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These three orders Micron used AI to calculate short-term stop-losses, which is considered the high point after the decline and rebound, and then I opened the order early. Both online and AI gave me a position opening price of 999 Apple may have set its stop-loss too low and couldn't withstand market volatility. Before the earnings came out, it was rising slowly. The report is a big positive, and the guidance for the future is to control AI spending. It has little to do with Apple, but after the earnings came out, the price dropped immediately, and it was disappointing if it didn't benefit Microsoft is watching him hesitate between Mate and Microsoft. He finished releasing his earnings report late at night and drove it up, hitting my stop-loss time. Maybe cloud service revenue has surged, maybe it can cover AI expenses What I should be doing right now 1. Deleveraging/Position Reduction: For the next trade, force yourself to lower your margin to within 10% of your account. First, let yourself live a little longer. 2. Redefining Stop-Losses: ● If you insist on watching the daily chart, the stop loss must be placed at the key structure level at the daily level (such as the previous swing high/low). ● If this position is too far away, causing potential losses exceeding 5% of the account, abandon the trade outright. Do not try to force a trade by narrowing your stop-loss. 3. Create a "Financial Report Entry Zone": Mark all your holdings' financial report days in red on your calendar. The day before the earnings report, either close positions or set a break-even loss. Absolutely don't stay overnight betting on financial reports with orders. 4. Verify AI signals: Next time AI gives you a '999' level, treat it as an observation zone, not an open position. When it reaches 999, open the 1-hour chart and wait until it stops falling before entering. Foreign capital has started bottom-fishing the Korean stock market, while retail investors' leverage has dropped from 50 billion to 20 billion USD The deleveraging speed of Korean leveraged ETFs is faster than when I wrote this data last time. The last time Korea leveraged ETFs were valued at about $26.5 billion, with the leveraged exposure accounting for about 2.1% of the free-float market capitalization of the Korean stock market. According to the latest data, the total size has further dropped to about $20 billion, and leverage exposure has also dropped to around 1.5%. Compared to the peak at the end of June, the total size of Korean leveraged ETFs has shrunk by about 60% from over $50 billion, and the nominal exposure to free-float market capitalization has dropped from 3.3% to 1.5%, basically returning to the levels seen at the end of February to early March. The fund maintains smaller stock exposures, and mechanical buying for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is rapidly disappearing. When Korean semiconductors rose in recent months, the net asset value of leveraged ETFs increased further, forcing funds to continue buying to maintain fixed leverage. The larger the scale, the stronger the rebalancing buying before the close, and rising stock prices attract more retail investors, forming a cycle of rise, subscription, increased positions, and continued upwards. The stock price decline causes the fund's net asset value to shrink, retail investors redeem and force the fund to continue reducing positions, and daily rebalancing leads to additional selling when prices fall. Funds that previously amplified the gains in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are now continuously weakening the Korean stock market's support capacity. This also explains why, in the latest capital flow, foreign capital has started large-scale net buying, while Korean retail investors are focusing on selling. Retail investors may not suddenly become collectively bearish; more likely leveraged funds that bought at previous highs have finally reduced their positions on the rebound, while foreign investors, after valuations and positions have dropped sharply, have started to take on the shares sold by retail investors. However, this round of deleveraging is not yet over. Currently, the scale of Korean leveraged ETFs is still close to three times that of the beginning of the year, and the proportion of leveraged exposure to free-float market value is also significantly higher than at the beginning of the year. Leverage has dropped from extreme levels, but hasn't fully returned to normal.Note BTC tonight may not be an ordinary fluctuation It was a liquidation strategy If the US and Japan really join forces to stabilize the yen, On the surface, the market appears positive The US dollar weakened BTC surged Gold rebounded Tech stocks recovered But the truly dangerous place It is yen carry trade In the past, many funds borrowed cheap yen Go buy US stocks Buy BTC Buy high-risk assets If the yen suddenly surges These positions may be forced to close At that time, BTC will not fall It's not about technical skills Leverage funds are the ones who survive first Gentle intervention BTC may continue to rally by borrowing the weakening US dollar Violent intervention BTC could be a needle Break through high-multiples long positions and chasing gains together Tonight, the biggest fear isn't BTC not rising It first pulls a bullish candlestick It feels like a breakthrough Then the yen suddenly accelerated Risk assets fell together This is where the most ruthless aspect of BTC contracts lies You think you're trading a breakout In fact, it is fueling macro liquidity Tonight, don't miss out on the BTC rally Even more afraid of breaking in A single macro spike directly blows out the position The above is just market observation This does not constitute investment advice Contract leverage is extremely risky Investing carries risks; enter with caution SPCX's earnings report was only one full trading day after the initial unlocking was released. This adds an extra layer to every figure in the August 4 earnings report: it needs to find enough reasons to take over the 911.5 million shares that may enter the market on August 6. According to the unlocking arrangement, eligible shareholders can sell up to 20% of the restricted shares. Based on recent price estimates, the corresponding scale is close to $100 billion, even exceeding the current public float. Prices have already moved a long way ahead of schedule. $SPCX On July 31, it closed at $108.37, about 19.7% lower than the IPO price of $135, and about 52% retracement from the high of $225.64. This indicates that the unlockdown panic has entered the price, but the decline does not directly prove that selling pressure has been digested. Current prices reflect the expectations of smaller circulating units on news; After the lock-up is lifted, the market will test actual demand under larger circulating stocks. There is also a clear gap in fundamentals. Starlink's revenue grew 50% year-on-year last year, while SpaceX's overall loss approached $5 billion. If the financial report only shows user and revenue growth, without improvements in profit margins, operating cash flow, and capital expenditures, the reason for early shareholders to hold will continue to weaken once they qualify to sell. Conversely, a clear Starlink profit path can increase willingness to take on the profit. If the price has already pulled back more than halfway and encounters unexpected cash flow, it is easy to trigger short covering and new buying simultaneously. 911.5 million shares is just the upper limit for sale. The final amount of selling pressure depends on the valuation support provided by the earnings report and how much employees and early investors are willing to cash out near $108. August 4 tests the story, August 6 tests funds. The combination of these two tests is the core of this SPCX fluctuation. #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted $HYPE Completed a bull and bear cycle in three months: From $76 to $51, who's running? Why run? If you haven't followed $HYPE, remember its identity: Hyperliquid's platform token. Hyperliquid is currently the largest decentralized perpetual contract exchange in the crypto space, with open interest once exceeding $11 billion. Its token, HYPE, is the ticket to this boat—the busier the boat, the more expensive the ticket. But in the past two months, while the ship is still running, the stock has been falling. 1. Trend Review: In three months, rolled back from the summit to halfway up Looking at the daily chart, HYPE's performance is much more severe than BTC's: On May 17, HYPE was around $43. A week later, on May 21, the price surged nearly 20% in a single day, with a volume increase of 220 million, reaching $61. This is the first wave of FOMO. In early June, it continued to top, reaching 75.57 on June 4, then plunged 14% in a single day on June 5, with a massive volume of 156 million dumped. But the bulls didn't die—on June 16, it surged to 76.94, setting a new all-time high. On June 18, the nightmare began. After 76.94 was taken down, it never returned. It struggled near 70 at the end of June, fell below 65 in early July, accelerated in mid-July, dropped below 55 on July 28, and as of today (August 2) has dropped to $51.37—a full 33% drop from its all-time high. From the all-time high on June 16 to today, a total of 47 trading days, HYPE has dropped by one-third. Neither BTC nor ETH has experienced such a decline. This is not following the market; it is its own problem. 2. Who is running? VCs are running, leverage is running, and unlocking expectations is weighing on everyone HYPE's decline is due to three layers of reasons. First: VC is running. In late July, on-chain data caught two major moves: Multicoin Capital unstaked 1.96 million HYPE (about $120 million), and Paradigm unstook 2.92 million HYPE (about $170 million)—the two companies together totaled about $291 million. Although Multicoin's partners came forward saying "it's not staking to sell, it's just wallet rotation," the market doesn't believe it. At this point, you unlock the chips locked for eight months and then say, "Don't worry, I'm not selling"—is this a retail investor trust? What's even more heartbreaking is that Multicoin just released a research report a month ago, setting a target price of $319 for HYPE. But when the price dropped to 60, it ran away first. This is the most expensive information gap in the market—research reports are written for retail investors, while positions are meant for yourself to move. Second: leverage is used to close positions. HYPE's futures open interest has sharply shrunk from its highs, and bulls are being liquidated wave by wave—each round of liquidation is a forced sell-off, and the forced selling triggers a new round of liquidation. This process doesn't require any bad news, just one "who once bought above 70 and is still stuck"—when the price drops below 55, their positions start to explode. Under a chain of liquidations, intraday insertions and high-volume bearish declines alternate. Third: The unlock on August 6th hangs overhead. On August 6, approximately 9.92 million HYPE (about 1% supply, valued at about $500 million at current prices) will be unlocked to core contributors. The target is insiders—every time such an unlock has occurred in history, it has been accompanied by massive sell-offs. Only four days left until the unlock, and now every holder is wondering: "Will they smash it after unlocking?" Should I run first? "—Selling pressure doesn't start on the day of unlocking; pricing starts two weeks before unlocking. 3. What is the current situation? Looking at the 4H and 15m lines, HYPE is currently in a typical "bearish downward speed zone" state. The price fluctuated narrowly between 51.10 and 52.18, with only 20,000 to 30,000 trading volumes per 15-minute moving average—extremely light trading. A low-volume sideways movement usually means that bearish momentum is weakening; no one is dumping or buying, and the market is waiting for the next catalyst. But this catalyst is very likely to be unlocked on August 6. If core contributors really start selling after unlocking, 51 is highly likely to be held. Below, look at 48 → 45; If someone steps up to support the market after unlocking (or the unlocker declares not to sell), this could be the short-term bottom. Key Locations (Just Remember Three): 52.2: Short-term resistance, today's high 48: First support below, support zone for the June plunge 44: The mid-May rally is a real hard bottom 4. Summary $HYPE's fundamentals are not bad—platform open interest is hitting new highs, ETFs have seen nine consecutive weeks of inflows, and institutions like T. Rowe Price are also holding positions. But all of these were smashed through in the face of "VC unlocking and selling + leveraged chain liquidation + insider unlocking coming soon." In the short term, the selling pressure after unlocking can be absorbed; in the medium term, whether the Hyperliquid platform can maintain its growth trend. If decoded selling is sold out + the platform continues to grow, this round may be a process of chip turnover; If post-unlock selling gets out of control + platform growth slows, the $HYPE adjustment cycle will be longer than most people imagine. #HYPE再遭亿元解押, Japanese companies entered the market for the first time It's the weekend, so let's talk about the macro "main storyline of US Treasury bonds." I guessed it would push up the CPI, but I didn't expect it to be the high oil prices caused by the Iran war. The anticipated goal of maintaining DXY's strong position is to exploit the Iran war crisis to exploit the "dollar shortage." Not letting Japan sell off US Treasuries, holding down Japan and South Korea, and investing in the US is quite predictable. Similarly, "other countries aren't fools; they won't sit and wait for harvests. Where they can exchange hard assets, they immediately start exchanging them—commodities, mineral resources, precious metals—these are the real money." The collective upward trend in commodities is also quite obvious, $DBC a clear bullish trend. Interestingly, in June, commodities eased their decline due to strait issues, and soon after, the escalation of the Iran conflict began in early July, lifting bulk commodities up. Today, the action to strike Iran was canceled again. Keeping oil prices high is beneficial for the entire debt resolution path, but if it's too high, it's useless. The rate of interest rate increases can't > the rate of inflation increase. Starting an Iran war is definitely a bad move (sacrificing the "prestige of the heavenly soldiers" pillar in the dollar, an overall analysis of the Iran war. However, the subsequent back-and-forth TACO drama actually has decent results. The rise in oil prices at least has enabled debt resolution methods to "pull inflation" and "maintain a strong dollar," and can easily manipulate South Korea and Japan. It's truly a matter of repeatedly harvesting the "blood packet allies." Originally, during the early stages of the Iran-Iran war, when oil prices soared, China, as the world's largest oil buyer + massive strategic reserves prepared in advance + stable supply of Russian crude oil, had a trump card to easily push crude oil prices up to 200 yuan, as Iran claimed, enough to trigger an energy crisis. But what surprised me was that during the March-June Strait crisis, China not only took advantage of the situation but also released reserves to help Southeast Asian countries get through difficulties, actively reducing crude oil imports to help the US suppress oil prices. This action was personally praised by Trump. During his visit to China on May 13, Xi Jinping directly told Trump