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At the moment the data landed, Dogecoin took a hit but didn’t go down. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, exceeding all institutional forecasts, with the unemployment rate pinned at 4.1%. The script the bears wanted is now on the table. Rate cut expectations were trimmed, the dollar index rose, risk assets collectively came under pressure, and Dogecoin got hit along with them—there’s no point in denying it.
But the market tells a different story. The $DOGE 15-minute bearish candle dropped from 0.08831 to 0.08403, which looks scary, but it recovered to above 0.085 at close, with a mark price of 0.08527. Sell orders were met with buyers. Looking at volume, that spike was driven by liquidations of leveraged positions that couldn’t handle the volatility, not by trend funds. The 21.8% gain over 30 days remains intact, and the structure hasn’t broken.
There’s another detail not to miss: the ADP small nonfarm report two days ago showed only 38,000 jobs added, the slowest since January. One report says employment is hot, another says hiring is cooling—these two data points conflict. The Fed won’t change its stance based on a single month’s nonfarm data, and neither will the market. Easing is delayed, not canceled.
For the bulls, tonight’s task is simple: the 0.084 level is the bottom support for $DOGE in this wave. If it holds, just watch the show; if it breaks, then admit the mistake. The slap from the data-driven market is over, and Dogecoin’s mid-term story will continue with the upcoming inflation data.The US non-farm payroll data has been released
August added 162,000 jobs, while the expectation was 55,000
The actual number is almost three times the expectation, far exceeding it
As soon as the data came out, US stock futures, gold, and silver all plunged sharply
At the same time, the market increased its bets on a rate hike in September
The logic is as follows
Strong non-farm data means it's not hard for Americans to find jobs
The economy is not as bad as everyone previously thought
If the economy can withstand the Fed, there is no need to rush to cut rates and flood the market with liquidity
Expectations for rate cuts naturally decrease
However, people should not worry too much about next week's market
First, no one knows how much water is mixed into today's non-farm data
Looking at past data
Non-farm data has become a tool for the US to control the financial market
Second, our A-shares already plunged in the afternoon today, which means this negative news has been priced in early
Finally, whether the Fed will raise rates in September depends not only on employment data but also on inflation data. Next Friday, September 11, the US August CPI data will be released, which is more important than today's non-farm data.
In other words, Trump still has room to maneuver—although August employment data exceeded expectations, if the CPI released on September 11 is acceptable, the Fed can temporarily hold off on raising rates.
My judgment is that the likelihood of a rate hike before the midterm elections is low. Recently, not only has Trump called for rate cuts, but even the usually cautious Vice President Pence has expressed hope for rate cuts.
So the focus going forward is on the CPI data on August 11
Let the bullets fly a little longer
$BTC ARB at $0.13, are you ready to buy the dip?
First, look at the surface: positive news bombardment, but the price surged then pulled back.
In the past week, it violently surged from 0.07-0.09 to 0.146, an increase of over 70%. Intraday, hit by macro data shocks, it retreated to 0.13. Robinhood Chain mainnet went live, with daily fees reaching millions of dollars; according to the protocol, 10% of net revenue is shared, directly bringing real money into the Arbitrum ecosystem.
First thing: Is Robinhood Chain the "money printer" for ARB?
Robinhood Chain is based on Arbitrum Orbit technology, with on-chain daily fees reaching millions of dollars. According to the protocol, 10% of net revenue is shared (8% goes to the DAO treasury, 2% to the developer guild). What does this mean?
Arbitrum has transformed from a "rent collector" to a "technology stack licensor."
Second thing: The fundamentals are strong, but the tokenomics have a big problem.
ARB circulating supply is about 6.6-6.7 billion out of a total supply of 10 billion, with unlocking continuing until March 2027. Around September 23, about 139 million ARB will unlock (1.4% of total supply), plus another batch in mid-September, putting considerable pressure on the supply side.
Arbitrum is a highway with heavy traffic, but the toll is paid in ETH; ARB is just the "shareholder voting right" of the highway. The Robinhood Chain model is changing this narrative, but more Orbit chains need to be launched to achieve a qualitative change.
Third thing: Macro data suddenly turned, short-term pressure.
Today, the US August nonfarm payroll data greatly exceeded expectations: 162,000 new jobs (expected 55,000), unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, wage growth strong. After the data release, the probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting rose, putting pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin fell from around 82,000 to below 80,000, and ARB, as a high-beta asset, followed the decline.
Previously, the market partly priced in a "Fed dovish bias," but the strong data interrupted risk appetite. Next, watch the September 10-11 PPI/CPI. If inflation also exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will continue to rise, and altcoins will suffer.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Robinhood Chain validates the "technology stack licensing + revenue sharing" model, DAO income continues to grow
Surged 70% from 0.07 at the end of August, mid-term rebound structure intact
Partners include LG, Mastercard, PayPal; ecosystem expansion accelerates
0.12-0.125 is the POC demand zone, verified multiple times before
On the other side:
139 million ARB unlock on September 23 (1.4% of total supply), supply pressure
ARB token has no fee burn mechanism, weak value capture
Nonfarm data exceeded expectations, rate hike probability rose, macro turned hawkish
If BTC falls below 80,000, ARB may drop another 10-20%
Resistance above: 0.135-0.138 → 0.142-0.146 (previous high) → 0.15-0.18
Support below: 0.124-0.127 → 0.12 → 0.11-0.105
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Watch for stabilization signals in the 0.122-0.126 range (volume increase with stop decline, hammer/engulfing patterns), lightly go long with stop loss below 0.118. First target 0.135-0.138, second target 0.142-0.146.
Swing traders:
If volume breaks below 0.122 and 4H close confirms, lightly short with target 0.112-0.115, stop loss 0.130. If it holds 0.124-0.127 and rebounds with volume, buy the dip with target 0.15-0.18. Before the September 23 unlock, be mindful of supply pressure; avoid heavy positions and stubborn holding.
This ARB pullback is due to the cooling environment, not a broken logic—
Robinhood Chain just validated the new model, DAO income keeps growing, 0.12-0.125 support zone remains.
At 0.13, the key is not whether to buy but whether you have set a stop loss.
Most people lose money not because they chose the wrong direction, but because they chose the right direction without setting a stop loss.
What is your ARB cost?
On the unlock day of September 23, will you buy the dip or run?
$BTC $ETH $ARB #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 After the surge in Robinhood's on-chain data, the discussion heat around the ARB ecosystem is visibly rising.
I've noticed a question worth pondering:
People often say "increased on-chain revenue = better ecosystem," but where does the revenue ultimately go? Few seriously analyze this—does it flow to the protocol team, the DAO treasury, or is it truly linked to ARB holders?
Personally, I think the core logic behind this wave of ARB is whether its L2 tech stack can make money by "helping others launch chains," rather than relying solely on its own traffic.
Is it reliable for an L2 platform to make money by renting out its technical foundation?Have you ever seen a skyscraper where the glass curtain wall procurement is signed for twenty years before the foundation survey report is completed? The $35 billion computing power contract between Anthropic and Lambda, which Nvidia has a stake in, is exactly the curtain wall of this building. The glass has already been delivered to the site, and Hut 8 has excavated a 704-megawatt foundation pit in Texas—two fifteen-year leases with a gross value approaching $19.6 billion. But I’m standing at the chief engineer’s desk, and the pile foundation test data is still locked away in the supervisor’s office drawer.
Outsiders only hear the numbers, but in our industry, we first look at the load transfer paths. Google’s Tensor Processor is like a prefabricated external wall, Broadcom chip financing is the truss transfer layer, and the lease guarantee is a temporary cantilever beam. The entire supertall building uses at least three different modular structural systems, yet not a single blueprint indicates the design reference period in years. The computing power industry resembles reverse construction: the white paper is the rendering, the AI model is the standard floor, but the revenue column hasn’t even been poured to the zero level—the surface is rising, but underneath there is no shear wall meeting lateral stiffness requirements.
