Orbit Post Sitemap
Core DAO's core solution to share issuance selling pressure is a dual approach of "supply-side burn + demand-side buyback," but the deflationary effect depends on DAO execution and on-chain activity, not fixed commitments. 1. Supply side: Introducing a burn mechanism to suppress net issuance Core DAO, on top of the original "continuous issuance of block rewards," has added a token burn mechanism — cutting off portions of block rewards and on-chain fees for direct burning, effectively installing a regulator valve between the "faucet" and the "sewer" to control overall supply growth. However, note that the burn ratio is not a fixed procedure but is decided by DAO voting each round, serving as a policy tool with uncertainty. 2. Demand Side: Revenue-Driven Buybacks to Hedge Additional Issuance Pressure The core goal of the 2026 roadmap is "from showcasing yields to monetizing yields": - Convert ecosystem activity into protocol revenue through a product matrix such as Bitcoin staking, LST, and dual staking - Revenue will be used to publicly repurchase CORE tokens in the secondary market, creating sustained demand - Combined with a 17% expected reduction in mining output in 2026, supply-side tightening further 3. Ecosystem Expansion: $200 million fund + exchange cooperation In August 2026, Core DAO, together with Bitget and MEXC, launched a $200 million ecosystem fund to support early-stage project development and community building. At the same time, Bitget plans to become a Core network validator node and support staking to introduce liquidity. 4. Key Observation Indicators and Risk AssessmentRussia is officially integrating Crypto into the banking system. Starting September 1, Russia's new Crypto regulatory framework will take effect. Anatoly Popov, Vice Chairman of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, estimates that in the first year after the new system is implemented, the volume of regulated Crypto transactions could reach about 4 trillion rubles, which is approximately 46.4 billion USD; by 2029, it could reach about 7.5 trillion rubles. 1. 46 billion USD — the key point is not "suddenly having so much money" Russia already has a large demand for Crypto transactions. The real change is that some transactions that were originally completed through P2P or overseas platforms may gradually shift to banks, brokerages, and regulated platforms in the future. So this figure more so indicates that Crypto funds are migrating from gray channels to the formal financial system. 2. Crypto is shifting from "whether it can be traded" to "who provides the trading" The new system allows ordinary and qualified investors to trade Crypto through regulated intermediaries, with annual limits for ordinary investors. This means traditional financial institutions are beginning to truly enter Crypto trading, custody, and capital inflows. Many Crypto demands previously occurred outside the banking system; now the rules are trying to bring these demands back into formal channels. 3. What really matters is how much market share the formal market can capture Sberbank estimates that by 2029, the volume of regulated transactions could reach about 7.5 trillion rubles. If more and more originalThe latest ETF flows tell a more interesting story than simply “institutional money is bullish.” More than $2B flowed into crypto spot ETFs last week: • $BTC → +$924.48M • $ETH → +$824.42M • $SOL → +$153.87M • $XRP → +$110.49M The headline is the size of the inflows. The real signal is where that capital is going. Bitcoin’s nine-session inflow streak ended on August 28, with roughly $201.9M in outflows. Meanwhile, ETH, SOL and XRP continued attracting capital. That doesn’t necessarily mean invesRisk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to pay attention to risks. After multiple rounds of iteration, deep institutional involvement in the crypto market has become an irreversible reality. ETF, large asset management companies, and listed companies have continuously entered the market, reshaping the pricing logic, volatility rhythm, and chip distribution of BTC and ETH. The old cycle of retail investors, skyrocketing and plummeting, and widespread excess returns is fading away. Many participants still rely on past experience to participate in the current market, constantly hoping to replicate the returns of the old cycle, while ignoring the constraints brought by institutional environments. Expectations and reality continue to mismatch, leading to repeated missed spots or losses. Understanding the changes in the times is the only way to adjust one's expectations and adapt to a brand-new market landscape. Bitcoin is the most thorough target for institutional transformation. A large number of traditional major asset classes allocate funds to BTC as an alternative diversification tool rather than a short-term speculative product. The proportion of locked positions at long-term addresses keeps rising, while the proportion of liquidly tradable chips keeps shrinking, directly squeezing the room for extreme plunges and causing a sustained rise at the oscillating bottom. ETFs become stable channels for capital inflow and outflow. Institutions adopt a phased allocation model, taking over pullbacks during corrections. When the price rises to a level where the risk-reward ratio is insufficient, they take profits and adjust their positions. But institutional entry does not mean they will keep pushing prices up unilaterally. Institutional allocation itself has a proportional upper limit and dynamically adjusts positions according to US Treasury yields, inflation data, and the global risk environment. Historically, there are clustered areas of trapped chips above; each rebound to a resistance level releases selling pressure after unwinding.Wind cooling down at night, waiting for the short position to catch the wind 🤓
The short position was entered at 2418, silently waiting near the cost. Tonight's bet is that risk appetite will continue to cool down — U.S. stocks are slightly weak before the open, Nasdaq futures down 0.5%, and the probability of a rate hike pushed to 57%. The situation for highly leveraged longs is indeed not very friendly.
The most critical support for BTC now is 77000. Once broken, chips chased near 80000 are very likely to withdraw, and ETH's 2400 is hard to hold alone. What I really want to capture is the space below 2400.
But I choose not to short ZEC. The privacy sector and ETF expectations provide independent support. When the market weakens, it may show an independent trend. Shorting this coin together with the mainstream is prone to passivity.
Clear plan: $BTC if it breaks below 77000, panic sentiment will accelerate transmission; $ETH will move down in linkage, pay attention to volume changes after breaking 2400; $ZEC stay on the sidelines, no shorting.
Tonight, first watch the U.S. stock market open. If it really drags risk assets down together, then this meal officially begins. Wind cooling is the background, key level gains or losses are the signals, patiently waiting for the market to give the answer.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC The yellow-hair trick is still deep $BTC
Trump says "interest rates are too high" = openly calling on the Fed to cut rates
- His motive: low interest rates can support the stock market and real estate market, making the economy look lively, which benefits his public opinion; at the same time, the interest pressure on US Treasury bonds will also decrease.
- But note: the Fed is legally independent, and the president cannot directly order a rate cut. He can only "express opinions, apply pressure, and leak information," but cannot decide the interest rate.
Immediately followed by a second message: "I respect Powell, he is doing what he should do"
This is a combination move:
1) I think the interest rate is too high, it’s best to cut it;
2) But whether to cut or not, I won’t force you, the responsibility is left to the Fed chair.
Advance to attack, retreat to shift blame. If the rate doesn’t drop and the economy is bad later, he can say: I warned you long ago.September kicks off, and Bitcoin isn't losing to the bears, it's losing to the mood of oil prices. Have you noticed that what the market fears most now isn't a drop, but "not knowing which news to price in"? Let's define the phase first: this isn't a period of chasing gains, nor a one-sided panic phase; it's more like a high-difficulty oscillation game—both bulls and bears are waiting for the other side to make the first mistake. Bitcoin tested around 77K several times, then pulled back to 78K, but the real story isn't in the candlesticks, it's outside them. Crude oil has returned above $90, interest rate hike expectations are quietly rising, and geopolitical tensions are like a faucet left slightly open, dripping into the sentiment of risk assets. This week also features the US jobs report as the finale; September's character is completely different from August's. August was a lazy rebound, September is a sober reckoning. When I was watching the market, I noticed an interesting mismatch: the macro environment is clearly cooling, yet institutional hands haven't withdrawn. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows of about $924 million, and the Ethereum ETF also had $824 million in inflows. Money is still flowing into this space, just more selectively. The key question has never been "whether institutions buy," but "how much external pressure this buying power can withstand." If ETH continues to show strength while BTC consolidates, it means funds are rotating within crypto rather than exiting. The price movements of SOL and XRP are also worth viewing in the same mirror; their sensitivity to liquidity differs, but their direction tells you which asset classes funds are leaning toward. The divergence in sector strength is more convincing than the overall market's rise or fall. Strong sectors don't catch downswings.In September, the A-share index hovered around 3100, grinding investors down with no patience left, and the trading volume was even worse than in August.
