Orbit Post Sitemap
BTC returns to $81,000 Bitcoin breaks through the $80,000 high and fluctuates, will it continue to rise afterward?
After a strong rebound, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a high level above $75,000. The market briefly broke through $80,000, marking the first time since mid-May it touched this threshold, but it failed to hold and then retreated. The battle between bulls and bears has intensified, with profit-taking pressure and bottom-fishing buying continuously tugging back and forth.
Currently, the most discussed topic in the market is the timing pattern of Bitcoin's major cycle bottoms. Reviewing history, the three landmark cycle lows occurred in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022, with an average interval of about 3.91 years between bottoms. Projecting forward from the November 2022 bear market low, the estimated potential key time window falls exactly in August-September 2026, which is the phase we are currently in.
Historically, after each major cycle bottom is established, a massive bull market follows, with gains often reaching thousands of percentage points from the low to the bull market peak. This is why many traders value this cycle model. However, it is important to be clear-headed: history does not simply repeat itself. Now that institutional funds have entered the market on a large scale, the market size is vastly different from before. Past explosive gains cannot be linearly extrapolated. The 3.91-year interval is merely a statistical observation and does not guarantee that a major cycle bottom will form in August-September. Talking about a hidden line covered by the K-line, the trading flavor is strong: these days Trump is on one hand hinting at possibly striking Iran again to push oil prices up, while on the other hand he has scheduled a meeting with refiners on Tuesday to discuss expanding refining capacity and lowering gasoline prices. Pushing up with the left hand and pressing down with the right hand, the same person with two sets of actions. This kind of contradictory policy signal is the worst when you rush to trade based on whichever statement you hear. The oil price line connects to inflation, connects to interest rate hikes, and ultimately leads all the way to the discounted valuation of $BTC. My approach is simple: put the policy rhetoric aside first, wait for it to materialize into real supply or price changes before making a move. Are you the type to act on every rumor, or do you wait for the cards to be revealed before betting? The market is re-evaluating the liquidity risk of high-valuation assets, and the case of $HYPE provides a clear reference point.
With a monthly unlocking scale of about 14.18 million tokens, corresponding to a potential supply exceeding $1.1 billion, even if monthly revenue is calculated at the peak value of $120 million, the buyback coverage ratio is still only a fraction.
When the price climbs near $80, the incentive to cash out chips naturally rises. Even though the actual claim rate is currently only about 1.8%, this structural pressure is hard to ignore.
More critically is the valuation anchor: annual revenue of about $1 billion corresponds to a market value of $80 billion, implying about an 80x revenue multiple, a figure that will be the first to come under pressure when liquidity tightens.
In contrast, $FIL, representing decentralized storage infrastructure, has a valuation logic more closely aligned with actual network usage and data demand growth, rather than a high multiple of discounted revenue expectations.
What is worth observing next is the actual claim pace of unlocked chips; once the claim rate rises significantly, the liquidity landscape will change rapidly.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 #Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估Market Watch | Token Buybacks Highly Concentrated, HYPE and PUMP Account for the Vast Majority of Shares
By 2026, the total scale of token buybacks in crypto projects has reached $638 million, but the funds are highly concentrated. HYPE buybacks amount to about $370 million, PUMP about $200 million, together accounting for nearly 90% of the total reported buybacks. Other projects participating in buybacks include SKY, LDO, LINK, JUP, but their investment scale is significantly smaller compared to the top two tokens.
The buyback logic draws from traditional stock markets, using protocol revenue to buy and burn tokens on the secondary market, shrinking circulating supply and conveying project confidence to the market. However, buybacks do not mean prices only rise and never fall; even with continuous buybacks, prices are still affected by the overall market, whale liquidations, and macro interest rate disturbances. Previously, some whales transferred part of their HYPE to exchanges preparing to take profits; while buybacks provide support, profit-taking pressure objectively exists as well.
This buyback game logic is very similar to the U.S. stock $KO Coca-Cola. Coca-Cola also rewards shareholders through stock buybacks, with solid fundamentals, but institutional opinions remain highly divided. Buybacks are a positive factor but cannot offset potential risks from valuation and policies; funds will still take profits in batches at high levels. Token buybacks follow the same principle, serving as a bullish tool but not a price insurance.
Currently, the market is tugging at high levels, the fear and greed index has entered the greed zone, and macro employment data has yet to be released. Even with buyback mechanisms in place, systemic corrections cannot be resisted. HYPE and PUMP have ridden strong buybacks to achieve strong market performance. Those still hoping for rate cuts to save crypto, first take a look at the gravitational pull of interest rates: the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 4.75% today, hitting a new high since January 2025. This isn’t just sentiment; it’s real money voting for "more rate hikes"—according to CME data, the probability of a rate hike in September has already passed 55%. When rates are pushed up, why should assets like $BTC, which are highly volatile and have zero cash flow, float lightly on their own? I'm not saying an immediate crash is coming, but you need to be aware of which way the wind is blowing. The rate cut narrative has been talked about for over half a year—how many times has it actually materialized? Are you betting on that story or on the current odds? $CORE
$STX
Both are institutions in the BTCFi track, but the gap between them is so obvious: one is strong and powerful, the other fragile! Constantly hyping the leader, don't overstate the coin you hold, as it only harms others and yourself.
Focus on the three major BTCFi sub-tracks + their respective leaders
1. Native BTC Staking / Restaking (currently the largest scale and highest capital recognition) Leader: Babylon (BABY) - Positioning: underlying staking protocol, no cross-chain or BTC packaging needed, Bitcoin stays on the BTC mainnet for staking, providing security for other POS public chains and earning yields - Data: Mid-2026 TVL about $5.6 billion, accounting for more than half of the entire BTCFi staking sector, currently the top locked capital in the BTCFi track - Shortcoming: Not a layer-2 public chain itself, cannot run DeFi applications, only does staking infrastructure Second tier: Lombard, Solv Protocol (SolvBTC) leading the liquid staking track, focusing on BTC yield derivatives
2. Bitcoin Layer-2 / Sidechains (can run DeFi and contract applications, CORE you care about is in this track) This track has no universally recognized single leader, divided into 2 routes
Route A: Native Bitcoin Layer-2 (non-EVM) Leader: Stacks (STX) - The oldest layer-2 project in the Bitcoin ecosystem, online for over 5 years, uses PoX consensus without modifying Bitcoin's base layer; mainly promotes sBTC native Bitcoin DeFi, following the original Bitcoin philosophy
Route B: EVM-compatible sidechains (Ethereum developers can directly deploy contracts) Competitors: 1. CORE (Core-DAO): independent L1 public chain, Satoshi-Plus consensus, EVM compatible. Team anonymous, unlocking selling pressure has always been the biggest risk, a second-tier competitor, not the layer-2 track leader 2. Merlin Chain (MERL): ZK layer-2 originating from inscription assets, market highly tied to BRC-20 hype 3. Rootstock (RSK): veteran Bitcoin sidechain 4. Bitlayer: BitVM zero-knowledge layer-2, with computing power resource advantage Simple conclusion: STACKS is the veteran leader of Bitcoin layer-2; CORE is one of the competitors in the EVM sidechain track but not the overall BTCFi track leader 3. Lightning Network (payment BTCFi) Leader: Lightning Network, no token, focuses on low-cost, fast Bitcoin transfers
Leader status Core features Babylon BTC native staking Restaking ✅ Largest capital scale in the entire track BTC staking without cross-chain yield Stacks (STX) Bitcoin layer-2 L2 ✅ Native layer-2 leader Native Bitcoin, no EVM, long online time CORE EVM sidechain public chain ❌ Second-tier competitor EVM compatible, anonymous team Merlin (MERL) ZK-L2 ❌ Second-tier competitor Inscription asset direction 2026 BTCFi track summary 1. Capital leader = Babylon (staking track); veteran layer-2 leader = Stacks; 2. CORE is just one of many competitors in the BTCFi EVM sidechain track, track popularity ≠ CORE will definitely rise; 3. The BTCFi track is still in early stages, the pattern is not fully formed, intense competition, new projects can seize liquidity anytime.A series of employment data will influence September interest rate expectations
JOLTS job openings, ADP, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payrolls will be released successively. The quality of these data will directly affect the market pricing of September interest rates.
July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, combined with a cumulative downward revision of 103,000 for May and June, indicating signs of cooling in corporate hiring. In his speech at Jackson Hole, Waller continued to prioritize anti-inflation efforts, stating that current financial conditions are still not tight enough. After the speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged from 35% to nearly 60%, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and both gold and BTC came under pressure.
Two scenarios are very clear going forward. If employment continues to weaken this week, the market will again question the necessity of further rate hikes; if employment remains resilient, it will confirm Waller's hawkish view, and risk assets will face renewed pressure.
This logic of validating positions based on data is very similar to $KO Coca-Cola. Coca-Cola's earnings report was impressive, but institutional opinions are sharply divided. No matter how good the narrative is, it requires continuous verification by subsequent data. Once key indicators weaken, capital will reprice accordingly.
In the crypto market, the current market is being pulled at a high level, with the greed index in the greed zone, indicating overheated sentiment. Macro factors remain the biggest variable hanging overhead, and employment data will become a catalyst for short-term market moves. Strong data will strengthen U.S. Treasuries, making BTC prone to a shakeout; weak data will raise rate cut expectations, giving risk assets a chance to breathe. Bitcoin hovers around $77,500, with a slight 1.6% pullback in 24 hours, and market sentiment feels somewhat delicate. The previously priced-in hawkish expectations have now left the price stuck in a sideways range, which in itself is intriguing.📉
Employment data fell below the 100,000 mark, and this chill directly changed market bets on policy direction—traders are beginning to believe that new Fed official Walsh may not dare to aggressively raise rates. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weakened accordingly, showing signs of easing liquidity.
Currently, BTC’s movement looks more like waiting for directional confirmation rather than a trend reversal. Some worry it might slide down a certain downward path, but the sideways consolidation also means bulls and bears are recalibrating expectations. Notably, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is strengthening, while earnings reports and AI-related guidance from tech giants like Broadcom and Dell are quietly influencing the pricing logic of risk assets.📊
The market is waiting for clearer signals; whether from macro data or policy statements, these could be the key to breaking the deadlock. Short-term volatility is inevitable, so staying observant is more prudent than rushing to conclusions.
Risk warning: The market carries uncertainties; please view price fluctuations rationally and manage risks properly. $BTC🚨 Bitcoin money is moving… but it may not be leaving crypto.
Something interesting happened with ETF flows.
On Aug. 27, institutions were buying everything: $BTC +$235.6M
$ETH +$225.8M
$SOL +$56.1M
$XRP +$18.5M
Then just one day later, Bitcoin flipped to -$211.2M in outflows.
But here’s the part that caught my attention 👀
ETH, SOL, and XRP stayed positive.
This doesn't necessarily look like capital exiting crypto.
It looks more like capital rotating.
#DailyOrbit AI dividend supports US softline retail, but consumer side remains uncertain
According to Newswires, UBS Securities released a view on Monday, believing that the US softline retail sector (categories such as apparel and home textiles) is expected to continue benefiting from the industry dividends brought by the AI boom. However, current fluctuations in consumer spending will still disrupt the sector's performance.
AI is reshaping the entire retail chain, from inventory management and marketing deployment to user demand forecasting. The implementation of technology can help companies reduce costs, improve turnover efficiency, and open up possibilities for profit improvement. However, technology is only a tool for efficiency enhancement; the final performance still depends on actual consumer purchasing power. If consumer willingness weakens, even AI-optimized internal operations will struggle to offset the pressure caused by declining end demand. This is the core reason UBS remains cautious.
This logic of "positive narrative but cautious about real fundamental constraints" is highly similar to the US stock $KO Coca-Cola. Coca-Cola has multiple impressive narratives such as sugar-free transformation and pricing power, with Q2 earnings exceeding expectations, but there is significant divergence in institutional views. Some institutions are optimistic about growth prospects, while others worry that valuations already fully reflect the positives, and the policy risk of Mexico's sugar tax remains unresolved. No matter how good the story, it cannot detach from real fundamentals; AI dividends do not equal a one-sided rise in the sector.
The same reasoning applies to the crypto market. The market is often ignited by various technological narratives triggering FOMO sentiment, just like the current Fear & Greed Index reaching 74 in the greed zone, with funds frantically chasing various hot concepts. Anthropic's massive IPO is coming, but the market simply can't support so many trillion-dollar valuations — though it does give us an opportunity to short and profit! The fundraising scale is benchmarked against SpaceX's $86.2 billion, so market funds being siphoned off is inevitable. One month before SpaceX went public, 14 companies rushed to list, and after listing, the weighted average loss was 9.5%. Currently, the weighted average return of US IPOs is only 5.6%, underperforming the S&P 500'sJust now I thought about it carefully again, mainly pondering whether the crypto market is turning bullish or just experiencing a rebound. I'm a bit conflicted now. A couple of days ago, I was saying that the influx of new funds into the crypto market meant it was turning bullish, but I feel this might be an illusion.
I probed the deepest answer within myself, and I feel the bull market hasn't arrived yet! Looking at what has happened over the past month, inflation expectations still haven't stabilized at the rigid 2% constraint, external war factors continue to occur frequently, and trade conflicts between countries happen repeatedly.
From on-chain data, old OGs haven't shown a phenomenon of massively increasing their holdings of BTC assets in a short period; they are still accumulating in batches. In fact, this off-exchange capital is more inclined to come from Wall Street institutional funds buying in. After the AI bubble expanded and the wave receded, funds needed cheaper assets, so they bought BTC, which had weak liquidity at the time.
Moreover, a bull market generally goes through four stages from start to finish: rebuilding recovery, main rise, distribution, and clearing. The panic sentiment of the rebuilding recovery phase hasn't even been triggered before the price surged directly, which doesn't align with the objective accumulation rules. Therefore, I still have some doubts about this rally, but it's also possible that the bull market is just like this, causing latecomers like me to miss the opportunity!
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH $SOL @天才交易员绿毛 @天才少女秋秋 @多多不梭哈 Anthropic's massive IPO is coming, but the market simply can't support so many trillion-dollar valuations — though it does give us an opportunity to short and profit! The fundraising scale is benchmarked against SpaceX's $86.2 billion, so market funds being siphoned off is inevitable. One month before SpaceX went public, 14 companies rushed to list, and after listing, the weighted average loss was 9.5%. Currently, the weighted average return of US IPOs is only 5.6%, underperforming the S&P 500'sWhy do I say $HYPE is a good project, but not necessarily a good price?
You can figure it out just by doing the math.
1️⃣ Currently, about 14.18 million HYPE tokens are unlocked monthly, which at the current price corresponds to approximately $1.1 billion in potential supply.
2️⃣ HYPE does use most of its revenue for buybacks, but the current monthly revenue is about $55 million. Even if we consider the previous peak monthly revenue of $120 million, it’s still hard to cover the potential monthly unlocked supply of $1.1 billion.
3️⃣ What’s really interesting now is that the actual claim rate is only about 1.8%, so the unlocking pressure hasn’t been fully released yet.
But here’s the problem.
If the price rises to around $80, will the incentive to cash out tokens become stronger?
Even if only a small portion of unlocked tokens end up being sold, the supply side will noticeably increase.
More importantly—a platform with about $1 billion in annual revenue, if the market values it at $80 billion, means roughly an 80x revenue multiple.
So my view has always been simple:
HYPE might be a good project, but a good project ≠ a good price.
No matter how strong the fundamentals are, it depends on the valuation at which you buy in.
Buying a project means profiting from growth;
Buying at a high price means betting that someone else will buy at an even higher price.📊 The recent moves with SOL are really entertaining. At $102, are you chasing it?
Originally, inflation was supposed to decrease gradually, but the SGP‑0002 proposal narrowly passed, triggering a "bungee-style slimming".
The annual deflation rate doubled from 15% to 30%, halving the time to reach the 1.5% terminal inflation, with 18.9 million fewer SOL minted over the next six years, significantly shrinking new token supply.
🧠 Market status:
Starting from the 70-80 range in August, it surged to 110, with a maximum gain close to 50%. It has currently pulled back to 102, temporarily holding the 100 whole number support.
BTC is oscillating around 77,000, SOL shows clear resilience but the upward breakout has yet to materialize.
The monthly chart ended nearly 10 months of consecutive declines, the mid-term uptrend structure remains intact, with the 80-82 moving average cluster forming a strong bottom support.
① Supply side accelerates contraction, asset attributes continue to harden
After the proposal's implementation, inflation continues to converge toward the 1.5% terminal target, drastically reducing the token "inflation tax," increasing scarcity, allowing long-term holders to directly benefit from dividends.
② Wall Street funds are entering, institutional narratives officially open
Charles Schwab, a brokerage giant with 39 million accounts, plans to launch SOL spot trading, with SOL as a key promoted asset.
Bitwise SOL staking ETF surpassed $1 billion in scale, spot SOL ETF net inflows significantly warmed up in August, with continuous institutional capital inflow.
③ On-chain data fully explodes, the market is not just inflated
In August, multiple Solana indicators hit all-time highs: on-chain transaction volume, DEX trading, perpetual contracts, tokenized stock trading volume.
DeFi TVL rebounded to $5.8 billion, Sanctum surpassed Jupiter to become the top TVL protocol; stablecoin supply reached $16 billion, second only to ETH and Tron.
Network-wide staking rate is about 70%, and network fees rise in sync with on-chain activity.
④ Subsequent technical upgrades catalyze
Transaction V1 launched on September 9;
Agave 4.2 upgrade reduces storage rent, expands transaction capacity, iterating toward a 200ms block time target.
🎯 Key price levels
▪️ Resistance above: 105 → 110
▪️ Support below: 100 → 95
📌 Trading strategy
✅ Bullish bias
Hold 100-102 with volume-increasing bullish candles, go light long, stop loss below 98;
First target 105-107, breakout target 110-115.
More conservative: wait for a clear rebound signal at strong support 95-97 before entering.
⚠️ Short-term bearish bias
If unable to hold above 103-105 or volume breaks below 101, light short positions can be tried;
Stop loss above 104-105, targets 100 → 98 → 95.
🛡️ Conservative wait-and-see
High probability of oscillation between 100-105, wait for breakout or breakdown to follow the trend;
Alternatively, wait for the September 4 non-farm payroll release for clearer macro direction.
⚠️ Risks to be clear
1. The proposal only accelerates inflation decline, not zero deflation; new tokens are still being released;
2. SOL is a high-beta asset; the market, Fed data, and Middle East geopolitics will suppress the trend, with volatility much greater than BTC;
3. High-level oscillation, avoid blind all-in, strictly use stop loss, and manage position size well.
Supply contraction + on-chain fundamentals recovery + institutional capital inflow, this hand is slowly playing out.
Short-term oscillation and shakeout are inevitable, but I am already closely watching the long-term script 😏
#Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK On August 31, 2026, at 1:11 PM Eastern Time, MT Newswires cited Bloomberg reporting that Phil Schiller, a senior Apple AAPL executive, stepped down from his roles as head of the App Store and Apple product launches.
Phil Schiller is a veteran figure at Apple. Although he relinquished core business management responsibilities, he retains the title of Apple Fellow and participates in certain special company projects. The App Store business will be integrated into the services division led by Eddy Cue, and the product launch events will be handled by a new team. This personnel change coincides with Apple's upcoming CEO transition and represents an important part of the management's generational shift. Market focus is on whether the App Store, as the core cash flow source of Apple's services segment, will see changes in commission policies or developer ecosystem strategies under new management, which may cause short-term emotional volatility in the stock price.
A similar management transition is also happening at $KO Coca-Cola. After the new leader took office, market growth expectations for the company rose, driving the stock price to continuously strengthen and repeatedly hit new highs. However, despite the stock price rally fueled by the new management narrative, there remains significant divergence among institutions. On one side, optimism about the new CEO's cost-cutting, efficiency improvements, and expansion of the sugar-free business; on the other, caution that valuations have already priced in the positives, combined with external policy risks such as Mexico's sugar tax, creating pressure for phased profit-taking at high levels. Following the whales' perspective, both bulls and bears are making big moves today. Putting profit and loss aside for now, let's break down the real intentions of current funds and the uncertainties in September. As for ETH's short-term trend, I'm cautious now. If it can't break through the 2500 level, there's still a pullback. Looking at on-chain data, the bulls are showing strong momentum. Bitmine Immersion Technologies has been buying ETH for 65 consecutive weeks, adding 53,501 coins last week, bringing its total holdings to 5.901 million, about 4.9% of Ethereum's total supply—just one step away from their 5% target. Chairman Tom Lee previously made it clear that "Ethereum doesn't need to be sold," meaning they really need to be long-term shareholders. Besides Bitmine, two other whales are also making high-profile purchases, spending a total of $140 million. One whale swept up 13,078 ETH in just half an hour today, with a trading volume of $32.66 million. But the bears are not weak either. In the past 24 hours, an unknown whale transferred 43,880 ETH (about $108 million) from cold wallets to five exchanges: Binance, OKX, Bybit, Kraken, and Gate. Such large-scale transfers to exchanges are usually a sign of a sell-off. Another early whale also deposited the last 26,000 ETH into Bitstamp. He bought it for $517 back then and now has a net profit of $274 million. After holding for so many years, he is finally ready to liquidate. $ETH todayG20 Finance Ministers Meeting Sends Signal: A Global Investment Wave Is Rising
"If I were to summarize the current situation, it is a surge in global investment." Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh made this statement in his opening remarks at the G20 Finance Ministers meeting held in Asheville, North Carolina. He also mentioned that the keywords repeatedly discussed in previous G20 meetings were more about "long-term stagnation" and "global savings glut," which sharply contrast with the current market environment.
The era has shifted; the previous scenario of global capital having nowhere to invest and an excess of savings is changing, and capital is actively seeking opportunities in various risk assets. The massive capital influx will, on one hand, boost equities, crypto, and commodities markets, but on the other hand, overheating may also create asset bubbles, and the risk of subsequent policy adjustments should not be overlooked.
However, a surge in investment does not equal a one-sided bull market. After collective capital entry, divergences and realizations will follow. This logic is similar to the trading of the U.S. stock $KO Coca-Cola. Coca-Cola's performance exceeded expectations, with strong growth in the sugar-free segment attracting substantial capital deployment, but there is significant divergence in high-level institutional target prices, with some capital choosing to take profits at highs. Even with solid fundamentals, when overall market investment enthusiasm is high, one must be cautious of volatility caused by capital outflows.
Reflecting on the crypto market, the current Fear and Greed Index has reached 74 in the greed zone, perfectly matching the global investment recovery environment. Incremental capital inflows push up coin prices, and FOMO sentiment rises, but the more frenzied the capital deployment, the more one must guard against subsequent policy shifts.🚨Greed index surges to 74, will September bring a market harvest?
Market sentiment is rapidly fermenting and heating up. In just two weeks, the crypto fear and greed index has jumped directly from 27 in the extreme fear zone to 74 in the greed zone. Along with a strong rebound in August's market, $BTC and major altcoins have collectively warmed up, and FOMO chasing has once again spread across the market, but risks are quietly accumulating.
