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Anthropic's reported IPO timetable matters less than the structure investors may be asked to absorb. A late-September to early-October listing, with some holders selling while others face lockups beyond 180 days, could make the primary-secondary share mix an early signal of conviction.
Valuation talk of $1T-$2T will attract attention, but the filing should shift focus to revenue quality, compute costs and customer concentration. My read: the $30T TAM claim may frame the ambition, yet operating evidence will set the public-market appetite. Not advice, just analysis.
#AnthropicIPOUpdateWall Street is widely betting on a rate hike, with the probability of a 25 basis point increase in September rising sharply to over 50%.
Warsch reiterated his commitment to ultimately controlling inflation, after inflation has exceeded the central bank's target for five consecutive years.
After Warsch's speech, the two-year US Treasury yield immediately surged 12 basis points to 4.35%.
Now, US inflation data has reached 3.7%. Warsch wants to control inflation, and a single rate hike is unlikely to achieve this; it depends on whether there will be a second rate hike in November.
However, many investors are reluctant to raise rates, believing that the US annual deficit of over $2 trillion is unsustainable.
At the same time, with Company A and Company O preparing for IPOs, if rates rise, AI company financing will be severely hit. It should be noted that the current massive AI investments heavily rely on the bond market!
Therefore, it is very likely that the talk about controlling inflation is just rhetoric, and the September FOMC meeting may reverse course and decide not to raise rates. After all, rate hikes have a huge impact on the bond market and mortgage loans. Former President Trump also wants to protect employment and cannot allow the economy to fall into stagflation.
So, I believe the possibility of a rate hike in September is increasing, but from the broader perspective of protecting employment, maintaining debt, and supporting AI development, it is more likely to remain stable!
Below is a summary of Warsch's speech:
$BTC
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens
During this period, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between 78,000 and 81,000, and recently its interaction with gold has been quite strong.
For example, last night when Walsh spoke, everyone expected a dovish statement about rate cuts, at worst a dovish tone, but unexpectedly there was a chance of a rate hike, causing Bitcoin and gold to plunge together.
But on the other hand, don’t blindly shout “digital gold is back” just because the linkage is strong. Essentially, they are not the same thing.
When gold rises, it’s driven by central banks continuously buying gold and safe-haven funds entering the market—solid defensive capital support; when BTC rises, it relies on increased risk appetite and speculative capital adding positions, still a high-beta risk asset. If a black swan event really happens, gold is the safe-haven asset, BTC is the risk asset being sold off—this has never changed. Now it’s just that macro drivers temporarily coincide, not that the asset attributes have changed.
It’s the weekend now, time to slowly recover. You can wait until Monday to open positions; just have a good rest over the weekend Serenity 发文质疑当前 AI 前沿实验室的估值是否已经「荒谬」：如果 Anthropic 未来以 2 万亿美元估值上市，那么其 10% 市值就相当于 2000 亿美元，理论上足以买下大量知名消费品牌 Serenity 列举称，这笔资金规模足以覆盖 Taco Bell、Pizza Hut、KFC、GAP、American Eagle、Levi‘s、Victoria』s Secret、Cheesecake Factory、Krispy Kreme、Calvin Klein、Kohl‘s、AMC、Nike、Under Armour、Canada Goose 等一大批成熟消费品牌，且完成上述收购后理论上仍可剩余约 516 亿美元 目前市场确有投资者预计 Anthropic 潜在 IPO 估值可能达到或超过 2 万亿美元，甚至有部分投资者基于其高速增长预期给出更高估值。Serenity 的核心观点是：AI 前沿实验室正在以远超传统消费和实体企业的估值被定价，这种巨大的估值差距本身，已经成为衡量当前 AI 资本狂热程度的一个直观指标🚨 What if the biggest crypto crashes give us a hidden signal BEFORE they happen?
Guys, am I the only one noticing this? 👀
After looking at 7 years of data, I found something really interesting: when the crypto market starts crashing hard, altcoins tend to move much more closely with $BTC. In extreme sell-offs, their average correlation can get close to 0.9.
That got me thinking…
What if we use this as a simple market-warning tool?
#DailyOrbit Is Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme? Swan asked a question in return. The CEO of Swan Bitcoin recently addressed this long-standing question in the crypto world. His rebuttal was very direct: a real Ponzi scheme requires someone to collect money, promise returns, and then use the money from newcomers to pay those in front. Bitcoin does not have such a central operator. Cory even directly asked, "Every Ponzi scheme needs a Bernie Madoff, so who is the Madoff of Bitcoin?" 1. The core of Cory's grasp is "who is running this scam." Why is a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme called a scam? It's not because the money from later players makes those in front profit, but because someone behind the scenes deliberately conceals the flow of funds, falsifies returns, and decides who gets the money. Bitcoin is indeed different in this regard. It has no CEO promising fixed returns, and no company is responsible for using new investors' money to distribute "returns" to existing ones. Issuance rules, ledgers, and code are all public. So strictly following the traditional definition of financial fraud and calling Bitcoin a "Ponzi scheme," it really raises a difficult question: who is running this Ponzi scheme? 2. The real controversy is not about "whether there is a Madoff" What opponents of $BTC really want to express is often another meaning: Bitcoin itself does not generate corporate profits, interest, or cash flow; many people buy it believing it will exist in the futureFrom August 28 to the early hours of August 29, the largest long trader on Hyperliquid opened long positions of 1,000 $BTC and 38,000 $ETH through multiple addresses. The total value was $170 million, with an average BTC price of $78,758 and ETH at $2,478.6. Currently, there is a floating loss of $2.39 million. This whale is not doing this for the first time. Three days ago, he had just closed a long position of 2,000 BTC and 120,000 ETH, earning $61.72 million. After making money, he transferred $26.83 million worth of $USDC into three new wallets and continued to go long. He made over 60 million, and now with a floating loss of 2.39 million, it might have been a sneeze for him. But the interesting timing was the timing of the opening—right during Walsh's speech, when BTC was dropping above 80,000. He kept increasing his position during the decline, not going all-in. What does this mean? Either he is genuinely optimistic about the market and sees this pullback as a buying opportunity. Or he is building positions in batches, preparing to reach higher levels. Either way, with a $170 million position in place, the direction is already very clear. BTC is currently hovering around 77K, still over $1,000 away from its cost price. Whether this whale can hold out remains to be seen in the coming days.The most glaring issue with Moonwell this time is not "the protocol has another problem" but that collateral prices can be manipulated, allowing truly liquid assets to be borrowed from the other side. Simply put, the weakest link in the system is not a code vulnerability, but a small token being treated as overly serious collateral.
Many risk parameters in DeFi seem reasonable during a bull market. Prices rise, liquidity is hot, borrowing demand is strong, and everyone thinks the model is fine. But when attackers actually strike, it turns out that part of the so-called collateral value is just numbers on a screen—unsellable, unsustainable, and unliquidatable.
I increasingly believe that the future competition among lending protocols won't be about who supports the most assets, but who dares to support fewer assets.
Restraint itself is risk control.
