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In recent days, many altcoins have started moving, and most people believe this is a signal for the market to start up.
How to put it, before the technical gap is filled, any start from bulls before liquidation can be seen as induced bulls. Moreover, the ones pulling up are unused knockoffs, like meme leaders like PEPE and others, which haven't even started. A 20%~30% drop is expected. This is the most basic judgment of the market.
Consider Bitcoin reaching 50,000 yuan. These altcoins seem to be at low levels but actually have even lower levels. Many people ask if altcoins still have a chance. I think there will be a rally before the New Year. According to my logic, from October to December this year, the rally mainly comes from Bitcoin kicking off and the old coins flying along. Why do I think prices will rise after October?
First, several conditions must be met
First, technically fill the 49,000 gap from August to September. If you fill this period, the subsequent technical demand will see a surge in demand.
Second: Fundamentals are all about whether there will be a rate hike in September (I expect to raise rates by 25 basis points). You can check out Wednesday's CPI data (it should be negative). The last shocking nonfarm payroll data was fake and still just acting. By then, all the negative factors in September will be gone, and the technical gap at 49,000 will be filled. After that, there will be a rebound and rally. Here, I want to emphasize one very important point!$BTC Bearish Divergence (Hidden)
Spot Volume running flat as Open Interest drops.
Not a good sign, especially on a U.S. Market open Monday...8 月 10 日，截至 8 月 7 日标普 500 指数席勒市盈率（Shiller PE，CAPE）升至 42.39 倍，远高于 17.40 倍的长期均值，仅低于互联网泡沫时期 44.19 倍的历史峰值，同时超过 1929 年大崩盘前 32.56 倍的估值水平，当前已进入历史第二次 CAPE 超过 40 倍的极端区间。
分析指出，CAPE 指标主要用于衡量长期投资回报预期，而非预测市场短期顶部。目前 CAPE 超过 40 倍的历史案例几乎全部集中于 1999 年至 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期，因此不能简单以单次泡沫周期推断未来十年美股必然进入「失去的十年」。
不过，高估值意味着美股长期估值容错空间正在下降。未来市场回报将更多依赖企业盈利持续超预期，而非依靠估值进一步扩张。
市场认为，人工智能（AI）浪潮带来的生产效率提升、利润率改善和企业盈利增长，可能帮助高估值维持更长时间。但如果 AI 盈利兑现不及预期，或实际利率继续上升，高估值环境可能放大市场调整压力。
CAPE 释放的核心信号是，美股未来十年预期收益率可能面临下降压力，但该指标并不能直接意味着美股即将见顶，也无法推断未来十年实际收益必然为负。$SNDK #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ I $HOME long at 0.009448. This is not an emotional long because the price is rising sharply, but an order based on a fairly clear technical structure.
Reasons why I choose LONG HOME:
On the 15M frame, HOME has been accumulating for quite a long time in the 0.0094–0.0098 zone. The price has been sold down many times but has not been able to break the bottom, indicating that the selling force is weakening.
The most important point is that the price has broken out of the consolidation zone and at the same time broke the short-term downtrendline. After the breakout, the price continues to hold the 0.0100 area instead of returning to the bottom.
On the 1D frame, HOME is also showing signs of recovery from a strong bottom. The price has now exceeded the 0.0100 Fibonacci zone, so if this area is maintained, the probability of continuing to extend the uptrend will be higher.
The next zone I expect is 0.01165. This is a near resistance zone and also an important target after the price breaks out of the consolidation zone.
Therefore, I chose to enter 0.009448, which is quite close to the support area instead of chasing when the price has risen sharply.
The invalidation point of the setup is below 0.00935. If the price turns down and loses this area, the breakout structure will be broken and I accept the stop order.
In Summary:
Entry: 0.009448
SL: 0.00935
Expected City: 0.01165
Area to Hold: 0.0100
Main reason: consolidation → trendline breakout → reclaim 0.0100 → towards the Fibonacci/upper resistance.
What I like most about this setup is that the R:R ratio is very good. I don't need the price to go up too far, as long as HOME continues to keep the current breakout structure, the order has an advantage.
Note: this is an analysis for my setup, not a recommendation to use 20x leverage. With high leverage, even a short scan can cause big damage. Maji Big Brother really did get hurt this time. I just finished refreshing the Hyperliquid public address, which was around 23:20 Beijing time on August 10. The account hadn't reset to zero, and the unsold position remained, but that ETH long position had dropped from the previous outrageous 6,600 to 4,200. This is no longer just minor tweaks. Between 6,600 and 4,200 ETH, with 2,400 ETH missing in between. At a price of over $18 million, the nominal size of the position is less than $4 million. Just moments ago, they were struggling on the edge of life and death, but now the market has cut them down in a huge chunk. Currently, the outstanding position is 4,200 ETH long positions, with a 25x cross-margin ratio, an average opening price of $1,893.59, and a position value of about $7.88 million. The account equity is only $190,400, and the withdrawable balance is still zero. The most striking thing is the floating loss. Previously, he relied on a low average price to hold up a bit of unrealized profit, but now the official interface shows an unrealized loss of about $73,000. In other words, the state of comfort that just now was just on paper, which was just a comforting gesture, was gone. ETH slammed down, and Maji Big Brother's account slid from the edge of the cliff to halfway up the mountain, still clutching a rock, with hardly any path left beneath his feet. The current liquidation price is around $1868.23. At that time, ETH was priced around $1876 to $1877, just over $8 away from the liquidation line. Calculated as a percentage, it's about 0.4本周宏观框架已经基本建立，只要能源价格短期反弹不会太过暴力，基本就会按照这个框架进行
核心看CPI数据能否把降息预期“抢”回来，宏观利率决定了我们手里的钱贵不贵，也决定了我们敢不敢花钱（投资）
如果CPI证明了降息预期要回归，未来的钱便宜，我们就敢花，就会推动风险市场
反之，如果利率预期不利，且美国经济风险暴露过大，那么风险市场相对受到打压。
所以，能源价格不失控，本周的宏观框架基本如此，反馈到我们的交易上，就是新趋势的开始/进一步回调的选择！
目前市场的动态来看：
债市、美元、黄金还有美股都出现了“分裂”走势，能源价格短期反弹，短期让债市收益率走高，但是美元走弱，黄金依旧走强，美股短期承受压力，风险偏好收缩
目前来看，在宏观数据or美伊局势没有出现决定性导向之前，市场定价还是有点混乱，多观察！#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $SPCX is repeatedly tugging around the $135 mark, with concentrated pressure triggered by the initial unlocks and short squeeze positions forming a delicate balance here.
There was a significant rebound and recovery on the market, with previously concentrated short selling positions forced to be recovered due to selling pressure falling short of expectations.
This sentiment warmth is based on a brief recovery in risk appetite, but the upcoming unlocking of 319 million shares on August 20 is posing the next liquidity test.
Once the liquid buying from short positions is fully absorbed, whether the subsequent 1.4 billion shares of unlocked supply translates into actual selling will directly determine whether the price can gain substantial support.
If volume stabilizes above $135 and holds this level, short covering may push the price further toward the $140 to $145 range, but a breakout of volume exhaustion would declare this path invalid.
If the price falls back below $135 and triggers a second round of selling to cash, risk-averse sentiment could quickly push the price back to the $130 or even $125 support level. If the rebound quickly engulfs selling orders, it could halt the downtrend.
When the market repricing ratio exceeds the rate of supply increase, the chip structure imbalance originally triggered by event risk will be broken, and the current short squeeze logic will be disproven.
The most noteworthy variable to watch in the next seven days is the direction of changes in the 250 million shares in the short selling pool as the unlock window approaches on August 20.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook: #黄金升破4300美元, are funds on hold or are they cutting rates or safe havens? #标普收盘再创新高, expectations for 8,000 points are heating up$SNDK SỰ BỨT PHÁ MẠNH MẼ ĐÃ DỪNG LẠI CHƯA?
1. Diễn biến giá $SNDK tối nay (Thứ Hai, ngày 10/08/2026)
Giá giao dịch hiện tại (Phiên tối nay): Quanh mốc 1.242 USD / cổ phiếu.
Mức tăng/giảm: Tăng khoảng +2,47% (tăng ~30 USD) so với giá đóng cửa phiên trước (1.212,21 USD).
Biên độ trong phiên: Giá mở cửa từ 1.203,41 USD và dao động trong khoảng 1.194,01 USD – 1.278,75 USD.
2. Sự bứt phá mạnh mẽ của $SNDK đã dừng lại chưa?
Đà tăng bùng nổ ngắn hạn đã chững lại và đang trong đợt điều chỉnh sâu, nhưng xu hướng dài hạn vẫn phụ thuộc vào triển vọng ngành.
Đỉnh cao nhất 52 tuần: $SNDK từng lập kỷ lục ở mốc 2.354,39 USD/cổ phiếu.
Tình trạng hiện tại: Với mức giá quanh 1.240 USD, cổ phiếu đã giảm hơn 47% từ vùng đỉnh. Như vậy, giai đoạn "tăng nóng" đẩy giá liên tục đã tạm dừng để nhường chỗ cho giai đoạn điều chỉnh và tích lũy. Dù vậy, so với mốc đáy của năm, mã này vẫn giữ mức tăng trưởng rất lớn nhờ đợt sóng bộ nhớ cho hạ tầng AI.
3. Vì sao đà tăng bị chững lại?
Làn sóng chốt lời quy mô lớn: Sau đợt tăng trưởng phi mã kéo dài từ đầu năm (khi tái niêm yết độc lập tách khỏi Western Digital), các quỹ đầu tư và nhà đầu tư cá nhân đã đồng loạt chốt lời để bảo toàn lợi nhuận khi cổ phiếu chạm vùng đỉnh trên 2.300 USD.
Tác động từ tính chu kỳ ngành bán dẫn: Thị trường chip bộ nhớ (NAND Flash) có tính chu kỳ rất cao. Khi tâm lý thị trường xuất hiện mối lo ngại về nhịp chững lại trong chi tiêu hạ tầng AI hoặc nguy cơ dư cung ngắn hạn, nhóm cổ phiếu bộ nhớ thường điều chỉnh rất nhanh.
Cần thời gian hấp thụ định giá: Mức giá vùng đỉnh đã phản ánh gần như toàn bộ các kỳ vọng tích cực nhất. Dòng tiền hiện tại trở nên thận trọng hơn, chờ đợi kết quả kinh doanh đột phá của các quý tiếp theo để quyết định có tiếp tục đẩy giá lên hay không.
Tóm lại: $SNDK đã qua giai đoạn tăng phi mã ban đầu và đang trong nhịp điều chỉnh hạ nhiệt từ đỉnh.
#CPIToResetFedBets
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn ETF这周资金疯狂回流，4月以来最强流入，CME对冲基金也从空头转身做多，机构真金白银在进场。企业机构还在持续囤BTC，美国那边比特币相关法案也在往前推，看多的故事讲得很漂亮。
但有个点千万别忽略，老牌巨鲸Strategy在砸币套现，卖出一千多枚BTC，优先回购股票不再囤币。
一边场外资金疯狂冲，一边老筹码在兑现离场。利好堆得越满，越要警惕利好落地杀行情。不要被满屏的多头消息冲昏头脑，现在不是闭眼猛冲的时候，风控永远放第一位。$BTC has reclaimed and is holding above $65,000 with quiet strength.
On August 10, Bitcoin traded steadily above that level-up roughly 3% on the week, after a soft U.S. jobs report eased near-term Fed rate-hike fears. $ETH tracked higher near $1,920, $SOL stood out with ~5% weekly gains near $77, and $BNB advanced modestly. $XRP lagged as the clear underperformer among majors.
The move was driven less by headlines and more by flows. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since April (combined ~$1.1B), led by BlackRock’s IBIT. A softer dollar and improved risk appetite helped, while the market largely ignored the CLARITY Act delay to September and minor Bitcoin-ecosystem noise.
Crypto continues to trade as a high-beta risk asset tightly linked to U.S. monetary expectations and institutional capital. When labor data softens and ETF demand returns, liquidity favors $BTC first, then rotates into liquid large-caps like $ETH and $SOL.
What to watch next?
July CPI lands Wednesday and remains the clearest catalyst. Sustained ETF inflows, dollar/yield moves, and positioning around the $65,800–$66,000 zone will decide whether this support holds or fades.The foundation wasn't solid, and no matter how flashy the drawings were, they were just piles of scrap rebar. I stared at CLARITY's construction drawings for three months—the Cloture motion submitted on August 8 was the load calculation report submitted by the structural engineer, but the congressional supervisors immediately took a break and ran off, postponing the acceptance of the load-bearing wall until September 15. Now Polymarket has set a 21% probability of completion for this building, pouring five million dollars of concrete, and not even a basement is exposed.
In my view, this legislative delay is a typical case of "pile foundation offset." CLARITY's steel structure design itself is fine—it wants to draw clear fire zones between exchanges, DeFi, and mainstream tokens, but the core controversy is stuck on load-bearing pillars: officials' crypto conflicts are like steel rebar corrosion, consumer protection is about floor thickness, anti-fraud rules are escape routes, yield products and stablecoins are elevator shafts for entire buildings—every floor is changing blueprints, and the construction and owners' committees are arguing so badly they can't even hang safety nets.
Work resumed in mid-September, and the first Cloture vote was on the concrete test block compressive strength. 65% of the approval votes were for the lower limit of strength grade; if it didn't meet it, the entire floor would be redone. And the problem exposed during this recess was even more fatal than the vote itself—the boundaries of the regulatory framework have regressed to a single vote, like a skyscraper's seismic rating only being evaluated after an earthquake. Even more ironically, $XGOOGL this US stock stock stands by and watches, its price curve is like the reflection of the podium's glass curtain wall, turning every delay in Washington into a spot of light—but no matter how beautiful the curtain wall is, it can't stop wind loads from tearing at the main structure.
Real architects understand that a white paper can be a rendering, but the legislative process is a construction log. The regulatory boundary is not a red line drawn in CAD, but something that must be marked on site with ink lines. Now this building is still sitting in the foundation pit, waiting for the tower crane on September 15th to decide whether to pour first or remove the formwork #clarityvotepushedtosep2026.08.10 US stock closing scenario forecast
$SNDK $SOXL $MU
Core Background: The market is fully waiting, awaiting Wednesday's CPI inflation data, with main funds reluctant to heavily bet on direction; Sectors are severely differentiated, computing power resilience is decent, and the storage sector faces the greatest pressure to realize profits.
Current market: opened slightly weaker, 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher, suppressing high-valuation memory chips; During the day, South Korea's SK Hynix surged then retreated, with negative sentiment continuing to spread through Micron and SanDisk.
Three closing scenarios (ranked by probability)
Scenario 1: Fluctuating throughout the day, closing slightly lower (most probable)
Trend path: Weak consolidation in the morning→ with a small rebound and recovery midway, but the rebound shows no volume and the high gradually declines; It is difficult to recover all losses by the close.
✅ Market Index: Nasdaq closed slightly lower;
✅ Semiconductor Sector:
Computing chips (NVIDIA, AMD) are holding firm; Micron MU and SanDisk SNDK remain weak;
✅SOXL: Follows sector pull, fluctuating downward;
Core logic: Funds are hedged in advance to avoid CPI uncertainty, with high-level hoarded chips sold on rallies, and no incremental funds actively entering the market.
Scenario 2: Bottoming out and rebounding, with a slight rise near the flat line (medium probability)
Necessary conditions to trigger: US Treasury yields continue to fall; The storage sector shows clear support and no longer hits new lows.
Trend: Early morning decline fears released, bullish funds competed at low levels, fluctuating upward, closing slightly higher.
Limitations: It is difficult for a large bullish candlestick to rally one-sidedly; the market is reluctant to aggressively attack, so the sustainability of the rise is limited.
Scenario 3: Sustained one-sided weakening, accelerated decline at close (low probability, risk scenario)
Trigger signal: The Nasdaq continues to hit new lows, the storage sector collectively shows no support, and the surge in volume leads to a decline.
Caution: Once this trend breaks out, it means funds anticipate a tough CPI in advance, and tech stocks will face increased pressure in the coming two days.
Targeted prediction of key targets
1. Micron MU / SanDisk SNDK (Storage)
It will be difficult for a strong rebound tonight. During the day, Hynix surge to cash out signals have already given a signal; any rally can easily trigger take-profit orders.
Trend most likely: weak oscillation, weak rebound.
2. SOXL (triple the semiconductor overall)
Driven by sector differentiation, there are large up-and-down fluctuations;
⚠️ In a volatile and weak market, leverage capital loss intensifies; do not blindly bottom-fish and hold positions.
A key watershed for practical market monitoring
1. If the Nasdaq continues to hold its opening low, at worst it will be a narrow range of oscillations;
2. If the Nasdaq continues to break below the morning low and fails to recover within half an hour, it favors scenario 3, and bulls need to be cautious;
3. Key Observation: Whether Micron can hold above the intraday low is a barometer for the storage sector's strength.
Important reminder
Tonight's closing price will directly reflect tomorrow's opening sentiment for SK Hynix and KR200 in the Korean stock market.
Try to control your positions in leveraged trading, and before CPI data arrives, avoid heavily betting on one-sided market moves. @OKX Chinese #本周三CPI公布. Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #OKX星球话题来啦 $SPCX
The reason for going long is also very simple
Elon Musk tweeted over the weekend, giving Starlink a vision of 2000 in annual revenue
At present, as long as the Starship reuse and v3 satellites succeed, it is highly likely to be achieved
So I think before it is completely disproved, spaceX is a very good speculation target
The first wave of unlocking a few days ago was the most dangerous, if this batch can't be dumped, 105 can be regarded as a solid bottom, the following unlocks will only affect the speed of the rise
Trading under these two assumptions, the current price close to the IPO is not expensive, chasing a rise is fine, if it goes wrong just accept it, pay for the belief 😁$BlockInfinity Evening Market Report · Korean storage companies have seen significant shareholder returns as catalysts; sentiment in the HBM sector has recovered, but real concerns remain
Risk warning: Information is provided solely for logical analysis and does not constitute investment advice
🌍 Macroeconomic environment
Global AI computing power chain sentiment is diverging, US Treasury yields are fluctuating at high levels, and the overseas tech earnings season is coming to an end. The storage sector is experiencing a major event, with leading Korean storage companies planning large-scale shareholder return plans. The news has directly driven a rebound in overseas storage stocks and spilled sentiment into the domestic semiconductor storage sector. Samsung and SK Hynix stocks have received short-term capital support.
An industry signal that's easy to brush off but is very strong: Korean companies plan a shareholder return plan totaling nearly 100 trillion KRW, including about 40 trillion KRW for share buybacks, roughly 2% of total share capital, with plans to be officially announced by the end of the third quarter. To translate: companies are preparing to make large share buybacks, sending signals to the market that cash flow is improving and valuing shareholder returns, easing concerns about excessive cash consumption in capital expenditures—a strong sentiment boost.
Looking back at this round of declines, Korean storage stocks previously saw a maximum short-term drawdown of about 15%, reflecting multiple negative factors: market rumors that Nvidia was cutting HBM purchases and pricing at a 50% discount (JPMorgan later clarified these rumors were false); The timeline for shareholder returns was unclear, and the IPO of subsidiaries brought uncertainty; Large-scale capacity expansion capital expenditures raised market concerns about massive cash flow consumption. After the financial report was released, panic subsided, and selling pressure from Korean leveraged ETF liquidations has been concentrated, with the market waiting for a new pricing anchor.
Institutions collectively expressed optimistic expectations: Bank of America is hoping Samsung and SK Hynix will implement clear shareholder return plans; JPMorgan Chase judges the industry's worst phase is over and maintains overweight holdings; Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Wolfe Research all give bullish ratings, with several institutions setting very high target prices.
Geopolitics & Industries are making significant moves again: leading downstream customers are seeking diversified supply sources, Apple is also testing HBM-related products, and the supply chain landscape is undergoing subtle changes. The spillover effect on the market is very real: shareholder buybacks address valuation and confidence issues, not mean HBM supply and demand are completely unchanged. Downstream customers purchasing in a dispersed manner brings uncertainty in order allocation, which is a pressure point that needs to be continuously tracked going forward.
The essence of the current market: the storage sector has shifted from "panic valuation" to a phase of sentiment recovery, driven by buyback policies, not entirely from further price surges. The positive news has already partially been reflected and cannot be simply pushed forward linearly to sustain unilateral gains.
Practical level: Sentiment is recovering, and after positive news is realized, there will be fluctuations. The key points for follow-up tracking are the official Q3 buyback plan text, HBM downstream order and quotation changes.
Summary of key points
1. ✅ Positive news: The 100-billion-yuan buyback plan eased market concerns about cash flow, the pressure from unwinding positions was released, overseas investment banks collectively bullish, and valuation recovery was pushed forward.
2. ⚠️ Risks: Downstream customer supply chains are diversified, and HBM order allocation faces uncertainties; The positive news is driven by expectations, and the final details of the plan will be announced at the end of the third quarter.
3. Transmission: Overseas storage sentiment is warming, and domestic storage and HBM-related industry chains will be catalyzed by sentiment, but fundamentals still depend on domestic manufacturers' orders and profit fulfillment. $SHOP USDT is showing one of the calmest moves on the screen. The perpetual contract is around 154.01 and is up only 0.19%. Compared with DOSUSDT's 7.97% surge and SKUUSDT's 7.43% decline, SHOPUSDT is practically flat. This suggests neither aggressive buyers nor sellers have established clear short-term dominance in the snapshot. Such low movement can mean consolidation, with traders waiting for a stronger catalyst or breakout before committing heavily. The important levels to watch are whether price begins expanding away from the current range and whether volume supports that move. For now, SHOPUSDT remains stable, but a quiet market can become active quickly once momentum arrives.
#OKXTraderVoices #SP500Eyes8000 #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn Earnings reports are exploding one after another, and stock prices are crashing one after another. SanDisk made a fortune in Q4, with stock prices plunging to its knees; Hynix HBM sold out, plunging 19% in a single day; Micron FQ4 guidance was 50 billion, but July still saw a 28% hammer. Is this a gold trap, or a cycle top? I lean in—the possibility of a pit hasn't been confirmed yet, but the top signals keep coming.
Three signals are facing each other.
First, SK Hynix was the first to back down. On August 9, news broke in Korea that SK Hynix was the first to slow down its price hikes on HBM, starting negotiations with clients at prices lower than its peers. Morgan Stanley is still calling for a target price of 3.7 million won and saying shareholder returns will exceed 100 trillion won by 2026, but the market senses something else: even HBM, the industry's most insecure and highest-margin product, is starting to lose momentum in price increases. On top of that, Jensen Huang cut Rubin Ultra's HBM configuration from 12-layer 384GB to 8-layer 192GB, cutting global HBM demand expectations by about 10%. SK Hynix just experienced a historic one-day drop of -19% during Korean trading, wiping out 308 trillion won in market value. Customers are cutting prices, prices are relaxing—can you say the bull market is intact? I don't believe it.
Second, how long can Micron's standalone rally last? Micron is indeed tough this time: FQ3's actual revenue reached 41.46 billion, with a gross margin of 84.9%. FQ4's guidance directly gave 50 billion, an 86% gross margin, and EPS of 31. The annualized EPS run-rate has already surpassed $120, HBM4 is mass-producing and selling out capacity by 2026, and its data center revenue annualized run-rate has surpassed 100 billion—the logic is solid. But only three companies can do HBM, and even SK Hynix has started to lower prices. Can Micron remain unaffected? HBM is an oligopoly market; when one company gives in, it's a price signal. Moreover, Micron was hit by 28.7% in July, and the current rebound feels more like oversold recovery, not a new starting point.
Third, $SNDK SanDisk's own accounts. Q4 revenue was 8.97 billion RMB / +372%, EPS 3.925 billion, gross margin 84.6% record high, 93.9 billion backlogged orders, 14 billion RMB buybacks—any sector would be a huge blow. But the market disagreed, because Q1 guidance was 10.3-10.8 billion, median 105.5, Wall Street 11.15; gross margin guidance was 83-85%, market expectation 86.7%. Jefferies was more direct, slashing the target price from 3000 to 1750, reasoning that "the fastest short-term profit growth phase may be just past us." It fell from 2354 to 1184, then hit the knee-high and rebounded to 1250, without even touching the downtrend.
$BTC where? Still playing dead at 65,000. Don't laugh, it's really a sentiment indicator. BTC is hovering around 65,000, and from its peak to now, it's been severed. AI storage, HBM, and crypto are essentially high-beta assets built up by this round of liquidity + tech narrative. BTC has not hit a new high for two months, which means off-exchange incremental funds haven't entered the market. In this context, storage stores want to rebound through oversold selling, but lack confidence. Conversely, if SanDisk really sets the mood on August 13 and Micron Hynix follows the rally, BTC with high Beta will likely be dragged along — on the same string.
So, is the AI memory bull market still stable? My judgment: the long-term logic hasn't been broken, and short-term peaking signals are accumulating.
The long-term logic is that AI's demand for storage is structural—HBM4, DDR5, enterprise-grade SSDs, NAND long-term contracts are not just hype, but real cloud vendors lining up to buy them. But the short-term problem is: the best expectations have been fully met, where can the 84% gross margin still rise? HBM prices have already been lowered; is the NAND inflection point far off? SK Hynix's order cuts are the first crack; SanDisk's guidance falling short of expectations is the second. Who will be next?
August 13th, the day of verification. SanDisk's CEO and CFO came out to defend themselves, saying the market isn't looking for Q4 profits, but the NBM long-term contract structure, response to SK Hynix's order cuts, and the 2027 NAND market split. Showing hard data, 1200 is a gold pit, but Micron Hynix and BTC can catch their breath; Playing Tai Chi to talk about vision—this rebound is just a wave of escape, and it still needs to step down.
Explosive earnings reports but falling stock prices, peers loosening prices, BTC lying flat—do you think this is a bull market relay, or is the cycle knocking on the door? $BTC
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SPCX The lifting of restrictions has just begun, and there's still a long queue behind it. The selling pressure is just one wave after another, and there's no time to catch a breath.
Let's count the days ahead on our fingers:
The batch of 911.5 million shares on August 6 was basically an appetizer—holding on, huh? Don't worry—on August 20, another 319 million shares followed, and that's not all—September and October each will sell nearly 700 million more shares! That's a huge increase compared to the first batch. Moreover, these nine phases of unlocking in batches will last until 2027, and Musk and some major shareholders have held out until June next year. When do you think this wave of shares will finally subside?
Looking at the bears, over 250 million shares are still trapped in the short selling pool, and these people haven't been completely gone. If insiders really start dumping shares in bulk after the lock-up, the bears will have reinforcements and sell more easily; But if the selling pressure isn't as strong as imagined, and the bears are forced to exit in a panic—the battle between bulls and bears is still hanging by the line.
My honest thoughts: The first round didn't crash and it went up, that's tough, but don't use that time as a shield. The combined 1.4 billion new shares in the next two months will be the real test. At this level, you might say it's cheap, but over a longer period, it might not be expensive; But it's reasonable to say it's expensive, since the chip tsunami hasn't subsided yet. Anyway, I won't gamble heavily at this critical moment; I'd rather bring a small stool and wait for the chip structure to stabilize. Rush in? No rush. Run away? No panic. Patience and wait; surviving long through storms is what matters most.$BTC and $ETH have both bottomed out, and will start to fluctuate upward starting in August,
Those who wait for the last drop will eventually miss out.
Reason: From an emotional perspective,
The extreme panic lowest point of this year's bear market occurred in February,
This is a bottom signal, as evidenced by BTC, SOL, and others.
In terms of timing, a typical bear market lasts about a year.
Since October 2025, BTC has been falling steadily without any recovery,
ETH has been going bearish since August, falling for half a year straight.
The acceleration of time leads to a shortening of space, and in terms of retail consensus,
Everyone believes there will be one last drop in October and November, which will be an excellent opportunity to buy the dip,
According to the 80/20 rule, it's unlikely to follow this script.
I think February hit the bottom, June and July are definitely at the bottom, just like June 2022, when it hit bottom,
After half a year of volatility, the absolute bottom in November is almost the same,
This means the market is about to start.🚨 Latest move by Michael Burry, the 2008 crash predictor:
"The SOXX rebound offers an attractive short entry point."
He added to his SOXX short position at $541.
My judgment:
This is Burry's third time adding to his semiconductor short. The previous two were around $643 and $536.
His bearish logic: SOXX's price-to-sales ratio is as high as 16 times, with valuation deviation even exceeding the 2000 internet bubble. He believes there is a bubble in AI chip demand.
📌 This time at $541, he is betting the rebound is over and the decline will continue. The Senate's failure to pass the Crypto Clarity Act before its summer recess is the story shaping sentiment this week. With only 51 of the needed 60 votes secured, the bill is now pushed to September 14, extending months of regulatory ambiguity around market structure and token classification.
This matters most for assets whose valuation thesis leans on institutional-grade clarity. $XRP, still defending the $1 level, has been the clearest laggard, unable to join the broader recovery in $BTC and $ETH. Tokenization and real-world-asset plays like $ONDO and infrastructure tokens such as $LINK are similarly sensitive, since institutional allocation often waits for defined rules before scaling exposure. Meanwhile $BTC and $ETH continue absorbing steady ETF inflows regardless, showing sentiment is bifurcating between "regulatory-dependent" and "regulatory-agnostic" assets.
The delay doesn't kill the thesis, it just pushes the timeline. $HYPE and $SUI, both benefiting from derivatives and L1 rotation narratives, remain less exposed to this specific catalyst.
With clarity now a September question, is the market underpricing the risk of another delay, or already positioned for it?#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解
闪迪$SNDK 今晚直接一根线直拉1277，将近100点的涨幅
在这个位置出现放量反弹，说明1200附近有人愿意接货，市场的情绪正在从悲观中逐步修复。
核心催化剂是8月13日的Investor Day。
财报最大的问题就是弱指引，市场一直在担心这到底是管理层保守还是AI存储需求真的在降温。
140亿回购计划到底怎么执行也没说清楚。Investor Day正好是个窗口，今晚这波拉升，大概率是资金在提前进场布局，押注Investor Day给出超预期的内容。
财报本身是不差的，营收89.7亿、毛利率84.6%、EPS39.25，单看数字挑不出毛病。
弱指引经过近一周的消化，利空在逐步出清。
市场开始重新审视这份财报，这也解释了为什么1200附近有人愿意接货。
这波反弹能走多远，看两个信号：1200能不能守住，Investor Day有没有超预期的内容。
两个信号出来之前，先当反弹看，等确认再调预期。
$SKHYNIX $SPCX On Day 13, the CEO will explain three issues. Can a gross profit margin of 84.6% be maintained, can long-term contracts turn the company from a cyclical stock into a "revenue infrastructure", what is the specific roadmap of the new HBF architecture and BI CS8 QLC?
