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$BTC $ETH People often ask me, if I give you another 10,000 yuan, can you still make it work?
If it's just a small amount of capital, constantly trial and error, giving a few more 10,000 yuan, under my 10x leverage, it's very easy to compound profits.
But what if all the funds are liquidated and only 10,000 yuan is left?
You might fall into a huge sense of loss from gaining and then losing, in an environment of constant self-doubt, not knowing if you still have the courage to stand up again.
Although in recent years I have consistently recovered from 50% drawdowns and maintained asset ATH, I still fear if the market suddenly loses liquidity, how I could make money in a situation with no volatility.
This question leads to some thoughts on how to ensure the chips in hand never get completely lost?
Doing some capital isolation, even buying some property, trying to make your safety cushion thick enough so it’s impossible to lose it all. Yesterday I watched a video by Sister Mao. She also experienced going to zero three times but is now close to entering the A9 million-dollar club. Her interview sounded like hearing a lot of principles but felt like not hearing anything at all. Haha
But if I go back to the kind of life in 2020, under pressure, I wouldn’t know how to start over. So, large capital is conservative, small capital tries high risk, which is the path needed after growing big.Key turning point signal! Treasury Secretary's major dual statements, bond market contradicted, BTC strengthens against the trend 🔥
The most core macro rhythm across the entire network, see through the current market in one sentence!
Latest dual heavy remarks from the U.S. Treasury Secretary:
✅ Middle East cools down: abandoning large-scale military actions, only using economic sanctions to suppress Iran, short-term geopolitical black swan risk relieved!
❌ Bond market contradicted: calling for increased Treasury buybacks, claiming the deficit has peaked, but U.S. Treasury yields directly rebounded and U.S. stocks plunged!
Key truth:
The Treasury's market rescue is only verbal intervention, not a Federal Reserve rate cut, treating symptoms not the root cause, the bond market completely unconvinced!
But the crypto circle shows independent resilience!
BTC surged violently 12% in two days, fundamentally not relying on liquidity, fully benefiting from the policy expectation dividend of the U.S. Clarity Act!
New variable: Japan's inflation rises, subsequent rate hike expectations heat up, global macro still hiding volatility.
⚠️ Current biggest contradiction:
Bond market pressure not relieved, macro concerns remain, the market is fully supported by crypto policy expectations!
Whether it can continue depends only on the September 15 bill vote + U.S. Treasury movement! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $ETH $SOL $DOGE After Micron's market value surpassed $1 trillion, it invested $10 billion to establish a laboratory. The core conflict lies in the risk trade-off between the near- to mid-term massive capital expenditures suppressing cash flow and the long-term AI storage pricing power.
$MU's single-day rise of 3.9% reflects market sentiment rapidly improving under high-profile political and corporate endorsements, with bullish funds concentrating short-term bets on its industry position. However, the annual $1 billion R&D combined with capital expenditure plans of $28 billion for fiscal 2026 and $47 billion for fiscal 2027 will directly alter institutions' discounted free cash flow models.
Currently, the main drivers in the market are ranked as follows: first, the increased risk appetite brought by political and client endorsements; second, the high-profit cycle of storage chips due to supply shortages; third, concerns over capital expenditure eroding cash flow. When capital expenditure jumps from $28 billion to $47 billion, marginal funds will begin to reassess profit sustainability.
The upside scenario triggers if the chip supply-demand tightness lasts longer than expected, and high profit margins can absorb the added Capex pressure. At this point, it is necessary to observe whether the free cash flow yield for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 can remain above the valuation support line; if quarterly results show continued gross margin expansion, bulls will push valuation premiums further.
The downside scenario triggers if the industry cycle peaks causing product average prices to fall, with high fixed asset depreciation and annual new investments amplifying profit elasticity downside risks. If long-term funds sensitive to high Capex begin to withdraw from the position structure, loosening chips will trigger valuation compression and lower trading targets.
For the bullish logic, invalidation signals are a reversal downward in storage chip product average prices and a reduction in the $47 billion capital expenditure plan for fiscal 2027; for the bearish logic, invalidation signals are the early achievement of high gross margin mass production of next-generation advanced packaging products, fully covering cash outflows with excess returns.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the overall risk appetite transmission in the semiconductor sector and long-term institutional position adjustments under massive Capex expectations.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大At the BTC 74939 level, institutional voices alternatingly speaking up can no longer ignite genuine buying pressure; the order book can only be observed through the actions of the most fundamental funds. Spot orders have continuous buy orders supporting between 73600 and 74000, and the perpetual funding rate has quickly returned from negative to positive, indicating that shorts are beginning to cover. Open interest contracts have accumulated above 74600, creating obvious stop-loss liquidity. Under this structure, as long as the pullback does not break 73600, the bulls control the rhythm. Once it reclaims 75200, the stop-losses of shorts above will be triggered collectively, causing a short squeeze. Just turned the car into an old neighborhood without an elevator; when the client got off, I glanced at the transaction details—there were indeed active taker orders around 74200, not fake limit orders. In terms of operation, do not chase highs; wait for a pullback to the 74200 to 74600 range to lightly buy long positions, with a stop-loss defense at 73580. If it breaks below, it means the buying pressure is fake and you must exit. The first take-profit target above is 75600, the second take-profit target is 76800, with a sufficient risk-reward ratio. If it falls below 73600 with volume, the rebound logic is directly invalidated; do not reverse positions, wait for the next accumulation zone.
$BTC
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
@OKX星球 After BTC surged, altcoins started telling their own stories.
PONS up 50% in one day (Robinhood Chain launched for a month with trading volume exceeding 2.5 billion, repurchasing and burning 28% of circulation); TRUMP meme +25%; Hyperliquid's HYPE +19%; SOL also +11%.
This kind of "platform tokens + meme + independent catalysts" rising together hasn't been seen since the end of last year.
But don't get carried away. Those who shouted "altcoin season" every time altcoins rose were trapped last year. Watching if the trading volume can sustain is more important than the price increase.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 8.21 BTC trading idea: Buy around 2330-2350, stop loss at 2300, first target 2400, second target 2450
ETH current price 2347, after yesterday's surge, the price is consolidating strongly at a high level with no obvious selling pressure release. Short-term moving averages are diverging upwards; as long as the pullback does not break 2330, the bullish trend continues. In this structure, pullbacks are buying opportunities.
Don't fear the highs. In a strong market, the less willing you are to buy, the more it rises; the longer you wait for a pullback, the less likely it will come. As long as the structure holds, following the trend to go long is much safer than trying to guess the top against the trend.
Short-term focus:
Support below: 2330-2320
Stop loss: 2300
First target above: 2400
Second target: 2450
In terms of operation, enter long positions in batches within the 2330-2350 range, with a unified stop loss at 2300. Reduce positions to protect profits when the first target 2400 is reached, and hold the remaining positions aiming for 2450. Do not go all in at once; enter in batches, control risk well, and leave the rest to the trend.
Once the trend forms, it will not end easily. Follow the trend, don't fight the market #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $ETH Maya Protocol experienced a rare combo attack on August 18. The attacker did not crack the private key. A single defect is not enough to directly take away the asset. A transaction containing 23 messages connected 6 individually limited issues. The key to the attack chain is that the protocol misjudges a completed transfer as theft. According to the original security design, the system penalizes relevant nodes and compensates affected liquidity pools with CACAO. The problem is that this compensation does not set an upper limit based on pool depth. A pool with very few LINK left, so it was recorded in the book as about 49.45 million CACAO. More seriously, the protocol first modifies the pool's book balance, then attempts to transfer the corresponding assets from the reserve module. The real transfer failed due to insufficient balance, but previous status updates were not rolled back, and errors were only recorded and resumed. As a result, a balance appeared on the chain without real asset backing. The attacker then adds a small amount of assets to this nearly empty pool, acquiring almost the entire pool share, then withdraws the CACAO from the account and exchanges it for real assets. What is truly lost here is not a single price formula, but two fundamental invariants: compensation cannot exceed verifiable losses; Bookkeeping and actual transfers must either succeed or fail simultaneously. Such incidents also explain why "code audited" does not necessarily mean the attack path has been overwritten. Looking at each issue individually may not be enough to cause losses; However, bulk messages, exception order,$BTC pulled from 68000 to 75000, the fundamental reason is not technical, but liquidity.
The U.S. Treasury announced an increase in long-term Treasury repurchases, raising the single operation limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
What does this mean? There is more money in the market, yields have dropped, and risk assets have risen.
BTC and the S&P 500 have a negative correlation of -72%, indicating this rally is macro-driven and decoupled from the stock market.
I opened a short at 72500, with a stop loss at 75000, currently at an unrealized loss.
Losing 200,000 U and recovering, understanding the fundamental reason prevents being led by the market.
No holding without a position, always set stop loss, admit mistakes when wrong, hold when right.
If 75000 can't be broken, hold the short; if 75000 is surpassed, stop loss and accept the loss.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ C加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？Bitcoin breaks through $75,000, crossing above the 200-day moving average for the first time in nine months. This rally has shattered the market's short-term bearish expectations and directly changed the assessment of the breakeven cycle for BTC holders.
1) First, look at the price reaction
2) The weight of three pieces of news
First, CoinDesk reported Bitcoin breaking $75,000, with analysts saying 'the bear market is in pain,' reflecting a shift in market sentiment from defense to offense; second, Strategy's unrealized losses on holdings narrowed to $685 million, and if the price rises another $800, it will break even, indicating increased sensitivity of large funds to price changes; third, BTC crossing above the 200-day moving average is a key technical milestone, not seen in the past nine months, suggesting the trend may be entering a new phase.
Supporting factors include BTC crossing above the 200-day moving average, forming a technical trend anchor, while institutions like Strategy recovering their positions, indicating some large funds have shifted from pessimism to a wait-and-see stance. The pressure lies in the US Treasury expanding bond buybacks; if subsequent policies turn tighter, it may weaken liquidity support for risk assets, especially potentially suppressing high-volatility assets like ETH.
Next, watch the follow-up actions of the US Treasury's bond buyback plan and whether institutions like Strategy gradually adjust their positions after the price stabilizes. If the price continues to hold above $75,000, one can observe changes in their holding structure, but it needs to be verified whether this is accompanied by real capital inflows.
This is for informational and market scenario analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.$BTC #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue?
$BTC surged to 72,000, up 11.8% in 24 hours. It had been consolidating between 64,000-65,000 for the past two months, then a big bullish candle pierced through.
Shorts were crushed. Hitting 72,000 triggered $3.49 billion in liquidations, with shorts accounting for $2.92 billion; over $3.1 billion in short liquidations occurred within two days. After two months of sideways movement, short positions had accumulated heavily, and the breakout triggered a cascade of liquidations, with buying further pushing the price up.
Three catalysts ignited simultaneously:
US Treasury repo size doubled, long bond yields declined, reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC. The White House held an emergency meeting where Trump gathered CEOs from Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, and others, urging the passage of crypto legislation by year-end; the market interpreted this as increased regulatory certainty. ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $1 billion for three consecutive days, with $517 million inflow on August 19 alone, the highest since May 4; these are real cash buy orders.
$ETH rose over 19%, SOL over 13%, HYPE over 26%. Crypto concept stocks also strengthened, with MSTR up over 9% pre-market.
The key to holding above 72,000 lies in whether spot trading volume can keep up. Leverage-driven rallies require buy-side support; if spot volume is insufficient, profit-taking at high levels and renewed leverage buildup will amplify the correction. On Polymarket, the probability of reaching 75,000 by the end of this month is only 6%. The Treasury just "rescued" perfect debt for one day, and the 30Y is back to 5.26%, so has the US really started YCC? #USStock #AI #Semiconductors 𝗔𝗜 demand hasn't collapsed; the market is shifting from "buying AI" to "buying certainty." Last night, US stocks continued to adjust. Dow -1.32%, S&P 500 -0.87%, Nasdaq -1.00%. But the semiconductor sector is showing a completely different trend: $MRVL +5.8%
$MU +3.97%
$AVGO +0.43%
$NVDA slightly down. The current market is actually very interesting. Indices are trading US Treasuries and oil prices, but capital is starting to look for companies with real orders and cash flow within AI. ① The most important positive for $MU is not just the 4% rise, but that SK Hynix and Samsung are starting to return AI-generated profits to shareholders. SK Hynix announced a buyback and cancellation of 40 trillion KRW in stock, about $28.7 billion, while raising its shareholder return policy to over 50% of free cash flow. The market has long worried: HBM makes a lot of money → memory manufacturers expand production crazily → eventually turning back into a DRAM price war. But now Hynix is directly returning large amounts of cash to shareholders. This at least indicates one thing: 𝗔𝗜 storage-driven cash flow is strong enough to support large-scale shareholder returns. Samsung is also preparing to increase shareholder returns. So my current judgment on MU is even more positive than a few days ago. What’s really worth watching is no longer just whether HBM prices can stillBTC broke out. What is truly worth discussing is not how much it has risen, but what has actually changed this round. As of the morning of August 21, BTC has already stood above around $72,000, and has surged from around $64K in recent days, with a cumulative gain of over 10%. More importantly, this time it directly broke through the multi-week-long $62K–$66.9K range. This really changed the logic of the market. Previously: $62K–66K oscillation → sold off every rally → bulls dared not chase → bears kept increasing their positions Now: breaking $66K → breaking $70K → short stop loss → large short positions forced liquidation → forced to buy back BTC → price continued to rise → ETH, SOL and others started to follow the rally In this rally, short squeeze is a very important accelerator. In this past market cycle, short liquidations reached billions of dollars. But if it's just a short squeeze, I actually won't get particularly excited. What really interests me is that spot funds are starting to come back. On August 19, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $517 million, while the ETH ETF also recorded a net inflow of about $189 million. In other words, this time the contract market is not just playing on its own. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury has expanded the scale of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases, changing market expectations for bond liquidity and the dollar environment, providing new catalysts for the hard asset narrative of BTC. So now the most important link has become: macro liquidityThe U.S. is repurchasing Treasury bonds, and $BTC is already eyeing 180k?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the Treasury will regularly repurchase long-term Treasuries, with the scale possibly exceeding the previously announced $4 billion.
Macro strategist Mark Connors believes that if repurchases further expand to $10 billion to $30 billion per month, combined with relaxed bank bond-holding restrictions, pressure on long-term yields could ease, and BTC might challenge $180,000 sooner.
He thinks high-yield U.S. Treasuries will divert risk capital; repurchases pushing bond prices up and yields down could improve market liquidity.
Previously, a large number of short positions clustered around $72,000; after BTC rose above this level, the covering of shorts also amplified the rally.
However, the issue here is that Treasury repurchases do not equal direct money printing, and the initial scale of $4 billion is insufficient alone to support a Bitcoin bull market.
What really matters is whether repurchases continue to expand, whether the 10-year yield falls back, and whether U.S. dollar liquidity noticeably improves.
The $180,000 target is expected only after multiple conditions are met simultaneously; in the short term, attention should be paid to whether the CLARITY Act can make progress before September 15, otherwise cooling policy expectations may first lead to a pullback.
