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$CHZ Rebounds as Buyers Regain Momentum 🚀
$CHZ is trading around $0.01293 on the 1H OKX chart, up 2.45% over the past 24 hours. After finding support near $0.01255, buyers stepped in and pushed the price back toward the $0.01302 daily high, signaling renewed strength following the recent sell-off.
The current structure has improved, with higher lows and steady buying pressure suggesting bulls are gradually regaining control. As long as price holds above the recent recovery zone, another attempt to challenge today's high remains possible. However, rejection near resistance could lead to a short period of consolidation before the next move.
For now, momentum continues to favor the upside, and a confirmed break above $0.01302 would strengthen the bullish outlook.
Do you think $CHZ can reclaim today's high and extend its recovery, or will sellers defend the current resistance? 🌈
#EarningsWeekAhead Not every bubble burst becomes a market crash. The real question is where the money goes next. 📊
The recent correction in storage chip stocks has been sharp, but it hasn't triggered a systemic shock.
Despite heavy selling across the storage sector, the S&P 500 is still only about 1.6% below its all-time high, showing that the broader market remains surprisingly resilient.
The storage sector has taken a significant hit, with Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung all pulling back sharply, while the Korean stock market has experienced heightened volatility.
So why hasn't the broader market cracked?
Here's what stands out:
1️⃣ This is a structural reset—not an economic crisis.
Capital is leaving an overcrowded and overvalued corner of the AI hardware trade, but it's not abandoning risk assets altogether.
2️⃣ Money is rotating, not disappearing.
Funds exiting storage hardware are flowing into cloud companies, cash-flow-rich tech leaders, and defensive sectors, helping support the broader market.
3️⃣ The financial system isn't heavily exposed.
Banks don't have excessive leverage tied to the storage industry, so there's no widespread credit stress or obvious trigger for a systemic sell-off.
Two important signals the market is sending:
① AI is entering a new phase of differentiation.
Investors are becoming far more selective. Instead of buying every AI-related stock, the focus is shifting toward companies that can actually convert the AI narrative into profits.
Businesses relying more on future promises than current earnings are likely to remain under valuation pressure.
② A localized bubble bursting doesn't mean the bull market is over.
But it does suggest the era of everything moving higher together is fading.
From here, market leadership is likely to become increasingly selective, with the gap between winners and losers continuing to widen.
My view:
The resilience of the broader market shouldn't lead to complacency.
So far, the damage has largely been contained within the storage supply
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK Whales are quietly hoarding, and exchange inflows are declining
On one hand, Strategy has made a slight reduction; on the other, on-chain data tells a different story.
Multiple on-chain monitoring shows that whales have been continuously accumulating shares since July. Data shows that whales bought about $23 billion worth of BTC in the past 30 days, marking the largest single-month accumulation in 13 years; Another statistic states that in the past two weeks, major players have accumulated about 270,000 BTC (approximately $16.7 billion).
At the same time, negative exchange net flow continues—coins moving from exchanges to cold wallets, indicating retail investors are selling and institutions are collecting.
These two signals should be viewed together: short-term selling pressure from strategy reductions, but medium- to long-term chips are concentrating on strong players. Historically, this "weak hand against strong hand" structure is often characterized by bottom ranges.
But I have to pour cold water: on-chain data comes from different sources. The sources for 23 billion and 270,000 coins are different and can't be simply added. The conclusion can only be said to be "biased toward accumulation," and cannot be exaggerated as precise numbers.
Are you stockpiling now or waiting for a lower price? A keeps buying as prices fall, B is below 60,000 yuan, C is already out on the sidelines
#BTC #鲸鱼积累 #交易所净流出 #链上数据Strategy is really selling BTC, but not "clearing out and running away"
Some say Saylor is going to sell. I checked the real data and concluded: they are indeed selling, but the scale is limited, not a clearance.
WSJ July 6 report: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) posted a Q2 digital asset loss of $8.32 billion. The reason for the loss was that it sold 1,363 BTC (average price 59,256) on June 29-30, and another 2,225 BTC (average price 60,773) on July 1-5, totaling 3,588 BTC, all below cost.
Its current holding price is $75,476, and it currently holds 843775 BTC.
But don't panic and shout "Saylor ran away." Key facts:
It sold 3,588 tokens, accounting for less than 0.5% of the total supply
The company clearly stated that this is to "optimize balance sheet/liquidity," not bearish
Its debt is non-recourse, so it won't be forced into liquidation just because BTC drops
My own judgment: this is a strategic reduction in positions, not a collapse of faith. What really matters to watch are the maturity pressure on its convertible bonds and the dividends on preferred shares—these are the key factors for whether it will continue to sell in the future.
Are you afraid that Strategy's selling pressure will push BTC down? Share your position in the comments and see whether everyone is holding on or running right now.
#Strategy #Saylor #BTC持仓 #减仓#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
I think inflation data keeps swinging, making it difficult for the Fed to smoothly start a series of rate cuts
#SPCX首份财报将公布, $100 billion unlocked: US inflation data fluctuates between high and low, and the pace of decline is very slow, making it difficult for the Fed to smoothly shift its monetary policy. The probability of consecutive rate cuts within the year is extremely low, and the high interest rate environment will last much longer than the market previously expected.
#财报观察员: Next Thursday's raffle will be held, with Circle's 10-year Treasury yield holding steady at 4.74%. The probability of a rate hike in September remains 85%, continuing to weigh on global risk assets. The Nasdaq's rise can only rely on corporate earnings to withstand valuation pressure, and the pace of the upward move will slow significantly. Bitcoin is oscillating within a box at $62,908; if tightening is not lifted, the crypto sector will not break out of the bull trend.
Rate cut fantasies need to be gradually dispelled. Going forward, the market will mainly be volatile and fluctuating. Control the rhythm of the swing and avoid betting on a major easing rally.$BTC This round of semiconductor sector rally is highly fragmented. $ETH SME design and manufacturing companies are affected by downstream demand fluctuations, $BEAT revenue fluctuates. Only leading companies with computing power orders and top-tier technology barriers can sustain stable profits through cycles.
NVIDIA firmly holds the vast majority of the AI chip market share, with revenue surging month by month, while second-tier semiconductor companies see very little order increment. The Nasdaq rose at 25,373 points thanks to leading weights, while miscellaneous stocks continued to weaken. US Treasury Treasuries tighten liquidity at high levels, and market funds will only cluster together quality assets based on the best ones.
Micron, a cyclical leader in the storage sector, also has profit resilience. Niche semiconductor stocks can be abandoned by capital at any time, so focusing on leading stocks is the key to avoiding losses caused by market divergence. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 Today is Sunday, the market is as thin as a late-night diner, with hardly any customers. Bitcoin closed around 62,800, down more than 3 points in a day. Ethereum returned to around 1,866, and the total market cap shrank to 2180 billion. The mainstream collectively turned about 3% in the red. The situation isn't bad, just a bit lacking energy. The reasons for the drop aren't complicated. Money is like falling in love—whoever offers more certainty tends to fall into your arms. The S&P has rebounded these past two days, and funds have quietly shifted to US stocks. Plus, Strategy is still hyping and continuing to sell coins. Another stable buyer is gone. The weekend is thin The slightest disturbance causes a few shakes. But what really weighs everyone's mood is that old friend who comes around this time every year. The August curse. Looking over the past fifteen years, the average BTC return in August was -0.64, with a median of -7.87, making it the only month with a negative median all year. Simply put, it's a seasonal 'emo' kid. As soon as summer breaks come, you want to lie flat. Don't expect underperforming students to submit a perfect score on the first day of school. But that doesn't mean they're hopeless. You have to look at where they have tutoring. The resistance above 65,000 to 70,000 is a must-reclaim resistance line. It can be reclaimed This downtrend is the end of the page. If it can't be recovered, the 60,000 mark will likely need to be stepped down and confirmed again. What to watch tomorrow. Next week's US nonfarm payroll is a major test. The market expects an increase of 91,000. Once the data increases, volatility increases. The US dollar index is still flat around 999. Before the data comes out, this calm usually means deep breaths, not that it's okay. In trading, it's just one thing: don't go head-to-head with a month currently in emo. Light positions wait for stabilization signals before going up Nvidia's performance in computing power has led the entire U.S. tech scene by a wide margin, and its stock price has already fully exhausted its performance expectations for the coming years. However, Amazon's current valuation remains reasonably low, with steady growth in cloud and e-commerce revenues, and the room for further gains will far exceed that of Nvidia.
On August 2, the Nasdaq closed higher overall, with Amazon's gains clearly lagging behind the hash power leaders, indicating a strong need for valuation recovery. The election cycle and interest rate cut expectations will both boost the consumer + cloud services sector, while the 4.74% US Treasury yield pressure will only cause short-term volatility. Bitcoin continues to move sideways, and funds will gradually flow into individual stocks in the value trough.
As the hash power hype gradually fades, funds will shift to undervalued blue chips. Amazon's potential for long-term growth is worth holding for realization.The U.S. election cycle will continue to benefit the overall U.S. stock market. The ruling party will introduce various policies to stabilize the economy and boost the capital market, avoiding major market volatility before the election. Boosted by this, the Nasdaq and the tech sector will likely rise more easily than fall over the next three months, making a deep correction unlikely.
Currently, 25,373 points provide policy support, with Nvidia and Microsoft steadily raising the index. Even if US Treasury yields remain high at 4.74%, policy hedging will lessen the negative impact of tightening. Bitcoin is constrained by both regulation and liquidity constraints, so it will continue to maintain a box-weaving pattern.
The election dividend window is extremely valuable. Every small pullback during this period is an excellent opportunity to build up position returns. Just rely on cyclical dividends to steadily accumulate returns.Recently, visiting major trading communities revealed that the vast majority of retail traders are unanimously bullish on the Nasdaq, generally believing the index will only reach new highs without a sharp drop, and the market view is highly unified. Years of trading experience have told me that a consistently bullish trend across the entire network is often not far from the stage top. The Nasdaq accumulated massive short-term profit-taking positions at the 25,373 point level, with retail investors collectively entering to buy shares, allowing institutions to seize the opportunity to distribute chips in batches. 4.74% US Treasury yields show no signs of decline, and valuations lack conditions for sustained expansion. Bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index scores 33, plunging into panic, with funds hiding uncertainty in their willingness to hedge safe. Extreme optimism is the biggest hidden risk in the market, and a sharp pullback could occur at any time. Do not blindly add positions to long positions following public sentiment.One headline can spark a rally. The next can erase it just as fast. That's the market we're trading right now. ⚠️
President Trump ($TRUMP) said the U.S. would cancel a planned attack on Iran if a deal is reached quickly.
The reported framework includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, progress on Iran's nuclear program, and a broader regional arrangement involving Israel.
For financial markets, this is a short-term de-escalation signal.
If negotiations move forward, oil could lose part of its geopolitical premium, while risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies could benefit from a relief rally as investors rotate out of defensive positions.
But nothing has been finalized.
The proposal is still conditional on both sides reaching an agreement, meaning geopolitical risk hasn't disappeared.
Any setback in negotiations, rejection from Iran, or renewed threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could quickly send oil prices higher and put fresh pressure on stocks and crypto.
The market is now watching three key developments:
• Official confirmation from Iran.
• Clear terms and a timeline for any agreement.
• Evidence that commercial shipping can safely resume through the Strait of Hormuz.
Until then, expect markets to stay driven by headlines.
If progress is confirmed, stocks and crypto could extend higher while oil and gold may ease.
If negotiations break down, don't be surprised to see a sharp reversal.
Right now, patience is likely to be more valuable than chasing the first move.
$TRUMP $BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK The overnight 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded slightly to above 4.74%, and the US dollar index strengthened in tandem. In my view, a further rise in risk-free rates would directly interrupt the Nasdaq's current upward momentum, bringing the short-term upward trend to an end and a fluctuating correction to follow.
High-valuation tech stocks are highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations; every round of yield increases compresses the valuation space for growth stocks, with an 85% chance of a rate hike in September being repriced by funds. The Nasdaq 25373 is under severe pressure at high levels and needs to pull back to digest profit-taking, with the rebound in US Treasuries becoming the trigger for the decline.
Bitcoin is simultaneously under pressure and fluctuating within a narrow range, with the downward linkage between the two asset classes temporarily recovering. High-level risks continue to accumulate, so it is essential to tighten positions at this stage to avoid pullback impacts.Crowding and Crowding List
This group doesn't rank by rate, but only seeks high-cost positions and their price feedback.
$HOME Current rate -0.0916%, closed -0.030% in the past 24 hours, at the 29th percentile of the most recent sample. As prices fall and positions shrink, risk exposure is shrinking, so it cannot be directly labeled as new short positions. OI is shrinking, with the core of the market being position exits; Rate bias does not mean the exiting party has been confirmed.
$GRVT Current rate -0.0720%, closed -0.020% in the past 24 hours, at the 35th percentile of the most recent sample. Increasing positions after a 15-minute drop indicates that new positions were added during this period of pressure. Holding costs remain in the normal range, and the combination of price and OI is more useful than the absolute value of the rate. The historical sample contains only 17 settlement points, and the percentiles are currently only auxiliary.
$MMT Current rate -0.0479%, closed in the past 24 hours -0.756%, at the 11th percentile of the most recent sample. Within 15 minutes, the price fell while the OI increased, so market pressure did not release along with the decline. Short costs are relatively high but prices still cooperate, and the structure has not been broken; stopping the decline will be the first warning.$BTC I think the tech small-cap rally has ended, $ETH capital should cluster around large-cap heavyweight stocks
$MU A review of the past month of U.S. stock capital flows clearly shows that trading volumes in small- and mid-cap tech stocks have continued to shrink, the rally has come to an end, and Wall Street funds have entered an extreme clustering mode, with all liquidity concentrated on ultra-large-cap heavyweight giants like Nvidia and Microsoft.
On August 2, the Nasdaq closed up 1%, holding steady at 25,373 points, with all gains contributed by large-cap heavyweights, while over a thousand small-cap tech stocks mostly closed lower. In a high interest rate environment, funds are avoiding the operational volatility risks of small-cap stocks, prioritizing leading companies with stable cash flow and solid profitability. Bitcoin is trading sideways at $62,908, with existing funds competing fiercely, with no diverting of US stocks from clustered funds.
In the coming months, the strong will continue to strengthen the pattern of the strong getting stronger. Abandoning small-cap miscellaneous stocks and tightly holding onto core weights is the only way to steadily keep pace with the US stock bull market.$MOVE Shows Signs of Recovery as Bulls Regain Short-Term Control 🚀
$MOVE is trading around $0.00763 on the 1H OKX chart, up 2.54% over the past 24 hours. After finding support near $0.00727, buyers stepped in and pushed price back toward the $0.00768 intraday high, signaling improving short-term momentum.
The recent structure shows a steady rebound with higher lows forming after the latest dip. Holding above the $0.00750 area keeps the recovery intact and leaves room for another attempt toward today’s high. A clean break above $0.00768 would strengthen the bullish case, while failure to hold current levels could trigger a short-term pullback toward support.
For now, momentum is improving and buyers appear to be regaining control of the 1H trend.
Do you think $MOVE can break above today’s high and extend the recovery, or will resistance keep the price range-bound in the short term?
#EarningsWeekAhead $NVDA After a two-year downward cycle, $SKHYNIX global memory chip prices continue to recover, #SPCX首份财报将公布 with the $100 billion unlock imminent, the industry chain inventory is gradually being cleared, and the #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 industry has officially entered a window of reversal at the bottom of the cycle. This is the core reason why I have long been optimistic about Micron. Compared to the broader technology sector, the storage sector has huge performance elasticity, and its future upside potential will significantly outperform the average gains of the Nasdaq.
On August 2, the Nasdaq rose thanks to leading computing power stocks, while the storage sector was still in a low-level accumulation phase, with valuations still at historically low levels. When third-quarter storage company revenue recovers sharply, funds will concentrate in this undervalued sector. U.S. Treasury prices are temporarily suppressing the market, but the fundamentals of the cycle will not be changed by short-term monetary policy.
Bitcoin is mired in volatility and unable to attract capital, with hot money gradually flowing into the cyclical reversal hardware track. Micron's future market is worth long-term holding. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 Fundamental Research Report $STORJ / Storj (DePIN) $3.20
To summarize: Storj ($STORJ) has an overall score of 50/100, with a rating that narrative emphasizes practical application. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Storj (token $STORJ), DePIN sector. Focusing on distributed cloud storage. Benchmarking against FIL and AR. Traditional computing power leasing is done by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by the hour of the GPU. The A100's monthly rent is $12,000–$25,000, which is expensive and has a high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power through bidding, so suppliers do not need centralized review, turning idle GPUs into usable supply. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Let's look together with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Storj $3.00B, FIL not disclosed, AR not disclosed. For FDV, Storj $4.20B, FIL undisclosed, AR undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Storj $2.00M, FIL undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Storj has not disclosed, FIL has not disclosed, AR has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In short: solid fundamentals (rating 50/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Tracking metrics: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
That's all for now. See you next time.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitEveryone's watching the earnings. The real question is what happens after. 👀
SpaceX reports earnings on Aug. 4.
Just two days later, up to 911.5 million insider shares become eligible for sale.
For perspective, the IPO floated only about 629 million shares.
No one is questioning whether SpaceX is a great company.
The market is asking something much simpler:
Has the current valuation already priced in too much of its future success?
That's the question investors will be trying to answer over the coming days.
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
For the first time in 28 years, the US directly bought the yen, joining forces with Japan to defend the yen.
On July 31, the New York Fed, representing the U.S. Treasury, sold euros and bought yen through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. This is the first time since 2011 that the United States has intervened in the yen exchange rate.
That day, the USD/JPY plunged from around 163 to 157.97, dropping nearly 500 points in less than an hour, a single-day drop of 3.3%, marking the largest drop in three years. On the same day, the Japanese government sold up to $58.97 billion to buy yen. For the first time in nearly 30 years, the US and Japan have jointly bought yen directly to support their currencies.
The core impact on BTC lies in carry trades
The impact of this incident on BTC is not geopolitical, but rather in carry trades. The yen is the core financing currency for carry trades; traders borrow yen at near-zero interest rates, convert it into US dollars, and then invest in high-yield assets, including US Treasuries, tech stocks, and Bitcoin.
The yen suddenly appreciates sharply, and those who borrowed yen must immediately buy back the yen to close their positions, or they will lose money. Closing a position requires selling the assets you hold, and BTC is one of the assets being sold.
The data has already provided the answer: after intervention reports, BTC fell below $63,000, down 4.5% in 12 hours, wiping out $56.5 billion in market value. ETH fell 4.6%, with $240 million in positions liquidated during the same period. US stocks are rising, with the Nasdaq up 1%, the S&P up 0.7%, and BTC alone declining. This decline has nothing to do with fundamentals or macro narrative; it's purely a liquidity shock from unwinding positions through carry trades.
