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Look at this $BTC historical cycle chart; the bear market progress bar has already reached 84%.
Many people wonder: the bear market is almost over, so why hasn't the true bottom been hit yet?
Reviewing history, in every past bear market around August to September, the situation was almost exactly the same.
When you are in the moment, you can't perceive that there will be another drop; only by looking back and reviewing can you see that this is just a consolidation.
Right now, the market atmosphere is extremely oppressive, and the entire network is pushing you to accept: the bull market has already started, so hurry and get on board.
Of course, I can also find a bunch of bullish arguments to support the bull market narrative.
But if this is the turning point now, it means three things are true simultaneously:
1. Bitcoin's inherent four-year cycle rule is directly invalidated
2. The bottom is realized early, and everyone collectively succeeded in bottom-fishing
3. The historical bear market bottom's time and data model is completely obsolete
I don't rule out the possibility that "this time is different," but I won't bet my position on such a low-probability scenario.
Historical average estimates place the bottom of this cycle in late October.
Don't be fooled by the current rebound; the closer to the end of the cycle, the more dangerous the bull traps become.
🔴 Key price levels
Bullish target: 83000
Bearish target: 71000
Once 71000 is effectively broken, the space for a deep correction fully opens.
$BTC $ETH #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
⚠️ Cycle projections are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice$BTC SEPTEMBER MAY BE ABOUT THE DATA, NOT THE CANDLESTICKS
Bitcoin enters September with a strong August behind it, but the market still hasn't resolved the battle around $80K.
That makes the next phase more interesting.
BTC has already shown that buyers are willing to step in around the $77K region.
At the same time, every attempt to push through the upper range has met resistance.
So instead of asking whether Bitcoin is bullish or bearish, I'm watching what can finally force the range to break.
Right now, the biggest candidate is macro.
Friday's U.S. jobs report could significantly influence expectations around the Federal Reserve's next decision.
If employment weakens meaningfully, traders could start reducing expectations for tighter policy.
That could improve liquidity conditions and give risk assets more room to recover.
Bitcoin would then have a chance to challenge the $80K–$81K zone again.
But if the labor market remains stronger than expected, the opposite reaction could develop.
Higher yields.
Stronger dollar.
Tighter financial conditions.
More pressure on BTC and the rest of crypto.
That's why September could become less about technical patterns and more about how quickly expectations change.
The ETF picture also deserves attention.
Spot BTC ETFs attracted roughly $924M between August 24 and 28, while spot ETH ETFs saw around $824M during the same period.
That's meaningful demand.
But BTC still struggled to hold above $80K.
This creates an important question:
Is the market absorbing institutional buying, or is resistance simply too strong right now?
The answer should become clearer if price breaks out of the current range.
For BTC, I'm watching:
$77K — buyers need to defend it.
$79.4K–$80.8K — sellers need to be absorbed.
$81K+ — a sustained breakout would change the short-term picture.
For ETH, I'm watching whether it can maintain relative strength while BTC consolidates.
For SOL and XRP, the key is whether broader liquidity eventually reaches higher beta assets. Another emergency situation has occurred in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran claims that a large oil tanker caught fire after hitting a mine near the Strait of Hormuz, but the US has denied this claim.
The accounts from both sides have not fully aligned yet, but the news itself is already sensitive enough.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy transportation routes. If the safety of vessels here is compromised, the impact will quickly spread to oil prices, shipping, and insurance markets.
What’s more notable is that many ships have recently chosen to avoid this route.
If it’s just a one-time incident, the market can digest it without much difficulty.
The concern is if similar incidents happen repeatedly.
Once shipowners, insurers, and energy companies generally start treating the Strait of Hormuz as a high-risk area, energy transportation costs may continue to rise.
So, I will be focusing on two signals going forward:
Whether more ships suspend passage, and whether insurance and shipping costs continue to increase.
These two changes are more worth watching than the news of an “oil tanker fire” itself.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 More people are paying attention to UNI, so let me analyze it!
The founder of this coin cashed out long ago, and the early foundation kept selling tokens nonstop.
Initially, there were 1 billion tokens, about 110 million have been burned. You should know that in the earliest votes, the protocol fee switch A16 was opposed because it held the most chips.
However, recently with support from Robinhood Chain and xlayer, it seems to have revitalized RWA growth, so it hasn't fallen behind.
But compared to HYPE, it seems to lag a lot. What UNI can do, exchanges nowadays do better. So why not just settle for platform tokens?
For example, BNB and OKB have more reliable platform backgrounds and offer more holding benefits than UNI.
Looking at UNI's candlestick chart, from the lowest point of 3.3U in June 2022 to now, four years have passed, and the price still hovers below $5. Can you stand that?
Of course, the price surges are real with volume, but unfortunately, few have faith; basically, once a pump happens, people leave, so the price never really rises.
Additionally, UNI was originally designed to have up to 2% annual inflation after 4 years, which hasn't been activated yet; I also remember there was a sushi coin targeting it, claiming a fixed total supply but later increased issuance, which basically ruined it.
My view is that UNI is only good for short-term trading—buy the rise and sell. The overall market environment is like this now; unlike early altcoins where just holding could yield several to tenfold gains in a bull market, that effect is no longer achievable. This is a tough market shift, and denial won't help!9.1 Morning Brief｜📝
This Friday is the non-farm payrolls report; JPMorgan warns of a "good news is bad news" scenario, with geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices higher.
US Stocks: The three major indices closed lower with mixed sector performance. Utilities plunged, crypto-related stocks bucked the trend and strengthened $COIN $MSTR $Circle, Tesla and SanDisk surged, while Amazon fell after being sued by the FTC.
Crypto: $437 million liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions damaged, BTC consolidates awaiting new catalysts.
⚠️For information sharing only, not investment advice.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC ENTERS SEPTEMBER AT A CROSSROADS
Bitcoin just finished a strong August, but the transition into September could be very different.
The rally pushed BTC sharply higher, yet the market couldn't establish a clean breakout above $80K.
Now price is sitting in a familiar battle zone:
$77K = key support
$79.4K–$80.8K = major resistance
Between those levels, I don't think there is much reason to force a directional call.
The bigger catalyst is coming from outside the chart.
Friday's U.S. jobs report.
Markets are currently paying close attention to the possibility of a September Fed rate hike after recent hawkish comments.
That expectation matters because crypto remains highly sensitive to liquidity conditions.
If the labor market shows meaningful weakness, rate-hike expectations could cool.
That could pressure yields lower and improve the environment for risk assets.
In that scenario, Bitcoin could get another opportunity to attack $80K.
But if the employment data remains unexpectedly strong, the market could price in tighter policy for longer.
That would potentially strengthen the dollar, push yields higher and make the path above $80K much harder.
So the next BTC move may be less about what traders want to happen and more about what the macro data forces the market to price.
There's another signal I don't want to ignore.
Despite roughly $924M of spot BTC ETF inflows from August 24–28, Bitcoin still struggled to establish itself above $80K.
That's a fascinating battle.
Real capital is entering.
But sellers are still absorbing that demand near resistance.
Ethereum is showing strong institutional interest as well, with roughly $824M flowing into spot ETH ETFs over the same period.
If ETH continues attracting capital while BTC stabilizes, the market could eventually transition from Bitcoin-led strength toward broader crypto participation.
But I wouldn't assume that rotation is guaranteed.
First, Bitcoin needs to prove that the current range can resolve higher. $BTC High volatility, $ETH relatively strong, ETF funds continue to provide support, but short-term divergence is already emerging. 1. Market Performance: BTC Holds Below $80,000, ETH Relatively Stronger BTC is currently around $78,800 and has been rising over the past seven days, but $80,000 has clearly become a short-term resistance level. BTC's cumulative gain in August was nearly 25%, the best month since November 2024. However, September historically tends to be weak, so now it seems more like digesting earlier gains at high levels rather than continuing to accelerate one-sidedly. ETH is currently around $2460–$2480, with a slight 24-hour increase, and its performance over the past month has clearly outperformed BTC. More importantly, ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of about $824 million in the past week, indicating that this ETH rally is not just following BTC's rally; institutional funds are also entering simultaneously. As for altcoins (altcoins), not all coins are rising at the same time. $SOL Around $100, there are still signs of BTC rotating into high-beta assets like SOL; HYPE has also maintained strong performance recently. Conversely, some coins like SUI and AVAX have clearly pulled back in recent days, indicating that funds are still concentrated in a few strong sectors rather than widespread spread. 2. Liquidity Side: ETFs are still being bought, but BTC is starting to show "capital inflows, no price breakouts"—this phenomenon is most worth watching today. August 24 to 28, US spot BTC Frankly, the current market is a tug-of-war that has everyone feeling uneasy—afraid of chasing highs and getting stuck, yet also afraid of missing out, caught in a dilemma.
Actually, it’s not that complicated. Although $BTC hasn’t dropped yet, ETF funds have already started net outflows, and the Bitcoin balance on exchanges is increasing, indicating some are distributing at highs, but the buying funds haven’t caught up.
This rally is mainly driven by US liquidity injections; fundamentals haven’t substantially improved, and short-term profit-taking has also accumulated.
Technically, 77,000 is the short-term lifeline. Once broken, it could trigger a stampede, possibly dropping directly to around 73,000. On the upside, 81,000 is a strong resistance level; only a breakout with volume counts as a true breakout, otherwise, it will likely oscillate around 80,000.
So my view is:
Mid-term remains bullish, with loose macro liquidity and ongoing institutional allocations, so there’s still room ahead.
Short-term, I lean towards a pullback or consolidation, given ETF outflows, increased exchange coin stacking, and September historically being a weaker month; the market needs time to digest.
A real directional breakout may have to wait until after the Federal Reserve meeting in late September. The best strategy now is to patiently wait for a pullback and not rush in. Opportunities come from waiting, not chasing.
$BTC $ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC IS ENTERING SEPTEMBER WITH A MACRO DECISION AHEAD
Bitcoin's August rally was impressive, but the market enters September with a very different setup.
$BTC gained roughly 23% in August, recovering strongly from the lows before eventually running into heavy resistance around the $80K area.
Now the question isn't simply whether Bitcoin can keep climbing.
The bigger question is whether the next macro catalyst gives buyers enough fuel to break the ceiling.
And Friday's U.S. jobs report could be one of the most important pieces of that puzzle.
The market has been increasingly focused on the possibility of a September rate hike following hawkish Federal Reserve commentary.
That matters because Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity and interest-rate expectations.
If employment data comes in weaker than expected, markets could begin reducing rate-hike expectations.
Lower rate expectations could ease pressure on yields and risk assets, potentially giving BTC another opportunity to challenge the $80K–$81K region.
But a stronger labor report could produce the opposite reaction.
Higher rate expectations.
Higher yields.
Stronger dollar.
More pressure on risk assets.
So the jobs report isn't just another economic release.
It could change the short-term market narrative.
Technically, Bitcoin is still trapped between important levels.
Support: $77K
Resistance: $79.4K–$80.8K
A sustained break above resistance would strengthen the bullish case and potentially reopen the path toward the recent highs.
But losing $77K would weaken the current structure and could bring lower support levels back into focus.
The ETF data adds another interesting layer.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $924M between August 24 and 28, yet BTC still struggled to establish a decisive move above $80K.
That tells us something important:
There is demand.
But there is also significant supply waiting at higher prices.
Ethereum is showing a similar institutional story.
ETH ETFs attracted roughly $824M during the same period
$BTC $ETH $SOL $XRP ETH pulled up from around $1900 to the doorstep of $2500 in August, but failed to hold steady several times by the end of the month. The price returned to around $2440, with a monthly gain still close to 30%, but the daily momentum has cooled down.
Many people only focus on the moment of the breakout, but I pay more attention to whether there is sustained trading above $2500. Pushing past and then being pushed back often indicates that the funds in the market are not yet ready to lift this rally into a new platform.
Right now, $2400 is the short-term dividing line. Holding it can be understood as a turnover after the rise, and the $2450 to $2500 range still has opportunities for repeated testing. If it breaks below and fails to recover for a long time, the area around $2200 will come back into view.
