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Self-custody has lost a total of 1.57 million Bitcoins, while exchanges have lost 1.51 million coins—the two numbers are almost directly connected.
This is a set of custodial security data released by Willy Woo. After reading it, Zhao Changpeng immediately added: From a statistical perspective, storing cryptocurrency on exchanges is safer than self-custody.
This is a delicate moment to say this week. In the same week, an attack broke out on the Coldcard wallet, confirming the theft of 1,596 BTC and losses exceeding $100 million. Hardware wallets, holding your own private keys, cold storage—these security facts that are repeatedly emphasized have just been hit by reality at this critical moment.
However, Zhao Changpeng himself added a few sentences, and I think those lines are more worth pondering than the conclusion itself.
He said hacker data on exchanges is easier to collect because whenever something happens, it's headline news and known worldwide. On the self-care side, most of these situations go unreported and no longer catch the data. In other words, the 1.57 million figure is likely a seriously underestimated lower limit, and the 1.51 million figure is almost completely exposed to the sun.
He also mentioned that a large portion of the 1.51 million yuan on exchanges was dragged down by platforms that had already gone bankrupt. The historical burden of Mentougou still hangs on the entire industry's accounts today. Platforms like Binance, which are still alive, have always paid full compensation after being hacked.
So what exactly does this set of data indicate?
My own understanding is that it may not mean one method is safer, but rather that the two risks look completely different.
Exchange risk is centralized, with counterparties, and beyond your control. When the platform has problems, accounts are frozen, or insiders are doing evil, there's nothing you can do but follow the news. But it also has the potential to provide a safety net: if something happens, someone will compensate, customer service will be involved, and legal routes can be taken.
The risks of self-custody are dispersed, operational, and entirely borne by you alone. If you lose a mnemonic phrase and no one can help you get it back, sign a wrong transaction without a redo button, or scam sites tricking you into authorizing once, it's all clean. It gives you absolute control, but the price is absolute responsibility.
Zhao Changpeng's last sentence was actually quite restrained: it's not that one approach is better; different approaches have different risk characteristics and suit different groups. A balanced approach may be the safest approach.
The word 'balance' sounds light to say, but when it comes to specific people, it's hard to unravel. How much do you want to keep on the exchange for convenient movement, and how much can be stored in a cold wallet for long-term use? Is there a standard answer to this ratio?
I want to ask you a few questions.
After this Coldcard, have you really checked your mnemonic backup again? You just thought about going back and then never did.
If you want to split your coins into two parts—one on an exchange and one self-custody—how would you divide them? Even 50-50, or 91.
There's an even more heartbreaking one. Suppose something unexpected happens to you tomorrow. Will your family be able to claim the portion of assets you hold in self-custody?
Let's chat in the comments—I'm curious how you handle it.BICO/USDT Price Prediction 🚀
Biconomy ($BICO) is exploding with massive momentum, surging to $BICO 0.02055 (+22.10%) after touching a 24h high of $BICO 0.02170! 📈🔥
Bullish Target: If bulls clear resistance at $0.02170, look for a continuation push toward $0.02450 - $0.02700! 🐂💥
Key Support: Strong short-term support is now trailing at $0.01538 (MA5) down to $0.01379 (MA10). 🛡️
Huge volume surge driving a major breakout off local lows—watch for consolidation above $0.020 to fuel the next leg up! 📈💎Next week may not be a week to decide direction, but it could very well be a week to determine expectations.
The market is about to experience several key events.
SpaceX's first financial report after going public.
The first large-scale lock-up of restricted shares after listing.
Leading AI companies have been releasing their latest earnings.
There is also U.S. nonfarm payroll data.
Many people treat these as independent news stories.
In the eyes of investors, these events actually answer the same question—are risk assets still worth continuing to allocation?
If tech giants' earnings continue to exceed expectations, it means corporate earnings can still support current valuations, and funds will be more willing to allocate to growth assets.
If nonfarm payroll data is too strong, the market may renew concerns about inflationary pressures and the continued tightness of monetary policy, which could cool interest rate cut expectations again.
If employment data weakens significantly, it may trigger market concerns about an economic slowdown, which will also affect risk appetite.
As for the unlocking of restricted shares, what really needs to be watched is not the unlocking scale, but whether the funds choose to cash out and exit after the lock-up, or continue to hold for the long term.
These seemingly unrelated events ultimately reflect the same answer—has capital confidence in the future changed?
The capital market has never been driven by news driving prices, but by expectations driving capital, and capital driving prices.
So, rather than guessing about the rise and fall every day, it's better to observe what new consensus the market has formed after the week ends.
Is it corporate earnings that continue to test the logic of growth?
Or will the macro environment once again dominate market sentiment?
Or is incremental capital starting to flow in a new direction?
These issues deserve much more attention than just one or two candlesticks.
What truly changes the market is never a single piece of news, but multiple events working together to alter market expectations. When funds begin to form consensus expectations again, a new wave of trends often begins. $BTC #SPCX's first earnings report will be released, with $100 billion unlock imminent. $$SPCX 🚨 Is the market overlooking this Bitcoin signal?
Back in 2022, Strategy sold 704 BTC. At the time, many dismissed it as insignificant.
In the months that followed, Bitcoin went on to decline sharply. That doesn't mean the sale caused the move—but it became part of a much bigger story.
Now, Strategy has disclosed another sale—this time 1,638 BTC, more than double the amount sold in 2022.
The key point isn't the size of the transaction.
It's that the company has demonstrated it's willing to sell Bitcoin when circumstances require it.
That matters because it changes how investors think about downside risk.
If market conditions become more challenging, future sales may no longer be viewed as unthinkable.
One potential scenario looks like this:
📉 BTC weakens → 📉 Strategy's equity comes under pressure → 💰 Raising capital becomes more difficult → 🪙 Selling Bitcoin becomes a more realistic option.
This isn't a prediction, and it doesn't mean history will repeat itself. But it's a dynamic worth watching as part of the broader market picture.
Do you think investors are underestimating this risk, or is the market already pricing it in?
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise 🚨 Next week's earnings could set the tone for both AI and crypto markets—but one report may carry outsized significance.
📅 Companies to watch: 📊 Palantir ⚡ AMD 🚀 SpaceX 🪙 Circle
Palantir, AMD, and SpaceX are expected to provide fresh insight into AI demand, enterprise spending, and infrastructure investment. With much of the AI optimism already reflected in valuations, it may take meaningful surprises to drive the next major move.
Circle, however, could tell a different story.
Recent crypto earnings have painted a mixed picture, with signs of softer trading activity across parts of the industry. That raises an important question:
Is institutional capital leaving crypto—or simply waiting on the sidelines?
Circle's earnings, particularly updates on USDC circulation, reserve balances, and adoption, could offer one of the clearest signals yet.
🟢 If USDC supply continues to expand: it may indicate institutions are still deploying capital through regulated stablecoin infrastructure.
🔴 If USDC supply contracts: it could suggest liquidity is leaving the crypto ecosystem rather than merely rotating between assets.
For crypto investors, stablecoin data is often one of the best real-time indicators of market liquidity and institutional participation.
Bottom line: AI earnings will help gauge the strength of the technology sector, while Circle's results may reveal where crypto capital is headed next.
Which report do you think will have the biggest impact on market sentiment?
$BTC $ETH $BEAT
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise Massive smart money distribution in progress as a tagged whale executes a complete exit on $LDO !
Three distinct transactions routed 1.438M $LDO out through 0x MainnetSettler in a single hour, unwinding a position built just two weeks ago across 1inch, Kyber, and 0x.
The wallet has officially purged $LDO from its top portfolio allocations, signaling a decisive shift in sentiment. Why is monitoring on-chain liquidity flows your ultimate edge in these markets?
Because tracking large-scale DEX exits gives you real-time insight into whale behavior before the chart reacts.
Are you managing your risk accordingly?$BEAT Trade Review: The Cost of Entering Too Early
A few days ago, I shorted $BEAT , entering at 4.1172 and closing at 3.0391 for a gain of more than 100U.
The mistake happened immediately afterward.
Instead of taking time to reassess, I flipped long at 3.1334. Today, price is trading around 2.87.
The position is now sitting at roughly -82% unrealized, with a floating loss of about 25U on 28U of margin. That's a meaningful loss.
Looking back at the 15-minute chart, the error is clear.
After falling from 3.55, the market offered almost no convincing sign of a reversal. Buying at 3.13 was an attempt to catch a falling knife—hoping momentum would suddenly reverse without any confirmation.
The issue wasn't the chart.
It was my mindset.
I had just closed a profitable short and immediately felt the urge to capture the rebound. Instead of waiting for the market to prove a bottom, I let the emotions from the previous winning trade influence my next decision.
My plan:
No averaging down.
No emotional holding.
2.70 is my line in the sand. A decisive break with strong volume, and I'll exit.
If price recovers toward 3.00, I'll also look to reduce or close the position.
No turning this into a long-term hope trade.
Watching other setups:
$PUMPcontinues to look constructive. The daily chart is breaking out on rising volume and approaching resistance near 0.0022. That said, meme coins can reverse just as quickly as they rally, so I'm staying patient rather than chasing momentum.
$UB is also improving, with a clean V-shaped recovery and the MACD moving above the zero line. 0.16 remains the key support level. I'll only consider an entry after a healthy pullback that successfully holds above it.
Final takeaway
This wasn't a failure of technical analysis.
It was a failure of patience.
I closed one successful trade, became eager for the next opportunity, and entered before the market confirmed a reversal.
The 25U loss hurts, but I see it as tuition—a reminder that timing and discipline matter just as much as finding the right direction.
#BigTechEarningsWatch #BigTechEarningsWatch $ETH The reduction in staking yields is certainly positive for the token price, but facing the large amount of staking funds fleeing, it will definitely put short-term selling pressure. Staked token $LDO $ETHFI Declined first as a sign of respect. Meanwhile, AAVE and ENA, which rely on ETH staking rates, have not fallen yet. I believe there will be a catch-up drop later; it's just a matter of time. After all, lending yields and arbitrage staking trades essentially still require ETH staking yields to generate returns. Why hasn't ETH fallen yet? Because large funds need to withdraw and unstake their collateralization. The funding rate is no longer profitable, and ETH's biggest black swan is likely to arrive soon. BMNR has become a burial object again; after deceiving people for so long, it even tricks itself into Tomlee. Stick to my previous view: the 1350 ether dessert zone. Previously, you could consider taking partial profits on Ethereum at 1600, then buy back later. I haven't had the chance to open a low-leverage long order yet, so stay patient. Not every fluctuation you have to take is the same.🟢 AI Morning Market Update: Infrastructure & Semiconductors Lead the Pre-Market Rally
AI infrastructure is back in focus before the opening bell.
Pre-market snapshot: • $QQQ : +0.9% to 706 • $SOXX: +3.9% to 528
While $PLTR continues to build on yesterday's earnings-driven momentum, up 14.5% pre-market at 144, the broader rotation is clearly shifting back toward AI infrastructure and semiconductors:
• $MRVL : +8.9% • $VRT: +5.3% • $SNDK: +5.3% • $AMD: +5.2% • $MU: +4.9% • $ARM: +4.8%
The move is being supported by several key developments:
• Reuters: The Trump administration is reportedly considering restrictions on new Chinese optical transceiver imports for U.S. data centers. • The Wall Street Journal: Banks are discussing a $15B data-center financing package for Anthropic backed by Google. • Financial Times: Google is said to be assembling an approximately $200B financing program for Anthropic, with more than $150B earmarked for TPUs and related AI infrastructure.
The market isn't simply extending yesterday's software rally—it's rotating back into the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem. If the reported trade restrictions move forward, non-Chinese optics and networking suppliers could benefit from stronger pricing power and market share. Meanwhile, continued investment in AI infrastructure reinforces demand for networking, memory, power, and cooling technologies.
The key level to watch after the open: if $SOXX gives back its gains while software regains leadership, today's move may prove to be little more than a pre-market squeeze. If semiconductor strength holds, it would reinforce the view that AI infrastructure remains the market's leadership theme.
Sources: Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and company filings.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise Seeing the 'take off' sprint on $SPCX before its earnings report is truly both amusing and frustrating. Do you only understand candlestick colors but not the hedging calendar?
Currently, 95% of SPCX's shares are still held by insiders and employees, with only a meager 4-5% of circulating shares. Right now, the rally is purely low-circulation + sentiment speculation, and has nothing to do with fundamentals. The Q2 earnings window is just a few days away, and the first batch of 20% of locked shares (about 920 million shares) is about to be unlocked. If the stock price stays above 175.50, there will be an additional 10% reward unlocked. The current price is 121, and the IPO price hasn't even returned to 135. Although the unlock condition can't trigger that extra 10%, the 20% selling pressure is real.
Even funnier, this was just the appetizer. From August to October, 7% of the shares will be released every two weeks, and after the Q3 earnings report, about 1.3 billion shares (28%) will be unlocked. The 180-day lock will fully expire on December 8. By June next year, Musk's 6.4 billion shares—nearly half of the company's shares—will also enter the market. The pressure on the supply side is continuous and enormous, while on the demand side, what is left besides "faith"?
The 30-day decline was -24.69%, and the 90-day drop was nearly -25%. The trend is now clear. This push before the earnings report is just giving bears a better entry point. I kept my short position, aiming for double digits. Once this batch of unlocks is released, those chasing highs will understand what "flying" means—it's just a free-fall downward fall.30-Year Treasury Yield at 5.27%: Peak or Just the Beginning?
It may sound extreme, but the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27%, its highest level in nearly two decades, while the Federal Reserve remains largely on the sidelines.
Not long ago, investors closely tracked every Fed signal for clues about the direction of markets. Today, the long end of the Treasury market appears to be finding its own equilibrium. Yields continue to rise, bond prices continue to fall, and long-duration bondholders have endured significant losses while facing the constant prospect of additional government debt issuance.
Many investors see these levels and immediately call for a generational buying opportunity. I'm not convinced.
The era of ultra-low yields was supported by three powerful forces: globalization, subdued inflation, and strong demand for U.S. debt. Today, all three are far less certain. With U.S. debt approaching $40 trillion, persistent fiscal deficits, and a growing supply of Treasuries, the market is being asked to absorb more debt without the same level of support from foreign buyers or the Federal Reserve.
From a crypto investor's perspective, the implications are straightforward. When the so-called risk-free rate offers more than 5%, capital naturally becomes more selective. Investors have less incentive to chase highly volatile assets when attractive yields are available elsewhere.
That dynamic helps explain why risk assets, including Bitcoin, often struggle to sustain major breakouts in a rising-yield environment. As long as long-term Treasury yields remain elevated or continue moving higher, the path for speculative assets is likely to be more challenging, with consolidation rather than a broad-based surge.
My view: it's still premature to declare a peak in long-term yields. Many investors see 5.3% and assume the move is over. I see a market still adjusting to a very different economic reality than the one that defined the last decade.
Just my perspective, not financial advice.
$BTC #DailyOrbit #BigTechEarningsWatch #FedSplitGoesPublic Guys, SpaceX might be heading into a real rally in the coming days.
#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
The biggest market focus right now isn't what Musk issued, but that the bears have already pushed too hard. Data shows that the current short selling scale has reached $24.6 billion, with about 219 million short positions, accounting for nearly 34% of the circulating shares.
With such a high short ratio, if the direction is wrong, a chain of purchases can easily form.
There are two key events in the next two days.
#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
📌 The post-market release of the financial report on August 4 will determine how the market views the company's growth potential.
📌 On August 6, the stock market will be unlocked, allowing early investors and internal shareholders to start trading, putting the market to the test of leverage.
Many people believe that lifting the lock-up will definitely cause sell-offs, but the market often tends to move in the opposite direction. If the earnings report is impressive enough and the new selling pressure is successfully absorbed by funds, those who short at high levels may be forced to buy back the stock, pushing prices to keep rising.
The most classic scene in the trading market is when everyone is bearish, yet stock prices keep climbing.
Whether this round will be unlocked, cashing out negative news, or the bears collectively admitting defeat, will depend on what the market chooses in the coming days. 🚨 The market appears to be strengthening...... But don't mistake "optimism" for "trend confirmation."
Confidence is gradually returning, news headlines are turning positive, and trader sentiment is starting to heat up again. But real major market moves often happen after the market proves itself with a substantial breakthrough—not before.
📊 Market observations during trading
Overnight, global markets as a whole continue the risk appetite tone:
🇺🇸 U.S. stocks closed higher, driven by the continued strength of major tech stocks;
🌏 The Asia-Pacific market followed suit, with Korean stocks leading the gains.
However, several core risks remain unresolved:
🇯🇵 Yen exchange rate fluctuations continue to ferment;
⚡ The energy market is unstable;
📑 Later this week, key U.S. employment data will be released, which could reverse the current optimism at any moment.
Market sentiment is indeed improving—but there is still a tough battle ahead.
🟠 BTC (Bitcoin)
BTC is currently testing the $64,000 resistance zone in real time.
📈 If it can break through cleanly and firmly hold this position, it could ignite a new round of upward momentum and improve overall risk appetite in the altcoin market.
📉 Conversely, if rejected, it is highly likely to enter another accumulation phase, with $63,000 and $62,200 becoming key support levels to watch.
🔵 ETH (Ethereum)
ETH was noticeably weaker than BTC in this rebound, remaining stagnant.
If the price can consistently hold above $1,650, it would be a positive signal boosting the broader altcoin market; Until then, capital is expected to remain highly selective, with funds leaning toward areas with greater certainty.
🟡 Key Altcoin levels worth watching
• SOL needs to recover $80
• BNB needs to break above $600
• DOGE needs to break above $0.071
👀 Next, focus on where the funds are flowing:
🐸 Meme sector: PEPE, WIF, BONK
🏦 DeFi sector: LINK, AAVE, UNI
🤖 AI track: WLD, TAO, KAITO
⚠️ Reminder: Emotional warmth doesn't mean you can hit hard and leverage it.
The first bullish candle is not a confirmation signal—it is often just bait. True trading wisdom is to wait for a key resistance level to be effectively broken and held before acting decisively.
Patience remains the most undervalued position in the market.
$BTC $ETH #DailyOrbitIf US tech stocks continue to rally with increased volume, then the lukewarm water for risk assets may be even hotter than many think. Do you smell that familiar sweetness? QQQ rose +1.76% in a single day, with three stocks among NVDA, TSLA, and MSFT rising over 2%. This is not an ordinary rebound; it is capital repricing the story of "the strong get stronger." The market's current actions are very honest: money doesn't hesitate, pushing straight into the most crowded tracks. When I watch the market, what I care about most is not the rise itself, but the psychological changes behind the rhythm. In recent weeks, everyone has been repeatedly probing, fearing recession, valuations, and the Fed's change of side. But today, this bullish candlestick seems to have gently overshadowed all those hesitations. When the leaders collectively hit new highs, funds instinctively believe that "not participating is the risk." Once this sentiment spreads, it can easily lead to a situation where the high level is dulled and the leader's premium continues to widen. However, I'm not here to call for orders. On the contrary, I'm more wary of two signals: - Can QQQ hold above the nearly 5-day high, rather than quickly pulling back after surging? - Will the trading volumes of NVDA, TSLA, and MSFT really expand in sync, or are they just pulling up with shrinking volume? If the price hits a new high but the volume can't keep up, that's a classic case of 'inflated fat.' In the short term, strong stocks are most likely to experience high-level divergence after stagnant rally on high volume, and those who chase at that time may be the last to catch the last blow. My understanding is: the market is not trading performance now, but "trend inertia." Everyone wanted to catch the safest train, so the car sped up faster and faster, but...Rebound and then hype? Don't worry, money is still drilling into AI, but the foundation of risk assets hasn't been firmly established. Scroll down to see the numbers.
$BTC 63,933 +1.86% $ETH 1,871 +1.43%
$QQQ +1.76% $SPY +1.42% $IBIT +1.46%
$DXY -0.11% $GLD +0.05%
Crude oil and Hormuz continue to disrupt inflation expectations, US Treasury yields and Fed expectations continue to weigh on valuations, and the exchange rate line is unstable. $DXY is not a backdrop and could move the market at any time. But money doesn't care about all that, pushing into AI semiconductors, with $MU up +11% and $SNDK +16.4% surging sharply. $QQQ carrying the Nasdaq forward, institutions haven't loosened their grip on hard tech at all.
Looking closely, it's all a bit fishy. $ETH Left behind by $BTC, fake funds only recognize big pies, and the weakness of Ethereum shows the wind hasn't truly warmed up. $IBIT Gains have lagged behind spot $BTC, ETF buying has been weak, and this rebound in spot markets hasn't penetrated deep enough. $DXY Breathed a sigh of -0.11%, giving risk assets a breathing space; But $GLD +0.05% is still rising, and the safe-haven funds haven't been fully withdrawn, so the market remains anxious.
Whether the US stock market can hold out tonight will be the real touchstone. Whoever shows weakness first will set the pace for the next few days. Don't rush to hold heavy positions; look carefully before making a move.
#ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have reversed先试着写一段简单的交易。
在ETH大幅拉升的时候，比如图1这段ETH5月1号到5月10号，从2900拉升到4100。但比特币纹丝不动，大家都在期待着BTC在蓄力补涨的时候，就要小心了。
还有几个因素，比特币已经从4月14号CB上市的64000高点回落过一波，后续的反弹乏力，资金更多的切换到ETH上，当时还有动物园们，疯狂起飞，全魔乱舞阶段。这时候是BTC的最佳开空时机。
也和前几天我在66000平掉BTC的多单是一个道理，市场上ETH强于BTC的时候，是个危险信号。
再说回平仓时机，当时我是在4万开的对冲，没想到当天就出现了5.19时刻，又暴跌了30%，又在35500-3W2陆续加了多单，当比特币OK季度价格跌到28800的时候，爆仓价已经掉到了25000。AI, space, stablecoins—all three cards are flipped up at once.
The most lively market this week wasn't ISM hitting a four-year high, nor the abnormal drop in US Treasury yields. The real highlight is the financial reports of AMD, SpaceX, and Circle that are almost immediately released.
These three seemingly unrelated fields are actually intertwined.
On the AI side, AMD is the direct beneficiary and stress tester.
Demand for data centers and AI accelerator cards is still surging, and the market has raised expectations very high. AMD's earnings report this time is not just about revenue and profit, but also about whether it can truly capture Nvidia's market share and whether its next-generation products can scale up on time. The biggest risk in AI narratives now isn't the loss of demand, but supply falling behind, intensified competition, and squeezed gross margins. If the numbers fall short of expectations, the entire AI hardware chain will shake.
On the space side, SpaceX submitted its report card for the first time as a publicly listed company.
Starlink is already a genuine cash cow, but the real cash burners are AI and Starship. The market is currently most concerned not about the number of launches, but whether Starlink can sustainably feed its AI computing power and Starship R&D. SpaceX ties space and AI together to tell stories: computing power in orbit, low-latency networks, and the future constellation economy. It sounds sexy, but for the first time releasing an earnings report, the numbers have to match the story. If losses are too high and guidance too soft, valuations will immediately be repriced.
On the stablecoin side, Circle is the underlying pipeline of the crypto world.
USDC circulating supply, on-chain trading volume, and reserve yields—these are the true metrics for measuring crypto market activity. Stablecoins are not just "digital dollars"; they have become the settlement layer for exchanges, DeFi, and cross-border payments. Circle's numbers are strong, indicating real on-chain demand is still there; A negative number indicates that funds are either leaving or shifting toward other stablecoins. What the crypto market lacks most right now isn't narrative, but real liquidity that can be continuously accumulated. Circle's financial report answers this question.
These three companies are actually talking about the same thing:
AI requires massive computing power and electricity; space provides new computing power deployment space and networks; stablecoins offer on-chain settlement and capital efficiency.
One is hardware and algorithms, one is physical infrastructure, and the other is financial pipelines. With all three submitting their papers simultaneously, the market will see for the first time clearly: is this "AI + space + encryption" cross-narrative really running or just telling a story?
If the numbers hold up, risk appetite can continue to surge.
If you can't hold back, the optimism brought by the easing of oil prices will quickly fade.
AI, space, and stablecoins are no longer just three separate tracks. This week's earnings report is the first public stress test for this new triangle. #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale Should the price fluctuate back and forth, or should I keep holding on, or should I mostly focus on swing trading due to my inner tolerance?
Since the recent geopolitical upgrade in early July, the logic and trend of oil price fluctuations have all been correct. #WTI
I also agree with the article's viewpoint. Let's first see how this break below 75 will happen. If it follows the trend and breaks below 72 or even lower, it will be time to take profits. If you're still pulling at 75, keep picking up.
But personally, although $CL $BZ are currently profitable on paper, I still feel it was a bit of a failure
Previously, my CL's last opening price was 80.2, and BZ's opening price was 88.3
Actually, the first time it broke 78, the account was already quite profitable, but I still wanted to wait for a lower price, so I didn't leave, worried that after holding for so long, I wouldn't get a big profit. I wondered if I would just go down directly. But they still underestimated the level of back-and-forth between the US and Iran
Immediately after, news waves kept circulating, and the price rebounded above 88. At that time, profits pulled back, and I started to regret it a little
Then the second time it broke 79 was on number 3. There was another swing opportunity, but still didn't sell. Today it broke above 80, and I lost again.
Today, news has completely eased, with expectations for strait navigation and prices breaking below 76.
This is the first time since July that the book has maximized profits (back then, around 93, it was considered the biggest loss, but fortunately, it was certain it would continue). Although I did get to eat it, I still felt a bit of a pity
This actually makes us reflect on a question: price trends aren't like climbing stairs—they're falling, falling, rebounding, then falling again, rising again, falling again, then falling again...
This keeps repeating. Think about other big specs, US stocks, and the US market—they've all shown similar trends
However, this kind of swing is indeed very exhausting, and you have to worry about missing out, so you need to check the market from time to time. Still holding it all the time for peace of mind, right?
I also want to eat more and trade more swing trading, but sometimes people's trading mindset is very complicated
Right now, we're just hindsight talk, but if you think about it, it's not really hindsight. It's a lot of trading experience you've accumulated, so you'll know:
"Dog farms won't just keep rising without looking back, nor will they keep falling without a rebound."
This truly requires trading skills that combine cognition, strong mentality, operation, and patience
It's unbearable, really unbearable
DYORThe July ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 55.6, far exceeding expectations and hitting a new high since May 2022. New orders, production, and employment all ignited across the board. By old logic, the bond market should have been smashed, and yields should have surged.
So what happened? The 10-year US Treasury yield actually dropped by five to six basis points that day, closing at 4.68%.
Stop pretending, the real boss is oil prices.
Over the weekend, Trump suddenly softened his stance, delaying action against Iran, causing Brent crude to plunge over 4% in one day. Inflation expectations instantly eased, and the bond market’s sensitivity to "oil prices dropping" far outweighs "manufacturing accelerating." No matter how strong the data is, it can’t compete with oil prices suddenly easing.
Manufacturing is indeed warming up, but don’t celebrate too soon. The real drivers are AI infrastructure, defense orders, and early stockpiling; traditional sectors are still barely alive. The price index fell from 73 to 71.1, which looks like a drop but is still alarmingly high. Supply chains remain bottlenecked, and cost pressures have not eased at all.
Actual impact:
Both stocks and bonds are celebrating wildly. All three major US stock indices closed higher, the Dow hit a new closing high, and the Nasdaq rose over 2%. Once oil prices fell, risk appetite immediately returned.
Rate hike expectations barely moved. Even with stronger manufacturing, it was offset by oil prices, so September rate hike pricing basically stayed flat.
Long-term yields fell, temporarily benefiting growth stocks and real estate, easing financing cost expectations.
But don’t be fooled by this excitement.
Economic resilience is real, but trading is completely hijacked by oil prices. Once oil prices rebound, or if employment and inflation get tougher later, the bond market can turn hostile at any time, and the script of stocks and bonds rising together will instantly fall apart.
Right now, the market isn’t really watching the ISM; it’s watching whether oil prices will drop again tonight. When oil prices ease, bonds ease; when oil prices rise, bonds get smashed. This wave looks like a return of risk appetite but is actually as fragile as thin ice. #ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 #ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌
The July ISM Manufacturing Index reached 55.6, 1.6 points higher than expected, marking the highest level since May 2022. New orders, production, and employment all strengthened across the board, which theoretically should have pressured the bond market and pushed yields higher.
However, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by five to six basis points that day, closing near 4.68%.
The reason is simple: oil prices crashed first.
Over the weekend, Trump suddenly paused action against Iran, causing Brent crude to drop more than 4% in one day. Inflation expectations eased accordingly, and the bond market’s reaction to "oil prices falling" was much quicker than to "manufacturing acceleration."
Manufacturing is indeed recovering, but mainly supported by AI infrastructure, defense orders, and early stockpiling; traditional sectors remain weak. Although the price index fell from 73 to 71.1, it is still very high. Supply chain lead times continue to lengthen, and cost pressures have not disappeared.
The data looks good but contains some inflation.
What the market is really watching now is not the ISM, but whether oil prices can hold steady. When oil prices ease, bonds ease with them; if oil prices rise again, bonds can turn hostile at any time.
This wave of simultaneous stock and bond gains looks lively but is actually quite fragile. The crosshair held the target for the seventh second, and the wind direction changed. The entire U.S. market was fixated on the $57.2 million paper gap, roaring, but my scope bypassed the smoke and locked onto the deeper metal pile in the balance sheet—8,002 bitcoins, 981 more rounds of live ammo than the last battle.
American Bitcoin, the Trump family’s day-and-night roaring mining machine, delivered its third consecutive quarterly loss report in Q2: a net loss of $57.2 million, of which $71.2 million was a fair value impairment of crypto assets. A paper scratch, not a leaking magazine. Revenue was about $67 million, production hit a record 932 BTC, while reserves net increased by 981 coins—an increase roughly equal to output. They never opened a single magazine cover, pressing every bullet fired back into the vault intact. The paper floating loss is a camouflage net; the real arsenal expanded by 14% beneath the surface.
Those Wall Street observers accustomed to measuring angles with profit and loss statements only shout “short” at the red circles. The true ace never looks at the printed pattern on the enemy’s target but only at the direction of the barrel and the location of the ammo pile. This mining farm uses floating losses as bait to buy ambush time without selling a single bullet. Classic long-term stealth.
In the same week, Trump media cut the BTC treasury down to just pledged margin. One is loading bullets into the magazine, the other is dismantling the gun and leaving the field. The same chessboard, two sets of orders, opposite directions.
Wind direction southeast, wind speed 2.8 meters, adjusted by a quarter density point. The spot marked $XUSAR’s large linkage is just the muffled sound transmitted back to the ground after bullets tear through the air at supersonic speed.
In my eyes, there are no red numbers jumping on the reports. I see only one thing: 8,002 steel-core bullets, all loaded, safety off.AMD is handing over its papers tonight, SpaceX is also submitting papers tonight, and Circle is the grand finale tomorrow—I stared at the earnings dates of these three companies and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: some are going to claim scholarships, some are submitting self-criticism letters, and some may be dropping out.
📊 Let's look at the schedule first: three financial reports, three different destinies
August 4 After-market Close: AMD + SpaceX compete head-to-head
AMD (AMD.O) expects revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year; Adjusted earnings per share were $1.62, a year-over-year surge of 237%. The options market bets on stock price fluctuations of 10%-12.4% after betting on earnings.
SpaceX (SPCX.O) expects revenue of $6.93 billion, with an adjusted loss of $0.26 per share. The options market bets on a 15% fluctuation, meaning the $225 billion market cap could instantly evaporate or expand.
Pre-market on August 5: Circle makes the grand finale
Circle (CRCL.N) expects revenue of $717–735 million, up 11% year-over-year; Earnings per share ranged from $0.16 to $0.19, compared to a loss of $0.43 in the same period last year. USDC circulating supply was $73.7 billion, down 4.6% quarter-on-quarter.
🔍 AMD: Top students submit their papers, but the proctor changes
If AMD showed this report card, it would have risen 20% three months ago. But the problem is—AI concept stocks have collectively collapsed, and AMD itself has pulled back nearly 19% from its June high.
The data center business is expected to reach $6.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101%. Server chips 4 billion yuan, AI chips 2.5 billion yuan. Client business reached 3 billion yuan, up 20%; gaming business was 781 million, down 30%.
What really matters is not whether revenue exceeds expectations but gross margin. AMD's own guidance is that its non-GAAP gross margin is close to 56%. If it can't even hold 56%, it means it's engaged in a price war with Nvidia. If it exceeds the limit, that's the real "AMD Yes."
In the past eight quarters, AMD has exceeded expectations seven times. But this time is different—it's no longer surprising that expectations have exceeded expectations; what's remarkable is that prices can rise after exceeding expectations.
🚀 SpaceX: Problematic students submit self-reflection letters, and the day after tomorrow will be watched by the whole school
SPCX fell from its IPO price of $150 to $114, and has been repeatedly halved from its all-time high of $225.64. Short positions amounted to $24.6 billion, accounting for 34% of outstanding shares.
Revenue forecast is 6.93 billion yuan, a significant increase from Q1's 4.7 billion yuan. Starlink's revenue is expected to be 3.82 billion, with operating profit of 1.42 billion. But the entire company is still losing money—EBIT forecast: -$1.55 billion.
But that's not the point. The key point is August 6 — 911.5 million shares unlocked, equivalent to $100 billion in market value flooding into the market. Currently, only 639 million shares are outstanding (accounting for 5% of total share capital), but after the lock-up is lifted, this will directly double to 12%**.
No matter how bad the financial report is, it's just so-so, but unlocking the lock-up can really crush the stock price.
💰 Circle: The crypto world's "money printer" is handing over its job, but the machine seems to be stuck
Circle is the only one among these three to turn a profit—last year it lost 0.43, this year it made 0.19. Revenue was 735 million yuan, up 11% year-on-year.
But there is a hidden risk: the circulating supply of USDC has dropped from 77 billion to 73.7 billion, a decrease of 4.6%. For Circle, this is equivalent to "the printing press running at a slower pace"—USDC circulation directly determines reserve revenue, which accounts for over 90% of Circle's total revenue.
Even more painful is that Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating, cutting its target price by 64%. The stock price has fallen 21% this year, dropping 3.61% just Monday to close at $60.35.
💎 Horizontal comparison: Who are the real winners?
Putting AMD, SPCX, and Circle next to tech giants' earnings reports from a few days ago is so beautiful that I can't bear to look at it:
Amazon: Revenue of $200.6 billion, AWS up 37%, market value surpasses $3 trillion—top students received full scholarships.
Microsoft: Revenue of 90 billion, Azure up 43%, up 23% in three days—top students received national scholarships.
Google: Revenue of 119.8 billion, the strongest cloud business ever, market value surpasses Apple—top student won the President's Scholarship.
Apple: Revenue of 109.4 billion, but guidance below expectations, market value evaporated by 350 billion—top student scored 95, parents asked, "Why not 100?" ”
Tesla: Revenue of 28.2 billion yuan, but profits crashed 57%, down 28% this year—a student with a strong academic background, perfect scores in math but failed Chinese.
AMD: Revenue of 11.3 billion, up 47%, but AI concept stocks collectively pulled back—those with a focus on the fields are working hard to fill gaps.
SPCX: Revenue of 6.9 billion, loss of 1.55 billion, 100 billion yuan ban imminent—repeating a year, the day after tomorrow will be watched by the whole school.
Circle: Revenue of 735 million, turning losses into profits, but USDC is shrinking—transfer student, just passed grades, but some suspect cheating.
🎯 My trading advice
AMD: Look at gross margin. Over 56% is good news; if it can't be held, it's bad. Don't bet on financial reports; wait for the numbers to come out.
SPCX: Don't touch. Financial reports are smokescreens; the 100 billion yuan unlock on August 6 is the real bombshell. Let the bears and insiders fight first, then wait and see.
Circle: Check USDC circulating supply. If Q2 continues to decline, no matter how good revenue is, it won't help—if the printing machine speed drops, the stock price won't rise.
I am the man who went from 10 to 17, then from 17 to 5.5 and back to 17. Tonight, AMD and SPCX are both handing over their papers—one is proving whether it's worth 100 billion in market value, the other is proving why it's worth 1 trillion.
Some people went to collect scholarships, some went to submit self-criticisms. Don't pick the wrong side.
Follow me. I'm not teaching you how to gamble on financial statements; I'll teach you to wait until your results come out before choosing courses. Follow me, and next earnings season, at least someone will be shouting in your ear— "Don't rush to hand in your papers!" Let's first see what the person next to him is writing! ”
---
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
⚡ @你的爱播Misa @皮神 @Wolf.Win @币圈搅屎棍 @可乐谈AI
$SPCX $MSFT Major International News!! #从降息到加息, Fed Divisions Fully Revealed: Hormuz Is Reopening, and the War Premium Has Been Drained All at Once
· Becent: We might reach an agreement with Iran tomorrow to open the Strait of Hormuz
· Rubio: Progress in negotiations; Iran's stance has softened, considering letting Europe enter the strait to clear mines
· WTI fell -5% intraday, falling back to $74.66; European stock Stoxx600 hit a July high
Once oil crashes, the logic of "war = inflation = rate hikes" loosens. Half a month ago, the market feared oil prices would push up inflation and force the Fed to hesitate to cut rates; Now, this downward catalyst is being dismantled one by one, and risk assets are collectively breathing a sigh of relief—Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +6%, Intel +10%.
The only thing still pretending to be asleep is crypto. $BTC Stuck to 64K, risk assets don't follow when they rise, and keep falling when they fall. This divergence of "following the decline but not the rise" is the signal to watch most now—the narrative favors the bulls, but the price fails to catch up.
Don't rush to translate macro positive news as a reason to buy. Wait until BTC releases its own withdrawal direction, then discuss whether to follow or not. Walking and looking 🧊 $DOGE Staring at the high-profile July ISM Manufacturing Index in my left hand, the audience inevitably erupted in exclamations—55.6! It reached a new high since May 2022, dancing in the expansion zone for seven consecutive months. CME even made a clear 67.2% decision for a 25 basis point rate hike in September. Everyone was watching this pigeon, convinced that the hawks' noose was tightening.
But this is nothing more than a textbook "misdirection."
True tricks always happen in shadows where the spotlight can't reach. While the eyes of the onlookers were drawn to strong fundamental data, the right hand of the market makers had already pulled off a surprise move in the card area: the US and Iran returned to the negotiating table, crude oil prices plunged over 7% in a single day, 10-year US Treasury futures surged by 13 pips, and the 30-year bond surged by 22 ticks.
Do you understand? This is the most fascinating "visual error" in the deception show. On the surface, strong data proudly shouts for "rate hikes," but long-term yields have slumped as if a bone has been drained. When Mate publicly called for the Fed to inject liquidity into the yen, the market makers had already quietly replaced the "tightening" toolbox with a "secretly swept pool" of liquidity.
While fundamentals are surging upward, the spark of geopolitical crisis is extinguishing downward, with the 30-year Treasury yield hovering around 5.3%. This is not market confusion at all, but rather a "double feint" set by the market makers during the reshuffling — using short-term interest rate panic to cover long-term liquidity withdrawal and position-building.
Mapping onto the token $XLLY, it is the hidden mirror above the stage. When traditional capital uses the oil price crash as a smokescreen to secretly grab long-term bond futures, the price linkage of $XLLY is nothing more than a hallucinatory reaction from retail investors due to visual lag. While the onlookers are still fiercely betting on the probability of rate hikes, smart money has already cashed out and left the backstage.
The game is never random; every jump and dive-up you see is a magic effect preset before the stage curtain opens.
#ISMBeatYieldsFall Based on the market trends from the past two trading days, let's talk about the complete price trend of $SNDK over the past two days
Performance from trading days 8-04
The overall bullish sentiment was very strong that day, driven by a recovery in the storage cycle and a significantly better-than-expected outlook in the forward-looking earnings. The opening price was $1,360, the intraday low dropped to $1,340, and the intraday surge rose to $1,415.37, with an intraday maximum gain of 9.29%, and the closing held above $1,407.
The total turnover for the day reached $9.222 billion, with a turnover rate of 4.51%. The forward-looking revenue and net profit both increased by over 250% year-on-year, attracting a large amount of short-term speculative funds to enter the market and compete in the official earnings rally.
However, the $1415 level is under heavy pressure, with multiple attempts to break through this level without success, accumulating many short-term take-profit chips.
The previous day's market movement
The previous day, the market was in a rock-and-out phase, with stock prices slowly testing upward. Funds began to pay attention to the recovery news of memory chips, and trading volume gradually warmed up, accumulating bullish momentum for the August 4 surge that occurred.
Current overall situation
Short-term moving averages are supporting the price, with the bullish trend intact, and $1387 is the key support level;
It is a short-term market driven by sector rotation, with the core market still being the computing power sector led by Nvidia;
Currently, the TTM P/E ratio is at 46.25, and the stock price has already overloaded most of the positive earnings reports. After the official earnings are released, there is a risk of a decline if the positive news materializes.
A simple short-term view
As long as the price holds the $1387 support, we can continue to wait and see; Repeatedly touching the $1415 resistance level but failing to break through, beware of short-term profit-taking funds fleeing and triggering price pullbacks.$UB Market + News analysis
⚠️ Just casual chatting on the market and does not constitute investment advice! AI-Agent sector coins face rampant volatility, with extremely high selling pressure risks from contract liquidation and token unlocking
Current Market Status:
The current price is 0.172, entering a high-level consolidation range after a round of violent rally. Driven by the AI Agent main theme, it has great elasticity when it hits the trend, and when the hype fades, the pullback is very strong.
A large part of this rally is driven by thematic sentiment + short covering, rather than sustained buying driven by real business cash flow. A large amount of short-term profit-taking has accumulated above, while previously historically trapped positions are clearly suppressed.
The market is highly tied to the BTC market + AI small-cap sector sentiment; When the AI sector collectively explodes, UB will go for it; With AI funds rotating out, UB's decline will be much greater than that of mainstream coins. Trading volume fluctuates between high and low, and a surge in volume can easily lead to a direct sell-off.
📰 Breaking down the news side
🟢 Positive
1. The narrative is positioned as a decentralized AI memory layer, providing AI Agents with on-chain persistent memory, integrating with mainstream agent protocols such as ElizaOS and Virtuals. The agent service market is already online, and the track is currently a hot main theme in the market, with real ecosystem collaborations being implemented—not just empty stories.
2. Binance Alpha launched, simultaneously activating perpetual contracts. With exchange traffic support, funds will prioritize returning to UB during AI sector rotation, keeping the community highly active.
3. Future iterations of ZK memory validation versions, ecosystem hackathons, and new agent collaborations can all serve as short-term catalysts for the market. Once the sector's popularity resumes, price elasticity will be fully unleashed.
4. Previously deeply oversold and fully swapped chips; when the market speculates on AI infrastructure, UB will benefit from the sector's beta dividends.
🔴 Core bearish news (suppressing the main trend)
1. Token unlocking is the biggest medium- to long-term risk: total supply of 10 billion tokens, currently only 25% in circulation, 75% tokens are locked, and the team, treasury, and community shares are continuously unlocked linearly, continuously generating potential selling pressure; If new buying cannot be sustained, the upside potential will be severely limited.
2. The narrative is strong, but actual on-chain paid usage is limited, token consumption demand hasn't been fully realized, and the price relies more on thematic speculation rather than business revenue. Once the market grows tired of AI-Agent aesthetics, funds will quickly withdraw.
3. The industry is highly competitive, with many similar AI infrastructure projects. If a project's iteration progress falls short of expectations, it is easy to be abandoned by capital.
4. Large fluctuations in contract positions, frequent long-short squeezing; With BTC weakening and the AI sector retreating, UB's decline will be amplified, with historical single-day drops of up to 30%.
Key price points
- The first resistance above is 0.195-0.210, a strong short-term cap; Volume growth is needed to stabilize for the rebound to continue; A surge with no volume is very likely to be a direct sell-off with profit-taking, and the price drops back.
- Strong resistance between 0.24 and 0.26; only after breaking through 0.21 will there be a chance to test the previous high.
- Short-term lifeline support is at 0.148-0.155. This round of rebound is within the core defensive range, holding the box and consolidating range.
- If it truly breaks below 0.132, the current rally structure will be disrupted, leading to a deeper pullback.
⚠️ For small-cap AI coins, inserting needles is common; a momentary breakout is not considered an effective breakout, and stop loss should not be set at whole number levels.
Bullish and bearish reality logic
✅ Bulls: AI Agent tracks are the main narrative, with ecosystem collaborations being implemented; Boosted by Binance traffic; After overselling, themes rotate and short covering brings a pulse rally.
❌ Bearish: huge unlocked selling pressure hanging overhead; Insufficient on-chain token consumption and story-driven effects; Profit-taking above + trapped market double suppression; The sector declined fiercely during the retreat.
Three scenario simulations
1️⃣ Optimistic scenario: Hold the 0.148-0.155 support, BTC will stabilize, AI sectors will collectively rebound, volume will hold above 0.21, and the market will challenge above 0.24; chasing on highs is strictly prohibited. The theme is a pulse market, suitable only for bottom-position gaming.
2️⃣ Baseline scenario (highest probability): 0.132-0.21 large box with severe oscillation. When good news comes, it rallys; when profit-taking is realized, it sells down, reselling chips back and forth, waiting for AI sector rotation and project version updates to choose direction.
3️⃣ Pessimistic scenario: Effectively breaking below the 0.148 support, combined with weakening market and AI-related decline, further pushing deeper below 0.132.
Honestly, I care about what I truly think
UB is a typical thematic gaming coin; don't hold it for the long term as a value coin. The market looks at two things: the AI sector's heat and the momentum to unlock selling pressure. The heat comes quickly, and so does the tide.
Already held: defensive reference near 0.148; if it breaks up to 0.195-0.21, if you can't break through, prioritize taking profits in batches.
No positions: prioritize observance; If you are playing through trial and error, participate with a very small position, strictly carry stop-losses, and be sure to keep contract leverage low.
Three key focus items: BTC market and overall heat in the AI-Agent sector; 0.148-0.155 support gain/loss; Announcement of the release of large token unlocks.
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public $BEAT Trade Review
I reversed too early.
A few days ago, I shorted $BEAT, entering at 4.1172 and closing at 3.0391 for a profit of over 100U.
The mistake came immediately after.
I barely had time to process the win before flipping long at 3.1334.
Now price is sitting around 2.87.
The position is down roughly 82% unrealized, with a floating loss of 25U on 28U of margin. That's not a small amount of money.
Looking back at the 15-minute chart, the mistake is obvious.
Price fell straight from 3.55 with almost no meaningful bounce. Going long at 3.13 was like stepping into a falling elevator and expecting it to go back up by pressing the button.
A classic case of trying to catch a falling knife.
The problem wasn't the market.
The problem was my rhythm.
I had just closed a profitable short and immediately wanted to catch the reversal. Instead of waiting for confirmation, I carried the mindset of the previous trade into the next one.
My plan
- No averaging down.
- No stubborn holding.
- 2.70 is my line in the sand. If it breaks with strong volume, I'll cut the position.
- If price rebounds toward 3.00, I'll also look to exit.
- No dragging the trade out.
Other charts
$PUMP looks strong today. The daily chart is breaking out on rising volume and is only a step away from the previous high around 0.0022. Still, meme coins are extremely volatile, and chasing strength often ends with buying the top. I'll stay patient.
$UB continues to grind higher. The daily chart is showing a clean V-shaped recovery, with the MACD crossing above the zero line. 0.16 remains key support. I'll only consider an entry after a healthy pullback that holds above that level. If no setup comes, I'll let it go.
Final thought
This $BEAT loss wasn't caused by poor technical analysis.
It was caused by poor timing.
I finished one winning trade, got greedy, and rushed into the next without letting the market reset.
25U isn't just a loss—it's tuition. Hopefully, it's a lesson I only have to pay once.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch $SPCX
Those who short Musk have never had a good ending in history.
But this time, they have already earned $7.3 billion.
In 2018, Tesla's stock price kept falling, Wall Street was collectively short-selling, and Musk cursed the bears on Twitter, even getting fined by the SEC.
Later, Tesla rose 20-fold, and the bears were almost wiped out.
In 2020, shorting Tesla was the busiest deal on Wall Street, and then Tesla soared sevenfold in a year, crushing the bears to dust again.
Musk summed it up himself: "Shorting my company has a very low chance of survival." "
Now, the same script has come to SpaceX.
The largest IPO in history, raising $85.7 billion, with an issue price of $135, quickly surged to $226. Then in two months, it dropped to $107, halved. Short sellers have already earned $7.3 billion, making it the second largest short stock this year after Tesla.
Musk said on X something almost identical to what he did in 2018: "Institutions shorting SpaceX have extremely low chances of survival." "
But this time, there is a key difference.
When Tesla was shorted in 2018, the company had already started to turn a profit, and the bears were betting against a profitable company. The ending is clear: the data will crush you.
Looking at SpaceX, it is projected to post a net loss of $4.9 billion for the full year of 2025. In Q1 2026, it lost another $4.28 billion. To this day, SpaceX is still a company that has never made money. This time, the bears are betting not on a profitable company, but on a company still burning cash.
Tonight is a turning point.
Q2 expected revenue was $6.88 billion, up 47% from $4.7 billion in Q1, with Starlink having 10.3 million subscribers, doubling year-on-year. If revenue hits sharply, losses narrow, and free cash flow improves, tonight will be a repeat of Tesla in 2018, crushing the bears.
But if the earnings don't hold up and losses continue to widen, then the bears might really have beaten Musk this time.
There's another bombshell in the head: on August 6, 911.5 million insider shares were unlocked. If the financial report is strong enough, unlocking pressure can be withstanded; if not, unlocking is the starting point for the second wave of selling pressure.
A financial report, unlocked in two days, a $7.3 billion bet from institutions shorting institutions—three events collide tonight.
Shorting Musk has always been a life-or-death gamble, and this is the first time bears have a chance to win.
Tonight's earnings report will determine whether they will go down in history or repeat their mistakes.🟠 A potential signal for Bitcoin's next rally may be emerging.
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have often unfolded in phases. Long-term holders (LTHs) gradually distribute part of their holdings into strength, then rebuild positions during corrections before the next major advance.
📊 In previous cycles: • The first rally was accompanied by measured profit-taking from LTHs. • During the following pullback, LTHs accumulated aggressively. • Once accumulation slowed and supply held by LTHs began to decline again, the second—and often stronger—rally followed.
This cycle has looked different.
The initial uptrend began in January 2023 and extended through late 2025, with LTHs actively buying and selling throughout the move. During subsequent corrections, they accumulated Bitcoin at a pace that exceeded their distribution.
Now, that accumulation trend appears to have paused, and LTH-held supply has started to decline.
📈 Previous cycles saw the second rally begin roughly 8 months (2013), 17 months (2017), and 16 months (2021) after the first. This time, the timeline has stretched much longer—likely influenced by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, continued institutional inflows, and sustained buying from new large holders.
💡 The key takeaway: Long-term holders still control the largest amount of Bitcoin on record, and if their supply is beginning to decline after a prolonged accumulation phase, it could signal the start of a new stage in the current market cycle.
As always, on-chain signals should be considered alongside macroeconomic conditions and broader market trends.
$BTC
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise 🐋 鲸鱼观察：谁还在2026年看好这些币？
=> $LINK
=> $TAO
=> $SOL
=> $FET
=> $SNDK
=> $MU
=> $AAVE
=> $ETH
=> $UNI
=> $NEAR $LAB $SOL $SSV $AR $LDO
仍然早期。仍在积累。🚨 SpaceX is down 50%—and the story may be bigger than the price decline.
This move isn't necessarily about a disappointing IPO. A major factor is the increase in tradable shares following lockup expirations, which can add significant supply to the market at a time when demand has cooled.
📉 Many investors focus only on the chart.
📊 Others pay close attention to the share unlock schedule and how changes in supply can influence price action.
The next meaningful opportunity may emerge after selling pressure begins to ease and the market fully absorbs the additional supply. That's often when longer-term investors start reassessing value.
For now, patience may be the better strategy.
⚠️ A sharp decline doesn't automatically mark the bottom—and panic selling doesn't necessarily create an immediate buying opportunity.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise Behind Musk's appeal to SpaceX, a fierce battle between bulls and bears may be on the horizon. 🚀
Currently, SpaceX's short positions have reached $24.6 billion, with about 219 million shares shorted, accounting for about 34% of the publicly traded shares.
This is no longer just a normal pullback, it has become a very busy short trade.
The following two key points are crucial:
📌 After Market Close on August 4: SpaceX Releases Earnings Report
📌 August 6: First tranche of shares opened, allowing early and knowledgeable shareholders to trade
One looks at performance, the other on chips.
If the earnings report exceeds expectations and the market withstands pressure to lift the lockout, short positions above 200 million shares could become fuel for the rally.
What he fears most is not bad news,
Only when everyone thinks it should fall—it doesn't fall.
Whether this could see an epic downward stampede depends on the current situation of Lau Ma. 😏🚀 $SPCX 📊 A curious divergence is unfolding in the markets.
The S&P 500 finished 1.5% higher, ending the session just below a new all-time high.
At the same time, $BTC slipped to around $62,400.
Both are considered risk assets—so why are they moving in opposite directions?
📈 Stocks continue to benefit from strong corporate earnings. Solid revenue, resilient margins, and upbeat guidance are helping equities absorb concerns over higher interest rates.
🟠 Bitcoin, however, doesn't have earnings to support sentiment. Instead, it remains highly sensitive to liquidity expectations. With markets pricing in a higher probability of another rate hike, crypto has faced renewed pressure.
📉 Despite roughly $170 million in ETF inflows on Monday, Bitcoin's price showed little response—suggesting meaningful selling pressure is absorbing demand.
The current narrative is straightforward: • Stocks are being driven by earnings. • Bitcoin is being driven by liquidity.
👀 Key levels to watch: • Friday's U.S. jobs report could shape the next major move across risk assets. • $63.3K remains an important technical level. A sustained move above it, supported by continued ETF inflows, could indicate selling pressure is fading. • A break below $62K may strengthen the bearish case if tighter liquidity continues to weigh on the market.
$BTC
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise The crash in July burst the AI bubble; AI has now entered the second half, and the market's approach has completely changed.
In the past, capital chased stories—whoever announced investing billions in AI saw their stock price rise; now, the market only looks at one thing—who truly turns AI into profit.
This earnings season in the U.S. stock market is the best example.
#亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局
After Amazon announced its results, its stock price surged continuously, rising more than 20% in just two trading days, once again becoming the market focus. The cloud computing business continues rapid growth, AI demand drives increasing enterprise orders, and although capital expenditure continues to rise, investors no longer worry about burning cash but believe these investments will yield returns in the future.
More interestingly, just as the stock price hit new highs, founder Bezos initiated a new round of share sell-offs.
Many retail investors are still chasing the highs, while the founder has already started realizing gains.
This is not bearish on the company but a reminder that even the best companies must face valuation issues.
Looking at other tech giants, performance is starting to diverge noticeably.
Microsoft remains strong, with enterprise-level AI demand continuously releasing, cloud business growth stable, and the market willing to assign a higher valuation because it has proven AI can not only enhance technical strength but also consistently generate profits.
Google also benefits from the AI boom, with decent cloud business performance, but investors still worry whether AI search will impact future ad revenue, so market sentiment remains divided.
Apple appears somewhat awkward.
Its traditional business still makes money, but AI features are still in the ongoing development stage. The capital market hopes to see AI bring new revenue growth, not just be part of product upgrades.
In contrast, Tesla faces greater pressure.
Autonomous driving, humanoid robots, Robotaxi—each story is full of imagination, but what truly reflects company value is the profit statement. When profitability declines, even the best stories struggle to sustain high valuations long-term.
The biggest recent market change is the re-pricing of AI companies.
In the past, it was about the scale of investment.
Now, it’s about the ability to make money.
Whoever can continuously deliver profits attracts capital; those still stuck in the concept phase may see their valuations re-examined.
The investment market has always been like this.
Rises rely on expectations.
Long-term rises rely on performance.
So facing this round of the market, I won’t blindly chase highs just because stock prices keep rising, nor will I rush to exit due to short-term adjustments.
What truly matters are companies that have proven their business models, have continuously improving cash flow, and still have room for future growth.
Stories can drive temporary sentiment.
Profits determine how far a company can ultimately go.
When investing, don’t just listen to others’ dreams.
First look at the earnings report, then the cash flow, and finally decide your position.
The market never rewards those chasing hot trends but often rewards those willing to wait for performance to materialize. "BTC's Most Expensive 5K: Direction Hasn't Emerged Yet, Beware of Account Wear First"
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Q3 · Issue 92
Aspirin · Cyclical Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective
BTC is currently around 64.1K, only about $200 above the rising 200-week moving average; the resistance band at weeks 20/21 has dropped to 68.6K to 68.9K. The two boundaries are only about 5K apart. Many see this narrow range and want to trade back and forth. What I see is a very costly market: both bulls and bears have reasons, but neither has confirmation. If you force a bet, you might guess the direction right but end up losing on entry.
1. Why is this 5K expensive?
Chasing longs at 66.5K, with the first resistance at 68.8K, the potential upside is about 3.5%; if the stop loss is set below 63.5K, you face about a 4.5% drawdown. The risk-reward ratio is less than 1.
Chasing shorts directly at 64.2K is also uncomfortable. The price hasn't confirmed a breakdown yet, and right below is the 200-week moving average, equivalent to selling above long-term support. Even if the bearish direction is ultimately correct, shorts might be cleared out first by a rebound.
No need to argue bulls vs bears here; just do the math. The potential gain in the middle of the range is less than the stop loss distance; frequent trading will only turn your judgment edge into fees and slippage.
The two weekly moving averages continue to converge. The 200-week moving average is slowly rising, while the bear resistance band keeps moving down. Each week the price stays in this wedge, more positions chase the rally or bottom; once a boundary is effectively broken, stop losses and covering orders will release simultaneously, and volatility will return.
2. Which side will August amplify?
In the past three mid-term years, BTC fell about 17.9%, 9.2%, and 13.9% in August respectively. With only three samples, I won't short just because the calendar flips to August.
Therefore, I lowered my position size for August. BTC rose about 21.0% and 16.8% in July 2018 and 2022 respectively, then retraced in August; this July only saw about a 7.3% rise. The safety cushion left by the rebound is thinner, and 69K hasn't been reclaimed. If the long-term moving average breaks in August, the correction will be harder to handle than in July.
History doesn't tell me to short now. It only reminds me not to use July's position size and patience in August.
Macro only leaves one fact that affects orders: the July meeting maintained rates unchanged by 9 to 3 votes; all three dissenters demanded a 25 basis point hike; no votes for a rate cut in the official tally.
For BTC, whether the Fed actually hikes is secondary; the market trades expectations first. Hot CPI, rising 2-year Treasury yields, and BTC breaking below 63.5K — these three pressures align in the same direction; if CPI cools and short-term rates fall, and BTC reclaims 69.2K, the bull breakout will be credible. Without price confirmation, just news, I won't change positions.
3. I only keep two reminders
Currently about 64.1K, I won't add leveraged longs. Existing long-term spot can be DCA'd gradually; funds planned for BTC allocation should only put the first 10%-15% between 62K and 64K, keeping at least half the cash for below 60K. Spot and contracts are accounted separately; unrealized losses can't be renamed as long-term investment by adding margin.
69.2K: If daily closes above, then retests 68.6K to 69.0K and holds, use one-third of planned position to go long; stop loss at 66.9K, first target 72.8K, remaining target 76K. If it spikes up without a pullback, I won't chase.
63.5K: If daily closes below, and rebound from 63.7K to 64.0K fails, use one-quarter of planned position to hedge; stop loss 65.2K, targets 61K and 58.2K. If intraday wick quickly recovers 64K, I won't chase shorts.
Between 63.5K and 69.2K, no new contracts opened. This is actually the most important rule.
I will leave two reminders in OKX at 63.5K and 69.2K; after the alert sounds, I will watch daily close and retest. Before triggering, risk budget stays in the account. The account doesn't need to prove my view every day.
Data notes: BTC real-time price as of August 4, 2026; moving averages calculated from BTC-USD weekly close prices; historical monthly returns based on Bitstamp BTC/USD open and close data; interest rate range and votes from the Fed statement on July 29. The above is personal research and conditional trading plan, not investment advice.
#BTC #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 In the past couple of days, discussions about Aztec V5 have heated up again on X, with many people directly equating "faster private transactions" with "the privacy sector entering a maturity phase." You can't jump this step yet.
There are two verifiable changes: Aztec's official Alpha V5 announcement states that native generation of private transfer proof takes about 2.5 seconds, while V4 takes about 5.2 seconds; The average block production time has been reduced from 14 seconds to 6 seconds, and partial proof and verification costs are reduced. On the other hand, the network is still officially labeled as Alpha. V5's improvements come from client-native proofs and protocol upgrades, which do not mean a stable user base or long-term security record has been established.
Therefore, when looking at this topic, the focus should shift from "performance numbers" to "whether users continue to use it": whether private transactions can retain developers, whether applications can run stably on real devices, and whether new public evidence emerges after governance upgrades and vulnerability bounties. The more accurate conclusion now is: V5 lowered the barrier to experience by a bit, but adoption and security validation are still ongoing. It is a technological advancement, not a profit signal, nor does it constitute trading advice.Miners Are Still Accumulating Bitcoin—A Potentially Bullish Signal
American Bitcoin's latest quarterly report showed another financial loss, but the bigger story wasn't the earnings—it was the company's capital allocation. Rather than selling newly mined $BTC to strengthen short-term cash flow, the miner increased its treasury to more than 8,000 BTC.
That decision reflects strong long-term conviction. By choosing to hold Bitcoin despite near-term financial pressure, one of the industry's major miners is signaling confidence in Bitcoin's future value. The company also reported record quarterly mining production, indicating that its operations continue to expand even in a volatile market.
For the broader crypto market, this development is constructive. When large mining companies hold onto their Bitcoin instead of selling it, the amount of BTC entering the market decreases, reducing potential selling pressure. If institutional demand through ETFs, corporate treasuries, and other long-term investors remains strong, a tighter supply-demand balance could provide additional support for Bitcoin's price.
A stronger Bitcoin market often benefits the broader digital asset ecosystem as well. Positive sentiment and increased liquidity can spill over into $ETH and other high-quality crypto assets, particularly if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.
While one company's strategy doesn't guarantee higher prices, miner behavior has historically been an important on-chain indicator. When miners choose accumulation over distribution, it often reflects confidence in the market's longer-term outlook.
Sometimes, the most meaningful signal isn't what a company earns—it's what it chooses to do with the Bitcoin it mines.
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BitcoinMining #Miners #Ethereum #DigitalAssets #InstitutionalAdoption #TrumpMinerLossAddsBTC #MSTRSells1638BTC #BitMineTopETHStaker#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 The Federal Reserve indeed showed a rare public split at its July 2026 meeting, one of the most severe divisions in nearly a decade. Simply put:
⚖️ Internal division: one side advocates rate hikes, the other side advocates rate cuts
· Hawks (advocating a 25 basis point hike): represented by local Fed presidents Logan, Harker, and Kashkari. They believe inflation has been above the 2% target for over five years, and current rates are not restrictive enough. Their core logic is that failing to act promptly will lead to higher costs to control inflation in the future.
· Doves (advocating a 25 basis point cut): represented by Fed Governor Waller. He warns that the labor market may deteriorate rapidly and believes the focus should shift from inflation to avoiding excessive cooling of the labor market.
This 9-3 vote result marks the Fed facing sharply opposing policy directions between its "dual mandate" (controlling inflation and maximizing employment).
📊 Market pricing: clearly leaning toward rate hikes
Despite voices for rate cuts, the market has not priced this in. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting has risen to 63.2%, with mainstream expectations highly concentrated on a hike.
🎤 Chair Walsh: the silent "referee"
Chair Walsh's stance is crucial; he chooses not to take sides. On one hand, he emphasizes the unwavering 2% inflation target; on the other, he refuses to give clear forward guidance. He believes financial markets have tightened on their own, partially substituting for rate hikes, preferring to let the market judge based on economic data.
💎 Summary
Currently, the Fed is deeply divided between hiking and cutting rates, while the market overwhelmingly bets on hikes. Therefore, the two CPI reports before the September meeting will be critical and likely the key factor tipping the balance.$LAB Why did it drop so quickly? Because both retail investors and major players have been selling since the 14th. 0.15% unlock each day, with large unlocks available on the 14th. This coin is different from others; every day it is unlocked by private placements, and at this price, there are five or six times the profit. There's no way you won't miss out. If the price can't go down now, it's all thanks to the trapped bulls. If one day a deep smash comes, the bulls will explode and be completely wiped out. I advise everyone to cut losses if trapped, and clear your positions when necessaryBTC has repeatedly confirmed support near $64,000, with a clear short-term divide between bulls and bears. If it holds, further upward movement is possible. ETH's rebound is clearly weaker than BTC's, and the $1870 level has not yet stabilized. Be wary of the risk of catch-up declines. Currently, market funds are clearly leaning toward mainstream Bitcoin, with intensified differentiation among altcoin holders. It is recommended to prioritize tracking BTC's momentum. ETH should wait for volume to recover $1900 before entering on the right; otherwise, focus on waiting and waiting for a while-view or light hedging.ETH ETF inflows have outpaced Bitcoin, but on-chain has yet to confirm the bottom. What position changes in the derivatives market are signals from institutional funds flowing into ETH? Ethereum spot ETFs recently recorded net inflows of about $365 million, surpassing Bitcoin ETFs. During the same period, the PyCore team began deploying Protocol 26, the ninth mainnet upgrade, and nodes are required to update within the deadline. Protocol 27 is scheduled to be the final upgrade in the current roadmap. - ETF capital flows are the most direct indicator of institutional demand for spot ETH. However, whether this inflow led to an increase in long positions in the futures market is another matter. - If funding fees cannot keep up with spot buying pressure, these funds can be classified as spot holding demand. This structure lowers the risk of leverage liquidation, but at the same time, it weakens the momentum of short squeezes. - Conversely, if funding fees turn upward and the basis expands, spot inflows will shift to derivative positions.Before I even changed my glasses, my position exploded, and life distorted along with the candlesticks. On the surface, it looks like 20x leveraged short ETH got counterkilled, but the underlying layer is betting on market rationality with a 'hold out for one more day' mentality, which simply doesn't hold up. That day, I sat in front of the screen, my old frame and nose pad had fallen off, the lens scratches were as dense as a spiderweb, and even the 4-hour moving average had to get close to see clearly. I thought that after finishing this order, I'd go get a pair of titanium frames and light frames, measured the prescription, and even selected the lens colors. But the market didn't give me even a moment to catch my breath. ETH was pulled from 1842 all the way to 1884, with floating losses on short positions instantly hitting 1269U. The account was cut in nearly half, and the liquidation price of 2038 was like a knife hanging overhead, getting closer and closer. I even opened two small positions to sound "professional" and hedged. SNDK made 0.01U, UB lost 0.02U, and together they couldn't afford a single piece of glasses cloth. What really hurt me wasn't the loss itself, but that I clearly saw what kind of narrative I was using to deceive myself. I reviewed the process and found that the entire transaction made the same mistake: mistaking "hope" for "evidence." I'm bearish on ETH, not because of abnormal funding rates or open interest divergence, but because I need it to fall, to fill the previous gap, and to pay for new glasses. Once this subjective demand enters market judgment, stop-loss becomes mere formality, adding positions becomes inertia, and in the end, you can only watch the price overrun your logic. Currently, there is a somewhat overlooked linkage signal in the market: the preference between US Treasuries and the Japanese yenThe latest macro data delivered an encouraging signal for risk assets. U.S. ISM Services PMI came in above expectations, reinforcing the view that the world's largest economy remains resilient. Even more notable, U.S. Treasury yields declined despite the stronger-than-expected report, suggesting investors see inflation pressures continuing to ease and believe the Federal Reserve could still have room to lower interest rates in the months ahead.
For the crypto market, this is a constructive combination. Falling Treasury yields generally improve liquidity conditions and increase the appeal of higher-risk assets, while stronger economic data helps reduce recession concerns. Together, these factors create a more supportive environment for both $BTC and $ETH.
If yields continue to trend lower and financial conditions become more accommodative, $BTC could attract additional institutional capital as its role as a scarce digital asset continues to strengthen. At the same time, $ETH may benefit from renewed demand for blockchain infrastructure, DeFi, tokenization, and the broader digital asset ecosystem.
The "ISM Beats, Yields Fall" narrative is increasingly being viewed as a positive macro catalyst for cryptocurrencies. A resilient economy paired with easing financial conditions could provide the backdrop needed for the next leg higher in digital assets. While short-term volatility is always possible, the macro outlook is becoming increasingly supportive for long-term crypto investors.
As always, monitor upcoming inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and Treasury yield movements, as they are likely to remain key drivers of crypto market sentiment in the weeks ahead.
$BTC $ETH
#ISMBeatYieldsFall #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Fed #Macro #DeFi #DigitalAssets #MSTRSells1638BTC #BitMineTopETHStaker📰 Wu reports: Major milestone in Russian crypto legislation
Russian President Putin has officially signed Federal Law No. 282-FZ "On Digital Currency and Digital Rights," with the new regulations taking effect in phases starting September 1.
Key points of the law
1. Retail investor access rules
Non-qualified investors, after completing a risk assessment, can only purchase up to 300,000 rubles worth of cryptocurrency annually through a single licensed intermediary, setting a personal annual investment limit to prevent excessive retail speculation.
2. Industry inclusion under regulatory framework
Exchanges, brokers, custodians, and crypto exchangers are all brought under the supervision of the Russian Central Bank. Market participants must apply for official licenses to operate; unlicensed operations will be restricted.
3. Long transition period arrangement
The law sets a buffer period until July 1, 2027; after the transition, domestic crypto trading can in principle only be conducted through licensed institutions and licensed banks, with over-the-counter scattered trading continuing to tighten.
Market impact analysis
Overall characterization: Russia is shifting from broadly ambiguous restrictions to an orderly, compliant regulatory approach.
Short-term sentiment:
This is a moderately positive development in the medium to long term, marking another major country establishing a clear crypto legal framework, continuing the global trend of "classified regulation and orderly inclusion."
However, the constraints are very clear: strict limits on ordinary residents’ quotas mean it is unlikely to bring massive incremental funds in the short term. Do not overhype this news for short-term price spikes.
Medium to long-term highlights:
Russia has a large existing crypto user base and mining infrastructure. After the licensing system is implemented, gray market transactions will gradually become transparent, providing compliant channels for domestic institutions and cross-border funds.
⚠️ Important distinction:
The law allows investment in crypto assets but still does not recognize cryptocurrencies as legal tender within the country; investment and payment attributes are strictly separated.
Trading reminder:
This news is a structural macro catalyst, positive for the industry’s long-term outlook, but unlikely to independently drive BTC into a one-sided rally. Current market conditions remain dominated by US stock liquidity, Middle East geopolitics, and Federal Reserve expectations. Do not rely solely on this news to speculate on the market.
$BTC #CryptoRegulationUpdate
📌 Liquidity preference | Today's watchlist
$BTC · $ETH · $SOL · $BEAT · $EDGE · $COAI · $TRUMP · $VIRTUAL · $SPACE · $SOPH · $IP · $AVNT · $ZAMA · $OFC · $PIEVERSE ·
$ACU · $H · $MEGA · $JELLYJELLY · $OPG · $SLX · $LAB · $BSB · $ALLO · $CHIP · $MEME · $EDEN · $HUMA · $ZKP · $CORE · $TAO · $WLD · $DOGE · $RENDER · $TIA · $HYPE · $METIS · $AVAX · $SUI · $ZEC
⚠️ Market information observation only, not investment advice! The news leans toward medium to long-term narrative with limited short-term increments; beware of pullbacks after positive news realization.$AEHR 网传美国拟禁中国光模块进口 业内：传闻无官方依据 落地可行性极低
近日有外媒援引匿名信源称，美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）拟于2026年出台禁令，禁止进口中国产新型数据中心光收发模块。经多方核实，该消息目前仅来自未具名人士爆料，美方尚未发布任何正式草案或公开征求意见文件，不具备政策效力。
据原报道自身表述，相关限制方案仍处于内部初步草拟阶段，后续仍存在大幅修改、缩减范围甚至直接搁置的可能，网络上“禁令即将落地”的说法属于断章取义的过度解读。
从产业现实来看，中国厂商占据全球数据中心光模块市场主导份额，美国本土企业现有产能与技术规模无法在短期内完成替代。若强行推行禁令，将直接推高美国AI算力基建成本、延缓建设进度，已遭到北美主流云厂商与科技企业的普遍反对，政策落地存在极强的现实阻力，最终成行概率极低。
业内提醒市场参与者理性甄别信息，一切以官方正式公告为准，切勿被不实传闻引发不必要的恐慌。#MSTRSells1638BTC
The Luoyang shovel reached thirty centimeters below the surface, where a layer of fresh backfill soil was buried—this was the mark of a giant beast that had just flipped over. I squinted, blew away the ashes, and saw the numbers: 1,638 BTC, average price $63,957. That's $11,462 less than its cost price. It was like discovering a jade suit in a burial pit—several strands of golden thread removed, yet still stubbornly maintaining the dignity of a king.
Archaeologically speaking, the decline of large civilization sites is never sudden. It first involved a small "reduction in sacrifices," followed by an even smaller "reduction in tribute." Last time, it was 3,588 coins, redeemed for $216 million; this time, only 1,638 coins remain, with 104.7 million recovered in return. Cutting the scale in half means the tomb owner still hasn't planned to tear down the entire pyramid and sell the stones. It still holds 842,138 pieces—a complete underground royal city strong enough to crush the earth's mantle, with the core tomb chamber intact.
But you should know, what tomb robbers fear most is not large tombs, but tombs where burial goods are thrown outside. When a pyramid begins to move gold toward the tomb passage, either there are more valuable items to be placed in from behind, or the air in the front chamber is already tainted with poison. The average price for this round of selling was 63,957, following the nearly five-month sideways pattern, like a bronze vessel with a rusted chip, ready to crack at any moment.
A closer look at the strata profile: from July 27 to August 2, during these seven days, it moved its coins into the tomb passage and opened a second door—299,843 Bitcoins were dragged onto the chain between August 2 and 3. The dust hanging on the chain has yet to settle, and the next exploration report is not yet finished. Where did the money go? Invest in preferred shares with 12% fixed dividend. That is its "perpetual lamp"—the lamp oil never runs out. But the lamp oil had to be scraped from the burial goods, which meant the cash flow in the underground palace had dried up so much you could hear the echoes.
What's even more intriguing is the phrase—"Preferred shares will only resume buying when the price drops back to the issue price." Now the discount is 10%. This meant that the gold ingots it had unearthed would first be forged into the passage marked on the treasure map, and only after the coordinates on the map were claimed would it be willing to continue digging the main tomb. This is a typical archaeological team strategy: first stabilize the patron's appetite, then take real action.
I have seen too many civilizations decline. It wasn't destroyed by foreign enemies, but by deliberately tearing bricks from their own city walls to exchange for military pay. First, it's tactical; Twice, it's rhythm; The third time, no one believed the city was still impregnable. Fortunately, the size of the pyramid in its hands was still suffocating—842,138 pieces, enough for any bottom-fisher trying to draw the final treasure map to weigh their shovel before dawn.
Rust had already crept onto the bronze's patterns, but had not yet eroded the inner wall.📰 BlockBeats news
On August 4, Iranian news television quoted a senior Iranian official as saying that the U.S. government is attempting to obstruct ongoing negotiations between Iran and Oman over the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite obstruction from the U.S., negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz have entered a "new phase."
On the 4th, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio told the media that the most urgent and closely watched issue right now is the Strait of Hormuz issue. The U.S. is participating in dialogues and negotiations between Oman and Iran to discuss how to allow more ships to safely pass through the strait in the short term.
Market information analysis
On the same incident, both sides showed clear differences in their statements, which is a typical 'Rashomon' feature of the Middle East situation.
Previously, the market continued to trade expectations of "restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," which drove international oil prices lower and eased risk aversion.
⚠️ Key objective summary:
1. Iran confirmed it would only conduct strait management negotiations with Oman, accusing the U.S. of obstruction; The United States has stated its intervention in the Iran-Oman dialogue, aiming to promote the short-term safe passage of merchant ships. There are conflicting positions expressed by both sides, and the true progress of the negotiations remains unclear.
2. At this stage, everything is just news about the negotiation process, with no formal navigation agreement yet implemented. Repeated reversals in geopolitical news are the norm and cannot be directly declared that the conflict risk has been completely resolved.
Crypto Market Impact Projection:
✅ If the bulls reach a general navigation arrangement in the future: geopolitical risk aversion premiums continue to fade, and risk asset sentiment will be supported;
❌ If negotiations stall and conflicts intensify again: safe-haven funds flow back into crude oil and gold, BTC and ETH are vulnerable to pressure.
Trading Reminder:
Geopolitical news fluctuations are highly misleading; during the rumor phase, avoid heavily betting on one side. Before the boots officially land, maintain restrained positioning and prepare two-way response plans.
$BTC #宏观快讯 #中东局势
📌 Liquidity Selection | Continue to monitor the list of targets today
$BTC · $ETH · $SOL · $BEAT · $EDGE · $COAI · $TRUMP · $VIRTUAL · $SPACE · $SOPH · $IP · $AVNT · $ZAMA · $OFC · $PIEVERSE ·
$ACU · $H · $MEGA · $JELLYJELLY · $OPG · $SLX · $LAB · $BSB · $ALLO · $CHIP · $MEME · $EDEN · $HUMA · $ZKP · $CORE · $TAO · $WLD · $DOGE · $RENDER · $TIA · $HYPE · $METIS · $AVAX · $SUI · $ZEC
⚠️ Market information observation is only and does not constitute investment advice! Geopolitical news is constantly changing, with strict control over positions.#BlackRock launches two funds dedicated to stablecoin reserves, this news sounds like issuing ration coupons to the crypto circle, but the market doesn't cooperate. Old money isn't coming in to catch the bag of altcoins, but to bottom-fish liquidity. The most important thing the market needs to clarify now: where is the money flowing, don't use faith as a chip.
[Layered Analysis]
First layer: Core assets are the main switch for total capital. $BTC holds steady at 65000, $ETH at 3480 with weak follow-up gains. When the switch is on, they are the last to rise; when off, the worst hit are the tokens behind them. This layer is the foundation, not for getting rich quick.
Second layer: AI narrative is currently the tightest capital cluster. $TAO broke out with volume today, $FET followed along, $RNDR is holding back on the chart. AI has a story, computing power demand, and imagination space retail investors can understand—if capital isn't embracing this, what else?
Third layer: RWA compliance direction, the necessary path for traditional capital to test the waters. $ONDO steadily climbs, $CFG quietly builds infrastructure. BlackRock's stablecoin reserve fund essentially endorses RWA; this layer follows a slow bull logic, no rush.
Fourth layer: Meme sentiment, the rebound during ebb tide is a chance to escape. $PEPE surged then fell back, $WIF dropped badly, $DOGE is just playing dead. Meme isn't unplayable, but now it's all about running fast.
[Market Core Data]
$BTC 65200 / -0.8% / 32.4B
$ETH 3480 / -1.2% / 15.2B
$BNB 585 / -0.5% / 2.3B
$SOL 145 / +2.1% / 4.1B
$ADA 0.42 / -3.1% / 600M
$TAO 420 / +5.4% / 320M
$ONDO 1.15 / +4.8% / 210M
$PEPE 0.000012 / -6.3% / 1.2B
$WIF 2.05 / -8.8% / 870M
Commentary: $BTC consolidates with shrinking volume, $SOL quietly strengthens, $TAO clearly has capital behind it. $ADA continues to decline, don't fall in love with weak assets.
[Capital Flow]
🟢 Capital inflow cluster: $TAO $FET $ONDO $SOL
👀 Watchlist: $BTC $ETH $RNDR $CFG
🔴 Weak trend, no participation for now: $ADA $DOGE $PEPE $WIF
🫥 Other tracked targets: $LINK $ARB
[Operation Suggestions]
Focus on going long $TAO. Enter around 420, stop loss at 395, first target 460, add positions after effective breakout aiming for 500. Logic: core of AI sector, volume supports it, as long as the market doesn't crash, it has independent momentum. Keep position under 20%, no all-in.
[Risk Warning]
The biggest risk is $BTC suddenly breaking below 63000, then all bullish logic must be reassessed, AI and Meme will be hit hardest. So every long position must have a stop loss, don't hold losing positions. Remember: BlackRock's money is here to make money, not to save you.
See clearly where the money flows, don't get emotional with your positions.
$BTC $ETH $USDT $USDC $BNB $SOL $XRP $ADA $DOGE $TRX $LINK $DOT $AVAX $MATIC $LTC $BCH $UNI $ATOM $ETC $FIL $HBAR $VET $ALGO $ICP $NEAR $SHIB $APT $ARB $OP $SUI $TIA $INJ $STX $KAS $RUNE $MKR $AAVE $COMP $CRV $SUSHI $SNX $LDO $RPL $SSV $PENDLE $JUP $JTO $WIF $PEPE $FLOKI $BONK $TAO $FET $RNDR $AGIX $OCEAN $AKT $PAAL $WLD $AR $TON $NOT $PYTH $ENS $ZEC $DASH $XMR $EGLD $FLOW $SAND $MANA $AXS $CHZ $GALA $IMX $BLUR $SEI $DYDX $ONDO $CFG
#BlackRock launches two funds dedicated to stablecoin reserves $ADA
##BlackRock launches two funds dedicated to stablecoin reserves #ContractTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketWatchSanDisk reviewed intraday trading on August 4
$SNDK Why do stocks that are stored immediately trigger a market boom right after the market opens? $BTC Below is a breakdown based on complete order book data
$ETH Daily core market data
As of 11:26 ET, current price is $1407.665, with a single-day increase of 9.29%.
Yesterday's closing price: $1,288.03
Today's opening price: $1360
Intraday high: $1415.37
Intraday low: $1340
The turnover was $9.222 billion, with a turnover rate of 4.51% and a total market capitalization of $208.5 billion
Early disclosure of pre-release financial report data: revenue up 251.03% year-on-year, net profit attributable to shareholders up 287.02% year-on-year
The entire intraday price movement
At 9:31 AM in the morning, the market opened with a jump immediately. Short-term funds saw expectations of a rebound in storage cycles and immediately entered the market to push prices higher.
The stock price quickly surged to a daily high of $1415.37, with many short-term traders choosing to take profits and exit, causing a brief pullback and fluctuation to wash away floating chips.
After an hour of chip turnover, the sector's heat continued to ferment, with the electronics and technology sector rising 2.81% overall. The industry rallied support for SanDisk, with buying momentum renewed and prices firmly holding above the $1400 mark.
The driving factors behind the rise
The storage industry cycle reversed, with spot prices for flash memory chips continuously rising, and the market ahead of the market to prepare for official earnings reports, with outlook earnings growth far exceeding market expectations;
US stock funds have withdrawn from AI software giants that previously overpriced them, initiating short-term rotation in the hardware storage sector;
The entire semiconductor sector experienced an explosive growth, with Micron and SK Hynix rising simultaneously, and sector sentiment driving each other.
Hidden dangers lie at present
$1415.37 has failed twice in attempts, with heavy short-term take-profit pressure piling up here;
Most inflows were short-term speculative funds betting on earnings reports, while mainline market funds remained in Nvidia's computing power sector, with storage only as a temporary side trend;
Currently, the TTM P/E ratio is 46.25, and the stock price has already overloaded most of the positive financial reports. Once the official earnings are released, the positive news is likely to be realized and prices will decline. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Close, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% in After-Hours The crypto industry spent nearly $200 million this year in the U.S. midterm elections.
This money won't immediately push $BTC higher, but it will influence who sets the rules in the coming years. After the Stablecoin Act was passed last year, it became much easier for institutions to enter this market. Now, the industry continues to push for the CLARITY Act to address the issue of who controls the trading platform and tokens.
This is a medium- to long-term positive for Bitcoin; after policy risks decrease, large funds are more willing to allocate funds. $ETH, DeFi, and crypto companies in the US market may react more directly, as they rely more on regulatory boundaries.
In the short term, it depends on whether the bill can continue to advance in the Senate. If the market stalls before the recess, it won't pay for political investment. Only after it actually takes root will the weight of this news become clear.
Personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice.