Orbit Post Sitemap

$SUI SHORT SHORT Trend Continuation Price: 0.6870 (+0.57%) The primary trigger for this setup is the bearish trend and the price action below the SMA25 In: 0.6850 | SL: 0.7050 | TP: 0.6450 ⚖️ Balanced risk. Stay disciplined. R:R ≈ 2.0x #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 2026-8-2 - There's a very popular joke online—if you spent it in 2015 He spent ten thousand dollars to buy ETH, and by now, it has become $200 million. It sounded easy: "Just hold onto it." ” But if you really lay out the profit curve, you'll find those 100,000 points ETH's journey is simply beyond what a person can endure: 10,000 to 1,000,000 to 14,000,000≥ 393,000 1.2 million 93 million 5.3 million 323 million 54 million out of 200 million Ask yourself one more question: Can you really hold on? #$BTC Fundamental Research Report $RIO / Realio Network (RWA) $3.20 Essentially: Realio Network ($RIO) has an overall score of 59/100, with a narrative that emphasizes implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented. Fundamental analysis: Realio Network (token $RIO), RWA sector. Focusing on real estate RWA tokenization. Benchmarked against CFG and ONDO. Traditional SME receivable financing goes through bank factoring, with approval times of 30-90 days and interest rates of 12%-24%, making it slow to receive funds. On-chain asset ownership is transparent, LP pools release funds instantly, and RWA assets can be traded twice to enhance liquidity. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days. At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment. On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Comparing with peers (unified standards, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Realio Network $3.00B, CFG undisclosed, ONDO undisclosed. For FDV, Realio Network $4.20B, CFG undisclosed, ONDO undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Realio Network $2.00M, CFG undisclosed, ONDO undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Realio Network has not disclosed this, CFG has not disclosed, and ONDO has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Overall: Solid fundamentals (rating 59/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Potential pitfalls: short-term large-scale unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. Derived from publicly available data, not investment advice. Core indicators changed by more than 30%, conclusions were invalid. That's all for now. If you have any thoughts, see you in the comments. #基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit $OKB 🪝 当前盘面：$OKB 86.92，区间持续震荡磨盘，很多人依旧用老眼光看待OKB，仅仅把它当成交易所手续费抵扣凭证。事实上，OKB早已完成一轮底层价值重构，如果还用传统平台币逻辑去定价，很容易错过主线叙事变化。一、过去与现在：两代OKB根本不是一个叙事旧逻辑：CEX附属权益通证，价值高度绑定现货、合约交易量，依靠季度回购销毁支撑预期，天花板受限于交易所业务规模。新逻辑：总量永久锁定2100万枚，无新增铸造；正式承担X Layer zkEVM原生Gas代币。这是最核心的分水岭：需求来源不再只有交易所内部用户，未来叠加链上DeFi、RWA、Web3支付带来持续性链上消耗。很多人忽略那次历史性销毁：一次性销毁6526万枚，直接锁定总量上限，对标BTC稀缺模型。赛道里绝大多数平台币依旧存在持续流通释放、无硬性供给天花板，OKB率先完成供给侧改革，从“持续回购托价”走向天然稀缺+链上持续消耗的双通缩结构。二、两大需求飞轮，支撑中长期估值 1、中心化交易所基本盘（安全底线） VIP手续费折扣、Jumpstart打新质押、理财增益权益，持续沉淀长期持 On-chain data doesn't deceive people, but people use on-chain data to fool themselves I recently learned a lesson Seeing net inflows makes you want to rush; seeing unstaking makes you want to run But the data often leads them in the opposite direction Later, I realized that data is just the result, not the reason Then guess what Today, when I put several sets of on-chain data together, it actually becomes clearer Tether earned $1.5 billion in a single quarter, with gold piles reaching 146 tons This shows that the stablecoin sector is truly expanding HYPE has been released from stake over 100 million yuan, but Japanese companies are entering the market for the first time to take over Smart money quietly changes hands amid disagreements Looking at the Korean KOSPI, which surged 14% intraday, setting a new record Retail investors criticized the government for turning the stock market into a casino while rushing in This extreme risk appetite can spill over Money moving from bank has to find a place to go So my judgment is that now is not to focus on a single data point to draw conclusions If you want to look at it, look at it systematically: stablecoins are increasing, risk appetite is rising, and pledging is being accepted When these three lines come together, emotions are warming up rather than collapsing I bought the dip in batches, not chasing the single-day gains, waiting for rotation to be my turn There are a few other hot topics worth discussing today: #Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons Tether earned $1.5 billion in a single quarter and held 146 tons of gold—a figure that's considered a giant in traditional finance. The heavier the stablecoin issuer earns, the more real the market demand for stablecoins, and the larger the capital pool behind it. This is a slow-moving positive for the crypto world, meaning off-exchange money continues to flow into this system Last night I saw a seemingly insignificant piece of news, flipped through the whitepaper, and felt something was about to happen Originally, I was just casually scrolling before bed But then I saw that the affected Coldcard models had expanded I quickly got up and checked my wallet settings Confirmed that my model wasn't on the list, so I dared to turn off the light and sleep And guess what This morning, the news is even more intense than last night The 30-year US Treasury yield hit a 19-year high again The US is still preparing to strike Iranian energy facilities, and the embassy has issued an evacuation warning Each of these is a major event that can influence the market I'm a cautious person, and in situations like this, I become even more alert High US Treasury yields indicate the market is still worried about long-term inflation and debt issuance Geopolitical tensions are on the brink of erupting; if oil prices get triggered, the whole world will shake And the Coldcard issue reminds me: security is always more important than returns So my judgment is, in this turbulent season Better to keep positions light than heavy, holding cash in hand is safe BTC at 63,459 looks okay, but don’t be fooled by small gains into heavy positions Wait for these two ticking bombs—US Treasury yields and geopolitical risks—to clear before considering an offensive move I glanced at today’s news and want to highlight a few points: #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 The 30-year US Treasury yield hitting a 19-year high shows that market concerns about long-term fiscal and inflation risks haven’t eased at all. US Treasury yields anchor risk asset pricing; the higher they go, the lower the valuation ceiling for stocks and crypto. This isn’t something resolved overnight, so I treat it as a pressure line hanging over our heads—keep some reserve even during rebounds. #美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警 With the option to strike Iranian energy facilities on the table, oil prices and risk-off sentiment could spike anytime. If action is taken, disruption in the energy supply chain will cause global risk assets to plunge first and then recover, and the crypto market will very likely follow with sharp drops. I don’t bet on a war scenario, just prepare: if things go south, reduce leverage and hold cash. #Coldcard漏洞发酵，受影响机型扩大 The Coldcard vulnerability has fermented from the theft of thousands of BTC to now expanding affected models, indicating this is not an isolated incident but a systemic issue in the product line. When hardware wallets have such problems, it further proves the old saying: private key security and device supply chain security are both indispensable. I’ve already made a migration checklist and am preparing to move coins that aren’t urgent. $BTC $ETH #安全 #宏观 ⚠️ Note: ⚠️ Bitcoin is about to enter a major rally! Coin Bureau reported The United States and Japan may be preparing a major move to strengthen the yen, expected to be announced tomorrow. This is a double-edged sword for the crypto market ✅ Favorable Pathways (Mild Intervention Scenarios) The US and Japanese dollar sold off and bought the yen→ weakening the US dollar index. As the dollar falls, Bitcoin and gold, which are denominated in US dollars, will find support and rise, benefiting tech stocks as well. ⚠️ Major risk points (violent rapid intervention, the most vigilant matter) There is a huge global trade: yen carry trades Investors borrow low-cost yen to buy Bitcoin, US stocks, and various high-yield assets. If the yen surges rapidly and sharply in the short term: The cost of borrowing suddenly skyrocketed, with many institutions closing positions or selling their stocks and cryptocurrencies to repay yen loans This triggered a global sell-off of risk assets Bitcoin will be slashed down as a result So the speed of intervention determines everything 1. Slowly pulling the yen back: This is positive for $BTC $ETH; 2. Aggressive Yen Surge: Carry markets stamp out and flee, turning into major negative news. Tomorrow will witness this market rally...... On the same chart, last time I profited, this time I lost Same location, same form Last time, I went in decisively and got some meat This time I hesitated for a moment, then missed it perfectly I stared at the candlestick all afternoon thinking: Has the chart changed, or has the person changed? Then guess what I realized that what changed was the outside world On the yen side, the US directly entrusted Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to intervene Google is willing to trade 20% equity for debt to cover its AI data centers The CLARITY bill missed the recess window again, and whether it can vote next week is uncertain These are macro and policy things It may seem distant at first, but every line is actually rewriting the flow of funds Yen intervention affects global carry trades Google's bottom line influences the valuation logic of tech stocks The bill's delays affect expectations for overall crypto compliance So my judgment is: don't just focus on candlesticks The same pattern can have completely opposite outcomes under different macro contexts Before I start trading, I first ask myself: Has the water outside