Hot sectors rotated through eight in a day—solar power surged in the morning, then liquor stocks were smashed in the afternoon, catching everyone off guard.
After spending time in the stock market, you learn that in a market without volume, no matter how attractive the chart looks, it’s just an empty promise.
Just like $NEAR this past month, dropping from 4.2 to 3.6, with two small rebounds in between that couldn’t even break the 5-day moving average.
It’s the same pattern as those consumer stocks that keep falling quietly—every time you try to catch the bottom, you get trapped deeper and deeper.
And $MATIC has been stuck around 0.5 dollars for almost three weeks, fluctuating less than three cents up or down.
Isn’t that just like a zombie stock in the A-share market? Holding it wastes time, but selling it is scary because it might suddenly revive.
Right now, I’m only focused on $BTC. The 60,000 level keeps getting tested repeatedly, but every time it dips, there’s capital stepping in.
The stock market taught me one thing: the one that withstands the most in a weak market is often the true leader in the next wave.
I was basically out of the market in August, avoiding all the slow declines, and my account actually looks better than those who kept trading every day.
Remember, in a market with minimal volume, patience is worth more than anything. Wait for a surge in volume and a strong bullish candle before making a move.
Even if you buy at a few points higher then,
it’s still a thousand times safer than blindly bottom-fishing now.
Preserve your principal, and only then can an opportunity truly be called an opportunity. $HYPE is facing a very interesting test.
Hyperliquid has reportedly spent ~99% of protocol revenue on HYPE buybacks.
That’s a powerful demand mechanism.
But buybacks don’t make a token immune to a risk-off market.
If $HYPE holds $80 while BTC stays under pressure, that’s strength.
If $80 breaks, the buyback story isn’t enough by itself.
Price still decides.
#HYPE #Crypto #TradingIn September, the A-share index hovered stubbornly around 3100, with trading volume even worse than in August.
Hot sectors changed eight times a day—solar stocks surged in the morning, liquor stocks were smashed in the afternoon, and reaching out meant getting trapped.
After spending time in the stock market, you realize that in a market without volume, no matter how good the chart looks, it’s just an illusion.
Just like $OP this past month, dropping from 2.8 to 2.3, with two small rebounds in between that couldn’t even break the 5-day moving average.
It’s the same story as those consumer stocks that keep drifting down—buying the dip only to get trapped deeper each time.
And $ARB has been stuck around $0.8 for nearly twenty days, fluctuating less than three cents up or down.
Isn’t that just a zombie stock in the A-share market? Holding it wastes time, but selling it feels risky because it might suddenly revive.
Right now, my eyes are only on $BTC. The 60,000 level keeps getting tested repeatedly, but every time it dips, there’s buying support.
The stock market has taught me one thing: the one that endures the most in weakness is often the true leader in the next wave.
I was basically out of the market in August, avoiding all the downtrends, and my account looks better than those who were constantly trading.
Remember, in a market with minimal volume, patience is more valuable than anything else. It’s never too late to act once volume and a strong bullish candle appear.
Even if you buy a few points higher then,
it’s a thousand times safer than blindly bottom-fishing now.
Preserve your principal, and only then can an opportunity truly be called an opportunity. $BTC LED THE MOVE. NOW THE MARKET IS LOOKING ELSEWHERE.
The latest ETF flows are telling a more nuanced story than the headlines suggest.
More than $2B entered spot crypto ETFs last week:
$BTC → +$924.48M
$ETH → +$824.42M
$SOL → +$153.87M
$XRP → +$110.49M
The interesting part isn't just the size of the inflows.
It's the shift in where that capital is going.
Bitcoin's nine-session inflow streak ended on August 28 with approximately $201.9M in outflows.
At the same time, ETH, SOL and XRP continued seeing positive flows.
That doesn't necessarily mean the Bitcoin thesis is weakening.
It may mean the market is moving into a different stage.
BTC often becomes the first destination when institutional confidence returns.
Once Bitcoin establishes itself, investors may begin searching for assets with greater beta and different catalysts.
That's where capital rotation starts to matter.
But there is a trap here.
Seeing money move into higher-beta assets can easily create FOMO.
A trader sees SOL or XRP attracting capital and assumes the next move must be higher.
That's not guaranteed.
Capital can rotate quickly in both directions.
The same assets that outperform during risk-on conditions can underperform sharply when liquidity tightens.
So I'm not chasing the flow.
I'm tracking the sequence.
First: Is BTC stable?
Second: Is ETH gaining relative strength?
Third: Is capital spreading into SOL and XRP?
Fourth: Does that rotation survive market volatility?
If all four continue to align, it would suggest broader participation rather than a temporary rotation.
But if BTC starts losing key support while ETF outflows spread across the market, the bullish interpretation becomes much weaker.
That's why I think the next few sessions are more important than one day's numbers.
The market doesn't move because investors suddenly become bullish on everything.
It moves because capital constantly searches for the best risk-adjusted opportunity.
Right now, that flow appears to be broadening.
The question is whether it can last.
**BTC may have opened the door. In the future, when you say to AI, "Help me check this address," it might really be able to pull up on-chain data by itself.
On August 31, Etherscan officially released a new AI-oriented tool suite covering more than 60 EVM-compatible chains, offering three usage modes: MCP, CLI, and Skills.
Simply put, it’s like giving AI a more convenient on-chain "data interface."
Previously, when AI analyzed on-chain data, developers often had to find APIs themselves, handle data formatting, and then pass it to the model for analysis. Now, through MCP, programming intelligences like Claude and Codex can directly query on-chain information using natural language.
CLI can organize the results into JSON, tables, or CSV, while Skills further add capabilities like contract auditing, transaction debugging, and workflow orchestration.
What I find truly interesting is this:
If AI can continuously and stably read on-chain data, then the future relationship between AI and blockchain might be more than just "AI + a token concept."
AI needs data, and blockchain happens to have a large amount of public, real-time, and verifiable data.
Address balances, transaction records, fund flows, contract interactions—these things that used to require people to check and organize might all be directly handled by intelligent agents in the future.
So what Etherscan is doing this time, in my view, is more like building a bridge. THE ETF STORY IS GETTING MORE INTERESTING
Crypto ETF flows are showing something that deserves more attention than a simple “bullish” or “bearish” label.
More than $2B flowed into spot crypto ETFs last week:
$BTC → +$924.48M
$ETH → +$824.42M
$SOL → +$153.87M
$XRP → +$110.49M
That's significant capital entering the market.
But Bitcoin's numbers tell a different short-term story.
After nine consecutive sessions of inflows, the BTC ETF recorded around $201.9M in outflows on August 28.
Meanwhile, ETH, SOL and XRP continued attracting capital.
That creates an interesting possibility:
The market may not be losing interest in crypto. It may be redistributing that interest.
