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Robinhood Chain DEX daily trading volume historically surpasses 3 billion USD for the first time
Among them, Uniswap v2 + v3 + v4 account for over 98%
Driven by Robinhood crypto stocks and Meme market trends, UNI daily burn historically exceeds 1 million USD for the first time, with Robinhood Chain contributing over 850,000 USD
Corresponding coin-denominated daily burn is 170,000 UNI, setting the second highest historical level, with Robinhood Chain burning 136,000 UNI#The world's largest sovereign wealth fund plans to reduce $80 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings
The world's largest sovereign wealth fund, the Norwegian Sovereign Fund, is reportedly planning a major portfolio adjustment, intending to significantly reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings, with an estimated reduction close to $80 billion, reallocating funds to corporate bonds and other fixed income categories.
My personal view: Compared to the actual amount sold, the signal significance of this event far outweighs the short-term impact.
This indicates that large sovereign institutions are beginning to reassess the "risk-free asset" status of U.S. Treasuries, further confirming the global trend of reserve diversification, which is positive for long-term narratives of credit-risk-resistant assets like gold and Bitcoin.
However, do not take this as a blind buy signal.
The plan is still a proposal and has not been implemented yet, so it will not immediately cause a sell-off. If U.S. Treasuries face sustained selling and long-term yields rise, it could suppress risk assets and bring short-term volatility pressure to $BTC and $ETH.
Currently, with the non-farm payrolls approaching, the macroeconomic logic is complex. Changes in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar are slow variables; short-term market trends are still dominated by employment data and Federal Reserve expectations. This news should only be used as supplementary reference and not directly for trading decisions.
In practice, continue to hold core spot assets as a base position; strictly control leverage in contracts, focus on the linkage between U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, and avoid trading driven by a single news event. I was expecting the stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs report to hit risk assets hard, but BTC barely flinched. After the initial volatility, $BTC quickly recovered and pushed back toward the $79,000 area. Meanwhile, $ETH is holding above $2,400, $ZEC remains one of the strongest movers, and $USELESS continues to show aggressive momentum. Normally, hotter employment data should reduce expectations for near-term Fed easing and create pressure on crypto. But the market is sending a different messageNo US stocks, no ETF flows, institutional absence on the weekend: only crypto-native funds remain. Volatility converges, but major stop orders spike (9/4 low $78,628)
9/6 HYPE unlocks about 9.92 million tokens (about $800 million)
The real test over the weekend is whether the $78,628 low from 9/4 holds. Holding means a pullback confirmation; breaking it points to $77,307 (10-day low).
Nonfarm payrolls caused BTC and ETH to drop 3% and shake out, which has been digested
(Deviation: much better than expected +162K vs expected +55K = 2.9 times higher and exceeding the upper prediction range (+121K)
Data within expectations usually means volatility <1%. The more it exceeds expectations, the harsher the drop)
If a 25bp rate hike is already priced in with over 60% probability, and the dot plot shows "one hike then pause" — bad news is fully priced, BTC rebounds
August CPI must wait until 9/11, 20:30 to see.
Market consensus: core month-over-month +0.2%, core year-over-year 2.4%, overall year-over-year 3.5%. Deutsche Bank is more specific: overall +0.38%, core +0.21%. (This 9/11 figure will decide the 9/16 FOMC)
How much will oil prices, housing, commodities, and prices deviate from expectations?
The following model is not investment advice (Wall Street capital future trends)
$BTC $ETH Last night's US non-farm payroll data looks quite intimidating at first glance, with 162,000 new jobs added, while the market had previously expected only about 56,000, and the unemployment rate remained basically unchanged at 4.1%; But, the year-on-year wage growth dropped from 3.2% in July to 3.1%, and the number of long-term unemployed continues to rise. So this data reveals that employment hasn't collapsed, but inflation risks have not disappeared, which is why the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in September again, and $BTC immediately fell below $80,000.
Ajian believes that more worth studying than the better-than-expected numbers themselves is that under these circumstances, the US stock market did not experience a particularly sharp crash, and the semiconductor sector like $SNDK performed surprisingly well. It seems prices have already priced in some of the bad news in advance, and capital is still willing to give AI and semiconductors high valuations. It remains to be seen whether high interest rates can still accommodate such high AI valuations.
What really matters next is not to keep debating whether the non-farm data is bullish or bearish, but just to focus on these three things: employment, inflation, and oil prices.
If employment is strong and inflation is weak, the market may reprice a soft landing;
If employment is strong and inflation is also strong, the Fed faces the greatest pressure;
If employment suddenly weakens and inflation also declines, rate cut trades may return;
If employment is weak but inflation rises due to energy prices, that is the most troublesome scenario, because then the Fed faces a worsening economy but prices are not cooperating.
A single data point can only tell you what happened at the moment; only by looking at it together with other variables can you truly see the market direction.Signals from $BTC and $ETH holdings
The net inflow of OI is interesting: On 9/4, 835 million U was poured in a single day, marking the largest single-day inflow in 7 days — these people entered at the $81,000 high. As a result, on 9/5, 565 million U ran out, a typical "buying high, getting trapped, cutting losses and running" scenario. However, looking at the cumulative data, the 7-day net inflow is +171 million U, indicating an overall net long position.
Looking at the funding rate, the rate dropping to 0.001% indicates the market is not overheated; the leveraged longs chasing highs have exited, leaving mainly spot and low-leverage funds. In this environment, the probability of a rebound is greater than a continued drop.
The $BTC spot ETF is solid, with a cumulative net inflow of 1.92 billion USD from August 20 to September 2, and over 3 billion USD poured in over the past 30 days. The smart money hasn't fled; those leaving are all panic sellers among retail investors. Last night’s NFP crushed expectations, pushing back hopes for a September Fed pause. $BTC briefly broke $82K before falling toward $80K. The market is now caught between strong ETF flows and rising rate expectations from jobs data, oil, and Treasury yields. NFP: 162K jobs vs. 56K expected, while unemployment stayed at 4.1%. September rate-hike odds climbed near 58%. The move was straightforward: Dovish Waller → yields fall → $BTC breaks $80K → shorts squeeze → strong NFP → rate odds rise → $BTIn August, $BTC experienced a strong bullish rally, with a maximum monthly increase of over 24%, marking the best monthly performance since 2017. The price once surged to a three-month high near $81,455.
At the beginning of September, influenced by Federal Reserve officials' remarks, the market saw short-term profit-taking. Approximately $138 million worth of long Bitcoin leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours, causing the price to quickly fall back to around $77,000.
On September 4, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above the $81,000 mark, with a single-day increase of about 4%, mainly supported by the Federal Reserve's dovish signals and a 0.7% weakening of the US dollar index.
🔍 Current core market characteristics
Digital gold attribute strengthened: The 90-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold climbed to a nearly six-year peak, and the 30-day correlation coefficient reached a yearly high of 0.8. Meanwhile, the correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index dropped to a one-year low, gradually detaching from the pricing logic of highly volatile tech growth stocks. The asset's role as a hedge against dollar depreciation continues to stand out.
