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In the 19th century, American farmer Samuel Benner, after experiencing the financial panic of 1873, began studying commodity prices and business cycles, dividing markets into three stages:
A: A year of panic
B: Booming economy with high prices
C: Difficult period, low-price allocation zone
This chart has been circulated because some years do correspond to historical market nodes, such as the boom and subsequent crash in the late 1920s, the high inflation and commodity peaks around 1980, and the asset price zones before the 2007 financial crisis. According to the projection in the chart, 2023 will favor a low-price distribution zone, while in 2026 it will enter the "Good Times, High Prices" high-price zone. In other words, it now seems more like the latter phase of recovery moving toward prosperity, with market prices, sentiment, and risks likely rising simultaneously. But this doesn't mean the peak will definitely be in 2026, nor is it telling everyone to run away immediately. The real reference value of this chart is to remind us: as the market approaches boom and high price zones, we must start paying more attention to position control, risk management, and staggered profits. Cycles are not prophecies, but they can remind you of roughly where you stand now.
The above content is solely for personal research results and viewpoint sharing. Rational discussion is welcome and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing carries risks; please assess and make decisions prudently.$ROBO /USDT is showing a sharp recovery off its local bottom at 0.01035. On the 4H chart, price has pushed back up above the short-term moving averages, indicating early signs of a bullish push toward resistance levels.
ROBO/USDT Spot Trade Setup
Trade Analysis
* Current Price: 0.01183
* 24h High / Low: 0.01189 / 0.01035
* Key Drivers: Price reclaimed MA5 (0.01140), MA10 (0.01108), and MA20 (0.01119) with noticeable volume coming in after testing the lower support floor.
Trade Setup
* Entry Zone: 0.01110 - 0.01180
* Target 1: 0.01250
* Target 2: 0.01320
* Target 3: 0.01400
* Stop Loss: 0.01020 (Below key support at 0.01035)
> Keep risk managed tight. Look for retests near the moving averages for safer entries or scale in carefully.
> #Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #SpaceX1.6BDeal #Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #SpaceX1.6BDeal 我对比特币未来走向的看法（基于基本面、当前现实和长期逻辑，而非短期价格猜测）：比特币的核心价值主张没有改变：固定总量（2100万枚）、去中心化、抗审查、可验证的数字稀缺性。它更像是“数字黄金 + 全球结算层”，而不是日常支付货币。中本聪2010年那篇关于可扩展性的帖子，已经把方向说得很清楚：底层追求安全与去中心化验证，上层通过轻客户端、支付处理器和Layer 2来解决速度与规模问题。这个设计在今天依然成立。当前现实（2026年7月底）价格大约在6.4万美元附近，距离2025年10月约12.6万美元的历史高点回撤了大约50%。今年以来跌幅明显，主要受宏观因素拖累：美联储相对鹰派（利率高企、可能进一步加息），实际利率上升，打击无收益资产。
现货ETF出现显著净流出（6月创纪录）。
资金轮动到AI等方向，叠加部分企业持仓调整。
但基本面并没有崩溃：长期持有者继续积累，流通供给收紧。
机构与企业采用仍在推进（银行产品、企业财库、国家层面持有）。
Lightning Network持续成熟：公共容量约5000 BTC量级，月支付量已超10亿美元，稳定币（如USDT）开始上线，机构托管与开发者工具（包括面向AI代理的）在改善，节点虽有集中趋势，但符合“专业节点 + 普通轻客户端”的设计预期。
监管在部分地区推进（如美国相关法案讨论、商品属性确认等），虽有波折。
短期波动主要由宏观流动性和情绪主导，而不是比特币本身“坏了”。我对未来走向的判断短期（2026年剩余时间）
高度不确定，取决于美联储路径、ETF资金回流情况和监管进展。可能继续在5万–8万美元区间震荡，若利率预期转向宽松或机构买盘回归，有机会修复；若持续紧缩，也可能进一步下探。不要指望线性上涨。
中期（到2028–2030年下一个减半周期）
更看好结构性上行。减半会进一步压缩新供给，叠加机构、主权与企业需求，网络效应继续强化。Layer 2（Lightning及后续方案）会让实际可用性提升，支付场景更多落地。如果全球债务、通胀或货币不信任问题持续，比特币作为对冲资产的叙事会更强。价格上，许多分析的基础情景指向更高区间，但具体数字没人能准确定，关键是稀缺性 + 采用是否延续。
长期（10年以上）
比特币最可能巩固为全球数字储备资产，类似黄金在数字时代的角色，同时作为底层结算网络。它不会取代所有货币，也不会变成“人人日常刷卡”的工具——那是上层网络的事。成功的关键在于：安全性与去中心化保持足够强（全节点虽少但专业，共识规则难被改）。
采用持续（尤其是无法轻易被单一政府完全封杀的跨境、抗审查需求）。
技术演进跟上（量子计算威胁已有应对讨论，但需社区共识推进）。
主要风险宏观长期紧缩或严重衰退。
监管极端收紧（虽然完全禁绝难度很高）。
技术挑战（量子、扩展性解决方案不及预期）。
竞争或叙事被其他资产分流。
市场自身的高波动与杠杆清算。
总结我的立场：
比特币不是“稳赚不赔的投资”，短期价格谁都猜不准，但长期基本面逻辑（稀缺 + 去中心化信任最小化）依然是加密领域最强的。它更适合作为高风险资产配置的一部分，用长期视角看待，而不是短线炒作。中本聪当年的设计思路——底层重安全、上层重效率——正在被现实验证。未来会继续沿这个方向演进，而不是变成完全人人跑全节点的乌托邦，也不会轻易消失。任何投资都有风险，以上只是基于公开信息和逻辑的判断，不是建议。自己做好研究，控制仓位。 The Federal Reserve also struggles to save the market
Here are two numbers for you. In July this year, the 30-year US Treasury yield soared to 5.06%, a 19-year high, compared to just 2% four years ago. Meanwhile, in the first half of 2026, 372 large US companies went bankrupt, a 16-year high, and 1,663 small businesses closed down, a year-on-year surge of 50%.
This is no coincidence; behind it is the same blade—AI.
Imagine a well called global long-term capital, with only two water carriers in the past: the US government issuing bonds, and traditional companies borrowing money to expand production. The suppliers are tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Apple, which earn hundreds of billions annually and, unable to spend it all, buy Treasuries and financial products, pouring water into the well.
But after 2024, the AI arms race turned the giants from suppliers into extractors. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are expected to spend over 700 billion in capital expenditures this year; cash flow is insufficient, so they must issue debt. In 2026, global AI-related bond issuance reached nearly $570 billion, double last year, with Nvidia also issuing $25 billion. The Bank for International Settlements bluntly states: AI investment is so large that even tech companies can't bear it and must borrow. Tech giants no longer suppress interest rates; instead, they withdraw hundreds of billions, naturally raising borrowing costs.
The US government is also in line, with $39 trillion in debt needing rollover financing, annual interest exceeding $1.2 trillion, and $743 billion auctioned in just one week of July. Massive Treasury issuance combined with AI bonds means long-term interest rates can only rise.
Worse, foreign central banks are also exiting. Japan reduced its US Treasury holdings by $66.8 billion in May, and global central banks are shifting to buying gold. Gold now accounts for 27% of official reserves, surpassing the dollar (22%) for the first time since 1996. France sold 129 tons of gold stored in New York at a high price, exchanged it for an equivalent amount of gold bars shipped back to Paris, earning 12.8 billion, and cleared its custody share.
With rising financing costs, who dies first? Small and medium enterprises. Industry, non-essential consumption, and healthcare see the most bankruptcies; they rely most on financing and are least able to withstand interest rates.
There is also physical pressure: AI competes for electricity and transformers. By 2030, data center electricity consumption will exceed that of all Japan; US data center power demand doubled in two years. Nearly half of projects are delayed due to lack of electricity and transformers; the global transformer shortage is 30%, with orders booked through 2027. Manufacturing faces expensive financing and rising electricity costs, a double blow.
The Federal Reserve is in a dilemma: core PCE is 4.1% annualized; cutting rates risks inflation, raising rates risks defaults. The only path is the old one—tolerate inflation above interest rates, dilute debt through depreciation, and make dollar holders share the burden.
This is why global central banks are frantically buying gold. When AI and Treasuries drain the capital pool, gold is the ultimate currency.
For ordinary people:
1. Avoid US small and medium enterprise debt; more bankruptcies are expected in the second half.
2. Watch closely the 30-year Treasury yield, corporate restructuring waves, AI bond subscription rates, and central bank gold purchase speed.
3. Allocate hard assets and reduce credit IOUs.
AI is not to blame, but some will fall along the way. Understanding the logic helps avoid the wave.
The above is purely personal review and does not constitute investment advice; risks are your own. 📊 On-chain analyst perspective: $XRP Real-time market analysis
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📈 Support and resistance level assessment
$XRP Currently near 1.073, oscillating within a very narrow range of 1.06-1.14. ATR (Daily Average Volatility) is only 0.03, which is a typical volatility contraction—the Bollinger Bands are extremely tight, usually signaling an imminent directional breakout.
Resistance above: The 20 EMA at 1.097 forms the first dynamic resistance; the 50 EMA at 1.132 is a key confirmation level; further resistance is at the 100 EMA (1.217) and 200 EMA (1.414). Prices are trading below all major EMAs, confirming that the broader trend remains bearish.
Lower support: The first line of defense is in the 1.056-1.078 demand zone, where buyers repeatedly intervene; secondary support is at the main demand zone at 1.005; if breached, long-term support is in the 0.84-0.90 area.
The RSI (14) is at 41.83, below the neutral 50 level, indicating that bearish momentum still holds a slight advantage.
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🐋 Market maker movements on the chain
Whales continued to accumulate shares amid sharp declines. Since mid-August last year, whale addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP have cumulatively increased their holdings by 4.63 billion XRP, valued at about $4.9 billion—whale wallet balances have risen from 7.5 billion to the current 12.13 billion. These whales did not buy at the top, but continued to accumulate shares in stages throughout the decline.
Exchange outflows are dominant. Binance Exchange outflows accounted for as much as 91.4%, with whales withdrawing $XRP from exchanges to self-custody wallets. Large holders account for about 90.5% of exchange traffic, indicating that these are withdrawals, hoarding, rather than deposits and selling. More than 332,000 wallets hold at least 10,000 XRP, but the number of new wallets created has dropped to its lowest since November 2024, indicating limited demand from new users, mainly due to large existing holders reallocating their positions.
In derivatives, top trading accounts accounted for 74.2% of long positions, while retail long accounts accounted for 71.3%—a high degree of alignment between bulls and bears. Open interest is about $355 million, down only 0.48% in the past 24 hours, with large and relatively stable long positions. The funding rate is 0.0055%, and the bulls have not yet been forced to close their positions.
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✅ Positive factors
🔹 Leading the top ten gains after the Fed's decision: After the FOMC kept rates unchanged, XRP rebounded about 3% from its intraday low, outperforming all tokens by market capitalization.
🔹 XRPL mainnet security upgrade: fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment has received about 85.71% validator support and is activated, with XRPL 3.2.0 becoming the minimum supported version of the mainnet. Features such as single-asset vaults, lending protocols, permissioned DEXs, and multi-purpose tokens have all been enhanced.
🔹 AI proxy transaction boom: Over 1 million AI proxy transactions have been processed on XRPL, expanding the ecosystem into the AI field.
🔹 ETF continued net inflows: Yesterday, XRP spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $584,700 (contributed only by Franklin XRP ETF), bringing historical cumulative net inflows to $1.496 billion, with total net assets of $989 million.
