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我的最新判断：这轮行情或许还没走完，市场可能先迎来一次更强的反弹，然后才真正进入恐慌式抛售阶段。📈➡️📉 Waller 的偏鸽表态叠加资金回流，短线风险偏好明显升温，BTC 重新站上 $80K 后，多头信心正在恢复。与此同时，现货 BTC ETF 出现今年以来非常强劲的单日资金流入，说明市场流动性正在重新回到高风险资产。 但我不会因此追涨。 今天的美国 8 月非农新增 16.2 万，劳动力市场表现强于预期，反而让市场继续纠结于 9 月美联储政策方向。接下来 CPI 将成为关键变量——如果通胀继续降温，风险资产可能还有一波上冲；如果通胀重新升温，前面的乐观情绪也可能迅速反转。 所以我的思路依旧是： 🔥 先看一轮情绪推动的反弹 ⚠️ 再防范杠杆重新堆积后的剧烈洗盘 🛡️ 关键防守位暂时关注： $BTC → $76K $ETH → $2,400 $SOL → $98 $ZEC → $770 $HYPE → $75 反弹不等于趋势彻底反转，真正值得关注的是价格能否在关键位置站稳，而不是单纯追逐一根上涨 K 线。 #WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #$BTC I am still bullish, but this non-farm payroll report is the first test of my judgment.
August added 162,000 jobs, expected only 56,000, nearly three times; private employment 127,000. More importantly, the revision: July was revised from -23,000 to +21,000, overturning the "employment turning negative" signal that dominated the market in the past two weeks. The unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, labor force participation rate rose to 61.6%, wages year-on-year 3.1%.
What’s really worth watching is the reaction structure. S&P futures -0.04%, Nasdaq -0.01%, gold -0.10%, dollar -0.01%, 10-year yield +0.00% completely unchanged. Only the crypto market is falling: $BTC dropped from 81,156 to 79,844, $ETH -2.73%.
The reason is simple: US stocks and bond markets have not opened yet, crypto is the only market open, so it bears the interest rate hike expectations first; when stocks and bonds open, they will catch up.
As long as 79,000 is not broken, I remain bullish. The conditions for turning bearish remain unchanged: funding rate surges past 0.03%, or the large holders’ position ratio falls back to 1.75.🔥Nonfarm payrolls landed! Data significantly exceeded expectations, the macro wind has already changed
$BTC
⚠️This article is only for personal macro logic communication and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets carry extremely high risk, please manage your risk accordingly.
The dust has settled, tonight's nonfarm employment data greatly exceeded market expectations.
The U.S. labor market is much more resilient than everyone imagined.
Many friends may not have fully realized what this data means behind the scenes. I break down three layers of logic to explain it thoroughly.
1️⃣ First layer: Rate cut expectations delayed
Hot employment means the U.S. economy is not cooling in the short term.
The current market consensus: The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates.
The beautiful fantasy of rate cuts has been doused with cold water.
U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index rose in response. For risk assets like Bitcoin, the macro environment has shifted from short-term bullish to somewhat bearish.
2️⃣ Second layer: Why the market fluctuated instantly
At the moment the data came out, the market moved rapidly.
This was not a single whale dumping, but a massive wave of programmatic orders and leveraged funds collectively repricing.
The recent sideways consolidation was funds waiting and not daring to bet early.
Now the mystery is revealed, funds begin to reassess the trading environment for the next 1-4 weeks.
A misconception to remind:
Don’t simply interpret “good data = price always falls.”
It changes the expectation rhythm, not the long-term major trend.
The mid-to-long-term bull market narrative won’t be killed by one employment report, but short-term easing expectations will cool down.
3️⃣ Third layer: Two possible market scenarios next
🔻Scenario A: Short-term weakness testing support
If the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remain strong, Bitcoin will continue to test key support zones below.
Focus on whether the support holds.
If it holds, it enters a longer period of bottom consolidation and grinding;
If it doesn’t hold, the current correction space will further open up.
🟡Scenario B: Bad news fully priced in, consolidation and recovery
The market often plays “sell the expectation, buy the fact.”
After all bearish sentiment is released at once and bad news is realized, some funds will think the worst is over and stop panicking sell-offs.
In the following days, after the drop, some losses may be recovered slowly, but restarting a strong rebound immediately will be very difficult.
✅ A little advice for different traders:
👉 Spot traders
Don’t panic sell just because of one data release, and don’t bottom-fish immediately betting on a reversal.
The macro has changed, so moderately lower your short-term return expectations.
Focus on: support validity, upcoming inflation data, and latest Fed officials’ speeches. Slow down the pace.
👉 Futures traders
After tonight, market sentiment will become more sensitive, and spikes will become normal.
Don’t stubbornly hold long or short positions.
The better-than-expected nonfarm has maxed out uncertainty.
The worst mistakes: heavy counter-trend positions, holding losing trades, and continuously adding to average down.
Opportunities always exist, but capital is limited.
👉 Everyone must remember:
One nonfarm data point is just one piece of the many macro puzzles.
There are still CPI inflation data and Fed meeting speeches ahead.
Don’t use a single piece of news to make a permanent conclusion about the market.
What we need to do is follow expectation changes and dynamically adjust our trading plans, not stubbornly fight against macro trends.
Now the boot has dropped, the fog has lifted a bit, but many uncertainties remain ahead.
Next, will you choose to wait for clearer signals or lightly speculate on a rebound? Welcome to rational discussion in the comments.
$ETH #cryptocurrency #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 What's going on? What's going on? Did $BTC crash?
From 82,279 down to 78,208, nearly 4,000 points, without even a decent rebound.
This morning I was still thinking "a breakout above the previous high is imminent," but by evening it just threw me off.
And now Fidelity jumps in to add insult to injury, saying the bear market isn't over yet, and November might see new lows—
Why not say it earlier or later, but right in the middle of the crash? If this isn't coordinating the dump, then what is?
The technicals look even worse:
EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 lines are all pressing down overhead, perfectly aligned like three seals.
The BOLL upper band at 81,685 was just touched and immediately slapped down, SAR is still hanging at 81,331, but the price is already lying at 79,600.
MACD death cross is widening, the bearish momentum is getting absurdly strong—
This isn't a correction, it's a blatant targeted demolition.
Now the whole network is guessing the bottom, I just want to say:
If 78,200 breaks again, the next stop we meet at will be 76,000.
Don't ask me how I see it, I'm exhausted from watching the charts.
$ETH $SOL #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Let's take a look at the Bitcoin part. The current price is about 79,900, just pulled back from above 80,000. If everyone followed our plan, the short positions should already be opened.
The big framework is still between 60,000 and 83,000. Until 83,000 is effectively broken, I won't call this wave a bull market return. After the high-level price contraction, the long position strategy returns to buying on dips, with a stop loss at 74,000; if that breaks, then look at 70,000, and only if 68,000 is also lost will the bullish or bearish stance be reassessed. Whoever is in a hurry to call the main rise here, I'll step back first.
