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Speech time: On Friday morning, August 28, at 22:00 Beijing time in the US East Coast, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting was his first major public speech since taking office as Federal Reserve Chair. Although it will not specifically target cryptocurrencies, interest rate and liquidity statements will directly affect BTC, US stocks, and RWA tokens. The market focuses on three core points. 1. Inflation and interest rate paths (top priority) Market game: Is he hawkish or sending a signal of rate cuts? - If hawkish: emphasizes stubborn inflation and retains the possibility of further rate hikes. A stronger dollar puts pressure on risk assets, BTC is likely to pull back, and altcoins like xNVDA and SNDK will weaken simultaneously. - If a dovish signal is issued: implying interest rate cuts will start within the year, boosting market risk appetite and benefiting BTC and growth assets. 2. Attitude toward financial innovation The theme of this conference is financial innovation. He won't directly support BTC, but will talk about digital assets and payment systems. Historical statement: Acknowledges that digital assets have become part of the US financial system, but clearly states that the Fed will not provide a safety net for the crypto industry and will not intervene in times of crisis, as the industry needs to be self-reliant. Focus on whether there are hints about ETF and stablecoin regulation. 3. Balance sheet reduction pace He has consistently advocated reducing the Fed's balance sheet. If liquidity tightening continues, global risk assets will be under overall pressure; If balance sheet reduction slows down, it would be an indirect positive for the crypto sector. Practical reminders for the crypto market 1. Don't take heavy positions early to bet on the outcome. Before speakingOn the surface, BTC just touched the new high of 81,266, and the whole internet is calling for it to hold above 80,000, but ETH can't even break above 2500. This kind of lively and conflicting mismatch is what really deserves to ponder today. Don't you find it strange? The market is clearly rising, so why is the counterfeit leader acting like something is holding it down? The ETH long position I had was swept into stop-loss at 2459—not because it was inserted by a pin, but by repeated friction. The 2500 level has bounced back and forth so many times, and every time it surges, it feels like hitting a glass ceiling. Volume can't keep up, buying can't take hold, and in the end, I can only watch the price slide down. Honestly, I stopped waiting and opened a short position at 2459. What I want to talk about here isn't the profit or loss of a single trade, but what the market is pricing in. ETH's derivatives structure has already exposed its weakness. The funding rate has turned flat, and open interest actually drops when the price rebounds—what does this mean? Bulls are reducing positions, not increasing positions. What truly supports the price is passive buying in the spot, but leveraged funds are no longer willing to take risks at this level. 2500 has been repeatedly tested but cannot be broken; every touch is accompanied by a decrease in open positions. This is a typical liquidity vacuum: orders are thick above, buying is sparse below, and prices can only spend time within this narrow range. BTC is different. It hit a new high, and even after falling back to around 78,800, the structure still saw a high point rise. BTC trades time for space, while ETH is about tradeThe cold wallet was left in a drawer, unconnected, not lost, and untouched. Then the coins were gone. This sounds like a horror story, but the most counterintuitive part of the Coldcard incident at the end of July was exactly that. According to CoinDesk, based on data from the research team, the attacker transferred over 1,000 BTC from 1,196 wallets in 41 minutes. The attack didn't require touching the device or stealing the rhyme; Researchers believe the problem lies in some old firmware seed generation lacking randomness, allowing attackers to reconstruct private keys somewhere else that "shouldn't have been guessed." I think the most memorable thing about this incident is: safes can be very sturdy, but if keys come in only a few shapes from birth, locking them for a long time is useless. Many people understand hardware wallet security but think of "offline." This is certainly important, but it only solves the problem of whether the key might be stolen later. Further up, there's another hurdle: how was this key originally generated? A truly reliable random number means there are so many candidates that the computer can't even try them all; Once the random process becomes predictable, what seems like a complex 24 words can just be a pretty shell for a small answer pool. The project team has publicly admitted that the affected version has seed generation flaws and released a fix. But it also emphasizes an easily overlooked fact: updating firmware can only fix the new seed generated later, not suddenly randomize the old seed. It's like replacing a better locksmith won't automatically change the old key in your pocketBitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, with $314 million more absorbed on August 25 alone, of which IBIT took $284 million. Many people's first reaction to this number is that institutions are about to push the price up again. I, however, think what’s more worth watching now is whether there is resonance between capital flows and price.
BTC is oscillating around $78,900, rising only about 0.5% that day, and the intraday range hasn’t been significantly expanded. ETF buying has indeed provided support for the spot market, but the price hasn’t broken through accordingly, indicating that there are still many profit-taking and trapped positions waiting to exit above. In other words, money is coming in, but there is not yet a scramble to accumulate.
The significance of this round of inflows is more about underpinning the market rather than immediately igniting it. IBIT alone contributed the vast majority of net inflows, reflecting that large capital still has demand for BTC allocation; but if the flow is too concentrated, it also means the market is overly dependent on a single channel. Once US stock risk appetite weakens or ETF inflows slow down, short-term sentiment could quickly turn sour.
Going forward, focus on two signals: whether ETF inflows can continue and spread beyond IBIT; and whether BTC can break above $80,000 with volume. The former indicates support, the latter shows willingness to chase prices. Until a breakout occurs, continue to short $BTC
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)📝 Today's share on $BTC
BTC pulled back after hitting 81270, testing the strength of the correction
📊 Market Analysis:
BTC surged to 81270 then retreated to 78762. Last week saw a 23% rally, mainly due to the US Treasury Secretary doubling bond repurchases + short squeeze. RSI daily at 82 is overbought, so a short-term pullback is almost inevitable.
📈 Trading Insights:
The rally driven by forced liquidations is hard to sustain; the key is whether spot buying can take over. ETF weekly net inflow of 1.92 billion is a positive signal, but if the pullback expands in volume and fails to recover, caution is needed.
⛏️ On-Chain Data:
Exchange BTC balances continue to decline, whales are withdrawing coins. Short-term holders' MVRV rose to 1.15, close to the 1.2 profit-taking threshold. Stablecoin inflows show no significant increase; new money is entering slowly.
📝 Market Commentary:
Currently, the market is driven by "news + short squeeze," not a full return of new liquidity. Before PCE and Jackson Hole events, it's better to watch more and trade less.
📈 Key Levels:
🟢 Support: 77800-78500
🔴 Resistance: 80000-81270
⚠️ Risk level: 77000
🧠 My Thoughts: Hold the base position, add more if 77800 stabilizes or breaks above 80000 with volume. September is usually the weakest month; position management is more important than directional judgment.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Understanding $SATO from On-Chain Data: A Reserve-Driven On-Chain Experiment
In the thriving ecosystem of Uniswap V4 Hook, $SATO has become a highly watched experimental token in the space due to its curve minting and ETH reserve-backed design. Setting aside market sentiment, we directly analyze the project's underlying status and operational logic through real on-chain data.
Currently, a total of 15.317 million SATO have been minted, accounting for 72.94% of the theoretical maximum supply of 20.5 million. The design sets 21 million as an asymptotic upper limit; this figure is a theoretical approaching value, and the protocol mechanism is designed so that this ceiling can never be fully reached at once—there will be no scenario of minting the entire supply in a single event. Meanwhile, 3.446 million SATO have been permanently burned, representing 16.41% of the total maximum supply. The burns come from secondary market redemptions and the protocol’s built-in deflationary mechanism. Burned tokens are completely removed from circulation and cannot re-enter the market.
This curve mechanism features two key prices: a minting marginal price of $0.5621 (0.00022352 ETH) and a burning marginal price of $0.2206 (0.00008772 ETH). Simply put, when users inject ETH into the contract to mint new SATO, the cost per additional token rises toward the minting marginal price; conversely, when users redeem SATO for ETH by burning tokens, the redemption reference price corresponds to the burning marginal price. The price difference between these two points is the source of the protocol’s reserve earnings. These are not fixed trading prices for the token; the secondary market DEX price will fluctuate independently of these values.