🔹 Number of holders has reached a record high: The number of fund addresses on the XRP Ledger has surpassed 8 million, and network adoption metrics continue to grow.
🔹 RLUSD Market Cap Growth: The market cap of RLUSD stablecoin grew by about $200 million in July, with institutional adoption expanding.
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❌ Bearish factors
🔻 Technicals are under pressure across the board: prices are far below the 20/50/100/200 daily moving averages, and the EMA structure shows a bearish alignment. The MACD histogram has flattened to near zero, indicating momentum exhaustion rather than recovery.
🔻 Extremely low trading volume: Behind the 24-hour gains, Binance's spot trading volume was only $79.4 million—a low-volume rally is a warning signal, not a strong reversal.
🔻 Bullish crowding risk: If the price falls below 1.06, $355 million in open long positions may accelerate sell-off, forming a stampede.
🔻 Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, there was a rare internal vote against rate hikes, putting overall pressure on risk assets.
🔻 New user growth stagnates: new wallet creations have dropped to their lowest level since November 2024, with retail participation down about 8.4%.
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🎯 Summary
XRP is on the eve of the shift in an extremely narrow range of 1.056-1.14. On-chain signals are contradictory but highly targeted—whales accumulated 4.63 billion tokens in the past year, ETF continued net inflows, and the upgrade of the XRPL mainnet provided medium-term support; However, technically overall, the overall bearish outlook, low trading volume, and highly crowded long positions pose short-term risks. 1.056 is the last line of defense for the bulls, and 1.097 is the first line of resistance for bears. Extreme tightening of the Bollinger Bands means a breakout is imminent—the direction chosen will determine the next trend. If volume surges above 1.097 and it holds steady, the rebound target is 1.132-1.217; if it loses 1.056, the lower target is 1.005 or even 0.84. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, but the stock plunge sparked controversy between two camps From Asia-Pacific and emerging markets to global corporate needs, compliant digital dollars have quietly entered an era of "distribution is king" alliances and alliances. Written by: Farmer Frank On corporate stablecoins, in recent years, the market has been discussing a story that is "about to happen." There are many versions of this story, but the core thread is roughly the same: traditional financial institutions are entering the field, compliant stablecoins will become the underlying infrastructure for cross-border payments, and corporate treasury management will undergo a paradigm shift. Supporting all this will be a new type of stablecoin jointly participated in by banks, payment institutions, and technology platforms. Few people question this narrative. In fact, it is precisely because it is so reasonable that the market has given it such high attention and expectations. After all, institutions and enterprises truly need a digital dollar that can enjoy blockchain efficiency and be accepted by finance, compliance, and risk departments. However, most past discussions have stayed in the future: which institutions are preparing to enter, which products are about to launch, and which payment and settlement scenarios are expected to migrate on-chain. Until recently, two clues worth watching simultaneously appeared in the market: On June 30, Open Standard officially announced Open USD (OUSD), bringing together over 140 financial, payment, tech, and crypto companies including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, BNY, Google, Coinbase, and more, with plans to officially launch later in 2026$BTC $ETH
7.30 Thursday midday market analysis.
The Federal Reserve's rate decision saw a rare 9-to-3 vote, with long-term Treasury yields rising following hawkish signals, leading to widespread sell-offs in tech stocks that rely on discounted forward cash flows.
Despite the heavy blow in US stocks, BTC and ETH have shown relative resilience in this round of macroeconomic headwinds, indicating that the market's absorption of rate hike expectations has surpassed that of traditional stock markets.
Tonight's PCE data will be a watershed moment for valuation corrections. If the data falls short of expectations, upward pressure on long-term interest rates will ease, and tech stocks and crypto assets may have a brief breathing room.
If the data exceeds expectations, long-term interest rates may surge further, intensifying selling pressure on overvalued assets and challenging the safe-haven logic of crypto assets as liquidity-sensitive assets.
If the earnings support from giants like Microsoft is completely offset by macro liquidity tightening, market confidence in performance defenses will waver, and asset valuation logic will shift from earnings-driven to purely interest-sensitive games.
BTC trading advice: short at 64,500, add positions at 65,100 and 65,700, stop loss above 66,000, take profit at 63,700-62,500. ETH trading advice: short at 1920-1950, stop loss at 2000, take profit at 1890-1850#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
📈 Microsoft's earnings soared 8%! Don't be fooled by “cost-cutting,” understanding these three points is the real skill
Last night, after Microsoft's earnings report was released, its stock price surged over 8% in after-hours trading, causing a frenzy on social media and stock forums. Many saw the headline “Microsoft cuts capital expenditure” and assumed Microsoft finally stopped burning cash and was saving money, rushing to buy in. But honestly, if you think that way, you might be misled. This surge was not driven by “saving money” but by “making money” and “smart accounting.” Here are three straightforward key points broken down for ordinary investors—read them and you'll understand.
1. “Cutting expenditure” is an accounting trick, not a real brake
Microsoft said capital expenditure will drop from 190 billion to 175 billion by 2027, a 15 billion decrease, which sounds like saving money, right? But the truth is: it’s just a change in accounting methods.
- Previously, data centers and office buildings were depreciated over 15 years; now it’s changed to 25 years, so the annual cost allocated is less;
- Some data center leases changed from “finance leases” to “operating leases,” so that money no longer counts as capital expenditure.
The CFO clearly stated in the conference call: actual cash spending hasn’t decreased, it’s even increasing. Microsoft has already signed $329.1 billion in data center lease contracts, with terms up to 2033. So don’t be fooled by the “cut,” Microsoft’s AI infrastructure investment hasn’t stopped, it just looks better on the books.
2. The real reason for the stock price surge: AI is truly making money
The market is willing to push Microsoft up 8% not because of “spending less,” but because it’s “earning money”:
- Azure cloud business growth hit 43%, with annual revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time, and this was achieved despite “insufficient computing power,” showing real strong demand;
- Copilot paid users jumped from 20 million last quarter to 30 million, enterprise customers are paying real money, AI isn’t just hype, it’s monetizing;
- There’s $678 billion in future unconfirmed revenue, mostly from non-AI top companies, indicating AI demand has spread from big tech to ordinary enterprises, making the business more stable.
Simply put: Microsoft wins not by “spending less,” but by “spending wisely and earning fast.”
3. Three practical tips for ordinary people
Understanding Microsoft’s logic helps ordinary investors avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities:
- Keep portfolio exposure during earnings season strictly between 3%-5%, set stop-loss lines: don’t put all your eggs in one basket; single stocks pending earnings disclosure should not exceed 5% of total funds, and highly volatile tech stocks should be limited to 2% or less. If the stock drops more than 8% after earnings, don’t hesitate—stop loss and exit to protect your principal, which is more important than anything.
- Avoid earnings disclosure windows, build positions early and take profits early: don’t gamble on direction 1-2 days before earnings, the risk is too high. You can build positions on dips 10-30 days in advance, and regardless of profit or loss before earnings, take all profits and exit before disclosure to avoid uncertainty.
- Use a “barbell strategy” allocation, don’t bet all on AI: allocate one end to stable, high-quality growth stocks like energy and financial sectors; the other end to low-volatility defensive assets like gold and dividend stocks. Only use a small portion of funds to participate in AI infrastructure earnings event trades; don’t put your entire net worth on AI. Balancing risk is the key to holding on.
One last reminder: Microsoft’s earnings report is a weather vane, not an investment manual. Ordinary investors reading earnings should not get confused by jargon; focusing on the core of “profitability” is more effective than fixating on any numbers. The market always rewards companies that make money, not just those that do accounting well. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
The Federal Reserve decision landed early this morning, keeping interest rates unchanged, but the 9:3 voting result is the real highlight.
Hammock, Kashkari, and Logan, three voting members, unanimously advocated a 25bp rate hike this time, marking the first time since 2016 that three votes opposed no rate hike in a single meeting.
After the meeting, Waller directly stated he refuses to call this pause in rate hikes a “rate hike pause,” bluntly saying this is just the beginning of policy assessment, effectively closing the door on short-term rate cuts. Currently, CME tools show about a 63.2% probability of a rate hike in September.
JPMorgan has significantly advanced its expectation for the Fed’s first rate hike from the second half of 2027 to December 2026.
Many people ask me whether to bet on a September rate hike or to maintain the status quo.
Here is my conclusion: I lean towards no rush to hike rates in September; tonight’s PCE data is the decisive judge.
The logic is clear: the three hawkish members’ collective opposition only proves huge internal inflation divergence, not that a rate hike will happen immediately. Waller has abandoned giving clear forward guidance, fully adopting a “data-driven” approach and will not act rashly based solely on members’ views. To push a September rate hike, sustained high inflation data support is necessary.
Core PCE will be released tonight at 20:30. I’m focusing on two sets of values:
✅ Triggering rate hike expectations: Core PCE YoY ≥ 3.4%, MoM ≥ 0.24%
If this range is reached, it means inflation stickiness far exceeds expectations, and the market will quickly raise the probability of a September rate hike, bearish for risk assets.
✅ Suppressing rate hike expectations: Core PCE YoY falls to within 3.2%, MoM below 0.18%
Inflation decline trend confirmed, likely keeping rates unchanged in September, easing tightening expectations, bullish for crypto and gold.
After this decision, major asset classes showed very divergent trends: Dow plunged 2.19%, the largest single-day drop in 15 months; gold rose above 4100 intraday; crypto markets showed relative resilience with clear divergence.
In summary: no need to bet on direction prematurely; wait for tonight’s PCE data. If data exceeds thresholds, beware of market pressure; if inflation cools as expected, the oscillating upward trend is likely to continue.
What do you think, will tonight’s PCE be above or below expectations?
$BTC $ETH Mid-term intelligence guy is online!
Before the PCE data release at 8:30 tonight, let's first sort out the current market's hidden cards for everyone.
Although the FOMC maintained interest rates unchanged with a 9:3 vote this time, Harker, Kashkari, and Logan voted for a rate hike, marking the first time since 2016 that three consistent votes for a rate increase appeared!
Additionally, Walsh bluntly stated, "This is not a pause, just the beginning of policy adjustment," and JPMorgan even brought forward the rate hike expectation to December this year. Currently, CME shows the probability of a September rate hike has surged to 63%.
Tonight's PCE is the "first referee" to verify this rate hike path. My personal judgment is that only if the core PCE month-over-month significantly exceeds expectations (for example, over 0.3%) can the September rate hike be firmly confirmed, pushing the probability higher.
Looking at asset divergence after the decision: the Dow Jones fell 2%, crypto rebounded, and gold $XAU climbed back above 4100.
The intelligence guy believes that gold's pricing is currently the most accurate. It ignores the short-term liquidity tightening negative factors and follows the mid-to-long-term logic of de-dollarization and inflation resistance. This is exactly the mid-term capital betting that the Fed will ultimately be forced into a dilemma by high inflation.
So, will there be a rate hike in September or not? Brothers, place your bets in the comments, and let's see who laughs last with a mid-term perspective! #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 📊 On-chain analyst perspective: $DOGE Real-time market analysis
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📈 Support and resistance level assessment
$DOGE Currently fluctuating near 0.070, with a 24-hour range of 0.0698-0.0707, market capitalization about $12 billion. Year-to-date, down over 40%, with a year-to-date drop of 68%, overall in a deep bear market structure.
Upside resistance: The first resistance is in the 0.073-0.074 area. A more critical supply zone is at 0.075-0.081—about 35 billion DOGE have been purchased in this range. This area is also a zone of concentrated short liquidations, and a breakout could trigger chain short covering. If volume increases above 0.081, the upper target could be 0.085-0.09.
