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Spot ETF Capital Divergence: ETH Hasn't Taken Over Yet, BTC Still Holds the Steering Wheel
First, let's correct two data points that can easily mislead trading decisions.
According to Farside's final statistics, from August 3 to 7, BTC ETFs had a net inflow of about $865 million, ETH ETFs had a net inflow of about $244 million, totaling approximately $1.109 billion.
However, on August 10 Eastern Time, both actually turned to outflows: BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $144.6 million, ETH ETFs had a net outflow of about $14.6 million, so it is not "BTC outflow, ETH continuing inflow."
On-chain data should not be double-counted either. Previously monitored 6,494 BTC and the latest 7,513 BTC are most likely data from the same suspected miner-associated address at different times, with the new portion being about 1,019 BTC. The correct understanding is: this address cumulatively transferred about 7,513 BTC to Binance over about three weeks, not two whales selling a total of 14,007 BTC.
Moreover, transfers into exchanges represent potential selling pressure increase, but do not mean all have been sold yet.
My view is: ETH has not officially taken over yet; rather, after ETF marginal buying cools down, BTC's ability to absorb is being tested.
Last week’s ETF inflows exceeding $1.1 billion did not allow BTC to break through effectively, indicating spot sell orders absorbed much of the buying. Now that ETFs have turned to outflows again, if on-chain holdings continue moving closer to exchanges, rebounds will naturally face more pressure.
ETH outflow amounts are smaller but cannot be directly defined as stronger because ETH ETF scale is much smaller than BTC ETF. Real capital rotation requires at least two confirmations:
① ETH ETF net inflow resumes for 3 consecutive trading days;
② ETH/BTC breaks and holds above the near 20-day high.
Before that, ETH can only be considered "relatively resilient," not yet having taken the market’s steering wheel.
My allocation plan is: before the August 12 CPI release, no leverage added; maintain positions at BTC 50%, ETH 20%, stablecoins 30%.
After CPI release:
If BTC ETF has net inflow for 3 consecutive days and whale exchange deposits cool down, add 10% stablecoins to BTC in two increments.
If ETH ETF continues inflow and ETH/BTC confirms breakout, consider shifting 5%–10% stablecoins to ETH.
If ETFs continue outflows and potential selling pressure on exchanges expands, stay in cash and wait.
In summary: ETFs decide if there is short-term uptake, on-chain funds decide how much supply is to be sold, and post-CPI risk appetite decides if buyers are willing to continue entering.
At this stage, I still prioritize BTC; ETH may have greater elasticity but must first prove itself with relative strength.
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在
$BTC $ETH What caught my attention here is how much market information can be exposed without needing to trust a narrative.
The screenshot shows an $OKB /USDT spot market with a 15-minute chart, recent trading volume, an order book, and the latest trades. I think that matters because transparent market structure is one of the basic ideas that makes open financial systems useful: participants should be able to inspect the state of the market rather than relying entirely on someone else's interpretation.
The order book is particularly important. You can see bids and asks directly, while the chart provides the historical context around those transactions. Volume adds another layer, showing where activity actually occurred instead of simply presenting a theoretical valuation.
That doesn't make an exchange trustless. The venue still sits between the user and the underlying market, which is fundamentally different from Bitcoin's model of self-custody and decentralized verification.
But the principle is still worth paying attention to: minimize unnecessary trust, expose information clearly, and let users verify as much as possible themselves.
Bitcoin pushed that philosophy much further through cryptographic security, transparent rules, and a system where ownership doesn't depend on an intermediary approving every transaction.
I think crypto infrastructure moves in the right direction when it keeps pushing more verification toward the user. Better transparency and stronger user control are likely to remain important building blocks for the broader ecosystem.
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges Earnings Report Observer: AI Infrastructure Earnings Reports Take the Stage
In this global earnings season, the AI infrastructure industry chain is delivering concentrated results, with overseas cloud giants and domestic hardware manufacturers forming a relay of performance. The once wildly cash-burning computing power infrastructure has officially entered a critical cycle of investment payoff.
Overseas tech giants have taken the lead in performance highlights. Google Cloud's quarterly revenue surged 82% year-over-year, with a backlog of orders exceeding $510 billion. Its self-developed TPU combined with GPUs is boosting data center construction, and its annual capital expenditure has been raised to $195 billion–$205 billion. Microsoft's Azure growth rate stabilized at 43%, with over 60% of new revenue coming from AI computing power business. Copilot paid users surpassed 30 million, and computing power investment has already formed a subscription monetization loop. Amazon AWS recorded its fastest growth in 18 quarters, raising its annual capital expenditure to $220 billion, openly stating that current computing power capacity still cannot meet market demand.
The upstream industry chain is also experiencing peak prosperity. Domestic AI hardware manufacturers are rising in succession. Lenovo's annual AI server revenue surged 50%, holding an order reserve of 140 billion yuan. Inspur and H3C's computing power business revenues increased 30% and 45% year-over-year, respectively. Orders for liquid-cooled cabinets and high-speed switches continue to be full. Electrical companies like Schneider and Siemens have also achieved double-digit growth relying on data center power supply equipment. The entire chain is benefiting from the AI infrastructure dividend.
Market divergences are gradually emerging: continuous increases in capital expenditure will suppress short-term cash flow, with Google's free cash flow turning negative this quarter causing concern. However, from a long-term perspective, the demand for government and enterprise large model training and industry AI transformation is clearly rigid. Computing power infrastructure has shifted from conceptual hype to performance realization. Going forward, capital expenditure utilization and computing power payment cycles will be the core metrics determining the sector's trend.
Risk Warning: The above content is based solely on publicly available earnings data for industry analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. 📊 $CL Contract Liquidation Express (August 16)
According to liquidation data, this round of shorts was brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $59,100 $391.77 $58,700
4 hours $184,500 $81,200 $103,300
12 hours $2,058,700 $460,300 $1,598,400
24 hours $3,291,300 $474,600 $2,816,700
From the $CL liquidation data, short liquidations crushed longs in the 1-hour window, with short liquidations 149 times that of longs, marking a nuclear-level intensity of a short squeeze blitz at the start; the 4-hour short advantage continued but sharply narrowed, with the ratio dropping to 1.27, indicating marginal weakening of short squeeze momentum; the 12-hour short advantage exploded again, with short liquidations soaring to $1,598,400, 3.47 times that of longs, showing the short squeeze spanning short to mid cycles; the 24-hour short liquidations reached $2,816,700, 5.93 times that of longs. The dog whales completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on CL—shorts across short, mid, and long cycles were comprehensively targeted and liquidated, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $3.29 million. Shorts are bleeding heavily, and the short squeeze momentum is unstoppable. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 16
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: AI infrastructure is moving from "burning money" to "accounting" phase—the market is not only watching who invests more but also who profits faster.
🏗️ AI Infrastructure Earnings Relay: Cloud Revenue Accelerates, Cash Flow Tightens
In Q2 earnings season, the four major cloud providers delivered the first "report card" on AI investments. Amazon AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters; Microsoft Azure grew 43% year-over-year, with annual Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time; Google Cloud revenue hit $24.8 billion, surging 82% year-over-year. Combined cloud revenue of the four reached approximately $116.2 billion, up about 43% year-over-year.
More importantly, order backlogs. The four cloud providers' unfulfilled orders total about $2.33 trillion, soaring 188% year-over-year—future revenue visibility is improving.
But the cost is equally real. Google and Amazon have turned negative in free cash flow, and the four companies' capital expenditures soared from $39.6 billion in Q1 2024 to $151.4 billion in Q2 2026. The market is voting with its feet: rewarding companies that can convert computing power into real cloud revenue, punishing narratives with investment but no returns.
📊 CPI Released Tonight: The Scale for September Rate Hike Hangs in the Balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, the US July CPI will be released. The market expects overall CPI year-over-year to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI to drop from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Why is this CPI so critical? After July's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, the probability of a September rate hike once fell, but CME data currently shows the rate hike probability remains at 51.2%. Fed Chair Powell has clearly stated the 2% inflation target "leaves no room for maneuver." JPMorgan warns the CPI report could cause the S&P 500 to fluctuate up to 2% on the day.
💰 Nvidia $500 Billion vs Intel $15 Billion: Diverging Paths
On August 10, two chip giants simultaneously announced financing plans.
Nvidia partnered with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to establish an independent computing power financing platform, aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. Jensen Huang said "technology chips have become an investable asset class for the first time"—essentially turning GPUs from consumables into financeable infrastructure assets.
Intel announced a $15 billion common stock offering, its first public equity raise since going public in 1971. The funds will focus on advanced packaging, specialized chips, and physical AI. After the announcement, Intel's stock dropped about 4%, with the market worried about equity dilution.
Both paths lead to the same conclusion: the AI chip competition has evolved from a technology race to a capital race.