The previous rally was too fast, with leverage and profit-taking clustered together. The most common scenario during volatility is that it looks fine during the day, but suddenly a spike at night clears positions on both sides.
Macroeconomic variables are also on the table. Employment data will affect the market's judgment on the September interest rate path; weaker data will ease liquidity pressure, while stronger data may cool risk appetite first.
This ETH rebound is not just driven by sentiment; funds still have expectations for on-chain activity and staking yields, but short-term prices still cannot escape the macro rhythm.
For now, I do not consider $2500 as a confirmed breakout. The trend will be more comfortable if it can digest above $2400 for a few days and then turn $2500 into support underfoot. If it only rallies on news and then falls back, the stronger it looks, the more room should be left for a pullback $ETH
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)Bitcoin Is Holding $78K. Friday’s Jobs Report Could Decide What Comes Next.
$BTC is entering September with the market caught between strong August momentum and a much tougher macro environment.
Bitcoin gained roughly 23% in August, but failed to hold the move above $80K.
Now the next major catalyst is already on the calendar.
The U.S. jobs report.
My radar:
🟠 $BTC — $77K support, $79.4K–$80.8K resistance
🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength
🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity
🟢 $XRP — watching institutional demand
The jobs report matters because the Federal Reserve is facing a difficult decision.
Markets are currently pricing around a 60% probability of a September rate hike after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
But that expectation can change quickly if employment data comes in weaker than expected. 0
That is why Friday's number could become the next major trigger for risk assets.
A weak jobs report could reduce rate-hike expectations.
Lower rate expectations could support liquidity.
And that could give Bitcoin another opportunity to challenge $80K.
But a stronger-than-expected labor report could have the opposite effect.
Higher rate expectations.
Higher yields.
More pressure on risk assets.
That is the macro battle happening underneath the chart.
Technically, the structure is still clear.
Buyers defended the $77K area.
But sellers continue to appear around $80K.
Bitcoin is therefore sitting between important support and resistance while the market waits for a catalyst. 1
There is also an interesting institutional signal.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $924M between August 24 and 28.
Yet price still failed to break $80K.
That suggests strong demand is being met by significant selling pressure.
This is where $ETH becomes interesting.
Ethereum ETFs also attracted around $824M during the same period, showing that institutional demand is not limited to Bitcoin.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BTCGoldCorrelation #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The biggest event this week: a flood of employment data releases, putting Waller's hawkish stance to the test.
Last week at Jackson Hole, he declared—until inflation is under control, rate hikes will continue in September. The market immediately priced in a 60% chance of a rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields surged, and both BTC and gold came under pressure.
Now all eyes are on this week's data: ADP, initial jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls take turns releasing. Last time in July, nonfarm payrolls dropped by 23,000, a negative surprise. If the data disappoints again, rate hike expectations might cool down; if the data beats expectations, Waller will have reason to stay hawkish, and risk assets will have to keep enduring.
Summary: This week, the market is fully data-driven. Don't rush in without direction; it's safer to wait for the results before making moves. 😏我之前写过一篇文章。 在文章里，我类比了$ZORA 和$0G 的合约数据，给出了一个判断——这两个币最近的走势很像。 当时，我根据$ZORA 的走势推断$0G 的走势，说$0G 大概率还会再拉一波。 我目前依然这么觉得。 —————————————————— 我们看一下$ZORA 和$0G 的走势。 我们仔细观察可以发现，$ZORA 在早期的上涨阶段也是有一次平台期的。 而后，它是直接突破了平台期，并且往上暴涨了许多。 我认为，$0G 大概率也能突破平台期。 所以，这个时候暂时还不能空进去。 —————————————————— 我们再看一下$0G 的合约数据。 我们可以发现，它现在的合约多空比和持仓量都开始逐步稳定。 这就说明，目前$0G 的庄家正在努力维持住平台期的价格。 为什么要维持这个价格？ 如果是为了出货，那它的合约多空比大概率会往上涨更多，而不是只有现在的这种小幅上涨。 所以，我个人更倾向于是准备突破。 —————————————————— 综上所述，目前不太适合做空。 我个人认为，目前最稳妥的策略是等它往上再猛拉一波之后考虑做空。 对于这种山寨，我认为尽量要在有把握的价The BTCFi race is fiercely contested—can Core DAO truly stand out?
⚠️ Risk Warning: The content is for industry logic discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Trillions in dormant BTC assets are seeking yield channels, and BTCFi has become the core theme of this bull market. The track is crowded with contenders: Babylon, STX, Merlin, and Core DAO each follow different paths. Many community members ask: amid intense competition, does Core have a chance to break through?
First, recognize the landscape: it’s difficult for a single giant to dominate the BTCFi track; the future will likely see segmentation and division, with different solutions serving different capital needs.
Babylon positions itself as a pure BTC re-staking tool with a simple model—users can rent out native BTC to earn network security yields without needing additional tokens, favored by minimalistic Bitcoin holders. However, its drawback is clear: it’s only an infrastructure protocol without an independent smart contract public chain, unable to support lending, payments, RWA, and other complete ecosystems, inherently limiting its potential.
Stacks, as a veteran Bitcoin Layer 2, has a solid institutional foundation, with staking STX to earn BTC yields forming a stable narrative. But its fatal bottleneck is incompatibility with EVM; its unique programming language raises developer barriers, making it hard to capture Ethereum’s vast DeFi overflow capital. Its token has no hard cap, leading to long-term inflation that suppresses its valuation ceiling.
Merlin Chain focuses on ZK-Rollup Bitcoin Layer 2, supports EVM, and attracts many retail users through BRC20 and inscriptions. But its ecosystem heavily depends on speculative hype, lacks a native non-custodial BTC staking system, and most assets rely on cross-chain wrapping, making it hard to appeal to large Bitcoin institutional funds seeking extreme security.
In contrast, Core DAO takes an independent L1 public chain route, possessing a unique differentiated moat in the track. Relying on Satoshi Plus consensus, it leverages Bitcoin’s hash power network-wide to secure the network while fully compatible with EVM, allowing all Ethereum DeFi applications to migrate and deploy at low cost. Unlike various wrapped BTC solutions, Core supports native Bitcoin mainnet time-locked staking, with users holding their private keys, no cross-chain wrapping or asset transfer needed, meeting the core security demands of conservative BTC whales.
With a dual staking mechanism, BTC paired with CORE can stake for higher-tier yields. The b14g network has been widely implemented, continuously driving long-term CORE lock-up demand. The long-term roadmap is clear: staking infrastructure, SatPay encrypted payments, DeFi, and RWA coordinated development aiming to build a complete BTCFi ecosystem closed loop; the token supply approaches 2.1 billion with an inflation end point, mirroring Bitcoin’s deflationary narrative.
Behind the opportunities lie unavoidable risks. The 81-year continuous block reward release means long-term inflationary selling pressure is the biggest mid-to-long-term constraint; high-tier dual staking requires holding both BTC and CORE, posing a participation barrier for pure BTC holders. SatPay’s full public test, ecosystem fee revenue buybacks, and other core narratives remain in the expectation phase; currently, the number of blockbuster ecosystem applications is insufficient, and TVL growth speed needs validation.
For Core to stand out amid fierce competition, four key inflection signals matter: b14g staking native BTC quantity continuously hitting new highs; steady user growth after SatPay’s official launch; normalized fee buyback mechanisms to hedge inflation; and attracting a large influx of external DeFi and RWA projects.
In the long run, the track’s demand naturally segments: capital seeking simple staking yields chooses Babylon; inscription and short-term speculative funds prefer Merlin; native Bitcoin developers opt for Stacks. Core targets incremental capital that values BTC asset security while needing a complete EVM smart contract ecosystem.
If subsequent major products launch as scheduled and cash flow flywheels connect, Core is poised to secure the independent L1 BTCFi leader position and relatively stand out; if ecosystem rollouts continue to delay, track competition will persist long-term, making it difficult to break out with a major independent rally.
Competition in this track has never been about short-term hype; the ultimate outcome depends on who first converts grand narratives into sustained on-chain demand.
Who do you think among the many BTCFi projects is most likely to become the ultimate winner? Share your thoughts in the comments.On the first day of September, $BTC did not continue the August frenzy, which is normal. The rise from 63,000 to 81,000 was too fast and needs time for turnover. Large holders on-chain are still buying, but exchange balances are rising and ETF inflows are slowing down, so the structure is not as clean. From today through this week, the focus is on whether trading volume shrinks. If volume contracts and price moves sideways, there is still a chance for an upward attack later; if volume expands and breaks below 76,000, September may start weak. The forecast first looks at the 75,000–82,000 range box.Rumors of institutional entry are spreading in the community, but the $CORE market remains in a low-level consolidation phase, showing a temperature gap between capital flow and public opinion.
There are no signs of increased large on-chain transfers or exchange withdrawals; among the 44.14 million staked nodes, early stock remains dominant, with no new institutional addresses clustering to accumulate tokens.
A recently occurred node reward distribution vulnerability disrupted the rhythm; formal institutions' risk control mechanisms usually proactively extend the observation window after faults. The stability of inflation and reward models is being tested.
The expected buying support clashes with real-world risk control hesitation, making it difficult for short-term narrative premiums to directly convert into sustained spot buying power. Capital is waiting for more reliable technical guidance.
If leading asset managers officially disclose their entry channels and large cold wallets begin continuous withdrawals and locking, a volume breakout through resistance zones will naturally fulfill upward expectations. However, this path will immediately fail if large on-chain selling pressure emerges.
If the protocol repair period continues to extend or market confidence in inflation and real revenue models weakens again, existing positions may exit early to avoid risk. Once the current grinding support is lost, a deeper valuation correction will be triggered.
If native on-chain staking experiences an unexpectedly explosive inflow, the current wait-and-see logic will be directly disproven.
The most important variable to watch in the coming week is whether exchanges experience abnormal large net outflows for more than three consecutive days.
#Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估 #Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块$CRCLCIRCLE current price 94.8, 24h up 6.21%, after-hours stock surged to 95.55 but token premium is -0.78%. News is hot, daily RSI reached 73.9, I find it quite conflicted, let's break it down below.
📰 News: The stock was consecutively highlighted positively by TradingKey and MarketBeat, and on Monday it also followed Tesla onto the market cap movers list, sentiment is quite strong.
🔧 Technical: Daily RSI14=73.9 overbought, MACD red bars expanding, price close to the upper Bollinger band at 100.87, deviation is a bit large.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens only +0.06%, liquidity is thin after hours, such isolated rallies are prone to retracement.
🎯 Today's view: Bearish, positive news fully priced in, technicals overbought, and token lacks stock premium support, short-term leans toward risk release.
📊 Token 94.80 (+6.21%) | Stock 95.55 (+9.65%) | Premium -0.78% | US stock after-hours
💎 Summary: Watch if the stock can hold the high level and the speed of RSI decline to guard against sentiment fading.
#USStockTokens
#CRCLFollowUp
#NasdaqAfterHoursObservation #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 The Impact of the US-Iran Conflict on the Cryptocurrency Market Shows Clear Dual and Phased Characteristics, with Short-Term Dominated by Panic-Driven Volatility and Medium to Long-Term Gradually Reshaping Market Perception of Crypto Asset Value.
📉 Short-Term Shock: Intense Volatility Amid Panic
Risk Assets Sold Off Collectively: The escalation of the conflict triggers a global "risk-off" sentiment, with institutional investors prioritizing the sale of high-beta risk assets like cryptocurrencies, shifting to traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold, directly causing a sharp short-term drop in coin prices.
High-Leverage Cascade Liquidations: The 24/7 continuous trading nature of the crypto market rapidly amplifies geopolitical panic, triggering cascade liquidations of high-leverage positions in derivatives markets, creating a negative feedback loop of "price drop → liquidation → intensified selling pressure," significantly increasing the volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Synchronized Liquidity Tightening: The conflict pushes up oil prices and inflation expectations, delaying market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, maintaining a high interest rate environment, further tightening liquidity that crypto markets heavily depend on, suppressing overall valuations.