Support below: The first line of defense is at the 0.07 rounder level, where whales once accumulated about 200 million DOGE through Robinhood. Secondary support is in the 0.068-0.069 area, which is near the current 52-week low. If it falls, the next core support is at 0.065; further down is 0.057, which can be traced back to 2023.
RSI reading around 42 indicates bearish momentum but not extreme oversold; OBV is at a local low, with stable selling pressure persisting over the past ten days. Overall, the price is operating within a descending channel.
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🐋 Market maker movements on the chain
Whale behavior is highly polarized—there is both large-scale accumulation and sustained selling pressure.
Accumulation side: Large holders holding over 1 billion DOGE have expanded their total holdings to 73.85 billion tokens, with whales viewing market weakness as accumulation zones. On July 7, a whale transferred 3.99 billion DOGE (about $300 million) from Binance to an unknown wallet, one of the largest single on-chain transfers in 2026. Large capital withdrawals from exchanges are often seen as signals of potential long-term holdings. Another whale bought about 200 million DOGE via Robinhood near 0.07. On-chain data over the past week showed whales moved 900 million DOGE in a single day.
Selling side: On July 7, a wallet address transferred 106.43 million DOGE (about $35.88 million) into Coinbase; on July 11, two more transactions of 104 million DOGE (about $65.2 million) each were transferred from unknown wallets to Coinbase. Bulls and bears are fiercely trading around 0.07—whales are both withdrawing and hoarding coins from exchanges and injecting selling pressure into exchanges.
Regarding the long-short ratio: the proportion of long positions has climbed to about 70%, with every 3.3 longs corresponding to one short. The market is strongly betting on a rebound, but this also means that if prices continue to fall, the risk of a bullish stampede cannot be ignored.
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✅ Positive factors
🔹 Ten-year support trendline test: $DOGE The monthly level is testing a long-term uptrend line that has triggered multiple strong rallies since 2017, with current support around 0.075. Historically, the first two touches of this trendline were followed by aggressive bull markets in 2017 and 2021.
🔹 ETF Net Inflows Return: DOGE spot ETFs recorded their first net inflow since mid-June—though only $345,000, the directional shift is significant.
🔹 Whale bottom-accumulation signal: On-chain data shows large players are continuously accumulating near 0.07. Looking back at January 2021 and February 2024, whales quietly accumulated shares at the bottom, often accompanied by waves of FOMO.
🔹 Analyst bullish target: Analyst Javon Marks points out that the Fibonacci extension pattern could drive DOGE toward the cyclical target of $2.82.
🔹 Optimism in the meme ecosystem: Crypto commentator David Gokhshtein stated that the strong performance of DOGE and SHIB will boost the entire meme coin ecosystem.
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❌ Bearish factors
🔻 Oversupply pressure: About 35 billion DOGE were bought near 0.081, forming a massive supply wall. Continued strong selling pressure, with even short squeezes toward 0.080 failing to materialize.
🔻 Technically, overall bearish: prices are well below the 50-day moving average (about 0.08) and 200-day moving average (about 0.10). The weekly chart is in a bearish trend. The weekly 50MA is approaching the 200MA, and a death cross may occur in the coming weeks.
🔻 Continued macro pressure: The Fed kept rates unchanged but rarely voted against rate hikes, putting overall pressure on risk assets. DOGE, as a high-beta meme coin, is extremely sensitive to macro sentiment.
🔻 Unlimited supply inflationary pressure: DOGE has no maximum supply cap, with annual inflation of about 3.5 billion coins. Long-term holders face ongoing dilution pressure, which is a structural bearish factor limiting price upside.
🔻 Social heat cools: Co-founder Billy Markus bluntly stated that the current market is "really boring." DOGE has always relied on social narrative drives, and without new catalysts, its price tends to remain sluggish.
---
🎯 Summary
DOGE is fluctuating within the 0.068-0.074 range, testing a ten-year long-term support trendline. On-chain signals are extremely contradictory—whale holdings have expanded to 73.85 billion, ETF net inflows have returned to medium-term support, but the supply wall formed by 35 billion DOGE, the technicals are broadly bearish, unlimited supply inflation and macro headwinds create multiple pressures. 0.07 is the core battleground of bull-bear battles: holding it could rebound to 0.075-0.081; losing it could slip toward 0.065 or even 0.057. The direction depends on whether the long-term trendline can hold and the supply wall can be broken. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, post-hours gains 8.5% #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, causing both sides to plunge #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
This should be the most conflicted FOMC meeting of the year. Nominally, the policy is on hold, but among the 9:3 vote, three dissenting votes called for a rate hike—the highest number since 2016. Waller said at the press conference that "there is no soft inflation target," and the market understood this as—"this is not a pause, but the beginning of policy adjustment."
Tonight's PCE is the real judge.
The market expects June core PCE to rise 3.3% year-over-year, slightly below the previous 3.4%. But the problem is that oil prices have returned to an upward trend, and the energy component of July CPI will likely reverse June's decline. If tonight's data only meets expectations, it may not be enough. The Fed looks at data trends, not just single-month readings.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in September has exceeded 60%. JPMorgan has moved forward its rate hike expectations from the second half of 2027 to December this year. The three dissenting votes plus Waller's hawkish tone mean the market is rapidly repricing.
What numbers do we need to see tonight?
If core PCE year-over-year is below 3.2%, it may temporarily suppress rate hike expectations and cause a short-term rebound in risk assets. If core PCE year-over-year is above 3.4%, the probability of a September hike may rise further, and BTC could face new pressure. If the data is around 3.3%, the market will likely continue the current logic—the direction still points to a September hike, but the magnitude won't be drastic.
What Wall Street fears most is not bad data, but ambiguous data. Ambiguity means prolonged uncertainty, and Waller has clearly stated the Fed will no longer provide forward guidance.
What are assets pricing in?
The Dow fell 2.19%, the Nasdaq has dropped for six consecutive days entering a correction zone, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 5.33%. But gold rose above $4100, and the crypto market showed relative resilience. Waller downplayed the weight of PCE, hinting at possibly enriching the inflation target content—this is essentially telling the market that the Fed's decision-making framework is changing, and the market is still adapting.
After the PCE data, the market will reprice the probability of a September rate hike. The direction is uncertain; watch more, trade less. Don't bet on a one-sided move, don't bear uncertainty 1. Overall judgment: The FOMC has ended, but the market has not moved out of a sustainable one-sided direction. BTC, ETH, and SOL all experienced rapid surges, pullbacks, and rebounds before and after the rate decision, eventually returning to the middle of their 24-hour range. A more accurate current market system is: wide volatility after the event's shock, combined with low trading volume before the next round of macro data release. Binance public data shows BTC rose about 0.35%, ETH rose about 0.22%, and SOL rose about 0.45% in the past 24 hours. On the surface, all three maintained slight gains, but the latest prices are near the midpoint of their respective 24-hour highs and lows: BTC range 63,234.00—64,715.90, current price about 63,994; ETH range: 1870.26–1935.00, current price about 1901.64; SOL range: 72.26–74.50, current price about 73.49. All three are around the middle 40% of the effective range, directly triggering V2's closed position conditions. Currently, going long is too close to the resistance, short selling is not far enough from support, and the risk-reward after cost is unreasonable. The Coin Security Market Overview shows the total market capitalization of the crypto market is about $2.18 trillion, with little change; total market turnover is about $65.1 billion, up about 2.61%; The Fear and Greed Index is 36, still in the fear zone. Market trading volume has not completely disappeared, but the latest full-hour trading volumes for BTC, ETH, and SOL are all significantly lower than during FOMC#财报观察员：Microsoft Cloud revenue breaks 100 billion, but Meta's guidance disappoints—Is the AI story diverging?
$BTC currently at 63930, the market is waiting for tonight's answers. Let's first talk about what came out last night.
Microsoft Q4 revenue 90 billion, +18%, Azure growth accelerating, Copilot enterprise paying users data exceeded expectations. This is AI monetization, not just an AI story. Every Copilot subscription is a real monthly fee, every Azure AI call is a real bill.
Meta revenue 60.8 billion, +28%, growth faster than Microsoft. But free cash flow hit a four-year low, capital expenditure expected to reach 130-145 billion. Market reaction was a drop.
🤔 Why does higher growth lead to a drop?
Because these two companies are doing fundamentally different things. Microsoft is selling AI to enterprises, Meta is burning money on AI to build infrastructure. One is revenue, the other is investment.
Meta's business model is essentially advertising; AI helps improve ad targeting precision, which is already reflected in revenue, +28% proves that.
But Zuckerberg wants more than that; he is betting on AGI, the Llama open-source ecosystem, next-generation computing infrastructure. The return cycle on these investments can't be seen in a single quarter.
🤔 The question is: How long is the market willing to wait while burning so much money?
I thought of a reference point: Amazon from 2013 to 2018. During those years, the market kept criticizing Bezos for burning cash without profits, but AWS was quietly becoming the world's largest cloud platform. Today AWS's gross margin supports all of Amazon. Zuckerberg is probably making the same bet, but the bet is on AI-era infrastructure.
But here is a key difference: Amazon burned money to build the cloud with a clear B2B monetization path. What is Meta burning money to build? Open-source models, self-developed chips, super data centers—the beneficiaries are the entire industry. Where is Meta's own moat? Until this question has a clear answer, the continuous decline in FCF will remain a variable suppressing valuation.
So this is not a divergence in the AI story, but a difference in monetization timing.
Microsoft is taking the SaaS embedding route; AI is integrated into Office, Teams, Azure, enterprise customers pay per seat, cash flow is visible today. Meta is taking the platform reshaping route; AI will redefine what kind of company it is, and this answer may only be clear three years from now.
Tonight's Amazon earnings report is the most important validation today. If AWS accelerates, it means enterprise AI cloud demand has not peaked, and Microsoft's Azure story becomes more solid. If AWS guidance falls short, then Microsoft's rise last night is an isolated event, not an industry resonance. Apple's highlight is service revenue and Apple Intelligence penetration rate, which is the first real data point of AI monetization on the consumer side.
Once these two earnings reports are out, the full picture of AI monetization will be complete.
Before that, there will be no conclusion on BTC's direction.
DYOR Not investment advice A "sacrifice" repeatedly verified by history?
Why is it that South Korea always pays the bill first in every major crash?
Reviewing past major financial crises, South Korea has always played the role of a "prophet."
Whether it was the Korean won losing its first exchange rate in 1997 and the KOSPI cliff, the early peak of South Korea's semiconductor industry in 2000, or the first plunge in Korean stocks in July 2008, all accurately reimagined the subsequent global turmoil.
Historical data repeatedly confirms that fluctuations in the Korean market often signal major shifts in global liquidity or fundamentals, serving as the first warning line before the storm arrives.
#韩股波动剧烈引监管介入, the finance minister apologized for leveraged ETFs Why did the Nasdaq-100 index fall?
The weekly RSI peaked above 70 but has now fallen back to 51. A typical overbought pullback. The weekly MACD has just formed a death cross. Both are sending the same message: the rally is overstretched.
From a macro perspective, China disrupted memory trading. CXMT's Shanghai IPO surged 466% on its first day, once becoming the highest-valued stock in China, but concerns over cheaper supply in China dragged down the prices of Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Samsung.
China is now also manufacturing lithography machines for printing microchips.
Sometimes, appearances have a greater impact than reality. China has not yet reached ASML's level, at least not yet, and the market may have overreacted to a threat that will take years to materialize.
I see support around 26,000 points, supported by the weekly EMA50. Whether we can hold on, we'll know soon. Not financial advice.🚨 U.S. Prediction Markets Just Got Even More Legally Divided
On July 30, Judge William Griesbach (E.D. Wisconsin) denied the CFTC's request for a preliminary injunction that would have stopped Wisconsin from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Crypto.com.