💎 Summary
Cloud providers prove AI demand is real with 43% revenue growth, but the $151.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure reminds the market—the pace of burning money has never slowed; every basis point of tonight's CPI could tip the scale for September's rate hike; and Nvidia and Intel's $500 billion and $15 billion financing plans announced on the same day declare the AI race has officially entered a "capital-intensive" new phase. When industry logic, macro narratives, and capital strategies converge on the same day, August 12 is destined to become one of the most important milestones in the 2026 AI track. #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 Tomorrow is Wednesday
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
CPI Data Expectations and Rate Hike Pricing
On the evening of August 12 (Wednesday), the US July CPI data will be released. The market expects the overall CPI year-on-year to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the core CPI to drop from 2.6% to 2.5%. This will be the first key inflation "report card" before the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Currently, CME FedWatch shows a 51.2% probability of a 25bp rate hike in September, down from nearly 60% before last week's non-farm payroll release. If the CPI is lower than expected, the probability of a rate hike may further decrease; conversely, if it exceeds expectations, it may reinforce rate hike expectations.
$BTC /$ETH Market Trends
Before the CPI release, the market is clearly in a "wait-and-see + defensive" mode. BTC briefly fell below $64,000 on August 11, hitting a low near $63,800, with obvious selling pressure above $65,000. ETH weakened in sync, dropping about 2.6% to around $1,870.
Trend Analysis
The CPI data will determine the short-term direction. If the core CPI is lower than expected (such as Goldman Sachs' forecast of 0.19%), the September rate hike expectations will cool down, and BTC is expected to reclaim $65,000; conversely, if inflation remains stubborn, BTC may test the $62,000-$63,200 range. For ETH, if it falls below $1,792, the cumulative long position liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $550 million, posing significant downside risk. Overall, before the data release, a weak and volatile pattern is likely to persist.When a green candle rose, many people thought the entire market was alive. But the rise of $BSP is precisely the most typical 🚨 example of this phenomenon. This rally looks strong, but beneath the surface, liquidity choices are actually becoming unusually cautious. Instead of pouring in every token as evenly distributed as at the start of the bull market, funds are being repeatedly moved among a small group of winners. The vast majority of projects not only failed to reap the benefits but quietly lost their relative strength. 📉 What truly illustrates the issue is the following set of data: open interest is cooling down, and enthusiasm for leverage is no longer inflated; Trading volume remained stable, neither expanding nor shrinking. This indicates that the market is in a highly disciplined phase, far from the crowd excitement seen in a mad bull state. Traders no longer chase every impulse but concentrate their chips in the patterns with the highest confidence. Smart money moves, but with great restraint—not casting a net, but aiming for it. 🎯 🧲 Currently, there are not many assets that are truly absorbing liquidity. $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP, $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS are among the few that continue to attract attention in this stock competition. And the narrative framework of the entire market is still firmly supported by a few core assets. $BTC remains the biggest liquidity magnet, and every hesitant observer will eventually have to return to it to make decisions. $ETH continues to be managed by institutions🚨 SOL $76 Extreme Tug-of-War! On-Chain Data Shows "False Boom"? $78 Decides Life or Death!
Brothers, SOL has rebounded nearly 7% from $72.49 to $77.36, breaking through a five-week descending channel. But the underlying data is extremely divided—looks good on the surface but hides danger:
📊 Current Price Status
SOL is currently quoted around the $75-77 range, down slightly about 1.4% in 24 hours. It has risen nearly 7% since the August 7 low of $72.49, but is still down over 38% for 2026.
🔥 Bullish Factors: Triple Driving Resonance
· ETF Capital Surge: On August 10, SOL spot ETF net inflow hit $8.83 million in a single day, the highest since May 12, ending a three-month stagnation
· Supply Tightening Expectations: Two governance proposals (SIMD-0550/0553) aim to raise the annual inflation burn rate from 15% to 30%, daily SOL burn could surge from 650 to 7,500-9,000 tokens
· Zero Downtime Milestone: Solana has gone 30 consecutive months without a full network outage, setting a historical record
📉 Risks: Leverage "Time Bomb"
· Overheated Funding Rate: Perpetual contract funding rate rose to about 0.01% every 8 hours, an 11-month high—the last time it was this level, SOL was above $200
· Extremely Crowded Positions: SOL futures open interest nears $1.8 billion, speculative leverage is quite crowded
· Cooling On-Chain Data: DEX trading volume and stablecoin scale have recently declined, may not support current high leverage bets
🎯 Key Levels
· Core Resistance Above: $77.5-78.7 (100 EMA pressure + dense short liquidity zone)
· Breakout Targets: $80 → $82-84 → $90
· First Support Below: $75.48 (50 EMA)
· Core Defense Line: $74-75 (losing this signals a false breakout, retesting $72-70)
💡 My View
Currently, SOL is at a dangerous node of "high-cost leveraged bets at key resistance." ETFs are buying, proposals are hyped, stories are told—but funding rates have already overextended gains. $78 is the true watershed: a volume breakout points to $80-90+; low volume stagnation or a break below $75.5 could trigger a rapid correction due to leveraged long liquidations. Wednesday's US CPI data is the biggest variable.
If $78 can't be surpassed, beware of a leverage liquidation cascade! Watch $75.5 closely!
The above is data analysis only and does not constitute investment advice, DYOR!
If you find this useful, please like 👍 and follow me for more first-hand data analysis! $SOL 🚨 Crypto ETF Inflow Streak Comes to an End
U.S. spot $BTC ETFs recorded $144.67M in net outflows on August 10, snapping a five-day streak of positive inflows.
🔴 $ETH ETFs also turned negative, posting $14.59M in net outflows and ending their four-day inflow streak.
While one day doesn't define the trend, investors will be watching closely to see whether this is a short-term pause or the beginning of a broader shift in institutional flows.
$BTC $ETH
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges
$BTC
$ETH
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#CPIToResetFedBets BTC consolidation does not mean funds are asleep — on-chain activity is quietly changing its playstyle.
BTC is currently around $63,700, with daily highs and lows only between $63,680 and $64,570, showing a clear contraction in volatility.
But DeFi has not cooled down accordingly.
ETH mainnet Gas is currently only about 0.15 Gwei, indicating very low on-chain congestion; meanwhile, Aave's TVL has risen to about $14.7 billion, up 8.2% over 30 days, with active borrowing still as high as $11.3 billion.
More interestingly, Pendle's TVL is about $1.18 billion, up 14.7% over 30 days, with an average yield of about 9.5%, indicating some funds are shifting from "betting on coin price increases" to trading interest rates and cash flow.
Solana also continues to maintain net cross-chain inflows, about $4.14 million over 24 hours, with stablecoin scale around $15.7 billion.
So the real main theme now might not be who takes over AI or Meme, but:
Volatility decline → leverage cooling → funds shifting to lending, staking, cross-chain, and yield arbitrage.
The more boring the market, the smarter the funds start calculating the capital efficiency of every penny. $BTC #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 1. Today’s three “contrasting charms” of ETH $ETH
1. The more it falls, the more it locks: staking queue 40 days
The staking queue wait time is about 40 days and 21 hours, with an annualized rate of 2.6%, still squeezing in; there are 897,000 validators and the number is still increasing.
This is not short-term gambling behavior; this is long-term capital saying: "I won’t make money from your rebound now, I’ll earn your settlement fees ten years from now."
2. ETF: Weekly buying continues, but a slight daily withdrawal first
Last week, the US ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $245 million, the most comfortable week since April; but on August 10, there was a net outflow of about $14.6 million in a single day, with ETHA alone seeing an outflow of $23.8 million.
#Ethereum11Years
$ETH
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#CPIToResetFedBets Comparison of average annual yield per block before and after the four Bitcoin halvings (text reconciliation version) 1. First halving (2012, reward: 50 BTC → 25 BTC) Average annual yield per block in the year before halving: $400 Average annual yield per block in the year after halving: $4,500 Overall yield increase: +1025% 2. Second halving (2016, reward: 25BTC →12.5BTC) Average annual yield per block in the year before halving: $6,875 Average annual yield per block in the year after halving: $30,125 Overall yield increase: +338% 3. Third halving (2020, reward: 12.5 BTC → 6.25 BTC) Average annual yield per block in the year before halving: $105625 Average annual yield per block in the year after halving: $156,612.5 Overall yield increase: +48% 4. Fourth Halving (2024, reward: 6.25 BTC → 3.125 BTC) Average annual yield per block in the year before halving: $267,500 Average annual yield per block in the year after halving: $298125 Overall yield increase: +11.45% Core trend summary From the first to the fourth halving, miners' profit growth from native Bitcoin block rewards has continuously shrunk sharply: early halving returns increased tenfold, mid-term returns still doubled, In the most recent round, it only rose slightly above 10%. The historical logic of relying solely on price increases to offset halving losses is becoming increasingly weak, and miners must look for itLooking back at SpaceX's assessment of Rocket Lab in mid-June before its IPO, the overall judgment was basically accurate. This Q2 revenue hit a record $234 million (up 62% year-over-year), roughly meeting and slightly exceeding expectations; however, the net loss was slightly wider than the market consensus. The real pressure points remain in the Q3 profit guidance (adjusted EBITDA continues to be negative, gross margin dragged down by product mix) and the Neutron rocket's maiden flight window narrowing further, with a risk of delay until 2027.
