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Tether made another big profit this quarter—Q2 net profit of $1.5 billion, with gold reserves reaching 146 tons. With this data, crypto folks probably breathed a sigh of relief: the USDT we use is actually quite solid.
First, where does this 1.5 billion yuan profit come from? Mainly, it still lies on U.S. Treasury bonds to collect interest. Tether currently holds over 100 billion USD in US Treasury bonds and can make a fortune just from interest payments. Simply put, the larger the USDT issuance, the more money it earns. This business model is even more stable than a money printer. As of the end of June, USDT had a circulating supply of about $184.6 billion, holding over 60% of the market share, remaining the undisputed "number one" in the stablecoin world.
Now, let's talk about gold. What does 146 tons mean? It has already surpassed the gold reserves of many countries' central banks. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has always been a die-hard gold fan, and previously claimed that "gold is the original Bitcoin given to us by nature." From 126 tons at the end of 2025 to 146 tons now, Tether has basically maintained a weekly buying pace of two tons, hoarding gold even more aggressively than a big lady.
For the crypto market, this sends two signals: first, USDT reserves are becoming increasingly solid, with a $4.1 billion reserve surplus further reducing the risk of bank runs; Second, Tether is building a hybrid reserve model of "US Treasuries + Gold + Bitcoin," benefiting from US dollar interest dividends while adding a safe haven buff with gold. In today's geopolitical turmoil and fiat credit fluctuation, this "betting on both ends" strategy actually makes USDT appear more reliable.
After all, the entire DeFi ecosystem, contract trading, and cross-border transfers all rely on USDT at the underlying level. The more stable Tether is, the smoother the crypto machine can spin. 146 tons of gold as the ballast and 1.5 billion yuan in profit as a base—this steady fundamentals are truly the reassurance the market needs most. $ETH 📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.08.01 (Saturday)
📌 Core judgment
The AI mainline isn't over, but the market only rewards companies that can turn massive investments into revenue and cash flow.
Microsoft and Amazon have proven that demand for AI and cloud computing remains strong; Apple, on the other hand, weakened significantly due to AI commercialization, supply constraints, and guidance issues. Meanwhile, US stocks rose while cryptocurrencies fell, indicating that risk appetite has not fully recovered.
💾 Storage industry chain: demand remains strong, but chips remain chaotic
South Korean storage stocks rebounded violently, with SK Hynix and Samsung rising over 20% at one point; However, Micron fell about 6%, SanDisk dropped about 5.2%, showing clear regional divergence.
Fundamentals remain strong:
Demand for AWS and AI computing power is growing rapidly
HBM and server storage demand is strong
Tech giants continue to expand their data center investments
Storage prices and supply pressures are still rising
However, there are also medium- to long-term expansion risks. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changxin are all increasing capacity, and oversupply may reappear in the future.
Therefore, now is the time to wait for Micron and SanDisk to stabilize their declines consecutively, rather than chasing after a single-day surge in Korean storage stocks.
💻 The Seven Giants and AI
Amazon was one of the biggest winners this earnings season, with AWS revenue up 37% year-over-year, proving that AI investment is turning into real income. However, massive capital expenditures have already turned free cash flow negative, and the cloud business must continue to maintain high growth going forward.
Although Apple's performance exceeded expectations, the market remains concerned about supply constraints, rising storage costs, and the pace of AI commercialization, so in the short term, it may continue to lag behind Microsoft and Amazon.
📊 Changxin Technology
Changxin Technology closed at about 53.97 yuan in its first week, briefly breaking through 60 yuan during trading. Due to the low proportion of circulating shares in the early stages, the current price is still amplified by the scarcity of new shares and market sentiment, so it cannot yet be considered a stable valuation.
CXMT perpetual on Hyperliquid is suitable as a global capital sentiment indicator, but with A-shares closed and futures trading continuing over the weekend, large price differences may occur, making it unsuitable for high-leverage arbitrage.
🪙 BTC and HYPE
BTC fell back to around $62,900 and did not follow the Nasdaq's rise, so in the short term, it remains weak in volatility. Only when it stabilizes above $65,000 can it be considered a true strengthening.
HYPE's long-term business logic remains, but the token unlock will be set for August 6. Unlocking does not necessarily mean selling, but when the market is weak, it increases supply pressure. In the short term, avoid going long with high leverage.
🌍 The largest macro risk
Brent crude oil climbing back above $90 is the most important variable to watch for next week. If it continues to break above $95, inflation and expectations of Fed rate hikes may heat up again; Breaking above $100 would exert systemic pressure on tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
💡 My view
AI demand hasn't collapsed, but the market is far from reaching a stage where it can fully chase gains.
The fundamentals of the storage sector remain strong, but valuations, expansion, and capital holdings still need to be digested. Next week, the focus will be on crude oil, US Treasury yields, US non-farm payrolls, and whether Micron and SanDisk can truly stop their decline.
The above is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.📉 A Softer Dollar Isn't Lifting Crypto—And That's Worth Watching.
The usual macro playbook isn't working right now.
Between July 29–31, the Japanese yen strengthened while the U.S. dollar softened—a backdrop that would normally support risk assets like $BTC and $ETH.
Instead, crypto weakened.
Friday made the divergence even more obvious:
📈 S&P 500: +0.7%
📈 Nasdaq: +1.0%
📉 Crypto: Still under pressure.
The timing across markets isn't perfectly aligned, so it's too early to claim direct causation.
But one thing is clear:
A weaker dollar and stronger equities haven't translated into stronger Bitcoin or Ethereum.
That suggests crypto is currently facing its own headwinds beyond the usual macro drivers.
Until price starts confirming strength, $BTC and $ETH remain vulnerable to relative underperformance—even in a generally supportive macro environment.
Markets don't always move together.
Watching those divergences often reveals more than the headlines.
NFA | DYOR
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay $SNDK US stocks rebounded across the board before the market opened, with panic quickly recovering
Before the US stock market opened, storage stocks such as Micron Technology, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all turned positive, having generally plunged 3%-4% earlier; Seagate rose 4.6%, and Western Digital gained 2.2%.
The previous sharp decline in the sector stemmed from market concerns about the storage cycle peaking and SK Hynix's performance falling short of expectations, reflecting a short-term emotional crush.
Core support remains unshaken: AI computing power continues to drive the supply-demand gap for HBM high-end memory, long-term orders from manufacturers lock in downstream demand, fundamentals remain resilient, and negative factors have been fully priced in.
Short-term sector volatility persists. Going forward, focus will be on tracking the pace of storage contract price increases in Q3 and the implementation of AI capital expenditures. The recovery momentum from overseas giants is also expected to be transmitted to the A-share storage industry chain. #Hyperliquid海力士永续插针, the platform promised to compensate for liquidation lossesETH is bullish and bearish, so why can't short-term hype be directly seen as a breakout signal?
According to OKX Onchain OS's official community sentiment snapshot at 16:00 (China time) on August 1, ETH recorded 21 mentions in the past hour, with sources including X 12 times and news 9 times. There were 700 mentions in 24 hours; Converting the long window to hourly average, the latest hourly speed is about 0.72 times. This indicates that the current discussion pace is slower or faster relative to the long window average, and does not correspond to price direction.
The tone structure adds another layer of information compared to the total volume alone. The ETH one-hour sample has a slightly bullish proportion of 14%, a bearish 48%, and a neutral rate of about 38%; The 24-hour proportions correspond to a bullish 40% and a bearish bias of 13%. The short window is clearly bullish and bearish, but the sample only has 21 instances, so any concentrated event can cause the ratio to fluctuate rapidly.
This set of numbers best answers "What tone the ETH discussion currently leans to," rather than "How much capital is betting on rising in the market." Text classification does not read wallet positions, nor does it weighting every mention by capital size. A high-engagement account and multiple small accounts are just text samples; forwarding, quoting, and news retelling may even describe the same thing.
Source splitting can help determine the quality of a hot topic. If X mentions increase but news remains scarce, the topic may first spread on social media; If news sources increase simultaneously, it means there is more verifiable event material. However, an increase in news volume does not guarantee positive content; it is still necessary to return to agreements, foundations, regulators, or original company announcements, avoiding filling in unconfirmed details with secondhand headlines.
For ETH, subsequent validation can be divided into two lines: network usage and market structure. Network usage includes transaction fees, active addresses, L2 settlement, and staking changes; Market structure includes spot trading, futures basis, funding rates, and options skew. Community bias Only when partial echoes are found in these independent data can the tone signals be upgraded to more reliable market judgments.
Also, be aware of the 24-hour average limit. 700 times divided by 24 is a convenient benchmark for comparison, but it smooths out spikes caused by press conferences, regulatory announcements, or US trading hours. If the latest hour is below the average, it may just be a time zone difference; If it is above the average, it could just be a single news outburst. At least two to three consecutive snapshots are necessary to qualify for trend continuation.
A more stable conditional statement is: if the proportion of ETH overweight remains after the sample expands, the mention speed regains above the long-window average, and the sources expand from simple X to multiple official or news channels, market attention will be more solid. Conversely, if the next round of total supply declines and the ratio quickly returns to neutral, the current round should be regarded as short-window noise.
Currently, official data supports only two points: ETH's one-hour bullish tone is higher than bearish, and the short-term discussion speed is about 0.72 times the 24-hour average. It does not prove a breakout, net capital inflow, or synchronized on-chain demand increase. The article sets a short validity period and retains the original indicator so that the next update can be directly replaced, rather than turning the attractive ratio into an outdated conclusion in the absence of new evidence.📊 The Market Is Rotating, Not Rallying
While much of the market has been under pressure, capital is increasingly rotating into established blue-chip names with stronger cash flows, dividends, and defensive characteristics.
What's Happening?
In July, many AI and semiconductor stocks experienced sharp pullbacks after extended rallies, prompting investors to rotate toward sectors viewed as more resilient.
