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Robinhood chain suspected downtime, new block generation paused for over 4 minutes On September 4, on-chain information showed that the Robinhood chain experienced suspected downtime, with new block generation paused for more than 4 minutes. During this period, on-chain transactions could not be confirmed in a timely manner, and related activities were briefly interrupted. Currently, the incident is still marked as suspected, and the recovery status and specific causes on-chain require further confirmation. Mechanistically, blockchain networks rely on continuous block production to package transactions, update ledger states, and maintain final confirmation. Once block production stops, users' transfers, transactions, and on-chain application operations will be in an unconfirmed frozen state. The Robinhood chain is positioned as infrastructure that brings stock trading and asset issuance on-chain, with stability and continuity as its core selling points supporting 24/7 uninterrupted trading narratives. Therefore, even a block production interruption of just a few minutes can easily be magnified by the market as a question of infrastructure reliability. However, it should be viewed objectively that this interruption was short, and brief block production pauses are not uncommon in industry history, usually related to sequencer failures, node upgrades, or emergency maintenance. If it is a one-time incident and the chain recovers quickly, the actual loss is limited; but if downtime recurs or the duration significantly lengthens, it will undermine user and institutional partner confidence in its on-chain trading products and weaken its competitiveness relative to other compliant on-chain trading platforms. As of now, whether there has been an official response, the root cause of the downtime, and whether full recovery has been achieved still require further verification through on-chain data and official announcements.Non-farm payroll data far exceeded market expectations, directly triggering a decline in the crypto market. · 📊 How much the data "exceeded expectations": August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far surpassing the expected 56,000, marking the highest since March. Meanwhile, June and July data were revised upward by a total of 55,000, completely reversing the "negative growth" trend of July. · 💔 Why the drop: Strong employment data means the economy is still overheating, giving the Federal Reserve confidence to continue raising interest rates. After the data release, market expectations for a September rate hike surged sharply, causing U.S. Treasury yields to soar, directly suppressing valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin. Over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the past hour, with long positions liquidated at $186 million. This is a typical "Good News is Bad News" logic. The macro outlook turns hawkish in the short term, but ZEC remains strong. It is recommended to continue the "buy the dip" strategy, placing long orders around 965-970 for more stability. US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market expected only about 55,000, nearly three times higher than expected; the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% Looking at this data alone, it is actually short-term bearish for BTC The reason is straightforward: Nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations → US employment is stronger than the market imagined → The Federal Reserve has no need to rush to cut interest rates → Expectations for rate cuts cool down → US Treasury yields and the dollar face upward pressure → BTC faces short-term pressure However, 162,000 looks strong, but in this year's employment environment, it is not super strong employment data The market previously expected only 55K, largely because July's employment data was very weak, so this looks more like a clear rebound rather than employment re-entering a high growth cycle What the market is really focusing on now is whether inflation data can continue to cool before the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16 So BTC standing above $80,000: relatively strong Breaking below $80,000: short-term weakness If after the data release the dollar and US Treasury yields continue to rise, and BTC fails to hold $80,000, then this nonfarm payrolls report could become a catalyst for a short-term pullback So the most critical thing now is whether BTC can hold $80,000 The next truly critical data is the US CPI on September 11, which is more likely to determine how the rate cut expectations for September will ultimately go $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 August Nonfarm Payrolls at 162,000 Far Exceed Expectations, Rate Hike Bets Reheat On Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered a completely different answer than the market anticipated. The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, far surpassing the previous market expectation of about 55,000–65,000; July employment was also revised up from -23,000 to +21,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. Simply put: Employment is not as weak as the market imagined; instead, there was a clear rebound. What does this mean for the Federal Reserve? It's simple— The confidence to raise rates is back. Previously, the market's main logic was: Cooling employment → Fed has no need to tighten policy further. But now Nonfarm Payrolls send a reverse signal: Employment rebound + stable unemployment → U.S. economy still resilient → Fed can continue focusing on inflation. This is why after the Nonfarm release, U.S. Treasury yields quickly rose, and the market increased the probability of a September rate hike. The latest market pricing shows the September rate hike probability has returned to around 60%. For BTC, this logic is very straightforward: Nonfarm beats expectations → rate hike expectations ↑ → U.S. Treasury yields ↑ → U.S. dollar gains support → liquidity expectations tighten → BTC faces short-term pressure. So we saw BTC briefly surge above $82,000 but quickly fell back after the Nonfarm release, dropping below the $80,000 mark again. But here is a very critical point: Strong Nonfarm does not necessarily mean a September rate hike. Because earlier, Waller made the conditions very clear: August inflation is the key variable determining September policy. So now the market script has actually become: First card: Nonfarm Already played. And clearly hawkish. 162,000 vs. expected about 55,000, much stronger than market imagined. Second card: August CPI This is the final deciding card. If CPI continues to cool: Strong Nonfarm + cooling CPI The Fed may still choose to hold steady. But if: Strong Nonfarm + CPI heats up again Then trouble arises. This would form a very strong hawkish combination: Strong employment → strong inflation → increased necessity for rate hikes. At that time, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may strengthen further, putting greater pressure on BTC, gold, and high-valuation risk assets. Conversely, if: Employment is strong, but CPI clearly declines The market might reprice the "economy is resilient, but inflation is falling" golden combination. In this case, risk assets might not necessarily be pessimistic. So don’t just shout "BTC will fall" upon seeing 162,000. What really matters is: Nonfarm has pushed rate hike expectations higher again, but can CPI push those expectations back down? This is the biggest macro battle in the next two weeks. In short: August Nonfarm at 162,000 far exceeds expectations, meaning the Fed has regained confidence to "raise rates"; but how the September FOMC ultimately moves depends on