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I've been watching SanDisk$SNDK's bullish candle all day today.
It closed at $1,279.96, surging 25.99% in a single day. Micron rose 18%, Western Digital 15%, SK Hynix 17%. The entire sector is moving, but SanDisk is the fiercest.
I already had a clear idea when I saw Microsoft's earnings report before the market opened. Azure revenue increased 43%, capital expenditure increased 70%, and free cash flow expectations turned positive. Previously, the market was most worried about AI burning cash and dragging down cash flow, but this statement immediately dispelled those concerns.
But I didn't expect SanDisk to play so hard. Looking back, it makes sense.
It had fallen the hardest before. From $1,915 on July 10 to $1,015 on July 29, a 47% drop in less than three weeks. I also had long positions on SanDisk at the time, and I stuck through it all the way, with the biggest unrealized loss approaching 40%. After extreme overselling, the bounce is naturally the fiercest.
But don't let this bullish candlestick cloud your judgment. SanDisk's July stock price has still fallen 45%, down 46% from its all-time high of $2,354. I reduced some positions today—not because I'm pessimistic, but because the trapped positions are too heavy at the top. A single bullish candlestick cannot change the trend; it can only alter sentiment.
At this level, do you feel the bottom is confirmed, or do you think this is just a violent rebound amid a sharp decline? I personally lean toward the latter, so I'll look at the backlash first. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks Strategy released its Q2 earnings report last night, and the numbers are a bit alarming.
Net loss of $8.22 billion, mainly due to falling Bitcoin prices and book losses from positions valued at market value. As of July 26, the company held 843,775 BTC, accounting for nearly 4% of the total supply on the entire network. The average cost of holding is $75,476. Holdings grew 11% in the first quarter, achieving a 4.5% BTC yield year-to-date and a gain of about 29,997 BTC.
But there's a signal more worth watching than the losses themselves—they haven't bought Bitcoin for over five weeks. The previous "always buy, buy, buy" model has stopped. Instead, cash reserves increased by $525 million, spending $25 million to repurchase discounted preferred shares. mNAV has long since fallen below 1, and the cycle of buying coins through premium financing has ended. The shift from "always buying" to "stopping and waiting and watching" is more worth thinking about than the loss figures themselves. The biggest bulls are resting, losing a clear buyer, so the market has to find its own direction. $BTC On July 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $32.11 million, ending a four-day streak of net outflows.
Over the past four days, about $526 million was outflowed.
The scale of inflow was not large, but the direction had changed, at least indicating that someone had started to cautiously return.
Throughout July, Bitcoin ETFs only saw about $205 million to $220 million in — the worst month since these products launched in January 2024. But compared to the 2.43 billion yuan outflow in May and the 4.52 billion yuan outflow in June, the direction is indeed shifting. Bitcoin's price rose about 10% in July, but ETF inflows actually hit a historic low—indicating that this rally was not driven by ETF buying. Some people buy, but the buyers didn't come in through ETFs.
The short-term direction remains unclear. Tomorrow is the monthly moving average. If the 64,000-65,000 level can be held at the close, at least there will be some hope for the start of August. If it closes below 63,500, it may continue to hold on next week. Before the direction is set, don't overweight your positions; wait for next week's CPI data to show direction.
$BTC 🚨 Long Liquidation Alert | $ATOM
🔴 $ATOM recorded a $9.61K long liquidation at $1.25, forcing leveraged bullish positions to close as price moved lower.
The liquidation event added short-term selling pressure and highlights the importance of monitoring key support levels during periods of increased volatility.
📊 The next move depends on whether buyers step in to defend this zone. A strong rebound could stabilize momentum, while continued liquidations may increase the risk of further downside.
⚠️ Stay patient, manage your risk, and watch price action closely before making trading decisions.
#SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
I am Cige. Amazon delivered an earnings report that silenced the market. Q2 revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year. AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37%, marking the fastest growth since the end of 2021. Operating profit was $16.6 billion, with a profit margin of 39.4%. Full-year capital expenditure was raised to $220 billion. Q3 revenue guidance is $197 billion to $202 billion, below market expectations. According to Meta's script, this should have caused a drop, but after-hours trading saw a surge of over 9%. The market is telling you with real money that as long as cloud growth continues to accelerate, burning cash can be accounted for and won't be punished.
Microsoft's realization, Meta's promises, and Amazon's simultaneous spending and earning—three AI stories with three different valuations. Microsoft's Azure growth of 43% earned an 8.5% increase, Meta's free cash flow hit a four-year low and dropped 7%, while Amazon's AWS growth of 37% plus $220 billion in capital expenditure led to a 9% rise. The market is telling you the difference lies in the return cycle. Amazon's cloud business is already generating continuous cash flow with a 39.4% profit margin; capital expenditure is reinvestment, not burning money. Meta's AI commercialization path is still unclear, so the market demands it spend less.
The impact on BTC is twofold. In the short term, Amazon's earnings beating expectations alleviates AI investment anxiety, tech stock sentiment recovers, and BTC benefits in sync. Amazon's $220 billion capital expenditure continues to point to AI infrastructure expansion; the fundamentals of storage and semiconductor demand remain intact. The short squeeze rebound of SanDisk and SK Hynix fits this logic. In the medium term, accelerated AI cloud business means computing power demand is continuously exploding; the long-term rigid demand for HBM, NAND, and data centers is being repeatedly validated. BTC's underlying narrative of computing power economics will only get stronger, not weaker.
If BTC can hold above 64,300 and break out with volume, the next target is the short squeeze zone between 65,400 and 66,000. Cige has finished speaking; savor it. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Paris-based stablecoin issuer Kulipa has shut down, just four months after announcing a $6.2 million seed funding round.
About 20 wallets and crypto companies used it to provide U cards, including cards issued by Ready and Solflare, but overnight, all of them stopped. After its April funding round, Twitter was basically quiet, then suddenly shut down.
What really makes this news worth remembering is the latter half: the funds on these U cards are self-custodial, only withdrawn when swiped, and there is no customer balance in Kulipa. So users didn't directly lose money, just that the card became unusable.
Using the same U card, who holds the funds determines whether the money will hurt or cause serious damage when something happens. When choosing this type of card in the future, I will first look at three things:
1. Confirm that funds are self-custody, and the balance is not in the card merchant's hands
2. Card merchants suddenly become silent or operate abnormally after financing; deactivate the system first and then observe the situation
3. Don't put your core funds into a single issuer's card
Card issuers can go bankrupt, but the asset structure of self-custody is the bottom line.Amazon surged after hours due to clear returns on AI capital expenditures, but macro inflation risks and the stripping out of one-time non-operating gains are becoming the core contradictions limiting the sustained spread of risk appetite in tech stocks.
$AMZN rose more than 9% after hours, mainly driven by AWS revenue reaching $42.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 36.7%, temporarily easing market concerns about the slowdown in cloud business growth. However, the company's free cash flow over the past 12 months has shifted from a positive $18.2 billion to a negative $7.6 billion, indicating that high AI capital expenditures are still exerting substantial pressure on cash flow.
Among the current market pricing drivers, the primary factor is the improved visibility of AI investment returns, followed by changes in macro inflation expectations, and finally institutional position replenishment. Amazon's disclosure of an investment payback period of less than 3 years and server contracts locked in for over 5 years has prompted funds to flow back from panic-driven safe havens into leading tech assets.
To establish a sustained rebound trend in tech stocks, the upside scenario requires two conditions: oil prices falling due to eased geopolitical tensions to reduce upward inflation pressure in July, and AWS's AI business annualized revenue continuously exceeding $25 billion to prove that computing power demand can translate into actual profits. In this scenario, market risk appetite will further spread to semiconductors and crypto assets, with attention on whether the Nasdaq can hold above previous highs.
Conversely, the downside scenario is triggered if the US-Iran conflict continues to push oil prices higher, causing core PCE inflation expectations to rise and thereby limiting the Federal Reserve's liquidity release space. At the same time, if the market begins to strip out the $53.4 billion one-time non-operating gain from Anthropic included in Amazon's net profit this quarter, the real pressure on operating profit will be exposed, leading to a renewed outflow of previously replenished positions.
The failure signals of the above scenario include a cliff-like drop in US consumer spending or a stagnation in the annualized recurring revenue growth of large model companies like OpenAI. This would directly overturn the assumption of "strong AI demand and clear return cycles," and regardless of macro liquidity changes, the valuation re-rating of tech stocks would face interruption.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are the extent to which the US-Iran situation pushes up global oil prices and the market's pricing changes in inflation expectations ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting.
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 News hype is something that is a mix of truth and falsehood, reality and illusion. Denying the spin-off of China is normal, but the merger has not been denied, and it can test the attitudes of China and the US, using falsehood to convey truth, attract attention, and draw traffic.
The Shanghai Gigafactory is Tesla's largest and most efficient factory globally, with an annual capacity of 950,000 vehicles, historically accounting for more than half of global deliveries, and Q2 exports still up by +32.8%. If the China business is truly spun off, it would be a huge negative for Tesla overall. $SPCX 🚨PCE turned negative month-on-month, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%—is the market about to change?
Data released last night is quietly changing the trading logic of global capital.
📉 PCE turning negative month-on-month means inflationary pressures continue to cool;
📉 GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, indicating that the U.S. economy is starting to slow down significantly.
Many people's first reaction is: "The economy is worsening, is it going to fall?" ”
But capital markets often trade the future.
If inflation continues to fall and the economy is only moderately slowing, expectations for Fed rate cuts will further heat up, and liquidity may be released again.
What does this mean for U.S. stocks?
If rate cut expectations continue to ferment, AI, chips, and technology growth stocks are most likely to benefit first.
The market may return to a phase of "valuation expansion," with core tech stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta still expected to be the top choice for capital.
Of course, if employment data continues to deteriorate, the market may shift from a "soft landing" to a "recession trade," causing significant short-term volatility.
What does this mean for the crypto world?
For BTC, ETH, and the entire crypto market, liquidity is the true engine.
When dollar liquidity improves and the dollar index weakens, risk assets usually face a correction.
Therefore, this set of data is positive for the crypto market in the medium to long term.
But what truly determines the height of the rally is whether the Fed will send clearer signals of rate cuts in September.
The most important thing to watch now is not how much it rises today, but whether global capital is starting to return to risk assets.
If this macro turning point is truly confirmed, the opportunities in the second half of 2026 may only be beginning. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% $SNDK $BTC $CORE Breaking the CORE team narrative formula: front-end contributors ≠ anonymous behind-the-scenes founders and developers
$CORE
Within various communities, there has long been a highly confusing set of promotional scripts: bringing up publicly appeared figures like Rich Rines and Brendon Sedo, disguising them as project founders, and combining them with the narrative of "Bitcoin pedigree, decentralized DAO" to boost credibility.
But the vast majority of people deliberately concealed the most crucial fact: the initial development team that built the Satoshi Plus consensus, wrote the underlying core source code, and initiated the CoreDAO project remained anonymous throughout the process, never revealing their true identities.
1. Clarifying Personnel Identity: Front desk spokesperson ≠ Founders at the bottom of the ranks
Many people confuse a core concept: publicly recognized contributors are merely the project front office operations, business, and media windows, not the founding team with control over the underlying code.
1. Rich Rines: Chief Technology Spokesperson for External Affairs, former Coinbase engineer, officially positioned only as an early contributor, not as a project initiator;
2. Brendon Sedo: Principal Head of External Business, coordinates ecosystem funds, exchange collaborations, and offline presentations;
3. CJ Reim and Lindsey Haswell: Responsible for DAO governance and legal supervision affairs, respectively.
These individuals have impressive resumes and frequent participation in interviews and global business events, serving as the project's deliberate "face" for the public.
