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What major events are worth paying attention to in the next month? October 19: CME will launch $UNI and BCH futures, marking CME's first introduction of DeFi governance token futures. Contracts are divided into standard 10,000 UNI and micro 1,000 UNI, cash-settled and regulated by the CFTC. UNI is currently priced around $7, with whales withdrawing 600,000 tokens from Binance in 24 hours. Futures provide only institutional hedging channels, will not bring spot buying pressure, representing a structural positive but short-term neutral, while also opening short-selling opportunities; potential hard risk is that regulatory approval has no clear deadline. October 20: $ZEC will hold a NU7 upgrade vote, assessing testnet performance to finalize the mainnet activation height on November 5. The upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, allocate 60% of fees to the recycling pool, eliminate v4 transactions, lower block rewards but maintain daily issuance unchanged. The testnet has run without major issues. The event itself is a technical milestone, interpreted as neutral to slightly bullish; delay would be short-term bearish. ZEC is currently priced at 1235, with support at 1175. October 21: $SOL Alpenglow mainnet upgrade will activate at epoch 1064, reducing confirmation latency to about 150 milliseconds and eliminating TowerBFT. Note that post-upgrade, vote removal from blocks will cause a sharp drop in TPS statistics, which is an accounting adjustment rather than a performance failure. This event is mid-term bullish, short-term neutral, with expectations of sell-the-news. SOL is currently priced at 105, with resistance at 125.$BSP vs $MEGA : Strong Gains, Weakening Demand? $BSP is up 8.47%, with longs dominating and shorts underwater. But recent selling is nearly seven times stronger than buying. $MEGA looks more balanced. Longs are mostly profitable, yet selling also exceeds buying. My view: BSP has stronger momentum but faces greater profit-taking risk. MEGA looks less overheated, although buyers haven't taken control. Both look bullish on positioning, but recent capital flows tell a more cautious story.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Tesla delivered 486,500 vehicles in Q3, exceeding Wall Street consensus by about 5%, and its stock price rose over 5% in response. After two consecutive years of declining sales, the core automotive business has finally shown a sign of stabilization. But delivery volume is just the entry ticket; the real question that will determine whether the valuation logic can hold steady is the repeatedly asked question in the October 21 earnings report: how much profit can be made from selling each car. The value of exceeding delivery expectations: Looking only at year-on-year data, Q3 deliveries actually fell by 2.1%, below last year's 497,000 vehicles. But last year's high base had a special background: the U.S. federal tax credit expired at the end of September 2025, triggering a buying spree. Excluding this factor, a 1.3% sequential growth and two consecutive quarters of inventory digestion indicate that end demand has not collapsed. The real growth comes from Europe. FSD has received regulatory approval in Croatia, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic, with sales in South Korea and Australia up 15% and 21% year-on-year respectively. JPMorgan views these latter two markets as effective references for demand growth after FSD activation. The export buffer from the Shanghai factory is also playing a role, with about 36,000 of the approximately 86,000 vehicles produced in August used for export, accounting for nearly 42%. However, the EU-wide FSD approval vote has been postponed from the original October to December, so short-term uncertainty remains. Continued pressure on profitability:📉CPI and PPI consecutively disappoint｜BTC falls below 80,000, long and short positions liquidated alternately $BTC: Core PPI month-on-month up 1.3%, hitting a new high since March 2022, causing BTC to break through 80,000 directly. Subsequent rebound driven by the International Energy Agency releasing 100 million barrels of oil reserves, 10-year US Treasury yield falling from 5.3% to 5.04%, risk sentiment recovering, BTC surges to 82,600. Market shows a double liquidation of longs and shorts: long positions liquidated for $72 million, while during the rebound short positions were liquidated for $19 million, both sides harvested in the volatile market. Technically, bears dominate, the 80,000 support has failed, and the market enters disorderly oscillation. 84,000 is the watershed for long and short strength; even if the rebound reaches 82,600, the large-scale bearish pattern remains unchanged. $ETH: Spot ETFs continue to bleed, BTC+ETH net outflow totals $390 million in one day. Bitmine is only 6 weeks away from reaching its 5% holding target, after which it will stop increasing holdings. Resistance from trapped positions at 2,450-2,500 is obvious; RSI slightly recovers from 37, still neutral to weak, rebound mainly with a reduction in positions. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ 📊Capital Rift: ETF Outflows, Whales Accumulate Against the Trend ETF single-day net outflow of 3,209 BTC, approximately $258 million. Bitfinex data shows that since late August, large holders have cumulatively increased their holdings by about 60,000 BTC, mainly building positions in the 80,000‑86,000 range, creating a capital divergence pattern where ETFs are withdrawing and whales are accumulating. 80,000 is both a previous low point and the core cost zone for whales. Holding this level means whales are effectively absorbing, providing a foundation for a rebound; if ETF outflows continue causing 80,000 to break, it will open a deeper downside. Macro pressures remain unresolved, with CPI and PPI consecutively exceeding expectations, inflation rising for three months in a row, and rate hike expectations increasing. ETF outflows essentially represent risk-averse capital behavior. Personal operation: Took profit and exited short positions at 81,500 yesterday, currently flat. Around 80,000 is a multi-layered support zone; no rush to open long or short positions at this stage. Watch for support at 80,000 on pullbacks: if volume shrinks and the level holds, lightly try longs with a stop loss at 79,000; if volume expands and breaks down, continue waiting for a lower position. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Trading discipline: Do not chase highs or sell lows; always set stop losses on positions. Note: Analysis is time-sensitive, markets change rapidly. Wishing you successful trading.Tesla $TSLA Q3 earnings report is about to be unveiled, with a focus on profits and AI! Tesla will release its Q3 2026 earnings after the US market closes on October 21. Previously announced deliveries were about 486,500 vehicles, exceeding market expectations but still down year-over-year. Whether the sales rebound can translate into profit growth is the key for this earnings report. The market expects Q3 revenue of about $27.8 billion and adjusted EPS of about $0.44. Beyond automotive gross margin and free cash flow, I am more focused on the commercialization of Robotaxi, FSD expansion, and the latest progress on the Optimus robot. Although the new generation Roadster brings buzz, long-term valuation ultimately depends on performance delivery. Tesla today unveiled the new generation Roadster, but production is planned for 2028, so in the short term it is more of a catalyst for brand and technology. What truly determines long-term valuation is the commercialization progress of Robotaxi, FSD expansion, and the implementation capability of the Optimus robot. My view is that Tesla is no longer just an automaker; AI and autonomous driving are the sources of valuation imagination. However, if automotive profits continue to be pressured and new businesses fail to deliver, the high valuation still faces correction risk. For this earnings report, are you more optimistic about the automotive business recovery or the long-term value brought by AI and Robotaxi? #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 🐳 BTC has recently been shaking the market and causing anxiety, but there's an interesting set of data — the whales haven't fled; in fact, their numbers are growing. On October 16, Santiment reported that the number of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC on-chain has reached 20,338, setting a new all-time high. More importantly, this number has been steadily rising since mid-July, even though BTC prices have fluctuated and market sentiment has been volatile. These well-funded players are still gradually increasing. In simple terms, these people are the players in the crypto space with substantial "assets." When the market rises, they obviously can make money; but what’s truly noteworthy is that they continue to increase even when the market is weak and prices are volatile. It's a bit like a mall business doing poorly — ordinary people might quickly close shop and run, but wealthy owners take advantage of cheap rent to keep leasing stores and stockpiling goods. 🐳 Of course, this data shouldn't be simply interpreted as "whales bought BTC, so BTC is about to rise." The increase in on-chain wallet numbers could also come from fund splitting, address migration, or institutional position adjustments, so it can't be taken as a standalone buy signal. But from a market sentiment perspective, it at least indicates one thing: there is currently no sign of large-scale collective capital fleeing BTC. Especially since the steady growth since mid-July, this combination of "price volatility with an increasing number of whales" is more worth noting than a single large transfer on any given day.In one sentence: Narrative determines where the funds look, liquidity determines how far the funds can go, and consensus determines how long the funds dare to stay. Without any one of these three, the market won't go far. Layer one: Narrative—without a story, funds dare not enter. Crypto assets have no cash flow, no P/E ratio, no dividends. On what basis do you price them? Rely on narrative. Bitcoin is "digital gold," Ethereum is the "world computer," Solana is a "high-performance public chain," RWA is "bringing real-world assets on-chain." These are not technical descriptions, but narratives. They compress a complex code protocol into a sentence you can remember, share, and use to persuade others. How powerful is narrative? The TRUMP token is the most typical case. Within 48 hours after the dinner announcement, trading volume surged 300%, with 220 whales averaging a holding cost as high as $1.78 million, and the price once soared 50%. But by the time the dinner officially started, the price had already fallen back. The price peak appeared during the message diffusion period, not when the event landed. Narrative completes pricing at the "expectation" stage and completes harvesting when the "fact" lands. In 2025, the average rebound duration of altcoins lasted only 20 days, far less than 60 days in 2024. The narrative lifecycle is shortening, and rotation speed is accelerating. From DeFi to NFT, from L2 to Restaking, from AI Agent to RWA, almost every month a new narrative emerges. Layer two: Liquidity—no matter how good the narrative, without money it can't rise.😂 Besides CPI, the September PPI also exploded! Inflation surged 6.3%, can the "soft landing" continue? Brothers, this time inflation really hit the market hard! $BTC September US PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year, far exceeding the market expectation of 5.4%; month-on-month it increased 1.3%, the largest rise since March 2022. $ETH Energy was the biggest driver, commodity prices soared, and gasoline prices surged more than 20% in a single month. Core PPI also exceeded expectations, indicating that this time it's not just an energy price issue, underlying inflationary pressures are also rising. But the most interesting thing is: despite such bad data, the market didn't crash! The S&P 500 and Nasdaq still closed higher, and Bitcoin also rebounded. Why? Because the day before, CPI had already washed out the panic selling, and the market had some expectations of the inflation downside. Instead, funds started shifting from overvalued AI and chip sectors to value stocks and small caps. So there's no need to panic excessively now. High inflation ≠ the market must fall. The real variables ahead are oil prices and geopolitical situations. If oil prices fall, inflationary pressure may gradually ease, and the market's rate cut expectations naturally have room to recover. So my thinking is simple: be cautious in the short term, keep observing in the medium term. What we fear most now is not bad news, but everyone starting to FOMO when seeing a rebound. Let the market digest this wave of inflation shock first, and patiently wait for the real reversal opportunity! #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 Today's market is quite interesting. $BTC is still recovering from the previous drop, many coins are just catching their breath, but NEAR once surged to $5.42, with a 24-hour increase close to 10%. At times like this, the easiest judgment is: the AI narrative is back, and the altcoin rally is coming. I think it's too early to draw that conclusion. This round of $NEAR's rise is not completely without fundamental support. On September 29, the Bitwise NEAR ETF officially launched on NYSE Arca, ticker NRR. Earlier, NEAR Intents had already placed cross-chain trading, unified liquidity, and AI agent payments within the same narrative. Bitwise stated in the ETF release announcement that Intents has processed over $32 billion in cumulative volume; NEAR's official disclosed fee allocation mechanism also began linking product usage with NEAR token demand. These changes mean NEAR is no longer just a "husband chain rebound" story. The ETF provides a traditional capital entry point, Intents attempts to offer real use cases, and AI is responsible for giving the market imagination space. With these three factors combined, it's not surprising that capital is willing to revalue it. But today's surge cannot be entirely attributed to fundamentals. NEAR is currently around $5.20, with an intraday range from $4.54 to $5.42. Nearly 20% high-low volatility in less than a day indicates that capital disagreement is much greater than what a single bullish candle suggests. Meanwhile, BTC also from 8#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 BullishYesterday, when the PPI was released, the first glance was really shocking. The US September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year, not only exceeding expectations but also marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022. Energy was the main driver, with final demand energy prices rising 10.8% in one month. According to the usual script, such data would definitely be unfavorable for BTC. BTC did indeed drop initially, once falling below $80,000. But the strange part came afterward — after breaking below, it did not continue to cascade down; within about two hours, it was pulled back to around $82,000–$82,500. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ 【 BTC volume surged with a long wick, 4-hour bottom divergence confirmed! 84000–85000 becomes the next key level 】 Last night’s article mentioned the increasing likelihood of BTC breaking below 80,000. Indeed, after several probes, BTC finally broke through 80,000, dipping to 79,800 before closing with a long wick. So, does this mean the defense line has been breached and a further collapse is starting? To clarify, when we talk about a breakdown, we usually mean an effective breakdown, which is generally judged by the daily close at major support levels. This kind of wick does not count. It can be understood that many stop-losses or liquidations clustered around 80,000, and the main force broke through here to remove liquidity below. Therefore, BTC has returned to the previous consolidation range, with a daily volume surge and wick close, 4-hour bottom divergence confirmed, and the daily MACD near the zero line support. Both indicators and patterns have improved. 【❤️As shown in Figure 1】 Next, it will cycle again. Keep an eye on the 84000 to 85000 range. If it can’t break through, there will be more fluctuations; if it breaks and holds above, it will continue to head for new highs! 【❤️As shown in Figure 2】 Now you understand why we have been emphasizing that the market will be very complex. This kind of consolidation phase is torturous with no compromise; only after choosing a direction will trading become more comfortable. Continue to watch spot positions with a bias towards holding and less trading; wait for the market to show direction before acting! Trading idea: Near yesterday’s BTC low, repeatedly reminded that it is only suitable for adding positions, not for cutting losses. Hold your spot positions; currently, spot positions remain heavily weighted 【❤️As shown in Figure 3】 $BTC $ETH The macro line is particularly twisted today. When Bitcoin dropped below 82,000, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of over 260 million USD in one week, with money being pulled out from the largest pocket. Logically, the outflow should start from Bitcoin, but the XRP ETF fund went the opposite way, showing a net inflow for the week, becoming one of the few channels that didn't bleed in this round. This is what I want to say: in the same market, the "sell Bitcoin, buy others" switch is often more worth pondering than a full collapse. The funds haven't fled; they're just changing seats. Meanwhile, exchange wallets collected over 80 million XRP in three days — don't rush to see this data as bullish. More inflow to exchanges could mean selling pressure or just custody relocation; we need to watch the direction over the next few days. XRP itself is currently priced a bit over $1.30, up just over 2% in one day, but still negative over seven days, hovering in the middle range of the past week. Some have already called for this wave to reach $1.30. My attitude is old-school: wait until the ETF weekly report shows net inflows for two consecutive weeks before commenting. One day's fund flow is just noise; those who gamble on data never end well. This isn't about whether to get on board or not; the cards haven't all been dealt yet. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $XRP #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The profit and market boost brought by AI dramas are still a long way offNetflix (NFLX) 2026 Q3 Earnings Preview Netflix will release its 2026 Q3 earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 20. Company Official Guidance - Revenue: $12.86 billion (YoY +11.7%) - EPS: $0.82 - Operating Margin: 33.2% Wall Street Estimates - Revenue: $13.0 billion - EPS: $0.84 The company's guidance is generally conservative and below market expectations, leaving room for upside surprises in this earnings report. Key Positive Drivers 1. High growth in advertising business, with full-year 2026 ad revenue expected to nearly double, and high gross margin characteristics continuing to boost overall profits. 2. Price increases implemented across multiple global regions, raising ARPU and offsetting slower subscriber growth. 3. Solid Q2 base: revenue of $12.56 billion, EPS of $0.80, maintaining strong profitability. 4. High-quality summer content launched in Q3, improving user engagement and retention quarter-over-quarter. Risks Intense competition in the streaming industry combined with continued high content amortization costs will suppress margin expansion in the short term. Market Outlook The negative factors for this earnings report have been priced in, making it easier to beat than to disappoint. As long as subscriber numbers and margins hold steady, results are likely to outperform the company's conservative guidance, supporting stock price recovery. Focus on three key metrics: new subscriber additions, advertising business growth, and actual operating margin. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $NFLX $SOL options are not buying insurance against a drop; this is the reading from the options market on the afternoon of October 16. On OKX, the implied volatility for at-the-money SOL options expiring on October 18 is 60.7%, which translates to a daily volatility of about 3.2%. The actual daily volatility over the past 30 days is 3.3%, nearly identical. The options are neither charging extra premium nor discounting prices. The delta at the at-the-money strike is 0.52, evenly split between up and down moves, with no side priced in advance. Looking at strikes on both sides, 100 and 112 are about 5 to 6 points away from the current price. Roughly estimating by delta, the probability of settling below 100 at expiration is about 12%, and above 112 is about 14%. The probability on the downside is 2 points lower than the upside, indicating that a drop is not more feared than a rise. The volatility skew is slightly higher on the downside: the 100 strike has 70.6% implied volatility, while 112 has 66.4%, a 4-point difference. This is a mild skew; there are buyers of downside protection, but not in a crowded way. In times of real panic, the downside skew would widen significantly. Therefore, with SOL around 106, the directional bias is slightly bullish, and there is not much money betting on a big drop in the market. Before the October 18 expiration, if the probability of settling below 100 rises from 12% to above 20%, that would indicate that downside insurance is starting to get expensive. Inflation is rising, but the long end has retreated from this year's highs Let's first talk about the facts that have already happened. The September CPI will be released this Wednesday (October 14): overall year-on-year 3.74%, previous 3.40%; core year-on-year 2.56%, previous 2.45%; month-on-month +0.59% and +0.37%, both are rising. Meanwhile, the long end is retreating. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 5.31% on October 5 (the year's high) to 5.10%, and the 30-year fell from 5.67% to 5.43%. On the short end, the effective federal funds rate remains at 3.88%, and the 2-year is at 4.77%—the policy rate range has barely moved. The key is to look at these two directions together. The short end is decided by the Federal Reserve, the long end by the market—the long end roughly consists of inflation expectations + term premium (extra compensation for lending to the US for a longer time) + real interest rate. Inflation is rising, but the long end is falling, indicating that what is suppressing the long end is not the September inflation itself. What the market is really debating is another matter: when inflation stays above 3%, can rate cuts continue downward? The 2-year still hangs at 4.77%, and the market is not pricing in a "quick drop on the short end"; meanwhile, the 10-year real yield is 2.78%, and the 30-year is 3.18%, so the real rates after subtracting inflation are not cheap. My judgment: this round of long-end decline looks more like a correction of the previous rapid rise, not a turning point in the inflation issue. If inflation continues to strengthen but the long end cannot rise, then the cause should be sought in supply and term premium, rather than focusing on a specific item in the CPI. In terms of trading, the 2.78% real yield is the line suppressing gold and risk assets. The next observation point: the October 27-28 FOMC meeting (statement released at 2:00 AM Beijing time on October 29); then watch how the 10-year behaves around the 5% whole number level.But this wave is not moving alone. Injective has risen nearly 30%, Celestia over 20%, LayerZero and Arbitrum are also in double digits. They are all the ones that were hit hardest earlier and have the best stories to tell. $NEAR $BTC $ETH So for this rebound, I prefer to treat it as an oversold plus sentiment repair rather than a sudden fundamental reversal. The funds are now choosing not based on whose business has improved, but on who has fallen deep enough and whose narrative is sexy enough. NEAR happens to have both: it fell a lot earlier and has always carried the AI public chain label. This kind of market usually has only two outcomes. One is that sentiment really bottoms out and funds start to flow back; the other is that liquidity makes one last struggle, rises, and then continues to grind down. I lean towards the latter, but guessing tops and bottoms is unreliable anyway. The key is whether it spreads afterward: can BTC stabilize first, do mainstream assets like ETH and SOL follow, and does trading volume continue to expand? If only those with the largest early declines rise, it looks more like a catch-up rally, not an altcoin season. If NEAR rises another 10%, I won’t chase directly. Those with positions should reduce in batches near the previous high resistance area; those without positions should wait for a pullback that doesn’t break support before trying small positions. Chasing a rise at this level is not cost-effective in terms of risk-reward. Standing on an oversold rebound is fine, but there is still insufficient evidence for an altcoin season. #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #奈飞增长或放缓，Kalshi has launched a DOGE perpetual contract regulated by the CFTC in the United States, with a leverage cap set at 3.8x, and it qualifies for tax benefits under Section 1256 of the Tax Code. 3.8x. Just consider that number. Offshore exchanges often offer 50x or 100x leverage, but Kalshi directly pins it down to the ground. On the other hand, if an American wanted to trade DOGE contracts before, they could only go to offshore platforms, with no place to turn to if something went wrong. Now someone has paved this path right to their doorstep, and it's laid with regulatory bricks. Even more interestingly, starting October 13, Kalshi shut down its VIP large trade reward program. While launching perpetual contracts, it stopped subsidies for big players. What it wants are ordinary people, not those who treat their positions like bullets. $DOGE is currently at 0.082, up 0.6% today, with a 24-hour low touching 0.07791 before bouncing back. Channels are being paved one by one, and with each new channel, more people get access to DOGE.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Netflix's story is shifting from a "subscription growth machine" to a dual-engine model of "stable subscription + high-growth advertising." Although advertising currently accounts for only a single-digit percentage of total revenue, its doubling growth rate and clear expansion path make it the most certain hedge against market anxiety over subscription growth. However, if the fundamental issue of engagement stagnation cannot be improved, the long-term ceiling for advertising business will also be constrained. Netflix needs to find a precise balance between short-term ad monetization and long-term user experience.$HYPE The market is generally rebounding, but what does it mean that HYPE's gains are relatively small? Spot price rose about 1.41% in 24 hours, ranging from 77.562 to 82.631, positioned at about 69% within this range; during the same period, ETH rose about 3.71%. HYPE's relative returns in this window are not outstanding. For derivative platform popularity to translate into token performance, sustainable revenue and clear value transmission are needed. Market activity benefits trading demand but does not guarantee that platform tokens will outperform. If 82.631 is reclaimed and relative strength improves, a reevaluation can be made; if the overall market continues to strengthen while it lags, capital may be seeking other directions. Losing 77.562 indicates insufficient support in the range and that optimism cannot be maintained by industry hype alone. We talked this morning about why BTC's pullback stopped at 80,000, and the afternoon verification has arrived. During the session, it actually briefly dropped below 80,000 (around a low of 79,800), but it didn't hold there and quickly pulled back to 82,000, now around 82,300. What's even more interesting is that the liquidation structure has changed: last night’s $950 million liquidation was 90% long positions; today’s 24-hour liquidation dropped to about $260 million, with longs and shorts almost evenly split. Among today's $73 million ETH liquidations, shorts dominate — this rebound is a short squeeze, not longs holding firm. Right now, there’s just one line blocking above: the average cost of holdings in the US spot ETF, about $82,300. Before reclaiming this line, ETF capital is unlikely to truly improve. Before the FOMC at the end of October, it will most likely grind between 80,000 and 83,000. Do you think this cost line is a resistance level or a launchpad for institutional accumulation? #BTC #Web3BTC pulled back from 79,775 to 82,000, ETH reclaimed 2,400: This rebound doesn't look like just short covering BTC spot pulled back from 79,775 to 82,091, and ETH also rebounded from 2,324 to 2,442. The price recovered quickly, but don't rush to credit the spot buying entirely. About $940 million worth of positions were liquidated in this drop, 92% of which were longs. Normally, after leverage is flushed out, open interest (OI) should drop significantly; however, the overall market data shows little change in OI after liquidation, with OKX's BTC perpetual OI still around $2.45 billion. This indicates that after old longs were taken out, new positions came in, so this is not a clean deleveraging rebound. If it were just shorts taking profits, OI should continue to decline as prices rise; if spot buying was supporting, spot volume must increase synchronously when BTC breaks 82,643 and ETH breaks 2,468. Neither condition is fully confirmed now, so I lean towards a mixed recovery of "real buying support + leverage re-entry." Therefore, I am not chasing. Wait for BTC to hold above 82,643 and ETH to surpass 2,468, then watch for a pullback; if BTC falls back below 81,800 and ETH below 2,400 while OI remains high, these new longs could become fuel for the next round of sell-off. $BTC $ETH #OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 How severe is this round of pullback in the US stock market? A review of the declines in 14 popular stocks #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Ranked by pullback from largest to smallest: SOXL down 39.48%, AAOI 36.93%, NBIS 30.01%, SNDK 29.48%, INTC 25.46%, BE 24.75%, MU 20.79%, MRVL 20.50%; followed by ORCL, SPCX, TQQQ, VST, NVDA, AVGO. An interesting divergence can be seen: AI leaders are relatively resilient, with NVDA and AVGO pulling back only about 11%; but MRVL, also part of the AI industry chain, dropped over 20%, and optical communication AAOI nearly 37%. The memory sector was also hit hard, with MU and SNDK pulling back 20.79% and 29.48% respectively. After huge gains earlier, the market is re-pricing their future earnings expectations. In my view, although many high-volatility stocks have already deeply pulled back, a larger drop does not equal a bigger rebound; you cannot simply bet on a reversal based on the decline alone. There are two main lines to watch going forward: first, whether orders and earnings guidance in the memory, optical communication, and AI infrastructure sectors can still be revised upward during this earnings season; second, who can lead the rebound by increasing volume and breaking above key moving averages first, and who continues to hit new lows in stages. If earnings expectations remain upward, those stocks that have pulled back 20-30% have a risk-reward ratio worth re-evaluating. The threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin has been debated for many years, but the real difficulty is not in the technology. An old player in the community said something many don't want to hear: even if quantum computing could truly threaten Bitcoin within two years, it's almost impossible for Bitcoin to complete a full network upgrade within that time. The reason is clear. The last SegWit upgrade took the community two whole years of debate, and the result was not a completed upgrade but a fork, creating a new sibling $BCH out of thin air. The later Taproot upgrade, considered smooth, still took 3 years. So the key point is this: the slowest part of Bitcoin is not the code, but consensus. The slowness of upgrades is not something to wait for quantum computers to see; it has played out several times over the past decade. Do you think this is alarmist, or a real hidden risk? $BTCBCH's recent performance has been quite impressive, with volume surging intraday and approaching highs. This established PoW asset has once again attracted capital attention. The logic behind BCH is not complicated: when BTC stabilizes and the market starts to explore catch-up opportunities, BCH, which has high recognizability and a relatively independent trading community, is often easily pulled out. The current rally is mainly driven by capital, and the coordination of volume and price is a positive signal, but volatility may increase after continuous rises. Going forward, it depends on whether BTC can maintain stability and whether BCH's own trading volume can sustain; otherwise, it may easily enter a phase of high-level consolidation. $BCH Bitcoin has rebounded from around 80k and is currently fluctuating near 82k. The overall market recovery is not yet complete, but funds have already started selectively replenishing previously strong assets. Today is not a full altcoin season but a clearly differentiated market. Currently, several directions stand out: $INJ is around 9.1-9.25, with a 24-hour increase of about 25%-28%, making it one of the strongest today. The catalysts are concentrated: the CEO recently met with the White House, SEC, and CFTC to advance tokenization and compliance matters; the fixed gas fee proposal is also progressing; the Canary staking ETF has made progress; meanwhile, income/valuation metrics are attracting market attention. Technically, it has also broken through, combined with altcoin capital rotation, showing considerable elasticity. $ZRO is around 2.25-2.27, with a 21%-25% increase. It is in the cross-chain infrastructure sector, with progress mentioned in Global Dollar Network and others; funds prefer the interoperability track. $TIA is around 0.62-0.66, with a 19%-25% increase. It follows the modular + data availability narrative, with funds returning after earlier adjustments. $NEAR is around 5.2, with a 10%-12% increase. The Bitwise spot ETF (NRR) has launched and attracted inflows; chain abstraction, cross-chain Intents, and AI agents are the main narratives; elasticity remains good after improved institutional accessibility. $ZEC is around 1220-1230, with a 9%-13% increase. It represents the privacy sector, Grayscale Zcash.In a neglected corner, $FIL has been rising continuously, this daily chart, Positive factors: 1/ Token release ended, supply growth rate sharply declined: The 6-year release period set by Protocol Labs and Filecoin Foundation at genesis ended around October 15. 