📈 Medium-Term Recovery: Partial Highlighting of Safe-Haven Attributes
Surge in Hedging Demand in Specific Regions: In the Middle East, constrained by sanctions, fiat currency depreciation, and cross-border payment obstacles, cryptocurrencies become core tools for circumventing traditional financial controls, preserving assets, and transferring value across borders, leading to a noticeable increase in on-chain activity of related stablecoins and major coins.
Partial Strengthening of the "Digital Gold" Narrative: When the traditional financial system faces uncertainty due to the conflict, some long-term capital re-recognizes Bitcoin's decentralized and censorship-resistant attributes, using it as an alternative asset to hedge geopolitical risks, driving coin prices to gradually recover after sharp short-term declines.
Structural Opportunities in Niche Segments: Demand for privacy coins and anonymous payment tokens will rise in phases, while crypto projects related to the Middle East Web3 market will attract more funding attention.
📜 Long-Term Impact: Regulatory and Market Landscape Restructuring
Global Compliance and Regulation Tightening: To prevent cryptocurrencies from being used to circumvent economic sanctions on Iran, multiple countries will strengthen monitoring of cross-border crypto transfers; some exchanges will proactively restrict IP access and asset withdrawals from sanctioned regions, temporarily suppressing market risk appetite.
Global Recognition Upgrade of Crypto Assets: The conflict will make more traditional institutions realize the unique value of cryptocurrencies in extreme geopolitical scenarios, promoting crypto assets from "pure speculative assets" to gradually entering the mainstream major asset allocation watchlist, expanding the industry's application boundaries in the long term.
Investment carries risks; decisions should be made cautiously. Cryptocurrencies themselves are highly volatile risk assets, and past performance does not guarantee future returns. Bassett's statement this time is crucial: The Treasury Secretary personally said, "I cannot change the equilibrium price of bonds," but will work with Budget Director Russell Vought to advance fiscal consolidation and be "on the same page" with Fed Chair Wash on bond issues.
In plain language:
• Since Trump's inauguration, the 10Y US Treasury yield has basically been flat. Bassett does not speculate on the Fed's next move, nor does he admit to "suppressing yields," only saying he wants the market to operate smoothly;
• The Treasury plans to start larger-scale long-term bond buybacks on September 10, but Bassett himself admits buybacks are just a "speed bump," not the steering wheel; the equilibrium price is determined by deficits, supply, and inflation expectations;
• If you really want the long end to go down, it requires fiscal consolidation (cutting spending/increasing revenue) combined with Wash's restrained approach of "returning rates to the market," otherwise with $40 trillion debt plus over $1 trillion interest, buybacks won't hold for long.
What this means for crypto:
US Treasury equilibrium price won't come down → Tight US dollar financing environment → Risk asset valuation ceilings are suppressed. For BTC to have an independent bull market, either wait for fiscal consolidation to truly take effect and long-end yields to fall, or wait for stablecoin/ETF liquidity to overshadow macro constraints. Bassett's remarks effectively cut off the imagination space for "Treasury market rescue," so don't treat macro as purely bullish in the short term.Why does Bitcoin rise once every 4 years
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice, cryptocurrency market is highly volatile
It can be divided into six major layers: supply side, demand side, macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, chip and leverage, narrative and belief.
1. Supply side: Scarcity, four-year halving (fundamental basis)
Total permanent cap of 21 million coins, no additional issuance.
Halving occurs every 4 years, the daily new Bitcoin output by miners is cut in half, reducing new selling pressure in the market.
- Historical pattern: The market often trades ahead of halving expectations, major peaks mostly appear 12-18 months after halving.
- Current status: 94% of Bitcoin has been mined, new circulation is decreasing; a large amount of coins remain unmoved long-term (whales hoarding, cold wallets), exchange liquid chips decrease, so a small amount of funds can push prices up.
2. Demand side: Real buying pressure, institutions are the biggest variable this cycle
1. US spot ETFs
BlackRock and other ETFs provide pensions, family offices, and ordinary Americans a compliant channel to buy BTC; continuous net inflows into ETFs represent ongoing passive buying, the most important indicator of mid-term trends.
2. Listed companies hoarding coins (MicroStrategy, etc.)
Companies convert part of their cash into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, continuously buying and directly absorbing market circulating chips.
3. Global retail and high-net-worth allocations
Treat Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge fiat overissuance and geopolitical risks.
3. Macro liquidity (largest impact, primary short-term driver)
Bitcoin is a highly elastic risk asset, highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity.
1. Fed rate cut expectations, US Treasury yields decline
Risk-free interest rates fall, funds flow out of bonds into stocks, Bitcoin, and other risk assets; when Treasury yields surge, Bitcoin usually comes under pressure.
2. Dollar weakness makes Bitcoin priced in dollars easier to rise.
Simply put: In a loose liquidity environment, Bitcoin is more likely to bull; when liquidity tightens, even strong narratives are easily suppressed.
4. Regulatory policy expectations
- Positive: Clear US crypto legislation, softer SEC stance, ETF approvals, more countries allowing compliant holdings will open space for incremental capital inflows.
- Negative: Total bans, strict regulations directly suppress the market.
A large part of the bull market is trading on "expectations of improved regulation."
5. Chip structure + leverage short squeeze (short-term surge catalyst)
1. Long-term holders on-chain do not move: large amounts of BTC locked in cold wallets, not sold, shrinking circulating supply.
2. Derivatives leverage: Price breaks key resistance levels, large accumulated short positions are forcibly liquidated, shorts buying coins to close positions become passive buying pressure, further driving prices up, i.e., a short squeeze. Many rapid large bullish candles come from leverage liquidations, not all from spot buying.
6. Narrative belief: Value consensus
Two core narratives:
1. Inflation resistance, hedge against fiat depreciation: Governments can print money, but Bitcoin’s total supply cannot be changed.
2. Decentralized digital value storage, not controlled by any single country.
The narrative itself does not directly drive price up but attracts capital willing to allocate, turning the story into real money.
Conversely, what can interrupt the rise?
1. Fed raises rates again, liquidity tightens; Treasury yields continue rising.
2. ETFs shift from net inflows to sustained large redemptions, institutional funds withdraw.
3. Global economic crisis, all risk assets crash together.
4. Major negative regulatory news.
5. Excessive leverage accumulation followed by concentrated long liquidations and panic selling.
Summary in one sentence
Halving tightens supply as the foundation; macro liquidity determines the overall environment; ETFs and institutional funds provide incremental buying; regulation opens institutional space; leverage and sentiment amplify price swings.
Looking at a single factor alone leads to misjudgment; multiple factors must resonate together to produce a major bull market.The BTCFi race is fiercely contested—can Core DAO truly stand out?
⚠️ Risk Warning: The content is for industry logic discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Trillions in dormant BTC assets are seeking yield channels, and BTCFi has become the core theme of this bull market. The track is crowded with contenders: Babylon, STX, Merlin, and Core DAO each follow different paths. Many community members ask: amid intense competition, does Core have a chance to break through?
First, recognize the landscape: it’s difficult for a single giant to dominate the BTCFi track; the future will likely see segmentation and division, with different solutions serving different capital needs.
Babylon positions itself as a pure BTC re-staking tool with a simple model—users can rent out native BTC to earn network security yields without needing additional tokens, favored by minimalistic Bitcoin holders. However, its drawback is clear: it’s only an infrastructure protocol without an independent smart contract public chain, unable to support lending, payments, RWA, and other complete ecosystems, inherently limiting its potential.
Stacks, as a veteran Bitcoin Layer 2, has a solid institutional foundation, with staking STX to earn BTC yields forming a stable narrative. But its fatal bottleneck is incompatibility with EVM; its unique programming language raises developer barriers, making it hard to capture Ethereum’s vast DeFi overflow capital. Its token has no hard cap, leading to long-term inflation that suppresses its valuation ceiling.
Merlin Chain focuses on ZK-Rollup Bitcoin Layer 2, supports EVM, and attracts many retail users through BRC20 and inscriptions. But its ecosystem heavily depends on speculative hype, lacks a native non-custodial BTC staking system, and most assets rely on cross-chain wrapping, making it hard to appeal to large Bitcoin institutional funds seeking extreme security.
In contrast, Core DAO takes an independent L1 public chain route, possessing a unique differentiated moat in the track. Relying on Satoshi Plus consensus, it leverages Bitcoin’s hash power network-wide to secure the network while fully compatible with EVM, allowing all Ethereum DeFi applications to migrate and deploy at low cost. Unlike various wrapped BTC solutions, Core supports native Bitcoin mainnet time-locked staking, with users holding their private keys, no cross-chain wrapping or asset transfer needed, meeting the core security demands of conservative BTC whales.
With a dual staking mechanism, BTC paired with CORE can stake for higher-tier yields. The b14g network has been widely implemented, continuously driving long-term CORE lock-up demand. The long-term roadmap is clear: staking infrastructure, SatPay encrypted payments, DeFi, and RWA coordinated development aiming to build a complete BTCFi ecosystem closed loop; the token supply approaches 2.1 billion with an inflation end point, mirroring Bitcoin’s deflationary narrative.
Behind the opportunities lie unavoidable risks. The 81-year continuous block reward release means long-term inflationary selling pressure is the biggest mid-to-long-term constraint; high-tier dual staking requires holding both BTC and CORE, posing a participation barrier for pure BTC holders. SatPay’s full public test, ecosystem fee revenue buybacks, and other core narratives remain in the expectation phase; currently, the number of blockbuster ecosystem applications is insufficient, and TVL growth speed needs validation.
For Core to stand out amid fierce competition, four key inflection signals matter: b14g staking native BTC quantity continuously hitting new highs; steady user growth after SatPay’s official launch; normalized fee buyback mechanisms to hedge inflation; and attracting a large influx of external DeFi and RWA projects.
In the long run, the track’s demand naturally segments: capital seeking simple staking yields chooses Babylon; inscription and short-term speculative funds prefer Merlin; native Bitcoin developers opt for Stacks. Core targets incremental capital that values BTC asset security while needing a complete EVM smart contract ecosystem.
If subsequent major products launch as scheduled and cash flow flywheels connect, Core is poised to secure the independent L1 BTCFi leader position and relatively stand out; if ecosystem rollouts continue to delay, track competition will persist long-term, making it difficult to break out with a major independent rally.
Competition in this track has never been about short-term hype; the ultimate outcome depends on who first converts grand narratives into sustained on-chain demand.
Who do you think among the many BTCFi projects is most likely to become the ultimate winner? Share your thoughts in the comments.The U.S. Can't Save Japan: The "Bluff" Alliance Under Mutual Guarantee of National Debt
On the Projection of Japan as the Global Asset Storm Center
1. Historical Role: Intermediary and Bridge
· Century-long Positioning: Japan has long played the role of an intermediary channel for assets and manufactured goods between China and Europe-America, with its profits deeply tied to cross-regional flows.
· Background of Rise: From the 1950s to 1970s, Japan's manufacturing benefited from U.S.-initiated wars related to Asia (such as the Korean War and Vietnam War), with U.S. capital and industrial orders fueling its industrialization.
· Earlier Origins: Britain's armed support to Japan in the late 19th century also laid the groundwork for its modern expansion.
2. Currency and Central Bank Game
· "Safe-haven Currency" Label: Previously, the yen maintained its safe-haven status closely linked to policy coordination between the People's Bank of China and other major central banks; some central banks' dependence on the Bank of Japan amplified the yen's role in global liquidity.
· Current Dilemma: The Bank of Japan's "face-saving" policy between inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates (reluctance to withdraw easing statements) may accelerate problem accumulation and weaken its own adjustment space.
3. The Paradox of External Rescue
· The Illusion of U.S.-Japan Mutual Guarantee: U.S. Treasury bonds partly rely on mutual guarantees with Japan, forming a debt chain; however, the U.S. has no motivation to sacrifice its own interests to rescue Japan, with verbal support or "bluffing" being the limit.