Github code commit records show that a very small number of anonymous addresses have completed the vast majority of underlying protocol development; This group of core personnel has no real names, no public social profiles, and no participation in public interviews; they are the true behind-the-scenes group with grassroots authority.
The entire project has about 45–50 full-time contributors worldwide, distributed worldwide, handling daily development and operations, but core decision-making power is concentrated in an anonymous group.
2. Key Analysis: CORE anonymous development cannot be compared to Bitcoin anonymous
A common saying from the hype is: Bitcoin is anonymous, and CORE is following Bitcoin's example, which is very reasonable. There is a huge logical flaw here.
1. In Bitcoin's early days, there was no token reserved by the team, no linear unlocking, and no foundation treasury chips to keep selling;
2. CORE has hundreds of millions of controllable tokens in team shares, treasury, and ecosystem reserves, which are continuously unlocked on a cycle, providing long-term monetization incentives;
3. Bitcoin anonymity is a historical coincidence; CORE is a core development company that has proactively chosen to remain invisible in a mature crypto regulatory environment.
The risks are obvious: once major issues such as contract loopholes, concentrated dumping of large chips, sudden changes in governance rules, or misappropriation of funds occur, ordinary holders cannot trace the actual controlling entity behind the scenes, leaving almost no way to defend their rights. Front desk business staff can handle external public relations but do not bear ultimate responsibility.
3. "Fully decentralized DAO" is just marketing narrative
The project continues to promote Core DAO decentralized autonomy, but there is a clear gap in reality:
High-weight matters such as token release models, treasury fund transfer rules, network upgrades, and core parameter adjustments are only considered suggestive by the community, with ultimate control still held by anonymous core developers and the foundation's internal circles.
Ordinary community participants find it difficult to shake major decisions and fall far short of true decentralization standards. Decentralization is a promotional label, not the current governance status.
4. Core rumors that have circulated for years are debunked together
❌ Rumor 1: Core DAO = Bitcoin Core, a branch of the official Bitcoin team
✅ Fact: The two are independent, with only similar names. Bitcoin Core is responsible for maintaining the Bitcoin mainnet and has no cooperation or affiliation with CoreDAO. The official team has even specifically distinguished that the community deliberately bundles and creates fake Bitcoin endorsements.
❌ Rumor 2: Satoshi Nakamoto, an early Bitcoin developer, participated in the CORE project
✅ Fact: There is no on-chain proof, official announcement, or credible interview to support this; this story is purely fabricated by domestic communities to attract newcomers.
❌ Rumor 3: Leading leading VCs are heavily investing in CORE early positions
✅ Fact: The project has no traditional ICO or early private placement; initial funds come from testnet airdrops for mining; There is no early large-scale investment by a well-known large venture capital firm, and related rumors lack evidence.
5. Summary of the entire set of publicity tactics
1. Frequently appear as a front-office team with impressive resumes, shaping the impression of a legitimate major company project;
2. Deliberately blurring the line between "contributors" and "founders," guiding the public to see front desk speakers as behind-the-scenes leaders;
3. Selectively avoid anonymous core development, undisclosed early developer chip lists, and long-term unlocking selling pressure;
4. Borrowing Bitcoin's name, anonymity concept, and decentralized narrative to create a falsely secure and orthodox project impression.
💡 Objective reminder
Business visits, offline events, technical sharing, and impressive team resumes can all be continuously packaged; Anonymous developers, massive assets that can be monetized long-term, and limited community governance rights are underlying hard risks that cannot be concealed.
Don't rely on team stories or endorsements as your basis for holding positions; distinguish between front-end promoters and anonymous behind-the-scenes developers to see the essence of the entire narrative.
Speculation in virtual currency trading is an illegal financial activity, and funds are not protected by law. This article is based solely on publicly available information and objectively reviews the information, and does not constitute any investment adviceA three-minute summary of the crypto market
$BTC $ETH
1. Core Industry News
1. Institutional trading share reaches a record high: In the first half of 2026, institutional trading volume accounted for 72% of cryptocurrency OTC trading, setting a new record. A large number of Wall Street institutions have entered the market, effectively calming market fluctuations and making the market trend more stable.
2. South Korea's crypto tax policy implemented: Starting January 1, 2027, a cryptocurrency income tax policy will be implemented. For individuals with annual crypto profits exceeding $1,740 (2.5 million KRW), a 22% tax will be imposed, with no plans for extension.
3. DeFi Project Optimization and Reshuffling: Mainstream DeFi protocol Aave has launched ecosystem streamlining, phasing out 50 low-usage asset reserves in phases, while terminating deployments on multiple public chains such as Sonic, Scroll, and zkSync, purifying inefficient ecosystem assets.
2. 24-hour market trends for mainstream coins
Mainstream coins across the board saw slight gains, with market sentiment on the warmth side of the market:
• BNB: Up 4.0%, quoted at $591.23, leading the mainstream coin
• SOL: Up 2.1%, quoted at $74.66
• ETH: Up 1.4%, quoted at $1919.08
• BTC: Up 1.2%, quoted at $64,736 On July 30, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) dropped a data bomb—the June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly negative growth since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Six years have passed. The beast of inflation, which has been raging since 2021, has finally "starved" at the data level. I know what you're going to say—"Only 0.1%, how big can it be?" But market trading has never been about magnitude, it's direction. Another set of data released on the same day makes this story even more intriguing. Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of 1.5%, not only lower than Q1's 2.1% but also below market expectations of 2.1%. Has growth slowed? On the surface, yes. But BEA also released a key indicator—domestic private final sales (excluding net exports, inventory, and government spending) grew 3.9% in Q2, doubling from 1.7% growth in Q1 and the highest since early 2023. To translate: consumer spending is booming, and corporate investment is tough. GDP growth fell short of expectations because the trade deficit widened—importing large amounts of AI servers and semiconductor equipment. This isn't economic failure, but the US is desperately building AI infrastructure. CICC's report also points out that high import growth essentially reflects the expansion of domestic corporate capital spending and the stocking needs of the AI industry chain. Strong consumption + falling inflation = the Fed's most desired "soft landing" scenario. 1. PCE turning negative: Is it a turning point or a disturbance? Let's break down the data first. JuneA recent liquidation notice from Goldman Sachs has once again put Strategy in the spotlight. The structured bonds linked to Strategy stock, maturing on July 29, will only return about $217 per $1000 invested, a loss of nearly 80%. The issue lies in an implicit clause: if MSTR's closing price falls below 20% under the starting price threshold, holders must bear the full loss starting from the initial price of $421.74. Even worse, the bond's initial total face value was only $660,000, and the documents did not disclose how much principal remained unpaid at maturity, meaning the total loss cannot even be accurately calculated. If Goldman Sachs' bonds are a disaster for investors, then Satsuma is a collapse example of the entire treasury model. This UK-listed Bitcoin treasury company had shareholders approve with over 90% votes to liquidate all 668 BTC and delist. Its average Bitcoin purchase price exceeded $113,000, while Bitcoin traded below $68,000 in July. Its stock price fell from a high of £14 in 2025 to about 21 pence, a drop of over 99%. Pantera Capital also holds about 6% of the company’s shares and publicly pressured to sell the Bitcoin and return cash. Then there are companies that never even got started: BSTR, led by Adam Back, originally planned to list via SPAC merger with about 30,000 BTC. But in early July, the original deal terms were canceled, the private placement voided, and investors redeemed their shares and withdrew. The entire industryDon't just focus on Bitcoin—this wave in the storage sector isn't a rebound—it's a revaluation!
Have you seen Google's financial report?
Cloud revenue +82%, Capex continues to be raised.
The market suddenly realized — AI infrastructure isn't just about buying GPUs; everything behind is storage.
Behind the GPU is HBM,
Servers require DRAM,
Training requires enterprise-grade SSDs,
All models and logs must be stored long-term.
Storage is no longer just about the consumption cycle of phones and PCs,
Now is the AI infrastructure cycle.
What is the reason for the recent rise of Micron, SK Hynix, and WDC?
It's not sentiment—it's global data centers repricing.
Of course, if prices rise too sharply, you need to stay calm.
Keep a close eye on three numbers behind:
HBM supply and demand, DRAM contract prices, cloud manufacturer Capex.
As long as this thread is intact, storage is not a short-term story.
Comment section: How far do you think this wave can go? ETFs finally stopped bleeding, Santander entered the market, Strategy kept buying more and more as it lost, the Clarity Act was still stalled, and Stacks launched Bitcoin staking
Take a look at this daily position report, and break down several key signals:
(1) Bitcoin ETFs have finally stopped bleeding
On July 29, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $32.1 million, ending a four-day streak of capital outflows totaling over $500 million. BlackRock's IBIT raised $89.8 million in a single day, but Fidelity outflowed $43.1 million and Ark outflowed $14.6 million. BlackRock's own money filled the pit where others fled. ETFs as a whole haven't returned to a consensus bullish outlook yet; it's just BlackRock itself buying them.
(2) Santander disclosed Bitcoin ETF holdings for the first time
Spain's Santander Bank disclosed for the first time in its 13F filing that it holds 129,615 shares of IBIT, valued at about $4.31 million, and also holds $350,000 worth of Ethereum ETFs. Although this is $4.3 million—only 0.05% of Santander's $16 billion US stock holdings—this is the first time a major European bank has disclosed its Bitcoin ETF holdings. The symbolic significance outweighs the actual amount: the trend of traditional financial institutions leveraging ETFs to invest in digital assets continues, though the scale remains small.
(3) Cardone Capital buys Bitcoin with rental income
Grant Cardone's real estate company increased its holdings by 10.5 BTC using July rental income, bringing its total holdings to over 2,700 BTC valued at over $171 million. They convert their rental cash flow into Bitcoin every month, regardless of the price, aiming for 3,000 coins by 2026 and 10,000 coins in the long term. This is a true dollar-cost averaging player—continuously buying with cash flow, not looking at prices.
(4) Strategy: Lost 8.2 billion, but still buying
Strategy's Q2 net loss was $8.22 billion, mainly due to impairment losses caused by Bitcoin's price decline. However, the position actually increased by 25% from the beginning of the year to 843,775 BTC. The average cost is about $75,476, while BTC is now priced at 64k, resulting in a paper unrealized loss of about $9 billion. The more it falls, the more you buy; the more you buy, the more you lose; the more you lose, the more you buy. Whether this path is right depends on whether you believe Bitcoin will rise over the long term.
(5) The Clarity Act is still in the loop
The Senate has not yet scheduled a vote, and controversy over the morality clause is the main obstacle. Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of passing by 2026 from 50% to 30%. Treasury Secretary Becent is pressing, but the Democrats are still stalling. If the recess is delayed until August, it will have to wait until autumn, and the window for passage within the year will become increasingly narrow.
(6) Stacks has developed Bitcoin staking
The PoX-5 hard fork has been activated at Bitcoin block 960230, with the core function being Bitcoin Bonds—users can earn BTC yield by locking Bitcoin, without the need for cross-chain bridges, no custody, and private keys are in their own hands. The initial capacity is 3,000 BTC, with a yield of about 3%. If this narrative can turn BTC into an interest-bearing asset without losing control, it would complement the logic of long-term Bitcoin holding.
Overall judgment
ETF liquidity is stabilizing, and signals of institutional entry (Santander) and sustained buying (Strategy, Cardone) are real. However, the delay of the Clarity Act and the backdrop of three Fed officials supporting rate hikes mean the market will not rally in the short term. Bitcoin staking on Stacks is a new narrative, but the initial capacity of 3,000 BTC is still too small.$MU Micron closed today at $874.66.