What should we do next?
The Bank of Japan currently rates 1% policy and will raise rates at least once more this year. The US-Japan interest rate spread has narrowed, and the risk of unwinding carry trades has not been eliminated.
If the yen continues to appreciate and carry trades are further unwinded, BTC may face a new round of selling pressure. But if the yen stabilizes and the panic over carry trades subsides, BTC will recover quickly. This decline is unrelated to fundamentals but a liquidity shock caused by carry trade closing positions. Once the yen stabilizes, the funds that should have come back will come back. # Don't assume BTC's popularity is a buying opportunity: this round of data shows a slowdown
The focus of BTC this round isn't on whether the volume is high, but whether speed and tone go hand in hand.
On August 2, at 14:00 (China time), OKX Onchain OS recorded 35 mentions of BTC in one hour, including 35 times on X and 0 news reports; The total 24-hour volume was 1,094 times.
After conversion, the latest hour is 0.77 times the hourly average for Long Window, which is about 23% lower than the 24-hour average. This ratio only answers whether discussions have heated up, not whether buying has increased. If you write it directly as a breakout signal, you take an extra step and make an inference that the data does not support.
The structure of tone is another line. 11% bullish in the hour, 43% bearish, and about 46% neutral, indicating a clear bearish advantage; Within the 24-hour period, the trend is 26% bullish and 35% bearish. The gap between the short and long windows is the part worth tracking going forward.
In terms of origin, BTC is currently almost entirely driven by X. When a message is widely shared, mentions quickly increase, but independent information may not necessarily increase year-on-year. The trending list cannot tell us whether each piece of text comes from different participants, nor does it weigh by account influence or fund size.
Long window sources can be used as background: BTC has had 970 times in 24 hours, and 124 news events. If the proportion of sources in one hour suddenly deviates sharply, it could mean new news first broke out on a certain channel, or news updates just haven't caught up yet. Both explanations are reasonable, so we still need to wait for the original announcement or the next round of source distribution confirmation.
I would treat Bullish and Bearish as thermometers under the same ruler, not as exact voting. There is a lot of neutral content, usually just everyone watching and not yet forming a unified direction; An increase in bearish bias may also mean more risk discussions, but it doesn't mean every poster has truly established a short position.
The next step to observe is whether spot trading volume expands, whether perpetual contract funding rates and open interest are moving in the same direction, and whether liquidations are concentrated. These three sets of data answer real trading participation and leverage structure, and cannot be replaced by community mentions. If there are macro or industry events, the official original text should be directly verified.
How did I know I was mistaken this time? If the next round of BTC mentions returns to near the average and the gap between bullish and bearish will narrow, this change will likely be just short-term noise. Conversely, two consecutive rounds of increased speed, expanded news sources, and simultaneous increases in spot and derivatives transactions are more like the main market theme is taking shape.
You also need to keep the intraday difference. The community activity levels differ naturally between early Asian trading, US trading hours, and near major announcements; A single 0.77x is not suitable for annualization, nor should it be used for hard comparisons with raw counts from other platforms. Continuous snapshots are more useful than a single beautiful number.
So I first remember BTC as "discussion slowing down, short window tone clearly favoring the empty tone." The official rankings stop here, with no proof that funds are betting in the same direction. If the next round also improves both the diversity of sources and market transactions, it won't be too late to raise confidence in judgment.In this round of public X searches, discussions about Circle/USDC financial reports are clearly visible, and the Orbit hot topic list also includes it as a focus. But first, let's separate "confirmed" and "market speculation":
1. Circle officially only confirmed: the Q2 2026 financial report will be released on August 5, 2026, with a live explanation at 8:00 AM Eastern Time; this is not the actual performance release.
2. The independent financial calendar also lists CRCL on August 5; the expected values, hot posts, and pre-market sentiment in the calendar cannot replace company disclosures.
3. When reading the financial report, you also need to look at the business fundamentals: Circle's transparency page states that USDC is redeemable 1:1 for USD, with reserves separated from operating funds; external on-chain data can be used to verify circulation and usage changes but cannot be directly equated with profit.
Therefore, this hot topic is more suitable as a "reminder to wait for facts to materialize": before the financial report, only confirm the date and observation framework; after the report, verify changes in issuance volume, on-chain usage, reserve income, and non-reserve revenue. The hype can determine what to explain today, but it is neither a conclusion nor a trading reason. BTC surged to 64,000, with record-breaking security incidents and institutional polarization
BTC breaks through $64,000, Federal Reserve decision sets direction
Bitcoin strongly broke through the $64,000 mark ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, with market sentiment warming across the board. There are three core driving forces: the market is betting on a rate cut in September to boost macro expectations; Bitcoin spot ETFs maintained net inflows, with institutional funds steadily increasing their holdings; On-chain data shows that long-term holders are reluctant to sell, and exchange balances continue to decline. The outcome of the Fed's decision will determine the short-term trajectory—dovish signals may help BTC push to previous highs, while hawks face pullback pressure.
H1 security losses exceed $1 billion, attack patterns escalate
Both Immunefi and Blockaid report that the first half of 2026 will be "the most hacked half-year in history." The cumulative losses exceeded $1 billion, with the number of attacks reaching a record high. Attention should be paid to the shift in attack surface: from smart contract vulnerabilities to key management, signing privileges, and governance mechanisms. AI prompt injection (prompt
injection) has become a new attack vector, with North Korean hacker groups contributing more than half of the losses. Investment in security infrastructure is urgently needed.
Strategy: Halting purchases vs. ETF fundraising, internal institutional fragmentation
Strategy paused Bitcoin purchases for five consecutive weeks, instead selling MSTR stock reserves worth $3.75 billion in cash, marking the longest buying window since 2020. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to attract capital inflows. Institutions show a polarized pattern of "old money waiting, new money entering," and this trend may continue until the Fed clarifies its rate cut path.
The layout window after "Sleeping July."
After experiencing a "slumber July" of low volatility and low trading volume, the market is now waiting for a catalyst. Positive signals of long-term holders increasing positions and low exchange balances coexist with macro uncertainty and security risks. Key variables for August: Fed decision wording, ETF fund flows, whether Strategy resumes BTC purchases. For investors, patience, position control, and waiting for clear signals are the optimal strategies.$BTC Although the probability of a rate hike in September remains at 85%, $ETH the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.74%, $BEAT is running high, but combined with monthly declines in U.S. employment and inflation data, market rate cut expectations are brewing, which will be the core driving force for the Nasdaq's renewed rally in Q4.
The Nasdaq's 25,373 points on August 2 is just a temporary starting point. Once expectations for the Fed's monetary policy shift in Q4 become clear, funds will flood into growth tech stocks. Microsoft, Google, and storage companies will all experience valuation recovery, with storage cyclical stocks like Micron showing particularly notable gains.
Currently, Bitcoin is constrained by the tightening environment and continues to weave together, fluctuating around $62,908. Once easing expectations materialize, the linkage between the two asset classes will gradually recover. With the macro turning point approaching, it is inevitable that the Nasdaq will break its record high in the fourth quarter.📊 Why is this data from August 7 more important than many regular meetings?
Direct basis for the Fed's policy shift: Currently, the Fed's monetary policy is entirely dependent on economic data. After the shocking June nonfarm payroll (with only 57,000 more people), the market is closely watching the July data to determine whether the U.S. economy is experiencing a "soft landing" or a "rapid cooldown."
Setting the tone for September rate cuts: The market currently expects about 85,000 new nonfarm payrolls in July.
If the data > 100,000: indicates an overly strong labor market, which may delay rate cut expectations and put short-term valuation pressure on the stock and crypto markets.
If the data is between 50,000 and 85,000: This falls into the mild "Goldilocks" range, which neither triggers recession fears nor solidifies the foundation for a rate cut in September, which will benefit the rebound in cryptocurrencies and tech stocks.
A prelude to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting: Data from August 7 will directly determine the tone of Powell's speech at the global central bank governors' meeting in late August.
💡 Trader's Operational Memo
Before the August 7 data release, global capital tended to take a wait-and-see approach with reduced volume. It is recommended to reduce derivatives leverage before August 7, maintain ample cash flow, and only add to the right side after the key data is confirmed and the market direction is clear. $NVDA I think Nvidia can't support the overall market; a single company alone can't drive the entire tech sector
$BTC Nvidia's recent performance has been impressive. $ETH has consistently led the Nasdaq in single-day gains, surging 2.93% on August 2 to close at $200.75, single-handedly pushing the index above the 25,373 mark. Many traders in the industry mistakenly believe that the computing power leader can permanently support the entire tech sector. But I don't agree with this logic; a single heavy equity drive is unlikely to sustain a long-term bullish trend in the broader market.
Except for AI computing chips, the upward momentum in consumer electronics, software services, and internet sectors is gradually waning, and sector rotation has completely stalled. 4.74% US Treasury yield suppresses overall liquidity; as long as Nvidia's upward momentum slows, the Nasdaq will immediately lose its upward support. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq fell to 0.28, indirectly confirming the fragile foundation of the broader market's upward momentum.
Over-binding the market to a single leader carries very high risk. Once the positive hash rate is fully realized, the Nasdaq will quickly experience a comprehensive decline.Evening news
1. Cryptocurrency Market Popularity Rankings
- Content:
- HYPE: 51.98 (-0.59%)
- KOMA: 0.01486 (-51.69%)
- GIGGLE: 41.18 (-13.58%)
- BEAT: 4.35 (-6.48%)
- SNDK (data not fully displayed)
- Analysis: Apart from HYPE, which has relatively held up, other tokens (especially KOMA) experienced a halved-like plunge. This reflects the extreme fragility of the current altcoin market sentiment, with strong risk aversion by funds, or that these specific projects have encountered severe selling pressure or negative events. Investors need to be wary of high volatility risks.
2. Polymarket Forecasts Market Data (Bitcoin Trends)
- Content: Data as of August 2:
- The probability that Bitcoin will rise to $70,000 in August is 26%.
- The probability of rising to $65,000 is 80%.
- The probability of dropping to $60,000 is 56%.
- Analysis: This is a very critical signal. Although the probability of a rise to 65,000 is high (80%), the probability of falling below 60,000 is also over 50% (56%). This indicates that the market is currently in an extremely turbulent and volatile range. The divide between bulls and bears is huge; in the short term, Bitcoin may lack clear directional breakout momentum and is more focused on seeking direction amid wide fluctuations.
3. On-chain whale activity (BTC withdrawals)
- Content: OnchainLens monitoring shows that a newly created wallet and related wallets have withdrawn a total of 105.055 BTC (worth about $6.66 million) from the exchange. The largest single withdrawal was 100 tokens (about $6.34 million).
- Analysis: Large withdrawals from exchanges are often seen as signals of bullish or long-term holding (reducing market circulation). But in the current volatile market, this could also mean that major players are collecting on-chain assets or transferring them to cold wallets. Combined with Polymarket data, this may mean that whales are choosing to "lock up" their positions at the current position, waiting for a clearer trend.
4. Geopolitical Breakthrough: Trump cancels planned attack on Iran
- Content: Trump announces the cancellation of planned attacks on Iran. Previously, Iran and its neighboring countries requested a pause, stating that they had reached an agreement on the "agreement framework." The agreement includes the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the nuclear threat. Although the U.S. canceled the attack, it still maintained a "lockdown readiness."
- Analysis: This is huge positive news, especially for global risk assets.
- Cooling of risk aversion: With the clouds of war clearing, safe-haven assets like gold may experience short-term corrections.
- Crude Oil Supply Expectations: If the Strait of Hormuz is fully opened, concerns about oil supply will be eased, and oil prices may come under pressure to fall.
- Stock Market/Crypto Market Positive: Uncertainty is eliminated, facilitating capital re-inflow into stocks and cryptocurrency markets.
5. US-Japan Joint Action Strengthens Yen (Major Macro Bearish Warning)
- Content: The United States and Japan may be preparing a major move to strengthen the yen, expected to be announced tomorrow. If the US sells dollars to buy yen, the dollar will depreciate and the USD/JPY exchange rate will fall.
- Analysis: This is the most explosive macro bombshell in the entire news.
- Arbitrage trade liquidation risk: For a long time, global investors have borrowed low-yield yen to invest in high-yield assets (such as US stocks and Bitcoin). If the yen appreciates sharply, these borrowing costs will surge, forcing investors to sell assets to repay debts.
- Liquidity crisis: This "deleveraging" process could trigger a sharp flash crash in global markets similar to early August 2024.
- Impact on the crypto market: This may trigger panic selling in the short term, as the yen is an important funding currency. However, it should be noted that the depreciation of the dollar provides long-term support for Bitcoin, which is denominated in dollars. The key is whether a "disorderly rise" will occur.
Comprehensive assessment and strategic recommendations
Today's market is in a state of "micro stabilization, macro thunder."
1. Focus on short-term volatility: Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between 60,000 and 65,000; avoid blindly chasing gains and cutting losses.
2. Beware of macro black swans: News of "US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market" is the biggest variable. If there is an official statement tomorrow (August 3) causing the yen to surge sharply, risk control must be done to guard against a spike triggered by liquidity depletion.
3. Watch sector rotation: Against the backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions, sectors affected by war premiums (such as some military-industrial concepts or energy tokens) may pull back, while technology or DeFi assets may benefit from a rebound in risk appetite.
$BTC The biggest shift in crypto isn't happening in price—it's happening in where the profits are going.
Coinbase has now posted losses for three consecutive quarters, while Uniswap is quietly printing money.
【DeFi Protocol · Uniswap】
Coinbase dropped 5.6% in pre-market trading after another disappointing earnings report.
Meanwhile, just three days after Uniswap V4's fee switch went live, protocol revenue nearly tripled—around $325,000 per day flowing into UNI burns. UNI is already up 16% over the past week.
One is fighting to stay profitable.
The other is generating revenue directly on-chain.
So what's the difference?
Coinbase carries thousands of employees, billions in compliance costs, and licensing expenses across multiple jurisdictions.
Uniswap? A few hundred lines of smart contract code and a fee switch.
DEXs are slowly eating into CEX market share with one major advantage: an incredibly low-cost operating model.
This shift didn't happen overnight—but it feels like we've reached an important turning point.
When decentralization starts generating real cash flow, centralized platforms have to work much harder to justify their edge.
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK Today the BRC-20 / Ordinals sector collectively surged. $RATS soared 38% in one day, $SATS rose 15.29%. Can it keep going?
1. The rise is not based on fundamentals but sector rotation; there is no clear project progress or positive news.
2. The trading volume is real, but the turnover is alarming.
The 24h turnover rate for 1000 SATS is 73.58% (the circulating supply has been flipped once), and SATS (Ordinals) trading volume also increased by +40%. But a 73% turnover means pure speculative chips are being heavily rotated, or the market makers are deliberately moving chips from one hand to another.
3. Today $BTC only rose 0.8%, while SATS rose 15%, so it is advised not to chase. Because the leader is RATS, and SATS is the follower. Once RATS loses momentum, the follower will fall even faster. #30YYieldAt19YHigh #SpaceXUnlockLooms #EarningsWeekAhead Currently, BTC
Selling pressure is concentrated near 63.5K
Buying below provides substantial support near 63K
Key support/resistance levels: The price has been repeatedly blocked at a high-leverage liquidation zone, which coincides with last month's VWAP and Monday's low.
My view: This is the first key divergence point, where the market will decide whether to establish bullish momentum or if this is merely the first bearish backtest before the downward continuation.
Main move: Top Binance traders began reducing their positions, which looks more like locking in profits rather than aggressive bearish/long positions.
Spot performance: Spot participation has barely changed, indicating that this wave of the market is mainly driven by perpetual contracts (Perp) and amplified by some short closing (buying highs/stop-losses).
My core focus
Let's first see which side breaks through 63.5k or 63k. More importantly, how prices and capital flows respond after the breakout will determine the short-term market base #Trump's crypto revenue of $1.43 billion, the first full disclosure #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 by a sitting president Top laner is going to overwhelm me, right? I'll short this order for you, just wait! 50 times the deal! 😤
---
[Current Position Status]
🎯 Variety: ETHUSDT
📈 Direction: Short 50x
📊 Average opening price: 1,870.08
📉 Current price: 1,869.57
💰 Floating Profit: +1.41% (just started, not yet strong)
⚠️ Estimated strong parity: 1,898.92 (I've left some room above me, so I'll give you some respect)
[The logic behind this order is straightforward and direct]
Reason 1: 🇮🇷 Trump is stirring up trouble again# The US is planning to strike Iran's energy facilities, and the embassy issues an evacuation warning
Multiple U.S. media outlets have reported that Trump has authorized the U.S. military to launch large-scale military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, planning high-intensity bombing lasting 10 to 14 days. Power plants and refineries are targets, and it is said that Tehran's electricity supply will be cut off.
The U.S. State Department has issued an evacuation warning, advising American citizens in the Middle East to "prepare for a rapid evacuation."
Simply put: whether they will fight or not is unknown, but the market will be scared first.
Reason two: 💴 #美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
The yen has fallen to a 40-year low, and the US Treasury Department can't stand it anymore and has stepped in—selling euros and buying yen through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
This is the first time since 2011 that the United States has directly intervened in the yen exchange rate. Reuters also captured a plan in the finance minister's notebook to "buy 5 to 10 billion yen."
What does this mean for the crypto world?
Yen carry traders are forced to close their positions—those who borrowed yen to buy ETH now have the yen appreciated and must quickly sell ETH to exchange for yen to pay off debts. With liquidity drained, ETH naturally came under pressure.
Simply put: the US is draining the market, and ETH is getting caught in the crossfire.
[Summary]
Geopolitical conflict + liquidity drainage + bear consolidation = ETH under short-term pressure
For this short position, I bet the situation won't ease up so quickly, and liquidity won't return so quickly. Set a stop-loss at 1,898, leave when it arrives, exit when you profit, never linger on the trade.
Ethereum, are you exposing my long positions? I'll take this order for you, just wait and see! 😤
Guys, are you following this wave? Let's talk 👇 in the comments
$ETH Perpetual Motion Dream Shattered and 5 Billion Yuan Dump: MicroStrategy Keeps Months of Zero Coin Purchases, Who Is Quietly Cooling the Treasury?
Everyone sees MicroStrategy as Bitcoin's eternal beacon of faith. But in my eyes, those who still rely on Michael Thaler to issue debt and buy unlimited coins to support you are all using their own capital to pay for Wall Street's debt arbitrage game.
