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BitMine's ETH stacking game continues—last week it bought another 7,391 ETH, bringing its total holdings to 5,805,238, accounting for 4.8% of the total supply. Staking Yield: Annualized $257 million Currently, 5,067,309 ETH have been staked (accounting for 87% of total holdings), with an annualized staking yield of about $257 million, which is indeed a considerable cash flow. Total asset size: Total assets about $11.6 billion; Cash and securities: $104 million; additionally holding 209 BTC, $180 million in Beast Industries equity assets, and $69 million in Eightco Holdings (ORBS) investment. But the other side of the glamorous data is ongoing losses. Previous Q3 data showed BitMine's staking income was indeed growing ($46 million), but it was 92.1%. A $100 million derivatives loss completely offset staking gains, and administrative costs surged from $740,000 to $37.3 million, causing net losses to continue expanding. To raise funds to buy ETH, BitMine continuously issued additional shares, severely diluting the original shareholders' shares. Within just nine months, the number of outstanding shares increased from 232 million to 580 million, and the "per-share value" of existing shareholders is being continuously diluted. The buyback is still ongoing, but with limited strength$MU 为什么暴跌——存储芯片恐慌蔓延到美光！
闪迪财报不及预期引发的存储芯片周期见顶恐慌，正在全面蔓延到整个存储板块——美光作为全球第三大存储芯片厂商，直接躺枪。
第一，闪迪财报后暴跌17%引爆恐慌。 8月6日闪迪财报后暴跌，市场开始担心存储芯片周期见顶。美光作为存储芯片同行，直接躺枪。
第二，HBM产能过剩担忧升温。 美光也在大力扩产HBM，市场担心HBM供过于求。美光此前过度依赖存储涨价逻辑，一旦存储价格松动，盈利预测将大幅下调。
第三，韩国KOSPI暴跌触发杠杆爆仓。 韩国散户借了巨额杠杆追高芯片股，爆仓后被迫抛售所有可流动资产——包括美光股票。 📊 TOKEN UNLOCKS TO WATCH THIS WEEK — AUG 10–16
Several major token unlocks are scheduled this week, with $RAIN standing out by a wide margin.
Estimated value of tokens entering circulation:
• $RAIN — $631.4M
• $PUMP — $19.2M
• $PIEVERSE — $15.6M
• $STBL — $8.7M
• $ARB — $7.4M
• $APT — $6.0M
• $USDG — $4.0M
The size of these unlocks matters because newly released supply can increase potential selling pressure, particularly when liquidity is thin or market sentiment is weak.
$RAIN is the clear outlier, with more than $600M in scheduled unlock value.
Traders should watch unlock timing alongside trading volume, liquidity, and price action rather than assuming every unlock automatically leads to a sell-off.
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $GRVT is stuck for now, but I’m not worried about it.
I don’t think $GRVT is going to copy the wild move we saw with $BICO. It’s rare to get two tokens that strong running at the exact same time. Usually the market picks one to lead.
Liquidity in altcoins right now is thin. Even if price gets pushed higher, there’s not enough real flow to actually distribute the tokens. That’s why things feel heavy.
If $GRVT keeps grinding up, I’ll add margin and ride it. I’m not scared of pullbacks in altcoins. Dips happen, and they’re part of the game.
Right now sentiment is tilted hard. Bulls are outnumbering bears by about 3 to 1. In this kind of setup, the smart whales often don’t just pump price. Sometimes it’s more profitable to short into euphoria and take out overleveraged longs.
Stay patient. Watch the liquidity. Play the rotation, not the hopium.
#SpaceXShortCovering #AIMemorySelloffEases $BICO #财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $SPCX isn’t out of the woods just because the first unlock held. The next supply waves are still coming. 320M shares on Aug 20, roughly 700M in September, and another ~700M in October. The unlock process is split into nine stages and runs into 2027. And shorts are still there. More than 250M shares remain short. If insiders start selling into the new supply, shorts get fresh ammo. If sellers fail to show up again, the squeeze can keep going. That’s why I’m not gettin🐋 A Whale Is Accumulating $SOL — Something Worth Watching
Yesterday, Yujin spotted a whale address accumulating 500,000 $SOL in multiple batches at an average price of around $76, using a TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price) strategy designed to minimize market impact.
That’s a clear sign that some smart money may be building a position for the medium to long term. 👀
And it’s not just $SOL .
📈 $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs have also been recording net inflows, suggesting that market attention may be gradually rotating away from the meme-coin phase and back toward major, fundamentally stronger assets.
However, there’s an important point to understand:
A whale accumulating through TWAP usually indicates a mid-to-long-term strategy, rather than an aggressive short-term bullish bet. If the goal were simply to capture a short-term move, they could deploy the capital much more aggressively.
This accumulation should therefore be viewed as a supporting signal, not a guarantee of an immediate rally.
A $38M purchase may sound huge, but compared with SOL’s roughly $3B daily trading volume, it’s still relatively small and unlikely to change the overall market trend by itself.
For those who don’t have exposure to major coins, gradually building a position could make sense—but don’t go all-in.
Personally, I still believe we could see another black-swan-style pullback after this initial recovery. If that happens, it could potentially provide a much better opportunity for heavier accumulation. 🎯
Stay patient. Watch the flows. Let the market confirm the trend.$SPCX
SpaceX $SPCX 近期算是典型的逼空走势，毕竟8.6号解锁之前看空氛围太重加上股价也连续阴跌了一个月积累了天量空头。这就像是个炸药包只差一根火柴点燃了。
近期连续释放的利好：
1. 看起来非常有设计感未来感的Terafab芯片工厂
2.Argus周四上调至买入、目标价160（不代表会到）
3. Cursor 600亿交易据报道是本周交割
4. 木头姐Cathie Wood加仓1320万美元
都在不断加温逐级点火
因为8.20号就又有一批新的解锁要来，所以其实也不能涨了看涨，虽然这波解锁规模不如8.6号，恐慌程度可能明显下降。但这波我觉得极限145也就差不多了，因为我自己套在160左右，所以我准备先开同样多的空单把浮亏锁定在140附近，等到回踩站稳后平空再等下一波反弹也就回本了。
不过这只是理想的计划，鬼知道这货会不会继续上冲疯狂爆空，还是得边走边看。
而且要注意8月10日周一盘后 $RKLB 也要发布财报了，这是验证太空板块到底是基本面行情还是纯轮动的好时机。SPCX很可能会联动。 It's almost 9:30, and the US stock market is about to open, so I'm getting ready to start betting.
At that point, $SNDK is expected to push downward, or simply drop without turning back.
This is the best time for me to receive the goods.
Currently, the impact Changxin brings to storage can be said to be both large and small.
Because from what I've learned, Changxin's chip prices seem to be higher than Micron's, $MU, SKHYNIX, and others.
Moreover, U.S. policy is also resisting Apple and other major American companies using their products.
It's just Wednesday's CPI now, but I really don't believe we can raise rates this year, and I'm willing to take on the risks I feel this time brings.
I believe this opportunity AI brings to storage can break the habitual mindset that storage is a cyclical industry.
And then there's talk of profit growth slowing down. I really don't get it—what industries can keep their profit growth rates rising? Isn't a slowdown normal? As long as profit growth hasn't started to decline, this price level can still hold steady. (Personal judgment!! ）
#本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, divergences in earnings remain unresolved South Korea launched a 5 trillion won semiconductor special fund, focusing on supporting semiconductor materials, components, and fabless companies, while also providing trade financing and industrial park water and electricity support. The aim is to strengthen the overall strength of the domestic storage industry chain, consolidate Samsung and SK Hynix's production capacity and supply chain advantages in HBM and memory chips, and this policy will have multiple indirect impacts on SanDisk and the US storage sector.
From a medium- to long-term competitive perspective, favorable policies for South Korea's domestic storage industry chain will further amplify Samsung and SK Hynix's capacity expansion capabilities. As direct competitors to SanDisk and Micron, once their production capacity and supply chains receive government support, global supply competition in the storage market will intensify. The market expects that future storage chip supply may further increase, which will somewhat suppress SanDisk's valuation potential and easily lead to valuation suppression.
However, on the short-term market side, this policy is a long-term industry plan. Fund implementation and capacity release require a long cycle, and it will not immediately change the current supply-demand pattern for HBM and memory chips, making it difficult to directly alter SanDisk's short-term stock price trend. US storage stocks mostly follow their own earnings reports, AI customer orders, Micron's performance guidance, and overall risk appetite in the US market.
On the other hand, the global semiconductor policy tightening will also boost market sentiment across the entire storage sector. If the market interprets this as a global consensus on the AI storage industry's prosperity, it could also boost overall sector sentiment and provide positive emotional catalysts for SanDisk.
Overall, this event is more of a medium- to long-term competitive variable, while the short term is more of a stir in sentiment. The real decision on SanDisk's stock price still depends on the company's own performance and the actual implementation of downstream AI demand.
#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, divergences in the earnings report remain to be resolved #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? Guys, the US July CPI will be released Wednesday night. Will the pricing of whether there will be a rate hike in September be rewritten? Let me lay out my technical trump card for you first. In short: the market is not pricing in "whether to raise interest rates" at all; it is pricing in "I'll just lie flat and wait and see." Three pieces of evidence make it easy to understand: In late June, the average daily turnover was 2.33 million shares, but in the past five days, only 1.24 million shares—a shrinkage of nearly half. No one dares to bet before the CPI, a classic case of shrinking volume and lying flat. 2. The trend seems dead. ADX is only 8.7—this indicator below 20 is considered trendless, and 8.7 basically means the ECG is flattened. BTC spent almost a month grinding in the 8% range between 27.3 and 29.6, with several moving averages stuck between 28.4 and 28.5—a classic eve of a market reversal. 3。 Still in the bear for a long time. BTC is now at 28.73, with the annual moving average (the 250-day moving average, the long-term long-term long-bear dividing line) at 37.8, a full 24% lower. This is not a bull market pullback, but a bear market rally. The most painful lesson was from the last CPI event: the June data was very soft, with year-on-year CPI dropping from 4.2% to 3.5%, BTC surging by +3.74% on volume, rising 6.76% in 7 days—and then it all sold out within 10 days. When prices rise, volume shrinks (no one follows); when prices fall, volume increases (real sales). The market voted with its feet and spoke the plain truth: "I don't believe this can change the Fed." So on Wednesday night, don't just focus on the 3.4% or 3.5% figure—focus on volume. Data releasedIs the market cycle entering a new phase? Long-term holders' behavior is changing abruptly
A warning signal is emerging: long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have started selling after about 31 months of accumulation. The number of Bitcoins held by LTH has recently started to decline after climbing to nearly 16 million.
This shift may mark the market entering the second phase—the distribution period.
Support level analysis
$64,700: Immediate bottom.
$62,300-62,500: Stronger high-low zone.
$59,200: Deep Safe Zone.
Pressure level analysis
$65,300: Breakout trigger level.
$66,000: Key resistance.
$67,300: Main supply area.
Impact of LTH distribution
There are usually two interpretations when long-term holders start selling:
Bullish interpretation: LTH gradually takes profits as prices rise, which is a normal market cycle. As long as selling is gradual rather than panic-driven, the market can digest it.
Bearish interpretation: If LTH distributions accelerate and new demand (ETF inflows, new buyers) is insufficient to absorb this supply, prices will face downward pressure.
Notably, in the past 30 days, 85,500 $BTC were transferred into holdings of over one year—indicating that not all long-term holders are selling, with some tokens shifting from short-term holders to long-term holders.
Positive
· Long-term holder distributions are a normal phenomenon in the mid to late stages of a bull market
· New long-term holders are forming (85,500 $BTC transferred into long-term holdings)
· ETF inflows are providing new sources of demand
Bearish
· The start of selling at LTH is an early signal of a cycle shift
· If distribution accelerates, it could trigger a larger pullback
· Short-term holder supply is relatively weak, and the market lacks a "buyer"
$BTC #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
With CPI coming on Wednesday, will the pricing for a September rate hike be rewritten? Let me get straight to the conclusion: the market isn't pricing in whether to raise rates, but pricing in "I'll just lie flat for now." Volume has shrunk by nearly half, ADX is only 8.7, and in the long term, it's still 24% below the annual moving average. Last time, when CPI soft data came out, BTC rose 6.76% and then gave up everything in ten days—the market simply didn't believe it. So on Wednesday night, don't just look at the numbers—focus on volume. Two numbers: if it falls below 27.57, it's a sign that rate hike expectations are rising, and if it rises above 29.60 with volume, it means no rate hike has entered the market. There's all noise in between.🚨 THE $XSPCX TRAP IS SET
SpaceX just ripped back to $133.
+25% in TWO DAYS.
And it happened immediately after 911.5M shares became eligible for sale.
Think about that.
Everyone was positioned for the unlock dump.
34% of the float was already short.
Shorts piled in.
The dump never came.
Instead, they got squeezed.
Price ripped higher → shorts covered → retail started chasing → suddenly everyone thinks the unlock risk is gone.
That’s exactly where I think the real trap begins.
The shares didn’t disappear.
The supply is STILL there.
911.5M shares are unlocked.
And more unlocks are coming.
My roadmap hasn’t changed:
$105 → $125 fake bounce ✅
911M share unlock ✅
Retest of resistance 🔴 NOW
Break below $100 ⏳ NEXT
$77–$85 flush 🎯 FINAL TARGET
I’m NOT chasing $133.
I’m waiting for the panic.
$85 is where I want to start building my position.
I’ve called major tops and bottoms across Gold, Silver, Oil, Bitcoin and SpaceX before.
When I start buying $XSPCX , I’ll post it publicly.
You’ll know.
Turn notifications on.#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn The core change in on-chain finance in 2026 will not be scale shrinkage, but structural differentiation.
DeFi TVL fell from 115B at the start of the year to 115B on 8/7, then to 75.1B on 8/7 (about -35%), driven by deleveraging + declining yields + frequent security incidents.
At the same time, RWA deposits surged from 2.33B to 2.33B and then to 7.44B, a year-on-year increase of over 200%. Ethereum still accounts for 55% of DeFi TVL.
The logic changed: Aave, Morpho, and Kamino began accepting tokenized government bonds as collateral—collateral volatility dropped from 30% to nearly zero.
Funds haven't left the chain; they've just moved from 'speculative closed loops' to 'practical infrastructure.' This is the sustainable part.
#霍尔木兹协议未落地, oil price risks heating up again? Three orders, two empty and one many, running for two days, the results are clear.
Short positions in BTC and ETH are in the right direction.
BTC fell from 65,186 to 64,838, ETH dropped from 1,921 to 1,907. I wasn't wrong—65,000 is the top level, 1,930 is the resistance level, and under panic, it's impossible to break out. Currently, these two trades have floating gains of ETH +149U (+65%) and BTC +33U (+18%), confirming my judgment that the market is "strong on the outside but weak inside."
But honestly, I didn't make much because the opening position wasn't good enough. I entered during the strongest rebound, waited two days before turning positive, and almost got wiped out in between.
GIGGLE's long positions are completely in the wrong direction.
I originally thought it would fall from 288 to 40, down 86%, and that a rebound should be expected. There was support at the 40 level level, so I used 50x leverage to try a violent rally. But the market told me: bottom-fishing is halfway up the mountain, with basements below.
The price fell from 34.58 to 33.96, and the floating loss expanded from 639 USD to 700 USD, a decrease of 855%. The forced parity price had already slipped to 22.35; a further 30% drop would trigger a direct explosion. This order had already eaten up all the profits from BTC and ETH, and even lost over 500 USD.
The current situation is very awkward:
The market is right, but the counterfeit is wrong; Those with the right direction make small profits, those with the wrong direction lose big.
Short selling with 100x leverage has extremely low margin for error, and going long with 50x leverage is a ripe for knockoffs. My problem isn't seeing the direction clearly, but using high leverage to turn correct judgments into low returns and wrong judgments into fatal flaws.
What happens next?
I will continue to hold short positions in BTC and ETH. As long as it doesn't break 65,500 or 1,930, I will accept this direction.
GIGGLE…… To be honest, I'm still conflicted. Stop-loss means a real loss of 700U; without stop-loss, it could crash even worse. If the 33 level breaks again, I won't fantasize about a rebound anymore.
Finally, a heartfelt thought:
The hardest part of contract trading isn't judging price fluctuations; it's that even if you make the right judgment, you won't make money; if you make the wrong judgment, you'll lose everything.
Posting it isn't about showing off or crying bitterly; it's just a lesson for yourself and a reminder to those who see it—leverage is your friend, and also the first person to betray you $BTC $ETH
---
Personal review does not constitute any trading advice. The market carries risks; survival is what matters most.现在的加密市场，与其说缺乏资金，不如说资金变得更加挑剔。 机构资金仍然首先集中在 BTC 和 ETH。 最新数据显示，美国现货 BTC 与 ETH ETF 最近一周合计净流入约 11亿美元，创下4月以来较强的周度流入表现。与此同时，BTC重新回到 $65K附近，市场正在等待新的宏观催化剂。 但真正值得关注的，不是资金有没有进场。 而是： 资金什么时候开始沿着风险曲线向下扩散？ 市场轮动可能出现这样的路径： 👑 $BTC → 市场流动性核心 🏛️ $ETH → 风险偏好确认 ⚡ $SOL → 高β资金开始活跃 🟡 $BNB → 生态资金强弱指标 💳 $XRP → 支付与金融叙事 🔗 $LINK → 区块链基础设施 💰 $AAVE / $ONDO → DeFi + RWA 🤖 $TAO / $WLD → AI 叙事重新升温 🚀 $SUI / $HYPE → 更高风险偏好的资金 --- 🔥 现在真正的问题：BTC 如果不再持续上涨，会发生什么？ 如果 BTC 在 $64K–$66K 区间进入横盘，而 ETH 和 SOL 开始逐渐跑赢 BTC，这可能比 BTC 单独上涨更加值After the financial reports of MU and SNDK, they plunged—don't rush to say the AI memory speculation is over.
I lean more toward this as a repricing after expectations are overdrawn. Demand hasn't disappeared, but the market is no longer satisfied with "good performance"—it's demanding companies continue to significantly exceed expectations.
TG material compared storage chains within AI trading, and the market is re-examining the gap between earnings, guidance, and valuations.
In terms of market performance, $XMU -2.23%, latest 861.81; $XSNDK -1.74%, latest 1198.88; $XSKHY -2.98%, latest 135.01.
Market Focus:
$XMU: Near 810, look for support; 750 is defense; 920 is a short-term resistance; hold steady before looking for 970.
$XSNDK: Near 1100, look for support; 1050 is defensive; 1300 is a short-term resistance; hold steady before looking for 1350.
Trading tendency: observe first, wait for price confirmation. The narrative is clear, but the target hasn't caught up yet.
My judgment: the AI memory market isn't over yet, but the first phase of easy money is already over. After that, it's only about fulfillment ability; if orders, demand, and profit margins can't keep up, the market will cut valuations.
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $BTC CME hedge funds have seen a historic increase — institutions have made a 180-degree turn in attitude
The most important market signal
On August 10, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) saw a rare reversal in its hedge fund holdings—shifting from long-standing net short to net long. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that this shift marks a bet by professional traders on $BTC's upside potential, fundamentally changing the previously grounded market landscape.
Support level analysis
$64,200-64,500: The preferred buy zone. If the price pulls back to this point and shows evidence that buyers hold support, this area will be attractive.
$63,900: A more conservative entry level. If BTC temporarily loses below 64,700 and then quickly recovers, this level is especially worth watching.
$61,000: Additional support level.
Pressure level analysis
$65,300: Breakout trigger level. Ideally, the price breaks through this level as trading volume increases, followed by a successful retest.
$67,300: Major supply zone. A breakout would open space to $68,500.
In-depth analysis of institutional trends
Why are CME hedge funds increasing at this time? The deeper reason lies in the failure of traditional basis trading strategies. For a long time, leveraged funds executed basis trades by buying Bitcoin spot or ETFs and selling futures contracts. However, currently, the annualized three-month basis for Bitcoin futures is only about 3%, lower than the 3.8% yield on two-year US Treasuries. Against the backdrop of increased financing, margin, and execution risks, the motivation to maintain short positions has been greatly weakened.
As basis traders closed out short positions, CME leveraged funds' long positions have now surpassed short positions, establishing an overall net long position.
Positive
· The bullish turn in CME hedge funds is a bullish signal not seen in years
· A shift in attitude at the institutional level may attract more follower capital
· Narrowing the basis means a healthier market structure
Bearish
· Currently, long positions have reached about $23.4 billion, accounting for as much as 57.6%
· Leverage is highly concentrated on the bull side, and historically, this extreme imbalance has often been accompanied by intense liquidation risks
· A bullish turn on CME may be a "well-known" signal, with risks of "buying expectations and selling facts." $BTC #本周三CPI公布: Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? Microsoft is negotiating with TSMC for a capacity of 300,000 wafers and plans to release the MAIA 300 in September, highlighting a restructuring of tech giants' capital flows. However, in the short term, high U.S. Treasury yields are limiting valuation expansion for risk assets.
The current order of market drivers is: Federal Reserve interest rate policy suppressing capital valuation in tech stocks, supply chain revaluation due to TSMC's 300,000 wafer capacity allocation, and a resonant resonance of risk appetite between crypto assets and the US tech sector.
When the US dollar index remains strong and benchmark interest rates remain high, tech giants increase investment in self-developed chips, locking in long-term capital expenditures and squeezing short-term cash flow expectations for US tech stocks, while gold and non-US currencies simultaneously face pressure on capital inflows.
As crypto assets serve as a barometer of high-beta liquidity, if the U.S. tech sector undergoes valuation adjustments due to hardware supply chain restructuring, decentralized computing power concepts and mainstream tokens will face temporary selling pressure.
The scenario for an upward scenario is that MAIA 300 will be delivered as scheduled in September and US Treasury yields will fall. When US Treasury yields fall and trigger a weaker dollar, funds flow from safe-haven gold into tech stocks and the crypto market. The incremental landing of 300,000 wafer orders will drive the US tech sector to break through resistance levels, and the crypto market will naturally start a liquidity premium recovery.
The downside scenario triggers TSMC's advanced process capacity bottlenecks and delivery restrictions, or the Federal Reserve's high interest rates leading to increased risk aversion. Funds are accelerating inflows into gold and US dollar deposits, and a pullback in US tech stocks will drag crypto assets to new lows. The 300,000 wafers squeezing out other hardware capacity will also amplify short-term supply chain liquidity tightness.
The condition for judgment failure is that if the linkage between crypto assets and the US tech sector decouples, or if gold and the US dollar rise together, it indicates that macro funds are structurally avoiding risk assets, and the original liquidity transmission logic needs to be repriced.
In the next 7 days, key attention should be paid to US Treasury yield trends, US dollar index volatility, and the net capital flow brought by TSMC's capacity allocation to the US tech sector.
#霍尔木兹协议未落地, oil price risks heating up again? #CLARITY表决推迟至9月. Regulatory window shifts #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?$BICO has topped the OKEx gainers list three times
$BICO at $0.044, do you dare to bottom-fish?
$BICO fell from its ATH of $21 to 0.011, a 99.9% drop. Short sellers made a killing.
At first glance: from hell to heaven, then back to earth
At the end of July, it hit a historical low of 0.011. Aster DEX and AlphaX launched perpetual contracts, combined with short liquidations, causing a surge of over 300% within a week, once reaching 0.08-0.09. On August 10, it retraced 30%-40% in a single day with high volume selling pressure, a typical profit-taking after listing enthusiasm.
Around 0.04 is the Fib 61.8% retracement level, with increased volume, bulls and bears are fiercely battling.
First point: This rise is not driven by fundamentals, but by shorts being squeezed to death.
$BICO fell from its ATH of $21 to 0.011, a 99.9% drop. Short sellers made a killing. Then what? Once perpetual contracts launched, short positions didn’t have time to escape and were violently liquidated.
It surged over 300% within a week, with trading volume reaching several times the market cap. No major positive news, purely a brutal liquidation in the derivatives market.
Second point: Fundamentals are clean but fragile.
Biconomy is a multi-chain account abstraction infrastructure, invested by Coinbase Ventures and Binance Launchpad. Total supply is about 1 billion, circulation nearly full, no large unlocking pressure, which is considered clean among altcoins.
But it dropped from $21 to 0.011, a 99.9% fall.
Current market cap is only tens of millions of dollars.
Protocol revenue? Still too early to tell.
Top 100 wallets hold by 20% up or down.
Third point: Technically, it’s at a "bull-bear do-or-die" point.
Daily ATR (Average True Range) is extremely high, derivatives trading far exceeds spot. Each candlestick has long upper and lower shadows, typical of high volatility battles.
At the 0.044 level, neither bulls nor bears have a way out. Upwards, breaking 0.05 could retest 0.08; downwards, breaking 0.038 could fall below 0.03 #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $SKHYNIX Why the Crash—Panic Erupts Over Storage Chip 'Cycle Peak'!
SK Hynix is the leader in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), a key component of AI chips. The panic over the storage cycle peaking triggered by the sharp drop after SanDisk's financial report is now spreading across the entire memory chip sector.
First, SanDisk's Q1 guidance fell short of expectations, triggering panic. After SanDisk's August 6 earnings report, it plunged 17%, and the market began to worry that the memory chip cycle was peaking. SK Hynix, as the HBM leader, was directly caught in the crossfire.
Second, concerns over HBM overcapacity are rising. Major storage manufacturers are frantically expanding HBM production, and the market is beginning to worry about HBM oversupply. SK Hynix previously relied too heavily on HBM price increase logic; once HBM prices loosen, profit forecasts will be sharply lowered.
Third, the KOSPI plunge triggered a chain reaction. The KOSPI index plunged earlier and triggered circuit breakers. Korean retail investors leveraged heavily to chase chip stocks, and after liquidation, were forced to sell all liquid assets—including SK Hynix shares. Ethereum's situation is similar to what was previously described, with a slightly stronger trend than Bitcoin. However, if Bitcoin continues to decline, it will struggle to remain completely unaffected, and it is unlikely to keep rising against the trend.
So I also suggest you take long positions in batches at the 1,850 and 1,780 levels. Stop loss at 1,700, and take profit near 1,950, then take profits in batches.
In other words, at this position, it's generally not recommended to make any moves. What you should do is wait patiently, wait until it actually pulls back to your set area, and only enter to place orders when the time is right. Don't act too earlyApple / CXMT is the new Monday memory test.
Around 7:17am CT, $MU was about $864 pre-market, -1.5%, with $SNDK about $1,194, -1.5%, and $WDC about $429, -1.3%, while $QQQ was about $723, +0.01%, and $SOXX about $545, +0.3%.
Reuters, following the Wall Street Journal, reported Apple has tested memory chips from China's CXMT for iPhones and MacBooks. The New York Times reported the AI memory shortage has pushed the fight into Washington and many U.S. officials appear unsympathetic to Apple's effort to buy Chinese chips.
Our view: the tape is pricing a supplier-diversification risk headline first, but the near-term $MU reset still looks limited unless Apple wins approval for broader use or CXMT adds enough qualified supply to change FY27 pricing discipline. If the memory lane keeps lagging after the open, the market is likely testing that second step instead of just reacting to the headline.
source: Reuters / WSJ / New York Times#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $BTC Don't just focus on candlesticks tonight: Nvidia and US stock tokens are providing another lead to risk appetite
If I trade BTC tonight, I'll be driving US stocks at the same time.
The reason is simple: BTC is truly waiting for the August 12 CPI, while US stocks are trading the same macro expectations ahead of time. Today, US stock futures were generally positive in pre-market trading, with the market closely watching the progress of US-Iran negotiations; The US dollar is near a two-month low.
On the other hand, $NVIDIA's stock price has risen about 11.6% over the past week, and today it briefly rose about 0.5% before the market opened.
Why does this make sense for BTC trading?
Because NVDA, Nasdaq, and BTC are inherently very sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite. When AI tech stocks remain strong, the dollar is weak, and interest rate pressures ease, the market is willing to take risks, and the external environment for BTC breakouts is usually more comfortable.
So tonight, I'll do a simple cross-check:
BTC breaking above 65,300+ US risk appetite remains strong + US dollar shows no significant rebound, increasing the credibility of a breakout.
Conversely, if BTC surges to 65,300 but US stocks suddenly weaken and US dollar and Treasury yields rise simultaneously, I wouldn't chase in just because of a single BTC bullish candlestick.
This is also why US stock tokens are worth adding to the crypto trading watchlist. $NVDA, $MSTR, $COIN types can not only be traded but also serve as "thermometers" for risk appetite.
However, don't mechanically interpret it as "NVDA up = BTC up." The relevant market can only provide environmental confirmation; ultimately, BTC depends on its trading volume, open interest, and price structure.
**Risk boundaries: What really needs to be controlled tonight is position position before the event. **Before the CPI release, the market is likely to repeatedly trade expectations. Rather than predicting a single data, set conditions at 65,300 and 64,500: break out and then process the breakout; if it falls below it, process the breakout. Trading isn't about betting on the answer in advance, but about managing risk after the market gives you the answer.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard 存储三家集体跳水，抄底的底裤都抄没了！！！
闪迪从高点砸下来后，中间那几天的横盘根本就不是吸筹，就是主力慢悠悠派货的下跌中继。反弹幅度连跌幅的三分之一都没摸到，1250往上全是等待解套的多单，就这点量能，别说突破，连守住关键支撑都做不到，盘面的一根阴线直接砸穿1200关口，下跌空间彻底打开。$SNDK
美光，海力士也是跟着闪迪一路跳水，之前炒上天的AI增量，涨价周期，也只不过是市场提前将预期炒作完毕，所谓的存储长牛，就是吸引散户接盘的老故事了。
盘面的拉升就是市场超跌情绪的反弹与非农数据偏弱带来的短暂利好，非农数据公布后许多机构资金早已提前兑现离场。$SKHYNIX
闪迪链上资金持续大额流出，晚间美股开盘后豆哥依旧
看空
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ On the day the load-bearing wall was removed, the entire building didn't groan as expected; instead, on the seventh trading day, it sealed all the cracks with a bullish candle—this was the price structure after SpaceX's lock-up period was lifted. The market was like a nervous general contractor, staring intently at the moment the scaffolding was removed, only to find that the concrete strength was two more grades higher than what was indicated on the drawings.
The white paper is a rendering, and the lock-in period is a key node on the construction schedule. Before August 6, all the bears were crouching outside the construction site fence, betting that the building would collapse under its own weight. Over 250 million short positions were pressed on the tradable list, equivalent to pouring 16% more load-bearing layers on top of the standard floor. But real structural engineers only care about one thing: whether the load-bearing walls are being built according to the drawings. The financial report outside Tesla is the first structural acceptance record—revenue growth is based on windward rebar mesh, and losses narrowing is due to the concrete grade in the foundation slab. Each line of numbers answers one question: Is the building's vertical stress system valid?
The tide of AI capital spending keeps rising, like a tower crane that never tops out, constantly hoisting new heavy steel components to the top floor. Cash burning is the electricity bill on the construction site; every night the lights go on means construction costs are snowballing. Valuation concerns have never been about already built floors, but about the cantilevered beam on the blueprints that hasn't been poured yet—can it withstand the load for the next three quarters? Short coverage means workers use paint buckets to repair dents pressed by support rods after removing the scaffolding. This isn't structural change, just surface treatment.
Options trading volume surged, like a sudden opening of a vector vent in a wind tunnel experiment. Every abnormal fluctuation amplified the structure's response spectrum, allowing the building to show its true damping ratio in wind vibrations. The question was: was that round of rebound a sign of passing the bearing capacity test, or simply because the wind happened to blow from the side favorable to lateral force? The bears inside the market were like the withdrawing mechanical team; their closing orders marked dense orange lines on the market, but those were only safety event records in the construction log, not acceptance certificates.
When temporary supports for a building are no longer needed, they grow upward; When all speculative weights are removed from the cantilever end, the deflection of the floor slab disappears completely. But remember, in every accident in architectural history, the most dangerous moment is always—all warning signals are interpreted as good news at dusk. Scaffolding has just been laid down, dust on the site has not yet settled, and the real load test is still on the drawings at the next level. This rebound is like a smooth fireproof coating covering exposed steel bars.
But structural engineers know clearly: fireproof coatings will never increase a building's seismic resistance by even a single degree #SpaceXShortCovering Microsoft plans to launch the MAIA 300 in September and increase chip usage, while negotiating foundry capacity with TSMC to push the scale of self-developed hardware to the forefront.
The market's allocation of funds for the computing power supply chain is beginning to diverge, with some positions redistributed from single chip suppliers to downstream self-developed and foundry segments.
Inflationary pressures from hardware costs have prompted large tech companies to accelerate the ramp-up of domestic chip production, reshaping overall market risk appetite.
