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The 50-day moving average is chasing the 200-day moving average. Is this BTC golden cross a true bullish comeback, or is it a trap for bullish inducements? On August 21, 2026, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average reached $63,976, and the 200-day moving average stopped at $69,005. The gap between the two narrowed, and if a golden cross is confirmed, the market may begin a new upward cycle. It has gone up. It really went up. Over the past week, BTC has rebounded over 12%, with the price climbing back above $71,000. In the early hours of August 21, it reached $72,342.9, a single-day increase of 5.64%. Don't rush to go all in. This 50-day moving average is still hovering below the 200-day line—a so-called golden cross, with the Eight Characters still barely complete. Since October 2025, BTC has been held below the 200-day moving average, when the price was still around $110,000. Ten months. After being suppressed by a single line for a full ten months, just as the market is starting to recover, someone is already calling for the bull market to return. [Veteran's Rambling] First, pour cold water on the situation: the golden cross is essentially a lagging indicator. It is not a prophet, but a bookkeeper. The price rose first, and only then did the 50-day moving average catch up. By the time it really crossed with the 200-day moving average, the early gains would have been eaten up by sharp-eyed capital. You see the signal rushing in, and you might end up eating at the end. Historically, BTC has indeed formed golden crosses in February 2023, October 2023, October 2024, and April 2025, each time followed by a rise. Sounds beautiful. But after that golden cross in February 2020, BTCWhen Waymo kicked Nvidia off the car, the crypto circle finally understood what "computing power sovereignty" means. On August 20, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, officially announced the mass production of its self-developed ASIC chip, manufactured with TSMC's 5nm process, boasting computing power exceeding 1000 TOPS. It has been installed in the new generation Robotaxi, officially ending the sole reliance on third-party chips like Nvidia and AMD. 【Veteran's rambling】 On the surface, this news seems like a routine matter in the autonomous driving circle. But looking deeper, the signal is explosive. What does 1000 TOPS mean? This is comparable to Nvidia's latest generation autonomous driving system. But the real hard part is not the computing power number, it's the path Waymo chose—designing its own chips, designing its own sensors, running its own neural networks. Holding the lifeline in its own hands. Those doing autonomous driving have started making chips. Google, which does search, has long been developing its own TPU. Who's next? For Crypto players, the mapping logic of this matter is very clear. The first layer: computing power is power. Why does Waymo want to develop its own? Because AI computing power costs are spiraling out of control, and Google's entire group is pushing a self-developed chip strategy to control infrastructure expenses. When centralized giants are all pursuing computing power autonomy, the narrative value of decentralized computing power networks is quietly being re-evaluated. DePIN projects like Render Network and Akash Network embody the logic that "computing power should not be choked by a few cloud providers." In the first quarter of 2026, the firs$TRUMP SHORT 🔴
Entry: 1.658–1.668
SL: 1.680
TP1: 1.635
TP2: 1.620
TP3: 1.605
TRUMP remains below MA5/10/20 after a sharp rejection.
1.675 is the key level that would weaken this short idea.
#BTCBreaks72K #FOMC9To3Split #PopMartEarningsWatch $4 billion buyback ignited on September 9—is Bitcoin's $72,000 short squeeze just a rehearsal? On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would raise the liquidity-backed repurchase cap for long-term nominal Treasury bonds of 10-20 years and 20-30 years from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and lasting until November 4. Upon hearing this, the 30-year Treasury yield plunged from around 5.34% to 5.19%, Bitcoin surged from $64,100 to $72,300, with over $3.2 billion liquidated in 24 hours, including $3.001 billion in short liquidations. [Veteran's Rambling] First, pour cold water on the situation. This time the Treasury's buyback is not about the Fed printing money, nor is it QE. It is the Ministry of Finance using the money in its books to buy back and cancel those "old, untraded" old bonds, essentially a debt management operation of "selling short and buying long." In the $31.5 trillion U.S. Treasury market, the seven operations from September 9 to November 4 only generated $14 billion in increments—just a drop in the bucket. But the market never looks at volume, only on signals. What are the signals? It was the U.S. government that clearly told the world: the 5.34% rate for the 30-year term is a red line and long-term rates can no longer skyrocket. Once this red line is drawn, term premiums are compressed, the dollar weakens, and risk appetite returns—Bitcoin's biggest enemy has never been regulation, but a 5% risk-free return. When the "magnet for easy profits" of U.S. Treasuries weakens, funds start shifting toward risk assets. This was the single-day increase of 11.7% for Bitcoin and Ethereum for Ethereum on August 20$86.2 billion is just the entry ticket: Anthropic rushes to IPO, how many episodes into the crypto market's "AI gold rush" are we? On August 21, 2026, Caixin reported that Anthropic expects its initial public offering to at least match the record set by SpaceX, which initially raised $75 billion and $86.2 billion including the overallotment. Anthropic is preparing to publicly submit its listing documents as early as the end of this month. 【Veteran's rambling】 This calculation needs to be broken down. When SpaceX went public in June this year, it was valued at $1.77 trillion, raising $75 billion, and $86.2 billion including the overallotment. Anthropic wants to "surpass" this, actually in two dimensions—valuation, which it is very likely to win (market expectations are $2 trillion or even $3 trillion), but fundraising may not, depending on the issuance ratio. So when the media calls it the "largest IPO in history," half is true, half is narrative. But what does this mean for crypto players? I'll tell you three levels. First level: the imagination space of liquidity overflow. Anthropic's listing is like a shot of adrenaline for global capital—artificial intelligence is currently the only "revenue explosion" sector that has been validated. Anthropic's Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a year-on-year surge of about 14 times, with an annualized revenue run rate breaking $65 billion. This level of growth narrative will drive institutions' appetite to allocate to AI-related assets, and some of that money will sooner or later overflow into the crypto market's artificial intelligenceNasdaq fell 1%, Walmart plunged 9.2% last night, so why did Bitcoin surge to 72,000? On August 21, 2026, the three major US stock indexes all closed lower: Nasdaq down 1%, Dow Jones down 1.31%, S&P 500 down 0.86%. The seven tech giants were all in the red, and Walmart plunged 9.2% in a single day, marking its largest drop since May 2022. Yet on the same night, storage chips and optical communications rose against the trend, and Bitcoin surged past the $72,000 mark, up more than 6% in the past 24 hours. 【Veteran's rambling】 Don't be fooled by the superficial narrative of "US stocks down, crypto up." The real signal that night was that capital was making extremely selective choices. Breaking it down makes it clear. Behind Nasdaq's 1% drop was a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield by more than 5 basis points to 4.704%, and the 30-year yield also rose over 5 basis points to 5.248%—this long-end interest rate hand is specifically squeezing out long-duration assets. Apple fell 1.75%, Microsoft 0.43%, Google 1.02%—these companies relying on discounted future cash flows were hit first. Walmart's 9.2% drop was even more severe, with US same-store sales rarely missing expectations, signaling pain on the consumer side. But the strange thing is this: SK Hynix rose over 4%, Micron 3.97%, SanDisk 2.02%; Applied Optoelectronics rose over 5%, Lumentum 6.24%. While the seven giants fell, AI hardware infrastructure was rising. The money hasn't left the market; it's just changing seats. crThe Nasdaq fell 1%, so why did Bitcoin dare to rise 4.40%? Veterans see something different. On August 21, 2026, the three major US stock indices closed lower: the Nasdaq down 1%, the Dow down 1.31%, the S&P 500 down 0.86%, and all seven tech giants were caught in the move. But on the same night, Bitcoin rose 4.40% to $72,386, Ethereum rose 3.06% to $2,321.65, and the storage and optical communications sectors bucked the trend strongly—SK Hynix rose over 4%, Micron Technology gained over 3%, and Lumentum gained over 6%. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't be fooled by the phrase "Nasdaq down 1%." The signals hidden on the market that night were far more dangerous than on the surface. Let's start with the culprit. The U.S. Treasury had just announced the day before that it would at least double the repurchase of 10-, 20-, and 30-year Treasury bonds, hoping to suppress long-term yields. However, the good times didn't last: the 10-year yield rebounded more than 5 basis points to 4.704% in a single day, and the 30-year yield fell back to 5.248%. With long-term interest rates soaring, the longest-duration tech stocks were hit first—Apple fell 1.75%, Amazon dropped 2.16%, and Tesla dropped 1.71%. Not a single one of the Seven Giants survived. Walmart is even more ruthless. It fell 9.2%, marking the largest single-day drop since May 2022. This retail giant is the barometer of American consumption, with same-store sales rarely falling short of expectations, essentially telling the market that residents' wallets are empty. Walmart's crash dragged the Dow down by 703.84 points. It is truly strangeBTC broke through 72000, but there is a hidden risk that cannot be ignored
$BTC broke through $72000 in the early morning, hitting a new high in over three months. It rose nearly 4% in 24 hours. However, at the same time, the July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve showed — 9 votes in favor of keeping rates unchanged, 3 votes supporting a rate hike. Bulls are celebrating, hawks are lurking.