This sharp decline was not due to a fundamental collapse, but rather a difference in expectations that caused an emotional outburst. SanDisk sells storage, but the market now doesn't need to know how much it made in the past, but how long it can earn in the future. Day 13 is the time to see if the management can give this answer.
Remember, whether SanDisk can be revived this time also depends on the 13th, how the management answers, whether it can bring a satisfactory answer to investors or not! $BTC $ETH $SNDK
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn 第一波拉升总是最抓眼球的，但真正决定胜负的，是接下来的趋势走向，它才告诉你资金究竟在往哪里去。盯着最近24小时的资金流向看久了，我对那些短期涨幅最猛的token反而没什么兴趣了，真正让我在意的是——谁能在涨完之后，把趋势稳稳拿在手里。一根+15%的大阳线，如果第二天量能立刻萎缩、价格直接回吐全部涨幅，那这根K线就只是过眼云烟，毫无意义。📉 所以，下面这些名字才值得你放进观察清单：⚡ $BICO $MMT $BEAT $SPCX $CAP $UB。它们的问题不在于“会不会涨”，而在于——新流入的资金，是在持续进场，还是进了一下就跑了？ 回头看大盘的背景：BTC和ETH依然维持着相对平稳的姿态，市场并没有出现那种剧烈的大范围冲击。这种“稳而不烈”的状态，恰恰给选择性轮动提供了极好的土壤。资金不需要等大盘全面爆发才能行动，它可以聚焦在特定的赛道里反复试探、快速换手，耐心等真正属于自己的机会。 🟢 真正引起注意的目标：$BICO $CAP $AAVE $ONDO $LINK $TAO $WLD 这些币有一个共同特质：价格上涨时伴随成交量同步放大，回调时量能却明显收缩，K线图上呈现出清晰的资4.8%。 This is the proportion of Ethereum currently held by Bitmine, a listed company listed in the US stock market, to the global total supply. Specifically, the number of tokens is an astonishing 5.81 million.
While the entire crypto community's attention remains focused on how MicroStrategy leverages its Bitcoin purchase by issuing convertible bonds, another crypto giant in the US stock market has quietly completed its asset landscape restructuring. Bitmine's latest financial data shows that the company not only holds a total of $11.6 billion in crypto asset reserves but has also directly staked over 5.06 million Ethereum on-chain. This is equivalent to locking nearly $10 billion worth of Ethereum into a locally compliant node cluster called MAVAN (the US-made validator network).
This marks a landmark case of a listed company's treasury management shifting from pure speculative asset reserves to on-chain compliant rental entities.
If we compare Bitmine's approach with MicroStrategy's, we find fundamental differences in their asset holding logic.
MicroStrategy's strategy is a one-way β game: borrowing cheap fiat debt, buying Bitcoin in the secondary market and locking it in cold wallets, relying entirely on unilateral price increases to push up the company's net asset valuation. This model has extremely high explosive power in a one-sided bull market, but during months of volatility and bottoming, with no operating cash inflow, the company can only keep borrowing new funds to maintain its valuation myth.
Bitmine, on the other hand, nests an extremely efficient on-chain hematopoietic loop in its case.
By staking 5.06 million Ethereum to compliant nodes, based on the current Ethereum network's annualized yield of about 3.5%, the company can painlessly earn nearly 200,000 pure native Ethereum annually through on-chain verification services. This means hundreds of millions of dollars in net profit from non-interest-bearing assets flow continuously into the company's ledger each year. Even better, the company directly uses the on-chain rental income as leverage for its $4 billion stock buyback plan. This not only provides solid buying opportunities for its own shares in the secondary market but also directly dilutes external shareholders' interests, completing a perfect closed loop from on-chain staking yields to value returns from US shareholders.
To be honest, I myself tried using leverage to hoard coins a few years ago, or depositing tokens in various DeFi lending platforms and wealth management projects to earn annualized returns. The result was either being forced liquidation during extreme spike volatility or having the project team run away and losing all my principal. After these painful lessons, I realized that in the crypto world, safe and stable cash flow is your ultimate weapon for long-term survival through storms. Bitmine's approach leverages the listed company's extremely low compliance funding costs, turning the most stable on-chain validator nodes into cash cows on the company's balance sheet.
Moreover, Bitmine specifically emphasizes the localization compliance of its validator nodes. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical and regulatory intensification, this approach of placing validation networks under the watchful eye of U.S. regulators not only circumvents potential legal sanctions but also caters to the stringent margin of safety requirements of traditional pension funds and institutional funds.
This raises the threshold for holding coins in the treasury of public fund listed companies directly from buying and holding to deeply participating in consensus layer governance and capturing network rent.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? Didn't go out today, turned down a so-called "resource connection" afternoon tea. Those occasions are basically just people feeling each other's chips in their pockets, ending with "let's keep in touch." Now that it's quiet, I scanned a few wallet addresses I follow and pulled up the on-chain liquidation data from the past three days to take a look. Price is an illusion of sentiment, but the liquidation line is ironclad rules—once hit, you have to surrender.
Let me pick a few that left an impression.
The whole on-chain environment is still in that lazy state. The average Gas price on $ETH mainnet has dropped to single digits; miners probably don't even have the energy to curse anymore. But one phenomenon is worth noting—several large addresses that have been silent for almost two months started transferring $ETH into Lido today. The amounts aren't large, but the moves are so synchronized it looks like they checked their watches beforehand. On the $SOL side, there was a cross-chain stablecoin transfer this morning, which was split into dozens of small amounts and dispersed into several lending protocol deposit ends, as if quietly setting up some interest-earning outposts.
The old faces in DeFi aren't very active, but there are things in the details. In $AAVE's v3 pool, a certain institutional address executed a loop loan operation, with both collateral and borrowed assets being stablecoin pairs. After all the fuss, the interest spread was minuscule, but someone was still willing to pay the Gas fee to arbitrage, indicating that idle funds in the market are indeed so abundant there's nowhere else to go. The $MKR governance voting page was so quiet today you could hear echoes; the proposal pass rate was 100%, but participation addresses were pitifully few—whales are used to not speaking, casting their votes and leaving. In $UNI's front-end trading pairs, a few long-tail tokens suddenly showed significant turnover, clearly market makers adjusting inventory, unrelated to retail traders. $LINK's oracle remains the same, reporting prices every minute, neither happy nor sad, like a civil servant who never makes mistakes.
The RWA sector had a striking transaction today. A newly created address just two weeks old was shuttling $USDC back and forth between Ethereum and Polygon, ultimately gathering it into a protocol dedicated to buying US Treasury tokens. Single transactions were only a few hundred thousand dollars, but repeated seven or eight times in one day, as if testing the slippage tolerance of some automated strategy. On the $ENS side, a nearly expiring domain was renewed by the original owner with a premium for ten years. This kind of operation usually means more than just one wallet is bound behind it, possibly a whole set of DApp front-end entrances.
Nothing much to say about Meme; the script is still the same old one. The $PEPE and $DOGE charts overlaid look like photocopies—when Bitcoin moves, they twitch; when Bitcoin rests, they lie flat. But the internal thermometer is definitely dropping—the number of people discussing meme in the group is down 60% from last month, and those still spamming are basically bots. The second- and third-tier meme coins' K-lines have formed a standard long-term horizontal descending staircase pattern; occasionally someone places a buy order at the bottom, as if waiting for a pie to fall from the sky.
The health reports for L2s don't look good today. $ARB's cross-chain bridge inflow dropped to the second-lowest point this year; $OP's Sequencer revenue also hit a new low. The whole track seems to be going through a long hard time. In $STRK's community forum, someone posted asking "Is development still ongoing?" The best reply was "The codebase was updated last week." That single sentence is already the biggest comfort for token holders.
$SUI and $APT, these two hard-luck brothers, both hit new local lows today. Their combined total locked value is less than a fraction of a single project's peak last year. $SEI is a bit more resilient but its volume has shrunk to a heartbeat-less state; the intervals between transactions are getting longer, and the sparse price points on the order book look like a few distant camel thorns in the desert.
There are some other names that were once stars in major communities but now are like concert tickets forgotten in an old drawer: $INJ, $TIA, $FXS, $PENDLE. The projects themselves haven't released any bad news, development progress is ongoing, but market attention is like a burnt-out light bulb—you can twist it all you want, it won't light up. Of course, some might say "After a big drop comes opportunity," which is true, but before opportunity arrives, deeper declines often come first.
Bitcoin's volatility today is ridiculously low; hourly K-lines are steadier than an old lady's stroll, with closing and opening prices differing by just a few dozen dollars. This sticky sideways movement is most evident in the options market—implied volatility across all maturities has dropped to the lowest in nearly half a year. Not surprising, everyone knows summer is the off-season, but the more so, the more you have to watch for when that string will snap. $SOL had a small afternoon charge; when it reached near the intraday high, a $2 million sell order hit precisely, immediately suppressing the momentum—this kind of precise sell order doesn't look like an emotional trade, more like a quant strategy's take-profit trigger.
The AI sector showed some vitality today. $FET and $RNDR outperformed the market by one or two points during the afternoon's small rebound, but those chasing quickly found glaring sell orders at every level above, like an invisible ceiling. $AR remains cold and indifferent, volume shrunk to the extreme, the order book so thin it's transparent; if big money wants to move, it wouldn't take much effort to move it up or down ten points.
Roughly summarizing today's observed capital flows. Net buyers clearly: $LINK, $AAVE, $MKR, $ENA, $ONDO, $ENS, $FET, $RNDR. Net sellers persistently: $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $WIF, $BONK, $FLOKI, $SUI, $APT, $SEI, $CRV, $CAKE. But this only shows who had the upper hand today; when you wake up tomorrow, whether the market flips depends entirely on how US stock futures move overnight or if some big influencer tweets something at 2 a.m.
