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People say Trump has switched to drawing $CL crude oil lines, but it's really just this guy making money from it. (This old guy is lying in bed holding his phone. Sigh, Friday's comments seem like they can't rise any further. Forget it, just short the price and then another round of statements.)
But this is just making money; real conflict is impossible. A week ago, I posted that rising crude oil prices are unfavorable for inflation, but accelerating declines won't immediately lead inflation. So with only a few months left until the midterm elections, he doesn't dare to push oil prices too sharply. The final result is that by the end of this month or mid-September, the US and Iran will fully reconcile. Even if not, it will end with a soft landing and a final finish.
Of course, I'm not saying this to make everyone go all-in, nor to pressure me to be right. Mistakes require costs to bear, and I can accept them within my own limits.Let's start with the recent hacking incident.
Gold Cart was hacked, with approximately $88 million worth of Bitcoin stolen. But looking back at history, whether it was the Bybit incident in early 2025 or the FTX collapse in 2022, such panic events were often short-term disruptions. Over a longer cycle, Bitcoin's major trend will continue to break upward. This is market noise, not a change in direction.
But what truly needs to be watched out is the August curse with the official opening.
Bitcoin's historical average return in August was -7%, making it the worst month of the year, with August and September typically the most bearish months. Now officially enter this window.
In the short term, the two core watersheds must be closely watched. 62,700 is currently the most critical support zone for trading volume, having provided strong support multiple times before. If the closing line breaks below it, it will trigger an accelerated downward plunge. 67,000 is the core resistance level; only a strong breakout and a solid closing line can confirm the start of a new main upward wave.
A highly damaging signal is flashing behind — a bearish crossover has appeared on the 3-day random RSI. Over the past year, every time this indicator appears in a bearish crossover, Bitcoin subsequently pulls back at least 30%. Although the indicator is not 100% absolute, the high win rate over the past year is something we should be very wary of. Meanwhile, open interest and funding rates remain high, while prices are declining, indicating that the momentum for downward long-term leverage washing has not yet been fully released.
At the macro level, the "Clarity Act" on August 7 will bring the biggest dark horse variable. When the last bill was announced to be delayed, Bitcoin plunged about 38% in a short period. If it is delayed again this time, the market will face an extremely severe downward shock next week.
Strategically, I am very clear. Continue to hold your long bottom position, never closing out arbitrarily due to short-term sentiment, to avoid missing out on the big bottom. The ultimate bottom-fishing range is locked in between 60,000 and 47,000, with the bottom expected to form around the fourth quarter. Once the price falls into this range, it will trigger the most aggressive accumulation mode.
Keep a close eye on the 62,700 defensive line and the August 7 bill update, holding your position firmly.7月，标普500等权指数上涨1.1%，纳斯达克100却下跌6.6%，两者差距达到7.6个百分点。 这不是资金突然不相信AI。 恰恰相反，7月仍有约200亿美元流入科技ETF。真正改变的是：资金不再愿意用任何价格，继续追逐少数AI龙头。 微软、亚马逊证明云和AI可以赚钱，存储、芯片需求也没有消失。但当估值、资本开支和盈利预期同时被拉满，企业只要“没有继续超预期”，股价就会先杀一轮。 所以这一轮暴跌，暂时还不是AI产业崩塌。 它更像一次定价权重置： 以前只要沾上AI就涨，现在必须拿出现金流。 AI的故事还在继续，但闭眼买入的阶段，可能已经结束了。Crowding and Crowding List
The more orderly the positions are, the more you need to check whether the price is still willing to cooperate.
$GRVT Current rate -0.0750%, closed in the past 24 hours -0.101%, at the 39th percentile of the most recent sample. Prices rise in sync with holdings; short-term trading is not just about replenishing old positions. The historical percentile of the same coin is not extreme; let's first observe the structure of the regular price portfolio. The historical sample contains only 18 settlement points, so the quantiles are currently only auxiliary.
$HOME Current rate -0.0440%, closed in the past 24 hours -0.090%, at the 39th percentile of the most recent sample. Reducing positions after a 15-minute rise is more like a push for short position filling or overall withdrawal, with new bullish positions yet to be confirmed. Positions are declining, crowded positions are retreating first, and the current focus is when the pace of reduction will slow down.
$SATS Current rate -0.0362%, closed in the past 24 hours -0.087%, at the 2nd percentile of the most recent sample. Prices are rising, and positions are also rising, with short-term funds expanding their risk exposure. Bears are paying a price, but prices rise along with increased positions. Currently, this is unfriendly to bears, and the pullback will determine the strength of this phase.$RSR — RESERVE RIGHTS
The silence before the storm is beginning to disappear. Buyers are returning, altcoin momentum is strengthening, and the market is once again showing signs that capital may be rotating toward assets that have remained compressed for too long.
$RSR is trading near $0.001301, up approximately 4.58%. The visible gain suggests positive momentum, but the full volume figure is obscured in the image, so the strength of participation cannot be assessed confidently from this snapshot alone.
The next major level to watch is $0.00134–$0.00136. A clean breakout above this region with rising volume could confirm continuation and attract additional momentum traders. If dominance continues shifting toward altcoins, $RSR may benefit from broader market rotation.
The immediate support zone is between $0.00124 and $0.00130. Holding this region would keep buyers in control. A breakdown below $0.00119 would weaken the recovery and increase the possibility of another move lower.
EP: $0.00124–$0.00130
TP1: $0.00136
TP2: $0.00145
TP3: $0.00158
SL: $0.00118Solana is showing fresh energy, and traders are paying attention. $SOL /USDT is trading around $73.19, up 1.72% in the last 24 hours. After dropping to $70.58, buyers stepped in with confidence and pushed the price back above $73. This strong recovery shows that Solana still has solid buying interest despite recent market pressure. Here are the latest market numbers: Current Price: $73.19 24H High: $73.67 24H Low: $70.58 24H Volume: 458.29K SOL 24H Turnover: 33.20M USDT The 15-minute chart shows$SNDK dropped 55% in 36 days, while BTC took 268 days and silver 169 days for peers to pull back, with the storage sector's correction seven to eight times faster. Pre-market panic has already begun to recover, with Micron, SanDisk, and Seagate all turning positive, but the shadow of Kioxia's earnings last week falling short of expectations and a 10% ADR drop has yet to fade. After the market closed on August 5, SanDisk released its earnings report. The direction of AI enterprise SSD demand and NAND contract prices will determine whether this correction bottoms out or falls again. Focus on changes in management's wording regarding next quarter's gross margin guidance.
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, the largest single-day gain in history. #折旧年限延至25年, Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance was loweredУСИЛЕННОЕ ПОДАВЛЕНИЕ ЛИВЕРИДЖА В ЮЖНОЙ КОРЕЕ МОЖЕТ ПЕРЕФОРМИРОВАТЬ ВОЛАТИЛЬНОСТЬ $BTC
📉 Финансовые регуляторы Южной Кореи только что применили к ETF с плечом кувалду — разрешив экстренное снижение коэффициента плеча с 2x до 1x без какого-либо голосования бенефициаров. Это огромный сдвиг: вместо уборки последствий после обвала они душат волатильность до того, как она вспыхнет.
Для трейдеров послание звучит громко: эпоха дешёвого, «турбо»-усиленного плеча сокращается. Базевая маржа уже выросла втрое до 30 млн KRW, и они прикидывают ограничение по плечу в 20% плюс обязательное симуляционное трейдинг-тестирование для крупных участников. Это прямой удар по той самой цепочке ликвидаций, которая обычно просачивается в $BTC .
#OKXTraderVoices #NewHereStartHere This is pure nonsense, just my personal take:
1. Launch a mainnet that uses SHIB as gas
2. Merge $BEAT $BTC ONE, and $TREAT into one single token
3. Make SHIBOSHIS the official NFT and give them a small airdrop allocation
4. Shib Land – honestly I don’t see anyone building a metaverse on it, that stuff is insanely hard, so just fold it into the same merged token
5. $SNDK
??? – the new merged token
SHIBOSHIS – NFT
$SHI – stablecoin
Call it Shib Layer or ShibChain, whatever.
I honestly think the only way to save this ecosystem is to rip everything up and start fresh. Keeping the same old playbook that’s already proven to fail isn’t gonna cut it.
@shibarium_ @kaaldhairya#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is imminent. 1. Financial reports support the bottom, proving the bubble to be false
The first financial report after listing is released; as long as revenue and Starlink user numbers meet targets, it can break doubts about "purely storytelling" and provide solid fundamental support
2. Unlocking is about all negative news being exhausted, not a sell-off
The pessimistic expectation of unlocking the 100 billion yuan limit has already driven the stock price to nearly halved in advance, leaving no doubt about the boot hitting the ground; Musk and core long-term shareholders will not make large reductions, so the actual selling pressure is much smaller than the paper volume. When the circulating market expands, it can actually accommodate large institutional funds entering the market
3. High short positions = natural upward fuel
34% of the outstanding shares were shorted, and the bears have already made substantial gains. As long as the stock price rebounds slightly, a large number of short sellers will close out positions to take profits, and the buying orders from closed positions will further push the price higher, easily triggering a short squeeze
4. Exclusive track with no competitors
Recyclable rockets, Starlink global broadband, Starship Deep Space Exploration—all are monopoly businesses unique worldwide, with no competitors of the same scale, no ceiling for long-term growth, and are scarce core assets like $SPCX U.S. Treasury yields have soared to their highest level in 2019, all due to Walsh's repeated actions and his actions.