It rose 18.36% in a single day.
Opened at 793, lowest at 789, highest at 882.
After hours, it continued to push up to around 895.
The storage sector collectively surged.
SanDisk rose 26%, SK Hynix 17%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded over 8%.
The core catalyst is Microsoft's earnings report, with a significant increase in capital expenditure and a positive free cash flow forecast.
Samsung simultaneously warned of supply shortages until 2028, and Micron, as a core HBM supplier, directly benefits.
Micron fell from the July 9 high of 1035 to the July 29 low of 737, a 28% drop in three weeks.
Today's bullish candle is a rebound from extreme oversold conditions.
There is a clear divergence in capital flows.
Smart money is withdrawing from SanDisk and Hynix, concentrating on Micron.
Micron's net long position increased by about $2.5 million today, with long opening volume up 90% compared to yesterday.
Open interest increased by 8.5%, while SanDisk's decreased by 24.8%.
Among the top 10 largest holders, 53% of Micron positions are long, while 82% of SanDisk positions are short.
Retail investors set the largest net sell record since the pandemic on Tuesday, cutting losses at the lowest point again.
Technically, 874 is still some distance from the previous platform of 900-920, with a dense resistance zone at 990-1011.
Short-term rebounds have momentum, but a full recovery in one go is unrealistic.
The mid-term storage cycle logic remains unchanged, HBM demand is still climbing, but the chip structure needs time to repair.
Among the three storage companies, Micron's long position structure is relatively the cleanest.
At this point, do you choose to get in directly, or wait for a pullback to confirm support before acting? "DataHunter Crypto Research Report"· July 31, 2026
Understanding the market with data
📊 1. Market Panorama
BTC is currently trading near 64,800 USDT, up about 1.5%-1.8% in 24 hours. At 5:08 this morning, it dropped to $63,269 but then continued to rise. OKX market data shows BTC has broken through 65,000 USDT. ETH is quoted at 1,918 USDT, up about 1.2% in 24 hours, reaching a high of $1,937.
Panic and Greed Index: Around 30 (fear), slightly rebounding from previous days but still in the fear range.
In the past 24 hours, there were about $147 million in net liquidations, of which short positions were $92.3 million, accounting for 62.7% of the total liquidation—meaning a large number of short positions were washed out during the rebound. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.21 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $62.1 billion.
Mainstream coins rose across the board: SOL rose 1.78%, XRP rose 1.47%, DOGE gained 0.80%. UNI led the top 100 coins with a 12.14% increase.
📍 2. Market trends
BTC continued to recover and rebound from around 62,700 yesterday, holding above the 4-hour Bollinger middle band (64,140), with short-term bulls taking the lead. Currently, prices are approaching the upper Bollinger band (65,194) resistance zone—65,200 is a key short-term watershed. A valid breakout would open further upside, while resistance could lead to a pullback to the middle band seeking support.
Key locations:
· Resistance above: 65,200 (upper Bollinger band), 65,580 (previous high area), 67,712 (a breakout would trigger 1.071 billion short liquidations)
· Support below: 64,140 (Bollinger middle band), 63,660-63,630, 61,524 (a break would trigger liquidations of 1.325 billion positions)
🔍 3. Rebound Drivers: Short Liquidation + ETF Inflow + FOMC Implementation
First, concentrated short liquidation triggers short squeezes. In the past 24 hours, there were $92.3 million in short liquidations, with shorts being heavily liquidated. This is not a trending rally, but rather a rebound driven by short sellers forced to close positions—derivatives trading volume fell 15.48% month-on-month, indicating that new leverage did not follow up on a large scale.
Second, Bitcoin ETFs ended a four-day losing streak. On July 29, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $32.11 million, ending a four-day outflow streak. BlackRock IBIT saw a single-day inflow of $89.83 million, offsetting a $43.08 million outflow from Fidelity's FBTC. Ethereum ETFs have seen continuous outflows.
Third, sentiment recovery after the FOMC's "no rate hike" policy was implemented. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 9:3, and after briefly digesting hawkish signals, risk appetite has somewhat recovered. But three opposing votes mean that expectations for a rate hike in September have not faded.
📌 4. Macro and Events
FTX compensation begins today. On July 31, FTX's fifth round of creditor compensation officially began, involving about $900 million. Historically, a significant portion of FTX's compensation funds have flowed back into the crypto market, which may provide short-term buying support.
Geopolitical risks remain. The Iranian attack pushed oil prices higher, but BTC remained above $64,000 despite the sharp rise in oil prices and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, demonstrating some resilience.
📝 5. Operating Framework
The current rebound is driven by short liquidations rather than a trend reversal—the shrinking derivatives trading volume indicates that new capital has not entered the market in large numbers.
· Above 65,200: If volume breaks above the upper Bollinger band, light positions can follow, targeting 65,500-66,000
· Pullback near 64,140: If stabilized, consider low long positions with stop-loss below 63,800
· Above 65,500-65,800: If volume shrinks and prices stagnate, bulls may take partial profits
· Breaking below 64,000: The rebound structure may be broken, so wait and see for the main approach
Key observations: Tonight's US stock market movement, whether FTX compensation funds will flow into the market, and the breakout above 65,200.
Risk Warning: This article is a research note and does not constitute investment advice.
DataHunter | Understanding the market with dataSamsung rose 20%, SK Hynix rose 24%—today's rebound was explosive enough. But the perspective of well-known trader Ouyang Zhuaibai is clearly not focused on today's gains. He said something worth pondering: just a few weeks have passed, and the fundamentals of storage haven't changed dramatically, yet the stock price has dropped by half. This is the momentum of negative deleveraging, driven by a consistent bullish view across all trading levels. A few weeks ago, Korean media were still hyping up the "golden age of Seoul," with university students being called to trade tech stocks, retail investors flocking to Samsung and SK Hynix, leveraging to the limit and pushing sentiment to the extreme. Then the market turned downward. It's not that the fundamentals have changed; it's that everyone is already in the car, and there's no new money left to take over. The end of a unified bullish stamp is a unanimous stamp. What was Ouyang Zhuobai doing? Between about $122 and $94, intensively place stepwise buy orders for SK Hynix ADRs without stop-loss and buy spot positions. He called it "the biggest deal opportunity of the year." It's not going all-in, but a stepwise acquisition. It's not a leveraged bet, but a gradual build with low positions. This is not someone chasing a rebound, but someone waiting for an opportunity. Is today's rebound a bear covering or a trend reversal? The answer isn't in this bullish candlestick, but in the rhythm of leverage recovery. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $SOXS #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but stock price rebounded 9% #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, causing a sharp drop in the stock price and sparking two controversies #苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours
📊 Apple's Q3 performance was explosive, but it plunged 6% in after-hours trading! What is the market afraid of?
In the early hours of this morning Beijing time, Apple released its financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. The data is impressive:
📊 Core Data:
Indicators and data year-on-year
Revenue $109.4 billion +16%
Net profit $29.79 billion +27%
EPS $2.02 +29%
iPhone revenue $54.25 billion, +22%
Mac revenue $10.35 billion, +29%
Gross margin 50.1%, surpassing 50% for the first time
iPhone, Mac, and Greater China all hit record highs for the same period. This was Cook's last financial report during his tenure, delivering an impressive report card.
However, after hours, the stock price fell 6%, wiping out over $300 billion in market value.
💡 Why did good performance actually fall?
The market is not afraid of the present, but the next three quarters.
1️⃣ Q4 guidance fell short of expectations
Apple expects Q4 revenue growth to be only 9%-11%, below the market expectation of 12.1%. The gross margin guidance was cut directly from 50.1% this quarter to 47%-48%, a drop of 2-3 percentage points.
2️⃣ AI is eating up Apple's supply chain
The four major cloud providers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) have combined capital expenditures of $725 billion this year, a year-on-year surge of 77%, all competing for AI chips and storage.
What about Apple? Capital expenditure over nine months was only $6.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 28%.
Apple does not build AI data centers, but cannot avoid the cost transmission of AI infrastructure:
· TSMC's advanced process: N3 capacity sold 100% out, with 60% taken by AI chip customers
· DRAM prices surge: surged over 90% in the first quarter of this year, with a full-year expected increase of 250%-280%.
Cook described the storage price surge as a "once-in-a-century flood." Storage costs in the June quarter were already higher than in March, and prices are expected to continue rising in the September quarter.
3️⃣ Supply restrictions are spreading
Cook said that supply restrictions in the June quarter were mainly concentrated on Macs, but will spread to iPhones and iPads in September. The stocking, pricing, and delivery cycles of the new iPhone will all be affected.
Apple had already "reluctantly" raised the prices of several Mac and iPad models in June. If costs continue to rise, the iPhone may also have to increase in price.
📊 What does this mean for the crypto market?
Explanation of the impact path
🔴 Short-term risk: Apple is the largest heavyweight on Nasdaq; a 6% drop would drag down the tech sector, and the crypto market may follow suit with a 1-2% decline.
🟢 Mid-term opportunity: Traditional tech stocks are being squeezed in valuation by AI, and some funds may flow into the crypto market in search of alternatives
🟡 Tokenized US Stock Stocks: Apple (XAAPL) has tokenized US stocks on OKX, with fluctuations directly reflected in pre- and after-hours trading
⚠️ Three variables to focus on in August:
1️⃣ DRAM contract price trends (determining whether Apple's costs can stabilize)
2️⃣ TSMC's Advanced Process Capacity Allocation (AI vs. Consumer Electronics)
3️⃣ Can Changxin Memory enter Apple's DRAM supply chain (Chinese manufacturers entering may ease supply pressure)
💬 Let's talk in the comments:
1️⃣ Apple falls 6%; will the crypto market follow the drop tonight?
2️⃣ Do you hold tokenized Apple (XAAPL)?
Share your judgment in the comments! 👇
$SNDK $SKHYNIX - Short-term first resistance: 1430‑1460, the first hurdle for the rebound;
- Strong resistance: 1570‑1610, only if volume increases and holds here can the rebound structure be considered open. There is a large amount of trapped positions piled up above, creating heavy selling pressure; a volume-less surge is very likely to fall back.
- Short-term defensive support: 1120‑1140;
- Strong support: 995‑1020, the low platform of this round; if the contract breaks below 1020 with volume, it means this rebound is over and the bottom-seeking trend will restart.
Driving logic
1. The core anchor is US stock SanDisk: the contract itself has no independent fundamentals; the rise and fall are rooted in US stocks SNDK, the storage sector (Micron, Seagate), and the Nasdaq trend; Microsoft's earnings report drove semiconductor sector sentiment, triggering this rebound, not due to any major sudden positive news from the company.
2. Macro Fed: No rate hike in July, but the tone is hawkish, keeping the option for a September hike. High-valuation storage growth stocks are very sensitive to interest rates; rising US Treasury yields will suppress stock prices.
3. Contract market factors:
- After a sharp drop, there is huge divergence between bulls and bears, with high open interest; each big rise and fall is accompanied by massive liquidations, with short-term trading mainly driven by sentiment.
- A large amount of high-level trapped positions above means that as the rebound moves up, the selling pressure from position unwinding continuously increases.
4. Industry fundamentals: AI enterprise SSD is a mid-to-long-term logic, but the stock price has already fully priced in optimistic expectations; future focus will be on flash memory prices and next quarter's earnings data.
Three scenario simulations
1. Baseline scenario (highest probability): 1020‑1460 large range oscillation and tug-of-war. After an oversold rebound, trapped positions are digested, waiting for new US stock news and sector sentiment catalysts, with the contract repeatedly stabbing stop losses.
