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$SPCX will face its first large-scale unlocking tomorrow, marking a real short-term stress test.
On August 6, about 910 million SPCX shares will be unlocked, nearly twice the size of the current market's circulating shares. After unlocking, the free float will increase from less than 5% to about 12%, suddenly increasing the available chips, and the market will first need to absorb the potential selling pressure.
It is worth noting that unlocking does not mean all 912 million shares will be dumped on the market on the same day. Whether employees, early investors, and institutions sell will ultimately depend on earnings performance, valuation levels, and market absorption capacity.
But for short-term traders, the focus is not on guessing who will sell, but on three things:
Whether trading volume significantly expands on the unlocking day and the following days
Whether there is sustained support after breaking key price levels
Whether the first earnings report can give the market a reason to hold on
SpaceX's unlocking is not a one-time event. The company adopts a phased arrangement, with multiple batches of shares entering circulation gradually afterward. Therefore, August 6 is more like the beginning of a liquidity structure change rather than the end of negative news.
For stocks with ultra-low free float like this, early price increases rely on scarcity of chips, while subsequent volatility depends on whether real buying can absorb the increasing supply. For SPCX, the core issue tomorrow is not the unlocking quantity itself, but at what price the market is willing to absorb this new supply of chips Regarding the Clarity Act, if by the 6th there is still no progress in discussions in Congress, that will be the main reason the key players use to write media pieces to short the market.
Because if these media outlets don't report the news that Congress is going on recess and the Clarity Act is effectively dead, most investors worldwide wouldn't even know about the congressional recess.
Nor would they know that the Clarity Act won't make it in time.
$BTC The U.S. stock market hit an all-time high thanks to a semiconductor rally. What are the conditions under which this trend will lead to crypto risk assets? The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high up 1.02%, and the market capitalization of the U.S. stock market increased by about $800 billion that day. The semiconductor sector led the rise. Just five chip stocks alone can account for a significant portion of the day's gains. Micron rose 5.63% to $52.7 billion, AMD rose 6.34% to $50.1 billion, Intel rose 9.22% to $42.3 billion, Marvell climbed 10.43% to $18.1 billion, and SanDisk climbed 7.64% to $14.6 billion. The combined increase of these five stocks is approximately $178 billion. The significance of this semiconductor rally for the crypto market goes beyond simply rising risk appetite. Semiconductors are an asset class at the forefront of the global liquidity cycle. In particular, the strength of Micron and AMD is seen as a sign that expectations for AI infrastructure demand remain solid. This is due to Nasdaq and Bitco.Is history repeating itself? One million bitcoins are changing hands near $60,000
The current $60,000 level is no longer just an ordinary support line.
In February this year, bitcoins with costs concentrated between $60,000 and $70,000 already reached about 1.43 million coins, accounting for more than 8% of the non-exchange circulating supply. Now, at just two core price points of $61,000 and $63,000, there are approximately 362,000 and 515,000 BTC stacked respectively.
But history tells us:
A million coins piled up at a low level does not mean an immediate takeoff, but often indicates the final major reshuffling in a bear market.
In 2022, when Bitcoin dropped to between $17,600 and $21,200, about 1.539 million BTC changed hands within a month in that range, accounting for about 8% of the circulating supply at that time.
Later, after the FTX collapse, Bitcoin still dropped to around $16,000.
Looking back, the $17,000–$21,000 range was actually the true major bottom area of that cycle.
Similar phenomena also appeared after the 50% crash at the end of 2018, the flash crash during the March 2020 pandemic, and the 2022 LUNA and FTX collapses:
Panicked holders handed over their coins, while those willing to hold on took them.
Glassnode found at the time that the market accumulation behavior after these crashes was highly similar, and this structure usually appears when selling pressure gradually exhausts and the market begins to form a bottom.
So what really deserves attention now is not whether $63,000 will be pierced and broken again.
But that over one million BTC have already changed hands below.
This means that even if there is one last drop, it is more likely a bear market finale shakeout rather than the start of a new bear market.
Historical major bottoms are never formed when no one dares to buy.
They form when everyone is shouting that prices will fall further, but on-chain coins have quietly finished changing hands.The News Is Bullish… So Why Aren’t $BTC and $ETH Exploding Higher?
The market has no shortage of positive catalysts.
• Expectations for easier monetary policy are improving.
• Spot ETF demand remains supportive.
• Institutional adoption continues to expand.
• Regulatory clarity is gradually improving.
Yet Bitcoin and Ethereum are still struggling to build sustained momentum.
Here’s why.
1. Good news is already priced in.
Markets react to expectations, not headlines. Much of the optimism was reflected in prices before the news became widely accepted, leaving room for profit-taking rather than fresh buying.
2. Capital is becoming more selective.
Investors aren’t abandoning crypto—they’re allocating capital more carefully. Money is flowing toward the strongest narratives instead of lifting the entire market.
3. Liquidity is still limited.
Compared with previous bull markets, trading volumes remain relatively muted. Lower liquidity makes breakouts less reliable and increases the likelihood of sharp pullbacks.
4. Institutions still want macro confirmation.
Easing inflation and improving rate-cut expectations are encouraging, but many large investors are waiting for stronger economic signals before increasing exposure.
What’s next?
The next major rally will likely require more than positive headlines. Stronger ETF inflows, improving global liquidity, or a clear shift in central bank policy could become the catalyst that finally breaks the current range.
Markets often test investors’ patience before rewarding it. Periods of low excitement and sideways price action have historically been where long-term positions are built—not where trends end.
The biggest moves usually begin when the market stops believing they’ll happen.
#Ethereum11Years #TrumpTokenProbe #MSTRSells1638BTC Why not start at 100% ETH staked instead of 50% and let the transition take 5-10 years?
This will give certainty of issuance for all current stakers and DeFi, as well as give us enough time for the full transition towards stateless ZK validators, which will make solo staking infinitely cheaper and easier.
And most of all a natural staking equilibrium has time to manifest without disrupting ongoing staking & DeFi operations.
#EarningsRealityCheck
#SpaceXBeatEstimates
#AMDBeatsButDrops The most interesting aspect of the AI market right now is not whether chips will rise, but that storage, the most easily overlooked segment, is beginning to re-enter the center of market pricing.
SanDisk is releasing its earnings report tonight, and what the market really wants to see might not be how much profit was made in Q1, but a bigger question: Is the demand for AI infrastructure genuine growth, or is it an early overdraw?
Over the past year, the market's attention has been focused on GPUs and computing chips, but as AI model sizes continue to expand, storage is becoming the new bottleneck.
Tight supply of HBM, rising NAND prices, and the advancement of the HBF high-bandwidth flash standard—all these signals indicate that AI competition is no longer just about "who has the stronger chip," but about who can provide a complete storage and computing chain.
I believe that AI storage logic may experience short-term fluctuations, but the long-term trend still holds.
The reason is simple: if AI applications continue to expand, data volumes will only grow larger, and the demand for high-speed storage in model training and inference will not disappear.
But the problem lies here—the market has already priced in part of these expectations in advance.
So, rather than simply betting on earnings beating expectations, I am more focused on two signals from SanDisk:
First, whether AI-related order growth is sustained;
Second, whether the supply tightness in the coming quarters can truly translate into profits.
If the earnings report only tells the market "demand is good," that might not be enough.
What investors need to see now is: "Demand is good, and the company can really make money."
This is also why many AI companies recently have shown a phenomenon:
Orders hit new highs, but stock prices do not necessarily rise.
Because the market has moved from the "storytelling phase" to the verification and realization phase.
If I were allocating in the AI industry chain, I wouldn’t just focus on GPUs.
What’s truly worth attention might be those irreplaceable segments in AI infrastructure that the market hasn’t fully recognized yet.
SanDisk’s earnings report tonight is more like a stress test for AI storage.
If the data proves that storage tightness is turning into profitability, then the second phase of the AI market rally may still have room.
But if demand remains only at the expectation level, the market will continue to look for the next undervalued direction.
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 $SNDK The current Ethereum ecosystem is being dragged into an abyss by severe liquidity fragmentation. We have successfully moved over 95% of transaction throughput to Layer 2 wallets, claiming that transaction fees have been reduced to almost negligible levels. But the cost is that we have personally split a complete Ethereum world into dozens of isolated liquidity islands that do not communicate with each other.
For retail traders battling on-chain, cross-chain interaction has become a nightmare.
If you want to use a new protocol, you must first find a secure cross-chain bridge; after transferring to the new chain, you have to repurchase the native gas fee token; and on those new chains with liquidity as thin as a sheet of paper, even a slightly large buy order can cause slippage of over five percent. The scattered low gas fee advantage instantly vanishes in the face of multiple layers of fees: bridge fees, gas token swaps, and trading slippage.
This is equivalent to Ethereum nominally enlarging the cake but pushing retail traders into an endless internal liquidity trap.
More dangerously, this fragmented architecture forcibly increases security risks. Retail traders, in pursuit of high yields, have to repeatedly move funds across various cross-chain bridges lacking security audits. These cross-chain bridges are exactly the ideal cash-out machines for hackers. Every cross-chain transfer is a gamble with your principal and the hackers’ vulnerabilities.
Honestly, retail traders worldwide have long suffered from Ethereum’s fragmentation.
Vitalik is still calling daily for cross-L2 wallet standards and gas fee reforms, but the market cannot wait for such distant blueprints. In the current environment of competing existing funds, this extremely high interaction threshold and capital loss are mercilessly pushing retail traders toward one-stop, seamless monolithic chains like Solana or Hyperliquid.
If Ethereum cannot achieve complete chain abstraction in a short time, allowing users to complete seamless transactions without worrying about the underlying chain, then the so-called L2 infrastructure will ultimately become a pile of self-indulgent technical junk.
Of course, my pessimistic judgment leaves a 20% margin for error. If in the next few months, intent-based chain abstraction protocols can achieve widespread adoption and reduce cross-chain losses to near zero, I will also move my funds back to Ethereum L2. But until then, I prefer to be a cautious refugee staying honestly on a monolithic chain. SpaceX's first public earnings report exceeded expectations, but why did the stock price fall? The real test is just beginning
SpaceX's first earnings report after going public did not bring a simple "celebration"
In terms of revenue performance, the company still maintains a very strong growth rate. In Q2 2026, SpaceX's revenue reached about $7.8 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, surpassing previous market expectations; adjusted EBITDA also improved significantly, and the core business growth momentum remains strong.
However, after the earnings release, SpaceX's stock price fell in after-hours trading. The reason was not that the performance missed expectations, but that the capital market began to reassess the company's capital investment, profitability, and commercialization path over the next few years.
This is also the first time SpaceX, transitioning from a fast-growing private tech company to a publicly valued entity, has faced investors' comprehensive scrutiny of profits and cash flow.
Today, SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company but is laying out around three major directions: Starlink satellite internet, AI infrastructure, and commercial space business.
Among them, Starlink remains the most mature source of cash flow currently.
With the continuous expansion of its user base and growing demand from enterprise and government customers, Starlink is becoming an important revenue pillar for SpaceX. Compared to traditional aerospace business, satellite internet has stronger commercialization capabilities and is regarded by the market as a key asset supporting SpaceX's long-term profitability.
But after this earnings report, market focus is shifting toward AI.
Over the past year, Musk has continuously increased investment in AI infrastructure, with SpaceX committing substantial funds to computing power, data centers, and related energy systems.
The problem is that the AI industry is still in a high-investment phase.
Although AI-related business is growing rapidly and profitability shows signs of improvement, large-scale capital expenditures will still impact short-term profit performance. This is why some investors believe SpaceX may need to maintain a high-investment model for the next few years.
Market divergence has thus emerged.
Bullish capital focuses on future potential.
If AI computing demand continues to grow, SpaceX's vertical integration advantage—satellite network, launch capability, energy systems, and infrastructure construction—could become a competitive barrier difficult for other tech companies to replicate.
If Starlink, AI computing power, and space transportation form a complete ecosystem in the future, SpaceX's valuation logic may no longer be limited to traditional aerospace companies but closer to a next-generation infrastructure platform.
But cautious capital focuses on real-world pressures.
High growth means continuous investment.
Whether it is Starship project R&D, rocket launch system construction, or AI infrastructure expansion, all require substantial capital support.
For a company newly public, investors are looking not only at revenue growth speed but whether growth can ultimately convert into stable profits.
Additionally, the stock price faces short-term pressure from share unlocks.
Market data shows SpaceX will face its first batch of share unlocks post-IPO on August 6, with up to approximately 911.5 million shares potentially entering the market. The increased stock supply may affect short-term capital allocation and trigger market volatility.
Therefore, the current issue SpaceX faces is not whether there is growth.
The answer is clearly yes.
The real questions are:
Can high growth outpace capital consumption?
Can AI investment convert into long-term profits?
Can Starlink continue to provide stable cash flow?
Can Starship ultimately achieve the commercial goal of reducing launch costs?
The capital market is willing to give great tech companies higher valuations, but ultimately commercial results must validate this.
SpaceX has proven its technological breakthrough ability over the past decade, but after going public, it needs to further prove the sustainability of its business model.
In the short term, high capital expenditure and share unlocks may cause stock price volatility; but in the long term, the market is truly trading not just quarterly profits but whether SpaceX can become a key player in the future global infrastructure field.
The post-earnings adjustment does not mean the story is over; it is the company's first real market test.
In the end, the price will tell the market how much premium investors are willing to pay for SpaceX's future.
$SNDK $SPCX $GRVT
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
How has the AI investment wave impacted your trading?
Around 2023, I gradually increased investments in the tech sector, and in September 2024, the market started to pick up.
Around May to June 2026, after reaching the previous high, I sold all my positions.
The AI investment wave clearly has a stimulative effect on the crypto market $BTC $ETH
But it doesn’t always have a strong impact. Looking back at previous market trends, when the correlation with the US stock market was high,
every time tech stocks rose, it drove up mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, and the same applied to declines.
Recently, however, the correlation with crypto seems to have weakened; it hasn’t followed the rise of the US tech market or the gains have been weaker.
From a certain perspective, the subsequent rise of AI has also tightened liquidity for crypto.
If AI declines later, then focus will shift to tech giants like $AAPL and Microsoft.
Although some KOLs say good stocks never get cheap,
I personally believe these are indeed blue-chip stocks, but every panic is a localized opportunity to enter in batches.
The premise is to be prepared for a prolonged downturn for tech giants over the next period or even 1-2 years, such as prices dropping 50% or more from the buying price at the time of decline.
This is actually a chance to add to positions, like during a black swan event.
It’s not that these stocks are always “expensive” and you need to find the right timing to enter.
There is no market that always goes up or down; the important thing is that opportunities may "exist everywhere" in the market.
Preserving your survival time in the market is crucial.
@OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX @妍妍Eleven_OKX The leveraged funds driving the semiconductor market are now backfiring, as the semiconductor sectors in the US, South Korea, and Taiwan simultaneously enter a deleveraging cycle.
In June, leveraged ETFs continued to fuel the AI and semiconductor markets, but by July, they began rapid reverse deleveraging. The asset size of US tech leveraged ETFs has decreased by about $50 billion from the June peak and now stands at nearly $50 billion, the lowest level since April.
Similarly, the size of leveraged ETFs related to South Korea and Taiwan has dropped by more than half from their peaks, currently around $27 billion. Combined, these two markets still hold about $77 billion. In just over a month, nearly half of the leveraged ETF assets have disappeared.
The shrinkage in leveraged ETF size partly comes from net asset losses due to underlying stock declines, partly from investor redemptions, and partly from daily rebalancing by funds to maintain two- or three-times leverage. After investors redeem, funds need to sell stocks; after underlying stocks fall, funds also need to reduce positions to maintain target leverage.
When prices rise, this mechanism continuously generates mechanical buying. Stock prices rise, ETF net asset value increases, and to maintain fixed leverage, funds keep buying underlying stocks. The higher the price rises, the more they buy, and the larger the fund size grows.
After the market reverses, the entire process works in reverse. Stock declines cause ETF net asset value to shrink, funds start reducing positions, and investors seeing increasing losses continue to redeem, forcing funds to sell even more underlying stocks.
The triple-leveraged US semiconductor ETF $SOXL has already dropped about 67% from its June peak. After a 67% drop, it needs to rise more than 200% to return to its original level.
US tech products bet on Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron; South Korean funds focus on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics; Taiwan concentrates on TSMC and the semiconductor supply chain. Ultimately, all bets are on AI computing power, advanced processes, and memory chips.
Previously, global funds simultaneously bought into the same story, and leveraged ETFs amplified this trade further. Now, with US tech stocks and South Korean semiconductors both falling, leverage in all three markets is beginning to contract together.
Of course, the leveraged ETF size has nearly halved, indicating that leveraged positions are being cleared, but how long this cleansing will take before the market returns to normal is uncertain.$BTC Is Quiet… But Capital Rotation Is Already Underway.
Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range, but the real story is happening beneath the surface. On-chain data suggests the market is entering a new phase where capital is rotating rather than simply accumulating.
🔹 Long-term holders are slowing down
After months of aggressive accumulation, long-term holders are no longer buying every dip. Their holdings remain near record highs, which keeps circulating supply relatively tight, but the pace of accumulation has shifted into a neutral phase with selective profit-taking.
🔹 ETFs remain the strongest source of demand
US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue absorbing supply, with steady net inflows led by institutional players. As long as ETF demand remains healthy, it provides a strong foundation for Bitcoin and reduces the probability of a prolonged, deep sell-off.
🔹 Whale activity deserves attention
CryptoQuant data shows Binance’s whale transfer ratio has climbed to its highest level in months. More BTC moving to exchanges doesn’t automatically mean whales are selling, but it does signal that large holders are preparing to increase liquidity. Historically, this often precedes periods of higher volatility.
What this means for the market
The battle is no longer between buyers and sellers alone—it’s between institutional accumulation and whale distribution.
If ETF inflows continue to absorb available supply while exchange inflows remain limited, Bitcoin could eventually break higher. But if whale deposits accelerate and institutional demand weakens, the current range may resolve to the downside.
The next major move is unlikely to be driven by headlines alone. Watch the flow of capital, not just the price chart.
#SP500Hits7700 #SandiskEarningsWatch #HormuzDealStillPending Why did SPCX's earnings report, which met expectations after the market closed at midnight, still cause a sharp drop and then start to decline?
It's obvious that recently, US stocks related to AI generally show large capital expenditures in their earnings reports.
We've been discussing in the live room that when looking at US stocks, you need to consider earnings reports, ETF inflows, cash flow, capital expenditures, and finally the candlestick charts.
SPCX's revenue and losses are indeed very impressive, but what the market really worries about is
that the company is spending too much on AI computing power, data centers, Starship, and satellite deployment,
but hasn't provided sufficiently clear future cash flow and profit guidance.
The market feels that you won't be able to make that much money so quickly in the short term.
On August 6th, a new round of unlocking will begin. Could there be negative sell-offs?
If the unlocking coincides with concentrated sales by major shareholders, a weakening Nasdaq, or negative Starship news,
the sudden expansion of the circulating supply could lead to continuous declines. The trading volume on that day will be huge.
So, as soon as I woke up this morning, I immediately shorted one rocket at market price, holding it until tomorrow's unlocking to see. #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops In the past two days, I've seen several AI news pieces in a row, and I realized they are actually all talking about the same thing.
Google and Amazon continue to increase AI capital expenditures; Anthropic confirms forming an internal chip team; ByteDance releases a native full-duplex audio-video large model; Yushi Technology launches IPO. These seem like unrelated news items, but viewed together, a common trend becomes increasingly clear.
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A few days ago, Google and Amazon released their earnings reports, and many people discussed revenue, profits, and cloud business growth.
But what I think is truly worth noting is that neither company has slowed down AI investment. Google continues to invest in Gemini while also investing in Anthropic; Amazon keeps expanding AWS, developing the Trainium chip, and increasing AI infrastructure construction. Although their betting methods differ, they are both wagering on the same thing: the future demand for AI computing power will continue to grow.
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If cloud providers are competing for computing power, then model companies are starting to compete for control behind that computing power.
Anthropic's confirmation of forming an internal chip team, in my view, is not just about reducing costs. Chips determine inference costs, inference costs determine model prices, and model prices ultimately determine how far AI can go. From renting GPUs to starting to develop their own chips, what they truly want to control is the authority over tens of billions of dollars in future computing power costs.
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ByteDance released the native full-duplex audio-video model SeedRealtime on the same day, and I think the logic is the same.
Compared to past solutions where multiple models worked in series, full-duplex integrates voice, understanding, and generation into the same model, reducing latency and improving real-time interaction experience. It solves not only model capability but also the efficiency problem of the entire underlying architecture.
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Then look at Yushi Technology.
Choosing this timing for an IPO is essentially about reserving resources for the next stage of competition. Whether it's financing to expand production or continuing to develop core robotics technology, the goal is the same—to hold more key capabilities in their own hands rather than relying on others.
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So I increasingly feel that the AI industry has entered a new stage of competition.
In the past, companies competed on model parameters, benchmarks, and rankings; now, more and more companies are actively extending upstream and downstream. Cloud providers are locking computing power, model companies are locking chips, application companies are locking entry points, and everyone hopes to hold the most critical links in the industry chain in their own hands.
──── ✦ ────
Phase one: AI companies competed on models.
Phase two: competition is on the industry chain.
And in the next phase, what I look forward to seeing is: who can define the new infrastructure of the AI era.
Because what truly determines the value of an AI company may no longer be just the model itself, but how many chips, computing power, data, and entry points it can control.
The above represents only personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. $GOOGL $AMZN $NVDA Here's an unpopular observation: $BTC is stuck around 64K, and altcoins are even more lifeless, with no decent sector rotation at all. Why? Because there's no new capital entering the market; in a zero-sum game, no one can pull anyone else up. The real altcoin season always follows three steps: "BTC stabilizes first, capital overflows, sector relay." Right now, not even the first step of new capital is present. The worst thing to do at this stage is to chase "the next 100x" everywhere. What you should do is acknowledge that this is just a low-volume bottoming process, move less, and conserve your ammo. Wait until the money flows in before talking about swimming. Let's see how it goes. #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops The most worth discussing today is not the few growth figures in Circle's financial report, but that Wall Street has started to directly take a "validator seat" on a blockchain.
