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Sailor said "trust remains unchanged" despite his third Bitcoin sale this year. What signals does the strategic sale of 1,638 BTC signal to the market? Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), led by Michael Sailor, sold Bitcoin for the third time this year. According to the disclosure, the volume sold this time is 1,638 BTC, worth about $104.7 million. What is even more noteworthy is that this move came amid six consecutive weeks without any new BTC purchase announcements. The cumulative sales volume for 2026 has increased to a total of 5,258 BTC. Sailor emphasized that "our shared trust in Bitcoin remains unchanged" for this sale. This event means more than just a reduction in holdings. Strategy has long been recognized in the market as a symbolic company of the "buy-and-hold" strategy. The company's BTC selling was an action that was almost unheard of until 2025. Therefore, whether this sale is for corporate cash flow management, to fulfill specific obligations, or for more sophisticated financial Institutional money is still flowing into crypto, and AI remains one of the strongest themes in tech. Markets also continue to expect the Fed to stay supportive of risk assets.
Yet $BTC and $ETH are soft, Wall Street is choppy, and chip stocks like $SNDK, $SKHYNIX, and $MU are under pressure.
The reason is simple: most of the good news was already priced in.
$SNDK posted strong earnings, but expectations were even higher. When guidance failed to exceed those lofty expectations, the market responded with a classic "sell the news" reaction, dragging memory stocks lower.
Crypto is in a similar position. ETF inflows and institutional demand remain long-term positives, but after a strong rally, investors are taking profits and waiting for the next catalyst. Capital has become far more selective.
Wall Street is also rotating out of crowded AI and tech trades into more defensive sectors. This isn't a breakdown in fundamentals—it's a reset in expectations.
If macro conditions continue to improve and institutional inflows remain steady, this consolidation could become the foundation for the next move higher.
#DailyOrbitI think BTC and $ETH are about to plunge. There are several variables now: 1. The bill on August 7th—personally, I think it won't pass. The hype around this narrative has already been realized in the price rise a few days ago, and funds usually withdraw quickly, so whether the news on August 7th comes through or not, a crash is likely. 2. The Federal Reserve said it plans to raise rates in September. This hype is uncertain because recent data doesn't support a rate hike, increasing volatility. 3. The non-farm payroll data is expected to be a surprise, usually opposite to the small non-farm data on Wednesday, because there is talk of data revisions by the Fed. These are just my personal guesses. Anyway, Friday should be turbulent, so everyone should manage risk well. $BTC $ETH #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #SanDisk earnings beat expectations on both fronts, with an additional $14 billion buyback authorization $SKHY
The storage sector remains under pressure, with the recent rebound failing to gain traction.
The short position opened near 1100 on $SKHY is still active, with the price now around 1051–1056. The 1070–1050 area was the first major support zone, and price has now entered it. A break below could keep the current downtrend intact.
The thesis remains unchanged:
Positive news appears to have been fully priced in.
The sector has failed to rally despite strong fundamentals.
The broader downtrend remains intact, with support levels being tested.
Position update: ✔ Short opened near 1100
✔ Current price around 1056
✔ Stop loss at 1132
✔ Downside target remains near 1012
At current levels, I’m not adding new shorts. The focus is on managing the existing position and tightening risk as profits increase.
The trade is not a bet against the long-term storage story—it’s a bet that the post-earnings rebound has failed after optimism was already priced in.$ETH Staking Volume Hits All-Time High: 34% of Tokens Locked Signals Behind Market Signals The latest on-chain data shows that Ethereum staking volume has reached an all-time high. Currently, about 34.45% of ETH is locked in the network, with total staked exceeding 41.57 million. Against the backdrop of Ethereum staking rates surpassing one-third, the following summarizes the distribution of core data and the underlying logic analysis. 1. Overview of Core Staking Data Total Staked Amount: 41.57 million ETH Total Staked Ratio: 34.45% (all-time high) Total Staking Market Cap: approximately $79.21 billion Current Annualized Yield (APY): 2.61% Over the past 30 days, Ethereum's staking ratio has increased by 3.29%. This indicates that even during market volatility, long-term funds continue to enter and lock in to generate interest. 2. Staking Share Top 5 Entities Distribution From the concentration of validator nodes, the main staking custodians are as follows: Lido Finance: 18.87% (decentralized liquid staking), Binance: 7.89% (centralized exchange staking), ether.fi: 4.01% (decentralized restaking), Coinbase: 3.88% (compliant exchange staking), Kraken: 3.32% (established exchange staking), and Figment (3.30%) and Blockdaemon (2.5%)#SanDisk's earnings beat expectations with an additional $14 billion buyback authorization
SanDisk delivered strong earnings, yet the stock fell more than 15%—a reminder that markets trade on expectations, not just results.
Revenue came in at $8.97B, beating the $8.48B consensus, while EPS also topped estimates. The company also approved an additional $14B share buyback, bringing total buyback authorization to $15.5B.
So why the sell-off?
The main issue was forward guidance. Q1 revenue guidance came in below Wall Street's expectations, and after the stock's massive rally over the past year, investors were expecting an even bigger surprise. When those expectations weren't met, the market responded with a classic "sell the news" reaction.
The AI storage story remains intact, but elevated valuations left little room for disappointment. Strong fundamentals don't always guarantee a higher stock price when expectations are already priced in.
Good earnings don't always mean a rising stock—sometimes expectations matter more than the numbers.In just half a year, it has nearly increased tenfold; the X‑Layer ecosystem has clearly been accelerating recently.
According to data disclosed by OKX Wallet, X‑Layer's DeFi locked value has surpassed $100 million, growing nearly tenfold in half a year.
The stablecoin scale has surged to $2 billion, directly entering the global top ten public chains, with a cumulative 4.2 million active addresses and 400 million on-chain transactions.
However, I noticed a very realistic point:
Currently, DeFi's TVL accounts for only 5% of the total on-chain stablecoin volume.
A large amount of funds are just staying on this chain and have not truly flowed into various DeFi applications.
So the key focus going forward is very clear.
Whether reliable projects can be attracted, generate real transactions, and retain long-term liquidity is the core.
This also determines whether the current hype is just impressive surface data or if X‑Layer is truly reaching an ecological turning point $OKB Samsung and SK Hynix Sell-Off: Panic or Opportunity?
Samsung and SK Hynix have seen sharp declines in recent days, raising a key question: is this the peak, or an emotional overreaction?
Goldman Sachs remains constructive, expecting the HBM market to grow significantly next year, while reports suggest SK Hynix may announce a share buyback soon.
This creates an interesting divergence: stock prices are falling, yet institutions remain optimistic and management is preparing shareholder-friendly actions.
My view is simple: a sell-off driven by sentiment is very different from one driven by deteriorating fundamentals. The memory and AI storage story hasn't disappeared—a pullback doesn't automatically mean the investment thesis is broken.
The real question isn't whether prices fell, but why they fell.Recently, BTC's directional volatility has continued to be compressed, with the price spending most of the time oscillating inefficiently within a narrow range. At the current position, whether going long or short directly is essentially a preemptive bet on the next trend choice. Therefore, I will temporarily reduce BTC trading and shift more attention to the US tech sector and changes in risk appetite.
From a medium-term perspective, I maintain a cautiously bearish view on BTC's next directional move. Although spot ETF funds have recently flowed back in, and there have been some phased macro and geopolitical positives, these factors currently only provide support at the lower end of the price without significantly driving trading activity or expanding trend momentum.
From a market psychology standpoint, as BTC prices gradually rise, some investors will choose to wait for a deeper pullback before establishing long positions. Until a clear breakout occurs, this type of cautious capital will not immediately convert into active buying, so the market may continue to maintain low volatility and inefficient operation.
However, a price decline does not necessarily mean liquidity improves. A rapid drop may attract bottom-fishing funds but can also trigger stop-losses, liquidations, and market maker order withdrawals, causing volume to rise but market depth to further deteriorate. Only when the price completes concentrated deleveraging, spot buying effectively supports the market, and key supports are reclaimed can it be said that the decline has improved the chip structure and formed a truly valuable low-level area.
Therefore, my current bearish view is only a directional hypothesis and will not be a reason to open positions prematurely. I will continue to adhere to the breakout trading principle: only consider shorting with the trend if BTC breaks key support with volume, then rebounds with reduced volume but fails to reclaim it.
If BTC instead breaks above resistance with volume and successfully holds after a pullback, even if this contradicts my medium-term expectation, I will respect the actual price structure and no longer short against the trend.
At this stage, the most important thing is not to prematurely judge that the next trend must be downward, but to wait for the market to prove the direction through volume, closing position, and pullback results. Strategically, a bearish bias can be maintained, but tactically, neutrality must be preserved until a true downward breakout is confirmed. $BTC #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Strong Earnings, Weak Price Action: Why Is $SNDK Falling?
