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#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
"Who should you bet on now?" — Combining the latest market data and institutional outlooks, the positioning of Bitcoin and Ethereum is clearly distinct: the former is the "ballast stone," the latter the "spring."
📌 Summary in one sentence
· Bitcoin ($BTC): More certain, suitable as a strategic base holding, resilient in trend, with controllable volatility.
· Ethereum ($ETH): More explosive, if market sentiment warms, its growth elasticity usually significantly outperforms the broader market.
📈 Why do institutions favor ETH's explosive potential?
Recent capital flows have revealed clues (ETH ETF net inflow nearly $700 million in a single week), with the underlying logic being:
· Ethereum holds an absolute share in stablecoin circulation, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), and the DeFi ecosystem;
· No hidden pressure from continuous miner sell-offs;
· Institutions like Standard Chartered and Fundstrat view 2026 as the "year of ETH's comeback," and once the ETH/BTC exchange rate hits the historical high of 0.06 again, ETH's excess returns relative to BTC will be very significant.
Key price reference: BTC needs to hold above $78,000 short-term and break through the $83,000 resistance; if successful, it could target the $90,000 level.
⚠️ Negative factors that cannot be ignored
· The macro environment is not fully cleared; some strategists warn BTC may retest $60,000–$65,000 in the first half of 2026, with ETH simultaneously dipping to the $1,800–$2,000 range (Citigroup's target price is more conservative).
· The actual activation effect of Ethereum's next upgrade is uncertain; if on-chain activity falls short of expectations, ETH's decline is often more severe than BTC's.
🎯 Your action framework
· Conservative investors choose BTC: tolerate lower psychological volatility, exchanging time for certainty and compound returns.
· Aggressive investors choose ETH: must tolerate 10%–20% short-term drawdowns to seek excess returns from exchange rate recovery.
Ultimately, this is not about "which is better," but "whether you care more about sleeping soundly or looking further ahead."
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Yushi Technology has fallen about 45% from its peak, but the selloff alone doesn't make it a bargain. It debuted at 1,100 yuan after an IPO price of 150.8 yuan, then closed its first day at 845 yuan. By August 25, its market cap had dropped to 243.8 billion yuan, with the stock around 602.8 yuan. Even after the correction, that's still roughly 4x the issue price. The lesson is simple: heavy retail interest and sentiment can push valuations far beyond fundamentals. CORE Panorama Overview｜Institutional Talks + SatPay Warm-up, Objective Review under BTCFi Competition
⚠️ Only public information compiled, not investment advice
Market style shifts toward "yield-bearing assets," BTCFi is under renewed scrutiny. CORE, as a non-custodial BTC staking L1, can be analyzed through several recent threads:
1. Institutional side: North America roadshow ongoing, but no "official announcement"
The team is connecting with family offices, custody/asset management institutions in Los Angeles and other places, mainly promoting lstBTC non-custodial time-locked staking (BTC custody rights not transferred). This indeed aligns with institutional compliance demands, but currently still in due diligence/solution demonstration phase, no announced partnerships, no on-chain institutional staking incremental data, business cycle counted in months, don’t mistake "in talks" for "implemented."
2. SatPay: More warm-up than commercial use
Positioned as BTC staking + debit card spending + yield generation, the waitlist is growing. But as of August 2026, it is in Beta/waitlist internal testing, no global public beta, no compliant payment license, no real merchant transaction flow. If public beta opens in the second half of the year, that will be the real catalyst for retail users.
3. Ecosystem fundamentals: DeFi supports, others weak
Staking: BTC non-custodial staking + CORE dual staking mechanism running, but BTC staking growth is slowing, pure DeFi TVL only in the millions of USD range (including staked BTC market cap is only promoted as "over 1 billion").
Products: Colend (lending), Molten (DEX), lstBTC/LST reuse are core; NFT/RWA/GameFi have no breakout hits.
After Hermes upgrade, infrastructure framework is stable, but lacks developers and breakout applications.
4. Rumor analysis: Did OKX abandon CORE?
No solid evidence. OKX’s own X Layer ≠ clearing out CORE, currently CORE spot, Web3 wallet chain support, and validator nodes remain. Real warning signals are only three: ① removal of on-chain staking entry ② liquidity cliff in trading pairs ③ official cessation of all ecosystem interactions. None triggered yet, it’s "normal support level," not "abandonment."
5. Market and rhythm
Long-range oscillation, chips washing speculative positions, price movement tied to BTC market. Fed hawkish bias + high interest rates suppress altcoin inflows. Institutions shifting from pure BTC store-of-value to yield-bearing assets (like ETH staking ETFs) is the background, CORE narrative fits, but expectations → price rise need solid proof (institutional staking volume/SatPay public beta/buyback revenue) to ignite, otherwise continue grinding.
Tracking 5 hard indicators:
① Whether North America officially announces custody/asset management cooperation
② New institutional staking BTC volume on lstBTC
③ SatPay public beta timing and user count
④ OKX staking entry and liquidity anomalies
⑤ BTC market direction
Summary: Non-custodial BTC staking has differentiators, institutional path is clear; but slow implementation, SatPay not commercial, TVL small, token unlock pressure high. Short-term don’t heavily bet on news, wait for volume breakout; long-term spare funds in batches, prepare for oscillation and bottoming.
Which do you favor for CORE to realize first: lstBTC institutional funds or SatPay C-end breakout? 👇 The Robinhood concept ecosystem token PONS briefly surpassed the $80 million market cap mark, setting a new all-time high. The core driver behind its price surge, besides the Robinhood concept's inherent retail traffic bonus, lies in its extreme tokenomics design: 28.52% of the total supply has been burned, and the protocol treasury continuously uses 80% of the fee revenue for buybacks and accumulation.
This aggressive strategy of allocating the vast majority of protocol income to secondary buybacks has demonstrated an astonishing capital-attracting effect in the current market of stock competition.
Traditional tokens are often rejected by the secondary market due to massive unlocks and inefficient utility, but PONS has built a classic deflationary flywheel in a short cycle by burning nearly 30% of the circulating supply at once and backing it with 80% of fee revenue in real buybacks. The larger the trading volume, the higher the treasury income, the stronger the buy-side support, which in turn stimulates the token price to continuously break new highs.
However, investors must soberly recognize the reflexivity risk behind the buyback flywheel. The lifeline of high buybacks is entirely tied to sustained protocol activity and high-frequency trading. Once market enthusiasm fades and fee-generating capacity declines, buyback demand will quickly shrink. Without deep intrinsic value support, the positive feedback during the uptrend can easily reverse into a severe liquidity pullback.
While enjoying momentum dividends, closely monitoring the retention curve of actual protocol fees is the rational stance to see through the bubble.
Do you think the deflationary model with 80% income buybacks is a long-term sustainable revenue-generating token, or a short-term fund scheme highly dependent on sentiment heat?August 26 $ZEC Trend Analysis: "Good News Priced In" on ETF Listing Day, Direction Decision After Losing the $800 Level
On August 26, Zcash (ZEC) experienced a classic "good news priced in followed by a pullback" scenario. At the time of writing, ZEC is trading around $784-787, down approximately 7.6%-7.8% in 24 hours. In the previous week, ZEC surged from below $600 to an eight-year high of $880, with a weekly gain of up to 56%. The Grayscale Zcash Spot ETF (ZCSH) officially launched yesterday on the NYSE Arca, recording a first-day trading volume of $14.8 million, rising over 3.5% intraday before closing down 1.54%. The trust holds about 393,000 ZEC, valued at over $260 million.
ETF Listing = "Good News Fully Priced In"
In the days leading up to the ETF listing, ZEC soared from below $600 to above $880. The market compared it to Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap and PoW mechanism, fueling the "next Bitcoin" narrative. During this period, ZEC perpetual contract open interest nearly doubled to $1.8 billion, with leveraged funds accelerating both the rise and the subsequent decline. Steve Vanourny, head of Grayscale’s index business, stated that Zcash has nearly a decade of network history, a fixed supply cap of 21 million, and a PoW mechanism, plus optional privacy features that Bitcoin lacks. The company positions ZCSH as a high-risk satellite allocation within a digital asset portfolio.
Technical Analysis: Overbought Correction Continues
Although the price remains above the EMA50 at $713.2 and EMA200 at $576.54, the MACD has formed a death cross, and the RSI has fallen to a neutral 64.15. The lower Bollinger Band support at $781.28 has been tested; if broken decisively, the next key support is at $713 (50-day EMA). Resistance lies in the $870-$903 range, and reclaiming $800 is the first prerequisite for a short-term rebound.