Capital has increasingly favored:
🏦 Banks
🥃 Consumer blue chips
💰 High-dividend, lower-valuation companies
Why the Shift?
🔹 Profit-taking after the AI rally.
🔹 Investors seeking more predictable earnings and dividend income.
🔹 A greater focus on valuation and cash flow as uncertainty rises.
Why Banks?
✅ Attractive dividend yields relative to government bonds.
✅ Continued institutional interest.
✅ Support from buybacks and broader policy measures.
Why Consumer Blue Chips?
Companies with pricing power and stable demand continue attracting defensive capital.
Improving pricing conditions and historically lighter investor positioning have also helped sentiment recover.
The Bigger Picture
This isn't necessarily a rejection of technology.
It's a reminder that markets rotate.
When one theme becomes crowded, capital often searches for opportunities elsewhere until leadership changes again.
The key question going forward:
📌 Does technology stabilize and regain momentum?
📌 Or does defensive capital continue outperforming?
Follow the capital—not just the headlines.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay
$BTC $ETH $SNDK BREAKING: Following Solana’s increase of the per-block compute limit from 60M to 100M CUs, roughly 10–23% of blocks now exceed the previous 60M CU cap each hour.
$SOL #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
Amazon's earnings report is somewhat like a factory rapidly expanding.
The market originally thought the AI spending cycle would face skepticism, especially since the previous day $XMETA's earnings lesson showed: capital expenditures keep rising, but monetization hasn't fully caught up, making investors worry "where is the return on the money burned?"
But $XAMZN Amazon's script this time is completely different.
Q2 revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year; AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth since the end of 2021; operating profit was $16.6 billion, up 64% year-over-year, with profit margin rising to 39.4%.
Simply put, Amazon is not just telling the market "AI will be profitable in the future," but proving "AI is already starting to make money."
This is why the stock surged over 9% after hours.
The market is not focused on how outrageous the $220 billion capital expenditure number is, but on whether this money is flowing into areas that truly generate cash flow.
My understanding is that the AI industry has entered a new phase:
Phase one: everyone competes on who invests more, who can buy more GPUs, and build more data centers.
Phase two: the market starts asking when these investments will turn into revenue.
$XMSFT Microsoft’s answer is "AI is already paying off," with Azure growth proving real enterprise demand.
Meta seems to be telling the market "the future space is huge," but investors worry about a long burn period in between;
while Amazon is in a more comfortable position—expanding AI infrastructure while continuously making money through AWS.
AWS is like a money-printing machine in Amazon’s hands, providing enough cash flow for the company to keep betting on AI, rather than relying solely on market faith.
However, the $220 billion capital expenditure is also a double-edged sword.
The market is willing to reward the investment now because cloud growth is still accelerating. But if AWS growth slows in the coming quarters and AI revenue doesn’t match capital investment, today’s "strategic investment" could be redefined as "overexpansion."
Historically, many tech waves are like this: early on, investors are willing to value the dream, but ultimately, what determines stock price is the speed of profit realization.
So personally, I am optimistic about Amazon’s short-term performance but won’t be blindly optimistic.
AI demand is real, as verified by AWS and Microsoft cloud business growth. But competition in AI infrastructure will become fiercer; the future battle won’t be about who spends the most, but who can convert computing power into cash flow.
Amazon now is more like continuously building new lanes on a highway. The question is not whether there are cars, but whether these traffic flows can bring enough toll revenue in the future.
In the short term, the market may continue to reward AWS acceleration, but in the mid to long term, whether the $220 billion capital expenditure can generate corresponding returns is the core factor determining Amazon’s valuation.
In this AI wave, the ultimate winner won’t be the one who burns the most money, but the one who turns AI into a business.
The above is just my personal opinion!BTC
Digital gold with unmatched liquidity and institutional adoption.
Structure is firm with buyers defending key support.
EP
62950 - 63090
TP
TP1 63600
TP2 64200
TP3 65000
SL
62500
Liquidity is clustering above 63200 with large bids absorbing. Structure shows a controlled pullback and higher low. Reaction at EP should flip 63150 to confirm continuation toward 64000.
Let’s go $BTC #AMZNMissesButRallies
When the first thunderous crack of the coffin breaking echoed from underground, all the greedy tomb raiders thought they had stepped on a deadly chain of poisoned crossbows—until they saw the cloud pyramid built with $220 billion of flesh and sacrifices.
History’s rhymes never repeat exactly, but they always sing the same elegy. In the script where Meta was buried on the spot due to out-of-control capital expenditures the day before, Amazon was supposed to naturally lie in the same burial pit. The Q3 guidance miss was like a sinister omen quietly extinguished in the southeast corner of the tomb chamber. According to ancient tomb-raiding rules, this is a chilling ghost lamp death trap. In ordinary ancient ruins, such a staggering gamble allowing annual spending to soar to 220 billion would have long fallen into an irreversible quicksand trap, swallowing all explorers whole.
However, Amazon used an extremely hardcore excavation technique to carve out a completely different secret passage.
AWS’s massive $42.2 billion revenue, soaring 37% year-over-year, is like a golden dragon erupting from deep underground. The $16.6 billion operating profit and astonishing 39.4% gross margin resemble an ancient tomb guardian beast that spits out money, smashing this deadly coffin into a soaring altar! The market didn’t flee in panic; instead, it pulled out a killer bullish candle with a 9% surge. This is not a rational valuation calculation; it’s tomb raiders’ frenzied worship of the cloud’s divine power—so long as the cloud keeps spitting out real gold and silver, these greedy modern-day marauders are willing to empty their coffers and indefinitely fund the most expensive gold rush in history.
Microsoft sacrificed a formed idol, Meta only painted mirage-like murals on the tomb walls, but Amazon simultaneously completed a miracle and a cash heist in this temple. Is AWS the supreme relic proving this tech revolution truly has real gold, or a $220 billion death bill that will eventually trigger civilization’s collapse?
On the volatile trading surface of the US stock market linked target $XSPCX, ancient inscriptions intertwining three thousand years of civilization’s rise and fall with capital frenzy are engraved. Ancient Egyptian pharaohs emptied the treasury to build pyramids; Roman emperors poured national power into constructing the Colosseum. Today, these Silicon Valley giants are merely betting on the same historical rhyme—burying panic with a flood of cloud cash flow, building gods with bottomless capital expenditures.
As long as that tomb guardian beast keeps roaring, the tomb raiders in the dark will never stop prying the idol with iron shovels. And the final outcome of this gamble has long been written on the underground broken walls: either the cloud miracle protects the empire for eternity, or the $220 billion colossal debt will completely collapse the entire temple. What is most easily overlooked on Friday is not Amazon's surge, but $QQQ's intraday surge to 695.65 and finally close at 687.99. A single weight pushed the index up, but long-term rates did not cooperate: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.745%, with prices still below the 20-day moving average of 701.02.
This money followed the earnings report, not the valuation recovery.
Before Monday's market open, look at Friday's high-low range. Reclaim the intraday high, then discuss testing the moving average; Breaking below Friday's low, a rebound will expose the weakness. The VIX is still in a normal range and not a panic market, but low volatility does not mean interest rate pressure has disappeared. Let's take a look first, not just the first shot. Data as of the close of US stocks on July 31 does not constitute investment advice.
#美股盘前 #纳斯达克100 #美债收益率 #风险管理The excitement belongs to others, but liquidity is yours—the most easily overlooked aspect of this market is actually the "momentum" quietly stratifying itself. Have you noticed that even though the market is doing well, many people's accounts just don't move, and some even shrink? My biggest takeaway from watching the market these past two days is: it's not that the market is out of money, but that money has become extremely "picky." On the surface, SOL, APT, SUI, and SEI—these new Layer 1 players—are all rising with higher trading volumes, but if you look deeper, you'll find this heat isn't evenly spread; it's more like a single pipe pumping all the water into several leading pools. Next to it are ADA, XRP, LTC, which are clearly established mainstream brands but are like forgotten old toys in a corner, stretched sideways to make people sleepy. This is the first gap: you think it's a broad rise, but it's actually a feast for the strong and a leftover feast for the weak. Looking further at infrastructure and AI, names like TAO, FET, NEAR, RNDR are still on the trending list, and capital is willing to pay them a premium because they have narratives and room for imagination. But what about AGIX, OCEAN, and AIOZ in the same track? They could barely get the soup anymore, so they could only gather some crumbs. The DeFi side is the same. Veteran blue chips like UNI, AAVE, MKR, and PENDLE quietly absorb TVL, as if quietly accumulating money; But those small protocols can't retain users or funds, and they can only watch helplessly as they become background figures. So on the surface, it's a flourishing scene, but in reality, it's all capital concentrated on the marketTether earned $1.5 billion in Q1, with gold stockpiling 146 tons—is it trying to transform into a "digital gold central bank"?
Pharaoh bluntly stated that the leader of stablecoins is becoming the leader of gold. In Q2, net operating profit was 1.5 billion, USDT issuance reached 184.6 billion, and market share exceeded 60%. Gold reserves increased by 14 tons, bringing total holdings to over 146 tons, which is about $18.8 billion at current prices, already surpassing the gold reserves held by many central banks.
But there is a detail hidden in the report. Excess reserves were halved from 8.2 billion to 4.1 billion, and with a profit of 1.5 billion, the safety cushion was cut in half. Why? Because "operating profit" does not include the rise and fall of gold and Bitcoin, and in Q2, gold fell about 15%, with Bitcoin dropping from 68,000 to 58,000. 1.5 billion yuan in operating profit simply can't cover the asset impairment pit.
Simply put, Tether's move is "apparently profiting 1.5 billion, but losing tens of billions on paper." But they have 4.1 billion yuan in excess reserves to hold on, so it's very solid.
For company credit, there is no need to worry in the short term; USDT redeeming capacity remains sufficient. For the market, this proves that major players are bundling crypto assets with physical gold, which is a long-term positive development.
Pharaoh still said, good orders are waited for, not chased.