Despite reporting strong earnings, $SNDK continues to decline. As of 17:06 Beijing time, it was trading around $1,350.50, down roughly 5.4% on the day.
Quarterly revenue reached $8.97 billion, up 51% QoQ, and the company approved an additional $14 billion share buyback. On paper, the results were impressive.
However, the market appears to have already priced in much of the optimism. While buybacks can support the stock, they may not be enough to meet elevated investor expectations.
For now, I'd rather wait for the post-earnings volatility to settle than chase the move.
#SanDiskEarningsBeatExpectations #Added$14BBuybackAuthorization #USStockEarnings #AIStorage #TechForOrdinaryPeopleStrong proof under the AI storage super cycle, but a sharp drop after hours due to guidance falling short of extremely high expectations.
What exactly is strong about this earnings report? What does the buyback mean? Why did the guidance disappoint investors? How does the NBM long-term contract model change the game rules of the storage industry? Here is an in-depth analysis.
1. Core Data: Historic-level explosion, pricing power and AI demand resonance
Q4 Highlights (mainly non-GAAP):
Revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, up 51% quarter-over-quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations (around $8.4-8.5 billion range).
Adjusted EPS of $39.25, significantly exceeding expectations (around $34.4-35).
Adjusted gross margin reached 84.6% (only about 26% in the same period last year, 78.4% last quarter), up more than 6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter.
GAAP net profit about $6.9 billion (almost a loss in the same period last year).
Full year performance: Fiscal 2026 revenue $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year; GAAP net profit $11.43 billion.
Growth structure is clear: About one-third of quarter-over-quarter revenue growth comes from shipment volume increase, two-thirds from price increases. This directly reflects the strong return of NAND chip pricing power.
Business breakdown further illustrates the issue:
Data Center: Single quarter revenue about $2.98 billion, up 103% quarter-over-quarter, nearly 13 times year-over-year growth (1298%), has become a core growth pillar, accounting for over one-third from a low base.
Edge Computing: Still the largest revenue source, about $5.43 billion, up 48% quarter-over-quarter, up 392% year-over-year.
Consumer business: Clearly under pressure, about $556 million, down about 32% quarter-over-quarter.
AI inference and enterprise SSD demand (especially QLC Stargate platform ramp-up) are direct drivers of data center explosion. SanDisk management emphasizes that data center has become a "key growth pillar."
2. $14 Billion Buyback: Confidence and capital return amid abundant cash flow
About $4.5 billion buyback executed in Q4 (about 2.836 million shares). The board added $14 billion authorization on this basis, bringing total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion. Since spin-off independence, cumulative buyback authorization has reached about $20 billion scale.
Behind this is a solid financial foundation:
Q4 operating cash flow exceeded $7.1 billion, adjusted free cash flow about $5 billion (FCF margin about 56%).
Clean balance sheet: debt cleared, cash and equivalents about $4.76 billion.
Capital allocation priorities clear: priority to continuous investment in business growth and technology (BiCS8 has become mainstream, BiCS10 announced), then returning cash to shareholders through buybacks. Management clearly states current preference for buybacks over dividends (more tax efficient).
After a significant stock price correction and rapid valuation decline, large-scale buybacks are both "real money" conveying long-term confidence and potential support for the stock price. It also indirectly confirms the company's high confidence in future cash flow generation ability.
3. Real Structural Change: NBM Long-term Contracts Lock in Future for Years
More important than single quarter numbers is the evolution of the business model. SanDisk is vigorously promoting the "New Business Model" (NBM)—long-term supply agreements with multi-year volume locks + pricing mechanisms + financial guarantees—restructuring the strong cyclicality of the NAND industry.
Latest progress:
Agreements signed with 8 data center and edge customers (5 new since April earnings, including 3 new customers and 2 expansions).
Weighted average term over 4 years (up to 5 years max).
Minimum committed revenue reaches $93.9 billion (calculated at floor price), customers provide about $16.5 billion financial guarantees (cash deposits + financial instruments).
Covers over 50% of shipment bits for fiscal 2027, about two-thirds for fiscal 2028.
Remaining performance obligations (RPO) after including latest agreements can reach about $91.1 billion scale.
Pricing mechanism is "fixed + floating" (floating part has floor and ceiling), even at floor price can maintain attractive gross margin (management guidance about 80%).
This is equivalent to installing an "income and profit floor" for the company, greatly enhancing visibility and anti-cycle resilience, while still retaining upside pricing space.
This is a rare "systematic shift from quarterly spot transactions to multi-year strategic locking" in the storage industry. Management says NBM is rapidly becoming the main business model.#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Market Environment & Liquidity
The market is caught in a structural tug-of-war. Stablecoin liquidity is contracting sharply, with USDT supply dropping roughly $4B over 60 days to October 2025 lows, suppressing recovery momentum. At the same time, exchange inflows exceed 14,000 BTC in five days, increasing sell-side pressure. Despite this, $ETH continues attracting institutional demand through ETF inflows, while $SOL and $XRP are showing relative strength by holding above key moving averages.
Institutional vs. Retail Positioning
Institutional capital continues rotating into regulated investment products and high-conviction assets. Besides $BTC and $ETH, accumulation is visible in $LINK, $UNI, $AAVE, $MKR, $LDO, and $SNX, supported by improving DeFi activity and rising total value locked. On the retail side, $DOGE and $SHIB continue to experience capital outflows.
Derivatives markets currently show negative funding rates across $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $MATIC, $AVAX, $DOT, and $APT, a contrarian signal that has historically preceded short-term recoveries. Meanwhile, $ARB and $OP are trading near their realized prices, suggesting potential downside support, while $RNDR and $FET continue benefiting from the AI narrative.
Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios
A bullish outcome remains possible if stablecoin liquidity begins expanding again and ETF inflows remain strong. In that case, $BTC could reclaim higher resistance levels, with $SOL and $AVAX potentially leading the next leg of the altcoin recovery.
A bearish scenario would emerge if liquidity continues shrinking and macro or regulatory pressures intensify. That could weigh on $BTC, $ETH, $LINK, and the broader altcoin market as correlations remain elevated.
Key Takeaway
The most important metric to monitor is the 60-day stablecoin liquidity trend, as it remains a leading indicator of market strength. Traders should also keep a close watch on options open interest around major strike prices, as weakening positioning could signal fading market conviction.
#DailyOrbit A lot of people are asking how far $SPCX could fall after the unlock.
Will it immediately break below 100? Probably not.
Although 910 million shares are becoming unlocked, that doesn't mean they'll all be sold at once. Increased float also means more market participants competing for those shares.
The price already dropped to around 108 before the open, but the real test begins once regular trading starts. Expect heightened volatility and a battle between buyers and sellers.
If the price falls sharply, there will likely be plenty of voices calling it a buying opportunity.
Personally, I don't think this should be judged based on a single trading session. The bigger picture matters.
With additional unlocks scheduled for late August and early September, supply pressure isn't over yet. If those unlocks continue to weigh on sentiment, a break below key support becomes more likely over time.
Patience is key—watch how the market absorbs the new supply before drawing conclusions.
#DailyOrbit I think Bitcoin and Ethereum are about to plunge. There are a few variables now: First, the bill on August 7th—personally, I think it won't pass. The hype around this narrative has already been realized in the price surge a few days ago, and funds usually withdraw quickly, so whether the news on August 7th comes through or not, a crash is likely. Second, the Federal Reserve said it is preparing to raise interest rates in September. This speculation is uncertain because recent data does not support a rate hike, which increases volatility. Third, the non-farm payroll data is expected to be a surprise, usually opposite to the small non-farm data on Wednesday, because there is a notion that Fed data undergoes revisions. These are just my personal guesses. Anyway, Friday should be turbulent, so everyone should manage their risk well. BTW, behind the scenes, the issuance reduction proposal is explicitly motivated by the goal of reducing the number of validators on Ethereum.
If the public justifications seem unusual, it’s because the real motivations are reportedly discussed more privately. The arguments presented publicly focus on factors like monetary policy, ETH’s store-of-value properties, and long-term network sustainability.Everyone is watching the unlock—but the more important question is how much of that risk has already been priced in?
For traders watching $SPCX , the 100 level remains a key support zone. From current levels around 110, that implies roughly another 9–10% downside if selling continues.
IPO unlocks often create additional selling pressure as early investors gain liquidity. However, history also shows that unlock events don't always lead to prolonged declines—especially when expectations are already reflected in the price.
Here's the current setup:
• The stock has already retraced 15.4%, falling from 130 to 110.
• After a brief two-day rebound, earnings sparked a short-lived rally before sellers regained control, pushing the price sharply lower with little meaningful support.
• That's a significant move in a short period, and markets rarely trend in one direction indefinitely.
Could the unlock trigger more downside? Absolutely.
But unless selling pressure accelerates materially, a meaningful portion of the near-term risk may already be priced in. If the company's fundamentals remain intact and institutional or index-related demand emerges, buyers could begin stepping back into the market.
#DailyOrbit Institutional money is still flowing into crypto. The AI narrative remains one of the biggest themes in technology, and markets still expect the Fed to remain supportive of risk assets.
Yet $BTC and $ETH are showing weakness, Wall Street remains choppy, and semiconductor names like $SNDK and $SKHYNIX are under pressure.
The reason is simple: much of the positive news was already priced in.
Take semiconductors. $SNDK delivered a strong earnings report, but after months of intense AI hype, a simple earnings beat was no longer enough. Expectations had become extremely high. When guidance failed to exceed those expectations, the market reacted with a classic “sell the news” move, weighing on memory stocks like $SKHYNIX and $MU.
In Korea, weakness in $SKHYNIX added further pressure. Tech stocks are also experiencing some short-term deleveraging. Sentiment has cooled, even though the long-term AI chip story remains intact.
Crypto is facing a similar setup. ETF inflows and institutional demand remain strong long term, but after a major rally, investors are taking profits and waiting for the next catalyst. Capital is becoming more selective.
Wall Street is seeing the same rotation. Money is moving away from crowded AI and tech trades toward defensive and value sectors. Leaders are under pressure despite a relatively stable macro environment.
This is not a breakdown in fundamentals. It is a reset in expectations and a period of profit-taking.
If macro conditions continue improving and institutional flows remain consistent, this could be a healthy consolidation phase before the next move higher.
#DailyOrbit There's something on-chain that's quite chilling: $DOGE has a circulating supply of over 155 billion coins, with a market cap of only about $10.8 billion right now, but a significant portion of the tokens have been sitting dormant in addresses for three to four years without moving. On August 6, DOGE was priced at $0.0696, dropping nearly 1% in 24 hours, with resistance at $0.0708 and the $0.068 support level having been stepped on multiple times. The overall market isn't great either—BTC is stuck around $65,000, ETH at $1,896, SOL at $77.5, and the whole market looks like it hasn't woken up yet. But ironically, in this stagnant environment, the biggest concern isn't the price action, but those silent addresses.
Who are these people? Dead or believers? Honestly, both exist. Back in 2014, people mining DOGE on home computers had a cost of less than $0.001 per coin; many lost their private keys, threw away their hard drives, or disappeared. Those coins are effectively permanently locked, which is actually positive, acting as a form of implicit deflation. But the truly scary group is the other kind—the coins are still there, the people are alive, but they don't check the market. Their cost might be $0.003 or $0.005, and now at $0.07, that's still a twentyfold profit for them. Looking at BTC this year, over 100,000 old coins that had been dormant for five to fifteen years woke up in the first five months of 2026, worth $7.6 billion, and every movement adds selling pressure to the market. If this batch of silent DOGE holders ever collectively wakes up, a market with a daily volume of only $500 million simply can't absorb even a tenth of that volume.
So, I think watching DOGE is never about whether Musk tweets or not, but about monitoring any unusual activity from old addresses on-chain. Whether $0.068 holds is a technical matter, but the movement of those dormant coins is the real lifeline of this dog. They haven't woken up yet, so let them keep sleeping—the market's biggest fear is waking them up.Controversial opinion: The real killer of the altcoin season is not the market.
It's the project teams themselves.
Many people are still asking:
When will the altcoin season come?
But I increasingly feel
the question might be asked wrong.
The real question should be:
Why are more and more altcoins, even when they rise, no one willing to hold long-term?
Looking back at 2017.
A whitepaper.
A concept.
Could attract countless funds.
In 2021.
A new sector.
Could spawn dozens of projects with market caps over ten billion.
Why?
Because at that time the market believed:
The future would be realized.
But now.
The market starts to believe something else.
Token does not equal value.
In the past few years.
Retail investors have seen too many stories.
AI.
GameFi.
SocialFi.
RWA.
DePIN.
Every sector has had star projects.
And many that started high and fell low.
So the market has changed.
Today, when a project launches.
The first reaction of retail investors is no longer:
How many times will it rise?
But:
When is the unlock?
How much does VC hold?
How much does the team hold?
How many tokens will be sold after one year?
Why?
Because everyone finally starts to realize:
What really affects price,
Is not just demand.
But also supply.
This is also why.
Many people feel:
Making money this round is getting harder.
Not because there are no hot topics.
But because:
The market starts to price "ability to deliver" rather than "PPT".
Before.
A story could rise for a year.
Now.
A story might only rise for a day.
Therefore.
I increasingly feel.
The next truly successful projects,
Might not be those who tell the best stories.
But those who:
Truly make users willing to stay.
Truly generate revenue for the protocol.
Truly enable Token value capture.
Crypto hasn't changed.
The market hasn't changed.
What has changed is the investors.
After going through several cycles.
More and more people begin to understand:
Narratives without demand are ultimately just narratives.
What can truly survive cycles,
Are always those projects that have users, paying customers, and continuous development.
Finally, a question:
If today you could only choose one criterion to judge a project.
Would you choose:
Narrative, users, revenue, or Token economic model?
Why? Institutional money is still flowing into crypto. The AI narrative remains one of the biggest themes in technology, and markets still expect the Fed to remain supportive of risk assets.
Yet $BTC and $ETH are showing weakness, Wall Street remains choppy, and semiconductor names like $SNDK and $SKHYNIX are under pressure.
The reason is simple: much of the positive news was already priced in.
Take semiconductors. $SNDK delivered a strong earnings report, but after months of intense AI hype, a simple earnings beat was no longer enough. Expectations had become extremely high. When guidance failed to exceed those expectations, the market reacted with a classic “sell the news” move, weighing on memory stocks like $SKHYNIX and $MU.
In Korea, weakness in $SKHYNIX added further pressure. Tech stocks are also experiencing some short-term deleveraging. Sentiment has cooled, even though the long-term AI chip story remains intact.
Crypto is facing a similar setup. ETF inflows and institutional demand remain strong long term, but after a major rally, investors are taking profits and waiting for the next catalyst. Capital is becoming more selective.
Wall Street is seeing the same rotation. Money is moving away from crowded AI and tech trades toward defensive and value sectors. Leaders are under pressure despite a relatively stable macro environment.
This is not a breakdown in fundamentals. It is a reset in expectations and a period of profit-taking.
If macro conditions continue improving and institutional flows remain consistent, this could be a healthy consolidation phase before the next move higher.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYVoteMathBitcoin continues to consolidate within the $62,000 to $65,000 range, with the technical structure shaped by repeated tests of the upper boundary and solid defense of the mid-range. 📊 Spot ETF capital flows have remained positive until early August, with recent net inflows exceeding $600 million, effectively offsetting selling pressure from long-term holders. Regarding funding rates in major perpetual contract markets, BTC is close to neutral or slightly negative, while ETH is slightly positive, indicating limited leverage overheating. Open interest remains below the peak of the previous cycle, and the total stablecoin supply has contracted to about $299 billion, meaning incremental liquidity available to drive market expansion is decreasing.
🧠 Smart money is clearly focused on large-cap assets. Institutional funds prioritize BTC and ETH, with ETH showing relative strength against BTC. SOL, XRP, BNB, and LINK maintain narrow oscillations; DeFi representatives like AAVE and some selected Layer-2 tokens such as ARB still have low trading volumes. HYPE and RWA-related assets like ONDO have received selective attention but have not yet formed broad capital rotation.
🚀 The bullish scenario depends on two points: whether ETF accumulation can continue, and whether the price can decisively close above $65,000 — which would drive the market to reprice to a higher range. A more cautious path is: if stablecoins continue to contract, or if the price breaks below the $62,000 support amid September policy uncertainties, downside risks will significantly increase. Current core risks also include orderI am Cige. The ADP employment data has been released, showing an increase of only 44,000, below the expected 75,000, marking the lowest in six months. The market's previous logic of "employment resilience supporting high interest rates" is loosening, but this data alone is not enough to reverse the rate hike expectations.
The ADP data indeed weakens some reasons for rate hikes; cooling employment means weaker economic momentum and less necessity to continue tightening policies. However, CME data still shows over a 50% chance of a rate hike in September, and there is still a long way before pricing in rate cuts. Before the nonfarm payroll data, the market will not bet unilaterally in any direction; ADP's influence is limited, and Friday's nonfarm data is the real test. Meanwhile, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are widening, with the hawks focused on inflation and the doves focused on employment. Inflation remains high while employment cools down, giving two opposing policy signals, and the market must face both possibilities. If the nonfarm data is also weaker than expected, the probability of a September rate hike will significantly decline, benefiting risk assets in the short term. If the nonfarm data is unexpectedly strong, rate hike expectations will surge again, putting pressure on risk assets.