#Moonwell遭价格操纵，抵押风险暴露 A skyscraper claiming to sell for two trillion, but the construction drawings won't be submitted for review until after Labor Day—this is not a design miracle, it's a structural risk.
Having worked on construction sites for thirty years, I've seen too many projects with renderings shinier than the Burj Khalifa. Anthropic's project states on the drawings "300 trillion square meters of saleable area," which sounds like it could house the entire Earth's population. But architects all know anyone can make that kind of model in a showroom; the real challenge lies in the basement piles. The IPO roadshow day in September is the day to inspect those piles.
Where are the load-bearing walls? The first wall is revenue quality. You need to tell me how much rent this building generates annually, and the length of tenant leases, rather than boasting about floor area ratio based on presale intentions. The second wall is cost calculation—that's the building's entire energy consumption system. Even if the exterior walls are all photovoltaic glass, the machine rooms still burn through the electricity equivalent of a whole street every day. The third wall is customer concentration; when I draw plans, I avoid clustering all elevator shafts in one corner. If the main tenant there collapses, the building's vertical transportation will be paralyzed. As for existing shareholders wanting to cash out early and new shareholders locked in for 180 days, that's about the proportions of subleasing and underwriting—you can't have two groups squeezing into the same stairwell; this building will crack before topping out.
$xNVDA is the rebar and concrete market next to the site. Without computing power as a "building material," no matter how grand your plan, you can't pour a real structure. Building material prices have doubled and more in the past two years; now the market is asking: does the steel content in this building justify a two trillion floor price?
I pay special attention to news about "allowing some holders to sell old shares, others locked for 180 days"—this is like the developer saying, "I can hand over some floors first, and the rest after landscaping is done." But construction rules require the main structure to pass inspection as a whole. If you first give the easily sold units to insiders and leave the most capital-intensive top floors for the public to take on, this is not design, it's offloading the load onto the next party.
Also, the "investor open day in late September" is called a "site open day" in construction. Experts visiting a site don't look at showroom soft furnishings; they check rebar spacing, concrete curing conditions, and whether pipelines clash. Similarly, the financial appendices in the prospectus are like the load factor coefficients in structural calculations—if the coefficients are fake, no matter how tall the building is, it's just performance for the earthquake bureau.
The early September timing is also telling. Filing after Labor Day gives the review agency a one-month window—but real structural review is counted by months, not days. Design institutes require triple reviews and checks; if you're rushing to release facade drawings, is it to grab work before the rainy season, or afraid a typhoon will expose flaws?
The drawings say "expandable in the long term." I've seen too many projects fill pages with "reserved elevator shafts," but in the end can't even build the second floor. TAM is a promotional brochure for the developer, not a structural calculation book. Once wind tunnel tests are done, half the facade should be torn down.
Right now, I only care about one thing: when that prospectus is laid out like a construction blueprint, are the concrete grades, rebar diameters, and foundation bearing capacity really enough to support this two trillion rooftop? Don't let the ribbon-cutting ceremony be the most lively event, only for the structural engineer to see that all the load-bearing walls are made of foam bricks. #anthropicipoupdate$BTC Wash just shouted "inflation is too high," and Trump directly threw out a 6.5 billion barrel oil deal! Is the market starting to reprice again?
First, Wash released a hawkish signal:
Inflation pressure still exists, and further tightening of policy is not ruled out if necessary.
Then Trump dropped a heavy news:
Reached a large oil cooperation with Venezuela, involving about 6.5 billion barrels of reserves, with most control rights belonging to us, and emphasized that it will not increase taxpayer costs.
Once the news came out, the market reacted quickly:
Oil prices fell about 5% on the weekly chart, Brent retreated to around $89.
The logic behind it is simple:
Oil supply expectations increase → oil prices under pressure → inflation pressure eases → Fed rate hike rationale weakens → risk asset sentiment improves.
This is also why the market has started to discuss again whether BTC has a chance to challenge $100,000 once more.
This deal is currently more of an expectation trade, not an immediate increase in market supply.
Venezuela's current production capacity is limited, some oil field infrastructure is aging, and truly releasing production may take a long time. So the short-term impact comes more from sentiment and expectations rather than actual supply and demand changes.
My view: Such news can boost risk asset sentiment in the short term, but should not be directly understood as "inflation problem solved."
Before the September FOMC meeting, the market will still repeatedly play around inflation and interest rate expectations. $ETH $SOL #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK The California legislature recently passed AB 2409, a move that has stirred quite a ripple in the political meme coin community. The core of the bill is not complicated and mainly revolves around two directions: restricting public officials from issuing meme coins, and starting January 1, 2027, imposing restrictions on trading services involving political figure tokens. On the surface, it seems like a local regulation, but in the current market atmosphere, it acts like a bamboo pole testing the waters, gently tapping the lively track of celebrity coin issuance. Many people immediately think of Trump coin. The value logic of these tokens has never relied on the project's own technology or applications, but rather on the resonance of personal IP, topic popularity, and market sentiment. In the past, traffic was almost the sole fuel for celebrity coins; as long as the name was well-known, the price could be quickly driven up by emotion. But once regulatory reach extends to the issuance and trading sides, the underlying support of this approach begins to loosen. The symbolic significance of AB 2409 is that it no longer just discusses the volatility risks of meme coins, but directly clarifies the attitude toward the participation of politicians, a specific group, in the token market. What's even more noteworthy is whether this is just the beginning. U.S. states have varying stances on crypto regulation; some tend to accept it amicably, while others draw a cautious line. If other states follow California's example and introduce similar rules, the impact will not be limited to Trump Coin itself, but to the entire ecosystem logic of political meme coins. By then, the market's interest in such assets will beRather than focusing on candlesticks, I focus more on real-time news, smart money movements, ETF flows, and Fed policy expectations. These factors are often more important than those short-term candlesticks. Everyone should have mostly read Walsh's speech yesterday, so I won't repeat it. I want to talk more about a key variable — the September rate hike expectation. Yesterday, market pricing in rate hikes once surged to nearly 60%, but today it has fallen back to about 55%. In my view, this is exactly the outcome Walsh might want to see. Because he didn't give the market clear forward-looking guidance, leaving room for the market to price and speculate. I said before that his speech will most likely significantly heat up rate hike expectations, pushing market expectations closer to a "50-50" level. This is not hindsight; I have already mentioned this in my previous viewpoint. But what really matters is that expectations have become more hawkish, yet the market has not experienced a particularly sharp sell-off. $ETH has still held around $2,400, without a panic waterfall. $BTC also held above the $77,000 level; although bears are under pressure, they have not directly broken through the price. In my view, this is actually a good signal. Because if the market is truly very fragile, then with rate hike expectations rising rapidly and policy statements leaning hawkish, BTC and ETH should see more obvious risk release. But price performance is not that weak right now. So my understanding is: rate hike forecastZero Knowledge founder Austin Campbell publicly questioned the rationality of $ADA rising in sync with BTC in this round, pointing out its "lack of utility and valuation method, merely a fund scramble under low liquidity."
On-chain data confirms weak fundamentals: DeFiLlama shows Cardano TVL dropped from 509 million ADA to 272 million ADA, DEX daily trading volume plummeted 98% within 5 days to $977,000, and Token Terminal monthly revenue fell from $20,000 to $8,000.