The court ruled that the CFTC is unlikely to prove sports event contracts qualify as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). It also emphasized that gambling regulation has traditionally been a state power, and Congress has not clearly overridden that authority.
Kalshi, Crypto.com Derivatives, and the American Gaming Association were also denied intervention.
The legal map is now deeply split:
🟢 Wisconsin → State wins. CFTC injunction denied.
🟢 Minnesota → Prediction markets win. State ban blocked; judge ruled event contracts are swaps.
🟢 New Jersey (3rd Circuit) → Kalshi wins.
🔴 New York, Ohio & Washington → States prevail.
Same federal law. Same event contracts.
Yet completely different outcomes depending on which courtroom hears the case.
This kind of circuit split is exactly what often sets the stage for a U.S. Supreme Court review.
Why this matters:
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi can currently operate in some states while remaining blocked in others.
That patchwork creates:
• Regulatory uncertainty
• Institutional hesitation
• Slower adoption of prediction markets
Many in the industry believe the CLARITY Act—with a Senate vote potentially as early as August 3—could provide a nationwide regulatory framework and reduce this legal uncertainty.
Not financial or legal advice.
$POL $COIN $HOOD 📉 Korean stocks plunge sharply in the afternoon! $SKHYNIX SK Hynix crashes 5.8%, is the semiconductor sector collapsing again?
Folks, today's Korean stock market action is really intense! 🎢 The morning session was trying to turn positive, but in the afternoon it took a high dive, with the KOSPI index's latest decline widening to 1.4%, wiping out all intraday gains! 😱
As a market bellwether, memory giant SK Hynix plunged 5.8%, while Samsung Electronics barely managed a slight 0.2% gain. When will the selling pressure on the semiconductor sector finally end? 🤯
Based on the latest market developments, here are some key points for you to bookmark and review carefully:
💡 Why such a sharp drop? Three core reasons
1. Earnings “good news fully priced in” + below expectationsSK Hynix’s Q2 operating profit surged 557% year-on-year to a record high, but still fell short of the market’s previously ultra-high expectation of 64 trillion KRW (actual 60.54 trillion). Given that the stock price had already priced in too much optimism earlier, this “below expectations” became the last straw that broke the camel’s back. 💔
2. The “death spiral” of leveraged ETFsThis is the main amplifier of the current plunge! Many Korean retail investors hold 2x leveraged ETFs, which trigger programmed passive sell-offs during declines. The more it falls → the more it sells → the more it falls → more forced liquidations, creating a vicious stampede. According to Citibank data, on July 28 alone, leveraged product market value evaporated by $5 billion! 💸 The Korean Finance Minister has publicly apologized, admitting insufficient consideration when launching single-stock leveraged ETFs.
3. Global AI faith shaken + US stock market transmissionThe Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US dropped over 5% overnight, raising doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures. Plus, China's ChangXin Memory Technologies' IPO and capacity expansion weakened Korean firms’ exclusive premium advantage, prompting foreign investors to take profits at high levels. 🌍
⚠️ Urgent reminders & follow-up attention
● Regulatory market support: The Korean government has stepped in to limit retail investors’ leveraged ETF exposure and raised margin requirements, but short-term sentiment recovery will still take time.
● Exchange rate divergence: Notably, the Korean won strengthened about 6% against the trend in July (due to rate hikes + export settlement), showing a rare “stock down, currency up” phenomenon, indicating the capital flow is not a total collapse but a structural adjustment.
● Technical warning: The KOSPI has retraced over 30% from its June high, officially entering a technical bear market. Analysts believe it is still too early to turn optimistic, as adjustment risks have not been fully released.
📝 Investment tips
● Investors holding Korean stocks/semiconductor-related QDII funds should closely watch tonight’s US chip stock performance and subsequent Korean regulatory actions.
● Avoid blindly bottom-fishing! Leveraged liquidation takes time; waiting for a right-side stabilization signal is safer.
● In the long term, AI computing power demand remains, but short-term valuation digestion is inevitable; patience is more important than frequent trading. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 🟢 Short Liquidation Alert – $SOXL
Bears just got squeezed.
💥 $2.7404K in short positions were liquidated at $91.99, signaling bullish pressure as sellers were forced to exit.
Keep an eye on volume and price action—if momentum continues, volatility could increase.
#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #SpaceX1.6BDeal #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
Microsoft's earnings exceeded expectations, and AI investments are starting to pay off. Revenue reached $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year, with Azure growing 43%, surpassing $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time. Copilot has over 30 million paying users, with after-hours trading rising about 9% at one point. The key point is not the numbers, but that the logic has changed. AI is no longer just a money-burning story; it is continuously generating cash flow. This could mean that demand for computing power remains, and the industry chain is still thriving. Next, it will be interesting to see how other tech giants respond.Market analysis on July 30, 2026
If you're willing to accept the truth of the fall, you can watch it all; If you're still dreaming of a bull market, you can block me.
Why am I still sticking to a bearish approach in the second half of 2026?
The core reason is still this chart: the market has not yet seen the "oversold + high-volume decline" I was waiting for. In my trading framework, there is no obvious low in volume release, making it difficult to directly confirm the cycle bottom.
In the chart, I continue to focus on 57,700, 49,000, and the reaction after volume surges at lower levels. These are just observation areas and do not necessarily mean prices will arrive.
The South Korean market is often an early thermometer of global risk.
Reviewing three major financial crises:
The 1997 Asian financial crisis
The crisis began in Thailand and then spread to South Korea. The Korean won depreciated rapidly, putting pressure on foreign exchange reserves; KOSPI fell about 42% for the year, with a maximum drop of about 64% from its 1996 peak to its low at the end of 1997. In December, South Korea received IMF aid, and the risks subsequently spread to broader emerging markets.
The internet bubble burst in 2000
KOSPI peaked first in January, and the Nasdaq peaked in March. South Korea's technology and semiconductor sector weakened early, followed by the Nasdaq dropping about 78% from its high to its 2002 low.
The 2008 global financial crisis
The Korean stock market has clearly weakened in July. After Lehman Brothers went bankrupt on September 15, global markets entered an accelerated downward phase, with KOSPI subsequently dropping to its October low.
South Korea is not necessarily the starting point of every crisis, but because the economy heavily depends on exports, semiconductors, and foreign investment, market volatility often reflects global risks earlier and more intensely.
[The Korean market may not create crises, but it often serves as a warning of risks. 】
The above content is solely a personal market analysis and trading strategy record and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position and risk according to your own situation.Don't be fooled by Toutiao—today's data is quietly contradicting the narrative of a "soft landing."
Another day of information entropy overflowing. I stared at the numbers on the screen. Honestly, as soon as the initial unemployment claims data came out this morning, I knew those accounts shouting "the economy is unbreakable" were about to start their show again—221,000 initial hires seemed ordinary, right? But do you dare to look down a line and see the number of continued jobless claims? 1.873 million, the highest in nearly three months.
What is this called? This is called boiling a frog in warm water. Companies dare not conduct large-scale layoffs because hiring is too expensive, but once demand loosens, the first thing cut is working hours and overtime. You ask me why I'm so sure? Because over the past three weeks, I've repeatedly broken down the "hourly wage elasticity coefficient" in retail data, and that slope has honestly told me—the labor market is shifting from "quantitative easing" to "contraction." Most people only see the numbers aren't off the charts, but what I see is that the average time spent searching for a job is getting longer, which is much scarier than the simple layoff numbers, because it's chronic blood loss, not acute shock.
Next, let's look at the bond market. Today, the 2-year yield dropped by 2 basis points, the 10-year yield barely moved, and the curve flattened. Guess what the market is trading? It's not a celebration of rate cut expectations, but a fear of the reasons for the cuts. Unlike those accounts that only repost Wall Street research, I never believed the market would flatten the "good news"—flattening only happens in one case: short-term bets on liquidity easing, but long-term discounts on growth prospects. This is not pricing in rate cuts; it's the anesthetic before a price recession.
Don't forget, the Fed's "data dependence" rambling yesterday has already made my ears callouse. But I want to ask: if inflation really fell smoothly as they predicted, why is the breakeven inflation rate expanding today? Because the market is more honest than Powell, it knows that the stickiness of service inflation is still hidden in the sub-sectors of rent and healthcare, and those fancy seasonal adjustment factors cannot hide the truth. Two weeks ago, my model pointed out the risk of tail curling up in core services CPI, and today's bond market reaction is merely a footnote to my judgment.
As for crypto, today's trends for BTC and ETH are even more interesting. BTC surged and then retreated, while ETH was exceptionally resilient and kept climbing. I know many people say it's "decoupling from US stocks," but my observations aren't that romantic—on-chain data tells me ETH is being massively drained of liquidity, exchange balances are dropping to yearly lows, clearly indicating that whales are quietly hoarding chips, betting on the regulatory implementation of the staking sector next quarter. What about BTC? Sorry, it now feels more like a highly volatile tech blue chip, temporarily losing its narrative dominance. If you only focus on candlestick lines and draw trend lines, you'll never understand this kind of divergence; But if you track the anomalies of whale addresses on-chain, the answer is already written there.
To be honest in the end: the biggest risk in the market right now isn't a recession or an inflation rebound, but that everyone is crammed into the same narrative carriage—soft landing, rate cuts, Blonde girls. Sounds great, doesn't it? But history repeatedly tells me that the moment consensus is reached, that's when expectations gaps begin to brew. My strategy never follows the headlines; I only trust the lines the data carves beneath the noise. Today, these patterns point to a macro picture that is more tangled and twisted than it appears on the surface.
Don't wait for the news to feed you; you have to learn to dig out the ingredients yourself before the news comes out. This is the most fundamental difference between my analysis and most accounts. $BTC $ETH will continue to provide their answers, and my task is to read the draft half a step ahead of the market to understand that answer.New on-chain funds have also started to stagnate. Without new buying, Bitcoin's ability to hold out and avoid collapse is entirely due to the 300,000 tokens accumulated earlier. Simply put, the current market support is not new buying but gradually reducing selling pressure.
Currently, just focus on the 63k area for the current watershed; other levels are not very useful. The stock market has been heavily deleveraging recently, and the crypto sector hasn't followed the decline because it was cleared out in mid-month;
Once the remaining funds are completely exhausted, even minimal selling pressure can trigger a bottomless breakout. Seeing a bearish trend is completely acceptable. August will still be the main decline, and even if there is a rebound, it's still a good opportunity to get in.SpaceX's stock price has already been cut in half, but the company's business hasn't been cut in half
This is where we should be paying attention
Today, SpaceX's stock price has dropped to around $113, with a market value of about $1.53 trillion
This price is about 16.6% lower than the IPO price of $135, and the drawdown is over 50% below the high of $225.64 after the June IPO
But Starlink is still growing, rockets are still being launched, and military orders are still being secured
So what the market is truly repricing now may not be "whether SpaceX can still make money," but rather whether the valuation it was previously given was too high
At the time of IPO, SpaceX was valued at about $1.77 trillion at an issue price of $135. After listing, the stock price surged to $225.64, with a market capitalization once exceeding $2.6 trillion. Now it has dropped to around $112, with market capitalization down to about $1.53 trillion, meaning more than $1 trillion has evaporated from its peak valuation
So this current price can't simply be understood as "SpaceX is half off."
