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ETH is bullish and bearish, so why can't short-term hype be directly seen as a breakout signal? According to OKX Onchain OS's official community sentiment snapshot at 10:00 AM (China time) on August 1, ETH recorded 21 mentions in the past hour, with sources including X 19 times and 2 news reports. There were 700 mentions in 24 hours; After converting the long window to the hourly average, the latest hourly speed is about 0.72 times. This means the current discussion pace is slower or faster relative to the long-window average, and does not correspond to the price direction. The tone structure adds an extra layer of information than just looking at the total amount. The proportion of ETH 1-hour samples is 52% overly long, 14% bearish, and about 34% neutral; The 24-hour correspondence ratio is 40% bullish and 13% bearish. The short-window is clearly more bullish than the bearish window, but the sample is only 21 times, so any concentrated event can cause the ratio to swing rapidly. This set of numbers best answers "the tone of ETH discussions currently leaning toward it," rather than "how much capital is betting on the market to rise." Text categories do not read wallet positions, nor are each mention weighted by capital size. A highly engaged account and multiple small accounts are just text samples; reposts, quotes, and news retellings may even describe the same thing. Source separation can help identify the texture of hotspots. If mentions on X increase but news remains scarce, the topic may first spread on social media; If news sources increase simultaneously, it indicates more verifiable event materials. However, the increase in news volume does not guarantee positive content; it is still necessary to return to agreements, foundations, regulators, or original company announcements to avoid using secondhand headlines to fill in unconfirmed details. For ETH, subsequent validation can be divided into two lines: network usage and market structure. Network usage includes transaction fees, active addresses, L2 settlement, and staking changes; Market structure includes spot trading, futures basis, funding rates, and option skew. Only when the community bias is partially echoed in these independent data can it be possible to upgrade from tone signals to more reliable market judgments. Also, pay attention to the 24-hour average limit. 700 times divided by twenty-four is a convenient benchmark for comparison, but it smooths out spikes caused by press conferences, regulatory announcements, or US trading sessions. If the latest hour is below the average, it may just be a time zone difference; If it is above the average, it may just be a single news outburst. At least observe two to three consecutive snapshots to qualify for a trend continuation. A more stable conditional statement is: if the proportion of ETH overweight remains after the sample expands, the mention speed is once again higher than the long-window average, and the sources expand from pure X to multiple official or news channels, market attention will be more solid. Conversely, if the total volume drops in the next round and the ratio quickly returns to neutral, the current round result should be regarded as short-window noise. Currently, official data supports only two points: ETH's one-hour bullish tone is higher than bearish, and the short-term discussion speed is about 0.72 times the 24-hour average. It has not proven a breakout, net inflow, or synchronized on-chain demand. The article sets a short validity period and retains the original metrics so that the next update can be replaced directly, rather than letting a beautiful proportion become an outdated conclusion in the absence of new evidence.To be honest, I never said "the worst time for de-leveraging is at the end of July." It's hard to judge trends, and if you add Time the Market, it's even harder. At the beginning of the month, I said "deleveraging semiconductor storage might exceed everyone's expectations" mainly for several reasons 1. Storage positions are too crowded and consensus too strong; once there is any disturbance, the market may easily experience a negative cycle. 2. The market is starting to ignore the positive news and is reacting strongly to negative news (Meta has started selling hash rate). 3. Open-source model coding capabilities have caught up. I feel GLM 5.2 is about the same as Opus 4.8. Also, US tech companies like Coinbase have started using top-tier models and mixing open-source models, with the same effect and halving costs 4. There have already been several technical divergences and pulled back. If this is a real drop, most people won't want to exit. I myself have paid a large amount in a single day because of similar technological forms (the kind where ordinary people can just lie flat for a lifetime). Considering these points, going long is already very unprofitable. As for when the bubble bursts, I didn't expect it to drop so fiercely and so quickly in just one month.🌐 After a strong wave of community opposition, $ENS took a step back and adjusted its governance reform plan. Previously, the ENS Foundation proposed taking over most of the ENS DAO's treasury and asset control, including tens of millions of dollars in ETH, stablecoins, and a large amount of ENS tokens. This proposal was fiercely criticized, with many members calling it a "governance attack." 📉 In the latest draft, ENS significantly narrowed the scope of changes: • The DAO still retains control over the operational wallet. • Approximately 54.6 million ENS held by the DAO remain under community decision. • The Foundation only receives 1 million ENS for employee incentive programs, with a long-term vesting period. • The Foundation is authorized to manage the Endowment, but all transactions must go through a time-lock mechanism and can be canceled by the Security Council. 🔍 Interestingly, this is not just a story about ENS. It reflects a fierce debate ongoing across the entire DeFi space: whether DAOs should directly manage hundreds of millions of dollars in assets or delegate operational control to more specialized institutions. One side seeks to improve decision-making efficiency, while the other worries about power concentration and the risk of losing decentralization. ⚖️ Ultimately, ethereum: reached a compromise: enhancing the Foundation's authority while leaving most assets and protocol control to the community. This could become an important precedent for other large DAOs balancing operational efficiency with decentralization features. #ENS #DAO #DeFi #Governance The most easily misinterpreted place for meme coins lies behind the community narrative. Have you ever wondered why some coin communities shout loudest, but their prices soften first? While organizing the list tonight, staring at these familiar names, I suddenly realized something. People are used to treating the community as synonymous with "consensus," but the real point of disagreement has never been the community itself, but the path by which the community is formed. Those gathered through narrative, emotion, and a campaign-style mobilization are like those who stayed during a long bear market relying on infrastructure, protocol iterations, and real money lock-ups. On the surface, they are all "communities," with fundamentally different underlying logic. I observed a clear layering. Communities like DOGE, Floki, Wif, and Brett are more like cultural symbols, with extremely high dissemination efficiency, but the depth of capital support often depends on market sentiment. Once risk appetite contracts, volatility in these assets is amplified because participants generally have shorter holding cycles. Tokens like XMR, KAS, ETC, and ZEC have no companies, no pre-mining, no investors. Community formation relies on belief in the technical path. These tokens have more stable holding structures but lack narrative flexibility, making it difficult to attract incremental capital in a bull market. The middle layer is even more subtle. For example, hype, JUP, SUSHI, and ENS have deep community participation in governance and decentralization of decision-making power. On the surface, this appears to be "decentralized," but in essence, governance participation and market performance are not always positively correlated. Many times, it's about treatment The official price reduction for Oman crude oil in September and the decline in geopolitical premiums are the main reasons The official September price of Oman crude oil is set at $76.36 per barrel, down $2.73 from August's $79.09 per barrel. Export pricing has weakened, creating a bearish impact on crude oil futures. There are three core drivers behind the decline: 📉 Geopolitical risk premiums are being concentrated and cleared. Since late May, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly improved, US-Iran negotiations continue to advance, and the previously priced "supply cut fear" quickly rebounded, with WTI and Brent both returning to pre-conflict levels. 📉 Substantial recovery on the supply side. The U.S. has temporarily eased oil export restrictions to Iran, with Gulf exports expected to recover to over 10 million barrels per day by the end of July; Oil-producing countries like the UAE are accelerating production increases, while OPEC+ shifts from production restrictions to price protection to planned production increases. 📉 Demand remains weak. In Asian markets, especially in China, the operating rate of local refineries has dropped to its lowest level in recent years, indicating weak global manufacturing conditions. The EIA has lowered its demand growth forecast for 2026. Related stocks: ExxonMobil XOM 📉, Brent Crude Oil Fund BNO📉, Energy Sector ETF XLE📉. Short-term (1-3 months): 📉 Supply recovery + weak demand are both putting pressure on oil prices, making it easier for oil prices to fall than to rise. Energy stocks are under pressure before the third-quarter report. Long-term (over 1 year): 📈 Currently, OECD inventories are at their lowest levels in recent years, with peak oil demand in summer providing a bottom. If geopolitical volatility arises or OPEC+ tightens production again, there are valuation recovery opportunities for oil and energy stocks. #阿曼原油9月官方售价下跌 $XLE #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 1. Yield Level As of August 1, 2026, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield had risen to around 5.27%, briefly touching a 19-year high of 5.275% intraday. Previously, after the Federal Reserve meeting on July 29, the yield surged 14 basis points to 5.23% in a single day, and continued to rise over the following trading days. During the same period, yields on other U.S. Treasuries of other maturities also generally rose: the 10-year yield at 4.733%, and the 2-year at 4.287%. 2. Background and Core Reasons 1. The Fed's "hawkish stance" triggers a crisis of confidence On July 29, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, with the benchmark rate remaining in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Although Chairman Wash has emphasized his determination to fight inflation in his rhetoric, he has yet to take concrete action. The market interpreted this as: "Hawkish stance but no action"—investors began to doubt whether Walsh truly had the determination to curb inflation that had been above target levels for five consecutive years. 2. The yield curve has steepened for a rare degree After this Fed decision, a very rare structural signal appeared in the bond market: Short-term (2-year) yields are declining: The market believes that rate hikes are unlikely in the near term Long-term (30-year) yields soar: investors demand higher inflation risk compensation This combination of "short-term down, long-term rise" is one of the largest curve steepening since the mid-1990s Federal Reserve meeting. 3. Multiple Driving Factors Combined Specific manifestations of driving factors Inflation: Stubborn inflation has remained above the 2% target for five consecutive years, with June CPI still at 3.5% Geopolitics: The United States launched a military strike against Iran, pushing oil prices past $92 per barrel Fiscal supply pressure: The scale of U.S. government debt continues to expand, and the supply of long-term government bonds is increasing Communication with the Federal Reserve is unclear, and Wash's abandonment of forward-looking guidance means the market lacks a policy anchor As the Managing Director of Highline Asset Management stated: "This shows that Walsh's policy strategy lacks credibility...... Hawkish statements without action are a convenient way for the market to make its own judgment. " 3. Market impact 1. The stock market is under pressure The S&P 500 closed down 1.5%. Rising long-term funding costs are putting pressure on high-valuation sectors such as technology stocks. 2. Long-term government bond ETFs plunged The approximately $42 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has fallen 3.8% this year, largely erasing last year's 4.3% gain. 3. Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have become public Three members of the meeting voted in favor of an immediate rate hike and openly opposed Wash's stance of holding stead. The probability of a rate hike in September is currently about 65%. 4. Summary The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through 5.27%, hitting a 19-year high, essentially a market vote on the credibility of Fed policy—investors don't believe that hawkish rhetoric alone can curb inflation, so they are "tightening themselves" by pushing up long-term rates. Combined with factors such as Middle East geopolitical conflicts driving up oil prices and widening US fiscal deficits, long-term inflation risks and term premiums have been repriced. Walsh's logic is that rising long-term interest rates are itself tightening for the Fed, pushing up real economic costs such as mortgages and corporate financing. But whether the market will buy in will be key windows to watch for September inflation data and the Federal Reserve's decision. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 📊 On-Chain Analyst Perspective: Real-Time Dissection of $CAP Token Market 🔻 Support and Resistance Levels Upper Resistance (Dense Selling Zone): · 0.040-0.041: Psychological barrier + 4H Bollinger upper band, bulls were previously blocked and pulled back in this area · 0.036-0.037: Current price range top + 4H Bollinger upper band, short-term direct resistance · 0.034: Previous breakout level, must hold above to open upward space · 0.04274: ATH (June 26), mid-term ceiling Lower Support (Bullish Defense Line): · 0.036-0.0361: 1H Bollinger middle band + current range bottom · 0.032: Previous breakout level, losing this breaks the structure · 0.0196-0.0204: Core demand zone tested multiple times in early July · 0.0155-0.0160: ATL area, historically saw a violent 18.9% rebound from this position Technical indicators show conflicting signals—Gate data shows 1H RSI at 65.56, 4H MACD histogram 0.0010 maintaining bullish expansion, price close to Bollinger upper band; but CoinMarketCap data shows price only 0.016, far below EMA20/50/100, RSI only 38.84. The huge discrepancy between data sources indicates shallow market depth and fragile price discovery mechanism. --- 🐋 On-Chain Whale Movements Token Structure (Maximum Risk): · Total supply 10 billion tokens, currently only 15.6% circulating (about 1.56 billion tokens) · 84.4% of tokens locked until 2027, including 40% allocated to team and investors · Market cap/FDV ratio only 0.16, meaning the value of tokens to be unlocked in the future is more than 6 times the current market cap Market Behavior Signals: · Contract 24h trading volume about $31.5 million, spot about $7.9 million · Past 24h long liquidations $74K vs short only $18.5K, leveraged longs are the main bearers of the decline · Open interest about $7.86-8.04 million, leverage level still adjusting · Funding rate 0.0419% in neutral range, long position cost controllable --- ✅ Bullish Factors 1. DeFi lending volume ranks second: became the second largest lending protocol within days of launch 2. Top exchanges collectively listed: Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gate Futures, Kraken, KuCoin, OKX, Binance and more than ten exchanges launched simultaneously 3. Oversubscribed TGE: June 26 batch auction oversubscribed 5.5 times, FDV reached $106 million 4. Stabledrop incident settled: founder adjusted stablecoin distribution amount to ensure YT holders receive full principal protection 5. Robinhood PFP marketing: viral spread brought short-term attention --- ❌ Bearish Factors (⚠️ Extremely High Risk) 1. 