The circulating market value, calculated at the minting marginal price, is $8.61 million. The Hook contract holds 1119.7 ETH in reserves, equivalent to about $2.82 million. This ETH serves as the physical backing for the entire token. On average, each circulating SATO corresponds to a reserve backing value of $0.1838. This figure represents the actual ETH held by the protocol and forms the core safety net of the token: even if market sentiment declines, the token has on-chain reserves as a baseline support, clearly distinguishing it from pure Meme tokens with no asset backing. Additionally, the protocol has accumulated 100.46 ETH in fees, approximately $252,650, which are permanently locked in the Hook contract and cannot be withdrawn or misappropriated by the team.
Unlike ordinary tokens, SATO has no team pre-mine or large team holdings; all tokens are minted by users injecting ETH. The contract has no admin minting rights; the only way to create new tokens is through external users depositing ETH, which simultaneously increases the reserve pool. Burning tokens means users return tokens to redeem ETH from the reserve pool, permanently destroying the tokens. Overall supply is entirely determined by market user behavior.
Notably, all reserve assets of SATO are stored in ETH within the contract, which brings a unique potential benefit: if ETH’s price rises significantly in the future, the USD valuation of the reserves in the contract will passively increase. Assuming the total SATO supply remains relatively stable, the reserve backing value per token will rise accordingly. The original underlying safety net will be further strengthened, enhancing the token’s intrinsic on-chain value. The appreciation of reserve ETH does not create new SATO tokens out of thin air but raises the protocol’s fundamental floor, boosting market confidence and attracting more participants to mint and trade, creating a positive feedback loop. Conversely, if ETH’s price falls, the USD value of the backing will shrink accordingly, which is a risk that must be acknowledged.
Of course, risks must be viewed objectively. First, the minting and burning marginal prices do not equal the secondary market transaction price; market prices can be significantly higher than the minting price or fall below the backing price, so market volatility risk remains high. Second, the asymptotic total supply is just a mathematical model; actual circulation will continuously fluctuate with minting and burning dynamics. Third, as an early experimental project on Uniswap V4 Hook, it is an on-chain innovation trial with complex contract logic and unknown contract-level risks. Additionally, ETH’s own market volatility directly affects the USD valuation of the reserves.
Compared to many Meme coins driven by narratives in the space, SATO openly publishes its reserve assets, burn volume, and minting costs on-chain for anyone to verify directly, without relying on unilateral claims from the project team. It encodes “asset backing” into the contract’s foundation.Based on the currently announced temporary route between Iran and Oman, it is clear that Iran is taking concrete actions to supervise and control the Strait of Hormuz.
The temporary route is about 7 nautical miles ≈ 13 kilometers wide. According to data from August 4, the entrance is most likely close to Omani waters, but the main passage subsequently goes through Iranian waters, entering under Iranian supervision.
The exit passes through Iranian waters and then through Omani waters, with Oman deciding whether to allow passage, but Iran must be notified and has the right to be informed.
Additionally, according to current information, the activation of the new temporary route means the original southern route will be closed, and all ships in the coming months will have to pass through the temporary route.
Overall, Iran no longer relies on political control over the sovereignty of the strait but has moved into actual supervision and control. This is very unfavorable for the United States. Under what conditions can the U.S. accept this reality? #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 "Revolut's Aggressive Push for EURR Before the August 31 Deadline: Who Swallowed the Stablecoin Ledger of 45 Million European Users?"
Only 5 days remain until the August 31 deadline for the full phase-out of USDT. Europe's largest fintech, Revolut, suddenly teamed up with Bridge, a subsidiary of Stripe, to launch the compliant euro stablecoin EURR.
The EU's MiCA regulation imposes a 60% bank deposit red line, cutting off Tether's lifeline of relying on $184 billion in assets to earn 83% high-yield US Treasury interest, forcing it to abandon its licensed European channel.
Revolut has taken advantage of this to remove USDT from its shelves, diverting all the accrued interest, exchange spreads, and deposit/withdrawal flows of 45 million European users into its own treasury. Global stablecoins are now fully heading towards a bifurcated landscape of offshore freedom and licensed domestic strongholds. $BTC Bitcoin surged to 80,000 but didn't immediately drop down, holding near 79,000 today. This is actually quite important. In the past week, it rose from over 60,000 to 80,000, an increase of nearly 25%. It's perfectly normal for some people to take profits now. BTC fell less than 1% today, but ETH and SOL both recovered about 3%, and XRP pulled back more than 4%. I actually think this trend is healthy. If it keeps surging all at once, it might actually absorb short-term funds and leverage. The most worth watching now is the 79,000 level. If it can slowly wear down here, it means selling pressure near 80,000 is being digested. If you push to 80,000 or even higher, your confidence will be much stronger than yesterday. But the market has clearly heated up. The panic and greed index jumped from 27 to 74 in 12 days, then returned to 65. The last time it was this high was before the sharp drop in October last year, when nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out. This data doesn't mean it's about to fall, but at least it serves as a reminder: now is no longer the time to blindly chase rallies. Interestingly, the fundamentals haven't cooled down accordingly. CryptoQuant's bull score has risen from 30 to 80, with 8 out of 10 indicators being relatively high, and both spot and futures demand are rising again. The U.S. banking industry has even started planning its own national blockchain network, preparing to push stablecoins, payments, and tokenized deposits into the traditional banking system. So I won't drop from BTC 80,000 to 7 just because it's not happening now$xSKHY SK Hynix ADR $159.53 (closing on 8/25), up 2.68%. Q2 revenue ₩79.3 trillion, profit ₩60.5 trillion, profit margin 76%. HBM4 has started mass production.
What does this profit margin mean in the semiconductor industry? TSMC's Q2 gross margin is 53%, Samsung Semiconductor's is 38%, SK Hynix's is 76%. The most profitable memory company in the world, bar none.
HBM4 is the next-generation high-bandwidth memory, with Nvidia as the main customer. SK Hynix's market share in HBM exceeds 50%, and the mass production of HBM4 means it is at least 6-9 months ahead of Samsung in this race. If NVDA's earnings report tonight shows strong guidance and confirms HBM4 demand, SK Hynix will be the most direct beneficiary.
When SK Hynix fell from ₩2.6M to ₩1.3M in the second half of last year, a Korean analyst friend said "Korean semiconductors are overvalued." Now it seems it wasn't overvalued but panic sold too low. Q2 profit margin 76%, PBR only 1.8x, PER 3.5x. This is one of the cheapest semiconductor stocks globally.
KOSPI 000660 ₩1,580,000 (data as of 8/4 with some lag), ADR $159.53 is closer to real-time. Mirae Asset target ₩2.8M, +97%.
In terms of trading, ADR 155 is support, 165 resistance. Breaking through 170 opens up upside space. HBM4 mass production + NVDA earnings report are dual catalysts. Mid-term target is ₩2.8M Tonight at 20:30, the US July Core PCE Price Index will be released — this is the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation gauge and a key vote determining the September interest rate path. The market expects a year-over-year 3.3%, unchanged from the previous value.
PCE > expectation (YoY > 3.3% or MoM ≥ 0.3%) → Inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, September rate hike expectations rise, US Treasury yields rebound, the dollar strengthens, while US stocks, gold, and BTC come under pressure.
PCE = expectation (YoY 3.3% / MoM 0.2%) → Inflation remains stalled at a high level, the market continues the "high rates last longer" logic, and various assets overall remain neutral.