Pricing power shifting to institutions: The market is transitioning from the traditional four-year halving cycle to a Wall Street-led 6-8 year long-cycle paradigm. Institutions have accumulated over 2.7 million Bitcoins through spot ETFs and other channels, a scale more than 16 times the annual miner production. The marginal impact of new miner supply on the market has significantly weakened.
Capital support remains: The US Bitcoin spot ETF previously set a record of nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, with cumulative inflows exceeding $3 billion. The continuous return of institutional funds is the core support force for the current market. Cobie proposed the "K-shaped crypto": the industry has unprecedented success, but the assets accessible to ordinary people have not reflected this. The upper half indeed has support, with stablecoin circulation around 311.5 billion, and on-chain settlements and prediction markets still expanding; what is overlooked is the cause of the lower half, where growth mostly settles into private equity and fees, rather than token value capture. $BTC 79542, 24h -1.9%, total market cap 2.69 trillion, BTC dominance 59.3%, funds have not spilled over, just become more concentrated. The risk of the K-shaped narrative lies in indefinitely defending tokens underperforming: if usage does not convert to cash flow for token holders within three years, it is not a mismatch but that these tokens simply do not participate in distribution. I lean toward the latter, expecting altcoins to continue weakening relative to BTC in the next quarter. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. The late-session rally is quite intriguing; over 2 billion flowed northbound in the last half hour, forcibly pulling the market from the red into the green.
But looking closely at the intraday chart, the rally is on shrinking volume, more like short covering rather than genuine buying with real money.
In sectors, AI is reviving again, but with a new batch of leaders driving the gains; the old leaders clearly can’t keep up, and funds are playing a high-low rotation.
$DOGE is strangely restless today; a few big influencers on Twitter are making signals again—purely emotional speculation without fundamental support.
On the macro side, there are Fed officials speaking tonight, and the market is waiting for cues, so no one dared to bet heavily during the day.
My move today was to reduce some positions on rallies; I don’t plan to follow this sneak attack at the close.
If it opens high tomorrow,
there’s a high chance it will fall again, so don’t let a single bullish candle change your conviction.
Right now, patience is more precious than gold; wait for a real directional breakout before striking hard.The most striking aspect of Broadcom's earnings report is that it has moved AI from a "story" to "revenue collection."
Both revenue and cash flow are solid, AI semiconductor income continues to explode, and Snowflake has also raised its guidance. Looking at this together, it's not just a highlight for one company, but a sign that enterprise AI budgets are truly starting to pour into infrastructure, data platforms, private clouds, and custom chips. In the past two years, the market only asked "who has the model," but now it’s asking "who can run the model cheaper, more stably, and more controllably."
But I don't think this means AI stocks can be bought blindly. The closer to the realization phase, the more selective the market becomes: Are orders real orders, or just stockpiling in advance? Is growth sustainable, or propped up by concentrated customers? The next phase of the AI market won't reward everyone who talks about AI, only those who can turn the bill into profit.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The squeeze that fueled the spike
The run $BTC through $80k–$82k was amplified by short covering. Reports put short liquidations in a wide range of roughly $250 million to $510 million, with total crypto liquidations much larger.
Open interest also dropped, which looks more like deleveraging than a clean new-long
#AugPayrollsBeat
#BTCGoldRatioHigh
#OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $ZEC has surged significantly in the past two days, driving the entire privacy coin sector to rally sharply. Generally speaking, a sharp rise in the privacy coin sector indicates that the upward trend is nearing its end. In other words, this round of rebound is probably almost over. At times like this, short selling can be considered, but it should not be done blindly. Personally, I think it’s best to avoid shorting the leading coins at this stage, as the leaders tend to be stronger. Instead, consider shorting some coins that are just riding the hype. For example, today’s focus — $DASH. —————————————————— Let’s take a look at the $DASH candlestick chart. We can see that its last super surge was at the end of May, and at the beginning of June, the market experienced a major correction. During the correction, $DASH basically gave back all its gains. This time, it’s probably no different. —————————————————— Now let’s look at its contract data. We can see that its long-short ratio suddenly rose last night, but the open interest didn’t change much. This indicates that some shorts turned into longs last night, and today’s price increase is likely driven by this group of funds pushing the price up. Currently, its long-short ratio has dropped, while the open interest has risen. This shows that a batch of shorts has entered the market, and the shorting pressure has outweighed the buying pressure. At this point, $DASH may be about to top out. It’s important to note that "about to top out" doesn’t mean it won’t rise anymore, just like being almost full doesn’t mean you won’t eat any more After yesterday’s NFP release, crypto and gold initially dropped sharply, while tech stocks moved higher.
The strong jobs data raised concerns about overheating and persistent inflation, but the unusually large beat has also made the market question the data.
That could explain why gold and crypto quickly stabilized.
If doubts around the data continue, crypto could see a V-shaped recovery.
For now, $BTC and $ETH remain focused on inflation data and Fed policy.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Last night's non-farm payroll data was indeed strong, with an expectation of 55,000 but an actual 162,000, directly tripling the forecast. The probability of a rate hike jumped from 52% upwards, BTC dropped from 81,000 to 78,000, and Ethereum fell 3% in 15 minutes. OKB hit a low of 106.43, now at 109, holding steady. Honestly, BTC has already absorbed most of the shock, so by the time it affects it, the impact is minimal. Holding steady under macro shocks indicates that selling pressure at this level isn't heavy. In the short term, it will still grind between 106 and 111, with no clear direction yet. Just hold for now.
The data itself: US August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 (previous value revised from -23,000 to +21,000), unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month. This is the highest monthly increase since March 2026.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC $ZEC $OKB Just after calling a bull market, is the Federal Reserve ready to raise interest rates again? 😅
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
People holding $BTC are really having a hard time now. The market was finally showing some signs of improvement, but with strong US employment, the market is starting to worry about interest rates going up again.
After the non-farm payrolls release on September 4th, the odds of a rate hike in September rose to nearly 60%. This change has more impact than a tough statement from an official because it means capital is recalculating: if US dollar interest rates are still going to rise, is it really worth chasing risk assets now?
But don’t take it to mean the rate hike is set in stone. Waller recently said quite specifically: if inflation continues to cool down, he leans toward maintaining rates; if inflation is too hot, then he would consider a hike. The Fed’s internal opinions are not fully aligned yet.
This is the trouble for $BTC. Employment data has already pushed back expectations of "easing soon," and if inflation doesn’t cooperate, the part of the price that rose on policy expectations is likely to be sold off again.
Sigh, trading crypto means having to watch every day whether Americans have found jobs or not. When the next inflation data is released, if $BTC can’t even be shaken down by bad news, that would be a reason to look at it more favorably.$KO Coca-Cola KO is currently fluctuating around $87-88, repeatedly testing this range. Besides potential political tailwinds, the fundamental solid logic remains intact: the company has increased dividends for 64 consecutive years, is approaching ex-dividend date, continues stock buybacks, raised full-year guidance in Q2, and global demand is steady. The recent pullback is mainly due to rising US Treasury yields suppressing high dividend valuations, not due to operational issues.