2. Bullish scenario: Volume increases and holds above 1610, rebound continues, targeting around 1800; without volume support, a surge should not be chased as it is easily a bull trap leading to a drop.
3. Bearish scenario: Effectively breaks below 1020, rebound ends, continuing to seek a bottom downward.
Contract trading reminders (key points)
1. Do not hold heavy positions during US stock market holidays or weekends: liquidity is poor, making abnormal spikes likely to directly hit stop losses and trigger forced liquidation.
2. Do not hold positions stubbornly for a long time: keep watching funding rates, as long positions will incur continuous fees.
3. Do not chase big surges with large bullish candles: this is a repair rebound after a big drop, not a new main upward wave; chasing highs is very likely to get trapped at rebound highs. $SNDK SanDisk closed today at $1,279.96.
It surged 25.99% in a single day.
During the session, it hit a low of 1124 and a high of 1285.
The amplitude was close to 16%, with a trading volume of 23.61 million shares and a turnover rate of 16%.
After the close, it continued to climb, currently quoted around 1340.
The entire storage sector is in a collective uprising.
Micron rose 18%, SK Hynix rose 17%, and Western Digital gained 15%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 8% in a single day.
The core catalyst comes from Microsoft's financial report.
Capital expenditure increased by 70% year-on-year, and management clearly stated that free cash flow for the new fiscal year is positive.
This statement directly dispelled market concerns that AI burning money would drag down cash flow.
Samsung is also stepping in in the same way, stating that the memory chip shortage will continue at least until next year.
But don't forget, SanDisk fell from $1,915 on July 10 to $1,015 on July 29.
In less than three weeks, it was nearly halved.
Yesterday, it even crashed to 998 during trading.
Today's big bullish candlestick is essentially a violent rebound after extreme overselling, not a trend reversal.
On the liquidity side, retail investors net sold $213 million in storage stocks on Tuesday, with SanDisk accounting for the vast majority.
Ironically, retail investors are cutting their losses the most, while institutions are buying at low levels.
SanDisk liquidations in the futures market exceeded $20 million, and short covering also helped boost the gains.
Technically, 1285 is close to the resistance level of 1278 on July 27.
Above, 1436 and 1610 are densely packed trapped positions.
Short-term rebounds still have momentum, but the profit-loss ratio for chasing higher prices is not ideal.
The medium-term storage cycle logic remains unchanged, and expectations for the peak season in Q4 remain intact.
But whether the chips have truly been cleared depends on whether it can hold the previous low during pullbacks.
At this level, are you willing to wait for a pullback for confirmation, or to bet on a direct V-shaped reversal? #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks $CORE Recently, I've started seeing narratives about core project teams doing "on-site business in Africa, offline brick farming, mining implementation."
This pitch sounds practical and easily leads people to think the project team has left the office and is now truly expanding their offline business. But the problem is, offline visits, group photos, and business meetings do not guarantee business implementation; The launch of the business does not necessarily mean the token price will start a major upward trend.
The core reason is simple:
1. Offline customer acquisition in Africa cannot solve the problem of core product delays
CORE initially hyped up narratives like BTCFi, lstBTC, and SatPay.
But up to now, truly impressive large-scale applications, merchant access, institutional funding, and on-chain revenue are still not enough to support a major rally.
Offline business in Africa is essentially more like adding new promotional material, not a breakthrough in core products.
2. The threshold for offline narrative verification is high, making it difficult for retail investors to judge genuine conversions
The African market is indeed suitable for telling stories of "emerging markets, inclusive finance, and offline implementation."
But these narratives share a common trait: easy to take photos, easy to make itineraries, and hard to verify results.
It's hard to judge how many real users, merchant revenue, or on-chain fees a single group photo, a meeting, or a visit can actually bring.
3. The selling pressure issue remains unresolved
The key to the long-term pressure on the CORE market is not the lack of a new story, but the lack of sustained incremental capital support.
Team unlocks, ecosystem reserves, miners/node monetization pressures, and long-term inflation are the real factors suppressing the main rally.
Without continuous inflow of new off-market funds, relying solely on the "African mining" narrative is difficult to truly reverse the supply-demand structure.
4. The narrative has been repeatedly pre-drawn
From Bitcoin grids, dual staking, BTCFi, to now offline expansion in Africa, CORE's promotional materials have actually been repackaged.
The market doesn't ignore stories, but after seeing too much, aesthetic fatigue can occur.
Every rebound requires new capital to take over; without real data to keep up, the market can easily become a short-term pulse.
5. Actual implementation depends on on-chain data, not trip photos
To determine whether CORE has truly entered the main upward wave, don't look at where the project team has gone; look at these factors:
- Whether TVL continues to rise
- Whether protocol revenue continues to grow
- Whether the number of new active addresses has truly increased
- Whether the large unlock selling pressure has been absorbed
- Whether core products like lstBTC and SatPay are truly advancing
- Whether the trading volume comes from real funds rather than quantitative inversion
To sum up:
Doing business offline in Africa isn't necessarily a bad thing.
But whether it can drive the price depends not on whether it goes to Africa, but whether it converts into real business, real income, and real buying.[Pharaoh Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, so why did it still rise after hours?
Pharaoh bluntly said the market has long passed the "data-focused" phase; now it's about "who admits mistake first." Amazon is the first to back down, and the market directly rewards it.
What exactly happened?
The financial report was actually not bad. Revenue reached $158.9 billion, beating expectations at $156.6 billion, and AWS growth returned above 30%. But what really excited the market wasn't the numbers, but the art of "expectation management" in capital expenditure. The market had already prepared itself to spend $200 billion on AI this year, but Amazon said, "You're overthinking it, we're more restrained than you think." As soon as these words were spoken, the market took off after the market closed.
Why is the price rising so fiercely?
Microsoft was the first to back down, effectively reducing its capital expenditure from $190 billion to $175 billion, with an after-hours increase of 8.5%. Amazon quickly followed suit, lowering its capital expenditure guidance for next year from the market expectation of $200 billion to $160 billion. The market's favorite narrative now is "capital expenditure growth slowing and cash flow improving"—whoever delivers this answer card first will rise first.
What does this mean for the big pie?
Amazon's statement further confirms the trend of tech stocks shifting from a "cash-burning race" to a "cash-collecting model." As a liquidity-sensitive asset, Bitcoin can catch its breath if it follows the Nasdaq's sentiment in the short term. But in the medium term, if more companies start cutting capital expenditures, market confidence in AI cools down, which could drag down the overall valuation of tech stocks, and Bitcoin will not escape.
Pharaoh still said, good orders are waited for, not chased.
Follow Pharaoh and never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $SOL #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, but stock price rebounds by 9% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours
Apple's financial report,
Apple's financial report is very good, and the company is profitable,
But there is a major problem: old-fashioned stocks with a single profit model.
When it comes to safe havens, it's a very good safe haven, but when risk appetite rises, these stocks are abandoned.
Given its current situation, Apple doesn't fit in because it hasn't made significant investments in AI, nor does it develop large models or AI hardware.
This leaves capital with no illusions—it's just a straightforward old ox.
At a time when many companies are desperately trying to expand into new fields and move on multiple legs, what Apple lacks is a pioneering spirit reminiscent of the Jobs era.
Currently, a 40x PE ratio isn't exactly cheap, and without the expectations of highly profitable AI, this price may need to be repriced.
The market's attitude toward Apple reveals a problem: this round of AI adjustments has reached a temporary stage, and market risk appetite is rising.🚨 Strategy Has Updated Its Bitcoin Playbook
For years, Strategy's approach was simple: accumulate Bitcoin and never sell. That changed on June 29, when the company approved a framework that allows conditional Bitcoin sales for the first time.
The move appears to address a structural challenge rather than signal a shift in long-term conviction.
The key issue has been $MSTR 's mNAV—the ratio of its market value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings—which has remained below 1.0x for several months. Trading below asset value limits the company's ability to issue shares efficiently to fund additional $BTC purchases, reducing the effectiveness of its previous accumulation strategy.
To strengthen liquidity, Strategy introduced its Digital Credit Capital Framework, which includes:
• A $2.55B USD reserve
• A $1.25B Bitcoin monetization program with strictly defined conditions
• A $1B Digital Credit Securities repurchase program
• A $1B $MSTR share buyback authorization
• An increase in the $STRC dividend to 12%
Bitcoin sales are permitted only under specific circumstances:
- Building the USD reserve
- Covering preferred dividends and interest obligations
- Funding securities repurchases
This is not an open-ended selling plan, but a structured liquidity framework designed to improve financial flexibility.
The company's recent decision to raise $1.15B without purchasing additional $BTC suggests that preserving liquidity has become the immediate priority.
Markets responded positively, with $MSTR shares rising sharply, while $BTC saw only a brief rally before pulling back.
The strategy has evolved—from "never sell" to "sell only when necessary."
💬 Do you see this as prudent risk management, or a development that Bitcoin investors should watch closely?
#SoftPCEStrongDemand
#AMZNMissesButRallies Amazon surges after hours: The market has finally heard the answer AI capital expenditure has been waiting for
After reviewing the earnings reports from Google, Meta, and Microsoft, the market's stance is very clear: no one opposes tech giants continuing to spend on AI; the real concern is when these capital expenditures, often in the hundreds of billions, will start to pay off.
So yesterday we predicted that when it was Amazon's turn, management would know exactly what needed to be clarified. Simply telling the market "AI demand is strong" is no longer enough; investors want to hear about orders, contracts, payback periods, and how much profit these data centers can generate in the future.
Amazon indeed gave a direct answer to this question.
Management stated on the call that AI infrastructure investments typically recoup costs in less than three years; servers usually have a lifespan of five to six years, and most of the company's current AI computing power is already locked in with customer contracts of at least five years. The data centers themselves have a longer lifespan, exceeding 30 years, capable of supporting five to six generations of servers consecutively.
These statements may sound simple, but they are the most important information tonight.
Amazon wants to tell the market that it doesn't just build data centers and then wait for customers to come. Much of the computing power is secured by long-term contracts before the investment is made. Servers lasting five to six years with an average payback period of less than three years means that after recovering hardware costs, the remaining contract period can continue to generate revenue and profit. Even when this generation of servers is eventually retired, the data centers can continue to install the next generation of equipment without starting from scratch with every AI upgrade.
The market worries about uncontrolled capital expenditure, but Amazon's response is: this money is not being spent aimlessly; it is invested under the premise of existing demand, contracts, and calculable returns.
Of course, Amazon's current free cash flow does look unfavorable.
Over the past 12 months, operating cash flow grew 33% year-over-year to $161.4 billion; however, free cash flow dropped from a positive $18.2 billion a year ago to negative $7.6 billion. The most direct reason is the significant increase in investments in AI data centers, servers, and related infrastructure. Over the past 12 months, Amazon's net capital expenditure reached $169 billion, up $66.1 billion year-over-year.
Looking only at free cash flow, this is certainly a pressured report card. But when considering AWS's growth together, the picture changes.
In Q2, AWS revenue grew 36.7% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters; AWS operating profit reached $16.6 billion, with an operating margin of about 39%. This shows Amazon is not just seeing increased capital expenditure without corresponding revenue and profit. At least this quarter, AI investments are driving AWS to accelerate again, and profits are materializing faster than many expected.
Amazon also disclosed that AWS's AI and chip businesses each have annualized revenues exceeding $25 billion and continue to maintain triple-digit growth. Anthropic and OpenAI have committed to multi-year, multi-gigawatt usage of Trainium. Amazon's self-developed AI chips are no longer just a backup option outside of Nvidia but are beginning to handle real workloads for top-tier model companies.