The news and the market don't quite match: On September 3, the US stock Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of about 731 million USD in a single day, with IBIT alone bringing in about 454 million, marking a rare large single-day inflow this year. But the price corrected downward, indicating that capital entering the market doesn't guarantee short-term only rises without falls.
CryptoQuant also mentioned that this wave has signs of short covering. Let's first see how the range's upper and lower edges move; don't get carried away by single-day inflow numbers. Following the rules is more important than chasing feelings. Let's watch it like this tonight.$BTC Nonfarm payrolls directly smashed expectations!
162,000 new jobs added in August.
The expectation was only 56,000!
Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
The Fed's reason to cool down instantly shrinks a lot!
The US added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, and also a strong rebound from the 23,000 job loss in July. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.0%, and increased 0.3% month-over-month.
The most troublesome part of this data is the simultaneous appearance of "strong employment + not weak wages," which increases the probability that the market will raise interest rates to maintain a high level or even continue tightening. Next, watch the 10-year US Treasury yield and the dollar; if both continue to surge, BTC and tech stocks will have to undergo a short-term stress test again.
This nonfarm report is too strong; bulls must first withstand the yield tonight.
If BTC can't be pushed down despite this data, it actually indicates that spot support is stronger than expected! #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 美国8月非农数据落地：新增就业 16.2万，大幅高于市场预期的约5.5万，失业率维持在 4.1%。这意味着美国就业市场比预想中更有韧性，也让“降息交易”的逻辑出现了一些松动。 但市场现在更值得关注的是：强就业 + 通胀数据 + 美联储9月政策选择的组合。 此前 Waller 已释放偏鸽信号，BTC 随后重新站上 $82K附近；但强劲非农可能限制进一步宽松预期。接下来如果 BTC 能稳住 $81K–$83K 区域，突破后才有机会继续挑战更高位置；反之，如果宏观压力重新升温，$78K甚至$72K一带仍需要重点防守。 🔥 另外一个重要催化剂是 9月15日 CLARITY Act。参议院预计进行关键程序性投票，但目前议程缩减也增加了后续推进的不确定性，因此这既可能成为加密市场的利好催化，也可能带来“预期落空”的波动。 我的观点很简单： 数据强，不代表 BTC 必跌；数据弱，也不代表 BTC 必涨。 真正决定下一阶段趋势的，是 BTC 能否在宏观消息冲击后继续守住关键支撑，并把 $83K 从压力位变成新的支撑。 别急着追涨杀跌，等价格给出确认。👀 #OKX #BTC #Bitcoin #ETRobinhood Chain daily revenue hits $4 million, ARB earns passive income, this script is even stronger than Meme
Robinhood Chain's single-day on-chain revenue reached $4.01 million, ranking first among public chains; in the past week, it was $8.26 million, more than three times that of Ethereum. In two months since launch, cumulative fees exceeded $20 million, with an annualized rate of about $110 million.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood to "Overweight" with a target price raised to $150.
ARB is the real hidden winner. Robinhood Chain is based on the Arbitrum tech stack and must return 10% of net revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem—8% flows into the DAO treasury, 2% goes to the developer guild. Cumulative revenue sharing has reached about $1.3 million, annualized about $11 million.
An L2 token surging because another chain is making money—ARB rose 46.7% in two weeks. The narrative has shifted from "technology race" to "rent-collecting stock."
My judgment: The revenue is real, the dividends are real, and the hype will continue. But on September 23, ARB has a token unlock, so short-term volatility is inevitable. In the medium to long term, ARB is transforming from an L2 token into a rent-collecting stock for the Robinhood ecosystem—this narrative shift has more potential than pure public chain valuation logic. $ARB $HOOD $BTC
#HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 August NFP came in at 162K vs 55K expected more than 3x consensus, right after last month's 23K print. Unemployment steady at 4.1%, wages +0.3%. This is the hawkish surprise that could unwind the 90% rate-cut pricing the whole market ran on this week. First reaction in crypto is likely risk-off. The dovish narrative just got its first real test, and it didn't pass clean. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #HawkishSurprise $BTC $ONDO $ETH Just now, the non-farm payrolls exploded! Bitcoin instantly dropped below 80,000, bulls don’t sleep tonight $BTC
At 8:30 PM, when the US August non-farm payroll data was released, the entire market went crazy. New jobs added were 162,000, while the expectation was only 56,000, and the previous value was negative. This data is not just "better than expected," it’s overwhelmingly off the charts. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% with no change.
As soon as the data came out, the US dollar index surged 34 points instantly, gold plunged $70 straight down, and Bitcoin fell 1.61% within an hour, breaking through 80,000 directly.
To be honest: this big drop was not accidental. Previously, Bitcoin violently surged from 77,000 to 82,000, relying on the market betting on weak non-farm data and the Fed not daring to raise rates. But once the data came out, expectations were dashed, and bulls were instantly hit hard.
Now the market logic is very clear: employment is so strong that expectations for a Fed rate hike in September are heating up again. For the crypto market, expectations of tightening liquidity are the biggest bearish factor. Bitcoin can’t hold 80,000; the next defense levels are 78,000 and even 76,000.
Trading advice:
Non-farm far exceeded expectations, rate hike expectations are heating up, short-term bears dominate. Don’t rush to bottom-fish, and don’t blindly chase shorts; wait for the market to stabilize first. If you have positions, set stop losses; if you’re empty-handed, be patient and watch the 78,000 support level first #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 The non-farm payroll data has been updated. Overall, it aligns with market expectations. The unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, and the non-farm employment figure is more than double what the market anticipated, which also indicates that the U.S. economic environment is not bad. Moreover, the annual and monthly wage growth rates—one exceeding expectations and the other meeting them—both suggest that the economy is still far from a recession.
Especially since everyone knows that the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments mainly reference inflation and employment, good employment data is generally favorable. However, given that everyone currently hopes for at least no rate hikes, this data is actually bad news.
It offers no support for holding rates steady; on the contrary, because the data is quite strong, it may even allow the Fed to withstand the consequences of rate hikes.
Actually, I didn’t buy any dual-currency products today. I’m waiting for the non-farm data to come out before deciding, especially since it’s Friday and buying means holding for three days, so it’s better to be cautious. BTC Nonfarm Night: How Three Scenarios Play Out
$BTC BTC currently at $80,900, up 4%. Today, after Waller's dovish speech pushed it past $82,200, it pulled back. $80,000 turns into support, $82,000 is the ceiling. Tonight at 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls, expected +55,000, previous -23,000, forecast range -25,000 to +125,000 with huge divergence.
Weaker than expected (<30,000 or negative growth) → Bullish: Employment remains weak, rate hike probability drops below 30%, dollar falls, yields decline, BTC breaks above $82,000 targeting $85,000, a pullback to $81,000 is a buying opportunity.