· Structural No-solution: Aging population, declining industrial competitiveness, high debt, combined with rigid policies, leave Japan lacking endogenous resilience amid the storm.
4. Why Japan is the Storm Center
· When global asset volatility intensifies, Japan's vulnerability as an "intermediary link" will be magnified:
· Direct confrontation between China and Europe-America weakens Japan's intermediary value;
· The yen's safe-haven attribute fades, increasing capital flight pressure;
· The U.S.-Japan alliance's "guarantee" at the financial level becomes essentially hollow.
Conclusion: Historical inertia, policy path dependence, and drastic changes in the external environment may make Japan the epicenter of this financial storm, while external salvation is nearly a mere talk.$CORE Did institutions enter in September? Online narratives vs on-chain reality
The widely circulated script in the community in September: institutional funds will enter CORE in bulk, driving a major price recovery.
Combining current on-chain data, exchange flows, and official announcements, let's objectively clarify the situation:
There is currently no solid evidence proving large-scale institutional inflows in September.
1. No leading asset managers or crypto funds have publicly disclosed new CORE holdings; no on-chain definitive signs of institutions buying large amounts on DEX/CEX. The "institutions entering in September" circulating online is mostly community speculation and expectations from external bloggers, not a fact that has already happened.
2. Staking side: total node staking is 44.14 million tokens, a large portion of which are old large holders and early locked positions, not new institutional incremental funds in September. Also, a bug recently occurred in node reward distribution; the protocol is still being fixed and refined. Mature institutions generally avoid entering during protocol fault windows.
3. Market and funds: the price is still grinding repeatedly in a low range, and trading volume has not expanded continuously. If large institutions were really buying up, there would be obvious traces in market depth and large on-chain transfers, which are not currently seen.
We need to distinguish two situations:
✅ Potential expectations: BTC-Fi narrative, quantum-resistant technology, institutional-grade products are indeed stories that could attract institutions in the future; institutional entry is a medium- to long-term possibility.
❌ Current reality: as of September, no bulk institutional real money inflows are observed. Do not mistake "possible in the future" for "already happened now."
Also watch out for risk points:
A protocol reward minting bug was just exposed; the project is still issuing incident review reports. For formal institutions, such logical vulnerabilities in the protocol raise their entry threshold and may delay their entry pace; institutions will not easily build heavy positions during fault periods.
How to verify if institutions have really arrived? Look for three hard signals, not rumors:
1. Multiple brand-new large cold wallets appear on-chain, continuously withdrawing from exchanges and holding long-term staking;
2. Official announcements clearly confirming institutional cooperation and fund inflows;
3. Trading volume continuously expands, and price breaks key resistance with volume, not just hype pulses.
At this stage, just listen to the script; do not use "institutions entering in September" as the core reason for heavy positions. Narrative fulfillment takes time; patiently wait for solid on-chain evidence.
$CORE#PlanetDaily Hello September｜August turned a whole lake green, but the real schools of fish are still behind the fog
🌅📈🟢🎣🚀
Woke up early to check the K-line, most are already green.
Not the kind of fake green that flashes and then turns red again, but the kind of green where the fog on the water surface slowly clears throughout August and the lake itself brightens.
In August, the crypto market experienced a genuine broad rally. Bitcoin surged from just over 60,000 to above 80,000, touching 81,000 intraday, with a monthly increase of about 25%, making it one of the strongest Augusts in recent years. Ethereum, major altcoins, and some smaller altcoins also rose. Shorts were squeezed, ETF funds flowed back, and sentiment shifted abruptly from panic to greed.
Many started shouting: The bull is here.
The fisherman sitting by the lake is thinking about something else—
The fog clearing doesn’t mean the fish have jumped onto the boat yet.
The real good news is still on the way.
Starting September 9, the U.S. Treasury will at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases, changing liquidity expectations. Around mid-September, the market structure bill (CLARITY) will hit key milestones. Regulatory narratives, stablecoin scaling, tokenization, and the repeatedly mentioned “dollar depreciation buying” are not things that rise in a day; they have been slowly building underwater for a whole year.
Historically, September hasn’t been friendly to Bitcoin, with average returns tending negative. But the past three Septembers have closed green consecutively. Cycles aren’t iron laws; capital and narratives are.
So at this point, the two biggest fears are:
One, chasing at the peak and mistaking August’s fish for all of September’s harvest.
Two, panicking at a pullback and mistaking the newly brightened lake surface for a dry season again.
The fisherman’s habit remains the old saying: Guard your coins like guarding a widow, slow is fast.
August has already pushed the boat into deep waters. What to watch in September is not whether today’s K-line is green or not, but whether funds will continue to flow in, policies will be implemented, and the market will shift from “short covering” to “real money taking over.”
There are already ripples on the lake surface.
The fog hasn’t completely cleared yet.
Don’t rush to reel in the rod.
Hello September.
We keep sitting.
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #SeptemberOutlook #BTC #MarketAnalysis #OKXPlanet #GuardYourCoinsLikeAGuardian #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 After playing with coins for so long, I increasingly feel that data is more reliable than emotions.
This morning I scanned several sets of data and roughly have an idea:
BlackRock IBIT is still continuously accumulating coins, buying 13,000 BTC in 7 days, and the selling pressure on GBTC has basically been digested. Institutions are entering with real money, so there is support at this level.
But support doesn't mean an immediate takeoff.
There are still quite a few chips piled up in exchanges that haven't been withdrawn, which are potential sell orders that can be dumped at any time.
The greed and fear index is 61, which is lower than last week's 73 but still in the greed zone, indicating that many retail investors are still chasing highs.
Many people see continuous ETF inflows and shout for new highs.
But institutions are doing long-term allocations, not short-term price pumping. They buy their own, and whether the price moves in the short term is another matter.
So the current situation is: no conditions for a big drop, no momentum for a big rise.
Most likely, it will be a back-and-forth shakeout, with spikes to wash out the undecided chips.
Hold your favored mainstream spot coins like $BTC, $ETH, $OKB patiently and wait. Don't heavily bet on contracts for one-sided moves now; the tug-of-war between bulls and bears can easily cause stop losses to be triggered back and forth.
Missing out is not scary; what's scary is rushing in impulsively and then getting cut repeatedly.
⚠️PS: The above is all personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility. The current crypto market is in a high-level oscillation phase of "rapid rise in August followed by a digestion period in September," overall weak and not a continuation of a healthy bull market.
BTC is tugging between $77,000 and $79,000, having surged above $81,000 in August but failing to hold. The weekend rebound accompanied by a flattening spot CVD is a bear-covering rebound rather than an active spot market attack. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $202 million on 8/28, ending a 9-day net inflow streak, with weekly inflows halved compared to the previous week; Binance reserves rose to a yearly high of 687,000 BTC, indicating accumulating selling pressure supply. On the macro side, the Fed remains hawkish, with over 60% priced in for a September rate hike, Brent crude oil back above $90, and US stock tokenization diverting institutional funds, so liquidity is not increasing. ETH is slightly stronger (ETF still has small net inflows, defending $2400–$2500), but its high beta nature means it will eventually follow BTC down as BTC weakens. SNDK is a US stock storage company, unrelated to this market.
Conclusion: Low volume, no ETF lifeline, macro pressure; short-term bearish view unchanged. Breaks above $79k–$80k are traps, with pullbacks to $76k or even $72k as the baseline scenario. Currently in a deep de-risking phase since 2026, with overall significant pressure. In June, global crypto ETPs saw a net outflow of $4.31 billion, of which BTC products accounted for 94%, about $4.06 billion, marking the largest single-month outflow for US spot BTC ETFs since their launch in 2024, with net redemptions for seven consecutive weeks. Institutional buying has substantially withdrawn, ETH is simultaneously bleeding, and on the macro side, the new Fed chair Warsh has signaled a hawkish "possible rate hike within the year," combined with a $5.2 billion contraction in stablecoin supply. Under this triple pressure, BTC fell 20.5% monthly to $58,500, and ETH dropped 21.9% to $1,560.
On-exchange existing funds are still being diverted by tokenized US stocks and RWA perpetual contracts—June saw centralized exchange tokenized stock perpetual contract trading volume exceed $54 billion, further squeezing altcoin liquidity.
Overall assessment: The rebound is tactical repair rather than a trend reversal. Before ETF outflows stabilize and the Fed turns dovish, the market is unlikely to have systemic opportunities; structurally, individual alt ETFs like HYPE and XRP still see inflows but cannot hedge BTC/ETH beta weakness. Operationally, caution is advised; the $60,000 round number is the mid-term bull-bear dividing line for BTC. From "Digital Gold" to "Yield-Generating Asset": CORE Institutional Edition Launches, Comparing Bitcoin's Long-Term Value and Short-Term Limitations
⚠️This article is for industry information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice
Recently, CORE launched an institutional solution targeting professional capital, focusing on compliant BTC staking and lstBTC liquidity services, specifically connecting with custodial institutions, asset management companies, and family offices. This objectively breaks down the long-term value and short-term expectations of this news.
Long-Term Positive Logic
1. Directly addresses core institutional pain points: Many institutions hold BTC long-term in cold wallets, lacking compliant channels to generate yield. CORE collaborates with leading custodians like BitGo and Hex Trust, allowing assets to remain within the custody system without transfer, using time-locked staking to generate BTC yield without cross-chain wrapping into WBTC. This mature yield solution is expected to increase traditional capital's willingness to allocate to Bitcoin.
2. Completes the BTCFi narrative system. Bitcoin has long been seen primarily as a digital store of value with limited financial application scenarios. After institutional tools are implemented, BTC can participate in staking, lending, and liquidity certificate issuance, further broadening Bitcoin's acceptance in traditional finance.
3. Optimizes chip structure. Institutional holders no longer rely solely on buying low and selling high for profit; stable staking yields will encourage long-term funds to reduce short-term selling, potentially easing spot selling pressure in the mid to long term.
Short-Term Constraints to View Rationally
1. Institutional business implementation involves a lengthy cycle. Risk control reviews, system integration, and capital strategy adjustments often take months; large capital inflows will not occur immediately upon product launch, so the positive impact has a clear time lag.
2. The core drivers of Bitcoin's market remain USD liquidity, Federal Reserve policy, ETF funds, and overseas regulatory policies. BTCFi is a derivative narrative that can boost the market but is unlikely to independently drive price strength against macro trends.
3. Competition in the sector continues; many BTC layer-2 and staking solutions exist, and institutional funds will diversify, making it difficult to concentrate all capital in a single ecosystem.
Impact on the $CORE Ecosystem
Relying on the ecosystem's dual staking mechanism, BTC holders seeking higher yields need to stake CORE together, which is expected to continuously generate token demand in the long term.
Key signals to monitor going forward: official cooperation announcements from leading asset management and custody institutions; steady growth in on-chain native staked BTC. Without real on-chain growth, market moves are likely just short-term sentiment pulses.
Trading Thoughts
Without a clear easing turning point in macro liquidity, it is unwise to rely on a single ecosystem's positive news to bet on a unilateral surge.
Over a longer cycle, the continuously improving institutional BTCFi infrastructure is an important foundational buildup for the next bull market, representing a gradual and progressive long-term logic. CORE's market performance is closely tied to BTCFi sector heat; continue to watch official cooperation announcements and on-chain data changes.
$BTC $CORE #CORE #Bitcoin #BTCFiThe halving is coming soon. I've been revisiting the topic of burning these past few days, and the more I look into it, the more I feel this aspect is underestimated. During the first halving, over four million FB were permanently burned—combining the unfinished FIP-101 test and a community allocation from the second year. The addresses are public, and these tokens are removed from circulation, not just verbally reducing supply. At the same time, FIP-102 redirected part of the new issuance to the Bitcoin mainnet. The official explanation was clear: it's not printing an extra layer, just issuing through a different route, with the total supply remaining the same. On one hand, they cleared out unused historical quotas; on the other, they brought future FB closer to the Bitcoin mainnet. I find this sequence more reassuring. Once the mainnet side can truly handle native FB, the supply issue will be settled upfront, making future expectations more concrete. At least it's not expanding use cases while releasing all the old quotas at once. #FB #UniSat $FB Complete Logic of Bitcoin's Price Increase
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice; the crypto market is highly volatile
It can be divided into six major layers: supply side, demand side, macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, chip and leverage, narrative and belief.