The essence of Hut 8’s story isn’t a data center; it’s about converting a mining machine workshop into a steel structure component factory for future buildings. Switching from mining Bitcoin to serving as a pump room for Claude is understandable: old mining machines are second-hand scaffolding pipes, GPU clusters are new anti-buckling supports, yet the revenue settlement model hasn’t even produced a construction blueprint. 704 megawatts at full load is equivalent to the output of a medium-sized power plant, and the fifteen-year lease on the balance sheet is an invisible foundation pit with no ceiling—the present value of rent is close to $19.6 billion, almost like embedding future available net cash flows as profiled steel plates, piece by piece, into the rock layers.
Structural engineers would warn: long-term leases equal replacing ductility with fixed stiffness. In industry jargon: cooling towers tied to the roof during a boom cycle become counterweights that crush the core tube during a recession. Asset-linked quotes like XSPY are never about today’s concrete compressive strength but the market’s expectation of cement setting time across the entire capital hierarchy. As long as model business income is stuck on the overpass like a ready-mix truck, the capital chain’s shrinkage joints will crack layer by layer along those cold joints of tensor processing units, chip financing, and lease guarantees.
Great architectural material selection is never about a luxurious facade. It’s when the chief structural engineer calculates every load path down to the last detail, then uses concrete to pour uncertainty into an integrated raft foundation. What we see now is the world’s most aggressive high-zone plan; the tower crane is already erected, but there isn’t a single layer beneath the foundation pit that can simultaneously bear the weight of R&D burn and shareholder buybacks. No set of settlement monitoring data can prove this building will stand for fifteen years—the steel columns lifted are beautiful, but the anchor bolts haven’t been tightened into the bedrock anchor holes yet. #anthropic35bcomputeBTC surged past 81,000, driving ETH to reach 2,509 before quickly falling back to 2,455. This round of correction was caused by multiple factors resonating together.
The trigger came from non-farm payroll data significantly exceeding market expectations, leading the market to raise the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. U.S. Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets overall came under pressure.
The market had been continuously rallying in the short term and entered an overbought zone. ETH approached the previous high around 2,530-2,540, where many swing long positions took profits, releasing concentrated selling pressure above.
The futures market completed a role reversal. Previously, it was continuously short-squeezing; after the price turned down, high-level chase longs were consecutively stopped out, triggering passive selling that caused a stampede, further amplifying the decline. ETH is highly correlated with Bitcoin and is unlikely to have an independent trend.
Currently, this is a pullback after a strong rise, not a direct trend reversal. Focus closely on the key support at 2,420. In a highly volatile environment, high leverage positions must not be held stubbornly; stop-losses must be strictly implemented.
⚠️This is market information only and does not constitute trading advice.In August, the US added 162,000 non-farm jobs, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. The overall data shows distinct characteristics: employment remains resilient, and inflationary pressure on wages has further eased.
For the Federal Reserve, the signals are mixed. Wage growth continues to slow, with the 3.1% year-over-year rate gradually aligning with the 2% inflation target, indicating that inflationary pressure in the service sector is likely to ease, which is a dovish signal. However, the non-farm payroll increase significantly exceeded market expectations, showing the labor market is not weakening and dispelling expectations of rapid easing.
The US dollar is likely to remain range-bound. Cooling wages boost rate cut expectations, suppressing the dollar; but the stronger-than-expected employment data supports maintaining higher interest rates for longer, providing a floor for the dollar, making it difficult for a one-sided trend in the short term.
US Treasury yields will diverge: falling wages reduce upward pressure on long-term bonds, while strong employment data delays rate cuts, keeping short-term yields relatively strong and long-term yields in a high-level range.
Within the stock market, there will be clear sector divergence. Rate cut expectations benefit AI and high-valuation tech growth stocks; meanwhile, bank stocks will be negatively impacted by squeezed net interest margins from rate cuts, and cyclical sectors will also face pressure. Currently, the market prefers an environment of moderate economic slowdown; if the economy rapidly declines, recession fears will instead suppress overall risk assets. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Nonfarm payrolls jumped directly from the expected 56,000 to 162,000? Gold $XAU and Bitcoin $BTC both plunged!
#August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 far exceed expectations, rate hike bets heat up
The market reaction this time is actually easy to understand. The US added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, nearly three times the market expectation. July was even revised up to an addition of 21,000; the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. A few days ago, ADP was only 38,000, and the market had already started betting on cooling employment, but tonight's nonfarm payrolls completely reversed expectations.
After the data release, gold $XAUT quickly dropped about 1.7%, and $BTC also fell back below $80,000 from above $81,000. The reason is simple: with such strong employment, the Fed is not in a hurry to ease, and even the expectation of a rate hike in September may reheat. Rising interest rates and US Treasury yields are uncomfortable for non-yielding gold and liquidity-sensitive BTC.
But I think the two should be viewed separately going forward. Gold is more afraid of real interest rates continuing to rise, while BTC depends not only on interest rates but also on risk appetite and ETF funds. So I won’t rush to bottom-fish after tonight’s drop.
The most critical thing coming up is the CPI on September 11. If inflation heats up again, both gold and BTC will face pressure; if CPI cools down, the dip caused by tonight’s nonfarm payrolls might quickly be bought back.
#BTC to gold ratio rises to the highest since January, can the strength continue? The non-farm payroll data has been released, and it is what triggered this big drop.
📊 How "explosive" is the data?
The US added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, while the market expected only 56,000, directly tripling the forecast. The previous value was revised from -23,000 to +21,000, with a total upward revision of 55,000 over two months. The unemployment rate of 4.1% met expectations, and the labor force participation rate was 61.6%.
💥 Why the big drop?
The market had previously bet on "weak non-farm payrolls → no rate hike in September," but the data was not weak at all; it was extraordinarily strong. The rate hike expectations instantly reversed—dollar strengthened, US Treasury yields soared, and risk assets came under broad pressure.
BTC directly fell below 80,000 from above 82,000, hitting a low of 76,400. The 24-hour gain dropped from over 5% to less than 2%. Over the past hour, more than $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with $186 million in long position liquidations. Gold plunged over 2% to $4,382, and oil prices fell below $90.
The surge from 76,000 to 82,000 in the early morning was the market betting on weak non-farm payrolls. The data came out completely opposite, and those who bet wrong had to cut losses and exit.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
This set of data completely burned down all the bearish logic.
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market expected only 56,000, directly beating it by nearly three times, with the actual value being 2.9 times the expectation. This is the largest deviation in employment data this year. July was -23,000, and June was also revised down. The market had already reached a consensus on the narrative of "employment cooling down." But with this 162,000 figure revealed, the entire trading logic must be rewritten.
Even more striking is the unemployment rate, which remained steady at 4.1%. The market generally expected it to rise to 4.2% or 4.3%, but it stayed put. Employment didn’t collapse, wages are still rising, consumers are still spending, and the economy isn’t that cold at all.
Once the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September shot up to over 60%, previously it was a 50-50 split. Bank of America directly stated—the nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer, CPI is the main course. This employment increase of 162,000 has already set an overall stronger tone for CPI. Even if next week’s core CPI softens slightly, it’s hard to reverse the inflation expectations brought by this employment heat.
Now the importance of next week’s CPI has been pushed to the extreme. Waller’s condition is—if inflation continues toward 2%, he supports holding steady; if the data is high, he will support a rate hike.
BTC has already crashed, whether it will break down further is unknown. Next week will also be very exciting, let’s look forward to it slowly. What do you think?