whether August CPI continues to cool. BTC faces short-term pressure, but the real big picture still depends on inflation. $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 ADP gave an early hint, with private sector employment in August increasing by only 38,000, the weakest since the start of this year. The Beige Book also added that 10 out of 12 districts described conditions as "moderate," with hiring clearly slowing down. The numbers are cooling off, yet CME's probability of a September rate hike remains stuck at 62.3%. On the other hand, inflation hasn't backed down; core PCE stays at 3.3%, with 54% of 178 subcomponents rising over 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is cooling, prices are holding firm, pulling the market in opposite directions, making it hard to confidently bet on either side. Nonfarm payroll expectations are now quite scattered. Reuters surveys expect 58,000, Deutsche Bank sees 65,000, while Wells Fargo and NBC target 80,000, a difference of over 20,000. With expectations so spread out, the data release is likely to cause big swings whichever way it falls. If nonfarm payrolls fall below 58,000, rate hike expectations will basically be extinguished, and BTC could bounce, trying to reach 80,000. But if it rises above 80,000, a rate hike is basically confirmed, and BTC will remain under pressure, first testing if 75,000 holds; if not, then down to 72,000. Don't bet before the data; wait for the release to see how to react. The big picture hasn't changed, only the pace. #FOMC last data set before Friday this weekInstead of the roughly 55K–56K jobs economists were expecting, nonfarm payrolls jumped by 162K. That is almost 3x the consensus forecast. Even more interesting: July was revised from the previously reported -23K to a +21K gain. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. So the “U.S. labor market is rapidly deteriorating” narrative suddenly looks much less convincing. The private sector also showed resilience, while the previous ADP report had pointed toward only 38K private-sector jobs in August. TAt 3 a.m., I was still watching the TRUMP market. That kind of bearish drop was even more troubling than a crash—like a frog in warm water—you know it's not bottomed out, but you keep fantasizing about a rebound at any moment. Does this trend remind you of LAB and BEAT? Both are one-sided declines, the rebound is weak, and buying is squeezing out bit by bit, unable to support the price. I often think not every coin has the same fate. HYPE has a strong narrative backing it, ZEC has its own burn and buyback story, but what about RUMP's narrative? After the hype fades, what's left? Let's review what happened. I shorted around $3 with a 0.1 position, not a heavy position, because you can never predict the volatility of this coin. But what really alerted me wasn't my short profits, but the buying force below. - The buy wall at the market is very thin; large orders fall directly through with almost no real resistance. - Each rebound high drops lower than the last, indicating that bottom-fishers are losing money each time, with chips continuously rotating into the hands of more determined holders. - Trading volume has not significantly increased, indicating no panic has emerged; the real bottom is often confirmed only after a drop in volume. So what is the market actually trading? What is trading is the fading of attention. TRUMP's rally itself was a narrative-driven meme-like rise; once social heat and attention decline, liquidity naturally drains away. This is especially fatal for BTC because they do not have institutional allocation needs like BTC, nor do ETH have real ecosystem consumption. $BTC Although the non-farm payroll data was particularly good, the probability of a rate hike in September is now about fifty-fifty, it didn't go up because: 1. Fed Governor Waller signaled dovishness early, saying "no change in September barring surprises," which suppressed rate hike expectations. 2. The market is waiting for next week's CPI (inflation data), which is the real key to deciding whether to raise rates; non-farm payrolls are just the appetizer. So now it's 50% vs 50% September 11 (next Friday) — US August CPI data release. · If CPI exceeds expectations (persistent inflation) → rate hike probability could jump from 50% to over 70% · If CPI meets or falls below expectations (cooling inflation) → rate hike probability could fall below 50%, making no rate change in September the baseline scenario#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Direct conclusion: The non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, with an expected increase of only 53,000 jobs, but the actual release was 162,000 jobs. The employment data for the previous two months was also revised upward by 55,000. Employment data greatly surpassed market expectations, pushing back rate cut expectations significantly. Theoretically, this is bearish for the crypto market, but the market is still holding up. The Fear and Greed Index is now at 74, already in the greed zone. In the last 24 hours of liquidations, longs were liquidated for 415 million, clearly more long positions were liquidated. Looking at the liquidation map, there are 17.2 billion long positions waiting to be liquidated above, which is much more pressure than shorts, with a large accumulation of long position explosives above. BTC has stabilized above 79,580, ETH is slightly stronger, and SOL is almost unchanged. The bearish news did not directly crash the market, but that does not mean the risk has disappeared. The market is currently digesting the bearish news temporarily, but the reality that high interest rates need to be maintained longer has not changed. The index is greedy now, with a large number of long positions waiting to be harvested above. Do not blindly chase highs. Leverage must be controlled; do not think that no drop on bearish news means strength. The upcoming CPI will be the real test. Once inflation rebounds, the accumulated long positions could easily trigger a concentrated stampede. Stay cautious and avoid heavy bets on one-sided positions. Damn, the non-farm payroll data came out at 162,000, far exceeding expectations, removing the last obstacle for a September rate hike. $BTC immediately fell below 80,000. I'm the clown! I originally estimated non-farm payrolls to be around 35,000. According to Waller: if employment is satisfactory, the Fed is likely to hold steady in September. So next, we only need to watch August's inflation. Personally, I think inflation will probably be worse than in July. Since employment data didn't drag behind, the neutral faction will likely side with Walsh. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 But it's still early for the drop below 75,000, because the probability of a rate hike has only risen back to about 55%. Walsh's main focus is on prices, not employment. The 162,000 non-farm payrolls just tell Walsh and Waller that a rate hike won't trigger a wave of unemployment; this is about removing obstacles, not making a final decision. The real trigger is inflation at 3.7% PCE. That's why the market gives a 55% chance instead of 70%: the employment vote is done, but the inflation vote still awaits the CPI on the 10th. Inside the FOMC, the structure is now 2 vs 1. Walsh is the chair, prioritizing prices; Waller and other neutral members prioritize inflation; the remaining doves probably can't win.After tonight's nonfarm payroll data was released, the market trend fully confirmed my judgment: $BTC directly fell below the $80,000 mark, with the latest price down about 2.3% from yesterday's close. Reviewing this short-term correction, the core logic is very clear: 1. Macro expectations instantly reversed. This time, U.S. August job creation reached 162,000, far crushing the market's expectation of 56,000. This better-than-expected employment resilience directly shattered the market's previous illusions about an early Fed rate cut. 2. The double blow of funding costs and risk appetite The cooling of rate cut expectations directly pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, with the two-year yield rising 7.18 basis points to 4.406%. For the crypto market, a non-interest-free asset highly sensitive to liquidity and risk sentiment, the surge in U.S. Treasury yields means a sharp increase in opportunity costs. Under macro pressure, funds quickly withdrew from high-risk sectors, ultimately leading to this short-term pullback under pressure.