1. Supply Side: Scarcity, Four-Year Halving (Fundamental Basis)
Total permanent cap of 21 million coins, no additional issuance.
Halving occurs every 4 years, cutting miners' daily new Bitcoin output in half, reducing new market selling pressure.
- Historical pattern: The market often trades ahead of halving expectations; major tops mostly appear 12-18 months after halving.
- Current status: 94% of Bitcoin has been mined, with fewer new coins entering circulation; a large amount of coins remain unmoved long-term (whales hoarding, cold wallets), reducing liquid chips on exchanges, so small amounts of capital can push prices up.
2. Demand Side: Real Buying Pressure, Institutions Are the Biggest Variable This Cycle
1. US Spot ETFs
BlackRock and other ETFs provide pensions, family offices, and ordinary Americans a compliant channel to buy BTC; continuous net inflows into ETFs represent ongoing passive buying and are the most important indicator of the mid-term trend.
2. Listed Companies Hoarding Coins (e.g., MicroStrategy)
Companies convert part of their cash into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, continuously buying and directly absorbing circulating market chips.
3. Global Retail and High Net Worth Allocation
Treat Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge fiat overissuance and geopolitical risks.
3. Macro Liquidity (Most Impactful, Primary Short-Term Driver)
Bitcoin is a highly elastic risk asset, highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity.
1. Fed rate cut expectations and declining US Treasury yields
Lower risk-free interest rates cause funds to flow out of bonds into stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin; when Treasury yields surge, Bitcoin usually comes under pressure.
2. Weakening US dollar makes Bitcoin priced in dollars easier to rise.
Simply put: In a loose liquidity environment, Bitcoin is more likely to bull; in tight liquidity, even strong narratives are easily suppressed.
4. Regulatory Policy Expectations
- Positive: Clear US crypto legislation, softened SEC stance, ETF approvals, more countries allowing compliant holdings will open space for incremental capital inflows.
- Negative: Total bans and strict regulations directly suppress the market.
A large part of the bull market is trading on "expectations of improved regulation."
5. Chip Structure + Leverage Short Squeeze (Short-Term Surge Catalyst)
1. Long-term holders on-chain do not move: large amounts of BTC locked in cold wallets, not sold, shrinking circulating supply.
2. Derivatives leverage: when price breaks key resistance, accumulated short positions are forcibly liquidated; shorts buying coins to close positions become passive buying, further driving up prices—this is a short squeeze. Many rapid large bullish candles come from leverage liquidations, not all from spot buying.
6. Narrative and Belief: Value Consensus
Two core narratives:
1. Inflation resistance, hedge against fiat depreciation: governments can print money, but Bitcoin’s total supply cannot be changed.
2. Decentralized digital value storage, not controlled by any single country.
The narrative itself does not directly drive price up but attracts capital willing to allocate, turning the story into real money.
Conversely, what can interrupt the rise?
1. Fed rate hikes again, liquidity tightening; US Treasury yields continue rising.
2. ETFs shift from net inflows to sustained large redemptions, institutional funds withdraw.
3. Global economic crisis, all risk assets crash together.
4. Major negative regulatory news.
5. Excessive leverage accumulation followed by concentrated long liquidations and panic selling.
Summary in one sentence
Halving tightens supply as the foundation; macro liquidity determines the overall environment; ETFs and institutional funds provide incremental buying; regulation opens institutional space; leverage and sentiment amplify price swings.
Relying on a single factor leads to misjudgment; only multiple factors resonating together can produce a major bull market.🔥Latest CME Fed Watch | September rate hike probability soars to 65.4%, rate cut expectations completely overturned
According to the latest data from the CME Fed Watch tool:
✅ September FOMC meeting
Probability of holding rates steady: 34.6%
Probability of a 25 basis point hike: 65.4%
✅ October FOMC meeting
Probability of holding rates steady: 25.4%
Cumulative 25bp hike: 57.2%
Cumulative 50bp hike: 17.4%
Jackson Hole Fed hawkish speech + PCE inflation exceeding expectations, the market has completely abandoned the old script of "imminent rate cuts".
Futures pricing now shows: a September rate hike has become the market baseline scenario, with even the possibility of two hikes being priced in.
What this means for the market
1. USD and US Treasury yields are more likely to rise than fall, putting pressure on long-duration risk assets. High Beta assets like $BTC, $ETH, $SOL will continue to be suppressed by liquidity expectations; rebounds are prone to volatility, and the risk of pullbacks should not be ignored.
2. Don’t mistake rebounds in crypto as trend reversals; the biggest macro constraint remains the Fed. The market will largely depend on the September 4th nonfarm payrolls and subsequent CPI data. If data remains hot, rate hike expectations will rise further.
3. Two scenario analyses
▪️ Scenario A: A 25bp hike is delivered, with continued hawkish remarks → risk assets likely to experience sell-offs.
▪️ Scenario B: Rates held steady, but language retains room for hikes → short-term rebound, but the narrative of "higher for longer" interest rates won’t disappear, limiting rebound sustainability.
💡Simple summary:
The previously fantasized easing expectations have receded. Now it’s not about betting on when rate cuts will happen, but whether hikes will continue.
Even if crypto rebounds, it’s a volatile correction; avoid blindly loading up at highs, as the macro sword still hangs overhead. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 CORE: Saying Goodbye to Inflation Narratives, Entering the Era of Real Revenue in 2026
⚠️ Content is for track communication and review only, not investment advice, DYOR
Many people's impression of CORE still lingers in the early airdrop and inflation incentive era.
But in 2026, it has adopted a new approach.
In the past, public chains relied on token subsidies to fuel the ecosystem and used inflation to generate hype; when the hype faded, the token price reverted to its original state. This is a cycle that most public chains cannot escape.
The answer Core DAO provides this year: no longer telling stories through token issuance, but relying on real ecological transaction fee revenue to create a buyback flywheel.
Its positioning is very clear: Bitcoin power grid.
Bitcoin has trillions in assets long-term stored in cold wallets, which can only be hoarded, not yield interest or participate in DeFi. lstBTC is non-custodial liquid staking; BTC holders do not have to give up ownership but can obtain liquid staking certificates to lend, trade, and earn yields, unlocking liquidity from dormant Bitcoin stock.
Custodial institutions like BitGo, Cobo, Fireblocks, etc., are all integrated, offering BTC staking services to institutions; SatPay Bitcoin payment bank continues to advance, connecting staking yields, lending, and debit card spending to generate real transaction fee income, which flows back to token buybacks.
The previous dispute and settlement with Maple Finance was interpreted by many as a defeat.
In essence, it was a business stop-loss: both parties did not admit fault, ended the long litigation, recovered user assets, cleared ecological negatives, and focused all energy on 2026 revenue realization, no longer wasting resources on internal conflicts.
The bullish logic is straightforward:
✅ BTCFi is a major trend; the financialization of Bitcoin assets is an important narrative for the next bull market;
✅ Shifting from inflation-driven to business revenue-driven; if ecological fees and buybacks can be realized, the token value logic will be completely rewritten;
✅ Institutional custody, lstBTC, and SatPay are advancing simultaneously with product launch expectations.
But risks cannot be ignored:
🔴 Strong narrative, but final results depend on implementation progress; blueprints do not equal real output;
🔴 Intense competition in the BTCFi track, with competitors continuously diverting traffic;
🔴 Token unlocking pressure remains; the overall Bitcoin market will greatly affect CORE's performance; small-cap volatility will far exceed BTC.
In a bull market, track stories only provide imagination space; what truly determines how far it goes is whether the narrative can be turned into tangible revenue.
CORE is now standing at this crossroads of validation.
$CORE #CoreDAO #BTCFi Amid the sharp rise, I choose to be a “bystander” 🧐
Just reviewed the $BTC liquidation map again, the data is intriguing
This position is indeed sensitive right now
If it pushes up by two thousand dollars, nearly 1.05 billion short positions are waiting to be liquidated
If it drops by two thousand dollars, the longs will have to give up 620 million
Judging solely by the "fuel" reserves, shorts are indeed more crowded, the conditions for a short squeeze are on the table
But what makes me frown is the $BTC market rhythm
This morning, a spike plunged from 79,500 straight down to 76,950,000, then quickly V-shaped back above 78,500, the whole process was clean and swift, with almost no sideways consolidation
This move looks fierce but actually reveals a kind of "impatience"—the drop wasn’t deep enough, but the rebound was fast, and the result?
The liquidation map shows the dip didn’t wash out many longs, instead it gave bottom-fishing funds a comfortable entry point
The floating positions weren’t cleaned out, yet it pushed straight up; this kind of rise has a loose foundation.
Actually, to really go far, it would need to dip another 1,000 points near 76,900 to fully force out panic sellers, then pull back up; that would be much more solid
But the market didn’t do that, which makes me lean toward thinking the current rally is more like institutions using crowded shorts to distribute rather than a trend reversal
So my conclusion is clear: near $BTC 79,000, I won’t chase longs
If it can’t break through 79,500 with volume and hold, this is a left-side short test observation zone
Sideways consolidation is where big moves happen; sharp rises don’t build true conviction
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 In the past, when competing in AI, everyone focused on the GPUs in data centers; now Nvidia is starting to shift its attention "outside the cloud."
On August 31, according to Reuters, Nvidia and MediaTek further deepened their long-term cooperation. Nvidia plans to invest $3.5 billion to purchase convertible bonds issued by MediaTek, and the two companies will jointly build a platform spanning from AI edge computing to cloud computing.
This development is actually quite interesting when viewed in the context of the entire AI industry.
Nvidia controls AI computing power and software ecosystems, while MediaTek has long been deeply involved in terminal chips for mobile phones, smart devices, and more. The combination of these two companies means AI computing could further extend from large data centers to mobile phones, cars, robots, and other smart devices.
Why pursue edge computing?
Because when AI truly enters daily life in the future, not all tasks are suitable for processing in the cloud. The closer the data is to the device, the faster the response usually is, and it can also reduce some dependence on cloud computing power and network connectivity.
So I prefer to see this cooperation as an early strategic layout in the AI industry chain.
In the past, when discussing AI, the core question was "who has more GPUs."
Going forward, it might become another question:
Who can truly bring AI into hundreds of millions of terminal devices?
Nvidia has the computing power, MediaTek has the terminals, and this time the two companies have put these two pieces of the puzzle together.