$BTC $ETH Market Brief｜AI Sector Earnings Breakdown: Hardware Orders Full, Software Growth Begins to Materialize
Market Overview
Earnings divergence among three AI industry chain companies:
1. Dell: Raised full-year revenue and AI server guidance. AI server orders exceeded 130 billion in the past 12 months, with backlog orders at 95 billion. Computing infrastructure orders continue to accumulate, maintaining high hardware market sentiment.
2. Broadcom: Q3 revenue and profit greatly exceeded expectations, AI semiconductor revenue reached 16.7 billion, up 221% year-over-year, accounting for 56% of total revenue; however, Q4 revenue guidance was slightly below market expectations, leading to a sell-off after hours. The conference call provided a high long-term outlook: full-year AI revenue was raised, AI revenue expected to double in fiscal 2027 and double again in fiscal 2028. Google, OpenAI, and Meta are all increasing investments in custom chips, supporting the stock price narrative in the long term.
3. Snowflake: Revenue of 1.55 billion, up 35% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. Product revenue growth accelerated, full-year guidance raised, with after-hours gains exceeding 20%, representing accelerated realization of AI software revenue.
Overall phenomenon: Hardware orders remain strong, AI software revenue officially entering an acceleration phase; Broadcom shows a typical pattern of "short-term guidance below expectations causing initial sell-off, followed by long-term high growth narrative pulling back the stock."
Market Logic
1. Hardware side: Major companies' capital expenditures are still being released, server and custom chip orders are backlogged, and the AI hardware cycle has not quickly cooled down. 1. The US added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of about 56,000; meanwhile, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages rose to 3.1%, also slightly above expectations. In addition, the originally reported job losses in July were revised up to an increase of 21,000, further confirming the strong resilience of the labor market.
2. Transmission logic: Fed's September rate hike expectations surge
Before the data release, the market generally expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged or even cut in September due to dovish remarks from Fed officials and weak ADP data, and the crypto market had already accumulated a large amount of long profit-taking positions.
However, tonight's employment data, far exceeding expectations, completely reversed this narrative. Strong economic fundamentals and wage growth led the market to quickly reprice, with traders significantly increasing their bets on a Fed rate hike in September $BTC $ETH The CME's September rate hike expectation probability has currently rebounded by eight points to 58.1%, and it is estimated to eventually rebound to around 60%.
Breaking it down, among the 162,000 new jobs added today, 59,000 were in catering and 40,000 in local government education. If these two categories are excluded, the data wouldn't seem so outrageous. The so-called art of data manipulation is to tweak figures within areas you control, so no one can really argue.
However, the July data was revised from a negative 23,000 to a positive 21,000, completely overturning last month's data. This means the previous premise that rate hikes couldn't happen due to poor employment in June and July has been overturned.
This kind of data basically follows the script I previously expected for managing expectations, meaning yesterday's hints from Waller were actually coordinated with Wash.
Moreover, due to the renewed rise in rate hike expectations, gold and U.S. stocks both fell, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield first rose then fell.
According to the previous script, after next week's CPI release, the probability of a September rate hike will continue to rebound above 70%, ultimately leading to a high-probability meeting and a rate hike, which the market will accept more smoothly.The US August seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls recorded 162,000, the highest since March, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, with the previous value revised up from -23,000 to +21,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. In addition, June and July data were revised up by a total of 55,000.
This is a comprehensive employment report that exceeded expectations—not only did the current data far surpass expectations, but previous data were also significantly revised upward, indicating that the US labor market is much stronger than the market had previously anticipated.
After the nonfarm data release, Bitcoin plunged 2,000 points from around 81,200; within less than an hour after the data release, over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with long positions liquidated as high as $186 million.
Currently, the price has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band, and 80,000 has become an important psychological level. If it cannot be recovered in the short term, it may further test the previous low near 78,400 Did $BTC $ETH $SOL go crazy? Up or down??
The August non-farm payroll data was just released, showing an increase of 162,000 jobs, significantly higher than the expected 56,000, which is 2.9 times the forecast; private sector job additions also far exceeded expectations. This data contrast is huge, breaking the view of a continuously weakening job market. Earlier, the ADP private employment data was weak, and the market generally predicted a weak non-farm report, but July's job openings rose and layoffs decreased, actually signaling a strengthening job market that was overlooked by the market. This strong data will increase the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September. After the ADP release, the market estimated a 62.2% chance of a 25 basis point hike, and this probability will continue to rise after the non-farm data. However, a single employment report cannot set the tone directly; next week's August CPI inflation data is another key factor for Fed policy.This is a combination of moves; you'll understand when you review: In August, first the negative non-farm payroll data of -23,000 was released, then the CPI inflation was low, but the market didn't really rise, fluctuating around 1900. Finally, the US Treasury conducted bond buybacks, which triggered a sharp surge, squeezing shorts in various ways. This September will also be a combination of moves, but it might not be the US Treasury this time; instead, it will be non-farm payrolls, then inflation, followed by rate hikes from the Fed and Japan.Market Brief: Intense Bull-Bear Divergence at BTC 83,000 Level
Market Overview
BTC has reclaimed the $80,000 mark, but the market has not reached a unified expectation; 83,000 has become the current critical dividing line between survival and decline.
- Bearish View: Whales are liquidating near 82,050, believing that 13 days of consolidation is insufficient to strongly break through 83,000–84,000, predicting a pullback to 70,000–72,000.
- Neutral View: 76,300 serves as key support, with real strong resistance at 86,000.
- Bullish View: Seen as the last entry window, targeting 100,000.
Capital Flow Shows Clear Split: Whales have sold 167,900 ETH over 5 days, cashing out over $400 million; meanwhile, institution Strive holds up to $1.4 billion in potential funds ready to increase BTC positions.
ETF channels for institutions are mature but capital is highly concentrated; market risk appetite is warming, with incremental funds more inclined toward short-term speculation.
Market Logic
Near key resistance levels, large holders and institutions are taking completely opposite actions, indicating no consensus here.
On one side, whales are cashing out and exiting; on the other, institutions are reserving funds waiting to buy. Both bulls and bears have real capital backing their positions, so one should not rely solely on one side's viewpoint.
The growing ETF scale represents increased institutional participation, but concentrated capital also amplifies market volatility; current incremental funds favor short-term trading, indicating a market driven by speculative play rather than pure long-term allocation. Yesterday's upward momentum has indeed been realized. $BTC → Breaks previous highs, reaching a high of about $82.1K $ETH → rebounds near $2.5K $DOGE → Buying is warming up and starting to rebound with the market. But the real test is not just price, but macroeconomic data. 📊 In August, the US NFP added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. Strong employment data may cool Fed rate cut expectations again, and BTC fell below $80K in the short term after the data release. This means: → data is weak: Rate cut expectations are heating up, and risk assets may find support. → Data is strong: US dollar and US Treasury yields may rise, increasing short-term profit-taking pressure. → Data as expected: The market may continue to follow its current trend, but volatility will continue to expand. My new focus range: $BTC → $79K–$81K $ETH → $2,420–$2,480 $DOGE → $0.19–$0.21 The rebound has already happened; the next step is to see if it can hold steady. Don't chase the news to buy, nor change direction just because of a single bearish candlestick. Let the data confirm it, let the price confirm 🎯 #BTC #ETH #DOGE #Crypto #NFP还在等回调？现在的调整，可能就是你一直等待的入场窗口。👀 我的观点很简单：债券市场承压，不一定意味着要卖出BTC，反而可能成为关注BTC的理由。 8月的突破并非偶然。随着长期美债收益率持续走高，市场开始关注美国财政部可能采取的稳定债市措施。8月19日，财政部长Bessent宣布扩大长期美债回购规模，计划从9月9日起进行至少40亿美元的相关操作。市场将其视为类似“Operation Twist”的流动性支持，但这并不等同于QE，能否持续压低长期收益率仍有待观察。 最新变化： 📉 美债长端收益率仍处于高位，全球债券市场压力尚未完全消退。 🏦 财政部扩大回购规模，试图改善长期债券流动性。 📈 Waller的鸽派表态一度缓解加息担忧，BTC也曾反弹至约$81.4K。 ⚠️ 但高通胀、财政赤字和地缘政治风险，仍可能让市场重新进入震荡。 所以，我不会因为短期回调就轻易改变长期逻辑。 如果债券市场继续承压，政策层面可能还会推出更多稳定措施。 而当流动性重新改善时，BTC或许会再次成为资金关注的方向。 当然，这不是说BTC一定上涨。 如果收益率继续飙升、流动性恶化，风险资产仍可能承受更大压力。Stay calm! Stay calm! Just take a look at the nonfarm payroll data!