Bullish logic: triple drivers are still in effect
The U.S. Treasury expanded the scope of long-term Treasury repurchase operations to include 10- to 30-year maturities, effective September 9. Bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, benefiting BTC.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $517 million on Wednesday, the strongest since May 4. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $285 million leading the charge. Over the past 60 days, whales have increased net holdings by about 43,000 BTC.
Bearish risk: the minutes did not mention rate cuts
The minutes showed 3 votes supporting a 25 basis point hike, and several participants believed that if inflation does not improve, further tightening would be necessary. Chair Powell proposed reducing the number of annual rate meetings from 8 to 6 and suggested updating the policy framework — including announcing rate decisions in advance.
Last week, initial jobless claims were 229,000, slightly above expectations, and continuing claims were 1.87 million, the highest since December 2024. Employment is cooling, inflation remains above 3%.
ETFs are buying, whales are buying, but the Fed has not eased. Be cautious chasing longs above 72000.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 As a top architectural designer, when I look at Pop Mart's financial report, it's like reviewing a freshly delivered foundation settlement observation record at a construction site early in the morning.
Stop looking at that shiny IP curtain wall; the foundation has already emitted ominous groans. The "Trendy Toy Tower" completed in the first half of the year shows a 23.8% growth on paper, but the "net profit load-bearing wall" that truly determines the building's lifespan only increased by 10.1%. This is a dangerous scissors gap—the higher the floors are stacked, the weaker the concrete grade becomes. The contractor explains this as a necessary investment during the expansion phase, but what I see is precisely a red alert in the structural system: while the "Main Building in Mainland China" topped out first at a rate of 47.3%, the "Overseas Podium Buildings" in Asia-Pacific and the Americas are contracting, at -9.7% and -16.5% respectively. This is not a simple style shift; it is an overall instability in the load-bearing system. The most tragic collapses in architectural history are often not due to height but due to a shifted center of gravity.
LABUBU, once the "core steel column," has seen its compressive strength drop by 7.5%, and new IPs like Twinkle Twinkle, despite nearly sixfold growth, are, in my eyes, just glass curtain walls attached to the facade—dazzling to look at but unable to bear any wind load or seismic force. True architects know that structures not tested through a full lifecycle and extreme conditions can only be considered "temporary reinforcements." You cannot so densely replace load-bearing components on a building that has not yet topped out. This is no longer a matter of "designing while building"; it is a challenge to the laws of physics. Those new IPs packaged as "second growth points" do not even meet the load-bearing standards of temporary fire escape stairs in my view.
Looking at the financial ratios: inventory turnover is slowing, meaning materials are piling up in warehouses, and funds are frozen in concrete. This is a sharp increase in energy consumption, a sign of project management losing control, a classic case of a "half-finished project." The capital market's old supervisor holding the XGOOGL ruler has long captured subtle torsional vibrations of the building with his dynamic tester—this building's foundation is undergoing plastic hinge transformation. When the independent foundation of the overseas market starts to lift, the settlement cracks of the entire building become irreparable, and those shiny marketing centers on the exterior walls have lost the logic to continue construction.
When multiple IP schedules seem lively, it's actually because no one can find the "main building." A building can have rich language, but if the load transfer path is unclear, it cannot even resist wind vibrations. When the main entrance column (LABUBU) begins to peel, and other columns have not passed the 28-day standard curing period, the building has already lost the premise for adding more floors. The construction crew is busy, the tower cranes are turning, and it looks prosperous, but the core secret of the site is: the blueprints can no longer be changed. This covert inspection by market funds sees insufficient mortar fullness, misaligned rebar joints, and loose formwork support systems.
I don't need to wait for the final completion acceptance report. Because the moment the first pile was driven, the verticality had already deviated beyond the allowed tolerance. All the subsequent fancy interior decoration and curtain walls only add overturning moments to this tilt.
The signature line on the inspector's report should only have two words: Stop Work. #PopMartEarningsWatch BTC suddenly surged back to $70,000, did Trump give it another push?
This wave of Bitcoin suddenly rushing from over $60,000 all the way back to $70,000 is definitely not just a simple technical rebound.
On August 19, Trump met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to quickly advance the CLARITY Act.
The signal is very clear: the U.S. is not trying to drive crypto out, but is rushing to establish a regulatory framework.
But I think the real ignition was the liquidity expectation.
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, Treasury yields fell, and the market's liquidity expectations suddenly eased. At the same time, BTC broke through a key level, shorts began to liquidate continuously, and ETF funds flowed back in.
Policy expectations + improved liquidity + short squeeze + ETF funds, a few sparks collided, making it hard for BTC not to rally.
But here I still want to remind you:
$70,000 is not the end, nor is it a reason to blindly chase the rally.
What really matters is whether BTC can hold above $70,000 and turn this level from resistance into support.
If it can hold, the story ahead may just be beginning.
If it can't hold, this might just be a beautiful "bull trap."
Personally, I’m more focused on the trading volume and capital flow in the next few days.
Breaking through is not hard; holding the ground is the real skill.The U.S. pressure on Iran's economy is entering the execution prelude, with China directly named. Behind the threat of secondary tariff sanctions is Trump's desire to coerce China into helping mediate with Iran.
According to Bassett's statement, the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran will have specific measures announced next Monday. This is clearly combined with a maritime blockade to further economically isolate Iran, aiming to pressure the Iranian regime from within.
On the other hand, Bassett directly named China, noting that half of China's energy comes from the Gulf, and China also purchases a large amount of maritime oil from Iran.
When asked whether the U.S. would target China due to China-Iran trade relations, Bassett did not deny it, which effectively increases the possibility of secondary trade sanctions on Iranian oil.