84.4% supply locked—biggest time bomb: only 15.6% circulating now, massive unlocking in 2027 will cause devastating dilution 2. Price crashed 57.7% from ATH: dropped from 0.04274 to ATL 0.018, halved in just 17 days 3. "Catwife Cap" meme marketing failed: relied on viral marketing pump, price free-fell after hype faded 4. FDV severely disconnected: FDV about $180 million, market cap only about $28 million, premium 6.4 times 5. Project discretionary buyback: buyback is discretionary (self-decided, not mandatory), lacks rigid deflationary mechanism 6. Data sources severely split: different platform quotes range from 0.016 to 0.037, shallow depth causes fragile price discovery --- 🎯 Comprehensive Judgment $CAP is a typical "top-tier fundamentals vs devastating tokenomics" split asset. At protocol level—second in DeFi lending volume, top ten exchanges collectively listed—is indeed impressive. But at tokenomics level—84.4% locked, FDV 6 times market cap—is a Damocles sword hanging overhead. Short-term focus on 0.036 support—holding it may rebound to 0.040-0.041; losing it may return to 0.032 or even below 0.020 to find bottom. The 0.040-0.041 zone above is strong resistance, breaking through requires huge volume. ⚠️ This is not investment advice. $CAP is currently in a multi-risk overlay state of "strong protocol fundamentals vs 84% locked supply + 57% price drop + liquidity fragmentation." 84.4% locked means future supply shock far exceeds current circulation. Current price data sources are severely split (0.016-0.037), shallow depth causes frequent slippage and false breakouts, any participation in either direction requires extreme caution. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 The pricing anchor is rising again! Understand the signals of US Treasuries and avoid the upcoming huge market traps. #30-year US Treasury yield hits a 19-year high $BTC The Fed decided to keep rates unchanged, but the market showed extreme polarization: short-term yields edged down, and the 30-year Treasury yield surged, reaching a 19-year high since 2007. The vast majority of traders simply interpret it as "rising inflation and renewed rate hike expectations," ignoring the core truth: this round of long-term rally is not just about Fed policy maneuvering, but also soaring term premiums + resonant concerns over fiscal debt, passive tightening of financial conditions, and the last illusion of a low interest rate era being shattered. This global asset pricing anchor continues to rise, requiring all risk assets to be revalued. I. Core Market Facts Review The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, but three opposing votes appeared within the FOMC, with several officials calling for continued rate hikes, and internal hawkish divisions becoming public. The bond market has developed a rare bearish steep structure: the 2-year yield has fallen, the 30-year yield has surged dramatically, and the yield curve has steepened. To put it simply, market trading language: short-term interest rate hikes won't be sharp right away, but long-term risks of inflation and massive debt cannot be eliminated. Long-term funds are selling long-term US Treasuries, demanding higher risk compensation. Historical reference: The previous 30-year yield reached its current level, just before a real estate bubble, followed by a sharp adjustment in global markets. 2. Four layers of underlying logic: Understanding the soaring yields of ultra-long-term bonds 1. Persistent inflation persists, and energy risks are re-escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts have driven up crude oil prices, prompting the market to reprice imported inflation. The market is gradually reaching a consensus: it will be difficult for inflation to quickly fall back to the 2% target, and it will remain high and fluctuating for a long time. Holding 30-year long-term bonds means bearing decades of price volatility risk, so investors naturally demand higher yields for hedge. 2. The U.S. has a massive deficit, and bond supply pressure continues to grow The federal debt continues to expand, with the Treasury issuing additional long-term Treasury bonds. Buyer institutions have limited willingness to accept, and supply-demand imbalances directly push up long-term interest rates. This is a long-term suppressive force independent of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and relying solely on rate cut expectations is unlikely to completely reverse the upward trend in long-term bonds. 3. Term premiums continue to recover, bidding farewell to the negative premium environment of the past decade Over the past decade or so, quantitative easing has suppressed term premiums; Now, balance sheet reduction continues, and the central bank no longer takes on bonds indefinitely. The rising term premium means that even if the Fed starts cutting rates in the future, the downside for long-term rates will be locked in, and the market will officially bid farewell to the long-term ultra-low interest rate environment. 4. The credibility of Federal Reserve policy is being tested Facing stubborn inflation and the choice to pause rate hikes, the market is concerned that the central bank is lagging in response. Funds choose to "buy short, sell long": short-term betting on economic cooling and long-term concerns about persistent inflation, ultimately resulting in a split market of short-term declines and long-term gains. 3. Major asset chain transmission simulations 1. The U.S. tech sector continues to face mounting valuation pressure U.S. Treasury yields are the denominator of the discounted cash flow model. Long-term interest rates are rising, and forward earnings valuations are passively compressed. Impact Rankings: High-valuation AI growth stocks> mid-cap technology > value cycle. Currently, there is a huge contradiction in the market: many tech companies rely on forward earnings to tell stories, with risk-free yields breaking through 5%, holding government bonds to win easily, and funds unwilling to bear volatility risks to chase high-valuation themes. Sector differentiation will intensify, and only leaders with stable free cash flow can be defensive. 2. The golden logic is tugging at each other In theory, high real interest rates suppress non-interest-free gold, creating a temporary bearish trend. However, two layers of scenarios need to be distinguished: short-term surging yields bring selling pressure; Medium- and long-term geopolitical risks and debt crisis concerns will provide bottom support. Do not bet solely on one side; gold will enter a sharp market swing and will find it difficult to break out of a smooth trend. 3. Crude oil A two-way game. On one hand, rising inflation expectations are positive for commodities; On the other hand, persistently high interest rates suppress global forward demand. The market was more driven by geopolitical news, and the trend upward window brought by macro liquidity was shrinking. 4. Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) Highly linked to growth stock risk appetite. Long-term bonds rising = global liquidity is implicitly tightening, raising the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets. For a large-scale market to start, the core prerequisite is that long-term yields clearly reach a top. During periods when yields continue to hit new highs, any rebound is more likely to be defined as a correction rally, so be cautious about chasing long positions. 5. Foreign exchange market US Treasury yields support the resilience of the US dollar, while multiple currencies remain under pressure. The joint intervention by Japan and South Korea in the foreign exchange market was essentially a countermeasure against the pressure of currency depreciation caused by rising long-term interest rates. 4. The four most common cognitive traps traders fall into 1. Misconception: If the Fed doesn't raise interest rates, interest rates will fall Long-term yields are not entirely determined by short-term policy rates; fiscal, supply and demand, and long-term inflation expectations have independent influence. This rally perfectly demonstrates that even with rates unchanged, long-term bonds can still hit new highs. 2. Misconception: High yield = immediate crash Rising interest rates are a slow fermentation process and do not immediately trigger a systemic decline. The real risk is that yields remain high for a long time, gradually eroding corporate profits and suppressing asset valuations—a blunt cut at the loss. 3. Misconception: Bottom-fishing growth stocks on dips The valuation recovery cycles of high-valuation growth stocks often move in the opposite direction of long-term bond yields. Before a clear peak signal is given in interest rates, the margin for error in left-side bottom-fishing is extremely low. 4. Misconception: The bearish steep market fades quickly As long as the U.S. fiscal deficit does not shrink and inflation does not continue to decline, there is sustained upside in term premiums, and long-term debt pressure will persist for a long time.美国有很多金融魔法，为什么美国人要搞金融而不是制造业，我举个例子：金融自循环，怎么个循环玩法，说说：正常的，符合逻辑的贷款流程是这样的：银行借钱给公司，公司拿到钱以后购买设备，发工资，搞研发，然后生产，产出利润，开始还银行贷款，或者还利息也行，把整个贷款循环起来，也行美国金融是这么玩的： PE基金自己出10%的钱，再找银行借90%的钱，收购一家实体公司。收购完毕后，把90%的债务挂到这家被收购的公司上。 PE基金再要求这家公司通过再融资借更多的钱，给自己发巨额特别股息，因为它自己出的钱本来才10%嘛，这样提前就收回成本了。再过几年，PE基金把这家欠一屁股债的企业到手卖给下一个基金，或者推上市。这个玩法，就是泰晤士水务的那个玩法。当然，这里面有几个难点：第一：PE基金要求这家公司再融资更多的钱，融资一般是找银行，银行又不傻凭什么给你借？第二：上市套现，如果能进被动基金指数，那自然有股民接盘，那又不是每个公司都能上市的，即便是上市也不一定能进指数，那咋办？解决办法如下：第一个解决办法：银行发贷款主要看的是自由现金流，而不是负债问题，所以PE基金在要求公司借款前，会采取一系列粉饰财务的办法，比如说暂停研发，延迟更新设备，裁员，消减福利等等，可以短期拉高现金流，而对于银行来说他看到的是这家公司现金流充沛，是可以覆盖未来三到五年的联系支出的。当然，还可以玩的更花一点，比如说直接找投行，投行房贷给企业，PE拿到钱，这就套现了，投行再把贷款打包成贷款抵押债券，然后再转手卖给什么养老金，保险公司，银行之类的。投行这时候只起了一个中介的作用，所以投行收了手续费。然后你觉得吃亏的是谁？吃亏的是什么养老金，保险公司，银行之类的，对吧？因为它们最后一个接盘嘛。那你就错了，人家拿着贷款抵押债券，怎么可能就呆呆的拿在手里等着利息？比如说一个保险公司真的买了10亿的贷款抵押债券，当它需要钱的时候，他会把这10亿的贷款抵押债券抵押给投行或者其他金融机构，然后借9亿出来。而接手这10亿的贷款抵押债券的投行，还可以把贷款抵押债券再次抵押给第三方机构，比如说对冲基金，再借钱。然后如此循环。当然这依然是老实人的玩法。不老实的玩法就是，私募基金跑到二级市场收购这些贷款抵押债券，然后把这些债券再次打包，变成一个新的债券，在拿出去卖。玩的更花的，可以把这些债券打包成可以公开发行的贷款抵押债券ETF，这样普通投资者都可以买了。当然那还可以精细一点，比如说私募基金收集了一堆的贷款抵押债券，这些贷款抵押债券评级不一样，有的高，有的低。把那些高的AAA的债券，打个包，再卖给养老金，保险公司，银行。把BBB以及以下的再卖给其他金融机构。哦对了，最先借款的哪家企业叫什么来着？忘记啦，这么东倒一下西倒一下，谁知道最先借钱的是谁啊？算了，不管了，卖就是。炸雷了自然有美联储[呵呵] 什么你要搞制造业？你疯了吧，这么玩不香？$SNDK $SKHYNIX My own judgment is that relying solely on the historical patterns of halving cycles to predict when this bull market will start has already lost its reference value, because the structure of Bitcoin holdings has changed this cycle, with ETFs and institutions holding increasing proportions. Price behavior is more in line with the macro-driven logic of traditional financial assets, rather than a parabolic trend driven by retail investor sentiment. So rather than waiting for a clear opportunity, it's better to closely monitor the two leading indicators—ETF fund flows and the Fed's policy path—as they better reflect changes in capital attitudes than any single news event.🐉 AEON On-Chain Quick Review (August 1) $AEON Just finished the first wave of the July 27 simultaneous launch of OKX and Binance Alpha, down 18.91% in 24 hours, RSI at 19.7 has entered deep oversold territory, MACD gives a sell signal, and the price is struggling 📉 around 0.07. This is a typical stage after a new coin launches: "surge—take profits—search for bottoms," with on-chain chips far from settling. Price structure CoinCryptoRank's real-time technical support shows an immediate support of 0.06 and resistance of 0.08. 11 exchanges are tracking quotes, with a 24-hour trading volume of $15.56 million 📊. OKX Orbit analysts' intraday framework is more granular: 🔹 Intraday support zone: 0.072–0.076 is the current long-short stalemate zone, with prices stuck here repeatedly testing buying absorption strength; If it falls, 0.068 is the risk control defense line 🔹 Strong Defense of the Bottom Line: 0.05 is the opening low for issuance and widely recognized by many analysts as a strong defensive line; breaking below this level would mark the end of this round of speculative trading 🔹 Upside retracement levels: 0.083–0.087 is the first resistance (previously a zone of concentrated trading downwards); If it can rise above 0.095 with increased volume, the downward structure will truly reverse, with targets at 0.105–0.112 🔹 Ultimate ceiling: 0.185 is the historical high, with dense trapped positions at high levels, making a second rally extremely difficult Analysis on July 31 pointed out that if the AI sector sell-off continues, prices will test support near 0.07; If it holds, it can consolidate sideways and bottom; if it falls below it, it could pull deeper to 0.065 🌫️. Market players and chip movements AEON's "market maker" is not a single market controller, but a three-way game 🐋 involving project market making + Launchpool participants + early-stage tokens: - Launchpool window expires ⏰ today: Bitget Launchpool locking channel ends August 1 at 19:00 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 1,166,600 AEON, including BGB pool of 1 million and AEON pool of 166,600. After the lock-up is released, some participants may choose to take profits, creating short-term potential selling pressure - Circulation rate is only 18.8 🪙%: total supply 1 billion, circulating about 188 million, FDV about $99.41 million. Over 80% of tokens have not entered circulation, and subsequent unlock cycles will dominate medium- to long-term prices - Volume-to-market cap ratio abnormally high ⚡: Data from July 28 shows nearly $147.9 million in 24-hour trading, about 7.9 times the circulating market cap. This rapid turnover indicates that chips are moving sharply between quantitative and short-term speculative funds, causing price confusion and not a healthy state for mature assets - Early chip trading behavior 🎰: opening to 0.185, then halved to 0.05, a typical "project team market-making push→ large players distributing at high levels → retail investors taking the cuts." Currently, on-market funds are mainly T+0 and short-term fast in/in and out, with no signs of institutional-level long-term positions 💡 Key Observation: The focus in the next 48 hours is on the thickness of the 0.072–0.076 support band. If the Launchpool price does not break below 0.068 after unlocking, it indicates decent support in the secondary market; If it directly falls below 0.05, it signals the end of the new coin speculative rally. Positive 🚀 - Scarcity 🤖 of AI Agent Payment Narratives: AEON is positioned as a universal crypto settlement layer, allowing both humans and AI Agents to pay to real-world merchants, providing real-world application scenarios in the AI sector - YZi Labs Background: Backed by the YZi Labs team, strong narrative endorsement - Simultaneous 🌐 launch of both exchanges: OKX spot + Binance Alpha points airdrop launched simultaneously, providing abundant liquidity inlets - Oversold technical recovery needs 📈: RSI 19.7 is deeply oversold, hourly chart shows a bullish divergence, and the probability of a technical retracement is accumulating - Small circulating float with high elasticity: Small circulating market cap means a small amount of capital can drive significant gains. If the AI sector hotspot returns, the rebound will far exceed market expectations - Bitget Launchpool incentives 💰: A prize pool of 1.1666 million AEON attracts users to lock BGB and AEON, reducing short-term circulating selling pressure Negative ⚠️ news - AI sector collectively took profits 📉: On July 30, AEON was still on the AI sector gainers' chart, while on July 31, AI tokens such as OLAXBT (-35.29%) and REI Network (-32.46%) collectively plunged, with funds rapidly withdrawing from the high-beta AI narrative - Harsh 🌧️ market environment: BTC fell 3.16% to $62,609, the total crypto market cap shrank by 2.5%, and risk assets fell across the board - Hanging Sword ⚔️ unlocked with only 18.8% circulation: Over 80% of tokens remain uncirculated. If the unlock pace becomes more frequent, each release could potentially impact the price - Warning of abnormally high 🚨 trading volume: The transaction-to-market value ratio is nearly 8 times, a typical high-turnover gaming scene, dominated by quantitative programs, putting retail investors at a disadvantage Comprehensive judgment $AEON Currently, the market is in the "deep turnover and bottom-seeking phase after new coin launches," which is not a fundamental-driven steady market 🎲. 0.072–0.076 is the intraday boundary between bulls and bears; holding above could trigger a rebound toward 0.083–0.087; If 0.068 is breached, the 0.05 strong support line will be targeted; breaking it again would mean the speculative rally is over. $AEON #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rose 9% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance missed expectations, but its stock price rose 9% #以太坊主网十一周年: Eleven years of uninterrupted operation and ecological achievements Ethereum mainnet 11 years old: from Frontier to the Rollup era, zero downtime + 148.8 billion stablecoins lying on-chain Brothers on the planet, 7/30 is the birthday of Ethereum Mainnet—the launch of the Frontier Genesis Block in 2015, and yesterday marked exactly 11 years. What has it accomplished over these 11 years? Just pick a few and you'll find them tough: • 11 years and zero years of global shutdown: survived DAO forks, Shanghai withdrawals, Merge to PoS, multiple hard forks of Dencun/Pectra/Fusaka, and the base layer never crashed • Leader in stablecoin settlement layers: The mainnet supports ~$148.8 billion in stablecoins (USDT + USDC + others), accounting for nearly half of the global total; RWA on-chain reached ~15.5 billion USD, with 1,552 assets ranking first among all public chains • DeFi TVL still dominates: L1 single-chain TVL is ~$41.2 billion, accounting for 55% of the network, eight times that of second-place BSC/Tron (each ~$4.9 billion). • Execution layer moved out, settlement layer stayed on mainnet: L2 averaged 24.61 million transactions per day≈ 13.9 times the mainnet's 1.77 million transactions, with Rollups eating up about 95% of execution volume, and the mainnet degraded into a "security + DA + finality" foundation • So cheap it's not like L1: Gas cap is 60 million (doubling in two years), regular transfers are ~$0.20, ERC-20 is ~$0.52, swaps are ~$3.79 • Institutional channels opened: BlackRock ETHB and Morgan Stanley entered the market with staking ETPs at 0.14% fees, with spot ETFs cumulatively inflowing over $11.2 billion, and some products began distributing staking yields But next to the birthday cake was a knife: • Mainnet daily revenue is only ~$330,000, while Base's daily fee revenue is $734,000, surpassing mainnet. The value capture problem of "L2 eating meat, L1 drinking soup" remains unsolved • ETH current price ~1860-1920, down 61% from the 2025/8 high of 4946. The ecosystem is racing, the token price is playing dead, and on the 11th anniversary, no extra sweetness was given • In the second half of the year, Glamsterdam's upgrade will promote parallel execution + blob scaling, with a gas cap pushing to 100 million+. Whether the "settlement layer monetization" can be rounded will determine the valuation model for ETH in the second decade Eleven years ago, Vitalik released a "World Computer" PPT. Eleven years later, this machine hasn't shut down, rolled back, or issued new market stools to rescue the market. On the chain are hundreds of billions of dollars in liabilities (stablecoins) and institutional RWAs—it may not be the sexiest chain, but it most resembles the "on-chain Fed + Nasdaq clearing backend."Guys, GODS has completed a textbook-level Pump & Dump over the past three days. On July 29, it hit a stage low of $0.01891, and on July 31, it surged dramatically by 67.87%. The short-term amplitude nearly doubled, and it has now fallen back to around $0.029. This 67% bullish candlestick lacks fundamental support—no new partnerships, no product launches, no major community developments. GODS has a daily trading volume of only $180,000–$230,000, a market capitalization of about $10 million, and nearly 79% of circulating tokens. With extremely low liquidity, a large rally can be driven up with just a few hundred thousand US dollars, meaning the market makers are pushing prices to sell off, and many retail investors are trapped in the short term. Triple pressures combined with heavy price blows The overall GameFi sector remains sluggish: GODS has dropped nearly 80% compared to a year ago, and the sector lacks sustained narrative momentum. Bitget has officially been delisted: GODS/USDT trading pair will be shut down on May 22, 2026, withdrawal services will end on August 22, and liquidity channels will continue to shrink. Parent company resource reduction: Immutable laid off 29 game developers and outsourced Gods Unchained, shifting the group's focus to AI platforms. The project continues to operate normally, but internal resource investment continues to shrink. 79% of tokens entering circulation is a double-edged sword: no forward unlocked selling pressure, but also no long-term locked chips acting as a support force during market downturns #以太坊主网十一周年: Eleven years of uninterrupted operation and ecological achievements On July 30, 2015, the genesis block was born, marking the official eleventh anniversary of the Ethereum mainnet. After enduring bull and bear cycles and multiple major upgrades, it has operated steadily for eleven years without interruption, establishing itself as the world's largest underlying smart contract infrastructure. Reviewing the core achievements of eleven years: From the initial concept of the "World Computer," step by step it has developed a complete ecosystem. It has given rise to DeFi, NFT, and DAO sectors, supporting the vast majority of stablecoin circulation; Completed historic mergers, switching from PoW to PoS, significantly reducing energy consumption; Shanghai upgraded to open staking and withdrawals, Dencun upgraded to empower Layer 2 expansion. Today, second-layer networks like Arbitrum and Base are thriving, with numerous RWA tokenization projects launched, and spot ETH ETFs opening channels for traditional capital. Ethereum is transforming into the core global digital asset settlement layer. Long-term value has a solid foundation Eleven years of continuous online service, experiencing hacking incidents, market crashes, and major consensus mechanism overhauls, fully validating network resilience. The innovation model and asset standards of the entire crypto sector are mostly defined by Ethereum, and short-term market fluctuations cannot shake the foundation of the ecosystem. The unavoidable realities of the present day There has long been debate in the market: Will the massive transfer of transactions to Layer 2 and the splitting of mainnet gas revenue weaken ETH's value capture capability? My view: Layer2 is not a competitor; it belongs to Ethereum's scaling strategy. All Layer 2 transactions ultimately return to mainnet settlement, with the layered architecture following a long-term approach. But in the short term, the cycle for ecosystem prosperity to pass on to coin prices will lengthen, making it difficult to rely on annual narratives to drive a unilateral surge. Anniversaries are more of an emotional milestone; don't blindly rely on positive news to be bullish. Long-term logic: Ecosystem continues to evolve, institutional compliance channels are opening, RWA narratives keep advancing, and the long-term growth story remains complete; Short-term constraints: The market remains dominated by Fed liquidity and capital flows, making it difficult to change the original volatile rhythm on the anniversary. Competition in the public chain sector continues to intensify, with various new public blockchains continuously diverting users. To maintain its advantage, Ethereum must implement scaling, reduce usage costs, and attract traditional financial assets to the blockchain—all of which are indispensable. Positive expectations are easily digested in advance; avoid chasing gains during the anniversary hot spot. Long-term positioning shows signs of ecosystem sustained implementation, while short-term trading still follows market funds and macro data.$ETH Ethereum has been stagnant for a long time, mainly because funds are seeking safety and are prioritizing Bitcoin. Ethereum ETFs continue to see capital outflows, lacking institutional growth. Combined with layer-2 network off-flow transactions, token burns have decreased, weakening deflationary logic. At the same time, public blockchains compete to divert funds, and without independent positive factors, they can only passively follow the broader market, making it difficult to achieve independent upward momentum. $BTC $SNDK #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons 🐉 $GRVT On-chain Quick Review (August 1) GRVT just ended its TGE and airdrop claim window, with its 24-hour trading volume surging to $290 million (an increase of 45,744%). The current price is fluctuating around 0.27, in a typical high-volatility 🎢 period for new coin price discovery. Price structure CoinCryptoRank technically shows immediate support at 0.26, resistance at 0.29, RSI at 56.5 as neutral, and MACD as a buy signal 📊. CoinGecko data shows the 24-hour range of 0.2195–0.2932, with a full-session high of 0.4545 and a low of 0.2195 both formed on the July 30 TGE day. 🔹 If it fails to hold 0.26, look to the TGE's strong resistance at 0.15; If it falls below the target level, airdrop holders will fully cash out to the target area of 0.10 🔹 After breaking above 0.29, the 24-hour high of 0.46 is the true stage ceiling Market players and chip movements $GRVT Currently, there is no traditional single market maker; instead, there is a three-way game 🐋 of airdrop holders + market makers + early investors: - Airdrop holders face the greatest hidden selling pressure: after claiming started on July 30, some users cashed out immediately, which is the core reason the price fell from 0.46 to 0.27 - Market makers actively build order books: Bitget and 13 other exchanges launch simultaneously, negative maker fees attract liquidity, CoinGecko tracks 18 exchanges across 65 markets, KuCoin single firm depth accounts for 39.1% - Key signal: If daily trading volume falls below $100 million in the next 48 hours, it often signals a recession triggered by airdrops and a deep price pullback 📉 Positive 🚀 - The world's first regulated DEX narrative, Bermuda BMA license + ZKsync technology endorsement - 13 exchanges have launched intensively, with Coinbase added to its asset roadmap - CEO posts emphasizing predictable transaction fees, with Stable Funding Perps product narrative targeting DeFi cost pain points - MACD buy signal, RSI not overbought, technically still upside - TVL is about $37.57 million, with an MC/TVL of only 0.86, indicating relatively healthy valuations Negative ⚠️ news - August 29 Major Unlock Test: Two more rounds of unlocking in late August and November, with supply and circulation surges testing market support - FDV valuation controversy: Pre-market 320M+, Polymarket gives a 90% probability of valuation at 200M, with significant disagreement among traders - Security transparency questioned: Lack of publicly verifiable security audits and technical documentation has been classified as high-risk - Absolute TVL is relatively small: about $37.57 million, still relatively thin compared to leading Perp DEXs - Narrative reliance on the fading Musk effect: purely speculative driven with a lack of sustained fundamental buying Comprehensive judgment $GRVT Currently, the market is a speculative pulse catalyzed by airdrops, not a fundamentally steady market 🎲. 0.26 is the intraday boundary between bulls and bears; holding it could lead to a push toward 0.29–0.31; If it falls, 0.15 will be the true strong defensive line. 💡 The unlocking on August 29 marks the first major fundamental test. Before unlocking, the market is dominated by airdrop participants taking profits; After unlocking, circulating supply will jump. If support weakens, FDV may slip from the Base scenario (0.15–0.30) to the Bear scenario (0.05–0.12). The two most noteworthy factors: (1) Whether daily trading volume can hold 100 million USD over the next 48 hours; (2) Daily closing 🔍 at the 0.26 support level. During the high volatility phase of new coins, position management is far more important than direction judgment. The above is an objective interpretation of on-chain data and technical aspects and does not constitute investment advice. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks #Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons As I often say, in the crypto world, cultivation is fundamentally important. Only when the principal is stable can one be qualified to discuss the market and rise and fall. Stablecoins, on the other hand, serve as the principal for the vast majority of traders, and whether their foundation is solid is something to be examined carefully. Recently, Tether released its Q2 report, and there has been much speculation about a $1.5 billion quarterly net profit. However, I believe that the two details beyond profit are truly worth examining: first, USDT's circulating supply increased by only 446 million during the quarter, showing nearly stagnant growth; second, excess reserves were nearly halved from the previous quarter to $4.11 billion, while the proportion of gold and BTC in reserves continued to rise. Let's start with the stagnation in circulation. Many attribute this to the share of diverted shares from competitors like USDC, but in my view, this is a direct reflection of the stock game in the entire crypto market. The scarcity of new capital entrants, repeated circulation of funds on the exchange, narrowing volatility of mainstream coins, and a sharp decline in the profitability of altcoins are the most direct proof. Water without a source rarely stirs waves, which is why many traders have recently shifted to tokenized stocks—where there is liquidity, there are trading opportunities. Further discussion on changes in reserve structure. Gold reserves increased to 146.2 tons, BTC holdings rose to 98,933 coins, and reserve assets shifted from a single dollar asset to a diversified allocation. The pros and cons of this move are clear: the advantage is to diversify the risk of a single asset, and the long-term appreciation of gold and BTC can also increase reserve returns; The hidden risk is that these assets have large price fluctuations, and in extreme market conditions, fluctuations in net reserve value may actually heighten market concerns about stablecoin repayment capabilities. It's like storing grain in a Taoist temple: storing all the brown rice is safe but unlikely to appreciate in value; mixing in some dried ingredients is good but requires careful attention to prevent moisture and mold. Every measure is a matter of knowledge. Will this report change views on USDT? My answer is: don't blindly trust, don't panic excessively. They won't convert all their assets into USDT for long-term holding just because of a profit report, nor will they completely deny their value just because of reserve shrinkage. After all, to this day, USDT remains the most liquid and widely accepted stablecoin on the exchange. My own approach is: the liquidity needed for daily trading is kept within the exchange; Idle funds in the medium to long term should be diversified into mainstream spot coins and hard currency targets, without all principal anchored to a single stablecoin. Cultivation teaches vigilance in times of peace, and the same applies to transactions. Don't just focus on others' bright profits; pay close attention to the depth of the foundations at the bottom, so you can stand firm and go far amid market ups and downs. Friends, after this quarterly report, has your USDT holdings been adjusted? What metrics do you value most when you judge that stablecoins are unsafe? $BTC On July 30, 2026, a piece of news that went viral fell silent throughout the AI investment community: Former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner (known in the industry as "Leo") owns the hedge fund Situational Awareness. Since its establishment in September 2024, it has heavily invested in AI infrastructure through high leverage, achieving cumulative returns exceeding 2000% since its founding. In the first half of 2026, portfolio returns will reach 439%, with assets under management swelling to around $45 billion by early July; However, during the deep pullback in global chip stocks in July 2026, margin calls were triggered, and most of the public equity portfolio positions were taken over by Ken Griffin's Citadel in a single block trade, effectively exiting the public equity market. AI stock gods have not been "liquidated or deregistered," but their public market status has collapsed. Looking back at the end of July 2026, this incident carried even more weight than the rumors at the time—it wasn't just one person's failure, but a microcosm of the fate of an entire generation of "AI momentum trading." 