This position opened at 0.2116, marked at 0.2002, with an unrealized profit of +269%. Shorting based on the logic of rebound lacking network income support, with TVL and trading volume collapsing simultaneously. $TRUMP $SOL BTC just hit $80K—but the real story isn’t the pump. It’s who was actually buying. 👀
One speech from Wash, and the entire crypto market had to rethink the move.
BTC broke above $80,000 and gained roughly 23% in a week. Sounds bullish, right? But digging into the data tells a different story: a big part of the rally appears to have come from short liquidations, while spot demand wasn’t nearly as strong as the price action.
#DailyOrbit 🚨 $MRVL BEAT — BUT AI BETA IS UNDER PRESSURE.
Marvell posted strong numbers: 📈 Revenue +37% YoY
🏢 Data Center +46%
🚀 FY27/FY28 outlook raised
Yet $MRVL fell ~8% pre-market, with $SNDK, $MU & $WDC also down.
Meanwhile, $NVDA & $AVGO held steady.
📌 The market may be rotating away from weaker AI plays while direct AI demand remains strong.🪫#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto 🚨 BTC & ETH SELL-OFF: MORE THAN A NORMAL PULLBACK
$BTC dropped from $81K+ to ~$76.9K, while $ETH fell below $2.5K.
Despite the dump, BTC ETFs still saw ~$32M in inflows, showing institutions weren’t simply exiting.
The real trigger? Hawkish Fed signals → stronger dollar & yields → weaker risk appetite → leveraged liquidations.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto Bitcoin previously surged to 81,000, relying on the Treasury suppressing long-term interest rates, making the market feel that money wasn't that tight.
When Powell spoke: inflation hasn't passed the test, financial conditions aren't tight either, and the short end still needs to watch prices. The probability of a rate hike in September rose from 30% to over 50%, the 2-year US Treasury yields jumped first, and the dollar strengthened. Bitcoin has no interest; when the short end rises, holding costs go up; leverage is stacked above 80,000, so it was first pushed back to 77,000. Then the trend is reassessed. This is not the end of the trend, but digestion after a false breakout.
76,000–77,000 is the first support; if it holds, it will consolidate between 76,000 and 80,000.
If it breaks 76,000, the next stop is 75,000.
If it can't stand back above 80,000, it's called a rebound; only when it firmly stands above 80,000 again can it be considered a strengthening. If data heats up again, watch 76,000 then 75,000; if data cools down, if 77,000 can hold, then try to test 80,000 again.
The above is a personal opinion, DYOR. 5 New Realities of the Bitcoin Market After Jackson Hole 🧵
Federal Reserve Chair Waller said only a few words at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.
Bitcoin instantly dropped from $81,455 to $76,877.
Nearly a $5,000 waterfall. $481 million evaporated.
You think that's it?
These 5 new realities are each more worth your sleepless nights than the market itself—
New Reality 1: 81,000-82,500 has become a "Triple Top" graveyard
This isn’t the first time. Bitcoin once surged double digits this week, but what happened? The 81,000 to 82,500 range is like an invisible wall, crashing the bulls headfirst for the third time.
Technical analysis can deceive, but a level that can’t be broken three times is fact.
Next challenge must be supported by macro tailwinds—like a collapse in nonfarm payroll data. Otherwise, every breakout is a fakeout, every rally is a sell-off opportunity.
Don’t fall in love with resistance levels. They don’t love you back.
New Reality 2: Probability of rate hike jumps from 35% to 55% in 24 hours—"Data Mania Mode" officially begins
Before Waller’s speech, the September rate hike probability was 35%. After the speech, it soared to 55-60%. The year-end hike probability has exceeded 70%.
Waller’s exact words: The pace of inflation decline is "still insufficient," the 2% target is "firm, unwavering, and non-negotiable," and the Fed "still has work to do" before confirming sustained inflation downtrend.
What does this mean?
Waller personally tore down the Fed’s forward guidance. No more "plans"—only "wait for the data."
This means every CPI, every PCE, every nonfarm payroll is a mini rate hike meeting.
Bitcoin will no longer follow candlesticks but the calendar—whenever data drops, volatility may erupt.
New Reality 3: $481 million liquidated, bulls lost $360 million—but this is a good thing
In the past 24 hours, $481 million was liquidated across the network. Bulls were wiped out by $360 million. 97,829 people got taken out in one wave.
Does it hurt? Yes.
But leverage cleanup is healthy.
In mid-August, Bitcoin surged from below 65,000 to above 81,000. How much bullish leverage piled up on the way? Waller just blew lightly, and it all collapsed.
Lighten your load to charge the previous highs again.
Those liquidated bulls are the fuel for the next rally. Not sacrifices, but offerings.
New Reality 4: ETF net inflows for 8 consecutive days total $2.8 billion—a textbook-level divergence
Price is falling, but the US spot Bitcoin ETF has had net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, totaling $2.8 billion.
August’s total Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeded $3 billion, the strongest month since 2026. ETF total assets soared from 77 billion in mid-August to 99 billion.
Price pullback, institutions keep accumulating in the 75,000-80,000 range.
This is not panic. This is institutions shopping at a discount.
While you hesitate to cut losses, BlackRock quietly adds positions.
New Reality 5: Prediction markets still give an 84,000 probability of 77%—don’t let one red candle shake your faith
This is the most intriguing.
After Waller’s dump, prediction markets show Bitcoin’s chance to hit 84,000 remains 77%, while the chance to drop to 55,000 is only 23%.
This ratio was not changed at all by Friday’s pullback.
Derivatives market price makers are not scared by this correction.
You shouldn’t let one red candle change your belief either.
Summary:
Resistance is real, rate hike expectations are real, liquidations are real.
But $2.8 billion ETF inflows are real, and a 77% chance to surge to 84,000 is real.
The market is now split into two worlds—retail panics, institutions accumulate; short-term cuts losses, long-term builds positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Two news items came out this Wednesday, and it's especially interesting to look at them together.
1: The General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publicly stated that stablecoins are not suitable for large-scale payments; the future belongs to "tokenized deposits." To translate: the central banking system looks down on wildcards like USDT and USDC, believing this business should be handled by banks.
2: ECB Executive Board member Schnabel called on central banks to quickly move money onto the blockchain. The Pontes project will launch next month, with the Appia architecture blueprint to be released by 2028.
One says stablecoins won’t work, the other says they want to go on-chain themselves—you see, they verbally disdain it, but their actions are honest. What they really want to say is: the money from blockchain settlement must be earned, but the ones earning it must be us.
The data is here: total supply of USD stablecoins is $292.2 billion, USDT alone is $183.3 billion, USDC is $73.9 billion and still net increasing by $1 billion weekly. Tron network accounts exceed 400 million, and USDT transfer volume is approaching $30 trillion—this is no longer a scale that can be dismissed as just "wildcards."
My judgment: stablecoins won’t die in the next three years but will evolve. Either they will be regulated and incorporated into licensed businesses (the GENIUS Act is already doing this), or they will be forced to operate underground outside compliance systems. BIS verbally disdains them, but when tokenized deposits go live, you’ll find the difference between them and USDC might just be one wearing a uniform and the other not.
There is no longer any doubt that money will go on-chain. The only question is: whose name will the money on-chain bear in the end. 🚨 BTC & ETH SELL-OFF: MORE THAN A NORMAL PULLBACK
$BTC dropped from $81K+ to ~$76.9K, while $ETH fell below $2.5K.
Despite the dump, BTC ETFs still saw ~$32M in inflows, showing institutions weren’t simply exiting.
The real trigger? Hawkish Fed signals → stronger dollar & yields → weaker risk appetite → leveraged liquidations.
Over $200M in BTC longs were reportedly liquidated in an hour.
📉 Looks more like a macro + leverage reset than pure institutional selling.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoYesterday I said "81k breakout is imminent," and then Wash gave me a hawkish slap
Last night I shouted in the group, "81k breakout is imminent."
Then Wash took the stage.
Bitcoin crashed directly from $81,455 to $76,877. In 24 hours, the entire market liquidated $452 million, with $360 million long positions liquidated. 94,000 people wiped out overnight.
The market is always right. I was wrong.
Admit the mistake, but not bearish.
Let me explain why I was wrong and what I see next.
Where was I wrong?
My previous judgment was based on: ETF continuous inflows > macro noise.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF had net inflows exceeding $3 billion for 9 consecutive days. BlackRock's IBIT alone carried $2 billion. August was the strongest month for ETF inflows since 2026.
I thought this level of capital could withstand everything.
But Wash proved that macro is still the short-term boss.
What did he say at Jackson Hole? He didn’t mention the words "rate hike" at all. But the market scared itself—the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 60%.
Why? Because he dismantled the Fed’s forward guidance. Previously, the Fed told you "I won’t hike rates unless inflation is below 2%," so the market priced in confidently. Now Wash says, "I promise discipline, not decisions"—in plain language: you guess if I hike or not.
The market guessed, and the result was selling.
A central bank governor, without spending a penny, caused 90,000 people to liquidate with just a speech.
That’s the power of macro. I underestimated it.
But I didn’t turn bearish. There are three reasons:
First, institutions are buying.
ETF inflows of $3 billion over 9 days are not retail behavior. BlackRock contributed 72%. These people won’t flip just because of one sentence from Wash—they’re looking 3-5 years ahead.
Second, the futures market isn’t panicking.
Traders still assign a 77% probability for Bitcoin to reach $84,000, and only 23% probability to drop to $55,000. The pullback hasn’t changed the mid-term pricing.
Third, the technical structure isn’t broken.
RSI is about 69.7, not in the overbought zone. $76,500-$77,000 is the first support, and $75,000-$76,000 is a stronger historical volume support zone.
Up 4,500 points, pullback 3,000 points, that’s a healthy correction, not a trend reversal.
So what’s next?
Revised judgment after correction: not pessimistic, but patience is needed.
$76,000-$81,000 will become the new consolidation range. Breaking above 81k may require waiting for September CPI or Nonfarm Payrolls to signal "no rate hike."
Before that, don’t chase highs, don’t go all in, don’t open 10x leverage.
$BTC $ETH #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 $SOL My biggest takeaway from this Jackson Hole is that the market might be thinking about the "rate cut trade" too early.
PCE is at 3.7%, Warsh is clearly hawkish, and the probability of a rate hike in September is already close to 60%.
The real short-term risk for BTC and gold is not a worsening macro narrative, but a sudden reversal in liquidity expectations.
So right now, more important than "bottom fishing" is to keep an eye on the US dollar + 2Y Treasury + September rate expectations.
The market never stops falling just because you think it's cheap.#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
U.S. trillion-dollar retail brokerage Charles Schwab officially announced that it will subsequently list $SOL, $AVAX, and LINK in its crypto trading segment. Following BTC and ETH, it is incorporating mainstream public chain tokens into the traditional brokerage trading system, covering nearly 40 million account users on the platform.
From an optimistic perspective, this means traditional finance is no longer limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum and is beginning to accept quality alt assets. Ordinary U.S. stock users can allocate public chain and oracle sector tokens directly without registering on external exchanges. In the mid to long term, this will bring incremental retail capital and act as a narrative catalyst for SOL, AVAX, and LINK.
Personal view: The positive news is mainly speculative anticipation and has not yet materialized. The listing is only planned, with no definite launch time, and is subject to regulatory policy changes, so there is uncertainty. The price surge following the announcement should not be taken directly as a signal of a trend start.
Brokerages prioritize liquidity and compliance risk when selecting tokens, which does not equate to endorsing the project's future returns. Moreover, incremental funds will flow in slowly and will not immediately trigger explosive market moves.
Mapping to the market, the positive news mainly affects sentiment. Short-term market trends will still be dominated by macro speeches and BTC market movements. Altcoins closely follow the overall market, and when the market pulls back, positive narratives are easily offset.【GOOG rises 1.5% against the trend, is 82% cloud growth enough?】
Conclusion: Search remains a cash cow and cloud acceleration is still strong, but AI investments are consuming cash; positioned as "midfield with an offensive bias," not chasing the rebound, no orders placed for now.
Keywords: Search, Cloud, Gemini, TPU. Alphabet leverages search and YouTube ads to monetize user intent, relying on Android, Chrome, and data scale to build a distribution moat, then extends the AI full stack with Cloud and self-developed TPU.
Q2 revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24% year-over-year; Cloud revenue was $24.8 billion, up 82%, with cloud operating profit at $8.8 billion; group operating profit was $40.8 billion, up 30%. However, Q2 free cash flow was negative $5.9 billion, with capital expenditures of $80.6 billion in the first half, shifting market focus to return on investment.
Collaboration with Marvell can diversify custom chip supply, but revenue impact may not be significant until FY2029; risks include antitrust, AI search substitution, high long-term debt, and compute power returns. Catalysts to watch are Q3 cloud growth and Gemini monetization.
Technical perspective: Closed at $342.88 on August 28; $345.4 is only a level to watch for a breakout, losing $335 would target $320; touching these levels does not mean buying.
Key takeaway: GOOG is strong in entry points and compute closed-loop; the challenge is when AI will turn into cash flow. #谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注 #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
For research record only, not investment advice Federal Reserve Chair Wash said a few words at Jackson Hole.
Bitcoin dropped from $81,455 to $76,877 within an hour.
Liquidations across the network totaled $481 million, with longs accounting for $360 million.
96,000 people were wiped out overnight.
This is no coincidence; this 81k–82.5k range has rejected the bulls for the third time.
Three times. Same position. Same script.
Pull up the candlestick chart and see how many trapped positions and sell orders are stacked in this range? That’s not a wall, that’s a grave.
Let’s talk about the bulls’ last line of defense.
If it continues downward, the next range is $73,670–$75,157.
This range was a previous consolidation platform during the uptrend and is where institutional sell orders are most concentrated. This line isn’t drawn by retail traders; it’s formed by piles of money.
Breaking below here will trigger programmed stop losses like dominoes — the next stop is $68k–$70k. Not "possible," but "inevitable."