#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 ADP gave an early hint, with private sector employment in August increasing by only 38,000, the weakest since the start of this year. The Beige Book also added that 10 out of 12 districts described conditions as "moderate," with hiring clearly slowing down. The numbers are cooling off, yet CME's probability of a September rate hike remains stuck at 62.3%. On the other hand, inflation hasn't backed down; core PCE stays at 3.3%, with 54% of 178 subcomponents rising over 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is cooling, prices are holding firm, pulling the market in opposite directions, making it hard to confidently bet on either side. Nonfarm payroll expectations are now quite scattered. Reuters surveys expect 58,000, Deutsche Bank sees 65,000, while Wells Fargo and NBC target 80,000, a difference of over 20,000. With expectations so spread out, the data release is likely to cause big swings whichever way it falls. If nonfarm payrolls fall below 58,000, rate hike expectations will basically be extinguished, and BTC could bounce, trying to reach 80,000. But if it rises above 80,000, a rate hike is basically confirmed, and BTC will remain under pressure, first testing if 75,000 holds; if not, then down to 72,000. Don't bet before the data; wait for the release to see how to react. The big picture hasn't changed, only the pace. #FOMC last data set before Friday this weekWin rate 77.78%, so why did it lose 66% over 90 days? Looking only at the win rate, Finished-Rust-Pansy easily appears "good." But in the OKX public Lead Trader data I track, his other side is more worth seeing: • Public win rate: 77.78% • 90-day cumulative return: -66.44% • 90-day maximum drawdown: 75.09% (90 valid observations) • Public copy trading: 135 days A high win rate does not equal making a lot of money. Often, it only means "more wins," and does not tell you the cost of each loss. So I don’t just look at the win rate. I want to know: when the trade is wrong, how much does he lose? How long does it take to recover? Current ATS is 38.11, PROVISIONAL / MEDIUM. This is not a judgment on the trader’s quality, but a risk warning: looking at a single nice number alone often misses the most important parts. I will continue to track these 100 traders in the future. Data as of: 2026-09-04 08:51 (UTC+8) Based solely on OKX public data, for research purposes only, not investment advice.Key focus: BTC falls below 80,000 again; 82,000 surged then retreated; US August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000, far exceeding expectations; Unemployment rate 4.1%; 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 4.8% again; Large inflows into BTC ETFs; ETH 2500 gains and losses; SOL 100 USD; XRP 1.40; HYPE unlocked; Strength and weakness in DeFi and privacy sectors. Core Analysis: Today's market actually saw a very typical **positive factor realization + macro repricing**. BTC early trading was driven by capital inflows and improved risk appetite the previous day, once surging to around $82,000, the highest since May, but then saw clear profit-taking, and has now fallen back below $80,000. (Barron's) The most important change here isn't "BTC dropped by a few hundred dollars," but rather: just as $80,000 broke through, it was immediately sold back again. This means $80,000 has not yet fully shifted from a "resistance level" to a "support level." Meanwhile, U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly exceeding market expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. Strong employment data theoretically means the Fed has no need to rush to ease, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen back to about 4.8%, putting pressure on high-beta assets like BTC and the Nasdaq. (Investor's Business Daily) But the market cannot simply label it as negative. Because yesterday, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $731 millionObviously, the current position data has already risen! Just now, due to employment data exceeding expectations, which was bearish, BTC dropped by 2%, resulting in nearly $200 million liquidated! The market first pushed up to squeeze shorts, then used the employment data to kill longs. Essentially, this is a round of two-way deleveraging. The current market mainly relies on expectations and contracts, and spot funds are still insufficient to support BTC's stable breakout. The employment data indicates that the US economy still has resilience, and the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to ease. The market's pricing for a September rate hike has risen from about 50% to 60%. The transmission logic is very direct: Strong employment → increased probability of rate hikes → stronger US bonds and dollar → pressure on US stocks and BTC. The stronger the US economy, the more unfavorable it is for BTC in the short term; the larger the liquidations, the more it shows that leverage has run ahead of spot. Low volatility with high liquidation volume around eighty thousand is not a good sign!The nonfarm payrolls landed with an increase of 162,000, exceeding all institutional expectations from surveys, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The data for the previous two months was also revised upward, disproving my earlier bet on weaker data. The job market shows resilience, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Dogecoin will need to digest the pressure from cooling rate cut expectations in the short term, which the bulls must acknowledge. But the market isn't that bleak. Before the data release, Dogecoin dipped from 0.08831 to 0.08403; that drop preemptively released some panic, and the actual data release removed the uncertainty hanging overhead. Looking at the details: the ADP report two days ago showed only 38,000 new jobs, the slowest since January this year. With these two data points conflicting, the market won't rewrite its judgment based on a single monthly nonfarm report; the Fed is also watching the trend. The strong employment side also means the economy hasn't crashed; the soft landing narrative isn't bad for risk assets in the medium term. Easing is postponed, not canceled. On the market front, $DOGE reclaimed above 0.085, with a mark price of 0.08527, and support below remains intact. The 21.8% gain over 30 days is structurally unbroken. For the bulls, the script has shifted from betting on data to waiting for the landing: short term to reprice rate cut expectations, medium term to watch inflation and guidance for the next meeting. As long as the 0.084 level holds, the story isn't over.#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 I am Cige, the nonfarm payrolls exploded. August added 162,000 jobs, the market expected less than 60,000, the actual value is 2.9 times the expectation. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, and wage growth of 3.8% also exceeded expectations. The job market has not cooled down at all; instead, it is accelerating. After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 50% directly to over 60%. Waller said just the day before yesterday that if the data is strong, he would consider a rate hike. The nonfarm data is very clear: employment has not cooled, inflation is very unlikely to come down, and Waller's voting balance is already tilting toward a rate hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.818%, hitting the highest level since November 2023. With employment data settled and far exceeding expectations, the Federal Reserve has little reason to remain inactive. For BTC, the nonfarm data exceeding expectations directly dispels rate cut fantasies, and it faces short-term pressure in a high interest rate environment. Above 85,000 is a short squeeze zone, but under the backdrop of rising rate hike expectations, breaking through is much more difficult. Bank of America called the nonfarm data an appetizer; CPI is the main course. If CPI also exceeds expectations, a September rate hike is a done deal, and BTC faces further downward pressure. If CPI unexpectedly weakens, rate hike expectations will be extinguished, and the market will reprice. Employment data is already settled, and the balance is tilting toward a rate hike. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $XAUT The disappointing non-farm payrolls couldn't break below 80,000, so I'm holding onto my long positions in BTC and ETH. BTC entry average price is 77518, ETH entry average price is 2372, both positions have floating profits over 60%, with an 8% safety margin before forced liquidation. The sharp drop after last night's data release didn't shake me out, indicating the bulls are more resilient than expected. My current judgment is: the market's interpretation of "strong non-farm = no rate cut" is too linear, and there's a higher probability of sentiment recovery in the coming week. The targets are BTC 81500 and ETH 2550, with stop losses set at 78200 and 2380 respectively. This is not a trade call, just recording my own trading thoughts. The market is always right, let's watch as it moves. Friends with similar positions, share your strategies in the comments👇 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 $BTC Nonfarm Night Tonight at 20:30, the US August nonfarm payroll data was released as expected, but the results shocked everyone — the median forecast was only an increase of 56,000 jobs, but the actual figure was as high as 162,000, and the previous value was revised from -23,000 to +21,000. Once the data came out, Bitcoin immediately fell below $80,000. July's nonfarm unexpectedly turned negative, this week's ADP data was a cold surprise, and with Federal Reserve Governor Waller just signaling dovishness, the probability of a rate hike in September once fell to about 50/50. Bitcoin rebounded early to above $81,000, with many bulls betting that weak employment would further suppress rate hike expectations, opening upside space for risk assets. The harsh reality after the data The employment growth of 162,000 completely shattered this illusion. This is a much stronger-than-expected figure — indicating the labor market is far more resilient than imagined, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen rather than fallen. For the crypto space, rising rate hike expectations mean a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity, which directly hurts assets like Bitcoin that are highly sensitive to interest rates. As a result, Bitcoin immediately dropped below $80,000. Over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network within an hour, with long liquidations reaching as high as $186 million. The nonfarm data proved the job market remains strong, and the Fed has no reason to be dovish — tonight's drop is the most direct punishment for wishful thinking. $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #Guys, what I'm more focused on now is how the market digests the data after it's released, rather than blindly guessing the rise or fall. Currently, the job market is still sending cooling signals: ADP job growth is only 38,000, and initial jobless claims are about 206,000. If the non-farm payroll falls short of expectations tonight, bets on rate cuts may heat up further, and BTC has a chance to test the $84K–$86K range upward. Conversely, if the non-farm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, the dollar and US Treasury yields may rise again, and BTC should be cautious of a pullback to $78K–$80K. ⚠️ So tonight's focus is not on the first candlestick line, but on whether BTC can hold the key range after the data release. The larger the data, the greater the volatility; Wait for the market to provide direction before considering the next step #DailyOrbit #BTC #Bitcoin #NFP #CryptoMacro and Policy News Highlights 1. US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Released, Triggering a Flash Crash in the Crypto Market At 8:30 AM Eastern Time on September 4 (12:30 UTC), the US released the August nonfarm payroll report. According to KuCoin breaking news and TradingKey market tracking, the volatility in the nonfarm employment data broke the previous consensus of a one-sided bullish expectation. US Treasury yields and the US dollar index experienced sharp fluctuations, causing a phase of liquidation of high-leverage long positions in the derivatives market. BTC briefly plunged from $81,200 to $79,225, while ETH simultaneously dipped to around $2,450. 2. Data Repricing Window Ahead of the Interest Rate Meeting The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold the FOMC interest rate decision meeting on September 15–16. After the release of the nonfarm data, market disagreements over the size of the September rate cut increased. Institutions used high-frequency liquidity hunting at key technical levels to flush out high-position chasing floating chips. 3. Critical Test of Support Levels for Top-Bottom Reversal The nonfarm flash crash did not break the long-term upward channel. Prices directly retraced to the core neckline support zone of the volume breakout on September 3 (BTC $78,800–$79,400). If this area can quickly stabilize with a firm lower shadow after digesting the data, it will form a classic right-side accumulation structure.#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Will the Federal Reserve dare to raise interest rates next? The just-released US August nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000, completely crushing the market's original expectation of around 50,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Against the backdrop of tense Iran situation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the labor market's ability to deliver such a rebound is truly impressive. There are two details worth pondering: First, structural differentiation. The main growth drivers, besides the traditional leisure, hospitality, and government sectors, include a strong rebound in construction and manufacturing, despite pressure from high interest rates. This indicates that businesses have not completely given up due to geopolitical conflicts, and demand for labor remains robust. Second, the second-stage transmission of inflation. Everyone is watching employment, but what’s even more concerning is that workers’ wages may rise accordingly. With geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices and supply chain costs, the better the employment, the higher the risk of a wage-inflation spiral. The Federal Reserve is currently in an extremely awkward position. Such a hot employment market hands hawkish officials a knife, greatly increasing the rationale for rate hikes. But the real decisive factor is next week’s CPI