Bitcoin often leads the market when confidence returns.
Then, once BTC has already made a strong move, investors can begin looking for greater upside elsewhere.
That's when capital rotation becomes important.
ETH offers large-cap exposure with a different growth profile.
SOL provides higher-beta exposure.
XRP can attract attention when liquidity starts spreading across major altcoins.
But rotation doesn't mean everything goes up.
Higher-beta assets also carry higher downside when market conditions deteriorate.
That's why I wouldn't interpret these flows as a reason to chase the strongest performer.
Instead, I'd watch whether the rotation remains consistent.
If capital continues flowing into multiple assets while BTC maintains its structure, it could indicate that the crypto market is becoming broader and healthier.
If flows suddenly reverse across the board, that would tell a very different story.
The key is separating capital movement from market emotion.
A single ETF outflow can create fear.
A single large inflow can create FOMO.
Neither tells us enough on its own.
What matters is the trend, the price response and whether demand remains persistent during volatility.
Right now, the most interesting signal isn't that BTC had one weak flow day.
It's that capital is still appearing elsewhere.
So instead of asking:
“Is Bitcoin losing momentum?” CAPITAL ISN'T LEAVING CRYPTO — IT MAY BE CHANGING WHERE IT WANTS EXPOSURE
The latest ETF numbers tell a more interesting story than simply “inflows are bullish.”
More than $2B flowed into crypto spot ETFs last week:
• $BTC → +$924.48M
• $ETH → +$824.42M
• $SOL → +$153.87M
• $XRP → +$110.49M
The headline number is impressive.
But the real signal is in the distribution.
Bitcoin's spot ETF streak ended on August 28 with approximately $201.9M in outflows, breaking nine consecutive sessions of inflows.
At the same time, Ethereum, Solana and XRP continued attracting capital.
That doesn't automatically mean Bitcoin is losing its position.
It could simply mean investors are becoming more selective about where they want their next dollar of exposure.
After a strong BTC move, some capital may naturally look further down the risk curve for higher potential returns.
That's where $ETH, $SOL and $XRP become interesting.
But there's an important distinction:
Capital rotation is not the same as guaranteed upside.
Higher-beta assets can outperform when risk appetite expands, but they can also experience much sharper drawdowns when sentiment reverses.
So I'm not treating these flows as a signal to chase.
I'm treating them as a map.
The question is no longer just:
“Is money entering crypto?”
The better question is:
“Where is the money going once it gets here?”
If BTC stabilizes while capital continues moving into ETH, SOL and XRP, that could suggest the market is broadening rather than weakening.
If BTC starts losing important support while ETF outflows accelerate across multiple assets, the interpretation changes completely.
That's why one red session doesn't tell the whole story.
Markets rotate.
Investors take profits.
Capital searches for new opportunities.
The strongest asset today isn't necessarily the strongest asset next week.
For me, the key things to watch are simple:
BTC: Does it maintain its structure?
ETH: Can inflows translate into sustained strength?
SOL: Is higher-beta demand continuing?
XRP: Is capital rotation becoming broader? $GRVT I told you early on that the project team had already run away. If you don't believe it, you can check the blockchain yourself. The project team's address transfers coins to OKX every day to sell. Their related Twitter hasn't been updated for five days. All these activities are just to trick you into taking the loss. It's a scam team from Singapore, repeat offenders. Their previous projects were also soft RUGs where they slowly sold off until the coin price dropped to near zero. But this time the project team is smarter, running activities to coordinate the sell-off. They are unloading coins much faster than in previous projects. Don't try to catch the bottom anymore. Ignore this scam project, brothers. #grvtLNG ships in the Strait of Hormuz are still rerouting, and I think this signal is worth keeping an eye on.
On the surface, the market is focused on the Middle East situation, but looking deeper, it's actually about whether energy prices will add fuel to global inflation.
Qatar is one of the world's largest LNG suppliers, but with this conflict ongoing, LNG exports have been severely impacted. Recently, ships are still reluctant to pass through Hormuz normally, indicating that the shipping risk has not truly been resolved.
This is actually quite critical for BTC.
Because when energy prices rise, inflationary pressure tends to resurface.
Coupled with the recent hawkish stance from the Fed, the market may soon face two pressures simultaneously:
oil and gas prices rising + higher interest rate expectations.
In the short term, this is definitely uncomfortable for risk assets.
But what's interesting about BTC now is that despite all this macro noise, the price is still holding around 78K.
So I won't immediately turn bearish just because of the Hormuz news.
What I’m more focused on is a change:
If the Middle East situation continues to worsen, energy prices keep rising, and BTC still holds 77-78K, that means the underlying buying power is stronger than expected.
Conversely, if 78K is clearly broken, we need to be cautious that the market is starting to reprice the "high inflation + high interest rate" scenario.
So my strategy remains simple:
Stay bullish above 78K, reassess if it breaks below.
What BTC might be lacking now is not good news,
but a signal that can help capital reconfirm its direction.🔥 $BTC | THE SUPPLY CEILING
Bitcoin pulled in roughly $3B through spot ETFs during the latest nine-day inflow streak, yet price still struggled to stay above $80K. $BTC
The deeper thesis:
If that much demand can’t break the ceiling, the real battle isn’t buyers vs. sellers — it’s how much old supply is waiting above. 🔥$BTC
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BroadcomDellAIResults Good morning everyone. Upon waking up, I first checked the news, but the market looks rather dull.
The hottest topic this week is still employment. The Jackson Hole event in Washington just finished, and inflation remains high.
The probability of a rate hike in September has risen from about 35% to nearly 60%.
Following that, JOLTS, ADP, initial jobless claims, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls are lined up.
BTC is hovering around 79,000, just waiting for these.
Gold $XAUT is also active. The physical gold ETF had a net inflow of about 6.38 billion last week,
the largest single-week inflow in nearly ten months. Citi says this is mainly driven by futures, while Asian physical demand hasn't caught up yet.
The hot topic is also about the strengthening correlation between BTC and gold.
StarkWare on $BTC inserted the first quantum-secure transaction into mainnet block 964199.
They say no protocol changes are needed. Reported test amounts vary, so no short-term market changes.
But institutions fear the quantum narrative as experiments have begun.
$HYPE's company Hyperliquid Strategies just released fiscal year numbers.
Holdings are about 29.3 million tokens, valued around 1.9 billion at the end of June.
Net profit is about 300 million, and they are still discussing how to compliantly bring perpetual contracts into the US.
It's no coincidence that it’s more active than BTC overnight!