Because the company's valuation itself is still very high
The real question is how much the market is willing to give it future expectations
And August will provide a very direct answer to this question
On August 4, SpaceX will release its first quarterly financial report since going public, marking the first time the market has truly seen its performance as a publicly listed company
Soon after, the first batch of large-scale restricted stocks was released in early August, with the market paying the most attention to the timing around the earnings report
In other words, in August, two things will be presented to investors at the same time:
The company's real performance
and the actual stock supply in the market
If the earnings report is good and the stock price can stabilize after the lock-up lift, the market may start to believe that the previous round of declines was mainly about digesting valuations and chips
But if the financial report is solid, military orders keep coming, and the stock price is still being weighed down by heavy selling, it suggests that the problem may not be SpaceX as a bad company, but rather that the market still feels the price is expensive
Coincidentally, at this very moment, SpaceX secured another $1.6 billion order for the U.S. Space Force
There are 18 Falcon 9 launch missions, scheduled all the way through 2027
This order is certainly positive, and its most important significance is not the $1.6 billion itself
Instead, it once again proves that SpaceX's core business remains highly competitive
So now SpaceX has a rather interesting contradiction
The company is still securing orders, and its fundamentals haven't suddenly collapsed
However, the stock price has already fallen by half from its peak, and its market value has dropped from over $2.6 trillion to around $1.5 trillion
August will soon bring financial reports and the lifting of restrictions
So this $1.6 billion order seems to be a breath of fresh air for the bulls
It solves the supply of shares caused by the unban and cannot directly push the valuation back to $225
But at least it gives the market another solid fundamental support as it prepares to continue trading "overvalued" and "unrestricted selling pressure."
So I think what really makes SpaceX worth watching isn't whether this order will immediately push the stock price up
The question is whether the stock price can still hold up after the August 4th earnings report is released and the unlocking chips truly enter the market
If it can hold on and even strengthen again, it indicates the market may have started accepting a new valuation of around $1.5 trillion
But if orders keep coming and the financial results are not bad, the stock price will continue to fall
Then it's very simple
The company may still be a good one, but the market still feels that $1.5 trillion is not cheap enough
#SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy between two camps
$SPCX #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
Microsoft Q4 revenue hits 90 billion; others crash but it beats expectations, yet this earnings report has plenty of hidden issues
These past few days, tech stocks have been a disaster: Google's capital expenditure overshoot caused a 7% crash, SK Hynix posted record losses dropping 18%, dragging down the Korean stock market into a circuit breaker. Then Microsoft's earnings came out: 90 billion in revenue, Azure up 43%, after-hours rallying nearly 9%, truly the village's hope amid the wails.
But honestly, don't change your faith just because of one bullish candle. The highlights in this report are bright, but the tricks run deep.
The strongest confidence indeed comes from Azure, with 43% growth beating market expectations by two points, and next quarter guidance at 45%, basically confirming that AI computing demand isn't cooling and cloud business recovery continues. The biggest relief for the market was the capital expenditure, which was directly revised down from 190 billion to 175 billion for fiscal 2027. Funds that were scared stiff by Google a few days ago instantly cheered.
But on closer inspection, it's not that simple.
Net profit includes $3.2 billion investment gains from Anthropic; excluding this one-time income, the profit beat is halved immediately. The capital expenditure cut isn't really spending less; it's extending data center depreciation from 15 to 25 years and changing finance leases to operating leases—purely accounting maneuvers to optimize the report. The money burned hasn't decreased a penny.
In short, it's not that Microsoft is so amazing, but peers make it look good. Everyone was scared into pessimistic expectations by Google first, so Microsoft only needed to deliver a slightly above average report to be treated as good news.
A short-term rebound to boost sentiment is fine, but with the Fed's hawkish stance and US Treasury yields hitting new highs daily, the big picture hasn't changed. One earnings report can't ease the pressure on overvalued growth stocks.
Don't chase the rally just because prices rise; once sentiment cools, volatility will return as expected. The Federal Reserve's latest decision kept interest rates unchanged as expected by the market, but the post-meeting statement was a typical hawkish pause, with an overall tight tone.
The biggest difference from the Powell era is that Waller has significantly cut forward guidance, with most of his remarks emphasizing close monitoring of real-time economic data, returning pricing power to the market, and no longer providing clear indications of the interest rate path. This means that every subsequent inflation and employment data release will trigger intense market volatility, greatly increasing uncertainty.
From many market perspectives, Waller's style perfectly aligns with Trump's demands: firmly fighting inflation to stabilize the fundamentals, while avoiding the market front-running policy rhythm, allowing greater flexibility in future policies and more operational flexibility during the election cycle. The expectation of maintaining high interest rates for longer is heating up, which will suppress risk assets like crypto and U.S. stocks in the short term. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 The August curse is about to strike—can Da Bing handle it this time? Guys, Bitcoin rebounded in July, rising from 57,800 to above 65,000, up about 12% so far in July. But August will be the real test. Looking back at previous years, August has been the weakest month in Bitcoin's history.
Since 2013, the median return in August was -7.5%, with only 31% of years showing positive returns. August and September combined mean 10 out of 13 years have been losing money. Over the past four years (2022-2025), all August months have closed.
Currently, the macro perspective is not on the bulls' side. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has soared to 80%. Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for four consecutive days, with over $500 million withdrawn within two weeks.
However, there's no need to be overly pessimistic. According to the latest data, whales bought about $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin in July. The current situation is that big players are buying while retail investors are exiting.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating between 63,000 and 64,000. Above is 66,000 as the double top neckline resistance level, and below 60,000 is the long-term lifeline. In August, it is highly likely that the market will continue to bottom out in the 62,000-68,000 range.
What should you do next? Let me say to wait and see cautiously for now, and wait until early August for the direction to become clearer before making any moves
Want to go long: pull back to 62,000-63,000 to stabilize and lightly take a long position, stop loss at 60,000, target 66,000-68,000, leverage within 3-5 times
Want to short: rebound 66,000-67,000 hitting resistance, short the position, stop loss at 68,500, target 63,000-62,000, leverage also 3-5x
August is a seasonal off-season, and combined with macro uncertainty, controlling positions is more important than judging direction.
Adjust your position according to your capital allocation; never be a gambler. Staying alive is always more important than making quick money. Every time I post, I see this phrase—it's a warning bell ringing continuously! This is not only a warning to myself, but also a reminder to all brothers who like to take heavy positions and leverage their positions. Thanks for reading the comments. 🙏🙏🙏目前闪迪最新分析！
兄弟们看数据。
闪迪（SNDK） 最新价 1021.89，日内微跌0.19%。左边高点 1694.94，右边现在 1021.89，从高点下来已经跌了超过42%。
如果你从7月17日费城半导体指数进入技术性熊市那天算起，闪迪跌幅甚至超过50%。
存储股的惨状已经画出来了。
技术面怎么看？
布林带：上轨1104.58，下轨970.61，中轨1037.60。价格贴着布林下轨附近运行，属于弱势震荡。MACD零轴下方DIFF -20.60、DEA -24.54，虽然是金叉，但能量柱只有7.89，反弹力度很弱。SAR 1080.29和SuperTrend 1135.42全压在头顶，空头趋势没结束。
关键点位：上方第一阻力 1080-1100，突破看 1135-1150；下方第一支撑 970-1000，破了直接看 900 整数关口。
但老默想说的是另一件事。
闪迪的暴跌不是一个人在战斗。SK海力士从高点跌了快40%，三星电子跌超32%，西部数据也在同步崩盘。整个存储芯片板块正在经历一场踩踏式出清。
原因老默之前说过——AI信仰松动+韩国流动性危机+对冲基金砍仓，三重压力把存储股按在地上摩擦。
而这不只是存储股的事。韩国人手里不仅有闪迪、海力士、三星的股票，他们还有大饼和以太。
泡菜溢价连续多日为负，说明韩国人正在卖一切能卖的东西来补保证金。大饼从66000上方回落到64500附近，以太从1960回落到1900附近，跟存储股的崩盘是同一个逻辑。
操作建议
如果你手里有闪迪的多单，老默只能说——反弹减仓，别幻想V型反转。 上方1080-1100是密集套牢盘，没有巨量资金解放不了。950-970附近如果缩量企稳，可以考虑小仓位搏反弹，但止损必须带在 900 下方。
如果你关注的是大饼以太，盯紧存储股什么时候止跌。 存储股不止跌，韩国人就不停止抛售，大饼以太短期就还有压力。
大饼守住64000、以太守住1880，多头结构就还在；守不住，下方空间打开。
老默多说一句： 闪迪从1694跌到972，腰斩之后还有腰斩。这种跌幅说明市场正在重新定价AI硬件板块的未来。你在这个时候抄底，赌的是“AI故事还没讲完”，但你要想清楚——机构的耐心可能比你的仓位先耗尽。
闪迪这波你会抄底还是观望？评论区站队聊聊。👊
觉得老默拆得清楚的，点个赞关注，关键位置到了我第一时间喊你。$BTC $ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #美军空袭伊朗, oil prices surged and then retreated
Oil prices are volatile in the short term, and the escalation of conflict has not led to sustained increases, indicating that funds are not currently treating supply disruptions as a benchmark scenario; However, geopolitical risks have not disappeared, and energy prices may still rapidly amplify inflation trading.
Previously, oil prices surged, with Brent reaching $88, then pulled back after news of the airstrike, with WTI returning to around $82.75. The price surged first and then retreated, reflecting the market's expectations of the event itself and the ongoing wait to see if actual transportation and supply would be affected.
The bulls bet that if Hormuz shipping is disrupted, crude oil will be re-marked at a scarcity premium; Bears are betting on limited action, diplomatic outlets, and war premiums that will be quickly sold off as in previous years. For risk assets, if oil prices strengthen again, inflation and interest rate pressures will resurface.
Later, we will see whether the intensive crackdowns expand, whether shipping is disrupted, and whether diplomatic communication has resumed. Without real supply shocks, sharp oil price surges can easily recede; Once logistics get stuck, the pace of market revaluation can be very rapid.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.#财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？
The AI sector will continue to diverge, with short-term capital favoring companies that have already converted AI capabilities into stable revenue, while being more critical of narratives involving high investment and low cash returns.
Microsoft's quarterly revenue is about $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year, with cloud business growth realized; Meta's revenue grows faster but issues a weaker guidance, with free cash flow dropping to a four-year low and capital expenditures planned to rise to $130 billion to $145 billion. Both companies are investing in AI, but the market feedback is completely different.
The capital is not rejecting AI investment but distinguishing who has repeatable commercialization outlets. New revenue from cloud services is more easily accepted by valuation models, while continued investment in advertising platforms requires a longer time to prove returns. Meta's pressure lies in expenses being realized first, while profit improvement cannot rely solely on narrative promises.
Next, we will watch whether revenue growth, cash flow, and investment pace can improve synchronously in subsequent earnings reports. AI valuation is beginning to be accounted for based on results; companies with only cost growth will find it increasingly difficult to tell their story.
The above is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are at your own risk. #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy between two camps
I remain cautious about this stock in the short term. While military orders can prove business barriers, it is difficult to immediately resolve the chip pressure caused by high-level pullbacks, short crowding, and the release of restricted stocks.
The $1.6 billion contract covers 18 launches, indicating that there is still stable demand for core launch capabilities. However, the stock price has retreated nearly half from its mid-June peak and fallen below the IPO offering price, shifting the market from "is the company good?" to "is it worth buying at the current price?"
Nearly 30% of the circulating shares have been shorted, meaning that once the short position is filled, the stock price may rebound sharply; However, the unlocking of the first batch of restricted shares in August will increase potential selling pressure. Bulls bet that orders and technical barriers will eventually overpower sentiment, while bears bet that the valuation correction space left by previous valuations has yet to be cleared.
Next, we need to see whether actual supply, order fulfillment pace, and short positions decrease after the lock-up is lifted. When a good company meets crowded chips, it's often not the hard direction to judge, but the pace of entry that is the most likely to hurt people.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
There is a generally positive risk appetite for large tech stocks, but the capital flowing in is not just for a pure AI story; it is for evidence that "investments can be recouped." Companies that can control spending while still growing revenue are more likely to receive valuation premiums in the short term compared to peers who continue to increase spending.
Microsoft's quarterly revenue reached $90.01 billion, with Azure growing 43%, while also providing a more restrained plan for subsequent investments. At a stage when AI investment returns are under concentrated scrutiny, this combination is more convincing than just high growth alone. The significant after-hours rise also reflects the market's revaluation of cash efficiency.
However, capital expenditures for this fiscal year still increased by 70% year-over-year to $41 billion. The so-called "spending less" is only relative to peers and previous expectations. The market is willing to assign a high valuation because it believes the cloud business can cover this investment; if cloud growth slows down, cost savings might instead be interpreted as weak demand.
Going forward, it will depend on whether cloud business growth can be maintained, whether free cash flow improves, and whether the reduction in capital expenditures continues. AI trading has moved from discussing visions to speaking with profit and loss statements.
The above is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are at your own risk. 有一条重要的信息！！！
全球最大上市比特币矿企 MARA 的总裁宣布转型，从单一挖矿改成掌握土地、电力和数据中心资源的能源基础设施平台。Core Scientific、TeraWulf、IREN 都在调头。
比特币从去年10月约12.6万美元的高点跌到6.4万附近。矿工的电力和选址资源，卖给科技巨头比卖给区块更值钱。
赚到的是手里有并网容量的那几家。#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
Risk assets are cautiously positioned in the short term. Once interest rate expectations continue to rise, assets valued based on future cash flows will face pressure first. The rebound in gold and crypto may not strengthen independently of macro pricing.
The significance of this divergence lies not in interest rates remaining unchanged, but in the presence of three dissenting votes calling for a rate hike within the same decision. The rise in long-term US Treasury yields and the noticeable drop in the Dow indicate that capital is already starting to pay again for higher and more prolonged elevated rates.
The market is now betting that inflation will not follow the rate cut script. If the PCE is hotter than expected, the September rate hike expectations will continue to rise. Growth stocks and high-volatility assets will face not just a single candlestick but an upward shift in valuation discount rates. If the data cools down, this round of tightening trades will breathe a sigh of relief first.
The focus is on whether core inflation continues to decline and whether US Treasury yields will further rise after the data. Until interest rate expectations reverse, the rebound looks more like a trading opportunity rather than a restored risk appetite.
The above is only a personal opinion shared and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are at your own risk.The wind direction has changed. The air pressure suddenly dropped, and the wind speed fell sharply from 15 meters per second to 5 meters—the prey is starting to slow down.
Microsoft's earnings report is like me lurking for three hours and finally seeing the target enter the firing range. Revenue hit 90.01 billion, Azure surged 43%, breaking the 100 billion revenue mark. But what really put my finger on the trigger was the trajectory correction line ignored by the market: the FY2027 capital expenditure guidance was lowered for the first time. Other giants like Meta and Google are still wildly consuming ammunition (spending), but Microsoft has already started to holster the gun and reload.
Do you smell it? This is the first commander in the AI arms race to signal an "economic shot." Other troops (Big Tech) are still mindlessly spraying bullets, consuming massive ammunition (hundreds of billions in capital expenditure), only to be hit by stray bullets (stock price plummets). Microsoft? Spending less ammo, hitting higher targets (profits), with its stock price jumping 8.5% in after-hours trading. This is the discipline of a top sniper: without a perfect profit-loss ratio, never pull the trigger.
But don’t be fooled by a single shot. Looking at the big picture: capital expenditure still surged 70% year-over-year to 41 billion, and the year-to-date stock price is still down 18.5%. This shot was just a reconnaissance shot—to verify whether AI can really deliver results. So far, the bullet hit, but the trajectory is a bit shaky.
Now look at the target XIWM. This asset is like our sniper team's backup observer, always following the main trajectory’s deviation. Once Microsoft’s "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" signal was sent, the market immediately repriced the capital allocation in the AI industry chain: the previously money-burning hardware stacking logic was questioned, while the higher-margin software application layer began to be targeted again. XIWM, as a reflection of the AI software and hardware integrated ecosystem, will no longer simply follow Bitcoin’s macro wind direction but will be driven more by micro profit expectations.
Now, I hold my breath, index finger hovering at a critical point. The observed correction wind bias has been recorded, trajectory calculations completed. I’m not betting on whether AI will win; I’m waiting for that definite profit-loss ratio—when MSFT’s profit wind completely blows away the "AI no results" shadow, that’s when I pull the trigger.
Until then, stay hidden. Bullets, always loaded.The current direction of the Federal Reserve's policy has clearly tilted towards at least one more rate hike within the year. As for whether a rate hike will be implemented before the election, it remains to be seen and will be monitored continuously. From the perspective of crypto and risk assets, the overall environment is indeed bearish.
Although the interest rate was maintained this time, three internal members directly voted against keeping rates unchanged, showing a clear rise in hawkish voices. Waller also explicitly reiterated that 2% is the sole inflation target, and if inflation rebounds, rate hike tools will be used. The market probability of a rate hike in September has already risen significantly.
The prolonged duration of high interest rates and expectations of tightening liquidity will continue to suppress stocks and risk assets like crypto. At this stage, the fundamental pressure is indeed considerable. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 📊 On-chain analyst perspective: $ETH Real-time market analysis
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📈 Support and resistance level assessment
Currently, ETH is in a recovery phase after a rebound from a low point, with the price repeatedly bouncing near key areas. Short-term pressure is concentrated in the 1920-1940 range, which is suppressed by both the 100-day moving average and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Selling pressure near the previous high of 1935 is clear, indicating a high-pressure range. If the breakout is broken through with high volume and holds steady, the upper target could be the 1982-2000 range.
Support below is first focused on the 1876-1885 area, which is a key defensive line at the lower boundary of the rising wedge. If this level is breached, bears will take over the market, with the lower target targeting 1850-1820. More core support is in the 1800-1830 range. Total contract open interest across the network decreased by 5.03% in the past 24 hours, with total current holdings at $25.778 billion. Leverage is being cleared, and volatility could increase at any time.
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🐋 Market maker movements on the chain
The gap between long and short whales is obvious. On the Hyperliquid platform, whales hold a total of $4.798 billion, with long positions accounting for 49.15% and short positions 50.85%, with a long-short ratio of 0.97, which is nearly balanced. However, the overall loss on long positions was $111 million, while the profit from short positions was $45.26 million—the bears temporarily held the upper hand. It is worth noting that whale addresses 0xb83d: 36 went 5x cross-margin on $ETH at the 1869.42 price level, currently losing $2.74 million. If the price continues to rise, a stop-loss may be triggered to close the position, forming a short-term buying boost.
On the other hand, bottom-fishing funds are entering the market. Some whales have cumulatively bought and withdrawn 80,219 ETH from Kraken over the past five days, worth about $166.76 million, dispersing and transferring them across multiple addresses. The number of addresses holding 1,000-10,000 ETH rebounded from about 4,750 in early June to nearly 4,850, with whales favoring gradual accumulation at yearly lows rather than chasing highs. The ETH/BTC exchange inflow ratio has dropped significantly, and holders' relative selling pressure is weakening.
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✅ Positive factors
🔹 ETF Consecutive Net Inflows: Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 19 consecutive days, with BlackRock ETHA having a single-day net inflow of $20.29 million yesterday. Total net assets reached $10.369 billion, accounting for 4.56% of total market value.
🔹 Network activity erupted: weekly transaction volume reached 18.7 million, hitting a record high, fees dropped to a historic low of $0.008, and the number of non-empty wallets surpassed 200 million for the first time.
🔹 Stable developer ecosystem: In the past 30 days, there were about 263,300 developer events, ranking first among all public chains. The foundation appointed security expert PCAVERSACCIO as the fourth board member, strengthening its focus on security and privacy.
🔹 Whales continue to accumulate shares: In addition to the above, whales withdrew 60,800 ETH from Binance within 30 hours, and new wallets increased their holdings by about 50,000 ETH in mid-July.
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❌ Bearish factors
🔻 ETF outflows overall: Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $32.9 million, and this week saw a net outflow of $161 million, marking four consecutive weeks of net outflows. Fidelity's FETH outflow of $16.1 million in a single day was the main reason.
🔻 Macroeconomic pressure: The FOMC kept rates unchanged at 9:3, but saw the first "triple hawk" since 2016—three Fed chairs called for rate hikes. The probability of a rate hike in September rose to 63.2%, while the Dow Jones fell 2.18% and the Nasdaq 1.7%, dampening risk appetite.
🔻 Geopolitical Turmoil: The US-Iran ceasefire broke down after just four days, Brent crude returned above $90, and geopolitical premiums suppressed risk assets.
🔻 Foundation funding concerns: Former contributors warn Ethereum may face a "slow-burning capital crisis." In the first half of the year, a loss of $332 million was due to security incidents. The possibility of three consecutive quarters of declines remains.
🔻 Core Contradiction: Network activity and all-time low gas fees coexist—ecosystem activity has failed to drive ETH prices higher, while Layer 2 network migration and stablecoin usage pose challenges to ETH's value growth.
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🎯 Summary
$ETH The market is in a consolidating pattern between 1876 and 1940, with bulls and bears tugging near key levels. On-chain signals are mixed—whales are both short sellers and large-scale accumulations, and ETFs have both continuous net inflows and short-term outflows. Macro factors (rate hike expectations + geopolitical risks) suppress short-term risk appetite, but whales accumulating at low levels and improving network fundamentals provide medium-term support. The choice of direction depends on whether 1876 can hold and whether 1940 can be broken. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, but the stock plunge sparked controversy between two camps In the past seven days, crypto ETF funds have shown a clear divergence: $BTC ETFs have continued net outflows, while $ETH ETFs have maintained net inflows, which is the most direct signal of institutional capital rebalancing right now.
BTC spot ETFs saw a weekly net outflow of over $460 million, not just a single day of fluctuation, but a series of consecutive days of trending retreats; Among them, IBIT, BlackRock's largest stock, was the main selling force, while its ETH spot ETF (ETHA) continued to attract funds, serving as the main driver of this round of ETH inflows.
As a leading global crypto ETF manager, BlackRock's capital movements basically represent the mainstream institutional allocation approach. Currently, it is essentially reducing BTC holdings and increasing ETH positions, making relative position switching between the two.
In an overall cautious market sentiment environment, ETH can still attract sustained ETF buying, with short-term institutional support clearly stronger than BTC. However, this is only a temporary capital preference in the near term; medium- to long-term trends still require ongoing data verification.#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
#Not raising rates is scarier than raising them, Dow plunges over 1100 points
Last night the Fed announced its decision: no rate change, the fifth consecutive time holding steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. The vote was 9 to 3, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting, all demanding a 25 basis point hike.
Waller’s rhetoric was quite sharp, summed up in one sentence: if inflation rises again, we will raise rates at any time. The market panicked after hearing this, with the Dow plummeting over 1100 points in the final session, Nasdaq down 1.74%, S&P down 1.52%, semiconductor sector down over 5%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down more than 11% over four consecutive days, Micron Technology down 10%, Nvidia down 3.55%.
Trump came out saying Waller wants to cut rates, but was blocked by the committee’s politicians. Waller himself said inflation has lasted 63 months, and he’s only been in office 8 and a half weeks, so it’s impossible to fix it quickly. What he’s actually doing is outsourcing the “tightening function” to the market—the Fed stays silent, the market scares itself, and long-term rates rise on their own. The 30-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.2%, the first time since 2007.
After watching all this, what does it have to do with us retail investors? Waller has scrapped all the “expectation management” tactics, so no one knows what the Fed intends anymore; it all depends on the data. The only certainty is uncertainty itself. Whether there will be a hike in September is unknown; the stock market just falls first and talks later. Turning off the phone, not thinking about it. Thinking too much about these things is pointless; better to think about what to have for lunch today. Not raising rates is scarier than raising them, so let’s just not watch for now. Is Bitcoin $BTC really prone to a sharp drop in August?
Looking back at the monthly data from the past 13 years, there were nine years when the market closed lower in August, with a decline probability of about 70%. There's also a strong pattern: whenever there is a decline in July of that year, the downward trend almost always continues in August.
Looking at the halving cycle, many market views suggest that August 2026 to January 2027 will most likely be the period of the current bull market's major bottoming, which is a key point for many traders.
Combined with the Federal Reserve's high interest rate environment and the historical pattern of seasonal weakening, the pressure of a correction in August is indeed significant.Earnings season hits a make-or-break night, and this time even a beat might not be enough.
Tesla, Intel and Alphabet all posted solid numbers and still got sold off, purely on AI spending fears. Alphabet beat expectations and dropped anyway. The Nasdaq 100 has since slipped into a technical correction, and short sellers are now piling into Meta, Amazon and Microsoft right before they report. The market is leaning bearish going in.
Microsoft and Meta report after Wednesday's US close, with Amazon right behind. Here's the setup:
· Microsoft: Azure guided to 39-40% growth, but 2026 capex is running near $190B, with over $40B in a single quarter
· Meta: revenue seen jumping about 27% to $60B, with capex guidance ballooning to $125-145B. It's also the cheapest name in the group at about 18x forward earnings
· Amazon: EPS eyed near $1.85, AWS growth and margins in focus
Zoom out and the number is staggering. Together with Alphabet, these giants are set to spend roughly $724B on capex this year, and nearly $950B in 2027. Investors want proof all that cash is turning into revenue, not just bigger data center bills. One soft cloud number could reset the entire AI trade.
The market is bracing for fireworks. Options are pricing swings of roughly 8% for Meta and 7% for Microsoft and Amazon on these prints. Microsoft alone could move nearly $189B in value on a single report, more than the market cap of most companies on earth.
Here's the catch: all of this lands after the US close, when traditional markets are shut. On OKX, tokenized US stocks like $XMSFT , $XMETA and $XAMZN trade 24/7, so you can react the moment the numbers hit instead of waiting for the next session to open.
If one of these swings 8% after hours, while traditional markets are still shut, do you jump on the move right away, or wait for the dust to settle?
#BigTechEarningsNight
#DailyOrbit The core conclusion of today's global markets is: risk appetite has clearly weakened, and pressure is spreading from tech stocks to a broader range of assets. **Although the Fed has not raised interest rates, it has also not sent clear easing signals; Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have flared up again, with oil prices surging in a single day, reigniting concerns over inflation and long-term interest rates. The three major U.S. stock indices all declined, chip stocks remained the hardest-hit market, while BTC remained weak and fluctuating around $64,000. Today, the most important market variable will shift from the Federal Reserve meeting to U.S. GDP, PCE inflation, and earnings reports from Apple and Amazon. 1. What happened overnight? 1. The Fed keeps rates unchanged, but internal rate differences widen Fact: The Fed's July meeting kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged, but 3 out of 12 voting members supported rate hikes. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh continued to emphasize the determination to bring inflation back to 2%, while not providing clear guidance on subsequent interest rates. The interest rate market currently expects about a 55% chance of a rate hike in September. Market reaction: The dollar fell about 0.5% after the meeting, but long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 30-year yield briefly climbing above 5.2%. U.S. stocks did not interpret "keeping interest rates unchanged" as positive news; instead, they extended their losses after the meeting. Underlying logic: The market's real concern is not whether there will be a rate hike this time, but rather the Federal Reserve's silence on future policies while the number of people internally supporting rate hikes increases. This means: short-term interest rates remain unchanged for now + long-term inflation risks remainThe market has been down all day, but the real brutal sell-off hasn't started yet.
Because the machines haven't let go.
Trend-following CTA funds don't look at earnings reports, valuations, or whether you believe in Nvidia—they only recognize one line: the 200-day moving average. If it breaks below, the model flips from "fully long" to "lining up to short" with one click, selling more as prices fall, and prices fall more as they sell.
The current situation is delicate:
· The Nasdaq $QQQ has already fallen below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages—the faster-moving machines have already started selling today
· But the big machine that would trigger a stampede still has its trigger stuck at 644 (just 2.7% away from the current price)
· The S&P, Russell, and Dow still have a thick cushion of 4% to 9% above their respective 200-day moving averages; none of their long-term trends have broken
So far, this drop is being carried by tech alone; it hasn't become a market-wide event yet.
Remember the number 644. It doesn't care if you're bullish or bearish; it only decides when the machines will let go.How outrageous is Samsung's financial report?
Q2 operating profit was about 89.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of more than 19 times, almost profiting heavily from price hikes in AI, HBM, and storage.
And what happened?
Stock prices should fall or fall.
Previously, the market was:
Earnings report exceeded expectations→ funds rushed to buy immediately.
The current market is:
Earnings report beats expectations → Let's see if it can get even better;
If growth is not fast enough, → decline;
Capital expenditure is too high, → falls;
Futures guidance is slightly conservative→ still down.
Funds are not worried about Samsung's current lack of profit, but about how long storage price hikes can last, whether aggressive expansion will lead to oversupply, and whether Chinese manufacturers will start competing for profits.
The market no longer pays for "good earnings" but votes on whether "the future can continue to be good."
This may be the most dangerous recent change in global tech stocks. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, but the stock plunge sparked controversy between two camps The Sui Foundation mainnet JSON-RPC service will gradually be phased out, and future developers will need to migrate to gRPC or GraphQL RPC.
Let's start with the conclusion:
Short term: Bearish sentiment may cause panic among those unfamiliar with the situation.
Long-term: This is actually a positive outcome, reflecting the maturity of SUI's infrastructure.
The reasons are as follows:
1. This is not Sui shutting down services, but a technical upgrade
Many people misunderstand when they see "stop JSON-RPC":
❌ Sui is about to die
❌ Nodes have decreased
❌ The chain stopped running
Actually, no.
JSON-RPC is a way for developers to access blockchain data.
Previously, many chains used JSON-RPC, for example in checking balances, transaction records, and calling contracts.
But as the chain scales up, older interfaces may appear:
Insufficient data efficiency
Limited concurrency capability
Poor support for large applications
So Sui is driving developers to migrate to:
✅ gRPC
✅ GraphQL RPC
These are better suited for:
Games
Large-scale Web3 applications
High-frequency trading
Social applications
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2. Why do I think the long term is a good thing?
Because Sui's goal is not to be a "niche chain."
It aims to compete for:
Large-scale user applications in the future.
If there are only a few hundred thousand users in the future, the old interface will be sufficient.
But if the goal is:
Hundreds of millions of users' games, financial applications, social platforms,
Then infrastructure must be upgraded.
Like:
A small company can use regular servers.
But to become a global enterprise, you must upgrade your databases and architecture.
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3. What impact does it have on SUI prices?
Short-term:
Some people might panic and sell when they see the news.
The market may include:
"Is something wrong?"
This emotional impact.
But this is not fundamental deterioration.
What truly affects SUI's long-term price is:
Several core questions:
✅ Has the number of users grown?
✅ Has the DeFi ecosystem expanded?
✅ Has the gaming ecosystem exploded?
✅ Whether developers continue to enter the market
✅ Can SUI capture market share?
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Looking at 2030: SUI wants to reach a very high price, it needs to meet the following requirements:
It has become one of the top public chains
Its market value ranks among the top globally
There are a large number of real users
$35 isn't achieved through hype, but requires ecosystem scale support.
This upgrade message itself:
I believe:
Short-term: 3/10 (may cause panic)
Long-term: 8/10 (Infrastructure maturity)
The real danger is:
"Stop development."
And what we see now is:
"Upgrade the development interface."
These two are completely different.
In short:
This is not a signal of SUI's downward trajectory; it is more like closing old toll stations before a highway expansion and replacing them with more advanced systems.
SUI will reach $35 by 2030Is the 25-year-old AI stock god also losing money? Situational Awareness seeks new capital injections; founder urges investors to "seize buying opportunities"
BlockBeats reported on July 30 that according to the Financial Times, the AI-themed hedge fund Situational Awareness, founded by 25-year-old Wall Street rising AI tech expert and former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, is seeking new capital injections. After a recent sharp pullback in AI-related stocks, this fund—known for its high concentration in betting on the AI industry chain—has suffered significant losses and is now replenishing capital through investor communication and potential asset sales.
Situational Awareness was founded in 2024, with investment logic based on Aschenbrenner's judgment of the accelerated arrival of AGI. The fund's size once reached about $20 billion, with a net return as high as 439% as of June 2026, making it one of the most watched star funds in this AI market. Its holdings cover companies related to AI infrastructure and computing chains such as Oracle, AMD, Nebius, and Sharon AI, and uses leverage to amplify positions.
However, AI trading has cooled rapidly recently, with significant volatility in South Korea's KOSPI, Nasdaq 100, and several AI infrastructure stocks, and Situational Awareness also being swept up in drawdowns. The report states that Aschenbrenner acknowledged increased market volatility in recent investor communications, described it as a new investment opportunity, and encouraged investors to put in new funds before August 1.
This fundraising event also became a landmark event after the wave of AI capital spending deals faded. Over the past year, the market has been willing to pay high valuations for computing power, chips, power, and cloud infrastructure; As tech stocks deepen their pullback, funds are beginning to re-examine the AI industry chain's return cycle, leverage risk, and position crowding. Situational Awareness remains betting on long-term AI trends, including follow-up opportunities such as Anthropic's potential IPO, but in the short term, the market's tolerance for highly volatile AI assets has clearly declined.
Notably, the 13F filing previously disclosed by Situational Awareness did contain a significant amount of put options. Its Q1 holdings show that the fund holds PUT positions in major semiconductor and AI chain stocks such as SMH, Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom, AMD, TSMC, and Micron, with a large nominal exposure. This structure was once interpreted by the market as a relative value trade of "going long on AI infrastructure while hedging the pullback of large chip stocks."
But putting options do not mean the fund can completely avoid losses. 13F discloses the nominal size of the underlying option and does not disclose premium, strike price, expiration date, or delta, so the actual protection may be much lower than the surface figure. Meanwhile, the 13F snapshot only shows holdings as of March 31. By the time AI stocks pulled back sharply in July, related PUT positions may have been closed, rolled, or reduced, so external investors cannot judge the current hedging status based solely on the Q1 report.
More importantly, the fund's previously heavy long positions were concentrated in a batch of highly volatile AI infrastructure stocks. Stocks such as Bloom Energy, SanDisk, CoreWeave, IREN, Core Scientific, Applied Digital, Riot, and CleanSpark all have core logic related to AI data centers, power, storage, GPU cloud, and mining companies transforming computing power. These stocks are highly resilient during AI capital expenditure upcycles, but once the market begins to question AI investment returns, financing conditions, and customer demand, their declines often outpace those of traditional large chip stocks.$VORF / $threehalves — When operating with the same dev with even numbers, VORF traces on the chain cannot be hidden
🕵️ The same dev 65uAUzm sent two VORFs in pump.fun. V1 reached $5.19M MCap, dev has cleared their positions, and cluster data shows the top 100 holdings are concentrated at 99.98%, with 85.67% from the same funding source—clear signs with strong market control. Meanwhile, V2 ($238K MCap) holds 79.73% of the chips with a bundle rate of 84.05%, and Smart Money 3 wallets simultaneously loaded at $55. Twin strategy: one paves the way, the other ambushes.