This is also a common challenge in the commercial space sector: even the industry leader SPCX is still operating at a loss. The complex R&D and validation cycles are inherently uncertain, and launch schedules are difficult to fully meet as originally planned.
These factors inevitably cause volatility in the sector's stock prices. If it weren't for the short squeeze and sentiment rebound following the recent first batch of $SPCX unlocks, market attention probably wouldn't have shifted to $RKLB for speculation. Overall, for this sector to truly enter a period of broad prosperity, it may require the SPCX unlock process to be more than halfway complete or the next wave of speculation centered on SPCX itself to arise. Personally, if you like U.S. commercial aerospace stocks, rather than focusing on the entire sector, it's better to keep your eyes on $SPCX's price movement and unlock schedule first. Intimidate him to hurriedly watch international trade #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 Confidently going all-in on longs, the paper losses harshly contradict subjective predictions
On a trading sharing platform, two popular bloggers showcased their positions and trading views, but the current situation has severely shattered their initial optimistic forecasts.
The first blogger, nicknamed "Shorting the Soaring Coins," has long focused on the trends of volatile coins.
He observed $BEAT oscillating downward for months, concluded that the downside was exhausted, and believed a strong rebound was imminent.
He directly opened a 10x leveraged long position to catch the bottom and even posted to share his bullish outlook, anticipating a reversal rally.
However, the market did not follow his expectations, and the coin price continued to decline.
Now this position shows a floating loss exceeding 1600 USDT, with a return rate plunging to negative 523%, completely opposite to his predicted rebound.
The other blogger, Jupiter’s Moon Seven, who ranked high on the 30-day profit leaderboard, has an impressive trading record.
He heavily invested in $SNDK, set a clear target, and declared he would never close his position below the 1400 price level.
He used 4x leverage to hold a long position for the long term, with a total position size close to 190,000 USDT, showing strong confidence.
But the current market remains weak, moving further away from his target price, with a floating loss exceeding 12,000 USDT and a loss rate of 27%.
These two bloggers have completely different trading logics—one betting on a short-term rebound, the other holding firm on a long-term target—but both suffered significant paper losses due to subjective market predictions.
High leverage amplifies losses caused by price fluctuations, and being overly confident in one’s judgment while ignoring the ever-changing market trend is a shared problem.
Trading never guarantees a 100% certain trend; subjective predictions cannot replace objective market conditions. Holding large long-term positions without risk control only increases position risk.
Even traders with stable past profits cannot ignore market signals based solely on personal expectations.
If experienced bloggers can get trapped by subjective predictions, how should ordinary traders balance position expectations with risk control limits?$RENDER SHORT
Entry: 1.247 – 1.249
Stop Loss: 1.273
TP: 1.223 - 1.198 - 1.173Don't be fooled by rotation; this is not a broad bull market, it's a zero-sum game of picking up leftovers.
Let me share some practical insights from my own experience, no hype about getting rich quick.
The biggest feature of the current market: there's only so much money in the field, shifting from one place to another. BTC ETF funds flow in and out intermittently, BTC is stuck grinding back and forth between 63400 and 65400, and the whole market is waiting for the CPI data to set the direction.
Many see some altcoins suddenly surge and mistakenly think it's alt season, rushing in only to get trapped. I noticed a detail: many small coins rise with huge volume, but whales are simultaneously transferring coins to exchanges, which is mostly a sign of selling, not a new rally.
I'm not saying altcoins are completely untouchable, but you need to distinguish two types of volume: volume-driven price rises where chips are held well, you can play small positions; volume with long upper shadows, large volume but no new highs, basically the main players have exited, don't catch a falling knife.
Currently, funds clearly cluster around the top coins, $BTC and $ETH have the most stable liquidity. Most small and mid altcoins flare up briefly then die out, with poor sustainability. Coins like $XRP and $TIA, even with good news, move hesitantly, and positive news often leads to sell-offs.
A pitfall I recently fell into: trying not to miss every small move, frequently switching coins and stop losses, ended up losing more. Later I adjusted my approach: without confirmed data, don't heavily bet on direction in advance.
A simple summary of my short-term probability judgment:
If CPI is below expectations, rate cut expectations rise, BTC has a chance to break 65400;
If CPI is above expectations, expect a pullback to 63400 support.
For altcoins, before BTC truly breaks out with volume, most alt rallies are pulses—if you profit, know when to exit, don't hold long-term with a big mindset.
This is my personal review, not investment advice. Are you holding altcoins stubbornly now, or watching the mainstream coins? Let's discuss.📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (August 16)
According to liquidation data, this wave of longs was brutally crushed by the market makers...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $5,161.25 $5,161.25 $0
4 hours $15,000 $11,500 $3,515.92
12 hours $90,700 $53,900 $36,800
24 hours $216,800 $123,400 $93,300
From the $KAITO liquidation data, long liquidations dominate short liquidations in the 1-hour window, with shorts at zero, indicating a blitz attack on longs at the start; the 4-hour window shows continued long dominance but shorts begin to appear at a ratio of about 3.3 times, signaling a full outbreak of long liquidations; at 12 hours, long dominance persists but narrows sharply, with the ratio dropping to 1.46 times, showing a significant short squeeze force; at 24 hours, long liquidations surge to $123,400, ratio about 1.32 times, with long-term short resistance rising sharply—short liquidations jump from zero at 1 hour to $93,300, though longs still dominate, their advantage is extremely narrow. Market makers have completed a rhythm evolution on KAITO: short-term long liquidation, mid-term short squeeze undercurrents, and long-term tug-of-war between longs and shorts—short-term longs are targeted for liquidation, long-term shorts’ resistance is increasing but longs maintain a slight lead, with total liquidations exceeding $210,000, leaving direction uncertain. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 16
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: AI infrastructure is moving from "burning money" to "accounting" stage—the market not only watches who invests more but who profits faster.
🏗️ AI Infrastructure Earnings Relay: Cloud Revenue Accelerates, Cash Flow Tightens
In Q2 earnings season, the four major cloud providers delivered their first "report card" on AI investments. Amazon AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters; Microsoft Azure grew 43% YoY, with annual Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time; Google Cloud revenue hit $24.8 billion, soaring 82% YoY. Combined cloud revenue of the four reached about $116.2 billion, up approximately 43% YoY.
More importantly, order backlog. The four cloud providers’ unfulfilled orders total about $2.33 trillion, up 188% YoY—future revenue visibility is improving.
But the cost is real. Google and Amazon’s free cash flow has turned negative, and the four companies’ capital expenditures soared from $39.6 billion in Q1 2024 to $151.4 billion in Q2 2026. The market is voting with its feet: rewarding companies that can convert computing power into real cloud revenue, punishing narratives of investment without returns.
📊 CPI Released Tonight: The Scale for September Rate Hike Hangs in the Balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, the US July CPI will be released. The market expects overall CPI YoY to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI to drop from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Why is this CPI so critical? After July’s unexpected negative nonfarm payrolls, the probability of a September rate hike once fell, but CME data currently shows a 51.2% chance of a hike. Fed Chair Powell has clearly stated the 2% inflation target "leaves no room for maneuver." JPMorgan warns the CPI report could cause the S&P 500 to fluctuate up to 2% on the day.
💰 Nvidia $500 Billion vs Intel $15 Billion: Diverging Paths
On August 10, two chip giants announced financing plans simultaneously.
Nvidia partnered with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to establish an independent computing power financing platform, aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. Jensen Huang said "technology chips have become an investable asset class for the first time"—essentially turning GPUs from consumables into financeable infrastructure assets.
Intel announced a $15 billion common stock offering, its first public equity raise since going public in 1971. Funds will focus on advanced packaging, specialized chips, and physical AI. After the announcement, Intel’s stock dropped about 4%, with market concerns over equity dilution.
Both paths lead to the same conclusion: competition in AI chips has evolved from a technology race to a capital race.
💎 Summary
Cloud providers prove AI demand is real with 43% revenue growth, but $151.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure reminds the market that the burn rate has never slowed; every basis point in tonight’s CPI could tip the scale for September’s rate hike; and Nvidia and Intel’s $500 billion and $15 billion financing plans announced on the same day mark the official start of the "capital-intensive" new phase of the AI race. When industry logic, macro narratives, and capital strategies converge on the same day, August 12 is destined to become one of the most important milestones in the 2026 AI track. #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 The number of active Bitcoin addresses on-chain has fallen back to the bear market range of 2018–2019.