However, presidential remarks are hard to counter the macroeconomic long cycle; Federal Reserve policy is still driven by inflation and employment data. The $90 level is a strong resistance above, difficult to hold above in the short term, while $84 is the core support level. The focus next is on the August CPI inflation data on September 11. If inflation remains high and rate hike expectations continue to ferment, KO will remain under pressure; only if inflation cools significantly and US Treasury yields fall, with multiple positive factors converging, will there be a chance to break through the $90 level. At this stage, it is not advisable to blindly bottom-fish; priority should be given to observing key data and support level changes. Overnight liquidation of 200 million USD, stop treating the non-farm payroll as "ordinary data"
Don't tell me you weren't hurt by this wave.
Before the non-farm payroll, $BTC was at 81,000, $ETH at 2,530, and the whole network was peaceful. Waller's few dovish remarks were repeatedly chewed over, as if the rate hike cycle was already over. So what happened? 162,000 new jobs hit hard, unemployment stubbornly stuck at 4.1%, and the market's "rate cut dream" shattered on the spot.
Then? BTC plunged below 80,000, ETH waterfall-fell, and high-beta assets like $SOL were directly pressed to the floor and rubbed. 200 million in liquidations, all leveraged longs.
What does this story tell us?
First, don't go against the Federal Reserve. You bet on rate cuts, it talks data. Strong employment is strong, your expectations can't beat the black-and-white numbers. When yields rise, risk assets must bow, this is ironclad, not some "bad news is fully priced in" ghost story.
Second, "not running away" is no coincidence. BTC, ETH, SOL all stayed, indicating this is not a problem unique to any single asset, but the entire risk asset level is being compressed. When the water recedes, who is swimming naked is obvious.
But today I won't call a bear market, just remind you of the harshest fact:
The 80,000 level, if not reclaimed, is a grave. If reclaimed, it's a deep squat; if not, it's a breakdown. Don't talk to me about faith, faith is worthless in the face of liquidation. Support turns into resistance, the next stop is to find deeper liquidity, no one knows where the bottom is, but it's definitely not a bit below your cost price.
Worse, the non-farm payroll is just the opening act. It disrupts expectations, clears leverage, and drives the undecided off the bus. Then? CPI is the one that decides whether it's a "false alarm" or "the nightmare is just beginning."
Don't rush to bottom-fish now, nor rush to call the bull dead.
Ask yourself first: if 80,000 becomes a ceiling tomorrow, can your position hold?
If not, don't leave your fate to the market's judgment. If you understand, act; if not, wait.
Wait for the CPI shot to fire, then talk.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Yesterday, everyone was still calling for a bull return, but by noon today, when the market opened again, $BTC had dropped back to the 70s. Sometimes the crypto world is just this frustrating—when prices rise, you fear you missed the opportunity, but once you really get in, it immediately gives you a big stick, teaching both the long and short sellers a lesson. Bitcoin is around $79,598, down 1.64% in the past 24 hours. During this period, it reached a high of $81,405 and hit a low of $78,650. Last night's rapid drop wasn't a sudden on-chain crash; the timing basically matched the US August nonfarm payroll data. New jobs were 162,000, and the unemployment rate was still 4.1%. To put it simply, employment wasn't as weak as the market had feared, so the Fed naturally wasn't in a hurry to relax. After surging past $80,000, the accumulated profits, along with those aggressively opened leveraged long positions, took advantage of this news to drive the market out. Within four hours, the price surged from around $81,222 all the way to $78,650. However, just looking at this drop alone means the market is over, which I think is a bit urgent. On September 3rd, the net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $731 million, the largest single-day inflow since January. The money really came in, but this was before the non-farm payroll release, so it couldn't fully absorb last night's macro shock. Right now, the market is basically a battle of arms on both sides: on one side is real buying from ETFs, on the other is strong employment supply$BTC $ETH $SOL
Today's non-farm payroll data has a significant impact on the crypto space and is a typical macro "negative" factor.
Core data (negative): August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the expected 56,000; the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, showing no deterioration. This directly led the market to bet that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September surged to nearly 60%.
· Immediate market reaction: Bitcoin plunged from above $81,000 within 32 minutes after the data release, briefly falling below $78,600, and is currently struggling around $79,000. Ethereum also fell below $2,500.
· A "hidden" easing signal: The year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings dropped to 3.1% (previously 3.2%), the lowest since June 2021. This leaves room for inflation to cool down, so whether there will actually be a rate hike ultimately depends on next week's CPI data.
· Increasing divergence in trends: Now the correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks has turned negative, indicating that the crypto market is mainly influenced by its own capital and leverage. Most altcoins have broadly declined, with only XRP showing some resistance around $1.45 due to its own positive factors.
💡 About "which coins to play"
Under the current macro headwinds of "high interest rates and a strong dollar," overall operation is quite challenging. If you really want to participate, you can consider this approach:
· Major market leader: Bitcoin (BTC). Mainly supported by ETFs and institutional funds, it falls along with the market but is relatively resilient, making it the first choice for hedging.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% $KO Nonfarm payrolls exploded, US stocks fell! Rising rate hike expectations impact Coca-Cola KO
August nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, with 162,000 new jobs added, significantly higher than market expectations. US stocks collectively closed lower, and September rate hike expectations quickly intensified. Trump publicly called on the Federal Reserve to cut rates immediately, bluntly stating the Fed must "get smart" and hopes to lower rates to stimulate the economy. But the market only looks at data; strong employment pushes up US Treasury yields, and high-dividend sectors come under direct pressure.
Coca-Cola KO is currently fluctuating around $87-88, repeatedly testing the bottom. The logic is very clear: KO is a typical high-dividend defensive stock. After US Treasury yields rise, the yield on risk-free bonds increases, weakening the attractiveness of Coca-Cola's dividends, leading institutional funds to choose to cash out and exit. The company's fundamentals have not deteriorated; earnings reports and dividends remain stable. The problem lies in macro interest rates, not company operations.
Trump himself loves Coca-Cola, but this is just an online topic with almost no real impact on the stock price. Political rhetoric cannot influence Federal Reserve decisions; market pricing still depends on employment and inflation data.
