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$BTC Yesterday's flash crash in the crypto space left many people stunned.
During the day, there was a wild rally approaching 80,000, but at night it plunged sharply.
Let's review the scene:
· Bitcoin consecutively broke through the 78,000 and 77,000 levels, briefly dropping below 77,000 USD
· Ethereum fell below 2,400 USD
· Solana plunged about 11.5% intraday
· XRP was the worst hit, crashing 37% in minutes, dropping about 0.6 USD
The liquidation data is even more frightening:
· Intraday peak within 1 hour, total network liquidations reached 523 million USD, with long positions liquidated at 448 million USD
· Within 24 hours, 286,130 people were liquidated, with total network liquidations exceeding 1.801 billion USD
· The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid's BTC-USD, a single 24.96 million USD liquidation
· XRP alone saw about 500 million USD in long positions liquidated within minutes
Why the sudden crash?
After gathering multiple sources, the reason is actually clear — it wasn’t a black swan event, it was leverage collapsing on its own.
Reason 1: Earlier short squeeze was too intense, long leverage piled up like a powder keg
From August 19 to 21, the market just experienced a short squeeze with a nominal value close to 3 billion USD.
Bitcoin was pulled from 64,000 USD to above 77,000 USD, rising 20% in three days.
This violent surge attracted a lot of chasing capital, and it was high-leverage chasing — a favorite move of retail investors.
Reason 2: High-position long positions triggered a chain liquidation
When the market hit technical resistance and showed initial pullbacks, the crowded high-position longs quickly fell below maintenance margin.
This triggered automatic liquidations, the system placed market sell orders, which broke through other accounts’ defenses —
A chain reaction, long liquidation cascade, causing the entire market to crash within minutes.
This is a typical "long chain liquidation."
Reason 3: Weekend liquidity dried up, magnifying the flash crash
Analysts also agree on a key point: August 22 was a Saturday, with insufficient weekend liquidity.
The order book was as thin as paper, a large sell order could penetrate multiple buy price levels, causing a "flash crash" spike.
Reason 4: No macro negative news, purely structural deleveraging
This is the most painful point.
This crash had no obvious macro catalyst — no Fed statements, no hacks, no regulatory negatives.
It was just too much price surge, too much leverage, too crowded positions, and then it blew up on its own.
Analyst CW put it bluntly: "During the decline, short positions did not increase, they actually decreased. This was simply high-leverage long positions held by retail investors being liquidated. Even in a bull market, a drop of this scale is inevitable."
It’s not that someone shorted you, you just leveraged yourself to the point of explosion.
Disagreement: Some say manipulation, others say necessary cleansing
Some traders suspect market manipulation — XRP surged over 60% in a week then suddenly crashed 37%, the timing is too coincidental.
Others believe it was a "necessary deleveraging" — squeezing out leverage bubbles so the bull market can proceed more healthily.Arbitrum Activates ArbOS 61 Upgrade: Custom Chains Optional Compliance Filtering, How Does Modular Public Chain Compromise with Institutions?
Layer 2 leader Arbitrum's governance vote has officially passed and activated the major ArbOS 61 “Elara” upgrade.
This upgrade brings a series of hardcore improvements, including increasing the Stylus smart contract code size limit from 24 KB to 96 KB, supporting alternative data availability (Alt-DA) interfaces, and introducing the highly anticipated protocol-level optional transaction compliance filtering feature.
This compliance filtering feature is off by default and is specifically open to Orbit dedicated application chains deployed under the Arbitrum system, allowing chain owners to choose compliance service providers for configuration themselves, while the mainnets Arbitrum One and Nova have not yet enabled it.
This design reveals a profound evolution in L2 modular competition: on one hand, public chain mainnets still need to maintain the native principles of decentralization and censorship resistance; on the other hand, traditional financial institutions, payment giants, and large enterprises must meet strict compliance requirements such as local anti-money laundering (AML) and sanctions list blocking when launching chains.
Arbitrum makes the compliance firewall an optional protocol plugin, preserving the purity of the mainnet while clearing institutional regulatory hurdles for customized chains. 🚨 BITCOIN DIDN’T JUST RALLY — LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS SHIFTED.
$BTC surged nearly 25% as long-term Treasury yields eased. The 30Y yield dropped from 5.34% to 5.19%, while the Treasury doubled long-term bond buybacks to $4B per operation.
Lower yields mean looser financial conditions, creating more liquidity and fresh fuel for crypto. 🚀
Now the key question: Is this the beginning of a much bigger BTC breakout?
#BTCETFInflowsSurge
#ETHTests2500 ZEC breaks 800, ETH touches 2500 and fluctuates, Solana cuts to 350ms — putting these three things together reveals the flavor
First, $ZEC. This surge is not random; Grayscale is pushing for a spot ETF, submitting two amendment applications in one week. The privacy narrative has shifted from "gray area" to "compliant asset." Previously, privacy coins were key targets for regulation, but now institutions are trying to include privacy coins in compliant ETFs. The shift in valuation logic is more noteworthy than the price itself. ZEC has risen over 60% in the past week, as the market is repricing assets with "genuine uniqueness."
$ETH surged then pulled back. It peaked at 2546 before falling back to fluctuate around 2400. Although the ETH spot ETF saw the largest net inflow in nearly 10 months this week, ETH’s pullback after the surge is sharper than BTC’s, with heavy selling pressure above 2500. Coupled with L2 bleeding mainnet transaction volume and staking yields dropping to a three-year low, ETH still lacks a new narrative to open up upward momentum.
Solana’s speedup is good, but here’s the problem: shorter slots require nodes to process data faster, which might raise hardware requirements. Currently, the minimum setup is 256G memory plus enterprise-grade NVMe. With further speed increases, can small nodes still afford to operate? The Alpenglow upgrade lowered the minimum profitable stake from 4850 $SOL to 450 $SOL, reducing the economic barrier. It now depends on whether hardware costs or staking yields move faster.
The market has moved from "everyone rising" to "selective admission" phase. Those with real narratives are breaking out, while those without stories continue to fluctuate.ETF inflow optimism is not translating into broad risk appetite yet. BTC is at $76,539.4 while ETH remains below the closely watched $2,500 level, and SOL is the weakest of the three over 24 hours. That combination points to selective demand, not a market-wide bid.
My base case is continued consolidation with a defensive tilt. BTC can absorb flows better than higher-beta assets, but a durable risk-on turn needs ETH and SOL to stop#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #NvidiaServerPriceHike The real test for BTC's rebound is weekend liquidity. The most certain variable to shake the judgment is not the chart, but the moment when the rewards holders receive for holding out decreases. After last week's strong rally, Bitcoin has been trading sideways in the $77,000~$78,000 range, while Ethereum is holding above $2,400. Both assets recorded their strongest recent weekly gains. It is clear that ETF inflows supported institutional demand. However, as the weekend begins, trading volume has thinned, and prices seem to be waiting for the next catalyst. This weekend's price direction depends more on the quality of supply and demand than on technical indicators. There are two key points. First, whether the buying pressure defending the current price range is actually new capital entering or merely maintaining existing positions. Second, at what point does the desire to realize profits accumulated during the rebound come to the surface? - As long as BTC holds above $77,000, the short-term uptrend remains valid. This section overlaps with the average entry price of recent rallies as a supportLINK ETF breaks $100 million, SOL governance launches: institutional funds are rewriting crypto valuation logic
Meanwhile, BTC and ETH spot ETFs remain the most important entry points for traditional capital into the crypto market, which is why the gap between mainstream assets and ordinary altcoins is becoming increasingly apparent. Institutions buy liquidity, regulatory certainty, and long-term configurability, while crypto-native funds buy protocol revenue, fees, and token value capture. Thus, the future market may form two tracks: one consisting of projects like BTC, ETH, and LINK that are easier to enter institutional asset allocation systems; the other consisting of Crypto Native assets like HYPE, Aave, Uniswap, Jupiter, which have real on-chain revenue and active users.