This "quietness" directly weakens the sustainability of the price rebound. Although Bitcoin has recently risen from its low point, the lack of support from on-chain activity makes the rise seem more like a game of existing funds or short-term sentiment-driven, rather than a systemic inflow of new capital. The market commonly refers to this as "insufficient depth," meaning buy orders are thin, and once faced with selling pressure, the ability to absorb it is fragile, easily triggering sharp pullbacks.
Historical experience shows that a healthy bull market is usually accompanied by a synchronous rise in active addresses, while the current divergence signal warns that the rebound's foundation is not solid. If activity cannot effectively recover later, even if the price breaks through key resistance, it is difficult to say the trend has reversed.These two short positions on SPCX taught me a lesson more costly than a stop loss: the market never trades on "bad news" itself, but on whether the bad news exceeds expectations.
SpaceX's first round of about 912 million shares unlocking was expected to create obvious selling pressure, but the actual sell-off was far less than the market feared. Instead, the stock price rebounded from the low of $104.83 on August 3 to close at $138.74 on August 10, reclaiming the $135 IPO price.
Another round of about 7% restricted shares will be released on August 20, so potential supply still exists.
But what concerns me more now is not "how much is unlocked," but:
Why doesn't the price fall when the bad news is out in the open?
The answer is often that the strength of capital temporarily outweighs the expected selling pressure.
This week, AI infrastructure earnings reports from CoreWeave, Lumentum, and others will be released in succession. The market really wants to verify whether massive AI capital expenditures can continue to convert into orders and profits.
The biggest lesson this time:
Mid-term bad news can indicate direction, but short-term high leverage must wait for price confirmation.
Bad news not causing a drop is itself one of the strongest bullish signals. $SNDK #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ ETH's numbers seem directional, but the sample size reminds us not to overestimate the proportions. In the official snapshot of August 11 at 20:00, OKX Onchain OS recorded 29 mentions of ETH in one hour, including 26 times on X and 3 times in the news; A total of 589 times in twenty-four hours. The latest hourly speed is 1.18 times the 24-hour average, meaning it is about 18% higher than the 24-hour average, which is overall considered "slightly faster." This describes attention rhythm but cannot replace price, transaction, or flow data. In terms of tone, the one-hour trend is slightly bullish by 31%, bearish by 21%, and neutral by about 48%, so currently, the trend is "slightly bullish with a slight advantage." The 24-hour correspondence ratio is 31% bullish and 16% bearish; Whether the short window is deviating from the long window is more meaningful than looking at just one percentage. What I care about most here is actually the denominator: only 29 times. If there are a few more focused discussions, the proportions may be clearly rewritten; Retweets, quotes, and news retellings may all be talking about the same thing. You can write the position as long or bearish as is, but it shouldn't be casually translated as how much capital has established positions in the same direction. Currently, ETH's source structure is "mainly driven by X." If X mentions the increase first and the news is still scarce, it feels more like the community spreading first; If news increases simultaneously, it only means more verifiable materials will be available, and you still need to return to the original announcements from foundations, agreements, regulators, or trading platforms to confirm details. 2现在美国市场最值得关注的，不是单独一份非农，也不是一句“美联储偏鹰还是偏鸽”。 真正的矛盾是： 就业已经明显降温，但通胀还没有彻底解决。 这意味着美联储正同时面对“增长不能继续恶化”和“通胀不能重新失控”两条约束，而不同TradFi资产，对这两条线的敏感度完全不同。 就业弱了，但还没有进入“裁员潮” 7月美国非农就业减少2.3万人，此前5月新增就业从12.9万下修至6.3万，6月从5.7万下修至2万，两个月累计下修 10.3万人。过去12个月，非农平均月增也只剩约3.4万人。 但一个容易被忽略的数据是：失业率反而从4.2%降至 4.1%。 原因并不是就业重新变强，而是劳动力供给也在收缩。7月劳动参与率降至 61.4%，较今年1月已经下降0.7个百分点；单月劳动力人口减少26.4万人。 所以当前就业市场更准确的描述不是“崩盘”，而是： 企业不愿意招人，但暂时也没有大规模裁人。 截至8月1日当周，美国首次申请失业救济人数只有 19.9万，低于去年同期的22.6万；6月JOLTS职位空缺仍有 740万个，招聘530万，裁员和解雇180万，整体变化不大。 这是典型的 Low Hiring、LoAugust 4 Market Review: What exactly is the relationship between BTC's rally last night and the US stock market? Let's first look at the chart. The 1-hour price level has already surged to 64050. This rebound is essentially the result of a combination of improved US stock market sentiment and resonance of funds within the market, not an isolated event.
Directly addressing the linkage logic: Last night, US tech stocks broadly strengthened, with the Nasdaq rising over 2%. Microsoft's earnings beating expectations directly ignited market risk appetite. Bitcoin, as a highly volatile risk asset, naturally moved up alongside US tech stocks. Notice the timing—the BTC rally window coincides exactly with the US stock market opening hours, showing very clear synchronicity in fund behavior.
However, the US stock market is only an emotional catalyst, not the sole driver. Before the US stock market's surge, the market had already undergone a deep correction, bottoming at 62227. The short-term oversold condition combined with short-seller stop losses created an inherent technical rebound demand. The US stock market's strength provided bulls with a timely opportunity to add momentum, ultimately forming a "news + technical" dual resonance that pushed the price to 64050.
Now the key issue arises: at this price level, a top divergence has appeared, which is a clear short-term sell signal. For BTC operations, it is recommended to gradually open short positions between 63700 and 64500, targeting around 62500; for ETH, handle similarly by shorting in batches between 1865 and 1880, targeting around 1830. Risk control should be the top priority, with strict position management.BlackRock Canada has launched the new IBQT fund on the Toronto Stock Exchange. This product is not a pure Bitcoin spot ETF but a stock-crypto hybrid product: 97% of the assets are allocated to global stocks, and the remaining 3% indirectly hold BTC through BlackRock's local Bitcoin ETF IBIT.
BlackRock previously launched the pure Bitcoin IBIT, priced in CAD, which fully tracks the spot price of Bitcoin. The positioning of the two products is clearly differentiated.
From a medium to long-term perspective, this product offers substantial benefits for Bitcoin:
1. The core value is not the incremental funds brought by the small 3% position, but the significant lowering of the threshold for traditional institutions to allocate crypto assets. Pension funds, wealth management institutions, and ordinary investors no longer need to allocate crypto separately; they can gain Bitcoin exposure with one click within a regular stock portfolio, accelerating Bitcoin's transition from a niche crypto asset to a standardized major asset class.
2. The demonstration effect of BlackRock as an industry leader far outweighs the short-term capital inflow. The buying volume from the 3% weighting is limited, but once asset managers like Morgan Stanley and Vanguard follow suit and replicate similar products, the industry will form a gradual allocation trend: starting with a 1% BTC allocation in stock base portfolios, gradually increasing to 3% and 5% allocations.
This type of capital belongs to long-term institutional investors, characterized by low-frequency trading and long holding periods, completely different from short-term speculative crypto funds, and can continuously provide bottom support for BTC.
Risk warning: This is only a market idea sharing, not an operational recommendation, with no malicious guidance, and complies with community conventions. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #贝莱德IBIT换购门槛降至100万美元 别被那根最亮的大阳线骗了，真正的信号藏在资金愿意"赖着不走"的地方。 你有没有发现，最近涨幅榜和资金流入榜，常常是两张完全不同的脸？ 价格可以在几分钟内制造尖叫，但持续的流动性很难伪装。所以我最近看盘，盯的不是大盘那抹绿色，而是钱到底在哪些赛道里过夜。 BTC、ETH、BNB、XRP 还是那几根定海神针，但水面之下的资金，正在悄悄重新分座位。 第一梯队，Layer 1 的轮动明显抱团：AVAX、NEAR、TIA、SUI、APT、DOT 这些名字反复出现在强势列表里。而 SEI、HBAR、IOTA 这些，参与感就弱了不少，像是在派对外围端着饮料不好意思加入聊天。 RWA 和 DeFi 这条线，位置站得比大多数人想象中稳。ONDO、PENDLE、MKR、AAVE、UNI 这些，不一定是涨最猛的，但筹码结构很沉，说明有资金在认真建仓，而不是进来打个卡就走。 AI 板块已经不再是"闭眼买"的普涨行情了。TAO、RNDR、FET 这些头部还在讲故事，但后面那一串已经开始各走各的路。这个赛道正在从"叙事驱动"转向"业绩筛选"，滥竽充数的会越来越难混。 另外有个细节值得留意：BICO 在突破后被当成#财报观察员：AI Infrastructure Earnings Reports Take the Stage
This week, AI infrastructure earnings reports are released in concentration. Compared to optical modules and computing power targets, I am focusing on SPCX.