The next phase of AI may not only happen in data centers but gradually appear in the mobile phones, cars, and various smart devices we use every day.$ETH Ethereum Real-Time Market
Current Price: $2,472 (Kraken 02:02 $2,472.45 / MEXC 04:41 $2,471.10 / OKX 04:47 $2,473.96; Tuesday Asia session has already pulled back above 2470)
Intraday Range: $2,388.00–$2,499.99 (OKX 24h; Kraken 24h low $2,400.78 high $2,514.83; Asia session did not touch last night’s 2,534, high 2,499.85, tested 2500 watershed but did not close above)
Market Cap: ~ $298.4B (120.68M × 2,472), dominance ~10.8%
Volume: 24h spot $14.59B (Kraken full scope) / MEXC single exchange $432.56M, Asia session volume contraction pulled back to 2470, no expansion
Sentiment: Fear & Greed 68 Greed; Daily RSI ~69–70 (PricePrediction 69.4 / 8/29 peak 72.8 then retreated) still relatively high, not out of overbought; 4H RSI neutral, 1H MACD weak bullish crossover below zero line, Bollinger middle band ~2,490 not reclaimed, 1H did not stand back above 2490–2500 watershed, bullish reset not established
Technical Structure: Below 2490–2500 watershed → 2440–2472 friction zone vs 2530–2550 strong resistance
Capital and Ecosystem (relative to BTC differences)
Spot ETF: 8/29 US Eastern conflicting data (Biturai +102M 10 consecutive inflows vs Farside -164.6M), 8/31 US market closed no disclosure; ETHA 8/17–8/27 nine-day convergence 1.02B accounting for 72% still effective, waiting for 9/1 US market restart to verify 8/31 final value + 9/1 daily value recovery
On-chain: Major liquidation price 1,854.30 far away; Coinglass broke 2,356 mainstream CEX long liquidation intensity 1.274B; exchange reserves 6.28M ETH (down 18% since June), staking >42M ETH supply tight narrative ongoing
Macro: Warsh hawkish → September rate hike probability 57.5%; DXY 98.65 → now 99.6 slight rebound; CLARITY bill Senate vote 9/15; 10Y 4.76% pressure on valuation
Quality: ETH/BTC now ~0.0313 (BTC 78,850 ÷ ETH 2,472), holding above 0.031; short covering driven retreat, ETF sole support, daily RSI 69 still overbought
Today (Tuesday Asia-Europe session → US market restart) scenarios and ideas
Baseline: 2,440–2,490 friction, hold 2,440 grind 2,472–2,485; rebound 2,490 no break continue short pressure
Rebound follow-up: 1H candle close above 2,490 target 2,500→2,530; failure to reclaim 2,490 all rebounds reduce position (daily RSI 69 overbought)
Pullback follow-up: 4H close below 2,440 target 2,410→2,344; daily close below 2,300 wait for 2,122
Spot/Mid-term: 2,300–2,400 no break small position low buy (≤5%), daily close below 2,300 pause adding wait for 2,122; 3,000 no position reduction
Contracts: 2,485–2,500 stagnation light short (stop loss 2,510, target 2,440) ≤2x; pullback 2,440–2,472 stabilize light long (stop loss 2,425, target 2,490)
Key Observation Windows
2,490–2,500 1H candle close reclaim? (No close → watershed turns resistance continuation, box 2,440–2,490)
2,440–2,472 4H hold? (Lose 2,440 → 2,410 deep wash, last night 2,418 warning)
2,410–2,450 liquidation cluster 4H candle hold? (Lose → 2,344)
2,300 psychological level daily close test? (Test then ETF 10 consecutive inflows bottom test)
8/31 ETH ETF final value (US Eastern 9/1 release) Biturai +102M vs Farside -164.6M source conflict liquidation
Tuesday US market restart + September rate hike 57.5% pricing to choose side, 2,534 four failures then back to 2,472 is shakeout or mid-term pivot down
⚠️ Objective market analysis not investment advice. 2472 is Kraken/MEXC/OKX 02:00–04:47 same frame anchor (your previous 2464 was Monday 06:51 old data), daily RSI 69 still overbought + 8/29 tested 2,534 four failures, 4H candle close below 2,440 true break of friction zone, stop loss loosened 50–60% than usual.
Quick summary: Tuesday Asia session pulled back 2472 tested 2500 no close below 2490–2500 watershed, 2440–2490 box, 2530–2547 four failures, 2550 200-week SMA ultimate resistance, daily RSI 69 overbought, ETF 8/29 source conflict waiting 9/1 final value. $ETH Saudi Arabia has even started borrowing money from banks, which is actually a signal worth pondering.
The latest news is that the Saudi National Debt Management Center is in talks with banks, considering raising at least $8 billion in loans. It is still in the early discussion stage and may not ultimately materialize. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit for the second quarter reached about $9.1 billion.
Many people's first reaction might be:
"Oil prices have risen so much, and Saudi Arabia still needs money?"
The problem lies exactly here.
Although this round of Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices, the disruption of Hormuz shipping and the impact on energy facilities are also putting additional pressure on Saudi Arabia's economy and finances. The oil sector in Saudi Arabia even showed a significant contraction in the second quarter.
This $8 billion is more like cash flow management and financing structure adjustment, and there is no need to interpret it as Saudi Arabia "running out of money" for now.
For the market, there is another point worth paying attention to:
The war is gradually transmitting funding demand from the energy market to sovereign financing, banks, and the global bond market.
In this environment, BTC will definitely be affected by risk appetite in the short term.
But I am still relatively optimistic about the mid-term.
Because the core issues the world faces are becoming increasingly clear—rising fiscal spending, increasing financing needs, and continued accumulation of monetary and debt pressures.
And the long-term logic of BTC is precisely that it becomes easier to be reconsidered in such an environment.
So I will not use this news to short BTC.
Short-term, watch macro volatility; mid-term, I still stand bullish.
$BTC BTCFi Four Kings Ultimate Review: Steady, Hardcore, Elastic, Ambush — Who Is the True Leader of the Bull Market?
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article only outlines the track logic and project architecture and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please conduct independent analysis and participate rationally.
The Bitcoin ecosystem bull market wave continues to advance, with many investors confusing STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY as all BTCFi track targets.
In fact, they are completely different levels, logics, and capital narratives.
These four projects respectively represent the four top BTCFi schools: Native Steady, Full-Chain Infrastructure, Inscription Elasticity, and Underlying Security. Their underlying architecture, asset risks, growth potential, and capital logic differ vastly.
1. Core Positioning of the Four Schools: Thoroughly Distinguish the Hierarchy
STX | Native Steady School: The Orthodox Bitcoin L2 Benchmark
Stacks is the earliest and most orthodox L2 infrastructure in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
It does not alter Bitcoin’s base layer; relying on PoX consensus + a dedicated programming language, it realizes on-chain smart contracts on Bitcoin and builds a complete BTC-denominated DeFi system using sBTC.
Advantages: Orthodox ecosystem, high institutional recognition, most stable price trend.
Drawbacks: Not EVM compatible, slower ecosystem expansion, limited explosive potential.
Positioning: BTCFi defensive leader, pursuing long-term steady compound growth.
CORE | All-Purpose Infrastructure School: Bitcoin’s Only Independent L1 Public Chain
Biggest market misconception: treating CORE as a Bitcoin Layer 2.
CORE is an independent Layer 1 public chain, not L2!
It relies on exclusive Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, leveraging Bitcoin’s entire network hash power as a security base, fully EVM compatible, truly a "Bitcoin Supergrid."
Coverage: BTC staking, institutional lstBTC liquid staking, SatPay payments, lending, RWA real-world assets; the only BTCFi leader with a complete commercial revenue system.
Entering cash flow profitability era in 2026, with real business, real institutional demand, and real buyback expectations.
Positioning: BTCFi aggressive infrastructure leader, largest growth potential, most hardcore narrative.
MERL | Inscription Elasticity School: Dedicated Channel for Bitcoin Native Assets
Merlin Chain focuses on ZK Layer 2 + inscription ecosystem, precisely solving BRC20, Ordinals asset congestion, and high gas fees.
All ecosystem activity, hype, and capital are tied to Bitcoin inscription cycles.
Advantages: Extremely strong bull market elasticity, highest gains during hype.
Drawbacks: Market highly dependent on sector sentiment, no independent narrative, very cyclical.
Positioning: BTCFi cyclical speculative target, riding waves and hype.
BABY | Underlying Security School: Bitcoin Security Leasing Dark Horse
Unique and completely differentiated track.
Does not do DeFi, trading, or applications; only one thing:
Zero-risk staking of Bitcoin native assets and security leasing for the entire PoS public chain network.
User BTC remains in native addresses throughout, no custody, no cross-chain, no wrapping; BTCFi’s highest security model.
Earns continuous income by "renting out Bitcoin’s top-level security," representing the most fundamental and essential public chain infrastructure narrative.
Positioning: Ultra-long-term ambush-type underlying dark horse, highest odds.
2. Asset Security Hierarchy (The Most Important BTCFi Watershed)
✅ BABY | Ceiling-Level Security
BTC remains in native UTXO addresses throughout, pure cryptographic staking, zero custody, zero wrapping, zero bridge risk, absolutely secure assets.
✅ CORE | Non-Custodial Hardcore Security
BTC locked with Bitcoin mainnet timelocks, principal never leaves BTC chain, no institutional custody risk, only data relay synchronization, extremely low risk.
⚠️ STX | Consortium Multi-Signature Mode
Asset security depends on node consortium; although there is a penalty mechanism, theoretical risk of consortium misconduct exists.
⚠️ MERL | MPC Custody Mode
Assets require custody mapping; native BTC leaves mainnet, exposing institutional counterparty risk.
3. Value Capture Logic: Determines Bull Market Multiples
STX
Pure ecological consumption + BTC-denominated staking yield, value slowly raised through ecosystem expansion, steady but slow.
CORE
Dual staking lockup + 2026 cash flow realization
lstBTC institutional service fees, cross-border payments, on-chain fees, future revenue buybacks
— The only BTCFi leader transitioning from "storytelling" to "real earnings"
MERL
Inscription ecosystem fees + 50% profit buybacks, market fully follows sector bull and bear cycles, high elasticity, weak sustainability.
BABY
Continuous income from network-wide public chain security leasing fees, unique track, long-term value severely underestimated.
4. Ultimate Summary: Four Targets Suit Different Investors
✅ Seeking stability, long-term holding, avoiding volatility: choose STX
Bitcoin native orthodox, heavy institutional holdings, most stable trend.
✅ Riding the bull market main rise, earning growth dividends, focusing on fundamentals: choose CORE
BTCFi’s only L1 infrastructure + only cash flow track, core mainline of this bull market.
✅ Speculating on hype, capturing waves, playing cyclical markets: choose MERL
When inscription hype arrives, elasticity crushes the field.
✅ Low-position ambush, betting on underlying narrative breakout, super high odds: choose BABY
Network’s safest BTC staking model, underlying infrastructure dark horse.
The true profit logic of the bull market:
Not randomly buying BTCFi, but selecting the mainline that fits your style.
#STX #CORE #MERL #BABY #BTCFi🚨 ETH market faces a critical showdown!
Ethereum is currently fluctuating between $2,430 and $2,520. If bulls can firmly hold above $2,550, market sentiment may further improve.
📊 Latest news shows spot ETH ETFs have seen inflows for 9 consecutive days, with institutional demand continuing to heat up; meanwhile, Bitmine has recently increased its holdings by about 53,501 ETH, bringing its total to approximately 5.9 million ETH.
🔒 Currently, over 42.4 million ETH are staked, accounting for about 34.8% of the circulating supply, further limiting the market's tradable supply.
🔥 Will $2,550 become the starting point for the next breakout?
#ETH #Ethereum #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #Ethereum From "Digital Gold" to "Yield-Generating Asset": CORE Institutional Edition Launches, Comparing Bitcoin's Long-Term Value and Short-Term Limitations
⚠️This article is for industry information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice
Recently, CORE launched an institutional solution targeting professional capital, focusing on compliant BTC staking and lstBTC liquidity services, specifically connecting with custodial institutions, asset management companies, and family offices. This objectively breaks down the long-term value and short-term expectations of this news.
Long-Term Positive Logic
1. Directly addresses core institutional pain points: Many institutions hold BTC long-term in cold wallets, lacking compliant channels to generate yield. CORE collaborates with leading custodians like BitGo and Hex Trust, allowing assets to remain within the custody system without transfer, using time-locked staking to generate BTC yield without cross-chain wrapping into WBTC. This mature yield solution is expected to increase traditional capital's willingness to allocate to Bitcoin.
2. Completes the BTCFi narrative system. Bitcoin has long been seen primarily as a digital store of value with limited financial application scenarios. After institutional tools are implemented, BTC can participate in staking, lending, and liquidity certificate issuance, further broadening Bitcoin's acceptance in traditional finance.
3. Optimizes chip structure. Institutional holders no longer rely solely on buying low and selling high for profit; stable staking yields will encourage long-term funds to reduce short-term selling, potentially easing spot selling pressure in the mid to long term.
Short-Term Constraints to View Rationally
1. Institutional business implementation involves a lengthy cycle. Risk control reviews, system integration, and capital strategy adjustments often take months; large capital inflows will not occur immediately upon product launch, so the positive impact has a clear time lag.