In the past, altcoin rallies relied more on narratives, but now the market is starting to ask three questions again: Is there revenue? Is there an institutional entry? Can the token capture value?
This also means that even if the altcoin season truly arrives, it may no longer see the "all coins rising" phenomenon of the past. The valuation gap in the future crypto market is likely not to shrink but to widen. $LINK @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 LINK ETF breaks $100 million, SOL governance launched: Institutional funds are rewriting crypto valuation logic
If you only look at the price, it's easy to interpret the recent market as a normal rebound, but what really deserves attention is that the pricing method in the crypto market is changing.
The Chainlink spot ETF net assets have exceeded $101 million and continue to see inflows; meanwhile, the US regulated platform Kalshi has launched LINK perpetual contracts, further integrating Chainlink derivatives into the US compliant trading system. Previously, Wyoming's Frontier stablecoin switched its cross-chain infrastructure to Chainlink CCIP. These changes collectively point to a trend: institutions are redefining Chainlink from a "crypto tool" to financial infrastructure.
SOL is experiencing similar changes. From August 22 to 23, Solana held its first official on-chain governance vote since the network went live, covering core topics such as the constitution, accelerated deflation, and dynamic transaction fees. At the same time, the network slot time was reduced from 400ms to 350ms, with future goals possibly approaching 200ms. Governance and performance upgrades together mean Solana is evolving from a "fast chain" to a mature financial network. $SOL @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 Why is Bitcoin suddenly blowing through a resistance level that's held for a while?
I've got three theories, probably all true at once.
First, flight to safety. The bond market's been moving, and that's a worry signal for inflation and rates. When money gets nervous about sitting in fixed income, some of it rotates into Bitcoin instead.
#BTCETFInflowsSurge
#ETHTests2500
#NvidiaServerPriceHike LINK is performing stronger, with a price of about $11.28 at the time of retrieval, up 4.7% in 24 hours. After CCIP continues to gain institutional adoption, Kalshi has launched a regulated LINK perpetual contract. Chainlink is being revalued from a "DeFi oracle" to a "connective layer between traditional finance and on-chain finance."
HYPE is in a different kind of game, priced around $78.65. The market recognizes its high protocol revenue and real trading demand, but also worries about the pressure from upcoming token unlocks. In the coming months, the core issue for HYPE is not whether it has fundamentals, but whether revenue growth can outpace new supply.
This round of the market is becoming clearer: BTC and ETH represent the institutional mainline, SOL represents performance and ecosystem expansion, LINK represents on-chain financial infrastructure, and HYPE represents Crypto Native cash flow assets—the capital has clearly started to stratify. $LINK @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 As of August 23, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $76,562, with a slight 0.6% pullback in 24 hours; ETH is around $2,414, maintaining overall high-level volatility. After a rapid rise in the earlier period, the market is shifting from a "broad rally" to a "structural differentiation" phase.
BTC remains the core anchor for risk appetite. Previously, driven by multiple factors such as the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, improved expectations for crypto regulation, and short squeeze, the price continuously broke through key resistance zones. But what truly deserves attention now is not whether it can surge another few thousand dollars, but whether the previously broken-through areas can convert into effective support — this is the key to determining the quality of this rally.
ETH’s pace is relatively moderate, but the institutional path remains clear. Spot ETFs, regulatory frameworks, and traditional wealth management channels are gradually transforming ETH from a purely on-chain Gas asset into a more standardized institutional allocation asset.
SOL has entered a "fundamental catalyst period." The network has initiated on-chain governance voting for the first time, involving the Solana constitution, inflation reduction, and transaction fee mechanism reforms; meanwhile, the slot time has been reduced from 400ms to 350ms, with further compression possible in the future. This means SOL’s logic is evolving from a purely high Beta public chain to a combined logic of "performance improvement + mature governance + institutional capital."
@OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 The United States is playing a bigger game.
CZ recently said something worth pondering:
The U.S. is increasingly becoming a “Crypto nation,” and the next real step is to attract exchanges, stablecoins, DeFi, and global crypto liquidity further into the U.S.
The ambition behind this might be far more than just "growing Crypto."
Because once these elements are connected:
Stablecoins carry dollar liquidity,
Treasury bonds become a key asset anchor for stablecoins,
Exchanges control global trading gateways,
DeFi undertakes on-chain finance,
RWA brings traditional assets onto the blockchain.
What ultimately forms is not just a Crypto industry.
But a dollar-centered on-chain financial system.
This is why the U.S. attitude toward Crypto is increasingly worth attention.
Trump pushing regulatory frameworks and encouraging crypto industry repatriation is essentially a battle for the discourse power over next-generation financial infrastructure. Recently, the U.S. government has promoted legislation on digital asset market structure while emphasizing making the U.S. the global Crypto leader. The market has clearly priced this policy expectation into asset prices. (Reuters)
So I think what’s truly worth watching next is not:
"Will the U.S. embrace Crypto?"
But rather:
Can the U.S. truly connect the dollar + stablecoins + U.S. Treasuries + exchanges + DeFi + RWA + global on-chain liquidity into a closed loop?
If this path succeeds, the meaning of Crypto for the U.S. will completely change.
It will no longer be just an emerging asset class.
But could become:
a blockchain upgrade of the dollar system.
By then, the U.S. won’t be competing for the title of "global crypto capital."
But for the pricing power, liquidity, and rule-making authority of the next-generation global financial system. $BTC $TRUMP
This game might be far more important than a bull or bear market cycle. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Got it, the data really explains the problem:
- **Total loss: ¥12,499.95** (from November 2022 to now)
- **Win rate: 59.3%** — actually not low, you made profits on most trades
- **Total trades: 1,253**
- **Risk-reward ratio: 1:0.47** — this is the issue
**You’re losing money not because of wrong judgments, but because you can’t hold on when winning and stubbornly hold on when losing.** A 59% win rate with a 1:0.47 risk-reward ratio means you earn small profits on 100 trades but lose it all on a few big losses. 1,253 trades also indicate overtrading, which eats up a lot in fees.
