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#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
When will US stocks stop falling?
Can you still buy the bottom after storing everything?
Yesterday, the market started to decline with increased volume at the close. From the news side, it seems inflation is intensifying and interest rate hike expectations are starting again. In reality, it's still the US stock gains from March to June and the uncertainty of AI investment. When the market faces uncertainty, it sells.
Currently, there is no sign of stabilizing the decline. The Nasdaq has mostly fallen and risen more than gained, mainly supported by the Seven Sisters. The original logic was hard tech falling, software rising, NVIDIA rising, Apple rising, Google rising. Now, after clearly selling hard tech, funds have abandoned the Seven Sisters
When will this situation improve? The ultimate form of this improvement should be when Nvidia begins to stabilize, stabilize, or even form a strong trend. This requires not only explosive earnings reports but also technological breakthroughs and a new round of AI gaps. When Nvidia rises, semiconductors will recover, storage will stop falling and rebound, and US stocks will rebound.
But now, there's no need to pay more attention to everyone's advice. When I first bought US stocks, the pandemic hit right after I bought them. At the time, I was completely on guard at the summit, but when I checked afterwards, that spot was just a small pit
The advantage of spot trading and regular averaging is that you can endure. US stocks are highly volatile, and in the long run, QQQ still has an average return of 20%. I don't think AI will ever collapse, nor do I think we'll buy Nasdaq at its century-high now.
The market really needs to cool down. Once cooled, only a rational self can buy Google and SMH. Back then, buying and holding prices wasn't just to sell at a slight rise or unbearable with a slight drop.
There are too many people who want to get rich overnight in the US market, but Buffett has long said that speculating on US stock market prices is tantamount to suicide. He remains firmly optimistic about AI tech stocks, thinking that looking back in a few years, now is definitely a great opportunity
#HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in one week The market may appear healthy at first glance, but capital is becoming increasingly selective. Liquidity is no longer lifting the entire altcoin market—it's concentrating in a limited number of high-conviction assets while many others continue to lose momentum. This is a rotation-driven market, not a broad-based rally. One of the clearest signals right now is that Open Interest has been easing while trading volume remains resilient. That combination suggests leverage is cooling, but real particiMy brain says: Now is a good opportunity to enter the market. My hands say: Wait a bit longer. My heart says: I thought the same last time and missed out.
Today, there was a piece of news that I read three times over — Morgan Stanley launched spot ETPs for ETH and SOL.
Morgan Stanley, one of the largest wealth management banks in the US, manages over $7 trillion in assets. Their launch of ETPs is not just empty talk; it provides their high-net-worth clients a "legitimate way to get in."
And guess what happened next.
After hours, LRCX rose 6.58%, Microsoft rose 8.8%, and Millennium Management plans to raise $20 billion to invest in AI. Tech stocks are being sold off at a record pace — retail investors are running, institutions are buying. On the crypto side, sentiment indicators (altcoin resilience index, spot premium, USDC premium) are all holding or buying. Sentiment and capital flow indicators are split — retail is fearful, institutions are allocating.
Thinking calmly, the reason Morgan Stanley dares to launch ETH/SOL ETPs at this point is actually simple. The choice is to allocate between safe-haven assets and AI, and crypto has become an indispensable part of large institutional allocations. The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq is decreasing, ETH is following its own DeFi fundamentals, and growth on the SOL chain hasn’t stopped.
So my judgment is that Morgan Stanley’s ETP launch is a mid-to-long-term milestone — its significance is not about how much it will rise, but that crypto assets have truly entered the "allocatable list" of the world’s top wealth management institutions. From this perspective, now is actually a good time, but not a time to go all in — it’s a time to build positions gradually.
There are also a few hot topics worth mentioning today:
#摩根士丹利推出ETH和SOL的现货ETP
Morgan Stanley’s ETP costs more than buying spot directly, but for institutions, the compliance value far outweighs the cost. When gold ETFs launched, gold entered a decade-long bull market. The path for crypto ETPs may be shorter but the logic is the same — lowering the entry barrier to expand the capital pool.
#HYPE遭大额解押减持，一周回落10%
Large-scale unlocking of HYPE is selling off, with a 10% drop in the past week. But the DeFi sector overall warmed up today — BEAT +14%, Aave also stabilized. Single-token risk does not represent the sector’s logic; HYPE’s drop doesn’t mean DeFi is dead. Wait until the unlocking window ends to look for buying opportunities.
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象
Morgan Stanley’s ETP launch also implies one premise — BTC no longer follows the Nasdaq step by step. If BTC were still a "high beta tech stock," Morgan Stanley’s compliance team wouldn’t approve the product. The decline in correlation is one of the necessary conditions for ETP approval.
$ETH $SOL $BTC #DeFi #InstitutionalAllocationAwesome! Has everyone chased after them? Anyway, I followed it. Now the person is trapped on the mountaintop. 😂 $BTC Before 2 a.m., BTC suddenly began to surge violently. From 63,500 all the way to 64,500, each candlestick is stronger than the last. The comment section is full of shouts: "The bull market is back!" "This time, it's going straight to a new high!" "Short sellers wiped out tonight!" I couldn't help myself at the time either. Seeing the market getting stronger, FOMO was instantly at its peak, thinking that if I didn't get in this time, I might really miss out on the market. But as soon as they got in, the market started to change its attitude. It was later discovered that this rally was more about premature trading of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. The final result is also out. Interest rates remain steady at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive round without adjustment. However, the voting results were far from calm. Nine votes supported maintaining interest rates, while three supported continued rate hikes. This indicates that the hawkish stance still exists and the market has not truly entered a loose cycle. So last night's rally I prefer to understand as an emotional release rather than a trend reversal. A true bull market is not confirmed by a single large bullish candlestick. At the very least, it must break through key resistance, hold its previous high, and then complete an effective pullback to truly open up upward potential. The scariest thing in the crypto world isn't the decline. But every time it rises, it makes you feel "this time it must be real." Once you can't resist chasing in, the dealer starts lecturing the newcomer. Of course...... Last night, I also successfully paid tuition once. It seems the difference between veteran and new investors is not that they won't get trapped. But this is knowing#The Fed's three votes for a rate hike, tonight's PCE becomes the new focus
Brothers, last night's Fed drama was quite interesting.
Let's start with the result. 9 votes in favor, 3 against, interest rates unchanged, the fifth consecutive time holding steady. Compared to last month's unanimous 12-0 approval, this time there were three dissenting votes.
The three regional Fed presidents from Cleveland (Harmak), Minneapolis (Kashkari), and Dallas (Logan) all voted for a rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction.
This is much more important than the decision itself.
From disagreeing with the statement wording in April to directly voting against in July, their stance has escalated from "having concerns" to "taking direct action." Since Waller joined the Fed, internal fractures have never truly healed.
Waller said a few thought-provoking things at the press conference: "This is not a pause, just the beginning of policy adjustment," and "We will not hesitate to raise rates if necessary." The words are there, but he won't say when the hike will happen. Previously, the Fed would give guidance in advance, allowing the market enough time to digest expectations. Now Waller has cut forward guidance, so any CPI or nonfarm payroll data can directly move US Treasuries and crypto markets.
CME immediately started repricing. The probability of a September rate hike jumped to about 63%. Long-term Treasury yields rose, the Dow dropped over 2%. Meanwhile, crypto warmed up, and gold climbed back above $4100.
Back to crypto
This event clearly tells us three things.
First, volatility will only increase, not decrease. Waller cut forward guidance, so every new data release means the market has to guess again. US Treasuries and the dollar will fluctuate wildly with data, and crypto assets will be hit first. Previously, you could roughly predict the interest rate path for the next few months; now it's a complete guess.
Second, expectation management is more important than directional judgment. Before the decision, the market expected a 30% chance of a rate hike. The result was no hike, and crypto actually warmed up. The market fears not the hike itself but an "unexpected hike." As long as expectation management is done well, bad news can turn into good news.
Third, the linkage between crypto and macro is deepening. Bitcoin has recently oscillated between 63,400 and 64,800, showing a strong correlation with macro sentiment. How the Fed votes and what Waller says directly reflect on the market.
Tonight at 8:30 PM, the PCE data will be released. It's the Fed's most important inflation indicator. If PCE exceeds expectations, a September hike is basically certain. If it falls short, the market will reprice again.
Before tonight's PCE release, don't bet on direction. Wait for the data to land.
Being steady is better than anything else
$BTC $SNDK $SOL South Korea's KOSPI index has dropped nearly 40% since its peak on June 22. The scale of leveraged ETFs shrank from $50 billion to $17 billion. The hedge fund's long-short ratio dropped from 5.7x to 3.2x. JPMorgan pointed out in a July 29 research report that leveraged ETF liquidations have been completed, and hedge funds have deleveraged more than 90% of their progress. Short-term price shocks may still have lingering effects, but the market position structure has already undergone a complete round of clearing. Xiao Morgan's judgment is based on three conditions simultaneously: position pressure is gone, valuations are cheap enough, and profit fundamentals have not collapsed. With all three factors combined, the Korean stock market has entered a valuation recovery window. $SNDK For BTC, this meeting is neutral in the short term.
The positive news is that the Federal Reserve has not tightened further, temporarily easing the market's biggest policy risk.
But there are also pressures: the continued delay in rate cuts means US dollar liquidity will not be released on a large scale immediately, and high-valuation risk assets will still need to undergo capital screening.
Based on the current BTC trend, the 67,000 level remains a key resistance.
If subsequent economic data continues to cool and the Fed sends more easing signals, BTC has a chance to break previous highs.
But if inflation fluctuates again and US tech stocks adjust, BTC is very likely to follow risk assets in pulling back, retesting the 62,000-63,000 or even lower range.
The biggest market misconception now is mistaking "possible future rate cuts" as "liquidity has already been injected."
A real big market has never been driven by expectations to the end; it depends on waiting for funds to truly enter the market.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight AI stock crashes don't necessarily mean AI is over; rather, the most crowded trades are starting to be liquidated.
In the past few months, the market has undergone a very obvious change.
Capital is rapidly withdrawing from AI tech stocks.
According to US stock investment sources: in the past 3 trading days, the global tech sector has seen a rare outflow of funds over many years.
This is not an ordinary correction.
It's more like institutions are beginning to reduce crowded positions.
Why?
Because in the past year:
Buying AI has almost become the simplest trade.
Buy:
NVIDIA;
Broadcom;
Micron;
Optical modules;
AI infrastructure.
Everyone made money.
But when a trade becomes increasingly crowded,
the market starts to focus on another question:
"With so much money invested in AI, when will it turn into profit?"
Historical data shows:
When momentum stocks rise more than 20% in 3 months,
there is often a sharp short-term fluctuation.
The reason is not that fundamentals suddenly disappear.
But:
Profit-taking + capital rebalancing.
In the past 11 similar cases:
Many times after a pullback,
there is actually a next phase of rise.
So the real question now is not:
"Is AI a bubble?"
But:
Who will capital reward in the future?
Before:
As long as you told the AI story, the stock would rise.
In the future:
The market will look for:
AI companies that can truly generate revenue
Supply chains with continuously improving gross margins
Enterprises whose capital expenditures can convert into cash flow
AI phase one: buy the imagination.
AI phase two: buy the realization.
The real danger is not the decline.
But:
If you still use 2024 logic to invest in 2026 AI.
$NVDA $AVGO $MU $GLW $MRVL #美股☀️ "Bitcoin Market Morning Train: Core Data and Information Overview"
1⃣ Quick overview of the BTC market
BTC's current price is 63,500-64,000, with a 24-hour rally and pullback. The 24-hour high was 64,745, and the lowest was 63,378. The Fear and Greed Index is 29, indicating the fear range. Short selling volume is strengthening, while bullish rebound capacity is insufficient.
Short-term bearish bias, but the 63,100-63,300 support levels have been holding continuously.
2⃣ Core data from the past 24 hours
24-hour liquidations totaled $308 million, long positions were 228 million, and short positions were 80.38 million. Daily trading volume was 14,693 tokens, indicating a main volume level, with a rise and a pullback on increased volume.
The US dollar index fell below 101 to close at 100.84 (-0.59%). The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.673%, and the 30-year yield at 5.197%. WTI crude was at $84.60 per barrel (+6.74%), and Brent crude was at $88.11 per barrel (+7.35%).
3⃣Data tracking of BTC market participants' behavior
(1) ETF Institutional Capital Flows:
On July 29, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $49.75 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of net outflows. BlackRock IBIT had a single-day net outflow of $54.83 million, while Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust had a net inflow of $5.07 million, just a drop in the bucket.
Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 3,170 BTC over the past week, with cumulative outflows only recovering 3.3% of the previous $8.2 billion outflow.
(2) BTC inflows and outflows from exchanges:
Over the past 30 days, about 60,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, below the annual average of 24%, near multi-year lows.
Net flow was about -1,300 coins, close to zero axis, with inflows and outflows basically balanced, no selling orders piling up, and no liquidity tightening caused by large-scale withdrawals.
(3) Whales and Miners:
Over the past 8 days, whales have increased their holdings by about 19,696 BTC (over $1 billion). 10,000 to 10,000 BTC wallets continue to accumulate as retail investors withdraw, a textbook Wyckoff phase C signal Santiment describes as a textbook signal, with smart money taking over when retail panic strikes.
For miners, the MPI is negative, with selling pressure at multi-year lows. About $198 million worth of BTC was transferred from Kraken in two installments to undisclosed wallets.
(4) Retail Investors' BTC Trading Situation:
Retail investor activity has clearly declined, and small-money wallets have weakened their willingness to bottom-fish, forming a stark divergence from the whales. Stablecoins have seen net outflows from exchanges for 35 consecutive days, with purchasing power continuously shrinking, leaving retail investors out of ammunition.
(5) Order book pending data:
BTC main trading volume in 24 hours totaled $832 million, with buys and sells of $390 million, selling volume of $442 million, and a turnover difference of $51.42 million. Net order spread was $977 million (positive), with active support below 63K. Above 64.5K, the hanging order is trapped, forming a dumping pressure wall.
💎 Summary of market entity behavior:
The three forces have different directions. Over the past 60 days, whales have continuously accumulated about 66,700 BTC, making them the most committed buyers at present;
The exchange saw only 60,000 inflows over the 30th day, below the annual average of 24%, with net flow close to zero and no new selling pressure.
ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive days, with $49.75 million outflows on July 29 and BlackRock IBIT outflowing $54.83 million; Stablecoins have seen net outflows for 35 consecutive days, leaving retail investors out of pocket.
4⃣ Special attention today
Tonight at 20:30, the US June core PCE price index (expected year-on-year 2.8%, previous 2.9%) and June personal spending month-over-month (expected 0.4%, previous 0.6%) will be held. This is the first key inflation data since the FOMC, and will confirm Walsh's judgment that "inflation is far from resolved," directly influencing expectations for a rate hike in September.
5⃣ Core judgment
Three opposing votes are a signal, not a result. Whale accumulation (19,696 coins) vs. continuous ETF outflows (4 consecutive days of withdrawals), two forces tug-of-war at 64K.
63K is the center of the battlefield; the rule is to recover from oscillation, break to accelerate downward, let PCE land first, and let the high-volume candlestick confirm the direction first.The Federal Reserve didn't raise interest rates, yet BTC only rose a little, indicating the market simply doesn't believe it.
Last night, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, and the crypto community's biggest fear of a "sudden rate hike" did not happen.
Logically, after the bad news settled, BTC should have rebounded significantly.
So what happened?
BTC only struggled slightly around $63,000, without even a decent big bullish candle.
What's more troubling is that some inside the Fed support rate hikes, long-term US Treasury yields continue to surge, and there are reports of the US launching airstrikes on Iran. The market verbally says the bad news is priced in, but in reality, funds simply dare not chase.
So I'm increasingly feeling:
The biggest danger for BTC is not major bad news, but that it still can't rise after good news.
A truly strong market doesn't need others to repeatedly explain why it hasn't risen.
If BTC can't even hold $65,000 next, this so-called "bad news priced in" might just be an opportunity for trapped holders to escape.
But another possibility is that big money is still waiting for tonight's inflation data and tech company earnings reports, and the direction hasn't been truly chosen yet.
Only two options:
A: This is just a buildup, BTC will soon break through $65,000
B: Good news can't push it up, and there will be another drop later
I choose B first.
Not a long-term bearish view, but this market clearly isn't as strong as people say it is. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 $BTC 7.30 Midday Latest Gold Market Analysis
The Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision was finally released early Thursday morning. As expected, the benchmark rate remains steady between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking their fifth consecutive time of "doing nothing." Although a small number speculated about a possible rate hike before the meeting, ultimately everyone agreed to hold steady for now.
However, this vote result is quite noteworthy! While 9 members voted to maintain the status quo, surprisingly 3 members directly opposed, strongly demanding a 25 basis point rate hike! This is the biggest internal division in recent years. What does this indicate? It shows growing concern within the Fed about a possible rebound in inflation. Don’t assume they will immediately flood the market or shift to easing; it’s not that simple.
Rise then fall, what’s next? Looking at the surface, when the news broke early this morning, the market surged sharply at first, but the good times didn’t last long and a routine pullback followed. Switching our focus to the 4-hour chart, the market is relatively calm now with no major sharp fluctuations expected in the short term. However, on the 15-minute chart, you can clearly sense signs of a market reversal.
Overall, for the big picture going forward, we should keep a clear mind. Short-term may see some small fluctuations, but the overall trend remains upward. Gold is expected to hover around 4030-4010, targeting the 4070-4090 range.
This is purely a personal market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice!
$XAU 1. Core Topic (Extraction) Nvidia is reported to have provided up to $250 billion in debt guarantees to OpenAI and participated in a financing plan worth about $350 billion; Tech giants like Google are also providing debt guarantees for AI data center projects, injecting their own credit into the infrastructure chain. The market is beginning to worry about a "circular financing" structure: giants borrow money → buy GPUs→ Nvidia receives payments→ then invest in the next round—credit risk is repriced, and related CDS (credit default swap) spreads soar. 2. Why is it so hot? The 'hidden line' behind the AI capital spending frenzy (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon combined to reach $700 billion+ in 2026) has been brought to the forefront. When the scale of guarantees is so large that it causes CDS to fluctuate, it means Wall Street is starting to ask: Can the returns from this infrastructure really cover financing costs? III. Extended Analysis (Original Layer 3) (1) Guarantees are essentially putting 'future cash flow' forward; if AI monetization falls short of expectations, the risk will backfire on the parent company's balance sheet. (2) A double-edged blow to BTC: AI spending increases short-term negative risk appetite (funds are drawn out for infrastructure), but if cooling cools down + cashing out exceeds expectations, it will recover. (3) On-chain, attention can be paid to the transmission between AI concept tokens and NVDA tokenized stocks—they are two skins of the same narrative. 4. What to Watch Next: Disclosure of future guarantee scale between Nvidia and Google, related CDS trends, free cash flow quality from various AI financial reports, and the response to XNVDA tokenized stock. 5. Talk in the comments section Ask you three questions: The 100 billion guarantee is the burning power belief in computing power$BTC Storage Stocks Crash + Fed Hawks = Crypto Under Pressure
Storage stocks are currently being hammered by a retail sell-off, with Micron and SanDisk severely affected. The root cause? The market is doubting the sustainability of AI capital spending—and AI is one of the main narratives driving this crypto cycle. The valuation logic for AI-related tokens is being rewritten.
The Fed held the rate steady for the 5th consecutive meeting, but there were 3 votes against a rate hike—the most since 2016—pushing the probability of a September rate hike to 82%. Treasury yields are rising, weighing on all risk assets.
Bitcoin remains at $64K, but risk appetite is tightening from both sides. Stay on the sidelines—don’t rush to buy the dip.#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议 $ETH $SOL $BTC Storage stocks plunge + Hawkish Fed = Crypto under pressure
Storage sector stocks are being heavily sold off by retail investors, with Micron and SanDisk dropping sharply. The root cause? The market is doubting the sustainability of capital spending on AI – and AI is one of the core stories driving this crypto cycle. The valuation logic for AI-related tokens is being rewritten.
The Fed held rates steady for the 5th consecutive meeting, but with 3 votes against a rate hike – the most since 2016 – pushing the odds of a September rate hike to 82%. Treasury yields rose, putting pressure on all risk assets.
Bitcoin is holding at $64,000, but risk appetite is tightening from both sides. Stay on the sidelines and observe – don’t rush to catch the bottom.#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议 $ETH $SOL $KAITO High-level distribution arrived as scheduled, AI narrative facing a "cutting off the root cause"?
As a popular stock in the AI+InfoFi sector, KAITO surged to around 1.38 thanks to its narrative buzz in the early stages. However, recently, X Platform suddenly revoked API permissions for InfoFi applications, directly cutting off core data sources and shaking fundamental logic. Combined with the potential for chip unlocking expectations, market sentiment quickly reversed, and profit-taking began to panic and flee.
Accelerating the top: Previously, the price ignored resistance and pushed the short all the way, with trading volume surging sharply and attracting a large amount of chasing capital.
Volume Volume Forced Guillotine: After reaching the 1.3878 high, bullish momentum was exhausted, bears launched fierce counterattacks, and consecutive large bearish candles directly halved the price from its high.
Breaking through and seeking a bottom: Currently, the price has broken through short-term support, and the market has entered a phase of inertia after sentiment release, seeking new chips-dense zones.
Future direction: The bottomless "value return"
The current price of 1.19 is by no means a bottom; it is merely a relay of the decline. After losing the core traffic entry support, the initial bubble needs to be thoroughly cleaned up. Above, the 1.30-1.38 range has formed a heavy "trapped + stop-loss" double resistance level. Going forward, it is highly likely that a declining trend will be followed by a sharp drop, seeking a new balance at lower levels (such as around 0.8 or even 0.6). $BTC Storage Stocks Crash + Fed Hawks = Crypto Under Pressure
Storage stocks are getting hammered by a retail sell-off, with Micron and SanDisk taking heavy hits. The root cause? Markets are questioning the sustainability of AI capital spending—and AI has been one of the core narratives driving this crypto cycle. The valuation logic for AI-related tokens is being rewritten.
The Fed held rates steady for the 5th straight meeting, but 3 dissenting votes for a hike—the most since 2016—pushed September rate-hike odds to 82%. Treasury yields are rising, weighing on all risk assets.
Bitcoin is holding $64K, but risk appetite is squeezed from both sides. Stay on the sidelines—don't rush to buy the dip.#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议 $ETH $SOL $BTC storage stocks crash + Fed turns hawkish, crypto market under pressure
The storage sector faces a wave of retail sell-offs, with Micron and SanDisk plunging. The root cause is market doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure—AI is one of the core narratives of this crypto rally, and the valuation logic of related tokens is being rewritten.
The Fed has held steady for 5 consecutive times, but a record 3 votes opposed rate hikes, and September rate hike expectations surged to 82%. U.S. Treasury yields rise, putting broad pressure on risk assets.
Bitcoin holds firm at 64,000, but short-term risk appetite is doubly suppressed. Mostly wait and see, don’t rush to bottom-fish. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议 $ETH $SOL Today's Market Daily is here~
I'm Ci Ge. With interest rates unchanged, the Dow Jones plunged 2.19%, and BTC edged down 0.17% to $63,718. On the surface, things seem calm, but beneath the surface, the structure has changed.
Why didn't BTC follow the US stock market plunge?
The Dow fell 2.19%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.74%, and the S&P dropped 1.52%. But BTC only fell by 0.17%. The decoupling between BTC and tech stocks is accelerating, with BTC rising about 6% since July and the semiconductor sector falling nearly 20%. K33 Research is right: Nasdaq positions are becoming increasingly crowded, BTC is consolidating near multi-year lows, and correlation weakening is inevitable.
Microsoft's cloud business exceeded expectations, surging nearly 8% in the night session, but Micron fell nearly 10%, and storage chips continued to plunge. AI application software is strengthening, hardware is under comprehensive pressure, and funds are shifting from pure hardware narratives to performance-driven targets. BTC is caught in the middle, neither being dragged down by hardware nor taking off with software, and is now carving its own rhythm.
Structural changes in the clearing map
BTC is currently at 63,782, with limited liquidation pressure. Above, about $500 million in short liquidations has gathered between 64,700 and 65,300; if this area is broken, short covering would amplify upward momentum. Downward, long positions liquidated about $440 million, slightly lower than above. The liquidation structure is biased upward to test short liquidity.
ETFs have seen net outflows for five consecutive days, but the scale of outflows is narrowing
ETFs have seen net outflows for five consecutive days, but the scale of outflows has narrowed day by day, and selling pressure is gradually fading. The short-term oscillation with a strong tendency remains unchanged; after selling pressure fades, any slight buying pressure can push it up.
A 63.2% probability of a rate hike in September—a knife hanging over the head
CME data shows a 63.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike in September. Only 36.8% remained unchanged. The power of the three opposing votes is still intensifying, and the market is repricing the risk of a rate hike in September. But this news has already been largely digested by BTC.
The direction hasn't changed, but the volatility is on the stronger side
Continue to hold long positions below 64,000, and move the stop loss up to 63,000. If the price pulls back to 63,000 to 63,500, observe the strength of support before deciding whether to add to the position. The above range between 64,700 and 65,300 is the short liquidation zone; if volume rises and it breaks through, BTC is expected to test 66,000.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes a new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading. #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? $BTC $ETH $SNDK The impact of the inflation rebound on the crypto market is a mix of bulls and bears—short-term bearish pressure (tightening liquidity, declining risk appetite), but medium- to long-term structural bullish logic also exists (anti-inflation narrative, capital rotation). 📉 Negative side: tightening liquidity, pressure on risk appetite 1. Rising rate hike expectations directly suppress valuations. The most direct impact of the inflation rebound is delaying or even reversing rate cut expectations. At the beginning of 2026, the market originally priced in rate cuts, but as inflation data fluctuated, the focus shifted mid-year to a possible rate hike within the year. By mid-July, federal funds rate futures implied a cumulative increase of about 39 basis points by year-end. This is a direct negative for crypto assets—Bitcoin and Ethereum are considered high-duration risk assets in asset allocation frameworks and are most sensitive to rising interest rates. A rise in risk-free rates means the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets increases, compressing the theoretical fair value. 2. Capital outflows from risk assets, institutions accelerate exit In a high interest rate environment, funds are clearly withdrawing from risk assets. In the first half of 2026, investors withdrew about $8 billion from crypto investment products within eight weeks, setting a record for the longest and largest capital outflow in history. During May, when the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above 5%, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $649 million. When U.S. Treasuries can provide risk-free returns of 4.5%-5%, investors' incentive to hold highly volatile crypto assets drops sharply. 3. Stronger US Dollar Suppresses Dollar-Denominated Crypto Assets High interest rates often push the dollar higher. The dollar moved#摩根士丹利推出ETH和SOL的现货ETP
$ESP
Today, the Ministry of Commerce announced that the People's Bank of China also simultaneously injected over 870 billion yuan in reverse repo funds. The market's first reaction was a brief rebound in risk appetite, but crypto didn't follow suit. I think this is quite worth dismantling—it exposes the most genuine psychology of capital: macro liquidity is loosening, but money is reluctant to move into highly volatile assets.
