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🇰🇷 Korea got hit with Friday’s chip selloff today.
KOSPI opened -4%+ after the market was closed during the global semi rout. $Samsung and $SK Hynix both dropped over 5% intraday and sentiment cooled off fast.
But Korea isn’t driving AI anymore. The next real signal comes from US Big Tech earnings. I’m watching Microsoft and Google specifically.
It’s not about profits now. It’s about AI CapEx. If MSFT, GOOGL, and Meta keep pouring into data centers and buying GPUs + HBM, then this chip drawdown is just a healthy correction in a bull. Sentiment recovers.
If they slow spending or AI growth misses, semis get another leg down on valuations.
📉 Short term: cautiously bearish. 2 years of huge gains + geopolitical noise + rate pressure = more downside tests during earnings.
🚀 Long term: still very bullish on AI. The war is for compute. As long as data centers keep being built, demand for GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging isn’t going away. I’m treating this as a reset, not the end of the AI rally.
Not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit
#CXMTMemoryIPO $SOL is the sol that trapped retail investors the most severely in this round. What will the subsequent trend be?
SOL fell from $295.83 in 2025 all the way down to $60.13 in June this year, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 80%. This round definitely trapped a lot of retail investors. But the most deceptive thing about SOL is here: when it rises, it seems to have no ceiling, and when it falls, it looks bottomless.
If you buy a coin and can't even understand its trend, why bother buying it? Many people still fantasize about it rising to 500 or even 1000. You might as well first look at the market cap. This coin has been continuously issued; the market cap at the high point is the same as a few years ago. Whether it can return to the highest point in the next bull market is also a question. So why did it rise so sharply this round? One reason is the ETF approval, and the other, of course, is hype.
So what will the subsequent trend look like?
Undoubtedly, the big trend will still have another big drop. The bear market is not over yet, and the three big downward waves are not finished.
However, the long liquidation volume within 5% below the current price is about $4.25 million, which is about 4.6 times the short volume above, mainly concentrated between $71.4 and $73.3. This means SOL could completely first squeeze out a round of shorts upward, then come back to test the longs; or it might not give a rebound and directly clear the longs below.
So where is the big bottom for SOL?
In the last round, SOL fell from $259.90 to $8, with a maximum drawdown of 96.9%. But that round was compounded by the FTX collapse, so it can't be mechanically copied. More importantly, SOL's history is still very short; strictly speaking, it only has one complete bull and bear cycle, far fewer samples than BTC or ETH. This round fell from $295.83 to $60.13, already a 79.7% drawdown. So $60 itself qualifies as the first big bottom, rather than needing to be halved again to be called a bear market.
If BTC has one last deleveraging round in Q4, I would place SOL's secondary bottom observation zone between $45 and $60, with special attention around $50. $30 to $40 can only be considered an extreme scenario under systemic risk and should not be regarded as a price that will inevitably be reached for bottom fishing.
So where are the opportunities for ordinary people?
Many retail investors said they would hold long-term at $200, but when it dropped to $60, they found they didn't have a penny left. So the most important thing now is not to guess the bottom every day, but to preserve your principal, keep your patience, and keep the qualification to dare to act during the next market panic.#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision early Thursday morning — tonight could be more exciting than expected, as this week's biggest macro event is coming.
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30 (Thursday), the Fed will release its July rate decision, followed by a press conference with the new chair, Waller. Originally, everyone thought the Fed would definitely hold steady, but in just one week, the script has completely changed.
A week ago, the market priced only a 13% chance of a rate hike in July. Now, CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike has surged to 36%-38%. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists all expect no change.
Economists are betting on no change, but traders are aggressively hedging for a rate hike — such a split is extremely rare. PGIM's chief economist even described this meeting as almost a 50-50 split. Why the sudden reversal in expectations? Three fires are burning simultaneously:
① Brent crude oil has broken through $100/barrel — the ongoing Iran conflict is pushing energy prices higher, sharply increasing inflation rebound risks. Oil prices have risen about 25% since the Fed's June meeting.
② The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.69%-4.7%, and the 2-year Treasury yield has already exceeded the Fed's 3.75% rate cap, indicating the bond market is pricing in a rate hike in advance.
③ New tariffs have been implemented — last Friday, the US imposed new tariffs of 10%-12.5% on 60 trading partners, with a legal basis that is harder to challenge.
These three factors combined have pushed market anxiety about inflation to the max.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
The logic chain is clear:
Rising oil prices → inflation expectations rebound → market bets the Fed won’t ease → US Treasury yields rise → US dollar strengthens → global liquidity tightens → risk assets (including Bitcoin) come under pressure.
If there is an unexpected 25 basis point hike early Thursday — although the probability is less than 40% — if it happens, global risk assets could face a sharp adjustment.
If rates hold steady but Waller signals a hawkish stance — for example, hinting at a September hike — the market will also struggle. The market has already fully priced in a 25 basis point hike in September.
The most troublesome part is that after taking office, Waller has clearly abandoned forward guidance, emphasizing that each meeting is a "real-time" decision. This means he is unlikely to give clear signals tonight, and the market will have to read between the lines.
No matter the outcome tonight, volatility will be high. The sustainability of oil prices, the direction of the Middle East situation, and Waller’s attitude toward inflation are the core variables for the coming months.Changxin opened with a surge of over 500%, experiencing volatile fluctuations, with its market value peaking at 3.4 trillion yuan, then falling back to 2.6 trillion before rebounding, and it still tops the A-share market.
South Korea's SK Hynix surged then fell, erasing its opening gain of over 2%, but this is not simply a case of "China's storage beating Korea's storage," rather it is a direct clash between two pricing systems.
One prices based on the narrative of "domestic substitution + scarcity," the other prices based on "global cyclical profitability."
1/ The valuation gap is very clear
Changxin: 3.4 trillion yuan market value, with the issue price corresponding to a static PE of about 300 times; even using the annualized profit from the first half of this year’s surge (H1 net profit about 55 billion yuan), it is still nearly 30 times.
SK Hynix: about 16 times PE, with approximately 30% global DRAM market share.
Changxin holds the fourth largest global DRAM share (about 4–5%), yet its market value was once more than twice that of SK Hynix, which holds the second largest share. This cannot be explained by fundamentals; it is the A-share scarcity premium plus T+1 liquidity squeeze.
2/ The "bloodletting theory" is just surface logic
Funds selling other storage stocks to chase the leader put pressure on SK Hynix and Samsung. But this is a one-time liquidity event, not a trend. A giant IPO’s first day high open and subsequent pullback is almost a fixed script—don’t treat the opening price as a valuation anchor.
3/ The real signal lies beneath the surface
Changxin’s revenue in the first half was 110–120 billion yuan, net profit 50–57 billion yuan. This is the first time a domestically produced DRAM leader with real profits has entered the capital market. The story of China’s storage self-sufficiency now has a tradable target. The supply landscape is changing—this is the long-term variable that should keep SK Hynix awake at night.
4/ SK Hynix’s decline is half emotion, half warning
Half is "bloodletting" panic, half is a reminder: if Changxin continues to expand production, the risk of DRAM oversupply in the second half of the cycle will increase. Morgan Stanley in July shifted the storage pricing anchor from "price elasticity" to "profit sustainability"—Changxin’s capacity is precisely the new variable in this equation.
5/ Crypto players entered early
On Hyperliquid, CXMT perpetual futures have been steady at $6–7 (about 43 yuan / 2.88 trillion yuan market value) for two weeks pre-market, with the largest short continuously increasing positions to the tens of millions of dollars. The on-chain market has long been signaling: this premium is unsustainable. Today’s 440% rise in the A-share market is, to some extent, catching up to and then overextending this expectation.
Conclusion
A 3 trillion yuan market value is the peak of sentiment, not a valuation anchor. What is worth remembering is not how much Changxin rose today, but that China finally has a storage leader that can go public and truly make profits. Prices will return to normal, but the change in the landscape will not.Changxin is another SpaceX opportunity. Now most people know that SpaceX has a high FDV and low circulation supply, so it has been steadily declining from 200 to 113.
So what about Changxin?
- High FDV: currently valued at 49, 3.3 trillion RMB
- Low circulation: currently almost 80% of circulation is from new issuance, 6.73%
And that's it, the rest is the unlock after 6 months.
So the key point is from now until the unlock in 6 months. It was difficult to trade before, but now with Hyper, institutional investors have a strong "hedging demand".
$SPCX 大饼持续陷入区间拉锯，多空反复博弈，市场整体增量资金迟迟没有进场。大盘方向模糊之际，资金开始分头行动：一部分埋伏ETC博弈减产预期，另一部分轮番炒作热点山寨币，盘面分化愈演愈烈。无数交易者困惑，当下主线到底在哪里？$BTC $ETH 一、BTC：震荡格局未打破，决定整个市场天花板 比特币长期维持箱体来回震荡，上下支撑、阻力十分清晰。 现阶段行情定性：存量资金博弈，没有明确单边趋势。每当BTC大幅拉升，资金才有底气流向山寨；一旦大饼承压回调，所有高弹性小币种会率先遭遇抛售。 历史规律不断验证：大饼是整个市场的压舱石，山寨很难走出脱离BTC的独立大行情。 短线盘面多空博弈剧烈，合约资金频繁互相收割，不要盲目赌单边，等待方向有效突破之后再顺势操作更加稳妥。 二、ETC：减产叙事持续发酵，利好究竟是机会还是套路？ ETC最大核心热点依旧是减产预期，这也是近期资金持续关注它的根本原因。 回顾历史走势，ETC多次出现“预期提前炒作，落地迎来兑现砸盘”。资金提前埋伏博弈供应缩减的故事，在临近利好节点，大量低位筹码会选择逢高出货。 现阶段ETC依托叙事维持震荡上行，但是必须认清隐患：生态活跃度偏弱，The strongest signal this time is not just the rise in US stock futures, but the rapid reduction of the crude oil risk premium.