Of course, with less than a month before the Chinese leader's visit to the U.S., I don't quite believe the U.S. will directly impose secondary sanctions on Chinese Iranian oil. Bassett's attitude makes me feel more that he wants to coerce China into helping the U.S. mediate the U.S.-Iran issue. #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 🚨 After expectations of crypto regulation heat up again, the market did not immediately crash across the board, but funds have already started to actively seek safety. The most obvious change is that funds no longer blindly speculate on all small-cap coins, but have returned to more liquid mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL. 🔍 Regulatory risks do not affect all coins evenly. BTC, as the largest market cap and most liquid crypto asset, has relatively stronger risk resistance. The real pressure is on small-cap coins, MEME dog coins, platform tokens, and projects supported mainly by hype and stories. Once funds withdraw from these coins, liquidity deteriorates rapidly, and rebounds become weaker and weaker. 📉 From the trading volume structure, mainstream coin volumes have expanded, indicating the market is still rebounding, but the fund style has changed. Previously, "the biggest gainers were the most popular," now it is "the ones that survive are the most important." If this risk preference shift continues, a clear polarization will emerge: mainstream coins will resist declines, while weak altcoins will continue to slide. 💣 Liquidation risk is mainly concentrated among users who chase small-cap coins with high leverage. Many only see short-term gains but fail to notice that once the hype fades, these coins can experience very deep pullbacks. Especially for coins with short-term gains exceeding 30% or 40%, once funds take profits, prices can easily fall back to where they started. Personal judgment and analysis: regulation will not immediately crash the market but will accelerate market stratification. Not all coins will rise going forward; funds will favor mainstream, liquid, and clearly narrated assets. Weak altcoins, even if they rebound, will... ETH has shifted from "following the rise" to "actively strengthening," but around $2360 it has entered a true divergence zone.
ETH's movement in the past two days has been noticeably more aggressive than in the previous phase.
From the chart, the price quickly surged from around $1905 to $2361, with almost no deep pullbacks in between. What is truly noteworthy is not just how much it has risen, but that after breaking through $2200, ETH did not immediately fall back but continued to oscillate at a high level. This indicates that this rally is not just a passive catch-up after BTC's rise.
On the macro level, market risk appetite is improving. The U.S. Treasury's expansion of bond repurchase operations has driven down long-term yields, while expectations for increased crypto regulation have heated up, leading to a clear revaluation of risk assets in both BTC and ETH. In the latest market, ETH's single-day gain once exceeded 2%, reaching the highest level since May. (MarketWatch)
However, ETH has a variable different from BTC: capital is beginning to reassess ETH's relative value.
In July, the U.S. spot ETH ETF saw net inflows of about $365 million, significantly better than the previous continuous outflows, and the ETH/BTC ratio also showed recovery during the same period. In other words, the market had been trading on "BTC outperforming ETH," but now some capital is starting to reposition for ETH's relative returns. (Blockport)
Looking at the 15-minute structure.
The current price is about $2318, with the previous high at $2361 forming a very clear short-term resistance. The Bollinger middle band is near $2328, and MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all compressed in the $2320–$2330 range, indicating that short-term long and short costs are rapidly converging.
The KDJ indicator has also fallen from a high level to the mid-low area.
This implies a very important change:
Previously, the market was trading the "rise," but now it is trading "whether the rise can be confirmed."
I will focus on two key levels going forward.
If ETH can firmly hold between $2340–$2360 with volume expanding simultaneously, this rally could evolve from a rapid recovery into a trend breakout, and the market would start trading the space above $2400 again.
But if $2360 cannot be broken for a sustained period and the price falls back below $2300, this could easily become a high-level chip exchange, with the short term possibly seeking support near $2250 or even $2200.
Therefore, I do not currently consider ETH weak.
On the contrary, it has formed a very clear strong structure.
However, after rising from $1900 to $2360, the trading logic can no longer remain at "looking for a rebound at a low level" but should shift to another question:
Is this rally merely correcting a previous severe undervaluation, or has it already prematurely priced in the liquidity expectations for the next phase?
These two answers lead to completely different prospects for ETH's future space.
What I want to see more is: if BTC holds around $73,000, can ETH break through $2360 on its own?
If it can, that would be a true sign of ETH strength.
:::$ETH What really needs to be observed in this BTC rally is not how much it has risen, but who will take over after $73,000
BTC rapidly surged from around $64,000 in the past two days, reaching a high of $73,070. Looking only at the 15-minute level, this is a very strong trending market, but the market has now moved from the "breakout phase" into the more critical "high-level confirmation phase."
The driving force behind this rally is actually more than one factor.
On one hand, the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, improving liquidity expectations and directly boosting the valuation of highly elastic assets like BTC; on the other hand, renewed expectations of U.S. crypto regulation have further improved market risk appetite. More importantly, this rally was accompanied by large-scale short covering, with BTC showing a typical short squeeze acceleration after breaking through $70,000. (Reuters)
But I believe what really deserves attention is this: the short squeeze is responsible for pushing the price up, but spot funds determine whether the price can stay here.
Positive signals have already appeared on the funding side. The U.S. spot BTC ETF has recently returned to a clear net inflow, with a single-day net inflow of about $517 million on August 19, one of the strongest capital inflows in months. (TradingView)
Back to the chart.
After BTC surged to $73,070, there was no immediate sharp pullback; instead, it consolidated sideways at a high level between $72,000 and $73,000. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are still clustered around $72,600, indicating that short-term costs are rising rapidly; meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are starting to contract, and the KDJ has returned to a neutral zone, meaning the previous one-sided acceleration has temporarily ended.
So I would not simply define this as a "position to continue chasing longs."
The area around $73,000 has become the first real resistance that needs to be tested.
If the price can hold above $73,000 with volume and ETF funds continue to support, then the nature of this rally may gradually shift from "liquidity improvement + short squeeze" to a "trend recovery driven by spot funds," at which point the upside space can reopen.
Conversely, if $73,000 cannot be broken for a long time and the price falls back below $72,000 or even $71,500, caution is warranted for profit-taking after the rapid short squeeze.
I prefer to wait for the market to answer one question:
After shorts have been forced to buy back, is there still real capital willing to continue buying near $73,000?
This is the core variable that will determine BTC's next phase direction.
What do you think? Will $73,000 break directly this time, or will it first pull back to confirm $70,000–$71,000 before moving on to the second leg?
:::$BTC Last night's one-sided surge left many people completely stunned😮 Many stayed up late watching the market but still couldn't figure out why there was a sudden explosive rally. I'll briefly break down the logic behind it for your reference.
First, on the sentiment side: the market had been suppressed for too long, consolidating sideways for many days. Capital was like a drought-stricken fishpond, only missing a rainstorm🌧️ Once there was any stir, the pent-up bullish sentiment was released all at once, creating a short-term one-sided rally.
The more critical catalyst came from the macro side: last night, the U.S. Treasury announced a plan to repurchase government bonds. This action directly reduced the amount of government bonds circulating in the market. With supply down, bond prices naturally rose, and rising bond prices mean yields fall📉 When yields drop, the attractiveness of holding U.S. Treasuries diminishes, prompting large amounts of capital to seek new outlets, turning to safe-haven or inflation-hedge assets like gold and Bitcoin, directly driving BTC's strong rally📈
Of course, this is just my personal judgment based on market structure. Macro policies often impact the crypto market on multiple levels; short-term sentiment and long-term trends may not always align. Everyone should rationally consider their own positions and risk tolerance. What do you think about the logic behind this surge? Feel free to discuss in the comments👇
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously and bear your own risks. $BTC $ETH $SNDKViewing this rally from a volatility perspective: Deribit's DVOL is still stuck around 39 and hasn't surged alongside the spot price. In other words, the options market is pricing this upward move as a "short pulse" rather than a "trend initiation"—if it were a trend-level move, implied volatility would have moved first. Looking at the MaxPain distribution, the magnet points for the next two to three days are all several thousand dollars below the current price. Prices can be emotional, but open option positions are not. Let the positions speak. $ETHShift your focus from the order book to the calendar: the real variables aren't tonight's spike, but Jackson Hole from 8/27–29, and Wash's debut on 8/28. Coupled with WTI returning to 86, as oil prices rise, the inflation narrative resurfaces, and the market is repricing whether "one more hike" is coming. Before this point, the extremely overbought rally feels more like borrowing patience in advance. Until the macro situation settles, high-leverage longs are racing against time. Data won't play along with you. $BTC Broadcom plans to arrange over $60 billion in debt financing for a single AI project, with a structure where subordinated debt accounts for more than half, which will reprice the valuation clearing range of $AVGO. The core conflict lies in the clash between massive leverage expansion and risk appetite on the equity side.
