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This Rally May Not Be as Solid as It Looks
$BTC’s move toward $80K has real catalysts, but the market structure still demands caution. Spot ETF inflows and improving liquidity provide support, while over $4.3B in shorts have been liquidated, amplifying the upside. However, crowded longs increase volatility risk. If ETF demand and liquidity strengthen, the rally becomes more credible. Otherwise, this could still be a massive Short squeeze rather than a sustained trend. Bitcoin surged from around $64,000 to $79,000, nearly 25% in just a few days, with bears losing billions of dollars in direct losses. There is a key detail in this round of rallying: the U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, raising it from $2 billion to $4 billion per transaction. The 30-year Treasury yield has since retreated from its 2019 high, easing market concerns about liquidity. Then came the familiar scenario—BTC breaking through key levels, short stop-losses, chain liquidations, and the price rising more and more people chasing after it. Since Wednesday, leveraged funds have basically become the biggest fuel. But now, when asking "Has the bull market returned?", I think it's still too early. Indeed, many signals have started to strengthen. BTC has regained its key moving average, breaking through the $70,000 and $75,000 levels, and market sentiment has clearly shifted. Some analysts believe that continuous breakouts combined with bear squeeze already resemble a bear market bottom reversal. But here's the problem: this surge is happening too fast. If there is no sustained spot buying relay afterward, relying solely on short liquidations to push prices up, the fiercer the surge, the more severe the pullback may be. Another signal is even more dramatic—Zcash broke through $800, hitting a multi-year high, with a short-term increase of nearly 50%. BTC is starting to strengthen, and funds are turning to speculate on privacy coins, indicating that risk appetite in the market is indeed returning. Right now, I prefer to see this as a bear market reversal with a clearly higher chance of a reversal, but it's not yet time to call for a quick return to the bulls. What really matters is when BTC pulls back to 70,000 or 75,000The US stock market rebound is an illusion; the real risk lies in US Treasury yields!
On Friday, US stocks rebounded with the Dow rising 517 points, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.43% each, but all three major indices still closed lower for the week, with tech stocks remaining the main source of selling pressure this week.
The tech sector fell more than 3% this week, with some popular AI and growth stocks experiencing significant pullbacks, indicating that short-term pressure on high-valuation sectors remains considerable.
However, the long-term logic for AI has not changed, and capital has clearly started rotating into healthcare, finance, raw materials, and cryptocurrency concept stocks.
Bitcoin rose about 22% in a single week, driving strong rebounds in Robinhood, Coinbase, and others.
Trump has again called for advancing the CLARITY Act, which has also added policy expectations to the crypto market.
What really needs attention now is the US Treasury.
The 10-year yield has risen back to around 4.73%, and the 30-year yield has reached 5.27%, with long-term bond rates still high.
After US debt surpassed $40 trillion, although the Treasury has increased long-term bond buybacks, the market does not believe this will solve the fiscal deficit and debt expansion issues.
For US stocks, continued rises in long-term bond yields mean valuation pressure, especially for tech growth stocks.
However, if AI companies can maintain high-speed profit growth, this pressure will not easily change the long-term logic of tech stocks.
Two things are most worth watching next week:
One is the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation and interest rates at the Jackson Hole meeting.
$BTC #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
Many people overlook the hidden risks in derivatives. During this rally, the contract market has accumulated a lot of long leverage.
Once the price at the high level drops, leveraged long positions will trigger a chain of liquidations, further amplifying the correction. Even if the spot market logic remains intact, the contract market can still cause a short-term sharp decline.
Currently, the market is in a very conflicted situation:
Spot ETFs are still seeing inflows, representing large funds willing to buy for the medium to long term, but many short-term traders are rushing in on the positive news, pushing leverage higher. Institutions buy with a multi-month big-picture view, while contract traders are betting on breaking 80,000 soon; the timeframes are completely different.
Two types of shakeouts:
① Time for space
If the price doesn’t drop significantly, it will oscillate back and forth within the large range of 74,300‑79,603.
Repeated spikes up and down will wash out leveraged positions chased at high levels and fully digest floating chips. After sufficient washing out, the price will attempt to test the 80,000 level again. This movement doesn’t look scary but is very mentally exhausting, sweeping stop losses back and forth.
② Violent pullback
Directly breaking below the key moving average at 74,311 triggers a wave of long liquidations.
The first downside target is near the MA90 moving average at 71,102, which is a larger-level support in this round.
Note: Even if it drops to this level, it doesn’t mean the bull market is over; it’s a deep correction after a big rally, but short-term accounts will suffer huge drawdowns, and heavy positions will be painful to hold.
Two signals to watch closely:
1. ETF capital flow must not reverse
The foundation of all bullishness now is the continuous net inflow of ETFs. If ETFs start to see continuous net outflows one day, be alert; institutional funds are starting to withdraw, and the market logic will change.
2. The 74,311 defense line
On the hourly level, as long as the price firmly stands above this moving average, the bullish structure remains; if it breaks down effectively, short-term risk avoidance is necessary, and don’t stubbornly hold on.
Realistic insight:
The phase where it’s easiest to lose money in a bull market is precisely this high-level oscillation period full of positive news.
Everyone is brainwashed by various institutional reports and big names’ speeches, only seeing upward potential in their minds while selectively ignoring correction risks.
It’s not that the market will crash at the top, but the risk-reward ratio at high levels has worsened.
If you haven’t entered, there’s no need to chase the rally; if you already have positions, set a good exit baseline for yourself and don’t blindly hold on.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？
Solana has sped up.
The block time was cut directly from 400 milliseconds to 350 milliseconds, and the next step is to reach 200 milliseconds; the testnet has already achieved 182 milliseconds. Blocks are produced faster, transaction confirmations are shorter, and the experience for high-frequency trading and on-chain applications will be much better.
But the flip side of speeding up is that the node threshold is rising. Validator nodes now require a standard configuration of a 24-core CPU, 512GB memory, enterprise-grade NVMe SSD, and 10G network. If the speed increases further, some nodes may not keep up, operational costs will only rise, and validator concentration might increase.
The impact on SOL can be viewed from two layers.
In the short term, sentiment is positive. The market will give positive feedback to technical upgrades; SOL rose to 88.5, up 5.5%. But the speed-up benefits have already been partially priced in, so don’t blindly chase just because of this.
In the medium term, two things matter: whether node decentralization will worsen due to rising thresholds, and whether the ecosystem can bring more users and on-chain revenue because of the speed-up. If it’s just speed without ecosystem growth, this will be a short-term event.
This cannot be the basis for our operations, so be patient and wait. It’s not too late to decide what to do once the direction of the market is clear.
$BTC $SOL PMI hits a four-year high, the Federal Reserve is arguing, BTC/ETH quietly rejoice
In August, the US composite PMI reached 56.0, the fastest since April 2022, with the services sector soaring to 56.8. The economy is heating up like this, yet selling price inflation has actually cooled down (input costs remain high due to energy) — this data can be interpreted in opposite ways by anyone.
The Federal Reserve has split into two camps: three hawks oppose holding steady, Kashkari says it’s time to start raising rates now; doves point to cooling inflation, Treasury Secretary Yellen says "no need." CME pricing shows 59.9% chance of no change, 40.1% chance of a rate hike, essentially no clear pricing.
The most surprising is the market reaction. PMI beating expectations should theoretically be negative for risk assets, but $BTC pulled up near 79,000, $ETH touched over 2,500, and $SOL was even stronger — today it broke $100 directly, reaching a high of 102.66 (weekly gain over 20%, coinciding with the 350ms Slot upgrade catalyst), with the total market at 2.55 trillion. Why? Because the more contradictory the data, the less the Fed dares to move, and the unresolved September decision is the biggest positive — uncertainty is better than a certain rate hike.
But don’t celebrate too early. Any inflation data before the September FOMC could overturn the table; BTC and ETH are now hanging in midair.
Short-term watching the show, just sharing thoughts.