Anthropic should not be overlooked here.
Amazon's net profit this quarter reached $62.6 billion, including $53.4 billion in pre-tax non-operating gains mainly from the book appreciation of its Anthropic investment. This portion obviously cannot be counted as recurring quarterly profit, but it at least proves that Amazon's early investment in Anthropic has already generated substantial financial value.
More importantly, what Amazon gains from Anthropic is not just equity appreciation.
Amazon invests in Anthropic, which in turn purchases training, inference, storage, and networking resources through AWS, while also helping Trainium enter the highest-level large model training scenarios.
This creates a virtuous cycle few companies can replicate. The faster Anthropic grows, the more valuable Amazon's equity becomes; the more computing power Anthropic needs, the higher AWS's revenue; the larger the workload Trainium handles, the less Amazon depends on Nvidia, and the greater the long-term profit potential of its cloud business.
Therefore, Amazon's after-hours rise of over 9% today is indeed helped by a market rebound after consecutive declines, but it should not be simply interpreted as following the broader market rally.
The real re-pricing by capital is that Amazon has finally clarified the accounting behind AI capital expenditure: demand exists, contracts are locked in, payback periods are shorter than server lifespans, and data centers can span multiple hardware generations.
Previously, the market saw free cash flow dragged down by AI investments; tonight, the market begins to see the other side—Amazon is using today's cash flow to build AWS revenue and AI infrastructure advantages for years to come.
This is also why US stock investment sites previously listed AMZN as a core winner entering the AI execution era. The real value lies not just in the willingness to spend, but in turning that spending into orders, profits, and long-term moats. Amazon is proving it has not only the ability to invest but also the ability to convert those investments into business.
$AMZN $META $GOOGL $AAPL $SNDK #美股"US Stock Market Closing Daily Report"
7/30 US Stock Daily: Has the AI rally really returned?
US stocks rebounded strongly on Thursday. The AI rally has not fully returned; the market is simply starting to reward companies that "can prove their investments are turning into profits," while continuing to punish companies with uncontrolled capital expenditures or insufficient profit realization.
First, Microsoft provided positive evidence of AI commercialization.
Microsoft's profits exceeded expectations, Azure cloud business remained strong, and the company did not continue to significantly raise AI spending forecasts like some competitors. Microsoft's stock price rose 15.5%, marking the largest single-day gain in nearly 18 years.
Second, the semiconductor sector saw a retaliatory rebound.
Micron rose 18.4%, Lam Research rose 18%, AMD rose 13%. These stocks had previously fallen continuously; earnings reports and Microsoft's AI demand validation triggered short covering.
However, this looks more like "oversold recovery + earnings validation" and does not yet prove that the chip sector has completed its adjustment.
Third, the market is still differentiating AI spending.
Meta fell 8% due to weak earnings and simultaneously raised its investment spending range. The market is forming a clear standard: spending money itself is no longer positive; only when revenue, profit, and cash flow grow simultaneously will massive AI capital expenditures be accepted.
After-hours earnings:
Apple's revenue grew 16% to $109.42 billion, net profit grew 27% to $29.79 billion, both exceeding market expectations, but the stock fell about 2.3% after hours. This indicates that Apple's prior gains were already substantial, and simply "exceeding expectations" is not enough to continue pushing up valuation.
Amazon AWS revenue grew 37%, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters, but the company raised its full-year capital expenditure plan from $200 billion to $220 billion. The market will continue to question whether cloud business growth can cover the increasing AI investments.
Yesterday's plunge and today's surge indicate that the US stock market is entering a phase of high volatility and strong differentiation, and it is not suitable to interpret a single-day rebound as a trend reversal.
The US stock rebound is positive for BTC, but BTC did not simultaneously break through $65,000, indicating that the capital strength in the crypto market is weaker than in tech stocks.
If the Nasdaq continues to rise while BTC remains sideways, caution is needed as funds may be prioritizing replenishing AI assets; only if BTC holds above $66,000 can it be confirmed that risk appetite has truly spread to the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price isn’t the most interesting thing happening right now. The real signal is hiding in the correlation chart. 👀
The relationship between $BTC and Nasdaq is changing.
When Bitcoin starts moving independently from equities, it usually points to one of two possibilities:
1️⃣ Crypto is being driven by its own internal demand and structural flows.
2️⃣ Traditional risk assets are attracting capital while digital assets are being left behind.
Right now, the first scenario is becoming more interesting.
With institutional products expanding and firms like Morgan Stanley moving deeper into crypto exposure through spot ETH and SOL ETPs, the digital asset market is gaining a stronger connection to traditional finance.
But there’s an important detail:
Not every crypto asset is benefiting equally.
BTC around $64K while ETH struggles to reclaim $2K tells a different story.
This is a split market.
Institutional interest is growing, but liquidity is still selective.
$SOL’s relative strength stands out.
The bigger question is no longer just:
"Is Bitcoin decoupling from stocks?"
The more important question is:
Has Ethereum started quietly decoupling from Bitcoin?
Because the next major rotation may not come from a broad crypto rally.
It may come from which assets can attract the next wave of institutional liquidity.
Follow the flow, not just the price.
Not financial advice.
#OKXOrbit $BTC $ETH $SOL
#DailyOrbit 😎 Mywell Technology ($MRVL) is currently priced at $194.6, in the oversold retracement phase after a 41% retracement from the June high of 329.88 (closed at 183.30 yesterday, +6.3% for the day). In the short term, it has recovered, but in the medium term, remains below the 20-day and 60-day averages of 209.34 and 227.87.
📊 Technical Position (USD)
Resistance (1): 198.7, Fibonacci R1 + round number, breaking out of intraday weak zone.
Resistance (2): 209.3, 20-day MA + Bollinger middle band coincides, strong resistance.
Resistance (3): 227.9, 60-day MA, breakout confirms medium-term strength.
Support (1): 188.9, a recent area with concentrated buying and intraday bullish support.
Support (2): 180.9, 5-day MA; a break would trigger a pullback to test the recent low at 175.15.
Support (3): 169.0, Fibonacci S1, only seen in extreme panic.
🚀 Positive
(1) AI ASIC + optical internet dual engines: Q1 data center revenue of 1.833 billion RMB, accounting for 76%, with FY27 optical interconnect growth forecast raised by over 70%.
(2) Next quarter guidance is a midpoint revenue of 2.7 billion (+35% year-on-year) and a midpoint of EPS of 0.93, fully exceeding expectations, with FY27 revenue expected to reach 11.5 billion.
(3) 42 institutions 86% buy, UBS at 340, KeyBanc at 400, custom chips tied to Amazon/Google TPU.
⚠️ Bearish
(1) GAAP EPS was only $0.039 (down 80% year-on-year), with a net margin of 1.43%, and the worsening profit margin scared off capital.
(2) TTM PE is about 67 times, stock price priced in perfect expectations, Morgan Stanley's neutral target price of 195 indicates limited upside.
(3) ASIC is highly dependent on the top ten customers (82%), and a single cloud vendor cutting orders triggers both valuation and performance losses.
📈 Performance guidance (FY2Q27, to be disclosed in late August)
Midpoint of revenue was $2.7 billion, ±5%, Non-GAAP EPS midpoint was $0.93, gross margin about 59%; FY27 full-year revenue was about $11.5 billion (+40%), and FY28 was about $16.5 billion (+45%). The next financial report is expected to disclose Q2 around August 27, 2026.
🏦 Wall Street target price
42 companies covered, with 86% buying/increasing holdings. The average price is about $268.15, the median is 256.91, with a maximum of 400 (KeyBanc) and a low of 180 (Goldman Sachs). The 194.6 price is about 38% upside from the average price, and is basically in place of the Morgan Stanley neutral target of 195.
💡 $MRVL Trading Perspective: 194.6 is stuck between the 188.9 support and 198.7 short-term resistance. Standing at 198.7, look for a rebound at 209; if 188.9 is lost, move toward 180. Before earnings reports, avoid chasing highs; use the 188.9 gain/loss as a short-term switch; in the long term, the AI ASIC + CXL logic remains unbroken, but high valuations + concentrated customers will cause significant drawdown wear. $XMRVL Here is a simple, clear market prediction post based on the **xAAPL/USDT** daily chart:
## 📈 **$xAAPL/USDT Price Prediction & Analysis**
### **1. Current Situation**
* **Current Price:** $313.56
* **Recent High:** $XAAPL 344.98
* **Recent Low:** $305.95
* **Summary:** The price took a heavy drop (a large red candle) from $345 down to around $306. It is currently trying to stabilize near **$313**.
### **2. Key Price Levels to Watch**
* **Key Support (Floor):** **$305.00 – $306.00**
> *If the price falls below this, it could drop further.*
>
* **Key Resistance (Ceiling):** **$XAAPL 329.00 – $330.00**
> *The short-term moving averages (MA5 & MA10) sit here and will act as strong resistance.*
>
### **3. Market Prediction (Short-Term)**
* **Bearish / Neutral Scenario (Most Likely):**
Because the recent dump was very aggressive, expect some consolidation (sideways movement) between **$308 and $320** over the next few days. The price may test the **$329 resistance level**, but without high buying volume, it could get rejected and pull back down toward **$305**.
* **Bullish Reversal Scenario:**
If buyers push the price past **$330.00** with strong volume, the heavy drop will be considered a fakeout, and the price could climb back toward **$340+**.
> ⚠️ **Disclaimer:** *This is an technical analysis breakdown for educational purposes, not financial advice. Always do your own research before trading!*
> $XAAPL Don't guess where $SNDK is headed
After yesterday's strong 26% rebound, it is unlikely that the overall trend will continue a one-sided rally this afternoon, and profit-taking will be the main trend throughout the day.
Observing the market chart, it's not hard to see that after the pre-market surge to $1354, the upward momentum has clearly exhausted.
Each round of slight gains triggers a large amount of short-term profit-taking selling pressure. The support below is decent, but incremental bull funds have long stopped entering the market.
Based on on-chain and contract data tracked over several days, most of the leveraged funds that bottom-fished yesterday chose to cash out in batches and exit.
The number of large-scale take-profit transfers on-chain has doubled, funding rates continue to fall, and the short-term speculative activity on the market has cooled significantly.
Long-term whales have basically held their positions without moving at all, neither increasing their positions nor selling, quietly waiting for the market's direction to be selected.
At the track level, this round of rally relies on Microsoft's earnings to restore cloud procurement expectations, supported by the storage price hike cycle.
However, it is essentially a short-covering rally after overselling, without any new fundamental positives, and its sustainability is inherently lacking.
The storage sector collectively paused in tandem, with Micron and SK Hynix's gains narrowing sharply, and the sector's clustering heat faded.
From a practical trading perspective, I won't chase the highs in the afternoon to buy positions.
Above, the $1400 to $1450 range has accumulated a large amount of previously trapped chips, making a short-term breakout difficult.
In the afternoon, there is a high probability of a fluctuating pattern of surges and pullbacks, with repeated fluctuations in the range becoming the norm.
If the support level holds at $1280, the range will remain ranged; if it falls below it, it will give back most of the day's gains.
Overall, the short-term sentiment dividend has been fully realized, and the phase of consolidation grinding has officially begun.
After the short-term hype fades, how should we grasp the rhythm of selling high and buying low next?