There is strong resistance at $90 above, making it difficult to stabilize above this level in the short term. $84 is the core defensive support; if it breaks down with volume, the bottoming cycle will be further extended. Next, focus on the August CPI inflation data on September 11. If inflation remains high and rate hike expectations continue to ferment, KO will remain under pressure; only if inflation cools significantly and US Treasury yields fall will funds flow back into the consumer sector, giving KO a chance to challenge the $90 level. At this stage, it is not advisable to blindly bottom-fish; priority should be given to observing key data and support level changes.BTC previously broke through the $81,000–$82,000 range, then pulled back due to changes in U.S. employment data and interest rate expectations. Currently, the market has re-entered a high-level consolidation phase. Recently, alongside BTC's rise, high Beta assets like ZEC and HYPE have also shown significant breakthroughs. However, the key point now is no longer "who rises the most," but after BTC's pullback, which altcoins can still maintain trading volume, relative strength, and capital support. The total market capitalization is currently about $2.77 trillion, with BTC dominance around 57.6%, indicating that capital remains highly concentrated in BTC, and a true comprehensive altcoin season has yet to appear. Today, we continue to use: "Continuous Tracking Pool + Daily New Anomalies" divided into: 🟢 Bullish 🟡 Watchful 🔴 Bearish Today's core observation path: HYPE/ZEC high Beta → SOL mainstream diffusion → AAVE/LINK/UNI second-tier capital → ONDO/PENDLE/ENA sector rotation → VIRTUAL/WLD/KAITO event capital. — 1. Activation Radar | Today we do not chase the top gainers, focusing instead on altcoins with "volume leading price" BTC has already pulled back from highs, so today's activation radar criteria are even stricter. What really deserves attention is: When BTC falls, it does not fall; when BTC moves sideways, it expands volume; when BTC rebounds, it breaks through. If these three conditions gradually appear, it indicates new capital is starting to enter. 82K short positions entered, 2% reconnaissance position, stop loss at 82300, targets at 76000/72000/68000
Brothers, here’s a simple explanation of the logic:
1. Why short? 82282 was tested three times but didn’t break through, 80600 weekly resistance was tested three times and fell back each time, daily RSI showed bearish divergence 4 times, making long positions here low in cost-effectiveness. Above 82K is all hedging positions, BTC reserves hit a new high of 687,000 this year, who’s going to push it up?
2. The spike on 9.4 is a bull trap: open interest doubled sharply, but volume shrank compared to 9.3, and funding rate was only slightly positive, indicating it’s not retail chasing longs but institutions placing sell orders at 82K + opening short hedges. This is an arbitrage iron top, not a pump.
3. Reconnaissance position 2%: testing the top from the left side, admitting it’s against the trend, small loss if wrong, big gain if right. Stop loss fixed at 82300, if triggered, exit immediately without chasing higher.
4. Targets: T1 76000 (close 30%, move stop to breakeven), T2 72000 (close another 40%), T3 68000 (close all). Risk-reward ratio 1:10, worth the bet.
In short: don’t look long until volume confirms a stable break above 82800, low volume spikes are all bull traps. Only sell above 82K, no buying.
---
Not a trade signal, just sharing logic, don’t blame me if you lose, if you profit it’s because you’re awesome. 🧐📊 $XAU Contract Liquidation Express (September 5)
The direction changed hands twice, with bears initially crushing the market extremely, followed by a V-shaped reversal by bulls, closing steadily at 2.19x — after the V-shaped reversal, a moderate strengthening occurred. The extremely low concentration indicates that liquidations were almost entirely released at the end of the session, with $6.25 million in liquidations setting a new stage high.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $110.92 $0 $110.92
4 hours $5,321.51 $687.97 $4,633.54
12 hours $112,000 $69,700 $42,300
24 hours $6,257,600 $4,294,200 $1,963,500
In 1 hour, bears crushed extremely with zero long liquidations; in 4 hours, bears violently crushed at 6.73x, volume soaring to $5,321.51; in 12 hours, direction reversed — bulls moderately overtook at 1.65x, volume soaring to 112,000; in 24 hours, bulls expanded to close at 2.19x, liquidations of 4,294,200 vs. bears 1,963,500, totaling 6,257,600. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 1.79% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely low concentration — liquidations were almost entirely released at the end of the session. Multiplier trajectory: extreme bear → bear 6.73x → bull 1.65x → bull 2.19x, showing a V-shaped reversal followed by moderate strengthening. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; the direction has turned bullish but with moderate strength, avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 5
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the nonfarm payrolls far exceeding expectations reignites rate hike bets, Bitcoin is under short-term pressure but the "digital gold" narrative remains intact, and OKX Prophet has included the FOMC decision in its prediction pool.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls at 162,000 Far Exceed Expectations: September Rate Hike Probability Returns to 60%
On September 4, August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the expected 55,000; July was revised from -23,000 to +21,000, June from 20,000 to 31,000, totaling an upward revision of 55,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and the year-over-year wage growth slowed to 3.6%, the slowest since July 2024. CME shows the September rate hike probability rising from 50/50 to about 60%, the dollar surged, and US Treasury yields spiked. Nonfarm payrolls are just the "appetizer" — the CPI on September 11 is the core variable determining the September rate hike.
₿ Bitcoin Under Short-Term Pressure: Gold Ratio Remains High at 18.17
After nonfarm payrolls, Bitcoin fell from above 81,000 to the 78,000-79,000 range. As of September 4, Bitcoin-to-gold ratio rose to 18.17, the highest since January. The revaluation of fiat credit after US debt surpassed $40 trillion is driving investors to buy both Bitcoin and gold to hedge government debt inflation risk. The "digital gold" narrative remains intact.
🔮 OKX Prophet Launches FOMC Rate Prediction
OKX "Prophet" Season 2 has included the September FOMC rate decision prediction in its pool. Users can use free XP to judge whether the Fed will hike rates and share a $600,000 prize pool.
💎 Summary
August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 far exceeded expectations, pushing September rate hike probability back to 60%, but next week's CPI is the final verdict; Bitcoin is under short-term pressure, falling below 80,000, but the gold ratio remains high at 18.17, keeping the "digital gold" narrative intact; OKX Prophet has included FOMC predictions in the $600,000 prize pool, expanding the prediction market track. XAU liquidation data shows a "V-shaped reversal followed by moderate strengthening" structure — bears cleared the market extremely at the open then gradually weakened, bulls reversed at 12 hours and stabilized at 2.19x at close, direction switched from bear to bull but with moderate strength. The extremely low 1.79% concentration indicates a clear volume release at the end of the session; large funds completed directional turnover before CPI release but no strong consensus formed yet. When employment data, asset pricing, and liquidation data converge in the same week — the market is waiting for next week's CPI final answer. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $SNDK: A big bullish candlestick breaks through 1700
Brothers, SNDK is serious this time. On Thursday's close, it surged nearly 12%, closing at $1739, and continued pushing to around $1755 after hours. From the low of 1511 on September 3, it has bounced about 15% in less than two days.
What happened? In the past two weeks, SNDK had been consolidating between 1450-1570. On September 4, this volume-increased bullish candlestick jumped 185 points in one go, with trading volume twice the usual, directly breaking through the 1700 integer level. This move is driven by sector resonance—NAND prices accelerating, AI data center demand exploding, and the entire storage sector rising. The broader market was down that day, but storage stocks surged against the trend, with capital trading on the independent logic of AI storage.
Technical aspect: 1582-1600 is the recently broken area; if the pullback holds here, the structure remains intact; further strong support zones are at 1555 and 1511. The upper target is first 1750-1800, and if broken, look toward the 1900 area.
Fundamentals: The company’s investor day provided guidance for 15%-19% annual revenue growth from 2028 to 2030, with gross margin anchored at 80%. Long-term contracts already signed cover about half of fiscal year 2027 shipments, locking in at least $93.9 billion in revenue base. Analysts’ average target price is $2125, still about 22% upside from current levels.
