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$META The Q2 financial report figures are unbelievably impressive, with $60.8 billion in revenue reaching a record high, and advertising revenue at 59.4 billion yuan, a growth rate of 27%. But after hours, the stock price plunged 7%, and the market voted with its feet but simply didn't buy it. The problem lies in the bills: after burning through 31 billion in capital expenditures in a single quarter, free cash flow is reduced to only 784 million, a 91% evaporation compared to 8.55 billion in the same period last year. This isn't a performance crash; it's the bill of the AI arms race finally laid out on the table. Meta's R&D expenses surged year-on-year, and with legal provisions and layoffs and severance pay, the total cost reached $42 billion—more than half of last year's cost. Microsoft's cloud business surged 8% in after-hours after hours, while Google fell into negative cash flow territory for the first time in Google's history last week. The giants have collectively entered a state of burning cash for the future, and Meta's free cash flow turning negative next quarter is almost certain. AI narratives have supported valuations for two years, and now it's time for the final round. $RENDER $FET These AI concept coins have already pulled back sharply last week along with the US AI sector, with concerns about runaway computing costs spreading from Wall Street to the crypto market. When traffic giants like Meta can't hold up on AI bills, the market's valuation logic for all AI-related assets will be re-examined. In the short term, AI sector tokens still have room to decline; the main approach is to wait and see, waiting until major companies' earnings report has cleared out risks before discussing positioning. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rose 9% #微软单日市值30Y Yield Hits 19-Year High: Why Crypto Is Facing a Major Stress Test
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades, marking one of the most significant macro developments of the year. When a traditionally "risk-free" asset offers yields above 5%, global capital tends to become more selective, creating a challenging environment for high-volatility assets such as cryptocurrencies.
The first impact is on liquidity. Higher Treasury yields translate into higher borrowing costs, more expensive leverage, and reduced risk appetite across financial markets. Historically, these conditions have placed short-term pressure on $BTC, $ETH, and the broader altcoin market as speculative capital shifts toward safer, income-generating assets.
However, the crypto story is not entirely bearish. If rising yields are driven by persistent inflation concerns and growing doubts about the long-term effectiveness of monetary policy, Bitcoin may regain attention as a scarce digital asset with potential value as an inflation hedge. This is why every major move in the U.S. bond market is closely monitored by crypto investors.
In the near term, volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets reassess interest rate expectations, ETF capital flows, and overall liquidity conditions. Stronger U.S. Treasury yields could continue to weigh on risk assets, but any signs of easing inflation or a shift in Federal Reserve policy could quickly reverse sentiment.
Ultimately, the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a 19-year high is more than a bond market headline—it's a key macro signal that could shape the next major trend for digital assets. For crypto investors, monitoring Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and upcoming Federal Reserve guidance may be just as important as watching the price charts of $BTC and $ETH.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#ColdcardBTCExploit
#Ethereum11Years
$BTC $ETH #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
After a 17% Strong Rebound in Korean Stocks: How Should We Respond to Next Monday's Open?
Friday's 17% rise was the first time in the history of the Korean stock market. SK Hynix hit the 30% daily limit, Samsung rose 27%, and the market was quite impressive.
But don't get me wrong—this isn't a fundamental reversal, it's a spring that has been squeezed to the extreme and let go.
On Thursday, the market capitalizations of Samsung and SK Hynix fell 40% and 54% respectively from their June peaks. The clearing of high-leverage holdings was nearing its end, and combined with Microsoft and Amazon's earnings reports extending AI life, the bears were collectively crushed.
How should we respond to next Monday's Korean stock market?
First, don't chase the highs; first look at how the US stock market moves. On Friday night, U.S. storage chips opened higher but fell lower, with SanDisk plunging from a 10% gain to a 6% drop during trading. The Philadelphia semiconductor index opened higher but turned lower. This US stock market remains weak, and the relay of sentiment in South Korea will be broken.
Second, observe whether foreign capital is sustainable. On Friday, this rebound was publicly stated by researcher Jung In Yun as mainly driven by short closing and mechanical leveraged ETF rebalancing. The real test is whether foreign investors are still willing to come in and buy after the wave of forced liquidations subsides.
Third, Samsung and SK Hynix are focusing on two things. First, the trend of spot storage chip prices and DRAM contract prices—whether the pace of price increases has slowed down—this is the critical factor for the entire cycle.
Second, the pace of HBM4 volume ramp-up—Samsung clearly stated that third-quarter HBM4 sales more than doubled quarter-on-quarter. If delivered, South Korea's semiconductor chip logic can hold up.
You can position short positions on rallies! For heavy positions trapped, taking advantage of this rebound can consider cutting some of the amortization costs. The core variable in August was whether foreign net buying could continue; we will take it one step at a time. DATAIP｜My Long Position Strategy: Trading Low-Level Liquidity Recovery, Not Betting on Trend Reversal
I am going long on $DATA, not because I judge it has entered a strong bullish phase, but because the current price has reached a level worth attempting a low-level reversal trade.
$DATA has dropped about 17% in the past seven days and nearly 28% in thirty days, with the price returning near $0.22, very close to the recent low of $0.2178. After continuous pullbacks, market sentiment, short positions chasing, and holders' stop losses are concentrated below the low point. For me, the risk-reward ratio of continuing to chase shorts here starts to decline; instead, I need to observe whether a structural rebound will occur after the sellers' liquidity is liquidated.
Therefore, my trade is not a "long-term bullish bet on DATAIP" but a bet on price recovery after a low-level liquidity sweep.
1. Why I Choose to Go Long at This Level
The first reason is the price level.
DATAIP is currently around $0.2198, with the 24-hour low and recent historical lows concentrated between $0.2178 and $0.2208. This area accumulates a large amount of stop losses, panic selling, and short profit-taking demand, making it the market's most likely spot for a liquidity sweep.
When the price continuously falls and approaches previous lows, the market usually has two outcomes:
One is a valid break below the previous low, accepting a lower valuation and continuing the bearish trend; the other is a brief penetration of the low, absorbing the last batch of sell orders, then quickly recovering, forming a typical liquidity sweep.
My long position is based on the second possibility.
The second reason is that the potential return now exceeds the risk I am willing to take.
If we take around $0.2178 as the invalidation point, the stop loss can be controlled within a relatively limited range; once the price reclaims $0.223-$0.226, the short-term has the chance to recover to $0.240-$0.250 first, and in a strong scenario, it may further rebound to around $0.267.
This means even if my directional judgment is wrong, I can exit with a clear stop loss; if correct, the upward price space is enough to cover the risk.
The third reason is that DATAIP still has sufficient trading liquidity and narrative flexibility.
DATAIP is a new asset after Story Protocol/IP completed a 1:1 brand and token code conversion. The market narrative is gradually shifting toward AI training data, data licensing, source verification, and on-chain data infrastructure.
These conditions do not directly prove the price will rise, but they mean once the market starts trading the AI data narrative, similar to how $ETH established its application capabilities initially, DATAIP still has the potential for revaluation and is not completely lacking capital support.
2. The Actual SMC Structure of My Trade
Currently, DATAIP's mid-term structure remains weak, so my long position must be based on confirmation of a low-level structure.
The first area I focus on is $0.2208-$0.2178.
This is the most obvious recent sell-side liquidity. If the price briefly breaks below this area and then quickly recovers, I will regard it as a signal that the market has swept low stop losses and absorbed active sell orders.
The second area is $0.223-$0.226.
This is the short-term reclaim zone and an important level to judge whether the low-level sweep is effective. Only if the price reclaims this area does it mean the selling below the low has not formed sustained price acceptance.
If a 1-hour level CHoCH or BOS appears and the price holds $0.223-$0.226 on the pullback, I will consider increasing my position. This indicates the market is shifting from continuous lower highs and lower lows to establishing a new higher low.
The third area is $0.240-$0.250.
This determines whether DATAIP's rise is just a technical rebound or the start of repairing a higher timeframe structure. If the price can break through with volume and hold, the next major liquidity target will be around $0.267-$0.268.
So, my complete trading script is:
Price sweeps $0.2208-$0.2178, quickly recovers to $0.223-$0.226, small-scale structure turns bullish, establishes a higher low after a non-break pullback, and finally pushes toward $0.240-$0.250.
3. How I View So-Called Smart Money
Current on-chain data only proves that there is still trading and liquidity support at low levels; it is not enough to directly claim that whales are accumulating on a large scale.
Addresses like PancakeSwap vault, Binance Wallet, DEX routers, and aggregators essentially belong to liquidity infrastructure or user trading routing. Large holdings in these addresses do not mean a single smart money account is actively building a position.
Recently, some addresses have been repeatedly trading in the WDATAIP-USDT pool, indicating arbitrage funds and short-term traders remain active, but this behavior is still far from true accumulation.
The confirmation signals I value more are:
Non-exchange, non-router addresses continuously net buying in the $0.218-$0.223 range; price no longer makes effective new lows despite selling pressure; DEX and centralized exchange volumes increase synchronously; large purchases do not quickly return chips to exchanges.
Before these conditions appear, I will not take "smart money accumulation" as a given fact. At this stage, a more reasonable statement is that capital games have begun at low levels, but price and on-chain behavior need to confirm together. A $250 billion valuation, with an annual operating loss of $6.355 billion. $SPCX SpaceX fell from a high of about $225 to $108.37, with the evaporated market value already exceeding the original transaction price of xAI.
The rocket is still carrying out launches, and Starlink still contributes about 70% of quarterly revenue. The stock price compression is more like a segmental revaluation: investors continue to acknowledge SpaceX's space and connectivity assets, but no longer unconditionally pay forward premiums for Grok, data centers, and orbital computing.
The August earnings report doesn't answer whether xAI has imagination, but how much cash that imagination will burn.
Click the article to learn more. 🧢🧢🧢
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard $CORE 如今的价格走势，本就是摆在明面上的事实，根本不用刻意刻意抹黑造谣。
CORE在2023年2月8日主网上线当日冲高至最高6.9美元，后续很长一段时间长期在0.4美元区间横盘震荡，现如今价格跌至0.018美元。不管投资者在哪个价位进场，几乎都难逃被套的结局，单纯陈述客观行情走势，反倒被冠以黑子的标签，实在难以理解。
纵观整个山寨币市场，跌幅能和CORE比肩的币种寥寥无几。代币挖矿释放周期长达81年，流通量日复一日持续扩容，每天都有大量新增代币流入二级市场，场内筹码持续增加，只能依靠散户不断接盘承接抛压[(Core DAO)]。很多山寨币往往只有顶部没有底部，项目本身缺少落地的实际应用价值支撑，即便价格跌到近乎一文不值，项目方出货依旧存在利润空间。
CORE长期承压下行的核心根源，在于代币持续线性解锁增发，流通规模不断扩大，抛压长期存在。早期上线依靠空投热度炒作冲高，热度褪去之后，链上生态没有形成可持续的落地价值，缺少真实使用需求承接盘面。大盘整体行情回暖时它反弹乏力，大盘下行阶段跌幅却远超多数币种，筹码长期处于增量释放的状态，普通散户进场之后很难摆脱被套的困境。
很多人把客观梳理项目代币解锁压力、长期阴跌现状的行为视作刻意抹黑，但这些都是链上可查询的公开数据。山寨币种若是缺少真实价值支撑，只依靠短期叙事炒作拉盘，行情走完炒作周期之后，就会陷入长期阴跌的循环，持续的代币增发只会不断稀释场内持仓筹码的价值。
在加密市场当中，单纯依靠短期情绪炒作、没有长期生态价值落地的山寨币，很容易走出单边下行的走势。CORE每日流通量稳步增加，增量筹码源源不断砸向市场，缺少机构长线资金长期托底，散户接盘的节奏很难跟上代币解锁的速度，这也是价格长期不断走低的关键原因。客观复盘项目基本面与长期走势，只是理性分析市场风险，并非刻意做空抹黑项目。
$CORE #"AI Stock God" funds liquidate positions, Micron rises over 15% in a single day
$SNDK $KORU $SOXL AI Stock Master Liquidation Review: Seeing the Right Direction but Dying on Leverage—Why Are High-Margin US Stocks Holding Profits Falling the Worst Rate?
