Orbit Post Sitemap
#NonfarmPayrollsExploded Observer: Expected 2.9 times, rate hike probability maxed out
At 8:30 tonight, once the data came out, the market was stunned.
US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, expected only 56,000, hitting 2.9 times the expectation. Previous value was -23,000, this jump is huge.
CME rate hike probability jumped from about 50% directly to 62.3%, next stop 70%.
Market reaction was honest: BTC plunged from 80,500 to 79,200, gold plummeted over 70 dollars, US Treasury yields soared. Previously, the market logic was "cooling employment → rate hike probability down → risk assets rebound," but tonight this script was completely overturned.
But one detail is worth noting:
A single nonfarm payroll report cannot solely determine the direction of the September FOMC.
Next week's August CPI is the real final judge. If CPI also exceeds expectations → September rate hike is locked in; if CPI is moderate → there may still be a chance.
---
Three key milestones are set:
Tonight's nonfarm ✅ released, bearish impact settled
Next week's CPI → the real direction switch
September 15-16 FOMC → the finale
Before these are completed, the direction is still undecided.
Don't rush to bottom-fish or short tonight. The initial candlestick right after the data release is often swept by algorithms; wait for the market to digest before acting. My short positions remain, but no rush to add; wait for CPI to give the final signal.
#BTC #NonfarmData #RateHikeProbability #CPIIsTheRealJudge #CalculateYourOwnLeverage $BTC BTC.D is not a fixed value; it oscillates within a range. When BTC.D rises, funds flow into BTC, and altcoins generally come under pressure; when BTC.D slightly falls, altcoins get a chance to breathe.
Currently: BTC.D maintains a high-level range oscillation and has not continued to decline.
$SOL: Can receive capital support during the BTC.D oscillation and pullback window;
ZEC, ENA: Even at high BTC.D levels, they can experience short-term pulses based on narratives, but it's difficult to establish a large-scale trend;
$DOGE: The market is almost unaffected by small BTC.D fluctuations and is entirely sentiment-driven.
Do not expect altcoins to collectively enter a major bull market when BTC.D remains high. Only when BTC.D shows a sustained decline will the altcoin sector have an overall opportunity. During high-level oscillation phases, it is only suitable to capture local themes and leading projects.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 Non-farm payrolls crash the market, but memory chips collectively surge! SanDisk joins the S&P 100, AI memory goes completely crazy
SanDisk surged 11.9% in a single day to $1740, Micron rose over 6% breaking the $1000 mark, SK Hynix rose over 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 3%.
Why?
AI's strong demand is supporting the market. Goldman Sachs expects DRAM and NAND supply-demand tightness to continue until 2027, with AI server DRAM usage 8 to 10 times that of traditional servers. Samsung's high-end AI memory capacity is sold out through the end of 2026.
SanDisk: Data center revenue surged 1298% year-over-year and doubled quarter-over-quarter. Even more impressive, it was officially included in the S&P 100 on September 21 — passive funds are immediately coming to lift the stock.
Micron: Plans to increase HBM monthly capacity to 100,000 wafers by year-end; the most advanced HBM is sold out for all of 2026. However, 80% of the Taiwan union supports a strike, so supply could be cut again at any time.
My judgment: The storage AI logic is not finished yet; short-term chasing of highs requires caution. SanDisk has passive funds to catch the stock, Micron has long-term benefits but union risks. The real direction depends on the CPI on September 11; if SanDisk's September 30 earnings report and guidance exceed expectations, it could rise another wave.
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX The US added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, while a Reuters survey expected only 56,000. The actual figure is nearly three times the expectation. "Far exceeding expectations" is not an exaggeration. "Rising bets on rate hikes" is also true. After the data release, the market's pricing for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September rose from 49.4% to 58.4%. The two-year US Treasury yield briefly rose to around 4.38%. Wall Street's first reaction was standard: the stronger the employment, the more confident the Fed is to continue suppressing inflation. Interest rates rise, valuations come under pressure. However, the market did not lose control. As of the close on September 4, the S&P 500 index fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq fell 0.3%, while the Russell 2000 index actually rose 0.2%. If this nonfarm report were enough to trigger a sustained tightening cycle, the market should not have fallen so little. My judgment is straightforward: this data is moderately bullish for risk assets in the medium term. It increases the likelihood of a September rate hike but significantly reduces concerns about the economy sliding into recession. A 25 basis point rate hike can be calculated and digested. Corporate profits entering a down cycle would fundamentally undermine the bull market. Previously, the market was worried that US employment was suddenly slowing sharply. The initial July nonfarm figure showed a decrease of 23,000 jobs, which once sparked recession discussions. The latest report revised July to an increase of 21,000 jobs, and June was also revised upward. The two months combined added 55,000 more jobs. This revision carries more weight than the single 162,000 jobs in August. It indicates that summer employment did not experience a cliff-like drop. Companies slowed hiring but have not yet shifted to widespread layoffs. The unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, and the labor force participation rate has risen Another chain cut off!
Ondo's move is quite decisive
On September 8th, Aptos and Noble directly stopped minting USDY
Osmosis and Mantra using the IBC bridge also got hit
What I'm watching is the phrase "fully backed reserves"
Simply put, it's about fearing cross-chain issues
Better to take it back and manage it yourself for peace of mind
Whales holding over 1000 can still redeem at net asset value
The window is open until 2027
What about small holders?
They can only bridge to other networks themselves
It's a bit troublesome
But at least the money isn't locked
This wave isn't a bad thing
RWA projects are starting to contract their battle lines
Instead of spreading chains everywhere to look strong
Better to concentrate liquidity on a few main battlefields
I guess more projects will follow
Cross-chain arbitrage opportunities
Might be changing soon
Do you have USDY in your hands?
$APT $ONDO
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ On-chain capital rebalancing: Ethereum mainnet led with a single-day net inflow of $46.47 million, while Robinhood Chain led the decline with a net outflow of $21.07 million for L2s. Data from September 5 shows that over the past day, on-chain funds were clearly concentrated on Ethereum mainnet and a few established public chains: Ethereum had a net inflow of $46.47 million, about 4.5 times that of second-place Solana; on the other hand, Robinhood Chain, Arbitrum, Hyperliquid, and others collectively saw net outflows of over $100 million, with the four major L2s (including Robinhood Chain) seeing a combined net outflow of about $69.55 million. The market showed a rebalancing pattern of Ethereum inflows and L2 withdrawals. Robinhood Chain was the largest net outflow of the day, with a net outflow of $21.07 million. This brokerage-based L2, launched in July 2026 and built on Arbitrum Orbit, has ranked among the top in meme coin and tokenized stock trading volume over the past two months. Its on-chain fees once surpassed Ethereum, Solana, and Base, making it one of the most watched emerging L2s this year. However, it took only a short time for trading volume to bridge funds to turn into net outflows, indicating that the high activity driven by hot trading may not translate into sustained capital accumulation. Meanwhile, Arbitrum, Base, and Polygon all turned to net outflows, with the four major L2s combinedly outflowing about $69.55 million. The perpetual contract public chain Hyperliquid had a net outflow of 18%.Nonfarm Payroll Data Incoming! Understand Its Real Impact on the Crypto Market
Nonfarm payrolls are the core US employment data. They do not directly determine coin prices but rewrite market expectations for Fed rate cuts, directly amplifying crypto market volatility. During data release, flash spikes and liquidations often occur.
Understand the market in three scenarios:
1. Nonfarm significantly exceeds expectations (strong employment)
Rate cut expectations are delayed, the US dollar and Treasury bonds strengthen, risk assets come under pressure, BTC and ETH tend to drop short-term, altcoins fall even more.
2. Nonfarm mildly weakens
Employment cools down slowly, rate cut expectations rise, which is a relatively friendly environment for the crypto market, making it easier for major coins to rebound.
3. Nonfarm data is extremely bad
Not a positive signal; it triggers recession fears, causing simultaneous sell-offs in US stocks and crypto. Bad news is a real bearish factor.
⚠️ Two very critical realities:
The first candlestick right after nonfarm release is often a fake-out, frequently rising then falling or falling then rising. Don’t chase the spike impulsively.
Nonfarm is just a catalyst; after short-term volatility, the market will return to its original technical trend.
Practical tips
Do not heavily position in advance to bet on nonfarm results; volatility will spike instantly.
Wait for the data to settle, observe 1-2 candlesticks to distinguish real moves from fake spikes before acting.
Altcoin risk during nonfarm events is extremely high; try to reduce position size.
On nonfarm night, have you ever been stopped out by a spike? Share your experience in the comments.⚡ Thị trường đang bước vào giai đoạn mà một con số kinh tế có thể làm đảo chiều cả Bitcoin, vàng lẫn chứng khoán. Báo cáo việc làm Mỹ mạnh hơn dự kiến đã đẩy lợi suất trái phiếu tăng, khiến kỳ vọng Fed tăng lãi suất trong tháng 9 quay trở lại. Bitcoin trượt xuống dưới 80.000 USD, còn vàng ghi nhận tuần giảm hơn 1%. Điều đáng chú ý là nền kinh tế mạnh chưa chắc là tin tốt cho tài sản rủi ro. Mỹ tạo thêm 162.000 việc làm trong tháng 8, vượt xa dự báo 65.000. Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp giữ ở 4,1%, khiến thRobinhood's on-chain revenue has surged to the forefront, which is far more interesting than just the stock price hitting a new high.
Previously, everyone watching HOOD focused on retail trading, options, and crypto fees. Now that on-chain revenue is emerging, it shows that what they want to build is not just a "broker better at crypto trading," but a platform that controls user entry points, trading behavior, and settlement networks all in-house. Arbitrum has also been ignited in the process, because the revenue sharing brought by Robinhood Chain has made the market seriously ask for the first time: can the L2 tech stack actually generate cash flow?
I would be cautious: revenue entering the ecosystem does not automatically mean it goes into the pockets of token holders. Many crypto narratives tend to translate "the company making money" into "the tokens I hold should rise." There is governance, distribution, compliance, and a long road in between.
#HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 What makes BTC most intoxicating right now is not its rise, but that it has started to outperform gold.
The ratio has reached a high since the beginning of the year, indicating that some money in the market is no longer satisfied with "buying safe havens"; it is re-betting on risk elasticity. Gold is like a safe, BTC is like a safe with volatility, and when the market is favorable, the latter looks especially attractive.
But I tend to be more cautious at times like this. BTC strengthening against gold certainly indicates a recovery in crypto risk appetite; however, once U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise again, the first to be questioned will be this kind of "high-elasticity safe-haven asset." True strength is not about running fast, but about having buyers willing to catch the fall during a pullback.
Whether this rally can continue depends not on slogans, but on whether funds are willing to treat BTC as a portfolio asset again rather than just a trading instrument.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Once the non-farm payrolls came out, the hardest part for the market wasn’t that the "data was good," but that it pushed the rate cut hopes further into the future.
August added 162,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%. This set of numbers directly contradicts the trades from a few weeks ago that claimed the "labor market was about to collapse." The problem is, wage growth isn’t strong enough to make ordinary people feel at ease, and inflation is still sticky. Simply put, companies haven’t done major layoffs, consumers haven’t really caught a break, so the Fed has even more reason to keep a hawkish stance.
What I find most glaring here is: the market wants a soft landing story, but the data says "we can still hold on, so rate hikes can continue." Risk assets fear this kind of environment the most—bad news isn’t bad enough, and good news just turns into interest rate pressure.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 🚨 US jobs data has just dealt a blow to expectations of interest rate cuts. The August report showed that the economy added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding forecasts, causing bond yields and the dollar to rise again. Bitcoin after surpassing $82,000 has retreated to around $80,000, showing that the market is still extremely sensitive to each change in Fed policy. It is worth noting that good economic news no longer means a bullish market. Strong employment helps reduce recession fears, but at the same time gives the Fed more reasonNonfarm in August has just come out strong: The US created 162K more jobs, nearly 3 times the forecast, unemployment remained at 4.1%. But instead of supporting the Fed to keep/raise interest rates to control inflation, Trump asked the Fed to LOWER INTEREST RATES IMMEDIATELY. Trump argued that the US economy is strong enough, credit is improving, so high interest rates are putting the US at a disadvantage. 🔥 He even threatened to stop trade with countries where the US has a trade deficit if the Fed does not act. The paradox lies here: The stronger the nonfarm is, →the more the market is worried about the Fed SanDisk surged nearly 200 points overnight, did Nvidia really place an order?
That SanDisk, last night’s move wasn’t just a rally, it was a launch on the spot.
An epic explosive surge, even the bears (me) got heart attacks just looking at it.
At first, I thought Nvidia suddenly started using SanDisk devices, but after checking the news, I found this was actually three fires combined:
On September 1, Dell’s earnings call explicitly said the AI servers are most short on “DRAM, then NAND”;
On September 2, Nvidia signed an agreement to acquire Hugging Face, disclosed on September 3;
On the same day, Kioxia also stated they are closely cooperating with Nvidia to develop AI ultra-high-speed SSDs.
But it must be made clear, there is currently no announcement of “Nvidia officially purchasing SanDisk devices.”
SanDisk can fly because it has been tied with Kioxia for 25 years, jointly developing and manufacturing NAND, and it is also part of Nvidia’s Storage-Next ecosystem.
I used to only focus on GPUs, but now I finally realize: graphics cards handle computing, but massive data needs a place to be stored?
So this isn’t a baseless rally, but don’t imagine “participating in the ecosystem” as a “big order landing.”
The story soared nearly 200 points overnight, now samples, mass production, and real orders need to catch up quickly.
SanDisk, you’re really fierce, but you really don’t make it easy for people to get on board!
$SNDK $NVDA $ZEC
#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ZEC Follow-up Tracking Manual｜Observation Signals + Price Plan + Scenario Simulation
Based on the current pulse market around 1050, the upcoming key variables are broken down into three parts: what to watch, how to act, and how it might move.
1. Key Observation Signals (in order of priority)
① Volume-Price Relationship (most core)
Continuous volume increase during the rally with price holding steady indicates real capital support and the trend can continue; price stagnation with a sharp drop in volume means the main force's willingness to push the price up is declining, beware of distribution after high-level sideways movement; volume surge during a decline signals the start of a sell-off panic, reduce positions immediately.
② Chip Turnover Situation
Increased frequency of large on-chain transfers and continuous chip flow to exchanges indicate that big holders are preparing to sell; OTC premium narrowing or turning negative means institutional buying is cooling down, signaling liquidity premium has peaked.
③ Order Book Structure
Continuous thickening of sell orders above, especially pressure accumulation in the 1080–1120 range, indicates strong resistance and increased difficulty in breaking through; sparse buy orders below mean a thin buffer for declines, so a rapid drop is likely once selling accelerates.
④ News Catalysts
Focus on whether Grayscale ETF maintains continuous net inflows, as this is the only substantial positive liquidity factor; slowing inflows signal weakening momentum; also watch for new positive narratives on privacy coins—without new catalysts, it’s hard to push prices higher relying solely on existing funds.
2. Price Plan (execute upon trigger)
• 1080–1120 Dense Selling Zone: Take profits on main positions in batches, firmly no adding positions.
• Volume Breakout Above 1050: A strong continuation signal, keep only a small position for speculation, and set trailing stop losses.
• 980–1000 First Buffer Zone: Observe support strength; if not broken, keep base positions; if effectively broken, reduce positions by half.
• Effective Break Below 920 Market End Signal: Clear all positions and exit; do not catch falling knives or chase rebounds.
3. Scenario Simulation (Three Scripts)
Script A: Volume and price rise together, break through 1120
Low probability but possible. Requires continuous large inflows from Grayscale ETF combined with market sentiment resonance to open new space. Even if this happens, beware of large fluctuations at high levels; take profits incrementally with each rise.
Script B: High-level oscillation, repeatedly testing 980–1050
Most likely path. The main force pushes up while selling; the market looks lively but the center of gravity gradually shifts downward. The response is to trade high and low within the range, reduce positions by half, and avoid stubbornness.
Script C: Break below 920, panic-style crash
Refer to the historical 750→150 trend; once a low-liquidity asset breaks support, the drop often exceeds most expectations. The response is unconditional exit; wait for a low-volume sideways stabilization signal over several days before reconsidering.
4. One-sentence Summary
This round of ZEC is essentially a liquidity premium market, not a value revaluation market.
The characteristic of a premium market is: the faster it rises, the shorter the exit window. Profit-taking discipline is more important than judging price direction—the profit in hand is profit; unrealized gains are just numbers on paper. The position drop on the gold side did not appear on our order book. $BTC current price is 79,625.7, 24h -1.42%, amplitude 3.5%, turnover 14.6 billion USD, contract open interest 8.6 billion USD. Both safe-haven and risk assets are weakening simultaneously, indicating overall liquidity contraction, not money flowing from gold to crypto. It's more important to look at positions. The retail long-short account ratio rose from 0.7835 to 1.0165, and the large trader position ratio increased from 1.9534 to 2.1587; both sides are adding longs during the pullback. However, the funding rate has dropped for three consecutive periods: 0.0065%, 0.0045%, 0.0010%, with the long premium nearly zero. More participants but no matching capital, this kind of long structure is fragile. Short-term bias is bearish, 78,618.1 is very likely to be retested. Conditions for bullish reversal: price stands back above 81,377.7, funding rate rises, and large trader position ratio continues to climb. Conditions for bearish reversal: funding rate turns negative, account ratio continues to surge, indicating retail is catching the falling knife, and the decline will deepen. This is public market information and has little impact on $BTC alone.Sisters, do you think $ZEC can rally to 2000??
In three days, it rose from 830 to 1050, up more than 200 dollars, nearly 100% increase in a month, and over 2300% in the past year. Market cap surged to 17.3 billion, once breaking into the top ten cryptocurrencies. It stabilized at 800 the day before yesterday, 900 yesterday, and today it has stabilized above 1000, even breaking 1050 intraday.
The driving force behind this surge is very clear—since the launch of the Grayscale Zcash spot ETF, cumulative net inflows have exceeded 34 million dollars. Compliant funds keep flowing in, and the fundamental story is also brewing—Grayscale’s research report positions ZEC as "financial privacy in the AI surveillance era," which is no longer just speculation but supported by a narrative.
But the most critical point is that the shorts have been cornered. The long-short ratio on Binance and OKX accounts still shows more shorts than longs, at 0.61 and 0.32 respectively. Shorts still hold an overwhelming majority, but the price keeps rising—the shorts pay daily fees to hold on, losing more the longer they hold. The funding rate once hit -1%, meaning shorts pay longs. In the past 24 hours, about 36.6 million dollars worth of ZEC leveraged positions were liquidated, with 34.5 million from shorts being liquidated. Shorts lost over 34 million in one day, and 94% of liquidations were shorts holding on.
Shorts don’t die, the rally doesn’t stop. The market makers won’t let the price drop unless they blow out the shorts. Resistance above is 1080-1120, short-term support at 980-1000, and 920 is a crucial lifeline.
But don’t forget—this is an "event-driven + short squeeze" surge, not a healthy bull market rising slowly. At this level, chasing longs risks standing idle, and shorting risks being liquidated. If you want to play, wait for a pullback near 980-1000 before considering, set stop loss below 920, and target 1080-1100. Don’t heavy buy at the top, and definitely don’t catch a falling knife empty-handed.
Sisters, can ZEC rally to 2000?? Tell me in the comments!! 🧋💀
$BTC
$ETH
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Conclusion first: The nonfarm payroll data is not just "good," it's "ridiculously good." The addition of 162,000 jobs directly pushed the probability of a September rate hike from about 50% to over 60%. A rate hike is the biggest certainty ahead.
---
1. Nonfarm Payroll Data: Exceptionally Strong
The US added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, while market expectations were only 53,000-56,000. The actual figure is three times the forecast and exceeded the upper limits predicted by all institutions.
More importantly, the previous two months' data were revised upward by a total of 55,000 — July reversed from a "decline of 23,000" to an "increase of 21,000," completely shattering the narrative of "rapid employment deterioration." The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, and the labor force participation rate rose from 61.4% to 61.6%. The only easing signal was that the year-over-year wage growth slowed from 3.2% to 3.1%, the lowest since June 2021.
2. Market Reaction: Surface Divergence, Fundamental Agreement
All three major US stock indices closed lower — Dow down 0.51% (-271.86 points), S&P 500 down 0.38%, Nasdaq down 0.29%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.37% against the trend, with all 30 component stocks rising. SanDisk soared 11.90%, Micron rose over 6%. However, Apple fell 2.51%, Microsoft dropped 2.04%, and Tesla plunged 5.92%.
Spot gold briefly plunged over $110 to $4365/oz. Bitcoin dove from above $81,000, briefly falling below $78,650 and losing the $80,000 level. The 2-year US Treasury yield spiked to 4.416%, the highest since January 2025.
3. Rate Hike Probability: Not "Possible," but "Highly Likely"
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a September rate hike jumped from about 50% before the data release to 58%-60.3%. The chance of holding rates steady in October has dropped to 28.7%, with a 54.6% chance of a 25 basis point hike and even a 16.7% chance of a 50 basis point hike.
Allianz Chief Advisor Mohamed El-Erian noted this report shows labor market "demand and supply both far exceed expectations." However, Fed Governor Waller previously stated that if inflation data shows continued easing of price pressures, he leans toward supporting holding rates steady. The real showdown will be next week's CPI and PPI.
4. Why the Decline?
First, the semiconductor sector's rally against the trend is actually a warning sign. Capital is flowing into AI and memory chips, essentially seeking a "macro-resistant" safe haven amid high rate expectations. But this logic is fragile — once CPI data confirms inflation stickiness, high-valuation tech stocks will face a comprehensive valuation reset.
Second, the crypto market's pricing of rate expectations is just beginning. The nonfarm data "completely shattered the market's optimistic expectations of an imminent monetary easing." Bitcoin's plunge from above $81,000 is only the first wave of reaction. Higher US Treasury yields make risk-free assets more attractive, and a stronger dollar directly suppresses global liquidity.
Third, the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 is the real eye of the storm. Before then, any rebound may only be a brief respite from short covering.
Bitcoin at $80,000 and Ethereum at $2,500 are very likely the highs for September. The semiconductor sector's rally won't last long either. The next script is not "if it will fall," but "how much it will fall."
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #August Nonfarm Payrolls at 162,000 Far Exceed Expectations, Rate Hike Bets Heat Up
How to View the Sharp Drop in Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin During the Nonfarm Payroll Night
Data Released: Spot gold briefly dropped over $70 to $4405/oz; spot silver fell $1.5 to $65.7/oz. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 34 points to 99.36, while Bitcoin and Ethereum both experienced significant declines.
Many may wonder why, despite positive employment data signaling economic strength, various assets simultaneously faced selling pressure. The core logic lies in the market’s repricing of Federal Reserve monetary policy, creating a "good news is bad news" trading scenario.
Nonfarm payroll data is the Federal Reserve’s most critical reference for adjusting monetary policy. This employment data significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating the US labor market remains robust, which will restrain inflation from falling. Consequently, the market lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts and priced in a longer duration of high interest rates.
Complete transmission logic: Employment data exceeds expectations → market rate cut expectations cool down, prolonging high rates → US Treasury yields rise, US Dollar Index strengthens.
Gold and silver are non-yielding assets; the higher the interest rates, the greater the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar directly suppresses dollar-denominated precious metals, causing short-term capital to exit en masse and leading to a sharp and rapid decline in precious metals.
$BTC Bitcoin and $ETH Ethereum are high-risk assets, with their prices closely tied to the US dollar liquidity environment. When rates remain high and the dollar strengthens, capital tends to flow into risk-free assets like US Treasuries, exiting the crypto market. Coupled with increased market volatility during the nonfarm period, many leveraged positions triggered liquidations, further amplifying the decline.
Subsequent Market Outlook:
In the short term, the market is mainly driven by Fed rate expectations, with the dollar and Treasury yields as key indicators. Short-term volatility will remain intense, making blind bottom-fishing unwise. The 1-3 trading days after the nonfarm report are an emotional digestion phase, requiring close attention to subsequent data on wages and inflation to verify whether the labor market’s strength is sustainable.
In the medium term, a single month’s nonfarm data cannot determine the Fed’s final policy direction. If inflation falls again, market expectations for rate cuts will return. The medium-term trend for gold and crypto assets still depends on when the overall US dollar liquidity turning point occurs.
In short, the nonfarm data is just the appetizer; the upcoming CPI is the main event.
For now, avoid heavy positions; those who have lost money should not rush to recover but wait patiently.Last night I got stuck shorting SanDisk, but it made me realize an issue.
After Trump's speech last night, the market clearly went risk-on, and the storage sector was directly pulled up by funds.
I shorted $SNDK at 1688, and now the price is still around 1730, so this short position is temporarily stuck.
Honestly, from a short-term perspective, this trade doesn't feel comfortable.
But I'm not in a hurry to cut losses now.
The reason is simple: a strong rise doesn't mean the upward logic is over, but it also doesn't mean shorting is wrong.
From the chart, the biggest change for SanDisk this time isn't how much it rose, but that after a volume breakout, the price started to consolidate at a high level.
This indicates that funds haven't obviously withdrawn yet.
So what really needs to be observed now isn't "will it fall tomorrow," but:
Is the high-level consolidation a buildup of strength, or is it profit-taking?
If volume continues to break through around 1745, I'll admit the market is stronger than I thought and the short logic needs reevaluation.
But if it repeatedly fails to break higher at the top and volume starts to decline, I'll pay more attention to the pullback opportunity after this rally.
This trade also reminds me of a problem:
The most dangerous thing about shorting strong stocks isn't being wrong on direction, but being too early.
The market won't immediately fall just because you think "it's risen too much."
For now, I'll hold this position and observe.
If you were me, would you choose to hold on and wait for a pullback, or admit the mistake and exit immediately? The strange thing about the market right now is the clear divergence: investors have just poured $46.1 billion into global money market funds, indicating that large cash flows are still in a defensive stance. Meanwhile, $BTC is testing the price zone last seen in May. The important question is: will cash return to risk assets, or will Bitcoin lose momentum? Perhaps this is the signal worth watching the most. What do you think? #PONS
232x sounds great, but don't just look at the gains.
The key is that Uniswap Labs recently confirmed buying PONS, and the price surged 500% that day.
A decentralized exchange giant buying a token platform's coin is officially called a strategic partnership, but in reality, PONS now accounts for over 60% of Robinhood's on-chain Launchpad trading volume, and Uniswap's trading depth also relies on it. This business adds up.On September 3rd, there was a significant capital inflow into the US spot Bitcoin ETF.
The net inflow for the day was about $731 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since January 14th this year. BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed about $454 million, accounting for more than 60% of the total inflow that day.
At the same time, the ETH spot ETF also saw a noticeable capital inflow again.
So what the market should really focus on now is not just "institutions are back."
It's whether this money can keep coming back continuously.
Especially the fact that IBIT's share is so high.
A large single-day inflow is certainly demand, but if it is mainly concentrated in one product, it also means a high concentration of funds.
More importantly, ETF inflows ultimately need to be considered together with spot prices and trading volumes.
If ETFs continue to attract capital and BTC prices steadily rise, it indicates that institutional demand is forming sustainably.
If it's just a sudden surge on one day followed by a quick outflow, it looks more like a position adjustment.
True institutional inflow is never just $700 million in one day.
It's about whether the money is still there a month later.
$BTC $ETH #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Crypto Morning Brief
This time institutions really put in a big sum.
On September 3rd, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $731 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since January this year.
Among them, BlackRock's IBIT product alone absorbed about $454 million.
More than 60% of the money went into one basket.
ETH ETFs also saw significant capital inflows during the same period.
On the surface, this looks like institutions are buying back in.
But I want to pour some cold water on that.
A $731 million inflow in one day is impressive.
But one day's data can’t prove that institutions have started a long-term return.
Especially with IBIT accounting for such a high proportion, it shows funds are indeed buying BTC, but it also exposes a problem:
Is this a sustained spot demand, or just a few large funds concentrating their portfolio adjustments?
So don’t just focus on today’s numbers.
Look at a week, look at a month.
If ETFs keep seeing inflows and BTC prices hold steady, then there’s something real.
Otherwise, $700 million in one day looks strong but might just be the market catching its breath.
Money coming in isn’t scary.
What’s scary is thinking the money will keep coming.
$BTC $ETH #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has returned to a state of divergence after a comprehensive rebound the previous day. BTC fell below $80,000, ETH and SOL retreated simultaneously, but private assets like ZEC and XMR bucked the trend and strengthened. More notably, the BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $730.8 million the previous trading day, far above the preliminary data, but this capital occurred before the US non-farm payroll release. Therefore, the most important thing today is not to simply judge "why ETF buying is still why BTC is still falling," but to clarify the chronology: before non-farm payrolls, institutional funds clearly flowed back; after non-farm payrolls, macro expectations regained pressure, and the latest round of institutional fund direction has yet to be fully announced. This brings the current market closer to a macro-driven oscillating pullback rather than a confirmed capital retreat. The market pulled back again, but far from panic. As of 09:27 HKT on September 5, BTC was at $79,629, down 1.54% in 24h; ETH at $2,452.97, down 2.13%; SOL at $101.87, down 1.64%. According to CoinGecko Charts, the total crypto market capitalization is about $2.77 trillion, down 1.71% in 24h, and BTC holds about 57.66% of the market share. Compared to price, sentiment has cooled very little. The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 74 to 73, still in the "greedy" range. This means the optimism formed by yesterday's rapid rally hasn't disappeared after a day of pullback. The market is doing soBTC still hasn't reclaimed $80,000 after the 162,000 nonfarm payrolls announcement; last night's initial rebound didn't provide strong confirmation.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 162,000 in nonfarm payrolls for August, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%; average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. Another detail to note: June and July were revised upward by a combined 55,000. Employment hasn't suddenly worsened, and wages haven't accelerated further.
Before 8 PM last night, BTC was around $79,400; after 3 AM, OKX quoted about $79,700. The price remains below the $80,000 threshold. The data only absorbed part of the uncertainty, and relying on a single nonfarm report to determine direction has a low success rate.
Today is the weekend, and I consider $80,000 as the emotional dividing line. If BTC stands back above and holds, then we can see if last night's drop was just pre-data position reduction; if the rebound continues to stay below $80,000 and breaks below $79,000, I will first reduce altcoin exposure and avoid adding leverage.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, OKX. Personal record, not investment advice.
$BTC Woke up in the middle of the night, and the market suddenly started "partying" again 😂
It was still falling last night, but after a sleep:
The crypto market is all in the green.
$ETH, $ZEC, which had dropped a few days ago, are now directly recovering, with some even hitting new local highs.
I think this rally isn’t driven by a single piece of news, but rather a combination of factors coinciding.
First, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are heating up again.
Initial jobless claims data weakened, and the market started trading on the logic of cooling employment, loosening rate expectations, which naturally made risk assets feel better.
Second, geopolitical tensions are adding fuel to the "digital gold" narrative.
Oil prices are rising, gold is strengthening, risk-off sentiment is heating up, and BTC is also benefiting from some of this sentiment premium.
Third, institutional funds are still buying.
BTC ETF inflows continued in August, and institutional accumulation of ETH is also quite evident.
So these factors combined:
Easing policy expectations + geopolitical risk-off + institutional funds
Naturally, the market started to stir.
But I still want to remind you:
When prices rise, it’s easiest to forget the risks.
Especially after a recent downturn, a sudden continuous rally can easily lead to:
"The dip is over, the bull market is back, hurry and chase!"
And then...
The market gives you another needle. 😂
Plus, there’s the big variable of the nonfarm payrolls tonight.
So my own thinking remains:
The trend can be bullish, but don’t chase recklessly.
Keep holding your base positions,
Wait for a pullback if you haven’t entered yet,
Don’t heavily bet on direction before the data comes out.
The market will never keep rising just because you’re bullish.
Going slower actually makes it easier to capture the whole move.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
⟡ Observe the trend and act accordingly
⟡ Know when to stop trading
⟡ Trade without attachment
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Last night's non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, pushing back the hope that the Fed might not raise rates in September. BTC briefly broke through 82K before falling back to around 80K; now the market is back to a very clear contradiction: ETF funds are strong, but employment, oil prices, and U.S. Treasury bonds are all pushing rate expectations higher.
① Non-farm payrolls: This is today's most important catalyst
The U.S. added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, nearly three times the market expectation of 56,000; the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, and employment for June and July was revised upward by about 55,000 combined.
This directly wiped out the dovish trades brought by Waller the day before.
FedWatch's probability of a 25bp rate hike in September rose to about 59%–65% at one point, closing near 58.4%.
My understanding is simple:
Employment is not bad enough for the Fed to have to stop.
So now the real determinant for September's rate decision is no longer employment, but the upcoming CPI/PPI.
② BTC: Clear profit-taking above 82K
This move is very representative:
Waller leans dovish
→ Yields and the dollar fall
→ BTC breaks through 80K
→ Shorts get squeezed
→ Non-farm payrolls exceed expectations
→ Rate hike probability rises
→ BTC falls back from 82K. At 8:30 last night, a jobs report gave the market a thorough blow. US nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 in August, while the market expected 55,000. Three times more. Even worse, the data for the first two months was revised upward—in July, it changed from "down 23,000" to "up 21,000," and in June, from 20,000 to 31,000, totaling 55,000 jobs out of thin air. A month ago, the whole market was telling a recession story, but now the official data has overturned that story itself. Gold's reaction was direct: spot dropped $70 in the short term, falling below 4,400. But if you only see "gold dropped," you're missing the more important half—it only dropped $70, then stopped falling. 1. What exactly changed in the nonfarm payrolls? Looking at this report, the market is not repricing "whether the economy is good," but "whether the Fed still has a reason not to raise rates." The probability of a rate hike jumped from 52.6% to 65%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.416%, the highest since January 2025. The US dollar index then strengthened to 99.2. For gold, this is a standard triple suppression: real interest rates go up, the dollar goes up, and the opportunity cost of holding gold goes up. So the $70 drop is reasonable. But note the last bar—the S&P 500 only fell 0.08%, barely moving. This detail is crucial. If there really is a tightening panic, the stock market shouldn't be so calm. The market's current mindset$CORE CORE did complete the hard fork fix and token burn, but the price didn't rise, and the reason is straightforward:
All positive news has been priced in
After the vulnerability was exposed, CORE plummeted 19.5% in 7 days; the fix itself was already expected by the market. A 4% rise is just a response to returning to normal, not a new upward momentum.
The burn scale is negligible
Over 150 million tokens were permanently burned, which sounds like a lot, but CORE's total supply is 2.1 billion, so this only accounts for 0.7%. There are still large monthly unlocks putting selling pressure, so this burn cannot sustain a continuous price increase.
Trust cracks are hard to repair
The project team has yet to disclose details of the vulnerability, the exact amount of excess rewards, or whether any tokens have entered the market. Coinbase and four other exchanges once suspended deposits and withdrawals; doubts about governance capabilities won't be erased by a single hard fork.
Simply put: fixing the vulnerability was necessary, not beyond expectations. Without fundamental changes to the token economic model, this level of positive news is unlikely to reverse the long-term downtrend. $BTC $ETH #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 How did SanDisk's surge come about?
SanDisk 04's single-day surge of about 10.8% was not triggered by a single piece of news, but rather the result of several forces combined: "AI storage super cycle + NAND price increase + spin-off revaluation + sector resonance."
AI data centers have completely rewritten NAND demand.
Massive data generated by large model training/inference makes enterprise SSDs and high-capacity 3D NAND essential for AI infrastructure; Dell's COO bluntly stated that the AI server bottleneck is "DRAM, DRAM, DRAM, then NAND, NAND, NAND."
SanDisk's data center business is expected to grow by 437% year-over-year by FY26, with revenue structure shifting from consumer USB drives/storage cards to high-margin enterprise flash memory. The market no longer prices it as a traditional cyclical stock.
Enterprise 3D NAND contract prices may rise over 100% quarter-over-quarter this season, with price increases contributing two-thirds of SanDisk's quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, and volume only one-third. Under high operating leverage, profits explode nonlinearly, pushing gross margin to 80%.
Industry perspective: NAND supply and demand are so tight that prices have surged for two consecutive quarters.
Counterpoint data: Global NAND revenue in Q2 2026 rose 70% quarter-over-quarter, ASP up 55% quarter-over-quarter (Q1 was already up 90% quarter-over-quarter). AI infrastructure consumption plus manufacturers controlling production limit supply elasticity.
SanDisk's joint venture with Kioxia (Flash Ventures) operates with light assets and capacity, avoiding sole burden of wafer fab depreciation. Profit elasticity in the upcycle is sharper than Micron/Western Digital.
On 9/4, Micron +4.5%, Western Digital +5%, Seagate +5.6%, SK Hynix +5.8%, the entire storage sector rallied collectively, indicating this is an industry beta move rather than a solo surge by SanDisk.
Company perspective: "Value revaluation" after spin-off from Western Digital.
Spun off independently from Western Digital in February 2025, shedding the HDD low-speed business burden, becoming a pure NAND play directly tied to the AI narrative. The valuation framework rewrites from "cyclical hardware" to "AI infrastructure."
Signed multiple multi-year minimum volume long-term contracts (publicly disclosed framework about $93.9 billion), covering about half of FY27 and about two-thirds of FY28 bit supply, smoothing out cyclical fluctuations, giving institutions confidence to buy at high levels.
At the end of August investor day, targets were set for mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth and non-GAAP gross margin around 80% for FY28–30. Bernstein maintains a $3000 price target, further igniting sentiment.
Trading perspective: oversold recovery + macro respite + passive funds
In August, along with the semiconductor sector pullback, the stock price retreated over 30% from the 52-week high of 2354, stabilized before 9/4, representing an oversold rebound plus short covering.
On the day, US Treasury yields fell, and the market repositioned into high-growth semiconductors, providing a macro window for high beta storage stocks.
Included in the MSCI World Index effective 8/31, passive funds buying at the close also laid the groundwork for short-term momentum; on 9/4, with the Nasdaq flat and S&P slightly down, SanDisk surged against the market, showing strong active capital.
AI data centers consume enterprise NAND capacity → contract prices expected to double quarter-over-quarter → SanDisk's light asset model + long-term contracts lock in profits turning price hikes into 80% gross margin → spin-off revaluation + oversold recovery + storage sector resonance, that's how a single-day 10%+ surge happened.$BTC Nonfarm payroll data came out at 162,000, much better than the market expected. The Fed is immediately taking credit and is pressuring the Federal Reserve hard, forcing it to cut interest rates. They even threatened that if the Fed refuses to cut rates, they will resort to trade measures, invoking the president's tariff authority.