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 $BTC 8.21 Morning Big Cake:
Big Cake has hit a new high again! It went straight up to 75025, leaving the bears with swollen faces!
Those who previously shouted that it would fall below 70,000 are probably still confused now. This trend is clearly bullish, with all moving averages supporting the upward move, and momentum is strong. Stop stubbornly holding short positions!
The main strategy is simple: buy on dips! If it falls to 738-740 and stabilizes, get in immediately. The first target is the previous high at 750; if broken, continue aiming for 755-758, with a stop loss just below 735.
Those wanting to short can only lightly test the top. If it surges to 750-752 and stalls, play a small position to earn from the pullback and then exit. Don’t really think it can reverse; going against the trend only hurts yourself.
Remember: holding above 752 means accelerating the rally; breaking below 738 counts as a pullback. Follow the trend to profit, go against it and get hit! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #South Korea KOSPI closes up 5.9% driven by chip buybacks South Korean stock market surged 5.9% in one day, not because the economy suddenly took off, but because chip giants started returning AI earnings to shareholders.
KOSPI closed today at 6852.58 points, up 5.89% in a single day.
There are only two real engines:
SK Hynix +12.73%
Samsung Electronics +9.49%
Why such a sudden surge?
SK Hynix announced:
They will spend 40 trillion KRW, about $28.6 billion, to repurchase and cancel shares.
They also promised to return at least 50% of free cash flow to shareholders from 2025 to 2027.
Immediately after, the market also reported:
Samsung may launch a shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW, about $71.8 billion.
In one sentence:
AI chip companies used to tell the market "I can still make a lot of money," now it’s directly "I’m using the money I earned to buy back my own stock."
These two moves are on a completely different scale.
Foreign investors net bought about 1.7 trillion KRW of Korean stocks that day, combined with the decline in US long-term bond yields, reigniting risk appetite.
But don’t forget:
Samsung’s 100 trillion plan is currently just media reports; the company has not officially confirmed it.
So what I’m more focused on is not that KOSPI rose 5.9% today.
But a bigger change:
In the next phase of the AI market, the market may no longer just look at "who grows fastest," but start to look at "who can really turn AI profits into cash and return it to shareholders." 8月19日晚，美国财政部突然宣布，将美债的流动性回购规模，从每次最多20亿美元提高到至少40亿美元。消息出来后，市场迅速把它理解成财政部在给长期美债托底，30年期美债收益率从高位明显回落，美元也同步走弱。 这也直接带动了风险资产反弹，比特币一度突破7万美元，以太坊也明显走强。 但仅仅过了一天，市场又变了。 昨天美债收益率又开始重新上行，30年期收益率一度回到5.24%左右，美股则出现明显回撤。标普500下跌0.9%，纳指下跌1%，把前天的涨幅直接抹去。 看起来市场并没有因一时的利好，而接受债务会改善的预期，甚至美财长表示回购规模可能翻倍，也无济于事。 需要明确，财政部的回购计划解决的是流动性问题，但并没有解决债务和财政赤字的问题。 美国政府债务已超过40万亿美元，长期国债收益率之所以持续处在高位，并不只是因为市场缺流动性，更重要的是投资者正在要求更高的期限溢价。 简单说，财政部可以买回一些流动性较差的老债，改善市场交易，但它无法靠回购直接消除巨额财政赤字，也无法阻止未来继续发行大量国债。 所以市场第一天看到的是财政部出手了，第二天看到的却是问题依然还在。 连摩根大通都警告，如果市场认为Let's talk about SUI today, a public chain that is becoming increasingly controversial. Some say it will become the next star asset, while others feel its price increase has already been overextended. My view is that what truly determines SUI's value is not the short-term price, but the speed of ecosystem growth. Recently, more and more projects are choosing to deploy on the SUI ecosystem, and on-chain activity and capital flow remain worth watching. Many people always think about buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest, but end up missing the trend time and again. The hardest thing in a bull market is not picking coins, but holding on; in a volatile market, the hardest thing is not judging direction, but controlling position size. I won't change my long-term plan based on daily price fluctuations; I focus more on whether capital continues to flow in and whether the ecosystem continues to develop. If the overall market warms up later, SUI still has a chance to become an important target for capital rotation. Of course, every coin carries risk, and position management is always more important than emotions. Do you think SUI will be the first to break out this round, or will it continue to consolidate and build strength? Feel free to share your views in the comments. #SUI #PublicChainEcosystem #OuyiPlanet #Cryptocurrency #CryptoCommunityObservation BTC hasn't surged dramatically, so why are veteran players becoming increasingly calm? Many people think a bull market means a daily 10% jump, but in reality, major moves often happen amid sideways trading where chips are exchanged. Recently, BTC has been consolidating at high levels; many have been liquidated, but long-term holders are quietly adding to their positions. The more anxious the market sentiment, the more it indicates that funds are reshuffling. Historically, every major rally was preceded by a phase that made people doubt the bull market was still alive. Currently, on-chain funds remain active, and institutional holdings haven't seen large-scale withdrawals, which is a key reason many continue to be bullish on the market. My view is: don't chase the rally, don't panic, and don't change your long-term plan based on daily price swings. If BTC breaks through key resistance again, a new trend might attract more off-exchange capital; if it continues to consolidate, that will be an opportunity for the patient. Making money in crypto often depends less on prediction skills and more on execution and time. Do you think this BTC cycle will break new highs first, or will it continue to consolidate and shake out weak hands? #BTC #Bitcoin #OuyiPlanet #Cryptocurrency #BullMarketWatch 08.19 The whale shorting $BTC with $85.58 million is stubbornly taking hits 🙉
After being liquidated 240 BTC with a loss of $1.112 million yesterday afternoon, this morning they proactively reduced their position by 350 BTC, taking a loss of $2.581 million, lowering the margin usage rate to 101%; currently, nearly half of the 40x short position remains (610.01 BTC), valued at $45.58 million, with an unrealized loss of $4.783 million
Not everyone is as disciplined as the big target guy, who stops losses when they say so...
Portal 👉 0x66f889094739dbb7d20aa60f645acd88feba75a9$BTC On the larger time frame, there will still be a wave of pullback, but future pullbacks are unlikely to fall below 60k. This rally has turned the downtrend into a sideways consolidation.Sisters! I woke up to find my account green again (the kind of green that means making money) 💚
BTC current price 74600, +6% in 24 hours, an 11% surge in two days. The big coin that was lying flat and playing dead at 63000 just a couple of days ago shot straight up above 74000. $3 billion worth of shorts wiped out overnight, 190,000 liquidations, the largest single one at $48.8 million — short sellers, line up on the rooftop.
Why this surge? Three fires:
1. Trump’s White House summoned Coinbase and Kraken bigwigs for a meeting, pressuring Congress to pass the CLARITY Act by year-end;
2. The US Treasury doubled its long bond buybacks, yields plunged, flooding the market with liquidity, benefiting risk assets;
3. Shorts were too crowded, a little spark caused a chain reaction of stampedes.
Standard Chartered has already called for $100,000 by year-end. But note: the Senate procedural vote on September 15 is a critical juncture, and there’s still a 35% chance of a rate hike at the September FOMC, so don’t get too carried away.
Key levels: resistance at 75000 (new battleground for bulls and bears); support at 70000 and 68600 (if these hold on pullbacks, it’s a sign of strength).
