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$UNITREE currently has a market capitalization of forty to fifty billion USD. To be honest, based solely on its performance, it is not worth this price. In the first half of 2026, Unitree Technology achieved operating revenue of 1.152 billion yuan and a net profit of 274 million yuan. In other words, at Unitree Technology's current profit pace, it would take hundreds of years to earn its market value. Moreover, according to Wang Xingxing of Unitree Technology at the World Robot Conference, he believes the ChatGPT moment for the robotics sector is still two to three years away, possibly even five to ten years. The embodied intelligence ChatGPT moment is expected to arrive within 2-3 years at the earliest, but it could also take 5 or even 10 years. Therefore, I believe that Unitree Technology at its current price is not worth going long on. As for whether it can be shorted, I personally lean towards yes. Because neither its own situation nor market sentiment can support a significant rise right now. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that since this contract went live, its contract open interest has been continuously increasing, while the long-short ratio has been steadily decreasing. This means that currently, there is a lot of capital in the market going short. Many people did not notice this coin early on because when it launched, Bitcoin suddenly surged, drawing all market attention away. I was paying attention to this coin, but at that time I did not short it. Why? Because I was busy shorting mainstream coins at that time BTC retreated to around $79,100 after reaching $81,266. The current core issue is whether spot funds will maintain the breakout momentum after the short squeeze triggered by the $3 billion short liquidation ends.
The market performance shifted from a one-sided rally to high-volatility oscillation, with concentrated selling pressure appearing above $81,266. In terms of liquidity drivers, the strong liquidation feedback on the derivatives side dominates. The $3 billion short position liquidation accelerated the breakout speed, while spot buying provided bottom support with a net inflow of $1.9 billion in a single week.
The US Treasury's increase in long-term bond repurchases and the weakening dollar improved macro liquidity, but the persistently high long-term US Treasury yields mean valuation expansion lacks sustained interest rate support. Once the liquidation squeeze on the derivatives side subsides, market liquidity must shift from leveraged funds to spot buyers.
The bullish scenario triggers if $BTC reclaims the resistance zone between $79,400 and $80,400, accompanied by spot buying pushing the price above the $81,266 high. A volume breakout above this high would indicate the short squeeze has successfully evolved into a trend driven by real capital; the scenario fails if the breakout is accompanied by a sharp drop in ETF inflows or a significant volume contraction.
The bearish scenario triggers if the price breaks below the key support near the lower Bollinger Band at $78,600. If it continues to lose the $78,000 level, it confirms the $81,266 peak was a short-term bull trap, and previously accumulated profits will trigger a secondary sell-off; this scenario fails if strong spot buying emerges near $78,600 and quickly recovers above $80,000.
After short positions are cleared, a lack of follow-up buying will directly amplify the pressure of a high-level pullback. The quality of support at $78,600 directly determines whether the current high-level turnover can absorb profit-taking.
The most important variables to watch over the next 7 days are whether the US stock spot ETF inflows continue and the state of spot holdings within the $78,600 to $80,000 range.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视BTC surged to 81,000 before quickly pulling back: The most dangerous misjudgment in this rally is mistaking a short squeeze for trend confirmation
BTC's rise over the past week has been very strong, but today's 15-minute chart shows a change worth watching.
The price peaked at $81,266, then quickly retreated, currently hovering around $79,100. From the chart, there is a clear strong selling pressure near 81K for the first time, and the previous one-sided rally is turning into high volatility consolidation.
There is indeed real capital driving this rally.
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.9 billion last week, marking one of the strongest weeks this year; meanwhile, the US Treasury increased long-term bond repurchases, the dollar weakened, and regulatory expectations improved, all of which enhanced market risk appetite. (Reuters)
But one detail cannot be ignored:
This rally is driven not only by spot buying but also mixed with intense short covering.
About $3 billion worth of short positions were liquidated during this rally. In other words, when BTC suddenly accelerated from a low point, part of the rise was a positive feedback loop of "price increase → short stop-loss → forced buyback → continued rise." (The Wall Street Journal)
This is why I am not overly optimistic around 81K right now.
Because a short squeeze can create speed but cannot guarantee sustainability.
What truly determines whether BTC can upgrade from a "violent rebound" to a "new trend" is whether new spot capital continues to step in after the short squeeze ends.
Back to the 15-minute structure, several levels are very clear now.
The short-term resistance zone has formed between $79,400 and $80,400. BTC needs to firmly hold above 80K and further break today's high of $81,266 to prove that buying power can still expand upward.
On the downside, focus on around $78,600.
This level is near the lower Bollinger Band and is an important support area after this pullback. If 78.6K holds, it can still be understood as normal consolidation after a rise; but if it breaks again, especially losing 78K, then the 81K breakout should be watched carefully for a potential short-term bull trap.
Additionally, a macro variable is approaching.
The market will soon refocus on inflation, long-term US Treasury yields, and monetary policy expectations. Part of BTC's recent rise is due to a weaker dollar and improved liquidity, but long-term rates remain high, so the macro foundation of this rally is not yet fully solid. (The Block)
Therefore, I now prefer to define BTC as:
The trend is attempting to reverse, but the market is still in the "proving itself" phase.
The biggest change in recent days is not how much BTC has risen, but that ETF funds have returned, macro liquidity expectations have improved, and the market is willing to assign higher valuations to risk assets again.
But the real test after 81K is just beginning.
If BTC, after a $3 billion short squeeze, can still hold the $78,600–80,000 zone and break above 81.3K again relying on spot capital, then this rally may truly shift from a "short squeeze" to a "trend rally."
Conversely, if ETF funds start to fade and 80K cannot be sustained, the faster this rally climbs, the more the subsequent profit-taking pressure should be watched.
The market now needs to answer not:
Can BTC still rise?
But rather—
After most shorts have been cleared, who will take the next baton? $BTC This time, SanDisk's move is not just a simple oversold rebound; institutional funds are repricing NAND.
SNDK quickly pulled back from intraday lows today, currently priced around $1511.85, up 1.55% on the day. From the 15-minute chart, it once sharply dropped from around 1566 to the 1480 level but did not continue to fall uncontrollably and then showed clear support.
Technically, the price has now reclaimed the MA5 and MA10 areas, and the KDJ indicator is turning up from a low point. However, the $1530–$1537 range remains the first short-term resistance. To truly strengthen again, this zone must be reclaimed first. Above that is the previous high region of $1560–$1567.
But what I’m more focused on is not just these few candlesticks.
Recent disclosures show that Jane Street’s holdings in SanDisk have grown large enough to require a separate 13G filing. SEC documents indicate that as of the disclosure trigger date, it held about 7.409 million shares with shared voting rights in Sandisk. (Securities and Exchange Commission)
The real point to consider here is:
Why would large institutional funds continue to hold heavy positions after such dramatic volatility in the storage industry?
Because the market’s trade might no longer be the traditional "NAND cycle rebound," but AI is changing the entire demand structure of the storage industry.
On August 13, Sandisk’s Investor Day clearly presented a new long-term growth model, while continuing to emphasize storage demand driven by AI and data-intensive applications; the day before, the company and Kioxia announced a new generation of QLC 3D Flash technology aimed at AI and high-data-volume scenarios. (Sandisk Corporation)
The biggest weakness of NAND in the past was its cyclicality:
Supply expansion → price drop → manufacturers cut production → price recovery → then expand production again.
But in the AI era, a variable is changing.
Previously, the market mainly focused on shipments of PCs, phones, and consumer electronics. Now, more and more new demand comes from data centers, AI training, inference, and massive cold data storage.
In other words:
GPUs handle computation, HBM feeds data at high speed, and NAND stores the ever-growing data assets.
If AI ultimately brings not just a server procurement cycle but a multi-year explosion in data production, then NAND’s long-term demand center could be raised overall.
That’s why I don’t simply interpret Jane Street’s holdings as "a big institution being bullish."
Institutional holdings alone don’t guarantee stock price rises, and both 13F and 13G filings have disclosure delays. Jane Street itself is a market maker and complex strategy institution, so not all holdings can be directly equated with directional bullishness.
But at least it shows one thing:
Large funds are putting Sandisk back into the core trading pool.
Back to the chart, I’m currently focusing on three levels.
Around 1490 below is the first layer of short-term defense; if it breaks again, it may retest the 1466 level. On the upside, watch $1537 first; if it breaks out with volume, then look at the previous high of $1567.
So the most critical thing for SNDK now is not "it rose 1.55% today."
It’s:
Whether the dip near 1480 this time is just a short-term bottom-fishing by funds or the start of a new round of institutional repricing.