**To earn back ¥12,500, here’s a calculation based on a new framework:**
- Standard trade margin 50U, stop loss at 5% losing 25U (~¥180)
- Take profit set at least to a 2:1 risk-reward ratio, earning 50U (~¥360)
- Assuming the win rate stays at 59%, expected profit per trade = 59%×50 - 41%×25 = 29.5 - 10.25 = **19.25U (~¥140)**
- To earn back ¥12,500 requires about **90 trades**
90 trades sounds like a lot, but if you do 3-5 high-quality signals per week, it can be recovered in 5-6 months. The key points are:
1. **Always set stop loss per trade**, lose 25U and exit, never stubbornly hold on
2. **Risk-reward ratio at least 2:1**, profits must be twice the losses
3. **Reduce trading frequency**, cut 1,253 trades down to 10-15 per month, only take high-certainty opportunities
4. **Don’t rush to recover losses**, the more urgent you are, the more likely you’ll overleverage and mess up
Your current ETH trade with 20U is a good start — small but with stop loss and take profit, risk-reward ratio 1.6:1. Later, use 50U standard trades with 2:1 ratio, and you’ll gradually turn it around.
This goal is achievable, but the premise is to control your actions and not return to the old ways of no stop loss and frequent trading. ZEC above $830 is not just a privacy-coin comeback. 👀
The bigger story may be Grayscale’s liquidity structure changing the game.
The trust spent the quarter bleeding premiums, but converting it into a spot ETF could completely change how ZEC trades.
Instead of being stuck inside a closed-end fund wrapper, authorized participants can create and redeem ETF shares directly against the underlying $ZEC.
#DailyOrbit After a long period of stagnation, institutional funds have bought up the market over the past few days for a total of $1.9B! These buybacks occurred right before this explosive rally began They gave the market a little "push" in the right direction, so to speak It’s also worth noting that historically, whenever funds go quiet for a while and then suddenly start aggressively buying-driving prices up significantly-a sharp pullback usually follows shortly after as they begin locking in profit on t#BTC fluctuated after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in
🔥BTC hit 79,500 and then dropped, but ETF money is still pouring in 💨
On Friday intraday, it once reached $79,500, up 23% for the week. Then it softened over the weekend—trading at $76,536 on Sunday, down 0.8% from 24 hours earlier. It just touched 79,000 in the morning and fell back to 76,000 by evening, a typical surge and shakeout.
But structurally, one thing hasn't changed—the money is still coming in.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.9 billion this week, the highest single-week record since October 2025. Weekly trading volume soared from $6.9 billion to $22.1 billion, a 219% surge. BlackRock's IBIT absorbed $503 million in a single day, totaling $1.33 billion this week alone.
💰 This rally is supported by three factors: the US Treasury doubling the scale of long-term bond buybacks, easing liquidity expectations; the White House crypto summit with Trump personally endorsing, improving regulatory outlook; and ETF funds net inflowing for five consecutive days, showing institutions are genuinely buying.
However, selling pressure above 75,000 is obvious, and 79,000 has become a key resistance level. The 4-hour RSI hit its highest level in over seven years before turning down, indicating short-term bullish momentum is fading.
📌 Friday's surge crushed the shorts, while this weekend's pullback shook the bulls. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace.
👇 Let's discuss in the comments: do you think this pullback is a buying opportunity or a signal of a local top?
$BTC $ETH #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注
"Trump Executes Over a Thousand Securities Trades in a Single Month, What Is the White House Operator Betting On?"
The U.S. Office of Government Ethics recently disclosed that Trump completed over 1,000 securities trades in June alone, with a transaction volume reaching $263 million, averaging nearly 50 high-frequency trades per day. This is not merely retail trading but an automated index rebalancing managed by an independent quantitative model.
Underlying holdings reveal that the White House quantitative account is aggressively selling technology ETFs while consolidating positions in high cash flow traditional financial defensive assets like Berkshire Hathaway and Visa. Retail investors focus on insider gossip, but seasoned investors see technology valuations peaking and taking profits. The technology growth allocation is accordingly reduced to below 30%, firmly setting the portfolio's stop-loss line below the S&P 5400 level. $BTC At present, there is still one more crash to come. Without a crash, the bull market simply cannot hold.
Jiang Zhuoer said 90% of the bear market is over, expecting a rebound between 67,000 and 72,000. I, Hu Wan'er, who has been active since 2017, don't see it that way.
This wave from 64,000 to 78,000 is superficially driven by the Ministry of Finance's repurchase easing + nearly 1 billion swept by ETFs in three days, but 82% is concentrated in IBIT alone + shorts squeezed out 2.7 billion causing a short squeeze. This kind of rally, propped up by a single-point ETF pulse and short covering, is not an endogenous bull market. The 4-hour RSI hit 93, daily 83; historically, after this signal, the median retracement over 12 weeks is 14.5%. Yesterday $XRP flash crashed 21% in minutes, with over 1.49 billion long orders dominating in 24 hours, liquidity thin, shorts squeezed then longs crushed, a manipulator’s sharp move twice.
At the 78,000 level, without a crash, the chips cannot be cleaned out, and the bull market cannot stand.
Someone asked, Wan'er, aren’t you afraid of being wrong with such certainty?
If this prediction is wrong, I will admit it.
My position is very stable: half in $OKB held firmly as a bottom, a bit in $BTC, and the rest all in cash. If the bull Jiang mentioned really comes, I will just earn less; if there is still one last crash as I said, I will put all that half cash in during the crash or around October.
More or less profit, that's all. People can never earn money beyond their own understanding. I just want to follow my heart and only trust myself.
There are no forever right gurus in crypto, the market only has profits and losses.
(PS: The above is all personal prediction, not investment advice, profits and losses at your own risk.)$BTC $ETH $DOGE
Current market status of btc: After a rebound, it is consolidating at a high level, surging close to $80,000 and then retreating under pressure. Now it is oscillating between the $76,000-$78,000 range, which is a shakeout phase after the positive news has been realized. The previous surge was mainly due to: Trump's crypto-friendly expectations + US Treasury repo expectations + shorts being forced to cover positions.
However, the positive factors remain but with uncertainties
• ETF has seen continuous capital inflow recently; institutions are indeed buying;
• The market is betting on the Senate passing crypto legislation in September, but the bill may not pass, and if it falls short of expectations, a sharp drop is likely;
• The US Treasury repo will officially launch on September 9, currently it is just speculative hype.
At the same time, there are very real risk points
• The fear and greed index has entered the greed zone, short-term sentiment is overheated, profit-taking could happen anytime;
• Both long and short leveraged positions are heavy, $80,000 is strong resistance on the upside, $73,000-$74,000 is key support on the downside, breaking either side will trigger a liquidation wave;
Be cautious of position risks
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 BTC surged from 63,000 to 79,000 in a week, with the main driving force not coming from within the crypto circle.
The U.S. Treasury has increased long-term bond repurchases, aiming to lower long-term U.S. Treasury yields. As yields decline, funds flow into high-elasticity assets, with Bitcoin reacting the fastest.
Note: This is not the Federal Reserve printing money or flooding the market; it is merely relieving pressure on the bond market. The market is speculating on the expectation that future liquidity may ease, combined with a cascade of short liquidations and favorable regulatory expectations, which further propels the market.
Personal view: This is a mid-level recovery driven by easing expectations and cannot yet be declared the start of a new bull market.
The market is supported by expectations, and if those expectations fail, the pullback will be severe.