release. If CPI also exceeds expectations, a rate hike this month is almost certain. Forecasting the upcoming trend: The Fed will most likely adopt a tough hawkish stance, and the market will undergo a painful revaluation as rate cut expectations are completely dashed. Unless next week’s CPI shows a miraculous sharp drop, high interest rates are likely to persist for a while. DYOR $TRX Hu Xijin has fallen for Sun Yuchen's trick. Sun's Huobi hole is huge now, using Hu Xijin to divert attention. Sun's BTC and ETH are mostly extracted through TRX cyclic loans, WBTC is basically unrelated to him, he is just a custodian institution shareholder. USDD is minted by TRX collateral, and a large amount of USDT is user funds attracted by USDD at an annualized 20% high interest rate. The listed financial company actually holds only about 700 million TRX, and can only buy 30,000–50,000 U each time, the stock market cash-out is nearly exhausted. HTX was bought from Li Lin for 1 billion back then, user loss is severe, now it is worthless and hard to liquidate. After multiple layers of penetration, the real cash flow available is less than 500 million USD. The funniest thing is he counts the frozen WLFI as assets, boasting a value of 560 million USD, but his WLFI is hopeless to be recovered in this lifetime. Assets are highly dependent on TRX collateral cycles, so TRX price is abnormally stable with minimal pullbacks, one of the few assets that can outperform Bitcoin, this is his secret to wealth. He is now frantically diverting the topic, TRX is his lifeline, once TRX crashes and falls, Huobi will directly go bankrupt and liquidate.Nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations, $BTC under short-term pressure August added 162,000 nonfarm jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000; unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, and July data was revised from -23,000 to +21,000 Looking solely at employment, this report is clearly hawkish; the U.S. labor market is far stronger than previously thought For BTC, the logic is simple: the stronger the employment, the more confidence the Fed has to maintain high interest rates or even continue raising them; U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are more likely to strengthen, liquidity expectations tighten, which is naturally unfavorable for high-volatility risk assets like BTC Before the data release, BTC was still near $81,000, but it has now fallen below $80,000; the market is trading on this logic Short-term high-leverage traders are really having a hard time 🥺 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 As soon as the non-farm payroll data was released, $BTC dropped in response! August non-farm just came out: 162,000 new jobs added, while the expectation was just over 50,000, directly contradicting forecasts. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Wages rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, not very strong. The food service sector suddenly hired 59,000, local government education added 42,000, and manufacturing continued to slowly increase. However, the information sector cut 23,000 jobs again. The previous two months were revised upward by 55,000, with July revised from -23,000 to +21,000. ADP reported only 38,000, but BLS gave a big number here. The job market seems to have caught its breath again. The Federal Reserve will look at inflation next week, and the rate decision is in two weeks; this data will probably make them even more conflicted. Once the $ETH non-farm payroll data came out, I knew there was no chance of a peaceful night's sleep tonight. In August, 162,000 new jobs were added, completely smashing all institutional expectations. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.1%, and even the data from the previous two months was revised upward — the US job market is much stronger than we imagined. To put it simply, everyone was waiting for a rate cut, but the economy isn’t weak enough for that. Why would the Fed rush to cut rates? The rate cut expectations were immediately doused with cold water. For us crypto traders, this news is definitely uncomfortable in the short term. As liquidity expectations tighten, BTC and ETH are the first to feel the pressure. The short sellers are taking this opportunity to poke and prod aggressively. But from another perspective, since the economy hasn’t collapsed, there’s no risk of systemic sell-offs. The soft landing story still holds, so the impact isn’t purely negative; it’s more about the turmoil caused by the re-evaluation of interest rate expectations. Gold is even more directly affected: real interest rates are rising, rate cut trades are weakened, and gold prices are being heavily suppressed in the short term. The rush for safe-haven buying has also cooled off. The US stock market is being pulled in two directions — earnings fundamentals provide support, but valuation expansion is restrained by the cooling rate cut expectations, so it’s a two-way battle in the short term. Next, keep an eye on two things: what Fed officials say, and the next inflation data. These two are the key to deciding whether rate cut expectations will be delayed. Until then, the market will likely continue to jump around, so it’s always safer to keep positions light. 162,000 nonfarm payroll data was a huge surprise!! My view: It reflects that US employment remains strong, which is positive for Trump's midterm elections. At the same time, I believe the link between employment and inflation has been broken. It has changed from being transmissible to not transmissible. The biggest inflation problem lies in the food and beverage service industry, including Waller's stance. The Federal Reserve does not place much emphasis on employment data. I think today's nonfarm payroll is a temporary one-time negative, the focus is still on the CPI data on the 11th. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through. Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level GMGN's fee revenue approaches historic highs for several consecutive days, on-chain meme hype returns to peak levels. According to DeFiLlama data, driven by the booming speculation on Robinhood and BSC, GMGN's fee revenue has approached historical highs for several consecutive days, reaching $2.59 million in the past 24 hours and $37.96 million cumulatively over the past 30 days, matching the TRUMP coin boom and second only to Binance's Life hype peak. GMGN is a well-known on-chain meme coin market and trading tool platform, with fee revenue directly derived from users' on-chain trading behavior, making it a frequent real-time indicator to measure on-chain speculative activity. The latest data shows GMGN's fee revenue reached $2.59 million in the past 24 hours, with cumulative revenue over the past 30 days reaching $37.96 million, hovering near historical highs for several consecutive days. This income level is basically on par with the period when Trump issued the TRUMP coin and triggered an on-chain rally, second only to the peak of Binance Life Meme hype on BSC. The main drivers behind this round of revenue surge come from two chains: first, meme coin speculation on BSC has become active again, with on-chain turnover and transaction frequency significantly rising; second, the Robinhood chain ecosystem has recently seen speculative activity, attracting massive capital and users to on-chain trading. Fee income directly reflects real capital behavior and is harder to inject than token price fluctuations. Therefore, GMGN revenue approaching historical highs usually indicates high speculative sentiment among retail investors. Historically, on-chain M$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through. Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Nonfarm payrolls explode, $BTC don't rush to bottom-fish August nonfarm +162,000, far exceeding expectations; unemployment rate 4.1%, hourly wages up 3.1% year-on-year, June/July revised up by 55,000. The conclusion is straightforward: employment rebound + previous data revision, hawkish confirmation, September rate hike probability rises, USD/real interest rates strengthen short-term, risk assets take a hit first. BTC dropped from around 81,378 to 79,360, now at 79,780. On the 5-minute chart, it broke below the moving average cluster, 80,233—80,943 turned into resistance; this looks more like the first wave of leverage liquidation, not a stabilization signal. Strategy: don't chase shorts, nor blindly go long. On the right side, wait to retake 80,800—81,000 and hold on pullback before lightly trying longs, target 81,300/81,800, exit if it falls below 80,200. On the left side, only try if there is a long lower shadow/volume support at 78,200—79,000, stop loss below 78,100; don't catch falling knives if it breaks 79,360 or 78,208 directly. For trapped longs, reduce losses by covering at 80,200—80,800 first, don't add leverage to tough it out. Light positions, low leverage, strict stop loss. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through. Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level On September 4th, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $731 million, and BTC briefly surpassed $82,000. On the surface, this looks like institutional funds returning; however, at the same time, the market experienced over $400 million in short liquidations, indicating that part of the price increase came from shorts being forced to cover, not entirely from active buying. Another detail worth noting: the 30-day average net inflow of stablecoins just turned positive after 113 consecutive days of net outflows, but the recent growth rate has already slowed. This suggests that market liquidity may be shifting from "continuous contraction" to "temporary stabilization," still some distance from full expansion. Strong ETF inflows do not mean the entire crypto market has entered a risk-on cycle; BTC rising does not necessarily mean funds will immediately rotate into altcoins. My judgment is: this looks more like a rally driven jointly by ETF buying, improved macro expectations, and short covering, with the trend still needing confirmation from subsequent capital flows. If non-farm payrolls or CPI push interest rate expectations higher again, the rally could cool off quickly. What do you think is driving this BTC rise—new money entering or shorts retreating? #Bitcoin #Crypto #OKXOrbit $BTC $ETH $SOL #WallerEyesAugCPI #RobinhoodChainRevenue #BTCGoldRatioHigh $CORE ⚠️ Approach with rationality; do not over-speculate on the market 1. Currently, it is a practical test connection, not a large-scale official launch. Binding Alipay involves risk control, which may cause card binding failures, transaction blocks; fees, limits, and KYC processes are not yet finalized. This is an early testing phase, and not everyone can use it smoothly. 2. Product functionality running ≠ immediate coin price surge. Feature implementation adds fundamental value, but short-term market trends still depend on chip distribution, deposit/withdrawal pressure, and macroeconomic factors like non-farm payrolls. Positive news is priced in; beware of buying on expectations and selling on facts. 3. The business still has a long way to go. Mass user adoption, merchant compatibility, risk control compliance, and fee optimization all require iteration. The connection and binding are just the first step; large-scale popularization is the real challenge. 📌 Summary SatPay successfully binding Alipay consumption is a milestone practical breakthrough in the CORE ecosystem, turning BTC-Fi's consumption narrative from a PPT concept into a real, operable scenario. However, it is still in the early testing stage with many practical barriers. Do not use this single positive development to speculate on short-term market movements. What really matters going forward: scale of opening, fees, and actual user usage data. US nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations, rate hike expectations reheat, BTC under short-term pressure US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly surpassing market expectations, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. The strong employment data indicates resilience in the US labor market and provides the Federal Reserve room to maintain high interest rates or even raise them. For BTC, the logic is straightforward: Strong employment → rising rate hike expectations → stronger USD and US Treasury yields → pressure on risk assets. However, it is still too early to directly conclude that BTC will sharply decline because of this. What will truly determine the Fed’s policy in September may still be the upcoming CPI. If CPI again exceeds expectations, the combination of “strong employment + high inflation” will significantly increase the risk of rate hikes, bearish for BTC; if inflation noticeably falls, the pressure from today’s nonfarm payrolls may soon be absorbed by the market. So the most critical factor now is not how much BTC moves tonight, but the next CPI report. Nonfarm payrolls have reopened the door to rate hikes; CPI may ultimately decide the direction.Nonfarm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, leading to asset repricing In August, the US added 162,000 nonfarm jobs, far above the market expectation of 56,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, as expected. Meanwhile, employment data for the previous two months were also revised upward, showing the labor market's resilience beyond expectations. Strong employment will directly suppress the Fed's prospects for rapid rate cuts, further delaying expectations for US Treasury rate cuts. $XAU Gold plunged in response, facing obvious short-term pressure, sharply dropping below 4300. Bulls need to digest this hawkish employment signal. $SNDK The US tech sector also faces pressure; in a high interest rate environment, the valuation logic for growth stocks is weakened, and storage and AI tech stocks are likely to be emotionally suppressed in the short term. $BTC The crypto market similarly struggles to stand apart; the crypto sector and US tech assets are strongly correlated, and cooling rate cut expectations will dampen risk asset buying enthusiasm. However, note that a single month's nonfarm data cannot represent the entire trend; subsequent inflation data must be monitored for confirmation. This is a bearish landing scenario; avoid blindly shorting and focus on observing the sustainability of US Treasury yields going forward.1.05 million Bitcoins. $BTC In the $83,000 to $86,000 range, there are 1.05 million Bitcoins supplied by long-term holders. These tokens went through a whole downtrend and were basically never sold. Now that prices have returned, these people have finally gotten the chance to "break even or even make money." This is not some dog dealer dumping the price. This is 1.05 million "patience" being tested. Glassnode's data—the $83,000 to $86,000 range—is the first heavy cost-intensive zone above $79,000 in the spot market. Below the $62,000 to $65,000 range, there are still 1.44 million BTC, nearly two-thirds held by recent buyers. Glassnode's exact words are—"Recent buyers support the bottom, long-term tokens form the supply wall above." Someone below is holding it to prevent it from falling, while above there is a wall blocking it from rising. Bitcoin is now stuck between these two walls. In the early hours of September 3, BTC broke through $82,000 again in