If AI ultimately not only reshapes GPUs and HBM but also begins to reshape NAND’s long-term demand curve, then the next real discussion for storage stocks might no longer be "when the cycle peaks," but—
Whether the profit center of this cycle is already completely different from the past? $SNDK This rebound is increasingly less like an ordinary emotional recovery. BTC is approaching $80,000, and many people's first reaction is "the bears have been squeezed out." That's certainly true, but just talking about squeezing doesn't explain the strength of this rally. A deeper change is that funds are beginning to retranslate US fiscal, debt, and liquidity arrangements into Bitcoin narratives. US debt buybacks, dollar pressure, fiscal deficits, and spot ETFs continue to flow in, pulling BTC back from a highly volatile speculative asset to the position of a "macro hedge asset." #BTC breaks $80,000—can it hold a new level? This is why Strategy's latest moves are worth a closer look. The company raised over $2 billion this time but did not immediately continue buying coins; instead, it first supplemented the dollar pool and capital structure. This shows that even the most aggressive corporate holders are acknowledging a reality: the market has returned, but capital management is more important than chasing prices. For the market, this isn't negative news; rather, it seems like a sign of maturity. Hot money is rushing, veteran players are managing the table. On the other side, Ethereum's institutionalization is also accelerating. BitMine pushed ETH holdings close to 5% of total supply, and a large amount of assets are already staked. ETH is no longer just a "public chain token"; it increasingly feels like a means of production that can be packaged by listed companies, increased yields, and embedded in balance sheets. This change is more important than short-term price fluctuations. Another signal that cannot be ignored comes from Washington. Stand With Crypto endorses 32 opinionsMicron rebounded from a sharp drop, but what’s really worth watching isn’t this bullish candle, it’s that the “AI memory wall” is becoming more severe.
MU quickly bounced today from around $894 to $933, even touching $947 intraday. On the 15-minute chart, the price has reclaimed MA5, MA10, and MA20, and KDJ is recovering from a low, indicating short-term funds are flowing back after yesterday’s plunge.
However, I believe what’s more important behind this rebound isn’t the technical indicators, but a recent industry signal Micron has released:
AI computing power growth is clearly outpacing memory bandwidth growth.
At Hot Chips 2026, Micron pointed out that AI compute performance roughly triples every two years, while HBM bandwidth increases by less than double, meaning the “Memory Wall” could actually worsen. Even more notably, about 17.2% of unexpected interruptions during Meta’s large-scale Llama 3 training were related to HBM3. (BigGo Finance)
This implies future AI competition may no longer be just about “who has more GPUs.”
As GPU compute power continues to grow exponentially, memory bandwidth, capacity, cooling, packaging, and HBM yield could all become bottlenecks limiting the efficiency of entire AI clusters.
This precisely strengthens Micron’s long-term thesis.
HBM consumes more wafer area compared to traditional DDR5; Micron disclosed that currently, the same capacity requires about 3 times the wafer area. As HBM stacking and bandwidth continue to improve, this “wafer penalty” is even expanding. In other words, every additional portion of HBM capacity consumed by AI servers more noticeably squeezes traditional DRAM supply. (Tom’s Hardware)
So the current memory cycle is no longer purely driven by PC and smartphone demand as in the past.
AI is simultaneously creating two things: higher demand for high-end memory and tighter effective wafer supply.
Micron has even announced plans to invest $10 billion over the next decade to build Micron Research Labs to study next-generation memory, advanced packaging, and compute architectures, indicating the company is betting on the path where “memory evolves from a supporting role to a core bottleneck in AI infrastructure.” (Micron Investor Relations)
Back to the market.
The $936–$947 range remains the first resistance zone, especially near $947, which is today’s high. If volume expands and price breaks through and holds above this level, I would interpret this move as a recovery after a panic washout near $894; but if it encounters resistance again near $940, then this can still only be defined as a technical rebound after a sharp drop.
On the downside, I’m focusing on around $925 and $919. If it falls below $919 again, it means buying support is still insufficient.
So my current view on MU is:
The short-term reversal is not fully confirmed yet, but the long-term logic is becoming clearer—the real scarcity in the AI era may not just be compute power, but the memory that “feeds” that compute power.
If GPUs get stronger but HBM bandwidth, cooling, and capacity can’t keep up, will the market eventually realize that the AI supply chain’s true sustainable pricing power lies in storage? $MU Bitcoin has once again stepped onto the stage of breaking through $80,000, marking its second attempt in recent years. There's an old saying in the market: 'You don't have to do it three times; the third time often reveals the real deal.' So right now, everyone's biggest concern is whether this crucial leap can actually happen. Looking at the current market structure, the probability of success this time is indeed more promising than the previous two times. A clear signal is that the strength of each pullback after each rally is decreasing. The first attempt was severely suppressed by the price, and although the second attempt failed to hold steady, it remained volatile at a high level. This change indicates that the selling pressure near $80,000 is gradually being digested, fewer people are willing to sell at this level, and the stability of the chip is improving. At the same time, the recovery in capital conditions has also provided confidence for this round of offensives. Bitcoin's rapid surge from over $60,000 to nearly $80,000 was accompanied by a large number of short positions being liquidated and continued inflows of ETF funds. Compared to a few months ago, the overall liquidity environment has clearly improved, and institutional funds have become more proactive. This kind of financial support is often more convincing than a purely technical pattern. Market sentiment is quietly shifting. Previously, everyone was worried about whether it would fall below 60,000, but now the focus of discussion has shifted to when it will break 80,000. In a bull market atmosphere, the most typical trend is often not an immediate breakout, but rather a sudden direction after repeated high-level fluctuations and accumulation. This psychological shift itself is a sign that the market is maturing. However, the more he was at such a threshold,@小二哥哥68 What truly remained in this event was not a coherent market judgment, but a scene where positions, sentiment, and execution discipline all lost control. The whole event revolved around a long Ethereum position: he originally saw $BTC breaking through 80,000 in the morning session and briefly standing near 80,000 as a signal of rising risk appetite, so he took a long position around $ETH around 2500–2523; But after the price didn't rally as expected, the live stream quickly shifted from market analysis to anxiety about losses, increasing positions, and liquidation lines.
According to his own account during the livestream, this ETH position was traded around 2508, 2518, and 2523 in succession. He had previously considered using 2460 as a short-term stop-loss reference, but later repeatedly expressed unwillingness to execute stop-losses and not want to exit at a loss. He said he was still bullish, but on the other hand, admitted he was actually more bearish and was already stuck; There was a clear disconnect between direction judgment and holding behavior. Later, he repeatedly discussed topics like cross-positioning, margin addition, 150x leverage, and the liquidation line around 2418, no longer a trading plan based on unified conditions.
This is the most important risk boundary to be kept in this match: opening long positions above 2500, risk levels near 2460, and liquidation pressure near 2418 are all personal position information mentioned by streamers during highly volatile emotions, not verifiable buy or sell advice, and certainly not as points to follow. Especially when he himself has already said things like "No stop-loss set anymore," "Add more and you're finished," "This is pure gambling," these words precisely reveal the original meaningBitcoin
Historically, when $BTC first touched the Monthly Tenkan 🔴, the cycle bottom was already in.
Whether price reclaimed it immediately or not didn’t change that.
We are now at the first touch again.Today $BTC directly broke through $81,270, standing above this round number for the first time since May. At the time of writing, it is $80,970, up 4.59% in 24h. In 24 hours, 94,000 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $635 million, mostly shorts getting liquidated.
The capital flow is really strong. GSR weekly report: BTC+ETH spot ETFs last week saw a net inflow flip from -$400 million the previous week to +$2.5 billion, the highest single week this year. Among them, BTC ETFs took $192 million, ETH ETFs $697 million. This means this rally is backed by fresh money, not just leverage-driven hype.
But leverage has also piled up. RSI surged to 90.2, BTC broke above the upper band, and Glassnode shows 85% of altcoin funding rates are above historical averages — the market is already filled with a "perpetual bull" sentiment. Short-term holders are massively profitable, exchange balances started to flow back this week, indicating early entrants are gradually selling. The most likely scenario at this stage is not a top, but a single-day large red candle washing out some weak longs, then continuing to slowly rise.
Tonight is the US House of Representatives CLARITY Act voting; Wednesday 8/27 NVDA earnings (options implied ±5.4%); Friday 8/29 PCE; next Wednesday 9/3 ISM manufacturing; 9/9 US Treasury next QE operation. Four events impacting within three weeks, betting on a single direction is a gamble. # Core Reasons for BTC and ETH's Recent Rise (August 2026) > > Risk Warning: China prohibits cryptocurrency trading. The following is only an objective analysis of market logic and **does not constitute any investment advice**. This round of rally is driven by multiple favorable factors resonating with **macro liquidity + improved US regulatory expectations + institutional funds + short squeezing**, with ETH's gains outperforming BTC Securities Star. ## 1. Macro Liquidity (the Core Trigger) The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury bond repurchase plans, raising the maximum limit per operation from $2 billion to $4 billion starting in September, to stabilize the bond market, according to Sina Finance. - Directly pushing down 10-30 year U.S. Treasury yields, weakening the US dollar index; - Risk-free yields are declining, funds are flowing out of US Treasuries toward high-risk assets like BTC, and gold and crypto have strengthened simultaneously. > > The previous continuous rise in long-term bond yields is the biggest macroeconomic shackle suppressing the crypto market; loosening these shackles directly opens up room for gains. ## 2. Significant improvement in U.S. regulatory expectations (Sentiment Catalyst) Multiple positive news items materialized on August 18-19: 1. The SEC released a draft new crypto asset regulation, setting up a **safe harbor mechanism**: after project development is completed, tokens can "graduate" and are no longer classified as securities, providing a clear compliance path to reduce the risk of industry lawsuits and delisting (the draft has not yet been legislated, and market trading is based on expectations), according to Sina Finance. 2. The White House convened encrypted meetingsTRUMP at $2.3, do you dare to bottom-fish?
First, look at the surface: positive news bombardment, but the price weakens independently.
A one-week surge of 75-80%, from 1.36 to 3.6, with tens of millions of dollars in short positions liquidated in a single day. Then the team sells off + takes profits, and the price falls from 3.6 to 2.3, a 36% drop. BTC is rising, ETH is rising, only TRUMP is falling.