#美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 1. Saylor is changing the logic of corporate asset holdings. Michael Saylor's greatest innovation is turning Bitcoin from a personal investment into a reserve asset on corporate balance sheets. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continuously buys BTC through financing, stock issuance, and other means, deeply binding the company's value to Bitcoin. Currently, Strategy remains one of the largest publicly listed corporate Bitcoin holders globally, holding about 840,000 BTC. The core logic of this model: cash depreciates due to inflation, while Bitcoin is scarce. Therefore, companies choose to convert part of their funds into BTC, hoping for higher long-term returns. 2. Why is the market starting to discuss "copying the Saylor model"? As Bitcoin rises, more companies are paying attention to this model. In the past, companies bought gold or bonds; now some ask: why not include BTC in corporate asset allocation? Supporters believe: Saylor created a new capital management method, giving companies a tool to combat currency depreciation. But opponents argue: this is actually a high-risk model. Because company value heavily depends on BTC price increases. If BTC rises long-term, the company's financing-to-buy-BTC model may continuously amplify gains; but if BTC enters a prolonged bear market, it could also amplify corporate pressure. 3. Is the Saylor model really a bubble? The key is not in "buying BTC" itself, but in $TRUMP
TRUMP (TRUMPUSDT) surged from $1.3 to $2.8, representing a politically driven Meme coin sentiment rally. The direct trigger was Trump's positive statements on crypto, expressing consideration for the U.S. government to purchase digital assets and promote crypto-related legislation, which boosted risk appetite across the crypto market and drove capital into this politically themed token.
At the same time, a short squeeze occurred, with a large number of short positions liquidated earlier, further propelling the price upward rapidly. The market liquidity is thin, so even a small amount of buying can amplify the price surge. This coin has no business operations or cash flow support; its value is entirely tied to the hype around Trump-related news. 80% of the tokens are held by related parties, posing a significant risk of large-scale unlocking and sell pressure.
The market is highly sentiment-driven, and after the positive news is priced in, a rapid decline is very likely. News reversals or regulatory investigations could trigger a sharp crash. Future price movements will depend entirely on political news and capital interest, with no stable fundamentals.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 The script has long been written, but you extras insist on waiting until the sound engineer calls "Cut" before leaving the set.
The $BCH chart is a classic "three-act structure"—Act One is accumulation, Act Two is shakeout, Act Three is distribution. The current price level is exactly the "plot twist" at the end of Act Two. The director has already called "Action" behind the scenes, but the extras are still huddled trembling in the corner of the set.
RSI on the 1-hour chart is 54.9, neither reaching the "wrap-up scene" of overbought nor falling into the "flop warning" of oversold. The Bollinger Bands range from 272.6 to 304.6, this channel is my camera track—the price is slowly climbing along the middle band, much like a handheld stabilizer following the protagonist’s back, slow but steady.
The 282.9 price level is the main scene of today’s shoot. The market makers have set up a stage here, using retail investors’ panic as free props, repeatedly calling "NG" and reshooting the shakeout scenes. Those who cut losses around 270 are the extras who left early, not even getting a boxed lunch.
I’m watching the 4-hour Bollinger Band upper band at 228.79—no, don’t rush, that’s the climax of Act Two. What we need to do now is to enter during this "plot gap," set up the camera between 280 and 285, and wait for the director to call "Roll Sound."
Stop loss is set at 181.33, which is the "bottom line script" of the whole play. If it breaks below, it means the screenwriter has gone mad and the whole film will turn into a horror movie. But in my view, this probability is minimal—because the director hasn’t released the "dialogue" of good news yet.
The box office targets are clear: first stop at 304.6, which is the Bollinger Band upper band and the popcorn moment when the audience is most excited; second stop, let the bullets fly a little longer, see if the 4-hour line can break the previous high and play a "sequel preview."
Now it’s the final three-minute countdown before shooting starts. The lighting crew is in position, the sound engineer is ready, the clapperboard is raised—
- Target: $BCH 🎬
- Entry: 280.5 - 285.5
- TP1: 304.6
- TP2: 228.79
- SL: 181.33
Don’t you dare leave early before the director calls "Cut."
#MarketOverloadWeek 🎥Binance Coin broke 70,000, a data reminder: don't chase D
Behind this surge, there is a very alarming signal: the price is rising, but the spot premium is not following. During the first wave of the rally last night, Binance Coin rose, spot buying followed, and the price and spot premium rose in sync, which is a relatively healthy upward structure.
But today the situation started to change. Binance Coin continued to break through 70,000, yet the Coinbase Premium remained negative, even close to recent lows.
What does this mean?
The price is still rising, but real US spot funds are not chasing the price.
So it looks more like: futures buying → K order covering → leverage pushing the price further up.
This is what I am most cautious about now—the "price rises, spot does not follow" futures divergence. Once this structure persists, the price usually needs to return to find real spot support. So besides holding C as originally planned, I will not chase D here.
69,700 is likely the next position to retest. If after the retest the spot premium strengthens again, that would be a more solid bullish structure.
A truly healthy bull market should not only have rising prices. Spot capital must also keep up.8.22# US PMI hits a four-year high, September rate hike disagreements intensify
Analyzing Gao Zhikai's current prediction of a financial tsunami and the true extent of the US AI bubble!
According to the latest data from August 2026, the US AI industry is already showing signs of a structural bubble, with some indicators even surpassing the peak of the 2000 internet bubble.
1. Valuations severely detached from fundamentals: The S&P 500 Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratio stands at 42.7x, only 1.3 points below the 2000 internet bubble peak. The total market value of the seven major US AI tech giants is $20.72 trillion, accounting for 36% of the S&P 500's total market cap, with market concentration reaching a 30-year record.
2. Input-output completely unbalanced: The five major US tech giants have cumulatively invested $560 billion in AI, but actual AI business revenue is only about $35 billion. For every $16 invested, only $1 is earned back. Leading cloud providers' capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to reach $725 billion, partly relying on debt financing. The industry's financing gap may reach $700-800 billion.
3. Localized bubbles have already burst first: In July 2026, the US AI stock sector suddenly crashed, with giants like Google, Amazon, and Nvidia seeing significant market value evaporation. At the same time, prices for large AI models dropped nearly 25% within a month, and many pure AI concept companies' stock prices have retraced 90% from their highs. The "narrative without performance" bubble has begun to clear out. The truth behind the surge above 77,500: shifting from short squeeze to spot buying, how far can this rally go?
Bitcoin surged nearly 20% in three days to stand above $77,500, directly breaking the months-long low volatility stalemate.
Many are still debating whether this is a false breakout, but the microstructure of the market has already provided the answer. The recent price action may have included a short squeeze stampede, but with a single-day spot ETF net inflow surpassing $826 million and Coinbase spot premium continuing to widen, this rally has completely evolved into real money buying by institutions and large OTC funds in the spot market.
When the nature of capital flow changes, the market's support strength undergoes a qualitative shift. As long as ETF and spot buying do not experience a cliff-like shrinkage, any deep intraday sharp drop will be quickly absorbed by OTC limit orders. In this strong right-side main upward wave, blindly guessing the exact absolute top is not only meaningless but also likely to cause missed opportunities.
In terms of trade execution, the most rational move for low-position holders at this stage is to use dynamic trailing stops to lock in profits. As long as the four-hour volume breakout point is not broken, they should firmly hold onto their low-cost chips. For traders currently out of position, do not chase aggressively at the volume-accelerated peak; patiently waiting for a daily-level low-volume pullback confirmation is a buy point with a better risk-reward ratio.
Are you choosing to continue holding firmly around $77,500 with the trend, or have you already started taking profits in batches?
