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U.S. Treasury Secretary brought out Satoshi Nakamoto to pressure the Senate
On July 30, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted a lengthy message on X.
The ending quotes Satoshi Nakamoto's own words:
“If you don‘t believe me or don’t get it, I don‘t have time to try to convince you, sorry.”
The current Treasury Secretary, quoting the Bitcoin founder on social media, pressured the Senate to vote.
This has never happened before in the history of crypto regulation.
What did Bessent say?
Translated into plain language, it's just three sentences:
First, the House passed it with 294 votes over a year ago, and the Senate Banking Committee passed it in May. Bipartisan staff talked for thousands of hours—what are you waiting for?
Second, Democrats are afraid to vote because they fear Elizabeth Warren and her "anti-crypto army." "Choosing politics in the face of major victories."
Third, how did the United States become a global financial center? It depends on leading the way in setting standards during technological transformation, not on hesitation.
Then he threw out Satoshi Nakamoto's famous line—'You don't understand, I don't have time to convince you, sorry.'
But no matter how ruthless Bessent is, it can't change two realities:
Reality One: Seven Democratic senators openly opposed it.
Cortez Masto、Alsobrooks、Booker、Gallego、Hickenlooper、Warner、Warnock。
They say the bill is "insufficient" in ethics, consumer protection, and illegal finance.
Where exactly is the bottleneck?
Ethical clauses.
The new bill prohibits the President, Vice President, members of Congress, federal officials, and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets for compensation while in office.
This is called the "Trump Clause" — because the Trump family is expected to earn over $1.2 billion from crypto by 2025.
Democrats say: ban only until 2029? All enforcement authority goes to the Ministry of Justice? Doesn't care about the officials' children? Not enough.
The Republicans said: This is already the strictest federal ethical rule we have ever proposed.
Neither side backed down.
Reality Two: Senate Majority Leader Thune has already said—no full vote will be scheduled before the August 7 recess.
Why?
Next, the Senate must first pass the sanctions bill against Russia and attend the funeral of the late Senator Graham.
That's all there is to the schedule, CLARITY can't get a spot.
White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt also said there is "room for maneuver in the first week of August."
Big brother, Thune is the leader of the majority party, and he decides the schedule. You say there's space, but where is the space?
How does the market view it?
The probability of the "CLARITY Act signed into law by 2026" on Polymarket—
Year-to-start peak of 82%.
Mid-July: 38%.
Now it's 28%.
From 82% to 28%, a drop of 54 percentage points.
JPMorgan stated directly: The longer the bill is delayed, the greater the threat to the crypto market.
Bitcoin is now just over $63,000, nearly half down from this year's high of $126,000.
Market sentiment is "extremely fearful."
To end harshly—
Bessent brought out Satoshi Nakamoto.
But the fate of the bill is not decided by Bitcoin's creator, but by those seven Democratic senators.
A 616-page bill stuck on the issue of "whether the president can issue currency."
The Trump family made $1.2 billion from crypto.
The Democrats say, "You earn too much, we can't trust you."
The Republicans said, "The terms can be changed, but the vote must be arranged first."
Both sides are acting, and you, the one holding the position, pay the price.
Resumption in September, with the 60-vote threshold still in place. If it drags on until autumn, it will coincide with the midterm elections—then no one will care about you.
Satoshi Nakamoto said he had no time to convince those who didn't believe it.
But does the market have time to wait?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 The Truth Behind SpaceX's Halving: What’s Sold in the IPO Is a Dream, What’s Sold After Unlocking Are Real Shares
After SpaceX went public, an extremely absurd scene unfolded. Starship test flights were increasingly successful, Starlink users kept growing, the company secured a $1.6 billion contract with the U.S. Space Force, yet the stock price plummeted from a high of $225 all the way down to $108, nearly halving.
Many suspected that SpaceX was being collectively manipulated by Wall Street. But the harsher conclusion is that this decline is a liquidation of the scarcity illusion created on SpaceX’s IPO day.
SpaceX’s issue price was $135, closing at $161 on the first day, and a few days later reaching $225, with the company’s market cap once approaching $3 trillion. The truly tradable shares were less than 5% of the total shares. Retail investors were scrambling, index funds were buying, on-chain funds were also competing, and tokenized SpaceX shares traded nearly $1.2 billion, accounting for over 30% of all tokenized stock volume that month. The supply was so scarce it was almost sold out; any buy order could push the price up.
But after going public, everything started to reverse. Stock lending became easier, options began trading, and short sellers increased rapidly. By late July, lent shares once approached 56% of the free float. Meanwhile, Nasdaq index funds and ARK kept buying but still couldn’t stop the price decline. This shows SpaceX’s real problem was no longer a lack of buyers but that its valuation was starting to face reality.
Because today’s SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company; it includes the profitable Starlink, the heavily invested Starship, and the newly integrated xAI. In Q1, Starlink users reached 10.3 million, with connectivity business generating nearly $1.2 billion in operating profit, looking like a money-printing machine. But in the same quarter, xAI only made over $800 million in revenue, yet operating losses reached $2.5 billion, with capital expenditures close to $7.7 billion. Starlink is printing money, while xAI and Starship are like two large cash-burning furnaces.
So the first earnings report on August 4th will show that revenue is just the surface. The real focus is whether Starlink’s per-user revenue can stop declining after user growth, whether xAI’s losses narrow as revenue grows, and whether the quarterly capital expenditure of over $10 billion has an end. This report might even produce the most awkward result: revenue far exceeding expectations but cash flow looking even worse.
Then, two days later, the real highlight arrives. About 910 million internal shares will be unlocked, which at current prices equals nearly $100 billion, about 1.4 times the initial public float at SpaceX’s IPO. Unlocking doesn’t mean everyone will sell, but employees and early investors who have waited many years finally gain liquidity; even if only one-tenth choose to sell, that would add over 90 million shares to the market supply.
This is why even a good earnings report may not directly reverse the trend. Earnings determine how much the market is willing to pay; unlocking determines how much supply the market needs to absorb. What looks like a super positive could actually make the market more cautious. Because what SpaceX shareholders fear most is never whether the two companies have synergy—one company making money, the others burning cash, and then tying them together through related-party transactions. For ordinary shareholders, this kind of imagination space sometimes results not in a premium but a governance discount.
So the future trend of SpaceX can be summed up in one sentence: earnings determine cash flow, unlocking determines supply, and merger rumors determine governance discount.
SpaceX’s rockets can still fly to space, but its stock has shifted from a scarce auction to a harsh cash flow judgment. Whether around $100 becomes the bottom ultimately depends on whether the money Starlink earns can truly stay in the hands of SpaceX shareholders. $SPCX #SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 I'm Ci Ge. The 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.27%, the highest since 2007. After the 2019 ceiling was broken, the market is fiercely debating whether this is the top or a new starting point.
JPMorgan Chase took the lead, moving up its Fed rate hike forecast from the second half of 2027 to December this year, and raising its 10-year yield forecast for the end of 2026 to 4.85% and the 30-year yield to 5.40%. The judgment of a new starting point was confirmed in the form of a target position. Two other variables act as a reverse pull: the return of the US and Iran to the negotiating table caused oil prices to plunge more than 7% in a single day, and the strongest pillar driving inflation expectations this round began to loosen; The U.S.-Japan joint exchange exchange protection introduces technical variables. If Japan sells U.S. Treasuries to raise intervention funds, it will push up long-term yields, but Besen's famous FIMA repo tool allows Japan to obtain US dollars without selling bonds, cushioning the potential pressure on U.S. Treasuries. With rate hikes priced upward, oil price expectations downward, and financing interventions yet to be determined, the 30-year term remains the valuation anchor for risk assets at around 5.3% in August.
The impact on BTC is divided into two layers. In the short term, the surge in long-term interest rates directly suppresses risk asset valuations, putting pressure on BTC as a high-beta product. Rising U.S. Treasury yields mean the dollar's relative attractiveness is increasing, with some funds flowing back from risk assets back into the bond market. If yields continue to rise, BTC may test previous lows. In the medium term, the fact that the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high is itself a signal. When the world's safest asset begins to offer risk-free returns above 5%, it means the cost of holding US dollar credit is rising. If rising interest rates continue to backfire on economic growth, the logic of dollar credit depletion will ultimately strengthen demand for non-sovereign assets.
Whether 5.3% is the top or a new starting point will determine the valuation anchor for risk assets in August. The bond market has already sent a signal; now let's see how the stock market responds.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? $BTC $ETH $SNDK They are all waiting for the stress test report of the load-bearing wall—four earnings reports, four steel beams, deciding whether the height of this skyscraper in the market will continue to extend upward or break at the waist.
Wall Street's blueprints are filled with golden ratios, but true architects only look at three things: beam and column cross-sections, concrete grades, and the structural calculation book at the bottom of the blueprint. Last week, the revenue reports delivered by the four giant columns all met "standards," but the market voted in four directions for one reason only: the guidance for the next quarter—that is, the load test for this building over the next twelve months.
Microsoft's record single-day market value increase is because its blueprint drew an additional shear wall—the slope of cloud computing is still climbing. Amazon's steel structure has built a composite truss of advertising and AWS. Meta's ultra-clear glass curtain wall facade suddenly added three diagonal braces—the capital expenditure guidance—the market's panic is not about the investment, but about the lack of a clear return path for the investment. Apple's decline is not a problem with the main structure, but the market questioning its innovation phase: it is still using the previous generation's design language to build a new century's building.
Now, the perspective shifts to the crypto block.
Coinbase's site dropped 18.5%, which is the core tube of a building shaking: trading volume is its only vertical transportation system, and when traffic decreases, there is actually not much physical space inside this "tech company" shell. Robinhood's crypto business fell 40%, which is a temporary model room set up at the sales office entrance; when strong winds come, the model room is the first to collapse. Tether's $150 million profit is the backup generator in the basement, the load-bearing capacity of the underground vault—without publicly disclosed audits, the independent foundation can only be verified by later static load tests.
So my gaze is forced to stop on a main beam: XCH. The project on this block promises a sustainably scalable ecological framework. When cyclical wind loads blow from macro interest rates and earnings season directions, what determines that it is not a rooftop antenna but the overall structural stability is always the foundation raft slab buried deep underground—the real code update frequency of the development team, the redundancy of the miner hashrate supply curve, and the settlement observation data of the number of ecological contributors. Those noisy narratives, listings, and celebrity endorsements are just the patterns of the exterior hanging stone.
