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#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Key data: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, a new 19-year high, with long-term yields continuing to climb.
Underlying logic: The US government issued large bonds but lacked sufficient funds to take over; combined with oil prices supporting inflation and the strong resilience of the AI economy, the market fully priced in high interest rates for the long term, while short-term rate cut expectations were completely dashed.
Impact on the crypto sector: Long-term bonds with high yields continue to pump market liquidity, suppressing risk asset valuations. This is the core reason why recent positive market conditions have not risen, rebounds are weak, and the market continues to bottom out.
Trading approach: Macro liquidity is relatively tight, with no one-sided bull market opportunities. Maintain cautious observation, avoid blindly speculating on rebounds, and patiently wait for interest rate turning points and liquidity recovery before making arrangements.
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
These represent only personal views and do not constitute investment advice.The sudden offline official domain and the upcoming large unlock pushed $MMT to the brink of liquidity exhaustion, yet on-chain turnover rates have surged abnormally.
The token price is facing dense order resistance near 0.25, while the 24-hour turnover rate surged to 45% as the daily chart closes with a long upper shadow.
Behind the net outflow data from exchanges, 70% of funds flowed to two newly added specific addresses, indicating that funds are maintaining active trading through swap behavior.
This on-chain inversion occurs simultaneously with large players transferring tokens to trading platforms, indicating that major funds are using fake liquidity booms to cover their shipments.
If the price can break through the previous resistance at 0.26 with increased volume and reverse funds converting into genuine buying inflows, it may trigger a short squeeze, but the official domain name relaunch is a prerequisite for this path to work.
If the price breaks below the 0.23 cost support line and the 4.93 million tokens unlocked on August 4 enter the market as expected, liquidity stamping will be unavoidable unless new institutional funds take over the market.
If the project team publicly clarifies the domain status on social channels, it will directly disprove the current market speculation about the team's disappearance, thereby reversing the risk-averse sentiment of funds.
The most important thing to watch in the next 7 days is whether the funds from those two newly added counterfeit addresses will shift toward a complete one-way outflow around the August 4th unlock node.
#Strategy终止逢低买币, Q2 paper loss of 8.2 billion yuan #"AI Stock God" fund clears positions, Micron rose over 15% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期 in a single day, but its stock price plunged sharply after hours$SOL 73, bounced again.
Previously, I called for money to run thirteen times and bounced eleven times. This time, with a rebound, a significant net increase in large orders within fifteen minutes, with active contract buying accounting for over 70%.
But within three hours, all twelve shares were still negative, and not a single one was flipped.
The number of borrowers has increased by 60%, and whale positions are decreasing.
Every time it bounces back, it's leveraged investors and retail investors who take over, while big players run in.
It bounced, but it was done.
#sol $SOL#微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Microsoft's single-day market value surged nearly $450 billion, setting a record in the US stock market. This is not emotional speculation; the financial report has once and for all dispelled doubts about "AI being a bottomless money pit."
Q4 revenue reached $90 billion, Azure growth rate was 43%, annual cloud revenue exceeded $100 billion for the first time, and Copilot paid seats surpassed 30 million—AI has moved from a PowerPoint concept to cash flow. More importantly, capital expenditure was lower than expected, temporarily closing the market's biggest fear of "input-output mismatch," which is why it saw the largest single-day increase since 2018.
Currently, this marks the transition of cloud + AI from the expectation phase to the realization phase, but don't chase the high after one day of gains. Wait for a pullback to the mid-term moving average before adjusting your position. The main focus is on whether Azure's growth rate can stay stable above 40%.Bitcoin News: Bitcoin "Holding Steady," South Korea's KOSPI Records a Record 17% Rebound — The Decoupling of the Crypto Market from Chip Trading Reflects in Both Directions
On Friday, despite the crypto market showing little obvious reaction, Bitcoin was still close to $64,300; Meanwhile, South Korea's KOSPI surged sharply, with a peak gain of 17%—the largest single-day gain in history—rebounding from a three-day plunge that had plunged the index to over 40% below its June 19 peak. Samsung and SK Hynix both rose more than 23%, TSMC rose 10%, and the Nasdaq 100 ended a six-day losing streak after the largest rebound among U.S. chip stocks in over a year. After hours, Amazon rose nearly 10% on strong cloud business earnings. Apple fell 6% due to lowered sales forecasts caused by supply shortages. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has only seen slight fluctuations, briefly surging to $65,300 in early Asian trading before pulling back within an hour. Ethereum was at $1,907, XRP at $1.08, Solana at $74, and DOGE at $0.07. BNB was the only major position to achieve a meaningful weekly gain, rising 3% for the week at $590. Most major coins remain on the decline this week.
Delinkage — Bitcoin followed the decline as chips declined, now exiting the rebound
During July, Bitcoin and semiconductors were highly aligned (fluctuating with chip trading fluctuations), but now they remain inactive and do not participate in the rebound, marking the most analytic market structure change this week. China's DUV lithography technology breakthrough caused Samsung and SK Hynix to fall 23% within two trading days, pushing Kospi down from its peak to -40%; Bitcoin also fell along with it. Bitcoin withstood Thursday's $797 billion sell-off in U.S. mega-cap tech stocks. Bitcoin also withstood South Korea's worst two-day crash of the year (midweek). Now, Bitcoin has exited a record 17% Kospi rebound, as well as the largest chip stock rally in over a year.
In Bitcoin's price history, asymmetric correlation—following declines but not rising ones—is not a new phenomenon. It usually appears during periods of macroeconomic headwinds that last longer than the specific catalysts driving stock market rebounds. The 17% rebound in the Korea Composite Index (Kospi) was mainly driven by South Korea's emergency market stabilization measures—leveraged ETF restrictions, increased trading costs, government promises of further stabilization—and compounded by broader semiconductor easing trading following the worst period of AI trading revaluation, which stabilized the situation. These are the specific catalysts for the stock market and cannot address Bitcoin's own headwinds: the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision and its forward-looking guidance on the probability of a September rate hike, oil prices above $90 after the Iran-Jordan missile launch escalation, and the structural macro pattern of inflation at 4.1% versus the Fed's 2% target.
Weekly scorecard—most major markets declined
The weekly performance reflects Bitcoin's "flat" Friday masking a weak underlying tone. HYPE fell 5% over seven trading days, Solana and XRP each dropped 3%, and Bitcoin fell 2%. Ethereum and Dogecoin rose 1%—the only major coins still in the positive—while BNB also rose 3%. After a 10-10 divergence on CoinDesk 20 on Wednesday, the market entered a week: despite Kospi's record rebound, Nasdaq ending its losing streak, and Amazon's strong cloud performance, most major crypto assets still declined. This weekly weakness is more driven by macro factors rather than crypto-specific factors—and the specific macro drivers have not been offset by the rebound in semiconductor stocks.
After-hours: Amazon +10%, Apple −6%—AI cloud vs. supply chain differentiation
Amazon's nearly 10% post-market gain, driven by strong cloud performance, is a positive AI infrastructure data point the market has been waiting for—direct evidence that hyperscaler AI spending is generating measurable acceleration in cloud revenue. Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue growth exceeded expectations, confirming Microsoft's highest short position level in ten years and the AI infrastructure demand-side argument triggered by SK Hynix's 257% year-on-year growth falling short of expectations. Apple fell 6% due to lowered sales expectations driven by supply shortages—signals of supply chain disruptions: disruptions in Hormuz and broader trade flows are disrupting Apple in ways that affect manufacturing supply chains, undermining its ability to meet demand rather than destroying it.
The "Amazon–Apple" divergence during the same after-hours session describes two simultaneous narratives in the current market: AI cloud demand is real and accelerating, but supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical upgrades are creating hardware supply constraints, preventing this demand from fully converting into terminal device sales.
Japan background — After the Bank of Japan maintained its policy, the yen weakened, while the dollar and US Treasuries rose
The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged as expected, leading to a weakening yen following Thursday's largest single-day gain against the dollar in over two years following Japan's intervention. After the Bank of Japan's reversal in the yen, rising in sync with the dollar but also rising with US Treasuries, and continued declines in oil prices together painted a macro scene for Friday: even the semiconductor rebound in stocks, which was considered "risk-appetite," did not generate the crypto tailwinds that might have been suggested earlier by the "stock-crypto correlation."
Oil prices continued to fall—from a high above $100, a brief stagnation of $87 after the shock, and then continued to decline—marking the most constructive macro development in Bitcoin's mid-term allocation. Every sustained drop in oil prices for every dollar lowers near-level CPI inflation expectations that drive the probability of a Fed rate hike. If the drop in oil prices continues rather than being reversed by the U.S. military response triggered by the Iran-Jordan ballistic missile escalation, the probability of a rate hike in September could be significantly lowered from 63%—thus providing the macro "release signal" Bitcoin needs: pushing it above $67,250 and approaching the $68,500 STH cost benchmark.Tether gains $1.5 billion in Q2, but "safety cushion" halves
💰 Tether has just announced a Q2 operating profit of $1.5 billion, mainly from US Treasury bonds and repos. However, the overdue reserves fell from more than $8 billion to $4.11 billion — almost cut in half.
Real-world perspective: USDT still accounts for more than 60% of the stablecoin market share, supply increased slightly to about $184.6 billion. They continued to buy more gold (14 tons more, totaling more than 146 tons) and Bitcoin. This is a signal that Tether is optimizing its balance sheet in a high-interest rate environment, but also shows the pressure to revalue assets as gold and BTC prices fluctuate.
