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New York silver futures fell 3%, which is just a normal "pressure release" after the previous overheating, and the trend reversal has not yet occurred!
$XAG silver once surged above $70, with an accumulated increase of over 20% in August, clearly outperforming gold in the short term; now there is a single-day pullback of 3%, mostly profit-taking at high levels. More importantly, silver's cumulative increase over the past year has exceeded 70%, indicating a very thick profit buffer for trend funds, so the pullback will naturally be more intense.
But this decline also reveals one issue: $70 has started to become a dense chip area. If there is a continuous volume-increasing decline afterward, especially breaking below the previous breakout zone, silver's high-level momentum trading will significantly cool down.
The real beneficiaries are downstream silver industrial enterprises, especially high-consumption sectors like photovoltaics and electronics—the silver price drop directly reduces raw material costs.
I remain optimistic about silver in the medium to long term, but am more cautious in the short term. Gold's defensive attributes are more stable than silver, and $BTC depends on liquidity. Currently, it is not recommended to chase silver mining companies; wait until the silver price returns above $70 or stabilizes with reduced volume after a pullback before reconsidering. It is worth watching now, but not a position for blind bottom-fishing. TRUMP at $2.7, do you dare to chase?
First, look at the surface: it rebounded from 1.37 to 3.07, doubling.
It bottomed between 1.37-1.50 in mid-August, then instantly surged to 3.64 on 8/22. Although it pulled back, the weekly chart shows a 48% gain and the monthly chart an 88% gain. Volume broke through the 2.05 bear market resistance, standing above EMA20/50, with the weekly chart showing higher lows — the mid-term trend has reversed. But RSI at 73 is overbought, Bollinger upper band pierced, and the team is selling coins.
First thing: the team is selling coins, but the market seems indifferent.
In the past 48 hours, the project wallet swapped TRUMP for 3.38 million USDC, sent 646,000 coins to OKX, and transferred another 2.62 million coins (about $6.2 million). The market interprets this as "insiders cashing out."
But the unlock is not over; on September 18, another 28.7 million coins will be given to insiders, with about 900,000 coins released linearly every day.
Retail investors are shouting "MAGA to the moon," while the team calmly unloads.
Second thing: the supply structure is terrible, and this is TRUMP's ceiling.
Total supply is 1 billion, with only 200-250 million (20-25%) circulating. The creator/CIC Digital-related pools hold a very high proportion, with unlocks continuing until the end of 2027.
If you buy 1 TRUMP now, there are 4 more waiting to be unlocked and dumped behind it.
900,000 new coins enter the market daily, equivalent to over $2 million in daily selling pressure.
The batch of 28.7 million coins on September 18 is about 4% of the market cap at current price, released all at once.
Third thing: technical indicators show divergence signals.
Bullish side:
Volume breakout above 2.05 bear market resistance, higher lows on weekly chart
Above EMA20/50 (around 1.8-2.0), 20-week EMA at about 2.21 becomes new support
ADX around 43, indicating strong trend strength
Bearish side:
RSI at 73 overbought, StochRSI/CCI generally overheated
Today pierced Bollinger upper band 2.80-2.93 then pulled back, long upper shadow
200-day moving average around 2.36-2.71 is a contested zone
Today's high at 3.07 already hit resistance once
Resistance above: 2.80-2.93 → 3.07-3.11 (today's high) → 3.38-3.67 (8/22 long shadow)
Support below: 2.50-2.55 → 2.21-2.30 (20-week EMA) → 2.05 (bear market resistance turned support)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If it rebounds to 2.88-3.05 with 15m/1h bearish divergence, reduce longs or lightly short, target 2.70-2.55, stop loss at 3.12, do high sell and low buy around 2.7.
Swing traders:
Wait for a pullback to 2.52-2.58 with volume contraction and stabilization, or 2.28-2.35 to confirm support, then go long. Targets at 2.90-3.10-3.60. Stop loss structure at 2.18 or below 2.03.
When to switch to offense?
When the daily chart firmly holds above 3.11 with volume support and pullback does not break 2.80 — only then can targets be set to 3.67/4.4+.
Risk control is more important than direction (September 18 is the real test)
If there is another on-chain alert of "team wallet entering exchange/swapping stablecoins," prioritize reducing positions, don’t make stories. 7-10 days before the September 18 unlock, reduce leverage and overnight exposure. Insider chips will be priced in advance.
If BTC breaks recent lows with volume, TRUMP will likely follow the sell-off — watch the market first, then MAGA.
TRUMP’s current movement is very similar to PEPE in 2025 —
99% of people see "doubled" and chase in, only to be dumped back to the starting point by insider unlocks. But 1% buy below 2.5 and reduce above 3.0, repeating this three times.
It’s not that TRUMP is bad, it’s that you mistake every rebound for a reversal and every sell-off for a pump.
What is your TRUMP cost?
At 2.7, do you chase or not?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP Hyperliquid: $1.2 Billion Unlock Cap, Can Buybacks and Compliance Hold Up?
Today Hyperliquid faces its largest monthly unlock ever: about 14.18 million $HYPE tokens, worth approximately $1.1-1.2 billion at current prices, accounting for 1.4% of total supply. Just three days ago (8/26), HYPE hit a new all-time high of $83.5, now retreating to around $80.
Two opposing forces clash:
Bear side: The unlock floods the market, coinciding with a decline in overall market risk appetite, creating real short-term selling pressure;
Bull side: The CFTC is pushing for Hyperliquid’s compliance to enter the US market, with Trump publicly mentioning this;
The AQAv2 mechanism will use USDC reserve yields for automatic HYPE buybacks and burns, starting in October — this is structural buying.
My view: HYPE is one of the few tokens in DeFi currently with "real cash flow + regulatory entry ticket expectations." The unlock-induced pullback is a test for long-term capital, not the end.
Watch two indicators: the on-chain flow of unlocked tokens, and the actual burn volume after buybacks start in October. Let the data speak to the strength of the logic.
