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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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昨天我说“81k突破在即”,然后沃什就给了我一记鹰派耳光 昨晚我在群里喊“81k突破在即”。 然后沃什上台了。 比特币从81,455美元直接砸到76,877美元。24小时全市场爆仓4.52亿美元,多单爆了3.6亿。9.4万人一夜归零。 市场永远是对的。我错了。 认错,但不翻空。 说说我为什么错,以及接下来怎么看。 错在哪? 我此前的判断基础是:ETF持续流入 > 宏观噪音。 美国现货比特币ETF连续9天净流入超30亿美元。贝莱德IBIT一个人扛了20亿。8月是2026年以来ETF流入最强月份。 我以为这种级别的资金面能扛住一切。 但沃什证明了——宏观仍然是短期老大。 他在杰克逊霍尔说了什么?通篇没提“加息”两个字。但市场自己把自己吓坏了——9月加息概率从35%直接跳到60%。 为什么?因为他拆了美联储的前瞻指引。以前美联储告诉你“通胀不到2%我不加息”,市场踏实定价。现在沃什说“我承诺的是纪律,不是决定”——翻译成人话:你猜我加不加。 市场猜了,猜的结果是抛售。 一个央行行长,没花一分钱,靠一段话让9万人爆仓。 这就是宏观的力量。我低估了。 但我没有翻空。 原因就三点: 第一,机构在买。 ETF连续9天流入30亿不是散户行为。贝莱德一家贡献了72%。这帮人不会因为沃什一句话就翻脸——他们在看3-5年。 第二,预测市场没慌。 交易员仍然给比特币触及84,000美元的概率77%,跌到55,000的概率只有23%。回调没改变中期定价。 第三,技术结构没坏。 RSI约69.7,没进超买区。76,500-77,000是第一道支撑,75,000-76,000是更强的历史交易量支撑区。 涨了4500点,回调3000点,叫健康修正,不叫趋势反转。 那接下来怎么看? 修正后的判断:不悲观,但需要耐心。 76,000-81,000会成为新的震荡区间。突破81k可能需要等到9月CPI或非农给出“不加息”的信号。 在此之前,别追高,别满仓,别开10倍杠杆。 $BTC $ETH #沃什强调通胀风险,9月加息预期升温 $SOL
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Last night the market experienced a "fire and ice" scenario. Federal Reserve Chair Wash dropped a hawkish bomb at Jackson Hole — inflation is still too high, "there's more work to do." The market instantly turned. The probability of a September rate hike soared from 35.4% to 55.7%. Bitcoin plunged from a high of $81,455 to $76,877, a single-day drop of 3.39%. In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated $481 million — of which $360 million were long positions. Leveraged players got wiped out in one wave. The candlesticks are all red, retail investors are cutting losses, and the chat groups are full of complaints. But on the other side, the picture is completely different. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, totaling $2.8 billion. August's cumulative inflows exceeded $3 billion, the strongest month since 2026, about twice that of April. BlackRock's IBIT alone took in $2.02 billion, accounting for 72% of total inflows. ETFs are buying while prices are falling. This is not a market failure — someone is picking up chips at a discount. Who is selling? Leveraged longs are being liquidated, short-term traders are taking profits at the 81K resistance zone. Who is buying? Institutions are building positions through ETFs on dips. Eight consecutive days of inflows is no coincidence; it's a planned layout. This is a classic "strong hands buying from weak hands" scenario — retail panics and cuts losses, institutions calmly accumulate. In Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, the same divergence appeared, followed by a mid-term upward trend. Institutions are not here to do charity — they are here to bottom-fish. Predictive market data shows traders currently bet on a 77% probability that Bitcoin will reach $84,000, and only a 23% chance it will fall to $55,000. If you only watch the candlesticks, you see panic. If you watch the capital flows, you see the layout. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什强调通胀风险,9月加息预期升温

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