The glass curtain wall of the office building opposite the window has shifted its reflection from glaring white to warm yellow. Evening has come, the wind has risen, and the newly transplanted ginkgo leaves downstairs rustled for a while before quieting down. I got up and cracked the window open a bit; a breeze carrying the city's residual warmth slipped in, blowing away the stuffiness that had built up in front of the screen all afternoon. SpaceX Evening | The rocket is back, tonight let's see if the $135 can become a launch pad
SPCX surged 15.8% last Friday, quickly rebounding from the unlocking panic, and regained near the $135 IPO price before tonight's market closed. Previously, over 900 million shares were eligible for sale, and the market expected a wave of selling, but actual selling pressure was temporarily lower than expected, and crowded short positions actually fueled the rise.
Last week, I simulated a short position and got stopped loss, losing money from a hotpot meal; Tonight, I don't plan to chase long with emotion. $135 is the most critical boundary between long and bear: if it can hold with increased volume after the open, I'll focus on 140–145; After a rally, it falls back below 135, first targeting 130; if it falls further below 135, it may retest 125.
Fundamentally, quarterly revenue was about $7.8 billion, up over 90% year-on-year, but a $541 million loss and high AI capital expenditures remain valuation disputes. Tonight, it's not just about bulls or falls, but about whether to cash out or continue holding after unlocking tokens hit $135. Do you think tonight is a second launch, or a dedicated capsule to chase highs?
$SPACE
#SpaceX #SPCX #美股交易不构成投资建议.趴在国会大厦对面楼顶的乱石堆里，热浪把高倍瞄准镜里的视线熏得微微扭曲——目标在最终扣动扳机的前一秒躲回了地下掩体。
CLARITY法案的射击窗口被强行关闭。8月8日抛出的那记闭门动议，充其量只是一发照亮了政客们倦怠面孔的曳光弹，并未击中任何实质靶心。随着国会进入休会期，这群掌握规则制定权的决策者撤离了前线，将真正的决胜时刻推迟到了9月中旬。9月14日重新集结，9月15日的第一轮表决，才是第一发破甲弹真正上膛的时刻。
对于极具纪律性的狙击手来说，漫长的等待从不是煎熬，而是修正弹道数据的黄金期。Polymarket上堆积了超过550万美元的下注资金，但今年法案通过的概率却被死死压在21%。在我的瞄准镜里，这代表着横切风速极度不稳定，侧风修正量高达三密位以上。利益冲突的摩擦、消费者保护的扯皮、反欺诈规则的胶着，以及收益产品与稳定币的监管红线，就像分布在射程路径上的五重掩体。在这些障碍被彻底清理干净之前，任何盲目打出的资金子弹都会被无情偏折。
美股Token标的 $XINTC 此时与加密大盘的联动，不过是潜伏期里远处摆动的诱饵靶。DeFi的生死边界、大盘主权Token的合规身份，乃至整个市场的流动性脉搏，全被死死系在九月那一发信号弹上。$XINTC 随美股大盘的微弱跳动，充其量是掩体后散落的碎石，完全无法作为开火的基准信号。
不要在迷雾重重的风口暴露你的潜伏位置。没有绝对清晰的盈亏比，没有锁定靶心时的呼吸停顿，就绝不扣动扳机。
9月15日，等硝烟散尽，或者等猎物走出掩体。Bitcoin is currently oscillating repeatedly around $65,000, and has recently been following a fragmented candlestick for some time. This pattern is actually worth noting—historically, every time such narrow fluctuations occur, it often signals that a major market move is brewing.
Let's review the previous two similar structures:
At the end of December 2022, the daily fluctuation of the fragmented candlestick was only about 0.5%, lasting about 20 days. At that time, the price fluctuated around $20,000 for nearly half a year, then three major bullish candlesticks broke through directly, completely breaking out of the bear market range.
In September 2023, most trading days also fluctuated less than 0.5%, lasting 9 days. At that time, the price had been hovering around $30,000 for half a year, then entered a slow upward channel, gradually starting a new round of gains.
Now, in August 2026, the fragmented candlestick has reappeared, with daily fluctuations of less than 0.5%, lasting nearly 10 days. Meanwhile, the price has been fluctuating around $60,000 for more than half a year. The current structure is indeed very similar to the previous two times.
Fragmented candlesticks often show signs of market sentiment drying up. This kind of market is the most exhausting—a sharp drop at least keeps people emotionally volatile and gives you a few words to chat. But with this kind of flattery, even the desire to discuss is almost gone.
I'm already fully invested. I'm not too hung up on direction. If it goes up, I'll enjoy the results from my position; If it falls, I'll use up to 10% of my position to buy some Bitcoin- and Ethereum-margined contracts.
In theory, selling pressure is fading, sentiment is drying up, and this state is likely the quietest moment before dawn. Let's wait and see what happens next.我是刺哥，三星这事比绝大多数人以为的要大得多。
8月初，三星在Galaxy Unpacked 2026上宣布，Samsung Wallet将原生支持稳定币功能，未来覆盖超过8亿台Galaxy智能手机。三星钱包目前在韩国拥有近1900万用户，服务覆盖61个国家。演示界面出现的是Circle的USDC。三星确认今年内将在部分国家率先推出稳定币账户开设、跨境汇款和线下支付功能。
三星具体要做什么
三星计划提供与法币挂钩的储蓄和支付账户，用户直接在手机钱包里存储、转账、充值稳定币。三星Pay的网络会被打通，稳定币余额直接像普通银行卡一样在线下POS机消费。底层合规、托管、清算由Circle、Coinbase等持牌机构负责，三星提供前端和硬件入口。三星的目标是同时推出美元和韩元计价的稳定币，由三星SDS和韩国最大交易所Upbit的母公司Dunamu提供底层基础设施。三星持有Dunamu约4.08亿美元股权。
这件事为什么重要
稳定币大规模普及的核心瓶颈从来不是流动性，是用户触达能力。加密投资银行Areta亚太区负责人Joseph Goh说得直接，“分销渠道才是稀缺资产，而三星拥有大量用户入口”。8亿台手机预装原生稳定币功能，意味着全球最大的手机厂商直接把数字美元塞进了普通人的口袋里，不需要下载任何应用，不需要注册任何交易所，打开手机钱包就能用。
三星选择的是托管模式，跨入受监管的金融业务领域。这意味着三星不是简单加个功能，是在用合规框架跑通稳定币的支付场景。三星Wallet产品经理Lee Dinham说得很清楚，“三星钱包成为跨Galaxy设备和服务的互联金融生态系统的基础，将支付、奖励和数字资产融合为统一体验”。
三星在加密领域布局多年。2019年就通过Knox安全模块推出数字资产钱包，支持比特币、以太坊等主流资产存储。2025年与Coinbase合作将加密购买整合进钱包，覆盖7500万美国用户。这次原生稳定币是这条路线的最新一站，也是最大的一步。
对稳定币赛道的长远影响
三星这一步的意义不在当期，在远期。如果8亿台设备的装机基数中最终只有1%成为活跃稳定币用户，那也是800万人。稳定币从链上交易工具走向日常支付工具，需要一个关键节点，而手机厂商预装就是这个节点。Circle押注Arc主网在做机构端的基础设施，三星在做零售端的用户入口，两条线同时在推进稳定币的支付场景扩展。
对USDC的直接影响是立竿见影的。三星是目前唯一公开将USDC作为演示案例的主流手机厂商。如果三星最终选择USDC作为首发稳定币，Circle将直接获得全球最大规模的分发渠道。
三星不是要发币，是要让每一部Galaxy手机都能收发数字美元。这个方向比发币本身大得多。顺带说一句，这对BTC不构成竞争，BTC是价值存储，稳定币是支付工具，两个赛道解决的是不同的问题。支付的通道被打通之后，价值存储的需求只会更强。
刺哥说完了。你细品。#三星钱包将接入稳定币，支付场景继续扩展 $BTC $ETH $BICO 🚨 BTC is moving again — but I’m not ready to call this a breakout yet.
I was watching the market early this morning, and $BTC suddenly started getting volatile, bouncing around the $65K level like it was trying to make up its mind.
Open interest is up 2.66%, while Friday’s ETF flows also showed more than $100M in net inflows. That tells me traders are definitely waking up.
And it’s not just BTC.
Something is quietly happening underneath the surface. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index has climbed to 54, while trading volume on South Korea’s Upbit has exploded over the past two days. It almost feels like some capital is rotating out of traditional markets and looking for opportunities in crypto.
Then came Friday’s crazy -23K nonfarm payroll print. That immediately cooled rate-hike expectations and brought rate-cut bets back into the conversation.
In other words, the macro environment just gave crypto a little breathing room. 💧
Now the big question is:
Can BTC actually turn this momentum into a sustained move higher, or are we about to see another fake breakout?
Because honestly, this market has already trapped plenty of traders on both sides.
So if $BTC starts ripping again, enjoy the move — but don’t let leverage turn excitement into a liquidation. 👀
Sometimes the smartest trade is simply giving the market room to prove itself.
#DailyOrbit BTC 這一輪先看速度與語氣，別只看熱門排名
OKX Onchain OS 在 08 月 10 日 20:00 記錄到 BTC 一小時 43 次提及，其中 X 38 次、新聞 5 次。
和二十四小時每小時平均相比，這一輪速度是 0.98 倍，屬於「大致貼近長窗均值」；語氣則是偏多 30%、偏空 21%。兩條線沒有必要硬湊成同一個結論：熱度回答多少人在談，語氣回答文本偏向哪邊，兩者都不能直接代替成交與資金流。
下一輪若速度、新聞來源和實際市場成交一起延續，再提高判斷信心；若很快回到均值，這次變化就更像短窗噪音。($SPACE )
The market is waking up as liquidity flows back into altcoins. Whale accumulation and increasing volume suggest the next move could be stronger. SPACE is holding its support well and remains bullish.
Watching: Support at 0.00545 | Breakout above 0.00565
EP: 0.00545 – 0.00555
TP1: 0.00590
TP2: 0.00625
TP3: 0.00670
SL: 0.00520The CLARITY bill vote has been postponed to September, the regulatory implementation window has been pushed back, and short-term market expectations need to be recalibrated.