Historically, September has been one of the weaker months for Bitcoin. Many institutions have already issued warnings: behind the heated sentiment, beware of concentrated profit-taking, combined with short-term correction pressure from macro data and market liquidity changes. The real risk now is not a direct sharp drop in prices, but the market collectively forming a unanimous bullish consensus, with everyone assuming the market will continue to rise.
With a greed index of 74, a significant rally in August, and the seasonal September correction window approaching, multiple factors overlap, and the cost-effectiveness of high-leverage speculation at the top has greatly diminished. The market will not continue to bull run following the majority's expectations; collective greed is often a precursor to risk.
This market pattern also applies to the US stock $KO Coca-Cola. The Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, with impressive growth in the sugar-free segment, yet institutional views have seriously diverged. Even with solid fundamentals, when market sentiment is high, capital will still choose to take profits in batches rather than endlessly pushing prices up based solely on positive news. Whether in crypto or stock markets, overheated sentiment itself is an important risk signal. The upcoming non-farm payroll data this week: Will there be a rate hike in September?
#Employment data is being released intensively, and the Wash policy stance is under scrutiny
After the hawkish speech at Jackson Hole by Wash, the probability of a rate hike in September surged directly to 57%, gold dropped accordingly, and $BTC briefly fell below the 77,000 mark. This week's non-farm payroll data is the key judge to decide whether the Federal Reserve will take action in September.
The market currently expects August non-farm payrolls to increase by 55,000 to 80,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Looking back at July's non-farm payrolls, employment unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the data for May and June was cumulatively revised down by 103,000, signaling a cooling in employment already reflected in the data.
Two scenarios are considered:
① Non-farm payrolls exceed expectations strongly: rate hike expectations continue to rise, US Treasury yields increase, risk assets come under pressure, BTC is very likely to test the 76,000 area, and high-beta coins like ETH and SOL will see further amplified declines, with flash liquidations becoming common.
② Non-farm payrolls are weak again and below expectations: employment weakness is confirmed, September rate hike expectations quickly fall, after the negative news is fully priced in, BTC is expected to rebound and challenge the 78,000-79,000 range, driving a market recovery.
My personal judgment is that this non-farm payroll data is very unlikely to look good. The previous continuous downward revisions have already indicated that employment was previously overestimated. If August continues to weaken, it will directly dispel the confidence for tapering and rate hikes, bringing a recovery window for the crypto market.
$BTC $ETH The 10-year US Treasury yield is reported at 4.760%, hitting a one-year high. But the shape of the curve is more informative than this number.
Since the beginning of the year, the 13-week yield has dropped by 29 basis points instead of rising, the 5-year yield has increased by 76 basis points, the 10-year by 48, and the 30-year by only 28. The biggest increase is in the mid-section, not the long end or the short end. If the market were worried about long-term inflation, the 30-year would lead the rise; if worried about immediate rate hikes, the short end would lead. Neither is the case.
This curve says: rate cuts are indeed happening, but the market does not believe they will continue all the way down. What is being cut is the path of rate cuts, not the level of rates.
Supply is squeezed at both ends: corporate bond issuance this year is nearly $1.7 trillion, 27% more than last year, with a significant portion financing AI projects; meanwhile, federal public debt held approaches $40 trillion, and this fiscal year's deficit is about 5.8% of GDP, far above the fifty-year average of 3.8%.
Gold only rose 0.10%, the VIX is just 15.15, this is not panic but a revaluation. $BTC is reported at 78,719, up 1.14% against the trend, driven by liquidity rather than risk aversion. As rate-hike expectations rise, Bitcoin takes the first hit. ⚠️
$BTC's recent high has been wiped out, falling sharply from $81K to around $77K.
But this still isn't a “buy with your eyes closed” zone.
Why?
1️⃣ ETF flows have turned negative. After strong inflows, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded about $201.8M in net outflows on Aug. 28, signaling that institutional demand may be cooling.
This looks less like a simple technical correction and more like macro pressure hitting risk assets first. Macroeconomic Data Observation | U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Continues to Decline, Energy Risks Persistently Accumulate
According to the latest EIA data, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by 3.1 million barrels last week, with total inventory dropping to 286.6 million barrels, remaining at historic lows not seen in decades. The ongoing release of reserves temporarily supplements crude oil supply to the market, exerting short-term pressure on oil prices, but the reserve volume is continuously shrinking, and the available buffer space is contracting.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is originally an emergency reserve to respond to geopolitical supply disruptions, not an unlimited adjustment tool. Based on the current consumption rate, the legal threshold for routine reserve releases is approaching. Once this threshold is breached, any further release of reserves will require emergency congressional approval, significantly increasing the difficulty of market intervention. Short-term reserve releases can cool down oil prices but cannot resolve the supply conflicts caused by Middle East geopolitical tensions; it is a temporary fix rather than a fundamental solution. If geopolitical tensions escalate again in the future, the U.S. will have fewer buffer resources, further amplifying oil price volatility risks.
This set of strategic logic is very similar to the U.S. stock $KO Coca-Cola. Coca-Cola has solid fundamentals, with its sugar-free business and pricing power as core advantages, yet institutional disagreements persist in the market. Positive factors cannot overshadow potential risks, with the medium- to long-term risk of Mexico’s sugar tax always looming. The same applies to the crude oil market: short-term policy interventions can smooth volatility, but underlying geopolitical risks will not disappear, and the market will eventually reprice the latent risks.As interest rate hike expectations rise, Bitcoin takes the first hit!
$BTC's previous high has been smashed! It dropped quickly from 81,000 to 77,000, but it's not yet in a range where you can buy with your eyes closed. Why:
1. ETF funds reversed for the first time. The record of a net inflow of $2.6 billion on the 9th was broken on 8/28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.8M. This is the real driver of today's drop, not a technical correction#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation Microsoft announced the expansion of its strategic cooperation with Humain, an AI company under Saudi PIF. The two parties plan to launch Humain One, deeply integrating the full Microsoft 365 office ecosystem to create an AI productivity suite for enterprises, serving the Middle East and Africa markets, with an initial target of covering one million enterprise users. Humain One is an enterprise-level AI intelligent platform running on Azure cloud, capable of connecting various internal business systems and workflows. Paired with Microsoft 365 Copilot, it embeds AI capabilities into daily office scenarios such as documents, emails, and meetings. Future expansions will include business modules like finance, human resources, and procurement. Humain's self-developed ALLAM Arabic large language model will also be integrated into the Microsoft AI ecosystem to address the shortfall in AI deployment for less common languages in enterprises. In the capital markets, major cooperation news can easily drive sentiment but does not necessarily mean a one-sided rise. Like $KO Coca-Cola, even with solid fundamentals and the short-term negative impact of Mexico's sugar tax digested, institutional investors still show significant divergence, and high-level funds will cash out in batches rather than relying solely on positive news to continuously push up valuations. The same logic applies to tech stocks. This cooperation represents regional market commercialization and is positive for Microsoft's AI business expansion, but it should be viewed objectively. The project mainly targets the Middle East market, so its short-term contribution to overall performance is limited. The market will price in the positive news in advance, and after the news is realized, it is more likely to enter a phase of volatile digestion.On September 1, 2026, global risk assets are overall in a critical window of macro expectation repricing. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and the US stock market are all highly influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations, US Treasury yields, and geopolitical situations, showing significant inter-asset linkage effects. Market divergence between bulls and bears has widened, with signs of increased volatility. In the evening Beijing time, European and American funds concentrate their entry; the crypto market trades continuously all day, the US stock market officially opens, and derivatives undergo concentrated clearing, often causing rapid intraday fluctuations and spike movements. Technical support levels are easily broken by news, and short-term uncertainty rises significantly.