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
August nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, with a forecast of 55,000, previous value -23,000, actual 162,000.
BTC dropped in response.
Brother Feng just said that the U.S. is in a midterm election market, aiming to create prosperity. So nonfarm payrolls definitely can't be low. Don't forget the downward trend in ADP's small nonfarm data. The nonfarm data will likely be revised downward later.
Unemployment rate unchanged, labor force participation increased. Same logic, all for the sake of "prosperity."
On the contrary, wage data is not very favorable; the annual wage rate exceeded expectations, the monthly rate met expectations but was ahead of the previous value. This is not very good for CPI.
But for "prosperity," it is guessed that August's CPI won't be bad either.
The Fed will not raise rates just because of August's employment data.
Don't forget, Waller's speech last night said that the decision to support a rate hike depends on August's CPI data, and he didn't mention nonfarm payrolls at all!← # Urgent Market Update 🤬 >
📉 Broad decline — Basket average -3.0% (1h)
8/8 coins moving in the same direction·$← # -B- Urgent Market Update 🤬 >
📉 Broad decline — Basket average -3.0% (1h)
8/8 coins moving in the same direction·BTC -2.5%
◽ Specific event-driven (Confidence level: medium)
✅ Confirmed (OpenClue verified)
· Macro data release timing matches: The US August nonfarm payroll data was released about 20 minutes before this decline, timing aligns
· Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour for the basket: Approximately $14.26 million liquidated in the past hour, of which 98.5% (about $14.05 million) were long positions forcibly closed, totaling 1,514 liquidations
· BTC/ETH open interest and basis changes: BTC open interest (total contracts not yet closed) rose 1.5% in 24 hours, basis (futures vs spot price difference) turned more negative; ETH open interest fell 1.19%, basis also turned more negative
· US stock futures (spot market closed): S&P futures down 0.18%, Nasdaq futures up 0.12%, but the US spot market was closed, so these quotes do not reflect real-time reactions to this crypto decline
· Stablecoin peg status: DAI stablecoin reported at $0.9998, deviating only 2 basis points from peg, within normal range, not caused by stablecoin depeg
📰 Possible catalysts (reported but not independently confirmed)
· August nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, showing a still strong labor market, raising market expectations for continued Fed rate hikes, Bitcoin fell below $80,000 — Barron's / OpenClue news monitor
🧭 Assessment
The 8 tracked coins fell synchronously within 1 hour (average drop 2.98%), during which a chain of forced liquidations mainly on long positions occurred ($14.26 million liquidated, of which $14.05 million were longs, accounting for 98.5%). BTC and ETH futures basis further turned negative; stablecoin peg was normal, and the US spot market was closed at the time, so minor futures fluctuations cannot serve as real-time verification. The timing of this decline coincides with the release of the US August nonfarm payroll data, which Barron's reported as exceeding expectations and raising rate hike expectations. This is a reasonable macro trigger but has not yet been fully independently confirmed as the decisive cause. From the capital flow perspective, this decline was mainly caused by forced liquidation of long positions, not a short squeeze. $🚨 Bitcoin watchers, the pullback you've been waiting for is here!👀
Have you been waiting for a $BTC pullback?
This might be your chance.
My view has always been clear:
📉 When the bond market falls, it doesn't necessarily mean you should sell Bitcoin.
Instead, you should think—
Why are bonds falling?
One of the key catalysts behind $BTC's upward breakout in August was the pressure in the bond market forcing Bessent to take action, or at least start signaling policies to control the yield curve.
Also, Operation Twist is never a one-day event.
If the bond market continues to be under pressure,
Bessent may continue to take measures to stabilize the yield curve.
💰 And this could mean more liquidity support for risk assets, especially $BTC.
So the question now isn't:
"BTC pulled back, should I run?"
But rather:
👀 Could this pullback actually provide a better entry point for BTC's next rally?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #TradingNonfarm payrolls surged by 160,000, completely shattering rate cut expectations
At 8:30 tonight, when this nonfarm data was released, many bullish traders probably felt a chill down their spine.
The market had generally expected only 56,000 jobs added, and the previous ADP report was a meager 38,000, with almost everyone prematurely celebrating a dovish Fed. Instead, the big nonfarm report dropped a bombshell of 162,000, nearly three times the expectation, and last month's negative 23,000 was sharply revised up to a positive 21,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, showing no sign of recession.
The bulls who had pushed Bitcoin up to $81,000 on Waller's dovish remarks suddenly hit a brick wall. The job market not only didn’t collapse but showed strong resilience, directly boosting the Fed’s hawkish confidence. The roughly 50-50 chance of a rate hike in September is now visibly rising, and the fantasy of rate cuts has been shattered on the spot.
The US dollar and Treasury yields rose in response, and the already thin liquidity in crypto markets immediately felt suffocated. Tonight’s big bullish candle is a shot in the arm for the US economy but a cold splash of water for risk assets. Those who rushed to bet on dovishness before the data release are now paying for their excessive optimism.
Strong nonfarm data crushes easing expectations—can Bitcoin hold the $80,000 level tonight against this macro shock?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Opening a position feels like being watched; setting stop-losses gets hit, not setting one is a deep trap, the more you buy and the more you get addicted—these past few days, you're really not alone.
$USELESS Two days of 0.1→0.28 is pure sentiment driven by Bonk Guy's call + short blowout, no fundamentals. One cut is pure meme fantasy—don't try to fight it.
A long ETH 2400 long position had a 15-point stop loss swept away, and tonight it reversed to 2510+—it was indeed a sweep loss; But that's the cost of the rule, not your fault.
BTC 80,000 long position without stop-loss and holding back to 82,000, taking profits with a pending order is luck, not system; BTC is currently oscillating around 81,000, 100,000 is not unwatchable, but strong resistance at 82,793 + upper shadow exhaustion, Polymarket gives about a 32% probability of reaching 100,000, a good outlook, don't take luck as ability.
Small positions → add resistance positions, creating a loss spiral. Stop trading for two days, only trade BTC/ETH, keep 1-2% risk, and extend stop-losses to avoid volatility. USELESS is useful, but you are not useless either; you just need to curb your gambling habits. #8月非农16 2,000 far exceeds expectations, interest rate bets heat up#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位 Can the strong trend continue? $USELESS Robinhood Chain’s on-chain activity has exploded, with DEX volume recently reaching around $1.5B+ and TVL moving above $750M. Daily fees even reached roughly $3.75M during the recent activity spike. That’s why the market suddenly started paying more attention to Arbitrum’s revenue story. But there’s an important distinction: Robinhood Chain generating fees ≠ ARB holders directly receiving those fees. There are several layers between ecosystem activity and token value: Robinhood Chain generates fThe non-farm payrolls not only landed but also directly poured cold water: US August added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the consensus of 56,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%; BTC immediately fell back below 80,000, and the 10-year US Treasury yield pulled back to 4.80%.
This data closed the "dovish crack" that Waller opened last night. Previously, Waller said "tending to hold steady in September," with the probability of a rate hike dropping from 63% to 50%, and BTC rebounded from 77,000 to 82,000 — but that was based on the assumption of "moderate weakening in employment." The strong data of 162,000 once again proves the economy can withstand rate hikes, and the market's pricing for a September hike immediately reversed.
There are three implications for the crypto circle:
1. The rebound last night is downgraded: from "macro recovery + short squeeze" to "a pullback after a premature rally." The 24h short liquidation of 415 million that drove the rise is now being taken over by the bulls.
2. The 80,000 defense battle reignites: 80,000 turns from support to battleground; if lost, look for a retest zone at 77,000–78,500; if it recovers above 80,000 within 24h and ETF inflows continue, the rebound structure can be maintained.
3. The real verdict is next Friday's CPI: strong non-farm + high oil prices; if CPI exceeds expectations again, a September rate hike is almost certain, and BTC will test 75,000–76,000; if CPI cools down, the market can still tell the story of "single-month employment fluctuations."
⚠️ Now is not the time to bottom-fish. The hawkish pricing after non-farm has not been fully digested; chasing longs = taking over stop-loss positions. Wait for clarity on the 80,000 level or after CPI lands before making a move; anything in between is just itchy fingers tax.Robinhood Chain最近的数据越来越有意思。 主网上线不到两个月，链上DEX交易量已经超过 $1.5B/日，TVL也突破 $750M。9月1日更出现了约 $3.75M 的单日手续费高峰。 这也是为什么市场突然开始重新讨论 ARB的收入逻辑。 但这里最容易出现一个误区： Robinhood Chain赚得多 ≠ ARB代币直接赚得多。 中间其实隔着几层： Robinhood Chain产生收入 ↓ 按照Arbitrum的相关许可/扩展机制进行收入分配 ↓ 部分资金进入Arbitrum DAO及相关生态 ↓ 最后才是市场去判断这些收入对ARB估值有没有实际意义。 Arbitrum DAO公布的数据显示，2026年上半年收入约 $6.19M，Robinhood Chain上线后的首月贡献约 $360K，约占当月DAO收入的35%。 这个数字其实比单纯看ARB价格更值得研究。 因为如果未来不只是Robinhood，而是越来越多项目选择使用Arbitrum技术栈，那么Arbitrum的商业模式可能发生变化： 以前： 自己吸引用户 → 自己产生交易 → 自己获得收入 未来如果扩展计划持续BTC hits a three-month high, ETH returns to 2500: Who's driving this wave?
BTC surged overnight to about $82,200, the highest since May; ETH also climbed back near $2500.
The most obvious change in this rally is not some sudden big Crypto news, but a rapid easing of macroeconomic pressure.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if inflation continues to cool, he leans toward no rate hike in September. The market immediately lowered the probability of a September rate hike from about 63% to around 50%, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk assets rebounded together.
But Crypto itself also has real buying demand.
The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $731 million on September 3, the highest since mid-January, with BlackRock IBIT attracting about $454 million; ETH ETFs also saw a net inflow of about $141 million on the same day.
At the same time, this wave also includes obvious short squeezes. After BTC quickly broke through $80,000, the market saw over $400 million in Crypto short liquidations, so the entire price increase cannot be understood as "new money blindly chasing highs."
The next two levels are very important.
For BTC, watch around $82,800 above, near the May high and key technical resistance; only a solid break here will open the chance to push toward $90,000. For ETH, watch $2530–$2570 first; after breaking the late August high, the structure can be considered further strengthened.$CL What if the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations? The logic for shorting crude oil has never relied on just one employment report.
Tonight, the non-farm payroll data was released, showing results stronger than market expectations — the number of new jobs exceeded forecasts, and the unemployment rate remained low or may decline further. For most risk assets, this is proof of "economic resilience," but for crude oil, this might be exactly the scenario shorts prefer: it gives oil prices a reason for a short-term rebound but does not change the overarching trend of oversupply. Every such rebound provides shorts with a better entry point.
1. The initial reaction to stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls: a stronger dollar and oil prices spike then fall back
With stronger-than-expected non-farm data, the most direct market reaction is a short-term rise in the US dollar index and higher US Treasury yields, reducing bets on a near-term Fed rate cut. For crude oil, a stronger dollar is inherently bearish — since oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar reduces the purchasing power of non-US buyers, putting downward pressure on prices.
Therefore, we are likely to see this scenario: after the data release, oil prices may briefly spike (due to the intuition that "strong economy = strong demand"), but will soon be suppressed by the stronger dollar and high interest rate expectations, causing prices to fall back. This "buy the news, sell the fact" pattern is especially common in an oversupplied market environment.
2. The real question: does a strong economy necessarily mean strong demand?
The market likes to equate "strong employment" directly with "strong crude oil demand," but this logic chain is increasingly fragile today.
First, the strength in the US labor market mainly comes from the service sector and government, both of which consume diesel and crude oil much less directly than manufacturing and freight sectors. Manufacturing PMI remains weak, and industrial oil demand continues to shrink. Good employment data cannot mask the weakness in high energy-consuming sectors of the real economy.
Second, the longer high interest rates persist, the more they suppress real estate, manufacturing, and capital expenditures. Stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls mean the Fed has no incentive to cut rates quickly; the high-rate environment will continue to suppress economic activity and thus crude oil demand. In other words, the stronger the non-farm data, the further away rate cuts are, and the weaker the demand. This is the deeper logic behind non-farm payrolls being bearish for oil prices.
3. Certainty on the supply side: OPEC+ production increases and shale oil running at high levels
No matter how strong the employment data is, it cannot change the supply-side facts: OPEC+ is gradually restoring production, some members are overproducing to get ahead, US shale oil production remains at historic highs, and Canada, Brazil, and Guyana continue to increase output. The global supply floodgates are open and will not close anytime soon.
In this supply structure, any rebound in oil prices triggered by macro sentiment will be quickly extinguished by ample supply. The brief demand optimism brought by stronger-than-expected non-farm data is just a small wave in a selling flood.
4. Technical perspective: rebounds are opportunities for shorts
From the daily chart, WTI crude oil struggles repeatedly below $70, with the 20-day moving average pressing downward and highs progressively lower. Brent faces strong resistance around $73-$74. The monthly spread has turned into a futures premium, a classic signal of oversupply.
If stronger-than-expected non-farm data triggers a rebound to key resistance levels — $70 for WTI and $73-$74 for Brent — these will be excellent shorting points. Stop losses should be set above resistance, with targets down to $65 or even lower. The technical structure already provides a clear direction; the non-farm data only offers the timing to enter.
5. Risks and responses
The main risks to shorting crude oil still come from sudden supply disruptions: escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, unexpected additional production cuts announced by OPEC+, or significant US shale production cuts due to cost issues. These events could trigger short squeezes in the short term, so strict position sizing and stop-loss discipline are essential.
But currently, these risks are manageable. OPEC+ has a strong incentive to increase production, Middle East tensions, while tense, have not yet affected actual supply, and shale oil companies still have profit margins at current prices.
Conclusion: Non-farm data is a subplot; the trend is the main theme
Stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls give bulls a brief story but cannot change the mid-term trend of crude oil market oversupply and weak demand. When the dollar strengthens, rate cuts are delayed, manufacturing is weak, inventories accumulate, and spreads show a premium, all clues point in the same direction. Every rebound in oil prices is a gift patiently awaited by shorts.
Tonight, let the data bring volatility and let the trend decide the direction. And that direction has never changed from the past few months until today. #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. This wave of BTC to gold ratio surged to 18.17, the highest since January. One BTC can exchange for 18 ounces of gold, which sounds impressive, but let's not get carried away.
The drivers are clear: cooling rate hike expectations + weakening dollar + global debt panic, funds treat BTC as "amplified gold" for speculation, and ETFs have also seen some inflows.
In the mid-term, I see a bias toward strong oscillation, with a 50-50 chance of continuation—if the digital gold attribute is to be confirmed, it depends on the Fed's show on September 16, with rates going down, a soft dollar, and fiscal panic not easing; the ratio can still ride along.
But the 90-day correlation between $BTC and $XAU just soared to the highest level since 2020. Such synchronization tends to loosen easily; once bonds stabilize and risk appetite returns to tech stocks, BTC relative to gold will have to give some back.
Operationally, if the 18 level holds, I’m half convinced; if it drops back to 16–17, it’s a hard no-chase zone. Hold mid-term positions, and if it breaks through, look at the historical triangle targets of 22–26.
In a word: the strength is real, but don’t treat "outperforming gold" as a one-way perpetual motion.
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ Robinhood chain suspected downtime, new block generation paused for over 4 minutes
On September 4, on-chain information showed that the Robinhood chain experienced suspected downtime, with new block generation paused for more than 4 minutes. During this period, on-chain transactions could not be confirmed in a timely manner, and related activities were briefly interrupted. Currently, the incident is still marked as suspected, and the recovery status and specific causes on-chain require further confirmation.
Mechanistically, blockchain networks rely on continuous block production to package transactions, update ledger states, and maintain final confirmation. Once block production stops, users' transfers, transactions, and on-chain application operations will be in an unconfirmed frozen state. The Robinhood chain is positioned as infrastructure that brings stock trading and asset issuance on-chain, with stability and continuity as its core selling points supporting 24/7 uninterrupted trading narratives. Therefore, even a block production interruption of just a few minutes can easily be magnified by the market as a question of infrastructure reliability. However, it should be viewed objectively that this interruption was short, and brief block production pauses are not uncommon in industry history, usually related to sequencer failures, node upgrades, or emergency maintenance. If it is a one-time incident and the chain recovers quickly, the actual loss is limited; but if downtime recurs or the duration significantly lengthens, it will undermine user and institutional partner confidence in its on-chain trading products and weaken its competitiveness relative to other compliant on-chain trading platforms. As of now, whether there has been an official response, the root cause of the downtime, and whether full recovery has been achieved still require further verification through on-chain data and official announcements.Non-farm payroll data far exceeded market expectations, directly triggering a decline in the crypto market.
· 📊 How much the data "exceeded expectations": August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far surpassing the expected 56,000, marking the highest since March. Meanwhile, June and July data were revised upward by a total of 55,000, completely reversing the "negative growth" trend of July.
· 💔 Why the drop: Strong employment data means the economy is still overheating, giving the Federal Reserve confidence to continue raising interest rates. After the data release, market expectations for a September rate hike surged sharply, causing U.S. Treasury yields to soar, directly suppressing valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin. Over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the past hour, with long positions liquidated at $186 million.
This is a typical "Good News is Bad News" logic.
The macro outlook turns hawkish in the short term, but ZEC remains strong. It is recommended to continue the "buy the dip" strategy, placing long orders around 965-970 for more stability. US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market expected only about 55,000, nearly three times higher than expected; the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%
Looking at this data alone, it is actually short-term bearish for BTC
The reason is straightforward:
Nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations
→ US employment is stronger than the market imagined
→ The Federal Reserve has no need to rush to cut interest rates
→ Expectations for rate cuts cool down
→ US Treasury yields and the dollar face upward pressure
→ BTC faces short-term pressure
However, 162,000 looks strong, but in this year's employment environment, it is not super strong employment data
The market previously expected only 55K, largely because July's employment data was very weak, so this looks more like a clear rebound rather than employment re-entering a high growth cycle
What the market is really focusing on now is whether inflation data can continue to cool before the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16
So BTC standing above $80,000: relatively strong
Breaking below $80,000: short-term weakness
If after the data release the dollar and US Treasury yields continue to rise, and BTC fails to hold $80,000, then this nonfarm payrolls report could become a catalyst for a short-term pullback
So the most critical thing now is whether BTC can hold $80,000
The next truly critical data is the US CPI on September 11, which is more likely to determine how the rate cut expectations for September will ultimately go
$BTC
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 August Nonfarm Payrolls at 162,000 Far Exceed Expectations, Rate Hike Bets Reheat
On Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered a completely different answer than the market anticipated.
The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, far surpassing the previous market expectation of about 55,000–65,000; July employment was also revised up from -23,000 to +21,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%.
Simply put:
Employment is not as weak as the market imagined; instead, there was a clear rebound.
What does this mean for the Federal Reserve?
It's simple—
The confidence to raise rates is back.
Previously, the market's main logic was:
Cooling employment → Fed has no need to tighten policy further.
But now Nonfarm Payrolls send a reverse signal:
Employment rebound + stable unemployment → U.S. economy still resilient → Fed can continue focusing on inflation.
This is why after the Nonfarm release, U.S. Treasury yields quickly rose, and the market increased the probability of a September rate hike. The latest market pricing shows the September rate hike probability has returned to around 60%.
For BTC, this logic is very straightforward:
Nonfarm beats expectations → rate hike expectations ↑ → U.S. Treasury yields ↑ → U.S. dollar gains support → liquidity expectations tighten → BTC faces short-term pressure.
So we saw BTC briefly surge above $82,000 but quickly fell back after the Nonfarm release, dropping below the $80,000 mark again.
But here is a very critical point:
Strong Nonfarm does not necessarily mean a September rate hike.
Because earlier, Waller made the conditions very clear:
August inflation is the key variable determining September policy.
So now the market script has actually become:
First card: Nonfarm
Already played.
And clearly hawkish.
162,000 vs. expected about 55,000, much stronger than market imagined.
Second card: August CPI
This is the final deciding card.
If CPI continues to cool:
Strong Nonfarm + cooling CPI
The Fed may still choose to hold steady.
But if:
Strong Nonfarm + CPI heats up again
Then trouble arises.
This would form a very strong hawkish combination:
Strong employment → strong inflation → increased necessity for rate hikes.
At that time, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may strengthen further, putting greater pressure on BTC, gold, and high-valuation risk assets.
Conversely, if:
Employment is strong, but CPI clearly declines
The market might reprice the "economy is resilient, but inflation is falling" golden combination.
In this case, risk assets might not necessarily be pessimistic.
So don’t just shout "BTC will fall" upon seeing 162,000.
What really matters is:
Nonfarm has pushed rate hike expectations higher again, but can CPI push those expectations back down?
This is the biggest macro battle in the next two weeks.
In short: August Nonfarm at 162,000 far exceeds expectations, meaning the Fed has regained confidence to "raise rates"; but how the September FOMC ultimately moves depends on whether August CPI continues to cool. BTC faces short-term pressure, but the real big picture still depends on inflation. $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元
ADP gave an early hint, with private sector employment in August increasing by only 38,000, the weakest since the start of this year. The Beige Book also added that 10 out of 12 districts described conditions as "moderate," with hiring clearly slowing down. The numbers are cooling off, yet CME's probability of a September rate hike remains stuck at 62.3%. On the other hand, inflation hasn't backed down; core PCE stays at 3.3%, with 54% of 178 subcomponents rising over 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is cooling, prices are holding firm, pulling the market in opposite directions, making it hard to confidently bet on either side.
Nonfarm payroll expectations are now quite scattered. Reuters surveys expect 58,000, Deutsche Bank sees 65,000, while Wells Fargo and NBC target 80,000, a difference of over 20,000. With expectations so spread out, the data release is likely to cause big swings whichever way it falls.
If nonfarm payrolls fall below 58,000, rate hike expectations will basically be extinguished, and BTC could bounce, trying to reach 80,000. But if it rises above 80,000, a rate hike is basically confirmed, and BTC will remain under pressure, first testing if 75,000 holds; if not, then down to 72,000. Don't bet before the data; wait for the release to see how to react. The big picture hasn't changed, only the pace.
#FOMC last data set before Friday this weekInstead of the roughly 55K–56K jobs economists were expecting, nonfarm payrolls jumped by 162K. That is almost 3x the consensus forecast. Even more interesting: July was revised from the previously reported -23K to a +21K gain. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. So the “U.S. labor market is rapidly deteriorating” narrative suddenly looks much less convincing. The private sector also showed resilience, while the previous ADP report had pointed toward only 38K private-sector jobs in August. TAt 3 a.m., I was still watching the TRUMP market. That kind of bearish drop was even more troubling than a crash—like a frog in warm water—you know it's not bottomed out, but you keep fantasizing about a rebound at any moment. Does this trend remind you of LAB and BEAT? Both are one-sided declines, the rebound is weak, and buying is squeezing out bit by bit, unable to support the price. I often think not every coin has the same fate. HYPE has a strong narrative backing it, ZEC has its own burn and buyback story, but what about RUMP's narrative? After the hype fades, what's left? Let's review what happened. I shorted around $3 with a 0.1 position, not a heavy position, because you can never predict the volatility of this coin. But what really alerted me wasn't my short profits, but the buying force below. - The buy wall at the market is very thin; large orders fall directly through with almost no real resistance. - Each rebound high drops lower than the last, indicating that bottom-fishers are losing money each time, with chips continuously rotating into the hands of more determined holders. - Trading volume has not significantly increased, indicating no panic has emerged; the real bottom is often confirmed only after a drop in volume. So what is the market actually trading? What is trading is the fading of attention. TRUMP's rally itself was a narrative-driven meme-like rise; once social heat and attention decline, liquidity naturally drains away. This is especially fatal for BTC because they do not have institutional allocation needs like BTC, nor do ETH have real ecosystem consumption. $BTC Although the non-farm payroll data was particularly good, the probability of a rate hike in September is now about fifty-fifty, it didn't go up because:
1. Fed Governor Waller signaled dovishness early, saying "no change in September barring surprises," which suppressed rate hike expectations.
2. The market is waiting for next week's CPI (inflation data), which is the real key to deciding whether to raise rates; non-farm payrolls are just the appetizer.
So now it's 50% vs 50%
September 11 (next Friday) — US August CPI data release.
· If CPI exceeds expectations (persistent inflation) → rate hike probability could jump from 50% to over 70%
· If CPI meets or falls below expectations (cooling inflation) → rate hike probability could fall below 50%, making no rate change in September the baseline scenario#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Direct conclusion: The non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, with an expected increase of only 53,000 jobs, but the actual release was 162,000 jobs. The employment data for the previous two months was also revised upward by 55,000. Employment data greatly surpassed market expectations, pushing back rate cut expectations significantly. Theoretically, this is bearish for the crypto market, but the market is still holding up.
The Fear and Greed Index is now at 74, already in the greed zone. In the last 24 hours of liquidations, longs were liquidated for 415 million, clearly more long positions were liquidated. Looking at the liquidation map, there are 17.2 billion long positions waiting to be liquidated above, which is much more pressure than shorts, with a large accumulation of long position explosives above.
BTC has stabilized above 79,580, ETH is slightly stronger, and SOL is almost unchanged. The bearish news did not directly crash the market, but that does not mean the risk has disappeared. The market is currently digesting the bearish news temporarily, but the reality that high interest rates need to be maintained longer has not changed.
The index is greedy now, with a large number of long positions waiting to be harvested above. Do not blindly chase highs. Leverage must be controlled; do not think that no drop on bearish news means strength. The upcoming CPI will be the real test. Once inflation rebounds, the accumulated long positions could easily trigger a concentrated stampede. Stay cautious and avoid heavy bets on one-sided positions. Damn, the non-farm payroll data came out at 162,000, far exceeding expectations, removing the last obstacle for a September rate hike. $BTC immediately fell below 80,000.
I'm the clown! I originally estimated non-farm payrolls to be around 35,000. According to Waller: if employment is satisfactory, the Fed is likely to hold steady in September.
So next, we only need to watch August's inflation. Personally, I think inflation will probably be worse than in July. Since employment data didn't drag behind, the neutral faction will likely side with Walsh. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
But it's still early for the drop below 75,000, because the probability of a rate hike has only risen back to about 55%. Walsh's main focus is on prices, not employment.
The 162,000 non-farm payrolls just tell Walsh and Waller that a rate hike won't trigger a wave of unemployment; this is about removing obstacles, not making a final decision.
The real trigger is inflation at 3.7% PCE. That's why the market gives a 55% chance instead of 70%: the employment vote is done, but the inflation vote still awaits the CPI on the 10th.
Inside the FOMC, the structure is now 2 vs 1. Walsh is the chair, prioritizing prices; Waller and other neutral members prioritize inflation; the remaining doves probably can't win.After tonight's nonfarm payroll data was released, the market trend fully confirmed my judgment: $BTC directly fell below the $80,000 mark, with the latest price down about 2.3% from yesterday's close. Reviewing this short-term correction, the core logic is very clear: 1. Macro expectations instantly reversed. This time, U.S. August job creation reached 162,000, far crushing the market's expectation of 56,000. This better-than-expected employment resilience directly shattered the market's previous illusions about an early Fed rate cut. 2. The double blow of funding costs and risk appetite The cooling of rate cut expectations directly pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, with the two-year yield rising 7.18 basis points to 4.406%. For the crypto market, a non-interest-free asset highly sensitive to liquidity and risk sentiment, the surge in U.S. Treasury yields means a sharp increase in opportunity costs. Under macro pressure, funds quickly withdrew from high-risk sectors, ultimately leading to this short-term pullback under pressure.#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元
ADP gave an early hint, with private sector employment in August increasing by only 38,000, the weakest since the start of this year. The Beige Book also added that 10 out of 12 districts described conditions as "moderate," with hiring clearly slowing down. The numbers are cooling off, yet CME's probability of a September rate hike remains stuck at 62.3%. On the other hand, inflation hasn't backed down; core PCE stays at 3.3%, with 54% of 178 subcomponents rising over 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is cooling, prices are holding firm, pulling the market in opposite directions, making it hard to confidently bet on either side.
Nonfarm payroll expectations are now quite scattered. Reuters surveys expect 58,000, Deutsche Bank sees 65,000, while Wells Fargo and NBC target 80,000, a difference of over 20,000. With expectations so spread out, the data release is likely to cause big swings whichever way it falls.
If nonfarm payrolls fall below 58,000, rate hike expectations will basically be extinguished, and BTC could bounce, trying to reach 80,000. But if it rises above 80,000, a rate hike is basically confirmed, and BTC will remain under pressure, first testing if 75,000 holds; if not, then down to 72,000. Don't bet before the data; wait for the release to see how to react. The big picture hasn't changed, only the pace.
#FOMC last data set before Friday this weekWin rate 77.78%, so why did it lose 66% over 90 days?
Looking only at the win rate, Finished-Rust-Pansy easily appears "good."
But in the OKX public Lead Trader data I track, his other side is more worth seeing:
• Public win rate: 77.78%
• 90-day cumulative return: -66.44%
• 90-day maximum drawdown: 75.09% (90 valid observations)
• Public copy trading: 135 days
A high win rate does not equal making a lot of money.
Often, it only means "more wins," and does not tell you the cost of each loss.
So I don’t just look at the win rate. I want to know: when the trade is wrong, how much does he lose? How long does it take to recover?
Current ATS is 38.11, PROVISIONAL / MEDIUM.
This is not a judgment on the trader’s quality, but a risk warning: looking at a single nice number alone often misses the most important parts.
I will continue to track these 100 traders in the future.
Data as of: 2026-09-04 08:51 (UTC+8)
Based solely on OKX public data, for research purposes only, not investment advice.Key focus: BTC falls below 80,000 again; 82,000 surged then retreated; US August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000, far exceeding expectations; Unemployment rate 4.1%; 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 4.8% again; Large inflows into BTC ETFs; ETH 2500 gains and losses; SOL 100 USD; XRP 1.40; HYPE unlocked; Strength and weakness in DeFi and privacy sectors. Core Analysis: Today's market actually saw a very typical **positive factor realization + macro repricing**. BTC early trading was driven by capital inflows and improved risk appetite the previous day, once surging to around $82,000, the highest since May, but then saw clear profit-taking, and has now fallen back below $80,000. (Barron's) The most important change here isn't "BTC dropped by a few hundred dollars," but rather: just as $80,000 broke through, it was immediately sold back again. This means $80,000 has not yet fully shifted from a "resistance level" to a "support level." Meanwhile, U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly exceeding market expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. Strong employment data theoretically means the Fed has no need to rush to ease, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen back to about 4.8%, putting pressure on high-beta assets like BTC and the Nasdaq. (Investor's Business Daily) But the market cannot simply label it as negative. Because yesterday, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $731 millionObviously, the current position data has already risen!
Just now, due to employment data exceeding expectations, which was bearish, BTC dropped by 2%, resulting in nearly $200 million liquidated!
The market first pushed up to squeeze shorts, then used the employment data to kill longs. Essentially, this is a round of two-way deleveraging. The current market mainly relies on expectations and contracts, and spot funds are still insufficient to support BTC's stable breakout.
The employment data indicates that the US economy still has resilience, and the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to ease. The market's pricing for a September rate hike has risen from about 50% to 60%.
The transmission logic is very direct:
Strong employment → increased probability of rate hikes → stronger US bonds and dollar → pressure on US stocks and BTC.
The stronger the US economy, the more unfavorable it is for BTC in the short term; the larger the liquidations, the more it shows that leverage has run ahead of spot. Low volatility with high liquidation volume around eighty thousand is not a good sign!The nonfarm payrolls landed with an increase of 162,000, exceeding all institutional expectations from surveys, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The data for the previous two months was also revised upward, disproving my earlier bet on weaker data. The job market shows resilience, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Dogecoin will need to digest the pressure from cooling rate cut expectations in the short term, which the bulls must acknowledge.
But the market isn't that bleak. Before the data release, Dogecoin dipped from 0.08831 to 0.08403; that drop preemptively released some panic, and the actual data release removed the uncertainty hanging overhead. Looking at the details: the ADP report two days ago showed only 38,000 new jobs, the slowest since January this year. With these two data points conflicting, the market won't rewrite its judgment based on a single monthly nonfarm report; the Fed is also watching the trend. The strong employment side also means the economy hasn't crashed; the soft landing narrative isn't bad for risk assets in the medium term. Easing is postponed, not canceled.
On the market front, $DOGE reclaimed above 0.085, with a mark price of 0.08527, and support below remains intact. The 21.8% gain over 30 days is structurally unbroken. For the bulls, the script has shifted from betting on data to waiting for the landing: short term to reprice rate cut expectations, medium term to watch inflation and guidance for the next meeting. As long as the 0.084 level holds, the story isn't over.#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
I am Cige, the nonfarm payrolls exploded. August added 162,000 jobs, the market expected less than 60,000, the actual value is 2.9 times the expectation. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, and wage growth of 3.8% also exceeded expectations. The job market has not cooled down at all; instead, it is accelerating.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 50% directly to over 60%. Waller said just the day before yesterday that if the data is strong, he would consider a rate hike. The nonfarm data is very clear: employment has not cooled, inflation is very unlikely to come down, and Waller's voting balance is already tilting toward a rate hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.818%, hitting the highest level since November 2023. With employment data settled and far exceeding expectations, the Federal Reserve has little reason to remain inactive.
For BTC, the nonfarm data exceeding expectations directly dispels rate cut fantasies, and it faces short-term pressure in a high interest rate environment. Above 85,000 is a short squeeze zone, but under the backdrop of rising rate hike expectations, breaking through is much more difficult. Bank of America called the nonfarm data an appetizer; CPI is the main course. If CPI also exceeds expectations, a September rate hike is a done deal, and BTC faces further downward pressure. If CPI unexpectedly weakens, rate hike expectations will be extinguished, and the market will reprice. Employment data is already settled, and the balance is tilting toward a rate hike. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $XAUT The disappointing non-farm payrolls couldn't break below 80,000, so I'm holding onto my long positions in BTC and ETH. BTC entry average price is 77518, ETH entry average price is 2372, both positions have floating profits over 60%, with an 8% safety margin before forced liquidation. The sharp drop after last night's data release didn't shake me out, indicating the bulls are more resilient than expected. My current judgment is: the market's interpretation of "strong non-farm = no rate cut" is too linear, and there's a higher probability of sentiment recovery in the coming week. The targets are BTC 81500 and ETH 2550, with stop losses set at 78200 and 2380 respectively. This is not a trade call, just recording my own trading thoughts. The market is always right, let's watch as it moves. Friends with similar positions, share your strategies in the comments👇 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 $BTC Nonfarm Night
Tonight at 20:30, the US August nonfarm payroll data was released as expected, but the results shocked everyone — the median forecast was only an increase of 56,000 jobs, but the actual figure was as high as 162,000, and the previous value was revised from -23,000 to +21,000. Once the data came out, Bitcoin immediately fell below $80,000. July's nonfarm unexpectedly turned negative, this week's ADP data was a cold surprise, and with Federal Reserve Governor Waller just signaling dovishness, the probability of a rate hike in September once fell to about 50/50. Bitcoin rebounded early to above $81,000, with many bulls betting that weak employment would further suppress rate hike expectations, opening upside space for risk assets.
The harsh reality after the data
The employment growth of 162,000 completely shattered this illusion. This is a much stronger-than-expected figure — indicating the labor market is far more resilient than imagined, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen rather than fallen. For the crypto space, rising rate hike expectations mean a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity, which directly hurts assets like Bitcoin that are highly sensitive to interest rates.
As a result, Bitcoin immediately dropped below $80,000. Over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network within an hour, with long liquidations reaching as high as $186 million. The nonfarm data proved the job market remains strong, and the Fed has no reason to be dovish — tonight's drop is the most direct punishment for wishful thinking. $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #Guys, what I'm more focused on now is how the market digests the data after it's released, rather than blindly guessing the rise or fall. Currently, the job market is still sending cooling signals: ADP job growth is only 38,000, and initial jobless claims are about 206,000. If the non-farm payroll falls short of expectations tonight, bets on rate cuts may heat up further, and BTC has a chance to test the $84K–$86K range upward. Conversely, if the non-farm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, the dollar and US Treasury yields may rise again, and BTC should be cautious of a pullback to $78K–$80K. ⚠️ So tonight's focus is not on the first candlestick line, but on whether BTC can hold the key range after the data release. The larger the data, the greater the volatility; Wait for the market to provide direction before considering the next step #DailyOrbit #BTC #Bitcoin #NFP #Crypto