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ While BTC is driving its price toward $80,000, it is important to note that the real upward momentum in the market comes more from derivatives short covering than from spot buying. Behind the seemingly strong bullish trend, how much do futures market position liquidations and risk re-evaluations contribute? The facts confirmed in the original text are as follows: BTC is in a phase of strengthening buying pressure toward $80,000, and ETH has regained $2,500, confirming its upward momentum. SOL is approaching the key resistance at $100. ETF inflows, expectations of improved liquidity, and short covering were cited as factors supporting the market. However, there was also a warning that as momentum enters an overheated zone, volatility near major resistance levels could increase. The structural characteristic of this movement is the risk reset in the derivatives market. Short covering acts both as a result and a cause of price increases. If liquidations occur in a chain reaction, the speed of the rise accelerates, but the key question is whether spot demand accompanies it to support the sustainability of the rise. ETF inAfter the daily candle closed on Thursday, I suddenly felt that the inflow numbers for ETFs are no longer the main focus. Have you ever wondered why this wave of money isn't flowing into altcoins, but is instead crowding at the gates of BTC and ETH? The data is actually simple: that day, the BTC ETF absorbed 606M, the ETH ETF also took in 221M, totaling 827 million USD in one day. Sounds hot, right? But what concerns me is not the total amount, but the structure—BTC took the lion's share, ETH was just incidental. This is not some even distribution; institutions are selecting the assets least likely to go wrong. The market is actually trading on an expectation: in a rate cut cycle, whoever first gains certainty will attract the first batch of money. BTC is the narrative of "digital gold," a dual insurance of risk hedging and appreciation. What about ETH? It feeds on the imagination of "staking yields + ecosystem recovery," but the pricing given by capital is clearly more cautious. This difference is not temporary; it is the result of layered risk preferences—big money seeks stability, small money bets on flexibility. An easily overlooked signal is: this inflow is not driven by retail FOMO, but by the ETF's mechanistic buying. It means that even if prices pull back, as long as the macro environment doesn't collapse, this money won't easily withdraw. Because their holding logic is "allocation," not "speculation." But a sober word must be said: this concentrated inflow itself is also a risk signal. When all incremental funds rush to two targets, the liquidity of altcoins is actually being drained. You $BTC surged to $79.8K at one point, then fell back to around $77.1K, signaling a cooling of the short-term rally. This is when emotional trading is most likely to occur: fear missing out when prices rise, panic resumes when pullbacks. But what truly deserves attention is the funding situation. Even when BTC experienced a pullback, spot ETFs still recorded a net inflow of about $320M, indicating that institutional funds did not quickly withdraw due to short-term volatility. Prices cooling down does not mean funds are exiting. If ETF funds continue to flow in during pullbacks, the real key for the market is not "FOMO now," but whether buyers can continue to bear selling pressure and hold key support levels. Don't be led by a single red candlestick. Don't chase emotions, track your funds. 📊💰 #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #CryptoMarketBTC at $78K: Opportunity or FOMO Trap? 🚨
The timeline is full of people yelling “$130K next!” — but after a violent short squeeze, excitement can become more dangerous than the move itself.
Yes, the rally has real fuel behind it: liquidity support, nearly $1B of ETF buying in three days, and massive short liquidations. The logic is real.
But here’s the problem: the market may have already priced in the good news.
#DailyOrbit ZEC has broken 800.
It's not a small rise; it surged over 30% in 24 hours, reaching a high near 859.
The 2018 peak was around 800, and it hasn't returned since. This time it broke through directly.
//
The drivers are clear.
Grayscale is pushing its Zcash Trust to convert into a spot ETF, planned to be listed on NYSE Arca with the ticker ZCSH.
DCG-related entities are also discussing acquiring about 200,000 ZEC through the trust, roughly $160 million at the time.
Institutional allocation expectations have suddenly risen.
//
Another angle is the privacy narrative.
Zcash uses zk-SNARKs, zero-knowledge proofs, with optional privacy.
Shielded pool usage is increasing, the network just completed the Ironwood upgrade, and with the AI era, people are becoming more sensitive to data privacy.
These factors combined have boosted sentiment.
//
The privacy coin sector has been quiet for too long. $ZEC has the highest technical maturity in this segment and the densest institutional signals.
But the 24-hour volatility exceeds 40%, futures trading volume has reached tens of billions of dollars, and leveraged funds are highly involved.
With this kind of movement, the risk of chasing highs goes without saying. Today's big surge in OKB is because Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen for several days, and now at the high level they are starting to adjust, funds are flowing out and back into OKB. What needs to be noted is that this wave started with OKB rising first, and this time in the big market trend, OKB's increase might lead; when OKB rises, others adjust, and when others rise, OKB adjusts.
With the clear bill vote approaching, whether it passes or not this time will not actually affect this round of the crypto market because other countries in the world are advancing crypto legislation. Russia, Japan, etc. If the US does not push forward quickly, it will fall behind. So although there are currently differences between the two parties regarding the bill, I expect both parties will ultimately compromise and pass legislation as soon as possible. The subsequent entry of large institutional funds is an unstoppable trend.
Besides the overall industry benefits, OKB also has the gradual advancement of public chain X. Additionally, after Fec invested in OKX, the expectation of going public has become very clear. Therefore, I am very optimistic about this wave for OKB, and I expect it to at least break a new high above 300. Let's wait and see! #WhiteHouseSummit: Trump said he once discussed buying BTC
Digging deeper, the biggest problem with BTC now: the daily chart is seriously overbought
The 7-day RSI has shot up to 94+, which is an extremely overheated zone. Historically, this value almost always leads to a pullback or consolidation.
The daily price has already broken above the upper Bollinger Band, which is a typical sign of a peak exhaustion rally.
Many only see the rise and don't see the technical correction demand.
It's not a bearish sell-off; the gains are just too large and too fast, so the market must recover and digest the divergence.
The truth about the chip structure
1. Long-term chips are extremely stable
83% of all BTC on the network is held by long-term holders who are not moving it. This is the strongest bottom in a bull market, absolutely no sign of a top.
The main holders haven't fled; the overall trend is completely fine.
2. Short-term floating chips are completely rampant
The recent surge has attracted a massive influx of retail and short-term speculators; the high levels are all trend followers.
The main players are not dumping; they are just not pushing the price up.
Not making new highs is to wear down these high-level trend-following retail investors.
Core details of BTC strength and alt weakness
Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise, with all funds clustering around BTC.
This indicates one thing: institutions only dare to buy BTC, not altcoins.
The market is currently a zero-sum game, not a new bull market with incremental growth.
Without widespread liquidity flooding, BTC's solo new highs have very poor sustainability.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 2) What is noise and what is useful: The comparison of airline ETFs is at the product level and does not reflect industry prosperity or policy changes, so its informational value is limited. Coinbase released a listing roadmap involving four projects: BASECAT, DRB, POD, and GRASS. If trading starts, it may drive small-scale trading activity but lacks direct fundamental support. Venmo paying tuition is an innovation in consumer payments and has no direct transmission path to market sentiment.
The bullish side: If the airline defense sector later discloses actual orders or military budget, it may drive related tech stocks to move together, but currently there is no specific data support. The bearish side: If the market continues to question tech stock valuations or macro data weakens, ETF comparison news may be misread as a signal of industry shift and still needs verification.
What to continue following: Pay attention to whether the US fiscal budget mentions defense spending and whether changes in crypto asset liquidity resonate with US tech stocks. BTC is up 1.18% in 24h, ETH up 2.49%, SOL up 4.30%, with short-term volatility rising, possibly reflecting short-term risk appetite fluctuations but no clear trend formed.
For information and market scenario analysis only, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.The true value of OKB has long been underestimated by many.
Many people only focus on the price fluctuations of OKB, overlooking the real logic behind platform tokens.
In a bull market, most altcoins rise based on sentiment, while platform tokens are more influenced by trading activity, ecosystem development, and user growth. When market volume continues to expand, platform revenue and ecosystem activity increase, platform tokens often undergo a value re-evaluation.
I've recently observed a phenomenon: whenever the market surges, funds flow not only to BTC and ETH but also gradually return to leading platform tokens. The hotter the bull market, the more the platforms benefit—this is a key trend that is often overlooked.
Of course, every coin carries volatility risk, and OKB is no exception. Short-term price changes may be influenced by market sentiment, but what deserves more attention in the long term is whether the ecosystem continues to expand, application scenarios increase, and users keep growing.
My strategy is not to chase the rally but to focus on key levels and changes in market volume. The real big opportunities often come when others are ignoring them, not when the whole network is shouting.
Do you think OKB still has room to rise in this bull market? Feel free to leave your comments for discussion.
#OKB #BTC #ETH #PlatformToken #OKExPlanet @TrendingTopics This morning I saw news that ZEC surged 45% in a single day.
I didn’t chase ZEC at the top; instead, I decisively got on board with ZAMA, which also focuses on privacy but has greater potential.
