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Tonight's full forecast for the US tech stock market
1. Review of the current core pre-market situation
In my view, the market is currently completely dominated by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with capital in full wait-and-see mode. The market shows an extreme divergence pattern: the Dow leans toward safe-haven dividend assets strengthening, while the Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors continue to be under pressure and pull back, with memory chips being the core sector of this round of sharp declines.
1. Closing data from yesterday: Nasdaq slightly down 0.22%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.49%; Micron fell 8.85% in one day, SanDisk crashed 14.25%, SK Hynix ADR dropped nearly 9%, and since July SanDisk's stock price has nearly halved.
2. Root cause: SK Hynix just released Q2 earnings with profits and revenue soaring year-on-year but overall falling short of the market's very high expectations. Coupled with management's statement on expanding production in the second half, capital worries about gradually easing memory supply directly suppress the entire sector's valuation; additionally, Middle East geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices, increasing inflation uncertainty. The market fears the Fed will release a hawkish signal, leading to preemptive selling of high-volatility tech growth stocks.
3. Crypto market linkage: BTC has been under continuous pressure recently, hovering between 63,000 and 64,400 USD, highly correlated with Nasdaq tech stocks. Under expectations of tightening liquidity, crypto assets weaken simultaneously, which in turn drags down risk appetite for US tech stocks.
** 2. Two major scenario forecasts (Optimistic / Pessimistic, with trigger conditions marked)
✅ Optimistic scenario (70% probability, market baseline pricing expectation)
Trigger condition: The Federal Reserve announces maintaining the current interest rate unchanged, with neutral to dovish tone in the statement, clearly signaling a rate cut window in September, no mention of restarting hikes within the year, and acknowledging the ongoing decline in US inflation.
1. Short term (tonight intraday): US Treasury yields plunge, the US dollar index weakens, Nasdaq rebounds across the board. Leading tech giants diverge: stable leaders like Microsoft, Apple, Google turn positive first; memory sector sees oversold recovery, Micron rebounds 4%-7%, SanDisk's decline narrows to within 2%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers half of its losses.
2. Medium term (1-2 months): The upward logic of the memory cycle is re-recognized by capital. Samsung and Hynix expand HBM capacity in the second half, supported by AI server demand sustaining prices. Micron, relying on full HBM4 orders, starts a volatile upward trend.
3. Long term (over half a year): The Fed rate cut cycle begins, global liquidity eases, AI computing hardware demand continues to materialize, and the memory sector returns to a major uptrend.
4. Crypto linkage: BTC stabilizes above 65,000 USD, ETH rebounds synchronously, boosting both crypto assets and US tech stocks.
❌ Pessimistic scenario (30% probability)
Trigger condition: The Fed releases a strong hawkish signal, implying keeping room for rate hikes within the year, delaying the September rate cut plan, worried that oil price rebounds will push inflation higher again.
1. Short term (tonight intraday): Nasdaq plunges deeply, semiconductor sector hit hard again; Micron continues to fall 5%-9%, SanDisk further drops over 6%, early profit-taking intensifies, the entire AI hardware sector collectively suffers valuation cuts.
2. Medium term (1-2 months): High interest rate environment suppresses corporate capital expenditure, cloud providers slow AI expansion pace, memory chip price hike cycle is interrupted temporarily, Micron and SanDisk maintain a volatile downward trend. Compared to Korean stocks Samsung and SK Hynix, US memory companies have greater valuation correction space; Korean firms have stronger resilience relying on local supply chain protection (Securities Times).
3. Long term (over half a year): If inflation remains persistently high and rate cuts are continuously delayed, tech growth stocks will undergo a prolonged valuation digestion, and the memory sector will only reverse when supply-demand tightens.
4. Crypto linkage: BTC breaks below the key support at 62,500 USD, crypto market enters a new round of pullback, and risk assets weaken across the board amid liquidity contraction.
3. Core bullish & risk factors
Bullish factors
1. Rigid AI computing demand: Micron and Hynix's high-end HBM memory orders are already booked through 2027, with strong long-term earnings certainty. The sharp drop is due to emotional selling, not fundamental deterioration.
2. Global memory giants actively control production: Samsung and SK Hynix will not blindly increase volume significantly; DRAM and NAND spot prices still maintain an upward channel.
3. June US CPI data declined, marginal inflation pressure eased, providing the Fed with sufficient confidence to pause tightening monetary policy.
Risk factors
1. The market previously saw excessive gains in the memory sector, with strong profit-taking demand; any negative news could trigger a stampede sell-off.
2. ChangXin Memory's continuous breakthroughs in domestic memory change the global memory supply pattern in the long term, suppressing overseas memory companies' premium space.
3. Repeated Middle East geopolitical conflicts disturb oil prices, which could disrupt the Fed's rate cut rhythm and amplify market volatility.
4. Final personal operational judgment
I predict a high probability of an optimistic recovery tonight. Maintaining the current rate is the unanimous expectation of capital. After the decision, negative factors will be exhausted, and oversold memory chips will see a short-term rebound; however, the rebound is not a reversal. The medium term will still be affected by rate volatility and oscillate repeatedly. Short-term trading for rebounds is suitable, but heavy long-term bottom fishing is not recommended.
#美联储即将公布利率决议 ##财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 And just like that, it's off. Days after crude fell on a ceasefire, Trump has declared the US-Iran deal "over," a second round of strikes is underway, and the Strait of Hormuz is back in play. I'll keep this brief, because the honest takeaway is about behavior, not prediction.
This is the third or fourth full reversal in this conflict, and a live lesson in why trading geopolitical headlines is a losing game. The market that sold the oil premium two days ago now has to buy it back. My approach hasn't changed: treat this as a volatility input, not a directional call, size for whipsaw, and let the durable trends (rates, adoption) do the heavy lifting. Crypto's oddly calm today, which tells you it's learned to distrust the on-again-off-again. Watching the strait, expecting noise.
NFA.
#USIranCeasefireBreaks #OKXOrbitThe South Korean stock market closed down 6% today, narrowing its intraday drop of over 8%.
SK Hynix fell 9.4%, and Samsung dropped 4.8%. What is most noteworthy is not the decline, but SK Hynix's quarterly operating profit growth of nearly sixfold, yet it was still sold off after falling short of market expectations.
This shows that the market is not trading about "whether performance has grown," but whether growth can exceed already high expectations.
On the positive side, profits are still growing rapidly, and there is also buying at the end of the session. Cautiously speaking, previous valuations were overdrawn and index weights concentrated, and volatility may continue to spread to US semiconductor stocks and BTC.
My approach is not to treat the sharp drop as a bottom-fishing signal, nor to rush to announce the end of the AI cycle. First, let's see if US chip stocks can stabilize their decline, then see if the Korean market will see increased volume support in the next trading day. $XAU
🪙 $XAU -1.20% trading at $4024, RSI-12 at 40 signaling bearish momentum expansion. MACD deep negative, KDJ sharply crossing down. SAR support already broken — downside accelerating.
24h high $4101 rejected strongly — trend shifting.
Shorting $XAU at $4024, target $4014; next support sits near $4004. Aggressive downside bias.
Market weakness intensifies. Only selective hedge tokens showing resilience while altcoins face heavy selling pressure.
Clear risk-off sentiment dominating.KLA $KLAC latest earnings report, good news: they have already started signing capacity agreements for 2029. Bad news: it's another duration income.
FY2026 Q4 revenue was $3.658 billion, up 15% year-over-year, Non-GAAP gross margin remained at 62.4%, net profit was $1.39 billion.
Service revenue in Q4 was $820 million, up 17% YoY, accounting for 22%, of which 80% are contracts, a rare annuity stream in the equipment industry.
Management's long-term service revenue growth target is 13%–15%.
————
In the past 12 months, the company generated $3.77 billion in free cash flow, committed to returning over 90% to shareholders, and still has $9.7 billion in buyback authorization.
The average maturity of long-term debt is about 18.1 years, with an average interest rate of 4.67%, so there is no need to worry about refinancing costs suddenly rising for a long time.
The cost of capital is locked in; next, the focus is on the numerator side.
Management emphasizes that process control involves many varieties, with small volumes per project. Different fabs, different processes, and different defects all require separate debugging and testing solutions.
Besides algorithm accumulation, KLA has over 1,600 application engineers stationed long-term at customer sites to help adjust equipment and analyze data.
This competitiveness relies on years of experience, software databases, and a large engineering team. Even if newcomers build hardware, it is difficult to quickly match the full set of service capabilities.
In contrast, lithography equipment is closer to large-scale shipments around the same EUV platform, with a higher degree of product standardization.
When KLA says "scale is about 6 times closer to competitors," it mainly refers to core markets like wafer inspection and mask inspection.
Although $AMAT and $LRCX often emphasize expanding their process control business, they are still far from KLA in product coverage, installed base, data accumulation, and customer support capabilities.
Not yet enough to shake KLA's market position.
——————
More notably, the CFO said on the call:
"we are sizing the company to be able to serve the more bullish scenarios."
We are configuring capacity according to the most aggressive scenarios.
Management's discussion of the 2027 WFE benchmark has already reached $190 billion, and they are preparing for an even larger industry scale.
Some key components with delivery cycles as long as 18–24 months are already negotiating capacity agreements for 2029.
Semiconductor equipment management has always been conservative. Before the peaks in 2018 and 2022 cycles, they both stepped on the brakes early.
Now openly discussing "bullish scenarios" indicates that customer planning, order visibility, and supply chain signals are strong enough.
————
Of course, this is also a duration commitment.
Among the big four semiconductor equipment companies, $KLAC has the longest duration.
RPO reached $12.5 billion, covering about 3.4 quarters of revenue. The 2027 equipment boom and 2029 capacity agreements place more value in the long term.
KLA's business quality is increasingly close to a software company, so its valuation is more sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Long-duration assets are sensitive to interest rates. KLA's long-term debt weighted maturity is 18.1 years, interest rate 4.67%, locked in. Refinancing risk is close to zero; the rest is all about the numerator story.
It's just that with duration rates currently high, $KLAC is having a tough time.$SNDK US stocks rebounded across the board before the market opened, with panic quickly recovering
Before the US market opened on July 29, storage stocks such as Micron Technology, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all turned positive, though they had generally plunged 3%-4% earlier; Seagate rose 4.6%, and Western Digital rose 2.2%.
