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$CORE 今天这波百分之十几的拉升，属于长期下跌后的情绪反弹，不是趋势彻底反转。各位不要激动很快会打回原形的。 市场想预先炒作SatPay落地预期，社群热度起来，一部分观望资金进场抄底；加上前期价格持续走低，抛压短期释放干净，少量买盘就能拉出不小涨幅。很多持有者把这次上涨，当成SatPay正式落地的提前行情。 SatPay目前依旧处在测试阶段，没有全面商用落地，暂时产生不了稳定生态收益。目前支撑价格的还是预期故事，没有实打实持续业务流水兑现。 大盘行情走弱，CORE百分百会回头跟跌。所以各位不要老想着抄底，你想抄底项目方想抄你的家哈哈哈#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 On the Fed's side, the probability of a rate hike in September is still hovering in the 63%-74% range.
The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-3 vote—three against, advocating for rate hikes—has made the market fully aware that divisions within the committee are widening.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains at 4.6759% today, with a high interest rate environment continuing to suppress crypto asset valuations.
On the other hand, news reports say Trump media sold another 2,628 large pies, worth $165 million. This is already the seventh consecutive month of "slow selling" mode. It's not a one-time sell-off, but persistent seller pressure does add to the price.
The miners' side also reached a historic high. Mining difficulty dropped from 156 trillion in November 2025 to 126.23 trillion now, a decline of 19.9%, the third deepest drop in the ASIC era. Listed mining companies sold over 32,000 large pies in the first quarter of 2026 alone, exceeding the total for all of 2025. But miners' stock prices are actually rising—the market no longer sees miners as "miners," but as "AI infrastructure providers" pricing instead. Miners are selling, ETFs are wavering, big players are offloading, and retail investors are watching and waiting. The four forces canceled each other out around 63,000; whichever couldn't hold out first would have the price move in that direction.
If 62,000-62,200 cannot hold, it will most likely test 60,000-59,500. If you go up, 63,500-64,000 is the first hurdle. Before the direction is determined, don't overweight your positions; watching more and moving less is better than reckless movement. If 63,000 is broken, don't rush to buy in; wait until there are signs of stabilization near 62,000. $BTC #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. What the market truly fears is not inflation itself, but a chain that is breaking: the arbitrage game of using zero-interest yen to buy US Treasuries may no longer be played.
Within the first half of the year, it fell below 164, hitting a nearly 40-year low. To save the yen, Japan was forced to sell off U.S. Treasuries—spending $66.75 billion in May alone, with over $53.7 billion in single-day interventions last week. As the largest overseas creditor holding $1.21 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, if Japan continues to sell off, U.S. Treasury yields will be pushed even higher.
The U.S. has rarely intervened together, ostensibly to save the yen, but in reality, it is self-rescue. To this end, the FIMA buyback tool was used, allowing Japan to mortgage U.S. Treasuries for dollars instead of selling them outright—temporarily putting a decompression valve on the U.S. Treasury market.
But the real gray rhino is a reversal of arbitrage trading. Over the past decades, buying high-yield U.S. Treasuries with zero-interest yen has provided a steady stream of buyers. Now, with Japan raising interest rates and intensified exchange rate volatility, if arbitrage positions are closed out in concentrated fashion, it will trigger a concentrated sell-off of U.S. Treasuries and a sharp rise in yields—a shock far exceeding Japan's official sell-off.
5.27% is not necessarily the end. FIMA tools are merely a delaying measure; oil prices are still in a tug-of-war with expectations of interest rate hikes. What truly determines the fate of U.S. Treasuries is whether the yen arbitrage ship can turn back smoothly. Once out of control, the valuation anchor of global risk assets will be redefined.For the entire month of July, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $365 million, while Bitcoin ETFs only saw $172 million in during the same period.
The difference was more than double.
And this marks the fourth consecutive week of net inflows.
Last week (July 27 to 31), there was a net inflow of $27.42 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone contributing $36.62 million and ETHB contributing $21.29 million.
More importantly, on August 1st, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 265 million, while Ethereum ETFs actually saw a net inflow of 9 million. Funds are shifting from the Bitcoin ETF to the Erbing ETF, a trend that started in mid-July and has lasted nearly three weeks.
But there's one issue worth pondering—ETFs are buying, but prices are falling.
On August 1st, the Erbing ETF still bought 9 million, but the price slipped from above 1,900 all the way to 1,820.
ETF buying has yet to withstand the selling pressure from spot markets.
Some are entering through ETFs, others are selling in the spot market—both sides are opposed.
The ETF's total net asset value is now $10.23 billion, with a net asset ratio of 4.55% of Ethereum's total market capitalization.
The market is still small and hasn't dominated the price movement yet. $BTC $ETH On the morning of August 3rd, a single bullish candlestick on Erbing shot back from around 1,820 to above 1,890, rising about 2.5% in 24 hours.
Yesterday, the lowest was still around 1,825, and I made nearly 70 dollars overnight.
The biggest variable on the news side is oil prices. On the morning of August 3rd, Beijing time, international crude oil prices plunged at the open, with Brent dropping as much as 7.3% to $81.55, and WTI falling below 80. The trigger was Trump telling the media that a preliminary agreement framework had been reached with Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz was about to be fully opened. US stock futures and gold and silver surged collectively, and cryptocurrencies also rebounded accordingly. But an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson quickly came forward to deny the rumors, saying the Strait of Hormuz "will not return to its pre-conflict state." One said the deal was reached, the other was not. The market's first reaction is to follow oil prices—oil prices fall, expectations of geopolitical easing heat rise, risk assets rebound first.
But honestly, the current trend of the second bing is increasingly like a "macro news amplifier"—when oil prices fall, it rebounds; when rate hike expectations heat up, it crashes, and it has little to do with its own fundamentals. The 1,900 mark has been repeatedly tested since the end of July, and every time it goes up, it gets knocked back. 2,000 was the biggest hurdle in this rebound, and in the past two months, it hasn't even touched it.
$BTC $ETH Bitcoin just ran hard. Now the question is whether we get the usual reset.
History says big rallies are often followed by big pullbacks before the next leg up. Not identical, but painful enough to wipe leverage and reset sentiment.
Recent examples:
📉 $127K → $81K
📉 $96K → $58K
📉 $85K → $66K
If that pattern repeats, $45K–$40K could be where long-term buyers start to care. That’s not a call, just a level to watch.
What drives it from here:
US Treasury yields staying high, earnings and risk appetite, spot ETF flows, and what central banks do next.
I’m not trying to nail the exact bottom. I’m waiting for confirmation — price action, volume, structure.
Plan: stay patient, let the market pick a direction, manage risk, and I’ll post my first spot entry when it’s there.
In markets like this, keeping capital comes first.
$BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
#USJapanYenIntervention US and Japan Join Forces to "Print Money" to Maintain Stability: FIMA Tool Expansion Could Become the Hidden Winner in the Crypto Market
1. News Core
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent confirmed that last Friday, the U.S. and Japan conducted joint intervention to curb the sharp depreciation of the yen, and for the first time activated the Federal Reserve's FIMA repo mechanism—foreign central banks can use U.S. Treasuries as collateral to obtain dollar liquidity without causing turmoil by selling U.S. bonds on the open market. Becente called for expanding the size of FIMA's tools in case the yen experiences another "disorderly fluctuation."
2. FIMA Tool: The Only One, Specifically to Resolve the "U.S. Treasury Selling Panic"
FIMA is a liquidity facility established by the Federal Reserve at the beginning of the pandemic (2020), allowing foreign central banks to borrow dollars from the Fed using their U.S. Treasury holdings as collateral.
Its brilliance lies in the fact that Japan (or any country holding large amounts of U.S. Treasuries) does not need to sell U.S. Treasuries to obtain dollars when it needs to intervene in the foreign exchange market or sell yen to buy dollars. You can directly borrow money from the Federal Reserve using U.S. Treasury bonds as collateral.
As a result, the U.S. Treasury market will not experience panic selling due to the Bank of Japan's intervention—Treasury yields are stable, dollar liquidity is ample, and intervention proceeds smoothly.
By pushing to expand FIMA's scale, Bassent is essentially preparing an "unlimited overdraft card" for Japan (and other countries that may take similar actions in the future)—as long as US Treasuries remain, they can borrow dollars to stabilize their currencies without impacting the global bond market.
3. Indirect impact on the crypto market: Liquidity "release" may benefit BTC
This seemingly unrelated macro policy may have an impact on the crypto market that the market may underestimate:
1. U.S. Treasury yields fall, risk assets benefit: The essence of the FIMA tool is to reduce selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries and push down yields. As an anchor for global asset pricing, declining U.S. Treasury yields will increase the relative attractiveness of risk assets, including Bitcoin.
2. Global marginal liquidity easing: Injecting US dollar liquidity into the market using US Treasuries as collateral is essentially a form of invisible quantitative easing. Although the scale is unclear, any form of increased dollar liquidity is marginally positive for the crypto market.
3. Stable yen carry trades: If the yen fluctuates chaotically and triggers large-scale unwinding of carry trades, it could trigger a global liquidity shock. The existence of FIMA tools reduces this tail risk, providing protection for the macro environment of high-risk assets like BTC.
4. Summary
Bassent's FIMA expansion plan ostensibly defends the yen and protects U.S. Treasuries, but in reality, it is a safety net for global dollar liquidity. When overseas central banks no longer need to sell U.S. Treasuries to obtain dollar intervention in the foreign exchange market, global bond markets will become more stable, and risk appetite is expected to recover. For Bitcoin, any move to reduce pressure on the global financial system will ultimately pass on to the crypto market—though this transmission path is more circuitous and slower than direct policy benefits.
A-share investors may not directly feel the significance of FIMA, but when US Treasury yields decline and global liquidity marginally eases, BTC will feel this "policy warmth." Ironically, Becente wanted to save the yen but might have also saved Bitcoin instead. This is also the most fascinating aspect of macro narratives—policymakers can never precisely control the flow of funds; water flows downward, and the crypto market is precisely the lowest liquidity point globally.
$BTC U.S. and Japan confirm joint foreign exchange purchase intervention: First joint support for the yen in 15 years, bears facing real pressure
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama officially confirmed that the US and Japan jointly implemented a foreign exchange intervention to buy yen on July 31 Eastern Time, in response to the recent "excessive volatility and disorderly movement" of the yen.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent made a simultaneous statement, and Trump personally voiced his support. This is the first joint intervention in the foreign exchange market by the US and Japan since the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, and the first time since 1998 that the yen has been jointly supported by buying the yen.
The core of the event and the timeline
In late July, the yen briefly approached 164 yen per dollar, marking its lowest level in about 40 years. Japanese authorities first entered the market on July 30 (New York time), buying large amounts of yen and selling dollars, with market estimates ranging from 6 trillion to 8.45 trillion yen (about 50 to 60 billion USD).
The next day (July 31), the operation escalated into a joint intervention. On the US side, the New York Fed represented the Treasury by selling euros and buying yen through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The phrase "To Do: Buy Japanese Yen $5-10 bil" photographed in Becent's cabinet meeting notebook that day became direct evidence. Japan has also continued to buy yen in tandem.
Katayama made it clear in today's statement that this action is based on the September 2025 joint statement by the U.S.-Japan Treasury Ministers, in response to the recent disorderly fluctuations in the yen. She emphasized, "In the future, we will not hesitate to further jointly implement foreign exchange market interventions." Bassent stated that "coordinated foreign exchange intervention between the US and Japan has effectively curbed the disorderly fluctuations of the yen," and said the US "will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention," while strongly supporting Japan's decisive measures to correct the yen's "serious undervalue."
On Sunday, Trump said on Air Force One that this move is a "signal of friendship" between the U.S. and Japan, and also beneficial to the global economy.
After the confirmation announcement, USD/JPY strengthened further, briefly touching near 155 intraday, the strongest level since May, and having rebounded significantly from the low of nearly 164 before the intervention.
Why is it different this time?
In the past, Japan's intervention alone often had short-lived effects, with the market quickly testing the lows. This time, the US entered directly, using actual buying rather than mere verbal or inquiry signals, significantly boosting signal strength. The U.S. side's choice to sell euros rather than directly selling dollars also demonstrates operational flexibility and deep coordination.
The background is that the continued depreciation of the yen has driven up the cost of energy and food imports in Japan, increasing the burden on households and small and medium-sized enterprises, and is beginning to influence politics; At the same time, the U.S. is concerned that excessive undervaluation of the yen will offset the effects of tariff policies and may spill over into global bond markets through Japanese bond sell-offs (pushing up U.S. Treasury yields). The interest rate differential remains the core driver, but both sides have clearly made it clear that they no longer want to stand by and watch "disorderly" depreciation.
Both sides have made it clear that they will "not hesitate" to take further joint action, meaning that if the yen depreciates rapidly again, intervention could reoccur at any time. While maintaining interest rates, the Bank of Japan has signaled an early rate hike, with joint intervention further increasing the probability of a rate hike in September. #美日确认联合购汇 The 30-year Treasury yield has already reached a higher level, and 5.3% still doesn't feel like a final peak. In the short term, a pullback is possible, since after a continuous rally, the market will undergo technical recovery. However, in the medium term, yields may repeatedly challenge the 5.5% or even higher level.
Or is it because the U.S. deficit is unlikely to shrink significantly in the short term, and long-term Treasury supply will remain high. Buyers facing 30-year terms will demand higher yields to compensate for inflation, fiscal, and duration risks. Even if the Fed starts cutting rates later, short-term rates will be more likely to fall, while the long-term end will still face constraints such as the scale of bond issuance, inflation expectations, and market capacity.
In the next year or two, the 30-year yield may remain around 5%, gradually becoming the new market norm. The ultra-low interest rate environment of the past decade or so is likely gone for good. The only variables that could truly reverse this trend are a rapid U.S. economic recession, a noticeable slowdown in inflation, or substantial fiscal contraction.
At this point, stock market technology and BTC might not crash first; the first to crash is still a knockoff meme. BTC can also maintain some appeal through scarcity, fiscal credit, and institutional allocation, while most altcoins depend more on liquidity. If long-term risk-free yields remain high, it will be difficult for a comprehensive knockoff season to last, and even if it does, it is more likely to be a short-term rotation.
If U.S. Treasury yields rise, which assets would you sell first? I wouldn't dare touch knockoffs.