1. What everyone values when buying US Treasuries is stability. When Wash first took office, he loudly declared he would crack down on inflation, but inflation remained high. When the Fed voted, he held back, not even mentioning whether there would be future rate hikes.
This kind of verbal threat, but actually doing nothing, made bond-buying institutions sweat profusely and completely refuse to trust him.
2. The surge in U.S. Treasury yields simply means that no one wants government bonds anymore, and interest rates must be raised to find someone to take over. Not only does Wash not only break his promises, but he also abandoned his tradition of early policy announcements.
When people can't understand the direction of policy, their long-term US Treasuries become hot potatoes. So many choose to sell; the more people sell, the higher the yield naturally pushed to its highest level in 2019.
3. The market sell-off was actually an ultimatum expressing dissatisfaction, but Walsh had no intention of backing down; instead, he began to pursue internal centralization.
He not only silenced other internal officials and forbade them from speaking to outsiders, but also set up a dedicated working group himself, taking decision-making power into his own hands. Turning the Federal Reserve into a one-man institution, and in the future, cooperating with the Trump administration to forcibly cut interest rates.
4. The Federal Reserve has lost its independence and certainty, and the foundation of the traditional financial system has also been shaken.
When traditional government bonds are no longer safe and policies are decided by one person, safe-haven funds in the market will inevitably have to seek new ways out.
For the crypto market, the crisis of trust in the U.S. Treasury system is actually a moment to highlight the value of decentralized assets.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 Fundamental Research Report $SHIB / Shiba Inu (Meme/Pay) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: Shiba Inu ($SHIB) has an overall score of 48/100, rated as an early-stage project, but lacks validation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's start with the project: Shiba Inu (token $SHIB), Meme/Payments track. Focusing on ETH Meme + Shibarium. Benchmarking against DOGE and FLOKI. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Let's look together with peers (unified standards, no cross-sector comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Shiba Inu $3.00B, DOGE undisclosed, FLOKI undisclosed. For FDV, Shiba Inu $4.20B, DOGE undisclosed, FLOKI undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Shiba Inu $2.00M, DOGE undisclosed, FLOKI undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Shiba Inu has not disclosed, DOGE has not been disclosed, and FLOKI has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Final judgment: Insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (Rating 48/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. The above judgment is based on publicly available data and does not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions need to be revised when key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for the content—judge for yourself.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitThe 8% surge in $PI ahead of the Protocol 26 node upgrade deadline on August 11th looks all too familiar, doesn't it? Every time the development team releases an upgrade schedule, the price jumps, but unfortunately, previous surges have been short-lived, cooling down as soon as the deadline approaches.
The biggest challenge right now is the supply and demand equation. The selling pressure from the token unlocks is immense; approximately 1.71 billion $PI will be released into the market over the next year, with over 128 million USD already consumed in August alone. Meanwhile, trading volume remains quite weak, and external buying power isn't strong enough to offset that waiting supply.Starting from the Nasdaq and cryptocurrency trends, the divergence cycle has now reached its midpoint. The root cause is the Federal Reserve's high interest rates continuously draining crypto capital, while US stocks rely on profitability to absorb massive hot money. The pricing logic of the two is completely different. Before the rate cut policy is officially implemented, liquidity conditions remain unchanged, making it difficult for Bitcoin and the Nasdaq to resume a synchronized rise and fall in a linked market, maintaining a clear pattern of one strong and one weak.🇬🇧
The market sent a very interesting message over the last two days.
First, tensions in the Middle East escalated and reports emerged about the U.S. embassy evacuation.
Bitcoin barely reacted.
Then Trump announced a de-escalation and called off the planned strikes.
Again... almost no reaction from $BTC
That tells me one thing.
Crypto is becoming far less sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
The old narrative of "war = buy Bitcoin" isn't driving the market like it used to.
Right now, the real catalyst is dollar liquidity.
That's where capital is paying attention. #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
The real test for SPCX may not be the August 4th earnings report, but the stock stock unlocking two days later.
SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings report after listing after the market closed on August 4.
According to the lock-in arrangement, on the second full trading day after the financial report is released, up to 20% of eligible insiders and employee shares can start trading.
The largest share involved is about 911.5 million shares, with a market capitalization estimated at about $109.2 billion based on recent prices.
This number is scary, but one thing must be made clear first:
Unlocking does not mean that $109.2 billion is being dumped into the market simultaneously.
The exact meaning of 'unban' is:
These stocks, which were originally unsellable, are now eligible for sale.
Holders may sell or continue to hold.
However, even if only part of the market chooses to cash out, it could significantly change the market's original supply-demand structure.
In the early days of SPCX's listing, the number of freely tradable shares was limited. With a small amount of circulating share, even a small amount of capital can cause significant price fluctuations.
After the lock-up was lifted, the market faced no longer just "whether anyone wants to buy," but also answered:
How many early shareholders are willing to sell?
Can the open market absorb new supply?
Therefore, this time we need to look at three things separately.
First, can the first financial report prove a high valuation?
The market needs to see growth in businesses like Starlink and launch services, while also assessing how much cash is being consumed by investments in heavy rockets, AI, and infrastructure.
Second, how the company describes the future.
For newly listed high-valuation companies, the numbers from the past quarter are only part of the story; future growth and funding needs may be even more important.
Third, the volume-price relationship after the lock-up was lifted.
If trading volume increases significantly but the stock price remains stable, it indicates the market is digesting new supply.
If even positive earnings reports cannot support prices and the rebound weakens after the lock-up lifts, it indicates that supply pressure may exceed new demand.
Therefore, both "lifting the lock-up will lead to a drop" and "good earnings will lead to a rise" are too simplistic.
The real question isn't whether all $109.2 billion will be sold, but whether, once new stock supply emerges, the market will still be willing to maintain the original valuation.
What do you think will be the biggest challenge for SPCX going forward?
A: Can the first financial report prove growth?
B: Pressure on stock supply after the lock-up is lifted
C: The current valuation itself is already too high
Just leave a letter in the comments.
The above is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice#亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元：押注还是泡沫
🔥亚马逊刚甩出一张500亿美元的支票，砸向了OpenAI。不是传闻，不是意向，是真金白银全额到账了。
按这轮融资算，OpenAI估值飙到了8520亿美元。亚马逊拿下了约5%的股权。
但你仔细看这笔交易的细节，会发现有意思的地方远不止估值。
500亿美元分两笔走的。今年2月先打了150亿，剩下350亿原本设了两个触发条件——OpenAI上市，或者实现AGI级别的技术突破。结果两个条件一个都没达成，亚马逊还是把剩下的钱全打过去了。
为什么？因为今年4月，OpenAI跟微软重新谈了云服务合同。之前微软对OpenAI的云服务几乎是独家控制的，AWS根本插不进去。合同一改，AWS正式拿到了向OpenAI提供算力的资格。亚马逊立马把剩下的350亿全掏了。
这500亿买的不是股权，是AWS在AI算力大战里的一张入场券。
更狠的是亚马逊的布局逻辑。左手500亿投OpenAI，右手还跟Anthropic承诺了最高330亿美元，已经到账180亿。全球最头部的两家AI实验室，全被亚马逊用钱绑住了。
绑住干什么？推自己的Trainium芯片。两家实验室都用Trainium跑训练，AWS的Bedrock平台同时提供两家的模型给客户调用。芯片有人用、模型有人卖，AWS在AI产业链的位置一下子卡住了两个关键节点。
AWS二季度营收422亿美元，同比增长37%，创2021年以来最快增速。贾西的原话是“AWS正在蓬勃发展”。
而OpenAI这边，ChatGPT周活用户快破10亿了，到2030年的算力开支预期上调到了7500亿美元。
一边是云巨头把AI实验室当战略支点往死里砸钱，一边是实验室拿钱继续烧算力——这循环一旦转起来，钱和算力只会越来越集中。
OpenAI拿了钱继续买算力，AWS收了钱继续扩产能，Trainium有了规模就能跟英伟达掰手腕。这笔500亿的交易，表面上是估值游戏，骨子里是算力战争的一次关键落子。
评论区聊聊，你觉得亚马逊这500亿花得值不值？👇SOL community speed reached 0.93 times: Tone and added attention are viewed separately
SOL's hot numbers aren't hard to read; the challenge is not to mix tone and funding direction.
OKX Onchain OS recorded 16 mentions of SOL in one hour at 17:00 on August 2nd (China time), including 16 x mentions and 0 news reports; The total volume in 24 hours was 414.
The latest hour is 0.93 times the hourly average for Long Windows, which is about 7% lower than the 24-hour average, and can be classified as 'roughly close to the Long Window Average.' This speed describes new discussions and is not necessarily related to market fluctuations.