Don't focus on price changes in the morning session. I think the key is whether this week's employment data will further twist rate hike expectations.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 This week brings JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims and Aug payrolls, making labor data key for September policy pricing. July payrolls fell 23K and May-June were revised down 103K, signaling softer hiring. At Jackson Hole, Walsh said inflation remains above 2%, conditions are not restrictive and policy should prioritize price stability. September hike odds briefly rose from ~35% to nearly 60%, lifting yields and pressuring gold and BTC. The data will define room for his anti-inflation stance. Currently, the market is still oscillating repeatedly within a high-level range, with no clear short-term trend emerging. Bitcoin is trading in the $72,000‑$74,300 range, while Ethereum remains volatile between $2,220‑$2,340. The ongoing back-and-forth fluctuations are continuously testing the patience of traders on the floor. Many are eager to bet on a breakout or breakdown, but from the perspective of capital and macro conditions, the prerequisites for a one-sided market are still not fully met, and the strength gap between BTC and ETH continues. On the capital side, Bitcoin spot ETFs still show pulse-like flows, with occasional small inflows but insufficient continuity, and weekly redemptions frequently occur. Institutions generally maintain a defensive stance and do not actively chase highs. When the price falls back to the $72,000‑$72,800 support zone, spot buying can be seen to hold; near $74,000 on the rebound, profit-taking pressure appears. On-chain performance remains stable, exchange reserves continue to stay low, and whales and long-term holders keep transferring assets to cold wallets for safekeeping, with no signs of concentrated selling. The lower support has been tested multiple times, making the base solid. However, market trading volume remains sluggish, and the current state is a battle over existing holdings. It is difficult to break through the upper resistance relying solely on on-floor chip turnover; to open a new market, substantial external incremental funds need to enter. In contrast, Ethereum’s capital side still shows no obvious improvement. Spot ETF inflows and outflows alternate, and institutional divisions remain significant. The Layer 2 ecosystem infrastructure is mature, but overall growth has stalled. DeFi locked value, active addresses, and handRisk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to pay attention to risks. After a round of market recovery and entering a relatively high volatility range, market sentiment will change significantly. Various positive factors that have been repeatedly traded will gradually shift from upward momentum to risk points, with "buying expectations, selling facts" repeatedly. Many investors increase their positions when positive news materializes, hoping the positive will drive prices higher, only to see pullbacks after the positive is realized. BTC and ETH perform vastly differently during the positive phase of realization; understanding the logic of early expectation overdraft is the key to avoiding common traps in high-level volatility ranges. Many positive factors for Bitcoin are priced in in advance by the market. Expectations of rate cuts, ETF expansion, and compliance frameworks are being implemented before the news is officially announced but funds are gradually priced in. When the market actually takes hold, it's actually easier for funds to take profits. But because BTC has a continuous institutional allocation base, selling in the market mostly shows temporary pullbacks or sideways consolidation, with rare trend collapses. After a pullback, if the medium- and long-term logic is not broken, institutional funds will return to take over, and the bottom will continue to rise. Even so, you still can't be blindly optimistic about the high range. After a round of gains, the risk-reward ratio has dropped, and a large number of trapped and uneven positions have accumulated above, so institutions will proactively reduce exposure and control risk. You can't assume the market will continue to rise just because good news is realizing. ETFs should look at long-term cumulative inflows; after the positive signs appear, short-term subscriptions decline and phased redemptionsThe smoke of geopolitical tensions once again hung over the crypto market. U.S. airstrikes landed on Iran's Larak Island, and within hours, the Revolutionary Guards responded with missiles and drones to U.S. bases in Jordan. This was the first time in a month that Washington admitted to taking a substantial military strike against Tehran, causing BTC to plunge from $81,455 to $77,000, with $180 million in net liquidation across the internet in just one hour, with long positions accounting for $173 million. Panic is evident in the data; earlier, $202 million was just outflowed from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and institutions seemed to have sensed the trend long ago. Right now, the market is truly focused on three pieces that have yet to be moved. First, Iran's pace of retaliation: the Revolutionary Guard has clearly stated it will not give up control of the Strait of Hormuz. The average daily passage of large oil tankers on this waterway has dropped to five. If the blockade escalates, the global daily supply loss will be between 6 and 8 million barrels, and oil prices will be fiercely tugged against risk assets. Second, oil prices remain persistent: Brent has risen above $90, WTI is close to $86, and August alone has fluctuated nearly $17. Such sharp fluctuations are not healthy gains. What is even more concerning is that for every 10% increase in oil prices, U.S. CPI could be pushed up by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, and the shadow of inflation will once again loom. Third is the Fed's choice: Powell sent a hawkish signal at Jackson Hole, with annualized PCE still as high as 3.7%. Market bets on a rate hike in September have risen from 35% to 56.9%. Geopolitical factors push up oil prices, fuel prices drive up inflation, inflation forces rate hikes, and rate hikes tighten liquidity, ultimately putting pressure on the marketLeverage is often seen as a monster, and there are countless stories in the crypto world of forced liquidations due to high-multiples contracts. But if you think about it carefully, the tool itself is not inherently sinful; the problem often lies in whether the user already has a complete investment system. If the system is not established, rushing to profit naturally leads to risk following closely. In my framework, leverage and spot trading have never been separate; they are two sides of the same coin. The most intuitive understanding can be borrowed from real estate logic: when housing prices were low in the early years, people with limited capital bought quality assets through low-cost loans, and leverage amplified the compound interest of time and cognition. The crypto market is similar, but I only accept one type of leverage—bottom zone, low ratio, borrowing, only going long. It is definitely not a tenfold or twenty-fold contract game, nor daily short-term long-short speculation. This logic has three levels. First, anchor long-term assets. If the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to trend upward in the coming years, I will focus on ETH, avoid diversifying large amounts of BTC, and only consider switching when the exchange rate enters extreme ranges. Second, then assess the cyclical position. I don't obsess over bull-bear labels. By observing the ten-year heat charts of BTC and ETH, you'll find that every year has months with alternating rises and falls. What I need to do is keep cash during pullbacks and hold chips during warm-up phases. Third, only when the price truly falls into a deep value range do I activate leverage: first build a base position with spot trading, then if the market continues to dip to more extreme levels, I collateral BTC to borrow USD, then increase positions to buy BTC on the opposite side. This method doesn't pursue short-term breakouts but uses the system to restrain human natureBitcoin Just Had Its Best August In Years. But Something Is Missing.
$BTC gained roughly 24% in August, making it Bitcoin’s strongest August since 2017.
At first glance, that looks extremely bullish.
But the market is telling a more complicated story.
Bitcoin pushed above $81K, then quickly fell back toward the $77K area.
Now it is struggling to reclaim $80K.
My radar:
🟠 $BTC — strong monthly performance, but $80K remains resistance
🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength
🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite
🟢 $XRP — monitoring institutional demand
The biggest question is not whether Bitcoin rallied.
It did.
The question is whether the demand behind that rally is strong enough to push $BTC into a new breakout.
August ETF flows were strong, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting billions during the month.
But the latest session also recorded around $201.9M in outflows, ending a nine-session inflow streak. 0
That matters because price and capital flows are starting to tell slightly different stories.
$BTC has already delivered the performance.
Now the market needs confirmation.
If buyers can defend $77K and reclaim $80K with strong spot demand, the $81K–$81.5K region could come back into focus.
But if $77K breaks while ETF demand continues cooling, the August rally could need a deeper correction before another attempt higher.
September also brings another problem.
The Fed.
Markets are increasingly pricing a possible September rate hike, while higher oil prices are adding another layer of inflation pressure. 1
That means Bitcoin enters September after a powerful rally but with a less supportive macro environment.
This is why I am watching $ETH, $SOL and $XRP as well.
If they continue holding strength while $BTC consolidates, it could mean capital is rotating within crypto.
If the entire market starts breaking down together, macro pressure is probably taking control.
For me, the setup is simple.
$77K is support.
