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Deep Tide Guide: Bitcoin surged about 22% this week, marking the largest single-week gain in years, closing on Sunday night (Bitstamp) at around $76,500, with an intraday high of $79,461; Coinglass data shows approximately $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated in a single day, Bloomberg calls it the largest short squeeze on record. In response to the question "Did I miss out?", the author backtested 46 similar surges since 2013: 30 of these occurred when the price was more than 30% below the all-time high, resulting in 15 times no further buying opportunity and 15 times a full retracement of gains within six months—meaning a surge alone cannot determine whether it’s a bottom or a trap. However, the author points out that the real signal is not in the "green week," but whether the CSH score can hold above 30 and continue rising in the following weeks (currently 31.9); historically, all four instances of "violent surges breaking above 30 after extremely low scores" corresponded to bear market bottoms, whereas the July 2022 score stalled at 28 without breaking 30, and the true bottom appeared four months later. The author’s conclusion is: rather than predicting direction, it’s better to follow a set plan of "buy below 30, hold steady above 30." Bitcoin surged about 22% this week, setting the largest single-week gain in years. Coinglass data shows that during the rise, about $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated in a single day; Bloomberg calls this the largest short squeeze on record. The price once reached 7 Follow the structure, go with the trend.
Recently, many people have been struggling with a core question: Is Bassett's move to expand the US Treasury long-term repo facility a temporary patch to cover shortfalls, or a major move to reshape liquidity? Is the current market a short-term rebound or the start of a new round of interest rate declines? Today, I'll thoroughly break down the underlying logic for you.
The summer liquidity window is the key period for US Treasury policy battles. The fiscal side will definitely intervene in long-term yields, and the market will only preemptively speculate on expectations rather than wait for policies to be implemented before reacting. The bond market has repeatedly surged mid-way, but with Bassett's official announcement to expand the repo tool scale, the entire big structural trend has become completely clear.
First, let me clarify the core key signals that many have overlooked:
In the past, the Treasury's repo tool was mainly a liquidity buffer and did not touch yield pricing. Previous Treasuries treated it as an emergency backstop tool to maintain normal market trading, fully respecting the market-formed yield curve. But this time, Bassett publicly and deliberately guided long-term yields downward, marking a historic reversal in positioning.
Earlier, during Treasury auctions, the Treasury was already overwhelmed, with long-term bond winning yields hitting decades-highs and fiscal interest expenses soaring sharply. But Bassett hesitated and delayed action, causing long-term yields to spiral out of control and accumulating massive passive selling pressure in the market.
Now the situation has fully escalated: from relying solely on market-driven pricing to the Treasury actively intervening in the yield curve. This directly locks in the subsequent major trend: the market-based pricing logic of US Treasury yields temporarily fails, fiscal policy begins to deeply bind with the bond market, and US Treasuries officially evolve from pure trading instruments into policy control tools.
Why will this intervention completely change market liquidity logic? The core lies in two underlying logics.
First, Bassett's operation is essentially a straightforward shifting of pressure from one side to another.
The entire process involves no new base money and no reduction in total federal debt. The Treasury must issue short-term T-bills to raise funds to repurchase long-term bonds—in other words, swapping short-term debt for long-term debt, moving pressure from the long end to the short end, with total debt unchanged, just a maturity structure reshuffle.
The huge long-term debt repayment pressure cannot be magically absorbed. The two clearest paths ahead are both tied to market risks:
One is that concentrated short-term debt maturities will cause refinancing pressure to rise exponentially in the future. If the Fed maintains high rates, fiscal interest expenses will snowball, further worsening the deficit;
Two is that a surge in short-term debt supply will directly drain liquidity from the entire market. Although it seems to inject liquidity into the long-end market, it actually extracts liquidity from the whole financial system. Essentially, it is a liquidity transfer, not an addition.
Second, and most crucial expectation gap online: this operation is not quantitative easing at all and runs completely counter to the Fed's policy direction.
This is not a casual judgment but a solid policy positioning.
Previously, the market assumed rising long-term yields were tightening financial conditions on behalf of the Fed, so the Fed didn't need to hike rates. Now, the Treasury actively suppressing yields is like undermining the Fed's tightening efforts, causing a complete split in policy goals.
Many people don't understand the market because they look only at the bond market or yields in isolation without a holistic view. I've repeatedly emphasized: interpreting Treasury intervention and yield trends without considering Fed policy is meaningless. All US Treasury market moves, liquidity trends, and dollar movements must be interpreted within the "fiscal vs. Fed policy battle" framework to see the true direction.
The logic for global risk markets is also very clear:
Currently, there is no real new liquidity or fundamental positive reversal; the market is in a transition period of expectation speculation and logic reconstruction.
Previously anchored by low yields stabilizing global asset pricing, once intervention logic tightens and its effect fades, global equities, FX, and commodities pricing systems will passively adjust.
Corresponding to the current market, two core themes:
First, the risk-off logic continues, with policy intervention plus dollar depreciation expectations making hard assets like gold and silver very resilient;
Second, growth sectors await validation. Tech stocks and risk assets are tied to liquidity expectations. As policy effects are disproven and negative factors fully priced in, the rebound potential will become considerable.
Here is my core judgment:
Bassett's short-term intervention benefits are nearing an end, but not completely ineffective—it's a change in rhythm, level, and expectations.
The short-term market will continue to speculate on policy implementation strength. Mid-term, all market moves revolve around the main theme of "fiscal intervention vs. Fed tightening + worsening debt structure."
No need to be overly optimistic or blindly amplify risks.
The old US Treasury bear logic is partially playing out, but the new pricing system is not fully formed yet. This period is a critical window for structural transition.
The market is restructuring, the trend is reshaping—follow the main theme, avoid betting on one-sided moves, and go with the flow.
Follow me to keep mastering the core global macro logic and steadily navigate through bull and bear markets.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 A new round of U.S. economic pressure on Iran is escalating. The Trump administration is expected to announce further measures on August 24, as the market fears that expanding sanctions could continue to impact Iranian crude oil exports. Iran's stance is equally tough, even signaling that if the economic war continues to escalate, it could restrict energy transportation in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices quickly surged, at one point approaching $96 per barrel. If there is a persistent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, tightening energy supplies could push U.S. inflation up again. Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline prices have risen about 27% compared to the same period last year, and energy costs have once again become a major source of inflationary pressure. The logic is actually quite simple: rising oil prices → inflation expectations heating up→ limited room for Fed rate cuts→ longer high interest rates, → pressure on risk assets. But what truly deserves attention is that the market does not seem to trade entirely according to this traditional logic. Over the past week, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs attracted about $2.8 billion in capital inflows, with BTC ETFs accounting for about $2 billion, maintaining net inflows for several consecutive trading days, with institutional buying still evident. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, the dollar is weak, and gold and Bitcoin are simultaneously attracting capital attention. This means funds are reseeking alternatives to "safe haven + growth." The U.S. government bears huge annual interest payments, while the fiscal deficit and debt continue to grow. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds once reached about 5.4%, and long-term bonds#MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, halving its scale #ETH fluctuates after hitting $2,500 Good afternoon everyone!