Recently, the circle has been buzzing about the liquidation of the "AI stock god" Leopold. This rally is truly thrilling. In the first half of the year, it was still hyping up the market, but in just one month, the gains were wiped out, making it a signature event for this tech stock correction.
A quick review of his operation: the logic is actually reasonable, and in the long run, it works well.
He mainly focuses on hardware such as storage, AI cloud data centers, and power computing power, while shorting traditional software to hedge. But his biggest flaw was leveraging financing and holding too heavy a position.
When SK Hynix fell in early July, he not only didn't reduce his position but actually increased it, leaving no backup plan. By July 24, he still wanted to raise funds to buy the dip, but market sentiment had already changed.
Just a few days later (July 28), the bank demanded additional margin, and he was forced to sell his stocks due to insufficient cash. During those days, the Korean index plunged 10%, and everyone was stunned at the time. Now it's clear he was forced to close his positions. Finally, on July 30, Citadel took over most of his holdings, marking the end of a generation of stock market legends.
This incident taught us a profound lesson: many times, people's judgments about long-term trends are correct, but they often don't stick to it to the end.
Many people think that adding a bit of leverage is fine and can hold on, but when it comes to a life-or-death crisis, financial institutions won't give you time to fulfill their logic and will only ruthlessly force liquidation.
Looking back at this round of market volatility, since the Korean index peaked on June 22, global tech stocks have fallen sharply. Looking at the AI star stock data from the US, South Korea, and Japan, I found that a 40% drawdown is actually just the average level.
Even more interestingly, when you look at the decline and gross margin side by side, you find that the companies that fell the hardest all have very high gross margins.
The logic is clear: the market has been clustering around these high-margin products, causing excessive crowding of transactions. Once there's any disturbance, the stampede naturally becomes fiercest. Nashville's Pie, Washington's Wastebasket: How Was the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act Quietly Strangled in Congress?
Here's the conclusion: the American politicians who hyped up the Bitcoin strategic reserve at the Nashville convention returned to Washington and quietly shoved the bill into the lowest level of Congress's wastebasket.
A few days ago, the entire crypto community was abuzz with excitement over that grand Bitcoin conference, with Trump even personally pledging to treat Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve for the United States. Countless retail investors were fired up, believing that the bull market myth of the US government printing money to buy millions of bitcoins on the open market would come true next week, frantically opening full positions to buy the position.
So why is it that such historically disruptive policy benefits return to the legislative process in the legislature, yet not even show a trace of independent voting?
Because in Washington's harsh political reality, the Bitcoin strategic reserve doesn't even weigh as much as a scrap of paper. The Senate's core energy is now focused on the military budget, the National Defense Authorization Act, and foreign sanctions—the real agenda of the state apparatus—leaving no time for a vote on the so-called Strategic Reserve Bill.
Since strategic reserves are just a vote show to secure election sponsorship, why is the core bill that was highly anticipated and the SEC's regulatory boundaries—the CLARITY Act—now facing a crisis of infestation?
Because the doors to the summer recess of Congress are about to shut heavily on August 8. There are only a few days left for MPs to argue, and this major draft concerning the crypto industry's basic law is still repeatedly shirking amidst the mountain of garbage on Congress's agenda. Before the recess on August 8, it is highly likely that it will not even be discussed and will have to be postponed indefinitely once again.
Once the recess bell rings on August 8, Congress will enter a power vacuum lasting several weeks. What kind of fatal pull will this have on crypto market pricing in August?
This means that throughout August, the market will face the longest and most quiet period of favorable policy vacuum.
Those high-leverage bulls who rushed in to push policy implementation or gamble on strategic reserves will find themselves completely losing their grip in the coming month. When rate cut expectations are suppressed by hawkish factions, when bill dividends turn into fantasy, fragile levers in the market are repeatedly washed out by market makers amid depleted liquidity.
The day before yesterday, watching lawmakers in the livestream crying out that Bitcoin would save America, my own spot account was almost ignited by this emotion, and I wanted to open contracts and leverage it. But I was scared of the old policy bubbles and went overnight to check the official U.S. Senate work schedule.
The moment I saw the August 8 recess approaching and the Strategic Reserve Act not even entering the backlog, I forcibly cleared all my leveraged long positions.
What politicians need is to loudly rally on stage to raise campaign funds for crypto whales, while major shareholders and retail investors who take it seriously offstage, betting on policy floods at this critical juncture is tantamount to paying the ticket for this political double act.
So for the next week, don't listen to any politicians' statements on social media; focus on the final moves before the Senate officially adjourns on August 8. If the CLARITY Act still cannot break through before the recess, we must lock our defenses throughout August and never touch any policy expectations.
#白宫回应将决定CLARITY法案下周能否投票 Crowding and Crowding List
On one hand, the more expensive the position, the more you have to ask: does it bring trends, or only risk?
$MMT Current rate -0.2517%, closing -0.739% in the past 24 hours, at the 0th percentile of the most recent sample. The decline is accompanied by a drop in OI, mainly characterized by the exit of old positions rather than new positions continuing to suppress prices. The reduction in positions has already occurred; the next step is to see if the price can stabilize after the position contraction.
$SNXX Current rate +0.0718%, closed in the past 24 hours +0.195%, at the 80th percentile of the most recent sample. Within 15 minutes, prices rose and positions increased, with new leveraged funds participating in this uptrend. The rate has not reached the historical extreme level of the same coin; currently, it is read according to the price structure and does not add crowding labels.
$SKHYNIX Current rate -0.0228%, closed in the past 24 hours -0.575%, at the 17th percentile of the most recent sample. Price positions are rising in the same direction, and this volatility is driven by new positions, not pure reduction. Prices and OI rose in tandem, while rates remained negative, making this misalignment more sensitive to bears.#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
"Korean Stocks Soar 14% in One Day, Storage Sector Receives Synergistic Boost"
I have been closely monitoring the global memory industry chain all day, combining the synergy between US storage stocks and Japanese and Korean chip companies to break down the logic behind this extreme surge in the Korean stock market and its impact on SanDisk and Micron.
South Korea's KOSPI index has shown an extreme reversal, plunging 17% over the previous three trading days, with a single-day intraday surge of 14%, marking the largest single-day gain in the country's stock market's history.
The core drivers behind the rally were Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, two major storage giants. SK Hynix surged 28% in early trading, while Samsung surged 26%, directly driving a strong rebound across the entire index.
There are three key drivers behind this surge in the market.
First, the finance minister sent a major signal of increased holdings: the chairman of SK Group personally spent 4.8 billion won to buy his own SK Hynix shares, with major shareholders providing real money to buy in at the bottom, greatly easing market panic and selling sentiment, and providing solid support for the long-declining storage leader.
Secondly, overnight, the US storage sector rebounded collectively, and the logic of rigid chip demand driven by continuous AI computing power expansion was once again recognized by investors. Upstream and downstream market trends drove each other, and Japanese and Korean storage companies followed suit.
Finally, the Bank of Korea intervened in selling the dollar to intervene in the exchange rate, causing the won to appreciate sharply by 2%. The momentum of domestic foreign capital flight was curbed, and a large influx of returning funds poured into the stock market to buy at the bottom in tech heavyweights.
The sharp amplification of market volatility stems from the large number of leveraged trading products in South Korea. During the recent decline, margin trading collectively liquidated positions, and during the rebound, margin funds rushed in to go long, amplifying the price fluctuations exponentially. Subsequent regulatory tightening of leveraged tools will likely erase this extreme volatility.
Looking at the overall storage sector, which we often follow, the sharp rallies of Samsung and SK Hynix, the two industry giants, will directly benefit the overall prosperity of the flash memory industry chain.
These two are the world's core suppliers of NAND and DRAM chips. Their strong stock price recovery indicates that capital generally agrees that the upward storage cycle will continue. Upstream price increases are stable, and SanDisk focuses on enterprise-grade SSD flash products, with all orders built by cloud vendors' computing power. Naturally, they will continue to benefit from the industry's recovery dividends, giving them more confidence for a volatile rebound.
However, this wave of market activity should be viewed rationally; it is more of a recovery and rebound after an oversold price, not a new wave of trend-initiating action.
The 30-year Treasury yield remains at a nineteen-year high, and the overall valuation ceiling for global risk assets has not been opened. After a short-term upward pulse, the market is expected to return to a range-bound rhythm.
Whether you are investing in US storage stocks like SanDisk or participating in cryptocurrency trading, it is still advisable to control positions and trade swing trades, rather than heavily betting on a one-sided sustained rise.🟢 The market signals are very strong; this time it almost replicates the rhythm of the previous round of the "influencer trend script." Last time, ETH stopped falling near 1847 and then recovered all the way to 1982; This time, the bottom also fell at 1847.56, and I took a long position again at 1866.5. The position structure is almost identical, but I don't assume the outcome will be the same. History can be referenced, not superstition.
📉 Currently, the MA10 and MA20 are still putting pressure above the major cycle, which at best has only completed the "stopping the decline" movement; true "bullish strengthening" has yet to appear. In the last round, I entered at 1921 and finally left at 1894.81, losing 1343U. Looking back, the problem was that I mistook "stabilization" for a "reversal," entered too early, and had too many fantasies. Although this time I lost a 100x leverage order, the processing speed was noticeably faster, and the positions I needed to take were handled without any delays.
⚡️ The next approach is simple: if the 1875 level cannot sustain a recovery, I will first reduce my position and wait and see; Only by regaining a foothold at 1890 will we look at the performance around 1915. And 1858 is my defensive bottom line. If this spot falls and 1847 is breached, then this judgment is completely invalidated—I won't hold it head-on.
🧭 Historical trends can tell me "what is worth doing," but they cannot determine "when I should admit my mistake." In the end, the trade isn't about predictions, but about admitting mistakes quickly and re-entering the market.