Stronger than expected (>100,000) → Bearish: Strong employment reignites inflation fears, rate hike probability jumps back above 70%, BTC drops to $78,000, extreme test at $76,000, avoid bottom fishing and wait for stabilization.
In line with expectations (40,000-70,000) → Sideways: Moderate with no surprises, BTC oscillates between $79,000-$82,000, sell high and buy low but avoid frequent trades.
July already showed negative growth and leading indicators are weak, so the probability of weakness is not low, but the range is too wide to heavily bet on direction, manage position size well.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Non-farm payrolls far exceed expectations, Bitcoin instantly plunges
Just now, the US August non-farm payrolls were officially released:
The market expected an increase of only about 55,000 jobs, but the actual number came in at 162,000, nearly 3 times higher than expected, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%.
This is why as soon as the data came out, $BTC immediately dropped sharply from its high.
The logic is simple.
The stronger the employment, the more confidence the Federal Reserve has to maintain high interest rates or even raise them, which is naturally short-term bearish for risk assets like BTC.
However, I will not turn bearish just because of this one data point for now.
BTC has already broken through 81,000 earlier, now let's see how this data shock is digested.
If it can reclaim 81,000 later, my previous judgment remains unchanged, and the next target is still 84,000. 非农数据后紧缩预期升温 掉期市场显示美联储9月加息概率突破60% 9月4日，在最新非农就业数据公布后，交易员进一步加大对美联储9月加息的押注，掉期市场显示9月加息概率已超过60%，市场对流动性收紧的定价显著上升。 9月4日，非农就业数据公布后，交易员正持续提高对美联储9月加息的押注。掉期市场显示，9月加息的概率已超过60%，意味着市场已将加息视为大概率事件，紧缩预期明显回归。 非农就业数据是美联储制定货币政策最核心的参考指标之一。当就业表现强劲时，市场通常解读为经济韧性充足、通胀回落乏力，美联储因此更倾向于维持甚至加码紧缩立场。掉期市场是机构交易者对利率路径进行定价的主要工具，其隐含概率的变化直接反映资金对未来政策的真实押注，超过60%的定价说明利率预期在数据公布后发生了方向性上修。 这一变化的重要性在于，它标志着市场对宏观流动性环境的定价逻辑发生转变。一旦紧缩预期持续强化，无风险利率与贴现率上行将对各类风险资产形成统一压制：加密市场方面，BTC、ETH等资产对流动性高度敏感，资金成本抬升会直接削弱其估值支撑；黄金方面，实际利率上行将增加持有无息资产的机会成本，构成压制；美股方面，科技HYPE's HIP-4 has moved from "functional expectation" to permissionless actual operation stage, and the first batch of data has begun to prove real usage.
After third-party permissionless deployment opened on August 29, the daily trading volume of HIP-4's Prediction/Outcome Markets quickly rose from about $545K to a peak of about $2.75M. As of September 1, two third-party deployers have launched 115 Outcome Tokens, with cumulative matching volume of about $6.6M.
More importantly, it creates direct demand for HYPE: third-party deployment of HIP-4 markets requires staking 500,000 HYPE, and the first Builder Outcome has actually staked this HYPE; Unit also plans to deploy its own HIP-4 market as early as September 5, involving an additional 500,000 HYPE staking.
This means Hyperliquid's roadmap is continuing to expand from:
Perp → HIP-3 Stocks/RWA/Commodities → HIP-4 Prediction/Outcome Markets
Moreover, each important market deployer added by Builder may form new HYPE lock-up demand.
$HYPE #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ After the non-farm payrolls release, Bitcoin $BTC fell back from around 82,000 USD, dropping below 81,000 USD, with a 24-hour decline of about 1%. The previous rally was driven by Waller's dovish remarks and short covering; over 400 million USD in short positions were liquidated within 24 hours. BTC quickly surged to 82K but then lost momentum.
If the data exceeds the expected 56,000, the probability of a rate hike will rise again from 50%, with risk assets taking the initial hit; if it falls short of expectations, the 80K support can be solidified.
⚠️ Current key point: Whether BTC can hold the 80,000 USD psychological level. Holding it will maintain the 80,000-82,000 USD range; breaking it will target 78,000 USD, then 76,000 USD. Leveraged longs should be cautious of increased volatility after the non-farm payrolls; the September 11 CPI is the true directional anchor before the September FOMC.
$ETH $SOL
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC Nonfarm payrolls at 162,000, so why hasn't BTC crashed yet?
Tonight's US nonfarm payrolls aren't just "a little stronger."
New jobs added: 162,000, while the market only expected 55,000.
Nearly three times the expectation.
Private sector jobs also reached 127,000, with an expectation of only 45,000; unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.
More importantly, last month's employment data was revised upward. Previously, the market saw July nonfarm at -23,000, now the prior value has changed to +21,000.
This directly undermines the most comfortable market logic of the past 24 hours:
Weak employment → Fed doesn't need to rush rate hikes → US Treasury yields fall → BTC rises.
Now employment suddenly isn't that weak.
But BTC hasn't immediately given back all of yesterday's gains; it is still around $81,000.
This is more interesting than just looking at the 162,000 figure alone.
Because although this report shows strong employment, wages haven't overheated across the board: hourly wages rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations, 3.1% year-over-year, only 0.1 percentage points above expectations, and lower than last month's 3.2%.
So it seems to be telling the market:
"A pause in rate hikes in September isn't so certain."
But not yet:
"A rate hike in September is already set in stone."
Next, don't rush to guess BTC's rise or fall.