$SPCX Unlock Schedule & Scale
✅ August 6 (completed): Unlock about 7% of total shares, target not met, 10% incentive shares not unlocked
✅ August 20: Release 7% internal shares
✅ September-October: Rolling batch releases, each batch releasing 7%
✅ Early December: Ordinary internal shares unlock, totaling 40% of shares in circulation
⚠️ Musk’s 42% stake locked until June 2027, no short-term selling pressure
The first unlock did not crash the stock; the price returned to the IPO price, which was only an emotional pulse, not a trend reversal.
Starlink has solid cash flow, and AI computing power has great potential, but the valuation has already priced in long-term expectations.
My judgment: short-term bearish, long-term bullish
Short-term: Multiple unlocks from August to October, expanded circulating shares combined with high valuation, high risk of pullback, avoid chasing rebounds in the short term, focus on short positions.
Long-term: If Starlink’s cash flow and AI orders can be realized, and the unlocking cycle is endured, there will be long-term investment opportunities.
Practical operation:
Short-term: closely watch the capital flow on August 20 unlock for short position trading;
Long-term: wait for full digestion of unlock + AI performance guidance implementation.
This week’s AI infrastructure earnings sentiment will also disturb the valuation of the computing power sector.
Interaction: Will this round of unlock pullback create a quality long-term buying opportunity? There has been a quite interesting phenomenon recently: gold and silver have surged wildly, but $BTC still remains noticeably weak.
If $BTC really is the "digital gold" everyone talks about, logically, with the dollar weakening, interest rate expectations dropping, and the market re-trading monetary easing, it should rise alongside gold. But the reality is quite the opposite; funds are clearly more willing to buy gold now.
The biggest advantage for gold this round is that it has very stable buyers behind it who don’t focus much on short-term prices. Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves over the past few years, especially as geopolitical tensions grow more complex and dollar assets become weaponized. Many countries naturally develop a demand: foreign exchange reserves cannot be entirely concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, and gold is the most mature alternative. Coupled with the recent weakening of U.S. employment, the market is re-trading a more accommodative monetary environment, and interest rates and the dollar are making way for gold. So gold actually benefits simultaneously from central bank allocations, concerns over dollar credit, geopolitical factors, and expectations of rate cuts.
Silver is even simpler. In some ways, it’s a high Beta version of gold. Once gold forms a trend, funds naturally look for assets with greater elasticity within precious metals, and the silver market itself is much smaller than gold’s, with supply being tight for a long time. So when funds truly pour in, silver’s gains are bound to be more exaggerated than gold’s. Many people like to explain this round of silver’s rise entirely by industrial demand driven by AI, photovoltaics, and power equipment, but I think this explanation is somewhat overdone. Industrial demand is certainly important, but what really pushes the price up in the short term is the capital diffusion across the entire precious metals sector after gold breaks out. You can understand this as the relationship between BTC and ETH.
Looking back at BTC, it’s quite interesting. It’s not that there are no positives; ETFs have inflows, and the macro environment theoretically isn’t bad, but the price just can’t be pushed up. So I increasingly feel that what BTC really lacks now may not be a "story," nor even "positive news," but rather a sufficiently large, stable, and long-term marginal buyer who can continuously buy in. Behind gold stand global central banks, sovereign wealth funds, pensions, and the entire traditional asset allocation system, whereas so far, the largest incremental funds for BTC still mainly come from ETFs, crypto funds, and investors with higher risk tolerance.
Some sovereign funds, pensions, and traditional institutions have started allocating to BTC, but the overall scale is still very small, more like testing the waters: buying a little first, establishing exposure, and seeing if this asset can truly enter the long-term asset allocation framework in the future.
This is completely different from gold’s scale. Many central banks buy gold not for trading or because they think it will rise 20% next month, but directly treat it as foreign exchange reserves and strategic assets, continuously allocating for years or even decades. BTC is still far from this stage.
So the next big incremental phase for BTC depends on when these institutions move from tentative allocations of 0.1% or 0.5% to regular allocations of 1%, 2%, or even higher. If this process really happens, the amount of capital will undergo a qualitative change.
Of course, it’s possible that gold and silver lead, and BTC lags behind by a bit, so continuous attention is warranted.(1) SanDisk (SNDK) Current Market: On August 11, before and during the U.S. stock market opened, SanDisk continued its rebound momentum. As of 10:05 a.m. Eastern Time, SanDisk was trading at $1,254.11, up 1.31%. The intraday high reached $1,287.04. On the previous trading day (August 10), SanDisk closed at $1,237.92, up 2.12%, with a turnover of $13.443 billion. SanDisk's year-to-date gains remain close to 411%. Technical Perspective: SanDisk has sharply retreated from its high of $2,373, but the overall downward structure remains intact, with prices still trading below the middle Bollinger band. This is a release of recovery momentum after overselling, but there is heavy resistance in the Bollinger middle band range of $1,292-1,350, limiting the room for rebound. After a short-term rebound at the 4-hour level, the Bollinger Trail began to close, prices approached the upper resistance level, and upward momentum gradually waned. Short-term support at $1,227 is the dividing line between rebound strength and weakness. Fundamentals: SanDisk's Q4 FY2026 financial report shows revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, Non-GAAP earnings per share of $39.25, and a quarterly gross margin of 84.6%. However, the company's revenue guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 fell short of some market expectations, triggering a sell-off of "beautiful past, slightly weaker future." Japanese media reported that some analysts have set SanDisk's price target at $1,600. Sector Background: On Monday, internal differentiation in the storage sector was evident—SanDisk rose 2.12% against the trend, while the US dollarThe core background of AMD's recent trend is the Q2 earnings report released on August 4. Although Q2 results exceeded expectations across the board (revenue of $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year; data center revenue of $6.7 billion, up 107% year-over-year), the Q3 guidance (about $13 billion) failed to meet some aggressive investors' expectations of $13.5-14 billion, causing the stock price to surge to $518.58 on the earnings day but then plunge nearly 9% in after-hours trading.
Since then, AMD's stock price has continued to face pressure and decline. As of the close on August 10, the stock price had fallen to $469.56, a cumulative retracement of about 9.4% from the earnings day high.
Analysis of the decline reasons
Valuation pressure: AMD's current price-to-earnings ratio is as high as 120 times (TTM), with a forward P/E of about 48 times. The market has very high growth expectations for its AI chip business, and any guidance falling short of the most optimistic expectations easily triggers profit-taking.
Gross margin pressure: Q2 non-GAAP gross margin was 56%, below historical levels, and operating expenses increased about 40% year-over-year, reflecting that monetization of AI infrastructure is still in the early stages.
Technical breakdown: The stock price has fallen below the previous symmetrical triangle lower support area (around $469-475), RSI is in a neutral to weak zone, and the short-term technical pattern is bearish.
Key points to watch going forward
Critical support level: Around $469 is the current important support; if it breaks down effectively, the downside targets could be $445 or even $424.
Rebound resistance level: Resistance is concentrated in the $496-503 range (near the 50-day and 100-day EMAs); if the price can reclaim this area, short-term sentiment may improve.
Fundamental catalysts: The shipment rhythm of the Helios rack system starting in Q4, progress in AI collaborations with Anthropic and Microsoft, and whether the data center business can achieve over 80% growth in the second half of the year will be key factors determining AMD's medium-term trend.Gold rose more than 6% in a week, crude oil once surged 5% in a single day, yet BTC remains stuck around $64,000 — this is not a "no signal" situation, but the market is waiting for the final pricing.
In July, U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, far below the expected +80,000; gold has reached a high of $4435, rising more than 6% over the past week. The Middle East situation has pushed Brent close to $90.
Meanwhile, from August 3 to 7, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling about $865 million, but BTC currently remains around $63,700.
This is the key:
There are macro catalysts and institutional buying, yet the price does not rise, indicating that the selling pressure above has not been truly absorbed.
Therefore, I would not interpret the sideways movement as "about to take off."
After tomorrow night’s CPI, if ETFs continue to see inflows, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields decline, and BTC rallies with volume to reclaim $65,000–$66,000, that will be a higher-quality trend confirmation.
What’s truly worth waiting for is not certainty, but the price finally starting to respond to the positive factors. $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh says directly, this matter is even more worth discussing than Bitcoin rallying to 70,000. AI companies are competing for computing power, not by renting AWS, but by buying electricity from miners. When Bitcoin mining machines are plugged in, they are no longer just mining coins.
First, let's see what happened.
Anthropic signed a 20-year long contract with Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms to buy 191 megawatts of computing power from Riot's Rockdale, Texas facility. The base contract is $9.1 billion, and if two 5-year extension options are exercised, the total can reach $16.1 billion.
After the news broke, Riot's stock surged 25% after hours. The market clearly no longer views it as a mining stock but prices it as an AI computing infrastructure stock.
This calculation is actually straightforward.
What does 191 megawatts mean? It's enough to power 143,000 households simultaneously. Riot was originally one of the world's largest mining companies, and now it has converted more than half of its mining farm into an AI data center. In recent months, Anthropic has signed three major deals: Volta Infra $10 billion, xAI nearly $45 billion, and Riot $9.1 billion, spending over $60 billion in three months to lock in computing power. Computing power is the oil of AI; whoever locks in more controls the position.