Other insights: As the market's largest stablecoin "buffer" shrinks, the market is often more sensitive to rumors or liquidity events. Big profits but a reduced buffer is a two-sided story that traders should not ignore.$USDT 📊 On-chain Analyst Perspective: $HYPE Real-Time Market Analysis of Tokens
🔻 Support and resistance levels
Resistance above (concentrated selling pressure zone):
· 57.0-57.3: The 100-day moving average has shifted from support to resistance
· 60-63: Short-term rebound core resistance zone
· 64-67.8: The 50-day moving average + downtrend line are pushing down, forming a strong resistance zone
· 76.8: Historical ATH, the ultimate mid-game ceiling
Below support (bullish defense line):
· 54-55: In the current price area, the daily RSI has dropped to 29.42, indicating extreme oversoldness
· 52-53: 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level + core demand zone
· 50:200 daily EMA+ psychological level; if it falls, the medium-term trend will reverse
· 45:0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, intersecting the April-May support level
The weekly technical signal strength is 81/100, the MACD histogram is positive (+1.8549), prices are above the macro upward support level (~$29.33), and SuperTrend is bullish. However, short-term price momentum declined, with a 6.1% drop within four candlesticks. The current price has fallen below the key psychological level of $57, with resistance between 57 and 57.3.
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🐋 Market maker movements on the chain
Whale Disturbance:
· After 9 months of sleep, the whale awakens: 19 linked wallets transferred about 2.93 million HYPE to Hyperliquid and completed staking, with an average holding price of about $44 and an unrealized profit of about $44.5 million. This is not a sell, but a signal for long-term positioning
· Suspected a16z address: Staked 2.785 million HYPE through 20 wallets, worth about $164 million, making it one of the largest holders of HYPE
· Counter-trend Whale Holdings: Since June 11, has accumulated about 220,000 HYPE shares at an average cost of $67.51. Currently, the unrealized loss is about $1.945 million, and the position is still being increased
· Selini Capital: Transferred 495,473 HYPE (about $26.8 million) to OKX; founder denies shipment allegations, claims they were used for ecosystem functions
Institutional Capital Flows:
ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive weeks, withdrawing $2.89 million on July 27 and $1.24 million on July 28. On July 17, $7.26 million was outflowed, rising to $8.61 million on the 24th. However, SoSoValue data shows that during the week of May 29, there was an inflow of $57.19 million, peaking at $111.36 million on June 26.
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✅ Positive factors
1. Driven by real revenue: protocol revenue surpassed $1 billion, open interest reached $11.45 billion, a new annual high, and 24-hour perpetual contract trading volume exceeded $9.29 billion. Generates approximately $2.2 million in daily fees and $1.51 million in protocol revenue
2. Continuous buyback and burn: A total of 47.3 million HYPE have been burned, accounting for 4.73% of the total supply; 97-99% of protocol fees are automatically used to buy back HYPE. Cumulative repurchases have exceeded $1.1 billion
3. Grayscale Valuation Bullish: The Grayscale report forecasts protocol profits of $1 billion by 2027, corresponding to profits of $3.25-3.75 per token, with a forward P/E ratio of only 15-18 times, lower than most fintech companies
4. Arthur Hayes targets $150: BitMEX founder predicts HYPE will reach $150 in August, with the core logic being a "cash flow machine" continuously buying back returns
5. HIP-4 testnet launch: Developers can stake 100 HYPE to deploy prediction markets without gas fees
6. First allocation by a Japanese listed company: Tokyo-listed company Eole bought 1,078 HYPE, planning to increase its holdings to 100 million yen by the end of August
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❌ Bearish factors (⚠️ extremely high risk)
1. $600 million unlocked: On July 29, 9.92 million HYPE tokens were unlocked, accounting for about 4% of circulating supply. Multicoin applied for unstaking 1.96 million tokens ($120 million), and Selini also unsold, 504,000 tokens. Since unlocking in December 2025, the team has cashed out approximately $165 million
2. Continued net outflows from ETFs: Net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative outflow exceeding $13 million in July
3. In the next 7 days, 6.93 million tokens will be unstaked
4. The price has retreated nearly 30% from its ATH, with a weekly drop of over 8%, making it the hardest drop among the top 10 market capitalizations
5. Extreme market sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index is only 28 (fear), the long-short ratio is 2.0102 (66.8% bulls), indicating excessive bullish sentiment
6. Four major negative factors selling off simultaneously: KYC concerns, SK Hynix perpetual contract crash of 18% triggering $57 million in liquidations, US-Iran tensions suppressing risk appetite, and a double technical top
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🎯 Comprehensive assessment
$HYPE Currently in an extreme divergence state of "extreme fundamentals vs. massive unlocks + capital outflows." On-chain whales are increasing positions and staking against the trend (with an average floating profit of 44.5 million at $44 each, still choosing to stake rather than sell), but institutional unlocking and continued ETF outflows create real selling pressure. The daily RSI of 29.42 is extremely oversold, with a historical 90% chance of a rebound, but if 52-53 is breached, it could accelerate to 50 or even 45.
In the short term, watch whether 54-55 can stabilize—if holding, the rebound target is 57-60; If the price drops below 52 on high volume, the bearish target is 50. Only after 57-58 is reclaimed above can the right side opportunity be confirmed.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. $HYPE Currently, the market is in an extreme bullish and bearish contest of "institutions unlocking selling pressure + continuous ETF outflows + whales accumulating against the trend." A DeFi leader with nearly $800 million in annualized revenue, but short-term supply shocks are real. With liquidity declining and volatility intense, participation in any direction requires extreme caution. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks Tether earned $1.5 billion, but I actually focus more on its "safety pad"
My viewpoint:
USDT's biggest risk now is not profitability, but rather its margin of safety is declining.
The reason is simple:
Tether's Q2 net operating profit reached $1.5 billion, proving it remains one of the most profitable stablecoin issuers in the crypto market.
But another piece of data deserves more attention:
USDT circulating supply reached $184.6 billion, but this quarter it grew by only about $446 million, with growth nearly stagnating.
Meanwhile, excess reserves dropped sharply from the previous quarter's level to $4.11 billion.
Many people only see:
"Earning 1.5 billion in one quarter—that's impressive."
But what I focus on is:
If the market experiences extreme market conditions, how much buffer space does it still have?
The greatest value of stablecoins is not making money, but maintaining stability during panic.
Additionally, Tether's reserve structure has changed:
Gold rose to 146.2 tons, and BTC holdings approached 98,933.
This is asset diversification, but also a double-edged sword.
Gold and BTC can spread some risk, but they also have price fluctuations themselves.
For those holding large amounts of USDT, when judging a stablecoin, I don't just look at its size—I look at three indicators:
Whether reserves are transparent;
Whether excess reserves are sufficient;
Can it withstand stress tests in extreme market conditions?
This financial report did not change my judgment of USDT's status.
But it reminds us of one thing:
In the stablecoin industry, competition isn't about who earns the most, but who can make users trust it even when they're most afraid.
In a bull market, look at growth; in a bear market, look at reserves.
True stability isn't about proving yourself when things are going your way, but about standing firm when you're at a loss.The Bitcoin-treasury bellwether just posted the quarter I've been watching for. Strategy reported an $8.3B loss for Q2, driven by a non-cash mark-to-market hit on its Bitcoin under fair-value accounting, and, more tellingly, sold roughly 3,588 BTC, its first real selling after years of "never sell." Two weeks ago the company signaled it might. Now it has.
Read it without panic and without denial. Most of the loss is an accounting artifact, not a cash event; fair-value rules cut both ways and showed enormous gains on the way up. But the actual selling is the substance: a leveraged holder trimming to manage obligations is exactly the pressure the model faces when price stops rising. Not the end of the treasury-company thesis, its first real stress test in the open. The lesson stands, owning BTC and owning a levered bet on a BTC-holder are different trades. Watching whether the selling continues.
Not advice, just analysis.
#StrategyBTCLoss #OKXOrbitI'm really going crazy!!! Help me, sisters
U.S. stock futures are crazy again. Apple's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, yet the stock price plunged 9% after hours. Isn't this messing with people? Earnings are amazing but the price drops?
And then guess what.
The White House responded about whether the CLARITY Act will be voted on next week. If this bill passes, it would be a major positive for the crypto market. But now it's still dragging on, every time it's "vote next week" and then postponed again.
Google is backing AI data center debt in exchange for a 20% equity stake. The AI bubble is getting bigger; even Google is exchanging equity for cash. What does this mean? The financing cost for AI is rising.
So my judgment is: U.S. stock volatility is intensifying, but the crypto market is already used to this kind of volatility. The CLARITY Act is the real catalyst; let's wait for the voting results. In the short term, U.S. stocks will decide the direction, but crypto has its own independent logic.
I looked through today's market, and a few points are quite interesting:
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌
Apple's earnings exceeded expectations but dropped 9%; the market trades on future expectations, not current data. This "good news fully priced in" scenario is common in crypto too. BTC 62883 is a similar case—good news comes out but no one buys.
#白宫回应将决定CLARITY法案下周能否投票
The CLARITY Act is a regulatory clarity signal the crypto industry has been waiting for a long time. The White House says the vote is next week, but this "next week" has been said many times. I choose to be cautiously optimistic and will adjust my positions after the results.
#谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底，换取两成股权
Google exchanging equity for AI data center debt is a warning sign. When big companies start financing with equity instead of cash, it means cash pressure is high. No matter how hot the AI narrative is, it can't withstand this kind of financial maneuver.
$BTC #美股 #CLARITY #AI📊 On-chain Analyst Perspective: $BEAT Real-Time Market Analysis of Tokens
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🔻 Support and resistance levels
Resistance above (concentrated selling pressure zone):
· 4.50-4.71: Early-stage chip trading zone, with many trapped positions waiting to be unlocked
· 5.00: Psychological threshold + heavy bearish defense position; breakthrough requires increased volume and coordination
· 6.00-7.00: Medium-term strong resistance zone, target range for rebound and recovery
Below support (bullish defense line):
· 4.04-4.10: If the daily close holds this range, institutional buyers will continue to dominate the structure
· 3.60-3.69: Confirmation of pullback after breaking out of the ascending triangle
· 3.00-3.20: Key psychological support; if broken, bearish trend will be confirmed
· 2.80-2.19: Ultimate demand zone, early stage with dense chip holdings
The current price has retraced about 60% from the ATH of $10.98, currently in the middle of the rebound recovery channel. The momentum of the 1-hour MACD has weakened, but the daily chart structure remains dominated by bulls above 4.04-4.10. 4.04 is currently the most important dividing line between bulls and bears—above, the rebound is continuing; below, the second bottom is probed.