If oil prices continue to fall, inflationary pressures and hawkish expectations will ease, making capital more willing to replenish highly elastic assets like BTC. If spot market demand expands simultaneously, this wave is likely not just a simple pause, but the starting point for a new round of rallying.
A ceasefire is responsible for turning the tide.
Only when liquidity flows back can BTC be pushed to higher levels.This morning, I woke up and glanced at the screen, almost thinking I was seeing things—
Brent crude plunged, dropping over 6%, briefly breaking below the $90 mark during trading. WTI was even more aggressive, plunging as much as 8% intraday and hitting a low of $83.
The reason is simple: the U.S. military has suspended airstrikes on Iran. Iran also stated that as long as the U.S. stops its strikes, Iran will cease its military operations. The market's pricing for a "ceasefire agreement reached before the end of August" has soared to 75%.
Overnight, after 13 days of fighting, it seemed to be coming to an end.
And then?
Nasdaq futures opened 1.4% higher. Bitcoin has climbed back above $65,000. Gold and silver surged across the board.
Wait, something's off.
Three days ago, Brent crude oil was still above $100. Three days later, the market had already priced in the "end of the war."
Have you ever wondered—has the ceasefire agreement been signed?
No.
The U.S. is only "suspending" airstrikes, not "stopping." Iran said, "As long as the US stops, we will stop," but then added—"We are skeptical of the US intentions." Trump himself said, "If necessary, it can definitely be elevated to a higher level."
The ceasefire agreement was barely in the blue, and the market had already pushed oil prices from 100 to 83.
Does this scene look familiar?
Intel's earnings report was explosive, with a 13% surge in after-hours trading, and the Korean stock market circuit breaker the next day.
The U.S. military paused airstrikes, oil prices plunged 6%, and risk assets collectively celebrated.
A scenario of all the positive news is playing out in every market.
The crypto world is even more outrageous. Bitcoin fell below 64,000 during last week's session to today's above 65,000. All because of a "pause" announcement. A "pause" that could be overturned at any moment.
What are you happy about?
Oil prices fell, inflation expectations fell, rate hike expectations cooled down—this logical chain is correct. But the premise is: the ceasefire is real and lasting.
What if tomorrow Trump approves a new strike plan? After all, he had been approving for 13 consecutive days every day. What if Iran's "skepticism" turns into actual action?
The market is cheering for something that hasn't happened yet.
This is not an investment, this is gambling.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not bearish. I just feel like this market has gone crazy—a "pause" can cause oil prices to drop 6%, and a "possibility" can make Bitcoin rise by 1000 points.
The fluctuation itself is the only certainty.
Do not pursue Gao. Let the bullets fly a little longer.
Once the ceasefire agreement is truly signed, it won't be too late to enter the market.
$BTC $BZ $CL
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower There is a clear liquidity stratification between BTC and altcoins, and the rebound is not a broad-based rally
Is the current rally sustainable, or is it just a concentrated game of existing funds on a few targets?
Key fact: Prices are rising, but trading volume is not expanding in tandem. Open interest has cooled, with overall trading volume remaining stable rather than expanding. Funds are highly concentrated in a few assets such as BTC, ETH, and SOL, while most altcoins have not received sustained buying support. Specifically, tokens like $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, and $SLX saw inflows, while tokens like $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, and $TRUMP showed significantly weaker participation.
Market structure changes: This rebound is characterized by highly selective liquidity. BTC remains the biggest liquidity magnet, ETH attracts institutional funds, SOL attracts high-beta trading, and $HYPE acts as a thermometer of risk appetite. Altcoins show clear divergence: a small number of tokens with narrative support receive short-term capital, but most lack genuine, spontaneous buying depth. This suggests that the market has not yet entered a phase of a full return to risk appetite, but rather traders are waiting for more confirmatory entry points.
Pricing impact: Current pricing reflects efficient rotation of existing funds within a limited scope, rather than a broad rally driven by new capital inflows. For BTC and ETH, if liquidity cannot spread from the current narrow concentration to the broader altcoin market, the current rebound structure may fail. For altcoins, unless BTC continues to strengthen and drives overall trading volume backward, most altcoin gains will lack sustainability.
Bullish path: If BTC can break through key resistance levels with increased volume, driving ETH to follow, and observe more funds flowing into L1/L2 and AI narrative coins, the market may shift from a structural rebound to a phased broad rally. Condition: Trading volume has expanded for three consecutive days, and risk appetite indicators such as $HYPE and $WLD have strengthened in tandem.
Bearish risk: Trading volume continues to shrink, funds remain only speculative in a few current targets, and most altcoins continue to lose blood. If BTC experiences a surge and pullback, liquidity stratification will quickly evolve into liquidity exhaustion, leading to a larger pullback for altcoins. Condition: BTC breaks below short-term support, or retail sentiment indicators such as $DOGE and $ZEC weaken.
Conclusion: The current market is in a liquidity selection period, and the quality of the rebound depends on whether trading volume can move from concentrated to diffusion. Before confirming trading volume, priority should be given to the structural strength of BTC and ETH, rather than the participation value of all rebounds.
Are you also observing which altcoins are gaining real buying support? $BTC $ETH $SOL$OKB stop rising, consolidate more
If the price is too high, the amount of coins bought by dollar-cost averaging will be less
Here’s my personal view
The Fed meeting is on Wednesday
The crypto market has already reacted in advance,
Steadily upward, the probability of a rate hike is low
The Fed is juggling inflation with one hand and debt with the other
So it’s impossible to shrink the balance sheet or raise rates
It’s in a state of left-brain right-brain conflict
They can only act through expectations
For example, debt pressure + provoking conflicts, releasing rate hike signals, the market trades as if rates will rise, but in reality, no rate hike happens, achieving 80% of the effect of a rate hike, strengthening US bonds and the dollar, which caused the recent market drop and inflow into US bonds
After that, inflation data is released, the economy looks better, market pessimism eases, and it rallies again,
This is called a weak version of the dollar tide
The Fed manages expectations to achieve goals, with limited effect
It’s not ruled out that there will be several violent rate hikes this year, but they will be immediately followed by rate cuts, debt can’t bear it, the interest rate cycle remains unchanged, still in a monetary easing cycle #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
With the super week just starting with some warmth, I'll pour cold water directly: BTC standing back at 65,000 + fear and greed back to 30, it won't hold until Friday, let alone clear through the weekend.
No beating around the bush: this rebound is essentially a short squeeze driven by expectations of no rate change — CME shows a 63%–93% probability of maintaining rates in July, Polymarket once hit 93%, but this FOMC won't update the dot plot, so the market can only price based on Powell's words at 2:30 AM.
Oil prices breaking 100, inflation retreating, the risk of hawkish repricing hasn't disappeared, and there's still about a 35% chance of a rate hike tail. What does fear and greed at 30 mean? It's the upper edge of the fear zone, not a restart of greed. This number combined with 65,000 just means a correction after overselling, not a trend reversal. Technically, 64.5k–65k is a trapped zone that was just broken and reclaimed; 67k–68k is the real resistance. Holding 63.6k below would be lucky; if not, it goes straight back to 62k.
My judgment is straightforward:
Midweek sideways is a low-volume fake stability before the meeting; Thursday's FOMC is the watershed. No change + Powell soft talk → a spike above 65,000 to 67k, then half the gains give back by the weekend; no change + hawkish statement/implying possible hikes by year-end → 65,000 becomes a ceiling, looking below 63k by weekend. Small chance of a direct 25bp hike → don't ask, continuation, 62k might not even hold.
So the only scenario I trust for warmth to last through the weekend is if the Fed deletes the "further tightening" words from the statement — but currently, Powell has no reason to support the bulls.
Crypto veterans know: Monday's rise in a super week is often deceptive; the real direction is set in the 48 hours after the meeting.
My own position this week: no adding longs at 65,000, treat 63.6k as a range-bound grind if it holds, if it breaks, reduce first and don't try to bottom-fish.Capital often leaves quietly. Senator Loomis gave a striking figure: 90% of the spot market and 80% of the futures market have gone overseas. She bluntly stated that if the bill fails, once capital is established in Singapore and compliant, it will never return.
This set of data is actually the result; the current discussion is no longer about retaining capital, but about how to bring them back. The absence of clear rules does not mean freedom; it is full of uncertainty, and no one dares to take root long-term. Capital flows do not depend on borders or tax rates; it depends only on whether the rules are stable and whether policies will change next year.