Watch the second reaction 5–15 minutes after the data release:
If the dollar and US Treasury yields continue to rise, and BTC starts to steadily give back yesterday's gains, it means the market is repricing the rate hike risk.$BTC just had its previous nonfarm payroll employment data revised upward, with the combined new jobs added in June and July adjusted up by 55,000. The actual situation of the U.S. labor market is clearly stronger than the initial figures. After this revision, the market quickly adjusted expectations, increasing bets on a Fed rate hike in September. The employment data continues to show resilience, indicating obstacles to the downward path of inflation. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields gained upward momentum, liquidity tightening expectations heated up, bringing negative pressure on crypto risk assets from a sentiment perspective. $ETH
However, it is important to distinguish that this is only a revision of historical data, not the official August nonfarm report to be released tonight, and it will not directly drive a one-sided rally in Bitcoin. It is more of an early risk warning. Previously, most market views predicted this nonfarm report to be bullish. With this news interference, the difficulty of breaking through the key weekly neckline at 82,800 has increased. At this stage, it is advised not to heavily bet on a bullish rally in advance. It is recommended to patiently wait for the evening nonfarm data release, combine it with real market signals to follow the trend, manage positions well, and guard against the risk of two-way spikes in data-driven trading.Nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations to impact risk assets; Bitcoin falls below $80,000, net liquidations exceed $200 million in one hour On September 4, U.S. nonfarm payroll data far exceeded market expectations, dampening easing expectations triggering a sell-off of risk assets, causing the crypto market to plunge in a short period and Bitcoin plunging below the $80,000 mark. According to Coinglass data, within the first hour of the data release, contracts across the network saw over $200 million in liquidations, with long positions liquidated totaling $186 million, causing heavy losses in long leveraged positions. On September 4, the latest nonfarm payroll data far exceeded market expectations, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains strong. After the data was released, market expectations for the Fed's easing pace quickly corrected, putting risk assets under collective pressure. The crypto market was the first to experience a plunge, with Bitcoin plunging below the $80,000 mark in the short term. According to Coinglass data, in the past hour after the data was released, the total contract liquidation across the entire network exceeded $200 million, with long positions liquidated as high as $186 million, accounting for over 90%. A large amount of long leveraged positions betting on the continuation of the market were forcibly liquidated during the sharp decline. The core logic of this round of decline lies in the repricing of macro liquidity: strong nonfarm payrolls mean the job market is highly resilient, the Fed lacks urgent pressure to cut rates, and previously priced in easing expectations have been squeezed, and marginal liquidity tightening expectations have directly hurt valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin. In recent years, the crypto market has become increasingly closely linked with macro liquidity expectations, and the timing of nonfarm payroll and CPI data releases often acts as catalysts for sharp market volatility. The liquidation structure is also worth watchingThe US added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. Employment resilience surpassed expectations, directly rewriting the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace. After the data release, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index quickly rose, risk assets collectively came under pressure, Bitcoin briefly fell below the $80,000 mark, with a daily decline of 1.81%, triggering some long position stop-losses. Major altcoins like Ethereum followed suit with a synchronous pullback.
Previously, Japanese listed company Remixpoint liquidated ETH, SOL, and other coins, retaining only Bitcoin holdings, reinforcing the institutional narrative of "BTC first" in the market. This further amplified coin differentiation during the pullback, increasing the pressure of altcoin capital outflow. US stock futures erased gains quickly after an initial surge in pre-market trading, with crypto concept stocks like Coinbase also under pressure.
The major bullish trend has not been completely broken, but short-term momentum has clearly weakened. The $80,000 level has shifted from support to short-term psychological resistance, with key support now in the $77,000–$78,000 range. The market's core focus will next turn to the CPI inflation data, which will directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions at the September meeting.
Currently, market volatility has increased, with risks of spikes and sweeping orders back and forth rising, making blind bottom-fishing or chasing longs unsuitable. Operationally, priority should be given to position management, setting reasonable stop-losses, focusing on defensive observation, patiently waiting for market stabilization, and watching whether the $80,000 level can be reclaimed before considering further layout.
Summary: The better-than-expected non-farm payrolls brought a macroeconomic bearish shock, and the market has entered a phase of volatile digestion.August Nonfarm Payrolls: Employment is ridiculously strong, double the expectation
The August nonfarm payrolls just landed, and the data slightly exceeded expectations:
• New jobs added: 162,000, expected only 50,000-60,000
• Unemployment rate: 4.1%, did not rise to 4.2%
• Average hourly earnings year-over-year: +3.1%
• More importantly, July nonfarm payrolls were revised up from -23,000 to +21,000
Employment is stronger than imagined, which is not good news for the crypto market in the short term.
The logic is simple: stable employment → the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates. Coupled with oil prices and service sector inflation pressures, the expectation for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting may need to be reconsidered.
The market has already reacted:
BTC fell from above 81K to about 79.9K, dropping about 1.5% in minutes, but it is still up over the past 24 hours.
Since the data just came out and liquidity is thin, don’t rush to catch the falling knife.
In the short term, I still expect a range-bound movement between 78K and 82K. The real direction will be decided by the September FOMC and subsequent inflation data.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 比特币ETF吸金7.31亿美元 贝莱德引领需求激增美国现货比特币ETF在9月3日录得约7.31亿美元净流入 标志着在当月市场出现大量资金流出后，需求迅速回升 贝莱德的比特币信托基金(IBIT)在当天占据主导地位，净流入约4.54亿美元，占该类基金总流入的60%以上 贝莱德的数据显示，IBIT在当天之前已持有约600亿美元的净资产 这一时间点尤其值得注意 比特币在地缘政治波动和债券收益率上升后，一直在7万美元上方区域挣扎，但随后突破8万美元，价格甚至上涨至8.1万美元以上 但因为国债收益率回落，并且美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒的言论改善了风险情绪 以约8.1万美元的比特币价格计算，7.31亿美元相当于大约9000枚$BTC 约为2024年减半后比特币目前每天约450个BTC发行量的20倍 这种比较并不意味着ETF在当天一定购买了这么多现货BTC 但它说明了投资需求相对于新挖供应的规模 需求不仅限于比特币 美国现货以太坊ETF吸引了大约1.41亿美元 其中贝莱德贡献了约7200万美元 这表明此次资金流入代表了对受监管的加密货币敞口的广泛需求，而不仅仅是比特币的单一流动 对于BTC来说，更大U.S. August 2026 Nonfarm Payroll Report The U.S. Department of Labor released the August 2026 nonfarm employment report in September. In that month, the U.S. added 160,000 nonfarm jobs, below the market consensus expectation of 185,000, and down more than 20% from the revised 202,000 in July. This marks the third consecutive month of slowing growth, confirming a continued moderate cooling trend in the U.S. labor market and ongoing easing of supply-demand imbalances. By industry structure, employment growth heavily relies on support from the service sector. Healthcare and social assistance added 41,000 jobs, the highest across all industries, driven by persistent rigid demand for medical care due to population aging; leisure and hospitality added 32,000 jobs, with restaurant and accommodation positions continuing to recover during the summer consumption peak; professional and business services added 27,000 jobs, stabilizing after temporary staffing positions ended a continuous decline. The goods-producing side showed weakness, with manufacturing losing 11,000 jobs and construction losing 8,000 jobs, reflecting the gradual impact of weakened real estate and industrial demand under a high interest rate environment. Wage growth also slowed, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year in August, both below previous values and market expectations. Labor cost pressures eased, providing important support for the decline in core service inflation. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, labor force participation held steady at 62.7%, and the share of long-term unemployed slightly decreased. Overall, the employment market remains in a healthy range without signs of a sharp downturn risk. This data directly influences the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. Cooling employment combined with ongoing inflation decline... Nonfarm payrolls hit hard! Data far exceeds expectations, risk assets need to be repriced
📢 US August nonfarm payroll data released:
Nonfarm employment increased by 162,000, expected only 56,000, significantly higher than expected; previous value also revised up to 21,000.
Hourly wage annual rate 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3%, wages remain sticky.
Overall, this is a hawkish nonfarm report. Employment did not weaken, wages did not cool quickly, the market will lower expectations for a September rate cut.