Going forward, watch three key signals:
1. 30-year U.S. Treasury yield
2. Strength or weakness of the U.S. Dollar Index
3. Actual progress in U.S. crypto regulation
All three must improve to confirm a solid bull market; missing any one of them likely means a short-term rebound.
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 #BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain?
I am Dao Ge. BTC broke through 77,500, rising nearly 20% over three days. The ETF saw a net inflow of $826 million on the previous trading day, with funds spreading from early short covering to ETF and spot buying. This is a structural change, not just a short squeeze.
Market sentiment is also rapidly shifting. Cramer switched from selling BTC due to quantum computing risks to recommending direct buying, while Schiff called the breakthrough of 72,000 a false breakout and advocated switching to gold. These two longtime bearish figures gave completely opposite reactions, indicating that the chasing momentum has begun to spread.
CNBC host Cramer, who previously publicly sold BTC over concerns about quantum computing risks, recently turned around to advise investors to buy BTC directly, calling it a first-class trading tool. Peter Schiff, who has been bearish on Bitcoin for a long time, called the breakthrough of $72,000 a false breakout and advocated turning to gold. These two longtime BTC bears gave completely opposite reactions. Market sentiment is shifting from caution to chasing gains, and the divergence is rapidly converging, which is often a psychological feature of the mid-to-late stage of a trend.
Next, we will see if ETF funds can continue to absorb profit-taking sales. If inflows continue, the short squeeze market will switch to trend recovery. If inflows slow, high-level profit-taking and leverage rebuilding will amplify volatility. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Dao Ge is done speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $DOGE Herding into bullish positions is itself the greatest risk.
Just as the last round of shakeout calmed down, FOMO sentiment surged back, and leveraged funds rushed in as if missing the move by a moment meant being left out. But the biggest hidden danger in the market now isn’t some negative news—it’s that long positions are too crowded. When everyone stands on the same side, the liquidation zone below acts like a magnet pulling the price down; shorts don’t even need to act, the leverage stampede can cause a sharp price drop on its own.
A few days ago shorts were being squeezed out, now longs are piling up—the script has quietly changed.
BTC is densely packed with retail limit long orders in the 75,000 to 76,000 range, which is the easiest spot for precise harvesting. Once there’s a quick dip, the late-entry longs get knocked out immediately. Whether the whales are absorbing the sell-off or just watching remains to be seen.
ETH remains the same—weak follow-through, unable to rally or crash deeply. But one detail is worth noting—last week ETH ETF net inflows hit $690 million, a 10-month high. Institutions are clearly adding positions against the trend, yet the price remains under pressure. This only indicates a leverage-level shakeout; fundamentals are fine, and the direction ultimately depends on BTC.
SOL appears resistant to decline on the surface but is actually bloated. The price is holding, but capital has dried up—ETF inflows have been zero for 5 consecutive days, and staked tokens aren’t truly locked. If BTC falters, SOL’s catch-up drop could be the harshest.
Now it’s not about who’s right, but who can manage their positions. Sharp price spikes can come anytime, so keep positions light, be patient for rotation, and don’t go all in.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Recently, I bought some $HOME at a cost of around $0.00658.
I reviewed this project again, and what really interests me is its buyback mechanism. The current design of the DeFi app is to use 80% of the protocol's net fee income to buy back HOME, and the repurchased tokens go into the DAO Treasury. In other words, if the platform's trading volume and revenue continue to grow, HOME itself will continuously receive real buying pressure.
Additionally, HOME just launched on Korea's Upbit in early August, and the liquidity brought by the KRW trading pair is a relatively practical catalyst recently.
The price is still around $0.006 now, having dropped quite deeply before, so I'm actually willing to hold some here and wait for market rotation.
Of course, there is still ongoing unlocking ahead, which is a risk I will keep an eye on.
But at this position, the odds are acceptable to me, and I'll first see if it can return to $0.01.
$HOME After mocking Trump, a calm reflection shows that fiscal crises are often the source of wars
When a country's fiscal constraints become increasingly difficult to manage through normal economic and political means
It means the government is more likely to shift problem-solving methods from internal to external
Take the current United States, for example, the China-US competition, the competition for oil control, financial and economic sanctions, and also the multiple wars the US has launched in modern times
Therefore, Trump's so-called use of the US military to solve the US debt problem seems laughable but is actually sinister in intent! #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 $LRCX is at a device re-evaluation node in the process window of switching to molybdenum material for 3D NAND above 300 layers, but the core divergence in current pricing lies between the progress of storage manufacturers' capital expenditures and the tightening of macro risk appetite.
Currently, mass production positioning in the storage industry is in the 2xx layer range, with Kioxia and SanDisk at 218 layers, Micron at 276 layers, Samsung reaching 286 layers, and only SK Hynix advancing to 321 layers. These layer positions indicate that the vast majority of manufacturers still have a gap before the mandatory adoption of molybdenum processes above 300 layers, and equipment procurement demand remains in a transition period.
In the transmission logic of driving factors, the physical push from technical rigid bottlenecks ranks first; the high resistance and leakage of traditional tungsten word lines limit deep stacking. The pressure to clear semiconductor equipment overvaluation from trading desk positions comes next, and the actual capital expenditure rhythm of storage manufacturers has the least impact.
The upside scenario is based on the assumption that SK Hynix's 321-layer mass production proceeds smoothly and that Micron and others accelerate follow-up. If orders for production lines above 300 layers are fulfilled ahead of schedule in the next two quarters, market expectations for demand elasticity for etching and deposition equipment will be raised, triggering a valuation recovery for $LRCX.
The downside scenario is triggered by storage giants cutting capital expenditures or delays in new material adoption. When macro inflation expectations rise and suppress overall risk appetite, high-valuation semiconductor equipment stocks lacking immediate order support are more prone to concentrated long position liquidations.
A failure signal to watch for is whether major manufacturers like Kioxia and Samsung experience large-scale delays in their expansion plans evolving from 2xx layers to 300 layers. If expansion nodes are postponed by more than one fiscal year, the incremental equipment procurement brought by material conversion will not offset the decline in traditional equipment orders.
Key observations in the next 7 days include the latest guidance changes from storage giants regarding capital expenditures on production lines above 300 layers, as well as the transmission path of macro risk appetite fluctuations on the position distribution in the semiconductor equipment sector.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注$BTC $ETH $DOGE
Current market status of btc: After a rebound wave, it is oscillating at a high level, surging close to $80,000 and then retreating under pressure. Now it is grinding back and forth in the $76,000‑$78,000 range, which belongs to the consolidation phase after the positive news has been realized. The previous big surge was mainly due to: Trump's crypto-friendly expectations + US Treasury repo expectations + shorts being forced to cover positions.
However, the positive factors remain but with uncertainties
• ETF has seen continuous capital inflow recently, institutions are indeed buying;
• The market is betting on the Senate passing crypto legislation in September, but the bill may not pass, and if it falls short of expectations, a sharp drop is likely;
• The US Treasury repo will officially launch on September 9, currently it is just speculative hype.
At the same time, there are very real risk points
• The fear and greed index has entered the greed zone, short-term sentiment is overheated, profit-taking could happen anytime;
• Both long and short leveraged positions are heavy, $80,000 is strong resistance on the upside, $73,000‑$74,000 is key support on the downside, breaking either side will trigger a liquidation wave;
• Inflation data and Middle East conflicts could disrupt the rhythm at any time.
