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I remember last month $XRP was loudly claiming to be holding up to the decline, so why is it so weak now? Among the four major mainstream coins, it dropped 67%, already the weakest.
1. BTC only pulled back 48%, ETH was very weak with a 60% drawdown, yet XRP, despite smart money and retail investors going long, managed to pull back 67%? And most importantly, this is a typical bearish decline pattern, not a flash crash caused by negative news. This means that when prices rebound in the future, almost every price will have trapped positions.
2. And the token structure is also deteriorating: since April this year, the largest $XRP holder's supply share has dropped from 39.4% to 38.65%. This indicates that major players are slowly reducing their positions, while retail investors are taking over.
3. The rebound is also very weak, with several times being held down at resistance levels, with neither volume nor momentum. I suggest you try not to bottom-fish; smart money and retail investors haven't broken even, and new buyers haven't entered the market. Better not comfort yourself with the idea that "old mainstream coins will return sooner or later."$ASP (Aspecta) 上涨了+20.15%
ASP是专注于AI数据身份协议的Aspecta项目代币。今日领涨的核心在于宏观层面，美联储维持利率不变直接提振了高风险偏好，资金优先涌入小市值的AI赛道筹码。此外，2026年二季度加密风投规模超128亿美元，环比大增45%，AI+Crypto是被重点加仓的方向。ASP作为该板块的弹性标的，在市场流动性改善预期下极易被游资合力推升。但需注意，其日均成交额相对有限，今日大涨伴随的换手率激增可能意味着短线获利盘较重，若明日市场情绪不能持续，回踩5日线的概率较大，追高需谨慎。Today, the Korean stock market remains highly volatile overall. After a series of sharp declines, the KOSPI index has seen a volatile recovery, but market sentiment remains cautious. Recently, the core pressure on Korean stocks has mainly come from sharp adjustments in the semiconductor sector, with heavyweight stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix under continuous pressure, causing the index's decline to widen significantly in a short period. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's unchanged interest rate but cautious signals have suppressed global tech stock valuations and further intensified risk aversion. From a technical perspective, KOSPI previously broke below several moving averages such as the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day periods, forming a clear bearish alignment and the market entering a rapid correction phase. However, after continuous risk releases, some capital replenishment occurred during trading today, and the index briefly rebounded, indicating that some short-term bottom-fishing funds have already entered the market. However, judging from trading volume, the market has yet to sustain sustained volume gains, indicating that the current rebound is more of an oversold repair rather than a trend reversal. In terms of sectors, semiconductors remain the market's main focus. Although SK Hynix's performance continued to grow, it fell short of the market's previously high expectations. Coupled with investor concerns that capital spending in the AI industry may slow down in the future, chip stocks began to take profits in concentrated fashion. At the same time, intensified competition in China's semiconductor industry has also affected the future profitability expectations of South Korean memory chip companies. Since Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix hold very high weights in the KOSPI index, their performance will still directly determine the future performance of Korean stocks. On the capital side, leveraged funds have recently been concentrated in de-selling, with ETFs and some institutional investors holding positionsSandstorms cannot obscure the infrared sight's image. My pupils pressed with eyeglasses, and the target coordinates were: the chimney of the Abadan refinery, three tanker anchorages east of the Strait of Hormuz. The radar echo this morning was off—not a false signal caused by wind shear, but a real network of firepower.
The scope hides a script: the first shot is news, the second is emotion, and the third is the real bullet. The "retaliatory round" Iran fired yesterday deviated the WTI trajectory by 7%, pushing it straight to 88. But I didn't move. Snipers don't look at the first few tracer rounds; I look at the landing point after trajectory correction. Sure enough, when the US airstrike was confirmed, oil prices fell instead of rising—that '88' was a false high, bulls had filled expectations, but now the fireworks have faded, shell casings are still hot, and the market is starting to liquidate overreacting positions.
$XAAPL's stock price line chart fluttered in my side, like grass tips stirred by the wind in the grass of a hidden area. Its volatility is now linked to crude oil, but it's half a phase behind: oil prices have reversed, and it has a sluggish rise. This is a typical "safe-haven cover selling" rhythm—big money buys oil first, capital rotates into stocks, and then prepares to sell at higher levels. They have larger calibers of sniper rifles, but their timing is more hesitant: two weeks of strike plans are still hanging in Trump's decision room, and that "standby" switch is harder to detect than wind deviation error.
I adjusted the diopter of the scope. Wind direction downward to the right, 6 knots, temperature and humidity cause changes in air density, correction value +1.5 units. The current profit-loss ratio is off—the oil pullback from 82 is not deep enough, and the $XAAPL entry point still has three gaps left to fill before the support zone. I don't shoot targets without a point of confidence bounce. A ten- to fourteen-day window of action? Enough for me to steady my breath and observe the next wave beat. Even if Hormuz shows even a trace of blocked exhaust, the real premium will burn.
The wind is still undecided. His fingers were still hanging outside the trigger guard.
#USStrikesIran 🚨 ELON MUSK HAS RUN THIS PLAY BEFORE.
Look closely at what happened.
Tesla went public in 2010, surged after its IPO, and then dropped more than 70% over the following months.
Most people only remember the stock that went on to become one of the greatest winners in market history.
They forget the painful beginning.
Now look at $SPACE .
After its 2026 IPO, the early price action is starting to resemble the same post-IPO cycle.
The excitement.
The retail FOMO.
The sharp correction.
The endless headlines claiming the story is over.It's basically certain that it's over
Storage is rising, but it's really not as good as altcoins
Whether it's $SNDK , $SKHYNIX , or $MU
After going out, I realized that the real storm is outside
If big internet companies continue to reduce AI investment, the storage sector will really trap a lot of people 😭
#DailyOrbit In the early morning of July 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting concluded, ultimately choosing to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the rate range at 3.50%~3.75%.
Many initially thought that no rate hike was good news, but the market showed a typical hawkish pause reaction.
When the decision was just announced, the market briefly rebounded slightly, but Federal Reserve Chair Powell's press conference remarks were hawkish throughout, directly reversing market sentiment.
I. Core Hawkish Signals from This Meeting
1. Huge division in voting: 9 votes in favor of keeping rates unchanged, 3 members directly demanded a 25bp rate hike, a rare split in recent years, indicating strong internal calls for tightening within the Fed.
2. Powell clearly stated: this rate hold should not be called a "pause"; as long as inflation does not fall back, the option to raise rates remains, and a rate hike is possible at the September meeting.
3. Directly dispelled short-term market rate cut hopes; previous market expectations for rate cuts within the year have cooled significantly.
II. Capital Market Reaction
1. U.S. Stocks
Funds concentrated selling near the close, Dow Jones plunged over 1100 points, down 2.19%; Nasdaq fell 1.74%, S&P 500 down 1.52%.
Nasdaq 100 index has retraced more than 10% from its previous high, officially entering a technical correction zone.
The tech sector was hit hard, with storage and optical communication sectors leading the decline; Roundhill Storage ETF dropped over 6%; Micron and semiconductor equipment stocks broadly fell sharply.
2. U.S. Treasuries and Dollar
The market repriced "high rates staying longer," U.S. Treasury yields rose rapidly, and the dollar index strengthened.
The sustained high-rate environment continues to exert pressure on growth tech assets and risk assets.
III. Transmission Logic to the Crypto Market
Dollar strength and rising U.S. Treasury yields lead to risk appetite decline.
Historical pattern: Fed hawkish stance causes funds to withdraw from high-risk assets.
The large-cap market is inherently weak, liquidity expectations tighten, selling pressure above will increase, and short-term rebounds are likely to face resistance. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #美军空袭伊朗，油价冲高回落 🎯凌晨大饼预判成功兑现$BTC
盘面结构指引方向，行情如期走完既定节奏
稳定盈利的前提，永远是管好仓位、带好止损
#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 On the same night, Microsoft surged 8%, Meta plunged 8%—the AI story is starting to diverge
Last night, after the U.S. stock market closed.
Microsoft rose over 8%. Meta fell over 8%.
Same night, same sector, completely opposite outcomes.
The AI story is beginning to split. Some are cashing in, others are still painting dreams.
First, look at Microsoft—they delivered.
Revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year, beating expectations. Earnings per share $4.74, up 23% year-over-year, beating expectations.
But the real explosion was in cloud business—Azure cloud annualized revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, up 43% year-over-year. Growth accelerated by 3 percentage points compared to last quarter, the fastest since early 2022.
Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats exceeded 30 million. Commercial remaining performance obligations reached $678 billion, twice the annual revenue.
More importantly—capital expenditure did not exceed expectations. Q4 capex was $41 billion, maintaining the full-year plan unchanged. The market’s biggest fear of "increased spending" did not happen.
Microsoft’s logic is simple: invested money, now making money. AI monetization is entering an accelerated track.
Now look at Meta—they are still burning cash.
Revenue $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, a record high. Advertising revenue $59.36 billion, up 27% year-over-year.
But net profit was $15.8 billion, down 14% year-over-year, far below market expectations of $18.5 billion.
Operating cash flow $31.8 billion, capital expenditure $31.08 billion.
Free cash flow—only $784 million left.
A 91% plunge from $8.55 billion in the same period last year. The lowest in nearly four years since 2022.
Zuckerberg also raised the full-year capex floor from $125 billion to $130 billion. Q3 revenue guidance of $61-64 billion, midpoint $62.5 billion, below analysts’ expectation of $63.2 billion.
Meta’s logic is also simple: invested money, still investing. When will it make money? Unknown.
Where’s the difference?
Business model.
Microsoft’s Azure sells shovels to all AI companies. Whoever wins, they have to use the cloud. OpenAI uses Azure, Anthropic uses Azure, all AI startups use Azure. This is a toll-collecting business.
Meta’s AI is for its own use. Improving ad recommendations, building AI assistants, developing the metaverse. All investments are costs, not revenue. Ads did grow 27%, but capex rose 83%. Revenue can’t keep up with spending.
One is making money, one is spending money.
One is starting to cash in, one is still waiting for answers.
Zuckerberg said honestly: "We won’t sell computing power for short-term gains."
In plain language: keep burning, don’t rush.
But the market is clearly anxious. Meta’s stock price has fallen for 10 consecutive days.
Retail investors can wait, institutions cannot. Free cash flow is only $784 million, just a breath away from turning negative. Analysts previously predicted Q2 free cash flow would turn negative, but it didn’t—though it didn’t improve much either.
Tonight, Amazon and Apple take the stage.
Amazon: Market expects revenue around $196.4 billion, EPS $1.82. AWS growth is the core focus. But Amazon’s 2026 capex plan is about $200 billion—more aggressive than Meta.
Apple: Market expects revenue around $108.9 billion, EPS $1.89. iPhone is the main growth driver. Apple follows a "light-capital AI" path—no data centers, relying on device-side AI.
Tonight’s key question: Will Amazon be crushed by cash flow like Meta? Will Apple’s "light-capital" approach become the new direction for the AI story?
My judgment:
Microsoft’s story is trustworthy because the money is already coming back.
Meta’s story is still believable, but the premise is—you must have enough patience to wait for the day it pays off.
Zuckerberg said AI has started improving ad recommendation efficiency, 9 million businesses use Meta’s AI ad tools, Advantage+ annual revenue run rate exceeds $75 billion. AI is indeed working. But spending is outpacing revenue.
Two AI stories: one monetizing, one investing. Which you believe depends on your time horizon.
Tonight’s earnings from Amazon and Apple will tell us if this divergence continues to widen or begins to converge.
$MSFT $META $AMZN
#财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ Azure growth of 43% is still not enough: Microsoft Cloud must simultaneously verify RPO, gross margin, and compute investment
The most striking figure in the cloud mainline is Azure and other cloud services revenue growing 43% year-over-year, with full-year growth at 41%. In the same quarter, Intelligent Cloud revenue was $39.306 billion with an operating profit of $15.955 billion; Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion, up 27%. These three figures mutually support strong demand, but they are disclosed at different levels and should not be treated as the same revenue pool to be summed repeatedly.
Azure metrics represent product and service growth rates, Intelligent Cloud is an accounting segment that also includes server products and other businesses; Microsoft Cloud spans Azure, Microsoft 365 commercial cloud, Dynamics 365, and LinkedIn's commercial parts. Analysis should keep these three columns separate, not calling the $59.3 billion Microsoft Cloud revenue as Azure revenue, nor treating Intelligent Cloud operating margin as Azure's standalone margin.
Commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) increased to $678 billion, up 84% year-over-year, with commercial orders growing 10% this quarter. RPO represents contracted but not yet recognized revenue, with differences in contract terms, cancellation clauses, and revenue recognition timing; orders and RPO provide visibility but do not equal cash received of the same amount. Large, long-term AI and cloud contracts also make quarterly comparisons less smooth.
Gross margin is another necessary verification. Microsoft Cloud gross margin dropped to 65%, compared to 68% in the same period last year, and 66% for FY2026 full year. Revenue acceleration and gross margin decline can happen simultaneously because new compute power, GPUs, CPUs, data center electricity, and depreciation enter costs first, while capacity utilization takes time to improve. Reporting only 43% growth would overlook the capital intensity of this expansion.
Q4 cash purchases of property and equipment were $35.802 billion, a significant increase from $17.079 billion in the same period last year; depreciation, amortization, and other items were $11.022 billion. Cash capital expenditures and depreciation are not the same batch of assets in the same period: the former reflects payments made this quarter, the latter reflects assets already in use entering profit and loss over time. Financing leases and accounts payable timing differences also mean total investment is not just one measure.
Product adoption provides a third layer of evidence. The company disclosed Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats exceeding 30 million, and Azure annual revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time. These are official operational milestones, but the former is not single-quarter revenue, and the latter is not Q4 Azure revenue. Published content retains original units and periods, without using seat counts to infer ARPU or undisclosed gross margin.
A more complete cloud assessment should simultaneously answer four questions: whether revenue continues to grow, whether segment operating profit keeps pace, whether RPO can gradually convert into revenue and cash, and whether gross margin can stabilize after capital investment. The first three provide positive evidence this quarter; the fourth still requires verification in future quarters. Therefore, it can be said that cloud demand has entered the financial statements, but it cannot be claimed that all AI investments have been fully recouped based on this.Many who have played with on-chain derivatives often see HertzFlow as just "Now you can open long or short positions again."
But if you really bring in funds, the most worthwhile parts are actually its pools and LP mechanisms, because these directly determine whether your money is being deposited to take over or to cut profits.
Most people still think LPs are just about saving coins for interest, but in
hertzflow
In these leveraged protocols, the LP essentially acts as the trader's counterparty.
As long as someone places a bet on the platform, you must take out your USDT to bet against them. Retail investors open orders and liquidate positions, and the deducted fees and losses flow directly into the pool, allowing LPs to earn profits; When retail investors make huge profits and withdraw profits, the pool has to pay real money to the other party, while LPs bear the losses.
You're not doing risk-free financial management, but providing liquidity to specific markets and taking on trading risks.
Many veteran players dislike GLP models like GMX because of risk hijacking.
Traditional LP pools are filled with various assets. You might just want to steadily earn fees from mainstream coin traders, but the system forces you to trade on highly volatile coins as counterparties.
If an altcoin experiences extreme liquidation or malicious arbitrage, the entire PnL pool will be dragged down, and the trades you didn't participate in dilute the profits you should have received.
HertzFlow's adjustment is to completely chop the pool and implement a one-to-one independent pool model.
When you deposit money in the BTC-USDT pool, your funds only cover the profits and losses of BTC traders. Even if the neighboring DOGE or meme pool experiences extreme market conditions and completely engulfs the position, the isolation mechanism locks losses in the other pool, leaving your assets unharmed.
For players who pursue capital efficiency, this design restores risk exposure very cleanly.
You can actively select mainstream pools with stable historical PnL, high trading frequency, and controllable volatility to earn interest, completely avoiding small-tail long-tail coins that are easily manipulated by whales.
In terms of price generation mechanism, it abandons traditional AMM curve pricing and instead uses RFQ combined with oracles (Pyth or Chainlink) for real-time quotes.
This structure directly eliminates the most troublesome impermanent loss for DEX LPs, because the funds in the pool no longer need to be forced to sell low and buy high just to maintain the dual-token ratio.
Traders execute at near-fair oracle prices, while LPs earn purely trading profits and fee dividends. Additionally, for the protocol itself, as long as the target has reliable oracle price feeds, trading pairs can be quickly established, without needing to build a pool with an initial depth of several million USD first.
But a standalone pool is by no means a cure-all.
Since liquidity is no longer shared, the depth of a single pool is relatively limited, and when facing large trades taking orders, higher slippage may occur. More importantly, it is a severe test of LPs' pool selection skills. If you lack judgment and accidentally step into a stagnant pool where a whale with a high win rate keeps sucking life, your capital loss rate will far exceed that of traditional pools.
So-called independent pools essentially hand over the decision-making power of risk entirely to the fund owners.
Traders rely on pools for depth and leverage, while LPs rely on pools for refined risk isolation.
You are no longer passive cannon fodder for a basket of unknown risks, but can actively choose your market to be the market maker.Imagine going back to early July, when the market was hyping up a big AI storage cycle, Micron and Western Digital soared, and everyone believed the memory chip market could surge again. You watch $BTC dawdle and swing sideways without improvement, feeling that Bitcoin is rising too slowly, so you simply sell all your Bitcoin holdings and rush into the hot US-stock storage market. Looking back now, this swap can be said to have truly stepped into a big pit. Let's calculate using real market data. BTC's low in early July was around $58,000, but it didn't fall further. Instead, it gradually oscillated and recovered, stabilizing between $64,000 and $65,000 by the end of July. The cumulative monthly gain was about +12%. Even with some fluctuations, it held key support without a devastating drop. Those who held hold steadily earned a dozen points in their accounts. But if you sell all your BTC in early July and switch to the storage sector in US stocks, the outcome will be completely different. The sector collectively entered a divergence and crashed, with the massive amount of profit-taking that had accumulated earlier fleeing in large numbers. Leading Micron Technology has plunged from its early July high, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 36% throughout July; Western Digital has also been in poor shape, dropping 27.7% in July; SanDisk is even more extreme, with a single-month drop exceeding 51%, nearly halved. To give a straightforward example, suppose the principal is 100,000 USD. Plan A: Hold BTC honestly at the beginning of July; by the end of the month, your account will be $112,000, netting $12,000. The account is secure and not destructive#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
⚠️Personal opinion exchange, not investment advice
On the same day of earnings reports, tech giants show contrasting trends.
Meta raised capital expenditure but fell nearly 7% after hours.
Microsoft lowered its FY2027 capital expenditure guidance and surged 8.5%.
Key data: Microsoft Q4 revenue $90.01 billion, +18% YoY.
Azure cloud growth 43%, revenue exceeded 100 billion this fiscal year.
Many only see reduced spending, but my understanding is different.
Capital is bullish on Microsoft, fundamentally recognizing the new model of "spending less, earning more."
In the past two years of AI market boom, the market blindly chased and poured money into expanding computing power.
Now the trend has reversed; capital no longer pays for reckless spending but values input-output ratio more.
My judgment:
"Spend less, earn more" is a short-term valuation bonus, hard to sustain long-term.
Basis: short-term computing power supply tends to be ample, existing capacity is enough to support business;
but AI competition remains intense, and continuously cutting investment long-term risks insufficient computing reserves and market share loss.
Microsoft is the first leading company to implement this model, representing a shift in valuation logic.
Tonight, focus on Apple and Amazon earnings.
Whether they can replicate the path of controlling spending and stabilizing profits will affect the short-term trend of the tech sector. During the six-month period of volatility after the halving, how should we re-examine Bitcoin's "safe-haven" attributes? Bitcoin's recent performance has left many people confused. On one hand, after spot ETFs were approved, institutional funds flowed in; On the other hand, prices have been repeatedly struggling at high levels, with even dramatic single-day fluctuations of 5%-8%. Many veteran players began to wonder: Where did the promised "digital gold" safeguard attribute go? Why does Bitcoin fall faster than Nasdaq when US stocks fall? Considering the current #BTC减半周期 and macro environment, I would like to share several independent perspectives that differ from the market: 1. The Temporary Failure and Reconstruction of the "Digital Gold" Narrative We must admit that with the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, Bitcoin's financial attributes have temporarily overshadowed its monetary attributes. ● Phenomenon: Over the past month, whenever the US dollar index strengthened, Bitcoin often came under pressure and declined. This indicates that the current dominance in pricing power is still dominated by traditional macro traders on Wall Street, rather than early crypto believers. ● Opinion: Bitcoin now is more like a "leveraged tech growth stock" rather than a purely safe-haven asset. Only when the global liquidity turning point is truly established (for example, the Federal Reserve clearly initiates a rate-cutting cycle) will its "digital gold" premium truly return. Before that, don't blindly use gold logic to bottom-fish. 2. The "lag effect" of the halving cycle is underestimated Everyone is watching #BTC减半周期 this hot topic, but historical data tells us a detail that's easy to overlook: bullsMicrosoft up 6.6%, Meta down 6.7%: Two ways to spend the same money
Last night, Microsoft and Meta both released earnings reports; after hours, one rose 6.6%, the other fell 6.7%.