Looking back now, ZAMA’s gains today have already surpassed ZEC’s.
Feels good.
The logic is actually simple: ZEC is essentially an independent privacy blockchain. If you want privacy, you have to first convert your assets into ZEC, then use ZEC to transfer — adding an extra layer of exchange cost, and the privacy capability is locked within its own chain, unable to break out.
ZAMA is different; it’s middleware, not a new blockchain. It can be directly embedded into Ethereum, Solana, and other blockchains and L2s you’re already using, allowing you to run encrypted smart contracts directly on the original chain without swapping tokens or migrating assets. Privacy is an "add-on" within the ecosystem you’re familiar with, not forcing you to move to a new world.
The technical approaches are from different generations: ZEC uses ZK (zero-knowledge proofs), which essentially means "proving I know a secret without revealing what it is" — it can only verify, but cannot compute directly on encrypted data.
ZAMA uses FHE (fully homomorphic encryption), which allows computation directly on encrypted data, and after decryption, the result is still correct, with data never exposed during the process. ZK is "proof," FHE is "computation," they operate on different dimensions.
So ZEC is a privacy asset, while ZAMA is privacy infrastructure — one is a single point, the other lays pipelines for the entire on-chain world. The imagination space for pipelines is naturally larger than for single-point assets. $ZEC $ZAMA On August 22 today, intraday $BTC spiked down below 77,000 USD, $ETH lost the 2400 level, and $SOL dropped about 11.5%; in the past hour, the entire network liquidations reached 523 million USD, and 1.801 billion USD in 24 hours, with over 286,000 people liquidated, among which long positions accounted for 448 million.
The reason is simple: from August 19 to 21, the market just experienced a short squeeze of nearly 3 billion USD, with BTC quickly rising from 64,000 to above 77,000, gaining over 23% weekly, and high-leverage chasing long positions piled up; today, it hit the 80,000 resistance and pulled back, crowded long positions broke maintenance margin → system automatically liquidated at market price → sell orders further broke through the lower long position defense line, forming a chain reaction of long liquidations. Coinciding with European and American institutions leaving on Saturday and thin order book depth, this further amplified the spike.
Essentially, this is a "reverse stampede after a short squeeze," not a new major bearish event, but an inevitable cleanup under high leverage + liquidity vacuum. 77,000 USD is the current long-short dividing line; holding it means the structure is intact, losing it points to the 74,000-75,000 range.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ The Treasury expands long-term bond repurchases, which sounds like calming the market but actually exposes anxiety.
When long-term bond yields spike, Treasury, mortgage loans, corporate financing, and tech bonds are all strangled by the same rope. The government stepping in to buy back long-term bonds can suppress volatility in the short term, but the market's real concern isn't how much less debt is issued today, but whether there is a solution to long-term debt, inflation, and fiscal discipline.
If investors believe the problem is controllable, buybacks act as a stabilizer; if investors think it's just a painkiller, they will continue to demand higher compensation.
This is also why BTC and gold are bought together. On the surface, people are trading assets, but in their hearts, they are voting on the credit of the dollar and long-term interest rates.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 You are absolutely right 👏 This wave is a "retail high-leverage long suicide," not a short squeeze
*1. $XRP liquidation data for this wave*
**Item** **Data** **Explanation**
**$XRP drop** | -16.45% | From $1.70 → $1.42
**Liquidation reason** 100% longs Just as you said, shorts didn’t add, they actually decreased
**Core issue** **High leverage** Failed to hold $1.50, all 20x-50x long positions got liquidated directly
$1.50 is the previous trapped position + psychological level. If it can’t break through, all will blow up. Same logic as $BTC $80K, $ETH $2,500
*2. Why say "such a drop is inevitable even in a bull market"*
1. *Price rose too fast*: BTC +30% in 5 days. Everyone FOMO chased the top
2. *Leverage too high*: Bull markets kill the most. 10x holders endure volatility, 50x holders can’t even handle a pinprick
3. *Liquidity trap*: CNY market, weekends, mornings. A deep pull triggers stop losses sliding 30% easily
Institutions buy spot at $72K, retail opens 50x longs at $1.70. Different goals, the latter dies
*3. Where to watch $XRP now?*
Structurally:
1. *First support: $1.20 - $1.25*
Previous platform + large chip zone. Holding this can push back to $1.50
2. *Lifeline: $1.00 round number$ETH Majhi retraced 2 million in 80 minutes, Ethereum breaks down from a high level, the weekend shorting script is set!
Family, good weekend. Let's analyze today's Ethereum script based on the latest on-chain news and market trends.
According to breaking news, the on-chain whale "Majhi" turned $152,000 into over $10 million within 3 days, but then experienced a sharp pullback of $2 million within 80 minutes. Currently, he still holds heavy long positions of 888.88 BTC and 19,100 ETH, with an unrealized loss of 470,000 on BTC and an unrealized profit of 2.17 million on ETH.
Even large funds are under huge selling pressure in the current market. Such heavy long positions are like a huge stone pressing down on the market, ironically becoming the main force's best excuse to shake out positions over the weekend.
Looking at the market, Ethereum has dropped sharply from a high of 2549, breaking through 2450 with a large bearish candle. The current rebound is very weak, firmly suppressed below 2450. The deep wick down to 2384 at noon found some support below but also exposed the heavy trapped positions above.
With US stock markets closed over the weekend and liquidity drying up, false breakouts are most likely. The major trend has turned weak, and our approach is simple: do not chase longs, look for short positions at high levels.
Focus on the resistance zone between 2450-2460. As long as a stagnation signal appears upon rebound here, it is an excellent position for us to set up short orders. Set stop loss above 2480, with initial targets at 2400, and if broken, then 2380.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $BTC Gold surges, three key events next Wednesday will influence positions
The US dollar index fell below 99, gold rose above $4600, Bitcoin's weekly gain exceeded 20%. The core logic of this round of the market is concern over the US dollar's credit. Dalio has also warned of long-term risks in US debt, making gold and BTC preferred hedges.
Three key events next Wednesday:
1. Implementation of geopolitical energy-related policies, risk aversion sentiment is expected to push gold to challenge 4700;
2. A hawkish speech at Jackson Hole will suppress risk assets, while a dovish signal will benefit BTC;
3. Rising PCE inflation data is a short-term negative for the crypto space but will strengthen the long-term logic of a weaker dollar.
Short-term volatility does not require easy exit; US fiscal issues are difficult to resolve quickly, and every pullback is an opportunity to position. The core focus next week is officials' speeches; maintain moderate positions, avoid full long or full short.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $BTC $ Four main reasons for the rapid midday drop
1. The previous rise relied on short squeeze, the upward foundation is fragile (core internal reason)
The big surge a few days ago was largely driven by forced buy orders from short liquidations, not by a large influx of new long-term funds. After the shorts were basically liquidated, the upward momentum disappeared; a large number of leveraged long positions accumulated at the high level, the market was already overbought, and any slight disturbance easily caused a pullback.
2. Cooling of positive expectations, policy expectations fall short
The previous rise was betting on the rapid passage of the US crypto bill (CLARITY Act). The market gradually realized: the bill faces strong resistance in negotiations, multiple groups oppose it, it is only a draft, and it is difficult to pass quickly in the short term. The premium that was previously speculated has started to fade. The positive outlook was only "hope," not reality, so funds began to take profits and close positions.
3. Leveraged long positions liquidated in a chain reaction, accelerating the decline (why the drop was so fast)
Price broke down through key support levels, triggering forced liquidations of many leveraged long positions; the exchange system automatically sold BTC, further pushing the price down, causing more long positions to liquidate, creating a downward stampede. A large number of longs were liquidated in a short time at midday, directly driving the intraday crash and price spikes.
Market characteristics: rises rely on short liquidations, falls rely on long liquidations, leverage multiplies volatility.
4. Macro risk sentiment disturbance
Geopolitical tensions, rising market inflation concerns, a slight rebound in US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar; global risk assets are collectively under pressure, and Bitcoin, as a high-risk speculative asset, is sold off first.