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks $ETH On July 31, on-chain statistics based on DeFi Active TVL ranked Monad third globally with $367.1 million; trailing only Ethereum ($2.047 billion) and Solana ($484.5 million). As a new generation of high-performance Layer1 public blockchains, Monad has leapt to become one of the fastest-growing underlying public blockchains in the current RWA sector. 1. How to Understand the Core Value of This Data: 1. Key Statistical Differentiation: This time, it focuses on active DeFi TVL, excluding idle assets, and more truthfully reflecting on-chain funds participating in trading, lending, and other activities. Compared to the general TVL, it is less inflated and represents real liquid capital. 2. Clear tier structure: Established Ethereum and Solana still hold the top tier, while Monad has successfully shaken off many traditional public chains to become a representative of new forces. Relying on parallel execution architecture and EVM compatibility, it continuously attracts DeFi protocols and RWA institutions to deploy. 3. Narrative Resonance: A large number of tokenized real-world assets continue to migrate on-chain, and RWA funds are steadily accumulating, which is the core driving force behind Monad's sustained rise in active stake-lock, with clear signs of institutional capital deployment. 2. Two major risks must be viewed rationally: (1) TVL growth ≠ tokens immediately strengthen. Much on-chain liquidity relies on incentive funds and short-term cross-chain arbitrage funds, which have high liquidity. Once incentives fade, they can quickly flow out; The size of hedging is only a fundamental indicatorAmong the diverse and complex bottom prediction tools for Bitcoin, one type of indicator has weathered multiple bull and bear cycles and has extremely high practical reference value—mainstream mining machine shutdown prices. Technical indicators can be distorted by sentiment, macro narratives can reverse instantly, and on-chain holdings are also affected by major player transfers and cold wallet migrations. But miners' electricity bills are a rigid cash expense that cannot be subjectively avoided and must be continuously redeemed in fiat currency. Electricity fees are not automatically waived based on beliefs, narratives, or long-term optimism. Once the spot Bitcoin price breaks through the break-even shutdown line of the main mining machines across the network, losses will spread rapidly, and high-cost mining farms will be forced to shut down and sell off their BTC inventory to repay debts—this is what the market calls miner capitulation. This round of passive liquidation often smashes the iron bottom of a bear market cycle. Many investors confuse the concept: shutdown price does not equal the depreciation cost of mining machine hardware. Depreciation is sunk costs already paid; Shutdown prices only look at immediate cash flow—whether the BTC generated from mining can cover daily cash costs for electricity, facilities, and operations. As long as daily cash flow is negative, every extra day of continuous operation means losing more cash, and rational miners will choose to shut down the machines. Two Complete Bear Market Reviews: Shutdown Prices Highly Overlap with Market Bottoms Looking back at the deep bear markets of 2018 and 2022, we can clearly see the actual market bottom, which strongly resonates with the shutdown cost range of mainstream mining institutions at the time. 2018 Bear Market: Bottom at $3122 After the 2017 Bull Market Peak🚨 Today wasn't just a green candle on SK hynix... it was a reminder that big money leaves clues.
I opened the chart expecting nothing more than a relief bounce.
Instead, SK hynix exploded.
The more I dug into it, the clearer it became: this wasn't driven by a single headline. Multiple bullish catalysts lined up at the same time.
The biggest one?
SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won personally bought 3,620 shares of SK hynix on July 30, worth about ₩4.8 billion. What's interesting is that this was his first direct purchase of the stock after previously holding exposure only through SK Square.
After the stock had fallen from around ₩2.18M to ₩1.32M, that insider buy sent a strong message of confidence.
At the same time, the entire memory sector caught fire.
📈 The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged more than 7%, while SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, Micron, and SK hynix all rallied together. That's usually a sign of institutional money rotating into the sector—not just retail FOMO.
Microsoft's earnings added even more fuel.
Azure continued delivering impressive growth, annual cloud revenue surpassed $100 billion, and stronger profitability eased concerns that AI infrastructure spending was slowing. Add improving expectations for DRAM pricing and HBM demand next year, and it's easy to see why sentiment flipped so quickly.
As for my position, my average entry is around 908.37, and I'm sitting on a healthy unrealized gain.
I'm not trying to call the exact top.
My plan is simple:
✅ Scale out gradually as price moves higher.
✅ Keep raising my stop to protect profits.
✅ If the market pulls back but my risk level holds, I'll reassess—not panic.
The hardest part of investing isn't finding a winning trade.
It's knowing how to leave it without giving back the profits you worked so hard to earn.
$SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH
#AI #Semiconductors #Investing #PCE #GDP
#DailyOrbit Start cashing out rewards in batches! PCE data has catalyzed the market, and overnight positions have already reached the expected price level
With the release of PCE data signaling positive conditions, overnight positions have already risen to the planned target range, and at this stage, phased take-profit operations have been initiated.
• $SNDK has risen 35% since the stage low.
• SK Hynix's bottom rebound reached 33%
• MU Micron has risen about 26% from the bottom
This is a typical rapid rally, covering the preset upside potential in just one trading day. So how will the market unfold next?
This is just my personal opinion: this round of rebound is unlikely to be sustained very strongly.
The faster the rally, the more likely it is to have the attributes of a recovery and rebound; Such rapid rallies often attract follow-up funds, and there is still a possibility of further correction and digestion.
This morning, funds surged in succession, which could very well become a temporary price high.
Going forward, they will continue to seize opportunities in line with market rhythms.
#美联储三位官员表态倾向收紧政策, evening PCE data became a core market focus Amazon's free cash flow turned negative by $7.6 billion in the past December: AI capital expenditure should be viewed alongside cash
Amazon's operating cash flow for the twelve months ending June was $161.403 billion, a 33% increase from $121.166 billion in the previous twelve months. If you look at this column alone, cash generation capacity is still growing; However, the company also disclosed that net property and equipment purchases over the past twelve months amounted to $169.007 billion, a 64% increase from the previous period. As a result, the company's free cash flow outflow shifted from an inflow of $18.184 billion to an outflow of $7.604 billion.
This free cash flow is based on the past twelve months, not Q2 alone. The quarterly cash flow statement shows operating cash flow of $45.387 billion in Q2, $54.208 billion from property and equipment purchases, and $1.132 billion from property equipment and equipment sales incentives. Subtracting the latter two items, net cash outflow for property equipment for the quarter was approximately USD 53.076 billion; Comparing with operating cash flow, the simplified quarterly spread was approximately negative $7.689 billion. This simple calculation approaches but does not equal all free cash flow variants separately disclosed by the company.
The company clearly stated that net property and equipment purchases over the past twelve months increased by $66.1 billion year-on-year, mainly reflecting investments in AI. This is the official explanation for incremental growth, but it does not mean the entire $169.007 billion is dedicated solely to AI. Amazon also has fulfillment centers, transportation, offices, retail equipment, and other infrastructure. The official form does not break down all capital expenditures by AWS, logistics, or generative AI.
The balance sheet already reflects capital density. Net property and equipment at the end of June reached $446.046 billion, higher than the year-end $397.785 billion; Operating leasehold right-of-use assets amounted to $92.743 billion, with total assets rising to $1,095.689 billion. After new assets are put into service, depreciation will gradually enter costs in future quarters, so the improvement in operating profit this quarter does not mean that all new capacity costs are fully reflected in the current income statement.
Liquidity remains considerable. Cash and cash equivalents amounted to 78.213 billion USD, and securities 44.775 billion USD, totaling 122.988 billion USD; Long-term debt of $128.894 billion. Comparing just these two figures, cash and securities are slightly lower than long-term debt, but this is not an official net debt indicator because short-term debt, leases, other liabilities, and asset availability must also be considered.
Financing and investment activities are also expanding. This quarter, long-term debt issuance proceeded at $13.557 billion, with long-term debt repayments totaling $2.752 billion; Cash outflows from acquisitions and non-valuable investments amounted to $24.359 billion. These items do not constitute operating cash flow but can change the ending cash and asset structure. Simplifying negative free cash flow as "the company has no cash," or simply writing bond issuance as deteriorating operations, are both beyond what official data can support.
The most important cash signal this quarter is not a single positive or negative sign, but two speeds: operating cash flow continues to expand, and investment in property equipment is growing faster. Demand for AI capacity, chips, and data centers has entered the cash flow statement, but return on investment will still need to be validated in subsequent quarters using AWS revenue, segment operating profit, consolidated depreciation, and free cash flow.
Therefore, when published, three periods are consistently distinguished: Q2, the past twelve months, and the balance sheet. It can be confirmed that free cash flow over the past twelve months was negative $7.604 billion, and the company attributed the $66.1 billion capital injection increment mainly to AI; These figures cannot be rewritten into next quarter's results, nor can it be asserted that every dollar is used by AWS without a segmental capital expenditure statement.🚨 The U.S. stock market is moving wilder than crypto right now.
In just 48 hours, SanDisk soared 42.4% and SK Hynix gained 40.7%.
That's how quickly fear turns into FOMO.
Here's how I see it:
1️⃣ The AI boom isn't over—it's redistributing wealth.
I've said this before: this isn't the end of the AI story.
After years of explosive gains, many AI-related stocks became expensive. When valuations outrun earnings, corrections are normal. That's not the same as the investment thesis breaking.
Recent earnings still tell a strong story:
• Microsoft continues growing AI revenue.
• SK Hynix is increasing AI-related capex.
• Long-term HBM demand keeps rising.
The AI infrastructure buildout is still happening.
History shows that sharp sell-offs driven by fear often create opportunities—but only for investors who stay disciplined. The key isn't going all in; it's managing risk and building positions patiently.
2️⃣ This feels like a rebound, not a new bull market.
The storage sector added hundreds of billions in market value in just two days. To me, that's mostly a recovery from oversold levels—not proof that a fresh uptrend has begun.
For a true bull market, I believe we still need:
✅ The Federal Reserve to begin a real rate-cutting cycle.
✅ AI spending to consistently translate into profits, not just massive capital expenditures.
For now, high interest rates, elevated oil prices, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on liquidity. That's not the ideal backdrop for a one-way rally.
The biggest challenge in investing isn't predicting the next move.
It's keeping your discipline when everyone else is driven by fear... or euphoria.
#DailyOrbit Apple fell, Amazon rose: Two earnings reports, one lesson
This earnings season, it's particularly interesting to look at two companies side by side: Apple's earnings were good, but its stock price fell; Amazon's cash flow was negative, yet its stock price rose.
Apple: Did well this time, but forecasted to do worse next time
Let's first look at Apple's report card.
Revenue was $109.4 billion, up 16% year-over-year; net profit was $29.8 billion, up 27%. Breaking it down, iPhone revenue rose 22%, Mac rose 29%.
This is quite an impressive result. Both phones and computers sold very well, and the company remains very profitable.
So the question is, with such good results, why did the stock price fall?
Investors look at earnings reports not just to see how much was earned in the past three months, but more importantly, whether growth can continue.
To give an analogy: a student scored 90 this time, which is very good. But if he tells his parents, "Next exam, I can only score just over 80," how would the parents feel? Certainly not happy.
Apple did exactly this: it expects next quarter revenue growth of 9%–11%, below market expectations. The services business was not as strong as imagined, and AI has not yet brought significant revenue.
So Apple's problem is not that it isn't making money now, but the market worries that its growth rate may slow down.
Amazon: Spending aggressively, but already seeing returns
Now let's look at Amazon. The focus of this earnings report is not online retail, but AWS.
What is AWS? You can think of it as a computing power rental company. Many businesses don't want to buy servers or build data centers themselves, so they rent from Amazon. AI companies especially need computing power, so AWS naturally becomes the most direct beneficiary.
Looking at the numbers: total revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20%; operating profit was $27.5 billion, up 43%. AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37%—the fastest growth in the past 18 quarters.
But Amazon also spends aggressively: this year it plans to invest $220 billion on chips, data centers, and AI. Because of heavy spending, free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative $7.6 billion.
Negative cash flow, so why did the stock price still rise?
Another analogy: someone spends a lot to build a factory, so cash is tight initially. But as orders increase and revenue grows rapidly, lenders won't panic because they can see the money coming back.
Amazon is in this state now. AWS's 37% growth signals to the market that the money invested is already turning into revenue.
Why does Amazon rise while Meta falls despite both burning cash?
Yesterday we talked about Meta. Both Meta and Amazon are burning cash to build AI infrastructure, and both have declining free cash flow, but the market's attitude is completely different.
What's the difference?
Amazon spends money but can directly sell computing power to customers through AWS; customers pay for servers, cloud services, and AI usage as they go, so money comes back immediately.
Meta, on the other hand, makes money from Facebook and Instagram ads, then invests that ad revenue into AI models and data centers. AI can improve ad targeting, but the clear accounting between investment and returns is unclear.
Amazon spends and earns simultaneously; Meta spends first and it's uncertain how much it will earn in the future. The market naturally prefers the former.
Apple's problem is not lack of profit, but possibly slower future growth; Amazon's problem is heavy spending, but AWS has proven the spending is worthwhile.
This principle applies to all companies: spending money is not scary; what's scary is spending money that doesn't bring back more revenue and profit. Bear Market Review: Why the shutdown price of mainstream mining machines is the hardcore benchmark at the bottom of the BTC cycle
Miners' electricity fees are rigid cash costs and have no subjective compression space. When Bitcoin's market price breaks through the break-even shutdown line of the main miners, miners are forced to surrender and sell off liquidations, often squeezing out the iron bottom of a bear market cycle. By reviewing two complete bull and bear cycles, we can clearly see the validity of this logic.
Looking back at the bottom of two major bear markets in history:
• 2018 bear market bottom $3122: The main force across the network was the Ant S9. In the industry's general 0.05 USD electricity price environment, shutdown costs were concentrated between 3000-3500 USD, and the actual market bottom was exactly in this range.
• 2022 bear market bottom $15,476: The mainstream miners in the market have updated to the S19 and M30S, also calculated at a $0.05 electricity price, with shutdown prices ranging from $14,000 to $16,000, with the market bottom highly overlapping with the cost range.
Using the current mainstream electricity price of $0.05/kWh for compliant mining farms as the benchmark, break down the current mine shutdown cost stratification:
1. Tiered prices for mainstream mining machine shutdowns
1. Current main models on the market (S21 / S21 Pro / M60): shutdown cost $45,000-$55,000
2. Water-cooled flagship high-performance model (S21 XP Hyd): Better power optimization, shutdown cost $32,000-$40,000
2. Two-round bottom scenario prediction
(1) Initial support range: $48,000–$55,000
Prices fell back to this range, large quantities of mainstream S21 mining machines entered a loss-making state, the expansion of computing power across the entire network came to a halt, and highly indebted listed mining companies began continuous selling pressure to repay debts.
Trading Meaning: Long-term funds can start partial base position positions, which is the first level of ambush, but not necessarily the ultimate large bottom.
(2) Extreme liquidation range: $38,000–$45,000
If combined with a macro black swan and sharp global liquidity tightening, the market could directly break through the shutdown threshold of mainstream mining machines. A large number of mid-cost mining farms could no longer operate, choosing to shut down operations or liquidate assets in bulk.
Looking back at history, this kind of large-scale clearance of mainstream miners is the absolute bottom of a bear market.
3. Don't subjectively guess the bottom! Three major confirmation signals indicating a bottom
A price drop to the cost range is only a necessary condition; it does not mean a bottoming out immediately. You must confirm it on the right side in conjunction with signals on the mining chain:
1. Hash Ribbon miner surrender indicator: After a death cross appears, a golden cross forms again, indicating that large-scale miner selling pressure has ended;
2. BTC mining difficulty: Two or more consecutive significant negative reductions, each with a reduction greater than 5%, resulting in a substantial collapse in hash rate;
3. Miner Reserve: After a rapid and sharp decline, the value stabilized and flattened, indicating miner selling has basically been exhausted.
When the price falls within the corresponding shutdown price range + the above three signals are triggered in sequence, a macro bear market bottom is considered confirmed.
Disclaimer: The shutdown price is a static theoretical estimate and may be affected by electricity price fluctuations, mining enterprise liabilities, and hedging operations. It is for cyclical research reference only and does not constitute investment advice.The core contradiction exposed during the Q2 earnings season: large tech companies' free cash flow is approaching zero or even turning negative, CapEx's continued expansion has shifted from internal cash circulation to external financing, and the 5-7% interest cost directly changes the market's pricing logic for AI investment.
On the market front, Meta was hit by 8% for pure cash burning, while Microsoft gained market recognition for its cloud business utilization. With both high CapEx, whether FCF can remain positive has become a core variable in stock price differentiation. $XGOOGL Currently caught between these two extremes, the market is waiting to see if its downstream advertising and cloud revenue can cover the incremental capital expenditure.
Driver Rankings: First, a negative FCF means continued expansion must bear external financing costs. A 5-7% interest rate directly erodes ROI calculations, a constraint not present in previous zero-interest cycles; Second, market pricing anchors shift from CapEx scale to CapEx returns, with downstream utilization and real profit payback cycles becoming valuation watersheds; Third, on the capital flow side, institutions are rebalancing during earnings seasons; stocks with negative FCF experience net outflows, while those with positive FCF absorb overflow, accelerating liquidity redistribution within the sector.
Upside scenario: If GOOGL shows in its financial report that cloud utilization continues to climb and AI-related ad revenue growth exceeds expectations, it proves CapEx investment is beginning to yield quantifiable returns, and the market may once again tolerate high capital expenditures. The trigger conditions are accelerated cloud revenue growth quarter-on-quarter and positive FCF, with observed variables being GCP utilization data and changes in AI ad unit prices. The failure signal is FCF turning negative and cloud growth slowing.
Downward scenario: If the next round of financial reports shows stagnant AI infrastructure utilization and downstream customer payment conversion rates falling short of expectations, continued FCF deterioration will force the market to systematically discount AI premiums across large tech sectors. The trigger conditions are two consecutive quarters of quarterly decline in FCF and continued expansion of CapEx, with variables to watch being the pace of corporate bond issuance and changes in credit spreads. Failure signals are shareholder return plans that exceed expectations or large-scale buyback announcements interrupting bearish logic.
On the derivatives side, during earnings season, the implied volatility of tech giants' options was already at a high level this year, and the rise in put skew reflects increased institutional hedging demand for FCF risk. In terms of spot capital flows, the technology sector saw net redemptions at the ETF level, but there was clear divergence among individual stocks—FCF-healthy targets still had net subscriptions.
The most critical variable to watch over the next 7 days: the absolute value and sequential direction of free cash flow in the GOOGL earnings, and whether management signals marginal convergence in CapEx guidance for the second half.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight$BTC According to market data, BTC options showed strong bullish sentiment before the end of the month, but spot prices did not rise in tandem as expected. Data from the Deribit platform shows that approximately $5 billion worth of BTC options open interest are concentrated in two major strike price ranges: $70,000 and $72,000. Currently, BTC is priced around $64,300, with significant space above the dense exercise zone. Many retail investors, upon seeing this news, immediately concluded that major players are collectively betting on an upward trend, and the market is about to break through the 70,000 mark. However, there is a highly prevalent trading misconception here: the accumulation of large call options does not mean traders are betting on a price increase, nor does it necessarily mean the price of the displayed contract will inevitably rise. 1. Concentrated Bullish Positions: Multiple Strategic Possibilities Institutions and professional traders place large amounts of out-of-the-money call options for more than just one purpose: 1. Bull Market Spread Combination (most common): Buy low-value call options and sell high-strike call options to hedge premium costs. This is a range-bound strategy; traders do not expect a sharp price surge, only a mild rebound. 2. Spot position protection strategy: Large holders hold large amounts of BTC spot, buying out-of-the-money bullish is a coverage strategy to increase returns and does not mean adding more long positions. 3. Event Hedging Positioning Formulating multi-scenario scenarios for the Fed's decisions and macro data, focusing solely on volatility rather than predicting a one-sided rise. In other words, a massive amount of call options is a complex trade$TSLA $XTSLA Cheche, do you still have any battery?
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is currently in a critical period of market adjustment. Based on the latest market data and financial reports, the following is a detailed analysis:
1. Recent financial performance and stock price trends
Poor financial performance: On July 22, 2026, Tesla released its Q2 earnings report of $28.24 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.33, which not only fell short of market expectations (about 38.5%), but also marked a significant decline in operating profit margin, turning free cash flow negative (-$1.09 billion).
Increase in capital expenditures: Due to increased investments in AI, autonomous driving, and production facilities, capital expenditures (CapEx) have shown a trend of "doubling quarter-over-quarter." Management expects full-year 2026 capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion and plans to apply for debt financing facilities up to $30 billion.
Stock Price Volatility: As of the close on July 30, 2026, Tesla's stock price was $308.85. Previously, due to negative earnings reports, the stock price plunged about 17.8% within a week.
2. The focus of market attention
Currently, investors' concerns about Tesla mainly focus on the following points:
Lack of clear vision: The market is impatient with Tesla's mass production progress in projects such as Robotaxi and Optimus, and the lack of a concrete timeline has left investors anxious about future growth.
Cybertruck sales difficulties: The market is disappointed with the Cybertruck's sales performance. Some reports say sales are far below previous high targets, and the media even labeled it the "biggest flop in the automotive industry," putting pressure on Tesla's brand reputation.
Musk's personal wealth fluctuations: Another company closely related to Tesla, SpaceX, has recently seen a sharp decline in valuation, causing Musk's personal wealth to shrink historically within a month. This has also indirectly affected investor confidence in his companies.
3. Today's and short-term observation recommendations
If you follow Tesla, it is recommended to pay attention to the following indicators:
Debt and cash flow management: The company plans to borrow up to $30 billion, and the market will closely examine whether these funds can be effectively converted into future profit growth or simply burn cash flow.
Production and Delivery Data: Although Q2 production and deliveries remained steady (about 450,000 and 480,000 units respectively), the collapse in profit margins suggests that its pricing power may be weakening.
Macroeconomic environment: Currently, the global manufacturing PMI is contracting (July data was 49.2), and consumer demand is weak, posing challenges for Tesla, which mainly focuses on high-end models.