1. How God created it In 2023–2024, ChatGPT ignited the computing power chain, and everyone asked: Is AI a bubble or a revolution? Leo did something against consensus but extremely smart—leaving OpenAI, leveraging the connections and influence of Sam Altman's circle and Silicon Valley's top AI expertise, in September 2024 he raised a hedge fund focused on AI infrastructure (chips/storage/power/data centers/computing power leasing), using high leverage to bet on "computing power chain" stocks like Nvidia, TSMC, SanDisk, CoreWeave, and bloom energy. Buying hashrate chains during that time window wasn't about Leo being too godlike, but about the track giving money away: Nvidia closed at $195.04 on July 30, 2026, with a market cap of about $4.72 trillion (a pullback from the mid-year high, but still among the world's top two by market cap) TSMC ADR closed at $403.31 on July 30, a monthly drawdown of -15.55% in July The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 92% over the past 12 months, but in July 2026, it pulled back nearly 20% from its June high, entering a technical bear market Leo speaks with performance: since its founding, it has > 2000%, and in the first half of 2026, +439%. Among managers around 45 years old, he is an absolute outlier, post-95 generation is legendary, with AUM surging from hundreds of millions to $45 billion. 2. How did the crash occur? Many people think that 2000% funds keep getting bigger, but the truth is: the more profitable the fund, the faster it dies. The problem lies in three things piling up: 1. Leverage is too high SA public stock positions once leveraged about four times the base capital, while also holding a bunch of software stocks shorts; In July, AI hardware declined while software valuations recovered, facing blows from both sides. 2. Position concentration + liquidity mismatch Heavy positions in small- and mid-cap/semi-liquid assets like SanDisk, CoreWeave, and Bloom Energy, after reaching 45 billion yuan, sold orders immediately broke through bids—a typical "run-style" deleveraging. 3. Institutional LPs may withdraw due to high prices When net asset value surged and AUM surpassed $10 billion, funds from the Jane Street and Citadel groups began to settle accounts: strategy capacity couldn't hold up, drawdowns couldn't be controlled, and all the funds crossed the line. Ken Griffin-level funds taking over his positions at the high level essentially represent a "liquidation buyout," not a "salvage sale"—on July 30, 2026, block trades will be implemented and SA will publicly clear their portfolio. Leo is not without struggles, but faced with 4x leverage + margin calls + liquidity exhaustion, any belief in "AI long-term correctness" is crushed by liquidation machines. 3. The three truths it gives us First, "God's" performance = the era β× personal courage × leverage, not pure Alpha. At least half of the 2000% is the β of the AI computing power chain from 2023 to 2026. Buying Nvidia, TSMC, and storage at the same window would multiply several times in the closing eye. Scale is the enemy of returns—alpha that can be eaten at $100 million, but $45 billion cannot, only friction. Second, the sharpest knife is the easiest to break. Ultimate return + extreme concentration + extreme leverage = extreme risk. SA is a typical "high odds, high volatility" structure, betting correctly to become a god and wrong for forced draws. Many LPs only look at returns and not drawdowns, which is like carrying a torch into a gas station. Third, true experts will proactively "buy" after making a profit. Ken Griffin is buying at high levels, not out of admiration for Leo, but because he's calculated the GP capacity ceiling at the end of the bubble—the same 2000% fund should actively lock up and lock in returns by the end of 2025, rather than holding out to 45 billion and getting called by margin. Leo confiscated it, and leveraged it for him. 4. In August 2026, how should we think about AI? Let's zoom in to today: Nvidia ~ $4.7 trillion market cap fluctuates, global chip stocks collectively pulled back in July, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 20% from its June high in a technical bear market TSMC's ADR pulled down 15+ percentage points in July, but orders for advanced AI processes remain uninterrupted In July, the A-share AI computing chip index plunged from 2254 points to 1699 points, a month-on-month -25% decrease, with storage/optical module/PCB stocks halved Capital expenditure narrative shakes: Meta sells idle computing power, cloud company CAPEX approaches cash flow ceiling, market shifts from "burning cash" to "competing on ROIC and GPU utilization" What does this mean? AI will not disappear, but the window for getting rich for the "AI stock god" will be fully consumed by the top players in 2023–2025. Entering now, you either profit from cognitive gap (extremely difficult), profit from compound interest (extremely slow), or profit from emotional rebound (extremely risky). For ordinary people and investors, three sentences to conclude: Don't chase after the "gods"; chasing gods means death. Any person or fund that has been deified is approaching the cycle peak—Leo is a sample in July 2026. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price reversed by 9% #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 $265 million flowed out, and what really matters is not "how much has flown," but where the money is flowing On July 31, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $265.37 million, just erasing the $233.13 million net inflow from the previous day. Looking at the last five trading days together, the cumulative net outflow of funds was about $61.52 million, indicating institutional funds are repeatedly pulling rather than retreating continuously. This round of selling pressure mainly focused on three leading products: BlackRock IBIT had a net outflow of $122.66 million, accounting for about 46% of the day's total outflow; Fidelity's FBTC saw $54.78 million in outflows, and Grayscale's GBTC saw an outflow of $52.63 million. BITB and ARKB saw outflows of 17.77 million and 17.54 million USD respectively, while most other ETFs saw little significant capital change that day. At the time of the outflow, ETFs still had a single-day turnover of $2.67 billion, with prices across all products generally falling by nearly 3%, while Bitcoin fell back to about $62,972. Meanwhile, the total net asset value of ETFs fell from $78.76 billion the previous day to $76.29 billion, a decrease of about $2.47 billion in one day. Of this, only $265 million came from redemptions; the rest was mostly due to the shrinkage of net asset value caused by Bitcoin's price decline. Therefore, a single day of outflows does indicate that risk appetite is cooling, but it cannot yet be directly interpreted as a full-scale institutional withdrawal. Currently, the cumulative net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs remains at $51.32 billion, accounting for about 6.04% of Bitcoin's market capitalization in total assets; IBIT alone has recorded a cumulative net inflow of $60.48 billion. What really needs to be watched out is whether a resonance of "price decline + continuous net outflow" will occur later. If funds continue to withdraw in the coming days, the $62,000 area may come under pressure again; If the outflow quickly turns positive, this time it seems more like institutions actively reducing positions in a highly volatile environment. Daily data represents sentiment; continuous data sets the direction. Whether ETF funds can flow back next week may be more important than guessing a candlestick line. $BTC $ETH #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9% I thought carefully about why Apple has been so strong lately. I think a very important reason is that it has become a "defensive asset" among the Big Seven players. As Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon all keep raising their AI capital expenditures, the market is starting to worry about free cash flow, return on investment, and whether such large investments can be absorbed in the coming years. Apple, however, is at a completely different pace. Unlike other tech giants, which spend hundreds of billions annually building AI infrastructure, it maintains very solid cash flow and returns on capital that have not been significantly dragged down by AI investments. So when the market began to worry about overheating AI investment, Apple actually became the target capital preferred to allocate to. This doesn't mean Apple's AI is doing the best, but rather that when the market shifts from "telling stories" to "looking at cash flow," capital will revalue its robust business model higher. I believe this is one of the reasons why Apple has clearly outperformed many AI giants recently. $AAPL #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 The risks of U.S. Treasury bonds are already visible to the naked eye, so will the Fed really raise interest rates in September? Raising interest rates would push up U.S. Treasury yields and increase the U.S. Treasury's financing costs. ┈➤ The "ambiguity" between the Federal Reserve and the federal government Although the Federal Reserve is independent, the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury Department is also somewhat ambiguous. ╰✦ The Federal Reserve remits net profits to the federal government On one hand, although the Fed is self-sustaining, it must hand over the remaining net profits to the U.S. government. The U.S. government will not provide any funding to the Federal Reserve. Moreover, after covering costs, paying dividends to member commercial banks, covering previous losses, and statutory retained earnings, the Fed will hand over the vast majority of net profits to the Treasury. ╰✦ Most of the Fed's earnings come from U.S. Treasuries On the other hand, most of the Fed's earnings come from holding Treasury bonds issued by the Treasury (under normal circumstances). The Federal Reserve released dollar liquidity by purchasing U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), Buying/reducing holdings of U.S. Treasuries is one of the main forms of QE/QT. Therefore, the Fed has long held a large amount of U.S. Treasuries, and Treasury interest is the main source of the Fed's returns. Additionally, when the Fed buys MBS during QE and continues to hold them for a period afterward, MBS can also generate interest income. But in most years, U.S. Treasuries earn more interest. As the bank of commercial banks, the Federal Reserve provides discounting, loans, and other services, and can also generate returns. But unless during a crisis, this part of the income is usually lower. So overall, U.S. Treasuries are one of the main sources of revenue for the Federal Reserve. So, will the Federal Reserve not care about U.S. debt and the U.S. government raising interest rates? ┈➤ Does inflation mean you have to raise interest rates? Brother Bee has analyzed countless times: inflation caused by oil prices cannot be completely cured by interest rate hikes. Rate hikes mainly serve to curb expectations of wage increases and curb the "wage-inflation" spiral. Therefore, interest rate hike expectations may also have this effect. Whether to raise rates in September still requires two months of data to watch, which is July and August. If CPI does not worsen, the Fed may remain unchanged. ┈➤ Final thoughts On one hand, Brother Bee does not believe a rate hike in September is a foregone conclusion. With this kind of relationship between the Federal Reserve and the federal government, would they really have no reservations about the US submitting to the US? On the other hand, expectations for a rate hike in September have already priced in, and the rise in U.S. Treasury yields essentially means the market is already raising rates. Brother Bee believes balance sheet reduction may be more suitable than raising interest rates. Because balance sheet reduction also brings tightening expectations, it helps suppress wage growth expectations and helps curb the "wage-inflation" spiral. Looking at the monthly and month-on-month growth rate of US wages, wages do not show an accelerated trend. The difference between balance sheet reduction and rate hikes is that each rate hike is a one-time tightening, while balance sheet reduction is gradual. During balance sheet reduction, the U.S. Treasuries held by the Federal Reserve are automatically redeemed upon maturity and are no longer fully purchased. This gradually reduces demand for U.S. Treasuries and has a relatively smaller impact. Walsh's original stance was to shrink the balance sheet first, then cut interest rates. Of course, this is Feng Xiong's personal view; the Fed's decision may still depend on the U.S.-Iran relationship and inflation trends in July-August.📊 On-chain Analyst Perspective: $SLX Real-Time Market Analysis of Tokens $SLX is the native token of Solstice, the DeFi yield layer protocol in the Solana ecosystem, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens and an initial circulation of about 234 million. The project was incubated by Deus X Capital (assets under management exceeding $1 billion), with a TVL exceeding $530 million and a three-year audited live trading record. The current market price is around 0.084, down nearly 88% from the ATH (about 0.69), and down over 58% from the TGE opening price (about 0.20). After launching in June, it experienced a complete roller coaster of "400% surge→ 88% drop." --- 🔻 Support and resistance levels Resistance above (concentrated selling pressure zone): · 0.10-0.11: The first hurdle of the short-term rebound; a breakout requires increased volume in coordination · 0.14-0.16: Early ladder bottom area, historically trapped units dense · 0.18-0.19: MA7 and MA25 moving averages are in the suppression zone. Only above this range would it indicate a bullish trend reversal, but the trend remains bearish for now · 0.25-0.30: Medium-term rebound to expand target range Below support (bullish defense line): · 0.08-0.084: The current price area, which is also the vacuum zone below 0.10-0.11 · 0.06-0.07: If current support is broken, the next downside target · 0.04-0.05: The ultimate demand zone under extreme panic scenarios The daily chart remains below MA7, the 4H chart is below MA7 and MA25, and the moving averages continue to decline—sellers are still in control of the trend. Although selling momentum has weakened, a confirmed bullish reversal has yet to occur. --- 🐋 Market maker movements on the chain Chip structure features: · Contract address 42mfEQ7fGxotWbgsB81Qpdbf65txBTEoZB4PffknnsWZ holds 266 million SLX, currently the largest holding address · Binance wallet addresses hold approximately 10.78 million SLX · South Korea's two major exchanges, Bithumb and Upbit, have simultaneously listed SLX's KRW, BTC, and USDT trading pairs Market behavior signals: · After finding support near 0.14 on June 17, the price surged dramatically 300% to 0.69 within 10 days · But the subsequent pullback is equally aggressive—a parabolic rise is often followed by a parabolic decline · The CVD (Cumulative Volume Spread) remains in negative territory, indicating that the rebound momentum mainly comes from passive short closing and retail long positions entering, with the main force not yet fully ramping up on volume · The main players are currently in the stage of digesting and unlocking selling pressure and steadily accumulating shares --- ✅ Positive factors 1. $1 billion AI infrastructure collaboration: Solstice and TensorX announced a $1 billion financing arrangement for on-chain AI computing infrastructure, targeting European sovereign AI projects 2. aiUSX New Product Launch: A yield-generating asset for AI treasury cash management, integrating AI, RWA, and DeFi into a single ecosystem 3. Collective listing of Korean exchanges: Bithumb and Upbit simultaneously listed SLX, opening liquidity gateways in East Asia 4. Over $500 million in TVL+ institutional endorsements: supported by Anchorage Digital and Deus X Capital 5. Oversold rebound momentum: Down 88% from the ATH, indicating room for sentiment recovery in an extremely oversold state --- ❌ Bearish factors (⚠️ extremely high risk) 1. Price plunged 88% from its ATH: from 0.69 to the current 0.084, marking a significant reduction in market capitalization 2. Massive unlocking continues to exert pressure: Early investors and team unlock schedules during token allocation have created ongoing selling pressure. FDV is about four times the market cap, and future token issuances will continue to put pressure on prices 3. Severe liquidity shortage: The team admits that "due to all supply release, the spread of selling SLX is now very large." 4. S1 release postponed to July 9: The market's expected unlocking selling pressure was only delayed, not eliminated 5. Technically, the market remains in a bearish trend: The price is far from the key 0.18-0.19 level, and any rebound is technically just a pullback, not a reversal --- 🎯 Comprehensive assessment $SLX Currently in the awkward window of "oversold to the extreme vs. unlocking selling pressure that hasn't fully digested." On the fundamental side, $1 billion in AI cooperation + $500 million TVL + institutional endorsements provide solid support; But on the chip side, an 88% drop + 4x FDV premium + liquidity exhaustion means any rebound faces the question of "who will take over." In the short term, focus on defending 0.08-0.084—if it holds, it may rebound and recover to 0.10-0.11; if it breaks below high volume, it may accelerate to 0.06-0.07. The upper 0.14-0.16 is a strong resistance zone; before it breaks above 0.18, all gains should be seen as rebounds rather than reversals. ⚠️ This is not investment advice. SLX is currently in a state of multiple overlapping risks: "strong AI narrative vs. unlocking real selling pressure + liquidity exhaustion + 88% drop." FDV is four times the market cap, meaning a large number of tokens have yet to enter circulation in the future. Liquidity depth is severely lacking, with frequent slippage and false breakouts; participation in any direction requires extreme caution. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks ETH falls below 1900, BTC volatility hits a January low: AI data centers are draining the crypto market? On Saturday (August 1), the crypto market was unusually quiet. According to Yahoo According to Finance data, Bitcoin opened at $64,724 on July 31, up 1.3% from the previous day, before retreating to around $63,652; Ethereum opened at $1,917 and then fell to $1,877. CoinMarketCap shows ETH is temporarily quoted at $1,904, with crypto.news headlines bluntly stating, "Ethereum falls below $1,900, can 1,850 hold?" " Even more noteworthy is volatility. CoinDesk cited trader observations saying Bitcoin's intraday volatility has narrowed to its tightest since January this year—"Calm has returned, and the conditions for volatility explosions have returned." Looking at the long scale, BTC's current price is about $63,900 (OKX), about 49% down from the all-time high of $126,272 set on October 6, 2025. The market has been consolidating below the top for nearly a decade, with both bulls and bears holding their breath. Beneath the calm surface, there are signs of selling pressure. Crypto.news reports that more and more publicly listed "crypto treasuries" are turning to financing AI data centers: Quantum Solutions and Hyperscale Companies like Data plan to sell ETH to fund AI computing power facilities. Take Hyperscale Data as an example: its board has raised the ETH sale limit to 4,375 ETH as of October 30, about 66% of its June holdings, with the remaining 3,050 also staked. This logic is worth pondering: the AI narrative is becoming the new blood pump for the crypto market. Since 2025, AI data centers have become the fiercest capital expenditure area. Listed companies holding large amounts of BTC and ETH have found that rather than lying flat and waiting for price rebounds, it's better to convert their chips into cash flow to chase the AI trend. This explains why ETH lacks buying around $1,900 and also makes the market's expected "volume rally" slow to materialize—incremental funds are diverted by AI infrastructure. Regulators are also unsettled. New York State's full-scale lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi is seen as a cleanup of the "event contract" track. Combined with repeated regulation of stablecoins and tokenized ETFs, institutional funds tend to wait and see in the short term, making the pattern of low volatility and low trading volume unlikely to be broken in the short term. My judgment is: the current market is in a typical build-up phase—after volatility is compressed to its extreme, it will inevitably be released in a certain direction, depending on whether selling pressure (listed companies' AI financing needs) or incremental funds (ETF inflows, interest rate cut expectations) prevails first. For ordinary investors, rather than betting on the direction, it's better to wait for the trend to be confirmed after volatility surges; And the new variable of "listed companies selling coins to build AI data centers" deserves to be included in the weekly tracking list—it may be the most undervalued source of selling pressure in this cycle.#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 Key data: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, a new 19-year high, with long-term yields continuing to climb. Underlying logic: The US government issued large bonds but lacked sufficient funds to take over; combined with oil prices supporting inflation and the strong resilience of the AI economy, the market fully priced in high interest rates for the long term, while short-term rate cut expectations were completely dashed. Impact on the crypto sector: Long-term bonds with high yields continue to pump market liquidity, suppressing risk asset valuations. This is the core reason why recent positive market conditions have not risen, rebounds are weak, and the market continues to bottom out. Trading approach: Macro liquidity is relatively tight, with no one-sided bull market opportunities. Maintain cautious observation, avoid blindly speculating on rebounds, and patiently wait for interest rate turning points and liquidity recovery before making arrangements. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9% These represent only personal views and do not constitute investment advice.The sudden offline official domain and the upcoming large unlock pushed $MMT to the brink of liquidity exhaustion, yet on-chain turnover rates have surged abnormally. The token price is facing dense order resistance near 0.25, while the 24-hour turnover rate surged to 45% as the daily chart closes with a long upper shadow. Behind the net outflow data from exchanges, 70% of funds flowed to two newly added specific addresses, indicating that funds are maintaining active trading through swap behavior. This on-chain inversion occurs simultaneously with large players transferring tokens to trading platforms, indicating that major funds are using fake liquidity booms to cover their shipments. If the price can break through the previous resistance at 0.26 with increased volume and reverse funds converting into genuine buying inflows, it may trigger a short squeeze, but the official domain name relaunch is a prerequisite for this path to work. If the price breaks below the 0.23 cost support line and the 4.93 million tokens unlocked on August 4 enter the market as expected, liquidity stamping will be unavoidable unless new institutional funds take over the market. If the project team publicly clarifies the domain status on social channels, it will directly disprove the current market speculation about the team's disappearance, thereby reversing the risk-averse sentiment of funds. The most important thing to watch in the next 7 days is whether the funds from those two newly added counterfeit addresses will shift toward a complete one-way outflow around the August 4th unlock node. #Strategy终止逢低买币, Q2 paper loss of 8.2 billion yuan #"AI Stock God" fund clears positions, Micron rose over 15% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期 in a single day, but its stock price plunged sharply after hours $SOL 73, bounced again. Previously, I called for money to run thirteen times and bounced eleven times. This time, with a rebound, a significant net increase in large orders within fifteen minutes, with active contract buying accounting for over 70%. But within three hours, all twelve shares were still negative, and not a single one was flipped. The number of borrowers has increased by 60%, and whale positions are decreasing. Every time it bounces back, it's leveraged investors and retail investors who take over, while big players run in. It bounced, but it was done. #sol $SOL #微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Microsoft's single-day market value surged nearly $450 billion, setting a record in the US stock market. This is not emotional speculation; the financial report has once and for all dispelled doubts about "AI being a bottomless money pit." Q4 revenue reached $90 billion, Azure growth rate was 43%, annual cloud revenue exceeded $100 billion for the first time, and Copilot paid seats surpassed 30 million—AI has moved from a PowerPoint concept to cash flow. More importantly, capital expenditure was lower than expected, temporarily closing the market's biggest fear of "input-output mismatch," which is why it saw the largest single-day increase since 2018. Currently, this marks the transition of cloud + AI from the expectation phase to the realization phase, but don't chase the high after one day of gains. Wait for a pullback to the mid-term moving average before adjusting your position. The main focus is on whether Azure's growth rate can stay stable above 40%.Bitcoin News: Bitcoin "Holding Steady," South Korea's KOSPI Records a Record 17% Rebound — The Decoupling of the Crypto Market from Chip Trading Reflects in Both Directions On Friday, despite the crypto market showing little obvious reaction, Bitcoin was still close to $64,300; Meanwhile, South Korea's KOSPI surged sharply, with a peak gain of 17%—the largest single-day gain in history—rebounding from a three-day plunge that had plunged the index to over 40% below its June 19 peak. Samsung and SK Hynix both rose more than 23%, TSMC rose 10%, and the Nasdaq 100 ended a six-day losing streak after the largest rebound among U.S. chip stocks in over a year. After hours, Amazon rose nearly 10% on strong cloud business earnings. Apple fell 6% due to lowered sales forecasts caused by supply shortages. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has only seen slight fluctuations, briefly surging to $65,300 in early Asian trading before pulling back within an hour. Ethereum was at $1,907, XRP at $1.08, Solana at $74, and DOGE at $0.07. BNB was the only major position to achieve a meaningful weekly gain, rising 3% for the week at $590. Most major coins remain on the decline this week. Delinkage — Bitcoin followed the decline as chips declined, now exiting the rebound During July, Bitcoin and semiconductors were highly aligned (fluctuating with chip trading fluctuations), but now they remain inactive and do not participate in the rebound, marking the most analytic market structure change this week. China's DUV lithography technology breakthrough caused Samsung and SK Hynix to fall 23% within two trading days, pushing Kospi down from its peak to -40%; Bitcoin also fell along with it. Bitcoin withstood Thursday's $797 billion sell-off in U.S. mega-cap tech stocks. Bitcoin also withstood South Korea's worst two-day crash of the year (midweek). Now, Bitcoin has exited a record 17% Kospi rebound, as well as the largest chip stock rally in over a year. In Bitcoin's price history, asymmetric correlation—following declines but not rising ones—is not a new phenomenon. It usually appears during periods of macroeconomic headwinds that last longer than the specific catalysts driving stock market rebounds. The 17% rebound in the Korea Composite Index (Kospi) was mainly driven by South Korea's emergency market stabilization measures—leveraged ETF restrictions, increased trading costs, government promises of further stabilization—and compounded by broader semiconductor easing trading following the worst period of AI trading revaluation, which stabilized the situation. These are the specific catalysts for the stock market and cannot address Bitcoin's own headwinds: the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision and its forward-looking guidance on the probability of a September rate hike, oil prices above $90 after the Iran-Jordan missile launch escalation, and the structural macro pattern of inflation at 4.1% versus the Fed's 2% target. Weekly scorecard—most major markets declined The weekly performance reflects Bitcoin's "flat" Friday masking a weak underlying tone. HYPE fell 5% over seven trading days, Solana and XRP each dropped 3%, and Bitcoin fell 2%. Ethereum and Dogecoin rose 1%—the only major coins still in the positive—while BNB also rose 3%. After a 10-10 divergence on CoinDesk 20 on Wednesday, the market entered a week: despite Kospi's record rebound, Nasdaq ending its losing streak, and Amazon's strong cloud performance, most major crypto assets still declined. This weekly weakness is more driven by macro factors rather than crypto-specific factors—and the specific macro drivers have not been offset by the rebound in semiconductor stocks. After-hours: Amazon +10%, Apple −6%—AI cloud vs. supply chain differentiation Amazon's nearly 10% post-market gain, driven by strong cloud performance, is a positive AI infrastructure data point the market has been waiting for—direct evidence that hyperscaler AI spending is generating measurable acceleration in cloud revenue. Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue growth exceeded expectations, confirming Microsoft's highest short position level in ten years and the AI infrastructure demand-side argument triggered by SK Hynix's 257% year-on-year growth falling short of expectations. Apple fell 6% due to lowered sales expectations driven by supply shortages—signals of supply chain disruptions: disruptions in Hormuz and broader trade flows are disrupting Apple in ways that affect manufacturing supply chains, undermining its ability to meet demand rather than destroying it. The "Amazon–Apple" divergence during the same after-hours session describes two simultaneous narratives in the current market: AI cloud demand is real and accelerating, but supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical upgrades are creating hardware supply constraints, preventing this demand from fully converting into terminal device sales. Japan background — After the Bank of Japan maintained its policy, the yen weakened, while the dollar and US Treasuries rose The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged as expected, leading to a weakening yen following Thursday's largest single-day gain against the dollar in over two years following Japan's intervention. After the Bank of Japan's reversal in the yen, rising in sync with the dollar but also rising with US Treasuries, and continued declines in oil prices together painted a macro scene for Friday: even the semiconductor rebound in stocks, which was considered "risk-appetite," did not generate the crypto tailwinds that might have been suggested earlier by the "stock-crypto correlation." Oil prices continued to fall—from a high above $100, a brief stagnation of $87 after the shock, and then continued to decline—marking the most constructive macro development in Bitcoin's mid-term allocation. Every sustained drop in oil prices for every dollar lowers near-level CPI inflation expectations that drive the probability of a Fed rate hike. If the drop in oil prices continues rather than being reversed by the U.S. military response triggered by the Iran-Jordan ballistic missile escalation, the probability of a rate hike in September could be significantly lowered from 63%—thus providing the macro "release signal" Bitcoin needs: pushing it above $67,250 and approaching the $68,500 STH cost benchmark.Tether gains $1.5 billion in Q2, but "safety cushion" halves 💰 Tether has just announced a Q2 operating profit of $1.5 billion, mainly from US Treasury bonds and repos. However, the overdue reserves fell from more than $8 billion to $4.11 billion — almost cut in half. Real-world perspective: USDT still accounts for more than 60% of the stablecoin market share, supply increased slightly to about $184.6 billion. They continued to buy more gold (14 tons more, totaling more than 146 tons) and Bitcoin. This is a signal that Tether is optimizing its balance sheet in a high-interest rate environment, but also shows the pressure to revalue assets as gold and BTC prices fluctuate. Other insights: As the market's largest stablecoin "buffer" shrinks, the market is often more sensitive to rumors or liquidity events. Big profits but a reduced buffer is a two-sided story that traders should not ignore.