Simple summary
- Trigger: profit-taking by funds + cooling of positive policy expectations
- Amplifier: chain forced liquidations of high-leverage longs causing a rapid crash in a short time.
Need to watch
This kind of correction after a surge has two possible paths:
① After a quick drop, hold key support and then oscillate again;
② Expectations worsen further, leading to a deeper correction.
No one can predict the subsequent rise or fall; volatility is extremely high. #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温
The latest PMI surged to 56.0, hitting a four-year high. The service sector is incredibly strong. Just as everyone was relieved by cooling inflation, this data sparked heated debates in the market about the future interest rate path.
1. Will there be a rate hike in September?
I believe the probability of restarting rate hikes is very low. Maintaining the status quo or following the established pace is highly likely. A strong PMI indicates economic resilience, giving the Federal Reserve more confidence to keep rates higher for longer, but there is no need to force rate hikes just to suppress normal service sector demand.
2. How will the market move next?
In the short term, BTC will most likely experience wide-range oscillations. Expectations for rate cuts are suppressed, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remain firm, and the market is prone to sharp spikes and sweeps. However, as long as there is no hard economic landing, these pullbacks caused by a strong economy are normal shakeouts of positions and won’t create a deep, bottomless pit.
3. My trading approach
▶️ Firmly avoid high leverage
Volatility is too intense during data battles, and betting on direction is easily liquidated both ways.
▶️ Filter out macro noise
I only use PMI as a sentiment reference. The real factors deciding my major position entries and exits are unemployment rate and core inflation.
▶️ Gradually accumulate spot positions
If short-term irrational sell-offs occur due to rate hike panic, it’s actually a good opportunity to build spot positions gradually.
Macro data changes daily. Blindly predicting the Fed’s throttle and brakes often leads to being proven wrong. Managing position size and extending the time horizon is much more effective than guessing data every day.
DYOR Is this BTC rally really stable? 🚨
BTC surged from $65K all the way to $73K, looking very aggressive, but I’m actually more cautious.
This rally might be driven by three forces simultaneously: easing macro environment + large-scale short squeeze + the possibility of whales selling into the hype.
The U.S. Treasury’s long-term debt buybacks have also given some breathing room to risk assets, with the 30-year Treasury yield falling from 5.34% to 5.19%.
So, don’t get blinded by a big bullish candle.
A true bull market breakout requires sustained volume and capital confirmation, not just a wave of emotional euphoria. 👀📈
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
#DailyOrbit $BTC breaking above $77,500 is not the most noteworthy headline; what truly matters is whether this rally can be sustained by real capital. In the past few days, BTC has surged over 20% at one point, and short-term profit-taking could increase at any time. However, the latest data shows that the combined net inflow of US spot BTC and ETH ETFs in a single day was about $825.8M, indicating that behind this rally, it's not just short positions being undone—new funds are entering the market. Meanwhile, BTC ETF capital flows clearly rebounded during the week, with a weekly net inflow of about $1.6B, while ETH also surpassed $2,300, indicating that funds are not concentrated solely on BTC. Next, I focus more on three signals: 📌 whether ETF funds can continue to maintain net inflows 📌, whether spot trading volume can keep up with price increases 📌, and whether leverage is starting to accumulate excessively. If funds continue to drive prices rather than relying solely on short squeeze, the credibility of this breakout will significantly increase. $BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #PopMartEarningsWatch #Gold4600VsBonds #ETHWipes1.1BShortsA four-year high in the US August composite PMI complicates the easing narrative. Services outperformed expectations, while manufacturing missed but remained in expansion, suggesting growth has not stalled even as softer CPI, PPI and jobs data reduced the urgency of a September hike.
My read: resilience is supportive for earnings, but it also gives FOMC hawks more room to argue that demand could slow disinflation. That makes Treasury yields the key transmission channel for stocks, gold and BTC; strong growth may help risk assets only if rate expectations stay contained.
Not advice, just analysis.
#USPMIRevivesHikeBetsWhat truly excites me about this $BTC rally is not the 79,000 price, but the underlying capital logic behind it.
In the past, BTC's rise was often driven by sentiment.
But this time it's clearly different.
The U.S. Treasury has expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, easing pressure on the bond market; meanwhile, spot BTC ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows, with a net inflow of about $1.61 billion this week.
Add to that the concentrated short squeeze, which directly created a liquidity-driven stampede rally.
That's why BTC accelerated from over 60,000 all the way to around 79,000.
But the stronger the rally, the more we must not ignore the pullback.
Right now, my main focus isn't on 80,000, but on:
Whether 75,000 can hold.
Holding 75,000 and then breaking through 80,000—that's the healthiest trend.
A direct surge to 80,000 followed by a massive drop—that's when you need to be cautious.
Because a true bull market isn't afraid of pullbacks.
What we fear is:
A rise driven by short squeezes, but no spot capital to support the pullback.
The upcoming BTC candlesticks will tell us whether this rally marks the start of a new trend or just a crazy liquidity release.BTC has recently climbed back above $77K, with short-term momentum clearly strengthened, but what I focus on now is not the next candlestick but whether the capital flow will continue. The latest data shows that on August 20, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $606M, with about $517M inflows the previous day; The total over two days exceeded $1.1B. Meanwhile, BTC briefly surged above $79K+ this week, indicating that institutional funds and short covering are jointly driving this rally. But there is also a key watershed: 🟢 sustained ETF inflows + amplified spot trading + genuine buying → indicating a capital base for the rally, and the trend may continue. 🟠 Rapid increase in futures open interest + leverage leading the rise + shrinking spot trading volume → then be cautious, as this may just be a short-term market driven by leverage. So, I won't rush to guess the top of $BTC. Price tells you what is happening in the market, making it easier for capital flows to tell you whether this rally can go far. Next, focus on whether the $78K–$80K range can hold and whether ETF funds continue to remain strong. If funds continue to absorb market supply, there may still be room for a breakout; If prices hit new highs but funds start diverging, risk signals will increase significantly. Now is not the time to guess the top, but to test whether funds are truly willing to continue following the trend. 👀 $BTC #BTC79K #BitcoinFlOn Friday, the public comment window for U.S. federal regulators officially closed, revealing a major new regulation targeting stablecoins. The new rule, jointly promoted by five federal regulatory agencies, requires every stablecoin to complete identity verification. This means that mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT, which have long operated in a regulatory gray area, will be forced to fully comply with traditional financial regulatory frameworks. The shockwave of the new regulation first hits the market's most sensitive corners. For institutional players with the largest capital volumes, the identity verification mechanism is an almost insurmountable barrier—they will most likely choose to exit and observe. And what about ordinary retail investors? Users accustomed to anonymous and convenient transactions may need to reconsider whether they are still willing to participate in this game under the regulatory spotlight. While stablecoins face this "tightening," another sector sends a completely different signal. The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency has dropped a heavier "bomb": it is officially considering recognizing cryptocurrencies as qualified collateral assets for applying for home loans. This means that in the future, $BTC holders might be able to directly use Bitcoin as collateral to leverage a mortgage loan. The regulatory balance is subtly shifting: on one side tightening, on the other loosening; on one side forcing stablecoins to bow to traditional financial rules, on the other opening the door for cryptocurrencies to enter the mainstream financial system. Is this a "block" or a "release"? There is no conclusion yet, but at least it is clear—the regulators have not chosen an outright blanket ban but are tentatively reshaping the boundaries. Regarding#WhiteHouseSummit: Trump said he once discussed buying BTC
Let's talk about the very real current market situation. BTC is strong alone, most altcoins haven't really kept up.
BTC's market cap dominance keeps rising, indicating that institutional money coming from outside is almost entirely concentrated in Bitcoin, with very little flowing into the altcoin sector.
This means that we are not in a full bull market, but rather a structural market led by BTC.
Many people have a misconception: when BTC surges, all coins will take off.
But this time it's different. Institutional funds only recognize BTC's compliant narrative, while altcoins are mostly manipulated by short-term speculative traders. When BTC enters a correction, altcoins often experience much harsher pullbacks than BTC, so this must be kept in mind.
Signals from the options market
There is now a large accumulation of call options in the 78,000-80,000 range, with heavy options resistance near 80,000.
Around the expiration date, prices are easily suppressed and it's difficult to break through in one go.