2. The core drivers of Bitcoin's market remain USD liquidity, Federal Reserve policy, ETF funds, and overseas regulatory policies. BTCFi is a derivative narrative that can boost the market but is unlikely to independently drive price strength against macro trends.
3. Competition in the sector continues; many BTC layer-2 and staking solutions exist, and institutional funds will diversify, making it difficult to concentrate all capital in a single ecosystem.
Impact on the $CORE Ecosystem
Relying on the ecosystem's dual staking mechanism, BTC holders seeking higher yields need to stake CORE together, which is expected to continuously generate token demand in the long term.
Key signals to monitor going forward: official cooperation announcements from leading asset management and custody institutions; steady growth in on-chain native staked BTC. Without real on-chain growth, market moves are likely just short-term sentiment pulses.
Trading Thoughts
Without a clear easing turning point in macro liquidity, it is unwise to rely on a single ecosystem's positive news to bet on a unilateral surge.
Over a longer cycle, the continuously improving institutional BTCFi infrastructure is an important foundational buildup for the next bull market, representing a gradual and progressive long-term logic. CORE's market performance is closely tied to BTCFi sector heat; continue to watch official cooperation announcements and on-chain data changes.
$BTC $CORE #CORE #Bitcoin #BTCFiCore DAO Project Major Event Decryption
⚠️Note: The content is only a compilation of publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice.
Many people have a major misconception: that Core's official cross-chain bridge supporting multiple EVM chains for asset transfers means a large number of projects are fully migrating to Core. The truth is quite the opposite; almost no projects have completely shut down their original chain operations, with the vast majority only choosing to expand multi-chain layouts.
Core's official bridge connects Ethereum, BNB Chain, Arbitrum, Polygon, Avalanche, Optimism, and Base—seven EVM chains—with significant differences in project entry enthusiasm across these chains.
BNB Chain is the public chain with the most projects laying out on Core. Since the second half of 2023, projects like LFGSwap, numerous Meme projects, yield aggregators, ASX Capital, and others have successively deployed on Core. The BSC track is highly competitive with new projects continuously diluting traffic, while Core focuses on the scarce BTCFi narrative, with extremely low EVM-compatible development costs, combined with official Ignition ecosystem incentives. Projects can simultaneously capture BSC's existing users and BTC holders, opening a new growth curve. Ethereum mainly expands through blue-chip protocols multi-chain, with representative project Solv Protocol launching SolvBTC.CORE in October 2024. The Ethereum LST track is fiercely competitive; Core has a native Bitcoin staking system that can form a complete staking and lending business loop, helping Solv reach BTC holders that the Ethereum ecosystem struggles to cover. Infrastructure like oracle Pyth and LayerZero have also been deployed to improve the underlying ecosystem.
Arbitrum has many re-staking and derivatives protocols planning new layouts from late 2024 to 2025. The Arbitrum track focuses on ETH re-staking, with weak BTCFi layout. Core's unique BTC+CORE dual staking mechanism can create differentiated yield products; meanwhile, on-chain fees are lower, making it more suitable for retail DeFi users. Polygon, Avalanche, Optimism, and Base have very few mature projects actively laying out, with only sporadic small new projects launching simultaneously. These public chains have their own ecosystem support policies, native assets mainly ETH-based, lacking BTC existing funds, and projects have little motivation to expand outward.
The core logic behind projects willing to lay out on Core is clear: most EVM public chains compete around the Ethereum ecosystem, while Core is a scarce BTCFi underlying track with a differentiated narrative; smart contract changes are minimal and development costs controllable; it can also absorb incremental funds brought by BTC hashrate narrative.
It is essential to clarify a key concept here: asset cross-chain channels only facilitate token transfers for users and do not equal ecosystem migration. Core's current leading applications Colend and Pell Network are native development projects, not migrated from external public chains.
Track dividends ultimately rely on continuous implementation and realization. Ongoing observation of project activity and real on-chain fee income will determine whether ecosystem expansion can convert into long-term value.
#CORE #BTCFi #PublicChainEcosystem From "Digital Gold" to "Yield-Generating Asset": CORE Institutional Edition Launches, Comparing Bitcoin's Long-Term Value and Short-Term Limitations
⚠️This article is for industry information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice
Recently, CORE launched an institutional solution targeting professional capital, focusing on compliant BTC staking and lstBTC liquidity services, specifically connecting custodial institutions, asset management companies, and family offices. This objectively breaks down the long-term value and short-term expectations of this news.
Long-Term Positive Logic
1. Directly addresses core institutional pain points: Many institutions hold BTC long-term in cold wallets, lacking compliant channels to generate yield. CORE collaborates with leading custodians like BitGo and Hex Trust, allowing assets to remain within the custody system without transfer, using time-locked staking to generate BTC yield without cross-chain wrapping into WBTC. This mature yield solution is expected to increase traditional capital's willingness to allocate to Bitcoin.
2. Completes the BTCFi narrative system. Bitcoin has long been viewed mainly as a digital store of value with limited financial application scenarios. After institutional tools are implemented, BTC can participate in staking, lending, and liquidity certificate issuance, further broadening Bitcoin's acceptance in traditional finance.
3. Optimizes chip structure. Institutional holders no longer rely solely on buying low and selling high for profit; stable staking yields will encourage long-term funds to reduce short-term selling, potentially easing spot selling pressure in the mid to long term.
Short-Term Constraints to View Rationally
1. Institutional business implementation involves a lengthy cycle. Risk control reviews, system integration, and capital strategy adjustments often take months; large capital inflows will not occur immediately upon product launch, so positive effects have a clear time lag.
2. The core drivers of Bitcoin's market remain USD liquidity, Federal Reserve policy, ETF funds, and overseas regulatory policies. BTCFi is a derivative narrative that can boost the market but is unlikely to independently drive price strength against macro trends.
3. Competition in the sector continues; many BTC layer-2 and staking solutions exist, and institutional funds will diversify, making it difficult to concentrate all capital in a single ecosystem.
Impact on the $CORE Ecosystem
Relying on the ecosystem's dual staking mechanism, BTC holders seeking higher yields need to stake CORE together, which is expected to continuously generate token demand in the long term.
Key signals to monitor going forward: official cooperation announcements from leading asset management and custody institutions; steady growth in on-chain native staked BTC. Without real on-chain growth, market gains are likely just short-term sentiment pulses.
Trading Thoughts
Without a clear easing turning point in macro liquidity, it is unwise to rely on a single ecosystem's positive news to bet on a unilateral surge.
Over a longer cycle, the continuously improving institutional BTCFi infrastructure is an important foundational buildup for the next bull market, representing a gradual and long-term logic. CORE's market performance is closely tied to BTCFi sector heat; continue to watch official cooperation announcements and on-chain data changes.
$BTC $CORE #CORE #Bitcoin #BTCFiReview of SNDK SanDisk's violent late-night surge at 3:45 AM: A textbook short squeeze at midnight, what lessons does this rollercoaster market bring us?
At 3:45 AM, many traders were already resting, and the overall market was still in a calm, oscillating state. The SNDK SanDisk contract suddenly launched a volume surge with no warning, rapidly pushing the price upward in a short time. A large number of short positions were consecutively liquidated during the session. This late-night volatility fully demonstrated the high volatility characteristics of RWA stock token contracts.
Looking back at the market condition before the surge, SanDisk had already experienced a period of consolidation and grinding. After an earlier pullback, bearish sentiment grew in the market. Many traders, seeing the high-level retracement, chose to continuously build short positions within the consolidation range, causing short holdings on the contract side to accumulate steadily. Many believed that the storage sector's positive news had been largely priced in and that the price was unlikely to launch another attack, expecting the market to continue downward for a correction.
It was precisely this large accumulation of short positions that laid the groundwork for the 3:45 AM surge. During the midnight period, overall market liquidity is naturally thin, and order book depth is limited. It doesn't take massive capital to quickly push the price up. After volume-buy orders entered, the price quickly broke upward, first triggering stop losses on some front-positioned shorts; when shorts were liquidated, the system automatically executed buy-to-close orders, which further pushed the price higher, triggering more leveraged short liquidations, creating a chain reaction of short squeeze stampede, completing a rapid surge in a very short time.
This round of price increase was not driven by sudden major news. The US stock market had already closed, with no new earnings reports or institutional announcements. Essentially, it was a liquidity-scarce period combined with a large accumulation of short contracts that triggered the short squeeze. On-chain and contract data clearly show that the liquidation peak was concentrated between 3 and 4 AM, with a large number of short positions liquidated in a short time. Passive buy orders became the most direct driver of this surge.
It is important to distinguish one thing here: a short squeeze rally does not equal a fundamental reversal. SanDisk's underlying narrative comes from AI storage demand, enterprise long-term orders, and storage chip cycle logic. These medium- to long-term fundamentals do not change directly because of a one-hour late-night surge. The midnight surge is more a behavior of contract funds and a game of leveraged positions, not a sign of a large influx of new long-term funds entering overnight.
Many traders have been caught off guard by such sudden midnight moves. Some short sellers correctly predicted the general direction during consolidation but ignored the liquidity risk at dawn and failed to set proper stop losses, getting swept out by this deep-night spike short squeeze; others, waking up to see the gains, were stimulated by the surge and impulsively chased the high. However, liquidity-thin rallies often lack stability and tend to quickly retrace after the surge, so chasing at the top can lead to significant short-term drawdowns.
At the same time, we must recognize the special attributes of the SNDK product. It is a stock token contract, linked on one side to the real stock price of US-listed SanDisk, influenced by the AI storage sector and the US stock market; on the other side, it trades 24/7 on crypto exchanges, with crypto leveraged funds participating around the clock. After US stock market close, crypto contract funds can still continuously tug the price, so it is common to see large contract moves overnight when US stocks are closed. This is a risk point many traders tend to overlook. Without the constraints of the US stock market's spot trading, the contract side is more prone to extreme spikes, rapid surges, or dumps.
After experiencing the 3:45 AM surge, the market will enter a new phase of divergence. After a round of short liquidations, the position structure inside the market has changed. Old shorts have been washed out, and a new batch of long and short positions will be established at higher levels. Two key points to watch next: first, whether the price pushed up by the midnight short squeeze can hold once daytime liquidity returns; second, after the US stock market opens, whether the performance of the US stock will restrain the contract side. If the US stock does not follow suit, the contract's overnight gains will likely gradually give back.
For those participating in such highly volatile contract products, here are some practical takeaways.
First, do not underestimate the damage potential during low-liquidity periods at dawn. Many think overnight market moves are small, but actually, when the order book is thin, a small amount of capital can cause huge swings. Whether going long or short, leverage must be controlled. High leverage on such products can lead to unexpected liquidations even while sleeping.
Second, do not mistake a contract short squeeze for the start of a trend. A short squeeze is a forced liquidation-driven rally, fundamentally different from a rally driven by genuine new capital inflows. Do not assume a rapid surge means a new uptrend has begun.
Third, overnight positions must have risk plans. If holding positions overnight, stop-loss levels need to fully consider overnight spike volatility. Do not set stops too close to round numbers, as they are easily hit by midnight moves. If you cannot stay up to monitor the market, avoid holding heavy positions during the dawn period.
Trading in crypto is not just about watching news and stories; contract position structures and liquidity at different times are equally important signals. Many unexpected big moves are not caused by news but are the result of leverage and order book liquidity dynamics.
$SNDK $BTC $SNDK and $MU aggressive buying into the close!
Based on gamma we might have flipped to an amplifying regime, which means more aggressive moves are possible.
$SNDK open interest shows dealers long a wall of calls at 1,700-1,720 ( around$23M combined).
But today's directionalized volume also shows aggressive call buying at 1,700, which can imply dealers are getting shorter gamma there in real time, not longer.