Risk warning: The valuation supported by $14 million daily revenue is not cheap; if the compliance process changes, the logic will be hit harder than the valuation.Bitcoin's upward momentum weakens—can it continue to rise? In terms of upward momentum, Bitcoin's recent surge is the result of multiple factors resonating with "ETF funds returning + improved macro liquidity expectations + short squeeze + technical breakthrough." But now, these upward momentum is gradually weakening. Walsh's hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting raised the probability of a rate hike in September from about 35% to around 60%, significantly cooling market expectations for subsequent liquidity improvement. Bitcoin spot ETFs had seen net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, but after August 19 and 20, the scale of daily net inflows gradually declined, with about $202 million in net outflows on August 28, ending a streak of net inflows. This means marginal buying interest in ETFs is weakening, and the market has even started to turn into net outflows. Meanwhile, the short squeeze formed during the August 19–21 rally has clearly weakened, and the upward momentum from the short squeeze is also declining. Overall, the momentum driving Bitcoin's continued rise is clearly weakening. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has also shown multiple negative signals: From the volume-price relationship perspective: After a series of consecutive volume-price divergences, yesterday's declining volume has already surpassed the rising volume on August 27 and 28, indicating increasing selling pressure. From the funding perspective: Bitcoin spot funds have seen net outflows for three consecutive days, increasing day by day, reaching $205 million yesterday, indicating short-term profit-taking pressurea deep ETH drop can force Hyperliquid to liquidate the 38k ETH longs wallet by wallet and send sell orders into its book. after Warsh spoke, rate hike odds rose from about 35% to 56% and BTC fell 3.3%. those longs are 5.03% of Hyperliquid ETH OI versus 0.41% across exchanges.#DailyIdeally, place a long order around 75500, push for successive highs, then continue with a volatile pullback. The ideal target is to take profit at 78600, then decide the short entry point based on the pattern.
Not optimistic about a bull rebound.
Worth mentioning:
At Jackson Hole, Walsh still donned the hawkish stance, emphasizing the weight of inflation under his administration. Using verbal expectation management to cool down an overheated economy is undoubtedly the lowest-cost "interest rate control."
The Federal Reserve is not in a position to truly raise rates.
The Federal Reserve also currently lacks the ability to cut rates.
The real interest rate is stuck at the current level.
For the US to fight recession and achieve a soft economic landing, the primary core remains the strength of the dollar and visible sustained economic growth.
The former requires more stable US Treasury yields, the latter requires AI to continue driving and genuinely improve productivity, benefiting the consumer side.
US interest rates will not change in September, Japan will raise rates, and carry trades will cool down. But the cooling of Fed rate hike expectations will offset some of the pricing logic decline in rate cut expectations.
Of course, if August CPI falls, the highest risk pricing of rate cut expectations will still appear.
Regarding BTC's trend, there's not much to say. Macro-wise, aside from liquidity as the most micro macro condition, the biggest gray rhino is the midterm elections landing.
No matter who wins, red or blue, it is the biggest test for risk assets.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #Anthropic: IPO New Progress, Prospectus Planned for September Release
The leader has something to say
Holding the ZEC short position all along, entered at 830, now the price is around 790, with over 40 points of floating profit. The timing from entry to now has been steady.
Core logic unchanged
Previously analyzed the drivers behind ZEC's surge: Grayscale ETF expectations plus Ironwood upgrade fixing vulnerabilities pushed ZEC from 250 to 859. Now the ETF has launched, with a first-day trading volume of $14.8 million, not bad but not strong either. After the positive news is realized, the price needs new support to maintain the high level.
Barry Silbert compared ZEC to Bitcoin in 2013; take that with a grain of salt. The Grayscale founder backing his own product is logical, but sustained net inflows into the ETF are the real buying support, which we have yet to see.
Why continue holding the short position
First, lack of new catalysts after ETF launch. The core driver of ZEC's rise was ETF expectations, now fulfilled. The market needs to see continuous net inflow data to push prices higher. The first-day $14.8 million volume is decent but insufficient to support a market cap of over 10 billion for sustained growth.
Second, technicals are weakening. ZEC has fallen back from the 859 high, with clear resistance above. Daily candles are consecutively bearish, short-term bullish structure is eroding. The 830 level is at the end of a short squeeze rally, inherently a high-probability short zone.
Third, the long-term structural issues in the privacy coin sector remain. Regulatory frameworks for privacy assets will only become stricter. ZCash's technical upgrade fixed vulnerabilities but did not change privacy coins' marginal status in mainstream finance.
Operation plan
Continue holding the short position, move stop loss up to 860 to break even, let profits run. Target area is 600 to 650. If ZEC can hold above 850, indicating ETF buying is stronger than expected, then consider taking profits and exiting. Control position size well, do not hold through excessive risk. $BTC $ETH $SOL
On the market, Bitcoin is oscillating near 78,500, Ethereum around 2,470. Wash's speech gave no direction, rate hike expectations slightly warming, short-term risk assets under pressure. All longs have been closed waiting for a pullback, no rush to bet on direction.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.In-depth logical analysis of Walsh — September rate hike probability soars to 58%? With such poor data, what can they raise! Understanding the Fed's “verbal smokescreen”
Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole about “inflation not meeting the target, financial conditions not tight enough” scared the September rate hike probability from 35% up to nearly 58%, pushing the 2-year US Treasury yield to 4.35%, and the market followed with a pullback. But thinking calmly: with such poor real data, what can the Fed raise?
1. Exposing the three major flaws of the “rate hike expectation”
The real economy has cooled: Chicago PMI plummeted to 47.1, below the boom-bust line. Employment was sharply revised down by 79,000, with underlying data inflated. Inflation expectations actually fell to 4.0%, below the expected 4.4%. Walsh is merely “expectation management,” shouting threats but holding no bullets.
2. Full probability pricing is actually a turning point
The financial market trades on “expectation gaps.” When the September rate hike is priced near 60%, panic selling has already been fully vented. Triple negative factors combined (extreme hawkishness + $6.44 billion delivery + gold and silver plunge), BTC still firmly holds $77,000, ETH holds $2,400, indicating very strong spot support below, making it hard to push prices down.
3. Core conclusions and targets
After panic sentiment clears, a golden pit appears
$BTC: defend 76,500-77,000, target 84,000 after reclaiming 80,000
$ETH: bottoming at 2,400, expect catch-up rise to 2,800
Don't be scared by 58% to give up your chips; wait for clearing over the weekend, Monday's rebound will only be stronger.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 I can't even remember how many times I've praised ETH in this market wave. Yesterday, the $BTC ETF ended nine consecutive days of inflows. Of course, this is just a short-term cooling signal, not proof that long-term demand has disappeared. It could be a rotation between products or a risk rebalancing after macro speeches; on the other hand, the $ETH ETF continued to maintain inflows for the 10th trading day. Despite a slight 24h decline, ETF buying can naturally decouple from short-term price performance.
Moreover, whales and institutions have recently bought over $1B ETH, and exchange ETH reserves have dropped to about 14.93M ETH. This is a strong supply signal for ETH, indicating that some chips may have entered long-term holding, staking, or custody. Next, I will observe whether inflows continue on the 11th and 12th trading days and whether the price can hold around $2,400 DON’T CONFUSE A STRONG RALLY WITH A FREE PASS TO TAKE RISK
$BTC pushed above $80K before facing selling pressure, while altcoins remain much more volatile.
Keep $BTC and $ETH as the core. Treat $H, $LAB, $CORE, $ASTER and $BEAT as higher-risk plays—not foundations.
Don’t chase every pump. Protect capital and wait for confirmation. 👀
$BTC $ETH#DailyPublicly listed Bitcoin mining companies are undergoing a restructuring of their business models. CoinShares predicts that AI-related revenue will rise to 70% in December. This data marks that the industry's focus has shifted from pure hash rate competition to a diversified revenue structure centered on artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. Traditional mining is gradually relegating to a secondary position, becoming the infrastructure foundation supporting corporate cash flow. This drastic structural shift is not caused by short-term market speculation but is an inevitable choice after the failure of the underlying economic model, signaling that the entire crypto mining ecosystem is being redefined. The deeper reason lies in the 'halving' event on the Bitcoin network in April 2024, where the block reward plummeted from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins, directly causing a sharp contraction in mining profit margins. Facing survival pressures, mining companies have begun to reuse their existing power supply capacity, cooling systems, and data center spaces, transforming them into infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing tasks. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, AI accounted for only 30% of revenue at the beginning of 2025, but this proportion doubled rapidly within just a few months. This cross-industry reuse of infrastructure not only solves the problem of idle computing power but also allows mining companies to enter the massive computing power demand market driven by large model training and inference, achieving a leap from a single cryptocurrency miner to a comprehensive computing power provider. Notably, the commercial scale of this transformation is astonishing, with listed mining companies signing contracts人工智能公司 Genius Group (GNS.US) 战略重心转向重新建立比特币现金储备，拟通过发行证券重启储备计划 首期融资细节显示，该公司计划发行价值 1250 万美元的永续优先股。此类证券不可转换，不稀释普通股股权，风险由优先股承担。持有者享有每月股息及清算分配权，权益优于普通股东。Woofun AI 整理数据显示，该结构设计旨在避免立即导致普通股稀释，但具体资金成本待定 从长期目标看，Genius Group (GNS.US) 预计至 2031 财年储备规模将达 8.27 亿美元。首期募资仅覆盖目标的 1.51%，剩余 8.145 亿美元缺口需通过后续融资填补，以达成总储备目标。巨额差距意味着单一融资无法解决问题，后续压力显著 填补资金缺口需依赖多次发行优先股或其他融资方式，规模远超初始额度。每轮规模取决于投资者需求。关键文件将披露具体利率、价格、募资规模及资金分配方案，而非仅公布上限规定上一季度，比特币自高点回落逾 50% 时，我曾提出，熊市不是系统缺陷，而是比特币早期采用过程的一部分。今年年初，我又解释了比特币为何可能在 2036 年达到 1100 万美元 我依然认为这一情景有可能出现，但更值得追问的是：要走到那一步，比特币将经历怎样的路径？ 比特币早期周期曾出现百倍涨幅，近几轮周期的收益则明显收窄。如果这一趋势不断延续，比特币最终会越来越像一种成熟资产，收益也将逐渐趋于常态 幂律模型很好地概括了这种变化。（指比特币价格与时间之间长期呈现相对稳定的幂函数关系）随着资产体量扩大，其收益也逐渐下降。过去十多年，比特币一直沿着一条高度稳定的长期轨迹运行 我认可幂律框架的解释力，也认为比特币未来多年仍可能大致沿着这条轨迹运行。但我不再确信，幂律足以描述比特币的终局 比特币走向成熟的过程中，收益在下降，波动率也在下降。波动率下降不仅会改变比特币所能吸纳的资金规模，也会拓展它在金融体系中的用途 更低的波动率会改善比特币的风险调整后收益，也让以比特币为抵押进行融资变得更容易。当比特币成为全球金融体系中的优质抵押品，以其为抵押的美元信贷规模可能大幅扩张 收益递减压低波动率，波动率下根据 Lookonchain 的火眼金睛，这家平时只进不出的铁头功公司，竟然在短短 24 小时 内，向交易所存入了整整 3,000 枚 BTC，价值约 $2.37 亿。你要知道，币圈有个雷打不动的公理：币提往冷钱包是真爱，币存进交易所……那大概率就是要把你当成流动性给办了。
首先是信仰崩塌的风险。Metaplanet 之前的形象一直是就算日元崩了我也要买大饼的死忠粉，这次突然大手笔搬砖进场，市场第一反应就是：“坏了，连浓眉大眼的他也憋不住要出货了？” 这种心理预期一旦发酵，很容易引发散户的踩踏式抛售。
其次是资金面的实际压力。$2.37 亿 的现货抛压一旦释放，盘面短线肯定要打个寒颤。尤其是在当前流动性并不算宽裕的情况下，这 3000 枚大饼要是砸下来，足以在 BTC 的日线图上画出一根难看的避雷针。
目前市场正处于高度敏感期，大家的神经比拉满的弓弦还紧。我个人的预期是，Metaplanet 这波操作大概率不是为了清仓跑路（毕竟他们刚建立起的机构信誉没那么廉价），更有可能是在做套期保值或者利用这笔 BTC 作为抵押物进行融资/杠杆操作。
但不管他们的动机多纯洁，币进所”这个动作Recently, it has become quite clear that BTC and gold are moving more and more in sync, no longer with BTC simply following the risk sentiment of the US stock market as before.
I think the simultaneous rise of both is more about changes in capital allocation logic.
Now institutional funds not only buy gold for hedging but also treat BTC as a digital version of a scarce asset to allocate together. The continuous net inflows into ETFs show this; the rise is not purely driven by risk-averse panic.
Previously, BTC was more of a high-risk speculative asset, with its price swings depending entirely on market risk appetite. Now, with increased macro uncertainty, some funds classify it alongside gold as an inflation hedge and a way to offset fiat currency risk, so the correlation between the two has significantly increased.
From a practical crypto trading perspective, this change is worth noting. Going forward, trading should not only focus on the crypto market itself; fluctuations in gold, the US dollar, and US Treasury bonds will have a greater impact on BTC. If gold weakens, BTC can easily be dragged down as well. Leverage at high levels must be reduced; don’t blindly bet on a one-sided breakout. When macro conditions shift, market volatility can come suddenly. $BTC $XAU #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
This is purely personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.$SNDK has many fans who knew there would be a crash on Friday but didn't know the reason $MU
Last night, Western Digital, Micron, and SanDisk all dropped more than 2%.
First blow: The Fed turned hawkish, the probability of a rate hike soared, and high-valuation tech stocks got scared.
Second blow: Nvidia's earnings exploded, soaring 8%, with funds frantically pulling out of storage to chase it.
Third blow: Storage itself surged too much (SanDisk up 460% in a year), earnings guidance missed expectations, triggering profit-taking and a stampede to exit.
With these three arrows fired simultaneously, a crash was inevitable! #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK SK Hynix $xSKHY Roller Coaster Ride: AI Storage Logic Intact, But Short-Term Overheating Requires Caution
Let's talk about the US stock market. SK Hynix (SKHY) experienced a roller coaster today: it dropped 5% intraday, then turned positive in the afternoon, rising 0.56% to 2,618,000 KRW, still far below the peak of 3,000,000 KRW on August 23. The Korean stock market was even worse on August 28, with KOSPI down 1.79%, Samsung Electronics down 3.38%, SK Hynix down 4.45%, as semiconductor stocks collectively took profits.
The logic remains unchanged: AI's demand for HBM is still very strong, and SK Hynix holds over 60% of the global HBM market share, dominating the market. However, the surge has been too steep; from the beginning of the year to June, semiconductors have risen cumulatively by 226%, with concentration levels exaggerated, prompting brokers to start warning of "overheating."
My judgment: The long-term AI storage trend is not over yet, but short-term volatility will increase. Rumors of hyperscalers cutting capital expenditures are the biggest risk. I am holding my position and will add more when the price pulls back to a reasonable valuation. Don't chase at the peak of emotions; this kind of stock is known to humble all skeptics.Panic as BTC falls below 80,000.
Few have noticed that traditional brokerages have quietly accelerated their deployments.
⚡️Charles Schwab has already left all its peers behind.
In May, they launched BTC and ETH spot trading.
At that time, the market consensus was:
Established brokerages were just testing the waters.
Only three months have passed.
On August 27, they officially announced the addition of SOL, AVAX, and $LINK trading.
Don't simply think of it as "adding 3 more coins."
✅SOL and AVAX: mainstream Layer 1 public blockchains representing complete ecosystems
✅LINK: foundational oracle infrastructure in the crypto world
This represents a generational upgrade in institutional allocation logic:
From "just buying some crypto assets"
to "starting to allocate a complete crypto ecosystem."
The market has already responded:
$SOL surged 12.9% in a single day, with a weekly increase exceeding 23%
The US spot Solana ETF has seen cumulative net inflows surpass 1.22 billion USD
Keep in mind, Charles Schwab's custodial assets scale up to 13 trillion USD.
The gap compared to peers is very clear:
Vanguard Group outright rejected crypto assets two years ago and has only just started allowing crypto ETFs;
Fidelity started early but still has a relatively slow pace in opening spot trading to retail investors.
While others are still debating whether to enter the market,
Charles Schwab is already planning a crypto asset allocation pool.
Industry data:
Globally, traditional finance's overall allocation to crypto assets is still less than 1%.
There is huge room for growth, and some have already taken the lead. Cathie Wood has stayed incredibly bullish on Bitcoin.
Her latest five-year outlook still puts BTC at $1.25 million in her bull case, with $750,000 as the more conservative case.
You don't have to agree with the target to understand the bigger point.
Institutional adoption is still in its early stages.
$BTC #财报观察员：AI demand extends to storage and software
Recently, there has been a very clear change in the AI market: Nvidia continues to sell GPUs, HBM is starting to be out of stock, and software companies like Salesforce are beginning to realize AI revenue.
So I think the next phase should not only focus on "computing power" but also on what underlying software AI truly needs once it is implemented.
This is also why I have been paying attention to $BB. BB is no longer just a phone company. QNX is already running on over 275 million vehicles worldwide; essentially, it is a real-time operating system aimed at automotive, robotics, medical, industrial, and aerospace sectors.
AI models are responsible for "thinking," but when Physical AI actually controls car steering, robot movements, or medical devices, the system must be:
real-time, stable, secure, and must not crash arbitrarily. This is exactly where QNX fits in.
And BB is not just about QNX. Another segment, Secure Communications, continues to serve governments and critical infrastructure. BlackBerry's current products have obtained security certifications including NATO and FedRAMP High.
So my current logic for BB is very simple: GPUs and HBM cover the first phase of AI infrastructure, while foundational software like QNX may cover the next phase where Physical AI is truly implemented.
BB's next earnings report is expected on September 24, and I will focus on QNX's growth.Charles Schwab plans to open spot trading of $SOL, $AVAX, and $LINK to its 39.9 million accounts within the next few months. Charles Schwab is a major player in traditional retail capital. Ajian believes this marks the institutionalization endpoint for Layer 1, because Schwab's entry means the liquidity depth of these tokens will enter the tens of millions of accounts era. Their pricing logic will shift from community consensus to portfolio allocation, and a slow bull market is about to begin.
Of course, on the other hand, Schwab's trading commission is 75 basis points, much higher than on-chain or professional exchanges. Its entry is more for convenient portfolio allocation rather than active trading; its significance lies not in how high the premium might be around the official launch, but in the final confirmation of the asset attributes of these tokens. #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Trump Digital Gold ($GOLD) 骗局执行方已在 2 小时前卖出手上全部 82.454% 的 GOLD 代币，总共获利 9,784.6 枚 SOL (101 万美元) GOLD 在今天早上 7:38 在 Solana 上创建，骗局执行方通过分配跟上线后买入，总共控制了 82.454% (8.2454 亿枚) 的代币 9 点左右，特朗普关注账号realtrumpcoins（特朗普周边商品合作账号）发布包含代币地址的推文。GOLD 价格迅速攀升，市值最高到达 6600 万美元 推文于 11:48 被删，骗局执行方地址同步开始抛售 30 秒时间内，市值从 5500 万美元跌到 100 万美元。被吸引进场的投资者全部被套。骗局执行方继续抛售，最终在下午 2 点左右把 82.454% 的代币全部卖出，换得 9,784.6 枚 SOL (101 万美元) GOLD 代币市值也跌到 70 万美元，跌去了 99%Viewing On-Exchange Buyer Momentum Intensity from SVD Data
The chart below shows the 24-hour average SVD (Spot Volume Delta) data for Binance and Coinbase; that is, the taker's transaction difference, where positive indicates buyer dominance and negative indicates seller dominance.
From the data, since the market started on August 19, Coinbase's SVD has remained positive, but the three peaks I circled are consecutively decreasing.
This reflects a stepwise weakening of active buying strength, a typical volume-price divergence.
Binance also shows decreasing peaks, and after August 26, it overall turned negative, marking the deepest seller dominance of the entire month.
This can be interpreted on two levels:
🚩 Seller dominance without price decline may rely on passive limit orders or ETF primary market absorption that is not reflected in taker data.
If subsequent selling pressure gradually exhausts, essentially the chips are transferring from short-term profit-taking to demand-side holders, which is a digestion process.
🚩 It can be seen that market sentiment has shifted from broad chasing before and around August 20 to a high-level divergence phase, with upward momentum entering a decay period.
Looking only at active buying, given the current situation, continuing a large-scale rally would be quite difficult.
For a secondary upward attack to occur, selling pressure must be fully digested, or external forces must again catalyze market sentiment.About to cry, is $TRUMP really going to be targeted by regulators this time?😭
Brothers, here comes a regulatory message that’s easy to be overshadowed by market fluctuations.
The California legislature has officially passed AB 2409.
Two core rules:
🔹Restrict public officials from issuing Meme coins
🔹From 2027-01-01, impose restrictions on trading services for tokens related to political figures
At first glance, it’s a bit unsettling.
Isn’t this precisely aimed at the political Meme coin sector?
Looking back at $TRUMP, its valuation logic is very special.
It has no technical narrative, no ecosystem revenue.
All its value relies on Trump’s super IP, political heat, and market sentiment speculation.
The past play was simple: political traffic could wildly push the price up.
But now the regulatory hand directly reaches the issuance and trading ends.
If California is the start, and other US states follow suit one after another,
then the impact won’t be limited to just Trump coin.
The entire political Meme coin sector’s survival space will be greatly compressed.
This raises a soul-searching question:
The US verbally proclaims embracing crypto innovation,
but what is it really embracing?
Compliant digital assets,
or these meme tokens tied to politicians’ identities and pure traffic speculation?
In the short term, the law takes effect next year, so there’s still a buffer period;
but the deterrent effect of the regulatory signal has already been sent to the market.
The bubble inflated by political IP speculation may face the Damocles sword of policy at any time in the future. ⚡️Signal overshadowed by the pullback: Charles Schwab leaves all traditional brokers behind
BTC and ETH launched in May, everyone thought it was just testing the waters.
Three months later, SOL, AVAX, and LINK were directly added.
From trading the two major blue chips to incorporating public chain ecosystems and on-chain infrastructure.
It's not just adding 3 more coins; it's an upgrade in institutional allocation logic.
SOL surged 12.9% in a single day, with a weekly increase of over 23%, and spot SOL-ETF net inflows exceeded $1.22 billion.
The $13 trillion asset management giant moves much faster than Fidelity and Vanguard.
Traditional finance's crypto allocation is less than 1%, and a huge incremental space is starting to open.
An announcement is the starting gun for traditional finance entering the market.
Short-term fluctuations are influenced by Federal Reserve liquidity, but the long-term allocation trend remains unchanged.
Market notes, not trading advice.🧵Charles Schwab has taken a step that puts it ahead of all traditional brokers
Many people are focused on hawkish speeches by Powell and panic as BTC falls below 80,000.
But they miss a key signal that determines the long-term narrative.
Charles Schwab Wealth Management has already outperformed its peers by a large margin.
In May, Charles Schwab launched BTC and ETH spot trading.
At that time, the market consensus was: just testing the waters.
The official statement was also very conservative: giving clients a chance to access digital assets.
Test the waters, and if it doesn't work, withdraw.
Only three months later.
On August 27, an announcement: added SOL, AVAX, and $LINK spot trading.
Look closely at the new listings:
✅SOL, AVAX: complete Layer 1 public chain ecosystems
✅LINK: foundational oracle infrastructure in the crypto world
Do you see the difference?
Before: buy some crypto assets to play with.
Now: allocate a whole crypto ecosystem.
It's not just adding 3 tokens; it's a generational leap in institutional understanding.
The market immediately responded:
SOL +12.9% in a single day, LINK +5.5%, AVAX +3.6%
SOL once surged above $109, with a weekly increase of over 23%
US spot SOL-ETF net inflows exceeded $1.22 billion
Charles Schwab, a financial giant with $13 trillion in custody assets.
In three months, the trading list expanded from 2 to 5, covering public chains and foundational infrastructure.
Can this still be called just testing the waters? #沃什 emphasizes inflation risks, September rate hike expectations heat up
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Last night at Jackson Hole,沃什 made it clear: inflation above 2% is not temporary, financial conditions are not really tight, and the Federal Reserve "still has work to do."
I didn't hear "definitely hiking in September," but he really brought the rate hike back from the trash to the table — CME probability jumped from 35% to around 60%, 2Y US Treasuries surged, gold reversed, and the market is already repricing for "higher for longer."
From a mid-term perspective, this is a shift in expectation management: no commitment to hike, but leaving the window open. Before September 16, there are still August CPI and nonfarm payrolls; if the data sticks a bit, the Fed will sound the horn.
My current judgment — the odds of a September hike are fifty-fifty, but the probability of at least one hike this year is worth watching; avoid being naked long on equities, the dollar is relatively strong, precious metals are under short-term pressure, wait for CPI to give direction before adjusting positions, but I am mid-term haha!!!
$BTC
$ETH
$SNDK $HYPE HYPE **$81.30**, down nearly 3% in 24h, retraced $5.4 from the ATH of $86.7. Today unlocked 14.18 million tokens — **$1.2 billion**, the largest single unlock since launch.
46.6% went to insiders, this is the real risk. In the previous four unlocks, three times the price dropped, but this time the insider proportion is much higher than the August unlock (which actually only received $22.65 million). The market has already priced in part of this, $78 held and did not crash.
Good news: whales withdrew $14.83 million HYPE from Coinbase in two weeks, Bitwise ETF pledged $74.9 million, AQAv2 buyback engine is running. Short interest open interest is $1.95 billion, funding rate is negative — once it reverses, it will force a short squeeze.
**Be cautious short-term, $81.30**. Support at $78-80 → $73-75 → $68. Resistance at $84 → $86.7 → $92. $78 is the lifeline between bulls and bears; if it holds, expect a rebound, if broken, avoid touching it. $BTC BTC is currently ranging between 77,700–78,000, staying flat for a day (8/29 Asia-Europe session, range 76,847–78,600). The Wash Eagle framework plus 6.4 billion options have been unloaded. The weekend evening session is thin with no new macro data. There will be movement, but most likely it will be a false breakout spike, not a real directional choice.
Why will it move tonight?
Weekend liquidity is thin: US stocks/ETFs are closed, order books are thin, algorithms and speculative funds like to sweep orders between 22:00–02:00 UTC, so ±1.5% spikes are normal.
Options magnetism disappears: 80K Call is worthless, 75K Call is in the money, market makers no longer peg prices, price freedom is high, so a rebound to 79,200 or a break below 76,900 can easily be triggered.
Positions are not fully cleared: Open Interest remains high, funding rate +0.01%, neither bulls nor bears have conceded, so there must be a spike at the end of the sideways range.
No new catalysts: No US data or official speeches tonight, movements are driven by technical and leveraged positions, not trend-driven.
Two possible moves tonight:
Up spike 78,600–79,200: If it touches the 4h breakout zone, it will be smashed, but 79,300 means no bullish recognition, a zone to reduce positions on rallies.
Down spike 76,900–76,847: If it sweeps 76,800 but does not close below, it’s a stop-loss hunt; only if it closes below will 75,800 (the true market average) be considered.
Summary:
A day of sideways is not a bottoming, but a sharpening before the weekend cut. There will be spikes tonight, but the true direction after the Wash will be determined only after the 9/16 FOMC PCE data.
Holding 77K sideways = continuation of shakeout; failure to reclaim 76,847 = test 75.8K; failure to hold 79,300 = continued pressure below 80K. $BTC Is the crypto market calm during the US stock market weekend closure?
Many people have a misconception that when the US stock market is closed and spot ETFs cannot be traded, the crypto market remains uneventful over the weekend. The reality is quite the opposite. While US institutional investors rest, BTC and ETH continue to operate around the clock, but market liquidity significantly contracts, and order book depth thins considerably.
A drop in trading volume does not mean volatility will subside. In a low-liquidity environment, it takes relatively little capital to quickly break support or challenge resistance levels, triggering mass stop-loss orders—commonly referred to as liquidity sweeps.
Without ETF institutional buying as a buffer, weekend price action is mainly driven by whales, futures traders, and retail investors, which greatly increases price randomness.
In the absence of breaking news, prices mostly remain range-bound with limited trend continuation. However, any sudden regulatory or geopolitical news can amplify price swings due to the thin order book, often causing gaps at Monday’s open.
Practical advice: try to avoid heavy positions and high leverage trades over the weekend.
Support and resistance levels lose much of their reliability; don’t blindly enter positions based on false breakouts caused by spikes. It’s unnecessary to bet on a quiet weekend market—better to trade less than to stubbornly bear risk.
Trends with real reference value usually become clearer only after the US stock market opens on Monday and ETF funds return to the market.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Charles Schwab adding SOL, AVAX, and LINK to crypto accounts this time, what I really think is worth paying attention to is not "just adding three more coins." I just looked through some discussions, and some people on X are already shouting that traditional funds are coming, but I don't think there's any need to get so excited. Charles Schwab giving you an entry point to buy coins and 39 million accounts actually starting to buy coins are two completely different things. This distinction must bThe Trump Digital Gold ($GOLD) scam operator sold all 82.454% of the GOLD tokens they held 2 hours ago, making a total profit of 9,784.6 SOL ($1.01 million).
1. The token was created on Solana at 7:38 this morning. The scam operator controlled 82.454% (824.54 million tokens) by allocation and subsequent purchases after launch.
2. At 9:00, the Trump-related account realtrumpcoins (Trump merchandise partner account) posted a tweet containing the token address. GOLD's price quickly surged, reaching a peak market cap of $66M.
3. At 11:48, the tweet was deleted, and the scam operator's address began selling off tokens simultaneously. Within 30 seconds, the market cap plummeted from $55M to $1M. All investors who were attracted to enter the market were trapped.
4. The scam operator continued selling and by 2 PM had sold all 82.454% of the tokens, exchanging them for 9,784.6 SOL ($1.01 million). The GOLD token market cap also fell to $0.7M, a 99% drop.THE HAWKISH MACRO SHOCK HAS BEEN PRICED IN, NOW COMES THE REAL TEST Bitcoin's latest move is a good reminder that crypto can change direction quickly when macro expectations shift. The market was pushing higher, then the Jackson Hole speech changed the tone. Risk assets sold off, leverage was flushed, and Bitcoin dropped sharply from the upper levels toward the $77K region. The important part now isn't simply the size of the decline. It's what happens after the liquidation wave. Nearly $474M in $TRUMP 今天又拉了一波，最高摸到3.034，目前在3.00附近，涨幅接近10%，成交额直接干到11亿以上。 马上迎来中期选举，大家对这个币的关注度也是尤为高昂 K线上看，短线拉得相当凶，RSI已经到71，有点过热的意思。 但均线还在向上支撑，结构暂时没坏。 数据方面变化很明显。 持仓量在最近几个小时出现了明显加速抬升，名义价值往上冲得比较坚决。 说明确实有真金白银在进场，不是纯情绪。 但多空账户比却掉得很快，从相对高位一路往下砸到1.23附近。 价格在涨，空头账户比例在快速增加。 一边资金在推，一边空头在进场埋雷，这个背离现在已经比较清晰了。 再加上熬鹰资本在推特上喊了这个币，短线关注度肯定还会再上一个台阶。 这种有大V带动的币，情绪容易被放大，上涨可以很猛，回撤也可以很快。 短期动能还在，持仓量也在抬，继续往上冲一段不是没可能。 但当前位置RSI已经偏高，空头又在明显增加，追高的风险已经不小了。 更稳妥的做法是等它回踩一下，或者看持仓量能不能继续稳住在高位。 如果持仓量开始掉头、多空比继续往极端空头走，那回调的速度可能会比较快。 这种被喊单+高关注度的币，机会有，但波动也会被$TRUMP Brothers, the short position on Trump Coin has already been entered.
500U, 25x leverage, it has already been announced in the group.
Essentially, it's a capital politician cash-out coin. The Trump Coin Twitter account posted news about a new coin called "Trump Digital Gold." One moment the market cap was as high as 600 million USD, and within a minute it dropped directly to 10 million USD. Wow, even a pig-butchering scam wouldn't be this fierce.
Negative news keeps coming one after another.
Public Citizen just released a report stating that Trump-related crypto projects have caused investors to lose at least 4.7 billion USD, with TRUMP alone accounting for 3.2 billion. Out of 1.6 million wallets, 1 million are losing money.
The team itself is also running. On August 26, associated wallets withdrew 3.39 million USDC from the Solana liquidity pool, and TRUMP dropped 8% that day. Previously, insiders were exposed for selling 17.25 million TRUMP within a month, cashing out 57 million USD.
On September 18, another 28.7 million coins are set to unlock, which is just one of 34 unlocking plans scheduled through 2027. There will be a continuous stream of tokens coming out.
So, whether short-term or long-term, Brother Qiang is not optimistic. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 The recent stress around Aave is a good reminder that DeFi doesn't need a market crash to experience serious liquidation pressure. ETH only moved within a relatively narrow range, yet liquidation activity accelerated sharply as leveraged positions built around long-tail collateral began reaching their thresholds. That's the part many traders underestimate. The danger isn't simply leverage. It's leverage becoming concentrated in the same direction, against assets with limited liquidity. Once pricMy damn enlightened mouth, Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting yesterday clearly pointed out that inflation is still above the 2% target, and the Fed's current primary focus must be price stability. The extremely hawkish tone directly extinguished the market's fantasy of a rate cut in September. Risk assets like $BTC and $XAU fell in response; the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September surged sharply to about 57%; the 2-year US Treasury yield rose about 12.4 basis points.
It seems the era of cash is still king has not passed; the market is shifting from betting on rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes. This sharp reversal in expectations is also a trigger for liquidity stampedes. If Warsh insists on not stopping until 2% is reached, then for the rest of 2026, the valuation repair of risk assets will be very painful. Ordinary traders should avoid opening high leverage positions during such volatile expectations. The current market pricing is extremely unstable, and any data disturbance will result in two-way harvesting.
Finally, Warsh mentioned AI's productivity improvements, which may be his only chip to prevent a hard economic landing while maintaining high interest rates in the future. If the productivity gains from AI cannot cover debt interest expenses, then Warsh's rate hikes will be suicidal #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 The hot topics can be summarized into four points: first, whether macro devaluation trading will continue; second, whether ETF funds will spread from Bitcoin to ETH and even SOL; third, the pace of regulatory bill advancement; fourth, the short-term rotation between meme and privacy narratives. Funds are clearly "picky"—assets with real protocol revenue, buyback mechanisms, or clear catalysts are more likely to receive overflow capital, while pure trend-chasing altcoins are unlikely to experience a broad rally like in 2017 or 2021. Wash put on another show at Jackson Hole this time.
He said no forward guidance, but with just one sentence—"inflation hasn't come down enough, there's still work to do"—the market raised the odds of a September rate hike from 30% to around 50% on its own.
Classic Wash style—no roadmap, but leaving the door wider open than you expect.
To be clear, September isn't decided yet; it depends on the upcoming jobs report and CPI.
If employment worsens again, that 50% will quickly be pushed back; if prices stick around a bit more, a rate hike could really come into play.
He doesn't set the tone, the data does.
In the short term, don't treat the speech as policy—wait for the two data releases first.
$BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Yesterday after Wash spoke, BTC and ETH feinted between 22:30 and 23:00. Then from 23:00 to 23:30, they moved sideways before starting to drop.
Now reviewing, I still have a few gaps in understanding:
1. After Wash's speech, the probability of a rate hike immediately rose from 29% to 55%, with hawkish remarks directly reflected in the data. This was the first signal not to go long. However, the 30-minute chart showed the opposite, causing confusion. The reason is that many people missed the move, leading to anxious sentiment that masked the bearish news initially.
2. The market phase is from the main uptrend completion to the end of consolidation, facing a directional choice.
This is the summary of the market phase.
If there had been no speech, could one have gone long here?
The daily chart is at an absolute high, the 4-hour chart is still high, so going long is temporarily not advisable. One can only wait and watch or wait for the speech to end and a direction to emerge before deciding...
The first problem was my wishful thinking; the second was that I knew but did not trust myself.Charles Schwab adding SOL, AVAX, and LINK to crypto accounts this time, what I really think is worth paying attention to is not "just adding three more coins."
I just looked through some discussions, and some people on X are already shouting that traditional funds are coming, but I don't think there's any need to get so excited. Charles Schwab giving you an entry point to buy coins and 39 million accounts actually starting to buy coins are two completely different things. This distinction must be made; otherwise, seeing a brokerage add coins and immediately calculating capital inflow is a bit too much wishful thinking.
But I am indeed somewhat optimistic about the direction.
If I had to pick one among these three, I would still choose SOL. The reason isn't complicated: recognition, liquidity, ecosystem—all these factors are right there. When traditional investors first encounter these assets, SOL might be the easiest to catch their attention.
I actually think LINK is a different kind of play. It's not purely betting on a particular public chain but betting that traditional finance will really start to heavily use on-chain infrastructure in the future. If this logic gradually materializes, the potential is actually quite large.
AVAX is the one I would observe first.
So the real signal Charles Schwab is sending out this time, I think, is not "SOL, AVAX, LINK are about to surge," but that previously traditional investors who wanted to buy coins had to go through the hassle of exchanges, and now they might be able to allocate some directly in their brokerage accounts.
At the end of the day, what the crypto world has always lacked is not just assets but entry points.
And now, entry points are really starting to open one by one.
As for whether more capital will really come in, time will tell.
$SOL $AVAX $LINK #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK $BEAT BEAT 暴跌后为何突然暴涨19%？用数据说清楚，反弹还能走多远 凌晨盯盘看到 BEAT 这根大阳线，直接 +19.31%，从最低 0.1212 一路拉回 0.1558。很多合约朋友在问：这个新币种跌成这样，为什么突然弹起来？到底是不是反转？ 先别急着追，我用图上的真实数据给你拆干净。 一、它到底跌了多少？数据触目惊心 先看日线图这组残酷的数字（截至今日截图）： - 30日跌幅：-96.01%，对应30天前价格约 3.90美元 - 90日跌幅：-86.68%，对应约 1.17美元 - 日线图历史低点一度打到 0.1110，而历史高位在 10美元 量级 也就是说，这个币在短短一个月内，把前期炒作涨幅几乎全部跌了回去。30个交易日蒸发96%，这就是典型的新币种"拉高—解锁—崩塌"剧本。 暴跌的直接导火索也很明确：8月1日大规模代币解锁，释放约2125万枚代币（约占流通量7%），解锁抛压叠加前期杠杆仓位踩踏，行情一泻千里。 二、为什么现在能反弹？三个硬数据支撑 1、严重超跌，抛压阶段性出清 从 3.9 美元跌到 0.1110，跌幅接近97%，能割的浮筹基本割完，继续往下的卖出动The reported end of Advent and Stripe's PayPal talks matters less as a failed transaction than as a valuation signal. A rumored price above $50B could not bridge the gap, while PayPal's roughly 17% premarket drop shows how much takeover optionality had entered the market's framing.
The strategic logic was credible: consumer reach, merchant scale and developer infrastructure. But if funding, regulation and price cannot align, payments consolidation may remain more compelling on paper than executable in practice. None of the parties has confirmed the details.
Not advice, just analysis.
#StripeExitsPayPalBid🇯🇵 YEN CARRY TRADE CÓ THỂ TRỞ LẠI ÁM ẢNH CRYPTO – BTC CÒN ĐỨNG VỮNG, NHƯNG MEME 🐸 CÓ THỂ LÀ NƠI BỊ XẢ ĐẦU TIÊN? Có một rủi ro mình nghĩ trader crypto không nên chỉ nhìn Fed mà bỏ qua: YEN CARRY TRADE. Đây từng là một trong những nguồn thanh khoản rẻ lớn nhất của thị trường toàn cầu. Cơ chế rất đơn giản: Vay JPY với chi phí thấp. Đổi sang USD hoặc các đồng tiền khác. Sau đó mua: Stocks. Bonds. Tech. Crypto. High-beta assets. Miễn là: Yen yếu + BOJ giữ rate thấp + volatility thấp thì trade này Recently, OKX's market fluctuations have been quite "generous" 😂
I haven't started my BTC dollar-cost averaging plan this week yet. The market sentiment is noticeably more cautious than a few days ago. After BTC surged to around $81,455, it quickly pulled back and is now hovering around $77,500, down about 3% in the last 24 hours.
An important factor behind this correction is the latest hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Expectations for further tightening in September have increased, strengthening the dollar and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, which has put pressure on risk assets.
Interestingly, BTC had previously strengthened alongside gold, with the market viewing them as assets to hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation risks; however, with renewed rate hike expectations, short-term volatility has clearly increased. Recently, inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs have also noticeably warmed up, totaling about $2.5 billion over the past seven trading days.
So, rather than rushing to judge whether the next move will be up or down, it's better to continue observing price performance around $77,000, the dollar's trend, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCryptoHonestly, a week ago I still thought it was just an oversold rebound, a short squeeze. But watching the market evolve these past few days, I've completely overturned my previous judgment—the bottom structure of a major bull market has already formed.
What confirms the trend even more is the unusual activity on the ETF side. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with over $3 billion inflow in August, making it the strongest month since 2026. BlackRock's IBIT attracted $277 million in a single day, ranking first, and the total assets of Bitcoin spot ETFs have surpassed $100 billion. These institutions are not here to "speculate," they are here to "allocate"—buying with real capital.
Objectively speaking, this round is different from previous years; there is no broad frenzy bull market. It's more a resonance of macro liquidity expectations, regulatory framework progress, ETF funds, and short covering. It's only a matter of time before Bitcoin hits new highs, and ETH's catch-up potential is equally worth looking forward to.
Of course, the higher it goes, the more you need to stay clear-headed. The core focus ahead is on the final Senate vote on the CLARITY Act in September and whether ETF inflows can maintain their pace. As long as these two main lines hold, the trend won't end easily.
To my short-selling brothers, be careful. This wave is really serious this time.Something interesting is happening across markets. Bitcoin and gold are starting to move together again — not because traders suddenly became bullish on risk, but because the dollar/liquidity narrative is changing. Treasury buybacks, weaker USD expectations and rising concerns around long-term U.S. debt are pushing capital toward assets with limited supply. That explains why BTC pushed above $80K while gold moved toward $4,700. The key signal isn’t the price move itself. It’s the capital rotatioONDO's proposal to burn 100 million tokens and the $4 billion TVL form a deflationary game, with the core conflict lying in the timing of position battles before the positive news is realized and the transmission of macro hedging pressure.
The protocol holds over 70% market share in tokenized stocks, with TVL surpassing $4 billion, placing its fundamental capital absorption strength at the forefront of the sector. The latest governance proposal plans to permanently burn 100 million tokens, aiming to tighten inflation expectations by locking up part of the supply.
The current market drivers, in order of influence, are: deflationary pricing based on the progress of the burn proposal, the efficiency of macro risk appetite transmission to on-chain RWA, and the stability of the $4 billion liquidity pool's flow.
The bullish scenario triggers if the 100 million token burn proposal passes seamlessly and execution begins. Deflation expectations will prompt the secondary market to preemptively price in supply contraction. Coupled with the 70% market share in tokenized stocks, capital will shift from wait-and-see to net inflow, and $ONDO will naturally start valuation repair.
The bearish scenario triggers if governance processes are delayed or execution details fall short of expectations. Event-driven capital will then directly turn into distribution pressure suppressing positive news realization; if the US stock market simultaneously experiences a macro pullback, risk-off sentiment transmission will suppress RWA sector flow, inducing long position liquidations.
A signal that the above scenarios fail is when market risk-off sentiment dominates comprehensively. Once traditional market liquidity tightens causing on-chain US stock funds to withdraw, the deflation expectation of 100 million tokens will not fully offset the selling pressure from position liquidations.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the governance voting progress of the 100 million token burn proposal and the net increase or decrease of the $4 billion TVL.
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温📰 【Avici Responds to Theft: 1,685 Users Affected, Full Refunds to Be Issued】
BlockBeats reports that on August 29, Avici announced that its card issuing partner Rain discovered a vulnerability today in an old version of the Solana card contract used by Avici and a few other projects. The relevant contracts have now been upgraded across all projects, and no further unauthorized activity has been detected. Avici stated that this incident only affected the independent Solana contract used to store the card balance after recharge. Users' Avici wallets and card balances are isolated from each other, and funds in Solana and EVM self-custody wallets remain safe and unaffected. Current checks show that a total of 1,685 users were affected, involving a total card balance of approximately 5...
The most noteworthy aspect of this Avici incident is not the vulnerability itself, but the risk design of the "contract-custodied balance" model. While isolating wallet and card balances is indeed a good practice, having the card balance in an independent contract essentially means entrusting the funds to the project party for custody. If the partner has a vulnerability, users are still passively affected. The attitude of full refunds is acceptable, but it would be more interesting to see whether the team is covering this amount or if it comes from an insurance fund, as this will determine whether the project will face liquidity issues later. Do you think the project team should also publish the open-source audit results of the card contract? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $XRP The current BTC situation is very clear: the direction is the repair wave since 62,000 not broken, with the densest "unblocking wall" of chips piled between 80,000-82,000 across the entire market (ETF costs are also here). If the main force directly pulls hard, it’s just carrying others. So the play rhythm chosen is the "most human" one—after rushing to 81,000 without sideways movement, leveraging the hawkish Jackson Hole signal + quarterly settlement, smashing through 77,000 with a 24-hour wick, short-term longs explode and then close. The more the news diverges (rate cut expectations repriced to "higher for longer"), the more urgent and ugly the move, the weaker the paper hands hold. This is exactly like the false break below 62,000: history repeats not the price, but the rhythm of "fall first 📉 then pull".
$BTC $ETH $SOL