For BTC, the core market narrative over the past three months has been "strong employment + high inflation = higher interest rates." If employment starts to weaken, the expectation of rising rates will marginally ease. BTC is very sensitive to rate expectations, and weak employment data will temporarily ease rate hike anxiety. But the key variable has shifted from just employment data to whether cooling employment can outweigh inflation pressure. Friday's nonfarm and next week's CPI will continue to determine September's policy pricing.
In terms of trading, after the ADP data release, BTC continued to oscillate around 64,000 without choosing a direction. Before Friday's nonfarm, it is recommended to maintain a light position and observe, not to bet on direction prematurely. CPI is the real decision point; nonfarm is just a preliminary battle. Wait for both nonfarm and CPI data to be released before making directional decisions; the current market is not worth heavy risk-taking.
Cige has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Everyone is watching the unlock—but the more important question is how much of that risk has already been priced in?
For traders watching $SPCX , the 100 level remains a key support zone. From current levels around 110, that implies roughly another 9–10% downside if selling continues.
IPO unlocks often create additional selling pressure as early investors gain liquidity. However, history also shows that unlock events don't always lead to prolonged declines—especially when expectations are already reflected in the price.
Here's the current setup:
• The stock has already retraced 15.4%, falling from 130 to 110.
• After a brief two-day rebound, earnings sparked a short-lived rally before sellers regained control, pushing the price sharply lower with little meaningful support.
• That's a significant move in a short period, and markets rarely trend in one direction indefinitely.
Could the unlock trigger more downside? Absolutely.
But unless selling pressure accelerates materially, a meaningful portion of the near-term risk may already be priced in. If the company's fundamentals remain intact and institutional or index-related demand emerges, buyers could begin stepping back into the market.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Nasdaq launches a 23-hour trading system.
Previously trading US stocks:
Work during the day, watch the market at night.
From now on:
Watch US stocks during the day, watch US stocks at night, and keep watching US stocks at midnight. 😂
South Korea restricts leverage, originally thought retail investors would calm down.
But it just became a bigger casino.
In the past 10 days, South Korean funds have been pouring crazily into US leveraged ETFs, with the trading volume of 3x long semiconductor ETFs even reaching 9 times that of Micron ($MU).
The biggest problem for AI semiconductors now is not demand, but overcrowded capital.
$SNDK: The sharp drop is more about expectation killing, don’t chase short-term, consider when it stabilizes around 130.
$MU: The logic is more solid, watch for pullbacks.
$SPX: Don’t chase highs, wait for pullback confirmation, survive first in the leverage era. 😂$SNDK $SPCX Pretty interesting to see $BTC spot CVD now outpacing perp CVD.
Spot has pushed beyond its previous high while perpetuals are still trading below theirs. This helps explain why we haven’t seen the same continued cascade of liquidation flushes that followed previous range breakdowns.
It doesn’t necessarily mean the lows are fully protected. If spot demand begins fading, price can still move lower.
But as long as spot buying continues to strengthen, corrections towards the range lows should be absorbed much better than they were during previous breakdowns.
Less leverage driving the move means less leverage available to unwind.
$BTC
#EarningsRealityCheck
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback
#CircleArcLaunch Regarding Stake Capping and EIP-8361:
The Ethereum Foundation and many core researchers believe reducing issuance would improve Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals. Their argument is that lower issuance strengthens ETH’s store-of-value (SoV) properties while maintaining or even improving security.
On the other side, lending and DeFi protocols argue that lower issuance could reduce revenue, liquidity incentives, and user activity, potentially resulting in less on-chain activity and weakening ETH’s role as a productive asset.
Some loopers earn yield directly from issuance, giving them a clear economic incentive to oppose reductions.
The key is to move beyond political arguments and analyze the numbers:
1. If issuance is reduced, does looping remain viable? If it declines significantly, what activity replaces it and what is the impact on Ethereum usage?
2. If demand for LSTs/LRTs falls, how much would that reduce ETH demand and network activity?
3. Could stronger deflationary pressure increase ETH’s value enough to offset any lost activity?
4. Would lower issuance attract more users, capital, and applications over the long term?
The solo-staker debate is not the main focus here, as those arguments have largely been addressed and likely do not change Ethereum’s broader trajectory (especially with the Strawmap roadmap).
The goal should be simple: replace ideology with data and determine the actual economic impact.# Why IPOs Are Not a Shortcut to Profit?
The wave of technology company IPOs is once again stirring market enthusiasm. SpaceX ($XSPCX) led the way after raising US$86 billion, but its valuation was corrected by hundreds of billions of dollars.
This phenomenon highlights an important point: a large valuation does not always align with investor returns. OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, and Databricks are indeed anticipated, but history shows that IPO hype does not necessarily translate into long-term profits.
Many investors see IPOs as an opportunity to buy shares before prices soar. However, most of the company's value is usually already enjoyed by founders, employees, and venture capital investors who held shares before the IPO.
Retail investors often find themselves at a disadvantage. They generally can only buy after institutional investors have acquired shares at the offering price, so the chance to enter at the most attractive valuation is often missed.
Historical data supports this picture. Research by Jay Ritter from the University of Florida shows that companies that went public between 1980 and 2024 underperformed the market by about 21 percentage points on average during the first three years.
Nevertheless, opportunities are not entirely closed. Ritter explains that technology companies generally still lag the market after IPOs, but issuers with annual sales above US$100 million can outperform the index in the first three years.
For business players and investors, the main lesson is simple. IPOs should be seen as the beginning of a company's journey, not a guarantee of instant profit at the start.
Behind the fantastic valuations, factors such as profitability, cash flow, competitiveness, and the ability to sustain growth remain the key determinants of long-term investment success. Crude oil has already completed a short-term crash and may not continue to fall sharply in one direction. It is highly likely to turn into a weak consolidation, with only two extreme scenarios triggering a new crash (information for reference only and does not constitute investment advice). 1. The Major Drop That Has Already Occurred (Early August) WTI crude oil plunged from a high of $86.8 to around $74 over two trading days, with a maximum drop of over 14%. Core trigger: The U.S. pauses military strikes against Iran and begins negotiations, rapidly clearing the premium of Middle East geopolitical wars; 2. Combined Negative Factors: OPEC+ confirmed an increase of 188,000 barrels per day in September, with loose supply expectations; Global crude oil demand growth is weak, with bulls concentrating profits and selling off shares. 2. Will the short-term crash continue? There are two scenarios: 1) Somewhat pessimistic: There is a possibility of further weakness and a slight continued decline (no repeat of a single-day crash above 6%) - If US-Iran negotiations continue smoothly and the Strait of Hormuz fully resumes navigation, the remaining geopolitical premiums will continue to be digested; - Technical support below: First support at $72–73, strong support at the $70 integer level; Many institutions believe there is short-term downside potential, but the intensity of the plunge will weaken significantly; - Upside Resistance: Trapped positions at $78–80 are heavy, making it difficult to directly reverse the trend on a rebound. 2) It is unlikely that a new round of "crash-like crashes" will provide a bottoming effect—the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open, shipping disruptions persist, and geopolitical risks have not completely disappeared; - OPEC+ thoughPeople mining Bitcoin quietly sell electricity to AI
From last November until now, the 30-day average network hash rate of Bitcoin has dropped from 1108 EH/s to 898 EH/s, a full 19% decrease. Glassnode reviewed historical data and said this is the longest sustained hash rate decline since Bitcoin's inception. For nine months, it has been continuously falling, without a single decent rebound.
Previously, the reasons for hash rate drops were easy to guess. Either the coin price crashed causing miners to shut down, or a local ban forced mining farms to leave, or after the flood season ended, electricity costs became unbearable. These situations share a common point: miners were passive, pushed by market conditions and policies, and would return once the situation improved and equipment was powered back on.
This time is different. This time, miners are packing up and leaving on their own.
The same group of mining companies now hold over $70 billion in AI computing power contracts. The capacity originally used to power mining machines is being converted into AI hosting data centers. BeInCrypto bluntly states that this portion of electricity may never return. Miners haven't actually left the industry; they've just switched to clients who pay better.
The math is clear. Cipher Digital recently sold 1,619 Bitcoin for $123.4 million in cash, recording a direct loss of $47.7 million on the books, leaving only 646 Bitcoin in holdings. Their mining revenue for that quarter was $24.8 million, but interest expenses were $66.7 million—mining for a whole quarter still isn't enough to cover just over two months of interest. At times like this, if you had to choose between a mining rig and an AI server cabinet, which would you pick?
American Bitcoin looks even worse, losing money for three consecutive quarters, with its stock price down about 95% from its peak at listing. In July, it was forced to do a 1-for-15 reverse stock split just to barely maintain its Nasdaq listing. It happens to be one of the few companies still stubbornly focused purely on mining. Meanwhile, in Texas, approvals for data centers connecting to the power grid have been suspended. Electricity is becoming a more valuable asset than mining machines.