the short term. In this rush, $510 million in short positions within 24 hours were liquidated. Forced short positions provided short-term buying—but this was not trending buying; it was a "knife at the throat" buying. On the 4-hour chart, BTC's price is testing the upper Bollinger Band resistance at $81,288, and the RSI (14) has reached the overbought level of 71.63. The EMA50 is at $77,985, and the EMA200 is at $72,363. Technically, one thing is clear: the short-term rally is too fast and needs a breather. In August, the US spot ratio$BTC Nonfarm payrolls exploded directly, don't rush to bottom-fish this wave of $BTC. August nonfarm added 162,000, far exceeding expectations; unemployment rate 4.1%, hourly wages up 3.1% year-on-year, and even June and July data were revised up by 55,000. The conclusion is straightforward: employment rebound combined with upward revision of previous values confirms a hawkish stance, the probability of a rate hike in September is directly raised, the dollar and real interest rates strengthen in the short term, and risk assets will inevitably take a hit first. BTC dropped from 81,378 straight down to 79,360, currently at 79,780. On the 5-minute chart, it directly broke below the moving average cluster; the range from 80,233 to 80,943 has turned from support into resistance. Honestly, this looks more like the first wave of leverage liquidation, where the big players first blow out high-leverage long positions, it’s not a sign of stabilization at all, so don’t get itchy to catch the fall just because it’s dropping. Two sentences for trading: don’t chase shorts, and don’t blindly catch longs. On the right side, wait for the price to stand back above 80,800 to 81,000 and hold on a pullback before lightly trying longs, targeting 81,300 and 81,800; if it falls below 80,200, exit immediately. On the left side, only consider trying when there is a long lower shadow or volume support between 78,200 and 79,000, with stop loss below 78,100; if it breaks below 79,360 or even 78,208, don’t catch the falling knife, let the big players play by themselves. If you are holding longs, reduce losses first when it rebounds to 80,200 to 80,800, don’t add leverage to tough it out, the deeper you hold, the worse it gets.The non-farm payroll data has been released, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, in line with market expectations, and the number of new jobs far exceeding expectations (more than double). Wage growth on an annual basis exceeded expectations, while the monthly rate met expectations, overall indicating that the U.S. economy remains robust and is still far from recession. The Federal Reserve's rate decisions mainly depend on inflation and employment; strong employment data is generally positive, but given the current market's widespread hope for at least no rate hikes, this data is actually somewhat bearish. It does not support rate cuts or pauses in hikes, but rather gives the Fed confidence to continue maintaining high interest rates.🚨 Trezor breach update: 80.7K customers reportedly affected, but the key point is simple: Contact data ≠ wallet funds. Attackers still need another step to reach the actual assets. No obvious SafePal rotation yet, and $SFP doesn’t directly capture hardware sales. Don’t let FUD become your trade thesis. 👀 #Crypto #BTC #SFP Nonfarm payroll shock! 162,000 crushes expectations, gold instantly plunges $70 📉 Tonight at 20:30, the US August nonfarm payroll data was released: 162,000 new jobs added, expected only 56,000, previous value revised from -23,000 to +21,000. Unemployment rate remains at 4.1%. After the data came out, traders immediately fully priced in a September rate hike. The two-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.41%, the ten-year jumped to 4.80%. Gold instantly plunged—spot price dropped sharply over $70 from around $4470, hitting a low of $4405. Silver fell $1.5 to $65.7 simultaneously. The US dollar index briefly rose 34 points to 99.36. US stock futures weakened across the board. Note one detail: the data for the previous two months was cumulatively revised up by 55,000. This means the job market is much stronger than previously thought. The negative growth of -23,000 in July was completely erased. My view: When ADP was only 38,000, many were shouting that nonfarm payrolls would collapse, but 162,000 directly proved them wrong. This data is short-term bearish for risk assets—the rate hike expectation jumped from 60% to nearly certain. But strong employment itself indicates the economy is not cooling off, which may not be bad in the long run. Gold is under short-term pressure, with 4400 as a key level to watch; US stocks may fall tonight initially, focus on whether funds step in after a low open. Don’t rush to bottom-fish, wait for the sentiment to vent first. For reference only, not investment advice. $XAU #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Repricing of rate hike expectations is the core pressure on $BTC $ETH $ZEC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Before the non-farm payroll data, the market's probability of a rate hike in September had fallen back to 45%-50%, but the actual reading of 162,000 completely reversed this expectation. After the data was released, the market quickly increased its bets on a September rate hike. For crypto assets, a rate hike means: Risk-free interest rates rise, weakening the relative appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin The US dollar strengthens, putting pressure on risk assets priced in dollars Expectations of tightening liquidity, unfavorable for high-beta crypto assets Market outlook: key observation points Short term (next few days): The market needs to digest tonight's sharp volatility; the psychological shift of the $80,000 level from "support" to "resistance" will take time Market sentiment recovery after long liquidations is a key variable Medium term (before the September FOMC): Next week's CPI data will be decisive—if inflation data remains firm, the probability of a September rate hike will further increase, and the crypto market may face sustained pressure Federal Reserve Governor Waller previously stated that if data continues the current trend, it would support pausing rate hikes, but tonight's non-farm payrolls clearly add weight to the "rate hike" side 美国8月非农新增16.2万人超所有机构预期，失业率维持4.1% 美国劳工统计局9月4日公布的数据显示，8月非农就业人数新增16.2万人，超过机构调查的全部预期，失业率稳定在4.1%，且前两个月就业数据同步上修，表明劳动力市场的韧性明显强于市场此前判断。 数据显示，美国8月非农就业人数增加16.2万人，这一数字超出了所有机构调查预期，同时前两个月的就业数据被上修，失业率维持在4.1%，说明劳动力市场并未像部分投资者此前担忧的那样快速降温。 非农数据是美联储货币政策路径最核心的参考指标之一。此前市场普遍倾向于认为就业走弱将打开降息空间，而本次数据全面超预期，意味着经济活力仍在，美联储短期内降息的紧迫性下降，市场对利率路径的定价面临重新调整，这也是该数据被视为足以引发跨市场波动的关键原因。 对加密市场而言，这属于典型的宏观流动性信号：就业强劲通常会压低短期降息预期，收紧流动性预期，对比特币、以太坊等风险资产构成阶段性压力；但另一面，经济韧性也强化了软着陆叙事，避免因衰退担忧升温引发系统性抛售，因此影响并非单向利空，更多体现为利率预期重估带来的短期波动。 对黄金而言，就业超预期会抬升实际利率预The overall market $BTC is very sensitive to macro liquidity and interest rate expectations, belonging to a typical high-beta risk asset. The logic chain is roughly as follows: Labor market strength → The Federal Reserve finds it harder to ease (may even lean hawkish)
Currently, the Federal Reserve (under Chairman Warsh's leadership) is more focused on inflation; strong employment means the economy is not clearly cooling down, reducing the necessity for rate cuts, and may even reinforce expectations of "higher rates for longer" or rate hikes. Strong data usually pushes up U.S. Treasury yields, supports the dollar, and tightens financial conditions. Liquidity and opportunity cost
In a higher interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets (such as Bitcoin) rises, and funds tend to flow toward traditional assets with yields (Treasuries, U.S. dollar cash, etc.). When risk appetite declines, leveraged long positions are easily liquidated, amplifying the downside. Historical pattern consistency
Similar situations have occurred multiple times in the past: when nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations strongly, the crypto market faces short-term pressure; conversely, weak employment data is often interpreted as "positive for easing expectations," driving a rebound in risk assets. For example, when nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly weakened in July 2026, Bitcoin benefited from a resurgence in rate cut expectations. In short: "Too good" employment data turns into bad news (good news is bad news) because it weakens the market's pricing for rapid easing, causing short-term bearishness for crypto. Subsequent observation of inflation data (PPI, CPI) and Federal Reserve officials' statements is still needed to judge the medium-term trend. Nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations! The US added 162,000 jobs in August, BTC falls below $80,000～ $BTC Just now, the US August nonfarm payroll data was officially released. The result can be said to far exceed market expectations: New nonfarm jobs: +162,000 Market previously expected: about +53,000 to 56,000 Unemployment rate: 4.1%, basically in line with expectations In other words, the number of new jobs added is almost three times the market expectation. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics also announced that average hourly earnings in August rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. To summarize in one sentence: The US job market is far from as weak as the market previously imagined. And for BTC, which just surged back above $80,000 last night, this is obviously not comfortable data. --- What’s even more noteworthy: The -23,000 in July is gone In this report, there is another very important data point that I think many headlines might overlook: The US July nonfarm payrolls were previously reported as -23,000. This was also an important basis for the recent market discussion that "US employment is rapidly deteriorating." But today the BLS directly revised July’s data: -23,000 → +21,000. June was also revised from +20,000 → +31,000. The two months combined added 55,000 more jobs than previously reported. What does this mean? It’s not just that employment suddenly improved in August. But that our previous judgment of the entire US labor market needs to be slightly re-examined. This exactly hits the third scenario we deduced this afternoon In that article, I divided tonight’s nonfarm into three scenarios: 🟢 0–30,000: slightly positive for BTC 🟡 30,000–80,000: basically as expected 🔴 Over 100,000: BTC starts to face pressure Why is this not good news for BTC? The very important reason BTC was able to quickly surge back above $80,000 from around $77,000 yesterday was that the market began to lower expectations for a Fed rate hike in September. After Fed Governor Waller released a dovish signal, the market’s probability of a 25 basis point hike in September dropped from over 60% to about 50%. US Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and BTC rose accordingly. BTC remained around $81,000 before today’s data release. But now with the 162,000 nonfarm jobs data out, the market must answer a question again: If US employment is not as bad as imagined, why would the Fed necessarily pause rate hikes? This directly challenges the macro logic behind last night’s rally. $BTC #$BTC $ETH $TRUMP Nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations by 3 times. This is probably why the market rose first and then fell today. The market's estimate for this data was around 56K, thinking that even if it exceeded this number, it wouldn't be by much. But in reality, the nonfarm employment index surged, nearly 3 times higher. What does this indicate? It means a big positive for the US dollar, which is huge negative news for cryptocurrencies and stocks that compete with the dollar as a store of value, so they fell accordingly. The market has been quite volatile these past few days; everything will settle down after the mid-September meeting. So during this period, it is recommended that everyone avoid frequent trading to prevent accidental losses. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 The previously posted current price long position, add 5% of the same position, the remaining stop loss point remains at 79000, stay bullish! #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Bitcoin being favored by too many people means there is no opportunity left This is a wrong and dangerous viewpoint I occasionally hear this statement and feel it’s necessary to correct it Bitcoin has been favored by many since the day it appeared, rising from less than 1 dollar to 120,000 dollars The S&P 500 has been favored for decades, yet its annualized returns still outperform those elite haloed hedge funds Let's look at another group of favorites In March 2024, ETH surged to 4000 dollars, everyone was optimistic, swapping Bitcoin for Ethereum, rushing for the final climax Because in past bull markets, Ethereum was absolutely the star, so it’s not unreasonable to expect this bull market to reach 8000 But 4000 was the peak, it didn’t even surpass the previous high This is the key difference: just saying you’re optimistic has no value, only being positioned optimistically carries risk For example, most people who are optimistic about Bitcoin currently don’t actually hold Bitcoin Those optimistic about altcoins have really bought a lot of altcoins Especially near the end of a bull market, favored altcoins actually struggle to rise because too many people bought in, the vehicle is too heavy, prices can’t be pulled up Bitcoin, on the other hand, is pulled up very easily The reason this viewpoint is harmful is that once you believe it, you end up buying those unpopular junk coins and ignoring BitcoinNonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations! Employment surges by 162,000, September rate hike almost certain! US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, market expected only 56,000 — nearly triple the expectation. June and July combined revisions added 55,000, indicating the labor market is stronger than the headline data. Unemployment rate at 4.1% met expectations, labor force participation rate rose to 61.6%. Data breakdown: ① August nonfarm 162,000 vs expected 56,000 — completely crushing market expectations, highest since March ② June + July cumulative revision of 55,000 — employment data fully strengthened, not a one-month fluke ③ Unemployment rate 4.1% met expectations, participation rate rebounded — concerns about last month’s “false drop” due to participation decline fully eliminated Impact on BTC/ETH: ① Probability of September rate hike sharply increased, previous expectations of a “pause” basically dashed ② US Treasury yields surged, 2-year yield rose to 4.41%, risk assets under broad pressure ③ The brief rebound window brought by Waller’s dovish tone officially closed, BTC returns to pressured channel In short: Employment data completely crush expectations, rate hike is a done deal. BTC is ready to face a new round of shocks. $BTC $ETH $BTC IS TRYING TO RECLAIM $80.37K IS THE KEY TEST! $BTC is trading at $79,939.8 | -1.62%, sitting below the 15M MA5, MA10 & MA20 after a sharp drop from $81,405. Bullish: Reclaim $80,368 → $81,405 → $82K Bearish: Rejection → $79K → $78.2K Support: $78.2K–$79K Resistance: $80.37K–$81.4K With $808.64M USDT turnover, volatility remains elevated. Watch the reclaim + retest — BTC needs $80.37K back! @OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit #BTCGoldRatioHigh
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