The market currently focuses on the credit spread trends between subordinated debt and senior secured debt. In the over $60 billion financing plan, the arrangement of about $30 billion in subordinated debt raises the overall capital structure's debt repayment risk. The driving factors in order are: subordinated debt underwriting pricing, senior debt guarantee ratio, and the pace of long position risk-off selling before earnings.
Event risk is directly transmitted to risk appetite through interest rate sensitivity. If the credit premium on nearly $30 billion of subordinated debt exceeds expectations, it will force long-term funds to reduce long positions in the secondary stock market to avoid the interest burden pressure caused by balance sheet expansion.
The upside scenario is based on the assumption that senior secured debt receives high rating endorsement and the spread narrows. If the guarantee terms reduce the default risk of senior debt, making the financing cost of over $60 billion lower than market consensus, it will stimulate arbitrage funds to re-enter and buy long stock positions. The failure signal of this scenario is a surge in subordinated debt issuance rates causing total financing costs to exceed limits.
The downside scenario is based on the credit market overpricing the risk of subordinated debt. When about $30 billion of subordinated debt faces underwriting resistance or the spread widens significantly, the equity market will preemptively reprice $AVGO by eroding profits through interest expenses, triggering a leverage liquidation effect and indiscriminate position withdrawals. The failure signal of this scenario is full coverage of guarantee terms and oversubscription of subordinated debt.
The trading desk's judgment fails if the final financing scale or structure undergoes substantial changes. If the subordinated debt scale is significantly reduced to well below $30 billion, the debt risk transmission logic will be directly lifted, and the market will return to the traditional tech stock cash flow valuation logic.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, focus on changes in the fixed spread between subordinated debt and senior secured debt, as well as the skew of the $AVGO options volatility surface after the debt terms are announced.
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #迈威尔获Google芯片协议，财报前AI订单受关注 #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧Notable divergence: On Thursday, US stocks were risk-off, with the Dow down -1.31%, the Nasdaq down -1%, led by tech declines, and $Moderna dropping 23.5% in one day. Traditional risk assets are contracting, but the crypto market is charging ahead alone, with $BTC up +6% in 24h. Historically, this kind of "stocks down, crypto up" divergence rarely sustains long-term; either stocks stabilize, or crypto falls back. When overall risk appetite cools, liquidity is usually first pulled from the most speculative side. Watch positions carefully; don't mistake an isolated rally for immunity. $BTCThe crypto market suddenly "fully revived" these past two days. Many people thought it was just Trump speaking out or the SEC issuing new regulations, but that was only the surface. The real trigger was a long-planned "big move" by the U.S. Treasury.
Previously, Bitcoin had been stuck around $60,000 for a whole month and a half, with funds completely locked up. Why? Because the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond soared to a 19-year high (5.33%). Think about it: if you can earn a guaranteed 5%+ just by buying Treasuries, who would want to touch the high-risk Bitcoin?
Until August 19, when the U.S. Treasury stepped in and doubled the repurchase scale of 10- to 30-year Treasuries, with each operation at least $4 billion.
Even more interesting is a "closed-loop" of funds: the government’s repurchase of long-term bonds is actually financed by issuing short-term Treasuries. And the main buyers of these short-term Treasuries are precisely the crypto companies issuing USD stablecoins (legally required to buy short-term U.S. Treasuries). This creates a perfect cycle: funds buy short-term bonds → Treasury uses the money to repurchase long-term bonds to suppress interest rates → funds flow back into Bitcoin → stablecoin supply expands → continue buying short-term bonds.
So why has the price surged so sharply these past two days? Because the market was extremely pessimistic before, with retail investors heavily shorting. Once the policy turned positive, shorts were forced to cover, directly triggering an epic "short squeeze". #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 Title: Standing above $70,000 does not mean the bull market has officially sounded the horn. BTC's recent rally was indeed fierce, but I prefer to think of it as a news catalyst + short covering + a rapid rebound driven by sentiment correction, rather than a confirmed new full-width bull market. 📌 Why did it suddenly get pulled up? Recently, expectations for U.S. liquidity have improved, and at the same time, U.S. regulators continue to advance the framework for overseeing digital assets. Policy interaction between the White House and the crypto industry is increasing, and market expectations for further regulatory easing are rising. Meanwhile, spot BTC ETFs recently saw a single-day net inflow of about $480 million, marking a strong level in months; As BTC broke through key levels, a large number of short positions were forced to stop losses, and the market saw liquidations exceeding $2.5 billion in a short period. So the logic behind this rally isn't complicated: good news → rising sentiment→ BTC breakout → short stop losses→ passive buying continues to push prices higher. The question is: Are these funds long-term incremental funds or short-term forced replenishment? We still need to keep observing. The retail long-short ratio has also dropped from about 2.0 to around 1.4, indicating that some bulls have started reducing their positions. What is even more concerning is that funding rates are already at relatively high levels. Similar extreme situations have occurred in the past—when leveraged funds are overcrowded, even if the trend remains upward, sudden large shakeouts are very common. History does not simply repeat itself, but the rhythm of the market happens sometimesLet's talk about an easily overlooked signal: in this rally, the funding rate for $BTC has quietly flipped positive from neutral, and $ETH has even hit around 0.01%. On the surface, it looks like a bull party, but from another perspective—the positive funding rate means that now the shorts are collecting money instead of paying. After a short squeeze clears out the underwater shorts, those left are the ones willing to pay the funding fee to hold long positions at high levels. It's clear who is subsidizing whom. Meanwhile, the volume ratio never picks up, indicating this is a pulse-style squeeze, not an influx of new capital entering the market. The data won't play tricks on you. $BTC$ANIME This spot for ANIME is truly a paradise for manipulative whales, repeatedly stabbing around 0.0026, volume hasn't increased but turnover is extremely high, a typical scenario of mutual insults. Pure capital speculation with no fundamental support, it's normal that retail investors can't hold on, they wash out and give up quickly. My view is don't rush to chase, wait for volume to pick up and choose a direction, either break through and follow the trend, or break down and exit. Do you think this move is a setup or a bull trap? Drop the tokens you're watching in the comments. 👇👇👇Recently, I noticed another direction in the Core ecosystem worth paying attention to: Fiamma's BitVM2 bridge now supports Core.
I think ordinary people might not easily feel the impact of this, but it addresses the issue of how BTC and other chains can interoperate with greater trust.
I'm increasingly convinced that if Core really wants to build a large BTCFi in the future, just having a staking function won't be enough. How BTC comes in, how it is used afterward, and how assets flow—these infrastructures all need to be gradually developed.
So now, I'm actually less concerned about how many points CORE gains today.
What I really want to see is whether, after these infrastructures are all completed one by one, a truly usable BTCFi ecosystem can finally be formed. $CORE Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, with over $3.3 billion liquidated across the network
On August 20, Bitcoin surged 11% to surpass $72,000, reaching a nearly three-month high. Ethereum rose over 19%, and SOL increased more than 13%.
