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$BTC Fed's decision tonight — crypto holds its breath
30% chance of an interest rate hike. This is the most unpredictable FOMC in years.
The decision will be made at 2 a.m. tomorrow. The market is deeply divided: ~70% of forecasts remain unchanged, ~30% forecast a 25 basis point increase.
Surprise factor: New president Warsh. He eliminated the direction of the future, forcing the market to "detoxify" its dependence on the central bank. An RBS economist called it the most unpredictable Fed decision in 20 years.
Two pulls: June CPI cools in favor of staying unchanged, but escalating oil prices as Middle East tensions increase inflation risks — Citadel Securities and some institutions are betting on interest rate hikes to reinforce Warsh's credibility.
BTC fell first — $63,000, an 11-day low.
· Remain unchanged + moderate: macro pressure dissipates, aiming for $65,000
· Unexpected increase: risk avoidance trend increases, $60,000 threatened
There is no dot plot tonight, no SEP. Just a quote from Warsh. Crypto isn't waiting for interest rate numbers — it's the "personality" of the new Fed.#美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员:微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期,存储股剧烈波动 $SOL $ETH $BTC Fed Decision Tonight — Crypto Holds Its Breath
30% chance of a hike. This is the most uncertain FOMC in years.
Decision due at 2 AM tomorrow. Markets are deeply divided: ~70% expect a pause, ~30% price in a 25bps hike.
Wild card: new Chair Warsh. He's scrapped forward guidance, forcing markets to "detox" from central bank dependency. A RBS economist calls it the most uncertain Fed decision in 20 years.
Two forces pulling: June CPI cooling supports a pause, but Middle East-driven oil prices reignite inflation risks — Citadel Securities and others are betting on a hike to cement Warsh's credibility.
BTC has already sold off — $63,000, an 11-day low.
· Pause + dovish: macro pressure lifts, eyes on $65,000
· Hike surprise: risk-off accelerates ETF outflows, $60,000 in play
No dot plot tonight, no SEP. Just one word from Warsh. Crypto isn't waiting for the rate — it's waiting for the new Fed's "character."#美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 $ETH $SOL Friends, the peace talks between the United States and Iran have fallen through again, crude oil prices are rising again, and oil prices are falling sharply! Gold and silver fall $XAU 1. Core Events During Wednesday's European and US sessions, international oil prices suddenly strengthened, with $BZ WTI and Brent crude both rising over 6%, $CL WTI crude closing at $84.31 per barrel. The trigger was Iran's sudden attack on a U.S. military base in Jordan, and Trump's public statement of commitment to tough retaliation. Although all missiles were intercepted, the market's previous bets on a ceasefire were completely dashed. 2. Geopolitical Background This is not an isolated event. On Tuesday, the U.S. military joined forces with Saudi airstrikes on multiple armed strongholds in Iraq, retaliating against more than 30 drone attacks launched by pro-Iranian militants. Ongoing friction among multiple parties has laid the foundation for a surge in oil prices. 3. Driving Logic and Risks Although the missile strike did not affect crude oil production capacity or shipping channels, the market is pricing in ahead of the risk of conflict spreading and blockage in the Strait of Hormuz. The market driven by geopolitical factors is volatile and uncertain. If there is no further escalation, bullish sentiment is likely to dissipate, and oil prices may surge and then retreat. 4. Summary: The short-term trend of crude oil largely depends on the actual actions of the US and Iran; do not blindly chase highs. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard On the surface, the market appears to be SPCX rebounding against the trend on the big drop in the AI sector, but the real pricing disagreement is whether funds are confirming the bottom or just a passive defense before earnings reports. Key fact: SPCX hit an intraday low of 107.01, then rebounded above 111, with the AI sector experiencing a significant decline that day. The author believes that if the price holds above 110, then 107 may be a deliberate move to clear stop-losses, and expects a rebound to the 130-140 range before the earnings report (April 8), but with limited upside potential. How events change market structure: - The coin shows resilience during sharp sector drops, indicating active buying or market makers defending the market rather than pure retail investors chasing the highs. - 107 has become a key short-term support. If confirmed as a washout stop-loss action, some liquidity below has been partially digested, and subsequent selling pressure may ease. - However, note: resistance to decline does not equal a reversal. If only existing funds are concentrated in allocation before the earnings report, the rebound is limited by total liquidity and sector sentiment. Pricing impact and transmission logic: - For BTC/ETH: As a small alt, SPCX's trend does not directly affect large-cap coins. However, if the altcoin sector as a whole is pressured by the AI narrative, BTC will remain relatively strong due to safe-haven capital inflows, while ETH may remain volatile due to lower correlation between DeFi/Alt narratives. - Risk appetite: If SPCX's counter-trend performance continues, it may boost local confidence in knockoffs in the short term, but earnings must confirm growth logic; otherwise, it will be speculative. 🚨 The whole internet was baffled! The storage sector is piling up at the bottom with bottom-fishing orders, and buyers looking incredibly heavy. Why can't prices rally no matter what?
Those who have been watching $SNDK SanDisk, $SKHY Hynix, and $MU perpetual contracts these past two days have all fallen into the same huge confusion:
Below the order book, there are countless buy orders waiting to bottom-fish. Countless people place many orders, waiting for stabilization and rebound. The daily turnover reaches tens of billions of U, making it extremely lively. However, the market keeps falling, and the rebound is fleeting, trapping bottom-fishing funds layer by layer halfway up the mountain.
Many people intuitively understand: when there are enough buyers, prices will inevitably rise. In this round of storage crashes, this common sense completely fails. Today, we'll dig deep into the underlying logic. Once you understand it, you'll see why orders are like mountains and prices keep falling.
1. The Core Truth: Pending orders are "passive waiting," while upward gains always rely on "active order sweeping"
What determines price movements has never been the number of buy orders placed in the order book, but whether there is capital actively pushing upward.
1. Currently, all bottom-fishing orders are limit orders: I only buy when the price drops to a certain level, and I absolutely won't enter until the price drops to that level. This is a passive buying style of waiting for a rabbit to buy the stock.
2. During the decline, a continuous stream of sell orders emerge at market prices: institutions fleeing from profits at highs, long positions at high positions liquidation, panic stop-loss orders, and selling at all costs. A single sell order at market price directly swallows all support orders at the current level, naturally pushing prices downward step by step.
For example: a buy one with a bottom-fishing order worth over 100 million USD, no one actively engages in the upper sell or sell two suppression orders; they only passively buy and dump orders from below, unable to hold the trend at all.
Passive order support is just a "psychological support illusion"; active buying is the only hard currency driving the price up. This is also the fundamental reason why, despite the deposit system falling for half a month and the continuous bottom-fishing crowd, there has never been a decent reversal.
2. A massive amount of "fake order brokerage" mixed in with bottom-fishing scams, specifically creating scams with ample buying demand
In highly volatile US perpetual contracts like SanDisk and SK Hynix, the main order book scheme is used to the extreme:
1. Inducing long contractions to cover shipments
Placing huge buying orders at key support levels creates the illusion that "big funds are holding the bottom," making off-exchange retail investors hesitant to continue shorting and attracting hesitant bottom-fishers to enter early. The main players placed support orders to stabilize sentiment while splitting small orders to continuously sell chips. When the momentum of following the crowd and bottom-fishing weakened, they immediately unlocked the support orders and started a new round of plunges.
2. Frequently placing and canceling orders to test selling pressure
Large buy orders are repeatedly placed and instantly withdrawn, not actually executed, but only used to gauge the intensity of market panic selling. Once selling pressure far exceeds the support momentum, the support orders disappear instantly, and the heavy buying interest in retail investors' eyes instantly vanishes.
The "full-screen bottom-fishing orders" we see are half real retail investors' placing orders, and half are fake orders from major players, with significant inflatment.
3. Trend Crushes All: Structural short selling pressure far exceeds retail investors' bottom-fishing volume
This round of storage plungement is not a short-term emotional sell-off, but a certainty bear market driven by industry cycles, chip structure, and capital resonance, with sustained bear selling pressure:
1. The logic of an AI storage bull market has been completely disproven
The logic of high valuations driven by earlier hype around HBM, storage shortages, and unlimited AI capacity expansion collapsed; overcapacity, the strong breakthrough of domestic Changxin, and cloud vendors' capital expenditures falling short of expectations led institutions collectively lowering long-term profit forecasts. Large-scale portfolio reductions are medium- to long-term actions, not short-term sell-offs and exits.
2. High-level leveraged long positions are forced by chain liquidations, creating a negative cycle
In the early bull market, massive leveraged long positions accumulate. Every step the price drops triggers a batch of forced long liquidations, and liquidated orders are unconditional market selling and are the most unsolvable force for bears. Retail investors manually place orders to buy the bottom, completely unable to withstand the pressure from programmatic closing and sell-off.
3. Cross-market capital consensus bearish
OKX contract turnover proves that billions of U funds are pouring in to short storage, with stable and generous profits from short selling, and funds continuously joining the short camp. Bottom-fishing is the sporadic and hesitant behavior of retail investors, while short selling is the consensus among institutions, quant traders, and professional traders. The scale is completely on a completely different level.