This round of US stock market turbulence is like a strong wind experiment; all buildings will undergo the test of vortex street resonance. The size of the stadium is determined by the audience and events, and the height of the skyline is determined by demand and foundation. No skyscraper will survive a magnitude 10 earthquake just because it "looks beautiful."
My surveying pen stops on that contour line. The vibration frequency of the pile driver deep in the crypto site can no longer be detected by Wall Street's noise meters. #earningsweekahead🚨 The biggest risk to crypto right now might not be Bitcoin...
It might be the Japanese yen.
Japan and the U.S. have officially confirmed joint intervention to support the yen, sending USD/JPY tumbling from around 162 to below 156 in a matter of hours. That's no longer market speculation—it's coordinated action.
But here's what most people are missing:
The real issue isn't the exchange rate itself.
It's the massive amount of global capital built on the yen carry trade.
For years, investors have borrowed cheap yen and poured that money into U.S. stocks, Treasuries, and crypto. That flood of low-cost capital has helped fuel risk assets around the world.
If the yen keeps strengthening, that trade starts to unwind.
And when leverage unwinds, liquidity disappears.
That doesn't just affect currencies—it can ripple through BTC, ETH, equities, and bonds.
I'm not saying a crash is coming. But I am watching one combination very closely:
⚠️ A rapidly strengthening yen. ⚠️ Rising U.S. Treasury yields. ⚠️ The Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer.
If all three happen at the same time, global liquidity could tighten much faster than many investors expect.
This isn't just a currency story.
It's a story about where capital flows next.
When the tide goes out, we'll find out which assets were supported by real demand—and which were simply lifted by cheap money.
Just my personal view, not financial advice.
#DailyOrbit #USDJPY #BTC #ETH #Macro #Crypto
#DailyOrbit 美股正处于宏观韧性与流动性收紧的博弈期。
随着美联储缩表持续、RRP缓冲区见底及美债收益率高位震荡，水龙头正在收紧，市场已从“资金驱动”转向“业绩驱动”。估值偏高的板块面临挤水分风险，短期高位震荡加剧，建议聚焦高现金流龙头并防范利率回调冲击。
活着永远都有机会Just came across a set of extremely contradictory data: 📉 July overall: net ETF inflow was only $205 million, the lowest 📉 ever; total outflow from May to June: $6.95 billion, the largest 📉 withdrawal ever; 30-day net ETF outflow: -$2.16 billion 📈. But on July 31: ETF overall turned positive: +3.64K BTC 📈. BlackRock IBIT single-day buys: +2.87K BTC 📈 Fidelity +242 BTC, Bitwise +324 BTC 📈 GBTC zero outflow, institutions are divided, and the market is tearing apart. ⚠️ Risk Points: • 66% long positions on Binance, retail investors crowded and long = easy exposure • Price below MA20 & MA50, technical pattern bearish • $62K is key support; break below $61K • Standard Chartered Bank lowers 2026 target to $150,000, institutional confidence 🎯 shakes My judgment: The first half of August will likely fluctuate between $60K and $66K. Don't go all-in, don't chase highs. The real breakout point is when the ETF resumes sustained inflows + breaking through $66,885 confirms a reversal. If $62K is broken, the next safety cushion is $59K (July 1 low). In short: institutions are bottom-fishing, retail investors are holding positions. Who are you with? What percentage of your BTC position holds? 👇 $BTC Haha, I discovered another highly insightful indicator: BMO to prove my logic for judging cycles!
Currently, it tells me: $BTC has entered the macro contraction zone, but "cheap" does not mean "to the end"!
BMO combines MVRV, VWAP, CVDD, and Sharpe Ratios while observing BTC's valuation, long-term costs, and risk-adjusted returns.
Simply put: the higher the BMO, the more fully the market expansion is complete;
BMO falling into negative territory means both capital returns and valuations are shrinking simultaneously.
Looking back at history:
In 2017, after BMO broke above 2, it peaked and pulled back, and BTC subsequently entered a bear market.
In 2021, BTC prices surged again, but BMO did not hit a new high simultaneously.
While prices are still creating prosperity, macroeconomic momentum has already weakened ahead of time. This divergence is even more deserving of caution than simply looking at new price highs.
The cycle bottoms of 2018 and 2022 both occurred in the deep negative BMO zone.
But here's a detail: BMO's first drop below the zero axis does not mean BTC has bottomed out immediately.
Axis 0 is more like the dividing line between "macro expansion" and "macro contraction."
Falling below zero only indicates the market has shifted from profit expansion to value revaluation; the real bottom usually requires the dulling of negative value zones, panic release, and indicator reversals.
In the current chart, BTC is around $60,000, and BMO is about -0.9. This means: the market has clearly moved away from the cycle top, but negative values alone cannot be used to assert that the final bottom has appeared.
Next, I will focus on three key signals:
BTC dipped again, but BMO no longer hit new lows;
BMO stopped falling in the negative territory, forming a higher low;
BMO has returned to the zero axis, confirming the recovery of macroeconomic expansion.
The most important of these is the first: if the price is lower but BMO does not continue to deteriorate, it indicates valuations are still under pressure, but macro selling momentum has begun to wane.
At this point, you can judge whether the current decline is genuine or if the market has bottomed out and is triggering a bearish inducement. This is often the valuable pre-signal for a period reversal.Issue 3: Wyckoff Theory Review of the 2018 $ETH Accumulation Zone
This was ETH's bottom accumulation zone from late 2018 to Q3 2020, lasting for more than two years. Its accumulation period was longer than BTC at that time, so I used the weekly chart for review.
1: This is an SOT. Its candlestick size is smaller than the previous SC, but the trading volume is larger. This indicates that the main players are absorbing panic-driven selling behaviors in the market at that time. At this point, attention should be paid to the ST that follows.
2: This behavior is very important. You can see that after AR, the pullback and volume decreased, making it a successful ST. However, there was no demand following and pushing the price higher, indicating this was not the buying price favored by the main players. Therefore, it broke below the support it had built with its own hands (the price broke through the supply line, and the previous SC low point would provide brief support). At this level, the public's psychology is also very sensitive and fragile; this support is their last hope, so the break triggered a new round of SC. (Declines after 2 actually come with warnings; I'll explain how to identify them in a separate episode later.)
3: This is a signal of supply exhaustion because it appears at the end of an oversold market and is a short-term candlestick with low volume. The subsequent rebound bullish candlestick was confirmed for the first time, because the rebound bullish candle completely engulfed it and closed very full; otherwise, there should have been a clear upper shadow or even a bearish candlestick. Although the following rebound volume is also very strong, this is probably mainly led by short closing positions, so you can't follow the crowd and buy at the bottom—you need to wait for STs.
4: This is a small bearish candlestick with shrinking volume. A successful ST and candlestick chart have significantly reduced volatility and trading volume, followed by demand following and continuously hitting new highs. The difference from 2 is very clear, and here it is confirmed for the second time that 3 indicates supply exhaustion.
5: The price hits a new high again, breaking through the rebound high of 3, and closing at almost the highest level, indicating new demand entering. The subsequent pullback is also a small candlestick with shrinking volume. This is where you can go long. The difference between this and 2 is really obvious.
6: This is a false breakout. Judging from the candlestick formation process, the price first hits a new high. Untrained investors will follow the trend and buy during this process. Then the price falls, and at this point, all the chasing crowds are stuck at the peak. It consumes the public's strength, leaving them unable to buy at the bottom in the upcoming market.
7: This is a SC, closed at support, and the main force bought limit orders here, so it didn't break below directly.
8: This is the ST for 7, which is also a small Spring. Test results: There is still floating supply in the market, so the market will likely experience shake-up events soon.
9: This is also a small spring. Why is it here? Because the previous limit orders at the price have been exhausted. This is where the main force sets up new batch of limit orders to buy, continuing to absorb market supply. However, there isn't much trading here, indicating very little supply, so there's a sharp rebound.
9-10: This is an SOS signal, indicating the formation of an upward order, increasing trading volume with rising prices, indicating active investment activity.
10: This is also an SOT. High trading volume without hitting new highs means the market is meeting the public's buying demand, which means there is still floating supply in the market. The main force must completely crush the public for prices to truly rise.
10-11: This drop is very rapid and large, matching the characteristics of a shake-up position. It occurs when the bottom market is still active, confirming the 10 SOT.
11: This is a high-volume SC. Here, the public fully hands over their shares, and the price only slightly breaks below the 9 low. The subsequent high-volume doji is SOT, so the price does not continue to fall. Instead, a small bullish candlestick steadily rises, hitting new highs instead of surging rapidly. Trading volume is high and stable, forming an SOS. The price quickly rebounds. During the pullback and pause, trading volume drops significantly, indicating almost no supply, so high support and LPS are formed. Then the price strongly breaks through previous resistance , forming a JOC, which signals the end of accumulation.
12: This is a supply that has just exited the accumulation zone, so there's no need to worry too much. It will most likely only scare off the public who bought in midway.
13: This is the ST for 12. From low trading volume and short candlesticks, we can conclude that supply has been absorbed; otherwise, it should be a series of large bearish candlesticks falling back into the accumulation zone. The price then hit new highs again, confirming that supply had been depleted.The recent surge in the 30-year US Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.23% represents a fundamental shift in the global macro landscape, transitioning markets into a decisive "risk-off" regime. For the cryptocurrency market, this spike in the "risk-free" rate creates significant headwinds by tightening liquidity and raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. This report analyzes the specific impacts on Ethereum ($ETH), the emerging altcoin Audiera ($BEAT), and the broader teThree key points in SpaceX's financial report
#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
On Tuesday, after the U.S. stock market closed, the company released its first earnings report since going public
There are three aspects to pay attention to regarding financial reports
1. Is it truly making money, or is it just burning through cash?
The market expects Q2 revenue to be about $6.88 billion, a significant quarter-on-quarter increase, with net losses narrowing significantly
Starlink contributes about 70% of its revenue, making it a stable cash cow
However, quarterly capital expenditures are expected to exceed $12 billion, free cash flow remains negative, and cash reserves continue to decline.