In short: after a month of consolidation, the direction is finally clear. A pullback is a buying opportunity—I’ve already converted my bubble tea money into spot 🧋XRP Observation on August 21｜Understanding Account Reserves After the Heat Rises
Today, both the discussion volume and spot trading of XRP have heated up. More important than price fluctuations is understanding why the XRP Ledger simultaneously designs transaction costs and account reserves: the former is not paid to any validator but is permanently destroyed when the transaction enters the validated ledger, used to increase the cost of spam requests and network attacks.
Official documentation shows that the base cost for ordinary transactions is usually 10 drops, which dynamically increases when network load rises. Accounts must maintain a base reserve, and each object occupying ledger space held increases the owner reserve. These parameters can be adjusted by validators through a fee voting mechanism and are not permanently fixed.
Low cost and fast confirmation can reduce payment friction, but this does not mean usage will automatically grow, nor does it mean token valuation will rise with protocol parameters. Future focus should be on real settlement demand, ledger activity, liquidity, and regulatory changes.
It is also important to distinguish the relationship between XRP and its underlying ledger: technical availability can improve independently, but market price will still be influenced by supply, demand, and sentiment.
$XRP #XRP
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. $BTC has recently surged past the $72,000 mark with gains close to 15%, reaching a high near the $74,000 range, marking a new peak in over two months.
The rise is not purely driven by sentiment. The U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion per operation, directly easing bond yield pressures and injecting liquidity into risk assets.
The Trump administration signaled support for clearer crypto regulation (Clarity Act), combined with White House-industry dialogues, further boosting market confidence.
Technically, BTC successfully broke out of the six-week consolidation range between $62,000 and $66,900, triggering approximately $3 billion in short liquidations, forming a classic short squeeze spiral.
On-chain data shows the short-term holder cost basis (around $68,500) has been reclaimed, and the 200-day moving average has been surpassed, shifting market structure from consolidation to a bullish recovery.
The next key resistance is concentrated near $75,800 at the "real market average"—a level representing the average cost of active investors.
If this level is effectively broken and held, it could open the door to higher price ranges. Some analyses suggest that if momentum continues, targets of $80,000 or even higher may come into view.
Currently, indicators like RSI have entered overbought territory, increasing short-term profit-taking pressure; after the short squeeze rally, if spot buying and ETF inflows fail to sustain, prices may enter a phase of high volatility consolidation. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ The core conclusion of today's market is: risk appetite has weakened again, but there is a very clear divergence between BTC and the US stock market. Overnight, the three major US stock indices collectively fell, with the Dow dropping over 1%. The rate relief brought by the US Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repos lasted only a short time, and US Treasury yields rebounded. Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Iran have further escalated, Brent crude oil has risen close to $94, and inflation pressure has once again become the core contradiction in the market. In contrast, BTC continues to strengthen significantly, reaching around $73,300 at the time of writing. In the short term, the crypto market is showing clear independence, outperforming traditional risk assets.
1. What happened overnight?
1. US Treasury yields rebounded, and the "rate relief" from Treasury intervention quickly faded
Facts:
Overnight, US stocks experienced a significant correction again.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.32%, closing at 52,759.21 points; the S&P 500 dropped 0.87%, closing at 7,641.16 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell about 1.00%, closing at 26,067.17 points.
Just the day before, the US Treasury announced it would increase the single repo size for 10-30 year long-term bonds to at least $4 billion, which once pushed long-term US Treasury yields significantly lower.
But yesterday, the bond market quickly came under pressure again.
The 10-year US Treasury yield returned to around 4.70%, and the 30-year yield rose again to about 5.24%.
Market reaction:
Tech stocks, which had rebounded due to the decline in long-term rates, came under pressure again.#FinancialReportObserver: Pop Mart's Growth Shifts Gears, Can Multiple IPs Take Over?
Pop Mart just released its half-year report, here are some interesting points.
Revenue reached 17.17 billion, up 23.8% year-on-year. Sounds decent? But last year's full-year growth was 184%, so this shift feels like suddenly slamming the brakes. Adjusted net profit was 5.16 billion, with growth only 9.5%, revenue up but profit not increasing. Wang Ning openly admitted in the conference call — this year’s 20% growth target is very likely to be missed. When the boss says this, you can judge for yourself.
The IPs are noteworthy. THE MONSTERS remains the leader at 4.45 billion, but down 7.5% year-on-year. Last year, when LABUBU was hottest, Wang Ning proactively "put out the fire," halting new products and controlling licensing; this year the pace continues to slow. The successor, Star People, hit 2.65 billion in half a year, with a staggering 580% growth. CRYBABY, DIMOO, SKULLPANDA, and Little Wild all surpassed 1 billion; six IPs broke 1 billion, eleven exceeded 100 million, the matrix is taking shape.
But MOLLY dropped 33%, down to only 900 million, a 20-year-old IP clearly declining. In the trendy toy industry, there is no forever top star.
Overseas revenue is under pressure, gross margin slightly down from 70.3% to 69.7%. They responded by announcing a 2 to 5 billion buyback, giving a reassuring signal.
Judgment: The growth shift is a fact, and the multi-IP relay is initially working. Whether Star People can sustain and where the next hit will come from are key going forward. Whether LABUBU’s cooldown is justified will be clear in half a year. $DOGE On the evening of August 19, the U.S. Treasury suddenly announced it would increase the liquidity buyback of U.S. Treasuries from a maximum of $2 billion each to at least $4 billion. After the news broke, the market quickly interpreted it as the Treasury Department providing support for long-term US Treasuries, with the 30-year Treasury yield clearly retreating from its highs and the US dollar weakening in tandem. This directly triggered a rebound in risk assets, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $70,000 and Ethereum clearly strengthening. $ETH But just one day later, the market changed again. Yesterday, US Treasury yields started climbing again, with the 30-year yield briefly returning to around 5.24%, while US stocks experienced a clear pullback. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1%, erasing the gains from the previous day. It seems the market has not accepted expectations of debt improvement due to temporary positive factors; even the U.S. Treasury Secretary's indication that the buyback scale might double is ineffective. It should be made clear that the Treasury's buyback plan addresses liquidity issues but does not address debt and fiscal deficits. U.S. government debt has exceeded $40 trillion, and the persistently high long-term Treasury yields are not just due to lack of liquidity in the market, but more importantly, because investors are demanding higher term premiums. Simply put, the Treasury can buy back some old, less liquid debt to improve market transactions, but it cannot directly eliminate the huge fiscal deficit through buybacks, nor can it prevent the continued issuance of large amounts of government bonds in the future. So on the first day, the market saw the Ministry of Finance intervene, but on the second day, the problem persisted. Even JPMorgan Chase warned about expansion$DOGE is up 11.56% today, spiking from $0.07243 to a high of $0.08351. On the surface, it looks like the start of a fresh rally. But the derivatives data tells a more cautious story. Open interest only rose 5.38% during the same period, while price jumped 11.56%. That means the move wasn’t driven by new leveraged positions, but rather by spot buying and short covering. In other words, the fuel here is not fresh speculative capital. The long/short account ratio confirms this. It dropped from 4.25On August 18, Citi released Custody+, integrating traditional securities custody, real-time asset services, and digital asset capabilities into a single institutional platform. First, it's important to clarify the stage: Custody+ has already been released, but native crypto asset custody has not yet fully launched on that day. Citi previously stated in its 2026 Investor Day materials that it would launch native crypto asset custody; According to An Block's independent report on this announcement, the service is expected to launch later this year, with the first asset being Bitcoin and aimed at institutional clients. This is not the same as "banks buying BTC for all users." Direct custody means that clients hold their native BTC equity, with custodians responsible for keys, address management, transaction authorization, accounting, and compliance processes; ETFs are fund shares, and investors usually cannot directly withdraw the corresponding BTC. Both methods provide price exposure, but the asset's legal structure, fees, transaction times, and transferability differ. There are three main impacts on the market. First, institutions can manage both traditional assets and BTC within familiar custody reports, permissions, and audit frameworks, reducing internal system integration costs. Second, the entry of large banks may raise service standards for insurance, auditing, hot and cold wallets, and multi-party approvals. Third, the new compliance entry may expand the range of institutions that can allocate BTC, but it will not automatically generate equal buys: whether customers deposit, how much to buy, and whether they only transfer into existing positions all depend on actual data. The risks cannot be overshadowed by the term "bank-grade." BTC is not a bank deposit and cannot be assumed to be accepted based on thisBTC broke through 69000, reaching an intraday high of 69888, just a breath away from 70000. Spot markets strengthened in sync, with ETH hitting a high of 2119, surging over 8% at one point.
