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[Pharaoh Market Watch]
Everyone is asking the pharaoh: with Korean stocks rising 14% in one day, is the bull market returning?
Pharaoh bluntly said, don't get carried away. This is "a big drop, then a quick bounce," not a trend reversal. 14% sounds impressive, but the circuit breakers in KOSPI are as frequent as drinking water, with the index nearly halved. Today's big bullish candlestick is more of a retaliatory correction to the previous extreme oversold and panic selling, and has little to do with fundamental improvement.
So why has it risen so sharply?
The Bank of Korea previously hinted at possible intervention to stabilize the market, and combined with joint intervention by the US and Japan in the yen, which boosted sentiment in Asian markets, short sellers concentrated to cover. The Korean stock market is highly concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix, which together once accounted for over 60% of KOSPI's total market capitalization. As soon as individual stocks surge, the index followed suit.
What does this mean for the big pie?
Short-term sentiment has recovered, selling pressure in Asian sessions eased, and Bitcoin rebounded from around 62,000 to 63,000. In the medium term, the nature of the Korean stock market's sharp rises and falls—high concentration, liquidity-driven, and policy-sensitive—determines that it will continue to fluctuate.
As always, good deals are waited for, not chased.
Follow Pharaoh and never lose your way to wealth! $ETH $BTC $HOME #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
The crypto market has no long-term interest rates
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen above 5.27% for the first time since 2007.
JPMorgan has moved up its rate hike expectations to December this year, targeting 5.4%. Oil prices dropped 7% in a single day, and the U.S. and Iran returned to the negotiating table. The U.S. and Japan jointly introduced the FIMA tool to support the dollar, allowing Japan to obtain dollars without selling bonds, which has eased some upward pressure on long-term yields.
Three variables are pulling simultaneously, leaving the direction of the 5.3% 30-year yield uncertain. The traditional market is debating a classic question: is this a peak or a new starting point?
The crypto market does not participate in this debate. It simply does not have the tool of "long-term interest rates."
Traditional assets can trade long-term expectations through the 30-year U.S. Treasury—rate hike paths, inflation outlook, recession probabilities—all compressed into one yield figure. The crypto market has no 30-year bond market; its way of expressing long-term expectations is only one: setting the price there and updating it daily.
While the traditional market debates whether 5.27% is the peak, the crypto market’s price has already reacted to the three variables simultaneously: the 7% drop in oil prices, the accelerated rate hike expectations, and the U.S.-Japan joint currency support. It does not need to wait for a yield figure to tell it the direction—its price itself is the direction.
In the coming weeks, one observation can be continuously tracked:
If the 30-year yield remains sideways around 5.3%, while the crypto market price begins to break upward from the current range—this indicates the latter is already pricing in the "confirmation of the long-term interest rate peak."
If the crypto market moves sideways or downward in sync with the yield, it means it is still digesting the traditional market’s uncertainty and has not yet formed an independent directional judgment.
The crypto market’s long-term is not priced by the bond market but is repriced by each block.$WLD $BZ $AVAX $ZEC $UAI $SUI $COTI $XAG $ADA $LINK ##折旧年限延至25年, Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance has been lowered
By extending the depreciation period from 5 years to 25 years, Microsoft has conveniently lowered its capital expenditure guidance. At first glance, this seems like an accounting game, but the capital doesn't see it that way—the cloud vendors' "arms race" narrative was suddenly torn open, AI infrastructure stocks kneel in respect, and risk appetite is like a balloon pricked by needles. When money withdraws from long-term logic, it always needs a place to hide, but at this moment, SKHYNIX's market is twisted against this macro backdrop: prices are falling, positions are shrinking, but volatility has shrunk into a straight line. This is a contradiction in itself—no one enters or leaves, yet prices keep dropping, as if someone is secretly digging a dam with a spoon.
First, look at the 4-hour chart. The latest structural signal is at $884.17, indicating a downward direction. But interestingly, this level wasn't made with heavy volume, but rather with a bearish decline on shrinking volume. There is also a similar structural signal on the 1-hour chart, at $1161.6, also bearish. Both timeframes are saying "down," but open interest is falling simultaneously, yet the fee rate is still hovering at 0.0003, at the historical rank of 0.71—not expensive, but not cheap either. This combination usually means: it's not the bulls fleeing, but the bulls 'playing dead.' There was no panic selling, nor any bottom-fishing funds entering the market. It was as if everyone had agreed to leave their orders far away, waiting for the market to choose its own direction.
While monitoring the market, I noticed a detail: both the 4-hour and 1-hour effective zones have 7, and the volatility levels are contraction. This "double contraction" state has often been the final squeeze before a market turn. But the problem is, the direction of compression is not determined by structural signals, but by who can't resist making the first move. Currently, the price is hovering below $884. If this level is quickly reclaimed, then the previous downward structure would be a false move; But if a long upper shadow with increased volume appears near $884, bears will take advantage of the momentum to push downward, targeting a lower tightly traded zone.
Now, let's talk about the 1-hour signal at $1161.6. This level is a bit far from the current price, more like a stopover during the earlier decline. If the price really rebounds there, it actually shows the bulls are willing to fight back, but only if it first passes the $884 level. So now, the impression I get from the plate is: there's a lid on top and a floor below, but the floor isn't sturdy and the lid isn't thick. The real breakthrough point lies in when open interest will stop falling and rebound—if the price continues to decline but open interest starts to increase, then new bears are entering and there is still room ahead; If the price stops falling and open interest continues to decrease, it means the bears are taking profits, and a rebound could happen at any time.
My own plan is to proceed in two steps. Step one: If the price stops falling near $850 and a high-volume bullish candlestick appears on the 1-hour chart, completely engulfing the previous bearish candle, I will lightly go long, with a bottom line at $835, first targeting $884. If $884 holds, then look at $920. Step two: If the price falls below $835, I won't chase shorts. I'll wait for a rebound to around $850 before considering entry, set stop-loss above $865, and target the $800 round. Here's a premise: it must break out on high volume. If it's a low-volume decline, I'd rather be short on the position.
Back to the Microsoft issue. Extending the depreciation period ostensibly reflects financial adjustment, but in reality, it exposes cloud providers' anxiety about the AI computing power payback cycle. This anxiety spreads to the crypto world, and the most direct impact is that funds will withdraw from projects with strong "storytelling" and shift toward assets with obvious "cash flow" characteristics. SKHYNIX has neither a strong narrative nor stable cash flow—it's a case of being stuck on both sides. That's why its market is so twisted—macro funds don't want it, and short-term funds find it too unvolatile. But it is precisely this lack of interest that makes extreme market moves more likely. Because once a certain direction is broken, stop-loss orders and follow-on orders overlap, forming pulsed fluctuations.
The timing is very delicate now. At the beginning of August, liquidity was already drying up, and with frequent macro events, big funds were waiting for directions. SKHYNIX's open interest has dropped to a relatively low level, meaning that whether it moves upward or downward, it will need little fuel going forward. I tend to think it first makes a fake move—like quickly dipping down, sweeping out a batch of stop-loss orders, then quickly pulling back. This kind of movement is common at the end of low-volatility contraction and is specifically used to punish those chasing on both sides.
So my advice is: don't rush to act, just wait for that "fake move" to appear. If the price first falls to around $820 and then quickly recovers above $850, it means the bullish trap has been uncovered and you can follow up to go long; If the price first rises to around $900 and then quickly falls below $860, that's a bear trap and you can reverse to short. In both cases, stop-loss settings are easy to set and the profit-loss ratio is also reasonable. The worst is the current situation—prices fluctuate in the middle, and if you go in, you'll be repeatedly proven wrong.
Finally, at the 0.0003 level, if the price keeps falling, the rate may turn negative, making it a good time to observe the bottom signal. A negative rate means bears are paying for bulls, usually when sentiment is extremely pessimistic, but it can also be a breeding ground for reversals. I keep an eye on this indicator. If a negative rate appears for several consecutive hours and the price no longer hits new lows, that could be the end of this round of decline.
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#折旧年限延至25年, Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance was lowered Solana (SOL) Real-Time Price Analysis (August 3, 2026)
1. Real-time Price Overview
As of August 3, 2026, Solana (SOL) is priced at $73.14 on CoinMarketCap, up 1.51% in 24 hours. Other platforms are quoting between $72.97 and $73.56, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $1.32 billion and a market capitalization of about $42.7 billion.
SOL has a -0.81% discount relative to the global price in the Korean market. The SOL/BTC exchange rate continues to fluctuate below 0.002.
2. Intraday trend review
Early today, risk aversion was boosted by a sharp drop in international oil prices (Brent crude fell as much as 7.3% to $81.55 per barrel), with SOL rising over 3%. However, the subsequent drop in oil prices sparked concerns about global demand, cooling risk sentiment and causing SOL to give back some of its gains.
SOL previously surged to $74.30 before pulling back under pressure, rebounding from a low of $70.51 before entering a volatile recovery phase. Currently, the price is consolidating around $73, with rebound volume continuing to shrink. The price remains below two key resistance levels: the 100-day EMA (around $75) and the 200-day EMA (around $79).
3. Market Drivers
Network upgrade implementation: On July 29, the Solana Foundation successfully activated the SIMD-0286 upgrade, raising the maximum computing units per block from 60 million to 100 million, and boosting mainnet throughput by 66%. After the upgrade, transaction fees at the 90th percentile decreased by 30% (from 29,800 to 20,800 lamports). In July, Solana processed 8.7 billion transactions, marking a four-month high.
On-chain activity heats up: In July, the number of independently active trading wallets on the Solana network reached 609,000, a seven-month high. Circle minted 250 million USDC on the Solana network today.
Macroeconomic Suppression: The sharp drop in oil prices has raised concerns about demand, and the overall market is suppressed by a somewhat hawkish macro environment, making it difficult for SOL to break out of its standalone upward trend. Market forecasts show a 79% probability that SOL will fall below $70 in August.
Historical weakness: SOL has closed with a monthly bearish candlestick for 10 consecutive months, making it one of the weakest cycles in history.
4. Technical Aspects and Key Positions
Current pattern: 1-hour MACD bullish bars have been continuously expanding, with the price above $73.5; the 4-hour MACD bars have turned positive (0.1536), with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at $73.20 forming support. The 4-hour RSI is about 52.92, and the 1-hour RSI is about 64.57, indicating that it is not overbought. The funding rate was 0.0038%, with stable holdings and no signs of overheating. Overall, it is characterized as a technical rebound recovery under a bearish trend.
Key Resistances:
· $73.80-$74.30: 1-hour upper Bollinger band and recent resistance zone
· $75: 100-day EMA; a reclaim would open upward space
· $79: 200-day EMA, mid-term trend divide
Key supports:
· $72.95-$73.20: First short-term support, Bollinger middle band, and a stop-loss zone
· $72.2-72.6: The first target after the break
· $70.5-70.8: Recent lows and second support targets
· $60-70: Key long-term accumulation zone identified by analysts
5. Summary
Solana is currently in a consolidation phase at $73-74, with short-term technical signs such as MACD turning positive and bullish signals, but rebound volume continues to shrink. $73.80-$74.30 is the first resistance—a valid breakout and holding above $75 could open up rebound space toward $76-78; If it encounters resistance and falls below $72.95, it may test $72.2 or even $70.5.
The core contradiction lies in the tug-of-war between continuous improvement in on-chain fundamentals (network upgrades, new wallet counts, USDC issuance) and macro suppression and a ten-month consecutive downward trend. If the SOL/BTC rate breaks out, it could become a key catalyst for a trend reversal.
$SOL 基本面研报 $FLOKI / Floki（Meme/支付） $3.20
说句大白话：Floki（$FLOKI）综合评分 47/100，评级 早期项目，验证不足。 三层拆开看，公司团队 有现金储备， 协议网络 已有付费使用痕迹， 代币 捕获已落地。
基本面拆解：Floki（代币 $FLOKI），Meme/支付 赛道。 主打 Meme+链上大学。 对标 DOGE、SHIB。 传统中心化平台抽佣 15-40%，用户数据不自主。 链上去信任交易费用更低，代币激励把早期用户转化为贡献者。 客单价 50-500 美元/月，需 USDC 或法币结算。叙事驱动型赛道，熊市使用量砍 60-80%。定位端到端垂直平台。 产品落地：协议层已正式运行，链上仪表盘显示协议手续费正在累积，已有付费使用痕迹。 最新版本 未查到，近 90 天有效提交 60 次。
用户层面，地址 MAU 未披露，DAU 未披露，24h 成交额 $80.00M，TVL 未查到。 钱包地址不等于自然人月活，大额地址集中持仓会高估真实用户量。 收入端，用户费用 未披露， 供应方收入大约是用户费用的 80-90%（归 LP 和节点）， 协议金库收入 $2.00M， 代币持有人回购销毁年化 无销毁机制。 24h 成交额是业务流水不是收入。 公司赚钱不等于协议赚钱，协议赚钱不等于代币持有人赚钱。 代码侧，90 天有效提交 60 次，活跃贡献者 25 人， 最新版本 未查到。GitHub 是 A 级证据可以直接核验。 投资背景，公司股权融资看 PitchBook/Crunchbase（A 级）， 代币私募公募看白皮书和释放曲线以及链上解锁合约（A 级）， 做市商和生态资助是 B 级不代表技术 VC 长期持仓， 技术集成看 API/SDK 接入证据（B 级）， 战略合作和 Logo 墙是 D 级。 NVIDIA GPU 被使用不等于 NVIDIA 投资，交易所上线不等于交易所战略投资。
代币侧，总量 1,300,000,000，流通 950,000,000（73.1%）， FDV $4.20B，下次解锁 2026-Q4（占流通 +3.50%）， 销毁回购年化 无明确回购销毁。用产品必须买币？部分需要，中等价值捕获（质押/折扣/治理）。 和同行放一起看（统一口径，不跨赛道乱比）： 流通市值方面，Floki $3.00B，DOGE 未披露，SHIB 未披露。 FDV 方面，Floki $4.20B，DOGE 未披露，SHIB 未披露。 年化收入方面，Floki $2.00M，DOGE 未披露，SHIB 未披露。 月活地址或用户方面，Floki 未披露，DOGE 未披露，SHIB 未披露。 数字以公开数据快照为准，部分缺失由官方自报或行业口径补。 估值，流通市值 $3.00B，FDV $4.20B， P/S 1500.0x，FDV 除以收入 2100.0x。 悲观看 $3.00B 打 5-7 折，中性区间震荡， 乐观看收入翻倍、销毁落地、企业客户进来，FDV 对应 P/S 与头部对齐。 总结一下：证据不足，叙事为主（评分 47/100）。代币价值捕获已落地（回购/销毁/Gas）。 流通市值相对基本面偏贵，透支预期，FDV 温和。 潜在雷点：短期大额解锁砸盘、协议收入长期归零、代币需求仅靠激励（激励断即使用量崩）。 跟踪指标：协议手续费周度、销毁金额、活跃地址留存、TVL/贷款余额、GitHub 版本发布。 以上是公开信息的逻辑和判断，不构成买卖建议。核心财务指标偏离 30% 以上，结论需要重新评估。
基本面就看到这，剩下的交给市场。
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit[ZORA: The craziest cut in on-chain social media targets 'content traffic'] If the last round of crypto chases was DeFi yields, NFT images, and public chain TPS, now the most exciting new question arises: can content itself be directly turned into tradable assets? This is what attracts me most about ZORA. It's not just about issuing a coin, nor just rebranding ordinary social platforms; it's about blending "posting content, reading content, trading content, and hyping content" into an on-chain closed loop. Previously, if a post went viral, the platform would eat up traffic, creators would get followers, and users would only get a like; What ZORA wants to say now is: a piece of content itself can be minted into coins, bought and sold, disseminated, and priced by the market. This sounds outrageous, but the crypto world is best at turning the absurdity into a transaction. Why can memes go viral? Because it turns emotions into prices. ZORA is even more aggressive, trying to price content traffic as well: a post, a creator, a trending topic—as long as someone is willing to trade, it can create temporary on-chain liquidity. So the focus of ZORA is not "whether it is a traditional value coin," but whether it can capture the real traffic of on-chain social interaction. If users are truly willing to interact, speculate, and spread content coins on Base, it could become one of the most talked-about entry points in SocialFi. But I want to pour cold water on it: this path carries huge risks. The biggest advantages of content coins are their lightness, speed, and strong dissemination; The biggest drawback is also this$CORE Recently, a highly inflammatory opinion has been flooding the social circle: those who keep following updates will definitely profit; On the 24th, institutions made a large-scale entrance, and on the 26th, it successfully connected to the bit power grid; In August, the ten-thousand-fold rally plan officially begins, with the market about to see a double kill between bulls and bears. It is recommended to hold spot positions well and stay away from contracts, with the ultimate target targeting $188. The epic CORE dark horse rally has officially begun.