Whale Activity: Short Position on ZEC with Unrealized Losses Over $10 Million
According to TradingBeats monitoring, a "BTC OG insider whale" is shorting 32,800 ZEC at 2x full position leverage, with a position value of about $25.699 million and an average entry price of only $444. The current unrealized loss is $11.154 million, a return of about -153.4%. Meanwhile, the same whale is long 1,868.3 BTC at 3x leverage, with an average entry price of $77,089.9, showing an unrealized profit of about $3.681 million. The ZEC unrealized loss has expanded to roughly three times the BTC unrealized gain, with the combined positions still at a net loss of $7.473 million. Additionally, another whale is shorting 44,386 ZEC at 5x leverage, with an unrealized loss of $6.75 million and a liquidation price of $812.3—meaning if ZEC rebounds above $812, shorts will face further liquidation pressure.
Summary
Today’s ZEC pullback is a typical "good news fully priced in" combined with an overbought correction—the explosive rally in the week before the ETF listing was fully priced in. The doubling of open interest to $1.8 billion indicates heavy leverage accumulation, and once the good news materialized, profit-taking and leveraged liquidations created a negative feedback loop. In the broader market, Bitcoin fell 2% to $78,900, and most major altcoins closed lower on the day.
The fate of the $800 level will determine the short-term direction—if reclaimed with continued ETF inflows, the pullback may be a healthy correction within a bull market; if the $781 Bollinger lower band is lost, $713 will be the next critical test. Investors are advised to strictly control position sizes and avoid chasing rallies or panicking with high leverage.$ZEC's recent pullback is quite harsh, but my strategy is still running.
ZEC dropped from around 880 all the way down to 751, a retracement of nearly 15%.
Why such a sharp drop?
This rally was originally driven by the news of the Zcash spot ETF listing, surging over 60% in a week, but the main push came from leveraged futures, with 24-hour futures volume hitting 9.5 billion, while spot volume was only 1 billion. After the ETF listing, the positive news was realized, and profit-taking began. Moreover, open interest in futures doubled to 1.8 billion, and when leverage is being shaken out, the drop can be fierce.
The technicals aren't great either. MACD has already shown a high-level divergence; prices hit new highs but momentum is lagging.
What’s next?
If it can hold support around 750, it might stabilize. If not, the next key level is around 716-720.
My long strategy isn't over yet, but I've used up all my add-on positions, so now I can only wait. Accept losses when they happen, and count profits as experience.
#玩转策略
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 The full set of US PCE data for the evening has been released, overall exceeding expectations and showing strength!
Core PCE inflation remains flat without declining, and both personal consumption and durable goods orders are higher than expected.
In short, the US economy still shows resilience, inflation has not cooled further, and the market's hope for a quick rate cut has been directly dampened.
This is negative news for gold; it is difficult for it to rally sharply in the short term and will likely face pressure and fluctuate. Avoid blindly chasing longs.
For $BTC and $ETH, there is no major positive news; rate cut expectations are delayed, making it hard for the market to explode directly, and it remains a volatile consolidation pattern with back-and-forth fluctuations.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #It will become clear after tomorrow's meeting. It did not exceed expectations. The US CPI data brought good news in July: core CPI dropped to a relatively moderate 2.5%. However, the PCE inflation rate weights different spending categories differently, so its performance has consistently been noticeably stronger. Currently, there is still much uncertainty about how Waller views the inflation challenge he has taken on. He has not included his economic forecasts in the quarterly released "dot plot," which summarizes Federal Reserve officials' projections for the economy and interest rates; at the same time, he has not indicated whether he might support rate hikes in the upcoming meetings, a question that has already caused divisions among Fed officials. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The moment I started taking $BCH seriously was seeing how directly its infrastructure prioritizes peer-to-peer payments. Larger block capacity supports more transaction throughput, while the network keeps permissionless access, transparent verification, and relatively simple settlement. Most protocols usually deliver only one or two of these
#IranSanctionsAndTalks #IranSanctionsAndTalks #BTC80KHoldOrFold #US Core PCE flat from last month, how will Powell's Jackson Hole speech set the tone?
July Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, exactly the same as June, but month-over-month rose from 0.1% to 0.2%. The overall PCE looks worse, year-over-year at 3.7% exceeds expectations, month-over-month is 0.2%, last month was -0.1%.
Inflation stuck above 3% and not coming down, this is the reality Powell faces.
The day after tomorrow, Friday at 10 PM, Powell will deliver his keynote speech at Jackson Hole for the first time. The market is guessing how he will set the tone. This PCE data essentially sets the tone for him in advance—there's no room to be dovish, inflation is still sticky. The probability of a rate cut in September is likely to be pushed down.
For BTC and ETH, short-term pressure is significant. The dollar is strengthening, US Treasury yields are rising, risk assets get hit first. BTC was already in a consolidation phase; the data plus the annual meeting double whammy means short-term further testing is expected. ETH is weaker; if BTC can't hold, ETH will only suffer more.
But don't be overly pessimistic. Core year-over-year unchanged is not a bombshell, real consumer spending month-over-month is flat, people's purchasing power is declining, the economy isn't that strong. Rate cuts are only delayed, not canceled.
Don't chase longs these days; wait for Powell's speech to settle. Hold BTC if support holds; if broken, wait for lower levels. Don't stubbornly hold ETH in weakness.
What do you think, will Powell be hawkish or dovish?
$BTC, $ETH US July inflation remains sticky; Q2 GDP growth rate holds steady at 1.5%
On August 26, US July inflation unexpectedly remained unchanged, marking the 65th consecutive month significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Due to the impact of the Iran war, the recent decline in inflation after reaching a high level has stalled, which may intensify internal Fed debates over whether to raise interest rates or keep them unchanged. Data released Wednesday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the Fed's preferred gauge, the US July PCE price index annual rate, at 3.7%, unchanged from June, with analysts expecting 3.6%. As trade talks between the US and its second-largest trading partner Canada broke down on Friday, a new round of tariff-driven inflationary pressure may be imminent. On a month-over-month basis, the PCE price index rose 0.2% in July, also exceeding economists' expectations. In June, the index had declined 0.1% month-over-month, the lowest level since April 2020. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also updated Q2 economic growth data, keeping the US Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate steady at 1.5%. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #US Core PCE flat from last month, how will the Jackson Hole speech by Waller set the tone?
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Core PCE year-on-year at 3.29%, month-on-month at 0.25%, basically flat from last month, neither opening the door for rate cuts nor forcing rate hikes—typical "dull knife" data. The crypto market breathes a short-term sigh of relief but remains uncertain mid-term.
Waller's Jackson Hole debut on the 28th, my judgment on the tone is one sentence: inflation is not dead, rate hike options remain, no forward guidance. He won't say whether there will be a rate hike in September but will lay out the reaction function of "tightening if it goes higher," casually mentioning stablecoins and payment innovation (this year's theme), which is a neutral to slightly bearish signal for BTC, not bullish.
Mid-term view: sticky PCE + Waller's hawkish options = high real interest rates holding back liquidity, making it difficult for $BTC to start a major rally, most likely range-bound with a bias toward the lower end seeking support. ETF inflows will be suppressed by rate hike expectations.
In terms of trading, don't take "PCE flat" as a reversal signal. Wait for Waller's speech and see how the 2-year Treasury and the dollar index move. If bond yields don't fall, don't chase crypto.
$ETH
$SOL $SNDK SanDisk (SNDK) stock price continues its recent weakness, with a slight decline in pre-market trading. After a significant drop from its historical high, the market is currently digesting multiple pressures from industry competition and macroeconomic factors.
Current Market Snapshot
· Recent Trend: Closed at $1,480.77 yesterday (25th), down 0.83%, and further dropped to around $1,453 in pre-market trading. The stock price has fallen about 37%-38% from the historical high of $2,354.
· Sector Correlation: Storage chip stocks are generally under pressure in pre-market trading, with SK Hynix, Micron, Western Digital, and others all slightly down, reflecting an industry-wide correction.
Triple Pressure Behind the Decline
This round of decline is not due to a collapse in the company's fundamentals but a short-term convergence of multiple negative factors:
· Changing Competitive Landscape: Market rumors suggest Washington may allow Apple to source storage chips from Chinese suppliers (Changxin Memory, Yangtze Memory Technologies), directly threatening SanDisk's pricing power, which was the main reason for the stock's intraday drop of over 9% yesterday.
· Cooling AI Boom: After a surge of over 700% this year, the AI infrastructure sector is facing profit-taking and valuation reassessment pressures, causing capital divergence at high levels.
· Long-term Competition Concerns: Samsung's capital return plan has raised market worries, while there are concerns that Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) might dominate the NAND market by 2027, potentially causing supply shocks with its IPO.SNDK at $1450, have you been shaken out?
First, look at the surface: a spike followed by a pullback, retail investors panic and shout "double top."
On August 5, the earnings report exceeded expectations across the board, the stock violently rebounded to 1828, then continuously fell back to 1416, a retracement of over 22%. The candlestick tells you: 1416 is the low on August 24, 1400-1450 is the decision box, the 20-day moving average at 1380-1410 just hits the lower edge, the direction is about to be chosen, don’t pick the wrong side.
First thing: the earnings report was explosive, but the stock didn’t rise—because it was "good but not crazy enough."
Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, gross margin 84.6%, EPS $39.25, all exceeding expectations. But Q1 guidance of $10.3-10.8 billion, the most optimistic in the market expected above $10.8 billion, just a little short, so valuation was directly cut after hours.
Sound familiar? The same script was played by NVIDIA, AMD, and now it’s SNDK’s turn.
Second thing: the business model has changed, but you’re still looking at it with old eyes.
The old Sandisk was a cyclical NAND flash stock—profiting when prices rose, losing when prices fell. What is Sandisk now?
An AI inference storage supplier. Years of floor price long-term contracts + prepayments + 93.9 billion guaranteed minimum revenue, gross margin locked above 80% targeting FY28-FY30, excess cash fully returned to shareholders.
Used to live off spot prices, now locked-in profits from long-term contracts.
Used to be a cyclical stock, now a growth stock.
Used to have a PE of 10x, now 30x is considered cheap.
The market is still pricing it by "memory cycles," but its business model has become an "AI infrastructure landlord."
Third thing: the technical side has reached a critical point that must be taken seriously.
1416 is the low on August 24, 1400 is a psychological level + 20-day moving average support. If it holds, a double bottom structure is established, rebound targets 1500-1570-1600. If it breaks, next stops are 1330-1350, even 1200.
From the June ATH of 2354 to late July 1200, a 50% drop; then a rebound to 1828 (covering 61.8%), then a fall back to 1400+. This is a textbook "bear market rally followed by a second bottom" structure.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Q4 revenue surged 372%, gross margin 84.6%, historic-level data
93.9 billion guaranteed minimum revenue contracts, most locked for FY27/FY28
60 billion+ buybacks, remaining 155 billion authorized, no debt + net cash
Analyst target prices 2000-2250, 40-55% upside from current
1400-1416 is 20-day moving average + psychological level, strong technical support
On the other side:
Guidance slightly below the most optimistic expectations, two consecutive quarters of "good but not good enough"
Already below 50-day moving average, short-term bearish structure
NVDA earnings + PCE + Jackson Hole triple bombshells concentrated from today to Friday
If 1400 doesn’t hold, next stops 1330, then 1200
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Light long positions at 1416-1450, stop loss below 1380, target 1500-1570. If rebound to 1500-1550 fails to break through, short for a target of 1420-1400.
Swing traders:
Wait for direction confirmation. Go long above 1500, target 1570-1600, breakout looks to 1680+. Short below 1400, target 1330-1350.
Long-term believers:
Build positions gradually below 1400, logic is AI storage long contracts + business model upgrade. Targets: above 1600 aiming for 1800+, by 2027 aiming for 2000-2250. But note—August 26-29 (NVDA earnings + PCE + Jackson Hole) will see extreme volatility, recommend reducing positions and observing, add back after the storm passes.
Mid-term stands on the AI storage long contract side, but 1450 looks more like a "rebound continuation or second bottom" dividing line, not a "cheap enough to go all in" level.
The August 5 earnings made the market believe SNDK is not a cyclical stock, but the August 17-24 pullback made the market doubt again. If 1416 holds, it’s a golden pit; if not, it’s the start of a deeper correction.
SNDK now is like NVIDIA in May 2023—
Earnings exploded but guidance "slightly below the most optimistic expectations," killed after hours, then...
Do you remember what happened next?
You fear the pullback, institutions fear missing out.
What is your SNDK cost basis?
Do you think 1416 will hold?
$BTC $SNDK $NVDA Is the pullback after BTC's surge a risk release or the end of the trend?
The crypto market pulled back 0.79% in the past 24 hours, with total market capitalization retreating to $2.64 trillion.
However, I believe this decline is more like a normal cooldown after a rise, rather than a signal of trend reversal.
The reason is simple: this rally was too fast.
In the past week, the total crypto market cap rose 19.71%, BTC increased 21.9%, and ETH rose 28.32%. Such a sharp surge in a short time pushed the market into an extreme greed state, with the Fear & Greed Index reaching 80 and RSI peaking at 87.68.
Under these circumstances, it is normal for some short-term funds to take profits.
What’s more noteworthy is that leverage is decreasing.
In the past 24 hours, open interest in contracts dropped 5.67%, indicating the market is actively reducing risk rather than experiencing panic selling.
At the same time, the US spot BTC ETF still maintains net inflows, with $314 million flowing in on August 25 alone, showing that institutional demand has not disappeared but is digesting previous gains.
So the real question now is not:
"Has the market peaked?"
But rather:
"Can the post-rally chip exchange be completed?"
Next, focus on support around the $2.54 trillion market cap.
If this level holds, it indicates the market is just undergoing healthy consolidation and the bullish structure remains intact; if it breaks, it may further test the $2.47 trillion area.
Currently, I lean more toward the former.
$BTC The "Arithmetic Truth" Behind a $44.7 Million Loss: Avalanche Treasury AVAT Buys Back $10 Million — Is It a Rescue or a Secret Bottom Fishing? Just under three months after ringing the bell on Nasdaq, AVAT (Avalanche Treasury Company), the official "treasury leader" of the Avalanche ecosystem, has delivered a rather shocking Q2 financial report: a net loss of $44.7 million, with a loss of $1.54 per share. However, at the same time the news was released, the board directly approved a $10 million stock buyback plan. On one hand, there is a massive paper loss of tens of millions of dollars; on the other, a real cash buyback of its own shares. Breaking down this ledger reveals that this so-called "negative earnings" is essentially an inevitable pain under US GAAP financial standards for crypto treasury models. Underlying Breakdown of the Paper Loss: What Exactly Was Lost? Carefully dissecting the $44.7 million net loss structure reveals a large amount of non-recurring and non-cash accounting impairments: $35.7 million unrealized loss and impairment (80%): from the fair value fluctuations of the company's core asset — 15.3 million AVAX tokens. As long as the coin price retraces during the reporting period, accounting standards require it to be recorded as an impairment. This is purely a paper unrealized loss; not a single token was sold. $15.2 million one-time listing expenses: paid to complete the business merger and Nasdaq listing on June 11,The market continued to decline, with BTC and ETH falling all the way, and most coins followed the overall decline, creating a panic atmosphere across the market. An unusual scene played out again: BICO bucked the trend, rising more than 20 points, and CORE held its slight gains, creating an independent rally. The OKX Planet brothers were instantly in a frenzy. Many people were ignited by this strong market trend: the market fell but it still surged—this is the true leader! Now is the perfect opportunity to get on board and seize the chance to break through the main rally against the trend. Both are contrarian coins, but the underlying logic of the two coins is completely different. $BICO There are real business projects in the sector, and on-chain business transactions can be verified. This round, hot funds in the sector are grouping for short-term promotion, with a 20%+ big bullish candle, which is concentrated by existing speculative capital. However, the systemic risk of the market remains unresolved, and after a sharp surge, sharp pullbacks can occur. Short-term profits come and disappear just as fast. In contrast, $CORE only follows the rise slightly. Small market cap chips are highly concentrated, and a small amount of capital can pull bullish candlesticks, with no real ecosystem business returns realized. They only take advantage of market panic and short-term funds playing the $BTC Fi narrative to create a strong illusion. The most confusing market rally happens when the market crashes against the trend. Under panic, people's judgment easily fails, misinterpreting short-term capital speculation as a complete fundamental reversal. Once speculative money and dog dealers take profits and exit, the more dazzling the earlier rally is the more terrifying the damage when it falls. Did the OKX Planet brothers buck the trend and decisively pocket some of their positions, or were they slashed by the surge?Overall PCE exceeded expectations, core PCE met expectations; market impact is slightly bearish but limited in strength.
July overall PCE year-over-year was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, indicating that inflation is not easing smoothly, which may suppress rate cut expectations in the short term. The US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened, putting pressure on risk assets like BTC and ETH.
However, core PCE year-over-year was 3.3%, in line with expectations and unchanged from last month, indicating that core inflation has not further worsened. Therefore, it does not currently constitute a strong bearish factor, and the market is more likely to consolidate and digest this.
Short-term focus:
* $BTC: Weak below 79,000, looking at 78,000-77,000; if it regains and holds above 79,000, then focus on 80,000-81,000.
* $ETH: Key focus around 2,450, with bullish and bearish logic similar to BTC.
Conclusion: Overall slightly bearish but not strongly bearish; mainstream coins are expected to maintain consolidation in the short term. Keep position size within 30%, apply strict stop-loss, and continue to monitor policy signals from the Jackson Hole meeting.
The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $SOL $ETH Ethereum (ETH) is currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a strong rally, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting around the $2,500 mark.
Current Market Overview
· Real-time price: approximately in the $2,440 - $2,460 range, with a slight 24-hour decline of about 0.7%-1.6%. Intraday briefly dipped below $2,500, hitting a low near $2,414.
· Performance review: The past week's gains remain high at 21%-29%, recently rebounding strongly from a low around $1,870, with the medium-term bullish structure still intact.
🔍 Focus of Bull-Bear Contest
· Short-term overheating needs digestion: Technical indicators show short-term momentum has weakened. RSI entered the 75-80 overbought zone, and the 4-hour MACD showed a "death cross" signal, indicating a possible short-term pullback to support before gathering strength to push higher.
· Key price levels: The $2,500-$2,550 range above is a strong recent resistance zone; the $2,420-$2,450 range below is the current consolidation area, and $2,350-$2,400 is the medium-term bullish defense line.
· News: Institutional buying rumors: On-chain data shows that the BitMine wallet associated with Tom Lee withdrew 20,000 ETH (about $48.9 million) from Kraken, which the market interprets as a signal of institutional accumulation.PCE exceeds expectations + CFTC makes a statement, the market is waiting for an answer tonight
July PCE data just released: year-on-year 3.7%, core PCE year-on-year 3.3%, month-on-month 0.2%, exceeding expectations. Inflation cooling has stalled, and September rate hike expectations are heating up again. Tomorrow the Jackson Hole symposium opens, Warsh's first speech since taking office, the market is waiting for his guidance on interest rates.
Regulators are not idle either.
CFTC Chairman Selig clearly stated: if the CLARITY Act does not pass before September, the CFTC will establish its own crypto trading framework. The SEC has already taken the lead by proposing exemptions for certain digital asset issuances from securities registration. The message is clear — if Congress does not legislate, regulators will act themselves, and the direction toward clearer rules will not change.
This is a long-term positive for crypto, but short-term volatility will only increase. PCE exceeding expectations means the Fed could be more hawkish; if Warsh's speech on Friday leans dovish, the 80,000 level will be broken directly; if hawkish, a pullback to 75,000 is not surprising.
Today BTC is consolidating near 80,000, not directionless but waiting for a signal. Open interest at 55.7 billion hits a high, both longs and shorts are adding positions. Once Warsh speaks, a one-sided market move will be intense.
Do you think Warsh will lean dovish or hawkish? Place your bets in the comments. Follow the Jackson Hole live tomorrow to stay on track.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC #PCE #JacksonHole #CryptoRegulation #MarketAnalysis
The above is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.August 26 $ETH Trend Analysis: Rejected at $2,535, Retraces to $2,450, PCE Data as the Key Breakthrough
On August 26, Ethereum continued its "rally and pullback" pattern. Yesterday, ETH once touched the high range of $2,530-$2,545 but faced a clear rejection. During the Asian session today, it dipped to around $2,413, then oscillated and recovered within the $2,440-$2,465 range. At the time of writing, ETH is trading around $2,465, down about 1.6% from yesterday's open. Despite intraday pressure, ETH’s rebound structure from mid-August at $1,870-$1,920 remains intact, with a monthly gain exceeding 31%.
Technically, ETH is facing a "$2,500 battle". The $2,500 level is the most important psychological threshold currently—serving as both a support and resistance pivot and a key level tested multiple times recently. The RSI(14) remains in the overbought zone between 75-80, indicating obvious short-term pullback or consolidation pressure; although the MACD is still showing a bullish crossover with upward divergence and dominant bullish momentum, the histogram expansion rate has slowed. The price stands above the 50/100/200-day moving averages forming a bullish alignment, but the $2,530-$2,550 range has become a short-term "ceiling"—after reaching this area yesterday, it quickly retreated.
The good news is that institutional funds continue to flow in. The US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $180 million yesterday, marking the seventh consecutive trading day of net inflows. Among them, BlackRock’s ETHA contributed $146.4 million, accounting for 81.3% of total inflows; Fidelity’s FETH saw inflows of about $25.75 million. Over the past 7 days, Ethereum ETFs have accumulated net inflows of approximately $1 billion. Notably, Ethereum ETF inflows amount to 57.2% of Bitcoin ETF inflows, while Ethereum’s market cap only accounts for 18.8% of the total crypto market cap—indicating ETF capital allocation preference for ETH is significantly higher than its market cap weighting.
On the macro front, a "major test" is approaching. At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US July PCE inflation data will be released. Market consensus expects the core PCE annual growth rate to slow from 3.3% to 3.2%, but July’s core PPI surged 0.4% month-over-month (four times June’s pace), implying a risk that core PCE may exceed expectations tonight. The second estimate of Q2 GDP will also be released simultaneously. If the PCE data is hawkish, it may weaken last week’s "devaluation trade" logic triggered by US Treasury repo, and ETH, as a high-beta asset, could see a decline significantly exceeding BTC.
Key levels: Resistance is at $2,500-$2,550 (recent highs + psychological threshold); a valid breakout could open the $2,600-$2,800 range. Support lies first at $2,420-$2,450 (current consolidation zone), with stronger support at $2,350-$2,400. If it breaks below $2,350 and accelerates downward, the bullish structure needs to be reassessed.
Risk warning: ETH has rebounded from $1,870 to $2,545 in this round, with a short-term gain exceeding 36%, indicating significant overbought pressure. If the perpetual contract funding rate is high, it may intensify short-term pullback pressure. Investors are advised to strictly control positions, avoid chasing gains with high leverage, closely monitor the $2,500 resistance and $2,420 support levels, and wait for tonight’s PCE data release before making trend decisions. July PCE exceeds expectations! The probability of a rate hike in September has risen from about 36% to 42%
The just-released US July PCE data showed a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with core PCE up 3.3% year-on-year, both higher than the market's previous optimistic expectations.
This set of data once again indicates that US inflation is stickier than many thought, and seeing a rapid and significant cooling is not easy. The difficulty of the Federal Reserve shifting to easing in the short term has increased, and the logic of maintaining high interest rates for longer has been further reinforced.
Risk assets will face short-term pressure, especially tech stocks and crypto that have risen a lot before, which are prone to profit-taking. If subsequent data still does not come down, discussions about a rate hike in September will become more serious.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 August 26 $BTC Trend Analysis: Rejected at $81,000, Retraces to $79,000, PCE Data as the Key Breakthrough
On August 26, Bitcoin experienced a "rally and pullback" movement. Yesterday, BTC once reached $81,237, a new high since mid-May, but after a clear rejection near the 50-week moving average (around $81,085), it sharply fell back. During the Asian session today, the low touched $77,808, then oscillated and recovered within the $78,500-$79,000 range. At the time of writing, BTC is around $78,800, down about 1.27% in 24 hours.
The essence of this rally and pullback is a natural correction after a "short squeeze". On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced raising the single long-term Treasury repo limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, quickly triggering market bets on "currency depreciation trades," causing BTC to surge nearly 28% in 8 days. However, this rise was mainly driven by forced short covering—between August 19 and 20, over $3 billion in leveraged short positions in crypto derivatives were liquidated, with shorts accounting for 92%. Forced buying can rapidly push prices up, but each liquidation buy order only closes existing positions rather than establishing sustained demand. Spot demand is the key to whether the trend can continue.
The good news is institutional funds continue to flow in. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $314 million yesterday, marking the 7th consecutive trading day of net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $284 million, accounting for 90% of total inflows. Year-to-date in August, ETF total inflows have reached $2.72 billion, setting a record high for a single month since 2026. Institutional buying provides solid bottom support for BTC.
However, both technical and macro factors face critical tests. The 365-day moving average at $83,000 is labeled by many analysts as the "ultimate resistance" and the "bull market lifeline"—BTC must close above this level on the daily chart to confirm a trend reversal. The first support lies between $78,000 and $78,500, with strong support at $76,000-$76,500. More worrisome is that the Fear and Greed Index has climbed to the "extreme greed" zone of 80-83, which historically often signals short-term overheating.
At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. July PCE inflation data will be released, followed by Nvidia's earnings report. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will deliver his first keynote speech at Jackson Hole since taking office. These three events will directly set the tone for September's interest rate expectations, potentially causing sharp volatility.
Summary: After a technical rejection at $81,000, BTC retraced to $79,000, essentially a natural correction following a short squeeze. Continued ETF inflows provide bottom support, but $83,000 remains the "ultimate touchstone" deciding bull or bear market. Investors are advised to strictly control positions, avoid chasing with high leverage, and closely monitor the $78,000 support and PCE data results.Since June, Bitcoin has risen from 60,000 to 80,000, and ETH has also increased from 1,500 to around 2,600. The rapid surge a few days ago ignited the market, but with the subsequent volatility and pullback, many have started to feel anxious: Is this rally over? Is there still hope for a bull market?
I believe there is no need to rely on hype or recharge faith; let's look directly from first principles.
Prices fluctuate around value in the long term; value acts like gravity, ultimately pulling prices back. Now, with the U.S. government embracing blockchain, financial assets continuously being tokenized, stablecoin market size surpassing $300 billion, ongoing developments in stock tokenization, Bitcoin strategic reserves, and RWA, a continuously growing industry naturally increases the probability of long-term price appreciation.
What truly determines when a bull market starts is liquidity.
Looking back at several key points: October 2023 saw rising expectations of rate cuts; September 2024 had a 50 basis point rate cut; April 2025 marked the market beginning to price in multiple rate cuts in the second half of the year. Narratives determine capital flow direction, liquidity determines the total capital amount. ETFs, elections, strategic reserves all act as routers for funds, but without liquidity, even the best narratives struggle to drive a full bull market.
Therefore, rather than worrying about whether the bull market will come, focus on liquidity improvement.
For example, crude oil prices. If oil prices continue to fall, inflation pressure decreases, rate cut expectations strengthen, liquidity improves, which could ultimately trigger a new major upward wave.
So, don’t pay too much attention to short-term volatility.
The clearer the liquidity improvement, the stronger the bull market is likely to be. 📊ETF continues to see net inflows, but the market hasn't taken off accordingly?
Bitcoin spot ETFs have maintained net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days. On August 25th alone, they attracted another $314 million, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $284 million, nearly capturing the vast majority of that day's inflows.
Many see these impressive numbers and instinctively conclude: institutions are entering, and a price rally is imminent.
But I think we can't simply equate the two.
More critical than the raw inflow numbers is whether the capital flow resonates with the price action.
ETF funds represent institutional long-term allocation intentions, which does not equal short-term price-pumping orders. Institutions buying through ETFs are more about phased positioning and asset allocation, and may not immediately trigger a violent surge in the spot market.
If inflows come only through the ETF channel alone, without corresponding increases in spot trading volume, on-chain active buying, and overall market risk sentiment, a divergence will appear where "capital data looks great, but prices oscillate stubbornly at highs."
For the market to enter a new upward trend, it cannot rely solely on ETF inflows. It requires additional off-exchange inflows, spot buying, and a supportive macro environment working together so that capital and price form positive resonance, increasing the certainty of an uptrend.
Currently, the market is oscillating at high levels. Do not aggressively chase highs based on a single capital data point; patiently wait for signal confirmation. The "Fear and Greed Index" tracked by CoinMarketCap surged through the 80 mark yesterday (August 25), soaring to 81, officially announcing the market has entered an "extreme greed" state—the first time since the bull market peaks at the end of 2024. This is the only recorded move where the price jumped directly from "extreme fear" to "extreme greed." What does this unprecedented sentiment reversal really mean? After half a year of bull and bear markets, who is behind it? Remember February this year? The market was in a wail. The index fell to 5, comparable to the despair during the FTX collapse in 2022. The source of the panic at the time did not come from within the crypto world, but from a black swan of macro and geopolitics—rumors circulated that Trump might take military action against Iran, triggering a surge in oil prices and inflation expectations, making Fed rate cuts unlikely, and causing tech stocks and cryptocurrencies to plummet. Bitcoin was once smashed from its high during the panic. However, just six months later, the situation took a 180-degree turn. The current wave of greed is driven by the simplest yet most brutal logic: price. Just yesterday, Bitcoin posted a strong bullish candle, strongly reclaiming the $80,000 mark, with an intraday high reaching $81,270. Bears were complaining bitterly; overnight, over 90,000 people across the internet were liquidated, with liquidations reaching $650 million. Is 81 a top alert or an acceleration signal? Historically, the signal of "extreme greed" is like a cunning riddle, sometimes signaling risk, sometimes endorsing trends. Bears say: this is the signal light for "breaking the top." Don't forget 20Quantitative giants are massively increasing their positions amid a 36% short-term high-level pullback, creating a divergence in funds for $SNDK amid a sharp drop before the landing of data and backed by a multi-billion dollar long-term contract.
The market shows that the 36% high-level pullback after a year of strong gains triggered short-term fund selling, and the approximately 2% pre-market decline reflects traders' defensive sentiment before the data release. In terms of driving factors, institutional heavy lock-up effects rank first, followed by the certainty of earnings with data center revenue up 437% year-over-year to $5.15 billion, and lastly short-term chip turnover.
Jane Street increased its holdings by 540% to 7.41 million shares (5.47% of the float), locking in about $9 billion in market value, directly suppressing effective selling pressure on the float. Eight long-term supply agreements with an unfulfilled amount of $91.1 billion provide medium- to long-term support for valuation.
The bullish scenario requires volume expansion after the open to recover the pre-market 2% decline. If the bulls can hold key levels accordingly, funds will continue to attempt to push higher along the earnings logic of data center shipment proportion rising from 12% to 38%. The invalidation signal for this scenario is a rebound without volume that quickly loses the previous low.
The bearish scenario triggers if selling pressure intensifies after the data release, with intraday stampede amplifying profit-taking and closing pressure. If high-level profit chips accelerate their exit, the price will seek a new support range downward. The invalidation signal for this scenario is encountering massive buy orders during the decline.
If bullish and bearish forces balance at high levels, the trend will turn into wide-range oscillation. The $9 billion institutional holding cost intertwined with short-term fund profit-taking needs leads to expanded intraday volatility.
The most important variable to observe in the next 24 hours is the volume performance at the moment of data release after the open and whether the pre-market 2% decline can be quickly recovered.
#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期South Korean memory chip stocks showed a clear surge followed by a pullback today.
SK Hynix: surged over 3% intraday but ended up rising only about 0.6%. Samsung Electronics: also surged over 3% intraday, but the closing gain narrowed to 1.75%. KOSPI: still ended up rising 0.97%, indicating that the pullback was mainly concentrated in the memory chip leaders rather than a weakening of the entire South Korean market.
Why the pullback near the close?
1. Profit-taking at high levels is the most direct factor
SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have recently experienced significant gains, with AI memory, HBM, and memory price hike logic fully priced in by the market. After continuing to surge intraday today, short-term funds chose to lock in profits.
2. The market is starting to worry that "memory price hike expectations" are too high
Recently, global memory stocks have shown significantly increased volatility, and the market has begun discussing the sustainability of DRAM and NAND price increases and the risk of prices peaking in Q4. If the price increase slows down, it means the market’s previously high profit expectations for memory companies may need to be repriced.
3. SK Hynix itself still faces labor negotiations disruption
SK Hynix’s union recently rejected a temporary wage agreement by a very close vote, requiring both sides to renegotiate. Although this has limited impact on fundamentals, it can easily become a reason for short-term funds to reduce positions when the stock price is high.
4. Samsung Electronics’ previous sharp drop left valuation pressure
Samsung plunged on the 24th due to a shareholder return plan below market expectations, indicating that the market’s demands for South Korea’s memory leaders have risen from "performance growth" to "outperformance growth + shareholder returns." US GDP just released: Q2 growth at 1.5%!
Market expectations were also 1.5%, exactly on target.
What does this mean?
At least for now, the US economy hasn't suddenly stalled; the GDP data itself is fairly neutral, making it difficult to create new one-sided catalysts for US Treasuries, the dollar, and risk assets.
What really has the market frowning is tonight's hotter-than-expected PCE.
The current macro environment is quite interesting:
The economy hasn't collapsed, but inflation hasn't fully come down yet.
This is the Fed's biggest headache.
If the economy continues to show resilience and inflation remains more stubborn than expected, then the market's previous optimistic expectations for rate cuts can easily be revised.
So tonight, no GDP shock means the market can breathe a little easier.
But for BTC, what truly determines the next move is no longer GDP, but how the Fed interprets this hotter inflation data.
Especially the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday—what signals Warsh sends out are very critical.
Dovish signals = improved liquidity expectations, giving BTC a chance to continue rising.
Hawkish signals = cooling rate cut expectations, strengthening the dollar and US Treasury yields, so BTC should be cautious of a rally followed by a pullback.
GDP just stabilized the baseline; PCE is the real test.
Next, it depends on how the Fed handles this ball. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $BTC Tonight's contract open interest anomaly list hides two completely opposite signals, worth breaking down. 📊 Data (snapshot as of today 21:12): BICO perpetual open interest increased by 58.1% in 24h, price rose 18.36%, but the funding rate is -0.5842%, with negative depth. In plain language: the price is rising, but shorts are crowded together — a significant part of this rally is forced liquidations of shorts being "squeezed" out, not active bullish buying. NET is exactly the opposite: open interest increased by 91.8%, nearly doubled, but the price fell 2.81%, and the funding rate is as high as +0.0783%. Increasing open interest while price falls indicates that the longs are adding positions against the trend, and such a high funding rate means they are already crowded — this is a typical early sign of a long trap, and a further drop will fuel a chain of forced liquidations. 🔍 My judgment: As long as BICO's funding rate remains deeply negative, the squeeze fuel remains, and short-term continuation is more likely than reversal; for NET, the "increased open interest + price drop + high funding rate" combination means the long positions are liabilities, not support, and breaking today's low will likely accelerate the decline. Failure conditions clearly stated: BICO's funding rate returns above 0 and price stagnates, the squeeze ends; NET recovers all today's losses, judgment is wrong. Although both have increased open interest, the direction of funding rates differs, making their quality worlds apart. ⚠️ Risk warning: The above content is only personal opinion and data sharing, not any investment advice. The market has risks, invest cautiously. #BICO# #NET# #DataAnalysis# BTC breakoutTonight is Nvidia's earnings night. Besides watching Blackwell's volume, I'm more focused on two things: CPUs and those guarantees. Raymond James just raised the target price from 330 to 352, still a strong buy. However, this 352 is actually only mid-to-high level on Wall Street—Baird directly gave 500, Evercore 413, BofA 350, consensus among 17 institutions is only 317, and the lowest, Deutsche Bank at 255, still holds. There's quite a bit of divergence. Why is everyone suddenly talking about CPUs? Now with AI inference, especially agent-based AI, CPUs are responsible for scheduling, connecting, and coordinating. Whether GPUs can run at full capacity increasingly depends on the efficiency of the entire system. Analysts' logic is: Nvidia's CPU currently accounts for about 3% of total revenue, but its growth rate is the fastest in the model, expected to reach about 5% by 2028, even claiming "a chance to become the world's number one CPU revenue source within a few years." Jensen Huang also said this is a 200 billion level opportunity, and the CFO more directly stated the goal to become the world's leading CPU supplier. But I have to raise a question. Server CPUs have always been Intel and AMD's territory, with Intel's share once exceeding 70%, and the software ecosystem and migration costs firmly in x86's hands. Nvidia wanting to reign is not that easy. Vera seems more like a dedicated CPU for AI factory scenarios, grabbing incremental growth and system binding, rather than overturning Intel overnight. Valuation is also controversial. Some say "not expensive," with a GAAP P/E ratio under 15 based on 2027 earnings, compared to the standard"Core PCE Holds at 3.3% and US Treasury Yield at 4.635%: Liquidity Battle Ahead of the Jackson Hole Debut"
The US core PCE price index for July recorded a year-over-year rate of 3.3%, with inflation still sticking above 3%.
On OKX, BTC just touched the $80,000 mark but quickly reversed, briefly dropping below $78,000.
CME data shows the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has dropped to zero, while the chance of maintaining the current rate has risen to 65.4%.
The 10-year US Treasury yield remains steady at a high of 4.635%, whereas crypto lending costs generally range between 6% and 8%.
In the absence of cheap dollar liquidity, market makers and high-level funds are choosing to close long positions in bulk at the $80,000 level to lock in profits. $BTC The leading domestic large model MINIMAX has released its financial report for the first half of 2026, with revenue reaching $117 million, a year-on-year surge of 283%, and gross profit exceeding $20.81 million, soaring 464%. Native products like Conch AI doubled their revenue to $42.6 million, while losses narrowed by 11% to $358 million during the same period.
This financial report lays bare the most authentic side of China's AI unicorns.
The most positive signal is that the gross profit growth rate far exceeds the revenue growth rate. The market has long worried that large models would fall into a vicious cycle of buying computing power at a loss as charity, but MiniMax's 464% surge in gross profit indicates that through self-developed architecture cost reduction and inference efficiency optimization, the commercial conversion per Token is running with positive leverage, and the unit economics model has substantially improved.
However, behind the prosperity still hangs a huge cost challenge. A half-year loss of $358 million means that for every $1 earned, about $3 in net loss must still be borne. Cutting-edge multimodal pretraining and computing infrastructure continue to rapidly consume funds. Although Conch AI and other popular consumer-end products have supported a basic cash flow of $42.6 million, proving users' genuine willingness to pay, the window for turning cash flow positive remains very tight in the face of the next-generation frontier model R&D arms race.
Moving from simply competing on parameters to competing on gross margin and consumer-end monetization, MiniMax is validating a commercialization path different from Silicon Valley giants.
Do you believe that consumer-end products like Conch AI can continuously generate cash flow to support billions in R&D, or do you think AI companies ultimately have to rely on large government and enterprise B2B contracts to succeed? Account Position Divergence Radar
Both are bullish, but having more accounts and heavier positions are not the same thing; the difference is shown in this chart.
$DOGE account direction is bullish, while top holders' positions are bearish; the side with more people is temporarily not the side with heavier top positions. Price and positions are both declining, and position retreat is a more certain factor than directional attribution. To resolve the divergence, top holders' positions need to increase rather than just relying on the continued growth in account numbers.
$SUI shows misalignment between long-short ratios; the number of people, top accounts, and top positions cannot yet be combined into a single conclusion. The decline has not led to position expansion; first, observe when the risk exposure contraction slows down. Next, watch which account metric changes continuously first and is confirmed by price and open interest.
$SNDK account count metrics consistently show bullishness, but the top holders' position ratio remains below 1, so the numerical advantage has not turned into a top position advantage. The downward move was not accompanied by position withdrawals; new positions make this volatility more concerning. The account side is already bullish; next, it depends on whether top positions are willing to concentrate their weight on the same side. $USAR is around $19.90 pre-market today, up +2.5%, and the catalysts are still ongoing: the company officially disclosed on August 24 that the Serra Verde-related SPV completed a $1.55B government-backed capital arrangement; there is also a shareholder vote on this clear event window this Friday. The company's official 8-K/announcement confirms the financing and M&A progress, not just media hype.
Additionally, today's Reuters rare earth industry news continues to strengthen the logic of the US and allies building non-Chinese supply chains, so the USAR sector catalysts have not disappeared.
But I will not chase at $19.90. My execution conditions remain: consider entering 20U after USAR pulls back and stabilizes around $19.20–19.55; or after breaking through $20.10 and then pulling back to $19.80–20.00 without breaking below before entering. Holding is expected for 1–3 days, with the first target at $20.8–21.5 (about +5%–10%); if it falls below $18.70 and cannot quickly recover, the logic fails. Before truly buying, it is necessary to confirm that Agentic Wallet's 20U round-trip quote is ≤0.25%. Today's pre-market price and event window are also confirmed by the latest market data.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $xNVDA Nvidia Earnings Tomorrow Morning: A Quarter with Nearly 100 Billion in Revenue, Why Is It the Hardest to Make Money?
Last night NVDA closed at $213.05, +2.19%, with a market cap of $5.16 trillion, unusually quiet. The VIX is hovering at a yearly low, and everyone is waiting for the FY27Q2 earnings report early tomorrow morning Beijing time.
1. Expectations are high. Consensus revenue is $92B, up 96% year-over-year; data center revenue is $85.7B, up 107% year-over-year; adjusted EPS is $2.09; gross margin is 75%. Jefferies even raised the estimate to $95B, saying this could be the largest revenue beat in history.
2. The surprise is in the devaluation. Options are only pricing in ±5.4% volatility after the earnings, while the average over the past 12 quarters is 7.4%. The market has already priced in the upside. More painfully: after several quarters of large beats, the stock price often pulls back within 30 days. With nine consecutive quarters of beats, the issue has never been the performance but how much is priced in.
3. The key is in the guidance. The current quarter's numbers are not important; the Q3 guidance in the earnings call is: consensus $103.7B. Focus on three details: Rubin's ramp-up pace (institutions expect Q3 to account for 12% of GPU revenue, Q4 to exceed 40%); the 75% gross margin defense line (cost pressures are rising); China revenue has been excluded from guidance, so any export licenses granted would be free upside. On-chain data has once again drawn market attention back to that political meme that naturally brings traffic. Addresses associated with $TRUMP continue to reduce their holdings, with about 2.7 million tokens remaining, which could become a new source of selling at any time. This number isn't huge, but in the current fragile recovery market, it feels like a small cloud hanging overhead, making every rebound feel cautious. On the price side, $TRUMP repeatedly fluctuates around $2.469, with short-term moving averages consistently suppressing the trend. Every attempt to rebound triggers new selling pressure. This "stagnant rise" state essentially reflects how market funds price event risks—it's not that people disagree with meme narratives, but that the tokens unlocked by related addresses might first impact the market through supply inflation, further suppressing the sector's risk appetite. What deserves even more attention is the divergence in capital. $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, $APR, all belonging to the same narrative lineage, have recently received new capital support, even breaking through the twelve-month consolidation bottom range. However, $TRUMP was absent from this recovery wave, indicating capital is reprioritizing from "story-driven" to "practical." When the high volatility of political memes begins to erode confidence, infrastructure projects with real business support are more likely to enter the view of medium- to long-term capital. A typical beneficiary of this sentiment shift is the decentralized storage sector.The whale who built a position in $ETH during the last bull market is suspected to have liquidated to stop losses, suffering a loss of $10.58 million after holding for over two years 🥹
Two addresses suspected to belong to the same whale/entity deposited a total of 6,503.69 ETH worth $15.94 million to exchanges 2 hours ago; after this deposit, the on-chain ETH is suspected to be fully liquidated, with expected losses exceeding $10 million
▶︎ Address 0x034…F553A: Built position of 9,891 ETH at $3,219.35 on 2024.02-06
▶︎ Address 0x908…8E7cB: Built position of 1,612.43 ETH at $2,523.43 on 2024.06-08The data for the US came out ambiguous, BUT for the Fed and risky assets, the main signal is rather negative. Inflation was slightly higher than expected amid a slowdown in the economy. The main figures: - core price index of personal consumption expenditures, y/y - 3.3%, as expected; - core price index of personal consumption expenditures, m/m - 0.2%, forecast 0.2%, previously 0.1%; - general price index of personal consumption expenditures, m/m - 0.2% against the forecast of 0.1%, previously 0.3%; - general price index of expenditures per lMacro Data and Jackson Hole Annual Meeting Market Outlook Analysis
1. Interpretation of PCE Price Index Data
The latest core PCE price index data has been officially released, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. From the market expectation perspective, this data aligns with the market's prior consensus and does not show a significant deviation or surprise. However, a detailed look at marginal data reveals that overall inflation resilience is slightly higher than the market anticipated.
This data performance indicates that the current pace of inflation decline has not accelerated or slowed down significantly; core inflation remains sticky, completely dispelling the market's short-term aggressive rate cut trading expectations.
2. Personal Prediction on Policy Direction at This Annual Meeting
Combining the current Federal Reserve core officials' policy philosophy and past statements, my personal judgment is that Waller will likely release a hawkish monetary policy signal at this Jackson Hole annual meeting.
His overall policy thinking and regulatory logic deeply inherit Greenspan's monetary policy framework, favoring a cautious approach to controlling inflation and prioritizing stabilizing the fundamental price level. Based on this style characteristic, the market is highly focused on the subsequent policy rhythm: whether the Federal Reserve will replicate the Greenspan era's classic approach of maintaining high interest rates first, even raising rates in phases to consolidate anti-inflation achievements, and then choosing the right time to start a rate-cutting cycle.
At present, the stickiness of inflation combined with hawkish policy expectations makes the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction uncertain for the rest of the year and even the fourth quarter. It also plants a key variable for the future global liquidity tightening and easing rhythm. The details of the speeches at this annual meeting will become the core basis for short-term market long-short battles.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 This is actually the stage I most want to see right now. Up to now, $BTC pulled back to around $78,000–79,000, yesterday peaked near $81,200, still up more than 23% over 7 days. So this isn't a trend break, but the first real breakout and turnover. And this pullback is actually crucial: start near $63K → $70K breakout → $76K break → $80K break → peak $81K+ → now return to $79K to digest profit-taking. So I actually don't want BTC to pull another big bullish candlestick soon. I prefer to see: $78K–80K sideways with → ETFs continuing to flow in→ bears no longer the main driver; → ETH keeps running → altcoins continue to spread, because a significant portion of the previous rally came from short liquidations + capital returns; Now, a large portion of the bears has been squeezed out, and if prices continue to rise, real spot buying must take over. Currently, this signal is actually quite good. Last week, the net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs was about $1.92 billion, and cumulative ETF inflows in August have exceeded $3 billion, indicating institutional funds have indeed returned. But on the other hand, another signal to watch has emerged: ETH's funding rate has risen to a one-year high. This means the market is betting heavily on ETH to keep rising, and leveraged bulls are increasing. So the current market is slowly shifting from "no one dares to buy" to: "big."$KO KO｜In the AI volatile market, certainty assets are gaining a premium🔥
1. Price Performance: KO hit a new intraday high of $92.49, with a year-to-date increase of over 31.5%. The current P/E ratio is 27.65. During the sharp correction in the AI sector, KO has shown an independent slow bull trend, becoming a market safe-haven choice.
2. Institutional Holdings Confirmation: Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 2026 holdings disclosure shows KO accounts for 10.86% of the portfolio, ranking as the third largest holding, serving as a core defensive ballast in the investment portfolio.
3. Consumer Scenario Extension Benefits: The summer "ice freedom" trend drives strong sales of ice-making appliances. Interestingly, KO has entered the home ice maker market, integrating beverage consumption scenarios and expanding brand monetization channels.
4. Macro Timing Window: This week, NVDA is about to release earnings, PCE inflation data will be published, and the Jackson Hole annual meeting is approaching. Global tech stocks are likely to experience increased volatility, with funds possibly continuing to flow toward cash flow-stable, dividend-steady essential consumer defensive stocks.
Compared to the strong cyclical nature of computing hardware like NVDA, MU, SKHY, KO relies on its brand moat, stable free cash flow, and 64 consecutive years of dividend increases to earn compound returns that transcend cycles.
Valuation-wise, it should be noted that the current valuation is already above the industry average, and whether the positive momentum can continue requires verification from Q3 earnings data.The snowball of self-developed chips is rolling over storage giants
$OPENAI's self-developed inference chip Jalapeno is deployed, with energy efficiency 1.5-1.9 times that of the comparison system, latency reduced by 1.7-3.6 times, and inference costs cut in half
$XIAOMI launches three self-developed chips simultaneously, covering mobile phones, AI, and intelligent driving, to be commercialized next year.
Leading players are all developing their own chips.
The business that used to rely on HBM monopoly for easy profits is being dismantled bit by bit by customers. The bargaining power for general memory is declining, and profit margins will only get thinner.
This trend will not reverse.📉
#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键 $KO ⚠️ NVDA, MU, SKHY: Key hardware suppliers in the AI supply chain. They can surge dramatically in an AI capital‑expenditure upcycle. However, their profits are highly cyclical. Continuous heavy spending on R&D and fabs is required to stay competitive. Once AI investment cools off, inventory buildup and price drops squeeze margins, triggering earnings‑valuation double dips. Cycle‑independent secular growth is rare for these chip stocks.The long-term narrative of AI chips hasn't changed, but in the short term, it's being crushed by soaring bond yields. This kind of misjudgment often breeds opportunities, but don't rush to catch the knife. Outline of this article – 🔄 What's happening in this sector – ⚙️ What's driving it – 📊 Representing the target – 🎯 How to participate, how to defend 1. What's happening 🔄 in this sector Today, chip stocks collectively took a hit: $QQQ fell 1.7%, $SPY only fell 0.63%, with funds withdrawing from high-beta growth sectors. In chip tokens, $SKHYNIX fell 9.2% in a single day, $SNDK fell 8.1%, but trading volumes surged to 420 million and 3.21 billion respectively, with heavy volume dropping and panic sellers fleeing. This isn't a collapse in fundamentals, but rather valuation compression triggered by soaring bond yields. The VIX Fear Index rose 4.35% to 15.84. The market is starting to tense, but not yet in extreme panic. The gears of sector rotation are turning: money is flowing out of high-valuation AI chips, seeking safe havens. 2. What is ⚙️ the driving force? On the surface, it seems to be caused by the surge in bond yields. Long-term government bond yields have soared to decades-high levels, making future cash flow discounts for growth stocks even less valuable. Chip stocks are typical "long-duration" assets, extremely sensitive to interest rates, so when bond anxiety hits, they fall first. But the real industry driver remains unchanged: AI large model training still has explosive demand for GPU and HBM storage, and TSMC and SK Hynix keep high capacity utilization. In the short term, it's a cash flow saw in the short term; in the long term, it's a computing power arms raceDon't rush into AI hardware just yet. The market is still waiting for NVDA's earnings report.