The tone of the text is bullish at 44%, bearish at 19%, and neutral at about 37%, currently indicating a clear bullish bias. 24-hour bullish 55%, bearish 11%; If there is a gap between the two windows, it should first be understood as a change in the discussion structure, rather than directly deriving a price target.
I will draw these two lines separately. If the tone is too heavy but the speed of mention is slower, it means the current discussion is more positive, but the new attention hasn't accelerated; If mentions are rising and bearish are dominant, it may be risk or fault news attracting people. Even if the hype and tone are in the same direction, it still cannot be directly equated with genuine buying.
Source is another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels respond fastest, and the same topic can be reposted repeatedly; The more concentrated the source, the more the next window needs confirmation. News mentions that an increase does not automatically mean the event is true; the original announcement remains the final verifying standard.
Within twenty-four hours, SOL's X and news mentions were 400 and 14 times, respectively; One hour means 16 and 0 times. If short windows are more focused on X than long windows, sensitivity should be increased to forwarding and single narratives; If the proportion of news increases, also check whether the same material is actually being restated.
What really matters are SOL's on-chain transaction success rate, fees, active addresses, and main application usage, combined with spot trading, perpetual contract funding rates, and open interest. These data answer usage needs and leverage participation, and popular rankings cannot replace them.
Time differences also need to be watched for. The 414 24-hour samples span different market periods; dividing by 24 is just for comparison convenience and does not mean the same volume of discussion every hour. A single deviation from the mean should be observed first, not as a trend completion.
How can you tell that it was just noise? The next round of mentions increased, but the tone quickly returned to neutral. This time, the sense of direction was mostly due to a small sample size. If the speed of mentions continues to rise and the sources expand from a single community, attention will gradually stabilize. In the end, what can change judgments is still continuous data, not a louder slogan.
Let's note three things for now: SOL discussions generally follow the long-window average, while the short-term window's tone is clearly more favorable, and it's almost entirely driven by X. If the speed continues and the sources become more diverse, and transactions and on-chain data also echo, this observation can be pushed forward further; Before that, put them on the watch list and don't rush to run.After the market on August 3, Palantir; after the market on August 4, AMD and SpaceX; before the market on August 5, Circle
These earnings reports are coming up. In the last round, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple all exceeded revenue expectations, but their stock performances were completely divergent. The market now looks beyond just "whether there is growth" to whether the growth is sustainable, whether capital expenditures are justified, and whether the guidance for the next quarter is strong enough.
Coinbase's revenue dropped about 18.5% year-over-year, Robinhood's crypto revenue also declined significantly, but Tether delivered an extremely impressive profit. Now the pressure basically falls on Circle.
Personally, I am most focused on Circle. It is not just a stablecoin issuer but more like the core target of crypto dollar infrastructure. USDC circulation, interest income, channel revenue sharing, and management's judgment on the future interest rate environment will all directly affect the market's valuation of it.
$XCRCL
Besides that, AMD is watched to see if its AI chips can continue to gain market share, and Palantir is watched to see if its high valuation can be justified by its performance.
#财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴 #财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale
Next week, the earnings season will reach its final peak, with more than a quarter of S&P 500 constituents due to submit their submissions. SpaceX, AMD, SanDisk, Western Digital, and the grand finale Circle lined up for four days.
The most closely watched is definitely SpaceX, whose first financial report after listing will be released after market close on August 5. An even bigger problem is that on the same day, 911.5 million shares were unlocked, but now only 640 million are outstanding. Short sellers have already gathered early, with 219.3 million shares being empty, accounting for 34% of tradable shares. The stock price fell from 200 to below 110. If this earnings report doesn't produce anything substantial, it might have to crash again on the day the lock-up is lifted.
AMD released after the market closed on the same day. The AI chip sector has been in a tough run lately. Microsoft and Amazon's cloud businesses are accelerating, but AI hardware stocks themselves are declining. Whether AMD's earnings report can hold up largely determines the market's answer to the question of "how much longer AI chip demand can last."
The storage side is under even greater pressure. Kioxia's earnings report last week fell short of expectations, and its ADR dropped by 10%. SanDisk and Western Digital were released after trading on Wednesday, and storage stocks have already fallen hard this month. SK Hynix has pulled back over 40% from its peak, and SanDisk fell nearly 40% in July. If this financial report is still "not good enough," the storage sector may have to keep falling.
Circle was pre-market on Thursday, with Wall Street expecting earnings per share of $0.19 and revenue of $734.7 million. Before the earnings report, Bernstein lowered the target price from 190 to 140. The market is most concerned about two things—whether USDC's circulating supply can reach 80 billion, and whether renewing the distribution agreement with Coinbase will lower profit margins. As the first stablecoin stock, Circle's financial report also serves as a test of the crypto industry's compliance narrative.
Last week, Microsoft and Amazon proved with their performance that spending money on AI can indeed yield returns, with both stock prices surging. However, AI hardware and storage stocks continue to be under pressure. Next week's financial reports will basically determine whether this round of correction is a temporary bottom or if there are deeper pitfalls to step on.While BTC gently swayed in the weekend evening breeze, SKHYNIX's market was like a tightly compressed spring. Tonight, $TRUMP and $WLD drained the most active liquidity from the market, while news that the #CLARITY Act missed the recess window has shrouded mid-cap altcoins including SKHYNIX in regulatory uncertainty. The 4-hour and 1-hour volatility contracted simultaneously, and the market's anticipation was intense—both bulls and bears were lowering their voices, waiting for the first shot.
First, look at the 4-hour drawing board, which determines the direction. The recent swing point sequence HL→LH→LL→LH→HL→LH, resembles a trail of gradually declining footprints. Bears completed a downward BOS at 884.17, marking the most critical blow for the entire structure. Judging by this strike alone, the direction was off the air. But the OI quadrant tells us an interesting detail: price_down_oi_down—prices are falling, and open interest is also decreasing. This isn't a big net to build short positions, but rather old bulls massively selling their chips. The bears did not press the advantage but chose to pocket the advantage. This means most of the downward momentum has been exhausted, but don't expect an immediate reversal, as the buying funds are also watching from the sidelines. On the 4-hour chart, six effective regions are densely arranged, forming step-downward steps, each bearing the weight of the trapping disk.
Looking at another hour, the market gave a slightly different clue. Structural events occurred in CHoCH, indicating a bullish direction, with a price of 1137.76, marking the first micro-level rebound. However, the latest Delta is -8960, and active sell orders are still suppressed on intraday trading; CVD has not shown divergence—prices are rebounding, but "money" has not clearly bought in, so the quality of the rebound is not high. The funding rate is -0.0011, at a 0.03 rank. This figure indicates that very few people dare to hold long positions in the perpetual market. While the short squeeze is crowded, it also fuels future short squeezes. Looking at the strong liquidation clues: On July 29, 30, and 31, there were consecutive sharp declines in OI, with a single candlestick on the 31st showing a 18.78% drop in OI. Those long undershadows are the scratches from the bullish lever being cleaned. After scars, recurrence often occurs.
Overall, my tendency is clear: the 4-hour bearish structure has not yet recovered, but the 1-hour oversold rebound has already begun, making it the most appropriate definition of a "corrective rebound within a bearish trend." The direction is not to blindly buy the dip, but to wait for the rebound to reach key resistance before using small positions to look for opportunities.
Provide a specific plan. If the price rebounds to the 1130-1150 range, especially near 1150 if stagnation or a long upper shadow appears, you can enter the market to short, with a stop loss above 1200, targeting 1040 and 960, and keeping your position within 15%. This is a trend-following strategy based on the 4-hour BOS short structure. If the price retests 930-950 and the 1-hour CHoCH low is not broken, you can use a 10% position for a short long wave, with a stop loss of 900 and targets at 1050 and 1137. Note that once it breaks below 900, the 4-hour bears will completely take over, rendering all short-term long logic invalid. When the rebound stagnates, consider chasing shorts.
On the news side, the "CLARITY Act missing the recess window" is not an isolated event; it directly delayed the implementation of the U.S. digital asset regulatory framework, making it difficult for institutional funds to price compliance premiums for altcoins. Over the past week, several technical progress announcements in the SKHYNIX ecosystem that should have stirred short-term sentiment turned into one-off pulses due to a lack of macro support. Instead, funds flowed into narrative-independent stocks like TRUMP and PEPE, leaving SKHYNIX in a forgotten corner. The large order data was unusually quiet, and the main players seemed unwilling to attract attention at this point.
Therefore, rather than betting on an immediate reversal, it's better to wait for the market to make its statements clear. When the price repeatedly rubs around 1000, do you prefer to short at 1150 or go long at 950? Feel free to share your plans in the comments section, so we can observe the next steps of the funds together.