The trends were completely opposite, but the market was actually asking the same question: Money has been poured into AI, when will it pay off?
Microsoft’s earnings report answered this question.
Microsoft: Money spent, invoices returned
This quarter revenue was $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; net profit was $35.77 billion, up 31%. But what really impressed the market wasn’t the big numbers, it was Azure’s 43% year-over-year growth beating expectations and accelerating from last quarter’s 40%.
Capital expenditure for the quarter was $41 billion, a figure that would normally be criticized. But this time no one complained, because the investment has turned into revenue: Copilot paid seats exceeded 30 million, commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached $678 billion, up 84% year-over-year.
This last figure deserves a bit more explanation. The $678 billion RPO means enterprise customers are lining up to sign contracts, and Microsoft is holding a large amount of unrecognized revenue. In other words, Microsoft’s current problem is not insufficient demand, but insufficient capacity. This is a completely different issue from other companies burning money on AI.
The logic is straightforward: invest in GPUs, build data centers, expand Azure capacity, then sell computing power through cloud services and Copilot. As long as Azure’s growth doesn’t slow, the market is willing to tolerate this expenditure.
However, profits need to be examined separately. This quarter includes $3.2 billion in Anthropic investment gains; excluding that, adjusted EPS was $4.74, still beating expectations, but operational growth isn’t as impressive as the GAAP 31%. By the way, Microsoft is backing both OpenAI and Anthropic, and the money bet on both sides is already generating book returns—this spending is much smarter than some companies burning cash on the metaverse back in the day.
Meta: Not unprofitable, but earnings can’t keep up with spending
Meta’s problem is different. Revenue was $60.8 billion, up 28%; ad impressions +14%, ad prices +12%, the core business is still solid.
The ugly side is on the other end: total expenses +55%, capital expenditure $31.08 billion, free cash flow only $784 million, down 91% year-over-year.
The 6.7% drop after hours reflects this figure.
The 14% net profit decline includes $2.4 billion in litigation fees and $1.18 billion in layoff costs; excluding these, operating profit is actually rising. So this report cannot be read as a deterioration in the advertising business.
What the market fears is looking ahead: 2026 capital expenditure guidance is $130-145 billion, total expenses $165-169 billion. In other words, cash flow pressure is not a one-quarter issue but a matter for the next one or two years.
The difference is: one is starting to collect rent, the other is still building the building
Both Microsoft and Meta are building AI infrastructure, but at completely different stages.
Microsoft can directly sell computing power to Azure customers, charge Copilot monthly, and distribute through an existing enterprise customer system. The monetization path is closed-loop.
Meta still relies on advertising revenue, then pours cash into models, data centers, AI assistants, and glasses. AI has indeed improved ad recommendation efficiency and user engagement, but there is no clear corresponding line between these gains and the over $30 billion quarterly spending. The market cannot price what it cannot see, so it can only punish first.
One more thing many overlook: Zuckerberg has absolute voting power and doesn’t have to bow to quarterly earnings. This means Meta’s heavy investment will last longer than the market hopes. Buying Meta is essentially buying Mark’s patience and vision. He lost a bet on the metaverse in 2022 but later saved the stock price through efficiency gains. This time’s script is similar, just with stakes several times higher.
Microsoft’s premium is certainty: high Azure growth, scaled Copilot charging, orders lined up for a long time. But certainty comes at a cost—the valuation is already full of expectations, and if Azure growth slows or capital expenditure rises, the valuation will be cut mercilessly. A well-known good company has very little margin for error.
Meta is the opposite: the advertising base is solid, this drop has released valuation pressure, but the market wants to see cash flow stabilize and AI investments produce clear revenue before it’s willing to reprice. Until then, every earnings report could be hit by expense guidance.
So Microsoft’s rise is not because the market likes it spending money; Meta’s fall is not because the market rejects AI.
The difference in one sentence: Microsoft is already collecting rent with AI, Meta is still using ads to fund AI.
My own inclination: for stability and mid-to-long term, Microsoft’s logic is much smoother; for those who can tolerate volatility and believe Mark can turn AI into ad efficiency and new hardware revenue, this drop is actually a good observation point—watch cash flow, not stock price.
Last earnings season, the market was still counting who bought how many GPUs; this round, it’s already looking at who turns investment into free cash flow first. Yesterday’s rise and fall is the first ballot cast at this watershed.
#EarningsObserver: MicrosoftMetaAmazon report tonight
#DailyOrbit #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入, the finance minister apologized for leveraged ETFs
After two consecutive days of sharp declines and multiple circuit breaker triggers, South Korea's KOSPI has seen a strong rebound, with the core driving force coming from Samsung Electronics' better-than-expected Q2 earnings. Samsung's Q2 operating profit surged 1813% year-on-year, far exceeding institutional expectations. AI servers have driven continued strong demand for high-end HBM storage, directly reversing market panic over the storage cycle peaking.
The market showed clear divergence: Samsung Electronics surged, and SK Hynix, which had previously plunged, followed suit. The short-term rebound is essentially a recovery in sentiment after a panic crush. Previously, many retail investors used 3x leveraged ETFs to bet on semiconductors, triggering a chain of liquidations during the downturn. Now, with positive news materializing and concentrated short-selling pressure, the index is rising. However, risks have not been completely eliminated; the market remains concerned about the continued expansion of global storage capacity, putting pressure on the long-term supply-demand landscape.
Rapid cross-market sentiment transmission: Risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific technology sector is warming up, with computing power and storage-related stocks receiving short-term capital support. Mapping the crypto sector, sentiment among AI computing power altcoins has eased, and high-beta ETH is also seeing recovery opportunities; BTC relies on continuous inflows from ETFs, making its volatility more resilient.
Beware of rebound traps; this round of rally is more of an oversold repair rather than the start of a new main rally. Short-term contracts strictly control leverage; do not blindly chase highs; Continuously tracking memory chip prices and overseas capital flows; once sentiment weakens again, highly elastic asset volatility will amplify once more.$ETH 持续的洗盘你遭的住嘛！趋势已经扭转🐮
特朗普施压根本无效！当特朗普直接提到希望看到更低利率！但是沃什在会后重申诺通胀持续高企加息任然是未来选项，说明美联储目前的立场依然偏向鹰派！
虽然说维持利率不变，但是总体来看对盘面并没有多大利好！这波拉升只是因为前期的多单散户情绪压抑太久导致的释放！
目前市场正在消化这波预期，盘面开始明显向下走低！届时卫叔建议当盘面拉高就是你做空的信号！#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ AI has turned the bug bounty into a dump.
In the public report Coinbase handled in the first half of this year:
44% are repetitive issues,
37% are just information prompts and cannot be used,
15% is directly ineffective,
Only 4% actually receive rewards.
So they simply stopped giving public bounties to low-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.
Quite ironic:
AI is indeed better at finding problems and better at mass-producing things that "look like problems."
If you see a project promoting "AI discovers thousands of vulnerabilities in a single day," don't be shocked just yet.
Only if it can be reproduced, utilized, and truly needs fixing will it count as a vulnerability.
$COIN$RE This surge of 22 points and a 5.96M turnover is definitely a tough challenge in today's stagnant market. According to OKX real-time data, at 3 a.m., this bullish candlestick suddenly rose and silenced the bears. I just finished chatting with a few market makers when I heard a rumor that the $RE team is going to do a brand upgrade AMA next week, reportedly planning to ride some modular public chain vehicle, most likely to get ahead of the pack. These days, whether news is really or not doesn't matter; what matters is whether you dare to follow. Looking at the two struggling stocks next to $XSOXL and $SLX, both fell over 11%, clearly draining liquidity. Aside from selling losses, robots are selling each other. Especially $CELR, the 9.9K transaction amount is less than the morning turnover from my downstairs pancake stall. With this depth, who would dare to get in? Even if you get between your teeth, you'll have to get scraped clean. The market always buys when no one is interested, and when the market is bustling with people. Now the market is like a street in the early morning—quiet and quiet, and you never know which corner is brewing the next fireworks. Guys, don't foolishly wait for the news to come out before reacting. By the time the whole internet knows, you'll be the one taking the blame. Let's drink this toast first. Tonight, let's see how much the $RE community can raise consensus. Storage plummets—don't rush to sentence AI to death 📉
Today's round was really fierce.
The market attributes the reasons to South Korea's deleveraging, US-Iran conflict, and risk aversion, but the earlier rally was too aggressive and profit-taking was too thick, which is why no one was willing to buy after the stampede.
However, a one-day crash is not enough to prove the end of the AI rally. AI servers still rely on HBM, and computing power expansion inevitably relies on storage. This industry logic hasn't disappeared just because stock prices have plunged.
I prefer to view this round of decline as a valuation drawdown and realization of unrealized gains. But "shakeout" isn't a cure-all; a lot of drops doesn't mean you can buy the bottom immediately.
Next, let's focus on three key points:
🔹 Can the stock price stop hitting new lows?
🔹Have HBM orders and gross margins been revised downward?
🔹 Is there real capital support during the rebound?
In the short term, avoid flying blades; wait for a stabilizing pattern to appear; In the medium to long term, it's not about buying every storage stock, focusing only on companies with strong enough technology, orders, and customers.
If orders haven't dropped and the technical advantage remains, this time it's more like clearing out unrealized profits; If earnings expectations start to be revised downward continuously, then stop comforting yourself with "shakeouts."
The market can panic, but positions cannot be carried by faith. 👀
Did you bottom-fish today, or should you continue to wait and see?
#SNDK #SKHYNIX #SAMSUNG Data as of: US stock market close on July 29, 2026; Crude oil and crypto assets updated to the afternoon of July 30, Beijing time. Market Overview: U.S. stocks have experienced a relatively complete cooling of highly valued assets. The S&P 500 fell 1.52%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.74%, and the Dow Jones declined 2.19%; $SPY, $QQQ, and $IWM fell by approximately 1.50%, 2.01%, and 1.63%, respectively. The RSP of the Equal-Weighted S&P ETF fell only 0.86%, indicating that the main pressure is concentrated in large tech and AI trades, but small-cap stocks and most industries are also under pressure, so it's not a single stock event. Semiconductor ETFs $SMH fell 4.84%, $NVDA Nvidia fell 3.36%, $AMD dropped 5.60%, $MU Micron fell 9.85%; Data center infrastructure company Vertiv fell 17.23%, while Eaton and GE Vernova dropped 6.31% and 4.56%, respectively. The sell-off has spread from chips to memory, power supply, cooling, and electrical equipment. Long-term US Treasury ETF TLT fell 1.63%, and high-yield bond ETF HYG fell only 0.23%. This is closer to rising interest rates and growth stock deleveraging, rather than credit market disorder. ——— Key News 1. The Fed held steady, but the meeting results were not dovish. The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The resolution passed with 9 votes in favor and 3 against, with three opponents advocating for a rate hikeMany people believe that with the entry of Wall Street and the government, $BTC's story is no longer sexy and beautiful. I think it's quite the opposite—now is the beginning of a new phase for Bitcoin: Bitcoin is being accepted, and in turn, "taking over" and changing the existing power structure.
🔄 The Law of History: Technology Shapes Power in Reverse
History never repeats itself, but it always rhymes. Power always thinks it is using new technology, but ultimately has to adjust itself according to its rules.
Printing: The church originally intended to use it to spread the Bible, but printing allowed ordinary people to gain knowledge, ultimately driving the Reformation and weakening its own authority.
Gunpowder: The nobility regarded it as an advanced weapon, but it lowered the threshold for war and gave rise to a centralized state.
Internet: Governments initially saw it as a propaganda tool, but social media reshaped information dissemination and changed the political landscape.
🧬 Bitcoin's "reverse takeover"
Today, Bitcoin seems to be being "absorbed" by the existing financial system: ETFs have been approved, Wall Street has heavily allocated, and countries are discussing including it in strategic reserves. But from another perspective, when the government and Wall Street began holding Bitcoin, were they truly controlling it, or were they accepting its rules?
Bitcoin's core rules (such as the 21 million total supply limit, transparent ledger, and irreversible transactions) cannot be unilaterally changed. When authorities embrace Bitcoin, they are essentially integrating into a new system they cannot fully control.
⏳ A victory on the scale of time
Bitcoin's operational goal is decades or even centuries, far beyond the timescale of any modern political system (such as a four-year presidential term) or corporate management. This difference in time scale is itself an advantage.
🎯 The real finale: redefining monetary sovereignty
Therefore, Bitcoin's final chapter may not be a complete replacement of fiat currency, but rather a gradual limitation of the unlimited expansion of monetary power. It may not eliminate monetary sovereignty, but it could redefine it.
The real question may not be "Will Bitcoin be taken over by the government?" "Rather, will the government quietly change Bitcoin itself during its takeover of Bitcoin?" ”。
Everyone thought Bitcoin had been surrendered, but the real story may only be beginning.📌 The KOSPI closed down 1.35% with SK Hynix plunging 5.6% and Samsung -0.7%, while the Nikkei 225 rose 0.71%. 📊 This cross-market divergence highlights a capital rotation from South Korea’s semiconductor-heavy index into Japan’s broader rally — a pattern that historically precedes shifts in crypto liquidity flows.
⚡ Smart money often uses these intermarket inefficiencies to reposition ahead of BTC’s next leg. If Korean risk-off deepens, watch for a liquidity sweep below recent Bitcoin support before the next institutional bid emerges. 💬 How do you read this divergence for your crypto positions? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #BTC #Macro #KOSPI #Nikkei #Crypto今日凌晨美联储 7 月 FOMC 会议宣布维持利率 3.50‑3.75% 区间不变，投票 9 票赞成维持、3 票支持加息，属于典型鹰派暂停，没有彻底关闭后续加息大门，直接搅动整个加密市场情绪。 决议刚公布的时候，BTC、ETH 短暂小幅冲高，市场本能解读为利率不变利好风险资产。但仔细读完会议声明与发布会讲话之后，行情快速冲高回落。市场意识到：虽然这次不加，但 9 月依旧保留加息可能性，通胀如果反弹，美联储敢于再次收紧货币政策，美元和美债收益率随之震荡走强，币圈多头不敢大胆进攻。$BTC 对币圈核心影响 1、宏观大逻辑没变：加密资产依旧属于高风险资产，只要加息预期还悬在头上，大级别单边牛市很难直接开启，行情更多以震荡反复为主，利好落地即是兑现，容易出现 “买预期，卖事实”。 BTC 短线冲高承压，反复测试下方支撑；ETH 走势依旧弱于大饼，ETH/BTC 比值继续承压，ETF 资金还没有出现持续性大额回流。 2、短期行情博弈点 接下来市场会紧盯美国通胀、就业数据。如果通胀再度反弹，9 月加息预期进一步升温，币圈会面临一轮抛压；如果通胀持续回落，加息预期降温，才会给加密市场打开反弹空间。$BTC 今晚PCE一出，又有人要卸软件了！！！
大饼现在卡在64000附近，上不去也砸不动，看着风平浪静，实际上多空都在等今晚这颗雷落地
北京时间今晚20:30，美国6月PCE和二季度GDP会同时公布，核心PCE年率市场预期从3.4%回落到3.3%，GDP预期大约在2.1%附近，这两个数据撞在一起，波动很难小得了
PCE低于预期，降息交易容易重新升温，大饼有机会借势冲击64500—64800，真正站稳后再看65000上方
数据重新超预期，市场会继续交易高利率，63500—63700这段支撑就要再次挨打，失守后63000—62600很容易被重新测试
从1小时来看，前面最低插到62660，随后快速拉回64500，说明下方承接不弱，可反弹量能没有持续放大，上方抛压也没有真正消失
现在价格正卡在区间中间，追多容易撞墙，追空又贴着支撑，两边都在等数据帮自己点火
今晚最容易出现的不是直接单边，而是先插一边扫止损，再反手走真正方向
别在数据前把仓位打满，今晚不是比谁胆子大，是看谁还能留在牌桌上
#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议 🔥#财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue breaks 100 billion, while Meta's guidance disappoints—AI story diverges?
A tale of two extremes! Microsoft surged 10% after hours, Meta crashed—the AI story has completely split.
Brothers, last night after the US market closed, two major dramas unfolded simultaneously, with one ending in the sky and the other underground.
On Microsoft's side, a standing ovation.
Revenue reached $90.01 billion, up 18% year-over-year, far exceeding expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were $4.74, 11.5% above forecasts.
What truly excited the market was Azure—quarterly growth of 43%, not only higher than last quarter's 40%, but also well above analysts' expected 39.6%, marking the fastest growth since early 2022. Azure's annual revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, becoming the second cloud service provider after AWS to hit this milestone.
AI products are also strong. Microsoft 365 Copilot paid users exceeded 30 million, up from 20 million last quarter, a quarterly surge of 10 million. Over 300,000 enterprise customers have purchased Copilot.
The most critical point was the capital expenditure guidance—FY2027 is expected at $175 billion, down $15 billion from the previous $190 billion. The market had been waiting for this signal for a long time, and the stock price surged 10% after hours.
Now looking at Meta, silence filled the room.
Revenue was $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. Advertising revenue was $59.36 billion, up 27%.
But profits collapsed—net income was $15.85 billion, down 14% year-over-year, far below the market expectation of $18.5 billion. Earnings per share were $6.18, compared to $7.14 the previous year. Costs and expenses surged 55% year-over-year to $42 billion.
What made the market even more desperate was the capital expenditure guidance floor raised from $125 billion to $130 billion. Free cash flow plummeted from $8.55 billion last year to $784 million, a four-year low. The Q3 revenue guidance midpoint was $62.5 billion, below analysts' expectation of $63.2 billion.
The stock price plunged more than 10% after hours. Meta's stock has fallen for 10 consecutive days.
Why such a big difference in results on the same day, in the same industry?
The root lies in the business model. Microsoft has the Azure cloud platform, so AI investments can be directly monetized by selling cloud services to customers—no matter whose model is used, if it runs on Azure, Microsoft gets paid. Meta lacks its own cloud business, so AI investments can only be recouped by improving ad recommendation efficiency, which has a longer cycle and narrower path.
Zuckerberg said on the call, "We won't sell computing power for short-term profits," but the market clearly has little patience left.
One proves AI money can be made back; the other proves that just throwing money at it is far from enough.
The AI arms race has entered its third year, and the market is finally starting to do the math.
Brothers, do you think Meta's current situation is a temporary pain or a structural problem? Let's discuss in the comments 👇 #财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging?
When financial reports are released on the same day, the market reaction is completely different.
Microsoft surged after hours, with Azure cloud revenue up 43% year-on-year, surpassing $100 billion for the first time in the year. Copilot has 30 million paying users and $678 billion in orders on hand. Companies are truly spending money to buy.
Meta fell more than 10% in after-hours trading, but revenue rose 28% but profits declined, and free cash flow fell from $8.5 billion to less than $800 million, the lowest in four years. Zuckerberg plans to further increase his investment, with capital expenditures of 130 to 145 billion next year.
Both sides talk about AI, but their underlying logic is completely different.
Microsoft is doing "AI + existing business." It didn't create a new product on its own, but instead packed AI into Azure Cloud and Office, making users pay more. Enterprises already need to buy Office, and now with Copilot, they can easily renew their subscription. Azure's AI services are similar: enterprise customers call computing power on demand and pay for what is needed. This model works because the CIO sees efficiency improvements and is willing to invest budgets.
Meta is working on "AI transforming algorithms." Its AI currently does not have a standalone product; it is mainly used to make ad recommendations more accurate and short video retention higher. The problem is, this is hard to quantify—it's hard to clearly say how much of the revenue growth is thanks to AI and how much is normal traffic growth. Advertisers don't pay solely for AI; they only care about ROI. This makes Meta's massive capital expenditures difficult to justify with short-term revenue.
Which of the two models is more reliable?
In the short term, Microsoft is much more certain. It has a foundation built on enterprise payment habits; AI is the icing on the cake, not starting from scratch. Moreover, the 678 billion yuan order backlog means that more than half of the revenue for the next year or two has already been locked in, making it more resistant to risks.
Meta's problem lies in the "cost of trust." The market doesn't disbelieve AI can change advertising, but rather that investing 130 billion can yield equivalent returns. Especially when free cash flow is dropping so sharply, investors don't have the patience to wait two or three years. Zuckerberg said, "Selling hash power for short-term profits is short-sighted," and that's true, but the patience of the capital market is limited.
So how should I choose? My logic is divided into two layers:
The bottom is for Microsoft. The reason is simple: it has proven that AI can convert into revenue, and it is sustainable subscription income. Certainty comes first. I don't expect to make a fortune on this part, but I want stability.
Small positions for Meta are like buying a forward lottery ticket. The premise is that I don't feel bad about losing this money. Meta holds 3 billion daily active users, making it the world's largest attention pool. If one day it successfully runs AI assistants or AI social services, the potential for that will be much greater than Microsoft selling cloud services. But this matter may not be clear until 3-5 years, with countless fluctuations in between. If you can't hold on, then don't get involved.