4. Bottom-fishing funds have a fatal flaw: lack of unity and inability to form synergy
No matter how many orders are placed at the bottom, it's still a scattered mess:
• Some people buy at the 3% drop, while others wait to enter at the halved position. Prices are extremely dispersed, making it impossible to form a concentrated defense at the same level;
• Some bottom-fishing stocks that entered during the early downturn were stuck, with some directly cutting losses and turning into short selling, shifting from bullish buying to short selling;
• The vast majority of bottom-fishing funds are short-term rebounds; once a small rebound fails to sustain the rally, they immediately take profits and exit, lacking the willingness to lock in positions long-term to stabilize the market.
Simply put: bears have a unified target to push downwards, while bulls are fighting separately and waiting to pick up bargains, so naturally they can't hold the support.
5. Harsh conclusions for those still waiting to buy the dip
1. Heavy support sheets are not equal to the bottom
In a downtrend, all support levels are meant to be broken. No matter how many orders are placed in the order book, without active capital attacking, support is worthless.
2. Beginners die chasing highs, experienced traders die by bottom-fishing—this is perfectly proven in the storage sector
SanDisk's price was nearly halved in just one month. With every round of decline, a large number of people felt the price had hit the mark and placed orders layer upon layer, only to be deeply trapped. Cheap prices have never been a reason to buy; trend reversals are.
3. A true bottom signal is definitely not a rise in bottom-fishing orders
It must occur: active sweeping with increased volume to swallow all suppressed orders above, forced liquidation and selling pressure exhaustion, institutional bears taking profits and exiting, and daily-level stop-falling candlesticks forming. Before that, all bottom-tier support orders are just fleeting moments during the decline.
Do you understand now? The crowd you see as a crowd of bottom-fishing is just the most prominent backdrop on the path of a bear market downturn.
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard At Wednesday's FOMC, bet on 65% unchanged and 35% rate hikes of 25 basis points. The key is the wording: Warsh leans doveh, Powell may lean hawkish. Doves $SOX rebounded, Hawks $SOX dipped to 10,500.
This week, I was watching $IHF, the healthcare ETF, with a $NVDA weight of 0%. Semiconductor Flying Knife is still dropping, but defensive configurations are more reliable than bottom-fishing.
No chasing the Dow, no copying chips.
Personal trading notes do not constitute investment advice.After the attack on the US military base in Jordan, Trump directly declared that the US would ruthlessly take Iran to the point of. This is no longer a diplomatic warning; it's a public call to take action. The window for a brief cooling in the US and Iran has basically closed $BTC $ETH. What should the market guard against next? Guard against a real large-scale counterattack by the US military. If Iran retaliates, crude oil will surge in minutes, inflation pressures will return, and expectations of rate hikes will resurface. Both BTC and US stocks will be crushed by expectations of tightening liquidity. Profanity is only superficial The real danger is that military action may already be underway. Once war spirals out of control, risk assets will be heavily targeted again. Don't think the ceasefire will last long—this game is far from over. Watching oil prices and US military movements is the real indicator. #FedSoonRateDecision #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon to Deliver Tonight #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, Storage stocks have seen sharp volatility 2014: Mt. Gox collapses, BTC at $200, bottoming out after 3 weeks.
2018: BitGrail collapsed, BTC at $3,200, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2022: FTX collapsed, BTC at $16,000, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2026: BitMEX collapses, BTC $63,000, bottoming out in 2-3 weeks?
Every time, the market says, "This time is different."
Every time, the market is wrong.
The difference is: the market caps of BTC in the first three rounds were $2B, $20B, and $300B respectively. Now it's $1.3T.
Same rules, but on a larger scale. $BTC $ETH $SOL $TSLA $NVDA $SPCX$SOL Why is it falling today—Three major negative factors resonate, and the dog farm is taking advantage of the situation to dump the market!
First, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike are heating up! At tonight's FOMC meeting, Citadel bets that the Fed may unexpectedly raise rates by 25 basis points. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike has risen to 35.8%, up from 25.7% a week ago. Once rates increase, high-beta knockoffs like SOL will fall harder than anyone else.
Second, SOL's technical breakthrough is comprehensive! SOL is priced below the EMA50 ($75.16) and EMA200 ($74.94), with the MACD forming a death cross at -0.51. The market has formed a standard downward ladder pattern, with highs continuously falling and lows constantly refreshing. In the short term, the bullish rebound lacks any confidence in sustainability.
Third, SOL is heading toward its tenth consecutive monthly closing decline. From the August 2025 high of $200 to 73, a 63% decline. The monthly chart closed 10 consecutive bearish candles, which has never happened in SOL's historyThere will be major upheavals tonight! Will Bitcoin crash? Is Micron and MU suitable to bottom-fish? Let's take a look.
Will there be a rate hike tonight? The outcome of the policy meeting will be announced at 2 a.m., and at 2:30 a.m., Wash's speech will be held. Personally, I think the probability of a rate hike is low, because oil prices have already dropped sharply but remain relatively high. Therefore, although Washi won't raise rates, he will likely take a hawkish stance to suppress prices. So how should we operate?
In the crypto world, there's a current pattern that has been proven true 7 or 8 times: before the Fed meeting, the price is likely to rise, and afterward, it will fall for 1-2 weeks. This time, the probability of matching this is quite high, because the crypto market did rise quite a bit before the meeting, but the probability of a drop after the meeting is still quite high
So I decided to position short positions on rallies. For example, ETH can enter at the current resistance of 1925-1940 with a low multiple, then fill the gap near 2050 with strong resistance, pushing up the average price and leaving a fallback. Even if ETH breaks through, it will pull back sharply near the next resistance near 2050. This ensures a breakout without losing money. I've also considered my escape strategy—hold it for a few days, hoping for a timely decline
US stocks, on the other hand, are different from the crypto world. The crypto sector had risen for several weeks before the meeting, while US stocks had plunged a lot. So I definitely won't go short on US stocks. MU only has two support levels: 800 and 690. Especially 690, I think this is likely the end point of this decline. If it can reach it, I'll definitely go long aggressively. Tonight, I'll wait for Walsh's performance and live trading. Hope everything goes smoothly~Tonight's FOMC, don't talk to me about rationality, even Wall Street itself is panicking over this game
Only 5 hours left until the Fed's rate decision on July 29.
But guess what? The damn CME FedWatch tool is now giving numbers like rolling dice—65% undecided, 35% betting on a rate hike.
Bro, this isn't some "cautious wait-and-see," in the Fed's script over the past decade, this is called schizophrenia. Any seasoned trader with some common sense knows that on the eve of the decision, these Wall Street quants should have already smoothed out the probabilities. The historical average error is only 2.4 basis points—what does that mean? It means even the digits two decimal places out are calculated clearly.
But today? That 35% "hardliners" are like crazy gamblers in a casino refusing to bet on anything but a leopard—You say they're wrong? They hold the GDPNow forecast that jumped to 2.8% last night and shout at you: "The economy is this hot, tell me there's no inflation pressure?"
On the other side, the 65% "lay-flat faction" isn't scared either, throwing out JOLTs job openings dropping to the lowest since 2021, sneering: "Are you blind? The recession signals are right in your face."
Both sides aren't wrong, but both are deadly.
My script is just two sentences: first play the loser, then be the boss.
Based on my decade-plus experience watching the Fed's show, tonight's harshest move won't be whether to hike or not, but to use the most dovish action while releasing the most hawkish rhetoric.
I bet on Powell—no, now Waller and his crew sound even tougher—most likely to hold rates tonight. But the statement will definitely be packed with vague phrases like "labor market remains tight" and "future data will decide everything."
This is classic Fed-style "giving candy before slapping."
As for Bitcoin? Don't talk to me about fundamentals; that stuff is junk on FOMC night. Just remember one bloody fact: in the past 8 times, all 8 times! BTC has dropped after the FOMC. (July 2025 down 5.87%, September down 7.34%, October crashed 29%, and this January was a brutal 33.55%... I can recite this string of numbers by heart)
Tonight's script is etched in my mind:
1. First shot, hit the shorts. Once the news breaks that the hike is paused, Bitcoin instantly rockets to 63,500. In that minute, short stop-loss orders will explode like firecrackers, blood will flow like a river.
2. Second shot, flip to longs. When those chasing the rally just shout "bulls are back," Waller's hawkish face will invade everyone's phone screen through the press conference. The market will taste it—"Oh, it's a soft knife cutting meat"—panic orders will flood out instantly, and the 59,500 support will be as fragile as paper.
First blow up the shorts, then smash through the longs, tonight's game is designed to crush all resistance.
Don't tell me "this time is different," under the shadow of liquidity tightening, every FOMC is a graveyard for new traders and a cash machine for veterans. Tonight I'll just watch and wait; after they finish the long-short double kill, I'll go in to pick up those bloodied chips.
Remember: in front of the Fed, all technical analysis is gibberish. Staying alive is better than anything else."DataHunter Evening Watch" · July 29, 2026
Understanding the Market Through Data
Less than 3 hours remain until the FOMC interest rate decision announcement.
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of the July monetary policy meeting, followed by a press conference at 2:30 AM led by Chair Wash. After several days of intense volatility—BTC once dropped to 62,742 before quickly rebounding above 64,700—the market is holding its breath awaiting the Fed's final decision.
1. One of the Most Difficult Meetings to Predict in Nearly 20 Years
Market divergence on this meeting is rare in recent years. CME FedWatch data shows a 70.6% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, and a 29.4% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The probability of a 25 basis point hike in the September meeting has risen to 57.7%.