2/ Solstice network upgrade planned for October 19: An increasing share of block rewards will be allocated to services that bring paying customers, and unearned service reward shares will be burned instead of being redistributed. 3/ Integral Spacetime: Newly launched storage Neocloud this week brings in a large number of paying customers at once by acquiring enterprises with massive storage needs and migrating their data to Filecoin. 4/ Fil One: Officially available, providing high-performance, S3-compatible object storage at prices far lower than traditional cloud providers, with no egress fees on paid plans, targeting enterprise IT and AI infrastructure. Could this be a second spring? But seeing the weekly chart really makes me want to laugh On October 16, Yicai reported that the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan in 2026 concluded. This figure easily brings to mind companies receiving orders, factories upgrading equipment, and households receiving subsidies. However, from the state borrowing money to these events actually happening, there is still a process that must be completed. The most important question is: through which steps does this financing become actual income for companies and real subsidies enjoyed by households? After issuing the bonds, which step is completed? The Ministry of Finance's 2026 budget report has long planned to continue issuing 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds. Therefore, the "conclusion" on October 16 means the phased issuance of the annual plan has reached its end; it should not be understood as a sudden additional fiscal expenditure of 1.3 trillion yuan on that day. The final round of issuance arrangements can illustrate the timing difference. The Ministry of Finance notified that on the morning of October 16, it would continue issuing 20-year government bonds worth 20 billion yuan, with the underwriting group's payment deadline on October 19. The bidding issuance and payment themselves have a sequence, and the issuance date cannot be directly taken as the date when funds have already been paid to companies or households. Expanding the transmission process usually involves several steps: the government issues bonds to raise funds, the treasury allocates funds according to the budget, relevant departments and local organizations execute, and then through project payments, equipment procurement support, or consumption subsidy payments, the funds enter the income and expenditure of companies and households. These steps do not all start only after all the bonds for the year are issued. On September 30, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that after the fourth batch of 62.5 billion yuan was allocated, the total 250 billion yuan for consumption in the year... #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The growth narrative of Netflix's advertising business holds, but in the short term, further improvement in profitability faces a trade-off between "growth and margin." The large-scale monetization of advertising revenue is the key variable to unlocking profit space.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Tesla TSLA (Q3): Deliveries exceeded expectations, but earnings/gross margin are unlikely to surpass consensus estimates, as Wall Street's expectations are generally set very high. The probability of slightly beating expectations is low, with a high likelihood of meeting or slightly missing earnings forecasts. 1. Known leading data: Q3 electric vehicle deliveries reached 486,500 units, significantly above the market's prior consensus of 462,000 (+5%). This delivery figure has already materialized as a positive factor. - Highlights: Energy storage installations at 13.7 GWh, maintaining steady growth; inventory reduction and a rebound in European demand; continued growth in FSD subscriptions. - Biggest constraint: Automotive gross margin. Intense industry competition, ongoing price cuts and promotions, raw material and factory operating costs, plus continued large capital investments in AI/Dojo and robotics, are squeezing profits. Many institutions believe deliveries look good, but per-vehicle profits are under pressure. 2. Expectation breakdown: - Revenue: Most likely slightly above expectations (due to higher deliveries) - Adjusted EPS and gross margin: The core items most likely to miss expectations and the focus of market contention#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus The "pipeline" for the GENIUS bill has started to be laid out, small stablecoins rejoice, big stablecoins worry The Federal Reserve on 9/24 released two sets of proposed rules (NPRM): issuers must have 1:1 high-quality reserves (U.S. Treasuries/cash), rehypothecation is prohibited, and capital requirements are set according to business models; bank subsidiaries have a 120-day fast-track approval. The Treasury Department's temporary rule on 9/30 drew a $10 billion red line—issuers with issuance exceeding $10 billion (Tether, Circle) are directly blocked from the "state channel" and must follow the federal framework. The comment deadlines for the Treasury and SEC are 10/19 and 10/20, respectively. Stablecoins will become "bank-level liabilities," allowing small players to enter while giants are absorbed. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Meta's Q3 report will test whether AI spending is being matched by the earnings engine behind it. Q2 revenue rose 28% year on year to $60.8B while capex reached about $31.1B; Q3 guidance of $61B-$64B keeps the growth case intact, but investors still need evidence that advertising can absorb a rising investment burden. #MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook $NFLX will release its earnings report after the market closes on October 20. I bet its data can beat expectations, but the stock price may not necessarily respond positively, and this is also related to the crypto space. The market expects revenue of 12.87 billion, EPS around 0.82, the company guidance is 12.86 billion, operating margin 33.2%. The expectations are very close, so it’s not the kind of situation where a slight beat will cause a big surge. Why do I think it can beat? The core is advertising. The 2026 advertising revenue target is 3 billion, double last year, with over 4,000 advertisers, a year-on-year growth of 70%. This is currently the fastest-growing business. But last quarter, advertising revenue was about 618 million, below expectations. A loud full-year target doesn’t mean every quarter will beat, so quarterly growth is more important than the full-year target. A lesson from the past: Q2 earnings in July had an EPS of 0.80, slightly beating, but revenue was 12.56 billion, slightly lower. Q3 guidance of 12.86 billion was below the expected 13 billion, and the stock dropped more than 8% after hours. The stock price has fallen about 24% this year, with a 52-week low of 65, now just above 70. For the crypto space, Netflix is a Nasdaq heavyweight. If it falls sharply after the earnings report, tech stock sentiment will be hit, the Nasdaq pressured, and BTC and the crypto AI sector usually get shaken out as well. Conversely, if the guidance is strong, tech stocks rebound, and crypto can catch a breather. My judgment: Q3 data will most likely beat, but whether it rises depends on the earnings call guidance for Q4 and next year’s advertising revenue. I will closely watch the Nasdaq and BTC linkage after the earnings report. If the AI sector is unfairly punished, I will consider whether to jump in. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $DOGE is slightly bullish. The current price of 0.08223 is already close to the intraday high, next we will see if it can hold above 0.0826. Today it dropped first then pulled back. The intraday low reached 0.07786, with significantly more long positions liquidated than shorts; the sharp drop mainly cleared leveraged longs chasing the rally. The price only rebounded after this batch of leverage was cleared, and the driving force behind this rebound seems more like spot and light-position funds, making the market cleaner than in the morning session. The trading volume is clearly higher than open interest, indicating sufficient turnover and rapid chip rotation, with leverage not increasing. On the chart, the 7/25/99 moving averages are still in a bearish alignment, reflecting the previous trend since moving averages lag. The real level to break is the descending trendline, which is currently being tested with volume on the rise; during pullbacks volume shrinks quickly, indicating light selling pressure. The condition to turn bearish again: a drop back below 0.07786, which would indicate no buyers after the washout and invalidate the bullish view. Netflix's Q3 is very likely to follow the old script of impressive numbers but the stock price not responding. It just reported 12.56 billion and a net profit of 3.4 billion in Q2, already putting concerns about growth peaking on the table. Will growth slow down? Yes, and it's not a question but a certainty. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 1. The scale is too large. With 325 million paid subscribers, further growth is tough; future hopes rest on emerging markets and new price hikes. 2. The bonus from free riders converting to paid accounts has basically been exhausted. 3. Spending is more aggressive: content expenses hit 20 billion, and the operating margin guidance of 31.5% is actually lower than market expectations. But Netflix is smart in shifting its growth engine from adding subscribers to advertising: Advertising is the real story. The ad tier had over 250 million monthly active viewers in May, with more than 60% of new sign-ups choosing the ad-supported tier, and CPM is 41% higher than traditional streaming. Advertisers have also surpassed 4,000, up 70% year-over-year. Ad revenue is about $1.5 billion in 2025, expected to double to $3 billion in 2026, and ambitiously reach $9 billion by 2030. Currently, ads only account for 8% of total revenue, leaving significant growth potential. Netflix $NFLX is still worth holding, just transitioning from a high-growth stock to a cash cow. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Term Structure Radar The scale of the first positive spread for $ETH is very small. The near-buy and far-sell quote spread is +0.57%, with the first pair scale around $994; at a scale of 10,000, this only covers about 10%. Small orders can probe, but for large volume, deeper levels must be observed. Solana is currently the public chain with the highest application revenue. In the past 30 days, its application revenue reached $193.1 million, nearly double that of its closest competitor Hyperliquid ($86.5 million), followed by Ethereum ($53.8 million) and Robinhood Chain ($34.6 million). This leading advantage comes from consumer applications, which contribute about 80% of the application revenue, including products such as Launchpad, trading terminals, and digital collectibles. The remaining revenue comes from decentralized exchanges, lending, and other DeFi protocols. This revenue structure has been controversial: its revenue essentially comes from transaction fees on speculative Meme coin trading, and the Meme coin market is entirely driven by narrative hotspots. The general market view is that once the hype fades, trading volume and fee revenue will also decline. To verify whether this judgment applies to Solana, this report evaluates the sustainability of consumer application revenue. The report then studies the ecosystem construction beyond the consumer application layer, covering various sectors on Solana and analyzing their growth trends, including lending, decentralized exchanges, and most importantly, real-world assets (RWA)—a sector that has achieved rapid growth on Solana over the past year. Solana consumer applications have already achieved high speed. Solana is a high-throughput public chain that enables on-chain operations to be fast, low-cost, and smooth, which #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Core Judgments - Revenue/Profit Still Growing but Growth Rate Slowing: Revenue around $45.2 billion in 2025 (+16%), net profit about $11 billion (+26%); 2026 revenue guidance $51–51.4 billion (+13%–14%). - Users and Viewing Time: Paid members exceed 325 million, total viewing time about 97 billion hours in the first half of 2026 (YoY +2%). - Management Acknowledges: Co-CEO states "growth speed below expectations," efforts underway to accelerate. Reasons for Slowdown - Intensified Competition: YouTube/TikTok diverting viewing time, U.S. streaming accounts for about 49% of TV viewing, YouTube about 14.2%, Netflix about 7.8%. - Content and Cycle: Hit show rhythm fluctuates, investment efficiency under scrutiny; subscriber decline and layoffs occurred in 2022. - Penetration and Price Increases: Global penetration approaching saturation, the new user effect from price hikes and cracking down on password sharing weakens .