In summary
It is currently a news-driven high-level oscillation, not a one-sided bull run. The positive news has not been fully realized, but it has already risen a lot. Rapid surges and drops switch quickly, so a big rise tomorrow is not guaranteed.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% BTC will face several important macro pricing events continuously over the next month.
On August 26, the July core PCE and the second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released. If inflation is higher than expected, it will increase U.S. Treasury yields and put upward pressure on the dollar, which is unfavorable for BTC. The ideal scenario is inflation falling while the economy does not experience a significant slowdown.
From August 27 to 29, the Jackson Hole annual meeting will be held, with the theme "Financial Innovation: Impacts on Payments and Policy." The most noteworthy event is Warsh's speech on August 28, where the market will closely look for signals regarding inflation, employment, and the September policy adjustments.
After that, there are three key data releases:
September 4: August Nonfarm Payrolls
September 10: August PPI
September 11: August CPI
Nonfarm Payrolls determine how the market interprets employment and economic resilience, while PPI and CPI directly affect market judgments on inflation. Since these data are closer to the September FOMC, their impact on rate cut expectations may be greater than the GDP revisions.
Finally, the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will announce the interest rate decision, economic forecasts, and the dot plot.
Therefore, the upcoming macro mainline is very clear:
PCE/GDP → Jackson Hole → Nonfarm Payrolls → PPI/CPI → FOMC
After each release, the focus will be on:
Rate cut expectations → U.S. Treasury yields/dollar → ETF funds → BTC price If I had to choose between $BTC or $ETH for the August 2026 recovery wave, in my view, BTC is suitable as a core asset, while ETH is better for those bros looking for higher growth potential.
In the 7 day time frame from around 16/08 to 23/08/2026, BTC rises about 21 to 22%, from the 62,800 to 64,500 dollar range up to around 76,500 to 77,000 dollars. ETH rises more strongly, about 26 to 28%, from the 1,870 to 1,910 dollar range up to around 2,380 to 2,420 dollars. During this period, ETH once surpassed the 2,500 dollar mark, while BTC touched close to 79,400 dollars at one point.
Looking at the performance, ETH clearly has a higher beta than BTC. When money flows back into the market, ETH often benefits more strongly due to its ecosystem narrative, DeFi, Stablecoin, RWA, and various Layer 2s.
However, we shouldn't rush to conclude that ETH has surpassed BTC just by looking at the 7-day gains.
BTC currently has a market cap of about 1.53 to 1.55 trillion dollars, dominance still around 56 to 59%, and a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Spot ETF inflows, companies buying BTC as a reserve asset, and massive liquidity make BTC the relatively safest haven in the Crypto market.
ETH is different. ETH's value is more closely tied to onchain activity. Ethereum is the major platform for DeFi, Stablecoin, real-world asset tokenization, and many Web3 applications. ETH holders can also earn additional staking yields of about 3 to 4% per year. But that comes with risks of competition from Solana, other Layer 1s, and the possibility of money rotating to hotter narratives.
The current ETH/BTC ratio is only about 0.0315, meaning 1 BTC can be exchanged for nearly 31.8 ETH. BTC dominance has also dropped from a peak of about 63% to 56 to 59%. This is a signal that money is starting to seek opportunities in ETH and altcoins, but not yet enough to claim that Altseason has begun.
This recovery wave has only lasted about a week so far, bros don't rush into FOMO. Ethereum is stronger in performance, but Bitcoin remains the asset that dictates the direction of the entire marketTHE SQUEEZE WAS THE BAIT. 👀
Bitcoin didn’t rally because everyone suddenly turned bullish.
Billions in short positions were forced out, pushing price higher while Open Interest dropped.
That tells a different story: this move was largely mechanical short covering — not fresh, broad-based demand.
Now comes the real test:
Can actual buyers step in and keep $BTC above $77K?
If the next leg comes with rising spot demand and Open Interest, that’s when the move gets interesting.
#DailyOrbit At the current stage, BTC has clearly broken through the ma200, a historically validated bull-bear dividing line. Typically, each cycle will retest the ma200 once, but the timing varies from 2 months to half a year. As long-term trend traders, we should focus on the next bull market cycle as a key trading opportunity not to be missed. Therefore, against this backdrop, I personally prefer to enter with half a position in spot and use a 90-day dollar-cost averaging strategy to dilute the risk of pullbacks. However, before a possible pullback, there are two different scenarios to handle: one is a pullback after the daily candle closes above 83000, and the other is a pullback without the daily candle closing above 83000.
Scenario One: Pullback to ma200 daily moving average after breaking above 83000
This is a double confirmation of a bull market, confirming both the ma200 breakout and the breaking of the bear market structure characterized by lower lows and lower highs. Based on this, 57700 is very likely the lowest point of this bear market cycle. In the event of a black swan, the probability of the price closing below 57700 is very low. Therefore, one can enter coin-margined contracts near the ma200, with a liquidation set below 57700.
Scenario Two: Pullback to ma200 daily moving average without breaking above 83000
This is a single confirmation of a bull market, meaning only the ma200 breakout is confirmed, but the structure has not truly shifted. The probability of a sustained bull run is lower than in the first scenario. Therefore, one can continue to enter spot positions at the ma200, significantly reducing the weight of coin-margined contracts. If entering coin-margined contracts, the liquidation should be controlled below 35000 to avoid any possible adverse situations. 🗞 Bagel On-Chain Weekly Report (91): The Largest Short Squeeze in History
After nearly 2 months of narrow fluctuations combined with the massive accumulation shown by URPD, the market finally saw an expected breakout this week. BTC surged over 16,000 points in just four days, triggering the largest short squeeze event in crypto history.
As usual, this week's report starts from the perspective of URPD to share the latest chip distribution status with everyone 👇:
As shown in the attached chart, the key highlights are:
🔺 Around 2.2 million BTC are currently accumulated in the 61~65K range, down 272,000 BTC from last week
🔺 Compared to the scale of the massive accumulation zone, the current profit-taking is not significant
🔺 The single large accumulation bar at 63K still holds over 1 million BTC
🔺 From the overall URPD chip distribution structure, 61~65K still provides a solid bottom foundation
This sudden surge this week finally released the "pent-up frustration" BTC had been holding back for a long time. At the same time, this fast, fierce, and precise rally also caused the largest short squeeze event in crypto history.
Going forward, as long as there is no obvious sell-off behavior from the chips accumulated in the 61~65K massive accumulation zone, we basically do not need to worry about a crash caused by a collapse in chip structure.
In the future, if BTC can gradually shift the center of gravity of the accumulation in the 61~65K massive accumulation zone upward during the rise, we might welcome a healthy bull market, just like in previous cycles.
Finally, a heads-up:
Tomorrow I will release a post sharing the upcoming BTC cycle trading plan, expected to be presented in a "long-form" style, explaining every detail as much as possible. Please look forward to it, and I hope everyone can provide plenty of feedback.