This has two layers of impact on Bitcoin.
In the short term, miners transforming to sell computing power means fewer machines mining, so selling pressure theoretically eases. But don’t expect an overnight change; Riot’s 20-year contract means gradual transformation, not immediate shutdown. The real significance is the signal—miners are voting with their feet, selling electricity and facilities to AI companies. This trend is much bigger than the contract itself. Keel Infra has already announced it is ending US mining operations and fully shifting to AI data centers.
In the long term, miners becoming computing power landlords is a paradigm shift for the entire industry.
The most valuable asset miners hold has never been the coins, but the electricity and facilities. When AI companies are willing to pay 20 years of long-term rent for these, miners’ valuation logic shifts from "speculative crypto cyclical stocks" to "computing infrastructure REITs." This AI infrastructure wave is turning mining farms that were nearly eliminated by halving into sought-after assets again.
The story of miners transitioning to AI will be slower than Bitcoin’s rebound but with a more solid foundation.
So this is good news for Bitcoin. Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won’t go astray! $BTC $ETH $BEAT #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 $ACT /USDT
Volatility has returned, and emotional selling is dominating short-term price action. History shows that strong recoveries often begin when sentiment becomes overwhelmingly bearish.
$ACT is searching for support after today's decline. If buyers step in with conviction, the current range could become an attractive recovery zone.
EP: 0.0100–0.0103
TP: 0.0110 | 0.0120 | 0.0130
SL: 0.0095⛏️Riot sells computing power to AI, and BTC actually benefits?
Mining companies have a new revenue stream, so the pressure to sell coins is indeed reduced.
Riot signed a 20-year AI computing power contract with Anthropic, with initial revenue of $9.1 billion and up to $16.1 billion. Once the news broke, Riot's pre-market price surged over 20%.
What does this mean for BTC?
Miners are no longer in a hurry to sell coins
Previously, miners could only make money by mining BTC and selling it; electricity and maintenance costs had to be paid in cash, so they had to sell regularly. Now Riot rents 191 megawatts of computing power to AI companies, creating a stable cash flow—miners can hold onto their coins waiting for higher prices, naturally reducing selling pressure, which is a potential positive for BTC price.
The pricing logic of mining companies has changed
Previously, mining companies were "BTC cyclical stocks"—when BTC rose, they rose; when BTC fell, they suffered. Now Riot has proven it can be an "AI infrastructure stock," with diversified income sources, leading to a reassessment of valuation logic.
But don't get too excited too soon
This income will only be fully realized by 2028, so the short-term impact on BTC spot price is limited, and Riot is just a case study; whether other mining companies can follow suit is unknown.
In short: long-term positive (miners won’t be forced to sell coins), but don’t expect this needle to move the BTC market in the short term.
#比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 $CRCL broke through previous highs intraday, with the OCC trust license approval and JCB cross-border payment cooperation triggering a market revaluation of its infrastructure attributes. This marks that capital is attempting to shift the valuation logic from purely reserve interest income to a secondary reassessment of a compliant settlement network. If USDC circulation stops declining and rebounds, and the Arc platform generates real fees, bulls will push premiums higher; if circulation remains low, the market may stay range-bound. If non-reserve income growth falls short of expectations, there will be performance realization pressure after the rally, with the next focus on observing the recovery pace of USDC's quarterly circulation.
#霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温 #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？Tomorrow night’s CPI, the real determinant is not BTC’s rise or fall, but whether the market will reprice the "September rate hike".
The US July CPI will be released on August 12 at 20:30. The latest rate market has pushed the probability of a September rate hike back to about 52%; after July’s nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, this probability briefly fell below 50%.
The market is most sensitive to the **core CPI month-on-month around 0.2%** level.
If ≤0.2%: inflation continues to cool, US Treasury yields and the dollar may fall back, and risk assets could see valuation recovery;
If significantly >0.2%: reflation trade returns, rate hike expectations heat up, and high Beta assets will be the first to come under pressure.
BTC is currently about $63,900, ETH about $1,625.
So after the data is out, I’m focusing on three confirmations:
Whether the dollar falls, whether US Treasury yields fall, and whether BTC can volume-wise reclaim 65,000.
CPI gives direction, price reaction gives the answer. $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $XAU Gold has finally emerged from its two-month range. Before the non-farm payroll period, it hovered between 3900 and 4100 for nearly sixty days, exhausting both bulls and bears to the point of exhaustion. Yesterday's data showed employment down by 23,000, shattering rate hike expectations. After a bullish candlestick broke through 4100, it couldn't stop. Today, it surged to a high of 4421, with nearly 8% gains from the breakout point. This push is simply a loosening of interest rate expectations. With both ADP and nonfarm payrolls weak, the market now pricing in no rate hikes in September at 55%. The dollar index is unstable, US Treasury yields have turned downward, and gold, as a counterpart, has naturally been forcibly pushed up by capital. The long-term logic still holds: geopolitical risks have not subsided, and the Fed's shift is only a matter of time; there is no doubt about the direction. But I can't bring myself to take this position right now. It surged from 4100 to 4400 in one go, without even a proper breath. The RSI touched above 73, a typical short-term overbought pattern. If you chase in now, there's no support below to reference, and the upside space is all based on imagination, with the profit-loss ratio completely unbalanced. I believe the area around 4400 is the short-term top area, and a pullback is very likely. The first target is 4170. If that position can hold steadily, digesting the overbought indicator and revalidating the effectiveness of this breakout, I will regain my position. During this pullback, $SNDK SanDisk's grid orders never stopped, with daily arbitrage trades consistently above 500. If gold really gives a chance at 4170, I will adjust part of my position over there. It's not that I don't believe in gold, but no matter how good it is, it has to be thereMarket Analysis｜BTC/ETH Stuck in a Range Tug-of-War, CPI Data to Break Short-Term Deadlock
📌Core Market Overview: BTC is currently oscillating steadily between 63000-65500, characterized by slow rises and bearish declines, repeated false breakouts and fake breakdowns, continuously testing traders' patience. Without an effective breakout from this range, a clear one-sided trend is unlikely.
1. Core Market Signals
1. Employment data is positive but price action is stagnant: Recent ADP and non-farm payroll data both show improvement, providing short-term bullish drivers, yet BTC has failed to leverage this for a rally, indicating heavy selling pressure above.
2. Capital diversion suppresses bullish momentum: Funds continue to be diverted to US stocks and gold, with insufficient incremental capital; major players show weak willingness to go long, maintaining a consolidation and shakeout pattern.
3. Macro expectations under pressure: Stronger employment data leads the market to lower expectations for rate cuts this year, cooling liquidity easing expectations and suppressing valuations of crypto risk assets in the long term; meanwhile, inflation resilience remains, and any Fed policy shift could trigger market changes.
2. Short-Term Key Catalyst: CPI Data
Tomorrow's US CPI release is the core catalyst for this range-bound market; only the data release can potentially break the 63000-65500 oscillation range.
- Data below expectations: Rate cut expectations recover, bullish for BTC and ETH, with a chance to break above the range;
- Data meets expectations: No new market repricing, price action continues to tug back and forth within the range;
- Data above expectations: Inflation rebounds, rate hike expectations rise, liquidity tightening expectations suppress the market, testing support at the lower boundary of the range.
3. Practical Observations and Risk Warnings
1. Trading principle: Avoid heavy positions betting on CPI data in advance; in a ranging market, prioritize waiting for a valid breakout before following the trend to avoid losses from false breakouts.
2. Key observation levels: Upper boundary of the range at 65500, lower boundary at 63000; only a firm hold above or break below confirms short-term direction. August 11 Crypto Evening Report
Tonight, what I think is most worth watching is actually that $BTC and the US stock market are somewhat out of sync again.
BTC has already fallen below 64,000 today, once reaching around 63,900, and ETH has also dropped back below 1,900. The market is clearly weaker than yesterday, with macro uncertainty and leveraged position adjustments weighing on crypto.
But the US stock market opened stronger tonight. The S&P 500 opened up about 0.19%, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.25%, mainly because there are reports that the US and Iran might be close to some kind of arrangement.
This raises a very practical question.
The US stock market is rebounding, but BTC is still below 64,000. If the Nasdaq continues to rise tonight and BTC can’t reclaim even the 64,000–64,200 range, I will treat it as short-term weakness. It’s already very difficult for BTC to be lifted solely by traditional market gains.
Oil prices haven’t fully eased either.
Brent crude remains near $88 today, up about 5% over the past two days, and has rebounded nearly 25% since the July low. The longer oil prices stay at this level, the harder it is for the market to shake off inflation concerns.
Tomorrow night we also have the July CPI.
After the weak non-farm payrolls, the market has lowered expectations for a September rate hike, but if CPI rises again, those expectations could be revised back at any time. Gold is also holding near a two-month high today, showing the market is clearly still waiting for this data.