Now the logic has reversed: capital can freely choose where to settle first, then countries are forced to rush legislation. The voting window for the bill is getting tighter, but regardless of the outcome, the fate of the crypto industry is no longer decided by a single national parliament. Capital that chooses where to go is unstoppable; it can only be actively accepted. #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Favorable Moments or Shortcoming? 🇰🇷 The South Korean stock market fell more than 4% in a supplemental drop, with memory chip stocks continuing their decline
When the global semiconductor sector plunged sharply last Friday, the related decline was not reflected in time due to the suspension of the Korean stock market. After today's opening, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) opened more than 4% lower, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell more than 5% intraday, further cooling market sentiment.
At present, what truly determines the future trajectory of the AI industry chain is not the Korean stock market, but the financial reports that the American tech giant is about to release.
Next, I will focus more on the performance of **Microsoft and Google**.
The current market focus is no longer just on profit, but on AI capital expenditure (AI CapEx). If tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Meta continue to expand their data center investments and keep purchasing GPUs and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), then this round of adjustments in storage chip stocks is more likely to be a deep correction within a bull market, with market sentiment expected to gradually recover.
However, if these tech giants begin to cut capital expenditures or AI business growth falls short of market expectations, the semiconductor sector may still face further valuation downgrades in the short term.
📉 In the short term, I remain cautiously bearish.
Over the past two years, the semiconductor sector has seen huge cumulative gains; Combined with geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, ongoing rate hike expectations in the Korean market, and a decline in overall risk appetite, the market still has the potential to continue testing the bottom during earnings season.
🚀 But in the long run, I remain firmly optimistic about the AI industry.
At the core of AI competition is essentially a competition in computing power. As long as global tech giants continue to invest in building data centers, the demand for GPUs, HBMs, and advanced packaging will not disappear. Therefore, I prefer to view this adjustment as a reshuffling in a bull market rather than the end of the AI rally.
⚠️ The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $FWDI $SOL /USDT
Current Trend: The price is showing signs of stabilizing after a period of volatility, currently trading at $72.90.
Technical context: SOL/USDT is trading near MA20 ($71.63), which acts as a key turning point. While still below its recent high of $83.39, the asset has recovered from a low of $60.02, signaling a consolidation phase.
Market Developments: Solana's broader ecosystem is currently witnessing significant corporate activity, including unsolicited acquisition proposals by Forward Industries (FWDI) for other Solana-focused entities such as Solana Corporation (HSDT) and Sky Eye (Skya). Forward Industries#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #OilDropsOnCeasefire The surge of Changxin Technology today is an irrational market valuation of domestic DRAM. I previously said I would track Changxin Storage just like tracking $spcx.
Changxin Storage holds only about 8% of the global market share, its technology is still 1-2 generations behind, and it is a cyclical manufacturing enterprise highly dependent on state subsidies and domestic market protection. Yet, within a few hours, its market value was pushed to over 3 trillion RMB. This wave of euphoria is people betting on AI-driven national destiny overwhelming fundamentals, far from sustainable global competitiveness.
1. Serious mismatch between share and valuation
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron together still hold about 90% of the global DRAM market, each with a market cap reaching the trillion-dollar level in the AI supercycle. Changxin’s share climbed from almost zero a few years ago to 7-8%, which is indeed remarkable, but there is still a huge gap before it truly threatens the top three. Yet on the A-share market, it enjoys valuation premiums close to or even temporarily surpassing some giants.
This is not a company growth premium for Changxin Technology; it is the pig standing at the forefront of this wave, enjoying a high uniqueness premium plus policy endorsement premium. Global storage is a strongly cyclical industry, with peak PE ratios usually in the single digits to teens; however, the A-share market is willing to discount the next decade’s domestic substitution and HBM dreams all at once through narrative. The result is that today’s price already implies an almost perfect execution and continuous doubling of market share assumptions. Once the cycle declines or capacity expansion falls short of expectations, the valuation crash will be brutal.
2. Success and cost of local state-owned capital
Changxin’s progress to date undeniably relied on sustained funding from Hefei state capital, the Big Fund, and local debt-like financing, combined with domestic market protection forced by export controls. This is a typical result of concentrated efforts to accomplish major tasks. Without this system, mainland China might still lack the capability for large-scale mass production of general-purpose DRAM.
However, the high IPO premium essentially transfers past fiscal input and future policy dividends to secondary market investors. Early shareholders and local governments have realized capital exit and paper wealth, while the real cost of technological catch-up is paid by the market through a bubble.
This logic has been verified in photovoltaics and electric vehicles, which in the short term foster champions but in the long term tend to suffer from overcapacity, price wars, and innovation inertia. Storage is even more capital-intensive and dependent on process window timing than the previous two, so the damage from a bubble burst will be greater.
3. Similar to SMIC, deeper structural issues
SMIC’s STAR Market debut in 2020 also saw a 200%+ surge on the first day, with market value soaring instantly, followed by a long digestion period. Changxin’s script today is highly similar, only larger in scale and with hotter narrative.
A-share pricing mechanism for hard tech has flaws: it excels at paying huge premiums for breakthroughs that choke supply chains and domestic substitution, but it struggles to continuously distinguish true technological leadership from scale expansion under policy protection. Capital is locked in large amounts in safe but not necessarily optimal assets, while frontier R&D requiring long-term patient capital (such as EUV alternative paths and next-generation bonding technology) may be marginalized.
4. Is this good in the long run? Champagne at halftime
Short-term morale boost and financing convenience are real, but when the stock price has already prepaid the outcome of catching up or even surpassing, management, local governments, and investors tend to celebrate the present rather than face harsher realities—HBM yield rates, advanced node equipment, global customer trust, and real survival ability if sanctions escalate. Global storage ultimately competes on cost curve, process window, and customer stickiness, not A-share market cap ranking.
Changxin has taken ten years to leap from zero to the world’s fourth largest. But today’s stock price frenzy feels more like a collective ritual hedging technical and institutional uncertainties with emotion and narrative. The real test is not how high it can surge today, but whether in three or five years, when the storage cycle declines, the AI hype cools, and global competition returns to hard power, this company can still stand on its product merits.
If the market ultimately proves me wrong, and Changxin uses solid market share and profits to justify today’s valuation, it will be a major victory for China’s industrial policy. But if I am right, today’s 3 trillion market cap is just another glamorous footnote of a national destiny stock bubble. History will provide the answer, but capital’s memory is often short.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ $BTC According to the latest information from MicroStrategy, there was no Bitcoin trading activity last week.
From June 29 to July 5, MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin in batches, initially selling 1,363 coins at an average price of 59,256. The second time he sold 2,225 coins at 60,773, at a cost of about 75,500 (excluding financing interest and other costs).
Both transactions were sold at a loss.
In this zero-sum market, it can be seen as contributing to the crypto world.
So, don't deliberately exaggerate his impact on the crypto world. Trading is normal behavior; don't assume the market is bad just because he sells.
Selling is essentially losing money; only by losing money can everyone make money. Also, since he holds so many coins, selling a bit is like returning liquidity to the market, which is a good thing.
The financial report will be released at the end of this month, with data from the last day being extracted.
Therefore, it's possible that to improve the financial report, they might push the price even higher.
Closely monitor the related operations of Wowei Strategy.The Fed's crane arm steering is causing the steel structure of the entire crypto construction site to creak. The FOMC rate decision blueprint must pass the stress test before 2 PM on Wednesday—oil plunged sharply on ceasefire expectations, like reducing the weight of a bundle of high-grade steel cables, temporarily relieving the load-bearing wall of energy inflation; and the 187K initial jobless claims data hit a new low, equivalent to the foundation core sample showing compressive strength exceeding the design value by two levels. The labor market's resilience remains, serving as the main pillar preventing the whole building from settling.
But what really needs verification is the capital expenditure guidance of tech giants. The cloud computing power framework built by Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will determine the concrete grade of future AI and on-chain infrastructure—if they cut budgets in their earnings reports, it's equivalent to removing three core load-bearing columns. FTX's fifth round $900 million repayment plan starts on July 31; is this backfilling old ruins with waste or pouring a new foundation? Bitcoin retaking $65,000 only shows that the rebar cage of the price chart has been tied, and the fear and greed index rising to 30 means the broken glass on the site has been cleared.
As for XSNDK, this US stock token is essentially a cantilever structure of a prefabricated billboard—its market linkage depth depends on the left support pillar (Nasdaq liquidity) and the right anchor (crypto market risk appetite). When oil sell-off thins the inflation drywall, when earnings week is about to finalize the next span, and when the steps of the interest rate spiral staircase are still undetermined—you never know if the next drilled pile hole will hit bedrock or quicksand.
The stress test of the load-bearing wall has just begun. #FOMCRateWatch #EarningsObserver: Who can understand the real results from Google and Tesla this time?
Let me start with my view:
The AI money-burning model is backfiring on the entire industry chain.
No one is spared, from platforms to hardware.
Last night's earnings reports are the best proof. Google's revenue exceeded expectations by 24%, Tesla's deliveries were 74,000 units above expectations, yet both stocks plunged after hours—Google down 4%, Tesla down as much as 5%.
The market logic is also changing now: it no longer cares about how much you earn, only how much you burn and whether the investment can break even.
Google's capital expenditure was 44.9 billion, marking the first time in history that free cash flow turned negative. Tesla is even worse, with profits plummeting 57%, gross margin down to only 16.8%, and free cash flow also turning negative. Simply put, this wave of AI spending is making shareholders nervous, and the market is starting to vote with its feet.
What’s even more alarming is that after the earnings were released, SK Hynix $SKHYNIX fell 3%, SanDisk $SNDK dropped 2.5%, Micron $MU also fell nearly 2%, and Nvidia and spcx followed the trend, all dropping together. The once lively market has plunged back into a freeze.
Logically, with big companies buying AI hardware like crazy, these memory chip manufacturers should be beneficiaries, so why are they also falling?
My preliminary judgment: sentiment is transmitting from platforms to hardware, then to chips. The market is starting to worry—if big clients like Google and Tesla are getting hammered because of excessive spending, will capital expenditures shrink afterward? If they do, the first to get hurt will be these suppliers.
In the short term, this drop is a chain reaction of panic, not a fundamental problem. In the long term, as long as AI demand is real, these memory manufacturers will eventually recover. But at this point, chasing highs definitely requires caution.
What do you think? Is this a chance to get on board or a signal to run away?
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch
#AIEarningsWatch #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
This week will be a major test for the financial markets!
Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon AI capital expenditures
Impact of US-Iran situation, whether oil prices $CL $BZ will continue to fall
Whether $BTC can hold above $65,000
The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, tech giant earnings reports, and geopolitical changes—three major variables all on the table.
Early Thursday Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. The market’s main concern now is not whether there will be a rate cut at this meeting, but the policy direction after Powell. Has inflation truly been brought down? Will the secondary inflation risk caused by high oil prices resurge?
Last weekend, the US-Iran situation eased, raising market expectations for a ceasefire. Crude oil prices quickly fell, easing inflationary pressure driven by energy. Oil prices act like a matchstick for the market; previously, a small spark could ignite rate hike expectations, but now the flame is temporarily suppressed, and risk appetite is warming up again.
The second focus is on tech giant earnings.
Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release their results this week. The market is no longer just looking at how much profit they made, but whether AI is truly a money-printing machine.
Over the past year, tech companies have heavily invested in AI infrastructure, with rising costs in data centers, chips, and computing power. If earnings reports show AI revenue growth can’t keep up with capital expenditures, the market may reassess the entire AI valuation logic. But if cloud business and AI commercialization continue to exceed expectations, US tech stocks could ignite another rally.
The third variable is the crypto market.
The fifth round of FTX compensation is expected to start on July 31, and the large capital flow could become a short-term market focus. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $65,000 level, and the fear and greed index is rising, indicating market sentiment is shifting from extreme caution to watchful.
The biggest opportunity and risk this week is the expectation gap.
If the Fed signals dovishness and oil prices continue to fall, US stocks may rebound, and risk assets including BTC could have a chance to test resistance levels upward.
But if tech earnings reveal excessive AI spending or the Fed reiterates inflation risks, funds may seek safety again, putting pressure on the Nasdaq and BTC.
For BTC, it currently seems to be waiting for a directional choice: upside depends on liquidity recovery and institutional capital inflow; downside depends on interest rate pressure and macro risks.
The market is entering a high volatility phase, amplifying both opportunities and risks. In the short term, avoid blindly chasing rallies or panicking on dips, and don’t assume the bull market has fully started just because of a few green candles. Contract users should use low leverage and be cautious of two-way market spikes.
Oil prices determine inflation, the Fed determines liquidity, AI determines US stock sentiment, and BTC ultimately awaits the direction of global capital.
The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute any investment advice! $BTC US stock tokenization is reshaping the underlying logic of the crypto market, with its impact summarized as: "narrative demystification" for Bitcoin, and "liquidity extraction" for altcoins. 🟡 Impact on Bitcoin: Ending the Narrative of "Time Monopoly" · The collapse of the largest moat: One of Bitcoin's past major advantages was 24×7 trading hours. However, Nasdaq plans to extend trading hours to 23 hours a day, and the SEC has approved related rule revisions, eliminating the reason for "traditional market closures." The "digital gold" narrative is diluted: When high-quality assets like Apple and Nvidia can also trade on-chain 24×7, Bitcoin's uniqueness of being "tradable anytime" is greatly diminished. It's not doomsday, but it needs to be reassessed: Bitcoin's decentralization and total hardware cap remain irreplaceable. But its valuation logic must be rewritten; it is evolving from a unique "rebellious asset" into a class of "investable assets" within a globally unified capital market. 🔴 Impact on Altcoins: The Deadly Blows of the Liquidity 'Siphon Effect' · Direct competition and capital diversion: Tokenized US stocks are "value assets" backed by real profits, directly squeezing the survival space of altcoins that rely on "narrative" and "community consensus." Exchanges "Change Course": Due to a sharp drop in crypto spot trading volume (Binance dropped from a peak of $45 billion to $7.7 billion), major exchanges have launched US stock products in search of new growth opportunities. CEXs were once the most important liquidity providers for altcoins, but now they are shifting their core resources toward US stocks. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
If someone has fallen into a pit before, if that pit isn't fixed, it's better to take a different path. Being able to make steady money over the long term is more peaceful than big gains and losses on a roller coaster. Keep investing in $QQQ and $BTC.Fed Decision Week: Multiple Variables Intertwined, Market Competition Intensifies
1. Oil Price Decline and Inflation Expectation Reshaping
Expectations of a ceasefire between the US and Iran have driven oil prices sharply down, with Brent crude falling to around $92, easing energy-driven inflation pressures. However, caution is needed: uncertainties remain over the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and if geopolitical tensions fluctuate, oil price risk premiums could be rapidly re-evaluated. The market is re-anchoring inflation trajectories, providing key variables for the Fed decision.
2. Labor Market Resilience Test
Initial jobless claims at 187,000 were below expectations, combined with a rebound in the employment component of the services PMI, indicating continued support in the job market. However, the divergence between wage growth and job vacancy trends suggests that labor supply-demand imbalances have not fundamentally eased. The decision statement’s wording on the “balance between employment and inflation” will be a core signal for judging the timing of policy shifts.
3. Tech Earnings and Capital Expenditure Trends
Earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are arriving intensively, with capital expenditure guidance exceeding expectations, confirming the resilience of the digital economy. Yet rising hardware costs and supply chain bottlenecks may weigh on profit margins. The “earnings verification period” for tech stocks combined with the Fed decision will intensify market pricing battles over the “soft landing” narrative.
4. Crypto Payouts and Risk Appetite Disturbances
FTX has initiated $900 million in creditor payouts, providing a short-term boost to crypto market sentiment, with Bitcoin returning to $65,000. However, crypto asset volatility remains high, and the payout implementation may cause pulse-like impacts on risk assets. Market focus may temporarily shift to liquidity expectations, requiring vigilance over fund flow changes before and after the decision.
5. Key Focus Predictions for the Rate Meeting
- Interest rate path: the suspense between 75bp vs 50bp hikes remains, with the dot plot revealing the future pace of rate increases;
- Balance sheet reduction pace: whether QT accelerates in September is critical;
- Forward guidance: adjustments to 2023 rate cut expectations may affect market pricing.
The market is currently at an intersection of a “data verification period” and a “policy observation period”: multiple variables such as oil price volatility, labor market resilience, tech spending, and crypto events will be priced in around the decision. Caution is warranted for risks like geopolitical events and corporate earnings surprises or disappointments, which could trigger sharp short-term market volatility. Investors are weighing the “persistence of tightening” against “economic resilience,” competing over the Fed’s “policy balancing act.”
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
@OKX星球 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The most expensive thing this week isn't Bitcoin, it's the punctuation in the FOMC statement.
In the early hours of Thursday, the Federal Reserve dropped punctuation.
A single comma can make the market rise 3%, a period can make BTC instantly bounce back to 62K.
Before the meeting, data was playing a tug-of-war—
Oil prices were pulled down from triple digits by ceasefire expectations, easing inflation worries slightly; but initial jobless claims at 187,000 were below expectations, showing the labor market is as tough as a diamond. On one side, easing imported inflation; on the other, a resilient employment core.
In front of the FOMC lies a set of contradictory data: cutting rates risks inflation rebounding, doing nothing risks the economy not holding up.
Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon all released earnings reports on Wednesday and Thursday, with one key word—capital expenditure. The market is now so tired of hearing “AI investment” that what matters is “how much was invested and when it turns profitable.” Any guidance below expectations means Nasdaq pays the price first; BTC won’t survive alone.
FTX compensation started on July 31, totaling $900 million, just two days after the FOMC. Is this money selling or buying? Past rounds show part of it is withdrawn and never returns, part is bought back. The ratio determines the direction, but no one knows the split this time.
BTC stood back at 65K amid multiple intertwined expectations, with the Fear & Greed Index at 30—high for the month. But a month ago, it was 47, and before that 62. Thirty means the market is still fearful, just a bit better than last week's extreme fear.
Three words: not dead. But not alive.
How much expectation is priced into the current 65K?
Priced in: “Ceasefire happens, oil price drops below 90”;
Priced in: “FOMC wording leans dovish”;
Priced in: “Microsoft, Meta, Amazon capital expenditure not scary”;
Priced in: “Most FTX compensation flows back to the market”——
If any one of these four “priced in” expectations fails, 65K won’t hold.
Before the FOMC decision, any bullish candle could be a selling point, not a buying point.
Wait for the text for direction, FTX for liquidity, earnings reports for structure—
Until these three align, 65K is not a victory line, but an observation line.
Before the FOMC text is out, no one can bet for you this weekend.
The above does not constitute investment advice. In those few seconds when the FOMC drops punctuation, don’t tie your position to the gamble. Why Altcoins May Struggle Under the CLARITY Act While Meme Coins Could Have a Better Chance of Becoming Digital Commodities The CLARITY Act aims to distinguish digital commodities from securities. This doesn't mean all altcoins will fail or all meme coins will qualify—it depends on each project's characteristics. Why some altcoins may face challenges: 1.Many rely on a core team or foundation to drive development. 2.Token value often depends on the ongoing efforts of that team. 3.Token supply mayToday, the entire network's focus is on Changxin Technology
Domestic storage makes a strong debut:
Changxin Technology (688825) surged 471.6% on its first day listing on the STAR Market, opening at 49.5 yuan, with a market cap soaring to 3.31 trillion yuan, becoming the top A-share stock
How impressive is it? Here are some numbers:
• Huge loss of 19.2 billion yuan in 2023 → first profit of 1.875 billion yuan in 2025 → Q1 2026 single quarter net profit of 24.762 billion yuan (+1268%)
• Fourth largest global DRAM market share, number one in China
• IPO raised 57.9 billion yuan, one of the largest A-share IPOs in 2026
However, don’t be deceived by appearances; calmly consider two things:
This windfall profit is driven by the DRAM super cycle + AI demand pushing prices sharply up; essentially, it’s a strong cyclical market, not steady growth — once the price cycle reverses, earnings elasticity will reverse accordingly
Static PE looks absurd (using 2025 thin profits, it’s over 1700x), but using Q1 single quarter profit annualized, the forward PE is about 33x — the market pricing actually assumes "how long the cycle will last," not the past
The STAR Market new stock has no price limit for the first 5 days + T+1 trading; today’s intraday price violently fluctuated from 49.88 to 38.11, clearly driven by sentiment.
My view:
A 3.3 trillion yuan market cap has already priced in many optimistic long-term assumptions
My action:
Run if you can, don’t foolishly rush in
This post is purely trading analysis and does not constitute any investment advice; please DYOR$SHIB Altcoins are indeed facing severe survival challenges; this is not a simple market correction but a "chronic depression" driven by fundamental changes in market structure. Excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, the crypto market's market value has already evaporated by nearly 23% in the first half of 2026.
📉 Core Dilemma: Liquidity Depletion and Structural Capital Diversion
The "water" (liquidity) that altcoins depend on is being drained, mainly reflected in:
· Bitcoin's "Siphon Effect": BTC's market share once exceeded 62%, with funds flowing into BTC through compliant channels such as spot ETFs, no longer rotating into altcoins.
· External capital competition: Tech sectors like AI and semiconductors have absorbed large amounts of venture capital, directly diverting funds that could otherwise flow into altcoins.
⚖️ Supply explosion: The number of tokens is infinite, but their value is scarce
· Massive supply: There are already about 53.5 million cryptocurrencies in the market, with around 60,000 new tokens being created daily. With extreme dilution, about 40% of altcoin prices are hovering near historic lows.
· "Low circulation" trap: Project teams maintain high valuations with extremely low circulating supply, but as massive tokens unlock and release to the market, demand becomes impossible to sustain, resulting in a "four lose" situation among project teams, exchanges, VCs, and retail investors.
🧠 Narrative failure: The old script for the "knockoff season" failed
· Consensus collapse: The market shifted from pursuing "innovation" to "risk aversion," with investors finding that most altcoins lack real return support.
· Logic failed: The previous rotation logic of "BTC rises after BTC rises, knockoffs rise" no longer holds. Market hotspots (such as AI and Meme) rotate rapidly, exhibiting a "short-term rise, quick dispersal" pattern, making it difficult to sustain a rally. Currently, the "Knockoff Season Index" is only around 44, far below the threshold for the "Knockoff Season."
🏛️ Regulatory "tightening spells" and changes in player mindset
· Policy tightening: Global regulations continue to tighten, with China and several other countries reaffirming that virtual currencies are not legal tender and cracking down on related illegal activities, increasing compliance risks for altcoins.
· Retail investors exiting: Spot trading volume will plummet from nearly $50 billion in October 2025 to $7.7 billion in March 2026. The Market Fear and Greed Index is in the "fear" zone, further exacerbating the liquidity crisis.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes even warned that 99% of altcoins could eventually be wiped out. Altcoins that survive in the future will no longer rely on storytelling, but must rely on real revenue, user needs, and verifiable fundamentals to prove their value. $LAB We paid 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD according to the contract, and the funds were first transferred to the so-called "scammer's" wallet. Coincidentally, Gate Alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens, and the platform refused to disclose the complete listing process; Subsequently, the wallet transfers assets into Gate Alpha for airdrops.
On-chain hash records are displayed on the chain, making the truth clear at a glance.
Only after the project has paid the full fees and successfully completed the launch will the platform inform us that the person we connected with throughout the process is not an internal Gate employee.
The successful listing of the project on Gate Exchange is already a done deal. This explanation is hard to reconcile and seriously damages Gate's own credibility. We look forward to the official clear and direct response to all doubts.Preliminary market setup: Over the past three weeks, oil prices have risen unilaterally, with weekly gains exceeding 10% last week. Brent peaked close to $100 per barrel. The core drivers of the rally are Middle East geopolitical conflicts, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea + Strait of Hormuz, ongoing OPEC production cuts, and ongoing depletion of global crude inventories, all of which have led to a large accumulation of long speculative positions. Fundamental Background: In Q3, there was a global crude oil supply-demand gap of 2.1 million barrels per day, with visible inventories falling to yearly lows. The market is highly sensitive to supply disruptions, and geopolitical premiums have become the core support for this round of gains. The intraday market plunged across the board, with the Asian session opening sharply lower and trending downward: - Brent crude September contract: intraday high $96.98, low briefly below $90 key support, closed at $91.89, daily drop 5.05%, down $4.89/barrel; - WTI US crude oil September contract: intraday high $89.31, low $83.92, close at $84.64, down 5.23% for the day, down $4.67 per barrel; Both major stocks hit their lowest prices in nearly a week, with significant retracement of gains from the previous three weeks of bull markets, and the energy sector weakened across the board. The core negative factors that previously suppressed oil prices have been resolved: the US announced a two-week suspension of airstrikes on Iran, Iran simultaneously paused its counterattacks, and both sides signaled easing negotiations; The Red Sea Houthi forces have stated they will not block the Mandeb Strait, quickly cooling market panic over a permanent blockade of the two major energy chokepoints, and significantly reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Although Strait shipping has not fully recovered, market pricing conflicts have risen$USDC
Stable peg setups rely entirely on precise range boundaries and tight risk parameters.
Monitoring volume behavior around median levels ensures clean execution.
EP
0.9998 - 1.0008
TP
1.0020
1.0035
1.0050
SL
0.9985
Current range bounds are staying exceptionally tight as price oscillates near baseline value. Maintaining this stable structure keeps low-risk target levels in play.
Let's go $USDC
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch Market risk appetite ahead of $MSFT earnings has already tightened. The risk aversion triggered by Google's previous earnings, where capital expenditures squeezed free cash flow, continues to transmit, with funds refusing to pay for computing power investments that have not yet realized revenue. If this period's Azure growth cannot match the upward revision of capital expenditures, valuation correction pressure will spread to the US tech sector. When Azure growth surpasses the Capex upward revision and free cash flow remains stable, capital flows will reverse again.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落A new week has begun, and this week has been quite lively!
The U.S. and Iran are restraining each other and renewing hopes for negotiations. Brent crude oil has fallen below 90, at least allowing risk markets to catch their breath this week.
Today, Hefei Changxin Technology was listed on the A-share market. Changxin Technology is a leading domestic DRAM company and one of the largest IPOs in STAR Market history, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan, corresponding to a listing valuation of about 580 billion yuan.
On Wednesday, SK Hynix released its Q2 financial report. I believe the importance of this report is comparable to that of Nvidia, and it is one of the key indicators of this AI rally.
On Thursday, the U.S. PCE data showed that if the core PCE monthly rate exceeds expectations, the market may further bet on sustaining high interest rates longer, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, putting pressure on tech stocks, BTC, and gold; If the core PCE monthly rate falls short of expectations, the market will resume trading. Liquidity improvement is positive for AI tech stocks and crypto assets.
PCE tells the market how inflation is doing, so the Fed's FOMC rate decision on the same day tells you what the Fed is preparing to do.
Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and ARM all released their Q2 2026 earnings reports after the U.S. market closed on July 29, and together with SK Hynix, will jointly decide the direction of global AI tech stocks and risk assets for the coming quarter.