That's all for today. Wishing everyone a pleasant weekend 🧼 BTC is surging so aggressively, but the derivatives market is quietly telling another story. Have you noticed that everyone has been calling for the bull market to return, but there are actually fewer people making money than last month? I've been browsing on-chain data these past two days and saw some rather subtle signals. Spot ETFs are indeed attracting funds. On August 20, BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $600 million, and ETH added another $220 million. Institutional entry is quite sincere. BTC jumped 23% in a week, approaching the 80,000 mark, which on the surface seems like a renewed enthusiasm. But digging deeper, the funding rate and option skew derivatives haven't excited along with the price. - Although the funding rate for perpetual contracts has turned positive, it is still far from the overheated zone, indicating that leveraged funds are still in a "test" rather than a "sprint" state - the 25% delta skew in the options market still leans toward bearish protection, meaning professional funds buy insurance during the rise rather than chasing the trend nakedly - futures open interest has moderately increased without extreme accumulation; the market feels more like repricing rather than emotional loss of control. This makes me feel that the core driving force behind this rally is not retail FOMO, but spot buying holding the bottom at the bottom. Continuous ETF inflows have pushed prices up, but the derivatives market has not fully caught up yet, which is actually quite interesting. It means two things. First, if BTC can stabilize within the 77K to 80K range, the derivatives structure will gradually revise#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Capital adjusted investment integration in June Sold some stocks Bought Fis (Fidelity National Information Services) HD (Home Depot) BRK.B CIATS visa MA Capital positioned in advance, misleading late information! 비트코인은 여전히 시장의 유동성 앵커다. 그러나 가격 상승 자체보다 중요한 것은 이 움직임이 어디서 오는지다. 이미 가격에 반영된 부분과 아직 반영되지 않은 변수를 먼저 나누면, 현재 $77K 이상의 강세는 매수세 회귀라는 사실 자체보다는 그 구성에 더 주목할 필요가 있다. 숏 스퀴즈성 랠리라면 펀딩과 선물 미결제약정이 급등하며 빠른 소진 패턴을 보이지만, 현물 거래량과 ETF 유입이 동반 개선되는 흐름이라면 이는 포지션 청산이 아닌 신규 자금 유입일 가능성이 크다. 이 차이는 후속 랠리의 지속성을 가르는 핵심 변수다. 시장 구조를 보면, BTC가 강세를 유지하는 동안 자금은 위험선호 회복 경로를 따라 ETH와 고베타 알트코인으로 순차적으로 이동한다. 반대로 BTC가 횡보로 전환하면 시장은 두 갈래로 나뉜다. 하나는 차익실현 후 재진입을 기다리는 관망이고, 다른 하나는 상대적으로 저평가된 알트코인으로의 회전이다. 즉 BTC의 방향성은 단순히 한 자산의 등락이 아니라 전체 크립토 자산Just saw some XRP data, and I really didn't expect it.
XRP can obviously be traded 24 hours a day.
But now about 23% of on-chain trading volume
is concentrated in the three hours when London afternoon and New York morning overlap.
It was only about 14% a year ago.
The coin never stops trading 24/7.
Yet the traders are acting more and more like they're working a 9-to-5 😂
At least from this data, XRP's trading rhythm is definitely starting to feel more like "traditional financial hours" now.
$XRP#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% $NVDA Nvidia will release its quarterly earnings report for the period ending in July next week. Following the pattern of recent quarters, the market is no longer unfamiliar with "better-than-expected results and upward guidance." The real factors determining stock price elasticity are three longer-term issues: whether Rubin can successfully succeed Blackwell, whether AI demand still significantly exceeds supply, and how much financing and balance sheet responsibility Nvidia needs to assume to secure future demand. According to brokerage expectations, the fundamentals remain strong. According to information from Trend Trading Desk, Jefferies released a forward-looking report this week, expecting Nvidia's revenue for the July quarter to reach $95 billion, higher than the market consensus of about $91.9 billion; the revenue guidance for the October quarter is expected to reach $108 billion, also higher than the market expectation of about $103.7 billion. Morgan Stanley's report is relatively conservative, expecting revenue of about $91.2 billion for the July quarter and about $102.3 billion for the October quarter, but also believes the recent trend will continue, with quarterly revenue possibly continuing to increase by about $10 billion sequentially. In other words, the core debate in the current market is whether the growth curve for 2027 and 2028 can continue to be revised upward after delivering good results. Blackwell remains strong, Rubin is the next valuation narrative. In the short term, demand for Blackwell remains strong. Microsoft's and Amazon's cloud businesses showed more significant improvement during the quarter, and long-term demand for computing power from OpenAI, SpaceX, and others... Be the coolest guy, drink the strongest liquor, chase the wildest girls, buy the most aggressive coins
The market has been really fierce these days
Who ran the wildest in this round?
The answer must be ZEC
In June, it was treated by the market as a "zero coin" around $250, now it has directly surged above $800, reaching a high of $855
It once rose more than 20% in the past 24 hours, and increased over 30% in the past week, hitting a new high since 2018
Why is it specifically this one?
I think there are three reasons combined:
First, the overall market is rising, and ZEC was the first to capture the market's risk appetite
Second, the privacy narrative has been reignited
Grayscale is advancing the Zcash ETF, and the latest amended filing has further clarified product names, fees, and other details. There is even a plan discussed by a DCG subsidiary to buy up to 200,000 ZEC
Third, and the most powerful layer:
Leverage is starting to take over the market
ZEC futures trading volume reached about $9.5 billion in the past 24 hours, while spot volume was only about $1.06 billion, with open interest close to $1.8 billion
So now ZEC is not just being bought
It's spot narrative + ETF expectations + leveraged funds + breaking historical resistance all pushing it upward
This is also why it can run much faster than BTC and ETH
But the question arises: Is $800 really a new starting point, or the last frenzy?
$ZEC BlockBeats News, August 23. Analyst qinbafrank published an article interpreting the latest agreement between NVIDIA and Poolside: NVIDIA paid $6 billion to obtain a non-exclusive license for Poolside's "Model Factory" technology, which is the core software system of Poolside's open-source coded Laguna series. Meanwhile, NVIDIA has invited over 100 Poolside engineers to join its project focused on the Nemotron open-source weight model project. Since its launch in 2023, the project has been developing larger and more advanced versions, rumored to have a parameter scale of several trillion dollars, with about $1 billion invested in equity. This analyst believes this marks a milestone move for Nvidia to shift from selling shovels to gold mining. Huang took this opportunity to delve deep into the model layer and build a full-stack "AI factory" deeply integrated into the NVIDIA ecosystem. Analysts summarized four key points: First, NVIDIA aims to rebuild one of the world's strongest open-source weighting models, benchmarking against Chinese open-source models, while directly challenging leading US closed-source companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Open-source weighting models have lower operating costs and offer greater customization. Second, from selling GPU hardware to software and model layers, NVIDIA is strengthening its control over both upstream and downstream processes. Third, while strengthening the moat,Stablecoins currently account for about $302B, equivalent to over 13% of the total crypto market capitalization according to CoinGecko. This is a figure that I believe many traders are undervaluing. Stablecoins are not just: “Sell BTC then hold USDT.” They are gradually becoming: USD running on blockchain 24/7. Cross-border payments. Settlement. Remittance. DeFi collateral. Treasury-backed digital cash. Institutional settlement. Reuters cites research from Citi and Brookfield suggesting that the circulating supply of stablecoins could increase significantly by the end of the decade #BTC surges then fluctuates, ETF funds continue to flow in
BTC surged to 78800 then fell back to 77000, who is actually buying at this level?
Last night BTC briefly pushed above $78800, but failed to hold and slid back to around $77000, fluctuating back and forth. Many watching the market feel conflicted—chasing highs risks being stuck, pullbacks risk catching a falling knife; this kind of volatility is actually more exhausting than a clear up or down trend.
But this round feels different from previous rebounds, mainly due to the capital flow. Last week, the combined net inflow into US spot BTC and ETH ETFs was nearly $2.6 billion, the strongest single-week figure since October last year. Of that, spot BTC ETFs took in about $1.9 billion, and ETH ETFs added nearly $700 million. This scale is not small; at least it shows this rally isn’t purely driven by short covering, there is real money buying on the spot side.
The question is what happens next. Whether ETF funds can withstand profit-taking pressure at these highs is the watershed for whether the market can shift from volatile highs to a stable trend. Once inflows slow down, the fast gains earlier will be quickly given back, and leveraged positions will likely amplify volatility. Friends using leverage these days should be cautious.
I personally don’t take ETF inflows as a guarantee; they are indeed a solid support for this rebound, but if sentiment weakens, inflows can reverse quickly. Compared to the high of 78800, whether 77000 can hold might be the more important level to watch in the coming days.
$BTC $ETH 📊 Crypto Market on August 23: Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?
Macro Perspective: Recently, the U.S. Treasury has expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, causing the dollar to weaken and inflation expectations to be repriced. Scarce assets like BTC and gold have clearly benefited; however, long-term Treasury yields remain relatively high. The market will continue to watch for policy signals from Jackson Hole, so the macro environment is marginally improving, but risks have not been fully eliminated.
Capital Perspective: This is currently the most noteworthy aspect. The U.S. spot BTC ETF has recently seen continuous capital inflows, totaling about $1.92 billion over the past five trading days, indicating that this rally is not solely driven by contract funds; institutional spot funds are indeed re-entering the market. Meanwhile, from August 19 to 21, approximately $1.44 billion in short positions were liquidated, showing a clear short squeeze effect accompanying the rise. (KuCoin)
Market Structure: BTC rapidly surged from previous lows this week, once approaching $80,000, but after the spike, it experienced significant volatility, indicating that the $80,000 area has become a battleground between bulls and bears. (CryptoSlate)
Sentiment Perspective: The market has quickly shifted from panic to optimism, with shorts being continuously squeezed. However, after such a rapid sentiment recovery, the risk of chasing longs is also increasing.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
Candlesticks and Bull-Bear Dynamics: My current view remains bullish but without chasing the rally; I also avoid topping out to short when the trend is strong. A more comfortable approach is to wait for BTC to retest the previous breakout zone, see if it can stabilize on lower volume, and then consider following the trend to go long.
As for whether this is a rebound or a reversal—I prefer to define it as: a strong rebound is attempting to transition into a trend reversal, but confirmation is still needed.
If BTC later retests without breaking key support, ETF net inflows continue, and it breaks above previous highs with increased volume again, the credibility of a reversal will grow; conversely, if ETF outflows resume and BTC falls back into the breakout zone with high volume, then this rally looks more like a large-scale rebound driven by capital inflows plus short squeezes.
So at this stage: bulls have the advantage, but the real opportunity may not be chasing the breakout, but waiting for a second confirmation after the pullback. Did anyone notice a strikingly contrasting detail this week?
The yield on the US 30-year Treasury surged to 5.27%, hitting a new high since 2007. Although the US Treasury urgently doubled the scale of bond buybacks to stabilize the market, the market simply didn’t buy it, and the interest rate stubbornly remained at a high level.
Logically, such a high risk-free yield should exert huge sucking pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin $BTC. But amazingly, Bitcoin actually surged more than 20% against the trend this week!
This is the core highlight: to rise so sharply under such huge macro pressure, if interest rates really come down in the future, wouldn’t it just take off from here?
Of course, high interest rates still hang like the sword of Damocles overhead. Going forward, besides closely watching Bitcoin $BTC’s K-line, the movements of the US bond market must also be closely monitored. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 On the evening of August 23, the weekly close was made. The real change this week was not a single big bullish candle, but the return of both price and volume together.
Around 19:32, OKX reported BTC at $77,238, ETH at $2,430, and SOL at $94.51; compared to around midnight on August 16, these three rose approximately 22.4%, 28.9%, and 25.1% this week. CoinGecko's 7-day gains for the same period were 22.0%, 28.5%, and 24.4%, showing consistent direction. ETH led, but the gap was not large, more like a broad risk appetite recovery rather than a solo rally of a single coin.
The volume was not hollow either. According to DeFiLlama's full-day data from August 16 to 22, total chain-wide DEX volume was about $62.7 billion, compared to about $37.5 billion in the previous seven days, an increase of about 67%; OKX and Binance's top three crypto spot weekly volumes also clearly expanded. However, BTC touched $79,516 and ETH reached $2,547 this week before both retreated, indicating supply at high levels has appeared.
If next week BTC fails to hold $75,500, ETH falls below $2,350, and volume shrinks rapidly, expectations for this recovery should be lowered. Do you think this is a trend restart or a high-level rotation after a sharp rise? Next week, will you first watch for price support or whether volume can remain strong? #BTC #ETH #MarketWeeklyReportPullback After Surge: Profit Taking and Geopolitical Risks
This week's surge in Bitcoin was mainly driven by three converging forces: the U.S. Treasury expanding Treasury repo operations to release liquidity, Trump's meeting with crypto industry executives signaling regulatory optimism, and the largest short squeeze in history — with total market liquidations reaching $4.5 billion over the past three days, including nearly $2.5 billion in Bitcoin short liquidations.
However, the weekend decline was just as rapid:
· Concentrated profit-taking: Bitcoin soared from $62,900 to $79,500, a 26% increase in 5 days, with severe short-term overbought conditions and strong willingness to realize gains.