SpaceX is a company with rapid revenue growth but still burning money on Starship and Starlink on a large scale. What we want to see is when this money-burning curve will turn.
2. Will it merge with Tesla?
On July 31, The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla was preparing to spin off its Chinese business to pave the way for a merger with SpaceX. Musk immediately denied the rumors, saying it was non-discussed and absurd fake news, which Tesla China denied.
There is a reason why the rumors can be spread so true
As everyone knows, SpaceX burns money aggressively, and the market speculates that Tesla's Chinese assets will become its financial source—this is what is meant by keeping SpaceX alive. SpaceX has the attributes of a defense contractor, while Tesla's Shanghai factory handles more than half of its global capacity. Once merged, Chinese assets would become the biggest minefield for regulatory scrutiny.
Although this recent debunking has calmed the rumor, as long as the pressure of burning cash and cash flow remains, speculation about resource reallocation will keep resurfacing.
3. Lifting restrictions and catalysis
On August 6, about 20% of SpaceX's restricted shares, corresponding to approximately $116 billion in market value, will be unlocked, raising short-term selling pressure to watch.
Additionally, whether Starship can move toward full reusability, significantly reduce launch costs, and the progress of Grok and its AI business are key catalysts determining its long-term valuation.
SpaceX's first financial report may not only be about whether it makes money, but also about how Musk supports this money-burning machine, while also balancing trade-offs among rocket, satellite, automotive, and AI industries. What OKB really needs to prove isn't how much benefits it can offer, but whether third-party developers can create apps that users open every day.
The reverse scenario is: if there is sustained growth in third-party markets, independent developer staking, on-chain fees, and non-OKX onboarding users in the next 6–12 months, then OKB may upgrade from a "platform token" to an "Exchange OS system resource."
There are only four pieces of evidence that will change my judgment:
The number of third-party deployers, actual staked amount, ongoing fees, and whether users return even without incentives.
Before this evidence appeared, OKB was a boldly designed prototype—not a completed work. $OKB STRATEGY may sell up to $5 billion worth of Bitcoin
=> Strategy has just approved the right to sell up to $5 billion worth of BTC (about 10% of holdings) when truly necessary.
Reason: The preferred STRC did not reach the expected $100 milestone, and continuing to issue MSTR shares to raise funds is no longer the optimal option.
The funds will be used for:
+ Increased the cash reserve fund to $1.25 billion.
+ Annual payment of $1.76 billion in dividends and loan interest.
+ Repurchase up to $2 billion worth of MSTR and STRC stock.
=> This is a move to manage cash flow risk and support the stock price, rather than selling off immediately in the market. Nevertheless, the risk of a giant whale selling BTC will still put considerable psychological pressure on the bulls.
Guys, you won the lottery!$CARDS is up 0.2% this week. basically nothing. yet 6 smart money wallets net bought $64K into that flat chart over the same stretch.
the twist: for the 30 days before this, smart money was net SELLING $CARDS, $387K out the door. this week they flipped, one tracked wallet alone put in $190K, another $180K, another $144K, all buying while the group's overall net lands at $64K once the smaller sellers inside it are counted.
fresh tape right now doesn't agree yet: last hour is 47 sells vs 53 buys, $10K sold vs $7K bought. so the week says accumulation, the hour says distribution. that's the tension, not a clean story.
a mind change after a month of selling is worth watching, not worth betting the farm on. just the wallets and the gap, your call. NFA🚨 The biggest trap in crypto right now? Believing Bitcoin's bounce means the whole market is back.
It doesn't.
Over the last two days, $BTC has rebounded from around $63K, but if you look beneath the surface, the picture changes.
So far, $SOL is one of the few major altcoins showing real strength. Most of the alt market is still struggling to gain momentum.
That's a warning—not a confirmation.
In a genuine bull market, capital doesn't stay in Bitcoin for long. It rotates into Ethereum, then large-cap alts, and eventually smaller, higher-risk projects. That's what creates a broad-based rally.
We're not seeing that yet.
Instead, investors are keeping money in the safest and most liquid assets. They're protecting capital rather than chasing risk. That's the behavior of a market that remains cautious, not one that's fully bullish.
Until liquidity starts spreading across the altcoin market, treat this move as a Bitcoin-led bounce, not the beginning of a new altseason.
Stay disciplined. Let the market prove itself before you chase green candles.
Smart money follows liquidity—not emotions.
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SOL
#DailyOrbit $BTC The spot premium continues to fall, staying at a negative premium for a long time with no signs of a reversal, which is not a good sign 🙃
Past experience tells us that without continuous spot buying, the market will never last; US funds were the strongest spot buying stock
But since the rebound at the end of April, Coinbase's spot premium has remained underwater, indicating that BTC at this level is still unattractive to US capital
Without incremental capital entering the market, there will be no reversal in the market. What we can do now is calm down and settle down more 😶
#波动雷达: Monitor currency fluctuations In July 2026, global stock markets experienced an extremely differentiated "black storm"—Hong Kong stocks led the world with a 13% gain, while the A-share STAR 50 plunged 26% to the bottom, and South Korea's KOSPI fell over 22% in a single month. Under the same sky, some people revel, some suffer losses.
1. A Panorama of July Gains and Losses in Major Global Stock Indices
Index July Change Rankings
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index +13.13%, 🥇 the global top gainer
Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index +11.2%, 🥈 second in global gains
Hong Kong Hang Seng Tech Index +7.98% ranked 🥉 third globally in gains
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +0.3% for the fourth straight month
The S&P 500 -0.1% closed slightly lower
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.2%, marking its worst monthly performance since March
The Shanghai Composite Index dropped -6.4%, giving back all its gains for the year
Shenzhen Component Index -16.21% —
South Korea's KOSPI index is -22.19%, second only to the 1997 Asian financial crisis
The ChiNext Index fell 23%, the second largest single-month drop in history
STAR 50 -25.9%, ranking last globally
Note: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 20% in July; The Nikkei 225 plunged nearly 6% in mid-month, but narrowed its losses after rebounding at month-end; The European Stoxx 50, the UK's FTSE 100, and other ETFs have generally seen relatively moderate fluctuations.
2. Three main threads of market differentiation
Main Theme One: Value Outperforms Growth, Hong Kong Stocks Win Effortlessly
The Hang Seng Index crowned the global champion with a 13.13% gain. The logic is simple: extremely low valuations + high dividends have become a "safe haven" amid global panic. When tech stocks are bleeding like rivers, funds rush into Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks for safe haven.
Main Theme 2: Overvalued Tech Stocks Hit by a 'Massacre'
The STAR 50 plunged nearly 26%, the ChiNext index dropped 23%, the memory chip sector dropped nearly 32%, and semiconductors dropped over 30%. The technology sector in the A-share market has almost completely collapsed. South Korea's KOSPI fell from a "global bull crown" in the first half of the year to a "bear head," Samsung Electronics fell 21%, and SK Hynix plunged 35%.
Main theme three: A violent rebound does not equal a trend reversal
In the last two trading days of July, KOSPI surged 17.91% in a single day, setting a new record, while Philadelphia Semiconductor rose over 8%. But this rebound is more like a technical recovery driven by short closing out. After the August open, the real question facing the market is—after the rebound, has the pricing logic shifted?
3. Triple Forces Ignite a "Black Storm"
1. AI Faith Collapse — "AI Stock God" Forced Liquidation Sparks Intense Stampede
Hedge fund Situational Awareness, led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, was forced to sell public market equity assets due to margin calls due to leveraged bets on AI stocks, and was ultimately taken over by Citadel. The fund's assets once soared to $45 billion, but plummeted 67% in July alone. Goldman Sachs' high-beta momentum basket posted its worst monthly performance in July since November 2000.
2. South Korea's Leverage Collapse — Regulatory Deleveraging Triggers a Chain Reaction of Circuit Breakers
South Korean regulators have strictly cracked down on single-stock leveraged products and implemented strong deleveraging, causing KOSPI to frequently trigger circuit breakers throughout the month. South Korean ETF trading was also a major driver of the plunge. JPMorgan judges that the deleveraging process is largely complete and the market is approaching a phased bottom.
3. Middle East oil price shock + Federal Reserve turning hawkish — Macro liquidity tightens
The Middle East conflict escalated, and international oil prices soared; At the July FOMC meeting, rates were kept unchanged at 9-3, with three opposing votes the most since 2016. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries broke through 5.2%, the highest since 2007. Macro and micro liquidity do not support going long.
Summary
The core narrative for global stock markets in July 2026 is: the phased burst of the AI bubble + the collapse of leveraged trading in South Korea + resonance of Middle Eastern geopolitical risks. What rose were low-valuation Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks, while what fell were high-valuation tech growth.
However, Dalio warned that the market is currently experiencing a "textbook AI asset bubble," and humanity is at the end of a "major cycle" recession that occurs once every 80 years. The real test of August may just be beginning. 🚨 A Green Market Doesn't Automatically Mean Altseason
Several altcoins have posted impressive gains, leading many traders to declare that a full altseason has arrived. But a handful of strong performers isn't enough to confirm a market-wide shift.
Projects like $WLD and $ENA have shown solid momentum, yet the majority of market liquidity still appears to be centered around $BTC and $ETH, where institutional and large-scale investors remain most active.
Another factor worth monitoring is derivatives positioning. Some closely watched professional traders have recently increased short exposure on $AVAX. While that doesn't guarantee a bearish outcome, it highlights that experienced market participants are not all expecting an immediate continuation higher.
At the same time, sharp declines in tokens such as $MMT remind us that risk remains elevated, even during periods when selected sectors are outperforming.
Liquidity continues to favor quality over quantity.
🟠 $BTC remains the primary driver of overall market direction.
🔵 $ETH continues to attract strong institutional interest.
📊 Many altcoins are still following Bitcoin's price action rather than establishing independent trends.
The real confirmation of altseason will come when capital consistently expands beyond Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few leading narratives into the broader altcoin market.
Until then, current conditions look more like selective sector rotation than a full-scale altcoin cycle.
Follow the flow of liquidity, stay disciplined, and let the market confirm the trend before chasing it.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #AVAX #Crypto #Altcoins #Trading #MarketAnalysis #RiskManagement
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
#USJapanYenIntervention
#KoreaChipSelloff
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL The most ruthless part of '🔥 Midday Chat' $OKB 2026: It's not about 'deflation,' but about turning 'opening an exchange' into a deposit business
Earlier, everyone was repeating the old sayings: 21 million, burn 65.25 million, X Layer's only gas...... That's true, but only about 30% of OKB.
What truly made it on a different level from BNB was Exchange OS on 2026/5/26—this move pushed OKB up from "on-chain fuel" to another level:
OKX has officially moved its institutional-level infrastructure—matching, margin, clearing, risk control, and unified accounts—to the X Layer protocol layer, running on the dual architecture of EVM + TradeZone, with peak 300,000 TPS and millisecond-level matchmaking
Any team, institution, or project team wanting to open spot/perpetual/prediction markets on it shouldn't have to write code; the first step is to stake OKB in the X Layer Staking Contract—not a recommendation, but a prerequisite
In other words: in the past, opening an exchange cost tens of millions of dollars to build a system; Now it's changed to "Pay an OKB deposit and rent the same engine as OKX."
The significance of this layer of change:
OKB went from "gas fees burning a bit" to "opening a market and getting locked down for a long time." Gas is flow, staking is stock—the denominator is 21 million, and the numerator expands from daily consumption to "market × single staked amount"—this is the second growth curve Exchange OS has added to OKB.
So stop asking "Is OKB another BNB"—BNB is the dividend stock of Binance Empire + BSC fuel; OKB is now the ticket to entry on X Layer: "Anyone who wants to do trading business must stock up on OKB first." One is consumption, the other is means of production; valuation anchors are not a single species. $OKB BTC topped the list with 36 mentions in one hour: a breakdown of the popularity and tone of BTC, ETH, and SOL
The most useful part of this snapshot isn't guessing the price, but seeing where your attention is focused.
According to the official ranking updated by OKX Onchain OS at 10:00 AM (China time) on August 3rd, BTC, ETH, and SOL were mentioned 36, 14, and 15 times respectively in the past hour. These numbers represent discussion density; They do not include trading volume, cash flow, or account holdings.
BTC ranks first in mentions, with a short-term window speed of 0.68 times the 24-hour average, indicating a "clear slowdown." In terms of tone, 33% are bullish, 28% bearish, and about 39% neutral, so leading heat and aligning direction are not the same thing.
The other two stocks also have their own rhythms. BTC is clearly slowing down, with bulls and bears approaching; ETH is slightly accelerating, with a clear advantage in bullish tendencies; SOL is roughly close to the mean of the long window, with a clear advantage in the bullish range. Putting these three groups together is closer to the current market than just picking the highest percentage.
If we had to compare tone, SOL's marginal margin and margin had the highest value, currently classified as 'a clear advantage over the margin.' But don't be fooled by the speed: when the speed of mentions isn't rising in tandem, it only means the current discussion is leaning toward one side, not that more people are quickly forming the same view. Conversely, a faster mention volume and a rise in bearish proportions may simply be a risk event attracting more attention.
The source structure is also worth reading. BTC's one-hour content is almost entirely driven by X, ETH is primarily driven by X, and SOL is almost entirely driven by X. X spreads quickly, capturing market attention early and making it easier for slogans to be shared, quoted, and amplified; The news is slower, so you still need to return to the project team, regulators, or trading platform for original announcements for verification.
Put the short and long windows back on the same chart: BTC 24-hour bullish 24%, bearish 34%; ETH is 39% and 21%; SOL is 56%, 15%. If the direction of one hour suddenly deviates significantly from the whole day, treat it as a pending turning point, rather than immediately rewriting the entire day's narrative.
There is also a matter of timing here. The 24-hour average mixes active periods in Asia, Europe, and the US; the most recent hour's higher or lower times do not necessarily indicate new events. At least look at one or two consecutive snapshots to confirm whether the speed and tone of mention continue to make a judgment about the main line of the brief fluctuations.
To truly judge whether this wave of heat is tradable, we need to add spot transactions, perpetual contract funding rates, open interest, and on-chain activity. If attention, tone, and independent market data can echo each other, judgments will be more solid; One less layer means more uncertainty.
What is the most likely thing to overturn your current judgment? If the next hour's rankings, tone, and source structure all reverse, this round will only be a brief spike; If the ranking holds, news sources increase, and market transactions keep up, it indicates that attention may be settling. Clearly stating the expiration conditions first is more useful than providing reasons for every fluctuation afterward.
What is now confirmed is that BTC has received the most attention, SOL's long-short spread is relatively high among the three, and the discussion speed among the three assets is not synchronized. This is a snapshot of market attention, not a directional prediction. If the data changes in the next round, the judgment should also change accordingly.The sudden surge in the yen may seem like an exchange rate on the surface, but behind it may be global arbitrage funds requencing up.
Many people's first reaction when seeing the yen surge is that Japan has finally saved the yen. This judgment can't be wrong, but maybe they only saw the sign at the entrance and didn't see the person inside paying and leaving.
In recent years, the yen's long-term low interest rates have made it one of the cheapest "borrowing tools" in the global market. Borrow funds in yen, then convert them into dollars or other assets to buy US stocks, tech stocks, high-yield bonds, and even crypto assets. As long as the yen is weak, interest rates are low, and risk assets rise, this business is like opening a high-profit store with cheap rent—everyone thinks they're smart.
The problem is, the biggest fear in arbitrage trading isn't a gradual price increase, but a sudden rent increase by landlords.
If the yen only appreciates slowly, funds still have time to adjust. But if the yen rises rapidly in a short time, borrowers will find that originally cheap debt suddenly becomes expensive. To reduce risk, they may have to sell risk assets and buy back yen to repay debts.
So the chain came out:
Sell risk assets
↓
Buy back the yen
↓
The yen rose further
↓
More arbitrage positions were forced to reduce leverage
At this point, the yen's rise is no longer just the Bank of Japan's problem; it is the global liquidity sheet beginning to shine with a line of liabilities.
My judgment is quite simple:
The yen is clearly positive in the short term.
The US dollar is bearish.
Gold, mostly neutral.
BTC is neutrally bearish in the short term.
This is not to say Bitcoin's fundamentals have suddenly deteriorated, nor that on-chain logic has changed. The real issue is that if global arbitrage funds begin to reduce risk exposure, the first assets to be sold are often not the worst assets, but those with good liquidity, high volatility, and those that can be quickly liquidated. At times like this, BTC is easily treated as an ATM rather than a ballot box of faith.
Assets like ETH and SOL carry higher risks. Because when funds start withdrawing from highly volatile assets, the later you go and the more you rely on risk-sensitive assets, the greater the volatility tends to be. The crypto market often claims to be independent, but when global liquidity tightens, it is often stuffed into the "risk assets" drawer.
But there's no need to panic at the sight of the yen rising.
What really needs to be observed is not how much the yen rose in a single day, but whether there will be sustained capital outflows from US stocks and BTC afterward. If after the yen appreciates, U.S. stocks can hold steady and BTC does not break through, then this may just be an exchange rate adjustment that the market can digest and move on.
If the yen continues to strengthen, US tech stocks start to fall in tandem, and BTC and highly volatile altcoins weaken with increased volume, the nature of the situation changes: this is not just a yen rally, but a global liquidity repricing.
Many market risks initially appear as "small-scale events." The rise of the yen may seem like Japan's own issue, but arbitrage funds have never been a problem for Japan alone. Borrowing money in Tokyo, buying stocks in New York, buying coins on-chain—eventually, liquidations can happen anywhere.
So this time, the focus is not on asking, "Has Japan succeeded in saving the exchange rate?", but rather:
Will those positions propped up by cheap yen start to be withdrawn?
If it were just a currency correction, risk assets would quickly provide an answer.
If it's a shift in capital trends, the answer won't just be written on the yen candlestick—it will also be written on the Nasdaq, BTC, ETH, SOL, and the entire risk asset chain.
Do you think this rise in the yen is merely Japan rescuing the exchange rate, or is it a prelude to a new round of global capital shifts? #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? #美日确认联合购汇 #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
🔥5.27%。 As of August 2, this is the highest figure for the 30-year Treasury yield as of August 2—the highest since 2007. The 10-year bond also climbed above 4.75%, setting a new high for the year.
Just a month ago, someone also said 5% was the top. Then the yield has broken through 5.1%, then 5.2%, and now it's reached 5.27%. JPMorgan has just raised its year-end target for 30-year U.S. Treasuries from 5.2% to 5.4%.
Where is the top? No one knows.
Why are long-term bonds still rising? Three reasons:
First, the Fed has lost its own credibility.
At the July policy meeting, rates were kept unchanged at 9:3, with three members voting against a rate hike—the Fed's highest number of opposing votes in a decade. After the meeting, Chairman Wash said a bunch of "inflation must return to 2%," but did not provide any action roadmap. He even hinted that the 2% inflation target itself "may change after next year."
Citi's global chief economist put it bluntly: the market has voted no confidence in the Fed. You may say you're a hawk, but the market is focused on action.
Second, the joint intervention by the US and Japan in the yen unexpectedly stabbed US debt.
Last week, the US and Japan jointly bought yen, with a possible amount of up to $58.97 billion. Intervention requires ammunition, with the most direct source being selling or collateralizing U.S. Treasuries. The long-term debt, already falling in the balance, was replenished by their own people.
Third, the Middle East has not calmed down.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked, and Brent crude is approaching 97 dollars. Inflation expectations have been reignited by energy prices, pushing long-term bond yields higher.
Now the question is: is this the top, or a new beginning?
The bulls say: A 5.27% return, risk-free returns, are already ridiculous, and funds will flow back sooner or later.
Bears say: As long as Wash's "talk, no action" continues, as long as the Middle East doesn't cease, long-term bonds won't finish falling. Wellington Asset Management warned that if the market begins to doubt the credibility of Fed policy, yields will continue to rise.
My judgment: There may be a short-term rebound, but the trend hasn't reversed yet.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has already exceeded 70%. As long as rate hike expectations persist, long-term bonds will not truly bottom out. JPMorgan's year-end target to 5.4% is not without reason.
Invesco Zhao Yaoting made something thought-provoking: high US Treasury yields are tightening financial conditions, and the market has already put the brakes on the Fed. But "stepping on the brakes" and "stopping the car" are two different things.
5. With a 27% risk-free return in place, how much position do you still have in risk assets?
Share your thoughts 👇 in the comments section清晰法案对比特币周期的主导意义究竟有多大？
币圈最关注的现货ETF、监管权责划分，全部围绕这部法案博弈，核心是解决监管的不确定性，以及链上的明朗化。
从更深层次来说，重点在于正式确立大饼的大宗商品属性，合规其配置路径，这应该是下轮牛市最重要的叙事之一；
据Polymarket数据：
2026年内签署成为法律概率大约30%~35%，8月休会前闯关成功的概率不足20%。
即使本月不通过也在市场的预期之内，该消化的也消化完了，早已定价。所以不指望这则消息面带动大跌，估计要搁置到27年才会正式落地。🚨 SPCX is about to face its biggest reality check yet.
The company's first earnings report is almost here, and just days later, a massive share unlock worth hundreds of billions of dollars will hit the market.
This isn't just another earnings season—it could be a defining moment for the stock.
1. The core fundamental contradiction
In its early days after listing, SPCX benefited from an extremely limited float. Scarcity, strong narratives, and passive index fund buying helped create a significant premium.
That dynamic is about to change.
After the U.S. market closes on August 4, SPCX will release its first earnings report since listing. Then, on August 6, nearly 911.5 million shares are scheduled to unlock, bringing hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of potential supply into the market.
Early investors have very low cost bases, giving them every incentive to lock in profits.
An unlock doesn't automatically mean everyone sells on day one—but it does remove one of the biggest bullish arguments: scarcity.
2. Why the earnings report matters
The first earnings report is more than a quarterly update—it's the market's first real valuation test.
Investors will be watching closely for:
Starlink's revenue growth
User growth
The company's overall losses
Capital expenditure plans for Starship and xAI
Here's how different outcomes could play out:
📈 If results significantly beat expectations:
Bullish sentiment could improve and panic selling may ease. Even so, overcoming the supply pressure from the massive unlock won't be easy. Any rally could still face heavy selling overhead.
➡️ If results simply meet expectations:
Without a fresh positive catalyst, the market may continue pricing in the unlock risk, leaving the stock stuck in a weak and volatile range.
📉 If results disappoint or losses widen:
The valuation narrative could take a double hit, giving bears even more momentum and increasing the risk of another sharp leg lower.
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK This weekend, the whole world was once again played by Trump.
Last Friday, he also called for a "hard strike" on Iran. The U.S. State Department has issued a direct evacuation warning to American citizens in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is ready to cooperate with the joint strike.
Guess what happened?
Netanyahu only learned the blow was canceled during Trump's "real social networking."
A prime minister of a country only realizes on social media that his allies are not fighting. Netflix wouldn't dare write this plot like this.
Brent crude oil once plunged 7.3%, dropping to $81.55. WTI crude fell below the $80 mark.
Gold surged above $4,080. U.S. stock futures rose across the board. Bitcoin broke above $63,000.
Trump said: There is already an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, and denuclearization will also be agreed upon.
Then Iran said: "This is a new lie" — the Strait of Hormuz "will never return to its pre-war state."
Trump's "face-shifting" has become a typical feature of this five-month-long conflict.
Volatility is soaring again. BTC has seen safe-haven buying as "digital gold" in the short term.
But what about the mid-term? High oil prices→ high inflation→ high interest rates. The Fed dares not cut rates, liquidity is drained, and BTC is tightly suppressed.
BTC in 2026 will long abandon the "war narrative" model. It feeds on dollar liquidity.$XRP Currently quoted at $1.08, 24-hour gain of 1.85% On 🚨 the surface, it appears to be a mild rebound, but technically hidden dangers: the price has fallen below the 20-day moving average (1.09) and 50-day moving average (1.11), and is 25% below the 200-day moving average (1.35). The bearish trend still dominates absolutely; this small rebound feels more like resistance for a downward relay rather than a signal of a trend reversal.
📰 The news is equally bleak. Ripple just obtained the MiCA license in Luxembourg, and its compliance map continues to expand in Europe, which is considered a long-term benefit; But at the same time, the project team unlocked another 500 million XRP, with a market capitalization of about $533 million, roughly 0.9% of the circulating supply. The selling pressure unlocked during the quarter is directly directed at the short-term market, while fundamental improvements are offset by supply shocks, making the bulls' situation even worse.
📊 Derivatives data instead sends a very extreme signal: 76% of top traders on Binance hold long positions, and retail investors are long at 73%. Market consensus is almost unanimously bullish, but history tells us that when everyone stands on the same side, the real market shift often erupts in the opposite direction. Extremely crowded optimism itself is the most dangerous negative indicator.
⚔️ For short-term trading, keep a close eye on the core range of 1.05 to 1.11. Bulls must increase volume and break above 1.11 and stabilize effectively to qualify to challenge the resistance zone between 1.18 and 1.22; If 1.05 is breached, 1.03 will be exposed below, and in extreme cases, it could even dip into the 0.95 to 0.98 range. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears is not yet over; don't rush to place heavy bets; let the price take the lead first.
🤔 This bullish and bearish battle is essentially a direct confrontation between "compliant positive factors versus unlocking selling pressure," combined with the fragile consensus of retail investors and major players holding heavy positions in the same direction, so short-term volatility is likely to be very dramatic. Cautiously observing and waiting for direction confirmation is the smartest strategy at present. $BTC $ETH Simultaneously pay attention to macroeconomic linkages.Although ETH's long-term trend will still be influenced by BTC, in this bear market, ETH's decline was significantly greater than BTC's, meaning that once the market enters a new cycle, its resilience to recovery will be stronger. Judging from recent capital flows, many institutions, including BlackRock, are also continuously increasing their allocation to ETH, indicating that institutional funds are gradually building positions.
ETH itself has higher volatility than BTC, and historically, many phases have exhibited characteristics similar to "2x Beta"—bull markets rise more fiercely, bear markets fall harder. So I believe ETH's next rally has a chance to surpass BTC.
However, a rise exceeding BTC does not mean its market capitalization can surpass BTC. BTC's status as digital gold and a store of value asset remains solid, while ETH serves more like the infrastructure of the on-chain economy. In the future, the two are likely to benefit together under different narratives,This week's earnings report only asks one question: Are those astronomical AI capital expenditures still on the gas, or are they about to hit a wall?
I personally follow a supply chain route, not randomly click on the list.
$AMD → $ANET / $ALAB → $SNDK, this line connects computing power to high-speed interconnection and storage, all the way through. Whether the MI series can capture more market share, and switches and Retimer chips sell well, is essentially testing whether server racks are truly expanding.
Then Friday is the turn of $OKLO and $VST. No matter how fast the data center is built, it still faces a rather rustic issue—no electricity to use. The next bottleneck for computing power has never been chips, but the power grid.
By watching these companies these past few days, you can roughly sense whether the entire AI infrastructure expansion can still hold up.
#美股財報 #AI算力 #半導體 #電力能源 🚨 The market doesn't care how much you believe—it only cares about price.
Right now, $SPCX looks weak.
The trend has been sliding lower for weeks, with lower highs, lower lows, and the bullish structure disappearing a long time ago. It's honestly hard to understand the expectations of those who are still aggressively chasing longs here.
That said, let's separate the company from the chart.
Objectively speaking, Elon Musk has built one of the strongest personal brands in the world. A lot of people criticize him regardless of the context, but that view can be overly one-sided.
SpaceX hasn't yet reached stable, mature commercial crew operations, and its operating data and project milestones are publicly verifiable. If you genuinely believe in space exploration and are willing to support humanity's ambition to reach the stars, that's a perfectly understandable perspective.
But investing and trading aren't the same as believing.
The company's first earnings report after listing is about to be released, and just two days later, the market faces the largest single share unlock in U.S. stock market history, with 911.5 million shares set to become available. That's a significant increase in potential circulating supply.
Right now, investors will be watching three things closely:
• Starlink's revenue growth
• xAI's computing power orders
• Starship's long-term development guidance
If SPCX is going to reverse its downtrend, the earnings report will likely need to materially exceed expectations. Faith alone is unlikely to absorb the selling pressure from such a massive unlock.
Keep your conviction if you believe in the long-term vision—but don't confuse conviction with a trading strategy.
The trend is clear, the earnings test is approaching, and the unlock isn't far behind.
Don't let personal conviction blind you to what the market is actually telling you.
#SPCX首份财报将公布 #千亿美元解禁在即
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? Currently, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has broken through 5.2%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Market divides are sharp. Is this a temporary top, or the starting point of a new upward cycle? From the logic of bearish bonds and continued rising yields: the U.S. fiscal deficit remains high, long-term bond supply continues to expand, and combined with Japanese and other overseas central banks continuously reducing long-term bond holdings, supply-demand imbalance persists for a long time. At the same time, geopolitical disturbances in oil prices and strong resilience in forward inflation, combined with the Fed's continued high interest rates, have raised long-term premiums, supporting U.S. Treasury yields to maintain a high and slightly strong trend. However, short-term peaking and pullback signals are also obvious: 5.2% falls within a historically strong resistance range, with bullish sentiment extremely crowded. US economic and consumer data are gradually cooling down. If employment weakens, the market will price in advance expectations of rate cuts, causing long-term funds to flow back into bonds and driving yield adjustments. Overall: short-term high-level fluctuations and intense bull-bear tug-of-war, making it difficult to sustain a one-sided upward trend; Medium- to long-term structural pressure has not yet subsided; even if there is a pullback, the downside space is limited, and high-level fluctuations will become the norm. $BTC $ETH $SNDK JPMorgan raised its target for the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.4%, and many retail investors are speculating whether 5.3% has peaked. In my view, this is the result of Walsh's abstract maneuvers and will continue for a long time.
Funds buying long-term Treasuries value policy certainty above all. When Walsh first took office, he packaged himself as an inflation fighter, but with inflation still high, he led the vote to keep interest rates unchanged. He said one thing and did another, making the entire market feel he was inconsistent in words and actions, completely losing trust in the Fed's fight against inflation.
Even more critically, Wash's practice of giving advance warnings to the market was abolished. Traders had completely lost their standard for predicting policy trends; since they couldn't understand policy directions, safe-haven funds had no choice but to flee. Institutions frantically sold long-term U.S. Treasuries, with major players yielding as high as 5.4%.
Faced with warnings of market sell-offs, Wash not only failed to calm his emotions but instead busied himself with palace intrigue. He ordered the advancement of internal centralization reforms, stripped other officials of their voices, and even established his own core working group to control the standard-setting authority. He tried to consolidate all the Fed's power and might even forcibly cut rates in the future to support Trump.
When the Fed's independence is severely weakened, even reduced to a tool to support Trump's money printing, long-term U.S. Treasuries are no longer an absolutely safe haven.
As long as this trend of monetary fiscalization continues, long-term Treasury yields will rarely truly peak. The trust cracks in the traditional fiat currency system are widening, which has instead brought long-term underlying benefits to decentralized crypto assets.
#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
@OKX Chinese: @OKX planet AWS is printing money, but capital expenditures are burning cash
AWS operating profit is $16.6 billion, contributing about 60% of the group's operating profit;
On the other hand, Amazon's operating cash flow over the past 12 months is $161.4 billion, property and equipment capital expenditures increased by $66.1 billion year-over-year, yet free cash flow is squeezed to -$7.6 billion.
This is exactly the contradiction most worth watching in the current AI trade: profits are powered by AWS, while cash flow is consumed by computing power and infrastructure.
The market is willing to continue giving high valuations not because everyone ignores the cash burn, but because it believes this round of spending will bring a larger pool of cloud, advertising, and AI revenue.
Who is collecting money in the AI cycle, and who is advancing money in advance—this is the key to sector rotation.
#AI巨头债券利差飙升：投资风险还是抄底良机
#谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底，换取两成股权 #美伊重回谈判桌, oil prices pulled back
Trump really pulled off this move.
First call for a hit, then a call to stop. On Friday, they still said they would "strike very hard," but on Sunday announced the cancellation of the strike and shifted to negotiations. Extreme pressure is applied and the net is quickly closed. Iran also confirmed that negotiations would begin on Monday afternoon, and there was an agreement in place for the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices crashed sharply, with Brent dropping over 7% intraday, plunging from just over 90 to 81.55 dollars.
But there's a detail worth pondering—there was a 'ease' in late July, but it was broken in less than a week. Although bilateral negotiations support this time, no one can guarantee the true sustainability of the event.
What does this mean for the crypto world?
The decline in oil prices is a short-term positive for risk assets. Inflation expectations are cooling down, and the urgency for rate hikes is easing. After such a long period of volatility, if macro pressure can ease, it would indeed provide support. But the problem is, this kind of "expectation cycle" itself is the most detrimental to the market. On weekends, they said they would go to war, so oil prices rose; on Monday, they said they wouldn't, so oil prices fell. Da Bing shook along with it, but the direction never came out.
The reason is simple—the market has become desensitized to this repeated cycle. What truly affects Bitcoin's mid-term trajectory are liquidity and capital structure, not oil prices themselves.
My view is actually quite clear: a drop in oil prices is a good thing, but not enough to change the direction of the market. What the market lacks now is a true macro turning point—either clear rate cut expectations or continuous incremental capital inflows. Until then, Dabing will most likely continue to be reluctant. Just wait, no rush for now.
$BTC $ETH $BEAT When equities in Seoul rally 14% in a single session, the reflexive read is "risk-on, buy everything." Crypto's non-reaction today complicates that. BTC near $62,800 and ETH at $1,860 are barely moving while KOSPI posts a historic single-day surge. That divergence points to a narrower rotation, not a broad liquidity wave.
The US-Japan confirmed joint intervention to arrest yen weakness is the pivot worth watching. It shifts the dollar narrative at the margin, but the relief is landing selectively in beaten-down equity names, not in assets that need rate certainty to reprice. Until the 30-year yield question resolves, the macro bid for crypto stays conditional.
DYOR.
#OKXOrbitApple is still the same Apple, but its way of making money is more stable now
Apple FY2026 Q3 total revenue was $109.417 billion, up 16% year-over-year; net profit was $29.789 billion, up 27.1% year-over-year.
The most noteworthy point is not "Apple is making money again," but how it makes money. iPhone revenue was $54.252 billion, still the largest cash inflow; however, service revenue continued to rise to $30.739 billion, combined with a 50.1% gross margin and a 32.6% operating margin, making Apple's profit structure more stable than simply selling hardware.
This is why whenever the market worries about demand fluctuations, Apple can always rely on "services + ecosystem" to support its valuation again.
Apple's core is not a sales miracle, but a high-margin ecosystem that continues to compound.
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ Many people track ETF net inflows every day.
Actually, more important than the scale of funds is:
Sources of funding.
In the past, the main buyers of BTC were retail investors.
Today, more and more buyers are turning into traditional financial institutions.
This means BTC's asset attributes are changing.
When institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity begin to continuously allocate BTC, it affects more than just market liquidity.
More importantly:
More and more long-term funds that previously couldn't directly invest in crypto are now able to allocate BTC through ETFs.
This includes long-term capital such as pensions, insurance funds, and university funds.
So I think.
The greatest significance of ETFs is not how many BTC you buy each day.
Instead:
BTC is entering the global asset allocation system.
This is a change worth paying attention to beyond price. $BTC Profits look great, but don't treat all profits as "main quality"
Amazon Q2 2026 net sales reached $200.606 billion, up 20% year-on-year; Operating profit was $27.461 billion, up 43% year-on-year; Net profit, however, jumped to $62.647 billion, a year-on-year increase of 245%.
The problem is, this "explosive net profit" does not fully equate to a sudden takeoff in retail and cloud businesses.
The most crucial figure in the chart is $53.396 billion in non-operating income. What truly deserves attention is AWS's $42.232 billion revenue, $1.66 billion profit contribution, and its ability to sustain the profit pool from its core business.
This is not a "completely invincible" financial report, but rather a report that requires breaking down the profit structure.
#亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元: Bet or bubble
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Sigh, the tech stock volatility in July taught me a lesson.
The Nasdaq closed lower, with high-momentum stocks hit the hardest. The reason wasn't fundamentals deteriorating, but leveraged funds trampling—just like when I used to take on contracts and get liquidated, stop-losses triggered a chain reaction, and only stabilized when big money entered to take over. To be honest, looking back now, the phase of pure AI speculation has ended.
Funds are starting to flow into assets with solid cash flow and clear AI monetization paths. Companies like Microsoft and Amazon, which can generate revenue through cloud services, can still rise; Those that burn money to expand are abandoned by the market.
My own approach: cut positions without performance support, keep cash for opportunities. Those who have fallen into this pitfall tell you: patience is more important than courage in a volatile market.
Which ticket trapped you July is? Let's talk in the comments. #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? #美日确认联合购汇 #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
⚠️ Personal review records do not constitute investment advice.$AEON Calmly flipping the table: 0.07917 → 0.06713, spot prices down about 15.2%.
Multiplying leverage by 20 times, 15.2% × 20≈ 304%. The math is tightly matched, but the psychological impact is maximized.
What does this indicate? This shows that I'm using high leverage to squeeze out the downward momentum of a low-priced coin. But near this "floor price," the biggest fear is not further declines, but sudden insertion—a single sweep order pulling back 5% can cut the unrealized profit in half. $ETH
So, surprise aside, don't be greedy: reduce your position and cash in, moving your stop-loss from "just looking" to the "cost protection line." $SOL #美日确认联合购汇 This is a solid trading thesis, but some parts are opinion rather than verifiable fact.
What makes sense
Chasing large breakout candles often leads to poor risk-reward because late buyers are more vulnerable if momentum fades.
Markets are frequently selective, with capital concentrating in specific sectors or narratives rather than lifting all assets equally.
Following liquidity, volume, and relative strength is generally a more disciplined approach than buying solely because a coin is trending on social media.
Claims that should be softened
Statements like:
"Capital is sticking around..."
"Losing momentum..."
should be presented as observations unless supported by measurable data (e.g., fund flows, on-chain metrics, sustained volume, or relative performance).
For example:
BTC may continue to benefit from institutional interest.
ETH may receive support from ETF-related demand and improving DeFi activity.
BNB, PENDLE, and LINK have shown relative strength, but whether capital continues to favor them depends on market conditions.
Likewise, meme coins such as SHIB, WIF, BONK, and FLOKI can quickly regain momentum if market sentiment shifts, so it's more accurate to say they are currently underperforming rather than definitively "losing momentum."
Key takeaway
The most valuable message is:
Don't confuse attention with sustained demand.
A coin that has already rallied 30–50% can certainly continue higher, but the risk-reward becomes less favorable unless:
volume remains strong,
buyers continue absorbing selling pressure,
and the broader market supports further upside.
Watching where liquidity persists over several sessions is generally more informative than reacting to a single explosive move.2026.08.03 International crude oil market review
1. Overview of today's market
In July, oil prices surged violently due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, with Brent reaching a peak above $90;
Today's Asian session plunged straight from a high level:
WTI crude oil plunged over 6% intraday, briefly falling below $80; Brent crude oil fell nearly 7% at its peak. The afternoon decline narrowed slightly, indicating a concentrated exit of geopolitical premiums.
2. Two core triggers for the sharp drop
1. Rising expectations for US-Iran negotiations (most core)
The U.S. announced a pause in military strikes against Iran and began negotiations today, causing market panic to quickly subside. Previously, much of the oil price increase was due to trading a safe-haven premium due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and disruption of crude oil shipments; Once the conflict eases, this part of the bubble will be squeezed out quickly.
Key reminder: Negotiations are just beginning, not agreements; the two sides are deeply divided, and information is highly volatile.
2. OPEC+ confirms increased production in September
Oil-producing countries have approved an increase of 188,000 barrels per day of crude oil quotas in September. During periods of geopolitical tension, oil-producing countries were reluctant to increase production, and now that the situation has cooled, expectations of increased supply have further suppressed the bulls.
3. Breakdown of the underlying logic of long-short positions
Bearish pressure
3. A large influx of speculative bulls in the early stage, and after the signal shifts, a concentrated take-profit stepping is triggered;
4. Weak global macro demand and high oil prices will suppress crude oil consumption;
5. In the context of high U.S. Treasury yields, commodity prices continue to surge but lack liquidity support.
Support factors below (no blind decline all the way)
6. The US-Iran negotiations are highly volatile, with rumors of friction emerging at any time, leading to a rapid rebound;
7. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has not fully returned to normal, and risks in the channel still exist;
8. The peak season for refined oil demand in Europe and the US during summer provides bottom-supporting for oil prices.
IV. Future Market Characterization (Key Points)
The conclusions we discussed before confirm again:
High oil prices have driven inflation→ increased expectations of Fed rate hikes→ suppressing global crude oil demand. Oil prices are unlikely to break out of a one-sided mad bull run, and after the surge, enter a wide range of fluctuations.
Short-term positioning: The strong market driven by geopolitics has temporarily come to a pause, shifting to a high-volatility and oscillating pattern.
Interval reference (short-term):
WTI key support is $78~79; Resistance at $84~86
Brent supports $81~82; Resistance at $87~89
5. Impact on the A-share sector
✅ Positives: Aviation, logistics, chemical fibers, basic chemicals (crude oil is the core cost; price decline improves profit expectations)
❌ Under pressure: Upstream oil and gas sectors such as PetroChina, CNOOC, and oil service equipment (oil prices fall, market lowers earnings expectations)
6. Key signals to watch the market
9. The US-Iran negotiations have made real-time statements; any news of conflict or friction can quickly trigger volatility;
10. Evening U.S. crude oil inventory data;
11. US Treasury yields and US dollar trends are linked;
12. Note: Do not chase one-sided waves in a volatile market; the news side reverses back and forth, and the short-term margin for error is very low.🚀 From $225 to nearly $109... did the rocket run out of fuel before leaving the launch pad?
SPCX genuinely made me laugh today. One minute everyone was calling it the next big thing, and now it's sitting around $108.9, barely moving, up just 0.08% over the past 24 hours.
The daily range is only $106.92–$110.55, with just $6.71 million in trading volume.
In simple terms? Liquidity is as thin as A4 paper, and the big players don't even seem interested.
Here's the painful part:
📉 Since the June 16 high of $225.25, SPCX has dropped 51.65%—more than half its value.
Current stats:
• Market cap: $7.3 million
• Circulating supply: 67,000 tokens
• RSI: 50.2 (neutral)
• MACD: Weak golden cross
• Support: $105.04
• Resistance: $113.31
It's listed on just four exchanges (Bitmex, Biconomy, Coinstore, and Jupiter). Volume is concentrated, but there's still no convincing breakout.
So why is it so weak?
1️⃣ The narrative faded.
When SpaceX IPO'd on June 12, Backpack and Sunrise launched this tokenized stock on Solana with the promise of a 1:1 peg to the real shares. Hype exploded, on-chain volume reached $350 million, and everyone wanted in.
Then reality hit.
By July 23, the price had fallen from around $230 to $116—a 49.6% collapse. Large holders reportedly lost around $1.23 million on long positions, and market sentiment quickly disappeared.
2️⃣ Earnings and unlock pressure arrived together.
SpaceX released its first public earnings report on August 4, followed by an internal unlock of roughly 911.5 million shares on August 6. That wave of potential supply added pressure, and the tokenized stock naturally felt the impact.
3️⃣ One whale is deeply underwater.
A well-known Hyperliquid whale is still holding around 122,000 long positions with an average entry near $126. The floating loss is roughly $1.8 million, while the liquidation price sits around $22.27.
At this point, they're simply holding on and hoping for a recovery.
My view (just sharing thoughts, not financial advice)
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK 美日联手干预日元，背后可能藏着一层更深的流动性逻辑。 BitMEX联合创始人Arthur Hayes在X平台发文，点出了一个值得关注的技术细节：本周美联储H.4.1报告的发布，可能是理解日本干预资金链条的关键。 Hayes的核心推演 Hayes认为，市场需要关注H.4.1报告中的数据，以确认日本财务省是否将其持有的美国国债用于回购以换取美元，随后卖出美元买入日元。如果美国财政部长贝森特能够提高交易对手限额，美联储就可以用日本财务省持有的美国国债作为抵押品创造货币。 简单来说，日本可能不是靠抛售美债来筹集干预资金，而是通过抵押美债换取美元。这种操作的好处是：既拿到了干预所需的美元，又避免了大规模抛售美债引发美债收益率飙升的连锁反应。 FIMA回购工具是关键 日本财务省此前已在X平台发文确认，日本货币当局拥有多项流动性支持工具，包括酌情使用美联储的FIMA（外国及国际货币当局）常设回购机制——该机制允许外国央行用美债作为抵押获取临时美元流动性。 日本方面明确表示：“我们随时准备在必要时动用可用工具，以支持市场有序运行。” 为何美国愿意配合？ 分析指出，美国参与协调干预的一大考量，是避免日本U.S. stocks looked strong last Friday, but internally it was not a broad bull market. The S&P 500 rose 0.70%, the Nasdaq rose 1%, and the Dow Jones rose 0.53%; however, among S&P components, the number of declining stocks was still 1.3 times that of advancing stocks. The index was propped up by a few giants, and market breadth did not keep pace. The chart shows Friday's closing situation, in order: SP500, Nasdaq 100, All stocks. Amazon $AMZN is at the center of this rally. Its stock price surged 15.25% in a single day to $271.58, while Google $GOOGL, Microsoft $MSFT, and Nvidia $NVDA rose 6.71%, 3.01%, and 2.99%, respectively. Amazon delivered its fastest quarterly revenue growth in over four years, easing investors' concerns about runaway AI data center spending. The market is accepting massive capital expenditures but with a stricter condition: computing power must quickly translate into cloud revenue and profits. Apple $AAPL provides a contrasting case. The company warned that supply constraints could drag down growth, and its stock price fell 7.14% to $308.91. Historical performance is no longer enough; the market demands visibility into the next quarter. The divergence between Amazon and Apple illustrates that current valuations reward not the identity of "big tech" but companies that can prove future growth. The problem is, U.S. stocks are still not cheap. The S&P 500 currently trades at about 20 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, Bitcoin's hashrate continues to decline: miners are surrendering, but mining company stocks are soaring
Bitcoin is experiencing a rare split:
Miners shut down, hash rate dropped, difficulty lowered;
However, listed mining company stocks have seen strong gains.
In recent cycles, miner pressure and BTC price trends have generally been highly synchronized.
This time, the two are separated.
The market may not have fully priced in it yet:
The mining ecosystem is undergoing structural changes.
1. Bitcoin is undergoing a long-term surrender among miners
Currently, Bitcoin's total network hash rate has been declining for several consecutive months.
Miner difficulty has dropped by about 20% from historical peaks, marking one of the deepest adjustments since ASIC miners became mainstream.
The mechanism of the Bitcoin network is running automatically:
Every 2016 blocks, the difficulty is adjusted about every two weeks.
When the miner exits and the hash rate drops, mining difficulty decreases, allowing the remaining miners to maintain a block rhythm of about 10 minutes.
In short:
Mining has become harder to make money, and some miners have chosen to leave.
2. The strangest phenomenon: BTC falls, mining companies rise
Over the past year:
BTC prices have pulled back significantly.
However, some listed mining companies' stocks have seen astonishing gains, with some companies even increasing by more than 400%.
This is completely different from the past.
Historically:
Mining company stocks ≈ highly leveraged versions of Bitcoin
BTC rises:
Mining companies rose even more.
BTC declines:
Mining companies usually fall even harder.
But now:
Bitcoin weakened, while mining companies remained strong.
There is only one reason:
AI。
3. Mining machines are seeking new sources of profit
In recent years:
The largest assets of Bitcoin mining companies are:
Power resources
Data centers
GPU/ASIC infrastructure
Large-scale computing power
And the AI wave has made the market discover:
These resources can be mined more than just mined.
Other services include:
AI training
Cloud computing
High-performance computing
So capital began to revalue mining companies.
The market is buying more than just BTC exposure.
Instead:
Next-generation AI infrastructure.
4. Miners' incomes are under pressure
Another concern:
Bitcoin block rewards are continuously declining.
The halving mechanism decided:
The amount of new BTC miners receive decreases every four years.
Currently, block reward income denominated in BTC has reached a historic low.
Miners' daily income mainly comes from:
Block subsidies
Transaction fees
However, currently, fee contributions are very limited.
The average fee income over the past 28 days is not even enough to cover the subsidy for a single block.
This means:
In the future, Bitcoin's security budget will ultimately rely on higher prices or stronger fee markets for support.
5. Can transaction fees replace block rewards?
This is one of Bitcoin's biggest long-term economic problems.
Looking ahead:
As block subsidies get lower and lower,
Why do miners continue to protect the network?
The theoretical answer is:
Fees.
But the current reality is:
The fee market is still far from mature.
Among the tens of millions of dollars in miner income daily, fees still account for a very low portion.
There is still a long way to go before "fees support the entire network."
6. What is different about this round of miner surrender?
Past:
Miners exiting → hash rate decline→ BTC dropping→ market panic
Now:
Miners exit → AI takes over some computing power demand→ mining company valuations rise → BTC remains under pressure
The biggest changes are:
Miners may not necessarily leave the computing power industry but may turn to the more profitable AI computing market.
7. The real issues Bitcoin needs to face
This article is not predicting a BTC crash.
Currently, the Bitcoin network remains secure.
But it reminds the market:
Over time:
Block rewards are becoming increasingly scarce
Miners' costs are rising
The demand for AI computing continues to grow
The fee market is still immature
Bitcoin must answer one question in the future:
As new coin issuances become fewer, who will pay the cybersecurity costs?
Bear markets are often the most likely to expose long-term problems.
During an upward cycle, prices can mask everything.
But the real institutional challenges usually begin to be addressed during downturns.
Key Points:
This round of declines may not be the Bitcoin network, but rather traditional mining business models.
In the next decade, Bitcoin miners may face a repositioning:
From "Mining BTC Company"
Steering:
"Global computing power infrastructure company."
And this change may be even more noteworthy than short-term price fluctuations.
#Bitcoin #BTC #AI #Mining #CryptoCPO 今天拉得挺猛。
铭普光磁涨停，联特科技15个点，天孚通信9个点。整个光通信板块都在往上走。
原因是英伟达确认量产了。Gilad Shainer在技术论坛上说的，交换机已经开始交付紧密合作客户，自己内部也在部署。
花旗此前上调了四大云厂商2026、2027年资本开支预测，分别到7540亿和1.112万亿美元左右。他们是觉得上半年业绩发布前后可能是个布局窗口。
7月那波跌完，光模块指数跌了30%。之前筹码太集中，这一波出来，短期风险释放得差不多了。
受益方向很清楚。光模块光器件：中际旭创、新易盛、天孚通信、源杰科技。服务器代工：工业富联、浪潮信息。液冷：英维克。交换网络：锐捷网络、紫光股份。
另外说个背景。6月份SemiAnalysis发过报告，说CPO大规模量产要推迟到2028甚至2029年，当时直接砸了一波恐慌盘。今天英伟达这个消息，算是正面回应了。
不过这次说的量产，对应的是2026下半年超算头部客户小批量导入，不是全面放量。真正大规模铺开，要到2027年以后。 Trendforce 所说的 390亿 是2030年的数。现在炒的还是预期，真要兑现业绩，得看Vera Rubin铺得怎么样。
我个人的感觉，方向没问题，今天更多是情绪修复加消息催化这块。Is there any sign of manipulation by market makers on $SLX?
I believe: there are some signs of market maker dominance, but there is currently no evidence proving malicious manipulation by a single manipulator.
Causes:
1. Crash immediately upon launch
* SLX experienced a sharp drop of about 30% shortly after listing on multiple exchanges.
* Such trends are usually driven by selling pressure from airdrop users, early investors, and market makers.
2. The circulating market is small
* Current circulating supply is about 240 million coins, totaling 1 billion tokens.
* The circulation ratio is not high, so a small amount of capital can influence the price.
3. After frequent ralls, there is a sustained decline
* In June, it quickly rose from around $0.14 to around $0.66.
* Followed by a prolonged pullback.
This trend is very similar:
The rally attracts attention → profit-taking → unlocks selling pressure → price continues to fall
Unlike traditional BTC, which is driven by natural capital.
Why does it keep falling?
Currently, I see three main factors:
1. Unlock stress
The market is generally concerned about future token unlocks.
Many new coins will appear:
* Surged online
* Unlock the beginning
* Consecutive months of decline
SLX currently faces similar risks.
2. Overall insufficient funds for altcoins
Recently, market funds have mainly concentrated:
* BTC
* ETH
* A few AI leaders
Funds continue to flow out of small and mid-cap projects.
SLX belongs to:
The narrative is good, but it's not yet the core asset of the market
Therefore, it is easy to be abandoned by capital.
3. Lack of sustained buying
Price increases require:
* New users
* New funds
* New narrative
Currently, although SLX's TVL and products have a certain foundation, they have yet to form a similar structure:
* HYPE
* ONDO
* ENA
That kind of ability to continuously make money.
Personal judgment:
SLX ≈ suspected of controlling the 7/10 market
Features:
* The circulating market is relatively small
* Significant volatility after listing
* Market-making funds have a significant impact
* Prices are easily pushed by big players
But it hasn't reached the extreme level where "the project team's wallet sells 90% of the market."
What is my biggest concern?
Not a dealer.
Instead:
Subsequent unlocks + market heat has declined.
If BTC continues to hit new highs while SLX remains falling:
That means the funds haven't flowed back to SLX at all.
This situation is even more dangerous than a market shakeout by the dealers.
My conclusion
Currently, SLX continues to decline, more like:
Unlock selling pressure + heat fades + insufficient liquidity
Not just malicious dumping by the big players.
Manipulation suspicion:
* Junior High and High School (7/10)
Investment Risks:
* Relatively high美光、海力士持仓合计缩水1.03亿美元，闪迪获资金回流增涨36%头寸
据Hyperinsight监测显示，过去一日，Hyperliquid上美光（MU）未平仓合约价值减少约3937.2万美元，降至1.73亿美元；海力士（SKHX）减少约6412.4万美元，降至3.52亿美元。两者合计流失约1.03亿美元持仓，降幅分别为18.5%和15.4%。
同期闪迪（SNDK）未平仓合约价值由约8812.2万美元升至1.20亿美元，增加3211.4万美元、增幅36.4%，成为存储御三家中唯一录得持仓扩张的标的。
价格端显示，SNDK近24小时上涨约0.6%，MU上涨约0.3%，SKHX则下跌约1.1%；闪迪分别跑赢美光约0.3个百分点、跑赢海力士约1.7个百分点。
大额资金地址的仓位变动显示：
SNDK：新增持仓目前偏向多仓。过去24小时，1个地址增加约251.5万美元SNDK多仓，未发现单地址超过100万美元的减多或新增空仓。。
MU：2个地址合计增加342.8万美元多仓，另有2个地址减多258.7万美元，净增多约84.1万美元；同期2个地址新增约285.8万美元空仓，增量规模偏向空头。
SKHX：无新增地址，现存巨鲸继续去杠杆。百万美元级地址净减多681.1万美元；空头净减空920.8万美元。
头部资金偏防守：
- MU共14个多头、18个空头，多仓价值约4610.8万美元，空仓约6654.3万美元；
- SKHX共37个多头、42个空头，多仓价值约1.04亿美元，空仓约1.36亿美元；
- SNDK共12个多头、10个空头，多仓价值约3744.1万美元，仍低于空仓的4678.2万美元。Spend 2000U above with no cap: 100U per day, yesterday I got 89U
At yesterday's close, the account added another amount: 89.91 USDT, with a single closing yield of 4.59%.
Just one breath away from the daily "guaranteed minimum target" of 100U. But I don't dwell on the 10U gap, because I've never gone for "exactly 100U"—my rule is: start at 2000U, go up, no upper limit.
Why set it at 100U, and why is there no upper limit?
100U is my "minimum effective attack per day" for myself. It's not the ceiling, but the starting line.
· If you keep 100U steadily every day, that's 3,000U a month. With compound interest added, your account can roll from 2,000U to 5,000U or even 10,000U.
· But the market won't give you exactly 100U every day. Sometimes it's 89U, sometimes 150U, sometimes it may be a drawdown.
· So what I value more is: whether every transaction is executed by the system, not whether every transaction meets the standard perfectly.
Yesterday's order was bought at market price, cross-margin 10x, BTCUSDT perpetual, average transaction price 62,754.3, fully executed. No dragging out orders, no hesitation over "can it go a bit lower"—when the signal comes, just call.
Reminder about "Cancelled Commission."
There is a line of small text in the screenshot that many people overlook, but I care a lot:
"Filter through the 'last 7 days' to view canceled market prices, limit orders, and advanced limit orders, and the records of canceled orders are only retained for 3 days."
This reminds me of two things:
1. Discipline is more important than prediction—a canceled order means you hesitated at the time or the conditions weren't met, and you don't regret it.
2. Review your records promptly—records disappear after 3 days, so every day after closing the session, I always take screenshots, write notes, and keep logs.
Why use market orders instead of limit orders?
Many people like to place limit orders and wait for pullbacks, but I chose the market price in this trade.
Because my strategy is not to "buy the dip and escape the top," but to enter immediately after the trend is confirmed. A 0.1% spread means a 1% profit spread with 10x leverage, but if the limit is executed, you might miss the entire rally.
I use advanced limit orders during the consolidation range, take profit and stop loss to protect profits, and move take-profit and stop losses to keep profits running—but yesterday's order, the simplest market buy and the most direct liquidation, were actually the most comfortable.
What does 89U mean?
Based on a principal of 2000U, this yield is 4.59%.
If you can maintain this level every day, the compound interest after 10 days will be:
2000 × (1.0459)¹⁰ ≈ 3130 U
A month later, it was close to 7,000 USD.
Of course, reality doesn't grow so linearly, but direction is more important than speed. I don't aim to win every day; I want to dare to take when I win and lose less when I lose.
Today's plan
· Goal: Still 100U+, but not forcing it.
· Strategy: Continue to focus on BTCUSDT. If the 4-hour trend remains unbroken, if the pullback does not break support, continue to go long.
· Position: Cross-margin 10x unchanged, no additional leverage, no FOMO.
Written for those on the same path
If you are also trading contracts or any leveraged trading, I want to share three words I have etched on the screen:
1. "No limit" is not greed, but not setting limits for yourself.
2. "100 U a day" is discipline, not shackles.
3. Record every stroke, even if it's just 89U, because it becomes an experience of 89U.
Yesterday's 89U position has already been closed, and the record is saved. Today is a new day, 2000U remains, and the goal remains unchanged:
Attack upward, no upper limit.
#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? #美日确认联合购汇 #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history "Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue 21: This article will carefully analyze the current market state from the perspectives of the halving cycle, macro fundamentals, on-chain data, and market trends. Specific trading advice is included at the end. Be patient and read for a pleasant surprise! When exactly can you bottom-fish? How to bottom-fish? Keep reading Yesterday's strategy review: In issue 20 yesterday, short positions were given to Ethereum near 1890~1900, with a high rebound to 1898, then pressured and pulled back again, hitting a low near 1850. Bitcoin was shorted near 63,800, with the subsequent price reaching a high of only 63,779. It's a bit disappointing, with a 20-point deviation to enter, and the lowest hit near 62,745! (If you have friends who entered the market nearby, make sure to reduce your positions promptly according to the article.) Recently, I believe many brothers have felt this way: when prices rise, they dare not chase; when prices fall, they don't dare to buy. After consecutive pullbacks, market sentiment has clearly cooled, and many people have even started to wonder: Is crypto already gone? Will there be no more chances in the future? In fact, real market opportunities often don't appear when everyone is optimistic, but rather when the market is most confused and most fearful. So here's the question: Is now really a bottom-fishing opportunity? What signals should the real bottom wait for? Today, let's dive deeper with Jiang Feng: analyzing the halving cycle from three perspectives: macro and on-chain data. 1. Halving cycle perspective: The bottom may be approaching, but time is still needed for confirmation. As early as November 2025, when Bitcoin's price was still near $110,000, Jiang Feng passed through