network creates roughly 61,800 SOL per day while burning around 1,700 SOL.
$SOL
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise #MSTRSells1638BTC A privacy engineering company spun off from the Ethereum Foundation in July 2026, with three founders from Goldman Sachs, the Ethereum Foundation, and Status. Simply put, it's adding a layer of privacy to Ethereum, so banks dare to move their money up. Why doesn't Goldman Sachs dare to use Ethereum transfers? Let's start with a scenario. Goldman Sachs wants to transfer $500 million to another bank on Ethereum. After transferring, you can check the entire internet—who transferred it, to whom, how much, and what time and minute. For retail investors, this is called transparency, which is quite good. For Goldman Sachs, this is like posting their own fund allocation plan on the bulletin board. Peers can immediately see what you're doing by watching the chain, trading ahead of you or even shorting you. So it's not that banks don't want to use Ethereum, they're just afraid to use it. Currently, there are about $16 billion in tokenized real assets (RWAs, which convert government bonds and bonds into on-chain tokens), and around $159 billion in stablecoins are in operation. But the real big money—those trillion-yuan institutional funds—has never come in. The reason is simple: Ethereum is a fully public ledger, and once banks expose customer identities, counterparty relationships, or holding strategies on-chain, GDPR and bank secrecy laws cross all compliance boundaries. Others have tried to solve this issue before, but they have always gone to extremes. Either they don't hide it at all (banks don't dare to use it), or they hide it too tightly—like mixers, which can't even be investigated by regulators and end up being crushed by governments worldwide. EthSystems wants a third path: selective disclosure. A sum of money was transferred overPalantir's revenue grows 93%, AI applications begin to show commercial value
Palantir delivered an earnings report that exceeded expectations.
After the U.S. market closed on August 3, the company announced its Q2 financial results, with revenue reaching $1.94 billion, surpassing previous forecasts, and adjusted earnings per share also beating analyst predictions. Following the earnings release, the stock price rose about 13% in after-hours trading.
The biggest highlight of this report is not just the revenue growth, but that AI software is entering more real business scenarios.
In recent years, AI investments have mainly focused on computing power, chips, and infrastructure. Nvidia provides computing capabilities, cloud computing companies expand data centers, while Palantir takes a different path—helping enterprises and governments apply AI capabilities to actual workflows.
The Q2 growth mainly came from U.S. operations, with U.S. commercial revenue continuing rapid growth and government business also expanding.
Palantir's strength is not in building foundational models but in long-term accumulation in data integration, analytical decision-making, and industry applications. For large enterprises and government agencies, AI truly creates value not only through model capabilities but also through integration with their own business systems.
This is the core reason for Palantir's sustained growth in recent years.
However, high growth also comes with higher demands.
As more tech companies enter the enterprise AI software field, future competition will not only focus on technical capabilities but on who can continuously convert AI capabilities into customer revenue.
Palantir's upward revision of its full-year revenue guidance indicates that enterprise AI demand is still expanding. But whether it can maintain rapid growth depends on the pace of commercial customer expansion and the long-term usage of AI products.
The AI industry is gradually moving from infrastructure construction to application implementation.
Truly valuable companies are not just those with AI technology but those that can make customers willing to pay continuously.
Palantir's earnings report offers not a simple AI story but proof of how a company is bringing AI into real business environments.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $GRVT
#Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% #财报观察员：AMD and SpaceX are about to submit their reports, Circle is the finale
The upcoming "report cards" are not just about the performance of individual companies
They resemble a concentrated inspection of three hot sectors: AI, commercial aerospace, and stablecoins
The most critical question for AMD is whether AI chip demand has truly shifted from "expectation" to "orders"
The market is no longer satisfied with growth stories alone; it cares more about data center revenue, MI300 series shipments, customer adoption pace, and whether gross margins can continue to rise
If the AI business continues to exceed expectations, AMD has the chance to prove it is not just an alternative under Nvidia's narrative
Otherwise, no matter how high the valuation theme is, it will return to actual performance fulfillment
SpaceX's significance goes beyond just being an aerospace company
Starlink user growth, launch frequency, commercial revenue, and cash flow capability determine whether the market is willing to continue paying a premium for "space infrastructure"
In the past, people bought imagination; now they want to see if, after scaling, a truly replicable and sustainable business model can emerge
Finally, Circle might be the most noteworthy variable in this round of observation
The stablecoin scale is just the surface; what truly affects valuation is whether interest income is stable, whether compliance barriers can be established, and whether USDC can upgrade from a trading tool to a global payment and settlement network
When the market starts discussing the future of stablecoins, what Circle actually delivers is an answer about crypto financial infrastructure
AI looks at computing power monetization
Aerospace looks at commercial closed loops
Stablecoins look at compliance and cash flow
Stories can boost sentiment, but earnings reports confirm prices
In this round, who can deliver, and who is just telling stories, will soon be answered
For communication only, not investment adviceThe Ultimate Review of a Century-Long Test: The Ironclad Defensive Rules of Veteran Traders in a Zero-Sum Air Grinder
At this ultimate milestone of the 100th article, I just want to tell you the harshest truth: stop finding any technological excuses for your greed.
In this crypto grinder long since dominated by multinational capital, high-yield U.S. debt, and zero-cost chips, the retail investors’ daily fantasies of “doubling wealth, decentralized revolution, algorithms beating tradition” are nothing but a carefully packaged one-way money-sending game in the face of ruthless dimensionality reduction harvesting by Wall Street and project teams. If you can’t recognize the bottom cards of the food chain during this cold, deleveraging garbage time in August, your principal is doomed to vanish in the next round of physical liquidation.
A large number of retail investors repeatedly cutting losses in the market yet still crazily adding leverage to chase the next 100x altcoin watch Twitter daily for all kinds of nonsense press releases about “the bullish turning point has arrived, bottom-fishing golden opportunities, hold on and wait for rate cuts.”
Everyone thinks every crash is a blessing to buy cheap, believing themselves to be the chosen ones who can outperform the house.
But take a close look at the bloody data and facts I dissected in the previous ninety-nine posts:
The coordinated U.S.-Japan forex intervention smashed through 156, triggering yen liquidations and dumping crypto as the fastest liquidatable trash.
The U.S. Treasury’s Q3 borrowing reached $739 billion, issuing new debt forcing Wall Street primary dealers to hold cash, directly bleeding the secondary market physically.
Star public chains Aptos and LayerZero saw tens of millions of tokens unlocked, with teams and VCs dumping zero-cost chips onto order books like rain.
Heavy staker EigenLayer’s locked TVL plummeted 27% because AVS’s real yield approached zero, cutting off the Ponzi flywheel’s power.
Even Pump.fun’s founder, who claimed a fair launch, coldly laid off 40 senior employees on the eve of token unlock, physically reneging on obligations.
This tore off the bleakest veil from all technological faith.
In this capital division of labor, let’s do the ultimate survival math.
Project teams use zero-cost code chips to recklessly exchange for USD cash during unlock periods; Circle lies on $71.8 billion in U.S. debt reserves, earning $300 million monthly risk-free at 5.28% high interest.
Meanwhile, you bear fatal risks on-chain—multisig scams, contract hacker social engineering phishing, private key exposure—and still add high leverage in the secondary market, serving as free liquidity cannon fodder for their exit and cash-out.
This is not financial innovation; it is a dimensionality reduction war where traditional finance cages wild tokens and eliminates air bubbles.
During the writing of these 100 articles, I myself repeatedly paid tuition with principal in the market’s storms. I endured the pain of altcoins being bloodied during nonfarm crashes, and the brutal liquidation of longs crushed by illiquid dumps within a minute during currency storms. When I saw these on-chain bottom orders calculated to the millimeter by Wall Street and project teams, a cold wind blew down the back of my neck. I realized that before objective physical laws, any sentiment and high leverage are like an ant trying to stop a chariot. Last night, without hesitation, I completely cleared all my leveraged loan positions, leaving only the cleanest native spot BTC defense.
This muscle memory bought with real money liquidation preserved my spark to survive this great purge.
In a zero-sum endgame, defense is the only offense.
A question for you: Facing this air grinder that has weathered a hundred days of storms and whose foundation has long been thoroughly deconstructed and reorganized by traditional capital, do you really think those fragile high-leverage longs in your hands can laugh last in this August destined for massive clearing, or are you just wishfully contributing the last cheap short fuel to this century-long final exam’s closing operation?
#美日确认联合购汇 💀 SOL at $74 — Standing above $50 for 998 consecutive days, yet the price has dropped 75% from 295
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SOL is currently at $73.72, up about 1.2% in 24 hours. After crashing over 75% from the January high of $295, it has recorded 10 consecutive months of red candles — the longest losing streak in SOL's history. However, it has closed above $50 for 998 consecutive days, the longest record at this price level.
📊 Four data sets reveal the truth:
1. Technicals: $74 is the ceiling, with two looming risks below
SOL is constrained by a descending trendline that has suppressed its upward movement since May. After intraday reaching 74.23 and then retreating under pressure, this is a corrective move after a decline, casting doubt on the bulls' continuation. The first resistance is at $74.8-75 (50-day moving average resistance); only a volume-backed break above this will start a rebound. The first support is at $72.0-72.2, holding which maintains consolidation; strong support is at $69-70, and a confirmed break below opens the downside.
2. ETFs: Only $14.62 million inflow in July, crushed by ETH and XRP
In July, Solana ETF net inflow was only $14.62 million — Ethereum ETF inflow was $365 million, Bitcoin ETF inflow was $172 million, even XRP ETF ($27.29 million) outperformed SOL. Institutional capital's attitude toward SOL is selective rather than broad demand.
3. On-chain: People are using the chain, but no one is buying the coin
Solana network daily active addresses remain above 1.67 million, with 609,000 active trading wallets in July hitting a seven-month high. But SOL price remains stagnant — real user growth contrasts with speculative capital retreating, an extreme divergence.
4. Dual deflation proposals: The largest token economic reform in history
Two key governance proposals are underway:
· SGP-0002 (Accelerated Deflation): Raises annual deflation rate from 15% to 30%, reducing issuance by about 18.9 million SOL over six years, supported by 27.19 million SOL (threshold 41.9%)
· SGP-0003 (Resource Burn): Daily SOL burn increased from about 648 to 7,500-9,000
If both proposals pass, SOL will undergo the largest deflationary transformation ever — the more active the network usage, the more SOL is burned.
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🧠 My judgment:
Short term: $74 is the descending trendline resistance. A volume-backed hold above $75 targets $78-79; a confirmed break below $72 points directly to $69-70. BTC has risen above 63,000 but ETH and SOL have not clearly followed, so it’s too early to call a trend reversal.
Medium term: SOL is undergoing the growing pains of transforming from a "high-beta alt" to a "deflationary asset" — the ecosystem is growing, tokenomics are improving, but the price is falling. Standing above $50 for 998 days shows the bottom is rising; 10 consecutive red monthly candles show the top is lowering — converging to an extreme, with direction about to be decided.
SOL at $74: people are using the chain, voting to burn tokens, buying ETFs — but the price just won’t rise. This divergence will eventually be corrected.
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Discuss in the comments: Will SOL break below 70 first or rebound to 80 first? 👇
#SOL #Solana #ETF #DeflationProposal #CryptoMarketAnalysis $SOL $XAMD will release its Q2 earnings tonight, with numbers coming out around 4:15 AM tomorrow, and the conference call about 45 minutes later.
First, a strange thing about Q1: data center revenue increased by 400 million, but total revenue actually decreased by 17 million because client, gaming, and embedded segments offset the gains. So in the Q1 report, there's no clear sign that AI is accelerating growth.
The Q2 midpoint guidance is 11.2 billion, 947 million more than Q1, so total revenue must move this time. But the key issue is: the Instinct accelerator card revenue you most want to see isn’t listed separately in the report; it’s bundled with EPYC server CPUs under "data center," and there’s no breakdown in the 10-Q either.
However, management gave some clues during the call: Q2 data center revenue is expected to grow double digits quarter-over-quarter, and server CPU revenue is up more than 70% year-over-year. But after those comments, there was no further detail, so it’s impossible to verify against the report afterward.
Keep a close eye on data center revenue tomorrow morning: management’s lower bound is double-digit quarter-over-quarter growth, corresponding to about 6.35 billion. How far the actual number is from 6.35 billion will reveal more about who is really driving Q2 than whether it "beat or missed expectations." #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Behind BTC's sideways movement, the quiet leveraged reset market created by position liquidations has been stuck in the 64K~66.5K range for 12 consecutive days, so why is volatility actually decreasing? Since the high of 66.5K on July 21, BTC has been fluctuating within a narrowing range for 12 consecutive days. On the surface, it appears to be sideways movement without direction, but the fact that total market open interest has dropped by about one-third during the same period signals a different signal from a simple correction. The price has held but many positions have been liquidated, meaning that the reaction speed and intensity may vary when directional triggers occur in the future. - Key Fact: After BTC peaked at 66.5K on July 21, OI decreased by one-third over 12 days - Market Reaction: Position reduction occurred before price declines, lowering liquidation risk - Observation Point: Spot trading volume has decreased while the proportion of derivatives increased, with both funding and basis remaining slightly flat. The essence of this sideways movement is not a lack of direction, but rather a reduction in leverage. At midnight, I stared at BTC and found it back to 64,000. The string in my heart that had been tense all day suddenly relaxed halfway. Why is everyone who shouted yesterday "a big drop is coming" silent now? This isn't the first time I've been educated by the market for carrying orders. A few days ago, I bought several long lots. Seeing the floating losses grow, I was conflicted, but in the end, I couldn't handle the mental exhaustion and decided to cut my losses. But the result was that after cutting off, the price rose, as if the market was just watching my small position and putting on a show. Later, I realized one thing: I didn't lose because I looked in the wrong direction, but because of the mismatch in position size and rhythm. Now my approach has changed. Set stop-loss before placing a trade, leave once it's in place, and don't give yourself an excuse to "wait any longer." Taking on the order and worrying every day about losing or being liquidated is truly unbearable; only those with a margin ratio below 200% can truly feel that suffocating feeling. Last night, I tried a BTC trade plus two altcoins, held lightly, made 100 USD, then quit. This feeling is much more comfortable than holding trades. Let me talk about the changes in capital preference I've observed: - In this round of correction, BTC and ETH are clearly more resilient than altcoins, indicating that big money hasn't exited, but are just shrinking and hiding in areas with higher certainty. - The rebound in altcoins is very weak, indicating that interest in high-beta assets is declining, and risk appetite hasn't truly recovered—it's only temporarily stabilized—judging by trading volume, this pullback feels more like short covering rather than new capital inflow, so the sustainability is questionable. The logic behind the bullish trend is, for example:AI Morning Report｜AI Infrastructure and Semiconductor Sectors Strongly Rebound Pre-Market 🚀
AI infrastructure has once again become the core focus of the pre-market.
$QQQ is at 706 (+0.9%) pre-market, $SOXX at 528 (+3.9%), indicating that Monday’s "software outperforming hardware" trend is shifting. Although $PLTR continues to rise to 144 (+14.5%) driven by positive earnings, the real capital focus has returned to the AI infrastructure supply chain.
Key pre-market gainers include: • $MRVL 211 (+8.9%) • $VRT 277 (+5.3%) • $SNDK 1,356 (+5.3%) • $AMD 510 (+5.2%) • $MU 870 (+4.9%) • $ARM 251 (+4.8%)
The news flow also continues to favor AI infrastructure. Reuters reports that the Trump administration is drafting restrictions on new imports of Chinese optical modules to U.S. data centers. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reveals that several banks are negotiating a $15 billion data center loan for Anthropic, backed by Google. The Financial Times reports that Google has set up a financing plan for Anthropic totaling about $200 billion, with over $150 billion allocated to TPUs and related AI infrastructure.
Market capital is expanding from merely chasing GPUs to the entire AI infrastructure supply chain. If the optical module import restrictions are officially implemented, non-Chinese optical communication and network equipment suppliers are expected to gain better market share and pricing power. Google's continued investment in Anthropic also implies that demand for power, cooling, networking, and storage AI infrastructure still holds long-term growth logic, even without new cloud computing giant earnings catalysts today.
If $SOXX gives back gains and flattens during the session, and the software sector retakes the market leadership, it may indicate that the current rise is just pre-market squeeze capital rather than a new round of comprehensive revaluation for AI infrastructure.
Sources: Reuters / WSJ / FT / Company Releases
#DailyOrbit $BTC has dropped from 200,000 to 60,000 since February, and after half a year it’s still hovering here. Many people ask daily when the ultimate shakeout will come. The latest data provides the answer: the seller exhaustion index has already fallen to the level seen at the end of the previous bear market, even about 40 days earlier in terms of timing.
The so-called end of the bear market means all that needed to be sold has been sold, selling pressure is exhausted, and demand once again exceeds supply. The current on-chain data reflects exactly this picture: holders with less than 1 to 100 coins are selling, while whales holding over 100 coins are buying. Buy orders around 60,000 far exceed those still wanting to sell. This explains why the price looks weak but never breaks below 60,000.
Even MicroStrategy, originally seen as the biggest black swan this round, hasn’t caused a crash by selling coins: last time they sold 3,600 coins, and yesterday announced selling over 1,600 more. After the market learned this, it actually rose, treating the continuous deleveraging as good news.
So the healthy mindset going forward is: buy when lower prices appear; if not, be mentally prepared that it won’t fall much deeper. The judgment for this round’s bottom is still forming in the 50,000 to 60,000 range. In the current market, driven only by quant and market makers mechanically going back and forth, frequent trading will only erode principal, while every dollar at the end of the bear market has the potential to grow into five to ten dollars.
For $ETH, positions can be gradually built between 1,800 and 1,850.
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #BTC155,000 $BTC piled up in the same cost zone—can $62,000 really hold?
CryptoQuant analysts point out that the recent pullback has brought about 155,000 $BTC into the realized price range of $62,000–$65,000, accounting for about 0.7% of circulating supply, forming the largest cost base cluster in the current market. In other words, this area has gathered a group of new holders who just completed turnover, with no obvious panic selling for now.
But having support doesn’t mean the market will immediately reverse.
This cost zone spans about $3,000, roughly 4.8% of $62,000. Bitcoin closed July at around $62,900, up 7.3% monthly. Although the price has re-entered the dense cost zone, it still hovers near the lower edge: about 1.45% above $62,000 and more than 3% below $65,000. So this area looks more like a buffer zone of repeated battles between bulls and bears, rather than a confirmed strong bottom.
Demand-side data is clearly less optimistic. Spot trading volume has dropped to lows not seen since the end of 2023, indicating the current rebound lacks active buying support; the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $61.5 million last week, ending a streak of three consecutive weeks of net inflows, with a single-day outflow reaching as high as $265 million. Institutional funds haven’t fully withdrawn but have shifted from chasing gains to a wait-and-see stance in the short term.
The derivatives market is more restrained. $BTC funding rates remain in a positive range of 0.006%–0.01%, and open interest is stable overall, with neither excessive long crowding nor heavy short positioning. This suggests the current state is closer to low-volume choppy turnover rather than an extreme condition before a one-sided market launch.
Next, I’m mainly watching three levels: whether $62,000 can sustain support, whether $65,000 can be reclaimed with volume, and whether ETFs can return to continuous net inflows. Holding $62,000 only means this batch of new cost holders is willing to hold for now; breaking above $65,000 with rising volume would indicate real demand is back. Conversely, if $62,000 breaks down, the 155,000 $BTC cost base could turn from support into potential selling pressure.
So there’s no rush to call a bull market, nor a need to prematurely declare a bear market. The price has a bottom structure, but funds have yet to confirm it. Waiting patiently for signals is more reliable than guessing the direction.
This is purely personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 "Uncle's Night Talk | 08.04 Tuesday"
US stocks surged but capital expenditures showed divergence; Asia-Pacific opened high then weakened; BTC bottomed and rebounded, becoming one of the few bright spots on the market.
Overnight, US stock indices all closed higher. Amazon's earnings exceeded expectations, but the $220 billion AI capital expenditure increase sowed division among growth stocks.
The market reality is very fragmented: AI has already delivered profits, but the ongoing cost pressure of sustainable cash burn objectively exists, so funds are generally cautious.
🪙 Crypto Market
BTC dipped to 61800 during the Asian session, then rebounded in a V-shape back near 64000, with the 62000 support validated.
ETFs saw large single-day redemptions, with IBIT as the main outflow; ETH/BTC fell to multi-year lows, funds flocked to BTC, while altcoins continued to bleed.
A large amount of long leverage is stacked between 63000-65000; breaking upward requires stronger macro catalysts.
Market reference: observe above 62000; if effectively broken downward, reassess the trend.
□□A Shares
Narrow range with low volume throughout the day; growth lacks offensive strength; funds switch defensively between themes with no main line.
The reality in a low-volume environment: external positives rarely lead to gains; when negatives arrive, sentiment easily drags down; rebounds are only seen as rebounds.
□□🌏 Hong Kong & Asia-Pacific
Hong Kong stocks relatively resistant; slight southbound inflows but limited in strength; Asia-Pacific opened high then quickly weakened, still a pattern of risk sentiment contagion and asynchronous rebounds.
□□US Pre-Market Outlook
Futures generally strong, but sectors have diverged; software and internet are strong, chips and hardware under pressure. Tonight's US market open will determine the short-term sentiment direction for global growth assets.
💎 Today's Core Summary
US indices look good but internal divisions surface; Asia-Pacific opened high then weakened; A Shares lack volume and direction; BTC holds the lifeline but has not opened upward space yet. #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 Coldcard's stolen-coin overhang can still grow while holders scramble to migrate, so near-term BTC flow risk stays bearish. Galaxy's high-confidence estimate is 1,596 BTC across ~7.3k addresses... a suspected fourth wave would lift its modeled ceiling to 2,055 BTC, about $130m. BIP 32 lets one seed derive many child addresses, making the address tally a poor proxy for separate victims. Spoofed "hardware audit" emails are steering holders to cloned sites that install remote-access software. FreshStop shouting that the bull market is here just because stablecoins hit a new high. The new money this time is not coming to trade crypto at all.
I checked the data this morning: USDT's total market cap has reached a historic high of $118 billion, with net issuance increasing for two consecutive weeks, adding over $800 million in the past 7 days. USDC, which has been declining for more than half a year, has recently started to turn upward in market cap.
In the past, this would definitely signal new capital entering the market, causing prices to rally somewhat. But this time it's strange—BTC is still grinding back and forth around the $60,000 range, trading volume is decreasing day by day, and altcoins are barely alive, showing no sign of new money entering.
Where did the money go? From my observation, mainly three places, none of which involve buying coins.
First, the majority is parked in stablecoin yield products on exchanges earning interest. Top platforms now offer 5-6% on flexible deposits, no price volatility risk, guaranteed profit. Several friends with large funds I know are half in stablecoins earning interest, refusing to touch spot, waiting for a golden dip.
Second, some funds have shifted to tokenized US stocks and US bonds. Recently, trading volumes for targets like Hynix and Nvidia have remained high. Many who used to trade crypto have moved to assets with fundamentals, which are much more reliable than speculative altcoins.
The rest are just sitting on the sidelines holding coins, watching and waiting, not making a move without a clear signal.
Old retail investors used to believe "stablecoin issuance = bull market prelude," but that logic no longer holds.
The crypto market now is no longer a small circle with only trading as a play. Stablecoins can buy US stocks, US bonds, and earn fixed interest. With more options, funds naturally won’t all rush into crypto to push prices up.
So don’t shout bull market just because of issuance, and don’t say there’s no new capital just because of sideways trading. The money is already on the sidelines; everyone is just waiting for a clearer signal, a cheaper price.
At this stage, it’s a test of patience. Those who can’t hold inside the market will cut losses, then outside money will come in to pick up chips.
What do you think about this stablecoin new high—is it a bull market precursor or just funds lying elsewhere?
$BTC Who still believes that the US and Iran can successfully reach an agreement?
In mid-July, Iranian media publicly released a "revenge" assassination list containing 13 names, with the top two being Netanyahu and Trump.
It also includes the US Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, Central Command Commander, and the US Ambassador to Israel;
Israel's Foreign Minister, Defense Minister, and Chief of General Staff of the Defense Forces;
and even the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy.
Although not officially acknowledged by Iran,
shortly before the list was published, the son of the late Khamenei, now Iran's Supreme Leader—Mujtaba—just made a "revenge" vow.
The media that published this assassination list is "Hamshahri" (Citizen Newspaper), a media outlet under the Tehran city government.
Perhaps the back-and-forth between the US and Iran, causing oil prices to fluctuate repeatedly, will become the norm?
At least the US President is still on this revenge list, making it very difficult for the US and Iran to reach an agreement.
#美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 US Stock Optical Module Surge: It's Not More Orders, but the "Market Access Certificate" Suddenly Became Valuable
Recently, the US stock optical module sector has collectively surged, with Applied Optoelectronics rising nearly 17%, Coherent and Lumentum up about 10%, and FabriNet increasing nearly 5%. Meanwhile, the A-share optical module sector has faced increased pressure due to a rumor. This divergence is not because of a sudden global increase in optical module demand, but because the market is re-pricing the value of the "US market access certificate."
1. Competition in AI Data Centers Has Entered a New Stage
Competition in AI data centers has evolved from "who has more GPUs" to "who can control data flow between GPUs." Optical modules, as the "highways" in computing clusters, with 800G, 1.6T, and future 3.2T modules, determine whether tens of thousands of chips can truly form a supercomputer.
Domestic manufacturers in the high-speed pluggable optical module field not only have price advantages but have also achieved comprehensive leadership in scale, yield, and delivery capabilities. What the US truly fears is not buying a few more domestic modules today, but that as AI data centers proliferate, domestic suppliers become indispensable infrastructure.
2. Industry Rules May Change
The core of this issue is not just security but also potential changes in industry rules. In the past, competition in the optical module industry mainly focused on technology, cost, and delivery capabilities. In the future, it may also depend on who can obtain the "market access certificate" for the US market.
This explains why several US-listed companies suddenly surged. The market is not trading on a sudden increase in global optical module demand but on the possibility that if domestic suppliers are restricted, order bargaining power and valuations may shift to non-domestic suppliers.
3. Capacity Replacement Is Not Easy
One easily overlooked point is that stock prices can be replaced in ten minutes, but production capacity cannot. Domestic manufacturers have long held a large-scale delivery advantage in high-speed pluggable modules. Although US manufacturers have capabilities in lasers, optical chips, coherent optics, and modules, they may not be able to fill all gaps in a short time.
The final result may not be US companies easily taking all orders but rather module price increases, longer certification cycles, and higher cloud provider construction costs. The benefits to several US-listed companies vary:
- Applied Optoelectronics: Closest to direct replacement logic, as it is expanding 800G capacity in the US and Taiwan and has already secured 1.6T bulk orders.
- Coherent and Lumentum: More like upstream technology platforms, benefiting from demand for laser devices, modules, and optical switching.
- FabriNet: May benefit from US manufacturers shifting more production to Southeast Asia.
4. Risks and Opportunities for A-Share Optical Modules
Looking at A-shares, Zhongji Xuchuang and New Easysun are the most sensitive, not because orders will disappear tomorrow, but because both companies have very high overseas revenue proportions—Zhongji Xuchuang about 91%, New Easysun about 96%. Note that overseas revenue does not equal US revenue but indicates their sensitivity to overseas cloud customers and trade rules.
If future restrictions only target new models, the real evaluation may not be on products already shipped in large volumes but on the growing 1.6T and upcoming 3.2T. In other words, short-term revenue cliffs may not occur, but long-term market reassessment of US business growth potential is possible.
Upstream component companies like Tianfu Communication and Guangku Technology are more complex: if restrictions only target complete modules, they may still supply US manufacturers or Southeast Asian manufacturing systems; if the scope expands to corporate identity, key components, and production sources, upstream will be more directly affected.
5. Conclusion: The Market Is Re-Pricing Risk
Therefore, what A-share optical modules truly face is not the disappearance of industry demand but that after the recent surge in US optical modules, the market suddenly needs to re-price the "US market access risk." This may bring high volatility and clear differentiation, but it is not yet appropriate to conclude that the Chinese optical module industry has lost the US market based on a plan not yet implemented.
The three key questions to watch next are:
1. Will the final determination be based on corporate identity or production location?
2. Can existing models continue to be sold?
3. Can Southeast Asian capacity obtain exemptions?
Before these questions are answered, US stocks trade on expectations, and A-shares trade on risk, not conclusions.AMD Earnings Preview (Earnings After Market Close on 8/4)
$AMD
From the options flow perspective, the 600 Call options on 8/7 and 8/5 are locking in the upper limit of the post-earnings rise, which is $600, similar to a high volatility play.
The Put Wall support is formed around $500, so the stop loss can be set near $495 to play for an overall post-earnings upward trend.
From the GEX perspective, the resistance above is very structured at 520, 530, 540, 550, 560, and 570, all showing relatively sizable GEX resistance. Therefore, AMD's rebound will not be very smooth and may be a multi-platform rebound pattern.
AMD's overall GEX is also positive, indicating the market is generally bullish on AMD. An earnings beat would also be an important milestone for the semiconductor sector.
The related $INTC will similarly benefit.
——————————
Options GEX only reflects the current options market's judgment on AMD's earnings; this is not 100% accurate and is for reference only. DYOR
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Market sentiment for SPCX has undergone a subtle shift. According to TradingBeats data, the bold long positions this morning are still holding their ground. Seven accounts worth millions of dollars hold nearly 240,000 long orders. While the book value gains aren't exaggerated, the attitude is clear—no one is retreating. The largest "0xb37" whale has an average price of $114.96 and a floating profit of only about $150,000, yet it has stubbornly held on, seemingly gambling on a $105 liquidation threshold as solid as a fortress. The morning session did give some respect, with the SPCX climbing from $114.68 to $116 and even touching a high of $117. But in the afternoon, the mood suddenly changed. Funds poured in like sharks smelling fish, but both sides split the new $75.67 million in "ammunition" evenly. Long positions increased by 38.51 million, and short positions by 37.15 million, with the overall battlefield suddenly expanding to $229 million. This wasn't a one-sided charge, but more like a probing and formation before a major battle. Subtle signals have appeared in the past hour. At this critical moment when prices rebound and earnings reports approach, 6 bulls chose to exit, while 34 shorts quietly opened new positions. Although the daily incremental volume was flat, marginal funds at the close clearly bet on the downside, or at least bought a "downside insurance." $SPCX It's like Texas Hold'em—before the flop, everyone pushes the chips, but the river hasn't been dealt yet. In the morning, bulls were betting that "the worst is over," while new shorts in the afternoon said, "The rebound is for short selling."SanDisk Extreme Reversal: Short Covering and AI Storage Narrative Reconstruction
The recent extreme stock price volatility of SanDisk essentially results from the combined effects of short covering, macro environment recovery, and AI storage narrative reconstruction. After an opening plunge of over 7%, the stock quickly recovered all losses, rebounded nearly 10% intraday at its peak, and finally closed up more than 6%, with a daily intraday range exceeding 18% from the lowest to the highest point. This extreme movement from a 7% drop to a 6% rise is not a simple reflection of the overall storage industry’s health but a market revaluation of SanDisk’s value logic.
1. Macro Environment Recovery: Direct Driver of Risk Appetite Shift
The first reason for SanDisk’s price reversal is the shift in the US stock trading environment from panic to risk appetite recovery. Brent crude oil fell nearly 5%, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.75% to 4.68%, inflation concerns eased, and the interest rate pressure suppressing growth stock valuations relaxed, leading to a broad recovery in US stocks. The S&P 500 rose nearly 1.5%, the Nasdaq gained over 2%, and the Dow Jones increased about 1.3%, hitting a record closing high. As the market continued to rise and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turned from a sharp intraday drop to gains, investors who shorted SanDisk early in the session faced immense pressure—they were no longer dealing with a single declining stock but a highly volatile stock deeply hit by panic sentiment while the index was broadly rising.
2. Short Covering: The Core Driver of the Stampede-Like Rebound
SanDisk’s rise was not a slow accumulation but a simultaneous low-level support and short covering, resulting in a stampede-like rebound. When the stock price stopped making new lows, shorts had to start covering; as shorts covered, the price rose; the rising price forced more shorts to retreat. The key to this process is SanDisk’s high volatility and previous sharp pullbacks, which rapidly worsened the risk-reward ratio for shorts continuing to short before earnings.
3. Earnings Expectations: The "Damocles Sword" for Shorts
SanDisk’s earnings report is imminent, scheduled for after the US market close on August 5, covering Q4 and full-year results, along with an investor event. This means short sellers face not only intraday weakness but also the risk of deciding whether to carry their short positions into earnings. The market’s real concerns are not just how much SanDisk earned last quarter but three critical questions: Can NAND prices continue to rise? How strong is the demand for data center and enterprise SSDs? Can management’s future guidance continue to exceed market expectations? If any of these questions receive positive answers, shorts may face further counterattacks.
4. AI Storage Narrative Reconstruction: From a Cyclical Product to a Core AI Architecture Participant
After the close, SanDisk and SK Hynix announced advancing the standardization of High Bandwidth Flash (HBF), aiming to bring NAND into AI inference systems, closer to compute units. Although this news was released late and not the direct cause of the intraday reversal, it reveals the new story SanDisk wants to tell. Previously, the market generally believed AI mainly benefited HBM, with NAND still seen as a cyclical product for traditional servers, phones, PCs, and enterprise storage. But in the AI inference era, models require not only speed but massive data capacity; not all data is worth placing in expensive, capacity-limited HBM. Large weight caches and datasets need a storage medium with larger capacity, lower cost, and closer proximity to compute units than traditional SSDs—this is the position HBF aims to fill.
If this technical path ultimately materializes, SanDisk will face not just the traditional NAND price cycle but an opportunity to re-enter the core AI architecture.
5. Key Follow-Up Observations: Earnings and Fundamental Validation
SanDisk’s extreme reversal does not mean all risks in the storage industry have disappeared. Questions remain about whether NAND prices can sustain their rise, whether the industry will expand production again, whether profit margins can be maintained, and whether SanDisk’s high valuation can be supported by earnings. But shorts must face a harsh fact: when a stock falls more than 7% intraday but ends up rising over 6%, it shows selling pressure can no longer create a one-sided crush. This does not mean bulls have completely won but that the forces of bulls and bears are approaching a new balance.
More importantly, SanDisk clearly outperformed the broader market and most semiconductor stocks last night, indicating that capital does not simply view SanDisk as a cyclical stock to be discarded. At least some capital is betting on three things: first, that the NAND upcycle is not over; second, that earnings and guidance may not be as bad as the market fears; third, that new technologies like HBF may grant SanDisk an AI entry ticket that did not exist before.
Of course, one strong rally cannot directly prove a trend reversal. A true reversal is not just a single day’s shift from down to up but that the next negative event does not produce new lows, the next earnings report continues upward, and fundamentals can support the rising valuation. So the real determinant of SanDisk’s direction ahead is not last night’s reversal candle but the August 5 earnings report—whether it can prove that high prices, high profits, and AI demand still exist. If earnings and guidance remain strong, last night may mark the first gunshot signaling short sellers’ retreat; but if price gains slow, demand disappoints, or management signals caution, last night’s violent counterattack may be just the fiercest flare before earnings.
Last night does not mean bulls have won but that the market has clearly warned shorts for the first time: storage can continue to fall, SanDisk can continue to fluctuate, but it is probably no longer so easy to make money by blindly shorting as before. $SNDK