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🐋 Market maker movements on the chain
Whale behavior signals:
· The Delta value of whale-to-retail investor holdings rose to 0.0123, the highest since June 25, indicating that whale holdings outnumber retail investors
· Some early-stage positions cost about $0.58, with unrealized gains exceeding 640%, posing significant realization pressure
· Over the past week, whales have withdrawn heavily from exchanges, with market Delta turning positive and signals leaning toward accumulation
Chip structure features:
· Net inflow to small and medium-sized addresses has shown high-frequency and sustained growth over the past 30 days, with a retention rate of 74.39%
· The chip distribution is relatively balanced (about 118,000 holders), with not a few whales monopolizing the market, making the consensus for the rise more resilient
Smart Money Strategy:
· Short-term funds are positioning long positions around 4.04-4.10, with a target of 7.10
· Margin market is divergence between long and short — Binance's large account long-short ratio is slightly high at 1.58, but the long-short ratio for the number of accounts is only 0.92, indicating a bearish bias among retail investors
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✅ Positive factors
1. AI + GameFi Dual Narrative: Based on the 600 million user IP of "Audition," integrating AI music generation, virtual idols, and on-chain economy, the concept is sexy and has a real user base
2. Revenue-Driven Deflation: From July 20 to 27, 800,000 BEAT tokens (about $2.9 million) were generated in a single week, with 799,700 tokens burned simultaneously, totaling over 17.83 million coins
3. $BEAT 2.0 Roadmap: Planned in five phases until 2027, aiming to evolve into an on-chain economy where "humans + AI agents participate equally."
4. Whale accumulation signals: large withdrawals + Delta at positive value, smart money is entering on dips
5. Relative Value Depression: Down 60% from the ATH, Bitcoin down 49%, Ethereum down 62%, with over-drop rates close to mainstream assets
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❌ Bearish factors (⚠️ extremely high risk)
1. August 1 cliff unlock: 21.25 million BEAT tokens (approximately $67.78–$81.66 million) will be unlocked today, accounting for 6.87% of circulating supply—the unlock amount is nearly 1.8 times the daily trading volume ($37.84 million).
2. Burns are far less than the unlock scale: Only 800,000 tokens are burned per week, with unlock volume 26.7 times higher, making the deflationary mechanism completely inadequate to offset supply shocks
3. Confidence Wounds After the ATH Crash: After peaking at $11 on June 12, the market dropped 60% in three days—a typical scenario of 'roadmap pull→ market makers selling off while retail investors → standing guard.'
4. Web2 user conversion is questionable: 60 million registered users represent the Web2 stock during the "Audition" era and may not buy BEAT just to play rhythm games
5. Market sentiment is bearish: CoinGecko survey shows 60% of respondents are bearish; The long-short ratio across the entire network is nearly balanced at 0.99, but the Binance account long-short ratio is only 0.88, indicating a bearish bias for retail investors
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🎯 Comprehensive assessment
$BEAT Currently in an extreme game window of "whale accumulation vs. massive unlocks." On-chain data points to Smart Money positioning long positions between April 4 and April 10, but the unlocked scale on August 1 is nearly 7% of the circulating share, making supply shocks a real hard risk. Although the burn mechanism creates a deflationary narrative, its absolute scale cannot rival unlocking.
In the short term, watch the defense at 4.04-4.10—if it holds, the structure is intact, with a target of 4.50-5.00; if it fails, it may accelerate to 3.60 or even 3.00. The 4.50-4.71 range is a strong resistance zone; a breakout will require heavy volume support.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. BEAT is currently in a triple risk stacking state: "high floating whale + massive volume unlock + high beta volatility." Whether the receivers sell after the August 1st unlock will determine the short-term direction. Low liquidity, frequent slippage and false breakouts, and extreme caution is required for participation in any direction. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks "Instant Crash at Morning Open, Friday's Cash Out Is Too Realistic"
Early in the morning on August 1st Beijing time, I repeatedly recalled last night's early US stock trading movement, and the more I pondered, the more I understood the intentions of the capital.
From my experience staying up all night watching the market, the atmosphere at the opening was especially lively.
Relying on expectations of rate cuts in recent days, all three major indices opened slightly higher. The Nasdaq started straight up to a high of 25,460 points, and the storage sector surged collectively.
SanDisk and Micron surged 8 to 9 points in early trading, with SK Hynix reaching a high of $162.65. Everyone thought the storage price hike trend would continue.
At that time, not only were chip stocks exciting, but Amazon, riding on a better-than-expected earnings report, opened with a gap-up and higher opening. The AI cloud computing sector was in the red, and bullish sentiment surged through Securities Firm China.
But the lively atmosphere lasted only half an hour, and the tone changed instantly.
On one hand, several Federal Reserve officials have spoken out, still leaning toward tightening monetary policy. People immediately realized that rate cuts will be delayed, and funds that previously bet on easing are now rushing out to cash out; Moreover, as is customary on Friday, funds don't want to hold positions through the weekend, leading to a surge of safe-haven selling positions.
The Nasdaq plunged sharply, hitting a low of 25,004 points, swallowing all the opening gains and turning negative, instantly raising a sense of panic in the market.
The internal division of the sector is absurd, completely unlike the pattern of rising and falling simultaneously.
Giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, which hold AI cloud businesses, remained steady and steady throughout the decline; In contrast, Apple's earnings guidance fell short of expectations, leading to massive capital sell-offs and a downward trend in the consumer electronics sector.
The gap in storage is also wide, with Micron and SanDisk pulling back significantly, while SK Hynix, backed by HBM capacity, has dropped the least. Its resistance to declines is obvious.
Here, as soon as US stocks fell in early trading, Bitcoin immediately followed suit, unable to operate independently.
Nowadays, the logic of capital is fixed; whenever the market starts selling safe-haven assets, crypto assets are always the first positions to be cut off.
After this roller coaster in the morning session, I finally understood that there is no comprehensive bull market right now; it will only be a structural fluctuation where funds cluster together in quality assets. Blindly chasing small stocks at high prices can easily get stuck. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks Target confirmed. Before the morning fog clears, my scope has never locked onto the K-line, but rather the true intent hidden behind the quarterly earnings trajectory.
Impact point: AMZN. Infrared data shows revenue of 200.6 billion, with a 20% velocity error within the expected range. But the real prey is not the main target—AWS's shot: 42.2 billion equivalent, 37% growth, a trajectory rise I haven't seen since the end of 2021. A 39.4% profit margin, the most beautiful red dot in the scope.
A 220 billion powder magazine procurement order? Two hundred twenty billion in secondary ammunition supply. The market did not retreat; instead, it applauded the chambering action. A 9% increase is the wind blowing past the sniper position—the wind direction has changed.
The wind direction has changed. The same tactical manual the previous day, Meta's shot was a dud. Today, with the same missed guidance, Amazon's warhead is an armor-piercing incendiary. What changed? The answer is written on the anemometer: the cloud. As long as the cloud layer accelerates and churns, the cover is thick enough, and the 200 billion firepower expenditure is not a war of attrition but a pricing of initiative. The market does not punish the shooter who spends money; it punishes the shooter who cannot see the target.
Three bullets, three hit evaluations. MSFT hit the bullseye decisively; Meta raised the gun, aimed, but did not dare to pull the trigger; Amazon pulled the trigger while shouting, "All impact points hit." The same AI theme, different gun-holding postures. AWS is the silencer mounted on Amazon's barrel—not silent, but when it fires, it sentences you to death immediately.
In my line of work, the most valuable thing never comes from the shot itself, but from the observation and recalibration after the shot. The market pays for 220 billion in firepower, not just to pay, but to allow you to establish a deeper observation range. When the cloud layer accelerates fast enough, burning money is not burning money; it is calibrating all parabolas in one direction.
Alright. Target clear, wind correction complete, the dividing line presses on the throat of cloud computing. This is my decision, and the only decision I need.
Chamber. Aim. All resistance and support within the observation window have been fully exposed—this is the prey the hunter has chosen, the wind direction has changed, and the trajectory has changed.
Pull the trigger.
Impact point, nine rings.
#AMZNMissesButRallies 📊 On-chain Analyst Perspective: $MMT Real-Time Market Analysis of Tokens
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🔻 Support and resistance levels
Resistance above (concentrated selling pressure zone):
· 0.25-0.26 range: The address with the largest position (11.2%) placed consecutive sell orders within this range, canceling orders three times in total, typical of false pallet trading
· Around 0.255: Smart money is placing sell orders here to catch pullbacks
· 0.2618:1H Bollinger Band upper band where it is continuously pierced
Below support (bullish defense line):
· Around 0.238: Dense buying orders, clear capital support intention
· 0.23: Main cost support line, breaking below would trigger a waterfall risk
· 0.218-0.222: Smart money is truly entering the long range, with limit buy orders hanging below, waiting to be harvested
Currently, the market price is in a short-term chip concentration zone, with fierce bullish and bearish competition. Technically, the 1H RSI reached 81.52, indicating overbought, but the 4H MACD histogram is still expanding, indicating that bullish momentum has not completely exhausted. The funding rate of -0.004% is negative, indicating clear short squeeze potential.
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🐋 On-chain market player movements (key points!) ）
Whale Disturbance:
· Address 0x7b3a... f9e2 transferred 2.1 million $MMT to the exchange at a cost price of about 0.19, with unrealized profits exceeding 30%.
· Another address 0x9f8d... C321 transferred 1.3 million coins to an unknown wallet in three installments within 5 minutes, suspected to be off-market selling
Data falsification traces:
In the past 24 hours, six addresses made large transfers exceeding 500,000 coins, with exchanges seeing a net outflow of about 3.4 million tokens, but 70% of these came from two newly added 'black hole' addresses—a typical case of inversion creating a false turnover effect. The 24-hour turnover rate reached 45%, with a daily chart closing in a long upper shadow, showing a clear divergence between volume and price.