$80K is the first major resistance.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Early Monday morning, global market sentiment was completely ignited by a military piece of news. In the early hours of August 31, the U.S. military launched an airstrike on Iran's Larak Island, marking the first publicly acknowledged physical strike by the U.S. since the breakdown of the July ceasefire. Unlike Iran's unilateral blockade of the strait in March, this time the U.S. proactively attacked rocket launchers, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard responded with missiles, escalating the conflict from a simple pricing of oil price risks to a direct two-way confrontation. Within just a few hours, crude oil supply risks surged sharply, while the crypto market weakened in tandem, with Bitcoin falling below the $78,000 mark. It is worth noting that in this round of geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin's movement is highly synchronized with crude oil rather than following gold's safe-haven rhythm. Traditional safe-haven asset gold did not rise as expected but instead opened with a gap. On the surface, this seems counterintuitive, but the underlying macro logic is clear: soaring oil prices amplify concerns about energy inflation, directly squeezing the Fed's room for future rate cuts, pushing up real US dollar interest rates, and naturally putting pressure on gold, a non-yielding asset. What the market is currently pricing in is no longer just panic and risk-averse, but a renewed tug-of-war between inflation and liquidity expectations. What's intriguing is the timing context. Recently, Trump signaled negotiations, intending to start dialogue with Iran, with practical considerations behind it: domestic U.S. public sentiment is weary of war and wants to end Middle East consumption; Stabilizing oil prices and lowering inflation can also gain leverage for the midterm elections. This surprise attack has clearly compressed the space for diplomatic negotiations. As a result, the market has a mainstream speculation—some forces are not happy about a smooth U.S.-Iran reconciliation.This week, BTC's sentiment index has jumped from "extreme fear" to "extreme greed," but prices have yet to hold near the 52-week moving average (around $81,700). Both criteria for the rebound confirmation mechanism have not been met—oversold rebound, bull market judgment is still premature. From the Chan Theory perspective, the daily endpoint 5 is in the closing stage of leaving central zone A, closely watching the formation node of the second bullish pivot B; HYPE has simultaneously entered the formation phase of pivot B, with short-term attention on stabilization signals in the $73~$77 support zone. 1. Current Bitcoin Market Nature Analysis 1. Market sentiment index: shifting from "extreme fear" to "extreme greed." From the above sentiment index, it is clear that after nearly two months of rebound, especially the accelerated upward trend, market sentiment has fundamentally reversed. Market perceptions of the quality of this round of rebound have changed, with more and more views leaning toward the judgment of a "bull market return." Below, we will start from a technical perspective and summarize our core judgments of the current market stage. 2. Historical Data Resurgence and the 52-Week Moving Average Confirmation Mechanism Based on the weekly framework, we conducted a retrospective analysis of historical data from the past nine years and found that whenever the market experiences a significant trend shift (i.e., a bull-bear cycle switch), a quantitative indicator can be used to confirm it. This moving average has strong noise filtering capabilities for medium- to long-term trends and is the watershed for identifying bull and bear markets. To improve the executability of this indicator, we break it down into two quantitative confirmation criteria: 1. Position state (trend direction determination).BTC getting slapped down to 77K on rate-hike jitters and Iran escalation. Fear & Greed went from 73 → 62 in a week.
Meanwhile, Morpho vaults are still printing 20% APY on ETH. Aave Base pools sitting at 7-9% on USDC.
The question isn't whether to be in DeFi. It's whether you're comfortable with concentrated risk in isolated vaults, or you want the sleep-easy pooled model.
I'll take the vaults at these rates. Risk is priced in.Funds don't just talk tough; their flow is a direct vote.
BlockBeats reports that the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $102.1 million yesterday, maintaining net inflows for 12 consecutive trading days, indicating strong capital support.
On the same day, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $202 million, ending a 9-day streak of net inflows. One continues to advance while the other turns to outflow, a clear contrast: capital is signaling a rotation from BTC to ETH.
Twelve consecutive days of net inflows show that institutional appetite for ETH allocation is still heating up. Supported by capital, ETH is relatively resilient and even somewhat strong.
But don't just watch the excitement. After continuous large inflows, whether the marginal increase slows down is the key focus going forward. If daily inflows can maintain at the hundred-million-dollar level, ETH's relative strength is likely to continue; if inflows suddenly drop, be wary of short-term profit-taking.
Tokens involved: ETH, leaning bullish.
#ETH #Crypto100WRisk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to be aware of risks. During the long-term period of structural divergence, many participants have been waiting for ETH to gain relative strength and achieve excess returns on BTC. However, ETH outperforming BTC is not guaranteed; it does not automatically happen just because valuations are low; it requires a complete set of conditions. Most of the time, the market is dominated by certainty, with BTC holding the upper hand; Only when all specific conditions are met will growth styles enter a window period, allowing ETH to achieve relative returns. Clarifying the prerequisites for rotation triggers prevents long-term passive waiting for a no-concept recovery rally. BTC's dominant phase essentially reflects a cautious overall market risk appetite. Macro uncertainty remains, and institutions prioritize principal security when allocating funds, using BTC as the core allocation vehicle for the crypto market. ETFs continue to provide stable capital inflows, while long-term whales keep taking on chips during correction periods, forming a solid price base. At this stage, the market's core demand is value preservation and allocation, not chasing highly elastic returns. Even if the market rebounds at this time, it is mostly a recovery in nature. Funds are only willing to give BTC a certainty premium, remaining cautious about ETH's long-term narrative. ETH mostly passively follows the market upward, with the ETH-BTC exchange rate remaining sideways or continuously declining. Many investors increase their ETH positions to gamble for excess returns when the market recovers, but while the market rises, their own net value continues to underperform. In this environment, they force ETHRecently, on-chain platforms have been quite hot, especially Robinhood. After leveraging the meme market, both TVL and trading volume have surged to the top of public chains. Moreover, since meme coins can only be traded on DEXs, this has directly driven UNI token burning, pushing up UNI's price. Actually, a data point most people don't know is that the total DeFi trading volume share has increased significantly compared to before. Data shows that the recent peak was 24%, compared to less than 20% last year, and single-digit figures a few years ago. The increase in DeFi trading volume is also a sign of the ongoing development of the crypto community. Of course, this is still a trend, as the crypto community focuses on decentralized trading blockchain technology as its foundation. With the popularization of wallets, investor education, and further improvements in DeFi infrastructure, more users choosing DeFi to complete their trades is inevitable. It is foreseeable that trading volumes on CEXs and DEXs will continue to increase in the future, with the proportion of DEXs further rising and then maintaining fluctuations within a certain range. DeFi's advantages play a very obvious role in this wave of seizing the stock market pie. Coupled with the 24/7 trading nature of crypto exchanges, stock trading continues to grow. However, what puzzles me is that whether in previous bull markets or this Robinhood chain boom, meme coins have always been the catalysts. Including the "Niu Lai" meme launched on Binance yesterday, from a value investing perspective, it is quite difficultLONGi Green Energy's semi-annual report shows that photovoltaics still have to endure.
A net loss of 3.68 billion yuan in the first half of the year, compared to a loss of 2.57 billion yuan in the same period last year, with losses continuing to widen.
Weak demand, overcapacity, and price wars are cutting like three knives. The pressure from asset impairment has not yet been fully released.
So don't rush to call a turnaround in photovoltaics.
If capacity is not cleared, prices will be hard to truly stabilize; profit recovery is even less likely to appear just by shouting "cycle reversal."
On the other hand, Crypto like BTC, ETH, and DOGE follow a different logic.
Traditional industries are still waiting for capacity clearance, while the Crypto market focuses more on liquidity, capital rotation, and risk appetite.
So don't treat all assets as the same cycle now.
Photovoltaics need to wait for supply and demand to rebalance, while $BTC, $ETH, and $DOGE need to watch when capital flows back.
In short: traditional industries wait for clearance, Crypto waits for liquidity.
Whoever endures first will be qualified to seize the next market rally. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $SNDK's drop from 2300 was indeed quite severe, hitting a low near 1400 in August, nearly a 40% retracement.
But I think the main issue with this decline isn't the fundamentals; it's that the previous rise was too steep. From June to July, it surged from 1000 directly to 2350, more than doubling, so a correction was inevitable. The logic behind AI storage hasn't changed, and SanDisk's fundamentals remain solid. The investor day guidance on August 13 was quite positive.
Currently, the price is consolidating in the 1550-1600 range, which is a bit indecisive and tricky to trade. On the left side, wait around 1400; on the right side, wait for a volume breakout above 1700. The key medium-term resistance lies in the 1750-1800 area.
My judgment is that this decline is nearing its end but still needs a bottoming structure to confirm. In the short term, it may oscillate between 1400-1600 repeatedly. Only after the moving averages flatten and turnover is sufficient can the next wave begin.Last week, mainstream spot crypto ETFs still attracted over $1.9B in inflows. What really matters is not whether funds are entering the market, but rather: where is the capital flowing from and where? Latest weekly capital performance: 🟠 $BTC → +$886.3M 🔵 $ETH → +$768.7M 🟣 $SOL → +$171.5M 🟢 $XRP → +$96.8M One detail is particularly noteworthy. Previously, BTC spot ETFs maintained net inflows for several consecutive days, but then saw a single-day net outflow of about $185M, ending the flow of inflows. Meanwhile, ETH, SOL, and XRP continued to perform relatively strongly. This is more like a capital reallocation, rather than the entire crypto market bleeding. When BTC's gains slow and enter high-level consolidation, some funds may start seeking assets with higher volatility and greater resilience. This also explains why: BTC → capital growth slows, ETH → institutional demand remains resilient, SOL → high beta attributes are gaining attention, XRP → funds still receive support. Of course, single-day ETF outflows do not directly define market trends. What truly matters is to observe the coming days: 👀 Will BTC capital outflows continue? 👀 Can ETH and other mainstream coins continue to attract capital? 👀 Is capital spreading toward high-beta assets? If BTC only experiences temporary capital flows$BTC THE REAL QUESTION ISN’T “WHO IS SELLING?”
Bitcoin has already shown that institutional demand can be strong.
Now the market is entering a different phase.
The nine-session ETF inflow streak brought more than $3B of reported demand before Friday recorded roughly $201.9M in outflows.
That shift is interesting, but I don't see it as an immediate bearish signal.
After a strong rally, someone has to take profits.
The market cannot move higher forever without supply entering the order book.
What matters is what happens after the sellers appear.
If Bitcoin pulls back and buyers step in quickly, that's a completely different signal from a market where every bounce gets sold.
It means there is still capital waiting for better entries.
And that's the part I'm watching most closely.
A strong market doesn't necessarily look like constant green candles.
Sometimes strength looks like this:
Price falls.
Leverage gets reduced.
Short-term holders take profits.
Sentiment cools down.
Then stronger buyers quietly absorb the supply.
That's often where the next trend begins to develop.
The opposite is also possible.
If ETF outflows continue, spot demand weakens and BTC starts losing major support levels, then the market may be telling us that buyers need lower prices before returning.
So I don't want to make a decision based on one flow number.
I want to see how price reacts to the flow.
That's the missing piece.
Strong inflows + rising price = obvious demand.
Strong inflows + stagnant price = possible absorption or heavy selling.
Outflows + stable price = potential underlying strength.
Outflows + falling price = much more concerning.
This is why capital flow should always be viewed alongside price structure.
Bitcoin doesn't need every institution to keep buying every single day.
It needs enough demand to absorb available supply over time.
That's a much higher-quality signal.
For now, I'm watching whether BTC can maintain its broader structure while the market digests recent gains. 👻: 👉
- Scenario Analysis: Trump reiterates the ban on Iran's nuclear weapons, making the prevention of its nuclear armament a top diplomatic priority.
- Motivation Analysis: Through a maximum pressure policy, reshape the Middle East security framework and establish strong negotiation leverage.
- Economic Situation Impact: Geopolitical risks rise, crude oil supply chain premiums increase, and energy costs escalate.
- Bull-Bear Ratings:
Bulls 🟢 Defense and military-industrial sectors supported by expectations of increased defense budgets.
Bears 🔴🔴🔴 Geopolitical conflicts intensify causing oil price volatility and a rebound in inflation expectations.
- Importance: 6/10 #Focus $BTC $ETH $TRUMP Nearly $1B Entered Bitcoin ETFs. So Why Is $BTC Still Below $80K?
One thing on my radar right now is the disconnect between institutional demand and Bitcoin's price.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $924M in net inflows last week.
That is a strong amount of capital.
But $BTC is still struggling around the $78K area.
So the question is simple:
Why hasn't Bitcoin broken $80K yet?
My radar:
🟠 $BTC — strong ETF demand, but resistance at $80K
🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength
🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity conditions
🟢 $XRP — institutional demand remains important
The ETF data tells us institutions are still interested in Bitcoin.
BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for roughly $938M of the weekly inflows.
But price is telling us something different.
$BTC pushed toward $81K and failed to hold the breakout.
Then price returned toward $77K before recovering.
That creates an important battle between buyers and sellers.
On one side, institutional capital is still entering.
On the other, macro conditions are becoming less supportive.
Fed rate expectations have increased.
Treasury yields are rising.
Oil is above $90.
And geopolitical uncertainty is adding more pressure to risk assets.
So strong ETF inflows are not automatically enough to trigger a breakout.
For $BTC, the levels are clear.
$77K is the support I am watching.
$80K is the immediate resistance.
$81K–$81.5K is the breakout zone.
If Bitcoin can reclaim $80K with strong spot volume, the recent rejection could turn into a consolidation before another attempt higher.
But if $77K breaks while yields continue rising, institutional demand may need more time to absorb the selling pressure.
This is also where $ETH becomes interesting.
If Ethereum continues showing relative strength while $BTC remains below $80K, it could suggest capital is rotating within crypto rather than leaving the market.
$SOL and $XRP are worth watching for the same reason.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults $BTC A STRONG MARKET ISN’T ONE THAT NEVER SELLS OFF
Bitcoin's recent ETF activity has been impressive, with more than $3B in reported inflows during the nine-session buying streak.
Then came the first meaningful interruption:
Around $201.9M in ETF outflows on Friday.
The easy reaction is to call it bearish.
I'm not convinced.
The more important test begins when the market stops receiving constant positive flow.
A rally can look powerful when capital is continuously chasing higher prices.
But the real strength of an asset becomes clearer when buyers have to absorb profit-taking, uncertainty and short-term selling pressure.
That's where Bitcoin is now.
The question isn't whether some investors are taking profits.
Of course they are.
After a strong move, selling is normal.
The question is whether new demand is strong enough to replace that supply.
If it is, the market can continue building higher even with occasional ETF outflows.
If it isn't, Bitcoin may need to consolidate or retrace before buyers become interested again.
This is also why I wouldn't judge the entire institutional narrative from a single day's flow.
One outflow doesn't erase weeks of demand.
But several consecutive outflows combined with weakening price action would deserve much more attention.
For me, the next phase is about confirmation.
I'm watching whether BTC can hold its important support areas.
I'm watching whether spot demand returns when price becomes less attractive to momentum traders.
And I'm watching whether volume expands when buyers attempt another breakout.
Bitcoin rising because everyone is chasing it
and
Bitcoin holding because investors are willing to accumulate weakness.
The second one is much more interesting.
A healthy market needs both buyers and sellers.
Profit taking isn't necessarily a problem.
Sometimes it is exactly what allows stronger hands to enter.
If sellers distribute their positions and new capital absorbs that supply without allowing BTC to lose its broader structure, the market could actually become more resilient. Don't blindly believe in the "safe haven" narrative. Bitcoin and Ethereum are now fighting for survival logic.
When geopolitical conflicts flare up, Bitcoin didn't act as gold; instead, it became a tough companion to crude oil, falling below $78,000. Gold fell, BTC followed—the market is clearly trading on "inflation stickiness"—oil prices push inflation up, the Fed can only stubbornly maintain high interest rates, real rates rise, and all zero-yield assets get hit together.
Wake up, BTC's "digital gold" image is shattered. In this cycle, it is a high-beta risk asset, the first to be hit when liquidity recedes. As long as the Fed doesn't ease, Bitcoin will struggle to have a trending market; oscillation and gradual decline are the norm.
Ethereum is even worse: gas fees have flattened, ecosystem enthusiasm has cooled, ETFs continue to bleed, and its drop is much harsher than Bitcoin's. But resilience lies here—volatility is a double-edged sword; once macro sentiment reverses, ETH's spring-like nature will explode first. Right now, it’s not the leader in gains but a leveraged blade for swing trading.
My simple approach is still dollar-cost averaging, but with a focus on offense and defense:
· BTC, 60% of the portfolio, steadfast monthly buys as the base holding.
· ETH, 30% of the portfolio, grid buys on dips, specialized for volatility.
· 10% cash, waiting for extreme panic days—like moments when the market crashes over 10% in a single day—to scoop up and exit quickly, never holding on to a losing battle.
Don't try to guess the bottom, don't argue logic, the market makers won't reason with you. Survive and wait for the wind to change. Bitcoin is sitting around $77.8K after failing to hold the recent move toward $81K.
August was still a powerful month, with BTC recovering roughly 24–25% from the low-$60Ks and briefly trading above $80K. But now the easy momentum has cooled, and the market is asking a much harder question:
Is this consolidation before another breakout, or the beginning of a deeper correction?
Right now, the price structure is giving both sides a reason to hesitate.
The first important area is around $77.2K.
If buyers continue defending this zone, Bitcoin can remain trapped between support and the psychological $80K resistance.
Below that, $75.7K becomes much more important. A decisive break and failed reclaim would weaken the current structure and could open the door toward the mid-$75K area.
On the upside, $80K–$81.4K remains the major supply zone.
Bitcoin already showed that it can trade above $80K.
The question is whether it can stay there.
That distinction matters.
A quick move above resistance can simply be a liquidity sweep.
A breakout that holds, consolidates and turns resistance into support is a completely different signal.
ETF flows add another layer to the picture.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs still recorded about $924M in net inflows during Aug. 24–28, despite BTC struggling to stay above $80K. The Aug. 28 session itself saw roughly $201.9M in outflows, ending a nine-session inflow streak.
So institutional demand hasn't simply disappeared.
Instead, we're seeing an interesting divergence:
Capital is still coming in, but price is struggling to push through resistance.
That tells me sellers around $80K are still significant.
And this is exactly why I wouldn't force a large leveraged position in the middle of the range.
Shorting around $78K can be dangerous if buyers defend support and squeeze the market back toward $80K.
Going aggressively long around $78K isn't attractive either when the market hasn't confirmed that the correction is finished.
This is where many traders get trapped.
They feel they need to trade because the market is moving. This week brings JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims and Aug payrolls, making labor data key for September policy pricing. July payrolls fell 23K and May-June were revised down 103K, signaling softer hiring. At Jackson Hole, Walsh said inflation remains above 2%, conditions are not restrictive and policy should prioritize price stability. September hike odds briefly rose from ~35% to nearly 60%, lifting yields and pressuring gold and BTC. The data will define room for his anti-inflation stance.Let's talk about a macro hidden line covered by the encrypted K-line: Trump laid his cards on the table last night, ExxonMobil and Chevron will enter Venezuela, and he also said the U.S. will replenish its strategic petroleum reserves. On one hand, there's talk of increasing production; on the other, calls to replenish inventories. The oil market game is getting bigger and bigger.
What does this mean for trading? Increasing production is a force to suppress oil prices, but "replenishing strategic reserves" is a solid buy order. These two forces hedge each other, making the short-term direction of oil prices even harder to bet on. And this oil price line is directly connected to inflation expectations, the pace of interest rate hikes, and the interest rate ceiling above $BTC.
So don't just focus on the coin price when watching the coin price. How crude oil moves often determines your winning or losing move this month more than that neighboring encrypted K-line.Here's the most trade-relevant tech case today: Apple has officially sued OpenAI, accusing them of stealing trade secrets. Apple claims to have found new evidence in a MacBook provided by OpenAI last August, alleging that OpenAI used Apple's proprietary information to train AI agents and even accessed circuit diagrams of power adapters. Apple is now requesting expedited disclosure of evidence.
Why does this matter for the market? The entire AI narrative has been the main engine driving risk assets this year, with $NVDA's earnings and computing power expansion supporting everyone's valuation expectations. But once the top players shift from "collaboration" to "mutual accusations of trade secret theft," the market will inevitably have to reprice the certainty of this narrative.
When giants clash, it's gossip in the short term but a narrative fracture in the long term. This underlying thread is more worth noting than a single bullish candlestick on the chart.In September, the A-shares market saw the Shanghai Composite hovering around 3100 points for twenty days, with trading volume shrinking from 600 billion to 400 billion.
Several positive policies were introduced, but every time the market opened higher, it turned into an opportunity to run, specifically targeting retail investors chasing rallies.
Spending enough time in the stock market makes it clear that this "all good news priced in" script is the same pattern as pump news in the crypto space.
Recently, $UNI was pumped from $7.5 to $8.2; once the news spread, those who chased got stuck halfway up the mountain.
Three days later, it dropped back to $7.3, failing even to hold the starting point, very much like those A-shares thematic stocks that dump after announcements.
Then there's $AVAX, repeatedly faking breakouts around $25; every time volume surged, people thought it was a real start.
What happened? The next day, it shrank volume and drifted down, mirroring the trend in our photovoltaic sector—pure deception.
Now I only watch $BTC, which has been sideways between 59,000 and 62,000 for almost two weeks, no volume means no movement.
In August, I made a trade in the stock market, earned 3% and exited, avoiding the subsequent four consecutive down days.
Remember, in a low-volume market, patience beats any technical indicator.
Wait until the two markets’ trading volume returns to 800 billion, or Bitcoin breaks above 65,000 with volume, then go all in.