Circle announced today that Arc will launch its mainnet on September 16. The first batch of validators includes BlackRock, DTCC, Mastercard, Visa, Standard Chartered, ICE, Galaxy, and others; BlackRock plans to deploy BUIDL on Arc, and DTCC is also preparing to connect asset tokenization services.
Interestingly, Arc emphasizes openness and composability while adopting a permissioned validator model. This might be the kind of chain institutions truly want: applications can be open, but those responsible for bookkeeping and accountability must be pre-screened.
In the future, public chain competition may not only focus on TPS and Gas; who can integrate stablecoins, custody, clearing, and real assets into the same settlement network might be more critical.
The news comes from Circle's announcement on August 5.SpaceX’s Q2 revenue reached $7.81B, up 92% YoY, while its operating loss narrowed from $970M to $143M. The NVIDIA partnership for the Starmind AI1 satellite computing payload also strengthens the long-term technology case.
Still, the beat matters less near term than the supply and capital-intensity tests ahead. With up to 20% of restricted shares eligible for sale on Aug 6 and XSPCX down about 3.6% when checked, the market may need to absorb fresh supply before fundamentals regain control. The topic is currently ranked No. 2 trending on OKX Orbit.
This is market commentary, not financial advice.
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops Western Union is linking remittances with on-chain settlement through a Solana-based stablecoin issued by Anchorage. Its card arrangement with Rain and Visa adds a familiar payment interface, but distribution and repeat usage will determine whether the product reaches meaningful scale.
Mastercard's planned BVNK acquisition, valued at up to $1.8B, shows that competition is moving from experimentation toward infrastructure ownership. Adoption evidence remains more important than the number of announced partnerships.
Just my read, not advice.
#StablecoinPaymentRace #OKXOrbitToday's After-Hours Earnings Reports · Summary
Bearish:
SNDK — Negative gamma + heavy call unwinding + overly high expectations, partner Kioxia retracing, high risk of disappointment once targets are met.
WDC — Strong correlation with SNDK, storage sector under pressure, cautious options sentiment.
Bullish:
APP — Put wall at 410 provides strong support, negative gamma amplifies upside, consensus on high growth.
DASH — Orders/GOV steady, consensus revenue +30%+, clear growth logic.
FIG — Accelerated AI monetization + NDR at a high level, guidance has room for upward revision. Risk of storage sector double whammy, others depend on execution. Focus on guidance.
$SNDK
#WDC
$APP
$DASH
$FIG
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 Folks, today let's talk about something even hotter than the market — the TRUMP token is being called for investigation by senators.
Democratic Senators Warren and Blumenthal officially sent a letter to SEC Chair Atkins on Monday, requesting an investigation into whether the TRUMP token involves fraud or improper profits. The letter's wording is very harsh — "potentially constituting an illegal scam," "soft rug pull," "illegal fraudulent activity or facilitation of improper gains."
Why now? The data is too glaring
Nansen data shows that as of the end of June, about 989,000 accounts holding TRUMP tokens are at a loss, accounting for about two-thirds of total buyers, with cumulative losses of $3.81 billion. The token price fell from a high of $75 to $1.79, a drop of over 96%, and market cap fell from a peak of about $9 billion to less than $400 million.
On the other hand, Trump-related entities earned about $636 million from this business. A few early buyers took about $4 billion in profits, while the vast majority of losses were borne by later retail investors. Nearly 1 million investors lost money, while the president profited over $600 million — this asymmetry is indeed hard not to ponder.
Core controversy: Is this a Rug Pull?
The two senators questioned in the letter whether this might constitute a "Rug Pull" or "soft rug pull" — not the traditional sense of the development team suddenly running off with funds, but gradually withdrawing market support causing continuous losses to investors. About 80% of the TRUMP token supply is held by Trump organization-related entities, and this high concentration of chips itself is a point of contention.
The most surreal part
SEC Chair Atkins was appointed by Trump. Having the subordinate of the investigated party investigate the party themselves — the market already knows what the investigation outcome might be. The SEC has previously explicitly excluded meme coins from securities law regulation, so this letter is more likely political pressure rather than an immediate regulatory result.
But Warren's letter contains a heavy statement: "Even if potential violators have strong political connections, the SEC must be willing to enforce the law."
The likely outcome of this matter is that it will fizzle out, but it happens to coincide with a critical point in the CLARITY Act negotiations. The president issuing tokens, the president's agencies regulating, the president's people investigating — this "power asymmetry" structure itself is more worth pondering than the rise and fall of the TRUMP token.
For ordinary players, the lesson is straightforward: don't take the president's endorsement as an investment basis. Nearly 1 million retail investors have already paid a tuition fee of $3.8 billion in losses. Share your thoughts on this matter in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Recently, after watching the earnings calls of Google and Amazon, I have a feeling: Google and Amazon are actually betting on the same future, but their ways of betting are completely different.
Google is investing in Gemini while also being a major investor in Anthropic. For Google, if Gemini ultimately becomes the leading model, that is of course the best outcome; but if Anthropic continues to grow, Google's equity stake will also benefit. It turns part of the competition into an investment, leaving itself a fallback option.
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Amazon is taking a different path.
It does not focus on investment returns but continuously increases investment in AWS, self-developed Trainium chips, and building infrastructure for the AI era. Andy Jassy said very directly in the earnings call: as long as Frontier Models continue to advance, AI demand will keep growing in the coming years. The data centers built today and chips purchased are not costs but pre-locking future computing capacity.
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On the surface, one is betting on models, the other on infrastructure.
But what they are truly betting on is the same thing—whether Frontier Models can continue to break through. If Claude, Gemini, and GPT can keep improving in the next few years, enterprise AI deployment demand will continue to grow. The data centers built today, GPUs purchased, and AI chips developed will become scarce capacity in the future.
Conversely, if model capabilities enter a plateau phase with fewer breakthroughs and enterprise demand growth slows, then today's hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditure could turn from strategic assets into depreciation pressure on the balance sheet.
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So I think what really matters in these two earnings reports is not whose profits are a bit higher or whose cloud business grows faster.
What truly matters is that they both express the same judgment to the market: AI development is not yet over. Because only by believing that Frontier Models can continue to break through does the logic of these capital expenditures, often in the hundreds of billions, hold.
──── ✦ ────
Many people see capital expenditure as proof of a company's confidence in the future.
But I think it is more like an early bet. Google bets on the model ecosystem and diversifies risk through investment; Amazon bets on AI infrastructure, hoping to control the most important computing power supply when future demand explodes. The betting methods differ, but the stakes are exactly the same.
Google bets on the model ecosystem, Amazon bets on AI infrastructure, but what they are truly betting on is the same future. Capital expenditure has never been proof of confidence but a pricing of the future technological frontier. What really determines the value of these data centers is not today's earnings report but how far the next generation of Frontier Models can go.
The above represents only personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. $GOOGL $XAMZN $NVDA Alright, updating the "Bichiburg Money-Making Method" Chapter 2 - "Chasing the Rise"
Chasing the rise seems very simple; some think you just buy in at the high directly,
but without a scientific methodology, chasing the rise often turns into chasing the high, then quickly suffering huge drops and pullbacks.
After a few experiences, you won’t dare to chase the high anymore, but when real liquidity arrives, you’ll instead become one of those "afraid of highs and doomed to suffer."
How to chase the rise scientifically?
1️⃣ Identify external liquidity and sentiment
I believe very few people only trade QQQ. If you professionally trade QQQ liquidity, you probably don’t need Octopus Bro’s lessons.
Since we don’t professionally trade QQQ, let’s use QQQ as an external liquidity observation point.
Yesterday’s violent surge came from QQQ’s breakout and MAGS’s pump; market sentiment and liquidity were very strong, with solid support. Those who missed the ride felt FOMO and regretted not getting in. In this emotional atmosphere, it’s the best time to get on board and chase the rise.
This is also one of the major prerequisites for chasing the rise: there must be an external macro environment ignition, with liquidity visibly hungry, like last night and the night storage surged 30%.
2️⃣ Follow moving averages
Following small time-frame moving averages like 15m is common, but the moving average may not be retested, and stop-losses are hard to define precisely, so stability is insufficient. A truly strong rise almost never retests the moving average (of course, if it does and your stop-loss is accurate, you can boldly enter!).
3️⃣ Look for consecutive bullish candles (almost the best method for chasing the rise)
Check charts 1 and 2, both 1h time frame.
When you confirm sufficient external liquidity and sentiment, you can get on board immediately.
How to get on board? You need a reference point, a clear stop-loss.
The bottom of the previous 1h bullish candle is your confidence point to enter immediately.
If the previous bullish candle is large and its bottom is more than 3% away from the current price, take a smaller position, leaving some to wait for a pullback inside the bullish candle or for the next candle with a smaller stop-loss.
If the previous bullish candle’s bottom is about 1.5%, Octopus Bro usually enters immediately to avoid FOMO.
If the trend continues, after the next bullish candle appears, you can generally move your stop-loss up. As the trend extends, keep raising the stop-loss.
The idea of raising the stop-loss is always to move it to the bottom of the previous bullish candle. If a bearish candle appears but does not break below the previous bullish candle’s bottom, continue to use the previous bullish candle’s bottom as the stop-loss.
When the crypto bull market arrives, you’ll realize how powerful this method is. Octopus Bro’s initial wealth accumulation came from chasing the rise and riding the trend.
Once you gain experience and evolve to integrate consecutive bullish structures, capturing the major trend won’t be far off.
❓ Okay, you might ask, what if you get stopped out by a wick?
This is indeed common in one-sided markets because there might be big players dumping at certain points, especially in crypto.
No worries, the strength of liquidity-driven markets is sufficient support; if someone dumps, someone else will catch.
You just need to guard against quick wick stop-loss hits. How?
The previous chapter "Stop-Loss" mentioned "TWAP stop-loss" to prevent wicks. Octopus Bro’s approach has always been consistent.
❓ Can you trade without stop-loss?
Trust me, you’ll die!
Smooth, continuous trends are rare; often there are fake breakouts and fake pumps. If you chase high in a beastly market and get trapped, you’re taking the fastest and largest drop — the classic example of chasing the top and becoming a typical retail victim.
Yesterday and the storage 30% rebound day were both 1h liquidity-driven markets. As long as you get on board and keep moving your stop-loss, you can basically capture the gains.
The difference is that on the 30% night, you had more time to add and hold positions, while last night was more suitable for scalping. Octopus Bro’s 4% gain chasing $SNDK last night was exactly like that, very easy.
❓ What does a real big market look like? The kind Rolling Warehouse Bro loves?
See chart 3, NAS100’s daily-level pump in March. If you have the courage and experience to catch this kind of daily-level move, it’s a super profit wave.
You can use the same approach to keep chasing highs on the daily level.
Alright, by now, do you know how to chase the high?