Semiconductors aren't cooperating enough right now; NVDA's after-hours earnings are holding back, and SMH/SOXX haven't shown any clear proactive moves.
Money is clearer on the trading platform/crypto side. BTC is still near the highs, and HOOD, COIN, MSTR, and mining stocks were all strong yesterday. HOOD continues to see capital pre-market, and IBKR is following suit. This indicates the market isn't just buying a single crypto leader but is spreading out trading activity.
Priority is on $HOOD. Its position is best if it can hold 108-110 after the open, then watch for a second confirmation above 112.5. If it falls back below 106, it means the high open is being cashed out—cut it immediately.
Second to watch is $IBKR. It's not the most emotionally charged, but it's on the same line as HOOD, suitable for observing diffusion. If it can hold around 98 at the open without volume shrinking, it's interesting. If it falls below 96, don't force it.
Regular observation includes $NVDA, $META, and $MSTR. NVDA needs real capital inflow before earnings, META is event recovery, and MSTR only confirms crypto-related strength if BTC and HOOD/COIN remain stable.
Today, focus first on HOOD/IBKR. Wait for SMH/SOXX to turn strong again after the open before considering AI hardware. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #OpenAI Q2 revenue $6.7 billion, losses widen
$PI
Something interesting happened today: BofA said ASML is undervalued, and MINIMAX's Hong Kong stock revenue surged 283% in the first half of the year. It seems the AI story still has buyers in traditional markets. The market's first reaction was a rebound in tech stock sentiment, but crypto remained quite calm; BTC was quiet, and PI just hovered slightly around 0.09. The reason I think this is worth discussing is that once AI capital expenditure expectations are repriced, risk appetite will gradually seep from US stocks into the crypto space, which is the real fuel needed for altcoin season.
The reasoning goes roughly like this: ASML being endorsed means semiconductor demand hasn't collapsed, and money is still flowing into AI infrastructure; MINIMAX narrowing losses and greatly increasing gross profit means AI application layers are starting to have viable business models. Capital usually first buys high-certainty US tech stocks, then overflows into BTC as a liquidity carrier, and finally reaches smaller liquidity assets like the SOL ecosystem and PI. Today's +0.70% for PI seems more like following the broader market's sentiment rather than starting an independent rally.$KO KO VS NVDA, MU, SKHY Logical Comparison 💡
Combined with Berkshire's 2026 Q2 holdings, KO's position is 10.86%, serving as the portfolio's ballast.
▪️ KO: Essential consumer sector, with perpetual and stable demand, low capital expenditure, stable cash flow, and consistent dividends. Earnings are almost unaffected by technological iterations, and the stock price relies on performance compounding to produce a long-term slow bull market, making it a typical safe-haven defensive asset.
▪️ NVDA (Nvidia), MU (Micron), SKHY (SK Hynix): Computing power and storage cyclical stocks. During the AI boom phase, earnings and stock price elasticity are very strong; however, they heavily depend on downstream computing capital expenditure, with high R&D and factory investment that cannot be interrupted, making them prone to significant corrections during cyclical downturns.
The trade-off between growth elasticity and cycle stability is also the current source of market pricing divergence. STX (Stacks) Bull Market Potential Projection
⚠️ Historical review and projection, not investment advice, altcoins are highly volatile
Background: STX is Bitcoin's native L2, focusing on Bitcoin ecosystem smart contracts; historical high of 3.83U; circulating supply about 1.81 billion, very low inflation, almost fully circulating, selling pressure comes from chip turnover rather than unlocking; highly tied to BTCFi sector heat.
Three scenarios (based on current price)
1. Pessimistic scenario (BTCFi narrative underperforms expectations, competition squeezes)
Multiplier: 3-5x
Trigger conditions: Overall bull market, but BTC L2 sector funds diverted, sBTC and ecosystem TVL growth average; STX underperforms mainstream altcoins.
Corresponds to: Bull market exists, but the sector does not become the market main theme.
2. Neutral scenario (BTCFi becomes an important branch, Stacks gains a considerable share)
Multiplier: 8-15x
Trigger conditions: Nakamoto upgrade dividend released, sBTC scale expands, Genesis Bond staking mechanism creates real STX demand; institutional funds allocate to Bitcoin ecosystem, STX gains beta dividend.
This is the mainstream market expectation range, aligned with STX's performance in the previous bull market.
3. Optimistic scenario (BTCFi explodes, Stacks becomes the absolute leader of BTC L2)
Multiplier: 20-30x
Trigger conditions: Large amounts of Bitcoin stock assets enter the Stacks ecosystem; STX becomes a must-have gas + staking bond target in the BTC ecosystem; the entire market speculates heavily on Bitcoin Layer 2 narrative.
Note: 30x is a low-probability event, requiring resonance of sector, macro, and product implementation, should not be taken as baseline expectation.
✅ Core bullish logic
1. Sector narrative dividend: BTCFi is a major trend, Bitcoin needs a smart contract layer, Stacks is the native BTC L2 leader, PoX directly anchors Bitcoin security, sBTC and Genesis Bond generate real STX lock-up demand.
2. Tokenomics advantage: Almost fully circulating, no large team unlock selling pressure; inflation decreases annually, stacking staking locks part of circulating chips.
3. Historical stock-like behavior: Previous bull market saw nearly 100x elasticity from bottom to peak, a strong cyclical altcoin with high bull market beta.
⚠️ Key risks suppressing upside (very important)
1. Intense sector competition: Core, RSK, and other Bitcoin L2s continuously compete; BTCFi sector is not only Stacks, funds will be diverted.
2. Buying expectations, selling facts: Nakamoto upgrade, sBTC, Genesis Bond are all narratives fully priced in by the market, implementation easily leads to profit-taking.
3. Ecosystem highly dependent on single DEX ALEX, overall TVL still small, real user base limited, fundamentals not fully proven.
4. Strong BTC correlation: When Bitcoin drops sharply, STX often falls more; bear market rebounds tend to spike and then fall quickly.
5. Consensus trap: BTC-L2 is now a well-known story market-wide, many retail holders, continuous off-exchange incremental funds needed to support, echoing your previous article's view: strong consensus does not equal easy trading.
Practical observation indicators (to judge if STX can break out of neutral/optimistic scenarios)
1. After sBTC and Genesis Bond launch, whether real STX lock-up volume continues to rise, not just speculative hype.
2. Whether Stacks ecosystem TVL continues to expand, not just supported by one DEX.
3. Whether overall BTCFi sector funds continue to flow in, not just short-term hype.
4. STX/BTC ratio, only sustained ratio increase means outperforming Bitcoin.
In summary: STX is a high-elasticity BTCFi asset, neutral 8-15x is a realistic bull market expectation; above 20x requires full sector explosion, a low-probability event; if sector funds are diverted, only 3-5x space likely. Biggest risk: narrative fully priced in early, benefits realized upon implementation.
$STX $BTC$KO Berkshire's Q2 2026 Holdings Disclosure📊
KO Coca-Cola position accounts for 10.86%, ranking as the third largest holding in the portfolio. Comparing KO with leading computing storage companies NVDA, MU, SKHY for long-term profitability and stock price logic, the fundamental differences between these two asset types are very clear:
✅ KO Coca-Cola (Consumer Staples)
1. Demand characteristics: A human beverage necessity, unaffected by technological innovation or iteration, with no risk of "product being replaced by new technology"; a century-old brand building a very strong moat, with a stable global market structure.
2. Profit characteristics: Stable performance with minimal volatility, abundant free cash flow; very low capital expenditure, no need for continuous heavy investment in R&D or new factories; 64 consecutive years of dividend increases, achieving long-term compounding through dividends.
3. Stock pricing logic: Earning stable, certain returns that transcend cycles; market trends are mostly slow bulls, with major rallies often occurring during market turmoil and heightened risk aversion.
⚡ NVDA Nvidia, MU Micron, SKHY Hynix (Semiconductors/Storage)
1. Demand characteristics: Demand depends on downstream tech industry cycles (AI computing power, server capital expenditure), industry prosperity is entirely driven by downstream capital spending; if AI expansion slows, demand contracts directly.
2. Profit characteristics: Typical strong cycle. Explosive profit growth in up cycles; inventory buildup and price drops in down cycles, causing rapid and significant profit declines. Requires continuous massive investment in R&D and wafer fab capital expenditure, with brutal technology iteration.