Even if the fundamentals are good, the options market will temporarily limit the upside.
Two mindsets that easily lead to pitfalls
1. Seeing institutions buying all the way, thinking the price can't fall
Institutions make allocations over months or even years; a few thousand points of correction is just volatility to them. But short-term accounts can't withstand such drawdowns. Institutions can stay calm, but ordinary retail investors holding heavy positions can easily lose their composure.
2. Thinking the bull market has arrived, so holding at any price guarantees a win
Even in a bull market, there are still 20%-30% intermediate corrections. Historically, every major bull run has had several such shakeouts. An upward trend does not mean there won't be deep dips.
Two key signals to watch closely next
① Observe the strength of support during corrections
If the price retraces near 74,300 and immediately sees buying support with volume picking up to stop the fall, then after consolidation there is confidence for further rally.
If this support level is easily broken and the rebound is weak, then don't stubbornly stay bullish; be prepared for the possibility of seeking support around 71,000.
$ETH $BTC $SOL After this big bullish candle on $BTC, I only have one question: who is taking the baton?
In the past few days, BTC has surged directly from around 64,000 to above 77,000, reaching a high of about 79,500.
This is not an ordinary rebound.
ETF capital inflows, the US Treasury expanding bond repurchases, improved regulatory environment, plus over $4 billion in short liquidations—all these forces are pushing the price upward simultaneously.
But now the candlestick has reached a very critical position.
79,000–80,000 is a psychological barrier and one of the biggest resistance zones ahead.
If there is a breakout with volume here, BTC could continue to open up more upside space.
But if repeated attempts leave long upper shadows and volume doesn’t keep up, then short-term caution is needed for a "sell the rally" scenario.
So now, don’t ask:
Is BTC in a bull market?
Instead, ask:
After breaking 80,000, who is still willing to buy at even higher prices?
If the answer is institutional capital continuing to enter, then the rally isn’t over yet.
If ETFs start to see sustained outflows, then the sustainability of this rise needs to be reassessed. $BTC and $ETH have not shown a clear direction recently, essentially reflecting the contradiction between a policy-driven rebound and liquidity that has not yet been substantially injected, resulting in the market lacking sustained upward momentum even after a breakout.
There are two core reasons:
1. 📈 Policy benefits trigger a violent rebound, but the foundation is unstable
The recent surge mainly stems from sentiment and short squeeze liquidations, rather than solid buying.
· Regulatory breakthrough: The White House sent friendly signals, and the SEC established new rules for token financing, greatly boosting confidence.
· Macro easing: The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, lowering yields and benefiting risk assets.
· Liquidation-driven: News triggered the largest short squeeze in nearly two years, with $BTC once approaching $72,000 and $ETH rising nearly 20% in a single day. However, this portion of the gains heavily depends on short covering rather than sustained capital inflows.
2. 🚰 "Money" has not truly arrived; spot demand is insufficient
This is the biggest constraint. The market has experienced a typical "liquidity transmission breakdown."
· $ETF continuous outflows: Even with price rebounds, spot ETFs are still bleeding, indicating institutional funds have not returned.
· Stablecoin contraction: The supply of stablecoins, the market's "blood bank," continues to decline, showing no new money entering to "catch the falling knife."
· Leverage fragility: The previous rebound was driven by high leverage, and this structure is prone to triggering cascading liquidations once sentiment shifts.
📊 Market status: Spring effect
Currently, the market is like a compressed spring. Fidelity's report points out that $BTC's current volatility is lower than about 98.5% of trading days historically. Such extremely low volatility usually means huge energy is accumulating, and once the direction is clear, it may trigger a sharp one-sided move.
💎 Summary and focus points
In short, policy expectations and capital realities are not yet aligned. The market is waiting for "fresh water."
You can focus on two signals:
· Capital side: Whether spot Bitcoin $ETF turns to sustained net inflows, and whether stablecoin supply stabilizes and rebounds.
· Policy side: The key Senate vote on the "Clear Act" in September and the final implementation of regulatory details.Let's continue talking about Bitcoin.
In just two days, BTC seems to have suddenly awakened from a low-volatility hibernation, shooting up from the 60,000s all the way to nearly 80,000. Many people are still immersed in the US stock market and AI trends, unable to switch channels in time, resulting in countless missed opportunities and liquidations. The intraday high reached 79,500, with the 80,000 round number just within sight.
But even with this rise, we still cannot definitively say whether this is a fierce short-term rebound or a test before the start of a new bull market.
The speed of the price increase is enough for us to upgrade the market status from an "ordinary rebound" to a "trend reversal attempt"; however, whether it can ultimately evolve into a bull market depends on whether spot funds continue to support after high-level turnover and the first pullback.
Looking back now, there were actually many signs before this rally started.
The most direct was the continuous net inflow into spot ETFs for several days. On August 20 alone, the US spot BTC ETF net inflow reached about $606 million, the largest single-day inflow since May 1. This indicates that this rally is not just speculative activity in the futures market; spot funds are indeed participating behind the scenes.
But even more interesting than the ETF data is the subtle shift in market attention.
Since the first crash in the storage sector in late July, people joked that "after getting hurt in US stocks, you still have to return to your original home." After SanDisk was pushed back near 1800 and liquidated again, the crowding and trading difficulty in popular US stock sectors increased further, and more people began to discuss BTC again.
This kind of shift in public opinion may seem like a meme, but it often precedes capital movement.
When popular US stock sectors like storage, AI, and aerospace repeatedly experience sharp rises and falls, traders’ attention and risk budgets naturally look for new outlets. BTC, long range-bound between $62,000 and $67,000 with low volatility and highly consolidated chips, suddenly looks very cost-effective.
When both public opinion and chip positions are ready, all it takes is a spark to ignite the market. Besent’s doubling of bond purchases served well as a lighter. Thinking about it, the Treasury’s doubling of long-term bond purchases has minimal actual improvement on liquidity and may even be harmful, as it seriously undermines fiscal discipline and damages the already fragile US dollar credibility. The dollar index has indeed weakened significantly as a result. A weaker dollar benefits gold and Bitcoin, a fact repeatedly confirmed in recent years.
Therefore, this rally can be summarized as:
Spot funds ignite the fire, Treasury news provides the macro rationale, short squeeze accelerates the move, and missed opportunity traders plus trend funds complete the second relay.
Several possible scenarios may follow:
1. Mimicking the November 2024 rally from 73k to 99k, a direct launch with no pullback, continuous divergence, high institutional control, shaking off all retail investors, pushing everyone into FOMO, forcing everyone to chase the rally, and after everyone has bought in, a sudden crash like the 126k event. This path is the most aggressive but also the most cost-effective, giving no cheap chips to retail and then dumping at the top, leaving retail investors wiped out.
The prerequisite for this strong path is that spot ETFs continue to maintain daily net inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars, and when prices fall, open interest decreases, spot funds continue to support without retreat, and supply between 78k and 82k is quickly absorbed. Once the weekly chart can hold above 82k, the market will trade 84k to 88k again, and in extreme cases, touch 90k. At that point, the probability of "restarting from the low 60,000s" will significantly decrease, and the bull market’s first major shakeout is more likely to complete above 75k.
2. Full turnover between 78k and 82k, then a pullback to 72k–75k. First, use the 80,000 round number to maintain market heat, bringing back missed opportunity traders, new shorts, and momentum buyers. Then, leveraging PCE data, Nvidia earnings, or the Jackson Hole meeting, complete a roughly 10% deleveraging. From the timing perspective, US Treasury yields remain high, and oil prices have not relieved upward pressure. Next week’s event density is just right to be utilized.
3. Build up longs near 80,000, then macro deterioration causes a drop back to the 60,000s. But note, a return to the high 60,000s is a normal shakeout; a return to the low 60,000s requires a confluence of spot demand drying up and macro negative factors. This also requires a longer preparation window.