to avoid the "Thucydides trap." Now I feel that China truly wants to "peacefully" push the U.S. out of its sphere of influence. This operation is much harder than fighting a war—it's practically a show of skill The only question now is: "How will interest rates go?" The core issue is simple: "We need trillions of dollars to buy US Treasuries to take over." Trump's goal is to find money at that level or assets anchored to debt value. We can't let the Fed "directly" print money. Last week, the Fed's stance of not raising interest rates led the bond market to believe Warsh lacked real determination to control inflation and was just empty talk. Yields immediately jumped straight up, showing that the "big money" in the real bond market is very sensitive to signals from the Fed and the U.S. government wanting to "monetize debt." My original guess was that a "fake recession" was needed to cause panic in the stock market to flood into the bond market and take over. (Detox storyline that appeared during DOGE's active March 2025) Is there any "trillion-yuan" level of capital? Of course it does, it's on the FED balance sheet. Previously, there was a reverse repo balance, now it's gone, but there is still a reserve balance. If Warsh really implements balance sheet reduction, driving out some reserves that are just sitting on interest, and then these risk-averse funds can buy bonds. Under this happy path, the goal of "cutting interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet" can be achieved. The question is, if this money comes out, how can it be guaranteed to flow into the bond market? There is no guarantee that U.S. long-term bonds might now be considered "risk assets" in the eyes of this money. Another area is the stock market. If the stock market crashes, panic funds will flee, and the stock market will naturally flow into the bond market, which serves as a safe haven. The cost of these methods to leverage trillions in capital flows is a stock market crash, the market begins trading recession expectations, and the market keeps falling, hitting a low point like in March 2020. Warsh flipped the market, presenting his FED put strike price line, announcing a massive liquidity injection to rescue the economy, a V-shaped rebound in the stock market, the government successfully rolling out debt, and the economy only stagnates for a short time, and everyone is happy. But now I think this "fake recession" scenario is difficult. First, the November midterm elections are definitely over. If they lose, Trump and his family feel like they're just futures dead. It's a bit of an exaggerated rhetoric to express that if the Democrats come to power in 2028, he and his family will be purged, and it will be worse than 2020-2024. The second is the AI capex bubble that's been hyped up until now, and the money made is nothing compared to the investment. Several big players in the S&P 500 heavyweight stocks have all been drained, and now it's time for an 'artificial recession.' Can the US economy withstand this AI bubble? I have some doubts. Besides "lowering interest rates," there is another path: stalling tactics. Interest rates don't necessarily have to fall; as long as they don't rise too fast, it's fine. Keeping inflation up no matter what method is used, preventing rates from going up. This approach fits Warsh's current "talk of rate hikes" situation. It's just that the first time the rhetoric worked, but after the second FOMC meeting, it felt a bit ineffective. Dragging it out until "real GDP growth" naturally lowers the score of "(borrowing amount * borrowing cost) / (real GDP growth rate + CPI)." What could enable the "real GDP" to grow so quickly? When AI can shift from "losing blood" to "making up blood," This is essentially anchoring assets to debt, rather than providing funds for debt acquisition. That's about all the main storylines for now. Overall, both the main and side storylines have been exciting over the past two years. Let's take it one step at a time.#财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale Exercise! Next week's earnings season will be a complete slaughterhouse. Stop focusing on those already announced attractive numbers; the market has long since stopped buying them. The last wave of big tech revenue exceeded expectations, but Microsoft and Meta were left behind in the mudguard, and Apple was also hit hard. Now, capital can only recognize one word: can it keep racing forward in the future? Poor expectations are the real knife; whoever softens their guidance is just waiting to be drained. From August 3rd to 5th, Palantir, AMD, SpaceX, and Circle rushed to submit their papers. AI software, chips, rockets, satellites, and stablecoins all crowded together, maxing out volatility! Let's start with Palantir. This lousy stock has already been cut by 30% this year, with an outrageously high valuation, and new AI models are competing for its job. No matter how good the post-market numbers look, it's all for nothing. The key is whether the US government's orders can stabilize and whether the platform is truly monetizing on a large scale. On X, some KOLs bluntly said, "As usual, it will exceed expectations, this guy just can't be killed," while some analysts coldly observed, saying commercialization progress is the real killer move. If it's just a borderline crossing, it will be a direct blow to you after hours. AMD is even more naked. Data center revenue is the only answer; analysts are focusing on doubling growth. The company that has risen over 120% this year has recently been pulling back across the entire AI chip sector. Overestimating expectations can actually be dangerous. A certain semiconductor player on X has already declared: if Instinct GPUs and overall data center growth rates don't reach that insane level, the after-hours look might not look good. Stop pretending; the market's patience with chips has already run dry. SpaceX is even more exciting, submitting its first earnings report since going public, with Starlink users and AI infrastructure revenue closely watched. Revenue expectations surged sharply, but profits still inulated in losses. Well-known investors on X have already done the math: Starlink is printing money, while other sectors are burning cash. Even more frustrating, nearly 100 billion yuan in unlocking selling pressure poured in just two days after the financial report. No matter how beautiful the numbers are, this shadow is unavoidable. Some people directly complained that the universe concept has now become an AI concept under exam, with the IPO peak already halved—don't let emotions carry you away. The grand finale is Circle, where stablecoin issuers take the stage directly, with USDC circulation scale and reserve yields as the core. In the crypto world, Coinbase's revenue dropped, Robinhood's crypto revenue was halved, while Tether still made $1.5 billion in a single quarter. The Circle is the final piece of the puzzle. Some people on X have already shorted it in advance, while others are watching news of its renewal agreement with Coinbase, saying stablecoins are the real cash flow moat. If USDC's share continues to expand and interest income exceeds expectations, the entire crypto sector can get some relief; If it weakens, the short-term market could take another hit. Each of these four financial reports bets on its own: monetizing AI software, doubling data centers, whether satellites + AI can withstand the lock-up, and how big the stablecoin pie can grow. Traders, analysts, and investors on X are currently arguing fiercely; some are heavily positioned waiting for right-side opportunities, while others are warning to beware of expectations gap traps. Stop fantasizing about a one-sided surge; the flow of funds is the real signal. Don't be fooled by past numbers! The market is just this picky and rude right now.I just finished my run and came back, squatted on the toilet and glanced at my phone, and it made me laugh in frustration. I laughed at myself for acting like an idiot last month, setting an alarm at 3 a.m. to get up and watch the market, afraid of missing a big bullish candlestick. Looking back now, that bullish candle wasn't enough to buy me two Starbucks cups the next day. The knockoff coins in my wallet that I once cherished as treasures now look as dull as my grandfather's memorial photo. Honestly, losing money doesn't hurt me that much—after all, in this broken circle, who hasn't been a freeloader? I suddenly felt like slapping myself—how the hell did I believe those KOL's nonsense back then, like "this round is different," "the fundamentals are strong," "institutions are secretly accumulating funds"? Screw you. The worst part of this industry is that the more you treat a project as a faith, the more it can pin you down and rub you repeatedly. Last time, I met a guy who stubbornly stubbornly held onto a "decentralized storage" project, posting images in the group every day: "Whale address movement," "Weekly golden cross about to form," "Friends, hang in there, the light is ahead." I wanted to scold him at the time: Guangming, your sister, Guangming, is that what you call faith? You can't bear to face the miserable negative six figures in your account. Last month, the pools for that project were as thin as paper—a single 30,000 U could smash the price through it. The last message in the official group was posted by the administrator: recruiting part-time translators, monthly salary of 200U equivalent tokens. 200U。 It wasn't even enough for the wallet fee he paid when he bought that NFT back then. This shakeout is on a completely different scale from before. Back then, it was like a money printing machine rumbling, flooding mountains of gold, and any random bumpkin disk could fly into the sky. And now? The Fed's old Deng guys have tightly turned the tap, leaving only this little hot money in the market. Market makers are as shrewd as monkeys, only daring to repeatedly gather the few stocks with stories, hot money rolling in, and those that can enter and out. The rest? Secretly selling a little every day until you have no desire to cut your losses, until one day you suddenly slap your thigh: "Damn, I think I still have this coin," and when you click, the price is already just a fraction of the peak. I just checked today's noon on-chain capital flow, and the data is as ridiculous as a knife: ✅ The money is pushing in (buying is dominant): BTC • ETH • LINK • UNI • AAVE Just these five. Big Bing Er Bing needs no introduction—it's just the storefront. If it collapses, everyone will be doomed. LINK and UNI are among the few DeFi platforms that truly generate protocol revenue and are actually being used. AAVE's recent rise in lending rates indicates real demand is coming back to play. The rest? You can't even tell the northwest wind. ❌ Funds are quietly slipping away (selling pressure is tight): ARB • OP • SOL • MATIC • DOGE • SHIB • PEPE When this list was published, I felt heartbroken for some of the brothers. Which community didn't last year have their own "Ethereum killer," "Layer 2 leader," and "Dogecoin successor"? And now? Trading volume shrank to one-tenth of the peak, and each rebound grew weaker than the last, like a damn ship stranded at low tide—no matter how you pushed it, it couldn't return to the sea. A few days ago, SOL was still shouting "about to break out," but the breakout was pointless, and it fell back to the bottom of the box, lingering back there. 👀 I was still watching, but my hands in my pockets remained firmly still: PENDLE • FXS • CVX • RNDR Look at him, but he won't budge to the death. Trying to bottom fish at this position is ten thousand times more disgusting than landing halfway up the mountain. I can wait; I don't mind a few more days. A few big guys were picked out and cursed at each time: 👑 BTC — the anchor of the sea. If it ever can't hold out any longer, the whole arena will die together, nothing more to say 🏛️ ETH — Grayscale's institutions hold massive holdings, moving like an old bull pulling a broken cart, but do you dare to short it? Anyway, I wouldn't dare ⚡ SOL — Emotional amplifier: when it rises, it darts like a sky-high monkey; when it falls, it falls freely. Don't touch slow hands, and if you do, don't stay overnight 🤖 FET & AGIX — AI combines narratives, so stories can continue to be written, but if the market doesn't give them face, no matter how flashy the story is, it won't help 📉 AR — the thermometer for storing the popularity of the track. It lies on the ground pretending to be dead, indicating that big money has no intention of returning Every bull and bear cycle is like teaching the same lesson, and the tuition is ridiculously expensive: Don't fall in love with projects, don't treat white papers like Bible, and don't believe that "this time is really different." Those who can truly take money away from this dumb market never rely on mystical orders like "I feel like it's going to rebound" or "It should go up after dropping so much." They look at on-chain data, where money is flowing, and where liquidity is sitting on the side. Mobility is your real father. I only lost a Model 3 to truly ingrain this in my bones. I hope you don't learn until I get to this point to understand. It's the weekend, don't spark your phone so much you can't spark anything. Go out and bask in the sun, have a drink with friends, chat about the market and brag, and chat about things that have nothing to do with the price of the coin. The market was still open on Monday, but your hair and blood pressure might not be able to hold up. DYOR。 