According to CoinGlass data, 188,000 people worldwide were liquidated within 24 hours, totaling $3.34 billion, with short positions accounting for over $3 billion, marking the largest short liquidation wave since 2021.
Drivers of the rally: First, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9, the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases will double, causing U.S. bond yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, improving liquidity expectations. Second, the SEC proposed new crypto asset regulations allowing compliant projects to issue no more than $75 million annually. Third, Trump held a crypto industry summit at the White House, urging Congress to advance the CLARITY Act.
The core trigger for this surge comes from crowded short positions accumulated during six months of consolidation—BTC has long oscillated around 60,000, with the derivatives market accumulating significant leveraged shorts. The price breaking through a key liquidation dense zone created a short squeeze positive feedback loop.
Looking ahead, the $72,000-$75,000 range is a short-term key resistance zone; holding above it could lead to further gains, while a pullback should watch for support around $68,000-$69,000.
Brothers, did you get on board this wave? Let's discuss in the comments
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 The total supply of OKB has been fixed at 21 million tokens, and it is also the only native Gas token of the X Layer.
Scarcity is an advantage, but "limited quantity" does not necessarily mean a price increase. What truly determines long-term value is whether the X Layer has users, transactions, and real Gas demand.#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
The just-released July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve are quite straightforward: basically no one in the entire document mentioned "rate cuts." The final vote was 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, with 3 members directly calling for a rate hike. The gist of the minutes is that if inflation doesn't come down, rate hikes may be necessary later. Previously, everyone was hoping for rate cuts daily; now the main discussion has shifted to "whether to raise rates."
The short-term implication of these minutes for the crypto market is that they reinforce the pricing basis that "a high interest rate environment may persist longer." Major assets like Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum #$ETH are highly sensitive to real interest rates and USD liquidity. The minutes clearly lack any discussion of rate cuts while keeping the option to hike rates, which will weaken the market's expectations for easing within the year. However, it is important to distinguish that the minutes reflect information from a meeting three weeks ago; since then, some employment and inflation data have shown signs of weakening, and the probability of a September hike has somewhat declined. What truly affects recent trends is not this lagging document itself but whether subsequent policy communication and data can resonate.
For now, put aside the fantasy that "rate cuts are coming soon," at least until Jackson Hole hears what Wash has to say; meanwhile, watch inflation and employment data before the September meeting—if the data softens, the market will reignite rate cut expectations; if the data is strong, high rates will continue to weigh; also, observe whether funds are flowing into or out of the crypto space.The market has indeed clearly warmed up. $BTC has once again climbed above $71,000, and $ETH has also shown a strong rally, marking a clear round of risk appetite recovery in the entire crypto market. But there's one data point I think can't be ignored right now: 📊 the CMC Altcoin Season Index is currently only about 41/100, still clearly far from the true 'Altcoin Season', and overall it still leans more toward the Bitcoin Season. What does this mean? Many traders see BTC break out, ETH follow the rally, and some altcoins rise 8%–15% in a single day, and then start shouting, "The altcoin season is back." I think it's still too early. This rally is driven not only by technical buying driven by BTC's breakout of key price ranges, but also by recent expectations of improved US regulatory conditions, institutional capital inflows, and a warming sentiment toward spot ETFs. But the real altcoin season can't just be watched by a few coins suddenly surging. What I'm more concerned about is: 🔹 Can BTC's rally stabilize 🔹? Can ETH/BTC continue to strengthen 🔹? Will ETF funds continue to flow into net inflows 🔹? Will the trading volume and capital breadth in the altcoin market expand 🔹? Can the Altcoin Season Index continue to move above 60? If funds remain concentrated in BTC and ETH, and other altcoins are just rotating pulses, it would be more like liquidity rotation8.21 Friday Latest Gold Analysis
From a technical perspective, after gold filled the 4450 gap during the European session yesterday and started an upward channel, the highest price has reached 4540. Currently, the 4500 support has stabilized, and the small range is in a consolidation phase. The key focus is the strength of the 4500 support level. As long as the 4500 level is not effectively broken downward, after a slight pullback, it is highly likely to continue a strong upward trend. The upward channel is now fully open, with the next resistance near 4550. In terms of trading, operate around the support with low buy positions!
Suggestion:
Buy around 4500-4490, target near 4550-4580
$XAU Trump publicly stated that the United States has "ended the war on cryptocurrency" and urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act as soon as possible. This statement quickly ignited market sentiment, with Bitcoin strongly breaking through the $70,000 mark in the short term, causing a massive short squeeze and further amplifying the upward momentum. 🔥 The core catalyst of this rally is clearly not just the price itself, but a substantial policy shift. Trump has explicitly made easing crypto regulations a key focus of his administration and directly named the CLARITY Act, signaling that the industry is moving from being "under siege" to a critical point of "legislative acceptance." What is even more noteworthy is the timeline: the key vote on the bill is scheduled for September 15. If the bill gains enough support in Congress, September could become an important watershed moment for the crypto market. The implementation of a compliance framework will attract more institutional capital and pave the way for subsequent products like ETFs and bank custody. However, the market never only rises without falling. The biggest risk to watch out for now is the "sell-the-news" risk after the positive news is fully priced in. Expectations have already been partially factored into the price before the vote; if the final result falls short of expectations or key provisions are significantly weakened, short-term correction pressure cannot be ignored. Additionally, there is a dense concentration of locked-in positions above $70,000, so the sustainability of the breakout still needs volume confirmation. In the coming days, the market will revolve around two core variables: first, the level of administrative push from Trump’s team on the bill, and second, the internal disputes within Congress over specific crypto regulatory provisions. Any piece of news could trigger intense reactions.BlockBeats news: On August 21, the CME Federal Reserve observed key changes in its data! The probability of holding rates unchanged in September fell to 65.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike surged to 34.6%. 📊 Compared to the previous day's data on August 20: yesterday's probability of unchanged was 67.3%, while the probability of rate hikes was only 32.7%. In just one day, rate hike expectations rose by 1.9 percentage points, and market bets on tightening have heated up again! Don't underestimate this 1.9% change! Currently, the market has just emerged from a short squeeze rally, and bullish sentiment is heating up. If rate hike expectations continue to rise, US Treasury yields could surge again at any time, and expectations of tightened liquidity will directly impact risk assets. In the short term, the risk of market volatility has sharply increased, and after the surge, hidden risks of plunge are hidden. The next priorities: the Jackson Hole speech, inflation, and employment data—each could trigger a new round of dramatic market rally. $BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3, disagreements among officials about rate hikes remain Anthropic plans to publicly rush a $75 billion financing round anchored at a $2 trillion valuation, but the nearly $42 billion loss in 2025 tied to massive computing power forms the core contradiction of the valuation inversion.
The $11.5 billion revenue in Q2 proves the ability to grow income, but the nearly $42 billion net loss in 2025 directly limits the pace of balance sheet repair. The primary driver of valuation is rigid computing power expenditure, followed by enterprise-level monetization speed, and lastly long-term revenue expectations.
This event risk is transmitting from the primary market to risk appetite in the secondary market. Nvidia guarantees $105 billion for data centers, and pension funds take on construction bonds, leading to highly overlapping positions in the computing power industry chain. If the public market cannot absorb the $75 billion financing amount, risk aversion sentiment will quickly spread to the entire AI sector.
Management demands super voting rights with 2% equity, while locking in cash outflows through multi-billion-dollar computing power contracts with SpaceX over three years. If the underlying computing power cost reduction fails to exceed expectations, the profitable quarters mentioned by the CFO will be hard to repeat, and DeepSeek’s price competition continues to suppress overall monetization gross margin.
