Orbit Post Sitemap
This week's data makes the cards clear.
CPI year-on-year was 3.5% → 3.4%, core CPI was 2.6% → 2.5%; PPI year-on-year was 5.5% → 4.7%, core PPI was 4.7% → 4.2%; Initial jobless claims climbed to 209,000. Inflation cooling and job easing are both confirming that the urgency for a rate hike in September is fading.
But the Fed folks are still arguing.
Hamack insists rates must be raised, saying rates are "not tight enough"; Barkin retorts, "This level is already sufficient." Both hawks and doves have their own opinions, neither willing to yield.
Traders are too lazy to wait. Short-term interest rate contracts are no longer fully priced in this year's rate hikes, US Treasury yields have all fallen, and the S&P 500 has broken through the historic 7,800-point wall. The market votes with its feet, not waiting for the argument to end.
Oil prices are also helping the market. WTI fell more than 2% to $81, while Brent slipped toward $87. The stalemate in Hormuz remains, but the geopolitical premium is clearly fading, and the anchor of inflation expectations is sinking downward.
SanDisk surged nearly 14 points on Thursday, with the storage sector collectively rising. The S&P 500 broke below 7,800 for the first time, gold traded sideways at 4,380, while Bitcoin remained hovering above 63,800.
The same macro answer sheet yields completely different scores. US stocks are cutting rates early; gold lying sideways means safe-haven bottoms haven't moved, Bitcoin lying low means it's still waiting for its own rhythm—macro is just a backdrop, not a trigger button.
The direction has already shifted toward rate cuts, and the path is clear. But how different assets move depends on their respective fundamental scripts. #通胀降温遇上加## SanDisk Market Analysis
SanDisk's stock price surged again, surging over 13% in a single day and becoming a focal point in the US tech sector.
## The core reason behind the sudden surge
1. Investor Day announces financial targets that exceed expectations
At Investor Day, the company released a long-term financial model far exceeding Wall Street forecasts, expecting revenue compound annual growth of mid-to-high double digits for fiscal years 2028 to 2030, and setting an adjusted gross margin target at nearly 80%, greatly boosting capital market confidence.
2. AI inference and explosive demand in data centers
Globally, the demand for high-density, low-power enterprise-grade SSDs (such as 128TB large-capacity SSDs) for training and inference of large AI models is experiencing explosive growth. SanDisk has successfully entered the core storage chain of data centers by relying on advanced 3D NAND technology.
3. Global NAND flash supply shortage and price hikes
The AI hardware boom has triggered a severe global shortage of memory chips, causing NAND flash memory contract prices to surge. The simultaneous increase in product volume and price has driven explosive and strong performance growth.
4. Business model innovation breaks the logic of cycles
The company plans to lock in high gross margins through long-term commercial agreements, attempting to escape the "cyclical attributes" of the traditional storage industry's volatile fluctuations and gain revaluation and premium from Wall Street funds.
## Summary and Outlook
Currently, SanDisk is driven by the AI storage supercycle and better-than-expected performance guidance, with strong fundamental momentum. However, considering the large short-term gains and the likelihood of high-level fluctuations and shakeouts later, it is recommended not to blindly chase gains at high levels; wait until the market is digested and pull back before seeking positioning opportunities.
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus $SNDK AI infrastructure performance is emerging as a new link influencing cryptocurrency supply and demand. Unless the expansion of AI capital spending ends, can the risk-on support for BTC and ETH be maintained? AMD's Q2 2026 revenue reached $11.54 billion, growing about 50% year-over-year, while its data center segment increased 107% to $6.7 billion. NVIDIA reaffirmed the strength of AI demand by reporting data center revenue of approximately $194 billion in FY2026. In memory, SK hynix achieved record results driven by demand for HBM, advanced DRAM, and NAND and began shipping HBM4. SanDisk's quarterly revenue surged to $8.97 billion, driven by AI storage demand, compared to $1.9 billion in the same period last year. Including TSMC, the AI investment cycle is spreading beyond GPUs to memory, storage, networking, data centers, and power infrastructure. The key question is what kind of price structure changes this trend will create in the virtual asset market. The strong performance of AI infrastructure is being passed on to crypto through two channels. First,On-chain data shows that about 4.77 million $BTC bought in 2025 are currently left, down 41.5% from last December's peak. All these tokens are in a loss-making state, and the reduced portion is basically a cash cut to trade. Before February, the sell-off was extremely fierce, and then the curve clearly slowed—the most panicked group has already exited. At the same time, the selling curve for chips bought in 2022–2024 that still have unrealized profits is nearly flattened, indicating that long-term holders are not concerned about current volatility.
Historical comparison: At the end of 2018, the high-level chips in 2017 dropped by about 62%; At the end of 2022, the high-level chips in 2021 dropped by about 51%. Currently, this round is only 41.5%. If mechanical analysis is based on history, selling pressure seems not to have been fully cleared.
But there is a key variable this round—institutions. ETFs and MicroStrategy institutions hold over 2.4 million BTC, and the willingness to lock up these tokens is much higher than retail investors, resulting in extremely low turnover rates. There was no ETF outflow throughout August, and institutions are still accumulating. This means that in this bear market, it may not be necessary to reduce high-level holdings by 60% to bottom.
In addition, the seller's exhaustion index has entered an extreme range, with the average daily expenditure of long-term holders dropping to a two-year low, and the "big distribution" of old OGs has basically ended.
Overall, panic buying has basically been released, and selling pressure is waning. However, the reduction in on-chain shares is still far from historical bear bottoms, and short-term fluctuations may continue. The difference is that institutional funds are changing the supply-demand structure, and this bottom may be closer and milder than expected.这一周释放出来的数据，信号已经足够清晰。
CPI同比自3.5%回落至3.4%，核心CPI由2.6%降到2.5%；
PPI同比5.5%下行至4.7%，核心PPI从4.7%回落至4.2%；
初请失业金上行至20.9万。
三重信号叠加：通胀稳步回落，就业边际走弱，9月加息的紧迫性大幅下降。
但是美联储内部意见依旧严重分化。
哈马克坚持表态还要加息，核心理由：当前政策利率并不具备足够限制性。
巴尔金则认为，不少官员已经认可当下利率水平足够紧缩。
一边主张继续加息，一边主张按兵不动，观点完全对立。
市场交易员根本没有耐心陪着官员辩论。短期利率合约已经不再完全定价今年加息，美债收益率全线下行，标普500直接创出历史新高。资金不等美联储表态，先走一步。
油价同样给出配合，WTI大跌超2%，落到81美元附近，布伦特下探至87美元。霍尔木兹的僵局依旧悬而未决，但是地缘带来的风险溢价正在快速消退。
油价一旦松动，通胀预期最重要的锚，也就跟着往下走。
SNDK闪迪周四单日大涨接近14%，直接把整个存储板块全部带飞。
标普500站上7800，美股不断刷新高点；黄金在4380高位横盘震荡；BTC比特币依旧趴在63800一带。
同样是通胀降温的宏观叙事，三类资产走出了完全不一样的行情节奏。
美股正在提前交易远期降息预期；黄金高位横盘，代表避险资金并没有离场；比特币原地趴着，说明它暂时还没有切换到宏观定价主线上面。
一模一样的宏观大环境，不同资产，走出完全独立的行情。
大方向市场已经在往降息这条线上博弈，大趋势已经十分明朗。只是每一类资产，节奏要看自身基本面与资金轮动。
$BTC $SNDK $XAU
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
交易员狗总After SanDisk's 13.7% surge: Has the logic changed, or is it just sentiment?
Last night, SanDisk ($SNDK) broke through the previous platform with a strong 13.7% gain, closing at $1,528.11 and briefly touching $1,612 before the market opened. The core catalyst behind this rally comes from the long-term goals released by the company's investors during the day—the market is repricing NAND, a sector once considered highly cyclical.
The company's financial guidance far exceeded market expectations. It is expected that FY2028–2030 revenue will maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, with an adjusted gross margin target of about 80% and a free cash flow margin of about 50%. These three figures together almost shatter the market's fixed perception that NAND is "dependent on the weather." More importantly, SanDisk revealed it has signed multi-year agreements with eight customers, with weighted average terms of about four years, attempting to use contract-locking volumes and prices to transform the previously surging and plummeting storage business into a "stable rental income" business model.
Meanwhile, the continued push of AI data centers for storage provides fundamental support for this round of market trends. Driven by investor days, funds have re-traded the logic of "tight AI storage + NAND supply."
But after the big rise, the core question becomes: Can this big bullish candlestick be effectively supported?
From a technical perspective, the resistance range above is between $1,600 and $1,620. If the market can stabilize above this area after the open, short-term strength is likely to continue, with the next target possibly at $1,650 or even $1,700. The first support below is near yesterday's high of $1,580, and the second support is the closing price area between $1,525 and $1,530.
Trading strategies should be approached in two scenarios: if the stock price holds above $1,580–$1,600, it indicates funds are willing to buy at high levels and a strong structure is established. Conversely, if the market opens high and then quickly falls below $1,580, or even falls below $1,528, be wary of this rally triggered by news and a pullback.