The previous sharp decline in the sector stemmed from market concerns about the storage cycle peaking and SK Hynix's performance falling short of expectations, reflecting a short-term emotional crush.
Core support remains unshaken: AI computing power continues to drive the supply-demand gap for HBM high-end memory, long-term orders from manufacturers lock in downstream demand, fundamentals remain resilient, and negative factors have been fully priced in.
Short-term sector volatility persists. Going forward, focus will be on tracking the pace of storage contract price increases and AI capital expenditure in Q3. The recovery trend by overseas giants is also expected to be transmitted to the A-share storage industry chain. #Hyperliquid海力士永续插针, platforms promise to compensate for liquidation losses This week officially marks the start of the financial market super trading week. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and key inflation data have been released one after another. Coupled with sudden reversals in geopolitical tensions and the spread of risk sentiment in the global semiconductor sector, major asset classes are facing intense tests. The overall market has entered a cautious wait-and-see phase, and in the short term, it is advisable to avoid one-sided heavy positions.
From a macro liquidity perspective, in the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its July FOMC rate decision, followed by a press conference by the chairman. The mainstream market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but the Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices, raising concerns about a possible inflation rebound. The market is repricing the Fed's policy tone, and Powell's hawkish-dovish tone will directly affect the mid-term pricing of the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and crypto assets. Following the decision, the US core PCE price index is about to be released, with market expectations reading at 3.30%. If inflation data exceeds expectations, it could reverse current expectations of easing. Before major events unfolded, global capital generally remained cautious, and volatility across various assets continued to shrink.
The precious metals market showed clear signal divergence. Currently, silver long positions account for as much as 97%, with long crowding reaching an extreme level. Historically, an extremely crowded position structure often signals a negative warning, warning signs that can lead to rapid pullbacks caused by concentrated long positions. According to the trading data, gold is quoted at $4,034, down slightly 0.28% intraday; Silver was quoted at $57.76, up 0.94% intraday. The gold-silver ratio continued to fluctuate, and under the dual competition of geopolitical and monetary policy, precious metals experienced increased volatility.
The geopolitical situation has taken a dramatic turn, completely overturning the trading narrative of a calming in the morning market. Tensions in the Middle East have flared up again, with Iran launching missile strikes on US military bases in the region, ending the brief ceasefire window; The US-Saudi coalition launched joint airstrikes targeting the headquarters of armed groups in northern Iraq, causing casualties. Meanwhile, industrial facilities in Russia's Ryazan region were attacked by drones, triggering fires, with simultaneous conflicts escalating in multiple locations.
Stimulated by geopolitical turmoil, international crude oil ended a three-day losing streak and rebounded strongly, with WTI crude rebounding to $82.4, a single-day gain of nearly 2%. Here, a common misconception needs to be clarified: not all geopolitical conflicts will indiscriminately benefit risk assets. This round of market trends has followed a unique transmission chain: rising crude oil prices → rising inflation expectations→ betting on the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, ultimately suppressing gold and cryptocurrencies. The outdated logic of "buying risk assets for war avoidance" cannot be simply applied.
Risk aversion has spread from US stocks to Asian capital markets, with the semiconductor sector becoming a major hotspot for capital sell-offs. South Korea's KOSPI index plunged 6%, and market panic spread rapidly. South Korea's finance authorities have begun discussing supporting policies to stabilize the market and plan to tighten regulatory rules for single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs, limiting leveraged funds from amplifying market volatility. Risk sentiment simultaneously spread to China's Taiwan Weighted Index, with the decline widening to 3%; Additionally, the continuous shutdown of Sony's Kumamoto semiconductor plant due to the earthquake has disrupted supply expectations in the supply chain, further intensifying pessimistic outlooks in the semiconductor sector.
Turning to the crypto market, Bitcoin and Ethereum maintained range-bound fluctuations, with multi-cycle technical signals diverging. Bitcoin is currently priced at $63,866, up 1.12% in 24 hours. The daily closing price was $63,895, firmly above the MA50 moving average at 63,290, but continued to face pressure below the MA20, MA100, and MA200 moving averages; MACD bearish momentum continues to converge, RSI value is 48.5, in a neutral range, and the overall large oscillation range is locked at $61,660–$66,930. The 4-hour period has formed a positive signal, with the MACD fast line forming a golden cross, and the 4-hour MA200 moving average at 63116 continues to provide bottom support; The one-hour Bollinger Band bandwidth has been compressed to 1.61%, with volatility shrinking severely. This has always been a precursor to a major market turnaround. Although there is rebound momentum in the short term, resistance at 64,180 is clearly suppressed above.
Ethereum is priced at $1906, up 1.72% in 24 hours, showing a significantly stronger market structure than Bitcoin. On the daily chart, a bullish alignment has formed, with the price holding above several key moving averages of MA20 and MA50; Multiple moving averages on the 4-hour period have all formed support, with the RSI indicator at 58.7 in a relatively strong range. However, multiple attempts to break through the 1982 level above have failed, creating stubborn resistance. The core support below is at $1850. If this support is breached, the strength and weakness pattern will quickly reverse.
The derivatives market has not seen extreme long-short accumulation. The 8-hour funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains slightly positive in the 0.0034%~0.01% range, while Ethereum's funding rate is 0.0019%~0.0029%; Meanwhile, SOL's funding rate has turned negative, and bearish pressure is beginning to accumulate. Bitcoin's spot premium fell to -0.14%, at a discount of $91.6, reflecting a slight advantage in spot market selling forces. On the market sentiment front, the crypto fear and greed index fell back to 29, officially entering the fear zone, and overall investor risk appetite is cool.
Focus on Bitcoin's core market: The current price has been fluctuating within a wide range for several days, with a clear dual support zone. The MA50 moving average at 63,290 combined with the 4-hour MA200 at 63,116 forms a strong defensive zone. The first short-term resistance is at the daily Bollinger middle band at 64,457, with the ultimate range upper resistance at 66,930. The one-hour Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, the market reversal window is approaching, and the subsequent market direction is very likely to be directly triggered by the results of the July 29 Federal Reserve FOMC meeting.
Based on all current information, here are trading references: cryptocurrencies are temporarily fluctuating within a range while waiting for major news. Before the outcome of the policy meeting, heavy positions on long or short positions are not recommended; At the product level, Ethereum's market strength continues to outperform Bitcoin, so focus should be paid to opportunities for strong and weak rotation.
Looking at global stock markets, the storage chip sector has been selling for its fourth trading day, with risks continuing to spread. The structural divergence in the US stock market is very pronounced: Western Digital (SanDisk) plunged 14.9%, SK Hynix dropped 12%, Micron Technology fell 8.5%, and the DRAM index plunged 8.8%; However, the performance of major tech leaders was fragmented: Google rose 2.3%, Meta closed slightly higher, and Tesla prices remained flat. Risk-averse selling was concentrated in the storage industry chain, and did not escalate into a comprehensive crash in the US stock market.
Combined with the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, the super week is experiencing multiple risk resonances,📊 Everyone is talking about the 400% growth in tokenized stocks. Few understand what that number actually represents.
Tokenized equities have one headline—but multiple ways to measure it.
Different sources show different figures:
• Total market size
• Actual on-chain circulating value
• Individual asset valuations
The difference isn't necessarily a mistake. It's about methodology.
The bigger story isn't just growth. It's the change in participants.
A year ago, tokenized assets were mostly crypto-native names. Now the flow is expanding into:
🔹 Nvidia
🔹 Quantum companies like IonQ and Rigetti
🔹 Broad market ETFs
🔹 Major technology stocks
That shift shows tokenization is moving from a crypto experiment toward a broader financial infrastructure trend.
And the real opportunity may not be the stocks themselves—it may be the rails behind them:
• Settlement infrastructure
• Exchanges building markets
• Oracles providing pricing data
• Platforms powering on-chain access
The future isn't just about putting stocks on-chain.
It's about building the financial system that allows them to trade, settle, and interact on-chain.
The headline attracts attention. The infrastructure creates the value.
#FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss SanDisk plummeted from its all-time high of $2,354 on June 22, closing at $1,096 on July 29, then dropping another 5% in after-hours to $1,040. 958 is just one step away, having dropped more than 59% from its historical high. The trigger was Changxin Technology's surge of 466% on its first day of listing on the STAR Market on July 27, with a market value of 3.28 trillion yuan and topping the A-share market. The market is concerned that after Chinese manufacturers seize DRAM, they will further expand into NAND, triggering panic revaluation of global memory stocks. However, Changxin mainly focuses on DRAM, while SanDisk is a pure NAND flash company, and the two have no direct product competition. SanDisk was dragged into the quagmire by a DRAM sell-off, but its fundamentals didn't collapse.
The core reason for going long
First, $42 billion order backlog. SanDisk's remaining performance obligations and contract backlog reached $41.6 billion to $42 billion. By 2026, all enterprise AI storage capacity has been sold out through long-term contracts. This is not an expectation, but already locked in cash flow.
Second, performance is still accelerating. Q3 revenue was $5.95 billion, a surge of 97% quarter-on-quarter and a 251% year-on-year increase. Q4 guidance revenue is $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, non-GAAP earnings per share of $30 to $33, and gross margin approaching 80%. Wall Street consensus expects revenue of $8.42 billion and EPS of $34.67.
Third, institutions collectively remain bullish. On July 5, Goldman Sachs raised its target price from $1200 to $2200 and maintained a buy rating. Bernstein raised it to $3,000, and Bank of America raised it to $2,500. Analyst consensus is "strong buy," with 14 buys and 3 holds, and an average target price of $2052.
Fourth, bears are afraid to heavily short. Short interest accounts for only 4.93% of the public's outstanding shares, and professional short sellers face $42 billion in orders, while Backlog is hesitant to make heavy bets. Smart money and retail investor sentiment have shown a significant divergence.
Trading strategy
958 directly entered, with a total position of 10% and leverage not exceeding 3x. Stop loss is set below 850, about 11% from entry. Take profit is divided into four batches: 1100 to 1150, 25% at 1250, 25% at 1250 to 1300, 25% at 1450 to 1500, and above 1650, the remaining 25%. Moving stop is executed; for every 100-point price increase, the stop-loss is raised by 50 points. At 1100, stop loss is moved from 850 up to 900, at 1250 from 900 up to 950, and at 1450 from 950 up to 1000.
Risk warning
The August 5th financial report is the biggest uncertainty. If revenue falls below 8.42 billion, it may decline further. Cyclical risks remain in the storage industry, with about 60% of capacity still exposed to spot prices. 958 is for betting on a rebound, not a reversal. Position control is key, and stop-loss execution is key.
##交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard $BTC stayed flat at 64400 all day, tonight the Fed will decide life or death!
During the day it hovered around 64400, fluctuating less than 100 points up or down, big money is all waiting for the Fed's move at 2 AM.
First, the market: the lowest during the day was 64434, the highest 64485, basically no movement. The candlestick almost formed a straight line, a typical calm before the storm. The market is holding its breath waiting for the result, no one dares to make the first move. Trading volume shrank sharply, indicating both bulls and bears are watching.
The biggest variable tonight is just one: the Fed's interest rate decision, results at 2 AM. CME data now shows about a 40% chance of a 25 basis point hike, about 60% chance of no change. This level of divergence has only appeared twice since 2015. Back when Powell was in charge, market expectations would have been 99% aligned by now, but now with Waller scrapping forward guidance, everyone is guessing. Hedge fund Citadel even publicly warned the market to prepare for a rate hike.
Impact on BTC: no change + dovish = bullish rebound; unexpected hike = bearish. But one detail to note, K33's research head said BTC's trend has started to diverge from the Nasdaq, with BTC up about 6% in July, S&P 500 flat, and semiconductor sector down nearly 20%. So if the Fed pulls any surprises, BTC's impact might be more limited than expected.
Trading strategy: resistance above at 64500-64800, if it can't break through, bears dominate; support below at 63300-62600, breaking that could trigger panic selling. Don't bet before the direction is clear, wait for the Fed's decision. I personally won't open any positions tonight, survival is more important than anything. $ETH $SOL
#美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 华盛顿的立法博弈正在给加密行业泼冷水。CLARITY法案是特朗普政府力推的加密货币监管里程碑，旨在为数字资产提供明确法律框架。但最新消息显示，民主党谈判代表提出了一项关键前提：要求法案加入道德条款，严格限制包括总统和副总统在内的高级官员从数字资产项目中获利。这一条件直接戳中了特朗普家族商业帝国的敏感部位——他旗下的社交平台和NFT项目已为其带来超过1.5亿美元的潜在收益。 在我看来，这是加密行业在2024年大选时埋下的隐患。当时不少币圈大佬向特朗普捐款，认为他能扫清监管障碍，却忽略了他本人的商业角色可能成为政策推进的绊脚石。如今CLARITY法案的僵局已导致比特币价格在过去24小时内回调3.2%，跌至68500美元附近。如果民主党的伦理条件被采纳，特朗普个人将被迫在商业利益与立法成就之间二选一——这几乎注定会让法案难度翻倍。 短期看，$BTC 和 $ETH 将承受额外波动压力。CLARITY法案原本被市场预期在三个月内通过，如今引入伦理条款后至少延迟一个立法周期。更危险的是，这种政治拉锯可能让其他监管机构趁机收紧执法行动。别忘了，去年美国SEC对交易所的诉讼正是利用了法律模糊地带。 #An 84% win rate on predicting ups and downs is considered too slow to make money, so a certain account has heavily invested one million USD to predict that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates at midnight.
On the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money investor put $535.7k on "Will the Fed rate remain unchanged this month?" as "Yes," and $534.4k on "Will the Fed raise rates by 25 basis points this month?" as "No."
0x0feb1bf9 invested $536k. They have settled 19 trades with a total profit of $28.7k. This trade is 442 times the median size of their historical trades.
This account previously earned $33k with an 84% win rate by predicting Bitcoin price movements. For this Fed decision, the account expanded its investment to hundreds of times the median historical trade size, holding a total position of one million USD on the "no rate hike" side. If the Fed decides not to raise rates, the account will earn a profit of $369k.
The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on July 29 (02:00 Beijing Time on July 30). Most economists expect the federal funds target rate to remain at 3.50%-3.75%. The US June CPI year-over-year growth slowed from 4.2% to 3.5%, and core CPI year-over-year growth dropped to 2.6%. The June unemployment rate was 4.2%, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 57,000. Recent oil price fluctuations continue to affect inflation outlooks, and some policymakers may support a rate hike at this meeting.
The semiconductor market experienced a sharp decline before the Fed decision. On the 28th, Samsung Electronics fell 13.4%, SK Hynix dropped 14.7%, and the Korean KOSPI index fell 10.8%. After SK Hynix announced record quarterly profits, its stock price continued to fall 13% today. Fitch on the same day classified the AI market adjustment as a global credit risk and noted that major tech companies' AI capital expenditures are expected to reach $700B this year. US long-term Treasury yields and AI company financing costs remain high, and the current interest rate environment is testing the funding sources and future returns of data center investments.
Note: Based on the trader's past trading profile, this trader does not bet on whether the event actually happens but engages in profit-taking and stop-loss actions at certain points after opening positions.
Account:
0x0feb1bf966bc7f954c2da0293ae2fdc572c5db5d
Total investment: $1.27M 昨晚的美股有点儿过于极端，和之前科技大涨、其他股票暴跌不同的是，这次反过来了，其他股票大涨，科技股暴跌。 可口可乐二季度业绩仅仅略微超预期，股价却单日暴涨超5%，与之相对应的是存储板块全面下跌，闪迪更是暴跌11%。 但是，虽然看起来美股血雨腥风的样子，但是三大宽基这似乎的却看起来波澜不惊的样子。 数据来源：Wind 这种反差有它的内在逻辑，把时间拉到整个七月，会看到一条非常清晰的规律，当市场的宽度越来越窄的时候，波动就会愈发激烈，而当市场宽度打开，指数反而越稳。 市场的宽度越大，那么宽基越稳，这是由于宽基的特性决定的，标普的11个行业里，总有几个涨几个跌，彼此对冲之后指数的净波动就被大幅熨平了。 最经典的案例莫过于昨晚，科技板块在跌，但消费必需品、通信服务和可选消费板块同时在涨。 这种此消彼长贯穿了整个七月，可口可乐今年涨了将近20%，消费必需品板块全年领跑。 医疗保健板块的资金流入明显加速，金融板块也在走强，这些板块在标普500里的权重加起来，远超半导体一个行业，所以即便费半进了熊市，标普连回调都算不上。 这里面最值得讲的反面哪里就是韩国KOSPI指数，由于三星电子和SK海力士两家公🚨 US stocks, Nikkei, Korea, and crypto all moved lower together.
Blaming the move only on the Changxin IPO misses the bigger picture.
$BTC also pulled back from $66K toward $63K, showing this is not just a semiconductor sector issue.
The broader driver appears to be liquidity tightening—capital is moving away from risk assets across both equities and crypto.
With the Fed's first rate decision of H2 approaching, markets are already positioning ahead of the outcome. The uncertainty around rates is pushing investors to reduce exposure before the announcement.
The bigger focus is on the Fed's leadership and communication style. A data-driven approach could bring more volatility if the message differs from market expectations.
The next 48 hours could be crucial for risk assets.
#FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss The SEC has made a bold statement, saying that if Congress delays in implementing the crypto regulatory bill, it will introduce its own regulatory details. The market generally views this as a pressure tactic to pressure the Clarity Act to accelerate its implementation.
However, Senate Majority Leader Thune previously expressed a desire to complete the vote before the August recess, which is not closely related to the SEC's recent pressure efforts.
Currently, there are two core contradictions in the bill's blockage: first, the ethical clause restricting public officials' participation in crypto asset profits. Democrats demand stricter regulation, while Republicans want a swift release; Second, the ownership of law enforcement is the authority to determine whether regulatory authority will be exercised by the Department of Justice or state attorneys' generals. Bipartisan negotiations have been deadlocked, which is the key reason the bill has been stalled. #银行业联名施压. The CLARITY stablecoin clause may undergo further changes Written before the early morning interest rate meeting
At 2 a.m. Beijing time on July 30th is this month's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. This time, the interest rate forecast is the most conflicted I've felt since I started following macroeconomics in 2022. In the past, by this time, there was usually a clearer intention regarding interest rate adjustments. Even when there were occasional surprises, the Fed would leak information through Nick.
But this time, the market is clearly divided on whether there will be a rate hike, with the probability of a hike now close to 30%. From my personal perspective, not raising rates should be the main theme, partly because June's inflation data decreased. Although oil prices have risen recently, the duration has been short.
The Fed is unlikely to cut rates defensively when inflation is falling. Remember, in March and April when Powell was reappointed, inflation and oil prices were higher, and the war outlook was more severe. Many institutions expected WTI to reach $150 by year-end, yet the Fed did not raise rates then. That's the second point.
So if there is no rate hike, it should be relatively positive for the market. I even think the recent declines in US stocks yesterday and today were risk hedges against a "rate hike." So, since I'm so confident there won't be a hike, should I go long?
My choice is no. Even though I think there won't be a hike, I won't go long on stocks. If I were to go long, I would raise the double-currency bottom-buy price for BTC from $63,000 to $63,500 and $64,000. After all, holding Bitcoin spot is not risky for me.
I'm still not very familiar with stocks. Currently, I only trade oil and Hynix. No need to say much about oil; if there is a rate hike, shorting oil only benefits me. As for Hynix, I should have closed my position before the interest rate meeting.