· Renewed geopolitical risks: The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a new warning, stating that countries participating in economic restrictions will be considered enemies, fueling risk-off sentiment and causing a collective plunge in the crypto market. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 In 1977, NASA launched the Voyager 1 probe. Its onboard computer had only 72KB of memory, with computing power less than that of an electronic door lock you might have today. But 48 years later, in 2025, it is still operating normally in interstellar space 24 billion kilometers from Earth — the farthest human-made object ever flown, relying not on "speed" but on being "slow enough, stable enough, and precise enough." Every time I see Ethereum mocked for "slow block times," "expensive Gas," or "slow upgrades," I think of Voyager 1. In an era when all public chains compete on speed, Ethereum deliberately chooses to be slow. And this choice might just be its most dangerous quality. All chains compete on speed, only Ethereum competes on "not crashing." The public chain competition in 2025 has become suffocating. Solana claims sub-second confirmations, Monad and MegaETH put "millions of TPS" right on their PPT front pages. And Ethereum? It produces a block every 12 seconds, with final confirmation taking over ten minutes. Sounds like a joke. But Solana has crashed at least eight times in the past three years, with the longest downtime nearly 20 hours. Some of those new chains claiming millions of TPS have seen their ecosystems shrink within less than a year of launch. EOS raised $4 billion, touted as the "Ethereum killer," but now its ecosystem has shrunk to near oblivion. Terra once surged into the top three by market cap with a 20% annualized algorithmic stablecoin, then went to zero within 72 hours, evaporating $40 billion. FTT built a financial empire on high-frequency trading narratives, only to vanish in three days. EthereumI. Core Conclusions of the Overall Market (Top Priority) 1. The current bull market is a localized thematic bull market driven by BTC surges, not a full-scale knockoff season. 2. Across the entire network, open interest in contracts remains high, with severe leverage accumulation and simultaneous liquidation risks in both long and short directions. 3. Extreme market polarization: ZEC and HYPE are showing strong trend as demon coins, TRMP and PUMP are pure sentiment harvesting, ENA is steady as a safe haven. 4. The life-or-death line for all altcoins: BTC 73534 remains unbroken, themes continue to rotate; Falling below the all-around collective retreat. II. Individual Data for Five Major Track Coins + Strength Qualification 1. $TRUMP (Political MEME) - Current Price: $2.47, 24H Decline -8.39% - Market Characteristics: Sharp pulldown at high levels, explosive volatility, 24-hour high-low fluctuations over 90% - Capital Structure: Purely news-driven, no fundamentals, short-term contract funds moving in and out quickly - Strength Characterization: Short-term bearish, obvious high-level cash-out - Risk Points: Positive news is triggered by sell-offs, typical "buy expectation and sell facts", Only ultra-short-term trading is possible, not suitable for overnight holding. 2. $PUMP (Core of the MEME Sector) - Current Price: $0.00517 - Market Characteristics: 24-hour trading volume explodes, extremely high turnover rate - Capital Structure: Pure hot money relay, zero institutional holdings, all-retail investor competition - Strength Qualification: Neutral to oscillation, no trend, pure sentiment impulse - Risk Points: Liquidity dries up instantly after heat fades, Part OneLet me say something that might backfire: I personally think this bear market is basically over, and this time ETH is very likely to outperform BTC.
First, let me talk about my own foolish mistake. When ETH was in the 1700 to 1900 range, I accidentally sold it, but it kept surging without looking back. This week it shot up directly to 2400, with a weekly gain of 27%,
which is even stronger than BTC's 21%.
I really couldn't stand the pain of missing out, so I quickly bought back at 2100 to stop my losses. This is a typical case of "selling at the bottom and chasing halfway up," and I lost all face.
Now ETH is over 2400, I sold half of my spot holdings, betting it can touch the 2500 peak. My stop loss is set at 2550; if it breaks through, I'll figure out a way to recover.
As for BTC, I also have a plan: BTC just rose from 63,000 to 76,000. If it pulls back to the 67,000 to 72,000 range, I'll put all my bullets in.
If it just doesn't look back, then I'll accept it.
Regarding SOL, I have one principle now: don't guess blindly if you can't be sure.
This is my subjective judgment, not something set in stone. Looking at last week, BTC and ETH ETFs just absorbed $2.6 billion, shorts were liquidated for tens of billions last week, and this week longs chasing the rally were swept for over $800 million. The market really punishes all kinds of disobedience!
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 This wave is not a "confirmed reversal," but a triple play of macro triggers + short squeeze aftershocks + localized accumulation. Whether it turns into a reversal depends on whether the pullback shows respect.
BTC surged from 64,000 with a single bullish candle to 79,500 (8/21 high), ETH pulled back over 2400. On the surface, it looks like a bull rebound, but breaking it down: the 30-year US Treasury yield dropped from 5.34% to 5.19%, easing the denominator; the White House crypto summit + FOMC minutes anchored sentiment; 24h short positions exploded by over 3 billion, and Hyperliquid saw a single order evaporate 48.8 million — at least half of the rise is short covering and forced liquidations, not continuous real money accumulation in spot.
ETF net inflow of 1.1 billion over two days is a baton pass, not ignition.
Can you enter the market? Yes, but only at two positions:
• On a pullback, BTC 74,000–76,000 / ETH 2300–2350 with volume contraction and stabilization, enter light long positions with stop loss set 2% below;
• Or on a solid volume close breaking BTC 80,000 / ETH 2500, with volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days, follow the tail and right side.
Currently, the daily RSI is 82, overbought; a giant whale transferred and sold 7,700 BTC over 3 days; DOGE-like altcoins saw whales offload 0.0835 — chasing this bullish candle means handing a reverse exit ticket to those who cut losses at 64,000.
The real reversal script is: rally → pullback without breaking previous high support → volume contraction and sideways → then rise with volume.Why has ETH outperformed BTC? ETF capital flows have already provided the answer.
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Litecoin mining pool, recently stated that the current round of ETH's price increase surpassing BTC is not accidental, but rather a result of changing capital flows.
Data shows that last week, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of about $1.92 billion, while ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of about $700 million.
On the surface, ETH's capital attraction scale is less than BTC's, but when combined with market capitalization, the gap is narrowing:
Currently, ETH's total market cap is about 18.8% of BTC's, but ETF capital inflows have reached 36.4% of BTC's inflow scale.
In other words, calculated by market cap ratio, the new capital pressure ETH receives is about twice that of BTC.
This is one of the key reasons why ETH's recent maximum increase reached 35.9%, exceeding BTC's approximately 26.6%.
But the greater potential may come from the future on-chain financial assets.
As the regulatory environment in the United States gradually aligns with blockchain, if related policies like the CLARITY Act advance, traditional financial assets such as the US dollar, US stocks, and US bonds may further move towards tokenization and on-chain representation, with transactions and management completed through smart contracts.
This means that RWA (Real World Assets) could become an important bridge connecting traditional finance and the blockchain world.
And when large financial institutions truly begin to study on-chain assets, their focus may not be on a single token, but on the underlying public chains that support the operation of the entire financial infrastructure.The current surge method, look carefully before taking action: BTC surged sharply from 64,000 to 77,000–79,000 (touched 79,500 on 8/21), ETH rose nearly 30% weekly to over 2400, but on 8/23 it retreated from the high, with 24h long liquidations accounting for over 80% (880 million USD across the network).
The main drivers of this wave are the Treasury's balance sheet expansion + White House summit expectations + short covering ($3 billion short positions forcibly closed), while ETF net inflows of about 1.1 billion over two days are just taking over, not igniting the rally.
It's not that you can't enter the market, but you absolutely must not chase the bullish candles. Confirmation of a reversal requires three conditions: ① a pullback to 74,000–76,000/BTC or 2300–2350/ETH with volume contraction and stabilization; ② when rising again, spot volume ≥ 1.5 times the average volume of the previous 5 days; ③ ETF net inflows continuously for 3 consecutive days without interruption. Missing any one means a forced short squeeze tail wave.
Currently, the daily RSI is 82, indicating overbought; a giant whale sold 7,700 BTC in 3 days; chasing highs means taking over trapped positions. Wait for a pullback to catch, or a volume breakout above 80,000 to follow the right side; anything in between is just itchy hands tax.