Follow Pharaoh and never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $SOL #Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons $BTC
Open interest is once again at extremely elevated levels.
Throughout this choppy market phase, every time open interest has reached similar levels, it has marked a pivot both for open interest and for price.
On average, those OI resets came with price moves of roughly 5% as leverage was flushed out of the market.
If history repeats itself, a move back toward the 65K region could be a realistic scenario.Renowned analyst PlanB has just provided its latest assessment of Bitcoin's current trend. PlanB posted on X stating that Bitcoin's July closing price was $62,818, while the 200-week moving average (200WMA) corresponds to $63,000. The two almost overlap, and historically, this position has often been highly correlated with macro bottom areas. Key Analysis: July closing price: $62,818 200WMA: $63,000 PlanB Judgment: Bitcoin has entered the bottoming process What does "bottoming" mean? PlanB points out that the bottoming process usually takes 1-3 months, during which BTC may fall to lower levels. This judgment aligns with previous analysts' views—the bottom is not a sharp bottom of a "V-shaped reversal," but rather a region repeatedly tested and tested multiple times. Looking at historical data, Bitcoin experienced similar long-term bottoming structures in 2015, 2019, and 2022—the price repeatedly fluctuated around the 200 WMA, and finally completed its direction selection after months of sideways movement. Several variables to watch: The CLARITY bill is pending: The legislative window before the August 7 recess is closing, and if the bill is blocked again, it could become a macro catalyst triggering the "final drop." The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hits a 19-year high: global asset pricing anchors continue to climb, putting systemic pressure on risk asset valuationsGood morning, brothers. Another day of being crushed by the market.
Macro tone: When the US CPI data came out, the market was completely stunned. Inflation is as sticky as 502, and expectations for rate cuts have shifted from "set in stone" to "everything in your dreams." The US dollar index is holding firm near 104, US Treasury yields are rising again, and funds are shrinking toward "safe assets." Risk assets? Let's pee for a while first. In short, the macro narrative now is "high interest rates continue to endure, liquidity is counting on massive liquidity injections."
Capital flows: Just look at the market—BTC is still stalling around 63,000, ETH has flopped to 1,865. These two stocks are now a black hole in crypto capital, almost draining all the altcoins dry. Interestingly, the funds didn't go far; they all crowded into the OTC tokenized US stocks. Look at XSPCX 109, XSKHY 145, XSPY 744, XNDK 1225, XSOXL 113—these moves are much more stable than Dabing. Money is smart—it's better to buy US stock tokens than stay in the crypto world to catch the flying knife. Isn't that ironic?
Crypto positioning: Right now, Bitcoin and ETH are just 'high volatility indices'—linked to tech stocks but lacking fundamentals, and compared to gold, they lack safe-haven attributes—just pure sandwich cookies. At this level, bulls are waiting for the "last drop" to buy the bottom, while bears are shouting "a rebound is short," and neither side is willing to accept the other. But what about on-chain data? Stablecoins barely flowed in, and BTC reserves on exchanges remained high, indicating that off-exchange funds were just watching the show, with on-exchange tokens being swapped—a classic case of "stock carving."
Resonance Conclusion: Don't talk about 'long-termism' with me. In this market, only the old man can keep his principal. Those who shout about "going all-in to buy the dip" are either stupid or bad. If it really drops to 58,000, would you dare to add more? Do you dare? Survive first, and wait until those Federal Reserve bastards can finally spit out a bit of a "dovish" vibe. The market isn't short of opportunities; what it lacks is the balance in your account. Hold your hands in check, don't be the chive box that gets harvested repeatedly. That's it.$BTC
Open interest is once again at extremely elevated levels.
Throughout this choppy market phase, every time open interest has reached similar levels, it has marked a pivot both for open interest and for price.
On average, those OI resets came with price moves of roughly 5% as leverage was flushed out of the market.
If history repeats itself, a move back toward the 65K region could be a realistic scenario.Personally, I have always believed that USDC is indeed stronger than USDT in terms of compliance, and this is almost undisputed.
Circle regularly discloses reserve assets, offering greater regulatory transparency and easier trust from traditional financial institutions.
As for USDT, I don't think it's a major problem; otherwise, it wouldn't have operated stably for so many years, let alone become the world's largest stablecoin.
But compared to USDC, USDT's transparency is indeed not that high, which has been a central topic of market discussion.
However, I think many people overlook one thing.
The biggest moat of stablecoins has never been just compliance, but liquidity.
Today, whether on exchanges, OTC, cross-border payments, or the vast majority of crypto transactions worldwide, USDT has created a huge network effect.
Just like WeChat Pay may not be the best technology, but everyone uses it; Visa didn't succeed because it was the most advanced, but because it was accepted worldwide.
So I believe USDC will continue to dominate institutional and compliant markets in the future, while USDT is more like the "dollar" in the crypto world and will be difficult to replace in the short term.
What truly deserves attention is not who will eliminate whom, but how large the future incremental stablecoin market will be. If this market continues to expand, I think USDT and USDC are more likely to work together to make the pie bigger, rather than zero-sum competition. $USDC $USDT Fundamental Research Report $SEI / Sei (Public Chain/L1) $0.04 (24h -0.56%)
2026-08-01 19:58 Publicly available data snapshot
One-sentence conclusion: Sei ($SEI) overall score 69/100, rating fundamentals meet standards but have flaws. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token value transfer still needs to be observed.
Sei (token $SEI), public chain/L1 sector. Focused on parallel EVM with high throughput. Benchmarked against SOL, SUI, and APT. Traditional collaboration between enterprises relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which causes gas surges, TPS constraints, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents during high concurrency. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version v6.6.0, with 3,946 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $22.93M, TVL $40.47M. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (for LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $8.8K, and token holders buy and burn at an annualized rate without a burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 3,946 valid submissions in 90 days, 94 active contributors, latest version v6.6.0. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 10,000,000,000.0, circulating 6,733,333,333.0 (67.3%), FDV is $414.44M, next unlock undisclosed (share of circulating undisclosed), burn buyback annualized rate No clear buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Let's look together with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Sei $279.06M, SOL not disclosed, SUI not disclosed, APT not disclosed. For FDV, Sei $414.44M, SOL undisclosed, SUI undisclosed, APT undisclosed. Annualized revenue: Sei $8.8K, SOL undisclosed, SUI undisclosed, APT undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Sei is not disclosed, SOL is not disclosed, SUI is not disclosed, APT is not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation: Market cap 279.06M, FDV $414.44M, P/S 31,855.8x, FDV divided by revenue 47,310.6x. Pessimistic outlook: $279.06M at 50-70% off, fluctuating in a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burns are realized, enterprise clients are coming in, FDV corresponds to P/S, aligns with the top companies. Final judgment: Solid fundamentals (score 69/100). The token value transmission path is unclear, with only governance incentives. Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Three major risks: short-term massive unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. The above is the logic and judgment of the publicly available information and does not constitute buying or selling advice. Core financial indicators deviate by more than 30%, and the conclusion needs to be reassessed.
After the report bro finishes, take a closer look.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitAfter studying it all night, although I admit the fundamentals of storage aren't bad, I feel there's still a long way to go in the short term (rationally).
July has ended, and we await the beautiful August......
During this period, we've actually written a lot about storage and have been helping everyone recharge their faith.
Whether it's cloud vendors' capital expenditures, AI server demand, or growth in HBM, server DRAM, and enterprise SSDs, from a longer-term perspective, I still haven't changed my judgment: AI infrastructure still requires more computing power and storage, and the industry's long-term logic hasn't suddenly disappeared just because stock prices have fallen.
However, a long-term positive fundamentals does not necessarily mean the stock price will immediately reverse in the short term.
......
This round of storage storage plunged rapidly from a high level, with a significant drop and also hurt the confidence of many investors. During earlier rises, funds were overly concentrated, and many people bought at high levels; Even if there is one or two strong rebounds now, there will still be a large amount of chips waiting to break even and reduce positions. What the market needs is not just a big bullish candlestick, but time, capital, and new fundamental data to gradually rebuild confidence.
So seeing the recent rebound, I'm certainly happy, but I don't immediately assume storage has entered the main rally again. Right now, it seems more like a mood recovery after extreme pessimism, and a real trend reversal still needs further data to verify.
The market already knows that AI demand still exists, and that cloud providers like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are still increasing investment.
Next, the key is whether capital expenditures can continue to rise, whether storage prices can keep rising, whether orders for enterprise-grade SSDs, HBMs, and server DRAM can continue to exceed expectations, and whether storage companies' earnings guidance can continue to improve.
Only when these new positive factors continue to emerge can the market possibly accept higher valuations again.
So from a macro perspective, I believe what is most needed now is not to rush to determine whether one day will be the absolute bottom, nor to worry about missing out just because of a single rebound, but to prepare for the long term.
The worst-case scenario might be that storage stores won't immediately reverse in a V-shape, but will repeatedly fluctuate amid high volatility, surging today and falling tomorrow, repeatedly giving everyone hope but once again exhausting patience. This process may be even more grueling than the first rapid drop, and it's easier to lose money by chasing surges and selling lows repeatedly.
But you shouldn't completely deny the long-term value of storage just because of short-term difficulties.
A drop in stock prices does not mean demand has disappeared, and a rebound is not blocked either, nor does it mean the industry has reversed downward. What really needs to be distinguished now is: whether the company's fundamentals are deteriorating, or if the market still needs time to digest the previous gains, trapped positions, and overly high expectations.
At least based on the data released so far, I have not yet seen a complete collapse in AI infrastructure or storage demand. It's just that the industry has risen too quickly before, and market expectations have been pushed too high. So even if the performance is good now, stronger positive factors are needed to push the stock price upward again.
So my attitude remains positive: remain optimistic in the long term, remain patient in the short term, and be mentally prepared for the possibility of market fluctuations.