$SNDK perpetual 75x short position, opened at 1414.1, now at 1381.4, floating profit +173.43%. The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that chips are ready to be distributed. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 1414.1, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 75x leverage, stop loss at 1450. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly. At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 1400 to let profits run. If 1350 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it can't fall further, exit completely. $BTC $ETH #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 My take on Earning Season 📈 $NVDA pre-market at $224.08 (-0.99%) - watching 224.00 support level for today's open. Bid side strong at 89.4% showing buyer interest. Holding my short term position for earnings volatility. 🎬 **Netflix Earnings: The $0.84 Line!** The key question is whether Netflix can beat $0.84 in GAAP EPS. At exactly $0.84, NO wins; YES requires EPS above $0.84. With guidance near $0.82, the result could be close. Ad growth and cost control may change the outcome. #Netflix #EarningsSeason #PredictionMarkets "After BTC's fake drop, next week is the real judgment day (｡•́︿•̀｡)" In 24 hours, 320,000 accounts were liquidated, $932 million evaporated, with bulls contributing $796 million — the bottom-fishers got carried away first (╥﹏╥). $BTC is currently around 82,000, having fallen below 80,000 in the morning only to be pulled back by shorts covering; it looks like a V-shaped rebound but is actually a "fake drop." The key zone is 80,000-81,500: the average cost area for ETFs. If the daily close fails to hold this range, ETF holders will collectively turn to losses, potentially triggering a chain reaction of stop-loss orders (;´Д`). $ETH: 2,500 is hanging by a thread, 2,650 has shifted from support to resistance, ETFs continue to bleed, and the rebound looks more like an escape window rather than a reversal (｡•́︿•̀｡). $SOL: struggling near 102, with the 50-day EMA at 107 pressing down; breaking below 99, 96 is beckoning (ﾟДﾟ;). Next week, watch these three levels: BTC 80,000 close; ETH 2,500; SOL 99. Before the FOMC, don’t use leverage to bet on direction; betting wrong is a "zeroing experience card" (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻. The market has risks; staying alive means there’s a next round. (・ω・)ノ #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Just woke up and saw "Tesla taking off," clicked to see the car really took off It's lively as always, and for OKX Prophet S3, this time I changed my vote to YES: Q3 EPS will exceed expectations. Deliveries reached 486,500 vehicles, about 5% higher than market consensus. Although it's down 2% year-over-year, it is improving quarter-over-quarter, and the European market is also warming up. The most critical part is energy storage. 13.7 GWh is indeed below market expectations, but UBS estimates the impact on EPS is only $0.03, so the gap isn't as big as imagined. Although the gross margin for energy storage dropped from 39.5% in Q1 to 20.4% in Q2, it still exceeds the automotive business's 16.3%, remaining Tesla's most profitable segment. It's true that automotive gross margin is under pressure, but deliveries exceeding expectations themselves dilute the cost per vehicle. Plus, with FSD gradually approved in Europe and subscription users nearing 1.3 million, software revenue could bring additional surprises. Capital expenditure is indeed large, exceeding $25 billion for the full year, and free cash flow has turned negative, but these are long-term investments and don't necessarily mean the quarterly EPS will miss expectations. Market sentiment is already very low; both JPMorgan and UBS have given neutral ratings, so expectations aren't high. Under these circumstances, as long as the automotive gross margin doesn't continue to deteriorate or the energy storage profit contribution improves slightly, it could deliver a surprise. So this time, I'm betting YES. It now feels more like a game of speculation and position washing, not a phase of mindless chasing of price increases. When you see accounts that "hold both long and short positions," do you first think of opportunity or risk? I'm watching a very interesting derivatives portfolio: in the same account, the BTC short position is making money, the ETH long position is losing, and the HYPE short position is losing the most heavily. This is not an ordinary retail investor's hedge; it looks more like expressing different judgments across different sectors. Snapshot of data, first clearly see the structure: - BTC short position with 40x full leverage, unrealized profit about 568,700 U, funding fee also positive at 64,100 U, liquidation price near 104,380, still some distance from current price. - ETH long position with 25x full leverage, unrealized loss about 922,700 U, funding fee negative 18,900 U, liquidation price 1,623.5, buffer is not thin but not thick either. - HYPE short position with 5x full leverage, unrealized loss about 3,909,400 U, but funding fee collected 1,042,000 U, liquidation price 99.76, this level is already very close. First look at momentum signals. BTC shorts are profitable, indicating the market still doubts the sustainability of the rebound; at least derivatives have not fully turned bullish. Positive funding fee means shorts are willing to pay to hold, a structure often seen in phases of "price rebound but sentiment hasn't caught up." ETH longs are losing money, but leverage is lower and margin sufficient, so not forced to exit yet. Now look at risk signals. HYPE shorts are the most vulnerable in the group.🏅 OKX Prophet Season 3｜Superforecasting Experiment #001 Is Tesla Q3 non-GAAP EPS > $0.43? ⭐ Market odds: Yes 72¢ / No 30¢ 🎯 My judgment: Yes 58% / No 42% So I’m buying No on this one. Continuing to use the "Superforecasting" method I practiced in the OKX AI trading competition: First, look at the Base Rate. Tesla’s last 8 earnings EPS: 4 beats, 4 misses, prior probability 50%. Then update with new information: 🌟 Consensus estimate about $0.453, higher than $0.43 → positive for Yes 🚗 Q3 deliveries 486,532 units, about 5.3% above expectations → slightly positive ⚡ Energy storage 13.7 GWh, about 13.8% below expectations → negative adjustment After combining: Yes 58% / No 42% But the market odds give No only 30¢: ✨ Edge(No) = 42% - 30% = +12% So even though I still think Yes is more likely, based on the odds, No is the better buy.
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