Spot price is also below the broader flip level (1,760), so dealer hedging is net Risk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to pay attention to risks. Currently, the market is dominated by stock speculation, and the pace of external incremental capital entering is far behind market participants' expectations. The most typical feature of a stock environment is not the absence of market rallies, but the cyclical rotation of funds between sectors, internal consumption, making it difficult to drive sustained broad market gains. With limited total funds, BTC and ETH will form a competitive dynamic. Understanding the stock market and seeing the real ceiling of the market is the key to avoiding unrealistic expectations of market heights. Bitcoin naturally holds a capital tilt advantage in the stock environment. As the core allocation targets in the crypto market, newly entered compliant funds are mostly prioritized for BTC. ETF funds and major asset allocation funds tend to prioritize more certain targets during the conservative risk appetite phase. The continuous inflow of existing funds supports BTC's rising bottom, giving it stronger resistance than other coins. But the existing market also limits BTC's upward potential. When there is no large-scale new capital inflow off-exchange, the upward momentum mostly comes from funds moving and transferring from other sectors. With limited on-market funds and no continuous external flow, even if the chip structure is healthy, it is difficult to achieve consecutive sharp ralls. Historical trapped positions and institutional profit-taking orders form strong suppression after each round of gains. Many traders see BTC bottoming continuously rising and immediately predict that the price will keep hitting new highs,Why does Bitcoin rise once every 4 years
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice, cryptocurrency market is highly volatile
It can be divided into six major layers: supply side, demand side, macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, chip and leverage, narrative and belief.
1. Supply side: Scarcity, four-year halving (fundamental basis)
Total permanent cap of 21 million coins, no additional issuance.
Halving occurs every 4 years, the daily new Bitcoin output by miners is cut in half, reducing new selling pressure in the market.
- Historical pattern: The market often trades ahead of halving expectations, major peaks mostly appear 12-18 months after halving.
- Current status: 94% of Bitcoin has been mined, new circulation is decreasing; a large amount of coins remain unmoved long-term (whales hoarding, cold wallets), exchange liquid chips decrease, so a small amount of funds can push prices up.
2. Demand side: Real buying pressure, institutions are the biggest variable this cycle
1. US spot ETFs
BlackRock and other ETFs provide pensions, family offices, and ordinary Americans a compliant channel to buy BTC; continuous net inflows into ETFs represent ongoing passive buying, the most important indicator of mid-term trends.
2. Listed companies hoarding coins (MicroStrategy, etc.)
Companies convert part of their cash into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, continuously buying and directly absorbing market circulating chips.
3. Global retail and high-net-worth allocations
Treat Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge fiat overissuance and geopolitical risks.
3. Macro liquidity (largest impact, primary short-term driver)
Bitcoin is a highly elastic risk asset, highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity.
1. Fed rate cut expectations, US Treasury yields decline
Risk-free interest rates fall, funds flow out of bonds into stocks, Bitcoin, and other risk assets; when Treasury yields surge, Bitcoin usually comes under pressure.
2. Dollar weakness makes Bitcoin priced in dollars easier to rise.
Simply put: In a loose liquidity environment, Bitcoin is more likely to bull; when liquidity tightens, even strong narratives are easily suppressed.
4. Regulatory policy expectations
- Positive: Clear US crypto legislation, softer SEC stance, ETF approvals, more countries allowing compliant holdings will open space for incremental capital inflows.
- Negative: Total bans, strict regulations directly suppress the market.
A large part of the bull market is trading on "expectations of improved regulation."
5. Chip structure + leverage short squeeze (short-term surge catalyst)
1. Long-term holders on-chain do not move: large amounts of BTC locked in cold wallets, not sold, shrinking circulating supply.
2. Derivatives leverage: Price breaks key resistance levels, large accumulated short positions are forcibly liquidated, shorts buying coins to close positions become passive buying pressure, further driving prices up, i.e., a short squeeze. Many rapid large bullish candles come from leverage liquidations, not all from spot buying.
6. Narrative belief: Value consensus
Two core narratives:
1. Inflation resistance, hedge against fiat depreciation: Governments can print money, but Bitcoin’s total supply cannot be changed.
2. Decentralized digital value storage, not controlled by any single country.
The narrative itself does not directly drive price up but attracts capital willing to allocate, turning the story into real money.
Conversely, what can interrupt the rise?
1. Fed raises rates again, liquidity tightens; Treasury yields continue rising.
2. ETFs shift from net inflows to sustained large redemptions, institutional funds withdraw.
3. Global economic crisis, all risk assets crash together.
4. Major negative regulatory news.
5. Excessive leverage accumulation followed by concentrated long liquidations and panic selling.
Summary in one sentence
Halving tightens supply as the foundation; macro liquidity determines the overall environment; ETFs and institutional funds provide incremental buying; regulation opens institutional space; leverage and sentiment amplify price swings.
Looking at a single factor alone leads to misjudgment; multiple factors must resonate together to produce a major bull market.$BTC $ETH THIS IS BIGGER THAN ONE WEEK OF BUYING
The crypto market is often dominated by daily candles, liquidation numbers and short-term sentiment.
But corporate treasury activity is creating a different signal.
More than $640M reportedly went into Bitcoin and Ethereum through corporate purchases in just one week.
Strategy reportedly added 4,603 BTC for $369.7M, taking its holdings to around 845,050 BTC.
Bitmine added roughly 53,501 ETH worth $131M, bringing its reported holdings close to 5.9M ETH.
Strive also purchased approximately 1,800 BTC for $143M, strengthening its position among public Bitcoin treasury companies.
The interesting part isn't simply that these companies bought.
It's what they're choosing to hold on their balance sheets.
Bitcoin is increasingly being positioned as a scarce digital asset that companies can hold as part of their long-term treasury strategy.
Ethereum represents a different thesis, tied more closely to the infrastructure and economic activity of the on-chain ecosystem.
Two different assets.
Two different investment narratives.
But both are receiving corporate attention.
This matters because corporate treasury purchases don't necessarily depend on short-term market momentum.
A trader might buy because BTC breaks resistance.
A company may buy because it believes the asset will be more valuable or strategically important years from now.
That creates a very different type of demand.
However, there's an important reality to remember:
Corporate buying doesn't make crypto risk-free.
Bitcoin can still experience deep corrections.
Ethereum can still underperform.
Treasury strategies can still fail.
And companies buying at high prices are not guaranteed to profit.
So I wouldn't look at these purchases and immediately conclude that the market must go higher.
I'd look at them as evidence of something more structural.
Crypto is becoming part of the balance-sheet conversation.
That could eventually change how future cycles develop. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
Is a rate hike really coming? 🤔️
This week, the U.S. will successively release JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payrolls. The labor market momentum will be the main pricing basis for September policy expectations.
Wall Street currently estimates August nonfarm payrolls to be between 50,000 and 80,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. If the numbers soften again, the "there's more work to do" stance from Walsh will be immediately contradicted, rate hike expectations will retract, and risk assets will have room to breathe.
If the numbers are strong, the hawks will directly block both inflation and employment fronts. $BTC testing 76,000 again wouldn't be a fantasy.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC is fluctuating at a high level, with its correlation to gold becoming increasingly obvious.
The US and Iran are at it again; this familiar script means our wallets always take the first hit during every conflict. When gold falls, Bitcoin falls too. Recently, these two have been moving like close brothers. When geopolitical risks heat up, funds are the first to flee, and the correlation is so strong it’s frustrating.
Crude oil prices are rising, and inflation expectations are back.
The problem is that oil-producing regions have become battlefields again, causing international oil prices to rise accordingly. When energy gets expensive, it’s hard to keep inflation down, and the Federal Reserve finds it even harder to ease and cut rates. Risk assets face short-term pressure, and BTC’s pullback alongside gold helps cool off the previous gains.
After a big rise, a correction is due—don’t be too sensitive.
Gold surged from 3900 to 4700, BTC jumped from 60000 to 81000, hardly taking a break along the way. Honestly, with such a sharp short-term rise, there are plenty of profit-taking positions, and technical indicators are overbought. Even without war, a correction was necessary. Using news to trigger a drop now is actually healthier than stubbornly holding on.
My view:
As long as BTC doesn’t break the 73000–74000 range, this upward structure remains intact. War news comes and goes quickly; once emotions settle, the funds that need to return will come back. Don’t panic when it falls, and don’t chase when it rises. During short-term volatility, watch more and act less. It’s more comfortable to wait for stabilization before making moves.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#星球日报
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 Bitcoin Is Up Nearly 25% In August. But Something Is Missing.
$BTC is closing one of its strongest months in years.
Bitcoin gained roughly 24–25% in August and recently pushed above $81K.
But there is one problem.
Price has not been able to turn that rally into a clean breakout.
My radar:
🟠 $BTC — holding near $78K, $80K–$82K remains the key wall
🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength
🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite
🟢 $XRP — watching institutional demand
The interesting part is what happened after Bitcoin touched $81K.
$BTC quickly returned toward $77K before recovering back toward $79K.
That tells us sellers are still active around the $80K–$82K region.
At the same time, institutional demand has not completely disappeared.
Bitcoin ETFs had a strong run of inflows before recording a $201.9M outflow on August 28, ending a nine-session inflow streak. 0
So we have an interesting divergence.
Strong monthly performance.
Large institutional demand.
But price still struggling to break resistance.
That usually means the market needs another catalyst.
And September is bringing plenty of them.
Oil has moved back above $90 as U.S.–Iran tensions escalate.
Treasury yields are rising.
Markets are pricing a higher probability of a September Fed rate hike.
And the U.S. jobs report is coming this week.
This creates a difficult environment for $BTC.
If macro pressure continues, Bitcoin could remain trapped below $80K.
But if $BTC holds $77K and buyers return with stronger spot demand, the $80K wall could eventually break.
That is the level I care about most.
For $ETH, $SOL and $XRP, I am watching whether they can maintain relative strength while Bitcoin consolidates.
If they do, capital may simply be rotating within crypto.
If everything breaks together, macro pressure is probably taking control.
The bigger picture is simple.
August proved that buyers are willing to accumulate $BTC.
September needs to prove they are willing to push it higher.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults 【First week of September, focus on “supply” rather than price】
Entering September, there is an easily overlooked change in the Crypto market:
A large number of Tokens are entering a new unlocking cycle.
Current data shows that about $1.5 billion worth of Tokens are expected to enter the market in the first week of September.
Among them, HYPE is expected to be about $797 million, and EIGEN has about 39.49 million tokens unlocking today, accounting for about 4.49% of its current circulating supply.
Many people see this data and their first reaction is:
"Unlocking = guaranteed price drop."
I think it’s not that simple.
What really needs to be studied is:
New supply VS new demand.
If a Token’s circulating supply increases by 10% in the future, but:
User growth is 20%
Trading volume grows 30%
Revenue grows 40%
Then the new supply may not necessarily create real long-term pressure.
Conversely, if:
Supply increases rapidly
Users do not grow
Trading volume declines
Revenue declines
Capital outflows
Then even if the project story is good, the Token may face long-term selling pressure.
So when studying Token Unlock, I focus on calculating one metric:
Unlock / Current Circulating Supply
The higher this ratio, the more we need to study whether the market can absorb the new supply.
But we also need to look further:
Who receives these Tokens?
The team?
VCs?
Early investors?
The community?
Stakers?
Different holders imply completely different potential selling pressure.
So when I research a project now, I don’t just ask:
"Is this coin a good project?"
Instead, I ask:
> How many Tokens will enter circulation in the next 30 days?
>
> Who holds these Tokens?
>
> How much real demand corresponds to the new supply?
>
> Can users, trading volume, and revenue grow simultaneously?
This is actually a very important concept in investing:
Price is not only determined by demand but by "changes in demand relative to supply."
So entering September, continue to focus on:
Token Unlock
Circulating Supply
FDV
Holder Structure
User Growth
Volume
Revenue
Liquidity
My view is simple:
Don’t fear unlocking, but don’t ignore unlocking either.
First study supply.
Then study demand.
Finally judge:
Does the market have the capacity to absorb these new chips?
This is more meaningful than simply asking:
"Will this coin go up?"
Personal market research and opinions only. Not financial advice.