#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. #新手必看: Everything you need is here Fundamental Research Report $CULT / Cult DAO (Meme/Pay) $3.20
Essentially: Cult DAO ($CULT) has a comprehensive score of 51/100, with a narrative focus on implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's start with projects: Cult DAO (token $CULT), Meme/Payments track. Focusing on decentralized meme funds. Benchmarking against PEOPLE and MEME. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Let's look together with peers (unified perspective, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Cult DAO $3.00B, PEOPLE undisclosed, MEME not disclosed. Regarding FDV, Cult DAO $4.20B, PEOPLE undisclosed, MEME not disclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Cult DAO $2.00M, PEOPLE undisclosed, MEME undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Cult DAO has not disclosed, PEOPLE has not been disclosed, and MEME has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Final judgment: Solid fundamentals (rating 51/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Tracking metrics: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations exceeding 30% require reassessment.
This concludes the research report. Welcome to share your views.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitAs of August 3, 2026, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury notes has risen to 5.27%, reaching a nearly 19-year high. Since the beginning of this year, there have been 27 trading days above 5%, maintaining above 5% for 12 consecutive trading days, marking the longest cycle above 5% since the 2007 financial crisis.
Currently, the divergence between bulls and bears is sharp. Below, we will outline the core logic from two directions.
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1. Reasons for supporting the "peak."
1. Financial conditions have been substantially tightened
The real yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has reached 3.0%, the first time since 2002 and the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. Invesco believes that the bond market has replaced the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy, which may curb further interest rate increases.
2. Some economic data shows signs of softening
The PCE price index in June fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly negative growth since 2020; Core PCE year-on-year growth slightly declined from 3.4% to 3.3%. If inflation continues to cool, the upward momentum of long-term yields will weaken.
3. Geopolitics may take a breather
Guosheng Securities pointed out, "Trump's renewed TACO is expected to provide breathing room for U.S. Treasuries, and there may be short-term swing opportunities."
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2. Reasons for supporting "New Starting Point."
1. Explosive Structural Capital Demand (Core Variable)
Goldman Sachs believes the world is transitioning from an "era of excess savings" to an "era of extreme capital scarcity"—AI infrastructure, reindustrialization, defense restructuring, and sovereign debt financing demand are all erupting simultaneously, with multiple capital demand curves rising simultaneously. Goldman Sachs made it clear: "Don't expect this breakout to reverse quickly," and the Fed "is more of a passenger than a driver."
2. The Federal Reserve's credibility has been damaged, and policy uncertainty has intensified
After the July FOMC meeting, new Chairman Wash refused to outline specific plans to curb inflation and abandoned forward-looking guidance, causing market uncertainty about the policy path to rise sharply. Investors have begun to sell off long-term bonds frantically, and the yield curve has sharply steepened—a direct signal of the market's loss of confidence in the Fed's fight against inflation.
3. Continued pressure on the supply side
The U.S. government's fiscal situation continues to deteriorate, with the U.S. debt market soaring from $4.5 trillion in 2007 to $31 trillion, and public debt as a percentage of GDP exceeding 100%. Meanwhile, companies issued large-scale bonds for AI infrastructure, further pushing up long-term interest rates.
4. Options market bets continue to rise
Traders bought large amounts of options, betting that the 30-year yield would break through 5.4%, close to the mid-2007 peak.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
Trader's Perspective | "5% is not a top, it's a new pivot"
30Y US Treasury 5.27%: Stop treating this place as a 'top-tier pick.'
For the past decade, you've been used to "bottom-fishing whenever US Treasury yields rise to 5%," but 2026 is different:
In May, the 30Y was auctioned at 5.046%, marking the first time since 2007 that newly issued 30-year long-term bonds carried a 5% coupon; July and August broke previous highs again, and today it jumped straight to 5.27%.
JPMorgan Chase has just raised its 30Y target by the end of 2026 from 5.20% to 5.40%, and has moved up its forecast for the Fed's next rate hike from the second half of 2027 to December this year.
Hoisington—the long-standing institution that has viewed long bonds for decades—abandoned its long bond position this month, citing a shift in the structural background of "fiscal deficit + capital demand."
This round of long-term rally is not solely driven by the Fed; the term premium is being revalued:
Federal debt is nearly $39 trillion, with a deficit of about $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and interest expenses exceeding $1 trillion; AI giants (Microsoft/Amazon/Alphabet/Nvidia/Meta/Oracle) have nearly $500 billion in outstanding debt, competing with the Treasury for the same batch of long-term funds. Goldman Sachs put it even more harshly—this is the "largest capital demand cycle in human history," and the Fed is just a passenger, not a driver.
So my judgment (just personal):
The 5% price has already shifted from the "resistance level" to the "new center," and the 30-year range is holding sideways between 5.2% and 5.5%, which fits better with this round of pricing logic than a return to the 40-point range. In the short term, if there is a pullback caused by US-Iran easing or a collapse in the nonfarm payrolls, it will be a swing, not a reversal.
If it's long, don't force it. Before 5.4%, I don't accept the "top."
Non-trading advice: long-term bond drawdowns also start at 20+, don't just look at coupon yields. The secret behind Bitcoin's "buying the wall": The bottom-fishing army is on high alert at $50,000
1. Data core
Analyst "AntiFragile" pointed out on the X platform that there are many passive buy orders in the BTC order book within the 2%-20% range below the current price. Based on the current value of about $63,000, the order range for this batch of "patient capital" is roughly as follows:
· -2% zone: about $61,740 (the first line of defense recently)
· -20% zone: about $50,400 (ultimate bottom-fishing zone)
The key point is: these buy orders have been laid out since early June, representing "passive buying demand" with early placements, rather than aggressive chasing gains.
2. Dramatic Interpretation: Buyers Are "Waiting for a Drop," Not "Afraid of a Rise"
The essence of this analysis is — the current price of $63,000 is outside the target range of these large funds. They would rather place orders at lower levels like $61,700 or even $50,400 rather than chase high at $63,000.
What does this mean? The market lacks FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment. Buyers feel the current prices are "not cheap" and would rather risk missing out on fishing orders than actively take orders to pull the market. This is an extremely restrained bullish signal—someone wants to buy but wants to wait for a discount before buying.
3. Analysis of the Two Major Support Zones
First layer of defense ($61,700-$62,800): corresponds to a 2%-5% pullback range. If BTC falls below $62,000, these orders will provide a buffer and slow the decline. However, these orders are more about "bottom-holding" rather than "pulling the market," which can only reduce volatility and are insufficient to drive a reversal.
Second layer of defense (around $50,400): This is the real "whale interest zone." If BTC really falls to around $50,000, it will trigger a large amount of passive buying interest. Combined with the key psychological level previously mentioned by analysts at $60,000-61,000, $50,400 can be seen as the "extreme value zone" for this round of correction.
4. Mapping with the current market environment
Combining this order structure with recent events:
1. Coldcard theft incident (nearly $90 million BTC stolen): confidence in self-custody was shaken, and some funds may shift to exchanges or ETFs. In theory, this increases selling pressure, but the order book shows there are buyers below.
2. The "AI trust crisis" during tech earnings season: Google and Meta were sold off due to excessive capital expenditures, reducing risk appetite. If BTC follows the US stock pullback, orders at 61,700 and 50,400 will take effect in sequence.
3. Political and Economic Turmoil in South Korea: Presidential approval ratings have plummeted, and the stock market has plunged, potentially triggering crypto sell-offs by retail investors. But the "passive buying" shown in the order book is precisely the "reverse chip" used to counter this panic selling.
5. Summary
Bitcoin is currently in a stalemate where "buyers are staking at the bottom, while sellers are accumulating above."
This batch of passive buy orders, which has existed since June, has drawn a clear bottom hunting zone for the market—$61,700 is the first speed bump, while $50,400 is seen as the "golden pit" by long-term investors. For short-term traders, this order structure means a high risk of chasing highs, because large funds clearly state "I only buy when there's a discount." For spot holders, the dense buy orders below $50,400-61,700 are a "hard bottom" signal for this round of bear market correction—provided these orders are not suddenly canceled. After all, in the crypto market, liquidity is like quicksand—disappearing in an instant.
$BTC There is a problem with the Ethereum market; it's very unusual.
Even the entry of whales can't heat up the market; it's still very quiet, and the trading volume is still halved. There is news of a certain whale address reducing its position by 3,500 ETH after two years. Arthur Haye bought $2.5 million worth of ETH, and another $2.5 million transaction is pending. Not to mention the whale transfers of Ethereum currency. Ethereum spot has had net inflows for four consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of $27.42 million last week. I noticed that the proportion of bullish accounts has decreased compared to yesterday.
Ethereum $ETH had liquidations worth $32.78 million in 24 hours, with long liquidations at $17.37 million and short liquidations at $15.41 million. The largest single liquidation was $1.91 million. The market liquidation status is normal. Today's ETH price fluctuated over 2.69%. Globally, 2,476 people were liquidated, and the liquidation amount is relatively low compared to the seven-day average.
$ETH data shows the market is currently sluggish, which is a period of accumulation. Coupled with the vulnerability incident, the situation has worsened. In the past two days, there has been considerable selling of ETH in perpetual contracts, and the open interest has declined for two consecutive days. I estimate that if the vulnerability incident is not fully resolved, the market will remain sluggish.
#机构逆势加仓：SharpLink增持近4万枚ETH #以太坊主网十一周年：十一年不间断运行与生态成就 #ETH再现链上安全事件 $ETH #30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #KoreaChipSelloff Macro strategy: a "reverse harvest" window amid geopolitical competition
Currently, the market is in a typical geopolitical sensitive period, with wide fluctuations dominated by news being the norm.
Core tactical logic:
The market's extreme remarks about the "blond" (Trump) have formed muscle memory. Its "threat to launch" triggered panic selling, followed by a "sudden halt," triggering a violent rebound in risk assets. This scenario has been repeatedly played out in this round of Middle East tensions.
· Trading framework: During panic sell-offs, buy long positions in risk assets like BTC and ETH on dips; At the same time, short-term short selling of crude oil is most sensitive to geopolitical premiums, and news of a ceasefire will directly squeeze its price bubble.
· Current status: The U.S. has paused a new round of strikes against Iran, opening the negotiation window, but navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed. Iran only claims it is "close to reaching an agreement," and the situation still has the potential for a rapid reversal. This means the reversal in news will outpace the recovery of fundamentals, so you can only lie in wait on the left side, avoiding chasing gains and selling losses.
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Ethereum (ETH): A Life-or-Death Battle Behind Key Defenses
ETH is currently at an absolute technical node, with bulls hanging by a thread.
· Bull-Bear Divide: $1930 is the validation level for the medium-term bullish trend. If it cannot be effectively recovered, the strength of the rebound is questionable.
· Downside risk: If $1830 is breached, it will trigger programmatic selling, and the $1800 integer level will be tested again.
· Position Caution: Your strong flat line is at $1802. Currently, the floating loss is 2521 USD. This level is not a battle between bulls and bears, but rather a battle for liquidity with the main funds. It is recommended to closely monitor volume changes in the 1830-1800 range and protect positions well.
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BEAT: A direct confrontation between destroying narratives and unlocking stress
BEAT's recent volatility has surged sharply, with the price hitting a low of 3.28, indicating fragile market sentiment.
· Bottom confirmation: $3.09 is the last line of defense; if it falls below it, there is a risk of returning to the "2-something" range.
· Reversal signal: Only a strong breakout above $4 would confirm that the panic selling has temporarily ended.
· Core Contradiction: A new unlocking cycle will occur on August 1, accounting for about 6.9% of total market value, putting pressure on the supply side. Although the project team maintains the narrative of buyback and burn, the current new circulation pressure is testing market support, and the battle between "burn" and "unlock" has reached a fever pitch.
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SNDK: The pre-performance rush and resistance battle
SNDK has experienced abnormal technical volatility, with funds clearly positioning ahead of the earnings release.
· Key support: $1200 is the primary level to watch; in extreme cases, $1189.
· Rebound path: First rebound target is 1280, strong resistance at 1350; The area around 1400 remains a strong medium-term selling pressure zone.
· Event-driven: August 5 earnings report, August 13 investor day. Market expectations are not only for earnings to beat forecasts, but more importantly, the need to raise future guidance. If the results are only "in line with expectations," one must guard against classic scenarios where "good news is realized, major players distribute."
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Macroeconomic Linkage Supplement (Risk Warning)
1. 30-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a 19-year high — The valuation anchor of global risk assets is moving upward, systematically suppressing high-valuation assets.
2. SPCX's first earnings report and $100 billion unlocking — caution is needed regarding the siphoning effect on market liquidity and possibly intensifying local volatility.
Summary: In a news market, emotions fuel emotions, and positions are the enemy of positions. Strictly observe discipline and buy low and sell high—this is more important than predicting direction. Currently, your ETH holdings are in the high-risk zone, so it is recommended to prioritize risk exposure.Q2 2026 Technology and Crypto Earnings Season Analysis: The "Trust Crisis" of AI Capital Spending
1. Five Tech Giants: AI Infrastructure Frenzy, Free Cash Flow 'Swimming Naked'
In July 2026, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple will all release their earnings reports. Revenue and profit have almost all exceeded expectations, but the market no longer pays for the "AI story," and capital expenditure guidance has become the core variable influencing stock prices.
Google: Q2 revenue of $119.796 billion (+24% year-on-year), Google Cloud surged 82%. However, capital expenditure was $44.92 billion (doubling year-on-year), and the full-year guidance was raised to $195–205 billion, resulting in the first quarterly negative free cash flow since listing (-$5.86 billion). The next day, the financial report briefly fell more than 7%.
Intel: Q2 revenue of $16.128 billion (+25% year-on-year, strongest growth in fifteen years). After hours, the stock surged over 13%, but the market quickly shifted to concerns over capital expenditure being raised above $20 billion, giving back gains and even falling more than 7%.
Microsoft: Azure annualized revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time (Q4 revenue $90 billion, +18% year-on-year). The key lies in proactively lowering its 2026 calendar year capital expenditure forecast to $175 billion and committing to positive free cash flow. It surged in after-hours trading, with the next day posting its best single-day performance in 18 years.
Meta: Q2 revenue of $60.8 billion (+28% year-on-year), but capital expenditure of $31.08 billion left free cash flow at only $784 million (shrinking over 90% year-on-year). For two consecutive quarters, it was sold off due to increased capital expenditures, resulting in a cumulative drop of nearly 10%.
Apple: Q3 revenue was $109.42 billion (+16% year-on-year), net profit $29.79 billion (+27% year-on-year), both record highs for the same period. However, it lowered its Q4 guidance (year-on-year +9%-11%, below the expected 12.1%) and warned that the impact of the chip shortage is expanding. Its market value evaporated by over $300 billion in a single day.
2. SK Hynix: The Most Profitable Quarter in History, Still "Below Expectations"
SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79 trillion KRW and operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge but below market expectations (expected revenue of 84 trillion KRW and operating profit of 64.22 trillion KRW). The root cause lies in excessive reliance on HBM, which is constrained by long-term contract prices and has not fully benefited from the price increases of traditional DRAM. After the earnings report was released, ADRs plunged more than 8% in after-hours trading, triggering a broad plunge in the storage sector—SanDisk fell 14.25%, Micron dropped 8.85%.
3. Robinhood: Prediction Market Summit, "Super Financial App" Takes Shape
Robinhood's Q2 revenue was $1.31 billion (+32% year-on-year), net profit $573 million (+48% year-on-year), and earnings per share of $0.62 far exceeded the expected $0.41.
The most iconic change: Forecast market (event contracts) revenue was $156 million, surpassing cryptocurrency ($100 million, down 38% year-on-year) and stock trading revenue for the first time. Thirteen business lines had annualized revenue exceeding 100 million USD. Platform assets reached $369 billion (+32% year-on-year), Gold subscribers reached 4.84 million (+39% year-on-year), and net deposits hit a record $21.7 billion.
4. Strategy (MSTR): The "Capital Flywheel" Recovery Battle After STRC Depeged
Strategy Q2 revenue was $122 million (+6.9% year-on-year), but it recorded a net loss of $8.22 billion (digital asset unrealized losses of $8.32 billion) due to the decline in Bitcoin prices. As of the end of Q2, it held 843,775 BTC (+11% quarter-on-quarter), with an average cost of about $75,000 per coin.
The core crisis lies in the ongoing depegging of the financing instrument STRC (once falling to $74.57, currently $89.5, target $100). The company announced a transformation to "active capital management": no longer using one-way financing to buy coins, but instead managing liquidity through cash reserves, preferred shares, common shares, and BTC monetization plans. As of July 26, approximately $218.4 million worth of BTC has been sold through a monetization plan. The CEO made it clear: before STRC returns to par value, no shares will be issued at a discount.
5. Coinbase: Valuation Divergence Between Cyclical Stocks and Growth Stocks
Coinbase's Q2 total revenue was $1.22 billion (down 19% year-on-year, -14% quarter-on-quarter), below the expected $1.29 billion; trading revenue was $599 million, below the expected $628 million; and net loss was $359 million, marking three consecutive quarters of losses.
Crypto spot trading continues to shrink: retail trading revenue was $452 million (down 30% year-on-year, -20% quarter-on-quarter), falling back to 2023 levels. Market share rose to 10.3%, mostly "word games"—new businesses like derivatives and prediction markets were included, and the share of crypto spot was actually shrinking.
Transformation Highlights: Stablecoin revenue of $292 million was the second largest source of income; subscription and service revenue was $555 million, accounting for 48% of net income, roughly on par with trading revenue; Bet on the on-chain proxy economy (AIFi), with over 99% of on-chain proxy transactions using USDC and over 90% completed on Base. The company estimates that by 2030, the scale of agency deals will reach $3 to 5 trillion.
6. Summary: The Crossroads of AI Faith
The core narrative of the Q2 2026 earnings season can be summarized as: AI demand remains strong, but the market no longer endlessly pays for "burning cash." Microsoft surged on expectations of "cutting spending," Meta plunged because it "expanded" spending—the same AI story, but with completely different pricing. SK Hynix's "strongest quarter ever" was sold off due to underperformance, further confirming the market's extreme pickiness of the AI hardware cycle.
In the crypto world, Strategy is undergoing a difficult transformation from "one-way coin buying" to "active management"; Coinbase stands at the crossroads of valuation between cyclical and growth stocks—if considered cyclical, losses in a bear market are unacceptable; If seen as growth stocks, only stablecoins and AIFi's long-term stories carry a valuation premium. Robinhood's forecast of market revenue surpassing cryptocurrencies signals a deeper trend: the very nature of "trading" is being redefined.Storage chips experienced a "black July," leading stocks were cut in half, and the market focused on SanDisk's financial report
In July 2026, the global memory chip sector faced a historic sell-off. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged nearly 30% in a single month, and the Roundhill Storage ETF (DRAM) dropped nearly 32%. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have pulled back about 41%-48% from their highs, Kioxia's ADR dropped as much as 53% in July, and SanDisk (SNDK) has dropped over 46%. SanDisk's stock price has sharply retreated from its June all-time high of $2,354, once falling to the $1,000 mark, down 57% from its peak.
Fundamentals and stock prices have diverged significantly
While stock prices have plummeted, the fundamentals of storage companies are at their best in history. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue grew 257% year-on-year, with operating profit soaring 557%; Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit soared 18 times year-on-year. The market no longer values based on current profits but has begun to question the sustainability of AI hardware profitability.
SanDisk's financial report became a key catalyst
SanDisk will release its Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2026 after the market closed on August 5 (this Wednesday). The market expects revenue to be around $8.39 billion, a year-on-year surge of 341%, with earnings per share of approximately $33-34.5. Previously, Q3 revenue was 5.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 251%, with a gross margin as high as 78%. Analysts have raised SanDisk's EPS 34 times in the past three months.
The AI hardware bubble controversy has flared up again
The core driver of this round of plunge is doubts about the return on AI infrastructure investment. Hedge fund Situational Awareness was liquidated due to heavy positions in AI hardware stocks (including SanDisk), causing its assets to shrink from $4.5 billion to about $10 billion, triggering a chain sell-off. However, NAND supply constraints have been confirmed, and the price increase dividends are expected to continue into 2027.
Other important events this week
SpaceX will release its first earnings report since listing on August 5, with a massive unlocking volume of 911.5 million shares set to be unlocked on August 6. AMD's earnings report on the same day will serve as a barometer for AI chip demand.
The storage sector is caught in an extreme split between "historic performance vs. historic sell-off." SanDisk's financial report will be a key factor in verifying the strength of AI storage demand.
#SNDK #闪迪 #存储芯片 #财报季 #AI硬件 #半导体
$RAVE Those who play high leverage don't die from direction, but from the rates.
When funding rates start to spiral out of control, overheated contracts are playing the game of passing the drum and passing the flower—whoever takes the last baton pays the bill.
In a high-volatility market, liquidation doesn't care what your logic is. $BTC, $ETH, $BNB, $SOL, $XRP big pools can hold their own, but mid-tier coins and high-beta altcoins are always taken away in one wave. $SUI, $APT, $SEI, $NEAR, $AVAX, $ADA, $DOT—every time OI overheats, the result is the same.
Chasing momentum and chasing liquidity is riskier. $TAO, $FET, $RNDR, $AKT, $DATA, $WLD, $SENT, $NEX, $AGIX, $OCEAN, $AIOZ AI and infrastructure projects often fill up long positions before selling; $UNI, $AAVE, $MKR, $PENDLE, $RE, $KAITO DeFi are the same. Once leverage hits, before spot buying even appears, prices crash first.
Memes and high-beta varieties are the fastest to liquidate. $PEPE, $WIF, $BONK, $FLOKI, $POPCAT, $MEW, $MEME, $CHIP, $JELLYJELLY, $YALA, $FIGHT, $ROBO—dropping 20% in just a few minutes is normal. Only after clearing leverage do you start looking for new direction.
As for $ARB, $OP, $MATIC, $FIL, $EOS, $SAND, $ALGO, $LTC, $TRX, $TON, $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $MEGA, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $ BSB, $ALLO, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS, $GEOD, $GRVT, $OMNI, $MF, $NIGHT, $OPN, $WMTX, $LSSOL, $HYPE, $ZEC, $SNDK—these low-liquidity stocks are forcibly liquidated, and once forced liquidations occur, even counterparties cannot be found.
$RAVE This wave is the same principle. Where high leverage is piled up, only after liquidation will new directions emerge.
When doing contracts, keep an eye on OI, track funding rates, and manage margin well. High leverage can turn a good trading opportunity into a forced liquidation notice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Crypto #Trading #Leverage #清算风险 #合约交易Prediction Market Soars to $50.6 Billion: A Gambler's Feast or a Prophet of Public Opinion?
1. Data core
In July 2026, the combined trading volume of the three major prediction market platforms—Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Kalshi—reached a record high of $50.6 billion. Among them:
· Polymarket US (US Compliant Edition): Trading volume surged 54% to $5 billion
· Polymarket (International Edition): Trading volume fell 26% to $7.9 billion
2. Dramatic Interpretation: While Americans Gamble Wildly, Global Players Have Actually "Calmed Down"?
The most interesting part of this data is the split—the US version surged 54%, while the international version plunged 26%. In plain language: Americans are betting wildly, while the whole world is watching the show.
Why? Because 2026 is the U.S. midterm election year, combined with major events like the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, Middle East affairs, and even the Trump lawsuit, Americans treat the prediction market as a combination of real-time polling + casinos. The total volume of $50.6 billion has already surpassed the GDP of many small countries and is also more than one-tenth of the average daily trading volume of the global cryptocurrency market.
Meanwhile, the international Polymarket's trading volume dropped by 26%, indicating that non-US users' interest in betting on global events is declining—or rather, they are shifting their money to the US version, where the "gambling" is more exciting and more liquid.
3. Three metaphors for the crypto market
1. Prediction Market = The "Application Layer Killer" of Cryptocurrency: $50.6 billion in trading volume proves that blockchain + prediction market is a real demand, not a false proposition. Most of these transactions are settled in USDC, indicating a significant expansion in the actual use cases for stablecoins.
2. Sentiment Leading Indicator: Predicting market odds is often more sensitive than polls. If the probability of a "Fed rate hike in September" on the platform soars above 70%, the crypto market is very likely to react early.
3. Regulatory Dividends: After compliant operations in the US version of Polymarket US, trading volume surged by 54%, indicating that regulatory clarity has actually promoted market prosperity, providing a reference template for other crypto tracks.
4. Summary
$50.6 billion is both a futures market of public opinion and a magnifying glass of sentiment. Americans are betting real money on the future, while the crypto world reads the direction of interest rates, wars, and elections from this. The drama is: the busier the casino, the more uncertain reality becomes. When the prediction market's trading volume hits a historic high, it precisely indicates that the world is in a state of historic chaos. For Bitcoin, this chaos is both a risk and an opportunity. US-Japan Collusion: Protecting the Wallet, Short-Term Relief for the Yen, Long-Term Depends on Interest Rate Differentials
The battle to defend the yen has officially escalated. On July 31, the US and Japan jointly purchased yen, marking the first coordinated support for the yen since 1998. USD/JPY quickly dropped from above 163 to 155.20, significantly increasing the tail risk of shorting the yen.
Three key points to watch:
① Signal Over Firepower
Japan’s intervention scale is estimated at about 14–15 trillion yen in two rounds, but the exact amount has not been disclosed; the Japanese Ministry of Finance will only release monthly data covering after July 30 on August 28.
② Intervention Changes the Slope, Interest Rate Differentials Determine the Trend
The US side’s involvement greatly enhances policy deterrence, but if the US-Japan interest rate differential does not narrow, the BOJ’s tightening is insufficient, and oil prices continue to rise, the yen may weaken again. Sustained reversal requires “intervention + interest rate differential + energy” to align.
③ Asset Transmission
In the short term, forex is biased toward the yen; 150–155 is the core battleground zone, and regaining above 160 means the intervention effect is fading; Japanese stocks, especially export sectors, are under pressure, while domestic demand, imports, and financial sectors are relatively favored; Japanese bond yields face upward pressure, while US Treasuries are pulled between safe-haven buying and Japan’s adjustment of dollar assets.
In short: intervention determines the short-term direction, interest rate differentials determine the trend’s lifespan.
Historical annual average exchange rates use Federal Reserve/FRED data; 2025 is 149.57, 2026 is a YTD estimate.
#美日确认联合购汇 #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ $BTC South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating plummets: Stock market "takes the blame," crypto market falls victim?
1. News Core
According to a Yonhap News poll on August 3, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's positive approval rating dropped to 45.9% (down for three consecutive weeks), while negative ratings surpassed 50.5% for the first time, marking the lowest level since taking office. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) has risen to 45.1%, while the largest opposition party, People Power Party, has dropped to 37.7%.
2. Dramatic Interpretation: A Bearish Candlestick in the Stock Market, Presidential Approval Rating 'Breaks Down'
South Korea's composite index has recently plunged continuously, leaving retail investors in distress. The voters' sentiment is simple: "You manage the economy, I lose money, so I'll give you a bad review." Lee Jae-myung's approval rating has fallen almost in sync with KOSPI's trend, earning the nickname "political death cross"—negative evaluations have exceeded half for the first time, meaning one in every two Koreans shakes their head at the president. The director of this political tragedy was not the opposition party, but the stock market crash.
Even more interestingly, the ruling party's approval rating actually rose by 3.8 percentage points, indicating that die-hard supporters "loyally defended the market" during the crisis, while centrist voters have largely defected. The president's approval rating is just like Korea's KOSDAQ index—it falls irrationally, and a rebound is nowhere to be seen.
3. Potential ripples for the crypto market
South Korea is one of the most active cryptocurrency markets globally, and the "kimchi premium" has long been a barometer of sentiment. The sharp drop in presidential approval ratings combined with the stock market plunge could have three impacts:
1. Sentiment Transmission: Retail investors' confidence is eroded, and in the short term, they may withdraw from high-risk crypto assets and turn to cash or gold for safe havens.
2. Policy Risks: To win back public opinion, the Lee Jae-myung administration may intensify regulation of financial markets, including compliance requirements for crypto exchanges, and even resurface rumors of tax increases.
3. Premium Volatility: If depreciation pressure on the Korean won increases, Bitcoin's premium in the Korean market may expand again, but panic selling could instantly erase the premium.
In short: a presidential approval rating falling below 50% is not the end of the world, but if South Korean retail investors start selling Bitcoin, that would be real "political selling pressure." Dramatically, Lee Jae-myung's political career was now intertwined with the candlestick chart.