But there’s a detail many have overlooked.
RSI is currently 69.7, not yet in the extreme overbought zone (above 70–75).
What does this mean?
This correction was caused by news, not a technical inevitability.
Wash’s hawkish speech pushed the September rate hike probability from 35.4% directly to 55.7%. The market got scared, leverage was cleared, but the trend structure remains intact.
Prediction market data is even more interesting — traders assign a 77% probability for BTC to reach $84,000 and only 23% probability to fall to $55,000.
Sentiment is panicked, but money is betting on a rise.
So there are only two scenarios for next week:
Scenario A (bullish): Hold $75k → low-volume consolidation → wait for the next macro catalyst (e.g., weak nonfarm payroll data) → retest $81k.
Scenario B (bearish): Break below $73,670 → programmed stop losses triggered → chain reaction → see $68k–$70k.
No middle ground. Either hold or crash.
How to operate?
Around $75k is a good risk-reward point to try longs, with stop loss below $73k.
A breakout above $81.5k with volume is the right-side confirmation signal.
Don’t bottom-fish around $77k–$78k — that’s gambling, not trading.
ETF net inflows ended after 9 consecutive days; $202 million flowed out on Friday. But the previous 9 days saw over $3 billion inflow. Are institutions retreating or shaking out?
You decide.
👉 Resistance is meant to be broken; support is meant to be tested.
👉 Next week’s scenario depends on whether the nonfarm payrolls cooperate.
👉 But whether they do or not — the third rejection at 81k won’t be so gentle the fourth time.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 $ETH is quite interesting right now; technically it's all bearish, but funds are quietly flowing in. OBV shows continuous buying dominance, funding rate at 0.005% leans bullish, long-short ratio 1.74 favors bulls, which conflicts with RSI at 38.6 and the bearish moving average system. Bollinger Bands middle line at 2457.92, current price 2437.08 is just near the lower band with a bandwidth of 5.04%, volatility range 2395.94-2519.89#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto Last night the market experienced a "fire and ice" scenario.
Federal Reserve Chair Wash dropped a hawkish bomb at Jackson Hole — inflation is still too high, "there's more work to do."
The market instantly turned. The probability of a September rate hike soared from 35.4% to 55.7%.
Bitcoin plunged from a high of $81,455 to $76,877, a single-day drop of 3.39%.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated $481 million — of which $360 million were long positions. Leveraged players got wiped out in one wave.
The candlesticks are all red, retail investors are cutting losses, and the chat groups are full of complaints.
But on the other side, the picture is completely different.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, totaling $2.8 billion. August's cumulative inflows exceeded $3 billion, the strongest month since 2026, about twice that of April.
BlackRock's IBIT alone took in $2.02 billion, accounting for 72% of total inflows.
ETFs are buying while prices are falling.
This is not a market failure — someone is picking up chips at a discount.
Who is selling? Leveraged longs are being liquidated, short-term traders are taking profits at the 81K resistance zone.
Who is buying? Institutions are building positions through ETFs on dips. Eight consecutive days of inflows is no coincidence; it's a planned layout.
This is a classic "strong hands buying from weak hands" scenario — retail panics and cuts losses, institutions calmly accumulate.
In Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, the same divergence appeared, followed by a mid-term upward trend.
Institutions are not here to do charity — they are here to bottom-fish.
Predictive market data shows traders currently bet on a 77% probability that Bitcoin will reach $84,000, and only a 23% chance it will fall to $55,000.
If you only watch the candlesticks, you see panic.
If you watch the capital flows, you see the layout.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Despite the sharp volatility, I still don’t think the broader corrective structure from the low-$60,000 zone has been invalidated. The biggest supply and position-unwinding area is now concentrated around $79,500–$83,000, where a large amount of recent positioning and ETF-related activity has been built. Bitcoin recently pushed above $81,000 before failing to hold the breakout and quickly dropping back toward the $77,000–$78,000 area. And that may be exactly why the market chose the most painfuThe top rankings on the planet are almost all long positions, profiting by following the market trend.
Only I took a short position against the trend, betting on a high-level pullback this round.
The market looks strong, prices won’t fall, so many people just assume the trend will continue upward.
But the macro environment has changed significantly, with interest rate hike expectations rising sharply, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index strengthening simultaneously; the conditions that drove this rally have reversed.
When the market collectively turns bullish, it’s easy to be misled by the current fluctuations.
Holding a contrarian position is destined to be lonely; seeing others’ accounts profit can make one waver inside.
But you can’t deny your own analysis of the market and macro environment just because most people choose differently.
The market can grind at the top for a long time, constantly wearing down the shorts’ patience.
Stick to your logic and patiently wait for the turning point to arrive."Ethereum L2 Sequencer Gross Profit Soars: The Business Reality After Blob Cuts Costs by 90% and the L1 Value Dilemma"
The introduction of Blob storage has caused the on-chain cost of Layer 2 networks to plummet by over 90%, but most networks have not fully passed the savings back.
Sequencers can bundle hundreds or thousands of transactions and submit them to the mainnet for just a few cents, directly pushing their overall operating gross margin above 80%.
Currently, most Layer 2 network sequencers are controlled solely by official teams, with priority fees and arbitrage spreads entirely retained on private servers.
Layer 2 networks handle 70-80% of the high-frequency transactions across the entire network daily, generating huge cash flow, yet the toll fees paid back to the mainnet are pitifully low.
The mainnet bears the underlying security guarantees and consensus costs, and how each network allocates toll fees is becoming the most direct dividing line within the ecosystem camps. $ETH With the same hawkish speech, $BTC dropped 4.7% and $ETH dropped 6.3%. Why is ETH weaker?
The core reason is a shift in capital preference. In this rebound, BTC rose 12.5% from 72458 to 81500, while ETH only rose 7% from 2400 to 2566, meaning ETH underperformed BTC. Institutional funds prioritize BTC when flowing back, marginalizing ETH.
Why don't institutions choose ETH? First, ETF funds only go into BTC; ETH lacks a spot ETF for continuous buying. Second, ETH staking yields have declined, with stETH annualized yield dropping from 5% to below 3%, reducing its attractiveness. Third, the L2 ecosystem has diverted value from the ETH mainnet, gas fees remain low, and on-chain activity is weaker than before.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate is currently around 0.031, already at a yearly low. If the rate continues to weaken, ETH will be even weaker relative to BTC. In terms of trading, it's better to go long on BTC than ETH; if you must trade ETH, take a light position around 2400-2420 to bet on a rebound, set a stop loss at 2380, and target 2460-2480. Don't be greedy.#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
$SPCX $BTC $ETH $MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX $SOL To be honest, the 80,000 level is weaker than I expected.
It just climbed above it the day before yesterday, and today it was pressed back to 77,000, dropping 3% in 24 hours. Why? On-chain data shows that nearly 8% of the circulating supply is stuck in the 80,000-82,000 range, all previously trapped waiting to be freed. It’s no surprise that two consecutive attempts to break 81,500 were pushed back.