If you don't get DYOR, you're just waiting to be cut. That's all for now. #加密市场 #比特币 #以太坊 #山寨币 #链上数据 #流动性 #亏出来的经验 #周末愉快 Trump turned posting into a business: paying $100,000 a month to buy millisecond-level previews of presidential news Trump's Truth Social officially launched the "Truth API" high-speed messaging service, turning the president's posts into a paid business—$100,000 per month, with a three-year contract discounted to $60,000 per month, targeting high-frequency trading institutions on Wall Street. This is not an ordinary membership service; it's a real monetization of information gaps: - Core selling points: Paying users can access posts from Trump and 10 other core accounts at millisecond-level speed via API interfaces, tens to hundreds of milliseconds faster than regular users refreshing the page, enabling high-frequency trading systems to place orders in advance - Business value: Trump frequently uses the platform to release major news such as tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, central bank appointments, and stock commentary. A single post can trigger significant volatility in US stocks, crypto markets, BTC, exchange rates, crude oil, and gold. Previously, after he specifically praised Palantir and Intel, the stock prices of related companies surged more than 5% within minutes - Signing progress: According to Cailian Press, at least five leading high-frequency trading firms have signed contracts, and this business alone brings Trump Media Technology Group at least $6 million in stable annual revenue In recent years, the trading community has developed a set of "Trump trading methods": monitoring his social media accounts, triggering automated trading with keywords, and profiting from poor news fluctuations. In the past, everyone showed their skills—some wrote web crawlers, others waited for real-time push notifications, all about skill and speed; Now, the official market is directly selling the "high-speed channel," essentially turning the information gap into a standardized product, allowing you to get official certification at the fastest speed by paying money. What's even more interesting is the pre-existing "record": in March this year, 15 minutes before Trump announced the delay in striking Iran, crude oil futures saw $580 million in abnormal trading; four hours before last year's tariff policy reversal, he personally posted "this is a good time to buy," causing his media company's stock price to surge 22% in a single day. Now, the official launch of the Truth API with a monthly fee of $100,000 focuses on millisecond-level early access to core account content, which seems to put the previously gray area information gap business directly on the surface—this paid high-speed channel is a powerful tool for harvesting market gains in the US stock market and a precise arbitrage tool in the BTC crypto market. As president, every statement Trump makes about crypto regulation, the Bitcoin national reserve, stablecoin legislation, and spot ETF approval can push BTC up 3% within minutes— An 8% fluctuation. On the day he signed the crypto executive order in 2025, Bitcoin surged over 7% in a single day, surpassing $109,000—this is the most typical example. In the future, when trading US stocks and cryptocurrencies, you won't just have to watch the Fed, earnings, and industry data—you'll have to weigh your options and see if you have the money to buy a VIP membership for Dongwang. Honestly, I admire Trump's business acumen. While others are busy with political achievements as president, he is busy marking every word he speaks at a clear price. People used to joke, "Trump shook the market three times with one sentence," but now it's clear—this statement clearly sets the price. From now on, don't call it social media—just rename it 'Trump Quotes Paid Subscription Service.' For an annual fee of a million dollars, enjoy exclusive news from the president and access high-frequency trading channels. It's tough for us retail investors. We used to rely on quick updates to get soup, but now they're paying and cheating, so we can't even get hot soup. So the information gap in the global market ultimately leaves the money to Dongwang himself, right? So here's the question: since API permissions can be sold, will there be priority for targeted pushes, post announcements, or policy tipping in the future? Since the president's speech can be monetized, will policy-making in turn cater to the transaction demands of paying customers? $BTC #美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元 The most covert macro tactic recently has been the U.S. directing Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to intervene violently in the yen. On the surface, it's about rescuing the plummeting yen, but in reality, Wall Street is forcibly reshaping the rhythm of global liquidity, indirectly affecting all risk assets. This round of yen support operations has weakened the US dollar index in the short term, thereby easing the pressure of RMB depreciation and temporarily easing domestic stock and foreign exchange markets. But this is only a surface boost; real pressure lies behind the scenes. The massive global yen carry leverage has been the market's invisible lifeblood for many years. Once the yen stops falling and rebounds, carry funds will be concentrated to close out positions, and global liquidity will passively tighten. US stocks, tech growth, and the crypto market will all be squeezed out, and the volatility will only intensify. The most realistic point is that the double standards of American finance are fully exposed: only protecting allies' exchange rates, leaving emerging markets under pressure on their own. Global market trends are no longer just about technology or sentiment; they are entirely dictated by capital and macro policies. At this stage, market uncertainty is at its peak, with no sustained rally, only repeated fluctuations to harvest. During this period of macroeconomic chaos, frequent trading is just delivering profits to the market. Controlling your hands, lowering expectations, and being patient is the safest way to survive.The fundamentals of storage are still intact, so why are you losing money? July has passed, so let's review the storage market over the past three or four months: Have you made any money? Or did he once make brief profits, with a long list of unrealized gains in his account, but in the end, just because of the phrase "demand is tight until 2028," he forcibly returned all his earnings to the market? Many people have held storage-related stocks for over half a year, but very few have actually made this wave. This is not due to misjudgment, but rather because of "correct nonsense." The market is flooded with truthful information like "storage prices are still rising," "AI demand is still surging," and "HBM production capacity remains tight," but the truth does not necessarily mean the stock price will keep rising. The core of storage stock trading has never been "whether prices have risen," but rather whether the pace of price increases is accelerating. TrendForce data clearly shows this trend: traditional DRAM contract prices are expected to rise 90%-95% in Q1, 58%-63% in Q2, and only 13%-18% in Q3. The price increase slope has shifted from "riding a rocket" to "hitting the brakes." Stock prices are trading not about the "water level," but about the "speed at which the water level rises." As long as the price keeps rising but the price increases more slowly, the first to peak is often not product prices, but stock prices. The spot market is sending the same signal: mainstream DDR4 prices could rise 3.57% in a week in early June, shrink to 2.22% the following week, and then turn downward the week after that. Entering July, although some DDR4 products still saw price increases, transactions remained sluggish, buyers were reluctant to chase prices, offering firm quotes but weak orders. This is a typical sign of price hikes losing their marginal impact. Investors watch the news of "storage prices rising again" every day, but rarely think: Is this increase stronger than the market expected, or weaker? The capital market does not reward positive news that has already occurred, only positive news that exceeds expectations. The reason fundamentals are useful at the beginning of the year is that the market was still diverging at the time. You see HBM shortages, capacity migration, and contract price spikes earlier than others—that's information gap, and you deserve to make money. But by June and July, everyone was talking about the "storage supercycle," analysts frantically raised target prices, and the first pure storage ETF surpassed $1 billion in scale within ten days of launch, attracting $6 billion in five weeks. At this point, this is no longer just about information gaps, but the answer everyone in the market knows. When everyone knows the answer, the answer itself loses its value. At the end of June, Micron delivered record-breaking results, and Wall Street even declared, "A new era, the cycle is far from over." But by July, Micron had dropped nearly 30%, SanDisk nearly half, SK Hynix over 30%, and storage ETFs about 30%. Even if corporate profits grew more than fivefold year-on-year, the stock price still plummeted on the day of the financial report. Fundamentals did not suddenly die; what died was the market's continued room to raise expectations. Stocks are not pricing current profits, but pricing for the next surprise. When a company is required to deliver a perfect score every quarter, ninety-five points isn't excellent—it's a blowdown. The biggest lesson from this market is not to trust fundamentals, but not to treat them as a protective shield. Fundamentals determine whether a company is worth long-term existence; poor expectations determine whether you can make money in the short term after buying. You can look at the industry for three years, but you might lose half in three months. Because industry trends set the direction, and transaction crowding determines prices. My deepest insight into the storage industry is: rising prices don't mean stocks are rising, tight supply and demand doesn't mean expectations will tighten, and making money for companies doesn't mean those who buy it can still make money. When positive news shifts from a few's perception to a slogan for everyone, it ceases to be positive but becomes the last comfort for holders. What should truly be observed is not when storage prices will stop rising, but when the rate of increase will accelerate again, when transactions will surge again, and when profit expectations will be revised upward again. Until then, all the grand narratives of "tight until 2028" only prove the industry is good, not that you bought a good position. The harshest part of the market is that it never forgives you for buying at a short-term peak just because you believe in long-term truth. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU The market doesn't exhaust you—the constant chasing does." Think about it. Watching Bitcoin go up and down every day is mentally draining. If you've ever felt exhausted doing it, that's completely understandable. But what if you're focusing on the wrong kind of money? A good swing trader can capture around 1,000 points a day—that's roughly 30,000 points a month. Even if you don't hit those numbers consistently, 20,000 points is still a realistic target. Now compare that to simply holding. Bitcoin isn't guaranteed to fall 20,000 points in a month if you do nothing. So what kind of money are you really trying to make? You're trying to make swing trading money. The catch? Those profits don't come easy. To consistently capture them, you need exceptional skill, discipline, and risk management. Without them, the very price swings you're trying to profit from will end up taking you out of the market. #DailyOrbit 📊 $SOL Technical Snapshot 📍 Upper resistance: $74.25 – $75.25 Ideal zone to take profits on dip buys. Scale out in chunks if we tap here. 📉 Lower support: $67.85 – $66.55 Once $70 breaks, this is the key buy-the-dip pocket. It’s where the drop from $83.95 started and it’s held multiple times since July 4. Very clean level. 🧭 Context $SOL bounced to $83.95, then drifted down in a slow channel for ∼1 month. The $67 area has been tested repeatedly and keeps holding. That makes it high-convic U.S. Economic Overview | August 2, 2026 (Latest Market Analysis) Overall Characteristic: Resilience remains, growth is slowing, and inflation remains sticky. The Fed's policy is in a dilemma, and market competition is intensifying 1. Growth Data (GDP) • Q1 2026: Real GDP annualized growth rate +2.1% • Q2 2026: Real GDP annualized growth rate +1.5% (below expected 1.8%) The economy did not achieve a hard landing, but momentum declined; Clear structural differentiation: AI drives strong corporate investment, household consumption shows stratification, high-income groups support most spending, and low-income families continue to bear pressure. 2. Current Inflation Situation (Core Contradiction) Overall inflation has declined, but core inflation stubbornly remains above the 2% target: • Overall CPI was about 2.9% year-on-year, core CPI about 3.1% year-on-year; Housing and service prices remain high, and energy and geopolitical factors pose rebound risks at any time • PCE (Federal Reserve Preference Indicator) is also still far from the 2% target Conclusion: Inflation has not been completely defeated, and the market's original bet on a "rapid rate cut" has fallen through. 3. Employment Market Employment is starting to weaken, no longer an overheated market: • Nonfarm payrolls in June added only 57,000, significantly below the high growth of previous years; the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%~4.3% • ADP private employment data continued to fall short of expectations, with companies' willingness to hire cooling; The market is awaiting the July nonfarm payroll (to be released this Friday) to guide the Fed's direction The labor market has shifted from "hot" to mild cooling, but it hasn't yet reached a recessional crash. 4. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (July Interest Rate Meeting) July 30 resolution: Benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. 1. Three members opposed the meeting, advocating continued rate hikes, leading to intense internal divisions (rising hawks) 2. Official statement: The door to rate hikes will not be closed; if inflation rebounds, rates can continue; The probability of rate cuts within the year has basically disappeared 3. Market Pricing Shift: The probability of a rate hike in September has increased, with rate cut expectations postponed to 2027 5. Financial Markets (August 2 Market Background, Related to Crypto/US Stocks) 1. US Treasuries: Long-term US Treasury yields fluctuate at high levels, while high interest rates continue to suppress long-term assets (risk assets like tech stocks, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are under pressure). 2. US Dollar Index: Remains slightly volatile; If U.S. data exceeds expectations and is stronger, a stronger dollar will weigh on cryptocurrency prices 3. US Stocks: AI sector is differentiated, with high-valuation assets highly sensitive to interest rates; Market volatility rose following the Fed's hawkish statements 6. Future Trading Logic (Impact on Your ETH Contract) 1. If inflation/employment continue to strength→ the Fed becomes more hawkish, the dollar and Treasury yields rise→ bearish for risk assets like ETH and BTC 2. If employment weakens sharply and inflation falls → rate cut expectations reverse→ it would be favorable for a crypto market rebound 3. Key events for the coming week: July nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and PMI will directly drive sharp volatility in the crypto market (high-leverage contracts carry huge risks) A brief summary The US economy is in a stagflation-like environment of "weak resilience + stubborn inflation." Without short-term easing, risk assets find it difficult to break out of a one-sided bull market. The market is mainly volatile, with leveraged trading allowing #30-year US Treasury yields to hit a 19-year high #美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元 🪝 After talking for a long time about the BTCFi track, I also broke down the entire CORE technology flywheel, non-custodial staking, AMP asset management, and long-term logic of the bit grid. But today, we must present the most realistic underlying rule that many people deliberately ignore: no matter how good the narrative of any public chain or track is, it is almost impossible to break free from the crypto market environment and emerge from an independent bull market. Many investors fall into a misconception: if a project has excellent technology, a clear roadmap, and a continuously established ecosystem, it will definitely keep rising. So they heavily invested and waited, ignoring the overall market trends of BTC and ETH. When the market pulled back, they were left confused: with positive news constantly coming in, why did the price remain under pressure? 1. The underlying capital structure of the crypto market determines its highly interconnected attributes. The entire crypto market capital flow follows a fixed sequence: incremental funds prioritize buying $BTC → $ETH → leading mainstream sectors → niche sector targets. When funds withdraw, the order completely reverses: niche concepts first sell, then spread to mainstream coins. Even in long-term rigid demand sectors like BTCFi, the source of funds still comes from the overall risk appetite of the crypto market. 1. When the market is in a state of stock competition and depleted incremental funds: no matter how good the narrative, it can only achieve a short-term pulse rebound and is difficult to sustain a main upward wave; 2. When the market experiences systemic panic selling: The vast majority of coins passively follow the downside, and fundamental advantages can only reduce the pullback and cannot completely avoid the decline. Historical cycles repeatedly verify: Very few targets can be at B BTC discussions generally hover around the long window moving average, with a slight bearish bias: what can be confirmed after 47 mentions Putting BTC's short-window numbers together with the full-day average makes the picture much more complete than just looking at the popular rankings. OKX Onchain OS recorded 47 mentions of BTC in one hour at 17:00 on August 2nd (China time), including 30 times on X and 17 times in news; The total 24-hour volume was 1,094 times. After conversion, the latest hour is 1.03 times the hourly average for Long Window, which is nearly the 24-hour average. This ratio only answers whether discussions have heated up, not whether buying has increased. If you write it directly as a breakout signal, you take an extra step and make an inference that the data does not support. The structure of tone is another line. 13% are slightly bullish within one hour, 32% bearish, and about 55% neutral, indicating a 'slightly bearish advantage'; Within the 24-hour period, the trend is 26% bullish and 35% bearish. The gap between the short and long windows is the part worth tracking going forward. In terms of sources, BTC is currently mainly sourced from X, supplemented by news. When a message is widely shared, mentions quickly increase, but independent information may not necessarily increase year-on-year. The trending list cannot tell us whether each piece of text comes from different participants, nor does it weigh by account influence or fund size. Long window sources can be used as background: BTC has had 970 times in 24 hours, and 124 news events. If the proportion of sources in one hour suddenly deviates sharply, it could mean new news first broke out on a certain channel, or news updates just haven't caught up yet. Both explanations are reasonable, so we still need to wait for the original announcement or the next round of source distribution confirmation. I would treat Bullish and Bearish as thermometers under the same ruler, not as exact voting. There is a lot of neutral content, usually just everyone watching and not yet forming a unified direction; An increase in bearish bias may also mean more risk discussions, but it doesn't mean every poster has truly established a short position. The next step to observe is whether spot trading volume expands, whether perpetual contract funding rates and open interest are moving in the same direction, and whether liquidations are concentrated. These three sets of data answer real trading participation and leverage structure, and cannot be replaced by community mentions. If there are macro or industry events, the official original text should be directly verified. How did I know I was mistaken this time? If the next round of BTC mentions returns to near the average and the gap between bullish and bearish will narrow, this change will likely be just short-term noise. Conversely, two consecutive rounds of increased speed, expanded news sources, and simultaneous increases in spot and derivatives transactions are more like the main market theme is taking shape. You also need to keep the intraday difference. The community activity levels differ naturally between early Asian trading, US trading hours, and near major announcements; A single 1.03x is not suitable for annualization, nor should it be used to directly compare with raw counts from other platforms. Continuous snapshots are more useful than a single beautiful number. So I first recorded BTC as "discussions roughly close to the long-window average, with a bearish tone slightly favoring the short-window approach." The official rankings stop here, with no proof that funds are betting in the same direction. If the next round also improves both the diversity of sources and market transactions, it won't be too late to raise confidence in judgment.#亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元: Bet or bubble Amazon's $50 billion investment in OpenAI can be described as both a bet and a clear bubble character. This deal is more like a heavy bet made amid "bubble" suspicions in the fight for control of infrastructure in the AI era. 🎯 Core logic: strategic bets rather than financial investments This amount far exceeds ordinary venture capital; essentially, it's Amazon's defensive offensive strategy: · Binding with top customers: After clearing Microsoft's exclusivity agreements, AWS became OpenAI's third-party cloud service provider. Ensure that massive computing power orders do not fall into Microsoft's Azure pocket. · Promoting self-developed chips: Taking the opportunity to promote its self-developed Trainium chip to OpenAI, challenging Nvidia's monopoly. Currently, both OpenAI and Anthropic have committed to using it. · Strengthening platform position: AWS's Bedrock platform has integrated OpenAI models, creating a "model supermarket." 📊 "Bubble" suspicion: unprotected premium The "bubble" suspicion is not baseless; the key point is that Amazon paid the remaining $35 billion in full in advance before meeting the two major trigger conditions: · Extremely high valuation: Based on a 5% stake, OpenAI's valuation has soared to $852 billion. · Sustained losses: Paying in full during OpenAI's massive losses shows that compared to a valuation bubble, Amazon fears losing its ticket to the AI race. · Left-right betting: At the same time, committing $33 billion ($18 billion already in place) to OpenAI's rival Anthropic—a typical risk diversification strategy. 💎 Summary This deal sets a new investment record in the AI sector. It includes both rational "bets" based on cloud computing and chip strategies, as well as the "bubble" color of accepting high valuations to lock in key resources amid fierce competition. Ultimately, this is Amazon paying real money to buy a "ticket to the future AI world."I actually think BEAT's pullback today is more worth watching than the surge. Yesterday, many people were discussing BEAT surging to $6. Today, everyone started discussing why it dropped. But I think most people have missed the point. What truly affects BEAT isn't today's 7% or 10% drop, but whether the market can absorb the new shares. On August 1st, BEAT underwent a large-scale unlock. Over 21 million tokens were released at once, accounting for about 6.9% of the circulating supply. Many people, upon seeing the word "unlock," instinctively think the price is about to crash. But what the market truly trades is never the unlocking itself. Instead: After unlocking it, how many people will actually sell it? Today's market was actually quite interesting. It surged to a high of 6.18, then quickly fell back to around $4. If it's simply that no one is buying it, the price usually keeps dropping. But now, the turnover still exceeds $300 million. What does this mean? This indicates that at this position, both bulls and bears are trading hands frantically. Some cashed in profits. Others think this is the spot where you can get back on the bus. At this point, I wouldn't be bearish just because of a single bearish candle. Nor do they assume that just because the previous price has risen quickly, they can definitely double the price. What I'm more concerned about is the next two or three days. If after unlocking the price, the price remains stable and trading volume gradually shrinks, it indicates the market has already absorbed the new shares. But if trading volume continues to expand, prices keep hitting new lows. That means the real selling pressure may have only just begun. Many people enjoy trading news. I prefer trading news after what the money really does. The news can only affect one day. Funds determine the trend. $BEAT Americans are running, and the price is rising! Something is wrong BTC rebounded from 58,000 to 64,000 in July, looking quite strong, with a 15% rebound But there's one data point I've been watching for two months—Coinbase Premium, which has been negative for 60 consecutive days. Record-breaking What does this mean? Those American institutions are making big money selling BTC on Coinbase for less than the global average, but they just won't buy. In July, ETFs reported net inflows, but the total annual net outflow was still over 5 billion yuan To put it bluntly, this rebound was driven by offshore funds, and Americans didn't get on board My judgment: The rebound is real, but the foundation is unstable. If Premium doesn't turn positive, big money won't come back—this market is fragile I don't chase after the operation. Those with positions hold onto them, those without positions wait I'll come back once Premium becomes full-time The total prize pool for Grass. is only about 3 million USDC, covering nearly 20 months of contributions from October 2024 to June 2026 (Epochs 1-19). User posts have become a major complaint scene: 599 days online, accumulating about 2.82 million points→ $5.73 USDC After two years of running, the node → $10 495 days → $80 (which is still decent) Why such a big gap? Starting October 2025, Grass will split points into two categories: Uptime Points: Only reflects online time, conversion rate is just $0.00000007 per point (almost zero) Network Points: Accumulate only when bandwidth is used by real traffic, with a conversion rate of $0.0049 per minute The result: about 150,000 high-traffic users captured roughly 90% of total network traffic and rewards, leaving ordinary idle users with only a breathing experience. Contrast Comparison: Phase 1: 100 million GRASS tokens distributed to 2.8 million people, each worth about $70 each Second phase expected: 170 million GRASS (total supply 17%, 70% higher than the first phase)→ resulting in 3 million USDC, most of which is taken by a few Community reaction: "uninstall Grass" became a high-frequency term in the comment section, with many people posting uninstallation tutorials directly. $GRASS Fundamental Research Report $COMP / Compound (DeFi) $3.20 First, the conclusion: Compound ($COMP) has an overall score of 51/100, with a rating that narrative is more important than implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented. Let's look at projects first: Compound (token $COMP), DeFi sector. Specializes in established lending agreements. Competes with AAVE and MKR. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days. At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment. On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Let's look together with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): Regarding circulating market cap, Compound $3.00B, AAVE undisclosed, MKR undisclosed. For FDV, Compound $4.20B, AAVE undisclosed, MKR undisclosed. For annualized revenue, Compound $2.00M, AAVE undisclosed, MKR undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Compound has not disclosed, AAVE has not disclosed, MKR has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In summary: Solid fundamentals (rating 51/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Potential pitfalls: short-term large-scale unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Next, focus on these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, and GitHub version release. Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations exceeding 30% require reassessment. That's all for the fundamentals; leave the rest to the market. #基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 The 30-year Treasury yield continued to rise following the Federal Reserve's July 29 decision, reaching as high as 5.27%, the highest since 2007. The FOMC's three votes to raise interest rates, domestic demand hitting a two-year high in Q2, and oil prices rising about 20% in a single month have all driven up inflation expectations, raising market pricing for a rate hike in September. On the other hand, June PCE just recorded its first negative month-on-month turnaround since 2020, with cooling inflation and long-term highs alongside the bond market, which is more likely to support oil prices and domestic demand. After the long-term end breaks through the 19-year range, whether the 5.3% is the top or a new starting point will determine the valuation anchor for risk assets in August. The stock prices of several giants have followed completely different curves. Meta's stock price fell as much as 8% after hours due to a less optimistic quarterly revenue forecast and a drop in free cash flow to its lowest point in years. Behind this is the heavy spending on AI, which has made investors anxious. On the other hand, Microsoft and Amazon reaped rewards thanks to their "restraint," with Microsoft's cloud business growing to a four-year high and hinting at controlling new capital expenditures this year. Their stock prices jumped nearly 16%, with market value soaring by $450 billion in a single day; Amazon is similar; its impressive cloud business report card has made people somewhat more concerned about the returns on AI investment. $MSFT This kind of differentiation basically means the market now doesn't just look at how much you invest in AI, but also on how you spend it and whether you can see tangible returns. In the words of Explosive Options analyst Bob Long, investors will sooner or later grow tired of the endless "arms race." Therefore, when a company starts signaling "controlling spending," it actually becomes a positive sign. $SNDK This might be a turning point. The old logic of "whoever shouts about AI louder gets a high valuation" is no longer working anymore. Next, the market may start to "punish" companies that only spend money recklessly and fail to tell profit stories, while rewarding those who can balance AI investment with commercial returns. Companies in the global AI supply chain have regained favor, following this logic, with people paying more attention to the practical implementation stages. It is foreseeable, A $BTC Last night I made another surprise attack. My long position was almost knocked off. Honestly, I watched the market until 3 a.m., and my child woke up twice. My heart was more thrilling than a roller coaster. $BTC Current price is 63,153, with a 24-hour change of only +0.12%. It looks calm, but with a 24-hour high of 63,639 and a low of 62,268, a fluctuation of over 1,300 points, which contract holder can withstand that? I opened my long position at 60,860, with 5x leverage, 751U margin, and now an unrealized profit of 141.49U, yield +18.84%. But I don't dare show off at all. In this market, making money is like picking up money, losing money is like drinking water. 📊 Shrinking Volume, Market Holding Back Big Moves Let's look at the most eye-catching part: 24-hour trading volume was only 157.21M USDT, down 45.22% from the previous 24-hour period. What does a near-halved reduction mean? Both the bulls and bears are holding their ground, waiting for direction. At such times, any high-volume bullish or bearish candlestick on the candlestick could directly trigger a trending rally. The real danger is not now, but the moment everyone relaxes. The moving average system is also in conflict. MA7 is 63321, MA30 is 63073, and the price is 63153, which is right in between. Standing below the MA7 indicates short-term bearishness, but above the MA30 indicates medium-term support. To put it bluntly, it's a dilemma—no one has an absolute advantage. 90%Whether the Genius Act will pass before August 7, Strategy's $5 billion Bitcoin sale plan, and the Federal Reserve's expected rate hikes at the next FOMC meeting on September 17—all these negative factors have emerged. So why are so many institutions still ramping up their BTC holdings at this time? Do you know what the reason is? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section, and I'll also share some of my insights and operational ideas at the end. Bipartisan senators have submitted a new ethical compromise for the Clarity Act to the White House According to The Block, Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego have submitted a new ethical compromise proposal called the Clarity Act to the White House, aiming to break the legislative deadlock. The bill is less than a week after the Senate adjournment on August 7 and has yet to receive 60 votes in favor. Democrats are calling for provisions to restrict the Trump family's crypto interests, and some Republican lawmakers have objected to the stablecoin interest clause. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blamed the Democratic Party. The Crypto Innovation Committee (CCI) warns that if the bill fails, the U.S. will lose its global leadership in crypto regulation. U.S. President Trump has confirmed the Clarity Act as a priority U.S. President Trump confirmed the Clarity Act as a priority at a White House press conference, while Treasury Secretary Besent stated that the U.S. will maintain its global leadership in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. MicroStrategy may sell Bitcoin worth up to $5 billion under its current capital program On August 2, it was reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) may sell Bitcoin worth up to $5 billion under its current capital management plan. This is four times higher than the amount they initially indicated might be sold under the new capital management plan. CEO Phong Le stated in the relevant explanation that if the sale proceeds, the proceeds will mainly be used for three main purposes: first, an increase of approximately $1.25 billion in USD in USD cash reserves to strengthen financial buffers; second, covering the company's annual dividend and interest obligations of approximately USD 1.76 billion to ensure stable payments of preferred stock dividends and debt costs; third, funding up to USD 2 billion in share repurchase plans to optimize shareholder returns and potentially support stock price performance. Notably, $5 billion is only the clear upper limit under the current capital plan. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor hinted that if business needs or market conditions change in the future, the actual total sale amount may still be further raised. The Michigan retirement fund increased its Bitcoin holdings to $7.5 million and also increased its stock in Strategy (MicroStrategy), a 141% rise, bringing its total holdings to 14,000 shares with a market value of about $1.34 million. It manages the Michigan retirement fund with a scale of about $122 billion. Coinbase increased its holdings by 819 Bitcoins in Q2 2026, bringing its total holdings to 17,311 coins, making it the ninth largest Bitcoin holding company entity. Tether released its Q2 audit report, disclosing that it increased its holdings by 1,800 Bitcoins worth $113 million. Its current total holdings have reached 98,936 Bitcoins, valued at $6.23 billion, while its gold holdings have risen to $18.84 billion. Here are some of my insights and operational approaches: Let's use recent events as a breakthrough and entry point. The Genius Act must be passed before August 7. If it fails, it might be postponed until September. There are only two outcomes: either pass or fail. Given the current tight schedule and significant disagreements, we can revise and negotiate after a few rounds of adjustment. Therefore, my view is that it cannot be passed before August 7. Soon after, the September rate hike expectation will arrive, adding another blow to the negative news. WeStrategy will also sell a small portion of BTC during this period, falling into a death spiral. The Bitcoin market will continue to accelerate downward and will likely break previous lows, touching around $BTC50000 and moving around $2,000. This is the first case of failure. The second scenario is that the Genius Act was passed on August 7th. There will be a rapid rally in the short term, and BTC might reach around $78,000, up or down $1,000, then pull back. The reason for the pullback is still the previous one. MicroStrategy plans to sell BTC, which is an unchangeable fact because it urgently needs cash to solve the three issues he mentioned about the company. After Bitcoin rises, he may sell more, plus institutions bought BTC at low prices. After the price rises, they will sell some in batches, creating significant selling pressure and causing panic. BTC will pull back, because they all know the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in September. This is a major negative news and the best opportunity for price pressure. Plus, when they sell off, the market panics. At this point, they buy at low levels, reclaiming what they sold at highs, or even absorbing more of the selling pressure. If BTC rises first and then falls, the price correction may not be very deep, at most slightly breaking the previous low. The price will generally consolidate around 62,000 for a while, and the time cycle will basically reach late October to mid-November, at which point Bitcoin will gradually return to a bull market. These are some of my insights and trading strategies. Thank you all for watching and leaving comments.After losing in the market for a long time, you realize that slow is fast. 🔥 The more you grind in the market, the more you realize that making money is never about seeing things accurately, but about controlling your emotions and hands. ☕ In the past, you would stay up late checking news and watch intraday trends, afraid of missing any rally, only to open positions frequently and accumulate small losses into big ones; 🍵 Now, you've learned to slack off and observe, and in unclear market swings, you simply short positions and rest. Only after stumbling down do you truly understand the saying. 🍍 The most direct observation now: the market has long since moved beyond the broad-based rally; funds will only cluster into core assets with performance and logical grounds. 🔅 US AI giants keep attracting funds through earnings reports, with leading crypto coins showing strong resilience, while the vast majority of altcoins and niche small stocks are ignored. 🌀 $MU $SKHYNIX $NVDA $SAMSUNG $SNDK In a stock-based competitive environment, "cheap" is no longer a reason to buy; where capital flows is where the opportunity lies. Buying unpopular bottoms against the trend usually means standing firm deeply. 🌧️ Human nature is always the biggest hurdle 🫧 in trading. When losing money, you refuse to bear losses and don't cut losses; when you break even, you rush to sell and lose your profits; 📈 When prices rise, you chase highs with envy; when prices drop, you panic and cut losses—a cycle of repeated losses. ♟️ A single deep position can erase gains from more than a dozen small gains, but later a strict rule was set: if a single loss exceeds 7%, exit unconditionally; never hold onto the hope of a rebound. Hold onto your principal to stay in the market long-term. 🧠 News is always just an auxiliary and cannot be used as a basis for trading. Associated Press Multiple intertwined risks: market games arising from SpaceX's unlock, non-farm payroll data, and AMD earnings reports resonating together Currently, the capital market is experiencing a period of concentrated key events. Three core variables—SpaceX stock unlock, U.S. nonfarm payroll data, and AMD's earnings report—are simultaneously influencing the pricing of various risk assets such as tech stocks and crypto assets. The interplay of multiple bullish and bearish factors has led to increased market volatility and intensified short-term competition. Investors need to clarify the core logic of each event, distinguish between short-term emotional disturbances and medium- to long-term fundamental trends, and rationally judge market trends. The unlocking of SpaceX shares is a recent key stock-level event that the market has been closely watching. The market generally views the unlocking as negative, mainly because early investors and employee stock ownership can freely trade, creating potential selling pressure for cashing out and exiting. However, unlocking does not equate to concentrated selling; its actual impact depends on three key factors: shareholders, valuation position, and company fundamentals. If most unlocked tokens are held by long-term strategic institutions, with strong long-term allocation willingness, short-term selling pressure is relatively limited; If chips are concentrated in early-stage financial investment institutions, the demand for these funds to realize profits is higher, and short-term selling pressure will increase significantly. At the same time, valuation levels directly affect holders' operations. After a sharp rise in the previous period, investors accumulate substantial profits, making the lock-up release highly likely to trigger a concentrated capital flight; After the stock price is fully adjusted and valuations return to reasonable levels, selling momentum will weaken significantly. Ultimately, company fundamentals are the core of hedging against negative unlocking events. The continued realization of Starlink's business growth and rocket launch expansion are the core supports for SpaceX's valuation. As long as operating data steadily improves, long-term funds will proactively take on unlocked shares to hedge against market selling pressure. Investors do not need to be influenced by a single negative opinion; focus on tracking trading volume and chip support after unlocking to avoid the misconception of blindly predicting price rises or falls. Compared to stock unlocks, nonfarm payroll data is the top-level macro variable that dominates market liquidity expectations and directly influences the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Fed's policy core anchors on inflation and employment, while nonfarm payroll data is the primary basis for assessing the U.S. job market and determines expectations for rate hikes or cuts. If the nonfarm payroll data significantly exceeds expectations, it means the U.S. job market remains resilient, economic downward pressure is weak, and the risk of an inflation rebound intensifies. Against this backdrop, expectations for Fed rate cuts will cool down rapidly, and may even restart discussions about rate hikes, which in turn pushes US Treasury yields and the US dollar index higher. Liquidity tightening expectations will comprehensively suppress high-growth tech stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other high-risk assets. Conversely, if nonfarm payroll data falls short of expectations, it signals a gradually cooling job market and a weak economy, which will strengthen the consensus on rate cuts. Rising expectations for loose liquidity will push U.S. Treasury yields down, opening up valuation recovery space for growth assets. Currently, the market is deeply divided in macro conditions, inflation data fluctuates repeatedly, and combined with Fed officials' hawkish stance, the monetary policy path is full of uncertainty. The final outcome of nonfarm payroll data will be key to anchoring macro liquidity in the short term, influencing asset pricing across the entire market from top to bottom. AMD's earnings report is the core industry signal determining the short-term prosperity of the AI semiconductor sector. As a global core AI computing company, AMD's performance not only affects its own stock price but also impacts the entire AI chip and memory semiconductor industry chain, with memory companies like Micron and SanDisk experiencing a clear emotional impact. The market's analysis of the earnings report focuses on three main dimensions: data center chip revenue growth, AI business orders and quarterly performance guidance, and overall gross margin level. Among them, the AI business revenue growth rate directly reflects the company's core competitiveness in the computing power sector, while the next quarter's performance guidance directly determines institutions' judgment of short-term demand in the AI industry, influencing the direction of sector valuation adjustments. If AMD's earnings report revenue, profit, and forward-looking guidance fully exceed expectations, it will greatly boost market confidence in AI hardware demand and drive the collective strength of the computing power and storage industry chains. However, caution is needed regarding the "buy expectations, sell facts" trend. If stock prices have already exhausted positive factors in advance, even if the financial report meets the target, a pullback may occur after the positive news is realized. If the earnings report falls short of expectations, it will directly trigger a collective correction in the AI technology sector, intensifying internal sector fragmentation. Currently, disagreements in the AI sector persist, with significant market debate over cloud providers' capital expenditures and AI computing power demand. The signals from AMD's earnings report will be key to balancing the divergence between bulls and bears and guiding the sector's short-term trend. The three core events do not operate independently; they resonate and balance each other, shaping the current overall market trend. Macro liquidity, industry prosperity, and changes in individual stock chips form a clear prioritization logic: macro expectations determine the overall market direction, industry fundamentals determine the medium- to long-term trend of the track, and chip fluctuations in news only bring short-term sentiment impact. Different event combinations can trigger completely different market conditions: strong nonfarm payrolls bring negative liquidity and offset AMD's better-than-expected earnings reports; The weakening nonfarm payrolls combined with better-than-expected earnings and multiple positive factors resonating will drive a rebound in technology assets; The strong non-farm market performance combined with financial reports being disappointed and the resonance of double negative factors will trigger a significant market correction. Most investors fall into the trap of trading with a single message, overlooking the checks and balances of multiple logics, which easily leads to misjudgments. During the period of intense event window, market uncertainty surges, volatility continues to rise, and trading difficulty increases significantly. Ordinary investors should avoid heavily betting on a single outcome. Before news is released, market bulls and bears are fiercely contested, mainly fluctuating markets. Trend trends only begin after news is confirmed and logic becomes clear. At the same time, we must learn to separate ourselves from short-term emotional fluctuations. Unlocking sell-offs and intraday sharp rises and falls triggered by data are all short-term market disturbances that cannot change the long-term development logic of the AI industry and technology sector. Going forward, focus on three key signals: first, after the release of nonfarm payroll data, the real-time movements of U.S. Treasury yields and the US dollar index confirm macro liquidity expectations; Second, after AMD's earnings release, institutions adjusted their expectations for demand in the AI industry chain; Third, changes in trading volume after SpaceX's unlock, to assess market selling pressure and the strength of bullish support. Market risk always stems from expectations gaps. The market has already priced in some event expectations in advance, and if the final outcome deviates from mainstream expectations, it is highly likely to trigger a sharp rally. In a phase of intertwined uncertainties, waiting and following the trend is far more prudent than betting on direction in advance. $SPCX $AMD $SNDK #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is imminent #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 Comparing weekly market trends together, the sense of disconnection is maxed out. The Nasdaq is driven by tech giants, #SPCX首份财报将公布 with $100 billion locked in locks imminent, showing a beautiful three-week winning streak #EarningsObserver: Next Thursday's lottery will be announced, Circle will be the finale, the focus keeps rising, and the bullish trend is solid; The entire cryptocurrency market has been fluctuating sideways in place all week, with no clear direction for gains or losses. In the Fed's high interest rate environment, funds are flowing first into the U.S. equity market supported by earnings, while the crypto sector lacks liquidity support. The two asset trends are completely disconnected, making it difficult to synchronize again in the short term.📊 Tech giants' stock prices show a stark contrast after earnings, indicating the market is starting to "punish" AI companies that spend recklessly. Meta Multi-Billion Wipeout: Meta's shares plunged as much as 8% after hours following a disappointing revenue forecast and recording its lowest free cash flow in years, showing investors are souring on soaring, unmonetized AI expenses. Microsoft Massive Breakthrough: Microsoft’s stock surged near 16%, adding a historic $450 billion in a single day, driven by its fastest cloud business growth in four years and management's explicit promise to control capital expenditures. Amazon Capital Relief: Amazon jumped 15% after logging an optimistic cloud revenue expansion that hit a four-year high, significantly easing Wall Street's structural concerns regarding the long-term returns on its massive AI infrastructure bets.His heartbeat was pushed to fifty beats per minute, and the stitched gloves on his right hand were soaked with dew. My breath frosts beneath the mask—though it's August, the nights on the battlefield can freeze bones and crisp. Within the crosshair of the scope, four targets from earnings week are slowly taking shape in the aperture of August: Palantir looks down after dusk on August 3, AMD and SpaceX appear side by side on August 4, and Circle appears at the edge of the crosshair before dawn on August 5. Four lifelines, four ranges, each shot had to be individually measured for wind and adjusted for the position of the secret position. In the previous round, tech giants collectively hit the revenue target, but the results quickly split into four colors. Microsoft's market value surged 15.5% in a single day, breaking the historical single-day earnings record—a bullet struck right in the throat; Amazon jumped over 9%, barely breaking through the lungs; Meta fell headfirst into a -9% shell crater, like an unlucky scout whose helmet was knocked off by a bouncing bullet; Apples lie in -4% mud, only scratching the handguard. The same guns, the same golden ammo—why did the endings diverge? There is only one difference in the observation log—the guidance for next quarter's earnings. Guidance is a preliminary reconnaissance of obstacles ahead; if the reconnaissance is wrong, bullets become useless copper shells. The bullet marks in the crypto war zone are even more shocking. Coinbase's sniper scope shattered halfway, falling 18.5%; Robinhood's crypto business is like an armored vehicle with its tracks pierced by armor-piercing rounds, plummeting 40%; Tether, however, pulled $1.5 billion in profits from the battlefield's corpse bags. On the same scorched earth, some people's faces were covered in ash, some had swollen belts. Meanwhile, my observer had just reported that the outpost codenamed XIWM was moving in sync — the US stock token target, sharing the same set of pressure data as the crypto battlefield. Once it becomes breathless, old bullet holes like Coinbase and Robinhood will be torn apart. In the upcoming round, Circle is the hardest target to determine. Stablecoin issuers are exposed to the interplay of regulation and interest rates, and can only be identified frame by frame with high magnification. The market winds are already chaotic—Bitcoin has just broken through the rusty iron chain of a five-month downtrend, and with every point the Nasdaq moves, the initial velocity of the bullet changes. The weather vane wavered, and even the most experienced observers dared not give precise wind speeds. In my trajectory calculator, all input parameters kept ticking. Acting rashly at this moment would only send me into the enemy's scope. My crosshair still held my breath steadily, but the safety was locked. Palantir's AI armor is too thick, and its next season guide hasn't even revealed its neck yet; AMD and SpaceX have too long ranges, and their trajectory curves hide too many variables; The wind at Circle's position was too chaotic, and the exposed angles were full of traps. The perfect profit-loss ratio wasn't rushed; it was earned by lying in the grass for three days and nights, with sweat and mud. Without a chance to kill in one blow, the barrel shouldn't have let even a trace of fire escape. Those who rushed to pull the trigger ended up becoming others' battle reports. Four financial reports, four gunshots. All I care about is whose body is lying next to the next shell casing after that last shout, which can earn ten times the reward. Before that, my gun was cold, my fingers were zero millimeters from the trigger, but my safety—always, forever locked. #EarningsWeekAhead #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history At the beginning of the year, everyone was praising the storage trio as awesome, but in July, they were slapped right away. $MU, $SKHY, $SMSN, shortages, price hikes, HBM—the toughest narrative of AI is all here. And what happened? $MU retraced 29% from its high, $SKHY dropped 35%, and $SMSN couldn't hold on, pulling back 21%. The strangest part was that all three families were stuck here, grinding sideways. On the contrary, I think this is the last dignity of storage. If it can hold steady, it means it's just washing away the foam and levers. If you can't stay steady, then don't tell the spring story. It's not a correction, it's just heading straight into winter—those who understand understand......Google's AI data center deal It's not just AI news It is also related to BTC On the surface, Google is endorsing financing for Anthropic's related data centers Banks discussed lending $15 billion Google provides guarantees In exchange for about 20% equity But the real signal is The scarce thing of the future Not a model It's electricity Chips Computing power Data centers AI needs electricity BTC mining also requires electricity One is to train the model One is to maintain the network and mining revenue The last one I grabbed All are low-cost energy sources and stable power resources Google is not simply investing in AI now It is about preemptively locking in the future computing power entry point This is about making long-term power contracts with BTC miners Essentially, it's the same thing Whoever gets the cheap electricity first Whoever can survive longer in the next cycle Today, there is no fear of fluctuations in AI stocks and BTC What's even more likely is that you might think the market is just hyping up stories The real main battleground Prices have already been shown on screen It became a power plant Data centers and balance sheets The above is just market observation This does not constitute investment advice Investing carries risks; enter with caution 🇬🇧 The market sent a very interesting message over the last two days. First, tensions in the Middle East escalated and reports emerged about the U.S. embassy evacuation. Bitcoin barely reacted. Then Trump announced a de-escalation and called off the planned strikes. Again... almost no reaction from $BTC That tells me one thing. Crypto is becoming far less sensitive to geopolitical headlines. The old narrative of "war = buy Bitcoin" isn't driving the market like it used to. Right now, the real catalyst is dollar liquidity. That's where capital is paying attention. Personally, I wouldn't build a trading thesis around geopolitical news alone. Liquidity—not headlines—is leading this market. Breaking Microsoft's monopoly! A sky-high investment tears open the biggest uncertainty in the AI track #Amazon invests $50 billion in OpenAI: Bet or bubble Market polarization has already torn apart: optimists are loudly claiming Amazon has secured the core ticket for the AI era; Pessimists directly judged this as the iconic gamble at the peak of Silicon Valley's AI bubble. The vast majority only see the massive $50 billion investment, overlooking that this deal is not just a financial investment, but a complex chess game intertwined with computing power, cloud services, and giants. To distinguish between long-term planning and capital bubble celebrations, one must look through surface-level information. 1. First, clarify the underlying facts of the incident Amazon officially completed a full $50 billion investment in OpenAI, acquiring about 5% equity, corresponding to OpenAI's post-investment valuation of $852 billion. Originally, the additional funds required meeting two major conditions: an IPO or a major technological breakthrough, but now that these conditions have not been met, Amazon still fully invests. Core pre-catalytic factors: OpenAI and Microsoft have revised their cloud cooperation agreement, breaking Azure's monopoly on computing power, and AWS has officially obtained the qualification to provide computing power services to OpenAI. At the same time, don't overlook Amazon's unique dual-track strategy: one heavily invested in OpenAI, the other continuously increasing its stake in competitor Anthropic. This strategy of "betting on two opposing large models at the same time" is destined not to be judged solely from a single multi-bear perspective. 2. Bullish logic: This is a strategic bet, not blindly following the crowd 1. Breaking Microsoft's exclusive barriers to address AWS's biggest shortcomings In recent years, Microsoft has relied on exclusive cooperation with OpenAI, and Azure has rapidly caught up with AWS in the AI cloud track. Amazon's biggest pain point: lack of top-tier large model binding. The essence of this transaction is a long-term equity conversion power order. 50 billion yuan invested in OpenAI, enabling large-scale use of AWS computing power clusters, driving cloud business growth and promoting self-developed Trainium chips. Money goes to OpenAI, computing power orders flow back to AWS, forming an industry closed loop. 2. Deploying in the multi-cloud era to seize the enterprise AI wave The AI industry is moving away from a single cloud binding model, with leading model companies generally shifting toward multi-cloud strategies to diversify risk. OpenAI cannot rely on Microsoft's single computing power supply forever; AWS needs to serve as its second pillar of infrastructure. Amazon has obtained exclusive third-party distribution rights for OpenAI Frontier Enterprise Platform, opening up AI product channels for global enterprise clients and filling a second growth curve beyond e-commerce. 3. Locking in IPO chips in advance, betting on the long-term AGI narrative OpenAI plans to launch its IPO in 2027, with Amazon entering as preferred shares, converting to common stock after the IPO, and long-term lock up positions. If the commercialization of general artificial intelligence is realized on schedule, OpenAI's valuation has further upward potential, and this equity investment has huge potential. 3. Bearish logic: Numerous hidden dangers, bubble risk cannot be ignored 1. Severe valuation overdraw, profitability with no prospect of profits OpenAI is valued at $852 billion, with revenue of only tens of billions, and continues to suffer huge losses. Inference and training computing power costs remain high, and stable profit paths are unseen in the short term. The private market relies on long-term stories to support valuations. Once it enters the secondary market, funds will re-price with cash flow, creating significant pullback pressure from high valuations. 2. There is significant uncertainty in equity income and computing power orders Amazon holds only 5% of the shares, making it a minority external shareholder and unable to interfere with OpenAI's core strategic decisions. Microsoft still retains core API licenses and important intellectual property rights, while Amazon has obtained rights to niche businesses. The market should not overestimate the impact on Microsoft. Whether the computing power procurement agreement between both parties can be fully implemented and whether the penetration rate of self-developed chips can meet standards are all long-term variables. 3. Dual-line bets conceal resources to diversify risk At the same time, it has heavily invested in two major competitors, OpenAI and Anthropic, with the two models directly competing. In the long run, if one side continues to pull ahead, it means another massive investment faces depreciation risk, essentially betting on two teams in the same match. 4. The entire AI industry is trapped in a cycle of burning money Now, all the giants are caught in a computing power arms race: cloud vendors throw money, model companies burn computing power, and chip manufacturers benefit. The entire industry chain relies on continuous financing to keep running. If companies' AI budgets shrink and demand declines, the entire capital chain will be under pressure, and huge upfront investments can easily turn into sunk costs. 4. There are three major misconceptions in the market ❌ Misconception 1: Investing in OpenAI = Amazon completely surpasses Microsoft Wrong. Microsoft holds the authority to cooperate at the core underlying level, with a solid short-term advantage. This collaboration only breaks exclusive monopoly and does not involve a reversal of the landscape. ❌ Misconception 2: $50 billion is purely speculating on equity, betting on getting rich from going public One-sided. Amazon's primary goal is to drive AWS cloud revenue; equity investment is just an additional income, and computing power is the underlying demand. ❌ Misconception 3: Giants keep ramping up = the AI narrative will never break Historical patterns prove: in capital-intensive sectors, if commercialization falls short of capital expectations, valuation bubbles will be quickly squeezed out. Continuous spending does not mean the story is permanently valid. 今天有个消息，特朗普媒体集团正式推出了一个叫Truth API的付费数据服务。简单说，就是你想第一时间拿到特朗普本人在Truth Social上发的帖文数据，可以，交钱。每月10万美元。这价格听着挺吓人，但他们算盘打得很精。特朗普那个账号有1300万粉丝，而且他确实经常把Truth Social当成首发阵地，有些政策风向、个人表态都是先在那儿说。对于那些靠消息吃饭的交易公司、对冲基金来说，如果能比别人快那么几秒看到帖文，可能就值这个价。他们卖的不是帖子，是时间差。$TRUMP 临时CEO Kevin McGurn说得也很直白，就是要给机构客户提供“直接、有许可、实时”的数据流，而且挑明了这些帖文“具备市场影响力”，这几乎是把“我们的内容能影响股价”写在了脸上。$BEAT 不过，这东西一出来，政治上的麻烦肯定跟着来。两位民主党参议员Adam Schiff和Elizabeth Warren已经给SEC写信了，要求调查这事合不合法。他们的理由也很直接：你这是利用总统职务给自己公司创收，而且普通投资者拿不到同等信息，破坏了市场公平。这指控挺重的，等于说特朗普在拿公职身份给自家平台的数据 I made profits on two trades in $ONDO. Today, after carefully studying the ONDO market and careful consideration, I have decided to remove ONDO from my trading list for the following reasons: 1) Ondo's K-line charts have a ton of multiple frames, only those under five minutes have fewer arrows. I compared it to other knockoffs I often do. Except for Zec, none have as many as this, which makes my stop-loss very easy to hit. I really dislike this experience—I don't even know how terrifying the luck factor in my profitable two trades is! 2) In Ondo's operational logic, what you think it can do is what it can't, and what you think it can't do is also related to the reason there are too many needles. Resistance levels with liquidity are thought to be touched below before they can go down, but he is not; he simply refuses to touch them and immediately turns downward; Everyone thinks that once the liquidity support level is touched, it will rise, but she didn't. She simply didn't touch it, and even after it did, she had to play two points down before coming back up. Although ZEC has multiple needles, resistance is where it is, and support is support. The main players are very coordinated, so I will continue to trade ZEC. With this kind of setup, the main players can play whenever they want. I make contracts, but I can't outrun the main players, so I choose to withdraw, just like she once resolutely wanted to leave me. If you still want to play Ondo, I recommend pairing it with Liquidation Heatmap, which is more reliable. $ONDO Spot Positioning: Speaking of its spot market, I still believe the RWA sector has huge potential. As the leader, Ondo can achieve good growth. Even if Binance personally brings in US stocks, it won't have much impact on its future growth.Regarding whether $H is Humanity Protocol (H) and whether there is market maker control, based on current public data: Current project fundamentals The core narrative of Humanity Protocol is "Proof of Humanity," which belongs to the same track as Worldcoin, mainly solving real-person identity verification problems. However, in June 2026, the project encountered a major security incident: * Attackers control cross-chain bridge privileges * A large amount of H stolen and extra minting * Coin price plunged nearly 90% in a short period Is there suspicion of manipulation by the market makers? My judgment: Controlling suspicion: ★★★★ ☆ (High) There are several reasons: (1) Low flow + high FDV structure H has a total supply of 10 billion coins, while the circulating supply is about 3.1 billion. This structure means there is still a large amount of leverage waiting to be released in the future. When project teams, institutional investors, and early-stage financing rounds hold high positions, it can easily affect market prices. (2) Previously questioned for low-circulation pulling of the market On-chain analyst ZachXBT has publicly discussed H's market behavior and market-making issues. Although it was ultimately confirmed that the security incident is not directly related to market-making behavior, the market has long debated its fund-driven model. (3) Whale accumulation is obvious Appeared in April 2026: * Increase in active addresses * Whales continue to buy * Over a week's price increase of over 40%. This trend shows that large funds have a strong influence on prices. (4) Extreme fluctuations The all-time high was about $0.85. After the attack, the low was near $0.06. The decline exceeded 90% in a short period. Normally, mature projects rarely experience such volatility.Trump said, "America is loaded." A few hours ago, he announced on social media that he agreed to cancel strikes against Iran, on the condition that "both sides have reached an agreement on the framework of the agreement." The agreement includes the "immediate, complete, and thorough opening" of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as an end to the Iranian nuclear threat. Israel also suspended operations simultaneously. In less than 72 hours, the script ran through three acts. The first act is extreme pressure. On July 31, at a Camp David cabinet meeting, Trump declared that the United States would "strike hard" on Iran, using "unprecedented military terror, strength, and power levels since World War II." The U.S. Central Command has drafted a 10 to 14-day high-intensity bombing plan, targeting power plants and refineries. The second act is a substantial upgrade. On August 1, the U.S. State Department issued a broad security warning to American citizens in multiple Middle Eastern countries, advising them to "consider leaving or prepare for a rapid evacuation." Evacuation reminders never appear in the "verbal battle" phase—this is a sign that conflict is about to unfold. The third act is now. Trump verbally calls for a halt—has his finger left the trigger? No. The question is: is this "peace" truly reached an agreement between the two sides, or is it just a "show-off between sides" with each side speaking their own way? The Iranian military responded immediately. On August 2, Iran's Fars News Agency quoted military sources as saying that plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are "pure rumors." Another informed military source emphasized that as long as the U.S. continues hostile actions, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, ships can only use the announced routes, and must access Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sea Bitcoin short squeeze lifts the market upward but is not a trend reversal. The moment the rise caused by leverage liquidation is mistaken for new demand, positions stand at the most dangerous point. At this moment, ahead of the release of major US economic indicators, the biggest market risk is not the rise but a 'false confirmation.' The original $BEAT example illustrates this precisely. Prices appear firm, but volume is decreasing and open interest (OI) is falling. This is a typical pattern where prices rise due to exhaustion of selling pressure, not inflow of new capital. After short liquidation pushes prices up, if no new buyers emerge, the rally quickly fades. Currently, the derivatives market is sending two signals simultaneously. First, BTC is absorbing most of the market liquidity, causing a general contraction in altcoin futures OI. Second, temporary squeeze rallies are repeating in zones with high concentration of short positions. Structurally, this is not a signal of trend reversal but a short-term move targeting liquidation price ranges.On August 2nd, I summarized this week. I think the most important thing to watch in the market is not "how much has fallen," but rather the lack of a strong liquidity reason for the rebound. The first thing is macro. On July 29, the Fed maintained rates at 3.50%-3.75% at a 9:3 ratio, but Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan advocated for a 25bp increase, making rate cut trading less comfortable. The second thing is that mainstream coins haven't escaped the volatility. At 19:32 Beijing time, both OKX and Binance showed BTC at about $63,129 and ETH at about $1,864; CoinGecko also shows BTC down about 2.1% over the 7 days, ETH about -0.8%, SOL about -2.4%, and the total market capitalization is about $2.25 trillion. The third issue is that transactions are still relatively thin. CoinGecko shows that total market turnover in 24 hours was about $38.5 billion, down 24.8% from the previous day; DeFiLlama shows stablecoin supply increased by about $810 million per day, but decreased by about $1.86 billion week-over-week. Next week, I'll see if BTC can hold above the $62,000 level, and then see if trading volume returns above $50 billion. Do you think funds are waiting for signals again, or has risk appetite already taken a step back? If trading volume doesn't recover, will you focus more on BTC's defense, or on ETH's relative strength? #BTC #ETH #市場週報 This comment from $AAPL earnings should tell you everything you need to know because this is not just about memory, even though that is what the comment is tied to. Apple is facing the biggest supply chain crunch they have ever seen and all options--we know--includes foundry. $INTC 🎩 Everyone, watch closely—the 15 billion you see now is fake. Microsoft has just performed the most elegant "banknote disappearance trick" to the world. They didn't burn a single cent, just exchanged for a longer-lasting playing card: data centers and office buildings shuffled from 15 years to 25 years, and financial leasing quietly slipped into the hidden compartments of operating leasing. From 190 billion to 175 billion, with a crash, the numbers evaporated. But when the cards were reversed, the plan didn't change, not a single cent was reduced, only 15 billion was hidden up in their sleeves. This is the bookmaker's favorite hand-setting tactic: extending the depreciation period essentially shifts the audience's attention from "this hand is too big and the bet is too heavy" to "see, we are more restrained." But in reality? In the fourth quarter, capital expenditure plus financial leasing surged to 41 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 69%. The real stakes kept getting heavier, while the tricks on stage became lighter and lighter. You stared at that beautiful new number, while my hand under the table found the truth—the lease moved from capitalization to off-balance-sheet, not "saving," but "hiding." Like a magician swapping coins from his left hand to his right, then opening his left hand and saying, "Look, no." The audience applauds, and the dealer collects the money. This trick is called "accounting flexibility" on Wall Street, and in our jargon, it's "shuffling without reshuffling." Even more amazing is the time difference. Extending depreciation by ten years is like telling everyone: don't rush, this thing lasts a quarter of a century; the slow breakback is your illusion. But what about cash flow? What about real wear? While those machines aged and smoked in the machine room, the ones in the ledger were still young and beautiful. This is the essence of illusion—not to change reality, but to change the way you see reality. The entire market holds its breath, staring at this number as it jumps down, like an audience staring at the empty hands of a magician. But don't forget, real tricks never happen where you're staring. It happens in the moment you haven't seen—in the roar of 41 billion in Q4, in the 69% year-on-year acceleration, in the concrete and silicon wafers gently taken out of sight, yet smashed with real money. They use 15-year-old cards to shuffle a new illusion of 25 years, and you only see that smaller number. #MSFTCapexOnPaper Next week (8.3-8.9) Core Cryptocurrency Events Schedule: Next week will definitely be a "busy week," with macro employment data + stablecoin leader earnings reports + large token unlocks + multiple public chain upgrades all clustered together. Below are the dates for all key events, times, and impacts. Monday, August 3 Event 1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Beijing Time 22:00) 1. Content: Leading indicator of US manufacturing activity, directly reflecting the real economy's heat or cold, influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy; 2. Market impact: Strong data → stronger USD, rising US Treasury yields, BTC and Ethereum under pressure and weakening; weak data → funds betting on future rate cuts, favorable for crypto rebound; 3. My view: This is an appetizer data at the start of the week, unlikely to trigger a strong one-sided trend, at most causing 1%-2% short-term volatility. I won’t open new positions based on this news, only use it to gauge intraday bullish or bearish sentiment. Tuesday, August 4 Event 1: JOLTS Job Openings Data (22:00) US job openings number, used to assess labor market tightness, a leading employment indicator closely watched by the Fed; Event 2: SpaceX (SPCX) First Earnings Report Post-IPO 1. Key points: Starlink revenue, loss magnitude, space business growth rate; 2. Crypto market relevance: Sentiment in US tech growth stocks indirectly affects crypto markets; a disappointing earnings report could trigger a collective pullback in growth risk assets; 3. Personal take: The day after the earnings report, a $100 billion market cap unlock occurs. Bears are already positioned. Even if earnings are slightly positive, it’s hard to withstand the selling pressure from the unlock. I will watch but not trade or pre-position. Wednesday, August 5 | The first major day of the week ① Circle (CRCL stablecoin giant) Q2 Earnings Report (the week's grand finale) 1. Focus on 4 core data points: total USDC circulation, US Treasury interest income, new business revenue, management’s regulatory stance; 2. Market logic: USDC circulation stabilizing + profits exceeding expectations = compliant USD inflows entering the market, stable buying for BTC and Ethereum; conversely, continued shrinkage in circulation tightens market liquidity further, weakening the market; 3. My action: Reduce contract positions to below 30% before the report, fearing a disappointing report causing a plunge. Wait for the earnings call to finish, observe capital flows, then decide whether to go long. ② PROVE Large Cliff-Edge Token Unlock A one-time unlock of 104.17% of circulating tokens, representing concentrated heavy selling pressure, will directly crash PROVE’s price short-term. Holders must prepare stop-loss and take-profit in advance; do not stubbornly hold through the drop. ③ XRPL Ripple Ledger v3.3.0 Upgrade Voting Begins Adds institutional permission delegation, private transfers, and fee delegation features, favorable for long-term institutional adoption of XRP. If the upgrade vote passes smoothly, XRP will see a small independent rally, a positive catalyst for this small-cap token. Thursday, August 6 ① SpaceX $100 Billion Market Cap Restricted Stock Unlock 911.5 million shares unlocked, early low-cost shares face concentrated selling pressure. Volatility in US tech stocks will indirectly affect crypto risk appetite; ② Two Important Ethereum Layer 2 Upgrades Go Live 1. Taiko network Unzen upgrade: strengthens zero-knowledge proof security and decentralization, improves L2 architecture, positive for L2 sector sentiment; 2. MultiversX mainnet version upgrade: optimizes exchange integration and cross-chain compatibility, driving movement in the public chain sector; ③ US Initial Jobless Claims Data (20:30) High-frequency employment data used to anticipate Friday’s nonfarm payrolls trend. The market will pre-game the nonfarm based on initial claims, causing BTC to experience narrow-range shakeouts. Friday, August 7 | The biggest macro event of the week: US July Nonfarm Payroll Report (20:30) 1. Core data: nonfarm payroll additions, unemployment rate, wage growth; the Fed’s first full employment report after the July meeting; 2. Two extreme scenarios: - Nonfarm significantly weakens: market rate cut expectations rise, USD plunges, BTC and Ethereum likely rally 3%-5%; - Nonfarm exceeds expectations strongly: crushes rate cut hopes, US Treasury yields surge, crypto faces a deep correction; 3. My core approach: Nonfarm causes huge volatility. I will close all contract positions before the data release, keep only a base spot position, not bet on data direction, and wait for the market to stabilize before opening new positions. Historically, nonfarm nights often see sharp spikes and crashes, heavy contract positions risk liquidation overnight. Saturday–Sunday 8.8-8.9 (Weekend with no major macro events, mostly fund digestion) 1. The market mainly digests Circle earnings and nonfarm data lagging sentiment. After big moves during the week, the weekend will likely see sideways consolidation; 2. Fund flow observation: whale BTC and ETH accumulation or selling behavior, increased large on-chain transfers over the weekend often signal a gap-up or gap-down move at Monday’s open. Set price alerts before sleep. Recently, many are debating whether to pre-position long bets for positive news. Are you planning to reduce positions to hedge before earnings and nonfarm, or take small positions to bet on direction early?AI stock god "clears out," Micron jumps 15% in seconds—the main players are using news to shake the market, have you been left behind? I glanced at the board, and it was quite interesting. A certain "AI stock god" level fund made a high-profile clearance of Micron-related holdings yesterday, and once the news broke, retail investors were buzzing with "run away." And what happened? Micron's strong bullish candlestick saw a single-day gain of over 15%, directly contradicting the trend followers. 💡 Don't focus on who is selling; watch who is taking them. The news belongs to others, but the position is yours. This round of funds clearly didn't buy into the "celebrity share reduction" account; instead, they used negative news to wash off floating funds and then flipped the price to blow up. The logic is actually quite strong: 1. AI servers are eating up memory like crazy HBM and DDR5 orders are scheduled until next year, and Micron's capacity is maxed out. This isn't a cyclical stock—it's a case of computing infrastructure selling shovels. 2. Performance speaks for itself, and expectation management is in place The latest financial report beats expectations, and the guidance for next quarter has been revised upward again. Right now, funds only recognize one thing—whether next quarter's EPS can continue to rise. 3. Counterparty Mindset Big players clearing positions = liquidity release. Smart money is waiting for this kind of 'open sign negative news' that creates a golden pit—whoever can hold steady will ride the main rally. 📌 In the crypto and US stock markets, the ultimate challenge is not speed of following trends, but pricing fundamentals. Changes in a fund's position cannot alter industry trends. What truly determines stock price is always a company's ability to sustain profits. Don't treat the big boss like a god, Treat data as faith. #美光 #MU #AI算力 #HBM #存储芯片 #交易思维 #欧易星球一场狂欢后的集体创伤 2026年8月2日，首尔。当KOSPI指数在周五创纪录地反弹18%时，散户们却做出了一个反常举动，创纪录地净卖出。这并非理性获利了结，更像是一场信任崩塌后的仓皇出逃。就在两个月前，他们还是满怀希望的“国家队”，如今却自嘲为赌局中最后的接盘者。从“改革红利”到“暴跌陷阱”$SNDK 故事的开头带着政策利好与造富神话的色彩。受总统李在明推动的股市改革及单只股票杠杆ETF这一新鲜事物上市刺激，韩国散户在5月至6月间疯狂涌入，累计买入约78万亿韩元的KOSPI股票。许多人抱着“改革必涨”的信念，甚至不惜借贷入场，首尔一位40岁的投资者就以住房作抵押，借款5000万韩元投身股市。$SKHYNIX 然而，7月的市场急转直下。KOSPI指数当月累计暴跌22%，创下全球金融危机以来的最大月度跌幅，期间更4次触发熔断，创单月纪录。市值约3.9万亿美元的韩国股市，在短短一个月内让无数家庭财富缩水。社交媒体上，愤怒取代了期待，矛头直指政府。 “赌场”论调与投资者的决绝 “政府把股市变成了赌场。”那位抵押房产的投资者愤怒地批评杠杆ETF的推出。在他看来，这些高风险工具并非投资产品，$BTC No crash, marginal buying disappeared first Let's start with the conclusion: As of August 2, BTC fell from near Monday's opening of $65,300 to about $63,100, a cumulative decline of about 3.4%. The weekend low hit $62,300, with a drawdown of about 5.1% from the week's high. This isn't really a crash. The real issue is: rising Treasury yields, ETF funds fluctuating, strategies stopping sustained buying, and three forces simultaneously weakening BTC's marginal buying interest. Afterwards, leveraged longs were liquidated, pushing the price further down to $62,000. My judgment is that BTC is bottoming out, but the reversal has not yet been confirmed. $62,000–$63,000 is currently the most important support, while $69,000 is the real threshold that determines the medium-term trend. The drop was not large, but the trend clearly weakened On Monday, the market briefly traded as the US-Iran situation eased and oil prices fell, pushing BTC back above $65,000. But problems soon arose. Declining geopolitical risks, US stock rebounds, and a weaker dollar have not allowed BTC to break through the previous high near $66,700. Instead, the price surged on Monday and then continued to fall, indicating a lack of spot funds willing to chase prices above $65,000. Even after factoring in this week's decline, BTC still rose about 7.5% throughout July. So this is more like the July rebound encountering resistance, rather than a sudden new systemic crash. The Fed has not raised rates, but liquidity has tightened This week, the Fed voted 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but three members called for an immediate 25 basis point hike. On the surface, no rate hikes should be positive for BTC. But what the market is really trading on is not whether there will be a rate hike this time, but whether inflation can be controlled and how long high interest rates will last. After the meeting, short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, while long-term yields continued to rise, with the 30-year yield reaching a 19-year high. This indicates the market's concern that the Fed will temporarily hold off on raising interest rates, which could ultimately make inflation and long-term financing costs harder to control. This is especially unfavorable for BTC. Currently, the three-month BTC spot arbitrage yield is already lower than that of the two-year Treasury yield. For institutions, since buying U.S. Treasuries can yield higher and more stable returns, there is no need to bear risks related to BTC prices, trading platforms, or capital efficiency. To put it bluntly, cash can really be "made lying down" nowadays. BTC must provide greater upside expectations to attract capital back. ETFs did not retreat on a large scale, but buying was too volatile This week, the daily capital flows for US spot BTC ETFs were: Monday saw a net outflow of $11.6 million, Tuesday $49.7 million, Wednesday $32.1 million, Thursday $233.1 million, and Friday another $265.4 million. Over five trading days, there was a combined net outflow of approximately $61.5 million. $61.5 million is not large compared to BTC's market cap of over $1.2 trillion, so it cannot simply be said that this week's decline was entirely caused by ETF dumping. The real problem is the lack of continuity in funding. On Thursday, there was just a net inflow of $233.1 million, which was completely offset by outflows of $265.4 million on Friday. BlackRock's IBIT saw $122.7 million in outflows in a single day, and Fidelity's FBTC saw $54.8 million in outflows. Currently, there is neither panic withdrawal in ETF channels nor stable bottom-fishing. Institutions are not continuously selling BTC, but are watching and waiting. Strategy shifted from fixed buyers to potential supply In the past, the market assumed the strategy would continuously raise funds and buy BTC. However, the company has not bought for three consecutive weeks and currently holds about 843775 BTC, with an average cost of approximately $75,476. The company previously sold about $500 million in stock, but did not continue to use these funds to purchase BTC. Strategy's latest financial report shows that the company is increasing its dollar reserves and plans to repurchase preferred shares if STRC falls below $100. Current dollar reserves are about $3.75 billion, enough to cover more than 2.1 years of interest and preferred dividends. This does not mean Strategy will be forced to sell BTC on a large scale soon. However, it shows that the company's primary goal has shifted from "increasing BTC holdings as much as possible" to gradually shifting to "maintaining cash flow, preferred stock prices, and capital structure." The once most stable marginal buyers have temporarily disappeared, and BTC may be used to replenish US dollar reserves when necessary. Of course, the market will discount this potential supply in advance. Leverage amplifies the decline, but it is not the starting point of the decline After the Fed meeting, BTC futures open interest briefly rose to a two-month high, but spot prices remained elusive. This means leverage has re-entered the market, but genuine spot buying has not strengthened in tandem. When ETF outflows shifted, Strategy news spread, and BTC fell below $64,000, bulls began to be forced to close their positions. Around July 31, about $121 million was liquidated in BTC, of which about $100 million came from long positions, accounting for nearly 83%. So the lever is an accelerator, not an igniter. What truly fueled the decline was insufficient spot demand. Leverage only amplifies the originally slow pullback into a test of the $62,000 support level. There hasn't been a crash on the chain, but evidence of reversal is still insufficient BTC is currently in the intensive cost zone between $62,000 and $68,000, where a large number of tokens have been traded over. Long-term holders form support below, but most short-term holders who bought in recent months are still at a loss. When the price rebounds close to its average cost of about $69,000, this group of funds is likely to exit the even-cut position. Meanwhile, BTC spot trading volume has dropped to one of the lowest levels since 2019, and exchange deposit and withdrawal activity has also been very sluggish. This is not panic, but more indifference. Sellers have not fully surrendered, and buyers are unwilling to actively chase prices at the current level. As a result, the order book becomes thinner, and a small amount of capital can cause greater price volatility. So my current judgment is simple: In the short term, as long as $62,000–$63,000 holds, BTC may still maintain its bottoming range and retest $65,700 and $66,700. The real bullish confirmation is not a one-day rebound, but rather BTC volume surging above $69,000, while ETF continues to see net inflows and spot trading volume rebounds. Good morning, Investors. $MSFT jumped 8% and $AMZN surged over 10% this week after Azure grew 43% and AWS grew 37%. Meanwhile $AAPL sitting near its all time high slipped and $META dropped almost 10% despite double digit revenue growth. That is the pattern right now. The market is not rewarding size or hype. It is rewarding the names that were still underestimated going in. The next real test comes on August 26 when $NVDA reports and the whole AI capex debate goes back on trial. Stay bullish.$SKHYNIX Friday closed at 1.718 million won, marking the first time in history that the 30% daily limit was sealed up, with foreign investors' single-day net purchase of 8.79 trillion won setting a new KOSPI record. The reverse side of this bullish candlestick is the collapse over the past 38 days. On June 22, the KOSPI peaked at 9,114 points, and by July 30, it had retraced more than 38%, with a market value evaporation equivalent to about 13.53 trillion RMB. After the financing threshold was relaxed in May, Samsung and Hynix's 2x leveraged ETFs were fiercely sought after by retail investors, with trading volume once accounting for over 70% of the entire market. Among 870,000 Samsung shareholders, 42% posted unrealized losses, and among 400,000 SK Hynix shareholders, 57% were stuck. The account that was forcibly liquidated on July 29 didn't get to hit the daily limit two days later. The ADR conversion rate for the weekend has dropped about 4.9% from Friday's close, with Monday's opening expected to gap up and open 5-7% lower. A 30% single-day gain means short-term profit-taking is extremely crowded, while retail investor sentiment that has just undergone leverage washing is extremely fragile—both forces will be released simultaneously at Monday's open. The relationship between profit-taking pressure and position vacuum is not symmetrical. On the day of the limit-up, 6 trillion won in foreign capital poured into Samsung and Hynix, indicating that the pricing anchor for incremental funds has shifted from the storage price cycle to long-term earnings reassessment for AI demand. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won increased his holdings by 3,620 shares in the first public market the day before the limit-up, totaling about 4.786 billion won. This move was seen by the market as a signal of confidence, but the volume was limited in absorbing Monday's selling pressure. If foreign investors continue to maintain net buying after Monday's low opening and keep the decline within 5% and stabilize quickly, it indicates that the logic of AI storage revaluation is being accepted by institutional funds, and the room for further correction may be limited. Analysts set the upper bound of the target price at 4.7 million KRW, implying that the HBM capacity premium will continue to be realized over the next two years. Conversely, if Monday's drop exceeds 7% and foreign capital turns net selling, buying on limit-up day feels more like a pulse in an oversold rebound than a trend start. Retail investors who have just been cleaned out by leveraged ETF circuit breakers find it difficult to re-invest in the short term, and the liquidity vacuum may amplify downward volatility. The lower edge of analysts' target price is 1.48 million KRW, which is not far from Friday's closing price, which itself suggests that a considerable number of institutions are not optimistic about current valuations. On the on-chain side, BSC has already introduced the meme coin $KOSPI with SK Hynix as its dividend target, making Korea's AI chip leader a source of cross-market narrative. When the volatility of a traditional stock is high enough to spark meme cultural resonance, it indicates that the divergence between bulls and bears has already gone beyond fundamental pricing. In the first hour after Monday's opening, the direction and scale of net foreign capital buying were the only variables worth watching. #HYPE再遭亿元解押, Japanese companies enter the market for the first time#SPCX首份财报将公布 with the $100 billion unlock imminent In July, the trading volume of tokenized stocks reached $11.3 billion, a month-on-month increase of 288%. It looks very hot, but about 82% of that comes from a single QQQ token, QQQB. If you exclude QQQB, the remaining trading volume is only about $2.03 billion, which is actually about 30% lower than in June. This indicates that there is indeed demand in the sector, but the current growth heavily relies on a single product, zero order fees, and platform incentives. To judge whether RWA is truly booming, you can't just look at the total trading volume; you also need to see if the trading is diversified and whether users can stay consistently. Do you think this is the start of a new trend, or just a short-term boom created by subsidies? 39,600 BTC suddenly "moved"—this time, the market was not afraid of a drop The suspected Coldcard security incident is still under investigation, but there has already been a response on the #BTC chain: small transfers under 1 BTC per transaction have reached their highest level since November 2022, with about 39,600 BTC transferred through such transactions that day. How outrageous is this scale? On November 16, 2022, just days after FTX filed for bankruptcy, the volume of similar transfers was about 39,900 BTC. This time, only about 300 BTC is lost, equivalent to 99.25% of the peak since the FTX era. For small-amount addresses mainly composed of retail and individual holders, nearly 40,000 BTC are moving together, clearly not ordinary daily payments. But don't rush to interpret these transfers as sell-offs. If BTC mainly flows to new addresses, hardware wallets, or multisig addresses, it is more likely that users actively change custody schemes; Only when a large amount of BTC continues to enter exchange deposit addresses will a relatively direct potential selling pressure form. So what should really be watched next is net inflows from exchanges, not just the amount of on-chain transfers. This incident once again shows: cold wallets do not guarantee absolute safety. Any problem in hardware, firmware updates, mnemonic word backups, address verification, or any link in the supply chain can turn "holding assets yourself" into another risk. On the positive side, users did not wait for the incident to fully escalate but actively migrated #Bitcoin, indicating that after FTX, the market's security awareness has indeed increased. Short-term pressure may not necessarily be negative for BTC prices, but for the entire self-custody industry, the migration of 39,600 BTC close to FTX's peak is a real stress test. $BTC #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard

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