⚠️ Information analysis and exchange are limited to the highest volatility risk of crypto assets and do not constitute any investment advice
1. Tear apart the narrative packaging traps one by one
1. There is no verifiable evidence of the "24-day institutional entry."
This claim is an old, repeatedly rehashed rumor. On-chain whale transfers, net inflows of market software funds, and address token migrations are merely token turnover and quantitative inversion, which cannot be directly equated with new external institutional funds.
So far, there has been no official institutional announcement or continuous on-chain transaction hash buying to support this; it is purely relying on rumors to create the illusion of a first-mover advantage and induce follow-up buying.
2. Access to the bit grid is a stock plan, not a sudden major positive development
The layout of the bit grid has long been outlined in the official roadmap, representing established technical deployments rather than sudden breakthrough benefits.
Contract function deployment is complete≠ generating sustainable revenue. Only completing the basic technology integration means there is still a long way to go before large-scale user deployment and stable fee income are generated, so it cannot be directly equated with a surge in token prices.
3. Ten thousand times the market, target $188, typical emotional brainwashing tactics
Currently, CORE's price is only $0.019–$0.021, so $188 means an increase close to ten thousandfold. A ten-thousand-fold market requires a super bull market, exclusive track barriers, massive off-exchange incremental funds, and extremely low circulation to resonate under multiple extreme conditions.
At this stage, fundamentals are far from supporting such expectations. During bear market rebound cycles, the goal of sky-high prices of hundreds or tens of thousands is a classic FOMO tactic, creating a sense of urgency when missed opportunities are lost, attracting retail investors to buy shares at rebound highs.
4. The phrase "stay away from contracts and hold spot assets" hides a misleading appeal
It seems to be a good intention to avoid the risks of high leverage in contracts, but in reality, it lowers everyone's risk control vigilance.
Many investors choose to hold heavy spot positions and hold out for the long term. Don't make mistakes: contracts carry the risk of liquidation, and heavy spot positions also mean sustained declines and large drawdowns with huge floating losses. Coins with weak liquidity and ongoing unlocking pressure are definitely not safe deposits.
2. The fundamental reality beneath the celebration cannot be ignored
1. This round of rebound does not involve any new major positive developments; it relies on a narrative of existing assets combined with oversold recovery. CORE liquidity is relatively weak; a small amount of capital can quickly rally the market, and pulse rallies are very easy to spike and then pull back.
2. SatPay is still in internal testing and has not yet been fully opened to the public; The ecosystem revenue buyback plan has been announced, but lacks continuous monthly buyback amounts and transaction hash disclosure, so the actual execution strength remains to be seen.
3. Staking volume and ecosystem TVL heavily rely on token incentive subsidies. Once subsidies shrink, ecosystem activity and capital retention remain untested.
4. Treasury and early investors face ongoing pressure to unlock tokens, so a rebound naturally provides early holders with a window to cash out in batches.
3. The core benchmark for rational market judgment
Short-term sentiment can drive short-term price surges, but grand narratives cannot sustain long-term market trends.
The project's ongoing advancement in technology research and development and ecosystem expansion warrants ongoing observation; But stories of getting rich ten thousand times can only be used as a reference for market sentiment, absolutely not as a basis for trading.
Subsequent assessments focus solely on actionable and verifiable data: SatPay public beta transaction volume, monthly regular buyback execution records, and stable ecosystem pledge volume after subsidies.
Summary
The track has long-term potential, but that doesn't mean a mythical market can emerge in the short term.
There are no "sure-to-win" trades in the market, nor any guaranteed ten-thousand-fold targets. During the collective rebound celebration phase, it is even more important to be cautious of chip selling pressure and liquidity risks.
Vision requires no cost, principal is hard to rebuild, and risk control is always prioritized.$BANK $KAITO $GIGGLE $MU $SUI $ZEC $BNB $XAG $HOME $1000 SHIB ##韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
KOSPI's bullish candlestick stunned the bears; a 14% single-day gain in a mature market is almost a nuclear bomb event. Asia-Pacific risk assets were instantly repriced, with funds fleeing from safe havens and flooding into all beta-linked assets. This level of emotional outpouring usually doesn't end within 24 hours; it ripples across the global market. The CL I was watching showed unusual movement at the end of the Asian session—not following the rise, but a probing pulse independent of the broader market.
Let's first look at the most direct handicap language. The volatility of the 4-hour level has just exploded out of contraction, like a tight rubber band suddenly snapping, while the 1-hour level is still maintaining a normal rhythm, indicating that the big cycle is brewing direction, and the small cycle hasn't caught up yet. This mismatch often means: either the small cycle is being dragged down by the big cycle, or the big cycle is deceiving the cannon. I lean toward the former, because the improvement in risk appetite brought by KOSPI is real, not a self-directed futures market.
Structurally, the latest 4-hour signal at 78.82 indicated a downward turn, but the 1-hour signal confirmed an upward breakout at the same price level. Two cycles fighting at the same price is itself an anomaly worth recording. 78.82 is like a watershed, with bulls and bears repeatedly tugging at this point. Whoever holds their ground first will take the initiative in the next market move. I noticed that when the price is below 78.82, open interest increases while prices fall, which is typical short interest accumulation; but when the price rebounds near 78.82, the growth of open interest slows, indicating that bears are hesitating at this level and are afraid to continue increasing their positions.
The rate is currently 0, at the historical rank of 0.57. This data is quite interesting—it's neither expensive nor cheap, but combined with the background of falling prices and rising open positions, it shows that the market hasn't formed a consensus of bearish expectations; instead, some are quietly setting up long positions. If the price can effectively break above 78.82, these hidden long positions will quickly become profitable, triggering short covering and creating a stampede effect.
In terms of effective zones, there are 11 key price levels in the 4-hour class and 5 in the 1-hour range. The more the quantity, the more likely the market is to repeatedly change hands within this range, with complex chip distribution. But complexity does not equal chaos; instead, it gives us precise coordinates. I focus on the dense trading zone on the 4-hour level, roughly between 77.50 and 79.20. There are too many stop-loss and pending orders piled up within this range. Once it breaks through, the speed will be very fast.
Now, back to KOSPI, the trigger. The sharp rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets will boost global risk appetite, which is a direct positive for highly volatile CL stocks. But note that CL's synergy isn't always synchronized—it has its own rhythm. The pulse of the Asian session may just be a rehearsal; the real direction will have to wait for the European and American sessions to take over. If risk appetite continues during the European and US sessions, CL is very likely to break above 78.82; but if profit-taking occurs during the session, CL may repeatedly fluctuate below 78.82, or even test the support at 77.50.
My prediction is as follows: if the price touches 78.82 again within the next 4 hours, accompanied by a significant increase in open interest (indicating incremental capital entering), I will try to follow up with a long position, setting the bottom line at 77.80, with the first target at 79.20. If it breaks above 79.20 and a continuous bullish candlestick appears on the 1-hour level, then look at the 80.00 round number. But if the price repeatedly resists near 78.82 and open interest starts to decline (indicating bulls are retreating), I will give up on going long and instead observe whether the 77.50 support holds firm. If 77.50 is breached, the 4-hour downside signal will dominate, with bears targeting 76.80 or even lower.
Another detail worth noting: there are only 5 effective zones at the 1-hour level, far fewer than 11 in 4-hour intervals, indicating that short-term chip structures are relatively clear, and once the direction is set, the momentum of small cycles becomes stronger. Therefore, if 78.82 is breached, the 1-hour level movement will be straightforward and won't drag on.
The surge in KOSPI gives us a macro backdrop, but trading shouldn't focus solely on macro factors. CL's market has its own language, and 78.82 is what it wants to say most right now. I choose to listen rather than speak for it. If it chooses to go up, I follow; If it chooses to go down, I'll wait. The market is always right, and the ones at fault are those who try to predict it.
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history SOL currently has a clear advantage in bullish positions, but this is not the capital direction yet
SOL's community snapshots provide both heat and tone, but not necessarily on the same side.
On August 3rd, at 10:00 (China time), OKX Onchain OS recorded 15 mentions of SOL in one hour, including 15 mentions of X and 0 news articles; The total 24-hour volume was 373 times.
The latest hour is 0.97 times the hourly average for the long window, which is nearly the 24-hour average and can be considered 'roughly close to the long window average.' This speed describes new discussions and is not necessarily related to market fluctuations.
The tone of the text is bullish at 53%, bearish at 20%, and neutral about 27%, currently classified as "bullish clearly dominant." 56% bullish and 15% bearish over 24 hours; If there is a gap between the two windows, it should first be understood as a change in the discussion structure, rather than directly deriving a price target.
I will draw these two lines separately. If the tone is too heavy but the speed of mention is slower, it means the current discussion is more positive, but the new attention hasn't accelerated; If mentions are rising and bearish are dominant, it may be risk or fault news attracting people. Even if the hype and tone are in the same direction, it still cannot be directly equated with genuine buying.
Source is another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels respond fastest, and the same topic can be reposted repeatedly; The more concentrated the source, the more the next window needs confirmation. News mentions that an increase does not automatically mean the event is true; the original announcement remains the final verifying standard.
Within 24 hours, SOL's X and news mentions were 372 and 1 time, respectively; One hour means 15 and 0 times. If short windows are more focused on X than long windows, sensitivity should be increased to forwarding and single narratives; If the proportion of news increases, also check whether the same material is actually being restated.
What really matters are SOL's on-chain transaction success rate, fees, active addresses, and main application usage, combined with spot trading, perpetual contract funding rates, and open interest. These data answer usage needs and leverage participation, and popular rankings cannot replace them.
Time differences also need to be watched for. The 373 24-hour samples span different market periods; dividing by 24 is just for comparison convenience and does not mean the same volume of discussion every hour. A single deviation from the mean should be observed first, not as a trend completion.
How can you tell that it was just noise? The next round of mentions increased, but the tone quickly returned to neutral. This time, the sense of direction was mostly due to a small sample size. If the speed of mentions continues to rise and the sources expand from a single community, attention will gradually stabilize. In the end, what can change judgments is still continuous data, not a louder slogan.
Let's note three things for now: SOL discussions generally follow the long-window average, while the short-term window's tone is clearly more favorable, and it's almost entirely driven by X. If the speed continues and the sources become more diverse, and transactions and on-chain data also echo, this observation can be pushed forward further; Before that, put them on the watch list and don't rush to run.(1) SK Hynix (000660.KS) Current Market: On the morning of August 3, SK Hynix dropped sharply. As of 10:31 Beijing time, SK Hynix was trading at 1.595 million won, down about 7.15% from the previous trading day. At one point, it fell more than 7.5% intraday. Last Friday (July 31), SK Hynix just experienced a historic surge of 30% limit-up, closing at 1.718 million won. South Korea Market: The KOSPI index plunged over 5%, briefly falling to around 6,200 points. The Korea Exchange has activated the SIDECAR mechanism for the Korea Growth Enterprise Exchange (KOSDAQ), pausing algorithmic trading for 5 minutes. On Monday morning, foreign investors were the largest net sellers of KOSPI index constituent stocks; Retail investors bought in, while local funds also saw selling. Downward Driver—Profit-Taking After a Surge: Profit-taking pressure is enormous. Last Friday, SK Hynix hit the 30% daily limit, accumulating huge short-term profit-taking, and faced natural pullback pressure on Monday. Korean media characterized today's decline as a "speed correction following a surge." The South Korean market plunged. The KOSPI index plunged more than 5%, with the market's systematic decline dragging down all heavyweight stocks. Foreign capital outflow. After foreign investors set the record for the largest single-day net buying in KOSPI history last Friday, profit-taking outflows appeared today. Japanese and Korean stock markets fell in coordination. The Nikkei 225 index fell more than 2%, dropping more than 1,400 points. Japanese semiconductor stocks have shown a V-shaped rebound, with storage giants surging over 7%, but South Korean semiconductors...🪝 Many traders still judge $CORE by sticking to two fixed mindsets: First, focus on short-term candlestick fluctuations, expecting a single piece of news to trigger a one-sided surge; Second, it is simply classified as a BTCFi theme rotating coin, following Bitcoin's rise and fall in synchronized market movement. However, as the 2026 roadmap continues to be implemented and industry competition intensifies, a brand-new valuation system is taking effect. The BTCFi track has moved past the early dividend phase of "just picking on the concept and getting hyped," and market capital screening standards have shifted: narratives can only attract short-term speculative funds, while sustained cash flow buybacks and genuine BTC stock accumulation are the core foundations supporting long-term market cap. 1. Differentiation Barrier: The Replicable Native Self-Custody System Most BTC staking and BTC yield-bearing solutions on the market cannot escape custody or cross-chain encapsulation models. Users transfer BTC to third-party contracts or institutional accounts, transferring asset control to others, resulting in long-term risk of defaults; Cross-chain encapsulated assets continue to bear the security risks of cross-chain bridges. CORE relies on Bitcoin's underlying CLTV time-lock script to build a staking mechanism, creating a natural differentiated barrier: during staking, BTC permanently resides at the Bitcoin mainnet UTXO address, locked by native scripts, and the CORE protocol has no permission to transfer or use users' Bitcoin assets. Private keys are always in the hands of the user, with no custody or encapsulation or mapping required. For long-term Bitcoin holders who insist on prioritizing asset sovereignty, this mechanism precisely addresses a major pain point: idleness$BTC
According to what we've seen during the past two bear markets, there might still be some additional downside left.