Smart Money Strategy:
Place sell orders near 0.255 to catch pullbacks, while using on-chain order scanning robots to monitor whale wallets; the real layout is limit buy orders placed below 0.21.
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✅ Positive factors
1. Sui ecosystem explosion: MMT is positioned as "Uniswap+Curve+Balancer on Sui," with Sui chain's TVL rapidly climbing, and MMT, as the core governance token, deeply integrated with the ecosystem
2. Top-tier institutional endorsement: Backed by Coinbase Ventures, OKX Ventures, and Binance Labs, with project valuations once reaching $100 million
3. ve(3,3) Lock-up model: Up to four years of lock-up mechanism incentivizes long-term holding, reducing short-term circulation selling pressure
4. Community Bullish Sentiment: Social media discussions are dominated by bullish signals
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❌ Bearish factors (⚠️ extremely high risk)
1. Official domain has gone offline: momentum.finance, documentation site, and application site are all inaccessible; the main domain redirects to the GoDaddy sale page, and the community generally suspects the project team is missing and the project has been abandoned
2. 80% token locked: total supply of 1 billion tokens, with only about 204 million in circulation; subsequent large-scale unlocking will create sustained selling pressure
3. Upcoming Unlocks: On August 4, 4.93 million MMT (approximately $927,000) will be unlocked
4. Severe Disconnect Between TVL and FDV: TVL is only $4.82 million, FDV is as high as $188.8 million, and the valuation multiple reaches 39 times
5. Platforms like Binance still have trading, but the project's fundamentals have been severely damaged
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🎯 Comprehensive assessment
$MMT Currently in a very high-risk game range. On-chain data shows that major players are creating the illusion of turnover to cover shipments, with whales earning over 30% of the floating profit around 0.19 cost, showing strong profit-taking motivation. The serious risk signal of official domain delisting has not yet been fully priced in by the market.
In the short term, watch whether 0.238 can hold steady; breaking below 0.23 could accelerate the decline to 0.22 or even 0.21. The upper 0.25-0.26 zone is a strong resistance zone, with large players clearly placing selling orders.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Currently, MMT is in a triple risk state: "doubtful project fundamentals + on-chain data manipulation signs + imminent unlocking," requiring extreme caution in any direction. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks $SKHYNIX In a weak rebound phase within a medium-term bearish trend, with fierce bullish and bearish tug-of-war, short-term direction choices are required.
1. Trend Structure (Medium-term Bearish)
· Moving averages in bearish alignment: The price (1,086) is well below the MA20 (1,188) and EMA20 (1,204), and the MA5 (1,055) < MA10 (1,133) < MA20 indicates an overall downward channel over the past 20 days.
· Key resistance confirmed: The intraday rebound high of 1,210 just touched the MA20 area before pulling back, confirming effective resistance in this area.
2. Short-term Game (Oversold Rebound Hindered)
· Weak rebound: Although the price has risen above the MA5 (1,055), it is under pressure at the EMA5 (1,088), currently just slightly below this line, indicating insufficient short-term rebound momentum.
· VWMA signal contradiction: VWMA5 (1,041) and VWMA10 (1,078) are both below current prices, indicating that the cost of holding funds entering today is low, with some profit-taking pressure; However, the VWMA20 (1,148) is above, indicating heavy medium-term trapped bearing.
3. Key Support and Resistance (Key Focus on Market Watch)
· Immediate defense: Today's low of 1,080 almost coincides with the VWMA10 (1,078), making it the most important short-term long lifeline. If it breaks below with increased volume, it may trigger stop-loss orders.
· Rebound ceiling: First resistance at 1,122 (system resistance), strong resistance in the MA10 (1,133) area.
· Mid-term bottom: System support at 999 is the final psychological threshold below.
4. Momentum and Sentiment (RSI/Volume)
· Signs of RSI divergence: RSI 6 (42) is higher than RSI 12 (39.65), indicating a slowdown in the short term, but none are oversold (below 30), indicating weak bottom-fishing willingness.
· Volume drop: 24-hour turnover reached 700 million USDT, closing down 2.67%, typical of high-volume selling or bull-bear inversion. Be cautious of sharp fluctuations before the direction is clear.
Comprehensive conclusions and strategic recommendations:
The trend is weak, so it's not recommended to buy long. If it stabilizes near 1,080~1,086 and trading volume shrinks, you can try a light position and go long, setting a stop loss below 1,078 with a target of 1,122; If it effectively breaks below 1,078, it is highly likely to inertly test the 999 area. Conservatives should wait for prices to regain above the EMA5 (1,088) and break through 1,122 with increased volume before considering right-side entry. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 "The US Stock Market Turns Down as BTC Follows Tails"
On the morning of August 1st Beijing time, after reviewing last night's two sides' face-to-face charts, the pattern of linked interactions was already beyond doubt.
In my view, after the Nasdaq surged in early trading yesterday, it suddenly plunged, instantly spreading risk-off sentiment within the market.
Funds are selling off high-risk assets in large quantities to hedge safe, with Bitcoin being the first to fall and begin a pullback, operating in sync with the rise and fall of US stocks throughout.
Even though the Nasdaq made a deep V reversal in the afternoon and closed up 1 percentage point, cryptocurrencies still couldn't recover all their losses, and the weakness continued until the close.
There are many triggers for this situation, layer upon layer continuously suppressing the market.
US Treasury yields remain high, risk-free wealth management returns are steadily in sight, and the opportunity cost of holding digital currencies is rising. No one wants to hold BTC for the long term.
Strategy firms that had previously been hoarding coins to secure the market have paused low-level accumulation operations, and in Q2 still suffered a massive loss of 8.2 billion yuan, with the largest buyer support in crypto disappearing entirely.
Moreover, as Friday approaches the weekend, traders habitually shrink positions to avoid risks caused by various unexpected weekend news, naturally leading to a sharp decline in bullish support.
Additionally, the introduction of US stock trading by exchanges has caused capital diversion, causing existing funds that were originally speculating on altcoins and mainstream coins in the crypto world to invest in high-quality US stocks like Microsoft and SK Hynix.
Liquidity within the crypto market continues to shrink; whenever there is even the slightest movement in the US market, the margin of decline here is always multiplied by leverage.
After all this practice, I know very well that until the Federal Reserve's liquidity policy is fully relaxed, Bitcoin cannot break free from the constraints of U.S. stocks.
The current weak oscillation pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. Blindly bottom-fishing will only lead to repeated fluctuations and repeated harvesting. Waiting for signs of stopping the decline is more reliable. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price reversed by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU in U.S. stocks The July rally was truly tough—not only were the investors chasing at the highs buried, but even several professional funds had already collapsed.
The genius Leopold is not alone; According to Bloomberg, Mingqiu's affiliated overseas fund, Jupiter Tactical Trading Fund, At the beginning of the year, it managed about $186 million, with a net profit after fees exceeding 90% in the first half. However, in the first three days of July, it lost less than 7.5%, and by July 24, the loss had rapidly expanded to about 43%.
Most striking of all, this is still a "market-neutral" quantitative fund.
In theory, it shouldn't rely too much on market fluctuations; But when AI, small-cap stocks, and momentum factors all reverse simultaneously, even market neutrality can't save it: bulls collapse quickly, bears suddenly squeeze, and the previously stable correlation and hedging relationship fail. Combined with leverage and redemption pressure, net asset value can be broken within weeks.
This round of market reversals is so fast that crowded trading is trampling on each other, leaving even some of the smartest money to withdraw.
By July, it had already become a major stress test site for professional funds.#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Guys, the market is sending a contradictory signal.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Three rate hikes, strong domestic demand, and a 20% monthly rise in oil prices—expectations for rate hikes are gradually entering the pricing phase. On the other hand, the June PCE just turned negative for the first time since 2020, signaling a clear cooling of inflation. In the same time window, two completely opposite data points are on the table.
Funds have chosen their own direction—U.S. Treasury yields have been climbing without turning back.
The market has shown everyone a fact with real money: compared to PCE's monthly negative turn, capital cares more about oil prices and demand. Oil prices rose 20% in a month, and this is not just a change in numbers, but a real imported inflation expectation. What does it mean that long-term interest rates are heading toward 5.3%? It means the center of funding costs is shifting upward in the coming years. For the crypto market, this headwind won't end the bull market, but it will prolong the period of volatility. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm has changed.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $GRVT Among storage stocks, why did SK Hynix fall the least?
Early on August 1st Beijing time, reviewing last night's closing data for the storage sector, the gap between the three major companies is immediately clear.
In my view, SK Hynix closed down 3.54% in a single day, with an intraday amplitude surging to 12.85%. It opened at $159.88, surged in early trading to a high of $162.65, and when the Nasdaq plunged, it was driven by the broader market and dumped, hitting a low of $143.51 and barely holding the price level at the close.
Compared to Micron's drop of over 5.5% and SanDisk's nearly 5-point decline, its resilience leads the entire sector by a wide margin.
Its resilience is mainly due to its hold on HBM high-end memory capacity. Major AI companies rely on this chip to build computing clusters, and solid demand orders have steadily supported the fundamentals.
Even though the market collectively avoided and cashed out on Friday, funds were reluctant to massively sell off this core asset.
But it ultimately cannot escape the constraints of the US stock market. The Nasdaq plunged deeply in early trading, and it plunged rapidly in sync with the U.S. In the afternoon, the Nasdaq rebounded and closed up 1%, but its downward pace slowed, dropping only 0.79% after hours, with clear signs of some bottom-fishing support.
After a long review of the sector's trends, I've concluded that the storage sector is no longer in a cyclical market where both rises and falls occur.
Leading companies tied to the rigid demand for AI computing power have limited pullback space but solid bottoms; Mid- and lower-tier stocks focused on ordinary flash memory chips are abandoned first by capital every time the market pulls back.
In the short term, during the market oscillation and consolidation phase, SK Hynix will remain the safest choice in the storage sector. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance missed expectations, but its stock price reversed to rise 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record $BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX for U.S. stocks The inflection point in Wall Street's reward and punishment logic for AI has already appeared, but 99% of people haven't noticed yet.
Over the past year and a half, Wall Street has had an unspoken routine regarding the huge expenditures of tech giants: the money is definitely going to be spent, but the returns are uncertain, so whenever anyone raises spending, the stock first drops out of respect.
This quarter marked the first change, and I believe the turning point for the four major cloud providers is about to arrive.
$AMZN surged 15% in a single day. Andy Jassy said on this earnings call what Wall Street has been waiting for:
Servers and network equipment can recoup investments in less than three years on average; AI capacity customer contracts mostly last over five years, meaning after the equipment pays for itself, there are still two to three years of pure profit; as for the data centers themselves, they can be used for over thirty years, replacing five or six generations of servers, so the cost of land and buildings is only paid once.
$GOOG and $MSFT are similar. This is also why I am giving $ORCL more time and patience, even though it may disappoint again.
AI computing power factories have always been a key track in my portfolio, especially cloud providers. As I have shared countless times, the logic of suppressing capital expenditures and suppressing AI semiconductors cannot coexist. This is a serious market trading error.$XRP is currently at a delicate crossroads—prices are trading below all major moving averages, but on-chain data signals seller exhaustion. The bulls and bears have been locked in a narrow range for nearly two weeks.
📊 Key support and resistance levels
Currently, XRP continues its consolidation trend from the June decline, with a clear bearish alignment on the technical side—prices below all key 20-, 50-, 100-day, and 200-day EMA levels.
Resistance level above:
· First Resistance at 1.0935: The 20-day EMA is at this level; standing above here is the first step to improving the short-term outlook
· Second Resistance 1.1274: 50-day EMA resistance; reclaiming this line is a necessary condition for a medium-term strengthening
· Strong resistance at 1.2113-1.5656: 100-day EMA (1.2113) and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (1.5656); a break above the latter will confirm a broader trend reversal
Support below:
· First Support 1.056-1.058: The low area tested multiple times recently, currently barely holding
· Defensive support at the 1.005:0 Fibonacci support level; a break would invalidate the current consolidation trend
· Key support at 0.85-0.88: Analyst Egrag Crypto points out the core support zone, combining the lower boundary of the triangle with the monthly 111 EMA
🐳 On-chain market players and whale movements: sellers are exhausted, buyers are watching and waiting
· Exchange inflows hit a historic low: $XRP monthly inflows to Binance have dropped to a historic low of about 3.6 million coins, indicating holders' reluctance to transfer tokens to exchanges for sale. Withdrawal transactions accounted for 55.6%, the highest since February 2021.
· Whale activity cools to a multi-month low: while large transactions over $100,000 hit a five-month high, whale transfers over one million coins have both declined simultaneously. This kind of "double decline" signal is very rare—selling pressure has eased, but whales are not actively accumulating.
· Exchange reserves dropped to 2.61 billion, but a large number of withdrawals failed to drive the price higher, with analysts noting that these tokens are being moved to cold wallets rather than active trading platforms.
· "Insider whale" hits record floating profits: all short positions in BTC/ETH/XRP/SOL with whales are profitable, with cumulative unrealized gains exceeding $7.2 million—the bear forces cannot be ignored.
📰 News Front: Regulatory Positive Signs vs. Macroeconomic Negative Factors
Positive factors:
· EU regulatory breakthrough: Ripple has obtained full authorization as a crypto asset service provider under the EU's MiCA regulation
· July rebound: XRP rose over 3.8% in July, ending a two-month losing streak
· Ecosystem continues to grow: wallet numbers rise, tokenization milestones advance, and Forbes ranks XRP among its top four crypto recommendations
Negative factors:
· August historical curse: August was the flattest month in $XRP's history, with an average return of only 0.43%, and it has closed lower for four consecutive years
· Institutional demand is extremely weak: the spot XRP ETF saw only $19.6 million in net inflows over 21 trading days in July, with zero inflows on 11 days
· Poor Yearly Performance: XRP has fallen more than 63% from its annual high and over 42% year-to-date
· August 1st Custody Unlock: Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP as planned. Although most will be re-locked, psychological supply pressure remains
· Tightening macro liquidity: expectations of Fed rate hikes and rising U.S. Treasury yields are suppressing overall risk assets
💎 Summary
XRP is caught in a delicate balance between technical pressure and on-chain seller exhaustion. The upper 1.0935 is the first hard challenge; if the lower 1.056 falls, it will open up a gap toward 1.005 or even 0.85-0.88.
The core signal of on-chain data is: there are indeed fewer sellers, but no more buyers are buying. The whales are in a "wait and see" mode rather than actively positioning. Whether August can break the four-year losing streak depends on whether institutional demand can return and whether macro risk appetite can improve. Before this, narrow oscillations remained the main theme. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks After reviewing Coinbase's Q2 data, one figure was quite surprising:
88% of its net income no longer comes from BTC spot trading.
It predicts market business growth of 106% quarter-on-quarter, with the average USDC held on the platform reaching $20 billion.
In the past, when the market cooled, exchanges struggled as well;
Now they're starting to cram in stablecoins, derivatives, prediction markets, and subscription services.
Ultimately, exchanges know that relying solely on frequent BTC trading isn't stable enough.
$COINThe July U.S. stock market finale saw intense volatility amid a tug-of-war between "tech giants' earnings divergence" and "renewed macroinflation concerns."
After the Federal Reserve kept interest rate decisions unchanged, international crude oil prices surged above $88 per barrel, keeping long-term US Treasury yields high and putting temporary valuation pressure on high-valuation tech sectors.
However, the tech giant's Q2 earnings kicked off a dramatic "hot and ice" drama: Amazon's cloud business boom drove its stock price soar in a single day; Apple suffered a heavy blow due to supply chain bottlenecks in computing power components suppressing guidance.
The crypto market as a whole maintained a narrow consolidation amid tight macro liquidity, while DeFi and high-throughput public chain sectors showed strong local structural performance.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 July 28 and 29, Seoul. The Kospi index triggered circuit breakers for two consecutive days, an unprecedented occurrence in the history of the Korean stock market. It fell 10.84% on the first day, and another 5.98% on the second day. SK Hynix, the largest weight, dropped about 23% over two days. Nasdaq plunged, global semiconductor stocks collapsed collectively, and leveraged ETFs collapsed in large numbers. Over two days, the Kospi has pulled back 40% from its June high, and July looks set to be the worst month on record for the index. All the most crowded early transactions are like a card table being overturned by the same hand. This is not negative news for any particular stock, but a global forced deleveraging. The most counterintuitive part is: this time, stocks are the ones that have fallen most like the "crypto world." 01 Ranking of Poor Sellers Let's first look at the spot market. SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit was 60.54 trillion won, a record high, but it was devastated by selling just because it was below LSEG's estimate of 64.22 trillion won, closing at 1.401 million won on July 29. If good news doesn't rise, that's the biggest negative factor. When it was just listed on Nasdaq, its stock price fell below its IPO price of $149. Even worse are the derivatives. The Southern Eastspring 2x long SK Hynix ETF (07709.HK) fell from a peak of HKD 193.65 on June 25 to HKD 32.7 on July 29, a drop of 83%. At its peak, this product exceeded HKD 1.3 trillion in scale and was touted as the world's largest single-equity leveraged ETF. A month has passed, exceeding 1 trillion Hong Kong dollarsThe crypto community is still digesting the PCE data, but a more direct liquidity variable has already emerged on the yen side.
On July 30, the USD/JPY pair dropped 2.6% in a single day. According to data from the Bank of Japan's accounts, the intervention scale was estimated at about 8.45 trillion yen, possibly setting a record for single-day forex market intervention.
One day later, the U.S. Treasury notified several banks through the New York Fed to prepare for follow-up actions. According to the Financial Times, the New York Fed has already executed yen-buying operations. It is quite rare for the U.S. to directly enter the market to support another country's currency.
The low-interest yen has long been used for carry trades: borrowing yen, converting it into dollars, then allocating to U.S. stocks, bonds, and high-volatility assets. A sudden appreciation of the yen could trigger a reverse contraction of leverage along this funding chain, putting selling pressure on $BTC and $ETH as well.
However, a weakening dollar usually supports dollar-denominated assets. In the same report, the dollar's weakness and carry trade liquidation are happening simultaneously, so the crypto market's reaction is not as simple as just the phrase "yen appreciation."
Going forward, one linkage to watch is whether BTC can remain stable if the yen continues to rebound. If the coin price resists decline, it indicates that the selling pressure from carry trade withdrawals is being absorbed; if both fall rapidly together, it means liquidity contraction is starting to transmit.
The next candlestick that will influence crypto sentiment might first be drawn on USD/JPY.
#日元干预战升级，美方准备介入 #谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底, in exchange for 20% equity
What does it mean for Google to experience negative free cash flow for the first time?
Alphabet's second-quarter revenue was $119.8 billion, with an operating profit of $40.77 billion, and an operating margin of 34%. Google Search and other ad revenue was $63.27 billion, YouTube ad revenue was $11.06 billion, and Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion. Several core businesses are growing, but the company's free cash flow turned negative by $5.9 billion.
The problem lies in capital expenditure.
Alphabet's operating cash flow for the quarter was $39.1 billion, with capital expenditures of $44.9 billion. Of the spending on technical infrastructure, about 60% goes to servers, and 40% to data centers and network equipment. The company also raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion, clearly stating that depreciation, energy, and data center operating expenses will continue to weigh down profits and free cash flow.
This data means Google needs to use the cash generated from search ads to fund a larger computing power system.
Search ad revenue grew 17% that quarter, remaining Alphabet's main cash source. Google Cloud grew 82%, operating profit reached $8.8 billion, and the backlog of cloud orders rose to $514 billion, with more than half expected to recognize revenue within 24 months. Nearly 90% of Fortune 100 companies already use Gemini Enterprise, and enterprise demand is not lacking.
The challenge is that revenue recognition cannot keep pace with infrastructure payments.
Data centers need to acquire land in advance, procure chips, and build power and networks. After customers sign cloud computing contracts, revenue is gradually confirmed based on actual usage or delivery schedule. When building TPU systems for customers, Google also needs to increase inventory in advance. Related agreements have already entered the backlog of cloud business orders, with major revenue not recognized until 2027, and cash outflows have already occurred.
Insufficient supply adds another layer of cost. Google plans to lease third-party data center capacity to meet enterprise customer needs first. External computing power can accelerate revenue growth but also reduce cloud business profit margins. Google must bear both the fixed asset investment for its self-built data center and third-party capacity fees, with both costs coexisting for a period of time.
Negative free cash flow will also change how Alphabet raises funds. In the second quarter, the company issued $20.3 billion in unsecured senior bonds, with long-term debt reaching $98.2 billion. Management stated during the conference call that capital needs will be jointly covered by operating cash flow, debt, and equity.
This adds a new constraint to valuation.
Investors need to assess how much cloud revenue, advertising increment, and model call revenue can generate for every dollar invested in data center capital, as well as calculate server depreciation, energy costs, third-party capacity, and financing costs. Google Cloud's 82% growth rate indicates ample demand, and $514 billion in orders indicate customers are willing to sign contracts. A negative free cash flow indicates that this business demands higher capital scale and payment cycles.
Google's core issue is already very specific: can the cash generated from search ads support cloud business expansion and achieve a sufficiently high return on capital before depreciation and financing costs fully enter the income statement?Amazon's AWS performance proves one thing: AI capital spending is not just burning money; it is indeed starting to turn into revenue.
MRVL surged to $200 during the session. I thought it was finally about to take off, but it closed back down to 187—the familiar feeling returned...... When prices rise, they make me daydream; when they fall, they help me face reality.
However, the logic hasn't broken for now—cloud vendors are still expanding, with demand for custom chips, switching chips, and optical interconnects. The biggest issue now isn't whether it has a future, but that this valuation cannot tolerate any performance mistakes.
Next week, I'll continue to look at PLTR, AMD earnings, and employment data—it feels like another sleepless week. Microsoft's earnings report completely lifts the market concerns about its biggest concerns. Both revenue and profit exceeded expectations, Azure's growth rebounded, and in after-hours trading, the stock price surged directly to around $426, up about 9%. The truly solid figures were quarterly revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year, with earnings per share of $4.81, far exceeding the expected $4.24. For a giant with annual revenue exceeding $300 billion, this growth rate is itself the strongest bullish signal. The market had long doubted whether Microsoft's quarterly investment in data centers and chips could turn into revenue, but this earnings report provided the most convincing answer. Yes. Moreover, Azure is accelerating again, indicating that AI capital expenditures are being realized as tangible cash flow. This business is indeed heavier and more expensive than traditional software, but once it works, it becomes a highly competitive money printing machine. Annual revenue was $331.8 billion, operating profit $155.2 billion. The fact that this scale can maintain double-digit growth essentially means AI commercialization has entered a positive feedback loop. Returning to $BTC and $ETH, both are currently correcting in the short term, with the $BTC at $63,066, down 1.94%, and the $ETH at $1,869, down 1.88%. But Microsoft's financial report proves that the overall logic of risk assets has not been broken; the AI narrative is shifting from storytelling to a real-money performance stage. This systemic positive effect will gradually be passed on to liquidity preferences, and capital will only have greater risk tolerance for highly volatile assets. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9% $USDT Dangerous? Tether made a staggering $1.5 billion, but its excess reserves were reduced to only $4.1 billion
#Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons
Looking at Tether's quarterly report today, the most striking thing is that it earned $1.5 billion.
Honestly, this number is just a grain of salt. Whether Tether makes money or not cannot be directly equated with the stability of the U we hold.
I'm more concerned about the latter number: excess reserves are now down to $4.11 billion. Last quarter, there was still $8.23 billion, half of the three months shorter.
Tether's current total liabilities are about $183.64 billion. In total, the proportion of extra safety cushions to liabilities dropped from about 4.5% to 2.2%. Basically, for every 100U, the extra buffer increases from $4.5 to $2.2.
Does this mean $USDT is in trouble?
At present, it's far from the point of speaking.
Most of Tether's reserves are still short-term Treasuries and repurchases, and when a group of redemptions occurs, these assets are relatively easy to convert into cash. Secured loans also decreased by $2.38 billion this quarter, which I think is actually a good move.
What troubles me a bit is gold and $BTC.
Tether bought another 14 tons of gold this quarter, bringing its total holdings to 146.2 tons, and 98,933 BTC. From Tether's perspective, these assets can hedge against inflation and make money when they rise; But from the perspective of USDT holders, the experience is different.
The 1U we hold won't become 1.1U just because BTC rises, but when BTC and gold fall, Tether's reserve value fluctuates. Since the asset side is increasingly willing to take risks, it's best to have a thicker safety cushion. Now, it's precisely because asset volatility is increasing that the safety cushion is actually thinning.
As for USDT, it only increased by $446 million this quarter, making it seem like growth has stalled. However, its share in the stablecoin market still exceeds 60%, so I tend to lean toward the overall shrinkage of the crypto market, rather than USDC suddenly taking all its users. This question will have to be addressed for at least another quarter or two.
From now on, when you look at Tether's reports, don't just focus on how much money it earns. How much U.S. Treasury and buybacks remain, and whether excess reserves continue to decline, is closer to the U in our hands than the profit figures.
If the safety cushion continues to fall next quarter, that's when you really need to consider reducing your position.
There's no need to scare yourself now, but this $4.11 billion is definitely worth noting.
#Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons "Don't laugh at ETH being expensive and slow; its best applications are hidden behind the names Arbitrum+Base+Lido+Ondo"$ETH
Many people's impressions of Ethereum applications are still stuck in 2021: "Gas 100 dollars, Cat and Dog NFTs, ENS registration .eth."
Looking back at August 2026, the most strange thing about the ETH ecosystem is that all the pearls of the application layer run on L2, with the mainnet relegated to the "settlement bodyguard."
I'll pick out four of the most representative "Best ETH Applications" for you:
1️⃣ Arbitrum — DeFi Wall Street (L2 TVL ~$19.5 billion)
Killer apps: GMX V4 (perpetual contracts), Aave V5 (L2-first model), Pendle (yield trading), Camelot Pro
The Stylus upgrade allows contracts to be written in Rust/C/C++, allowing traditional high-frequency trading companies to directly bring the algorithm on-chain
BlackRock BUIDL II and Fidelity tokenization funds were directly deployed, and RWA scale on Arbitrum surpassed $50 billion
Sequencer earns $2 million per day, with an annualized income of $700 million+
Translation: To "play big" on ETH, go to Arbitrum
2️⃣ Base — Consumer App Entry Point (L2 TVL ~$15.7 billion)
Killer apps: Farcaster (decentralized social), Zora (creator economy), Aerodrome (native DEX tops daily trading volume)
Coinbase Smart Wallet enables the first gasless transaction + FaceID/Passkey login, ending the era of seed keywords
12.9 million daily transactions, ranking first among all L2s
AI Agent applications, Creator Coins, Friend.tech 2.0 are all here
Translation: To get ordinary people to use ETH, go for Base
3️⃣ Lido — The king of liquid staking (about 9 million ETH staked)
stETH/wstETH are the most deeply integrated yield-type collateral in Ethereum DeFi
Staking gains liquidity; stETH can be borrowed from Aave, used as LP on Curve, and split into Pendle
Translation: To "hold ETH and still enjoy 3-4% annualization," Lido is the default option
4️⃣ Ondo Finance — Leading RWA tokenized government bonds
OUSG (short-term US Treasuries supported by BlackRock BUIDL), USDY (tokenized US Treasuries + yields)
Qualified users and institutions directly receive on-chain U.S. Treasury yields, settled on the ETH mainnet and applications on L2
Centrifuge, Maple, and Sky (formerly MakerDAO, issuing DAI/USDS) are in the same track
Translation: To "live off U.S. Treasury yields on-chain," Ethereum is the main battleground
Plus two more hidden champions:
Safe: The de facto standard for multisig and fund management, used by almost all DAO vaults
ENS: On-chain readable identity, domain name is an account
These four + two form Ethereum's best application matrix in 2026: Arbitrum manages payments, Base manages people, Lido manages staking, Ondo manages RWA, Safe manages governance, and ENS manages identity.
Although ETH mainnet gas has dropped, it's still not suitable for beginners. New users mostly enter through Base/Coinbase gateways, and the mainnet is "invisible" to them—this is both good (abstract) and bad (ETH ontology captures value indirectly).
After L2 fee compression, mainnet burn volume decreased, ETH's deflationary narrative weakened, and prices found more reliance on RWA/institutional adoption rather than pure burning
The ZK Rollup track (Scroll, zkSync, Linea) is still transitioning to Stage 0/1, and completely trustless ZK L2s will take time. Currently, Arbitrum/Base is still a compromise
$ETH Why is Microsoft's AI narrative working?
Concerns about Microsoft in the market have persisted all year—whether the hundreds of billions of dollars invested annually in AI can translate into actual profits. This financial report provides the answer. Azure's annualized revenue has surpassed $100 billion for the first time. Microsoft 365 Copilot subscriptions have exceeded 30 million seats. The total remaining performance obligations amount to $678 billion, far exceeding the expected $647.6 billion.
Among the five AI hyperscale cloud service providers, Microsoft has the lowest reliance on debt. After Google raised capital expenditures, its stock price fell; Meta's stock dropped 8% after turning cash flow negative; Amazon increased spending by $220 billion but AWS proved itself. Microsoft is taking a different path—maintaining capital expenditures at the same level and letting existing investments generate returns. The market's pricing logic for Microsoft is clear: if a company can invest hundreds of billions annually in AI and still maintain $19.6 billion in free cash flow, the market is willing to give it the highest premium.