UBS's Chief U.S. Economist remarked that in 20 years, he has never felt so uncertain about the Fed's upcoming rate decision. This divergence stems from two factors—on one hand, escalating Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices up, increasing inflationary risks; on the other, since Wash took office, he has completely abandoned forward guidance, leaving the market without its usual policy signal anchor.
The market generally expects the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, but the divergence centers on the statement's wording and Wash's press conference.
2. Possible Scenarios for Rate Hike or No Hike
Scenario 1: Hold Rates Steady + Hawkish Statement (Highest Probability, about 50%)
JPMorgan expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, with at least two hawkish dissenting votes—Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Harker. The statement may emphasize "inflation remains above target" and "a strong labor market," keeping the option for a September hike open.
Market Reaction: The S&P 500 index is expected to fluctuate between a 0.25% rise and a 0.5% decline. BTC may see a brief "sell the rumor, buy the fact" rebound, but hawkish wording will limit the upside.
Scenario 2: Hold Rates Steady + Dovish Statement (Probability about 28%)
If Wash acknowledges that falling energy prices improve the inflation outlook, this would be most favorable for the stock market, with the S&P 500 likely rising 0.5%-1%. BTC could quickly rebound to 65,500-66,000. However, given Wash's stance since taking office, this scenario is less likely.
Scenario 3: Unexpected 25 Basis Point Hike (Probability about 20%)
Citadel Securities has publicly bet that the Fed might unexpectedly raise rates by 25 basis points. This move would reinforce Wash's determination to restore price stability, "ending the era of forward guidance," while demonstrating the Fed's independence.
If an unexpected hike occurs, the S&P 500 is expected to drop 1.5%-2%, and the Nasdaq 100's decline could double. BTC might quickly fall back to 62,000 or even 60,000-61,000.
3. BTC: Technical Status Before the Decision
BTC currently trades near 64,400. After today's V-shaped rebound (rising from 62,742 to 64,745), the price has moved above the MA7 and MA25. The 1-hour MACD shows a golden cross, and RSI has risen to around 49, indicating short-term bullish momentum but not dominance.
Currently, market funds are highly cautious, awaiting the final guidance from the early morning decision. The rebound lacks sustained incremental capital, and resistance above is evident.
Key Levels:
· Resistance: 64,745 (today's high), 65,300-65,800
· Support: 63,500-63,800 (buying zone on pullback), 62,742 (today's low)
4. Notes Before the Decision
Regardless of what the Fed does or does not do, the true market direction may hinge on every word Wash says at the press conference.
Since taking office in May, Wash has refused to provide forward guidance, and this press conference will likely continue that style: brief opening remarks, concise answers, and very limited forward guidance.
For traders, the core question tonight is not "to hike or not to hike," but "what will Wash say." If the statement is hawkish but vague, the market may be stuck in a "limited rebound, downside supported" dilemma; if Wash signals any dovish tone (even subtle wording changes), risk assets could see a rapid rebound; if an unexpected hike occurs, short-term selling will be inevitable.
Trading Advice: With less than 3 hours to the decision, the best current strategy is to wait for a clear direction before acting. Avoid chasing longs above 64,400. Long holders may consider partial profit-taking in the 64,500-65,000 range. Those without positions should wait until after the FOMC announcement to decide.
Not trading before direction is clear is also part of trading.
Risk Warning: This article is a research note and does not constitute investment advice. The FOMC decision is highly uncertain; investors should assess risks independently.
DataHunter | Understanding the Market Through DataA bite of $SKHYNIX
This round of SK Hynix's decline is a case of positive news being realized + expectations collapsed. The previous stock price fully overloaded HBM's growth expectations, and this earnings report falling short of expectations became a turning point; Combined with weakened spot storage price increases and increased capital expenditure raising supply concerns, AI hardware sector valuations collectively pulled back. The systematic sell-off in the Korean stock market has led to leveraged funds being forced to close out positions.#美联储即将公布利率决议
⚠️The big show is on tonight! Massive volatility is on the way! Will $BTC and $ETH face a sharp dump?
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced promptly at 2 AM, followed by Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM!
Here’s Dragon Lady’s judgment: the probability of a direct rate hike is actually not high. Although oil prices have recently dropped significantly, they remain at a high level overall, and inflation risks still loom overhead.
So, it’s very likely that rates will be held steady, but hawkish rhetoric will be used to suppress a price rebound—this point must be highly watched!
So how should we respond to the market under these circumstances?
Let me share a recurring historical pattern in the crypto space that has been proven true seven or eight times 😂
Before the Fed meeting, the market often preemptively speculates on expectations, causing prices to rise first; once the meeting concludes, a 1-2 week sustained correction and sell-off often follow.
Looking at the current market, the pre-meeting rally has already happened solidly, so the likelihood of history repeating itself is very high.
If the speech signals hawkishness, the risk of a downward correction after the meeting will further increase!Tonight, the AI bubble faces financial report judgment, and Microsoft and Meta will need to present proof of profit
Microsoft and Meta will release their earnings reports after 4 a.m. on July 30. Meta will call at 4:30 PM, and Microsoft at 5:30. If you have to stay up late tonight, the real show will be in the latter half of the night.
Previously, whenever they announced more chip purchases or data center construction, stock prices would rise. Now, AI chip stocks are plummeting continuously, with South Korea's KOSPI pulling back more than 40% from its June high. SK Hynix's profits rose sixfold, but were still slashed for failing to meet the market's crazy expectations.
The market no longer wants to hear AI stories and is asking a very practical question: When will the money you invest actually be returned?
I think focusing only on revenue and profit isn't very useful. I don't understand complex financial report models, so tonight I'll focus on five things for the AI:
1. Has Microsoft Azure's growth rate continued to accelerate?
2. Whether Microsoft's AI business revenue growth can cover the ever-increasing computing power investment
3. Does Meta's AI recommendation and advertising tools truly drive ad revenue growth?
4. Will Meta's full-year capital expenditure guidance of $125 billion to $145 billion be further raised?
5. How will these two companies move after hours, and will BTC once again be dragged down by AI stocks?
Here's a very unconventional aspect: even if the earnings exceed expectations, the stock price may not necessarily rise.
If revenue growth is good but capital expenditure continues to spiral out of control, the market may still sell. If both companies can prove that AI is already generating real revenue and that they won't have to burn money endlessly in the future, the AI sector might catch its breath. If both earnings and guidance fall short of expectations, this round of AI stock sell-offs may continue to spread, and BTC is very likely to remain completely unaffected.
My judgment is that tonight's market judgment is not whether AI has a future, but whether AI can make money right now.
In the past, people paid for imagination; now people want to see the payment received.
When you wake up tomorrow morning, review these five items first, so you don't get lost in dozens of pages of financial reports.$PIEVERSE The price has now stabilized, and this coin surged once a couple of days ago. When it rose, I thought it might pull back in the short term. I went short-selling and took a bite. Now that its price is basically stable, my current idea is to go long. My main concern is that it will become a monster like $LAB, because these two coins have too many similarities. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its data. It can be seen that as its price pulls back, its contract open interest and long-short ratio of contract accounts have both returned to their original levels. I think it's basically no different from its previous data, because just looking at the numbers, there's really no difference. Personally, I prefer to go long, although many coins similar to it have not performed well before, such as $ESP. However, I am more willing to trust $PIEVERSE. —————————————————— Why do I say $PIEVERSE and $LAB have so many similarities? Let's take a look at their comparison. Personally, I think the $PIEVERSE oscillation phase is very similar to the $LAB fluctuation phase. Moreover, after the shock ended, $LAB did make a strong rally, then smashed again. This is also quite similar to $PIEVERSE. Let's compare some basic information about these two coins. It can be seen that these two coins have been launchedWith every crisis, the market reminds investors in different ways
Looking back at several major events, it is clear that different markets have experienced significant differences in declines when facing crises. During the COM bubble, the Taiwan stock market experienced a maximum drawdown close to 67%; During the global financial crisis, Taiwan, US stocks, and Korean stocks all fell by more than 50% at one point. By the 2018 stock market crash and COVID-19, the most volatile markets shifted to cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin experiencing maximum drops of about 84% and 63%, respectively.
Even shorter events, such as Japan's 2024 rate hike triggering the unwinding of yen carry trades, or the 2025 tariff shock, could cause market corrections of about 10% to 30% in a short period. History may not repeat itself, but the market often reminds investors in similar ways: what truly needs to be managed is not just the rate of return, but also whether you can withstand a sufficiently large drawdown when extreme market conditions occur.