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 $SKHYNIX $COTI $FIGHT $WLD $TRUMP $1000 PEPE $ESPORTS $DOGE 链上转账与平均持币时间 —— 持有者在失去耐心
⏳ 链上指标“平均持币时间”（Average Coin Age）显示，DOGE 的持币时间在过去 7 天下降 8.2%，意味着老币开始移动，部分长期持有者在卖出或换手。这是短期利空信号。
📤 转账数量分析：过去 24 小时，价值超过 100 万美元的大额转账共 17 笔，总额约 2,800 万 DOGE（约 196 万美元），较前日减少 35%。大额转账活跃度降低，表明鲸鱼动作减少。
📉 每日活跃地址数约 42,000，较 7 月中旬 58,000 明显下降。转账笔数约 28,000 笔/天，处于 2025 年以来低位。链上活动冷淡，缺乏内生动力。
📊 利润/亏损状态：当前$DOGE 持仓盈利地址占比仅 34%，即 2/3 的持有者处于浮亏。这些亏损筹码主要集中在 0.075 - 0.085 区间。因此 0.075 是重要阻力，一旦反弹至该区间将遭遇解套卖压。
🔹 支撑方面，0.068 附近集中了大量换手套牢盘，若跌至该区间，割肉盘减少，可能形成短期底部。
🧠 结论：$DOGE 链上数据偏空，持有者信心不足，但已接近超卖。若要反弹，需要外力推动（如 BTC 大涨或马斯克喊单）。否则，阴跌寻底的概率更大。
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 #财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴 Regarding MU's recent rebound, I think many people have misunderstood it.
Many treat it as an oversold rebound.
But I prefer to interpret it as:
The market is re-pricing AI hardware.
Recently, Micron followed the entire semiconductor sector down sharply.
Many started shouting:
AI capital expenditure has peaked, and the memory cycle is over.
However, Microsoft and Amazon successively released earnings reports, and management not only did not cut AI investment but actually continued to increase capital expenditure.
The market suddenly realized:
The real shortage is not GPUs.
But the HBM and DRAM behind the GPUs.
This is why MU was able to recover quickly.
Because AI servers can switch models, but the demand for high-bandwidth memory and storage will not disappear out of thin air.
However, I am not rushing to chase now.
The reason is simple.
Better fundamentals do not mean the stock price will keep rising.
MU's biggest risk now is no longer demand.
It is expectations.
If the next earnings report continues to prove that HBM supply is tight and data center customers are still expanding purchases, the market will continue to raise valuations.
But if management starts mentioning customer inventory adjustments, order delays, or next year's capital expenditure slowing down.
Even if performance remains good, the stock price may fall first.
This is the most interesting aspect of cyclical stocks.
They never trade today's situation.
But the supply and demand relationship six months from now.
So now I look at MU focusing on three questions:
* Are major AI companies continuing to expand CapEx?
* Is HBM supply still tight?
* Has Micron continued to raise its performance guidance?
If the answers to these three questions are still "yes,"
I will not change my view because of short-term fluctuations.
But if capital expenditure starts to cool down, I will be more cautious than just seeing MU drop 5% or 10%.
Many think MU is trading memory prices.
I increasingly feel it is really trading:
the global AI infrastructure build-out, and how long it can continue to run wild.
Just my personal market observation, DYOR. $MU 社交情绪与马斯克因素 —— 热度降至冰点
📉 根据 LunarCrush 数据，$DOGE 的社交提及量在过去 24 小时为 3,200 次，较 7 月日均 5,600 次下降 43%。情感指数（Sentiment Score）为 -0.18，属于轻度负面，且连续 8 天为负值。
🐦 马斯克近一周没有任何关于 $DOGE 的推文，其推特内容集中于 Starship 试飞和 Grok 3.0 发布。历史上，马斯克每次提及 DOGE，价格平均在 48 小时内上涨 12%，但随后回落。当前“马斯克预期”已被市场遗忘。
📊 谷歌搜索趋势“Dogecoin”热度仅为 18（峰值 100），处于过去两年最低的 5% 区间。散户兴趣极度低迷，但这也往往对应价格底部。
📈 积极信号：社交媒体负面情绪通常与价格低点重合。当散户彻底失望时，往往是聪明的入场时机。但目前缺乏驱动因素，仅凭情绪反转难以形成持续上涨。
🔮 预判：若马斯克在未来一周突然提及 $DOGE （如与 X 支付相关），价格可能瞬间拉升 15-20%。若无，则价格将继续阴跌至 0.068 甚至 0.065。建议密切关注其推特动态。#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 #财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴 Everyone keeps asking if altseason is here. I think they're asking the wrong question. Every time someone asks me, "Is this the start of altseason?" I ask them one thing first: Where's the new narrative? The last major runs in $ETH and $SOL weren't fueled by hype alone. They had fresh stories driving new capital—L2s, memes, AI agents, RWAs—each taking turns to capture attention and liquidity. But what about now? This rebound has seen most mainstream altcoins move together, yet none of them have Got tricked by Old Xu
Before staking, $OKB showed an annualized yield of 7.3%
Now that staking has just started, the true nature is revealed, not even reaching 1%
Where exactly is the core value of OKB as a platform token?
Feels like it's something you use up and then throw away.
But fortunately, the spot price has risen a bit, so that's some compensation.
#DailyOrbit #30YYieldAt19YHigh #SpaceXUnlockLooms #EarningsWeekAhead Fundamental Research Report $RDNT / Radiant (DeFi) $3.20
Essentially: Radiant ($RDNT) has an overall score of 52/100, with a rating that narrative is more important than reality. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Fundamental Analysis: Radiant (token $RDNT), DeFi sector. Focuses on cross-chain lending. Benchmarked against AAVE and COMP. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Comparing with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Radiant $3.00B, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. For FDV, Radiant $4.20B, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Radiant $2.00M, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Radiant has not disclosed it, AAVE has not disclosed it, and COMP has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. To sum up: solid fundamentals (rating 52/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Potential pitfalls: short-term large-scale unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Next, focus on these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, and GitHub version release. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
That's all for now. If you have any thoughts, see you in the comments.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitTonight's market was like a race waiting for the starting gun. EWY is rising, SOXS is falling, and the amplitudes of BZ and DEX are making your heart race—a classic pre-release scene for the knockoff season. However, SNDK's market was unusually quiet: the 4-hour volatility remained "normal," while the 1-hour volatility had contracted to "contraction." This quiet is often the prelude to a storm. Combined with news from Washington about the #CLARITY Act missing the recess window, the market's patience for regulatory pace is being worn thin, with tokens like SNDK, sensitive to compliance narratives, bearing the brunt.
Opening the 4-hour chart, SNDK's frame is not very attractive. The recent swing sequence is that the highs no longer break new highs, while the lows keep moving downward, a typical downward oscillating downward structure. The latest structural event is a downward BOS trigger at 972.2, with bears declaring sovereignty through it. Five effective zones stacked layer upon layer, like a defensive line built by the bears. What deserves more attention is the OI quadrant: price_down_oi_up — prices are falling, open interest is rising. This is not retail panic cutting losses, but big money actively shorting positions. What you think of as the bottom might just be bait in others' eyes.
The 1-hour chart offers a slight bullish hope: the latest structural event is CHoCH, with a bullish direction and a trigger point of 1254.97. It seems someone is holding the bottom in the short term. But don't rush to cheer—the latest 1-hour Delta is -3210.32, and net selling pressure remains heavy. The divergence in CVD is even more striking: the price rose 25.04 at the high, but CVD dropped by 995.95; the low rebounded up 54.58, but CVD still fell by 618.22. This shows that with every price hike, smarter money quietly releases the goods. The funding rate is 0.0005, at the 0.8th percentile, indicating high bull willingness to pay, but high fees are often a negative indicator. The market is crowded with leveraged bulls, and a slight misstep could lead to chain liquidations. In the early hours and evening of July 30, OI plummeted by 5.07% and 5.73% respectively, marking two bloody forced flat stomping spikes. Now, leverage is re-accumulating, but the direction is leaning toward the bears. The absence of large order data means no clear footsteps from major funds entering the market.
Therefore, my core view is: short-term rebounds remain bearish in the medium term, and SNDK is still in a "short on rallies" pattern.
- Scenario 1 (high probability): The price rebounds to the 1250-1260 range, and within 1 hour stagflation signals appear (Delta weakens, CVD continues to fall). You can take a light short position, enter at 1250-1260, stop loss above 1280, first take profit at 1200, second take profit at 1150. Keep your position within one-third of your total funds.
- Scenario 2 (low probability): The price directly breaks below the 1200 integer level, releasing bearish momentum for a second time. You can chase shorts accordingly, with an entry price near 1195, stop loss at 1220, and targets at 1150 and 1100. The position also does not exceed one-third.
- Scenario 3 (Reversal Alert): If the price stabilizes above 1254.97 with increased volume, and the 1-hour Delta turns positive and CVD rebounds in sync, then all the above short positions are canceled, switching to a wait-and-see approach or waiting for confirmation of pullback before light positions and testing long. Entry price near 1254, stop loss at 1235, target 1280-1300. But before the 4-hour bearish structure is reversed, I do not recommend anyone to go long against the trend.
The underlying trend behind this round of decline is not just technical. The CLARITY Act missing the adjournment window means the long-awaited regulatory clarity in the crypto market will be delayed once again. For tokens like SNDK that have always told compliance stories, the longer the delay lasts, the less patience the capital becomes. In the past week, market hotspots have clearly leaned toward stocks backed by traditional assets like ESG and INTC, while SNDK stocks that require expectations have been neglected. Money is honest; they are voting with their feet.