📊 On the macro front, PCE fell month-on-month, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, and inflationary pressures marginally eased; Although Amazon's earnings guidance came in below expectations, the stock price actually did soTonight's main financial thread is clear
Risk assets have cooled down
BTC fell below 63,000
to a two-week low
Coinbase's earnings report is not strong enough
Market optimism about crypto is fading
On the US side, however, it took a breather of improvement
Amazon holds up AI sentiment
It closed higher with U.S. stocks
But the problem didn't go away
Long-term US Treasury yields are still weighing down the market
Oil prices are also fluctuating at high levels
This is not an ideal environment for both tech stocks and crypto
Chinese concept electric vehicles are a bit lively
XPeng delivered 38,027 vehicles in July
NIO down 11% quarter-on-quarter
Funding is still very selective right now
Not all risk assets rise at the same time
AI leaders are taking over
Crypto is starting to be scrutinized
Weak Coins continue to lack liquidity
Tonight's words
The market is not without money
I just don't want to buy randomly
Only for market observation
Does not constitute investment advice $ETH $BTC $SNDK Come on, don't stop eating skewers—let's first check OKX's real-time data. $LAT This round is +20.98%, with volume reaching 0.8B. Putting it on tonight's plate is as eye-catching as someone suddenly ordering ten skewers of kidney at a barbecue stall. Next to it, $DUCK also rose +13.17%, with the same volume of 0.8B. Are these two guys here tonight to grab the spotlight? As for $ROBO -16.54% and $CARDS -13.33%, one at 0.1B and one at 0.0B, the volume has shrunk like my wallet. The green pillar drawn on the market app looks even worse than the drunken buddy at the next table. Let's start with $LAT. I know this coin well. The last time it rallied was in late autumn last year, when the whole market was like an eggplant hit by frost, except for this coin, which went three days straight with volume surging against the trend, bouncing up like a cat with its tail stepped on. Back then, the volume was even stronger than it is now, surging to 0.9B, and the price doubled instantly. But what happened? Three days later, his true nature was revealed, and he caught a bunch of high-priced buyers, and the whole community was cursing him as a 'trash dog farm.' Today's +20.98% but volume is only 0.8B, not as crazy as it was back then. What does that mean? Either the dog dealers changed their tactics, trying to play the underdog slowly and grind down, or a wave of new retail investors really couldn't hold back and rushed in. Let me tell you, this kind of historical reenactment is the most insidious. Last time it was quick pull and smash; if this time it switches to pulling and resting a bit, you have to be careful not to play a "boiling frog" game with you. Looking at $DUCK, +13.17%, volume is flat with $LAT at 0.8B, which is interesting. I remember the last time $DUCK rose in sync with another coin, it was during the coin listing effect on a certain exchange. At that time, rumors circulated that a market maker team took money from two project teams and engaged in a "double act," pulling one side and the other, ending up with retail investors getting slapped on both sides. Given today's distribution of volume, it's hard not to suspect that another 'nesting doll' scenario is happening. Look at the frightening $ROBO and $CARDS stocks—one dropped 16% with decent volume, the other dropped 13% with almost zero volume. This isn't a normal pullback; it's clearly funds abandoning their positions to protect the leader, pulling all liquidity into $LAT and $DUCK. This "one declines and the other rises" pattern historically signals a small-scale capital maneuvering game; playing well is an opportunity, playing poorly is a stage for the cultivation of the buyer. Let's share some insider gossip. $LAT This project team is called the "indestructible cockroach" by insiders. Two years ago, it was exploited by hackers due to a contract loophole, and last year it was exposed for a "multiple account vote rigging" scandal due to community governance voting. It should have been dead long ago, but whenever the market stirred, it always managed to jump out and make its presence known. I heard this rally was connected to a certain major Korean conglomerate, who especially love to speculate on these "low-valuation zombie coins." Their tactic is to test the market with small orders first, wait for market sentiment to pick up, and then make a big move to create a miracle. Look at today's volume: 0.8B is not too big, not too small, just right at a key point, almost exactly the same volume as last year's pre-launch wave. History does not simply repeat itself, but always follows the same rhyme; this phrase fits $LAT and is practically tailor-made. But then again, looking only at volume and not portfolio structure is just playing tricks. Before the last $LAT pull, on-chain data showed that the top ten addresses held 78% of holdings, a typical "highly controlled" state, where scaling was as easy as flipping from one hand to the other GRVT Yesterday's Long Review: Structural Recovery After Sharp Sell-Off
The focus of yesterday's long $GRVT was not chasing a single listing news or just guessing the direction based on OI, but rather that after the market completed a round of concentrated selling in the early stages of listing, prices began to stabilize and recover key ranges, and liquidity catalysts on the exchange side happened to appear simultaneously.
From the market perspective, after GRVT was listed on July 30, it briefly reached $0.3056, then quickly dropped to $0.2246. This decline released the selling pressure from early buying, airdrop tokens, and capital to take over the IPO, and also cleared out a batch of leveraged long positions.
By July 31, the price did not continue to break lows; instead, it repeatedly changed hands between $0.239 and $0.25, then rebounded above $0.25, reaching an intraday high of $0.2926. Based on the intraday low, the rebound is about 22.4%.
This was the most important foundation for yesterday's bullish trade: the low did not continue to decline, and the market regained acceptance above $0.25.
The core of the long position: $0.25 was lost and recovered
Yesterday's truly comfortable entry was not at $0.29, but after the price pulled back to $0.239 to $0.25, it failed to break below and regained the $0.25 level.
For newly listed tokens, the first sharp drop is not uncommon. What is truly worth watching is whether, after selling pressure is released, the price can form new support at low levels.
The structure of GRVT yesterday can roughly be divided into four zones:
* $0.224 to $0.239: The deep discount zone after listing, also the location of the first round of liquidity cleanup.
* $0.249 to $0.261: A range where the structure has strengthened again; only after stabilizing will there be more reasonable conditions for trying to buy long.
* $0.272 to $0.281: Bullish acceleration zone, suitable for position observation, not suitable for heavy positions after a rapid rally.
* $0.286 to $0.293: Yesterday's high supply zone, where early shares and short-term profit-taking are likely to be realized.
The price encountered significant selling pressure near $0.2926, then retreated to around $0.26, proving that chasing long positions at high levels is much less cost-effective than entering after recovering from lows.
Yesterday's trading logic was clear: it was structural recovery after a sharp sell-off at listing, not a bet on the price moving directly from $0.29 into the second main rally.
OI can confirm direction, but it cannot replace the board
The OI section needs to be explained more rigorously.
Currently, there is no reliable hourly data to accurately reconstruct yesterday's changes in GRVT's OI, so it is not possible to directly conclude how much OI has increased or attribute the entire rise to new leveraged funds.
What is confirmed is that there was already a certain degree of contract participation and liquidation activity in the market yesterday, indicating that this market was not entirely driven by spot prices. However, OI is more suitable as a confirmation signal in this trade rather than as the initial reason for opening a position.
If prices rise and OI increases during trading, it indicates new capital entering the market to drive growth, indicating a relatively healthy bullish structure; If prices rise but OI continues to decline, it may mainly come from short covering. A rebound is still possible, but continuity needs to be assessed conservatively.
What is even more concerning is that although the OI rose rapidly, the price has consistently failed to break through the $0.286 to $0.293 range. This usually means leveraged long positions are starting to crowd, and the spot selling pressure above hasn't been truly absorbed. Once prices weaken, it easily leads to concentrated liquidation by bulls.
Therefore, the more complete long condition for yesterday should be: the price recovers to $0.25, continues to support after a pullback, OI does not shrink significantly, and funding rates remain within an acceptable range.
Price structure ranks first, and OI is only responsible for increasing the win rate.
Token listings and liquidity catalysts amplified the recovery rally
Yesterday, GRVT also served as a catalyst on the exchange side.
These reports alone may not be enough to support sustained gains. After new coins are listed on more exchanges, increased selling pressure may arise due to increased circulation channels.
But when the catalyst occurs when prices stop breaking new lows and low-level chips start to change hands, the significance changes. The addition of trading portals, KRW trading pairs, and trading activities will prompt the market to reassess short-term liquidity and price discovery efficiency.
On-chain holdings also show that a significant proportion of GRVT's liquid tokens are concentrated in exchanges, cross-chain bridges, and liquidity pools. The dominant force in short-term pricing is therefore more focused on exchange depth, market-making capital, and new trading demand, rather than buying in a single wallet.
Yesterday's rally was essentially a result of structural recovery at low levels combined with liquidity catalysts, with both working together to significantly accelerate the rebound.
Failure conditions
Yesterday you could go long, but that doesn't mean every position is worth continuing to be long.
The most direct breakdown for this trade is $0.25. If the price falls back below this range and fails to recover for a long time, it would mean yesterday's structural breakout may only be a brief short squeeze.
If it falls below $0.239 further, the second pullback low formed on July 31 will also be breached, basically ending the short-term bullish logic.
On the upper side, attention should be paid between 0.286 and 0.293 USD. If the price fails to break through after multiple volume tests, it means early shares continue to use liquidity to sell off. Even if OI rises at this point, it may not necessarily be bullish; instead, it may indicate that buying long positions is becoming more concentrated.
Several risks to watch out for include:
* Price fell below $0.25, failed to reclaim the structure yesterday;
* Broke below $0.239, breaking the intraday low and support zone;
* OI rises rapidly, but prices remain stuck in high supply zones;
* Funding rates are overheated, raising both the cost of long positions and liquidation risks;
* The exchange generates new liquidity as export sell-offs, not new buying orders. #日元干预战升级，美方准备介入
Biden's cheat sheet exposed: Is liquidity in US stocks and crypto about to change?
The biggest event over the weekend wasn't earnings or data, but the Treasury Secretary Biden's "to-do list" on the table being photographed: buy 5-10 billion yen.
Seemingly insignificant, it actually broke the last barrier — this is the first time in nearly 30 years that the US has directly intervened to buy yen, not just verbal warnings, but real cash intervention.
Don't just look at the exchange rate when considering the impact on dollar assets. The yen's logic has changed, and the risk-reward ratio of the entire arbitrage trade needs to be recalculated.
In the past two years, global leveraged players have been borrowing yen at almost zero cost to buy US stocks and Bitcoin. Behind this AI bull market, yen arbitrage funds are a hidden thread. Now, with US-Japan joint intervention + the Bank of Japan maintaining a 1% interest rate but clearly hawkish, the cost of this hidden thread is rising rapidly.
In the short term, a stronger yen is bearish for US stocks and crypto liquidity. Historically, referring to August 2024, the yen's sharp rise directly triggered a chain liquidation of leveraged positions, causing BTC and the Nasdaq to fall simultaneously. This time is more serious because it's not Japan acting alone; the US is backing it with ammunition.
Operationally, watch two things closely: whether USD/JPY can hold the 157-158 intervention line, and the Bank of Japan's stance on the next rate hike. If the yen doesn't retreat, leveraged funds will have to continue deleveraging, with high-valuation tech stocks and BTC taking the brunt. $QQQ #谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底，换取两成股权
Google doesn't pay 15 billion in cash but secures 20% equity in the AI data center — this is the real underlying play in this AI bull market
The list uncovered by the Wall Street Journal a few days ago is much more exciting than it looks on the surface:
Morgan Stanley leads a $15 billion loan to Nexus Data Centers to build an AI campus for Anthropic in Hubbard, Texas (including a 1.6GW natural gas self-supplied power plant).
Google doesn't put up money to be a major shareholder, it only does one thing — guarantees Anthropic's data center rent and electricity payment defaults, capped at the bank's minimum required guarantee amount.
The consideration? About 20% equity in the data center + power plant project.
Breaking it down into three layers of meaning:
1. Google uses a "letter of guarantee" instead of "cash investment," keeping its balance sheet intact while locking in the TPU chip shipment scenario (the campus runs Google×Broadcom customized TPU);
2. Anthropic shifts from "renting cloud" to "becoming the sub-landlord," with AI startups starting to take on heavy assets in reverse;
3. Chip manufacturer (Broadcom) + large model makers (Google/Anthropic) + banking consortium create a "credit swap style circular financing" — no one bears all the risk, but the pot keeps growing.
From a crypto perspective, it becomes clearer:
The financing structure of AI infrastructure is increasingly resembling RWA + SPV + compute power staking. In the future, what can be tokenized on-chain won't just be BTC compute power, but also "data center cash flow guaranteed by Google." Which assets will catch this narrative? Decentralized compute power (like AKASH, IO), on-chain power protocols, and even L1s with AI concepts could be repriced by capital in the next round.
But conversely, this "big company guarantee and backstop" model means that if an AI startup burns out of money, the chain reaction defaults are not as simple as retail liquidations — the gray rhino of AI infrastructure hides in the financial report notes.#EarningsObserver: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet the stock price rises 9%
$AMZN Spending 220 billion, stock price rises 15%: Why is Amazon different?
Last night Amazon surged nearly 15%, directly slapping the face of the market's bearish capital expenditure view. With the same cash outlay, Google raised spending but fell 7%, Meta spent money but dropped 8%, so why did Amazon rise? The difference is just one thing—whether you can see the money coming back after spending it.
First, let's talk about the increase. Annual capital expenditure was raised from 200 billion to 220 billion, with 54.2 billion spent in a single quarter, and free cash flow directly turned negative 7.6 billion.
The numbers look scary, but the market is not panicking this time because AWS provided the answer—Q2 revenue was 42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters. AI business annualized revenue exceeded 25 billion, and self-developed Trainium chips also surpassed 25 billion annualized, all with triple-digit growth.