The Ministry of Commerce's response to the U.S. "decoupling and supply chain cuts" this time was tough but not escalating, essentially signaling that trade frictions will not worsen in the short term. The central bank also released short-term liquidity on the same day, which should have boosted global risk appetite. But look at Cryptorank's data: only 150 VCs participated in crypto financing in July, an 87% drop from the peak. These figures indicate that the liquidity crunch in the crypto market is not a liquidity issue, but a structural contraction in risk appetite.
Funds are now not about "how much money you have," but about "money willing to take risks." The central bank's liquidity is pushing government bonds and A-shares, while the core contradiction is VC withdrawal on the crypto side. Funds staying in safe-haven logic for a long time won't rush back into small coins just because of a trade statement.
For BTC, ETH, ESP: BTC IS TRADING SIDEWAYS NEAR $0.06, TEMPORARILY ACTING AS A LIQUIDITY ANCHOR BUT LACKING UPWARD MOMENTUM. ETH and SOL depend on whether BTC can regain its key position first; otherwise, highly elastic stocks will only continue to face valuation pressure. ESP is now $0.06, down nearly 3% in 24 hours, acting more like an emotional amplifier—if the main line isn't rising, it's hard for it to strengthen on its own.
Next, let's look at two conditions: First, can ESP rise back above $0.065; Second, whether volume during the rebound is amplified in coordination. Without these two conditions, short-term fluctuations are just noise.
Risk warning: The transmission of macro events to crypto is weakening. Don't blindly buy the dip just because central banks are easing liquidity or making trade statements.The continuous plunge of leveraged ETFs in the South Korean memory sector reveals that its market structure has evolved from merely amplifying individual stock fluctuations to becoming an independent risk source that dominates pricing due to its oversized scale. The Southern Eastspring 2x long Hynix ETF has fallen nearly 85% from its July peak, and the massive mismatch between its asset size (once exceeding HKD 30 billion) and the underlying stock's average daily trading volume has made the ETF's rebalancing and redemption operations the main drivers intensifying one-way selling pressure in the market.
This is not an isolated incident. On July 20, the ETF experienced a sharp rally completely diverging from the underlying stock's trend, which analysts attributed to liquidity mismatches and market maker failures. The ongoing steep decline now represents a concentrated outbreak of this structural fragility during the downtrend. The massive assets of the leveraged ETF (far exceeding the liquidity of the underlying stock) create a negative feedback loop during the decline, and its volatility has in turn influenced and dominated market sentiment pricing for the two leading South Korean memory companies. $SKHYNIX #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 1️⃣ 9,030 $BTC ~ $589M just withdrawn from Binance in 1 day. The largest in the past 5 months 🐳
2️⃣ This is not retail. Most likely whales/funds moving to cold wallets → immediately reducing selling pressure 🔒
3️⃣ Interesting point: The 30-day momentum of $BTC just recovered from -21% to nearly 0 and is starting to turn positive again 📈
4️⃣ History: Oct 2025, Jan 2026, Apr 2026. Every time momentum goes from deep negative → crossing 0, a strong wave follows
5️⃣ A similar setup is appearing now: large net withdrawal + momentum turning positive. The market is definitely paying attention 👀
6️⃣ But no guarantees. Momentum is still fluctuating around 0 for weeks, no decisive candle yet
7️⃣ This is a “signal to watch” not yet a “signal to enter a trade.” Price confirmation breaking resistance is needed
8️⃣ In summary: big players are storing coins. Bulls are trying to push. Stay disciplined, wait for a real breakout before running ❤️1. Core Topic (Extracted) At 02:00 Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision: keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive time holding steady rates. But the real shock was the voting result—9 in favor, 3 against. Logan, Hamak, and Kashkari, three hawkish commissioners, advocated for a direct 25 basis point rate hike. After Walsh's first press conference during his tenure, U.S. stocks plunged late in trading, with the Dow closing down over 1,100 points and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down about 3%. BTC first dipped and then reclaimed the 65,000 mark, moving like a needle with a long lower shadow all day. 2. Why does it dominate the top trend? Maintaining interest rates is supposed to "exhaust all the good news," but the three anti-rate hike proposals sent a dangerous signal: rate hikes are only being postponed, not excluded. The market has cut year-end rate cut expectations from 44 basis points to 36 basis points, marking the most divided rate meeting since 2022. For crypto, the macro ceiling has been lowered again, and the coin market on July ×24 is the first to vote with its feet. 3. Extended Analysis (Original Layer 3) (1) Walsh's "cutting forward-looking guidance" is equivalent to pulling out the market's crutch; the volatility amplifier is activated, and on-chain perpetual responds immediately to the aftermath. (2) The probability of rate hikes has surged unusually due to oil prices and the Middle East—the debate over 'long pain turning into short pain' gives hawks confidence. (3) The classic crypto trap of "buy expectations and sell facts": not raising rates does not mean good news; ETF funds have already split (BTC had a single-day net inflow of 128 million, BlackRock attracted 200 million, but ETH Grayscale sold 210 million in one day). 4Regarding KAITO, the current large fluctuations are not necessarily due to institutional investors; the bigger reasons are:
1. Unlocking is extremely stressful
KAITO has experienced significant token unlock events recently and in the coming months, with a large number of previously locked tokens entering the circulating market. The market's biggest concern is:
* Early Investors
* Core contributors
* Team members
After obtaining the unlock token, will it be sold? Recently, the unlock scale has reached tens of millions of dollars, and there are even larger unlock plans for August.
For small- and mid-cap tokens, this increase in supply can easily lead to sharp volatility.
2. AI sector capital rotation
KAITO belongs to the AI sector.
The AI sector has a unique feature:
* When prices rise, the whole market rushes in
* When prices drop, funds withdraw extremely quickly
Funds are often found in:
* TAO
* FET
* RNDR
* WLD
* KAITO
and rotated between them.
When funds flow to other hotspots, KAITO is prone to short-term fluctuations of 10%-20%.
3. Retail investors dominate
Some of the recent gains have been driven more by retail investors rather than continued whale buying.
The characteristics of this market are:
* Rising quickly
* Falls quickly
* Prone to false breakouts
Once the amount of chasing at high prices decreases, the price will quickly fall.
4. Changes in project fundamentals
In early 2026, the Yaps system Kaito originally relied on was affected by changes in X (Twitter) policy, and the project shifted to Kaito Studio.
The market is focused on:
* Whether the new business model can succeed
* Whether the new tokenomics are effective
There is still controversy.
As a result, capital sentiment keeps shifting, leading to sharp price fluctuations.
Is it the dealer selling the goods?
My judgment:
30% likely due to large players reducing positions, and 70% due to unlocking + market sentiment.
If it really is a typical dealer selling, you usually see:
✅ Trading volume continues to expand
✅ Prices keep hitting new lows
✅ The rebound is getting weaker
KAITO currently looks more like:
* Someone is selling
* Someone answered
* Intense bullish and bearish competition
This is a stage of high volatility, not a complete collapse.
My outlook on KAITO's future
Short-term (1-3 months)
* Slightly volatile and weak
* The unlocking pressure remains
* Volatility may continue to be significant
Midterm (6-12 months)
* If AI narratives heat up again
* Kaito Studio user growth is being realized
There is a chance for a strong recovery. $KAITO Brothers, ZHIPU dropped another 16.38% today, currently priced at $110.6. Triple negative news: The dark side of the moon released the 2.8 trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-source model, ranking first globally in programming capability — GLM's technological leadership is no longer exclusive, with a single-day plunge of 28.49% on July 17; On July 8, the first batch of restricted shares was unlocked + 1,588 HKD for a placement of 198 million shares, with an additional 40% to be unlocked in January 2027; A trillion-yuan market cap corresponds to a loss of 4.7 billion + negative 8.1 billion in net assets + 267% debt ratio. When the technological premium disappears, the fundamentals begin to settle. On-chain: Bears were once crushed by a 31% rebound, but the ultimate winner remains the bears—10x leveraged whale longs at an average position price of $174 have continued to lose $360,000. ZHIPU is currently priced at 110.6, with core resistance above at $145-$150 and strong resistance at $204; psychological support below is $105-$110, with a lifeline at $114 and an extreme bottom at $15. If $114 cannot be held, the downside will open. High volatility remains the norm. The technological monopoly premium has been broken; fast in and out is the bottom line. What do you think is the core of ZIPU? Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice. $BTC $SNDK $ZHIPU #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, causing a sharp drop in stock prices and sparking controversy Stop guessing, the Fed won't save you tonight
To be honest, just hearing the words "interest rate decision" makes me want to roll my eyes.