Personally, I strongly advise against opening positions in such a high-volatility, high-uncertainty environment like an interest rate meeting. #美联储即将公布利率决议 $BTC It feels like a knockoff season...... But why does it feel like no one is buying? This is a question that keeps echoing in my mind while observing the current market trends. On the surface, the pattern looks good—Bitcoin is stable, Ethereum is showing relative strength, and many altcoins are rebounding from oversold conditions. But when you look closer, when you examine the market itself rather than just price movements, a different picture emerges. In my view, this doesn't seem like the start of a broad altcoin rally. It was like a ghost ship—a vessel that seemed to be moving but was actually drifting, steering without a captain or clear direction. The market is drifting, while liquidity quietly disappears beneath the surface. The buying support that should have been present in a real rebound is clearly absent. Most altcoins are looking for buyers, but buyers simply don't appear. Orders that typically provide support during pullbacks are sparse, allowing even mild selling pressure to push prices down. This is a sign of a market lacking confidence—traders are willing to buy on pullbacks, but only at much lower levels, forming a difficult downward bias. 📉 $WLD fell about 8%, indicating that recent buying interest has completely evaporated. 📉 $SHIB fell about 6%, continuing its signature slow downward trend over several months. And these are not even the weakest names on the market. Countless smaller altcoins have fallen by 20%, 30%, or even more, experiencing devastating declines for anyone buying at a high level. Even traditionally bear-resistant coins like $BCH and $ADA are struggling to hold key levels, indicating that weakness is widespread, no#美联储即将公布利率决议
Before staying up late to watch the market, let me share my real thoughts now
It's 2 AM on July 30 in Beijing, just a few hours until the Federal Reserve announces the result. Honestly, I will most likely be glued to the screen tonight, but I won’t be making any impulsive moves.
I glanced at the latest CME data (as of the evening of July 29): the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 71.2%, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike is 28.8%. Half a year ago, this hike probability wouldn’t have been taken seriously, but now it’s different. The market has been used to the narrative of "the last rate hike" for almost a year. If they do raise tonight, it would be one of the most face-slapping reversals by the Fed in decades. I’m not betting on whether they will hike or not, but I know whichever way it goes, volatility won’t be small.
The current data is really conflicted
I’ve been repeatedly looking at two sets of numbers lately, and the more I look, the more I feel the Fed folks won’t have an easy night either.
One set is soft: consumer confidence is dropping, and employment expectations are weakening. This supports a dovish stance, and the market hopes to hear something like "we are concerned about downside risks."
The other set is hard: oil prices have bounced back, the Middle East situation remains unsettled, and Brent crude is back above $86. June PCE is still above 2.5%, quite a bit away from the 2% target. Inflation just can’t be brought down to a level that reassures everyone.
Calling it cold on one hand and hot on the other, whatever the Fed says will upset someone. So the real importance tonight isn’t whether they hike those 25 basis points, but what wording Chair Powell uses. This new chair doesn’t like giving clear guidance, and the market’s comfortable days of "hearing one sentence to judge the direction for half a year" are gone.
What am I waiting for?
To be honest, my current position is somewhat neutral, with a fair amount in cash and the holdings leaning towards low duration and low leverage. Not because I’m bearish, but because I really can’t see clearly.
Some friends around me bottom-fished in the storage sector last week and have been hammered badly in the past few days. SanDisk and SK Hynix have seen a 40% pullback in just a few days from their highs — who wouldn’t be nervous? The memory of Alphabet’s capital expenditure hike being punished is still fresh. The market’s attitude towards AI hardware stocks has changed — from "I trust you no matter how much you spend" to "You spend this much, when will you make it back?"
Tonight, Microsoft and Meta’s earnings will also be released. What I’m really watching isn’t the big revenue or profit numbers, but the capital expenditure guidance. If the giants start tightening their spending, the valuation logic for the entire AI hardware chain will need to be recalculated. If they keep pouring money in aggressively, short-term sentiment might hold, but doubts about long-term returns will grow.
Some honest thoughts
I’m not the type to go all-in and gamble at this point. If I guess right, I make a short-term profit; if I guess wrong, I give back months of gains in one go. I’ve suffered that kind of loss before and don’t want to again.
I prefer to see tonight as an "elimination process" — the Fed rules out one option, the market rules out one possibility, and then we wait for clear signals before moving. I’ve believed in the AI industry trend for a long time and still do, but even the best trends have a hundred ways to shake you out first.
No matter the outcome tonight, volatility will definitely be high. My strategy is simple: watch, but don’t rush to act. Opportunities come from waiting, not grabbing. We’ll see the results at dawn and decide then. 存储芯片市场上演极具戏剧性的一夜。一边是HBM巨头SK海力士，利润相比去年同期暴涨数倍，却败给华尔街过高的期待，盘后股价先跳水后震荡拉扯；另一边硬盘龙头希捷科技财报全线大超预期，盘后一度狂飙超10%，给寒气逼人的存储板块送来一抹暖意。两份财报同台亮相，把当下AI硬件行业“高增长遇上高期待”的矛盾展现得淋漓尽致 。 北京时间7月29日清晨，SK海力士揭开二季度财报面纱。财报数据看，公司二季度营业利润达到60.54万亿韩元，对比去年同期9.2万亿韩元堪称脱胎换骨；营收79万亿韩元。但华尔街分析师胃口已经被AI周期养得极大，市场预期营业利润64.22万亿韩元、营收84万亿韩元，实际数据双双落空 。消息一出，SK海力士美股ADR盘后瞬间大跌超8%，短暂恐慌抛压过后，股价又顽强翻红，上演过山车行情。 为何利润暴增还挨市场“耳光”？背后逻辑颇为耐人寻味。SK海力士深度押注AI高端HBM内存，高端芯片业务占比显著高于同行。当普通DRAM、NAND闪存价格大幅上涨的时候，公司反而分得的红利有限，这就造成“明明赚得盆满钵满，依然达不到市场想象天花板”的尴尬局面。 当然财报并非全是坏消息，底牌亮点依旧分量Opening the contract decline rankings shows that $SOON plunged 21.40% in a single day, followed closely by ESP and $KORU with drops exceeding 15%. More than a dozen small and mid-sized coins all saw double-digit plunges. Even though some coins still maintained trading volumes in the hundreds of millions, they still couldn't stop the concentrated release of selling pressure. Many traders wonder: if there hasn't been extreme negative news in the market, why are so many niche coins collapsing simultaneously? Combining recent capital flows across the entire crypto market, the retreat of storage themes, and contract market rules, this article breaks down the reasons behind this round of collective sell-offs, the commonalities of each coin, and the underlying logic. 1. Market Event Background Corresponding to This Round of Bulk Drops 1. The storage main theme has completely ended, with sector aftershocks continuing to drag down similar coins. Previously, storage concept stocks like LAB and SNDK had experienced deep declines, completely invalidating the narrative of memory chip price hikes, with major players in the entire sector completing large-scale shipments. Second-tier altcoins that originally rally on hot market trends lose the main trend's traffic and lack independent positive support. Once funds tighten, they are the first to catch up and fall. KORU is a typical legacy storage-themed derivative coin, continuing its downward trend after the main line collapses. 2. Pre-market U.S. Liquidity Tightens, Main Players Concentrate on Clearing Small-Cap Contract Chips As U.S. stocks are about to open in the evening, funds begin to withdraw from high-risk small-cap coins and flow back into mainstream assets for safe haven. Small-cap altcoins have thin order depth, so you don't need large sell orders to crash sharply. The main force concentrates on selling their accumulated chips during this time window, triggering a chain of stop-loss orders for retail investorsStructure · L2 is losing blood, and consumer-level chains are sucking blood
The most noteworthy structural change today is not in price.
The TVL of the Ethereum L2 ecosystem has fallen to its lowest level since 2023.
This means capital interest in traditional scaling solutions is systematically waning, combined with governance changes within the Ethereum ecosystem and institutions increasingly shifting toward multi-chain strategies.
Control group: Robinhood chain's mainnet launched less than a month ago, with TVL reaching $325 million. On-chain transmitter trading volume once surpassed $PUMP. On one hand, the more "correct" technical path was being lost; on the other, consumer-level chains with built-in users and casinos were leeching off the market.
This isn't the first time: the 2021 public chain battle, the 2024 inscriptions, the 2025 meme—each time, "someone has come out" and "better to use."
When judging a new chain, don't judge by its TPS and architecture—look at how many existing users it has. $HOOD's 28 million brokerage clients are something no L2 technical solution can buy. At the same time, L2-related tokens need extra caution against this backdrop—the ebb of the narrative is harder to reverse than the price drop.
#HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in the week #摩根士丹利推出ETH和SOL的现货ETP #银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY's stablecoin may change again The wind has shifted. Lying beneath the camouflage net, what I saw through the scope was not the smoke of the battlefield, but the white steam from the data center's cooling tower and the network of firepower woven from guarantee clauses on the balance sheet. Nvidia has issued a $250 billion guarantee letter to cover OpenAI's 10GW supercomputing base in Ohio—this is not just an ammunition supply line, but a fuse welding the entire supply chain into its own safe. Google went even further, raising the default guarantee for third-party data center leases from 6.5 billion to 44 billion, just to free up non-Nvidia chip space for Anthropic and his team. They no longer attacked the hills themselves, but instead gave parachutes to the cannon fodder charging ahead—while they themselves sat in observation posts a thousand meters away, using financial levers as silencers.
I stared at the anemometer in the scope. The essence of this round of deployment by tech giants is a "cover shot": using financial credit to spread the initial recoil of AI infrastructure into the leasing market, completely decoupling construction costs from chip procurement. Nvidia doesn't sell chips to guarantee projects, which means supplying bullets and barrels separately—holding the core firepower while handing the hot barrel to the banking syndicate. Google is even more sophisticated; its $44 billion default ceiling is set right at the safety threshold of third-party claims, like the 0.3 secret slot reserved when a sniper adjusts its trajectory: you can afford to pay, but I'm up to the one who wins.
The XLLY label is now just a blurry spot in the crosshairs. The market is betting on the product of "leverage ratio × computing power leasing cycle"—but snipers' dictionary doesn't include high probability, only profit-loss ratios. That 250 billion guarantee chain hasn't yet been calibrated for wind speed and ground rotation bias, and Google's 44 billion hasn't yet experienced the real humidity of an AI bull market. Any target that has not been triggered is merely observational data.
Now, the bullet is still in the magazine. Once the hygrometer stabilizes and the trajectory curve passes through the clear sky, decide whether to place the crosshair on that heartbeat point.📊 Is $HYPE still undervalued?
Based on estimated 2027 earnings, Hyperliquid is currently trading around 15–18x P/E.
For comparison, traditional financial platforms like Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and CME trade at higher earnings multiples despite growing at a much slower pace.