Once the news broke, the crypto market took off. Bitcoin surged from 77,000 all the way above 81,000, and Ethereum also climbed back above 2,500. Now the market doesn't really care about the nonfarm data itself; everyone is betting on the upcoming FOMC meeting, watching to see if the Federal Reserve will soften and compromise with a rate cut.
On the charts, funding rates have turned positive, long sentiment is booming, and bulls and bears are fiercely battling. This kind of volatile market carries a very high liquidation risk for contract traders.
The Fed openly called for a return to a low interest rate era, which is essentially a market signal. Everyone is starting to bet on a weaker dollar and looser liquidity. Crypto is especially sensitive to liquidity, so it led the way with a wave of gains.
But the trap is here: if the Fed stands firm and refuses to cut rates, the funds rushing in to go long now will get hit hard.
FOMO chasing is already appearing in the market. Historically, when news like this drives the market, once the hype fades, the market usually oscillates back and forth, repeatedly shaking out both longs and shorts. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
Last night at 8:30, the US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the expected 56,000, and the July data was revised up from -23,000 to 21,000.
After the data release, $BTC and $ETH quickly plunged.
Why does the crypto market fall when employment data is better?
The core reason is that rate cut expectations are suppressed.
Strong nonfarm → Strong US economic resilience → The Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates → US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen → Risk assets come under pressure.
Previously, many funds in the market bet on "weaker employment → rate cuts → liquidity easing," but the nonfarm data directly exceeded expectations, causing long positions to start stop-loss and liquidate, further amplifying the declines of BTC and ETH.
Especially ETH, which has higher risk attributes and volatility, usually falls faster than BTC during market panic.
So the essence of last night's drop is:
Nonfarm exceeds expectations → Rate cut expectations decline → Risk assets are repriced → Concentrated liquidation of leveraged long positions.
Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term; focus next on CPI, PPI, and the Fed's September rate decision.
What truly determines the next direction of BTC and ETH is still the rate cut expectations. NVIDIA strikes again, buying AI community's GitHub—Hugging Face—for $12.9 billion.
What is Hugging Face? It hosts 18 million developers and 3 million models, basically serving as the "default gateway" for open-source AI. Chinese models like DeepSeek and Qwen use it as their first stop when going global.
$12.9 billion is 86 times Hugging Face's annualized revenue (about $150 million), and it's NVIDIA's largest full company acquisition ever. $11.9 billion goes to original shareholders, $1 billion reserved for core employees, expected to complete in the first half of 2027.
NVIDIA $NVDA promises the platform will remain neutral post-acquisition and won't force developers to use NVIDIA computing power. But when Microsoft bought GitHub, it also promised independent operation, yet Azure integration deepened over time. AMD, Intel, and Google are investors and ecosystem participants of Hugging Face; if the platform starts favoring NVIDIA, this deal will likely face antitrust scrutiny.
Back to Bitcoin $BTC, NVIDIA's acquisitions of MediaTek and Hugging Face in recent years are all about "locking down AI ecosystem entry points." There's no direct short-term impact on $BTC, but the more stable the AI track and the deeper the giants' layout, the firmer the valuation anchor for all risk assets. #英伟达拟以129.3亿美元收购HuggingFace Raising interest rates means death, not raising interest rates also means death; this pawn is inherently toxic☠️
Think about it, with 40 trillion in US debt weighing down, raising interest rates? Interest expenses would explode, causing a fiscal collapse right before your eyes.
Not raising interest rates? The US dollar's credit continues to dilute, and inflation can't be contained.
Neither option is favorable.
So some say the cleanest solution is to start a war🔥
If they win, the debt is wiped clean; if they lose, they become slaves.
But the question is, does the US really have that determination?
I think it's doubtful.
They are now hesitant even to fight Iran, let alone make a big move to overturn the table.
After all, if a real war breaks out, the financial system collapses first, the rich flee first, who would still care about national credit?
So don't take the idea of "war solving debt" too seriously.
They don't have the guts, nor the necessity.
The most likely path is the old routine: talk tough and raise rates, but actually print money and drag it out slowly.
For us in the crypto circle, seeing through this is enough. BTC spot ETFs attracted $216 million in a single day, ETH took $87 million, while XRP and SOL combined only made $5 million—this number is more honest than the price itself. Have you noticed? Money has actually been moving, just very quietly. 🫧 Let me start with my own situation. In the past couple of days, I've deliberately lightened my position—not bearish, but to maintain a sense of "being ready to respond at any time." When holding heavily, people become duller; being a bit lighter actually lets you sense the trend. What the market is trading now isn't narrative, it's certainty. - BTC is grinding repeatedly between 77K and 79K. There's no panic or chasing at this level—it's a typical "whoever acts first loses out" stage. - The ETH/BTC exchange rate has reached a very delicate tipping point; continuous ETF inflows but prices fail to keep up indicate institutions are buying and retail investors are waiting. - The inflows into XRP and SOL are closer to tentative positions rather than trend initiation. Among the signals I watch, the ones that interest me most are HYPE's relative strength and OKB's price structure. Neither of these are the main players in mainstream narratives, but funds are willing to stay in them, often indicating that some people have already started laying the groundwork for the next round of sector expansion. Truly smart money never shouts in the most active places. My understanding is this: the current rhythm is very much like a quiet moment before a transition—not because there are no opportunities, but because opportunities are moving from large-cap to small-cap marketsThe September Fed decision was starting to look like a simple “no hike” trade. Not anymore. Waller has said he could support holding rates at 3.50%–3.75% if August inflation continues to cool. But then Friday’s jobs report showed 162K new jobs vs. roughly 55K expected, pushing rate-hike odds back toward ~60%. That’s the disconnect I’m watching: Waller = dovish. Jobs = hawkish. CPI on Sept. 11 = potential tiebreaker. BTC reacted quickly to the Fed narrative, reclaiming $81K before slipping back #Stablecoin total market cap breaks through $185 billion again, OTC funds quietly entering the market
Latest data
The total market cap of stablecoins has risen back above $185 billion, with USDT contributing the most to the increase, and the frequency of large on-chain transfers has noticeably risen. The market price of $BTC is 79,680, with the overall market fluctuating at a high level; incremental funds have not yet massively flooded into the spot market.
Market consensus
Many view the expansion of stablecoins as a leading indicator, believing that OTC funds are stockpiling ammunition and may push prices higher later; others think some of the increase comes from short-term arbitrage turnover and may not all flow into the crypto trading market.
Underlying logic analysis
The rise in stablecoins is a preliminary reference for a bull market but does not mean a big surge will happen immediately. Funds first convert into stablecoins and then wait for the right entry timing; ultimately, the market trend is still constrained by Federal Reserve policies and inflation data.
Personal view (I tend to believe the bull market will gradually return; this is only a personal opinion and not investment advice)
The signal of fund reserves is worth noting; do not blindly rush in just because stablecoins are rising. Wait for clear signals from the market before taking action. After the on-chain deposit and withdrawal channels reopened, market sentiment has clearly heated up, but simply treating this change as a "takeoff switch" may underestimate the complexity of token competition. The essence of channel recovery is to open up the transfer path between staked assets on-chain and the secondary market, bringing previously physically isolated supply and demand back to the surface rather than directly injecting upward momentum. The bulls have solid reasons: hard fork implementation, 150 million excess tokens destroyed, and exchange-level risk relief, the long-standing negative news has indeed been cleared; the backlog of off-exchange wait-and-see funds has finally found an entry point. Meanwhile, some stakers have chosen to continue locking positions, making short-term selling pressure relatively controllable. But the suppressive factors cannot be ignored. The news has fully fermented in communities and livestream channels, opening the take-profit window of "buy expectations, sell facts"; Staking users who had doubts due to bug incidents can now smoothly withdraw their tokens, and their willingness to break even may not be weaker than holding firmly. Historically, trapped positions are concentrated above; the closer the rebound gets to the resistance zone, the more active the selling pressure becomes. The external environment is also uneasy; the market is waiting for non-farm payroll data. If BTC weakens, CORE will struggle to stay unaffected. Thin liquidity means the two-way injection may be more aggressive. Real-world scenarios tend to favor three paths: emotional pulse rebound, rallying and pulling back, or tug-of-war around key price levels. Linking deposits and withdrawals does not mean one-click takeoff; it only resets real supply and demand. Expecting sentiment recovery is fine, but fantasizing about a mindless surge may overlook the fact that the battle between bulls and bears is just beginning. Risk warning: Market volatility is high, deposits and withdrawals are openSeptember 4 Evening $SNDK Market Daily Report
Tonight's nonfarm payroll data greatly exceeded expectations, the overall market weakened, but Sandisk showed a completely independent sector performance.