The upside scenario is based on a significant drop in computing power costs and accelerated enterprise-level monetization exceeding expectations. If the path to achieving the $190 billion to $200 billion revenue forecast by 2028 is clear, and computing power spending growth is lower than revenue growth, the $2 trillion valuation will gain fundamental support; the failure signal for this scenario is a continuous increase in the proportion of computing power contract expenditures.
The downside scenario focuses on massive losses triggering risk aversion suppression in the secondary market. If the $75 billion financing squeezes public market liquidity and risks such as model bypassing safety protections trigger regulatory intervention, institutional positions will see concentrated exits; the failure signal for this scenario is stronger-than-expected secondary market absorption and rapid chip digestion.
The failure condition judgment lies in computing power expenditure rigidity breaking the upper limit or price wars causing long-term gross margin collapse, making the valuation model unable to discount based on long-term revenue.
The core observation variables for the next 7 days are the computing power liability details in the public offering application documents and the position adjustment trends in the secondary market technology sector.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落🔥$OPENAI just released a performance report that made the market nervous.
Q2 revenue was $6.7 billion, up 18% from $5.7 billion in Q1. Sounds decent, right? But the problem is—the quarter-over-quarter growth rate was cut in half, down from 35.7% in Q1. Even more painful, operating losses increased from $9.3 billion to $12.3 billion. Slower earnings growth, faster losses.
The most awkward part is that Anthropic, long seen as the "follower," hit $11.5 billion in revenue for the same period, surging over 140% quarter-over-quarter. This is the first time in Anthropic's history that its single-quarter revenue surpassed OpenAI's.
Two months ago, OpenAI was racing toward an $852 billion valuation, while Amazon's $50 billion just came through. Now investors are starting to panic—no IPO in sight, and losses are growing faster than money printing.
Revenue growth without profit is tolerable, but slowing revenue growth combined with accelerating losses makes the market much less forgiving. Once OpenAI's valuation anchor loosens, the entire crypto AI sector will have to be repriced.
When the "first AI stock" starts to be questioned by investors, the story gets tough to tell. 👇
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 METAPLANET IS TAKING A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO WALL STREET
Metaplanet isn’t selling Bitcoin to expand.
It’s using $BTC as strategic capital.
The company is contributing 2,100 BTC (~$132M) plus $2.5M cash to Nasdaq-listed Super League Enterprise, taking a 95.7% stake and rebranding it as Superplanet ($SUPA), a U.S. based Bitcoin treasury platform.
The interesting part?
That 2,100 BTC represents less than 5% of Metaplanet’s 43,000 BTC holdings, while the Bitcoin remains within the broader group.
The strategy appears to be bigger than the acquisition itself:
Use BTC → gain access to a U.S. public-market vehicle → create another channel for dollar capital → keep the core BTC treasury intact.
After the announcement, Super League shares surged 127%, while Metaplanet locked its shares for five years.
Whether this becomes a blueprint for other Bitcoin treasury companies remains to be seen.
But the idea is fascinating:
What if Bitcoin becomes not just a treasury asset, but an entry ticket to global capital markets?
BTC funded M&A could become a much bigger narrative from here. 👀📉 The U.S. Treasury takes emergency action, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields fall in response
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double the scale of long-term bond repurchases — raising the single operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, covering 10-20 year and 20-30 year bonds, effective September 9.
The day before, the 30-year Treasury yield had just hit a 19-year high of 5.33%. Once the news broke, long-term yields quickly fell, dropping nearly 10 basis points in a single day, with the 10-year yield also falling over 6 basis points, and the dollar index experiencing its largest single-day drop in three months.
The market widely interpreted this as an "emergency market rescue" signal. But the effect may be only temporary — less than 24 hours after the repurchase announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield rebounded to 5.26%. Institutions like Goldman Sachs pointed out that fiscal issues are the root cause, and term premiums may persist long-term.
For the crypto space, the direction of long-term bonds remains critical. If yields break above 5.3% again, valuation pressure on risk assets will continue. This move feels more like a short-term appeasement rather than a structural reversal.👇
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 $BTC $ETH Just now, the CFTC spoke more directly: if Congress doesn't act, regulators might take the lead themselves.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly stated in Washington today:
If the CLARITY Act continues to stall in Congress, the CFTC will use its existing authority to start building a regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto asset market.
If the bill ultimately can't move forward, he will ask staff to quickly propose new industry rules.
This statement is much more concrete than "the U.S. supports Crypto."
The market has been waiting:
When will Congress pass crypto regulatory legislation?
Now another path has emerged:
Congress is too slow, so the SEC and CFTC will use their powers to pave the way first.
The signals over the past couple of days have formed a clear line:
The SEC first proposed new token financing rules;
Yesterday, Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and even directly named Hyperliquid;
Today, the CFTC chairman said if the bill is stuck, regulators are ready to act first.
What’s truly worth trading on isn’t just a speech.
It’s that U.S. regulatory logic is shifting from:
"Who exactly regulates Crypto?"
to:
"How to keep these markets legally in the U.S.?"
For BTC and ETH, this is the logic behind the entire industry’s risk discount decreasing.
For perpetual contract platforms like HYPE, sensitivity might be even higher—because the CFTC specifically oversees derivatives markets.
But it’s still too early to say "HYPE has been approved to enter the U.S."
The real next confirmation will be whether the CFTC formally proposes new rules targeting crypto spot, perpetual contracts, and other markets.
If rules start to be implemented, this round of regulatory momentum could move from "talk" into the second phase.🔥The July Federal Reserve meeting minutes are out. On the surface, the vote was 9:3 to keep interest rates unchanged, but a closer look reveals intense internal disagreements.
The dissenting votes came from Cleveland Fed's Hamarak, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan, all insisting on a 25 basis point rate hike. Even more striking, Kansas City Fed's Schmidt and St. Louis Fed's Mouselim, who did not have voting rights at the time, later stated that they would have supported a rate hike if they had voting power. The actual number of officials wanting to raise rates far exceeds the voting outcome.
The minutes also contain even more hawkish signals—"many" officials believe that if inflation does not decline, future policy tightening will be necessary. According to the Fed's usual phrasing, "many" approaches half of the 19 decision-makers. Their assessment of the inflation outlook was summed up in four words—"highly uncertain," with the escalation of the Iran conflict further clouding the inflation outlook.
However, the market is no longer buying it. Core CPI inflation in July has already dropped to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, coupled with a negative nonfarm payroll change of 23,000. Citigroup believes this minutes report is unlikely to change the market's already lowered expectations for rate hikes. On the day the minutes were released, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher.
Wash also proposed a bold idea—to reduce the Fed's eight annual meetings to six, giving policymakers more time to study strategic issues. However, the schedule will not be adjusted this year.