Even more interesting is another news on the same day. Saylor said in an interview that he used ChatGPT to design a Bitcoin-based preferred stock financing plan, and AI helped him raise about $15 billion. One person uses AI to finance Bitcoin, while another group sells the electricity used for mining Bitcoin to AI. The same AI stands at both ends of this chain—one end pumping in funds, the other drawing out resources.
The market barely reacts to this; Bitcoin remains around $64,000 with absurdly low volatility. But the hash rate line is real—it represents real electricity costs and concrete business decisions that can't be faked.
If one day miners mainly become landlords subleasing electricity to AI, who will support the security budget of this chain? Do you think the hash rate drop means miners have finally become rational, or is the capital attraction of this business really fading?Family, big news! Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott just announced — the CLARITY Act will "undoubtedly" be voted on before Congress recesses. This news is crucial!
⏰ Time window: only a few hours left
The Senate officially enters recess on August 10. Today is August 6, so if the bill is to pass before recess, there are only two working days left: today and tomorrow. Scott clearly stated the Senate might extend working hours to push the legislation — this shows the Republican leadership is serious this time.
📉 Market expectations have hit rock bottom — which is exactly the biggest expectation gap
Polymarket data shows the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 has dropped to a historic low of 13%. It was 31% a week ago and 39% a month ago. The market has almost treated this bill as a "deadlock."
But what does Scott’s latest statement mean? Bipartisan negotiations may have made breakthrough progress. a16z co-founder bluntly said if the bill doesn’t pass, the industry will remain building on "quicksand" — harsh words, but it also highlights how critical the bill is to the entire industry’s survival.
🚀 What happens if the bill passes?
The core of the CLARITY Act is to end years of jurisdictional ambiguity between the SEC and CFTC over digital assets. Once passed:
First, mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, SOL will be officially defined as "digital commodities," no longer in a regulatory gray area.
Second, the "faucet" of institutional funds will be fully opened. Tim Scott himself said blockchain regulation could unlock $3 trillion in capital inflows into the U.S. market. Banks can hold crypto assets directly on their balance sheets, not just through ETFs.
Third, DeFi will see a renaissance. The bill will provide regulatory exemptions for fully decentralized DeFi protocols.
Grayscale has already named Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, and Canton Network as major beneficiaries.
⚠️ But risks remain
The 60-vote threshold is the biggest hurdle. Republicans have only 53 seats, so at least 7 Democrats need to cross party lines. Controversial points include morality clauses, stablecoin yield provisions, and anti-money laundering regulations.
Bernstein warns that if the bill ultimately fails, it could trigger a new round of sell-off in the crypto market.
💎 My judgment
A 13% chance of passing precisely means the biggest expectation gap. As Senate Banking Committee Chairman, Scott wouldn’t lightly make a promise of "undoubtedly voting." His statement itself is a strong signal — the bill may be closer to the finish line than the market expects.
If the bill really passes at the last moment, Bitcoin breaking $70,000 might just be the beginning. If it fails, a short-term pullback is inevitable, but in the medium to long term, the SEC and CFTC’s "Project Crypto" will still advance the regulatory framework.
The next 24 hours is the most important time window for the crypto market in 2026. Keep a close eye on Senate agenda updates — this could be the biggest wealth catalyst of the year.
$BTC Will Bitcoin $BTC be able to hold the $58,000 level during this currency liquidation (FX unwinding), or are we facing a deeper sell-off toward $52,000?
The broken yen carry trade (yen-leveraged) in Tokyo is about to rapidly "suck out" global liquidity from the crypto market much faster than traders realize. Due to Japan's record debt, a liquidation of decade-long cross-border capital flows is unfolding, and high beta-volatility assets are facing a severe liquidity shortage over the next 30 days.
Will Bitcoin be able to hold the $58,000 level during this currency liquidation, or are we facing a deeper sell-off toward $52,000?
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYVoteMath BNB is now at 592, and you know this position is pretty tricky, right? It's neither up nor down.
I previously told you to buy between 570-580, but now it has directly pushed up. What is 592? It's the barrier that was hit several times last month at 600 but got pushed back down. It means the bulls are once again at the gates, but whether they can break through, no one knows.
On the 5th, it actually touched 600 but couldn't hold and was smashed back down. Now it's back at the same spot, meaning a second siege. Will it succeed this time? Unknown, but at least it shows the bulls haven't given up; after being pushed back once, they organized another wave.
The Grayscale situation is really solid. In Q2 rebalancing, BNB went from zero straight up to 30.6%, pushing ETH and SOL out. Although the fund size isn't large, only $1.56 million, the signal is very clear—the institutional allocation is tilting towards BNB. These people have better info than you; they wouldn't rebalance without reason.
The ecosystem hasn't stopped either; DEX trading volume hit 19 billion, quarterly burn was 1.62 million tokens worth over $900 million, supply is shrinking. There's a hard fork upgrade on August 25. The project team is working, not just speculating.
Technically, the daily moving averages are already in a bullish alignment, RSI at 57 isn't overheated, MACD is still in bullish territory. There's a bullish flag pattern on the daily chart, about halfway complete. The bears' selling pressure is clearly weakening with each round.
But don't get carried away. Chasing at 592 is risky; if it fails to break through and gets pushed back to 570, won't you feel bad? Above, 605-610 still holds a lot of liquidation orders—that's the bears' defense line. Also, analyst Crypto Patel said it might first retrace to 300-500 before rallying. Although I think that's a bit far-fetched, it shows not everyone is bullish.
For trading, hold what you have and watch; don't mess around at 592. If it breaks and holds above 600, you can add a bit, targeting 610-616. If it fails and retraces to 576-580 but doesn't break below, that's a buy-in point.
For those not on board yet, 592 is awkward. Either wait for volume to push above 600 to chase, which costs more but has a clear direction; or wait for a retrace to 576-580 to buy in, which costs less but requires patience. Don't go all-in at 592; both ways are uncomfortable.
Short-term traders should watch the 599-600.5 range; if it breaks through, look at 605-610. If it fails and breaks below 592, get out; don't fight the battle.
In short, BNB is at a critical crossroads: up is 610-616, down is 570-550. With Grayscale support + ecosystem activity + technical buildup, the bias is upward, but chasing high here carries risk.
Wait and see how 600 behaves. If it breaks, the sky's the limit; if not, it will keep consolidating. Don't rush; money in hand won't bite you.The four major cycles of $BTC each show a narrowing retracement range from peak to trough. This is not a coincidence; it reflects the changing nature of Bitcoin as an asset—each bear market bottom is being raised, and the depth of panic is being compressed. In 2013, it fell from $1150 to $152, a retracement of 87%. In 2017, it dropped from 19,891 to 3,122, a retracement of 84%. In 2021, it fell from 69,000 to 15,476, a retracement of 77%. From 87 to 84 to 77, each cycle cuts about 7 percentage points less. If this cycle continues at this pace, starting from the peak of 126,000, the retracement range would be roughly between 68% and 72%. The corresponding bottom would fall between $35,000 and $40,300. This is not a guess; it’s calculating the trend. The raising of each bear market bottom reflects a qualitative change in Bitcoin’s fundamentals. In 2013, BTC was only played by speculators, liquidity was paper-thin, and when whales left, the market crashed; the 87% retracement happened in an environment completely devoid of institutional credit. In 2017, USDT and early perpetual futures markets appeared, improving liquidity somewhat, but it was still a retail-dominated casino; the 84% retracement was the result of regulatory panic combined with leveraged liquidations. The 77% retracement in 2021 occurred amid a systemic crisis triggered by the consecutive collapses of LUNA, 3AC, and FTX; without those three disasters, the retracement might have been shallower. What’s different this cycle? Spot ETFs. In January 2024, institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity... Saylor starts selling coins
The market likes gods. Gods are best when they are always right, always steadfast, and preferably can bear the downturn for all believers.
Saylor was once very close to this position. Buying, issuing bonds, continuing to buy, and engraving "never sell" into the market's memory. But now, Strategy has sold another 1,638 BTC, raising about $105 million to pay preferred stock dividends, repurchase STRC, and replenish dollar reserves.
Some say faith has collapsed.
I think it's colder and simpler than betrayal: faith hasn't disappeared, it's just that the bill has come due.
The 1,638 BTC sold by Saylor is not much compared to Strategy's huge holdings.
Strategy's past machine had only one action: issue stocks or preferred securities to get cash, then turn the cash into BTC. As long as the company's stock maintains a premium relative to its BTC net assets, this machine can keep running.
Now the machine has an additional reverse gear — selling BTC to pay returns to security holders.
Strategy sold 32 BTC as early as the end of May to pay preferred stock dividends, which was the first separately disclosed net reduction in its treasury strategy in many years.
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #财报观察员：Mixed earnings, lock-up expiration approaching! What’s next for SpaceX?
Tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls, what is BTC really afraid of?
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US will release the July Nonfarm Employment Report.
Last month, new jobs added were only 57,000, significantly below expectations, so many have already bet in advance:
Employment continues to cool
→ Fed shifts to easing
→ US Treasury yields fall
→ Nasdaq and BTC rise
But “weak employment” does not necessarily mean good news.
What really needs to be observed tonight are the following three scenarios.
1️⃣ Employment cools, wages slow down simultaneously
This is the “soft landing” signal most favored by risk assets.
Inflation pressure decreases, US Treasury yields and the dollar may retreat, giving tech stocks and BTC some breathing room.
2️⃣ Employment cools, wages remain stubborn
This is the risk most easily overlooked.
The economy weakens, but wages and inflation pressure do not disappear, making it difficult for the Fed to ease quickly, and the market may worry about stagflation.
In this case, BTC may not rise just because Nonfarm Payrolls miss expectations.
3️⃣ Employment strengthens again, wages continue to rise
In the short term, this proves the US economy still has resilience, but it also increases the possibility of maintaining high interest rates or even tightening again.
If after the data release US Treasury yields and the dollar both rise, BTC and high-valuation tech stocks are likely to come under pressure.
So don’t just focus on the Nonfarm number tonight.
I will observe in this order:
Average hourly earnings
→ Unemployment rate and labor force participation rate
→ 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields
→ US Dollar Index
→ Finally, whether BTC confirms direction
The most critical signal is:
If employment data is weak but BTC does not rise, it indicates the market’s concern may no longer be interest rates but economic growth itself.
Which scenario do you think will occur tonight?
A: Employment and wages both cool, BTC strengthens
B: Employment weak but wages stubborn, market fluctuates
C: Employment accelerates again, US Treasury yields rise
#美国非农 #BTC #美债 #美元指数 #美股 #宏观观察
For market observation only, not investment advice. The most taboo thing in structural mechanics happened today at the crypto construction site. The so-called "never uninstall" BTC skyscraper named Strategy proactively dismantled part of its load-bearing wall—1,638 bricks sold at $63,957 each, below their foundation cost line of $75,419. This is what the construction party admits as a "structural loss fill."
Let me shine the designer's flashlight on this crack. The construction log clearly states: the last wall dismantling was from July 1 to 5, exchanging 3,588 bricks for $216M, then a full four-week halt—waiting for the concrete to set and market sentiment to reset. This time, the halving is less than half the volume, indicating a serious structural economic divergence within the construction team. They sell bricks while using the money to maintain the 12% fixed coupon high-rise balconies—the preferred stock dividends, which is equivalent to paying the "viewing platform maintenance fee" to the bondholders wearing hard hats before the building is topped out.
The deeper problem lies in the blueprint. The cost baseline of $75,419, this red alert line, is the building's "ground ±0.000." When the actual transaction price falls below this baseline, it shows the structure is no longer a heavyweight "counter-cyclical accumulation method" but has degenerated into "capital surge emergency response" to short-term liquidity pressure. They would rather sell coins at a principal loss than lose the "repair price" balance of the preferred stock—this is "structural reinforcement" on behalf of the major shareholder, financial leverage.
You can't expect "buying to resume construction" to reshape this steep future. The blueprint clearly marks the process relationship: only when the preferred stock recovers near the issue price (currently about 10% off) will the construction machinery roar back into the site. It's like an old engineer who never rescues a single node but watches the entire node's supply chain.
The real construction signal is whether the amount of bricks dismantled grows geometrically or gradually shrinks like this time—from 3,588 to 1,638. This reduction is actually making seismic joints in the building for future "reverse deleveraging."
I stare at a limestone brick on the construction site: its strength does not come from a whitepaper full of stories but from whether the structural mechanics calculations for every load-bearing wall opening pass inspection. #mstrsells1638btc Ondo Perps introduces tokenized gold and silver as collateral for perpetual contracts, with the core conflict lying in the tension between cross-market defensive asset liquidity release and the intensity of on-chain derivatives liquidation.
ONDO connects tokenized precious metals to the derivatives margin system, allowing traders to leverage on-chain while retaining gold and silver positions. This mechanism reduces the need for frequent conversions to stablecoins during market volatility, directly introducing macro hedging assets into crypto derivatives liquidity pools.
The transmission sequence of cross-market driving factors is as follows: Federal Reserve interest rate expectations affect the US dollar index, which in turn drives the macro gold price, ultimately transmitting through on-chain tokenized gold to the staking value and liquidation lines within the $ONDO ecosystem. When traditional markets see gold prices rise due to rate cut expectations, the value of on-chain staked assets rises synchronously, reducing derivatives liquidation risk accordingly.
The bullish scenario assumes gold prices oscillate upward and the US dollar weakens. If both US stocks and gold remain strong simultaneously, the scale of on-chain tokenized precious metal staking expands, traders’ long position safety margins widen, driving a valuation premium for ONDO’s positioning as a derivatives hub. The failure signal for this scenario is a sudden strong rebound in the US dollar index, causing a rapid correction in the valuation of on-chain precious metal collateral.
The bearish scenario focuses on cross-market liquidity squeezes under extreme macro conditions. If Federal Reserve rate expectations spike sharply or the US dollar surges causing a one-sided plunge in gold prices, delays in on-chain oracle pricing and large liquidation slippage may trigger a chain reaction of collateral liquidations. The failure signal for this scenario is a significant increase in on-chain liquidity pool depth, sufficient to absorb slippage shocks from extreme sell-offs.
When both traditional US stocks and the crypto market experience dual liquidity tightening, the negative correlation hedging effect between macro assets and crypto derivatives will completely fail. At this point, even if traders hold gold tokens as collateral, the linked liquidation of derivatives positions will still force capital to fully return to stablecoins.
In the next 7 days, key observations should focus on the direction of US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, as well as the dynamic changes in the total amount of ONDO on-chain tokenized precious metal staking.
#CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩10:30 PM, after turning off the screen
After taking a shower tonight, my hair was still dripping. The phone screen lit up, then went dark again. Thursday, August 6, 2026, no different from yesterday.
I spent two hours reviewing on-chain data and will share some details I noticed tonight.
$BTC had a high-low range of less than $900 today, and option volatility dropped to near this year's lows. In the afternoon, there was a call option trade close to 200 contracts expiring in September, which stood out a bit in such a quiet market.
$ETH Gas briefly fell below 4, the mainnet is indeed quiet. But USDC on-chain transfer count increased by nearly 12% compared to yesterday, money is moving. The ETF has had net buying for eight consecutive days, volume is small but continuous.
$SOL surged 5% intraday, reaching $158 before giving it all back. In a low liquidity environment, algorithmic orders alone can create such a pattern.
$XRP** A top 50 address moved 12 million tokens from an exchange to a cold wallet, paying a high fee, prioritizing security over cost.** $LINK price feed calls still exceed 10,000 daily; one address has been buying 500 tokens daily for the past two weeks, funds coming from compliant custody. $AAVE** There was a $7.5 million USDC loan today; the borrower’s address has been active for over 500 days, moving funds every two weeks, resembling a hedge position.** $MKR burn volume increased by over 20% week-on-week; several small addresses bought and immediately locked tokens into the governance contract for the longest term.
$UNI** Frontend trading volume dropped 15% week-on-week, daily active addresses climbed back above 20,000.** $LDO staking net increased by about 40,000 ETH, stETH discount narrowed from 0.4 to within 0.1. $ENA** There were continuous small buys for four hours today, each around 2,000-3,000 tokens, totaling over 50,000, with a very regular rhythm, suggesting multiple addresses operating.** $ONDO One address filled a dozen or so limit orders, each about 500 tokens, totaling nearly 8,000. $ENS domain registrations were 35% higher than the average of the previous three days, with over 80% new registrations, not typical retail.
$ARB** Trading volume was nearly 40% lower than last Friday; market makers are increasing deposit frequency.** $OP similar but to a lesser extent. $STRK hit a new low since listing, buy orders are pitifully thin, the market has no patience for new projects.
$SUI** Fell nearly 3%, active addresses down 20% from last week.** $APT early investor addresses transferred 500,000 tokens to exchanges. $SEI volume shrank and price dropped, showing no sign of stabilization.
$PEPE** Correlation with Bitcoin remains above 0.7; funds treat it as a Beta substitute.** $WIF turnover rate is the lowest in nearly two weeks, intraday pump was crushed back down. $BONK** and **$FLOKI slightly down; liquidity remains at the top, but almost no activity in mid and tail segments.
$FET** and **$AGIX relatively resilient; AI narrative provides some support but fragile—if Bitcoin crashes, they will fall harder. $PENDLE** YT trading volume suddenly more than doubled.** $CRV has had net TVL outflows for five consecutive days; community discussion is cooling.