The above content is solely for personal research results and viewpoint sharing. Rational discussion is welcome and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing carries risks; please assess and make decisions prudently.$BTC The American Arbitration Association (AAA) officially announced the establishment of a Web3 professional arbitration panel to handle all disputes related to smart contracts, blockchain, digital assets, tokenization, decentralized systems, and AI agent commercial transactions. The first group of experts brings together top law firms, Penn Law School scholars, and Google Cloud Web3 leaders, spanning legal, technical, and business fields; Continue to expand expert resources to handle the growing number of cross-border business disputes in Web3. 🚨 Many people simply took this news as big news! Objective Characterization: This is a medium- to long-term compliance cornerstone positive for the industry, but there is no short-term surge driving it! Representing the traditional business legal system, it officially accepts Web3 asset disputes, eliminating major concerns for institutions entering the market; But it's just the implementation of dispute resolution mechanisms, not major catalysts like ETFs or bill passes. Tonight, the core of the market will still be set by the Federal Reserve's decision. Don't rely solely on this news to heavily bet on short-term market opportunities! 1. In-depth Analysis of the News 1. Institutional Background Value AAA (American Arbitration Association) is a top global non-profit dispute resolution institution, established for a century. Its arbitral awards have judicial enforceability in the United States, and many multinational commercial contracts default to AAA arbitration. Significance: Web3 assets are no longer isolated from mature commercial legal systems. One of the biggest concerns for institutional funds—the inability to defend their rights in disputes—is gradually being resolved. 2. Scope of acceptance and coverage sectors: Includes RWA tokenization, smart contract vulnerability disputes, decentralized protocols, and AI autonomous transactions (intelligent agent commerce).Many saw a US-Iran ceasefire and a sharp drop in oil prices, immediately rushing in to go long on Bitcoin $BTC, expecting inflation to cool and the Fed to loosen. As a result, BTC fell nearly 3%, ETH over 3.6%, and over 160,000 people were liquidated in 24 hours online. While oil prices plummeted, the crypto world crashed first, mainly because retail investors saw positive news that the main players had already priced in in advance.
Previously, crude oil rose from $83.5 to $94.3, with the war premium gradually being absorbed; after the U.S. paused attacks on Iran on July 24, oil prices quickly fell sharply, dropping nearly 11% over three trading days. Polymarket data shows that the market has already priced the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire before the end of August to 75%, and most of the positive expectations have already been traded in.
People think a sharp drop in oil prices signals easing, but in reality, the logic of "falling oil prices→ lower inflation→ Fed loosening → crypto rises" has long since been exhausted. Bitcoin surged above $65,000 over the weekend, which is not the starting point of the market but the end of the shipments. After the Asia-Pacific session opened, the coin price plunged rapidly, signaling the realization of all the good news.
Moreover, this ceasefire itself is extremely fragile. Trump has stated that if negotiations fail, military operations will still resume, Iran denies direct talks, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal. 75% of ceasefire expectations have already priced in, leaving the remaining 25% risk of negotiation breakdown—the real variable: once the situation reverses, oil prices rebound by more than 7%, inflation expectations rebound, Fed rate hike expectations heat up, the dollar tightens, and Bitcoin will be the first to be sold off.
Here are a few practical tips:
1. Don't chase long positions at a 75% high probability of positive news; what you see is the tail end of good news, not the starting point;
2. Take advantage of this surge in macro sentiment to reduce positions appropriately, and cash in when others are following the trend and greedy;
3. Those holding positions can allocate short-term put options to hedge risk. This week, with the Fed's rate decision and the volatility of Middle East situations, any news can cause dramatic market changes.
When everyone assumes that "a ceasefire is a major positive development," the greatest risk is never the event itself, but the consensus across the entire internet. #停火48小时告吹, Mei-Yi Talks While Fighting #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Daily Market Brief | 2026.07.29 (Wednesday)
📌 One-sentence summary
Tonight is the real decisive moment of the week: the Federal Reserve decision, Microsoft and Meta earnings reports will be released, directly determining whether the AI and storage sectors can stop falling.
🔥 Today's focus: Storage sector
Micron fell about 8.9%, SanDisk fell about 14.3%, storage stocks are still rapidly devaluing.
But SK Hynix's latest results set records:
Revenue increased 257% year-on-year
Operating profit increased 557% year-on-year
HBM4 has started mass production and shipment
Long-term supply agreements signed with multiple key customers
This indicates that current storage demand has not collapsed. The stock price decline mainly reflects market concerns about future over-expansion, AI investment returns, and competition from Changxin Technology.
My judgment is: no rush to bottom-fish now, first see if Microsoft and Meta continue to increase AI capital expenditure tonight. If investment continues to grow, storage stocks may see an oversold rebound; if investment slows, there may be a second round of adjustment.
💾 Changxin Technology and CXMT
Changxin Technology fell back to about 47 yuan on the second trading day, but its market value still exceeds 3 trillion yuan.
CXMT perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid are about $6.49, about 6%-7% lower than the A-share converted price, and the funding rate is negative, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market.
This discount is not a risk-free arbitrage but better serves as a sentiment indicator of global capital's valuation of Changxin. The key next observation is whether the A-shares can hold around 47 yuan.
🏦 Two major events tonight
2:00 AM: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
2:30 AM: Federal Reserve Chair press conference
Early morning: Meta and Microsoft earnings
The baseline scenario is the Fed maintaining rates, but if it continues to emphasize inflation and future rate hike risks, the market may not sustain a rebound.
The most important data from Microsoft and Meta is not EPS, but AI capital expenditure, cloud business growth, and whether data center investments can generate sufficient returns.
🪙 BTC brief observation
BTC is currently fluctuating around $63,000. It is not suitable to heavily bet on direction before the Fed announcement; key levels to watch:
Support below: about $62,770
Resistance above: about $64,050
Wait for a valid breakout before following, which is safer than betting in advance.
💡 My view
Do not conclude that storage stocks have bottomed just because SK Hynix's results are record-breaking.
Current orders are indeed strong, but the market trades on future expansion, Chinese competition, and AI investment returns.
The answers given tonight by the Fed, Microsoft, and Meta will determine whether this round of storage stock decline is a short-term oversell or a larger-scale valuation adjustment.-4.54% + 7.49%—these two numbers hit the table like two heavy sticks, hitting the just lively table. Do you also feel that this rebound is a bit unrealistic, like dancing on glass? Yesterday, I saw $KITE and $RE dive together, which wasn't surprising. On the surface, it appears to be a correction for popular coins, but the deeper signal is: liquidity hasn't spread at all, but is shrinking to a few safe bets. $UNI and $XPL are still holding on, but it's more like big money is "holding positions" rather than actually attacking. What really alerts me is the actions of those top PnL wallets on OKX Orbit. They quietly add short positions rather than bottom-fishing. This "Werewolf" style strategy shows that the big players do not believe this rebound will last. The louder those predictors still shouting "bottom-fishing," the more I feel they're bait. $GRAM's failed short squeeze was the most tragic signal of this round. It directly exposes the vulnerability of the knockoff market—excessive leverage and insufficient support. Once coins like $ZAMA start being liquidated, the entire sector will be dragged down. $API 3 Drop the least, but don't be fooled. When the leader starts bleeding, the back row will only suffer worse. So how should we view it now? - Look for a bullish path: $BTC If it holds steady, it can serve as an anchor to ease panic first, then gradually trigger the magnetic effect of $ETH. If $ETH can get started, the knockoffs will have a chance to catch their breath. - Bearish risk: Large funds are shorting, short squeezing fails, and internal sector strength is weakSouth Korean President Lee Jae-myung's actions are quite outrageous. In March, he urged the public to sell their houses and enter the stock market to speculate; in May, he launched leveraged ETFs for Samsung and SK Hynix stocks; in June, he publicly claimed that the stock market valuation was low, even though the index was already at the peak of this cycle, effectively guiding the entire population to take over the stocks.
After the market plunge, only contraction policies such as tightening leverage and raising interest rates were introduced, with no willingness to use funds to support and rescue the market. This approach has historical precedents.Three days later, you'll come to me asking if I can still chase $PEPE, and I'll tell you: Where were you all along? As soon as that bullish candlestick hit in the early hours of the 29th, I knew my bottom fishing in the past two days was worth it. The order was 0.0000121, and now it's 0.0000189, nearly 55 points. No leverage, no contracts, pure spot trading. This was not just a guess, it was caused by pain. Last month, during the $WIF crash, I went from 0.28 to 0.19, holding it until my scalp tingled before I broke even. At that time, I just got emotionally charged and saw others shouting a hundredfold, without even paying attention to the on-chain whales selling off. After that time, I forced myself to change my habit: when small coins are pumping up, first check if the volume is piling up on the three 4-hour moving averages. This time, $PEPE started bottoming with volume growth on July 25, and only dared to place a position on the 26th after it pulled back without breaking the previous low. I didn't dare to rush in one go, so I took over two hands in batches, steadily and steadily, and my mindset steadied. In the middle, I was reckless and wanted to do T, selling a small portion at 0.000013, which left me frustrated all night. But the remaining big part was secured, and today's emotional release was refreshing. To be honest, this market isn't about how advanced the technology is, but about the many pitfalls they've fallen into. I used to always want to find the next thousand-fold coin, but now I think just being able to fully capture a trend is enough. $PEPE I won't chase this position anymore. If the profit margin is thick enough, just take it and fly it. Set a cost loss and let it dance as it pleases. Don't just wait until it rises and ask if I can still get in. Ask yourself first—when it was sideways two days ago, what were you doing? #伦理条款获特朗普认可, #加密行情回暖 disagreements remain, and Bitcoin rose #特朗普将决定是否扩大对伊战$BTC is hovering around the $63.4K–$64K range, but this isn't just about technical charts.
Markets widely expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, meaning financial conditions are likely to remain tight. At the same time, renewed U.S.–Iran tensions have pushed oil prices to around $74.67, raising concerns that inflationary pressures could resurface.
We've seen this playbook before. As geopolitical tensions escalated, Bitcoin dropped from $72K to $63K, while altcoins experienced even steeper losses.
If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, risk assets could face renewed selling pressure, with altcoins likely to underperform Bitcoin.
For now, crypto is still trading like a risk asset, not a traditional safe haven.
#FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss This FOMC meeting is the hardest to price in recent years, with uncertainty being created on three levels.
First level, the face value itself: 69.5% no change vs 30.5% a 25bp rate hike — note, it’s a hike, not a cut. Bank of America’s historical statistics are crucial: since 1994, the Fed has never hiked rates when the market’s probability of a hike was below 60%. If it happens tonight, it will be unprecedented. TD’s baseline scenario is even more subtle: no change plus two hawkish dissenting votes. In other words, even if there’s no hike, the "publicization of dissent" itself is a hawkish signal.
Second level, data is pulling in two directions: consumer confidence at 90.8 and weakening employment sentiment support dovishness; oil prices rebound due to missile attacks support hawkishness — we just celebrated the easing of inflation as oil prices fell, but within a week this line has rebounded again. The energy variable has never truly exited the stage.
The third and most important level: Waller has scrapped forward guidance, and the market has to rebuild the old framework for interpreting statements. Tonight is not about the decision itself, but about the new chair’s "language system debut" — how he describes energy inflation, how he defines risk balance, every word will become a pricing anchor for the coming year.
Operationally, the old rule applies: no leverage before the event. In a market undergoing framework reconstruction, volatility itself is the market.
#美联储即将公布利率决议 $SHIB What is the next step for the dog farm?
Short term: The price is likely to fluctuate within the 0.0000044-0.0000050 range. The FOMC decision is the biggest variable—the probability of keeping rates unchanged tonight is 70%, and the chance of an unexpected rate hike is 30%. Once it leans hawkish, a high-beta knockoff like SHIB will fall harder than anyone else!
Mid-term: The biggest problem is that the Shibarium ecosystem has completely collapsed. DeFiLlama data shows that Shibarium DEX's trading volume plummeted 95% in a week, dropping to just $72. Mainstream DEXs like WoofSwap and DogSwap had zero trading throughout the week. Prices are rising, the ecosystem is dying—this isn't value discovery, it's dog farms pulling up and selling!
The final heartfelt words:
SHIB plunged from 0.00000582 to 0.0000046, burying all those who chased the highs. Japan's Green List, Burning Surges 1028%, Analysts Shout Sales—Positive News Piles Up. But the whale executed 52 large trades with precision, exchange reserves reached 86.8 trillion, and Shibarium DEX was down to $72—all three major bombs were triggered. Santiment put it clearly: "Cash out when retail FOMO surges, wait until the crowd calls the token a scam before re-entering." For those chasing the highs now, think about whether you can withstand the dog farm and push it down to 0.000004. Hold your hands and wait until the direction is clear before making your move. Remember, staying long in crypto is ten thousand times more important than making a lot of money! Meeting adjourned!迈克尔·伯里表示，$NVDA 的五年期信用违约掉期正在飙升，因为该公司为了维持循环的 AI 支出而“过度扩张”。
但这假设供应商融资正在创造需求，而 Nvidia 仍然面临供应限制，并利用融资加速为已经等待芯片的客户部署。Profit first! $ETH Short position took 20 points, short position preparation for the night of the exchange meeting
Erbing's short position was perfectly executed, earning 20 points with a return rate of 175.13%!
Major data hits in the early morning—don't hold positions and take risks overnight—just pocket your gains first.
Resting and waiting, a new round of major market rally is about to arrive. #美联储即将公布利率决议 $KAITO This project was once a hot topic, but it no longer has its former glory. Currently, the price of $KAITO is above one-third of its peak. But can it still regain one-third of its former glory now? Probably not. At least for me, I think it no longer has the brilliance it once had at a third. Back when it was at its peak, almost half of bloggers' posts included it. And now? How many people mention it? Very few are there. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its data. It can be seen that at the beginning of the month, the long-short ratio of $KAITO contracts experienced a sharp rise. Looking at the candlestick chart, its price did not change much at that time. In other words, during sideways trading, the long-short ratio of $KAITO contracts rises rapidly, meaning many bears are turning long at that price level. Afterwards, as $KAITO continued to rise, its contract long-short ratio gradually declined. I compared the candlestick chart. When the contract long-short ratio dropped back to the level before the surge, the price of $KAITO was roughly around one US dollar. In other words, when the price was around one dollar, even those lying in wait at the bottom would leave. After that, we can see that its open interest surged rapidly, while the long-short ratio further declined. This indicates that as its price continues to rise, short-selling funds are increasing massively. A coin can still maintain its position with so much capital to short it#FinancialReportObserver: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Report Tonight
Financial Report Observer | Microsoft and Meta report first tonight, Amazon follows tomorrow night: The "trust vote" of the AI spending season has begun
In the early morning of July 30 Beijing time (after US market close on July 29), Microsoft and Meta kick off this round of tech giant earnings season; Amazon will follow after the US market close on July 30.
This wave is no longer about "whether AI is growing," but the market is scrutinizing: how much real cash is returned from hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures?
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📌 Microsoft (after close 7/29): Azure maintains pace + Copilot monetization
• Expected EPS about $4.22, revenue about $87.5–87.7 billion
• Key focus: Can Azure's fixed-rate growth hold within 39%–41% range (about 40% last quarter)
• Copilot paid seats and ARPU changes in Microsoft 365 Business edition with built-in Copilot are key evidence of AI monetization on the software side
• Concerns: Fiscal 2026 capex plan about $190 billion, last quarter Capex already hit $31.9 billion, cloud gross margin declining, free cash flow dropped from $25.7 billion to $15.8 billion, investment curve steeper than revenue curve
Microsoft's challenge: Keep cloud growth from slowing, avoid large Capex upward revisions, and Copilot must show "chargeable" data.
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📌 Meta (after close 7/29): Advertising base vs massive spending
• Expected revenue about $60.1 billion (YoY +26.6%), EPS about $7.13–7.24
• Advertising revenue expected over $59 billion, Advantage+ automated ad tools have become the main engine, AI recommendations bring "volume and price increase"
• But Capex is the elephant in the room: 2026 guidance $125–145 billion, Q2 estimated about $33.7 billion (nearly doubled YoY), Bank of America even guesses the upper limit might reach $150 billion
• Without AWS-like external cloud revenue hedge, Reality Labs + self-developed computing power rely entirely on internal ad profits, free cash flow turning negative is the biggest valuation anchor
Meta's challenge: Can ad growth cover Capex interest + depreciation erosion? Will Zuckerberg introduce a new narrative of "Meta Compute renting computing power externally"?
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📌 Amazon (after close 7/30): AWS lifeline + cash flow recovery
• Expected EPS about $1.82–1.85
• AWS growth rebounded to 28% last quarter (fastest in 15 quarters), backlog contracts over $360 billion, the trump card to prove the logic
• But full-year Capex plan near $200 billion, free cash flow in past 12 months only $1.2 billion, last time market saw expansion plans directly triggered an 8% single-day drop
• Self-developed Trainium/Inferentia chips annualized over $20 billion, retail advertising business profit margin, all auxiliary verification points
Amazon's challenge: AWS must not slow down, operating margin must not collapse, provide a clear path for "when free cash flow returns to positive."
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🎯 The real variables tonight and tomorrow night
Alphabet set a benchmark last week with "record profits but a 7% drop due to increased Capex" — beating expectations is not enough, spending discipline is the emotional switch.
Common red lines for the three:
1. Whether cloud/Azure/AWS growth meets targets
2. Whether capital expenditure guidance continues to be revised upward
3. Whether AI revenue (Copilot, Advantage+, AWS AI services) shows independent acceleration
4. The degree of sacrifice in free cash flow and gross margin
Crypto and Nasdaq leveraged funds are also watching: If giants collectively "continue to increase Capex without slowing," the computing power chain (Nvidia, Broadcom, storage) benefits short-term but faces more anxiety in long-term discounting; if they collectively signal "peak passed/returns realized," growth stock valuation pressure will ease.
#美联储即将公布利率决议
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $ZAMA looks bullish on the daily chart, holding above the MA5, MA10, and MA20 at $0.0628.
A break above $0.0667 could extend the rally, while holding above $0.0595 keeps the uptrend intact.
#DailyOrbit @OKX中文 $ZK / USDT
$ZK is bleeding with the market, but the move is now reaching a support-watch zone. The silence before the storm is loud here because fear is already in the candle.
$ZK is trading near 0.008141 with a -5.79% move and volume around $219.62K. If buyers defend this range and volume starts rising, $ZK can attempt a recovery push.
Watching support around 0.00790–0.00815. Holding this zone keeps the setup alive.
EP: 0.00800 – 0.00820
TP: 0.00855 / 0.00900 / 0.00970
SL: 0.00755Countdown to the Federal Reserve decision! The "crux" for BTC and the US stock market is actually not about whether to raise interest rates or not
At 2 AM Beijing time on July 30, the global market's attention will focus on the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's subsequent press conference.
The biggest uncertainty in this meeting is that the market has completely lost the "forward guidance" reference point and can no longer bet in advance.
According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch":
🔹 Probability of keeping rates unchanged: 69.5%
🔹 Probability of a 25 basis point rate hike: 30.5%
Although "holding steady" seems like the most likely event, the 30.5% expectation of a rate hike far exceeds the level of a regular meeting. What is even more alarming is a statistic from Bank of America: since 1994, the Fed has never suddenly acted when the market's rate hike probability was below 60%. If an unexpected rate hike occurs this time, it would be an unprecedented "hawkish surprise."