Why the surge?
The direct trigger was the US Treasury's announcement to expand the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to plunge from the 19-year high of 5.33% to 5.19%. This long-term interest rate, which had been the tightest restraint on BTC, has loosened.
The short squeeze chain reaction amplified the gains. A large number of high-leverage short positions were stacked above 63000; once the price broke this key level, it triggered a cascade of liquidations, fueling accelerated upward momentum. Continuous net inflows into ETFs also followed, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing over $200 million inflow in a single day.
Current outlook
There is a large amount of profit-taking near 69000, so short-term consolidation is needed. The first support for a pullback is between 65800 and 66000; if the price holds this area, the next target is 71000 to 72000. If it falls below 65000, this short squeeze structure may be broken.
Trading strategy
Chasing highs is no longer cost-effective. Wait for a pullback to stabilize between 65800 and 66000 before considering long positions, with stop-loss set below 65000. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm has. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Dazhuang Study Notes｜When looking at BTC, you can't just look at a single candlestick
Today, I extended the view of BTC to three timeframes:
1️⃣ One week
Around August 15, about $63,000, now about $74,000, up nearly 18%. This round feels more like a resonance of "capital inflow + macro/policy catalysts + short squeeze after breakout."
2️⃣ Half a year
On February 21, about $68,000, touched above $82,000 in May, dropped to around $58,600 at the end of June, now back to $74,000. A net increase of about 9% over half a year, but the process was very volatile, indicating mid-term is still a wide-range oscillation with recovery.
3️⃣ Long term
BTC went from less than $0.1 in 2010 to a historical high of about $126,200 in 2025, then retreated to today. What truly drives it long-term is scarce supply, adoption rate, and global liquidity, not any single piece of news.
So I assign a weighting framework for "trend judgment in the next month":
Price structure 20%｜Macro liquidity 20%｜ETF/spot funds 20%｜Exchange net flow 15%｜Volume 10%｜OI+Funding 10%｜Liquidations 3%｜BTC market share 2%.
The first three look at direction, the middle ones verify the authenticity of the rise, and the last ones check if the market is overheated.
What’s truly useful for investors is not guessing tomorrow’s rise or fall, but watching three things:
Is money continuously coming in?
Can the breakout hold?
Is leverage piled up too high?
When data changes, views should change.
$BTC #大壮学习笔记 ETH stands above 2300, can this be considered a bull rebound?
Conclusion: For now, it can only be defined as a strong large-scale rebound, not yet a confirmed bull rebound (trend reversal).
The two main drivers of this rally:
1. Macro catalyst: The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, U.S. Treasury yields declined, rate cut expectations increased, and risk asset valuations rose.
2. Short squeeze: A large number of shorts accumulated at low levels previously, after breaking through, shorts concentrated on closing positions, leverage amplified the gains, combined with ETF capital inflows, resulting in a large bullish candlestick.
The positive factors are real, but a significant portion is driven by leveraged funds, not purely by spot buying entering unilaterally.
To judge a true "bull rebound," three hard conditions must be met, which have not all been fulfilled yet:
1. Price structure: ETH needs to increase volume and firmly hold the key resistance zone at 2500-2600 to digest the previous trapped positions; currently, it has only broken through short-term resistance, and the medium- to long-term moving averages have not yet turned upward.
2. The overall market must not lag: BTC must hold the 68000-69000 range; ETH is a high beta asset and it is difficult to have an independent major bull market; if BTC weakens, ETH’s correction will be larger.
3. Sustained capital validation: ETH spot ETFs must maintain continuous net inflows, the ETH/BTC ratio should steadily rise, and capital should continuously rotate into the Ethereum ecosystem rather than just a one- or two-day pulse inflow. $ETH #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
History is quite ironic; today's rise is exactly the same as at the end of May.
Market page: After the Q1 report on May 27, $XIAOMI hit a new low for the year at 28.4, with a single-day market cap shrinkage of 35.1 billion; at that time, profits were just under pressure. Today's Q2 is even worse—adjusted net profit year-on-year down 42.6%, a much larger decline than then, yet the stock price rose 5.12%.
This kind of "worse earnings report but stock rises" relies on the anesthesia of sequential improvement and the automotive story. Year-on-year is the truth; the deeper the divergence, the harder the fall later.
My short position hurts today, but the logic hasn't broken, so I won't exit.
$XIAOMI Dazhuang Study Diary｜Why has BTC suddenly strengthened these past two days?
A few days ago, BTC was mostly consolidating, but in the last two days, the price quickly broke out. After reviewing, I found that BTC’s rise wasn’t driven by a single positive factor, but by several forces combined:
1️⃣ ETF funds flowing back
Last week there was net outflow, but recently it clearly turned into net inflow, with real money re-entering the market.
2️⃣ Macro environment warming up
Economic data was weak, long-term interest rates fell, and market liquidity improved, encouraging trading again.
3️⃣ Price truly breaking out
BTC broke through weeks of consolidation, shifting the trend from "grinding" to "strong."
4️⃣ Short squeeze accelerating the rise
After the breakout, many shorts were forced to cover, effectively buying BTC and amplifying the price increase.
My current framework for BTC is getting clearer:
Price shows direction, ETF shows real money, OI/Funding shows leverage, liquidations show acceleration, macro shows liquidity.
BTC has clearly turned stronger now, but the recent rise is very fast.
Going forward, I’m focusing on two things:
Whether the breakout can hold, and whether ETF inflows can continue.
When data changes, views should change.
Analysis isn’t about betting on direction, but continuously updating judgments based on evidence.
$BTC #DazhuangStudyNotes $BTC Saylor sold at 63957, I shorted at 63200, BTC rose to 74000 — we were both exactly wrong
Saylor was mocked by the entire network today.
The guy who shouted "never sell" for three years, the boss of the company holding the most BTC globally. Last week he cut losses, selling 1638 coins at 63957, cost 75419, selling at a 15% loss.
Today BTC is 74000.
After he sold, the coin took off, up 15% in two days. The whole network laughed at him for "selling low at 60k" and called him a "contrarian indicator." I looked at the memes three times and laughed until crowing.
Then I couldn’t laugh anymore.
Because I was doing the exact same thing as Saylor. He sold at 63957, I shorted at 63200. He cut at 64000, I was stopped out at 63300. Same position, same belief — both thought BTC had topped out.
But one bullish candle killed the world’s biggest long and the smallest short.
The difference is: he was wrong once and lost face, smashing his "never sell" brand. I was wrong once and lost my underwear, the real money in my 400U account.
Last week I wrote four or five bearish articles: ETF withdrawals, whales running, funding rates negative to the floor — every point was true. Saylor thought the same, so he sold.
Then Trump held a meeting, SEC issued new rules, Treasury doubled buybacks. These three things combined, one bullish candle buried us both.
But I’m not here to cry today. I’m here to remind the bulls:
The short squeeze is over.