What really alerted me was gold. After Wash’s speech, gold plummeted $120, breaking below 4500, and BTC almost simultaneously plunged. Grayscale data shows their 90-day correlation has surged above 50%, while correlation with the Nasdaq dropped to 33%. I used to think “digital gold” was just a story, but since US debt broke 40 trillion, the market is indeed repricing fiat credit. BTC and gold are tied to the same rope, and it’s becoming increasingly obvious.
Short-term focus is locked on 76,500-77,000. If it holds, see the pullback as an opportunity; if it truly breaks, the logic of this rally needs to be reconsidered.
#DailyOrbit Pig Butchering Scam 2.0? I went short directly!
Checked $TRUMP, it actually dared to reach $3! Decisively short short short!
My short position logic:
1. Political expectation gap: Trump loudly claims certain victory, but polls hit a new low at only 33%, with nationwide negative approval ratings. The more aggressive the claims, the more hollow the reality; the narrative can't support the coin price.
2. "Pig Butchering Scam" background: The coin dropped from 73 to 2.7, a 96% decline, investors cumulatively lost 4.7 billion, while the family profited 1.4 billion. 900,000 tokens unlock daily, internal cashing out never stops.
3. Technical overheating: Violently surged from 1.37 to 3.6 in 10 days, RSI severely overbought, current price 2.7~2.8 is a secondary rebound, volume has shrunk, high probability of reverting to the mean.
4. Ironclad evidence of internal dumping: After rumors pumped the price, related wallets quickly cashed out over $9 million, son’s denial immediately caused a crash, clearly a cut of retail investors.
Position: Short, average price 2.941, forced liquidation at 3.896, 10x leverage, margin 5.44U, current floating profit about 75%. Stop loss strictly set above forced liquidation price, no holding through losses.
Follow-up focus: The bill vote on September 15 may cause disturbance, but the big picture shows narrative fading and value returning. Consider adding positions if it breaks below 2.5, otherwise hold and wait.
# The core logic of this bull market has changed.
Two weeks ago, I still thought it was just an emotional recovery after a deep drop, but the market has been giving continuous signals these days, and I have completely changed my judgment: the underlying logic of this bull market is undergoing a transformation.
Policy is the catalyst, but the real driver of the market is incremental capital. $BTC has surged back above $80,000, and $ETH has stabilized above $2,500. This strength is hard to sustain by retail investors alone. Institutions like BlackRock are continuously allocating through ETFs, with real money entering the market rather than short-term speculative trades.
What’s even more noteworthy is the stablecoin side. Circle and Tether continue to expand issuance, with USDT’s market cap surpassing $180 billion, clearly increasing market liquidity. Meanwhile, whales keep transferring chips into cold wallets, and funding rates have turned positive again, indicating a rapid recovery in market risk appetite.
This rally is not exactly the same as in 2021; not all altcoins are going crazy together. Instead, policy, institutions, and liquidity are forming a synergy, with capital prioritizing core assets like BTC and ETH. BTC reaching new highs is, in my view, just a matter of time, and ETH challenging $5,000 is also not impossible.
Of course, the higher it goes, the more cautious we must be. The focus now is on two things: the progress of the CLARITY Act and whether ETF inflows can continue.
As long as these two main lines do not weaken significantly, the trend is unlikely to end easily.
Bear brothers, you really need to be careful from now on
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Evercore raised the $AMZN target price from $315 to $355, confirming the monetization capability of Agentic AI, but valuation compression caused by liquidity tightening and profit margin fluctuations due to high investment are creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
The core of market trading lies in the pricing difference of capital regarding AI monetization efficiency and profit margins. Surveys show that 57% of Alexa AI users purchased previously unknown products, and this incremental conversion rate has re-anchored the market's discount rate on AI R&D investment.
The primary driving factor is the pull on cash flow from logistics fulfillment and user stickiness. The regular same-day delivery usage rate has rebounded to 49%, and Prime same-day delivery user spending is 3.1 times that of non-Prime users. This historically peak-expanded spending multiple significantly boosts the judgment of single-user lifetime value.
The secondary driving factor is the penetration expansion of high-frequency consumption scenarios. 46% of respondents added fresh groceries to their cart after seeing Perishable Checkout, and this conversion rate means fresh categories are becoming a key touchpoint driving overall retail GMV.
The upside scenario trigger condition is an overall rise in market risk appetite and controlled fresh logistics costs. When Amazon's penetration rate maintains a high level of 92% (34 percentage points ahead of the second place) while keeping gross margin stable, the trading desk will reprice its valuation premium. It is necessary to observe Federal Reserve policy expectations and quarterly profit margin changes. If penetration falls further below 90%, this upside logic fails.
The downside scenario trigger condition is renewed inflation pressure leading to intensified macro liquidity tightening, while high-frequency delivery costs erode short-term operating profits. When risk appetite is under pressure, large-cap stock positions will face structural reductions. It is necessary to observe technology stock position adjustments and capital expenditure guidance. If same-day delivery spending multiples remain above 3.0 times, the downside squeeze will stop falling.
The most critical observation variables in the next 7 days are the flow trends of large-cap tech stock positions under the macro risk appetite transmission mechanism and changes in fresh fulfillment costs.
#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款$SUI shorted from 0.7858 to 0.7387, 50x leverage with a floating profit of 299.69%.
Before opening the position, on-chain data showed that about 66.97 million SUI tokens (approximately $247 million) were unlocked in the past 7 days, causing the circulating supply to surge by 1.94%. More critically, over 400 million tokens will be linearly released in the next month, and 96% of the unlocked tokens flowed into exchange hot wallets.
This continuous and unhedged massive selling pressure expectation severely undermined market confidence, causing a fatal crack in the bullish logic. After the price stalled at a high level, decisively followed up with a short at 0.7858.
Near the current price, 90% of the position was reduced to lock in profits, pocketing a large sum. A very small defensive position is set at 0.77; if it doesn't break, continue holding. $SOL $TRUMP If tonight's Jackson Hole turns into a hawkish speech, then the entire market rebound script will be completely ruined. Have you noticed that the recent rally isn't propped up by buying at all, but by "no one dares to sell"? At 10 p.m. tonight, Wash's tone at Jackson Hole has already been priced in by the market: inflation hasn't improved, the 2% target is unshakable, and the probability of a rate hike has been pushed straight to 50%. Plus, the nonfarm payroll data was revised down by 79,000, below expectations, so the bulls are essentially being pinned down in double friction. Some friends in my social circle have already posted crying emojis, saying they've lost all their bottoms. With the data out, the bears can indeed laugh happily today. BTC has slid straight down from 81,500, dropping $2,800 in three days, with an RSI (6) at 19.5—a value historically that usually means oversold territory, with a technical rebound ready at any moment. But the question is, who dares to take the knife at this level? If Wash says something tough in the middle of the night, the momentum of the rebound could be swallowed up. ETH is even worse, breaking below the psychological 2500 threshold and closing at 2481. The BOLL lower band is at 2479; if it goes any lower, it means a complete breakout. The current bullish mentality is similar to the day of the breakup—saying it's fine, but actually bleeding inside. Gold hasn't escaped either, falling from 4633 to 4562. When rate hike expectations heat up, the first to be hammered are non-yielding assets. But what I want to talk about is not these numbers themselves, but the gap between sectors. In this round of decline,Wash's "Jackson Hole" speech is over,
Will the Fed have to hike in September even if it doesn't want to?