Currently, macro data is in an awkward "tug of war":
✅ Dovish signals: July consumer confidence dropped to 90.8, employment expectations weakened, household income and consumer confidence declined, clear signs of economic cooling.
❌ Hawkish signals: international oil prices rebounded, pushing up energy inflation expectations, and service sector inflation remains very sticky.
In summary: the economy is cooling, but inflation has not been completely extinguished. This "stagflation" sign is the Fed's most troublesome problem.
For the crypto market (BTC) and US stocks, what often triggers major moves is not the interest rate numbers themselves, but Powell's few words about the "future path" during the press conference. Tonight, keep a close eye on Powell's "next sentence"!
#美联储即将公布利率决议
$BTC $ETH $SNDK SK Hynix's excellent financial report has once again dragged down the Korean stock market. Has the AI narrative really collapsed?
To answer first: the decline is panic, but don't be mindless. The logic of AI narrative changes and is challenged by China, but it does not mean the collapse is over
Is SK Hynix's financial report good?
The financial report is excellent, which is a satisfactory report. Its profitability remains among the strongest in the world, but the validation logic of artificial intelligence has changed
Previously, we looked at whether financial reports exceeded expectations, overall profits, and future growth; now, we look at orders, AI commercialization, and capital expenditure to verify whether tech company valuations are reasonable
Three verification logics for this week's earnings report plus macro viewing:
a. Does inflation and growth data strengthen or weaken expectations for high interest rates?
b. Do tech companies' profits grow faster than capital expenditure growth?
c. Between interest rate pressure and profit improvement, which side dominates?
The core of this verification logic is whether the macro view of U.S. economic growth matches the high valuation of artificial intelligence, and the micro perspective of whether current corporate earnings and the potential for future AI commercialization support current stock prices.
When interest rate pressures and profit improvements cannot be met by the market, high interest rates will inevitably make financing conditions harder to worry about, which will also lead to selling pressure
SK Hynix's core growth in its financial report still relies on HBM high-bandwidth memory, which is priced much higher than Pudong DRAM, with gross margins higher than traditional storage and full capacity. SK Hynix's overall financial report gives the market the answer — record-breaking revenue and record-high profits
Unfortunately, this excellent financial report still couldn't satisfy investors' inflated desires, leading to a drop in stock prices and a start of valuation adjustments
Market expectations for Hynix were too high, which was the main reason for the decline after the company's strong financial report. The market originally expected revenue of 84 trillion KRW, but in reality, it was only 79 trillion KRW, and operating profit was also below expectations, causing the stock price to plummet
It should be noted here that the capital market does not price stock prices based on the present, but rather on the future. The trading is about expectations. If market expectations for companies become overheated and stock prices continue to rise, this is a valuation bubble. This bubble requires companies to support it with solid performance; otherwise, valuations will adjust and stock prices will fall
Today's SK Hynix is just like that—the decline isn't due to poor earnings, but rather from overly hot market expectations. Such high expectations put more pressure on future earnings and teach the market a "painful" lesson
As a storage leader, SK's stock price drop has also brought on valuation adjustments that have spread to the entire storage sector, driving global AI companies down. However, according to information from company management, it's clear that storage hasn't collapsed yet! #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations
1. HBM demand still exists and has not clearly slowed down. The company believes that strong AI investment will drive continued growth in HBM demand, high-end product orders remain stable, and future sales space remains
2. Management maintains a cautious attitude toward unlimited expansion, stating that it will not expand indefinitely and will arrange capital expenditures based on customer orders to avoid the possibility of price crashes caused by future market expectations of oversupply.
These two points are enough to support corporate confidence for SK Hynix in the coming quarters. If there is demand, cautious production and supply balance are maintained. It's not that storage will always be strong, but as long as demand exists and production is not blindly expanded, at least short-term corporate confidence will not collapse
Of course, in the future of artificial intelligence, there are still several risk points to be aware of
1. AI capital spending slows down, especially for SK Hynix's suppliers like Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, etc. Once their capital expenditures enter a contraction phase and storage demand weakens, corporate confidence will decline
2. Intensified competition: Samsung is catching up with high-end products, the US is expanding HBM supply, and China is also chasing cost-effective storage products. If SK Hynix's competitiveness in the storage market declines, it will affect corporate profitability
3. Profit issues, especially high-end storage HBM with very high gross profit margins. If more manufacturers join in the future, yield improves, and customer bargaining power strengthens, profits will be squeezed and future expectations affected
4. The historical cyclicality of the storage industry: AI narratives can cause storage cycles to change over time cycles, but not the rhythm of the cycles. The timing may change, but the rhythm remains the same.
Conclusion:
SK Hynix's drag down today's tech stocks is simply because the market is in a highly sensitive and cautious phase. SK Hynix is merely a catalyst, just like last week's breakthrough in China's artificial intelligence, which has limited impact on the current industry but can still weigh on global stock markets. The trigger is only superficial; the underlying logic is still that the market is adjusting valuations, waiting for new confidence.
For SK Hynix, a short-term stock price decline and valuation adjustment are healthy. As long as the industry hasn't collapsed, a return to stock price is only a matter of time. Especially since SK Hynix has been strong since last week, it's not surprising that the company faces a clear drop in earnings this week.
In the long term, SK Hynix remains one of the core beneficiaries of the global AI storage industry chain. HBM is its technical moat, and currently, the moat is in good shape, so there is no need to worry about it for the next 1-2 years.
For stock prices, after being oversold, there will inevitably be a rebound and recovery in the future. Whether to buy back or bottom-fish, I don't think there's any rush. First, look at the remaining key earnings releases this week, then check the overall adjustment in Q2 earnings season before making a judgment!
#DailyOrbit Record earnings don't always mean a higher stock price.
That's the lesson from $SKHYNIX.
The AI memory story is still intact—but after a massive rally, the market was pricing in perfection.
Despite:
📈 Strong revenue growth
📈 Explosive profit expansion
📈 Industry-leading margins
The stock still sold off because expectations were simply too high.
Markets don't reward "great." They reward better than expected.
I'm not rushing to catch the falling knife. I'd rather wait for valuations to reset, sentiment to cool, and price action to confirm a higher-probability entry.
Patience is a position too.
$SKHYNIX $MU $SNDK #FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #AI #Semiconductors #DailyOrbitEY (Korea ETF, US stocks)
• Short-term pressure: 54.3 ~ 55.0
• Short-term support: 51.6 ~ 52.2
1. Baseline scenario: Weak volatility
Market sentiment remains fragile; without major positive news, it is highly likely to remain weak and volatile. If Philadelphia Semiconductor and Micron Technology continue to weaken, the EWY will test support below; If the U.S. tech sector stabilizes, a slight technical rebound is expected, but the sustainability of the rally is questionable.
2. Upside conditions
Sentiment in the storage sector is recovering, the Nasdaq is rebounding after a decline, and the EWY holding above 55 is essential to improve expectations for the Korean stock market opening tomorrow.
3. Downside risk
U.S. tech stocks continue to push valuations, while the storage sector is selling off, breaking below the 51.6 support level, which will likely signal a lower opening for Korean stocks tomorrow.
Core Influence Logic
1. Highly bound memory chips
The semiconductor market ≈ the Korean stock market. Tonight's US trading session with Micron and SK Hynix ADR trends is the most important indicator for predicting tomorrow's Korean stock market. US storage continues to plunge, Asia-Pacific will remain under pressure tomorrow; Only after the US market stabilized its decline will Korean stocks have a chance to catch their breath.
2. Leverage Deleveraging Pressure Remains
Previously, a large number of Korean leveraged ETFs were liquidated in succession, making it difficult to clear short-term selling pressure all at once. Even if a rebound occurs, it is more likely to be a volatile recovery and difficult to immediately reverse the trend.
3. Regulatory stability and bottom-line support
South Korean authorities have urgently rescued the market, aiming to limit extreme bottomless plunge, but it is unlikely to immediately reverse the trend of mid-term capital flight.
Key risk reminders
1. Currently, we are in an extremely high-volatility phase. Overnight fluctuations in US stocks will directly and significantly affect the opening of Korean stocks the following day, resulting in a high risk of gap-ups.
2. Short-term oversold does not mean bottoming out immediately; do not easily catch the dip on the left side for a reversal in the game;
3. U.S. and South Korea Storage Markets Form a Sentiment Closed Loop: Korean stocks plunged during the day→ U.S. stocks faced pressure on storage stocks→ Asia-Pacific continued to face pressure the next day, and major positive feedback is needed to break the negative feedback. $XEWY In the crypto world, $SOXS perpetual contracts are trading more than 30% premium over US stock stocks, and negative rates and short squeezes will trigger a sharp cross-market clearing around tonight's FOMC decision.
Currently, the on-chain perpetual price of $SOXS is listed at 67.32, with the underlying US stock closing at 51.53, and the cross-market premium has surged above 30%. The funding rate remains negative, bears are paying daily holding costs, and the 4H MACD histogram continues to expand positively.
Pricing dominance shows a two-tiered divergence: US stocks are suppressed by macro interest rate decisions and semiconductor sector expectations, while on-chain derivatives are driven by passive short covering caused by high premium arbitrage and negative rates. The negative rate mechanism continuously raises short positions to maintain margins, making on-chain liquidation risk prioritize spot clearing of US stocks.