During both the 2018 and the 2022 bear market, we saw an extended period where price moved sideways before the final correction happened and the market formed its bottom.
In 2022, this range lasted 154 days, while in 2018 it lasted even longer at 175 days.
This time around, BTC has once again been trading in a range between $60K and $67K for the past two months.
Considering that bear markets have historically lasted around 365 days, this cycle could end up looking very similar.
Another two months of sideways price action before we see one final flush to the downside and the market forms its bottom.$BTC #KoreaChipSelloff $NEAR $MANTRA $AVAX $KOMA $EWY $1000SHIB $ADA $UAI $UNI $BTW ##折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调
折旧年限从5年拉到25年，微软把资本开支指引往下修。这消息出来，纳指期货没崩，但半导体设备股先软了。市场第一反应不是“AI叙事终结”，而是“现金流游戏规则变了”——折旧拉长，当期利润好看，但后续的替换周期被无限推后，等于告诉市场：别指望我明年再大规模买芯片。资金从这个板块撤出来，总得找地方去，加密货币这边，尤其是存储芯片概念相关的代币，反而成了承接池。
SNDK这名字，懂的人自然懂，不懂的说了也白说。它跟存储芯片周期绑定得极深，微软砍资本开支，理论上利空，但盘面走的是另一套逻辑——利空落地即利好，因为市场早就把最坏的预期打进去了。现在4小时图上的波动率是正常水平，1小时图反而在收缩，这说明多空双方都在等一个引爆点，谁先动手谁被动。
看盘面细节。4小时级别最近一次结构信号出现在972.2，方向是向下的，但有意思的是，1小时级别在1266.99也出现了一个结构信号，方向却是向上的。这两个数字差得离谱，说明市场内部极度撕裂——大周期看空，小周期看多，典型的震荡筑底特征。如果价格能站稳1266上方，并且1小时图上的波动率开始放大，那4小时级别的空头结构大概率会被修复，反弹的第一目标不是前高，而是那个没人关注的缺口位。
持仓数据更有意思。价格在涨，但未平仓合约在跌，这是空头回补的典型特征，不是新多进场。费率是0，分位数只有0.07，说明杠杆资金根本没兴趣参与，全是现货在硬扛。这种行情最危险也最安全——危险在于，一旦现货买盘枯竭，价格会瞬间塌方；安全在于，只要有人敢在这个位置放量，空头回补的力度会非常恐怖。
有效区域方面，4小时级别有两个，1小时级别有四个。别问我具体在哪，自己看图。我只能说，如果价格跌到4小时那个下方区域，并且出现长下影线，我会毫不犹豫接一点，止损放在那个区域的最低点下面，第一目标看回1小时级别的中间区域，第二目标看4小时级别的上方区域。如果价格直接往上冲，不回调，那我不追，等它冲高回落再说。
微软这事儿，本质上是把“AI军备竞赛”的叙事从“无限投入”改成了“精细化运营”。这对SNDK这种存储芯片代币是短期利空，中期利好——因为大厂不买新设备了，但存量设备的维护和升级还得用存储，而且折旧年限拉长，意味着旧设备的性能瓶颈会提前暴露，反而催生升级需求。市场现在还没反应过来这个逻辑，等反应过来，价格早就飞了。
别问我目标价，我不算命。我只知道，现在这个位置，向下空间有限，向上空间打开需要催化剂。催化剂可能是某个大厂突然宣布存储涨价，也可能是某个机构突然增持SNDK，甚至可能是某个交易所上线永续合约。这些都是不可预测的，但盘面的结构已经告诉我，多空双方在这个位置达成了暂时的平衡，谁先打破平衡，谁就能吃到下一波肉。
操作上，我现在的仓位是轻仓试探，如果价格在1小时级别那个向上信号附近反复震荡，并且波动率继续收缩，我会加仓。如果价格直接跌破4小时级别那个向下信号的位置，我会止损离场，等它重新站稳再说。这不是犹豫，这是纪律。
最后说一句，别把SNDK当成长线投资标的，它更适合波段操作。存储芯片周期太短，情绪波动太大，拿长线容易坐过山车。你要么快进快出，要么就别碰。市场不缺机会，缺的是耐心和纪律。
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。——
#折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调 #30-year US Treasury Bonds, a Peak or a New Starting Point? Is a New Financial Storm Approaching?
The market may be ignoring a dangerous signal
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, a new high since 2007
Many are focused on the stock market, AI, and rate cut expectations, but the real "anchor" determining the fate of global assets is shaking violently
The surge in US Treasury yields appears to be an interest rate issue on the surface, but behind it lies a more frightening concern:
The ghost of inflation may be returning
Of course, it’s still too early to say a financial crisis is certain
But history tells us the truly dangerous moment is never the day a crisis breaks out, but when the market starts to ignore risks
And now, several danger signals are appearing simultaneously:
US Treasury yields continue to rise;
Inflation expectations are repeatedly heating up;
Oil prices are strengthening again;
Divergence in Federal Reserve policy direction
After the July 29 Federal Reserve meeting, the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly broke through 5.27%
What does this number mean?
It means the market is repricing the future
Many see the June PCE month-over-month decline and think inflation is over
But the market never trades on yesterday’s data, but on tomorrow’s risks
PCE is a report card already issued
While US Treasury yields are the market’s forecast for the next exam results.
What the market truly fears now is:
If oil prices rise again, will inflation reignite?
If the US economy remains strong, will the Fed be forced to maintain high rates or even turn hawkish again?
If US-Iran tensions worsen, energy prices could become the next hidden bomb
Oil is not an ordinary commodity
It’s like a fuse buried in the economic system
Once ignited, it quickly transmits to transportation costs, corporate profits, consumer prices, ultimately pushing inflation expectations higher again
What’s more troublesome is that the US economy is not showing clear signs of slowing down
Domestic demand remains strong in Q2, indicating high rates haven’t fully crushed the economy
The more resilient the economy, the less reason the Fed has to cut rates
And the 30-year Treasury yield breaking out of a long-term range seems more like a warning to the market:
The era of valuation expansion driven by low interest rates over the past decade is undergoing reexamination
Looking back, every rapid rise in US Treasury yields has dealt a huge blow to risk assets
In 2022, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes caused Treasury yields to soar, triggering a valuation reshuffle in the US tech sector
Before the 2008 financial crisis, the market similarly underestimated the destructive power of combined debt, interest rate, and financial system risks
Today’s market is like a fast-moving ship
AI is the engine
Corporate profits are the fuel
And US Treasury yields are the increasingly turbulent waves
The faster the ship sails, the bigger the waves, and the more the hidden risks cannot be ignored
I believe the three biggest risks for US stocks in the second half of the year are:
First, whether the 30-year Treasury yield breaks 5.3%, lifting the global asset valuation anchor again;
Second, whether oil prices surge again due to geopolitical conflicts, triggering a second round of inflation shocks;
Third, whether the AI investment frenzy can truly deliver profits—if capital inflows outpace profit realization, overvalued assets may face repricing
My judgment:
It’s not yet time to declare "the financial crisis is here"
But the market is entering a highly sensitive danger window
From August to year-end, US stocks may no longer experience the mindless rallies of the past
The real contest ahead will be among:
Valuations
Liquidity
Economic reality
When markets rise, all assets enjoy the party
But when the tide recedes, only then will we know which assets are real and which are bubbles
The market’s test may just be beginning $BTC Fundamental Research Report $WIF / dogwifhat (Meme/Pay) $3.20
Essentially: dogwifhat ($WIF) has an overall score of 52/100, with a rating that narrative is more important than implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's start with projects: dogwifhat (token $WIF), Meme/Payments track. Focusing on Solana Meme. Benchmarked against PEPE and BONK. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Comparing with peers (unified standard, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market cap, dogwifhat $3.00B, PEPE undisclosed, BONK undisclosed. For FDV, dogwifhat $4.20B, PEPE undisclosed, BONK undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, dogwifhat $2.00M, PEPE undisclosed, BONK undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, dogwifhat has not disclosed, PEPE has not disclosed, BONK has not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In short: solid fundamentals (score 52/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Main risks: short-term massive unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break down, usage collapses). Next, focus on these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, and GitHub version release. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
Logic gives you this, the decision is yours.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit$BTC Trump Media (DJT) sold off its Bitcoin investments at massive losses, mainly signaling that institutional investors are forced to cut losses due to market downturns, and its symbolic significance may outweigh the actual impact on the market. 📉 Event Review: A "Cash Cut" After Buying at a High Price · Buy: In July-August 2025, purchase 11,542 BTC at an average price of about $118,529, with a total investment of about $1.368 billion. Selling: By 2026, a total of 7,281 BTC have been sold, with an average price of only about $74,860. Losses: Realized losses of approximately $318 million, plus unrealized losses from remaining positions, with cumulative losses/floating losses reaching $555 million. Latest move: On August 2, 2,628 BTC (about $165 million) were transferred into Crypto.com, suspected to be preparing for sale. 🔍 Signal Interpretation: More Than Just "Trump's" Failure · Signals of institutional "surrender": This is not an isolated incident. Many institutions that bought at the 2024 bull market highs (such as KULR Technology) are being forced to sell. Since its peak in 2025, the total value of corporate Bitcoin has evaporated by about $49 billion. The Coinbase premium index has remained negative since May, indicating that U.S. institutions have been selling off. Short-term pressure on Bitcoin's price: Although the company's selling volume has limited impact on average daily trading volume, this "forced selling" behavior can dampen market sentiment, creating a negative cycle. At present#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
$BICO
今天这个事有点意思——Spark 直接说消费者应用无限期搁置，转头去做 B2B2C 模式了。然后 Robinhood 那边二季度预测市场收入居然反超了加密货币交易收入，我第一反应是 DeFi 概念股和预测市场代币那边短线都在动，BICO 24小时涨了 31% 多。我为什么觉得这事儿挺关键的呢——这不单纯是业务调整，更像是一个信号：加密收入的大头正在从"交易手续费"慢慢挪到"事件合约"上。
资金这条线我是这么看的：Robinhood 事件合约一个季度就干了 1.56 亿美元，加密货币交易收入才 1 亿，还同比跌了 38%。说明散户对价格博弈的兴趣真的在降温，反而对"结果对赌"这种玩法越来越上头。Spark 放弃 C 端，转去做 Robinhood 这类机构的底层抵押品供应商，说白点就是把 DeFi 的流动性打包好，卖给传统金融入口。这种玩法下，BICO 这种做预言机或者数据索引的基础设施，反而比交易所代币更能吃到事件合约爆发的红利。
联动推演一下：如果 BTC 继续在窄幅区间里磨，资金大概率会去找有独立逻辑的赛道。ETH 的 Layer 2 生态里，预测市场和 DeFi 中间件会跟着 Robinhood 的财报节奏走。SOL 高吞吐的特性确实适合高频事件结算，但短期更多是情绪联动。BICO 这波能不能续上，关键看资金是不是把它归类成"事件合约基础设施"，而不是单纯的小市值炒作。
两个观察条件放这儿：第一，BTC 能站稳当前区间并且放量突破的话，风险偏好回来，BICO 这种高 beta 标的还能继续冲一冲；第二，Robinhood 下季度事件合约收入如果环比继续涨，但加密货币交易收入还没回暖，资金就会加速从交易类代币撤出来，往预测市场相关项目里挤。
风险提醒还是要说：预测市场收入暴增有一部分是季度性因素，像美国大选这种大事件驱动，不可能一直持续。BICO 单日 30% 的涨幅已经提前兑现了一些预期，大盘一回调或者事件合约热度降下来，回撤幅度不会小。Market Flash: Trump withdraws strikes on Iran before waiting for a swift deal—the clause to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be the single macro boost for Bitcoin since the June ceasefire
According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to cancel the originally planned strike against Iran on the condition that a deal "can be reached quickly," after Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had previously stated they were pushing for an agreement. Trump said Israel has also agreed to join his commitment to delay action. The relevant provisions include the immediate and comprehensive reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of Iran's nuclear threat—both conditions that would simultaneously remove the oil price risk premium that has kept Brent crude above $90 and end the main inflation transmission channels that prevent the Fed from unleashing a more dovish interest rate path. This move came after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump not to carry out new strikes (according to Axios). This is because the U.S. military had previously been instructed to launch a new strike on Iran this weekend, following Trump's vow at Friday's cabinet meeting to strike Iran "very hard." Due to the conflict that began on February 28 and now marks its sixth month, Brent crude closed above $90 last week—a sharp increase from below $72 earlier last month—as the conflict repeatedly disrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world's oil and gas supply.
Why the deal terms matter—Hormuz and nuclear elements are considered together
The terms Trump has announced are the most comprehensive single settlement framework since the June 19 ceasefire MOU—and structurally more demanding ones. The June MOU called for a halt to hostilities; The current framework additionally demands two conditions: the immediate and comprehensive reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to Iran's nuclear threat. This combination is significant because each condition corresponds to a different inflation transmission channel.
The immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in Iran is a key condition for the oil market. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil and gas supply, has been the main mechanism driving this conflict to push Brent from below $72 in early July to above $90 by the end of this week, and to above $100 at several points in the upgrade cycle. The full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will immediately begin to reduce the approximately $18-25 oil price risk premium accumulated since the outbreak of the conflict; Brent may retreat to the $65-72 range corresponding to the June ceasefire. This drop in oil prices will lower inflation (CPI) expectations, decrease the probability of a Fed rate hike, and send out macro "permission" signals—exactly what structural buying for Bitcoin requires—to push it above $67,250 and move toward Bitfinex's short-term holder cost base of $68,500.
This nuclear commitment directly points to the risks of a longer cycle: the "endgame scenario" of conflict—that is, military action by the U.S. or Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities—has been priced in at the tail of oil markets. If it can be formalized and verifiable that Iran's commitment to end its nuclear threat, it will reduce the probability of the most extreme escalations partially priced in by the market since February 28.
Stop-Start mode
The six-month conflict has produced multiple signals of a ceasefire, but all have failed. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on June 19 was a formal agreement, but it collapsed within weeks. The wording Trump began the deal on July 28—"Now is a good time to reach an agreement," "I want to avoid attacking bridges and power plants"—was replaced within 36 hours by "We will strike them hard, and they will be hit just as hard," confirming the ballistic missile exchange between Iran and Jordan. The most recent Friday cabinet meeting included Trump's vow to "strike very hard" on Iran—and the same meeting also produced the strike order for this weekend; The current cancellation actions are reversing these orders.
This conditional statement—"subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL"—preserves Trump's ability to immediately resume strike operations if negotiations stall or if Iran fails to meet the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear commitments within the timeframe Trump considers "fast enough." The pattern of this round of conflict diplomacy is that conditions change faster than the oil price market can sustainably and steadily reprice. In the past, all ceasefire signals triggered oil price drops were partially or fully reversed within 48-72 hours after diplomatic signals proved premature.
Read-Through mapping between oil products and crypto markets
Brent crude oil climbed from below $72 at the beginning of last month to above $90 by the end of this week—and even surged above $100 during the steepest phase of the upgrade—a macro headwind that had persisted throughout July, dragging down Bitcoin and the crypto market. The correlation between the two is direct: rising oil prices push up CPI inflation, which in turn raises expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes; Rate hike expectations strengthen the US dollar; Because of the inverse DXY correlation between the US dollar and Bitcoin, a stronger dollar puts pressure on Bitcoin. The 35% probability of a FOMC rate hike in July, Bank of America's three rate hike forecasts—September, October, December—and Citadel's clear "rate hike" judgment all stem from the same "oil price-inflation" transmission channel.
A credible reopening deal for the Strait of Hormuz could pull Brent back from $90 to $72 or lower, and simultaneously: lowering short-term CPI expectations; Raise the probability of a rate hike in September from 63% to around 30-40%; Weakening the DXY's support for interest rate spreads against other major currencies; and remove the primary macro headwind that has kept Bitcoin in the $62,000–$66,000 range. Although Bitcoin currently has the strongest on-chain structural allocation in the current cycle—nine-year exchange supply at low levels, a record 79% LTH supply, and whales continuously increasing holdings—as long as this macro headwind exists, its movement will be limited. Coinbase previously leaked that the CLARITY Act could be voted on as early as Monday.
But recent news shows that today's official Senate agenda only includes a vote on the temporary appropriations process, with no crypto bill.
But it wasn't completely over yet. This week is the last window before recess, and from Tuesday to Friday, the agenda may be temporarily scheduled at any time.
Right now, the market isn't betting today, but whether it will suddenly hit the table in the coming days.#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
The financial report is just the fuse; unlocking the 100 billion yuan is the real dynamite.
After the market closed on August 4, SPCX submitted its first quarterly report. Usually, I look at three points: revenue, profit and loss, and guidance. But this time is far more than that—the day after the earnings report, August 6, up to 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, which is worth nearly $100 billion at $108.37.
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What is the market betting on?
FactSet expects Q2 revenue of about $6.88 billion, with a loss of $0.23 per share. Compared to Q1, it jumped significantly to 4.69 billion yuan, all relying on Starlink to continue expanding volume. But revenue exceeding expectations is only a passing line. The real question to be asked during the call was: Can Starlink user and revenue growth be sustained; Is the money earned enough to fill the gaps of Starship, xAI, and data centers? A loss of 4.28 billion yuan in the first quarter—how is free cash flow headed? No one expects it to be profitable now; everyone only cares about whether the pace of burning money has marginally improved.
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Market Language: Not panic, just a cold commotion
In the past 10 trading days, 3 have risen and 7 have fallen. On the day of the decline, about 440 million shares were traded, while on the day of gain, only 237 million shares, with the volume of selling volume being 1.86 times the amount of buying. The stock price slipped from 123.99 to 108.37, a drop of 12.6%. On July 31, it fell 3.41%, with a trading volume of 58.83 million shares—far below the 65-day average of 115.3 million shares.
This isn't a sharp drop on high volume, but a low-volume decline in shadow mode. A sharp drop on high volume means panic selling is emerging, often near a short-term bottom; Shrinking volume and a bearish decline means buyers are retreating all the way; no one wants to buy, and the bottom signal has not yet appeared.
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The shorts have already surrounded the table
As of July 15, short positions reached 165 million shares, a sharp 48% increase quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 25.55% of the free float. Reuters cited Ortex data showing about 360 million shares lent out, accounting for 56% of the outstanding float. Short sellers accumulated a book profit of about $15.5 billion. The stock price has been halved, but the bears not only haven't withdrawn but are increasing their positions—they are not betting on a pullback, but on a second round of decline after the lock-up is lifted.
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Numbers speak for themselves
Currently, there are about 646 million shares in circulation, with 911.5 million unlocked shares, which is 1.41 times the circulating shares and 40% more than the tradable shares in the market. This is 15.5 times the total trading volume on July 31 and 7.9 times the 65-day average.
Sell all ≠ unlocked. But even if only 10% cashed out, that's 91.15 million shares, 55% higher than the total turnover on July 31, equivalent to about $9.88 billion; even just 5% would still be 45 million shares, nearly half of the day's trading volume. In a shrinking market, this incremental growth is enough to flip the table.
There is a price trigger clause—within the first 10 trading days of the earnings report, at least 5 days must close above $175.50, unlocking an additional 455.8 million shares. The current stock price is $108, and this stock has expired. On August 6, the confirmed deal was these 911.5 million shares.
Good news, but not much.
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Does the bull still have a card left? Yes, the cards are in the hands of the bears
25% of the circulating position is shorted. If the earnings report greatly exceeds expectations and triggers short covering, the recovering itself is forced buying, and the circulating position is small, so the short squeeze rebound can be very strong.
Three types of scripts:
1. Better than expected + unlocked, moderate digestion→ sharp rise and short squeeze
2. Decent data but unclear guidance→ surging and then pulling back, continuing trading pressure to unlock restrictions
3. Below expectations + insider share reductions → below issue price, even hitting new lows
In my personal judgment, the second option is the most probable. Starlink's fundamentals should be solid, but the pace of burning money won't change qualitatively within a month. The management's stance is likely still to be "sustained investment for the future." After hearing this, the market's attention quickly shifted back to the 100 billion unlocking event.
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SPCX fell from 225 to 108, halved, but the chip risk is not fully released. Over the past month, the stock price has been held up by limited circulation, with a distorted supply-demand relationship. After August 6, this restriction was truly lifted for the first time.
What determines stock prices is no longer how sexy Mars colonization is, but two very practical things:
Insiders are willing to sell at certain prices, and outside funds are willing to buy at certain positions.
Financial reports determine whether the market is willing to buy, and unlocking determines how much the market must receive. #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
South Korea's KOSPI index surged 14% intraday, triggering the market circuit breaker mechanism and recording the largest intraday gain in history. SK Hynix hit the 30% daily limit, Samsung Electronics surged over 25%, and the two storage giants directly drove the index to rebound. This extreme market is not a sudden fundamental shift, but rather a short covering rally following previous consecutive sharp declines and the concentrated clearing of leveraged selling pressure. Meanwhile, expectations for AI storage demand are warming, driving a recovery in risk asset sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region.
1. The three core underlying logics of this round of surge
1. Panic selling pressure has been completely cleared, and bears are focusing on squeezing short positions
Previously, Korean stocks suffered consecutive sharp declines, with many leveraged accounts facing forced liquidations and panicked chip panic fleeing. When panic selling is mostly digested, a small amount of buying can quickly push the index up, forming a retaliatory V-shaped rebound. South Korean retail investors are active in both the stock and crypto markets, and their risk appetite serves as an important indicator for observing the sentiment of Asian speculative funds.
2. Pessimistic expectations for the AI storage industry chain recover
The Korean stock market is highly tied to the memory chip sector, with Samsung and SK Hynix occupying core global HBM production capacity. Earnings reports from US tech giants confirm the resilience of AI capital expenditure, with funds repricing storage cycles. The recovery in AI hardware prosperity will indirectly affect global technology risk assets.
3. Dual support from industrial capital + regulatory policies
The chairman of SK Group personally stepped in to increase his holdings in SK Hynix, conveying confidence at the industry level; South Korean regulators have simultaneously tightened leveraged ETF rules to curb disorderly crowding and ease market panic over ongoing deleveraging.
2. Two-layer transmission paths: Understanding the impact on Bitcoin
✅ Short-term sentiment is positive
Risk assets in the Asia-Pacific region collectively rebounded, and market risk appetite rose, providing short-term sentiment support for Bitcoin. South Korean retail investors are an important source of incremental capital in the crypto market. With stock market panic easing, funds will not blindly flee all risk assets.
⚠️ Medium- and long-term hidden risks of capital diversion
When the stock market continues to generate profits, speculative funds favoring high volatility will flow back into the stock market from the crypto market, creating a seesaw effect. We must face reality: this round of rebound is essentially a recovery after overselling, not the start of a new long-term bull market; its sustainability needs to be continuously verified.
3. Two common pitfalls traders fall into
1. Do not equate a rebound directly with a trend reversal
The core driving force behind the surge is short covering, not a continuous influx of new growth line funds. Historically, many of these extreme V-shaped rebounds have been pulse-like one-day rallies, blindly chasing highs with extremely poor profit-loss ratios.
2. Do not rely solely on the Korean stock market to decide when opening positions
The core of Bitcoin's medium- to long-term pricing remains anchored to the Fed's interest rate path, Treasury yields, and dollar liquidity. Regional stock market sentiment can only affect short-term fluctuations and cannot reverse major trends.$DRAM $LINK $DOGE $BICO $1000PEPE $KORU $QQQ $MU $WLD $GIGGLE ##Earnings Observer: Four Earnings Releases This Week, Circle Closes the Show
The bell for Circle's IPO hasn't rung yet, but the market has already locked its focus on the stablecoin sector. The earnings call on Thursday, which closes the week, will most likely discuss USDC's reserve yields and compliance progress, but the real undercurrent is in the order book—whenever such a "heavyweight narrative" approaches, capital starts repositioning ahead of the news. Watching the ETH order book this morning, an unusual order appeared: at 1898.5, the best bid was repeatedly eaten and then re-posted, as if a hand was deliberately maintaining some balance. This price level coincides exactly with the last trend reversal confirmation on the 1-hour chart, while the 4-hour chart just confirmed a pullback after a breakdown at 1820.61. Two forces are battling in this narrow range, making me think the market won't be quiet around noon today.
Let's talk about the strangeness of this order. Starting from 11:30 AM, every few minutes there are several hundred buy orders supporting the price below 1898.5, but each time the price touches 1899 it is immediately pushed back down. There is a dense wall of sell orders between 1902 and 1905, like a transparent barrier. This "infinite support below, infinite pressure above" pattern is usually not something retail traders can set up—it looks more like an institution quietly building a position in one direction during the liquidity vacuum before earnings. Coupled with the 4-hour bearish breakdown candle, the breach of 1820.61 did not trigger panic selling; instead, mild buying appeared around 1830, indicating the shorts are not planning a full-scale push, but rather probing how much supply is willing to give up.
Looking at open interest changes: the price is falling, but total open interest is shrinking simultaneously. This is not the pattern of shorts adding positions to dump the market, but rather both sides actively exiting. Although the funding rate is at a high percentile of 0.0001, the absolute value remains low, indicating leverage funds are cautious rather than aggressive. This combination of "price down, open interest down, funding rate stable" reminds me of a typical buildup before a major event last year—everyone is waiting for a trigger point, and no one wants to commit heavily first. Circle's earnings report is that potential trigger, but its impact path is not a direct ETH pump; it transmits indirectly through liquidity expectations in the stablecoin market. If USDC's reserve yields exceed expectations, capital might temporarily withdraw from risk assets into stablecoin yield products, which is short-term bearish for ETH; but if management signals more compliance licenses landing, it would boost market confidence in on-chain liquidity, becoming a medium-term positive.
Back to the chart, the 1-hour 1898.5 confirmation point is interesting. It is the first high breakout after a downtrend; although the move is small, it shows short-term bearish momentum is weakening. However, the 4-hour 1820.61 breakdown is like a sword hanging overhead—if the price rebounds above 1900 but fails to hold, that sword could fall again at any time. My main focus now is whether the sell wall between 1902 and 1905 will be worn down by time—if afternoon volume continues to increase and gradually chips away at this wall, it means the buying is genuine; if it only probes repeatedly and then volume shrinks, it is likely a bull trap.
From a volatility perspective, the 4-hour volatility contraction has lasted over a dozen cycles, while the 1-hour volatility has just returned to normal. This mismatch between large and small timeframe volatility often signals an impending breakout window. I don't like using the mystical term "breakout," but the fact is: when price oscillates in an increasingly narrow box and an earnings event with certainty is approaching, the directional choice usually happens within the next 24 hours. My scenario is: if price breaks above 1905 with volume support, I will test a long position near 1908 with a stop loss at 1895—because that is the morning's volume cluster; breaking below means buying failed completely. The first target is 1925, a previous 4-hour resistance zone; if price stalls near 1925, I will reduce half my position and hold the rest for 1938. Conversely, if price breaks below 1890 with open interest continuing to fall, I will abandon longs and wait for the 1820 to 1830 range—if Circle's earnings trigger liquidity panic, price might crash toward the 1800 round number, but I don't recommend chasing shorts because strong 4-hour support lies below, likely to cause a quick rebound.
Another detail worth noting: today's ETH trade distribution shows a higher proportion of large orders than the past three days, but the intervals between large orders have lengthened. This suggests capital is building positions in batches rather than all at once. This method usually appears in the early stages of institutional repositioning—they don't mind waiting a few more hours, only caring if the average cost is low enough. If before 2 PM the 1898.5 level again shows the morning's pattern of "repeatedly eaten and reposted," I will consider it the same capital defending the price, indicating a short-term bottom nearby. But if this level is decisively broken without even a rebound, it means the defending capital has withdrawn, and 1830 becomes the real battleground.
Circle's earnings also have a hidden focus: will it announce cooperation with more traditional financial institutions? If the call mentions something like "a major bank will use USDC for cross-border settlements," it would directly boost expectations for ETH's on-chain activity, since USDC's underlying settlements largely occur on the Ethereum network. This kind of news transmits faster than ordinary positives because capital rushes into ETH immediately. So my strategy today is not to stubbornly hold a direction but to watch closely the first wave of movement after the news—if price quickly rises more than 1.5% within 15 minutes after the earnings release, accompanied by a funding rate increase, I will chase the move; if only minor fluctuations occur before retreating, it means the market has priced in expectations early, and one should be cautious of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" drop.
#Earnings Observer: Four Earnings Releases This Week, Circle Closes the Show Complete analysis of US stock market opening on August 3rd (tonight) (21:30 Beijing time)
1. Pre-market Basic Forecast (Current Status of Index Futures)
The three major stock index futures opened slightly higher: Nasdaq 100 futures +0.7%, S&P 500 futures +0.4%, Dow futures +0.4%
Conclusion: The market is highly likely to open slightly higher and will not surge in one direction; intraday fluctuations will dominate
2. Three Core Drivers (Determining the Entire Day Trend)
1. Biggest Positive: Middle East Geopolitical Easing (First Driving Force at Opening)
The U.S. cancels military strikes against Iran and launches formal negotiations today; Crude oil plunged more than 6%.
- Positive: Inflationary pressures are marginally easing, and overall risk appetite for airlines, consumption, and the broader market is rising
- Risk: Negotiations break down midway → Oil prices rebound instantly, and US stocks plunge immediately
2. Maximum Suppression: Fed Hawkish Statement (Full-Day Ceiling)
Several Federal Reserve officials have publicly stated that inflation has not reached the target and is inclined to continue tightening / high interest rates remain long-term, with the market's probability of a rate hike in September rising to 57%.
- High-valuation AI and memory chips (SanDisk, Micron) are under the strongest pressure; Value blue chips and consumer defense are relatively resilient to declines
- Pattern: After an intraday rally, it is likely to open higher and plunge, repeating last Friday's rally
3. Fundamental Main Theme: Intensive earnings week
Tonight + Key Earnings Reports for This Week: Berkshire, AMD, Eli Lilly, Disney, Palantir
- Positive branches: Cloud services and AI computing power earnings beat expectations → support the Nasdaq
- Negative branch: Memory chip performance falls short of expectations → continues to drag down SanDisk and other storage stocks
3. Detailed Sector Strength (Based on SanDisk, the Focus You Follow)
Strong sectors
1. Large cloud technologies (Amazon, Microsoft): Solid financial reports and the strongest resilience
2. Aviation and Transportation: Oil prices plunged, with favorable cost logic
3. Consumer blue chips and pharmaceutical defense: Safe-haven funds gather amid bearish interest rate conditions
Weak sectors (focus: memory chips/SanDisk)
1. Storage (SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital): Profit-taking positions fleeing during earlier rally + rate hikes suppressing high valuations, making it very easy to spike and pull back
2. Small-cap pure thematic AI stocks: liquidity tightens and volatility is severe
4. Key points to watch during two key intraday periods
1. 30 minutes before market opening (21:30–22:00)
After a high open, a rapid rally is not sustained and volume shrinks→ a high probability of a pullback, so don't chase longs;
At the open, it opened lower and dipped down, with no negative news fermenting → light positions rebounded.
2. After 2:00 AM
With no official speeches or major data, the market was dominated by individual earnings reports, and index volatility narrowed.
5. Simple Practical Approach (excluding investment advice, only market analysis)
1. Indices: Mainly showing intraday box fluctuations, with low probability of sharp rises or drops in one direction; Geopolitical breakthroughs may break out of ranges
2. SanDisk (Storage Sector): Not chasing higher opens; If rebound pressure hits you, short-term bearish thinking is suitable; After a deep decline and stabilization, small positions can test a rebound
3. Risk control: Fed expectations remain uncertain + significant geopolitical uncertainties, strictly prohibiting heavy positions with high leverage
6. Potential Black Swan Risk
1. US-Iran negotiations suddenly deteriorate, oil prices surge, → US stocks weaken across the board
2. Evening earnings reports blown up in bulk, Fed officials take another hawkish stance→ index plungesThe USD/JPY plunged from above 162 to 156, hitting a nearly 40-year low in three days and becoming its strongest in three months.
The last time the US and Japan jointly bought yen was during the 1998 Asian financial crisis. After 28 years, the two countries have once again joined forces to support the yen.
(1) What happened?
On July 31, the yen fell to a 40-year low, and the dollar briefly rose above 163 against the yen. On that day, Japan's Ministry of Finance coordinated with the U.S. Treasury during the U.S. trading hours to intervene in buying yen. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besentte confirmed this joint operation and stated that it "will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention."
On August 3, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed that this intervention will be implemented based on the September 2025 joint statement by the U.S. and Japanese finance ministers, and that in the future "there will be no hesitation in further coordinated intervention." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent posted on X, "The coordinated foreign exchange intervention between the U.S. and Japan has effectively curbed the disorderly fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate."
When asked about the matter, Trump responded: "Japan has always treated us well, except for the Pearl Harbor incident." ”
(2) How powerful is the joint intervention?
Within two days, the yen surged sharply from around 163 to the 156 range. The US dollar briefly rose to the 155.23 level against the Japanese yen. It surged over 5% in three days.
Some analysts estimate the intervention scale to be around $59 billion. However, there are also reports that the yen's rebound may be masking about $114 billion in joint interventions. In any case, the scale of this intervention far exceeds Japan's previous single operation—a single round of intervention between 2022 and 2026 is expected to reach about $35 billion to $60 billion.
In the past 30 years, joint U.S.-Japan intervention in the forex market has only occurred twice: the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. This is the third time.
(3) Signal Meaning: This is not an ordinary intervention
This is a major turning point in U.S.-Japan relations. The U.S. has clearly expressed support for the yen, breaking the previous tacit understanding of "the U.S. assuming yen depreciation." Bescent expressed strong support for Japan's measures to "correct the severely undervalued yen."
Short positions on the yen are losing certainty. Market analysts believe the authorities will not allow the yen to depreciate endlessly, and shorting the yen is no longer a deal without competitors. Both Trump and Bescent have simultaneously declared they will "continue to intervene," indicating that the policy risks faced by bears are rising sharply.
But the ammunition issue is the real constraint. JPMorgan pointed out that as of June, the U.S. Treasury's Foreign Exchange Stabilization Fund held only about 13 billion euros in assets and $25.5 billion in assets, which is significantly insufficient compared to Japan's single intervention of 35 to 60 billion dollars. If the U.S. relies solely on the basic ammunition of the Foreign Exchange Stabilization Fund, the amount of funds available to the U.S. is indeed limited.
However, JPMorgan also pointed out that if the U.S. uses unconventional means—liquidating SDRs and swapping foreign currency assets—theoretically, it could mobilize up to about $187 billion; If the Fed participates, the scale of intervention could be doubled.
(4) What does this mean for the crypto market?
Yen appreciation usually accompanies Japanese investors returning their domestic assets—selling US Treasuries, overseas stocks, and crypto assets—to exchange for yen.
If the intervention effects persist and the yen continues to strengthen, this portion of repatriated funds may exert short-term selling pressure on the crypto market. But in the long run, if joint US-Japan intervention can stabilize global currency markets and reduce systemic risk, it may actually provide a more stable macro environment for risk assets.
(5) My judgment
The signal of this intervention outweighs the actual ammunition—the U.S. openly supports the yen, signaling that the policy risks of shorting the yen have been completely changed. However, intervention alone cannot reverse the long-term trend of the yen; the true turning point for the yen still depends on the Bank of Japan's rate hike pace and changes in Fed rate cut expectations.
After the joint intervention in 1998, the yen bottomed out. But that foundation was built on the ruins of the Asian financial crisis. What about this time?
$BTC $ETH $USDJPY
#美日确认联合购汇 股价已经先跪为敬——108.37美元，比135的IPO发行价跌了近20%，距离6月高点225.64更是接近腰斩。市场在用脚投票，等的是什么？等的是8月4日盘后的首份季报，以及8月6日那场千亿级解禁大戏。
9.115亿股符合条件的老股即将解禁，按现价折算超过1000亿美元，比现有公众流通盘还大。马斯克本人锁仓到2027年，不会卖，但早期投资者和员工手里的筹码是实打实的抛压。Starlink去年营收涨了50%听着不错，可公司整体去年亏了近50亿美元。财报能不能讲清Starlink的盈利故事，直接决定这1000亿的盘子接不接得住。
对BTC的影响，绕个弯但很实在。 SPCX本身不是币圈标的，但它代表了民间太空经济的估值锚。如果财报不及预期+解禁砸盘，纳斯达克风险偏好必然受压制，BTC这种高Beta资产很难独善其身。反过来，如果财报超预期，解禁被市场消化，科技股情绪修复，BTC反而跟着喝汤。
接下来怎么玩？ 财报前多空博弈，方向不明，最稳的是看戏。若Starlink盈利路径清晰，解禁冲击可消化；若财报平平甚至暴雷，那1000亿的供应量砸下来，别指望马斯克一个人锁#美日确认联合购汇
Japan's Ministry of Finance officially confirmed joint foreign exchange purchases and yen stabilization with the U.S. Treasury, marking the first coordinated exchange rate intervention between the U.S. and Japan since 2011. The USD/JPY surged rapidly from a 40-year low in a short period, directly disrupting the massive global yen carry trades, leaving Bitcoin unable to navigate this liquidity fluctuation.
1. Core underlying logic: yen carry trading is the biggest variable
The underlying logic of global multi-trillion-dollar carry trades: institutions borrow ultra-low interest yen to exchange for US dollars, increasing positions in US stocks, US Treasuries, crypto assets, and other risk assets.
1. Continued depreciation phase of the yen: Arbitrage trading runs smoothly, continuously injecting incremental funds into risk assets;
2. Joint official intervention drives rapid yen strengthening: A large number of leveraged arbitrage traders have suffered unrealized losses, forcing them to sell stocks and cryptocurrencies to repay debts in exchange for yen to repay debts, triggering concentrated liquidation pressure.
The U.S. proactive move this time is not only aimed at supporting Japan, but also to prevent Japan from selling off U.S. Treasuries on a large scale to support the market, preventing further surge in Treasury yields and accelerating global liquidity tightening.
2. Two transmission paths to understand Bitcoin's bullish and bearish scenarios
Short-term Negative Risk (The Primary Warning Now)
1. Concentrated short squeezing triggers chain of position reductions: Previously, massive yen shorts were crushed, leading to passive unwinding of carry positions, causing short-term selling pressure on risk assets and sharply amplifying market volatility;
2. The market will continue to maneuver and intervene continuously. If there is no sustained capital increase in the future, sentiment will repeatedly pull and market volatility will intensify.
Potential for a medium- to long-term turnaround
1. If joint intervention effectively stabilizes the yen and prevents Japan from continuing to sell off U.S. Treasuries, upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields will ease, indirectly improving global risk appetite;
2. Reality must be recognized: intervention can only fix short-term extreme exchange rate trends. The huge US-Japan interest rate gap remains unchanged, and the long-term logic of carry trading cannot be completely reversed. After a rebound, the yen is highly likely to face pressure again.
3. Traders must avoid two major pitfalls
1. Do not mistake short-term rallies for trend reversals
Policy intervention is a sudden external force. Historically, multiple combined exchange rate interventions have generally weakened market rebounds, often pulsing in pulse patterns with poor profit-loss ratios for chasing orders.
2. Do not decide to open positions solely based on forex market news
Exchange rate fluctuations only affect short-term volatility; Bitcoin's medium- to long-term pricing core still anchors the Fed's interest rate path and inflation data. A single event is difficult to reverse the large-scale trend.
Bi Ge's practical view
Currently, macro news is clustered, with high US Treasury yields, geopolitical conflicts, and currency market interventions, causing market volatility to continue intensifying.
Short-term strategy strictly controls positions, avoiding heavy positions and one-sided bets; Operate in batches based on key support and resistance ranges, with embedded stop-loss measures.
Two key signals should be closely tracked: first, whether the yen's rebound can be sustained; Second, whether U.S. Treasury yields will rise again. Once yields rise again, risk asset pressure will reemerge.At the center of the board, White was forced to exchange in an uncharted area—after four consecutive bearish drops, Micron was pushed to reverse, and a 15% long bullish candlestick overturned the entire king's wing. No news, no battle reports, only the undercurrents of external fronts. A true grandmaster knows: the most dangerous moves often don't come from the game book, but from the move on your opponent's fear list.
Four consecutive days of overcast decline were like two border troops slowly retreating, leaving a gap in the rib line of their own fortress. If you only focus on the single move, you might think the game has gone bad. But true experts know that this is to lure the empty chariot into the most vulnerable horizontal line, then, in an unguarded moment, complete the route swap with a passing pass. Then, the smart hedge fund that treated Micron as its first four holdings, carrying the entire king's wing with 4x leverage, suddenly chose an extreme swap: pushing the $16 billion public portfolio like a gambit to Citadel. The overload ballast hanging over his head was instantly removed. The bear had originally besieged an elephant wearing a cangue, but once the shackles fell, the elephant had transformed into the queen charging straight at the royal city.
SanDisk followed suit with a 23% increase, a chain reaction of the same troops—you devour me, I counterattack you, and by the time you rush to deal with my general, my troops have already crossed the bottom line and upgraded. In chess language, this is called 'passing through': on the surface, it's a discarded piece, but in reality, it seizes the initiative of seven lines in the gap.
But this game was far from the endgame. Only part of the account with 4x leverage was unloaded. Has the player completely emptied of their burden? No idea. What I can confirm is that when the heavy pressure is withdrawn, the soldiers crowded on the left will be forced to rearrange. How far the rebound can go is not determined by the slope of the long bull candle, but by the start of the following week. Every advancement in the middle game comes at a cost; the grandmaster has already calculated every move after the twentieth move before discarding the piece. I've seen similar patterns in the digital currency chessboard: once the heavy pressure on an order is removed, the price doesn't rebound but rises.
So don't rush to check the intraday chart. What you need to see is: who is paying the bill for the opponent's general? Is it possible that the $16 billion fund that handed over $16 billion is trading the sacrifice of its rear wing for a comprehensive restructuring of the central battle? The real profiteer doesn't just take it one step at a time, but has already calculated the situation twenty moves ahead before making a move.
If the player refuses to admit defeat, the endgame hasn't even begun. But on the chessboard, there is no coincidence, only the inevitability you have yet to calculate. #micronshortsqueeze$CRO is the platform token of Crypto, which fell in sync today, compared to BNB's steady rise—the difference is clear. This overseas exchange has recently seen its market share shrink, with user numbers and contract trading volumes declining, and platform fee revenue shrinking significantly.
Original burn and buyback plans have been continuously scaled back, weakening the logic of token deflation, and funds are gradually withdrawing from CROs to leading platform coins for safe havens. At the same time, overseas regulatory scrutiny of small and medium-sized exchanges has intensified, raising market concerns about compliance risks.
Technically, CRO has long been in a downward channel, with its highs constantly moving downward. Each rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions, not to increase holdings. It lacks narrative flexibility and stable revenue support, making it a weak target in the platform token sector.
Major rallies are unlikely to occur in the future; it is recommended to avoid them completely and not blindly invest just because prices are cheap.SPCX's first financial report will be released, with hundreds of billions of dollars unlocking imminent
1. Fundamental Core Contradiction
At the initial listing stage, SPCX's circulating chips were extremely scarce, relying on narrative and passive index funds to generate a premium.
After market close on August 4, the first financial report since listing will be released, and on August 6, the first large-scale unlocking will occur, with nearly 911.5 million shares unlocked, corresponding to chips worth hundreds of billions flowing into the market. Early primary investors have very low holding costs and a strong willingness to realize profits.
Unlocking ≠ immediate concentrated selling, but it completely breaks the core speculative logic of "chip scarcity."
2. Direct Impact of the Financial Report
1. The financial report is a valuation verification checkpoint
The market focuses on Starlink revenue, user growth, overall group loss magnitude, and capital expenditure plans for Starship and xAI.
• Data significantly exceeds expectations: short-term boost to bullish confidence, alleviating panic; but difficult to fully offset the supply pressure from the hundreds of billions unlocking, the rebound is a repair rally with sustained selling pressure above.
• Data meets expectations: lacks new positive catalysts, funds trade the unlocking bearish news in advance, market remains weak and volatile.
• Performance below expectations, losses widen: valuation logic suffers a double blow, bears intensify efforts, likely accelerating the decline.
2. Sentiment reacts in advance
Before the financial report release, funds adopt a wait-and-see attitude, volatility continues to rise, bulls and bears intensify battles, prone to wide-ranging back-and-forth spikes, making it difficult to form a stable one-sided trend.
3. Medium- to Long-Term Impact of Hundreds of Billions Unlocking
$SPCX How did your judgment change when you first entered the industry compared to now? What has driven this change?
After a few years in the circle, my way of judging a coin has completely changed: I used to ask "Will it rise?" Now I ask "Where does the money come from?" When I first entered the circle, my judgment system only had three lines:
Group members are shouting that → is going up, a strong candlestick on the candlestick → a main upward wave. If it drops →, the market makers shake out the market and blindly buy in.
The result is a typical beginner's script: FOMO chasing highs, panic cutting losses, repeating "this time is different" a hundred times, and the account teaching me what liquidity means.
Now, before placing the order, my mind was running through a whole different set of questions:
1. Capital Path: Has BTC Moved? Is ETH following or not? Should the money go to blue chips first or directly go to memes? Is the narrative really adding new liquidity, or is it just old money cutting each other?
2. Odds structure: If you make a mistake, how much can you lose? If you're right, how much do you gain? Losing all this, can I sleep?
3. Chips and Tempo: When will the unlock arrive? Is the main force buying or distributing? Should I enter now to take over or secure positions early?
4. How do I know: Did DYOR see it, or was it misled by some influencer's 'internal alpha'?
What triggered this change wasn't a single book, but several experience summaries that were proven wrong:
• Go all-in on hot topic knockoffs, reset to zero in three days, understand that low prices are ≠ cheap, and low market value without traffic is just the starting point of a dark decline;
• A single BTC pullback scared you into liquidation, missing the subsequent 60% rebound, and understanding trading sentiment ≠ the market;
• Once I copy a large V contract, the other party's post was red, I followed in, got hit by a pin, and realized that others' entry prices and stop-loss levels are not the same as yours.
Nowadays, I basically don't guess the 'next hundredfold'—I only do two things:
• Wait until funds actually flow over before moving, without preemptively overdrawing narratives;
• Lock the maximum loss per transaction—surviving is ten times more important than guessing correctly once.
Here's my viewpoint: most people in the crypto world lose money not because of lack of information, but because their judgment remains stuck in the 'emotional reflex' stage—believing logic when it rises, looking for negative news when it falls. If you can change "I want to buy" to "Why does the money come, and if it comes, will it leave?" You've already outperformed 80% of group members.
Before and after you entered the industry, what was the biggest change in how you judged a project? Let's talk in the comments.#SPCX first financial report to be released, $100 billion unlocking imminent
SpaceX will disclose its first financial report after market close on August 4, followed by a massive unlocking on August 6, with up to 911.5 million shares unlocked, valued at over $100 billion, adding more chips than the current circulating supply.
The stock price has halved from its peak, with short positions accounting for 34% of the circulating supply. Market speculation: can the positive earnings report withstand the selling pressure from unlocking?
Key focus: Starlink user growth, capital expenditure scale, Starship and AI business management guidance.
- Earnings exceed expectations: potential to counter selling pressure and trigger recovery
- Earnings mediocre or below expectations: unlocking supply dominates, downward pressure increases
The unlocking will completely dismantle the early logic of "scarce chips driving up stock price," leading to sharply increased volatility going forward.
Crypto market linkage
SPCX is a high Beta tech stock, which will transmit risk appetite to the crypto space:
1. Stellar earnings report: boosts risk sentiment, providing short-term sentiment support for BTC and ETH;
2. Earnings miss + unlocking panic: tech stocks face valuation cuts, crypto likely to follow down passively, AI sector altcoins face greater correction pressure;
3. Data meets expectations: limited disturbance, market focus returns to US Treasury and Federal Reserve themes.
Only sentiment is catalyzed, without changing the large-scale structure of crypto itself.
Personal opinion, for reference only.
$SPCX $BTC $ETH$SOL The number of unique active trading wallets on the Solana network reached 609,000 in July, marking a seven-month high. This impact on SOL is intertwined, reflecting a complex situation of "uneven temperature" between network fundamentals and market prices: 📈 Positive signals: ecosystem resilience emerging · Growth in actual usage demand: Against the backdrop of 10 consecutive months of price decline, the number of active wallets has rebounded against the trend, indicating that actual usage demand still exists and is not entirely driven by speculation. Fundamentals provide support: Network activity grew against the trend during the downturn, providing value backing for SOL's price. The market generally believes that sustained on-chain activity is the key driver for price breakouts. 📉 Potential constraints: price and usage disconnect · Price response may lag or decoupling: In July, SOL's monthly moving average still fell 1.1%. Even with a surge in network activity, the price did not rise sharply in tandem. Fee mechanism limitations: Solana's low fees mean that extremely high transaction volumes may not necessarily lead to significant token burns (deflationary pressure), weakening the direct upward effect of network activity on price. Data interference: In low-fee environments, the number of active addresses may include a large number of bots or "airdrop" accounts, warning against exaggerating the actual user base. 💎 Summary: Active wallets hit a new high in July, proving the true vitality of the Solana ecosystem during price downturns, which is a positive long-term value signal. But to translate this network activity into sustainable price increases, it still needs to be doneHere’s how I see $BTC playing out next.
If the Clarity Act fails to pass and we get a real unwind in the yen carry trade, $BTC could see a hard drop down toward $50,000.
That’s the scenario I’m watching. No regulation clarity means institutions sit on their hands, and a yen carry unwind pulls liquidity out of risk assets fast. When that happens, crypto feels it first.
I’m not calling it guaranteed. But the setup is there. If both those headlines hit at the same time, expect a sharp flush before buyers step back in.
So I’m tracking policy news and macro flows closely. $50k is in play if the risks line up. Stay sharp and don’t get caught offside.
#USStepsInForYen #SpaceXUnlockLooms #30YYieldAt19YHigh $BTC $BEAT
#DailyOrbit I had just laid out the construction drawings for Building 13 on the desk, and the homeowner asked: Can we just lay one set of pile foundations? I said no, structural mechanics wouldn't allow it. Now 1inch tells me: Aqua has done it.
What is Aqua? A continuous underground corridor is being dug beneath 13 EVM plots. What does traditional cross-chain look like? Each building digs its own basement—BSC digs one floor, Polygon digs another, Arbitrum digs another, Optimism digs another. Funds flow in like concrete poured into a standalone cap; to rebalance, construction must break ground, leaving everyone dusty. Aqua directly connects the foundation pit into a network, allowing users to stand at the entrance of any plot, with their money stored in the central warehouse, yet it can simultaneously supply materials to 13 buildings. This is called the shared post-cast strip—the continuous force transmission path that architects dream of, the economic model of one building, and the mechanical model of thirteen buildings.
This completely overturns the logic of "pre-investment." Previously, you had to keep an ammunition for each of the 13 chains, which meant you had to lay isolated foundations 13 times over the same design blueprint. Formwork, scaffolding, and reinforced concrete were all piled up in a scattered manner, with material utilization rates shockingly low—any structural engineer would feel their blood pressure soar. The brilliance of Aqua lies in its "off-chain settlement + on-chain final confirmation" system into a prefabricated assembly system: all geometric precision is processed in the factory, with only one dry hanging and hoisting done on site. Funds are allocated off-stage, ledgers are aligned in the backend, and finally placed on-chain—this is the generational leap in construction logic. If traditional cross-chain bridges use cast-in-place concrete requiring 28 days of formwork, tying, and curing, Aqua is just precast piles and integrated hoisting, with not a single bag of cement on site.
From the depth of the drawings, this marks 1inch's upgrade from "bricklayer" to "chief planner." DEX polymerization is essentially a decorative project, optimizing the joints and matching of exterior wall stone—attractive but not affecting the load-bearing system. Aqua, on the other hand, moves the load-bearing wall—intended to drive the execution layer. It presets user needs as structural calculation books: you say, "I want to do three ecosystems at once and hedge one risk exposure," Aqua doesn't foolishly set up formwork and tie rebar in every building. Instead, it first builds a cantilever steel platform, allowing funds to flow dynamically to complete floor pouring. The first principles of architecture are force flow continuity, and DeFi is liquidity continuity—these two words sound exactly the same to me.
I can't help but recall what I. M. Pei said when designing the Louvre Pyramid: What you see on the ground is only the sharp edge on the water's surface; what truly supports the entire work is the invisible lower frame below. The most expensive part of high-rise buildings has never been the above-ground glass curtain walls, but the underground diaphragm walls buried below three layers of earth. All innovations appear to happen on the facade, but in reality, they happen at the foundation. 1inch added a hidden beam to the entire design drawing. This beam doesn't take up building space or increase floor area ratio, but it re-distributes the building's load-bearing path—and the load-bearing system of the entire DEX track is being rewritten from the inside by this beam.
I spread out the blueprints and stared at the beam for a long time. 13 chains, one base, zero pre-embedded, no capital injection. If this proposal were in an architectural firm, the chief structural engineers would argue for about three months before signing off with their eyes in peace.
#影响周期·Monthly Grade #行业趋势· DEX · Liquidity · Multi-chain #1inch Aqua · 13 EVM chains · Shared liquiditySTONKBROKER's rally is outrunning evidence of repeat demand beyond its holder base. At the observed token price near $0.0182, the fixed 666,666-token leg valued a broker around $12.1k before its ETH fee, almost exactly the displayed NFT floor. The floor is mostly the token quote in NFT form. Robinhood Chain had about $251m in daily DEX turnover and $1.08b bridged, yet STONKBROKER depth remains the constraint. If activations fade without live products pulling repeat payers, recycling token, NFT and wager demand among the same holders leaves late buyers carrying the downside.
#DailyOrbit Berkshire Hathaway's stock price quietly reached an 8-month high, with BRK.B holding steady above the $513 mark, and its total market value remaining above $1.1 trillion. Technology stocks are fluctuating at high levels, and capital is beginning to seek safe havens, increasing the appeal of traditional value assets.
The recent stock price strength is driven by three clear factors:
First, the major holdings have collectively strengthened. The largest holding, Apple, has risen over 13% this year, Coca-Cola has increased nearly 25%, and Bank of America has gained over 12%. These core holdings jointly boost the portfolio's value, providing fundamental support.
Second, with increasing macro uncertainties, capital prefers defensive assets. Companies with stable cash flows and strong competitive moats, such as insurance, railroads, and energy, are favored, leading to ongoing style rotation.
Third, market speculation on buyback expectations. The market widely bets that the Q2 earnings report released in early August will announce large buyback plans, providing strong support for the stock price.
Berkshire's advantage is not rapid gains in a bull market but holding massive cash reserves during market turbulence. The large cash reserves can continuously earn interest income while waiting to seize opportunities during market panic declines. This asset structure, capable of both offense and defense, is very rare in the current U.S. stock environment.
Outlook:
Short-term focus is on the Q2 earnings report; if buyback intensity exceeds market expectations, the likelihood of the stock price hitting a new all-time high significantly increases.
From a mid-term perspective, as long as capital continues to shift from overvalued tech stocks to high-dividend, low-valuation sectors, Berkshire remains a key institutional allocation target.
If the broader market undergoes a comprehensive correction in the future, it will instead provide a good opportunity for long-term investors to position themselves. One of the most discussed Solana news stories on X these past two days is that the mainnet block calculation limit has increased from 60 million CU to 100 million CU. First, separate "upgrade live" from "network instantly doubled": Solana Foundation recorded mainnet activation on July 29, epoch 1009, an increase of about 66%; But this only changes the total computation that a single block can accommodate.
A more noteworthy detail is that the maximum for a single writable account remains at 12 million CU, and the incremental data limit remains at 100MB. Therefore, this is not about opening a dedicated high-speed channel for a popular program, but rather giving more space for parallel tasks that do not compete for accounts. The official report also revealed that about 11.2% of blocks reached 56 million CU or above in the past year, with demand mainly clustered during market fluctuations.
My judgment: this upgrade is more like a "buffer layer during congestion," with value in reducing the amount of block space crowded by different apps during peak periods, rather than automatically causing fixed changes in price, fees, or transactions per second. To verify whether it has been cashed out, we need to continue looking at the mainnet's peak block utilization, confirmation experience, and how RPC, indexers, and trading platforms follow up on large blocks. For ordinary users, first treat capacity upgrades as infrastructure signals, and don't translate the "66%" on X directly as expected returns.#30-year US Treasury Bonds, Top or New Starting Point?
Brothers, the 30-year US Treasury yield has touched a new high since 2019, and the whole internet is debating: is this the peak, or the start of a new upward trend?
First, let's talk about the underlying logic. This rise in long-term bonds is not just a bet on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
Three major hard pressures are hitting the market simultaneously:
First, inflation won't go away, geopolitical tensions push oil prices up, and the market believes high interest rates will last a long time;
Second, the US fiscal deficit is growing larger, a massive amount of long-term bonds are continuously issued, but buyers can't keep up, so interest rates must be raised to attract funds;
Third, the term premium keeps rising, and investors fear long-term debt risks, so they hesitate to take on long-term bonds casually.
Two scenarios analyzed
Scenario 1: This is a temporary peak
Trigger conditions: CPI and core inflation significantly decline; Middle East situation eases; Federal Reserve signals clear rate cuts.
Once realized, US Treasury yields will turn downward, funds will flow back to risk assets, and $BTC, stock markets, and gold will get a breather.
Scenario 2: The new high is just the starting point
If oil prices stay high and inflation repeatedly rebounds, and the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance.
Long-term bond yields will continue rising, and risk-free returns will keep increasing.
Direct consequence: funds flock to government bonds for safety, all non-interest-bearing risk assets remain under pressure, and it will be difficult for Bitcoin and $ETH to sustain major rallies; volatility and shakeouts will become the norm.
For our trading, remember the key points
US Treasuries are the anchor for global asset pricing.
During the high-yield volatile phase, do not blindly go all-in to bottom fish.
Don't expect massive liquidity injections; the macro environment is tight, and chasing highs has very low cost-effectiveness.
Until inflation and Federal Reserve policies show clear turning points, we cannot conclude that US Treasuries have peaked.
Operate conservatively, wait for macro signals to materialize, then follow the trend to position. 美日联手干预、美元兑日元大幅跳水 对加密市场核心影响
核心底层逻辑
大量海外资金使用日元低息套息交易：借低成本日元兑换美元，进场BTC、以太坊等加密资产博取收益。
本次日元快速升值、美元走弱，会迫使这批资金平仓离场、偿还日元负债，被动抛售加密币种，短期压制行情。
一、短期盘面直接影响（当下行情）
1. 资金被动减仓，行情承压偏弱
美日明确表态会持续干预汇市，USD/JPY快速跌破156关口，日元走强直接触发套息交易大规模平仓。近期已经出现BTC、主流山寨币同步小幅回落，杠杆合约容易集中爆仓，加剧下跌波动。
2. 美元指数同步走弱的分化效果
常规美元大跌利好加密资产，但本次驱动是主动干预推升日元，套息平仓的利空力度更强，短期会抵消美元走弱带来的利多。美股偏稳的环境下，加密反而更容易走独立弱势行情。
二、中期两种走向
情况1：干预持续，日元继续走强
美日持续抛售美元、买入日元，套息资金不断撤离，整个币圈大概率维持震荡偏弱，高位重仓币种回调风险提升。日本是加密市场资金核心来源之一，资金持续流出会压制整体估值。
情况2：干预效果消退，美日汇率重回贬值趋势
日元再度走弱，套息资金回流，利空快速消化，市场会回归美联储货币政策、美股流动性主线。
三、关键风险提示
1. 国内虚拟货币交易不受法律保护，存在极大资金亏损、诈骗风险，任何短线多空策略都无法保证盈利，高杠杆合约爆仓概率大幅提升；
2. 本次属于宏观流动性收紧类利空，并非币种基本面利好，不宜逆势重仓抄底；
3. 后续重点关注：美日是否加码汇市干预、美债收益率同步走高会进一步收紧全球风险资产流动性。$BTC $ETH #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
I believe the 30-year Treasury yield hitting 5.27% is not a top at all, but rather a "new starting point" for crypto asset valuation restructuring. JPMorgan Chase's target of 5.4% is not just a scare, but rather putting the truth behind the "normalization of high interest rates" into the open. Don't be fooled by the illusion of a 7% drop in oil prices in a single day; the U.S.-Iran easing is only a short-term mood recovery and cannot change the underlying logic behind rising U.S. Treasury yields. For the crypto world, 5.3% is not a support level, but rather the "sword of Damocles" hanging overhead. If you don't adjust your holdings now, once it truly holds above 5.4%, you may not even have time to react.
Many people think that with falling oil prices and easing between the US and Iran, inflationary pressures will ease, and US Treasury yields should have peaked. But what truly determines the trajectory of 30-year Treasury bonds has never been oil prices alone, but three deeper variables:
1. The fiscal deficit is a "bottomless pit," not a "temporary problem." U.S. federal net interest expenses for fiscal year 2026 are estimated at $1 trillion, already surpassing defense spending to become the second largest expenditure. More importantly, interest expenses contributed 52.6% of the $1.9 trillion deficit, making it the largest driver of the deficit. What does this mean? This means the U.S. Treasury must continue issuing massive amounts of bonds, while global buyers (the Federal Reserve, central banks of China and Japan, commercial banks) are all contracting. With supply-demand imbalances, yields can only climb. A 7% drop in oil prices can ease inflation, but it cannot ease the fiscal deficit—this is the true lifeline of 30-year U.S. Treasuries.
2. AI capital spending is about "grabbing money," not "telling stories." By 2026, the AI capital expenditure of the four major U.S. tech giants is expected to be $725-775 billion, nearly equal to the total operating cash flow for the entire year. Their demand for bond issuance and the U.S. Treasury's massive Treasury issuance are directly competing for global liquidity. In the past, when U.S. Treasury yields rose, the credit spread for tech stocks would narrow, but now the sovereign credit premium and tech corporate credit premium are rising simultaneously—something never seen in history. Even if oil prices fall, tech giants' demand for bond issuance won't fall, which is the deeper reason why US Treasury yields are 'easy to rise but hard to fall.'
3. The Fed's "hawkish ambiguity" is overdrawing credit. Fed Chair Wash refused to provide a concrete path to curb inflation, forcing the market to pay a higher risk premium for "policy uncertainty." The 7% drop in oil prices is only a short-term recovery in sentiment, but concerns about the Fed's "anti-inflation credibility" have not disappeared. As long as Walsh does not make a clear statement, the term premium on 30-year U.S. Treasuries will continue to rise. The 5.3% is not a top but rather a pricing result of "policy ambiguity."
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5.3%, and its impact on crypto assets is not "short-term volatility," but rather a "fundamental shift in valuation logic." In the past, we saw crypto assets as "risk assets," and when US Treasury yields rose, capital would flow out; But now, U.S. Treasury yields are rising because of "fiscal imbalance + AI cash grabbing + policy ambiguity," meaning global liquidity is being systematically drained, and the "risk premium" of crypto assets will be repriced.
Specifically, there are two direct impacts:
1. The "anchor" of stablecoins is loosening. The underlying assets of stablecoins like USDT and USDC are U.S. Treasuries. The rise in 30-year Treasury yields means the "risk-free return" of stablecoins is increasing, but the profit margins of issuers (such as Tether and Circle) are being squeezed. If Treasury yields continue to rise, the "anchoring ability" of stablecoins will be tested, and the liquidity foundation of the crypto market will be shaken.
2. The DeFi "yield curve" is inverted. In the past, DeFi yields were higher than US Treasuries, mainly due to the "risk premium"; Now, the 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.3%. If DeFi yields remain below 5%, funds will flow into Treasuries. This means the "risk premium" of DeFi is disappearing, and the logic of "excess returns" for crypto assets is being broken.
After the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5.3%, I didn't "cut losses" on crypto assets, but made two adjustments:
1. Replaced "high-volatility altcoins" with "BTC+stablecoins." The "risk premium" of highly volatile altcoins has been eaten up by US Treasury yields, while BTC, as "digital gold," may instead become a "safe-haven asset" in an environment of "fiscal imbalance + tightened liquidity"; Stablecoins allow me to keep my "bullets" when liquidity tightens, waiting until U.S. Treasury yields truly peak before adding more.
2. Replaced "DeFi high-yield products" with "BTC staking + US Treasury funds." DeFi yields have already been "anchored" by U.S. Treasury yields; continuing to hold high-yield DeFi products is equivalent to taking on "extra risk" compared to "risk-free returns"; The combination of BTC staking + US Treasury funds allows one to enjoy BTC's "safe-haven properties" while also obtaining the "risk-free returns" of US Treasuries, which is the optimal solution under the "new starting point."
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached 5.3%. Do you think this is the "top" or a "new starting point"? If JPMorgan's target of 5.4% is realized, will you adjust your crypto holdings? Should you continue holding high-volatility altcoins, or switch to BTC + stablecoins? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section and explore the crypto asset allocation logic under the "New Starting Point" approach. $BTC
It's that time...
Watch how price develops into Monday. If Monday forms a pivot high, it suggests Wednesday is likely to form a pivot low. Conversely, if Monday forms a pivot low, it suggests Wednesday is likely to form a pivot high.
Over the past two weeks, the Wednesday pivot has been front-run on Tuesday and failed to play out. This week will be the real test.
This intra-week correlation has now played out 11/14 times.$BTC #USIranBackToTalks Bitcoin has been trading sideways around $63,000 this week, down 2% for the week, and is stuck in the narrow range between 62,000 and 63,500. Looking back, it's even more painful—it has dropped 44% over the past 12 months, and last August even reached a high of $120094, with the current price already more than halved.
Weighing down prices, rising U.S. Treasury yields and net ETF outflows have tightened institutional buying. What's more noteworthy is that Strategy, the company Saylor, hasn't increased holdings for five consecutive weeks. Their average position building cost is around $75,500, and the current price has clearly fallen below this line, indicating that even the most determined institutional buyers are holding their ground. On-chain data shows that long-term holders' holdings haven't loosened much, more like bottoming out rather than cutting losses, but this doesn't necessarily signal a reversal.
My judgment is that the 62,000 support is more critical than the resistance at 63,500. A break below this level is highly likely to open up a downward trend. Until a catalyst appears, sideways consolidation remains the path with least resistance.
$BTC Brothers, there are four earnings reports to watch this week.
After market close on August 3: Palantir
After market close on August 4: AMD + SpaceX
Before market open on August 5: Circle
Tech stocks and crypto stocks are clashing.
And the timing couldn’t be worse.
Last round, the tech giants all reported — Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple — all exceeded revenue expectations. So what happened?
📈 Microsoft closed up 15.5%, setting a record for the largest single-day market cap gain in US stocks
📈 Amazon surged over 9% after hours
📉 Meta dropped over 9%
📉 Apple fell more than 4% after hours
The difference isn’t in the current quarter’s numbers, but in the guidance for the next quarter.
On the crypto side, three reports have already been released:
❌ Coinbase: Q2 revenue $1.22 billion, down about 19% year-over-year, down 14% quarter-over-quarter, below the expected $1.29 billion. Net loss of $359 million, losing money for three consecutive quarters. Fell 5.3% after hours.
❌ Robinhood: Record total revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year-over-year, sounds good, right? But crypto revenue plummeted 38% to $100 million. Even more painful — predicted market revenue of $156 million surpassed both crypto and stock trading for the first time. Retail investors aren’t even betting on crypto anymore.
✅ Tether: Net operating profit of $1.5 billion, up nearly 50% from Q1. USDT circulation reached 184.6 billion, market share surged above 60%. Gold holdings at 146 tons, more than many national central banks.
Three have reported: two underperformed, one is winning.
❓ Still left is Circle — the last card for stablecoins.
Wall Street expects Circle’s Q2 revenue to be $717 million, up 3.3% quarter-over-quarter; EPS expected at $0.164. USDC circulation at the end of Q1 was $77 billion, up 28% year-over-year.
But the problem is — Circle’s Q1 EPS missed market expectations. Can it turn things around this time?
To be honest:
Tech giants have proven — beating expectations doesn’t matter, next quarter’s guidance is what kills.
Crypto side has proven — trading revenue is collapsing, only stablecoins are winning.
Circle is the last card this week. Its performance will directly determine the tone of the entire crypto market next week. The quick earnings are way too low
If you don't start a new project,
$OKB it can't be locked anymore
Looking at it, each flash profit is about 700 to 1 billion TVL
On-chain TVL is only 100 million, while stablecoins have 2 billion
This is a serious inverted sob
XL is missing one hit project activation to boost sales volume
For example, predictive applications,
The World Cup spending money to attract new users should be effective
Hurry up and start the next phase of the project to retain the newcomers
Guess what Old Xu will do next
The next step is to convert the funds and stability ratio from Flash Earn into TVL on XL
The current problem is that the returns are too low,
Step one
First, subsidize yourself to boost stablecoin yields to 3-5%+ to attract attention
Completing tasks grants extra rewards
Convert people who come to earn rewards into active on-chain users
You can reward coins from the primary market or coins that will be listed in the secondary market
1. Holding coins + activity points to earn points
2. Define user LV using points
3. LV+okb holding positions to participate in new subscriptions
Combine all on-chain income + self-subsidy
Increase staking yields and airdrop to users
Step two: stratify users
An inactive account is now only useful for contributing TVL
Now it's time to make adjustments
For example, if you just stake and lay flat to earn returns, you can get 5%.
Now it has become
Simple staking, 3%
Pure Activity, 3%
Staking + active trading, 5%
Staking + Active + LV tiers: 6/7/8/9/10%
Plus, regular airdrops to LV users
Currently, there are active trading events where you can directly reward coins or U
But fake orders are so severe that it feels like they can't afford to play anymore
Further optimization of the strategy is needed
You can just exchange the reward U for airdrop and invest it in active traders
Once or twice, when people realize the returns are high, naturally they become active
A single event lasts 10 days; the first 9 days reach 100 million transactions, and on the last day you brush 2 billion in volume
Your event has a huge negative impact
Earnings are the best way to attract new users, no objections
The market will naturally promote you 近日多位策略师分析，美国财政部或将借助欧元开展日元托市干预，规避直接抛售美元引发本币走弱，维护强势美元基调。
据两名消息人士透露，上周五纽约联邦储备银行向至少两家美国大型银行征询欧元兑日元报价。
东方汇理新加坡高级策略师大卫·福雷斯特解读：美国不愿公开抛售美元。
美方坚持强势美元政策，一旦主动抛售美元干预汇市，容易被认定刻意压低本币换取竞争优势，与G20外汇共识相悖，舆论层面极为被动，因此优先选用欧元操作。
新西兰银行货币策略师Jason Wang补充，这套操作只是表面回避美元抛售，长期来看资金后续仍需再平衡、重新调回欧元头寸，意味着未来依旧存在卖出美元的可能性，只是干预手段变得更加隐蔽。
#美日确认联合购汇 Looking back at the past three major geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin's script is almost identical:
First: February 2022, Russia-Ukraine war
On the day of the Russian invasion, BTC plunged from $39,843 to $34,322, a 24-hour drop of nearly 10%.
And then?
Within a week, the price rebounded to $45,400. The rebound was even stronger than gold. From 34,322 to 45,400—a 32% increase in the week.
Second time: October 2023, Israel-Palestine conflict
On the day Hamas attacked Israel, BTC briefly declined, then stabilized. In just two weeks, BTC surged from around $28,000 to $35,000.
The market not only recovered its losses but also reached new highs.
Third: In April 2024, Iran directly struck Israel for the first time
In the early hours of April 14, Iran launched large-scale drone and missile attacks against Israel. Bitcoin instantly plunged from around $70,000 to below $61,000, a drop of as much as 11%.
And then?
By Sunday morning, BTC had rebounded to $64,000. In the following months, BTC hit an all-time high.
See the pattern?
Geopolitical shocks → panic selling on the first day (BTC fell 5-15%)→ followed by institutions viewing BTC as a "non-sovereign safe-haven asset" for 1-4 weeks→ with capital inflows recovering losses→ even reaching new highs.
This is not mysticism. These are the three major conflicts over the past three years, with unmatched data.
Every panic low is a buying window with a very high win rate.
Every time the market panics most, it's when smart money quietly enters.
But—
This time, there is a huge difference.
Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with a 9:3 split in voting, and three officials supporting rate hikes. The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury note surged to its highest level since 2007, surpassing 5.26%. The US dollar continues to strengthen.
High interest rates + a strong US dollar are the biggest macro headwinds this time.
During the first three conflicts, the Fed was either in a rate-cutting cycle or at low rates. This time, the surge in oil prices is driving up inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve not only won't cut rates, but may even raise rates again.
This means this repair may be slower than the previous three times.
The low point may be even lower. The consolidation may be longer. The rebound may come later.$BTC 第三次刺穿 63000，加密法案的棺材板要钉上了，最后一跌要来了吗？
先讲一个很多人还没意识到的事实。
你可能是听着"8 月 7 日参议院暑休是 CLARITY Act 最后窗口"这条新闻过来的。但 Galaxy Digital 的研究主管上周已经把话说透了：实际截止日是 7 月 30 日，不是 8 月 7 日。
因为参议院的程序流程需要数天时间。7 月 30 日之前没启动投票，后面就来不及了。
而今天已经是 8 月 3 日。CLARITY Act 没有投票，没有终结辩论动议，甚至没有排上日程表。能修的路全没修，通往 60 票的桥梁在逻辑上已经断了。
一份签不了的同意书
再看一遍票数账本。
参议院 60 票门槛。共和党有 53 席，但 Hawley 和 Paul 已经表态反对，McConnell 6 月住院后就没再投过票。可靠票约 50 票。还需要 7-8 名民主党人倒戈。
5 月银行委员会投票时只有 2 名民主党人投了赞成票。截至目前公开支持的民主党人不超过 3 人。
7 位民主党谈判代表上周发了一份联合声明，措辞直截了当——"文本存在不足"。他们反对的核心包括：
伦理条款只由司法部执法，而特朗普的私人律师刚被提名去做司法部长，"相当于让被告的律师当法官"。
法案设 2029 年日落条款，到期后一切归零。
参议员 Warren 的态度更简单："应被否决。"
Polymarket 通过概率从 82% 跌到 30%。Galaxy Digital 从 50% 下调到 30%。
市场已经定调了：大概率过不了。
再看 BTC 在做什么
把这个逻辑压到盘面上，BTC 的走势透着一股"已知坏消息尚未被完全消化"的拧巴感。
今天凌晨，BTC 一度冲上 63779。然后从 9 点开始一路阴跌，两个小时内砸到 62742——本周第三次刺破 63000。12 点之后弱反弹收到 62897，连 63000 都没能摸回去。
上一次是在周末（8 月 2 日凌晨），BTC 砸到 62227。再上一次是在上周五，美日联合干预和美伊局势叠加，砸到 62400 附近。
三次刺穿 63000，三次都拉回来后劲不足。这不是"底部有支撑"，这是"多头的力量在衰竭"。 每次反弹的幅度在缩小：62227 反弹到 63500+（约 1300 点），62742 反弹到 62897（不到 200 点）。这盘棋，空头占了上风。
"最后一跌"的逻辑是成立的
如果 CLARITY Act 真的黄了——在 8 月 7 日参议院暑休之前正式宣告失败——那它对加密市场意味着什么？
简而言之：整个行业的监管路线图，要至少再延后到 2027 年。
没有清晰框架，机构不敢大规模进场。没有合规标准，DeFi 开发者继续走钢丝。SEC 和 CFTC 的权力之争继续拉锯，执法靠个案、规则靠猜测。
这条消息一旦落地，市场情绪从"等利好"切换到"确认利空"的那个瞬间，就是最容易出恐慌抛售的时刻。
而 BTC 的处境已经非常脆弱：地缘冲突推高油价、日本干预推升美债收益率、非农和 CPI 悬在头顶、60,000 关口是最后一道心理防线。所有能砸盘的理由都排着队，只等一个扳机。
CLARITY Act 宣告失败，就是那个扳机。
什么叫"最后一跌"？两个特征
第一，它出现在利空集中释放之后、恐慌盘出清之时。这次 CLARITY Act 的失败市场已经提前预期了（概率 30% 说明大多数人已经接受"过不了"这个结果），所以正式宣告的时候不一定会引起"意外恐慌"——但会放大已有的弱势。
第二，它需要多头彻底丧失反抗能力。BTC 目前还在 62700-63500 区间挣扎，多头没有完全放弃。但如果法案正式黄了、价格跌破 62200（上周最低点），那下面就是 61500、甚至 60000。
"最后一跌"是否已经蕴含在现在 30% 的概率里，还是要等概率真正归零的那天？ 答案很可能是：归零的那天一定会来，而且大概率在本周内。
盯紧两个位置
62700-62800：今天的最低区域。再破一次，空头动能确认加速。
62200：上周最低点。跌破它，意味着所有"托底"的力量都放弃抵抗了，下方空间打开。
而那个会让空头加速的"法案正式死亡"的消息，大概率就在 8 月 7 日之前落地。在此之前，别赌反弹，别抄底。等法案的棺材板钉上再说。
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 $ETH Morgan Stanley launched the ETH and SOL spot ETF on July 28, featuring a historic low fee rate of 0.14% and a unique full staking yield retention mechanism as its core selling points. This is both a milestone positive for ETH and SOL, but also accompanied by significant negative factors. 📈 Positives: Lowering barriers, injecting incremental growth, reshaping the landscape 1. Endorsed by Wall Street giants, expanding traditional capital channels. Morgan Stanley has nearly 16,000 financial advisors and $2.6 trillion in client assets. Its entry means ETH and SOL have officially entered the mainstream wealth management portfolio, bringing sustained and stable capital inflows. 2. The fee "price war" has fully begun, with costs significantly reduced by 0.14%. Management fees are lower than Grayscale's Ethereum Mini Trust's 0.15% and Franklin Templeton's Solana ETF 0.19%. Low-cost competition will force other issuers to follow suit and lower fees, significantly reducing the actual cost for long-term holders. 3. "Full retention of staking yields" creates substantial enhanced returns. Both ETFs plan to participate in staking, with Solana Trust targeting up to 100% of its SOL holdings. Morgan Stanley does not charge any staking profit share; after deducting a 5% fee from service providers, 95% of the staking rewards are returned to the fund. Currently, Ethereum staking yields are about 3.2%, while Solana yields about 6.8%. This means that while investors can enjoy price fluctuations, they can also earn a considerable amount of "interest income," especially the enhancement effect of Solana productsThree reports submitted, one pending review — the last lottery ticket of the crypto earnings season
Brothers, there are four earnings releases this week.
After market close on August 3: Palantir
After market close on August 4: AMD & SpaceX
Before market open on August 5: Circle
Three crypto reports have been submitted: Coinbase, Robinhood, Tether. Three reports, three completely different stories.
Some failed the test, some transformed, some quietly made a fortune.
The last one — Circle — will release results Thursday morning.
Don’t rush to bet yet. After reviewing these three reports, you’ll know how to bet on the last one.
First report: Coinbase — failed the test, but the failure was "expected"
Revenue $1.22 billion, down 18.5% year-over-year, $80 million below the market expectation of $1.3 billion. GAAP loss per share $1.36, far worse than the expected $0.42 loss. Net loss $359 million.
This is the third consecutive quarter of revenue missing expectations.
Shares fell about 5% after hours. Interestingly, the drop widened to 13.9% after the official open. Why? Because the market was waiting for one thing: Q3 guidance.
Coinbase didn’t say Q3 would rebound. Didn’t say crypto trading volume would recover. Didn’t say subscription revenue would hold steady.
When a company delivers a poor report and offers no "next time will be better" promise — the market can only vote with its feet.
But Coinbase isn’t without highlights. Cash and cash equivalents $8.6 billion, including $2.96 billion in stablecoins, $3.09 billion in money market funds and short-term U.S. Treasuries. It can withstand the storm. The problem is: withstanding doesn’t mean it can rally.
Second report: Robinhood — successful transformation, but crypto cooled off
Total revenue $1.31 billion, up 32% year-over-year, a record high. Net profit $573 million, up 48% year-over-year, earnings per share $0.62, well above the expected $0.41.
Pretty good? Yes.
But breaking it down:
Prediction market revenue $156 million — surpassing crypto and stock trading revenue for the first time. Crypto revenue plunged 38% year-over-year, down to $100 million. Crypto nominal trading volume $40 billion, with $18 billion on the Robinhood app, down 35% year-over-year.
Robinhood used prediction markets and stock trading to fill the crypto gap.
What does this mean? It means retail investors are still trading, but not in crypto. They moved to prediction markets and stock options.
Good for Robinhood. Dangerous signal for crypto — retail enthusiasm is withdrawing from the crypto space.
Third report: Tether — the only one smiling in the bear market
Net operating profit $1.5 billion, nearly 50% higher than Q1. USDT circulation $184.6 billion, market share over 60%. Excess reserves $4.11 billion. User base exceeded 650 million.
Earning $1.5 billion in one quarter is more than many public companies make in a year.
What’s the essence of Tether’s business? Earning interest. With high U.S. Treasury yields, Tether uses USDT reserves to buy Treasuries; the interest spread is profit. As long as the Fed doesn’t cut rates, Tether can keep printing and profiting.
The irony: the worse the crypto market, the more Tether earns. Because in a bear market, people prefer holding stablecoins.
After reviewing the three reports, one conclusion is clear:
Coinbase is enduring, Robinhood is transforming, Tether is profiting.
The last one — Circle — reports before market open on August 5.
What does the market focus on? USDC circulation, reserve income, institutional partnership progress, stablecoin competition landscape.
Most optimistic scenario: USDC circulation grows quarter-over-quarter, interest income beats expectations → boosts DeFi liquidity expectations.
Most pessimistic scenario: USDC continues to shrink, compliance costs rise → triggers market concerns about intensified competition in the stablecoin sector.
At the end of Q1, USDC circulation was about $77 billion, up 28% year-over-year. Can Q2 maintain this momentum? Tether’s $184.6 billion USDT already tells you — in the stablecoin market, the winner takes all.
Earnings schedule (Beijing Time):
Monday (August 3) after market close → Palantir (PLTR). Market expects revenue about $1.8 billion, up 80% year-over-year, EPS about $0.28-0.35. AI data sector, P/S ratio 61x — high valuation allows no disappointments.
Tuesday (August 4) after market close → AMD & SpaceX. AMD expected revenue about $11.3 billion, up about 48% year-over-year, EPS about $1.61. AI chip sector, up over 120% this year. SpaceX’s first earnings report since going public, expected revenue about $6.93 billion, EBIT loss about $1.55 billion. But the real bombshell is the 911.5 million shares unlocking on August 6 — more than the current float. Morgan Stanley calls this the "most dangerous moment."
Wednesday (August 5) before market open → Circle (CRCL). The first full quarterly earnings report of the leading stablecoin company.
Trading advice (plain talk):
Small positions can be played one hour before each earnings release. But avoid heavy bets on a single event.
After release, focus on guidance, not numbers. Last round with Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple — all beat revenue expectations, but stock prices moved in four directions. The difference? Next quarter’s guidance.
Coinbase fell because it gave no guidance.
Robinhood rose because prediction markets offered a new story.
Tether profited because its business model doesn’t need storytelling.
Circle’s earnings numbers aren’t important. What matters is: is USDC circulation growing or shrinking?
Earnings season isn’t gambling season, it’s a season for harvesting expectation gaps.
You don’t need to guess the data, you need to guess the market’s reaction to the data.
Circle reports Thursday morning.
$BTC $CRCL $AMD #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 Trump claims to initiate US-Iran negotiations, but senior market prediction funds bet: formal diplomatic talks are unlikely to materialize before mid-August.
In the prediction platform topic "US-Iran diplomatic meeting before August 15," four mature geopolitical traders have collectively invested $18,500 betting "no meeting," with an average entry cost probability of 75.6%; current market pricing shows only a 29% chance of talks materializing.
▸ paddaa invested $4,600, specializing in the political sector, with cumulative sector profits of $152,000 and a historical settlement trade win rate of 55%;
▸ 0x9c987f84 invested $5,400, skilled in geopolitical trades, sector profits of $56,500, and a trade win rate as high as 75%;
▸ 0x4f90a3ea invested $2,800, with a political sector trade win rate of 84%;
▸ Jep-G invested $5,700, far exceeding their own historical median investment at the same price level.
News recap: On August 2, Trump announced the cancellation of a new round of military strikes, stating that diplomatic space was being left open, and externally announced that US-Iran negotiations would start Monday afternoon.
However, the US side did not disclose the meeting location, participants, or negotiation timeline. US negotiation demands include Iran's nuclear issue, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and regional ceasefire, among others.
So far, Iran's officials have not confirmed the meeting arrangements. Internal opinions in Iran are divided: pragmatists hope to use external military pressure to advance negotiations, while hardliners oppose compromising with the US.
On the 3rd, the Iranian president stated a desire to implement the existing memorandum but emphasized the need for the US to fulfill its commitments; the Iranian foreign minister has recently communicated with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey regarding regional situations.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry explained that consultations with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz are bilateral affairs and do not involve third parties. At this stage, the US-Iran Monday talks still lack a definite time, place, and participant list.
#美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
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