The positive news itself is real, but SanDisk's current volatility is extremely high, with RSI rising to around 73, so the risk-reward ratio for short-term chasing gains is not favorable. A more rational attitude toward this round of the market might be: acknowledge the logic improvement but not chase the rally, waiting for a pullback confirmation or a right-side signal after breaking through resistance.
The direction is clear, but rhythm is more important than direction. #闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus From three dimensions: **macro fundamentals**, **market trends**, and **capital liquidity**, the current data is comprehensively analyzed:
### 1. Macro inflation data (Fundamentals: moderate support)
* **CPI Data**: July's annual CPI rate fell to **3.4%** (previous 3.5%), and core CPI year-on-year dropped to **2.5%**, indicating that US inflationary pressures are easing as expected.
****PPI Data**: July PPI rose month-on-month by **0.0%** (unchanged), with energy prices dropping significantly, further confirming reduced upstream production costs.
**Data Analysis**: The cooling inflation has reinforced macro expectations for subsequent Fed rate cuts, and the fundamentals are **medium- to long-term moderate positive**. However, since the market had already surged ahead of time, the positive news after the data release was realized and did not directly translate into upward breakout momentum.
### 2. Price and Market Data (Technical Aspect: Box Consolidation)
* **Price Dynamics**: Today, BTC pulled back from the intraday high near $63,500 to around $62,800, forming a typical 1%-2% narrow retracement consolidation phase.
**Chip distribution**: Below, **$62,000 - $62,500** is concentrated with dense order support; Above, **$64,500 - $65,500** is a strong resistance zone for earlier unwinding and take-profit for bulls.
### 3. Funds and Settlement Data (Liquidity: Volume Shrinking and Waiting)
**Weekend and Delivery Effect**: Coinciding with Friday's options delivery and US spot ETF funds about to enter the weekend halt, short-term funds generally choose to reduce positions and wait before the weekend.
**Volumeless Drawdown**: Volume data continues to shrink, indicating that the current drawdown is mainly due to a lack of follow-up buying and natural pullback, rather than panic selling by major funds.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widened, with expectations for #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points heating up $BTC $ETH $SNDK The S&P 500 is rushing toward 8,000 points, but the real test is just beginning
The US stock market is experiencing a market that surprised many
While many investors were still waiting for a correction, the S&P 500 index had already repeatedly hit new all-time highs. On August 13, the S&P 500 broke above 7800 points intraday and closed near 7800, getting closer to the 8000-point threshold. From 7700 to 7800 points, it took less than two weeks for the index to accelerate significantly.
The core driving force behind this rally is not mere sentimental frenzy, but the simultaneous reinforcement of three logics: cooling inflation, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve, and continued earnings to materialize.
The latest PPI data shows that U.S. product-side price pressures are below expectations, and market concerns about further Fed tightening in September have clearly diminished. After interest rate expectations eased, funds flowed back into stock assets, with technology stocks and growth sectors once again becoming the main driving forces.
But I believe the most noteworthy aspect of this round of rally is not where the index has risen, but that the logic behind the rally is changing.
In recent years, US stock gains relied more on valuation expansion and liquidity expectations, but now the market is increasingly relying on real earnings.
Especially the AI industry chain.
Many people previously questioned whether AI investment was excessive hype, but since the beginning of this year, capital has shifted its focus from the "AI concept" to "whether AI can generate profits."
Companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta continue to expand investment in AI infrastructure, making data centers, cloud computing, chips, optical communications, and power supply chains new growth directions. What the market is truly focused on now is whether these massive capital investments can be converted into higher revenue and cash flow in the future.
This is also why some institutions have started raising their S&P 500 targets.
Citi previously raised its 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,100 points, not simply by valuation increases, but by believing that corporate earnings forecasts are improving. Some institutions also emphasize that future index increases will rely more on profit growth rather than simply valuation expansion.
However, the closer it gets to 8000 points, the more risks cannot be ignored.
The biggest variable in the market right now remains the Federal Reserve.
Although improved inflation data has eased the pressure to raise rates, core inflation remains above the 2% target, and policy will not completely shift based on a single data release. If employment continues to deteriorate in the future, expectations for rate cuts may heat up further; But if energy prices, wages, or services inflation rebounds again, the Fed may remain cautious.
Additionally, a deeper issue is:
Can the AI profit cycle be sustained?
Currently, the market is willing to give tech companies higher valuations because they believe AI will bring the next wave of productivity improvements. If AI capital expenditure continues to grow but profit realization slows down from expectations, valuation pressure may reemerge.
Therefore, 8000 points is neither the end nor a simple psychological number.
It represents a new phase—the era of story-driven growth is ending, and companies will need to prove more profit in the future.
My view is that in the short term, the upward trend in US stocks remains intact, cooling inflation data gives risk assets some breathing room, and the AI industry chain remains the strongest main theme.
But the difficulty of rising will increase significantly.
For the index to continue breaking through, what is needed is no longer just attractive data, but continuous corporate earnings exceeding expectations. Especially in a high valuation environment, any sign of slowing earnings is amplified.
What truly matters is not whether the S&P 500 can break above 8,000 points, but whether, once it does, the market has strong fundamentals to support it to continue going further.
In the coming months, the core competition in U.S. stocks has shifted from "who owns the AI story" to "who can turn AI into profits."
$DOS $OKB $GRVT
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 闪迪到底怎么了？大涨背后的故事你知道吗$SNDK 近期因投资者日释放激进指引而引发的股价大涨，市场观点呈现出明显的分歧。要判断这波行情是“持续性利好”还是“虚高”，我们需要理性看待
$SNDK 具备长期持续性，估值逻辑重塑
支持方认为，闪迪的上涨并非单纯炒作，而是基于基本面和商业模式发生结构性改变，具备长期持续性：
1. 商业模式变革，平滑周期波动：闪迪正试图摆脱传统NAND（闪存）行业“暴涨暴跌”的周期股宿命。通过推出“新商业模式（NBM）”，闪迪已与8家客户签署长期协议，锁定了高达939亿美元的保底营收，并覆盖了2027年约50%、2028年约三分之二的比特出货量。这种长期合同有望让闪迪的盈利结构向逻辑芯片厂商靠拢，提升业绩可预测性。
2. AI推理需求重塑存储层级：随着AI从训练向大规模推理迈进，KV Cache正在重塑数据中心的存储架构。闪迪预计2030年企业数据中心闪存市场规模将达1.2 ZB。此外，公司推出的高带宽闪存（HBF）技术旨在解决AI“内存墙”问题，为未来提供了巨大的想象空间。
3. 激进的财务指引与股东回报：闪迪给出了2028-2030财年毛利率约80%、营业利润率约75%的极高目标。同时，公司承诺将业务投资后的100%剩余现金返还股东，且目前剩余回购额度高达155亿美元，这为股价提供了强有力的底部支撑。
但是预期透支，存在虚高与回调风险
当前的高涨情绪已经透支了未来的业绩兑现能力，存在明显的虚高成分：
1. 利润率目标极度激进，兑现难度大：对于NAND行业而言，80%的毛利率目标处于极高区间。尽管有长期合同托底，但如果后续AI需求或现货价格不及预期，存储板块仍面临巨大的回调压力。
2. 短期指引不及预期引发过“信任危机”：就在8月5日，闪迪公布的Q4财报虽全面超预期，但下季度营收指引略低于市场极高预期，导致股价一度暴跌超8%。这表明市场当前对闪迪的增长斜率极其苛刻，一旦后续业绩增速放缓，极易引发资金出逃。
3. 外部宏观与行业风险：美国政府近期对半导体供应链核心区域（如日本、韩国等）征收关税，增加了供应链的不确定性。此外，HBF等前沿技术目前仍处于早期验证阶段，距离大规模商业化出货尚需时日，短期内难以转化为实际利润。
综合来看，闪迪的上涨既有坚实的长期逻辑支撑，也包含了短期情绪过热带来的虚高成分。
* 从长期看，NBM长约和AI推理需求确实在重塑其估值体系，使其具备持续向上的基本面动力。
* 从短期看，市场已经提前计价了未来几年的完美预期。正如高盛等机构所提醒的，长期合同能否真正削弱行业周期性仍需时间验证。当前高涨的市场预期抬高了业绩兑现的门槛，短期内不排除因宏观波动或指引不及预期而出现回调。 $BTC Hit another US debt bomb!
Long-term financing costs in the U.S. have soared again. The U.S. Treasury completed a $25 billion auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries, with the winning yield rising to 5.216%, the highest since 2001.
What does this mean? Long-term funds are demanding higher returns, and concerns remain in the market about the U.S. fiscal deficit, debt supply, and inflation risks.
The continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields will directly increase government and corporate financing costs, while also increasing yields on risk-free assets, temporarily suppressing valuations of risk assets like US stocks and BTC.
So in the short term, high interest rates are the pressure on BTC. But from a broader cycle perspective, the longer high interest rates persist, the greater the pressure on US debt interest rates, and market expectations for subsequent rate cuts and liquidity easing may reheat.
Therefore, now is not the time to focus solely on a single candlestick. In the short term, high interest rates are holding the market down, causing increased volatility; If BTC experiences a deep pullback, it may actually provide better prices for subsequent capital to re-enter the market.
