Last night the market experienced a "fire and ice" scenario.
Federal Reserve Chair Wash dropped a hawkish bomb at Jackson Hole — inflation is still too high, "there's more work to do."
The market instantly turned. The probability of a September rate hike soared from 35.4% to 55.7%.
Bitcoin plunged from a high of $81,455 to $76,877, a single-day drop of 3.39%.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated $481 million — of which $360 million were long positions. Leveraged players got wiped out in one wave.
The candlesticks are all red, retail investors are cutting losses, and the chat groups are full of complaints.
But on the other side, the picture is completely different.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, totaling $2.8 billion. August's cumulative inflows exceeded $3 billion, the strongest month since 2026, about twice that of April.
BlackRock's IBIT alone took in $2.02 billion, accounting for 72% of total inflows.
ETFs are buying while prices are falling.
This is not a market failure — someone is picking up chips at a discount.
Who is selling? Leveraged longs are being liquidated, short-term traders are taking profits at the 81K resistance zone.
Who is buying? Institutions are building positions through ETFs on dips. Eight consecutive days of inflows is no coincidence; it's a planned layout.
This is a classic "strong hands buying from weak hands" scenario — retail panics and cuts losses, institutions calmly accumulate.
In Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, the same divergence appeared, followed by a mid-term upward trend.
Institutions are not here to do charity — they are here to bottom-fish.
Predictive market data shows traders currently bet on a 77% probability that Bitcoin will reach $84,000, and only a 23% chance it will fall to $55,000.
If you only watch the candlesticks, you see panic.
If you watch the capital flows, you see the layout.
$BTC$ETH$SOL#沃什强调通胀风险,9月加息预期升温
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