Bitcoin (BTC) maintained a high-level range-bound oscillation on September 1. After previously testing resistance at $81,000–$82,000, bullish momentum weakened without a successful breakout. The intraday range mainly fluctuated between $77,200 and $79,200. August saw a significant upward trend overall, but September has entered a phase of digesting positive news. From a capital perspective, the US spot Bitcoin ETF still maintains a phase of net inflows; institutional allocation demand has not disappeared but the inflow pace has clearly slowed, shifting from sustained large purchases to intermittent inflows and outflows. Incremental buying is insufficient, lacking enough momentum to push prices to challenge previous highs again. On-chain data shows whale holdings remain relatively stable without large-scale concentrated sell-offs, but ordinary retail investors are taking profits at high levels, reducing market consensus on buying. Derivatives markets for futures and options open interest remain high, with many buy and sell orders placed at key price points. Once prices approach these critical levels in the evening, chain liquidations are easily triggered, further amplifying intraday price swings.
The macro environment is the core variable restricting Bitcoin's current trend. After the Jackson Hole meeting released a hawkish tone, the market raised the probability of a September rate hike, pushing 10-year US Treasury yields higher and pressuring risk-free assets, directly suppressing Bitcoin valuations. Escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts have driven up international oil prices, further fueling inflation concerns and indirectly reinforcing the Fed's logic to maintain high interest rates. If US Treasury yields continue rising and the dollar strengthens in the evening, Bitcoin will likely face pressure and test lower support; if yields retreat temporarily and risk sentiment recovers, Bitcoin may have a chance to retest resistance. The crypto market has no price limits; daily fluctuations of thousands of dollars are normal. Regulatory rumors, official statements, and sudden geopolitical news can instantly reverse market direction, making pure technical analysis less effective.
Ethereum (ETH) is a typical high-beta coin, with price movements closely following Bitcoin but generally exhibiting greater volatility. On September 1, the intraday range was roughly $2,410–$2,530. When the market strengthens, Ethereum tends to outperform Bitcoin; when risk aversion rises, its pullbacks are deeper. Besides Bitcoin's systemic influence, Ethereum is also affected by its own spot ETF fund flows, on-chain DeFi activity, sector rotation, and staking unlocks. The current ETH/BTC ratio remains low, reflecting market preference for Bitcoin allocation; Ethereum has yet to develop an independent trend. Although Ethereum's spot ETF has seen several days of net inflows, its overall scale and sustainability lag significantly behind Bitcoin's ETF, making it difficult to drive an independent upward trend on its own. Institutional support is weaker than Bitcoin's; during risk-off phases, funds exit Ethereum faster, showing weaker resilience. If Bitcoin holds its range in the evening, Ethereum will follow with sideways movement; if Bitcoin breaks key support effectively, Ethereum will experience a deeper correction.
US stock market sentiment before the September 1 open was cautious, with the three major indices diverging. The Nasdaq, weighed down by high-valuation tech stocks, showed greater volatility, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 were relatively more resilient. Historically, September is a traditionally weak month for US stocks, with institutions rebalancing portfolios quarterly and the market repricing the Fed's rate path, accumulating short-term correction risks. Rising Treasury yields directly suppress high-valuation growth sectors like AI and semiconductors, which are concentrated in the Nasdaq. After the US market opens in the evening, inflation expectations, geopolitical situations, and oil price fluctuations will continue to disturb the market. The correlation between US stocks and crypto assets remains high, sharing the same global risk appetite: when US tech stocks collectively strengthen and risk appetite rises, it indirectly benefits Bitcoin and Ethereum; when US stocks experience collective sell-offs, high-risk assets are uniformly reduced, and cryptocurrencies face pressure simultaneously. There is also a capital siphoning effect: when US stocks generate strong profits, some speculative funds flow back from crypto to stocks; conversely, risk-off funds withdraw from both markets simultaneously.
Summarizing the market logic for September 1, the core contradictions among the three major assets focus on Federal Reserve policy expectations, US Treasury yields, and Middle East geopolitical risks. Under the baseline scenario, the market will likely continue range-bound trading in the evening; a strong directional move requires new major data or unexpected events as catalysts. Derivative leverage has not fully cleared, and market sentiment is very sensitive. False breakouts and rapid spikes will frequently occur, making technical support and resistance unreliable.
It must be emphasized again that virtual currency trading and speculation are illegal financial activities in China. Overseas trading platforms are not regulated domestically and carry risks such as platform exit scams, fund theft, and price manipulation. Losses cannot be legally recovered. Overseas US stock trading also faces multiple risks including exchange rate fluctuations, foreign policies, and trading time differences. Ordinary participants are easily tempted by large evening volatility; using leverage can cause huge principal losses in a short time. It is recommended to avoid such high-risk speculation and prioritize domestic compliant financial channels.$BTC $ETH
Just saw some interesting options data: BTC call options with strike prices between $80K and $100K have open interest nominal values piling up to tens of billions of dollars.
This of course doesn't mean BTC will definitely hit 100K, but at least it shows that capital has started to bet ahead on Q4.
What’s even more noteworthy is the US debt risk. Fiscal deficits, debt, and yield pressures persist, and BTC is increasingly being used by funds as a hedge asset against "dollar depreciation/US debt risk." ETF inflows remain strong recently.
ETH is also holding strong. Recently, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen consecutive days of net inflows, with institutional capital clearly increasing allocations to ETH.
So my view remains bullish:
September may not directly hit 100K, but I lean toward the real big move happening in the latter half of Q4.
In the short term, focus on non-farm payrolls and macro data; don’t let one or two candlesticks disrupt your rhythm.
As for whether BTC can hit 100K?
I still dare to bet on it. 🔥The biggest misunderstanding in Web3 history — MicroStrategy "buying high and selling low"?
MicroStrategy is not a reason for "selling low," as thoroughly analyzed in the previous article. This one talks about how MicroStrategy does not "buy high."
You have to know, MicroStrategy is not using deposits to buy BTC; it issues $MSTR to finance buying BTC.
When BTC is expensive, MSTR is also expensive. The higher the BTC price, the higher the MSTR premium, so issuing MSTR to buy BTC is actually more cost-effective!
At a low point, issuing 10,000 MSTR can only buy 14 BTC. At a high point, issuing 10,000 MSTR can buy 40 to 60 BTC.
Obviously, issuing MSTR to buy BTC at a high point is more cost-effective.
No wonder Saylor is a genius; SBF might never catch up in this lifetime. What MicroStrategy really wants is not just on-paper profit.
◆ For the corporate entity: Because MicroStrategy does not sell BTC at high prices, there is no distributable profit, so no traditional corporate income tax is due.
◆ For preferred shareholders: Preferred shareholders like $STRC also do not have to pay dividend withholding tax.
◆ For common shareholders: Although the company has no distributable profit and MSTR shareholders receive no dividends, they can still make money as BTC rises.
The result is a win-win-win! The only loser might be the U.S. Treasury, which collects less tax. $BTC brothers, plans have changed! Get ready for the battle to seize the 85,000 high ground!
Let's start with the big picture conclusion.
The probability of Bitcoin breaking through 85,000 this month is still very high.
Currently, Bitcoin's trend is clear.
But it should be noted that a clear rise does not mean the process will be smooth.
The trend to break through 85,000 remains unchanged, but now it is still below 79,000. The biggest test is whether you can withstand the mentality of a drop to 70,000.
Today is a critical moment for Bitcoin's August closing.
There is a story that I don't know if everyone has heard.
In the financial circles of Europe and America, from July to the end of August, for more than a month, many fund managers, main traders, and market makers at large institutions take paid vacations to enjoy a wonderful holiday.
Therefore, liquidity in the crypto market during July and August is relatively poor.
Now back to the main point.
In September, as they gradually return to their posts, everyone needs to pay attention because the main players are very likely to reallocate their positions.