The minutes reveal division, but the data is making decisions for the market. This tug-of-war will not stop before September.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 For the second time in a day, BTC shows a Strong signal of a potential high on the 2-hour TF. You don't see this every day, even in a bull market. At the same time, the price has hit the liquidity zone of $72,576-$73,118 on this TF. Usually, the combination of a Strong signal and a liquidity zone is a path to a correction/reversal. And the older the TF with the tags, the higher the probability of execution. At the same time, there are two Strong signal potential highs on the 4-hour TF (and among the TOP-200 crypto assets, 43 assets have such tags, which is a lot), plus from the pastThe reduction in AI computing power hardware costs and the commercialization implementation are driving a marginal rebound in market risk appetite, easing the valuation correction pressure on technology assets. Alibaba Cloud's AI product annualized revenue has exceeded ¥49.5 billion, and the commercial use of the Zhenwu M890 chip has shortened the computing power asset cost recovery cycle to about three years, with EBITDA profit margin rising to 12%. The accelerated mass delivery of chips is converting capital expenditures into actual cash flow, attracting long positions to concentrate on leaders in the computing power industry chain. Going forward, closely monitor the external customer volume growth of the Zhenwu M890 and changes in computing power market pricing power; if the AI division's profit margin falls below 10% in the second half of the fiscal year, this logic will fail.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升Điều thú vị đang diễn ra: SK Hynix vừa công bố chương trình mua lại cổ phiếu trị giá 29 tỷ USD, thay vì dùng số tiền đó để mở rộng công suất sản xuất hay tăng cổ tức từ mức cực thấp 0,18% hiện tại. 📉 Động thái này nói lên nhiều điều về cách ban lãnh đạo nhìn nhận tương lai. Khi một công ty bán dẫn hàng đầu thế giới – vốn đang hưởng lợi lớn từ làn sóng AI – chọn mua lại cổ phiếu thay vì tái đầu tư vào sản xuất, đó thường là dấu hiệu họ tin rằng biên lợi nhuận gộp hiện tại khó có thể duy trì bền $XRP
This wave of $BTC and $ETH rallying has driven the entire crypto market up, with $XRP standing out particularly.
From the open interest data of Ripple's native contracts, an interesting phenomenon can be observed: while the total open interest measured by the number of coins began to decline, the price of XRP started to rise, surging to around $1.25; meanwhile, the total open interest measured in USD continued to increase.
When XRP reached around $1.25, the USD-denominated open interest saw a sharp surge, pushing the price further up to $1.34, and the open interest measured by coin quantity also slightly increased simultaneously. This is most likely due to lagging momentum chasing the rally entering the market.
Afterwards, both price and open interest entered a correction phase in sync. However, a bullish signal in this round is that the total spot trading volume measured by coin quantity began to recover. This phenomenon indicates that the market is undergoing short covering, position liquidation, or spot buying entry, which is a very positive signal for the continuation and evolution into a medium- to long-term trend. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 The crypto market, which had been quiet for many days, suddenly experienced a "bull run" today, with mainstream coins collectively surging sharply. Bitcoin reclaimed the $69,000 level, Ethereum's single-day gain approached 20%, and Hyperliquid soared over 22%. Accompanying the rapid price surge was a large-scale liquidation of short positions.
Mainstream coins all rose across the board
Bitcoin: According to Coingecko data, it is currently priced at $69,165, with a 24-hour increase of 7.4%. The 24-hour price range was $64,123.86–$69,892.23, with a total market cap of $1.393 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $41.587 billion. After maintaining a narrow range in the morning, the price started a rapid rally during the European trading session.
Bitcoin price trend, source: Coingecko
Ethereum: Currently at $2,269.04, with a 24-hour surge of 18.6%, a price range of $1,905.44–$2,318.66, and a market cap of $274.047 billion. Ethereum's recent gains have clearly outpaced Bitcoin, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has also strengthened, indicating accelerated capital inflow back into the Ethereum ecosystem.
Ethereum price trend, source: Coingecko
BNB: Currently at $631.92, up 4.9% in 24 hours, a relatively moderate increase among mainstream large caps, with a price range of $600.92–$635.85.
Solana: Currently at $85.65, up 11.2% in 24 hours, with a price range of $76.59–$86.96 and a market cap of $49.952 billion. Charts show the price accelerating past previous highs.
Hyperliquid (HYPE): The most aggressive gain this round, currently at $71.41, up 22.2% in 24 hours, with a price range of $58.04–$72.28.
Analysis of causes: Macro positive triggers and leverage structure amplifying gains
Based on recent market dynamics and derivatives data, this rally is not driven by a single factor but is the result of multiple overlapping factors: macro liquidity benefits, warming regulatory signals, and concentrated clearing of leveraged short positions.
Cause 1: The U.S. Treasury unexpectedly "injects liquidity," lowering long-term interest rates and boosting risk appetite. On August 19 local time, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, increasing from $2 billion to over $4 billion per operation, covering the period from September 9 to November 4, mainly targeting 10- to 30-year Treasuries. This move was seen as a direct response to the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2007 (peaking at 5.34%). After the announcement, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields dropped sharply, U.S. stock futures rose, and the overall improvement in risk appetite provided tailwinds for the crypto market. The Treasury's operation was interpreted by the market as a disguised liquidity injection, coinciding closely with the crypto market's rally.
Cause 2: The White House crypto summit combined with SEC regulatory easing shifts policy sentiment positively. On the same day, former President Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, and heads of the SEC and CFTC at the White House, reiterating the push for the "CLARITY Act" to pass the Senate quickly to provide a clearer regulatory framework for the industry. The day before the summit, the SEC officially proposed a new draft regulation called "Regulation Crypto Assets," aiming to provide crypto projects with an annual financing exemption channel of up to $75 million. The regulatory agencies and the White House released friendly signals intensively in the same week, alleviating previous market concerns about policy uncertainty and supporting capital inflows back into crypto assets.
Trump meeting industry leaders, source: ABCNews
Cause 3: The outflow trend of Bitcoin spot ETF funds has reversed, with whales buying the dip. Previously, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced consecutive days of net outflows, but this rebound is accompanied by signs of warming capital flows. Major products like BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC have recorded net subscriptions again, indicating institutional capital replenishment. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that large addresses began accumulating again after about 60 days of continuous selling, providing spot-side support for price stabilization and creating conditions for subsequent leveraged short squeezes.
Cause 4: Concentrated forced liquidation of leveraged shorts creates a typical "short squeeze" scenario. Derivatives data shows that during this rally, the scale of short liquidations far exceeded that of longs. According to Coinglass data, as of the time of writing, the 24-hour total liquidation amount across the network has expanded to $2.98 billion, with over 170,000 traders forcibly liquidated, overwhelmingly dominated by short liquidations; within a 4-hour window, short liquidations accounted for as much as 93.3%. The largest single liquidation order on the network occurred on the Hyperliquid platform's BTC-USD contract, amounting to $48.8 million. Large forced liquidations of short positions often create momentary buy-side vacuums in the order book, pushing prices to accelerate beyond previous ranges, triggering more stop-loss orders and forming a positive feedback loop of "longs killing shorts."Yesterday, $ETH's big bullish candle just wiped out the shorts.
Today, seeing it hovering around 2350, I really have no patience left.
In the past 24 hours, ETH short liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion, with the largest single liquidation at $108 million.
$BTC also broke through $72,000. A couple of days ago, the market's rise seemed absurd, but looking back now, it turns out the absurdity wasn't the price but us shorts still daring to top out.
But this rally can't be blamed solely on a short squeeze.
ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $189 million in a single day, and money has been flowing in for three consecutive days.
Forced liquidations just sparked the fire; ETFs and spot buying are the fuel behind it, which is why ETH is running hotter than BTC.
Even more interestingly, $XAU has surged to $4,500.
Risk assets and safe-haven assets rising together seems contradictory, but both are trading on a weaker dollar, falling long-term yields, and fiscal risks.
The crypto market feeds on liquidity, gold feeds on risk aversion, and neither side is missing out.
Now, ETH's one-hour RSI has exceeded 80—it's too hot, seriously overbought, but the short structure has been completely broken.
Today also coincides with BTC and ETH options expiration, so it's not surprising to see some back-and-forth liquidation before settlement.
If you ask me to short now, I really dare not; if I want to chase, I would only dare to wait for a pullback.
Having been trapped once, I definitely don't want to be trapped again by switching sides.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Is the current macro environment good or not? The market has given the answer.