And that valuation doesn't fully account for potential future expansion into:
🔹 Equities
🔹 Real-world assets (RWAs)
🔹 Prediction markets
🔹 Broader regulatory access
The market appears to be valuing Hyperliquid based on its current state, rather than its long-term potential.
If execution continues, $HYPE could remain one of the most interesting valuation opportunities in crypto.
#FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss 今日，SK海力士公布了第二季度财报。虽然营收与利润双双创下历史新高，但由于实际营收与营业利润却低于市场预期，该股股价在盘后交易中一度下跌超过9%，亚洲盘前跌幅更是一度扩大至超过11%。 实际上，市场的担忧情绪早已累计多日。海力士这份万众瞩目的财报发布之前，股价已因AI芯片板块的系统性恐慌遭遇重挫：Kospi指数周二单日暴跌逾10%并触发熔断，SK海力士股价当日跌幅超过10%。 但随着投资者逐步消化细节，跌幅迅速收窄。因为海力士明确表示，2026年资本开支将处于此前指引区间的上限附近，将继续加码HBM等AI相关投资，这一表态被市场解读为对“AI基础设施投资能否持续”的正面回应。 受此利好提振，海力士股价走势由盘后重挫转为盘中一度上涨超过2%，呈现上下反复的震荡格局，同为存储芯片股的三星电子当天早盘也上涨约4%。 但在同一交易日，日经225指数却延续前一日的恐慌抛售，软银集团跌超6%；隔夜美股费城半导体指数连续第二个交易日下挫4.5%，美光科技跌8.9%。 这足以说明，市场对SK海力士财报的反应，其意义已超出单一公司业绩本身，而是被当作检验“AI基础设施真实需求”的第一份硬数据。市场真正想Want to ask Gate: Are the facts as you describe?
The 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD paid by our side first flowed into third-party wallets, after which Gate Alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens. The platform refused to disclose the personnel and process for this listing, and the assets were then transferred from third-party wallets to Gate Alpha for airdrop.
All transfer hashes are traceable, and evidence is publicly available for verification.
After the project completed payment and successfully went live for trading, the platform unilaterally claimed that the communication and liaison personnel were external scammers.
The project ultimately successfully listed on Gate Exchange. This explanation alone cannot dispel all doubts; this matter has seriously damaged Gate's market credibility. We demand a transparent and complete official response.A signal is emerging in the flow of funds into U.S. tech stocks and crypto assets: crypto investors are starting to concentrate in the U.S. tech sector. Does this group behavior mean that risk appetite has already spilled over? Since June, some crypto insiders have been consistently bearish on U.S. stocks, citing that more and more crypto investors around them are shifting their funds into U.S. tech stocks. This phenomenon has been interpreted as a typical "group chasing high" signal. - Factual level: The original text cites an observable but not statistically significant sample—the group of crypto investors close to the author. Although this "acquaintance indicator" lacks comprehensiveness, it has some reference value in behavioral finance: when a specific group's funds start to flow into another market that has already risen sharply, it often means that group is chasing assets that lag behind their own cognitive cycle. - Market structure changes: If US tech stocks (especially the Nasdaq index) experience significant corrections, the crypto market will find it difficult to be completely immune. The logic is: when US stock market liquidity tightens, crypto assets, as high-beta assets, are often the first to be sold off to cover margin or liquidity needs in other markets. BTC's independence has not been stable during periods of macro liquidity contraction. - Conditions for trend failure: BTC's current altcoins are relatively weak, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains under pressure, indicating that funds have not formed quality support within crypto. If U.S. stocks experience a deep correction of more than 10%, BTC could follow suit and fall to the $40,000 range, with altcoins potentially experiencing even greater declines. This昨晚BTC跌破6.3w，虽然今天涨回来了，但已经有超过5.1亿美元的多单爆仓。 这次把大饼砸下来的，不是币圈自己的事。 7月29日，亚洲半导体股集体暴跌。恐慌像多米诺骨牌一样——从东京到纽约，从芯片到比特币。 美光跌超8%，英特尔跌近6%。道指虽然靠非科技股硬撑了500多点，但纳指被芯片板块拖进深水区。 原因出在哪？AI巨头们的账单太吓人了。 谷歌、微软、亚马逊、Meta四家科技巨头今年资本开支预计冲到7250亿美元以上，华尔街预测明年可能飙到9000亿。而谷歌刚公布的二季度财报炸了一个雷——5.9亿美元的负自由现金流，这是谷歌历史上第一次现金净流出。 虽然云计算因为AI需求暴增82%，但市场问了一个灵魂问题：砸这么多钱，什么时候能赚回来？ 资本市场不分家。当基金经理觉得AI烧钱可能是个无底洞，他们砍的不是某一个板块，而是"整体风险敞口"——所有波动大的资产一起降仓位。 比特币、以太坊这种高波动资产，永远第一个被抛售。 大盘数据很残酷：Bitget数据显示24小时加密市场总爆仓3.72亿美元，多单爆仓2.8亿美元。比特币的清算地图显示，上方65000-66000美元压着约2.8亿美元的北京时间7月29日凌晨，加密市场迎来短期反弹行情，比特币价格成功站稳24000美元整数关口，日内最高触及24380美元，24小时整体涨幅突破4%，带动以太坊、主流山寨币同步小幅拉升，全球加密货币总市值单日回升超600亿美元，但市场整体震荡加剧，多空博弈空前激烈 。 本次短期反弹，核心驱动力来自全球宏观流动性预期变化。本周美联储召开新一轮议息会议，市场普遍预判本次将维持现有高利率不变，9月再度加息的概率有所回落，美元指数小幅走弱，资金短暂回流高波动风险资产，比特币作为加密市场龙头率先受益 。 其次，地缘局势带来的资金避险分流助推本轮上涨。近期中东美伊对峙持续升温，市场担忧霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻推高全球通胀，部分海外投机资金选择配置比特币作为另类避险资产，短期买盘集中涌入，直接推升价格突破关键压力位 。 但亮眼反弹背后，市场暗藏巨大不稳定因素，波动风险持续放大。数据显示，比特币冲高过程中，全网杠杆资金分歧严重，24小时内超3.2万投资者爆仓，爆仓总金额接近3亿美元，多空双向踩踏频繁上演，短短数小时内价格上下波动超800美元，普通投资者极易在剧烈震荡中亏损本金 。 长期制约市场的两大利空并未消[Opening Act]
A popular post was very striking: Some coins "rise for a month, but drop 90% in one day." The real cruelty isn't that big bearish candlestick, but when the drop starts, even though there are buy prices on the screen, you find you can't sell your position at all.
Many attribute this crash to "manipulators dumping the market." Manipulators may exist, but focusing only on conspiracy theories can cause you to miss more replicable signals: prices are rising, but liquidity is not growing together; positions are piling up, but order book support is getting thinner and thinner; after the first large bearish candle appears, stop-losses, forced liquidations, and panic sell orders start to trample each other.
[Why is the popularity concentrated here?]
I just sampled the recommended flow from OKX Planet: one post centered on the sentiment of "one month up, one day drops 90%" got about 68,900 views; another review centered on huge losses and forced liquidations had about 25,400 views. What they seized together wasn't the "next hundred-fold coin," but the moment every trader feared — seeing profits turn into losses but not having time to exit.
So this article won't talk about bulls or shorts, but will break down one thing: before small coins crash, they usually send out three death notices first.
[Photo 1: Prices hit new highs, but depth hasn't kept up]
The candlestick tells you where the last trade was, and the depth of the order book tells you: if you really want to sell now, how much capital is willing to take in below?
As of the snapshot, the latest price of LAB-USDT-SWAP is about 0.1379 USDT, with a 24-hour range of about 0.1331–0.1460South Korea's apology for a single stock leveraged ETF this time is not about "no apology," but rather that regulators have assumed that high-volatility products entered the market first, only restoring trust after the incident. This sequence applies to any market: products first amplify volatility, then retail investors bear the drawdown.
This is related to $BTC—not because the crypto world is comparing it to traditional finance, but because the same set of risk appetites is flowing back. Currently, $BTC spot is at 64,434, up 1.44% in 24 hours, with highs and lows between 64,744 and 62,742, showing considerable volatility; More importantly, with the contract/spot turnover ratio reaching 10.0x, the funding rate is only +0.0056%. This shows that many people are chasing leverage, but their willingness to pay hasn't lost control. The market is still driven by trading, not by one-sided squeezing.
My action was straightforward: I placed a 5% short above $BTC 64,600, stop-loss at 64,980, and targeted 63,500 first. It's not that I'm bearish on the major trend; it's just that contract trading at this level is too heavy, and spot trading hasn't pushed prices higher. If 64,980 rises, I will reverse and catch the rally, not holding on.
Regulatory apologies can repair emotions, but they can't fix the fact that leverage naturally amplifies volatility. The market teaches everyone to keep some positions. $BTC #BTC#美联储即将公布利率决议 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, deposit stocks experienced sharp fluctuations
Record profits have only led to a sharp drop, which is nothing new in financial markets.
Retail investors look at the absolute numbers in earnings reports, while major funds focus on the gap in expectations.
The early AI frenzy drove the valuations of SK Hynix and the entire storage sector skyrocketing. The market not only overdrew the excess profits brought by HBM, but even mapped out the big picture for the coming years. When expectations are pushed to the limit, any performance that doesn't far exceed them is actually a negative factor.
This is a long-planned liquidity harvest.
Taking advantage of the timing of earnings releases, the main funds took advantage of retail investors' liquidity rushing in at record profits to buy bargains, completing extremely smooth high-level distributions.
You think you've bought a high-quality asset that has pulled back, but in reality, you're taking on a capital chip that makes institutions several times more profitable. The storage industry itself is cyclical. Aside from the shortage of HBM on the AI side, demand from traditional PCs and mobile phones remains very weak. Once the market starts worrying about the sustainability of tech giants' AI capital expenditures, the sector's valuation cuts are just beginning.
You absolutely cannot bottom-fish now. Sharp fluctuations mean a huge divergence between bulls and bears, and the chips are undergoing extremely brutal distribution and rotation. In a clear breakdown downtrend, the large shocks at high levels are often just relays to the decline, never a signal of bottoming.