Upside scenario: If the Fed sends a hawkish signal and interest rate expectations remain high, putting pressure on the semiconductor sector, $SOXS a sharp rise in underlying stocks will directly trigger the on-chain short squeeze flywheel. The 4H MACD forward expansion will accelerate short unwinding, attracting arbitrage traders to buy the underlying stock and short perpetual, pushing up contract prices.
Downside scenario: If the Fed sends a dovish signal, a violent rebound in the semiconductor sector will cause $SOXS stocks to plunge instantly. A drop in spot US stocks will quickly break through the 30% derivatives premium, with on-chain long positions closing high positions and arbitrage positions simultaneously, triggering a rapid convergence of perpetual prices and clearing toward the 51.53 underlying benchmark.
The failure signal is determined by the speed at which cross-market premiums are narrowing. If the on-chain perpetual price falls below 60 before the US market opens and the MACD histogram turns contracting, it indicates a break in the short squeeze flywheel and the premium will return to normal range ahead of schedule.
In the next 24 hours, the focus will be on the impact of the FOMC rate decision statement on the US semiconductor sector, as well as the real-time convergence speed of the underlying price at 51.53 against the 67.32 perpetual premium.
#AI巨头债券利差飙升: Investment risks are still good opportunities to buy the dip. #Zcash主网激活Ironwood升级, launch a new shielded pool #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard#NvidiaGoogleBackAI
When peeling away three-thousand-year-old strata in the trench with a Luoyang shovel, the first thing to see the light of day is often not the flashy golden crown, but the clay slabs engraved with guarantee clauses and the massive stone pillars supporting the massive temple.
Today's tech giants endorsing tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars in debt for next-generation computing centers may seem like a cutting-edge wave to ordinary people, but to us archaeologists, it is nothing more than a historical replay of the nationwide effort to build the "Hanging Gardens" and the "Roman Aqueducts" at the height of human civilization. The royal contracts of ancient Babylon, the state guarantees of Roman public facilities, and even the Dutch East India Company's breach of contract with the seventeenth-century caravan voyages all carry the same rhyme.
A close analysis of this newly unearthed "modern capital site": NVIDIA is preparing to provide about $250 billion in financial guarantees for SoftBank's planned 10GW computing power temple in Ohio, with the total cost of the entire infrastructure potentially reaching $5 trillion; Meanwhile, Google has also slashed the minimum guarantee for third-party data center lease defaults from $6.5 billion to $44 billion, specifically to provide credit support for the third-party chip ecosystem.
This is not pure technological competition; it is a typical example of "post-imperial infrastructure hyper-leverage."
From a stratigraphic perspective, when giants no longer rely solely on cash flow to purchase hardware but begin large-scale use of "financial guarantees" to lock in physical land, electricity, and concrete, it marks the era's full transition from the "technological exploration period" to the "imperial expansion period." Back then, ancient Rome used national credit guarantees to build military cobblestone roads to various provinces, essentially anchoring the empire's future on distant tax rights that had yet to be harvested.
This credit expansion, led by industry giants, is having a profound geopolitical impact on the $XMSFT of US stock token backdrops and the entire decentralized computing value network. The funding gap was temporarily filled by credit leverage, but history has long proven that when the temple's construction costs are fully covered by ultimate credit, any tenant default or underperformance will leave an irreversible fracture zone in the strata.
What Google and NVIDIA invested in was not liquidity, but a massive chain of civilization. They tightly tie their balance sheets to the physical world's power grids and bricks, attempting to build a defensive iron curtain with the ancient "debt concession."
All the vast empires in history that tried to secure hegemony through unlimited guarantees ultimately left behind only piles of clay slab fragments bearing astronomical debts.Core Takeaway from Goldman Sachs Storage Expert Meeting: Is Storage Really Surplus Nowadays?
On the eve of Changxin's IPO, Goldman Sachs organized a conference call for storage industry experts
Yes.
The people they invited were quite interesting—former Samsung executive directors and former Changxin executives. You may not know the name, but the three core points they say are enough to change your perception of storage.
First, Changxin's DRAM market share is 8%, with revenue growing more than sevenfold year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2026, Changxin's global DRAM market share has reached 8%. Q1 revenue was 50.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 719%. Last year, its share was just over 3%, but in just one year, it nearly tripled.
Second, doubling production capacity by 2030 may still be conservative.
The original plan was to double production capacity by 2030. However, experts at Goldman Sachs said during a conference call that this prediction might be too restrained.
Changxin's production capacity layout spans three major bases: Hefei, Shanghai, and Beijing, with full production expected to begin before 2028. By the end of 2026, it will reach a monthly output of 350,000 wafers, already approaching Micron's 375,000 wafers.
A larger production base will continue to contribute capacity beyond 2028.
Third, mass production of HBM3 is targeted for 2026.
HBM is the crown jewel of AI computing power.
Previously, there were only Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Changxin's HBM3 mass production plan has been locked in for 2026.
Changxin has invested about 20% of its total DRAM capacity into HBM manufacturing, with a monthly capacity of up to 60,000 wafers.
Although technologically still three to four years behind top companies, the HBM market is growing from three to four.
There is another detail.
South Korea just signed a cumulative $950 billion long-term agreement with the U.S.—Samsung and SK Hynix's production capacity has already been fully booked, and as many as they can.
In this scenario, Changxin's DRAM and HBM will benefit everyone in the world who want to buy memory chips but cannot secure orders from Samsung Hynix.
South Korea's production capacity has been locked down, while China is expanding production frantically.
At this point, someone says storage is no longer lacking?
Isn't that absurd?
If there's nothing lacking, why sign a long-term agreement? Why expand production?
Whether you lack it depends on your actions, not your voice.
Long-term contracts lock in volume for the coming years, while capacity expansion fills future gaps—these two things happening simultaneously precisely indicate that storage will not be sufficient for a long time to come.
Once DRAM expansion begins, Changxin will benefit far more than just itself.
Equipment suppliers like NAURA Huachuang and AMEC are all part of Changxin's chain.
When did Samsung react? Hynix realized it was selling its future cheaply.
That's when the real rhythm shifts happen.
Buy the moat, ride the bull — Buy the moat, take the long ox.
$MU $SKHY #长鑫存储 #A股 #存储 #半导体 #芯片$ALLO remains under strong bearish pressure on the daily chart, trading around $0.3147 after a sharp rejection from the $0.5512 high.
Price is below the MA5, MA10, and MA20, signaling that bears still control the trend.
The $0.3090 level is key support—losing it could lead to further downside, while a recovery above $0.338–0.350 would be the first sign of improving momentum.
Stay patient, wait for confirmation, and always manage your risk. 📉
#DailyOrbit @OKX中文 Markets don't reward hope—they reward discipline.
With recession fears, black swan speculation, and global uncertainty growing, I'm not rushing into longs.
If $BTC and $ETH bounce into key resistance, I'll be watching for short opportunities instead of chasing green candles.
Japan and South Korea have already shown how quickly sentiment can flip. If risk-off accelerates globally, weak hands could get wiped out fast.
Stay patient. Protect your capital. There will always be another trade.
What's your plan—buy the dip or wait for confirmation?
#DailyOrbit #FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight $BTC $ETHLet me summarize a very counterintuitive phenomenon: the company made a fortune, but the stock price actually crashed.
While SK Hynix's profits soared, the Korean stock market experienced a shocking plunge.
The reason is simple: early on, everyone bet on AI storage, the stock price soared ahead of schedule, and everyone waited for the earnings report to go further. But the positive news didn't exceed expectations, and the funds were immediately cashed out and exited.
Moreover, Korean investors generally prefer to use leverage to trade stocks, and any drop can trigger chain liquidations and amplify the decline.
The market should never judge price movements based on static financial reports; expectations are far more important than current performance.
A reminder: leverage is a double-edged sword, and extreme market risks far exceed expectations. $#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks have experienced sharp fluctuations Kaito's major revamp is here, and the platform's token has surged rapidly, rising from below $1 to nearly $1.3. NFTs also seem to have increased a bit. Here are some key updates—everyone, take a look.
💠 Project teams can use flexible evaluation criteria to attribute rewards, including: mindshare share, clicks, registrations, deposits, in-platform activities... and many other indicators.
In the previous version, you just had to write tweets, compete for MindShare %, and then distribute rewards based on rankings, but this only brought buzz to the project team, not actual users. Plus, the entire X timeline would turn into just talking about tweets.
In the new version of MindShare, the proportion of % may not be as important, mainly based on registration clicks, deposit count, trading volume ... and other actual revenue generation impacts will be even greater.
💠 For Pre-TGE projects, the platform offers a dedicated format with no service fees. Instead, the project team must provide a refundable "deposit" that coexists with the reward pool, allowing creators to know the funds have been committed before posting. Each event announces the token distribution pool and vesting terms in advance, allowing creators to clearly understand their earnings and timeline.
Previously, there was no deposit system; project teams could freely change event rules, and even TGE could bypass contracts and directly buy creator labor for free, as seen in Humanity's $H token.
The new version requires the project team to provide a deposit. If the token reward pool airdrop rule is not fulfilled during TGE, the deposit will be forfeited and distributed to creators, effectively adding an extra layer of protection. No need to worry about spending a lot of time and ending up with nothing.
💠 Eighty percent of each token pool will be allocated to creators who deliver results, while the remaining 20% will be given to $KAITO token stakers and YT-sKAITO holders, which corresponds to an annualized return of about 136%. Long-term stakers and Yapybara holders will receive multiplier bonuses for their commitments.
