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📊 BCH Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01) Bears dominated all day with highly consistent direction and extremely high concentration, with volume gradually converging step by step. Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $11,900 $11,900 $0 4 hours $50,900 $16,100 $34,800 12 hours $62,200 $16,300 $45,800 24 hours $70,200 $19,700 $50,400 In the 1-hour period, bears controlled the market with extreme dominance; long liquidation was $11,900 while short liquidation was zero, reaching the confirmation range in volume; in 4 hours, bears moderately took over with 2.16 times the volume, rising to $50,900; in 12 hours, bears moderately controlled the market with 2.81 times the volume, rising to $62,200; in 24 hours, bears closed with 2.56 times, liquidating $50,400 against longs' $19,700, totaling $70,200. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 88.6% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration—the liquidation pressure is almost entirely focused in the first 12 hours, with minimal increase afterward. The bear multiple went from extreme dominance → 2.16x → 2.81x → 2.56x, showing a V-shaped reversal and then stabilizing at a high level; bear momentum retreated moderately after extreme strength and then climbed again, consistently staying above a strong 2.5x range. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; the direction is clear but the intensity is moderate, so avoid blindly chasing shorts. 🔥 Market Wind Vane | 2026-09-01 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone faces the ultimate test with employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a validation period. 📊 Nonfarm Payrolls debut this Friday: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data? At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, with the previous value at -23,000; unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Just last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation is still "too high" and "there is work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm payrolls have been weak for three consecutive times—if this week's data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month growth around 0.2%, which would keep the FOMC on hold; JPMorgan emphasizes that the "more important news" deciding the September meeting outcome is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI. ₿ BTC high-level oscillation: gold linkage continues to strengthen, rate hike expectations pressure Bitcoin rose 28% cumulatively in August, once breaking through $81,000, but fell back under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold is also under pressure, briefly dropping below $4,450 during the session. The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are currently suppressing the short-term upward momentum of "non-government credit assets"—but if this week's nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum. 🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week. Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. The market expects total revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $16 billion, with growth exceeding 200% year-on-year. JPMorgan expects full-year 2026 AI revenue to exceed $56 billion. Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company has $51.3 billion in AI server backlog orders, with quarterly AI orders at $24.4 billion; AI server revenue is expected to be about $15.5 billion. However, profit margin pressure is notable—AI servers typically have lower margins, and the market will focus on whether the Infrastructure Solutions Group can improve its margin from 10.5%. 💎 Summary Three events outline the same picture: this Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "there is work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but are currently suppressed by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns, with margin pressure becoming a new focus. Mapping to the BCH contract market, bears started with extreme dominance, then stabilized above 2.5x multiple with highly consistent direction, making it the token with the strongest sustained bearishness today. But the 88.6% 12-hour liquidation concentration indicates large-scale liquidations were basically completed in the first 12 hours, with almost no increase afterward—although bears remain strong, they lack ammunition to further expand gains. The 24-hour total liquidation is only $70,200, a small volume; in a liquidity-thin environment, it takes little capital to maintain extra multiple premium. Currently, BCH is in a state of clear direction but peaked momentum, with limited cost-effectiveness for chasing shorts; wait for nonfarm data before making further decisions. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Is Xiaomi at the bottom yet? The market looks weak indeed, hovering around 3.5, corresponding to 27.6 HKD. It has dropped from 59.9, nearly halving—quite brutal. Smartphone shipments fell 26.5% in Q2, but ASP hit 1351 yuan, a record high. They actively cut low-end models because storage chip prices surged too much to bear. Volume is down but prices are up; this is a deliberate adjustment, not a crash. The car business is still burning cash; the Pengcheng SUV launches in September, and R&D spending keeps rising, with 9.2 billion yuan invested. No profits in the short term, but cash on hand is sufficient. Research reports still give high target prices; institutions like Dongwu are still recommending buy. Management says the toughest times are almost over, and flagship phones will launch in the second half. I think this level is the bottom area, but it will take time to bounce back. Let's wait for smartphone gross margin stabilization and Pengcheng delivery data before deciding. Cutting losses at this level isn't very cost-effective. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$XIAOMI 🔥 IF USD KEEPS FALLING, WHICH TOKEN CAN BENEFIT THE MOST, AND IS MEME 🐸 THE FINAL DESTINATION OF THE MONEY FLOW? There's a question I see many people asking: If USD continues to weaken... which token should you buy? Most people will answer: BTC. That's not wrong. But in my opinion... BTC might not be the token that delivers the highest beta. More importantly: What order will the money flow follow? This is what I'm observing. ⸻ 💣 USD FALLING IS NOT JUST A FOREX STORY A weaker USD $OP: Superchain narrative heats up again, buyback becomes the biggest highlight OP is the native token of the Optimism ecosystem. The core of Optimism is not just the OP Mainnet, but building the Superchain around the OP Stack to enable more Layer2s to share infrastructure. The most anticipated positive development in the market currently is that Optimism has pushed forward a mechanism for the Superchain to use its revenue to buy back OP. The previously announced plan is to use 50% of Superchain revenue to purchase OP, establishing a more direct link between network growth and token value. This is very important for OP because the market has long criticized L2 tokens for having "a large ecosystem but insufficient token value capture." Now with the buyback mechanism, the revenue growth of the Superchain begins to have a more direct token demand logic. OP rose today, which I believe is more due to the overall warming of the L2 sector + a rebound from a low position + renewed expectations for buybacks. However, since OP experienced a significant decline earlier, to truly break out into a major trend, it will still depend on whether the Superchain's actual revenue and ecosystem growth can be sustained.Bitcoin near $79K isn't really a crypto story, it's a debasement one. BTC's 90-day correlation with gold has jumped to ~0.5, its second-highest ever, as US debt past $40T and a $1.9T deficit push capital to hedge the dollar. When gold and BTC rise together, the market is voting on debasement, and BTC is the high-beta version of that hedge. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults #Bessent plans to ease bank credit, high interest rate pressure to be resolved The leader has something to say Bessent and Wash are pushing in opposite directions. Bessent wants to relax credit for small and medium banks, expand corporate financing, and rely on growth to ease debt pressure. Wash wants to push inflation down to 2%, with high interest rates as the tool. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.75%, near a 20-month high, oil prices remain above 90, and the market has chosen the Federal Reserve. Whether credit easing can translate into effective investment will determine the outcome of this combined strategy. Investment in equipment, manufacturing, and technology means supply expansion. Investment in consumption and real estate means pushing up demand and prices, and the high interest rate cycle will only be longer. The Treasury is also expanding long-term bond repurchases to improve liquidity but cannot suppress yields. Bessent is responsible for easing, Wash for tightening; these two forces are tearing apart, with asset prices caught in the middle. BTC is around 780000, continuing to hold ZEC short positions. Direction is unclear, no long positions taken. $BTC $ETH $SOL The above analysis is timely; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.Today Crypto is quite interesting. BTC is sideways, ETH, SOL, and DOGE are all pulling back. But HYPE has actually risen. According to CoinDesk's data today, HYPE is one of the few large tokens that have increased in value. I think HYPE is worth watching, not just for the price. But for the logic behind it: Hyperliquid is really making money and using a large portion of its revenue to buy back HYPE. This is quite different from many purely narrative tokens. Previously, when we studied a coin: Narrative? Community? TVL? Roadmap? Now we add another question: Is it actually profitable? The logic of Hyperliquid is actually very simple: User trading ↓ Protocol generates revenue ↓ Part of the revenue is used for buybacks ↓ Token gains value capture Of course, this does not mean HYPE will definitely rise. Buybacks are not a cure-all. What really deserves observation is: Can the trading volume be sustained? Can the protocol revenue be sustained? Can the buybacks be maintained long-term? If all these are possible, then HYPE's story is not just a "hot coin". But a very worthy case study of: Crypto Revenue + Token Value Capture. I think this might also be what the market will pay more attention to in the next phase. $UNITREE The first humanoid robot stock is still here, 85 is not a new main rise but a digestion of the premium Many people trading contracts only watch the robot dog flipping, not seeing how much this stock has already digested its listing premium. Unitree is the first humanoid robot stock on the A-share market, listed on the STAR Market on August 19, with an issue price of 150.8 yuan, opening at 1100, closing at 845 on the first day, and online subscription exceeding 8000 times. It's true: about 1.7 billion in 2025, already profitable, appeared three times on the Spring Festival Gala, and DeepSeek also participated in strategic placement. But the secondary market does not recognize story premiums. The main stock fell from 1100 all the way down to about 565 on August 31, with a price-earnings ratio still in the tens. The perpetual puzzle 1-hour chart is more direct: 88.02 is a barrier, on August 31 it dropped to 82.37, this morning it surged near 87 with volume but then retreated back to 85. This is not because fundamentals worsened, but the liquidity premium from the listing week is clearing out. A common problem for retail investors is: the first stock with three characters can be chased, but when it pulls back they think it will go to zero. The logic and valuation are still being squeezed. Around 85 is for observation, not chasing the spike at 88. I am guiding the rhythm in this circle on this account. The above is only personal operation sharing and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH #LaborMarketTestsWalsh The US labor market faces a major test this week, with JOLTS openings, ADP employment, jobless claims and August nonfarm payrolls all scheduled for release. July payrolls fell by 23,000 while May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, suggesting that hiring momentum may be weakening. Markets will watch whether this week’s figures confirm that slowdown or reveal a temporary soft patch. The results matter because Fed Chair Kevin Walsh recently emphasized that inflation remains above target and monetary conditions are not excessively restrictive. Strong employment data could reinforce expectations for a September rate hike, lifting Treasury yields and pressuring gold, Bitcoin and other risk assets. Weaker numbers would complicate Walsh’s inflation-first stance. In my view, the full set of indicators matters more than any single headline: payroll growth, unemployment, wages and revisions must be assessed together.$SPCX surged 92% yet still at a loss, 144 is not a new high but a correction; many are doing contracts Only listening to Musk's storytelling without seeing the company reveal its cards. SpaceX Q2 has already been released: $7.8 billion, +92% year-on-year, Starlink and related connections $4.3 billion, 12 million users. But the quarter still lost $541 million, AI and capital expenditures ate up the profits, and the stock price was also hammered the night of the earnings report. This is not a vaporware coin; it is a company still burning cash to gain market share. Don't beautify the market. IPO priced at 135, first day received 161, touched 225 on June 16, dropped to 105 on August 3. The main stock closed at 143.69 on August 31, just slightly above the issue price. Volume has not caught up with the average volume; after an initial lock-up period release, this is a correction, not a second main rise. Retail investors' common problem is: the story sounds good so they chase, then when it pulls back they think it will go to zero. Bluetooth is still reversing, Starlink is still rising, the logic is intact; but around 144 is not the place to chase a breakout. Pullbacks provide position; do not chase spikes above the issue price. I am watching this together with the community on this account. The above is personal operation sharing and does not constitute investment advice $BTC $ETH 😂 Known as the three musketeers of commodities, now each has its own agenda and goes its own way Personal market insights, not investment advice I used to think that gold $XAU, silver $XAG, and oil $CL, these three musketeers, were born from the same parents. In the past, they almost always took off together, and when risks eased, they all dropped together, moving in sync and cooperating. But these days, the gold and silver brothers have actually turned downward, each following its own trend. Why has this split happened? Simply put, although they are brothers, each cares about completely different things. Crude oil $CL is the hot-tempered middle brother worried about supply As long as war threatens oil transportation or oilfield facilities, worried about supply shortages, it just keeps pulling up sharply. War is a real boon for it. Gold $XAU is the big brother who values interest rates and safe haven status Although it has safe haven attributes, the Fed's hawkish speeches are weighing heavily. When US Treasury yields rise, interest-free gold is shunned by capital. Even if there are geopolitical conflicts, the negative impact of interest rates is stronger, the safe haven buff is directly overshadowed, and gold still faces downward pressure. 🥈 Silver $XAG is the third brother with a split personality Half precious metal, half industrial metal. It has to watch big brother gold's mood and also keep an eye on global manufacturing conditions. Brothers, have you been caught off guard by this division of the three musketeers? Do you think they will regroup later or continue to go their separate ways? Let's chat about it. ⚠️ The above is just a market review sharing, not investment advice Over the weekend, HIMS's on-chain shadow price sold up to $132. The actual stock only closed at 28.84 on Friday. What pushed it up wasn't the earnings report, but a meme coin called BONER. In July, Robinhood launched its own chain, originally planning to tokenize US stocks. But the launch platform invented a new play: a meme liquidity pool, with stock tokens placed directly on the other side, no longer pegged to ETH. Thus appeared pairs like AI/NVDA, BONER/HIMS, MOO/Micron. When buying meme coins, the system often first converts them into stock tokens, then throws them into the pool. The stock shadow tokens are locked. The price is straightforward: meme USD price = (how many stock tokens can be exchanged) × (current value of the stock tokens) You are simultaneously betting on whether the meme will be crazier than the stock and whether the stock itself will rise. BONER locked more than half of the on-chain HIMS into its own pool. Over the weekend, with the NYSE closed and new coins hard to mint, the remaining floating supply was extremely thin, causing the shadow price to once reach a fourfold premium. BONER rose about 1000% in one day. On Monday, new coins were minted, and the premium was crushed flat. The meme can still run further on sentiment. This is not a short squeeze bursting the NYSE—the actual stock's circulating supply and the on-chain shadow differ by several orders of magnitude. It squeezes the small pools that can't mint new coins over the weekend. The formula is still the 2021 recipe: attention, leverage, and the "short squeeze" story. The battlefield has shifted to the thin pools on the Robinhood chain. $ZORA $ZEC After Waller turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, CME's pricing for a September rate hike quickly rose from about 40% last week to 57%. Short-term risk assets are undoubtedly under pressure, but it's too early to draw conclusions based solely on this probability. Three points deserve attention: First, 57% is still a probability; the key repricing points are the September 4th Nonfarm Payrolls and the September 11th CPI. If employment weakens significantly or inflation does not continue to worsen, this expectation could fall at any time. Second, there is a contradiction between the Fed and the Treasury Department's directions—the Treasury announced on August 19th an increase in long-term Treasury buybacks aimed at easing long-term interest rate pressure; if the Fed hikes rates now, it means suppressing financing costs on one hand while raising funding costs on the other. Therefore, September may not simply be a hike or no hike; it could also mean holding steady, relying on hawkish rhetoric to maintain financial conditions. Third, crypto funds have not noticeably withdrawn: last week, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $924 million, ETH ETFs had net inflows of about $824 million, close to BTC levels; stablecoin supply grew by 0.47% during the same period. Even though BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $200 million on the day of Waller's speech, no panic selling was observed. Currently, it looks more like a macro hawkish shift triggering an upward adjustment in rate hike expectations, causing short-term risk asset repricing, but no deterioration in funding conditions has appeared yet. I do not believe a 57% probability is enough to pronounce a death sentence or define a trend reversal. Short-term volatility should be guarded against; the real direction depends on the September Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI. If the data continues to support rate hikes, that will be the moment to be cautious. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTCGoldCorrelation BTC pulled back after breaking $80K, but the changing correlation story caught my attention more than the price move itself 👀 After nine straight days of US spot ETF inflows, net outflows on August 28 ended the streak. At the same time, CryptoQuant reported that on-chain retail activity reached a near two-year high. That creates an interesting handoff: institutional flows have cooled for now, while retail participation is becoming more active 📊 BTC has also been moving more closely with gold and less with the Nasdaq. To me, that suggests the market may be viewing it differently in this phase—but correlation alone doesn’t prove BTC has permanently become a safe-haven asset. The real test is whether that relationship holds when macro conditions change or equity volatility returns. I’m curious which signal proves more durable: renewed retail and spot demand, or BTC’s emerging connection with gold.$BTC Monthly Close: Bulls Strongly Recover BTC finally closed this month at about 78581, almost exactly matching the key 78600 level previously emphasized by Wei Ge, just less than 20 dollars off. A few days ago, the US military's night raid on Iran caused a drop, which now appears to have been a coordinated shakeout of contracts by the market makers. Now funds are starting to shift positively again, and 78600 is very likely to turn into a support level. Wei Ge remains bullish; Friday's non-farm payroll data may affect the short-term trend, but the target near 100,000 before year-end remains unchanged. Trading strategy: Enter long positions near 78600 Target first looks above 80000. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 What’s truly worth watching in Solana DeFi now might not be TVL, but who is actually making money. On August 30, $JUP’s single-day protocol revenue reached about $822,000, hitting a nearly 7-month high, approximately 54% higher than the recent daily average of about $534,000. More importantly, currently about 50% of the platform’s revenue is used for JUP buybacks. 1. What makes Jupiter more worth watching this time is that revenue is starting to rebound. The $822,000 single-day revenue is impressive, but a one-day high alone doesn’t prove stable growth in revenue. What’s truly worth watching is if protocol revenue can continue to rise, then under the current mechanism, funds going into JUP buybacks will also increase accordingly. In other words, a relatively direct value return path has been established between Jupiter’s business revenue and its Token. 2. Solana DeFi is shifting from “watching TVL” to “watching cash flow.” It’s clearer when looking at Jupiter and Raydium together. $RAY previously disclosed that the cumulative buyback scale supported by protocol fees has exceeded 30% of the circulating supply. On Jupiter’s side, revenue is rising while continuing to allocate about half of the revenue to support JUP buybacks. This indicates that an increasingly important metric to watch in Solana DeFi now might not be how much value the protocol locks, but rather: whether the protocol can sustain profitability and whether the earned money flows back to the Token. 3. Tokens without value return $ETH significantly outperformed BTC by 24%, making this August the strongest month for ETH this year. ETH and BTC have shown clear divergence. BTC's ETF saw an outflow of 202 million on August 28, while ETH's ETF continued to have inflows for 10 consecutive days, with an inflow of 102 million on August 28. BlackRock's ETHA absorbed 567 million in 9 days, accounting for 72% of total inflows. The signal of capital rotating from BTC to ETH is very clear. Supply side continues to tighten. BitMine just bought another 53,501 ETH (131 million USD), increasing holdings for 65 consecutive weeks, with a total holding of 5.91 million ETH accounting for 4.9% of supply, only 134,000 ETH short of the 5% target. Total network staking is 42.65 million ETH, accounting for 35.3%, with over 2 million ETH in the staking activation queue waiting 35 days. Exchange balances dropped from 7.69 million in June to 6.28 million. Liquidity is locked down. Technical aspect: 2,500 to 2,550 is a dense resistance zone, last time it was rejected at 2,527. RSI dropped from 75 to 56, the overbought condition has cooled off. Binance has 69.7% of accounts long, which is still a bit crowded. Holding above 2,400 is healthy; a volume breakout above 2,550 targets 2,600 to 2,684. ETH/BTC rate is at a low level, the catch-up potential is real. After BTC stabilizes, ETH will be the first beneficiary. 📊 XRP Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01) Bears dominated all day, but momentum has continuously weakened from extreme crushing pressure to near balance, direction unclear Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $50,900 $50,900 $0 4 hours $367,200 $122,700 $244,500 12 hours $971,300 $471,500 $499,800 24 hours $2,230,500 $860,800 $1,369,700 In the 1-hour period, bears controlled the market with extreme crushing pressure; long liquidations were $50,900 while shorts were zero, reaching a confirmed range; in 4 hours, bears moderately took over with a 1.99x ratio, volume surged to $367,200; in 12 hours, bears were nearly balanced with a 1.06x ratio, volume exploded to $971,300; in 24 hours, bears closed with a 1.59x ratio, liquidations were $1,369,700 for shorts versus $860,800 for longs, totaling $2,230,500. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 43.5% of the 24-hour total, indicating moderate concentration. The bear ratio shifted from extreme crushing → 1.99x → 1.06x → 1.59x, showing a V-shaped reversal trajectory—momentum fell sharply from extreme strength to balanced longs and shorts, with a slight rebound at the end. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less. 🔥 Market Indicator | 2026-09-01 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash’s hawkish tone faces the ultimate test with employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a sustainability verification period. 📊 Nonfarm Payrolls debut this Friday: Can Wash’s "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data? At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs between 58,000-65,000, previous value was -23,000; unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. Just last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation is still "too high" and "there is more work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm payrolls have been weak for three consecutive times—if this week’s data weakens again, Wash’s hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month growth around 0.2%, suggesting the FOMC will hold steady; JPMorgan emphasizes that the "more important news" deciding the September meeting outcome is this week’s nonfarm and next week’s CPI. ₿ BTC consolidates at high levels: gold linkage strengthens, rate hike expectations pressure Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking above $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash’s hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold also under pressure, briefly dropping below $4,450 during the session. The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash’s speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing the upward momentum of "non-government credit assets"—but if this week’s nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum. 🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination Following Nvidia’s explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week. Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. The market expects total revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected to reach $16 billion, with growth exceeding 200%. JPMorgan expects full-year 2026 AI revenue to exceed $56 billion. Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company’s AI server backlog reaches $51.3 billion, quarterly AI orders $24.4 billion; AI server revenue expected around $15.5 billion. But margin pressure is notable—AI servers typically have lower margins, and the market will focus on whether the Infrastructure Solutions Group can improve margins from 10.5%. 💎 Summary Three events outline the same picture: this Friday’s nonfarm will test Wash’s hawkish "more work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but are short-term suppressed by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell’s earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus. Mapping to the XRP contract market, bears started with extreme crushing pressure, but the ratio dropped sharply from 1.99x to 1.06x, nearly balanced—after a directional clearing in the early session, follow-up momentum almost vanished. The 43.5% moderate concentration indicates liquidations are relatively evenly distributed across the 24-hour periods, with no large-scale concentrated stampede. The V-shaped reversal to 1.06x is the most direct evidence of market direction loss—both longs and shorts lack confidence to build sustained offense amid the triple uncertainties of nonfarm, macro, and AI earnings. XRP is currently in a balanced wait-and-see state; watch more, trade less, and await direction after nonfarm data release. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 The fire in the Strait of Hormuz has flared up again. What if the blocking of oil tankers is not an isolated incident but becomes the norm? The Strait of Hormuz handles one-third of the world's crude oil maritime transport daily. If ships can't pass, oil prices will continue to rise. Freight costs increase, insurance rises, and ultimately this pressure passes on to consumer goods prices, making inflation expectations hard to contain. If inflation can't be controlled, the Federal Reserve cannot shift to easing. Without expectations of rate cuts, BTC will find it hard to hold the 80,000 level and will instead be continuously pressured by interest rate expectations. The impact on the crypto space is twofold. First, short-term sentiment is under pressure. With geopolitical conflicts heating up, capital will first flee risky assets to seek safety, making a short-term drop in BTC highly probable. Second, medium- to long-term inflation expectations rise again. As oil prices remain high, the window for rate cuts will be further compressed. As long as the Fed keeps targeting inflation, BTC will have to wait longer for a big rally driven by liquidity easing. Here’s my take. While the U.S. is igniting tensions in the Middle East, it is also turning to Venezuela for oil. The essence of this strategy is to buy time—if the gap in Hormuz can't be plugged in the short term, they secure a substitute plan to stabilize expectations. What the market really needs to watch is not how fast the U.S. can fill the gap, but whether Iran’s interceptions will continue. If it’s just a temporary response, this oil price surge is a pulse. If it becomes the norm, oil prices have room to rise. No need to rush in the short term; the CLARITY Act on September 15 is the real turning point. What do you think? $BTC $ETH $BTC Treasury Company's approach may be entering its next phase. In a public discussion at Bitcoin Asia 2026, Nakamoto CEO David Bailey said he expects Bitcoin Treasury Company to participate more in mergers and acquisitions, especially acquiring companies with real business operations. He also mentioned that Nakamoto and some portfolio companies are already pursuing related deals, but not a single major acquisition has been completed yet. 1. The Past Model Was "Raise → Buy BTC → Refinance" The core logic of BTC Treasury Company was simple: listed companies raised funds; Money was exchanged for Bitcoin; If stocks gained a premium due to BTC exposure, they continued to raise funds to buy coins. Strategy has basically pushed this model to the extreme. But the problem is becoming increasingly obvious: if a company's core story is always "how much BTC is on hand," its valuation can easily rely heavily on BTC prices and capital market financing conditions. 2. The next step may become "BTC balance sheet + real business operations" Bailey's truly interesting judgment this time is to move M&A into the next phase. If BTC Treasury starts acquiring companies with real revenue and cash flow, it will no longer be just a "publicly traded Bitcoin wallet." It may gradually become a new holding company structure: B The escalation of US-Iran confrontation: what the crude oil market fears most is not a single news item, but the transportation costs becoming a regular tax Straits, sanctions, military actions, temporary routes—these words stacked together naturally stimulate short-term oil prices. But what's more troublesome is that traders won't wait for the risk to fully explode before acting; they will buy insurance in advance, change routes, stockpile inventory, and raise prices It's like an invisible toll station added to the logistics system Even if physical supply doesn't immediately break off, energy inflation could be gradually pushed higher. For the market, this kind of risk is the hardest to trade: it doesn't explode daily, but it makes inflation expectations stickier every day. The Federal Reserve already fears inflation persistence, and rising oil prices add fuel to the fire, making it harder for policy to ease #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 $BTC $ETH $SOL The "rise" is the BTC spot ETF inflow over nine days (weekly net inflow still 924 million), the "fall" is the single-day net outflow of 202 million on 8/28 cutting off, and the initial value on 8/31 only rebounded by 3.6 million, which is basically no buying. The rise and fall switch within 48 hours. Don't treat the inflow of the previous nine days as a permanent buy; institutions rebalance ten times faster than retail turnover. Once the flow drops, the 80k wall immediately becomes a ceiling; if the flow doesn't return, even 78k is held with uncertainty. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 #Robinhood链上交易激增，币股Meme成主角 UNI's recent strong performance is mainly due to the resonance of the following factors: 💰 Core engine: "Fee switch" and deflationary model UNI was often criticized in the past for "protocol profits, token doesn't profit." After the "UNIfication" proposal passed in December 2025, the protocol began injecting part of the fees into the TokenJar treasury. Arbitrageurs must burn an equivalent value of UNI to withdraw assets from the treasury, creating a deflationary flywheel where "the more active the trading, the more UNI is burned, and the higher the price rises." Data shows that a total of 110 million UNI have been burned (worth $630 million), and about $28.4 million worth of UNI has been repurchased and burned this year. 🚀 Key catalyst: Robinhood Chain's "pleasant surprise" Launched in July this year, Robinhood Chain is the ignition point. As its core AMM, Uniswap captured a large volume of trades: ⚠️ Potential risks · Sustainability of burn rate is questionable: the current annualized burn rate is about 4% of circulating supply, and Standard Chartered Bank considers it "clearly unsustainable." · Heavy reliance on Robinhood Chain: whether trading volume can be sustained after its Gas subsidies end is critical. The above analysis is based on public market data and does not constitute any investment advice. Please be sure to assess risks independently. Robinhood has become a phenomenal chain, reminding me of the inscriptions back in the day and the PUMP on SOL. Now, the top KOLs in the Chinese community are all discussing Robinhood; it can be said to be very popular. I remember when SOL directly hit an all-time high, and the inscriptions also rose along with BTC. I checked the price of Hood in the US stock market, $108.75. Revenue in the second quarter increased by more than 30% year-over-year. The Hood chain can be said to have attracted 90% of the attention within the community, but I still think it’s just the first phase. On-chain finance may become Hood’s growth curve in the future. They are taking action, using memes to hype up the on-chain activity; this is a genuine American chain. Secondly, they are starting to connect with RWA, so it seems Hood chain may increasingly lean towards an on-chain securities trading platform. The future second HYPE is also uncertain. I need to do more research, but I have already included it in my key watchlist. 🔥🔥🔥 The Korean premium on kimchi has appeared again, but I still didn't chase it This afternoon I checked OKX and saw BTC at 78,400, up about 1% in 24h. Last night it hit a low of 77,400, this morning it briefly rose to 79,400, and now it's back down to 78,400. It's even livelier in Korea, where BTC's price in Korean won on Upbit is about 1% higher than the overseas market price in USD. The kimchi premium has lasted for a week, the longest since May. This usually indicates rising FOMO sentiment among Asian retail investors. But I didn't chase it. One reason is that on September 6, HYPE will unlock 9.92 million tokens, equivalent to $797 million in selling pressure, which could impact market sentiment. Another is that tonight the US ISM manufacturing data will be released; if the price component exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations might heat up again. My position remains light; I want to wait until this week's data and the HYPE unlock settle before making moves. I'd rather miss this rebound than get slapped by bad news! $BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Japanese government bonds are almost at 3%. Japan used to be the world's cheapest capital pool. Now the 10-year bond auction yield has touched 3%, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has also surged to 4.78%. This means that the previous strategy of leveraging low-interest yen to buy global assets is becoming more costly. What the crypto world fears is not a sudden collapse in Japan, but the gradual retreat of carry trade funds. If the yen strengthens and bond yields continue to rise, who would still be willing to take over at high valuations? #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 AI has reduced the need for headcount but brought more Agents, also giving cybersecurity a new incremental budget. Written by: DaiDai, MSX Maitong Edited by: Frank, MSX Maitong Last week, the US stock market showed an interesting divergence. Nvidia surged after its earnings report, continuing to prove that the demand for AI infrastructure is far from over; meanwhile, CrowdStrike (CRWD) rose 20.5% in a single day, Okta (OKTA) nearly 29%, and the cybersecurity sector also saw a clear valuation recovery. On the other hand, Zscaler (ZS) once plunged more than 30% after last quarter's earnings, and SentinelOne (S) also had a disappointing post-earnings performance. Both are cybersecurity companies and both talk about AI, reflecting a very clear change behind the scenes: As capital begins to look downward from computing power to find new AI revenue sources, the market is no longer willing to buy into all "AI + cybersecurity" stories uniformly but starts to filter—who truly captures the new demand brought by AI? 1. Computing power is burning money; software should start making money One of the biggest controversies in the software industry over the past six months has been whether AI Agents will ultimately shake up the SaaS business model. Because traditional SaaS is largely built on headcount. For example, a company with 100 employees might mean 100 Salesforce, ServiceN - On January 1st, just the three projects BICO, HYPE, and BEAT combined released over $25 million in unlocking volume into the market, not counting other small coins. Have you ever wondered, when "unlocking" becomes routine, are we really trading narratives or trading counterparty trading? Let's start with $BEAT. The story is still well told: AI music, Agent economy, Beat 2.0 upgrade, and the hype remains. But on September 1st, those 11.2 million tokens were real selling pressure. What I fear most has never been a decline, but "no volume when it rises, and there is supply when it falls"—when prices go up, no one buys them, but supply arrives first. My understanding at this point is: it's still digesting the rebound after overselling, not a reversal. A real reversal signal at least needs to be fully absorbed by this round of unlocked selling, not just a few points rising a few points today. Now let's look at $BICO. After Upbit listed BTC and USDT trading pairs, liquidity visibly improved, which is a good thing. But event-driven first waves often move too quickly; those who are only chasing now are watching "if there's a second wave." My observation is: can the platform hold on with shrinking volume during pullbacks? If volume surges at high levels but prices stagnate, it means event funds are being withdrawn in batches, leaving retail investors warming each other. $HYPE This time, the performance was indeed strong. 14.18 million large tokens were unlocked but not directly crushed, showing strong momentum 【NOT Surge and Pullback: Gains Remain, Positions Exit First】 As of 15:50 (UTC+8), BTC has only risen 0.59% in the past 24 hours, ETH up 1.39%, NOT spot around 0.0004736, still up 5.97%, but has pulled back about 8.5% from the intraday high of 0.0005174. DOGS from the same ecosystem only rose about 1.6%, so this is not an overall TON system rally, but more like short-term capital play specific to NOT. What really needs caution is the position changes: NOT perpetual USD open interest rose to about $1.12 million at 13:00, then declined continuously for two hours to about $889,000, a cumulative reduction of about 20.7%; the price also pulled back synchronously from around 0.0005127. Meanwhile, the funding rate shifted from negative to +0.005%, indicating that after the short squeeze pressure weakened, longs began to bear holding costs. However, this cannot be directly defined as a retreat. The 1-hour RSI has dropped to about 52, with overheating quickly digested; if support holds near 0.000470, a high-level turnover may still form. My judgment: Hold 0.000470, first watch for a rebound to 0.000491; only after firmly reclaiming 0.000513 is there a chance to retest 0.000517. If it breaks below 0.000465, short-term weakness emerges; losing 0.000453 basically confirms this surge is over. $NOT Renowned quantitative trader Killa recently publicly stated that Bitcoin is expected to reach a new all-time high next year. In his view, obsessing over a precise entry point is not very meaningful; from a long-term perspective, the current price will eventually be surpassed. The biggest mistake right now is not buying at a high price, but completely exiting and becoming just a bystander. His core logic is not complicated: rather than waiting painfully for a legendary perfect bottom, it is better to build positions gradually in the spot market and calmly accept the fluctuations and pullbacks along the way. Supporting this optimistic attitude are the continuous inflows of institutional ETF funds and the lagging effects brought by the halving cycle. My personal view is that cycle predictions can be referenced but do not mean the market will rise in a straight line. Even if the overall trend is upward, deep corrections and intense shakeouts along the way are unavoidable. Interpreting "do not exit" as "go all in" is dangerous; gradual allocation and position control are the correct interpretations of this statement. Reaching new highs is a long-term conclusion; in the short term, the market is still influenced by employment data, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks, so volatility risks should not be underestimated. Past performance of traders does not guarantee the future; narrative is narrative, risk control is risk control, and contract trading especially should not blindly follow one-sided bets. $BTC Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, views are for reference only, do not constitute investment advice, please make decisions cautiously. 📊 SUI Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01) Sharp swings between bulls and bears, extreme 4-hour crushing followed by bears taking over, direction repeatedly changing Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $302.29 $154.15 $148.14 4 hours $6,802.32 $6,654.18 $148.14 12 hours $57,200 $11,600 $45,600 24 hours $175,400 $79,000 $96,400 In 1 hour, bulls control the market with a slight 1.04x advantage, almost perfectly balanced, volume only $302; in 4 hours, bulls extremely crush with 44.9x, volume surging to $6,802, long liquidation $6,654.18 vs short $148.14; in 12 hours, bears violently reverse with 3.93x, volume exploding to $57,200; in 24 hours, bears close with 1.22x, liquidation $96,400 vs bulls $79,000, totaling $175,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 32.6% of the 24-hour total, concentration is low; but 4-hour liquidation only accounts for 3.88% of 24-hour total, volume very small, typical of a momentary extreme clearing followed by rapid direction change. Bull multiples go from 1.04x → 44.9x (extreme surge) → bear 3.93x (direction reversal) → bear 1.22x (continued exhaustion), showing an inverted V-shaped reversal then continuous decline, bull momentum bursts twice then collapses avalanche-style, bear momentum also weakens simultaneously. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, watch more and trade less amid repeated direction switches. 🔥 Market Wind Vane | 2026-09-01 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone faces the ultimate test with employment data, Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," AI hardware returns enter a sustainability verification period. 📊 Nonfarm payrolls debut this Friday: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the data "blade"? At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, previous value was -23,000; unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. Just last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation is still "too high," "there is more work to do." The market quickly pushed September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm has been weak for three consecutive times—if this week's data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month rise around 0.2%, under which FOMC will hold steady; JPMorgan emphasizes the "more important news" deciding September meeting results is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI. ₿ BTC high-level oscillation: gold linkage continues to strengthen, rate hike expectations pressure Bitcoin rose 28% cumulatively in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold also under pressure, once falling below $4,450 intraday. The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing "non-government credit assets" upward momentum—but if this week's nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum. 🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week. Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects total revenue about $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected to reach $16 billion, up over 200% year-on-year. JPMorgan expects 2026 full-year AI revenue to exceed $56 billion. Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company has $51.3 billion backlog in AI servers, quarterly AI orders $24.4 billion; AI server revenue expected about $15.5 billion. But profit margin pressure is notable—AI servers usually have low margins, market will focus on whether Infrastructure Solutions Group margin can improve from 10.5%. 💎 Summary Three things outline the same picture: this Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "more work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," but short-term suppressed by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus. Mapping to the SUI contract market, the 4-hour window saw an extreme 44.9x bull crush, but volume only $6,802, a "big noise, small rain" local clearing—indicating it is not driven by trend forces but a chain liquidation triggered by small-scale funds in a thin liquidity state. Bears reversed with 3.93x in 12 hours then quickly exhausted to 1.22x, combined with 32.6% low concentration, showing neither bulls nor bears can build sustained offense. Currently, SUI is in a repeated direction testing but fruitless oscillation pattern, likely to maintain this state before nonfarm release. Watch more, trade less, wait for clear direction. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 On August 31, 2026, Core DAO officially disclosed the "validator over-issuance" incident, combined with Coinbase's temporary suspension of CORE deposits and withdrawals on the same day, causing the price to plummet from about $0.0256 to around $0.021 (a 24h drop of about 7%–9%). What exactly happened these past two days? On 8/31, Core officially stated: a small number of validators received block rewards exceeding the protocol's set issuance amount; the root cause has been identified and is being mitigated; emphasized "user asset safety, no impact on network security, just a bug in the reward issuance layer," and promised a complete post-mortem report. Unanswered community questions: How much excess CORE was issued exactly? Has any been transferred to exchanges? Has the 2.1B total supply cap been effectively breached? The official side has yet to provide numbers or name the validators. Overseas rumors claim "26 million CORE moved from protocol addresses to exchanges," but this is unconfirmed. Coinbase's suspension of CORE deposits and withdrawals on the same day (trading unaffected) further amplified panic. Price reaction: CORE had rebounded over 40% in the previous 40 days (BTCFi narrative + non-custodial BTC staking launch), but gave back some gains after the incident; current price is about $0.021–0.024, still down over 99% from the 2023 ATH of $6.14. AI's current assessment of CORE Short term: trust discount + technical oversell, awaiting post-mortem to set direction This incident is not a private key theft or bridge hack; it is a protocol-layer bug in coin issuance logic/reward settlement. Its nature is lighter than a hacker attack but heavier than a "pure market correction"—because it directly hits CORE's "fixed 2.1 billion cap" monetary credibility. Key observation points: whether the post-mortem discloses the excess amount, whether there will be clawback/destruction, and whether the client will be hard-fixed. If glossed over, the market will price it as "hidden inflation." If the previous low of 0.018 breaks, then watch the historical bottom at 0.016–0.017. Technically, RSI-7 is near 33, indicating oversold. If BTC stabilizes and the official report is decent, a rebound is possible, but bottom-fishing before the report is a bet on transparency. Mid term: BTCFi narrative remains, but fundamentals lack closure Positives: Satoshi Plus integrates BTC hashrate/staking, non-custodial BTC staking launched in August, TVL up about 25% in 30 days, Split Delegation reduces staking friction; the roadmap is still alive. Negatives: circulating market cap only around $30 million, 24h volume a few million dollars, very shallow depth; early share + team linear unlocks continue to exert pressure; SatPay is not yet a revenue engine, and the "fee → CORE buyback" model currently does not cover sell pressure. The over-issuance incident will make institutions more cautious; large BTC delegations, which have not yet exploded, will be harder to attract. Long term: a small-cap turnaround play, not a value coin CORE's branding is "BTC native yield layer," but its reputation has fallen from $6 to $0.02, leaving trust wreckage and inflation doubts. The only logic for a 10x increase is: SatPay/lstBTC truly generate sustainable fees and continuous buyback and burn, and this issuance bug is proven to be minimal and fully cleared. Missing any one of these means any rise is a rebound, not a reversal. If you currently hold some CORE Don't automatically translate "user asset safety" into "price safety"—dilution hurts holders. In the next 1–2 weeks, only watch the official X (@Coredao_Org) and core browser reward curves; ignore KOL hype. Position-wise, it is a high-volatility satellite holding, not a core holding; if 0.018 breaks, consider reducing position rather than doubling down. According to data from CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, whale holdings have clearly increased during this period. The group holding 100 to 1000 $BTC has cumulatively increased by 73,300 BTC over 60 days, reaching the highest level since April 21. Although it hasn't returned to the peak of 91,920 BTC on April 21, the trend is already very clear. More interestingly, super whales holding over 10,000 BTC are also continuously increasing their positions, with a net growth of 43,300 BTC. This is completely different from the situation in April to May—at that time, super whales net reduced about 40,000 BTC in mid-May, after which Bitcoin's price dropped by 25%. Now, this group is not only holding but actively buying, showing a clear warming in institutional capital sentiment. In summary: • Mid-sized and super whales are both increasing holdings, indicating a healthy structure • This is not a simple repeat of April’s scenario; this trend is more solid • Large funds are accumulating, retail investors are waiting, and the market often does not favor the majority’s wishes #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 There is an iron rule at the poker table: when everyone folds, the only one daring to push chips forward either really has a strong hand or is putting on a show for you. Today's game is strange—three major indices are all down, as if all three players have folded, yet Tesla, SanDisk, and SK Hynix simultaneously turn green, each rising over 5%. A rookie's pupils dilate: isn't this an open-hand opportunity? Go for it. But count the chips on the table: volume hasn't increased, sectors aren't moving together, and there's no positive policy news. This isn't a "true dragon rising"; it looks more like someone deliberately showing you three beautiful cards, just waiting for you to call. I've seen this act too many times. A single-point surge in a weak market is like drawing a winning tile when you're waiting in Mahjong—you think it's a natural win, but actually the player before you calculated and fed it to you. The big bullish candles of Storm Technology in 2015 and BTC hitting 69,000 in 2021—weren't they all sugar-coated traps? Veterans only ask three questions: Has the fundamental changed drastically? Is capital continuously flowing in? Has the market bottomed out? If all answers are "no," then this bullish candle isn't an opportunity; it's ash blown out by the opponent to distract you. My discipline is simple: when the trend is down, never heavily bet on a single stock. Fold when you should, even if it later rises, no regrets. Those who live long rely on having chips when the market warms up, not catching the last baton. The same goes for BTC; don't go all in just because of one bullish candle. The real winner at the table is the one who watches the cards all night and only pushes chips in the last hand. In today's game, I fold, I don't call. $BTC $TSLA $ETH Every cycle, L2 is declared to "kill ETH": - L2 is useless → ETH is doomed - A certain L2 explodes → Alt-L1 under pressure - L2 revenue is low → ETH gets stronger - L2 revenue surpasses → "Is ETH dying again?" ⬅️ now But the latest data is more worth watching: L2 activity is about 60+ times that of the Ethereum mainnet, and the ecosystem is accelerating its differentiation. The key is not whether L2 will replace ETH, but whether L2's growth can translate into value capture for ETH. Narratives may change, but data does not. #ETH #L2 #Ethereum #OKXOrbit MU might actually be the real "decisive factor" for the AI sector in September. Right now, the market is focused on NVDA and AMD, but Micron is starting to be spotlighted instead. The market is even beginning to discuss whether MU will become the biggest winner or the biggest loser in the AI field this September. The logic is actually simple: as AI computing power continues to expand, memory demand is hard to avoid. Especially high-bandwidth memory, which is shifting from a "supporting role" in the past to a core component in AI infrastructure. Nvidia's earnings have already proven that AI capital expenditure hasn't stopped and is even accelerating. What’s truly worth watching next is whether this round of AI funding can continue to flow into Micron's orders, revenue, and profits. So in September, don’t just focus on how much Nvidia can rise. $NVDA looks at computing power, $AMD looks at competition, $MU looks at memory. If MU continues to strengthen, there might be a second wave for AI semiconductors; conversely, if memory prices or performance expectations loosen, MU could also become the sector’s biggest retracement. At this stage of the AI market, memory is no longer a minor player. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 The labor market is quietly testing Warsh's Fed. After weeks of hawkish talk and open hike dissents, the latest jobs data came in softer than the narrative, with prior months revised down and hiring fading. A hawkish chair now has to square inflation vigilance with a labor market cooling under him. If the weakness is real, the hike case fades and the hold-then-cut path reopens, which is what risk assets are leaning toward. Data over rhetoric. DYOR. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh OKB｜One of the strongest platform tokens, but also the thinnest $OKB current price 112, almost flat in 24 hours, 7-day pullback of 2.5%, still up nearly 30% in 30 days. Up 30.69% in August, outperforming Top100's 23.95%. In the same sector, BGB -3.9%, KCS -7.9%, MX -3.7%, it is the only one showing a main upward wave. Three details on the market. First, deflation is real. On August 15, 279 million tokens were burned at once, reducing the total supply from 300 million permanently to 21 million. On August 18, the contract removed the minting and manual burning functions. This is a fact already implemented, not just an expectation. Second, the position is in the middle. 112 is about 49% of the historical high of 225.9, with a 37% increase over 90 days, meaning some of the expected gains are already priced in. From 80 at the beginning of August to 117 at the end, a 35% rise in one month requires time to digest. Third, liquidity is a major weakness. 