High interest rates + high inflation expectations + high oil prices + weakening consumption + initial signs of stagflation expectations + bond market risks. Facing this macro environment, I don't really believe #Bitcoin can truly start a new trend against the adverse macro environment and the US stock market's countertrend.
The unique positive factors for crypto, after continuous fermentation from last night to today, how much momentum is left? This is the most important issue #BTC should focus on right now. Losing industry tailwinds, how long can BTC's price rise still be sustained? This is the reality we have to face.
Of course, besides the macro environment and industry tailwinds, more attention should be paid to the data factors driving the price, namely ETF and crypto capital net inflows. On the 19th, ETF net inflows hit the highest data in 3 months. Looking ahead to next week, we need to watch whether ETFs can maintain stable net inflows or gradually decline until returning to net outflows. The logic for mainstream crypto funds USDT/USDC is the same.
As for the market, the most optimistic scenario currently is to test around 74,200 this week. The upcoming macro uncertainties are still quite high. Next week there are Nvidia earnings + core PCE, obviously the current "policy-driven market" in crypto may not be able to hold up! #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ From the data, it indeed arrived: Bitcoin surged over 8% in a single day, once touching 70,000; Ethereum was even more dramatic, rising nearly 20% intraday, jumping straight from 1900 to 2300. The entire network's shorts were bloodied within 24 hours, with liquidations exceeding 2.7 billion. The last time Bitcoin rose more than 7% in a day was in April this year. This wave directly recovered all the losses from the past two months, with prices returning to early June levels. The total market cap increased by 7.2% in one day, from 2.26 trillion to 2.45 trillion. Secondary altcoins showed a rare almost all-green performance. Before this wave, CZ posted a tweet implying he believes the bottom has been reached; Wang Chun even outright declared the slogan "the bear market is over." However, in my view, this is still more of a rebound than a reversal. The three bullish factors driving this market rise all have exaggerated elements behind them. The market rally is driven by speculation on expectations, not by what these positives can truly deliver. 1⃣ Ministry of Finance expanding long-term bond repurchases — this is the most direct and primary reason for this wave. The logic is straightforward: rising government bond yields increase interest expenses and widen the fiscal deficit, prompting the government to intervene with repurchases, causing yields to drop sharply. Government bond yields are the denominator in all valuation models; when the denominator falls, capital naturally spills over from bonds back into risk assets. Meanwhile, gold also rose back to 4500 — gold and Bitcoin are the two assets that most directly counteract currency depreciation. However, the Ministry of Finance's repurchase only raised the single repurchase limit; the quarterly total remains unchanged. Moreover, the funds come from issuing new short-term debt — selling short and buying long, essentially a swap.$HYPE surged 18% in a single day to around $72 due to the White House's mention of compliance expectations for entering the US market, then profit-taking quickly occurred, and the correction continued to widen. This high-volatility asset driven by news moves fast up and down, and the battle within the current price range will determine the short-term direction. If the CLARITY Act passes the Senate vote smoothly in September, the compliance narrative can still support the valuation midpoint; however, the 9-3 hawkish split in the FOMC minutes suppresses risk appetite. If BTC falls below 71500, HYPE, as a high-beta asset, will likely experience a larger pullback than mainstream assets. Next, focus on whether trading volume can continue to expand around $72, rather than relying solely on sentiment to sustain it.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在$WLD The safer LONG is:
Entry: $0.355–$0.359
Confirmation: 15m/1H bullish rejection and reclaim above ~$0.359
SL: $0.340
TP1: $0.369–$0.371
TP2: $0.377
TP3: $0.385
Extended: $0.400$DOS understood, crypto players now have no interest in high-tech, high-market-cap, high-VC projects because they have experienced FLOKI, PEPE, IRDI—these low-market-cap coins skyrocketing dozens of times. So now they are not interested in those high-market-cap VC coins. Concepts like real-world asset tokenization (RWA), top-tier high-performance L1 universal new public chains—although these projects sound grand and impressive, to players they are irrelevant and hold no interest. Instead, these crypto players prefer grassroots culture and coins that can make a comeback.$XRP surged from around 0.98 to 1.3443 within 24 hours, then rapidly fell back to the 1.23-1.25 range, with a volatility exceeding 30%. Currently, both bulls and bears are densely opening positions near 1.25, with 50x and 100x leverage positions existing simultaneously. The outcome of the battle at this price level will determine the direction for the next few days.
First, let's look at the priority of driving factors. BTC has risen above 72000 and is maintaining sideways movement in the 72400-72600 range, which is the core external condition for XRP's current breakout from the 0.98 bottom. XRP's daily increase is 12.88%, far exceeding SOL's 1.56% and DOGE's 7.04% in the same period, indicating that funds have made a clear concentrated choice among mainstream altcoins. However, the retracement speed from 1.3443 to 1.23 is also astonishing, signaling a loosening of high-level chips.
Bullish scenario: If BTC continues to consolidate above 72000 or even pushes toward 73000, and XRP stabilizes in the 1.23-1.25 range before rising back above 1.28, then a second test of the previous high at 1.3443 is possible. The trigger condition is BTC not breaking below 71500 and XRP closing continuously above 1.25 on the four-hour chart. The invalidation signal is BTC falling below 71000 or XRP dropping below 1.20 and failing to recover within one hour.
Sideways scenario: BTC repeatedly tests the top near 72000 without breaking through or sharply falling. Under this environment, XRP is likely to oscillate widely between 1.20 and 1.30, with high-leverage long and short positions being repeatedly liquidated. The variable to watch is whether XRP's four-hour volume continues to shrink—if volume rapidly declines, it indicates a delay in directional choice and an extended range-bound battle.
Bearish scenario: BTC falls from 72000 to below 70000, or ETH quickly breaks below 2200 from above 2300, putting overall altcoins under pressure. In this case, XRP is likely to lose the 1.20 support, with the downside target at the 1.10-1.05 range. The trigger condition is BTC closing below 71000 on the four-hour chart. A variable to note is ETH, which is currently also retreating from a high near 2315; if ETH weakens first, XRP's decline may be faster than expected.
The biggest risk in the current market is the density of high-leverage positions on both sides. According to data, 50x and 100x positions ranging from 200,000U to 330,000U are opened long and short in the 1.23-1.28 range. Any rapid breakout in either direction could trigger a chain liquidation, amplifying volatility. This means that even if the directional judgment is correct, the intermediate spikes could exceed expectations.
The two most critical variables to observe in the next 24 hours are whether BTC can hold 71500 and the direction of XRP's four-hour volume changes near 1.25.
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在If you're writing crypto threads, breaking down projects, or explaining concepts online you're already doing the entry-level version of a real Web3 job.
Here's what it actually looks like
What it is creating educational content, research reports, or project breakdowns that help people understand Crypto & Web3 for an audience, a protocol, a media outlet, or a DAO.
Who pays for it: protocols hire writers for blog posts and documentation. Research firms and media outlets pay for project analysis. DAOs sometimes fund contributors who produce educational content for their community.
How people usually start: by building a public track record first consistent, accurate content on X, Substack, or Mirror. Projects and outlets look at what you've already published before they pay you to write more.
The skill that actually matters here isn't fancy writing it's accuracy. Getting facts right, citing sources, separating verified information from speculation. That's what makes content worth paying for instead of just another opinion.
Realistic timeline this isn't a week one" income stream. Most people build 3-6+ months of consistent public work before opportunities start coming either inbound someone reaches out or through direct outreach.
If you're already doing threads like this one, you're not starting from zero you're building the portfolio that gets you paid for it later.
Anyone here already earning from crypto content or research? What did that first opportunity look like?