In the early hours of this morning Beijing time, the Federal Reserve is about to read its draft again. But who still cares about whether to add those 25 basis points? The real sword is hidden in the shrinking numbers—whether it's 60 billion a month or 40 billion, this thing is a hundred times more deadly than Powell's poker face. But I have to pour cold water on it: don't expect this time to point you in the right direction—even they are confused.
Last night (July 29), two pieces of data were released, contradicting themselves: the 5-year inflation forecast fell below 2.1%, and another ghost story about deflation is about to begin; But looking back, the core PCE is firmly stuck at 3.4%. Interest rate cuts? Stagflation? Pick a letter, but no matter how I look at it, it seems like a gamble.
Let me tell you something more heartbreaking. Before today's market open, Texas Instruments (TXN) saw its industrial chip inventory turnover days soar to 142 days—not 14 days, but 142 days. Those who keep saying "AI saves everything" can first explain why Micron (MU)'s DDR5 contract price hasn't risen this week? What happened to the promised permanent shortage? What happened to the promised HBM supply shortage? It turns out that orders for phones and PCs have cooled down to the point where no one wants to pay a premium to stockpile anymore.
Even more ironically, the warehouses of the world's top five PC brands have finished product inventory up 22% compared to last year, while what can be sold to consumers is 6% less. In other words, a large batch of metal boxes labeled as "AI PCs" never made it into users' studies, but were piled up on OEM factory shelves to gather dust. What kind of prosperity is this?
How crazy has the market gotten now? Let me show you a detailed scene: the CBOE skew index (SKEW) surged to 152 this morning, the highest panic pricing since the August 2025 crash; At the same time, the VIX Fear Index hovered at 16.5, looking like a peaceful and peaceful life. The same market, two personalities—do you think Wall Street is schizophrenic, or have we all been played like monkeys?
So my attitude is very simple—don't count, you can't keep up.
All these DCF models, discount rates, and forward guidance are a joke compared to TIPS' real returns (which were fluctuating between -0.7% and -0.2% this morning). Valuation anchor? It doesn't exist. Every "technical increase" or "strategic reduction" you make now is, frankly, a way to boost your own courage.
So what should we do? I can't give you a sure-win code, but I have one iron rule: if your position makes the first thing you do every day when you wake up is to check your phone and watch the market, then don't move anything today. No increases, no decreases, no bottom-fishing, no cutting losses. You close the interface and do something really cheesy—pick up your phone or computer with the latest large model and use it all day long.
Ask yourself three questions: Do you really can't live without its AI features every day? Would you be willing to pay an extra thousand yuan for this level of intelligence? How many people around you really care whether it has an NPU?
You know the answer in your heart.
Tonight, Powell said whatever he wanted, drawing the dot map however he wanted. But the real bottom or top is never shouted at a monetary policy meeting; it's something you can feel with your fingertips. Don't let your position hold you hostage, and don't let Wall Street's narrative think for you. The more chaotic the market, the more you should trust your own feel, not others' voices.
Is it exciting enough? If you think "a bit more swearing" or "a bit more sarcasm," I can keep adjusting it—it's just a matter of your words.[Graphic Observation | Central Bank Weekly Temperature] Beijing time 11:44, Jin10 article focus: Trump criticizes the committee, not Powell; the Federal Reserve experiences an internal split unseen in 50 years.
Background summary: Trump bluntly states that Powell expects a rate cut and blames the "politicized committee" entirely. Three members supported a rate hike at this meeting, setting a rare record early in the tenure of the new Fed chair. The September meeting may become a crucial window for deciding a policy shift.
Cross-asset snapshot: Spot gold 4,052.75 (-0.33%); EUR/USD 1.1452 (-0.10%); USD/JPY 163.51 (+0.08%). Gold, the euro, and the yen simultaneously reflect interest rate expectations, dollar strength, and safe-haven demand, making them suitable external thermometers for crypto risk appetite.
Verification point: If gold strengthens while the dollar also strengthens, risk assets are more likely to come under pressure; if the dollar falls and U.S. stocks recover, BTC/ETH are more likely to follow the risk appetite rebound.
Risk warning: If central bank statements, PCE/CPI, or employment data exceed expectations, the above cross-asset observations need to be reassessed. For market observation only, not investment advice. Pump.fun's token graduation rate suddenly surged eightfold, and I actually don't dare to treat it as a meme market recovery.
Last Friday, the graduation rate surged to 6.7%, compared to the previous four days' average of 4.7%, while the average for the entire June was less than one-eighth of that. The data is indeed impressive, but project quality cannot improve collectively within days; what truly changes is the BOOST mechanism.
Previously, after tokens migrated to PumpSwap, about 20% of the migration liquidity would be permanently locked in the pool. Now, these funds will automatically buy tokens within the first 5 minutes after graduation, and the purchased tokens will be burned afterward.
This effectively provides a public, definite bid for each upcoming graduation program.
BOOST itself happens after graduation and won't directly help the project cross the graduation line, but it changes everyone's plan before graduation: as long as tokens are pushed past the threshold, there will be automatic buying relays afterward. Some people set up early, while others specifically buy before graduation, waiting for the auto-buy order to start and sell.
So the rise in graduation rates only proves that "crossing the threshold" has become more profitable, but does not prove these coins can last longer.
Looking at new coins now, the reference value of the instant rally after graduation has actually decreased. I'm more interested in the 10–30 minutes after BOOST ends: whether transactions can continue to expand, whether new buyers are still entering, and whether prices can hold the migration zone. Once automatic buying stops, trading volume shrinks rapidly and prices immediately fall back; the earlier excitement is most likely just a front-race around mechanism rewards.
More diplomas don't mean more good projects.
Do you think this is a true MEME revival, or Pump.fun have used a new mechanism to "make the graduation rate look nice"?Last night, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, and the indices weakened across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 5.33%, with storage and optical communication sectors under broad pressure.
Many people still simply attribute the decline to liquidity. Looking at Bain Capital's moves reveals the thinking of large funds. They took over Kioxia at a low point years ago—a trade that was initially a loss—but rode the current storage bull market to gradually exit, realizing huge profits. After the chips were distributed, Kioxia's stock price was halved, and retail investors who bought at the peak were completely trapped.
The hardware sector has already entered a downward cycle. Market narratives shift quickly; when no positive catalysts are found, negative factors are continuously mined to keep pushing prices down.
The global storage sector experienced a synchronized sell-off, with timing highly coincident. $MU and $SKHY both peaked in late June. Technology growth funds from China, the US, and South Korea simultaneously exited the sector, and valuations in this high-level sector began to be digested continuously.
Insights from the Korean market's panic sell-off:
This large-scale liquidation in the Korean stock market is not accidental; multiple risks combined to form a death spiral.
1. The index structure is extremely distorted, with over half of KOSPI's weight tied to Samsung and $SKHY. As the storage rally weakens, there is no safe-haven sector in the entire market;
2. Leverage tools are excessively loosened, with 2x leveraged ETFs on individual stocks, broker financing, and short-term credit channels running in parallel. Young retail investors heavily leveraged their positions to enter the market;
3. Foreign capital's concentrated selling combined with local interest rate hikes, mid-cycle regulatory tightening of margin rules, triggered a chain reaction of mass forced liquidations, opening a negative feedback loop of selling more as prices fall.
During the same period, the market showed clear divergence. Overseas storage giants continued to collapse, while Changxin showed independent resilience. The core logic lies in the independent pricing expectations brought by domestic substitution, and passive foreign capital allocation is expected to follow.
However, this should be viewed objectively; it does not mean all domestic tech stocks will strengthen. Most are just rebounding, and only a few with core logic have sustained upward potential.
Discussing practical strategies based on the market: the Nasdaq has officially entered an adjustment range, so operate cautiously (many are trapped, selectively staying inactive).
Currently, capital preference has clearly shifted toward high-dividend defensive assets. The sector will continue to split internally. Previously purely speculative stocks without earnings support will find it hard to recover. Many are crowding to speculate on Changxin, but in my view, the current cost-performance ratio is not advantageous, so there is no need to blindly pile in.
Patience is most important in a volatile market. Do not open new positions lightly; wait for positions with better safety margins before acting.