After the nonfarm data release, U.S. Treasury yields rose, the market increased the probability of a September rate hike, and most growth stocks came under pressure and fell.
However, the storage sector bucked the trend and surged, as AI computing power storage demand logic outweighed the negative impact of interest rates, with funds concentrating into the hardware shovel-selling track. $SNDK closed up nearly 11.9%.
From the market, it can be seen that funds are now engaging in differentiated trading.
Ordinary growth stocks suffer from rate hike losses, but AI hardware targets focus on orders, capacity, and price increase logic, with industry narratives temporarily taking precedence over macro interest rate pressure.
However, risks cannot be ignored.
Tonight's surge is driven by sector sentiment, not earnings catalysts. The risk of rising rate hike expectations remains.
Next week's CPI data will be the next major test.
If inflation rebounds again and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the current profits in the storage sector could easily be realized and lead to a concentrated pullback.
It is not advisable to blindly chase highs now; it is important to distinguish clearly: the short-term is a sector heat market, which does not mean the trend is without risk.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Crypto market funds are not withdrawing as they appear on the surface; the latest ETF data shows institutional funds are still seeking new allocation directions. 🟠 $BTC ETF → saw a single-day net inflow of about $228.4M, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing about $198.6M 🔵, $ETH ETF → net inflow about $94.3M, extending to 12 trading days 🟣. $SOL ETF → attracted about $161M this week, continuing its strong weekly performance since launch. Meanwhile, risk appetite is spreading toward higher Beta assets, and $HYPE is gradually entering traders' view. 📌 Market Interpretation: This is more like funds rotating sectors and expanding risk gradients, rather than simply leaving crypto. If BTC continues to remain stable and ETH, SOL, and high-beta assets continue to receive financial support, the market may gradually evolve from a single BTC rally to a broader rotational market. However, capital inflows do not necessarily mean price increases; in the short term, attention should still be paid to trading volume, ETF sustainability, and leverage levels #BTC #ETH #SOL #HYPE #Crypto #ETF#Long-term US Treasury yields remain high, debt pressure intensifies The 10-year yield hit 4.8%, a 19-month high; the 30-year yield is even more severe at 5.27%, nearly reaching the level before the 2007 financial crisis. The bond repurchase operation by the Fed in August was intended to suppress yields, but now the 30-year yield has returned to pre-repurchase levels, making it all for nothing.
Why can't it be suppressed? Too much debt. US national debt has surpassed $40 trillion, doubling in 10 years, with debt/GDP reaching 123%. Annual interest payments alone are $1.22 trillion, higher than the Pentagon's annual military budget. This fiscal year's interest payments are 15% higher than the same period last year, and this snowball keeps growing.
Last night, nonfarm payrolls were 162,000, significantly exceeding expectations, pushing the probability of a September rate hike to the max. Rate hikes → higher yields → more interest → heavier debt, how to break this vicious cycle?
For BTC and gold, both face short-term pressure. High Treasury yields and a strong dollar have $BTC hovering around 79,000, and $XAU gold grinding near 4,400. But in the long term, with $40 trillion debt continuing to roll over, the dollar's credit will eventually face problems; one is a hedge against fiat risk, the other a hard currency safe haven, making the logic even stronger.
Interestingly, Rubini jumps in now saying the surge in Treasury yields is not due to a debt crisis but because AI capital expenditure is booming. Do you buy that logic? Anyway, the market votes with its feet, and the yields are right there.
Long-term yields remain high, debt pressure intensifies, this issue can't be resolved in the short term.
$BTC CLARITY bill prospects are completely split: On the positive side, SEC Chair Atkins clearly stated that he "expects and hopes" the bill will pass the Senate and be sent to Trump for signing, with the Senate procedural vote on September 15 still on the schedule;
But negative news emerged simultaneously, with the House Republican leadership canceling the related voting agenda, making the possibility of passage before the midterm elections extremely low, and the final decision likely postponed until after the elections.
As the core legislation for US crypto regulation, the split pace between the two chambers and election politics binding means the expectation for enactment within the year is rapidly diminishing.
Meanwhile, El Salvador, the world's first country to make Bitcoin legal tender, has also hit the pause button. Since June 2025, El Salvador has not used public funds to increase BTC holdings, completely halting the previously steady periodic coin purchases. Fiscal constraints and IMF negotiation pressure are the core reasons.
The change in regulatory implementation pace and the exit of national-level buyers inevitably put short-term sentiment under pressure.
$BTC has fallen below 80,000, with the first short-term observation level at 76,000–78,000; if the daily close cannot reclaim this, the next level to watch is 75,000.
$ETH is stuck at the critical retracement level of 2438, with the September 4 low also near 2430; holding this level means consolidation, breaking below points to 2300.
Next week's CPI, the CLARITY bill outcome, and whether the Bank of Japan raises rates will all amplify risk asset volatility. Regardless of the scenario, September should prioritize defense. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 ETH climbed from 2356 to 2530, with short sellers' losses widening, but the price at which bad news can't be dumped is itself the biggest news. Tonight's non-farm payroll data hasn't come out yet, but the market has already priced in early. Is this a rush to get ahead of the pack, or is it betting on a final turnaround? When I watch my account, I'm not just thinking about stopping losses. The most noteworthy thing about this rebound isn't how much ETH has risen, but how it reacts to negative news. In this environment, prices should have shaken weakly long ago, but now it's like stepping on a spring—bad news actually bounces even harder. This kind of insensitivity often means the bears are converging, or funds are picking up in the shadows. What the market is really trading may not be tonight's data itself, but the expectation of "weak data." Last time, the small nonfarm payrolls failed to meet the target; if the large nonfarm payrolls continue to weaken this time, the interest rate path will have to be redrawn, putting pressure on the dollar, and risk assets will be able to breathe a sigh of relief. So this rally now seems to have already moved two-thirds of the script of "data below expectations." But there's an easily overlooked point: if the data is really bad enough to trigger recession fears, the market will trade for safe havens first, not to trade for rate cuts first. BTC and ETH may not benefit immediately; they may first go through a round of pump in sync with US stocks, then discuss subsequent liquidity easing. Between bullish and bearish paths, the difference is not direction, but the specific quality of the data. On the side of capital preference, I can sense the detail that the altcoins follow unevenly; SOL is relatively resistant to declines, but the sector...The moment ten tons of gold were pushed onto the board, there were no flashbulbs. I stared at the 1,056.62-ton arc on the position sheet, hearing not a buy order but the sound of the rook sliding on the stone slab before the king's repositioning.
The incremental increase on September 3 was just ten tons, from 1,046.64 to 1,056.62, like a quiet advance that neither captures the rear nor pressures the knight. Amateur spectators see capital inflow; grandmasters see the first step on the staircase: when that row of pawns silently advances to the seventh rank, each pawn will reveal its promoted fangs. But more noteworthy than this central pawn formation is the flank maneuver—the Dutch central bank secretly moved 86 tons of gold bars from New York and Ottawa, circling half the globe to place them in London. This wasn’t buying jewelry; it was castling: freeing the king from a conspicuous position, then placing the rook on open files where all heavy pieces can immediately launch an attack. They openly stated this is not an increase in holdings; they are moving "tradability" amid the crisis. Translated into chess terms: moving the king only in the endgame is equivalent to handing over a checkmate. True heavy pieces must already be positioned on critical squares before the bell rings.