24-hour trading volume is only around 15 million USD, with a 7-day volatility of 0.57%. At this depth, a single large order can move the price by several points, making the risk-reward ratio for chasing highs very poor. Key levels: 110 is a repeatedly tested short-term bottom, 104–105 is stronger; above, 115.1 is the recent 7-day high, only breaking this can we talk about 124. Platform tokens essentially act as shadow stocks of exchanges, tracking OKX's volume and regulatory progress. Bitcoin near $79K isn't really a crypto story, it's a debasement one. BTC's 90-day correlation with gold has jumped to ~0.5, its second-highest ever, as US debt past $40T and a $1.9T deficit push capital to hedge the dollar. When gold and BTC rise together, the market is voting on debasement, and BTC is the high-beta version of that hedge. Regime-dependent and it breaks in a real liquidity crunch, but while the deficit runs, the bid is real. NFA. #BTCGoldCorrelation Robinhood Chain Launchpad Wars Two Main Battlefields - General Launcher Competition, Pons Leading After nearly two months of dozens of Launchpad battles, Pons has stood out in terms of token creation count, token trading volume, and platform token market value. - RWA Pairs Theme, Tripartite Standoff Meme paired with Stock Token forms trading pairs, a new element in this TradFi mega cycle. LONG is slightly ahead, accounting for over 40% of Stock Pair trading volume; Pons and Bankr closely follow On September 1, Bitcoin was priced at $78,620, Ethereum at $2,470, both with 24-hour gains around 1%, and the Fear & Greed Index at 69, indicating a greedy zone. First, let's look at the structure. The Bitfinex weekly report believes that the August rally was driven by spot purchases, with restrained leverage usage. Last week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw net inflows close to $1 billion — the authenticity of the buying is more worth watching than the price itself. Treasury company Bitmine bought another 51,000 ETH, about $126 million, continuously accumulating which provides some support for ETH. Hyperliquid plans to enter the US market, and two former SEC and CFTC officials jointly called for regulations on the offshore perpetual contract market, which is about $90 trillion in scale; after the news, a whale staked 489,000 HYPE, with a floating profit of about 138% over five months. However, how the rules will be set and when they will be implemented remain unknown. Risks cannot be ignored either. Injective lost about $4.9 million due to an oracle vulnerability and halted its chain for 4 hours; Ontology preemptively paused block production; Pump.fun sold another 133,000 SOL, totaling 5.11 million SOL sold, about $830 million, at an average price of $163, maintaining selling pressure above SOL. Spot buying is real, but the expectation of a rate hike in September still looms overhead; managing position size is more important than guessing direction. Right now, many people are worried that there might be an interest rate hike in September, and whether this means the BTC and ETH bull market is about to end? Currently, the market has priced in a 66% probability of a rate hike in September. So let's objectively think about whether the Federal Reserve can actually raise rates and whether it dares to continue raising rates? Let's just say, even if there really is a rate hike in September, so what? One key point everyone needs to understand is that even if the Federal Reserve hasn't officially started raising rates, the market has already completed part of a disguised rate hike in advance. After Powell's speech, the two-year US Treasury yield directly rose by 15 basis points, meaning the market has already effectively raised rates in advance, whether or not you raise rates, the market has already done so. The negative impact of the rate hike has already been reflected on the charts to some extent; what needed to fall has already fallen once. Under these circumstances, even if the rate hike is actually implemented later, the impact won't be particularly large, as expectations have already been largely priced in. To say it again, this round of correction would have come sooner or later even without Powell's hawkish remarks; his speech just acted as a fuse. After a big surge, a period of consolidation and profit-taking is normal market behavior. In the long term, this wave will definitely see BTC break 120,000 and ETH 5,000 $OKB Finally, OpenSea has officially launched Solana NFT trading. Counting from the 2022 beta version, Solana is the first non-EVM chain it has supported in 4 years, so this cannot be simply described as a new listing. The entry value of an NFT marketplace depends on whether users can see assets from multiple chains in one place. OpenSea supporting Solana means it no longer only competes with the Ethereum NFT market but instead competes for cross-chain collectors and trading liquidity. This is what I believe to be the true moat of an NFT platform, including but not limited to wallets, search, trading, royalties, discovery, and cross-chain distribution. Of course, after cross-chain integration, wallet, signature, and security issues become more complex. When choosing an NFT platform, remember to check chain coverage, official contracts, and signature prompts. Don’t just look at trading volume, and don’t assume all collections are safe just because the platform supports a new chain. It is recommended to test with a small wallet first and not connect your main wallet directly to a new page."TRUMP: The real big market move may not have started yet" Recently, $TRUMP hasn't shown any particularly strong trend. The current price is around $2.4, having dropped more than 96% from the all-time high of $73.43; but since hitting a historical low of about $1.37 in mid-August, the price has started to show clear low-level oscillations. So now, simply discussing "whether it can fall further" is no longer very meaningful. What I am more concerned about is this: In the next two months, $TRUMP may enter a very sensitive political trading cycle. The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are approaching. November 3rd is the official voting day. And TRUMP, as a Meme coin, is highly tied to Donald Trump's personal political influence. So from now on, market trading may no longer be just about candlestick charts. Instead, it will be about: Trump's approval ratings, the Republican Party's election prospects, and the market's expectations for the midterm election results. Surveys at the end of August showed Trump's approval rating at only 33%, and Democratic voters' enthusiasm to vote is clearly higher than that of Republicans. The market already has an "election expectation gap" to speculate on. What Meme coins excel at is: trading expectations first. Assuming Trump's camp ultimately performs very poorly, then the market will be trading not just on "how many seats the Republicans lost." Instead, assets like $TRUMP, which heavily rely on Trump's personal narrative, could very likely face a very severe valuation compression.The market is stuck. BTC and ETH are both consolidating sideways. The 78000 level is like a stubborn band-aid, neither removable nor shakeable. The trading volume at 79500 is like a fly's leg—too little for bulls to even wedge in, and not enough to scare bears away. ETH continues to be squeezed, oscillating between 2350 and 2480 with a suffocatingly narrow range. SOL is playing dead, ZEC is lying flat; forget about momentum trades, there’s not even a hint of wind—just funds inside the market digging into each other's pockets. TRUMP and LAB occasionally twitch, chasing them leads to getting stuck, and running late means getting buried. ZORA’s surge at dawn was like a ghost; retail investors woke up to find the bull already gone, leaving only the cold wind at the peak. BTC is steady as an old dog, while altcoins jump up and down—not sector rotation, but a liquidity meat grinder. Remember, pumping to dump isn’t charity; they’re eyeing the small change in your account. In terms of strategy, BTC won’t move without volume breaking 80000; Ethereum won’t be watched unless it holds above 2520. For small coins, if you’re itchy, take a 1% position to try your luck; profit or loss is fate, don’t get carried away. Stop losses must be decisive, and your posture should look good. Bottom fishing? Wait for a dip to 75000 first; right now, it’s all mid-mountain. Don’t let candlesticks set the rhythm; most news is noise. Employment data? Wash? It’s all a script, just an excuse for volatility. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 OIL IS BACK ABOVE $90, AND MACRO IS GETTING LOUDER Bitcoin is trading around $78,780 as tensions in the Middle East intensify and shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz increase. The headline is geopolitical. But the more important story for Bitcoin is what happens to oil, inflation and liquidity. Rising Brent crude back above $90 could increase inflation expectations. Higher inflation expectations can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. If markets begin pricing fewer or later rate cuts, Treasury yields could rise and liquidity conditions could tighten. That creates pressure on risk assets, including crypto. The transmission chain is what matters: Geopolitical tension → oil rises → inflation expectations increase → Fed expectations shift → yields and liquidity change → BTC reacts. At the same time, there is another side to the story. During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, some investors may view Bitcoin as an alternative hedge alongside traditional assets such as gold. But that doesn't mean BTC automatically becomes a safe-haven asset every time tensions escalate. Short-term liquidity still matters. That's why I'm not trying to trade the headline itself. I'm watching the variables underneath it. Brent crude. U.S. Treasury yields. Dollar strength ETF flows And most importantly, how Bitcoin reacts to them BTC is currently around $78.8K, so the market is still sitting in an important decision area If oil stabilizes and yields stop climbing, risk appetite could gradually improve and give Bitcoin another opportunity to strengthen If oil continues higher while yields rise sharply, the pressure on BTC could increase even if the long-term structure remains constructive Personally, I'm still leaning toward a gradual return of bullish conditions. But I don't think this is the moment for blind speculation The market can change direction quickly when geopolitics and monetary policy collide Don't trade the headline Trade the transmission. Watch oil. Watch yields. Watch liquidity. Then watch how BTC responds. $BTC $ETH $SOL Since the last purchase of 520 $BTC by $MSTR at an average price of about $67,068 between June 15 and 21, after more than two months, MSTR has bought Bitcoin again, this time purchasing 4,603 coins at an average price of $80,318, with a total value of $369.7 million. During these two-plus months, MSTR sold a total of 6,948 BTC, receiving approximately $430 million, with an average price around $62,000. From a mathematical perspective, this does seem a bit like a "losing trade," but given the circumstances at the time, selling BTC to repurchase preferred stock was also the right move. In the past week, Strategy sold 4,531,421 shares of MSTR common stock on the market through ATM, generating $602.8 million in revenue. Besides using $369.7 million to buy Bitcoin, it also used $151.8 million to repurchase $STRC, paid $50.7 million in STRC dividends, and increased cash reserves by $30 million. Currently, MSTR still has a remaining issuance capacity of $19.0908 billion under the ATM. While everyone is focused on the price of Bitcoin, a warning signal has first emerged from Japan. The 2-year interest rate is 1.746%. This is the highest level in 31 years. Even more concerning is the yen. The interest rate spread between the US and Japan for 2-year bonds has narrowed to 2.64%, yet the yen has broken through the 160 yen per US dollar mark. This means the market is paying attention to more than just simple interest rate differences. Yen carry trades. Borrowing cheap yen to invest in overseas risk assets. Bitcoin may also be affected by these funds. The problem arises when the yen suddenly strengthens. The burden of repaying borrowed yen gradually increases, investors may sell assets like Bitcoin to convert to cash. This kind of movement also occurred in August 2024. At that time, Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped by 20%. The Bank of Japan's rate hike in September itself is not important, what matters more is how much of the accumulated yen carry positions remain. Japan injected as much as 15.4 trillion yen, or 97 billion USD, from late July to late August. However, the yen once again broke through 160 yen. Even with rate hikes, the currency still weakens, this is the core variable now. More important than the Bank of Japan's decision in September is the sharp rise in the yen → the extent of carry trade liquidation needs closer monitoring. Even if Bitcoin holds at $79,000, if this trend changes, the situation could be different. Will the risks originating from Japan truly be reflected in the price?Continuing from the last part, let's talk about why I suddenly became a fan of $ZEC and believe it is very likely to outperform BTC and ETH in this cycle. There are four reasons: 1. Asset Form - If you entered the crypto space around 2017-2018, you must have heard the phrase "Bitcoin is gold, Litecoin is silver." At that time, Litecoin also lacked "empowering" features like smart contracts; it was just a faster, cheaper BTC fork. But because it came early, the market gave it the asset attribute of "silver." I remember back then some people forcibly attributed the functional property of "Bitcoin code testing ground" to LTC, trying to find value support for it. Later, BTC went through Lightning Network, various forks, the big block vs. small block debate, then inscriptions, runes, L2, Taproot, RGB... After two or three cycles of turmoil, the market voted with its feet and concluded that only BTC itself has value. The consensus of digital gold was basically established, both for retail investors and Wall Street. All other so-called "functional" things were left to ETH, Solana, and other chains. Thus, we entered a new phase. On one hand, the crypto space is best at "issuing assets," which peaked during the pump era. On the other hand, with the failure of the older generation represented by LTC and the newer generation represented by inscriptions, the label of "non-functional long-term valuable asset" still belongs only to BTC. So people joke that BTC is the biggest Meme. Doge, Pepe, etc., might count as half? But first, their market caps are not large enough, and they haven't survived long enough. Second, you can say BTC is a Meme, but it's hard to say the top Memes are digital gold or silver. The market has actually been looking for a second "non-functional long-term valuable" digital asset besides BTC. This asset cannot be a pure Meme but can be regarded as a Meme. This asset must be like BTC but sufficiently different from BTC. It must have a very unique attribute of its own, not just "faster, cheaper BTC" or "BTC code testing ground" like LTC. This asset must have gone through at least one full bull and bear cycle and lived long enough. Because for non-functional assets, history itself is part of the value. More importantly, it must answer a big question that BTC itself cannot answer but is equally grand. BTC solves the problem of public, verifiable, censorship-resistant digital scarcity; ZEC complements the other side: it turns "privacy" itself into a monetary attribute. More interestingly, this privacy does not require everyone to use it. Institutions can hold transparently and accept audits, while individuals still have the option to enter a private state when needed. So what ZEC truly offers is a "right to privacy for everyone." It has a monetary asset DNA similar to BTC but also has a distinct, irreplaceable independent attribute. So after thinking it through, I found ZEC is the best candidate, bar none. 2. Market Preference - Whether this rebound or bull market, you will find pure Memes and VC air coins are not favored. Besides BTC, only two types of assets have heat. One is those with good data, real users, and revenue, represented by Hyperliquid and Uniswap. The other is assets institutions are willing to hold and buy, including the first data-driven type and those institutions are optimistic about or can temporarily ignore current data for some reason, represented by XRP, ZEC, and TAO. In other words, if this cycle has an altcoin season, you should buy altcoins favored and repriced by institutional funds, not those favored by retail. 3. Chip Structure - ZEC has two highs: 700 in November last year and 880 in 2018. The 700 level has been broken. As long as it effectively breaks the major previous high of 880 from 2018, ZEC will enter a price discovery range with almost no trapped positions in mainstream trading history. Everyone must remember the price rallies after BTC broke previous highs. Compared to BTC's trapped positions at 80,000-100,000 and ETH's at 3,000-4,000, the potential selling pressure after ZEC breaks 880 is much better than those two chip structures. Moreover, these are highs from 8 years ago. Theoretically, after breaking 700 now, there should be no large trapped positions above. 4. Consensus Divergence - My impression is that Naval was the first to call ZEC's start, and then this consensus gradually spread, with more retail and institutions accepting it. But at the same time, bigger divergences arose due to ZEC's rise. Currently, Western consensus on ZEC is higher than Eastern, possibly because Western culture is naturally more sensitive and attentive to privacy than Asia. Looking at crypto history, heat plus divergence is the biggest driver for a token's rise. Look back at BTC in 2013, ETH in 2017, Solana in 2021, inscriptions in 2023, etc. All rose amid huge controversies. Market-wide consensus doesn't form quickly, but once it does, the peak is usually near. Think about "always lacking storage" two months ago and "the best summer of Korean girl group golden age"... So after breaking 700, I buy when the price is right, and once it completely breaks 880, I stop buying. Of course, nothing is perfect; I think ZEC can outperform BTC and ETH, but when it falls, its risk is also much higher than those two, so DYOR.$XRP Behind XRP's 40% Surge: Who's Buying, Who's Running? XRP has surged 40% in the past two weeks, but interestingly, futures open interest has dropped by 16%. Funds are rotating — retail and leveraged funds are closing positions and withdrawing on exchanges outside CME, leveraged funds' net shorts have more than doubled, while CME's institutional holdings have increased from 10% to 17%. On the other hand, spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling $1.6 billion, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and Jane Street continuously accumulating. In short, this is not a retail sentiment-driven leveraged bull run, but institutions positioning through the ETF channel. Short sellers are adding positions while longs are absorbing them simultaneously, making the battle very intense. $XRP

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