$SKHY
$SNDK$BTC $ETH $SNDK 9 votes in favor of keeping rates unchanged, 3 in favor of raising rates. This is the first time since 2016 that three policy hike proposals have appeared in alignment. The chairs of the three regional Federal Reserves—Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas—have jointly voted to raise rates. A quarter of the committee members are calling for an immediate rate hike. What about Walsh? He is more hawkish than anyone else, saying this is not a pause, but just the beginning of a policy adjustment. When necessary and appropriate, they will raise rates without hesitation. Inflation cannot be solved in nine weeks. In plain language, I know it should be raised, but I just won't. The market reaction was very impressive The Dow plunged 1,153 points, marking its largest single-day drop in 15 months. The Nasdaq fell for six consecutive days and entered a correction phase. Philadelphia Semiconductor plunged 5.33%. Nvidia and Tesla were all under pressure. U.S. stocks were in despair, but Bitcoin stayed steady above 64,000. Gold broke through 4,100. Is this abnormal? Too unusual. Normally, hawkish signals mean a stronger dollar means risk assets are under pressure. Gold and Bitcoin, these non-yielding assets, should be drained. But last night, the opposite happened: the dollar didn't rise, US Treasury yields surged and then retreated. Funds didn't flow to the dollar, but to gold and crypto An independent precious metals trader said something like: Although Walsh's overall stance is quite hawkish, precious metals are leading the asset rebound. This is not risk avoidance, it's a position reversal. The market is voting with its feet, voting distrust to Warsh's hawkish mouth. You say you're hawkish, fine, then raise rates? You don't increase it. You say you want to fight inflation. Inflation is already 4.1, yet you're still holding your ground. You say this is just the beginning. The market has been hearing this kind of nonsense for five years Microsoft Q4 operating cash flow was $55.4 billion: How to interpret free cash flow after capital expenditure doubled?
The cash flow statement shows that Microsoft's FY2026 Q4 operating cash flow was $55.441 billion, up about 30% from $42.647 billion in the same period last year. Cash purchases of property and equipment for the quarter amounted to USD 35.802 billion. Based on a simple calculation of "operating cash flow minus cash capital expenditure," the remaining amount is approximately USD 19.639 billion. This calculation is convenient for comparison but is not a GAAP measure separately named by the company in a press release.
Operating cash flow exceeding net profit cannot be attributed solely to profitability. Unearned revenue increased by $22.428 billion, accounts receivable increased by $21.084 billion in cash outflow, and accounts payable increased by $2.365 billion; Depreciation, amortization, and other non-cash adjustments were $11.022 billion. Large enterprises concentrated contract signing, invoicing, and collections at the end of the fiscal year, making Q4 distinctly seasonal, making it unsuitable for direct annualization.
Capital expenditure is growing even faster. Q4 cash purchases of property and equipment rose from $17.079 billion to $35.802 billion, and full-year sales increased from $64.551 billion to $115.948 billion. These payments serve cloud, AI, first-party products, and global data centers, but the company does not break down every dollar by Azure, Copilot, or internal R&D, and the article does not refer to all expenditures as single product costs.
As of the end of June, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $76.843 billion, compared to $94.565 billion in the same period last year. Liquidity remains substantial, but cash capital expenditures, investment purchases, buybacks, and dividends throughout the year are all using cash. At the end of the period, short-term and long-term debt totaled approximately 40.294 billion USD, of which 9.227 billion USD matured within one year; When analyzing net cash, both types of debt should be included.
Net properties and equipment on the balance sheet rose to $313.076 billion, compared to $204.966 billion last year; Accumulated depreciation also rose to USD 118.691 billion. After new assets are put into service, depreciation continues to be added to costs in subsequent quarters. Therefore, strong operating margins this quarter do not mean that FY2027 absorbed all the costs of new capacity; future monitoring of utilization and depreciation growth should be observed.
In terms of shareholder returns, the company returned $10.2 billion in Q4 through dividends and buybacks; The cash flow statement shows $4.579 billion in buybacks and $6.758 billion in cash dividends. The rounded total amount in a press release may differ in time or classification from the details of the cash flow statement, and should be presented according to their original standards, rather than being forced into the same figure.
So Microsoft's cash story isn't a choice between 'good cash flow' or 'high capital expenditure.' A more accurate description is: core business and year-end receipts boosted operating cash flow, AI and cloud expansion pushed cash capital expenditure to new highs, and the balance sheet accumulated a larger future depreciation base. The next step is to see whether the revenue, gross profit, and cash recovery from the new capacity can continue to cover the investment.The selling pressure in 7 days was 415 million, and today alone, 198 million yuan was released from staking. $HYPE faced the largest single-day staking unstaking in Hyperliquid's history.
1. In the next 7 days, 6.93 million HYPE (about 415 million) will be unstaked. Of the 198 million yuan queued today, 120 million have already been released, with a large portion already transferred into CEXs and ready to be sold at any time.
2. The market is likely also quite shaken by selling pressure: HYPE has fallen from its high of 76.67 and has since retraced 24%. But don't panic too much, because part of this potential selling pressure probably belongs to Grayscale. They need to switch their tokens from "staking" to "liquid custody" status for institutions to put them into the ETF shell, not to sell.
3. And honestly, to this day, Hyperliquid remains a rare project that allows 99% of protocol fees on-chain to buy back tokens. So even now, with massive unstaking of chips, some institutions are doing the opposite—Staking 32.9 million at FalconX-linked addresses.
4. My judgment: 54 is a key support level. If you want to trade swing trading, consider entering at 54~55, and stop loss if it falls below 52.四大潜力妖币分析！
分别判断
ON：具备强妖币潜力。 Alpha现货锚、合约成交和大户仓位结构都最强，但近30日已经上涨267%，属于成熟行情，不是潜伏币。守住0.240并收复0.300、0.328，才可能再测0.36876和0.40422。
HOLO：四币中最值得跟踪的新启动。 价格+20%、OI+21%、成交扩张1.68倍，费率接近零且合约/现货仅3.4倍，属于相对健康的现货点火。突破0.089并保持现货放量，可升级为逼空/主升；跌破0.070则点火失败。
BTW：妖币属性仍在，但不是新的前主升。 它曾从低点上涨约1138%，现在距高点回撤60%。当前价格下跌、OI上升、账户和大户持仓均严重偏多，属于多头接刀结构。需要重新站上0.10至0.118才能修复；跌破0.0726容易继续清算。
CROSS：只有静态潜力。 市值、流通率和历史涨幅位置尚可，但现货仅19万U、合约163万U，OI下降、成交严重萎缩。突破0.104且现货、合约、OI同步放大后，才算真正点火。
所以要分两个维度看：
当前最强妖币结构：ON
最新鲜、赔率结构更合理的前主升候选：HOLO
高风险修复观察：BTW
暂未启动：CROSS OpenAI's ARR surged explosively in July, significantly narrowing the gap with Anthropic
Here comes today's most noteworthy news. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar made it clear at an internal employee meeting on Wednesday that July's annualized recurring revenue (ARR) has already surpassed the total for the entire second quarter.
Based on TickerTrends data: Q2 three-month ARR rose from 28.8 billion at the end of April to 37.3 billion at the end of June, a net increase of about 11.4 billion. Conservatively speaking, the net ARR increase in July alone exceeded the total increase in Q2, indicating that OpenAI's ARR has rapidly surged past $50 billion and is currently chasing Anthropic.
A more aggressive interpretation is that revenue in July alone exceeded the combined total of three months in Q2 (about 8.25 billion), so ARR is heading straight for 100 billion—this figure is a bit alarming, so let's look at it conservatively.
The growth drivers are very clear:
- The GPT-5.6 series models have been implemented
- New enterprise product ChatGPT Work launched
- Codex coding tool users surged sharply in July
Combined with the large model price wars discussed in the past two weeks (Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Cursor all loosening quotas and doubling quotas), enterprise adoption has entered a scenario-based, multi-model engineering phase. Short-term gross margins will definitely be under pressure, but in the medium to long term, whether token consumption can explode is the key.
The market is growing, and OpenAI is accelerating its catch-up this time, which is worth keeping an eye on.
$OPENAI $ANTHROPIC #HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in one week
$ACH
The fastest way to lose money this time isn't to misjudge the direction, but to mistake the rebound for a reversal.
ACH jumped 20% in one day, falling from 0.00 to 0.01, with trading volume surging to 2.9 billion. The common mistake retail investors make is seeing such a rally and thinking "an opportunity has arrived," but never asking: Who pulled the money in? Where do you go after the pull?
**The Real Issue**
It's not that ACH rose 20%, but that the whole market is shrinking. In July, only 150 VCs participated in crypto financing, the lowest since November 2020, down 87% from the 2022 peak. Liquidity is nearly dried up, and funds will only cluster together in BTC, ETH, SOL. ACH is a countercoin driven by short-term sentiment, not institutional consensus. No matter how large the trading volume is, without sustained inflow, the price is like a castle on the sand.
**Who is the capital selecting**
Money is not divided equally. It first flows to mainstream coins, narrative hotspots, and storytelling sectors. ACH's rise is just a chance for the market to give weak assets a "last flash." Truly smart money won't be heavily invested here. Retail investors chase in, thinking they've gotten a bargain, but in reality, they're falling into a liquidity trap.
**My Judgment**
What ACH should focus on right now is not price fluctuations, but whether it can regain market attention. Without attention, there is no fluidity. At this stage, first trust in liquidity, then look at the narrative. Without capital to reprice, no matter how full the story is, it's just noise.
Risk Boundary: If ACH's volume cannot remain high in the next 48 hours, the price will most likely give back most of its gains. Don't treat the rebound as a trend.Recently, the crypto market has continued to weaken, and many people have begun to worry that some exchanges may face operational risks. Whether to be cautious of high-risk exchanges has become a hot topic in the industry.
From my long-term observation, I have a judgment dimension: I keep an eye on the platform coins' trends:
During a normal downturn, if the platform token drops sharply against the trend, extra caution is needed; But now, the opposite is happening: the overall market is bearish, and the tokens on major exchanges have only dropped little. This divergence is actually unusual. I've dug into the underlying movements, so I won't go into detail for now.
One thing is certain: all exchanges are extremely dependent on overall market liquidity. Normally, shrinking market trading volume directly impacts exchange revenue. This is just my personal way of filtering risky platforms; not all platforms will have problems.$ETH 1910, still playing.
The number of people borrowing money on the chain has dropped by 90%. Previously, the more they bounced, the more they borrowed, but now they stopped. Takers sell more than they buy, and active buying volume has also shrunk.
But interestingly, the position started to increase again, and the positions I had previously cut off came back.
When the price bounces, the spot is running, and the contract is accepted. The money hasn't come in, so the position is returned first.
I don't get who would take the bounce up. If you trust them, the money is gone.
#eth $ETHBreaking news! $LITE Management Dialogue Sends a Key Signal: Can We Still Trust "Light"? To start with the conclusion: it's not that "Guang" is out of the loop, but that Guang Communications' profit logic is shifting. In the past, the market was speculated on EML shortages, price hikes, and capacity competition; The market is now worried that Lumentum has already expanded production aggressively, copper cables haven't hit a wall immediately, and CPO may even be delayed—since supply is increasing and next-generation technology is delayed, has the optical communication hype run out? The latest management update from Lumentum gave the answer: the hype isn't over, but you can't use the same logic anymore. By the end of 2027, 800G and 1.6T pluggable optical modules will remain the main sources of revenue; After the end of 2027, as copper cables become less cost-effective, CPO and high-power continuous optical lasers may take over. Therefore, U.S. Stock Investment Network believes the real issue is not whether AI still lacks light, but whether Lumentum can smoothly move from this EML shortage to the next high-power CW laser and CPO cycle. First, the source: PhotonCap, a photonics technology research institute, recently communicated with Kathryn Ta, Vice President of Investor Relations at Lumentum, and PhotonCap supplemented the technical analysis based on this. The following content is compiled from third-party communication notes and is not a verbatim statement from management. 1. What exactly is Lumentum? There are thousands of GPs in the data center🚨 Same AI spending. Two completely different market reactions. Microsoft surged. Meta sank. The difference wasn't how much they spent—it was how quickly that spending is turning into profits. Microsoft showed that its AI investments are already paying off. Azure keeps accelerating, Copilot adoption is growing, and enterprise demand remains incredibly strong. Investors see a clear path from AI spending to future cash flow. Meta, on the other hand, is still investing aggressively. Its advertising🚨 The biggest irony in crypto? Bitcoin became what it was created to replace. Bitcoin was invented so people would never have to trust banks again. Today, one of its most popular investment products is a spot ETF, and roughly 80% of U.S. spot ETF Bitcoin is held by a single custodian. That's the paradox. The technology was built for decentralization, but mass adoption is happening through traditional financial institutions. It's not necessarily a bad thing—it has brought billions in institution#Fed's three votes for rate hike, tonight's PCE becomes the new focus
1. Fresh interpretation of the Fed meeting
The early morning policy meeting ultimately chose to keep rates unchanged, but the internal division was particularly large. Among the 12 voting members, as many as 3 directly demanded an immediate 25 basis point hike, with hawkish voices stronger than the market expected.
The chairman's speech did not soften at all, repeatedly focusing on inflation, clearly stating that whether to raise rates further depends entirely on tonight's PCE price data. This is why the entire crypto community is currently hesitant to open positions casually.
Simply put: PCE is the Fed's most important inflation indicator. If tonight's data is high, it confirms inflation is uncontrollable, making a September rate hike highly likely, and mainstream coins will probably face pressure and decline; if the data cools down, short-term easing expectations will return, giving ETH and BTC the confidence to rebound.
2. Current status combined with Ethereum daily chart
Taking ETH daily chart as an example, current price is 1915, with the daily middle band at 1880 considered the short-term lifeline, and the price is just slightly oscillating above this middle band.
The upper Bollinger band at 1968 is the first strong resistance, and the SAR point at 1977 is still above the price. The large cycle has not fully turned bullish; the current slight rise is entirely supported by market bets on positive PCE data.
KDJ has reached a high level and is about to turn down, indicating weak momentum for bulls. If tonight's PCE data surprises negatively, it could easily retest the 1880 support, and if broken, it will head straight to the lower Bollinger band at 1791.
During this period, I can clearly feel that the market is completely driven by macro news, technical analysis is ineffective, and the real direction will only emerge after the data release.
3. My personal view
I hold spot positions myself and haven't dared to add positions these days; this is a typical wait-and-see market before data.
1. Three officials voting for a rate hike is not trivial, showing the Fed's extremely low tolerance for inflation internally. Don't blindly go long; downside risks are hidden.
2. There are two ways to respond to tonight's PCE: if data exceeds expectations and rises, reduce positions to hedge and don't stubbornly hold through the pullback; if data is below expectations, stabilize above 1968 before slightly adding positions.
3. The 1791 support at the bottom is the last defense line. As long as it doesn't break, the long-term layout logic remains. If data is negative and breaks through, the short-term trend weakens directly, so control losses timely.
In short, this is a data-driven market with high uncertainty. Heavy positions mean handing over initiative to news, which is low cost-effectiveness.
Just casually sharing my position strategy with everyone
Are there friends like me holding ETH spot and not daring to move positions now? What do you predict about tonight's PCE data—will it be hot or cooling?
If data is negative and the market retests 1880 support, do you plan to buy the dip and add positions or reduce and exit? Share your response plans in the comments.
$ETH The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but policy expectations may still fluctuate, and changes in the interest rate path will directly affect risk asset sentiment
Currently, the risk of high-leverage positions has increased, and the market remains in a period of high volatility. It is best to avoid chasing gains, selling losses, and excessive leverage
I believe the current market is not simply about rising or falling, but rather about finding a new capital balance point. While everyone is paying attention to price changes, they should also pay attention to institutional capital flows and macro event changes in $BTC Recently, I strongly feel that a turning point in the crypto market is approaching. Here is my core logic:
1. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins himself strongly advocates the CLARITY Act, and the Trump administration as a whole is paving the way for the U.S. crypto RWA sector. For the remainder of this year, the AI sector is likely to enter a period of consolidation, with crypto becoming the main focus for the U.S. and the overall direction already clear.
2. The August bill is basically unlikely to be implemented, with the biggest obstacle being the Trump family's involvement in crypto-related interests. Even if the legal proposal is temporarily blocked, the implementation of tokenized stocks remains unaffected: DTC has obtained a three-year pilot exemption letter from the SEC, allowing US and US Treasury stocks to be compliantly listed on-chain to exchanges; The core function of the CLARITY Act is to define the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, clarify the jurisdiction of digital commodities, stablecoins, and derivatives, and determine whether institutions can conduct their business in compliance.
3. Once the law is implemented and combined with DTC pilots, a single platform can legally integrate stocks, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and various derivatives, share margin accounts, enable 24-hour trading to connect DeFi, and enable global circulation of physical assets on-chain. Compliant exchanges, public blockchains carrying tokenized stock TVL, and on-chain infrastructure will all see their valuations revalued.
4. The value logic of public blockchains needs to be re-examined: In the first two cycles, derivatives like Perpdex had high premiums, essentially because junk projects were rampant and funds clustered around certain targets. Now, platforms like Backpack are starting to invest in on-chain stockbrokerage, with the core competition being the scale of asset issuance on-chain, profiting through service fees and business revenue sharing, with models highly consistent with traditional brokerages. The TVL of on-chain stocks directly determines the underlying value of the public chain. If hundreds of billions of traditional assets flood in, the valuation ceiling for tokens will be completely opened.
Additionally, according to reliable sources in the US, the bill is highly likely to take effect in the fourth quarter of this year, with the market officially launching the main rally in the first quarter of next year. No need to rush to bottom-fish; just wait and see for positions in August and September. The probability of favorable measures being implemented in August is low, so contrarian positioning is more reliable.
Today, the market experienced a panic-driven plunge, with many people being forced out and reducing positions. However, after a bottoming out with increased volume, the market has rebounded. Next, focus on the Fed's decision volatility. I originally planned to hold positions in the 130-150 range of SK Hynix, but now I have abandoned the profit expectation above 200 and shifted to the more flexible crypto sector. The timing is ripe. #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight Market Watch: Confusing signals from OpenAI's revenue data, the real lifeline of the storage sector
OpenAI CFO Sarah Flair stated that the annualized ARR for July alone has already surpassed the total revenue for Q2, and Q2 itself already performed well.
Here's a key concept: ARR is calculated by directly multiplying the current month's revenue by 12 for annualized projection. For example, if I make 10,000 U in a single day trading cryptocurrency, the annualized increase is 3.65 million U. Monthly ARR exceeding quarterly total revenue is an easily achievable result at the statistical level and does not directly equate to explosive business growth.
On the contrary, some market opinions suggest that the company's release of this statement may indirectly reflect that the actual financial data may fall short of expectations.
A key reminder to traders in the storage sector who are bottom-fishing: be sure to closely monitor changes in OpenAI's real revenue, as this is the core indicator of this storage market.
The core driver behind this round of soaring storage chip prices is the frenzied stockpiling of AI data centers, which has driven up supply and demand. OpenAI is the largest client in the data center sector, with upstream computing power procurement and capital expenditure heavily dependent on its business expansion. The entire chain exhibits a clear pattern of capital circulation.
Once OpenAI's revenue growth slows down, the chain will pass on to cloud providers' capital expenditures, shaking the logic of storage demand.
It's wise to keep cash ready and wait and see; if Oracle experiences a performance blowdown, the market will be flooded with opportunities.
Disclaimer: This is solely a market logic inference and does not constitute investment advice.⚠️ Don't be fooled by Bitcoin $BTC! Altcoins are experiencing a cold period, with 71% of coins completely lagging behind!
Data shows that among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, only 29% are currently above the 50-day moving average! Compare to the severely battered Nasdaq (47% above the 50-day moving average), the breadth of altcoin markets is simply dismal!
The current situation is extremely harsh: BTC and ETH are holding up the market on top, while the vast majority of altcoins below are trading sideways with heavy losses. Although Ethereum's recent outperformance of BTC has left the market with a glimmer of illusion of a "knockoff season," the Clarity Act was suspended by Congress, directly removing the biggest regulatory catalyst. Expert reminder: Big money is still hedged ahead of the Fed's decision and macro data. Before new capital enters the market, never blindly buy those altcoins that have dropped in massive volume—liquidity drainage is hard to climb! 📉🥀 #山寨币 #BTC #以太坊 #加密市场分析The South Korean stock market has experienced multiple circuit breakers this year. If it happened once or twice, it could be seen as deleveraging, but with so many times and right at critical points, it's hard not to suspect targeted harvesting.
In fact, starting from the second quarter earnings reports this year, the narrative around tech stocks has shifted towards structural, vertical, and capital rotation themes, which leads to small index fluctuations but large individual stock volatility.
Moreover, this situation is likely to persist for 1-2 years, and such volatility is a normal phenomenon in financial markets. Looking back at financial history, there have been many periods of high volatility and high risk.
Learning to control risk and adjust positions is an essential skill to ensure you don't get liquidated; staying in the game is a basic survival rule.
However, the South Korean government does not impose restrictions but rather promotes this. Under such high volatility, retail investors suffer the most losses, while institutions, large investors, and capitalists can basically walk away unscathed.
Actually, for the South Korean government, they can tolerate ordinary people being harvested, but they cannot tolerate capital outflows after harvesting and public opposition.
Therefore, South Korea plans to limit retail investors' leveraged ETF exposure and set investment caps.
But even so, it cannot hide the fact that South Korea is one of the important blood bags for capital harvesting and dollar sucking, second only to Japan, but South Korea lacks Japan's resilience.
Under the nominal deleveraging in South Korea, the losses fall on the interests of the common people while the wealthy capitalists' pockets grow. The people are like chives, harvested endlessly, one crop after another.
Friends, what you need to be alert to is to prepare for a future phase of high volatility, control your positions well, and manage risks. The better the market, the more cautious you should be!一、当日核心热点新闻梳理（行情底层催化） 1. 美联储7月FOMC决议落地（本周最大宏观事件） 北京时间7月30日凌晨，美联储维持基准利率3.50%-3.75%不变，符合市场主流预期。但投票出现罕见分歧，12名委员里3人支持加息25bp，释放明确鹰派信号。主席沃什表态保留后续进一步收紧政策的选项，拒绝释放宽松预期。决议落地后10年期美债收益率上行突破4.67%，压制全球成长类风险资产估值。 市场核心矛盾：利率维持不变属于中性结果，但内部大量鹰派委员，打消市场对于年内快速降息的幻想，BTC难以获得流动性宽松驱动。 2. 地缘风险持续扰动大类资产传导逻辑 中东冲突再度升级，伊朗袭击美军基地、美沙联军空袭行动持续，国际原油反弹走高。市场形成传导链：油价上涨→通胀预期抬升→美联储维持高利率预期，传统认知里“战乱避险买入加密资产”逻辑失效，地缘利多原油，间接压制BTC。 3. 美股科技板块结构性分化，风险情绪外溢 存储赛道延续暴跌行情，美光、闪迪、SK海力士持续杀跌；微软财报大超预期，但Meta业绩指引偏弱，AI巨头普遍面临高额资本开支压力。市场开始重新定价AI企业capex回报，风险偏好收缩，In 2018, BTC fell from $19,800 to $3,237, with a maximum drawdown of about 84%.
Buy at the lowest point: Returns about 121% after one year
In 2022, BTC fell from $69,000 to $15,600, with a maximum drawdown of about 77%.
Buy at the lowest point: Returns about 131% after one year
In this round, BTC fell from 124,800 to a minimum of 58,000, with a maximum drawdown of only 53.5%. The drawdown is getting smaller, and the odds at the bottom are likely to be decreasing
If you want to carve a boat to find a sword,
Assuming this round can replicate the rebound from the previous two rounds, buy 58,000
A year later, the price was about $128,000 to $134,000
This is roughly a return to the previous high near $BTC The Federal Reserve didn't raise interest rates, but I shorted BTC near $64,500.
The short position did pay off because I believe there will be a market shift by August.
The four words most likely to be misinterpreted tonight are "maintain rates."
The Fed did keep rates at 3.5%–3.75%, which looks like no rate hike, so risk assets should breathe a sigh of relief.
But the real key is the voting result afterward: 9 votes in favor of maintaining, 3 votes directly calling for a 25 basis point rate hike.
What does that mean?
On the surface, the Fed didn’t continue to step on the brakes, but at the table, three people already think the brakes haven’t been applied hard enough.
The Fed not raising rates is theoretically positive, but after BTC surged near $64,640, it didn’t immediately rally; by the time I opened my position, it had fallen back near $64,500.
That’s exactly why I tried shorting.What caught me most was that $SOL managed to break into the top ranks today, yet its price barely changed.
The spot price is only at $73.97, and in 24 hours, it's just +0.65%. The highs and lows fluctuated between $74.53 and $72.32.
Such a fluctuation shouldn't have such a strong presence.
But its spot trading volume has already reached $114.56M, and the contract is even more exaggerated, surging straight to $1308.09M.
A 11.4x contract/spot transaction ratio doesn't look like the kind of 'everyone slowly buys spot stocks.'
It was more like many people in this position trying out directions, with no one willing to accept the other.
I just finished showering and came out to take a look. Doudou was lying by the keyboard and was even calmer than I was. I was honestly impressed.
Because the most counterintuitive point in this market is right here: the price hasn't formed a strong emotional bullish candlestick, but the contract side is already heating up unnaturally.
The funding rate is only +0.0071%, which isn't outrageous.
This shows that bulls are not in a state where they are squeezed to the point of burning.
But with open interest at 8,429,877 SOL, it shows that the market position is actually quite large, and no one has left.
So I would interpret today's $SOL as a "high participation, low shift" market.
It's not that no one is watching it.
But too many people watched, which ironically disrupted the trend.
I generally don't like to follow this kind of structure.
Honestly, a truly strong coin feels smooth; even if you don't dare to go in, you can still tell it's charging.
$SOL Now I feel like the hype is enough, but the direction hasn't been clearly defined yet.
The easiest thing to do is not to immediately fly one-sided, but to first wash the anxious person back and forth 😅
My attitude is clear: I'm just watching and not chasing.
If spot volume can keep up later, and contracts don't keep playing out the contract themselves, I'd be more willing to take a look.
The market is changing; what works today might be wrong tomorrow $SOL #SOL