The real bottom has never been this kind of jumping script, but rather a stagnant water with shrinking volume after continuous declines. Catching this inertia and accelerating throwing knife now is like using your capital to test how sharp the main players' slashing scythe is.
Patiently wait for market sentiment to collapse further. The entire storage sector needs to fall another 15% to 20%, completely shattering the currently holding long margin market. Only when the market experiences a desperate volume surge and then shifts into a flat, contraction-heavy sideways move is the truly safe entry time.Tonight is a major global financial test, with the Federal Reserve reshaping the short-term market trajectory #美联储即将公布利率决议 Analysis: Interest rates unchanged + hawkish speech (high probability of benchmark rally) 1. US stocks: Nasdaq, AI computing power, and memory chips continue to face pressure; Funds continue to cluster around blue chips like Apple, which have stable cash flows, intensifying sector divergence; Micron, SanDisk, Hynix, and other cyclical storage stocks remain weak and fluctuating downward $MU $SKHYNIX $NVDA $SAMSUNG $SNDK 2. Crude oil and gold $CL$XAUT The dollar strengthened slightly, while gold faces short-term pressure; Crude oil is resilient, supported by Middle Eastern geopolitical factors, showing strong resilience and limited gains at high levels. 3. Bitcoin, Ethereum $BTC $ETH Non-yielding crypto assets are weighed down by rising US Treasury yields, resulting in overall weak volatility; Ethereum's linked AI sector has seen a larger drop than Bitcoin's, while most altcoins have fallen. Mainstream expectations remain high interest rates, but the overall tone is likely to be hawkish. Hawkish stances will suppress US chip and cryptocurrency performance; Signaling rate cuts will lead to a recovery in all risk assets; An unexpected rate hike could trigger a global market plunge, so bulls and bears are currently watching for the final policy implementation. #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver data tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp volatility 韩国股市跌势不止，都是杠杆惹的祸？
已经跌了一月有余的韩国股市，再度创出阶段新低。昨日，韩国综合股价指数盘中跌幅一度扩大至11%，截至收盘下跌5.98%。截至昨日韩国股市收盘，三星电子下跌5.23%，SK海力士下跌9.61%。
从“超级牛市”到“全线崩盘”，韩国股市的变化与杠杆ETF直接相关。2026年1月，韩国金融服务委员会批准以三星电子和SK海力士为标的发行单一股票杠杆ETF；5月27日，16只产品正式上市。彼时，全球股市正处于AI牛市行情之中，美光等美股存储股持续走高。挂钩三星电子、SK海力士的两倍杠杆ETF，得到韩国投资者追捧，产品规模在一个月内从4.9万亿韩元飙升至16万亿韩元。
三星电子和SK海力士市值占韩国综合股价指数的比重超过50%。使用两倍杠杆买入两家企业股票，推动个股上行；两家企业股票股价上涨，进一步拉动韩股大盘上涨；大盘走强又吸引更多投资者加码杠杆ETF。一个不可逆转的资金漩涡就此形成，一旦入场，绝大多数参与者都难以置身事外。
根据华创证券数据，韩国杠杆ETF约60%的资产规模由个人投资者持有。近年来，韩国家庭资产配置持续从不动产加速向权益类资产转移，散户投资者数量从2019年的约620万增至2025年的约1450万。截至7月16日，2026年以来外资累计净卖出韩国股票约188万亿韩元，散户投资者为同期主要净买入力量。
外资抛售韩股的筹码高度集中于三星电子、SK海力士两家存储龙头企业。而杠杆ETF的推出，加快了韩国散户投资者承接外资抛盘的节奏。
7月27日，韩国财政部长具润哲正式致歉，承认政府在未充分审慎评估的情况下推出了单只股票杠杆型ETF，这一决策加剧了市场的剧烈波动。
7月1日至10日，韩国券商因客户交易未能按期结算引发强制平仓，涉及股票规模合计4258亿韩元。7月9日，强制平仓金额1422亿韩元，单日平仓规模占全部未结算标的比重升至10.2%。7月10日之后，韩国股市依旧维持单边下行态势。
资本市场不会因为一纸道歉止跌。多数情况下，资产价格上涨由流动性驱动，一旦资产价格脱离“基本面”转为“流动性”，价格运行便演变为严重依赖于新资金涌入支撑市场。
但新资金终究存在上限，这场被杠杆摧毁的韩国牛市想要再度复苏，难度很大。
（文中观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。）#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 $SAMSUNG The flow of money in crypto is constantly 🔄 spinning
The easiest trade at this time: buy on the upside, wait for the momentum to slow down, when money and attention move elsewhere, go short to push the price down 📉
$ZEC, $HYPE, $LIT are recent examples. But this scenario has been going on for quite some time.
Notably, traders are being psychologically manipulated by $ETH. ETH has a slight outperformance compared to $BTC, while BTC is having a relatively positive 📊 month
History shows that BTC usually rises in July and falls in August. With "tardfi" having completed its crypto takeover, the summer months have become even less ⚠️ glamorous
I mean: keep a strong but flexible perspective. If you're buying on momentum, fine. But don't be fooled that the price can only go up from here.
Take profits and be ready to change your judgment when the upward momentum slows 💡 down
Most of the fluctuations come from trend trading. That usually happens before the spot rises, but the lack of📊 Record earnings weren't enough to satisfy the market.
SK Hynix delivered its strongest quarter on record, driven by robust AI and HBM memory demand. Despite record revenue and profits, the stock came under pressure as results fell short of investors' lofty expectations.
The reaction highlights a familiar theme: markets price future expectations, not just strong earnings. Even minor misses can trigger sharp sell-offs when valuations are stretched.
The weakness also spilled over to $SNDK and other memory names, but this appears to reflect sentiment and valuation resets rather than a deterioration in industry fundamentals.
Looking ahead, the long-term AI story remains intact. Continued investment in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and data centers should keep demand for HBM, DRAM, and NAND strong, making companies like $SKHYNIX and $SNDK important names to watch.
#FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss 隔夜外围市场走出极致分化行情，美股头部大型科技股盘前多数保持上涨态势，微软、苹果、Meta等权重标的小幅走强，算力、互联网应用赛道情绪偏暖；存储芯片龙头SK海力士美股ADR盘前小幅下行1%，全球存储板块内部多空分歧进一步放大。 一涨一跌的外围格局，会直接左右A股早盘开盘情绪，尤其是刚完成超级IPO上市的存储、半导体整条产业链。很多散户只盯着海力士小幅下跌就预判A股芯片全线低开闷杀，或是看见美股大盘科技上涨就笃定科技赛道全线反攻，两种极端思路都不符合当下真实市场逻辑。结合外围个股基本面、全球存储周期、长鑫科技上市后的定价重构、A股存量资金流向完整拆解本次外围行情的传导逻辑，梳理全天各大板块运行节奏、买卖节点，同时区分哪些方向会被外围带动、哪些赛道完全走出独立行情。 一、外围盘面完整拆解：一边巨头普涨，一边存储龙头小幅走弱 1、美股大型科技股盘前普涨，背后是AI应用端逻辑持续兑现 盘前交易阶段，美股市值排名靠前的科技企业整体表现稳健，微软依托Azure云业务持续超预期的财报数据维持上行走势，苹果消费电子订单数据回暖带动股价小幅走高，Meta、谷歌跟随大盘震荡走强。 这批头部公司上涨的核心底Apple's market value surpasses $5 trillion for the first time! The "money-saving faction" crushed the "money-burning faction" to claim the top spot globally
Overnight, a historic moment was born in the US stock market, with Apple's stock price surging intraday and its market value surpassing the $5 trillion mark, becoming the second company in the world to reach this milestone. Just the previous trading day, Apple officially surpassed Nvidia, returning to the top spot in global market value after more than a year.
On one side is Apple, whose market value is steadily climbing and its cash flow remains ample; On the other side, Nvidia plunged 5% in a single day, marking its largest single-day drop since June, with its market value dropping to $4.77 trillion. The market value throne of trillion-yuan giants has shifted on the surface, ostensibly as stock price rotations, but in essence, the capital market has undergone a major pricing reshuffle: the "money-burning faction" who spent money wildly is cooling down, while the "money-saving faction" who insists on financial discipline is experiencing a value reassessment. I'm really going crazy!! ！
Help, sisters
There's so much information today that I don't know which to read first
The 48-hour US-Iran ceasefire has broken again
The Korean stock market circuit breaker plunged
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision tonight
HYPE drops 10% in one week after unstaking
Three narratives are fermenting simultaneously
Then guess what
BTC is still at 64,000
motionless
It was like watching everyone perform
But many people have already died in South Korea
KOSPI fell more than 8%, triggering circuit breakers
SK Hynix fell 16%
South Korean retail investors lost 530 trillion won in two days
Some people bought the dip and got their three stars cleared in just two hours
So my judgment is
The crash of the Korean stock market is both bad news and good news for crypto
The bad news is that some Korean funds are trapped in the stock market
The good news is that every time Korea experiences a circuit breaker in history,
Funds will rotate toward crypto
The proportion of individual investors in South Korea is too high
When the stock market is out of play, they turn to places with higher volatility
And if tonight's FOMC leans dovish,
This time window coincides with the overflow of Korean funds
This could trigger a small BTC rally
There are a few more noteworthy topics today, so let's talk about them together:
#停火48小时告吹, the US and Iran negotiated while fighting
The ceasefire fell apart instantly, but neither crude oil nor BTC moved much. The marginal effect of geopolitical news is diminishing. The truly useful signal is that the US and Iran are fighting while negotiating, which shows neither side wants to escalate the situation but is still trying to save face. For crypto, as long as Hormuz is not fully blocked, the impact is limited.
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations
SK Hynix set a historical revenue record, but the market did not meet expectations. Expectations management has gone wrong, and with the ADR-Korea stock swap officially starting today, short-term selling pressure is expected to persist. But NVIDIA and Google's guarantees for AI data centers show that long-term demand is not a problem. Storing this piece of medicine is good in the short term.
#美联储即将公布利率决议
FOMC results will be released tonight. The probability of maintaining interest rates is high, but Walsh's press conference is the real focus. If he is tough on inflation, BTC could pull back to 62K. If the wording is mild, 64K might be the starting point for the next rally. Once the decision is implemented, don't bet on direction.