Summary of today’s capital flows: net inflows include $ENA**, **$PEPE, $ONDO**, **$LINK, $UNI**, **$AAVE, $MKR**, **$ENS, $LDO**, **$RNDR, $FET**. Net outflows include **$WIF, $BONK**, **$FLOKI, $ARB**, **$OP, $STRK**, **$SUI, $APT**, **$SEI, $TIA**, **$DYDX, $CRV**, **$CAKE. But this is just a one-day snapshot; it could reverse tomorrow.
Several exchanges’ $BTC** and **$ETH balances have declined together for the third consecutive day; Bitcoin down about 4,000 coins, Ethereum down about 20,000. Large holders are not panicking.
On-chain liquidation total is under $500,000, the lowest in nearly two months; most leveraged longs that needed to be liquidated have been cleared.
Market makers generally narrowed bid-ask spreads today but increased order cancellations—they are willing to provide liquidity but unwilling to take directional bets. They have no clear direction either.
Almost 10:30 PM, the convenience store outside the window is still lit.
I didn’t move my accounts today. In this market, watch more and trade less; trading just pays fees. Sometimes the best move is to do nothing and save your bullets for when you truly understand the situation.
Phone is charging in the living room; I glanced at it before entering the bedroom—it’s still the same price.
August nights are quite long; no need to stare at candlestick charts every minute. The core research focus is shifting towards long-term technology, while top engineering talents are leaving one after another to start their own ventures. The management restructuring of tech giants is creating tension between accelerated business growth and stagnation in foundational innovation.
The market is shifting its attention from the mere expansion of model parameters to the monetization efficiency of capital expenditures and the stability of the technology pipeline.
The low-cost impact of open-source models and the talent siphoning by competitors are forcing a revaluation of the marginal returns on R&D investments, directly suppressing the risk appetite for high-valuation tech assets.
When organizational adjustments fail to quickly reduce the attrition rate of core R&D personnel, the expectations for accelerated commercialization and the risks of bottlenecks in foundational model iteration will collide head-on.
If the new management can streamline the commercialization execution rhythm and stabilize the team within a quarter, market confidence in cash flow recovery will be restored; however, if the performance improvements of the main models fall short of expectations, this recovery path will be invalidated.
Conversely, if the wave of core architect departures spreads to the infrastructure team in the following weeks, capital positions will accelerate their withdrawal from this sector; meanwhile, a sudden, unexpected surge in cloud business revenue would halt this downward transmission.
The capital market’s pricing logic for high-tech weightings is tightening from pure future expectations to tangible profit margins, and any gap in technical talent may be interpreted by the market as a structural loss of long-term competitiveness.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether the list of departing core technical personnel will further expand to include the foundational infrastructure team.
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？SanDisk $SNDK earnings report exploded, but it still fell 7% after hours.
Revenue was 8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%; net profit was 6.9 billion, compared to a loss of 23 million in the same period last year; gross margin reached 84.6% — all supported by AI data centers, with this segment's revenue soaring 1298% year-over-year.
The board also approved a 14 billion share buyback plan. Logically, the stock should rise, right?
But after hours it once dropped over 8%. The reason is simple: next quarter's revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, with a midpoint of 10.55 billion, below the market expectation of 10.8-11.16 billion. Gross margin guidance is 83%-85%, basically flat.
How many times have we seen this script this year? SK Hynix, AMD, SanDisk — all beat expectations, but as long as they don’t exceed the "fully priced-in market expectations," the stock falls.
However, looking longer term, SanDisk has signed 8 NBM long-term contracts, locking in a guaranteed revenue of 93.9 billion USD, with more than half of 2027 capacity already sold. Short-term expectations are too high and got hit, but mid-term AI storage demand remains intact.
For $BTC: storage stocks are collectively getting hit, the semiconductor index is under pressure, tech sector sentiment is suppressed, and BTC can’t escape short-term weakness. But the real demand for AI storage hasn’t stopped, and locking long-term contracts through 2028 indicates the sector’s health — after weathering this earnings season storm, the recovery will come.Market Environment & Liquidity
The market is caught in a structural tug-of-war. Stablecoin liquidity is contracting sharply, with USDT supply dropping roughly $4B over 60 days to October 2025 lows, suppressing recovery momentum. At the same time, exchange inflows exceed 14,000 BTC in five days, increasing sell-side pressure. Despite this, $ETH continues attracting institutional demand through ETF inflows, while $SOL and $XRP are showing relative strength by holding above key moving averages.
Institutional vs. Retail Positioning
Institutional capital continues rotating into regulated investment products and high-conviction assets. Besides $BTC and $ETH, accumulation is visible in $LINK, $UNI, $AAVE, $MKR, $LDO, and $SNX, supported by improving DeFi activity and rising total value locked. On the retail side, $DOGE and $SHIB continue to experience capital outflows.
Derivatives markets currently show negative funding rates across $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $MATIC, $AVAX, $DOT, and $APT, a contrarian signal that has historically preceded short-term recoveries. Meanwhile, $ARB and $OP are trading near their realized prices, suggesting potential downside support, while $RNDR and $FET continue benefiting from the AI narrative.
Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios
A bullish outcome remains possible if stablecoin liquidity begins expanding again and ETF inflows remain strong. In that case, $BTC could reclaim higher resistance levels, with $SOL and $AVAX potentially leading the next leg of the altcoin recovery.
A bearish scenario would emerge if liquidity continues shrinking and macro or regulatory pressures intensify. That could weigh on $BTC, $ETH, $LINK, and the broader altcoin market as correlations remain elevated.
Key Takeaway
The most important metric to monitor is the 60-day stablecoin liquidity trend, as it remains a leading indicator of market strength. Traders should also keep a close watch on options open interest around major strike prices, as weakening positioning could signal fading market conviction.ETH short positions: After moving sideways, the risk of liquidation peaks in the surge range. Why was the expectation that the price of decline increases as the price moves too long? After a long period of sideways movement, Ethereum surged, prompting short position holders to cut losses. Although the case mentioned in the original text reflects the experience of an individual trader, this event suggests a shift in position structure rather than simply expanding volatility. As the movement lengthens, volatility compression accumulates, which acts as a structural factor that increases liquidation intensity during directional breakouts. Especially when short positions are accumulated and an upward breakout occurs, forced liquidations trigger a chain reaction. Whether this surge is a short squeeze or a trend reversal remains to be seen. However, due to the price structure, short-term lows are rising, and whether spot demand absorbs selling pressure in the futures market will be a turning point for further gains. Ethereum's relative strength is improving compared to Bitcoin. While Bitcoin moves sideways, Ethereum's surge is seen as a signal that risk appetite in the market is shifting toward altcoins. This is simply🚀 $BNB / USDT Short-Term Price Prediction 📉📈
📊 Chart Overview
Current Price: $BNB 592.40 (24h High: $602.50 | 24h Low: $591.20) 🔻
Key Support (MA5): $BNB 591.50 🛡️
Secondary Support (MA10 / MA20): $577.80 – $585.60 🛡️
Key Resistance: $605.60 (Recent peak high) 🚧
30-Day Trend: +2.72% 🟢
🔮 The Prediction
Short-Term Outlook: 🐂 Steady Uptrend Holding Above Support!
Price Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $602.50 (Testing 24h high)
🎯 Target 2: $605.60 - $615.00 (Breakout above recent peak resistance)
🛡️ Support Level: $591.50 (Immediate holding line)
💡 Summary: $BNB is holding steady in a strong uptrend above its moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20) 🚀! As long as price stays above key support at $591.50, buyers remain in firm control. A breakout above $602.50 will pave the way for a retest of $605.60+! ⚠️ Dropping below $591.00 may trigger temporary consolidation down toward $585.60.Google AI suddenly undergoes a major reshuffle.
**The real concern is not who takes over as the leader, but that core talent is starting to leave in batches.**
DeepMind head Demis Hassabis is shifting focus to AGI and long-term research.
The new management clearly emphasizes:
product implementation, commercialization, and execution speed. Meanwhile,
several key figures in Google AI, including Jeff Dean, have left to start their own ventures.
This indicates that the AI war has entered the next phase.
Previously, the competition was about: whose model has more parameters.
Now it’s about:
who can retain the top talent,
who can turn models into products faster,
who can truly make money.
Google’s problem is not "lack of AI."
Gemini remains very strong.
Google Cloud also has huge commercial entry points.
The real issue is: **strong research doesn’t necessarily mean the fastest execution.**
OpenAI and Anthropic are poaching talent.
Chinese open-source models are driving down costs.
Google now must simultaneously guard:
talent, models, products, and commercialization.
This reshuffle isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
If the new management structure can get Gemini to market faster,
it could actually boost Google AI’s competitiveness.
But if talent continues to drain,
that is the real danger signal.
The most valuable asset of an AI company has never been its servers.
It is: **the people who can build the next-generation models.**
#谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注 If Russia really starts allowing licensed platforms to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum starting in September, it would be much more than just the word "open." Have you ever wondered why Putin chose this particular moment to use such restraint to open the door to crypto? This news story hides several easily overlooked details. I stared at it for a long time, and the more I looked, the more interesting it seemed. To start with the most straightforward point: Russia is only allowing BTC, ETH, and USDT entry this time, with an annual personal limit of $3,800. This number is very small—so small that it doesn't even count as pocket money for retail investors. But the focus is not on the amount, but on the words "licensed platform"—which means Russia has finally recognized crypto assets as compliant assets, even if only as "limited legality." What is the market actually trading? I think the transaction isn't about how many coins Russian retail investors can buy, but about the narrative itself that "a sovereign power is beginning to accept crypto through a legal framework." This signal boosts risk appetite and is often reflected in prices even before the actual amount of capital flowing in. Looking at the second layer of impact: domestic payments are still prohibited, indicating that Russia does not treat crypto as a substitute for fiat currency, but rather as an asset allocation tool. This positioning is important—it does not challenge the dollar system or the path of central bank digital currencies, so the pressure of international sanctions will not escalate immediately; instead, it provides a "security model" for other hesitant countries. Emotionally, the crowd is now in a very delicate state. On one hand, FOMO#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？
Gold is surging wildly, but $BTC is "playing dead"
Yesterday, gold surged 4%, directly hitting $4200. The reason is simple: ADP employment data was unexpectedly weak, the market started betting on rate cuts, the dollar and US Treasury yields both fell, and gold was the first to benefit.
According to this logic, $BTC should also rise, but it has been hovering around $64,000.
Why?
Because the current issue is not the lack of positive factors, but the lack of incremental funds.
ETFs are still buying continuously, but Coinbase premiums have been negative for nearly 80 consecutive days, US institutions have not entered aggressively, some are buying while others are selling, so the price naturally cannot be pushed up.
Right now, gold is trading on rate cut expectations, but $BTC is waiting for the rate cuts to actually happen.
I think $65,000 is still a key level.
If it holds above that, the market may truly start; if it can't hold, it will most likely continue to fluctuate.
Don't be fooled by the wind picking up; the BTC ship's sail hasn't truly been raised yet. I feel that this $ETH chart I drew is very straightforward and still has analytical value. Previously, I kept talking about the step-shaped rise; $ETH first pulled back to [REDACTED-GW-BankCard_cn]-2100.
Why did I short? I lost money but now I understand. Although $ETH is still generous, it remains a bearish trend market, but when it dropped to 1511 in June and stopped falling, the market began a small cycle rebound trend, and looking at the larger timeframe K-line, there is a very obvious support rebound.
#Vitalik公布"精简以太坊"路线图 #机构逆势加仓：SharpLink增持近4万枚ETH Complete Analysis of CORE's Overseas Popularity (Latest as of August 2026)
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is an objective compilation of industry information and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please make rational judgments and independent decisions.
Many community members tend to only observe domestic community sentiment, overlooking the true overseas public opinion heat. As the underlying public chain focusing on BTCFi, the real atmosphere among overseas communities, institutions, and developers directly determines mid-to-long-term incremental capital. Today, we objectively analyze the current complete overseas popularity status, thoroughly discussing advantages and shortcomings.
1. Overseas Social Media Data: Impressive on paper, but real activity continues to weaken
1) X (formerly Twitter) official account
Total followers: 2.32 million, ranking in the top tier of the BTCFi track. However, the data contains obvious inflation, with many followers originating from early airdrop accumulation, constituting zombie dormant users. Interaction on tweets has steadily declined over the past 30 days, with likes and retweets shrinking continuously. Market heat cannot be judged solely by follower count.
2) Discord community
Registered members: 247,000, but daily active conversations number only in the thousands. Community opinions are polarized: veteran miners hold firmly to the computing power narrative, while many overseas retail investors continuously question delays in positive developments and the computing power promotional rhetoric. Related disputes have persisted long-term.
3) Overseas Reddit and other crypto forums
Have dedicated discussion sections but lag noticeably behind Stacks and Bitlayer in popularity. After a price drop, discussion volume has significantly decreased, with most posts focusing on slow roadmap delivery and prolonged sideways bearish trends.
4) Telegram multilingual groups
High attention from Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern retail investors, who are also the main source of overseas retail participants; ordinary traders in Europe and America show weaker participation willingness.
2. Institutions and Traditional Finance: Compliance breakthroughs achieved, but limited willingness for incremental capital entry
✅ Definitive positive progress
1) The London Stock Exchange launched compliant BTC staking products built on the Core system, one of the few BTCFi projects bridging traditional retail financial markets in Europe and America.
2) Multiple leading custody platforms have integrated the ecosystem, allowing institutionally custodied BTC assets to participate in on-chain staking, continuously attracting attention from small asset managers and family offices toward ecosystem infrastructure.
3) Leading institutional research institutes continue to track and cover CORE, defining it as the core layer-one public chain of BTCFi, maintaining long-term track exposure.
⚠️ Unavoidable shortcomings
Top-tier large asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity remain only at the technical research stage and have not yet launched financial products related to CORE tokens. Most institutions only use the network to complete BTC staking for yield, rarely allocating large amounts of $CORE for long-term holding.
3. Cross-track comparison: The popularity gap with Stacks and Bitlayer is gradually widening
1) Developer ecosystem
Early Core developer growth momentum was good, but recent trends have changed. Stacks continues to attract overseas development teams with its mature sBTC ecosystem. Core's code update pace has slowed in the past three months, and the number of new decentralized applications has decreased.
2) Market narrative recognition
Overseas media more readily recognize Stacks' clear delivery achievements. CORE's "Bitcoin computing power delegation" narrative has long been questioned by overseas opinion leaders, with ongoing negative discussions diverting traffic.
3) Secondary market capital preference
Overseas leading exchanges show weaker spot trading volume compared to competitors. Whenever the BTCFi sector rebounds, Stacks often exhibits better market elasticity, with new incremental funds favoring projects with clearer delivery progress.
4. Attitude stratification among three types of overseas market participants
1) Bitcoin miners and early participants: Core stable base
Highest recognition, obtaining chips through computing power delegation, with longer holding periods, forming the community's stable foundation.
2) European and American institutional funds: Cautious stance
Recognize the value of BTC staking infrastructure but doubt the token's long-term value capture ability, preferring to use ecosystem services without heavy token holdings.
3) Overseas retail traders: Huge divergence
During market rebounds, large funds speculate on lstBTC and SatPay expectations; once positive developments are delayed and prices continue adjusting, retail investors exit quickly, causing community activity to plummet.
5. Three core hidden risks suppressing the market
1) Inflated fan base with insufficient genuinely active trading users, lacking spontaneous market heat spread;
2) Early positive expectations have been prematurely exhausted, with discussions on narrative exaggeration and product delays spreading, affecting newcomers' confidence;
3) Intense competition in the BTCFi track, with competitors continuously launching mature applications, eroding early first-mover advantages.
6. Future popularity reversal, focus on three major catalysts
① Global launch of the ordinary user version of lstBTC, achieving continuous month-on-month growth in on-chain staked BTC quantity;
② SatPay officially commercialized in Europe and America, with publicly verifiable ecosystem fees and on-chain token buyback data;
③ Large European and American financial institutions issue compliant financial products linked to CORE, bringing sustained institutional buying.
Ultimately, market trends are determined by incremental capital. Domestic sentiment can only influence short-term fluctuations; overseas ecosystem delivery and capital attitudes are the keys to $CORE's long-term trajectory. What do you think—can SatPay's rollout reverse overseas market expectations? Share your views in the comments.
$CORE #CoreDAO #BTCFi #PublicChainTrackAnalysisWeb3 US Stocks | 2026.08.06
SoftBank Q1 net profit exceeds expectations, OpenAI investment to increase to $64.6 billion
SoftBank continues to go All in on AI, expecting cumulative investment in OpenAI to reach $64.6 billion by October. Tech stocks show clear divergence; Dow hits new highs but AI concept stocks' pullback drags down Asian markets, SK Hynix plunges 10%, Western Digital drops 15%
US tech stocks enter a contraction phase; only companies with both perfect earnings and guidance can continue to rise. FOMO sentiment is heating up but no longer protects all tech stocks
Correlation between US tech stocks and crypto markets is strengthening; watch for AI narrative's spillover effects on the Web3 sector
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 US stock market storage chips opened with short sellers venting fully
After hitting the lower limit, a rebound followed
Micron $MU almost recovered yesterday's losses
SanDisk $SNDK showed large fluctuations, mainly playing to excite and thrill.
Next, all eyes are on tomorrow's big non-farm payrolls
Will Black Friday arrive? #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？