Do you think SNDK will first fill the bullish signal gap at 1254, or will it fall below 1200 first, disappointing the bottom-fishers? Feel free to share your location in the comments section.
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 $SNDK $EWY $SOXS $BZ $INTC $DEXE $ERA Reviewing the geopolitical script of the past two days: first, the Middle East escalated and the US embassy evacuated, yet $BTC didn't jump up; then Trump announced the cancellation of strikes and peace seemed near, but $BTC didn't crash down either. No drop on escalation, no rise on de-escalation — this indicates one thing: crypto has completely decoupled from the geopolitical risk narrative. The old logic of "buy Bitcoin during war" basically no longer works this round. The market now only recognizes one anchor: US dollar liquidity. Stop using war headlines as an entry excuse, let's wait and see. Everyone keeps asking if altseason is here. I think they're asking the wrong question.
Every time someone asks me, "Is this the start of altseason?" I ask them one thing first:
Where's the new narrative?
The last major runs in $ETH and $SOL weren't fueled by hype alone. They had fresh stories driving new capital—L2s, memes, AI agents, RWAs—each taking turns to capture attention and liquidity.
But what about now?
This rebound has seen most mainstream altcoins move together, yet none of them have a compelling new narrative that's attracting meaningful incremental capital.
Without a fresh story, a rally is often just short covering.
It can rise fast...
And it can fade just as quickly.
In this kind of market, there's no need to rush into altcoins. Protect your ammo and wait for the market to give you a real reason to deploy it.
#DailyOrbit $ETH Ecosystem fundamentals and long-term narrative — Opportunities to position at discounts
🌱 Despite short-term price sluggishness, the Ethereum ecosystem is still moving forward. Recently, EIP-7251 (which increased the maximum effective balance to 2,048 ETH) has been deployed on the testnet, allowing large node operators to merge validators, reduce network load, and improve efficiency. This upgrade is expected to go live in Q4 2026 and will benefit network performance in the long term.
🏦 Institutional Adoption: BlackRock's BUIDL fund increased holdings by 15,000 ETH this week, bringing its total holdings to 300,000 ETH, valued at about $560 million. Fidelity Ethereum Trust (FETH) saw net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling +$21 million, breaking its previous streak of outflows.
📊 DeFi total value locked (TVL) is currently $48 billion, up from last month's low of $46 billion. Aave, Uniswap, and Lido occupied the top three, with Lido's stETH share growing to 32%, indicating that staking remains a core narrative.
📉 Discount advantage: $ETH current price is 1,869 USD, while the realized price (average cost of position) is about 2,304 USD, a 19% discount. This is one of the largest discounts in the past two years. Historically, whenever the discount exceeds 15%, the average return over the following six months reaches +42%.
🔮 Long-term bearish: supply has turned inflationary (+8,500 ETH over the past 30 days), with insufficient burn due to low gas. But if prices rise above 2,000 and gas climbs back to 15 Gwei, deflation will return to normal.
📈 Long-term Bullish: Rising staking rates, declining exchange balances, L2 expansion, and institutional holdings.
🧠 Conclusion: $BTC ETH is in a long-term value trough, but in the short term, BTC's performance remains dependable. If BTC does not fall below 62,000, ETH is expected to bottom near 1,850; If macroeconomic warming occurs, the first rebound target is 2,050. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is about to be lifted. #财报观察员: Next Thursday's lottery draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale $BTC $ETH $DOGE #SPCX首份财报将公布, $100 billion unlock imminent. #美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元 #美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, embassy issues withdrawal warning. Mnemonic phrase out of control: The trust crisis behind the BNB Chain former employee token issuance case
When the phrase "Stay SAFU" comes from CZ's mouth and the incident where a former BNB Chain employee privately issued Meme coins for $628,000 using a teaching wallet becomes no longer just an isolated legal dispute, but a wake-up call for the crypto industry. The most heartbreaking aspect of this case was not the $628,000 profit figure, but the set of mnemonic phrases that should have been destroyed but leaked along with the departing employee. Like a master key that hasn't been reclaimed, it easily opened the secret door to market trust after a few months, allowing a token unrelated to the official system to precisely harvest retail investors through the credit endorsement of "BNB Chain."
This incident completely exposed the fatal gap in permission management between the crypto world and traditional finance. In traditional systems, employee resignation means account deactivation and permission revocation, all traceable and blockable. But in the self-custody crypto world, once mnemonic phrases are generated and delivered, they become absolute power, free from physical and organizational constraints. It does not become invalid due to termination of the employment relationship, nor is it voided by the company's statement. BNB Chain's urgent severance and legal accountability seem powerless in the face of established on-chain accomplied. This is not simply a personal moral hazard, but a collective silence of the entire industry under the narrative of "decentralization" regarding the fundamental proposition of "centralized permission management."
We often pin our belief in encryption on the immutability of code and community consensus, but we often overlook the most vulnerable link—people. When the foundation of trust shifts from institutions to individuals, when the security line retreats from systems to a string of words, any technical perfection can be easily broken by a single human oversight or malice. This case serves as a warning to all practitioners and investors: while embracing the vision of decentralization, one must never abandon the risk of centralization. True SAFU is not only about protecting one's private keys, but also about promoting the establishment of a permission governance system that matches the spirit of encryption while maintaining rigor. Only by incorporating the risk of "people" into the "code" considerations can trust not vanish in the instant mnemonic phrases circulate."3.8 billion Agentic Work Units, over $1 billion in Agentforce ARR."
The real watershed in AI is shifting from "whose model is smarter" to "who can embed digital employees into the enterprise."
Microsoft's $MSFT sells office entry points and identities, Google's $GOOGL and Amazon's $AMZN sell models, cloud, and storage, $NVDA NVIDIA collects computing power rents, Meta$META is stuffing AI into advertising systems, $AAPL Apple and $TSLA Tesla compete for terminal and real-world execution rights.
The next round of valuation differences among the Seven Fairies may not be just about model rankings, but about who controls payroll, workbenches, and archives.
Click the article to see more
#财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale
#亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元: Bet or bubble
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 I remember during the last bull market, everyone around me was talking about crypto
Back then, any public chain testnet could chat for three days and nights
Now, the group chat is so quiet you can hear the echoes
Then guess what.
In this round of the market, the way public blockchains play has completely changed.
Last time, everyone was competing over which TPS was faster and whose ecosystem projects had the most.
This time, the market is focused on: regulatory standards, stablecoin status, and whether AI can absorb its money.
Starting with regulation, the CLARITY Act missed the recess window again.
The compliance framework for stablecoins has been repeatedly delayed, effectively putting the pause button on the compliance roadmaps of all public chains.
Looking at where the money goes, Amazon turned around and invested $50 billion in OpenAI.
All the money is in AI, and the financing buzz in the on-chain ecosystem has clearly weakened.
The only stable thing is stablecoins—Tether earned $1.5 billion in just one quarter.
Gold has been increased to 146 tons, making asset allocation more meticulous than many listed companies.
Simply put, public blockchains no longer tell ecosystem stories; the focus is on who can become the infrastructure of the compliance era.
Ethereum ETFs still saw $265 million in outflows last Friday, and sentiment hasn't improved much.
So my judgment is that this round of public blockchains isn't about technology, but about position. Who can gain regulatory approval, who can hold their position among stablecoins and institutional funds, and who will survive longer. Short-term differentiation continues, and I bet on certainty, not slogans.
There are a few more noteworthy topics today, so let's talk about them together:
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
CLA跟踪了三个聪明钱地址，发现他们都在做同一件事
这个周末我没出门，窝在家里把链上的大额转账翻了个遍
不看不知道，一看还真给我看出点名堂
然后你猜怎么着。
三个大地址的动向，全指向同一个方向：接货。
HYPE这一轮又解押了上亿的量，搁以前这种抛压早把价格砸穿了。
结果链上显示，解出来的币刚转出，就被新的地址分批接走了。
连日企都下场了，这是头一回见日本资金主动买HYPE。
接盘的可不是散户，单笔都是几百万刀级别。
另一边Tether的季度报告也出来了，盈利15亿美金，黄金加到146吨。
稳定币巨头把钱从美债往实物黄金挪，这就是在给资产上保险。
还有Coldcard那个漏洞，受影响机型还在扩大，硬件钱包的安全问题没完。
链上看得越多越明白，大资金现在干两件事：接便宜筹码，藏实物资产。
所以我的判断是，HYPE这种解押被接住的币，短期砸盘动能没那么强了，但我不会追，先看这波接货的能不能扛住下一轮解押，链上跟一段再说。
我扫了一眼今天的消息面，有几个点想提一嘴：
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场
HYPE解押上亿还能被日企首度接盘，说明有增量资金在赌它的生态预BlackRock has started spending money on BTC's "quantum crisis," which is not science fiction
BlackRock, Coinbase, and Strategy recently formed a new organization committing $15 million to study how Bitcoin can respond to the quantum computing threat.
Previously, when quantum computing attacked BTC, many people's first reaction was:
The computer hasn't even been built yet, so what is there to worry about?
But now even an institution like BlackRock is preparing real money, which shows that this matter can no longer be treated as a joke.
The real trouble isn't that quantum computing can steal Bitcoin tomorrow.
Rather, once Bitcoin changes its signature algorithm, it involves wallets, exchanges, miners, and the entire network upgrade. Moving too slowly may leave safety risks; Acting too quickly could also trigger compatibility issues and community disputes. Industry research suggests that leading public chains generally have not yet completed quantum-signature-resistant deployments.
My view is:
Quantum computing is not a short-term negative factor for BTC prices, but it could be the most difficult technical upgrade for Bitcoin to handle in the future.
If prices fall, you can wait for a rebound; if the underlying cryptography is truly broken, there won't be enough time to argue slowly.
Many people worry about the Federal Reserve and ETFs every day, but I actually want to ask:
Do you think quantum computing is a media hype panic, or a real risk BTC will have to face sooner or later? $BTC SOL困兽犹斗：监管真空下的多空抉择
当 $HOME 在24小时内上涨逾两成，山寨季的气温显然在升高。可SOL却像一只蛰伏的困兽，在窄幅区间里反复磨蹭。4小时波动率在收缩，1小时波动率恢复正常——这不是安静，而是蓄势。更耐人寻味的是，华盛顿传来 #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 的消息。这纸法案本有望为SOL这类“证券争议”代币划清监管边界，如今却要再等一等。对SOL来说，政策上的悬而未决，恰好为资金留下了想象空间。山寨季的轮动，会轮到它吗？
把周期拉长，4小时图上的摆动点清晰地写着：LL、LH、LL、LH、LL、LH。低点不断被测试，反弹一次比一次无力，最新结构事件是一个向下的BOS——价格被砸穿至70.51。这是4小时级别的“空头宣言”。但有意思的是，OI象限给出了相反的暗示：price_down_oi_down。价格在跌，持仓量却在下降。这说明什么？是原先做多的杠杆散户在割肉离场，而不是新空头在大力进场。大资金并没有趁势追击，反而更像在旁观。下跌的动能，或许已经接近尾声。而在这条下跌通道里，市场已经画出了7个有效区域，每个区域都堆满多头尸体，也成了未来反弹的层层障碍。
转机出现在1小时图。最近摆动标签从LL、HH、HL、LH、LL、HH一路演化，最终在73.63处触发了一个bullish CHoCH。这是微观结构上的第一个止跌信号，也是多头吹响的第一声号角。1小时图的有效区域已有6个，价格在这些区域内反复试探，却没有形成有效突破。最新Delta值显示净卖单仍有-58607，证明空军还在缠斗。CVD的背离更有意思：价格反弹到高位时，CVD反而减少（背离未确认）；价格跌到低位时，CVD也大幅减少（背离不成立）。简单说，涨得犹犹豫豫，跌得也磨磨唧唧。多头没有全力以赴，空头也强弩之末。资金费率0.0001，分位0.93——永续合约市场上多头情绪已经相当拥挤，大家都在做多，谁来做燃料？强平线索为空，市场暂时没有触发连锁踩踏的导火索。
所有指标拼在一起，呈现出一幅典型的“下跌后的吸筹”画卷。我的判断很明确：短线偏多修复，中线等待方向。操作上，不建议重仓赌方向，用试探性仓位跟随突破。
第一情景：若1小时K线收盘站稳74.0美元，突破CHoCH确认成功，可轻仓做多。入场74.0-74.2，止损73.4，第一目标74.8，第二目标75.5。仓位不超过总资金的2%。
第二情景：若价格回踩72.6-72.8区间不破，且出现1小时级别止跌信号，也可做多。入场72.6-72.8，止损71.9，目标74.0、75.0。仓位1.5%。
第三情景：若4小时收盘跌破70.5美元，说明BOS继续有效，空头趋势重启。那时不要猜底，等待反抽至71.2-71.5再进空单，止损72.1，目标69.8、68.5。仓位2%。
消息面，本周SOL的ETF审批又被SEC延期了——这是近一个月内的第三次“拖字诀”。每拖一次，市场就短暂脉冲后又冷却。与此同时，FTX清算钱包的异动也让部分筹码感到不安。但CLARITY法案错过休会窗口，意味着短期监管不会更清晰，反而给了SOL在“灰色地带”讲故事的空间。机构资金暂时按兵不动，游资却在寻找下一个热点。SOL的生态数据其实一直在缓慢反弹，这为潜在突破埋下伏笔。
回到那个简单又难答的问题：SOL会先向上触摸75，还是先向下亲吻70？这个区间已经越来越窄，弹簧压得越紧，弹起来就越暴力。你愿意在哪个位置下注？来评论区告诉我你的方向和理由。
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。——
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 $SOL $HOME $DRAM $1000RATS $INTC $PROM $IDOL
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口In recent public X searches, the focus of discussions about SPCX has shifted from the "listing story" to the first financial report and the potential new supply that followed. What can be confirmed now is not a result of price fluctuations, but a chain of events: SpaceX's official announcement states that financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2026 will be released after the U.S. stock market closes on August 4; The terms of the company's prospectus are also citated clause by independent investor organizations: up to 20% of the relevant restricted shares can be transferred starting on the second full Nasdaq trading day after the quarterly financial report is released, with an additional 30% price tier.
Therefore, the financial report and the unlocking are two adjacent events, not "unlocking = inevitable decline." How much was actually sold, who would sell, and whether the market can absorb it all await disclosure and transaction data verification. Ordinary people reading this message first distinguish the confirmed date, the terms in the document, and the sentiment/target price on X; Before there is a result, don't turn expectations into facts, nor use hype as a reason for trading.I quit smoking, drinking, and staying up late, but I just can't get up in the middle of the night to check the market
He quit smoking, quit drinking, and even kept up early for a while
But every three in the morning, I still can't help but touch my phone
Unlock, open, and glance at the candlestick before my heart settles down
This is probably the fate of coin traders
Then guess what
Today, the daytime was packed with information, even more thrilling than midnight
Tether earned $1.5 billion in Q1, with gold piles reaching 146 tons
The Korean KOSPI surged 14% intraday, marking the largest single-day gain in history
The Coldcard vulnerability continues to expand, and stolen devices have yet to be recovered
On one side, money flows wildly; on the other, security incidents keep happening
This kind of hot and cold market really tests your mindset
The more stablecoins you earn, the more active the off-exchange funds become
The frenzy in Korean stocks will inevitably spill over to crypto
But the premise is that your coins are still sitting steadily in your own wallet
So my judgment is that a market recovery does not mean we can relax
BTC 63,459, I continued holding in batches without leverage
Make slow money, make money you can understand
The rest, I'll leave to time and catch up on sleep while I'm at it
Finally, let's talk about today's market hotspots, with several directions worth watching:
#Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons
Tether earned $1.5 billion in Q1, with 146 tons of gold reserves—a profitability that surpasses many listed companies. The higher the profits for stablecoin issuers, the more real the funding needs in the crypto world, and the more solid the underlying liquidity. This is a slow-moving positive factor, more worth paying attention to than short-term price fluctuations. I use it as an anchor for confidence.
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
KOSPI surged 14% in a single day, a first-ever in history. Retail investors were blaming the government for turning the stock market into a casino while charging in. Once this extreme risk appetite is established, funds will flow throughout the stock market and crypto world, with the premium and trading volume at Korean exchanges serving as important signals. I kept an eye on these data and waited until it was my turn before making my move.
#Coldcard漏洞发酵, the number of affected aircraft has expanded
The Coldcard vulnerability is still spreading, the range of device models continues to expand, and the official team has explicitly required users to transfer funds. Once the security trust of hardware wallets is compromised, it affects the confidence of the entire self-custody ecosystem. My own attitude is: first check the model, back up the mnemonic phrase, migrate if necessary, and never neglect security.