$USDT 📊 On-chain Analyst Perspective: $HYPE Real-Time Market Analysis of Tokens 🔻 Support and resistance levels Resistance above (concentrated selling pressure zone): · 57.0-57.3: The 100-day moving average has shifted from support to resistance · 60-63: Short-term rebound core resistance zone · 64-67.8: The 50-day moving average + downtrend line are pushing down, forming a strong resistance zone · 76.8: Historical ATH, the ultimate mid-game ceiling Below support (bullish defense line): · 54-55: In the current price area, the daily RSI has dropped to 29.42, indicating extreme oversoldness · 52-53: 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level + core demand zone · 50:200 daily EMA+ psychological level; if it falls, the medium-term trend will reverse · 45:0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, intersecting the April-May support level The weekly technical signal strength is 81/100, the MACD histogram is positive (+1.8549), prices are above the macro upward support level (~$29.33), and SuperTrend is bullish. However, short-term price momentum declined, with a 6.1% drop within four candlesticks. The current price has fallen below the key psychological level of $57, with resistance between 57 and 57.3. --- 🐋 Market maker movements on the chain Whale Disturbance: · After 9 months of sleep, the whale awakens: 19 linked wallets transferred about 2.93 million HYPE to Hyperliquid and completed staking, with an average holding price of about $44 and an unrealized profit of about $44.5 million. This is not a sell, but a signal for long-term positioning · Suspected a16z address: Staked 2.785 million HYPE through 20 wallets, worth about $164 million, making it one of the largest holders of HYPE · Counter-trend Whale Holdings: Since June 11, has accumulated about 220,000 HYPE shares at an average cost of $67.51. Currently, the unrealized loss is about $1.945 million, and the position is still being increased · Selini Capital: Transferred 495,473 HYPE (about $26.8 million) to OKX; founder denies shipment allegations, claims they were used for ecosystem functions Institutional Capital Flows: ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive weeks, withdrawing $2.89 million on July 27 and $1.24 million on July 28. On July 17, $7.26 million was outflowed, rising to $8.61 million on the 24th. However, SoSoValue data shows that during the week of May 29, there was an inflow of $57.19 million, peaking at $111.36 million on June 26. --- ✅ Positive factors 1. Driven by real revenue: protocol revenue surpassed $1 billion, open interest reached $11.45 billion, a new annual high, and 24-hour perpetual contract trading volume exceeded $9.29 billion. Generates approximately $2.2 million in daily fees and $1.51 million in protocol revenue 2. Continuous buyback and burn: A total of 47.3 million HYPE have been burned, accounting for 4.73% of the total supply; 97-99% of protocol fees are automatically used to buy back HYPE. Cumulative repurchases have exceeded $1.1 billion 3. Grayscale Valuation Bullish: The Grayscale report forecasts protocol profits of $1 billion by 2027, corresponding to profits of $3.25-3.75 per token, with a forward P/E ratio of only 15-18 times, lower than most fintech companies 4. Arthur Hayes targets $150: BitMEX founder predicts HYPE will reach $150 in August, with the core logic being a "cash flow machine" continuously buying back returns 5. HIP-4 testnet launch: Developers can stake 100 HYPE to deploy prediction markets without gas fees 6. First allocation by a Japanese listed company: Tokyo-listed company Eole bought 1,078 HYPE, planning to increase its holdings to 100 million yen by the end of August --- ❌ Bearish factors (⚠️ extremely high risk) 1. $600 million unlocked: On July 29, 9.92 million HYPE tokens were unlocked, accounting for about 4% of circulating supply. Multicoin applied for unstaking 1.96 million tokens ($120 million), and Selini also unsold, 504,000 tokens. Since unlocking in December 2025, the team has cashed out approximately $165 million 2. Continued net outflows from ETFs: Net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative outflow exceeding $13 million in July 3. In the next 7 days, 6.93 million tokens will be unstaked 4. The price has retreated nearly 30% from its ATH, with a weekly drop of over 8%, making it the hardest drop among the top 10 market capitalizations 5. Extreme market sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index is only 28 (fear), the long-short ratio is 2.0102 (66.8% bulls), indicating excessive bullish sentiment 6. Four major negative factors selling off simultaneously: KYC concerns, SK Hynix perpetual contract crash of 18% triggering $57 million in liquidations, US-Iran tensions suppressing risk appetite, and a double technical top --- 🎯 Comprehensive assessment $HYPE Currently in an extreme divergence state of "extreme fundamentals vs. massive unlocks + capital outflows." On-chain whales are increasing positions and staking against the trend (with an average floating profit of 44.5 million at $44 each, still choosing to stake rather than sell), but institutional unlocking and continued ETF outflows create real selling pressure. The daily RSI of 29.42 is extremely oversold, with a historical 90% chance of a rebound, but if 52-53 is breached, it could accelerate to 50 or even 45. In the short term, watch whether 54-55 can stabilize—if holding, the rebound target is 57-60; If the price drops below 52 on high volume, the bearish target is 50. Only after 57-58 is reclaimed above can the right side opportunity be confirmed. ⚠️ This is not investment advice. $HYPE Currently, the market is in an extreme bullish and bearish contest of "institutions unlocking selling pressure + continuous ETF outflows + whales accumulating against the trend." A DeFi leader with nearly $800 million in annualized revenue, but short-term supply shocks are real. With liquidity declining and volatility intense, participation in any direction requires extreme caution. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks Tether earned $1.5 billion, but I actually focus more on its "safety pad" My viewpoint: USDT's biggest risk now is not profitability, but rather its margin of safety is declining. The reason is simple: Tether's Q2 net operating profit reached $1.5 billion, proving it remains one of the most profitable stablecoin issuers in the crypto market. But another piece of data deserves more attention: USDT circulating supply reached $184.6 billion, but this quarter it grew by only about $446 million, with growth nearly stagnating. Meanwhile, excess reserves dropped sharply from the previous quarter's level to $4.11 billion. Many people only see: "Earning 1.5 billion in one quarter—that's impressive." But what I focus on is: If the market experiences extreme market conditions, how much buffer space does it still have? The greatest value of stablecoins is not making money, but maintaining stability during panic. Additionally, Tether's reserve structure has changed: Gold rose to 146.2 tons, and BTC holdings approached 98,933. This is asset diversification, but also a double-edged sword. Gold and BTC can spread some risk, but they also have price fluctuations themselves. For those holding large amounts of USDT, when judging a stablecoin, I don't just look at its size—I look at three indicators: Whether reserves are transparent; Whether excess reserves are sufficient; Can it withstand stress tests in extreme market conditions? This financial report did not change my judgment of USDT's status. But it reminds us of one thing: In the stablecoin industry, competition isn't about who earns the most, but who can make users trust it even when they're most afraid. In a bull market, look at growth; in a bear market, look at reserves. True stability isn't about proving yourself when things are going your way, but about standing firm when you're at a loss.The Bitcoin-treasury bellwether just posted the quarter I've been watching for. Strategy reported an $8.3B loss for Q2, driven by a non-cash mark-to-market hit on its Bitcoin under fair-value accounting, and, more tellingly, sold roughly 3,588 BTC, its first real selling after years of "never sell." Two weeks ago the company signaled it might. Now it has. Read it without panic and without denial. Most of the loss is an accounting artifact, not a cash event; fair-value rules cut both ways and showed enormous gains on the way up. But the actual selling is the substance: a leveraged holder trimming to manage obligations is exactly the pressure the model faces when price stops rising. Not the end of the treasury-company thesis, its first real stress test in the open. The lesson stands, owning BTC and owning a levered bet on a BTC-holder are different trades. Watching whether the selling continues. Not advice, just analysis. #StrategyBTCLoss #OKXOrbit I'm really going crazy!!! Help me, sisters U.S. stock futures are crazy again. Apple's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, yet the stock price plunged 9% after hours. Isn't this messing with people? Earnings are amazing but the price drops? And then guess what. The White House responded about whether the CLARITY Act will be voted on next week. If this bill passes, it would be a major positive for the crypto market. But now it's still dragging on, every time it's "vote next week" and then postponed again. Google is backing AI data center debt in exchange for a 20% equity stake. The AI bubble is getting bigger; even Google is exchanging equity for cash. What does this mean? The financing cost for AI is rising. So my judgment is: U.S. stock volatility is intensifying, but the crypto market is already used to this kind of volatility. The CLARITY Act is the real catalyst; let's wait for the voting results. In the short term, U.S. stocks will decide the direction, but crypto has its own independent logic. I looked through today's market, and a few points are quite interesting: #苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌 Apple's earnings exceeded expectations but dropped 9%; the market trades on future expectations, not current data. This "good news fully priced in" scenario is common in crypto too. BTC 62883 is a similar case—good news comes out but no one buys. #白宫回应将决定CLARITY法案下周能否投票 The CLARITY Act is a regulatory clarity signal the crypto industry has been waiting for a long time. The White House says the vote is next week, but this "next week" has been said many times. I choose to be cautiously optimistic and will adjust my positions after the results. #谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底，换取两成股权 Google exchanging equity for AI data center debt is a warning sign. When big companies start financing with equity instead of cash, it means cash pressure is high. No matter how hot the AI narrative is, it can't withstand this kind of financial maneuver. $BTC #美股 #CLARITY #AI 📊 On-chain Analyst Perspective: $BEAT Real-Time Market Analysis of Tokens --- 🔻 Support and resistance levels Resistance above (concentrated selling pressure zone): · 4.50-4.71: Early-stage chip trading zone, with many trapped positions waiting to be unlocked · 5.00: Psychological threshold + heavy bearish defense position; breakthrough requires increased volume and coordination · 6.00-7.00: Medium-term strong resistance zone, target range for rebound and recovery Below support (bullish defense line): · 4.04-4.10: If the daily close holds this range, institutional buyers will continue to dominate the structure · 3.60-3.69: Confirmation of pullback after breaking out of the ascending triangle · 3.00-3.20: Key psychological support; if broken, bearish trend will be confirmed · 2.80-2.19: Ultimate demand zone, early stage with dense chip holdings The current price has retraced about 60% from the ATH of $10.98, currently in the middle of the rebound recovery channel. The momentum of the 1-hour MACD has weakened, but the daily chart structure remains dominated by bulls above 4.04-4.10. 4.04 is currently the most important dividing line between bulls and bears—above, the rebound is continuing; below, the second bottom is probed. --- 🐋 Market maker movements on the chain Whale behavior signals: · The Delta value of whale-to-retail investor holdings rose to 0.0123, the highest since June 25, indicating that whale holdings outnumber retail investors · Some early-stage positions cost about $0.58, with unrealized gains exceeding 640%, posing significant realization pressure · Over the past week, whales have withdrawn heavily from exchanges, with market Delta turning positive and signals leaning toward accumulation Chip structure features: · Net inflow to small and medium-sized addresses has shown high-frequency and sustained growth over the past 30 days, with a retention rate of 74.39% · The chip distribution is relatively balanced (about 118,000 holders), with not a few whales monopolizing the market, making the consensus for the rise more resilient Smart Money Strategy: · Short-term funds are positioning long positions around 4.04-4.10, with a target of 7.10 · Margin market is divergence between long and short — Binance's large account long-short ratio is slightly high at 1.58, but the long-short ratio for the number of accounts is only 0.92, indicating a bearish bias among retail investors --- ✅ Positive factors 1. AI + GameFi Dual Narrative: Based on the 600 million user IP of "Audition," integrating AI music generation, virtual idols, and on-chain economy, the concept is sexy and has a real user base 2. Revenue-Driven Deflation: From July 20 to 27, 800,000 BEAT tokens (about $2.9 million) were generated in a single week, with 799,700 tokens burned simultaneously, totaling over 17.83 million coins 3. $BEAT 2.0 Roadmap: Planned in five phases until 2027, aiming to evolve into an on-chain economy where "humans + AI agents participate equally." 4. Whale accumulation signals: large withdrawals + Delta at positive value, smart money is entering on dips 5. Relative Value Depression: Down 60% from the ATH, Bitcoin down 49%, Ethereum down 62%, with over-drop rates close to mainstream assets --- ❌ Bearish factors (⚠️ extremely high risk) 1. August 1 cliff unlock: 21.25 million BEAT tokens (approximately $67.78–$81.66 million) will be unlocked today, accounting for 6.87% of circulating supply—the unlock amount is nearly 1.8 times the daily trading volume ($37.84 million). 2. Burns are far less than the unlock scale: Only 800,000 tokens are burned per week, with unlock volume 26.7 times higher, making the deflationary mechanism completely inadequate to offset supply shocks 3. Confidence Wounds After the ATH Crash: After peaking at $11 on June 12, the market dropped 60% in three days—a typical scenario of 'roadmap pull→ market makers selling off while retail investors → standing guard.' 4. Web2 user conversion is questionable: 60 million registered users represent the Web2 stock during the "Audition" era and may not buy BEAT just to play rhythm games 5. Market sentiment is bearish: CoinGecko survey shows 60% of respondents are bearish; The long-short ratio across the entire network is nearly balanced at 0.99, but the Binance account long-short ratio is only 0.88, indicating a bearish bias for retail investors --- 🎯 Comprehensive assessment $BEAT Currently in an extreme game window of "whale accumulation vs. massive unlocks." On-chain data points to Smart Money positioning long positions between April 4 and April 10, but the unlocked scale on August 1 is nearly 7% of the circulating share, making supply shocks a real hard risk. Although the burn mechanism creates a deflationary narrative, its absolute scale cannot rival unlocking. In the short term, watch the defense at 4.04-4.10—if it holds, the structure is intact, with a target of 4.50-5.00; if it fails, it may accelerate to 3.60 or even 3.00. The 4.50-4.71 range is a strong resistance zone; a breakout will require heavy volume support. ⚠️ This is not investment advice. BEAT is currently in a triple risk stacking state: "high floating whale + massive volume unlock + high beta volatility." Whether the receivers sell after the August 1st unlock will determine the short-term direction. Low liquidity, frequent slippage and false breakouts, and extreme caution is required for participation in any direction. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks "Instant Crash at Morning Open, Friday's Cash Out Is Too Realistic" Early in the morning on August 1st Beijing time, I repeatedly recalled last night's early US stock trading movement, and the more I pondered, the more I understood the intentions of the capital. From my experience staying up all night watching the market, the atmosphere at the opening was especially lively. Relying on expectations of rate cuts in recent days, all three major indices opened slightly higher. The Nasdaq started straight up to a high of 25,460 points, and the storage sector surged collectively. SanDisk and Micron surged 8 to 9 points in early trading, with SK Hynix reaching a high of $162.65. Everyone thought the storage price hike trend would continue. At that time, not only were chip stocks exciting, but Amazon, riding on a better-than-expected earnings report, opened with a gap-up and higher opening. The AI cloud computing sector was in the red, and bullish sentiment surged through Securities Firm China. But the lively atmosphere lasted only half an hour, and the tone changed instantly. On one hand, several Federal Reserve officials have spoken out, still leaning toward tightening monetary policy. People immediately realized that rate cuts will be delayed, and funds that previously bet on easing are now rushing out to cash out; Moreover, as is customary on Friday, funds don't want to hold positions through the weekend, leading to a surge of safe-haven selling positions. The Nasdaq plunged sharply, hitting a low of 25,004 points, swallowing all the opening gains and turning negative, instantly raising a sense of panic in the market. The internal division of the sector is absurd, completely unlike the pattern of rising and falling simultaneously. Giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, which hold AI cloud businesses, remained steady and steady throughout the decline; In contrast, Apple's earnings guidance fell short of expectations, leading to massive capital sell-offs and a downward trend in the consumer electronics sector. The gap in storage is also wide, with Micron and SanDisk pulling back significantly, while SK Hynix, backed by HBM capacity, has dropped the least. Its resistance to declines is obvious. Here, as soon as US stocks fell in early trading, Bitcoin immediately followed suit, unable to operate independently. Nowadays, the logic of capital is fixed; whenever the market starts selling safe-haven assets, crypto assets are always the first positions to be cut off. After this roller coaster in the morning session, I finally understood that there is no comprehensive bull market right now; it will only be a structural fluctuation where funds cluster together in quality assets. Blindly chasing small stocks at high prices can easily get stuck. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks Target confirmed. Before the morning fog clears, my scope has never locked onto the K-line, but rather the true intent hidden behind the quarterly earnings trajectory. Impact point: AMZN. Infrared data shows revenue of 200.6 billion, with a 20% velocity error within the expected range. But the real prey is not the main target—AWS's shot: 42.2 billion equivalent, 37% growth, a trajectory rise I haven't seen since the end of 2021. A 39.4% profit margin, the most beautiful red dot in the scope. A 220 billion powder magazine procurement order? Two hundred twenty billion in secondary ammunition supply. The market did not retreat; instead, it applauded the chambering action. A 9% increase is the wind blowing past the sniper position—the wind direction has changed. The wind direction has changed. The same tactical manual the previous day, Meta's shot was a dud. Today, with the same missed guidance, Amazon's warhead is an armor-piercing incendiary. What changed? The answer is written on the anemometer: the cloud. As long as the cloud layer accelerates and churns, the cover is thick enough, and the 200 billion firepower expenditure is not a war of attrition but a pricing of initiative. The market does not punish the shooter who spends money; it punishes the shooter who cannot see the target. Three bullets, three hit evaluations. MSFT hit the bullseye decisively; Meta raised the gun, aimed, but did not dare to pull the trigger; Amazon pulled the trigger while shouting, "All impact points hit." The same AI theme, different gun-holding postures. AWS is the silencer mounted on Amazon's barrel—not silent, but when it fires, it sentences you to death immediately. In my line of work, the most valuable thing never comes from the shot itself, but from the observation and recalibration after the shot. The market pays for 220 billion in firepower, not just to pay, but to allow you to establish a deeper observation range. When the cloud layer accelerates fast enough, burning money is not burning money; it is calibrating all parabolas in one direction. Alright. Target clear, wind correction complete, the dividing line presses on the throat of cloud computing. This is my decision, and the only decision I need. Chamber. Aim. All resistance and support within the observation window have been fully exposed—this is the prey the hunter has chosen, the wind direction has changed, and the trajectory has changed. Pull the trigger. Impact point, nine rings. #AMZNMissesButRallies 📊 On-chain Analyst Perspective: $MMT Real-Time Market Analysis of Tokens --- 🔻 Support and resistance levels Resistance above (concentrated selling pressure zone): · 0.25-0.26 range: The address with the largest position (11.2%) placed consecutive sell orders within this range, canceling orders three times in total, typical of false pallet trading · Around 0.255: Smart money is placing sell orders here to catch pullbacks · 0.2618:1H Bollinger Band upper band where it is continuously pierced Below support (bullish defense line): · Around 0.238: Dense buying orders, clear capital support intention · 0.23: Main cost support line, breaking below would trigger a waterfall risk · 0.218-0.222: Smart money is truly entering the long range, with limit buy orders hanging below, waiting to be harvested Currently, the market price is in a short-term chip concentration zone, with fierce bullish and bearish competition. Technically, the 1H RSI reached 81.52, indicating overbought, but the 4H MACD histogram is still expanding, indicating that bullish momentum has not completely exhausted. The funding rate of -0.004% is negative, indicating clear short squeeze potential. --- 🐋 On-chain market player movements (key points!) ） Whale Disturbance: · Address 0x7b3a... f9e2 transferred 2.1 million $MMT to the exchange at a cost price of about 0.19, with unrealized profits exceeding 30%. · Another address 0x9f8d... C321 transferred 1.3 million coins to an unknown wallet in three installments within 5 minutes, suspected to be off-market selling Data falsification traces: In the past 24 hours, six addresses made large transfers exceeding 500,000 coins, with exchanges seeing a net outflow of about 3.4 million tokens, but 70% of these came from two newly added 'black hole' addresses—a typical case of inversion creating a false turnover effect. The 24-hour turnover rate reached 45%, with a daily chart closing in a long upper shadow, showing a clear divergence between volume and price. Smart Money Strategy: Place sell orders near 0.255 to catch pullbacks, while using on-chain order scanning robots to monitor whale wallets; the real layout is limit buy orders placed below 0.21. --- ✅ Positive factors 1. Sui ecosystem explosion: MMT is positioned as "Uniswap+Curve+Balancer on Sui," with Sui chain's TVL rapidly climbing, and MMT, as the core governance token, deeply integrated with the ecosystem 2. Top-tier institutional endorsement: Backed by Coinbase Ventures, OKX Ventures, and Binance Labs, with project valuations once reaching $100 million 3. ve(3,3) Lock-up model: Up to four years of lock-up mechanism incentivizes long-term holding, reducing short-term circulation selling pressure 4. Community Bullish Sentiment: Social media discussions are dominated by bullish signals --- ❌ Bearish factors (⚠️ extremely high risk) 1. Official domain has gone offline: momentum.finance, documentation site, and application site are all inaccessible; the main domain redirects to the GoDaddy sale page, and the community generally suspects the project team is missing and the project has been abandoned 2. 80% token locked: total supply of 1 billion tokens, with only about 204 million in circulation; subsequent large-scale unlocking will create sustained selling pressure 3. Upcoming Unlocks: On August 4, 4.93 million MMT (approximately $927,000) will be unlocked 4. Severe Disconnect Between TVL and FDV: TVL is only $4.82 million, FDV is as high as $188.8 million, and the valuation multiple reaches 39 times 5. Platforms like Binance still have trading, but the project's fundamentals have been severely damaged --- 🎯 Comprehensive assessment $MMT Currently in a very high-risk game range. On-chain data shows that major players are creating the illusion of turnover to cover shipments, with whales earning over 30% of the floating profit around 0.19 cost, showing strong profit-taking motivation. The serious risk signal of official domain delisting has not yet been fully priced in by the market. In the short term, watch whether 0.238 can hold steady; breaking below 0.23 could accelerate the decline to 0.22 or even 0.21. The upper 0.25-0.26 zone is a strong resistance zone, with large players clearly placing selling orders. ⚠️ This is not investment advice. Currently, MMT is in a triple risk state: "doubtful project fundamentals + on-chain data manipulation signs + imminent unlocking," requiring extreme caution in any direction. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks $SKHYNIX In a weak rebound phase within a medium-term bearish trend, with fierce bullish and bearish tug-of-war, short-term direction choices are required. 1. Trend Structure (Medium-term Bearish) · Moving averages in bearish alignment: The price (1,086) is well below the MA20 (1,188) and EMA20 (1,204), and the MA5 (1,055) < MA10 (1,133) < MA20 indicates an overall downward channel over the past 20 days. · Key resistance confirmed: The intraday rebound high of 1,210 just touched the MA20 area before pulling back, confirming effective resistance in this area. 2. Short-term Game (Oversold Rebound Hindered) · Weak rebound: Although the price has risen above the MA5 (1,055), it is under pressure at the EMA5 (1,088), currently just slightly below this line, indicating insufficient short-term rebound momentum. · VWMA signal contradiction: VWMA5 (1,041) and VWMA10 (1,078) are both below current prices, indicating that the cost of holding funds entering today is low, with some profit-taking pressure; However, the VWMA20 (1,148) is above, indicating heavy medium-term trapped bearing. 3. Key Support and Resistance (Key Focus on Market Watch) · Immediate defense: Today's low of 1,080 almost coincides with the VWMA10 (1,078), making it the most important short-term long lifeline. If it breaks below with increased volume, it may trigger stop-loss orders. · Rebound ceiling: First resistance at 1,122 (system resistance), strong resistance in the MA10 (1,133) area. · Mid-term bottom: System support at 999 is the final psychological threshold below. 4. Momentum and Sentiment (RSI/Volume) · Signs of RSI divergence: RSI 6 (42) is higher than RSI 12 (39.65), indicating a slowdown in the short term, but none are oversold (below 30), indicating weak bottom-fishing willingness. · Volume drop: 24-hour turnover reached 700 million USDT, closing down 2.67%, typical of high-volume selling or bull-bear inversion. Be cautious of sharp fluctuations before the direction is clear. Comprehensive conclusions and strategic recommendations: The trend is weak, so it's not recommended to buy long. If it stabilizes near 1,080~1,086 and trading volume shrinks, you can try a light position and go long, setting a stop loss below 1,078 with a target of 1,122; If it effectively breaks below 1,078, it is highly likely to inertly test the 999 area. Conservatives should wait for prices to regain above the EMA5 (1,088) and break through 1,122 with increased volume before considering right-side entry. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 "The US Stock Market Turns Down as BTC Follows Tails" On the morning of August 1st Beijing time, after reviewing last night's two sides' face-to-face charts, the pattern of linked interactions was already beyond doubt. In my view, after the Nasdaq surged in early trading yesterday, it suddenly plunged, instantly spreading risk-off sentiment within the market. Funds are selling off high-risk assets in large quantities to hedge safe, with Bitcoin being the first to fall and begin a pullback, operating in sync with the rise and fall of US stocks throughout. Even though the Nasdaq made a deep V reversal in the afternoon and closed up 1 percentage point, cryptocurrencies still couldn't recover all their losses, and the weakness continued until the close. There are many triggers for this situation, layer upon layer continuously suppressing the market. US Treasury yields remain high, risk-free wealth management returns are steadily in sight, and the opportunity cost of holding digital currencies is rising. No one wants to hold BTC for the long term. Strategy firms that had previously been hoarding coins to secure the market have paused low-level accumulation operations, and in Q2 still suffered a massive loss of 8.2 billion yuan, with the largest buyer support in crypto disappearing entirely. Moreover, as Friday approaches the weekend, traders habitually shrink positions to avoid risks caused by various unexpected weekend news, naturally leading to a sharp decline in bullish support. Additionally, the introduction of US stock trading by exchanges has caused capital diversion, causing existing funds that were originally speculating on altcoins and mainstream coins in the crypto world to invest in high-quality US stocks like Microsoft and SK Hynix. Liquidity within the crypto market continues to shrink; whenever there is even the slightest movement in the US market, the margin of decline here is always multiplied by leverage. After all this practice, I know very well that until the Federal Reserve's liquidity policy is fully relaxed, Bitcoin cannot break free from the constraints of U.S. stocks. The current weak oscillation pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. Blindly bottom-fishing will only lead to repeated fluctuations and repeated harvesting. Waiting for signs of stopping the decline is more reliable. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price reversed by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU in U.S. stocks The July rally was truly tough—not only were the investors chasing at the highs buried, but even several professional funds had already collapsed. The genius Leopold is not alone; According to Bloomberg, Mingqiu's affiliated overseas fund, Jupiter Tactical Trading Fund, At the beginning of the year, it managed about $186 million, with a net profit after fees exceeding 90% in the first half. However, in the first three days of July, it lost less than 7.5%, and by July 24, the loss had rapidly expanded to about 43%. Most striking of all, this is still a "market-neutral" quantitative fund. In theory, it shouldn't rely too much on market fluctuations; But when AI, small-cap stocks, and momentum factors all reverse simultaneously, even market neutrality can't save it: bulls collapse quickly, bears suddenly squeeze, and the previously stable correlation and hedging relationship fail. Combined with leverage and redemption pressure, net asset value can be broken within weeks. This round of market reversals is so fast that crowded trading is trampling on each other, leaving even some of the smartest money to withdraw. By July, it had already become a major stress test site for professional funds.#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 Guys, the market is sending a contradictory signal. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Three rate hikes, strong domestic demand, and a 20% monthly rise in oil prices—expectations for rate hikes are gradually entering the pricing phase. On the other hand, the June PCE just turned negative for the first time since 2020, signaling a clear cooling of inflation. In the same time window, two completely opposite data points are on the table. Funds have chosen their own direction—U.S. Treasury yields have been climbing without turning back. The market has shown everyone a fact with real money: compared to PCE's monthly negative turn, capital cares more about oil prices and demand. Oil prices rose 20% in a month, and this is not just a change in numbers, but a real imported inflation expectation. What does it mean that long-term interest rates are heading toward 5.3%? It means the center of funding costs is shifting upward in the coming years. For the crypto market, this headwind won't end the bull market, but it will prolong the period of volatility. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm has changed. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $GRVT Among storage stocks, why did SK Hynix fall the least? Early on August 1st Beijing time, reviewing last night's closing data for the storage sector, the gap between the three major companies is immediately clear. In my view, SK Hynix closed down 3.54% in a single day, with an intraday amplitude surging to 12.85%. It opened at $159.88, surged in early trading to a high of $162.65, and when the Nasdaq plunged, it was driven by the broader market and dumped, hitting a low of $143.51 and barely holding the price level at the close. Compared to Micron's drop of over 5.5% and SanDisk's nearly 5-point decline, its resilience leads the entire sector by a wide margin. Its resilience is mainly due to its hold on HBM high-end memory capacity. Major AI companies rely on this chip to build computing clusters, and solid demand orders have steadily supported the fundamentals. Even though the market collectively avoided and cashed out on Friday, funds were reluctant to massively sell off this core asset. But it ultimately cannot escape the constraints of the US stock market. The Nasdaq plunged deeply in early trading, and it plunged rapidly in sync with the U.S. In the afternoon, the Nasdaq rebounded and closed up 1%, but its downward pace slowed, dropping only 0.79% after hours, with clear signs of some bottom-fishing support. After a long review of the sector's trends, I've concluded that the storage sector is no longer in a cyclical market where both rises and falls occur. Leading companies tied to the rigid demand for AI computing power have limited pullback space but solid bottoms; Mid- and lower-tier stocks focused on ordinary flash memory chips are abandoned first by capital every time the market pulls back. In the short term, during the market oscillation and consolidation phase, SK Hynix will remain the safest choice in the storage sector. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance missed expectations, but its stock price reversed to rise 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record $BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX for U.S. stocks The inflection point in Wall Street's reward and punishment logic for AI has already appeared, but 99% of people haven't noticed yet. Over the past year and a half, Wall Street has had an unspoken routine regarding the huge expenditures of tech giants: the money is definitely going to be spent, but the returns are uncertain, so whenever anyone raises spending, the stock first drops out of respect. This quarter marked the first change, and I believe the turning point for the four major cloud providers is about to arrive. $AMZN surged 15% in a single day. Andy Jassy said on this earnings call what Wall Street has been waiting for: Servers and network equipment can recoup investments in less than three years on average; AI capacity customer contracts mostly last over five years, meaning after the equipment pays for itself, there are still two to three years of pure profit; as for the data centers themselves, they can be used for over thirty years, replacing five or six generations of servers, so the cost of land and buildings is only paid once. $GOOG and $MSFT are similar. This is also why I am giving $ORCL more time and patience, even though it may disappoint again. AI computing power factories have always been a key track in my portfolio, especially cloud providers. As I have shared countless times, the logic of suppressing capital expenditures and suppressing AI semiconductors cannot coexist. This is a serious market trading error.$XRP is currently at a delicate crossroads—prices are trading below all major moving averages, but on-chain data signals seller exhaustion. The bulls and bears have been locked in a narrow range for nearly two weeks. 📊 Key support and resistance levels Currently, XRP continues its consolidation trend from the June decline, with a clear bearish alignment on the technical side—prices below all key 20-, 50-, 100-day, and 200-day EMA levels. Resistance level above: · First Resistance at 1.0935: The 20-day EMA is at this level; standing above here is the first step to improving the short-term outlook · Second Resistance 1.1274: 50-day EMA resistance; reclaiming this line is a necessary condition for a medium-term strengthening · Strong resistance at 1.2113-1.5656: 100-day EMA (1.2113) and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (1.5656); a break above the latter will confirm a broader trend reversal Support below: · First Support 1.056-1.058: The low area tested multiple times recently, currently barely holding · Defensive support at the 1.005:0 Fibonacci support level; a break would invalidate the current consolidation trend · Key support at 0.85-0.88: Analyst Egrag Crypto points out the core support zone, combining the lower boundary of the triangle with the monthly 111 EMA 🐳 On-chain market players and whale movements: sellers are exhausted, buyers are watching and waiting · Exchange inflows hit a historic low: $XRP monthly inflows to Binance have dropped to a historic low of about 3.6 million coins, indicating holders' reluctance to transfer tokens to exchanges for sale. Withdrawal transactions accounted for 55.6%, the highest since February 2021. · Whale activity cools to a multi-month low: while large transactions over $100,000 hit a five-month high, whale transfers over one million coins have both declined simultaneously. This kind of "double decline" signal is very rare—selling pressure has eased, but whales are not actively accumulating. · Exchange reserves dropped to 2.61 billion, but a large number of withdrawals failed to drive the price higher, with analysts noting that these tokens are being moved to cold wallets rather than active trading platforms. · "Insider whale" hits record floating profits: all short positions in BTC/ETH/XRP/SOL with whales are profitable, with cumulative unrealized gains exceeding $7.2 million—the bear forces cannot be ignored. 📰 News Front: Regulatory Positive Signs vs. Macroeconomic Negative Factors Positive factors: · EU regulatory breakthrough: Ripple has obtained full authorization as a crypto asset service provider under the EU's MiCA regulation · July rebound: XRP rose over 3.8% in July, ending a two-month losing streak · Ecosystem continues to grow: wallet numbers rise, tokenization milestones advance, and Forbes ranks XRP among its top four crypto recommendations Negative factors: · August historical curse: August was the flattest month in $XRP's history, with an average return of only 0.43%, and it has closed lower for four consecutive years · Institutional demand is extremely weak: the spot XRP ETF saw only $19.6 million in net inflows over 21 trading days in July, with zero inflows on 11 days · Poor Yearly Performance: XRP has fallen more than 63% from its annual high and over 42% year-to-date · August 1st Custody Unlock: Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP as planned. Although most will be re-locked, psychological supply pressure remains · Tightening macro liquidity: expectations of Fed rate hikes and rising U.S. Treasury yields are suppressing overall risk assets 💎 Summary XRP is caught in a delicate balance between technical pressure and on-chain seller exhaustion. The upper 1.0935 is the first hard challenge; if the lower 1.056 falls, it will open up a gap toward 1.005 or even 0.85-0.88. The core signal of on-chain data is: there are indeed fewer sellers, but no more buyers are buying. The whales are in a "wait and see" mode rather than actively positioning. Whether August can break the four-year losing streak depends on whether institutional demand can return and whether macro risk appetite can improve. Before this, narrow oscillations remained the main theme. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks After reviewing Coinbase's Q2 data, one figure was quite surprising: 88% of its net income no longer comes from BTC spot trading. It predicts market business growth of 106% quarter-on-quarter, with the average USDC held on the platform reaching $20 billion. In the past, when the market cooled, exchanges struggled as well; Now they're starting to cram in stablecoins, derivatives, prediction markets, and subscription services. Ultimately, exchanges know that relying solely on frequent BTC trading isn't stable enough. $COIN The July U.S. stock market finale saw intense volatility amid a tug-of-war between "tech giants' earnings divergence" and "renewed macroinflation concerns." After the Federal Reserve kept interest rate decisions unchanged, international crude oil prices surged above $88 per barrel, keeping long-term US Treasury yields high and putting temporary valuation pressure on high-valuation tech sectors. However, the tech giant's Q2 earnings kicked off a dramatic "hot and ice" drama: Amazon's cloud business boom drove its stock price soar in a single day; Apple suffered a heavy blow due to supply chain bottlenecks in computing power components suppressing guidance. The crypto market as a whole maintained a narrow consolidation amid tight macro liquidity, while DeFi and high-throughput public chain sectors showed strong local structural performance. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 July 28 and 29, Seoul. The Kospi index triggered circuit breakers for two consecutive days, an unprecedented occurrence in the history of the Korean stock market. It fell 10.84% on the first day, and another 5.98% on the second day. SK Hynix, the largest weight, dropped about 23% over two days. Nasdaq plunged, global semiconductor stocks collapsed collectively, and leveraged ETFs collapsed in large numbers. Over two days, the Kospi has pulled back 40% from its June high, and July looks set to be the worst month on record for the index. All the most crowded early transactions are like a card table being overturned by the same hand. This is not negative news for any particular stock, but a global forced deleveraging. The most counterintuitive part is: this time, stocks are the ones that have fallen most like the "crypto world." 01 Ranking of Poor Sellers Let's first look at the spot market. SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit was 60.54 trillion won, a record high, but it was devastated by selling just because it was below LSEG's estimate of 64.22 trillion won, closing at 1.401 million won on July 29. If good news doesn't rise, that's the biggest negative factor. When it was just listed on Nasdaq, its stock price fell below its IPO price of $149. Even worse are the derivatives. The Southern Eastspring 2x long SK Hynix ETF (07709.HK) fell from a peak of HKD 193.65 on June 25 to HKD 32.7 on July 29, a drop of 83%. At its peak, this product exceeded HKD 1.3 trillion in scale and was touted as the world's largest single-equity leveraged ETF. A month has passed, exceeding 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars The crypto community is still digesting the PCE data, but a more direct liquidity variable has already emerged on the yen side. On July 30, the USD/JPY pair dropped 2.6% in a single day. According to data from the Bank of Japan's accounts, the intervention scale was estimated at about 8.45 trillion yen, possibly setting a record for single-day forex market intervention. One day later, the U.S. Treasury notified several banks through the New York Fed to prepare for follow-up actions. According to the Financial Times, the New York Fed has already executed yen-buying operations. It is quite rare for the U.S. to directly enter the market to support another country's currency. The low-interest yen has long been used for carry trades: borrowing yen, converting it into dollars, then allocating to U.S. stocks, bonds, and high-volatility assets. A sudden appreciation of the yen could trigger a reverse contraction of leverage along this funding chain, putting selling pressure on $BTC and $ETH as well. However, a weakening dollar usually supports dollar-denominated assets. In the same report, the dollar's weakness and carry trade liquidation are happening simultaneously, so the crypto market's reaction is not as simple as just the phrase "yen appreciation." Going forward, one linkage to watch is whether BTC can remain stable if the yen continues to rebound. If the coin price resists decline, it indicates that the selling pressure from carry trade withdrawals is being absorbed; if both fall rapidly together, it means liquidity contraction is starting to transmit. The next candlestick that will influence crypto sentiment might first be drawn on USD/JPY. #日元干预战升级，美方准备介入 #谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底, in exchange for 20% equity What does it mean for Google to experience negative free cash flow for the first time? Alphabet's second-quarter revenue was $119.8 billion, with an operating profit of $40.77 billion, and an operating margin of 34%. Google Search and other ad revenue was $63.27 billion, YouTube ad revenue was $11.06 billion, and Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion. Several core businesses are growing, but the company's free cash flow turned negative by $5.9 billion. The problem lies in capital expenditure. Alphabet's operating cash flow for the quarter was $39.1 billion, with capital expenditures of $44.9 billion. Of the spending on technical infrastructure, about 60% goes to servers, and 40% to data centers and network equipment. The company also raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion, clearly stating that depreciation, energy, and data center operating expenses will continue to weigh down profits and free cash flow. This data means Google needs to use the cash generated from search ads to fund a larger computing power system. Search ad revenue grew 17% that quarter, remaining Alphabet's main cash source. Google Cloud grew 82%, operating profit reached $8.8 billion, and the backlog of cloud orders rose to $514 billion, with more than half expected to recognize revenue within 24 months. Nearly 90% of Fortune 100 companies already use Gemini Enterprise, and enterprise demand is not lacking. The challenge is that revenue recognition cannot keep pace with infrastructure payments. Data centers need to acquire land in advance, procure chips, and build power and networks. After customers sign cloud computing contracts, revenue is gradually confirmed based on actual usage or delivery schedule. When building TPU systems for customers, Google also needs to increase inventory in advance. Related agreements have already entered the backlog of cloud business orders, with major revenue not recognized until 2027, and cash outflows have already occurred. Insufficient supply adds another layer of cost. Google plans to lease third-party data center capacity to meet enterprise customer needs first. External computing power can accelerate revenue growth but also reduce cloud business profit margins. Google must bear both the fixed asset investment for its self-built data center and third-party capacity fees, with both costs coexisting for a period of time. Negative free cash flow will also change how Alphabet raises funds. In the second quarter, the company issued $20.3 billion in unsecured senior bonds, with long-term debt reaching $98.2 billion. Management stated during the conference call that capital needs will be jointly covered by operating cash flow, debt, and equity. This adds a new constraint to valuation. Investors need to assess how much cloud revenue, advertising increment, and model call revenue can generate for every dollar invested in data center capital, as well as calculate server depreciation, energy costs, third-party capacity, and financing costs. Google Cloud's 82% growth rate indicates ample demand, and $514 billion in orders indicate customers are willing to sign contracts. A negative free cash flow indicates that this business demands higher capital scale and payment cycles. Google's core issue is already very specific: can the cash generated from search ads support cloud business expansion and achieve a sufficiently high return on capital before depreciation and financing costs fully enter the income statement?Amazon's AWS performance proves one thing: AI capital spending is not just burning money; it is indeed starting to turn into revenue. MRVL surged to $200 during the session. I thought it was finally about to take off, but it closed back down to 187—the familiar feeling returned...... When prices rise, they make me daydream; when they fall, they help me face reality. However, the logic hasn't broken for now—cloud vendors are still expanding, with demand for custom chips, switching chips, and optical interconnects. The biggest issue now isn't whether it has a future, but that this valuation cannot tolerate any performance mistakes. Next week, I'll continue to look at PLTR, AMD earnings, and employment data—it feels like another sleepless week.

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