$BTC $ETH #韩国股市 #美伊局势 #FOMC#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations
SK Hynix's Q2 report, to put it bluntly, is "explosive numbers but not meeting market expectations." Single-quarter operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW, up 557% year-on-year, setting a new historical record; Revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, also a record high. But the market had previously bet on 64 trillion yuan in profits and 84 trillion yuan in revenue, but failed to reach either end.
Why did he make such a big profit but still get criticized? The root lies with SK Hynix itself—HBM's share is much higher than its peers, and the current round of soaring spot prices for traditional DRAM and NAND has been largely benefited by long-term contract price locking + capacity tilt to HBM, so it hasn't fully benefited. Additionally, GM DRAM rose about 30% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, and NAND was in the mid-50%–60% range, both narrowing compared to Q1, with average price elasticity falling short of expectations.
The first reaction after the market was to dump first. Hynix's ADR once dropped nearly 9%, dragging down the Korean stock market. KOSPI triggered the sidecar, causing Hynix's Korean stock to plunge over 10% in early trading. But two reassuring words from the call reassured the mood: first, "no sign of AI investment slowing down," and second, HBM4 had already mass-produced and shipped in Q2, signing long-term supply agreements with about 10 customers (usually locked for around five years). Right after the market closed, the market reversed from a decline to a rise. On the morning of July 29, Hynix's Korean stock rebounded 4%+, and Samsung Electronics rose around 6%.
Interestingly, on the same day, there was a split in the industry chain: the previous night, US AI hardware stocks all plunged, with Philadelphia Semiconductor down 4.49% (the version you wrote about 6.03% was exaggerated, but based on the July 28 close, it was actually around 4.49%), SanDisk dropped 14+, and Micron dropped nearly 9%; Seagate Technology reversed its stock price to 10%+ after the after-hours earnings report, with near-term hard disk capacity locked in until 2028. On one side is "sell after setting a record," on the other is "seize capacity three years from now." The underlying concern is valuation anxiety, not a collapse in demand.
When it comes to BTC, let's look at it in two layers.
In the short term, such sharp fluctuations in storage stocks will follow risk appetite. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell, the Nasdaq fell for five consecutive days, and SK Hynix first fell and then rallied after the session. BTC, as a high-beta risk asset, was dragged last night to test the 62,700–63,100 range, and now it is fluctuating between 63,800 and 64,500. The logic for the short position at 65014.2 is still correct—64000 to 64500 is a concentrated zone for short liquidation. Before an ineffective breakout occurs, any rebound will leave room for shorting.
In the medium term, Hynix's HBM4 mass production + 5-year long-term contract ironically confirmed that "AI computing power demand is rigid." The disagreement in storage boards is about "valuation vs. prosperity," not "whether there is demand." BTC's narrative as the underlying clearing layer of the computing power economy will only become harder with the certainty of AI infrastructure capital expenditure, rather than softness.
Here's how I handle the operation:
• Continue to hold short positions at 65,014.2, move stop loss down from the original position to target 64,500;
• If the price stagnates within the 64,000–64,500 range, add to short positions and set a unified stop loss at 64,800;
• First, look at 62,000 below; if it breaks down, target 61,000;
• SK Hynix's earnings report has confirmed that the AI fundamentals have not collapsed; in the short term, these ghost story-style fluctuations are reserved for those who placed orders in advance.
$SNDK $BTC $SKHYNIX A friend invited me on a trip, but I said I had no money
In fact, the money is lying around in the exchange
She asked me what your money was for
I said I was watching the Fed's mood
She said she didn't understand
I said, 'There's big news tonight.'
FOMC interest rate decision
It determines whether borrowing money is expensive worldwide
But what concerned me most today wasn't the FOMC
It's the situation on HYPE's side
Institutions queue up for release
Renowned funds have released nearly $200 million in pledges
Some funds also transferred over 26 million yuan to OKX
Then guess what
HYPE has dropped from over 60 to over 50
Dropped 10% in a week
At the same time, some institutions are accumulating shares in the opposite direction
Grayscale also claims that HYPE's forward P/E ratio is only 15 to 18 times
Underestimated
Moreover, the SK Hynix contract on HL has been inserted
The platform said it would compensate
So my judgment is
HYPE's recent decline is more of a chip game
It's not that the fundamentals are wrong
Institutions are not releasing mortgages to sell off the market
Instead, it is to free up liquidity
The HL pin insertion incident will have a short-term impact on confidence
But the platform's willingness to pay shows they are protecting their reputation
From on-chain data, someone is taking over HYPE's position
If overall sentiment warms up after the FOMC,
HYPE may be the fastest to rebound
And by the way, let's take a look at what everyone has been talking about lately:
#HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in one week
Multicoin unlocked nearly 200 million yuan, with funds accumulating in reverse, and Grayscale says it's undervalued—what do these three signals look like? It's like a game of exchange between institutions. Retail investors panic when they see a 10% drop, but smart money buys at low levels. HYPE's fundamentals remain unchanged; HL remains the leading on-chain derivatives. Let's wait until the unstaking wave passes.
#Hyperliquid海力士永续插针, the platform promised to compensate for liquidation losses
HL Shanghai Lishi perpetual pin insertion led to liquidation, and the platform promised compensation. This has a short-term impact on HL's reputation, but it also shows that the scale of the on-chain derivatives market has reached a level that cannot be ignored—a tokenized perpetual contract for a traditional stock has a 24-hour trading volume exceeding BTC. After the incident subsides, it's best to look at fundamentals.
#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
The open-source AI export controls discussed during the Biden era are being abandoned, which is a signal that is easy to ignore but very important. If even Meta can't open-source its own AI models, the entire open-source ecosystem will be damaged. Now that expectations of the ban are easing, both AI developers and DeFi projects can breathe a sigh of relief.
$HYPE $BTC #HYPE #链上衍生品 #开源AII originally wanted to buy a birthday gift for my boyfriend
But the gift money was all in the coins
He said, 'It's fine, you're in charge of the money anyway.'
I said, do you know what I'm in charge of?
BTC is moving sideways at 64,000
ETH 1900 is fluctuating around the market
It's SOL 73 Blades playing dead
However, several major events were indeed happening simultaneously today
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision tonight
The banking industry collectively pressured the CLARITY Act
NVIDIA and Google have joined forces to provide debt guarantees for AI data centers
Then guess what
These three things actually point in the same direction
Regulation is moving toward certainty
Institutions are accelerating their entry
AI infrastructure is burning money like crazy
Each line tells the same story
This industry is growing
So my judgment is
If the CLARITY Act passes
USDT and USDC obtained compliant status
The capital capacity of the entire crypto market could double
The banks' current pressure precisely shows that they are afraid
Afraid stablecoins will take their share
Nvidia and Google are willing to guarantee AI data centers
This indicates that the demand for AI computing power has reached the trillion-yuan level
Tokenized computing power and decentralized infrastructure will continue to have ongoing narratives in the coming years
I glanced at today's news page and had a few points I wanted to mention:
#银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY stablecoin may be regenerated
The banking industry has collectively stepped in, indicating that the CLARITY Act has truly reached its final stage. What banks fear is that stablecoin issuers will obtain compliance frameworksBTC is like weaving a web, and retail investors are the fish in the net. 🐟 Have you noticed that the urge to "go up" when watching the market has been getting weaker lately? Honestly, I've been watching the market these past few days until I'm a bit bored. It's not that the market is stagnant, but that it moves too "standardly"—there are billions of dollars in clearing zones above and below, like a clear card telling you: come on, chase after it, and if you chase, I'll stab you. The US semiconductor stock market was just hit hard, and Morgan Stanley released an ETP announcement. Long-term is good, but in the short term, the market doesn't buy it, and profits drift away like air. So, the real challenge now isn't how to judge direction, but how not to be knocked out before the direction appears. Here, I try to break it down to see what the market is trading and what is being overlooked. Let's start with the surface logic: - On the liquidation map, the accumulation on both the upper and lower sides of BTC is astonishingly large. Once a direction is triggered first, pin insertion is almost inevitable. High leverage is like an ant on a needle—one shot and it dies. - The US AI sector remains under pressure, with semiconductors plunging sharply. In crypto, those AI concept coins and hash rate narrative coins have outrageously high Beta values, and they are the first to attract capital. Don't think "a big drop will lead to a rebound"—during liquidity contractions, high-beta assets are the first to be abandoned. But what is the market really "repricing"? It's emotional fatigue after the "event itself" is priced in advance. Morgan Stanley's ETP is a good thing, but everyone has long expected it. The saying "good news landing is bad news" is especially true in a weak market. What the market lacks now isn't news, but people willing to pay real money to buy the market. SoJust after handing in my resignation to my boss, Turning around, I saw the price dropped
He quietly sat back down at his desk
Luckily, it hasn't dropped much
The big cake is still the same big cake
Swinging around 64,000
But today, something made me restless
Apple's market value has reclaimed the top spot globally
It directly pulled Nvidia off its throne
Then guess what
Morgan Stanley has launched spot ETPs for ETH and SOL
This is the top Wall Street bank stepping in personally
It's not a small institution testing the waters
Moreover, tonight, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are all releasing earnings reports
The Big Three submit their papers on the same day
The performance of tech stocks directly affects the direction of U.S. stocks
This will affect whether BTC continues to move sideways or take off
So my judgment is
Morgan Stanley's ETH and SOL ETPs are much more important than expected
Previously, only BTC had an ETP
ETH and SOL are marginalized
Currently, mainstream institutions are systematically laying out the entire ecosystem
ETH saw very strong buying interest in the 1850 to 1900 range
If tonight's earnings report + MS dual news ferments,
ETH may launch before BTC
Breaking into 2000 is not impossible
By the way, I also took a look at recent developments, which are in several directions:
#苹果公司市值重回全球首位, surpassing Nvidia
Apple has quietly reclaimed the top spot in global market value. This wave is based on the story of AI terminals—Apple phones integrate AI, shortening the replacement cycle. Although Apple has always been relatively quiet in the crypto space, if one day the world's largest company says something about the web...My mom asked me where all the money went
I said it's about financial management
She doesn't know that my financial management is about buying coins
I didn't even realize that my wealth management was just watching BTC lie flat at 64,000
But today is actually quite interesting
The 48-hour ceasefire between the US and Iran has ended in failure
The fighting and chatting returned to square one
HYPE dropped 10% in a week.