Market logic:
✅ US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen
❌ US growth stocks and storage sectors under pressure; BTC and ETH risk assets face pullback pressure.
$ETH, as a high Beta asset, will have greater pullback elasticity than $BTC.
Key points to watch:
1. Employment data is strong, but the unemployment rate still needs to be confirmed later; a single data point will not directly lock in the interest rate decision;
2. The market's earlier rebound betting on rate cuts now faces expectation falsification tests;
3. Storage stocks are already at a rebound high, tonight's selling pressure risk increases.
After the nonfarm data release, volatility will increase, so be sure to manage risk when holding positions against the trend; do not stubbornly hold on.Writing 📊 $SNDK SanDisk: Fluctuating within the $1,515–$1,600 range, light position to try shorting! $SNDK Recently, it has been fluctuating in the $1,515–$1,600 range for almost three days. In the short term, I prefer a light position to try shorting, but I won't heavily bet on the direction. Technically: • Although the MACD has formed a golden cross, the upward momentum is weak • Trading volume has not significantly increased so far • Resistance above $1,600 still exists • Without volume support, breaking through $1,630 directly will be quite difficult So currently, it seems more like: high-level oscillation + waiting for direction selection. Of course, fundamentals are not one-sided bearish. 🧠 Industry Level: Supply and Demand Remain Tight, Price Increases Begin to Diverge. A recent report from Bank of America pointed out that the spot market supply satisfaction rate in September had dropped below 50%, and it is expected that spot DRAM and NAND prices in September still have room to rise by 10%–20%. Goldman Sachs also maintains its view that the memory chip industry is on the rise. On the other hand, market data also shows that although prices for DRAM and NAND categories continued to rise in Q3, the growth rate has clearly slowed compared to Q2. In other words: the logic behind storage price increases remains, but the "acceleration of price increases" is slowing. This is actually a concern for $SNDK, which has already risen sharply. 🏦 Institutional views: Huge divergence. The bullish side is very aggressive: • AllianceBernstein Group$BTC Bitcoin Flash Crash Truth: The "Hawkish" Signal Behind the Nonfarm Data Revision 🦅
Many were confused by Bitcoin's sharp drop just now? The answer is actually in the latest Jin10 data flash report below.👇
The U.S. Labor Department suddenly "reversed" and revised up the nonfarm payroll data for June and July by a total of 55,000! Especially for July, it was directly revised from "a decrease of 23,000" to "an increase of 21,000." What does this mean? It means the U.S. economy's resilience far exceeded expectations, partially disproving the recession narrative.
The market had originally priced in aggressive rate cuts in September (even 50bp), but with such strong data, is the Federal Reserve still in a hurry to flood the market with liquidity? Obviously not. Rate cut expectations cooled, the dollar index rebounded, and Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive asset, naturally took the brunt of the sell-off.
This is a typical case of "good news is bad news." Don't just focus on the candlestick charts; the revision of macro data is the real culprit behind this round of shakeout. Everyone, pay attention to risk control and don't blindly catch the falling knife. $ETH One year ago today, $SOL was still hovering around $140. Looking back now, that sharp drop in October feels more like a watershed moment. Some traders luckily avoided liquidation that day, while others have been stuck with a single position for a whole year. This trader’s experience is not uncommon: shorting from $180 all the way to $243, each stop loss made him think a turning point was near, but when he reversed to go long at $248, the market quietly shifted. What’s even more frustrating is that when Ethereum surged above $4700 and everyone was shouting about $5000 or even $10000, he chose to chase longs, only to face continuous declines and repeated shocks from geopolitical conflicts. Shorting during a one-sided bull market and going long amid daily conflicts—this sense of mismatch is a shared memory for almost all leveraged traders. Actually, his dilemma wasn’t about directional judgment but about position management and stop-loss discipline—having too much margin gave room for risky procrastination. A year has passed, and that position is no longer just a profit or loss figure but more like an obsession he’s unwilling to let go. But the market never changes its course because of emotions; learning to make peace with mistakes might be more important than predicting price points. $SOL is highly volatile, and leveraged trading carries extremely high risks. Please assess your own risk tolerance rationally. $ETH This non-farm payroll data is too pessimistic, I took profit and closed all the added positions during this period, leaving only the base Ethereum holdings and will observe for nowWhat happened to $BTC? Bitcoin plunged sharply to $79,850
Bitcoin just broke below the $80,000 mark, hitting a low of $79,850, down more than 4% in 24 hours.
Behind this plunge are three combined forces squeezing the market:
1. Macro environment cooling — The US-Iran conflict escalated again, oil prices surged, the 10-year US Treasury yield soared to a high of 4.8%, and interest rate pressure severely hit risk assets. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September jumped from 35% to 70%.
2. ETF fund outflows — The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net outflow as high as $236 million, and Bitcoin's on-chain "apparent demand" indicator turned negative again.
3. Technical resistance — BTC encountered massive selling pressure at the strong resistance level of $82,000, with profit-taking concentrated.
The market is currently awaiting tonight's US August nonfarm payroll data, which will be a key signal to judge the Fed's next move. If the data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will further suppress the market; if the data is weak, it may provide a breathing space. Nonfarm payroll data exploded — the market responded with a drop
August added 41,000 jobs, below the expected 53,000. July was revised down from -23,000 to -47,000, and the combined revision for June and July was another 24,000 downward. Employment weakened for two consecutive months, much worse than expected.
September rate hike expectations plummeted from 50.2% to nearly 0. CME shows the first rate cut expectation moved forward from December to November, with the number of rate cuts this year increased from 1 to 2. Treasury yields plunged, the dollar weakened, gold surged to $4382. BTC soared from 77,000 to above 81,000, up more than 4.7%.
The macro logic has completely shifted. The market’s biggest fear before was the "September rate hike" risk, and this data basically eliminated it. The question now is "when will rate cuts come, and how many times."
The bias is bullish, but no chasing the highs tonight; wait for a pullback confirmation before acting. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 After the release of nonfarm payroll data, Bitcoin plunged below the $80,000 mark After the release of nonfarm payroll data on September 4, Bitcoin plunged rapidly, falling below the $80,000 mark at $79,801.99, a drop of 1.61% in the past hour. Macroeconomic data became the dominant factor for short-term pricing in the crypto market. On September 4, after the release of nonfarm payroll data, Bitcoin plunged rapidly, with its price falling below the $80,000 mark. Market data showed it was quoted at $79,801.99, down 1.61% in the past hour. Nonfarm payrolls are one of the most important macro events each month, directly affecting market judgment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path: if employment performance exceeds expectations, the market will delay rate cut expectations and raise the interest rate center, putting pressure on risk asset valuations; If the data weakens sharply, it may trigger recession fears and risk aversion. In any case, the moment the data is released, it will cause dramatic volatility. In recent years, with the involvement of institutional funds and ETF channels, the linkage between the crypto market and macro liquidity has significantly increased, and Bitcoin's sensitivity to data such as employment and inflation has increased significantly. This time, Bitcoin plunged rapidly after the data release and fell below $80,000, indicating a bearish market interpretation of the data and a correction in liquidity expectations that are unfavorable for risk assets. As an important psychological threshold and a cluster of chips at $80,000, a break below this level can easily trigger a chain reaction of leveraged long liquidations and stop-loss effects, further amplifying short-term declines. For traders, the timing of the nonfarm payroll release has always been one of the most volatile windows in the crypto market, and this time it exited$CORE Hard Fork Fails to Save CORE – Drops to 0.0214
Core DAO's emergency hard fork was supposed to fix the validator reward exploit. Instead, CORE tanked to 0.0214.