Entering a few days late won’t lose money, but entering one day too early might lose all profits. Staying alive is better than anything else. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 This week, the US employment data lineup is intense, with ADP, initial jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls coming one after another. The market will once again scrutinize: Is Walsh continuing to focus on inflation and applying the brakes, or quietly easing off after seeing employment cool down? This round of employment data not only determines rate cut expectations but also tests how firm Walsh's previously tough stance really is. If new job additions are strong, unemployment remains stable, and wage growth is on the hot side, it indicates the US economy can still hold up, giving Walsh more confidence to emphasize inflation risks. The market will reprice for "higher rates staying longer," strengthening the dollar and US Treasuries, which is short-term bearish for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin happens to be at a high level, it might use this opportunity to shake out the bulls! Conversely, if employment clearly cools and unemployment rises, the market will preemptively bet on policy easing. The dollar and Treasury yields will fall, giving BTC a chance to retest previous highs. But if the data is too bad, don't pop the champagne yet; the market might first trade recession fears, causing a collective plunge in risk assets before a big V-shaped recovery. The most likely scenario is a moderate slowdown in employment without a crash. This leaves room for policy easing without triggering recession alarms, which is most favorable for BTC in the medium term. Employment data sets the questions, Walsh answers them, and Bitcoin tests both bulls and bears to the point of existential doubt $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Last night, the three major US stock indexes all fell—the Dow dropped 0.7%, the S&P and Nasdaq also closed in the red, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped more than 2 points in one day, and Alibaba fell 4%. Risk assets collectively weakened in the same direction, and $BTC was no exception, lingering near seventy-eight thousand with a bearish tone.
People often ask me whether to buy the dip or short at this level. My answer is: neither should be rushed. In this "stocks down, crypto follows" linkage, the biggest mistake is to talk about crypto's independent story—the overall market bias hasn't eased, so crypto is unlikely to rally against the trend on its own. I’m almost fully short on futures, not because I lack an opinion, but because I’m waiting for the market bias to give a clear direction first.
Do you think this is the start of a risk-off phase, or just another fake move on a thin Monday market?#Anthropic: New IPO Developments, Prospectus Expected to be Public in September Anthropic's IPO is clearly accelerating. The latest news shows that the company plans to publicly release the IPO prospectus after the US Labor Day, with a potential listing window around late September to early October. Previously, Anthropic secretly submitted an S-1 draft to the SEC in June, so if the prospectus is officially made public this time, it means the market will be able to see for the first time its revenue, costs, cash flow, and the actual level of AI computing power investment.
I believe what is truly worth watching is not "Anthropic is finally going public," but how much valuation premium the public market is willing to give to cutting-edge AI companies.
The market has even discussed a potential valuation close to $2 trillion, and the core supporting this pricing is the expectation of rapid future revenue growth. But Anthropic is also aggressively expanding its computing power, with a six-year computing power agreement signed with Nscale alone reaching $45 billion.
Therefore, after the prospectus is made public, the three numbers I am most focused on are: revenue growth rate, computing power costs, and free cash flow.
If growth can cover the huge capital investment, the high valuation still makes sense; if revenue grows quickly but requires continuously higher computing power costs, then the market is ultimately trading not profits but a very expensive long-term expectation.
This IPO by Anthropic may not only be about pricing itself but also the public market's first real pricing of the "cutting-edge large model" business.Iran attacked Jordan, US stocks first faltered, but BTC is still hovering around 78K.
I actually find this quite interesting.
Yesterday, the US and Iran exchanged fire again, pushing oil prices directly above $90, and the market immediately started worrying about one issue:
If oil prices keep rising, what about inflation?
Coincidentally, with the Fed turning hawkish, expectations for a rate hike in September were already heating up. Another surge in energy prices will only increase the market's interest rate pressure.
Logically, this environment is not very friendly to BTC.
But after BTC fell from around 81K to a low near 77K, it is still fluctuating around 78K.
This shows that although the market is scared, there hasn’t been obvious panic selling yet.
Right now, I’m watching two levels:
77K — whether the pullback here can hold.
80K — when BTC can reclaim this level.
If 77K holds, this wave of BTC looks more like a high-level consolidation.
If the Middle East situation continues to escalate and oil prices keep pushing up, and BTC can still hold 78K or even break above 80K again, then the strength of this market is worth serious attention.
Personally, I’m still bullish for now, not chasing short-term moves, waiting for BTC to take back 80K on its own.
The real signal this time might be hidden in "the war escalated, but BTC didn’t really drop".
$BTC #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 Brothers, August has ended, and BTC delivered a surprisingly good report card.📈
Starting from 62,000, it surged past 81,000 at its peak, closing near 78,400 at the end of the month, up 23% for the month, outperforming gold (9%) and the Nasdaq (4%), marking the strongest August performance since 2017.
🔥 Three driving forces: ETF inflows of $3.3 billion for the month, BlackRock IBIT absorbed $600 million in a single day; US Treasury bond repurchases doubled, a weaker dollar ignited a "devaluation trade"; shorts were collectively slaughtered, with about $9.7 billion liquidated over two weeks.
⚠️ At the end of the month, Powell turned hawkish, and BTC dropped from 81,000 back to 77,000. The probability of a rate hike in September is priced at 58%, and upcoming non-farm payroll data will decide whether this fire continues to burn or gets extinguished.
August ended well, but September is the real test.👇$BTC Inflation in Europe is once again sounding the alarm for the market.
Germany's consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year in August, higher than July's 2.8%, marking the highest level since April. Although this is below the market's original expectation of 3.1%, the trend itself is still noteworthy.
What I am more concerned about is not how high the 2.9% figure is, but the reasons behind it.
Energy prices have once again become the main driving factor. The Middle East situation has not eased significantly, and rising oil and gas prices are transmitting inflationary pressure to Europe. Similar situations have been seen in data previously released by France and Spain.
This puts the European Central Bank in a rather awkward position.
On one side is the pressure on economic growth, and on the other is the inflationary pressure brought by energy prices. If inflation continues to rise, monetary policy will naturally find it difficult to quickly shift toward easing.
According to the current official schedule, the European Central Bank has already raised interest rates once, and the market expects another rate hike on September 10. Traders have even started betting on further tightening of policy next year.
From the perspective of the crypto market, I think this signal cannot be ignored.
In the past, people were more accustomed to focusing on the Federal Reserve, but now Europe is also showing the chain of "energy price rise → inflation heating up → interest rate expectations turning hawkish."
If this situation continues to spread, the global liquidity environment may be more complex than imagined.
So, how BTC, ETH, and other risk assets move next cannot be judged by their own charts alone.
Oil prices, European inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank may be jointly determining the next phase of market sentiment. #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens After BTC's rapid rebound, the real focus is no longer whether it can continue to rise, but whether there is enough incremental capital at the high level to complete turnover.
This round of BTC and gold linkage has clearly strengthened. Essentially, both share a similar trading logic behind them: market concerns about fiscal deficits, long-term inflation, and the decline in fiat currency purchasing power lead capital to seek scarce assets again. Gold is the traditional answer, while BTC increasingly resembles another choice in the digital age.
But the biggest short-term variable comes from the Federal Reserve.
After Waller released a hawkish signal, the market re-priced higher interest rate expectations. If the US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to strengthen, it will put pressure on gold and theoretically also be unfavorable for BTC. Therefore, the most valuable observation going forward is not how much BTC rises, but whether BTC can maintain relative strength when gold is under pressure.
If gold continues to adjust while BTC still holds key support or even breaks upward again, it indicates that there may be independent ETF funds and risk appetite supporting the crypto market internally; conversely, if BTC weakens again following gold, then the previous rise was more likely a resonance driven by macro liquidity.
High-level oscillation is not garbage time but a re-pricing of BTC's asset attributes.
The real question to answer in the next phase is: does the market continue to treat BTC as a high Beta risk asset, or does it start assigning it more "digital gold" pricing weight? This may determine the height of the subsequent market trend.