Microsoft's market value has reached $3.35 trillion. A company increasing by $450 billion in one day—this is not an ordinary earnings season; this is the market redefining valuation standards for the AI era. Whoever can prove AI profitability at the lowest cost will receive the highest valuation. Microsoft has proven this. #微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 July 30th was a watershed moment for the AI narrative. Microsoft rose 15%, Meta fell 8%. On the same day, Nvidia also rose nearly 3%.
The difference is that Microsoft and Nvidia have already proven that AI can make money. Azure's growth rate of 43% and Copilot's 30 million subscription seats show that customers are indeed paying. Nvidia's H100 and B100 orders are booked through 2027, indicating real demand for computing power. Meta's metaverse and AI investments are still in the money-burning stage, with no clear monetization path in sight.
An analyst from Zacks Investment said Microsoft's earnings report provided new evidence that massive investments in AI are beginning to pay off, easing market concerns that data center and computing infrastructure spending might exceed demand. Wall Street's question has shifted from "Is AI a bubble?" to "Which companies' AI investments will generate returns?" The answer is partially written in the market performance on July 30th. What remains to be seen is whether Alphabet and Amazon's earnings reports in September can continue this trend. If they can, the AI narrative will dominate the market again. If not, the bullish move on July 30th may just be a rebound, not a reversal.
#微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 Weak guidance, increased capital expenditure, negative cash flow — why did Amazon's stock rise?
After the market closed on July 30, Amazon released a financial report that seemingly shouldn't have caused a stock increase. Q2 total revenue was $200.6 billion, net profit was $62.6 billion, and EPS far exceeded the market expectation of $1.82. AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters.
But on the other hand, there was only bad news. Q3 revenue guidance is $197 billion to $202 billion, below Wall Street's expectation of $203.9 billion. Capital expenditure was raised from $200 billion to $220 billion. Free cash flow turned negative over the past 12 months, with a net outflow of $7.6 billion. Yet Amazon's stock rose 9% after hours.
Of the $62.6 billion net profit, $53.4 billion is unrealized gains from equity investments in companies like Anthropic, which is different from the $27.5 billion operating profit earned from Amazon's product sales and cloud services. More noteworthy is AWS's operating profit of $16.6 billion, up over 60% year-over-year, with profit margin jumping from 32.9% to 39.4%. AWS's "rent-collecting" model has changed — besides selling computing power, it is also selling model invocation rights. The Bedrock platform allows customers to call APIs of major models, turning AWS from a "compute landlord" into a "model sublessor." The market now prices AWS not as a "cloud service provider" but as an "AI infrastructure platform." #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% AWS is the real logic behind Amazon's recent surge
Wall Street's reaction this time essentially learned to break down Amazon's profit statement. Operating profit looks at "whether you can make money now," and investment income looks at "whether you have chips in hand for the future." That 53.4 billion unrealized gain cannot be called inflated—it is Amazon's early stake laid in the AI industry chain. The more valuable Anthropic becomes, the more model calls on Bedrock, and the thicker AWS's revenue.
AWS's AI business annualized revenue scale has exceeded $25 billion, maintaining triple-digit year-over-year growth. AWS's own operating profit margin has reached 39.4%, 6.5 percentage points higher than 32.9% in the same period last year.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy stated that most of the $220 billion capital expenditure will be used in the AI field. This year, AI-related investments by large U.S. tech companies are expected to exceed $700 billion. The market once worried about "overbuilding AI infrastructure," but Amazon gave the market a clear answer with AWS's growth rate and profit margin—AI capital expenditure is converting into revenue, and the conversion speed is accelerating. #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% Crowding and Crowding List
Payment is just the starting point; the key is whether the price improves after payment.
$MMT Current rate -0.1580%, closing -0.585% in the past 24 hours, at the 1% percentile of the most recent sample. Prices are rising, and positions are also rising, with short-term funds expanding their risk exposure. Short side costs are high, and price positions are expanding upward; If the pullback fails to break through, the pressure will remain on the bearish side.
$SNXX Current rate +0.0741%, closed in the past 24 hours +0.124%, at the 81st th percentile of the most recent sample. Prices have rebounded but risk exposure has narrowed, making the market more like a recovery after releasing positions. The crowding indicator remains, but risk exposure is decreasing, so let's deleverage this section for now.
$AEON Current rate -0.0739%, closed in the past 24 hours -0.487%, placing it at the 28th percentile of the most recent sample. Reducing positions after a 15-minute rise is more like a push for short position filling or overall withdrawal, with new bullish positions yet to be confirmed. No matter how extreme the rate rate, the most certain factor in OI contraction is still deleveraging; You can't draw conclusions about which side will exit based solely on this data.Meta and Microsoft released earnings on the same day, one dropped 8%, the other hit a record
Meta, which released earnings on the same day, is in a completely different situation. Meta expects free cash flow to turn negative for the first time since its 2012 IPO in the second half of the year, its stock price plummeted 8%, falling for the 11th consecutive trading day, setting the longest losing streak on record.
Both are heavily investing in AI, but Meta's debt is expanding while Microsoft's balance sheet remains clean. Microsoft's Q4 free cash flow was $19.6 billion, Meta's was less than $800 million. A partner at Cresset said: "The market has realized this trend cannot continue forever, they need to start delivering revenue growth."
The market's attitude toward the AI narrative has changed—it no longer pays for "we are investing in AI," but starts paying for "we are already making money from AI." Amazon and Microsoft have proven that AI investments can generate returns; Meta has not yet proven this. This divide will become increasingly apparent over the next few quarters. #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% PCE turned negative for the first time in six years, but how long can this breath last?
On July 30, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce briefly breathed a sigh of relief for the market. The June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly negative growth since 2020, with the year-on-year increase narrowing from 4.1% to 3.7%. Core PCE rose only 0.1% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.2%, and fell from 3.4% to 3.3% year-on-year.
The direct reason for the negative turn is that oil prices have dropped, and the drop in oil prices is due to the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. But everyone knows the fragility of the ceasefire agreement: the core differences between the US and Iran have not been resolved, and oil prices remain above $90. This inflation cooling, supported by short-term declines in energy prices, could be reversed at any time if geopolitical conditions change again. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% GDP figures may not look good, but domestic demand hasn't collapsed
The annualized GDP growth rate in Q2 was 1.5%, lower than Q1's 2.1% and also below market expectations of 2.0%. On the surface, it looks like the economy is slowing down, but breaking it down reveals a completely different story. Net exports were the main drag, dragging down by 1 percentage point. The widening trade deficit is mainly driven by the import rush effect and AI-related imports, which is different from weak domestic demand.
After excluding net exports and inventory fluctuations, the growth rate of private consumption + fixed investment, which measures real domestic demand, rebounded from 2.1% in the first quarter to 3.9%. Household consumption growth rebounded sharply from 0.5% to 3.2%, contributing 2.1 percentage points to GDP. The consumption recovery is partly due to short-term factors like tax rebates and the World Cup, so its sustainability is questionable, but at least it shows that consumers have not yet given up. Although AI-related investment growth slowed from 34.4% to 7.1%, non-AI equipment investment showed significant improvement, with residential investment turning positive for the first time in five quarters. Federal Reserve Chairman Wash's exact words were: the resilience of the U.S. economy is "impressive." #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% Even Strategy is preparing to sell BTC, so this wave of "corporate coin hoarding" may be about to reverse
In the past two years, listed companies buying BTC was a positive sign.
Now, more and more companies are starting to sell coins, pay off debts, and even shift their business to AI.
More notably, Strategy has authorized the sale of up to about $5 billion worth of BTC when needed, to replenish cash reserves, pay interest and dividends, and buy back shares. It has already sold part of its BTC this year, rather than just buying without selling.
This made me worry about a problem:
In the past, people treated "company holding BTC" as a permanent lock-up, but now they realize companies are not believers; companies must survive first.
When stock prices are high and financing is smooth, they can keep issuing shares and buying coins.
But once the stock price falls, debts mature, and cash flow tightens, BTC may shift from a "strategic asset" to the easiest asset to sell. Some Bitcoin treasury companies have already begun reducing holdings, repaying debts, and even shifting to AI data center businesses.
So when I see a company announce it is buying BTC in the future, I won't just look at how much it has purchased.
I'm more curious to see where its money comes from, when the debt will mature, and whether it can withstand a drop in the price of the coin.
I may sound harsh, but the real risk this round isn't necessarily retail investors cutting losses, but companies being forced to sell their coins.
Do you think companies are hoarding coins, long-term benefits, or the next potential selling pressure?
$BTC
$BTC #Strategy #企业囤币 Cooling inflation + slowing GDP = the Fed is even more conflicted
Looking at the two data points side by side, the Fed's situation actually becomes even more complicated. The cooling of PCE gives a reason to hold back, but the core PCE of 3.3% is still far from the 2% target, having exceeded the target for six consecutive years. The slowdown in GDP growth provides reasons not to raise rates, but the resilience of domestic demand also indicates that the economy is not that bad and does not need to be saved by rate cuts.
After the data was released, the two-year Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points, the US dollar index remained largely flat, and S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1%. The market's response was very restrained. What the market is truly concerned about now is whether oil prices will jump again due to the US-Iran situation. If oil prices return above $100, this PCE data will be meaningless. Before September, there are two CPI and one PCE; whichever data exceeds expectations will raise the probability of a rate hike again. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% On August 1st, the divergence between the big bing and the Nasdaq finally broke down.
The Nasdaq surged for two consecutive days, with Amazon surging 15% in one day, Nvidia up nearly 3%, and tech stocks celebrating.
What about Bitcoin? It slid straight from 64,500 to around 63,200, dropping more than 3% overnight.
Both sides went their separate ways. A few months ago, the Bitcoin market and the Nasdaq still had some linkage, but on the first day of August, this linkage was completely broken by the market.
The logic is simple—the Fed hasn't softened yet. Powell's phrase, "Rate cuts still require evidence of sustained inflation decline," translated into plain language—interest rates won't come down anytime soon. If Bitcoin doesn't yield interest, the higher the rate rises, the higher the opportunity cost of holding it. U.S. stocks can surge through AI narratives, but Bitcoin has no scapegoat to hold it up and can only bear it alone. If U.S. stocks rise but not follow the big pie, if they fall, they're likely to follow. This is the most awkward situation right now.