The problem? No transparency — how much was over-issued? Any extra tokens already dumped? No answers. Meanwhile, exchanges suspended withdrawals, freezing liquidity.
Retail investors aren't scared of bad news. They're scared of not knowing how bad it is.
You can patch code. You can't patch trust. The US nonfarm payroll data just came out, and it's not just a general 'better' but significantly higher than the market's original estimate. For ordinary people, this is good news for the US economy. But for the current financial markets, things aren't that simple. Because in recent weeks, the market has been trading a very important logic: US jobs are cooling → Fed pressure is easing, → interest rate expectations are falling → US dollars and US Treasury yields are under pressure, and → $BTC, $ETH, and altcoins are gaining liquidity. Now, the nonfarm payrolls have suddenly been much stronger than expected, which is like a brake on this logic. So tonight, what really matters is not 'whether the nonfarm payrolls are good,' but whether the Fed will need to maintain its easing expectations in September. Previously, the market had been adjusting its September rate expectations due to employment, inflation, and Waller's statements. If strong employment continues to push up the probability of rate hikes, the first reaction is usually a stronger dollar, rising bond yields, and risk assets under pressure. That's why I don't immediately call for a bull market confirmation just because $BTC has just surged to around $82,000. Because yesterday's rally traded "liquidity improvement." Today's nonfarm payrolls suddenly told the market: the US economy may not be as weak as you think. This will force the market to recalculate interest rates. But there's a very crucial detail here. If $BTC can hold above $80,000 or even continue to push above $82,000 after such strong employment data, that would be very significantNon-farm payrolls released, SanDisk rebounds, floating loss shrinks to 71U
Tonight the non-farm payroll data came out, with 41,000 new jobs added, below the expected 53,000, and the previous value was revised down from -23,000 to -47,000. Coupled with wage growth also below expectations, all three data sets point to a cooling labor market. After the data release, rate hike expectations plummeted, the Nasdaq rose 0.45% in the short term, and tech stocks collectively breathed a sigh of relief.
SanDisk also bounced back, reaching a daytime high of 1608, currently closing near 1580. The grid continues to operate, with an average daily arbitrage of 1453 times and cumulative grid earnings of 45U. After adding positions, the holding quantity reached 2 coins, the average opening price dropped from 1665 to 1632, and the floating loss shrank from a peak of -329U to -71U, close to breaking even.
The forced liquidation price is 1056, still far away. Next, observe whether the 1600 level can hold; if it does, the position can turn profitable. No operation tonight, feeling reassured after the data release.
$SNDK AI spending isn’t slowing down — but Wall Street is starting to demand perfection.
Dell, Broadcom, and Snowflake just gave the market three very different signals.
Dell raised full-year revenue guidance from roughly $167B to $192B, while AI server revenue jumped from $60B to $74B. Its AI server orders over the past 12 months have now topped $130B, with $60.9B of orders this quarter and a $95B backlog.
The message is p.
The long-term AI
#DailyOrbit Suddenly understood that what Nvidia spent $12.9 billion on was not a model library
but the distribution hub for open-source AI. Hugging Face is like the GitHub for models—uploading, downloading, evaluation, and inference all happen there. Whoever controls this registry stands at the crossroads of the entire open-source ecosystem.
The final agreement was signed on September 2, with a total price of about $12.93 billion, of which about $11.9 billion goes to shareholders, and up to $1 billion is reserved for employee equity retention. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027, pending antitrust approvals from the US and Europe, which are still ongoing.
Jensen Huang specifically promised that the platform will remain open, will not force the use of Nvidia hardware, and will support multi-cloud and multiple accelerators. The more concrete this promise is, the more it shows that regulators truly fear vertical integration leading to biased entry points.
The sudden realization is here: chips are already bottlenecked by computing power, and by taking over the neutral hub, Nvidia effectively controls open-source distribution as well. In the short term, this might improve developer experience, but in the long term, pricing power and ranking authority are the real battlegrounds.
This acquisition, on the eve of the nonfarm payroll and FOMC, acts more like a catalyst for risk appetite. NVDA rose about 3%, with tech growth moving together, but regulatory review remains a slow-moving variable.
#NvidiaPlansToAcquireHuggingFaceFor$12.93B
#OKXProphet:SeptemberFOMCInterestRateDecisionPredictionOnline
#LastDataBeforeFOMC:ThisFridayNonfarm
$BTC $ZEC: Shrinking volume resists decline, is it gathering strength or running out of steam?
From a brief surge from 788 to 842, nearly 40 million in transaction volume sparked some life into the dull market. But the flame didn’t catch; the price quickly fell back to 811, indicating that buyers chasing the high are not eager to fight, and the 842 level has become a new resistance marker.
Interestingly, the pullback happened with low volume. This suggests the selling was not a panic stampede but more like natural profit-taking on short-term gains. Holding steady above 800 actually shows a kind of "support" resilience. But resilience does not equal aggressiveness; under the current volume structure, the price seems more like it’s searching for a liquidity balance point rather than a trend breakout point.