$3 billion in shorts have been liquidated, but the open interest on perpetual contracts hasn’t bounced back. In plain English — this wave was all forced liquidations, not new money entering. Shorts are dead, fuel is burned, the elevator is waiting for the next batch.
ETF players’ average cost is 82465. BlackRock at 82,206, Fidelity at 73,447. At 74000 BTC, half are still underwater. 74000 isn’t their break-even, it’s their wound.
The 200-day moving average is at 69000, yesterday a wick dipped below and then pulled back.
Chasing longs at 73000-74000 has a poor risk-reward ratio. Either wait for a pullback to 69000-70000, or wait for open interest to rise — that would mean new money is really coming in. Charging in now, you’re just the next batch of fuel.
Last week I shorted at 63200 and got stopped out. This week I’m neither shorting nor chasing. I can’t afford to chase 74000 with 400U.
I just want to ask: those who were bearish last week and got proven wrong, check in in the comments, let’s see how many are on the same page as me and Saylor. Those who bottomed at 62000 and held, you’re my dad. Those who just chased at 74000, give a shout, I want to see what this batch of fuel looks like. $BTC $ETH #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ $HYPE $HYPE welcomes major policy benefits, the White House signals Hyperliquid's compliant entry into the US market 🚨
Today's biggest market narrative comes from the White House's closed-door crypto meeting, where Trump publicly stated: The CFTC chairman is fully pushing for Hyperliquid to enter the US market through a fully compliant and legal path. After the news broke, $HYPE surged violently intraday, with a peak increase of over 23%, becoming the brightest sub-sector hotspot on the board.
✅ Key highlights of this benefit
1. Major breakthrough in regulation
Hyperliquid is a leading on-chain perpetual contract platform, currently banned for US users, with many local users trading in a gray area via VPN. Now, with high-level White House endorsement, it represents the first acceptance intention from the top US authorities for DeFi derivatives, marking an industry milestone once realized.
2. Capital market linkage
The listed holding vehicle PURR also surged 31% intraday; in contrast, traditional futures exchanges CME and Cboe fell under pressure, as the market begins to price in the competitive impact of on-chain derivatives on traditional finance.
3. Solid platform fundamentals
Hyperliquid has its own L1 public chain, an on-chain order book non-custodial perpetual contract, with annual profits exceeding $900 million last year; 97% of platform revenue is used to buy back HYPE tokens, maintaining a deflationary flywheel, with business fundamentals providing solid backing.
⚠️ Important risk warnings
1. High-level statements ≠ license obtained; this only initiates the advancement process. There is still a long way to go with legislative battles, KYC, and regulatory framework negotiations. Whether the CLARITY Act passes the Senate is the biggest uncertainty, with risk of expectations not being met.
2. This rally is driven by news expectations; benefit realization or approval delays can easily trigger concentrated profit-taking and pullbacks.
3. Even if compliant entry into the US is achieved, the original protocol architecture will likely be modified and may not fully retain all functions of the current offshore version. The FOMC meeting minutes have been released, with a 9 to 3 vote to maintain the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%. Three hawks—Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari—were determined to raise rates by 25 basis points, but the majority chose to hold steady. Some might interpret this as the Fed backing down, but if you read the minutes carefully, you'll find a harsher statement hidden in the wording: if inflation stalls, tightening could return at any time. This is very precise. The softened CPI and employment data have temporarily given the Fed a way out, with CME's probability of maintaining rates in September jumping directly to 67%. But the market is not out of the woods yet. Where is the risk? The minutes highlight three things: AI infrastructure financing, stock valuations, and U.S. Treasury volatility. Taken together, these three basically say one thing—the current risk asset pricing is based on the assumption that "interest rates will not go higher." But once inflation data warms up again, or the AI narrative falters, this assumption will be overturned. Just look at the current market correlations to understand. On the U.S. stock side, Google has invested $4 billion in Anthropic, and the AI arms race is still burning money; tokens like $xNFLX are deeply tied to U.S. stock assets, so any slight disturbance in the AI narrative causes wild swings. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has had its best single month since Q4 2024, and IBIT's funds even briefly reversed Deribit, but don't forget, this rally is driven by liquidity expectations, not real profits BTC surged from 64,000 to 73,000 in one bullish candle, ETH pushed past 2340+, with a 24h total liquidation of 3.3 billion USD across the network, shorts accounting for 3.06 billion, making up 92% of liquidations. Hyperliquid saw a single liquidation of 48.8 million USD, and 170,000 people were liquidated.
Don't be fooled by the “160 billion entering the market” narrative — this move is an epic short squeeze triggered by the Ministry of Finance's extended bond repurchase and White House summit expectations. The majority of the buying is forced short covering, not real spot money entering positions.
Chasing the highs now means catching the tail end of short covering. If 73,000 doesn't hold, it’s a ticket for the 64,000 cut-loss crowd to exit in reverse; a real breakout requires volume above 75,000 plus continuous ETF inflows to be valid. If you're itching to trade, wait for a pullback to 70,000 to see if support holds — that's more dignified than chasing this bullish candle.The entity that took profit at the $4400 high point of $ETH has added 3385.82 more tokens!
Since yesterday, a total of 16699.32 ETH has been purchased through Cowswap, with a total value exceeding 35.84 million USD, an average cost of $2146.42, and a current unrealized profit of 3.335 million USD.
The funds come from a mixer; if it's a hacker address, then they are also a top trader among hackers 😂A Morgan Stanley report states that China's international balance of payments structure has shifted to a "mirror" model, with a current account surplus reaching as high as $735 billion in 2025. However, unlike before, this surplus has not translated into an increase in official foreign exchange reserves but has been offset by a deficit of about $782 billion under the non-reserve financial account. This means that the huge foreign exchange income generated by goods trade is being reallocated to overseas assets through channels such as private sector securities investments (about $426 billion) and other investments (about $317 billion).
This year's rapid tightening of a series of outbound investment policies, hitting Futu and Qiangqiao, new outbound investment regulations, and offshore trust taxation all point to the fact that our management is preparing to initiate the realization of domestic value.
In past overseas downturns, Sino-US relations had not deteriorated to the current hostile state. In 2008, the idea that saving the US was saving oneself prevailed; in this international political environment where cooperation outweighed hostility, US authorities tended to adopt a one-time rapid clearing approach to the economic crisis, allowing the economy to drop to freezing point in a short time.
Now that China and the US are in a hostile state, allowing the economy to collapse uncontrollably on either side would only create opportunities for the opponent. Therefore, neither China nor the US will experience uncontrolled economic collapses like those in 2008 or 2015. Instead, a controlled clearing similar to the distorted operations by Paulson will take place. Under such circumstances, the economic gap between domestic and overseas will not be too large, so our management needs to build higher economic barriers to prevent the outflow of domestic value. The Treasury's debt market rescue lasted only one day: the 30-year US Treasury yield surged back to 5.25%
The day before yesterday, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond briefly hit 5.34%, the highest level since 2007. The Treasury quickly intervened, increasing the liquidity repo scale for long-term bonds from 10 to 30 years from a maximum of $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion.
The market's initial reaction was clear: the 30-year Treasury yield quickly dropped to around 5.19%. But after just one day, the situation reversed.
The latest 30-year Treasury yield has returned to around 5.25%, and the 10-year yield is back to about 4.70%. The increase brought by the Treasury's intervention has basically been given back by the bond market.
The market's concern may not just be "insufficient liquidity," but a deeper issue: the US's debt exceeding $40 trillion, long-term fiscal deficits, inflation, and the continuously increasing bond issuance in the future.
A $4 billion repo can improve market liquidity but cannot make the fiscal deficit disappear out of thin air. Interestingly, Treasury Secretary Bessent has already indicated that the repo scale could be further increased in the future.
So the real question going forward might be: if $4 billion is not enough, what about $8 billion? And if $8 billion still can't contain it?
This kind of operation is actually positive for neutral assets like $BTC
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 semi-annual report. The most noteworthy aspect of this report is not the ¥17.17 billion revenue and 23.8% year-on-year growth, but the profound structural change occurring in the IP matrix — the shift in growth pace of LABUBU and the explosive rise of Star People together form the core narrative of Pop Mart's "growth shift."
1. LABUBU Declines, Star People Takes Over
In 2025, THE MONSTERS family, which includes LABUBU, achieved annual revenue of ¥14.16 billion, a 365.7% year-on-year increase, becoming the first IP in the trendy toy market to surpass ¥10 billion. However, in the first half of 2026, THE MONSTERS revenue was ¥4.45 billion, down 7.5% year-on-year, with its revenue share dropping from 34.7% in the same period last year to 26%.
Filling this gap is Star People. This IP, which launched its first product set only in 2024, reached ¥2.65 billion in revenue in the first half of the year, a 580.6% year-on-year increase, quickly becoming the company's second-largest IP. From ¥390 million in the same period last year to ¥2.65 billion now, Star People's growth rate is phenomenal.
Meanwhile, CRYBABY, DIMOO, SKULLPANDA, and Hirono each generated revenues of ¥1.63 billion, ¥1.62 billion, ¥1.55 billion, and ¥1.01 billion respectively. In the first half, six IPs exceeded ¥1 billion in revenue, and eleven IPs surpassed ¥100 million. The diversification of the IP matrix is reducing the company's reliance on a single blockbuster.
2. Multiple IPs Taking Over, or "One for One"?
The biggest long-term concern in the market about Pop Mart has been the "LABUBU dependency." Now that LABUBU's share has declined and Star People has risen rapidly, this concern has been initially addressed. But the question of whether multiple IPs can take over is far more complex than surface data suggests.
On the positive side: Star People's rapid growth proves that Pop Mart's internal IP incubation mechanism is maturing. From 29 new IPs in 2024 to 57 in 2025, the launch frequency is nearly one per week. This strategy of "throwing dozens of IPs into the market for testing" is moving from quantitative change to qualitative change.
Challenges are also significant: THE MONSTERS revenue of ¥4.45 billion is still about 1.7 times that of Star People. LABUBU's popularity changes still have a crucial impact on the overall picture. Moreover, can Star People's explosive growth continue? Where is the next Star People? There is still a long way to go from "one super IP" to "a group of strong IPs."
3. Overseas Pressure, China Market Leading
Another signal worth noting comes from overseas markets. Overseas revenue in the first half was ¥4.972 billion, down 11.6% year-on-year. Revenue in the Americas fell 16.5%, and Asia-Pacific dropped 9.7%. Pop Mart founder Wang Ning admitted that last year's overseas boom had an element of "luck."
In stark contrast, the Chinese market revenue was ¥12.2 billion, up 47.3% year-on-year. Online channels grew 62.7%, and revenue from the blind box vending machine app surged 83.3%. The strong growth of the domestic base provides ample confidence for the company’s proactive adjustments during this "rest year."
4. Closing Remarks
Wang Ning stated in the earnings call that 2026 is the company's "restructuring year," with the core goal of solidifying the business foundation and optimizing the global channel structure, rather than pursuing short-term scale expansion. The company also announced a share repurchase plan ranging from no less than ¥2 billion to no more than ¥5 billion.
From LABUBU to Star People, from a single blockbuster to an IP matrix, Pop Mart is undergoing a transformation from "luck-driven" to "capability-driven." Whether multiple IPs can truly take over does not depend on whether a single IP can replace LABUBU, but on whether the company can continuously create the next Star People. This requires time to verify, but at least from this semi-annual report, Pop Mart has taken a crucial first step.
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The above content is personal opinion only and does not constitute any investment advice.
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ SharpLink Gaming staked another 39,319 ETH 4 hours ago, worth $91 million.The storage sector indeed hasn't picked up yet, but HYPE has already surged back to its previous high.
Why is the storage sector still consolidating? The main suppressing factor is long-term interest rates, with AI-related bond supply reaching $489 billion. The storage sector is a typical "long-duration asset," with a long profit realization period, sensitive to interest rates, and its valuation is directly suppressed.
Rising too much is also a problem. $SNDK SanDisk rebounded from the low point to 1814; the short-term rise was too fast, leading to concentrated profit-taking. On August 18, SK Hynix's 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation is currently the strongest signal, reducing circulating shares. It once surged over 7% pre-market, and the market recognizes this move. However, the long-term interest rate suppression hasn't been lifted yet, and the overall sector sentiment reversal requires a clearer catalyst.
Why is $HYPE so volatile? The direct catalyst is the White House crypto meeting. Trump mentioned that the CFTC is working hard to bring Hyperliquid into the US, which is equivalent to presidential-level regulatory endorsement. HYPE rose 20%-25% within 24 hours, trading volume surged to $1.3 billion, close to historical highs, and its market cap entered the top ten.
But relying solely on news hype is not enough. Hyperliquid captures 40%-70% of DeFi perpetual contract trading volume, and the platform directs most fees to a fund that continuously buys HYPE. The on-chain fundamentals are strengthening, combined with presidential-level regulatory endorsement, which supports this bullish move. $BTC
The storage sector is still waiting for an improvement in the interest rate environment. Assets like HYPE, which have strong fundamentals plus event catalysts, naturally experience high volatility. MicroStrategy's New $10 Billion Coin Buying Plan: Is Saylor's Infinite Money Printing Flywheel Really Without a Reflexivity Deadlock?
MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has once again stirred a sensational capital storm on Wall Street.
Its leader, Michael Saylor, has submitted a multi-billion-dollar plan for stock issuance and ultra-low-interest convertible notes financing, determined to push MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings to an astonishing 2% of the global circulating supply.
Many find it baffling that MicroStrategy's market cap has long been 1.5 to 2 times higher than the net asset value of all its Bitcoin holdings (mNAV). This is equivalent to paying $150 in the market for Bitcoin worth $100. Why are top Wall Street institutions still lining up to buy?
This is not investor blind frenzy but rather Saylor's extremely sophisticated "mNAV Reflexive Flywheel" constructed in the US stock market.
The micro-operation logic of this flywheel is ruthless:
First, leveraging the high premium of its stock relative to Bitcoin net asset value (e.g., 1.8 times mNAV), it issues shares at a premium in the public US market or issues convertible bonds at nearly zero coupon rates (around 0.5%);
Second, it uses the cheap fiat cash raised from Wall Street to buy spot Bitcoin in the secondary market in full and loads it onto the company's balance sheet;
Third, because the high premium issuance directly increases the Bitcoin net value per share (BTC Yield / Bitcoin per share), shareholders who were originally diluted actually gain more Bitcoin yield, and the stock is further hyped by Wall Street long institutions, pushing the premium higher and triggering the next larger fundraising and coin buying cycle.
During periods of unidirectional Bitcoin price rises or ample liquidity, this flywheel acts like a perpetual motion machine, shifting all fiat inflation debt costs to the market and making MicroStrategy the most aggressive Bitcoin leverage amplifier on the network.
However, any financial engineering based on reflexivity inevitably has fatal physical deadlocks:
First, the inevitable fading of institutional premium.
In the past, institutions tolerated high premiums to buy MicroStrategy because of the lack of compliant spot channels. But now, with BlackRock's spot ETF surpassing a trillion in scale, full approval of ETF options, and the launch of native custody by major Wall Street banks, institutions can directly buy zero-premium spot ETFs, irreversibly erasing the channel premium once monopolized by MicroStrategy.
Second, the double squeeze of convertible bond maturity and prolonged sideways trading.
If Bitcoin falls into a wide-range shake or deep correction for several quarters, and the stock premium narrows from 1.8 times to parity or discount, the issuance flywheel will instantly jam. When the early-issued $10 billion convertible bonds enter conversion or repayment windows, if investors refuse to convert and demand cash redemption, the huge interest and principal repayment pressure will instantly spiral into a vicious deleveraging cycle.
Saylor's Bitcoin fantasy is an unprecedented macro gamble. Understanding the brilliance of his money printing flywheel requires also respecting the cliff of reflexivity.
MicroStrategy's new $10 billion coin buying plan: do you think Saylor is creating a financial engineering miracle or planting systemic risks? Between spot ETFs and MicroStrategy stock, which do you prefer to hold?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Bitcoin has reached 74,000. The shorts are dead, but the bull market is not yet alive.
This is not a pretentious cryptic phrase, but the most authentic snapshot of the market at this moment. A 14% surge in two days, $3 billion worth of short positions vaporized, the sound of liquidations cracking crisply like ice breaking. A short squeeze, textbook-level short squeeze. But if you think this is the bull market's charge, ask again: who is buying? Who is selling?
The logic is actually very clear. With increased US Treasury repo operations, the market has caught the familiar scent of a disguised QE. The White House's positive stance on cryptocurrency legislation has handed institutional funds a ticket to enter. The dual engines of macro and policy have ignited this blazing rally. But looking closely at on-chain data, a subtle signal is flashing—the outflow from whale wallets is increasing. The higher the price goes, the more composed the smart money exits. Who are they handing their chips to? Is it you chasing the rally, or the shorts who were just squeezed and forced to flip?
A bull market needs two things: the flame of sentiment and the fuel of capital. The flame is enough, but where is the fuel? The increase in spot trading volume lags far behind that of contracts; the derivatives frenzy masks the hesitation in the spot market. This means the foundation of this current rise is more like a tightly stretched string rather than a solid base.
74,000 is not the finish line, but the exam. The test is not whether your prediction is right or wrong, but whether you can still hear your own logic when everyone around is shouting "this time is different"; whether you can calmly ask "what's next?" when the candlestick flames scorch you.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is that when the market gives you a chance, you still have bullets and clarity. Remember to celebrate 74,000, but don't get drunk. The true winner is always the one who leaves the party early on the night of the frenzy and steadily pockets the profits.BTC suddenly surged back to $70,000, did Trump give it another push?
This wave of Bitcoin suddenly rushing from over $60,000 all the way back to $70,000 is definitely not just a simple technical rebound.
On August 19, Trump met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to quickly advance the CLARITY Act.
The signal is very clear: the U.S. is not trying to drive crypto out, but is rushing to establish a regulatory framework.
But I think the real ignition was the liquidity expectation.
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, Treasury yields fell, and the market's liquidity expectations suddenly eased. At the same time, BTC broke through a key level, shorts began to liquidate continuously, and ETF funds flowed back in.
Policy expectations + improved liquidity + short squeeze + ETF funds, a few sparks collided, making it hard for BTC not to rally.
But here I still want to remind you:
$70,000 is not the end, nor is it a reason to blindly chase the rally.
What really matters is whether BTC can hold above $70,000 and turn this level from resistance into support.
If it can hold, the story ahead may just be beginning.
If it can't hold, this might just be a beautiful "bull trap."
Personally, I’m more focused on the trading volume and capital flow in the next few days.
Breaking through is not hard; holding the ground is the real skill.In the previous four articles, we have been discussing "how to safeguard private keys." But if you think custody is just "storing coins," you might already be behind the industry's development. Crypto custody in 2026 has evolved into a complex financial operating system. One of the most cutting-edge practices is "tripartite custody." A new paradigm emerging from the ruins of FTX After the collapse of FTX, the entire industry has been reflecting on one question: how to completely separate client assets from the platform's own funds? The traditional approach is: you deposit coins into the exchange, and the exchange uniformly stores them in cold wallets. But the problem is—if the exchange wants to misappropriate, it still has the authority. The tripartite custody solution is: introducing an independent, regulated third-party custodian. The client's collateral (fiat currency, government bonds, stablecoins, etc.) is not stored on the exchange but in the account of this third-party institution. The exchange is only responsible for "trade execution" and does not touch client assets. In other words, your trading limit on the exchange is "backed" by assets held by the third party. You want to trade, but your assets are not on the exchange's balance sheet at all. Why is this something "only traditional finance dares to do"? In traditional finance, this model is not new. In stock trading, brokers execute trades, while clients' funds and securities are held by independent central clearing institutions (such as the DTCC in the U.S.), and brokers cannot access client assets. This has been a fundamental rule of the financial system for over a hundred years—separating trade execution from asset custody to create checks and balances. Plus🔥 What’s truly scary about SanDisk might not be how much its stock price has risen $SNDK Last night, SanDisk closed up 2.02%, at $1600.62. In the context of SanDisk’s recent wild swings, a 2% move is actually nothing. But I recently revisited SanDisk’s fundamentals and realized the market might no longer be trading on the simple question of “how long can this round of NAND price increases last.” Instead— SanDisk is trying to transform itself from a traditional cyclical stock into a cash flow machine. Why do I say this? First, look at a very striking data point👇 SanDisk has now signed new long-term cooperation agreements with 8 customers. The minimum contract revenue scale reaches: 👉 $93.9 billion And these are not just verbal orders. For FY2027, about 50% of bit shipments are already locked in; for FY2028, it’s even closer to: 👉 2/3 of capacity covered by long-term agreements The average contract term exceeds 4 years. This is very important. What was the biggest problem with NAND before? Demand up → prices rise → manufacturers expand capacity → oversupply → prices fall → profits collapse. A typical cyclical stock. But what SanDisk wants to do now is: lock in customers early + lock in sales volume + set price protection mechanisms In other words, it is trying to reduce its dependence on the wild price fluctuations of NAND. Even more striking is the management’s long-term model for 2028–2030: 📌 Revenue remains stableIs the bull really coming? It's rushing to 74,000!
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💰 Take profit on long positions, wait for a pullback to re-enter
Pair: BTCUSDT
Direction: Long
Entry price: 72,193.6
Exit price: 73,343.9
Leverage: 20x
Return: +29.73%
Profit: +6.54U
The highest reached 73,970, I exited at 73,343, missed the very top. But this trade from 72,100 to 73,300 earned 1,200 dollars, which is pretty good.
📈 Market signals
BTC surged from 72,000 straight to 73,970, up nearly 2,000 dollars. MA5 (73,682), MA10 (73,320), MA20 (73,002) are all in bullish alignment, all moving upward acceleratingly. Volume is 154,700, slightly lower than yesterday but still healthy. The 74,000 level is a key round number; breaking it leads to 75,000.
On the news front, the White House crypto summit released optimistic regulatory sentiment, Trump mentioned "large-scale" Bitcoin reserves, Fed rate hike disagreements widened, and rate cut expectations increased—triple positive factors stacked.
📌 Trading strategy
Direction: Continue long, target 75,000.
Wait for a pullback to 73,000-73,300 to stabilize before entering long, stop loss below 72,000, target 75,000.
If it breaks 74,000 directly, wait for a pullback confirmation before chasing; don’t chase immediately.
Keep up with the bull’s pace, target 75,000
$BTC
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