The market-making hedge layer pointed out by Goldman Sachs is the most silent automatic response I’ve seen in chess books: price rises, buy; price falls, sell. Every fluctuation feels like a forced conversion, reflected back by the system and then amplified. The options market turns signals into echoes, and echoes into new signals driving the next move. So the charges and retreats you see on the screen are half someone playing chess, half the chess playing the person. This action carries no direction; it just adds another powered car to a train already in motion.
The danger in the midgame board is that every piece can become a hero or a deadweight. A 1,056-ton position total is meaningless on paper; what matters is whether these weights can concentrate simultaneously on the same diagonal in the next crisis moment. The options hedging mechanism exposes the opposite quality: it welds charge and retreat into a conjoined entity, so anyone trying to attack proactively finds they’re only pulling the enemy’s pre-set strings. True grandmasters at this stage contract their formation, preserving every piece’s potential mobility, refusing to pay permanent structural damage for a fleeting check.
Look at the XMU that follows closely; its movement is like a congruent shadow of the same game on another board. The central bank’s maneuver is the silent rail, the options market the gravel under the sleepers, and capital flow the whistle on the locomotive. True masters don’t rush to respond to every forced move; they wait for noise cycles to marginally decay, waiting until only the true heavy pieces remain on the board before revealing their reserved passes.
As for those still fixated on the central board, trying to snatch a wave from every round of ups and downs—the entire structure beneath their feet has long been arranged by others to control the endgame. When the real checkmate arrives, you don’t need to look at the white queen scrutinized by countless eyes at the center of the board. The king left its position three moves ago. #goldetfadds10tons$BTC Morning Market Analysis
Current price 79600.
Last night the market quickly dropped to a low of 78650, experienced a sharp spike and pullback, currently in a low-level consolidation after the decline, short-term trend is weak and volatile.
Key Levels
Resistance: First resistance at 80400, strong resistance at 81100
Support: First support at 79000, strong support at 78600
Contract Trading Strategy
Short Position
If a rebound stalls with an upper shadow at 80300-80400, try a small short position; stop loss at 81200; target 79000, if broken effectively target 78600.
If volume increases and price stabilizes above 80400, exit short positions immediately, do not stubbornly hold losses.
Long Position
1. Conservative: On a pullback to the 78600-79000 range with a stop signal, try a small long position; stop loss at 78100; target 80300-80400.
If the price closes below 78600, abandon long positions, short-term uptrend structure fails.
2. Aggressive: After a volume breakout above 80400, chase a small long position; stop loss at 79800; target 81000-81100.
Personal View
Current price 79600 is in the middle of the range, not recommended to open positions directly at this price.
The long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term pullback after a rally, profit-taking pressure causes correction. Must reduce leverage, strictly control position size, avoid heavy bets on data-driven market moves. The market reacted to NFP, but I think traders should be careful about turning one data point into a full bearish thesis.
162K jobs came in stronger than expected, unemployment remained at 4.1%, and September rate-hike expectations strengthened.
That explains why $BTC and $ETH came under pressure.
But the important question isn't what happened today.
It’s whether the macro pressure can actually break the structure.
Next week gives us the answer.
PPI and CPI will be much more important for determining whether inflation is cooling or remaining sticky. Then the FOMC adds another layer to the rate outlook.
If inflation stays hot, Treasury yields continue higher, and financial conditions tighten, BTC could revisit $78.6K.
ETH could also come under pressure around $2,428, with $2,400 becoming the bigger level to defend.
But if CPI surprises to the downside, the entire narrative can change quickly.
Rate-cut expectations could return, yields could ease, and today's NFP-driven weakness could turn into nothing more than a temporary shakeout.
That's why I don't want to chase either direction right now.
Early next week could remain messy.
The cleaner signal comes when the market reacts to CPI.
For me, the key levels are simple:
$BTC → $78.6K
$ETH → $2.4K
Lose them decisively, and the bearish case becomes stronger.
Hold them, and there is still room for the market to recover.
Sometimes the best trade is simply waiting for the market to reveal which narrative is actually winning.
No need to predict everything in advance.The most valuable part of this blueprint is not the load-bearing column called "Transformer," but the entire beam and column system of the plaza—Hugging Face is that open plaza where all structural engineers can freely lay out lines!
The steel price list has been signed: $12.93 billion, of which $11.9 billion is for land transfer fees, plus $1 billion reserved as incentives for the "key position tie beams"—this is using the foundation budget of a super high-rise building to acquire a city's public library! NVDA, the general contractor, is not really interested in those model bookshelves but in the construction code authority of the entire open-source community!
Listen carefully, I have done structural design for thirty years, and the thing I am most wary of is when the client says, "This renovation will absolutely not change the facade." The open ecosystem is the curtain wall system of this building, and CUDA is the core tube buried underground! They promise "no mandatory use of proprietary concrete"—but those in the know understand that when all your load tests, seismic calculations, and wind tunnel tests must go through the general contractor's computational core, you are only one design change away from being locked in!
What’s even more intriguing is the 2027 completion milestone; the project company has reserved a full two years for blueprint review—this has never been a game of financial statements but the load-bearing wall displacement of the entire AI construction industry! Regulatory agencies will review layer by layer whether this "structural reinforcement plan" will cause excessive platform load concentration. Once a hub-level project like Hugging Face is held by a single general contractor, all independent structural engineers connecting in the future will have to re-verify their cantilever plans!
Perhaps the real highlight is not the building height but the foundation—when the raft foundation of the model ecosystem and the pile foundation of the chip cluster start sharing the same geological survey report, those small subcontractors doing secondary structures will have to renegotiate the weld quality of every partition wall! #nvidiahuggingfacedealHistory does not simply repeat itself, but it is always strikingly similar.
In the 2022 Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, BTC fell from 69,000 to 15,000, a drop of 78%. At that time, nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, rate hike bets intensified, and the dollar strengthened. What about now? BTC dropped from 81,378 to 78,610, falling below 80,000, with nonfarm payroll data exceeding expectations and rate hike bets heating up.
What’s different is that this time the BTC-to-gold ratio has risen to a high since January, indicating that BTC is still strong relative to gold.
I’m recovering from a 200,000 U loss. Historical experience tells me: don’t bottom-fish lightly during a rate hike cycle, but also don’t be overly bearish. Now I’m lightly shorting 5,000 U, with a stop loss at 80,000, targeting 79,000–78,600; if it breaks 78,600, I’ll continue holding. Never hold a position without a stop loss. How far do you think this wave can go?
$BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 This is why I’m not rushing to become bearish after the NFP reaction.
The 162K jobs figure came in stronger than expected, unemployment held at 4.1%, and September rate-hike expectations picked up again.
That clearly creates short-term pressure for $BTC and $ETH.
But one economic report doesn't determine the entire market cycle.
The real test comes next week.
PPI and CPI will give us a better read on inflation, while the FOMC could ultimately shape expectations around the path of rates.
If inflation remains sticky and Treasury yields continue climbing, the downside could extend.
For BTC, $78.6K is the level I’m watching closely.
For ETH, $2,428 and especially $2,400 are important areas of defense.
A decisive breakdown would make the bearish structure much more convincing.
But there’s another scenario.
If CPI cools meaningfully and traders start pricing renewed rate-cut expectations, today's NFP-driven weakness could be reversed surprisingly quickly.
So for now, I’m staying cautious rather than blindly bearish.
My expectation is choppy and potentially weak price action early next week, with CPI likely providing the bigger directional catalyst.
Until those major support levels fail, I see this as a correction under pressure not confirmation that the entire bull structure is finished.
Let the data come first. Then let price confirm.
$BTC $ETH