In the short term, 63,000 is the first line of defense; if broken, it would be 62,000 or even 60,000. At this level, chasing long or short is tough; watch more, move less, and wait for the direction to emerge on its own $ETH On August 8, about $1.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire, with strike prices concentrated between 62,000 and 66,000.
The timing was quite tricky—it happened to be next Friday, just one week away.
Concentrated expiry of this scale usually begins to suppress prices a week before expiration, as market makers need to adjust their hedging positions. Moreover, after the maturity on August 8, there will be an even larger batch on August 29, with a scale of about 2.2 billion yuan. With options totaling 4 billion yuan from two expiration dates, it's highly likely that Bitcoin will be held in the 62,000-65,000 range for a while. To break through 66,000 or even surpass 70,000, you need to settle this batch of options first.
Before the direction is determined, don't overdo your position. Watch after options delivery next Friday. In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to hover between 62,000 and 65,000, and only judge the direction after these options are settled. $ETH After Becent's tweet address, the bill text still hasn't reached Majority Leader Thune's desk.
The parliament recessed on August 8, and this window is basically the last chance.
The direct consequence of the bill's failure is that the SEC has declared it will draft its own crypto market rules. Regulators write their own rules, and the uncertainty is greater than the bill's passage. What institutions fear most is uncertainty. The fact that the Bitcoin 64,000 has been flat for so long is partly because the regulatory framework has always been suspended.
The bill's blockage has a smaller impact on Bitcoin than other tokens—BTC has already been classified as a commodity by both the SEC and CFTC, and spot ETFs have already been approved. So just a couple of days ago, ETFs were still seeing net inflows, with $212 million coming in, but the price didn't keep up. ETFs are buying, spot is selling, and both forces are clashing within the same price range.
$ETH The total market capitalization of stablecoins has been shrinking for three consecutive weeks.
The total supply of USDT and USDC has shrunk by about 1.4% from its mid-July peak.
The amount of contraction is not large, but the direction and trend are worth noting.
The money spent outside the market waiting to buy pancakes hasn't increased; in fact, it's decreasing.
Institutions are buying Bitcoin through ETFs, but off-exchange funds are not coming in to take over; instead, they are withdrawing.
Brent crude oil hit $90.57 today, up nearly 4% in 24 hours. If oil prices continue to rise in the next few days, the market will likely remain under pressure. Before you get the right direction, watch more and move less. If it breaks below 63,000, reduce your position; wait until 60,000-61,000 before looking again. Follow once the direction comes out, no betting on direction.
$ETH The liquidation heatmap is one of the most powerful tools in a trader's arsenal, providing a window into market psychology and leveraged players' positions. When you understand where your main leverage is concentrated, you can anticipate potential price movements and adjust your positions accordingly. Now, Ethereum's liquidation heatmap is telling a fascinating story about the current state of the market and where it might go next. The largest leveraged wall is at $1,850. This is a huge position concentration zone, and if the price falls to this level, these positions face liquidation risk. The heatmap shows this area as a dense cluster of liquidity, indicating that liquidation prices for a large number of leveraged long positions are concentrated near this price. The market has become aware of this, which could also become a factor influencing price action in the coming days. Even more noteworthy, the price has been consolidating between $1,850 and $2,000 for two weeks. This range is becoming a key battleground for both bulls and bears. The longer the consolidation lasts, the greater the pressure accumulated on both sides of the market. Crucially, the area below $1,850 is growing larger as more leveraged bulls set stop-losses below. Each rebound is bought by traders expecting a breakout upside, with their stop-losses piling up below the range. My forecast, based on liquidation heatmaps and the broader market context, is that before any real rise to $2,000 or higher, we will see a dip to $1,850 first. This is the classic market scenario: prices will go down, sweeping away leverageThe Korean stock market recorded a historic single-day gain, with SK Hynix hitting a historic 30% daily limit during trading, with an extreme shift in sentiment occurring amid a bearish stamp.
After a mechanical sell-off that forced the liquidation of hundreds of thousands of leveraged accounts within a month, the liquidity of the spot market's selling orders was instantly exhausted.
Foreign bottom-fishing funds and short covering merged in a very short time, instantly boosting the buying density of index heavyweight stocks.
The selling pressure vacuum created by the leverage clearing directly led to subsequent buying surge without resistance, even without counterparty bidding.
If US tech giants continue to confirm capital expenditure growth, it will attract continued inflows of overseas passive funds. However, if spot trading volume cannot maintain an amplifying trend within three trading days, the rebound momentum will be exhausted.
If retail investors rapidly accumulate highly leveraged derivatives again, the market may trigger mechanical liquidations again when facing external macro fluctuations, and the index holding today's gap gap would signal that this path does not hold.
If the disclosed flow of funds in the coming days shows that foreign capital buying is only for short-term arbitrage rather than long-term positions, the current logic of liquidity recovery will be disproven.
The most important variable to watch over the next seven days is the change in margin trading balances at $SKHYNIX, which determines whether leveraged funds are regrouping.
#白宫回应将决定CLARITY法案下周能否投票 #以太坊主网十一周年: Eleven years of uninterrupted operation and ecosystem achievements. #Coldcard漏洞发酵, over a thousand BTC stolen#日元干预战升级，美方准备介入
The US and Japan join forces to suppress the yen, crypto market faces a "deleveraging shock"
On July 30-31, the US, Japan, and South Korea conducted a rare coordinated intervention in the foreign exchange market. Japan sold over 8 trillion yen worth of dollars in a single day (a historic record), and the US Treasury directly entered the market to buy yen — the first time in nearly 30 years. The USD/JPY rate was hammered from 163 down to 157.8, while Bitcoin simultaneously fell below $63,000, dropping 4.5% in 12 hours, with $240 million liquidated across the network.
Core transmission chain: Yen carry trade
· Borrowing low-interest yen to buy high-yield assets (including BTC) is a mainstream strategy
· Rapid yen appreciation causes carry traders to incur exchange losses → forced to liquidate risky assets → triggering a chain of deleveraging
· This explains why Bitcoin fell as the yen rebounded
But has the trend reversed? Not necessarily.
The Bank of Japan maintained its 1% interest rate on July 31, with the US-Japan interest rate differential still over 2.5 percentage points. As long as the spread does not narrow, carry trade profits remain, and intervention can only suppress the yen short-term without reversing the trend. The yen quickly rebounded above 160, and Bitcoin is more likely to enter a range-bound phase rather than a one-sided crash. $BTC
Advice for brothers:
From now on, add "Bank of Japan policy" and "US-Japan interest rate differential" to your macro monitoring list. Their impact on liquidity is no less than Fed rate hikes. Be cautious in the short term, watch the interest rate spread in the medium term — if the Bank of Japan unexpectedly turns hawkish, that will be the real second shock.
Hold your positions, don’t be forced out by volatility. 兄弟们，OMI 今天涨了 13.59%，现价 0.0001821 美元。自阶段高点 $0.0084 下跌 98% 之后，迎来一轮超跌修复。 OMI 是 VeVe 数字藏品平台原生代币，平台拥有漫威、DC、迪士尼、星球大战等顶级官方 IP 数字藏品。VeVe 累计数字藏品销售额超 10 亿美元，覆盖 180 个国家，持续推出新品与品牌合作，项目生态持续运营。 本轮上涨逻辑：平台持续运营叠加深度超跌；OMI 兑换 Gems 通道打通，用户兑换行为驱动代币销毁，当前累计销毁超 103 亿枚 OMI，成为市场主要叙事。 但三大结构性压力长期存在： 总量庞大，最大供应量 7500 亿枚，当前流通 2700–2800 亿枚，持续销毁很难快速改善供需； 流动性极度稀薄，24 小时成交额仅 18.7 万美元，少量资金即可造成双位数涨跌，涨跌都具备高爆发力； 代币销毁力度完全依托藏品发售热度，市场下行阶段平台流水下滑，通缩预期同步减弱。同时大量平台收藏家并不参与链上代币交易，用户流量难以转化为稳定买盘。 链上筹码集中，前五大地址持有流通量 45%，大户抛压隐患持续存在。 关键价位： 阻力$0.00020Our ALD community paid Sesame and joined Gate as Alpha. To collect more money for the main version of ALD, they not only added conditions but also told us that the ones connecting with us weren't Sesame staff. Is that even possible?
As a leading industry leader, Gate needs to work with our community to maintain industry transparency and credibility. Please pay attention to the official management: "Regarding the listing of Gate and the ALD community."
[1] How did the scammer make us log in to alpha?
[2] Are you using scam funds for promotions?
[3] Which staff member received the event token?
[4] Who connected to our ALD project
[5] Which staff member received the event token? The first day of August has just begun, and the bulls have already taken a heavy hit. As of 12:30 Beijing time, $BTC's lowest price had dropped to $62,457, then returned to around $63,050; $ETH also fell back to $1,870, while HYPE dropped by about 5%. The overall market appears weak, but if you look at different coins separately, you'll find that their actual performance is not exactly the same. Not all coins crashed at the same time in this round. BTC and ETH showed clear weakness, but OKB, BNB, and DOGE held relatively well, indicating that funds in the market have not completely withdrawn but are choosing among different coins. The macro data also shows some contradictions. The US PCE price index for June fell 0.1% month-on-month, indicating that inflation has indeed cooled to some extent; However, core PCE still remains 3.3% year-on-year. U.S. GDP grew only 1.5% in the second quarter, ostensibly slowing down, but indicators reflecting U.S. private demand increased by 3.9%. If we put these figures in a more easy-to-understand way in the crypto world, it means the pressure from rate hikes has temporarily eased a bit, but the market's expectations for a 'liquidity easing rally' are still far off. The market itself has expectations of a rise, but lacks clear reasons from this set of data. For the current $BTC, the most important to watch is $62,450