Overall, it's similar to previous versions. Stakers not only receive Kaito token rewards themselves, but also receive additional token airdrops from the project. However, this annualized return rate is floating. In a bear market, if there aren't many projects with a lot of TGE, it drops to around 20~30%. In a bull market, it may exceed 200% APY, depending on market conditions and the number of pre-TGE projects.I opened a long order for KR200
This is an index tracking the top 200 Korean stock companies in South Korea
It has already dropped 50% in the past month
If you put it in A-shares, it's a desperate crash
Considering Koreans' gambling nature and recklessness,
as well as Lee Jae-myung's gradually declining approval ratings and his previous bullish remarks about the stock market
The national team is not far off stepping in to save the market
In short, the stock market should also be political: $SKHY $KR 200 Tonight, the market will face three key variables.
Tonight, the global market's attention will focus on three core events.
I believe what truly affects the market is not a single piece of news, but how funds reprice risk after multiple factors accumulate.
First, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
The market is focused not only on whether interest rates will be adjusted, but more importantly on the Fed's latest statements on inflation, the economy, and future policy path.
If a dovish signal is released, risk asset sentiment is expected to improve; If the wording remains hawkish, short-term market volatility could be further amplified.
Second, the financial reports of tech giants.
The performance of tech companies like Microsoft and Meta will directly affect the risk appetite of global tech sectors.
If the earnings report exceeds expectations, it is expected to boost sentiment in the AI industry chain and growth stocks; Conversely, if earnings or guidance fall short of market expectations, tech stocks may continue to come under pressure, and the crypto market will find it difficult to remain completely independent of external trends.
Third, the situation in the Middle East.
Recently, geopolitical conflicts have repeatedly escalated, causing international oil prices to rise again.
If oil prices continue to rise, the market may renew concerns about inflationary pressures, and expectations for future Fed rate cuts could be affected, increasing volatility in global risk assets.
Why are these three events so important?
Because they represent three forces influencing the market:
• Monetary policy determines global liquidity;
• Corporate earnings determine risk appetite;
• Geopolitics determine risk aversion.
When all three factors change simultaneously, funds often readjust their asset allocation, which is why market volatility tends to amplify significantly during major events.
The more you approach major events, the less you should rush to bet on direction.
Waiting for news to materialize, observing capital flows and market feedback, and then trading with the trend is often more prudent than guessing in advance.
News affects sentiment, capital determines trends. What truly deserves attention this week is not who says what, but the three major variables—interest rates, earnings reports, and geopolitical dynamics—which will ultimately push funds out. $BTC #美联储即将公布利率决议 Guys, the US session has opened. Analyzing SanDisk's early morning open, it opened lower and rebounded slightly to the trapped zone around 1150U. After retail investors bottom-fished and entered, institutions poured in large short orders, quickly breaking through the day's short-term support at 1050.72U; Afternoon waterfall decline: all support was lost, quantitative stop-losses and leveraged ETFs triggered passive closing orders, prices plunged downward, with the day's maximum drop expected at 12%-18%, testing the medium-term support at 990U; Late session with no volume and a shadowy decline: After being oversold, there was a brief slight rebound, with no new capital entering the market. Remaining profit-taking positions continued to be realized, closing at an intraday low, closing with a super long green bearish candlestick, further confirming the bearish trend. Market expects the Fed to keep interest rates high #Fed to announce interest rate decision, US Treasury yields continue to rise, funds are withdrawing from high-volatility storage and AI hardware sectors to consumer and pharmaceutical defense assets, and incremental capital continues to flow out, further intensifying SanDisk's selling pressure. 1. In Q4, the price increases for NAND flash continued to shrink, with institutions continuously lowering SanDisk's full-year profit guidance, further compressing valuations; 2. Changxin Memory continues to expand production, with global flash memory supply expected to be oversupplied in 2027, leading to a downward trend in industry gross margins; 3. AI computing hardware procurement budgets continue to tighten, slowing long-term SSD demand growth; The short-term bearish trend is clear: 1050U is only an intraday sentiment support, while the 1278U and 1600U levels are tightly trapped in selling pressure, severely suppressing the rebound height $SNDK $BTC At 2 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. This time, the market's focus is not just on "whether to cut rates," but on what signals the Fed will send next. Currently, the mainstream market expectation is to keep interest rates unchanged. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of maintaining current rates at the July meeting remains high. The expectation of a 25 basis point cut has not completely disappeared, but funds have already started trading in another possibility: if the Fed remains cautious or even signals a hawkish stance, the market may readjust its expectations for the pace of future rate cuts. Why are you so conflicted now? On one hand, U.S. inflation is indeed cooling slowly, and the market hopes to see further monetary policy easing; On the other hand, energy prices, tariff impacts, and uncertainties in some economic data have made the Fed hesitant to ease restrictions too soon. For the Fed, the toughest problem right now is: cutting rates too early could cause inflation to resurface;
Cutting rates too late could put pressure on the economy. So for this meeting, the market's real focus may not be on interest rate figures, but on the speeches after the meeting. If a dovish signal is released, it could mean that expectations for future rate cuts may heat up, the US dollar weakens, and risk assets like BTC and ETH may find support. But if the attitude is cautious, even suggesting inflation risks persist, the market may experience short-term volatility and funds return to safe-haven positions. The crypto market has already started reacting early. Before the FOMC meeting, BTC and ETH were clearly sensitive$114 $XSPCX, surging and retreating, still daring to chase?
Let's look at the market first: this isn't the kind of strong trend you can blindly rush in; rather, it looks more like a pull up and the market is testing each other's positions.
At 22:23 Beijing time on July 29, OKX spot data showed a $XSPCX of 113.87, a 24-hour increase from 110.37 to a high of 118.13 and a low of 110.12, an increase of 3.17%. The turnover was about 6.6039 million USDT, and the 24-hour VWAP was at 115.16. The price is now below VWAP, and also below the 1H MA7 at 115.33 and the MA20 at 115.52, indicating that the rally during the day is still ongoing, but short-term trading is no longer the most comfortable time to chase prices.
The first contradiction is that while gains rank at the top, the market is not as excited. According to OKX's official listing notes, XSPCX/USDT is a Unified Tokenized Stocks spot trading pair, not crypto assets like XRP, XLM, or XAUT. Looking sideways, among the same batch of tokenized US stocks, XSNDK fell 4.23%, XSOXL dropped 3.21%, XAMD dropped 1.57%, while XSPCX still rose 3.17%, showing relative strength. However, out of the last 100 transactions, only 22.36% were actively purchased, indicating that few people chased after it; more were people pulling and trading at high levels.
The second contradiction is that the transaction volume is sufficient, but the depth reminds you not to be too heavy. Currently, buy one at 113.85, sell one at 113.88, spread 0.03, about 0.026%, which looks very tight; But the 0.5% deep buy order is about 140,600 USDT, the sell order is about 102,000 USDT, and the 1% depth is only 149,900 and 113,100 USDT. Small positions are fine, but heavy positions can cause slippage to be more obvious than you think.
The third contradiction is that the trend hasn't broken yet, but the short-term market has already started to cool down. The 1H RSI 14 is only 34.81, ATR is around 1.35, down 1.43% in the past 2 hours and 1.18% in the 6 hours, but the 3-day range remains +1.81%. This isn't a crash; it's a breather after hitting around 118.
For positions, I will focus on the third tier: 112.3-113 is the short-term support zone. If it breaks below and cannot recover, it means the momentum of this wave is losing effect first; 110.1 is the 24-hour low and also a stronger defensive line; The first resistance above is 115.2-115.6; only a rebound can be seen as reclaiming the VWAP and 1H moving average, and 118.1 is the real threshold today.
In the short term, it can hold sideways near 113, so you can observe the quality of the rebound at 115.5. If you can't stand, don't rush to chase. From a swing perspective, only when the volume rises and the price rises above 118 can we talk about space beyond 120. In the medium to long term, tokenized assets like OKX can be traded 24/7, but the early market depth is still long. The core is not to predict a day's rise or fall, but to see if trading volume can consistently stay above the million level.
This position is worth watching, but don't assume it's strong and risk-free.
#XSPCX #OKX #代币化美股 #UnifiedTokenizedStocks #RWAEthereum's support at 1850 has not been broken, and following the script, Dodan has taken 43 points
$ETH #美联储即将公布利率决议 #Alkanes Ecosystem Data Tracking | On-chain indicators are strengthening 📊 across the board
On-chain kernel data provides clear bullish signals!
$DIESEL and ecosystem token prices edged higher, with TVL, frBTC, and gold inventory all reaching new all-time 📈 highs
1. Net inflow of frBTC
Cumulative net inflow was 107.2 BTC, with a single-day increase of +5.7 BTC; 24-hour net inflow +0.42 BTC.
Major players continue to enter and build positions, with cumulative net inflows of frBTC reaching a record high.
2. $DIESEL LP liquidity depth
The AMM pool size is 12.74 million U, +2% quarter-on-quarter, with liquidity pools accounting for 36% of the token market cap, and TVL hitting a new high.
3. $FIRE Cash in Stock and Earnings
Treasury deposits were 12.3 million, up +1.7% week-on-week, setting a new record high; The current APY is 133%.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Disclaimer: Only on-chain data is objectively compiled and does not constitute any investment advice.