The increase in capital expenditure is directly linked to the lock-in of foundry capacity; whether upstream capacity can be released on schedule determines the speed at which funds reprice.
If capacity negotiations proceed smoothly and new chips are delivered on schedule, overall risk appetite in the technology sector will be further boosted, while delivery delays will quickly weaken this momentum.
If advanced capacity allocation is restricted and output growth falls short of expectations, positions previously bought in concentrated positions may face rapid withdrawals, triggering short-term drawdowns.
If the cost of migrating self-developed ecosystems exceeds market expectations, the overall narrative of large cloud providers increasing computing power self-sufficiency will be reevaluated.
The most noteworthy variable to watch over the next seven days is further disclosure of capacity negotiation details and supply chain confirmation of the September production schedule.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a September rate hike rewrite? #Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大重大消息已出！利好？
北京时间明晚20:30非农落地，美股要迎来关键选择
本周五晚间20:30，7月非农就业报告即将出炉，这是美联储7月议息会议之后，最重要的一份就业数据，会直接改写9月利率预期，美股、美债、加密全部资产都会被牵动。
此前ADP小非农数据明显不及预期，已经提前给市场打了预防针，市场在博弈就业逐步降温。
三种数据情景对应的美股走向
情景一：非农大幅强于预期，薪资同步走高
就业火热，会推迟降息预期，美债收益率上行。高估值AI科技、存储板块承压最重，MU、SNDK这类成长标的容易遭遇抛压；道指价值蓝筹相对抗跌，整体指数会出现分化行情。
情景二：非农显著走弱，失业率抬升
市场会强化降息预期，美债收益率下行，利好科技成长股。存储、AI硬件有机会迎来修复反弹。但也要警惕一种风险：数据太差，会引发市场对经济衰退的担忧，造成短期普跌。
情景三：数据和预期基本吻合
就业温和降温，不冷不热。美股延续当前撕裂格局，道指偏强，纳指高位震荡，行情回归财报逻辑，板块内部继续轮动。
抛开非农，美股本身接下来的盘面判断
1、存储板块现在处于财报证伪后的剧烈震荡阶段。SNDK走出深V反转，但财报带来的预期下调问题没有彻底消失。后市重点盯MU关键支撑能不能守住，守住代表板块分化修复；一旦有效跌破，存储这一轮行情会进入中期估值消化，不要把超跌反弹直接当成新一轮主升浪。
2、市场结构性分化会持续上演。业绩指引超预期的标的会继续享受溢价；就算利润很高，但股东回报、未来指引保守的公司，会持续被资金抛弃。普涨行情已经结束，选股难度变大。
3、风险点依旧不能忽视，$SPCX巨额解禁压力还在，会时不时扰动盘面，放大盘中插针波动。
重点关注标的：
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
动能消退、资金离场品种：
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
等待信号确认观察池：
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
资金偏好的强势品种：
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
当下市场逻辑梳理：
$BTC — 加密市场流动性中枢，决定整体盘面的冷热程度
$ETH — 机构资金持续布局，依靠震荡慢慢沉淀筹码
$SOL — Layer1赛道的弹性担当，行情启动时上涨空间可观
$TAO & $WLD — AI主线热度持续，反复得到资金的青睐
$HYPE — 市场投机情绪标尺，用来判断当下风险偏好高低
$DOGE & $ZEC — 散户情绪窗口，直观反映短线投机热度On August 8, the block height 961632, $BTC BIP-110 officially entered the mandatory signaling phase. Nodes supporting it began to reject blocks that did not take a stance, essentially breaking with themselves. So what happened? In the previous difficulty cycle, out of 2016 blocks, only 51 signals supported it, accounting for 2.53%, with an activation threshold of 55%, a huge gap.
What's even more awkward is the situation of forked chains. Data from August 9 shows that after mining two blocks, the chain got stuck in 961633 for a full 17 hours without activity, while the Bitcoin mainnet had already reached 961744, leaving it 111 blocks behind. In the new cycle, mainchain miners' signal support rate dropped to zero, and even the previously only face-saving Ocean pool, Simple Mining, publicly rejected it, bluntly stating: hashrate is a real vote; this proposal is not worth following.
Saylor's words were even more negative: 99.85% of the hash rate remained in Bitcoin, BIP-110 could be freely forked, and the network could freely not follow along. Bitcoin would operate as usual, everything according to design.
To put it bluntly, this controversy was a protest without an audience from start to finish. Some agree with the proposal to ban inscriptions and clean up junk data, but Bitcoin's rules are simple: if you want to change consensus, you must first get past miners. Miners' collective silence is the strongest veto vote.
Fork chains don't have re-release protection, so don't be reckless in selling fork coins these days—be careful not to get real BTC on the mainnet. Stay steady, nothing will happen.$BTC and $ETH are both trading sideways, so why is ETH worth keeping a close eye on? $1900 may be the key to this round of capital rotation
ETH was trading around $1,918 today, with a change of only about 0.06%, showing almost no market movement.
But I actually think ETH is worth focusing on right now.
The reason is not that "ETH will definitely rise," but rather that some capital is undergoing changes.
From August 3 to 7, ETH ETF saw a net inflow of about $244 million, the highest since April this year; during the same period, BTC ETFs saw inflows of about $844 million. This indicates that institutional funds are still mainly allocating BTC, but ETH has not been completely abandoned.
What ETH really needs to solve now is price confirmation.
Currently, the first target is $1,900. As long as this level holds, ETH still has a foundation for an upward test; If BTC breaks through 65,300 and ETH starts to see increased trading volume, the market may gradually shift from "BTC single-core" to BTC+ETH.
Here's another useful trading idea: don't just look at ETH/USDT—add ETH/BTC.
If BTC rises and ETH rises, but ETH/BTC continues to fall, essentially BTC is stronger; Only when ETH/BTC starts to strengthen continuously does it truly resemble real capital rotation.
Today, BTC's funding rate is about 0.0077%, ETH's about 0.0057%, and neither has experienced particularly extreme leverage crowding. So what's next, rather than "guessing the rise or fall," it's more important to observe who appears first: price breakout + increased spot trading + relative strength strengthening.
Risk warning: The August 12 CPI is right ahead. Research shows that changes in macro inflation expectations provide certain predictive information for the realization and volatility of altcoins like ETH and SOL. So the biggest taboo now is not misreading ETH, but maxing out leverage just because "1900 is very strong" before major data.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard KAITO is experiencing a "deleveraging" bullish retreat—even though funding rates have dropped to extreme negative levels, it still fails to hold onto the bulls. KAITO's current hourly funding rate has dropped to about -0.334%, which staticly represents an annualized short selling cost of about 2923%—meaning shorts must pay about 0.8% of their position cost to long positions daily, but even so, bulls are accelerating their exit. In the past 24 hours, the value of KAITO's open interest fell from $16.83 million to $8.056 million, a decrease of 52.1%. The price fell only about 4.3%, far less than the contraction in open positions, indicating that what is happening is not a new influx of short sellers, but active exit and deleveraging by bulls. Biggest Victim: 0x2be Whale Exit After Losing $800,000 Previously, the average KAITO position at this address was about $1.0559. Since this morning, it has been consistently long, and by evening had sold 2.086 million KAITO and cleared out positions. The weighted closing price was about $0.6695, with a closing volume of about $1.396 million, resulting in a cumulative loss of about $806,000. Cross-Platform Comparison: Hyperliquid's Negative Fee Rate Is More Extreme After converting all platform fees to an 8-hour standard, Binance's current fee rate is about -1.5347%, Hyperliquid's is about -2.6293%. The latter's negative rate is 1.0946 percentage points higher than Binance's, roughly 1.71 times higher. Calculated at $10,000 short positions, every 8 hours$BTC Stuck at $65,000 without moving—the real danger may not be a drop, but rather "leverage is being built up first."
The most obvious feature of BTC today was neither rising nor falling, but rather moving sideways. Prices mainly fluctuated between $64,700 and $65,300, with BTC at around $65,064, and the total market turnover in 24 hours was about $42.96 billion; Meanwhile, the total open interest of crypto derivatives actually increased by about 1.05%, reaching $114 billion.
This set of data is more interesting than simply looking at candlesticks: the price hasn't moved out, but the position size is increasing.
BTC's OI-weighted funding rate is currently about 0.0077%, still positive, indicating bulls are willing to pay a certain cost for their positions. The problem is, if BTC continues to hover near 65,000 while OI keeps increasing, a structure of "smaller price fluctuations and more leveraged positions" will gradually form.