How will spending evolve from 2026 to 2027? The four giants combined will approach 800 billion in 2026, and 2027 will only be higher.
Jassy's exact words: 220 billion in 2026 won't be enough, demand in 2027 will be just as strong, and demand for 2028 is already lined up. Morgan Stanley has already forecasted the top five cloud providers' 2027 spending to reach 1.2 trillion.
What impact does the increased capital expenditure have on the company's stock price and the semiconductor sector?
Amazon's rise is because the market finally sees the ROI—AWS has a backlog of orders worth 496 billion, OpenAI and Anthropic have locked in Trainium capacity, and servers pay back in less than 3 years.
On the semiconductor side, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 8% in a single day, with Micron and SanDisk rising over 13%. Money spent benefits the entire chain of equipment, storage, and chips.
The market isn't afraid of spending money; it's afraid of spending without any response. This time Amazon gave a loud response. 8 smart money wallets just flipped on $CARDS. chart's dead flat, +0.1% on the week, nothing to see if you're just watching candles.
these same wallets were net sellers for the past 30 days, offloaded $452K worth. now it's $51K net bought over the past 7 days. that's a fresh change of mind, not a long held stance.
one tracked wallet alone put in $190K this week. but the last hour on the tape flipped the other way, sells beating buys $17K to $6K.
week says load, hour says sell. 8 wallets agreeing doesn't make them right. NFA 👀#谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底，换取两成股权
The AI computing power arms race welcomes a brand-new business model, with Google landing a major deal: providing performance guarantees for the debt of Anthropic's supporting data center project in exchange for 20% equity in the project. This approach is rewriting the global capital rules for computing power expansion.
The project financing scale is huge, and banks were originally wary due to high AI infrastructure investment and strong asset specificity, resulting in low willingness to lend. Google uses its own high credit rating to guarantee, promising to cover rent and electricity payments in case of tenant default, successfully leveraging low-cost loans.
Google does not need to build data centers with full cash upfront, only assuming contingent liabilities; on one hand, locking in long-term deployment scenarios for TPU chips, and on the other, obtaining project equity to share long-term profits. This light model seizes computing power resources, directly competing with Nvidia's customer financing strategy.
AI track competition has upgraded from "burning money to buy chips" to a credit game.
In the past, it was a competition of R&D and capital expenditure; now, giants start using balance sheets and credit endorsements to win customers. Google is fully promoting TPU, trying to break Nvidia's GPU ecosystem monopoly.
Once this model is continuously replicated and computing power supply keeps expanding, it will drive demand expectations in the semiconductor and storage industry chains, boosting overall risk appetite in the short term.
Hidden tail risks cannot be ignored.
Guarantees are off-balance-sheet liabilities and will not directly appear on the balance sheet. If subsequent AI demand falls short of expectations and tenants default massively, potential repayment pressure will become concentrated.
The market needs to reprice the contingent risk exposure of tech giants. In a high-interest-rate environment, such implicit liabilities can easily trigger funding concerns.
My independent view: Long-term positive signal: Giants continuously increase investment in computing power infrastructure, proving the AI industry investment cycle is not over, and the computing power track's long-term narrative is solid.
Avoid excessive optimism: The news is an industry-level catalyst and is unlikely to independently drive a sustained market rally. Risk assets ultimately remain subject to US Treasury yields, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies.
The AI positive pulse rally has limited sustainability; do not chase related themes blindly. Follow two major signals going forward: more tech giants imitating this model, and whether AI companies' revenues can match massive capital investments. In just one week,
USDC net redemptions amounted to about $1.6 billion,
USDT net redemptions amounted to about $900 million.
A total of $2.5 billion in stablecoins exited.
This is not a position reroll,
This means funds are directly leaving the market.
After the FOMC hawks,
Institutions would rather buy US Treasuries with yields close to 5%,
Nor do they want to continue holding interest-free stablecoins.
Meanwhile,
ETF inflows are slowing,
Treasury company financing cools down.
The two largest incremental capital machines,
Everyone started to hit the brakes.
Next,
The market isn't about stories,
It's about whose cash flow is stronger.
BTC may be entering a true phase of stock competition.Analysis of High Volatility in the US AI Storage Sector: The Industry and Capital Logic Behind SanDisk's Sharp Volatility
In July 2026, U.S. storage leader SanDisk experienced extreme volatility, with huge price swings in the short term. This rollercoaster trend is the result of the supply-demand imbalance between AI storage, capital competition, and valuation logic shifts.
I. Market Review
In 2025, benefiting from the explosive demand for AI storage, SanDisk's stock price surged sharply. Entering the June 2026 high, there will be a pullback, followed by frequent sharp rises and falls in July.
Market essence: The market repeatedly wavers between two expectations: "long-term AI demand is positive" and "short-term storage supply pressure."
2. Three Core Drivers
1. Fundamentals: Long-term growth coexists with cyclical pressures
AI large models continue to drive demand for high-speed storage, and long-term growth space is certain. However, earlier expansions released new capacity, putting pressure on consumer-grade storage prices. Cloud customers are watching the procurement pace, while corporate revenue growth slows and expectations keep changing.
2. Amplifying capital structure volatility
A high proportion of quantitative trading can easily drive one-sided market trends; A large amount of leveraged funds flowing in and out, with a decline triggering margin liquidation, and a rebound attracting capital to replenish funds. Institutional opinions are highly divided, and the stock price lacks stable support and support.
3. Shift in valuation logic
Previously, the market viewed SanDisk as a high-growth AI track and gave it a high valuation. As cyclical risks emerged, funds began to price using cyclical stock standards. Any slight change in earnings guidance causes valuations to adjust rapidly.
3. Insights from the Trading Perspective
1. Ordinary investors need to distinguish between short-term volatility and medium- to long-term trends. Most of the sharp rises and falls in a single day are capital games and cannot be directly equated with fundamental reversal. Focus on key support and resistance ranges.
2. Ordinary investors should prioritize tracking earnings quality. The core focus is on two key indicators: AI business revenue proportion and gross margin, to assess the resilience of corporate fundamentals.
3. The sector is highly volatile; ordinary investors should avoid heavy positions to chase rallies. For the long term, if you are optimistic about the sector, you can use a combination of bottom positions and hedging tools to control risk.
4. Summary
The long-term demand logic for AI storage remains intact, but short-term industry cycles and capital behaviors will continue to cause sharp fluctuations.
Rather than chasing short-term ups and downs, ordinary investors should continuously track a company's profitability realization ability. $SNDK August US Stock Market AI Preview: The Focus Is Only One—NVIDIA's Earnings Will Decide AI's Future
The just-passed July earnings season has already covered all the negatives and positives. In the next three weeks of August, there are almost no major catalysts that could cause significant negative shocks. The only decisive factor is NVIDIA's Q2 earnings report after the market close on 8/26.
In July—Microsoft and Amazon were rewarded for clearly explaining CapEx and real demand; Meta and Alphabet failed to convince the market and took a hit for trillion-level AI infrastructure spending. The divergence has been priced in, and the shoe has basically dropped.
The August calendar is basically empty. The storage dual earnings reports on 8/5 (SanDisk, WDC) represent structural moves, not broad market variables; the nonfarm payrolls on 8/7 and CPI on 8/12 are macro disturbances, not falsification points for the AI narrative.
The only thing that will truly reprice the entire AI trade is NVIDIA's earnings.
So my judgment is:
The first half of August will be a period of sentiment repair and digestion. Bears lack new ammunition, and the oversold computing power/storage themes have a breathing window; but don't mistake this rebound for a trend. All positions and expectations should converge toward 8/26. If NVIDIA's earnings confirm the thesis, the July sell-off was a mistake; if falsified, that will open the real risk exposure.
The gap is not safety; it is giving you time to get on board or reduce positions. "Storage Cycles Rebound Across the Board, SanDisk's Stock Price Will Experience Triple Upward Momentum"
Recently, I've been monitoring the spot prices of flash storage and cloud vendor purchase orders every day, and in light of the current overall recovery pace of the storage industry, I'll be straightforward about the real benefits SanDisk brings to the market as a warming up.
The most direct sign is that the company's revenue and profits will continue to rise.
The overall NAND flash chip price has stabilized and rebounded for several consecutive months, with enterprise-grade SSDs for AI servers maintaining high premiums. SanDisk focuses on high-end cloud flash products and has strong bargaining power.
Additionally, they secured long-term supply orders with Amazon and Microsoft early on, with total orders exceeding $42 billion. Cloud giants continuously expand computing data centers and increase flash memory purchases every month. Each quarter's financial reports steadily increase revenue and gross margin.
As earnings data continues to materialize, institutions will keep raising their target valuations, naturally giving stock prices a solid upward foundation.
Second, an upward industry boom will completely dispel market concerns about overcapacity, and valuation bubbles will gradually be digested and filled.
The sharp pullback in stock prices recently was largely due to investors' fear that after major manufacturers expand production, flash memory supply will resurge, chip prices will cut and squeeze profits.
Now, with demand continuing to surge and inventory clearing, the supply-demand balance remains tight for a long time, and capital is willing to offer higher P/E ratios to storage growth stocks.
Compared to Micron, SanDisk has much higher elasticity; during rallies, its gains often outpace peers by a wide margin, offering more room for short-term arbitrage.
The third major benefit is the effect of capital clustering in the track, with large amounts of off-exchange incremental funds flowing into the storage sector.
AI computing power is currently one of the few strong main themes in the US stock market. As long as the memory cycle warms up and safe-haven funds gradually divert from the bond market, the memory chip sector will be the first choice to focus on the market.
Amazon just raised its annual capital expenditure to $220 billion and will continue to stock up and flash stock. The steady stream of positive news will repeatedly catalyze a rebound in SanDisk's stock price.
However, it is also necessary to recognize the hidden shortcomings. Currently, the 30-year Treasury yield remains at a nineteen-year high, and the high interest rate environment will limit the overall upside ceiling of growth stocks.
Moreover, in the second half of 2027, Samsung and SK Hynix will release new production capacity concentrated, bringing the storage upcycle to an end and causing the market to gradually decline.
From a practical perspective, the current industry recovery can support SanDisk to break out of a range-bound rebound, making it suitable for small positions to hold in batches to capture swing profits. Never hold heavy positions at high levels, and wait until capacity releases to take profits early and avoid giving back most of the gains.#财报观察员：Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet the stock price rises 9%
"Revenue guidance misses expectations, but Amazon surges 9%—what's behind it?"
I review the market daily, analyzing earnings reports of major US tech giants. Comparing the distinctly different trends of Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, I finally understand Wall Street's core criteria for selecting AI stocks.
Amazon's Q2 earnings on paper are actually very impressive: total revenue exceeded $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year; its AWS cloud business revenue reached $42.2 billion, a 37% growth hitting a nearly four-year high; operating profit surged 64%, and cloud business profit margin steadily rose to 39.4%.
However, the company's Q3 revenue guidance range of $197 billion to $202 billion fell short of market expectations. Normally, under US stock market rules, weaker forward guidance would lead to a stock price drop, but this time the stock surged 9% after hours. The root cause lies in the $220 billion full-year capital expenditure plan.
Management raised the budget for computing power investment, meaning a large-scale purchase of flash memory and RAM hardware to build AI server clusters is coming. AWS cloud computing capacity will continue to expand. The demand increase driven by AI is tangible and visible. Investors care less about a slight shortfall in short-term revenue and focus more on the long-term benefits of computing power layout.
Now, the three leading tech companies have adopted three different pricing models: Microsoft steadily realizes profits through Azure cloud revenue, following a cautious and grounded path with the most solid valuation; Meta tells stories based on its future AI ecosystem vision, resulting in the most volatile stock price; Amazon invests in expanding computing power while maintaining stable profits from cloud business, representing a balanced development approach.
All three continue to increase investment in cloud infrastructure, directly benefiting storage companies like Micron and SanDisk. The continuous procurement orders firmly support chip demand, making it difficult for the storage industry’s recovery cycle to end quickly.
However, the current 30-year US Treasury yield remains high, and elevated interest rates will continue to suppress growth stock valuations. Amazon’s recent rebound is a short-term sentiment-driven rally, unlikely to sustain a continuous upward trend.
Bitcoin has slightly recovered along with the Nasdaq but remains in a volatile pattern. Only when US Treasury yields fall and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates will various risk assets see a broad-based rally. At this stage, whether investing in storage stocks or cryptocurrencies, controlling position size and trading in waves is the safest approach. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $AMD retreated to $476 after surging $515, with the options market betting nearly 10% volatility on earnings. The earlier doubling of gains has already exhausted expectations ahead of schedule, and crowded positions mean risk appetite is easily influenced by sentiment. If data center revenue and GPU order guidance fail to deliver perfect results, the cashing out of hidden funds will directly trigger a drawdown. If overall liquidity in the chip sector improves more than expected, valuation pressure will be diluted by sentiment. Next, we need to observe the actual release of implied volatility in options on the night of the earnings report.
#"AI Stock God" fund clears positions, Micron rises over 15% #Coldcard漏洞发酵 in a single day, over 1,000 BTC stolenThe false breakout in 1982, combined with the Fed's knife pulled out. #30-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a 19-year high
😁 It's time again [Weekly Sharing]
Last week I said, 'If you hold 1840-1850, buy on the dip, target 1956.' The script was delivered out too thoroughly: Monday Auntie surged to 1982, KPIs exceeded expectations—then closed back to 1926. Fake breakouts, and those chasing higher stocks are once again left hanging on the mountaintop to be exposed to the wind. $ETH $BTC $SNDK
At the early Thursday morning FOMC, rates were held unchanged for the fifth time, but the details were alarming: 3 out of 12 members voted against and immediately called for a 25 basis point rate hike, marking the biggest division since 2016. Wash's harsh words: "This is not a pause," "The 2% inflation target is inelastic." U.S. stocks plunged immediately after hearing this, with the Dow down 2.2%; The 30-year Treasury yield soared to 5.2%, the highest since 2007. The crypto community pretended to be happy for a day (ETH +1.4%), but on Friday paid back principal and interest (-2.9%). The market is now seriously pricing in a "September rate hike"—60% probability. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price reversed to rise 9% #Strategy终止逢低买币, with a Q2 book loss of 8.2 billion
However, the bulls haven't given up: ETH hit the brakes for the third time on Friday between 1847-1850 (tested 7/24, 7/25, 7/31 unbroken), with the funding rate remaining neutral to cold, without a stomping down. BTC was a bit weaker, breaking through 62,500 on Friday, but fortunately closed and pulled back.
Next Monday's clear card: Friday night 8:30 PM nonfarm payrolls (expected 79K, previous 57K). Employment booming → Rising interest rate hike expectations → Hammered; Employment declines → breathe a sigh of relief and rebound.
Trading in three sentences: hold 1847-1850, light position and test long, stop loss below 1839; Don't hold on if it falls below 1800; if the structure breaks, run first; Before non-farm payrolls were implemented, the position was halved. The Fed has already pulled out its knife; don't reach out to catch it. 🚩🐵🐮🐮🐮🐮⛔️"US Treasury Yields Break Through, Risk Assets Should Not Aggressively Chase Higher Prices for Them"
I watch the Nasdaq, storage sector, and Bitcoin chart back and forth every day. The core signal in this chart is actually one sentence: the 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.27%, hitting a 19-year high. Once this level is broken, the pricing of many subsequent assets will be re-suppressed.
Right now, the market isn't lacking good news—it's short on cash. The Fed is still voicing hawkish views, oil prices are rising again, inflationary stickiness hasn't been completely eliminated, and funds prefer to buy long-term bonds first for stable returns rather than easily push stocks and cryptocurrency prices higher. AI giants like Microsoft and Amazon surged sharply recently, but once interest rates are raised, the market tends to shift from broad-based increases to differentiation. Only those with solid earnings can withstand valuation pressure.
On the storage side, the logic hasn't completely broken yet. Cloud vendors continue to expand computing power, and long-term demand for enterprise-level flash memory targets like Micron and SanDisk remains. But I have to be honest, if interest rates are too high, it will suppress valuations for long-term stocks, especially for stocks like SanDisk, which have large gains and volatility. Even if they rebound later, they're more likely to become structural rotations, and not all storage stocks can rise together.
Bitcoin now seems to follow the Nasdaq and risk appetite, without standalone major market moves. With US Treasury yields remaining high, institutional funds are unlikely to massively increase spot positions. BTC is likely to remain mostly volatile, and real trend opportunities will only open up once the Fed clearly shifts to rate cuts.
In the coming period, I won't recommend heavily investing in any elastic asset. AI computing power and storage are indeed the main themes, but before U.S. Treasury yields fall, market funds will be very selective, only buying the most certain earnings yields. In the short term, controlling positions and swing trading is more suitable; don't mistake volatility for reversals. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 Just reviewed Qualcomm's financial report, which basically faces the same "predicament" as Apple: companies not only fail to benefit from AI but instead increase demand and costs due to AI-driven growth, resulting in lower corporate profits
Although the financial report reported revenue exceeding expectations, profit margins are declining, with rising wafer costs leading to higher costs
In terms of market conditions, Qualcomm is actually more optimistic than Apple. Qualcomm executives said that the Chinese OEM phone business bottomed out in the third quarter, and the Chinese business may recover going forward. However, attention should be paid to the surge ≠ recovery, which can provide some support for Qualcomm's performance.
However, the business partnership with Apple has exceeded management's expectations for a decline, and Qualcomm needs to quickly find an alternative business to replace the assessment ODE demand, or it will further drag down the company
In AI, Qualcomm has begun to focus on automotive chips and data centers, and has already started making moves in AI.
Unfortunately, this quarter, the requirements for corporate financial reports have become even stricter, squeezing Qualcomm's profits. Although the AI sector is gaining momentum, it has yet to provide some support for corporate profits, leading to a drop in stock prices
Qualcomm's financial report basically proves one thing: the main theme of AI investment is further diverging. This is also the key focus of this quarter's earnings season following next week's reports from the seven giants. With AI structure differentiated, how can companies deliver satisfactory results?
Additionally, like Apple, Qualcomm's Chinese market has become the main drag on its current business, and corporate profit margins are being squeezed by tight AI supply chains. This is a pressure point for related business sectors in Q3-Q4 going forward.
Moreover, facing the impact of artificial intelligence in China, it means that, apart from leading AI companies, future profit margin pressures will be considerable! #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9% The Federal Reserve's latest rate decision has been fully reflected in crypto market pricing, with Bitcoin falling about 2.8% since the decision was announced—a relatively mild reaction. This is unsurprising when viewed from the perspective of historical market behavior—price reactions after historical FOMC meetings have shown a consistent pattern, which traders should closely monitor. Historical data provides us with a clear framework to understand what may happen in the coming days or even weeks, which is crucial for making informed trading decisions. Looking back at the past seven Federal Reserve meetings, we can observe a highly consistent pattern in Bitcoin's price response. Of these seven instances, six saw Bitcoin fall between 4% and 5% on average after interest rate decisions and subsequent press conferences. This historical precedent suggests that the current decline may not be over yet, and there may be more downside potential before the market finds support and begins to recover. This pattern deserves attention both statistically and psychologically. The market's reaction to interest rate decisions is often somewhat predictable, reflecting the macroeconomic dynamics driving asset prices. Higher interest rates typically lead to lower valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets rises relative to safe-haven assets like government bonds. This fundamental relationship explains why Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tend to be sold off after interest rate hikes or hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve. Based on historical patterns, the expected magnitude of the decline suggests we may see Bitcoin test the $60,000 to $61,000 range. ThisStop foolishly waiting for your altcoin to "rotate"—it might never come. This is one of the most important lessons that all cryptocurrency traders need to internalize in the current market environment. The biggest mistake many traders make is believing that every altcoin will eventually rotate and surge like in previous bull markets, but this assumption is extremely dangerous and could lead to significant gains or even losses. The current market structure is completely different from previous cycles. We have not experienced the traditional "alt season"—a market where all coins rally sharply regardless of fundamentals. We are witnessing a capital migration process, with smart money actively moving from one asset to another, driven by ever-changing narratives and market dynamics. This is not a sweeping wave that can carry all ships, but rather a selective process that rewards only specific assets while leaving others behind. Understanding this distinction is crucial for positioning yourself correctly in your current environment. The old script of "just buy any altcoin and wait for rotation to bring you profit" is no longer effective. The market has evolved, and traders must evolve accordingly; otherwise, they will end up holding positions that underperform the market and miss out on real opportunities. The days of indiscriminate buying in the altcoin market are over; instead, a more precise approach to operations has been adopted, requiring careful analysis and selective planning. The core insight is: smart money doesn't buy everything. Instead, they are concentrating funds among a few winners, while liquidity quietly withdraws from the rest of the assets. This capital concentration has a profound impact on traders' operational strategies. Instead of spreading your funds into a few groupsAfter SPCX fell below its issue price, investors may not have given up on Rocket and Starlink. They are withdrawing an unpaid $250 billion AI prepayment. $250 billion, $6.355 billion. - The previous figure is the valuation given to xAI when SpaceX acquired it. - The latter figure is the AI division's operating loss for 2025 disclosed in the prospectus. When SpaceX completed its acquisition of xAI in February, the two companies were priced at $1 trillion and $250 billion, respectively. The merged entity is valued at $1.25 trillion, with xAI accounting for about one-fifth of that. Most xAI shares are processed at a rate of 0.1433 SpaceX shares per share, with some eligible employees able to choose a cash consideration of $75.46 per share. Chart | SpaceX reports a valuation rising from $74 billion in 2021 to $1 trillion in 2026 when it merges with xAI. Valuation expansion is much faster than that of traditional aerospace companies. Source: Media reports, Reuters Graphics. This deal expands SpaceX's business boundaries. Investors are buying more than just rockets, Starlink, and government contracts. Each SPCX share also includes Grok, the X platform, a ground-based AI data center, and an expensive computing power expansion plan. Image | After xAI was merged, SpaceX was no longer just a rocket and satellite network company. Traditional aerospace assets and AI infrastructure are now being jointly borne by the same group of shareholders$SNDK Everyone, let me honestly share my experience with losses at SanDisk SNDK. This time, the drawdown was far greater than expected.
SNDK's recent performance has truly dealt a heavy blow to my account. This deep pullback in July caused huge unrealized losses. The positions I had invested at high levels had already dropped by more than half, and the pressure from these losses often kept me awake all night. Having witnessed its dozens of times increase this year and confident that the AI storage supercycle will continue to strengthen, it chose to hold a heavy position. Unexpectedly, the market trend suddenly shifted in July, with prices plunging sharply.
After experiencing losses and calmly reviewing the situation, let me share my objective judgment at the moment:
1. The fundamentals of the target have not deteriorated substantially
NAND flash demand remains strong, AI data centers continue to face supply gaps, companies hold large long-term supply orders, gross margins remain high, and financial reports consistently exceed market expectations. The tight supply-demand situation in storage has real support and is not merely thematic speculation.
2. Looking back, my trading mistakes were very prominent
• Taking chances during the sharp rally phase, failing to take profits in time and realize profits;
• At the beginning of the July downturn, there was still hope, no reduction or stop-loss plans implemented, and passive positions were taken;
• Extremely concentrated position allocation, ignoring the huge risks brought by volatility.
In the end, not only did most of the earlier profits recover, but the principal also suffered significant losses. The market has always been like this: when profiting in cycles, it's easy to become overconfident, and only after a round of declines does one face the harsh reality.
3. Personal observation approach for the market going forward
The single-day rebound of 26% on the 30th proves that the oversold range attracted funds to bottom-fish, indicating a short-term possibility of a market recovery. However, the medium-term direction will focus on early August financial reports and expectations for capital expenditure across the AI industry chain.
If the price can hold above the 1200–1300 range, there is still a chance for a recovery going forward; If it breaks out effectively again, it will likely require a long period of consolidation and bottoming.
Reflections after losses:
Heavily betting on a single stock inherently carries huge risks; even with solid track logic, it cannot avoid sudden sharp corrections. Subsequent trades must strictly follow stop-loss rules, maintain diversified positions, and keep idle cash flow on hand. In the long term, the AI storage sector remains optimistic, but short-term market sentiment and capital cycles bring about volatility that must not be underestimated.
Losses are a reality; admit your mistakes calmly, conduct thorough reviews, and adjust your mindset to seek new opportunities.
Friends who also hold SNDK can share their current situation: are they heavily invested and stuck, or are they taking advantage of the rebound to enter smoothly? Feel free to share independent ideas and avoid pitfalls together. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底, in exchange for a 20% stake "Clear Division of Three Market Segments: A Complete Overview of SanDisk's Subsequent Upward Decline Paths"
Every day, I watch the Nasdaq market to catch the market, keeping an eye on US Treasury yield fluctuations while tracking purchase orders from Microsoft and Amazon Web Services. Combining the target price levels set by major investment banks, I break down SanDisk's future trends in plain language.
Currently, this period is in a phase of consolidation and bottoming, and for the next month and a half, it will basically be stuck in the $1150 to $1450 range.
The 30-year Treasury yield remains at a nineteen-year high. Funds favor stable bond yields and are reluctant to aggressively invest in volatile growth stocks. Recently, the stock price fell nearly half from a high of $2,335, and the profit-taking accumulated at the high level has not been fully released. Every small rebound is met with selling pressure.
The release of the latest quarterly financial report on August 5 is the biggest turning point in the market recently. Goldman Sachs has pre-estimated that revenue and gross margin will continue to rise this quarter. With $42 billion in long-term supply contracts in hand, most of its capacity has long been locked in by cloud giants. As long as performance meets market expectations, the stock price will naturally climb above $1,500.
But if the growth rate fails to meet the target, all the previously hyped price gains will materialize, and the stock price will fall back to the $1,000 mark. During this period, it's only suitable for short-term swing trading, and holding heavy positions is unlikely to yield stable returns.
Once the Fed signals a rate cut, a second mid-term rebound will occur, roughly spanning the fourth quarter of this year through the first half of next year.
After the rate cuts took effect, U.S. Treasury yields gradually declined, overall market risk appetite warmed across the board, and capital will flow back into the AI semiconductor sector. Coupled with the widespread adoption of AI intelligent agents, demand for flash memory among major cloud servers continues to rise, and the tight supply of NAND chips is expected to last at least until mid-2027.
More than twenty Wall Street brokerages set an average target price of around $1,850, while optimistic institutions set a high range of $3,000. During this rally, SanDisk's market elasticity is much greater than Micron's, so its gains will outperform peers by a wide margin, making it the most suitable stage for mid-term positioning to capitalize on the gains during this period.
After entering the second half of 2027, the overall market will gradually shift toward a pullback under pressure.
After prolonged restraint by storage giants Samsung and SK Hynix, they will concentrate on releasing new flash memory capacity. Market supply will gradually shift from tight to loose, and the chip price hike cycle will come to an end. The drop in product prices will directly squeeze SanDisk's profit margins.
Moreover, the stock price had risen excessively over the past two years, accumulating a huge valuation bubble. Even if the company has long-term orders as a safety net, the stock price will enter a volatile downward channel, making it difficult to renew the historical high set earlier.
Based on my recent trading experience with storage stocks, in the short term, avoid rushing to bottom-fish or betting on a reversal. It's prudent to wait for the August earnings before setting a direction. For the medium term, you must tie your strategy to the Fed's rate cut point; for the long term, anticipate the capacity release cycle and exit in time. Keep in mind that this stock is highly volatile and is not suitable for all-in trading at any stage. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks SpaceX earnings report approaching: Surge or sell-off? Will the unlocking window trigger panic selling?
As SpaceX is about to release its latest financial data, market divides continue to widen. Many investors have begun to ponder two core questions: will this earnings report drive the stock price to an upward breakout, or will it trigger a sharp correction? Combined with the upcoming stock unlocking cycle, will the market experience large-scale panic selling?
Many people simply believe that unlocking means a sharp drop. This logic might work for ordinary listed companies, but it shouldn't be directly applied to SpaceX. Let's first clarify two core variables: financial fundamentals and the behavior of unlocked funds.
1. Earnings reports determine the medium-term direction; sentiment can only affect short-term fluctuations
The fundamental factor determining medium- to long-term trends is always the operating expectations conveyed by financial reports; unlocking is only a short-term disturbance.
The market is currently focusing on several key data sets: Starlink revenue growth, Starship R&D capital expenditure, gross margin level, free cash flow gap, and commercial launch order reserves.
1. If the financial report shows: Starlink user growth exceeds expectations, service gross margin continues to improve, launch business generates steady revenue, and capital expenditures are controllable. Even when facing the lock-up, funds will choose to take over, and the selling pressure from the unlock is easily absorbed by the bulls, making the market easier to rise than fall.
2. If the financial report reveals hidden risks: Starlink revenue growth without profit growth, continued large cash burns, cash flow consumption faster than market estimates, and Starship project progress slower than expected. Then the unlocking would become the trigger, causing early shareholders who had been waiting to see off the market en masse, triggering a phased sell-off.
Unlike traditional tech companies, SpaceX supports both aerospace infrastructure and satellite internet, with market pricing heavily relying on long-term stories. If the earnings report weakens long-term earnings expectations, valuations will shrink rapidly.
2. Unlocking does not mean mindless selling; you need to distinguish the holder structure
The unlockdown panic essentially stems from low-cost early-stage investors realizing their returns, but whether to sell depends on the capital's nature:
Part of this is long-term financial and industrial capital, optimistic about the space economy in the long run, and will not sell in concentrated short periods;
The other part consists of early-stage angel investors and employee stock ownership, whose holding costs are extremely low and there is a strong demand for cash in—this is the source of potential selling pressure.
At the same time, a key point to note is that SpaceX's secondary market circulation is not sufficient. If there is concentrated selling, short-term liquidity will be insufficient, easily amplifying volatility; But conversely, once long-term funds are optimistic about the sector, they can quickly absorb selling pressure.
Don't fall into a one-sided mindset: unlocking does not necessarily mean a decline, it only increases volatility. Unlocking during a rally often brings negative news; Unlocking during a downtrend will lead to amplified corrections.
3. Market Prediction Two Scenarios
Scenario 1: Financial fundamentals meet or even exceed expectations
Positive news suppresses negative unlocking issues. Even if there is a small short-term sell-off, it will still be taken over by funds optimistic about long-term value. Market attention will quickly focus on Starlink commercialization and Starship's future space, with panic caused by the unlocking quickly fading and a recovery rally emerging from the market.
Scenario 2: Financial data falls short of expectations
Double negative factors resonate. Weak fundamentals combined with the unlocking window have spread pessimism. Early shareholders seized the rebound window to concentrate their cash-out, which easily triggered a phased pullback.
4. Final Core Conclusion
Do not view the lifting of restrictions in isolation. The unlocking is only a catalyst; the fundamentals of financial reports are the real foundation of the market.
If operating data continues to verify commercialization logic, the sell-off caused by the unlocking is only a short-term episode; Once fundamentals crack appear, unlocking becomes an amplifier of declines.
For traders, there is no need to pre-predict ups and downs. Wait for the core financial data to be released before observing the real inflow and outflow behavior of funds in the unlocking window. Before news materializes, over-betting on one-sided market moves requires bearing extremely high uncertainty risks. $XSPCX #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks two controversies This bear market has been extremely dull, and the only catalyst worth watching is whether the bill can pass.
If the White House does not provide substantial support before the recess, Bitcoin is very likely to hit its final bottom in Q4. Currently, the bill is stuck in the ethics clause, and the market predicts that the probability of passage within the year is less than 28%.
If the bill is postponed, Bitcoin is very likely to fall below previous lows and complete capitulation sell-offs, which perfectly confirms the four-year cycle pattern. This final drop can wash away the remaining leverage, completely clearing out the market—this is an excellent proactive buying opportunity.
I don't predict the lowest point, keeping half my funds for bottom-fishing and the other half for small regular investments, keeping costs around 50,000 to 60,000. In the next bull market, aim for 150,000 to 180,000 yuan. A 2 to 3x return converted to an annualized 40% return is very good. Don't be too greedy when trading.
When building a position, you can set up a range dollar-cost averaging strategy, allowing the system to buy automatically at different frequencies, eliminating interference from market monitoring, and just ensuring discipline is properly executed.
#白宫回应将决定CLARITY法案下周能否投票 It's inconvenient to type right after getting your nails done, but I have to say this is the market
I just finished my nails this afternoon and want to post a beautiful selfie
But as soon as I opened the market app, my hand stopped right on the screen
BTC 63,073, ETH 1,870, SOL 73, all with shrinking volume and a decline across the board
I stared at the plate for ten minutes, forgetting to dry my nails
Then guess what
Despite the decline, on-chain data is actually warmer
Market sentiment is 5 buys, 5 holds, 0 sells, and liquidity index points to Buy
The high cost of selling is high, making it easier to treat the market as a bottom area
This kind of buying and falling structure shows that funds are quietly buying in
I flipped through today's macro view
PCE turns negative month-on-month, GDP growth slows to 1.5%
The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury notes hit a 19-year high
On one hand, the economy is cooling; on the other, long-term interest rates are soaring
With these two forces tugging, the market naturally becomes entangled
So my judgment is
In the short term, it will still be volatile; don't expect a one-sided rally
If the price drops on shrinking volume, don't chase short sellers; even if it rebounds, don't rush to go long
I'll wait for a direction with increased volume to decide which side to take
And by the way, let's take a look at what everyone has been talking about lately:
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
PCE turning negative and GDP slowing again, signals of economic cooling are mounting, and the market is starting to reprice the pace of rate cuts. Liquidity expectations are good news for crypto, but in the short term, they haven't been transmitted to the market yet. I'll treat macro data as background and wait for volume to ramp up before acting
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, indicating that long-term rates are still rising, global capital is suppressing risk appetite, and risk asset valuations are naturally dragged down. I treat this as the biggest headwind recently, keeping my position at a level I can sleep in
#特朗普称对伊失去信心, preparing for another strike
Trump's stance on Iran is becoming increasingly tough, preparing for another strike. Oil prices and risk aversion may rise together, and when geopolitical turmoil strikes, risk assets tend to fall first. I watch the situation closely, and if it really happens, I'll lower leverage and wait and see, not betting on direction or taking on orders
$BTC $ETH #宏观 #盘面BTC relative strength determines everything; this is not the alt season but capital restructuring. Every time the market rises and falls, the illusion that "all altcoins are rising" is revived, but where exactly is liquidity moving? Currently, on-chain and exchange fund flows clearly show a winner-takes-all structure, with gains being extremely concentrated in specific stocks. While actual buying funds are flowing into stocks like JTO, JELLYJELLY, OPG, LAB, BSB, ALLO, and CHIP, funds are flowing out of BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, and VIRTUAL. This is not a phase where the entire market rises together, but rather a process where limited liquidity is being reallocated to certain stocks. The funds driving this trend appear to be not short-term speculative funds but those calculating specific themes and liquidity depths to establish positions. Rather than expecting the entire market to rise, the perception that profit opportunities arise only in certain stocks is already being reflected in the price. Market participants' interest is focused on BTC and a handful of large altcoins Russia is getting serious this time—even Moscow has joined the mining blacklist, and the ban lasts until 2032—a full eight years. Since the start of the year, when some parts of Siberia started cutting power and stopped working, I felt the Russians were about to go all out with miners. Sure enough, now even the capital region can't be saved. The reason is straightforward: electricity is insufficient and mining consumes too much electricity. Did you know that Russia is the world's second-largest mining country? Second only to the United States. After Kazakhstan collapsed last year, a large amount of computing power moved to Russia, but now it is no longer welcome. With the power infrastructure lagging behind, the Russians chose to prioritize people's livelihoods, which is actually reasonable. The power of a crypto mining farm to devour electricity is truly terrifying. I think this will have a deep impact, and the global computing power landscape will be reshuffled again. Those miners who hadn't had time to transfer were probably anxious and anxious now. Interestingly, if the ban is properly enforced now, the network's computing power may drop in the short term. Moreover, miners will face less pressure to sell, because many people have nowhere to start their machines and are even more reluctant to sell their $BTC. Speak up, miners have really had a tough time lately. Not to mention the distant future, just in the past six months, electricity prices have risen, policies have tightened in various countries, and with the volatility of coin prices, too many small mining farms have been unable to hold on. Some worry that concentrated computing power in the U.S. could be manipulated, but I think that's overthinking. Bitcoin's decentralization is at the protocol layer, not geographically. As long as the incentive mechanism remains unchanged, it doesn't matter where miners go. The key is to look at the changes in mining returns after Ethereum's upgrade at the end of August—this is the real turning point for the industry$SOON A few days ago, the price rose for three consecutive days, then pulled back. After a period of decline, its trend began to stabilize. Currently, $SOON is oscillating upward. Because it's a volatile rise, its current position isn't very high, and its price isn't very expensive. So now the question is, how about bottom-fishing at this level? I'm not very sure to answer this question because the situation with this coin is a bit special. I haven't encountered this in a long time. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its recent contract data. It can be seen that during the $SOON decline, its open interest and the changes in the contract long-short ratio are quite different. During the rapid decline phase of $SOON, its contract open interest is rapidly decreasing, while the long-short ratio of contracts is rising rapidly. This shows that many shorts are taking profits. During the $SOON stable phase, its contract open interest did not change much, but the long-short ratio of contracts continued to rise rapidly. Personally, I believe that at this stage, many bears have turned into bulls. Let's take a look at its contract data from the past two days. We can see that its open interest and contract long-short ratio are basically synchronized. This is not surprising, but if we combine its contract data with its price changes, we find that these three data points are basically synchronized. This shows that funds have basically been buying and selling at market prices these past two days. I don't quite understand this kind of trading. Market priceThe 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, hitting a new high since 2007. This is not an ordinary market fluctuation but a typical "bear steepening" scenario—the bond market is casting a real-money vote with its feet against the Federal Reserve. 1. What happened? On July 29, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the seventh consecutive time, keeping the benchmark rate locked at 3.50%-3.75%. However, three FOMC voters dissented, advocating for an immediate 25bp rate hike. Meanwhile, second-quarter domestic demand hit a two-year high, and oil prices rose about 20% in a single month, jointly pushing inflation expectations higher. The result: the 2-year Treasury yield fell, but the 30-year yield surged 14 basis points to 5.23%. The yield curve between short and long ends completely diverged, with the steepening degree reaching its highest since the mid-1990s. This is not a bet on a single rate hike but a market repricing of the US's long-term fiscal and inflation risks. 2. Impact on capital markets The US stock market took the hardest hit. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% that day, the Nasdaq fell 2.1%, and the Dow Jones even plunged 1,153 points at one point. The logic is straightforward: with the risk-free rate sitting above 5.2%, the discount rate for equity cash flows is significantly raised. Companies relying on long-term cash flow narratives—especially tech and AI concept stocks—have their valuation ceilings severely suppressed. Goldman Sachs asset management strategists even view the current situation as a "contrarian entry opportunity," but this feels more like the courage to buy on the left side rather than a trend judgment. 3. Impact on the crypto market Bitcoin, as a high-risk, non-yielding asset, faces dual pressures: First, the maTether earned $1.5 billion in one quarter and bought another 14 tons of gold
Many people's impression of Tether is still limited to issuing $USDT and earning interest from reserves
But what I care about more is what it buys after making money
The latest quarterly disclosures show Tether's net operating profit was about $1.5 billion, with an additional approximately 14 tons of gold, bringing its total holdings to around 146 tons. U.S. Treasuries remain the core of reserves, while gold's weight continues to grow
This company talks about digital dollars every day, but what it holds are US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin—quite interesting 👀
The reason is not hard to understand. The larger the stablecoin scale, the more the market cares whether the money behind it can be brought out. When it comes to centralized redemption, users don't care how well the story is told; they only care about whether their reserves are strong enough and their liquidity is sufficient
So Tether's continued gold buying is not just bullish on gold prices, but also adds an extra layer of credit insurance to USDT
Most people are still watching the price fluctuations, and Tether has already started accumulating assets that can withstand cycles
In the end, the battle for stablecoins isn't about who issues the most, but who can actually pull out the money during market panic
#Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons $BTC $ETH $XAUT $CORE CORE Chain: Web3 Underlying Infrastructure + RWA Real Asset Implementation Full Breakdown
I. CORE's Complete Web3 Underlying Architecture (Foundation Layer)
CORE is a Bitcoin hash power-backed + fully EVM-compatible L1 public chain, forming the entire Web3 infrastructure base:
1. Security Layer: Satoshi Plus Hybrid Consensus
Relying on over 88% of the entire network's Bitcoin hash power for network security backing, unlike pure token-staked PoS public chains; attackers cannot attack the network by buying tokens on secondary markets, they must control the entire BTC network's physical hash power, with security level comparable to Bitcoin.
At the same time, it fully supports Ethereum EVM compatibility, allowing all Ethereum Web3 applications, wallets, contracts, and development tools to migrate with one click, greatly lowering the developer entry barrier.
2. On-chain Web3 Core Application Matrix
1. DeFi Base Layer
Molten DEX (ecosystem-native liquidity exchange), Colend lending, Volta perpetual contracts, lst-BTC liquidity staking system; users can complete staking, lending, trading, and compounding decentralized operations without transferring Bitcoin ownership, forming a BTCFi version of the Web3 financial foundation.
2. Account and Payment Layer
SatPay Mastercard co-branded payment system: converts on-chain crypto assets into offline physical card payments and merchant collection capabilities, serving as the entry and exit point for Web3 assets to real-world consumption. Fees flow back to the treasury to repurchase CORE, forming an economic closed loop.
3. Developer Tools Layer
Officially provides a full set of block explorers, node APIs, contract auditing tools, and Gas rebate incentive mechanisms, continuously attracting external DApp developers; currently, the ecosystem has launched over 125 Web3 decentralized applications.
3. Web3 Core Advantage: Non-custodial Necessity
Users hold their private keys throughout; BTC and CORE assets are never custodially frozen by platforms; whether retail or institutional, asset control is fully in their own wallets, which is the core prerequisite for European and American institutions to connect.
II. CORE Ecosystem RWA (Real-World Asset On-Chain) Implementation Details (Application Layer)
1. Benchmark Implementation Project: ASX Capital Real Estate Tokenization
This is the most mature RWA case in the Core ecosystem:
1. Underlying Assets: Multiple apartment commercial properties in the US, with rental income rights and asset appreciation rights minted as on-chain NFT certificates;
2. Participation Model: Users buy fragmented real estate NFTs on-chain with stablecoins, with a threshold of only $10, breaking the traditional high down payment barrier for buying property;
3. Income Rules: Holders automatically receive monthly rental dividends (settled in USDC), with stable annualized returns of 7.2%–8.5%, and NFTs can be freely traded on secondary markets;
4. Market Validation: The first batch of 3,000 NFTs sold out within 1 hour of public sale, with two rounds of real estate assets already on-chain.
2. Dedicated RWA Trading Market: Blockz
Officially developed integrated NFT + RWA trading market, core highlights:
- Native support for issuance, listing, and settlement of real estate, debt, and bulk commodity RWA assets without cross-chain bridges, reducing contract risk;
- Trading fees are automatically used for staking dividends, binding market revenue with CORE token holders' earnings;
- Leveraging BTC hash power backing for on-chain proof of ownership, enabling institutional-grade asset on-chain full evidence and audit.
3. Other Expanded RWA Directions
1. Compliant Debt: Overseas microloans, bond income rights tokenization;
2. Physical Goods: Precious metals, warehoused bulk commodity fragmentation on-chain;
3. Institutional Side: On-chain evidence and circulation of traditional fund and asset management product shares.
4. Institutional RWA Implementation Evidence
Listed companies like BTCS and DeFi Technologies not only hold CORE spot but also use the on-chain RWA market to record and activate liquidity of some physical real estate and debt assets on-chain; the London Stock Exchange BTC-staked ETP is essentially a compliant financial RWA derivative.
III. Web3 + RWA Complete Closed-Loop Logic
1. Underlying Layer (Web3 Public Chain): BTC hash power security + EVM compatibility, providing a trustworthy, decentralized blockchain environment;
2. Middle Layer (DeFi Tools): lst-BTC, lending, DEX, responsible for asset activation and liquidity;
3. Upper Layer (RWA Implementation): Tokenization of real estate/debt and other real assets, bringing real cash flow on-chain;
4. Exit (SatPay Payment): On-chain RWA income and crypto assets can be spent and monetized in offline physical scenarios;
5. Economic Feedback: Full-chain fees generated → treasury repurchases and burns CORE, completing the token deflation closed loop.
IV. Objective Shortcomings: Current Limitations in Narrative Implementation
1. RWA Scale is Small
Currently, only the US real estate ASX project has formed a scaled user base; other RWA categories remain in testing and pilot stages; overall RWA locked funds are far smaller than native on-chain DeFi staking scale.
2. Legal Ownership Shortcomings
On-chain NFTs only represent fragmented income rights, not full legal ownership of physical real estate; overseas SPV isolation structures are only effective within local judicial systems, with cross-border compliance gray areas.
3. Ecosystem Reliance on Incentives
Early users and developers still rely on token mining incentives; fully subsidy-free, purely RWA business-driven natural growth requires long-term validation.
V. Summary in One Sentence
CORE first built decentralized infrastructure with Bitcoin-secure Web3 public chain, then brought real estate and debt cash flows on-chain through RWA, and finally connected offline real-world consumption via SatPay;
Currently, Web3 infrastructure is fully formed, RWA has produced benchmark small projects, but large-scale real asset full implementation still belongs to a mid-to-long-term narrative.Chinese storage enters LPDDR6, and the era of high profits for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is about to change!
The storage industry, a market long dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, is now experiencing new variables.
According to U.S. Investment Network, Changxin Memory Corporation (CXMT) is nearing completion of LPDDR6 R&D validation, bringing it closer to mass production.
Its first LPDDR6 product:
Data rates reach 12,800Mbps
Supports 16Gb storage chips
Uses 1295-ball PoP packaging
If the news is true, the significance goes beyond just "having an extra domestic chip."
More importantly:
China's storage is moving from catching up to global competition.
What does this mean for Samsung?
The short-term impact is limited.
Samsung's true core profit has gradually shifted to:
HBM, high-performance AI storage.
But if new vendors emerge in the LPDDR market, it will bring a change:
The upside for storage prices may be squeezed.
In recent years, AI demand has driven DRAM price increases, with Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix enjoying high profit cycles.
If supply increases in the future, the market will refocus:
How much longer can storage prices rise?
What does this mean for US storage stocks?
Micron is under the greatest pressure.
This is because Micron is highly dependent on DRAM cycles.
If the market starts worrying about future supply increases, it may trade in advance:
"Is the storage supercycle nearing its end?"