For the past four years, MicroStrategy's (now renamed Strategy) "buy only, not sell" playbooks have been almost the spiritual pillar of the entire crypto bull market. Retail investors see MicroStrategy as a black hole of spot accumulation that will never be filled, believing that as long as it keeps issuing bonds to buy coins, the buying pressure below Bitcoin will never dry up. Everyone firmly believes that MicroStrategy will use its debt spiral to directly push Bitcoin to the sky.
If you are also holding onto this perpetual motion machine belief and are aggressively going long at this critical moment, it means you have completely ignored the metal fatigue voices in Wall Street's capital chain under long-term high interest pressure from the market.
Because the once invincible "buying black hole" has recently quietly reversed its course.
The cold reality revealed in the Q2 financial report has hit all the fanatical believers a wake-up call: MicroStrategy hasn't bought a single Bitcoin for several weeks, and its holdings remain stuck at 843775. Even more shocking, the company has officially established a $5 billion "Bitcoin monetization plan."
Under this plan, MicroStrategy is allowed to sell up to $5 billion of its Bitcoin holdings at any time to pay preferred dividends, repay interest on maturing debts, or even buy back shares for self-rescue.
The totem of faith that claims "never to sell, to be brought to the coffin" has quietly hung the $5 billion smashing sword around the necks of every bull leader.
Moreover, they raised a massive cash reserve of $3.75 billion through a massive share issuance, but instead of spending a penny to buy Bitcoin, they instead bought back $25 million of preferred shares on the secondary market. This indicates that under the pressure of 5.25% high-interest debt, MicroStrategy's financial chain has reached a critical juncture where it must dynamically contract and defend its cash system.
In the past, when I traded, like many retail investors, whenever I saw Seller posting another coin buying post on Twitter, I felt like I had found the steel Maginot line at the bottom, excitedly running to open leveraged long positions above $64,000. It wasn't until this week's market pullback that I forced myself to look at their Q2 financial cash flow statement. Seeing them holding $3.7 billion in cash but having zero coin purchases for weeks and even launching a $5 billion coin sell plan, I broke out in a cold sweat and immediately closed all leveraged positions and chose to withdraw from the position.
Capital is snobbish; once the Wall Street arbitrage spiral can't bear the weight of high-interest debt, perpetual motion machines instantly become shredders for sell-offs.
See the micro-strategy clearly, start saving money, defend, and prepare to sell your tokens. Don't use your meager leverage to act as a pawn for the cash out and retreat of major Wall Street shareholders before cracks appear in Saylor's debt building.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard The latest news suggests that the United States and Japan may be preparing a major move. Coin Bureau revealed that the two countries may join forces tomorrow to intervene in the foreign exchange market, forcibly supporting the yen exchange rate by selling dollars and buying yen. If this is really done, the dollar depreciates and the USD/JPY exchange rate plunges, which would logically be good news for gold, Bitcoin, and tech stocks.
But the strange part is right here. The rapid rise of the yen could very likely suddenly break the world's largest arbitrage rope. It's important to note that massive amounts of funds have been borrowing almost zero-cost yen in the market, then frantically buying high-yield stocks and cryptocurrencies worldwide. If the yen suddenly surges, these arbitrage traders are forced to close their positions urgently and frantically sell off their assets to pay back the yen. This kind of stampede escape will actually drag the stock market and crypto world down first.
Success depends on the day, and failure depends on the day. If the yen rises slowly and lullingly, then it is indeed sustainably positive for risk assets; But if it were a chaotic and chaotic surge, it could ignite a global wave of asset sell-offs. So, the key now is how fast they can shoot this time and whether they can control the tempo. $BTC Many people are discussing the merger of $SPCX and $TSLA, with several analysts giving an 80% chance of merging. So, what does the merge mean for SPCX?
First and foremost, the most straightforward is the stock price. Tesla's current price is about 1.2 trillion and SPCX's current price, and after the merger, its valuation could reach 3-4 trillion USD, which will drive both stocks upward.
The likelihood of completing the merger in 2026 is low, and the problems it brings also affect the stock price. If SPCX leads the acquisition of Tesla, then the dilution of shares and the slow profit model of SPCX will make shareholders willing to sell.
As for the current SPCX stock price, with the first unlocking and earnings report approaching, and with heightened panic, a merger may not necessarily be a good thing and could drag Tesla's stock down in the short term. #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted GIGGLE's biggest recent conflict isn't whether it will rise, but whether it can still escape the "Meme valuation" issue.
In recent days, many people have refocused on GIGGLE.
The reason is simple:
A token that looks like a meme keeps generating real capital flows.
Many Memes end with just one sentence, a meme, or a wave of emotion.
But the biggest difference with GIGGLE is that it ties trading activities with charity funds.
A portion of the funds generated from each transaction goes to the Giggle Fund to support educational programs related to Giggle Academy.
This mechanism sets it apart from ordinary memes.
Because most Meme's value capture logic is:
Some people buy → prices rise → more people buy.
The core of the cycle is emotion.
And GIGGLE tried to add another layer:
Some trade → generate funds → support practical uses.
Sounds good, but problems arise.
If trading activity declines in the future, can this model be sustained?
This is where I think the market really needs to be observed.
Because the public welfare mechanism itself is not a source of value.
What truly determines the long-term value of a token is whether there is ongoing demand.
If people buy GIGGLE just because of a "charity story," then at its core, it's still an emotional transaction.
But if in the future it can form a stable community, sustained trading demand, and stronger ecosystem connections, then it may gradually evolve from a trending meme into a new experimental model.
The current market valuation actually includes two parts:
Part of it is the emotional premium of memes;
Another part is the imagination of the model of "transactions generating public value."
If either of these two parts cools down, the price will be affected.
So my view is simple:
I won't deny it just because it's a meme.
But they wouldn't treat it as a value investment just because it's a charity business.
The truly interesting question is:
Can a token without traditional products create new value through mechanism innovation?
GIGGLE now provides an experimental answer.
But the final answer depends on time.
DYOR。 $GIGGLE I know only two people who made ten thousand times their profits. One went in, the other almost went in.
The first was a JC in Xi'an, who invested 20,000 yuan on OKB and posted over 200 million yuan in the group chat about his account. Back then, he was generous, sending out red envelopes so much that we were all tired. I helped him withdraw funds for several months and managed to make tens of millions. Then this guy suddenly realized—with his status, with so much money lying in his account, how could he explain it to the organization? He even asked us to buy the coins back for him. After that, there was no more news, and he stopped posting on his Moments.
The second is the leader of the group, a professional player with assets just over 100 million. He once told us: "If I study for three years, I'd be better off than someone buying a random sucker." But what was impressive was that when he dealt with the director of a local judicial bureau, the other party lost money and tried to default, calling him a fraudster. This lawsuit lasted over a year, and he managed to hire a lawyer and win. You see, making that money isn't easy—not only does it have to fight the market, but also people.
You say luck outweighs effort, and I believe it. But effort determines whether you can handle luck when it comes.
That boss shouted 'get on board with ETH' at 1200, then shouted again at 1800. The latter one was indeed wrong, he'd get stuck as he said. But overall, he made a profit. If he made a mistake once, his position would only lose 5%; If he got it right, his position doubled. That's the real professional way to play.
What about me? For the first two years, I made steadily, not the best, but better than the worst. But last year, the platform ran away, and after two years of profit plus principal, it was wiped out overnight. There's another brother in the group who's even worse—he chased after a big shot and lost over 20 million, losing all his luxury cars and houses.
So you ask me, what would I do if I made ten thousand times my profit?
To be honest, I used to think about it. Buy a villa, leave the group, block all the order instructors. But now I don't think about it.
Because now I understand—in crypto, how much you earn doesn't matter; what matters is how much you can truly "take away."
Did that JC take it? No. Did the boss take it? No, he's still fighting inside.
I've never seen anyone actually take it. Maybe they've long since disappeared, won't send red envelopes in groups, and won't teach others how to get rich.
As for your claim that "a group of people make money long-term," I believe you. But we all know—when the bull market comes, Brother Dog can make money; When the bear market comes, Brother Dog turns into a dog.
I have one principle right now: if the exchange closes tomorrow, my position won't keep me awake.
If you can't do this, no matter how much you earn, it's just fireworks on paper.
Let's encourage each other. In this circle, it's much harder to survive longer than to make money.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is about to be lifted. #财报观察员: Next Thursday's lottery draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale August 2nd Bitcoin/Ethereum Early Trading Strategy: Technical Rebound and Short Selling Opportunities in a Bearish Landscape
Currently, BTC is trading near $62,979, while ETH is quoted at $1,880. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has formed a bearish "head and shoulders" pattern, with MACD running below the zero axis, and the bearish pattern remains unchanged. August was the weakest month in Bitcoin's history, with a median decline of -7.87%. ETF inflows plummeted from a July high of $197 million to $33.79 million, a decrease of 83%, indicating a clear cooling of institutional demand. Although Trump's remarks stimulated the market in the short term, they lacked substantial policy support and were typical examples of a "news-driven ineffective rebound." In terms of strategy, BTC is positioned near 63,500 and ETH near 1,880, targeting the 61,000-62,000 and 1,780-1,820 ranges respectively.
1. Market Review: From a Sharp Drop to a Message-Driven Technical Rebound
In the early hours, Bitcoin dipped to a low of around $62,200, while Ethereum hit a low of $1,820, making the overall downside clearly visible. Subsequently, the market briefly surged thanks to Trump's statements supporting cryptocurrency, but this news-driven rebound was essentially "ineffective empty talk"—lacking practical policy implementation and capital support, it was difficult to reverse the established technical trend.
Looking back at recent trends, two large bearish candlesticks with massive volume appeared consecutively on the daily chart, indicating strong selling pressure in the market and confirming a short- to medium-term downtrend. On the 4-hour chart, although the price rebounded quickly after two large bearish candlesticks with increased volume, the overall price remains within a downward channel. The early morning candlestick has a long lower shadow, indicating some buying support at low levels, but this seems more like a technical correction after short profit-taking, rather than a signal of a trend reversal.
From a broader perspective, after reaching an all-time high of $124,457 in August 2025, Bitcoin has entered a year-long volatile downward cycle. In January 2026, the price briefly dropped to the $60,000 mark, then rebounded to around $80,000 in April, but failed to break above the resistance of the 200-day moving average (around $75,112), turning downward again. This structure of "highs continuously moving downward and lows gradually dipping" is a typical bear market characteristic.
2. In-depth Technical Analysis: Key Signals in a Bearish Pattern
2.1 Bitcoin: Head and shoulders top pattern confirmed, neckline precarious
Looking at the three-day moving average, Bitcoin has been operating in a "head and shoulders top" pattern since early March. The left shoulder formed in March-April (about $82,000), the head appeared in May (about $84,000), and the right shoulder is forming (currently around $66,000). The theoretical downside target for this classic bearish pattern is the neckline (around $68,000) minus the vertical distance from the head to the neckline, which is roughly the $41,000-$54,000 range.
In terms of key support and resistance, $60,965 marks the lower boundary of the recent range of volatility and serves as the last line of defense for bulls. If this level is breached, the $54,000 neckline area will be directly tested below. Once the neckline is effectively broken, technical selling could push the price deeper into the water. On the resistance side, $66,885 is the high zone for the right-shoulder rebound and is also a key defensive position for bears; Above is $76,118, which is a key threshold for bulls to regain momentum.
On the technical indicators, on the 4-hour chart, both the DIF and DEA lines are below the zero line, with the DIF line below the DEA line. The MACD histogram is negative, indicating the market is in a bearish trend. Although the negative value of the latest MACD histogram has narrowed, possibly signaling a slowdown in the short term, the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. The RSI indicator is at 43.8, in the neutral to weak zone, not yet in the oversold zone, indicating there is still room for price downside.
2.2 Ethereum: More Significant Volatility, Weak Rebound Unlikely to Reverse Decline
Ethereum's technical form is weaker than Bitcoin's. From the 2025 high of $3,400 to the current $1,880, a decline of over 44%. $2,000 serves as a key psychological barrier, turning into strong resistance after multiple tests. The current price is running below this threshold, indicating a lack of bullish confidence.
On the 4-hour chart, ETH also showed negative MACD performance, with trading volume significantly amplified during the decline, further confirming heavy selling pressure. Although the long lower shadow in the early morning showed buying at low levels, the rebound was limited and failed to reclaim the $1,900 mark, indicating that bullish strength remains weak.
Observing on-chain data, Ethereum's gas fees remain sluggish, network activity is declining, and DeFi protocol TVL (total value staked) has shrunk significantly compared to its peak. These fundamental factors resonate with technical factors, reinforcing the bearish logic.
3. Macro and capital flow: ETF inflows have plummeted, cooling institutional demand
3.1 Trump's Remarks: Short-term stimulus, ineffective in the long term
Trump has recently repeatedly expressed support for cryptocurrencies, stating that "the U.S. has no choice but to lead the cryptocurrency industry," and emphasized the need to maintain its "number one position in the cryptocurrency field." These remarks indeed boosted market sentiment in the short term, with Bitcoin briefly surging above $63,500 after his statement.
However, a deeper analysis reveals that this kind of "empty talk" positive news lacks substance. On one hand, the Trump family's previously issued "TRUMP" meme coin caused nearly a million investors to lose about $3.81 billion, significantly eroding market trust in their crypto promises. On the other hand, attempts by U.S. politicians to "recruit" cryptocurrencies and integrate them into national strategy have structural conflicts with the core pillars of blockchain technology's "decentralization" and "censorship resistance." As Wall Street tries to turn it into a new financial weapon, this infrastructure is inevitably eroding the effectiveness of traditional sanctions.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is about to be lifted. #财报观察员: Next Thursday's lottery draw, Circle will be the grand finale$BTC $ETH $SOL [ZRO: The most exciting move in cross-chain narratives finally hits valuation face] If in the last cycle everyone was still discussing "which chain will win," now a harsher question has emerged: with more and more chains, increasingly fragmented capital, and lazier users, only the infrastructure that can truly connect these isolated islands might capture the next big wave of money. This is why I want to talk about ZRO today. Its underlying LayerZero is not an ordinary application, nor is it simply telling a new public chain story; it is doing something very bold: enabling different chains to communicate as if they were one system. It sounds abstract, but if this direction succeeds, the underlying logic of cross-chain assets, cross-chain transactions, cross-chain governance, cross-chain gaming, and even multi-chain DeFi will be rewritten. But the most controversial aspect of ZRO lies here. Many people, at first glance, immediately think of two words: airdrop. A large number of users interact just for the airdrop, causing the project’s popularity to explode, but when the token launches, the market’s first reaction is often not faith but cashing out. So the question arises: is ZRO a leader in infrastructure, or a cash machine for airdrop hunters? I think this question cannot be judged solely by short-term price but should be broken down into three layers. The first layer is the technical position. Cross-chain communication is a genuine demand, not a fake one. The multi-chain pattern has already formed, and in the future, it’s impossible for all assets to crowd onto a single chain. As long as multi-chain continues to exist, cross-chain protocols will have long-term demand. The second layer is ecosystem binding. The real value of LayerZero is not "canFundamental Research Report $HNT / Helium (DePIN) $3.20
To summarize: Helium ($HNT) has an overall score of 49/100, rated as an early-stage project, with insufficient validation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's look at projects first: Helium (token $HNT), DePIN track. Focusing on wireless network DePIN leaders. Benchmarking against GRASS and IoT. Traditional computing power leasing is done by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by GPU hour. A100 monthly rent is $12,000–$25,000, expensive and has a high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power through bidding, so suppliers don't need centralized review, turning idle GPUs into usable supply. Average order price is $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven track, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product launch: protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees are accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
On the user side, address MAU is not disclosed, DAU is not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active individuals; concentrated holdings of large addresses overestimate actual user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy and burn annualized without a burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profits do not equal protocol profits, protocol profits do not equal token holders profit. Code side: 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look at PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, refer to whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level but do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs; for technical integration, see API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. Using NVIDIA GPUs does not mean NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not mean strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (accounting for +3.50% circulating volume), burn buyback annualized rate No clear buyback burn. Must you buy coins to use the product? Some need to capture medium value (staking/discounting/governance). Looking at it together with peers (unified standard, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market cap, Helium $3.00B, GRASS undisclosed, IOT not disclosed. FDV: Helium $4.20B, GRASS undisclosed, IOT not disclosed. Annualized revenue: Helium $2.00M, GRASS not disclosed, IOT not disclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Helium not disclosed, GRASS not disclosed, IOT not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; some omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% of the original price, fluctuating in a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burns land, enterprise clients enter, FDV P/S aligns with the top. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative dominated (score 49/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high compared to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risks to note: short-term large unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives end, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. The above is the logic and judgment of public information and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Core financial indicators deviate by more than 30%, conclusions need to be re-evaluated.
That's all for now. If you have any thoughts, see you in the comments.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitThe previous research note discussed Coinbase's business boundaries. From spot trading to stablecoins, custody, staking, lending, and on-chain infrastructure, Coinbase is clearly more than just a US-compliant exchange. But just because its business is growing more doesn't mean its revenue structure has fully transformed. What really matters is to ask: After developing so many new businesses, are transaction fees still its main source of revenue? My judgment is also clear: Coinbase has broken free from its single-point dependence on crypto spot trading fees, but it has not broken free from overall dependence on trading activity and the crypto cycle. Trading fees are no longer the only source of income, but they remain the most important profit driver. 1. Coinbase was once a fee machine. Let's go back to the last bull market. In the second quarter of 2021, Coinbase's trading revenue was about $1.93 billion, while subscription and service revenue was only about $100 million What does trading revenue account for nearly 95% of net income—what does this mean? At that time, Coinbase's business model could almost be summed up in one sentence: the bull market came, users started trading frantically, and Coinbase followed to make money; The bear market arrives, trading volume drops sharply, and both revenue and profits shrink. The market decides how many people are willing to trade, and Coinbase decides how much fee it can cut from these trades. This model is strong in bull markets because new trading income doesn't require CoinbaseI actually thought Saudi Arabia had already solved this problem. After the Strait of Hormuz became a "hostage" in the Iranian standoff, they quietly devised an alternative plan: to switch to transporting crude oil via the Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, then push it through the "Petroline" pipeline, thereby completely bypassing Hormuz. At first, the plan seemed stable. Last week completely shattered that assumption.
On July 25, the Houthis directly struck the Jizan refinery and Yanbu, pushing Brent crude prices back above $100. This is not just another headline about the Middle East. Yanbu is precisely the channel that has allowed about 92% of Saudi crude oil exports to continue flowing even after Hormuz has been effectively neutralized. Now, with the Houthis incorporating the Bab al-Mandeb Strait into their maritime blockade, Saudi Arabia truly has no second open corridor that remains open. Kpler tracking data shows that Yanbu's vessel loading volume has dropped by about 30%, and some tankers have even "disappeared" signals to cover up this gap.
What I find interesting is that the cryptocurrency market still seems not to factor in this risk in its pricing. Whenever we see a shock in oil supply, this pattern repeats: inflationary pressures accumulate, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts shrinks, and risk assets are impacted. Altcoins usually react first, while BTC tends to lag behind. If this blockade continues and the extended terminals or pipelines are directly hit again, this will no longer be a simple "oil price story" but will evolve into a broader "risk aversion" event for the market.
If this upgrade continues, do you think BTC will see a pullback first, or will it be an altcoin?SK Hynix rose 17.52%, SanDisk rose 25.99%, Micron rose 18.36%, Microsoft gained 15.51%, and even the VIX Fear Index fell 17.28% in a single day. Just a few days ago, the memory chip sector, which was in turmoil, has staged a stunning reversal overnight.
Such a rebound has never been driven by a single factor. It is the result of multiple forces resonating among South Korea's market rescue, U.S. inflation cooling, Microsoft's earnings, and short squeezes. But before getting excited, there's a question to clarify: is this the start of a reversal, or a standard reprieve?
After several consecutive days of sharp declines, the Korea Exchange (KRX) has internally assessed the technical feasibility and system preparation time for temporarily banning short selling, while also reviewing the feasibility of narrowing the current 30% price limit. South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance also held an "Emergency Market Situation Assessment Meeting," after which it stated it would maintain the highest level of market vigilance and activate a 24-hour cross-departmental monitoring mechanism.
This rescue operation is also politically sensitive. The South Korean government had previously actively encouraged retail investors to join the AI chip stock boom led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Now, retail investors suffered huge losses within 48 hours, putting the authorities in a dilemma—regardless of public opinion, they couldn't bear it; but also afraid of interfering with market pricing.
Because of this, the measures introduced this time appear quite sincere. The anticipated short-selling ban combined with discussions of narrowing price fluctuations can significantly limit short-term selling pressure. For the market, this means at least one thing: the policy bottom has already appeared before the market bottom.My conclusion first: this round of GRVT is more like cross-platform price turnover in the early stages of launch, not that the market has already formed a unified short position. Falling prices are real, and so is the concentration of transactions; But OKX is unwinding, while Binance and Bybit are increasing positions at low levels. Continuing to chase the dip may actually mean worrying about position squeeze. Data as of 17:00 on August 2 (Beijing time). In the completed minute sample from 05:01 to 16:59 in this round, OKX spot dropped from 0.28012 to 0.26060, a decrease of 6.97%, with a turnover of about 18.476 million USDT. The most notable event occurred from 15:00 to 15:59: single-hour transactions reached 13.279 million yuan, accounting for 71.9% of the entire window, with the lowest price at 0.25081. KuCoin's peer declined about 7.4%, with similar directions and magnitudes, so a single platform's bad price can be ruled out. Before the strict window ended, multiple GRVT views had already appeared in Planet search results. Some claimed to be selling proactively, while others suspected market making or airdrop resale. The popularity is real, but these posts only show that disagreements are heating up and cannot replace causal evidence. Position structure is more useful than sentiment. From 05:05 to 17:00, OKX perpetual coin-margined open interest dropped from about 10.741 million to 10.475 million tokens, a decrease of 2.47%. At 16:00, the funding rate shifted to -0.04152%; Binance's price declines were similar, with open interest increasing by 12.8% and Bybit up 18.0%, while Bybit's funding rate remains around +0.Don't be fooled by financial report numbers! Behind the adjustment of depreciation maturities, the tech AI cycle is experiencing a key shift. #Depreciation period extended to 25 years, Microsoft lowers capital expenditure guidance
The vast majority only see the surface positives: capital expenditure cuts = slowing cash burning, profit improvement, and directly chasing Microsoft.
But few see through the core truth: this adjustment is not about cutting AI investment, but a set of compliant accounting and bookkeeping adjustments, a financial shift under the pressure of the AI arms race, short-term beautification of financial statements, and long-term hidden risks.
1. First, clarify the underlying facts of the incident
Microsoft's two major simultaneous adjustments:
1. The depreciation life for data centers and office buildings has been extended from 15 years to 25 years;
2. The capital expenditure guidance for fiscal year 2027 has been lowered from $190 billion to $175 billion.
Management clarified that excluding changes in accounting rules, the actual scale of investment in physical computing power and data center construction has not decreased, and subsequent infrastructure investment will continue to grow.
Many traders confuse a key point:
Extending the depreciation period for building assets means that GPUs and server hardware will continue to maintain their original depreciation cycles, and the two should not be confused.
The physical lifespan of data center buildings can reach 20-30 years, with reasonable accounting adjustments based on reasonable basis; However, the main point of market debate is that, during a cycle of sustained massive AI investments, the timing of adjustments is purposeful.
A simple breakdown of accounting logic
Extending the depreciation period → reducing annual depreciation expenses → passively boosting book operating profit.
Additionally, a large number of data center leases have shifted from financial leasing to operating leases, no longer included in capital expenditure statistics, directly causing CAPEX figures to "appear to decline."
Cash outflows have not decreased at all, but the cost recognition period has been delayed.
2. There are three major misconceptions in the market
❌ Misconception 1: Capital expenditure cuts = Microsoft reduces AI investment
Wrong! The shrinkage of CAPEX book figures is a change in the accounting method.
This quarter, single-quarter capital expenditure reached $41 billion, a significant year-on-year increase, with a large amount of capital continuously flowing into Azure computing clusters.
AI demand remains tight, and Microsoft has no conditions to proactively scale back its computing power layout.
❌ Misconception 2: Depreciation extension = permanent improvement in profitability
Wrong! Depreciation is a non-cash cost.
Net profit on paper looks better, but free cash flow does not improve at all.
Profits are just redistributed across cycles, not truly earning more cash.
❌ Misconception 3: Imitating peers means the industry is nearing the end of investment
It cannot be generalized.
Google and Meta previously adjusted server depreciation, focusing more on hardware; Microsoft's adjustment this time is more focused on building assets.
Fundamental signal: Continued high investment erodes profits, and tech giants are proactively optimizing their financial expectations to reassure secondary market funds worried about "unlimited cash burn."
3. Breakdown of the core logic of both long and short layers
✅ Bullish support logic
1. Easing market anxiety: Previously, investors' biggest concern was endless computing power investment suppressing profit margins. After the adjustment, short-term earnings earnings expectations are supported, supporting valuations;
2. Financial rules are compliant, with no risk of violations, and institutional funds are willing to accept changes in this accounting estimate;
3. Azure and Copilot commercialization continue to materialize, with revenue growth offsetting infrastructure cost pressures;
4. Capital expenditure expectations have cooled, dispelling pessimistic pricing of "endless capital eating up cash flow."
⚠️ Potential shorting risk
1. Long-term "deferred depreciation risks": If future industry cycles decline and data center utilization falls short of expectations, long-term depreciation pressure will persist for years to suppress profits;
2. Distinguish asset attributes: Buildings can be used for 25 years, but internal AI chips face iteration and obsolescence after 3-5 years. Hardware continues to be updated, and long-term capital expenditure pressure will not disappear;
3. Creating a demonstration effect: If major cloud providers concentrate on using accounting adjustments to beautify short-term financial reports, once a unified revision is made, it will trigger a round of collective earnings revisions;
4. Narrative turning point signal: When giants begin to optimize their financial statements through accounting methods, it indirectly shows that relying solely on revenue growth to absorb huge investments is becoming increasingly difficult.The attacker did not steal the device, did not get the mnemonic phrase, and did not even touch the victim's wallet. What was broken was the "unpredictability" that this mnemonic phrase was originally meant to possess. As of now, Galaxy Research has found through on-chain transaction aggregation that about 1,082.65 BTC were transferred out within 6 blocks and 41 minutes, involving 1,196 addresses, amounting to approximately $70 million at the time. This is still a dynamic estimate from on-chain research institutions, not the final loss announced by Coinkite; 1,196 addresses do not equal 1,196 independent victims. But the vulnerability itself has been officially confirmed, and the risks go beyond just theory. The most important thing to watch out for is that the entire attack process does not require connecting cold wallets to the internet. Cold wallets are cold, but seeds may not be secure from birth. Hardware wallets mainly do three things: generate seeds, store private keys, and sign transactions. Not connecting to the internet can protect the latter two things, but it cannot automatically guarantee that the first thing is always correct. A normal mnemonic phrase should be like a random ticket drawn from a pool of numbers so large it's almost inexhaustible. The problem this time was: the device seemed to be still generating random results, but the actual number pool used was much smaller than expected. Attackers don't need to enter your home or get the equipment. He only needs to batch test candidate seeds on his own computer, then check whether the corresponding address holds BTC. As long as the search space is small enough, so-called "never-connected private keys" can still be found. One exists for fiveBTC 주도 국면 속 자금 선택성 극대화, 약세 종목과 회전 기대 종목의 온도 차가 핵심 변수다 상대 강도가 뚜렷해진 지금, 시장 자금이 어디로 이동하고 어디서 이탈하는지가 향후 수익률을 결정하는 기준이 될 수 있을까? 최근 시장에서 확인된 핵심 사실은 유동성의 분배 방식이 바뀌었다는 점이다. 전체 시장을 동시에 끌어올리는 광범위한 상승이 아니라, 이미 검증된 자산에 자본이 집중되는 선택적 국면이다. 이는 위험선호가 완전히 꺼진 것이 아니라, 특정 종목으로 수익 기회가 압축되는 구조를 의미한다. 현재 구조를 상대 강도 기준으로 보면 BTC가 시장의 앵커 역할을 유지하며 신규 유동성의 가장 큰 몫을 흡수하고 있다. ETH는 기관 수요가 꾸준히 유입되며 시장의 신뢰 자산 지위를 공고히 하고 있고, SOL은 위험선호 회복 시 가장 먼저 반응하는 모멘텀 종목으로 자리 잡았다. WLD는 AI 내러티브가 지속적으로 투자자 관심을 끌면서 독자적인 수요층을 형성 중이다. DOGE와 ZEC는 소매 #财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴
Circle will release its Q2 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026, and hold a conference call. As a leading stablecoin issuer listed on the US stock market, Circle's earnings report is an important window to observe the digital dollar ecosystem, reserve yield models, and regulatory progress.
Circle's core business model heavily depends on the circulation scale of USDC and the yield from reserve assets. The company primarily allocates the US dollar reserves backing USDC into short-term US Treasury bonds and cash equivalents to earn interest spreads, while gradually diversifying revenue through subscription services, transaction fees, and other income.
Reviewing the previous quarter's performance, Q1 2026 total revenue and reserve income combined reached $694 million, a 20% year-over-year increase. Reserve income was $653 million, up 17% year-over-year, mainly driven by a 39% growth in average USDC circulation, partially offset by a 66 basis point decline in reserve yield. Other income was $42 million, showing significant year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA reached $151 million, up 24% year-over-year. USDC circulation at quarter-end was $77 billion, up 28% year-over-year; on-chain transaction volume reached $21.5 trillion, a substantial 263% year-over-year increase. USDC's share of stablecoin transaction volume has risen to approximately 63%.
Entering Q2, market consensus expectations for performance roughly range from $700 million to $740 million in total revenue (including reserve income), with EPS around $0.17 to $0.22.
We should focus on the following key dimensions:
First, the average and quarter-end USDC circulation. It was $77 billion at the end of Q1, with a phased decline in circulation observed entering Q2 and July, with recent market data around $72 billion. It is necessary to observe whether net redemptions are due to crypto market volatility, exchange fund outflows, or seasonal factors, and whether institutional custody and payment scenarios continue to support the scale.
Second, reserve yield. The current federal funds target rate range remains at 3.50% to 3.75%. Yield pressure was already evident in Q1. If the Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate environment, it will continue to support reserve income; if market expectations shift toward rate cuts, it will directly pressure core profits.
Third, other income and platform business progress. This includes subscription and service income, transaction-related income, CPN network transaction volume, as well as new business contributions from the Arc network, tokens, and the Agent Stack aimed at the AI-native economy. These projects are key paths for the company to reduce sensitivity to interest rates.
Fourth, costs and profit margins. Operating expenses rose significantly in Q1, including factors such as post-IPO stock compensation. The market will watch for expense discipline and whether economies of scale begin to emerge.
The company has also made positive recent progress. On July 31, it obtained a limited purpose trust license from the New York Department of Financial Services, having previously received final approval from the OCC National Trust Bank, further strengthening its moat as a regulated stablecoin issuer. It also completed the acquisition of IBM's blockchain patent portfolio and continues to advance the Arc network and AI Agent infrastructure. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the July meeting, with market divergence on the subsequent path. High rates benefit reserve income, but if economic data trigger rate cut expectations, that will be the biggest variable.
Key risks include the direct impact of rate declines on reserve income, competition with USDT and share battles in emerging payment scenarios, legislative details such as the Clarity Act potentially affecting revenue distribution models, crypto market volatility's linkage to USDC demand, and significant stock price fluctuations since the IPO.
Overall, Circle's Q2 earnings will verify two things: first, the real growth resilience of USDC in institutional and compliant scenarios; second, whether the company can continue to improve profitability quality under interest rate and cost pressures while accelerating the proportion of other income. If circulation remains stable or rebounds, reserve yields meet expectations, and new businesses make substantive progress, it will strengthen the market's long-term logic for regulated digital dollar infrastructure. Conversely, if circulation continues to shrink or costs spiral out of control, short-term stock price pressure may increase. 💡 Core viewpoint: Refined defense, focus on liquidity
1. Bottom-fishing defense: Trading space for survival
Bottom-fishing near 1000, hard stop loss (999-930), easily shaken out by a hollow break. Defense should be layered:
900 points (first defense): If it falls below 972, there is a high probability of braking at 930. 900 points only reduced interest by 20%.
< 850 Strong Tie Line (Second Defense): Keep the tie below 850, completely immune to the 900-999 gap gap.
2. The harsh truth about liquidity: precise team-up
The market is extremely picky, and funds no longer rise broadly. Stocks like $BEAT are not just building momentum, but falling behind completely.
🔥 Capital inflows: $JTO, $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $ALLO, $CHIP
❄️ Capital outflows: $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $VIRTUAL
👀 Watchlist: $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS 3.
Leading Stock Landscape Hard Map: $ETH Timing to Buy the Dip?
When a coin is everywhere, smart money has already eaten the meat. Currently, $ETH is in a left-side bottom-fishing phase, ignored by retail investors and quietly accumulating shares by institutions.
Core assets: $BTC Stabilizing liquidity and $ETH attracting institutional funds.
High-Burst Vanguard: $SOL is the strongest Beta option; $TAO + $WLD dominates the AI narrative.
Sentiment indicators: $HYPE reflects risk appetite, $DOGE + $ZEC represents retail sentiment.
4. Macro Storm: U.S. Treasuries remain high, negative news has all been exhausted
U.S. Treasury yields hit a 19-year high: liquidity continues to tighten, and funds will only band together to strengthen the narrative.
Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, but rises 9%: classic negative news is gone. Market expectations have hit bottom, and real buying decisions determine everything.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale At 3 a.m., I stared at the liquidation map and suddenly realized this round of decline wasn't just news-based. Have you ever wondered why, for the same geopolitical news, the US stock futures haven't even moved yet, but the crypto world has already collapsed? To start with the conclusion: the most vulnerable link in the market has never been spot trading, but the leverage of derivatives piling up. At this time last night, BTC suddenly broke through 62,500 and quickly recovered. On the surface, it seemed like a sudden negative news from the US-Iran conflict, but if you look at the liquidation data, you'll find that a large number of long positions are densely accumulating in the 62,000-62,500 range. Once triggered at this level, it triggers a chain reaction of liquidations. BTC is now back above 62,500, but don't be too quick to relax. What truly deserves attention is not the price itself, but the change in open interest at this level. If open interest decreases instead of increasing during the rebound, it indicates that the rebound is driven by short covering, not by new bull entries. Market liquidity was as thin as a cicada's wing over the weekend, and any news could be magnified into a large bearish candlestick. ETH's situation is even more intriguing. After breaking below the 1850 support, the low reached 1820, but after rebounding but unable to rise above 1850, this is itself a weak signal. On the daily chart, the MA20 is showing clear suppression, with 1890 marking the dividing line between bulls and bears. On the counterfeit side, SOL's monthly chart with ten consecutive losses is already quite rare; this level of weakness can't be fixed in just a day or two. Cross-market collaboration is the highlight today. The Korean market hasn't opened yet, and US stock futures haven't reacted, but the crypto world has already fallen first. What does this indicate? This explains this77,402 $BTC from older UTXO bands has moved since the Coldcard seed phrase bug became public.
The biggest takeaway? People are not ignoring the risk. They’re acting.#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning
Trump said Iran requested a pause, and the Iranian military called this a "new lie."
On August 1, Trump posted on social media that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had requested the U.S. to temporarily halt the attack. According to him, the parties have already formed a preliminary framework for the agreement, including the immediate and full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as addressing the Iranian nuclear issue; He therefore agreed to cancel the original military operation, but provided the agreement could be finalized quickly, and Israel would make the same commitment.
However, according to Xinhua News Agency citing a report by the Mehr News Agency on August 2, an Iranian military official said that Trump's claim that "Iran demanded a halt to the attack" is a new lie. The official stated that whether the U.S. continues to act or retreats, Iranian forces remain on top alert. Previously, Iranian Foreign Minister Alagazi also warned the U.S. through intermediaries against "risky actions," stating that Iran would respond firmly to any infringement.
Currently, no third party has publicly confirmed whether Iran has directly made the request, nor has there been any sign of the agreement text, formal negotiation schedule, or arrangements for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
But the Strait of Hormuz is the most direct verification line.
Xinhua News Agency cited data from the shipping platform stating that on July 30, the number of vessels passing through the strait dropped from 22 the previous day to 5, a decrease of 77%. Although the channel has not completely cut off flow, safety risks, insurance costs, and detour pressures have already affected crude oil transportation. If the so-called agreement framework is implemented, vessel traffic, tanker insurance fees, and Gulf crude oil exports should improve first; If the channel remains restricted and the alert status is not lifted, then the "cancellation operation" is more like a conditional pause, with the risk not truly gone.
During the current weekend, crude oil, gold, and US stocks have yet to see a new round of pricing. According to OKX spot market data, as of 14:00 Beijing time on August 2, $BTC was about 63,455 USDT, up about 0.67% in 24 hours. The crypto market has not experienced synchronized panic, but the performance of crypto assets is insufficient to represent that energy and global risk assets have accepted the ceasefire narrative.
Therefore, whether the final cooling can shift from verbal easing to actual easing depends on whether the middle party confirms the framework of the agreement, whether the U.S. continues to cancel its original actions, whether Hormuz navigation can resume, and whether a timetable for formal negotiations is provided.