PCE < expectation (YoY < 3.3% or MoM < 0.2%) → Inflation cooling is confirmed, rate cut expectations move forward, US Treasury yields and the dollar decline, and risk assets like gold and BTC are expected to rally.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Yellen is facing a severe test in the US debt market — reports indicate the Treasury is considering using nearly $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account (TGA) to fund the expanded long-term Treasury buyback program, dubbed a "Treasury version of Operation Twist" by outsiders, aimed at lowering long-term yields and easing Treasury selling pressure. If tonight's PCE unexpectedly falls, it will create a more favorable macro environment for this operation — inflation easing combined with Treasury bond buying to suppress rates, a double benefit likely to drive funds into BTC and gold seeking hedging and yield.
This Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole symposium, and tonight's PCE data is the key to handing him the microphone — if the data is moderate, he has room to signal dovishness on Friday; if the data exceeds expectations, Powell may continue to hawk.
The market estimates tonight's PCE will likely be moderate or slightly low. If combined with Yellen's buyback operation to suppress long-term rates, it will undoubtedly open upside space for $BTC and gold. Waiting eagerly for the 20:30 data release!
$ETH #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
The sanctions escalation is real, but the US has temporarily delayed implementing secondary sanctions, and Iran is still in talks, indicating that both sides are leaving a diplomatic backdoor. Oil prices falling back below $90 is the market's way of saying — you shout loudly, but no one wants a complete fallout.
The sanctions have indeed been intensified. On August 24, Bassett announced an "economic isolation" against Iran, covering five major areas: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, adding about 60 sanctioned entities. Digital assets were included in the Iran sanctions for the first time, with the US Treasury aiming to cut off Iran's external financing channels through cryptocurrency.
Trump called this an "economic D-Day," warning that any country providing "any form of lifeline" to Iran would face "extremely severe economic sanctions."
However, the actual effectiveness of the sanctions is questionable. The US has yet to impose major secondary sanctions on any country. China purchases about 90% of Iran's oil, and as long as China continues buying, the impact of these sanctions will be greatly diminished.
Navigation talks are also progressing simultaneously. On August 25, Iran and Oman announced the establishment of a temporary joint corridor and joint mine clearance. Oil prices responded by dropping below $90. But Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Karbasian clearly warned: "This does not mean the Strait will immediately reopen."Nvidia's earnings report is currently the core indicator of the US AI sector, affecting not only its own stock price but also driving collective fluctuations across the entire Nasdaq, semiconductor, and storage industry chains. Three scenarios 1. Earnings exceed expectations: Data center revenue, next quarter guidance, and gross margin all exceed market expectations. Nvidia's stock price surges, driving strength in HBM storage sectors such as Micron and SK Hynix, with the Nasdaq following the rebound, AI tech stocks collectively recovering, and risk appetite rising. RWA tokens xNVDA and SNDK also strengthened. 2. Meeting expectations: performance meets targets but no surprises, likely leading to "positive news realized but high opening followed by pullback." Sector internal division is sharp; storage chains with real orders are relatively resilient to declines, while pure thematic AI concept stocks surge and plunge. 3. Below expectations: revenue and next quarter guidance decline or gross margin declines. Nvidia will experience a sharp correction, dragging down the entire Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, with storage chips collectively selling valuations, the Nasdaq under pressure and pulling back, and growth stocks generally facing valuation compression. Industry chain transmission logic: Nvidia is the largest purchaser of HBM high-bandwidth storage. The demand guidance for AI computing power in its financial report directly determines the prosperity of Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk. Optimistic guidance, storage manufacturers raise their order expectations; Once demand guidance weakens, the storage sector will be the first to plunge. Alert for RWA tokens in the crypto market: xNVDA and SNDK are tokenized US stocks with 24-hour trading in the crypto world, but the real pricing power in earnings reports lies in the after-hours trading of the US market. False volatility is common during the market close, so be sure to wait for US stocks to open and take actionA $935B TGA sounds like a giant liquidity bazooka, but this isn't QE. Using part of Treasury's cash balance for long-bond buybacks could improve market liquidity and temporarily ease pressure on yields. It cannot erase the deficits, issuance or inflation driving long rates higher. That's the distinction that matters for BTC and gold. If buybacks lower yields sustainably, risk assets get breathing room. If they only calm volatility, the structural rate problem remains. #TreasuryEyesTGABuybacks Trump knows that the United States wants to ease the pressure of the $40 trillion national debt, and Bitcoin is the only solution. The biggest problem with the dollar system is that the U.S. imports goods, and after dollars are paid overseas, those dollars in foreign hands have to be placed somewhere. In the past, the only asset that was truly safe, highly liquid, and capable of absorbing such a large amount of money was basically U.S. Treasury bonds. To solve this problem, a second global reserve asset must be created: politically neutral enough that everyone is willing to treat it as a safe store of value, and its scale and liquidity must be large enough to hold trillions of dollars. Although gold also serves this function, physical gold is too troublesome to transfer, store, and settle, so its scale has always been far smaller than U.S. Treasury bonds.
Therefore, the only real solution is Bitcoin. At $100,000 per coin, Bitcoin's market cap is about $2 trillion. If it rises to $5 trillion, which is about $250,000 per coin, the scale would be large enough for governments around the world to seriously consider holding it as a reserve. Excluding jewelry, gold as an investment and store of value is worth about $14 trillion. For Bitcoin to reach this scale, it would need to rise to about $700,000 per coin. So Trump's strategy is to have the U.S. government and Americans acquire as much Bitcoin as possible while it is still not that large, and at the same time, gradually promote Bitcoin as a global reserve asset through policy. This is also why he is so actively supporting Crypto, even creating a cryptocurrency reserve.
In the future, as Bitcoin grows larger and more liquid, the dollars held by foreign governments and investors can also be used to buy Bitcoin. Americans already hold a lot of Bitcoin, so this could become a huge wealth transfer. The more foreigners buy, the higher Bitcoin rises, and the assets held by Americans also appreciate. Of course, this money will not be used directly to pay off U.S. debt, but the U.S. government can obtain some revenue through taxes and the appreciation of its own Bitcoin holdings. In short, it is letting foreigners buy Bitcoin, which indirectly helps the U.S. pay off its debt in the end.PCE and Jackson Hole Take Over — Two Major Events This Week Set the Direction
BTC breaks below 78,000, currently around 77,500, retreating for two consecutive days after a 24% weekly gain. ETH weakens in sync to 2,440. Liquidations reached $460 million in the past 24 hours.
This BTC surge was ignited by the US Treasury doubling the scale of long-term bond buybacks, with the 30-year yield falling from 5.34% to about 5.19%, the dollar weakening, and risk assets rising across the board. But Basset later said the market was "overreacting," emphasizing it was not QE. The dollar index rebounded, and BTC subsequently fell from 81,200 to 77,500.
Two major events take over this week:
First: July US Core PCE on August 27. The Fed's most watched inflation gauge. June core PCE rose only 0.1% month-over-month, but the Cleveland Fed model suggests July could jump to 0.25%. If PCE rebounds, rate hike expectations will heat up, putting pressure on BTC and gold.
Second: Fed Chair Wash's first speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 28. Since taking office, Wash canceled forward guidance and communicates very subtly. The market is eager to hear clues from him about a September rate hike, but he may give fewer signals — uncertainty itself is a source of volatility. Wash once proposed reducing the annual rate meetings from 8 to 6 to modernize monetary policy. If his tone leans hawkish, it could trigger market repricing.
BTC dominance rises to 59.68%, funds still seeking BTC as a safe haven, while altcoins continue to bleed out Saylor precisely anchors Bitcoin's future blueprint as a "digital capital transformation," targeting a vast traditional asset pool worth hundreds of billions of dollars, including global equities, fixed income, and gold. In his strategic vision, Bitcoin has broken free from the narrow "peer-to-peer electronic cash" definition in the Nakamoto whitepaper, evolving ultimately into the underlying infrastructure that supports the high-speed operation of the entire digital capital market.