Neither bulls nor bears have shown dominance, and the market has entered a stalemate. In this situation, taking the initiative risks becoming passive; it’s more profitable to wait for the market to choose a direction on its own. The short-term range is 795-805, with a defense line at 842. The strategy remains: no chasing, no killing; give the price enough time to play out, hold coins and watch, and wait for clearer volume and price signals before making decisions. The market is not short on opportunities, but it lacks certainty. The risky, blood-licking moves are left to the experts.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 非农数据引爆市场：现货黄金急跌逾70美元，美元指数冲高至99.36 9月4日非农就业数据公布后，市场对美联储政策路径的预期迅速重估：现货黄金短线下跌逾70美元至4405美元/盎司，现货白银短线下跌1.5美元至65.7美元/盎司，美元指数DXY短线走高34点至99.36。 本次行情的直接触发因素是非农就业数据的公布。从资产价格反应看，美元指数与贵金属呈现典型的数据强、美元强、金价弱组合，表明本次非农表现大概率超出市场预期，市场削减了对美联储短期内降息的押注。机制上，非农数据是美联储货币政策最重要的观察窗口之一。当就业数据强于预期时，市场倾向于认为美联储没有迫切的降息压力，名义利率预期上行，若通胀预期变化不大，实际利率预期随之抬升。黄金作为无息资产，其定价与实际利率呈显著负相关，因此数据公布后金价承压明显，短线跌幅超过70美元。白银除受同一宏观逻辑压制外，还兼具工业属性，波动幅度通常更大。值得注意的是，尽管短线急跌，金价仍处于4400美元上方的历史高位区间，说明此前支撑金价的央行购金、避险需求等中长期逻辑并未被单次数据逆转，本次下跌更多是利率预期修正带来的回调。对加密市场而言，非农数据同样Nonfarm payrolls shocked expectations far beyond expectations! BTC plunged sharply, keeping the crypto world restless 🔥 tonight. Recently, the nonfarm payroll data was released: 162,000 people were actually announced, while the market expected only 56,000, far exceeding expectations, with employment data unusually hot. According to macroeconomic logic, strong employment means expectations for Fed rate cuts will be pushed back significantly, the dollar strengthens, and risk assets are under pressure. The moment the data was released, BTC plunged rapidly, falling from around 81,300 to a low of 80,123, with a short-term maximum drop close to 1.28%. Looking back at history, in May 2024, the non-farm payroll also far exceeded expectations, with BTC's largest drawdown over 8% in two days. Tonight, the same scenario played out again. From the 15-minute candlestick chart, a large bearish candlestick directly breaks through the short-term moving average, breaking through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and instantly wiping out the bulls' short-term advantage. - Short-term first support: 80,120, currently testing this level - Key strong support below: 79,500; once it falls, the pullback space will open up further - The resistance above has returned to 81,000-81,300, turning this into a strong resistance zone ⚠️. There are two key points to watch now: 1. Going forward, wage and unemployment data should be monitored as supplementary measures; if wages rise in tandem, the negative factors will further intensify; 2. The crypto market often experiences "sharp drops followed by violent rebounds." Don't blindly chase short sellers at the sight of large bearish candles; posting needles and sweeping losses at nonfarm rates is normal. With the market weakening, the risks of MEME coins are amplified, like USELESS美国8月非农新增16.2万人远超预期，降息预期面临重定价 美国8月季调后非农就业人口新增16.2万人，远高于预期的5.6万人；失业率4.1%符合预期；7月前值由-2.3万人大幅上修至2.1万人。强劲的就业数据削弱了市场对美联储快速降息的押注，流动性宽松交易面临重新定价。 9月4日公布的美国8月就业报告显著超出市场预期：季调后非农就业人口新增16.2万人，而市场预期仅为5.6万人，实际值接近预期的三倍；失业率录得4.1%，符合预期，与前值持平。更值得注意的是，7月非农由最初公布的-2.3万人上修至+2.1万人，表明劳动力市场并未像此前数据暗示的那样陷入收缩。这一数据的背景在于，此前7月非农负增长一度引发市场对美国就业市场快速降温甚至衰退的担忧，降息预期随之升温，风险资产也因此受益于宽松预期。而本次8月数据大超预期叠加前值明显上修，基本否定了就业骤然失速的叙事，意味着美联储在货币政策上拥有更多观望空间，市场此前抢跑的降息交易需要重新校准。这份报告的重要性在于它直接改变利率路径预期：当经济韧性更强、降息紧迫性下降时，流动性宽松逻辑被削弱，而加密资产和黄金恰恰是对流动性与实际利率最敏感的资产类August Nonfarm Payrolls announced on September 3 (Thursday) at 20:30: only 22,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 53,000, with the previous value revised down to -12,000; unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (expected 4.2%); average hourly earnings year-over-year 3.0%, meeting expectations. ADP at 38,000 and ISM Services Employment at 47.8 had already hinted at weakness.
The market instantly repriced: 10-year US Treasury yield plunged to 4.74%, the US dollar index broke below 98.5, CME September rate hike probability dropped from 50% to 28%, and even started pricing in a rate cut in November. BTC rose from 80,500 to 81,800, ETH broke 2520, with over 400 million in 24h short liquidations—weak nonfarm plus dovish Waller resonance, short squeeze continuation.
But the 22,000 increase is still positive, not a recession falsification; the real watershed is the August CPI (September 11). The 81,000–81,500 range was the top edge of the previous two waves; a volume breakout above 83,000 would be considered a reversal attempt, chasing the wick = paying a bailout fee to short-coverers. Wait for a pullback to 78,000–79,000 with low volume to stabilize for a low long, or stand above 83,000 and follow the right side.Surging to $1025: $ZEC's real fire is in the ecosystem.
Recently, $ZEC's rally is forming a rare resonance.
On-chain data shows "BTC OG whale" Garrett shorted about 32,760 ZEC at an average price of $444. Now with the price approaching $1025, the unrealized loss is about $19.03 million.
Although his BTC long position has an unrealized profit of $5.38 million, it still cannot cover the loss from the ZEC short.
Such a huge contrarian short position may become fuel for a short squeeze as the price continues to rise.
The capital side is also heating up: ZEC has returned to the top five in Hyperliquid's 24-hour trading volume.
In the lending market, the bear market re-borrow rate has risen to 65.1%, and the proportion of ZEC collateral from high-net-worth users has increased to 24.2%, indicating holders prefer to collateralize rather than sell at low prices.
On the ecosystem front, ZEC's token launchpad shld.fun uses ZEC to participate in ecosystem Meme trading. The trading heat directly converts into spot demand, and the platform has seen several tokens multiply tenfold or hundredfold, directly driving daily gains over 17%.
ZEC's short-term trend has shifted from "privacy coin catch-up" to a dual driver of "ecosystem demand + short squeeze expectation," with fierce volatility expected above.
shld.fun is the igniter; we will see if there are sustained hotspot applications to follow.
If trading volume, on-chain usage, and ecosystem projects continue to expand, ZEC will achieve a true valuation reshaping.
Currently, be cautious with sentiment-driven trading and high-leverage chasing.What is the predicted impact of today's upcoming non-farm payroll data release on cryptocurrencies ($BTC, $ETH)?
Here are three forecast indicators:
1: Non-farm > 100,000 (bearish for crypto) - The market will believe the US economy remains strong, the Federal Reserve stays hawkish, and the probability of a rate hike increases.
2: Non-farm between 30,000~80,000 - This is currently the most concentrated range of market expectations.
3: Non-farm negative again (bullish for crypto) - However, the market already knows July's non-farm was negative, so to trigger a super rally, the data needs to be significantly worse than expected. From the information and capital perspective: today's biggest risk is not a weak non-farm, but a non-farm that exceeds expectations strongly.
✌️✌️✌️Spot ETF Flows Back In: Why Are Institutions Still Fixated on Interest Rate Repricing?
The latest QCP report highlights a subtle shift in the market. After earlier outflows, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows again on Thursday, with spot demand visibly warming up and leverage ratios returning to a healthy range. Many believe the bulls have regrouped and are ready to launch a new rally.
But if you look closely at institutional positioning sentiment, you'll find everyone is actually holding their breath. The current obstacle preventing Bitcoin from breaking through the $81,500 resistance isn't overcrowded long contracts, but the real selling pressure from high-level accumulated chips. The more critical variable lies not within the crypto space but in macro funds repricing hawkish interest rates.
A week after the Jackson Hole symposium, Waller's speech pushed the market back into a deadlock over whether to raise rates or hold steady. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls just need to slightly exceed expectations for Wall Street's tightening bets to resurge. Plus, with the U.S. Treasury set to launch $4 billion in bond buybacks and concentrated issuance on September 9, the dollar liquidity drain machine hasn't stopped.
The sporadic return of spot ETF inflows alone is far from enough. Until the macro interest rate shoe drops, the $76,700 to $81,500 range will remain a meat grinder of stock competition. Institutions are now competing not on who dares to push harder, but on who can preserve principal amid tightening liquidity expectations.
With spot demand warming colliding with macro liquidity drain, do you think Bitcoin can break through the heavy selling pressure at $81,500 in the short term? Brothers who followed the rhythm yesterday, have you stuffed all the big gains in your mouth? Are you all dazed from eating so much?
The market is indeed smoother than the past two days. BTC brushed near its previous high, ETF capital inflows are strong, and the single-day net inflow is clear, indicating it's not just pure contract-driven sentiment. ETH is a bit slow but has also stood back above 2500; spot/ETF flows are still recovering, and the structure is more stable than last week. DOGE's capital sentiment has also returned, with improvements in on-chain and on-exchange net flows. Grayscale-related holdings movements have added fuel to the narrative, but don't treat a single data point as ironclad evidence; meme coins still depend on sentiment and liquidity resonance.
The key now is the macro window: if tonight's non-farm payrolls are moderate, risk assets can continue; if employment is strong and rate hike expectations rise again, earlier gains are likely to be given back. Current rate hike pricing is oscillating at a high level, and the market is sensitive, so avoid heavy bets on direction before and after the data.
In terms of operations, lock in some profits first, let the rest run with the trend; breakouts need volume confirmation, and pullbacks should be supported around BTC's previous high zone and ETH 2480-2500. DOGE is strong in the short term but volatile, so don't chase too aggressively.
Not investment advice. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Last night, Bitcoin surged over 5% at one point, climbing back above $80,000. The direct catalyst was the dovish remarks from Fed Governor Waller: if upcoming inflation data continues to cool, he leans toward keeping rates unchanged at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The market immediately lowered its expectations for a September rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk asset sentiment improved accordingly. It's worth noting that Waller was relatively hawkish during his Jackson Hole speech, and the market had previously pushed the probability of a September rate hike higher.
Last night's rally felt more like a continuation on top of the existing rebound, combined with easing rate hike expectations. Going forward, we still need to watch Friday's nonfarm payrolls and the September 11 CPI; if the data heats up again, rate hike expectations could reverse at any time.
The short BTC position I gave yesterday has already hit stop loss. The short Ethereum position hasn't hit stop loss yet and is still being held. The stop loss can be moved down to 2530. I'll wait for the nonfarm payrolls tonight to see the situation before placing new orders.TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — $ZEN (15m)
Market bias: BULLISH BIAS 🟢
🎯 trend continuation | Confidence 86/100
Price zones to watch: 6.406
Scenario invalidation level: 6.10971
Technical target 1: 6.77636
Technical target 2: 6.99858
Technical target 3: 7.29487
RSI14 59.1 | ADX14 19.7 | MACD +0.00437 | Vol 0.85x
A 15m close through SL invalidates the setup; the stop defines the risk boundary.
Educational analysis only—not financial advice.
#OKXOrbitTopics#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Tonight's data will determine the market trend
There are 30 minutes left before the big non-farm payroll data is released. Tonight's non-farm payroll is a directional choice. I reminded this morning to wait and see, but before the afternoon session, Ethereum still surged sharply, reaching a high of 2547. In short, funds have entered the market early to position themselves because tonight's non-farm data is very likely to be positive.
This data is very important. If it exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike will surge, indicating that the US economy is still very resilient. The market may worry again that high interest rates will last longer, funds may flow back to the US dollar, and tech stocks and the broader market may face short-term pressure. If it falls short of expectations, the probability of a rate hike will be suppressed, making a September rate hike impossible. The US dollar and US Treasury yields may decline, and funds will flow back to risk assets. US stocks, Ethereum, and Bitcoin all have a chance to rise.
My personal prediction: the data released tonight will first cause a rise and then a fall. The entire crypto market is paying close attention to this news. What do you think?Crypto concept stocks collectively surged yesterday, is the crypto circle about to replicate the 2021 bull frenzy?
At the US market close on 9/3, crypto concept stocks collectively soared:
$xMSTR +17.36% in one day, closing at $162;
$xCRCL +13.2%, closing at $88;
COIN +10.4%, closing at $245;
$xHOOD surged 16.57%, closing at $112.
This is the strongest single-day performance in the crypto sector since the spot ETF passed in January 2024.
The direct cause is Waller's dovish stance igniting rate cut expectations, combined with a $420 million net inflow into BTC spot ETFs yesterday, showing strong institutional buying sentiment.
Robinhood also announced that its stock tokenization platform now supports 24/5 trading of European stocks, opening retail access in 7 EU countries.
However, caution is advised: MSTR's current mNAV multiple is 2.1x, close to the bubble peak in March 2024.
COIN at $245 corresponds to a 35x forward PE, indicating a severe premium.
CRCL's market cap has risen to $18 billion, but stablecoin revenue growth is slowing down.
This rally heavily depends on BTC price; if Friday's non-farm payrolls disappoint, funds could reverse at any time. It is recommended to reduce positions rather than chase highs. CME is really in a hurry this time.
They sued the CFTC themselves, but now the CFTC is asking the court to dismiss the case outright.
The reason is quite interesting:
You say you were harmed by competition, but you can do it yourself.
CME previously targeted Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contracts, arguing that such products should not be treated as ordinary futures but regulated as swaps.
But the CFTC's current stance is very clear:
Kalshi can do it, that doesn't mean CME can't.
Think you’re at a disadvantage?
Then do it yourself.
So the really interesting part of this matter is not about who is more stubborn between CME and CFTC.
It's that the traditional futures giant is starting to notice a change:
Perpetual contracts used to be the domain of crypto exchanges.
Now Kalshi is bringing them into the compliant U.S. derivatives market.
This might be what truly makes CME uncomfortable.
The market never waits for you to slowly adapt just because you are an established exchange.
New products have already arrived.
The only question is, who can master the rules first.
$BTC $ETH