Next, focus on changes in US Treasury yields and whether BTC can hold its key support.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens, with expectations for #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points heating up $BICO increased by 12.72% over the day, but has been losing ground for the last 12 hours (-2.14%). Activity is cooling - volumes are below average.
The trading range has shrunk, and the price is close to the nearest support of 0.0264. If it loses it, the next one is 0.02625.
The resistance is higher at 0.02836, but it is not yet tested.🚨 $SNDK — THE MARKET FINALLY EXHALED
SanDisk’s latest results were impressive: $8.97B quarterly revenue, +51% sequentially, 84.6% gross margin, and a data-center business that doubled.
Yet the stock initially sold off.
Why? Because the market wasn’t just asking “How much did SanDisk make?”
It was asking: “Can these profits last?”
That’s what made today’s Investor Day more interesting.
t#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets 改革总是螺旋式上升的，往往按下葫芦起了瓢。
分税制、国企改革、汇率改革等等，确实是好的改革，成果也很明显。但是现在我们很多问题也是源于这种改革。
比如分税制虽然增强了中央财政实力，但是地方财政却走出了一条脱离财政管控的路。比如各地的农商行、城商行成了地方政府的钱袋子，后来又出现土地财政。相当于地方政府掌握了一部分铸币权。
国企改革，股份制和有限责任公司制，造就的城投平台、地方国企，反而成了地方政府直接操弄经济的臂膀。
汇率改革后，为了刺激出口，各地政府大规模扶持和鼓励出口，顺差飙升。中央完全控制不了外汇占款的飙升，而外汇占款又一度决定了我们的货币发行。
这些结果是什么？就是中国的地方政府是全世界最有钱，最有权力的地方政府，是唯一不受财政纪律约束的地方政府，也是负债规模最大的地方政府。是全世界唯一能反过来绑架中央经济政策的地方政府，还记得温相那句名言么？
所以有时候看起来很矛盾，在我们这个历来重视中央集权的国家，改革是为了强化中央，结果地方政府反而绑架了全国政策。
这也是这几年来一直在纠正的事。[Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh calculated on his fingers: this isn't an AI battle—it's two brothers fighting to be the 'new king of tech,' and laying out the red carpet for Da Bing!
To sum up: in this round of valuation battles, Anthropic has already stepped in — $65 billion invested in Series H to reach $965 billion, trampling OpenAI ($852 billion) for the first time. Annualized revenue surpassed $47 billion, enterprise customer share soared from 9% to 34.4%, while OpenAI remained stagnant at 32.3%. There are already rumors that OpenAI is planning a $2 trillion unofficial IPO. This isn't going public—it's skyrocketing.
Why did OpenAI fall apart?
It also plays the old trick of "free customer acquisition, paid customer gouging"—ChatGPT has 900 million weekly active users, but the payment rate is less than 6%, earning 1 yuan but losing 2 yuan. The CFO and CEO are fighting over when to go public, with an estimated loss of 200 billion dollars by 2028. Pharaoh exclaimed: Bro, are you doing charity or AI?
Anthropic is much smarter: no longer raising fish, just casting a net to catch big fish! 80% of revenue comes from enterprise APIs, Claude Code sweeps the programming market, and 70% of the Fortune 100 are its sponsors. Even more impressive, it has tied up with three storage giants—Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix—and signed a 45 billion yuan computing power deal with SpaceX—this is not an AI company, it's a "computing power warlord"!
What impact will it have on Bitcoin (BTC)?
In one sentence: It doesn't matter which AI giants go public first; what matters is whether their valuations are stable.
· Successful listing, strong stock price→ The tech sector is hyping, and the big cake is riding the waves.
· Going public below issue price, valuation collapse → Repricing across the entire sector, and even the big pie has to shake a lot.
Remember the Pharaoh's spell: good deals are waited for, but good shows are seen by others. Which of these two brothers rings the bell first, and whether it rings, directly determines how the next round of narrative in the tech world will blow. Let's just grab some small stools, watch them perform, and wait for the big wind.
Pharaoh · Doesn't raise fish, only fish · Computing power observer 😏 $BTC $ETH $SNDK #OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 【BTC 月线级别“切割效应”：中继形态未破，下行趋势仍在延续】
从 BTC 月线级别来看，2026 年 6 月的那根标志性大阴线，在结构上形成了极具破坏力的“区间切割效应”。
细看盘面可以发现一个极具警示意义的技术细节：6 月之前与 6 月之后的月 K 线，尽管影线之间存在相互插针测试，但其实体部分完全处于断层状态、互不交叉。
这在价格行为学（Price Action）中释放了极强烈的空头信号：
1. 阻力有效下移：6 月之前的实体底部区间，已被彻底确立为新一轮强阻力区，多头反弹甚至无法在月线级别实现实体回踩与收复；
2. 中继而非反转：当前下方的震荡仅是跌破关键结构后的弱势休整，并未出现任何月线级别的底部反转吞没形态。
结合此前链上成本线尚未完成终极交叉的周期规律，目前的盘整大概率只是熊市下跌中继。这种实体断层意味着空头牢牢掌握定价权，后市顺势向下寻找更深周期的真实买盘支撑仍是大概率事件。耐心等待53K BTC Realized Price的跌破，切莫急于重仓在半山腰接飞刀。The reason for today's massive $SNDK drop is that SanDisk just finished its "In Focus 2026" investor day, and management directly presented a multi-year financial blueprint covering fiscal years 2028 to 2030. The market was delighted, and the stock price surged instantly.
But as traders, while watching the excitement, one question to ponder: among these long-term grand goals, which ones will actually be realized, and which are just empty promises? This determines whether this rally will be short-term or long-term
I think the first is the market's filter for these cyclical stocks, and when the industry is on the rise, the management's long-term guidance is often accompanied by optimism.
The second is technological iteration and the profit structure between high-end and consumer ends
The first is an emotional effect, and the second won't be a major breakthrough in the short term, so I think this is a short-term benefit. Once I recover over the weekend, it will come down
Moreover, there are many uncertainties in between
The grand blueprint paints a long-term vision under smooth conditions. But the storage industry has always been "overcapacity overnight." Once downstream AI server capital expenditure slows, or if peers release capacity early to compete for market share, the so-called long-term financial model will face corrections.
Wall Street can value stocks with future high growth, but short-term capital is focused on the supply and demand margin for the next quarter.
So if you're interested in SanDisk or the entire storage sector, don't get blinded by long-term grand goals—trading depends on the current situation
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced?
Recently, I came across the phrase "crypto should be valued by revenue," and I think there's nothing wrong with it—air chains should have been exposed long ago. Your public chain earns less than the fruit shop in front of my neighborhood in a year, yet its valuation is in the tens of billions of US dollars. Isn't that ridiculous?
But then I thought, what about BTC?
I checked, and the annual BTC transaction fee is less than $100 million. Sounds good? Market cap is $1.27 trillion, P/S/S ratio is over $12,000. Some people say BTC is only worth $10 per dollar by revenue.
I was stunned for a moment.
Because there's no way to refute it. BTC really doesn't make money—no interest, no dividends, all fees go to miners, and it has nothing to do with the people holding the coin. From a traditional valuation perspective, this is just a piece of code that doesn't generate cash flow.
But gold doesn't generate cash flow.
$XAU Gold has a market value of 20 to 30 trillion yuan—how much can you earn in a year? Zero. No one would be foolish enough to count gold as PE, because gold isn't an asset—it's money.
$BTC This is the path we are taking now.
Its value has nothing to do with income; it depends on scarcity and consensus. 21 million tokens are set to death; after the halving, inflation is 0.8%, even lower than gold. 79% of coins are locked in the hands of long-term holders, while BlackRock and Fidelity are quietly buying. Supply is shrinking, but more and more people are believing it.
You say consensus is fake? Isn't fiat currency also consensus? The US dollar relies on government credit, BTC relies on math and code—decide which is tougher.
What about ETH? ETH at least generates income.
There are three types: gas fees, burning, and staking. On-chain stablecoins are locked over 140 billion, RWA is over 10 billion, and L2 TVL is 30 to 40 billion. The P/S ratio is over a hundred times, two orders of magnitude lower than BTC. But the result is that it fell from 4900 to 1900, a 60% drop, yet no one buys it.
This is quite interesting.
BTC can't be estimated by revenue, but some people believe it; ETH is valued by income but not expensive, but no one buys it. What does that mean? Right now, it's not even about income. Emotions can fly through the air; if emotions run out, even gold will leave you with a pit.
Revenue valuation is the right measure to gauge the air; don't use it to tell BTC or ETH fortunes.
Right now, BTC at 63,000 has been cut in half from last October's high of 126,000; $ETH 1,900 has dropped more than 60% from 4,900, causing widespread lament. But I actually think that when everyone starts questioning their value by "income," it actually means they've been largely neglected.
Who really gets it is just for the fees?
What do you think should BTC and ETH be priced?
Purely communication, personal opinion.The storage sector has been generating positive news and rebounding as expected, but I still chose to take profit
The day before yesterday, I warned that the storage sector was gearing up for a rebound, and SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk rebounded for two consecutive days, with SanDisk surging over 13% yesterday.