Overall, the baseline scenario is full turnover between 78k and 82k followed by a pullback to 72k–75k, with adjustments made according to macro and market trends. But regardless of rise or fall, as long as volatility increases, capital attention will return, and the crypto market will come alive again. This way, everyone will have opportunities and won’t need to rush to compete for short-term gains. The market has just experienced a rapid sell-off, with leverage accumulated from the previous continuous rise starting to be concentratedly cleared. 📉 BTC briefly dropped about $1,800 💥 In the past hour, crypto futures liquidation volume exceeded $500M 🔥 High-leverage long positions in the market faced concentrated stop-losses, causing volatility to spike significantly. This pullback is worth noting, but it cannot yet be simply defined as a trend reversal. Just before this, BTC once broke through $79,000 and hit a multi-month high; meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $606M, with a cumulative inflow of about $1.6B over the past week, indicating that institutional funds still maintain strong participation. More importantly, the market has experienced massive short squeezes in recent days, with over $4B in short positions liquidated. When the market switches from "short squeeze-driven rally" to "long profit-taking + leverage cooling down," a rapid pullback is not surprising. 👀 What really matters now is not how much it has fallen, but whether BTC can quickly reclaim key levels. If spot buying reappears and the price stabilizes above the previous breakout zone, this may just be a leverage cleanup + healthy pullback. But if key supports are continuously lost and ETF/spot demand starts to weaken, then the correction space after this rally could further expand. Don't panic because of a sharp drop, nor blindly chase highs because of a rebound. The three most important signals now are: ➡️ Whether BTC holds the key support after the breakout ➡️ Whether spot funds are$BTC has surged to around 79,000, and the biggest risk now is not the bears, but chasing the highs.
This rally has been too fast.
Starting from around 64,000 to a peak near 79,500, it has risen over 20% in just a few days.
Behind this are the US Treasury expanding long-term Treasury repurchases, ETF funds flowing back in, and a large number of shorts being forced to cover.
Just this week, the net inflow into BTC spot ETFs reached about $1.61 billion.
So this is not just a pure sentiment-driven pump.
But the problem arises:
The more positive news there is, the more likely it is to be priced in early.
Right now, I actually see BTC’s real lifeline around 75,000.
If it can hold steady at 75,000 on a pullback and then surge again with volume to challenge 79,000–80,000, the significance of the breakout will be completely different.
But if it falls below 75,000 and the rebound weakens, beware that this short-term frenzied rally may enter a profit-taking phase.
Don’t go all in when everyone else is excited.
The truly comfortable position is often the first pullback after a breakout. Remember the date September 15. It's not a holiday, nor is it related to payday, but it is enough to rewrite the trajectory of the US crypto community for the next decade. Many may not have paid attention to the prediction market data; the estimated probability of the CLARITY Act 2026 passing is now only 19.5%. Looking back to February this year, the same indicator was as high as 82%, and the market almost took the bill's passage for granted. In just a few months, it slid from a sure thing to a slim hope. The deadlock in the whole matter is stuck on ethics-related additional clauses. The Democrats are very firm: if the bill does not include a ban, they will not vote in favor: the President, Vice President, and members of Congress are not allowed to issue or endorse digital assets while in office. From the perspective of ordinary people, this requirement is reasonable; public officials who hold policymaking power should avoid conflicts of interest with crypto assets. But everyone in the circle knows who this clause is targeting. The financial documents disclosed on June 30 for 2025 revealed shocking numbers. Trump's crypto-related income exceeded $1.4 billion. Among them, the TRUMP meme coin brought in $636 million, and World Liberty Financial contributed nearly $800 million. The entire report shows his total income last year was at least $2.2 billion, compared to $622 million in 2024, a 3.5-fold increase, with the vast majority of the increase coming from the crypto sector. The Reuters and Ipsos poll released on August 19 clearly reflects the current public opinion. 69% of Americans feel that the President's personal business incomeWhen a company's profits grow but free cash flow declines, and management boldly claims that free cash flow will grow by double digits in the second half of the year, on what basis? If we only talk about the core business, Walmart's $WMT latest earnings report is quite good in terms of revenue and profit: Total revenue for Q2 reached $187.9 billion, up 5.9% year-over-year; adjusted operating profit increased 17.4% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share reached $0.81, up 19.1% year-over-year; The company also raised its full-year guidance for sales, operating profit, and earnings per share. However, I think the cash flow changes in this earnings report are worth discussing, and looking at them reveals they are hard to achieve. Here are two data points to consider: Walmart's free cash flow in the first half of the year dropped from $6.943 billion in the same period last year to $5.529 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 20.4%; Yet management still expects free cash flow for the full fiscal year to achieve double-digit growth. What does this mean? Many may not have a clear idea. In the last fiscal year, Walmart's $WMT full-year free cash flow was $14.923 billion. Even at the minimum threshold of "double-digit growth" of 10%, this fiscal year needs to reach at least $16.415 billion. Subtracting the $5.529 billion already generated in the first half, the second half needs at least $10.886 billion, while last year's second half free cash flow was about $7.980 billion. Look at the chart I made; the purple part clearly shows the comparison.Baysent stated that he will maintain interest rates at all costs.
However...
After the repurchase announcement, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly fell to 4.65%, then rebounded to 4.73%.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market inexplicably heated up.
The rate decline triggered by Treasury intervention was completely reversed within a few days, causing volatility in certain asset classes.
This not only signifies the fading effect of the repurchase. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Baysent announced that Treasury repurchases will be conducted regularly,
and stated that if necessary, the scale of each repurchase could be expanded to over $4 billion, prompting the market to test this willingness.
The market is trying to confirm whether this $4 billion is just a verbal warning or the start of sustained intervention.
The message Baysent conveyed to the market is very clear.
Current long-term interest rates are higher than the fundamentals of the U.S. economy, excessively so, and if this persists, the Treasury will respond by expanding repurchase scale.
This is equivalent to publicly revealing a policy reaction function against rising long-term rates.
Hence the talk of a "U.S.-style yield curve control."
Of course, this is not formal YCC.
Baysent has not set a specific target rate, and the Treasury cannot print money to buy bonds like the Federal Reserve.
However, if intervention occurs whenever long-term rates threaten economic growth and financial markets, an implicit interest rate ceiling may form in the market.
What the market is now trying to confirm is whether this ceiling truly exists and whether the Treasury can persist.
However, relying solely on Treasury repurchases is unlikely to sustainably control long-term rates. Because if the Treasury suppresses long-term rates while the Fed raises policy rates, the two policies will conflict.
Therefore, Baysent mentioned inflation alongside repurchases.
He said that high oil prices are headline inflation only, while core inflation is declining.
This is the logic that the Fed does not need to raise rates due to rising oil prices, and also a message that the Fed should not act counter to the Treasury’s defense of long-term rates.
This does not directly limit the Fed’s authority, but...
If the Fed raises rates, not only will short-term rates fluctuate, but long-term rates will also become volatile, causing simultaneous pressure on stocks, corporate bonds, and real estate markets...
The U.S. government’s interest burden will also increase further.
By highlighting this policy conflict and market impact, Baysent can be seen as raising the threshold for Fed rate hikes.
However, there is a noteworthy point here.
Although the market is testing Baysent’s willingness and pushing Treasury yields higher, the dollar has not strengthened; instead, it quickly weakened.
This is the most important change in the current market.
Typically, when U.S. rates rise, the dollar strengthens.
But the current rate rise is not due to strong growth, but due to concerns over fiscal deficits, debt supply, and interest costs.
Therefore, the higher the rates, the weaker the U.S. fiscal trust, and the dollar weakens accordingly.
Conversely, even if Baysent succeeds in lowering rates by expanding repurchases, the conclusion will not change much.
Because if the Treasury lowers long-term rates while the Fed freezes policy rates, real rates and the attractiveness of U.S. assets will decline, weakening the appeal of holding dollars and causing it to weaken.
Ultimately, when rates rise due to fiscal risk, the dollar weakens; when rates fall due to rate control and declining real rates, the dollar also weakens.
These two seemingly opposite paths converge into a single conclusion of dollar weakness.
And Bitcoin’s rise fits perfectly with this.
Because when the conclusions of these two paths converge, the logic for assets moving inversely to the dollar also strengthens.
Those assets in inverse positions... such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc....
In the end, only growth can change this structure.