Only scientific chasing prevents you from becoming a retail victim who chases the rise and sells at the drop.
Scientific chasing helps you get on board while suppressing your FOMO, so you don’t end up blindly buying at the highest point.
I haven’t decided what to post in the next chapter yet, maybe how to take profits or the timing and opportunity trading methods like Octopus Bro used last night on $AMD and $SNDK.
Hope this helps you and hope you can shed the identity of a retail victim as much as possible InnoLight controls roughly 27% of the global transceiver market, yet the FCC is pushing to have it banned by the end of the year.
The challenge is that U.S. competitors don't have the production scale to fill that gap. Capacity can't be replaced overnight if it hasn't already been built.
That's why the market often reacts before the fundamentals fully play out.
From an investment standpoint, I prefer the company that's already generating profits. Last year, $COHR earned $401 million, while $AAOI reported a $43 million loss. I'd rather back the profitable business.
#EarningsRealityCheck
#SpaceXBeatEstimates
#AMDBeatsButDrops Account Position Divergence Radar
The long-short ratio is most misleading if only one metric is considered; the number of accounts and position size must be analyzed separately.
$BTC does not show alignment across the three metrics, indicating that market sentiment has not yet reached a full consensus. The decline has not led to an expansion of positions; first, observe when the risk exposure contraction slows down. For now, only disagreement is confirmed; the trading direction requires a second layer of evidence from positions and price.
$ETH shows that both the overall and top accounts lean towards the long side, but the top position size remains on the short side, representing a clear account/position divergence. Price drops with position reduction indicate risk exposure is contracting and cannot be directly interpreted as new short positions. The account side is already biased long; next, it depends on whether top positions are willing to shift their weight to the same side.
$SOL shows a consistent long bias in the number of accounts metric, but the top position ratio remains below 1, meaning the numerical advantage has not translated into a top position advantage. A 15-minute decline with position reduction indicates the clearest signal is position exit and deleveraging. If the price continues to strengthen while the top position ratio remains below 1, this divergence has not truly resolved.📊 $SNDK Contract Liquidation Express (August 5)
According to liquidation data, this wave of shorts was brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $944,900
Long position liquidations about $40,200
Short position liquidations about $904,700
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $3,944,900
Long position liquidations about $2,112,500
Short position liquidations about $1,832,400
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $9,861,900
Long position liquidations about $3,782,400
Short position liquidations about $6,079,500
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $13,195,300
Long position liquidations about $4,996,000
Short position liquidations about $8,199,300
From the $SNDK liquidation data, in 1 hour short liquidations crushed longs, shorts were 22 times longs, a fierce short squeeze blitz at the start; in 4 hours the direction reversed, long liquidations surpassed shorts, longs were 1.15 times shorts, initial long killing appeared; in 12 hours direction reversed again, short liquidations crushed longs, shorts were 1.6 times longs, short squeeze returned; in 24 hours short liquidations surged to $8.19 million, 1.64 times longs, dog whales completed repeated long-short slaughter on SNDK—short squeeze → long kill → short squeeze again, cumulative liquidations exceeded $13.19 million. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 5
Two hot topics today point to the same theme: the market is re-pricing in the harshest way—"exceeding expectations" has become the baseline, any flaw will be magnified.
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubled, but stock price crashed
After market close on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report since listing. Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year surge, far exceeding market expectations of $6.9 billion; net loss narrowed sharply from $1 billion to $541 million; adjusted EBITDA reached $3.538 billion, a 191% year-over-year increase. Management also gave a strong guidance to hit $100 billion ARR by year-end.
However, after-hours stock price once plunged over 9%, wiping out over $100 billion in market value.
The culprit for the plunge was capital expenditure—Q2 capex soared to $18.37 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year. The market rewards spending efficiency, not the speed of burning cash. Worse, about 911.5 million restricted shares will unlock on August 6, with shorts betting $24.6 billion. The clash between stellar performance and soaring capex made investors vote with their feet.
💻 AMD: Best-ever earnings, still sold off
On the same day after market close, AMD delivered its best-ever results. Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, a record high; data center revenue doubled to $6.7 billion, accounting for 58% of total revenue; adjusted EPS was $1.66, up 246% year-over-year.
After-hours stock price once dropped over 9%.
Triple pressures hit simultaneously: Q3 revenue guidance about $13 billion, higher than some analysts’ forecasts but far below the aggressive $14 billion peak expectation; capex surged to $808 million, nearly triple last year’s same period; gaming revenue shrank 33% year-over-year to $779 million. Since 2026, AMD’s stock price has risen over 140%, and when expectations are pushed to the extreme, any flaw is infinitely magnified.
💎 Summary
SpaceX and AMD both delivered earnings that exceeded expectations on the same night, yet both faced sell-offs—the market has entered a phase of "not only good, but flawless." The peak of $100 billion share unlocks, soaring capex, and Q3 guidance falling short of aggressive expectations—these flaws ignored in a bull market have now become tools to hammer prices. As the AI sector moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," only "perfection" can satisfy investors. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Today's macro environment is actually not bad
BTC is currently still fluctuating repeatedly around $64,000
Gold has already broken upwards, but it hasn't shown a significant follow-through rise
This indicates that the funds currently being released are not prioritizing inflows into the crypto market.
Gold benefits from declining real interest rates and safe-haven funds
US tech stocks benefit from valuation recovery
BTC, however, needs more aggressive risk appetite and new incremental funds
Currently, funds are willing to buy gold for preservation and also willing to buy tech companies with cash flow, but they are not yet rushing back to lift BTC. This is the most genuine difference among the three asset types.
Assets that can't rise even with a macro tailwind usually won't be more resistant to declines when the wind stops
$BTC still has at least one major drop ahead. The dominant view remains bearish; the true bottom has not yet arrived 📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Express (August 5)
According to liquidation data, the shorts have been brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $893,100
Long position liquidations about $159,700
Short position liquidations about $733,400
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $10,642,000
Long position liquidations about $4,536,100
Short position liquidations about $6,105,800
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $14,101,000
Long position liquidations about $5,528,300
Short position liquidations about $8,572,700
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $19,666,000
Long position liquidations about $7,960,400
Short position liquidations about $11,705,600
From the $ETH liquidation data, short position liquidations in 1 hour crushed longs by 4.6 times, with a fierce short squeeze blitz at the start; the short advantage narrowed in 4 hours, ratio dropped to 1.35 times, short squeeze momentum marginally weakened; shorts regained strength in 12 hours, ratio rose to 1.55 times, short squeeze persisted through short to mid-term cycles; 24-hour short liquidations surged to $11.7 million, 1.47 times that of longs. The dog whales completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on ETH—shorts across short, mid, and long cycles were comprehensively targeted and liquidated, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $19.66 million. Shorts are bleeding heavily, and the short squeeze trend is unstoppable. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 5
Two hot topics today point to the same theme: the market is brutally repricing—"exceeding expectations" has become the baseline, and any flaw will be magnified.
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue Doubled, Stock Price Crashed
After market close on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report since listing. Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year surge, far exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion; net loss narrowed sharply from $1 billion to $541 million; adjusted EBITDA reached $3.538 billion, up 191% year-over-year. Management also gave a strong guidance aiming for a $100 billion ARR by year-end.
However, after-hours stock price plunged over 9%, wiping out more than $100 billion in market value.
The culprit for the plunge was capital expenditure—Q2 capex soared to $18.37 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year. The market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. Worse, about 911.5 million restricted shares will unlock on August 6, with shorts betting $24.6 billion. The clash between stellar earnings and soaring capex made investors vote with their feet.
💻 AMD: Best-Ever Earnings, Still Sold Off
On the same day after market close, AMD delivered its best-ever results. Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, a record high; data center revenue doubled to $6.7 billion, accounting for 58% of total revenue; adjusted EPS was $1.66, up 246% year-over-year.
After-hours stock price dropped over 9%.
Triple pressures hit simultaneously: Q3 revenue guidance around $13 billion, higher than some analysts’ forecasts but far below the aggressive $14 billion peak expectation; capex surged to $808 million, nearly triple last year’s same period; gaming revenue shrank 33% year-over-year to $779 million. Since 2026, AMD’s stock price has risen over 140%, and when expectations are pushed to the extreme, any flaw is magnified infinitely.
💎 Summary
SpaceX and AMD both delivered earnings that exceeded expectations on the same night, yet both faced sell-offs—the market has entered a phase of "not only good, but flawless." The flood of billion-dollar share unlocks, soaring capex, and Q3 guidance falling short of aggressive expectations—these flaws ignored in a bull market have now become weapons to hammer prices. As the AI sector moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," only "perfection" satisfies investors. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Night Session Countdown: When the Market Enters "Garbage Time"
Just finished boiling the third pot of water, and the fog on the window has already formed a continuous curtain of water. The floor no longer feels cold underfoot; the texture of the wood grain beneath my feet has long been dulled by repeated treading. My phone lit up again—no surprises, the push notification was still that old, tired "a certain whale transferred XX tokens," without even an exclamation mark in the headline.
Opening and closing the daily chart repeatedly. The price is like the cicadas in the afternoon—you know they're making noise, but when you listen closely, you can't grasp anything.
Actually, what drains people the most in the market is never the sharp crashes or rallies, but this kind of vague, indescribable "garbage time." You stare at it, and it doesn't move; you turn away to take a sip of water, and it still doesn't move. It's as if all participants are waiting for some "thing" that no one knows what it is to appear.
First, let's look at the directions still quietly gathering momentum today:
$BTC's daily volatility narrowed to within 1.2%, even more subdued than yesterday. In the derivatives market, the perpetual contract funding rate has stayed around 0.005% for six consecutive hours, with longs and shorts seemingly reading their own books in the same room, ignoring each other. The options market is even more extreme—the implied volatility for the next three days has dropped to the lowest level in two months. Friends at the trading desk say almost no new positions were opened today; it's all about rolling over and closing positions. The role of Bitcoin now is simple: as long as it doesn't crash, other matters can be discussed.
$ETH showed a small bubble today—median Gas briefly spiked to 8 before sliding back to 4, due to a "free mint" event by an NFT project. But on-chain checks show that 70% of participating addresses are studio bots. On the ETF side, although yesterday's net inflow was just over 1,200 tokens, it has been positive for six consecutive days. This pace is like dripping water into a cup—whether it fills or not is another matter, but the hand hasn't stopped. It now resembles a repeatedly reheated concentrate—bitter but still aromatic.
Today's real movers are the old DeFi players—
In $AAVE's V3 pool, the USDC borrowing rate quietly climbed to 4.2% today, nearly 60 basis points higher than last week. **$MKR's** DAI savings rate was also adjusted slightly upward, indicating active leverage on the lending side. On-chain tracking found that among the interacting addresses of these two protocols, more than a dozen "dormant for over two months" addresses reactivated today.
$LINK's cross-chain price feed calls remain above the daily peak line, holding a position in the entire on-chain data infrastructure like the main switch in a distribution box—usually unnoticed, but if power cuts once, the whole house goes dark.
There's also a hidden line: $PENDLE's YT (yield tokens) saw unusual trading volume today, with concentrated buying in pools expiring at the end of December. This is not retail activity but more like an address that "knows what it's doing" positioning for next year's interest rate expectations.