The agency is still releasing detainees
Then guess what
BTC has surprisingly remained quite calm in the face of these reports
Pulled back from 62K back to 64K
But the situation in South Korea was already in an uproar
KOSPI fell 8%, triggering circuit breakers
SK Hynix fell 16%
South Korean retail investors lost 530 trillion won in two days
Some people bought the dip and got liquidated within two hours of Samsung trading
Panic was already at its peak
So my judgment is
The sharp drop in the Korean stock market may actually bring fresh energy to crypto
Historical experience shows that every time the Korean market plunges,
Some of the funds will flow toward crypto
Because the proportion of retail investors there is too high
When the stock market falls, they come looking for greater volatility
But pay attention to the rhythm
Currently, South Korean retail investors are still in the stage of cutting losses and blowing out their positions
They only enter once they recover
It takes about one to two days
Let's also chat about a few trending topics to see if any of them are worth following:
#停火48小时告吹, the US and Iran negotiated while fighting
The ceasefire agreement broke before it even warmed up, and crude oil prices barely moved indicating the market was completely immune. BTC is even more stable, with 64K neither falling nor rising. The current situation is that neither side wants to go to war on the battlefield, but is applying maximum pressure. For crypto, as long as Hormuz is not completely blocked,Did you bottom-fish! $SKHYNIX
South Korean authorities will hold an emergency meeting Wednesday evening to discuss recent sharp stock market fluctuations and measures to stabilize the market.
Currently, it is in the early stage of a "policy bottom support," which carries extremely high risk. It is not recommended to blindly bottom-fish with heavy positions immediately.
To determine whether now is the right time, you need to calmly consider the following dimensions:
1. Negative factors are not fully exhausted (core risk point)
The news mentioned that although the finance minister apologized and said he would intervene, he clearly pointed out that "leveraged ETFs are only one of multiple factors causing market turmoil."
This sentence is very critical. It means that the sharp drop in the Korean stock market, besides this ETF product, may have deeper underlying issues (such as KRW depreciation, large-scale foreign capital withdrawal, weakening economic fundamentals, etc.). If it is only policy statements without substantial "national team" capital entering, panic selling in the market will be difficult to stop immediately.
2. Beware of the time lag between "policy bottom" and "market bottom"
There is an old saying in the stock market: "Policy bottom" is not the "market bottom."
The emergency meeting held at 17:00 today represents a willingness for "policy bottom support." But historically, after policies are introduced, the market often experiences a "final drop" or a secondary bottom due to insufficient confidence. Before the government buys in with real money or introduces specific short-selling restrictions, the current statements are more of a "soothing agent," and the market may not buy it.
3. News has a lagging effect
The news you saw was released this afternoon (July 29). As a mature market, the key to determining tomorrow's opening lies in the performance of the U.S. stock market, KRW exchange rate tonight until tomorrow morning, and the Korean stock night session/futures. Deciding to "bottom-fish" now is a gamble under incomplete information.Korean stocks rebounded somewhat at the close, but the truly dangerous signals remained unchanged.
KOSPI fell over 8% intraday, but ultimately still fell 6%; SK Hynix posted record profits, but its stock price closed down 9.4%, and Samsung dropped 4.8%.
A few months ago, when earnings exceeded expectations, the stock surged; now, performance is average and will fall, and even if the results are good but don't exceed the most optimistic expectations, they will also fall. The market is not killing current profits, but rather overvaluations and overdrawn futures.[Graphic Observation | Oil Price Transmission] At 18:46 Beijing time, WTI was $81.8820 (+4.55%), Brent was $85.5800 (+4.42%), a price difference of about $3.70 per barrel.
Observation perspective: Here, we don't just look at oil price fluctuations, but also at their transmission to inflation expectations, dollar liquidity, and risk asset valuations. If oil prices rise but the US dollar strengthens in tandem, crypto assets may actually come under pressure.
Golden Ten Background: July 29, 2026 Golden Ten Futures Breakfast: The informal ceasefire has ended, Iran launched missiles at US military bases this morning, crude oil prices surge—reviewing daily market trends and grasping market trends. Good morning, listeners. Today is Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Welcome to "Futures Morning Rush Hour." Futures morning peak, the first of millions of futures elites...
Verification point: WTI holds above the 20-day moving average and the spread is stable, consolidating within a range; If the spread widens and falls back below the moving average, demand pressure will be priced in again.
Risk warning: If OPEC+ caliber, inventory, or geopolitical events exceed expectations, the above transmission observations may need to be reassessed. For market observation purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.#停火48小时告吹, the US and Iran negotiated while fighting
The Yemeni Houthis have stopped bombing ships and have switched to charging "tolls."
Reuters cited sources saying that the Yemeni Houthis are considering charging fees for ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. There is currently no specific timeline, but the news itself is enough to raise concerns.
On July 20, the Houthis announced a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, expanding their attacks from the Red Sea to waters beyond the Gulf. Now they are studying "charging"—shifting from armed attacks to "institutionalized charges"—a longer-term and more difficult approach.
"You bomb me, I charge your boat fare — the Houthis are learning from Iran.
The difference is that Iran is a direct military blockade, while the Houthis choose "institutional pressure." Once fees officially begin, ships that don't pay won't get through. For shipping companies, either detour the Cape of Good Hope (doubling the time and cost) or pay for the route.
The strategic significance of this Houthi expansion has been underestimated. Its target has never been just Saudi Arabia, but all countries that support Israel and the United States. From the Red Sea to the Gulf, they are turning the "blockade of the Red Sea" into a sustainable rule, not a one-time attack. If this move succeeds, the "throat" of global trade will be completely choked.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet patrols the Red Sea, but facing the situation where "ships are stuck in the Mandeb Strait and must pay to leave," the problems that military means can solve are becoming increasingly limited.
The impact of this incident on oil prices may be more lasting than imagined. The Red Sea route accounts for about 12% of global trade. If transit costs rise systematically, inflationary pressure won't be just "temporary." Every time oil prices are pushed higher, the Fed's logic for interest rate hikes becomes even stronger.
The current situation is: Hormuz is in a stalemate, Mande is under pressure, and the two most important global energy corridors are narrowing simultaneously. The real risk of oil prices is not on the battlefield, but in the bills.
$CL $BZ Minnesota wasn't locked into a prediction market, and this is really related to Robinhood $HOOD
Minnesota originally planned to ban the prediction market starting August 1, but before the law even took effect, it was blocked by a federal judge. For Robinhood $HOOD, the fastest-growing product line in company revenue is precisely the forecasting market.
Robinhood did not participate in this lawsuit. Minnesota was sued by the CFTC, with Kalshi and Polymarket later joining. On July 27, the judge issued a preliminary injunction, believing they had a better chance of winning. While the lawsuit continues, the state government is temporarily unable to enforce this injunction.
Why is Robinhood involved? Its event contracts are provided by Robinhood Derivatives and are traded on CFTC-regulated cooperative exchanges. Minnesota wants to ban such products with state-level gambling laws, and Robinhood is also following the path of federal regulation. The judge temporarily accepted the CFTC's position, so Robinhood naturally had one less trouble.
This business is already quite large. According to Robinhood's May data, users traded a total of 3.9 billion event contracts, a 22% increase over April; Daily average was 126 million copies, an increase of 18%.
Here, the 3.9 billion refers to the number of contracts, not the $3.9 billion turnover. Each contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the results are settled at either $1 or $0. The number of contracts looks large, but it's not the same as the trading volume of stocks.
Robinhood has also started collecting money from these deals. Starting June 1, the platform will calculate commissions based on contract prices, charging up to $0.01 per contract, with exchanges possibly charging up to $0.01 extra. 3.9 billion contracts cannot be directly multiplied by one cent as income, because the actual commission varies with price and account level, but the larger the volume, the higher the fee.
Last November, Robinhood predicted that one year after launching the market, over one million users had already traded 9 billion contracts, calling it the fastest-growing product line by revenue. The company later formed a joint venture with Susquehanna to acquire exchanges and clearinghouses regulated by the CFTC, preparing to add more trading to its own infrastructure.
Wall Street is already adding expectations to this business. John Todaro of Needham recently raised Robinhood's earnings forecast and target price, explicitly citing that stocks, options, and event contracts are all accelerating. KeyBanc also raised its target price, reminding that after a period of gains, Robinhood is not its favorite pre-earnings trade.
Both sides are concerned about practical matters. The business is indeed moving quickly, and the stock price already accounts for significant growth. Robinhood will release its Q2 earnings after market close on July 29 Eastern Time, with the market currently expecting revenue of about $1.29 billion and earnings per share of $0.43. If the market is only good with the number of contracts and the revenue contribution is unclear, investors may not always price high growth.
This ruling also failed to address the state government's issues all at once. It is only a temporary ban, and Minnesota will continue to fight lawsuits. Robinhood's own help page also states that event contracts are not tradable in every state; Maryland currently cannot use them, and Nevada users cannot open new sports contracts.
This lawsuit is a positive for $HOOD, and its weight isn't big enough to determine the stock price alone. It preserved Robinhood's current business path and saved some regulatory friction. How many fees and new users 3.9 billion contracts can be left in the end will be more useful in tomorrow's earnings report.The main event of the day will be the Fed meeting. The consensus expects the upper bound of the rate to remain at 3.75%. Futures price in about a 35% chance of a hike. We consider such a move unlikely. Consumer inflation according to the CPI remains low, the economy is growing without signs of overheating, and tightening monetary conditions will hardly offset the price increases caused by oil supply disruptions, but will hit investments and consumption.
The relatively high probability of a hike is largely due to the fact that the new regulator head, Kevin Warsh, gives fewer preliminary signals. Because of this, market participants are forced to factor uncertainty into prices. Keeping the rate unchanged will be perceived positively but by itself does not guarantee a significant market rally. A rally requires a combination of factors, including stabilization of AI sentiment. We believe the Fed chair will not rule out the scenario of tightening monetary conditions at the September meeting, so expectations of a rate hike will just be postponed.
#FedRateDecision #OKXTraderVoices