Stepping out of the perspective of liquidity and price fluctuations, let's reconsider BTC, ETH, and SOL from the angles of capital stratification, user groups, and value capture ability.
$BTC BTC is essentially the "alternative reserve asset" of the crypto world, with value capture coming from external capital acceptance; the chain itself generates almost no business revenue. The market is now split into two types of participants: institutional ETF funds seeking allocation attributes, only concerned with macro and regulation; retail speculative funds playing wave trading. Their demands are not unified, causing market characteristics: institutions buy during big rallies, retail investors flood in at highs; once expectations reverse, both types of capital exit simultaneously, amplifying volatility. It does not rely on on-chain business profits; its survival foundation is social consensus, and the lack of intrinsic cash flow is its biggest shortcoming.
$ETH ETH is positioned as a settlement layer, attempting to capture value from on-chain activity. The staking mechanism turns tokens into network revenue certificates, and Gas burning returns part of the business profits to holders. But the reality is: Layer 2 ecosystems are booming, with many transactions moving off the mainnet, diverting mainnet fee income. Value creation happens on Layer 2, but value return rarely flows back to ETH tokens, causing a decoupling between business growth and token returns. ETH-ETF brings incremental funds but does not resolve the structural contradiction of diluted value capture, which is the fundamental reason why the ETH/BTC ratio has long struggled to break through.
$SOL SOL follows a user scale-first approach, sacrificing some decentralization for extreme performance, attracting retail investors and rapidly expanding the Meme ecosystem with low transaction costs. Its value capture model heavily depends on on-chain transaction fees, but the absolute fee amount is very low, making it difficult to cover the selling pressure from token inflation release. The ecosystem is lively, but at the token level, it is hard to convert user enthusiasm into holder returns. Market speculation on SOL-ETF expectations essentially hopes institutional funds will take over the retail ecosystem, driven by external narratives rather than on-chain intrinsic revenue realization.
The structural contradictions of the three are clear: BTC relies on external consensus; ETH has a mismatch between business growth and token returns; SOL has a thriving ecosystem but weak token capture ability. Even if liquidity recovers, these structural issues will not disappear with short-term market trends. Once external capital withdraws, the inherent flaws of each asset will dominate pricing again.The key variable is no longer rhetoric alone, but whether sanctions and selective shipping access translate into sustained physical supply losses. Brent’s 6.4% and WTI’s 5.7% weekly gains show that markets are already assigning a higher risk premium.
My read: tight diesel could become the more consequential transmission channel. If shipping curbs persist, higher energy costs may reach consumers and complicate the path for Fed policy, with knock-on effects across Treasury yields, gold and BTC. Case-by-case passage for some Iraqi tankers is not the same as normalization.
Not advice, just analysis.
#IranOilRiskEscalates$OKB got some real good news today, but brothers, don’t catch it at the peak.
On 8/24, OKX CEO Star announced the launch of a $1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund. Circle’s USDC + CCTP also officially went live on X Layer, directly opening stablecoin liquidity channels. This is a rare independent catalyst among the 6 coins:
Once the news broke, OKB surged to $212, but the ATH created on 8/21 was $239.91. It then retraced to around $110 and hovered there, and today it bounced again on the good news. The cross-source price gap is huge (OKX converter shows about $110, news-driven surge to $212), indicating a massive long-short split. Messari is even more interesting: since the 2021 bull market peak, only 22 tokens have outperformed BTC, and OKB is the only one that has maintained a lead since the 2021 peak, with a solid base of 21 million hard cap (65.25 million burned) + ICE strategic investment (valued at $25 billion).
But the retracement after the $239 high isn’t over yet. Today’s move is a news-driven pulse, not a trend restart. The key for the $1 billion fund is whether it can convert into real on-chain activity, not just the money itself.
Compared to other coins, OKB is one of the few among the 6 coins that has its own story (deflation + ecosystem + compliance endorsement), but in the short term, it’s pushed too high by the good news. Chasing it now is just carrying the news hype.BTC bullishness does not necessarily mean altcoins are ready. Can the rally in large-cap stocks be read as a signal for a broad altcoin rise? Bitcoin touched $79,500 and Ethereum hit $2,500, but many altcoins like H, LAB, KAITO, BEAT, and SNDK showed relatively weak trends. This is interpreted not as a lack of momentum but as selective capital allocation, reflecting rotation within the market. Liquidity remains concentrated in large assets, while altcoins face a triple constraint of new supply, thin liquidity, and insufficient spot demand. In particular, KAITO is in a phase where additional supply pressure is acting after a large-scale unlock. The implication of this trend for the market structure is clear. The failure of altcoins to rise alongside BTC and ETH, which are leading the uptrend, reveals a qualitative difference in capital rather than a spread of risk appetite. Funds flowing into large caps have not yet moved to small and mid-cap stocks, indicating that the altcoin market depends on the fundamentals and supply conditions of individual tokens $AAVE up +12% in one day, DeFi's old favorite is making a comeback, but there's a hidden risk that must be warned to the bros ⚠️
AAVE current price 142, 24h +12.4%, peaked at 145.
1. Clear driver: SEC's Reg Crypto proposal has entered the 60-day public comment period, the first wave of regulatory clarity benefits the DeFi leaders—UNI +6.9%, AAVE leading the rally, the sector's surge is no coincidence.
2. Hidden risk: Latest risk assessment shows that less than 9% of positions on Aave account for about 50% of the protocol's debt. If ETH experiences large volatility, a chain liquidation stampede is no joke.
3. My judgment: DeFi recovery makes it a core beneficiary, holding 130 looks toward 145–150. But don't leverage too aggressively, this concentration risk can blow up faster than I turn hostile 😘A 500u nap, for everyone's reference, don't blindly start trading
I thought I had confidently chosen the direction to short with high leverage
But...
When Ethereum was repeatedly tugging around $2400, bearish voices began to rise in the market. However, on-chain data clearly shows that it is far from the time to short.
The supply side is continuously tightening. Ethereum balances on exchanges have dropped to multi-year lows, with over 1.15 million ETH flowing out of trading platforms over several months. Meanwhile, staked amounts have surpassed 42 million ETH, accounting for more than 35% of the total supply. This means there is less freely tradable Ethereum in the market, and the selling pressure bullets are running out.
The capital side also sends positive signals. Institutional-level addresses are steadily accumulating; this is not the end of retail FOMO but rather allocation funds building positions steadily. On the macro front, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are becoming clearer, and improved liquidity provides medium-term support for cryptocurrencies.