$BTC $SKHYNIX I lean toward the judgment that the 30-year US Treasury yield around 5.3% looks more like a top range rather than a new starting point.
Many people, upon seeing JPMorgan raise the 30-year target to 5.40%, immediately think that rates will continue to rise and risk assets will keep falling. But I believe the market is not really trading on forecasts, but on whether the variables affecting rates in the coming months have changed.
What I've been most focused on these days is not the US Treasury but oil prices. After the easing of US-Iran tensions, oil prices dropped more than 7% in one day. If oil prices continue to fall, it means the biggest variable driving the inflation rebound in recent months is weakening, and the market's expectations for further rate hikes could be revised.
Of course, I am not bearish on US Treasury yields turning down immediately, nor do I think there will definitely be a rate cut in September. I just feel that continuing to push above 5.3% requires new inflation catalysts, not just sentiment-driven moves. If upcoming data does not continue to exceed expectations, the room for US Treasury yields to rise further may not be as large as the market imagines.
This is also why I have not significantly reduced my crypto holdings just because yields hit new highs. I will control my position size but will not overturn my trading plan based on a single rate news. What truly determines the market direction is whether liquidity continues to tighten, not whether yields rise a few basis points in a day.
Many people focus on the 30-year US Treasury, but they are actually watching market valuation. What I care more about is whether there is any new reason for yields to keep rising beyond 5.3%. If not, this looks more like pricing in the last wave of pessimism rather than a new beginning.
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ Analysis of the Impact of the Coldcard Hardware Wallet Vulnerability Incident (August 3, 2026)
1. Overview of the Incident
Coldcard is a Bitcoin hardware wallet produced by Canada's Coinkite, long regarded by the community as one of the safest "cold storage" solutions. Starting July 30, the attacker wiped out 1,196 Bitcoin addresses within 41 minutes, stealing 1,082.65 BTC (about $70.2 million). As of August 3, over 4,585 addresses have been affected, with a total of 1,367.05 BTC (about $88.6 million) stolen.
2. Source of the vulnerability: A line of code error from five years ago
The vulnerability dates back to a firmware integration error in March 2021. The normal process should use the STM32 chip's hardware random number generator (RNG) to generate a 128-bit entropy value (theoretically impossible to brute-force). However, due to a configuration error, the device automatically switched to the software backup generator, resulting in:
· Mk3 model: actual entropy is only about 40 bits
· Mk4/Mk5/Q models: approximately 72 bits
Attackers only need to know the device UID, startup time, and RNG call history to rebuild the private key offline. Victims' assets were dormant for an average of 3.18 years before being stolen.
3. Impact on the market
1. Limited direct impact on Bitcoin's price
Bitcoin prices have not seen a significant decline and remain stable above $63,000. There is currently no evidence that this event has had a quantifiable negative impact on BTC prices.
2. Impact on the "self-custody" trust system
The core impact of this incident is shaking the very foundation of hardware wallets as "the safest." The victim strictly followed cold storage security protocols—the device was never connected to the internet, stored in a bank safe, but it was still stolen. This event has been described as a rare reversal of the "not your keys, not your coins" philosophy—users instead transferred their Bitcoin back to centralized exchanges for security reasons.
3. The alternative value of spot Bitcoin ETFs is being revalued
Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, pointed out that this incident may further highlight the alternative value of regulated spot Bitcoin ETFs. By allocating Bitcoin through ETFs, investors do not have to directly bear technical risks such as software defects. Balchunas also questioned whether Coinkite, with only about five employees, could shoulder such a significant security responsibility.
4. Abnormal activity in on-chain data
On July 31, Bitcoin's daily active addresses surged from 645,000 to nearly 1 million, marking the highest level since December 2024. Small transfers under 1 BTC reached 39,600 BTC, the highest single-day level since the FTX collapse.
5. Social sentiment has fallen to historic lows
This attack targeted devices marketed as "airgap isolation and self-custody," causing Bitcoin's social sentiment to drop to historic lows. Anthony Pompliano clarified that the problem lies with third-party products, not with the Bitcoin protocol or network being compromised.
4. Official response and subsequent risks
Coldcard has destroyed all remaining inventory containing the firmware vulnerability and suspended shipments. An emergency firmware patch has been released, but updating firmware alone cannot fix the old seed that has been generated; users must create new wallets and transfer funds. The head of Galaxy research warned that the attack is still ongoing, and every single-signature Coldcard address created after March 2021 could eventually be wiped out.
5. Summary
The Coldcard vulnerability is the largest Bitcoin theft incident so far in 2026. Its direct price shock to the market is limited, but it has had profound implications for self-custody trust systems, investor behavior patterns, and the narrative of Bitcoin ETFs. In the short term, attention should be paid to: (1) whether there is a fourth wave of attacks or even more; (2) Whether there are still unidentified victims among the 4,585 affected addresses; (3) Whether this incident will trigger stricter regulatory scrutiny of the hardware wallet industry. #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? $BTC When the "unbreakable" cold wallet is cleared within 41 minutes
If you also hold Bitcoin, you probably won't sleep well these days.
In the early hours of July 30, a hacker stole 1,082 bitcoins from 1,196 Coldcard hardware wallets within 41 minutes. As of August 3, the attack had spread into its fourth wave, affecting over 4,585 addresses and stealing 1,367 bitcoins, worth nearly $89 million.
Even more unsettling—the hackers never touched a single device.
The root cause of the vulnerability dates back to a firmware version released by Coldcard in March 2021. That version quietly replaced the random source from the chip hardware random number generator to a predictable software pseudo-random number generator when generating wallet mnemonic phrases. The result was: the private key, which should have had 128 random bits, actually only had 40 bits—the number of candidate combinations plummeted from astronomical to 4 billion. Brute-force attacks can be achieved using GPU clusters.
You don't even need to touch your wallet. Hackers only need to generate all possible mnemonic phrases offline, derive addresses, and compare them with the publicly available Bitcoin UTXO dataset—whose wallet is exposed, making it clear at a glance.
This isn't like some newbie losing their private key. This is the hardware wallet manufacturer's own code, betraying the user.
Coinkite's CEO issued a public apology, saying the team was "heartbroken." But heartbreak cannot recover the $89 million that has already been transferred.
What truly deserves concern is the market's reaction. After the attack, the volume of transfers less than 1 Bitcoin per transaction soared to the highest level since the FTX collapse in 2022—39,600 Bitcoins were urgently transferred in a single day. A large number of retail investors are doing the same thing: moving Bitcoin from cold wallets back to centralized exchanges.
Ironic? We spent over a decade educating everyone "Not your keys, not your coins," but a firmware vulnerability destroyed all trust completely. People would rather trust the exchange's insurance and risk control than trust the phrase "you control your own private keys."
Coldcard was once regarded as the gold standard for Bitcoin cold storage. If even it can have such issues, what about other hardware wallets? What about those closed-source solutions without public code? How do we know that the device in our hands isn't hiding another 'March 2021' ticking time bomb?
The harsh lesson from this incident is: self-hosted security is built on an assumption you can never verify yourself—the manufacturer's firmware is bug-free. And that assumption has been completely shattered today.
Bitcoin's self-custody spirit is not wrong. But this $89 million lesson reminds us: before trusting code, ask yourself—do you really know what that code is doing?Fundamental Research Report $BONK / Bonk (Meme/Pay) $3.20
To get straight to the point: Bonk ($BONK) has an overall score of 50/100, with a rating that narrative is more important than realization. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Bonk (token $BONK), Meme/Payments track. Focusing on Solana Meme Dogs. Benchmarked against WIF and PEPE. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Looking at it together with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Bonk $3.00B, WIF not disclosed, PEPE not disclosed. For FDV, Bonk $4.20B, WIF undisclosed, PEPE undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Bonk $2.00M, WIF undisclosed, PEPE undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Bonk has not disclosed this, WIF has not disclosed, PEPE has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Finally, a qualitative note: solid fundamentals (score 50/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risks to watch for: short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations exceeding 30% require reassessment.
That's all for the fundamentals; leave the rest to the market.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitLet's start with the conclusion. The joint U.S. and Japan buying yen is not good news for investors. For Japan, it may be a firefight; for global risk assets, it may not be good news. It does not mean the Federal Reserve is easing liquidity. Nor is it some "Plaza Accord 2.0." The most important short-term warning is that yen arbitrage trading is starting to retreat. BTC and Nasdaq will both come under pressure.
What exactly have the US and Japan done? On August 3, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed that Japan and the US have jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market. More precisely, both countries are buying yen together. Japan hopes to push the yen higher. The U.S. Treasury Department also participated in the operation. Previously, the US dollar against the Japanese yen briefly broke above 163, reaching a nearly 40-year high. After joint intervention, the dollar fell below 160 against the yen. After the news was officially confirmed, it once again fell to around 156.34. The lower the USD/JPY figure, the stronger the yen is. The Associated Press reported that this operation was not a last-minute slap. In September 2025, the U.S. and Japanese Treasury Ministers have already issued a joint statement. At that time, both parties agreed that if the exchange rate experienced excessive fluctuations or disorderly movements, intervention could be considered. But intervention cannot be used to gain a competitive advantage in trade. Joint statement by the U.S.-Japan finance ministers: Both Japan's Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Treasury Department stated that if the yen experiences another disorderly decline, they do not rule out continuing to act. The exact scale of the intervention has not yet been fully disclosed. The online claim that the U.S. bought 5 to 10 billion yen mainly comes from work notes captured by the media, not an official statistic. Japan's Ministry of Finance plans to announce on August 28#美日确认联合购汇
🚨 Confirmed by it! The US and Japan joined forces to bottom-fish the yen, a first in 28 years
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama officially announced this morning: Last Friday, Japan and the United States have joined forces to buy yen in the foreign exchange market.
This is not a rumor, not speculation; it is the simultaneous stamping by the finance ministries of both countries.
Trump also personally admitted on Air Force One, saying that the U.S. helping Japan boost the yen "is both a reflection of friendship and beneficial to the world economy." After saying this, he added, "Japan has always treated us well, except for the Pearl Harbor incident."
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent was even more aggressive, stating bluntly, "We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention." Japan also declared: "We will not hesitate to further cooperate in implementing foreign exchange market interventions in the future."
This is the first joint intervention in 15 years since 2011, and the first joint purchase of yen in 28 years since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. The scale of this intervention could reach as high as $58.97 billion in a single day, July 30.
Last week, the yen briefly approached 164, hitting its lowest level in nearly 40 years. After the intervention, the yen directly pushed to the 156 range. This morning, it even surged to around 155.5.
📌 What does this mean?
1. The United States has stepped in personally—previously, Japan spent 11 trillion yen alone without stopping depreciation. This time, the U.S. Treasury directly instructed the New York Fed to carry out the move. Even the "Buy 5 to 10 billion yen" to-do list on the Becent notebook was caught by the reporter. The signal levels are completely different.
2. Further actions followed—both countries have clearly stated they will "continue to intervene." Moreover, Japan is preparing to use the Federal Reserve's FIMA repo tool, using US Treasuries as collateral for US dollars, with plenty of ammunition prepared.
3. But intervention only fixes the symptoms, not the root cause—Japan also spent money during its solo operation in April and May, but after a few days of rebound, it went back. Whether the yen can truly stabilize depends on when the Bank of Japan raises rates again and when the Federal Reserve eases to cut rates.
Those short-term short on the yen should be cautious, as the US-Japan alliance could strike again at any time. But whether the medium- to long-term trend can reverse still depends on when the interest rate spread truly narrows.
Let's talk in the comments—how much do you think the yen can rebound this time? 👇[What is the market trading?] ] The market is currently pricing in expectations of tighter cross-border crypto regulations in South Korea: stablecoins on Korean exchanges have seen net outflows for 18 consecutive months, with monthly outflows reaching $367 million in June 2026, and funds continue to migrate to overseas crypto platforms. [What Truly Matters] South Korea is one of Asia's core crypto markets, and its regulatory moves directly affect regional crypto liquidity. If future cross-border crypto regulatory details are implemented, it could change the usage scenarios for stablecoins in Asia, further impacting crypto asset trading activity. [Next 48 Hours to Watch] Focus on monitoring whether South Korean financial regulators will release more detailed rules on cross-border crypto regulation, as well as potential disruptions to short-term liquidity in BTC and ETH by related news. #BTC #ETH#美日确认联合购汇
#
Japan's Ministry of Finance officially confirmed joint foreign exchange purchases and yen stabilization with the U.S. Treasury, marking the first coordinated exchange rate intervention between the U.S. and Japan since 2011. The USD/JPY surged rapidly from a 40-year low in a short period, directly disrupting the massive global yen carry trades, leaving Bitcoin unable to navigate this liquidity fluctuation.
1. Core underlying logic: yen carry trading is the biggest variable
The underlying logic of global multi-trillion-dollar carry trades: institutions borrow ultra-low interest yen to exchange for US dollars, increasing positions in US stocks, US Treasuries, crypto assets, and other risk assets.
1. Continued depreciation phase of the yen: Arbitrage trading runs smoothly, continuously injecting incremental funds into risk assets;
2. Joint official intervention drives rapid yen strengthening: A large number of leveraged arbitrage traders have suffered unrealized losses, forcing them to sell stocks and cryptocurrencies to repay debts in exchange for yen to repay debts, triggering concentrated liquidation pressure.
The U.S. proactive move this time is not only aimed at supporting Japan, but also to prevent Japan from selling off U.S. Treasuries on a large scale to support the market, preventing further surge in Treasury yields and accelerating global liquidity tightening.
2. Two transmission paths to understand Bitcoin's bullish and bearish scenarios
Short-term Negative Risk (The Primary Warning Now)
1. Concentrated short squeezing triggers chain of position reductions: Previously, massive yen shorts were crushed, leading to passive unwinding of carry positions, causing short-term selling pressure on risk assets and sharply amplifying market volatility;
2. The market will continue to maneuver and intervene continuously. If there is no sustained capital increase in the future, sentiment will repeatedly pull and market volatility will intensify.
Potential for a medium- to long-term turnaround
1. If joint intervention effectively stabilizes the yen and prevents Japan from continuing to sell off U.S. Treasuries, upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields will ease, indirectly improving global risk appetite;
2. Reality must be recognized: intervention can only fix short-term extreme exchange rate trends. The huge US-Japan interest rate gap remains unchanged, and the long-term logic of carry trading cannot be completely reversed. After a rebound, the yen is highly likely to face pressure again.
3. Traders must avoid two major pitfalls
1. Do not mistake short-term rallies for trend reversals
Policy intervention is a sudden external force. Historically, multiple combined exchange rate interventions have generally weakened market rebounds, often pulsing in pulse patterns with poor profit-loss ratios for chasing orders.
2. Do not decide to open positions solely based on forex market news
Exchange rate fluctuations only affect short-term volatility; Bitcoin's medium- to long-term pricing core still anchors the Fed's interest rate path and inflation data. A single event is difficult to reverse the large-scale trend. [Pharaoh Market Watch]
Everyone is asking the pharaoh: with Korean stocks rising 14% in one day, is the bull market returning?
Pharaoh bluntly said, don't get carried away. This is "a big drop, then a quick bounce," not a trend reversal. 14% sounds impressive, but the circuit breakers in KOSPI are as frequent as drinking water, with the index nearly halved. Today's big bullish candlestick is more of a retaliatory correction to the previous extreme oversold and panic selling, and has little to do with fundamental improvement.
So why has it risen so sharply?
The Bank of Korea previously hinted at possible intervention to stabilize the market, and combined with joint intervention by the US and Japan in the yen, which boosted sentiment in Asian markets, short sellers concentrated to cover. The Korean stock market is highly concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix, which together once accounted for over 60% of KOSPI's total market capitalization. As soon as individual stocks surge, the index followed suit.
What does this mean for the big pie?
Short-term sentiment has recovered, selling pressure in Asian sessions eased, and Bitcoin rebounded from around 62,000 to 63,000. In the medium term, the nature of the Korean stock market's sharp rises and falls—high concentration, liquidity-driven, and policy-sensitive—determines that it will continue to fluctuate.
As always, good deals are waited for, not chased.
Follow Pharaoh and never lose your way to wealth! $ETH $BTC $HOME #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
There is no long-term interest rate in the crypto market
The 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5.27%, the first time since 2007.
JPMorgan has moved up its rate hike expectations to December this year, with a target of 5.4%. Oil prices fell 7% in a single day, bringing the US and Iran back to the negotiating table. With the introduction of the FIMA tool by the U.S.-Japan joint currency protection program, Japan can obtain US dollars without selling bonds, easing the long-term upward pressure.
Three variables are pulling simultaneously, with the 30-year yield at 5.3% undecided. Traditional markets are debating a classic question: the top, or a new starting point?
The crypto market is not involved in this debate. It simply doesn't have the tool of "long-term interest rates."
Traditional assets can be compressed into a single yield figure through long-term expectations of 30-year Treasury trading—interest rate hike path, inflation outlook, recession probability. The crypto market does not have a 30-year bond market; it only expresses long-term expectations in one way: put the price there and update it daily.
While traditional markets debated whether 5.27% was the top, crypto prices had already reacted simultaneously to three variables: a 7% drop in oil prices, earlier rate hike expectations, and the US-Japan joint currency protection. It doesn't need to wait for a yield number to tell itself direction—its price itself is the direction.
In the following weeks, there is an observation that can be continuously tracked:
If the 30-year yield remains sideways around 5.3%, and crypto market prices start to move upward out of the current range, it indicates that the latter is already pricing in for the "confirmation of the long-term rate top."
If the crypto market moves sideways or downward in sync with yields, it indicates it is still digesting uncertainties in traditional markets and has not yet formed independent direction judgments.
The long-term crypto market is not priced by the bond market, but by each block being repriced.$WLD $BZ $AVAX $ZEC $UAI $SUI $COTI $XAG $ADA $LINK ##折旧年限延至25年, Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance has been lowered
By extending the depreciation period from 5 years to 25 years, Microsoft has conveniently lowered its capital expenditure guidance. At first glance, this seems like an accounting game, but the capital doesn't see it that way—the cloud vendors' "arms race" narrative was suddenly torn open, AI infrastructure stocks kneel in respect, and risk appetite is like a balloon pricked by needles. When money withdraws from long-term logic, it always needs a place to hide, but at this moment, SKHYNIX's market is twisted against this macro backdrop: prices are falling, positions are shrinking, but volatility has shrunk into a straight line. This is a contradiction in itself—no one enters or leaves, yet prices keep dropping, as if someone is secretly digging a dam with a spoon.
First, look at the 4-hour chart. The latest structural signal is at $884.17, indicating a downward direction. But interestingly, this level wasn't made with heavy volume, but rather with a bearish decline on shrinking volume. There is also a similar structural signal on the 1-hour chart, at $1161.6, also bearish. Both timeframes are saying "down," but open interest is falling simultaneously, yet the fee rate is still hovering at 0.0003, at the historical rank of 0.71—not expensive, but not cheap either. This combination usually means: it's not the bulls fleeing, but the bulls 'playing dead.' There was no panic selling, nor any bottom-fishing funds entering the market. It was as if everyone had agreed to leave their orders far away, waiting for the market to choose its own direction.
While monitoring the market, I noticed a detail: both the 4-hour and 1-hour effective zones have 7, and the volatility levels are contraction. This "double contraction" state has often been the final squeeze before a market turn. But the problem is, the direction of compression is not determined by structural signals, but by who can't resist making the first move. Currently, the price is hovering below $884. If this level is quickly reclaimed, then the previous downward structure would be a false move; But if a long upper shadow with increased volume appears near $884, bears will take advantage of the momentum to push downward, targeting a lower tightly traded zone.
Now, let's talk about the 1-hour signal at $1161.6. This level is a bit far from the current price, more like a stopover during the earlier decline. If the price really rebounds there, it actually shows the bulls are willing to fight back, but only if it first passes the $884 level. So now, the impression I get from the plate is: there's a lid on top and a floor below, but the floor isn't sturdy and the lid isn't thick. The real breakthrough point lies in when open interest will stop falling and rebound—if the price continues to decline but open interest starts to increase, then new bears are entering and there is still room ahead; If the price stops falling and open interest continues to decrease, it means the bears are taking profits, and a rebound could happen at any time.
My own plan is to proceed in two steps. Step one: If the price stops falling near $850 and a high-volume bullish candlestick appears on the 1-hour chart, completely engulfing the previous bearish candle, I will lightly go long, with a bottom line at $835, first targeting $884. If $884 holds, then look at $920. Step two: If the price falls below $835, I won't chase shorts. I'll wait for a rebound to around $850 before considering entry, set stop-loss above $865, and target the $800 round. Here's a premise: it must break out on high volume. If it's a low-volume decline, I'd rather be short on the position.
Back to the Microsoft issue. Extending the depreciation period ostensibly reflects financial adjustment, but in reality, it exposes cloud providers' anxiety about the AI computing power payback cycle. This anxiety spreads to the crypto world, and the most direct impact is that funds will withdraw from projects with strong "storytelling" and shift toward assets with obvious "cash flow" characteristics. SKHYNIX has neither a strong narrative nor stable cash flow—it's a case of being stuck on both sides. That's why its market is so twisted—macro funds don't want it, and short-term funds find it too unvolatile. But it is precisely this lack of interest that makes extreme market moves more likely. Because once a certain direction is broken, stop-loss orders and follow-on orders overlap, forming pulsed fluctuations.
The timing is very delicate now. At the beginning of August, liquidity was already drying up, and with frequent macro events, big funds were waiting for directions. SKHYNIX's open interest has dropped to a relatively low level, meaning that whether it moves upward or downward, it will need little fuel going forward. I tend to think it first makes a fake move—like quickly dipping down, sweeping out a batch of stop-loss orders, then quickly pulling back. This kind of movement is common at the end of low-volatility contraction and is specifically used to punish those chasing on both sides.
So my advice is: don't rush to act, just wait for that "fake move" to appear. If the price first falls to around $820 and then quickly recovers above $850, it means the bullish trap has been uncovered and you can follow up to go long; If the price first rises to around $900 and then quickly falls below $860, that's a bear trap and you can reverse to short. In both cases, stop-loss settings are easy to set and the profit-loss ratio is also reasonable. The worst is the current situation—prices fluctuate in the middle, and if you go in, you'll be repeatedly proven wrong.
Finally, at the 0.0003 level, if the price keeps falling, the rate may turn negative, making it a good time to observe the bottom signal. A negative rate means bears are paying for bulls, usually when sentiment is extremely pessimistic, but it can also be a breeding ground for reversals. I keep an eye on this indicator. If a negative rate appears for several consecutive hours and the price no longer hits new lows, that could be the end of this round of decline.
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#折旧年限延至25年, Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance was lowered Solana (SOL) Real-Time Price Analysis (August 3, 2026)
1. Real-time Price Overview
As of August 3, 2026, Solana (SOL) is priced at $73.14 on CoinMarketCap, up 1.51% in 24 hours. Other platforms are quoting between $72.97 and $73.56, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $1.32 billion and a market capitalization of about $42.7 billion.
SOL has a -0.81% discount relative to the global price in the Korean market. The SOL/BTC exchange rate continues to fluctuate below 0.002.
2. Intraday trend review
Early today, risk aversion was boosted by a sharp drop in international oil prices (Brent crude fell as much as 7.3% to $81.55 per barrel), with SOL rising over 3%. However, the subsequent drop in oil prices sparked concerns about global demand, cooling risk sentiment and causing SOL to give back some of its gains.
SOL previously surged to $74.30 before pulling back under pressure, rebounding from a low of $70.51 before entering a volatile recovery phase. Currently, the price is consolidating around $73, with rebound volume continuing to shrink. The price remains below two key resistance levels: the 100-day EMA (around $75) and the 200-day EMA (around $79).
3. Market Drivers
Network upgrade implementation: On July 29, the Solana Foundation successfully activated the SIMD-0286 upgrade, raising the maximum computing units per block from 60 million to 100 million, and boosting mainnet throughput by 66%. After the upgrade, transaction fees at the 90th percentile decreased by 30% (from 29,800 to 20,800 lamports). In July, Solana processed 8.7 billion transactions, marking a four-month high.
On-chain activity heats up: In July, the number of independently active trading wallets on the Solana network reached 609,000, a seven-month high. Circle minted 250 million USDC on the Solana network today.
Macroeconomic Suppression: The sharp drop in oil prices has raised concerns about demand, and the overall market is suppressed by a somewhat hawkish macro environment, making it difficult for SOL to break out of its standalone upward trend. Market forecasts show a 79% probability that SOL will fall below $70 in August.
Historical weakness: SOL has closed with a monthly bearish candlestick for 10 consecutive months, making it one of the weakest cycles in history.
4. Technical Aspects and Key Positions
Current pattern: 1-hour MACD bullish bars have been continuously expanding, with the price above $73.5; the 4-hour MACD bars have turned positive (0.1536), with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at $73.20 forming support. The 4-hour RSI is about 52.92, and the 1-hour RSI is about 64.57, indicating that it is not overbought. The funding rate was 0.0038%, with stable holdings and no signs of overheating. Overall, it is characterized as a technical rebound recovery under a bearish trend.
Key Resistances:
· $73.80-$74.30: 1-hour upper Bollinger band and recent resistance zone
· $75: 100-day EMA; a reclaim would open upward space
· $79: 200-day EMA, mid-term trend divide
Key supports:
· $72.95-$73.20: First short-term support, Bollinger middle band, and a stop-loss zone
· $72.2-72.6: The first target after the break
· $70.5-70.8: Recent lows and second support targets
· $60-70: Key long-term accumulation zone identified by analysts
5. Summary
Solana is currently in a consolidation phase at $73-74, with short-term technical signs such as MACD turning positive and bullish signals, but rebound volume continues to shrink. $73.80-$74.30 is the first resistance—a valid breakout and holding above $75 could open up rebound space toward $76-78; If it encounters resistance and falls below $72.95, it may test $72.2 or even $70.5.
The core contradiction lies in the tug-of-war between continuous improvement in on-chain fundamentals (network upgrades, new wallet counts, USDC issuance) and macro suppression and a ten-month consecutive downward trend. If the SOL/BTC rate breaks out, it could become a key catalyst for a trend reversal.
$SOL Fundamental Research Report $FLOKI / Floki (Meme/Pay) $3.20
To put it plainly: Floki ($FLOKI) has an overall score of 47/100, rated as an early-stage project, with insufficient validation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Fundamental Analysis: Floki (token $FLOKI), Meme/Payments track. Focusing on Meme+ on-chain universities. Benchmarking against DOGE and SHIB. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Let's look together with peers (unified perspective, no cross-sector comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Floki is $3.00B, DOGE is undisclosed, SHIB is not disclosed. On the FDV side, Floki $4.20B, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Floki $2.00M, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Floki has not disclosed, DOGE has not disclosed, SHIB has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. To sum up: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 47/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Potential pitfalls: short-term large-scale unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Tracking metrics: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is the logic and judgment of the publicly available information and does not constitute buying or selling advice. Core financial indicators deviate by more than 30%, and the conclusion needs to be reassessed.
That's all for the fundamentals; leave the rest to the market.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit[ZORA: The craziest cut in on-chain social media targets 'content traffic'] If the last round of crypto chases was DeFi yields, NFT images, and public chain TPS, now the most exciting new question arises: can content itself be directly turned into tradable assets? This is what attracts me most about ZORA. It's not just about issuing a coin, nor just rebranding ordinary social platforms; it's about blending "posting content, reading content, trading content, and hyping content" into an on-chain closed loop. Previously, if a post went viral, the platform would eat up traffic, creators would get followers, and users would only get a like; What ZORA wants to say now is: a piece of content itself can be minted into coins, bought and sold, disseminated, and priced by the market. This sounds outrageous, but the crypto world is best at turning the absurdity into a transaction. Why can memes go viral? Because it turns emotions into prices. ZORA is even more aggressive, trying to price content traffic as well: a post, a creator, a trending topic—as long as someone is willing to trade, it can create temporary on-chain liquidity. So the focus of ZORA is not "whether it is a traditional value coin," but whether it can capture the real traffic of on-chain social interaction. If users are truly willing to interact, speculate, and spread content coins on Base, it could become one of the most talked-about entry points in SocialFi. But I want to pour cold water on it: this path carries huge risks. The biggest advantages of content coins are their lightness, speed, and strong dissemination; The biggest drawback is also this$CORE Recently, a highly inflammatory opinion has been flooding the social circle: those who keep following updates will definitely profit; On the 24th, institutions made a large-scale entrance, and on the 26th, it successfully connected to the bit power grid; In August, the ten-thousand-fold rally plan officially begins, with the market about to see a double kill between bulls and bears. It is recommended to hold spot positions well and stay away from contracts, with the ultimate target targeting $188. The epic CORE dark horse rally has officially begun.
⚠️ Information analysis and exchange are limited to the highest volatility risk of crypto assets and do not constitute any investment advice
1. Tear apart the narrative packaging traps one by one
1. There is no verifiable evidence of the "24-day institutional entry."
This claim is an old, repeatedly rehashed rumor. On-chain whale transfers, net inflows of market software funds, and address token migrations are merely token turnover and quantitative inversion, which cannot be directly equated with new external institutional funds.
So far, there has been no official institutional announcement or continuous on-chain transaction hash buying to support this; it is purely relying on rumors to create the illusion of a first-mover advantage and induce follow-up buying.
2. Access to the bit grid is a stock plan, not a sudden major positive development
The layout of the bit grid has long been outlined in the official roadmap, representing established technical deployments rather than sudden breakthrough benefits.
Contract function deployment is complete≠ generating sustainable revenue. Only completing the basic technology integration means there is still a long way to go before large-scale user deployment and stable fee income are generated, so it cannot be directly equated with a surge in token prices.
3. Ten thousand times the market, target $188, typical emotional brainwashing tactics
Currently, CORE's price is only $0.019–$0.021, so $188 means an increase close to ten thousandfold. A ten-thousand-fold market requires a super bull market, exclusive track barriers, massive off-exchange incremental funds, and extremely low circulation to resonate under multiple extreme conditions.
At this stage, fundamentals are far from supporting such expectations. During bear market rebound cycles, the goal of sky-high prices of hundreds or tens of thousands is a classic FOMO tactic, creating a sense of urgency when missed opportunities are lost, attracting retail investors to buy shares at rebound highs.
4. The phrase "stay away from contracts and hold spot assets" hides a misleading appeal
It seems to be a good intention to avoid the risks of high leverage in contracts, but in reality, it lowers everyone's risk control vigilance.
Many investors choose to hold heavy spot positions and hold out for the long term. Don't make mistakes: contracts carry the risk of liquidation, and heavy spot positions also mean sustained declines and large drawdowns with huge floating losses. Coins with weak liquidity and ongoing unlocking pressure are definitely not safe deposits.
2. The fundamental reality beneath the celebration cannot be ignored
1. This round of rebound does not involve any new major positive developments; it relies on a narrative of existing assets combined with oversold recovery. CORE liquidity is relatively weak; a small amount of capital can quickly rally the market, and pulse rallies are very easy to spike and then pull back.
2. SatPay is still in internal testing and has not yet been fully opened to the public; The ecosystem revenue buyback plan has been announced, but lacks continuous monthly buyback amounts and transaction hash disclosure, so the actual execution strength remains to be seen.
3. Staking volume and ecosystem TVL heavily rely on token incentive subsidies. Once subsidies shrink, ecosystem activity and capital retention remain untested.
4. Treasury and early investors face ongoing pressure to unlock tokens, so a rebound naturally provides early holders with a window to cash out in batches.
3. The core benchmark for rational market judgment
Short-term sentiment can drive short-term price surges, but grand narratives cannot sustain long-term market trends.
The project's ongoing advancement in technology research and development and ecosystem expansion warrants ongoing observation; But stories of getting rich ten thousand times can only be used as a reference for market sentiment, absolutely not as a basis for trading.
Subsequent assessments focus solely on actionable and verifiable data: SatPay public beta transaction volume, monthly regular buyback execution records, and stable ecosystem pledge volume after subsidies.
Summary
The track has long-term potential, but that doesn't mean a mythical market can emerge in the short term.
There are no "sure-to-win" trades in the market, nor any guaranteed ten-thousand-fold targets. During the collective rebound celebration phase, it is even more important to be cautious of chip selling pressure and liquidity risks.
Vision requires no cost, principal is hard to rebuild, and risk control is always prioritized.$BANK $KAITO $GIGGLE $MU $SUI $ZEC $BNB $XAG $HOME $1000 SHIB ##韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
KOSPI's bullish candlestick stunned the bears; a 14% single-day gain in a mature market is almost a nuclear bomb event. Asia-Pacific risk assets were instantly repriced, with funds fleeing from safe havens and flooding into all beta-linked assets. This level of emotional outpouring usually doesn't end within 24 hours; it ripples across the global market. The CL I was watching showed unusual movement at the end of the Asian session—not following the rise, but a probing pulse independent of the broader market.
Let's first look at the most direct handicap language. The volatility of the 4-hour level has just exploded out of contraction, like a tight rubber band suddenly snapping, while the 1-hour level is still maintaining a normal rhythm, indicating that the big cycle is brewing direction, and the small cycle hasn't caught up yet. This mismatch often means: either the small cycle is being dragged down by the big cycle, or the big cycle is deceiving the cannon. I lean toward the former, because the improvement in risk appetite brought by KOSPI is real, not a self-directed futures market.
Structurally, the latest 4-hour signal at 78.82 indicated a downward turn, but the 1-hour signal confirmed an upward breakout at the same price level. Two cycles fighting at the same price is itself an anomaly worth recording. 78.82 is like a watershed, with bulls and bears repeatedly tugging at this point. Whoever holds their ground first will take the initiative in the next market move. I noticed that when the price is below 78.82, open interest increases while prices fall, which is typical short interest accumulation; but when the price rebounds near 78.82, the growth of open interest slows, indicating that bears are hesitating at this level and are afraid to continue increasing their positions.
The rate is currently 0, at the historical rank of 0.57. This data is quite interesting—it's neither expensive nor cheap, but combined with the background of falling prices and rising open positions, it shows that the market hasn't formed a consensus of bearish expectations; instead, some are quietly setting up long positions. If the price can effectively break above 78.82, these hidden long positions will quickly become profitable, triggering short covering and creating a stampede effect.
In terms of effective zones, there are 11 key price levels in the 4-hour class and 5 in the 1-hour range. The more the quantity, the more likely the market is to repeatedly change hands within this range, with complex chip distribution. But complexity does not equal chaos; instead, it gives us precise coordinates. I focus on the dense trading zone on the 4-hour level, roughly between 77.50 and 79.20. There are too many stop-loss and pending orders piled up within this range. Once it breaks through, the speed will be very fast.
Now, back to KOSPI, the trigger. The sharp rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets will boost global risk appetite, which is a direct positive for highly volatile CL stocks. But note that CL's synergy isn't always synchronized—it has its own rhythm. The pulse of the Asian session may just be a rehearsal; the real direction will have to wait for the European and American sessions to take over. If risk appetite continues during the European and US sessions, CL is very likely to break above 78.82; but if profit-taking occurs during the session, CL may repeatedly fluctuate below 78.82, or even test the support at 77.50.
My prediction is as follows: if the price touches 78.82 again within the next 4 hours, accompanied by a significant increase in open interest (indicating incremental capital entering), I will try to follow up with a long position, setting the bottom line at 77.80, with the first target at 79.20. If it breaks above 79.20 and a continuous bullish candlestick appears on the 1-hour level, then look at the 80.00 round number. But if the price repeatedly resists near 78.82 and open interest starts to decline (indicating bulls are retreating), I will give up on going long and instead observe whether the 77.50 support holds firm. If 77.50 is breached, the 4-hour downside signal will dominate, with bears targeting 76.80 or even lower.
Another detail worth noting: there are only 5 effective zones at the 1-hour level, far fewer than 11 in 4-hour intervals, indicating that short-term chip structures are relatively clear, and once the direction is set, the momentum of small cycles becomes stronger. Therefore, if 78.82 is breached, the 1-hour level movement will be straightforward and won't drag on.
The surge in KOSPI gives us a macro backdrop, but trading shouldn't focus solely on macro factors. CL's market has its own language, and 78.82 is what it wants to say most right now. I choose to listen rather than speak for it. If it chooses to go up, I follow; If it chooses to go down, I'll wait. The market is always right, and the ones at fault are those who try to predict it.
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history SOL currently has a clear advantage in bullish positions, but this is not the capital direction yet
SOL's community snapshots provide both heat and tone, but not necessarily on the same side.
On August 3rd, at 10:00 (China time), OKX Onchain OS recorded 15 mentions of SOL in one hour, including 15 mentions of X and 0 news articles; The total 24-hour volume was 373 times.
The latest hour is 0.97 times the hourly average for the long window, which is nearly the 24-hour average and can be considered 'roughly close to the long window average.' This speed describes new discussions and is not necessarily related to market fluctuations.
The tone of the text is bullish at 53%, bearish at 20%, and neutral about 27%, currently classified as "bullish clearly dominant." 56% bullish and 15% bearish over 24 hours; If there is a gap between the two windows, it should first be understood as a change in the discussion structure, rather than directly deriving a price target.
I will draw these two lines separately. If the tone is too heavy but the speed of mention is slower, it means the current discussion is more positive, but the new attention hasn't accelerated; If mentions are rising and bearish are dominant, it may be risk or fault news attracting people. Even if the hype and tone are in the same direction, it still cannot be directly equated with genuine buying.
Source is another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels respond fastest, and the same topic can be reposted repeatedly; The more concentrated the source, the more the next window needs confirmation. News mentions that an increase does not automatically mean the event is true; the original announcement remains the final verifying standard.
Within 24 hours, SOL's X and news mentions were 372 and 1 time, respectively; One hour means 15 and 0 times. If short windows are more focused on X than long windows, sensitivity should be increased to forwarding and single narratives; If the proportion of news increases, also check whether the same material is actually being restated.
What really matters are SOL's on-chain transaction success rate, fees, active addresses, and main application usage, combined with spot trading, perpetual contract funding rates, and open interest. These data answer usage needs and leverage participation, and popular rankings cannot replace them.
Time differences also need to be watched for. The 373 24-hour samples span different market periods; dividing by 24 is just for comparison convenience and does not mean the same volume of discussion every hour. A single deviation from the mean should be observed first, not as a trend completion.
How can you tell that it was just noise? The next round of mentions increased, but the tone quickly returned to neutral. This time, the sense of direction was mostly due to a small sample size. If the speed of mentions continues to rise and the sources expand from a single community, attention will gradually stabilize. In the end, what can change judgments is still continuous data, not a louder slogan.
Let's note three things for now: SOL discussions generally follow the long-window average, while the short-term window's tone is clearly more favorable, and it's almost entirely driven by X. If the speed continues and the sources become more diverse, and transactions and on-chain data also echo, this observation can be pushed forward further; Before that, put them on the watch list and don't rush to run.① SK海力士（000660.KS） 当前行情： 8月3日早盘，SK海力士大幅下跌。截至北京时间10时31分，SK海力士报159.5万韩元，较前一交易日下跌约7.15%。盘中一度跌超7.5%。上周五（7月31日），SK海力士刚刚经历了30%涨停的历史性暴涨，收于171.8万韩元。 韩国大盘： 韩国KOSPI指数重挫超5%，一度跌至6,200点附近。韩国交易所启动了韩国创业板指（KOSDAQ）的SIDECAR机制，程序化交易暂停5分钟。周一早盘外资成为KOSPI指数成份股最大的净卖方；散户投资者则买入，本地基金也出现卖出。 下跌驱动——暴涨后的获利回吐： 获利回吐压力巨大。 上周五SK海力士封死30%涨停板，短线获利盘积累巨大，周一面临自然回调压力。韩国媒体将今日的下跌定性为“暴涨后的速度调整”。 韩国大盘重挫。 KOSPI指数重挫超5%，大盘系统性下跌拖累所有权重股。 外资流出。 上周五外资创下KOSPI历史上单日最大净买入规模后，今日出现获利了结性质的流出。 日韩股市联动杀跌。 日经225指数下跌超2%，下跌超过1,400点。日本半导体股出现V型反弹，存储巨头飙升超7%，但韩国半导体🪝 Many traders still judge $CORE by sticking to two fixed mindsets: First, focus on short-term candlestick fluctuations, expecting a single piece of news to trigger a one-sided surge; Second, it is simply classified as a BTCFi theme rotating coin, following Bitcoin's rise and fall in synchronized market movement. However, as the 2026 roadmap continues to be implemented and industry competition intensifies, a brand-new valuation system is taking effect. The BTCFi track has moved past the early dividend phase of "just picking on the concept and getting hyped," and market capital screening standards have shifted: narratives can only attract short-term speculative funds, while sustained cash flow buybacks and genuine BTC stock accumulation are the core foundations supporting long-term market cap. 1. Differentiation Barrier: The Replicable Native Self-Custody System Most BTC staking and BTC yield-bearing solutions on the market cannot escape custody or cross-chain encapsulation models. Users transfer BTC to third-party contracts or institutional accounts, transferring asset control to others, resulting in long-term risk of defaults; Cross-chain encapsulated assets continue to bear the security risks of cross-chain bridges. CORE relies on Bitcoin's underlying CLTV time-lock script to build a staking mechanism, creating a natural differentiated barrier: during staking, BTC permanently resides at the Bitcoin mainnet UTXO address, locked by native scripts, and the CORE protocol has no permission to transfer or use users' Bitcoin assets. Private keys are always in the hands of the user, with no custody or encapsulation or mapping required. For long-term Bitcoin holders who insist on prioritizing asset sovereignty, this mechanism precisely addresses a major pain point: idleness$BTC
According to what we've seen during the past two bear markets, there might still be some additional downside left.
During both the 2018 and the 2022 bear market, we saw an extended period where price moved sideways before the final correction happened and the market formed its bottom.
In 2022, this range lasted 154 days, while in 2018 it lasted even longer at 175 days.
This time around, BTC has once again been trading in a range between $60K and $67K for the past two months.
Considering that bear markets have historically lasted around 365 days, this cycle could end up looking very similar.
Another two months of sideways price action before we see one final flush to the downside and the market forms its bottom.$BTC #KoreaChipSelloff $NEAR $MANTRA $AVAX $KOMA $EWY $1000SHIB $ADA $UAI $UNI $BTW ##Depreciation period extended to 25 years, Microsoft lowers capital expenditure guidance
The depreciation period has been extended from 5 years to 25 years, and Microsoft has revised its capital expenditure guidance downward. When this news came out, Nasdaq futures didn’t crash, but semiconductor equipment stocks softened first. The market’s initial reaction wasn’t “the AI narrative is over,” but rather “the cash flow game rules have changed” — with longer depreciation, current profits look better, but the replacement cycle is indefinitely postponed, effectively telling the market: don’t expect me to buy chips on a large scale next year. Funds withdrawing from this sector have to find somewhere else to go, and on the cryptocurrency side, especially tokens related to the storage chip concept, have instead become a receiving pool.
The name SNDK is naturally understood by those in the know; for those who don’t, it’s pointless to explain. It is deeply tied to the storage chip cycle. Microsoft cutting capital expenditure is theoretically bearish, but the market is following a different logic — bad news becoming good news because the worst expectations have already been priced in. Now, the volatility on the 4-hour chart is at a normal level, while the 1-hour chart is contracting, indicating both bulls and bears are waiting for a trigger point; whoever moves first will be at a disadvantage.
Looking at the chart details: the last structural signal on the 4-hour level appeared at 972.2, pointing downward, but interestingly, a structural signal also appeared on the 1-hour level at 1266.99, pointing upward. The huge gap between these two numbers shows extreme internal market division — bearish on the larger timeframe, bullish on the smaller timeframe, a typical consolidation and bottoming pattern. If the price can hold above 1266 and the volatility on the 1-hour chart starts to expand, the bearish structure on the 4-hour level will likely be repaired, and the first rebound target won’t be the previous high but that overlooked gap.
Position data is even more interesting. The price is rising, but open interest is falling, a typical sign of short covering rather than new long entries. The funding rate is 0, and the percentile is only 0.07, indicating leveraged funds have no interest in participating; it’s all spot buyers holding firm. This kind of market is both the most dangerous and the safest — dangerous because if spot buying dries up, prices will collapse instantly; safe because if someone dares to increase volume here, the short covering will be extremely strong.
Regarding effective zones, there are two on the 4-hour level and four on the 1-hour level. Don’t ask me exactly where; look at the chart yourself. I can only say that if the price falls to the lower 4-hour zone and forms a long lower shadow, I will not hesitate to buy a little, placing a stop loss just below the lowest point of that zone. The first target is the middle zone on the 1-hour level, and the second target is the upper zone on the 4-hour level. If the price shoots straight up without a pullback, I won’t chase; I’ll wait for a high and then a retracement.
This Microsoft matter essentially changes the “AI arms race” narrative from “unlimited investment” to “refined operations.” This is short-term bearish but medium-term bullish for storage chip tokens like SNDK — because big companies won’t buy new equipment, but maintenance and upgrades of existing equipment still require storage. Moreover, the extended depreciation period means the performance bottlenecks of old equipment will surface earlier, actually driving upgrade demand. The market hasn’t yet caught on to this logic; by the time it does, prices will have already soared.
Don’t ask me for a target price; I’m not a fortune teller. I only know that at this position, the downside is limited, and the upside needs a catalyst. The catalyst could be a major company suddenly announcing a storage price increase, an institution suddenly increasing its SNDK holdings, or an exchange launching perpetual contracts. These are unpredictable, but the market structure already tells me bulls and bears have reached a temporary balance here. Whoever breaks this balance first will capture the next big move.
In terms of operation, my current position is light and exploratory. If the price oscillates repeatedly near the upward signal on the 1-hour level and volatility continues to contract, I will add to my position. If the price breaks below the downward signal on the 4-hour level, I will stop loss and exit, waiting for it to stabilize again. This is not hesitation; this is discipline.
Finally, don’t treat SNDK as a long-term investment; it’s more suitable for swing trading. The storage chip cycle is too short and sentiment too volatile; holding long-term is like riding a roller coaster. Either enter and exit quickly or don’t touch it at all. The market isn’t short of opportunities; it’s short of patience and discipline.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
#折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调 #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? Is a new financial storm approaching?
The market may be ignoring a red flag
The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries surged to 5.27%, the highest since 2007
Many people are watching the stock market, AI, and interest rate cut expectations, but the "anchor" that truly determines the fate of global assets is shaking violently
The surge in U.S. Treasury yields appears to be about interest rate issues, but behind it lies the market's concern about an even more serious problem:
The inflation specter may be making a comeback
Of course, it is not yet possible to definitively say that a financial crisis will definitely occur
But history tells us that the truly dangerous moment is never the day a crisis erupts, but when the market begins to ignore risk
And now, some warning signs are appearing simultaneously:
US Treasury yields continued to climb;
Inflation expectations have repeatedly risen;
Oil prices are strengthening again;
There are divergences in the Fed's internal policy direction
After the Federal Reserve meeting on July 29, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries briefly broke above 5.27%
What does this number mean?
This means the market is repricing the future
Many people saw a month-on-month decline in June PCE and assumed inflation was over
But what the market trades is never yesterday's data, but tomorrow's risk
PCE is a published transcript
The yield on U.S. Treasuries is the market's forecast for the next exam results.
What the market is truly afraid of right now is:
If oil prices rise again, will inflation reignite?
If the U.S. economy remains strong, will the Fed be forced to maintain high interest rates, or even shift to a hawkish stance?
If the US-Iran situation worsens further, energy prices could become the next hidden bomb
Oil prices are not ordinary commodities
It acts like a fuse buried within the economic system
Once ignited, it quickly passes on to transportation costs, corporate profits, and consumer prices, ultimately pushing inflation expectations up again
What's even more troublesome is that the U.S. economy is currently not showing obvious slowdown
Domestic demand remained strong in the second quarter, indicating that high interest rates have not completely crushed the economy
The more resilient the economy, the fewer reasons the Fed has to cut rates
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking through its multi-year range is more like a warning to the market:
The era of valuation expansion driven by low interest rates over the past decade is now under retrial
Looking back at history, every rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields brings a huge shock to risk assets
In 2022, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates, causing U.S. Treasury yields to soar and triggering a major valuation shakeup in the U.S. tech sector
Before the 2008 financial crisis, the market also underestimated the destructive power of the combined risk of debt, interest rates, and financial system risks
The current market is like a large ship sailing at high speed
AI is the engine
Corporate profits are the fuel
And Treasury yields are like ever-surging waves
The faster the boat sails and the stronger the waves, the more hidden risks cannot be ignored
I believe the three biggest risk sources for US stocks in the second half of the year:
First, whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will break through 5.3%, raising the global asset valuation anchor again;
Second, whether oil prices will surge again due to geopolitical conflicts, triggering a second round of inflation shocks;
Third, whether the AI investment frenzy can truly realize profits, if capital investment exceeds profit realization, overvalued assets may face repricing
My judgment:
Now is not the time to declare a "financial crisis is here."
But the market is entering a highly sensitive window of danger
From August to the end of the year, US stocks may no longer experience the mindless rally they used to experience
The real upcoming showdown will take place at:
Valuation
Liquidity
Economic realities
Between these three
When prices rise, all assets can enjoy the celebration
But when the tide goes out, you'll know who is the real asset and who is just a bubble
The market's test may just be beginning. $BTC Fundamental Research Report $WIF / dogwifhat (Meme/Pay) $3.20
Essentially: dogwifhat ($WIF) has an overall score of 52/100, with a rating that narrative is more important than implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's start with projects: dogwifhat (token $WIF), Meme/Payments track. Focusing on Solana Meme. Benchmarked against PEPE and BONK. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Comparing with peers (unified standard, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market cap, dogwifhat $3.00B, PEPE undisclosed, BONK undisclosed. For FDV, dogwifhat $4.20B, PEPE undisclosed, BONK undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, dogwifhat $2.00M, PEPE undisclosed, BONK undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, dogwifhat has not disclosed, PEPE has not disclosed, BONK has not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In short: solid fundamentals (score 52/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Main risks: short-term massive unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break down, usage collapses). Next, focus on these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, and GitHub version release. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
Logic gives you this, the decision is yours.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit$BTC Trump Media (DJT) sold off its Bitcoin investments at massive losses, mainly signaling that institutional investors are forced to cut losses due to market downturns, and its symbolic significance may outweigh the actual impact on the market. 📉 Event Review: A "Cash Cut" After Buying at a High Price · Buy: In July-August 2025, purchase 11,542 BTC at an average price of about $118,529, with a total investment of about $1.368 billion. Selling: By 2026, a total of 7,281 BTC have been sold, with an average price of only about $74,860. Losses: Realized losses of approximately $318 million, plus unrealized losses from remaining positions, with cumulative losses/floating losses reaching $555 million. Latest move: On August 2, 2,628 BTC (about $165 million) were transferred into Crypto.com, suspected to be preparing for sale. 🔍 Signal Interpretation: More Than Just "Trump's" Failure · Signals of institutional "surrender": This is not an isolated incident. Many institutions that bought at the 2024 bull market highs (such as KULR Technology) are being forced to sell. Since its peak in 2025, the total value of corporate Bitcoin has evaporated by about $49 billion. The Coinbase premium index has remained negative since May, indicating that U.S. institutions have been selling off. Short-term pressure on Bitcoin's price: Although the company's selling volume has limited impact on average daily trading volume, this "forced selling" behavior can dampen market sentiment, creating a negative cycle. At present#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
$BICO
Today's situation is interesting—Spark directly said consumer apps would be put on hold indefinitely and switched to the B2B2C model. Then Robinhood's Q2 forecast market revenue actually surpassed cryptocurrency trading revenue. My first reaction was that DeFi concept stocks and prediction market tokens were both moving in the short term, with BICO rising more than 31% in 24 hours. Why do I think this is so crucial—it's not just a business adjustment, but more like a signal: the bulk of crypto revenue is slowly shifting from "transaction fees" to "event contracts."
Here's how I see the funding line: Robinhood's event contracts made $156 million in just one quarter, while crypto trading revenue was only $100 million, a 38% year-on-year decline. This shows that retail investors' interest in price games is truly cooling, and they are becoming increasingly addicted to the "result betting" game. Spark abandoned the consumer side and shifted to being a low-level collateral provider for institutions like Robinhood. Simply put, it packages DeFi liquidity and sells it to traditional financial gateways. Under this approach, infrastructure like BICO, which serves as an oracle or data index, actually benefits more from event contract explosions than exchange tokens.
A collaborative simulation: if BTC continues to grind within a narrow range, funds are very likely to look for tracks with independent logic. In ETH's Layer 2 ecosystem, the market and DeFi middleware are predicted to follow Robinhood's earnings report rhythm. SOL's high throughput is indeed suitable for high-frequency event settlement, but in the short term, it is more about sentiment linkage. Whether BICO can continue this rally depends on whether funds classify it as "event contract infrastructure," rather than just small-cap speculation.
Here are two observation criteria: First, if BTC can hold its current range and break out with increased volume, risk appetite will return, and high-beta stocks like BICO can continue to push forward; Second, if Robinhood's event contract revenue continues to rise quarter-on-quarter next quarter but cryptocurrency trading revenue hasn't rebounded yet, funds will accelerate withdrawing from trading tokens and rushing into prediction-related projects.
Risk warning: some of the predicted market revenue surge is due to quarterly factors; major events like the US election cannot be sustained indefinitely. BICO's 30% single-day gain has already fulfilled some expectations in advance. If the market pulls back or the heat of event contracts cools down, the drawback will be significant.Market Flash: Trump withdraws strikes on Iran before waiting for a swift deal—the clause to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be the single macro boost for Bitcoin since the June ceasefire
According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to cancel the originally planned strike against Iran on the condition that a deal "can be reached quickly," after Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had previously stated they were pushing for an agreement. Trump said Israel has also agreed to join his commitment to delay action. The relevant provisions include the immediate and comprehensive reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of Iran's nuclear threat—both conditions that would simultaneously remove the oil price risk premium that has kept Brent crude above $90 and end the main inflation transmission channels that prevent the Fed from unleashing a more dovish interest rate path. This move came after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump not to carry out new strikes (according to Axios). This is because the U.S. military had previously been instructed to launch a new strike on Iran this weekend, following Trump's vow at Friday's cabinet meeting to strike Iran "very hard." Due to the conflict that began on February 28 and now marks its sixth month, Brent crude closed above $90 last week—a sharp increase from below $72 earlier last month—as the conflict repeatedly disrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world's oil and gas supply.
Why the deal terms matter—Hormuz and nuclear elements are considered together
The terms Trump has announced are the most comprehensive single settlement framework since the June 19 ceasefire MOU—and structurally more demanding ones. The June MOU called for a halt to hostilities; The current framework additionally demands two conditions: the immediate and comprehensive reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to Iran's nuclear threat. This combination is significant because each condition corresponds to a different inflation transmission channel.
The immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in Iran is a key condition for the oil market. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil and gas supply, has been the main mechanism driving this conflict to push Brent from below $72 in early July to above $90 by the end of this week, and to above $100 at several points in the upgrade cycle. The full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will immediately begin to reduce the approximately $18-25 oil price risk premium accumulated since the outbreak of the conflict; Brent may retreat to the $65-72 range corresponding to the June ceasefire. This drop in oil prices will lower inflation (CPI) expectations, decrease the probability of a Fed rate hike, and send out macro "permission" signals—exactly what structural buying for Bitcoin requires—to push it above $67,250 and move toward Bitfinex's short-term holder cost base of $68,500.
This nuclear commitment directly points to the risks of a longer cycle: the "endgame scenario" of conflict—that is, military action by the U.S. or Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities—has been priced in at the tail of oil markets. If it can be formalized and verifiable that Iran's commitment to end its nuclear threat, it will reduce the probability of the most extreme escalations partially priced in by the market since February 28.
Stop-Start mode
The six-month conflict has produced multiple signals of a ceasefire, but all have failed. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on June 19 was a formal agreement, but it collapsed within weeks. The wording Trump began the deal on July 28—"Now is a good time to reach an agreement," "I want to avoid attacking bridges and power plants"—was replaced within 36 hours by "We will strike them hard, and they will be hit just as hard," confirming the ballistic missile exchange between Iran and Jordan. The most recent Friday cabinet meeting included Trump's vow to "strike very hard" on Iran—and the same meeting also produced the strike order for this weekend; The current cancellation actions are reversing these orders.
This conditional statement—"subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL"—preserves Trump's ability to immediately resume strike operations if negotiations stall or if Iran fails to meet the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear commitments within the timeframe Trump considers "fast enough." The pattern of this round of conflict diplomacy is that conditions change faster than the oil price market can sustainably and steadily reprice. In the past, all ceasefire signals triggered oil price drops were partially or fully reversed within 48-72 hours after diplomatic signals proved premature.
Read-Through mapping between oil products and crypto markets
Brent crude oil climbed from below $72 at the beginning of last month to above $90 by the end of this week—and even surged above $100 during the steepest phase of the upgrade—a macro headwind that had persisted throughout July, dragging down Bitcoin and the crypto market. The correlation between the two is direct: rising oil prices push up CPI inflation, which in turn raises expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes; Rate hike expectations strengthen the US dollar; Because of the inverse DXY correlation between the US dollar and Bitcoin, a stronger dollar puts pressure on Bitcoin. The 35% probability of a FOMC rate hike in July, Bank of America's three rate hike forecasts—September, October, December—and Citadel's clear "rate hike" judgment all stem from the same "oil price-inflation" transmission channel.
A credible reopening deal for the Strait of Hormuz could pull Brent back from $90 to $72 or lower, and simultaneously: lowering short-term CPI expectations; Raise the probability of a rate hike in September from 63% to around 30-40%; Weakening the DXY's support for interest rate spreads against other major currencies; and remove the primary macro headwind that has kept Bitcoin in the $62,000–$66,000 range. Although Bitcoin currently has the strongest on-chain structural allocation in the current cycle—nine-year exchange supply at low levels, a record 79% LTH supply, and whales continuously increasing holdings—as long as this macro headwind exists, its movement will be limited. Coinbase previously leaked that the CLARITY Act could be voted on as early as Monday.
But recent news shows that today's official Senate agenda only includes a vote on the temporary appropriations process, with no crypto bill.
But it wasn't completely over yet. This week is the last window before recess, and from Tuesday to Friday, the agenda may be temporarily scheduled at any time.
Right now, the market isn't betting today, but whether it will suddenly hit the table in the coming days.#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
The financial report is just the fuse; unlocking the 100 billion yuan is the real dynamite.
After the market closed on August 4, SPCX submitted its first quarterly report. Usually, I look at three points: revenue, profit and loss, and guidance. But this time is far more than that—the day after the earnings report, August 6, up to 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, which is worth nearly $100 billion at $108.37.
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What is the market betting on?
FactSet expects Q2 revenue of about $6.88 billion, with a loss of $0.23 per share. Compared to Q1, it jumped significantly to 4.69 billion yuan, all relying on Starlink to continue expanding volume. But revenue exceeding expectations is only a passing line. The real question to be asked during the call was: Can Starlink user and revenue growth be sustained; Is the money earned enough to fill the gaps of Starship, xAI, and data centers? A loss of 4.28 billion yuan in the first quarter—how is free cash flow headed? No one expects it to be profitable now; everyone only cares about whether the pace of burning money has marginally improved.
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Market Language: Not panic, just a cold commotion
In the past 10 trading days, 3 have risen and 7 have fallen. On the day of the decline, about 440 million shares were traded, while on the day of gain, only 237 million shares, with the volume of selling volume being 1.86 times the amount of buying. The stock price slipped from 123.99 to 108.37, a drop of 12.6%. On July 31, it fell 3.41%, with a trading volume of 58.83 million shares—far below the 65-day average of 115.3 million shares.
This isn't a sharp drop on high volume, but a low-volume decline in shadow mode. A sharp drop on high volume means panic selling is emerging, often near a short-term bottom; Shrinking volume and a bearish decline means buyers are retreating all the way; no one wants to buy, and the bottom signal has not yet appeared.
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The shorts have already surrounded the table
As of July 15, short positions reached 165 million shares, a sharp 48% increase quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 25.55% of the free float. Reuters cited Ortex data showing about 360 million shares lent out, accounting for 56% of the outstanding float. Short sellers accumulated a book profit of about $15.5 billion. The stock price has been halved, but the bears not only haven't withdrawn but are increasing their positions—they are not betting on a pullback, but on a second round of decline after the lock-up is lifted.
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Numbers speak for themselves
Currently, there are about 646 million shares in circulation, with 911.5 million unlocked shares, which is 1.41 times the circulating shares and 40% more than the tradable shares in the market. This is 15.5 times the total trading volume on July 31 and 7.9 times the 65-day average.
Sell all ≠ unlocked. But even if only 10% cashed out, that's 91.15 million shares, 55% higher than the total turnover on July 31, equivalent to about $9.88 billion; even just 5% would still be 45 million shares, nearly half of the day's trading volume. In a shrinking market, this incremental growth is enough to flip the table.
There is a price trigger clause—within the first 10 trading days of the earnings report, at least 5 days must close above $175.50, unlocking an additional 455.8 million shares. The current stock price is $108, and this stock has expired. On August 6, the confirmed deal was these 911.5 million shares.
Good news, but not much.
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Does the bull still have a card left? Yes, the cards are in the hands of the bears
25% of the circulating position is shorted. If the earnings report greatly exceeds expectations and triggers short covering, the recovering itself is forced buying, and the circulating position is small, so the short squeeze rebound can be very strong.
Three types of scripts:
1. Better than expected + unlocked, moderate digestion→ sharp rise and short squeeze
2. Decent data but unclear guidance→ surging and then pulling back, continuing trading pressure to unlock restrictions
3. Below expectations + insider share reductions → below issue price, even hitting new lows
In my personal judgment, the second option is the most probable. Starlink's fundamentals should be solid, but the pace of burning money won't change qualitatively within a month. The management's stance is likely still to be "sustained investment for the future." After hearing this, the market's attention quickly shifted back to the 100 billion unlocking event.
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SPCX fell from 225 to 108, halved, but the chip risk is not fully released. Over the past month, the stock price has been held up by limited circulation, with a distorted supply-demand relationship. After August 6, this restriction was truly lifted for the first time.
What determines stock prices is no longer how sexy Mars colonization is, but two very practical things:
Insiders are willing to sell at certain prices, and outside funds are willing to buy at certain positions.
Financial reports determine whether the market is willing to buy, and unlocking determines how much the market must receive. #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
South Korea's KOSPI index surged 14% intraday, triggering the market circuit breaker mechanism and recording the largest intraday gain in history. SK Hynix hit the 30% daily limit, Samsung Electronics surged over 25%, and the two storage giants directly drove the index to rebound. This extreme market is not a sudden fundamental shift, but rather a short covering rally following previous consecutive sharp declines and the concentrated clearing of leveraged selling pressure. Meanwhile, expectations for AI storage demand are warming, driving a recovery in risk asset sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region.
1. The three core underlying logics of this round of surge
1. Panic selling pressure has been completely cleared, and bears are focusing on squeezing short positions
Previously, Korean stocks suffered consecutive sharp declines, with many leveraged accounts facing forced liquidations and panicked chip panic fleeing. When panic selling is mostly digested, a small amount of buying can quickly push the index up, forming a retaliatory V-shaped rebound. South Korean retail investors are active in both the stock and crypto markets, and their risk appetite serves as an important indicator for observing the sentiment of Asian speculative funds.
2. Pessimistic expectations for the AI storage industry chain recover
The Korean stock market is highly tied to the memory chip sector, with Samsung and SK Hynix occupying core global HBM production capacity. Earnings reports from US tech giants confirm the resilience of AI capital expenditure, with funds repricing storage cycles. The recovery in AI hardware prosperity will indirectly affect global technology risk assets.
3. Dual support from industrial capital + regulatory policies
The chairman of SK Group personally stepped in to increase his holdings in SK Hynix, conveying confidence at the industry level; South Korean regulators have simultaneously tightened leveraged ETF rules to curb disorderly crowding and ease market panic over ongoing deleveraging.
2. Two-layer transmission paths: Understanding the impact on Bitcoin
✅ Short-term sentiment is positive
Risk assets in the Asia-Pacific region collectively rebounded, and market risk appetite rose, providing short-term sentiment support for Bitcoin. South Korean retail investors are an important source of incremental capital in the crypto market. With stock market panic easing, funds will not blindly flee all risk assets.
⚠️ Medium- and long-term hidden risks of capital diversion
When the stock market continues to generate profits, speculative funds favoring high volatility will flow back into the stock market from the crypto market, creating a seesaw effect. We must face reality: this round of rebound is essentially a recovery after overselling, not the start of a new long-term bull market; its sustainability needs to be continuously verified.
3. Two common pitfalls traders fall into
1. Do not equate a rebound directly with a trend reversal
The core driving force behind the surge is short covering, not a continuous influx of new growth line funds. Historically, many of these extreme V-shaped rebounds have been pulse-like one-day rallies, blindly chasing highs with extremely poor profit-loss ratios.
2. Do not rely solely on the Korean stock market to decide when opening positions
The core of Bitcoin's medium- to long-term pricing remains anchored to the Fed's interest rate path, Treasury yields, and dollar liquidity. Regional stock market sentiment can only affect short-term fluctuations and cannot reverse major trends.$DRAM $LINK $DOGE $BICO $1000PEPE $KORU $QQQ $MU $WLD $GIGGLE ##财报观察员: Four draws this week, with Circle as the grand finale
Before the bell for Circle's IPO even rings, the market has already locked its eyes on the stablecoin track. Thursday's grand finale earnings call will most likely discuss USDC's reserve returns and compliance progress, but the real undercurrent lies in the market — whenever this kind of "heavyweight narrative" approaches, funds start adjusting ahead of the news. The ETH market I was watching had an unusual order this morning: at the 1898.5 level, a buy was repeatedly taken and then replaced, as if a hand was deliberately maintaining some kind of balance. This price level is precisely the confirmation point for the most recent trend reversal on the 1-hour chart, while the 4-hour level confirmed a rebound after a downward breakout at 1820.61. The two forces are battling within this narrow range, making me feel that today's midday market won't be too quiet.
Let's first talk about the strange aspects of this listing. Since 11:30 a.m., hundreds of buy orders have been placed below 1898.5 every few minutes, supporting the bottom, but every time the price touches 1899, it is immediately pushed back. Between 1902 and 1905, dense sell orders hang like a transparent wall. This pattern of "unlimited connections below, unlimited pressure above" is usually not a setup for retail investors to set up—it's more like institutions quietly building positions in a certain direction by exploiting the liquidity vacuum before earnings reports. Combined with the 4-hour level K-line that broke downward, the break below 1820.61 did not trigger panic selling; instead, mild buying near 1830 appeared, indicating that bears are not planning a full entry and are more testing how many chips below are willing to sell.
Next, let's look at changes in open interest. Prices are declining, but total open interest is shrinking simultaneously. This is not the pattern of short sellers adding positions and dumping the market, but rather that both bulls and bears are actively exiting. Although the rate is at the high 0.0001 percentile, its absolute value is still very low, indicating that leveraged funds are not fanatical but rather cautious. This combination of "price drops, reduced holdings, stable rates" reminds me of a typical gathering before a major event last year—everyone was waiting for a trigger, and no one wanted to bet heavily first. Circle's earnings report is a potential trigger, but its impact path is not direct ETH rally; rather, it is transmitted through liquidity forecasting in the stablecoin market. If USDC's reserve returns exceed expectations, funds may temporarily shift from risk assets to stablecoin wealth management, which is a short-term negative for ETH; But if management sends signals that more compliant licenses are being implemented, it will actually boost market confidence in on-chain liquidity, turning into a medium-term positive development.
Back to the market itself, the 1898.5 confirmation point at the 1-hour level is quite interesting. It is the first breakout of a high after a wave of decline; although the magnitude is not large, it at least indicates that short-term bear strength is waning. However, the 4-hour break at 1820.61 is like a knife hanging overhead; as long as the price rebounds above 1900 and fails to hold steady, this knife could fall again at any time. What I'm most concerned about now is whether the sell wall from 1902 to 1905 will be worn down by time—if the afternoon's trading volume can keep expanding and gradually erodes this wall, then the buying interest is real; If the price only repeatedly tests and then pulls back on shrinking volume, it is most likely a bullish trap.
From a volatility perspective, the contraction at the 4-hour level has lasted for more than a dozen cycles, while the 1-hour level has just returned to normal volatility. This mismatch in large-scale cycle volatility often signals that a market reversal window is approaching. I don't like using the vague term "market reversal," but the fact is: when prices rub back and forth within an increasingly narrow box and are catalyzed by certain events like earnings reports, direction selection is often completed within the next 24 hours. My simulation path is as follows: if the price first breaks above 1905 and volume matches, I will test going long near 1908, setting my stop loss at 1895—because that is the most traded area this morning, and a break below it means the buying has completely failed; My target is 1925, which is the early trapped zone at the 4-hour level. If stagflation occurs near 1925, I will cut my position by half and keep the rest at 1938. Conversely, if the price falls below 1890 and open interest continues to decline, I will give up going long and instead wait for the 1820 to 1830 range—if Circle's earnings trigger liquidity panic, the price could plunge directly toward the 1800 round, but I do not recommend shorting because below that level is strong 4-hour support, which can easily be proven wrong by a rapid rebound.
Another detail worth noting: in today's ETH transaction distribution, the proportion of large orders is significantly higher than in the past three days, but the intervals between each large order have been extended. This indicates that funds are building positions in batches, rather than going all-in all at once. This approach usually appears in the early stages of institutional rebalancing—they don't care about waiting a few more hours, only whether the average cost is low enough. If before 2 p.m., the 1898.5 level shows a pattern similar to the morning's "repeatedly eating up and then hanging up" pattern, I would think the same group of funds is supporting the market, and the short-term bottom might be nearby. But if this level is broken through decisively and without a rebound, it means the support funds have withdrawn, and the real battlefield below 1830 is the real battleground.
Circle's financial report also has a hidden highlight: whether it will announce partnerships with more traditional financial institutions. If statements like "a major bank will use USDC for cross-border settlement" appear during the call, it is expected to directly boost ETH's on-chain activity, since a large amount of USDC's underlying settlements occur on the Ethereum network. This kind of news spreads faster than ordinary positive news because funds rush into ETH to jump in immediately. So my strategy today isn't to stick to a single direction, but to closely monitor the first wave of movement after the news release—if the price surges more than 1.5% within fifteen minutes of the earnings release, accompanied by a simultaneous rate increase, I will chase in; If it's just a small fluctuation followed by a pullback, it means the market has already priced in expectations in advance, and should be wary of a decline where "all the good news has been exhausted."
#财报观察员: Four draws this week, with Circle as the grand finale