Daily chart shows a pullback from a high, RSI cooling down from overbought, volume still active. The hype remains, but some are quietly exiting.
First thing: the team is selling, you might be kept in the dark.
Lookonchain monitored: the Trump-related team operated through Solana liquidity pools, netting $3.39 million USDC in 10 hours, while a large amount of tokens were transferred to exchanges. Similar transfers/unlocks happened before.
Total supply is 1 billion tokens, circulating only 251 million (25%), the remaining 75% unlocks over 3 years, the team holds a massive amount of chips.
You buy in at 2.3 thinking "a 36% drop is cheap enough." But what is the team's cost? Nearly zero.
Second thing: Eric Trump personally denied rumors, but the market selectively ignores.
In mid to late August, the White House crypto summit + Trump's pro-crypto statements, combined with rumors of "new coin issuance soon," pushed a 75% surge in a week. Then Eric Trump came out saying: "It's absolutely a scam."
Market reaction? Ignored. The price kept rising. The hype is all about the name "Trump."
This coin has no fundamentals, no utility, no revenue, just a person's name. ATH was $75, current price $2.3, a 96%+ retracement. Every surge is because Trump said something good, every crash is because the team is selling.
Third thing: a technical warning signal has appeared.
From 1.36 to 3.6, up 164%. Retraced to 2.3, just over 60% of the rise—this is a classic "Fibonacci 618 support level."
If it holds 2.2 and BTC stays above 80,000, it may retest 3.0-3.5. If it breaks below 2.0, next stop is 1.7.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself.
On one side:
BTC above 80,000, overall crypto bullish
White House crypto summit + ongoing Trump hype
Midterm elections approaching, political memes have narrative premium
Rebound from 1.36 to 3.6, trend turned bullish
On the other side:
Team earned $3.39 million in 10 hours, wallet still holds massive chips
75% locked, selling pressure could come anytime
Eric denied new coin rumors, hype cooling down
ATH 75 → current 2.3, 96% of holders underwater
Resistance above: 2.50 → 2.80 → 3.00 → 3.50-3.6
Support below: 2.20-2.25 → 2.00 → 1.70-1.8
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If 2.20-2.25 stabilizes + volume increases with bullish candle, lightly go long targeting 2.50-2.80, stop loss at 2.10. If it breaks 2.20 with volume, lightly short targeting 2.00-1.80, stop loss at 2.35.
Swing traders:
Wait for a pullback to 2.0-2.2 to enter, target 3.0-3.5, stop loss below previous low.
Risk control:
Position ≤ 1-3% of total funds, this is not BTC
Always set stop loss, meme coins can halve anytime
Watch: team wallet movements, Trump X statements, whether BTC can hold 80,000
Midterm elections approaching, political black swan risk rising
TRUMP coin, simply put—
When Trump is on stage, it can rise; when the team sells, it must fall. You profit from hype, lose by holding the bag.
At 2.3, do you dare to bet?
TRUMP coin
Do you think it can return to 3.5 before the midterm elections?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #宇树上市后连续回落，估值如何定价？
The leader has something to say
Yushi Technology opened at 1100 yuan on the first day, rising 629%, with a market value once reaching 444.9 billion. On August 24th, it closed at 603 yuan, down about 45% from the opening high, but still up 300% from the issue price of 150.8 yuan.
Revenue was 1.152 billion, net profit 274 million, and performance is indeed growing. But a market value of over 240 billion corresponds to 1.152 billion in revenue, with a PS exceeding 200 times. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter dropped 48% year-on-year, so the full-year profit level still needs to be observed.
There are two drivers behind the surge on the first day. Being the first humanoid robot stock, the track is scarce, and the market is willing to pay a premium. But the circulation ratio was extremely low at the beginning of the listing, with no price limits, so the liquidity premium was amplified to the extreme, essentially making it mostly a chip game.
The continuous decline is within expectations. The market is starting to shift focus from the robot concept to commercialization progress, order growth, and profitability. After the premium brought by the low circulating shares fades, what remains is the real fundamental valuation. The intraday low of 588 yuan is already close to four times the issue price; whether it can hold depends on orders and delivery data.
The impact on the market is relatively indirect. A super IPO in the A-share market temporarily siphoned off some funds. But Yushi's continuous decline indicates cooling sentiment, and the overflow funds may instead flow back to the crypto market. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Bitcoin is fluctuating around 80,000, all long positions have been exited waiting for a pullback. Nvidia's earnings report, PCE, and Powell's speech are concentrated midweek, so no heavy bets on direction. SPCX base positions continue, adjustments in storage and others will be made later.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.Many people overlook a reality: after the same round of rally ends, the shakeout logic of BTC and ETH is completely different.
$BTC has a large amount of chips in a long-term dormant state. After a big surge, major holders tend to hold and wait rather than sell off massively. The pullback mainly comes from liquidation shocks of contract leverage, making the downward rhythm relatively mild. ETH's chip liquidity is much higher. After a significant rally, swing profit-taking and unlocked staked floating chips will concentrate on fleeing. Even if the overall market does not show obvious weakness, $ETH will still experience an independent retracement.
This is the tormenting part of the high-level phase: the overall market looks relatively stable, but the ETH retracement on hand exceeds expectations. Do not simply use BTC's resistance to decline to predict ETH's support strength. In a high-level oscillation market, ETH's support will be more fragile. When trading with leverage, position size and stop-loss standards must be treated differently for the two coins; one set of parameters cannot be universally applied.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ ？ #贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值 When $SNDK pulled back to 1549.2, I immediately checked the on-chain position distribution. At that time, the top whale addresses started unloading and transferring out, but the number of retail addresses was still increasing—a typical shift of chips from strong hands to weak hands.
The price hit a new high, but the holding structure was deteriorating. On the day of confirming the transfer out, I went 50x short. Now at 1509.42, with an unrealized profit of 128.38%. I set a stop loss to lock in costs and let the remaining position run profits. If you missed it, next time when whales unload, I'll be earlier to act. $BTC $ETH $SUI Today's Trend Analysis: The "Long-Short Meat Grinder" at $0.81, Directional Choice Below the 84-Cent Ceiling
On August 25, SUI traded with extremely low volume near $0.81, moving sideways. At the time of writing, it is around $0.81, with a 24-hour increase of only 0.32%. The intraday low touched $0.79 before finding support and rebounding. Market capitalization is approximately $3.27 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $775 million.
The recent rise is closely linked to the overall market recovery. Bitcoin's return above $80,000 has created a bullish environment for altcoins. SUI has gained over 22% in the past week, outperforming the overall crypto market's roughly 10% increase. However, today's market is almost "still"—the MACD histogram has returned to zero, indicating not healthy consolidation but a "market holding its breath": buyers have exhausted momentum from the previous rally but have not yet committed to the next push.
Technically, a "falling wedge" pattern is forming. Analysts note that on the 4-hour chart, SUI has formed a potential bullish falling wedge, with buyers repeatedly defending the $0.81 support zone. A valid breakout above the $0.83–$0.84 resistance could target $0.87 on the upside. However, resistance above is unusually dense: $0.84 coincides exactly with the upper Bollinger Band, and $0.86 aligns with the 200-day moving average—this is the institutional dividing line between bull and bear markets. SUI currently trades below this line, meaning from a macro perspective it remains in a "rebound mode" rather than a "bull market chart." On the downside, $0.79 (7-day moving average) is the intraday dynamic support, $0.78 is a more critical recent defense line, with deeper support at $0.76 and $0.72 (overlapping 20-day and 50-day moving averages).
Signals from the derivatives market are cautionary. Nearly 75% of top traders hold long positions, with retail investors at 71%—this is not "conviction" but a "consensus bet," which in leveraged crypto markets often gets punished before rewards are realized. More importantly, the buy-to-sell order ratio is only 0.71, meaning aggressive sellers are offloading nearly twice the volume of buyers—someone is quietly "distributing chips to the long wall." Open interest has slightly increased by 0.67%, and new capital still chooses to go long. This combination of "extremely bullish positioning, net order outflow, and zero momentum" is a textbook precursor to a long squeeze.
Fundamentals show both positives and concerns. Today, tZERO announced a strategic partnership with the Sui blockchain, directly integrating the Sui network to support issuance, custody, trading, and settlement of regulated digital asset securities. Sui network's daily transaction volume surpassed 8.5 million, a three-month high. Additionally, Sui launched Squid Mode, allowing AI agents to use wallets without surrendering private keys. However, Phantom wallet announced it will stop supporting the Sui network on September 24, and stablecoin supply has dropped from a peak of $1.6 billion in May 2025 to about $478 million, signaling capital outflow worth monitoring.
Risk Warning: SUI is currently in a "compressed spring" state—average daily true range is about $0.06, meaning it can swing from $0.81 to $0.87 or $0.75 in a single day. Whether $0.84 can be effectively broken will determine the short-term direction—if volume surges and healthy capital inflows accompany a breakout above $0.84, $0.87 and even $0.95 are possible; if it is rejected near 84 cents and falls back, losing $0.79 could open deeper correction space. Investors are advised to strictly control position sizes, avoid chasing with high leverage, and closely monitor the battle between $0.84 resistance and $0.78 support.$PEPE meme pumped to 0.000004072, my first reaction was to check on-chain data. At that time, the number of non-zero balance addresses started to turn down, indicating retail investors were exiting at the top, and the number of holders was shrinking.