Sentiment is far from extreme euphoria. Although the Fear & Greed Index is in the greed zone, it is still noticeably distant from the "extreme greed" seen at multiple historical tops. Funding rates are stable, and the futures market shows no signs of overheating. True market tops are born in mass celebrations, not in hesitation and disagreement.
Against the backdrop of supply contraction, capital inflow, and sane sentiment, shorting now is like catching a knife barehanded. Be patient and wait for confirmation signals on the right side; let the bullets fly a little longer. $ETH #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Last week’s question was simple: Was the $BTC rally only a short squeeze? Five consecutive positive US spot ETF sessions suggest there may be more behind the move. • BTC ETFs: ~$1.92B weekly inflows • ETH ETFs: ~$697M inflows • Combined volume: ~$29B • IBIT: ~$1.33B, around 69% of BTC ETF inflows • ETHA: ~$537M, roughly 77% of ETH ETF inflows The strength is encouraging, but there’s still a catch: breadth and persistence need confirmation. BTC ETF flows remain negative for 2026 overall, while EThis week, Bitcoin experienced an epic rebound, with a weekly increase of over 22%, reaching a high close to $79,500. The core positive factors are concentrated in three areas: Trump held a crypto industry summit, expressing an end to crypto regulatory crackdowns and pushing Congress to advance crypto compliance legislation; the U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing U.S. bond yields to fall and marginally easing liquidity conditions; the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $1.9 billion in one week, with institutional funds entering aggressively. Multiple positive factors combined triggered large-scale short liquidations, fully fueling a short squeeze in the short term. However, the market began to fluctuate at high levels over the weekend, with profit-taking gradually occurring. Whether it can hold the high ground going forward depends on the sustainability of funds and the progress of regulatory implementation. $BTC This whale's move is quite interesting, brothers, take a look.
Just saw on-chain data, an address placed a TWAP buy order at $BTC 77,124, spending over 15 million USD, planning to slowly accumulate over 200 BTC in 48 hours. The key point is he already holds a 40x long position on 73.5 BTC, with an average price of 77,503 and a liquidation price of 68,821, about 10 points away from the current price.
Honestly, this is not just opening a position, it looks more like defending the price or adding to the position. The TWAP has only run 5%, the bulk is still on the way. The biggest fear now is a pullback — that 40x long on 73.5 BTC is just 10 points from liquidation; and although 95% of the remaining orders haven't been filled, the margin has already been frozen by the exchange. If the price crashes, the unrealized loss will first eat into his available balance, and the frozen margin can't be withdrawn, meaning "having money but can't save it," only watching the position get liquidated. This isn't getting hit from both sides, it's a chain trap.
Recently, there have been many whales going all-in on BTC with 40x leverage, ranging from millions to tens of millions of dollars, using similar tactics — slowly placing TWAP orders, not wanting to crash the market. But this open play is like showing your bottom cards to the market — I know you have large buy orders around 77,100, and I know your downside buffer is only about 10 points.
Is this guy truly bullish with real money, or is he forced to add to his position to save himself? If BTC drops to around 69,000 in the next few days, this 40x position will basically be gone. BTC is rallying so vigorously, yet altcoins are still stuck in place, what do you make of this scene? Have you noticed that every time the market kicks off, there's always a group rushing to shout Altseason, but the on-chain data just doesn't back it up? Bitcoin just stabilized around 77K, Ethereum touched near 2.4K, and spot ETFs have attracted about 1.6 billion USD in a week, institutional buying is indeed back. But on the other hand, altcoins like BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, SNDK can't even hold a decent rebound, with volume so thin it seems no one is willing to take the risk. On the surface, it looks like a broad rally, but underneath it's actually a one-legged walk. My own feeling is that the engine driving this rebound isn't retail sentiment, but the derivatives structure. Short covering combined with ETF inflows is pushing BTC steadily and quickly, but the open interest in the futures market hasn't expanded to a crazy level, indicating leverage funds are still relatively restrained. This state is actually quite healthy—not a single big bullish candle blowing everyone away, but gradually grinding down shorts and forcing onlookers to get on board. But the problem is also hidden here. If BTC is supported by the derivatives structure, then for altcoins to catch up, capital must actively overflow. The current situation is that the total market cap of stablecoins hasn't grown significantly, and USDT on exchanges hasn't flowed massively into altcoin trading pairs, indicating that off-exchange incremental funds are still hesitant, and on-exchange funds only want to stay in BTC and ETH for hedging. Slightly 1) Price and Capital
2) This Round of Hot Topics
Alibaba's AI financing has triggered a market reassessment of tech stock valuations. U.S. tech stocks have already experienced a pullback; if Alibaba's financing pace is too rapid, it may lead to a revaluation of Hong Kong tech stocks. The institutionalization of South Korean crypto is accelerating, with Bithumb accounting for nearly half of the corporate accounts among the top five exchanges, reflecting a stabilizing local market structure, but it has yet to show direct support for Hong Kong tech stocks.
3) How I Understand It
The bulls' logic is that AI investment brings long-term technological iteration, and if Alibaba can achieve product implementation, valuations are expected to recover. The bears focus on the large financing scale and fast pace, which may dilute existing shareholders' equity, and the long AI implementation cycle means short-term profits are unlikely. If there is no clear AI product progress later, market sentiment may face further pressure.
4) What to Watch Next
Going forward, it is necessary to observe the specific progress disclosures of Alibaba's AI projects, such as product launches, revenue contributions, and technical roadmaps. Without substantial progress, the tech stock rebound will lack fundamental support. At the same time, overall liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market and changes in foreign holdings still need to be verified.
For informational and market scenario analysis purposes only; this does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks. Nếu đáy vĩ mô của Bitcoin thực sự đã được xác lập, thì thị trường vẫn đang ở giai đoạn rất sớm của chu kỳ phục hồi. 📉➡️📈 Trong lịch sử, tín hiệu mua theo tuần cuối cùng của chu kỳ giảm giá trước đó từng được xác nhận, và giá sau đó đã tăng tới 500%. Tuy nhiên, điều quan trọng cần lưu ý là các chu kỳ gần đây có biên độ dao động hẹp dần cả về phía tăng lẫn phía giảm. Điều này đồng nghĩa với việc nhà đầu tư nên kỳ vọng mức sinh lời thấp hơn so với các chu kỳ trước, thay vì đặt cược vào một đợt bùNVIDIA Q2 Earnings Report
AI Industry "Overall Performance Report"
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
Earnings for fiscal year 2027 Q2 announced after market close on August 26
Current market expectations for revenue are about $92 billion, nearly double year-over-year
The company's own guidance midpoint is $91 billion
Exceeding expectations is no longer a surprise; it is now a basic requirement
· Last quarter, NVIDIA's revenue was $81.6 billion, with data center revenue at $75.2 billion. The market is concerned whether the growth rate can continue to absorb increasingly high expectations.
· Approximately 75% gross margin. Blackwell Ultra ramp-up and Vera Rubin entering delivery cycle will bring stronger performance but also imply more complex system costs. HBM supply, product transitions, and rack delivery pace may all impact margins.
· Whether customers are still willing to spend. Cloud providers expanding capital expenditures means orders for NVIDIA; however, the market still needs to see this computing power ultimately convert into AI revenue, rather than just cycling within the industry chain.
This earnings report is not only about whether NVIDIA can make money, but also about whether the AI investment cycle can accelerate further Pop Mart's financial report stunned me. Revenue was 17.173 billion, up 23.8%, net profit was 5.038 billion, up 10.1%. The numbers aren't bad, but the market expected more and it fell short, causing the stock price to drop over 8%, halving from its peak. It's really a tough situation.
Wang Ning was quite candid, admitting that last year's surge had some luck involved, and the LABUBU proportion is also declining. Then they announced a 2 to 5 billion buyback plan. Goldman Sachs is still pouring cold water, saying demand is weak and inventory is high. But offline, the scene is completely opposite: Star People sell out instantly, second-hand prices are 13 times higher, and even Duan Yongping said the business is doing extremely well when visiting stores. Who to believe? I'm confused too.
The buyback is real money, at least the boss is confident; but the hurdles of growth rate and inventory remain. Whether they can launch another hit after LABUBU is the most important issue for this stock going forward, with Star People being a sign of hope. Today it rebounded 4% to HKD 155, sentiment is recovering, but a full return in one go seems unlikely. #FinancialReportObserverMultiple banks across countries have launched pilot projects for quantum-resistant encryption, and the NEAR testnet adopts the ML-DSA-65 standard.
But what about Bitcoin? Experts estimate that the upgrade will take 5-10 years, and BIP 360 is still in the draft stage.
Four major challenges:
1️⃣ Slow decentralized governance
2️⃣ Technical architecture needs to be rebuilt
3️⃣ Difficulties in migrating existing assets
4️⃣ The "immutable" narrative is locked in
Ironically: Solana successfully ran quantum-resistant signatures last December, while the veteran public chain is actually lagging behind.
$BTC $SOL $HOOD surged 13.7% in a single day, closing at $108. The core issue lies in whether the short-term boost to US stock brokers' valuations from crypto trading fees can translate into cross-asset support under the Jackson Hole macro interest rate narrative shift.
Currently, BTC has broken through $77,000, ETH is at $2,444, up 2.76%, and the crypto trading surge directly pushed $HOOD up 13.7% in one day, breaking $108. Funds also flowed into resource stocks like UEC, up 14.4%, and USAR, up 12.6%, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.71% to 3,877 points, and the Hang Seng Index dropped 2.09% to 25,465 points, showing a sharp divergence in cross-market risk appetite.
The order of market driving factors is: the magnitude of the crypto fee surge ranks highest, followed by the direction of the Jackson Hole interest rate narrative, and third is Nvidia's earnings report impact on tech stock liquidity.
The bullish scenario triggers if Jackson Hole confirms expectations of interest rate cuts, while BTC maintains trading volume above $77,000. At this point, $HOOD's fee revenue will extend to non-crypto business and solidify a market cap in the hundreds of billions; the variable to watch is growth in non-crypto business volume; the invalidation signal is Nvidia's earnings falling short and dragging down the overall US tech sector.
The bearish scenario triggers if crypto trading volume peaks short-term and then quickly declines, and Jackson Hole shows a stance of maintaining high interest rates. This would squeeze the premium supported solely by crypto fees, causing the stock price to consolidate based on fundamentals; the variable to watch is the strength of BTC support at the $77,000 level; the invalidation signal is continued strong rallies in US quantum and resource sectors taking over market sentiment.
The core condition invalidating the entire analysis is a sharp shift in macro interest rate expectations causing simultaneous volume contraction in traditional US stocks and crypto assets.
The most important variables to watch over the next 7 days are the interest rate signals released at Jackson Hole and the fund rotation rhythm between crypto and US stocks following Nvidia's earnings release.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
The US is targeting Iran again.
Trump called this "the most devastating economic action ever taken against a country." The goal is directly aimed at overthrowing the regime. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said details will be announced on the 24th, effectively setting the timeline.
Iran is not backing down. The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council said: if the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will leave the Strait of Hormuz. Countries helping the US wage economic war are considered by Iran as acts of war.
Then oil prices surged to 93.78.
An institution calculated that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a quarter, US inflation in Q4 could rise by 0.6 percentage points. US gasoline prices have already risen 29% compared to a year ago.
When oil prices rise, inflation won't come down. If inflation doesn't come down, the Federal Reserve can't cut interest rates. It might even have to raise rates.
So the question is—why in the same week did $BTC and $ETH ETFs see a net inflow of $2.6 billion?
Bitcoin ETFs accounted for $1.9 billion, with BlackRock alone taking in $1.3 billion. This marks five consecutive trading days of net inflows, the strongest single week since October last year.
What exactly is the market trading?
Traditional logic is: oil price up → inflation expectations up → rate cut expectations down → risk assets down.
But this logic has a premise—that there is no better place for funds to go.
The current situation is: US Treasury yields are rising, the dollar is falling, gold is rising, and Bitcoin is also rising.
Money is not just moving between safe-haven assets; it is withdrawing from somewhere.
US Treasuries.
The US pays $1 trillion in interest annually, with $5.5 trillion in fiscal revenue.
The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2007.
Borrowing is getting more expensive, and debt is growing.
When the "safest asset" starts to feel unsafe, money looks for new places.
Gold is old.
Bitcoin is new.
The $2.6 billion bought in ETFs this week is no coincidence.
Someone moved first.AAVE VS UNI｜A Straightforward Comparison of Two Major DeFi Blue Chips
Many people confuse AAVE and UNI. Both are DeFi leaders and have token burn narratives, but their underlying logic differs greatly. Here's a thorough explanation:
✅ Different Business Tracks
- UNI (Uniswap): Leading DEX spot trading platform, earning from trading fees. Users generate revenue by buying and selling tokens.
- AAVE (Aave): Leading DeFi lending platform, earning from lending interest spreads, liquidation penalties, and GHO stablecoin yields. Users generate cash flow by depositing and borrowing tokens.
✅ Token Supply & Burn Mechanisms (Key Point!)
UNI
Originally capped at 1 billion tokens, with 100 million burned at once, leaving 900 million; the contract has a built-in 2% annual perpetual inflation;
When the fee switch is enabled, trading revenue automatically goes into the contract, and fees trigger automatic burns. The higher the trading volume, the more tokens are burned, making it an automated deflationary mechanism.
AAVE
Hard cap of 16 million tokens, no fixed annual inflation, no minting out of thin air;
Burning is not automatic by contract but relies on DAO community voting to set an annual buyback budget. The protocol uses revenue to buy back tokens on the secondary market and then burns them. The buyback amount can be adjusted or paused by vote.
✅ Respective Strengths and Weaknesses
🔹UNI
Pros: Huge spot market size, burn mechanism embedded in the contract for automatic execution, simple narrative easy to hype;
Cons: 2% annual inflation is a long-term dilution; when market activity is low, fees drop and burn intensity weakens accordingly.
🔹AAVE
Pros: Fixed total supply with no new inflation, staking AAVE can enter the safety module to serve as protocol risk backstop, token carries real security value;
Cons: Burning depends on DAO voting decisions, not a mandatory permanent mechanism; lending track is highly affected by macro liquidity, with higher black swan risk.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Bitcoin's rebound this time came fast and strong.
From just above 60,000 in mid-August, it surged all the way up, reaching a high near 79,500 USD, with a gain of over 20% in just a few days.
After the peak, it did not directly pull back or crash, but oscillated repeatedly between 76,000 and 78,000, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate at this level.
What is truly noteworthy is the capital flow. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for several consecutive days, totaling about 1.92 billion USD from August 17 to 21, with over 600 million USD coming in on the 20th alone.
Institutions kept buying, combined with shorts being forced to cover, which pushed the price to this height. Although the price is now consolidating, the ETF money has not stopped.
High-level oscillation itself is not a bad thing; it is a normal digestion after a rapid rise.
As long as support around 75,000 holds, the structure is not broken. Whether it can move higher later depends mainly on whether capital can continue to flow in and whether it can break through previous highs with volume.
Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the medium-term capital sentiment is clearly more positive than in the past two months. After the consolidation ends, the direction is most likely still upward. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 A very interesting phenomenon in the market recently is:
The higher the US debt, the more attention $XAUT and $BTC receive from investors.
The logic is not complicated.
The US debt has already reached the $40 trillion level, and discussions about fiscal pressure, the credit of the dollar, and the future purchasing power of the currency are heating up.
When these discussions increase, capital naturally seeks alternative assets outside the dollar system.
In the past, many people's first reaction was gold.
But now, more and more people are starting to include Bitcoin on that list.
Because in the eyes of some investors, gold represents a traditional safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin represents a scarce asset of the digital age.
The recent rise in BTC is not driven by a single factor.
On one hand, changes in US fiscal policy have made the market rethink the long-term stability of the dollar system; on the other hand, continuous inflows from ETFs, combined with improved expectations for crypto regulation, have jointly driven Bitcoin's strength.
So the real controversy in the market now is not whether Bitcoin has risen or not, but:
Is Bitcoin a risk asset, or a kind of "insurance" against a dollar credit crisis?
My view is that in the short term, it will still be influenced by risk appetite, but in the long term, more and more capital has begun to treat it as a hedge against dollar credit risk. Bitcoin just showed why liquidity matters more than narratives.
BTC jumped above $79K as spot ETF inflows returned and short positions were squeezed.
The interesting test now isn't the next price target.
It's whether demand remains once forced buying disappears.
If it does, the move looks structural. If not, the rally may have been mostly positioning.$AAVE surged above $144 in a single day, entering a dense previous resistance zone after consecutive weekly gains. The market shows a tug-of-war state driven by technical overbought conditions and spot buying pressure.
After breaking through the $140 level, the daily RSI reached 71, indicating a rapid short-term increase. The upward momentum is currently facing phased resistance from profit-taking.
The protocol treasury's daily automatic repurchase mechanism of about 292 tokens has been launched, combined with deposit size surpassing $30 billion, providing continuous spot support for the bottom price structure.
The substantial buying from cash flow repurchases has pushed the token into a valuation reshaping range, but technical overbought conditions mean bulls need to complete chip rotation above $144 as soon as possible.
If the daily candle can firmly hold above $144, the upward structure will open a channel targeting $175; if there is a volume surge with a long upper shadow at that level, the breakout pattern will be invalidated.
If high-level support weakens, the price may retest the $140 support or even probe the $120 zone; breaking below $120 would undermine the current uptrend driven by cash flow pricing.
If institutional and treasury buying stalls in the overbought zone, the current one-sided premium logic supported by repurchases will be disproven by high-level selling pressure.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether the $144 level can effectively convert from a previous strong resistance into a daily-level defensive support.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%🤗 Extra: Urgent reminder, focus on the market tonight
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is about to make a big move, with an emergency press conference scheduled for 2 PM Eastern Time on August 24 (2 AM Beijing Time on August 25), signaling an "Economic D-Day" against Iran.
Original quote: Dawn begins the economic battle, the strongest financial offensive in history.
To put it bluntly: don’t hold heavy positions and stay up late tonight; the market will most likely change significantly by tomorrow morning. Bitcoin’s chart is already weak, RSI is at 93, seriously overbought, and a correction and shakeout are overdue. On top of that, Yellen’s statement about Iran blocking oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz will push oil prices up, suppress inflation, delay Fed rate cuts, strengthen the dollar, tighten liquidity, and Bitcoin will behave like the US stock market—short-term volatility is unavoidable.
Altcoins and junk coins are absolutely off-limits tonight. Market makers are just waiting for a reason to spike the price; sudden news is the easiest way to trap and harvest retail investors. I’ve lost a lot on altcoins in the past and have realized that playing altcoins is just paying an IQ tax.
Now I only play $BTC and $OKB
(PS: The above is all personal prediction and does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk.)$xNVDA is the most stable ballast in the market, but my approach remains unchanged: don't chase before the earnings report, wait until 8/26 to decide.
On 8/21, it closed at 214.72 (-0.98%), pre-market at 218.34, down about 5% from the high of 225.30 on 8/13, consolidating and waiting for direction. Forward PE is about 24, market cap 5.2 trillion, PE 33 is not expensive; 58 institutions are strong buyers, with an average target price of 304-316 (+40%).
Fundamentals are solid: Q1 FY2027 revenue 81.6 billion (+85%), data center 75.2 billion, EPS 1.87 beating expectations. Earnings report after market on Wednesday 8/26, market expects revenue ~92 billion (last quarter 81.6 billion), EPS 2.09. The key is not how impressive the numbers are, but the FCF profit margin and guidance. Last Q1 FCF was 48.5 billion; if this time it falls below the 53% range, valuation will be cut.
Compared to 6 coins: after crypto was forced to cover short positions today and then pulled back, NVDA remains steady following its own earnings logic. It no longer plays with beta. But before 8/26, what’s missing is "delivery"—buying on a pullback after an earnings beat or buying deeply on a miss; betting on direction now is just giving away free food.$ZEC Grayscale has only submitted the application, it has not been approved!
Remember how many times the Bitcoin ETF was rejected back then?
Zcash is still a privacy coin, which makes regulators more sensitive, so the probability of rejection is much higher than approval. Do you think it will pass?
August 25 is just the expected listing date, not the official trading date, don't get confused. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BTC halving bonus is not a get-rich-quick code (August 24)
Many newcomers think that the price will skyrocket immediately after the halving. In fact, historical data shows us that after the halving, the market will experience a long period of volatile consolidation and will not surge straight away.
After the last halving, there was also a deep correction that cleared out a large amount of high-leverage positions before the big bull market began. Now, some time has passed since the halving, and much of the supply contraction logic has already been priced in by the market. Do not treat the halving as an all-powerful bullish reason.
Halving only changes the supply; what truly drives the market up is the continuous inflow of incremental funds afterward. If external capital does not keep up, even the best narratives will struggle to sustain. Do not blindly hold based on halving logic; market signals always take precedence over theoretical logic.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $BTC surged 23% in a week, ETH rose 27%, this is not a rebound, it's a change in trend.
BTC jumped directly from 64,000 to 79,000, a 23% weekly increase, the strongest week since March 2023. ETH simultaneously broke above 2400, with a weekly gain of over 27%. After breaking out of the range below 67,000 for several months, the shorts were swept away in one wave, with the largest single-day short liquidation in history of $1.44 billion directly wiped out.
Why the surge?
Three things combined: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increasing the long-term Treasury buyback scale from 2 billion to at least 4 billion, US bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, and the "currency devaluation trade" restarted. Institutional ETF buying accelerated, with spot ETF inflows of 1.92 billion in a single week, the highest since October 2025. Additionally, BTC's correlation with gold rose to 0.5, and the market began pricing it as a safe-haven asset.
Altcoins are following suit.
ETH and XRP outperformed BTC in altcoin gains. The SEC and CFTC are each advancing rulemaking without waiting for the CLARITY Act. Regulatory uncertainty is decreasing, and capital is starting to flow into altcoins.
Risks have not disappeared.
BTC is still 43% below last year's high, Strategy has stopped buying and is still selling coins for cash. The last time we saw a 23% weekly surge was in 2023. But to truly confirm a trend reversal, more time is needed for validation. Next Wednesday, August 26, Nvidia will release its earnings report. I've compiled a comprehensive analysis, and let's break it down together. We'll discuss the capital flow in the options market, look at what the options chain pricing suggests about the potential stock price volatility, and later cover Morningstar's fair valuation as well as the market's consensus expectations for Nvidia's revenue and earnings per share. This report will directly influence the overall market trend, corporate capital expenditures, the entire semiconductor sector, and all AI-related trades. Too many companies' fates are tied to Nvidia, and the results of this earnings report will have a tangible impact on the entire market. I hope this content will provide some insights for everyone. As the world's leading AI chip manufacturer, this earnings report is a decisive event for the technology and semiconductor industries. If the report significantly beats or misses expectations, the volatility won't be limited to Nvidia alone. It is now the company with the highest market capitalization globally and the core driver of this AI wave. Analysts forecast revenue around $91.8 billion, which basically aligns with the company's guidance of $91 billion plus or minus 2%, and the market consensus expects earnings per share of $2.07. On Monday, AI sentiment in the market warmed up again, with Anthropic releasing a very optimistic 2028 revenue forecast targeting $190-200 billion, reigniting enthusiasm for AI infrastructure, and Micron's stock price also rose accordingly. Compared to the same period last year, revenue growth is expected to reach 96%, nearly $92 billion in revenue, this scale and growthZEC’s fundamentals still have a major trust overhang: the Orchard flaw was real and existed for years, while cryptographic proof that it was never exploited wasn’t possible. The emergency fix addressed the vulnerability, but the supply-integrity question remains important.
Bearish take: a strong price rebound doesn’t erase the unresolved trust issue. ZEC can stay volatile, and chasing the rally purely on momentum is risky.【Strategy Starts Selling BTC, Has $MSTR's Investment Logic Changed?】
Michael Saylor has not released the Saylor Tracker for two consecutive weeks. Strategy has also recently stopped buying $BTC and instead sold about 6.59 million shares of MSTR, raising approximately $653.1M, of which $650M was placed into USD reserves.
More notably, the company also sold 1,690 BTC at a low price, cashing out about $108.6M to repurchase STRC. This indicates that the original cycle of "issuing more shares to buy more BTC" has partially shifted to "issuing MSTR, selling BTC, and maintaining cash reserves and credit products stable."
As BTC returns to around $77,000, the 840,447 BTC held by Strategy is now above the average cost of about $75,385. However, unrealized gains do not mean structural risks have disappeared, because MSTR investors still bear dilution, dividend expenses, management decisions, and mNAV volatility.
I still prefer directly holding BTC and $ETH; if self-custody is not possible, then consider spot ETFs. Investing in MSTR is no longer just a bet on BTC appreciation but also a bet on whether Strategy's capital operations can be sustained long-term.
If MSTR no longer continues to increase BTC holdings, are you still willing to bear this additional layer of risk? Although I don't want to look, some people are still asking, so I'll explain.
How hard is it to play secondary long positions now? In the past, retail investors didn't even know what OI or FDV meant; they just followed whatever others shouted. But now, many people can read the data, and only this group still plays. They all want to compete with the whales, but as retail investors get smarter, the whales get even smarter.
Some people check the data daily, so whales can definitely manipulate the data. For small market cap coins with high control, what surface data can they manipulate?
OI can be faked by wash trading, splitting positions, and moving across exchanges.
Liquidation data can be guided: placing large orders to induce liquidations, or placing opposite orders on major exchanges to mislead retail investors, then triggering liquidations on other exchanges.
Volume: no need to say, just fake it.
Funding rates: can be controlled through wash trading.
On-chain active addresses: can be made to look however they want.
Retail investors are evolving, and so are the whales. When you see data, you must think about what the data is really trying to express and what the whales' intentions are. If you only look at the surface, it's easy to get cut. Of course, I guess I've been cut recently too from all this guessing 🥹
$BTC Exactly—after a move from $500 → $860, ZEC can look extremely tempting to short, but a strong momentum move can stay irrational longer than expected.
The bigger point is that ZEC’s rally doesn’t necessarily need a fresh ZEC-specific catalyst. Strong BTC/ETH momentum can pull higher-beta, smaller-cap assets along with it.
So the safer read is: don’t short simply because the price looks “too high.” Wait for momentum to actually break before assuming the reversal.#Kashkari says US debt is not malfunctioning, can long-term bond repurchases solve the root problem?
Kashkari stated that the current US debt is only seeing rising yields, the market is not malfunctioning, and the Federal Reserve remains focused on controlling inflation, without adjusting policies specifically to suppress debt rates.
The Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases can only improve liquidity of old debt, which is an emergency fiscal operation, not QE, and does not address the root cause of the US's high deficit bond issuance; it treats the symptoms, not the root cause. After the news, long-term bond yields briefly fell, then rebounded again, and the market has seen that the repurchase scale is limited.
Market reflection:
$BTC｜$76630, resistance at 79000, support at 73800. High long-term bond yields continue to pressure risk assets; if yields surge again, the market is prone to correction.
$ETH｜$2430, resistance at 2500, support at 2380. Altcoins are more sensitive to changes in US bond yields.
Going forward, focus on the trend of long-term bond yields; if they surge again, even if crypto sentiment is hot, be wary of macroeconomic suppression. Repurchases are more of a short-term emotional buffer and cannot change the larger debt contradictions.
Personal market record only, does not constitute any investment advice. $SNDK New week, where will SanDisk go?
OK! Brothers are back, had two waves of mainstream gains over the weekend. Now let's talk about SanDisk. The storage sector collectively declined, with Hynix being the hardest hit. After these two days of digestion, the profit-taking from SanDisk's previous surge has mostly been released. The current position is an opportunity for you to get on board.
The fundamentals haven't changed; it's still very strong, plus it still distributes money to shareholders, indicating strong financial strength. Big players and institutions have already made their moves in advance, so we can't fall behind, right? SanDisk's long-term blueprint is still intimidating, but no rush to act yet. It's expected to first reach around 1525, then enter to bottom-fish.
Strategy: Light long position around 1525, with a target tentatively set at 1600. If it breaks above the previous high, the space will open up, and then consider adding positions! #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $SOL was really strong last week, rising from 75 to 93, but don’t get too excited above 90
The 350ms slot upgrade (Agave 4.2) landed on 8/21, spot SOL ETF inflows have exceeded $1.16 billion, and BSOL attracted over $20M in a single week; even more intense is the governance vote that started on Sunday, where SGP2 doubles the annual deflation and SGP3 raises daily burns from 648 to 9,000 SOL, directly tightening the supply side. This is not just hype, the chain is truly changing.
However, the RSI has reached 82 in the overbought zone, with a 24h high-low range of 87.58-102.74 showing full volatility, indicating significant resistance from trapped positions and profit-taking between 96-100. The 200-day EMA at 89 was just tested, marking a weekly-level trend reversal, but the short-term deviation is too large.
Essentially, this SOL rally still follows the "Treasury buyback + weak dollar" liquidity pulse, with a beta close to 1.4, lacking the pure independent momentum of OKB/HYPE. Once BTC turns down, SOL will fall faster than anyone else.
SOL has the greatest elasticity among the 6 coins, but high elasticity means it can be brutal on both ends, so brothers, set your stop losses well. This earnings slate is less a referendum on AI enthusiasm than a test of where monetization is actually accumulating. Nvidia, Synopsys, Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta report Aug 26, followed by Marvell on Aug 27.
The key signal is the gap between infrastructure demand and software conversion. Strong compute, networking and chip-design activity alongside weak software orders would suggest value remains concentrated upstream. Evidence of revenue traction on both sides would make the broader valuation case more durable.
Not advice, just analysis.
#AIEarningsWatch#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
$NVDA Nvidia earnings after market close on Wednesday, this is the most important AI industry chain report this week.
The market expects Q2 revenue of $91.9 billion to $92.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 96%. The data center business is expected to contribute $85.4 billion, up 107% year-on-year, with gross margin expected to remain around 75%. Citigroup believes Nvidia has locked in all HBM supply for 2026 and 2027, and AI network component shipments are also accelerating. Jefferies expects the Vera Rubin series to become the dominant revenue source in Q1 of fiscal 2028.
If the earnings exceed expectations, the semiconductor equipment chain will most likely rise. If it only meets expectations, the market may continue to diverge. Nvidia's earnings are seen as a potential catalyst for the S&P 500 to hit 8000 points, but expectations are already very high; only exceeding expectations will be a surprise, meeting expectations will not be rewarded.
$AXTI is still stuck at 67, entered at 78 and did not exit at 97, now the grid is paused after a pullback, with an unrealized loss of 51 USD. But I do not plan to exit at this position because the next few days may be the real turning point. If Nvidia's earnings exceed expectations, AXTI will most likely recover.$PEPE Today saw a slight pullback of about 2%, with the price near 0.000004. A few days ago, the rally was quite strong, rising from a low point all the way up. Now that we've entered a consolidation phase, my mood has calmed down a bit. From the data, the open interest fluctuates significantly, with a clear spike and pullback. Currently, its nominal value hovers around 1 billion. There was no continued sharp increase, nor a crash-like decline, indicating that funds were still in the market, just that there was no large-scale new inflow. But the change in the long-short account ratio is quite dramatic. From a very low point in the early session, it surged all the way to above 2.2, with long positions accounting for an absolute dominance. While prices are pulling back, long positions are increasing sharply—this divergence is quite obvious. This indicates that during the earlier rally, many bears were cleared out, and now during the pullback phase, new bulls are entering to buy in. This structure may not trigger another sharp rally in the short term, but the support below is stronger than it appears. At this level, I won't rush to chase higher. It's more likely to wait until the consolidation ends, or after the bull-bear ratio shows some pullback and absorbs the overheated bullish sentiment, then see if there are better buying opportunities at the dip. If open interest can rise again and the price holds above the current range, the probability of further increases will be higher. Conversely, if the long-short ratio quickly turns downward and open interest drops, the correction may continue for a while. I'm still watching for now, first watching tonight's positions and long-short ratio changes before deciding whether to make a move. After all, today is Monday, unless something special happensUpdated on August 24, strong inflow into ETFs
1. ETF market: Last week, BTC net inflow was 28,620 coins, Ethereum net inflow was 327,800
Last week was all net inflow, with scale similar to the rise in May. Ethereum's data is better than in May, so it makes sense that Ethereum's price is stronger
2. Fear and Greed Index: 73, Greed
3. btc.d index: 59.65
4. M2 indicator: This week shows a small rebound amid high-level oscillation, continuing until September 1
Summary: Last week, gold and Bitcoin surged sharply, while the stock market oscillated or slightly declined. From a macro perspective, this is due to Basent's statement expanding long-term treasury repos, causing the US dollar to weaken, leading investors to flock to hard assets, namely gold and Bitcoin, compounded by Trump's positive remarks about the crypto space.
Personally, this wave feels more like a rotation of funds. After the storage sector emerged some time ago, funds directly flowed into the crypto space and gold. Whether the bull market will fully expand and continue depends on whether this rotation of funds can fully revitalize the market and form a bull market structure, completely breaking through May's 82,000
Therefore, this week's ETF market is crucial, and incremental funds play a decisive role
$BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $BTC at the second weekly threshold, can the real demand after the short squeeze hold up?
How should we interpret the gap between the apparent rebound and the actual demand?
Last week, BTC fluctuated around the $77,000~78,000 range, once approaching $79,500 before retreating. ETH remained above $2,500.
The market's initial reaction can be explained by a short squeeze, but a more important change is the return of ETF demand. Last week, the combined net inflow of BTC and ETH spot ETFs was about $2.6 billion. This means it’s not the liquidation pressure of short-term bets, but institutional funds are building new positions.
The question is whether this inflow signals a trend reversal or a one-time rebalancing. A short squeeze can quickly push prices up but cannot create sustained momentum. In contrast, the net inflow of ETFs acts as structural demand supporting the price ceiling. The market is currently in a transition from the former to the latter paradigm. The $2.6 billion figure is not just a simple inflow but can be interpreted as a leading indicator of risk appetite recovery. $ETH $SOL #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Every market has a moment where two completely opposite stories both look correct at the same time. Bitcoin is sitting in exactly that moment right now, and the data backing each side is stronger than the usual social-media noise around it. A Number Most People Aren't Watching Forget price for a second. Look underneath it, at what's called the realized price — essentially the average cost basis of every coin in circulation, based on the last time each one changed hands. As of mid-August, indepenComparison of the stock of two types of scarce assets, with a long-term valuation model providing key forecasts
From the perspective of global reserves, the official gold reserves held by the United States account for about 3.8% of the total global gold stock.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin hoarded by the listed company MSTR accounts for 4.1% of BTC's maximum total supply, with a single company's holdings already exceeding the global share of U.S. gold reserves.
Combining the power-law growth model projection, as Bitcoin adoption continues to increase and new mining output declines year by year, industry estimates believe that by 2035, Bitcoin's overall market value is expected to surpass that of gold.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 BTC 2주차 관문, 숏스퀴즈 뒤 진짜 수요가 버티는가 표면적 랠리와 실제 수요 사이의 간격을 어떻게 해석해야 할까. 지난주 BTC는 약 77,000~78,000달러 구간에서 등락했고, 한때 79,500달러까지 근접한 뒤 되밀렸다. ETH는 2,500달러 이상을 유지 중이다. 시장의 첫 반응은 숏스퀴즈로 설명할 수 있지만, 더 중요한 변화는 ETF 수요의 회귀다. 지난주 BTC와 ETH 현물 ETF에는 합산 약 26억 달러의 순유입이 발생했다. 이는 단기 베팅의 청산 압력이 아니라, 기관 자금이 새 포지션을 설정하고 있음을 의미한다. 문제는 이 유입이 추세 전환의 신호인지, 일회성 리밸런싱인지다. 숏스퀴즈는 가격을 빠르게 끌어올리지만 지속력을 만들지 못한다. 반면 ETF 순유입은 가격 상단을 받치는 구조적 수요로 작동한다. 현재 시장은 전자에서 후자로 패러다임이 넘어가는 과도기에 있다. 26억 달러라는 숫자는 단순 유입 이상으로, 위험선호 회복의 선행 지표로 읽을 수 있다. 이번 주If you felt you slept soundly last night, it's probably because you didn't have any open positions. But for about 190,000 traders worldwide, last night's market was not just volatile—it was a merciless financial massacre. Let's look at this chilling set of data: $1.575 trillion worth of positions were wiped out (that's enough to erase the GDP of a medium-sized country). The most dramatic part is that although $310 million in long positions were liquidated during the pullback, the real headline was the $1.27 billion in shorts—they bet Bitcoin wouldn't rise, but the 22% weekly surge sent them straight to the ICU.
The market has entered an irrational frenzy phase. When shorts collectively get liquidated, their forced buy orders fuel the price surge, creating a death spiral of rising prices triggering more liquidations, only this time the shorts are the ones dying.
1. Bitcoin soared, and the stock prices of Coinbase and Robinhood took off (up 8% and 14%, respectively). The logic is simple: whether you made huge profits or suffered big losses, exchanges rake in massive commissions. In this market, traffic equals money, and the US stock market's reaction proves mainstream capital is fully returning to the crypto narrative.
2. Liquidating so many positions in a short time means the market's leverage has been forcibly reset. The market will be very fragile in the short term; even a slight disturbance could cause severe volatility because everyone's stop-loss levels were wiped out by this wave.
*Don'tHaven't talked about $SNDK for a long time, today with the US stock market closed, it first pushed the premium down to negative four by itself. I watched it all night and found this trend quite interesting.
📰 News: Cramer directly urged not to follow the crowd to sell SanDisk just because Druckenmiller sold it. Gao Yi's latest holdings instead significantly increased positions in Micron and SanDisk. There are differences in the news, but institutions have not given up on this line.
🔧 Technical: The daily RSI14 is still strong at 66.9, MACD shows a golden cross but the red bars are shortening, price fell below MA7 but stayed above MA25, the 7/25 moving averages maintain a bullish alignment, more like a short-term pullback.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 tokens only fell 0.35%, with the US stock market closed overnight lacking the support of the underlying stocks, the SNDK token itself fell first to a premium of -4.01%, sentiment was hit harder than the underlying stock.
🎯 Today's view: Bullish. The storage cycle and institutional accumulation line have not changed, the negative premium combined with the technical pullback not breaking key moving averages, at this position I prefer to watch for subsequent sentiment recovery rather than a trend deterioration.
📊 Token 1,532.08 (-3.78%) | Underlying stock 1,596.08 (-0.28%) | Premium -4.01% | US stock market closed overnight
#USStockTokens
#StorageChips
#Semiconductors $FLOW is up around 10% today while most of the market is barely moving. 👀
The bigger story: Flow recently raised transaction fees 2–4x while reducing new FLOW issuance as network usage covers more staking costs.
That gives today's breakout a real tokenomics angle — higher activity can mean less dilution.
Sustainable repricing, or another rotation trade?Three places in Asia are accelerating the adoption of stablecoin payments—what does this mean for U Card users?
Recently, stablecoin regulations in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan have been advancing. Singapore has already issued licenses to institutions like Circle, Hong Kong approved the first two stablecoin licenses in April, and Japan's travel rule has added five new applicable regions.
What is the practical impact of these changes on U Card users?
The most direct effect: more local fiat-backed stablecoins. AUDD (Australian Dollar), XSGD (Singapore Dollar), JPYC (Japanese Yen), EURC (Euro)—if a U Card can directly hold and settle with these local stablecoins, cross-border spending will skip a currency exchange step and reduce spread costs.
Previously, when using a U Card in Southeast Asia, the transaction path was basically USDT→USD→local currency, involving two currency exchanges and two rounds of loss. In the future, if you spend directly with local stablecoins, it will be a one-step process.
When choosing a card, pay attention to which settlement currencies it supports and whether it offers direct local currency channels.