So tonight I will watch two levels.
If BTC reclaims 64,200, then look for opportunities near 64,500.
If it can’t reclaim 64,000 and then breaks today’s low, I will reduce buying the rebound and wait for support to reappear around 63,600–63,800.
The biggest signal today is actually very simple.
The US stock market has provided a rebound environment; can BTC keep up?
If it still can’t keep up, there’s no need to rush into longs before tomorrow’s CPI.$SNDK #财报观察员：AI infrastructure earnings reports take the stage
The long-term storage demand logic for AI remains unrefuted, with leading companies locking in long-term orders; a 10 billion buyback plan supports the stock price. After continuous declines, the target shows conditions for a technical oversold rebound, and sector sentiment warming will drive short-term recovery
Bearish logic
Negative pressure is difficult to digest in the short term: this earnings report performed decently, but next quarter's guidance fell short of expectations, with multiple investment banks simultaneously lowering target prices; the core driver of this rally—storage price hike expectations—has loosened. A large amount of previously accumulated profits are being cashed out continuously, and the rebound can be seen as a short opportunity for bears $XRP Macro and Policy Overview: The Fatal Delay of the CLARITY Act
1. Macro Policy Panorama 🏛️
The biggest macro variable currently facing XRP is not CPI or the Federal Reserve, but the fate of the U.S. Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. The bill was originally expected to be voted on before the August recess, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune has postponed the procedural vote to September 15.
2. Support and Resistance Levels — Policy Scenario Simulation 🎲
Bill Passage Scenario (Bullish): If the CLARITY Act passes in September, XRP will officially be classified as a digital commodity. Institutional funds may flow back massively, and XRP is expected to break through the $1.10-$1.15 resistance.
Bill Stalemate Scenario (Bearish): Analysts estimate the probability of the bill passing in 2026 has dropped below 43% since late July. Polymarket traders price the chance of passage this year at only 14%. XRP could fall below $1, sliding toward $0.94-$0.86.
SEC Alternative: The SEC plans to propose a new token issuance regulatory framework, taking the lead in regulation if CLARITY stalls.
3. On-Chain Whale Movements — Policy Response 🏦
Institutional Side: U.S. spot $XRP ETF inflows plummeted from $131.9 million in May to $27.29 million in July. However, Wolverine Asset Management is still building new positions in the Bitwise XRP ETF.
Ripple Side: Ripple obtained the Luxembourg MiCA license, and its European expansion is unaffected by the U.S. policy deadlock. Although the UK Treasury’s digital strategy does not specifically mention XRP, Ripple is an important member of the 54-company working group.
4. Bullish Factors ✅
1. Ripple received full EU MiCA authorization
2. SEC plans to introduce a new token issuance regulatory framework
3. Institutions like Wolverine continue building XRP ETF positions
4. RWA scale on XRPL approaches $4 billion
5. Bearish Factors ❌
1. CLARITY Act delayed until September 15
2. Probability of bill passage this year only 14-17%
3. XRP’s weekly performance ranks at the bottom among the top ten cryptocurrencies
4. XRP ETF inflows have plummeted by 93%
6. On-Chain Analyst Conclusion 🧠
$XRP is enduring a "policy vacuum" ordeal. The delay of the CLARITY Act has deprived the market of its most important catalyst, with XRP ETF funds dropping sharply from $130 million in May to less than $30 million in July. However, Ripple’s MiCA license approval in Europe and the SEC’s potential new rules offer an alternative path. Before September 15, XRP will repeatedly tug near the $1 mark—each rebound constrained by policy uncertainty, each decline quietly absorbed by whales. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 $180 million poured into the crypto battle of the US midterm elections
If the crypto industry was once seen by politicians as a fringe group unworthy of the stage, in the 2026 US midterm elections, this industry has turned itself into an unstoppable behind-the-scenes super power with real money.
According to the latest disclosed campaign finance data, crypto companies and industry associations have collectively injected nearly $190 million into federal elections.
This massive political donation amount has allowed crypto capital to directly surpass all traditional giants, becoming the largest corporate political fundraising source in the US this year.
In the money-stacked political circles of Washington, the crypto industry has finally learned to buy influence with dollars.
It’s important to note the lobbying strategy adjustment in this midterm election.
Previously, everyone focused only on the presidential candidates, thinking that winning over one person could change the entire industry.
After many setbacks, industry leaders have finally gotten smart.
This $190 million has been almost entirely directed toward specific congressional seat battles.
Their logic is very pragmatic: who the president is doesn’t matter; what matters is having enough members in Congress who can help pass digital asset clarity laws like the Clarity Act.
To achieve this goal, super PACs like Fairshake have become the sharpest spearheads.
These super PACs play political games much more ruthlessly than many traditional industries.
They use this huge funding to bombard major districts with ads and even spend big to expose damaging information about politicians with tough crypto regulations, directly knocking them out.
At the same time, candidates who support crypto innovation receive the most generous financial backing.
This heavy spending logic of "support me and prosper, oppose me and perish" has caused many bipartisan politicians to soften their stance on crypto legislation almost instantly.
Personally, I think this is a life-or-death counterattack by the crypto industry facing an existential regulatory crisis.
Instead of praying every day for regulators’ mercy, it’s better to directly influence those who draft the laws.
When crypto giants start operating elections like seasoned oil tycoons and military-industrial lobbying groups, it shows the industry has completely left behind the idealistic geek phase and actively integrated into the Western representative political game.
So, although this $190 million reeks of money’s stench, for the crypto industry undergoing painful compliance transformation, it is an extremely efficient protection fee.
If enough insiders are placed in both houses through this election, future regulatory bills will likely be written in ways favorable to the industry.
Behind the political wall where money equals votes, crypto capital has proven with real money that problems solvable by money ultimately aren’t problems.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $XRP 1.23 Billion Token Accumulation Signals a Split
1. On-Chain Token Distribution Overview 🗺️
Santiment on-chain data shows a significant divergence in the behavior of XRP whales. Holders of different scales are making completely opposite decisions—some are aggressively accumulating, while others are quietly retreating.
2. Support and Resistance Levels—On-Chain Perspective 🔬
On-chain support:
$1.000-$1.010 — The main price range where whales recently accumulated 380 million XRP.
$0.94-$0.95 — The next target level analysts point to if $1 breaks down.
$0.75 — XRP’s on-chain realized price; CryptoQuant considers this the late bear market zone.
On-chain resistance:
$1.06-$1.07 — CoinGlass data shows this area gathers significant liquidation liquidity.
$1.12-$1.18 — The main resistance band since June.
3. On-Chain Whale Movements—Divergent Giants 🐟
Accumulating group (10 million to 100 million tokens): Holdings rose from 10.97 billion at the start of the year to 12.2 billion, a net increase of 1.23 billion tokens. Number of addresses increased from 301 to 313.
Reducing group (100 million to 1 billion tokens): Holdings dropped from 8.43 billion to 8.13 billion, a net reduction of about 300 million tokens this year.
Shark group (100,000 to 1 million tokens): Holdings decreased slightly from 6.43 billion to 6.37 billion.
4. Bullish Factors ✅
1. Mid-sized whales accumulated 1.23 billion $XRP this year
2. Recently added 380 million tokens near $1
3. XRP has closed above $1 for 632 consecutive days
4. CryptoQuant notes average XRP order size remains within whale range
5. Bearish Factors ❌
1. Mega whales reduced holdings by 300 million tokens this year
2. Whale address count still below the October 2025 peak of 351
3. XRP has declined 43% year-to-date
4. Small holders continue to exit
6. On-Chain Analyst Conclusion 🧠
$XRP’s on-chain token structure shows a "split" rather than "unified" pattern. Whales holding 10 million to 100 million tokens are aggressively accumulating, while mega whales holding over 100 million tokens are quietly distributing. This divergence means the market has not reached consensus—some see a value bottom, others see ongoing downside risk. The $1 price point is undergoing a brutal test of "who is buying and who is selling." #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 $MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX
Storage opens tonight: most stocks turn green, but it cannot yet be defined as a reversal
After the U.S. stock market opened tonight, the storage sector did not continue to collectively plunge but showed a clear differentiated recovery.
✔ SK Hynix ADR rose about 2.9%
✔ SanDisk rose about 1.2%
✔ Western Digital and Seagate both rose about 0.8%
✔ Micron fell about 0.8%
✔ Nvidia rose about 0.9%
On the surface, most stocks turned green, but the sector is not consistent internally.
SanDisk received a buy rating with a target price of $1600, combined with last week's continuous sharp decline, driving an oversold rebound in NAND and HDD directions; SK Hynix ADR performed the strongest, indicating that the HBM and undervaluation logic still have capital support.
But the real focus remains on Micron.
Micron once surged to 877.5 after the open, then quickly fell back to around 845, and has not yet stood back above the previous closing price. This indicates that capital is willing to bottom-fish flash memory and SK Hynix but is still cashing out high-position chips in Micron.
✔ Key prices tonight
Micron: 845 support, 870–878 resistance
SanDisk: 1230 support, 1285 resistance
Western Digital: 432 support, 448–450 resistance
SK Hynix ADR: 135–136 support, 140–141 resistance
For the storage sector to upgrade from "oversold recovery" to "trend reversal," Micron first needs to firmly stand above 870–878, while SanDisk and SK Hynix ADR break through their opening highs.
For SK Hynix contracts, tonight's ADR rise will bring short-term rebound pressure, so I will not chase shorts near 1000.
If the rebound is blocked again at 1015–1030, consider adding positions; 1045–1055 remains a more ideal strong resistance zone. On the downside, only breaking below 980–970 will reopen 950; if 950 continues to fail, the final target looks at 930.
✔ Trading iron rule
Never bet on the first candlestick of the open, because the win rate could be zero.
Tonight's open has again proven: prices can first surge, then plunge sharply, and then continue to rebound. Let the first round of long-short clearing end, then decide based on resistance and support.
My judgment remains unchanged: tonight is an oversold recovery, not a trend reversal. The rebound only provides position, it does not mean the overall direction has changed. Tomorrow night's CPI blind box opening: $BTC will it aim for 65,000 yuan or keep getting smashed?
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
Last week, the nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the market was just beginning to bet on no rate hikes in September; but June's CPI year-on-year was still 3.5%, so inflation hasn't passed.
Core CPI month-on-month was around 0.2%, and rate hike expectations may continue to cool; If it rises to 0.3% or even higher, as soon as the US dollar and Treasury yields rise, the crypto world will have to take another hit.
More worth watching than the data is BTC: the positive news couldn't break through 65,000, indicating early overdrawing; the data was hot, yet it managed to hold 63,800, showing true resistance to declines.#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges 📊 The Memory Market May Be Entering a New Phase
Reports suggest Apple is testing Changxin Memory (CXMT) DRAM chips for potential use in future iPhone and MacBook models.
A few years ago, this headline might have gone unnoticed. Today, it signals that major tech companies are actively exploring alternative memory suppliers, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape.
Meanwhile, memory stocks are sending mixed signals.
📈 Strong earnings...
📉 Weak price reactions.
Recent examples:
• $SNDK delivered impressive growth, strong margins, and approved a $14B buyback—yet the stock still declined after earnings.
• Western Digital reported solid results but also sold off.
• SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have experienced significant pullbacks despite long-term demand remaining strong.
The market appears to be looking beyond current earnings and focusing on the next stage of the memory cycle.
For now, investors are asking not how strong the last quarter was—but what comes next.
$SNDK $WDC $MU
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges 🚨 The Next Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Might Not Be Open-Market Buying
A new trend could be emerging: using mergers and acquisitions to grow Bitcoin reserves instead of purchasing BTC directly.
H100 recently added 2,455 BTC without spending cash, but the transaction came with a trade-off—issuing 790.5 million new shares, resulting in roughly 70% shareholder dilution.
That raises an important question:
🤔 Is this an innovative treasury strategy... or is dilution doing most of the heavy lifting behind the headline?
As more companies explore Bitcoin treasury models, investors may need to look beyond the BTC numbers and pay closer attention to how those holdings are actually being financed.
$BTC
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges $RE Three hidden currents, all aimed at cutting retail investors!
Conspiracy 1: 0.40-0.43 is the "crocodile mouth" drawn by the manipulative whales! RE has fallen all the way down from the historical high of 1.10, forming a textbook-level downtrend. The current price is exactly in the original launch zone of 0.3665-0.3939. The whales have placed heavy short orders at 0.474 and heavy long orders at 0.40 — you chase longs, they dump; you cut losses, they accumulate.
Conspiracy 2: Tonight's CPI is the "trump card"! The market is deeply divided on the Fed's September policy — 44.6% of traders bet on a 25 basis point rate hike, 54.2% bet on no change. Cleveland Fed President Harker sent the most hawkish signal this round, clearly stating "several rate hikes may be needed." Although RE's RWA narrative is strong, it is still the junior in front of rate hike expectations. Once rates rise, RWA yield advantages will be compressed; once rates fall, the RWA sector may explode.
Conspiracy 3: RE is a "governance token," not a yield certificate! RE itself does not distribute premiums — yields belong to reUSD/reUSDe holders. RE is only responsible for voting, staking, and arbitration. Retail investors are speculating on the "RWA narrative," while smart money is calculating "how much the governance token is really worth" — the expectation gap is the whales' source of profit. Total supply is 1 billion tokens, current circulation is only 159.6 million (about 16%), and the whales hold five times the chips available on the market! 🚨 The Next AI Battle May Be About Capital, Not Just Chips 💰🤖
Everyone is focused on who will build the fastest AI processors.
But an equally important question is:
Who will finance the massive infrastructure required to deploy them?
Reports suggest Nvidia is working with major financial firms to help mobilize over $500B for AI data centers and GPU infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Intel is pursuing a $15B stock offering to fund its own AI expansion, manufacturing, and capital needs.
Two companies. Two very different strategies.
🟢 Nvidia: Helping customers secure funding for AI infrastructure.
🔵 Intel: Raising capital to finance its own growth.
The market’s reaction highlights a bigger concern.
Investors are no longer asking only how strong AI demand will be—they also want to know who will pay for it and what the cost will be.
The long-term winners may depend not only on technology, but also on execution, funding, customer demand, and capital efficiency.
AI demand is accelerating—but financing that growth could become the industry's next major challenge.
Not financial advice.
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges Wall Street is accelerating its move on-chain, but ETH's performance still lags behind BTC — this is one of the most notable divergences in the current market.
BlackRock's tokenized asset scale continues to expand, and the RWA narrative is steadily advancing, providing ETH with a long-term structural advantage. Traditional financial institutions are increasingly turning on-chain, with BlackRock's tokenized fund scale hitting new highs repeatedly. A large amount of U.S. Treasuries and wealth management assets are being settled and traded through Ethereum L2. It's not just BlackRock; more and more Wall Street asset management firms are experimenting with RWA tokenization, and the Ethereum ecosystem is gradually becoming the underlying infrastructure for this wave of attempts.
But a key contradiction is that institutions are willing to use Ethereum's network but not necessarily willing to hold large amounts of ETH itself. Essentially, they are "renting" the infrastructure rather than building large-scale positions in the underlying asset. This is also one of the important reasons why ETH's recent performance continues to lag behind BTC.
In contrast, BTC does not require a complex ecosystem narrative; institutional allocation logic is more straightforward: digital gold, portfolio diversification, macro risk hedging, and clear tracking through spot ETFs. So the current market capital differentiation is quite clear: during phases of macro uncertainty and increased volatility, capital tends to favor BTC; only in a strong bull market atmosphere does ETH gain more capital attention due to its ecosystem narrative.
RWA is a long-term trend, but it is not necessarily a direct catalyst for ETH's short-term rebound. To change the relative strength pattern between BTC and ETH, the market still needs to see new capital continuously and proactively entering and allocating to ETH.
Infrastructure is being built, institutions are going on-chain, but whether capital will further flow along this chain to ETH itself still requires clearer signals.
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 📊 AI Memory Selloff Is Cooling, But Expectations Have Changed
The memory sector isn’t broken—it’s simply facing a much higher bar.
Recent results from SanDisk and Western Digital showed that solid earnings alone are no longer enough when stocks have already priced in an aggressive AI growth story.
This looks more like a valuation reset than a bearish shift.
AI infrastructure will continue to require storage, NAND, and expanding data-center capacity, but investors now want stronger guidance and sustainable growth—not just AI-related headlines.
The next move will depend on whether buyers view this pullback as a healthy reset or the beginning of a broader rotation within AI hardware.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges Why did $RE drop — On the eve of CPI + market pullback, the dog whales use the opportunity to shake out!
First, the overall market pullback drags it down! BTC dropped from 65000 to 64000, ETH from 1920 to 1878. As an RWA sector token, RE has low correlation with traditional crypto, but when panic spreads on the eve of CPI, it still gets dragged down by the market. Tonight (August 11), the US July CPI data will be released, and market expectations for inflation data will directly affect the Fed's probability of a rate hike in September. On the eve of CPI, funds are reducing risk exposure, and RE naturally gets affected.
Second, the 0.449-0.474 range is a strong resistance zone technically! RE rebounded from the 0.395 low to 0.474, a 20% rebound. The SAR at 0.449 just flipped bearish, and the dog whales used this signal to hammer the price. SAR flipping bearish + market pullback = double pressure.
Third, profit-taking is concentrated! The listing on WhiteBIT on August 8 triggered a 30% surge, pulling from 0.35 to 0.64. Although it has now fallen back to 0.41, the profit-taking from earlier high buyers is still ongoing.