changed? If you act without thinking it through, your last tuition fee will have been wasted Looking through today's plate, there are a few interesting points: #美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元 The US outsourced its intervention in the yen to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, essentially turning the exchange rate war into institutional manipulation. Once the yen moves, global carry trades have to be repriced, and risk assets shake along with it. This has an indirect impact on the crypto world, but the direction cannot be ignored. Once the yen stabilizes, the flow of US Treasuries and the dollar will calm down. #谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底, exchange Google is trading 20% equity for AI data center debt as a safety net—a pretty aggressive move, essentially shifting financing risks onto Google's balance sheet. Data centers are the lifeblood of the AI arms race. Some people guarantee it means giants will continue burning cash, which is positive for computing power and also shows that the AI capital spending bubble hasn't burst yet. #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 The CLARITY bill missing the recess window means the legislative pace for crypto compliance has been delayed again. In the short term, negative expectations have been disappointed, and the market may be slightly disappointed, but in the medium term, the framework of the bill is still progressing, just slowly. I don't treat it as a major bad news or big positive, but as a reason to continue observing. $BTC $ETH #宏观 #政策 $KOMA 内幕地址持续出货中，值得注意的是这个地址靠$AKE 和koma各自完成10倍和2倍的盈利，目前已经将大部分代币转入交易所进行抛售了，链上集群也已经完成分发同样一直在出售代币，跌幅是止不住的！My first contract experience was a 5-minute liquidation You might not believe it That day, I didn't even understand what a deposit was So I clicked open position, but with a single injection, my account was instantly reset to zero From then on, I understood one thing: don't touch something you don't understand Then guess what Now I've learned my lesson: before opening a position, I check the financial report calendar Because the earnings report is the real big bomb this week Next week, there will be four major earnings announcements, with Circle as the grand finale SPCX's first earnings report is about to be released, with a hundred billion dollars locked in the market looming behind it Microsoft extended the depreciation period to 25 years and lowered its capital expenditure guidance The tightness of tech giants' wallets directly determines the outlook of the US stock market The US stock market shivered, and the crypto world sneezed along with it I flipped through history Every time earnings season is inserted, the lever is cut before the direction is taken So my judgment is: don't rush to go all out this week Before the financial report is released, keep your position light and set your stop-loss farther away It's not too late to wait until the direction comes out before heading in There are a few more noteworthy topics today, so let's talk about them together: #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted SPCX's first earnings report and the unlocking of hundreds of billions are one of the biggest mysteries next week. Unlocking does not mean immediate sell-off, but the cost and sentiment of major shareholders can affect the pace of selling pressure, and financial reports directly determine expectations. I don't touch leverage on these stocks; I just watch the show with small spot positions and wait until the direction becomes clearer before deciding. #财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale Four earnings reports were held on the same day, with Circle being the grand finale—the density is really exciting. Crypto-related companies' earnings reports have an increasingly direct impact on the crypto world. Better-than-expected earnings can boost sentiment, while falling short of expectations is just an excuse for a pullback. I plan to avoid heavy positions at the earnings window and first observe market pricing patterns. #折旧年限延至25年, Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance was lowered Microsoft extended the depreciation period to 25 years and lowered its capital expenditure guidance. In other words, this approach means thickening profits and slowing down AI-driven cash burn. The cloud computing power narrative signals a cooling down; short-term positive earnings numbers but negative growth stories are bearish, so it's normal for the AI sector in the crypto world to catch its breath. $BTC $ETH #财报 #美股 Even though it's bad news, the price keeps rising—I sense an opportunity When I was scrolling through the news at noon, I was completely stunned Trump has canceled the strike against Iran, and Saudi Arabia is mediating But the Iranian military retorted: "Their claim of a ceasefire is a lie." This script makes me laugh—one moment it eases, the next it continues to fight head-on Then guess what BTC 63,459, up 0.72% in 24 hours With the news bombing like this, Da Bing actually stood up I flipped through it carefully The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, and risk assets should be trembling The Korean KOSPI surged 14% intraday, marking the largest single-day gain in history The US stock market is going crazy, and the crypto side is also recovering Funding rates for BTC turned positive, and ETH also broke out of the bearish zone Bears are clearly pulling out, while bulls are quietly testing positions So my judgment is that this wave is not a reversal It feels more like a recovery after all the negative news has passed Above 65,000, the intensity of 478 million short orders is being pressed down; only a real breakout will bring a big drama At this level, I don't panic if it drops, and I don't chase when it rises Setting up ambushes in batches is more comfortable than going all-in Let's also chat about a few trending topics to see if any of them are worth following: #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 With US Treasury yields so high, global risk assets theoretically come under pressure, but today the crypto world is clearly desensitized. My understanding is that the market has priced in high interest rates for a long time; the real variables are liquidity and sentiment recovery. The bond market data alone won't scare the market for now; let's just treat it as background for now. #美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy was withdrawn When the alarm goes off in the morning, the first thing I do isn't get up, but check the coin price Then I sat on the bed and sorted through today's plates BTC 62924, barely moving ETH 1852, slightly down SOL 72.4, down less than 1% Then guess what On the surface, everything is calm, but underneath, there are all things going on The yen intervention war has escalated, and the US is preparing to intervene The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury hit a 19-year high, reaching 5.27% The White House's response will determine whether the CLARITY bill can be voted on next week Each piece alone can shake the market repeatedly But when they come together, the big cake actually stands firm This was my biggest impression this morning: the market was holding back a big move The longer the sideways move, the stronger the change Before the direction is decided, everything you do is just guessing So I set three rules for myself No increasing positions, no cutting positions, no contracts touched Just watch the scene with the bottom warehouse and wait for the direction to come out on its own So my judgment is: today is most likely still volatile, with real action in the CLARITY vote and the Fed. During a sideways phase, patience is key; controlling your position is more important than controlling your position Let's also chat about a few trending topics to see if any of them are worth following: #美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元 Once currency intervention intensifies, carry trades will shrink, and global risk assets will tremble along with it. Historically, when the yen fluctuated, crypto usually fell first and then stabilized. Since it's not yet the most intense period, I'll lighten my positions and wait for the exchange rate to stabilize #30年期美债收益率创19年新 Others make money trading coins, I trade coins and pay tuition fees Today, the tuition was paid with full clarity Watch M rise 66.7%, META up 50% My PEANUT shares have dropped by 14.9%. WIF also fell 4.8% Then guess what I reviewed it and found that the meme coin environment has really changed Coldcard vulnerability escalates, over a thousand BTC stolen Capital's sensitivity to risk events is increasing PCE turns negative, GDP growth slows to 1.5% Macro conditions are cooling down, and overall market risk appetite is shrinking On the Korean side, however, it soared 14%, but that was an extreme market rally, not much related to meme coins Simply put, meme coins rely on emotion and liquidity When liquidity contracts, they are the first to die The ones that have dropped the hardest recently are all the ones that rose the most before This is not a coincidence, but a law So my judgment is: don't touch memes in the short term; chasing meme coins during emotional cooldowns is just giving money to others. If you really want to play, wait until the market stabilizes and sentiment picks up. If you have what you have, reduce it when it rebounds—don't be stingy Finally, let's talk about today's market hotspots, with several directions worth watching: #Coldcard漏洞发酵, the number of affected aircraft has expanded A hardware wallet losing a thousand BTC is even more terrifying than an exchange crash, because it undermines everyone's confidence in self-custody. When emotions panic, meme coins are the first to crash, purely emotional assets. During security incidents, risk control comes first #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% With macro data cooling and risk appetite shrinking, highly elastic assets like meme coins have been hit the hardest. PCE turning negative is a double-edged sword for the market in the short term, but sentiment is clearly cautious. In this environment, holding cash is more secure than holding meme coins; don't rush to buy the dip #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history Extreme stock market surges can drain some risk capital, while meme coins end up being drained. KOSPI's 14% daily rally is unsustainable; once it pulls back, funds may return to crypto. In the short term, it's best to wait and see for meme coins $PEANUT $WIF #Meme #风险 AI的“烧钱竞赛”，正在进入残酷的淘汰阶段。本季科技巨头财报的走势，用一句话概括就是：市场正在惩罚盲目烧钱，奖励理性支出。三巨头财报表现：微软——赢家，股价收涨近16%，市值单日暴增4500亿美元四年最快云业务增速表态控制新增资本支出市场解读：AI投入正在转化为收入亚马逊——赢家，股价收涨15% 云业务收入乐观，增速创四年新高缓解了市场对巨额AI支出回报的担忧 Meta——输家，盘后一度大跌8% 季度营收指引令人失望自由现金流录得多年来最低水平 AI押注导致费用激增市场逻辑为何转变？ Explosive Options创始人鲍勃·朗直言：“投资者迟早会对超大规模企业的无休止支出感到厌倦。”当一家公司因克制支出而获得市场奖励时，信号已经足够清晰——AI叙事正在从“谁投得多”转向“谁投得聪明”。全球AI供应链相关股票重新获得青睐。市场开始相信：能够证明AI投入正在转化为收入的公司，将获得溢价；而只靠“讲故事”烧钱、无法展示商业化进展的公司，将被重新定价。一个更值得关注的问题： Meta今年全年资本支出指引为1300-1450亿美元，已开始调整预算。如果“大额资本支出 Fundamental Research Report $PENDLE / Pendle (RWA) $3.20 Conclusion First: Pendle ($PENDLE) has an overall score of 54/100, with a rating that narrative focuses on implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented. Pendle (token $PENDLE), RWA sector. Focusing on yield tokenization VT protocols. Benchmarked against ONDO and CFG. Traditional SME receivable financing goes through bank factoring, with approval times of 30-90 days and interest rates of 12%-24%, making it slow to receive funds. On-chain asset ownership is transparent, LP pools release funds instantly, and RWA assets can be traded twice to enhance liquidity. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days. At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $5.20M, token holders buy back and burn annualized rates, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment. On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Looking together with peers (unified standard, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Pendle $3.00B, ONDO undisclosed, CFG undisclosed. For FDV, Pendle $4.20B, ONDO undisclosed, CFG undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Pendle $5.20M, ONDO undisclosed, CFG undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Pendle has not disclosed it, ONDO has not disclosed, and CFG has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market capitalization $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 577.1x, FDV divided by revenue 808.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. To wrap up: Solid fundamentals (rating 54/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Next, focus on these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, and GitHub version release. Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations exceeding 30% require reassessment. That's all for now. See you next time. #基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit The CLARITY Act has been delayed again. But the market may have missed one key point: What truly fears its delay may not be BTC, but rather altcoins and DeFi. The U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the House last year by a vote of 294 to 134, and in May this year, the Senate Banking Committee advanced it by a vote of 15 to 9. It sounds just one step away from landing. The problem is, this step is getting harder and harder now. On July 14, Senate Majority Leader Thune also expressed hope to push for a vote before the August recess. By July 23, he had changed his tune: Most likely, it won't be completed before the recess; the only hope is to at least start the process first. Now, from August 3rd to 7th, it is basically the last complete window before the recess. More directly, the market is forecasted. This year, Polymarket once raised the probability of passing the CLARITY Act in 2026 to around 80%, but now it's down to less than 40%. The market has already started from: "When will it pass?" It became: "Will we still be able to pass this year?" But there is one point many people overlook. CLARITY's delay is certainly not good news for BTC. But the real core variables for BTC are interest rates, the US dollar, and global liquidity. What truly depends on regulatory clarity is: ETH, DeFi, trading platforms, and a large number of counterfeit assets still subject to disputes over their securities attributes. Rules never fall into place, Institutions don't know which assets will safely enter their balance sheets every day. So my ranking of influences is: 🔴 DeFi / High-Beta altcoins: Obviously bearish 🟠 ETH: Bearish side 🟡 BTC: Mild bearish 🟢 Large compliant trading platforms: not necessarily losers Even companies like Coinbase may become hidden beneficiaries. Why? Because the more complex the regulation, the higher the compliance cost, making it harder for small platforms and small projects to survive. But large platforms have lawyers, licenses, cash, and regulatory experience. Unclear rules are costly for the industry; For leading companies, it could become a moat. So what we really focus on next is not the "news saying negotiations are still ongoing." Instead, there are two substantial signals: Has the Senate officially initiated the Cloture process; Can they truly form a 60-vote path across parties? If there are still no procedural actions before August 7, The market will further trade CLARITY into a "talk after September" story. This may not be fatal for BTC. But for altcoins, regulatory discounts still have to be paid. Do you think the ones hurt the most with CLARITY continuing to delay are BTC, or are they the altcoins and DeFi? $BTC $ETH #CLARITYAct #美国监管 #DeFi #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 Fundamental Research Report $ONDO / Ondo Finance (RWA) $3.20 Core judgment: Ondo Finance ($ONDO) overall score 59/100, rating: narrative over implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented. Project Overview: Ondo Finance (token $ONDO), RWA sector. Focusing on RWA bond tokenization. Benchmarked against CFG and HUMA. Traditional SME receivable financing goes through bank factoring, with approval times of 30-90 days and interest rates of 12%-24%, making it slow to receive funds. On-chain asset ownership is transparent, LP pools release funds instantly, and RWA assets can be traded twice to enhance liquidity. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days. At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment. On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Looking at it together with peers (unified standard, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Ondo Finance $3.00B, CFG undisclosed, HUMA undisclosed. For FDV, Ondo Finance $4.20B, CFG undisclosed, HUMA undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Ondo Finance $2.00M, CFG undisclosed, HUMA undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Ondo Finance has not disclosed this, CFG has not disclosed it, HUMA has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In summary: Solid fundamentals (rating 59/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Main risks: short-term massive unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break down, usage collapses). Key points to look at next: protocol fee cycles, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, and GitHub version releases. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required. That's all for the content—judge for yourself. #基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit South Korea's stock market fell its annual GDP in 38 days—has the 'deleveraging' of the Korean stock market ended? Unfortunately, it hasn't; the liquidation of leverage by Korean retail investors is likely not over yet. Moreover, the structure of US semiconductor stocks has deteriorated. Although there was a big rebound on Friday, the trend has not fully reversed. Deleveraging is not something that can be cleared out in just a few weeks. South Korea's leverage is concentrated in a few stocks, which are extremely risky. One-third of South Korean retail investors are heavily leveraged in two semiconductor stocks: SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. When deleveraging, everyone sells the same stock, creating a vicious cycle: the more you sell, the more the stock falls; the more you sell, the more you sell. Meanwhile, US long-term bond yields continued to surge, with 10-year bonds soaring to 4.71% and 30-year yields to 5.3%. This directly kills the valuation of tech stocks and will be passed on to South Korea's semiconductor sector. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale Tether disclosed quarterly net operating profit of about $1.5 billion and reserve buffers of about $4.11 billion, adding 14 tons of physical gold this quarter, with gold holdings exceeding 146 tons. Honestly, it's not just about "how much money was made"; what's even more worth watching is where the reserve structure is changing. Gold can offer risk diversification different from short-term Treasuries, but it also brings valuation fluctuations, custody, and liquidity issues. USDT's core remains redemption capability and reserve transparency, rather than having a higher proportion of individual assets. Going forward, it is worth observing whether reserve reports, short-term debt ratios, and gold allocation continue to rise. This is for mechanism observation only and does not constitute investment advice. #Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons $USDT $XAUT Crypto Analysis Report (August 2, 2026) 1. Market Overview On the first trading day of August, the crypto market faced a "black start." Bitcoin fell below the $63,000 mark, hitting a low of $62,400; Ethereum simultaneously dipped to the $1,850 level. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $362 million, with over 90,000 investors forced to liquidate their positions. As of August 2, BTC rebounded to around $63,500, while ETH recovered in the $1,830-$1,880 range. 2. Bitcoin: Under pressure and fluctuating, direction uncertain Price Performance: BTC has been steadily retreating from above $65,000 this week, breaking below the key support at $63,000, and after briefly rebounding to $65,000 on August 2, it fell back to around $63,500. Technicals: The price is about 11% below the 200-day moving average ($71,167). The daily chart has formed a large bearish head and shoulders pattern, with $61,000 serving as the last defensive line at the lower edge of the box; The price above $65,500 to $67,000 marks the short-term divide between long and short positions. Long-short contest: The futures market long-short ratio reached 1.94, with 66% of accounts holding long. The buy/sell ratio of 0.82 indicates active selling is dominant. The market is in a typical "bullish squeeze" environment. 3. Ethereum: Weak recovery, lack of catalyst ETH is currently in a bear-dominated oscillating recovery pattern, with the core range between $1,830 and $1,880. The 4-hour MACD remains below the zero line, with the price being suppressed by both the EMA20 and the Bollinger Middle Band. Strong resistance above is at $1,870-$1,900, and support below is at $1,830-$1,850. Ethereum has dropped about 62% from its all-time high of $4,953 in August 2025. The market lacks one-sided drivers and is waiting for new catalysts to emerge. 4. Macroeconomic and Policy: Headwinds Persist Federal Reserve: On August 1, it announced it would keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but three regional Fed chairs supported a 25bp rate hike, with market expectations for a rate hike in September to rise to about 82%. The 30-year Treasury yield surged more than 5%, continuously suppressing risk asset valuations. Regulation: The US CLARITY Crypto Regulatory Act failed to advance to the Senate before the summer recess, significantly cooling market expectations for the regulatory framework's implementation. On the Chinese side, eight departments jointly issued a notice to further prevent and address risks related to virtual currencies. Geopolitics: Trump makes tough remarks about Iran, and tensions in the Middle East spark risk-averse sentiment. 5. Capital Flows: ETF Divergence, Institutional Withdrawal BTC ETF: Net redemptions for several consecutive months, with a net outflow of $61.53 million this week. In July, the weekly net inflow for ETFs plummeted from a high of $197 million to $33.79 million. ETH ETF: This week saw a net inflow of $27.42 million, marking four consecutive trading days of net inflows, holding about 4.55% of the circulating ETH supply. Signs of capital rotating from BTC to ETH are beginning to appear. Institutional updates: BlackRock's IBIT historical net inflow surpassed $60.2 billion, but growth has slowed; Strategy made an impairment loss of $8.22 billion due to Bitcoin's decline; Coinbase's quarterly results showed continued weakness in retail trading demand. 6. Market Outlook Scenario: Probability BTC Range Drivers Neutral fluctuation 55%, 61,000-67,000 No major policy changes, long-bear balance Weak downside 30% 54,000-61,000 Inflation rebounds, rate hike signals, regulatory shelves Regulatory benefits 15% surpass 67,000→75,000+ CLARITY bill passed Key Observation Variables: August US Nonfarm Payroll and CPI data, final vote on the CLARITY Act, developments in the Middle East, and whether ETF capital flows are warming up. Risk warning: August was one of the weakest months in Bitcoin's history, with a high interest rate environment and regulatory uncertainty, resulting in higher short-term volatility risks. The market is currently at a crossroads of directional choice, and investors are advised to manage their risks well. --- Disclaimer: This report is for informational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset trading carries high risks; please make decisions with caution.#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元 Why did the US suddenly step in to support the yen? What I care about more is the money signals behind it. What the market saw was that the U.S. Treasury Department commissioned Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to intervene in foreign exchange rates, coordinating Japan's yen purchases—a rare coordinated action in the U.S. in many years. But what I'm more concerned about isn't **"Did the intervention succeed? ”** Instead: Why act at this moment? If only the yen depreciates, that alone is not enough to get the U.S. personally involved. What is truly worth considering is that the USD/JPY has remained high for a long time, which has begun to affect global capital flows, arbitrage trading, and financial stability. In recent years, large amounts of capital have used the low-interest yen for carry trades. If the yen continues to fluctuate rapidly, this leveraged capital may be forced to liquidate, triggering a global asset chain reaction. So, this move is more like telling the market: The U.S. is not here to decide the exchange rate, but to manage market expectations. Many traders like to study news in hopes of finding reasons behind market movements. And my trading increasingly leans toward a different approach: Prices often precede the news. Funds will be positioned in advance; news often serves only to verify the choices made by funds. If we truly see new interactions in the US dollar index, yen, US Treasury yields, and risk assets in the future, then today's intervention is likely to become an important point to watch rather than an isolated event. News is just a story; the money is the real storyteller.Negative rates pressing down and $4.3 billion shrinkage: Ethena USDe yield-bearing pancake, elegantly being strangled by US Treasuries? $4.3 billion. As of August 2, this is the latest total supply size for USDe, the once-glorious decentralized yield-generating stablecoin. At the beginning of this year, Ethena became the undisputed super money printer in the entire crypto world thanks to its double-digit annualized return. Countless people exchange their stablecoins for USDe and deposit them into the sUSDe protocol to enjoy free, high-interest matryoshka dolls. However, as the market opened with a sharp drop in recent days and leverage in the futures market was washed out, USDe's total size has shrunk from last year's peak to $4.3 billion. Why has this once highly praised holy grail of decentralized stablecoins recently experienced such a massive outflow and retreat? Because Ethena's long-short hedging basis trade arbitrage model is facing a fatal blow from negative rates. Let's do a simple calculation. Why can USDe deliver such high returns to users? Its underlying logic is delta-neutral arbitrage: buying one dollar of Ethereum spot while opening a one-dollar Ethereum futures short position in the derivatives market. In a bull market, long traders must continuously pay funding rates to shorts to maintain leverage. This high funding fee share is the source of USDe's ultra-high interest rate. However, after the market plunged on August 1 and long positions were liquidated for $230 million in a single day, the direction of the futures market shifted. When the leverage is washed clean, the bulls' vitality suffers a heavy blow, and the entire network's contract funding rates are rapidly shifting into negative rate ranges. When negative rates arrive, the bears are no longer the ones collecting the money; instead, they have to pay interest to the bulls. This means USDe's current yield-generating logic has completely stalled, and Ethena has even had to use reserve funds to pay in cash to ensure stakers' yields don't instantly turn negative. Even so, sUSDe's overall APY has been pulled down to a pitiful 4.5%. So, bearing the risk of smart contract liquidation and the risk of imbalance between Ethereum spot and short sellers, is it really worth taking the 4.5% nesting doll interest? Faced with the guaranteed 5% profit from US Treasury yields, the answer is obvious. Big money doesn't understand any faith. When retail investors watched sUSDe's yield keep dropping and saw the dense liquidation data from August 1st, smart money had already been applying for redemptions overnight. They bear extremely high smart contract default risks and earn a 4.5% nesting high interest rate, while compliant government stablecoins can earn 5% effortlessly without any physical risk, causing USDe to be elegantly strangled by U.S. Treasuries. When USDe's annualized yield was over 20% in the past few months, I impulsively swapped half of my defensive stablecoins for sUSDe and locked them in the protocol. It wasn't until yesterday that I finished the calculations and saw that my yield had fallen below the 5% U.S. Treasury red line, and the futures market was facing the risk of prolonged negative rates. I broke out in a cold sweat and didn't hesitate last night to apply for unlocking and withdrawal. When the tide of high interest rates for matryoshka dolls recedes, the survival story of naked swimming can no longer be made. In the coming weeks, watch closely for changes in the Ethereum contract funding rates across the entire network on Coinglass. If the rate is still fluctuating in negative territory in mid-August, I suggest you exit your sUSDe yield-bearing assets as soon as possible and embrace a safer, lower-risk channel. Before the doll myth rises again, defense is the only way out. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard US June PCE fell 0.1% month-on-month This is the first turning negative since 2020 Logically, this is positive news and U.S. Treasury yields should have retreated But the market's reaction was quite the opposite The 30-year US Treasury yield actually rose to as much as 5.27%. This marks a new high since 2007 The reason is simple: the bond market trades not the past, but the future US domestic demand remained strong in the second quarter In July, international oil prices surged by about 20 cents Additionally, for the first time, three Fed members supported raising interest rates The market is more concerned about inflation resurging in the coming months Instead of dwelling on what happened in the June PCE.Take a good look at my analysis below In April 2021, Bitcoin broke through 64,000. In the first half of the year, the entire market went wild, the DeFi Summer swept through, and hundreds of times returns on counterfeits became commonplace. Unexpectedly, the 5.19 incident occurred: within days, Bitcoin dropped from 64,000 to 28,000, and Ethereum dropped from 4,300 to 1,700. Everyone thought the bear market was coming, and news of the bear market started spreading in the group, with fear and anxiety spreading. After two months of volatility, Bitcoin regained momentum, rising all the way to a new high of 69,000 in November. And just as everyone started shouting about a "supercycle," in 2022, the real bear market arrived, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of 15,500. With the same sharp drop, why was the market bullish again after the 519 drop, but fell all year long in 2022? Many people say this is the four-year cycle, but that's just the surface. Cycles can change, and the chaotic rhythm of declines in the first half and rises in the second half of 2024 and 2025 has long shattered the simple four-year rule. So let's break it down from first principles In the crypto world, only three factors determine market trends: chip structure, narrative, and liquidity. What distinguishes pullbacks from deep bears is chip structure and liquidity. Comparing the bottom two sharp drops, 519 (May 2021) Chip structure: Frenzied to the peak, knockoff season, typical buying pressure dries up, fragile Liquidity: zero interest rates + balance sheet expansion, still aggressively injecting liquidity, easing 2022 Chip structure: At the end of 2021, the "super cycle + Bitcoin 100,000" was the loudest call, but buying was also exhausted and fragile Liquidity: aggressive 500 basis point rate hikes + balance sheet reduction, the most aggressive liquidity in history, tightening Did you notice? The chip structure of both times is just as fragile; the only difference is liquidity. Fragile chips mean it will definitely plunge, but liquidity determines whether the drop is a pullback or a deep bear market. Why is liquidity the turning point? Because fragile chips hit the shock and trigger a wave of forced selling pressure. If liquidity is loose, this selling pressure is absorbed by a continuous stream of new water, which then V-shapes back. If liquidity is pumping without new water to take over, and selling pressure caused by rate hikes and balance sheet reduction continues to regenerate daily, continuously suppressing buying, the drop lasts a whole year. The structure of the chip determines whether a sharp drop occurs, and liquidity determines whether it pulls back or remains a deep bear. This pattern will be repeatedly verified in 2024 and 2025. These past two years have been a rate-cutting cycle, with no real rate hikes throughout. So every time it spikes into a frenzy and chips become fragile, it crashes sharply. But because liquidity hasn't been pumped, every time it's a "pullback" rather than a "deep bear," and at most it takes a few months to take off again. This is the 519 moment in a bull market. In March 2024, Bitcoin surged to 73,000, the market went wild, and everyone shouted that the altcoin season and a major bull market were coming. However, by August, all altcoins collectively went bearish, but it didn't turn into the deep bear pattern of 2022. In September, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, the main rally resumed, and the market surged above 100,000. From January to April 2025, the same scenario follows: surge, frenzy, tariff crash to 74,000, then interest rate cuts resume and climb back to 126,000. Both times were fragile chips + liquidity without pumping = pullback, not a deep bear. Now let's look at the round after hitting 126,000 yuan in October 2025 Chip structure: breaking through 126,000, the loudest call for the "super cycle," but the chips are fragile Liquidity: During the rate-cut cycle, balance sheet reduction has stopped, no rate hikes or reductions According to this pattern, it feels more like a pullback, that is, the 5.19 moment, rather than the deep bear market of 2022, because the most crucial deep bear trigger—aggressive rate hikes and balance sheet reduction—doesn't exist this time A signal overlooked by many, more important than any candlestick: BTC reserves on exchanges have hit a historic low. The latest monitoring shows that BTC reserves on centralized exchanges (CEX) have dropped to about 2.2 million, a historic low. Meanwhile, Binance's latest Proof of Reserves (PoR) shows users holding about 6.4 million BTC, with a slight increase. Putting these two numbers together, the logic is clear: everyone is withdrawing coins from exchanges and moving them to their own cold wallets. There are fewer and fewer coins on exchanges that can be dumped at any time. Historically, every record low in reserves often signals a prelude to supply tightening—when there aren't enough coins available for sale, a small amount of buying can push prices up. But to be honest, this signal is not a cure-all. The drop in reserves may also be due to DeFi, staking, and custody products draining liquidity, which does not necessarily mean "long-term holding." The direction is bullish, but don't treat it as a countdown to a surge. Do you think the fewer exchange coins there are, the more bullish it is, or is there more to the story? A. Tight supply is good news / B. It's just moving, not hoarding / C. I don't understand #BTC #交易所储备 #供应紧缩 #PoR $BTC Oh no, $BTC Currently, global geopolitical tensions have eased in stages, $ETH broad market demand for safe-haven assets is gradually fading, $BEAT massive international hot money once hoarded in U.S. Treasuries and gold is now seeking new value-added outlets, continuously flowing into the US tech sector, which has the highest profitability certainty. Continued capital inflows helped the Nasdaq hold above 25,373 points, while Nvidia, storage, and cloud computing sectors took turns receiving attention from investors. Even with relatively high short-term interest rates, equity assets still offer better profitability than fixed income products. Bitcoin lacks profit backing and is completely unable to handle cross-border flows, only maintaining a narrow weaving range. The overall direction of global capital allocation has been set, and hot money inflows will continue to support the bullish trend in US stocks. Short-term pullbacks will not change the overall upward trend.Fundamental Research Report $THETA / Theta Network (DePIN) $3.20 Straight to the point: Theta Network ($THETA) overall score 50/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture is realized. Project overview: Theta Network (token $THETA), DePIN sector. Focused on decentralized video distribution. Competitors include LPT, RNDR. Traditional computing power rental giants like AWS and CoreWeave charge by GPU hours, with A100 monthly rent at $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding, suppliers don’t need centralized approval, idle GPUs become available supply. Customer price $50-$500/month, payment in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days. User metrics: address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment. Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): circulating market cap: Theta Network $3.00B, LPT undisclosed, RNDR undisclosed. FDV: Theta Network $4.20B, LPT undisclosed, RNDR undisclosed. Annual revenue: Theta Network $2.00M, LPT undisclosed, RNDR undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Theta Network undisclosed, LPT undisclosed, RNDR undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV to revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Summary: fundamentals solid (score 50/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next metrics to watch: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information from public sources, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment. Logic provided, decision is yours. #FundamentalResearch #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit Everyone is waiting for "when BTC will finally be up," but Wall Street has already quietly taken action. The data is tough: on July 30, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $233 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT alone consumed 183 million, accounting for 79% of the entire day. What does this mean? This isn't a "diamond hand" on Twitter shouting orders; it's institutions investing real money to build positions. Behind products like IBIT are pensions, endowments, and high-net-worth accounts—they don't panic over a single needle or thread. What's even more interesting is the timing: from late June to early July, ETFs were still seeing net outflows, and IBIT suffered losses for several consecutive weeks. Then in late July, it suddenly reversed course, with net inflows for two consecutive days, and on July 30, it saw a direct surge in volume. My own interpretation: institutions treat chips around 60,000 yuan as a "discount zone." Retail investors are afraid, they are sweeping. Are you still waiting for a lower price, or have you already started batch changes following the agency's lead? Share your position opening price in the comments. #BTC #现货ETF #IBIT #机构建仓 🚨 What is the biggest trap in the market right now? Many people think all altcoins will soar together, but the market tells a completely different story. This is not a widespread price hike season for knockoffs, but rather a liquidity rotation involving real money. Smart money isn't foolish enough to buy everything; they focus their bullets on a handful of carefully selected stocks, while the rest of the coins are gradually losing momentum and being left behind by the market. 🟢 Capital is pouring in: JTO, JELLYJELLY, BTC, OPG, BTCSLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP 🔴 Funds are flowing out: BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, RAVE, SPACE, SOPH, IP, AVNT, ZAMA, OFC, PIEVERSE, VIRTUAL, ACU, H, MEGA 👀 My current watchlist includes: MEME, EDEN, HUMA, ZKP, METIS 📊 The big picture remains clear: 👑 BTC remains the king of liquidity, anchoring the entire market. 🏛️ ETH continues to attract institutional funds, gradually securing its position as the "digital asset orthodox." ⚡ SOL is the most typical high-beta battleground for Layer1s, where traders chase speed and emotions follow the rhythm. 🤖 TAO and WLD have taken up the banner of the AI race, making it one of the toughest industry narratives today. 📈 HYPE acts as a thermometer for assessing market risk appetite; its price movement directly reflects whether funds dare to take risks. 