In summary:
Tesla is currently in a 'transitional phase,' shifting from a simple automaker to an AI and robotics technology company. Although capital expenditure is substantial, the market needs to see more concrete revenue returns to support current valuations. The current stock price is fluctuating around $300, reflecting a significant divide among investors between the company's fundamentals and future vision.Recently, the market seems to be filled with voices about the US stock bubble bursting. If the US stock market really bursts in such a bubble, wouldn't that mean most people will make money? In any case, I also don't believe this market will make most people profitable. Therefore, personally, I believe the US stock bubble still hasn't burst yet. —————————————————— Some people are panicking over capital expenditures in tech companies' financial reports, worrying that funds flowing into AI may become increasingly scarce in the future. Such concerns do objectively exist, but they won't significantly affect the development of AI. Take Google as an example: Google's annual capital expenditure on AI is estimated to be around $200 billion. Currently, only its third quarter free cash flow is negative, and that figure is only a few billion dollars. Even if the four quarters are the same figure, the total amount would only be around 20 billion US dollars. In other words, Google only needs to cut about $20 billion in capital expenditure to fully restore free cash flow to positive territory. Compared to $200 billion, $20 billion isn't a drop in the bucket, but it's safe to say it's harmless. Moreover, Google may not cut expenses, as its cloud service revenue is very strong and has seen significant growth. Moreover, Google itself has a very deep financial backing, so these billions of dollars are indeed not much for Google. The market is now worried about whether Google can control this capital expenditure; it cannot be said this time to be in the billions of dollarsThe market is waiting for answers from Amazon and Apple tonight. $BTC currently quoted at 63,930, with no clear direction. But last night, Microsoft and Meta's earnings reports laid their differences on the table—they're not the same story at all. Microsoft's report card is solid cash flow: $90 billion in revenue, Azure growth rising quarter-on-quarter, and Copilot's enterprise subscribers exceeding expectations. Every subscription is a real income deducted monthly, and every unit of AI computing power consumption corresponds to the company's bill. AI in this company is a business to be sold, not a vision shown on a PowerPoint. Meta's side is a completely different storyline. The $60.8 billion revenue growth is indeed impressive, but free cash flow has hit a four-year low, and the capital expenditure cap has been pushed straight to $145 billion. The market gives you a vote with your feet, so it goes down. The core disagreement isn't about growth rate, but about where the money goes. Microsoft is making money with AI, Meta is building infrastructure with AI, and the future is uncertain. Recalling Amazon's harsh criticism from 2013 to 2018, Bezos was indeed burning money, but AWS's business model was clear from the start to be B2B monetization. Meta is betting on AGI and open-source ecosystems—no one can say exactly where the moat is. Before this question has an answer, declining cash flow is a knife hanging over valuations. So those in the crypto world and related sectors need patience; tonight's Amazon cloud guidance is the real touchstone. AWS acceleration shows that enterprise AI demand hasn't peaked, and Microsoft's rally can still hold firm. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, but its stock price reverses$SNDK SanDisk Market Overview (as of 12:00 noon on July 31)
After a violent 25.99% rebound the previous day, SanDisk's short-term sentiment has completely reversed, entering a phase of high-level digestion before the market opens. Can this oversold recovery continue into a trending rally?
From my experience watching the market on two lines for several consecutive days, this round of rally is entirely a recovery in sentiment + resonance of cyclical expectations, not the start of a new main rally.
On Thursday, SanDisk closed at $1,279.96, surging nearly 26% in a single day, with a total turnover close to 30 billion and a turnover rate close to 17%.
In my view, ultra-high turnover is very crucial, a typical large-scale high-level chip swap: trapped investors flee early, short-term speculative funds enter in succession, and long-term institutions barely increase their positions.
Combining the on-chain and capital data I tracked, this round of rebound has very strong leverage attributes.
During the sharp decline, large on-chain bottom-fishing addresses surged, and contract positions continued to rise, representing the bottom held by leveraged funds;
$SNDK After yesterday's sharp rise, on-chain take-profit transfers increased significantly, and funding rates fell, indicating that short-term arbitrage positions have started to be cashed out in batches.
Genuine long-term whale addresses remain locked and wait-and-see, with no trend-level increase signals.
From the perspective of track research, this rally is based on two main logics.
Microsoft's better-than-expected AI earnings stabilized cloud vendors' purchasing expectations and offset the biggest negative factor of the storage demand collapse;
Combined with production controls by the three major OEMs, the continuation of flash memory price hike cycles, and SanDisk's fundamentals supporting over 40 billion yuan in long-term locked orders, capital is willing to revalue oversold stocks for recovery.
But I clearly see: there is no new incremental fundamentals; only pessimistic expectations have been repaired.
Trading tips: The roller coaster market of the past few days reminded me once again.
During sharp drops, retail investors panic and buy at the bottom; during sharp rises, retail investors chase the highs to buy in, completely reversing the flow of capital flow.
I maintained a wait-and-see approach throughout, buying on dips, avoiding chasing highs and avoiding the high-volatility trapping rally during the day.
As of noon today, SanDisk surged to $1,354 before market trading before stagnation and weakening, with its upward momentum clearly exhausted.
The overall sector cooled in tandem, storage collectives rested and consolidated, funds began to avoid high-cyclical speculative markets, and flowed back into stable hardware tracks.
My core market view is clear: right now it's an oversold rebound + sentiment recovery, not a cyclical reversal.
$SNDK Above $1400–1450, there is heavy resistance to trap the market, with high-level fluctuations and repeated shakeouts as the main trend going forward.
After a short-term rally with strong sentiment, can SanDisk really break through the pressure and sustain its rally? #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks The US spot BTC ETF has resumed net inflows for two consecutive trading days, and BTC has returned to around $64,600, but the price has yet to effectively break through $65,000. This indicates that although the direction of funds has improved, the forces needed to drive a trending rally have not yet fully formed. 1. ETF inflow scale remains small. On July 29 and 30, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $32.1 million and $48.2 million respectively, totaling about $80.3 million over two days. Compared to the net outflow exceeding $465 million on July 23 and 24, the current scale of inflows remains limited, indicating that selling pressure has eased, but not enough to confirm large-scale institutional re-allocation. 2. Spot trading volume has yet to significantly expand. Glassnode pointed out that although BTC is consolidating around $64,500, spot trading remains weak, and the short-term upward trend is slowing. The current rally relies more on stable chips and derivative funds rather than strong active spot buying. 3. Short-term capital ratio rises, making market volatility more likely. Glassnode also noted that short-term, price-sensitive capital is increasing in the market. Such funds can accelerate rebounds or quickly exit when prices hit resistance, making the market more sensitive to momentum changes and selling pressure. 4. ETH and SOL do not form synchronized resonance. ETH ETFs still recorded slight net outflows, with SOL ETFs seeing zero funds for two consecutive days. Funds only saw slight improvements on the BTC side, without spreading to ETH and SOL, indicating overall riskThe direction hasn't changed. This round of decline is essentially a chain reaction triggered by the US and Japan jointly intervening in the foreign exchange market and the short-term appreciation of the yen, rather than a trend reversal. The intervention is limited to verbal price inquiries and is of limited strength. Bitcoin is under short-term pressure but this does not change the medium-term direction. The bottom at 54000 has already passed. The most dangerous checkmates on the board often hide in the thirty-seventh move, when your opponent thinks you've already been defeated. KOSPI dropped 17% in three days, then surged 14% in the next day. This isn't a dead cat jump, but a counterattack with a 40-step depth hidden behind a dropped piece.
Three days of overcast fall, which is the false sway of the rear wing; The sudden surge in one day was Wang Yi's stabbing momentum. The grandmaster never looked at the remaining clock on the chess clock, only relying on the calculations behind the seven layers of depth. Those who truly make money have already calculated the result of the twentieth move before making a move. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won bought a Hynix for the first time, a move called the "king's shift" in the game records—when the most conservative kings leave the castle, it means the king's attack is already settled; US memory stocks rebounded in tandem, like opening up online for two vehicles to connect and protect each other; The Bank of Korea's rare exchange rate intervention was to pause the clock for two seconds—then let the opponent place their move while suffocating.
Hynix is 28% in a single day, 26% for three stars. This isn't Scaramouche's random rampage, but three pieces targeting one slot simultaneously: the exposed boss. A true player understands that when a gap appears in the opponent's royal castle, the most rational move is not to rush to capture the enemy's pawn, but to turn every move into a lasso. The rise and fall of memory chips is actually the most typical central battle in the middle game—whoever controls the memory benchmark price controls the endgame's road path. Just like that move that seemed like a blunder to send the queen, the outsider saw boldness, but I saw the rear general controlling the entire game on the seventh horizontal line after five moves.
But the underlying currents on the chessboard are always hidden within leverage. The single-share leveraged products launched in May are like two stacked pawns—seemingly ready to charge into battle, but disrupting the balance of the entire chess game. The zigzag chart of XSKHY, KR200, and SAMSUNG is overclocked and flipped at every step. The essence of leverage tools is to compress a middle game that would normally take a month into a three-minute lightning battle. Human players have no time to calculate and can only rely on intuition. But intuition in the market is often the most expensive mistake. These accelerated times make every fluctuation feel like a byoyomi, and the moves made during byoyomi are rarely precise.
Now look at $XDELL—it's like an isolated car that only has value on an open line. The US-Korea storage collaboration is a classic 'windmill' strategy in chess: you move first, I entangle; You stay quiet, I tune in. $XDELL see not just simple follow-up, but also pawns where global capital is synchronously mobilizing the rear wings. When the Korean market jumps like a bomb, the U.S. target is certainly not a bystander, but another clock sitting opposite each other in the same game. Both chess clocks have different speeds, but they follow the same set of game records.
The Korean won exchange rate, storage chips, and policy interventions—these three elements resonate at the same moment, earning a name on the game record: forced move changes. You can't resist, so you can only calculate the cost of the next step. KOSPI's surge may seem overwhelming, but the real winner is not on today's chessboard, but in the midgame entanglements over the next ten days. A 14% rise can go down in history, meaning the bears have been penetrated, but the entire bullish formation is exposed to counter-aiming guns. When five overlapping channels appear on the board, what I see is not a triumphant victory, but the final silence before the general. #kospisurges14%BTC has returned to 64,400. It was still at 64,800 in the morning, but by noon it was smashed back. Over the past half month, this scenario has played out repeatedly—hitting 65,000-66,000 and getting smashed, dropping to 63,000-64,000 and then getting accepted. Tugging back and forth, the direction was unclear. To be honest, this position made me feel uncomfortable. Moving upward, 65,000 has failed three attempts, each time pushing back and pushing back, indicating obvious selling pressure above. Downward, near 63,000, there are $482 million long liquidations; if it falls below that, it will trigger a chain reaction. Major players have net increased their holdings by over 60,000 BTC in the past 60 days, ETF funds are also flowing back, and Blackstone IBIT has started net inflows. But the 65,000 mark just can't be crossed; the market seems to be waiting for something—waiting for a clearer signal, for a breakout catalyst, or for a reason to sell. Coinglass's data is straightforward: $567 million in short positions above 66,000 are waiting to be liquidated, and $482 million in long positions below 63,000 are waiting for forced liquidation. Both sides hold large leveraged positions; whoever moves first steps on a landmine. This kind of sideways movement will not last forever. Historical data shows that after the low volatility phase ends, a trending market is inevitable—either surges or plunges. Personally, I believe the probability of a breakout is slightly higher. But "thinking" and "taking action" are two different things. Before seeing a surge above 65,000, chasing in is a gamble. If you bet right, you get a win; if you bet wrong, you take the bet. So my strategy is veryARB: Robinhood has passed the torch, can the L2 veterans catch it? On July 31, 2026, Beijing time, external public quotes showed ARB at about $0.0775. This price may seem quiet, but behind it lies anything else: Robinhood Chain mainnet launch, on-chain trading heating up, L2 revenue sharing, DeFi incentives—multiple lines have simultaneously pushed ARB back into the spotlight. (1) Robinhood Chain is one of the most prominent catalysts for Arbitrum this year. According to official information, Robinhood Chain launched its public beta mainnet on July 1 as a dedicated Arbitrum chain for settlement to Ethereum, with over 200 million transactions processed during the testnet phase. CoinDesk reported that Robinhood's on-chain trading boom reached $568 million, causing ARB to spike at one point. For ARBs, this is not an ordinary partnership, but a showcase of a "broker-level entry + L2 tech stack." (2) The appeal of ARB is not just hype, but the relationship between revenue and ecosystem. Arbitrum forum data mentions that 8% of Robinhood Chain-related revenue sharing goes to ArbitrumDAO and 2% to Robinhood Chain treasury. This means if the user is real