I wouldn't rush to chase this kind of market. What bulls really need is to hold after breaking through 65,300, with trading volume increasing simultaneously; If it only breaks through 65,300 intraday and then quickly returns to the range, then the probability of a false breakout will increase. First, look at the 64,700–64,500 range. If it falls, today's sideways pattern will be broken.
A bigger variable actually comes from the US CPI on August 12. Currently, the market expects July inflation to drop from 3.5% in June to 3.4%. This means BTC is likely to continue trading "inflation expectations" over the next two days, rather than simply trading crypto news.
My observation criteria: Holding above 65,300 = bulls further confirm; 64,500 broken = short-term weakening again; Price sideways but OI continues to rise rapidly = actively reducing leverage.
Risk warning: Sideways trading does not equal safety. Today, about $93 million has been liquidated across the market, with about $17 million in BTC. What really needs to be guarded against is overcrowded positions before CPI, with the last K-line clearing both sides at once.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? $XRP 为什么跌——Clarity法案推迟是最大元凶！
Clarity法案8月5日参议院休会前未能投票，被推迟到秋季。 XRP是整个加密市场中对Clarity法案结果“曝险程度最高”的代币——通不过，XRP可能跌到0.75-0.80；通过了，可能暴力拉盘。
法案推迟意味着什么？
· 短期利好落空：市场原本预期8月投票，现在要等秋季
· 不确定性延长：机构资金还在观望，不敢大举进场
· 获利盘兑现：从0.97反弹到1.10涨了13%，法案推迟后获利盘集中兑现
但XRP的基本面没坏：SEC诉讼基本尘埃落定、XRPL的RWA转账持续增长、欧洲MiCA许可证已获批。跌是因为预期落空，不是基本面崩了。 $DOGE 做空策略（当前胜率最高）：反弹到0.0705-0.071且成交量萎缩、出现长上影，止损0.072上方，目标先看0.069，跌破看0.066-0.067。杠杆2-3倍，仓位2%以内。核心逻辑：多头拥挤78.7%+布林带极窄变盘+大盘回暖不跟涨。
做多策略（刀尖舔血）：等两个信号：①价格在0.066-0.067区间放量企稳；②马斯克突然发推喊单。入场0.066-0.067，止损0.064下方，目标0.070-0.071。杠杆1-2倍，仓位1%以内。
最稳策略（绝对观望）：一个成本0.0002的老鲸鱼、一个78.7%多头拥挤的合约市场、一个没有财库没有收入没有销毁的币——你凭什么觉得现在是底？等0.071确认突破或0.066确认跌破再动手！ 📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.08.10 (Monday)
📌 Core judgment
The interest rate benefits from weak nonfarm payrolls remain, but crude oil has rebounded above $84. Wednesday's CPI will determine whether the market continues to trade "cooling inflation" or renews concerns over stagflation.
In storage, the biggest industry news today is not stock prices, but Apple reportedly testing Changxin DRAM. If formal orders are ultimately secured, Changxin will further upgrade from a domestic substitution concept to a global consumer electronics supplier.
🔥 Today's highlights
(1) Apple's test of Changxin has greater long-term significance than MSCI inclusion
According to reports cited in the original briefing, Apple is testing Changxin memory for products such as iPhone and MacBook, with initial discussions mainly involving the Chinese market. However, it is still in the testing and early contact stages, and both parties have not yet officially confirmed it.
This matter has two layers of significance:
In the short term, global DRAM remains in short supply, and Apple needs to find a fourth supplier;
If it passes Apple's validation in the long term, Changxin will truly enter the global frontline supply chain, putting pressure on the monopoly premiums of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
At this stage, you can't chase prices based solely on news; the real revaluation points are formal procurement, procurement scale, and applicable markets.
(2) Micron provided new clues for the storage industry tonight
Micron attended the KeyBanc Technology Forum tonight, focusing on HBM orders, general DRAM shortages, long-term customer agreements, and how management views Changxin and future expansion.
Micron covers HBM, DRAM, NAND, and data center products, making its business structure more balanced than pure NAND companies. If management continues to confirm tight supply and demand and the stock price does not see a positive decline, Micron remains the top storage target to watch for now.
(3) SanDisk is not in a hurry to bottom-fish for now
SanDisk's data center business is very strong, but after the earnings report, it continued to decline, indicating the market is digesting excessive growth and price increase expectations.
The August 13 Investor Day will focus on verifying:
How much longer can NAND prices hold?
Whether the growth in enterprise-grade SSDs also comes from sales;
HBF commercialization timeline;
Future capital expenditures and new supply.
Until new answers to these questions are found, continuous declines do not mean they are already cheap.
(4) Storage cycle remains "shortage first, capacity expansion later"
2026–2027: AI demand will dominate, while HBM, DRAM, and enterprise SSD supply will remain tight.
2028–2030: New capacities from Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changxin will gradually be released, increasing supply pressure.
Therefore, we can continue to be optimistic about the current fundamentals, but we cannot infinitely extrapolate this year's high profit margins.
(5) A brief look at BTC and HYPE
BTC has reached around $65,000; only by consistently holding between $65,000 and $65,500 can a valid breakout be considered complete.
ETH and HYPE remain liquidity amplifiers: when CPI cools, elasticity may be higher than BTC's, but when data is hot, drawdowns are larger, so higher leverage is not suitable before events.
🥇 Macro and commodities
Gold remains high, but last week's gains were already significant, so it's not advisable to chase higher prices before Wednesday's CPI. Silver is around $63.15; don't forcibly mark gains or losses when the direction is unclear.
Brent crude is around $84.3, already close to the zone where inflation risks are heating up again; breaking above $85–$90 would put pressure on tech stocks, storage stocks, and BTC.
📅 Key events this week
Tonight: Micron KeyBanc Technology Forum
August 12, 20:30: U.S. CPI
August 13, 20:30: U.S. PPI
August 13, 21:00: SanDisk Investor Day
August 14: Applied Materials financial report, U.S. retail sales
💡 My view
**The most noteworthy thing to track today is whether Apple truly adopts Changxin, rather than the short-term funding brought by MSCI's inclusion. **Short-term storage is still in short supply, and Micron's business structure is more robust; But Wednesday's CPI and oil prices will determine how high the valuation of the entire sector can be.Will there be another rate hike in September? Wednesday's CPI may directly change the answer
The most important data data for the market this week, I think, is the US July CPI released on Wednesday.
The market is actually quite conflicted: the previous nonfarm payroll unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, employment has cooled significantly, and expectations for a rate hike in September have also declined. But inflation hasn't been fully resolved yet, so there are significant divisions within the Fed.
Currently, the market expects the July CPI year-on-year to be around 3.4%.
So this data is interesting: if CPI continues to cool, there will be fewer reasons for a rate hike in September, which will be more comfortable for gold and US stocks; But if it exceeds expectations again, the market's recent expectations for a policy shift may soon have to be repriced again.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? $BTC $SNDK $OKB August 10 | BTC Data Evening Report
BTC real-time quotes
As of press time, BTC is trading near $64,872, with an intraday high of about $65,348 and a low of about $64,788, remaining basically flat over 24 hours. The price remains in a fluctuating range near $65,000.
ETF funds
On August 7, the most recent complete U.S. trading day, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a total net inflow of about $101.7 million, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of net inflows.
From August 3 to 7, cumulative net inflows were about $854 million. Funds continue to flow in, but the single-day scale is significantly lower than the $244.4 million on August 5, indicating a slowdown in marginal growth.
BTC exchange
The total BTC balance across all exchanges is about 2.7141 million BTC, with the latest statistics window showing a net inflow of about 5,847 BTC. The rise in balance and continuous ETF inflows have diverged, indicating that some BTC has returned to exchanges and short-term tradable supply has increased.
Stablecoin liquidity
The total stablecoin size is about $307.5 billion, down about $2.79 billion (-0.9%) over the past 7 days, about 1% over the past 30 days, with a single-day change of about -0.03%.
Total supply remains contracted, and on-chain dollar expansion to match continuous ETF inflows has yet to occur. Current capital improvement is mainly concentrated on the ETF side; if stablecoin supply continues to decline, BTC's upside will remain constrained by spot liquidity.