Many mainstream institutions missed the previous 64,000 to 81,500 rally, so it is not ruled out that some main players want to get on board but are unwilling to do so at this price, so there may be short-term bearish moves.
Based on multiple trading indicators, I have analyzed in detail.
In the short term, Bitcoin's first resistance level is between 79,400 and 80,200, the second resistance level is 81,888. The ultimate target is 85,000.
Above 85,000 is a vacuum zone.
If it can break through, then 100,000 is the next target.
But I can be sure that this process will most likely not come that quickly.
Because Bitcoin has risen nearly 30% in the past, but so far there has not been a deep pullback.
This is one of the reasons I remain cautious about the bullish trend.
Logically,
The high-leverage positions below have not been liquidated, yet it has risen nearly 30% in a few days, resulting in many high-leverage positions having considerable floating profits.
If it continues to rise now, the floating profits will increase, which means the probability of them taking profits will also increase.
If the main players want to continue pushing higher, they have to absorb the chips thrown back by their profit-taking.
For the main bullish players, they are not allies with other bulls but competitors, because the main players are more nervous than anyone else, fearing others will sell before them.
Therefore, I believe that if there is an intention to break through 85,000 or even higher, a deep shakeout must occur. That would also conveniently allow traders who just returned from vacation to get on board, giving Bitcoin a better chance to push the price higher.
The above is my personal opinion and not investment advice. $500 million has quietly flowed into Bitcoin and Ethereum recently
But what exactly are their real bets? It's worth observing
MicroStrategy purchased 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million, bringing its holdings to 845,050 BTC
BitMine increased its reserve by about $131 million with 53,501 ETH, reaching 5.9 million ETH, approximately 4.9% of the total supply
Total: $500 million
MicroStrategy added 4,603 BTC
BitMine added 53,501 ETH
So why are they still buying?
MicroStrategy views Bitcoin as a scarce reserve asset not controlled by any nation
Its model uses public market financing to accumulate more BTC, increasing the long-term Bitcoin exposure per share
BitMine has adopted a similar capital market strategy for Ethereum
But ETH offers an additional layer: staking yields and exposure to stablecoins, tokenization, DeFi, and on-chain settlement
The distinction between the two is important:
MicroStrategy mainly bets on digital scarcity
BitMine bets on a productive blockchain economy
These purchases reinforce institutional demand for BTC and ETH but do not guarantee immediate price increases
The real test is whether each company can increase the cryptocurrency value per share without incurring unsustainable dilution or financing costs
#BitMine增持至581.5万枚ETH，质押率约87% $BTC $ETH
Behind the sideways movement of Bitcoin and Ethereum, on-chain data reveals these three signals
Beyond price, on-chain data often exposes the true intentions of capital ahead of time. Today, let's look at Bitcoin and Ethereum from two dimensions: liquidation distribution and stablecoin supply.
First, the current prices: Bitcoin at $78,637, down 0.81% in 24 hours; Ethereum at $2,469, down 2.21% in 24 hours. Both are oscillating within ranges on the charts, seemingly calm, but the on-chain activity is far from quiet.
The first signal comes from Bitcoin's liquidation distribution. In the past 3 days, in the dense liquidation zones of contracts, there are liquidation orders piled up at $76,897 and $76,447 below, totaling $29.1 billion and $15.6 billion respectively, and at $79,209 and $80,364 above, there are hedging positions of $21.8 billion and $20.7 billion. The current price of $78,600 is right in the middle, with risks on both sides—falling to $76,000 would trigger a chain of long liquidations, while rising to $80,000 would face short sellers' counterattack. In the short term, a tug-of-war is highly likely, and the direction will become clear once one side breaks through.
The second signal comes from stablecoins. The total circulating supply of USDT is about $183.45 billion, with Tron holding $91.9 billion and Ethereum $73.6 billion as the main forces. August overall saw net redemptions, but on August 30 alone, there was a net issuance of $115 million, with $150 million newly minted and $35.11 million redeemed. This marginal change is noteworthy: a reissuance at the end of the month usually means funds are preparing to re-enter the market, an early sign of liquidity warming up. Brothers, let's talk about a real case today. There's a retail trader in Canada named Akshay Sapra who made over 1.7 million CAD last year to this year by trading AMD and Nvidia. Sounds great, right? But the plot twists quickly—he then heavily bet on $SPCX, buying thousands of call options and stocks, but the stock price dropped from 158.92 to 149.47, resulting in a loss of 200,000 CAD. What's even more extreme is that he wasn't satisfied and bought 2,200 put options to try to turn things around, but ended up losing a big chunk again, with total losses exceeding 350,000 CAD in one week...
This guy isn't new to getting carried away; he previously lost nearly 200,000 CAD betting on Beyond Meat and even underwent three weeks of gambling addiction treatment. He himself said that trading "easily slips into gambling"—he's not exaggerating at all.
Here are my thoughts:
Actually, his previous success was largely due to catching the big trend with AMD and Nvidia, a one-sided upward market where holding on could make money. But SpaceX was just added to the Nasdaq 100, the options market lacks liquidity, there's no historical data, and pricing is all based on sentiment—doesn't this amount to gambling on ups and downs? More importantly, after losing, he immediately reversed his position, which is classic revenge trading; once emotions take over, the win rate drops to zero.
He clearly realized the problem and even publicly recorded his trades to restrain himself, but still couldn't stop. Is this really trading addiction, or does he truly believe he can defy the odds and change his fate?Weekend candlesticks never lie; they only act when you're most lax. Have you noticed that every time the market starts early Saturday morning, it's no coincidence? BTC rebounded to 79,000, ETH hit 2,527, and SOL quietly climbed back to 106. On the surface, it looks like a rebound, but weekend markets are completely different from weekdays—the depth is as thin as paper, orders are so sparse you can hear echoes. Big money loves to act at times like this—pulling or dropping a needle, the cost is so low it's negligible, but the effect is enough to keep you awake. I stared at the derivatives data for a while, and there's a rather interesting detail. At the 79,000 level, BTC's funding rate volatility has clearly narrowed, indicating leveraged funds are hesitating, and no one dares to heavily bet on the direction at this level. In this state, the rebound seems more driven by short covering rather than new bullish conviction. - For BTC to truly break through 80,000, weekend liquidity simply can't hold up; any rise without trading volume is just a bluff. - ETH rarely followed the rally, but whether it can turn from catch-up to leading the rally depends on whether it can hold at 2,550; if it can't, it'll be another bullish inducement. - SOL's 105 to 107 levels were the previous dense trading zone. Charles Schwab's news did give confidence, but after the positive news landed, without sustained buying, it was just a pulse rally. The market is currently in a very delicate phase of strategic maneuvering. They say it's chasing the rally, but if you do, you'll get stuck in it; They say it's a shakeout, but the drop doesn't trigger panic selling. DeductionThis time Saylor is not just hyping; he's really back.
Yesterday he posted:
“We’re ₿ack.”
Many were still guessing if he was going to buy BTC again, but today Strategy directly announced:
4,603 BTC, $369.7 million, average $80,318.
And this is their first re-accumulation after a two-month pause. Now Strategy holds 845,050 BTC.
What I think is most noteworthy here is not how big this $369.7 million is.
It's the entry point.
BTC is currently around $78,000, but Strategy’s average cost this time is actually above $80,000.
In other words:
Institutions didn’t wait for BTC to drop to 70K to buy; they started betting again around 80K.
This is actually a very direct signal for market sentiment.
Of course, Strategy buying BTC ≠ BTC will immediately surge.
But after the market just experienced a hawkish wash and BTC still can’t break above $80,000, the biggest change is:
Sellers are waiting on macro conditions, but buyers have started to act again.
So the $80,000 level is what I’m most focused on next.
Once BTC decisively holds this level with volume,
Saylor’s $369.7 million today might just be the first match to reignite market sentiment.
Short-term may fluctuate, but I remain bullish on BTC mid-term.
$BTC U.S. military actions against Iran typically have a short-term negative impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum through macro transmission mechanisms, but their long-term safe-haven properties are questionable.
Short-term price pressure, data points to a decline
After the U.S. airstrike on August 31, 2026, $BTC briefly fell below $77,000, and $ETH dropped below $2,400. Bitcoin declined within about an hour, causing over $200 million in long leveraged positions to be liquidated.
Macro transmission rather than simple safe-haven; the decline in crypto assets is not a straightforward "conflict-triggered flight to safety." The key transmission chain is:
Military conflict → Rising crude oil supply risk (the Strait of Hormuz accounts for 29% of global seaborne oil trade) → Sharp rise in oil prices (Brent crude briefly surpassed $90) → Inflation expectations heat up → Fed rate hike expectations strengthen (September hike probability jumped to 56.9%) → Stronger dollar, global risk appetite declines (Risk-Off) → Pressure on risk assets like $BTC and $ETH.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Gold has fallen more than 4% in three days, briefly breaking below $4,400 and touching around $4,396, while the US 10-year Treasury yield surged toward 4.75%. At first glance, the story is simple: a more hawkish Fed stance is pushing rate expectations higher, strengthening yields and putting pressure on gold. But there’s another side to the trade. The Treasury appears focused on managing funding conditions and keeping yields contained, while the Fed remains focused on controlling inflation. If tWriting recently disclosed some interesting data from Cailian Press. 👀 In the BTC options market, call options with strike prices between $80,000 and $100,000 have nominal open interest worth billions of dollars. This doesn't mean BTC will definitely rise to $100,000, but at least it shows that some funds in the market have already started betting on the Q4 rally in advance. ETH is also worth watching. $ETH What really matters is the macro logic behind it—U.S. Treasury risks are continuously rising. With fiscal deficits, debt scale, and yield pressures continuously rising, some funds have started to view BTC as an asset to hedge traditional financial risks. What's even more noteworthy is that just now there was a long ETH position with about $100 million in scale and 10x leverage, with a liquidation price around $2,241. This scale hardly resembles the position of an ordinary retail investor. Moreover, recently, spot ETH ETF funds have still outperformed BTC ETFs, and institutional interest in Ethereum is increasing. So my view remains biased. But I don't believe BTC will surge straight to $100,000 in September. In the short term, the focus is still on nonfarm payrolls and macro liquidity changes. For real big market moves, I actually prefer to appear in the latter half of Q4. BTC pushing for $100,000—this bet—I still dare to bet 🚀 $BTC $ETH$ETH's biggest advantage now
is that money from $BTC is really starting to flow in
BTC recently fell back below $80,000, but ETH's capital performance is clearly stronger.
In the past week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $924 million, while the ETH ETF attracted about $824 million in the same period. Considering ETH's market cap is much smaller than BTC's, this scale of capital is actually very impressive.
Moreover, the ETH ETF has had net inflows for 10 consecutive trading days. On the same day BTC experienced a single-day net outflow of $202 million, ETH still had a net inflow of about $102 million.
This is why I am paying more and more attention to ETH now.
The capital hasn't completely left the crypto market; it's being redistributed between BTC and ETH.
What ETH really needs to overcome now is $2,500.
As long as it firmly holds this level, I think the next phase can seriously target $2,800 to $3,000. #StarkWare executes the first quantum-secure transaction on the BTC mainnet
$HUMA
Today's event actually triggered a quite interesting initial market reaction. Saylor released a Credit model based on BTC with an annualized 10% rate and 40% volatility, pegging the price at $77,558. This figure itself isn't new, but bringing it up for repricing during a liquidity tightening cycle adds some significance. Since the last purchase of 520 $BTC by $MSTR at an average price of about $67,068 between June 15 and 21, after more than two months, MSTR has bought Bitcoin again, this time purchasing 4,603 coins at an average price of $80,318, with a total value of $369.7 million.
During these two-plus months, MSTR sold a total of 6,948 BTC, receiving approximately $430 million, with an average price around $62,000. From a mathematical perspective, this does seem a bit like a "losing trade," but given the circumstances at the time, selling BTC to repurchase preferred stock was the right move.
In the past week, Strategy sold 4,531,421 shares of MSTR common stock on the market through ATM, generating $602.8 million in revenue. Besides using $369.7 million to buy Bitcoin, it also used $151.8 million to repurchase $STRC, paid $50.7 million in STRC dividends, and increased cash reserves by $30 million.
Currently, MSTR still has a remaining issuance capacity of $19.0908 billion under the ATM.Solana has just completed the first legally binding on-chain governance vote in history, with the SGP-0002 proposal narrowly passing with 67% support. Voting data: 176.29 million SOL voted in favor, 66.19 million against, and 20.63 million abstained, meaning the outcome was decided by a very narrow margin. What exactly did this proposal change? Simply put: it doubled the annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%. The long-term final inflation target remains unchanged at 1.5%, but the time to reach this target is shortened from 5.7 years to 2.8 years. Over the next 6 years, approximately 18.9 million fewer SOL will be minted in the market. ✅ Benefits: Less new coin issuance, slower token supply growth, the dilution speed of your holdings by new tokens slows down, strengthening the deflation narrative. ⚠️ Cost: Staking rewards shrink accordingly. Validators and regular stakers will receive fewer new SOL tokens. This is a trade-off: either slow down token dilution or maintain higher staking yields; you can't have both. An interesting behind-the-scenes twist in this vote: In the last few hours before the vote ended, the Helius CEO made as many as 500 calls to persuade Kraken to change its voting stance. This operation was crucial in the proposal's narrow passage. Outlook: Tokenomics has officially taken a big step toward tightening, and the supply logic has changed. However, a key variable to watch continuously is whether network fee revenue can make up for the reduction in staking rewards.Once the US and Iran start fighting, the ones who end up taking the hit first are still our wallets
In the past two days, gold and Bitcoin have both pulled back, which isn't too surprising. The escalation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices up, reigniting the market's risk aversion
But I think it’s too simplistic to say "war causes BTC to drop"
Gold and Bitcoin had already risen quite a bit before, so a wave of profit-taking now is normal. Plus, the Fed’s recent hawkish stance has changed market expectations for rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and US Treasury yields, which puts pressure on risk assets
There are also some changes in capital flows. Bitcoin ETFs had seen continuous inflows for days but recently have experienced outflows
So the current market is really a tug-of-war among several forces
War pushes up risk aversion, rising oil prices bring inflation pressure, and the Fed’s hawkishness suppresses risk assets
I’m more inclined to view this pullback as a normal digestion after a rise. The more chaotic the market, the less you should rush to chase gains or cut losses. What really matters now is whether capital can come back after this adjustment
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Oil prices have climbed back above $90, is $BTC in danger again?
#US-Iran military confrontation escalates, crude oil supply risks heat up
The US and Iran are at it again. The US attacked Iranian launch facilities near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran retaliated, pushing Brent crude back up to $90.
Running away at the news of war is only half right.
The real trouble is that the Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's oil flow. Navigation hasn't fully recovered yet, and with attacks, rising insurance fees, and transportation costs, oil prices can easily factor in the worst-case scenario first.
If oil just touches $90, it’s likely just an emotional shock; but if it stays above $90, the impact will slowly spread to transportation, manufacturing, and consumption, raising the possibility of inflation picking up again.
Gold can serve as a safe haven, but BTC may not in the short term. Once the market worries about interest rate hikes again, high-volatility assets usually get hit first.
These days, don’t just watch the war situation; watching oil prices and strait navigation is more useful. If both worsen together, be cautious about $BTC’s rebound.
To put it plainly, missiles are scary, but the continuously rising oil prices are what really hurt your portfolio.Leverage itself is innocent; the real danger lies in using it when the system is incomplete. The crypto space has a high fatality rate with leverage, but the fault lies not in the tool, but in the lack of framework.