$BTC $ETH #安全 #市场情绪我就是看好这个赛道，跌了我也不走
这句话我说出来，可能有人觉得我嘴硬
但我是真的想明白了才敢说
加密这个东西，我从怀疑到研究到重仓，走了三年
中间被套过、被割过、被嘲笑过，但逻辑一直没变
然后你猜怎么着
今天的环境又给我上了一课
美债30年期收益率创19年新高，长期资金压力山大
美方还在酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，地缘随时可能炸
HYPE又遭亿元解押，日企头一回进场接盘
这种消息堆在一起，短期盘面肯定要抖
但我看的是更长的东西
美债高企恰恰说明传统资产找不到好去处
地缘越乱，避险和去中心化的需求越真实
解押有人接，说明筹码在往长期主义者手里集中
所以我的判断是，拿住看得懂的，扛住看不懂的波动
BTC 63,459，我不会因为这个位置就清仓
只会因为逻辑变了才离开
现在的每一次震荡，都是在给有耐心的人送筹码
再顺带看看最近大家都在聊啥：
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
30年期美债收益率创19年新高，长期资金的成本在飙升，风险资产的估值天花板被压低。但换个角度看，传统资产收益率再高也有通胀和信任问题，加密作为另类配置的吸引力反而在上升。我不恐慌，把它当成压力测试，继续观察资金的态度。
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警
美方把打击伊朗能源设施摆上台面，还发撤离预警，地缘风险真的到了一触即发的程度。油价一旦被点着，全球风险资产先跳水再修复，加密大概率跟着插针。我不赌战争方向，但会提前降杠杆、留现金，等极端波动过去再说。
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场
HYPE解押上亿，日企首次进场接盘，短期抛压和长期买盘在打架。这种时候散户最容易被插针洗出去，但接盘方敢在这个位置进，说明有人看到了我们没看到的价值。我不跟风，先观察解押落地后的价格反应再决定。
$BTC $ETH #长线 #地缘$ETH Gas 费与网络活跃度 —— 需求端依然低迷
⛽ 当前以太坊主网 Gas 均价仅为 5.2 Gwei，处于过去一年最低的 5% 分位。Gas 低于 10 Gwei 通常意味着网络拥堵极低，链上转账、DeFi 交互、NFT 铸造等活动冷淡。过去 7 天每日交易数约 108 万笔，较 3 月峰值 150 万笔下降 28%。
📉 但这不是完全利空 —— 低 Gas 降低了生态使用成本，可能吸引开发者部署新应用。同时，EIP-4844 后 L2 费用已降至 0.01 美元级别，大量交易迁移至 L2，主网 Gas 下降是必然趋势，不一定代表生态衰退。
📊 我们更应关注 L2 活跃度：Arbitrum 日活 42 万，Optimism 日活 38 万，Base 日活 28 万，三者合计较上月增长 15%。稳定币 mint 量在 L2 上增加 22%，说明支付和 DeFi 活动在回暖。
📈 链上盈利地址数：当前 $ETH 持仓盈利地址占比仅 38%（因为很多持有者成本 >2,000 美元），远低于 BTC 的 85%。这意味着 ETH 持有者整体浮亏，抛售意愿较低，一旦价格反弹至 2,000，将面临大量解套盘。
📉 短期压力：1,900 附近有约 4.2 万枚 $ETH 的卖方挂单，1,950 有 6.8 万枚，形成层层阻力。
🔹 支撑：1,840 附近有 3.1 万枚买方挂单，1,800 有 5.6 万枚，买盘支撑较厚。
🧠 结论：网络活动虽冷，但 L2 增长提供结构性利好。低 Gas 是双刃剑，但若价格能在 1,850 企稳，则可能吸引回归主网的套利交易，推动 Gas 回升。#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 #财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴 Want to buy but don't dare; don't buy but afraid to miss out
I'm all too familiar with this state
Seeing the AI sector with news every day makes me feel a bit restless
But I'm afraid chasing in will mean taking over, so I keep hesitating until I miss out
Later, I figured it out: the essence of entanglement is not understanding logic
Then guess what
Today's news pieces are pieced together, and I think I've figured out a bit of the trick
Microsoft extended the depreciation period to 25 years and further lowered its capital expenditure guidance
Google is willing to take a 20% stake to cover the debt of AI data centers
One is braking, the other is pressing the accelerator, with completely opposite directions
What does this indicate?
The AI arms race continues, but the giants are starting to settle scores
Microsoft wants to smooth out profits, while Google wants to seize the computing power market
Whose money is more willing to burn, whose narrative is tougher
On the policy side, the CLARITY Act missed the recess window again, causing compliance to continue to drag on
So my judgment is that the AI path isn't finished, but it will become fragmented
Giants that follow cash flow are worth following; those who just tell stories should be cautious
I'd rather choose a leading stock I can understand than touch a monster stock I don't understand
Buy when the logic is sound, not when you're anxious
By the way, I also took a look at recent developments, which are in several directions:
#折旧年限延至25年, Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance was lowered
Microsoft extended the depreciation period to 25 years and lowered its capital expenditure guidance, which translates to increasing profits and cooling down AI spending costs. Short-term earnings figures may look good, but the market is buying growth expectations, which actually cools the narrative of AI computing power. I see it as a signal that giants are starting to settle accounts, and I should be cautious about high-valuation hash power stocks.
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning
Google is trading 20% equity for AI data center debt coverage, essentially insuring the computing power arms race with its balance sheet. The fact that giants are willing to make such bets shows that AI capital spending is still booming, and data centers are a battleground for battleground. This is a real positive for computing power narratives, and it also shows that this bubble won't burst anytime soon.
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
The CLARITY Act missed the recess window, pushing the legislative progress for crypto compliance back down. In the short term, expectations have been disappointed, and the market may be somewhat disappointed, but the framework of the bill remains, just at a slower pace. I don't treat it as a major bad news or big positive news; I just use it as a reason to keep observing, and to keep controlling my position.
$BTC $ETH #AI #政策I never chase highs or sell lows; I only buy what I understand
I've been saying this for many years
But the real difficulty isn't in not chasing highs
It's admitting that there are many things I don't understand
Like exchange rates, financial reports, and those overnight policy changes
And guess what
Today I listed out all the things I don't understand, and it actually made me feel more grounded
The US has entrusted Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to intervene in the yen, this is an exchange rate war
SPCX's first financial report is about to be released, with hundreds of billions of dollars unlocking behind it
Next week there are four earnings releases, with Circle closing the show
Each of these alone is enough to stir the market
I used to want to avoid such situations
Now I've learned to think differently: not understanding = uncertainty = opportunity brewing
Before the earnings reports land, the market will repeatedly test
The direction of yen intervention will determine the mood of global capital
So my judgment is, the best strategy when you don't understand is not to hold heavy positions
Keep your position until the earnings reports come out and the direction becomes clear
BTC at 63,459 is a position that can be offensive or defensive
But I'm not in a hurry; it's more comfortable to wait for the dust to settle before making a move than to rush
Back to the hot topics outside the main market, a few things today are interesting:
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
SPCX's first financial report plus hundreds of billions unlocking is a life-or-death test for itself. The earnings numbers determine the expectation gap, the unlocking pace determines selling pressure, and combined, volatility will definitely spike. I don't touch contracts on such targets; I watch the spot market with a small position and wait for the unlocking to land to see the real chip cost.
#财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴
Four earnings reports squeezed into the same day, with Circle closing the show, this is the most concentrated pricing window for crypto-related assets. Circle's performance directly reflects how profitable the stablecoin business is; exceeding expectations will be a catalyst for the sector. I plan to reduce leverage those days, position before earnings, and decide direction after the release, which is more stable than betting on a single direction.
#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
The US has entrusted Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley with yen intervention, adding a super player to the exchange rate market. The yen anchors global carry trades; when it moves, US bonds, US stocks, and crypto all need to be repriced. Ordinary traders find it hard to keep up with this level of capital; what I can do is not follow the crowd, control leverage, and wait for the volatility to pass.
$BTC $ETH #财报 #汇率Memes are becoming chips in casinos.
It should be a cultural meme, a resonance, a co-creation.
Now it has become prey for mobility—noise, harvest.
Understanding this alienation from three dimensions:
(1) Driving force: Resonance → Fluidity
Previously, I shared because "this is exactly me," but now I repost to find someone to take over.
(2) Time: Long tail evolution → Instant harvest
"Black coffin lifting" can be popular for months, but nowadays, memes go from explosive to zero in just a few hours.
(3) Identity: Creator → Market player & retail investors
There are no co-creators left, only storytellers and those who listen to the stories and enter the venue.
Memes are still spreading.
But what they spread was no longer culture, but the desire for sudden wealth.The First Collapse of the IBIT Myth: BlackRock Withdrew Over 100 Million in a Single Day—Who Is Undermining Ming Cash's Sense of Security?
$122 million. This was the single-day net outflow for BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF on July 31.
As the ultimate totem embraced by traditional capital across the crypto world, BlackRock's IBIT has been hailed by countless bulls over the past six months as an eternal buying Maginot line. Retail investors believe that no matter how turbulent the market is, Wall Street's "bright money" will keep buying hundreds of millions every day, helping everyone hold onto spot prices. People are used to looking at daily inflows of data and feeling smug, believing that as long as BlackRock keeps accumulating shares, the bull market's engine will never stall.
However, on the last trading day of July, this accumulation black hole, shrouded in countless aura of faith, used a record-breaking massive capital withdrawal to completely tear off the emperor's new robe of "only inflow, no out." Not only did the total outflow reach $265 million, but even the previously strongest BlackRock IBIT saw an unprecedented outflow of $122 million, setting the most eye-catching single-day redemption record since the fund's listing.
This tears away the illusion that spot ETFs serve as an unrestricted buying line.
In the face of panic waves of hard macro landings and recession trades, Wall Street's big money has no sentimentality.
This batch of "bright money" entering through compliance channels is essentially extremely sensitive and timid liquidity arbitrageurs. When U.S. employment data freezes and recession warnings sound loudly, institutional funds will not hesitate and at any cost to carry out indiscriminate risk-off liquidations to ensure balance sheet security. They are even willing to apply for redemption at the lowest point of the price drop, withdrawing cash from BlackRock's channels to hedge the market.
Retail investors think spot ETFs are the faucet injecting trillions in incremental energy into the market, but in reality, they can also become a merciless pump for big money draining liquidity during storms.
At the beginning of the year, I started investing in Bitcoin and had some calculations in mind. I figured with BlackRock as my strongest backing, I would steadily support the market every day. I would open a 2x leveraged long-term hold around $68,000, and it would be as safe as a rock. Until the night before last, when I saw a pop-up showing IBIT's $120 million redemption in a single day, I broke out in a cold sweat. I realized these Wall Street tycoons, in the face of recession fear, are running even more anxiously than retail investors. They would never take over the market during a crash. Without hesitation, I immediately closed all leveraged contracts before the US market opened, leaving only the lowest level of spot holdings to hold firmly.
The muscle memory forced out by Mingqian's massive retreat this time helped me successfully keep my qualification to avoid being liquidated and reshuffled out in early August.
The compliance channel is not a bulletproof vest, but a smoother escape route for large funds.
In the coming days, keep an eye on the continuous changes in BlackRock's IBIT redemption limits and its ability to absorb funds on the key $60,000 chip base. Before large funds stop flowing out, I suggest closing all long positions in derivatives and firmly avoiding head-on collisions with Wall Street's escape routes.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard U.S. Digital Asset Clarity Act (CLARITY Act)
1. Latest Developments
The Senate will officially begin its summer recess on August 7, with the recess lasting until mid-September, which is the final window for the bill's vote in August this year. Senate Majority Leader John Thune publicly stated at the end of July that the goal of completing a full vote before the August recess is basically unachievable; the full House review process may only begin before the recess, with the formal vote postponed to September.
The bill is stuck at the core of the contradiction
• Bipartisan Obsession Over Lawmakers' Ethics Regulation: Democrats demand strict restrictions on crypto asset trading by public officials, but Republicans and industry parties clash with this clause, pushing negotiations to a deadlock;
• The Senate Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee bills have not yet been fully merged, and there are still detailed differences between the CFTC and SEC regarding regulatory responsibilities;
• The Senate agenda is crowded with budgets, diplomatic sanctions, and personnel nominations, with no dedicated voting time reserved for bills.
Parliamentarian updates
Leading MP Lummis continues to pressure his colleagues but admits that the legislative window is rare in ten years. If it is shelved in August, the bill will likely be voided and the new parliament will restart the legislative process in 2027. The House of Representatives had already passed the bill by a large margin in July 2025, with the only deadlock remaining in the Senate.
2. Now, let's predict the probability of passing
• Probability of legislation officially implemented before the August recess: ≈15%
• Bill 2026 final approval probability: 30%~35% (a sharp drop from 80% at the beginning of the year)
2. Institutional research report judgment
• Galaxy Digital: Probability of passing the August window period ≤20%;
• Jefferies Investment Bank: The probability of voting in August was less than 25%, most likely only starting debates without actual voting;
3. Probability Analysis of Real-World Politics (Hard Threshold)
The Senate vote requires 60 votes to break the lengthy debate, and the Republicans hold only 53 seats. At least 7 Democratic members need to defect. Currently, the Democrats clearly hold a reserved stance, and combined with limited time, the actual probability of implementation is only 10%~20%. The vast majority of institutions agree that the bill will not be signed and implemented by August. $SNDK US stocks rebounded across the board before the market opened, with panic quickly recovering
Before the US stock market opened, storage stocks such as Micron Technology, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all turned positive, having generally plunged 3%-4% earlier; Seagate rose 4.6%, and Western Digital gained 2.2%.
The previous sharp decline in the sector stemmed from market concerns about the storage cycle peaking and SK Hynix's performance falling short of expectations, reflecting a short-term emotional crush.
Core support remains unshaken: AI computing power continues to drive the supply-demand gap for HBM high-end memory, long-term orders from manufacturers lock in downstream demand, fundamentals remain resilient, and negative factors have been fully priced in.
Short-term sector volatility persists. Going forward, focus will be on tracking the pace of storage contract price increases in Q3 and the implementation of AI capital expenditures. The recovery momentum from overseas giants is also expected to be transmitted to the A-share storage industry chain. #Hyperliquid海力士永续插针, the platform promised to compensate for liquidation losses$282 million dropped to zero overnight: Trezor didn't break down, but what broke was people's "official filters"
On the evening of January 10, 2026, an OG was tricked into writing a memory phrase by a fake customer service pretending to be "supported by Trezor Value Wallet," directly wiping out 1,459 BTC + 2.05 million LTC (about $282 million), with the stolen funds flowing to THORChain across chains and washed into XMR/ETH.
Pay attention to three counterintuitive points:
1️⃣ It's not hackers breaking into cold wallets; it's the victims who read the seed phrase to "customer service" themselves. Trezor's system didn't leak, Ledger was fine, but the reason was "the sender looks official + urgent tone + claims it's security verification."
2️⃣ Hardware wallets ≠ immunity token. No matter how secure the chip is, as soon as a mnemonic phrase is online, enters a fake website, or sends it to 'customer service,' a cold wallet instantly becomes a hot wallet. Many people actually feel even looser after buying Trezor, with the screen popping up something like a 'close your eyes to check'—that's the real loophole.
3️⃣ The biggest Web3 scam isn't a contract loophole, but the official team coming to you proactively. Genuine customer service is always the one you contact them; they will never send you private messages, never ask for mnemonic phrases, and never ask you to redirect to "vault.trezor.guide."
My view is straightforward:
No matter how many times you earn in a bull market, it's useless—one social worker + one slip = lost everything.
Large funds must be backed by yourself: hardware wallets only do signatures, mnemonic phrases are offline, large amounts use multiple signatures/split positions, exchanges only keep ammunition but not principal. Treating "customer service" as a scammer pre-screening is ten times more important than studying candlesticks.
Don't laugh at victims being "foolish"—if you receive an urgent email with an order number or official website domain, and late-night asset "abnormal" pop-ups, you might not be able to withstand it.
In the crypto world, obsessives live longer, while smart people die quickly.特朗普taco，链上价格迅速给出反应
原油下跌，半导体上涨
这里面的传导链条大概是这样的:
如果战争升级，或者特朗普突然放狠话（比如停火结束了、要再打、要封锁），市场第一反应就是油可能要断供了（实际情况会更复杂），原油价格立刻往上窜。
油价一涨，大家就开始担心通胀又要抬头。通胀预期一上来，买美债的人就要求更高利息补偿，美债收益率（特别是10年、30年那种长债）跟着往上走。
美债收益率一高，市场就开始赌美联储可能要加息，或者至少降息遥遥无期。加息预期一升温，股市就难受，因为钱变贵了，股票估值要往下压。
这时候特朗普taco了。
市场立刻松一口气，油价回落，通胀担忧缓解，美债收益率往下走，加息预期也跟着降温，股市又反弹。
完整的链条是：
伊朗紧张 → 油价涨 → 通胀预期升 → 美债收益率升 → 加息预期升 → 股市承压
特朗普TACO → 油价回落 → 通胀担忧降 → 收益率回落 → 加息预期降温 → 股市反弹
对半导体而言：
半导体本身跟油价关系不大，但受利率影响特别重。收益率一上去，估值高的就要被杀估值，油价被拖累，资本开支可能放缓，对设备商和存储也不利。反过来，一旦TACO落地、油价和收益率一起回落，半导体经常是反弹最猛的那一拨，因为弹性大。
对韩国而言：
韩国是最吃亏的。
第一，它是能源进口国，油价涨直接增加成本。
第二，三星、SK海力士这种芯片巨头，股价高度跟着全球风险偏好和美债收益率走。收益率高、美元强，资金就容易从韩国流出。
第三，韩国股市芯片权重太高，美股半导体一抖，KOSPI就跟着大起大落。
所以伊朗一紧张，韩国市场往往先挨打；特朗普一TACO，韩国又容易弹性反弹。[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, just a few days after the ceasefire, are the US and Iran about to clash again?
Pharaoh directly says, "Fighting and negotiating" is the fixed script for this month. Embassies have already started evacuating personnel. Is this time a real move or just another round of maximum pressure?
Let's first see what has happened.
The US State Department has issued evacuation warnings to American citizens in multiple Middle Eastern countries, advising them to "consider leaving" or "be prepared for rapid evacuation." The US and Israel are reported to be planning the "most intense bombing to date" on Iranian energy facilities, targeting power plants, refineries, and even discussing cutting off Tehran's electricity supply. The US Central Command has already deployed heavy transport helicopters to the Middle East in preparation for a possible large-scale operation.
But Trump has not yet given the final order. Iran has already pushed back hard; the foreign minister warned the US military not to take risks, and senior officials revealed that a full counterattack plan is ready, with targets including key Israeli infrastructure and US energy facilities in the Middle East.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
The transmission chain is clear: Strait situation → oil prices → inflation → interest rate hike expectations → risk assets. If a real conflict breaks out, oil prices will surge, inflation will rise, the Fed's rate hike expectations will heat up again, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, will be the first to be drained.
But Pharaoh must remind you, "talking tough" and "taking action" are two different things. Trump's "maximum pressure" script has been played too many times; the market is forming a "TACO effect" — the tougher he talks, the more the market believes he will ultimately back down. The market is now hovering around 62000, jumping up and down with every news stimulus.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $BEAT #美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警