Strategic Communication from an Institutional Perspective
Releasing this reform discourse at this moment deeply reflects MicroStrategy's strategic trajectory in recent years, transitioning comprehensively from a traditional software company to a macro Bitcoin holder. From advocating "custodial sovereignty" to introducing "counterparty trust management," Saylor is committed to smoothly transitioning Bitcoin from its early absolute decentralized architecture to an asset allocation model compatible with mainstream institutions and even sovereign-level participation. This logical restructuring essentially fills a narrative gap with a macro perspective for Wall Street and the broader traditional capital amid the current digital asset boom.【ETF Funds Keep Flowing In, But Institutions Haven't Officially Turned Bullish Yet】
This recent crypto market rally is driven not only by a short squeeze but also by a return of spot ETF buying.
$BTC spot ETFs saw a latest single-day net inflow of about $338M, marking 6 consecutive trading days of inflows, totaling approximately $2.26B. Last week alone attracted about $1.92B, the largest weekly inflow since October 2025.
$ETH ETFs also recorded 6 consecutive days of inflows, with the latest single-day inflow around $115.6M, totaling about $812.8M during this period.
This indicates that traditional capital is re-entering the market, supporting BTC and ETH rebounds not only through short covering but also with spot demand.
However, it's too early to pop the champagne. Year-to-date in 2026, BTC ETFs still have a net outflow of about $2.57B, and ETH ETFs a net outflow of about $1.3B. Recent inflows mainly patch previous gaps; the overall capital direction for the year has yet to turn positive.
In contrast, $XRP ETFs are moving to a different beat. The latest single-day net inflow is about $13.8M, with a year-to-date net inflow of approximately $400M. Since listing, $XRP ETFs have attracted about $1.57B, making it the only one among the three to maintain net inflows this year.
The key to watch next is whether BTC and ETH ETFs can sustain inflows for several weeks. If they can, the foundation of this rally will be fundamentally different. Last week, the market was lively and celebrated all week—how is everyone's mindset now? Unknowingly, BTC has been oscillating back and forth around $80,000. Many friends are still stuck inside, still some distance from their previous break-even peak. Today, let's review the ins and outs of this rally and see which key information we have overlooked. Let's talk about why whales chose to exit, and whether another rally will occur after this round. Policies driving the market will see the pace of rises and falls be even faster than usual. Let's get straight to the main topic. Back to today's core question: does this rally signal the start of a bull market? From my perspective, many conditions seen in the early stages of a bull market have already appeared: policy expectations are starting to ferment, ETF funds continue to follow, and mainstream coins collectively strengthen in tandem. All the necessary elements have already appeared. But the final confirmation threshold remains to be seen—whether the $80,000 mark can be held firmly and whether new policy news will follow up to boost the market. When talking about policy, you can't avoid this White House meeting. When the news first came out, the market was stirred up all about sentiment. The president, regulators, leading exchanges, and Wall Street institutions sitting at the same table, the market's direct feeling was that the status of the crypto industry had changed, officially putting it on the table for U.S. financial policy negotiations. After a week of settling down, what really stirred up the market was Trump's push to push Congress to implement the CLARITY Act. Simply put, this bill aims to set the boundaries of crypto regulationThe contraction in early supply mainly reflects the reduced attractiveness of stablecoin holdings in a high-interest environment, as well as multiple pressures brought by the implementation of the European MiCA regulation and competition from tokenized funds. Now, with the market risk appetite warming up and policy direction shifting, funds are once again converging into the stablecoin channel. The research report outlines five positive factors driving the next phase of stablecoin explosion:
1. The overall recovery of the crypto market drives capital inflow;
2. The US regulatory environment is gradually becoming clearer;
3. The accelerated implementation of tokenized capital markets (RWA);
4. The continuous increase in stablecoin payment penetration; 5. AI Agent (AIAgent) has already shown early signs of using stablecoins for settlement.
Quarterly revenue exceeds $700 million
Based on fundamental improvements, Bernstein maintains an outperform rating on Circle with a target price of $140. Reviewing its capital market journey, Circle went public in June 2025 with an issue price set at $31, raising approximately $1.1 billion. After a valuation correction in November 2025, the latest quarterly report shows revenue reaching $701 million and net profit recording $48 million, both achieving positive year-on-year growth, providing solid data support for Wall Street’s pricing models.
It should be noted that Circle’s stock price has risen about 40% over the past month, indicating that secondary market funds have already priced in some optimistic expectations. Whether the valuation can further break upward in the future will highly depend on three core variables: USDC supply surged by $2 billion in seven days, stablecoin trading volume share surpasses USDT for the first time
In the stablecoin race, absolute market capitalization is no longer the sole metric. Although USDC still ranks behind Tether (USDT) in total market cap, the competitive landscape has fundamentally reversed when measured by adjusted trading volume, which reflects actual circulation efficiency.
Data shows that USDC's market share of adjusted stablecoin trading volume has climbed from about 40% in 2025 to over 60% so far in 2026, successfully surpassing USDT in this key dimension. This shift in data perspective indicates that the market's evaluation of stablecoins is moving from a single focus on locked capital to the depth of their actual payment use and injection into the real economy cycle. If AI agent payments are included in this new track, USDC's commercial catch-up momentum is expected to further amplify. ZEC at $790, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: ETF launched, surged then pulled back, retail investors panicked.
In the past week, ZEC surged from 570 all the way to 883-888, hitting an eight-year high, the whole network celebrating "the spring of privacy coins has arrived." Then on August 25, Grayscale ZCSH officially debuted on NYSE Arca, and that day it immediately dropped sharply, hitting a low of 754, now struggling at 790.
A typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario.
First thing: The ETF is here, but the 2.5% fee tells you institutions aren’t that enthusiastic.
The world’s first ZEC spot ETF, with AUM around $310 million, holding 390,000 ZEC. Sounds like great news?
But look closely at the fee: 2.5%. BTC ETFs usually charge 0.2-0.4%, this is 5-10 times more expensive. Even Grayscale itself isn’t confident about attracting large-scale institutional funds, so they have to make a quick profit with high fees first. The first-year management fee flows back into the ecosystem for marketing—translated: they’re afraid no one will buy, so they’re using money for advertising.
Classic pattern: rush to accumulate before ETF launch, surge then pull back after launch.
Second thing: The NU7 vote is triggering an even bigger bomb.
The token holder vote started around August 25, topics include: whether to adjust the issuance mechanism, whether to weaken or cancel the traditional halving, and switch to a smoother issuance curve.
Only shielded ZEC spendable in the Ironwood privacy pool has voting rights, with rumored thresholds at the million-coin level. #JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk, AI storage valuation under renewed scrutiny
Regulatory filings show that top quantitative firm Jane Street has increased its SanDisk holdings to 7.41 million shares, making it their second largest single position. This move has refocused the market on the enterprise storage sector, which has long been overshadowed by the spotlight on computing power.
Over the past two years, capital has been frantically chasing GPUs and HBM high-bandwidth memory, but with the explosion of long-context reasoning, multimodal video generation, and AI Agent historical state storage, the memory wall and storage throughput are becoming new bottlenecks limiting system efficiency. The core logic behind top firms like Jane Street increasing their holdings is to capture undervaluation correction opportunities brought by the overflow of computing bottlenecks.
However, when evaluating the AI storage sector, one cannot only look at demand fantasies driven by concepts. The storage industry itself has strong cyclical characteristics, and the key focus should be on the shipment proportion of high gross margin enterprise products and the long-term procurement orders from downstream cloud providers. Without high gross margin barriers, once capacity catches up and price wars ensue, rollercoaster-like market swings can easily backfire on valuations.
In terms of specific picks, HBM leaders like SK Hynix and Micron enjoy a certainty premium, but in the large-capacity enterprise SSD and NAND space, companies like SanDisk with the ability to achieve technological iteration breakthroughs also have excellent upside potential. A reasonable strategy is to balance allocations along the critical chain of AI data throughput.
With top quantitative firms making large-scale additions to storage leaders, how much further upside do you think the AI storage sector has? Dogecoin falls more than Bitcoin, and it's not just "emotional" in the crypto space; it's inherently a high-beta risk preference amplifier—when Bitcoin drops by 1 unit, Dogecoin often drops by 2 to 3 units.
From a sensitivity perspective, the scale difference is obvious. Bitcoin's annualized historical volatility over the past three years is about 47%, with a maximum drawdown around 50%; whereas Dogecoin's annualized volatility has long been in the 125% to 140% range, roughly twice that of Bitcoin. Its rolling correlation with BTC usually ranges from 0.55 to 0.65—moving in the same direction as Bitcoin but with leveraged amplitude. In other words, correlation controls direction, volatility controls elasticity, and multiplying the two naturally amplifies the decline.
Why is the elasticity so large? The core lies in three layers of structure. First, the buying structure differs: Bitcoin has ETFs and institutional allocation absorbing the sell-off, while $DOGE holdings are mainly retail and short-term leveraged traders; when it falls, no one steps in, and derivative open contracts get squeezed, triggering a chain of forced liquidations. Second, the pricing anchor differs: $BTC is backed by scarcity narrative and macro asset attributes, while Dogecoin lacks application layers and cash flow support; its valuation relies almost entirely on attention and sentiment, so when sentiment withdraws, there's no floor to the discount. Third, liquidity depth differs: the same selling pressure hits a thinner order book, and slippage itself adds to the additional decline.
The reverse is also true: during rebounds, it rises more sharply than Bitcoin, and historically, single-cycle gains of tens of times reflect this elasticity.#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Wash is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole at 10 PM on Friday. This will be his most important statement since taking office and a signal that the bond market has been waiting for a long time.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2007. Since Wash took office, he scrapped forward guidance, and his statement after the July FOMC meeting was ambiguous, which the market directly interpreted as a "lack of determination to fight inflation." Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed's credibility is at risk.
CME data shows about a 60% probability of maintaining rates in September and a 40% chance of a rate hike. A month ago, a rate hike was "almost certain," but now it has become a guessing game. The market is waiting for Wash to provide a framework that connects data changes with policy actions.
At 10 PM on Friday, an Allspring executive said the risk at Jackson Hole is even greater than the $NVDA Nvidia earnings report. The bond market has already backed itself into a corner; every word Wash says could determine whether the 30-year yield stabilizes at 5.2% or surges to 5.5%. #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
Impact on ZEC can be analyzed in two layers.
In the short term, ZEC has already priced in the ETF listing expectation by rising from 250 to 859. The first-day trading volume did not exceed expectations with a surge, so short-term sentiment is prone to a "good news realization" style pullback. ZEC's rise and fall follows this logic.
In the medium to long term, the sustainability brought by the ETF is more important. Bitcoin's trend has already proven that as long as the ETF continues to have net subscriptions, the price will gradually rise. Now that Zcash has a compliant channel, allocation funds will come in; the pace may be slow, but the direction is upward. If we see continuous inflows into the ETF in the next one or two weeks, ZEC's bottom will keep rising, and pullbacks will instead be opportunities.
Here is my view.
The launch of the Zcash ETF is indeed a milestone for the privacy sector, as institutional funds finally have a compliant channel to enter. However, the ceiling for the privacy sector is not as high as Bitcoin's. Whether Zcash can rise from 250 to 2000 depends not on retail sentiment gambling, but on whether the ETF can continuously attract capital inflows over the next 12 to 18 months.
What do you think?
$BTC $ZEC $ETH Let's first look at the current coordinates: - Gold 4600+, hitting a historic high - BTC breaks 80,000, up 25% in three days - US debt at 40 trillion, Treasury begins buybacks - CPI bottoms out, rate hikes peak, easing expectations rise These four signals together point to the same future: global liquidity shifts from "contraction" to "expansion." The three main economic themes ahead: 1. Start of the rate cut cycle (second half of 2026) CPI bottoms → Fed signals easing → September meeting is a key node. Once rate cuts land: - USD weakens → Gold, BTC, and commodities continue to rise - Global assets "rise with the tide" - Emerging markets (especially Asia) see capital inflows 2. Accelerated fiscal expansion (2027 outlook) The 40 trillion US debt will continue to be borrowed; Treasury buybacks = printing money to buy its own debt. The end of debt monetization is the return of inflation. Why is gold rising? Because the market has already sensed the "printing press restarting." 3. Asset repricing (in progress) The old anchor (US debt) is loosening, the new anchor (gold + BTC) is forming. Capital is flowing from "paper assets" to "hard assets"—this is the biggest trend for the next 2-3 years. But the turning period is also a "danger period": Risk one: Rate cuts may "fall short of expectations" The market has priced in rate cuts—if the Fed only cuts once and stops, expectations are dashed = a major correction. Risk two: Inflation rebound Rate cuts + printing = "Inflation bomb" explodes tonight! Core PCE may break through 3.3%, the rate hike knife is already set before Waller even takes office
Tonight, the July core PCE data will be released with great impact! The year-on-year expectation remains at 3.3%, crushing the Fed's 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Even more painful is that price increases in the AI industry chain, high stock market valuations driving up portfolio management fees, and Middle East tensions pushing up energy costs—under this triple pressure, inflation simply won't come down. Goldman Sachs even calculated separately that just the stock market valuation alone contributed 0.11 percentage points to the month-on-month increase.
Before the data is out, the probability of a rate hike in September has already surged to 40.1%. If tonight's PCE exceeds expectations, this fire will directly burn into Waller's Jackson Hole debut on Friday—even if he wants to be dovish, the data won't allow it.
Wait for the PCE results to land, then see how Waller responds. Those rushing in now are just cannon fodder for the data. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Iran–Oman talks are reviving hopes for a temporary Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor, helping push oil prices lower and easing near-term inflation concerns. At the same time, the U.S. has expanded sanctions on Iran-linked networks, keeping geopolitical risks firmly on the table. For crypto, the setup is mixed. $BTC is holding near $79K while $ETH trades around $2.5K. If diplomacy progresses and oil continues to cool, risk assets could benefit. But any breakdown in talks or escalation of sanctioBesides Changxin Storage, a certain platform quietly launched the latest hot topic in embodied intelligence: Yushu Technology (due to compliance, it cannot be promoted, but this actually creates an information gap; people in the crypto circle don't know, and those in the A-share market know even less).
It has dropped for four to five days now. Since short selling is not allowed in the A-share market, you know what to do with the next big A-share target.
- Changxin circulating shares: 6.7%, unlocking 2.27% on January 27 next year
- Yushu circulating shares: 7.44%, unlocking 0.56% on February 19 next year
So currently, the selling pressure isn't that big. Even with unlocking, the selling pressure won't be that large. For now, don't short it.Regarding the future trends of $BTC and $ETH, there are currently two completely different voices in the market: one side is optimistic due to the recent strong rebound, while the other remains cautious because of long-term adjustments and uncertainties. Behind this is actually a game between short-term policy stimulus, market data improvement, and long-term liquidity and institutional cautiousness.
📈 Optimistic signals: Has the rebound already started?
Recently, the market has experienced a strong rebound driven by several key factors:
· US Treasury repo ignites the market: On August 20, the US Treasury announced doubling the bond repurchase scale, which the market interpreted as liquidity release, directly triggering this rebound. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes believes that under the pressure of $40 trillion debt, the US can only release liquidity, which will drive Bitcoin up.
· Shorts suffered a "bloodbath": On the day the news was announced, the crypto market recorded the largest single-day gain of the year, with $BTC breaking through $79,000 and $ETH recovering to $2,400. Over $2.75 billion worth of $BTC short positions were liquidated that day, fueling the rebound.
· Demand and institutional funds warming up: Data shows that crypto demand grew by 22% in the past 7 days. On August 24, spot $ETF net inflows for $BTC and $ETH were $337 million and $115 million respectively, indicating a recovery of institutional interest.
· Sellers have shown "exhaustion": A key indicator measuring selling pressure dropped to historically low levels (the 11th time in history). After the previous 10 occurrences, $BTC rose within a year with a median increase of 155%.
⚠️ Risks and concerns: Can the rebound continue?
Despite the strong momentum, many analysts warn that it may be too early to declare a reversal:
· US buying remains weak: The "Coinbase Premium Index," which measures US investor demand, has been negative for 95 consecutive days, a record longest streak, indicating that spot buying in the US remains weak and the rebound is mostly driven by derivatives short covering.
· $ETF net outflows for the year: Despite recent inflows, since 2026, Bitcoin $ETF reserves have decreased by nearly 92,000 $BTC, showing institutions are still withdrawing over the year.
· Macro and regulatory uncertainties: A Goldman Sachs report points out that crypto trading volume has declined for 10 consecutive months, and 35% of institutional investors see regulatory uncertainty as the biggest obstacle. Citibank earlier downgraded 12-month target prices for $BTC and $ETH to $82,000 and $2,240 respectively due to issues like $ETF fund turning negative.
🧐 Industry leaders’ views: Finding consensus amid divergence
Regarding the future market, industry leaders have different opinions:
· Arthur Hayes (extremely bullish on $ETH): Believes that in this liquidity rebound, $ETH will outperform all large-cap assets, with $BTC market dominance possibly dropping from 60% to 40%, and $ETH price potentially reaching $20,000-$30,000.
· Fundstrat (dip then rise): Thinks $BTC may first pull back to $60,000-$65,000 and $ETH to $1,800-$2,000 in the first half of 2026, but this will be a good entry point before year-end targets of $BTC at $115,000 and $ETH at $4,500.
· CZ (cautious): Attributes the 2026 downturn to AI hype drawing funds away, geopolitical risks, and the four-year cycle, considering it a phase adjustment.
💎 Summary
In the short term, the market focus is whether this rebound can shift from "short squeeze" to "spot demand driven." Whether $BTC can hold and break through $80,000, and whether the Coinbase Premium Index can turn positive, are key to judging trend reversal. From a mid-to-long-term perspective, US debt issues, regulatory progress (such as possible policies in September), and the overall liquidity environment will be core factors determining the trend in the second half of the year. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 这次最值得注意的，不只是IBIT规模有多大，而是越来越多原本自己保管BTC的大户，开始把手里的BTC直接换进ETF结构。 据披露，目前通过实物申购（in-kind）的方式进入ETF的BTC规模已经超过50亿美元，而且这类交易的最低门槛已经从2500万美元降到了100万美元。简单理解就是：以前大户想把BTC搬进ETF，门槛高得吓人，现在普通机构级资金也更容易参与了。👀 这种方式和传统的“卖BTC换美元，再买ETF”不太一样。符合条件的投资者可以直接把BTC交给授权参与机构，换成IBIT份额。这样少了一次先卖再买的折腾，也可能降低交易过程中的滑点和执行成本，具体税务效果则要看投资者自身情况和交易结构。 为什么越来越多大户愿意这么干？ 说白了，BTC放自己钱包里，钱是自己的，但麻烦也是自己的。 私钥怎么保管？安全怎么做？几十亿资产怎么防盗？团队怎么管理？出了问题又找谁？ 现在有人开始觉得，与其自己天天操心，不如把BTC交给成熟的金融体系管理，自己拿着ETF份额，照样能获得BTC价格敞口。 而BlackRock的IBIT已经成了这个“新停车场”，截至8月24日，其净资产规模约603亿美元。?NVIDIA leads earnings reports, but this time the market isn't looking at whether AI is still hot
The hype no longer needs to be proven. What really needs to be verified is: can these massive AI expenditures start turning into sustainable returns? NVIDIA focuses on GPU and system pricing power, Marvell looks at data center networking and custom chip demand; together, the two companies cover the upstream and midstream of AI infrastructure
If orders are strong and profits stable, AI trades can continue to breathe; if revenue looks good but costs, memory price hikes, and customer concentration start squeezing profits, the market will immediately find fault
AI is no longer at the stage of "rising just by talking about the future." The bill has come, and only those who can turn compute hunger into cash flow deserve to continue enjoying high valuations
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 Bitcoin is stuck below eighty thousand, is the surge in altcoins really a bull market signal?
Afternoon session on August 26
"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." — Warren Buffett
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Volatility may suddenly increase before and after data releases; please control your position size in contract trading.
This morning, we focused on whether the $80,000 level could shift from resistance to support. By the afternoon, the answer was still no. Bitcoin's intraday high reached $79,931, then retreated back to around $78,700, down about 1.4% in 24 hours; ETH held near $2,450, but SOL, XRP, and DOGE generally dropped 3%–5%. This indicates that funds have not broadly dispersed, and the market is still waiting for direction. As for small coins like BTR, which surged over 150% in a single day, it looks more like localized leveraged funds creating emotional fireworks, and one coin's frenzy cannot prove that the entire altcoin season has arrived.
Why is the market reluctant to break through? Because at 20:30 tonight, the US July PCE inflation and Q2 GDP revision will be released, with the core PCE being the variable that funds are truly watching. The market generally expects core PCE to rise 0.2% month-over-month and remain around 3.3% year-over-year, which is still far from the Fed's 2% target. So the key tonight is not whether the data "looks good or bad," but whether it exceeds market expectations again. Betting on the result prematurely is essentially like giving yourself a perfect score before the exam starts—courageous but not necessarily high probability.
If core PCE is below or meets expectations, US Treasury yields will continue to ease, and the dollar will not rebound significantly, then conditions will improve for Bitcoin to reclaim $80,000 and challenge previous highs; if the data exceeds expectations, the market will price in longer-term high interest rates again, and the first to be hit will not be cash but risk assets that have already risen continuously and have high valuations and leverage. The recent rise in crypto is mainly based on falling yields and spot funds stepping in, so as long as this logic is not broken by the data tonight, the mid-term structure can still hold; conversely, if rate expectations turn hawkish again, short-term corrections will not be limited to just a few hourly candles.
Structurally, Bitcoin's 4-hour EMA20 is near $78,200, and the price is still above it for now. The funding rate is about 0.006%, indicating that mainstream coin bulls are not severely crowded; however, daily indicators are clearly overheated, and altcoins are generally falling more than Bitcoin, showing risk appetite is cooling at the margin. BTR's contract volume far exceeds spot, open interest even surpasses its circulating market cap, and with token releases approaching, this surge may continue to squeeze shorts but is not a safe opportunity to chase the rally. It more likely reminds everyone that before the data lands, localized funds are seeking high-elasticity exits rather than the entire market entering indiscriminate gains.
From afternoon to evening, Bitcoin's main support remains at $77,500–$78,200, with resistance at $79,800–$81,300. After the data release, if the 4-hour chart can stabilize above $80,500 and break through $81,300, it means spot buying has absorbed macro volatility and the strong trend can continue; if volume breaks below $77,500 and rebounds fail to recover, the correction range may further target $75,000–$76,500. Currently, $78,700 is between support and resistance with no confirmed direction, and the least profitable move is to guess the data with high leverage in the middle of the range.
For altcoins, only ORDI remains a conditional candidate: currently about $4.15, with moderate funding rate and intact 4-hour structure. When BTC holds $77,500, watch for support at $4.00–$4.10; a renewed break above $4.30–$4.40 signals continuation, while a drop below $3.95 invalidates the candidate logic. Other surging coins are too far from support, so no chasing today.
So the question in the title already has an answer: the altcoin surge is not confirmation of a bull market, and Bitcoin has not yet completed an effective breakout above $80,000. The most important thing in the afternoon session is not to find the next double-up coin but to reserve position size for tonight's data confirmation; only if PCE is moderate and pushes BTC to hold $80,500–$81,300 will bulls truly regain the initiative, otherwise breaking below $77,500 means admitting the market needs a deeper correction first. Only two things will truly change the judgment today—the PCE result tonight and whether the price can stand outside the key range after the result is announced.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #BTC breaks through $80,000, three major tests to digest before the new threshold
BTC has once again surpassed the $80,000 integer mark. This round of upward momentum comes from a squeeze on futures shorts combined with a surge of buying during the Asian session. Over the past 72 hours, liquidations exceeded $560 million, with short stop-loss orders contributing the main gains. Unlike previous times, this breakout is accompanied by the CME Bitcoin futures basis widening to an annualized rate above 12%, indicating institutional arbitrage positions are being rebuilt, showing professional funds have divergent views on the current price rather than unanimous bullishness.
After entering a completely new range, on-chain data reveals subtle signals — the profit-loss ratio of short-term holding addresses (holding <155 days) has risen to 1.35. The selling tendency of these coins will linearly increase as the price stagnates. This week, three key time points need close attention: Wednesday's MBA mortgage application data affecting liquidity expectations, Thursday's initial jobless claims determining short-term sentiment, and Friday's core PCE, which if higher than expected, will further reduce the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September from the current 38%.
Currently, the $77,000 to $78,500 range is the lifeline bulls must defend. If the price can close and hold above $79,500 for four consecutive hours, the $80,000 level will shift from resistance to a new support platform, with upside potential reaching $83,000; conversely, if volume breaks below $77,500 and ETF funds shift from net inflows to neutral or outflows, this rally may be a false breakout, with the price at risk of retesting $74,500. $POPMART I've been watching Pop Mart for a while, and when the first-half 2026 results landed on August 20, I wanted to go beyond the headlines and actually pull apart what was driving the reaction. So I went through the earnings release, the regulatory filings on Duan Yongping's stake, and the analyst commentary that followed, and pieced together what I think is the real story here — not the panicked one-day take, but what the numbers actually say about where this company stands. Starting WithOpenAI's early Jalapeño tests point to a potentially meaningful shift in inference economics: 1.5x-1.9x more throughput per watt and 1.7x-3.6x lower end-to-end latency on open models. GPT-5.6 Sol also reportedly used 54% fewer output tokens than a leading rival on coding tasks.
The measured judgment is that efficiency gains could improve unit economics, but company-tested benchmarks are not yet proof of lower aggregate costs. With $6.7B in Q2 revenue against a $12.3B operating loss, deployment at scale and workload growth will matter more than headline performance. Not advice, just analysis.
#OpenAIInferenceCostTestJackson Hole isn't really about whether Warsh sounds hawkish or dovish. Markets need his rulebook. With inflation sticky, jobs cooling and three Fed officials already favoring a hike, investors want to know which data actually triggers action. PCE, GDP and jobs revisions will test that framework immediately. If Warsh connects the dots clearly, September odds could move fast, taking the dollar, yields, stocks and BTC with them. Clarity may matter more than tone. #WarshAtJacksonHole $BTC
Bottom is in.
We are once again trading above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price.
During bear markets, price typically spends a prolonged period below this level.
A decisive break above it has historically been an important signal that the bear market is coming to an end.
This break has now occurred.
Every retest of the STH Realized Price should be bought aggressively.xau volume increase + OI increase + price rise = new capital entering to drive, this is a real breakout, completely different in nature from BTC's "OI shrinking rise," with better quality. Short-term bullish on gold, decisive battle near 4775, bull-bear dividing line. Invalid if: closes below 4,509 → breakout falsified, returns to consolidation; breaks below 4,376 → turns bearish$DOGE is now $0.0867, down 6.42% in 24 hours, the worst performer in the market, no need for me to explain further.
Technically, the RSI is 70.9, so it's not that overbought, but the trend is the worst. Support is at 0.0848; if it breaks, look for 0.08.
A harsh truth: the Musk effect is basically dead by 2026, tweets no longer cause price spikes; the spot DOGE ETF only ended its 16-day zero inflow on 8/20, with just $650,000 coming in. Now the only narrative holding is the DOGE-1 satellite launch on 9/14.
My approach: don’t rush to catch the weakest. If 0.0848 holds, you can try a light position; if it breaks 0.08, wait for 0.075 before acting. I see the range as 0.075–0.093. I suggest everyone treat this as a sentiment play, not a core holding.
---SNDK — Phase D failed, fell back to the pivot, turning neutral. Continued decline over the next 6 trading days, gap down −6.5% on 8/24, proving that the long upper shadow on 8/17–8/18 was indeed distribution, not a healthy pullback. On 8/17, it surged to 1,827.99 then closed at 1,786.85
UT (Upthrust) — failed breakout
8/18 −9.01% long upper shadow, volume 18.65 million
Distribution confirmed
8/19–8/21 continuous decline, volume decreasing
No support rebound
8/24 gap down −6.5%, volume 14.03 million
Breakdown. The correct characterization is: the breakout on 8/13 was the first half of UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution), and the 1,827.99 on 8/17 was a failed upthrust. Currently, it has fallen to 1,480, within the HVN dense area (1,433–1,562). The decline is on decreasing volume. Selling pressure is indeed exhausting, but this only means "the fall is losing momentum," not "it will rise." Advice: do not buy here. Consider only if any of the following conditions are met:
Condition Operation
Pullback to 1,413–1,417 with volume contraction and long lower shadow
Try long, stop loss 1,340, target 1,600, 1–2x position, 20% trial position
Volume surge to reclaim 1,510 (EMA50) and hold for 2 days
Resume bullish view, enter, stop loss 1,420, target 1,696 / 1,828
Close below 1,390
Abandon long, wait until 1,163
Shorting is not recommended: fundamentals are strong (zero debt, Forward PE 6.2) + already down 19% + volume contraction, shorting has low risk-reward and may violently rebound anytime due to industry news. The ATR of 10.27% makes shorting risk asymmetric. Then it might dip a bit more, and I will exit my short position.Looking at XAU, BTC, and SNDK from the perspective of volume and price. For BTC, it's currently unclear whether it's an extension of wave 3, meaning whether the top is wave 3 or wave 5. The position at 81273. The space above opens up to 83-84. Positioning: congestion has further worsened. The large holder position ratio at 2.256 has hit a recent high, with the direction still bullish. But this is already an extreme reading. Price is making new highs while OI continues to shrink— the rise still relies on short covering, with no new long funds. This is the biggest hidden risk in this rally. If it breaks below 74000, the wave 5 structure collapses. Then there will be a test of 69. If 69 fails, it's a bearish return.#Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Walsh Clarify the Policy Path?
The boss has something to say
The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting officially opens this Thursday, and Walsh will deliver the keynote speech at 10 PM Beijing time on Friday. This is his first time speaking at this podium as the Federal Reserve Chair.
The market is waiting for three things.
First, can Walsh clearly explain his policy logic? Since taking office, he has deliberately avoided forward guidance, shortened policy statements, and been vague in two press conferences. The 30-year US Treasury yield once surged to 5.334%, with the market punishing uncertainty through yields. Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker bluntly said Walsh must directly address the inflation issue; such vague statements are no longer enough, and the market will be very disappointed.
Second, will he provide guidance on the policy path from September to December? This is still undecided. If ambiguity continues, TD Securities warns of a clear "asymmetric risk." The key is that there will be no Q&A session after the speech; the real direction might be judged from off-stage remarks by other officials during the meeting. About five Fed officials are expected to give interviews to various media on Friday.
Third, how will he reconcile the contradictions in economic data? PMI is at a four-year high while consumption is weak, sending mixed signals about the US economy. Inflation has been above 2% for five consecutive years, and employment is starting to loosen. The Fed's decision-making framework needs to connect these variables.