Along with the market rebound, the storage sector also saw many positive developments:
Hynix: The market expects the company may further increase share buybacks and shareholder returns; At the same time, Temasek reportedly plans to invest directly in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics through its internal team. It should be noted that Temasek has not officially confirmed this new investment plan.
SanDisk: Board approved a new $14 billion stock repurchase plan, combining existing remaining quotas, bringing total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion; It also presented a clearly better-than-expected long-term financial model — FY28–30 revenue is expected to maintain mid-to-high single-digit to teen-plus growth, adjusted gross margin of about 80%, operating margin about 75%, and plans to prioritize excess cash for repurchases.
Micron: Plans to increase capital returns starting December 9, 2026, and return 100% of excess cash to shareholders over the long term.
But after seeing these positive factors, they couldn't get carried away.
In this rebound, the real fundamental revaluation was seen by SanDisk—a long-term financial model far exceeding expectations directly drove the stock price to a surge on high volume.
In contrast, although Micron and SK Hynix have rebounded significantly, their current volume is not particularly strong.
More importantly:
Repurchases can improve shareholder returns and valuation expectations, but they are not enough to prove that the storage sector has completed a trend reversal on its own.
You can be bullish on positive news, but you shouldn't ignore the signals from price and volume just because there are many positive factors.
Therefore, my holdings of MU and SK Hynix will still take profits near the upper edge of the resistance zone as planned, while SNDK will continue to observe subsequent volume and price performance before making a decision.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
#存储 #SNDK #MU #海力士 #美光 #闪迪Just saw the draft from the Russian central bank. Starting September 1, $BTC, $ETH, and $USDT can be traded on Russian regulated exchanges. Ordinary retail investors can only buy up to 300,000 rubles per year, roughly a bit over 3600, and must pass a test. Qualified investors have no limits. Domestic use for payments is still prohibited; these cryptocurrencies can only be used for trading and cross-border settlements. This will have almost no short-term impact on prices. The limit is too low, so the new buying volume is negligible. BTC hasn't moved much since the news came out, indicating the market had already priced in the "Russia implementing regulation" event. What’s worth noting is that this major mining country is officially incorporating mainstream coins into the official channels. In the long term, the regulatory framework is becoming clearer, which will compress gray market funds but won’t suddenly turn into a positive catalyst. What’s more critical now is tonight’s retail sales data. If the data remains weak, combined with the recent macro sentiment being bearish, BTC’s current range-bound volatility might continue for a while longer. 🚨 WHY IS $SNDK SURGING THIS HARD? THE CATALYST IS BIGGER THAN ONE GOOD DAY.
SanDisk’s latest move appears to be driven by a major fundamental repricing, especially after its Investor Day guidance.
Here’s what the market is focusing on:
1️⃣ 2028–2030 LONG-TERM GUIDANCE
Management outlined ambitious targets including mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth, around 80% gross margin, and roughly 50% free-cash-flow margin.
That directly challenges the idea that SNDK is simply another cyclical memory stock. 👀
2️⃣ AI FLASH MEMORY — THE BIGGER STORY 🤖
SanDisk is positioning its next-generation HBF technology toward AI inference and the growing KV-cache workload.
If AI inference continues consuming more high-performance storage, the market could be looking at a new structural demand driver, rather than just another memory-cycle peak.
3️⃣ CAPITAL RETURN 💰
Management’s commitment to return excess cash to shareholders after completing planned capex adds another layer to the bullish thesis, with dividends and buybacks becoming part of the valuation story.
4️⃣ WALL STREET TARGETS MOVING HIGHER 📈
Major banks have reportedly raised their targets, with Goldman Sachs around $2,200 and JPMorgan around $2,250.
That kind of target-price reset can attract momentum and institutional flows quickly—especially when the broader storage sector is also moving.
👀 What does this mean for the $1,515 short?
This is the uncomfortable part.
The move is no longer purely technical. The market is repricing the long-term story.
A pre-market spike can absolutely see profit-taking after the official open, but expecting an immediate collapse back to your entry is risky if the fundamental narrative remains intact.
If I were managing the risk, I’d focus on:
📉 Sector momentum weakening
📊 Heavy-volume rejection after the open
🔻 Failure to hold key breakout levels
💰 Whether institutional buying continues
And one rule stands out:
Don’t average down into a short just because the position is underwater.
A stock can remain “overbought” much longer than a short seller can remain comfortable.#DailyOrbit 基本面研报 $REDSTONE / RedStone（预言机/中间件） $3.20
本质上看：RedStone（$REDSTONE）综合评分 57/100，评级 叙事重于落地。 三层拆开看，公司团队 有现金储备， 协议网络 已有付费使用痕迹， 代币 捕获已落地。
先看项目：RedStone（代币 $REDSTONE），预言机/中间件 赛道。 主打 模块化预言机。 对标 LINK、PYTH。 传统中心化平台抽佣 15-40%，用户数据不自主。 链上去信任交易费用更低，代币激励把早期用户转化为贡献者。 客单价 50-500 美元/月，需 USDC 或法币结算。叙事驱动型赛道，熊市使用量砍 60-80%。定位细分单点工具。 产品落地：协议层已正式运行，链上仪表盘显示协议手续费正在累积，已有付费使用痕迹。 最新版本 未查到，近 90 天有效提交 60 次。
用户层面，地址 MAU 未披露，DAU 未披露，24h 成交额 $80.00M，TVL 未查到。 钱包地址不等于自然人月活，大额地址集中持仓会高估真实用户量。 收入端，用户费用 未披露， 供应方收入大约是用户费用的 80-90%（归 LP 和节点）， 协议金库收入 $2.00M， 代币持有人回购销毁年化 无销毁机制。 24h 成交额是业务流水不是收入。 公司赚钱不等于协议赚钱，协议赚钱不等于代币持有人赚钱。 代码侧，90 天有效提交 60 次，活跃贡献者 25 人， 最新版本 未查到。GitHub 是 A 级证据可以直接核验。 投资背景，公司股权融资看 PitchBook/Crunchbase（A 级）， 代币私募公募看白皮书和释放曲线以及链上解锁合约（A 级）， 做市商和生态资助是 B 级不代表技术 VC 长期持仓， 技术集成看 API/SDK 接入证据（B 级）， 战略合作和 Logo 墙是 D 级。 NVIDIA GPU 被使用不等于 NVIDIA 投资，交易所上线不等于交易所战略投资。
代币侧，总量 1,300,000,000，流通 950,000,000（73.1%）， FDV $4.20B，下次解锁 2026-Q4（占流通 +3.50%）， 销毁回购年化 无明确回购销毁。用产品必须买币？是，强价值捕获（Gas/抵押/服务准入）。 和同行放一起看（统一口径，不跨赛道乱比）： 流通市值方面，RedStone $3.00B，LINK 未披露，PYTH 未披露。 FDV 方面，RedStone $4.20B，LINK 未披露，PYTH 未披露。 年化收入方面，RedStone $2.00M，LINK 未披露，PYTH 未披露。 月活地址或用户方面，RedStone 未披露，LINK 未披露，PYTH 未披露。 数字以公开数据快照为准，部分缺失由官方自报或行业口径补。 估值，流通市值 $3.00B，FDV $4.20B， P/S 1500.0x，FDV 除以收入 2100.0x。 悲观看 $3.00B 打 5-7 折，中性区间震荡， 乐观看收入翻倍、销毁落地、企业客户进来，FDV 对应 P/S 与头部对齐。 最终判断：基本面扎实（评分 57/100）。代币价值捕获已落地（回购/销毁/Gas）。 流通市值相对基本面偏贵，透支预期，FDV 温和。 需要注意的风险：短期大额解锁砸盘、协议收入长期归零、代币需求仅靠激励（激励断即使用量崩）。 接下来盯这几个数：协议手续费周度、销毁金额、活跃地址留存、TVL/贷款余额、GitHub 版本发布。 数据来自公开渠道，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。指标偏差超 30% 需重新评估。
就聊这么多，下期见。
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitInvestor Day sent a somewhat positive signal, but the market still has doubts about the sustainability of high gross margins. The core contradiction is: Can the 83%+ gross margin be sustained? Before "normalized gross margin" gives a convincing answer, the rebound is more likely to be "volatility disguised as an increase."
Why say "more positive"?
- Long-term contracts lock in the future: Signed 10 long-term agreements with 8 clients, with a minimum income commitment of $93.9 billion; Supporting performance financial protection of $16.5 billion, covering customer default risk
- Long-term contract cycles and capacity coverage: weighted average term exceeding 4 years; Expected to cover over 50% of wafer capacity in fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal year 2028
- Long-term pricing and elasticity: The gross margin is about 80%, retaining upward elasticity during market price increases
- Business Structure Optimization: Enterprise-grade SSDs accounted for 48% of global NAND shipments from 26% a year ago, with industry revenue growing fivefold; Data center business grew 13 times year-on-year, becoming the core engine
- Positive shareholder returns: The board approved an additional $14 billion share repurchase, bringing the total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion
Why is the market still "tense"?