SK Hynix's impact is relatively smaller.
Because its biggest moat isn't phone memory, but rather:
AI server HBM.
As long as Nvidia's AI demand continues to grow, HBM will remain a core source of profit.
SanDisk's direct impact is relatively small.
But the entire storage sector will be affected by sentiment.
Investors will reassess:
Is this round of storage rally a sign of long-term demand growth or a cyclical high?
The future of the storage industry will be more than just technology.
Also:
Capacity, cost, yield, and capital input.
For Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix:
The HBM opportunities brought by AI are still there.
However, the traditional DRAM market may welcome a new competitor.
LPDDR6 is just the beginning; what truly changes the storage landscape is Chinese manufacturers entering the previously most profitable areas of Samsung and Micron.
$MU $SKHY $SNDK $WDC $AMD #美股Amazon has directly raised its capital expenditure for 2026 to $220 billion, $20 billion more than estimated, planning to invest 1.6 trillion RMB in one year. The numbers look staggering, but combined with the latest earnings report, this spending is far from reckless.
🤔 Specifically, there are three core logics:
🪁 Demand is not a false boom; cloud business growth is fully maxed out
AWS Q2 revenue surged 37% year-over-year, marking the highest growth rate in nearly four years, with backlog orders approaching $500 billion. CEO Jassy also admitted that including plans for 2027 and 2028, computing power remains in short supply. This shows that enterprise demand for AI and cloud services is genuinely strong.
🪁 The additional $20 billion largely goes to covering costs
This budget increase is not just for building more data centers but also forced by rising hardware prices. High-end storage and chips are in short supply, pushing procurement costs higher. A significant portion of the new funds is to absorb the rigid cost increases in the supply chain.
🪁 Short-term cash flow is negative, but the arms race giants have no way out
The aggressive spending has caused Amazon’s free cash flow to turn negative over the past 12 months, but this is a strategic investment. Whoever lags in computing power will lose customers to Microsoft or Google. As long as demand is real, heavy asset infrastructure will yield steady returns over several years, and short-term tightness is fully controllable.
✍️ Looking ahead, several trends can be predicted:
🪁 Bottlenecks shift; storage and power become new pain points
Buying GPUs alone is not enough; storage components and power supply are becoming new capacity chokepoints. Whoever can secure stable energy and supply chains will be able to truly deliver computing power.
🪁 In-house chip development will accelerate
Facing expensive procurement costs, Amazon will push its own Trainium and Graviton chips more aggressively. This will reduce costs for customers and save money for itself, boosting profit margins.
🪁 Upstream hardware supply chain continues to quietly profit
The AI infrastructure arms race that giants can’t stop directly benefits upstream high-end storage, optical modules, and data center power suppliers. This boom is expected to last a long time.
In summary, Amazon’s budget increase is driven by strong demand and cost pressures. The AI infrastructure arms race among tech giants is far from over; the midgame has just begun.
Not investment advice DYOR #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 Microsoft’s single-day market value surged by nearly $450 billion, setting a new record in the U.S. stock market. Behind this record-breaking surge is AI entering its “realization phase.”
If we rewind two years, many people thought AI was just a story.
But now, capital is beginning to believe it is turning into profit.
Microsoft’s single-day market value increased by nearly $450 billion, breaking the historical record on the U.S. stock market. Many interpret this as overheated market sentiment, but I prefer to see it as a revaluation of the valuation system.
What truly drives the frenzy of capital buying is not this one financial report, but Microsoft proving one thing:
AI has started to create real commercial value.
Azure cloud business continues to benefit from AI demand, Copilot is pushing enterprise software into a new charging model, and enterprise customers are willing to keep paying for higher productivity.
What capital loves most has never been concepts, but cash flow that can be continuously replicated.
This is also why, although many companies are deploying AI, some see their stock prices spike briefly, while Microsoft keeps hitting new all-time highs.
Because the market is beginning to believe it has not only technology but a complete AI business ecosystem capable of sustained profitability.
This reminds me of a phenomenon in trading.
Many people always like to ask:
"Is it too high now?"
But truly excellent trends almost always keep breaking through what "looks already high."
Because price rises not just because it has risen, but because the market’s expectations for future profits keep increasing.
As I trade more, I guess the top less and less.
Instead of predicting when it will end, I focus more on one question:
Is the core logic driving the rise still intact?
As long as capital is still willing to raise future profit expectations, and fundamentals continue to strengthen, so-called "all-time highs" are often just the starting point for the next round of gains.
Of course, this does not mean the risk disappears.
When the market starts pricing in all growth for the next five or even ten years in advance, any signal below expectations can trigger severe volatility.
Therefore, I always adhere to one principle:
Don’t be bullish just because the price hits a new high, and don’t be bearish just because the price hits a new high. What’s truly worth following is whether capital is still continuously raising its pricing of the future.
Prices can deceive, emotions can deceive, but long-term sustained inflows of capital rarely lie.
This is also the trading philosophy I have always upheld: respect the trend, but always trade logic, not emotions.My dad asked me what DeFi is, and I said, don't worry about it, I'll help you buy it
Yesterday, my dad suddenly asked me, what exactly is DeFi that you young people talk about?
I was stunned for a moment. I've said this word so well, but trying to explain it would just stuck
I thought about it and decided to start with the simplest explanation: no bank required, just code to manage money
Then guess what
After hearing this, he immediately asked, "Is it safe to keep the money inside?"
I rolled my eyes and showed him Tether's just-released financial report
Tether's quarterly profit reached $1.5 billion, and its gold reserves rose to 146 tons
A stablecoin company earns more than most publicly listed companies
Behind this is actually a major signal
Stablecoins are no longer just small-time toys; they're legitimate money-making machines
Ethereum's mainnet has also been running continuously for eleven years
This code management system has run for eleven years without any major problems
So my judgment is
This DeFi wave isn't hype—it's real demand that's growing
Stablecoins combined with on-chain will only become more mainstream in the future
But for my dad's money, I'll keep it safe for him first
Let's also chat about a few trending topics to see if any of them are worth following:
#Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons
The stablecoin leader earned $1.5 billion in a single quarter, with gold piled up to 146 tons. This money-attracting power surpasses many listed companies, indicating that the real demand for on-chain stablecoins is still rising. If I use it as a thermometer for industry health, I dare not worry about its profits
#白宫回应将决定CLARITY法案下周能否投票
Whether the CLARITY Act can be voted on next week is the biggest variable for the White House to reshuffle. If this bill passes, compliant stablecoins and exchanges will have to reshuffle. I see it as the biggest policy watershed in the second half of the year, and I won't dare to overdo positions before implementation
#以太坊主网十一周年: Eleven years of uninterrupted operation and ecological achievements
Ethereum has been running for eleven years without ever going down. This reliability is truly rare in the crypto world. The on-chain ecosystem has grown from transfers to lending, stablecoins, and various protocols. I use it as the anchor for crypto infrastructure, and when prices fall, I dare to take it slowly
$ETH #DeFi #稳定币AMD's earnings report hasn't even been released, but its stock price has already finished a bull and bear cycle.
A few days ago, AMD rebounded violently along with the chip sector, and many people started shouting:
Finally, it's its turn to challenge Nvidia. $AMD
However, on Friday, AMD surged to near $515 but ended up closing at $476, giving back almost all its intraday gains.
I think this surge and pullback is more worth watching than a simple rise.
Because AMD is not short of stories right now.
The market expects its Q2 revenue to grow nearly 50% year-on-year, with profits potentially multiplying several times. Data centers and AI chips remain the core sources of growth.
AMD recently signed a new AI data center partnership with Core Scientific, with the initial plan to secure 500 megawatts of capacity, and the potential expansion to 2.5 gigawatts in the future.
What does that mean?
AMD is no longer satisfied with just selling chips.
It is actively binding data centers, power, and computing infrastructure, aiming to truly fit its GPUs into more AI clusters.
Once this path is cleared, AMD will no longer be just a "cheap version of NVIDIA."
But now the biggest problem is here:
Everyone has already set their earnings expectations too high in advance.
AMD's stock price has doubled this year, and its current valuation is not cheap. The options market even bet that stock prices could fluctuate up or down by nearly 10% after earnings reports.
In other words, even if the financial report is just "good," it may not be enough.
What the market really wants to see are three things:
First, can data center revenue continue to grow rapidly;
Second, have AI GPU orders significantly accelerated;
Third, can management provide follow-up guidance stronger than market expectations?
If all three exceed expectations, AMD may continue to challenge previous highs.
But if any one of these items isn't impressive enough, those who have been hiding in previous earnings reports may be the first to cash in.
I won't chase AMD just because it hits $500 now.
Nor do they immediately think the market is over just because it surges or falls.
The most dangerous thing before an earnings report is never when stocks rise too much.
But the market has already taken it as:
It must deliver a perfect answer.
After the market closed on August 4, AMD's real challenge was not whether it had an AI story.
It's about whether it can truly snatch enough money from Nvidia.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.My boyfriend said this coin was not good, but it ended up rising tenfold
At midday today, I saw a bunch of unexpected surprises during the US stock earnings season
Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
Microsoft's market value increased by nearly 450 billion in a single day, setting a new record in the US stock market
I thought to myself, is this market just putting on a show?
Then guess what
BTC 63040 fell 2%, but the liquidity index shows a buy
The high cost of selling off stocks has ironically become a bottom signal
The contract long-short ratio may be overly concentrated in the Buy long position
Market sentiment: 5 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell, neutral bullish
So my judgment is
This situation of buying and falling is a typical bottom-level game
Large funds accumulate in panic, while retail investors exit during stop-loss losses
I chose to wait and see for confirmation of the breakout
There are a few more noteworthy topics today, so let's talk about them together:
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
After the long-term breakout above the 19-year range, whether the 5.3% is the top or a new starting point will determine the valuation anchor for risk assets in August. Therefore, my judgment is that the long-term new high means inflation expectations remain intact, and risk asset valuations will continue to be under pressure, which cannot be ignored
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
The market has long digested Amazon's weak guidance, and the rebound is actually due to a clear outlook. So my judgment is that the market has started using growth stock logic to reverse the AI narrative, and this rally may last for some time, or even longer
#微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for the US stock market
Microsoft's AI cloud business continues to see volume growth, with a single-day increase equivalent to a mid-cap crypto market cap. Therefore, my judgment is that tech giants are the real safe haven for capital right now. Other sectors are still in turbulence, waiting for clear direction signals before entering
$BTC #美股 #宏观Since the FOMC, Bitcoin has fallen by 2.8%—so far, this has not been surprising.
In the past seven FOMC reactions, BTC has dropped an average of 4-5% in six of those times. If this trend resembles previous patterns, we may test the low $60-61K range.
The key points remain. If this level is lost, we are likely to sweep the price lower.
#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights #How to tell when the storage cycle has peaked?
I believe that rather than guessing, it's better to focus on these four indicators.
First, look at gross margin. Fixed costs in the storage industry are very high. Once prices start to reverse, gross margins often fall faster than revenue, which is usually the earliest signal of a cycle peak.
Second, let's look at the CapEx of the four major cloud providers. Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are the real demand side. If one day AI capital spending is clearly cut, I believe this will be the most vigilant signal for the entire storage industry.
Third, look at the spot price, not the contract price. In previous storage cycles, spot prices started to loosen first, followed by contract prices. If spot prices fall and contracts remain firm in the future, it often means inventory has started to accumulate.
Fourth, look at new production capacity. Especially the expansion progress of manufacturers like Changxin Memory (CXMT) in 2027-2028. If a large amount of new capacity is released on schedule or even ahead of schedule, the supply landscape may change.
Therefore, I believe that when determining when storage cycles have peaked, there's no need to rely on intuition or guess prices every day. Focus on gross margin, CapEx, spot prices, and new capacity—these four indicators often tell you the answer earlier than stock prices.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU