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Just saw the app revenue rankings for the past 24 hours, a bit surprising.
The top four are all from the Solana ecosystem, with Hyperliquid's 379,000 only ranking fifth 😂
First place is Pump, 1.46 million.
No need to introduce this much, it's a veteran tool for launching Memes on Solana. In the last round, who knows how many golden dogs it created; once Meme starts going crazy, it basically benefits the most directly.
Second place is Axiom, 656,000.
Many people might not have paid much attention to this one; it deals with on-chain derivatives, and its recent data has been climbing steadily. Simply put, it’s about doing forex, commodities, and such on-chain, somewhat like bringing traditional financial plays onto the blockchain.
Third place is Collector Crypt, 437,000.
This one is quite interesting, turning NFT trading into a kind of "card pack opening" gameplay. You can draw cards while trading, with a heavy gamification aspect. Users on Solana seem to really like this.
Fourth place is Fomo, 423,000.
Just by the name, you can guess what it’s about 😂
Buying others’ keys and earning commissions, essentially still a battle for attention. When the market heats up, these kinds of things often become active again.
Looking at these four together is actually quite interesting:
Meme, leverage, card drawing, social speculation.
They basically cover the main scenarios where retail investors are most likely to spend money.
On the other hand, looking at Hyperliquid, although it was "beaten" to fifth place by the Solana app group this time, I don’t think it’s too surprising.
After all, Hype is still an independent L1, and its ecosystem is still slowly building. Comparing a single chain directly with so many mature apps on Solana in terms of daily revenue isn’t exactly fair.
But this ranking does reveal a pretty interesting signal:
Retail money is still very willing to rush into Solana.
Whether this means Solana is really that strong, or Hyperliquid needs to find a new story to attract funds back...
I’m quite curious to see what happens next 😂Make it concise and strong crypto-Twitter style:
Every trade needs a time limit to count. ⏳
Next Bitcoin bull run? $MSTR might not outperform anymore.
1️⃣ Volatility
BTC doubling means ~$130K.
$MSTR doubling from ~$100 means ~$200.
Different upside and volatility.
2️⃣ Time & inertia
$MSTR could lose its "spiral" with BTC, but only mid/late cycle.
By then, BTC at $130K, $MSTR just hits old highs.
BTC climbs, $MSTR stalls.
Markets confirm stories after the move.
Every thesis needs price + time horizon. ⏳
$BTC $MSTRHere's an industry narrative to keep an eye on: SK Hynix announced plans to invest $38.4 billion in building a wafer fab in South Korea, specifically to meet the growing demand for memory chips in the AI era. This multi-billion-dollar capital expenditure is a bet on the strong demand for memory driven by AI over the next several years. What's interesting about this narrative is that traditional giants are putting real money into the AI hardware supercycle, while on the crypto side, the "AI narrative" mostly remains at the stage of storytelling and token issuance. Both are riding the AI wave—one is building factories, the other is building schemes. For $BTC to ride this industrial tailwind, it first needs to prove that real revenue can be generated on-chain. Those who understand, understand. ⚡ ONE AI SIGNAL THE MARKET MAY BE OVERLOOKING
Nvidia is reportedly planning to invest up to $3 billion in Lancium, targeting power infrastructure for AI data centers.
The bigger story isn’t just the investment.
It’s what it says about the next bottleneck for AI.
For years, the question was:
“Do we have enough chips?”
Now the question is increasingly becoming:
“Do we have enough power?”
AI data centers are consuming enormous amounts of electricity, and energy availability is becoming a genuine constraint on how quickly AI infrastructure can scale.
When one of the world’s leading AI computing companies starts putting serious capital directly into power infrastructure, that’s a signal worth paying attention to.
⚡ AI → Chips → Data Centers → Power
And this could eventually create an interesting bridge into crypto.
Think about the emerging DePIN narrative around decentralized energy, computing and infrastructure.
The biggest opportunity may not simply be owning another AI token.
It could be identifying the projects capable of connecting on-chain resources with the real-world energy and computing demand created by AI.
That’s the narrative I’ll be watching closely.
Because the next major AI bottleneck might not be compute.
It might be electricity. ⚡
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
The non-farm payroll data has sounded an alarm for the market but may also be opening the door to the next round of market movement.
U.S. July non-farm employment unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000, indicating a clear cooling in the U.S. labor market. The market quickly adjusted expectations, lowering the probability of a rate hike in September, and funds began to reprice the Federal Reserve's policy shift.
If Wednesday's CPI continues to show cooling inflation, the pressure on the Fed to maintain high interest rates will increase, and expectations for rate cuts may further heat up.
Regarding Bitcoin $BTC, high interest rates have been a major suppressing factor. Once the market confirms entering a rate cut cycle, dollar liquidity improves, institutional risk appetite rises, and Bitcoin could become the first asset to benefit. But in the short term, do not blindly chase the rally; the market often undergoes repeated shakeouts before expectations are realized.
Regarding gold $XAU, weak employment combined with rate cut expectations supports gold. A weaker dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields will also drive continued allocation to gold. However, given gold's significant prior gains, be cautious of short-term corrections after positive news is priced in.
Regarding U.S. stocks $QQQ, if the economy achieves a soft landing, rate cut expectations combined with AI industry profit growth mean tech stocks still have room to strengthen. But if subsequent economic data deteriorates rapidly, market logic may shift from rate cut optimism to recession trading, increasing volatility.
However, before the data is truly confirmed, I believe the most important thing is not to predict direction but to control position size.
Keep some flexible positions for short-term market fluctuations, and hold medium to long-term positions waiting for liquidity turning points to be confirmed.
Next, focus on CPI. If inflation continues to cool, the logic of rate cut expectations → liquidity improvement → risk asset rise may officially start.
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice! #财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？
$SPCX still has several rounds of unlocking ahead, and selling pressure will indeed come wave after wave.
📅 Unlocking timeline
After the first batch of 911.5 million shares unlocks on August 6, the following are expected:
· August 20: about 319 million shares
· September: approximately 700 million shares
· October: close to 700 million shares
The entire unlocking process uses a nine-stage batch mechanism and will continue until 2027. Elon Musk and some specific shareholders have an extended lock-up period that ends next June.
Shorts are not out yet
Currently, more than 250 million SPCX shares are still shorted, and short positions remain. If insiders start mass selling after unlocking, shorts will have more ammunition; if selling pressure is not as big as expected, shorts may continue to be forced out. The battle between both sides is not over.
My view
The market withstood the August 6 unlocking wave; the stock price didn’t collapse but actually rose. However, that doesn’t mean the following rounds will hold up—each batch of unlocking is a new supply shock. The 700 million shares in September and 700 million shares in October combined exceed the first batch of 911.5 million shares. Chips are continuously being released, which is the real test.
SPCX’s current level can be seen as cheap or expensive depending on your calculation cycle. There are still several rounds of unlocking ahead, so I won’t heavily bet at this position. I’ll watch first and wait for the chip structure to stabilize. No rush to jump in, no rush to run.Tonight, the market is sending a very clear signal: don't rush to act. Don't force yourself to trade. Gold is hitting new all-time highs, the stock market is generally strong, and crude oil is holding steady. All traditional markets seem to be declaring: "We have direction, we have confidence." "What about Bitcoin? 🙂 It still lingered in place. Neither up nor down, neither cold nor hot, like a traveler temporarily lost in direction. This kind of market is the most tormenting because it always creates the illusion: "Maybe this is a sign of a breakout...... But half an hour passes, the candlestick doesn't budge at all, nothing happens. 🥇 Let's start with gold, as the price broke through to a new high near $4,357. The spark of safe-haven demand has not been extinguished, and global capital is still searching for safe havens. AI-related stocks are also heating up, and on the surface, risk appetite hasn't completely faded. The stock market has its hype, gold has its height, yet Bitcoin is stuck in the middle, caught in a dilemma. This itself is an expression of attitude: funds are hesitating, waiting for clearer signals to appear. 📊 Bitcoin is currently hovering around 64.8K. The daily technical pattern is actually quite good: MACD maintains an upward structure, and the RSI is around 54, which is within a healthy range. But the problem is, the momentum in the short cycle continues to weaken. The 1-hour RSI is weak, the 15-minute chart is already oversold, and trading volume is frighteningly thin. Simply put: the big level isn't broken, the small level isn't weak. This structure is the most awkward. Long sellers fear pullbacks, short sellers fear breakouts, and sideways movements make people anxious. Against this backdrop, chasing gains appears especially dangerous. Important intervalsA hard data point on the supply side of computing power worth $BTC community's attention: The GPU prices from a leading cloud provider have shown zero fluctuation for 11 consecutive days since the end of July. Multiple instance combinations of A100 and A10 have been sold out across the board for two consecutive weeks, with domestic shortages and relatively loose supply overseas. Computing power is so tight that prices are too lazy to move. The significance for crypto is indirect but real— the more rigid AI capital expenditure is, the more it indicates that industrial funds are concentrating on physical computing power rather than flowing onto the chain. Meanwhile, $BTC is still grinding inside the box, funding rates are only mildly positive, and risk appetite hasn't been lifted by this boom at all. The direction of funds explains who the main player is in this round better than the price itself. Data won't play along with you.In the past, whenever the crypto community saw Saylor's orange BTC holding chart, the first reaction was "Here it comes, Saylor is going to buy $BTC again," and then everyone would start trading early, thinking institutional faith had returned. That chart was once a switch for bullish sentiment, but now, when the same chart is released, the market is clearly not as excited.
Why? Because everyone has started focusing on a more realistic question—not whether he will buy, but how much longer he can keep buying.
Saylor and Strategy have indeed changed the institutional narrative around Bitcoin. Previously, when companies held BTC, people thought they were crazy, but now more and more institutions are reevaluating the value of digital asset allocation. However, company purchases and retail purchases are completely different matters. Retail investors can rely on faith, but companies have to consider financing costs, cash flow, shareholder returns, preferred stock pressure, and the overall market environment.
So now the market is not looking at the phrase "Bitcoin is the future," but at how many bullets you still have and how long you can sustain. If Strategy can really continue to increase holdings, during this hesitant market phase, it will definitely boost bullish sentiment because the market lacks not only money but also a confidence anchor. But if it’s just a chart with no follow-up buying announcement, it only brings emotional fluctuations and changes nothing.
This is also a sign of market maturity. Early on, Saylor posting a chart was good news; now, when he posts a chart, everyone waits for confirmation. Capital is shifting from believing stories to verifying data. This is actually part of Bitcoin’s maturation process—trading used to be about faith, now it’s about sources of funds, balance sheets, and real purchasing power.
Classic signals won’t always be effective. True traders don’t just rush in when they see a familiar pattern; they ask one more question: this time, has the fundamental caught up? The market always rewards those who prepare in advance, not those who only repeat the past. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗? According to the historical trend of the U.S. midterm elections, reviewing the years of the last three U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin has fallen in August every time, with an average decline of over 13%. Looking at the market over the years, the median return in August is -7%, making it the worst and most prone to decline month of the entire year.
Based on this historical pattern and estimating a 13% drop, Bitcoin's price will be around $58,500. $BTC On the eve of the CPI release, AI hardware has already begun to diverge: where will the next round of funds go?
The US CPI on August 12 will be the biggest variable for tech stocks this week. The market expects July CPI year-on-year at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.5%. A lower-than-expected reading means easing interest rate pressure, and high-valuation AI assets are expected to continue recovering; conversely, a rebound in US Treasury yields will suppress growth stocks again.
However, there is no obvious cooling on the industry side.
AAOI's Q2 revenue was about $192 million, up 86% year-on-year, with Q3 guidance further raised to $255–290 million. The 800G/1.6T capacity expansion is still accelerating; LITE's earnings report after market close on August 11 gave a Q4 revenue median estimate of about $985 million, which will be a new validation point for the optical communication sector.
MRVL's latest quarterly revenue was $2.42 billion, up 28% year-on-year, with AI interconnect and custom chips continuing to benefit; SNDK's latest quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion, with data center revenue doubling quarter-on-quarter; AMD's data center revenue also grew 107% year-on-year.
What really needs caution is not volatility, but earnings starting to lag expectations. $MRVL #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Latest environmental information as of August 10.
BTC's current price is stuck around 64900 with shrinking volume, fluctuating less than 400 points up and down throughout the day. Both bulls and bears are watching and staying flat, with no one willing to be the first to dump or pump the market. The resistance at 65350 is a solid concentrated stop-loss level for shorts; if volume breaks through and holds above it, forced liquidations will surge, triggering a short squeeze immediately, with the first target at 66000. On the downside, 64500 is the bottom line of this consolidation phase. A daily close below this level will likely cause short-term long positions to flee en masse, probably testing support at 64200.
The reason for this stalemate is essentially one thing: everyone is waiting for Wednesday night’s CPI data release. Last month’s nonfarm payrolls fell far short of expectations, raising the odds of a rate cut in September, but investors are uncertain and unwilling to bet early, so they remain on the sidelines waiting for the inflation data to provide the final answer.
Regarding the latest situation in the US stock market, last Friday closed the week with the strongest weekly performance in nearly four months. The S&P and Dow both hit all-time highs, while the Nasdaq, driven by AI tech stocks, posted a very impressive weekly gain. Two major news items over the weekend deserve attention: Berkshire Hathaway ended a 14-quarter streak of continuous selling in Q2 by making a large stock purchase, significantly reducing its cash reserves. This is Buffett’s real-money signal that equity assets are now attractively valued. Additionally, Palantir reported better-than-expected earnings and surged after hours. SpaceX’s Starlink upgrade and Nvidia’s continued investment in computing power make the AI industry chain’s profit realization logic increasingly solid.
There is a very unusual divergence here: while US stocks are rallying strongly, BTC remains completely flat with no correlated upward movement.
The root cause is simple: last week, BTC spot ETFs saw significant inflows, hitting the highest weekly level since April, but the buyers are mainly pension funds and family offices holding long-term positions, investing slowly over the year rather than actively pushing prices for short-term gains. On the other hand, Coinbase’s negative premium has persisted for 78 consecutive days, setting a historic record. Domestic US traders habitually sell to cash out on any slight rebound, showing almost zero willingness to go long. Without incremental funds, BTC naturally lacks upward momentum.
In the storage sector, yesterday (August 9), Korean media exclusively reported that SK Hynix plans a shareholder return program totaling approximately $71 billion, including nearly $28.4 billion for stock buybacks and subsequent cancellations to offset dilution from US ADR listings, while heavily investing in expanding its HBM wafer factory. AI data centers continue to expand, and demand for high-end storage will only grow. The storage industry’s bottom reversal is basically confirmed. SanDisk’s recent decline was purely an emotional overreaction; enterprise SSD orders remain sufficient with no fundamental issues. Existing long positions should be held, with stop-loss raised to 1202, first target at 1290, and mid-term target in the 1340-1350 range.
In the coming days, no need to chase scattered news; just focus on three things:
1. Wednesday 20:30 July CPI inflation data: if data weakens, rate cut expectations will materialize, and BTC will likely challenge the 65350 resistance; if inflation rebounds beyond expectations, rate cuts will be delayed, 64500 support will fail, and BTC will weaken accordingly.
2. Monitor daily BTC ETF fund flows and Coinbase premium index; only when the premium turns from negative to positive can we say US domestic short-term funds are entering, and a breakout will have sustainability; otherwise, all rebounds are just volatile traps.
3. Follow the board voting progress on SK Hynix’s massive buyback plan; once officially announced, the storage sector will see a wave of sentiment-driven gains, boosting the entire AI computing power chain.
Geopolitically, the US-Iran Strait negotiations have been fully priced in by the market, and oil price fluctuations are minor and not stirring waves, so no need to keep watching and wasting energy.#财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？
After the first batch of $SPCX restricted shares were unlocked, the anticipated heavy selling pressure did not materialize; instead, the stock experienced consecutive gains.
This is actually a very interesting market signal.
Often, the biggest pressure on a stock does not come from actual sell orders but from the market's fear of "what might happen." Before the unlock, investors worried about early shareholders cashing out; but when the unlock actually occurred and selling pressure fell short of expectations, it tends to create a "bad news priced in" effect.
However, I believe this rally cannot be simply attributed to short covering. Short covering can indeed amplify short-term moves.
Data shows that SpaceX still has a large amount of short positions, accounting for a relatively high proportion of the float. When the stock price keeps rising, some shorts need to cover their positions, which further pushes the price up. But without fundamental support, relying solely on short covering is unlikely to sustain the rally.
What truly supports SpaceX's long-term value is business growth. This includes revenue growth from Starlink satellite internet, expansion of rocket launch operations, and future new directions like AI satellite computing.
This is also the most common scenario for growth stocks: short-term prices are driven by capital speculation, while long-term prices are determined by business value.
Facing a situation where "the market is generally bearish but the stock price is rising," I would neither chase the rally immediately nor simply assume it is a bubble.
I pay more attention to three signals:
First, whether trading volume continues to expand;
Second, whether short positions significantly decrease;
Third, whether the next earnings report can continue to prove growth.
If it is just short covering, the rally may cool off quickly; if capital is repricing SpaceX's future growth potential, then the upward trend may have a longer logic.
The market often makes a mistake: assuming that price increases necessarily mean market mania.
But sometimes, the rise is simply because previous pessimistic expectations were excessive.
For growth stocks, the truly important question is not "whether it has risen," but whether future growth can justify today's valuation. Hello everyone, I am Yibao. Today I bring you the latest key information and market overview.
$BTC BTC current price is $64,950, trading sideways with low volume all day, fluctuating between 64,800 and 65,200 in the past 24 hours. Neither bulls nor bears are willing to take the initiative, so the directional choice is fully postponed. The main resistance above is at $65,350, where a large number of short stop-losses are stacked. Once volume increases and it holds above this level, forced short covering will directly trigger a short-term short squeeze, with the first target at 66,000; the short-term support below is 64,700, the mid-term lifeline is 64,500. If the daily chart breaks down effectively, short-term long positions will face concentrated liquidation, with a pullback target at 64,200.
The root cause of the current market stalemate is very clear: the nonfarm payrolls surprise has fully priced in a September rate cut, but funds are reluctant to bet early on its realization. Everyone is holding their breath waiting for the July CPI data at 8:30 PM Wednesday. Without inflation data backing, no incremental funds are willing to enter and push the market.
Let's talk about the current state of the US stock market. After last Friday's close, the three major indices posted their strongest weekly performance since April. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both hit historic closing highs, and the Nasdaq rose over 5% for the week, led by AI tech stocks. SpaceX surged 15.83% in one day thanks to the doubling performance of Starlink V3. Nvidia invested $3 billion to expand AI computing power and power infrastructure. Palantir's earnings greatly exceeded expectations, and institutional funds continue to flock to growth sectors. Over the weekend, two major fundamentals emerged: Berkshire Hathaway ended 14 consecutive quarters of net selling and made a large net stock purchase in Q2 for the first time, significantly reducing cash reserves. Buffett is putting real money on the table, signaling that equity assets are now sufficiently attractive.
However, there is a glaring divergence: while US stocks keep hitting new highs, BTC remains flat and does not follow the rally. The reasons are twofold: first, last week BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $853 million, the highest since April, with BlackRock alone accounting for 80% of the funds. But ETFs are long-term allocation funds that only do dollar-cost averaging and do not actively sweep the market to push prices up; second, Coinbase has had a negative premium for 78 consecutive days, a record. US domestic traders cash out on every rebound, and active domestic long positions are severely lacking, directly capping BTC's upside.
In the storage sector, SK Hynix announced a massive $71 billion shareholder return plan, combined with a $38.4 billion wafer fab expansion. The AI data center expansion demand is confirmed, marking a solid bottom reversal for the industry. SanDisk's previous decline was an emotional overreaction; enterprise SSD long-term orders are sufficient. Hold long positions, move stop-loss up to 1202, first target 1290, mid-term target 1340-1350.
In the coming week, focus on three core matters that will directly determine the overall trend:
First, the US July CPI data on Wednesday night. The market expects overall CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.5%. If data is below expectations, inflation continues to cool, and the probability of a September rate cut is fully confirmed, BTC will likely challenge the 65,350 resistance; if inflation rebounds above expectations, rate cut expectations will be delayed, and the market will face pressure and fall back, likely losing the 64,500 lifeline.
Second, daily track BTC spot ETF fund flows and Coinbase premium index. Only when the premium turns from negative to positive can it be considered a return of US domestic trading funds. Only a breakout above resistance will have sustainability; all other rebounds should be treated as volatile bull traps.
Third, US-Iran geopolitical expectations have already been priced in. Oil price fluctuations are minor and unlikely to affect inflation expectations further. No need to overly focus on the Strait of Hormuz; all fund attention has shifted to the inflation data itself. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ CLARITY Act officially postponed to September
John Thune, the Senate Majority Leader, confirmed through a spokesperson that the CLARITY Act will not be voted on in August but promised to push it forward immediately after the Senate reconvenes next month. The Senate will recess starting August 10 and is expected to reconvene on September 14.
The biggest obstacle to the bill is the Democrats' insistence on including an "ethics clause" targeting Trump—Trump is projected to profit over $1 billion from crypto ventures by 2025, raising conflict of interest concerns. Several Republican senators have publicly opposed this, and even reaching 50 votes is currently uncertain.
The head of research at Grayscale stated that the chances of the bill passing in 2026 are decreasing. If bipartisan negotiations fail, considering the upcoming November midterm elections, passing it this year is basically impossible. The Senate's schedule is packed with temporary funding resolutions, Russia sanctions bills, and personnel appointments, and the CLARITY Act has not received "time-limited debate agreement" treatment.
Market sentiment: Fear and Greed Index rises to 40, moving out of "fear" into "neutral"
Today's crypto Fear and Greed Index is 40, a clear increase from last week's 25-31, officially moving out of the "fear" zone into "neutral." BTC rose 2.73% this week. The Korean premium is -0.52%, indicating the Korean market is relatively flat.
BTC has been consolidating around 65000 for three days, with volatility continuing to compress. 65000 is the key level this week—if it breaks out with volume, look for 66000-67000; if it fails, expect a pullback to 64000-63500. The window for choosing direction is closing. With the CLARITY Act postponed to September and a lack of short-term macro catalysts, the market may continue to oscillate between 64000-65500.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC #ETH #ETFFunds #CLARITYAct #FuturesTrading #MondayMarket🔥$853 million, institutions are quietly bottom-fishing
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $853 million last week, marking the largest single-week inflow since mid-April. There were net inflows for five consecutive trading days: Monday $170 million, Tuesday $211 million, Wednesday $244 million, Thursday $128 million, and Friday $98 million, with the total for the week exceeding the sum of the previous four weeks.
BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed $693 million, accounting for 81% of the total inflow. Fidelity's FBTC followed with $116 million. BlackRock alone took in 80%, indicating institutions are not diversifying but concentrating their bets.
What’s more intriguing is the timing. The Coldcard wallet vulnerability was exposed on July 30, with at least $1.11 million stolen and losses possibly exceeding $130 million. Normally, a hardware wallet breach would scare off funds, but from the day the vulnerability was revealed, Bitcoin ETFs have seen daily net inflows. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said: “If a cold wallet hack (seemingly the worst-case scenario) actually signals the start of the next bull market, that would be ironic but fits the crypto community’s style.”
Nonfarm payrolls shrank by 23,000, and the probability of a rate hike dropped from 56% to 40%. The worse the employment data, the stronger the expectations for rate cuts, which aligns well with the macro logic for institutions allocating to BTC.
However, there are concerns. ETFs have still seen a cumulative net outflow of about $4.4 billion this year, and weekly trading volume dropped 9% week-over-week to $8.19 billion, the second lowest since October 2024. Funds are flowing in, but trading volume is shrinking, indicating buyers are real institutions and sellers really don’t want to sell.
BTC rose from 62,200 on Monday to 65,400 on Friday. An $853 million inflow pushing the price up 3,000 points suggests selling pressure at this level is lighter than expected.
In the short term, watch CPI. If inflation continues to fall and rate cut expectations increase, this ETF fire can keep burning. If CPI surprises on the upside, the shadow of rate hikes will return.
But one thing to note: institutions buying BTC through ETFs is not new. From April to October 2025, BTC rose from 75,000 to 126,000, during which ETF weekly inflows repeatedly exceeded $1 billion. Now at $853 million, it’s almost there.
👇 Do you think this wave of institutional buying is a bottom-fishing signal or a rebound trap? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$BTC $ETH #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
After the nonfarm payroll data unexpectedly weakened, the market has significantly lowered the probability of a September rate hike. But nonfarm payrolls are just an employment signal; inflation is the real decision constraint for the Federal Reserve. Wednesday's CPI will directly rewrite the market pricing for a September rate hike.
Three scenario simulations:
1. CPI below expectations, inflation continues to cool
The expectation of a September rate hike will be directly dismissed, U.S. Treasury yields will decline, and risk assets will see a sentiment boost. BTC and the U.S. AI stock sector will gain short-term momentum.
2. CPI meets market expectations
The market maintains the status quo, retaining a small probability of a September rate hike. The market will mostly experience narrow fluctuations, with the trend quickly returning to chip distribution and technical analysis.
3. CPI above expectations, inflation stickiness reappears
Even if employment weakens, rate hike pricing will quickly rebound, putting a September rate hike back on the table. U.S. Treasury yields will rebound, directly suppressing the crypto market and causing a round of selling pressure.
Bullish perspective:
Employment data has already weakened, and the economy shows signs of cooling. If inflation falls in sync, the Federal Reserve has no reason to continue tightening. The market can officially speculate on subsequent easing, opening up imagination space for risk assets.
Realities to be wary of:
Do not blindly believe "poor employment means no rate hike." The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, with controlling inflation prioritized over employment. Once energy and service inflation rebound, even if employment worsens, the option to raise rates remains. Additionally, Middle East geopolitical tensions pushing up oil prices will directly disturb the overall CPI reading.
My personal view:
CPI can change market pricing but cannot directly lock in the Federal Reserve's final decision.
After the data is released, there will be sharp spike movements. Many people habitually take heavy positions to speculate on the data in advance, which is very risky.
Do not bet on the data outcome; wait for the data to land and observe the real feedback from U.S. Treasuries and the dollar before responding. This is a safer choice.
Mapping to the crypto market:
BTC is currently at a key chip resistance zone; CPI will be the external catalyst to break the range. Positive news tends to spike then fall back; negative news will amplify selling pressure. Altcoin volatility will be much greater than BTC, so leveraged positions must be reduced in advance.
Key follow-up points: Not only look at the total CPI value but focus on core CPI, housing, and service sub-items, as these are the parts the Fed closely watches.#比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足
Let's talk about the recent BIP-110 event. I've been closely following the entire situation.
Originally, the proposal aimed to limit certain large data writes within a year, compressing block space occupied by non-financial data like inscriptions. Supporters believed it could reduce the on-chain burden, while opponents worried that the change would break Bitcoin's long-standing open and neutral foundational rules, even potentially sowing the seeds for forks and splits.
But the reality came quickly. The fork chain supporting BIP-110 went live for about 8 hours, mining only 2 blocks before stalling completely. Its block height has fallen behind the mainnet by over 80 blocks. Even Wang Chun, co-founder of the mining pool F2Pool, publicly expressed skepticism about this fork attempt. The core reason is the obvious lack of hash power and community consensus.
This event left a deep impression on me.
On the surface, the debate is about whether to limit the development of inscriptions. The fundamental issue is that Bitcoin's rule changes can never bypass the consensus foundation of miners and the broad user base. Relying solely on a small group to forcibly push rule changes, without sufficient hash power and community support, makes it very difficult to truly shake the governance structure of the mainnet.
In the short term, this fork stall also removes a major uncertainty disturbance from BTC's market, and the price action remains range-bound with no clear direction between bulls and bears for now. The US-Iran situation is currently at a delicate stage of "military pause and escalation of the game." The two sides shifted from fierce firefights to intense diplomatic and economic confrontations, with the situation like a "chessboard." Core Situation: From "Hot War" to "Cold War" U.S. Strategic Shift: President Trump said it is "handling things quietly," leaning toward increasing economic pressure and "semi-negotiation" rather than large-scale military action. The underlying reasons are limited effectiveness of military strikes, severe depletion of ammunition stockpiles such as Patriot missiles, and domestic oil price pressures. Iran strengthens controls: parliament approved the Strait of Hormuz security strategy, completing a "reshuffling" of the national security apparatus. The Revolutionary Guard declared it would maintain control of the strait until the U.S. accepted all conditions. Strait of Hormuz: The Main Battleground of the Game Whether the strait can reopen is crucial, with both sides holding clear positions: Iran's conditions for reopening: Five conditions for Iran's reopening: Five conditions including the U.S. permanently halting military operations, lifting all sanctions, returning frozen assets, and compensating for losses. Although a technical navigation agreement was reached with Oman, it is clear that this does not mean reopening the strait. America's Dilemma: Vice President Vance says the game is "in the middle of the game." The U.S. wants to resume shipping but finds it difficult to fully accept Iran's demands; otherwise, it would be tantamount to "surrender." Iran's stance: Internal toughness, dialogue window open. The president made a tough statement: emphasizing no concessions in negotiations, and the U.S. changed its stance within just 24 hours. Readiness and opportunity coexist: The Iraqi military is on full alert, warning it will strike incoming U.S. troops. But the president also acknowledged unprecedented domestic unity, and now is the best time to push for the agreement, provided the U.S. stops applying pressure. Brothers, recently I really have a strong sense of numbness — positive news is so dense that I can't keep up, but the market just doesn't respond.
Open any market software casually, and it's all institutional big shots endorsing, top-tier projects making technical breakthroughs, and all kinds of media collectively bullish. But the ridiculous thing is, despite the sky-high hype, the market either consolidates sideways or slowly drifts down. This signal must be taken very seriously: the market has never lacked hype stories, but it is uniquely lacking real incremental funds entering.
The overwhelmingly bullish information across the internet has fully raised market expectations, but the core catalyst that can turn optimism into real buy orders has yet to materialize. The most dangerous current market condition is thunder without rain — narratives are repeatedly hyped to exhaustion, off-market funds keep watching, and on-market liquidity will only continue to dry up.
Now, when I watch the market, I no longer get caught up in those positive news; I only focus on three core variables that can bring fresh liquidity:
First, whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy can remain dovish. Falling interest rates, weakening US Treasury yields, and a retreating dollar index are the root causes of liquidity easing in the entire crypto market; the macro environment is the foundation of the market.
Second, whether spot ETFs can maintain large and continuous net inflows. Institutions can’t just talk bullish; only sustained real money buying can provide solid support for the market.
Third, whether $BTC can break through the strong resistance above with volume. Without a valid volume breakout from Bitcoin, off-market cautious funds won’t dare to enter, and the overall market will struggle to sustain a trend.
Additionally, Ethereum’s trend is equally crucial. Whether it’s increased ETF fund demand or DeFi and Layer 2 ecosystems producing hit applications, they can support market narratives and attract hot money back. Looking back, every full altcoin bull market has always been led by Ethereum charging ahead.
Whether the altcoin market can start depends entirely on the moods of the two leaders, BTC and ETH. Only when these two mainstreams stabilize the market and establish a trend will funds dare to diversify into AI, RWA, and various altcoin sectors; if Bitcoin continues to be pressured and volatile, hoping for altcoins to rally independently is purely a high-risk speculative gamble.
At this stage, my core operational strategy is very clear: ignore the hype, focus on real capital effects. No matter how noisy the market is, patiently wait for clear signals of liquidity warming — dovish signals from the Fed, sustained large ETF inflows, and Bitcoin breaking key resistance with volume. Multiple signals resonating together is the right time for heavy positioning.
Before that, hold onto your cash chips, don’t waste bullets prematurely on flying positive news, and patiently wait for the market turning point to arrive 周末市场走得比预期强不少，$BTC 在CPI数据落地后直接锁住65000整数关口，截至早盘报价65135美元，24小时涨幅0.55%。这个位置的意义不只是心理关口，更关键的是它把六月那波下跌的套牢盘彻底解开了。资金敢在这个位置承接，说明降息25个基点的预期已经被定价进风险资产，美元弱势震荡给足了反弹空间。 不过盘面分化相当极端，资金没有选择普涨路线，而是集中火力打在少数叙事上。$TUT 单日拉出130%的涨幅，AI+GameFi的BEAT继续沿着五天均线往上走，这种走势明显是短线资金抱团取暖。反过来看前期强势的BICO直接遭遇获利盘砸盘，冷门小市值币种几乎无人问津，这种极致分化下追高和抄底的胜率都不高。 $XRP 还趴在地板上，报价1.04美元，24小时微跌0.13%，和$BTC的强势形成鲜明反差。这种弱势品种如果接下来两天还拉不起来，大概率要继续在低位磨底，资金宁可去追高也不愿意碰它，本身就是一种市场态度的表达。目前$BTC 上方65800到66200是密集成交区，这个压力带能不能放量突破，直接决定这波行情的性质。下方64200到64500如果不破，多头的安全垫就还在。 #存储股抛压🔥 The market is NOT crashing — it’s rotating. Don't rush to chase the dip.
Right now, the biggest mistake is thinking that because some AI names are cooling off, the whole AI bull market is over.
Not really.
The S&P has already rallied nearly 500 points from the FOMC low, closing around 7757, and now it’s basically chilling in the 7700–7800 high-range.
It looks like the level is already high, but the options structure is still biased bullish at the moment.
This week, Gamma is heavily concentrated around 7700–7800, with positive skew extending toward 8000. Capital flow is also interesting — mainly selling Puts + buying Calls.
Simply put:
👉 There are buyers on the downside
👉 There is still capital betting on a breakout above
👉 The market currently shows no obvious panic
And VIX? Still under 15.
A very clear pattern over the past few months:
Every time VIX quickly spikes near 20, it is soon sold off.
So unless volatility actually breaks out, I’d still treat a pullback as high-level consolidation, not automatically the start of a deep correction.
🔄 The real story right now: SECTOR ROTATION
What’s most obvious now isn’t broad-based gains, but money rotation.
AI hardware has surged a lot and is now taking a break.
Meanwhile:
💻 Software is taking over
🤖 Mag 7 remains strong
☁️ New Cloud is heating up
🚀 Space is getting attention
⚛️ Quantum is showing rebound potential
🪙 Gold is strengthening again
This is where the market is really interesting right now.
Not everything needs to pump at the same time.
🧠 What about AI Infrastructure?
Especially MU.
MU has pulled back quite a bit from its highs, but currently looks more like bottoming + consolidation, with no sign that the entire AI Infrastructure thesis is broken.
As long as the key 800–900 range holds, I won’t easily say the AI memory bull market is over.
For a real restart, I’d want to see MU reclaim and hold above the daily EMA 21.
In other words:
Pullback ≠ Bull market over.
🪙 Gold also deserves attention
Gold has already started showing bottoming signs.
GLD has reclaimed key moving averages and returned to the important area near 400.
Put selling is also quite evident in options flow, indicating there is still some support below.
In the short term, I’m more inclined toward 380–400 consolidation → then looking for upward opportunities.
🎯 My approach right now
I’m still leaning toward buying the dip, but NOT blindly chasing green candles.
Options income strategy:
S&P → Sell Puts
IWM → Sell Puts
GLD → Sell Puts
Longer-dated Puts → hedge tail risk
If you want more aggressive exposure, September 18 Calls could be interesting in selected sectors.
#DailyOrbit #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
The storage sector has recently experienced a strong divergence in performance. After earnings reports were released, the sector went through a period of intense volatility. Cautious earnings guidance combined with previously high valuation pressure triggered a collective pullback. Many companies delivered impressive results, yet their stock prices faced valuation cuts.
As the new trading day begins, the rebound in the Korean stock market has driven SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics to rise simultaneously, significantly easing the selling pressure caused by prior leveraged positions. On the institutional side, Bank of America has issued new expectations, suggesting that the two major Korean memory manufacturers are likely to introduce clearer shareholder return plans, with buybacks and dividends becoming new supporting factors for the sector.
However, on the other hand, variables cannot be ignored. The end-user supply chain is actively diversifying memory chip sources. There are reports that Apple is testing chips from ChangXin Memory to address tight memory supply, indicating that supply chain diversification is underway.
The market’s focus of discussion has shifted: no longer fixated on valuation digestion post-earnings, but rather on whether the rebound can continue.
The two core supports for this rally are: the high demand driven by AI memory, and corporate shareholder return policies—can these continue to uphold sector valuations?
At the same time, there are two potential headwinds: the gradual start of the industry’s capacity expansion cycle, and the rise of domestic alternative supply chains—will these gradually change market supply-demand expectations and suppress subsequent rallies?
On one side are demand dividends and buyback expectations; on the other are supply expansion and supply chain shifts. The AI storage bull market has reached a critical observation window. Going forward, it will be necessary to continuously track major manufacturers’ capital expenditures, actual downstream AI server procurement volumes, and the progress of supply chain adjustments by end manufacturers. #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
I've been closely following the storage sector recently, and this wave of movement is really a bit perplexing💭
After the earnings reports came out, storage stocks immediately experienced a sharp shakeout. Despite solid performance data, cautious guidance and high valuations pressured the sector into a pullback, causing many to worry whether the AI memory bull market is over.
However, today I noticed a change: the Korean stocks led a rebound, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both recovering, and the previous leveraged selling pressure significantly easing. Bank of America also shared the view that the two major Korean storage manufacturers are likely to introduce clearer shareholder return plans, which would provide new support logic for their stock prices.
But risks cannot be ignored either. End manufacturers are actively expanding their supply chains, and rumors say Apple is testing chips from ChangXin Memory to address tight memory supply. This means new supply competition will emerge.
Market sentiment has also shifted; it's no longer just about valuation cuts after earnings. Everyone is asking whether the rebound can continue.
On one side, strong memory demand driven by AI, combined with shareholder return expectations, supports valuations; on the other, the industry is entering a capacity expansion cycle, and domestic substitute suppliers are entering the market, gradually changing supply and demand expectations.
Right now, I won't firmly bet on the bull market continuing, nor will I be bearish and exit directly. This position is highly competitive, and going forward, the focus should be on two things: the implementation of Korean companies' shareholder return plans and the pace of new supply ramp-up. How the market moves depends on which of these two forces prevails. Just finished lunch, the market is pretty quiet, BTC is still hovering around 65,200. This morning it peaked at over 65,300 and dipped to 64,800 at the lowest, with a volatility range of about 500 dollars. The weekend momentum hasn't fully passed yet.
It rose about 0.57% in 24 hours, firmly holding above 65,000, but the breakout isn't very decisive. ETH is around 1,910, slightly down 0.31%, a bit weaker than BTC. SOL is doing okay, up 1.44%.
The Fear and Greed Index is 30 today, down 1 point from yesterday's 31. Still in "fear" territory, and this has been going on for many consecutive days; market sentiment hasn't recovered.
A few noteworthy points:
First, Trump's tone on Iran has changed. He said he is "quietly handling" the Iran issue, implying a preference for economic pressure over further military conflict. But Iran remains tough—the parliament approved the Hormuz Strait security framework, and the Revolutionary Guard said they will "maintain control until the enemy accepts all conditions." One side is playing the good cop, the other the bad cop. Brent crude oil rose to around $84.5. The geopolitical issue isn't over and could flare up anytime.
Second, ETFs saw a net inflow of $853 million yesterday, led by BlackRock's IBIT. This marks several consecutive days of large inflows, with institutions continuously buying around 65,000, indicating their acceptance of this price level. However, retail investors remain cautious; over 95,000 liquidations occurred in the past 24 hours, with many caught chasing highs.
Third, the biggest event this week—Wednesday night's CPI. The market expects July's overall CPI year-over-year to drop from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI from 2.6% to 2.5%. Nonfarm payrolls have pushed the probability of a September rate hike to 44.4%. If CPI continues to cool, rate hike expectations may further decline, giving BTC a chance to surge to 67,000-68,000. If CPI rebounds beyond expectations, the rate hike probability will spike again, and BTC will likely retest 63,000 or even lower.
In terms of trading, the area around 65,000 is indecisive—chasing highs risks getting trapped, shorting risks missing out. I’m not heavily positioned and will wait for Wednesday’s CPI release before making moves. Without a clear direction, trading is just gambling, which is unnecessary.
This is my personal view and does not constitute any investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟 #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Core premise: Endgame logic for the sector. Ethereum Layer 2 currently has over 70 chains, and in the future, the vast majority of small and medium-sized L2s will become zombie chains or shut down. Capital, developers, and liquidity are highly concentrated at the top; There are three rigid standards for survival thresholds: 1. Stabilize large amounts of treasury funds and withstand long-term cash consumption and maintenance; 2. Unique moat (ecosystem cluster, technology stack, institutional resources); 3. Real active users and locked holdings, not just relying on airdrops to boost data. The track is divided into two main routes: Optimistic-Rollup optimistic and ZK-Rollup zero-knowledge approaches. These two routes will not completely eliminate each other and will coexist long-term. 1. Optimistic Track (OP-Rollup) Has Token Targets 1. ARB (Arbitrum) has the highest survival weight. Advantages: Deepest DeFi roots, native deployment of GMX, Aave, Uniswap; The Orbit three-layer chain framework can incubate child chains; The national treasury is enormous; Stylus high-performance contract capabilities. Shortcoming: So far, no fee dividends have been paid to holders; Large-scale unlocking selling pressure persists long-term; Base is competing for new users. 2. OP (Optimism) The core moat is the OP-Stack open-source framework, which builds a superchain cluster, with many new chains directly reusing this code. Expand your territory by outputting a complete set of development templates; The RetroPGF funding mechanism retains developers. Weaknesses: Permanent token issuance dilution; The native chain ecosystem is smaller than ARB.GRVT 24h +18.34% firmly holds the OKX throne, BICO crashes -43.97% in one day, and another -8.12% this hour — one crowned king, one buried alive.
This is not rotation, it's polarization: money clusters with a few winners, squeezing out the definite losers.
BTC $64,994.67, 24h +0.302% moving sideways. Volume recovered +3.5% after an 86% collapse, but the rebound is BICO's escape volume, not new money.
OI 106,800, funding +0.0073% flat, FG30 fear unchanged.
Breadth 6:8 net red (yesterday 7:7), losers pushed back down; US stock green zones also leaking, XSPCX -2.35%, XSOXL -0.64%.
One measure: Dragon head acceleration + dragon tail acceleration crash = capital polarization clustering. Bottom-fishing losers is giving away money; wait for the king to retrace, don’t chase highs.
My BICO short opened at 18:38 is floating +17.87% profit, all thanks to this measure to avoid risk — the structure was right, not divine precision.
How many days can GRVT king hold? Bet: A) turns into the next BICO crash within a week / B) holds +18% as the main trend.
Comment your choice, and if you bet on B, say what you trust about it.
#OKXPlanet $BTC $GRVT #AltcoinPolarization #CapitalClustering
Crypto assets are high risk; this article is not investment advice, purely personal opinion. #比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足
Latest on-chain data shows that the BIP-110 soft fork proposal, aimed at restricting inscriptions and BRC20 tokens, has miner support across the network of only 2.53%, far below the 55% activation threshold. All major mining pools have explicitly refused to participate. After the fork chain split, only 2 blocks were mined before it completely stalled. Currently, it lags behind the Bitcoin mainnet by over 110 blocks, with a hash rate share of less than 0.2% of the entire network, having long lost the ability to sustain itself independently. This event has only caused a short-term minor disturbance to Ordinals-related small tokens, with no fundamental impact on the BTC market. The decentralization consensus barrier of Bitcoin is once again highlighted. I maintain my usual cautious approach, avoiding this niche forked derivative coin, and will wait for the overall market conditions to steadily improve. I still firmly believe the bull market will gradually return in the long term.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
This is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. SpaceX surges sharply, is it a reversal or short covering?
SpaceX rebounded from $104.83 to $136.10, rising nearly 25% in two days. The rise was not driven by new positive news but by the market's concern that the unlocking selling pressure did not materialize. #OKX
Q2 revenue was about $7.8 billion, up more than 90% year-over-year, and net loss narrowed to $541 million. After about 912 million shares became tradable, the stock price instead surged with volume, forcing shorts to cover.
But the trend reversal cannot be confirmed yet.
The stock price has retraced over 53% from the high of $225.64. Currently, it only shows support around $104 to $110. The real dividing line is $135, which is both the IPO issue price and the cost basis for the first batch of investors.
Key points to watch this week:
- Hold above $135 and break through $142, then target $148 to $152
- Pull back to $132 to $135 without breaking, maintaining strong consolidation
- Break below $130, this rally looks more like short covering, with downside to $122 to $126
My judgment is that SpaceX may first test $138 to $142, then pull back to confirm $135. Only with volume and a steady hold above $142 can this rally upgrade from an oversold rebound to a phase reversal.
There is another unlocking window in late August. Compared to daily gains, I am more concerned whether the stock price can continue to hold $135 when the next batch of shares is released. FIL continues to weaken, making a strong rally difficult: six core reasons
1. Persistent selling pressure and supply-demand imbalance (the fundamental reason)
FIL continuously produces mining rewards daily; early SAFT investors and the foundation's holdings unlock linearly over the long term.
A large number of storage providers (miners) produce FIL daily and need to pay electricity and hardware costs, creating continuous selling pressure.
Whenever the price slightly rebounds, miners tend to cash out collectively, making sustained rallies difficult—a typical "rebound triggers selling" scenario.
2. Narrative severely disconnected from actual implementation
The promotion is about AI decentralized storage, but the actual paid storage proportion is extremely low.
Most of the network's storage is test data or subsidized data; genuine enterprise paid orders are rare;
On-chain revenue mostly comes from penalties, not storage service fees. Simply put: the network looks large in capacity but is unprofitable.
Without real business demand support, capital won't position long-term.
3. Token economic model has a built-in vicious cycle
Price drops → miners’ staked assets shrink → some computing power exits and shuts down → market confidence worsens → continued pressure.
Unlike $BTC and $ETH, which have continuous burning and essential consumption, $FIL lacks sufficient token consumption scenarios.
4. Weak market consensus within the community, institutional funds avoid it
In early years, domestic mining machine capital heavily entered FIL, creating a very thick historical trapped position;
The market formed a fixed impression: FIL = mining token. Large funds prefer $ADA, $CFX, $LINK, and platform tokens, rarely actively allocating FIL.
Given the same capital, they prioritize stronger trending assets with smaller trapped positions.
5. Intense competition in the sector, no irreplaceability
The decentralized storage sector also has competitors like AR, SIA, etc.;
Compared to centralized cloud storage, FIL has slower retrieval speeds and higher costs, making large-scale enterprise adoption difficult.
The AI storage hype rarely translates sustainably to FIL, mostly just short-lived pulses.
6. Weak technical structure in the market
The long-term focus keeps shifting downward, with resistance levels dropping layer by layer;
Other mainstream tokens have support during pullbacks, but FIL often consolidates with small gains while the broader market dips, falling first during corrections.
When capital chooses direction, it actively avoids weak assets.
Many wonder: when will there be a turnaround?
The market generally watches two key time points:
Mid-October unlock period ends + mining reward halving
Early investors’ six-year unlock expires, daily new circulating tokens drop sharply, theoretically reducing selling pressure.
⚠️ Key point: reduced supply does not necessarily mean price will rise. Without real growth in paid storage business, relying solely on halving narratives will likely only cause short-term pulse rebounds, making a sustained bull trend unlikely.
Substantial changes must occur: large-scale growth in real paid storage orders and continuous token demand from the ecosystem.
Practical objective conclusion (current market)
Without major positive catalysts, FIL is unlikely to enter a sustained main upward wave.
Current capital concentration mainlines: OKB, BNB, ADA, CFX, LINK; funds prioritize strong assets, while weak tokens tend to be continuously neglected.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ BTC holding near $65,000 while ETF inflows return suggests the market is rebuilding demand, but the muted 24-hour moves across BTC, ETH and SOL show conviction remains limited. I see this as stabilization, not a confirmed risk-on turn.
CPI may reset Fed expectations, while a pending Hormuz deal keeps macro risk unresolved. Until those signals clear, BTC looks better supported than the broader crypto market, with selective exposure likely to outperform indiscriminate buying.
Just my read, not advice.
#OKXOrbit#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ The real focus this week is not just the CPI itself, but how the market will reprice the possibility of a September Fed rate hike after the data is released.
The market has just gone through a clear "hawkish expectation cooling" phase. Previously weak employment data reduced the urgency for further rate hikes recently and was one of the key reasons for the renewed risk appetite in US stocks. Now, capital is waiting for new inflation evidence.
The market's expectation for this US CPI is roughly: year-over-year 3.4%, core CPI year-over-year 2.5%.
So I believe the key this time is not simply to judge whether the CPI rises or falls, but to see if it significantly deviates from expectations:
If CPI is below expectations, the previous combination of cooling employment and easing inflation will further weaken the logic for a September rate hike. US Treasury yields and the dollar may come under pressure, which could be favorable for risk assets like US stocks, BTC, and ETH.
If it basically meets expectations, the market may not get enough new information, and the trading logic will return to employment, economic growth, and subsequent Fed statements. The market may first experience sharp volatility before returning to the original trend.
The real danger is if it is significantly higher than expected. Because some risk assets have already priced in a "less hawkish Fed," once inflation proves to be sticky again, the market will have to revise not only the probability of a September rate hike but the entire interest rate path — which could cause a more obvious valuation compression in risk assets.
So I won’t just look at a single number for this CPI.
I’m more focused on how US Treasury yields and September rate pricing move after the data release. The data is just the surface; capital repricing is the real trading signal.
What do you think? After this CPI release, will the market continue to trade the "rate hike retreat," or put the September rate hike back on the table? $BTC Guys, on Wednesday night, the most important CPI of the year is about to be released. The reason is simple: the nonfarm payrolls have flipped the table, and CPI decides how to bet on the next round. What was the nonfarm payroll look like in July? Direct negative figure—a decrease of 23,000 jobs, market expectation was an increase of 80,000, but the difference between positive and negative is 100,000. The data for May and June was revised down by 103,000 people; the "strong" employment growth at the beginning of the year was all a statistical illusion. Government departments cut 53,000 jobs, and the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021. The CME probability of the Fed's September rate hike peaked at 67.2% before the nonfarm payroll and plunged to a low of 40% after the nonfarm bill. What is the CPI forecast for Wednesday? The market generally expects overall CPI to rise 0.1% month-on-month in July (June is the first 0.4% month-on-month decline in six years); Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, the lowest level since February this year. Bloomberg economists are more optimistic, expecting overall CPI year-on-year to be only 2.4%. Energy price pressures are cooling — gasoline prices fell to a nearly four-month low in early July. Although they rebounded above $4 by month-end, overall they are much milder than previous months. Three scenarios, three scenarios. Scenario one: CPI below expectations (year-on-year ≤ 3.3% or core ≤ 2.4%). Jobs collapsed, inflation dropped—the probability of a rate hike in September could fall below 30%. Bitcoin is very likely to break through 65,300-65,500, and move toward 66,000-67,000 or even higher. This is the "double reduction"Apple & Changxin: Price Cut Failed, But Cooperation Can Succeed
Last week, Apple hoped to leverage its purchasing scale to secure DRAM discounts, but Changxin did not accept, and the quoted prices may even be close to those of Samsung and SK Hynix.
The reason Apple values Changxin is simple:
· AI servers consume a large amount of high-end memory capacity, while traditional DRAM supply tightens simultaneously
· Changxin itself has sufficient orders, with production capacity reportedly booked well into the future, and is not short of customers
Currently, Apple's DRAM mainly relies on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
Adding Changxin can reduce the risk of shortages and also increase bargaining chips in future negotiations.
For Changxin, passing Apple's strict performance, reliability, and consistency verification, even with limited initial orders, is an important endorsement for entering the global high-end consumer electronics supply chain.
Of course, testing does not equal mass production orders.
Cooperation still needs to overcome three hurdles: product certification, stable supply, and geopolitical policies. Initially, it is more likely to be used for certain models sold in the Chinese market rather than immediately replacing existing suppliers comprehensively.
Apple can no longer treat Changxin merely as a price-cutting tool, and Changxin is beginning to have the confidence to say "no" to top global clients.
The price negotiation failed, but the supply chain demand still exists. Price cut failed, but cooperation can succeed.
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 🤔 $BICO this market trend looks familiar, doesn't it? The steep surge on the candlestick chart closely resembles the previous scenarios of $COAI, $LAB, $BSB, and $RAVE. Veteran players seeing this form instinctively recall the fear of being dominated by demon coins in those years—and the painful memories of getting stuck chasing highs and getting exposed by short-selling. This is the classic script of a stock game market: a new face emerges, carrying the narrative aura, funds rush in, then the performance ends, leaving behind a mess. The only difference is that no one can accurately predict the exact timing of when a feather will land. 🚨 Let's first look at a set of harsh historical data—don't rush to say 'a tenfold increase will definitely peak.' $LAB that round of the market approached 200 times, $RAVE surged to about 150 times, and $COAI saw an extreme increase of 120 times. In a sentiment-driven liquidity market, exchange candlesticks can be drawn into a straight line by funds; questions like "reasonable valuation" and "where to top" are inherently false propositions. The anchor of price is sentiment; as long as sentiment doesn't cool down, the upward trend will not stop. Tenfold in certain liquidity phases of a bull market is just a halfway point, or even a starting point. Those naive traders thought that after a tenfold increase, they should go short, only to find the market still had five times to go and was ultimately crushed by the trend. ⚡ But conversely, the risks of going long and chasing highs are equally alarming. Behind every big bullish candlestick in the market lie countless accounts that have been cleaned out. Especially for small-cap/mid-cap stocks like $BICO, which have been hotly speculated recently, their volatility far exceeds normal. Experienced traders will understand#霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？
The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are heating up again, with the Strait of Hormuz navigation agreement still unresolved, bringing the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices back into market focus.
Negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding navigation arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz have yet to reach a final agreement. After the news broke, on August 10, oil prices surged quickly, with Brent crude approaching $84 per barrel intraday, and WTI crude rising to $78.5 per barrel. Meanwhile, Houthi forces launched attacks on Saudi refineries near the Red Sea, further intensifying market concerns over the energy supply chain.
From the signals released by the United States, there is currently no rush to initiate a new round of military strikes; the strategy prioritizes continued economic pressure, with the primary goal of ensuring the key passage of the Strait of Hormuz remains open for navigation.
For the market, the core observation point going forward is no longer whether negotiations will continue, but whether the navigation arrangements can truly be implemented.
If the agreement continues to be delayed and uncertainty over navigation through the strait remains high, oil prices will continue to factor in the risk premium from geopolitical conflicts and shipping disruptions, providing further upward momentum for crude prices.
The chain reaction caused by rising oil prices cannot be ignored: higher oil prices will push up overall inflation expectations, indirectly altering the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy environment, and risk assets including the crypto market will be indirectly affected by this logic.
The biggest problem with geopolitical events is their unpredictability, with sudden news capable of disturbing the market at any time. It is not wise to simply bet on easing tensions; continuous monitoring of negotiation progress and sudden developments in the Red Sea and Strait regions is necessary, as the speed at which geopolitical risks ferment often exceeds expectations.ETF inflows of $860 million, so why can't BTC still rise?
In the past 5 trading days, BTC spot ETFs have had a net inflow of about 13,532 BTC, equivalent to approximately $860 million, yet the price still hasn't stabilized above $65,000.
The money hasn't disappeared; it has been absorbed by sell orders.
The $65,000 to $66,000 range is a previous high-volume trading zone, where trapped positions and short-term funds are cashing out. ETF buying still needs to absorb miners', long-term holders', and institutions' portfolio adjustments.
This data indicates two things:
Without ETF absorption, BTC might have already fallen back to $62,000 to $63,000; but despite such large inflows, failing to break through $65,000 also shows heavy selling pressure above.
For the short term, focus on two levels:
Hold above $65,800, then watch $66,600 to $67,500
Break below $64,000, then watch $63,200; if lost, then $62,500
It's not that no one is buying now; rather, buying is temporarily being absorbed by selling. A true bullish signal would be ETF inflows starting to push prices upward.CPI Powder Keg vs AI Demon Mirror: Will the Crypto Market Face a “Davis Double Kill” or a “Double Tap” This Week?
This week, global risk assets will encounter a rare "double nuclear explosion" event—Wednesday’s showdown with the US July CPI, while the concentrated earnings reports from leading optical module companies serve as the makeup remover to test the true color of the AI rally. One controls "money," the other controls "dreams," and the crypto market just happens to stand at the crossroads of these two.
🔥 Wednesday CPI: The Macro Main Switch
At 20:30 on August 12 (Wednesday), the US July CPI data will be released. The market generally expects core CPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month and about 3.2% year-over-year. If the data is significantly below expectations, rate cut expectations will immediately reignite, causing a double hit to the dollar and US Treasury yields. The story of easing liquidity will push risk assets like BTC, ETH, and others upward.
Conversely, if inflation remains stubborn—even just 0.1% higher—it could instantly extinguish bullish enthusiasm. Higher interest rates for longer mean growth assets and the crypto market will be the first to face a "valuation kill."
💡 Optical Module Earnings: The Touchstone of AI Dreams
This week, the A-share optical module (CPO) sector enters the peak of earnings season. Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, New Easysun, and Tianfu Communications—"AI shovel sellers"—will successively deliver their results and provide guidance for the next quarter.
Their previous surge was entirely driven by expectations of massive capital expenditure in the AI arms race. If these earnings reports confirm multiple-fold profit growth and raise performance guidance, it will announce to the market that AI hardware demand is not receding but accelerating—this is a strong tonic for the Nvidia supply chain and AI meme coins (FET, RNDR, WLD, etc.), and risk appetite will spill over into the entire crypto market.
However, if these optical module stocks show declining gross margins and conservative guidance, AI bubble expectations will instantly ferment, and when the Nasdaq squats deeply, the crypto circle will hardly remain unscathed.
🧩 Scenario Matrix: How the Crypto Market Should Respond
· Davis Double Tap (CPI↓ + Optical Modules↑): The most optimistic scenario. Macro dovishness plus AI hard logic confirmation, liquidity expectations and industry confidence resonate. In this case, BTC is very likely to aggressively attack previous highs, altcoins will see an emotional recovery wave, and AI sector tokens may explode in the short term.
· Davis Double Kill (CPI↑ + Optical Modules↓): The most dangerous script. Stubborn inflation dashes rate cut hopes, while AI faith faces performance falsification, causing tech stocks and crypto to suffer a "profit + valuation" double kill. BTC may retest key support, and leveraged longs need to be especially cautious.
· One Good, One Bad (Cross Combination): The market will likely experience wide volatility and intensified stock competition. It is advisable to observe more and wait for certainty signals.
⏰ Timeline to Watch
· Wednesday 20:30 US July CPI
· Wednesday to Friday Optical module leaders’ earnings reports (focus on whether Zhongji Xuchuang and New Easysun exceed expectations and raise full-year guidance)
These two forces essentially represent the collision of "water" and "light"—water is liquidity, light is the AI narrative. For crypto players, this week is not a week to watch a show but a practical week for position and risk control. Do you think there will be a double tap or a double kill? Will BTC use this opportunity to break through 70,000 or defend 60,000? Share your scenario in the comments.
#BTC #CPI #AI #OpticalModules #TradingStrategy #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ The current Federal Reserve policy is caught in a dilemma. At the July FOMC meeting, 3 members advocated for a rate hike, combined with June's core PCE reaching 3.7%, inflation continues to deviate from the 2% target. However, the unexpected negative nonfarm payrolls dragged down employment data, and the market's probability of a September rate hike has fallen below 50%. Wednesday's July CPI will directly rewrite rate pricing.
The market consensus expects overall CPI year-on-year at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.5%. There are three data scenarios: if both CPI and core CPI exceed expectations, it will confirm inflation stickiness, rapidly heating up September rate hike expectations, strengthening US Treasury yields and the dollar simultaneously, while US stocks and cryptocurrencies come under pressure; if the data meets expectations, the current volatile pricing will continue, with ongoing long-short battles; if inflation cools significantly, it will directly eliminate the possibility of a September rate hike, lifting easing expectations and benefiting a broad rebound in risk assets.
The Federal Reserve prioritizes inflation in its policy weighting, with employment only playing a constraining role. Even if employment weakens, as long as inflation continues to rebound, hawkish officials will still insist on rate hikes; only continuous inflation weakening can offset the policy contradictions caused by cooling employment.
In the short term, the market has already preemptively priced in the data, with strong cautious sentiment before the CPI release and reduced volatility. In the medium to long term, this CPI is only a phase pricing adjustment. Whether there will be a rate hike within the year still depends on subsequent PCE and the August nonfarm payroll combined data. A single data point is unlikely to completely reverse the Federal Reserve's overall policy direction.
$BTC $ETH $OKB This agreement is more indecisive than me chasing girls, sometimes "close to completion," sometimes "not officially signed yet," and oil prices are being pulled back and forth like a roller coaster.
You read that right, the leadership changed mid-negotiation. I originally thought what Bassent hinted a few days ago about "signing the agreement in the next day or two" was true, but today there was a big move — Iran replaced its top security official at the most critical point in the talks.
The newcomer is called Rezaei, former commander of the Revolutionary Guard, a hardcore hawk for 16 years, who has been making tough statements every day since the fighting started in February. With a figure like him directly taking the secretary position of the Supreme National Security Council, do you think he's here to concede?
Even more extreme is that the replaced Zolghadr was also a hardliner. Replacing a hardliner with another hardliner shows the Supreme Leader thinks the previous team wasn’t tough enough and wants to raise the stakes.
Look at recent events: the parliament unanimously passed the Strait bill, US and Israeli ships are outright blocked; the Revolutionary Guard says they want to control until the other side accepts all conditions; they even demanded war reparations from the US; and now they’ve put an even tougher figure in charge.
Is this "close to completion"? I see it as close to collapse.
A quick glance at the market:
$BZ Brent crude jumped directly to 83.5 this morning, WTI stood above 78, both up more than two points.
$XAU Gold is the most honest, London gold holding steady above 4300, domestic Shanghai gold up 1.5% at 942. When trouble really hits, funds run to gold first — an old tradition.
$BTC is more awkward, stuck around 65000, up only 0.2% in 24 hours, almost unchanged. Where are those who touted it as "digital gold" and a "safe haven asset"? When geopolitical trouble hits, it’s still stuck there. To be clear, it’s still behaving like a risk asset, not a safe haven.
$ETH is even less impressive, hovering around 1900 following the big brother, no own opinion, the weekly gain of two points is just a tip from BTC.
So the market signals are clear: oil up (supply concerns), gold up (safe haven), crypto flat (funds not convinced). The market talks about hope for talks, but the body honestly moves into gold.
Don’t be fooled by the words "close to completion." Iran’s demands: lifting sanctions, troop withdrawal, asset unfreezing, compensation — which can the US agree to? Even Trump said it’s a "half-negotiation state," meaning just talking casually, don’t take it seriously.
My view: don’t short oil, this situation could trigger a big bullish candle anytime; hold long gold comfortably; avoid heavy positions in BTC and ETH for now, they’re stuck and painful to hold.
Keep watching the market, today is another day the market teaches us a lesson 🙂
#霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？ #财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？ On August 6, SpaceX faced a large-scale lock-up expiration, with the market previously widely concerned that massive selling pressure would suppress the stock price. However, the market trend exceeded most expectations; after the lock-up expiration, the stock did not continue to weaken but instead entered a continuous rebound channel, with the capital game pattern showing a clear shift.
From the current market position data, the short-selling force remains significant: over 250 million shares of SpaceX are still in a short position, accounting for 16% of the tradable shares. Meanwhile, options market volume has significantly increased, intensifying the long-short battle, and short-term volatility may continue to escalate.
Reviewing the catalysts before this round of market movement, SpaceX’s first earnings report after listing showed mixed characteristics. Revenue grew significantly year-over-year, losses continued to narrow, and core operating data exceeded market expectations; however, capital expenditures related to AI business also rose simultaneously, with ongoing cash burn sparking intense market debate over the stock’s long-term valuation.
As the negative impact from the lock-up expiration is gradually absorbed by short-term funds, the market’s trading focus has shifted. Currently, capital attention is no longer on lock-up selling pressure but on two core variables: whether large-scale shorts will start concentrated covering, and whether options capital battles can continue to drive short-term market moves.
The market now forms two distinctly different trading logics: one view holds that this rally is a market re-pricing of SpaceX’s value after clearing the lock-up negative, with fundamental improvements providing sustained support; the other remains cautious, judging this rebound more as a short-covering and trade-structure-driven short-term move, with sustainability yet to be verified.
Mapping to related tokens in the crypto market, XSPCX, XCRCL, and XSND have simultaneously followed the stock’s sentiment fluctuations. Fundamental expectations, US stock volatility, and capital trading behavior intertwine, requiring ongoing tracking of short positions and options capital flows to judge whether the market can further extend.#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
Last night after reviewing the non-farm payroll data, my first impression was that the market has once again reached a crossroads.
In July, non-farm employment actually decreased by 23,000, which is a big difference from the expected 80,000. Coupled with downward revisions to the data from the previous two months, it’s clear that the cooling in employment is happening faster than most anticipated. Interestingly, the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%, indicating that the economy is not broadly weakening, but fewer people are willing to enter the workforce. There are actually some divergences hidden in this.
The market reaction was also very direct, with expectations for a September rate hike instantly being knocked down. However, this matter is far from settled; the Federal Reserve’s biggest concern remains the stickiness of inflation.
The next major event is next week’s CPI data.
If inflation data rebounds, the expectation for rate hikes will most likely be pulled back again. Looking at the crypto market now, the main storyline is very clear: the non-farm payrolls were just a setup, and the data that will truly determine the short-term direction is the CPI report.
I’m not ready to draw conclusions yet either; I’ll wait and see how the data lands and then observe how the market moves. What do you all think—will the CPI be stronger or decline? $BTC Although I don't understand technical analysis,
I do remember that in the last cycle, during the rise from the bottom,
it basically could increase by 2% to 5% daily, sometimes even 10% in a single day.
There were also periods of sideways movement or pullbacks in between,
but then another wave of increase would start.
After several cycles, I realized
it had already doubled from the bottom.
It feels like the sentiment has shifted from a month ago when 60,000 was not considered the bottom,
to now,
60,000 is the bottom, and it's time to start dollar-cost averaging.
BTC seems to be rising every day, but looking closely, it's still at 60,000😅
With the current calm and quiet, it really doesn't feel like anything major will happen
that would drag BTC down to new lows.
But it's not only negative news that can cause prices to fall.
Any event can have both positive and negative sides,
all depending on how the price reacts.Dear fellow believers, sharing recent market analysis and personal views for your reference and correction. BTC is currently in a deep bear phase. From the bull market peak of $126,000, it has retraced and is now in the fourth wave of decline. After the fourth wave, the price drop will gradually lessen. After breaking below the low of 57,800 on July 1, a break-reversal formed a short-term bottom. Everyone is eagerly waiting for when the bull market will arrive and appear. Looking at the cycle: first, the Bollinger Bands have not yet contracted (narrowed); second, the weekly chart has not broken above the middle Bollinger Band; third, the daily EMA200 has not broken above it. You can review the historical cycles of gold and BTC as references. To confirm the start of a bull market, at least two of these three signals must be met. Therefore, regardless of how the market moves in the next two to three months, any decline is a good opportunity to buy spot. Many say to wait for 53,000 or 48,000, but the chance of missing out is high. Those who act early during this period have already arbitraged multiple times. As for the final bottom, I have two backup buying plans: first, buy between 59,000 and 61,000 because 57,800 might be the head of a head-and-shoulders bottom, forming the third head of a triple top; second, if the bottom consolidation lasts longer, it might retest and break below 57,800 low, then using 57,800 as the shoulder, expect a price between 55,000 and 53,000. Congratulations if you buy low-priced chips at this time; the risk value has significantly decreased. I personally prefer the second plan but will prioritize executing the first. These two plans seem contradictory—missing out and trial-and-error. The essence of trading is trial and error first. According to the cycle, since the first break below 60,000 until today, the RSI indicators at 20, 24, and 28 have gradually risen. Other assets like ETH and SOL can follow this sequence synchronously. The following are my personal thoughts and cannot be fully detailed. Investment and trading risks are borne individually. Wishing you a worry-free life.Current Market Pricing Status As of around August 9-10: The CME FedWatch tool shows about a 55-60% probability of holding steady at the September meeting, with about a 40-45% chance of a 25bp rate hike. Predictive markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) are more dovish: about 63-66% chance of holding steady, about 33-36% chance of a rate hike. This outcome is the result of rate hike expectations that had heated up after the July 29 FOMC but sharply declined following the weak employment report on August 7. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 (expected around +80,000), with revisions downward by over 100,000 for the previous two months combined; the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but labor force participation declined and private sector hiring was weak, indicating a cooling labor market. The current federal funds target range remains 3.50%-3.75%. The July meeting maintained rates with a 9-3 vote (3 members favored a hike). New Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized "zero tolerance for inflation persistently above target" and explicitly refused to provide forward guidance, stressing data dependence. July CPI Market Consensus and Background The consensus is roughly as follows (Bloomberg/Reuters surveys, Cleveland Fed nowcast, etc.): Overall CPI: month-over-month +0.1%, year-over-year about 3.4% (June was month-over-month -0.4%, year-over-year 3.5%). Core CPI (excluding food and energy): month-over-month +0.2%, year-over-year about 2.5% (June year-over-year about 2.6%). June$BTC
According to the historical pattern of the U.S. midterm elections,
BTC's optimal positioning window falls in October,
with a high probability of starting an upward trend from early October.
Before the November 3 election results, the market's average maximum drawdown is about 16%.
Looking at the extended period statistics since 1950,
the Nasdaq has closed higher 12 months after every election day with a 100% success rate,
with no exceptions.
If you buy the S&P 500 on election day,
the following year is almost guaranteed to be profitable,
with an average return of 18.6%.
This multi-decade cyclical pattern still holds strong reference value today.Green candles do not mean the entire market is improving 🚨
This rally looks strong, but beneath the surface, liquidity choices are becoming increasingly cautious.
Funds are not flowing into all altcoins but rotating among a small group of winners, with most projects quietly losing relative strength.
The data actually makes it very clear:
📉 Open interest is cooling down
📊 Trading volume remains steady
This indicates the market is in a disciplined holding state rather than a full-blown euphoric mood.
Traders no longer chase every pulse but concentrate funds on the highest-confidence patterns. Smart money is carefully selecting rather than blindly casting a wide net.
🟢 Assets attracting new liquidity
$JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP • $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
🔵 Core coins leading the market
$BTC — the largest liquidity magnet
$ETH — favored by institutional funds
$SOL — high Beta Layer 1 leader
$DATA — AI infrastructure narrative
$WLD — AI and digital identity sector
$HYPE — risk appetite thermometer
$ZEC and $DOGE — retail sentiment barometers
🔴 Projects still struggling to attract funds
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
The biggest advantage of this market phase is not predicting when the next big green candle will come but seeing exactly where the funds are flowing.
When capital becomes selective, relative strength matters more than hype stories. The strongest trends will attract more liquidity, while weaker projects may continue to underperform even as the overall market rises.
At this stage of the cycle, there is no need to chase every green candle; quietly follow the direction of the funds.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #Trading #Liquidity #MarketStructure #DeFi #Web3Breaking news! Positive or not?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the Nonfarm Payrolls will be released, and the US stock market is about to face a critical choice.
At 20:30 this Friday night, the July Nonfarm Employment Report will be released. This is the most important employment data after the Federal Reserve's July rate meeting and will directly rewrite the September interest rate expectations. All assets including US stocks, US bonds, and crypto will be affected.
Previously, the ADP small nonfarm data was significantly below expectations, which has already served as a warning to the market. The market is betting on a gradual cooling of employment.
Three data scenarios and their corresponding US stock market trends:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected, wages rise simultaneously
Employment is hot, delaying rate cut expectations, US bond yields rise. High-valuation AI tech and storage sectors bear the heaviest pressure; growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow Jones value blue chips are relatively resilient, leading to a differentiated market.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker, unemployment rate rises
The market will strengthen rate cut expectations, US bond yields fall, benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware may see a recovery rebound. But beware of a risk: data too poor may trigger market concerns about economic recession, causing a short-term broad sell-off.
Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations
Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold. US stocks continue the current split pattern, Dow Jones is relatively strong, Nasdaq fluctuates at high levels, and the market returns to earnings report logic with continued sector rotation.
Putting aside Nonfarm, the upcoming US market outlook:
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility after earnings disproof. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the earnings-driven expectation downgrade issue has not completely disappeared. The key focus is whether MU's critical support can hold; if it holds, it represents sectoral differentiated recovery; if it breaks down effectively, this round of storage market will enter mid-term valuation digestion. Do not mistake the oversold rebound for a new main upward wave.
2. Market structural differentiation will continue. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally is over, making stock picking more difficult.
3. Risks still cannot be ignored. The huge unlocking pressure of $SPCX remains and will occasionally disturb the market, amplifying intraday spike volatility.
Key stocks to watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with fading momentum and capital outflows:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity hub of the crypto market, determining the overall market heat level
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to accumulate, slowly consolidating chips through fluctuations
$SOL — The resilient player in the Layer1 track, with considerable upside when the market starts
$TAO & $WLD — AI mainline heat continues, repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — Market speculation sentiment gauge, used to judge current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail sentiment window, directly reflecting short-term speculative heat Breaking news! Positive or not?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the Nonfarm Payrolls will be released, and the US stock market is about to face a critical choice.
At 20:30 this Friday night, the July Nonfarm Employment Report will be released. This is the most important employment data after the Federal Reserve's July rate meeting and will directly rewrite the September interest rate expectations. All assets including US stocks, US bonds, and crypto will be affected.
Previously, the ADP small nonfarm data was significantly below expectations, which has already served as a warning to the market. The market is betting on a gradual cooling of employment.
Three data scenarios and their corresponding US stock market trends:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected, wages rise simultaneously
Employment is hot, delaying rate cut expectations, US bond yields rise. High-valuation AI tech and storage sectors bear the heaviest pressure; growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow Jones value blue chips are relatively resilient, leading to a differentiated market.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker, unemployment rate rises
The market will strengthen rate cut expectations, US bond yields fall, benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware may see a recovery rebound. But beware of a risk: data too poor may trigger market concerns about economic recession, causing a short-term broad sell-off.
Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations
Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold. US stocks continue the current split pattern, Dow Jones is relatively strong, Nasdaq fluctuates at high levels, and the market returns to earnings report logic with continued sector rotation.
Putting aside Nonfarm, the upcoming US market outlook:
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility after earnings disproof. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the earnings-driven expectation downgrade issue has not completely disappeared. The key focus is whether MU's critical support can hold; if it holds, it represents sectoral differentiated recovery; if it breaks down effectively, this round of storage market will enter mid-term valuation digestion. Do not mistake the oversold rebound for a new main upward wave.
2. Market structural differentiation will continue. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally is over, making stock picking more difficult.
3. Risks still cannot be ignored. The huge unlocking pressure of $SPCX remains and will occasionally disturb the market, amplifying intraday spike volatility.
Key stocks to watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with fading momentum and capital outflows:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity hub of the crypto market, determining the overall market heat level
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to accumulate, slowly consolidating chips through fluctuations
$SOL — The resilient player in the Layer1 track, with considerable upside when the market starts
$TAO & $WLD — AI mainline heat continues, repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — Market speculation sentiment gauge, used to judge current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail sentiment window, directly reflecting short-term speculative heat $PEOPLE These days, the stepwise rise is like suddenly jumping a step. Choosing a direction to open an order in this situation actually feels like flipping a coin. Because it is a stepwise rise, there is no need to choose a direction for now, as it has just started to rise. It has risen quite a bit from the low to the high, so if you want to short it, even if it falls back to the starting point, you can still make a good profit. So should you go short now? Personally, I think it's not time for now. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract long-short ratio continues to rise, and open interest tends to stabilize after a decline. Personally, I think the reason for this situation is that its surge has triggered a lot of short positions. Let's take a look at its recent contract data. Does this data look familiar? When I saw it, it looked very familiar, and I remembered the $MUBARAK data I had reviewed. Let's take a look at the data for $MUBARAK. Take a look—doesn't it look very similar? Based on $MUBARAK's past situation, $PEOPLE should still be in an upward phase. Therefore, I do not recommend shorting now. Does that mean that when $PEOPLE reaches a situation similar to $MUBARAK, they can short? Not necessarily. In my impression, $GIGGLE had similar situations before. However,