Trading advice: Wait for a pullback to stabilize between 1620-1650, then take a light long position, stop loss at 1580, target 1740-1800. Don’t chase the high, wait for the pullback
#闪迪涨近12%，NAND涨价放缓，产能却加码 $KO is currently stuck oscillating between the 87-88 range, undergoing a bottoming phase after the positive news has been realized. This is not a direct sharp drop, nor is it a stable reversal.
Why does it repeatedly test the 87-88 range? Here's the underlying reason:
1. Interest rate expectation game is the root cause: After the August non-farm payroll surprise, the market has pushed back rate cuts, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high. Institutions are conflicted: they know Coca-Cola's fundamentals are solid and dividends stable, but with high risk-free yields on US Treasuries, the cost-effectiveness of buying high-dividend stocks decreases. Large funds are reluctant to aggressively increase positions; at the same time, fundamentals haven't collapsed, so there's no reason for large-scale sell-offs. This results in a tug-of-war: selling pressure on rallies and bargain hunting on dips, causing the stock to hover in the 87-88 range.
2. Previous profit-taking has not been fully digested: The prior rally reached around 92, accumulating many profit-taking positions. Whenever the price rebounds near 89-90, some funds choose to take profits and exit, limiting upward momentum.
3. Market style shift, funds flow into tech growth stocks. Capital prioritizes growth stocks benefiting from economic resilience, while defensive consumer stocks are passively allocated, lacking active buying and volume-driven rallies, so the stock can only move sideways and struggles to break above 90.
4. The 87.2-88 range is a short-term technical support zone, with previous trading volume positions providing buying support at this level; however, above 89 and 90 there is a large amount of trapped positions, causing heavy selling pressure with every upward move.The biggest change this week is that the market has started to trade rate hikes again.
Previously, the market was trading rate cut expectations, but then the August non-farm payrolls came out.
August added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 56,000, and the September rate hike expectation has returned to over 60%.
At the same time, the US dollar has strengthened again, the yen has started to come into market focus, and global bond yields are generally rising.
This is more worth paying attention to than watching BTC price fluctuations.
Because when the market shifts from wondering when rate cuts will happen to whether rate hikes will occur, the capital pricing logic changes.
For the crypto market, the most important thing to be wary of is this:
Risk assets fear not the lack of positive news, but the sudden tightening of liquidity expectations.
So next week, focus on three things:
Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields.
If these three variables continue moving in the same direction, the market's risk appetite will be repriced accordingly.
In the current market, don't just focus on which coin is rising the most.
The macro wind has changed, and the logic of many assets will change accordingly. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% $BTC was pushed back from above 81,300 and is now hovering around 79,500, down 2% in 24 hours. $ETH is weaker, stubbornly holding at 2,450, retreating nearly 4% from the high of 2,548.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, and this kind of low-volume gradual decline is the most frustrating; neither bulls nor bears dare to take heavy positions, all waiting for next week.
Here’s my approach: I placed a short order above 80,000 waiting for a rebound to fill, with a stop loss at 81,150, initially targeting 78,000. Until the daily double top pattern is repaired, shorting on rallies is safer than chasing the dip; only if it truly breaks below the 24-hour low of 78,600 will the correction space open up. Currently, the funding rate has turned negative, and market sentiment is leaning bearish.
The recently released non-farm payrolls at 162,000 far exceeded expectations, dousing rate cut hopes, so I’m not siding with the bulls in the short term.
This is purely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. How are you positioned in this move? August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 (expected 56,000)
Directly extinguishing dovish fantasies
$BTC just surged to $82,300 riding $ETF inflows, but the data release instantly pushed it back below $79,000. The market logic is simple and brutal—stronger employment means higher chances of rate hikes (up to 60%), and risk assets suffer. With interest rate expectations reversing, Bitcoin is just a pawn in the macro liquidity game. Key support is at $78,400; if that fails, the cost line at $76,350 is next.
$ETH was no exception, falling below the critical $2,500 level to about $2,454. It plunged 3.12% in the 15 minutes before the nonfarm release, as the market preemptively priced in the "strong employment = bad news" logic. Strengthened rate hike expectations directly drained liquidity from risk assets. As an asset with stronger Beta characteristics, ETH’s volatility was further amplified. Technically, it is still supported by moving averages, but against the macro headwinds, short-term movement fully depends on subsequent guidance from CPI (September 11) and FOMC (September 16).
$ZEC was the standout contrarian performer all day—rising instead of falling despite the nonfarm negative news, even breaking above $1,000 at one point. The direct catalyst was Grayscale launching a dedicated ZEC ETF, combined with about $34 million in short positions being liquidated, creating a textbook short squeeze. However, this is more of an independent narrative; the macro downside from nonfarm data has not disappeared. If the broader market plunges, the risk of a high-level pullback in ZEC cannot be ignored, so chasing the rally requires extreme caution Isn't the recent ETF activity like a silent confession? 💫 While everyone is still debating whether the bull market will end, money has quietly changed its seat. Is this a cover before retreating, or the horn for a new round of attacks? I was a bit overwhelmed looking through the data last night. On August 31, BTC spot ETFs attracted $216.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking $205.9 million. This number itself isn't surprising; what's strange is its timing—right when market sentiment is at its lowest and on-chain gas fees have dropped to the point of drowsiness. Big money often acts when no one is calling for it, as if institutions are lowering their voices. ETH is even more interesting: ETFs have seen net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, and last week added another $87.7 million. Just two months ago, the market was mocking ETH as a "hopeless inflow," but looking back now, those who quietly bought shares at low prices are laughing the quietest. SOL's spot ETF also recorded about $153 million in net inflows last week, marking the strongest weekly performance since listing. Capital flows back to three sectors simultaneously is no longer explained by a single "bottom-fishing" approach. I tend to define this as the end of the "divergence period," rather than simple volatility or distribution. The characteristic of the divergence period is that retail investors repeatedly jump within panic narratives, while institutions express their faith in their own way. ETF capital flows are traces of their voting—not noisy shouts, but quiet certainty in adding positions. Even more interestingly, HYPE started to be frequently visitedThe US August non-farm payroll data released last night poured cold water on the originally strong crypto market. The core impact is not that the data is weak, but that it is too strong, strong enough to make the market reprice the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Against this backdrop, it is understandable that risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are under short-term pressure. 1. Where exactly is the strength in August's non-farm payroll? The US August non-farm payroll added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding market expectations. Previously, the market generally expected about 53,000 to 56,000, and the final announced figure is almost three times the expectation. More notably, the July non-farm payroll data was significantly revised upward. The originally announced July non-farm payroll was -23,000, now revised to +21,000. This indicates that the US labor market is not as weak as previously shown but remains resilient. Simply put: Employment has not noticeably cooled, and the labor market is still running on the strong side. 2. Why does strong data turn out to be bearish for the crypto market? The key here is not employment itself but the Federal Reserve policy expectations. The stronger the non-farm payroll data, the more the market believes the Fed may not cut rates quickly and might even choose to raise rates in September. After the data release, the market's probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose to 58% to 62%. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.80% and the 2-year Treasury yield around 4.40%. This brings two direct effects: First, the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, putting pressure on risk assets. SecondETH 9/5 Midday Quick Read
💰 Price: ≈2,456, 24h −1.9%
📊 High/Low: 2,547 (yesterday) / 2,432 (today)
🎯 Range: 2,432–2,440 support — 2,530–2,550 resistance (as long as 2,550 is not broken, it's a post-nonfarm adjustment)
Last night, US August nonfarm +162K (expected 55K) → September rate hike priced back to 58%
BTC plunged from 81.6K breaking below 80K, ETH simultaneously retraced from 2,520 down to around 2,440, no new buying after short liquidations
• 2,530–2,550 is a hard resistance repeatedly hit since late August, touched 2,547 yesterday but couldn't hold
• Spot ETH ETF net inflow on 9/3 was $141 million (ETHA $72.07 million + FETH $65.11 million), but on 9/2 it just broke a 12-day inflow streak with an outflow of $48.08 million, and a whale transferred 167,800 ETH ≈ $408 million off-exchange in 5 days to hedge part of the buying
On-chain DeFi/NFT activity is flat, Gas fees are low, rebound relies on macro factors + BTC momentum, not endogenous drivers #Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出 #全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债 $ETH $BTC $SOL Recently, another big news story broke in the macro economy: the Norwegian Sovereign Fund plans to reduce about $80 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings, shifting funds away from low-risk Treasuries to more risky assets. Many people don't understand this. To put it plainly: this giant institution feels that U.S. Treasuries are becoming less cost-effective and no longer wants to hold so many risk-free Treasuries, instead freeing up money elsewhere. This matter has two sides: on one hand, it means global institutions' confidence in U.S. Treasuries is loosening, which will benefit digital gold narratives like Bitcoin in the long run; But in the short term, it will push up U.S. Treasury yields and indirectly put pressure on the entire risk asset market. However, it's important to note: this is just a proposal and has not yet been officially implemented, so don't assume it's already been proven by the market. Currently, the entire market is dominated by U.S. Treasuries and institutional rebalancing only as external disturbances; the real fate of the crypto world remains the upcoming CPI inflation data. If CPI data remains high and Fed rate hike expectations continue to surge, even if there are stories of institutions reducing U.S. Treasury holdings, the crypto sector will still face pressure and pull back; If CPI cools down, inflation falls, rate hike expectations cool, and multiple positive factors combine, the market will have a chance for a decent rebound. Simply put: major institutional portfolio adjustments are a long-term logic; CPI is the judge of short-term gains and losses. Next, let's talk about the current real state of the top 30 major coins by market cap: $BTC (Bitcoin): The central market leader, with the long-term "digital gold" story backing it, but in the short term, it is completely driven by CPI and rate hike expectations. U.S. Treasury holdings are a long-term narrative,Last night, the most outrageous thing wasn't the non-farm payrolls, but rather—
the market was scared down by strong employment data, yet memory chips collectively took off!
$SNDK surged directly by 11.9%, hitting $1740;
$MU rose over 6%, reclaiming $1000;
$SKHYNIX also followed with a big jump, and the semiconductor sector strengthened overall.
Why are funds daring to wildly buy memory when interest rate expectations turn hawkish?
The core reason is:
AI is turning "memory" from an ordinary component into a fundamental computing infrastructure.
The DRAM demand of one AI server could be 8-10 times that of a traditional server.
More importantly, supply can't keep up that easily.
Manufacturers are continuously shifting capacity toward HBM, squeezing ordinary DRAM; and new capacity takes a long time from investment to actual mass production.
So what the market is trading now isn't "chip sales growth," but:
AI expansion → memory demand surges → supply tightens → prices rise → manufacturers' profits soar.
This is the craziest aspect of this round of memory stocks.
$SNDK has an additional catalyst:
Starting September 21, it officially enters the S&P 100, and index and passive fund allocation demand will further increase market attention.
$MU is even more exciting.
The company plans to raise HBM capacity to about 100,000 wafers/month by year-end, but demand still clearly outpaces supply.
There is even a hidden variable now:
Over 80% of surveyed members of Micron's Taiwan union support a strike.
If production is truly affected, it could further strengthen the "supply tightness" narrative.
So now when I look at memory, I'm not just watching stock prices.
What really needs monitoring are three things:
Whether HBM orders continue to explode.
Whether DRAM/NAND prices can keep rising.
Whether manufacturers' capacity expansion can keep up with AI demand.
As long as the first two remain strong and the third consistently lags—
this memory rally may be far from over.
But also be cautious:
The crazier the rise, the less you should chase blindly.
The real main uptrend profits from the industry cycle; the final frenzy profits from the bag holders.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #闪迪涨近12%，NAND涨价放缓，产能却加码 Trump wants to reorganize the CFTC.
Currently, out of the five seats at the CFTC, four are vacant, leaving only the chairman working.
People don't realize that it only stipulates that the same party can hold a maximum of 3 seats, but it doesn't mandate filling the Democratic seats.
In other words, Trump can appoint just 2 Republican commissioners and leave the two Democratic seats empty, creating a 3-to-0 Republican dominance.
The crypto community is actually quite looking forward to this.
Democratic commissioners have always favored perpetual contracts and leveraged products, which prolong review cycles and nitpick.
But on the flip side, Senate Democrats use filling these seats as leverage: if you want the CLARITY Act to move forward, you have to place Democrats in.
This is a blatant exchange.
Politicians never truly want to regulate,
but rather to gain discretionary power over the leverage.
Trump’s move to put Democrats into the CFTC framework creates the appearance of bipartisan cooperation on the surface,
but in reality, it locks the crypto market’s classification firmly under the CFTC’s jurisdiction. Once it’s in the commodity pool, the SEC’s deadly securities lawsuits are basically neutralized.
The crypto community’s compliance lifeline has become a new bargaining chip for Washington’s bipartisan distribution of interests.After the non-farm payrolls crushed liquidity expectations, the most interesting thing today is that strong assets are starting to go their separate ways.
$HYPE is no longer following the usual altcoin logic; the core remains Hyperliquid's real trading revenue and buyback loop, combined with the institutional entry after NCIQ inclusion. The higher the position, the less the market listens to stories alone; going forward, it depends on whether business growth can continue to cover high valuations and supply pressure.
$ZEC broke through $1,000, making the privacy sector the strongest sub-sector in this round. ETF funds, spot demand, and short squeeze have exaggerated the speed of the rise. But as derivatives trading and open interest grow simultaneously, it has moved from fundamental revaluation to a fundamental plus leverage phase, so volatility will only increase.
$BTC is still fluctuating around $80,000 after the strong non-farm report, indicating that macro pressure is real but buying has not disappeared. The most important thing now is not to push it up a few hundred dollars over the weekend, but whether CPI can push back rate hike expectations.
$SOL is still holding near $100, with the September 9 trading format upgrade and the end-of-month Alpenglow as fundamental catalysts; $NVDA continues to extend into the AI software ecosystem after acquiring Hugging Face, no longer just selling GPUs; $XAU fell about 1.2% after the strong non-farm report, with high yields temporarily suppressing gold, and the next focus is also on CPI.
#Fed officials say rate hikes are needed, with September probability rising to 58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ NFP dropped a bomb on crypto… while Wall Street basically popped the champagne. 😂📈
Brothers, this divergence is getting hard to ignore.
August payrolls came in way hotter than expected, and crypto immediately felt the pain.
$BTC and $ETH got slammed almost as soon as the data hit.
Then I looked at US stocks and thought:
“Wait… why are they running higher?”
That’s the part that really caught my attention.
Maybe the market isn’t simply saying “strong NFP = everything dumps.”
#DailyOrbit Fundamental Research Report $DOT / Polkadot (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
To put it simply: Polkadot ($DOT) has a comprehensive score of 64/100, rated as narrative outweighs execution. Breaking it down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
First, the project: Polkadot (token $DOT), in the public chain/L1 sector. It focuses on a parachain cross-chain ecosystem. Competitors include ATOM and ETH. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which leads to gas price spikes under high concurrency, TPS limitations, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. The average customer price is $50-500/month, requiring settlement in USDC or fiat. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: the protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, indicating paid usage. The latest version was not found; there were 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
On the user side, MAU and DAU are undisclosed, 24h trading volume is $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active natural users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supplier income is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income is $2.00M, token holders' buyback and burn annualized has no burn mechanism. The 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. On the code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing can be checked on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales can be checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs, technical integration is grade B based on API/SDK evidence, strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
On the token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), annualized burn and buyback with no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Polkadot $3.00B, ATOM undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. FDV: Polkadot $4.20B, ATOM undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. Annual revenue: Polkadot $2.00M, ATOM undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Polkadot undisclosed, ATOM undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. Numbers are based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario with revenue doubling, burn implementation, and enterprise clients joining aligns FDV P/S with top peers. Ultimately: fundamentals are solid (score 64/100). Token value capture is realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap is relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextending expectations; FDV is moderate. Risk warnings: short-term large unlocks causing sell-offs, protocol income long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Key metrics to watch next: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for now, see you next time.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitThe most contradictory scene for ETH right now is ETF funds entering the market while on-chain whales choose to leave.
As of around 08:00 Beijing time on September 5, ETH is priced at approximately $2,454, down about 2.0% in 24 hours; the low was $2,435, the high $2,544, with a trading volume of about $16.34 billion.
The latest complete data shows that on September 3, the total net inflow of US spot ETH ETFs was about $141.4 million. Data for September 4 has not yet been fully updated, so no conclusions can be drawn at this time.
Meanwhile, on-chain monitoring shows an unidentified whale sold all 167,855 ETH within five days, which amounts to about $408 million at the disclosed price. The identity and reason for the sale have not been confirmed, so it cannot be described as an "institutional exit."
The statistical periods for ETF inflows and whale sales differ, so they cannot be directly offset against each other.
However, the price surged to $2,544 before falling back to $2,454, indicating that selling pressure has not yet been fully absorbed.
The real battle of funds is not in these two screenshots but in whether $2,500 can be reclaimed.
If ETH holds $2,435 and rebounds to $2,480–$2,500, it can retest $2,544; if $2,435 fails to hold, then support at $2,400 or even $2,357 should be watched.BTC 9/5 Midday Quick Read
💰 Price: ≈79,600, 24h −1.5%
📊 High/Low: 82,285 (Yesterday) / 78,650 (Today)
🎯 Range: 78,600 Support — 82,000–82,500 Resistance (No break above 82.5K, all adjustments after Nonfarm)
Last night US August Nonfarm +162K (expected 55K), September rate hike pricing 49%→58%
10Y US Treasury yield back to 4.78%, Dollar Index rebounds, risk assets collectively under pressure, BTC plunged from 81.6K breaking below 80K
• 82.3K is the double resistance of the 365-day moving average + call option wall, yesterday's attempt at 82.2K failed to hold
• Spot BTC ETF net inflow totaled $730 million in recent days, but was overshadowed by macro bearishness + spot selling pressure, price-volume divergence
• Futures OI rose to 57 billion (highest since May), shorts have been liquidated once, further rise depends on real buying, not a short squeeze
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC $BTC In this round of BTC rally, there is one data point more worth watching than the price itself.
Short liquidations are clearly amplifying.
Previously, during BTC's rapid surge, the total short liquidations across the network once reached hundreds of millions of dollars, with reports even exceeding $500 million. ZEC shorts alone also saw about $34.5 million liquidated.
At the same time, the Fear & Greed Index has re-entered the greed zone above 70.
This raises a question.
Is the current rally driven by new capital causing a trend reversal, or is it a short squeeze formed after forced liquidations of shorts?
Both look the same.
But the outcomes are completely different.
If spot capital continues to enter afterward, BTC finds buyers on dips, and the price can hold at a high level, then it looks more like a genuine trend reversal.
But if the liquidation wave ends and the price immediately loses momentum, then this rally might just be leverage pushing itself up.
So don’t rush to draw conclusions about the market now.
What really matters is whether, after all shorts are cleared, there are still people willing to buy with real money.
$BTC $ZEC Updated at noon on September 5. Yesterday's nonfarm payroll did really scare the market. The US added 162,000 jobs in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, and then market bets on Fed rate hikes clearly intensified. $BTC fell from around $82,000 and is now back at around $79,600. But today, when I watch the market, there's actually one more important question than the rise and fall of $BTC: Has the capital really left crypto? Currently, the total global crypto market capitalization is still around $2.77 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $95.6 billion, $BTC market share of about 57.7%. This shows the market is indeed reducing risk, but hasn't yet reached a full retreat. And this decline has a key background: $BTC was just after breaking through $82,000, but was forcibly pushed back by strong nonfarm payrolls. So now is not the time to simply say "breakout failed." A more accurate explanation would be: after the breakout, it undergoes the first macro stress test. If $BTC stabilizes near $79,000 and then returns above $80,000, then yesterday's decline feels more like a shakeout. But if $79,000 still can't hold and continues to seek support at $77,000 or even $75,000, then the previous breakout must be admitted to temporarily failing. I'm actually more focused on $ETH now. Because a few days ago, after $ETH broke above $2500, it was always seen as a confirmation signal to see if the altcoin market could spread. Now $ETH has fallen back down to around $2450. If it can move quickly,📌Big Reversal on Nonfarm Night｜Strong Employment Data Rewrite Rate Hike Expectations
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, nearly three times the expected 55,000; unemployment rate at 4.1%, average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-over-month, with June-July data revised upward by a total of 55,000.
Waller's dovish remarks had pushed the September rate hike probability down to 50%, but with the explosive nonfarm data, rate hike expectations rebounded to 60%-65%.
The 10Y US Treasury yield surged to 4.80%, 2Y broke 4.40%, and the dollar regained lost ground.
The market quickly plunged: BTC dropped from 81,200 to below 80,000 in three minutes, ETH fell back near 2,400, and gold declined 70-100 USD in 15 minutes.
Logic: Strong employment resilience → inflation downward pressure hindered → rate hike expectations rise, zero-yield assets under pressure.
⚠️This is not a bull market confirmation, but a correction of dovish trades. The key is the 9.11 CPI:
✅If CPI is hot: the 80,000 level is hard to hold, looking for a pullback to 74,000-76,000
✅If CPI cools: nonfarm shock digested, challenge 81,000 again
Last night, chasing funds have already been shaken out, market volatility increased, pay attention to risk control.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
$BTC $ETH $SNDK The US August employment data performed impressively, cooling market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Data shows that nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, significantly higher than the market's previous expectation of 56,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Meanwhile, employment data for the previous two months was also revised upward, indicating that the US labor market still has some resilience.
After the data release, US Treasury yields and the US dollar strengthened, gold came under pressure, and Bitcoin also experienced a rapid pullback. $BTC had previously surged above $82,000 but then fell below $80,000, retreating more than $2,000 in a short time.
The market's repricing of September policy is a key reason for this volatility. The stronger the employment, the less pressure there is on the Federal Reserve to cut rates immediately. Although Trump has publicly called for rate cuts again, the Fed still needs to make judgments based on both employment and inflation data.
Next, PPI and CPI data will become the market's focus and may further influence rate cut expectations ahead of the September policy meeting. $ETH #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Trump calls for rate cuts, but the non-farm payrolls pour cold water on the market
The recent market action really feels like a "left-right struggle." 😂
On one hand, Trump keeps calling for rate cuts, and policy-wise, it's relatively friendly to the crypto market;
On the other hand, strong employment data makes the market worry again:
The Federal Reserve won't pivot to easing that quickly.
So now the market shows a clear split:
Policy expectations are bullish, but macro data is bearish.
BTC fell below around 80,000, and ETH and SOL also weakened.
But I think the most important thing now is not to guess:
Whether Trump wins or the Fed wins.
It's about who the market ultimately listens to.
In the short term, data has a more direct impact on price; before liquidity expectations truly ease, BTC continuing to fluctuate or even retesting near 75,000 is not surprising.
In the medium term, keep watching two things:
Federal Reserve policy + crypto regulatory legislation.
As for the long term, I still haven't completely changed my view.
Institutional allocation, Bitcoin strategic reserves, and clearer crypto regulation—these logics haven't disappeared.
So now I prefer to understand it as:
The wind is still there, but the short-term direction is confused.
The biggest mistake in this kind of market is chasing longs when it rises and turning bearish when it falls.
Actually, that's unnecessary.
Look at the big picture for the trend, and the small cycles for the rhythm.
If BTC really wants to strengthen again, it needs to reclaim key resistance first.
If it continues downward, wait for key support to form structure before considering entry.
Be patient; the market won't deny you opportunities just because you enter 10 minutes late.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
⟡ Follow the trend
⟡ Know when to stop trading
⟡ Trade without attachment
The above is only personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% ETH IS NOT JUST AN ALTCOIN BET ANYMORE.$ The more important question today is not whether ETH can move higher in the short term. It is whether Ethereum can continue converting institutional liquidity, stablecoins, DeFi activity and real-world assets into sustainable economic value. Recent data gives both sides of the story. ETH is trading around the mid-$2,000s, while spot Ethereum ETFs are attracting meaningful institutional capital. On September 3, U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded roughly $141M of $PUMP could go absolutely bonkers if @a1lon9 ships these 2 things:
• Bring @Pumpfun to Robinhood Chain
• Add perps directly to Pump.fun
$PONS is already outperforming $PUMP with huge activity on Robinhood, while Solana memes are cooling off.
PONS did $4.89M in daily fees vs Pump.fun’s $1.72M.
Perps could mean massive new revenue → bigger buybacks → more $PUMP burned.
If they execute, a $10–20B valuation doesn’t look crazy.Nonfarm night, why did Bitcoin suddenly crash at the $80,000 mark?
Bitcoin just surged from $77,000 all the way to $80,000, rising over 4% in 24 hours. The bulls were already shouting "$80,000 is stable."
Then the nonfarm data came out: 162,000 new jobs added in August, while the expectation was only 55,000—three times the forecast. The market instantly reversed, dropping from 81,600 to below 79,800 in minutes, evaporating $2,400. FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike jumping from 50% straight to 67%. U.S. Treasury yields spiked sharply, the dollar strengthened—Bitcoin, as a non-interest-bearing asset, sees funds fleeing faster than anything once rate hike expectations rise.
Can it still push back to $80,000?
From the market perspective, there are two key points:
First, this flash crash is driven by sentiment, not a fundamental collapse. Although the rate hike probability surged, some views believe the market's bet on a September hike is just "short-term noise amplification," and the actual probability of a hike is below 15%. Once the market digests the overreaction, there is room for price recovery.
Second, the technicals are not dead yet. After the flash crash, it stabilized around 79,400, with the EMA50 at 78,360 providing short-term key support. The MACD golden cross still holds positive values, and the RSI at 52.37 indicates there is upward momentum after the nonfarm volatility subsides.
But I don't think "possible rebound" means rushing in to catch a falling knife. The $80,000 level has turned from support into resistance—reclaiming it requires new catalysts (such as dovish speeches or weakening CPI data) to suppress rate hike expectations. Until then, $80,000 is the ceiling. $BTC I used to only focus on K-lines, thinking the price explained everything, but later I realized that was the biggest illusion.
The coins that really caused me losses often had whitepapers full of grand promises, but their code hadn’t been updated for half a year.
For one project I bought, I checked its GitHub commit history, and the most recent update was still eight months ago.
At that moment, I felt half my heart sink; sure enough, it kept declining steadily afterward without any decent rebound.
Since then, when choosing coins, I first look at developer activity. Even if the price drops, as long as the code is being updated, I’m willing to hold.
For example, $LINK, it falls whenever the market panics, but GitHub has new content every week, and the community is still discussing new use cases for the oracle.
Also $UNI, its version iterations never stop, and parameter adjustments are timely. When projects like this dip, I actually want to buy more.
Then there’s $AAVE, with complex lending logic, but the dev team keeps optimizing the liquidation mechanism, which gives me confidence.
I compare these to those pump-and-dump coins that only talk big, and the difference is clear.
Of course, good code doesn’t mean the price will rise immediately, but at least I know what I’m betting on, not just relying on luck.
Now, whenever I look at a new coin, I spend ten minutes browsing its codebase and proposal forums first.
If I find it’s all fake accounts spamming with no real technical discussion, I block it immediately.
If I see someone seriously reporting bugs and the team responds, even if the price isn’t attractive, I’m willing to allocate a small position.
This rule has helped me avoid at least five or six scam coins, saving enough money for six months’ breakfast.
Prices can lie, emotions can lie, but the traces of consistent work don’t lie.
Trump’s latest rate comments are sending a clear message: he wants cheaper money. Back in June, he estimated that every 1% increase in rates costs the U.S. roughly $800B a year. Now the figure has shifted closer to $650B. The number changed, but the political message didn’t: Lower rates = lower fiscal pressure. Then came the latest U.S. jobs data. Payrolls remained stronger than expected, giving the Fed another reason to stay cautious on easing. That creates a major policy clash: 🇺🇸 Trump: Cut