Hawkish debut: Market quickly prices in September rate hike expectations
At the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Wash clearly stated: the 2% inflation target is "unwavering," current financial conditions are "hard to say are restrictive," and recent data is insufficient to prove substantial inflation improvement. He set the action threshold: if there is no confidence that inflation is rapidly falling, the Fed "still has work to do."
Market reaction was intense: the two-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points in a single day, the largest annual meeting volatility since 2010; the dollar strengthened, and gold $XAU and $BTC retreated. Federal funds futures show the probability of a September hike rose from 35% to over 50%. Barclays and Societe Generale quickly adjusted forecasts that day, expecting 25 basis points hikes in both September and December.
Hawkish correction: wrapping up the "communication mishap" from July
The market generally views this speech as a hawkish "correction" to the July meeting. In July, Wash shook market confidence by questioning the accuracy of the preferred inflation indicator, causing long-end yields to surge. This time he did four key things: reaffirmed the 2% target; acknowledged the central bank is fully responsible for inflation overshoot; clarified that rates are the main tool; and for the first time admitted financial conditions are not restrictive (i.e., rates are not high enough).
JPMorgan Asset Management called this a "wrap-up correction" of the July mistake. However, Wash still refuses to provide forward guidance, with some analysts joking: "Investors want GPS, but Wash only gave a compass."
Institutional divergence: coexistence of shifts and opposition
Shifters: Barclays and Societe Generale expect 25 basis points hikes in September and December; Natixis believes the possibility of hikes was previously underestimated.
Opponents: Wolfe Research, considering White House political pressure, sets September probability slightly below 50%; MUFG warns to beware the old tune of "hawkish expectations heating up but actual inaction."
September suspense: data is the threshold, credibility is the stake
Aberdeen's investment director bluntly said: "If there is no hike in September, Wash's credibility will take another hit." If data does not improve and no action is taken, the market will question the hawkishness's substance. The key variable is the August CPI released on September 11—an unexpected decline will cool calls for hikes, while an unexpected rise will almost lock in a hike (current PCE year-over-year is 3.7%).
Coupled with nearly $2 trillion deficit and energy price pressures, Wells Fargo judges that even if there is no move in September, hikes are very likely within the year. As "New Fed Communications Agency" Timiraos said: the Fed may not be done fighting inflation yet. Wash's ultimate test becomes a tough question—if the data doesn't cooperate, is he willing to turn the hawkish diagnosis into an actual rate hike?
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 $SNXX shorted from 15.3 to 12.91, 20x leverage with a floating profit of 312.41%.
Recently, the SNX protocol passed SIP-423 to abandon the de-pegged sUSD stablecoin, converting its debt into SNX tokens for repayment (1 sUSD exchanged for 4 SNX).
This directly caused the market to face a huge supply inflation suspension of about 29.3 million SNX. Despite the lock-up period, the expectation of a flood of cheap chips in the future severely hit market valuation confidence. Meanwhile, the protocol's daily income is extremely low, making it difficult to offset dilution through buybacks.
Before opening the position, closely watch for worsening tokenomics signals; decisively followed up at 15.3. The floating profit was substantial, immediately reducing the position by 90% to take profits. Maintain a very small position to defend at 14.5; if it doesn't break, continue holding. $SOL $TRUMP 🦅 Federal Reserve Chair Wash's speech at Jackson Hole sent a clear hawkish signal.
Three key points in three sentences:
1. The U.S. economy may be stronger than the market expects;
2. AI investment could bring a new round of productivity growth;
3. Inflation remains significantly above the 2% target.
Before the speech, the probability of a rate hike in September was about 35%, rising to over 60% after the speech.
This position is truly hot to handle: if they hold back, the exchange rate collapses; rate hikes cause U.S. Treasury bonds to crash; rate cuts cause inflation to collapse.I actually spend very little time watching the market every day; most of my time is focused on real-time news in the market, the movements of smart money, interest rate hike expectations, and so on.....
Yesterday's speech by Walsh is here, so I won't say much more; I guess you all already have a pretty good understanding.
There is one thing I want to talk about, which is the interest rate hike expectations!
Yesterday, the interest rate hike expectation peaked at 61.5%, and as of today, it has dropped to 57%.
Here’s my view: this is exactly what Walsh wants to see. Without any forward guidance, he lets the market guess! Just like I said before, his speech would definitely push the interest rate hike expectations up, trying to make it a 5:5 split. This is not hindsight; it was mentioned in my previous posts, you can check them out.
But have you noticed? Despite such a hawkish speech and the interest rate hike expectations soaring so high, the market reaction wasn’t very strong! First, $ETH held the key 2400 level and didn’t plunge dramatically; secondly, $BTC also held the key 77000 level. Personally, I think these are very good signals.
Just like I said before, with rising interest rate hike expectations, the market price won’t have large fluctuations. The September interest rate policy will maintain the rate unchanged, which would be a big positive, right???
Then the most critical point coming up is to see whether ETF net inflows can continue on Monday. I’m not expecting an increase in quota, but it needs to remain stable. If so, there will be a price floor.When $BTC experiences a pullback, I actually don’t immediately turn bearish.
The more it has risen before,
the more normal it is for profit-taking to occur afterward.
What really deserves attention now is:
After BTC drops from its high,
whether the retracement is getting deeper.
If it’s just a slight dip followed by a new rise:
➡️ This is a normal consolidation.
If every rebound is lower than the previous one:
➡️ The short-term trend is starting to weaken.
So don’t panic just because you see a red candle on BTC.
What you really need to watch out for is “it doesn’t fall back, but it’s increasingly unable to rise.”The market has finally reacted.
Now gold, Bitcoin, and US stocks are weakening again in sync, and US stocks are also showing signs of further decline. Meanwhile, USD/JPY has hit a new short-term high, indicating the market is repricing rate hike expectations.
From the current market performance, the signals released by this meeting are still hawkish.
The biggest trouble for the market is not just a simple rate hike, but a sudden change in expectations.
Originally, everyone might have been expecting a rate cut, but now they are starting to trade "higher rates, stronger dollar" again, so risk assets naturally come under pressure.
Gold down, BTC down, US stocks also weakening—all actually reflect the same issue: liquidity expectations are tightening.
So don’t rush to bottom-fish now; first observe whether the dollar, USD/JPY, and US stocks can stop falling.
If rate hike expectations continue to heat up, short-term pressure on BTC may not be fully released yet.