If AI and manufacturing investment translate into productivity and tax growth, rising rates can be reinterpreted from fiscal risk to growth outcomes, and trust can be rebuilt with growth as collateral, causing the dollar to strengthen again.
Until then, whether repurchases or other measures, Treasury and Fed policies are not about reducing debt but about buying time while waiting for growth.
The market is now testing whether Baysent can truly block long-term rates. Success means real rates fall; failure means fiscal trust weakens. The common conclusion the market finds from these two paths is obvious.
In the current dollar weakness, assets that can replace the dollar will strengthen. $ZEC is not alarmist; it feels like a black swan event or a crypto crash might happen in a few days, and the probability is quite high.
Currently, the market foundation is too weak, entirely a game of existing funds. Many price increases are just operators moving coins from one hand to another, buying and selling to themselves to fake trading volume and create false hype. There is no influx of new external funds, no sustained main theme, and various sectors pulse in turn for a one-day ride. Altcoins that surge to the top of the gainers list one day generally plunge deeply the next day. Essentially, this is a cycle of inducing buying and harvesting profits, not even meeting the standards of a small bull market, just a false prosperity created by inflated trading volume within a range-bound market.
You can see this anomaly clearly by looking at the gainers list: the top is the TRUMP meme coin with a 54.68% increase, followed by obscure small altcoins like ZAMA, MOVE, POL, and then privacy coins like ZEC and DASH. The mix is chaotic—political memes, unknown small altcoins, and established privacy coins all pulsing together with no unified logic.
A normal, sustained healthy market should have a single main sector leading the rise, with smaller coins in the same sector following suit neatly. But right now, the gainers list is a mess of coins with different narratives, reflecting funds aimlessly sweeping everywhere to create a false sense of activity. The play is to concentrate funds for a short-term pump, hit the gainers list to attract short-term chasing money, and then dump the next day.
This scattered pulsing rise has very weak risk resistance. Altcoins themselves have shallow market depth and poor liquidity. Once any trigger occurs (macroeconomic data, sudden regulatory news, stablecoin anomalies, large concentrated sell-offs, contract liquidations in chains), it easily triggers a cascade of selling and a stampede-style chain reaction of declines. It doesn’t take much bad news; once confidence breaks, everyone rushes to exit, and altcoins will crash with no one to catch the fall, evolving into a widespread crypto disaster.This $BTC trade was held for a week
Long position opened at 62800, 10x leverage
Margin 20U
Several times I wanted to exit, hands trembling when it dropped to 63800
But then I thought, liquidation is at 57000, far enough away
Light position, holding it doesn't hurt
Then it rallied all week
As soon as Dalio spoke, BTC surged straight to 77000
Didn't exit at 75000, wanted to see if it could touch 80000
Not greed, but the liquidity structure really changed this week
US Treasury repo + ETF inflows + weaker dollar
Three things combined, not common Some thoughts on privacy coins from last November, when ZEC was around $400
About more than ten years ago, darknet transactions were all done with BTC, but now BTC is no longer used because Chainalysis + AI have basically turned BTC into a completely transparent transfer network. Basically, many now use privacy coins.
In the future, left-wing forces represented by AOC and Mamdani may rise, and European countries and a major Asian country are also strengthening taxes on the wealthy. How can the wealthy technically protect their assets?
$ZEC has a very good story, with a total supply of 21 million, basically a privacy version of $BTC, and top Silicon Valley KOLs like Naval are rallying behind it. As the leader of privacy coins, ZEC/BTC shows signs of breaking through, and it looks promising in the long term.
$XMR actually has a higher penetration rate in the darknet than ZEC. But the problem is that the chips are too scattered, and mining is CPU-based, so many hackers use their botnet to mine Monero (XMR). After mining, they have no belief; they just mine and sell.
Additionally, ETH is actually half a privacy coin. Privacy protocols like ETH + Railgun can indeed greatly increase the difficulty of on-chain tracking. In 2023, the FBI publicly stated that the North Korean 🇰🇵 hacker group Lazarus used Railgun to handle over $60 million of ETH stolen from the Harmony Bridge.Next week's four major macro variables that the crypto market cannot avoid
There are four things worth closely watching next week, each of which could influence risk appetite in the crypto market.
First is the US-Iran situation. On Monday, the Trump administration will announce new sanctions on Iran. Disruptions to transport through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices up consecutively. Rising geopolitical risks usually first impact safe-haven assets, so Bitcoin may experience amplified short-term volatility.
Second is the Jackson Hole Symposium, where the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller, will make his debut speech on August 28. Market expectations for a rate cut in September have cooled. Waller's statements on inflation targets and interest rate paths will directly determine whether the crypto market continues its risk appetite or shifts to defense.
Third is the July core PCE data, with the market expecting a month-on-month increase of +0.2%. This is the Fed's most important inflation anchor. If the data exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations will be weakened, which is bearish for risk assets including crypto; if below expectations, the opposite applies.
Fourth is Nvidia's earnings report. This week, the Nasdaq has fallen about 2%, the semiconductor sector has dropped over 4%, and whether the AI narrative in tech stocks can continue largely determines if this week's tech stocks and altcoins will continue to recover or test new lows.
On the gold side, spot gold has risen above $4600 this week, aiming for $4700. To some extent, it is also "giving a precautionary signal" for the crypto market—the battle between safe-haven sentiment and rate cut expectations means the two markets share the same source.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $NVDA $XAU $BTC $TRUMP 🚫 This is not alarmism; it feels like a black swan event or a crypto crash is coming in a few days, and the probability is quite high.
Currently, the market foundation is very weak, entirely a game of existing funds. Many price increases are just operators moving coins from one hand to another, buying and selling to themselves to fake trading volume and create false hype. There is no influx of new external capital, no sustained main theme; various sectors pulse in rotation for a one-day rally. Altcoins that surge to the top of the gainers list one day generally plunge deeply the next day. Essentially, this is a cycle of inducing buying and harvesting profits, not even meeting the standards of a small bull market—just a false prosperity created by inflated trading volume within a consolidation range.
You can see this anomaly clearly by looking at the gainers list: the top is the TRUMP meme coin with a 54.68% increase, followed by obscure small coins like ZAMA, MOVE, POL, and then privacy coins like ZEC and DASH. It’s a chaotic mix—political memes, unknown small coins, and established privacy coins all pulsing together with no unified logic.
In a normal, sustained, healthy market, a single main sector leads the rally collectively, with smaller coins in the same sector following suit neatly. But now, the gainers list is a mess of coins with different narratives, reflecting aimless capital sweeping everywhere to create a false sense of excitement. The play is to concentrate funds for a short-term pump, hit the top of the gainers list to attract short-term chasing capital, and then dump the next day.
This scattered pulsing rise has very weak risk resistance. Altcoins themselves have shallow market depth and poor liquidity. Once any trigger occurs (macroeconomic data, sudden regulatory news, stablecoin anomalies, large concentrated sell-offs, chain liquidation of contracts), it easily triggers a cascade of selling and a stampede-like chain reaction of declines. It doesn’t take much bad news; once confidence breaks, everyone rushes to exit, and altcoins will crash with no one to catch the fall, evolving into a widespread crypto disaster.This time, the focus is no longer just on $BTC and $ETH. The latest capital flow data shows that mainstream assets still hold core positions, but altcoin ETFs such as XRP and SOL are also beginning to attract ongoing attention. On August 20, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $606M, while ETH ETFs saw about $221M; Meanwhile, XRP funds saw inflows of about $13M, and SOL funds about $15M. More importantly, multiple listed crypto asset ETFs saw capital inflows that day. The signal this sends is quite interesting: institutions have not abandoned BTC and ETH, but have begun gradually testing higher Beta assets outside their core positions. Moreover, BTC ETFs have seen strong capital inflows recently, with about $517M on August 19 and further rising to $606M on August 20, totaling over $1.1B over two days. If this capital spread continues, the market may gradually shift from BTC → ETH → large-cap altcoins → high-beta narratives into a more obvious rotation phase. What is truly worth watching is not whether altcoins will rise, but when institutional funds will begin shifting from defensive primary assets to more volatile assets. 👀 #BTC79K #ETF资金流 #XRP #SOL #AltcoinSeason #CryptoRotation