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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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根据目前伊朗与阿曼的公布的临时航道来看,很明显,伊朗在用实际行动来对霍尔木兹海峡进行监管与掌控 临时航道宽度约7海里≈13公里,按照此前8月4日的资料,入口大概率贴近阿曼海域,但是后续主要途径伊朗海域驶入,驶入由伊朗监管 驶出通过伊朗海域进入,途径阿曼海域驶出,由阿曼决定是否放行,但是需要通知伊朗,伊朗有知情权。 另外,以目前的消息来看,新的临时航道启用,意味着原本南部通道将要关闭,未来几个月的所有船只都要经过临时航道通过 其实整体来看,伊朗已经不在依赖政治上对海峡主权控制了,而是进入实际监管与掌控,这一点对美国是非常不利的,那么在什么条件下美国可以接受这个现实? #美扩大对伊制裁,海峡复航谈判推进
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
The US, Iran, and Russia are taking frequent actions, actively promoting favorable developments! 1. Iran revealed for the first time the specific structure of the temporary route. The new temporary corridor is 7 miles wide, with the direction entering the Persian Gulf passing through Iranian waters, and part of the route going out also passing through Iranian waters. The new route is basically under Iran's main control. 2. The U.S. has begun resuming the dispatch of Middle Eastern diplomatic personnel, allowing ambassadors and their families from Middle Eastern countries to return to the Middle East, effectively a military downgrade 3. Russian sources say the U.S. and Iran have reached a consensus on a ceasefire agreement. This information alone is not very credible, but combined with another piece of news, media reports say the CIA director secretly visited Russia yesterday, during which Ukraine temporarily halted attacks on Russia. Combining these two reports greatly increases the credibility of Russia's information. Next, it depends on the specific developments between the US and Iran. Phase Summary: The energy market has already accelerated pricing in the current positive dynamics, with international crude oil and U.S. crude oil further falling to key points. It will be interesting to see if the U.S. and Iran issue official statements to confirm Russia's statements It is worth mentioning that, according to data websites, although the situation has improved, yesterday's navigation data for the Strait of Hormuz remained less than ideal. The temporary straits between Iran and Oman are basically under Iran's main control, which may increase the difficulty for U.S. recognition and may continue to cause conflicts over the strait. #美扩大对伊制裁. Negotiations to resume navigation in the strait are progressing

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