Don't immediately go all in just because of a big bullish candle, and don't assume all logic is over just because of a single pullback. Long-term positions can be kept according to your own plan, while trading positions should be handled cautiously, leaving yourself enough cash and room for adjustment.
The story of storage isn't over, but the road ahead may not be so easy either.
We can continue to trust long-term fundamentals, but we must also respect the complexity of short-term markets.
Those who can truly weather this round of volatility are not necessarily those who judge every rise and fall with the most accuracy, but those who, after preparing for bad outcomes in advance, still have positions, cash, and the patience to stay in the market.
I wish every friend still in the arena to maintain their confidence......🚨Strategy holds 840,000 $BTC while starting to sell: Is this about to crash?
Many people see "Strategy selling BTC" and immediately react that institutions are starting to clear their positions.
But the latest financial report offers a more complicated answer: this is not a bearish sell-off, but rather marks the shift of corporate BTC treasuries from "buying only, not selling" to the "asset + cash flow management" stage.
As of July 26, Strategy holds 843775 $BTC, with its holdings still growing 25% this year; Total cost was $63.69 billion, with an average holding price of 75,476.
The company sold approximately $218.4 million worth of BTC during the year, which was used to pay part of the preferred stock dividends. Based on its BTC market cap of $54.77 billion, the sale amount accounts for only about 0.40%.
Therefore, this is not a large-scale liquidation, nor is it enough to trigger sustained sell-offs on its own.
What is truly noteworthy is that Strategy has established a BTC monetization plan. The board authorized it to continue selling coins to replenish US dollar reserves, pay dividends and interest, and repurchase company securities.
This means that corporate BTC treasury no longer has only one path to "financing and buying coins," and ongoing cash flow obligations may also translate into new sources of selling coins.
The financial report shows that Strategy's net loss in the second quarter was $8.22 billion, with $8.32 billion in unrealized losses from digital assets. This is mainly due to accounting revaluation caused by BTC price declines, which does not mean there was an outflow of $8.32 billion in cash during the same period.
Now, let's look at the price structure.
BTC in the chart is quoted at 63,227.7, still below the 4H MA200 at 63,453.2 and the MA120 at 64,423.3. The news did not cause BTC to crash immediately, but bulls also failed to reclaim the key moving average.
Current priorities remain:
Rebound short > wait for confirmation > chase long directly
If the rebound to 63,500–63,900 is blocked, and the 15M rebounds below 63,450, first look at 63,000, 62,500, and 62,000; The 1H physical market closed above 64,420, and the bearish scenario failed.
To go long, you must wait for the 1-hour close above 64,420, and if a pullback can hold it, then watch 65,000–65,500.
If the 4-hour physical price closes below 62,000 later, then further observe 60,000 and the previous low of 57,750.
The real risk is not how much was sold this time, but that the corporate BTC treasury already has mechanisms to continuously sell coins to replenish cash flow.
In the next article, I'll verify as is: Which triggers first, 64420 or 62000?
Do you think the corporate treasury's "selling currency and paying interest" is normal cash management, or is it a new long-term supply risk?
For learning and exchange purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
#Strategy终止逢低买币, Q2 recorded a paper loss of 8.2 billion yuan This is crazy.
Every time the S&P 500 falls within 3% of its all-time high, and the Nasdaq falls by 8% or more, the market rebounds.
Since 2000, this has only happened 10 times. We are now in one of those cases.
After this divergence, QQQ's forward-looking returns:
• 1 month: Median +4.5% (78% win rate)
• 3 months: Median +8.0% (89% win rate)
• 6 months: Median +11.1% (89% win rate)
• 1st year: Median +13.3% (100% win rate)
SPY's forward-looking returns:
• 3 months: Median +6.0% (100% win rate)
• 6 months: Median +7.4% (100% win rate)
• Year 1: Median +14.3% (100% win rate)
In the 3, 6, or 1 year after this signal was issued, SPY has never fallen. Not once in 26 years.
When the market is near a peak but tech stocks are selling off, that's rotation, not a recession. Tech stocks always catch up.
So what should you do? Buy low when people are afraid.Why is Google willing to "backstop"?
Data center developer Nexus Data Centers is negotiating with a bank syndicate led by Morgan Stanley to raise about $15 billion in debt financing for a large AI data center project located in Hubbard, Texas. The key driver behind this is Google—the search and cloud giant under Alphabet.
Google has agreed to provide multi-billion-dollar credit guarantees (backstop) for Anthropic (developer of Claude) covering lease and power payment obligations in this project, which includes four data center lease contracts and related power purchase agreements. In return, Google is expected to receive approximately 20% equity in the data center and its supporting power plant.
This is not a simple "friendly sponsorship" but a typical move by tech giants in the current AI infrastructure boom, leveraging financial engineering to drive large-scale computing power expansion.
Core structure of the deal
The project is led by Nexus Data Centers, located in Hubbard, Texas, planning to build a 1.6 GW natural gas power plant (behind-the-meter, i.e., on-site direct supply) to solve the most challenging power bottleneck for AI data centers.
The financing plan roughly consists of:
About $14 billion in bridge loans + revolving credit facilities, totaling approximately $15 billion.
The bank syndicate is led by Morgan Stanley, with Evercore serving as Nexus's financial advisor.
Google's guarantee only covers the "minimum necessary amount" required by the banks, not a full backstop. If Anthropic defaults, Google must bear the corresponding payment obligations but retains the rights to take over the underlying leases or sublease them.
Anthropic plans to deploy TPUs (Tensor Processing Units) jointly designed by Google and Broadcom in this campus. The chips themselves are financed through independent supplier financing arrangements between Anthropic and Broadcom, further dispersing risk.
For Google, this is a dual gain of "credit for equity + chip orders": it does not directly record all construction costs on its balance sheet, while locking in computing power customers and sharing long-term project returns.
Why is Google willing to "backstop"?
This is not an isolated event. Google has sharply increased the scale of its credit guarantees in recent years. By mid-2026, the nominal amount of potential backstops for third-party data center lease payments has surged from about $6.5 billion nine months ago to approximately $44 billion. These guarantees are mostly accounted for as credit derivatives, with the fair value recorded as liabilities far below the nominal amount.
The core logic has three points:
Accelerate TPU ecosystem expansion
Facing Nvidia's absolute dominance, Google needs more third-party customers to actually use TPUs. By providing financing support for data center projects, Google enables developers to build campuses at lower costs and faster speeds, thereby absorbing its chip capacity.
A delicate balance of risk and capital efficiency
Building data centers directly would significantly increase capital expenditures and debt. Through the "guarantee + minority equity" model, Google transfers some construction and operational risks to banks, developers, and tenants (Anthropic), while retaining upside returns. If the project succeeds, the 20% equity can bring considerable returns; if problems arise, Google has the right to take over the assets.
Following the industry trend of "off-balance-sheet" financing
Peers like Meta and Microsoft also use similar structures (SPVs, leases, guarantees) to isolate debt. Google's move is both a competitive necessity and a proactive use of Wall Street financing tools.#谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底，换取两成股权 The biggest retail trap isn't price. It's unit price illusion.
Buying high FDV + low float projects = you become VC exit liquidity. The chart looks "cheap," but behind it are monthly unlocks ready to dump. When those tokens hit, spot buyers are forced to absorb the sell pressure. Unlock = dump. That's the structural reality.
We've seen it on repeat:
L2s + infra: $ARB $OP $STRK $ZK $BLAST $MANTA $ALT $DYM $TIA
L1s + oracles: $SUI $APT $SEI $PYTH $JUP $W $EIGEN $REZ $ETHFI
All of them get crushed when big unlocks land. The Sword of Damocles is real.
Capital rotates to where supply is clean.
DeFi + RWA leaders win here: $ONDO $MKR $AAVE $UNI $PENDLE $ENA $SNX $CRV $COMP $LDO $RPL. Real revenue, predictable unlocks, no surprises.
Same in AI + DePIN with actual demand: $TAO $FET $NEAR $RNDR $AKT $AIOZ $GRT $THETA $FIL $AR
Gaming gets wrecked instead: $GALA $BEAM $IMX $AXS $SAND $MANA $PIXEL $PORTAL $PRIME $ILV. Constant ecosystem unlocks kill the trend.
Irony? Burned retail ends up in memes: $PEPE $WIF $BONK $FLOKI $POPCAT $BOME $DOGE $SHIB $MOG $BRETT. No VC cliff. No unlock calendar. Just fair launch.
Check tokenomics before price.
#AMZNMissesButRallies
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#MSFT450BInADay #30YYieldAt19YHigh #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay The Federal Reserve has held steady for the seventh consecutive time, and the market's response is—selling long-term bonds and voting with their feet. After the Federal Reserve's decision, investors aggressively sold off 30-year U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields up by 14 basis points to nearly 5.23%, marking a 19-year high since 2007. As of the close on July 31, the 30-year Treasury yield stood at 5.27%, surging more than 30 basis points in July alone, marking the largest July gain since 2005. What is the market worried about? The signal from the bond market couldn't be clearer: despite Federal Reserve Chair Walsh's repeated tough statements to "curb inflation," he is in no hurry to use interest rate tools to fulfill his promises. Market concerns about inflation having exceeded the target for five consecutive years cannot be suppressed by "talk without action." Bondholders are both pushing down the yield on the shortest Treasury (betting on no rate hikes in the short term), and on the other hand demanding higher returns for holding long-term Treasuries to hedge against inflation risk in the coming years. The 2-year and 30-year yields widened simultaneously, making the yield curve steep at least the lowest since the mid-1990s Federal Reserve meetings. Wall Street institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America have successively issued harshly worded research reports, directly pointing out that Walsh is facing a "credibility crisis." What does this mean for the crypto market? The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is known as the "anchor of global asset pricing." When it continues to climb, it means long-term borrowing costs are rising and the valuation discount rate for risk assets is rising. This means that for crypto assets like Bitcoin, which are highly sensitive to liquidity,I don't think the opportunity for Web3 has disappeared.
What truly disappears is the low-cost copying and mass participation phase that still yields good returns.
Previously, the comparison was:
- Whose account has the most
- Who did it earlier
- Who can cover more items
Next, the most likely comparison is:
- Who can determine whether the product has genuine demand?
- Who controls the cost of money and time
- Who can consistently retain real usage behavior
- Who knows when to stop investing
This affects both studios and regular users.
The automation and scale advantages of studios remain, but costs will keep rising; Ordinary users may not have an advantage in numbers, but they can deepen a single account or a few truly used products.
So now, I won't participate in a project just because "there might be an airdrop."
What I'm more concerned about is: even without token expectations, is this product still worth using?
Recent @base have made ordinary users clearer and more confident.
The next round of Web3 opportunities may not reward those who do the most, but rather those who judge better, participate more authentically, and control costs better.According to SA's disclosure on 13F, Leopard's puts are mainly large-cap stocks and indices like NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and SMH, not for high-beta stocks like SNDK or NBIS.
Mainly because the puts for these high beta stocks are ridiculously expensive.
I also considered buying puts at the time. I glanced at it in early July, and based on SNDK's implied volatility exceeding 130% at the time, a $1 million spot position with a one-month at-the-money put for full protection could cost about $150,000.
After three consecutive months of rolling, assuming IV remains high, premiums alone could eat up nearly half of the principal. The stock didn't fall, but was slowly worn down by Theta
So I sold it directly at the time, without buying put for protection, which wasn't cost-effective. At the time, I thought I'd buy back if it broke through the right sideIn one week,
USDC net redemptions were about $1.6 billion,
USDT net redemptions were about $900 million.
A total of $2.5 billion stablecoins exited the market.
This is not just portfolio rebalancing,
this is capital directly leaving the market.
After the hawkish FOMC,
institutions would rather buy U.S. Treasuries yielding close to 5%
than continue holding non-yielding stablecoins.
At the same time,
ETF inflows have slowed,
and treasury company financing has cooled down.
The two largest incremental capital engines
have both started to hit the brakes.
Going forward,
the market competition is not about stories,
but about whose cash flow is stronger.
BTC may be entering a true stock competition phase.#30YYieldAt19YHigh #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay The fiercer the rise, the greater the weakness.
$BEAT Today's trend really made me laugh.
A strong bullish candlestick surged straight to 4.77, leading mainstream coins in 24 hours.
But the fiercer the price rises, the more gaps there are. I can see through the dealer's trump card with just a glance! Rapid pull to lure the bull, high-level distribution.
At this moment, it's time for my counterfeit hunters to step in.
Set sail again! 100U hunts altcoins, surges to 10,000U!
BEAT was indeed strong today, but I chose to add to my short position at this level.
Why? Three signals told me it was time to kill.
First, historical laws are clear.
BEAT has fallen from its all-time high of $11, with every pullback to a key level, never exceptions.
Today it hit 4.77, with an absurdly large deviation rate; chasing long positions carries far greater risks than gains.
Second, the fundamentals cannot support this price.
BEAT is the token of the BNB Chain Web3 Dance Troupe Audiera, generating $2.87 million in weekly revenue, which is indeed real income.
But with a market cap of $1.374 billion, corresponding to annualized revenue of less than $150 million, and a price-to-earnings ratio close to 10 times, this valuation is already quite significant for a Web3 gaming project.
More importantly, on August 8, Coinbase is set to delist BEAT, and liquidity contraction is imminent. The counter-trend rally is most likely to attract long sellers.
Third, the long-short data has already revealed the intentions of the main players.
On the surface, the bullish trend seems strong, but on-chain data doesn't lie. Big players hold short positions, and the main players are quietly retreating.
Retail investors are chasing, big players are running—I've seen this scenario too many times.
Operation Perspective: Short positions have been added, average price 4.7475, forced liquidation 6.87, stop-loss set at 5.0, first target 4.0, second target 3.5.
The higher the price, the harder it falls. The Knockoff Hunter should make a move.
$BTC
$ETH
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 💀 SOL at $73—Ten consecutive monthly moving averages down, ETFs buying, KOLs silent, and who is dumping?
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SOL is currently quoted at $72.89, down about 1.4% in 24 hours. It has plunged over 75% from its January high of $295, marking ten consecutive red monthly candlesticks—this is the longest losing streak in SOL's history.
📊 Four sets of data reveal the truth:
1. Technical Aspects: All moving averages are the ceiling
SOL's current price is below all major moving averages over the 7-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day periods, with the 200-day SMA at $86.13, which is 18% higher than the current price. The $73-75 range is densely packed with SMAs 7, SMA50, EMA 12, and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands—above all are the ceilings. Currently at the end of a triangle convergence pattern, a breakout is imminent.
2. ETF: MSOL leads the way, but only 13.82 million was inflowed in July
On July 30, the net inflow into the SOL spot ETF was only $403,900, supported only by Morgan Stanley MSOL. On July 27, MSOL raised $19.06 million in a single day. But for the entire July, the net inflow of SOL ETFs was only $13.82 million—a stark contrast compared to BTC's $205 million and ETH's $343 million. Institutional funds on SOL haven't really started working yet.
3. Smart money is highly consistent in going long—a warning sign
Among retail investors, 73.8% are long, and among top traders, 75.6% are also bullish, with a long-short ratio as high as 3.09. When everyone bets on the same direction, the market often chooses a reverse shakeout. In the past 24 hours, $6.13 million in long positions have been liquidated—the bears are breaking down one by one.
4. 330,000 Korean merchants + Alpenglow upgrade—ecosystem is improving, prices are falling
South Korean fintech giant KSNET has signed an MOU with the Solana Foundation to integrate Solana Pay across a network of 330,000 merchants, processing over $4 billion in monthly transactions. The Alpenglow upgrade will be rolled out in phases from August to October, aiming to reduce final transaction confirmation times from 12.8 seconds to 100-150 milliseconds, freeing up 75% of block space. The ecosystem is improving, prices are hitting new lows—the deviation has reached an extreme.
🧠 My judgment:
$72-73 is the last line of defense**—if it can't hold, target $69.50, $64, or even $60; if it holds, a rebound could target $76.50-$79. The collective silence of KOLs is itself a signal—at this position, no one dares to easily call a trade.
At $73 SOL, fundamentals are improving, ETFs are slowly flowing in, 330,000 merchants are about to join, and upgrades are coming—but prices are falling, whales are retreating, and everyone is going long. Deviations will eventually be fixed, but the direction depends on who will ultimately emerge victorious.
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Discuss in the comments: Will SOL break 70 first or return to 80? 👇
#SOL #Solana #ETF #Alpenglow #加密市场分析$SOL The way retail investors suffered the biggest blow in the cryptocurrency market wasn't by pulling the rug or an obvious scam, but by token unlocking—a massive influx of previously locked supply into the market, crushing prices and causing significant losses for unsuspecting buyers. This phenomenon is one of the most misunderstood and underestimated risks in the crypto ecosystem, with billions of dollars worth of tokens unlocked every month, creating sustained selling pressure that even overwhelms the fundamentals of the most promising projects. When most retail investors see a token trading at $0.20, they often think, "I'm here early," and buy in, believing they are standing at the starting point of a promising opportunity. However, what they fail to see is that the remaining 95% of supply remains locked and will enter the market in the coming months or even years. The gap between circulating supply and aggregate supply creates a situation where early investors and venture capital can systematically sell to retail investors, profiting at the expense of those who buy at seemingly attractive prices. Billions of dollars of tokens are unlocked across projects every month, creating a persistent oversupply that suppresses price performance. The cumulative effect is a continuous selling pressure that makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. Projects with aggressive vesting timelines and high supply locking ratios face particularly severe challenges, as the market must absorb newly unlocked tokens while maintaining or raising prices. The challenge becomes even more pronounced when unlocked tokens are sold by early-stage investors with a low cost base to realize profits. The impact of token unlocking is clearly visible in the performance of several well-known projects. ARB、OP、STRK、ZK、GRVT Yesterday's Long Review: Structural Recovery After Sharp Sell-Off
Yesterday, the focus of $SNDK GRVT long positions wasn't chasing a single listing news or just guessing the direction by relying on OI, but rather that after the market completed a round of concentrated selling in the early stages of listing, prices began to stabilize and recover key ranges, with liquidity catalysts on the exchange side appearing simultaneously.
From the market perspective, after GRVT was listed on July 30, it briefly reached $0.3056, then quickly dropped to $0.2246. This decline released the selling pressure from early buying, airdrop tokens, and capital to take over the IPO, and also cleared out a batch of leveraged long positions.
By July 31, the price did not continue to break lows; instead, it repeatedly changed hands between $0.239 and $0.25, then rebounded above $0.25, reaching an intraday high of $0.2926. Based on the intraday low, the rebound is about 22.4%.
This was the most important foundation for yesterday's bullish trade: the low did not continue to decline, and the market regained acceptance above $0.25.
The core of the long position: $0.25 was lost and recovered
Yesterday's truly comfortable entry was not at $0.29, but after the price pulled back to $0.239 to $0.25, it failed to break below and regained the $0.25 level.
For newly listed tokens, the first sharp drop is not uncommon. What is truly worth watching is whether, after selling pressure is released, the price can form new support at low levels.
The structure of GRVT yesterday can roughly be divided into four zones:
* $0.224 to $0.239: The deep discount zone after listing, also the location of the first round of liquidity cleanup.
* $0.249 to $0.261: A range where the structure has strengthened again; only after stabilizing will there be more reasonable conditions for trying to buy long.
* $0.272 to $0.281: Bullish acceleration zone, suitable for position observation, not suitable for heavy positions after a rapid rally.
* $0.286 to $0.293: Yesterday's high supply zone, where early shares and short-term profit-taking are likely to be realized.
The price encountered significant selling pressure near $0.2926, then retreated to around $0.26, proving that chasing long positions at high levels is much less cost-effective than entering after recovering from lows.
Yesterday's trading logic was clear: it was structural recovery after a sharp sell-off at listing, not a bet on the price moving directly from $0.29 into the second main rally.
OI can confirm direction, but it cannot replace the board
The OI section needs to be explained more rigorously.
Currently, there is no reliable hourly data to accurately reconstruct yesterday's changes in GRVT's OI, so it is not possible to directly conclude how much OI has increased or attribute the entire rise to new leveraged funds.
What is confirmed is that there was already a certain degree of contract participation and liquidation activity in the market yesterday, indicating that this market was not entirely driven by spot prices. However, OI is more suitable as a confirmation signal in this trade rather than as the initial reason for opening a position.
If prices rise and OI increases during trading, it indicates new capital entering the market to drive growth, indicating a relatively healthy bullish structure; If prices rise but OI continues to decline, it may mainly come from short covering. A rebound is still possible, but continuity needs to be assessed conservatively.
What is even more concerning is that although the OI rose rapidly, the price has consistently failed to break through the $0.286 to $0.293 range. This usually means leveraged long positions are starting to crowd, and the spot selling pressure above hasn't been truly absorbed. Once prices weaken, it easily leads to concentrated liquidation by bulls.
Therefore, the more complete long condition for yesterday should be: the price recovers to $0.25, continues to support after a pullback, OI does not shrink significantly, and funding rates remain within an acceptable range.
Price structure ranks first, and OI is only responsible for increasing the win rate.
Token listings and liquidity catalysts amplified the recovery rally
Yesterday, GRVT also served as a catalyst on the exchange side.
These reports alone may not be enough to support sustained gains. After new coins are listed on more exchanges, increased selling pressure may arise due to increased circulation channels.
But when the catalyst occurs when prices stop breaking new lows and low-level chips start to change hands, the significance changes. The addition of trading portals, KRW trading pairs, and trading activities will prompt the market to reassess short-term liquidity and price discovery efficiency.
On-chain holdings also show that a significant proportion of GRVT's liquid tokens are concentrated in exchanges, cross-chain bridges, and liquidity pools. The dominant force in short-term pricing is therefore more focused on exchange depth, market-making capital, and new trading demand, rather than buying in a single wallet.
Yesterday's rally was essentially a result of structural recovery at low levels combined with liquidity catalysts, with both working together to significantly accelerate the rebound.
Failure conditions
Yesterday you could go long, but that doesn't mean every position is worth continuing to be long.
The most direct breakdown for this trade is $0.25. If the price falls back below this range and fails to recover for a long time, it would mean yesterday's structural breakout may only be a brief short squeeze.
If it falls below $0.239 further, the second pullback low formed on July 31 will also be breached, basically ending the short-term bullish logic.
On the upper side, attention should be paid between 0.286 and 0.293 USD. If the price fails to break through after multiple volume tests, it means early shares continue to use liquidity to sell off. Even if OI rises at this point, it may not necessarily be bullish; instead, it may indicate that buying long positions is becoming more concentrated.
Several risks to watch out for include:
* Price fell below $0.25, failed to reclaim the structure yesterday;
* Broke below $0.239, breaking the intraday low and support zone;
* OI rises rapidly, but prices remain stuck in high supply zones;
* Funding rates are overheated, raising both the cost of long positions and liquidation risks;
* The exchange generates new liquidity as export sell-offs, not new buying orders. Tesla's investors face a valuation issue that cannot be ignored: if its China business is spun off and valued independently, what will the company's true independent value be? This question strikes at the core of Tesla's current valuation and challenges many assumptions that drive its stock price to its current level. This scenario raises serious questions about whether the market is pricing companies based on current business operations or on future ambitions and expectations that may or may not be realized. Tesla's current valuation reflects a complex interplay of factors, including its position as a global leader in electric vehicles, technological advantages in battery production and autonomous driving, and ambitious expansion plans spanning multiple markets. However, this valuation implies a hypothesis: Tesla's business in China will continue to drive significant growth and profitability. China has long been one of Tesla's biggest growth engines, providing manufacturing efficiency, export capabilities, and access to the world's largest electric vehicle market. If the China business were separated from Tesla's operations, leaving only the core company and its two aging models, the final valuation landscape would be completely different. The remaining companies will mainly rely on the North American and European markets, where competition is intensifying and growth rates are slowing. Although the aging Model 3 and Model Y remain popular, they face increasingly fierce competition from attractive alternatives offered by traditional automakers and new entrants. How the market will value Tesla after divesting its China business is not a hypothesis, but touches on the company's investment arguments$SOL
Latest real-time data: current price around $72.9, recently showing a slow pullback, a slight 24-hour drop of 0.83%, 24-hour turnover $1.26 billion, RSI indicator low and weak zone, clear selling pressure above $77-78, but fortunately, there is temporary buying support near $72.
The downturn was mainly due to a cooling overall risk appetite, rising long-term bond yields draining altcoin liquidity, and the fading meme coin craze, which led to a month-on-month decline in on-chain DEX fee revenue. In the short term, there was a lack of strong positive news to drive the rebound; However, the fundamentals are not bad. In Q2, RWA tokenized trading volume surged 114% quarter-on-quarter, spot ETFs continued to see net inflows, with the staking rate at two-thirds, and the long-term ecosystem foundation still in place.
My personal style remains cautious. I won't rush to buy the dip and try for a short-term rebound. I'll observe whether the $72 support can hold and if there are signs of liquidity recovery before making further moves. I still trust that the market will gradually recover and rebound. These represent only personal views and do not constitute investment advice. $CL Tensions in the Middle East have boosted risk aversion, with crude oil and gold strengthening in the short term. $XAU Geopolitical conflicts will once again raise inflation expectations, suppressing the Fed's room to cut rates, and putting pressure on technology, chips, and crypto assets. Currently, this is a short-term speculation driven by news, with high volatility and weak sustainability. Do not chase the rising crude oil; the technology sector should patiently observe and focus on risk aversion and keeping a focus on watching more and moving less. #特朗普称对伊失去信心, Preparing for Another Strike Trump publicly stated he had lost confidence in Iran negotiations, and market rumors spread that the U.S. was preparing a new round of military strikes, causing geopolitical risks in the Middle East to flare up sharply. The first reaction of capital was to pour into crude oil for safe havens, causing oil prices to surge rapidly. But this news hides a dual logic of the game: if the conflict escalates, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz faces a risk of disruption, and rising energy prices will further drive up inflation expectations. The rebound in inflation means the Fed will find it difficult to cut rates easily, directly suppressing high-valuation sectors such as tech and storage stocks in the U.S. market. $MU $SKHYNIX $NVDA $SAMSUNG $SNDK Risk asset trends will diverge significantly: crude oil and gold are likely to benefit from short-term risk-off sentiment; Growth assets like Bitcoin, US chip stocks, and Tesla are under increasing pressure. $BTC $TSLA Two key scenarios are distinguished: only verbal deterrence, where after a rally, the market is likely to cash in and pull back; If a substantial air raid is implemented, global market volatility will intensify, and intraday spikes and volatility will sharply amplify. Geopolitical news speculation moves quickly and reverses quickly; don't blindly chase news rallies🚨 Everyone is chasing the next 100x token…
But the biggest winners are often the projects that quietly keep building while everyone else is distracted. 👀
That's exactly why $OKB deserves a closer look.
Despite ongoing market volatility and constant liquidity rotation, $OKB has continued to hold firm around the $86 level, showing the kind of resilience that usually reflects steady investor confidence—not hype.
And the story goes beyond the chart.
✅ Controlled token supply
🔥 Ongoing buyback and burn program
🌐 Growing utility across the OKX ecosystem and X Layer
📈 A long-term strategy focused on sustainable growth
History shows that when fresh liquidity enters the market, capital doesn't flow evenly. It often moves first into assets with strong fundamentals, real utility, and disciplined tokenomics.
That's what makes $OKB stand out.
While much of the market is focused on short-term narratives, OKB continues strengthening its ecosystem and expanding its utility—quietly positioning itself for the next stage of the digital asset cycle.
Sometimes, the strongest opportunities are the ones making the least noise.
#TetherQ2Profit1.5B #MSFT450BInADay $BTC $ETH $SNDK
#DailyOrbit 💀 Bitcoin falls below 63,000! Nearly 100,000 people will be liquidated at 360 million yuan. Should we hit 66,000 or 59,000 before the end of the month?
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The first trading day of August was met with a "black start." BTC is currently quoted at $62,972, down about 2.73% in 24 hours, continuing to fall above the July 31 high of 65,000, with an intraday low of 62,458. The Fear and Greed Index is 27, still in the "fear" range. BTC has dropped more than 28% year-to-date.
📊 Four sets of data reveal the truth:
1. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September soars to 82%
In July, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 9:3, with three officials voting to raise rates. CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate hike in September has soared to about 82%. Trump ordered a new round of attacks on Iran, Brent crude neared $90.5, further strengthening inflation expectations. Under the dual pressures of geopolitics + inflation, risk assets were the first to be sold off.
2. ETFs: 172 million yuan inflows in July, but only a drop in the bucket
In July, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $172.4 million, ending two consecutive months of outflows. However, on July 31, there was a single-day net outflow of $265.4 million, marking the largest single-day outflow since July 13. Year-to-date, the cumulative net outflow is $5.29 billion. BlackRock IBIT alone holds the line, with limited demand for other products—the "robbing Peter to pay Paul" pattern remains unchanged.
3. Whales accumulating shares vs. miners selling
Whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC accumulated about 40,100 BTC (about $2.6 billion) in nine days from July 23 to the end of the month. However, listed mining companies sold off over 32,000 BTC in Q1, exceeding the total for all of 2025. On the supply side, bulls and bears are fiercely contested.