Tonight, the PCE data will be released first, with core PCE expected to remain at 3.3%. CME shows about a 41% chance of a rate hike in September. A PCE above expectations will further solidify the rate hike logic; below expectations will give Walsh more room for a "wait" strategy. $BTC $ETH $SOL
On the market front, Bitcoin is oscillating near 80,000, with all long positions closed waiting for a pullback. Do not heavily bet on direction before the PCE and Walsh's speech. Those holding positions should set stop losses.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.A financial report makes the AI optical bottleneck argument even harder to ignore.
$SMTC Q2:
• Revenue: $341.9 million vs. about $329 million expected
• Q3 guidance: $410 million vs. about $360 million expected
• Data center revenue: +91% year-over-year
• Next quarter data center guidance: +45% quarter-over-quarter
But these numbers are not the most interesting part.
Semtech states that demand for its FiberEdge TIA and driver products remains very strong.
These products are now designed into every module supplier in its target market—some even hold exclusive supplier status—and the company expects to exceed a 50% share in the 1.6T FiberEdge market by the end of the fiscal year.
This changes the question.
It’s no longer just:
“How much AI compute capacity will hyperscale cloud providers buy?”
But increasingly:
“Which upstream optical components can truly scale quickly to support it?”
1.6T is progressing step-by-step from certification → backlog → revenue stage.
This is where I am looking for the next bottleneck. #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 In my view, the current phase is the clearing of the chip structure and valuation recovery after all the negative news has been exhausted, and $SPCX should soon return to $150! Negative news has been exhausted, and the receivers have completed structural turnover. The market's previous decline was largely a pre-valuation of anticipated liquidity shocks. The end of selling pressure is the buying point. On the day of the lock-up and in the days following, early institutions and employees concentrated their holdings, causing short-term supply-demand imbalances. But as these low-cost tokens were fully digested by the secondary market, the toughest selling pressure barriers have been broken. Turning over and chip accumulation, with volume rebound, means extremely ample turnover. After panic and profit-taking positions exited, the main investors entering are medium- to long-term allocation funds optimistic about future developments and bottom-fishing main players. The average cost of tokens has been significantly increased, forming a highly resilient base ($130 - $135 support band). Short squeezes potential momentum, and short positions based on the logic that a crash is inevitable after unlocking will face significant closing pressure when prices fail to break further and instead rebound strongly. Once the key level is broken, short closing positions will become additional fuel pushing the price straight to $150! Core business data continues to exceed expectations, supporting valuation reshaping The unlock-up suppresses only short-term liquidity, not long-term value. The core business logic behind the SPCX underlying has not been damaged in any way and is accelerating. Starlink's cash flow has entered a period of explosive growth, and with steady growth in global user base and enterprise/aviation/maritime orders, cash flow and net profit are being released at an accelerated pace, providing a solid foundation for valuation#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
I've been taking a deeper look at ZEC these days, so I'll just follow my own thoughts.
Now that traditional funds have a legal and compliant way to enter ZEC, no wonder it has surged so sharply these days—$14.8 million, a number worth noting.
I'm increasingly convinced that the real story of ZEC isn't how much it has risen in the short term, but that it is following a path very similar to Bitcoin's early days.
Bitcoin initially solved peer-to-peer transfers, then gradually became digital gold, serving as store of value, cross-border transfers, asset allocation, and more. But as on-chain analysis and AI get stronger, BTC's capital flows are becoming increasingly transparent.
In the past, people used BTC to solve "how to transfer"; in the future, more people may need to solve "after transferring, they don't want all the details to be visible."
This is where ZEC's opportunity lies.
With a total supply of 21 million and a PoW mechanism, in a sense it is the "privacy version of $BTC." More importantly, ZEC has now entered traditional financial markets through a spot ETF, and Wall Street is opening a compliant gateway for privacy assets.
So what I truly focus on is not the $14.8 million trading volume, but that ZEC is walking the path BTC once took—only this time, it is betting on "privacy."What really matters in this round of Bitcoin's movement is not how much it rose from over $60,000, but rather that after reaching the long-term psychological threshold of $80,000, it was not immediately crushed by selling pressure as in the past. Yesterday, the intraday high once approached $81,200, and although it pulled back somewhat, the price mostly stayed steadily between $78,000 and $80,000. This kind of "holding at the high" is often more worth pondering than a one-sided rally. Over the past week, Bitcoin's cumulative gain exceeded 20%. Logically, the market should have seen a decent profit-taking long ago. But the reality is that the pullback is quite restrained, and there is always support below. This shows that current buying is not just short-term speculators, but rather more sustained funds gradually building positions. What truly supports this judgment is the continued warming of liquidity—the US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows for several consecutive days, with about $338 million in single-day inflows on August 24 alone, and nearly $1.9 billion cumulative net inflows over the previous week. Such a large volume of institutional funds continues to enter the market, providing a solid foundation for the price to hold steady at high levels. The $80,000 threshold is crucial because it is both a psychological round number and a dense trading zone where multiple past rebounds have failed. Generally, when a resistance level is repeatedly tested but never effectively broken, it often means selling strength is waning. Bitcoin's repeated tug-of-war near $80,000 in recent days is essentially a real turnover between bulls and bears in this area. As long as the price does not quickly break below this level,#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%
Many people think Nvidia is just cashing in again. On the contrary, I believe this price hike actually reveals who the real winners in the AI industry chain are.
Bloomberg reported that Nvidia has notified key customers like Microsoft and Google that flagship AI servers such as Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell, shipping in early 2027, will see a price increase of over 15% across the board.
On the surface, it looks like Nvidia is raising prices, but it is actually a passive move. The core driver of the price hike is the soaring cost of memory chips.
In next-generation high-end AI servers, the cost share of HBM plus DRAM has surged to 25%-35%, whereas it was less than 10% before. The unit cost of HBM has skyrocketed by 435%, and production capacity is tightly controlled by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Capacity through 2027 is basically locked in, so prices can be raised at will. Even Nvidia, with a 75% gross margin, cannot withstand this cost increase and has to pass it downstream.
The industry chain logic is clear: the closer to upstream core capacity, the stronger the bargaining power. Memory manufacturers are earning windfall profits from price hikes, OEM server manufacturers can only earn processing fees by passing costs along, and downstream cloud providers are squeezed from both ends—hardware costs rise while service prices remain competitive.
The same applies to investment: I prefer to focus on upstream memory leaders like SK Hynix rather than downstream server manufacturers. AI money ultimately settles in the bottleneck capacity segment, while downstream players only get revenue scale without profit elasticity.
Which part of the AI industry chain do you think is more promising? Seeing last week's Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF assets surge by $23 billion, do you think institutions are frantically buying?
The reality might not involve that much new capital entering the market.
According to the latest data reported by Decrypt, out of this $23 billion AUM (Assets Under Management) increase, only $2.6 billion is actual "new money" inflow.
So where did the remaining $20+ billion come from? It's all due to the underlying coin price appreciation and the liquidation of short positions.
During $BTC's breakout past key resistance levels, about $4 billion worth of short positions were forcibly liquidated within two days. This short-squeeze-induced "stampede buyback" became the strongest fuel driving the price surge.
Therefore, this rally is essentially a "revaluation of existing holdings + leverage liquidations," rather than a systemic inflow of genuine external incremental funds.
Looking at a longer timeframe, year-to-date, these two major ETFs still show a net outflow deficit of about $3.1 billion.
The single-day biggest capital inflow still comes from BlackRock's IBIT, with the oligopoly's bloodletting effect intensifying.
Relying on short-squeeze liquidations can indeed create short-term hype, but for the market to truly stabilize and kick off a raging bull run, we must see sustained volume-driven net buying in the spot channels.