This change does not alter regulatory direction, only slowing the pace of realization. Previously, some funds had already priced in regulatory benefits, but the delay in voting means these expectations cannot be realized for now, and BTC, ETH, and related compliant narrative assets may face short-term volatility.
But from a medium- to long-term perspective, there's no need to overinterpret it.
The key is not whether the vote will take place in August or September, but whether the U.S. continues to move toward a clear crypto regulatory framework. As long as the direction remains unchanged and the bill ultimately takes effect, its greatest value is not to stimulate retail investor sentiment, but to reduce policy uncertainty for traditional institutions entering the crypto market.
Next, pay attention to three signals:
First, whether September can enter the substantive voting phase. It is only a delay, not a directional obstacle, so the impact is limited.
Second, whether ETFs and institutional funds continue to flow in. Regulation is the catalyst; capital is the core driving force behind the market.
Third, whether BTC and ETH remain relatively strong despite the delayed positive news. If prices do not weaken significantly, it indicates the market is digesting the delay expectations.
The delay in CLARITY is a short-term positive delay, while the medium- to long-term seems more like a delayed schedule. What truly needs to be watched out for is not "a month late," but a reversal in regulatory direction. As long as the direction remains unchanged, this time it is more likely to be delayed rather than missed.
BTC will continue to monitor capital flows in the short term, while ETH and compliant narrative assets will focus on whether the September window can reopen. $BTC #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, the regulatory window has shifted backward 🔥 $OKB isn’t chasing the market anymore. The market is starting to price it like “little Bitcoin.”
If you still see $OKB as nothing more than an OKX fee-discount token, you might be missing what’s actually changing underneath it.
The biggest story is simple: 21 million supply.
After the August 2025 changes, OKB’s total supply was permanently locked at 21M, with no new issuance and the relevant contract permissions removed. That makes the scarcity story fundamentally different from a token that relies on periodic buybacks.
But scarcity alone doesn’t create value.
Utility does.
And that’s where X Layer comes in. 🔥
X Layer is becoming more than just another L2. Native USDC and CCTP integration, growing stablecoin liquidity, rising DEX activity, and OKB sitting at the center as the network’s gas token all give the token a reason to actually be used.
Every AI-agent transaction, RWA activity, and on-chain exchange interaction potentially adds another layer of demand.
Then there’s the Wall Street + compliance narrative.
ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, invested in OKX at a reported $25B valuation. At the same time, OKX is pushing further into tokenized stocks, ETFs, and regulated financial products.
That changes the story.
$OKB starts looking less like a simple CEX token and more like fuel for a financial ecosystem connecting traditional markets with on-chain infrastructure.
And then the chart woke up. 📈
The 85–88 range broke with expanding volume, short-term resistance around 88 and 91 was taken out, and the combination of a fixed 21M supply with relatively thin liquidity created the perfect environment for a squeeze.
So no, I don't think this move is simply “OKB playing catch-up.”
The market is repricing the narrative:
First, supply collapsed.
Now, utility is growing.
And Wall Street is starting to pay attention.
That’s a very different setup.
Of course, I’m not ignoring the risks. X Layer still has to prove that its real economic activity can catch up with the massive infrastructure narrative.
#DailyOrbit #比特币BIP-110 Fork Stalled, Miner Support Insufficient Brief: Some in the community wanted to propose BIP-110, aiming to restrict inscriptions and other block-occupying data in the Bitcoin network, so they created a fork chain. However, miners' hash rate was completely unresponsive, and the fork chain nearly collapsed, so it never took off.
What exactly is this about?
- Supporters of BIP-110: Currently, inscriptions and various image data are written into Bitcoin blocks, crowding normal transfer slots, making blocks prone to congestion and driving up fees. This proposal intends to restrict large amounts of non-financial data from occupying Bitcoin block resources.
- Opposition: The core of Bitcoin is openness and neutrality—anyone can write to the chain. Manually restricting certain data is like changing the underlying rules. Once opinions split, there is a risk of chain splits. Some people will join the new chain, while others will stay on the old mainnet.
Actual result: The fork chain supporting this solution went live for only 8 hours, mined only 2 blocks, and then stopped mining, already trailing the Bitcoin mainnet by more than 80 blocks. Leading mining pool F2Pool also openly doubted it, saying that almost no miners came to run this forked chain with hashrate, directly declaring the fork attempt a failure.
Here are a few of my insights
1. Bitcoin's influence and computing power are a major importance, not decided by a small group of developers
Even if some communities and developers find inscriptions annoying and want to change the rules, as long as miners and the vast majority of hash power don't follow suit, the proposal won't be realized. This fork is a typical example: there are ideas, but without hash power support, the fork chain freezes and can't run. The Bitcoin mainnet is completely unaffected, and the BTC we trade in daily life remains unchanged.
2. Community conflicts over inscriptions will persist for a long time and will not end there
Inscriptions do bring real problems like soaring fees and block congestion, but at the same time, they also bring new ecosystems, transactions, and traffic.
On one hand, they complain it is devastation on the Bitcoin network; on the other, they believe the network should allow everyone to use it freely. This fork failed because this solution didn't work; the community will continue to argue and propose other improvements.
3. The impact on token prices is very limited, making it a technical governance event within the community
This is merely a technical debate within the Bitcoin community; the forked chain has failed, and no real mainnet split has occurred. Ordinary secondary market trading funds basically won't panic or buy or sell BTC aggressively because of this incident.
What truly affects BTC prices are still macro factors like ETF funds, US CPI, and interest rate expectations. This news is mostly a topic within the community, just a minor emotional noise that cannot change the overall trend.
4. A practical issue: a few people trying to force the rules won't work
This incident also confirms Bitcoin's underlying logic: to change Bitcoin's core rules, one must obtain broad consensus among miners, nodes, and users. Agreeing with only a small minority is unacceptable; forcibly forking only results in a useless chain with no computing power and no one using.
Brief summary: The BIP-110 fork attempt was completely dead, but mainnet BTC remained intact. It exposed the community's huge disagreement over inscriptions, but in the short term, there was no way to eliminate inscriptions in one fell swoop. It's a technical circle bustling and only minor disturbances in the market, which won't change BTC's mid-term market trend for $BTC $SPCX Previously, everyone was worried that a large number of old shareholders would sell frantically and dump the market, but after the lock-up, not only did it not crash, it actually rebounded sharply, completely digesting the panic caused by the reopening. Currently, the market is trading sideways in the evening, and after a big rally, the pace of growth has clearly slowed. Considerable funds are willing to enter and buy shares, so short-term support remains solid. But the hidden risks remain. The lifting of the ban is not a one-time event; multiple batches of shares will be gradually released, and existing shareholders could sell at high prices to cash out at any time. Moreover, its valuation is very high, and with the support of two hot concepts—aerospace and AI—its stock price is especially volatile. When the market sentiment is good, it surges; when the market falls, it also falls without hesitation. Right now, the market is all focused on Wednesday's CPI data. US tech companies like SanDisk and SK Hynix $MU are hesitant to make big moves, and the Rockets are unlikely to break out of their own major rally. #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? Simply put: the crisis of the unbanned stampede has temporarily been avoided, but that does not mean it is completely safe. This is currently a pause phase after the rebound, with considerable resistance above. Do not treat this as the start of a new round of major gains to chase the market. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? After the earnings report came out, many short SPCX sellers feared further losses and started buying back shares to close positions, essentially short covering, pushing the stock price back in the short term. But this rally is more about bears giving up and exiting, rather than a large influx of new long-term funds. There are more explanations to comeENGLISH BELOW AAVE 这个位置，空单我敢挂但不敢追。 $AAVE/USDT - 做空 交易计划：（置信度：87.00%） 入场区间：90.22 – 90.40 止损：90.99 止盈1：89.80 止盈2：89.46 止盈3：88.95 为什么关注这个机会？ 日线趋势还是 bearish，BTC 大方向也压在空头这边，AAVE 反弹到 90.31 这个 4 小时参考位，正好卡在空头回补的常规区域。15 分钟 RSI 已经到 32.89，短线动能偏弱，但还没到极端超卖，说明下跌可能还有一段路要走。 我的计划是 90.22–90.40 区间挂 SHORT，TP1 看 89.80，TP2 89.46，TP3 88.95，SL 放 90.99。1 小时 ATR 只有 0.67，波动不算剧烈，所以 SL 不用拉太宽，止损明确，风险可控。如果价格先往上插针到 91 附近再回落，我也不会追，等结构确认再说。 这单的把握大概八成五，核心逻辑是日线趋势压制 + BTC 不配合反弹。关键就看 90.40 这个位置守不守得住，破了我就认错离场，不硬扛。 你怎么看？ 如果 TP1 到了，你们会$BTC
$MSTR
Last week, MSTR continued to sell BTC~
At an average price of 64,262, 1,690 tokens were sold, selling 100 million.
All of this 100 million yuan was used for STRC buybacks, and the price of STRC gradually returned to around 95.
At the same time, about 650 million worth of common shares were sold last week:
This 650 million was not used to buy BTC; almost all of it went into their cash reserve pool.
Currently, their cash reserves have reached $4.6 billion... Considering their total BTC value is about $55 billion... At this moment, their cash reserves are already equivalent to 8% of BTC's value...
This doesn't seem like "just to survive this bear market," because if their current annual interest costs are 1.7 billion (according to the official website), this 4.6 billion already exceeds their previous 24-month target...
Is this preparing for the next round of ammo reserves?
Waiting for the next wave of demand narrative to fire the bullet and add some fuel?
Or do you think 24 months of safety cushion isn't enough, so you should save for 36 months? (Currently, it's enough to pay 32 months of interest)Arbitrum One is still impressive, even though its price has dropped by more than 90%.
It is still the first blockchain to reach 3000+ RWAs, mainly thanks to several perpdexes choosing to build on Arbitrum, such as Variational and Ostium.
Tokenization is still accelerating, and the long-anticipated on-chain application (chain reform) has not materialized, and blockchain continues to expand broadly in the financial sector.
It's not just stocks; it seems there will be more asset tokenization, so Web2 chose to put it on-chain first.
More bullish on ETH $ETH $ARB 🚨 Breaking news: Is this nonfarm payroll a positive or negative news?
Tomorrow night at 20:30 (Beijing time), the U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be released.
This could become an important catalyst for the next phase of the US stock market, bonds, and crypto markets. More importantly—
It could directly reshape market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.
The previously released ADP employment data was significantly below expectations, sending a signal to the market:
👉 The U.S. job market may be gradually cooling down.
So, will this nonfarm payroll confirm this trend, or will it surprise the market again?
📊 Three scenarios, three market responses
1️⃣ Nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations + wages rose in tandem
🔥 Overheated employment → rate cut expectations delayed → US Treasury yields rising.
High-valuation AI, growth stocks, and the storage sector may face the greatest pressure.
$MU. $SNDK Profit-taking and capital outflows are more likely, whereas value-based blue chips in the Dow are relatively more resilient.
2️⃣ Nonfarm payrolls are significantly weaker than expected + rising unemployment
🚀 Cooling employment → rising expectations for rate cuts → US Treasury yields falling → technology growth stocks benefited.
AI hardware and storage sectors may experience an oversold rebound.
⚠️ But here is a key risk:
If the data is so bad that the market starts worrying about a recession, then the "interest rate cut boost" could quickly turn into "recession fear," triggering a widespread sell-off of risk assets.
3️⃣ Nonfarm payrolls basically met expectations
⚖️ Employment cooled mildly, neither hot nor lukewarm.
In this case, the current market structure may continue:
The Dow Jones was relatively strong, the Nasdaq fluctuated at high levels, and funds continued to rotate between different sectors.
Market returns:
Earnings report + earnings guidance + valuation + capital flows
The logic.
🔍 Besides nonfarms, what else am I paying attention to?
1️⃣ Storage sector: Rebound ≠ New main rally
Recently, the storage sector experienced sharp fluctuations following the earnings report.
$SNDK has already emerged from a clear deep V-type reversal, but the previous downward revision of expectations triggered by the earnings report has not completely disappeared.
One of the most critical observation objects right now is:
👉 $MU can the key support hold up.
If support is effective→ structural repair within the sector may occur.
If it effectively breaks below →, this round of storage market may enter a longer valuation digestion phase.
⚠️ Do not mistake an oversold rebound for a new major upward wave.
2️⃣ Market differentiation will continue
The trend of "all stocks rising together" is gradually fading.
The ones who can truly gain a capital premium are:
✅ The financial report exceeded expectations
✅ Guidance is stronger than expected
✅ Healthy cash flow
✅ Future growth is highly certain
Conversely, even if current profits are high, as long as future guidance is conservative and capital returns are insufficient, capital may continue to be abandoned by capital.
Next, stock selection may be even more important than index direction.
3️⃣ Unlocking pressure still cannot be ignored
$SPCX still faces significant unlocking pressure.
When liquidity is thin, this kind of supply pressure may temporarily amplify sharp market volatility.
👀 Key watchlist
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
⚠️ Momentum weakens / capital outflow
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🟡 Waiting for signal confirmation
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
💰 Strong stocks favored by capital
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🧠 The current core market logic
🟠 $BTC
The core of liquidity in the crypto market. The strength of BTC determines the overall risk appetite and heat of the market.
🔵 $ETH
Institutional funds continue to pay close attention, and the market is gradually completing chip exchanges and accumulation through fluctuations.
🟣 $SOL
A representative of strong resilience in the Layer-1 sector. If market liquidity expands again, upward resilience is worth attention.
🤖 $TAO & $WLD
AI remains one of the most important narratives in the market, and capital is continuously seeking new AI main themes.
🔥 $HYPE
It can serve as a window to observe market speculative sentiment and overall risk appetite.
🐕 $DOGE & $ZEC
A retail investor sentiment thermometer allows direct observation of whether short-term market speculation heat has reheated up.
🎯 The last sentence
There is no absolute positive or negative factor in the nonfarm payroll itself.
What truly matters is:
Nonfarm payroll data→ unemployment rate→ wages→ U.S. Treasury yields→ rate cut expectations→ risk asset responses
So tonight, don't just focus on that number.
Don't trade news itself.
🔥 The market's reaction to the news.
#星球日报 Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 65,000, having broken candlesticks for a while
This is a key signal, indicating significant volatility
We look at the bear market bottom in December 2022 and the same broken candlestick in September 2023
End of December 2022:
Broken K-line: about 0.5% per day, lasting 20 days
Volatility: June to December, half a year, around 20,000
Result: Suddenly, three large bullish candles directly broke through $20,000, breaking out of the bear market
September 2023:
Fragmented candlesticks: Most daily fluctuations are less than 0.5%, lasting 9 days
Volatility: April to October, half a year, around 30,000 yuan
Result: Entered a slow upward range, starting a bull market
August 2026
Broken K-line: daily below 0.5%, lasting 10 days
Volatility: February to August, half a year, around 60,000 yuan
Result: unknown
In a bear market, such a broken candlestick indicates emotional exhaustion. This is the most painful market; at least a sharp drop can keep us moving with emotional fluctuations and have topics to talk about.
Currently, I am fully invested
As for direction, I don't need to worry. If it's a sharp rise, then I'll just enjoy the full investment results
If it crashes, I will take up to 10% of my position to buy coin-margined contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum
Of course, theoretically, selling pressure is weakening and sentiment drying up is already the eve of dawn. Let's wait together for the market to unfold很多人现在都在等待： “真正的 Altseason 到底什么时候来？” 但如果仔细观察最近的市场结构，会发现事情可能没有那么简单。 目前： 🟠 $BTC — 依然是资金最重要的避风港 🔵 $ETH — 相对强度正在成为关键观察点 🟣 $SOL — 高Beta资产中仍然值得关注 ⚡ $XRP — 资金关注度存在，但价格表现却没有完全跟上 而最值得注意的地方就在这里： 💰 资金正在进入部分 XRP 相关投资产品，但现货价格并没有同步出现强势突破。 这意味着一个非常重要的问题： 资金流入 ≠ 价格必然上涨。 市场最终还需要看到： 📈 趋势 💧 流动性 📊 成交量 🔥 市场情绪 ✅ 价格确认 近期美国现货 BTC ETF 单周资金流入约 8.5亿美元，ETH ETF 同期也录得约 2.4亿美元的资金流入。 这说明机构资金正在重新回到主要数字资产。 但目前还不能因此宣布： “全面山寨季已经开始。” 更准确的描述可能是： 资金正在选择性进攻。 --- 📡 我的当前市场雷达： 🟠 $BTC 市场流动性的核心锚点。 🔵 $ETH 重点观察能否持续跑赢 BTC。 🟣 $SOL 高($XXLE )
The market is heating up again as volume continues to increase and whales quietly accumulate quality assets. xXLE is maintaining its bullish structure above support and looks ready for another leg higher if resistance breaks.
Watching: Support at 58.80 | Breakout above 60.00
EP: 58.8 – 59.4
TP1: 61.5
TP2: 63.5
TP3: 66.0
SL: 57.2CLARITY bill vote postponed to September, regulatory window moved back, short-term benefits turned into "delayed realization"
The CLARITY Act was originally highly anticipated by the market, but the vote was postponed to September, meaning the pace of implementing the U.S. crypto regulatory framework has slowed again.
This is not a change in regulatory logic, but rather a delay in the timing of regulatory fulfillment.
In the short term, the market may experience some disappointment. Previously, funds had already traded in advance in anticipation of some "regulatory implementation," but now that the vote has been postponed, this favorable news cannot be realized for now, and BTC, ETH, and some compliant narrative-related assets may experience short-term fluctuations.
But from a medium- to long-term perspective, there is no need to be overly pessimistic.
What really matters is not the vote in September or August, but whether the U.S. continues to move toward a clearer crypto regulatory framework.
If the CLARITY Act proceeds smoothly, the biggest change in the market may not be to stimulate retail investors to regain FOMO, but to further reduce policy uncertainty for traditional financial institutions entering the crypto market.
This is the true value of regulation.
For the market, three signals should be watched next
First, to see if September can re-enter the substantive voting phase.
If the delay is only a delay rather than substantial resistance, the market impact will be relatively limited.
Second, see if ETFs and institutional funds continue to flow in.
Regulatory benefits are only catalysts; what truly determines the sustainability of the market is capital.
Third, see if BTC and ETH can remain strong despite the extended positive news.
If the regulatory window moves later but BTC does not weaken significantly, it actually indicates that the market has begun to digest the delay expectation, and capital remains confident in long-term regulatory improvements.
The delay in the CLARITY vote is due to the short-term delay in the fulfillment of positive news, while the medium- to long-term effect seems more like a step forward in the schedule.
What the market really needs to be wary of is not "a month late," but a reversal in regulatory direction.
If the direction does not change, then this delay is more likely to be a delay rather than a failure.
For BTC, short-term attention remains on capital flows; For ETH and compliant narrative assets, the focus is on whether the regulatory window reopens in September. $BTC #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, the regulatory window will be postponed #财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $SPCX 一、近期完整行情复盘 SpaceX（SPC‑X）刚刚走完极具戏剧性的一轮行情。 在上市之后首份财报落地、千亿规模限售股解禁的双重利空冲击之下，股价最低下探至108美元，创下上市以来新低，市场普遍担忧海量解禁筹码会开启大规模抛售潮。 可现实出乎空头预料：解禁之后两个交易日，该股累计大涨23%，股价重新逼近135美元的IPO发行价，空头遭到猛烈挤压，空头回补已经成为现阶段行情最核心的驱动力。 二、拆解空头回补背后的底层逻辑 1、前期空头仓位体量庞大 在解禁到来之前，做空份额最高占到流通股本的36%，大量投资者押注限售解禁之后内部股东出货、股价继续破位下行。 现如今流通股因为解禁扩容至15.5亿股，依旧存在超过2.5亿股的空头头寸，占流通盘16%，庞大的空头仓位就意味着潜在的买盘储备。股价一旦止住下跌，空头止损离场便会催生逼空行情。 2、基本面并没有出现恶化 二季度财报成绩单整体亮眼：单季营收同比上涨92%，调整后EBITDA同比暴涨191%，星链业务稳步盈利、AI算力业务收入高速增长。 市场当初的恐慌仅仅来源于高额的AI#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
The market has already changed. As of 22:40, BTC has returned to 64,781 USDT, down 0.57% in 24 hours, hovering around support at 64,523; ETH is weaker, at 1,898.8 USDT, down 1.29% in 24 hours, just one step away from support at 1,894. Funds are clearly taking risks before the data, not celebrating early ⚠️
Although June CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month, it still reached 3.5% year-on-year, with the market expecting July's year-on-year growth to remain above 3%; Nonfarm payrolls in July fell by another 23,000. Cold employment and high inflation have kept the Fed in the middle. There were already three calls for rate hikes in July, and as soon as core services pick up on Wednesday, rate hike trading in September could heat up rapidly 🚨
If CPI is mild, BTC will first recover to 65,490, ETH will rise to 1,938, which would be considered a real return to risk appetite; If the data is hot and then falls below 64,523 and 1,894, don't rush to buy—volatility may continue to expand. Low CPI doesn't mean an automatic takeoff; growth concerns will also trigger a second wave 📈🔥
#CPI #美联储 #BTC #ETH #宏观交易🔥 As SanDisk's August 13 Investor Day approaches, the financial reports remain divided
SanDisk will hold its investor day on Thursday. CEO David Goeckeler will lead the team, with CFO Luis Visoso and core management in attendance.
This meeting was important because it happened to be stuck at a special moment—the bullish and bearish battle triggered by the August 5th earnings report was not yet over.
The financial report itself was actually shockingly shocking.
Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, up 372% year-on-year and 51% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding market expectations of $8.48 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $39.25, 1.12 times market expectations. Gross margin soared to 84.6%, setting a new single-quarter record since the spin-off. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-on-year.
Data centers are the absolute protagonists—quarterly revenue of $2.977 billion, up 1298% year-over-year and double quarter-on-quarter. A year ago, data centers accounted for only 12% of SanDibit's shipments; now it has risen to 38%.
But the stock price began to plunge from the close on August 5—down 5.4% in regular trading, continued to crash after hours, and at one point dropped more than 12% at the opening on August 6. It nearly halved from its June all-time high of $2,354.
The root of the conflict is the "expectation gap."
SanDisk's Q1 FY2027 guidance — revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, median $10.55 billion, below FactSet's consensus forecast of $10.8 billion. Gross margin slightly fell from 84.6% to 83%-85%. The market sees "growth may slow down," not "still surging."
But the other side is: SanDisk has already signed eight long-term agreements, locked in $93.9 billion in guaranteed income, covering more than half of the supply for the next four years or more. About 50% of FY2027 shipments have been locked in Bits, and FY2028 will rise to about two-thirds. There is also $15.5 billion in buyback authorizations, accounting for about 8.6% of the company's market value.
This brings us back to the core suspense of Thursday's investor day—whether management can use the HBF technology roadmap, progress on long-term NBM agreements, and capacity expansion plans to convince the market that this AI storage cycle is not a "peak" but a "gear shift."
HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) is a key variable in this narrative. SanDisk and SK Hynix just released their first HBF OCP technical specification on August 4, attempting to establish a new AI storage layer between HBM and NAND Flash. Investor Day is highly likely to reveal more commercialization timelines and technical details.
For trading, the market before Thursday is likely to be waiting — bulls are waiting for the HBF roadmap for confidence, while bears are confirming the logic of guidance falling short of expectations. SNDK has recently fluctuated between 1240-1260 USD. If investors provide an unexpectedly anticipated HBF commercialization timeline or a long-term contract update, it could trigger an upward correction; If the content is flat, divergences may continue to drag into a tug-of-war.
Another detail worth noting: August 14 is the SEC's 13F quarterly position disclosure deadline. Whether institutions reduced their positions at the storage sector at Q2 levels will be revealed in part of the time.
Do you think SanDisk's current wave is a "cycle peak" or an "AI gear shift"? Can HBF carry the next narrative? Let's talk in the comments 👇
#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, divergences in the earnings report remain to be resolved Family, this is true, and it's even more serious than you think.
On Sunday, U.S. Central Command issued a statement saying that as of August 9, the U.S. military has ordered a total of 55 merchant ships to change course, rendering 2 inoperable, and has boarded 2 more ships for inspection. A week ago, this number was only 35, but in just seven days, 20 more have increased. The U.S. military has deployed more than 20 warships in the Middle East to strictly enforce the blockade. This is a clear message to the market—the strait issue cannot be resolved in the short term.
For crude oil, this is the real "slow knife cutting the flesh."
Previously, the market speculated on the "ceasefire expectation," causing oil prices to plunge 8%. Now, the gap between expectations and reality is widening. Iran's foreign minister said it is negotiating with Oman on legal mechanisms and management methods for the strait, but on the other side, Iran is ramping up new conditions. Both sides have their own views, and the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices is difficult to completely eliminate.
Brent has rebounded from $79.36 at the time of the ceasefire to $83.48. If negotiations really break down, oil prices are very likely to surge.
For BTC, the logical chain is very clear
With rising oil prices → inflation expectations rising→ the Fed hesitant to budge→ delayed rate cuts →put pressure on risk assets. Wednesday's CPI was already hanging, and oil prices have fueled inflation expectations before the CPI is released. BTC has been grinding around 64,000 for so long, but what it lacks is a clear direction. If oil prices keep rising, the direction is most likely downward.
Mi Ge said a few words
The 55 ships changing course is no small number, which shows the US military is taking enforcement seriously. The biggest problem in the market right now is: on one hand, there is a ceasefire in trade; on the other, a blockade war is being waged. These two logics cannot hold at the same time; sooner or later, one will be disproven. Before CPI data and the situation in the strait become clear, don't heavily bet on direction. When you don't understand, controlling your actions is more important than anything else.
How long do you think this lockdown will last? Let's discuss in the comments. #霍尔木兹协议未落地, is oil price risk heating up again? Data in the coming days may directly change the market's judgment on the entire chain: interest rates → US Treasury yields → US dollars → risk assets → BTC. 📅 August 12 | One of the most important US CPI data points this week. The market currently expects July CPI to be about +0.16% month-on-month, and core CPI to be about +0.24% month-on-month. If actual data falls short of expectations: 🟢 Inflation cools → rate cut expectations heat up → US Treasury yields are under pressure, → US dollars may weaken→ risk assets gain breathing room; conversely, if CPI is significantly higher than expected: 🔴 inflation reheats → high interest rates may persist longer→ US Treasury yields rise, → US dollars gain support→ Stocks, gold, and crypto markets face pressure again. 📅 August 13 | PPI + Initial Jobless Claims CPI looks at consumer prices, while PPI helps the market assess cost pressures on the business side. The simultaneously announced initial jobless claims will continue to provide new clues about the U.S. job market. Looking at these two data points together is more valuable than looking at one individually. 📅 August 14 | Retail Sales + Consumer Confidence The market will then shift its focus to American consumers. Currently, the market expects July retail sales to be about +0.3% month-on-month. If consumption remains strong and inflation does not decline significantly, it may be harder for the Fed to quickly switch to easing. But if: consumption slows + inflation cools, then the market...📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 15)
According to liquidation data, short- and medium-term bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but long-term bears are starting to fight back, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $866,000, $645,100, $220,900
4 hours: $7.4799 million, $6.8855 million, $594,300
12 hours: $8.2405 million, $7.2731 million, $967,300
24 hours: $23.1299 million, $10.7632 million, $12.3667 million
From $BTC liquidation data, 1-hour, 4-hour, and 12-hour long liquidations crushed short positions; 1-hour bulls were 2.9 times the shorts, 4-hour ratios soared to 11.6 times, and 12-hour pressures about 7.5 times. The bullish sell-off trend was intense enough to penetrate the short and medium term; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with short liquidations crushing the bulls, who were 1.15 times bulls, and short squeezes erupted across the long cycle. Dog Farm completed a fierce turnaround on BTC by short-term long selling and long-term short squeezing—shorts in the short term were targeted and destroyed, long-term short sellers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $23.12 million. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 15
This week, three main market themes point to the same theme: macro narratives and industry logic are undergoing a synchronized repricing.
📊 CPI Determines Life: The scale of a rate hike in September hangs in the balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, August 12, the US July CPI will be released. FactSet's comprehensive forecast shows that overall CPI year-on-year is expected to fall from 3.5% in June to 3.4%, while core CPI year-on-year is expected to fall from 2.6% to 2.5%. Deutsche Bank expects a month-on-month increase of 0.15%.
Why is this CPI so critical this time? After the nonfarm payroll turned negative in July, the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from 57% to 44%. But CME data shows the probability of a rate hike still swings between 44% and 55%. A CPI that exceeds expectations is enough to instantly tip the scales toward a rate hike; A moderate data sheet could completely extinguish the flames of a rate hike in September.
💾 Storage stocks: Explosive performance, but stock prices have crashed
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, but after the earnings report, its stock price once plunged more than 11%. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 557%, but its stock price has dropped about 20% since its all-time high on July 14.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim has already "shorted and bullish," believing the most dramatic correction is nearing its end. The divergence between bulls and bears is: bulls firmly believe HBM supply shortages will continue at least until 2027; Bears point out that memory contract prices are expected to peak in Q4, and ultra-high gross margins are hard to sustain permanently. Performance is in the past; divergence lies in the future.
📈 ETF funds return: BTC returns to $65,000
Bitcoin spot ETFs ended an eight-week streak of outflows exceeding $8.2 billion. As of the week ending August 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $853.5 million, marking the strongest performance since mid-April. BlackRock IBIT attracted $479 million between August 3 and 5, accounting for 76% of total inflows.
Ethereum spot ETFs also strengthened, with a weekly net inflow of $245 million, maintaining net inflows for five consecutive weeks. Last week, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs together attracted about $1.1 billion in inflows.
Can BTC hold above $65,000? The key lies in CPI—if inflation is moderate, ETF inflows are likely to continue; If the data is strong, rising rate hike expectations could weigh on risk assets.
💎 Summary
CPI will determine where the scales tip for a September rate hike; The "unexpected plunge" in storage stocks proves valuations have outpaced fundamentals; The continued return of ETFs shows institutional funds are re-entering the market. All three markets have cleared out expectations within the same window — Wednesday's CPI data will be the ultimate judgment to test all this. #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a September rate hike be rewritten?
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?