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The storage trio staged a "pin bar" move late at night, violently rallying at the close to recover all losses
On August 31, the storage chip sector experienced a thrilling rollercoaster ride.
In the morning, influenced by a sharp rise in international oil prices and a drop in U.S. stock futures, storage chip giants faced collective pressure before the market opened. The Japanese and Korean markets reacted first, with SK Hynix $SKHYNIX falling more than 4% in early trading. However, a dramatic scene unfolded in the U.S. stock market's final minutes—SanDisk $SNDK surged straight from $1460 to $1566.70 within the last 45 minutes before the close, turning a daily loss into a 5.50% gain, with a trading volume of 23.38 million shares, more than 2.5 times the average volume of recent days. Micron Technology $MU closed up 2.77%, SK Hynix closed up 2.2%, and the storage chain led the semiconductor sector gains overall.
The direct driver of this "pin bar" move was the MSCI global index rebalancing taking effect—SanDisk was officially included in the MSCI World Index, prompting passive index funds to concentrate their buying at the close. On a deeper level, the continuation of the AI storage supercycle, strong expectations for NAND price increases, and fundamental support such as SanDisk and Kioxia's over $31 billion expansion plans collectively form the sector's mid-term positive outlook. By the close, the three major storage giants had fully recovered their intraday losses.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 THE MOST VALUABLE THING IN A BULL MARKET IS NOT PROFIT, BUT THE RIGHT TO KEEP PLAYING
After a cycle of volatility, I realized that a strong portfolio is not one that always increases in value, but one that allows me to maintain the right to choose. I prioritize $BTC, $ETH, $OKB, $SOL, and $DOGE, allocating capital in 3 layers: core for holding, trend for acceleration, and hot positions to take profits when FOMO peaks. No need to put all capital in. Making money is important, but preserving capital to continue generating profits is the long-term strategy Will it backfire? July nonfarm payrolls expected +83k, actual -23k, a gap of -106k. After the Fed's tone, the probability of a rate hike rose from 35% to 60%, but employment has already weakened. Tonight at 22:00 JOLTS kicks off, and this week also includes ADP / initial claims / nonfarm payrolls. No directional bets before the data, holding $78.0k / break to watch $75.0k. After Jackson Hole, the Fed changed the market pricing to hawkish. The probability of a September rate hike rose to 60%, with core PCE at 3.3%, still far above the 2% target. But July nonfarm payrolls were already -23k, unemployment rate 4.1%, behind which is a decline in participation rate—employment weakening and hawkish narrative are inherently contradictory. Four data releases this week: 9/1 JOLTS (June vacancies 7.4M) → 9/2 ADP → 9/3 initial claims → 9/4 August nonfarm payrolls (expected about +65k). If employment continues to weaken, can the Fed's "inflation not done" narrative still support the rate hike pricing? If nonfarm rebounds, the hawkish narrative will be validated, and BTC will find it hard to easily return to 80k. The market is also waiting for answers. BTC $78.6k, down 2.1% from before the tone. OI down 7% over 7 days, funding rate +0.002%, spot volume 1.2x—leverage is decreasing, volume shrinking, a typical "waiting for data" stance. SOL up 5% over 7 days still holding, but I won't chase before the market confirms. My framework is simple: strong nonfarm → Fed gets supportA $2 billion inflow into ETFs—does that definitely mean the bull market is starting? Don't rush to pop the champagne yet.
Recently, ETF data has indeed been very active.
BTC and ETH have been attracting funds in turn, and SOL and XRP have also seen significant inflows. Looking at the numbers alone, it paints a clear picture of "institutions aggressively accumulating."
But here’s the question:
Money is flowing in, so why hasn’t the price soared accordingly?
This is the key point worth pondering now.
The inflow of funds is real, but "inflow" does not equal "immediate price surge." Institutional funds can position themselves through subscriptions, portfolio adjustments, arbitrage, and other methods. The ETF net inflow figure itself cannot be directly equated with an equivalent scale of buy orders appearing in the market.
Especially on August 28, the BTC spot ETF suddenly had a net outflow of about $200 million, interrupting the continuous inflow rhythm for several days, and market sentiment instantly became tense again.
So don’t just focus on the "20 billion inflow" and shout that the bull market is back.
What really matters is: after the funds enter, can they push the price up?
Whether BTC can break above around 80,000 again, and whether ETH can firmly hold above 2,500 again, are the keys to whether the funds have formed effective buying pressure.
If funds keep flowing into ETFs but prices remain stagnant for a long time, it means there is still a tough battle between market absorption and selling pressure.
Numbers can look great, but candlesticks don’t lie.
ETF inflows are worth paying attention to, but don’t take them directly as a pass to price increases.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 In late August, Strategy presented a shocking description to the market in an SEC filing, stating that the "BTC floor price" for its preferred stock STRC is about $13,400. $BTC Currently, Bitcoin is still hovering around $78,000. At first glance, this sounds like a thick safety cushion, but the definition in the document is much narrower: when BTC falls to that level, STRC's coverage is exactly 1x. The company specifically notes that this figure does not constitute claim to Bitcoin reserves, nor does it represent any commitment to repayment or recovery. In other words, it is more like a mathematical reference coordinate than a substantial risk barrier. More noteworthy are the variables that push up the floor price: if the $1.59 billion cash pool is exhausted, the floor price will rise to about $15,313; if all $6.69 billion in assets is diverted without repaying any liabilities, the floor price could approach $21,381. It is clear that $13,400 is just a snapshot at a specific point in time; what truly determines the margin of safety is how Strategy makes trade-offs between different uses of funds. In the same week this document sparked discussion, Strategy quickly completed another notable move. The latest disclosures show that the company raised a net of about $600 million in one week by selling about 4.53 million shares of MSTR common stock. This money was split into four parts: more than half for Bitcoin purchases, about a quarter for repurchasing STRC shares, another $50 million for paying STRC dividends, and the remaining $30 million remainingTo use a poker table analogy, let's talk about today's most counterintuitive scene: the three major stock indexes all closed in the red, yet Tesla bucked the trend with a 5.5% gain, SanDisk rose 5.5%, and SK Hynix gained 2%.
Newbies tend to interpret this divergence as "capital clustering in strong assets" and impulsively chase in; but veterans first break down the structure: is there an independent catalyst for the stock/sector, or is it short-term risk aversion and a bull trap in a weak market liquidity environment? Just like when others fold at the poker table and you get a flush, you still have to judge whether the pot is worth continuing to bet on, rather than blindly betting because of a "pretty hand."
In the US stock market, sectors like the AI chain, robotics, and storage have their own narratives and earnings expectations, so moving against the broader market is not surprising; but if the broader market continues to be pressured by interest rates, employment data, and earnings guidance, it’s hard for isolated strength to go far alone and it tends to amplify volatility. The same applies to $BTC—don’t assume a trend reversal just because of a single rebound candlestick. It’s more reliable to look at overall risk appetite, dollar interest rate expectations, ETF/stablecoin liquidity, and key supports, confirm the big picture before following, and move less if uncertain. Better to earn less for a while than to catch a flying knife or go all-in on a one-sided bet when the big direction is unclear. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Everyone is asking Pharaoh, Bitcoin just touched 81,000, then immediately got hammered back to 77,000, and gold is almost drying up at 4700. When did these two start wearing the same pants? What's going on in the market? Bitcoin touched 81,237 on August 25, hitting a three-month high, then was smashed back to around 77,000 to consolidate. It violently surged from 62,000 to 81,000, gaining 27% in a week, a historic-level increase. But between 80,000 and 82,000, there's a pile of trapped positions waiting to be freed, with bulls and bears tugging at the 80,000 threshold like Pharaoh playing tug-of-war with camels in the desert—neither side letting go. The real explosion isn't the price, but the "character" has changed. Grayscale data shows Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq dropped from 60% to 33%, while its correlation with gold soared from near zero at the start of the year to over 50%, the second highest in history. The head of Grayscale research said— the market is refocusing on Bitcoin's scarcity, monetary independence, and store of value attributes. Behind this is one thing: the US debt ceiling at 40 trillion. On August 18, US Treasury debt officially surpassed 40 trillion, with interest alone at 1 trillion per year. Basent announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases, which the market directly interpreted as "US dollar credit is about to collapse." With nowhere else to put money, gold and Bitcoin are being frantically bought as "assets the government can't reach." Gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs absorbed a combined 7 billion USD in five days, setting a record. Gold rose 15% in August, Bitcoin rose 28%. But on Friday at Jackson Hole, Waller dropped a hawkish tone, directly smashing the market. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September surged to 62.6% The Rise of TRON: Carving a New Path and Breaking Through with Stablecoins
In an era of fierce competition among public blockchains, TRON did not directly challenge Ethereum's DeFi developer ecosystem. Instead, it forged a completely differentiated path to become the world's most important high-speed highway for stablecoin settlements.
Founded in 2017, TRON was initially controversial. After its mainnet launch, it did not replicate Ethereum's strategy of heavily supporting DeFi and NFTs. Instead, it capitalized on Ethereum's high fees and transfer congestion by focusing on speed and extremely low fees. With DPoS consensus producing blocks every 3 seconds and negligible transfer costs, it became highly suitable for high-frequency stablecoin circulation.
The real turning point for TRON's takeoff was TRC-20 USDT.
A large number of exchanges and cross-border users required low-cost USDT transfers. Ethereum's on-chain USDT transfer fees were prohibitively high, so TRON naturally absorbed this demand. The circulation scale of TRC-20 USDT expanded rapidly, on-chain account numbers surged, and massive transactions flooded TRON. It did not rely on complex DApps but supported a huge amount of on-chain data through stablecoin circulation.
The acquisition of BitTorrent brought TRON a massive external user base, combined with global marketing expansion, resulting in very high penetration in emerging markets. However, its weaknesses are also quite prominent.
DPoS delegated proof-of-stake has only 27 super representatives producing blocks, resulting in decentralization far below Ethereum's level. The DeFi and innovative application ecosystem is weak, with a large portion of on-chain activity coming from stablecoin transfers. Native blockbuster DApps are scarce, and the narrative heavily depends on stablecoin business.$CORE exchange has closed the deposit channel and will reopen deposits and withdrawals on September 3.
This is an extremely high-risk point. Once a large amount of tokens are unlocked on-chain and batch transferred into the exchange through reopened deposits and withdrawals, selling pressure will be released in concentration, very likely triggering a new round of sharp decline.
Currently, the market itself is already burdened with massive unlocked selling pressure, with heavy trapped positions above.
September 3 is the risk test window; a flood of tokens entering the exchange marks the beginning of the downturn. $BTC consolidates at a high level, with three forces pulling against each other
After a sharp surge, Bitcoin entered a high-level oscillation. The early session retracement did not break below last Friday's low of 76800. I am lightly going long, focusing on whether 79500 can be effectively broken in the short term. Currently, the market is a three-way tug of war, and the trend direction is still undecided.
On the macro side, there is clear suppression. Walsh released a hawkish signal at Jackson Hole, emphasizing the unwavering 2% inflation target. The market's expectation for a rate hike in September has risen, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening simultaneously, continuously suppressing risk asset prices. Institutional funds have started to diverge; spot BTC ETF inflows ended a nine-day streak, with a single-day outflow of $201.9 million. However, the overall net inflow in August still hit a new high for the year. The single outflow is more of a profit-taking move and does not indicate a trend reversal.
On the other hand, geopolitical tensions provide safe-haven support. The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with gold rising about 10% in August. Some safe-haven funds have diverted into $BTC, propping up support below.
This kind of oscillating market with bulls and bears battling means technical support can be broken by news at any time, so it is only suitable for light probing positions. Macro headwinds, institutional rotation, and geopolitical safe-haven effects offset each other, likely leading to continued back-and-forth consolidation before a major catalyst emerges. Avoid heavy bets on a one-sided move. Holding support is what gives value to the rebound battle.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Just checked the latest situation of $HYPE, sharing an update with everyone～
This recent surge has been really strong. At the end of August, it directly surged to a historical high around $86.7, with market cap solidly entering the top ten. Although there was a huge token unlock of 14.18M tokens (worth about $1.2 billion) on the 29th, the market surprisingly digested it well, and the price is still stable, fluctuating between $80-$84, showing strong overall resilience.
The big picture is also quite supportive: Trump previously mentioned that the CFTC is pushing for Hyperliquid’s compliance to enter the US market, and recently there are rumors of cooperation talks with Kraken’s parent company. Additionally, after AQAv2 went live, $USDC reserve yields started to be used for targeted buyback and burn of HYPE, and institutions are continuously increasing their positions (for example, Hyperliquid Strategies’ $PURR HYPE treasury has already expanded to over 29 million tokens). The HIP-4 prediction market just launched, making the ecosystem increasingly lively.
There might be some short-term unlocking pressure (the development team’s portion unlocks on September 6), but overall the fundamentals seem to be strengthening, and any pullback feels more like an opportunity. What do you all think about this wave? Continue holding or wait and see first? #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #OKX星球话题来啦 OKB showed strength again today, $OKB is trading at 111 dollars, +2%, making it one of the strongest among mainstream coins. The real big move is on August 13th—OKX will burn 65.25 million OKB (worth about 7.3 billion dollars), permanently locking 21 million total supply, making it "absolutely scarce" like Bitcoin; X Layer will upgrade to 5000 TPS, $OKB becomes the only fuel token on the entire network, and OKTChain is effectively sentenced to death. This is no longer just a platform token, it’s an "exchange infrastructure stock." It rose from 47 to 140 then pulled back to 110, now digesting profit-taking. I previously thought breaking 100 would be a big deal, but I got proven wrong—I like this kind of slap in the face, OKX, don’t stop with your ecosystem benefits.
Hotspot Analysis (Rewrite the System)
OKEx’s recent marketing is also intense: "Rewrite the System" calls for rewriting the rules across the network, Dev Day 2026 hackathon online in September, finals in Singapore in October, plus 15 X-Perps contracts and trading bots launched. Looking calmly, this wave for OKB is a "deflation + narrative" double hit; after on-chain whales transferred tokens to the burn address, no sell-off was seen, which is the real support. Risk point: on 8/18, the contract’s minting rights were removed, so after the positive news is realized, without new catalysts in the short term, it’s prone to sideways movement. My position logic: 100 is the psychological line, 90 is the strong bottom, sell if it breaks below. Brothers, is this time for real or just another pump and dump? I bet on the former.$xSNDK has risen for five consecutive days, with a premium already at 4.2%. Brothers who want to buy, be aware of the risk of premium decline.
1. The story behind $SNDK's rise is that Goldman Sachs set its target price at 2200, so it has climbed from 1420 to the current level.
2. The price structure is very healthy; with the rise so far, the RSI is only 59.3. It is not overbought, which means there is still significant room for growth when sentiment improves.
3. In this cycle, NAND storage has been overshadowed by HBM as the main theme, so SanDisk's real growth depends on the Q3 earnings report (early November).
My thinking: Before the US stock market opens on the 2nd, the premium may rise again, but it will most likely fall back to the 1% range within 7 days. It is not recommended to chase if you have no position; if you have a position, you can wait for the premium to converge before selling. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 There are really very few people now who can stockpile a whole $BTC.
It's not that awareness suddenly improved, but the price threshold has shifted to a higher level. Two years ago, at over twenty thousand dollars, you could grit your teeth and still hope to accumulate through dollar-cost averaging; now, near seventy-eight thousand dollars, which converts to nearly five to six hundred thousand RMB, for ordinary salaried workers, after deducting rent, mortgage, and living expenses, the remaining cash flow is very limited. If you really try to save a few thousand each month to accumulate, the cycle is too long, and in the meantime, you have to endure volatility, unexpected expenses, and the psychological torment of "please don't rise anymore."
Even if you happen to have cash equivalent to a down payment, whether you dare to convert it all into BTC is another matter. If you really convert it, most people can't sleep well; a deep correction easily shakes them out emotionally. Ordinary people who can hold onto a full coin basically fall into two categories: those who entered early at low cost and survived the cycles, or those with strong cash flow who treat BTC as a long-term reserve. Others mostly wait for a pullback, buy in small amounts, or turn to other arenas.
Not being able to stockpile a whole coin doesn't mean there's no way to participate. Small positions in highly elastic assets, spreading out over time, is more realistic than betting on saving up a whole coin from salary. But the focus this round is not a get-rich narrative; it's about surviving, preserving chips, and not getting wiped out by contracts and leverage. Having a position and patience already beats many people. $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Currently, $ETH is consolidating around $2450, with clear divergence in capital flows.
On one side, leveraged longs are under pressure. A well-known address holds nearly $100 million nominal value in 25x ETH long positions. Although it has returned to floating profits, the profit buffer is thin, and a slight price pullback will cause discomfort again, indicating that high-leverage longs are not stable. On the other side, on-chain and exchange flow data show that seller supply is not light: suspected old coins/institutional addresses are preparing to dispose of about 154,300 ETH, some of which have already been transferred to multiple exchanges. Their cost basis is around $1700, leaving significant floating profit space and objective motivation to realize gains; additionally, after whale consolidation, small batches are being tested on exchanges, which will influence short-term sentiment.
But buyers are not absent either. Treasury/strategic holdings continue to increase against the trend. One of the largest public long holders keeps buying and has accumulated close to 5.9 million ETH, just about 100,000 ETH short of the rumored "5% ETH" target; however, its average cost is around $3350, bearing considerable unrealized losses, more consistent with a long-term position logic rather than short-term price support.
Therefore, the $2450 level looks more like a chip exchange zone: above, it depends on whether selling pressure can be continuously absorbed; below, watch for support between $2350–$2400 and BTC rhythm. Only a volume-backed break above $2500 will signal strength, while a drop below $2400 will continue to test long leverage and floating chips. Avoid heavy contract positions; phased spot buying is safer. $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 [Morning Brief] Overnight was neither an offensive market nor a classic safe-haven market: the US-Iran clash pushed oil prices higher, rate hikes outweighed geopolitical buying, and gold and US stocks both declined. BTC did not collapse, and all three shifted from bullish in August to "resonant gold stock pullback, BTC mild divergence." [What Happened Overnight] (1) Over the weekend, US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers near Hormuz, while Iran retaliated against US military bases in Jordan, marking the first direct clash in nearly a month. (2) Sharp oil price surges heightened inflation concerns, coupled with the aftermath of hawkish Walsh remarks, significantly revised up expectations for September rate hikes; US Treasury yields remain strong, and the dollar remains strong. (3) BTC: Bearish news (pullback from highs, but did not crash due to risk aversion); Gold: Bearish (interest rates beating safe-haven buying); US stocks: negative (oil prices + valuations hitting both sides). [Watch closely today] Watch Fed Governor Barr's speech (East 9:05, Beijing time 21:05, before US US open): If it's as hawkish as Walsh, BTC, gold, and US stocks are all bearish; If emphasis is placed on data and downplaying the September rate hike, all three are bullish and recovering. [Overview of the Three Asset Bulls and Bears] BTC: Neutral — The de-dollarization narrative is interrupted by rate hike pricing, but in geopolitical shocks, it is relatively resilient and lacks new catalysts both sides. Gold: Bearish — Rate hikes and real interest rates dominate, Middle East fire failed to ignite safe-haven buying. US stocks: Bearish — Oil prices rising and warming points in rate hike pricing make high valuations more sensitive to interest rates. [Will there be any linkage? What if it falls?] Right now, the overall direction is under pressure in the same direction, with partial divergence: yellowDehydrated overnight market, stripping away noise, focusing only on the core information that truly affects capital flow.👇 ☀️ One-sentence core summary: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (PHLX) plunged for two consecutive days (-3.47%/-2.92%), Nvidia dropped over 7% in two days, AI hardware is the epicenter of this round of correction. BTC, however, held above 78K despite the sharp drop in the semiconductor index; crypto did not follow the semiconductor sell-off for the first time — is this a "decoupling" signal or the calm before the storm? Tonight's US stock market will reveal the answer. The A-share market already showed independent movement yesterday (Shanghai Composite +0.86%), and today faces a real test with two consecutive declines in the semiconductor index. Crude oil surged 3.86%, with style shifting towards defensive/inflation trades. Global assets are moving in different directions. 🇺🇸 US stock market recap (Monday close, verified): Dow -0.70% at 53,185.90, Nasdaq -0.12% at 26,370.89, PHLX -2.92% at 11,535, Nvidia -3.16% at 220.78, VIX 15.08 (+3.86%). The PHLX fell sharply for two consecutive days (last Friday -3.47%, Monday -2.92%), Nvidia also declined for two days, AI hardware is the epicenter of this correction. VIX rose slightly but did not spiral out of control; VIX below 15 still indicates "caution rather than panic." 💡 Uncle's observation: US stocks weakened after the Fed's hawkish stance, but the decline was manageable (Dow less than 1%, Nasdaq only 0.12%). The real sell-off was concentrated in semiconductors — the sector highly correlated with crypto and A-share semiconductors. 🪙 Crypto｜Under the sharp drop in the semiconductor index💥 The current market conditions suggest that the top of the first target is likely to rise above the downside prospects, although the most likely scenario involves a phase of deep consolidation between the two levels before a decision ✈️, the currency's rapid jump from the $58,500 zones to the $78.500 range is due to key catalysts that include the massive infusion of liquidity through ETFs, the weakness of the dollar index, the improving US regulatory environment, as well as the economic operations.#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温
Over the weekend, the US and Iran exchanged missile fire in the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude oil to rally 2.7% to close at $90.49, reaching a nearly two-week high. The rapid surge in oil prices has quickly ignited inflation expectations, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September jumping from 48% last week to 58.7%. Under this dual pressure, BTC fell below $78,000, hitting a low of 77,396, down 0.3% in 24 hours; ETH was at 2444, down 0.7%.
Notably, this round saw BTC decouple unusually from gold and oil prices, with funds not flowing into safe havens but instead following interest rate expectations — reflecting that the market still prices in "tightening" rather than "geopolitics" as the main theme. How long can this "war premium" last? Currently, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply dropped to only 5 vessels per day. If there is no substantial supply disruption afterward, historical experience shows that pulse-like price spikes usually retrace more than half within 2-4 weeks after the event subsides. In the short term, keep a close eye on Friday's nonfarm payroll data, which is the real litmus test. $ETH ETH 2474: ETF frenzy buying, price lying flat
Last week spot ETF net inflow was 697 million, a record for the year, with 10 consecutive days of net buying. Institutions are going crazy.
But the price is stuck at 2470, pushed up to 2512 then smashed down, dipped to 2394 then pulled back. On-chain Gas is only 0.1-0.2, as quiet as a bear market.
Watch the 2490-2510 resistance zone closely; only holding above 2500 gives hope, if it can't hold 2440 it will retest 2400. ETF buying vs on-chain quietness, conflicting signals with moderate direction.$BTC is repeatedly tugging near $78,000, with both bulls and bears waiting for the next move
After Bitcoin fell back from above $81,000, it once dropped to around $76,800, and now it has returned to the $78,000 range.
Short-term resistance remains significant.
After a hawkish speech by Powell, the market quickly priced in a September rate hike, at one point approaching 60%, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthening, putting clear pressure on risk assets.
But interestingly, BTC has not experienced a sustained crash.
From August 24 to 28, the U.S. spot BTC ETF still recorded a net inflow of about $924 million, indicating that spot funds have not fully withdrawn, which is an important reason why support repeatedly appears near $77,000.
So the current market situation is actually simple:
On the upside, watch if $80,000–$81,000 can be retaken;
On the downside, watch if the $77,000 area can continue to hold.
In the short term, focus on ETFs and capital flows; in the medium term, watch inflation data and the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision.
Now is not the time to guess the direction; wait for the market to choose its own path. Hot Topic Narrative Thermometer: Layer 2 Rises to Boiling Point, Meme Warms Up, Old Volatility Begins to Cool On the morning of September 1 Beijing time, $BTC rose 0.97% in 24 hours, $ETH rose 1.63%, respectively, with the two showing 0.61% and 0.69% from their intraday highs. The price environment in mainstream markets is recovering, and ETH has started to outperform BTC, but their 24-hour trading volumes are only 0.83 times and 0.92 times their 7-day averages, respectively. This indicates that market sentiment has somewhat warmed up, but there has yet to be a full-scale volume increase. Against this backdrop, the hotspot has not spread evenly, but has formed several areas with significant temperature differences: Layer 2 has become the strongest sector, with some highly volatile coins continuing to heat up; DeFi and Meme have seen partial recovery, with mainstream public blockchains generally turning positive but lacking volume; Some previously active coins have started to cool down rapidly. 🔥 Boiling Point Area: Layer 2 Suddenly Becomes the Market Focus $ARB is the clearest hotspot core of this round. It rose 35.67% in 24 hours, 15.53% in the past 4 hours, and still up 5.89% in the past 1 hour; Trading volume reached 8.36 times the 7-day average, and the price was only 0.42% below the intraday high of 0.11618. This set of data meets several conditions: positive trend across multiple cycles, significantly increased trading volume, price close to intraday high, over 34 percentage points ahead of both BTC and ETH, ARB does not rely solely on 24-hour gains to stay at the top, but also has short-term momentum and trading activityIn August, Bitcoin $BTC surged from over 60,000 to 81,000 in one go, then fell back to around 78,000 by month-end. Many people ask: Is this a real reversal, or just another fake breakout? To start with the conclusion: it's not fake, but not that impressive either. The driving force behind this wave isn't some mysterious major player, but three factors stacked together: First, the US Treasury suddenly ramped up long-term bond buybacks, which the market interpreted as "suppressing yields and increasing liquidity," causing gold and Bitcoin to rise together. Second, spot ETFs were buying real money, with a net inflow of over $3 billion in August and nine consecutive days of gains in between. Although 200 million was outflowed on the 28th, overall gains were still high. Third, regulatory expectations eased a bit, and the CLARITY Act was put on the agenda, so institutions felt a bit more relieved. Plus, after Strategy was dormant for two months, it started buying again, acquiring over 4,600 coins in a week. Saylor immediately said, "We're back." Whales are accumulating, while retail investors are exiting. The structure is very similar to several previous bottoms. But don't get too excited too soon. The real competitor isn't on the market—it's the Federal Reserve. New Chairman Kevin Warsh recently spoke tough at Jackson Hole: inflation hasn't come down yet, 2% is a hard target, and rate hikes may be possible if necessary. The market immediately raised the probability of a rate hike in September, and Bitcoin pulled back from 81,000 to around 76,000. So the current situation is very tangled: on one side, institutions are buying, major on-chain players are hoarding, regulatory expectations are improving; on the other side, the interest rate environment is unfavorable, 9Trump threatens a "severe strike"—just hot air to support the market again?
Trump just announced there will "definitely be a response" to Iran's missile attack, vowing to "strike them hard." As soon as the news broke, the market immediately tensed—oil prices jumped, and BTC fluctuated around $77,000.
But looking back at this round of US-Iran tensions, Trump's "harsh words" often turn out to be all talk and no action: loudly threatening on one hand, while emphasizing "no large-scale military action" on the other. It feels more like "bluffing pressure" rather than full-scale war.
Impact on crypto:
In the short term, the bluster triggers risk-off sentiment, putting pressure on BTC; if it’s just verbal responses without real action, sentiment will recover and BTC will rebound. If it really escalates, oil prices will soar → inflation expectations rise → rate hike concerns intensify → BTC will continue to decline.
Currently, the market leans toward the former—bad news is dense but prices haven’t collapsed, and after continuous ETF outflows, BTC still hovers near $77,000.
In a nutshell: Trump’s bluster makes BTC jittery. Once the shoe drops, the direction will be clear. No guessing or gambling, wait for support confirmation.
$BTC $ETH $META reached a lawsuit settlement of up to $18 billion, following which the extreme compensation risk was resolved. The removal of tail-end uncertainties directly restored risk appetite in the tech sector, prompting some cautious funds to return to growth positions. If the macro liquidity environment remains stable, the sentiment recovery is expected to continue transmitting to related tech assets. However, if subsequent compliance policies tighten and suppress long-term profit expectations, the rebound pace may be hindered. Future focus will be on monitoring updates to industry regulatory rules.
#Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal收跌近13% #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 #Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块The main theme of the market these past two days is interesting: macro pressure remains, but the performance of different assets is starting to diverge significantly. $XAU Gold: Double pressure from interest rates and the dollar Recently, gold has continued to be affected by the strengthening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, temporarily falling back to recent lows. However, looking at overall performance in August, gold still recorded a monthly gain close to 9%, so it now feels more like a high-level digestion rather than a complete trend reversal. After entering September, U.S. employment and manufacturing data will be released intensively, prompting the market to reassess the Fed's policy path. Today's focus is on the ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings data, and Friday's nonfarm payroll report — these data points could amplify volatility in the dollar, gold, and risk assets. $BICO: Events Trigger Retreat, True Test of Sustaining Progress BICO previously gained attention due to trading pair incidents, but as the heat fades, short-term funds naturally start to cool down. Now, more important than "can it suddenly pull another bar?" is: after the price pulls back, is there genuine buying support? If there is only news stimulus without sustained trading volume to support it, then after the hype fades, prices often find new support. $OKB: After a sharp rise, the chip digestion phase begins. After a rapid rise in the early stage, OKB is currently more like a sideways consolidation. The long-term narratives of fixed supply, X Layer ecosystem, and gas attributes have not fundamentally changed, but the short-term lack of new strong catalysts means the cost-effectiveness of continuing to chase the rally is not high. If$BTC holds at 78,000, but $ETH breaks below 2,450 — this round of the market is starting to diverge
BTC briefly dropped to around 77,000 yesterday, then climbed back above 78,000 today. ETH wasn’t so lucky, hitting a low of 2,394 this morning and currently at 2,471. BTC can recover after a drop, but ETH can’t — capital is flowing from altcoins to the big coin, with BTC’s market dominance rising to 59.75%.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $437 million, with $298 million from long positions, and 108,000 people liquidated. ETH is the hardest hit, with single-coin liquidations exceeding $100 million, and longs accounting for $71.73 million. Those long on ETH have been washed out the hardest this round.
Regarding ETFs, last week Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $924.5 million, and Ethereum ETFs net inflows of $815.7 million. Institutions are still buying, but on August 28 there was a single-day outflow of $200 million. Capital is flowing in, but confidence is wavering.
Macro pressure hasn’t eased. The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.76%, and the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 60%. BTC was hammered down from 81,000 to 77,000 just on one comment from Powell.
At the 78,000 level, bulls and bears are both probing. ETH’s rebound is more driven by short covering than new capital entering. Don’t rush to bottom-fish; wait for the direction.At 22:00 last night, the U.S. will release the July JOLTS. BTC was around $78,800 this morning, up only about 0.2% in 24 hours. This calmness easily makes people focus only on the "number of job openings."
I look at two more lines: hires and quits rate. In June, job openings were about 7.4 million, hires about 5.3 million, quits about 3.2 million, with a quit rate of 2.0%. Job openings are only recorded on the last day of the month; hires and quits cover the entire month. If openings fall but hires and quits remain steady, the labor market looks more like it's cooling down slowly. If all three weaken together and layoffs rise again, market concerns about the economy will deepen.
After the data is released, I first look at the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, then at BTC spot trading. The first candlestick within minutes can easily mix expectation gaps and leverage liquidations, and drawing conclusions chasing it usually comes at a high cost.
Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, OKX. Personal record, not investment advice.
$BTC #macrodataWoke up early this morning, and last night US storage stocks surged against the trend. SanDisk closed up 5.5%, topping the trading volume chart; Micron rose nearly 3%, SK Hynix, Qualcomm, and Nvidia all rose across the board.
I've always been bullish on storage and have consistently bought a little when prices drop. At least in the current AI environment, this strategy is sound.
Why is storage so resilient?
First, the earnings reports: SanDisk's Q4 revenue surged 51% quarter-over-quarter, with price increases as the core driver. Goldman Sachs even set a target price of $1875, forecasting EPS to quintuple over the next three years.
Second, the price hike wave is spreading. China Jushi Electronics raised prices by 15% to 20% in September. Samsung is cooperating with Nvidia to develop HBM4E. The narrative of high-end storage shortages ranges from SK Hynix CEO's "2030" timeline to storage module manufacturers' "at least 2028"—the whole industry shares this tone.
Third, capital is rotating within the chip sector. Stocks like optical communications and Marvell, which had large gains earlier, were hit, while money is moving into storage, which has the strongest price hike logic and recently validated performance.
To be clearer, interest rates hang like a knife over valuations, but storage is supported by real price increases and shortages, making it the most resilient and counter-trend rising sector in chips.
Broadcom's earnings report is coming up next. Whether this chip rally will differentiate or continue to spread, let's first see its performance.
Personally, I still stick to buying some when prices drop.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 There's nothing much to worry about this week; everyone's eyes are fixed on the same thing—the nonfarm payroll data on Friday.
This is the last employment report before the September interest rate decision, and the market is waiting for it to provide direction. Simply put, the data's quality directly determines how rate cut expectations will move, and the current price of the big coin is entirely hanging on this expectation.
There are roughly three scenarios:
If the data exceeds expectations and is good, then the urgency for rate cuts diminishes, and it might even be interpreted as the rate hike cycle not being over yet. The big coin will likely dip to 75,000 or even 72,000; if the data is mediocre and meets expectations, it will continue to hover around 78,000, with neither bulls nor bears able to take control; conversely, if the data is very poor, rate cut expectations will surge, and the big coin could rally to 82,000.
Right now, the market is oscillating around 78,000, neither advancing nor retreating—in short, just waiting for Friday's data to be released.
Ethereum remains consistently volatile; it bounces higher than anyone when good news comes and falls harder than anyone when bad news hits. Just wait around 2,480 and don't rush to act.
As for stocks like SKHYNIX, don't try to apply the big coin logic rigidly. It not only depends on macro interest rates but also on how funds rotate within the AI sector—sometimes poor nonfarm data won't make it rise, and good data won't necessarily make it fall; it all depends on how the market prices the sentiment at that moment.
Before the data comes out, don't guess the direction blindly; wait patiently and follow the signals once the cards are revealed. Guessing right is luck; guessing wrong costs real money and isn't worth it.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 I believe the probability of a Fed rate hike in September is below 15%, currently priced at 50%. This probability will change after the non-farm payroll data is released; if the data is not overheated, then I think the chance of a rate hike this month is below 10%. Against this backdrop, taking SanDisk as an example, I think it is in a "hesitant rise" phase during this period. Walsh's style is to let the market self-adjust and digest, letting the market work; when intervention is needed, they will act decisively. They are more focused on judging whether the market can self-correct and at what point intervention is necessary. $BTC $SNDK Bitcoin is around 78,520; the 80,000 level is now an unattainable luxury. Short-term resistance is expected between 80,000 and 80,500, which was the position where last week's long positions got trapped. The first support below is at 78,000, then 77,000; the real watershed is near 75,500. Yi Lihua says a Bitcoin pullback to 75,500 is an opportunity. Jiang Zhuoer says BTC is facing its first test since the rise and has already reduced his ETH position by 50%. These two veterans, one bullish and one bearish, indicate that this level is a place both sides must take seriously. In the short term, Bitcoin has failed twice to test the 50-week moving average, with bears holding the initiative, but the ETF's net inflow base from last week remains intact. It is highly likely that before next week's nonfarm payrolls, the price will consolidate between 77,000 and 80,000.
ETH has lost both the 2,500 and 2,450 thresholds. The staking side is still bottlenecked; Ethereum's staking waiting period exceeds 36 days, losing over $350,000 in rewards daily, resulting in low capital entry efficiency, which is an invisible bearish factor sentiment-wise. Jiang Zhuoer's 50% ETH position reduction also added fuel to the market. On the flip side, Tom Lee just said ETH has four major catalysts this year. Last week, ETH's ETF net inflow was 824 million, even stronger than BTC, with BlackRock's ETH A leading at 567 million. This capital foundation is genuine. If 2,450 breaks, look to 2,380; if 2,380 breaks, look to 2,300. Only reclaiming 2,500 above will mark a stop to the decline. ETH is now watching Bitcoin's mood; only if Bitcoin stabilizes will ETH dare to rebound. Currently, ETH prices fluctuate between $2,450 and $2,480, rebounding about 30% from the low in August, reaching the highest level since January this year, but still down over 45% from the August 2025 ATH (about $4,950), with a weak year-to-date performance. The market is shifting from "weak prices" to "structural supply-demand rebalancing." Here is the core analysis. 1. Institutional Funds: ETFs Become the Strongest Buyer US spot Ethereum ETFs saw the strongest inflows of the year in late August: 9–10 consecutive trading days with net inflows, totaling about $142 million to $166 million, with a single-day peak exceeding $225 million. BlackRock ETHA contributed over 70% (about $1 billion+), almost "buying the entire streak." Cumulative net inflows have exceeded $1.2 billion, with AUM about $1.55 billion. This stands in stark contrast to Bitcoin ETFs—BTC funds saw net outflows during the same period. Institutions are repricing ETH as an "interest-bearing infrastructure asset" rather than a purely risk asset. 2. Tightening Supply: Corporate Coin Hoarding + Staking Wave Tom Lee's BitMine continues to accumulate funds aggressively, purchasing 53,501 ETH in the latest week, bringing total holdings to about 5.9 million (about 4.9% of total supply), of which over 85% have been staked, with estimated annualized staking yields exceeding $330 million. Meanwhile, staking across the network remains high, but there is a clear "activation bottleneck"—over 2 million ETH queued to enter, with an average delay of about 36 daysLast week's ETF inflow numbers mostly saw "money is coming," but I focused on another detail. Guess who quietly caught those funds when BTC's continuous inflows suddenly stopped? Last week, crypto spot ETFs attracted over $2 billion, BTC took $924 million, ETH $824 million, SOL and XRP also added $153 million and $110 million respectively. Looking at the total volume alone, it's indeed the appetite that only a bull market can have. But there's a little tail most people have overlooked: on August 28, BTC ETFs ended a nine-day streak of net inflows, with $201.9 million flowing out that day. On the same day, ETH, SOL, and XRP were still flowing in. This isn't money leaving the circle; it's more like money changing seats. My understanding is that the market is shifting from a "certainty premium" to a "resilience preference." BTC was previously considered the safest entry point, but once its inflows start to slow down, those chasing higher volatility naturally flow to higher-beta targets like ETH and SOL. This is not bearish on BTC, but rather a signal of rising risk appetite. From the perspective of derivatives, this rotation often comes with a hidden risk: when funds spread from mainstream leaders to the periphery, it usually means leverage is quietly accumulating. If the funding rates for SOL and XRP perpetual contracts start to rise, be alert to the possibility of short-term market squeezesThese days I have seen a particularly schizophrenic scene.
On one side, Federal Reserve Chair Powell is hawkish: inflation is too high, rate hikes are possible, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.75%, and the market is on edge.
On the other side, the US Treasury Department announced that starting September 9, it will at least double the repurchase scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds. What is a repurchase? It means the Treasury is spending real money to buy back its long-term bonds from the market, supporting and injecting liquidity into long-term debt.
One side is tightening liquidity, the other is loosening it. One side demands money to be more expensive, the other is spending money to take over long-term bonds.
What does this look like? Like a person shouting about losing weight while stuffing braised pork into their mouth, and explaining this as "structural weight loss."
Why is this happening? The US fiscal hole is too large; the primary deficit ranks first among developed countries, and fewer people are buying long-term bonds at auctions. If the Treasury doesn’t support, the long-term bonds will collapse; if Powell isn’t hawkish, inflation expectations will spiral. Each department is trying to save its own fire.
The market already gave the answer in August: BTC rose 23%, gold rose 9%, Nasdaq only rose 4%. Capital is voting with its feet—trading currency depreciation. Rate hikes are short-term pain; debt is a long-term terminal illness. The market is currently buying the "terminal illness" side.
Don’t be scared by a day of hawkish speeches, nor be dazzled by a day of sharp rallies. It’s more useful to see clearly who is printing money, who is borrowing money, and who is defaulting than to just watch the K-line.The longer you stay in the crypto circle, the more you realize that various objective data are far more valuable as references than subjective emotions.
After reviewing multiple market indicators this morning, I have a rough judgment of the current market situation. BlackRock's IBIT continues to accumulate chips, having purchased a total of 13,000 BTC in the past seven days. Meanwhile, the selling pressure from GBTC has almost been exhausted. It is clear that institutional funds are genuinely positioning themselves, providing some bottom support at the current price level.
However, support does not mean the market will immediately start a sharp rally.
Exchange wallets still hold a large amount of tokens, which represent potential selling pressure that could flood the market at any time.
The greed and fear index has dropped to 61 from last week's 73, but it remains in the greed zone, indicating that many retail investors still have a mentality of chasing highs.
Many people see ETF funds continuously flowing in and firmly believe the market will soon hit new highs. But it is important to distinguish that institutions are long-term investors and will not engage in short-term price pumping. Continuous institutional buying and short-term price increases are two completely different matters.
Overall, the current market lacks the driving force for a deep sell-off, and there is also insufficient momentum for a breakout upward.
Sideways oscillation will be the main theme, with occasional spikes to shake out weak holders.
On the spot side, continue to hold mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, and $OKB that you believe in, and just be patient $TRUMP #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 The ONDO research report was banned, but it doesn't matter, these few charts can briefly explain it. Ondo's underlying business has already completed early commercial validation and should no longer be simply classified as a "pure concept RWA project." The strongest business evidence comes from Ondo Stocks: approximately $1B TVL and about $27B cumulative trading volume prove that the market is willing to actually use tokenized securities. The ONDO Token and Ondo company are not the same asset: there is still a clear gap between TVL, revenue, and token value. The real tenfold logic comes from "RWA infrastructure + token value capture," not just pure TVL growth. In the $0.30–0.40 range, ONDO is more suitable for participation with small positions, long cycles, and phased accumulation; if the future value capture mechanism is implemented, the odds will significantly improve; if the business continues to grow but token economics do not improve, valuation expectations should be lowered. The negative impact of the interest rate hike has just been digested, and the data this week is so dense it feels suffocating. #EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Wash's policy stance is being tested
Overall judgment: this week will see high-level oscillation with a bearish bias:
$BTC is most likely to repeatedly fluctuate between 76,000 and 81,000;
SOL/ETH will have limited downside;
$OKB will be the most stable among my holdings;
HYPE will definitely have a panic sell-off before the 6th, keep holding short positions;
xStocks will follow the US stock market, but since the US market is closed this week, trading volume will shrink.
1. This week's dense events: last night ISM + JOLTS, Wednesday ADP private employment, Thursday Challenger + ISM services + Waller speech, Friday non-farm payrolls.
The most significant is the non-farm payrolls; the market hopes it will be weak to open the door for rate cuts, but also fears it will be strong, confirming rate hikes.
2. On the 6th, $HYPE will unlock 9.92 million tokens, valued at $589 million, which is a major negative. The 30-day buyback hedge logic before unlocking is directly broken by this.
3. On the 15th to 16th, FOMC, and on the 15th, the Senate vote on the "Clear Act"—the key moments in September are all in these two weeks. Positioning early is a gamble; chasing highs early is catching a flying knife.#Meta stock price rises after massive settlement, risk pricing reassessed
Meta settled the class action lawsuit on teen addiction for up to $18 billion, ending years of sky-high claims. The extreme risk, originally up to 1.4 trillion, is completely lifted, and the news has driven the stock price to rise against the trend.
The settlement cost is controllable, and the market is beginning to reprice the tail risks of tech stocks, significantly easing capital concerns.
BTC and ETH are not directly affected; the main market trend still follows the Federal Reserve's liquidity expectations.
In the short term, this benefits the sentiment of the US AI tech sector, indirectly boosting the slight recovery of crypto tech concept tokens.
Note, the settlement does not mean all regulatory risks are over; subsequent internet compliance policies still deserve attention. Do not blindly chase hype targets.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. The geopolitical black swan has once again caught the crypto market off guard. The US military struck Iran's Larak Island missile site, Tehran then launched missiles at US bases, WTI crude oil jumped nearly 2% at open, Brent returned to $90, and BTC fell 1.7% in one hour. 📉 At such a moment, I want to share three calm observations. First, don't look for a "sure-win deal" amid the smoke. Whether Iran will continue to retaliate, whether the US will expand its front, whether oil prices can break through $100, and whether the Fed will dare to cut rates in the face of energy inflation—no one truly knows the answers. Heavy positions now feel more like a high-stakes gamble than rational investment. Second, this decline is completely different from June. The core logic of June is employment data and rate hike expectations, at least with data, meeting minutes, and dot plots to deduce. Now, with war, energy shocks, and inflation expectations combined, oil price trends depend not on Powell's remarks but on the next second on the Middle East battlefield. What's even more alarming is that even spot gold is opening down—traditional safe-haven assets have also fallen, so how can BTC, as a risk asset, remain unaffected? Its true pricing power has long been in the hands of dollar liquidity. Third, if you hold idle funds with a cycle of over two years, 77,000 and 85,000 are essentially the same; But for short-term traders, reducing positions and waiting might be the best move right now. U.S. military officials admit that ongoing actions against Iran are "unsustainable," meaning the situation could turn or escalate at any time. Amid such uncertainty,Russia Moves "Money" Onto the Blockchain: Will Future Payments Be Sovereign Currency or USDT/USDC?
On September 1, Russia launched a large-scale promotion of the digital ruble. This is not just an additional payment tool; it marks the sovereign digital currency moving from pilot phase into real consumption scenarios. Starting September 1, major banks and merchants with annual revenues exceeding 120 million rubles must integrate the digital ruble. Companies like Ozon, Wildberries, MTS, Magnit, and Aeroflot are already prepared.
However, its short-term impact on BTC itself is actually limited: $BTC just experienced about a 24% increase in August, while on August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $202 million, indicating that the current BTC market is already facing profit-taking pressure.
What is truly worth watching is the competition between CBDCs and stablecoins. Russia is proving that a country can directly digitize payments, settlements, and currency, and that the digital ruble is not a cryptocurrency.
Therefore, I would not interpret this as "Russia embracing cryptocurrency." On the contrary, this is a counterattack by sovereign currency against stablecoins and certain crypto payment scenarios. In the long term, it will stimulate the market to rethink: will future digital payments be issued by the state, or dominated by private digital dollars like USDT/USDC? Zcash (ZEC) is currently around $830–840, with a market cap of about $14.1 billion, ranking in the top 12. Since mid-August, it has launched a nearly 80% rally from about $490, reaching a high of approximately $880–888, the highest point since 2018, then entering a high-level consolidation.
There are three main reasons for this round of increase: first, Grayscale converted the Zcash Trust into a spot ETF (ZCSH), which was listed on NYSE Arca on August 25, opening the institutional channel; second, the privacy narrative has warmed up, with Raoul Pal and others describing it as "Bitcoin with privacy"; third, after the Orchard vulnerability in June, the Ironwood upgrade in July patched the old pool and rebuilt supply auditability, completing market price correction. Recently, Zakura Common reduced the shielded transaction construction time from about 3 seconds to under 200 milliseconds without a hard fork, which is a substantial improvement in user experience. The NU7 holder vote ending on September 14 (block time change from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, whether to cancel halving or switch to smooth issuance, etc.) will continue to provide topics, but the results are advisory in nature and unlikely to drive one-sided pricing in the short term.
Technically, the weekly structure remains bullish, but the daily RSI has fallen back after being overbought, and multiple upper shadows at $880–900 indicate profit-taking. Key support levels are at 800, then 750–770; breaking below 750 may test around 690. Contract trading volume is much higher than spot, with high open interest; the rise is leveraged and so will the pullback be amplified.
**Suggestions for the coming week (not investment advice):** Avoid chasing highs. Those already holding can reduce positions in batches at 860–880 to lock in profits, with stop loss set at a confirmed break below 750. Those looking to enter should wait for a pullback to 780–800 before considering a small long position, targeting a second push to 880–900; only after a breakout and stable hold above should 1000 be considered. Keep positions light and control leverage. Macro risk asset volatility, ETF fund flows, and voting sentiment may cause fluctuations over 10% within a week. The privacy sector logic remains mid-term, but short-term has shifted from a trend to high-volatility consolidation. Finally, wishing all who follow this coin to make profits $ZEC $BTC $ETH $SNDK SanDisk's order was placed before the market opened yesterday during the daytime session.
When the US market opened, I saw it rise directly and thought I missed the chance to get in.
I forgot to cancel the order before going to sleep, and surprisingly it dipped again in the middle of the night before rising 😉 SanDisk's price action is really interesting, fluctuating back and forth, but it still hasn't broken through and held above around 1580. I reduced my position and am holding. Only breaking through the resistance near 1630 can open up further upside potential.
News:
1. Industry fundamentals: AI storage demand continues to expand
The storage industry is currently in a super upcycle driven by AI. TrendForce data shows that in Q2 2026, the top five global NAND manufacturers' revenue grew 77% quarter-over-quarter to $68.87 billion. This year, eSSD will surpass smartphones as the largest NAND application for the first time.
Recent key catalysts:
· August 31: Kioxia and SanDisk announced plans to jointly invest about $31 billion in Japan to expand NAND capacity
· August 25: TrendForce forecasts global AI infrastructure capital expenditure will reach $1.383 trillion in 2027, with nearly 70% flowing into DRAM and NAND flash
2. On-chain data: funds are withdrawing
Key risk signals: SNDK's open interest (OI) on Hyperliquid dropped from about $196 million to $157 million, a 19.5% decrease, with position count down 47.2%. Long effective leverage fell from 5.8x to 3.4x, shorts from 6.7x to 5.9x. OI declined another 30.3% in the past 7 days. This rally is more of a "deleveraging rebound" rather than sustained new capital inflow.
It has been oscillating between 1600-1400 for many days, a downtrend consolidation zone. If the bulls cannot repair and continue the rise, the market may eventually fall after a prolonged period.
The above is my personal opinion for reference only.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 核心关注： Strategy重新买入BTC｜BTC 77,000–78,000美元支撑｜9月4日非农｜9月11日CPI｜9月15–16日FOMC｜ETF资金能否重新转强 昨天是8月最后一个交易日，BTC没有继续向80,000美元上方突破，而是在79,246美元附近冲高后回落，目前维持在77,800美元附近。8月BTC累计上涨约23%，但进入9月后，市场环境已经发生变化：一方面，Warsh在杰克逊霍尔之后明显抬高了市场对9月加息的定价，短端美债收益率快速上行；另一方面，机构资金并没有因为宏观转鹰而完全撤退，Strategy在8月31日重新买入4,603枚BTC，金额约3.697亿美元。所以现在最重要的不是判断“9月一定涨还是跌”，而是观察BTC在宏观压力增加之后，77,000–78,000美元附近到底有没有新的现货承接。如果这里能够反复守住，同时ETF资金重新转正，那么8月的上涨就不再只是一次轧空；如果跌破后成交放大、ETF继续流出、OI同步下降，则意味着市场正在进入上涨后的主动去杠杆阶段。 一、宏观：9月从“降息交易”切换成“数据交易” Warsh的鹰派讲话正在改变9月的交易框架。市场2. Bitcoin: Is $80,000 Heaven or Hell?
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $78,000-$79,000. From a technical perspective, only a clear close above $79,500 can open the path to $84,000-$89,000; if it falls below $76,800, it will retest the low $70,000 range.
But the on-chain data is quite unsettling.
Binance's Bitcoin reserves have climbed to 687,000 BTC, the highest since 2026, while exchange stablecoin reserves are shrinking — this is a distribution phase, not an accumulation phase. The trader unrealized profit ratio has surged to 20.5%, and whales realized $614 million in profits on August 20 alone.
What’s even more painful: of the $6.55 billion short squeeze in August, how much was real spot demand, and how much was just shorts being forced to cover? If it’s the latter, the market could crash right at the September open.
The CryptoSlate model predicts a target price of $81,319 on September 29 — only a $2,000 to $3,000 increase in a month? This is not a surge; it’s a script for high-level consolidation.
$SOL $ETH $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Brothers, how awesome was this August rally? Bitcoin surged 24% in a single week, marking the biggest increase in three years; Ethereum rose 40% in August, outperforming all macro assets. But the question is—can it keep charging in September?
Today, I won’t draw K-lines or shout trading calls; I’ll just reveal all the trump cards for September.
---
1. The biggest contradiction: Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates or not?
The starting point of this August surge was the U.S. Treasury’s announcement to double the long-term bond repurchase scale to $4 billion starting September 9—liquidity expectations directly ignited the market.
But September’s situation is completely different.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole pushed the probability of a September rate hike directly to 57%. CME FedWatch shows a 38.4% chance, while Polymarket’s estimate is even higher, between 52% and 62.6%. Yet Goldman Sachs says the probability of a September hike is extremely low—institutions and prediction markets are completely at odds.
Tom Lee’s view is the most provocative: he treats the panic over a September crash as a contrarian indicator. He says the Fed meeting on September 15 is a decisive turning point; if the Fed neither raises nor cuts rates, the market could see an "extremely strong rebound," with Bitcoin potentially surging to $150,000.
September 15—remember this date. The Fed’s policy meeting and the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act happen on the same day. This day could directly determine the direction for September and even Q4.
$SOL $ETH $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Guys, I just checked the market, and today's market is quite interesting. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $79,000, and the overnight yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged to 4.76%, hitting a 19-month high. Logically, risk assets should be under pressure, but Bitcoin barely fell, even breaking through the $79,000 mark in the early hours of the morning, up about 0.18%. This shows that amid US Treasury sell-offs and geopolitical conflicts, the market has started to treat Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. However, Ethereum is weaker, dropping about 0.98% to around $2,480, while Bitcoin's market share has risen to 59.75%, clearly concentrating funds into Bitcoin. In the past 24 hours, about $295 million was liquidated across the internet, with long positions accounting for 70%, indicating that the leverage chips used to chase at high prices are being washed out again. How to move tomorrow depends on whether Treasury yields can calm down. If the 10-year yield continues to push above 4.8%, risk assets as a whole will remain under pressure, and Bitcoin may pull back to $77,000-$78,000 to find support; But if the market digests the selling pressure on Treasury bonds, and with the September 15 Senate vote on the CLARITY Act anchored, Bitcoin has a chance to reach $80,000 again. As for trending altcoins today, the market is diverging, with most pulling back. Specifically: $XRP fell 1.59% to around $1.41, but spot ETFs have accumulated net inflows of $1.8 billion, so fundamentals are still solid; $SOL fell 2% to around $100, fighting around $100 in the short term; $DOGE dropped nearly 3%.Giving tax cuts to investments but excluding crypto assets from the door is actually quite thought-provoking.
Ireland is preparing to launch a tax-advantaged savings account for adults, expected to open next year. Stocks, bonds, funds, ETFs, and insurance products can all be included, and within the specified limits, tax benefits can be enjoyed.
But BTC, ETH, and other crypto assets are not included, and derivatives and interest-bearing cash are also excluded.
I think the real discussion is not "why Ireland doesn't allow buying crypto," but a bigger question:
When the government starts actively encouraging ordinary people to invest long-term, what assets will it prioritize?
The answer is actually quite clear.
Assets that can be included in a national savings system must first make regulators feel that the risks are controllable, the rules mature, and consumer protection mechanisms are sound.
Crypto assets have undergone huge changes over the years; ETFs, institutional funds, and custody systems are all developing rapidly, but in the eyes of many countries, they are still distant from being "standard long-term savings assets for ordinary people."
So this policy may not necessarily be just negative news for the crypto industry.
Instead, it puts the issue on the table:
When will crypto assets truly transition from "emerging assets in financial markets" to "standard assets that ordinary people can allocate long-term"?
If this step is truly achieved, its significance may far exceed any single market rally.
Because at that time, what changes will not just be the price, but the entire society's positioning of crypto assets.Crypto assets are experiencing a massive influx of capital, but capital preferences are becoming increasingly refined.
Last week, spot crypto ETFs collectively attracted over $2 billion: BTC net increased by $924 million, ETH gained $824 million, while SOL and XRP brought in $154 million and $110 million respectively.
Notably, after nine consecutive days of gains, BTC saw a sudden net outflow of $202 million on August 28, whereas ETH, SOL, and XRP continued to see net inflows during the same period.
This contrast does not mean that capital is abandoning Bitcoin; rather, institutions are making differentiated allocations based on the prospects of different sectors—ETH benefits from Layer 2 scaling and staking narratives, SOL focuses on high-performance payment scenarios, and XRP leverages progress in cross-border compliance.
BTC’s short-term pullback is more likely due to profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. As the broad rally phase ends, where will the next consensus target for incremental capital be? BTC’s safe-haven attributes, ETH’s ecosystem restructuring, SOL’s mass adoption, or XRP’s regulatory breakthroughs?
The market performance in the coming weeks may provide answers, but one thing is certain: capital has entered a new phase of selective investment.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $ONDO This trend doesn't even require me to think; the account is dancing on its own. During the repeated oscillations in the session, I was focused on one thing: every rebound was weak and soft, it surged once then wilted—this is called a weak rebound. With this kind of structure, no one wants to catch the top, so what else can happen next? It can only look for support downward. No more nonsense, open a short position, entry price 0.3755, just treat the rebound as a free point.
Just finished lunch and checked the market, the price has already dropped to 0.3466, +384.82%, this profit feels good, the wait was worth it.
When the rhythm is right, position management must follow: first close 70%, don't be greedy for the last bit; set a protective stop for the remaining +384.82%, adjust the cost price, and let the rest fly. If it really crashes later, profits keep rolling; if it dares to rebound, we won't feel bad either.
Don't lose patience in the oscillation and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
Risk control done upfront is called rationality; cutting losses later is called decisive action.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a new structure to emerge, there are still opportunities, and when the next more comfortable position comes, I will notify you immediately.
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