In my system, leverage and spot trading are essentially the same, analogous to a mortgage—using low-cost loans at low prices to lock in quality assets naturally amplifies returns.
I only use one type of leverage: at bottom zones, low multiples, loan-based, and unidirectional long positions. I avoid contracts and short-term speculation.
The logic is divided into three steps:
First, set the target. If I believe the ETH to BTC exchange rate will strengthen over the next few years, I heavily invest in ETH rather than splitting evenly; I only switch when E/B is at an extreme.
Second, observe monthly price movement rhythms rather than bull or bear markets. A ten-year heatmap shows there are rising and falling months each year; I hold cash during down months and hold coins during up months.
Third, only use leverage in historically undervalued zones. First, fully invest in spot; if the market continues to break down, I pledge BTC to borrow USD and buy more BTC without panic.
Leverage is a cognition amplifier; proper understanding is a step, absence of understanding is a cliff.
#CryptoInvestmentInsights #LeverageTrading #CognitionMonetization #ETH/BTCExchangeRate #BottomStrategy
$BTC $ETH $SOL Recently, the correlation between $BTC and gold has become increasingly apparent.
A few months ago, the two often moved independently, but since August, with the weakening of the US dollar and the expansion of US long-term Treasury repos, funds have started flowing simultaneously into BTC and gold again. BTC once broke through $80,000, and gold surged to around $4,700, but gold fell back to $4,300, while Bitcoin quickly recovered after a pullback.
Even more strikingly, in the last 5 trading days, Bitcoin ETFs reportedly attracted about $7 billion in total.
I think this market rally is no longer just a simple rebound in risk appetite.
The market is re-trading a very old logic: money is increasing, but the supply of BTC and gold cannot keep up.
So, in the short term, both sides will of course fluctuate, but as long as the issues with US dollar credit and US debt remain, I believe the main theme of BTC and gold is far from over.
$XAU #BTC high-level tug-of-war, gold correlation strengthens $ETH is starting to take over now
I don't think this round will only see Bitcoin rise
ETH has finally started to show some signs of a bull market recently.
From around $1900 on August 19th, it has surged to about $2500 now, with a short-term increase of over 30%. But what really made me start paying attention to ETH again is the subsequent capital flow.
The US spot ETH ETF has seen net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, accumulating about $1.42 billion in capital inflow, with $226 million flowing in just in the latest trading day, nearly catching up to the $242 million inflow of the BTC ETF on the same day.
This indicates that market funds are no longer satisfied with buying only BTC.
BTC is responsible for lifting the entire market, and once it stabilizes around $80,000, funds will start looking for the second largest market cap asset.
ETH is often the most worth-watching indicator before the altcoin market truly kicks off.
If ETH can firmly hold above $2500 next, I will continue to watch it challenge $3000.
$ETH #BTC pullback after rally, options expiration amplifies the key level battle Anthropic's massive IPO is coming, but the market simply can't support so many trillion-dollar valuations — though it does give us an opportunity to short and profit!
The fundraising scale is benchmarked against SpaceX's $86.2 billion, so market funds being siphoned off is inevitable.
One month before SpaceX went public, 14 companies rushed to list, and after listing, the weighted average loss was 9.5%.
Currently, the weighted average return of US IPOs is only 5.6%, underperforming the S&P 500's 13%.
The core issue is: the market is already saturated with AI concept stocks. How much is the combined market cap of Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon? The AI bubble hasn't burst yet because liquidity is still holding it up.
Another nearly $100 billion IPO will directly drain liquidity, and the market simply can't absorb it.
My judgment: this IPO will most likely follow SpaceX's path, peaking at the opening and then steadily declining. The market capacity doesn't support so many trillion-dollar companies coexisting.
I won't participate in this IPO frenzy; I'll wait for valuations to return to a reasonable range before considering.$KO The impact of Mexico's sugar tax on Coca-Cola's Latin American business is a short-term shock that has been fully absorbed
In 2026, Mexico will significantly upgrade its sugar tax policy, substantially increasing the beverage consumption tax. Not only will the tax rate on sugary drinks surge by 87%, but sugar-free carbonated beverages, which were previously completely exempt, will also be officially included in the tax scope.
Latin America is a core revenue region for Coca-Cola, accounting for 13.6% of total revenue, corresponding to $3.517 billion in revenue in the mid-2026 report. At the initial stage of policy implementation, the market generally worried that profits and sales would suffer a significant impact.
However, based on the latest Q2 financial report and market performance: the short-term shock caused by Mexico's sugar tax has been completely absorbed.
Coca-Cola successfully hedged the negative impact through two core measures:
First, leveraging its strong channel influence, it collaborated with bottlers to implement price increases across all terminals, successfully passing the additional tax burden to the market, offsetting the profit pressure caused by the tax;
Second, accelerating product portfolio upgrades, global sales of sugar-free products rose 13% year-over-year, far exceeding the 2% growth of traditional sugary cola, using the high-growth sugar-free segment to hedge regional policy pressure.
At the same time, the company’s market share in core regions like Brazil and Mexico has not declined but increased. Even though this sugar tax brings about an estimated $500 million potential EBIT pressure, it has been fully absorbed through price adjustments, structural optimization, and market share gains. In Q2, the company still achieved double growth in revenue and net profit and raised its full-year performance guidance. $BTC Bitcoin and gold have a very special relationship: they are not simply "digital gold," but rather a pair of macro assets that sometimes "stick together" and sometimes "go their separate ways.
The specific connections are mainly reflected in these three points:
· Shared philosophy: both are "hard currencies": their core narratives are scarcity, decentralization, and independence from any government credit. Bitcoin's total supply cap of 21 million makes it a "digital gold" against fiat currency depreciation. The Federal Reserve chairman has also referred to it as "digital gold."
· Recent correlation: both driven by "currency depreciation trades": recently, their 90-day correlation exceeded 50% (near zero at the start of the year), while Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq dropped from 60% to 33% over the same period. This is due to U.S. debt surpassing $40 trillion, with investors flocking to both gold and Bitcoin to hedge against dollar depreciation risk.
· Long-term complementarity: a "one rises as the other falls" combination: from 2015 to now, their long-term average correlation is only +0.10 to +0.13, indicating very weak correlation. A Bitwise report found that during market downturns, gold is resilient (e.g., in 2018, stocks fell 19% while gold rose 5.76%), but during recoveries, Bitcoin rebounds more strongly (e.g., after 2020, Bitcoin surged 775%). Combining the two can significantly improve the risk-return profile of an investment portfolio.Recently, there have been new changes in market correlation. Looking at the past 90 days, $BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq tech sector has weakened, while its correlation with gold has gradually increased. In contrast, $ETH still maintains a strong tech risk asset status, and its correlation with the Nasdaq index has not significantly decreased. This change is worth noting. On one hand, some institutions seem to be redefining BTC's role—it is no longer just a highly volatile tech risk asset, but is beginning to be included in a long-term hedging framework for inflation, currency devaluation, and sovereign debt risks. On the other hand, ETH still relies more heavily on market risk appetite. When tech stocks strengthen, capital is more likely to flow into ETH; When growth stocks face selling pressure, ETH is often more directly affected. However, don't assume that just because BTC is increasingly like "digital gold," it can completely break free from macro interest rates. This is precisely the most easily overlooked point right now. Gold is also suppressed when real interest rates and Treasury yields rise rapidly, and BTC is no exception. Therefore, the current market can be viewed in two lines: **Long-term:** The US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and monetary system uncertainty remain important long-term narratives for BTC. **Short-term:** US Treasury yields, dollar liquidity, and Fed policy expectations are the core variables determining BTC's short-term direction. So even though BTC's asset attributes are converging toward gold, short-term trading should not ignore interest rates. Long-term bond viewing