💰 Threehalves is more active on-chain today. $207K MCap carried $1.33M in 24-hour turnover, 1,192 token-holding addresses, and 1-hour transactions totaled $341K. Smart money signals are mixed—some have taken profits at 57%, some have exited with full positions, but prices are still fluctuating at +7.36% highs. The volume-price structure at this level indicates that some are buying, but whether it's real gold or trading depends on the degree of volume decline.
□ "I BUY SILVER AND GOLD" is freshly made, $3K MCap, 13 holders, and comes with a set of official website/Telegram/X accessories. dev history is clean (1/0 rug), with only 1 bundler and a related amount of 0. In the early stages of social coins, bonding is still climbing at 34%.
Shadow's judgment: VORF's even-number pattern is worth a watchlist—V1 has already surged 65,000%. If devs want to rerun V2, the bundle unlock + community FOMO window may be around the bonding curve completion. Threehalves carries considerable risk of high volume growth; chasing the highs is better than waiting for pullbacks to confirm support. IBSG is purely observing; wait until more than half of bonding is over half before seeing whether devs withdraw from the pool.
#暗影萨满 #聪明钱 #链上猎手#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
Microsoft rose 8.5% after hours, while Meta fell nearly 7% after hours. Same day earnings reports, same market, completely opposite reactions.
Microsoft delivered a textbook-level earnings report: revenue of $90.01 billion, up 18% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected $87.7 billion. Azure cloud revenue grew 43%, marking the fastest quarterly growth since early 2022. For the first time, Azure's annual revenue surpassed $100 billion, becoming the second cloud service provider after AWS to reach this milestone.
But what really excited the market was not the revenue, but the capital expenditure. Microsoft cut its fiscal 2027 capital expenditure forecast from $190 billion to $175 billion. Alphabet was hammered 7% for raising spending, Meta fell 7% after hours for raising spending—Microsoft is the first to actively hit the brakes.
① Why does Microsoft dare to hit the brakes?
It's not because AI demand is insufficient, but because demand is too strong—Azure's growth rate accelerated from 40% to 43%, and it is expected to accelerate to 45% next quarter. When your cloud business has an annualized growth rate exceeding 40% and annual revenue breaks $100 billion, you have the confidence to say "burning less money can still win."
Part of Microsoft's capital expenditure cut is also an accounting adjustment—extending the lifespan of data centers and office buildings from 15 years to 25 years. This calculation is smart: it does not reduce the actual physical scale of investment but looks more restrained on the financial statements. Essentially, it responds to market anxiety: if you fear money burning, then I will just report less.
② AI monetization is accelerating
Microsoft 365 Copilot paid users have surpassed 30 million, up from 20 million three months ago. More than 300,000 enterprise customers have purchased Copilot services, and over 90% of the Fortune 500 companies are using some form of Copilot.
CEO Nadella said something worth re-reading: "Demand continues to exceed available capacity, and this supply-demand imbalance is not expected to ease in the short term." Azure's annual revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, Copilot users exceeded 30 million, and cloud business backlog contracts reached $678 billion—these data indicate one thing: AI is not burning money, it is exchanging money.
③ The "fire and ice" of the same night
Meta's earnings report is not bad either—revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations. But net profit was $15.8 billion, down 14% year-over-year, far below the expected $18.5 billion. At the same time, it raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance. The market sees: earning less, spending more.
Microsoft sees: earning more, spending less. Two directions, two pricing strategies.
④ Transmission to the crypto market
Microsoft's downward revision of capital expenditure expectations temporarily alleviates anxiety about "AI burning money without limits," and the recovery of tech stock sentiment will indirectly transmit to the crypto market. But a more noteworthy signal is: AI is shifting from "burning money for growth" to "spending money prudently." When the largest cloud service provider starts controlling the pace of capital expenditure, the "infinite narrative" of storage chip demand may need to be reconsidered.
Microsoft has proven one thing: AI money can be earned back, but it does not need to be burned without restraint. This may be the most important turning point in the current AI narrative. $MSFT $META Iran's move has indeed pushed the situation back to the edge of danger ⚠️
Last weekend, the US and Iran failed to launch a crackdown for two consecutive nights, prompting the market to treat it as a "ceasefire" trade, causing crude oil to plunge more than 5% in a single day.
But none of the battlefield problems were solved.
Navigation volume in the Strait of Hormuz remains very low, and the Mandeb Strait is once again threatened by a Houthi blockade and attacks. The U.S. pause in firing does not mean oil shipments have resumed, nor does it mean the war is over.
Sure enough, just a few days later, Iran again launched missiles at U.S. targets, followed by airstrikes by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia against Iran-backed militants. Brent crude oil immediately surged 6.7%, climbing back above $87 📈
As for whether this pause is meant to create a low oil price environment for the FOMC, I have no evidence and dare not write solid evidence.
But this timing was indeed too coincidental.
As soon as oil prices fell, the market began trading for inflation easing; Once the FOMC ended, the fighting could escalate again. Whether there was cooperation between political negotiations and financial markets was hard for outsiders to know.
As of press time, the mainstream market expectation remains that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, with rate hikes being a secondary scenario, and almost no one is betting on rate cuts.
After oil prices rose again, the Fed faced even greater troubles:
If tightening continues, high-valuation tech stocks and the semiconductor sector, which has already begun deleveraging, will suffer even harder; Keeping interest rates unchanged means bearing the risk of energy prices pushing inflation up again.
It's not at the point where "rate hikes mean financial crisis, if not, the US dollar is doomed," but it's becoming increasingly difficult to choose 🤦♂️
What worries me more is that both sides are constantly testing each other's limits.
The U.S. wants to restore navigation in the strait but is unwilling to pay the price of a prolonged ground war; Iran holds the energy transportation card in its hand and knows that the longer it drags on, the higher the military, financial, and political costs for the U.S. will be.
In this case, low-intensity consumption is actually easier to sustain than a quick finish.
As for nuclear weapons, they remain a very low-probability tail risk, with no public evidence that the U.S. is prepared to use them. But once a nuclear power believes conventional means cannot achieve their goals, the risks of misjudgment and escalation cannot be completely ignored.
The probability may be low, but no one can afford the consequences.
The market has been torn to the bone by this repeatedly bouncing war:
$BTC returned to around 63.6K, $ETH fell to around $1625; Gold also failed to recover from the expected safe-haven rally and instead remained relatively weak.
What is most feared now is not unilateral negative news, but a ceasefire today and a war starting tomorrow, with oil prices and risk assets pulling people back and forth.
Let's hope for world peace.
Only when you're good, I'm good, everyone is well, that's what truly matters 🕊️
$CL $BTC $ETH $XAUCrypto Daily · Thursday, July 30, 2026
1. Today's summary in one sentence
Last night's earnings season crashed in US stocks, dragging down sentiment. After crypto followed the fall, it held firm. BTC was grinding around 64K, and the bulls didn't collapse but lacked confidence.
2. Market thermometer
Neutral and hollow
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.8%, and crypto assets were panting, with trading volume unable to hold up.
3. Today's core market highlights
BTC：$64,385 | 24h +0.96% | The increase is less than 1%, with a volume of $12.2 billion. At this level, it's neither strong nor weak, but it hasn't fallen—it's just a sign of consumption
ETH：$1,916 | 24h +0.52% | It rose nearly 3% over 7 days, but today it clearly underperformed BTC, and ETH's relative weakness has yet to recover
Today's strongest sector: Semiconductor short direction | SOXS | 24h +18.3% (semiconductor stocks hit after last night's earnings report, shorting ETFs flew immediately)
Today's weakest sector: Semiconductor / Technology Stocks Mapping | SOXL (3x Semiconductor ETF)| 24h -17.9%
4. The most important news of the day
[META's earnings beat expectations but EPS declines year-on-year, stock plunges after hours]
[Impact] META's Q2 revenue slightly exceeded expectations at $60.8 billion, but earnings per share dropped significantly to $6.18 from $7.14 in the same period last year. After-hours OI surged and prices fell nearly 7%. Sentiment in tech stocks has been transmitted to the crypto market, suppressing risk appetite in the short term.
[My Judgment] The market reaction was not excessive. The year-on-year decline in EPS is itself a cause for concern. The ceiling in advertising revenue combined with ongoing spending on AI means this is not a quarterly report that should "rise above expectations." Short-term bearish.
[ARM Holdings' earnings report exceeds expectations across the board, Q2 guidance also beats expectations]
[Impact] ARM Q1 EPS $0.45 vs. expected 0.40, revenue $1.29 billion vs. expected $1.26 billion, Q2 guidance also exceeded market forecasts. There is strong demand for AI chip architectures, and ARM is the most direct beneficiary of this wave.
[My Judgment] This news was overshadowed by META's collapse, and the market did not respond enough. ARM's data shows that demand for AI computing power remains; it's not that the entire tech sector is collapsing, but that the advertising monetization line is under pressure. Mid-term high yield.
[Binance.US Plan to Apply to the CFTC for a Designated Contract Market License]
[Impact] Binance.US Obtaining the CFTC license would mean substantial progress in the compliance process, which would be a structural positive for the entire crypto derivatives market.
[My Judgment] The news is true, but it still hasn't been fully realized. The CFTC approval cycle is not short, so calling it "positive" now is a bit premature and more like a directional signal. For the medium term, there's no need to get too excited in the short term.
5. Signals to Watch Today
Signal: BTC futures market long positions have a net loss of about $63.38 million, with a long-short ratio of 1.59:1, long positions outnumbered, but PnL is at a loss
Why it's worth watching: Many bulls but losing money means that this rally didn't let most people profit, and the chip structure is fragile; any disturbance can easily be trampled
Tracking cycle: Short-term
Signal: SOXL (3x long semiconductor) fell nearly 18% in a single day, SOXS (short sell) rose over 18%, and sentiment in the semiconductor sector turned sharply
Why it's worth watching: Semiconductors are the core narrative of this AI market. Single-day fluctuations at SOXL levels indicate institutions are rapidly readjusting, and it will depend on how core stocks like Nvidia take the lead
Tracking cycle: Short-term
Signal: Robinhood Q2 crypto revenue $100 million, exceeding expectations by 15%
Why it's worth noting: retail users' crypto trading activity is rebounding, a figure that better reflects retail sentiment than institutional data and is a warmer underlying signal
Tracking cycle: Mid-term
6. Preview of tomorrow's key events
📌 [Tonight at 20:30 Beijing Time] US Q2 preliminary GDP → Expected impact: Neutral to slightly bullish, market expects moderate growth. If it exceeds expectations, risk assets may be briefly boosted, but don't expect BTC to surge as well
📌 [Tonight 20:30 Beijing Time] US initial jobless claims → Expected impact: Neutral. If employment data weakens, it may actually strengthen expectations for rate cuts, which is bullish for crypto in the short term
📌 [Early tomorrow morning] Tech stocks continue earnings reports → Expected impact: bearish risk, uncertainty remains during earnings season, large stocks like Apple have not yet been released, and sentiment could fluctuate at any time
7. Maobidao's views today
To be honest, today's board is a bit boring but not simple. BTC hasn't fallen, but the bulls are still losing money; U.S. earnings reports have exceeded expectations and blown apart, with the market digesting its own contradictions. After watching for a long time, I felt the biggest risk now isn't a single piece of news, but "everyone is waiting"—waiting for GDP, Apple's earnings report, and the Fed's next move. Waiting itself is a kind of stress.