4. Liquidation Nuclear Bomb: One on each side
If BTC breaks through $66,134, the cumulative short liquidation strength of mainstream CEXs will reach $1.382 billion; if it falls below $59,959, the long liquidation strength will reach $1.138 billion. In the past 24 hours, $362 million was liquidated across the network, with over 90,000 people forcibly liquidated.
🧠 My judgment:
Technically, BTC opened up downside after being blocked by the key resistance at 66,300, with short-term support at 62,500-62,400, and a further break targeting 60,800-58,300.
The bigger problem is: the fear index is 27, but ETFs have seen net inflows for two consecutive days (latest day +233 million)—sentiment and capital are fighting. The total market capitalization of stablecoins has been shrinking continuously, but off-exchange "dry gunpowder" has not increased.
62,900 BTC, the Federal Reserve's blade hangs overhead, whales quietly take over, retail investors panic and flee—who will be the first to lose their grip?
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Discuss in the comments: Before the end of the month, should BTC first touch 66K or break 59.9K? 👇
#BTC #比特币 #美联储 #ETF #加密市场分析 $BTC The trading environment in August is one of the most challenging and nuanced tactical scenarios faced by crypto traders in recent years. The market has entered a period of thin liquidity, potential for extreme volatility, and heavy reliance on Federal Reserve data. The question of whether to sell at high prices or buy on dips is becoming increasingly complex. The answer depends on careful analysis of multiple factors, including interest rate expectations, technical levels, and the calendar of economic data releases that will shape market sentiment throughout the month. The fundamental question for August is whether the Fed will raise rates in September or maintain its current policy stance. This decision will shape the price trajectories of Bitcoin and Ethereum this month more than any other factor. BTC and ETH rely on liquidity rather than cash flow, making them exceptionally sensitive to changes in monetary policy expectations. Therefore, the core of the August trading strategy should revolve around trading Fed data and policy expectations, rather than getting caught up in narrative or hype. The current market conditions provide a clear starting point for tactical planning. As of August 1, Bitcoin was trading near $62,900, Ethereum around $1,865, both recording declines of about 2.7%. These levels reflect ongoing uncertainty about the direction of monetary policy and the impact of various economic data points on Fed decisions. Bitcoin's two consecutive quarters of negative closes are historically significant, previously only occurring in 2014, 2019, and 2022. The results of the third quarter will be crucial to the medium-term trend, as history shows that the direction set by Q3 often sets the tone for subsequent periods. The market's technical structure reveals a narrow range that has lasted eight weeks, with Bitcoin stuck at 60.0The relationship between Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market once again irrefutably demonstrates the influence of the value anchor, with BTC's price fluctuations triggering chain reactions throughout the crypto ecosystem. BTC's recent 1.67% drop sharply reminds us of the hierarchy in the digital asset market—the trends of leading cryptocurrencies determine the trajectory of nearly all other assets. This value anchor effect is often discussed in theory, but is especially painful during downturns, as altcoins experience amplified volatility, reflecting their higher beta for market leaders. The latest transaction data provides strong evidence for this. Although SHIB recorded a 5.13% increase, this performance resembles a social outlier driven by social dynamics rather than a fundamental shift in asset fundamentals. SHIB's rise reflects the so-called "meme-driven liquidity"—capital inflows are not due to improved fundamentals, but because others expect others to be buying in as well. This behavior is typical of late-cycle markets, where investors chase momentum without fully considering fundamental evidence. In stark contrast to SHIB's rise was Loopring's 6.24% drop, a harsh reminder of Bitcoin's value anchor's gravity. The magnitude of LRC's decline relative to BTC's volatility indicates altcoins' leveraged exposure to the movements of leading cryptocurrencies. This amplifying effect means that even mild BTC fluctuations can trigger huge losses in illiquid or weaker investor bases among altcoins. Amplification of BTC volatility across the altcoin market is a fundamental feature of the cryptocurrency market8.1 Some views on interest rate hikes, rate cuts, and Walsh's remarks
Bitcoin/Ethereum has been relatively quiet recently, and under such conditions, impatience will lead to severe losses. We have been reminding everyone to hold firmly. Although the overall volatility is not large, there is still good room for growth. Zhou Wei is generally trading sideways, and opportunities favor those who are prepared. Given the current market situation, today we'll talk about something else, like some differences between Powell and Walsh during their tenures. First, I increasingly feel that Wash is like Trump's dog. At first, he emphasized hawkishness, rate hikes, and anti-inflation, but then he kept stalling. With inflation persistently high, he looked at the data that followed. After one look, he had to look at even more data, then he started working with investigators, and the investigation lasted for months, finally stalling for more time.
What Trump wants now is to buy time, since with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, as long as interest rates are not raised, it would be good for him. There's a saying: if the enemy holds a neutral stance, they help you. Wash's statement is exactly that way now. Secondly, Powell has been very direct in whether raising or cutting rates, and his statements are very direct: whatever needs to be done and no rate hikes to inflation, he remains hawkish when necessary. In contrast, after Walsh's speech, you don't even know what he meant. The key is that he made his position clear from the start and didn't provide forward-looking guidance in subsequent speeches, which was clearly playing tricks from the start.
It's estimated that Walsh will continue to evade responsibility, focusing mainly on data. The investigative committee will need results by year-end, and by then, the midterm elections will be over, so whether or not interest rates are raised won't matter. Additionally, this may also be a decision given by the current state of the U.S. After all, recent rate hikes have just ended, and there has been initial rate cuts. If they raise rates again now, it would be unfavorable for both of them and would only delay the process. $ZAMA 狗庄开始分发代币，两个集群老鼠仓在同一时间依旧收到代币了，其中一个已经在高位出了，其余集群地址也在出货了！$BTC ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 reports, Iranian Army spokesperson Akraminia made a major statement: Iran has recently deployed new drones with a range covering all US military bases in the Middle East, and more equipment details will be disclosed in the coming days. The core focus is on Iran's stance: based on historical experience, Iran anticipates the risk of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding being unilaterally torn up, and the possibility of conflict restarting remains. Geopolitical signals analyzed in two layers 1. Short-term sentiment impact: A warning of renewed tensions in the Middle East. If conflicts escalate again, the market will enter a typical risk-off logic: crude oil and gold will strengthen; risk assets will come under pressure first, and BTC and ETH are prone to short-term panic selling pressure. Recently, global liquidity has been relatively thin, making the market easily driven to amplified volatility by sudden news, increasing the risk of two-way spikes. 2. Medium to long-term variables: Currently, both sides are in a stage of verbal deterrence, with no new large-scale fighting started yet. Only if there are direct attacks on US military bases or substantial actions like restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will it evolve into sustained market shocks; pure verbal warnings mostly only bring short-term pulse volatility and rarely lead to sustained one-sided moves. Reference to the current market situation BTC is currently stuck in the 62,000–63,600 dense chip range, with significant long-short divergence. If the Middle East conflict continues to ferment, focus on the 62,000 support defense strength; if support breaks, panic sentiment may accelerate release. Conversely, if the conflict remains verbal posturingGeopolitical tensions continue to ferment! Behind the surge in crude oil lies an insurmountable ceiling
The market is always repeating two extreme voices: geopolitical tensions, with the entire internet loudly calling for a new all-time high; As the situation eased, the bearish outlook immediately returned to low levels of consolidation.
The vast majority of traders focus only on news chasing rises and sell-offs, ignoring the core truth: pure geopolitical conflicts can only create impulse market moves. To break historical highs, one must meet the resonance of supply and demand, liquidity, capacity, and risk premium. The current market does not have complete conditions; the new high is an extreme scenario, not a benchmark market.
1. First, clarify the key standards
Brent crude oil hit a historic high near $147. To hold firm and break new highs, you can't just look at single-day spikes; you must achieve a valid breakout on the weekly chart.
In the short term, a push to 100 or $110 is considered an upward trend within the trend; To truly challenge the all-time high, market trading requires "sustained supply disruptions" rather than short-term sentiment speculation.
2. Four Major Bullish Conditions Supporting Oil Prices to Reach New Highs (Without One, Sustained Bull Trend Is Unlikely)
1. An epic upgrade in Middle Eastern geopolitics has cut off core shipping corridors
The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 30% of the world's crude oil shipping by sea. If the conflict escalates and oil tanker navigation is restricted, global crude oil circulation will face a huge gap.
Current conflict characteristics: All parties deliberately avoid full-scale war, resulting in limited standoff. Under the premise of controllable conflicts, there is a ceiling in geopolitical premiums, making it difficult to continuously push prices to challenge historical highs.
2. OPEC+ maintains strong production cuts, with no internal disagreements over production increases
OPEC+ idle capacity continues to shrink, with buffer space shrinking ever since. Saudi Arabia's fiscal balance keeps oil prices high, and subjectively, they do not want prices to fall deeply.
Risk risks: If oil prices continue to rise, high oil prices will stimulate internal production disagreements among member countries and accelerate the rebound in U.S. shale oil capital expenditures, creating a supply hedging gap.
3. Global crude oil demand remains resilient, with no global recession
The historic $147 bull market is driven by sustained surge in demand from emerging economies.
Currently, the environment is clearly differentiated: economic slowdown in Europe and the US, demand peaking; Incremental growth relies solely on emerging markets such as China and India, with demand growth far weaker than during the 2008 supercycle. If global manufacturing continues to weaken, high oil prices will further suppress consumption, creating a negative feedback loop.
4. The US dollar continues to weaken, and the liquidity environment is relaxed
Crude oil is priced in US dollars, and a strong dollar naturally suppresses commodity valuations. If the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle and the dollar enters a downward channel, it will provide sustained upward momentum for crude oil valuations.
Conversely, prolonged high U.S. Treasury yields will continue to constrain the upside of commodities.
3. Four Major Hardcore Obstacles Suppressing Crude Oil to Record Highs in the Medium and Long-Term Term (Key Points Across the Internet)
1. The energy structure is changing, making it difficult to replicate the 2008 demand supercycle
The continued penetration of electric vehicles and the expansion of new energy have long suppressed the growth rate of crude oil demand. Although chemical oil supply provides support, it cannot replicate the explosive demand brought by the wave of industrialization back then. Simply put: without super growth on the demand side, it's hard to create a super bull market.
2. High oil prices bring self-destructive mechanisms
After oil prices consistently break through $120, a chain reaction will occur:
(1) Suppressing global consumption, forcing refineries to reduce operating capacity;
(2) Stimulate increased production in non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana;
(3) Countries release strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize prices.
History has repeatedly proven that high oil prices are the best way to bear the market.
3. Although the global inventory buffer is low, it has not been exhausted
OECD inventories are at multi-year lows, with lower margin for error, and even minor supply disturbances amplify volatility; However, countries still have room to release strategic reserves, and in extreme market conditions, crude oil can be released to suppress prices. There is no absolute shortage pattern without buffers.
4. Macroinflation constraints limit unlimited price increases in oil prices
Crude oil is the core barometer of inflation. The continued surge in oil prices will once again drive up global inflation, forcing central banks around the world to maintain high interest rates. High interest rates ultimately suppress economic and commodity demand, creating a ceiling for upward growth.The relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and cryptocurrency prices has long been a hot topic among market participants, with recent price action providing valuable clues about this complex dynamic. Between July 29 and 31, a peculiar divergence occurred that defies conventional understanding: although the yen strengthened against the dollar and the dollar index was generally weak, Bitcoin and Ethereum both performed weakly and did not rise as traditionally implied. This counterintuitive price behavior requires careful analysis, as it reveals the subtle nuances of the crypto market's response to macro factors. The traditional narrative holds that a weaker dollar should benefit cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as their appeal as alternative stores of value increases; Similarly, a stronger yen may ease the selling pressure on carry trades and Japanese retail investors. However, the actual movement during the observation period has deviated from these expectations, with BTC and ETH still weakening under favorable exchange rate conditions. This disconnect is even more pronounced when compared to traditional risk assets. On Friday, after the observation period ended, the S&P 500 rose 0.7% and the Nasdaq gained 1%, reflecting continued strength in U.S. stocks. Traditional markets performed positively, combined with a weaker dollar, which theoretically should support cryptocurrencies. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain stubbornly weak, indicating that other factors have a greater impact on prices. Interest rates cannot be ignored in this equation. During the observation period, interest rates moved in a direction unfavorable to the "immediate liquidity chain," meaning financing costs and borrowing conditions became unfavorable for speculative positions. This interest rate change may offset the potential positive effects of a stronger exchange rate and stock market. The interplay between interest rates, exchange rates, and risk assets is intricateUS yen support is a weak BTC and ETH bull case so far. Across the July 29 to July 31 closes, the yen strengthened and the broad dollar softened, yet crypto weakened while rates moved against the instant-liquidity chain. Friday sharpened the mismatch: the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and Nasdaq gained 1% while crypto stayed soft. The mismatched close and rate clocks keep causality loose, but the observed transmission is still lousy. BTC and ETH remain exposed to relative weakness even beside a softer dollar and firm US equities.
#AMZNMissesButRallies US yen support is a weak BTC and ETH bull case so far. Across the July 29 to July 31 closes, the yen strengthened and the broad dollar softened, yet crypto weakened while rates moved against the instant-liquidity chain. Friday sharpened the mismatch: the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and Nasdaq gained 1% while crypto stayed so#30YYieldAt19YHigh ft. The mismatched close and rate clocks keep causality loose, but the observed transmission is still lousy. BTC and ETH remain exposed to relative weakness even beside a softer dollar and firm US equities.#AMZNMissesButRallies The cryptocurrency market is witnessing the beginning of a historically explosive bull market. In this cycle, Bitcoin officially broke below the 200-week moving average for the first time—a technical indicator that has always been a reliable signal at the cycle bottom throughout Bitcoin's brief and turbulent history. This is not just a technical breakthrough, but also a psychological milestone, keeping market participants closely watching the next moves. Reviewing historical data, the pattern is clear. Each time Bitcoin falls below the 200-week moving average, a cycle low is formed and a new round of gains is launched. During the 2014–2015 cycle, Bitcoin bottomed around $200 and then climbed to nearly $20,000; The 2018–2019 cycle bottomed near $3,200, followed by a rebound in 2019, which ultimately drove the 2020–2021 bull market to a historic high above $69,000; The most recent 2022 bear market bottom was around $15,500, also occurring after breaking below this moving average. The significance of this technological form cannot be underestimated. The 200-week moving average represents an average price of about four years, spanning multiple market cycles and reflecting the long-term value center. When the price falls below this level, it means the asset is below the long-term average, historically creating excellent buying opportunities for patient investors. Market psychology is equally crucial—fear and capitulation often peak when this line is broken, providing perfect conditions for a reversal. What makes this round special is its macro background. Previously, Bitcoin was still establishing its asset status, but now we have institutions passing ETFsIn the closing bell of the U.S. stock market on Friday, Apple Inc. delivered revenue results that exceeded expectations, yet its stock price plunged over 7% amid guidance of doubled inventory and declining gross margin.
$AAPL fell 7.1% in a single day, dragging the Nasdaq index lower, while risk assets such as the crypto market also showed signs of liquidity tightening over the weekend.
The AI hardware race has caused extreme increases in upstream memory costs, coupled with quarter-end inventory soaring from $5.7 billion to $11.1 billion, sparking market concerns about passive compression of tech giants' profit margins.
The revaluation of profit margins in U.S. tech stocks is indirectly suppressing risk appetite in sensitive markets like gold and crypto assets through fluctuations in the risk-free interest rate.
If next quarter's iPhone upgrade demand can smoothly absorb the doubled inventory and maintain gross margins above 48%, the U.S. tech sector will stabilize again; however, if the dollar index unexpectedly strengthens, this recovery path will fail.
If supply chain costs such as memory continue to fail to be passed on, causing gross margins to fall further below 47%, capital may accelerate flowing into safe-haven assets unless the Federal Reserve issues a clear rate cut signal to offset liquidity pressure.
Current market concerns about the "AI tax" eroding hardware profits will be completely disproven when the supply chain price index shows a turning point.
In the next seven days, the key observation will be the direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield's volatility during the adjustment of U.S. tech stocks.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #Tether季度盈利15亿，黄金增至146吨 1/6 Why do investors often expect August to be weak?
Because, historically, it often has been.
Some argue it's just a myth, pointing to data stretching back over 200 years to show positiveAugust returns.
But those gains rely heavily on 19th-century market history.
Today's markets are driven by global capital, technology, and institutional flows—not the seasonal patterns of the 1800s.
Bitcoin & Stock Market Seasonality 🧵As of press time, according to real-time data from OKX, $LAT has risen 24.47% in the day, with a trading volume of 0.8B, leading today's market. This volume level has been in the top 15% over the past 30 trading days, indicating that capital participation is not inflated. Looking at the 4-hour chart, $LAT started from $0.0082, consecutively breaking through the previous resistance levels of 0.0090 and 0.0095, currently quoted at $0.0102. The MACD fast and slow lines formed a double golden cross above the zero axis, with eight consecutive histograms enlarging, showing no signs of weakening bullish momentum. The RSI indicator is at 72.3, entering the overbought zone without a bearish divergence. In this state, prices often have room for inertia to surge. The moving average system shows a standard bullish alignment. After crossing above MA100.0089 at 50.0094, the market accelerates and diverges, with short-term support moving up to $0.0096. The macroeconomic aspect is the decisive variable this week. If Wednesday's U.S. CPI data falls short of the expected 3.2%, it will directly suppress the US dollar index, which is positive for dollar-denominated crypto assets. However, caution is warranted for another scenario: if CPI rebounds above 3.4%, combined with Friday's nonfarm payrolls exceeding 180,000, market expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates in June will intensify. $LAT These high-beta tokens are extremely sensitive to liquidity expectations; historically, when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuates more than 15 basis points in a single week, their price amplitude amplifies by an average of 2.3 times. Currently, the 4-hour Bollinger Band opening angle is 38 degrees, with the bandwidth expanding from 0.0012 to 0.0018, indicating rising volatility and resonating with the macro event window. The movements of ORDI and DUCK are also worth cross-verification. $ORDI Up 14.14% but only 0.0B in turnover, showing a clear volume-price divergence. This volume rally is technically weak, and the probability of subsequent pullbacks is high. Meanwhile, $DUCK's 0.8B volume matches the 13.69% gain fairly well, but its daily RSI has stayed above 75 for three consecutive days, indicating a more severe overbought level than $LAT. From the perspective of capital rotation, the simultaneous rally of three tokens often occurs during periods of rising market risk appetite. However, if CPI data is unexpected, the first to pull back are inevitably stocks with insufficient volume. On the trading side, $LAT's 4-hour support level coincides with the 0.0096 USD MA5 and Fibonacci retracement at 0.382. If the pullback does not break this level, it can be considered a healthy turnover. The upper target is $0.0112, corresponding to the lower boundary of the previously high densely traded zone. However, it must be clarified that the risk of divergence between the current RSI and price action is accumulating. If tomorrow's opening price falls below $0.0094, the short-term bullish logic will fail. In the 30 minutes before the release of macro data, it is recommended to observe changes in futures funding rates. If the positive rate exceeds 0.05% and continues to rise, it indicates excessive long leverage, so caution should be taken against insertion of the market. For image selection, one chart marking key support levels and the MACD golden cross best illustrates the issue, while another financial data terminal screenshot visually compares the volume-price relationships among the three tokens. The essence of technical analysis is a game of probability. This week's CPI and nonfarm payroll data will determine whether the market continues to rebound or tests the bottom again. Before the data is released, any directional bet lacks sufficient margin of safety. Maintaining position flexibility and waiting for clear macro signals before making decisions is more important than predicting short-term price fluctuations. The above analysis is based on current technical conditions and does not constitute investment advice.