🐕 DOGE and ZEC are like mirrors of retail investor sentiment, with group FOMO or panic leaving their marks first. 🎯 Truly good opportunities often go unusually quiet. When the entire internet is discussing a certain token, the biggest rally usually has already passed. Follow the flow and follow the trend, and don't enter when others have exited. Maintain discipline, closely monitor capital flows, don't chase highs, don't be greedy. 🧠The latest news: this week's tech giants' earnings season has practically crushed the market's faith in AI over and over again. Some rejoice while others grieve—the divide is clear, and the core question is: if you can burn money, where is the return? Meta has become a negative example. Because the quarterly revenue guidance was not met, free cash flow fell to its lowest level in years, and after-hours it was hit hard by 8%. The market saw right through it—this is another classic example of spending money on AI and burning holes in its own assets. Microsoft and Amazon were grinning from ear to ear. Microsoft's stock price soared nearly 16%, with its market value surging by $450 billion in a single day, setting a new historical record. This is based on two strategies: cloud business growth hitting a four-year high, plus a personal commitment to control new capital expenditures this year. Amazon also benefited, with cloud business revenue growth also hitting a four-year record, and its stock price surging 15%, finally easing concerns about its aggressive cash burn. Explosive Options analysts hit the nail on the head: investors aren't fools; no one wants to watch a bottomless pit keep filling indefinitely. Now, whoever can restrain spending and deliver real cloud business growth will be the new favorite. The capital market's trend is shifting from blindly supporting AI infrastructure to carefully scrutinizing who can profit first. $AMZN $MSFT $META #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard #美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元 Recently, the phrase "Buy yen" in the U.S. Treasury Secretary's notebook was exposed, and the U.S. and Japan jointly managed to pull the yen, which had nearly fallen to a 40-year low, forcefully back. Many people think this is a great power game and has nothing to do with ordinary people, but in fact, this maneuver has quietly affected our wallets long ago. To get straight to the point: the cost-effectiveness of traveling to Japan and shopping overseas has changed. Previously, when the yen fell sharply, a 20,000 yuan package in China could save three to four thousand yuan in Japan. Now, after intervention, the yen has risen more than 4% in two days, narrowing the price gap to under 1,000. But don't rush to chase high prices and exchange currency. The US-Japan 2.5% interest rate spread remains unchanged, and the yen is very likely to continue fluctuating. It's more cost-effective to wait until the exchange rate returns above 160 before switching in batches. The deeper impact is financial stability. The essence of this US intervention is "self-rescue": Japan is the largest overseas creditor of the U.S., and if the yen falls too hard, Japan will have to sell U.S. bonds to exchange for dollars to support the market, directly driving up the cost of borrowing money for the U.S. The US intervenes with small spending, so Japan refrains from dumping US debt, avoiding a crash in its own bond market. For us, if intervention fails and triggers a sell-off of US Treasuries, the net value of US dollar wealth management products and US Treasury funds may shrink, and domestic mortgage and car loan rates could also rise accordingly. For investors, be cautious of volatility in the short term. A sharp rise in the yen triggers global carry trade unwinding, funds withdrawing from the stock and crypto sectors to repay yen debt, putting short-term pressure on overvalued Bitcoin and A-share sectors. But this is not a trend reversal, just a short-term liquidity tightening. In the long run, a weaker US dollar remains positive for risk assets, but the pain of closing positions will pass. Ordinary investors should not be swayed by short-term fluctuations; prudent wealth management and diversified allocation are the right approach. The foreign exchange market numbers have never been isolated; they connect with Japanese housewives' grocery expenses, the U.S. government's borrowing costs, and each of our wallets. This intervention is a game of "short-term rescue, long-term delay," treating the symptoms but not the root cause. Understanding the underlying logic is more important than blindly following trends. $BEAT funds are flowing in: $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP, $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS 📊 Key watchlist reference: BTC sets the direction, ETH monitors institutional moves, SOL observes the L1 track, DATA corresponds to AI infrastructure, WLD watches the AI identity track, HYPE gauges risk appetite, DOGE and ZEC track retail sentiment. 🔴 Clear laggards list: $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA This is not a season of broad altcoin rallies; this is a liquidity battle.Fundamental Research Report $LPT / Livepeer (DePIN) $3.20 Core Judgment: Livepeer ($LPT) overall score 54/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows paid usage traces, and token value capture has been realized. Project overview: Livepeer (token $LPT), DePIN sector. Focused on decentralized video transcoding. Competitors include RNDR, AR. Traditional compute power rental giants like AWS and CoreWeave charge by GPU hour, with A100 monthly rent at $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high barrier. On-chain solutions fragment compute power for bidding, suppliers require no centralized approval, idle GPUs become available supply. Customer price ranges $50-$500/month, payment in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, paid usage traces exist. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days. User metrics: address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (allocated to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem grants are B-level, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, tech integration checked via API/SDK evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment. Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating +), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Livepeer $3.00B, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. FDV: Livepeer $4.20B, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Annual revenue: Livepeer $2.00M, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Livepeer undisclosed, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients joining, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Summary: fundamentals solid (score 54/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key future metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. Core financial indicators deviating over 30% require reassessment. Fundamentals covered here, the rest is up to the market. #FundamentalResearch #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit Did Trump wake up and suddenly hit pause in the Middle East's fire? 🌙 This isn't a drill—is this another chance to get on board? Honestly, the current market rhythm is a typical "news shakeout" phase. It is not a period of chasing broad gains or a panic period of one-sided declines, but rather a highly volatile game arena dominated by sudden events. Last night, Trump announced the cancellation of military strikes against Iran, causing oil and gold to plunge instantly, while US stocks and cryptocurrencies rebounded in response, and risk aversion quickly deflated like a popped balloon. But there is a key point here that many may have overlooked: Iran publicly denied the U.S. claims. Both sides are stuck to their own paths, with the agreement framework only "preliminary agreement" and no official signing yet to be signed. What does this indicate? Market trading has never been peaceful, but rather the expectation of "no short-term war." From the perspective of capital preferences, risk appetite is rapidly recovering, but the path of recovery is delicate. Funds did not blindly flood into all risk assets, but instead chose the most certain targets. BTC and ETH, as liquidity hubs, were the first to absorb the spillover of safe-haven funds, while SOL and some AI narrative tokens like TAO and WLD took on aggressive positions. - Bullish Path: Geopolitical risk premiums are compressing, and risk assets are entering a breathing room. If subsequent agreements are signed smoothly, a drop in oil prices will further suppress inflation expectations, opening up room for Fed rate cuts, which is a tailwind for crypto. The short-term rebound is expected to continue, especially for high-quality coins that were previously oversold. - Bearish risk: This is just "verbal easing," not an endgame.Everyone is heading down the same path Bitcoin, down 54% in 268 days Silver, down 54% in 169 days SanDisk SNDK, down 55% in 36 days SK Hynix, down 53% in 34 days Brothers in the crypto world, go back to your original families—at least you'll lose more slowly 😅Trump taco, and on-chain prices responded quickly Crude oil fell, while semiconductors rose The transmission chain here looks roughly like this: If the war escalates, or if Trump suddenly makes tough statements (such as ending the ceasefire, wanting to fight again, or imposing a blockade), the market's first reaction is that oil supply cuts may be imminent (the reality is more complicated), and crude oil prices will immediately surge upward. As soon as oil prices rise, people start worrying that inflation will rise again. When inflation expectations rise, buyers of U.S. Treasuries demand higher interest compensation, causing Treasury yields (especially 10- or 30-year long-term bonds) to rise. As soon as U.S. Treasury yields rise, the market begins to speculate that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates, or at least cut rates are far off. As rate hike expectations heat up, the stock market suffers because money becomes more expensive, pushing stock valuations downward. At this point, Trump took a taco. The market immediately breathed a sigh of relief: oil prices retreated, inflation concerns eased, US Treasury yields fell, rate hike expectations cooled, and the stock market rebounded again. The complete chain is: Iran is tense→ oil prices rise → inflation expectations → US Treasury yields climb → rate hike expectations → putting pressure on the stock market Trump, TACO, →, oil prices retreated→ inflation concerns eased→ yields fell→ rate hike expectations cooled, → stocks rebounded For semiconductors: Semiconductors themselves have little to do with oil prices, but are heavily affected by interest rates. Once yields rise, high-valuation stocks will face price cuts, oil prices will be dragged down, capital spending may slow, and this will be unfavorable for equipment manufacturers and storage. Conversely, once TACO is implemented and both oil prices and yields fall, semiconductors are often among the strongest rebounds because of their strong elasticity. For South Korea: South Korea is the biggest loser. First, as an energy importer, rising oil prices directly increase costs. Second, chip giants like Samsung and SK Hynix have stock prices highly driven by global risk appetite and US Treasury yields. High yields and a strong dollar make it easier for funds to flow out of South Korea. Third, the chip weight in the Korean stock market is too high; when the US semiconductor market fluctuated, KOSPI experienced dramatic fluctuations. So when Iran gets nervous, the Korean market often gets hit first; With Trump and TACO, South Korea is more likely to rebound flexibly. $SKHYNIX Circle's financial report can first be broken down into a very simple multiplication problem: USDC circulating size × reserve asset yield. Circle will release its earnings report before the market opens on August 5. Previously, the crypto industry had delivered three very different results: Coinbase's revenue fell about 18.5% year-on-year, Robinhood's crypto business revenue dropped nearly 40%, and Tether's net operating profit reached $1.5 billion. Circle became the final sample of this round. Three sets of figures in the financial report are worth reviewing: USDC circulating supply, reserve revenue, and costs paid to distribution channels. USDC growth while reserve revenue weakens indicates that scale expansion is offsetting the pressure from falling interest rates; Revenue growth but faster rise in distribution costs means a larger portion of stablecoin-generated revenue is taken by partner channels. Only when scale, revenue, and profit improve simultaneously can the operating leverage of this business model be realized. Expanding stablecoin scale does not automatically turn into a buy for $BTC or $ETH; it means there is more dollar liquidity on-chain that can be mobilized at any time. As of 18:18, BTC was about $63,247, up 0.29% in 24 hours; ETH was about $1,870, up 0.23%. The market is waiting for new funding signals. The USDC data released by Circle perfectly answers whether the on-chain dollar is accumulating or continuing to expand. After the financial report is released, three lines can be stacked to observe: USDC supply, Circle reserve revenue, and Ethereum on-chain settlement activity. If all three grow simultaneously, the stablecoin story will move from "market cap growth" to "cash flow validated." #财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale $CHZ Rebounds as Buyers Regain Momentum 🚀 $CHZ is trading around $0.01293 on the 1H OKX chart, up 2.45% over the past 24 hours. After finding support near $0.01255, buyers stepped in and pushed the price back toward the $0.01302 daily high, signaling renewed strength following the recent sell-off. The current structure has improved, with higher lows and steady buying pressure suggesting bulls are gradually regaining control. As long as price holds above the recent recovery zone, another attempt to challenge today's high remains possible. However, rejection near resistance could lead to a short period of consolidation before the next move. For now, momentum continues to favor the upside, and a confirmed break above $0.01302 would strengthen the bullish outlook. Do you think $CHZ can reclaim today's high and extend its recovery, or will sellers defend the current resistance? 🌈 #EarningsWeekAhead Not every bubble burst becomes a market crash. The real question is where the money goes next. 📊 The recent correction in storage chip stocks has been sharp, but it hasn't triggered a systemic shock. Despite heavy selling across the storage sector, the S&P 500 is still only about 1.6% below its all-time high, showing that the broader market remains surprisingly resilient. The storage sector has taken a significant hit, with Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung all pulling back sharply, while the Korean stock market has experienced heightened volatility. So why hasn't the broader market cracked? Here's what stands out: 1️⃣ This is a structural reset—not an economic crisis. Capital is leaving an overcrowded and overvalued corner of the AI hardware trade, but it's not abandoning risk assets altogether. 2️⃣ Money is rotating, not disappearing. Funds exiting storage hardware are flowing into cloud companies, cash-flow-rich tech leaders, and defensive sectors, helping support the broader market. 3️⃣ The financial system isn't heavily exposed. Banks don't have excessive leverage tied to the storage industry, so there's no widespread credit stress or obvious trigger for a systemic sell-off. Two important signals the market is sending: ① AI is entering a new phase of differentiation. Investors are becoming far more selective. Instead of buying every AI-related stock, the focus is shifting toward companies that can actually convert the AI narrative into profits. Businesses relying more on future promises than current earnings are likely to remain under valuation pressure. ② A localized bubble bursting doesn't mean the bull market is over. But it does suggest the era of everything moving higher together is fading. From here, market leadership is likely to become increasingly selective, with the gap between winners and losers continuing to widen. My view: The resilience of the broader market shouldn't lead to complacency. So far, the damage has largely been contained within the storage supply #DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK Whales are quietly hoarding, and exchange inflows are declining On one hand, Strategy has made a slight reduction; on the other, on-chain data tells a different story. Multiple on-chain monitoring shows that whales have been continuously accumulating shares since July. Data shows that whales bought about $23 billion worth of BTC in the past 30 days, marking the largest single-month accumulation in 13 years; Another statistic states that in the past two weeks, major players have accumulated about 270,000 BTC (approximately $16.7 billion). At the same time, negative exchange net flow continues—coins moving from exchanges to cold wallets, indicating retail investors are selling and institutions are collecting. These two signals should be viewed together: short-term selling pressure from strategy reductions, but medium- to long-term chips are concentrating on strong players. Historically, this "weak hand against strong hand" structure is often characterized by bottom ranges. But I have to pour cold water: on-chain data comes from different sources. The sources for 23 billion and 270,000 coins are different and can't be simply added. The conclusion can only be said to be "biased toward accumulation," and cannot be exaggerated as precise numbers. Are you stockpiling now or waiting for a lower price? A keeps buying as prices fall, B is below 60,000 yuan, C is already out on the sidelines #BTC #鲸鱼积累 #交易所净流出 #链上数据 Strategy is really selling BTC, but not "clearing out and running away" Some say Saylor is going to sell. I checked the real data and concluded: they are indeed selling, but the scale is limited, not a clearance. WSJ July 6 report: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) posted a Q2 digital asset loss of $8.32 billion. The reason for the loss was that it sold 1,363 BTC (average price 59,256) on June 29-30, and another 2,225 BTC (average price 60,773) on July 1-5, totaling 3,588 BTC, all below cost. Its current holding price is $75,476, and it currently holds 843775 BTC. But don't panic and shout "Saylor ran away." Key facts: It sold 3,588 tokens, accounting for less than 0.5% of the total supply The company clearly stated that this is to "optimize balance sheet/liquidity," not bearish Its debt is non-recourse, so it won't be forced into liquidation just because BTC drops My own judgment: this is a strategic reduction in positions, not a collapse of faith. What really matters to watch are the maturity pressure on its convertible bonds and the dividends on preferred shares—these are the key factors for whether it will continue to sell in the future. Are you afraid that Strategy's selling pressure will push BTC down? Share your position in the comments and see whether everyone is holding on or running right now. #Strategy #Saylor #BTC持仓 #减仓 #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 I think inflation data keeps swinging, making it difficult for the Fed to smoothly start a series of rate cuts #SPCX首份财报将公布, $100 billion unlocked: US inflation data fluctuates between high and low, and the pace of decline is very slow, making it difficult for the Fed to smoothly shift its monetary policy. The probability of consecutive rate cuts within the year is extremely low, and the high interest rate environment will last much longer than the market previously expected. #财报观察员: Next Thursday's raffle will be held, with Circle's 10-year Treasury yield holding steady at 4.74%. The probability of a rate hike in September remains 85%, continuing to weigh on global risk assets. The Nasdaq's rise can only rely on corporate earnings to withstand valuation pressure, and the pace of the upward move will slow significantly. Bitcoin is oscillating within a box at $62,908; if tightening is not lifted, the crypto sector will not break out of the bull trend. Rate cut fantasies need to be gradually dispelled. Going forward, the market will mainly be volatile and fluctuating. Control the rhythm of the swing and avoid betting on a major easing rally.$BTC This round of semiconductor sector rally is highly fragmented. $ETH SME design and manufacturing companies are affected by downstream demand fluctuations, $BEAT revenue fluctuates. Only leading companies with computing power orders and top-tier technology barriers can sustain stable profits through cycles. NVIDIA firmly holds the vast majority of the AI chip market share, with revenue surging month by month, while second-tier semiconductor companies see very little order increment. The Nasdaq rose at 25,373 points thanks to leading weights, while miscellaneous stocks continued to weaken. US Treasury Treasuries tighten liquidity at high levels, and market funds will only cluster together quality assets based on the best ones. Micron, a cyclical leader in the storage sector, also has profit resilience. Niche semiconductor stocks can be abandoned by capital at any time, so focusing on leading stocks is the key to avoiding losses caused by market divergence. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 Today is Sunday, the market is as thin as a late-night diner, with hardly any customers. Bitcoin closed around 62,800, down more than 3 points in a day. Ethereum returned to around 1,866, and the total market cap shrank to 2180 billion. The mainstream collectively turned about 3% in the red. The situation isn't bad, just a bit lacking energy. The reasons for the drop aren't complicated. Money is like falling in love—whoever offers more certainty tends to fall into your arms. The S&P has rebounded these past two days, and funds have quietly shifted to US stocks. Plus, Strategy is still hyping and continuing to sell coins. Another stable buyer is gone. The weekend is thin The slightest disturbance causes a few shakes. But what really weighs everyone's mood is that old friend who comes around this time every year. The August curse. Looking over the past fifteen years, the average BTC return in August was -0.64, with a median of -7.87, making it the only month with a negative median all year. Simply put, it's a seasonal 'emo' kid. As soon as summer breaks come, you want to lie flat. Don't expect underperforming students to submit a perfect score on the first day of school. But that doesn't mean they're hopeless. You have to look at where they have tutoring. The resistance above 65,000 to 70,000 is a must-reclaim resistance line. It can be reclaimed This downtrend is the end of the page. If it can't be recovered, the 60,000 mark will likely need to be stepped down and confirmed again. What to watch tomorrow. Next week's US nonfarm payroll is a major test. The market expects an increase of 91,000. Once the data increases, volatility increases. The US dollar index is still flat around 999. Before the data comes out, this calm usually means deep breaths, not that it's okay. In trading, it's just one thing: don't go head-to-head with a month currently in emo. Light positions wait for stabilization signals before going up Nvidia's performance in computing power has led the entire U.S. tech scene by a wide margin, and its stock price has already fully exhausted its performance expectations for the coming years. However, Amazon's current valuation remains reasonably low, with steady growth in cloud and e-commerce revenues, and the room for further gains will far exceed that of Nvidia. On August 2, the Nasdaq closed higher overall, with Amazon's gains clearly lagging behind the hash power leaders, indicating a strong need for valuation recovery. The election cycle and interest rate cut expectations will both boost the consumer + cloud services sector, while the 4.74% US Treasury yield pressure will only cause short-term volatility. Bitcoin continues to move sideways, and funds will gradually flow into individual stocks in the value trough. As the hash power hype gradually fades, funds will shift to undervalued blue chips. Amazon's potential for long-term growth is worth holding for realization.The U.S. election cycle will continue to benefit the overall U.S. stock market. The ruling party will introduce various policies to stabilize the economy and boost the capital market, avoiding major market volatility before the election. Boosted by this, the Nasdaq and the tech sector will likely rise more easily than fall over the next three months, making a deep correction unlikely. Currently, 25,373 points provide policy support, with Nvidia and Microsoft steadily raising the index. Even if US Treasury yields remain high at 4.74%, policy hedging will lessen the negative impact of tightening. Bitcoin is constrained by both regulation and liquidity constraints, so it will continue to maintain a box-weaving pattern. The election dividend window is extremely valuable. Every small pullback during this period is an excellent opportunity to build up position returns. Just rely on cyclical dividends to steadily accumulate returns.Recently, visiting major trading communities revealed that the vast majority of retail traders are unanimously bullish on the Nasdaq, generally believing the index will only reach new highs without a sharp drop, and the market view is highly unified. Years of trading experience have told me that a consistently bullish trend across the entire network is often not far from the stage top. The Nasdaq accumulated massive short-term profit-taking positions at the 25,373 point level, with retail investors collectively entering to buy shares, allowing institutions to seize the opportunity to distribute chips in batches. 4.74% US Treasury yields show no signs of decline, and valuations lack conditions for sustained expansion. Bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index scores 33, plunging into panic, with funds hiding uncertainty in their willingness to hedge safe. Extreme optimism is the biggest hidden risk in the market, and a sharp pullback could occur at any time. Do not blindly add positions to long positions following public sentiment.One headline can spark a rally. The next can erase it just as fast. That's the market we're trading right now. ⚠️ President Trump ($TRUMP) said the U.S. would cancel a planned attack on Iran if a deal is reached quickly. The reported framework includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, progress on Iran's nuclear program, and a broader regional arrangement involving Israel. For financial markets, this is a short-term de-escalation signal. If negotiations move forward, oil could lose part of its geopolitical premium, while risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies could benefit from a relief rally as investors rotate out of defensive positions. But nothing has been finalized. The proposal is still conditional on both sides reaching an agreement, meaning geopolitical risk hasn't disappeared. Any setback in negotiations, rejection from Iran, or renewed threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could quickly send oil prices higher and put fresh pressure on stocks and crypto. The market is now watching three key developments: • Official confirmation from Iran. • Clear terms and a timeline for any agreement. • Evidence that commercial shipping can safely resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, expect markets to stay driven by headlines. If progress is confirmed, stocks and crypto could extend higher while oil and gold may ease. If negotiations break down, don't be surprised to see a sharp reversal. Right now, patience is likely to be more valuable than chasing the first move. $TRUMP $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK The overnight 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded slightly to above 4.74%, and the US dollar index strengthened in tandem. In my view, a further rise in risk-free rates would directly interrupt the Nasdaq's current upward momentum, bringing the short-term upward trend to an end and a fluctuating correction to follow. High-valuation tech stocks are highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations; every round of yield increases compresses the valuation space for growth stocks, with an 85% chance of a rate hike in September being repriced by funds. The Nasdaq 25373 is under severe pressure at high levels and needs to pull back to digest profit-taking, with the rebound in US Treasuries becoming the trigger for the decline. Bitcoin is simultaneously under pressure and fluctuating within a narrow range, with the downward linkage between the two asset classes temporarily recovering. High-level risks continue to accumulate, so it is essential to tighten positions at this stage to avoid pullback impacts.Crowding and Crowding List This group doesn't rank by rate, but only seeks high-cost positions and their price feedback. $HOME Current rate -0.0916%, closed -0.030% in the past 24 hours, at the 29th percentile of the most recent sample. As prices fall and positions shrink, risk exposure is shrinking, so it cannot be directly labeled as new short positions. OI is shrinking, with the core of the market being position exits; Rate bias does not mean the exiting party has been confirmed. $GRVT Current rate -0.0720%, closed -0.020% in the past 24 hours, at the 35th percentile of the most recent sample. Increasing positions after a 15-minute drop indicates that new positions were added during this period of pressure. Holding costs remain in the normal range, and the combination of price and OI is more useful than the absolute value of the rate. The historical sample contains only 17 settlement points, and the percentiles are currently only auxiliary. $MMT Current rate -0.0479%, closed in the past 24 hours -0.756%, at the 11th percentile of the most recent sample. Within 15 minutes, the price fell while the OI increased, so market pressure did not release along with the decline. Short costs are relatively high but prices still cooperate, and the structure has not been broken; stopping the decline will be the first warning.

Orbit Topic Sitemap