Important news today
U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, below market expectations and temporarily dampening expectations for further Fed tightening; The U.S. CPI to be released this Wednesday will be the next key verification data. If inflation falls short of expectations, improved financial conditions would benefit BTC; If inflation heats up again, interest rate pressures could offset the positive effects from employment data.
The vote on the US CLARITY Act has been postponed until after the summer recess, shifting regulatory catalysts from short-term events to medium-term variables. In the short term, the implementation of the bill can no longer be treated as a certainty or positive factor.
Next, let's focus on the main focus
The current signal is: ETFs are continuously flowing in, but BTC balances on exchanges are rising, and the total supply of stablecoins continues to shrink, so liquidity has not fully resonated.
If CPI falls short of expectations, stablecoin supply stops falling and rebounds, and BTC net inflows on exchanges turn into sustained net outflows, it indicates that ETF funds are beginning to flow into the spot market; If stablecoins continue to shrink and exchange balances keep rising, ETF inflows may mainly be absorbed by selling pressure, and the current rebound is likely to be sustained with limited sustainability.
$BTC #星球日报 Oil prices fell to around $74
But the Strait of Hormuz issue is not truly over yet
Recently, oil prices have cooled significantly, with WTI returning to around $74. One important reason is the progress of temporary navigation arrangements between Iran and Oman for the Strait of Hormuz.
But I think it's too early to say the crisis is over.
Currently, the discussions are about temporary routes and navigation arrangements, which does not mean the Strait of Hormuz has fully returned to normal, nor does it mean the issues between Iran and the United States have been resolved.
So now crude oil tends to show this trend: negotiations make progress and then fall, and suddenly new conflicts flare up immediately.
Oil prices around $74 have already priced in many optimistic expectations. As long as the agreement is not truly implemented, geopolitical risk premiums could return at any time.
$CL $XAU $BICO #霍尔木兹协议未落地, oil price risks are heating up again? $SNDK SanDisk has a big event on August 13, and after the earnings report, the real focus is here
Recently, people have been asking me about $SNDK, and I think August 13th is a good time to remember it.
SanDisk has confirmed that the 2026 Investor Day will be held on that day, with the CEO, CFO, and other management members all present, focusing on the company's current business status and future development direction.
Why do I think this event is more important than a regular event?
Because the financial report digital market has been reviewed, what everyone really wants to know now is how long the demand for NAND and enterprise-level storage driven by AI can last, whether future profit margins can be maintained, and how the company will reap the benefits of the AI data center expansion going forward.
$SNDK has already risen a lot earlier, so the market now wants not just "good performance," but whether the company can deliver a bigger long-term story.
What management says on August 13, I think it will directly affect how the market values $SNDK in the next phase.
#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, divergences in the earnings report remain to be resolved What's Holding Back the Crypto Market's Rally?
Global financial markets are entering a pivotal week as investors focus on the upcoming U.S. CPI report. After softer-than-expected labor data, Wall Street reached fresh highs on expectations that the Federal Reserve could become less restrictive. However, a stronger-than-expected inflation reading could quickly reverse the current risk-on sentiment.
For crypto, institutional demand continues to provide a solid foundation. Spot $BTC and $ETH ETFs attracted roughly $1.1 billion in net inflows over the past week, helping Bitcoin remain near $65,000. The steady inflows suggest long-term investors are still accumulating despite short-term volatility.
Even so, several major headwinds continue to limit upside.
First, inflation risks remain elevated as oil prices stay supported by geopolitical tensions involving the U.S., Iran, and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy costs could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, reducing liquidity for risk assets.
Second, profit-taking has intensified after the recent rally. While capital continues flowing into $BTC and $ETH, most altcoins are still struggling to attract institutional demand, leaving the advance uneven.
Third, investors are waiting for stronger catalysts. Clearer Fed policy guidance, resilient Wall Street earnings, and continued expansion of institutional crypto products will likely determine whether the next leg of the bull cycle begins.
On the positive side, U.S. corporate earnings remain resilient, Berkshire Hathaway has started deploying more of its massive cash reserves, and tokenized assets continue strengthening confidence in digital assets.
In the near term, three factors will shape market direction: the U.S. CPI report, oil prices, and ETF fund flows. If inflation eases while institutional inflows remain strong, $BTC could continue leading the market, paving the way for renewed momentum in $ETH, $SOL, and high-quality altcoins.
#CPIToResetFedBets
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
#SP500Eyes8000
$BTC
$ETH Hedge funds on CME have just ended years of "inertia short selling" and turned to net longing—a signal not seen in seven years. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on X pointing out that CME's hedge fund has shifted to net long BTC futures, which is "extremely rare." Why is it rare? Institutional investors on CME have almost always been net short, with the core logic behind basis trading—hedge funds short Bitcoin futures on CME while going long through spot ETFs, earning the spread between futures and spot. This is a market-neutral strategy, where you profit from the price difference rather than betting on direction. This arbitrage mechanism allows hedge funds to automatically show a net short position on the futures side, with CME-related data remaining negative for years. Basis trading cannot be conducted in a net long position, so institutions cannot hold net long positions while profiting from price differences. The true meaning of net longing: This shift to net long positions means institutions are likely no longer arbitrageurs "profiting from spreads" but trend traders "betting on direction." Ki Young Ju's interpretation is: institutional investors are betting on BTC to rise further. The deeper reason behind this shift is the collapse of traditional carry trading logic. Previously, the annualized basis of Bitcoin futures was once below 3%, making it less attractive than the two-year U.S. Treasury bond (3.8%). Combined with financing and execution costs, this "risk-free return" has become no longer cost-effective. When arbitrage opportunities disappear, institutions can only make choicesUnderstanding this rare shift in CME (CME Group) positions:
For years, hedge funds' BTC futures positions in CME have been "net shorts." Don't get me wrong, they're not bearish, but rather doing "basis arbitrage": buying spot (or ETFs), selling futures, and earning that 5%-15% annualized premium.
The current shift means:
1. End of arbitrage: The basis has shrunk to the point of losing its weight, or they believe the returns from holding long positions will far exceed the interest on that arbitrage.
2. Directional Betting: This group of "smart money" is no longer satisfied with just hedge; they have begun blatantly betting on BTC's price increases. This signals a shift from "defense" to "all-out offense."
* Since they dare to go long above the $70,000 mark, hedge funds definitely do not expect a rise to $75,000 as a "small silver coin." Quantitative models show that this level of position conversion typically signals a 30%-50% one-sided trend. The market's expectation of a BTC push to $100,000 has now peaked.
* Fund managers may have anticipated a more aggressive Fed rate cut, or that global sovereign funds will enter the market around August 10.
* Volatility Reversion: Arbitrage is the market's "shock absorber," while directional positions are the "amplifier." This means the upcoming market will be extremely "violent"—either not moving at all, or moving up and down with thousands of dollars in vertical gains and downs.
How will you get a share of the pie?
1，I was scrolling in bed and saw the BOJ headlines. My heart instantly went 180. 🙉
$BTC is already wobbling around 64,999, and another rate hike from Japan? That’s not exactly what leveraged longs need right now.
I still remember last year’s carry-trade unwind. Three days of instant noodles. Not doing that again.
The BOJ is split too. Hawks want to hike with inflation still hot, while doves want to wait. If global liquidity is already tight, another hike could push leverage out fast. 65K might not hold, and 64K could get tested.
I already closed all my futures. Call me a chicken, whatever. I’d rather miss a move than get caught in another liquidity flush.
What do you guys think? Is the BOJ about to make BTC nervous again?
$BTC $ETH
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Japan’s struggle to stabilize the yen is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Despite a reported ¥11.7T intervention, with support from the U.S., USD/JPY has still climbed another 2.29%.
That kind of move after such a large intervention sends a strong message: the underlying market forces remain powerful.
The bigger issue isn’t simply the yen itself.
If yen weakness persists, the consequences could extend into global liquidity, funding conditions, and risk assets across markets.
This is a macro development worth watching closely, especially for crypto and other liquidity-sensitive assets.
$USDS
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#CPIToResetFedBets #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #黄金升破4300美元, are funds on edge or risk avoidance? $XAUT Key events and data affecting gold prices in August
The core contradiction in August's gold price was to verify the authenticity of Fed rate cut expectations: the July nonfarm payroll upset has greatly shattered expectations for a rate hike in September, and upcoming inflation data and central bank speeches will determine whether this rebound is a temporary recovery or the starting point of a trendy upward trend.
1. Core Economic Data (Directly Influences Policy Expectations, Has the Greatest Impact)
1. US July CPI / Core CPI (First Inflation Gauge)
- Announcement time: August 13, 20:30 Beijing time
- Market expectations: Overall CPI year-on-year 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year 2.5%
- Impact: If inflation falls more than expected, it will directly open the imagination of "pausing rate hikes in September and cutting rates at year-end," which is positive for gold; If inflation rebounds, market rate cut expectations will cool quickly, and gold prices are very likely to experience a temporary correction.
2. US July PPI and retail sales data
- Announcement date: Evening of August 14, Beijing time
- Impact: PPI reflects inflationary pressure on the production side, while retail sales reflect the resilience of U.S. consumption. If producer inflation falls + consumption weakens, it will further strengthen expectations of "economic cooling and policy shift," supporting continued gold prices.
3. Federal Reserve July FOMC meeting minutes
- Announcement time: Early morning of August 21, Beijing time
- Impact: The market focuses on the extent of officials' discussions on rate cuts and their latest assessments on inflation and employment. If multiple officials mention conditions for rate cuts and maintain a dovish attitude, it is positive for gold; If there is a general emphasis on inflation risks and resistance to rate cuts, it will suppress gold prices in the short term.
4. US July Core PCE Price Index (Federal Reserve Official Inflation Anchor)
- Announcement date: Evening of August 28, Beijing time
- Impact: This is the Fed's most valued inflation gauge, directly determining the policy tone of the Jackson Hole annual meeting and the most critical market trigger in late August.
2. Top Policy Event: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting
- Dates: August 27-29 local time (August 28-30 Beijing time)
- Key Highlights: Federal Reserve Chair Walsh's keynote speech on August 28
- Impact: This is the most important policy setting window ahead of the Fed's September meeting. Although the theme is "financial innovation," the market's core focus is on interest rate policy signals:
- If a dovish signal of "pausing rate hikes and starting discussions on rate cuts" is issued, gold is very likely to start a wave of gains;
- If the hawkish stance is maintained and inflation still faces upside risks, this round of rebound is likely to peak temporarily.
3. Capital and Market Factors (Affecting Short-Term Volatility Rhythm)
1. CFTC gold holdings and gold ETF capital flows: This round of rally is dominated by short closing positions. If bull funds continue to enter and gold ETFs continue net inflows, the market trend will continue; If bulls concentrate profit-taking, it is likely to trigger a rapid pullback.
2. The US Dollar Index and US Treasury Real Yields: The Core Anchor of Gold Pricing. Whether the US Dollar Index can break below the 100 mark in August and whether the 10-year real yield on US Treasuries can continue to decline will directly determine the height of this gold price rebound.
3. RMB exchange rate: Domestic gold prices are linked to international gold + RMB exchange rate. RMB appreciation narrows domestic gold price gains, while depreciation amplifies the gains.
4. Geopolitical and fundamental supporting factors
1. Global Central Bank Gold Purchases: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 21 consecutive months, continuously providing bottom support for gold prices, with a low probability of sharp unilateral declines.
2. Middle East Geopolitical Situation: If progress in negotiations on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz continues, it could push up oil prices and inflation expectations, indirectly disrupting the pace of rate cuts; If further easing continues, inflationary pressures will be further eased, which is positive for gold.
Overall, gold prices in the first half of August will mainly fluctuate to digest overbought prices, while the second half will see CPI, PCE data, and the Jackson Hole annual meeting clarify the medium-term direction.Nonfarm payrolls are expected to cut rates, but Wednesday's CPI is the real 'judgment day'
Nonfarm Payroll Aftermath: Rate hike expectations sharply lowered, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, with May/June combined revised down by 103,000, pushing the market to lower its rate hike expectations for September
Forecast platform: Polymarket has a 63% probability of keeping rates unchanged in September
； Kalshi about 65%; CME FedWatch about 55.6% (no rate hike) / 44.4% (25bp hike)
This Wednesday (August 12), market expectations for CPI will be released: overall CPI year-on-year: 3.4% (previous: 3.5%), core CPI year-on-year: 2.5% (previously: 2.6%)
However, core services inflation may remain sticky, posing upside risks
If CPI cools → rate hike expectations fade further, risk assets benefit; If CPI rebounds more than expected→ the 44.4% probability of rate hikes will quickly rebound, and the market will reprice
The non-farm payroll lowered rate hike expectations, and the CPI decided whether to "take back." At 8:30 PM on Wednesday night, the answer will be revealed.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
$BTC $ETH #比特币BIP-110 fork stalled, miner support insufficient
The BIP-110 fork stalled due to severe insufficient miner hash power support, effectively invalidating the fork chain and failing to form a valid fork candy. All mainstream wallet exchanges followed the BTC mainnet.
The negative FUD has taken effect immediately, and the panic selling pressure caused by previous forks has been fully digested. The event itself will not change the fundamentals of Bitcoin, and the market will return to macro and ETF capital flows as the dominant direction.
Subsequent community debates about inscriptions will continue, only causing short-term emotional disturbances and unlikely to drive large-scale bull or bear markets.
$BTC ETH's numbers seem directional, but the sample size reminds us not to overestimate the proportions. OKX Onchain OS recorded 14 mentions of ETH in one hour in the official snapshot at 17:00 on August 10, including 11 times on X and 3 times in the news; A total of 350 times in twenty-four hours. The latest hourly speed is 0.96 times the 24-hour average, meaning it is almost close to the 24-hour hourly average, and overall it is 'roughly close to the long-window average.' This describes attention rhythm but cannot replace price, transaction, or flow data. In terms of tone, the one-hour bullish is 21%, bearish 7%, and neutral about 72%, so currently the 'slightly bullish has the advantage.' The 24-hour correspondence is 39% overly bullish, 13% bearish; Whether the short window is deviating from the long window is more meaningful than looking at just one percentage. What I care about most here is actually the denominator: only 14 times. If there are a few more focused discussions, the proportions may be clearly rewritten; Retweets, quotes, and news retellings may all be talking about the same thing. You can write the position as long or bearish as is, but it shouldn't be casually translated as how much capital has established positions in the same direction. Currently, ETH's source structure is "primarily X, supplemented by news." If X mentions the increase first and the news is still scarce, it feels more like the community spreading first; If news increases simultaneously, it only means more verifiable materials will be available, and you still need to return to the original announcements from foundations, agreements, regulators, or trading platforms to confirm details#比特币BIP-110 fork stalled, miner support insufficient
A fork hailed as "the biggest crisis in Bitcoin history" lasted from life to death, not surviving even a single day.
Wang Chun, co-founder of F2Pool, directly criticized the chain, saying the chain's hashrate wasn't strong enough and the community wouldn't keep up. And that's exactly what happened—none of the major mining pools made a statement, just a few people were just hyping themselves up. It's no wonder they can hold on.
What does this mean? Bitcoin's governance mechanism is much tougher than many people imagine. Without miners or community consensus, even if you set up a chain, no one will pay attention to you. This isn't Bitcoin being "split in two"; it actually proves its resilience in "merging into one."
For the crypto community, this signal is clear—Bitcoin's rules can't be changed just by anyone. If someone forcibly creates a chain, if no one follows, it's pointless. This is good news for long-term holders, showing that the system's stability is guaranteed.
Those who shout every day that "Bitcoin is going to split" can just go to sleep.
$BICO $ETH $SNDK $MUBARAK 会是第二个TUT？我觉得够呛，你们自己看，反正我是不敢追了。
Aster刚宣布上永续合约，5倍杠杆一给，价格直接原地起飞，0.013拉到0.03，市值差点干到3000万刀。这剧本也太眼熟了——前几天TUT不就是这样？上新合约先涨50%，然后杠杆资金冲进来挤空，直接飙了300%。现在这套“Aster上新+杠杆助推+老币轮动”的模板，简直就是复制粘贴。
说实话，MUBARAK和TUT都一起进过投票名单，现在挨个被拉爆，我第一反应就是资金在按着名单翻牌子。但问题是，TUT能走那么猛是有故事撑着的，MUBARAK这波纯粹是合约流动性硬推，感觉更像补涨跟风。CZ那句“要买meme币”都挂十天了还没动静，市场憋得冒烟，来个火星子就能着。
兄弟们觉得这波能走出独立行情，还是合约一开完就得凉？反正我押跟风补涨，看看这次有没有人站岗。