Some things can be understood as both positive and negative, so before the market truly gives an answer, I prefer to treat it as a risk rather than an opportunity.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 8月28日的ETF资金数据 出现了很有意思的分化现象 值得我们好好琢磨一下 昨日比特币现货ETF整体录得2.0181亿美元净流出 就连巨头黑石的IBIT也出现资金撤离 单日净流出430枚BTC，折合3340万美元 ARKB是流出主力 另一边，以太坊ETF却迎来大额净流入 单日合计流入102.17亿美元 仅黑石一家就贡献了83.79亿美元 一进一出，说明机构内部已经出现明显分歧。 一部分资金选择暂时兑现比特币的盈利 转头布局以太坊 不过单次的资金流出不用过度恐慌 一天的数据还不能定性为机构集体跑路 需要再观察后续2‑3个交易日 看流出会不会形成趋势 还有一个长期信号值得留意： 灰度提出，比特币的资产属性正在发生改变 过去比特币走势高度绑定美股科技股 现在它和黄金的相关性不断抬升 正在慢慢蜕变为对冲美国债务、财政风险的“数字黄金” 简单来讲，逻辑是这样的： 美国债务问题再度被市场热议 越来越多机构不再把比特币当成纯炒题材的科技小票 而是当成抗贬值的避险资产 这是一个缓慢的长周期变化 不会立刻反映在短期行情上 但会慢慢改变它的估值中枢 综合来看，当下盘面处于多空博弈阶段。 短期有ETF流出带🚨 A cluster of positive news, so why is $BTC still falling?
The crypto market has indeed been flooded with news these past two days.
U.S. strategic reserves, continuous net inflows into BTC ETFs, ongoing institutional allocations, and even large whale purchases of ETH. Looking at the news alone, market sentiment should be very optimistic.
But interestingly, BTC still fell below $77,000, with massive liquidations of leveraged positions.
This precisely shows that the real issue in the market now is not "whether there is good news," but whether the good news can be converted into sustained buying pressure.
Continuous ETF inflows are good, institutional buying is good, but if short-term contract leverage is too high, a rapid drop can trigger a chain liquidation, pushing prices down further.
So I won’t immediately conclude the market will take off just because I see a big positive news.
Instead, I pay more attention to:
Continuous good news → price still can’t rise;
Funds keep flowing in → pullbacks get shallower;
Leverage gets cleaned → spot market reabsorbs.
If this combination appears later, it’s actually worth noting.
Conversely, if good news keeps increasing but BTC keeps breaking key supports, it means the market still needs time to digest the positions.
So the most important thing now is not counting good news, but seeing if the funds can actually buy the price back.
Do you think this correction is just deleveraging, or has the bull market rhythm really changed?
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 The current $BTC price is moving around the mark of 77,449.60 (consolidating in the Sideway boundary of 76k8 – 78k5). The price structure is more inclined to push back up to retest the resistance area before continuing the corrective wave to discharge to deeper support levels. Please refer to this Short plan:
📌 Trading Plan (Short Setup):
Entry Short Zone: 78k2 – 78k6 (Align the recoil to test the upper resistance to catch a good position) Current Sideway Amplitude: 76k8 – 78k5 Stop Loss (SL): > 79k6 (Breaking this mark accepts a straight hand cut,I just snapped out of this rally, so let me share my real feelings. This market is like a roller coaster—my heart can't take it. Let's start with the market: Air force gets hammered, bulls get hit hard just as excitement gets drenched August's script was just too thrilling. At the start of the month, Bitcoin was hovering around $64,000, but then the US Treasury pulled a big move, saying it would double the amount of long-term Treasury bond repurchases to at least $4 billion per transaction. The market interpreted this as "disguised money printing"—as soon as the dollar weakened, Bitcoin and gold surged together. The air force was instantly blown up—$2.74 billion in liquidations in a single day on August 20! Bitcoin surged to $81,000 in one go, with a 28% increase in August, hitting a three-year high. Ethereum was not to be outdone, surging 19% to $2,250. The Fear and Greed Index jumped from a "panic" of 40 to 74 in a few days to "extreme greed." But! Just when I thought it was time to surge, Fed Chairman Warsh poured cold water on Jackson Hole—"Inflation hasn't been resolved yet, and the financial environment isn't exactly loose." The market instantly turned hostile, with Bitcoin dropping from $80,000 to around $77,000, and the market evaporating 4% in a single day. $BTC: Is $80,000 the floor or the ceiling? My current judgment is: short-term volatility, medium-term bullishness, but the $80,000 level is crucial. The good news is that institutions are buying with real money—over $2.6 billion net inflow in eight days, which isn't something retail investors can sustain with FOMO. And Coinbase has shown a premium on Binance, indicating that US institutions are leading this rally. But the bad news is, Warsh🚨 What if the biggest crypto crashes give us a hidden signal BEFORE they happen?
Guys, am I the only one noticing this? 👀
After looking at 7 years of data, I found something really interesting: when the crypto market starts crashing hard, altcoins tend to move much more closely with $BTC. In extreme sell-offs, their average correlation can get close to 0.9.
That got me thinking…
What if we use this as a simple market-warning tool?
#DailyOrbit When the Fed Chairman said, "We still have work to do," Bitcoin's $80,000 celebration suddenly quieted down. At 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, Fed Chairman Kevin Walsh delivered a speech titled "Our Era" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Before he finished speaking, gold plunged $50, and the market's probability of a September rate hike soared from 35% to 60%. Just a few days ago, Bitcoin had just surged past the $80,000 mark, hitting a three-month high. So far in August, it has surged 28%. On the surface, it continues the liquidity feast, but in reality, the Fed has already started closing the table. Bitcoin breaks $80,000: Celebration or Last Supper? The trigger for this Bitcoin surge is actually quite interesting. The US Treasury announced it would double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, which the market interpreted as a "disguised QE." The dollar weakened, and funds flowed into Bitcoin and gold—these "non-sovereign assets". Coupled with Trump's call for Congress to pass the Clarity Act for crypto regulation, Bitcoin surged 23% in one week, with short sellers blowing out $4.6 billion in three days. Sounds impressive, right? But there are several details worth pondering in the data. First, this rally is largely driven by "short squeezes," meaning shorts are being forced out of positions rather than actual spot buying. Analysts have already pointed out that the momentum driven purely by forced liquidation has clearly weakened. Whether it can hold up depends on whether ETF inflows can continue. Second, ETF data looks lively, but the underlying strength isn't that strong. In the third week of August, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $1.9 billion,Kanye launched a coin called YZY on Solana last August, branded as the Yeezy brand payment ecosystem—paired with Ye Pay and YZY Card.
On the launch day, it surged to a market cap of several billion dollars, then steadily collapsed. By the end of the year, the price had dropped to around $0.0008.
Then it rebounded in 2026.
As of August 29, the YTD increase was about 42,730%. According to CoinLore, it ranked first in performance for 2026. The current price ranges between $0.29 and $0.35, with a circulating market cap of roughly 90 to 100 million.
The numbers are staggering. But I have to clarify how this increase came about—from $0.0008 to $0.3, the percentage obviously exploded, but the starting point was an almost zero price. A low-base rebound and sustained fundamental growth are two different things.
A few facts: total supply is 1 billion tokens, about 300 million are circulating, and the remaining roughly 70% are still locked in Yeezy Investments LLC’s vesting plan. On August 16, about 120 million tokens were just unlocked, accounting for 12% of the total supply.
The pattern of celebrity meme coins has never changed: when they rise, you feel like a genius; when they fall, you question your life. YZY went through this on its very first day.