On the RWA narrative, $ONDO** had an address accumulate about 2 million tokens in seven transactions within four hours today, with little price movement, indicating absorption of "floating supply" from sell orders.** $ENS is similar, with four addresses each buying over 1,000 tokens in the past 24 hours—not rushing to accumulate but gradually probing.
Now, let's talk about the directions that clearly lost steam today:
The L2 sector collectively languished today.
In new public chains, $SUI**,** $SEI, and $APT** all underperformed the market, with their daily highs synchronously declining. Funds attracted earlier by concepts like "parallel execution" and "high TPS" are slowly but orderly withdrawing. **$TIA is also in this tier, with enthusiasm for the modular narrative being worn down by time.
Mining coins remain ignored today. $CRV**'s protocol weekly revenue dropped another 12% week-over-week, and the founder's address is still slowly offloading, tens of thousands of tokens at a time, like ants moving home. **$CAKE's ve model was revised, but community voting participation today was only 3.7%, a new low for the year.
In the DEX sector, $DYDX's derivatives trading volume noticeably declined today, with daily active trading addresses shrinking by 60% from last week's peak.
There are also some unclear, volatile positions:
$FXS**,** $CVX, and $INJ all traded sideways within a very narrow daily range, showing neither clear accumulation nor panic selling. This kind of movement is the most frustrating—you sell fearing a sudden rise, you buy fearing it will stay flat for three more months. The better strategy is to put them on the second page of your watchlist and wait for a clear direction before acting.
Looking at some mainstream moves today:
$SOL—after a nearly 5% intraday spike, it gave back almost all gains, closing up only 0.7%. Today's daily candle is a textbook case of a "false breakout": a quick morning rally to attract momentum traders, followed by slow distribution, with volume concentrated in the first two hours after open. This wick is unfriendly to short-term traders.
$AVAX—very quiet today, with volatility under 2.5%. No new developments in the subnet sector recently, but it has been sideways in the current price range for nearly two weeks, with sufficient chip exchange. No news is good news.
$MATIC—discussion about the POL upgrade was revived today on the governance forum, but the market showed no reaction. This "announcement immunity" state indicates it still needs a clearer catalyst.
$FET and $AGIX—the AI sector showed decent resilience today, with merger expectations still supporting sentiment. But note that this sector's correlation with US AI concept stocks is strengthening recently; if there's turbulence in US markets tonight, the Asia-Pacific session will likely feel the pressure first tomorrow.
Two sets of on-chain data today deserve special mention:
The first group is addresses with significant net inflows (within 24 hours): $PEPE, $ONDO, $LINK, $UNI, $AAVE, $MKR, $ENS, $LDO, $RNDR, $FET, $PENDLE.
The second group is addresses with expanding net outflows: $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $SUI, $SEI, $APT, $DYDX, $CRV, $CAKE, $WIF, $BONK, $FLOKI, $INJ, $TIA.
On-chain data is like shells left on the beach after the tide recedes; it tells you "something just passed here," but it doesn't guarantee it will return with the next high tide. Gold took off today. I had done a few swing trades around 4000 before, but recently I've been focusing all my energy on AI and haven't continued trading gold. I kind of regret it.
Especially yesterday when crude oil dropped, gold and silver hadn't moved yet. At that time, I thought about it but got distracted by the SPCX earnings report and forgot.
Speaking of the trigger for this round of gold's rise, it should be the drop in crude oil. Gold and oil have been hedging each other for a long time. Although there's a saying that under normal circumstances the two move in sync over the long term, since the US-Iran conflict started this year, they've mainly moved in opposite directions as a hedge.
Adding to that, tonight's weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls lowered rate hike expectations, so gold continued to rise accordingly.
Previously, the reason gold didn't break below 4000 was mainly due to central bank purchases, especially from China, providing support. With US Treasury yields continuously rising, buying gold to hedge against future dollar risks is extremely necessary.
Structurally, gold has been oscillating in the 4000-4100 range for over a month, forming a solid bottom. The resistance level is around 4330. Whether it can continue to push higher depends on this Friday's non-farm payroll data. $XAUT #Upside down Tiangang! Apple $AAPL $XAAPL, known for aggressive price cutting, was told "no" by Changxin Memory this time.
According to South Korean IT media reports, Apple recently negotiated with Changxin Memory for LPDDR5X and other mobile DRAM supplies, hoping to reduce the manufacturing costs of the next-generation iPhone and other smart devices by lowering purchase prices.
However, Changxin reportedly refused to lower prices in this negotiation and insisted that their quotes could not be lower than those of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
The core reason Changxin dares to reject Apple is that it already has enough orders in hand.
Domestic manufacturers like Huawei and Xiaomi have locked in capacity through long-term contracts in advance, allowing Changxin to avoid relying on low prices to win Apple’s orders.
In the past, suppliers competed for Apple; now Apple is competing for limited memory capacity.
The bigger background to this news is that AI is changing the global memory market.
Samsung and SK Hynix are shifting more resources toward high-margin products like HBM4 and enterprise SSDs, tightening the supply of regular DRAM accordingly.
Capacity is being absorbed by AI, naturally strengthening the bargaining power of memory manufacturers.
This may not just be an ordinary procurement negotiation but also signifies that Changxin is transitioning from a "low-price challenger" to a mainstream supplier with pricing confidence.
For Apple, procurement costs and supply chain diversification will face a new balance; for the memory industry, general DRAM prices may also receive further support.
However, neither Apple nor Changxin has publicly confirmed the negotiation details yet. Refusing to lower prices does not mean the cooperation is terminated. The final outcome will depend on the interplay of price, capacity, certification progress, and other factors. #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops 📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.08.05 (Wednesday)
📌 Core Judgments
**Oil prices fell below $80, temporarily easing inflation and Fed rate hike pressures; however, despite AMD's strong earnings report, its stock plunged after hours, indicating that the AI sector has entered a phase of "strong performance does not necessarily lead to price increases" due to high expectations.** The macro environment is improving, but tech stocks will increasingly focus on valuation and future guidance.
🔥 Today's Highlights
① AMD's strong earnings but stock price rally already priced in
AMD's revenue grew 50% year-over-year, data center business up 107%, AI chips and server orders remain robust, proving AI demand is spreading from Nvidia to secondary suppliers.
However, AMD dropped about 9% after hours, showing the market had overly high expectations. This earnings report is favorable for AI hardware and storage supply chains but may not be positive for AMD's short-term stock price.
② Storage stocks surge, real test is SanDisk's earnings
Micron rose about 7.6%, SanDisk about 10.9%, as the market re-trades AI servers, enterprise SSDs, and NAND demand.
SanDisk will release earnings early morning August 6 Beijing time, focusing on:
NAND average selling price and inventory;
Enterprise SSD demand;
Gross margin and next quarter guidance;
Commercialization progress of high-bandwidth flash HBF.
Since the stock price has already surged in advance, earnings merely "meeting expectations" could trigger a pullback similar to AMD's.
③ Samsung and SK Hynix continue expanding AI storage
Samsung launched V10 NAND with over 400 layers and showcased zHBM and zNAND products for AI inference; SK Hynix continues benefiting from HBM demand and jointly promotes HBF standards with SanDisk.
This indicates AI storage demand is expanding from HBM and DRAM further into NAND and enterprise SSDs, sustaining the long-term logic of the storage industry.
④ ChangXin is strong short-term, but long-term expansion remains a risk
ChangXin Technology trades around ¥56. The logic of domestic substitution and being the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer is clear, but current valuation still includes a high scarcity premium.
ChangXin's current market share is limited and won't cause severe industry oversupply short-term; however, simultaneous expansions by Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and ChangXin increase the risk of a downward storage cycle in 2027–2028.
⑤ Simple observations on BTC and HYPE
BTC returned above $64,000 but has yet to break $65,000, underperforming the Nasdaq. Holding above $65,000 is needed for a true bullish turn.
HYPE remains a high-volatility asset to watch; the platform's long-term logic is unchanged, but short-term positions and leverage should remain below BTC.
🥇 Commodities and Macro
Brent crude fell to about $79.6, helping reduce inflation and rate hike pressures, though diplomatic news could still cause rapid oil price rebounds.
Gold around $4,080; silver about $59.82, trending upward. Silver combines precious metal and industrial attributes, typically more volatile than gold.
💡 My View
**AI and storage demand have not weakened, but the market no longer rewards "simply good earnings"; it demands alignment of performance, valuation, and future guidance.** SanDisk's earnings tonight will be key to whether the storage sector can continue its rebound. It is not advisable to chase the rally based solely on a single-day surge before earnings.
In summary: The industry logic remains strong, but stock prices have entered a high-expectation phase; the most important factor now is future guidance, not how much was earned in the past quarter. The comment reflects a shift in trading focus rather than a strong directional call on Bitcoin.
Key takeaways:
Capital rotation: The trader says they have been focused on the highly volatile U.S. stock market, where earnings season has created more trading opportunities than crypto.
SanDisk earnings: They expect SanDisk's earnings after the market close to create volatility in semiconductor stocks, which could spill over into broader risk assets.
Returning to BTC: Saying they'll "place a Bitcoin trade to show some respect" sounds more like a lighthearted comment than a high-conviction bullish or bearish signal.
Market implication: If U.S. equities react positively to earnings and overall risk sentiment improves, BTC could benefit. Conversely, disappointing earnings or a broader risk-off move could pressure Bitcoin in the short term.
In short, this is not a Bitcoin-specific fundamental catalyst. It's a trader reallocating attention back to crypto after spending time trading earnings-driven stock volatility.
If you're trading BTC today, the more important factors to watch are:
1. U.S. earnings-driven risk sentiment.
2. ETF inflows/outflows.
3. Bitcoin's ability to hold key support and break nearby resistance with strong trading volume.
At the moment, Bitcoin continues to be influenced more by macro liquidity and institutional flows than by individual corporate earnings.
#DailyOrbit 🚨 Here's an unpopular opinion: We're not in a true altcoin season—at least not yet.
$BTC is still hovering around the $64K range, while most altcoins remain subdued. Aside from a handful of isolated winners, there's little evidence of broad-based sector rotation.
Why?
Because meaningful new capital hasn't entered the market.
In a liquidity-constrained environment, crypto becomes a zero-sum game. Capital simply rotates from one asset to another instead of expanding across the entire market. A few tokens outperform, but most are left behind.
Historically, a sustainable altcoin season tends to follow a familiar sequence:
1️⃣ Bitcoin establishes stability and confirms its trend.
2️⃣ Fresh capital enters the market, improving overall liquidity.
3️⃣ Liquidity rotates into Ethereum, major altcoins, and eventually higher-risk sectors.
Right now, we're still waiting for that process to fully unfold.
Without expanding liquidity, many "breakouts" struggle to gain traction, and chasing every new 100x narrative often ends up benefiting early sellers more than late buyers.
📊 My Current View
This market looks more like a low-volume accumulation phase than the beginning of a broad altcoin rally.
Until liquidity expands and participation broadens, selectivity and patience remain your biggest advantages.
Sometimes the best trade isn't finding the next big winner—it's preserving capital until the probabilities shift decisively in your favor.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #Altcoins #Crypto #Trading #MarketCycle #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates $ETH Many people speculate on ETH focusing only on daily price fluctuations, but they overlook a core long-term theme: Ethereum's institutional adoption process.
BTC's narrative is digital gold, a store of value; while ETH's long-term growth is highly tied to traditional financial institutions continuously onboarding and tokenized assets being realized. These two track logics are continuously diverging.
1. Current progress in three core pillars of institutional adoption
1. Compliance investment channels taking shape: Staking ETFs open interest-bearing capital entry
Staking Ethereum ETFs like BlackRock's ETHB have officially launched, providing traditional asset managers with a dual tool of compliance plus staking yield.
For long-term funds such as pensions and family offices, ETH is no longer just a price speculation target but a digital asset that can continuously generate cash flow.
Unlike spot ETFs, staking products directly meet institutions' yield demands, continuously guiding funds to lock up long-term, reducing secondary market selling pressure.
2. Large-scale global banks testing on-chain asset settlement
JPMorgan, Société Générale, UBS, and Deutsche Bank continue piloting on Ethereum: tokenized government bonds, money market funds, on-chain repo business.
Most RWA projects tokenizing US Treasuries (like Ondo) are built on Ethereum.
The core reason institutions choose Ethereum: EVM is a global standard, stablecoin ecosystem is mature, and settlement security has been proven through years of bull and bear markets.
Institutions need not hype public chains but a trusted cross-border settlement infrastructure.
3. Official organizations improving, systematic Wall Street integration
In early July, the independent nonprofit Ethereum Institutional was officially established as a unified interface for Ethereum to global financial institutions.
Previously, institutions had to separately engage with the Foundation and various protocol teams; now with a neutral unified interface, communication and compliance costs for banks and large asset managers are greatly reduced, marking a shift from spontaneous exploration to systematic institutional onboarding.
2. Why are institutions willing to allocate ETH? Core underlying logic
1. Asset attribute differentiation
BTC: scarce reserve asset;
ETH: combines value storage + staking cash flow + smart contract infrastructure. Institutions deploying tokenized assets and stablecoin businesses cannot bypass Ethereum.
2. Atomic settlement solves traditional finance pain points
Traditional cross-border clearing involves multiple intermediaries, long cycles, and high counterparty risk. Ethereum smart contracts enable instant transaction settlement, eliminating intermediary counterparty risk, which is the core driver for banks' ongoing pilots.
3. Staking economy builds long-term value foundation
The continuously growing staking volume absorbs circulating ETH from the market. Institutional funds prefer long-term staking for stable returns, while spot market circulating supply shrinks. Exchange ETH balances remain historically low, a direct signal of institutions steadily accumulating.
3. Two major risks must be acknowledged; do not be blindly optimistic
⚠️ Regulatory uncertainty remains the biggest obstacle
The US SEC still maintains an ambiguous stance on ETH staking services and securities classification. If strict regulations are introduced, it will directly delay US institutional entry. Regulatory policies vary by country, making a unified compliance framework unlikely in the short term.
⚠️ Institutional adoption is a slow variable, not an immediate price driver
Bank and large asset manager project timelines are generally measured in years. Institutional adoption is a long-term fundamental catalyst and will not trigger a unilateral bull market from a single news event.
Short-term market trends remain dominated by Federal Reserve rate expectations and overall market sentiment; do not rely solely on institutional narratives to heavily speculate on short-term prices.
4. Trading perspective summary
Institutional adoption progress determines ETH's mid-to-long-term valuation ceiling but cannot control short-term volatility.
✅ Long-term opportunities: continuously track staking ETF capital flows, large bank tokenization project launches, and RWA asset scale growth;
⚠️ Short-term strategy: do not prematurely bet on positive outcomes. Only after signals of sustained incremental capital inflows are verified will institutional narratives fully reflect in price.
In the long run:
BTC competes for global digital reserve asset share;
ETH competes for the next-generation global financial settlement layer.
The pace of institutional adoption directly determines the outcome of this long-term competition.
$ETH $BTC $ONDO #RWA$DOGE $SOL #临时通航协议待落地，油价风险尚未反转
Previous excessive gains and valuation pressure: SanDisk's stock price has risen about 500% since the beginning of the year. Although it experienced a nearly 47% deep correction in July, the current stock price remains high.
● Extremely high market expectation threshold: The market has very high expectations for this earnings report. If the final results only "meet guidance" without "significantly exceeding the upper limit of guidance," or if management's outlook for fiscal year 2027 is conservative, the market may interpret this as a signal of slowing growth, triggering a new round of sell-off.
● Concerns about the cycle peaking: Some bearish logic believes that current prices and profits of storage chips are at historical highs. With the narrowing increase in DRAM prices and some manufacturers' plans to increase production, NAND prices may face downward pressure.📊 $DOGE Contract Liquidation Express (August 5)
According to liquidation data, short-term shorts were crushed hard, but mid-to-long-term longs suffered a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $540.09
Long liquidations about $25.56
Short liquidations about $514.53
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $247,300
Long liquidations about $228,800
Short liquidations about $18,500
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $260,600
Long liquidations about $239,900
Short liquidations about $20,600
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $366,100
Long liquidations about $318,400
Short liquidations about $47,800
From the $DOGE liquidation data, in the 1-hour window, short liquidations crushed longs by 20 times, with a fierce short squeeze blitz at the start; in 4 hours, the direction suddenly reversed, with long liquidations crushing shorts by 12 times, triggering a full-scale long liquidation; the 12-hour long advantage continued at about 11.6 times, with long liquidations spanning short to mid cycles; in 24 hours, long liquidations surged to $318,400, 6.6 times that of shorts. The DOGE whales completed a ruthless turnaround from short squeeze to long liquidation — short-term short chasers were targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term long chasers were wiped out, with total liquidations exceeding $360,000. Everyone, control your positions well and avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 5
Two hot topics today point to the same theme: the market is brutally repricing — "exceeding expectations" has become the baseline, and any flaw will be magnified.
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue Doubled, Stock Price Crashed
After market close on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report since listing. Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year surge, far exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion; net loss narrowed sharply from $1 billion to $541 million; adjusted EBITDA reached $3.538 billion, up 191% year-over-year. Management also gave a strong guidance aiming for a $100 billion ARR by year-end.
However, after-hours stock price plunged over 9%, wiping out more than $100 billion in market value.
The culprit for the plunge was capital expenditure — Q2 capex soared to $18.37 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year. The market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. Worse, about 911.5 million restricted shares will unlock on August 6, with shorts betting $24.6 billion. The clash between stellar performance and soaring capex made investors vote with their feet.
💻 AMD: Best-Ever Earnings, Still Sold Off
On the same day after market close, AMD delivered its best-ever results. Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, a record high; data center revenue doubled to $6.7 billion, accounting for 58% of total revenue; adjusted EPS was $1.66, up 246% year-over-year.
After-hours stock price dropped over 9%.
Triple pressures hit simultaneously: Q3 revenue guidance of about $13 billion, though above some analyst estimates, was far below the aggressive $14 billion peak expectation; capex surged to $808 million, nearly triple last year’s same period; gaming revenue shrank 33% year-over-year to $779 million. Since 2026, AMD’s stock price has risen over 140%. When expectations are pushed to the extreme, any flaw will be infinitely magnified.
💎 Summary
SpaceX and AMD both delivered earnings that exceeded expectations on the same night, yet both faced sell-offs — the market has entered a phase of "not only good, but flawless." The flood of billion-dollar share unlocks, soaring capex, and Q3 guidance falling short of aggressive expectations — these flaws ignored in a bull market have now become weapons to hammer prices. As the AI sector moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," only "perfection" can satisfy investors. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ $SNDK This trend is truly tempting. Short positions placed near 1331 have now pushed the price to 1468, with an unrealized loss of 136 points. Honestly, watching the market move against your position makes anyone question their life, but calming down and breaking down the logic behind the rebound actually makes your thinking clearer. This round of rally is not baseless. The implementation of high-bandwidth flash memory standards has effectively painted a new pie for the market. Coupled with the easing of geopolitical risks, oil prices plunged 6% in a single day, and US risk appetite has been maxed out, turning the storage sector into an outlet for capital. SanDisk rose over 10% in a single day, closing above $1,427, clearly igniting bullish sentiment. Looking at the fundamentals, Q4 earnings expectations are quite impressive, with the market eyeing $8.39 billion in revenue and $34.8 in earnings per share. The past four quarters' repeated performances have encouraged investors to place bets early. Institutions weren't idle either. RBC and Stifel set target prices of $200 and $240 respectively. The Philadelphia semiconductor index strengthened for four consecutive days, so it's no surprise that bears were crushed in this atmosphere. But the 1468 level has a different significance. It just broke through the short-term resistance at 1430, and the real tough challenge lies between 1510 and 1540. Moreover, the 50-day moving average is at the high of 1707, and the rebound has only recovered about 30% of the space since the 998 low, so structurally, it cannot be called a reversal. $BTC and $ETH rebounded simultaneously today. The overall warmer environment has given the storage sector confidence, but don't treat the rebound as a trend. If the position remains and the structure hasn't broken, then handle it according to established discipline, not because of a big one-day bullish candleIntesa Sanpaolo sharply reduced its IBIT exposure in Q2, cutting shares by 93.7% and lowering call-option exposure from a 2.50M share equivalent to 18K. It also added put exposure equivalent to 500K shares.
At the same time, its position in BlackRock's staked spot ETH ETF nearly tripled to 349,600 shares. The filing points to a broad portfolio repositioning toward ETH exposure and more defensive Bitcoin derivatives, not one isolated sale.
NFA, just my read.
#DailyOrbit
#EarningsRealityCheck
#SpaceXBeatEstimates
#AMDBeatsButDrops $ONDO Major Personnel Announcement! ONDO Completes Top Financial Executive Team, Accelerating the Era of RWA Institutions
Latest news: The absolute leader in the RWA sector, Ondo Finance, officially announces a personnel upgrade, appointing Adam Schlisman as the company's Chief Financial Officer (CFO).
What seems like an ordinary personnel announcement is actually one of ONDO's most important fundamental reinforcements this year, with a highly valuable signal.
1. New CFO Background: Pure Wall Street + Top Crypto Dual Endorsement
Adam Schlisman's resume is a perfect match for institutional top-tier:
- Nearly a decade at traditional macro hedge fund Graham Capital
- Former CFO at major asset manager Monashee Investment Management
- Head of finance, treasury, and risk control at leading platform Blockchain.com
Years of deep traditional finance experience + full cycle of crypto bull and bear risk management
Executives with this background rarely join ordinary second-tier projects.
Being recruited by Ondo directly indicates:
The project's current goal is no longer "story hype" but connecting with top Wall Street capital, compliance standardization, and scaled expansion.
2. Why is this appointment crucial? (Deep Logic)
This year ONDO experienced two major events:
1. Founder unexpectedly passed away, causing market concerns about team disruption and institutional cooperation stalling
2. Official reports of evaluating a $250 million to $500 million acquisition plan, preparing for major expansion
On one hand, management replacement and rebuilding institutional trust
On the other, preparing large capital operations and acquisition expansion
A senior financial CFO is the key piece for these two moves.
Institutional capital entry values three things most:
Financial transparency, risk control system, capital operation capability
Adam's joining directly fills ONDO's weakest link:
"Traditional finance-level compliance and fund management system"
3. Sector-level Signal: RWA Completely Leaves Behind Amateur Narratives, Enters the Professional Era
Early crypto projects had executives mostly from tech, operations, and community backgrounds.
But now top RWA projects have completely changed their approach:
- Recruiting Wall Street asset management executives
- Introducing traditional finance risk control talent
- Building standardized financial reporting, auditing, and fund segregation systems
- Adapting to the strong regulatory environment of US Treasury and US stock tokenization
ONDO's recruitment this time represents the entire sector's upgrade:
RWA is no longer about on-chain storytelling
It is about real traditional financial assets on-chain, professional players entering, and hundreds of billions in capital relay
4. Market Perspective: Separate Short-term Sentiment from Long-term Fundamentals
✅ Long-term super positive
- More stable team structure, institutional trust restored
- Laying groundwork for future financing, acquisitions, and large asset management cooperation
- Solidifying leadership in the US Treasury tokenization sector
⚠️ Do not blindly chase highs in the short term
Personnel news is a slow-moving fundamental factor
It will not trigger violent price moves in a single day
The real breakout points lie ahead:
- Acquisition implementation news
- New rounds of institutional cooperation announcements
- Continued record highs in US Treasury tokenization scale
5. Summary: ONDO is Following the "True Sector Leader Path"
Ordinary projects: rely on market trends, hot topics, hype
Top projects: rely on team, compliance, institutions, and continuous execution
Today's personnel announcement seems plain,
But it is actually a prelude to a new round of RWA market momentum.
The sector trend is very clear:
Traditional financial asset on-chain is the biggest certainty in crypto for the coming years.
And ONDO always stands at the core position.
$ONDO #RWA #OnChainAssets #CryptoFundamentals$DOGE $SNDK $BEAT 📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 5)
According to liquidation data, the shorts have been brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $8.9806 million
Long liquidations about $372,400
Short liquidations about $8.6083 million
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $22.7238 million
Long liquidations about $3.0328 million
Short liquidations about $19.691 million
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $27.0914 million
Long liquidations about $4.1699 million
Short liquidations about $22.9215 million
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $50.3365 million
Long liquidations about $7.2475 million
Short liquidations about $43.0891 million
From the $BTC liquidation data, short liquidations in 1 hour crushed longs by 23 times, a short squeeze blitzkrieg with nuclear-level intensity at the start; the short advantage continued over 4 hours with a ratio of about 6.5 times, a full outbreak of short squeeze; shorts still far ahead over 12 hours with a ratio of about 5.5 times, short squeeze spanning short to mid cycles; 24-hour short liquidations surged to $43.08 million, nearly 6 times that of longs. The dog whales have completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on BTC—shorts across short, mid, and long cycles were comprehensively targeted and blasted, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $50.33 million. Shorts are bleeding heavily, and the short squeeze momentum is unstoppable. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 5
Two hot topics today point to the same theme: the market is brutally repricing—"exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, and any flaw will be magnified.
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue Doubled, Stock Price Crashed
After market close on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report since going public. Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year surge, far exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion; net loss narrowed sharply from $1 billion to $541 million; adjusted EBITDA reached $3.538 billion, a 191% year-over-year increase. Management also gave a strong guidance aiming for a $100 billion ARR by year-end.
However, after-hours stock price plunged over 9%, wiping out more than $100 billion in market value.
The culprit for the plunge was capital expenditure—Q2 capex soared to $18.37 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year. The market rewards spending efficiency, not the speed of burning cash. Worse, about 911.5 million restricted shares will unlock on August 6, with shorts already betting $24.6 billion. The clash between stellar performance and soaring capex made investors vote with their feet.
💻 AMD: Best-Ever Earnings, Still Sold Off
On the same day after market close, AMD delivered its best-ever results. Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, a record high; data center revenue doubled to $6.7 billion, accounting for 58% of total revenue; adjusted EPS was $1.66, up 246% year-over-year.
After-hours stock price dropped over 9%.
Triple pressures hit simultaneously: Q3 revenue guidance around $13 billion, higher than some analysts’ forecasts but far below the aggressive $14 billion peak expectation; capex surged to $808 million, nearly triple last year’s same period; gaming revenue shrank 33% year-over-year to $779 million. Since 2026, AMD’s stock price has risen over 140%, and when expectations are pushed to the extreme, any flaw is infinitely magnified.
💎 Summary
SpaceX and AMD both delivered earnings that exceeded expectations on the same night but were sold off— the market has entered a phase of "not only good, but flawless." The flood of billion-dollar share unlocks, soaring capex, and Q3 guidance falling short of aggressive expectations—these flaws ignored in a bull market have now become weapons to hammer prices down. As the AI sector moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," only "perfection" can satisfy investors. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ SNDK's strength is due to BTC· Relative strength against ETH is clear. Why did the major cryptocurrency remain flat while tokenized stock SNDK surged 10.8%? SNDK's move is seen as a signal of cross-market capital allocation, going beyond a single stock event. If profit opportunities in the tokenized stock market become relatively prominent compared to traditional cryptocurrencies, there is a possibility that some risk-averse funds that were previously headed for BTC and ETH in the short term may be redistributed into these assets. However, it is more accurate to interpret this as a relative strength difference within the same risk budget rather than a liquidity outflow. - Key Fact: SNDK confirmed the $1,340 support level within 24 hours and rebounded to $1,427.62, rising 10.8%. The trading range ranged from $1,340 to $1,446, with volume increasing simultaneously. - Expectations reflected in pricing: Expectations for improved performance driven by increased demand for AI infrastructure were preemptively reflected. Despite profit-taking across the AI infrastructure sector, derivatives positions and institutional funds maintained these expectations.Live Trading Notes｜An Experiment Holding a Position Without Stop Loss
Currently still holding a $ETH long position, entry price 1857, current market price 1872, unrealized profit 44U.
After much contemplation, this time I plan to temporarily remove the stop loss condition and hold the position firmly.
In past trades, stop losses have indeed helped me protect a lot of unrealized profits, but there were also many times when the directional judgment was correct, yet I was shaken out by short-term volatility, missing out on a large subsequent move.
Previously, I painfully exited $SNDK at 1167, and the next day the price surged directly to 1456; also with that $ETH short, I took profit at 1876, but the price later dropped to 1840 before rebounding to 1900.
Every stop loss preserved tens of U in profit, but reviewing the trades, if I had held on, the final results would have been much better than exiting early.
So this time I want to try a different approach.
Entry cost 1857, estimated liquidation point at 1813, leaving a 44U safety buffer, and the account margin of 155U can withstand this round of volatility.
The 44U unrealized profit on paper, even if fully lost, can be treated as if this trade never happened.
If I can hold for 3-7 trading days and the price moves up to 1900, 1950, or even higher, then this persistence in holding the position will have meaning.
This is not a stubborn gamble, but a self-verification:
I want to find out whether the loss from being shaken out despite correct directional judgment is greater, or the loss from holding on stubbornly is greater. This trade will serve as a test sample.
Today $SNDK surged to a high of 1456, which inevitably brings some disappointment.
Just yesterday I stopped out at 1167, and in one day the price rose nearly 300 points. Selling right before the surge creates a sense of loss even more mentally taxing than a direct loss.
However, the 4-hour candlestick is approaching the previous resistance high at 1483. Chasing in now would be like jumping into a new risk trap using the 26U loss as a lesson.
That 26U can be seen as a risk premium, which prevented liquidation below 1120. The trading rules protected the account principal, so there should be no questioning of discipline afterward.
On the other hand, XAAU gold price continues to surge, up 1.5%, approaching 4158.
But BTC and $ETH have not followed gold’s strength, showing independent divergent trends. The unilateral strength of gold cannot be used as a basis to add to crypto longs; different asset classes move independently.
Current status: continue holding ETH, resist the temptation from $SNDK’s surge, and do not chase the hot gold market.
This time no stop loss is set, no frequent monitoring, just quietly holding the position and waiting for the outcome.
Whether profit or loss, it will be the answer this experiment provides.Major personnel update! ONDO fills top financial executive role, officially accelerating the RWA institutional era
Latest news: The absolute leader in the RWA sector, Ondo Finance, officially announces a personnel upgrade, appointing Adam Schlisman as the company's Chief Financial Officer (CFO).
What seems like an ordinary personnel announcement is actually one of ONDO's most important fundamental reinforcements this year, with a highly valuable signal.
1. New CFO background: Pure Wall Street + top-tier crypto dual endorsement
Adam Schlisman's resume is a perfect match for "institutional elite":
- Nearly a decade at traditional macro hedge fund Graham Capital
- Former CFO at major asset manager Monashee Investment Management
- Head of finance, treasury, and risk control at leading platform Blockchain.com
Years of deep traditional finance experience + full cycle of crypto bull and bear risk management
Executives with this background rarely join ordinary second-tier projects.
Being recruited by Ondo directly indicates:
The project's current goal is no longer "story hype" but connecting with top Wall Street capital, compliance standardization, and scaled expansion.
2. Why is this appointment crucial? (Deep logic)
This year ONDO experienced two major events:
1. Founder unexpectedly passed away, causing market concerns about team disruption and institutional cooperation stalling
2. Official reports of evaluating a $250 million to $500 million acquisition plan, preparing for major expansion
On one side, management replacement and rebuilding institutional trust
On the other, preparing large capital operations and acquisition expansion
A senior financial CFO is the key piece for these two moves.
Institutional capital entry values three things most:
Financial transparency, risk control system, capital operation capability
Adam's joining directly fills ONDO's weakest link:
"Traditional finance-grade compliance and fund management system"
3. Sector-level signal: RWA completely leaves behind amateur narratives, entering the professional era
Early crypto projects had executives mostly from tech, operations, and community backgrounds.
But now top RWA projects have completely changed their approach:
- Recruiting Wall Street asset management executives
- Introducing traditional finance risk control talent
- Building standardized financial reporting, auditing, and fund segregation systems
- Adapting to the strong regulatory environment of US Treasury and US stock tokenization
ONDO's recruitment this time represents the entire sector's upgrade:
RWA is no longer about on-chain storytelling
It is about real traditional financial assets on-chain, professional players entering, and hundreds of billions in capital relay
4. Market perspective: separate short-term sentiment from long-term fundamentals
✅ Long-term super positive
- More stable team structure, institutional trust restored
- Laying groundwork for future financing, acquisitions, and large asset management cooperation
- Solidifying leadership in the US Treasury tokenization sector
⚠️ Do not blindly chase highs in the short term
Personnel news is a slow-moving fundamental factor
It will not trigger violent price moves in a single day
The real breakout points lie ahead:
- Acquisition deal announcements
- New rounds of institutional cooperation announcements
- Continued record growth in US Treasury tokenization scale
5. Summary: ONDO is following the "true sector leader path"
Ordinary projects: rely on market trends, hot topics, hype
Top projects: rely on team, compliance, institutions, and continuous execution
Today's personnel announcement seems plain,
But it is actually a prelude to a new round of RWA market momentum.
The sector trend is very clear:
Traditional financial asset on-chain is the biggest certainty in crypto over the next few years.
And ONDO has always stood at the core position.
$ONDO #RWA #OnChainAssets #CryptoFundamentals$DOGE $SNDK $BEAT $AMD earnings report: Management expects CPU revenue to still grow by more than 70% in 2027, continuing growth on a higher base.
AI GPUs can rapidly scale revenue, but new product ramp-up, HBM, and whole system costs will all impact gross margin.
EPYC is relatively mature, with a more diversified customer base and more stable profitability.
EPYC is AMD's CPU brand targeting servers and data centers, mainly competing against Intel's Xeon.
The fundamentals of the CPU segment are solid; the issue still lies with long-term interest rates.
$INTC $ARM In the past hour, SanDisk $SNDK on-chain contracts have been mainly short positions
The 15-minute candlestick once dropped to 1365
Let's first look at Wall Street's consensus expectations before the earnings release:
1. Revenue: 7.75-8.25 billion, market consensus median 8 billion, company's original guidance range 7.75-8.25 billion
2. Non-GAAP EPS: 30-33 dollars, institutions optimistically expect 34-35 dollars
3. Non-GAAP gross margin: 79%-81% (historically very high level)
From the current market supply and demand, NAND flash memory is in short supply
Several AI giants, such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, Google, etc., have AI demand driving SanDisk's rise $NVDA $GOOGL
From a long-term perspective, the market still lacks memory
But in the short term, SanDisk's stock price has already experienced a huge increase, and the current price around 1400 already includes institutional expectations for this earnings report
If any data in the earnings report fails to meet expectations, SanDisk may experience a "flash crash"
Therefore, the tolerance for errors in tonight's earnings report is very low
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
#临时通航协议待落地，油价风险尚未反转 Intesa Sanpaolo sharply reduced its IBIT exposure in Q2, cutting shares by 93.7% and lowering call-option exposure from a 2.50M share equivalent to 18K. It also added put exposure equivalent to 500K shares.
At the same time, its position in BlackRock's staked spot ETH ETF nearly tripled to 349,600 shares. The filing points to a broad portfolio repositioning toward ETH exposure and more defensive Bitcoin derivatives, not one isolated sale.
NFA, just my read.
#DailyOrbit Arthur Hayes' "AI Credit Bubble" Theory — The Biggest Macro Narrative of 2026
$BTC mentioned Arthur Hayes' view — an AI-driven credit bubble and future monetary easing could be beneficial for Bitcoin. Hayes compares AI capital expenditure to a 2008-style credit cycle.
Here's my translation: Tech giants are borrowing heavily to build AI infrastructure, which is very similar to the real estate bubble before 2008. Once the bubble bursts, the Fed will have to print money to rescue the market — and printing money is the biggest positive for Bitcoin. Although Hayes often exaggerates, his macro framework is correct — at this stage of the global debt cycle, either inflation dilutes the debt, or central banks monetize the debt by printing money. Either way, Bitcoin is the winner.
Strategy Six: From the second half of 2026 to 2027, the biggest narrative won't be "halving" or "ETF," but "global liquidity shift." Watch oil prices and government bond yields — if oil prices fall below $80, the Fed has room to ease; if yields fall below 4%, Bitcoin can take off. Brothers, the most magical scene tonight — US tech stocks have already gone crazy, but our BTC is still lying dead at 64,100. This failure to rise is what we should really fear.
First, the data: semiconductor leveraged ETF XSOXL +4.1%, triple short Nasdaq XSNDK +2.74% (indicating Nasdaq really rose), S&P XSPY +1.88%, external risk-on signals are back. But BTC? +0.315%, volume cut again by 41.9%, open interest frozen at 107,100 BTC, fear gauge at 27. US stocks are soaring like this and BTC still doesn’t move; the previous excuse of "US stocks strong outside but weak inside" no longer holds — now US stocks are genuinely strong.
Setting the tone: I used to say "macro hasn’t served the meal" as an excuse for BTC’s dead silence. Tonight the data slaps that in the face — the meal is served, but the crypto circle itself refuses to eat. The root problem is internal: spot buying vacuum, leverage frozen, money only circulating in lone survivors like GRVT, no one is catching the main market.
The most solid proof from capital flow: volume -41.9% and still shrinking, the previous round’s +244% huge volume has long disappeared. OI at 107,100 is completely still = both bulls and bears are lying flat and not playing. No matter how lively the outside is, inside it’s a dead pool, price can only grind on inertia.
Back to crypto positioning: for BTC this means "external can’t save internal." Not following the rise is hedging, following the rise but not moving means internal is dead. Macro bullishness now is just emotional MSG, not real buying.
Here’s something actionable — the "Three Tests of Failed Follow-Up" diagnostic framework: ① External risk-on returns (BTC should rise) but BTC doesn’t = main cause is internal, not external, don’t foolishly wait for macro rescue; ② volume still shrinking, OI frozen = internal buying vacuum, it’s not that no one watches but no one is buying with real money; ③ rescue depends on BTC’s own volume-price recovery (OI expansion/volume normalization), external red numbers are just MSG.
Real review: my GRVT long (+24.6% leading gains, unrealized +2.38%) opened at 20:00 and my script-opened XSPCX short (-7.2%, unrealized +0.89%) are both green, but in the "main market failed follow-up" storyline, these two trades are just noise — making money from small caps, not beta.
Heartbreaking conclusion: the most dangerous thing is not BTC falling, it’s that US stocks are crazily rising and BTC doesn’t follow. This situation can’t be saved externally, we can only wait for BTC’s volume to come back first. If volume doesn’t return, macro bullishness is useless.
Friends, do you think BTC is "waiting for an internal catalyst" or "already dead and unmovable"? Let’s chat in the comments, if I’m wrong I’ll take it as a contrarian indicator. Tomorrow watch if volume can normalize; if not, it will keep playing dead.
Crypto assets are high risk, this article is not investment advice, purely personal opinion.
$BTC $XSOXL #FailedFollowUp #InternalLiquidity #MacroDivergence #RiskControlStrategy #TradingSystem #BeginnerGuide #MarketAnalysis #OKXPlanetBTC sideways consolidation hides a shift in capital! Long-term holdings slow down, ETFs continue to accumulate, whales transfer to exchanges, bulls and bears about to decide the direction $BTC
Bitcoin is currently still trapped in a narrow range between $62,000 and $65,000. The market seems calm, but authoritative on-chain data from CryptoQuant and Farside show clear divergence signals: the pace of accumulation by long-term holders is slowing, US spot ETFs have steady net inflows, and Binance whale transfers have risen to a four-month high. The supply-demand structure is quietly shifting. Below is a detailed breakdown of the current real market landscape.
1. Long-term holdings: After historically massive lock-ups, the accumulation phase officially slows
1) Current holdings
In this bull market, long-term holders have repeatedly sold high and bought low, slightly reducing at highs and buying back on dips. They currently hold nearly 16 million BTC, with holdings stabilized at a historic high level. Most market chips are locked by steadfast holders, so circulating selling pressure is inherently weak.
2) Latest key changes
The months-long active accumulation pace has stopped, and total holdings have slightly declined. Simply put: long-term whales are no longer blindly buying the dip; they have entered a neutral phase of staged profit-taking and chip rotation. The supply side has shifted from unilateral accumulation to stable circulation.
3) Cycle comparison highlights this round’s uniqueness
Historical intervals between three bull market build-ups: 8 months in 2013, 17 months in 2017, 16 months in 2021. This cycle’s grinding phase has extended to 31 months, significantly slowing the overall market rhythm, with no basis for rapid unilateral surges.
2. Institutional buying remains strong: ETF single-day net inflow exceeds $210 million, BlackRock remains the main capital attractor
Institutional funds continue to be the strongest and most stable market support:
On August 4, the US spot BTC ETF had a single-day net inflow of $211.49 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the market. IBIT’s total holdings have surpassed $51.579 billion, showing no decline in large-scale allocation appetite.
Continuous ETF buying will keep absorbing circulating market chips, which is the core confidence for the market to hold the bottom range for a long time. As long as institutional funds do not have sustained large outflows, the probability of a deep crash is relatively low.
3. Risk warning: Binance whale transfer ratio hits a near four-month high, potential selling pressure needs caution
CryptoQuant analyst data: Binance platform BTC large whale transfer ratio rose to 0.52, a near four-month high.
Indicator meaning
This data counts the proportion of large holders’ chips transferred into exchanges. A rising value means many whales are moving BTC from wallets to exchanges, theoretically increasing potential selling pressure.
Rational view, no need to directly call a top
Historically, this value’s spike has appeared both before staged corrections and during bottom accumulation phases. It should only be treated as a risk observation signal, not a single bearish indicator.
Currently, it essentially reflects whales starting flexible swing operations; long-term base holdings have not been massively liquidated.
4. Price key range locked
Current price oscillates between $62,000 and $65,000, with $64,000 as the short-term bull-bear dividing line:
✅ Holding above $64,000: market buying confidence recovers, likely to test the key resistance at $67,000;
❌ Breaking below $62,000 support: bears regain dominance, likely triggering a new round of deep pullback and shakeout.
5. Comprehensive market summary and practical strategy
1) Market summary
Bullish support: continuous ETF institutional net inflows, long-term whale base holdings locked, solid bottom support;
Bearish risks: long-term accumulation stagnates, some whale chips transferred to exchanges awaiting realization, selling pressure gradually accumulates above;
Overall, the market is in a balanced transition window between bulls and bears, maintaining range-bound oscillation without strong catalysts.
2) Practical advice
Spot: Do not chase highs or sell lows within the range; on dips below 62,000, accumulate in small batches; near 64,500-65,000 resistance, moderately reduce positions;
Futures: Strictly control leverage in the choppy market; set stop losses around 62,000 and 64,000 key levels; avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves.
$ETH $SNDK $BEAT #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 #临时通航协议待落地，油价风险尚未反转 Regulatory uncertainty around the CLARITY Act may be weighing more heavily on $COIN and $CRCL than on $BTC .
On July 21, improving ethics-related headlines coincided with roughly:
• $BTC: +3%
• $COIN, $CRCL, and a DeFi index: around +9%
That doesn't prove causation. Nasdaq strength, an Asian semiconductor rally, and a fifth consecutive day of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows were also supporting risk assets.
Still, the difference in market sensitivity is worth paying attention to.
Coinbase illustrates why.
In Q1, the company generated $305M in stablecoin revenue—about 23% of net revenue—while recording $113M in USDC rewards expenses.
If regulatory provisions such as Section 10404, which addresses customer USDC rewards, remain uncertain, the impact is likely to be felt more by stablecoin-linked equities and DeFi projects than by Bitcoin itself.
Policy risk isn't distributed evenly—and understanding where it's concentrated can provide a meaningful edge.
$BTC $COIN $CRCL
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