To put it simply, Microsoft is making money now, while Meta is likely to make big money in the future. I bet on both sides, just the proportions are different.#Real Vision创始人：加密行业的长期逻辑从未崩塌
Raoul Pal的判断：BTC现在“运行偏冷”，但驱动它的长期变量没有消失。
7月27日，这位Real Vision创始人在X平台表示，按他的模型，比特币与全球流动性的相关性达到87%，纳斯达克则达到97%。他的解释是，这类资产主要跟随金融体系里可用资金的变化，单周新闻和市场情绪更多是在解释短期波动。
BTC的反应则更加激烈。
Pal把它形容为年轻、波动大、情绪化，并且仍处在网络采用曲线中的资产。流动性改善时容易跑得过热，收紧时又可能跌得更深。现在表现偏冷，不等于底层机制已经失效。
据OKX现货行情，截至北京时间7月30日14:30，BTC/USDT报约64,061.6 USDT，24小时下跌约0.5%，区间高低点分别约为64,751.6和63,261.6 USDT，成交额约3.89亿USDT。
价格仍在低位反复，符合Pal所说的“冷”，但这一小段行情无法证明他的长期模型正确。
流动性框架有现实基础。BTC没有企业盈利和股息作为传统估值锚，对美元、实际利率、全球货币供应、杠杆成本和风险偏好的变化更加敏感。资金宽松时，缺少现金流锚的资产通常获得更大估值弹性；资金收紧时，波动也会被放大。
这里的87%这个数字很值得推敲。
Pal没有随帖子公开底层数据、统计窗口、币种换算和领先滞后设置。“全球流动性”也不是单一指标，可以包含全球M2、央行资产负债表、银行信贷、美元走势以及美国财政部现金账户等变量。定义或滞后期一变，相关性可能明显不同。
日常消息也没有完全失去作用。ETF资金流、监管变化、企业财库买卖、稳定币供应、杠杆清算和交易平台事件，都会决定流动性通过哪条渠道进入或离开加密市场。
宏观资金提供潮汐，行业事件决定浪有多高。
Pal的长期逻辑需要两条证据同时成立：全球流动性最终恢复扩张，BTC的机构通道、链上使用和持有者基础也继续增长。只有前者，BTC更像高波动流动性资产；采用曲线能够延续，长期叙事才多一层支撑。
“Nothing is broken”不是底部确认，而是一套等待验证的模型。[US Stock Basics 07] Everything You Need to Know About MSFT Microsoft Many friends have been asking about my long-term dollar-cost averaging list. In the upcoming series, I will break down these holdings one by one.
For more detailed real-time operational ideas, in-depth stock logic, industry chain reviews, and exchanges with partners investing in US stocks worldwide, we discuss trading ideas and refine US stock strategies that suit ourselves. Today, the focus is on Microsoft.
In January, I observed a key signal: the stock price fell below the 200-day moving average. From a long-term perspective, this is a phase bottom range, so I decisively started dollar-cost averaging in batches.
Before diving deep into Microsoft's logic, let me answer a frequently asked practical question: Can you distinguish between long-term core holdings and short-term trades within the same brokerage account? The answer is no.
The safest approach is to open multiple brokerage accounts separately or use different identities to open accounts on the same platform, completely isolating long-term and short-term funds.
When principal is only in the hundreds of thousands range, operating with a single broker shows no hidden risks; but once account funds exceed tens of millions of US dollars, risk control awareness of asset diversification is essential.
In my understanding, Microsoft has long been an indispensable infrastructure for modern work and holds the core chips of the 21st-century entertainment track. The investment logic is clear enough.
In the productivity track, Microsoft 365 and Copilot cover the vast majority of computer terminals worldwide; the entertainment segment continuously expands relying on the Xbox software and hardware ecosystem. Microsoft operates one of the world's top backbone networks, with a total line length exceeding 500,000 miles, handling trillions of network requests daily.
The Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report further confirms Microsoft's irreplaceable position in the global market. Quarterly revenue rose 18.3% year-over-year, driven mainly by explosive growth in AI business. Institutions estimate AI annual revenue for fiscal 2026 could reach $37 billion. These are solid, cash-generating businesses, not empty conceptual stories.
Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats surpassed 20 million, with new paid users up 250% year-over-year; cloud business revenue rose 29% year-over-year this quarter, accounting for two-thirds of total revenue. Commercial remaining performance obligations nearly doubled, up 99%, totaling $627 billion.
Based on this impressive report, multiple institutions estimate that through fiscal 2028, Microsoft's diluted EPS can maintain a 17% annual compound growth rate. It is also the only global tech giant still holding the S&P AAA highest credit rating, with a very resilient balance sheet.
Currently, the dividend yield is 0.9%, slightly below the S&P 500 average of 1.1%, but the dividend growth record is very impressive, having raised dividends for 21 consecutive years. The market expects the payout ratio to remain stable at 20% in fiscal 2026, just one step away from the "Dividend Aristocrats" club. In the long term, maintaining about 10% annual dividend growth is highly feasible. Do not underestimate a dividend under 1%; continuous and stable dividend increases are the most direct signal of a company's long-term fundamental strength.
As of May 28, Microsoft's stock price was $412, with a forward twelve-month P/E of 24.55, significantly lower than its own ten-year average P/E of 29. I estimate a reasonable valuation midpoint of about 28 times, based on a 17% expected EPS growth rate, basically matching the company's past ten-year 17.9% compound growth.
Besides stable dividends, Microsoft has been continuously repurchasing shares to reduce outstanding shares. The combination of dividends, buybacks, and steadily rising EPS creates a triple benefit, continuously rewarding shareholders long-term. Looking back at historical trends, during profit growth phases, the stock price rises steadily in sync, P/E remains relatively stable, and dividend yields rise with earnings, forming a positive cycle.
Because of this, Microsoft deserves a valuation higher than ordinary SaaS companies. A 24x forward P/E is very cost-effective at present. Compared horizontally, Google is at 27.3x, Amazon at 30.5x, making Microsoft's valuation advantage clear.
Microsoft has long completed its transformation from a traditional software company to a comprehensive platform of cloud services + AI + productivity tools. Azure remains the world's second-largest cloud provider, with operating margins stable at 45%-47%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 average.
Many enterprises prefer not to build AI infrastructure from scratch but to add AI capabilities within the existing Microsoft ecosystem. Copilot continues to penetrate, driving M365 business growth and turning AI from a novelty experiment into an enterprise necessity.
In the long term, the two irreversible trends of enterprise digitalization and intelligence mean most companies need cloud infrastructure, productivity tools, and AI assistants. Microsoft is one of the few vendors that can provide a full set of solutions in one stop.
In short-term price forecasts, the optimistic target price for the end of 2026 to 2027 is $650. If revenue expansion continues to exceed expectations by the end of this year, the stock price could stabilize above $600.
Microsoft's long-term logic is solid, with a deep moat in AI cloud business, abundant cash flow, and a fully launched AI growth engine. It can achieve sustained compound growth through market cycles, combined with dividends and buybacks continuously rewarding shareholders. It is not a speculative AI theme stock chasing short-term spikes but a platform company empowered by AI with long-term vitality.
As a core long-term holding in the account, as long as AI capital investment continues to deliver returns, it has huge growth potential over the next 5-10 years. The corresponding operation strategy is very simple: combine with your own capital plan and add in batches on dips.
For more refined entry points and position allocation plans, stay tuned. That's all for today's sharing.
Risk reminder: All content is only a personal investment idea review and does not constitute any investment advice. The US stock market is volatile; please make independent judgments and trade rationally.
#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入, Finance Minister apologizes for leveraged ETFs. When I saw this news, my first reaction wasn't that the Korean market had problems, but that any round of frenzy eventually leads to a game of regulation and capital tug-of-war.
When the market rises, leveraged ETFs amplify gains; But when the market begins to fluctuate sharply, it also amplifies panic.
Many people treat leverage as a money-making tool; I prefer to think of it as an emotional amplifier.
When prices rise, it makes investors feel they can do anything; When prices fall, they multiply the risk. Regulation intervenes not because of market fluctuations, but out of concern that leverage is starting to affect market stability.
The finance minister's public apology actually sends a signal: financial innovation can be encouraged, but someone must bear responsibility for uncontrolled risks.
This reminds me of a phenomenon in trading.
Many people believe that trends are driven by news, but what truly drives the market to extremes is often not the news, but leverage.
Once highly leveraged funds concentrate in the same direction, any unexpected event can trigger chain liquidations, causing prices to deviate from fundamentals and enter a liquidity-driven phase.
So in my view, leverage has never been the starting point of a trend, but rather an amplifier of a trend, and also the most dangerous catalyst when a trend ends.
That's also why I increasingly believe in one viewpoint:
What determines the height of a market move is expectations, while what determines the speed of the move is leverage.
Many times, a real market run ends not because the story is over, but because leverage has no new buyers, and the market begins to enter a deleveraging cycle.
So, rather than focusing on daily news, I care more about leverage ratios, position structure, and whether the market is starting to show consensus expectations.
What truly deserves caution is never a decline, but when everyone believes "it won't fall."The AI trade is quietly fracturing. Microsoft cut capex guidance and rallied 8.5% afterhours; the market is no longer rewarding raw spend, it is rewarding discipline. Meta's soft guidance got sold. The read that "more AI spend equals good" is breaking down, and what replaces it is more selective: execution over ambition.
Crypto is holding its ground with $BTC near $64K, but the macro setup is uncomfortable. Three Fed members are now openly pushing for a hike, and PCE data lands tonight after the rate decision. Positioning reads cautious rather than bearish, which means there is room for a sharp move if the Fed or the print surprises. Flat is not the same as settled.
NFA, just my read.
#OKXOrbitTopics #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？
On the same night of earnings releases, Microsoft and Meta delivered starkly contrasting results, revealing the real divergence in the AI race: some companies quickly convert computing power investments into revenue, while others remain stuck in a high-investment, low-return dilemma.
Microsoft's fiscal 2026 Q4 total revenue reached $90.01 billion, up 18% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations across the board. The core highlight: Azure's annual revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, with quarterly cloud service revenue soaring 43% year-over-year, and growth momentum continuing to rise; leveraging OpenAI collaboration advantages, M365 Copilot paid users exceeded 30 million, with AI computing power orders and enterprise cloud demand continuously expanding. Even though capital expenditures surged 70% year-over-year this quarter, the cloud business's sustained high growth and strong order fulfillment prove that AI infrastructure investments have formed a stable commercialization loop, driving after-hours stock price gains.
In contrast, Meta's total revenue of $60.8 billion slightly beat expectations, but net profit fell 14% year-over-year, and next quarter's revenue guidance was significantly below institutional forecasts, causing after-hours stock to plunge nearly 8%. The company raised its full-year AI capital expenditure to $130-145 billion, continuing to ramp up self-developed computing power and metaverse business, yet lacks external cloud business to offset computing power costs. AI value relies solely on advertising efficiency gains, with a long conversion cycle and high investment continuously squeezing profits, leading to strong market skepticism about its AI return pace.
Both companies are heavily betting on AI, but their business models determine valuation trajectories. Microsoft holds the cloud foundation, selling computing power downward and pushing office AI tools upward, monetizing both ways; Meta only consumes computing power internally, lacking external revenue channels. The market no longer simply chases "throwing money at AI"; the core measure of an AI story's quality is whether computing power can be converted into sustainable revenue. $HYPE Right now, it's a classic absurd drama of 'protocols flying, coin prices kneeling.'
Let's start with institutional fund movements. On the surface, Hyperliquid is in the limelight: daily transactions often reach billions, the HIP-3 custom market contributes 60-70% of transactions, and almost all fees go to the Assistance Fund to buy back HYPE—sounds like a money-printing machine. And what about ETFs? When Bitwise, 21Shares, and Grayscale HYPE spot ETFs first launched in May, institutions flocked in, with cumulative net inflows once surging to over $300 million, making for quite a while. But recently? Starting in mid-July, ETFs officially turned positive, with continuous outflows, ending the myth of nine consecutive weeks of net inflows. Big players are even more blatant—veterans like Multicoin and Selini moved their tokens to exchanges, and Hyperliquid Labs itself unstaked over $20 million of its team shares to prepare for distribution. On one side is the narrative of "institutions are optimistic for the long term, repo deflation," and on the other, real money is being shipped and unlocked, and the money is being sold. Smart money? It's more like enjoying a bubble first, then throwing chips to retail investors still fishing at the bottom while some still believe in "invincible fundamentals." Looking at the market again, there's hardly any need for analysis—it's immediately a bear-led downward channel. From around 69 in mid-July, it has been falling steadily, with highs continuously dropping: 68, 65, 63, 60, 58, recently plunging directly to 53.085, now barely catching a breath around 53.8. All candlesticks are mainly red, rebounds are all fake moves, trading volume occasionally spikes during declines, and sluggish as if nothing has been eaten during gains. The MA is winding downward, with no stop-dip structure at all. You say this is a "health correction"? Healthy Hammer, this is a free fall after a high-level distribution, mixed with unlocking panic and institutional cash-out. In summary: no matter how impressive protocol data is, it cannot save the token price that is being continuously sold off. No matter how much buybacks there are, they can't outweigh the collective sales of team + VC + ETFs. HYPE is now flattering itself with high turnover and buybacks, while also using the market to teach everyone still shouting "long-term holding"—in the crypto world, fundamentals are often a placebo for buyers; the real price is still decided by who is selling and who is buying. If you continue to fantasize about "low valuation + buyback = next surge," it's recommended to first look at this big bearish candlestick from 69 to 53, then decide whether to continue being that "steadfast believer." The market won't rise just because you think it's supposed to rise; it will only use bearish candles to show you who the real chives are. $BTC $ETH #微软逆势下调资本开支, rose 8.5% in after-hours #美联储三票主张加息, making PCE a new highlight tonight 📊 $CRCL Real-time full board analysis
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is currently priced at $61.36, with a 52-week range of $49.90–$193.33. USDC issuers are facing their toughest test since going public.
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📈 Support and resistance levels
Resistance above: First resistance is at 63-64 (recent rebound highs and gap areas). After a breakout, the target is 71-72 (mid-July rebound high, selling pressure is real). Core resistance is at 72-75 (with heavy trapped positions during the June crash) and 81-82 (50-day moving average and pivot resistance).
Support below: The first line of defense is at 60.55 (today's intraday low). Secondary support is at 58.68-59.18 (near the July 17 low area). Core support at 49.90 (52-week low and historical bottom) — if breached, it would point to Mizuho's $50 target.
The RSI stands at 42.27, in a neutral to slightly weak range, with the stock price well below the 50-day moving average of 79.56 and the 200-day moving average of 90.41, indicating a bearish medium-term trend. The short selling ratio reached as high as 10.90%.
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📊 Earnings guidance and Wall Street target price
Q2 2026 Financial Report (Pre-market release on August 5): Market expectation of $744.88 million in revenue (up 13.2% year-on-year), but EPS was only $0.18, a year-on-year plunge of 82.4%. The EPS forecast for the past 30 days has been revised down by 7.87%. Q1 actual revenue was $694 million, with EPS of $0.21.
Target price is highly diverged:
· Bernstein: $140 (down from 190, outperform rating maintained)
· Mizuho: $50 (underperformed the market, lowest on Wall Street)
· Wall Street Zone: $50-243
· Consensus target price: $118-131 (implying 93%-114% upside)
· Most of the 20 analysts gave a Buy rating
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✅ Positive factors
🔹 Acquired nearly 1,000 IBM blockchain patents, becoming the largest blockchain patent holder in the U.S., with a pre-market gain of 2.8%.
🔹 Approved for the OCC National Trust Bank license, USDC officially entered the federal banking regulatory framework, and institutional trust underwent a qualitative leap
🔹 Ark Invest continues to increase holdings, with "Sister Wood" buying 218,000 shares in a single day (about $13.7 million)
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❌ Bearish factors
🔻 Open USD alliance besieges: 140+ giants like Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock join forces to launch OUSD, targeting Circle's core market
🔻 USDC circulating supply continues to shrink: down about 7.4% from the March peak to $73.7 billion, directly eroding reserve revenue
🔻 Coinbase's distribution agreement renegotiated in August: Under the impact of OUSD, Coinbase may take the opportunity to demand better revenue sharing, eroding profitability
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🎯 Comprehensive assessment
$CRCL is at its most difficult point since its IPO—plunging more than 75% from its all-time high of $263. IBM's patent acquisition and OCC licensing form a long-term moat, but the OUSD alliance siege and USDC shrinkage pose real threats at hand. Whether the August 5 earnings EPS can hold at $0.18, management's statements about USDC's recovery, and progress on Coinbase's protocol renegotiations will be key catalysts. A short selling ratio of 10.9% means that if positive news exceeds expectations, the squeeze could be extremely severe; Conversely, if the earnings fall short of expectations, $50 is not out of reach. Strictly control positions under high volatility. $CRCL #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, causing a sharp drop in stock prices and sparking controversy #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% Microsoft's earnings report is the biggest variable in this earnings season so far.
Revenue reached $90.01 billion, Azure cloud revenue grew 43%, and it surpassed $100 billion for the first time this fiscal year, all exceeding expectations. The most notable point is that Microsoft became the first major tech company to lower its capital expenditure guidance for fiscal year 2027. Against the backdrop of Meta's nearly 7% drop after hours due to increased spending, Microsoft spent less and earned more, rising about 8.5% after hours.
Microsoft's counter-trend reduction in capital expenditure shows that the AI narrative is diverging into reality. Previously, when Alphabet and Meta raised capital expenditures, the market's first reaction was to sell off, fearing disproportionate returns on investment. Microsoft's earnings report offers a different path: continuous growth in cloud business with a decline in capital expenditure expectations. This contrast is important; if other tech companies' earnings reports can also demonstrate a return path on AI investments like Microsoft, market confidence in the AI narrative may be rebuilt.
This earnings season, the AI concept is shifting from "who invests more" to "who profits first," and market pricing logic is already changing. Microsoft's 8.5% after-hours rise indicates the market's approval of the combination of "controlled spending + performance growth."
For the crypto market, the divergence in the AI narrative will also indirectly affect the sentiment of related assets, but the core contradiction remains the macro environment. The Federal Reserve's FOMC just concluded, with three dissenting votes against rate hikes and hawkish remarks from Waller, plus tonight's PCE data, the macro direction remains the main factor influencing BTC and ETH trends.
$MSFT $BTC $ETH #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud Revenue Surpasses 100 Billion, Meta's Guidance Disappoints—Is the AI Story Diverging? If you only look at the headlines, you'd think these are two companies delivering completely different results.
Microsoft delivered impressive numbers: Azure continues to grow, cloud business annual revenue surpasses $100 billion for the first time, and AI is beginning to truly contribute commercial value.
Meanwhile, Meta triggered capital divergence due to future earnings guidance falling short of market expectations.
But in my view, this is not the AI story starting to diverge, but the market entering a new phase.
In the past two years, the capital market was willing to pay for "storytelling"; as long as a company announced increased AI investment, there was room for valuation growth.
Now, the market is no longer satisfied with "investing in AI" but is starting to ask three questions:
How much money has AI actually earned? Has the profit margin improved? Can future cash flow be realized?
Microsoft's capital appeal is not just because cloud revenue surpassed $100 billion, but because it proved one thing:
AI is gradually transforming from a cost center into a profit center.
In contrast, the market is not denying Meta's AI strategy but is reassessing whether the future growth pace is sufficient to support the current valuation.
This is also something I have been thinking about recently.
Many believe the market is trading earnings reports, but I think the market is really trading the speed of change in future expectations.
A company growing 30% may see its price fall if the market expected 40%; another company growing 20% may see its price rise sharply if the market only expected 10%.
Therefore, what determines stock price is not the results, but the difference between results and expectations.
This is why I increasingly believe in one saying:
Candlestick charts are not the result of news, but the result of market expectations being repriced.
Regarding the AI sector, I remain relatively optimistic.
I believe that now is not the end of the AI narrative, but the industry is entering a stage that truly tests business models and profitability. Future capital will not flow evenly to all AI companies but will increasingly concentrate on those that can consistently deliver results and form a cash flow closed loop.
The AI story is not over; it has just moved from "believing in the future" to "verifying the future." The real market rally may just be beginning. Today, the US stock market fell quite heavily, but I don't think it can be simply understood as the "end of the bull market." This decline feels more like three pressure lines hitting simultaneously. First, AI trading continues to cool down. $NVDA, $AMD, $MU and other AI and chip-related stocks continue to face pressure, indicating that the market doesn't disbelieve AI now, but is unwilling to unconditionally assign high valuations anymore. Previously, the rise was driven by "AI demand imagination," now the fall reflects "AI return verification pressure." Second, oil prices suddenly rose. Brent crude surged above $88, and the market started to worry about inflation picking up again. Once oil prices rise, expectations for Fed rate cuts get suppressed, making it naturally harder to support tech stock valuations. Third, the Fed did not provide the market with the certainty it wanted. The Fed continues to keep rates unchanged, but the market cares more about whether tightening will continue afterward. In a high interest rate environment, growth stocks like $QQQ are the most vulnerable to being repriced. So today, I interpret it this way: This is not just a simple big drop, but the market is reshuffling risk assets. $SPY falling indicates overall risk appetite cooling; $QQQ being weaker shows that big tech and AI trading are still de-crowding; meanwhile, energy stocks like $XOM might actually attract renewed capital attention because rising oil prices will change sector dynamics. My personal judgment is that the AI main theme is not over yet, but it has entered a more difficult phase. Previously, the market bought into the imagination space; now it wants to see three things: profits, cash flow, and capital expenditure returns. Next, focus on the earnings reports of $MSFT, $META, $AMZN, and $AAPL. If big tech can prove AI investments are turning into revenue, tech stocks still have a chance to recover; if it continues to be just "burning money to expand capital expenditure," then $QQQ may still need to continue digesting.$ETH The current operating logic is more like a "value revaluation game" after narrative overdraft, rather than the establishment of new trends. The market appears to have found support at key levels, but the underlying momentum behind this support does not come from substantial improvements in ecosystem fundamentals, but rather from a technical pause by bears following the continued weakness of the ETH/BTC exchange rate. This rebound, driven by price comparison repairs, is essentially a drain of the market's last patience for Ethereum's narrative, creating conditions for deeper structural corrections. From the microstructure of the derivatives market, the skew (Skew) of the ETH options market has quietly shifted to a bullish tilt, with implied volatility showing an inverted pattern of near high and far low. This means short-term speculative funds are betting on the rebound to continue, but the distortion in the term structure exposes the contradiction—persistently low far-month volatility indicates institutional funds remain cautious about medium- to long-term trends. Historical patterns show that when the options market experiences a split of "near-month frenzy and distant month indifference," it often corresponds to a peak in sentiment at a stage. More importantly, spot ETF funds have not resonated with the market. Since the product launched, there has been a net outflow, indicating that traditional allocation funds do not regard ETH as a core asset on par with BTC. This rebound lacks the strongest buying foundation. This "options hot, ETFs cold" pattern makes it difficult for ETH to break out of a strong rally independent of BTC. The main players understand this well, and are best at creating the illusion of volatility during narrative vacuum periods—first exploiting the market's perception of "staking rewards" and "L2 ecosystems."The Bank of England may hold steady for the fifth consecutive time: the shadow of inflation lingers, and the path to rate cuts remains uncertain
The market currently expects the Bank of England to continue keeping interest rates unchanged, marking the fifth consecutive time policy stability has been maintained. Against the backdrop of major central banks gradually entering an "observation period," the Bank of England's biggest challenge is not economic growth, but whether inflationary pressures are truly under control.
Compared to the US, the UK's inflation decline is not steady, with service sector prices, wage growth, and energy costs still supporting prices. Therefore, even if economic growth comes under pressure, the Bank of England cannot easily and quickly switch to easing policies.
1. Why is the Bank of England hesitant to cut rates quickly?
The current UK economy is at a rather contradictory stage:
On one hand:
High interest rates continue to suppress consumption;
Rising mortgage costs;
Companies' willingness to invest declined;
Economic growth is under pressure.
On the other hand:
Wage growth remains relatively high;
Inflation in the service sector is sticky;
Inflation risks have not completely disappeared.
This means the Bank of England needs to:
Controlling inflation
And
Avoid excessive economic slowdown
Seeking balance between them.
If rates are cut too early, it could lead to a rebound in inflation; If high interest rates remain high for too long, it may further drag down the economy.
2. The Impact of Bank of England Policy on Global Markets
Although the UK economy cannot compare to the US, policy changes from the Bank of England still affect the global funding environment.
If the UK continues to maintain high interest rates:
Possible consequences include:
The pound remains relatively strong;
The pace of global liquidity release is slowing;
Risk assets are under short-term pressure.
For stocks and the crypto market, high interest rates mean the cost of capital remains high.
Especially risk assets like BTC and ETH typically require a more relaxed liquidity environment to gain stronger upward momentum.
3. Impact on the crypto market: Focus on global liquidity, not a single central bank
The market is currently entering an important phase:
The Fed is paying attention to the timing of rate cuts;
The Bank of England is focused on inflationary pressures;
The European Central Bank is focused on economic recovery.
Global central bank policies are gradually diverging.
For the crypto market, what truly matters is:
Whether global dollar liquidity has improved.
Because currently, the Bitcoin market is mainly driven by dollar capital.
If in the future:
✅ The Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates
✅ Major central banks around the world have simultaneously shifted to easing
✅ ETF funds continue to flow in
Risk assets may face a stronger rally.
4. Possible future market trends
Scenario 1: Inflation continues to decline
If UK inflation improves further:
The Bank of England may begin signaling interest rate cuts.
Impact:
Pressure on the pound is declining;
Improved global liquidity;
The probability of risk assets rising increases.
Scenario 2: Inflation rebounds again
If wages and service prices continue to rise:
The Bank of England is likely to continue maintaining high interest rates.
Impact:
Market expectations for rate cuts have declined;
Short-term adjustment of risk assets;
Volatility in the crypto market has increased.
5. Combining BTC and ETF funding logic
The current crypto market has entered an institution-led phase.
Future BTC trends to watch:
1. Global interest rate cycle
Lower interest rates → increased liquidity → risk assets benefited.
2. ETF capital flows
Sustained net ETF inflows:
This represents the continued allocation of institutional funds.
Continued ETF outflows:
This indicates a decline in market risk appetite.
3. Trends in the US Dollar Index
A weaker US dollar usually benefits assets like BTC.
Summary
The Bank of England has kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, indicating that global central banks are still in a "waiting for confirmation" phase.
What the market is truly waiting for isn't a single meeting, but rather:
Whether inflation has completely declined and whether global liquidity has reopened.
For the crypto market:
In the short term, the high interest rate environment may still affect the market, resulting in volatility;
But in the medium to long term, if major central banks gradually enter rate-cutting cycles and ETF funding continues to increase, Bitcoin and the entire crypto market still have a chance to usher in a new upward cycle.
Keywords for the next stage:
Inflation, interest rate cuts, liquidity, ETF capital flows.
(The above content is market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.) ）
#财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? #微软逆势下调资本开支, the stock rose 8.5% in after-hours #银行业联名施压, and the CLARITY stablecoin clause may be regenerative #btc#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
Many people, upon seeing Microsoft cut capital expenditures, first react by asking: Is AI investment cooling down?
But the market's answer is quite the opposite — after-hours stock price once rose over 8%.
Why?
Because the market never trades on isolated data, but on whether the data is better than expected.
Over the past year, the market has been worried that AI giants would fall into an "infinite money-burning" cycle: capital expenditures keep rising, but the return cycle gets longer. If this concern persists, even strong revenue growth could be overshadowed by high spending.
The signal Microsoft sent this time is a different logic:
AI business is still growing rapidly, but capital investment is becoming more restrained, meaning future profitability is expected to improve further.
In my view, this is more important than simply continuing to increase capital expenditures.
Many investors easily fall into a misconception: thinking that the more you invest, the better.
But what the capital market truly likes is investment that can convert into profit, not investment for the sake of investment.
This has always been my trading philosophy:
The market does not reward all good news, only good news that exceeds expectations; nor does it punish all bad news, only bad news that exceeds expectations.
Therefore, news is just the surface; what truly drives prices is how capital revises future expectations.
Many times, while we are still analyzing the news, capital has already made its choice through the candlestick chart.
Regarding Microsoft's after-hours rise this time, do you think it is trading on an excellent earnings report, or trading on new expectations that AI commercialization is entering the realization phase? #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
Although the Fed ultimately kept rates unchanged last night, what truly deserves market attention is not the "no rate hike," but rather the widening divide in voting.
Three voting committee members have publicly advocated for a tighter policy stance, indicating that concerns about inflation within the Fed still exist and that the future policy path has not become more relaxed just because of a single pause.
Tonight's release of the US June core PCE is likely to become the anchor for the next phase of market expectations.
If PCE continues to fall, the market may resume trading "inflation under control," giving risk assets some breathing room; However, if the data rebounds beyond expectations, the recent hawkish voices may further strengthen market expectations for further policy tightening.
For trading, I increasingly feel that what truly affects the market is not the data itself, but whether the data exceeds market expectations.
Even a 0.1% change means that if the market had already priced in the price, it might not have driven the market; What truly changes trends are often the information that forces capital to reprice.
So tonight, what I focus on more is not the forecast data, but the first reaction of funds after the data is released.
Often, candlesticks are more honest than news, and funds tend to make choices earlier than market sentiment.
Do you think tonight's PCE will once again confirm the cooling of inflation, or will it become a new catalyst for rising hawkish expectations?$BTC US missile suspected of striking the heart of Iran's oil refinery!
The footage from the scene pointed to Abadan in the southwest.
A new round of U.S. retaliation against Iran has begun!
However, whether the refinery was directly attacked remains unconfirmed.
Once energy infrastructure is hit, oil prices could spiral out of control instantly!
Videos circulating online show missile strikes near Abadan in Iran's Khuzestan province. The U.S. Central Command has confirmed a new round of large-scale airstrikes against Iran, calling it a "strong response" to attacks on U.S. forces; Reuters and the Associated Press also confirmed explosions in Khuzestan province, but the specific targets have not been officially disclosed.
The most critical suspense right now is whether the missile hit the Abadan refinery, nearby military facilities, or other targets. Previously, the U.S. mainly struck command centers, missiles, drones, and maritime military capabilities; If this is the first direct contact with Iran's energy infrastructure, the logic of war will be completely changed.
When the bombing hits a military base, the market trades the risk of escalation.
When the refinery was bombed, the market traded was the energy war.$NVDA $XNVDA Fundamentals remain unchanged, but the stock price continues to test its bottoms 🥲
As of July 30, 2026, NVIDIA (NVDA) market performance and analysis are as follows:
1. Recent price performance
Latest stock price: As of the close on July 29, 2026, NVIDIA's stock price was $190.01.
One-day volatility: On July 29, the stock price fell by about 3.55%.
Monthly Trend: In July, NVIDIA's stock price showed a volatile downward trend, fluctuating from around $197 at the start of the month to the current $190 level.
2. Market sentiment and reasons for the decline
Investors have recently shown a cautious attitude toward NVIDIA, putting pressure on the stock price. The main reasons include:
"Circular Deals" Concerns: Recent reports mention OpenAI's deals, sparking market concerns. Investors worry about possible "circular deals" similar to the internet bubble era, where companies provide funds to customers to purchase their own products, raising doubts about revenue quality.
AI Bubble Concerns: Despite strong demand for AI infrastructure and NVIDIA's dominant position in the field, the market has begun to reassess the valuation of AI-related stocks after two years of surges. Investors remain cautious about whether the AI boom can continue to bring long-term profits!
Market Profit-Taking: After a long period of strong gains, some investors choose to take profits when market volatility intensifies, further intensifying selling pressure!
3. Fundamentals and Outlook
AI Infrastructure Leader: Despite stock price fluctuations, NVIDIA maintains a solid position in the AI data center market. According to data for 2026, its data center business contributes over 90% of revenue, and AI computing demand continues to grow.
Analyst Views: Some analysts believe the current selling pressure is more due to excessive market concerns and emotional adjustments regarding cyclical trading, rather than the structural deterioration in AI demand itself. Currently, the market remains optimistic that NVIDIA will maintain its leading position in the global trillion-dollar AI infrastructure market From a 30% account shrink to an unrealized loss of over 40%, watching the $SNDK in my position slide from 1500 to 1090, I endured almost every day. That anxiety is like a dull knife cutting flesh—every time you open the app, you expect a rebound, but all you get is a lower price. Last night, I couldn't sleep again. Staring at the candlestick chart at 3 a.m., I suddenly asked myself: If I don't have any positions right now, would I buy at this price? The answer is clear—I will, because the 1090 is nearly 300 points cheaper than my cost. The fundamentals haven't changed, just the whole market is cutting valuations. So since I personally believe this is a position worth betting, why cut losses in despair? After figuring this out, I felt completely at ease. I canceled the stop-loss order and deleted the timed market watch alarm. The current $SNDK only needs time. Whether it's the regulatory boots coming in South Korea or the overall market liquidity rebounding, as long as we weather this period of extreme sentiment, prices will recover sooner or later. I used to torment myself between "whether to cut losses" and "whether to add to my position," but now I finally understand that when deep floating losses have occurred, the fooliest thing to do is to repeatedly switch strategies. Instead of being dominated by panic every day, it's better to admit that you bought too early, got stuck, and then closed your account and waited half a year. This week, $BTC dropped to 64,000, $ETH dropped to 1,900, the whole market is bleeding, and I'm not the only one losing. But history has repeatedly shown that such moments of collective despair often occur near turning points. I did the math: if $SNDK goes back to 1200, I willIII. Expert Verdict: How Should You View Grass?
表格
Dimension
Rating
Explanation
Narrative Heat
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
AI + DePIN + Solana — the three hottest narratives stacked together
Token Economics
⭐⭐
Extremely hostile to miners; massive unlock sell pressure; no burn mechanism
Legal Risk
⭐⭐⭐
Short-term precedent is favorable, but the moat is weak
Real Revenue
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Claims $33M, but token holders don't see a cent
Miner Returns
⭐
Your 20 million points = 1.3 USDC says it all
My Advice to You:
1.
Stop pouring in more resources. Electricity, time, and hardware costs all far exceed your returns.
2.
If you still hold tokens, watch the price around the July 22 unlock. There is usually a wave of "anticipation hype" before the unlock; after it, the price will most likely keep falling.
3.
Keep an eye on that "revenue-sharing governance vote." If token holders actually start receiving USDC, the project might have a future. If it's just another pie-in-the-sky promise, GRASS is yet another "infrastructure-grade vaporware token."
Your Season 2 experience already says everything: in Grass's economic model, miners are the fuel, not the passengers.$GRASS #美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain?
Micron dropped nearly 11% in a single day, and some people are starting to call for a bottom. I think it's ridiculous, this is just the beginning, and the mountain peak hasn't even come down yet.
This round of storage prices has been rising for too long and too fiercely. Micron has risen so much earlier, HBM prices have multiplied several times, gross margins have risen above 70%, and the whole sector is telling stories at high levels. Now it's starting to fall. It's not about the end of the decline; it's the logic loosening.
Changxin's IPO was the first signal: China's capacity officially entered, and the number of companies became three and a half. From now on, it's no longer up to you two. Micron itself is still telling the story of HBM demand, but no matter how strong the demand is, supply is starting to loosen. Samsung is expanding, SK Hynix is expanding, Changxin is expanding too. Once capacity is rampant, no one can guarantee how long prices will last.
Another signal is Microsoft's cut in capital expenditure, signaling that big companies are starting to step back. Microsoft has started to take control, and other cloud providers will sooner or later follow suit. AI demand is indeed there, but growth may not keep pace with capacity release; the biggest concern is the early arrival of supply-demand inflection points.
Too much leveraged capital entered the market earlier, and much of Micron's recent rally was driven up by leverage. Now that the decline is starting, leveraged funds are stepping out and the exit is just beginning. The real bottom is when no one is paying attention, not the time when someone is calling for a dip after only a 10% drop.
It's still too early to say the bottom is here. Next up are the lifting of restricted shares, Changxin's expansion pace, and the possibility of a price war between Samsung and SK Hynix. It's not even halfway up, still at the peak. If you want to buy the bottom, wait a bit longer.
#微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading
#财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? " 🌐 In-depth observation of the current market structure:
The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates + AI capex from tech giants, leading to a decline in risk appetite.
Clear internal layers within the crypto:
BTC, as a 'digital gold' asset, has stronger volatility than most altcoins
ETH has relatively resisted declines supported by ETFs and staking yields
Small and mid-cap coins are experiencing liquidity exhaustion, with stronger narrative-driven characteristics
What is truly worth monitoring is whether funds are shifting from pure speculation to protocols with cash flow or genuine adoption.
The oscillation period is a good time to observe structural changes. #加密结构 #宏观"Microsoft is also betting on AI, and Microsoft has already started collecting money. Is Meta still waiting for answers? With this wave of AI, the market is gradually seeing one issue: the AI story is huge, but in the end, it's all about who can truly make money back. Microsoft's latest financial report gives a relatively strong answer. Q4 revenue reached $90 billion, up 18% year-on-year, with cloud business revenue at $59.3 billion, up 27% year-on-year, and Azure up 43%, with full-year Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion. Simply put, Microsoft is not just talking about AI concepts, but directly selling AI infrastructure and tools. Enterprises buying Azure computing power and Copilot office assistants are real sources of income. Currently, Copilot has over 30 million paying users, and there is still a large amount of enterprise demand waiting to be released. But on the other hand, Meta's situation is not so easy. Although Q2 revenue reached $60.8 billion, a 28% year-on-year increase, and the advertising business remains strong, the market is focused on its upcoming investments. For AI infrastructure, Meta expects capital expenditure this year to reach $130-145 billion, with free cash flow also under significant pressure. The problem is: Microsoft's AI has entered the stage of "selling products to make money," while Meta mainly uses AI to optimize ad recommendations and improve user experience. True AI commercialization products still need time to prove. So now, what the market is seeing is not who is betting on AI, but who turns AI into profits faster. Of course, that's itThis round of crypto market rallies is unlikely to see a significant rally, mainly supported by four major fundamental negative logics:
1. Fed Meeting Policy Biased Hawkish, Rate Hike Expectations Remain
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve meeting saw three opposing votes—the highest since 2016—and overall market expectations for rate hikes remain strong. At the same time, the Fed's statement guided the market not to focus too much on a single CPI data, only slightly balancing market expectations without reversing the tight domestic policy tone. The potential expectations for rate hikes remain solid, putting pressure on risk assets.
2. The Nasdaq and storage sectors are decoupling from the cryptocurrency market, and there are signs of capital returning and diverting
During this round of Nasdaq corrections and the sharp plunge in the storage sector, the crypto market did not follow suit. This also means that the logic for subsequent market reversals holds true: once the Nasdaq and storage sectors start to rebound and rise, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to follow suit. Market funds will flow back into the storage track, and the crypto market will enter an independent weak phase, facing downward pressure.
3. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high, suppressing valuations of crypto risk assets
Currently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high. Although its effect is not as severe as direct rate hikes, the underlying logic is consistent. High-yield U.S. Treasuries are stable, risk-free assets that can provide substantial fixed returns. In this environment, market funds will prioritize stable assets and significantly reduce their willingness to allocate to high-risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. Compared to mainstream U.S. stock stocks, crypto assets currently perform weakly and offer lower cost-effectiveness, leading to further capital abandonment.
4. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unpredictable, and the market's hedging effect is about to expire
Currently, the geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran persists and cannot be fully resolved or resolved in the short term. During the previous geopolitical conflict phase, cryptocurrencies did not experience sharp declines, mainly due to negative and positive factors offsetting each other: US stocks and storage sectors experienced deep corrections, while some safe-haven funds and ETF allocation funds briefly flowed into the crypto market, supporting the market. However, if geopolitical tensions worsen further, combined with the recovery of the US stock storage sector and capital flowing back, the original hedging logic will completely disappear, and the crypto market will bear downward pressure alone.
Overall market conclusion and trading strategy
Considering the four fundamentals, it is difficult for the current crypto market to experience a significant rally.
In terms of operations, if the market rebounds and rises, there is no need to panic. Hold your short positions firmly, reduce your positions, and continue to re-purchase, strictly following the established price level for trading.
1. Bitcoin: Short positions positioned above 66,000; it is recommended to hold positions on a weekly chart, with a conservative target at 61,000.
2. Ethereum: Short positions positioned in the 1950–1960 range and above 2000, also holding at a weekly level, conservatively targeting take-profit ranges of 1720-1820.3. Expert Summary: How Should You View Grass?
Table
Dimension
Rating
Explanation
Narrative Heat
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
AI + DePIN + Solana, the three hottest sectors combined
Token Economics
⭐⭐
Very unfriendly to miners, large unlocking pressure, no burn
Legal Risk
⭐⭐⭐
Short-term rulings favorable, but moat is weak
Real Income
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Claims $33 million, but holders get nothing
Miner Revenue
⭐
Your 20 million points = 1.3 USDC, says it all
Advice for you:
1.
Do not add more investment—electricity, time, and hardware costs far exceed returns
2.
If you still hold tokens, watch the price around July 22 unlock—usually there is a wave of "expectation speculation" before unlock, and prices likely continue to fall after
3.
Watch the "income sharing governance vote"—if token holders can really get USDC, the project still has hope; if it’s just empty promises, GRASS is just another "infrastructure air coin"
Your experience in Q2 says it all: in Grass’s economic model, miners are fuel, not passengers.
$GRASS