The price was still at the peak but user count was declining, a typical distribution end phase. After confirming the turn, I entered a 50x short position, now at 0.000003959, with an unrealized profit of 138.75%. Stop loss locked in the cost, letting the remaining profit run.
For friends who missed it, next time when the number of holding addresses turns, I will give an early alert. $BTC $ETH Oil prices continue to weaken, entering a low-level consolidation after a sharp drop
International crude oil has not completed a trend reversal, overall maintaining a downward trend and fluctuating in a low range. On August 24, Brent and WTI crude oil both fell about 2.4%, with Brent closing at $92.17 per barrel and WTI at $85.01 per barrel; although there was a slight rebound during trading on August 25, the market's reaction to the new round of US sanctions on Iran was muted, with no significant safe-haven buying inflow.
The core logic has three points:
First, the market judges that the actual implementation strength of this round of Iran sanctions is limited, and it is difficult to cause a substantial contraction in global crude oil supply in the short term, cooling expectations of supply disruption.
Second, oil prices had risen for six consecutive trading days previously, accumulating a considerable gain, leading to concentrated profit-taking on August 24, with bulls actively reducing positions.
Third, the market anticipates that the US approach will mainly be economic pressure without escalating military conflict for now, and the geopolitical premium on shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz continues to fade.
However, there is a bottom-line support for the downside: the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil transportation. If Iran takes countermeasures to disrupt passage through the channel, oil prices will quickly reprice geopolitical risks and rebound. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #US launches economic isolation against Iran, why did oil prices fall? US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a "economic isolation" move, expanding sanctions to five major areas: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels blacklisted. After the news landed, the market showed a divergent trend: WTI and Brent both fell more than 2%, Brent closed at $92.17, and further dropped below $89 intraday today; meanwhile, COMEX gold rose above $4700, hitting a three-month high, and $BTC broke through the 80,000 mark in one go.
The geopolitical tension caused oil prices to fall, explained by three layers of logic: First, buy the rumor, sell the fact. Brent had risen over 12% in the past two weeks, with traders already pricing in the US's geopolitical premium on Iran. When the boot actually dropped, the first reaction of funds was to take profits, not chase higher.
Second, sanctions do not equal supply cut. This is financial and economic isolation, not a military strike, nor a direct blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's crude oil exports have not been physically cut off in the short term, so there is no substantial impact on the supply side. Moreover, OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months since Q2, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have ample spare capacity, and any gap can be filled at any time, so the market is not panicking.
Third, Iran is signaling easing. President Ebrahim Raisi stated the desire to rationally get out of the "neither war nor peace" state. Translated, this means no real desire for war, directly discounting expectations of conflict escalation.
In short: the strait remains open, sanctions are just talk; if it were truly closed, prices would be dirt cheap now, but that's another story. $BTC Post-Rebound Major Chip Reshuffle: BTC vs ETH, Which Has a Healthier Position Structure?
After the violent rebound in the crypto market in August, it entered a high-level consolidation phase. BTC has been tugging between $75,000 and $79,000 repeatedly, while ETH fluctuates widely between $2,380 and $2,580. On the surface, this looks like a technical consolidation after a rise, but essentially it is a profound reshuffle of chips — funds with different attributes are redistributing, rotating, and settling between the two leading coins. Although both are in consolidation, the chip reshuffle logic of BTC and ETH is completely different, and the health of their position structures varies greatly, directly determining the stability and explosive potential of subsequent market trends.
BTC’s chip reshuffle follows a route of institutionalization of existing chips, showing healthy characteristics of "circulation contraction, cost elevation, and position concentration." The core change during this rebound is not how much the price has risen, but that chips are undergoing a large-scale transfer from short-term investors to long-term institutions. On the capital side, the US spot BTC ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $1.92 billion, hitting a nearly 10-month high. Leading institutions like BlackRock have used real capital to absorb the selling pressure from continuous redemptions of Grayscale GBTC, concentrating the stock chips of old-generation institutional products into new-generation leading institutions. On-chain data confirms this: in the past two weeks, the net outflow of BTC from all exchanges exceeded 13,000 coins, with whales and institutions continuously moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking. The proportion of active chips in circulation continues to decline, and the share controlled by long-term holders has reached a new high since December 2023.
This reshuffle directly solidifies the bottom support of the market. The $75,000 level is the core cost zone for institutional accumulation this round; every time the price dips to this level, there is quick support that lifts it back up, forming an unbreakable short-term support. The stagnation above the $80,000 mark essentially reflects the concentrated unlocking of trapped positions formed between $78,000 and $82,000 by the end of 2025. Retail chips are rotating at high levels to institutional funds, steadily raising the market’s average holding cost. This one-in-one-out process saw no panic selling or leveraged liquidations, representing a typical healthy mid-uptrend rotation.
ETH’s chip reshuffle shows a layered characteristic of a solidified base and an active upper layer, overall a differentiated pattern of "solid bottom support and intense upper-layer competition." The stability of the base chips is even stronger than BTC’s: as of late August, the total staked amount on Ethereum reached 41.89 million coins, accounting for 34.7% of total supply, a new historical high. More than one-third of circulating chips are locked long-term in staking contracts, almost not participating in secondary market trading, effectively sealing off deep downside from the supply side. This is the fundamental reason why ETH can recover every time it pulls back to key levels.
However, the chip structure on the upper trading side is far less healthy than BTC’s. On one hand, institutional ETF holdings are clearly insufficient: last week, spot ETH ETF net inflows were $697 million, only about one-third of BTC’s, and highly concentrated in a single BlackRock product, lacking industry-wide systematic accumulation support. The depth and breadth of institutional base holdings are far inferior to BTC’s. On the other hand, the proportion of short-term trading chips is too high: during this rebound, ETH perpetual contract positions fluctuated over 12% in a single day, funding rates once surged to a high of 0.08%, with a large amount of short-term speculative and leveraged funds gathering in derivatives markets. The ETH balance on spot exchanges also showed a slight rebound. This results in ETH’s characteristic of "a bottom that can’t be easily broken but a top that rises quickly," with the base staking supporting the price floor and upper sentiment funds amplifying volatility, making chip stability weaker than BTC’s.
In the short term, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting at the end of the month will accelerate this chip reshuffle. Under the baseline scenario, the Fed maintains a neutral stance, BTC will continue to complete rotation amid consolidation, further optimizing its position structure; ETH will continue layered competition with wide fluctuations. In an optimistic scenario, dovish policies push the market upward, BTC breaking through $80,000 will trigger new trapped position rotations, while ETH may rapidly surge on sentiment but with increasing chip looseness. In a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance triggers a pullback; BTC has institutional base support limiting the decline, while ETH may face concentrated liquidations of upper-layer leveraged positions, causing significantly larger volatility.
Overall, BTC’s chip reshuffle is a healthy optimization across the entire chain, with increased institutional holding ratios, reduced circulating chips, and elevated average costs, making the market more stable and suitable for mid-term allocation strategies. ETH’s reshuffle is a differentiated layered pattern, solid at the base but volatile at the top, with high elasticity but also high volatility, better suited for swing trading strategies. Operationally, BTC can be held as a base position, with phased accumulation near $75,000 on dips; ETH should be taken profit on rallies and bought on dips with strict position and leverage control, seizing timing differences in the chip reshuffle process. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 With the midterm elections approaching, VIX futures have already started pricing in — 17.4 for September, 19 for October, 19.7 for November; volatility is rising, and the market is preparing for the outcome.
My judgment is:
If Trump wins, $BTC and $ETH can hold in the short term and have a bottom in the long term. He will likely promote crypto heavily — capital gains tax adjusted for inflation, signing executive orders to push BTC reserves; these messages are enough to trigger a market pulse.
Coinbase's policy chief also said the Trump administration is "more likely" to pass crypto-supportive legislation. At least he won’t actively suppress it, which gives the industry some breathing room. Even if policy implementation is slow, it’s good that things won’t worsen in the short term.
If Trump loses, the Democrats will continue to crack down on crypto; $BTC and $ETH will suffer short-term pain, but it might not be a bad thing. Increased regulation will push prices down for a while, and bills will continue to be stalled.
But from another perspective — if crypto isn’t big enough, they won’t bother fighting it. Continuous pressure will only force the industry to accelerate compliance, which in the long run will attract more institutional capital.
Whether it hurts in the short term depends on who wins, but crypto won’t die.
80% of midterm election years have higher volatility than the previous year. I haven’t changed my position and will wait for the shoe to drop before acting. The bias is bullish, but I’m not betting on the short term. Abolish the four-year halving? Veteran privacy coin Zcash sparks a monetary policy revolution
As a loyal follower of the Nakamoto halving model, the veteran privacy coin Zcash officially launched a disruptive network-wide referendum on August 25.
The core issue of this referendum is whether to completely abolish the traditional four-year stepwise halving mechanism and instead adopt a smooth, slowly decaying linear inflation curve. Meanwhile, the community is also discussing major monetary policy adjustments such as shortening block times and returning part of the transaction fees back to the funding pool.
Why does Zcash want to overhaul the halving rule that has been in place for ten years? The core pain point lies in the severe backlash of the stepwise halving on network security. After every hard halving in history, miners' block rewards were instantly cut in half. If the coin price did not double accordingly, many miners would be forced to shut down due to unprofitable operations, triggering a network-wide hash rate crash and increasing the risk of 51% attacks.
The logic behind the smooth decay curve is to spread the cliff-like supply contraction evenly across each block, while locking in the ultimate hard cap of tokens, providing miners with a more predictable long-term revenue expectation and completely smoothing out the large fluctuations in hash rate cycles.
Combined with recent regulatory expectations as Grayscale applies for a spot ETF conversion, this governance referendum not only helps ZEC shed the stereotype of a zombie old coin but also sparks a broad industry discussion on the feasibility of PoW public chain economic models in the post-halving era.
Do you support the public chain continuing to adhere to the four-year hard halving, or shifting to a smooth decay curve? A CLEAR LIQUIDITY ROTATION IS PLAYING OUT BETWEEN CRYPTO AND US STOCKS TODAY.
The S&P 500 is up 0.26%, adding $240 billion to US stocks.
$BTC Bitcoin is down 3% from its day high, wiping out roughly $48 billion from its market cap.
$BTC Bitcoin started dumping at almost the exact moment US stock futures bottomed and reversed higher.$SNDK opened with a plunge; is technology really dead?
Many people don't understand. Clearly, the US-Iran conflict is easing, crude oil is falling, US bonds are dropping, so logically it should be good for storage and technology. Why then is SanDisk still falling? Why is technology still plunging? Is technology really dead?
First, we need to understand why SanDisk is still so weak by analyzing a few points.
First, although the overall market environment is recovering and indeed somewhat favorable to technology and SanDisk, SanDisk's previous gains were too high, so profit-taking by investors is normal.
Second, the market is waiting for a financial report, that of Nvidia. It can be said that Nvidia's earnings report is the key to whether AI can continue. If it exceeds expectations, storage will continue to go crazy. Nvidia is the switch that determines the continuation of this AI wave.
Third, Apple is seeking deeper cooperation with Chinese storage companies, which is also a key factor affecting SanDisk's market share.
Although the overall market environment is recovering, geopolitical conflicts are not yet resolved, and the market is watching what kind of answer Nvidia can deliver. After all, prices have been falling continuously, so be prepared for a potential sharp pullback.
Putting these aside, SanDisk is currently struggling to break through the 1580 resistance level, but I personally remain optimistic. After all, Hynix is still very strong. I think this wave looks more like a shakeout before good news, making room for gains and a better upward breakout. #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ BTC and ETH may rally together, but their shakeout behavior can be completely different. $BTC has a huge amount of long-term dormant supply. After a strong rally, many major holders tend to keep holding rather than aggressively sell. As a result, BTC pullbacks are often driven more by leveraged liquidations, making the decline relatively controlled. $ETH is different. Its supply has much higher active liquidity. After a major move, swing traders taking profits and previously locked/staked supply$SOXL Today's Trend Analysis: The Semiconductor Roller Coaster of a Triple-Leveraged Crash and Rebound from $302 to $106
On August 25, the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF Direxion (SOXL) experienced severe volatility. During regular trading hours, it plunged 7.83%, closing at $111.16; intraday it hit a low of $106.00. However, it rebounded 2.85% in the subsequent after-hours trading to $114.33. As of today's close, SOXL has retraced over 60% from its previous high of $302.
The direct trigger for this round of sharp decline was a systemic sell-off in the semiconductor sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.7% on Monday, with the memory chip sector collectively plunging—SanDisk dropped over 6%, Micron Technology fell 5.83%. The plunge of SOXL's largest holding, Micron Technology, directly dragged down the ETF's performance. The core negative news was that the Trump administration might allow Apple to source Chinese DRAM and NAND flash chips for some product lines, sparking market fears of U.S. semiconductor market share being replaced. Meanwhile, ahead of Nvidia's earnings report (to be released August 26), market risk aversion increased, accelerating capital withdrawal from high-volatility leveraged products.
However, the other side of the crash was a frenzy of capital inflows. From August 17 to 24, South Korean retail investors net bought $712.91 million of SOXL, ranking first among all U.S. stock ETFs. Over the past month (July 22 to August 21), South Korean investors net bought $598 million of SOXL. This "buying the dip" behavior by retail investors sharply contrasts with institutional fund withdrawals.
Technically, extremely weak signals are present. SOXL hit a low of $106 today—exactly the bottom area tested multiple times since July. The MACD is extremely bearish, and $116.68 has become a strong resistance. Key levels: the first resistance above is in the $113–$116 range—if the after-hours rebound can effectively break through and hold, a short-term recovery above $120 is possible; but if it is resisted and falls back near $116, downside risk remains. The $106 level below is the most important current support—if effectively broken, it could open a decline to $100 or even lower. The higher resistance at $154–$155 is the level that must be broken to reverse the medium-term trend.
Risk Warning: SOXL is a triple-leveraged ETF with extreme intraday volatility. The current price has been halved twice from the $302 high, but the trend reversal is not yet confirmed. Nvidia's earnings report tomorrow is the biggest uncertainty—brokerages generally describe it as "a quarterly nationwide referendum on the AI sector." If the report exceeds expectations, SOXL may see a violent rebound; if it falls short, the triple leverage will amplify the decline. Investors are advised to strictly avoid high-leverage operations, closely monitor the $106 support level and Nvidia's earnings results, and wait for a clear direction before making decisions. $BTC has bounced after a day of correction and is once again testing the 8W resistance zone, currently holding steady around $79,000. 🚀 After several consecutive days of gains, the market is consolidating rather than experiencing a sharp pullback toward the 7W support. This kind of controlled correction can be a healthy sign, allowing the previous trend to strengthen. The $79K–$80K zone is now the key area to watch. A clean breakout and sustained move above $80K could open the door for furtherSuppose you are bullish on BTC in the long term but expect a pullback in the coming weeks. How would you respond?
The most obvious approach might be to sell some spot holdings and buy back after the price drops.
But the problem is, you not only have to decide when to sell, but also when to buy back (two decisions). If the market doesn't pull back, you might not be able to restore your original spot position.
Another approach is to keep your spot holdings unchanged and hedge with leverage to reduce net exposure.
For example, if you hold 10 BTC, you only hedge 3 of them. When the price drops, profits from the short position can offset some of the spot losses; when the price rises, you retain most of your long exposure (the short position is closed without two separate timing decisions).
Objectively speaking, leverage itself is neither "good" nor "bad"; the difference lies in how people use it—whether as a "trading strategy" or a "gambling tool."
Here comes another question: how to choose the tool?
Many people immediately think of perpetual contracts when they hear leverage. But there is also a tool called Margin Trading (spot leverage).
The biggest difference between it and perpetuals is that one trades real spot assets, while the other trades price contracts; also, their cost structures differ.
The core holding cost of perpetuals is the funding rate, which can remain negative during crowded one-sided short positions. Using perpetuals to hedge in this case results in continuous erosion, which is unfavorable.
If you use spot leverage, it means borrowing BTC → selling at a high price → buying back after the price drops → repaying the borrowed BTC.
The hedging effect is the same, but the cost structure changes to: trading fees + market borrowing interest rates #美启动对伊经济孤立, why have oil prices fallen? I believe the core reason is not "sanctions negative for crude oil," but rather the market trading "sanctions being milder than expected + the conflict may be cooling down." The market originally feared a "military escalation," but it turned into an "economic war." The U.S. launched the so-called "Operation Economic Outcast," aiming mainly to cut off Iran's economic and financial lifelines, including oil revenues, and to expand sanctions on related entities. The problem is: what the market truly fears is not the sanctions on Iran's economy, but the complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the inability of oil tankers to pass, and the sudden interruption of Gulf oil supplies. This time, the signals sent by the U.S. are more inclined to: " Forcing Iran to make concessions through economic pressure rather than immediately expanding military strikes. " Therefore, the market has actually eased fears of short-term supply disruptions. The Reuters report also pointed out that traders believe this round of measures will have a shorter direct impact on crude oil supply than expected, causing oil prices to plunge by 2. More importantly: the market is starting to bet on a "final negotiation of the conflict," which may be the most noteworthy point. If the U.S. escalates military actions: war escalation → Hormuz risk ↑ → crude oil supply risk ↑ → oil price ↑ But now it has become: economic sanctions ↑ → Iranian economic pressure ↑ → negotiation/ceasefire probability ↑ → probability of Hormuz returning to normal ↑ → crude oil risk premium ↓ → oil price ↓ So the current oil price trading is actually not about "U.S. sanctions on Iran."It's been just over a month since around 60K, and $BTC has already touched near 80K again. Does the logic of "finding the bottom in September-October" within the four-year cycle still hold?
This is a question I've been considering and thinking about recently. Honestly, I’m more inclined to believe that this cycle still exists...
BTC has risen more than 20% in the past week, now approaching $80,000. The US spot BTC ETF saw nearly $2 billion inflow last week, one of the strongest weeks since October last year.
Capital and price are both coming back; this round definitely can’t be simply treated as an ordinary rebound.
But actually, we all know that according to the strict four-year cycle theory, the bottom of this bear market should be around October.
However, there is one aspect of the four-year cycle that is particularly easy to misunderstand: completing the bottom formation around September-October does not mean the lowest price must appear in September-October.
For example, the previous 60K area might already be the lowest point of this round, and the subsequent movement could be:
60K → 82K → 72K / 75K → 90K
The price bottom comes out early, and then in autumn, a major pullback forms a Higher Low. The timing of the cycle bottom can still hold.
This is actually the scenario I currently lean towards.
The second scenario is a bit more painful.
BTC continues to surge to 83K–85K, everyone starts shouting new bull market, then it falls back to 70K, 65K, or even near 60K. If it can’t even hold the previous 60K, then this round is just a very strong large-scale rebound within the bear market, and the four-year cycle’s autumn bottom search regains dominance.
The third scenario to keep in mind: the four-year cycle itself is either accelerating or weakening.
Now ETFs, institutional funds, publicly listed companies holding coins, and the derivatives market are completely different from 2018 and 2022. The cycle can be referenced, but if you blindly short just because "October must be the bottom," I think you might easily get yourself wiped out.
So for now, I won’t rush to declare a new bull market, nor will I short against this upward trend just because of the four-year cycle.
What I want to see now is the first truly decent daily pullback.
Short term, watch around 78K first, then 74K–75K below that.
If it pulls back from 82K–85K and holds near 75K, then breaks the previous high again, this Higher Low is much more important to me than "BTC rose another 5% today."
Conversely, if after this surge it falls back below 70K, even eventually breaking through 60K, then finding a real major bottom again in September-October also makes perfect sense.
So my current baseline idea is simple: I’m more inclined to think the earlier low has a chance to be the final price bottom, but there will most likely be a real major pullback testing the bulls this autumn.
Whether that pullback breaks the previous low or not, there might be a Higher Low — a higher low point.
That is the most important card for me to judge whether this round is truly a new bull market.
If by October there is no pullback at all, then it can basically be concluded that the previous range from just over 50K to over 60K basically formed a bottom.
If after these days the market starts a pullback curve, then the next pullback will basically be the bottom of this bear market.
So from the current situation, the trend direction throughout September will be extremely important and will determine whether everyone can truly catch this bottom.
Still a bit hopeful... $MU Today's Trend Analysis: The $910 Level Lost and Regained, a "Roller Coaster" Day for the Memory Chip Sector
On August 25, Micron Technology (MU) experienced intense volatility. During regular trading on Monday (August 24), MU plunged 5.83%, closing at $910.43, with a trading volume reaching $27.141 billion, ranking second in U.S. stock market turnover. Intraday, it dropped as much as 7%, hitting a low of $887.60. However, in the subsequent overnight session, MU rebounded 0.72% to $916.97; pre-market on Tuesday it further rose over 2% to $928.95. At the time of writing, MU is fluctuating around the $920 mark.
The direct trigger for this sharp decline was a combination of multiple factors. First, Samsung Electronics' shareholder return plan announced last week disappointed the market — the Q3 dividend was lower than expected and no stock buyback plan was announced. As the industry leader, this negative sentiment directly dragged down the memory sector. Second, regulatory policy rumors sparked panic — there were market rumors that the Trump administration might allow Apple to source Chinese DRAM and NAND flash chips for some product lines, raising concerns about Micron's supply chain market share being replaced. Additionally, ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, market risk aversion increased, with funds taking profits from previously high-valued chip stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 4% on Monday, putting collective pressure on the sector.
Technically, the picture is mixed. After holding above three moving averages for six consecutive days, MU broke below all three on Monday, with the 30-day moving average (MA30) at $924.92 becoming immediate resistance. The RSI is around 48.76-54.34, in a neutral zone; the MACD is flashing a sell signal, indicating weakening short-term momentum. Key levels: resistance is at the $930 mark — if MU can regain and hold above this, bullish signals will reactivate, with the next target at the $950-960 gap; support is at $900 — if broken, it may trigger technical selling pressure, seeking a secondary bottom near $740, implying a potential correction of about 18%. Wider support and resistance zones are at $860 and $975 respectively.
The long-term fundamental logic remains unchanged. Micron's CEO previously stated that AI fundamentally changes the demand logic for memory chips, with data center customers' purchasing intentions about 150% of the actual committed supply. HBM spot prices have risen sevenfold, and Micron's revenue surged 345.8% year-over-year. However, Micron's fiscal 2026 capital expenditure has been raised from $18 billion to $27 billion, with all incremental investment directed toward HBM and advanced DRAM. Analyst consensus from TipRanks shows 30 analysts rating it a buy and only 1 hold, with an average target price of $1559.14, implying over 70% upside. Mizuho lowered its target from $1375 to $1300; UBS maintains a $1625 target.
Risk Warning: The short-term trend of the memory chip sector heavily depends on Nvidia's earnings guidance on Wednesday and regulatory policy direction. Profit-taking pressure under high valuations should not be ignored. Investors are advised to closely monitor the $900 support level, strictly control position risk, and wait for Nvidia's earnings release before making decisions.Kazakhstan has cut its 2026 oil production target by 2 million tons, triggered by an attack on Caspian pipeline facilities. Many people's first reaction is, why should I trade BTC by watching oil fields?
This kind of thinking is precisely the root cause of position liquidations. $BTC, after the launch of spot ETFs, has completely settled as the most sensitive microscope for global macro liquidity.
A 2 million ton shortfall thrown into the current tense geopolitical situation and disrupted Hormuz Strait transportation will instantly raise risk premiums. The surge in oil prices drives up basic energy costs, quickly permeating to the consumer end and pushing inflation higher.
Once inflation rebounds, the Fed's rate cut expectations will be wiped out, and the rate hike window may even reopen. High interest rates directly drain marginal market liquidity, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index.
When risk-free yields become attractive enough, institutional funds' models will automatically de-risk, withdrawing from high Beta assets and flowing into gold and U.S. Treasuries.
On the surface, it is a distant pipeline attack, but within hours it completes the transmission of "supply contraction—oil price surge—inflation rebound—tightening expectations—liquidity drain," ultimately directly breaching your liquidation price.
Treating BTC as an asset independent of macro factors, only focusing on K-lines and on-chain chips, is like a blind person touching an elephant under the current capital structure. To understand Bitcoin, you must first understand macro liquidity. #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC has been like a roller coaster these past two days. Are those doing T in for a treat? It just dropped to 78,000, then quickly rose to 79,168, with a slight 0.23% decline over 24 hours and trading volume still above $56 billion. Before the U.S. stock market opened this morning, it once surged to 81,235, now fluctuating around the 79,000 mark.
Breaking it down, over the past week it rose from 64k to 81k, a 26% increase. Three forces are driving this: the Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, which lowered long-term yields; the White House held a crypto regulatory meeting last week, improving policy expectations; and the most hardcore is the spot $BTC ETF net inflow of about $1.92 billion last week, showing real institutional money buying.
But the Fear and Greed Index has reached 82, entering the "Extreme Greed" zone. This is not a healthy moderate rise; emotions are pushing the price. The 81,235 high this morning looks more like a short-term FOMO spike, not sustained institutional buying.
Kuzi thinks structurally, 80,000 is both a psychological barrier and a previous high concentration area. The short-term support is between $77,000-$78,000; breaking below that points to $75,600.
So Kuzi's judgment: the breakout is real, but the pullback after the breakout is also real. The short-term trend is bullish, but chasing highs carries more risk than opportunity. Those with heavy positions should lock in profits; those without positions might wait for it to prove 80,000 can hold.
The trend is there, but in times of extreme greed, patience is more valuable than courage. As the saying goes, "Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy!"
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $SOL weekly +25%, 100x long position floating profit 1416%, hitting the standard rotation path of "BTC short squeeze → capital overflow → high Beta leaders relay."
Logic review: On August 25, BTC broke through $81,000, clearing $260 million shorts in 4 hours and $650 million shorts throughout the day, driving altcoin market resonance. As a top market cap high Beta public chain leader, SOL became the first choice for capital overflow. From 85.84 to 100.75, SOL not only benefited from BTC's short squeeze Beta bonus but also added its own catalysts: Agave v4.2 upgrade and Solana network's weekly record of processing 1.3 billion non-voting transactions.
Discipline: BTC is currently oscillating around 81,000, SOL is seriously overbought before the 100 mark. 100x leverage has zero tolerance for error; after floating profits exceed 14x, lock in principal in batches, set a hard stop loss at 93 for profit positions, and avoid the Friday PCE data release period. $BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #TreasuryEyesTGABuybacks The U.S. Treasury is reportedly considering whether its Treasury General Account could help finance additional purchases of long-term government bonds. The TGA, effectively the government’s account at the Federal Reserve, contains roughly $935 billion to $950 billion. Treasury has already increased its long-duration buyback limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, beginning September 9. The exact scale of any TGA-funded expansion remains unclear.
Using the account could temporarily improve demand for long bonds and release liquidity into the financial system. However, this would not be Federal Reserve quantitative easing, and the Treasury cannot permanently solve high yields by rearranging its cash and debt maturity profile. Persistent deficits, heavy issuance and inflation expectations will continue influencing borrowing costs. Gold and Bitcoin could benefit if the policy weakens the dollar or is interpreted as financial repression. The market should wait for confirmed size and timing before treating the entire TGA balance as available stimulus.The U.S. suddenly takes a hard line on Iran, but oil prices don't rise; the real changes may just be beginning
Originally, it was expected that once sanctions escalated, oil prices would explode first.
However, this time the market gave a completely opposite answer: after the U.S. announced the launch of an "economic isolation action" against Iran, oil prices actually fell.
This is the most noteworthy aspect of this matter.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash $BTC has exploded higher, but the speed and intensity of this move make me cautious rather than blindly bullish. At first glance, it looks like the bull market has arrived. But underneath the surface, the setup may be more complicated. Profit opportunities across other markets appear to be weakening, while crypto’s fragile short positioning has created the perfect environment for a powerful short squeeze. A relatively simple wave of long positioning has triggered an outsized rally. Historically,Following up on yesterday's post. I said 80,000 was a clear resistance, but it got proven wrong in the early morning—though only halfway.
First, the market: in one sentence, a fake breakout, a textbook fake breakout. BTC broke through 80,000 right at the open of the US session last night, the first time since May 15. In 24 hours, short liquidations hit $220 million. After the European close, it gave back gains and is now at 79,880, hovering around the key level. As a latecomer, this kind of move worries me: a spike up followed by a drop means heavy selling pressure above; chasing it is just carrying the bags for the whales. But this month is really impressive, with a monthly gain of +25%, the best August since 2017. ETFs are even crazier; yesterday I said $1.92 billion inflow in a single week was strong enough? Today another $338 million came in, six consecutive days totaling $2.26 billion. The incremental capital just won't stop—I'm watching this closely. Spot ETF net inflows are the hardest indicator in my eyes, more valuable than any analyst's calls.
But what really stunned me today is that the whales have stopped playing.
First, the people who understand Bitcoin best have stopped buying. Saylor's company (Strategy) issued $2 billion in new shares last week, but guess what? They didn't buy a single coin; their holdings remain at 840,000 BTC. They kept all the cash, now piling up $6.69 billion, saying they want to "keep liquidity flexible." Think about the timing—its average cost line is 75,385, the breakeven line I mentioned yesterday. The price finally recovered, but they stopped buying and hoarded cash instead. Translated into plain language: the main players are starting to defend; why should retail rush in? The real money votes: don't chase highs, don't FOMO.
Second, the shorts are still stubborn. The female CEO of Bitget publicly said she doesn't believe this rally and is placing orders waiting to catch a $50,000 falling knife. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered says $100,000 "might still be too low." Such a big divergence between bulls and bears means no one really understands this level. When I don't understand the market, I usually stay put.
There's also a new big variable: geopolitics. The US Treasury yesterday slapped sanctions on Iran's entire crypto industry—claiming an Emirati broker handled over $100 million in on-chain transfers helping Iran sell oil, listing nearly 60 entities at once. The harshest part is this is an "industry-level" designation, meaning anyone dealing with Iran's crypto business could be implicated. In short, crypto is officially labeled a sanction evasion tool, and compliance pressure will be long-term. Don't pretend you don't see it.
Technically, things look good: BTC reclaimed the first bear market trendline since 2025, and the weekly chart is above the 50-week EMA (77,251), both firsts since November. The moving averages are slowly recovering into a bullish alignment. But history throws cold water—during the 2022 bear market, BTC twice closed weekly above this line, only to fall to cycle lows afterward. This is textbook "bear market rallies." Some analysts are already warning: be cautious of a final drop and capitulation sell-off after September.
Three cold showers, none less important. One, breaking 80,000 then falling back means no firm hold; the overhead trapped positions aren't cleared, and the real test is just beginning. Two, Galaxy lost 1,789 coins (about $140 million) due to a Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability; 87% still unrecovered—your Binance hot wallet is more fragile than you think; security is no joke. Three, someone ran a $24 million crypto Ponzi scheme and faces up to 280 years in prison—this space, the ways to make money and to go to jail are sometimes just one step apart.
Finally, echoing yesterday's judgment: I said "don't talk trend unless the pullback holds above 75,000." The lows these three days were 75,560 → 76,667 → 78,711, rising day by day, with buying liquidity around 76,700 supporting it. The trend isn't broken; don't scare yourself. But since even the most knowledgeable holders are hoarding cash waiting for a pullback, I'll be honest—no chasing before 80,000 is firmly held. Once it holds or pulls back properly, then we'll talk. The first flag I planted in my circle remains standing.
[Data source: real-time as of 2026-08-25, network verified]
- Market: gate.io real-time, BTC $79,880 (24h +3.67%, high $81,269), ETH $2,482
- News: Cointelegraph 8/24-25 (BTC broke 80,000 + $220M short liquidations, ETF six-day net inflow $2.26B, Strategy issued $2B shares with zero buys/hoarded $6.69B cash, US sanctions Iran crypto industry $100M, Coldcard hack 1,789 BTC, 280-year Ponzi case, Germany MiCA adds 6 banks, Pakistan license deadline 9/5)
⚠️ Reminder as usual: all numbers are real, but with "institutional divergence + geopolitical sanctions + repeated 80,000 resistance," short-term volatility will be huge. This is a review, not a call. Don't get emotional, don't use your living expenses to catch falling knives.According to Arkham monitoring, Morgan Stanley spent $7.9 million to increase holdings by about 100.297 BTC through its spot Bitcoin ETF MSBT, bringing its total open interest to 7,000 BTC for the first time, reaching 7,096 BTC, with a current value exceeding $573 million (Source: Arkham). This marks another milestone for Morgan Stanley's continued allocation since the approval of its spot Bitcoin ETF.
Three motivations for adding positions at this point
1. Compliance channels are complete
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs provides institutions with a compliant holding path equivalent to holding equity ETFs, significantly reducing custody and legal risks.
2. Strengthening the logic of alternative hedge assets
Spot gold fell about $18 per ounce in the short term, with an intraday decline of nearly 0.7% (Source: Jinshi). Against the backdrop of Becent's bond-buying expectations boosting US dollar liquidity, the narrative of some funds flowing from gold to Bitcoin in the "digital gold" narrative has become clearer.
3. Customer Needs and Asset Management Logic
High-net-worth clients continue to see rising demand for crypto asset allocation. Including related products in the standard service system not only retains clients' asset management scale but also aligns with industry trends.
There is still room for institutional penetration in allocation
Currently, the net asset ratio of spot Bitcoin ETFs is 6.22% (source: SoSoValue), meaning ETF holdings account for only 6.22% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. Compared to traditional commodity ETFs (gold ETFs account for about 10-15% of the market cap of physical gold, the market estimates $BTC). Bitcoin has never tracked gold this closely.
For the past two and a half years, it traded more like a tech stock. That relationship has flipped.
BTC’s correlation with gold is now 0.55, an 11-year high. Its correlation with the Nasdaq is just 0.32.
Since Jan 2024, those averages were 0.11 and 0.38, respectively.
The catch is duration. This shift is only 18 trading days old, too short to call a regime change.
For now, BTC is trading more like a hard asset than a tech proxy.
#DailyOrbit This is my rather extreme view right now: I don't quite agree with the idea that "BTC climbing back above $80,000 = confirmation of a new super bull market." 📈 BTC was indeed very strong over the past week, peaking above $81,000 and a 7-day increase of nearly 25%; However, behind this round of gains are clearly driven by macro factors such as a weaker dollar, changes in US fiscal policy, and renewed ETF inflows. 🌍 So in my view, it is more like a strong rebound after liquidity and macro expectations repricing, rather than ironclad evidence that the cycle has completely reversed. What I care about most is the funding structure. 💰 Recently, US spot BTC ETFs have seen continuous inflows, with cumulative inflows approaching $2 billion over the past five trading days, indicating that institutional demand is indeed returning. 🏦 On the other hand, BTC is still clearly far from its 2025 high above $126,000, and market sentiment indicators have entered an extremely greedy zone. 😬 In other words, prices have started to take the lead, but whether the macro environment and real risk appetite can be sustained remains to be seen. Of course, I might also be completely wrong. ⚠️ If ETFs continue to attract funds, the dollar keeps weakening, and US crypto regulations become clearer, then this rally is likely just the beginning of a larger rally. 🚀 Conversely, if ETF inflows weaken again, inflation rises again, or there is sustained volume selling pressure near $80,000, I believe this rebound is likely another "market re-excitation" rally$BTC The most common mistake in this wave is not misreading the direction, but rather engaging in revenge trading due to fear of missing out. From shorting all the way from 68,000 to even adding positions up to 77,000, essentially, this is no longer trading the market but rather sulking against it.
Now BTC has broken through 80,000 dollars. The recent rise is indeed driven by ETF capital inflows, improved liquidity, and short covering. In the week of August 21, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about 1.92 billion dollars.
Therefore, I actually do not recommend you to go all in now just because you "fear missing out." If you already have short positions, the first thing is not to think about how to break even but to control the risk first. Missing a rally is not scary; the scariest thing is to keep adding positions to recover missed profits, turning one missed opportunity into a big loss.
If you want to get back in, I prefer two scenarios: first, BTC breaks and holds above 80,000 with volume, or even further breaks 82,000, confirming the trend; second, a pullback to around 75,000–77,000 with reduced volume and stabilization, then consider entering in batches. The market is clearly overheated now, and short-term pullback risks are increasing.
In short: don’t chase the market just because you fear missing out, and don’t wait for a big drop just because you have short positions. Manage your positions first, then wait for opportunities. What you should do now most is to completely separate the obsession with breaking even from the prediction that BTC must fall.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $CAP has been holding at a high level for a long time. I shorted it a long time ago, but because the market suddenly spiked before and my margin for other long positions was insufficient, I stopped out. Today, I opened a short position again, this time adjusting my position size, as my other positions don't require as much margin currently. I carefully analyzed the data again today and found that its liquidity is significantly decreasing. Personally, I believe $CAP is about to drop. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that the long-short ratio of its contracts is currently at a very low level, and the open interest is continuously declining. At this price level, the open interest is decreasing, indicating that many longs are taking profits and many shorts are stopping out. I can understand why this is happening because mainstream coins have risen very high. In this situation, longs are worried that $CAP might be dragged down by a sudden market drop. Meanwhile, shorts are reluctant to keep holding this coin; they prefer to short those mainstream coins that have already risen a lot. So, this situation has emerged. Personally, I think this coin is about to become unsustainable. —————————————————— I have already opened a short position on $CAP. I am currently bearish because the market situation is not very good. Based on my observation, the liquidity of many altcoins and mainstream coins is declining. This situation is very not BTC surged to $81,000 but was pushed back near $79,000.
The position where it got stuck this time is very critical: the 50-week moving average is currently around $81,000–$82,000.
In the past few days, BTC has consecutively reclaimed the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, but the 50-week moving average is a higher-level dividing line. Galaxy statistics show that in the past 13 bear market phases, when BTC reclaimed this moving average, 11 times the bottom had already appeared at that time.
So now the market is no longer focused on "whether it can touch 80,000," but on whether it can truly hold above 82,000 on the weekly chart.
If it holds above, this wave looks more like a trend reversal; if it continues to be pushed back, a short-term sharp rise of about 25% followed by consolidation is also very normal. $BTC #BTC触及80000美元 #比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线 $BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Oil is falling despite tougher U.S. sanctions on Iran. 🛢️📉
At the same time, $BTC is pushing above $80K.
This divergence is worth watching:
Lower oil → less inflation pressure → potentially better conditions for risk assets.
If oil stays weak while BTC holds above $80K, crypto could continue attracting liquidity.
👀 Watch the macro. The next move may not be purely about crypto.
#IranSanctionsOilFalls The recent buzz around ZEC carries a hint of "reliving old dreams." Some people dug up the all-time high of $5,900 in 2016 and shouted for bottom-fishing in the community, as if that candlestick could be drawn again. But the numbers don't lie: since that peak, the price has dropped by more than 90%, and at its dimmerest, it even approached $15—almost zero. Over the past decade, the funds trapped have piled up layer upon layer, like an unclaimed snow mountain—who will unfreeze it, and who is willing to wait? I deliberately checked the data behind on-chain and exchanges and found a detail worth noting: the ratio of long-short positions is exaggeratedly imbalanced, reaching over 7 times. Meanwhile, the unrealized profit on the books of the long sellers has already exceeded $42 million. This number itself doesn't indicate direction, but it reminds us that there are always people in the market calculating others' chips. This round of rally is less about value return and more like a carefully planned "hunting grounds operation." Creating profit-making effects at high levels, attracting new capital to follow the trend, then calmly cashing out through liquidity. Retail investors see the joy of a breakout; institutions see the thickness of their counterparts. Sharks have never been philanthropists; their goal in pushing up is often just to find someone willing to take over at higher levels. Of course, I'm not saying ZEC lacks technical accumulation or denying its community consensus as a long-established privacy coin. But against the backdrop of such heavy chip structures and concentrated floating profits, the risks and rewards of chasing high are clearly disproportionate. Every similar imbalance in history ends in a waterfall correction, just...📌 Trump’s tough stance: Mines cleared, but the war machine hasn’t stopped Trump announced that all mines in the Strait of Hormuz have been cleared and warned that any Iranian minelaying vessels will be “immediately and systematically destroyed.” He also emphasized monitoring the strait and the "Pogoshan" nuclear facility through the Space Force, enforcing a "zero tolerance" policy. Key points: · Mine clearance is a military declaration, not a peace signal — essentially a show of control, not de-escalation · The Space Force deployment means a long-term military presence — monitoring nuclear facilities is sustained pressure, not easing · Iran is being cornered — mines are gone, but minelaying threats are blocked, Iran’s countermeasures are limited, and conflict risks may shift elsewhere 📊 Impact on crypto market: Bearish ① Oil route open ≠ risk appetite recovery Clearing mines eases fears of oil disruption, but Trump’s simultaneous military buildup means geopolitical uncertainty remains. The market won’t cheer a “temporary reopening” but will be wary of the “next escalation.” ② Expectations of war ending are weakened Diplomats returning to the Middle East gave the market hope for a “war’s end,” but Trump’s statement suggests the “war has changed tactics” — from hot war to prolonged military pressure. Geopolitical risk premiums won’t disappear, only reshape. ③ Macro factors are the real bullish drivers What can truly improve crypto market sentiment isn’t the “temporary navigation” of Hormuz, but falling PCE data, a dovish Fed shift, and improved liquidity. These are sustainable drivers. 🧠 Core judgment: Mine clearance is bullish for oil prices but not for crypto #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视
The boss has something to say
NVIDIA is negotiating an investment in the AI search company Perplexity, valued at over $30 billion. The previous funding round was $20 billion, an increase of more than 50%. The financing scale is several billion dollars, with the exact amount yet to be determined. Perplexity's annualized revenue has grown from less than $250 million at the beginning of the year to over $750 million.
Price increase notices have also been sent out. AI servers delivered early next year will generally see price hikes exceeding 15%, with some GB300 and Vera Rubin 200 systems increasing by about 17%. Core customers like Microsoft, Google, and Oracle have all received price adjustment notifications.
Looking at these two things together, NVIDIA's role is changing.
Previously, it was a chip seller with pricing power at the hardware level. Now, with price increases on one hand and investments in application companies on the other, the chip supplier is transforming into a capital organizer for the AI ecosystem.
The price increase move is very smart. Storage chip costs are rising, and NVIDIA is passing these costs downstream. Cloud providers can either accept the price hikes and continue expanding or accelerate self-developed alternatives. Either way, NVIDIA is the winner.
The investment in Perplexity is even more aggressive. Perplexity is a leading player in the AI search track, with an annualized revenue of $750 million and rapid growth. NVIDIA's investment is not just for financial returns. Perplexity runs on NVIDIA's computing power, uses NVIDIA's ecosystem, and in turn provides NVIDIA with real demand scenarios.
This is a closed loop. Price increases ensure profit margins, investments bind downstream demand, and the money invested eventually returns to NVIDIA's own accounts.
Impact on NVIDIA's financial report
Earnings will be released early morning Beijing time on August 27. Market expectations are already high. After the price increase news, the gross margin guidance will be a key variable. If management confirms that the price hikes can be smoothly passed on, hardware profit margins could rise further. If cloud providers start resisting price increases and accelerate self-development, that would be a different story.
Impact on the market $BTC $ETH $SOL
After BTC rose above 80,000, it has been fluctuating, with all long positions closed awaiting a pullback. NVIDIA's earnings, PCE, and Wash's speech are concentrated midweek; any surprises could trigger significant volatility. Those holding positions should remember to set stop losses. In such a dense event window, risk control is more important than direction.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.$NVDA Nvidia's stock price has fallen for seven consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of 7.47%, wiping out over $407 billion in market value. The current market capitalization has dropped back to $5.05 trillion, approaching the $5 trillion mark. In the early hours of August 27 Beijing time (after the U.S. market close on August 26), Nvidia will release its Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings report. This report will not only determine the direction of its own stock price but also serve as a sentiment barometer for the entire global AI sector. 1. Earnings fundamentals: Institutions generally optimistic about revenue exceeding expectations Nvidia previously provided official guidance: Q2 revenue of $91 billion ±2%, GAAP gross margin of 74.9% ±50 basis points, and a full-year CPU revenue target of $20 billion. Several leading investment banks have issued optimistic forecasts: • Jefferies expects revenue for the quarter to reach $95 billion, significantly above market consensus, with next quarter's revenue guidance likely to be revised up to $108 billion; • Goldman Sachs analysts predict Nvidia's earnings per share will exceed Wall Street expectations by 6% and 12%, respectively, with a high probability of strong quarterly results; • The market consensus generally estimates revenue around $92.177 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year. Strong Blackwell chip shipments remain the core support for this round of earnings beating expectations, but even if earnings meet targets, it is difficult to directly reverse the stock price decline. The market is no longer satisfied with current numbers and is more focused on long-term growth sustainability. 2. The biggest market concern: pressure from rising memory and server prices Recent industry news indicates that the sharp rise in HBM memory costs has significantly increased pressure on transmissionMarket Brief: New Highs in the Market, Clear Signs of Lagging Growth in ZEC and HYPE
Market Overview
BTC and ETH have driven the market to continue surging, but ZEC and HYPE have not followed suit, showing sector lagging growth. The market anticipates a high probability of a pullback for both.
The core catalyst for ZEC's rise is the NYSE's approval of the Grayscale Zcash ETF listing, opening a compliant capital entry channel. However, approval does not mean immediate capital inflow; subsequent ETF trading volume and net capital inflow data are the true tests of institutional demand.
HYPE's price movement is driven by event news, with related statements indicating that Hyperliquid may enter the U.S. market in a compliant manner. This is a potential long-term positive, but policy statements are highly variable and carry significant uncertainty. Currently, the position is short to verify this market view.
Market Logic
During a broad market rally, if strong narrative coins fail to reach new highs, it signals relative weakness. After positive news is released, "buy the rumor, sell the fact" often occurs. Verbal policy support does not equal implementation and cannot be treated as a certainty.
Trading Insights
For rallies driven by positive rumors, it is essential to verify with subsequent data and not rely solely on news for decisions. As the market strengthens, some coins lag behind, so be cautious of structural pullbacks and avoid blindly bullish positions on all coins.