After this week, more data will predict the general trend of risk markets in Q3 and Q4. AI is the future, not a bubble—at least for now, no bubble has formed!In the next week or two, Bitcoin is very likely to continue in a volatile trend, with another round of declines afterward. The reason is actually quite simple: during the rally at the end of June, the price looked good, but there was no incremental capital entering the market. To put it bluntly, it wasn't that there were many buyers or strong demand, but that selling pressure decreased, so the rally barely happened. It was hardly a solid rally. Previously, the market withstood the pressure mainly because everyone was optimistic that the U.S. Cryptocurrency Clarity Act would be implemented smoothly. This positive expectation offset the market's downward pressure. But now the key issue arises: this wave of positive expectations has been dashed, and when the market pulls back, the downward pressure will become fully apparent. Looking at the overall trend, during the July rebound, Bitcoin still failed to break through the key weekly resistance level. Although it briefly surged last week, it quickly fell back and completely lost its footing. Meanwhile, the nominal and real interest rates on US two- and ten-year Treasury bonds, as well as the US dollar index, all rose simultaneously, meaning borrowing costs have increased and liquidity tightens. When liquidity is tight, risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies are suppressed. Normally, the crypto sector shouldn't have pulled off a rally alone. The reason there hasn't been a major drop before is purely because the market is hoping for a clear bill, which has offset the negative side of poor liquidity. But now the situation has completely changed. The clear bill that once supported coin prices basically has little hope of passing in the short term. Previous positive expectations have completely dashed, and the tight dollar liquidity and overall market risk appetite are also absentReal money isn’t made in the noise. It’s made by tracking capital before retail catches on 🧠
This isn’t a normal altseason. It’s a surgical rotation. Funds are piling into a few names while the rest bleed out. Institutions aren’t buying the market — they’re buying specific plays.
Liquidity is here right now:
$JTO $JELLYJELLY $BTCOPG $BTCSLX $LAB $BSB $ALLO $CHIP
Whale interest. Early positioning.
Cooling off / watch risk:
$BEAT $EDGE $COAI $TRUMP $RAVE $SPACE $SOPH $IP $AVNT $ZAMA $OFC $PIEVERSE $VIRTUAL $ACU $H $MEGA
Dead zones, no flow:
$MEME $EDEN $HUMA $ZKP $METIS
The anchors:
👑 $BTC = liquidity king | 🔵 $ETH = institutions | 🟣 $SOL = high beta
🤖 $TAO + $WLD = AI leaders | 🔥 $HYPE = risk gauge | 🐕 $DOGE + $ZEC = retail pulse
Headlines get you late. Liquidity gets you paid. By the time a token is all over your feed, the smart money is already out. ⏳
Don’t chase narratives. Chase flow.
Which coin on your list is showing real liquidity right now? 👇
NFA. DYOR.
$BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch $TSLA
Patience pays off when waiting for high-probability pullbacks.
Let the market prove its intent before rushing into heavy position sizing.
EP
308.00 - 313.50
TP
324.00
332.00
345.00
SL
301.20
Market structure is grinding near key support after a mild dip. Holding this level gives buyers a solid base to push past immediate overhead supply.
Let's go $TSLA
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch A month ago, the market's biggest nightmare was oil prices breaking $100, triggering a second wave of inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to restart rate hikes. However, a week before the FOMC meeting, a direct ceasefire between the US and Iran defused this ticking time bomb hanging over the market.
Inflation expectations quickly cooled, easing downward pressure on US Treasury yields, and the tightening grip on risk assets loosened significantly. The market had already voted with its feet in advance, with BTC rebounding from last week's low back to $65,000, and many traders missing out.
The current fear index remains at 39, indicating that a large amount of capital is still on the sidelines, waiting for the FOMC decision before entering the market to push the rally.
On Wednesday and Thursday, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will consecutively release earnings reports. Their combined AI capital expenditure for 2026 reaches $535 billion, all core "money-burning machines" for AI infrastructure. If earnings exceed expectations, risk sentiment will surge; if not, funds will flow into safe-haven assets. Whether BTC ultimately benefits or suffers depends entirely on capital flows.
On July 31, FTX's fifth round of $900 million compensation will officially start, with some creditors able to recover 120% in excess compensation. Whether this huge sum is deposited in banks or flows back into BTC will be an invisible variable affecting the market.
Don't chase highs after the FOMC announcement. Oil prices have already fallen, employment data is out, and the market has long priced in cooling inflation. The meeting day is always a point where good news is realized or bad news is fully priced in. The real core of the game is always the expectation gap. A soft comment from Powell can push BTC to 68,000, while a hard comment can slam it down to 62,000. Which side has better odds at the current position is clear at a glance. #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 $BTC "DataHunter Crypto Research Report"· July 27, 2026
Understanding the market with data
📊 1. Market Panorama
BTC is currently quoted at 65,200 USDT, up 24 hours +1.4%. OKX market data shows it has broken through the 65,000 mark in the early morning. ETH is at 1,949 USDT, up +4.1% in 24 hours, clearly outperforming BTC.
The Fear and Greed Index rose to 30, up from yesterday's 26, but still in the "Fear" range.
In the past 24 hours, there were $215 million in margin calls across the network, including $54.82 million for long positions and $160 million for short positions. Bitcoin short liquidations amounted to $34.73 million, Ethereum liquidations amounted to $85.18 million. A total of 56,495 people worldwide were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation valued at $9.35 million.
📍 2. Market trends
After two days of volatility over the weekend, BTC stabilized and rebounded near 63,600 in the early morning, with bullish funds continuing to enter and the price strongly pushing to the 65,300 level. Currently, the price is firmly holding above the 65,000 mark.
On the daily chart, MA5 is at 64,818, and MA10 is at 65,157, with the price positioned between two moving averages, with the short-term moving averages convergeing. The 4-hour MACD histogram is above the zero line, but DIF and DEA remain in negative territory, indicating that the rebound is currently within a bearish trend and a reversal has not yet been confirmed. The 1-hour MACD histogram has expanded, and short-term bullish momentum continues to strengthen.
Key locations:
· Resistance above: 65,900-66,900 (previous high area), 67,000-68,000
· Support below: 64,700-64,200 (pullback to lower long range), 63,600 (recent pullback low)
🌍 3. Rebound Driver: U.S.-Iran Easing Triggers a Rebound in Risk Appetite
The core driving force behind this round of rebound is signs of easing geopolitical tensions.
On July 26 local time, the Iranian military stated that the U.S. had ceased its strikes against Iran over the past two nights, and Iran's reciprocal strikes were also suspended. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that recent talks on safe shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz were "productive and made some progress." Trump's decision not to expand military operations against Iraq has eased concerns about an immediate escalation in the region.
As a result, international oil prices fell sharply in the gray market, and risk assets rebounded across the board. The cryptocurrency market surged collectively—Bitcoin climbed back above 65,000, Ethereum rose over 4%, ZEC gained over 4%, DOGE rose about 2%, and Solana gained nearly 3%.
However, it should be noted that the Strait of Hormuz is currently still "closed," and navigation conditions have not yet changed. Iran also stated that whether the U.S. withdraws from the war "will depend on Israel's consent." Geopolitical risks have not been completely eliminated; they are only cooling in the short term.
📌 4. Other important developments
BitMart has seen a stagnation in large withdrawals. Following the announcements of shutdowns by BitMEX and BitMart, large withdrawals on BitMart have stalled, sparking market concerns about a crisis of trust in exchanges. A mix of positive and negative news cast a shadow over the rebound.
Zhao Changpeng: Acquiring centralized exchanges carries high security risks. In response to "Why not acquire small CEXs?", CZ stated that acquiring centralized exchanges is different from other businesses. Once a hacker attack occurs, it is difficult to determine whether it is a backdoor left by the previous team or a new issue, and security and compliance risks are higher.
📝 5. Operating Framework
The current sentiment recovery is driven by geopolitical easing and is not a trend reversal. The 4-hour level is still in a rebound phase within the bearish structure.
Above 65,000, you can hold a light position and hold long, targeting 65,900-66,900. A pullback to the 64,700-64,200 range may be worth considering for low bullish positions. If stagflation signals appear near 66,800-66,900 above, short-term speculation can be used to test the price on a pullback.
The biggest variable this week is the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Before the direction is clear, it's recommended to control positions—not taking positions is part of trading.
DataHunter | Understanding the market with dataUS spot BTC and ETH ETFs both saw net outflows on the latest full trading day, but BTC did not accelerate further decline; instead, it returned to around $65,000. This indicates that the current market is not simply "ETF outflows equaling price drops," but rather a rebalancing between institutional funds, spot demand, on-chain chips, and macro expectations. 1. ETF outflows reflect caution and do not equate to full withdrawal. ETF funds will be dynamically adjusted based on price, macro conditions, and risk budgets. Continuous outflows indicate that institutions have cooled their short-term stance, but data from just a few trading days is not enough to confirm that long-term allocation demand has reversed. Especially as the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, it is not uncommon for funds to reduce risk in advance. The real key is whether ETFs can resume inflows after the meeting. 2. The price has not lost control, indicating that BTC continues to fluctuate after ETF funds weakened, without quickly breaking below the previously formed support area. This means there are still bottom-fishing funds and passive buying forces in the market, and short-term chips have not fully loosened. But consolidation can only prevent rapid declines and cannot directly drive the trend upward. To break through the aboveward resistance, stronger active buying is still needed. 3. The biggest issue in this round of rebound remains insufficient spot demand. Glassnode pointed out that although BTC has clearly recovered from its lows, spot trading and on-chain activity remain weak. This means that this round of rally has not yet attracted widespread market participation, and is more reflected in reduced selling pressure, institutional returns, and position recovery. If spot demand cannot expand,📌 How real is this matter? A wave of price hikes triggered by the upstream supply chain has finally burned from memory and solid-state drives to graphics cards. Recently, Nvidia's RTX 50 series graphics cards have been widely out of stock worldwide, with prices skyrocketing; According to channel sources, NVIDIA has issued price increase notices to AIC partners, and all graphics card brand factories have fully locked down warehouses and suspended shipments. A more direct figure is: GDDR6 memory prices have tripled from $2.5/GB to $7.5/GB; Based on the mainstream 8GB configuration, the raw material cost of VRAM alone for a single graphics card is about 560 yuan higher. For those waiting for price cuts, the era of graphics card price cuts has temporarily ended. 💡 Why it happens: AI is draining capacity—the root cause is not hype, but structural imbalance. Samsung and SK Hynix are reallocating over 70% of their DRAM production capacity to make HBM high-bandwidth memory for AI, while GDDR memory for gaming graphics cards is being squeezed out, with the gap passing through the supply chain to consumers step by step. As mentioned earlier, Changxin Technology's HBM4 tape-out and sample delivery to Huawei is meaningful—whoever can fill the supply gap between HBM and domestic DRAM will hold the crucial point of AI computing power. In short: AI demand is so intense that the entire memory industry's capacity is being "drained" to feed HBM. 🔗 Returning to crypto: The cost of AI computing power on both sides The previous articles discussed AI's "demand side burning money"—the five giants' 1.65 trillion yuan off-balance-sheet debt, Google's negative free cash flow, both insufficient for AI investment by the giants themselves. This post is supplementary📊 $ETH s relative strength today deserves attention.
$ETH has gained roughly 3x more than BTC over the past 24 hours, and with the Iran strike pause helping risk appetite return, the move appears more driven by positioning and capital rotation than by a fresh narrative shift.
Historically, $ETH strength can appear ahead of broader altcoin momentum—but whether this is the start of a larger rotation or simply a short-term catch-up move remains uncertain.
The macro environment still presents challenges.
Lower jobless claims may reduce pressure for the Fed to accelerate rate cuts, keeping real yields elevated and limiting the liquidity conditions crypto typically needs for a sustained rally.
This week’s earnings from major companies like Google and Tesla could also influence broader risk sentiment. Any signs of slowing growth could impact the current market rebound.
For now, confirmation matters. A single strong session doesn’t necessarily define a new trend.
Just my market view, not financial advice.
#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch Papers to be submitted starting Wednesday.
The lingering heat of the weekend has yet to subside, and Changxin's IPO has sent memory memory sentiment to a fever pitch. What truly determines global risk appetite is the quarterly reports from US tech giants in recent days. Microsoft and Meta are expected to submit their data on July 29, with Amazon and Apple following around the 30th. The AI capital expenditure drama has been sung for half a year and still needs to be smashed. This week, it's finally the turn of cloud business, advertising, devices, and services to be laid out and criticized.
Alphabet and Tesla had already started their rounds around July 22: on one hand, the annual Capex was pushed to nearly $200 billion, while on the other, revenue hit record but profits were criticized by the market. Investors' patience is already being exhausted. Microsoft is paying for the Azure and OpenAI ecosystems; Meta wants to prove that its advertising engine can withstand the raging infrastructure fire; Amazon examines the balance between AWS and retail cash flow; Apple, on the other hand, relates to device cycles, service stickiness, and its stance on the pace of AI capital. Four companies issued in succession, essentially completing the entire AI cash flow chain—from spending money to monetization—all in one go.
Because the narrative has long shifted to 'who can hit it and then reclaim it.' Data centers, power, HBM, and advanced process orders are still in place, but the public market is simultaneously penalizing valuations; Oil prices once hovered near several hundred dollars, with geography and inflation expectations intertwined. On earnings night reporting night, besides revenue beats or misses, management also asks whether management dares to further raise the capex and clearly explain the return path.
At the same time, rumors also surfaced that NVIDIA and OpenAI were negotiating about $250 billion in financing guarantees to help lease about 10GW of data centers in Ohio—the financial structure of the arms race is tightening, but patience with financial statements is growing weaker. With these two forces colliding, this week's conference call is the pressure valve.
The stories in TSMC's supply chain never stop: advanced processes are fully loaded, packaging is tight, and AI-related revenue is rising. But valuations often get discounted in recent weeks—orders are still in customer guidance, but the stock price first reflects 'Will Capex be cut, will project launches be delayed?' When an American hyperscaler coughs, Taiwanese chains often first check their temperature. So the conference calls with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are almost a simultaneous stress test for Asian semiconductors.
The pace of armaments can keep moving faster,
Patient reports will be re-priced this week.
After the series ends, the market will split: who's building the future, and who's just burning cash.Changxin Storage's IPO surged, igniting enthusiasm for domestic storage, but the market has already started pricing in long-term capacity competition pressure, with SK Hynix facing sustained short-term pressure.
The mid-to-long-term logic of AI driving storage demand remains unchanged, but the short-term market continues to be suppressed by expectations of new capacity.
Reminder: Changxin's surge ≠ overseas storage strengthening simultaneously. Closely monitor key support levels; trend reversal requires clear signal confirmation.
#SK海力士 #存储芯片 #半导体 #长鑫存储The candle is red, but your warehouse isn't? This is the moment when you should be most clear-headed 🌙
Have you ever felt that the market is clearly rising, but your account feels like it's being paused?
Today I saw an interesting phenomenon: everyone is shouting "Knockoff season is here" because a few coins really soared high. But if you zoom in on the screen, you'll find this is not a spring at all; it's more like a brief dew of flow circling on a few leaves. Behind those rising coins is the same batch of funds repeatedly turning, not new money pouring into the entire garden.
Recently, when reviewing my positions, my strongest feeling is that the market is cleverly focusing its attention on a very small number of winners, making most people mistakenly believe "the opportunity has arrived." But the truth is, many established projects are still declining. This is not a bull market where everyone gets evenly matched, but rather a highly selective liquidity screening.
If you must draw a logical chain, it would look like this:
- Event: BTC stabilizes + individual altcoins erupt -> sentiment is ignited, FOMO begins to spread.
- But the second level of impact is: the funds have not spread outward; instead, they have become more concentrated. BTC serves as a liquidity anchor, while ETH and SOL represent institutions and high beta, and their strength actually absorbed most of the capital. Those knockoffs not on the "core list" are still bleeding.
- What the market is truly trading is not "all altcoins will rise," but "which coins can survive this liquidity battle." This is more like a survival game than a group celebration.
The bullish path is: if BTC remains above key levels and ETH or SOL breaks out, sentiment will spread further, and funds may spill out from core samples to other sectors. That's when the altcoin season truly begins.
The bearish risk is: if BTC suddenly pulls back, or the core asset starts to shrink in volume, this local rally will cool off instantly, and those chasing higher prices will stand at the peak.
My judgment is: now is not the time to chase the rally, but to observe which coins can maintain their structure after the capital wave retreats. Before liquidity spreads, patience is worth far more than excitement.
Ultimately, the market always rewards those willing to wait, not those who always rush to the front.
⚠️ This content is for personal observation and sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL #Altcoins #Liquidity #Patience🐶 $DOGE fell from its all-time high of $0.74 in May 2021 to $0.07, a drop of 90%. There was not a single clear crash, no black swan, no regulatory raids—just silently bleeding for three whole years.
🚨 Even more ironically, other meme coins were still rallying at the same time, while DOGE remained almost unmoved and showed no improvement. The project itself hasn't changed anything—still the same dog, still unlimited supply. No deflationary mechanisms, no technological upgrades, no narrative restructuring.
💀 This kind of "hidden fall" is the most dangerous. Without panic stampede, there is no clear signal of bottom-fishing and rebound. Holders endure continuous wear and tear in silence, liquidity slowly dries up, and emotions are worn down by time. Once the market turns bearish, these coins often fall the hardest and rebound the slowest.
📉 Memory is harsh: the market does not reward unchanging assets. DOGE's fundamentals have never changed, but the market's pricing of its enthusiasm has shifted. From 0.74 to 0.07, it wasn't a single crash, but a long liquidation.The biggest event in the A-share market today was Changxin Technology, which opened up over 500%, with its market value peaking at 3.4 trillion yuan. After pulling back, it hovered around 2.6 trillion yuan, directly topping the A-share market. Meanwhile, SK Hynix surged and then turned down. Many people say China Memory has defeated South Korea, but Sister Mu tells you, this drama isn't that simple. $BTC $ETH It's not about who beats whom, it's two pricing systems colliding. The A-share market is adding a scarcity premium to domestic substitution. Changxin is the world's fourth largest DRAM manufacturer with a 7.67% market share. Net profit in the first half of the year was 50 to 57 billion, with an annualized PE ratio of about 30 times. SKHYNIX's DRAM share was 34.48%, with a PE ratio of only about 16 times. Its market value was once overtaken by Changxin. A plant with a 4-5% share had its market value soaring to twice the size of SKHYNIX. This can't be explained by fundamentals; it's A-share liquidity squeezing premiums. The blood-draining theory is just surface. Funds chasing the leader suppressed SKHYNIX, but the pattern of a giant IPO opening high and then falling back on the first day is a fixed pattern. Don't use the opening price as a valuation anchor. The real signal lies beneath the surface—$SKHYNIX Changxin's revenue in the first half of the year was 110 to 120 billion, net profit 50 to 57 billion. This is the first time a domestic DRAM leader has gone public with real profits. The story of China's self-sufficiency in storage is the first time there is a tradable target. Previously, overseas capital couldn't get in, but now with channels, the supply landscape is changing. This is a long-term variable, not a day-trip excitement. Crypto players have already priced in advance. Hyperliquid is on CX$UB When the previous high was 0.24, circulating was 2.5 billion; now it's 4 billion, and in a few days, another 320 million will be unlocked. Yesterday, there was no large sell-off, but the price surged. Short-term momentum is insufficient, so it's adjusting.BTC led the gains, but liquidity was highly concentrated, and the market was not fully recovering
In the current upward trend, is capital really spreading?
The original post clearly pointed out that although the market was generally bullish today, the price rise was not accompanied by widespread capital inflows. Key facts include: BTC is currently the asset with the strongest liquidity absorption, ETH enjoys institutional preference, SOL remains a high-beta Layer 1 representative, while AI narrative coins like DATA, WLD, as well as HYPE, DOGE, and ZEC, map risk appetite, retail sentiment, and specific themes respectively. Meanwhile, a large number of tokens such as BEAT, EDGE, TRUMP, and VIRTUAL lack real buying support, with liquidity still concentrated in a few leading assets.
From a market structure perspective, this is not a rotation of funds to counterfeit assets, but rather a simultaneous convergence of safe-haven and speculative funds toward higher certainty. The cooling of Open Interest (open interest) accompanied by healthy trading volumes indicates that after derivatives leverage was cleared, spot traders did not retreat but became more selective. Capital behavior can be clearly divided into three categories: passive allocation and hedging needs for BTC/ETH, Beta speculation on mainstream L1s like SOL, and narrative-driven AI and meme themes. Most altcoins still lack real demand and rely heavily on short-term sentiment impulses.
In terms of pricing, BTC serves as a liquidity anchor. If its continued accumulation fails to drive ETH and SOL to follow suit, its rebound potential will be limited; If ETH and SOL take over, it may trigger a phased recovery for small-cap altcoins. The biased bullish path is: BTC stabilizes above key support, ETH and SOL begin to attract passive funds, and some leading altcoins (such as HYPE and WLD) gain liquidity spillover. The bearish risk lies in the fact that funds remain extremely concentrated, ETH/SOL fails to break out effectively, expanding the altcoin liquidity trap, and the current gains are maintained by only a few coins. If BTC pulls back, the overall market will face an even greater pullback.
Conclusion: The current market is pricing in a concentration of funds in certainty assets, rather than a full recovery. A valid rally requires at least seeing active buying spread between ETH and SOL; otherwise, one should watch for altcoins rather than chase the rally. Failure Condition: BTC breaks below short-term key support, or ETH shows signs of institutional reduction.
Risk warning: The above analysis is based on publicly available data and market structure, and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, so please assess risks yourself.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $DOGE $ZEC #加密市场 #资金流向I think a large part of the previous downtrend cycle of South Korea's SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung was influenced by the anticipation of Changxin's IPO:
Changxin IPO → Fundraising of tens of billions → Capacity expansion
Acceleration of domestic substitution in China
Increase in DRAM supply
Future price decline
Decline in profitability of Korean manufacturers
Now that Changxin has successfully gone public and its market value has surpassed the 3 trillion mark, personally, I feel this trend might follow the same path as SpaceX: first going up, then hitting a high to shake out the shorts or attract retail investors from outside to chase the high, and then crashing down wildly. A drop is inevitable.
As for SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk,
the anticipation of Changxin's IPO in China has already materialized, so their potential downside expectation is not high, making a rebound inevitable.
Additionally, from a technical perspective, the downtrend in major memory stocks has shown clear signs of weakening. So, making a rebound move now is quite reasonable.
The above is just a personal opinion, only to record my own investment logic, and does not constitute any investment advice.
$SKHYNIX $MU $SNDK Friends, the Federal Reserve announced its rate decision early Thursday morning, and this time was truly different—economists and traders rarely "fought." Currently, the federal funds rate is in the range of 3.50%–3.75%. All 104 economists surveyed by Reuters expect rates to remain unchanged in July. CME data shows a 63.7% probability of holding rates unchanged and a 36.3% chance of a rate hike. The reason for the 'hold still' camp is solid: June CPI fell to 3.5% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in four years, and employment is also weakening—nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June. Institutions such as Banque des Internationales, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, and Goldman Sachs are expected to hold steady for the year. But calls for an "unexpected rate hike" are also growing louder. Brent crude broke through $100 per barrel, the Trump administration imposed new tariffs on 60 countries, and after taking office, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh abandoned forward-looking guidance and maintained a "zero tolerance" policy for high inflation. Dutta, Chief Economist of Renaissance macroeconomics, bluntly stated: "Rather than being cornered in September, it's better to act now." Internal divisions are also intensifying—hawkish officials like Dallas Fed President Logan may vote against it, while dovish figures like Williams from the New York Fed tend to wait. The biggest highlight of this meeting was not "whether to add or not," but how Walsh chose between a rebound in inflation and cooling data. No matter the outcome, the market is highly likely to experience intense volatility—being prepared for both options is more important than guessing the right direction! #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Once the cannons roared, gold was in vain, and the crypto market was boiling with blood. Yesterday, two missiles hit a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to skyrocket. Just two days ago, everyone was mocking crude oil for wiping out the war premium, but overnight, the ghost story of geopolitical conflict has returned. I stared at the market, $BTC didn't hesitate, following my risk-averse mood all the way north. This rally was so fierce that it didn't look like a gradual accumulation, but more like some big capital rushing in amid panic over oil prices. Speaking out loud, the mood switched faster than flipping a book; the bears were probably stunned in front of the screen. The fragile ceasefire agreement between the King of Understanding and Iran now seems like just a piece of paper. Every pulse in oil prices is pouring fuel on the costs of the global supply chain. What does this mean? The specter of inflation is far from gone. Those who bet on a certain institution's rate cut in the second half of the year should be starting to feel anxious now. But the crypto market's reaction now is strange: instead of crying with US stocks, it laughs with safe-haven assets. I feel this is a new narrative beginning to sprout. In an era where fiat credit is repeatedly hit by geopolitical risks, $BTC is turning into a chaotic hedging tool. War is unpredictable, inflation is unpredictable, and that ceasefire agreement is even more unpredictable. So don't rush to call for a bullish rebound, and don't blindly chase high prices just because you see a big bullish candle. Stay steady for now and see how well the Asian session is taking hold. If tonight's US stock market opens can absorb this negative geopolitical news, then this wave of sentiment may truly be sealed. Geopolitical #美股全线走高 led the #谷歌特斯拉Q2财报今夜见分晓 #伦理条款 with crypto stocks leading the gainsThe Strait of Hormuz opens more often than my home window 😂. The Strait of Hormuz controls nearly one-third of the world's maritime oil shipments. Heightened tensions will push up oil prices, trigger global double inflation, force Europe and the US to maintain high interest rates, drag down economic growth, and put pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies; $CL As the situation eases, oil prices fall, rate cut expectations rebound, and risk assets are recovering. However, a short-term ceasefire cannot eliminate contradictions, and geopolitical fluctuations will continue to bring volatility and uncertainty to the global economy. Core Event: Middle East conflict cools in a phase, Strait navigation brings a turning point. The US and Iran announced a temporary halt to military strikes. Iran and Oman have made progress in consultations on shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. All parties plan to establish a navigation management mechanism to ensure smooth passage for commercial ships, and months of geopolitical standoff have entered a brief pause. Previously, concerns over Strait shipping disruptions had driven up crude oil prices, and rising inflation forced the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, suppressing the crypto market for a long time; Now, the fear of war has quickly dissipated, becoming the core fuse for this crypto rebound. Complete Upward Transmission Logic 1. Geopolitical easing → oil prices drop sharply. The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global maritime oil supply. After the lockdown risk was lifted, oil prices plunged, energy-driven inflationary pressures eased significantly, and the market lowered expectations for rising US Treasury yields, causing the negative side of tightening liquidity to marginally fade. 2. Risk appetite is warming up, capital flows back into risky assets. Safe-haven funds are withdrawing from the US dollar and gold, and are flowing back into the stock market and cryptocurrencies; Previously, a large number of short positions were shorted, and concentrated stop-loss closing positions