- Sustainability of high gross margin: gross margin reached 84.6% in the June quarter, with guidance for next quarter at 83%–85%, raising market concerns about a "cycle peak"
- Earnings guidance not exceeding expectations: next quarter revenue guidance is $10.3–$10.8 billion, with a median below analyst expectations; With high expectations, "in line with expectations" may also be seen as negative
- Institutional disagreement: Jefferies lowered its target price to $1,750, indicating that earnings heavily depend on price increases; Goldman Sachs and Citibank remain optimistic, setting target prices at $2,200 and $2,500 respectively
- Short Seller Warning: Citron believes NAND is a homogeneous commodity with strong cyclicity, and high gross margins are usually characteristic of the top of the cycle
Trading and observation advice
- Pay attention to the evolution of gross margin guidance: In subsequent financial reports and communications, focus on whether the explanation and guidance range for "normalized gross margin" has been moved upward
- Track long-term contract execution and renewal: On-time delivery and new additions/renewals determine the stability of revenue and gross profit
- Assess changes in business structure: whether the proportion and growth rate of enterprise/data centers continue to improve, and whether consumer-grade is dragging down the overall market
- Leveraging buyback timing: The execution progress of large-scale buyback plans can serve as a point of observation for management confidence and stock price supportQ3 revenue was $9.12 billion, up 25% year-on-year, setting a new record; Adjusted EPS of $3.50 also exceeded market expectations. The median revenue guidance for the next quarter is $10.25 billion, also above Wall Street expectations. But the result was that the stock price fell nearly 5% in pre-market trading. The problem is no longer poor performance. It's because chip equipment stocks have risen too much over the past year, and now the market isn't looking for 'growth,' but for consistently and significantly exceeding expectations. Applied Materials has thus sent a signal. Chip fundamentals can remain strong, but as long as they don't exceed everyone's expectations, stock prices will still fall.$XTQQQ and six other tokenized US stock stocks have launched for round-the-clock trading. The core market conflict lies in the collision between liquidity discount during the US market closure and the redistribution of crypto funds' risk appetite.
$XTQQQ Relying on the xStocks architecture on Solana and X Layer, it supports 24-hour trading and automatic dividend reinvestment mechanisms. Since tokens lack legal ownership and voting rights for the underlying company, their structural pricing anchors still heavily depend on the true liquidity of traditional market trading hours.
The driving factors affecting the market are, in order: traditional spread changes during US market off-market periods, the efficiency of on-chain grids and DCA strategies in absorbing chips, and the transmission of macro inflation expectations to overall market risk appetite. Changes in the concentration of on-chain positions during non-trading hours directly determine short-term volatility levels.
In the upward scenario, if macro risk appetite remains stable and the US stock market rises, arbitrage funds will maintain buy and sell order depth overnight, confirming the 24-hour liquidity premium of $XTQQQ. The variable to watch is the frequency of offshore market makers' order replenishment; if the spread remains locked in a very small range, the bullish market will remain effective.
In a downward scenario, if a sudden macro inflation data variable occurs during the US market closure, market makers may quickly withdraw liquidity due to the closure of hedging channels, causing price spreads to widen sharply. Once on-chain automated strategies passively trigger selling orders during a liquidity vacuum, the market will quickly converge toward the discount range.
Signals of pricing logic failure include: during non-US trading hours, $XTQQQ prices deviate more than 2% from the underlying asset benchmark without arbitrage capital recovery. At this point, the on-chain market-making hedging mechanism fails, and prices shift to pure on-chain chip competition.
The most important variable to watch over the next 7 days is the speed of spread convergence during the transition between US stock market openings and closes, as well as the actual order depth of automated trading tools during low-liquidity periods.
#韩股十日反弹逾22%, chip stocks lead gains; #AMD完成历史最大美元债发行: Raised $4.75 billionOKB完成稀缺化之后，真正需要证明的不是还能不能涨
$OKB 最容易吸引流量的地方，是供应变化和平台生态带来的想象空间。X Layer升级以后，OKB被进一步明确为网络原生Gas资产，历史回购储备的一次性处理以及旧生态资产的迁移，也让市场重新讨论它的稀缺性。对价格交易者来说，减少供应当然直观；但对长期估值来说，供应只是分母，真正决定价值的仍然是分子有没有增长。
平台资产过去常见的逻辑，是交易量越大、用户越多，代币就越有价值。这种说法只讲了一半。如果用户只在中心化账户里交易，却不需要使用OKB，流量与代币需求之间就存在断层。X Layer的重要性，正是尝试把这种断层接起来：让钱包、支付、链上交易和应用使用都需要同一个原生资产承担费用和生态功能。
因此，OKB下一阶段最关键的指标不只是成交量，而是X Layer上有多少真实行为。活跃地址是否持续增长，稳定币是否沉淀，应用是否产生重复使用，开发者是否愿意长期维护产品，Gas需求是否来自自然交易而不是活动补贴。这些数据如果改善，供应收缩才有经济意义；如果链上使用没有跟上，稀缺叙事就容易变成筹码叙事。
从正面看，OKB拥有很多新公链没有的起点。交易平台本身就具备庞大的用户入口、钱包分发、资产上架和流动性组织能力，新用户不需要从零学习一套陌生体系。只要账户与钱包之间的路径足够顺畅，平台里已经存在的交易需求就有机会迁移到链上。这种“先有用户，再建生态”的模式，比完全依靠开发者补贴吸引流量更有效率。
同时，稳定币与代币化资产正在成为链上竞争的核心。用户真正愿意长期留下的原因，往往不是某个短期热点，而是能够低成本转账、管理资产、参与收益工具和完成跨境结算。X Layer如果只复制一批交易应用，很难形成差异；如果能够利用平台的合规入口和流动性，把现实资产、稳定币和钱包体验连接起来，OKB才可能从平台权益资产变成网络生产资料。
风险也必须说清楚。生态与平台绑定越深，效率可能越高，但市场也会更加关注治理透明度、规则稳定性和价值如何回流。用户会问Gas价格是否合理，开发者会问平台会不会改变扶持方向，持币者会问生态增长究竟增加了哪些真实需求。任何一次规则不清或预期落差，都可能让稀缺性带来的溢价迅速收缩。
另一个风险是，低手续费本身已经不是护城河。很多网络都能提供便宜交易，真正稀缺的是用户愿意把大额资产长期放进去的信任。安全、跨链、审计、稳定币深度和应用质量，任何一项缺失都会限制资金沉淀。OKB要竞争的不是谁的TPS宣传更高，而是谁能把平台用户转化成链上长期用户。
所以观察OKB，我会把指标分成三层。第一层看供应和链上Gas需求，判断代币经济是否健康；第二层看稳定币、钱包与应用活跃，判断用户是不是只来一次；第三层看开发者和高价值资产，判断生态能不能脱离单一热点持续运转。三个层次同时改善，才是真正的估值升级。
我对OKB的判断是偏积极但有条件。供应收缩解决了“筹码会不会持续稀释”的担忧，X Layer解决了“代币在哪里使用”的框架问题，但市场最终还要看到使用强度。稀缺资产没有需求，只是更少的筹码；稀缺资产进入高频网络，才可能形成持续价值。
$OKB 已经把供应故事讲到了足够清楚的位置，接下来不需要再证明它有多稀缺，而要证明每一枚留在市场上的OKB，都有越来越多必须使用它的场景。#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
1. Real-time data
Nebius's Q2 AI cloud revenue rose 514% year-on-year, with its stock price soaring 34% in a single day; SanDisk's data center business revenue rose 233% quarter-on-quarter; Microsoft and Google Cloud's AI business revenues both maintained 20+ growth rates; $BTC Current price 64,080U, AI sector tokens surged slightly, decentralized storage $FIL and $RENDER strengthened simultaneously.
2. Core underlying logic
Major tech companies have released financial reports one after another, with AI computing power and storage businesses all exceeding expectations. Long-term subscription orders for computing power are locked in future revenue, confirming the continued surge in demand for AI infrastructure; The traditional computing power industry is on the rise, driving on-chain decentralized computing and storage themes to attract capital, but most companies continue to invest heavily in capacity expansion, posing risks of prolonged profit realization cycles.
3. Personal Views
My trading style is cautious; I won't follow the trend to chase short-term AI-themed altcoins. I only allocate small positions in fundamentally solid computing and storage coins, and only consider increasing positions after earnings reports cool down and the market stabilizes, waiting for the overall bull market to warm up in the long term.
These represent only personal views and do not constitute investment adviceI was watching the Dusk consensus flow and the odd part wasn’t the reward split. It was the waiting. A generator can have a block ready, but that still doesn’t mean much until validation and ratification catch up. That small gap says more about the system than the percentages do. A provisioner isn’t useful because DUSK is sitting in stake. It’s useful because the node is online, synchronized, selected, and capable of doing the next piece of work when the network asks for it. Miss that window and the capital is there, but the security contribution isn’t.
That changes how I think about the incentives. More stake may improve the chance of participation, sure, but it doesn’t rescue weak operations. And separating proposal from acceptance forces operators into different kinds of responsibility instead of letting one role dominate the whole path to finality.
I’m less certain about what happens when participation gets much larger. More provisioners sounds stronger on paper, but more actors also means more coordination, more uneven infrastructure, more chances for someone to optimize around the reward logic rather than the actual job. That’s the bit I’d keep watching: under heavier activity, do operators stay responsive because the incentives work, or do they start finding cheaper ways to look responsive? #dusk $DUCK The U.S. stock market has just triggered a large-scale short squeeze, and the crypto market quickly followed suit.
Cooling initial jobless claims and weakening PPI data further reinforced market expectations for Fed rate cuts, pushing U.S. Treasury yields lower and forcing aggressive short covering in tech and storage stocks with high short positions.
This momentum then spread to the crypto market:
$BTC and $ETH found support, with ETH showing stronger resilience and ETF inflows serving as important support.
Meanwhile, stock-pegged tokens like $xSNDK and $xSPCX also saw significant gains; while most small-cap meme coins saw brief speculative rallies in their rally.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets The S&P is closer to 8,000 points, but SOL won't receive greeting cards from Wall Street. This topic can only follow the risk appetite path—it's not a positive project or a rally from afar.
I'm more concerned about whether the rally is spreading. If small-cap, tech, and crypto stocks all strengthen, SOL's relative strength relative to BTC, spot trading volume, and perpetual open interest should corroborate each other.
Trading volume didn't keep up, like many people shouting to buy at the dinner table, but not a single person scanned the code. Prices rose while funding rates soared too fast, which actually felt like leverage had already taken the seat.
So don't just count the S&P a few points to be 8,000 points away. When looking at SOL, I put relative strength and spot volume side by side; Only when both are stable can risk appetite truly pass through.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of the risks #$SOL Nearly half of the people lost money—who could withstand this market trend?
$BTC The profit-to-supply ratio has dropped to 51.4%, a three-year low. The last time I saw this number was during the FTX crash. A week ago it was 52%, then it dropped another hell of more than a point
The analyst spoke the blunt truth—when profit supply falls below 50%, it's the market's final stage. Everyone who needs to sell is sold; what's left is either playing dead or being whales. Glassnode is even harsher: 45 price indicators all show blue lights together, and the capitulation period is even longer than during FTX's time
But on the other hand, BlackRock absorbed 50.19 million BTC in one day, and ETFs made 850 million in the first week of August. The whale added 46,420 BTC in 60 days, the highest since March
Some are cutting losses, some are taking over—it's an old script
A profit-to-supply ratio of 51.4% is indeed alarming, but historically, every time such an extreme signal appears, it is close to the bottom
What's there to be afraid of?本周最大的特点，我觉得可以用两个字来形容：磨洋工。
全球市场其实都在干活，但我们看着好像涨了点什么，又好像什么都没真正涨出来。
昨天市场又开始担心日本央行加息，不过如果把视野稍微拉开一点看，其实没必要把这件事看得太重。
你看标普已经创了历史新高，纳指距离历史高点也不远；日经、台股同样还在历史高位附近。韩国虽然相对弱一些，但这周基本也是每天都在往新高的方向走。
现在真正有意思的地方在于：全球风险资产的整体环境并不差，但资金似乎又没有特别强的追涨意愿。
这也是为什么最近的盘面总给人一种感觉——
大家都没下班，但也没人特别想加班。
所以与其纠结某一天是不是因为日本加息跌了，不如继续观察一个更重要的问题：
全球资产都在高位的时候，后面到底还有没有新的增量资金愿意把价格再往上推一层。
这可能才是接下来市场真正需要回答的问题。$ETH $BTC $QQQ #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #高盛收购Neos, crypto ETFs are shifting to earnings competition
Goldman Sachs did something on Wednesday: it spent $2.25 billion to buy an ETF company called NEOS. Simply put, it was about trading money for time, saving the trouble of building teams and products from scratch.
So, what kind of company is NEOS? It was only founded in 2022 and manages 19 options strategy ETFs, with a total scale of $30 billion. But the most valuable part of that $30 billion isn't its size, but the product line—Bitcoin High Yield ETF (BTCI), Enhanced Bitcoin High Yield ETF (XBCI), Ethereum High Yield ETF (NEHI). BTCI was only released in October last year and has raised $1.1 billion in less than a year.
More importantly, the operating model. These three crypto funds do not directly hold coins but generate monthly cash flow through spot ETPs plus covered call options. The fee rate is high (0.99% vs. BlackRock IBIT's 0.25%), but it sells "stable cash flow," not "price appreciation."
This acquisition marks a new stage in the crypto ETF competition. The first phase is about "who can legally buy Bitcoin"—BlackRock won, with over 50 billion IBIT leaving everyone behind. The second phase is about "who can profit from Bitcoin's volatility." Goldman Sachs spent $2.25 billion not on scale, but on the option strategy capability that can turn volatility into cash flow.
In the first quarter of this year, Goldman Sachs liquidated its XRP and SOL ETF positions, and also cut BTC and ETH. Sell in the first quarter, buy in the third quarter—cutting "held assets" and buying "strategic capability." Behind the 600 million yuan adjustment in holdings is a revision of the path of financial adoption of crypto assets. BlackRock also launched a similar Bitcoin yield ETF (BITA) in June, currently about 59 million. After Goldman Sachs entered the market, the crypto yield ETF sector truly began.After the cooling of MEME, who will still be leading the way, DOGE or PEPE?
Memes aren't as crazy as they used to lately
The market no longer buys just any chart
Funds are starting to focus on a core issue
Who still has traffic?
DOGE still cannot be avoided
Its biggest trump card isn't technology, but Musk and X's payment expectations
As soon as the market starts discussing whether X will make payments,
Will it be connected to cryptocurrency?
DOGE is easily re-speculated
This is the advantage of established MEMES
No need to re-educate the market
A message, a hint
Naturally, everyone would think of it
But DOGE's problems are also obvious
The market is big, and it's not so easy to skyrocket
It's more like the big brother in a meme
There is consensus, but elasticity is not necessarily the maximum
$PEPE represents the new generation of MEME traffic
It doesn't have complicated stories
It relies on memes, community sentiment, and the speed of their spread
Market sentiment warmed up
PEPE tends to attract short-term capital more easily
Its characteristics are very straightforward
Light enough, fast enough, emotional enough
Suitable for creating short-term hype
But there are risks here too
PEPE does not have DOGE's long-term external narrative
If the market cools down
The traffic will also reject quickly
So who can set the tone depends on what the market is speculating on
If X payments are being hyped up, Musk speaks out, and the classic MEME is making a comeback
$DOGE It's easier to be the center of attention
If the hype mood recovers, short-term chasing will follow, and new MEME rotations will occur
$PEPE Resilience may be stronger The Three Musketeers of Storage Spark a Rebound, Cryptocurrencies Under Pressure and Differentiation—Asset Repricing Amid the AI Wave
In mid-August 2026, the global capital markets experienced a rare divergence: the "storage trio" represented by SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix rebounded strongly, leading the semiconductor sector to continue rising; while crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum remained under pressure, hovering at yearly lows. Behind this divergence lies a profound reshaping of the AI industry's logic of traditional asset pricing systems.
SanDisk's "Trump Card" Guidance Ignites the Entire Storage Sector
The trigger for this rebound was SanDisk's $SNDK "explosive" long-term financial guidance at the 2026 Investor Day. The company expects revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth from fiscal years 2028 to 2030, non-GAAP gross margin at around 80%, operating margin around 75%, and adjusted free cash margin around 50%. For a traditionally highly cyclical NAND storage industry, this set of targets is quite ambitious.
What excites the market even more is the restructuring of its business model. SanDisk has signed long-term agreements for new business models (NBMs) with eight clients, covering about 50% of shipments in fiscal year 2027, and raising this to two-thirds in fiscal year 2028. The market no longer sees SanDisk as a cyclical stock that moves with NAND prices, but is revaluing it as a long-term infrastructure asset benefiting from AI inference.
The market quickly "voted with its feet." SanDisk closed up over 13%, Western Digital and SK Hynix $SKHYNIX rose over 7%, and Micron Technology gained over 4%. The Bloomberg Asia Semiconductor Stock Index rose more than 19% from its July low, marking its fifth consecutive trading day higher. JPMorgan Chase immediately upgraded SanDisk's rating to "overweight," noting that long-term agreements have "structurally reset their profit margin levels, substantially reducing cyclicality."
The three storage musketeers are making a joint effort, with AI demand reshaping the industry landscape
SanDisk is not an isolated case. Micron's Technology Business Director said at the KeyBanc Technology Conference that the memory market in 2027 will be "tighter" than this year, AI demand will outpace new capacity, and structural supply constraints will continue beyond next year. Driven by AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory, SK Hynix's stock price surged 8.25%, with its market value surpassing $1.12 trillion. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.3% in a single day, led by the storage sector.
The entire storage industry is undergoing a valuation shift from "cyclical stocks" to "AI infrastructure assets." AI is moving from training to large-scale inference, and storage is shifting from "data warehouses" to "infrastructure closer to computing power."
The crypto market is under pressure, and capital flows are diverging
In stark contrast to the fiery growth in the storage sector, the cryptocurrency market remains sluggish. As of August 14, Bitcoin traded near $63,530, while Ethereum$ETH hovered around $1,860, both in the low range after a deep correction this year. Spot ETF inflows have plummeted by more than 80% since mid-July. Analysts point out that Bitcoin remains under pressure, with bearish momentum resurfacing.
The market is reallocating shares—funds are flowing from crypto assets lacking clear industry support to storage semiconductors backed by solid AI demand. When SanDisk tells the market with an 80% gross margin target that "storage is no longer a cyclical stock," and when Micron and SK Hynix prove the real existence of AI demand with "capacity sold out," the choice of capital is self-evident. This AI-driven asset repricing may only be beginning.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced?
Brothers, the valuation logic of the crypto market is undergoing a quiet revolution.
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently said something quite striking — "The value of crypto assets other than Bitcoin will increasingly be determined by the same metric of stocks and bonds: revenue."
What does that mean? It means that in the past, people traded cryptocurrencies by the narrative, by sentiment, and whose stories were more grand; Now it's different. Hyperliquid generated over $800 million in revenue last year and used 99% of its buyback to burn HYPE; Uniswap, Aave, and Solana are all following suit. When protocols make money, tokens benefit too—once this logic works, the valuation of altcoins will completely change.
What about Bitcoin?
It is precisely an exception. $BTC no cash flow is generated, no buybacks or burns, and holders receive no dividends. According to the new "revenue pricing" standard, Bitcoin simply cannot be calculated using this model.
But the problem is—if the entire market is pricing assets based on revenue, then why is an asset with "no income" worth over $60,000?
Is it because of the scarcity of 21 million? Is it the narrative of "digital gold"? Or is it simply because everyone believes it's worth that price?
The answer to this question may determine whether the $BTC or altcoins will be the true winners in the next cycle.Everyone is watching to see if BTC will break 63,000, but today the question is: Is this market experiencing schizophrenia?
On one side, Shinhan (Shinhan Asset) just partnered with Plume to pilot tokenized funds, with institutions secretly laying pipelines; On the other hand, the ECB had just completed its investigation—only 0.2% of merchants in the Eurozone actually accept crypto payments, and on the same day, JPMorgan cut off Polymarket's banking channels.
BTC $62,895, 24h -0.8%, Breadth 5 up 10 down (taking a breather from yesterday's 3 gains and 12 losses), volume -48.6% still shrinking.
The two legs of incremental funds—real payments + TradFi channels—one hasn't grown, the other is still being cut. If the volume can't recover above -20%, it's not shakeout, it's just that no new entrants are entering the market.
What can be taken away: Don't just look at price to guess the bottom. Look at two leading indicators—stablecoin on-chain circulation + CEX net reserves. If the price stays sideways but doesn't turn around, it's just a false stabilization.
Do you dare to copy this game? If you do, explain your reasons in the comments. Don't just shout "bottoming out"—let me see whose insightful insights can prove me wrong.
Crypto assets carry high risk. The above is purely personal nonsense and does not constitute investment advice.
#OKX星球 $BTC #加密采用 #传统金融背离$OKB U.S. crypto regulation enters a "double wait": legislation stops, rules stop
August is a key month for the crypto market: the full Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and the SEC's public meeting on new crypto asset issuance regulations. Now, both have been postponed $SNDK
Let's start with the bills. The CLARITY Act passed the House last July by a vote of 294 to 134, and in May this year, the Senate Banking Committee passed it 15 to 9, making it look like a smooth ride. But when it came to a full House vote, it got stuck. The Senate failed to proceed with the procedural vote before the August recess, and after rescheduling, it had to wait until September 15. The market predicts that the probability of becoming law this year is only 21%, and Grescal's analysts also think that, considering the Senate schedule and the political realities of the election year, the chances of passage this year are already very low.
Now, let's talk about the SEC. On August 11, the SEC announced it would hold a public meeting on August 14 to review new regulations for crypto asset investment contract registration. But on August 13, it was directly canceled. The White House and Wall Street simultaneously pressured the waiver plan to be postponed again, with no rescheduling date announced yet.
So now, crypto regulation in the US is like this—the legislative line has stopped, and the rules line has stopped as well.
In the short term, key issues such as market structure, token issuance rules, and tokenized securities pilots will not have clear answers. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins previously said that "digital securities," that tokenized traditional securities, are the only crypto asset class subject to securities law. The SEC and CFTC recently issued joint guidance, dividing digital assets into five categories. Simply put, the SEC wants to bypass the legislative deadlock and use its existing authority to build its own regulatory framework. But the problem is that guidance documents can be revised or revoked by the next committee at any time, so legislation remains stable.
This is the current reality: rules may exist, but they can change at any time; legislation is desired, but it's highly unlikely this year. The procedural vote on the September 15 CLARITY Act can be watched, but the probability is 21%.
The crypto market's biggest fear is not bad rules, but the lack of rules. Right now, the U.S. is stuck in this "no rules" state.
No one can say for sure how long this ambiguity will last. But one thing is certain: as long as it doesn't materialize, institutional funding concerns will not disappear for a day. Let's see if the procedural vote passes on September 15—if it does, there's still hope, but we'll have to wait until next year.
#CLARITY表决待定, the SEC rules have not been implemented $BTC $BTC Hold at 63,300 after three steps, rebound to 63,500
Volume can't keep up, 64,000 is a hurdle, trapped positions are heavy, lacking incremental funds.
$ETH Languid, hold on at 1860, can't push forward at 1890
$SOL Stuck at 75.5, 77 resistance is sideways for two weeks, supported purely by expectations.
Grinding stage:
✅If 63,300 does not break below 63,300, light position will be tested | stop loss at 63,000, take profit near 64,000
❌ If it falls below 63,000, wait for 62,500 before watchingNews of simultaneous cooling of CPI and PPI has been posting all day, with all the forum topics pinned to the top, but $BTC at 62,881 still can't hold back to 63,000. No response to positive news, which looks worse than negative news—it shows no one believes inflation stories now; the market is dominated purely by capital.
During the day, I watched the market, and every time it rebounded to 63,000, it was knocked back. The pattern was exactly the same: rally first, then dump, just to buy the dip. I spent a whole day grinding at the 62,500 gap below without filling it. Whether to make up or not is up tonight.
The myth of $APR triple is still circulating on the counterfeit side, but look at $RAVE and $SNDK, smart money has already turned around to short and waited for zero. The script of pumping up the sales has been going on for two days—it's time to change the main character.
$ETH 1877 and $SOL 75.5 remain flat. In this kind of market, positions are half open; don't bet on data, follow volume and move in. Money is waited for, not grabbed.
$BTC $ETH $SOLToday, $SNDK finally managed to prove its pride, and the frustration from a few days ago was finally gone.
Looking back at SanDisk's financial report, to be honest, my first reaction was confusion—quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion, up 51% quarter-over-quarter, gross margin hit 84.6%, data center business doubled, yet the stock price was still hammered when the report came out. I thought: isn't this report card impressive enough? What exactly is the market nitpicking?
Later, after thinking it over, it was clear that people weren't complaining about the low earnings this season, but worried about whether the money could be held up. Everyone knows the old problem of the storage industry—during price hikes, everyone is a stock god. Once capacity is relaxed, profits collapse instantly, and the situation changes faster than flipping a book.
So what truly caught people's attention at today's Investor Day was not how many times management kept talking about "AI," but that it was finally starting to directly address the core question: how can SanDisk shed the old label of "pure cyclical stock"?
The answer is quite straightforward. The company has already signed new long-term agreements with eight clients, covering about half of the shipments in fiscal year 2027, and nearly two-thirds in fiscal year 2028. Simply put, it means setting part of demand and price in advance, avoiding those rollercoaster days of "eating meat this year, drinking the northwest wind next year."
Even more hardcore is the long-term target set by management: for fiscal years 2028 to 2030, non-GAAP gross margin must be maintained at around 80%, adjusted free cash flow margin at about 50%, and after necessary capital expenditures are met, all remaining cash will be returned to shareholders. Seeing this, I finally understand why the market is willing to pay and applaud today.
Previously, people only saw NAND price hikes when looking at $SNDK; Now, the company wants to change everyone's perspective—it's not just selling storage chips, but the increasingly sought-after "data warehouse" space for AI data centers.
Of course, I don't dare to shout about the stars and the sea right now. Long-term goals are ultimately goals. Whether HBF can truly be implemented, whether long-term contracts can hold up profits, and how much gross margin remains after NAND prices fall will all be verified by subsequent earnings reports quarter by quarter.
But at least today, SanDisk has shown the market a glimpse of change: it may still be bound by cycles, but behind this cycle, there is an AI data engine that never shuts down.
Computing power is for thinking, storage is for memory. In the past, everyone's spotlight was on computing power, but now someone is finally starting to seriously examine the puzzle piece of storage.
$ETH
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up Inflation is cooling down, yet the Fed is still making a fuss. How should we view the September scenario?
With US July CPI and PPI data both falling short of market expectations, both consumer and production side inflation curves finally started to lower in sync. Coupled with a rebound in initial jobless claims, Wall Street's concerns about continued rate hikes in September instantly vanished.
Strangely, the voices within the Fed have not been unified because of this; hawks are still tightening the grip on regional freight rates and tariff stickiness, while dovish factions are quietly laying the groundwork for hidden cracks in the labor market to cut rates.
Many people ask me, when macro data and official statements frequently clash, does this actually disrupt the trading rhythm of the crypto market?
My actual experience is that keeping rates unchanged in September is already a clear signal; the real variable is not whether to raise rates, but rather the "expectation fragility" accumulated by the market after excessive front-running.
When I watch the market daily, I never rush to cut or increase positions just because an official makes a few harsh remarks.
Because when officials themselves cannot provide clear guidance, their speeches are essentially emotional noise.
The only ones that will directly change my position arrangement are the two core hard indicators.
The first is the "gap speed" between inflation and employment. If the CPI falls and the unemployment rate jumps more than expected, this is not a champagne soft landing but a recession warning of the economy rapidly sliding toward a hard landing. Early recession rate cuts are often accompanied by cross-market credit contraction and asset deleveraging.
The second is the turning point between the US dollar index and real US Treasury yields. As long as the 10-year US Treasury yield stays firmly above 4.5%, liquidity will still be firmly locked in by traditional risk-free assets, making it difficult for crypto assets to emerge from a sweeping unilateral main rally.
So during periods of intense macro expectations, my trading discipline is very simple: I don't blindly guess price points or use maximum leverage to gamble on fleeting fluctuations in macro data releases.
Keep your position within a comfortable range that allows you to sleep at night, patiently wait for the macro expectations to finish firing their bullet—that's better than anything.
---
💬 Here's a question for you watching this question: facing inflation cooling but officials still divided, do you think the Fed will hold steady or start cutting rates in September? Will this change your plan for adjusting positions for the coming month? Share your thoughts in the comments section.
The above content represents only personal perspective sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened 海力士判断2027年存储荒会进一步加剧，核心来自供需两端。需求端AI服务器爆发，HBM. DRAM被云厂商大量锁单，大模型推理持续消耗海量内存，消费电子也有刚需叠加供给端，厂商资本开支优先倾斜高附加值HBM,挤压普通存储产能；新建晶圆厂、洁净室周期漫长，设备交付慢，短期很难快速放
当前行业库存处在历史低位，大厂2027
量，年产能大多已被提前预定这一轮短缺确实直接利好存储芯片板块，存模组企业受益涨价与产能紧缺，业储原厂、
绩弹性最大。$SNDK $MU Tether 宣布完成首次全面财务审计，审计方是 KPMG 美国所，结论是无保留意见，也就是最干净的那种。官方说这是金融史上最大规模的首次审计。
对普通用户来说，这条消息的意义在于：稳定币发行方第一次愿意把完整账本交给四大事务所查。但要注意，首次审计通过不等于永远没问题，它证明的是过去某个时点报表真实。
以后判断一个稳定币值不值得信任，我按三步看：
1. 审计方是谁，四大和不知名小所分量完全不同
2. 审计范围覆盖多少资产，是全量储备还是部分
3. 审计频率，一次性还是定期公开
稳定币的信任不是靠一次审计建立的，是看它愿不愿意持续把账本摊开给人看。Most coverage of crypto policy right now fixates on a single date. That's understandable — it's dramatic, it's countdown-friendly, it fits in a headline. But it also misses half the story. There are actually two separate regulatory processes unfolding on completely different timelines, and only one of them is currently visible to most retail traders. Track A: Legislation, Moving in Fits and Starts The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) has spent over a year crawling through Congress. TWhen ETH breaks out, most people watch for the spectacle, but the real focus is on the two markets next door. Have you noticed that every time you think it's "stable," the market loves to joke with you? Last night before bed, I glanced at the market, and $ETH suddenly surged, breaking through 1870—just two minutes after I posted. To be honest, I was stunned for several seconds at that moment—not because it had risen, but because it came much earlier than I expected. I originally thought it would wait until daytime for a move, but it turned the "uncertainty" into a "certain" point, moving it up overnight. But I didn't get happy right away; instead, I became clear-headed. Because breakouts of this level are usually ETH's own business on the surface, but behind the scenes, cross-market funds are often rearranging seats. If the US dollar index, US stock futures, or gold move first, crypto will shake along with it. $ETH is pushing so quickly, it's more like external liquidity has put the accelerator on the gas, not just bullish sentiment. So my first reaction isn't to chase, but to see its "momentum." If this breakout is real, the pullback should be shallow. If it holds above 1850, it means capital is willing to buy, so the remaining positions can be viewed slowly. But if it falls below 1850 and can't close, that's more likely a fake move to trick those chasing highs. I went to bed to review the stop-loss logic before finally closing the screen. There's a point that's easy to overlook: the "speed" and "persistence" of a breakout are two different things.$CAP Analysis of the evening gainers leaderboard
The evening contract gainers list again saw a collective celebration of small-cap thematic stocks, with $CAP and $2Z leading the way. A group of coins surged collectively, mostly driven by capital sentiment, not fundamental changes; traps are everywhere.
$CAP: Surged 25.33% in the evening, with a turnover of 557 million yuan. Short-term funds flooded in, a typical speculative push. These coins rise quickly and are relentless in cashing out. Don't chase after high-level profits and exit decisively.
$2ZUSDT: +20.89%, pulse rally, small market size, market entirely dominated by short-term funds without long-term narrative support, market reversal occurred as soon as it spontaneously.
H. AEON: Old favorites rotate repeatedly, capital keeps trading back and forth, and the ups and downs are very frequent, making it easy to keep buying and selling
$SNXX: Rose 13.31%, with a large trading volume. This is a trend in the sector rather than a logical breakthrough.
Overall Market Summary:
Tonight's list is all speculative speculative speculation. Many people, seeing a big rise, subjectively judge the market is about to end, immediately go all out, only to be repeatedly driven up and harvested; Others get impulsive and chase highs, immediately buying high-level chips.
If you make a mistake, dare to admit defeat and exit; don't stubbornly cling to your own views. Small coins won't follow your ideas; holding trades will only amplify floating losses. Better to earn less than to open large positions for gambling. If you have profits, pocket them and firmly hold onto your principal
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard #SandiskLongTermTargets Sandisk used its August 13 Investor Day to present an ambitious FY2028–FY2030 financial framework. Management expects mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth, approximately 80% adjusted gross margin and around 75% operating margin. The company also plans to return all excess cash after funding the business. Multi-year customer agreements are expected to cover a larger portion of NAND shipments and improve revenue visibility.
These targets show strong confidence in AI data-center storage and Sandisk’s high-bandwidth flash roadmap. Nevertheless, NAND remains a cyclical industry where supply expansion can quickly pressure pricing. Long-term contracts may reduce volatility, but they cannot eliminate technology competition or execution risk. The most important signal will be whether Sandisk can maintain premium margins after supply catches up with demand—not merely while AI infrastructure spending remains unusually strong. 省了来回切。
OKX 把 TradFi 信息聚合页升级了，公司概况、财务趋势、机构持仓这些原本要跨好几个网站凑的信息，现在一个页面能看完。官方说这是第一版，后面还会加维度。
功能本身不新鲜，新鲜的是交易平台开始认真做"看懂标的"这件事，而不是只让你盯价格跳动。
我提醒一句：页面信息来自平台整理，引用前自己再核一遍，别把平台的展示直接当成全部事实。Here is a simple prediction post you can share, written in clear US English:
## 🚀 $TRX/USDT Short-Term Price Prediction
Looking at the 15-minute chart for **TRX/USDT**, TRON is currently trading around **$TRX 0.3333**, sitting very close to its 24-hour low of **$0.3330**.
### 📊 **What the Chart Shows**
* **Support Level:** Buyers are trying to defend the **$TRX 0.3330** mark.
* **Resistance Level:** The immediate price ceiling to beat is around **$0.3348**.
* **Trend:** The moving averages are sloping down, showing slight downward pressure in the short term.
### 🔮 **Short-Term Scenarios**
* **Bullish (Upward Bounce):** If TRX holds strong above **$0.3330**, we could see a quick bounce back up toward **$0.3345 – $0.3348**.
* **Bearish (Further Drop):** If sellers break below **$0.3330**, the price may drop to test new lower support levels.
> **Summary:** TRX is currently consolidating near a key support level. Watch the **$0.3330** price point closely—if it holds, a short-term bounce is very possible!
>
Are you planning to buy the dip here, or are you waiting for a bigger move?$TRX 125 million short positions, 40x leverage, liquidation price 63,529! Only 300 🥶 dollars away from liquidation
0xff84 this address, starting August 5th, it went head-to-head with BTC—1,600 coins increased to 2,000 coins, the more losses increased, the more determined it became. 2.7 million in equity leveraged 125 million, price jump 0.5% and then exploded on the spot
Let's recall this guy's brilliant move: on August 5, he entered 1,600 coins; on August 7, BTC jumped to 65,000; after selling 200 coins, he lost 146,000. You think this was admitting defeat? No, it was just a way to survive. On August 12, he added 1,010 coins, and on August 14, he reached 2,000 coins. The liquidation price rose from 64,889 to 63,529
CPI stabilized, and the probability of rate hikes dropped below 50%. Retail investors panicked, ETFs were stocking up, and in the first week of August, they made 850 million. He bet 125 million that BTC would fall below 63,000
63,529. As long as BTC returns to this, 125 million will be wiped out
With the fuel ready, all that's left is a bullish candlestick 🚀